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KostiaForexMart  
#801 Posted : Thursday, June 27, 2019 8:09:42 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 27, 2019

There was less volatility for the euro major pair in the past trading sessions. A significant fundamental report from the US may have an impact on the pair but the focus will be on the expected G20 summit.

Markets are hopeful that the China-US trade war will be subdued by the summit. The future movement of the dollar is important as the markets focus on the US monetary easing amid the sluggish economy and the existence of trade war.

The US data will not exactly move the trading pair but experts anticipate the GDP numbers to progress its annualized percent by 3.1%.

Other reports will probably not influence the movement of the pair such as the weekly unemployment claims report. To be safe, it is suggested to follow the trend. The initial two readings may be against the forecast and at the same time, there were higher revisions last week. Previously, the reading came out earlier than expected.

At the moment, I would look around the level of 1.1347, which shows a peak in early June and close to the 200-MA on both the daily and weekly charts. For the record, the pair has had three drops at this area.

The pair has to move above the level of 1.1400 in order to confirm the uptrend, although this has not happened so far as investors wait for the results of the G20 meeting. Moreover, the speeches of Fed members restrained the continuation of a decline. Hence, a driver is needed for a breakout around the range of 1.1385 and 1.1400, whilst the level of 1.1347 remains to be a psychologically important figure.
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KostiaForexMart  
#802 Posted : Monday, July 01, 2019 6:34:27 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 1, 2019

Volatility is present early this week following the previous range-bound trading of the various instruments in the market in the background of ongoing US-Sino trade talks. News on tariff and restriction to Huawei telecom company pushed the equity markets higher and pressured the dollar. Although, this may not last long.

Moreover, pessimistic forecasts of several fundamental data such as the Manufacturing PMI from European countries will further weigh on the common currency. This is in line with the global economic situation in China and Japan, as well as other Asian countries.

The euro major pair has made a significant breakdown today. Other major pairs also experienced such event as seems like a reversal in short-term. However, we should take note of the 200-MA, which is being tested by the US dollar index that could trigger the pair to decline.

Previously, the center of interest was on the fall of the pair at the level of 1.1347. Aside from it being the resistance level, it had a confluence on the 200-MA on the daily and weekly chart.

As for the support, there were several attempts until it broke down earlier this day, which can become the resistance level. Staying on the levels below could induce a correction to the pair and likely to rise higher than 1.1385, which will be favorable for the EUR/USD bulls.

For now, we can expect strong support at 1.1305 with confluence to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. Overall, the short-term gives a bearish tone and a breakout to 1.1385 would confirm the continuation of the previously bullish sentiment in the markets.
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KostiaForexMart  
#803 Posted : Tuesday, July 02, 2019 7:54:45 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 2, 2019

The euro major pair has been the top currency pair for the week so far. Also, the dollar is above the Swiss franc than other major currency pairs while it is not doing well for the Canadian dollar.

The EUR/USD decline for this week is mainly due to a stronger dollar, following the trade news between China and the US. Also, it seems that the Fed speeches have also limited the earlier rally of the pair in the second half of June.

Earlier this week, the pair is gaining a downward momentum and dropped below the significant confluence close to support of 1.1350, marking the 200-MA. At the same time, the US dollar index was found to have reached the 200-MA. This opens the opportunity to short the dollar but this is still not yet confirmed.

The next support level will probably at 1.1365 and gave a significant amount of resistance in the past. Over this area, there is a chance for testing the support level of 1.1237, where there is a lot of confluence and also likely to hold buyers. Nonetheless, the pair is far from plunging lower but we can rely on selling in times of rallies for short-term. The trend will likely go up and the present decline may offer an opportunity for a long trade.
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KostiaForexMart  
#804 Posted : Wednesday, July 03, 2019 8:36:14 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 3, 2019

This week began with a decline and the momentum of the EUR/USD pair may have lost. The pair closed on a flat after a failed rally higher than the level of 1.1300. The most recent news on the trade truce between the US and China is the root of strength for the dollar but this may not move steadily.

Another important factor is the gold prices as it moves relative to the economic developments in the US. The yellow metal almost broke down to fresh six year-high that could mean that the increase of the dollar may be almost over.

Today, data from ADP on employment is expected which will give a hint on the US labor market. Thursday is a holiday and this can bring volatility after the closing of the European session.

The indicator was seen at the level of 1.1260 and close to the 100-MA. A strong confluence is possible around 1.1265, which can become resistance and was the peak in the month of May. This kept the pair lower after a few tries and was successfully broken at the beginning of June.

Reaching the level upward to 1.1300 can become difficult. A horizontal level can be at 1.1305 on the daily chart. However, looking at it, a steady move to 1.1300 is needed by bulls.

On the other end, a breakdown lower than the support confluence with the next target at the horizontal level of 1.1237, which is also where the rising channel moves downward since the low level in May.

Nonetheless, the US jobs data to be released today and on Friday may cause a bullish reversal. At the same time, trading may be thin given that tomorrow is a holiday.
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KostiaForexMart  
#805 Posted : Thursday, July 04, 2019 8:06:37 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 4, 2019

The EUR/USD pair may move close to the bottom and the present bounce off is due to the trade talks between China and the US on the weekend. In turn, this resulted in a correlation across the financial markets.

The 10-year Treasury yields rallied from 2% while gold prices dropped lower than $1400 following a breakout in the previous week. The equity market is under pressure given that the S&P 500 drops from the resistance on the longer timeframe. It is not surprising that the dollar index bounced off more than the 200-DMA.

A divergence between the dollar and other trading instruments has important in considering the trading since the dollar has not undergone a reversal like other assets. Yet, it is also not that logical to expect the euro major pair will further go down present the given fundamental event even looking at how aggressive the market sets in easing in July. Nonetheless, the pair seems to have been trading for just about 1.5% from the multi-year lows.

There is significant confluence in the support close to the trading area which is at the 100-MA and the lower bound channel at 1.1264.

Bull traders will meet an obstruction at 1.1305, which pushed the pair lower yesterday.

The data of NFP on Friday will bring in some volatility to the pair. For now, the pair will likely to continue in consolidating within the range. Support is expected to be close to 1.1264 and the markets are probably not assured with the short-term trade war truce.
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KostiaForexMart  
#806 Posted : Friday, July 05, 2019 8:04:54 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 5, 2019

Analysts are looking hoping for growth in the labor market after it failed to meet expectations of previous month’s reading. The job report for today will determine the course of the Fed in July since the strength of labor will have a significant role in the action of Fed. Hence, an exceeding report can result for an easing or the other way around.

The Euro major pair is in the important situation prior to the release of the jobs report given that there is downward confluence on the support. For the past couple of days, the pair was seen consolidating above.

In particular, there is a horizontal level at 1.1264, which held the pair twice below in May. The 100-MA was close around this area enough for a confluence.

Furthermore, there is a support as it bounces below in the rising channel from previous lows in late May. Moreover, there is a 61.8% retracement found from middle of June lows, as well in the 50% retracement from May lows close to the level of 1.1264.


Given the confluence below on the support level, the results for NFP data has to come out with positive results in order for the EUR/USD pair to close below. The data will have a major impact on short-term trend. Yet, the resistance above keeps the pair lower at the beginning of the week. A bullish breakout will confirm the beginning of trend reversal.
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KostiaForexMart  
#807 Posted : Tuesday, July 09, 2019 8:24:29 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 9, 2019

The US dollar’s performance surpassed expectations at the beginning of the week as it pushes the price to lows not since the middle of June. When the rate cut is revised, this may being a surge in the pair.

Yesterday, the psychological level is at 1.1888, which was both a support and resistance in the past. Recently, the level was kept higher in the month of June. The pair tried to approach the level early this morning and even look for a breakout below for a short while. It could prompt stops below the mid-level low in June.

If the breakout holds, the next target for support will likely be around 1.1135. The major support is centered at 1.1188. However, this have minimal chances before the Fed rhetoric, which is anticipated to influence the movement of the pair in the next few days. At the same time, this will confirm the positioning of the central bank. Overall, it is important to be heedful in trading given this background.
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KostiaForexMart  
#808 Posted : Friday, July 12, 2019 8:50:57 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 12, 2019

Forecast for consumer prices shows a higher increase in June. The most recent report showed a growth of 0.1 for the month CPI and 0.3% for the Core CPI. Overall, the figures have exceeded expectations.

Rising inflation may affect the rally of the euro major pair given that the weaker dollar was driven this week by expectations on monetary policy easing.

The dollar index (DXY) dropped more than half of the percent from the most recent high amid the rhetorics of Powell. On yesterday’s CPI data, the index rose and was able to close unchanged.

A Doji pattern was also seen on the euro major pair, which shows some exhaustion. This follows the possibility that the CPI data may hinder the upward movement of the pair, at least for short-term. Along with the Doji pattern, the pair closed below the 100-MA and was unsuccessful to break higher than the indicator, which will not be favorable for the bulls. As of the moment, the price is trading beyond it. The upward movement seems to be limited by the resistance of 1.1265 so far.

The pair has to maintain a breakthrough above 1.1280 in order to confirm the ascending movement here. This will negatively affect yesterday’s exhaustion candle. On the other end, if the pair closes once again below the 100-MA, traders can expect for the weakened state at the beginning of next week.

It may not be easy to continue the recovery of the pair but as stated, there is some strong resistance at 1.1305on the 4-hour chart and be limited around 1.1265. There is also a chance for the pair to retreat to the horizontal level of 1.1237 below.

There is a minimal chance for the euro major pair to recover in the background of a few fundamental news and technical limitations to limit the pair's move to go higher. The pair is also likely to close in relation to the 100-MA, which would have a big impact on next week’s trading.
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KostiaForexMart  
#809 Posted : Tuesday, July 16, 2019 8:35:58 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 16, 2019

Looking back at what happened last week, the dollar had gone weaker after Fed chair became more dovish than anticipated. However, with the presence of resistance on the upside and range support, the EUR/USD pair could stay range-bound.

Nonetheless, the market will monitor the upcoming data to assess the probability of Fed easing at the end of the month. The highest impact will probably be the initial release of the second quarter of GDP. Hence, the momentum in the euro and other currency pairs paired with greenback will probably slow down.

As we can see, the impact of Powell rhetorics will probably lessen this week, considering that the future markets will prepare to set the price after aggressive easing at the end of the month. Meanwhile, the likelihood of rate cut by 50 basis points grew to 3 from 1.

The euro major pair was previously seen testing the confluence of support at 1.1237 and the 50-MA.

It seems that there is a lot of trading at the start of this week. However, it less likely to break lower and at the same time, thinking that the top resistance is opposing the dollar index.

Overall, volatility may be a bit slow prior to the release of data, which will have a say to the chances of a rate cut. In the short-term, a rally is probable at 1.1265 with the presence of sellers.
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KostiaForexMart  
#810 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2019 8:44:17 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 17, 2019

Markets are still not sure on how the Fed will be on the next meeting scheduled at the end of the month. Rhetorics from Fed member, Evans has triggered a deep decline last week by half a percent at the end of the year. Investors are following the data releases closely, concerned by the possibility of the ECB to follow the Fed in monetary easing.

Yesterday, the euro major pair dropped below the support of 1.1237. Consequently, the pair broke to the range which was sustained for almost a week. The fall of the trend opened the path to the psychological handle of 1.1200 and further below seems attractive.

The support of 1.1188 remained higher in the middle of June, which then resulted to a rally above 1.1400. In turn, this will be the border limit for the EUR/USD bulls.

In the short-term, traders will likely to meet resistance to the level of 1.1237, which was the lower border in the previous range. It may push the pair above 1.1265 to make it attractive for bulls. After a break in the range, bears have taken over for short-period of time.

After the inflation headline, the euro major pair rose slightly from support with an upward resistance met at 1.1237 as mentioned earlier. The next downward level will probably 1.1188 to be significant.
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KostiaForexMart  
#811 Posted : Thursday, July 18, 2019 8:33:13 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 18, 2019

A weakened dollar influenced a recovery rally from the euro major pair. With the market expected to have an aggressive easing, it seems that the push is not likely to reach a higher break.

Moreover, we have to keep in mind the bullish engulfing candle in DXY following optimistic retail sales on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar index declines for the second successive trading hours after the sharp increase of retail sales.

The EUR/USD pair tests the horizontal level of 1.1237. So far, the trend moves with an upward direction for the week so far. An important confluence on the resistance should also be noted.

At the same time, a confluence to 1.1245 with the 50- and 100-MA, which was the peak for the day so far. Below, the 1.1200 handle keeps the pair higher and remains major support in the short-term.

For the week, there is no market data anticipated for the week, unless a headline comes out to influence the market. Hence, a drop in volatility is likely.

Overall, even if the greenback weakens today, the euro major pair may have less trading. At the beginning of the day, the common currency is in a flat state. Meanwhile, the Sterling pound has been the strongest contender as the UK sales on retail push the pair higher.
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Dallish Larrie  
#812 Posted : Sunday, July 21, 2019 6:13:43 PM(UTC)
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Bangladesh

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KostiaForexMart  
#813 Posted : Monday, July 22, 2019 9:12:29 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 22, 2019

There were volatile movements last week as Fed members give their opinions with a majority seems to be tilting to policy easing. However, one Fed member opinion to wait should be noted. This results in a sharp decline in the pair and surge in volatility on different assets on Friday.

Thereby, markets focal point will be on the ECB with an expected schedule on Thursday.

Previously, the ECB had a hawkish sentiment, which is unexpected and furthermore, the price hike is postponed but it still in consideration.

On the other hand, the ECB president gives off a dovish sentiment since the postponement, which is hoping to be confirmed on the upcoming Thursday meeting.

Meanwhile, markets are still eyeing the Fed but are expected to diminish in the coming week. Aside from the ECB meeting, the Fed has this “blackout period” as they remain quiet without any interviews. Although, this will likely be transient.

Lastly, the latest GDP data will be published from the US on Friday, which is considered important prior to the meeting of the central bank.

It seems that the pair tries to break a flag pattern that gives a bullish sentiment considering last week’s rally. However, given the sharp drop from Thursday high, I don’t have high hopes for a bullish flag.

Moreover, it seems that the euro major pair is placed between the 1.1200 and 1.1280. For now, the pair is at the lower limit of the range. The declining trend following a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is likely to put pressure on the recovery rally of the pair in the next trading hours.

If the pair breaks beyond the range early this week, we can expect strong trading, where the ECB becomes the main driver in the direction for this week movement. Hence, the attention of investors will be directed to the ECB actions if they will also proceed with policy easing.
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KostiaForexMart  
#814 Posted : Tuesday, July 23, 2019 9:23:37 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 23, 2019

The euro currency keeps on declining as traders look for chances of sell stops on Tuesday with the anticipation of the ECB chief Draghi, to reduce rates in September to be discussed on ECB policy meeting on the 25th of the month.

Earlier, the trend declined when the sellers were able to work out the 1.1200 with the main trend is now in a downward direction. Afterwhich, the price pushed to the main level below at 1.1193 and 1.1181.

Sellers were also able to break through the long-term Fibo level of 1.1185 with the resistance level from 1.1278 to 1.1318. As a result, the euro major pair has a bearish trend.

At the moment, the price is found at 1.1178 and the future movement of the pair will highly depend on traders' reaction to the Fibo level of 1.1185.

If the price stays below 1.1185, this would mean the dominance of sellers and further movement to 1.1181 would mean a stronger presence of sellers. This could result in a break to 1.1161, which was previous support prior to the main bottoms at 1.1116 (May 30) and 1.1107 (May 23).

On the other hand, returning to the level of 1.1185 would mean the presence of buyers. In turn, this could lead to resistance levels of 1.12143/15. However, we should look for sellers and break to 1.1215 could mean faster acceleration to the upper level.
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KostiaForexMart  
#815 Posted : Thursday, July 25, 2019 7:04:03 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 25, 2019

Markets are hoping for a dovish sentiment from the ECB since other central banks have made their decisions. Although, this if not far from the June ECB meeting but not as dovish than expected. This resulted in an increase and then Draghi expressed their sentiments on considering the risks.

Now, the markets are considering easing from the ECB even today’s meeting. Although, some analysts have different opinions in mind as they are expecting it in September instead. Overall, volatility will highly depend on the decision, either become dovish or hawkish than anticipated by the markets.

Thus, we can expect a reaction given the markets’ statement of a probable rate cut. This time is different from the previous meetings since it is not about the press conference. If the price further declines, it is not far from stops induced below 2019 low, which can minimize volatility. Thus, I would aim for the level of 1.14027.

If we push lower from here, I think it is inevitable that stops will get triggered below the 2019 low. This can trigger a volatile downside move. In such a scenario, I would be looking for a move to 1.1027.

However, if the price turns out bullish, there can be few levels to be considered important. Initially, it will be around 1.1184, which was the previous high in March and April. At the same time, this caused a reversal in the middle of June. If the markets can reach as high as 1.1265 on an intraday basis, this would favor trade scalpers. This rate offers resistance beyond the usual range for ECB.

Support was held higher for the year at 1.1118 and a surge in volatility can take place in case it goes lower, which is likely to be the limit with today’s ECB meeting. It can stop from here if the ECB becomes dovish than anticipated. Yet, if the rate doesn’t decline, then we can see the pair to rise to 1.1184.
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KostiaForexMart  
#816 Posted : Monday, July 29, 2019 10:00:26 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 29, 2019

The dollar rallies prior to the Fed meeting, which puts the dollar bears in a difficult situation to keep their stance this week. Meanwhile, the dollar is about to reach the yearly high with inversely correlated to the euro major pair that will closely breakthrough the two-year low.

The price holds higher than the level of 1.1118 on the daily chart, although the ups are short. Volatility is expected to be present with the scheduled meeting of central banks this week.

In the previous week, the pair declined after the ECB meeting but only occurred to have a higher reversal. The resistance at 1.1188 is where sellers joined the trading. However, looking that the pair returned back to the support level, which could mean that there is not enough momentum for buying.

Also, major currencies are met with important support against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, there is no strong technical movement for a turn here. Yet, it may not be wise for tailgating for a breakthrough.

If the price breaks lower than the horizontal level of 1.1118, it could possibly attempt to test again the lower limit of the trend channel which was previously kept higher. This kept the price movement on the 4-hour chart.

On the other hand, if the price rises higher than 1.1135, this would open the chance to go higher with the resistance level remains at 1.1188 as an after-effect of ECB decision.

In the meantime, the volatility is likely to increase this week with various risks to move the markets. Yet, the mentioned resistance of 1.1188 remains to be a key resistance that traders have to face after ECB last week.
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KostiaForexMart  
#817 Posted : Tuesday, July 30, 2019 8:47:09 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 30, 2019

The economic data will not do much to induce volatility to the EUR/USD pair prior to the release of Fed meeting. The currency pair keeps the trades close to the support at 1.12100 after a loss of 2% for the week. Meanwhile, the pair is less likely to reach below the support, prior to tomorrow’s Fed meeting.

In today’s North American session, the US inflation data will be released. Even though the release of the PCE price index will have a minor impact on the market and barely drives it to move. Hence, it is worth observing the pair. Subdued inflation is the primary reason that drove the Fed to ease its policy. At the same time, the PCE index will reflect it if this is the case.

Bids are seen in the early trading of the euro major pair at the European session and attempt to break higher. If the currency moves higher than 1.1150, a break is highly likely in the early trading range and induce a bigger recovery.

A horizontal level of 1.1188 keeps the pair from falling down after the ECB meeting last week. It seems that level remains to be a significant level with further resistance around 1.1200 handle.

Bigger resistance is at bay around the area of 1.1240 with the convergence to the level of 50- and 100-MA. Yet, it seems that the pair will not get too far on the daily trend prior to the Fed meeting.

The level below 1.1118 seems to be important as initial resistance and the major support around 1.1100 handle. This support level has kept the pair lower and it is presumed to decline in the Wednesday Fed meeting.
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KostiaForexMart  
#818 Posted : Friday, August 02, 2019 7:08:56 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 2, 2019

On Wednesday, the markets were signaled by the Fed that they do not intend to begin a reduction cycle. For now, they will analyze the risks of the situation and then, they will adjust the policy if needed.

In effect, this put the market to set back as they positioned on the expectation of a start of the easing cycle. However, this returned not long after for rate cut in the short-term.

The recent statement of US President Donald Trump to add a tariff on Chinese imports, signifying that trade war talks are not yet settled. In turn, this induces an aversion to risks on metals while gains are reversed on equities.

A chance for a rate cute grew in September and the money markets are almost ready to get ready for the reduction.

Moreover, the pair also showed a reversal candlestick on the daily chart. Yesterday, the bullish trend indicates a strong buying kept the pair to bid on a decline.

Despite the release of the jobs report, the market sentiment is not likely to have a big change as they are getting ready for the rate cut.

The significant resistance level is at 1.1118, which kept the pair rising higher in April-May prior to Fed decision on Wednesday. A breakout would be important and could induce a trend reversal. Nonetheless, the US employment data will bring volatility today.
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KostiaForexMart  
#819 Posted : Tuesday, August 06, 2019 8:03:37 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 5, 2019

Last week, the headlines on US president Trump publicized the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods has had a big impact on the US dollar rate. Alongside with it, this occurred simultaneously with the markets placing bets on another rate cut in September given the dovish decision of the Fed.

Considering the CME Fed watch tool, a rate cute is probable in September by about 50 basis points in a quarter percentage chance. This is not surprising but trade tariffs add could adjust the sentiment at the next Fed meeting.

EUR/USD trend changes swiftly and whose central bank, the ECB or the Fed, will ease their policies becomes uncertain already even daily. On a positive note, it seems like the technical analysis becomes more stable even if the fundamental outlook looks hazy.

The recent gains of euro major pair were primarily due to the weakened dollar and commodity instruments are in red in this month.

The level of 1.1118 plays a significant role in the trend. An upward rally countered the earlier breakdown. Hence, it is likely for the pair to drop at the beginning of the week to be sustained in this area.

The area of 1.1118 was considered to be either resistance and support. This level limits short-term gains. If we can sustain the rally tomorrow or the day after, the next probable target is around 1.1230 given the convergence of the 50- and 100MA.
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KostiaForexMart  
#820 Posted : Wednesday, August 07, 2019 9:42:33 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 7, 2019

Recently, the news concerning the trade war between the US and China urged traders to act relative to the Chinese exchange rate.

Some resistance establishes from 200-MA on the 4-hour daily chart and a strong confluence of 50- and 100-MA to 1.1230.

A push higher than the resistance level took place on the intraday and closed below it. A Doji candle indicates exhaustion and builds a pullback. A bearish engulfing candle was seen just after the European open.

It seems that the pair is descending. A strong bullish tone pushes the rally of the pair at the beginning of the week. This also opens a chance for a reversal in the short-term. The pair returned to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. This can give a sign when the pair reaches the top price for the week.

In general, volatility can spark concerning the trade war. Also, there is not much going on in the economic calendar, except for the speech from Fed member Evans which remains the focus in the trading session ahead.
Regards, ForexMart PR Manager
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