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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 21, 2019

The euro major pair had a better trading than yesterday, which means that there is a chance for a recovery of the pair. Despite the rally of the US dollar, the EUR/USD pair dropped by 0.19%. There was some fresh bids on the USD index prior to the positive data from the US.

The US-Sino trade talks influenced the overall tone of the dollar traders to decrease. Just recently, some companies such as Huawei, Chinese Giant Telecommunication Equipment Company were blacklisted in the US, which then affected the Chinese business. After the news, Huawei clients had retreated, as well as, another chipset manufacturer from Europe. Meanwhile, updates for Android was suspended by Google.

Investors are concerned with the backlash of China against the action of the US. At the same time, this adds pressure over dollar with the continuous uncertainty from trade talks. The EUR/USD pair gained advantage on the weakened dollar.

For today, there is no major events from Europe today except for the Consumer Confidence Index for the month of May from the European Commission. The market perceives the pair to remain a bit bullish at the present condition.

The dollar has already increased prior to the Housing data from the US with a rising forecast. Yet, the increase in the USD index gives a downward pressure to the pair.

The pair has established a downward movement towards the lower boundary of the Bollinger bands. The RSI showed a trend similar to the pair with the range between 35 and 40 levels. It may mean a low momentum and weak interest from investors. At the same time, it seems that there is a low volatility to the pair given the shorter gap between bands of the pair. Resistance levels are expected around 1.1175, 1.1185, and 1.1225 and support close to 1.1136 and 1.1111 levels.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 22, 2019

In the beginning, the euro major pair shows a high chance of recovery. Although the pair attempted for a breakout, it failed to surpass the resistance level of 1.1164. Moving forward, the pair stayed close to the level of 1.1155, showing an opposite downward curve.

On the eve, the pair rose by 0.13% soon after the release of May’s agreement. Nonetheless, the pair could not settle gains and return to the lower level.

With the continued uncertainty for the US-Sino trade war that seems to be moving wrongly. As well, as the damages incurred with the issue with Huawei. This adds pressure to the whole global economy.

Any unexpected result may bring in volatility to the pair while the market presently had high hopes to Brexit, which then plunge the pair downward.

The Fed chief has a scheduled speech for today to discuss the matter of interest rates and other economic concerns. Previously, Draghi said that there is a possibility to keep the interest rates unchanged. The FOMC minutes of the meeting is the focus for today, which will likely have a high impact on the US dollar index.

The trend of the EUR/USD pair seems to be having a bearish tone with the price below the baseline of the Ichimoku clouds on the trend. The further it goes down, the more that it will likely sell. The RSI showed the pair’s movement staying between 50th and 40th figure. It signifies moderate buying and slight interest of investors. The price of the pair was initially at 1.1160 and then declined to 1.1153. In case of a further decline, the pair may find support at 1.1142 and oppositely, it will likely go up until the resistance of 1.1188.

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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 23, 2019

The euro major pair declined on Thursday morning from 1.1155, aiming for a breakdown at the support level of 1.1149. Today, there will be the EU Parliamentary Elections which may greatly affect the pair and further be pressured.

On the other hand, the Brexit is presumed to take place prior to the elections. Nonetheless, PM Theresa May could not finish the Brexit matter. France was allocated with a spot to the Union but the UK is still participating and everything has to have their own places.

On the other hand, the US dollar surpasses the level of 98.12 which as more pressure to the EUR/USD pair with the USD index. The FOMC minutes of the meeting was released last night and it was unexpected for them to keep the rates the same. At the same time, the minutes have mentioned that the current economic situation is less likely to have a big impact on the currencies.

For the Fundamental reports, data on Manufacturing PMI for Germany and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released today. These have to be monitored as it may greatly affect the pair. Moreover, German GDP, Services & the Composite PMI, German Expectations from IFO, the Business Climate, and the Current Assessment are expected as well.

On the US side, reports on Continuing and Initial Jobless claims figures, Markit PMI for the Services, Manufacturing and the Composite of both sectors are anticipated by everyone. Aside from that, we have the New Home Sales and the Sales Change report to monitor as well.

Traders should be mindful of the initial buying on the start of the European trading session as the candle closes on the hourly chart. The resistance above 1.1150 gives a stronger resistance, which was tested for support several times in the previous week. In case that the pair resumed a breakout, sellers may see mix strategies close to the resistance around 1.1170. There seems to be a horizontal level that limits aside from the upper line from the descending channel which restricts the price movement in mid-May. Overall, seeing a marginal breakdown close to the early May low at 1.1135 had encountered some puny stops from weak traders. It could further go down to 1.1109 in case of a continuous descent. Meanwhile, bears’ attention is on the support of 1.1135 towards 1.0975 to 1.10.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 24, 2019

The euro meets pressure again during the Thursday session with the looming from the markets again. Presently, we cannot be certain on what pushed this trend to occur but we can just base it on the common reasons. One of which is a trade war between the US and China. Directly stating the situation, it seems there is more from what is happening. Hence, the present market reflects the standing of the US dollar.

If we look at the price, significant support is found at 1.11, which will likely be tested during the trading session. If the price breaks lower than the daily close, it will pave its way towards the level of 1.10. However, this pair will not exactly be an easy run. Although, I’d say that it won’t be long before the buyers return in the market. Furthermore, we should also focus our attention on how the daily candle forms. If it bounces from here, the next probable target level will be 1.1150. Needless to say, this pair isn’t exactly best to trade at the moment. It is quite tight, which is usual but that makes it the latter option in gaining profit. Scalpers are primarily the ones who will gain an advantage of this and the level of 1.11 is a good level to start off as it may offer a slight jump.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 27, 2019

The euro major pair moves close to 1.1211 on Monday morning. It looks like the pair resumes the upward trend since Friday. With ongoing European parliamentary elections and declining US dollar index, the pair was able to recover. The price opened close to 1.1203 and reach a new high at 1.1214.

Results for the election were released on Sunday, showing the Brexit gained the majority of the votes. The head of the winning party said that they consider handling Brexit in a new parliament. Although, there is a chance for a no-deal Brexit.

The US dollar pairs stronger against six major currency pairs at 95.78 during the Asian session. The US-China trade tension continues to influence the US dollar as it drops lower. It attempted to reach a fresh new high in the morning after a slight decline for the greenback today.

Today, the US will celebrate the ‘Memorial day’, hence, the US market will be closed today while there are no anticipated events from the eurozone. Meanwhile, traders will keep on monitoring the results of post-election and for any significant news regarding the US-China trade deal.

The technical level shows the reversal in the middle trading of morning hours. The indicator lines appeared close to the upper Bollinger bands moved downwards instead. It also crossed the middle line of the Bollinger bands or around the EMA close to 1.1204, which put an end to the small rally on May 23. After the pair have risen to 60 levels in the past trading session, the RSI is moving close to 50 levels. Yet, the trend stays active and trades above the important SMA. Hence, the 50-SMA crossed the 200-SMA and collide with the pair. We can expect a bearish tone in the short-term if it reaches above the 50-SMA.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 29, 2019

There is a high probability for the EUR/USD pair to trade range-bound for this week but will less likely reach a new yearly low.

The reason behind is that there is a minor report expected on the economic calendar this week. The ECB will have its meeting next week and the recent data on employment figure is anticipated to be released as well. These two events will kickstart the momentum needed to maintain descent.

Data released didn’t have a big impact on the trading rates despite the less-than-expectations result on preliminary CPI. On the other hand, the quarterly GDP has increased. The consumer spending grew at a faster pace this April than expected.

The pair seems to have maintained the closing the candle at 1.11350 on the 4-hour chart, which sets a rally to the peak in the early part of the month.

The recent support is important and uncertain while the pair should not proceed lower in order for it to reach higher levels.

Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, there is an intersection with the support level of 1.1150 to the lower part of the channel.

Although the pair grew higher at the beginning of the North American session, the upper resistance at 1.1170 is less likely important. The pair has already offered twice as resistance since its breakthrough. There is also some confluence with the 200-MA close to it and the chance for a higher level is not too far.

Thus, there is a possibility for the price to bounce higher although, we can expect the trend for short-term to decline. Sellers can push for a rally around 1.1170. However, in the case of decline lower than the support level, it is better to be careful in lowering the price without enough momentum.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 30, 2019

The euro major pair was able to break through to different support levels without difficulty, which gives a strong sign of weakness. At the same time, the pair was able to pull back whenever it reached a fresh lows of the year, as shown on the daily chart.

Forecast on the early weeks are the levels of 1.1170, 1.1150, and 1.1135, which induced a bounce of the pair for this week. Although the rallies for recovery from the said levels were not that high. The pair stayed at the level of 1.1135 the most and has broken below it during the North American trading on Wednesday.

Focused on the release of the GDP data for this week, it did not really have much of an impact to the market. Moreover, there are also reports on pending home sales, unemployment claims and the speech from FOMC member Clarida.

There is no clear breakdown lower than 1.1135 on the 4-hour chart. A sustained break would then aim for last week’s low, which is a major support in May around 1.1109. Furthermore, there is also liquidity below the area of 1.1097 and 1.1100.

It will take a break above 1.1150 to trigger a broader recovery and to entice some of the bears this week to cover their positions. If such an event materializes, strong resistance is found at 1.1170. In addition to the horizontal level, both the 100 and 200 moving averages are close to each other.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 31, 2019

The euro positions higher than the US dollar on Friday with a threat of recession and Fed rate cut at the later months of the year. In case of a drop down in the US Treasury yields, this will give a strong signal for a reduction in Fed interest rates. As of the moment, the Fed has been calm as their action is relative to the data. They are aware that trade disputes and tariffs have a negative influence on the economy. Assuringly, they would only act once when they know the outcome of inflation, as well as in the labor market.

On Thursday, a report from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. inflation was much weaker than initially thought in the first quarter amid a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. On Friday, traders will get the opportunity to react to the April Core PCE Index. The report is expected to come in at 0.2%. On Friday, data on Core PCE index is scheduled to be released with a forecast of 0.2%.

In inflation, the Fed target of 2% was reached by traders in March 2018 for the first time since April 2012. The most recent forecast will be 1.5% y-o-y. This figure will support the Fed for more rate cuts, which in turn will give a bullish sentiment for the euro.

Looking at the numbers, the euro major pair could rise higher if buyers can break the 1.1215 mark. Overall, the trend shown a downward movement, although the momentum is rising since the price reversal as it closes at the bottom of 1.1107.

A trade beyond 1.1107 will counter the closing price reversal and implies a continuation of the downtrend. There is a high chance for the trend to change around 1.1215.

The minor range is 1.1107 to 1.1215. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1161 is controlling the short-term direction of the EUR/USD.

The main range can be found between 1.1264 and 1.1107 with the retracement zone at 1.1185. The next target will likely be at 1.1204 and long-term Fibo level at 1.1185.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 3, 2019

The euro major pair had a sudden reversal on Friday to remove losses early in the week. The drive shows a chance for further gains. Yet, I anticipate a pullback during the trading session with some resistance levels around.

On the 4-hour chart, it shows confluence on the resistance from the 100-MA and descending channel headed upward. The 200-MA is just above the 100-MA that could give more resistance, which is recently at 1.1193.

During the North American session, the closing the 4-hour candle is a necessity and closing around the lows could lead to an evening star pattern, which could then prompt traders for a short position.

The EUR/USD pair resides higher than the 200-MA on the hourly chart. A rebound could bring the price up, above the horizontal line of 1.1170.

The level of 1.1183 offers quite a strong resistance, seeing the previous losses and the existence of the trend channel in the current situation.

On the horizontal level of 1.1150 was seen converging to the 100-MA, which can become strong support should it go down.

Even if the current momentum is directed upward, there is a chance for a pullback given the resistance at hand. There is also a possibility for testing of the support around 1.1150. There will likely be various stops above 1.12 and can cause volatility as the bears react to safety on the situation. Nevertheless, the pair can move higher by the end of the week and a long position can be considered if it reaches around 1.1150/1.1144.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 4, 2019

On the daily chart, the trend shows resistance at the present levels with a downward trend that occurred for most of the year.

The 100-MA was also tested today, which also holds the pair below. The horizontal level of 1.1259 was the major support level in February and tried to keep low twice last month.

There are signs of reversal signal that starts to appear on the 4-hour chart. A few candlestick patterns were observed to be exhausted near resistance. The previous candle was a doji which may indicate selling pressure close to the resistance.

On the hourly chart, the last three candles that shows evening star implies a reversal pattern. A strong reversal pattern may be the case here or a pullback after a large gain.

Another important factor at play is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the correction last month. In case of a decline, the pair drops as low as 1.1213, which had a rally earlier. Further support can be found below 1.1200, close to 1.1195. Moreover, both of the 100- and 200-MA are converging around the said level on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

Nevertheless, even if the pair have a strong upward momentum, there is a major confluence at the resistance. Yet, a downward correction is likely to happen. Meanwhile, the bulls may think twice in pushing the pair higher.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 6, 2019

The euro major pair dropped suddenly on Wednesday trading hours, which then resulted in a reversal candle on a daily chart. This opens the possibility for a good rally. Overall, the direction of the trend will be relative to the ECB which will meet later this day.

The current trend indicates a downward movement more than expected. Meanwhile, different central banks eased the monetary policy or at least mentioned that they are open to doing so. Draghi will probably adjust the inflation forecast downward to an extent. In case that he chose to ease the policy amid the declining economic numbers, then the common currency will highly likely decline amid a high pressure.

Looking at the average movement, there is not a high chance for the EUR/USD pair to return above yesterday’s high. This would show as much as 86 pip rally since the opening.

Traders are suggested to look at the level of 1.1260, the level of which traders are likely to be aware of in the current situation. This has been on the lows twice last month and possibly be the limit at the present time. Although, it may not be that relevant after looking at the present levels.

As mentioned previously, there is also a significant resistance higher than the said level, especially considering the 100-MA and 38.2% Fibonacci from the high to low of this year. Although, it is less likely to retest the Fibonacci. Thus, I would focus my attention on the level of 1.1273, considerably that yesterday showed a strong reversal pattern.

There is also some support found around 1.1185 in case of decline due to the ECB on the 4-hour chart. This area will likely be maintained as the 100-and 200- MA are converged at the said price unless the ECB chief will have a new trigger to spike this.

As for the hourly chart, the price resides around 1.1185 at the 200-MA. There is some upward resistance at 1.1260 as a considered level. Yet, I would not clearly put a stake on a surge of increase beyond it.

In general, if the meeting turns are usual as expected, the pair will likely rally. It is suggested to look into the upper resistance and short yesterday’s high.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 7, 2019

The euro major pair move forward on Thursday amid the slight dovish less the expectation ECB meeting. It was seen to be trading in a tight range before tha Non-farm payroll data to be released later this day.

The ECB data mentioned easing during yesterday’s meeting but not sufficient for the market, which resulted in a rally in the euro major pair.

To be more precise, Draghi adjusted lower the expected rate increase and mentioned TLTRO III.

Fed chair Powell mentioned the tendency for a subdued inflation in the early days of the week. A few drops in inflation would have an impact on the monetary policy if this happens in a more steady pace.

The ECB meeting shook the market expectations on central bank. For now, inflation in the euro is expected or at least until the next meeting.

The EUR/USD pair encounters some strong resistance as it directs its attention to the level of 1.1260. Also, the 100-MA should be given attention as their is confluence with the decline of the Fibonacci just above it.

The euro major pair was sustained higher at the horizontal level of 1.1260 in the early European trading hours. Moreover, the NFP did not show a lot volatility recently. I anticipate for the pair to try and defend the level of 1.1294. A support level to 1.1213 is open on a drop.

The ECB meetings stands to keep the euro firm in the short-term. Hence, it also open opportunities in cross currency pairs. A break higher than 1.1318 would confirm the upward movement.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 11, 2019

Last week, the Fed monetary policy is anticipated to have a dovish sentiment while the ECB has a strong stance about the economic outlook on the common currency.

The main concern of the Fed is inflation as the decline in inflation will likely have a negative impact, which will then prompt the Fed to loosen their policies.

Weak inflation would work well with the purpose and push the strengthening of the euro. The market already anticipates and prepares for the probable Fed easing. Nonetheless, there is a risk accompanied by inflation, which is why we can expect the euro major pair to have a hard time maintaining upward momentum before the release of economic data.

On the technical outlook, the pair looks like having a hard time in the horizontal resistance around 1.1318, which has been significant resistance in April and was a support for some time.

Initially, the pair testing the opening of the North American session. Thus, the traders during the early European session tried to raise the price higher, however, it was a failed attempt.

Therefore, we can consider the level of 1.1318 as psychological level in the short-term. There is a chance for an increase in a condition that the pair closes above the said level on the 4-hour chart. Otherwise, it will maintain its range-bound trading.

Meanwhile, the pair has been moving higher during the opening on the hourly chart of the Monday North American session. There is not much momentum to raise higher and a flag pattern is not confirmed.

On the other hand, the level of 1.1294 can become resistance and support. This just shows the 38.2 Fibonacci compared to the year’s high to low. Thus, there is a chance for the pair to drop lower than the level but there is a probability for the pair to reach around 1.1280. There is not much volatility expected prior to the publication of US inflation.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 13, 2019

The result of CPI data yesterday did not push the EUR/USD to move higher than the 200-MA (weekly) as it was seen below prior to the release. Hence, the traders are likely to focus on the US retail report scheduled on Friday.

The final CPI data was shown to have increased by 0.2%, meeting the expectations. The unemployment data from Italy also resulted as anticipated in the first quarter of the year. Yet, these data did not have a big impact on the exchange rates.

For this week, the 200-MA (weekly) presents to be a difficulty. Moreover, the pair is trading importantly around the indicator for a year.

The pair has tested the August level last year, which was seen to move above it for a few months until it broke down in March. As of recently, the sellers were successful in the rally, which can make trading quite difficult.

The pattern gives a bearish sentiment on the hourly chart. Soon after the inflation data yesterday, the euro major pair broke lower and the pair reached 1.1260. The support level of 1.1280 also gives psychological significance. The 100-MA is also shown to be converging to the horizontal level.

On the 4-hour chart, the price level of 1.1280 reflects significance given the ascending channel from the May low at the same area.

Given the decline, the downturn of the price is expected to move momentarily with the psychological levels at 1.1280 and 1.1260. Given the confluence in the support region, there is a possibility not to reach the next target despite the presence of a flag pattern. Traders may have difficulty in breaking the resistance from the 200-MA.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 14, 2019

The euro major pair dropped to a range lower than 1.1280 prior to the release of the US retail sales data. It is likely that markets will focus on the Fed more than the retail sales. There is an important shit in expectations after the analysts noted three rate cuts for the year.

The meeting scheduled next week will determine the policymakers course of action. Meanwhile, the markets are hoping for a signal on their next move, even earlier than the July meeting. Thus, the rally of the EUR/USD was due to the shift. If this is confirmed, then there is a chance for an upward movement.

There is a high probability that the markets will look for a chance to cell the dollar after the initial reaction in the results of the retail sales prior to the Fed meeting.

The previous bear flag pattern in yesterday’s report is still significant with the lower target at 1.1260 as the euro major pair heads below with low momentum. Nonetheless, it is still not too far from the target.

Yet, traders should monitor the level of 1.1280 in the US trading hours. The market tries to push it higher during the early European session but the rally was not sufficient to be sustained.

The pair stays range-bound on the 4-hour chart. Traders should also get ready to have some volatility in the US session, although it will not be much given that its Friday.

It is also important to note that a made a breakthrough to the target level of 1.1260 moves to a bearish confluence with a resistance level that is important last week. Hence, there is a possibility to have a retest to defend this area. A break higher than 1.1280 can open chances for an uptrend while the upcoming Fed meeting next week keep the bids for the pair at bay.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 17, 2019

The euro major pair is consolidating close to the 200-MA on the 4-hour chart after its recent drop on Friday. Nonetheless, the pair has a possibility to bounce upward.

There was a boost for the pair to move lower due to the US retail sales data which strengthened the dollar. It was not able to hold the level as high as 1.1343 at the beginning of the week even to 1.1200 after the release.

The Fed meeting is anticipated to be dovish that makes the market uncertain if the rate cut will push through, although there is a chance for the price to be reduced by as much as 20% at the beginning of the European session.

On the one hand, the futures market did not turn hawkish after the retail sales, as it simply means an extended rate cut took place earlier than anticipated. The possibility of another two rate cuts in the past meeting is still on the plate.

There is not much expected in the economic calendar except for the speech of Draghi today and tomorrow. Even so, the previous one did not really have an impact on the market. Thus, there might also be no reaction this week.

Although, a short surge in volatility could take place due to the expected inflation data from the euro.

There is a horizontal support level at 1.1204 on the 4-hour chart. This level plays an important role, considering the 1.12 level and the 200-MA close to it. A bounce off may take place when the decline fades this week. There was an important rally in late May that supports the decline in the early June.

There is a strong downward impetus on the hourly chart, considering that there was a bear pattern last week while aiming for 1.1260. When the pair reaches this figure, there is support found below on the descending channel.

Moreover, since the pair strengthened after the release of the retail sales, it implies the strong presence of sellers and they are determined to take the lead. Hence, recovery is not far from happening at the moment.

We can expect resistance at 1.1237 in the next trading session and a confluence with 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. If this succeeds, it opens the possibility of the pair to reach the resistance of 1.1260. Any significant changes may occur after the Fed meeting and for now, trading promotes a range-bound movement.
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KostiaForexMart
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  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 18, 2019

After Draghi’s speech, the euro major pair lost 50 pips immediately after an hour, which shows the markets reacted strongly to it.

The euro major pair dropped to some significant levels. Initially, it dropped below the 100- and 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. But then, it didn’t succeed to hold above an important horizontal level of 1.1204, which confluence with the 61.8% from the June low. Moreover, the 200-MA declines close on the 4-hour chart.

A breakout in the important levels would mean the sellers are dominating the trend. The next support level will likely drop to 1.1176, which was previously the support and the March low.

A breakdown towards the psychological level of 1.1200 is important and opens the possibility to reach as low as 1.1176. On the other end, the resistance level will likely be at 1.1204. Fundamentally, the Fed meeting will play a major role tomorrow and could restrict the downward movement of the pair today.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 20, 2019

The EUR/USD trend will be relative to trader’s sentiment to the level of 1.1307 with an upward momentum. If the price stayed over the level of 1.1318, this would confirm the upward trend. However, there is a chance for the pair to shift downward if they did not succeed to reach the support 50% at 1.1270.

The common currency is trading above the US dollar and adjust with the chances of a rate cut in July, influenced by a dovish monetary policy of Fed and rhetorics by Fed chair, Jerome Powell. The Fed fund futures also shows that traders places their bets on rate cuts for the months of July, September and December.

The euro major pair is trading slightly above the level when the ECB President Draghi expressed his dovish sentiments on Tuesday. Hence, it means that markets will either square (close their existing positions) or cover for the rally. However, if the buyers are successful in the level above 1.1348, this can shift the trend.

Overall, the trend is downward looking at the daily chart. The trend shifted downward when the sellers try to take the bottom level of 1.1204. A breakthrough to 1.1181 would mean a continuation of the descending trend. The major retracement area is around 1.1270 to 1.1318, which can act as resistance.

A prolonged move above 1.1307 signifies the presence of buyers, which could lead to a short-rally at 1.1318. However, if the market fails to break the level of 1.11307 and consolidate at this level would indicate the presence of sellers.

The upward momentum can be confirmed of the price movement towards 1.1318 is sustained but could turn downward when the support level fails at 1.1270 (50%).
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 24, 2019

The Fed hinted for a decline by 30 bp as the Fed made known their decision to go for a rate cut instead of an increase, which can have a big impact on the markets. Moreover, the bank raised their rates in the previous years without hinting of monetary easing. Yet, the market expects that this can come sooner than expected, which is also reflected in the movement of the dollar.

Hence, the euro major pair can be in a fragile position where it can move easily with the pending incoming data and any signs of a decline would open sales for the bears. In this view, this can cause a big shift in movement for the currency pair.

There is light trading for today given the minimal fundamental event, which may last throughout the day. The next important psychological level will probably be around the resistance of 1.1457. Meanwhile, the 1.1347 seems to be an attractive support level, which was the previous high at the beginning of the month. At the same time, a few confluences were seen in the ascending channel.

The level if 1.1305 is also a probable support level but there is less chance for this. However, short-term dips are needed to sustain the upward momentum. For now, there is no reason for the pair to pull back that low.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 25, 2019

The euro major pair was seen trading a bit lower prior to the opening of the US session. It was able to exceed the peak for five consecutive sessions before its decline. Hence, there is a chance for the common currency to close with the bearish tone with top price reversal. If this happens, the trend could result in a break for two to three days.

However, a price reversal would not necessarily change the trend downward. On the other hand, it shows that the sales are more ideal compared to buying at the current rate, which in most cases would mean that there is excessive impetus directed upward.

The main trend shows an upward direction based on the daily chart, which was confirmed by a successful breakout of buyers. Meanwhile, the trend is moving downhill when considering intraday trading when the market has a downward sentiment.

In case that the price moves to 1.1413, this would mean the dominance of buyers as they try to sustain below 1.1398 in order to have a top price reversal.

The support levels around retracement area of 1.1318 to 1.1278 should be given importance, which will also affect the short-term direction of the euro major pair.

Overall, the movement of the pair will depend on the trader’s reaction to yesterday's closing level of 1.1398. If the price stays around 1.1398 will signify the presence of buyers while a decline from the said level would signal the dominance of sellers. A breakthrough 1.1413 would emphasize the strengthening of buyers and if there is enough momentum, the price will likely look for a momentum to reach 1.1413. Furthermore, reaching the price level of 1.1448 will shift the trend upward. A price movement sustained below 1.1398 would indicate the presence of sellers with the initial target of 1.1381.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 27, 2019

There was less volatility for the euro major pair in the past trading sessions. A significant fundamental report from the US may have an impact on the pair but the focus will be on the expected G20 summit.

Markets are hopeful that the China-US trade war will be subdued by the summit. The future movement of the dollar is important as the markets focus on the US monetary easing amid the sluggish economy and the existence of trade war.

The US data will not exactly move the trading pair but experts anticipate the GDP numbers to progress its annualized percent by 3.1%.

Other reports will probably not influence the movement of the pair such as the weekly unemployment claims report. To be safe, it is suggested to follow the trend. The initial two readings may be against the forecast and at the same time, there were higher revisions last week. Previously, the reading came out earlier than expected.

At the moment, I would look around the level of 1.1347, which shows a peak in early June and close to the 200-MA on both the daily and weekly charts. For the record, the pair has had three drops at this area.

The pair has to move above the level of 1.1400 in order to confirm the uptrend, although this has not happened so far as investors wait for the results of the G20 meeting. Moreover, the speeches of Fed members restrained the continuation of a decline. Hence, a driver is needed for a breakout around the range of 1.1385 and 1.1400, whilst the level of 1.1347 remains to be a psychologically important figure.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 1, 2019

Volatility is present early this week following the previous range-bound trading of the various instruments in the market in the background of ongoing US-Sino trade talks. News on tariff and restriction to Huawei telecom company pushed the equity markets higher and pressured the dollar. Although, this may not last long.

Moreover, pessimistic forecasts of several fundamental data such as the Manufacturing PMI from European countries will further weigh on the common currency. This is in line with the global economic situation in China and Japan, as well as other Asian countries.

The euro major pair has made a significant breakdown today. Other major pairs also experienced such event as seems like a reversal in short-term. However, we should take note of the 200-MA, which is being tested by the US dollar index that could trigger the pair to decline.

Previously, the center of interest was on the fall of the pair at the level of 1.1347. Aside from it being the resistance level, it had a confluence on the 200-MA on the daily and weekly chart.

As for the support, there were several attempts until it broke down earlier this day, which can become the resistance level. Staying on the levels below could induce a correction to the pair and likely to rise higher than 1.1385, which will be favorable for the EUR/USD bulls.

For now, we can expect strong support at 1.1305 with confluence to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. Overall, the short-term gives a bearish tone and a breakout to 1.1385 would confirm the continuation of the previously bullish sentiment in the markets.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 2, 2019

The euro major pair has been the top currency pair for the week so far. Also, the dollar is above the Swiss franc than other major currency pairs while it is not doing well for the Canadian dollar.

The EUR/USD decline for this week is mainly due to a stronger dollar, following the trade news between China and the US. Also, it seems that the Fed speeches have also limited the earlier rally of the pair in the second half of June.

Earlier this week, the pair is gaining a downward momentum and dropped below the significant confluence close to support of 1.1350, marking the 200-MA. At the same time, the US dollar index was found to have reached the 200-MA. This opens the opportunity to short the dollar but this is still not yet confirmed.

The next support level will probably at 1.1365 and gave a significant amount of resistance in the past. Over this area, there is a chance for testing the support level of 1.1237, where there is a lot of confluence and also likely to hold buyers. Nonetheless, the pair is far from plunging lower but we can rely on selling in times of rallies for short-term. The trend will likely go up and the present decline may offer an opportunity for a long trade.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 3, 2019

This week began with a decline and the momentum of the EUR/USD pair may have lost. The pair closed on a flat after a failed rally higher than the level of 1.1300. The most recent news on the trade truce between the US and China is the root of strength for the dollar but this may not move steadily.

Another important factor is the gold prices as it moves relative to the economic developments in the US. The yellow metal almost broke down to fresh six year-high that could mean that the increase of the dollar may be almost over.

Today, data from ADP on employment is expected which will give a hint on the US labor market. Thursday is a holiday and this can bring volatility after the closing of the European session.

The indicator was seen at the level of 1.1260 and close to the 100-MA. A strong confluence is possible around 1.1265, which can become resistance and was the peak in the month of May. This kept the pair lower after a few tries and was successfully broken at the beginning of June.

Reaching the level upward to 1.1300 can become difficult. A horizontal level can be at 1.1305 on the daily chart. However, looking at it, a steady move to 1.1300 is needed by bulls.

On the other end, a breakdown lower than the support confluence with the next target at the horizontal level of 1.1237, which is also where the rising channel moves downward since the low level in May.

Nonetheless, the US jobs data to be released today and on Friday may cause a bullish reversal. At the same time, trading may be thin given that tomorrow is a holiday.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 4, 2019

The EUR/USD pair may move close to the bottom and the present bounce off is due to the trade talks between China and the US on the weekend. In turn, this resulted in a correlation across the financial markets.

The 10-year Treasury yields rallied from 2% while gold prices dropped lower than $1400 following a breakout in the previous week. The equity market is under pressure given that the S&P 500 drops from the resistance on the longer timeframe. It is not surprising that the dollar index bounced off more than the 200-DMA.

A divergence between the dollar and other trading instruments has important in considering the trading since the dollar has not undergone a reversal like other assets. Yet, it is also not that logical to expect the euro major pair will further go down present the given fundamental event even looking at how aggressive the market sets in easing in July. Nonetheless, the pair seems to have been trading for just about 1.5% from the multi-year lows.

There is significant confluence in the support close to the trading area which is at the 100-MA and the lower bound channel at 1.1264.

Bull traders will meet an obstruction at 1.1305, which pushed the pair lower yesterday.

The data of NFP on Friday will bring in some volatility to the pair. For now, the pair will likely to continue in consolidating within the range. Support is expected to be close to 1.1264 and the markets are probably not assured with the short-term trade war truce.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 5, 2019

Analysts are looking hoping for growth in the labor market after it failed to meet expectations of previous month’s reading. The job report for today will determine the course of the Fed in July since the strength of labor will have a significant role in the action of Fed. Hence, an exceeding report can result for an easing or the other way around.

The Euro major pair is in the important situation prior to the release of the jobs report given that there is downward confluence on the support. For the past couple of days, the pair was seen consolidating above.

In particular, there is a horizontal level at 1.1264, which held the pair twice below in May. The 100-MA was close around this area enough for a confluence.

Furthermore, there is a support as it bounces below in the rising channel from previous lows in late May. Moreover, there is a 61.8% retracement found from middle of June lows, as well in the 50% retracement from May lows close to the level of 1.1264.


Given the confluence below on the support level, the results for NFP data has to come out with positive results in order for the EUR/USD pair to close below. The data will have a major impact on short-term trend. Yet, the resistance above keeps the pair lower at the beginning of the week. A bullish breakout will confirm the beginning of trend reversal.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 9, 2019

The US dollar’s performance surpassed expectations at the beginning of the week as it pushes the price to lows not since the middle of June. When the rate cut is revised, this may being a surge in the pair.

Yesterday, the psychological level is at 1.1888, which was both a support and resistance in the past. Recently, the level was kept higher in the month of June. The pair tried to approach the level early this morning and even look for a breakout below for a short while. It could prompt stops below the mid-level low in June.

If the breakout holds, the next target for support will likely be around 1.1135. The major support is centered at 1.1188. However, this have minimal chances before the Fed rhetoric, which is anticipated to influence the movement of the pair in the next few days. At the same time, this will confirm the positioning of the central bank. Overall, it is important to be heedful in trading given this background.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 12, 2019

Forecast for consumer prices shows a higher increase in June. The most recent report showed a growth of 0.1 for the month CPI and 0.3% for the Core CPI. Overall, the figures have exceeded expectations.

Rising inflation may affect the rally of the euro major pair given that the weaker dollar was driven this week by expectations on monetary policy easing.

The dollar index (DXY) dropped more than half of the percent from the most recent high amid the rhetorics of Powell. On yesterday’s CPI data, the index rose and was able to close unchanged.

A Doji pattern was also seen on the euro major pair, which shows some exhaustion. This follows the possibility that the CPI data may hinder the upward movement of the pair, at least for short-term. Along with the Doji pattern, the pair closed below the 100-MA and was unsuccessful to break higher than the indicator, which will not be favorable for the bulls. As of the moment, the price is trading beyond it. The upward movement seems to be limited by the resistance of 1.1265 so far.

The pair has to maintain a breakthrough above 1.1280 in order to confirm the ascending movement here. This will negatively affect yesterday’s exhaustion candle. On the other end, if the pair closes once again below the 100-MA, traders can expect for the weakened state at the beginning of next week.

It may not be easy to continue the recovery of the pair but as stated, there is some strong resistance at 1.1305on the 4-hour chart and be limited around 1.1265. There is also a chance for the pair to retreat to the horizontal level of 1.1237 below.

There is a minimal chance for the euro major pair to recover in the background of a few fundamental news and technical limitations to limit the pair's move to go higher. The pair is also likely to close in relation to the 100-MA, which would have a big impact on next week’s trading.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 16, 2019

Looking back at what happened last week, the dollar had gone weaker after Fed chair became more dovish than anticipated. However, with the presence of resistance on the upside and range support, the EUR/USD pair could stay range-bound.

Nonetheless, the market will monitor the upcoming data to assess the probability of Fed easing at the end of the month. The highest impact will probably be the initial release of the second quarter of GDP. Hence, the momentum in the euro and other currency pairs paired with greenback will probably slow down.

As we can see, the impact of Powell rhetorics will probably lessen this week, considering that the future markets will prepare to set the price after aggressive easing at the end of the month. Meanwhile, the likelihood of rate cut by 50 basis points grew to 3 from 1.

The euro major pair was previously seen testing the confluence of support at 1.1237 and the 50-MA.

It seems that there is a lot of trading at the start of this week. However, it less likely to break lower and at the same time, thinking that the top resistance is opposing the dollar index.

Overall, volatility may be a bit slow prior to the release of data, which will have a say to the chances of a rate cut. In the short-term, a rally is probable at 1.1265 with the presence of sellers.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 17, 2019

Markets are still not sure on how the Fed will be on the next meeting scheduled at the end of the month. Rhetorics from Fed member, Evans has triggered a deep decline last week by half a percent at the end of the year. Investors are following the data releases closely, concerned by the possibility of the ECB to follow the Fed in monetary easing.

Yesterday, the euro major pair dropped below the support of 1.1237. Consequently, the pair broke to the range which was sustained for almost a week. The fall of the trend opened the path to the psychological handle of 1.1200 and further below seems attractive.

The support of 1.1188 remained higher in the middle of June, which then resulted to a rally above 1.1400. In turn, this will be the border limit for the EUR/USD bulls.

In the short-term, traders will likely to meet resistance to the level of 1.1237, which was the lower border in the previous range. It may push the pair above 1.1265 to make it attractive for bulls. After a break in the range, bears have taken over for short-period of time.

After the inflation headline, the euro major pair rose slightly from support with an upward resistance met at 1.1237 as mentioned earlier. The next downward level will probably 1.1188 to be significant.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 18, 2019

A weakened dollar influenced a recovery rally from the euro major pair. With the market expected to have an aggressive easing, it seems that the push is not likely to reach a higher break.

Moreover, we have to keep in mind the bullish engulfing candle in DXY following optimistic retail sales on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar index declines for the second successive trading hours after the sharp increase of retail sales.

The EUR/USD pair tests the horizontal level of 1.1237. So far, the trend moves with an upward direction for the week so far. An important confluence on the resistance should also be noted.

At the same time, a confluence to 1.1245 with the 50- and 100-MA, which was the peak for the day so far. Below, the 1.1200 handle keeps the pair higher and remains major support in the short-term.

For the week, there is no market data anticipated for the week, unless a headline comes out to influence the market. Hence, a drop in volatility is likely.

Overall, even if the greenback weakens today, the euro major pair may have less trading. At the beginning of the day, the common currency is in a flat state. Meanwhile, the Sterling pound has been the strongest contender as the UK sales on retail push the pair higher.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 22, 2019

There were volatile movements last week as Fed members give their opinions with a majority seems to be tilting to policy easing. However, one Fed member opinion to wait should be noted. This results in a sharp decline in the pair and surge in volatility on different assets on Friday.

Thereby, markets focal point will be on the ECB with an expected schedule on Thursday.

Previously, the ECB had a hawkish sentiment, which is unexpected and furthermore, the price hike is postponed but it still in consideration.

On the other hand, the ECB president gives off a dovish sentiment since the postponement, which is hoping to be confirmed on the upcoming Thursday meeting.

Meanwhile, markets are still eyeing the Fed but are expected to diminish in the coming week. Aside from the ECB meeting, the Fed has this “blackout period” as they remain quiet without any interviews. Although, this will likely be transient.

Lastly, the latest GDP data will be published from the US on Friday, which is considered important prior to the meeting of the central bank.

It seems that the pair tries to break a flag pattern that gives a bullish sentiment considering last week’s rally. However, given the sharp drop from Thursday high, I don’t have high hopes for a bullish flag.

Moreover, it seems that the euro major pair is placed between the 1.1200 and 1.1280. For now, the pair is at the lower limit of the range. The declining trend following a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart is likely to put pressure on the recovery rally of the pair in the next trading hours.

If the pair breaks beyond the range early this week, we can expect strong trading, where the ECB becomes the main driver in the direction for this week movement. Hence, the attention of investors will be directed to the ECB actions if they will also proceed with policy easing.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 23, 2019

The euro currency keeps on declining as traders look for chances of sell stops on Tuesday with the anticipation of the ECB chief Draghi, to reduce rates in September to be discussed on ECB policy meeting on the 25th of the month.

Earlier, the trend declined when the sellers were able to work out the 1.1200 with the main trend is now in a downward direction. Afterwhich, the price pushed to the main level below at 1.1193 and 1.1181.

Sellers were also able to break through the long-term Fibo level of 1.1185 with the resistance level from 1.1278 to 1.1318. As a result, the euro major pair has a bearish trend.

At the moment, the price is found at 1.1178 and the future movement of the pair will highly depend on traders' reaction to the Fibo level of 1.1185.

If the price stays below 1.1185, this would mean the dominance of sellers and further movement to 1.1181 would mean a stronger presence of sellers. This could result in a break to 1.1161, which was previous support prior to the main bottoms at 1.1116 (May 30) and 1.1107 (May 23).

On the other hand, returning to the level of 1.1185 would mean the presence of buyers. In turn, this could lead to resistance levels of 1.12143/15. However, we should look for sellers and break to 1.1215 could mean faster acceleration to the upper level.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 25, 2019

Markets are hoping for a dovish sentiment from the ECB since other central banks have made their decisions. Although, this if not far from the June ECB meeting but not as dovish than expected. This resulted in an increase and then Draghi expressed their sentiments on considering the risks.

Now, the markets are considering easing from the ECB even today’s meeting. Although, some analysts have different opinions in mind as they are expecting it in September instead. Overall, volatility will highly depend on the decision, either become dovish or hawkish than anticipated by the markets.

Thus, we can expect a reaction given the markets’ statement of a probable rate cut. This time is different from the previous meetings since it is not about the press conference. If the price further declines, it is not far from stops induced below 2019 low, which can minimize volatility. Thus, I would aim for the level of 1.14027.

If we push lower from here, I think it is inevitable that stops will get triggered below the 2019 low. This can trigger a volatile downside move. In such a scenario, I would be looking for a move to 1.1027.

However, if the price turns out bullish, there can be few levels to be considered important. Initially, it will be around 1.1184, which was the previous high in March and April. At the same time, this caused a reversal in the middle of June. If the markets can reach as high as 1.1265 on an intraday basis, this would favor trade scalpers. This rate offers resistance beyond the usual range for ECB.

Support was held higher for the year at 1.1118 and a surge in volatility can take place in case it goes lower, which is likely to be the limit with today’s ECB meeting. It can stop from here if the ECB becomes dovish than anticipated. Yet, if the rate doesn’t decline, then we can see the pair to rise to 1.1184.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 29, 2019

The dollar rallies prior to the Fed meeting, which puts the dollar bears in a difficult situation to keep their stance this week. Meanwhile, the dollar is about to reach the yearly high with inversely correlated to the euro major pair that will closely breakthrough the two-year low.

The price holds higher than the level of 1.1118 on the daily chart, although the ups are short. Volatility is expected to be present with the scheduled meeting of central banks this week.

In the previous week, the pair declined after the ECB meeting but only occurred to have a higher reversal. The resistance at 1.1188 is where sellers joined the trading. However, looking that the pair returned back to the support level, which could mean that there is not enough momentum for buying.

Also, major currencies are met with important support against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, there is no strong technical movement for a turn here. Yet, it may not be wise for tailgating for a breakthrough.

If the price breaks lower than the horizontal level of 1.1118, it could possibly attempt to test again the lower limit of the trend channel which was previously kept higher. This kept the price movement on the 4-hour chart.

On the other hand, if the price rises higher than 1.1135, this would open the chance to go higher with the resistance level remains at 1.1188 as an after-effect of ECB decision.

In the meantime, the volatility is likely to increase this week with various risks to move the markets. Yet, the mentioned resistance of 1.1188 remains to be a key resistance that traders have to face after ECB last week.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 30, 2019

The economic data will not do much to induce volatility to the EUR/USD pair prior to the release of Fed meeting. The currency pair keeps the trades close to the support at 1.12100 after a loss of 2% for the week. Meanwhile, the pair is less likely to reach below the support, prior to tomorrow’s Fed meeting.

In today’s North American session, the US inflation data will be released. Even though the release of the PCE price index will have a minor impact on the market and barely drives it to move. Hence, it is worth observing the pair. Subdued inflation is the primary reason that drove the Fed to ease its policy. At the same time, the PCE index will reflect it if this is the case.

Bids are seen in the early trading of the euro major pair at the European session and attempt to break higher. If the currency moves higher than 1.1150, a break is highly likely in the early trading range and induce a bigger recovery.

A horizontal level of 1.1188 keeps the pair from falling down after the ECB meeting last week. It seems that level remains to be a significant level with further resistance around 1.1200 handle.

Bigger resistance is at bay around the area of 1.1240 with the convergence to the level of 50- and 100-MA. Yet, it seems that the pair will not get too far on the daily trend prior to the Fed meeting.

The level below 1.1118 seems to be important as initial resistance and the major support around 1.1100 handle. This support level has kept the pair lower and it is presumed to decline in the Wednesday Fed meeting.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 2, 2019

On Wednesday, the markets were signaled by the Fed that they do not intend to begin a reduction cycle. For now, they will analyze the risks of the situation and then, they will adjust the policy if needed.

In effect, this put the market to set back as they positioned on the expectation of a start of the easing cycle. However, this returned not long after for rate cut in the short-term.

The recent statement of US President Donald Trump to add a tariff on Chinese imports, signifying that trade war talks are not yet settled. In turn, this induces an aversion to risks on metals while gains are reversed on equities.

A chance for a rate cute grew in September and the money markets are almost ready to get ready for the reduction.

Moreover, the pair also showed a reversal candlestick on the daily chart. Yesterday, the bullish trend indicates a strong buying kept the pair to bid on a decline.

Despite the release of the jobs report, the market sentiment is not likely to have a big change as they are getting ready for the rate cut.

The significant resistance level is at 1.1118, which kept the pair rising higher in April-May prior to Fed decision on Wednesday. A breakout would be important and could induce a trend reversal. Nonetheless, the US employment data will bring volatility today.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 5, 2019

Last week, the headlines on US president Trump publicized the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods has had a big impact on the US dollar rate. Alongside with it, this occurred simultaneously with the markets placing bets on another rate cut in September given the dovish decision of the Fed.

Considering the CME Fed watch tool, a rate cute is probable in September by about 50 basis points in a quarter percentage chance. This is not surprising but trade tariffs add could adjust the sentiment at the next Fed meeting.

EUR/USD trend changes swiftly and whose central bank, the ECB or the Fed, will ease their policies becomes uncertain already even daily. On a positive note, it seems like the technical analysis becomes more stable even if the fundamental outlook looks hazy.

The recent gains of euro major pair were primarily due to the weakened dollar and commodity instruments are in red in this month.

The level of 1.1118 plays a significant role in the trend. An upward rally countered the earlier breakdown. Hence, it is likely for the pair to drop at the beginning of the week to be sustained in this area.

The area of 1.1118 was considered to be either resistance and support. This level limits short-term gains. If we can sustain the rally tomorrow or the day after, the next probable target is around 1.1230 given the convergence of the 50- and 100MA.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 7, 2019

Recently, the news concerning the trade war between the US and China urged traders to act relative to the Chinese exchange rate.

Some resistance establishes from 200-MA on the 4-hour daily chart and a strong confluence of 50- and 100-MA to 1.1230.

A push higher than the resistance level took place on the intraday and closed below it. A Doji candle indicates exhaustion and builds a pullback. A bearish engulfing candle was seen just after the European open.

It seems that the pair is descending. A strong bullish tone pushes the rally of the pair at the beginning of the week. This also opens a chance for a reversal in the short-term. The pair returned to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. This can give a sign when the pair reaches the top price for the week.

In general, volatility can spark concerning the trade war. Also, there is not much going on in the economic calendar, except for the speech from Fed member Evans which remains the focus in the trading session ahead.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 9, 2019

A tweet of US President Trump has once again spiked volatility but trading of EUR/USD pair still remains in the range. He remarked his disappointment in the strength of the dollar due to higher rates than other nations. Looking at the news, three central banks in India, New Zealand and Thailand had reduced their interest rates with 35, 50 and 25 basis points, respectively.

German trade balance and French industrial production data came out less than expected at the earlier part of the day, although this did not really have an impact on the trading. Another report on the producer price index will be released at the US session. Although, it doesn’t usually bring volatility.

Yesterday the euro major pair remains strong as it did not go down with just right significant resistance confluence.

The support level of 1.1188 keeps the pair from moving higher so far. Closing above this level today could lead to a reversal morning star candlestick on the weekly chart. Hence, the bidding of the pair will likely continue until next week.

Moreover, it is logical for the pair to continue range-bound trading given the quiet economic calendar.

As we noted earlier, the resistance is important while the 200-MA moves in a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart. But at the same time, the 50- and 100-MA are also considered important.

Overall, the euro major pair will persist to trade within the range and probably attempt to hold the pair prior to the upcoming trading session. The pair is likely to have a reversal pattern on the weekly chart.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 14, 2019

Given the volatility in the markets, the decline of the common currency markets is nothing compared to the volatility across the markets. Risky assets rose after Trump announced postponing the imposition of 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Nonetheless, the euro major pair keeps in range over a week.

The GDP growth dropped by 0.1% in the second quarter, meeting analysts’ expectations. However, this does affect much the rate. Data from Europe came out softer than anticipated, which resulted in the EUR/USD pair to ease lower.

It seems that the short-term trading of the EUR/USD pair is headed downward after several attempts on the resistance above.

Meanwhile, let us take into consideration a reversal candlestick on the weekly chart after a rally last week. This trend keeps purchases on a decline.

The pair is trading between the 100- and 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. Yet, the range remains strong even if it slightly weakened. A horizontal level is found close to the 100-MA at 1.1155. The horizontal level acted as a resistance before and a slight confluence was formed.

There is still a strong level around 1.1118, which was tested several times this year. If the pair is able to move lower, this level plays strongly for a decline. Yet, even if there are fundamental news that affects the market, the euro major pair manages to remain in range. Meanwhile, dips can still be bought considering the reversal pattern on the weekly chart.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 16, 2019

A bullish morning star pattern was seen after the surge of the EUR/USD pair last week. Yet, the significant support level of 1.1118 is not yet established, which means that the bears can be in control of the movement. This area is important as this held various declines for this aside from a short drop below in latter days of July.

On Thursday, US economic data was released that shows better than forecast that supports the US dollar. Retail sales grew by 0.7% in July, more than the 0.3% forecast of an increase. This excludes the automobile and gas, which then prompted the data to increase by 1.0%.

Trade balance from Eurostat is also to be released soon. Also, there is the consumer sentiment and building permits from the United States. Although, there are not likely to keep the impact on the exchange rate.

The significant level of EUR/USD pair was broken and there will also be not many purchases. Moreover, the pair begins to enter the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart.

The support level is around the area of 1.1075, which makes the lowest close on a daily basis for the year. Moving forward, the next probable target is around 1.1027, which was the August low.

It is not likely for the pair to break again for another fresh yearly low today, considering few expected fundamental events on the economic calendar.

Closing of the pair today is relevant. If the pair manages to keep the current levels, there will be a reverse bullish trend of last week’s reversal pattern. More importantly, this will confirm the resumption of the EUR/USD downtrend.

The overall momentum of the EUR/USD pair is downward, although the pair begins to oversell on the 4-hour chart. In comparison to a basket of major currency pairs, the common currency is likely to have its biggest loss. Yet, even if there is a light economic schedule, the news may induce some volatility in the pair.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 20, 2019

The euro major pair faces pressure for the whole week but still, the dollar strengthened as the DXY index rises higher than the resistance. It was able to close higher than 98.25 daily level, which was the same level that kept the price lower in April and May and almost close to the two-year high.

Although the decline is not purely because of the EUR/USD pair as the euro is pressured against major currencies over the past week. Market's attention will then shift to the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. For now, there is the PPI from Germany which is expected to come out higher than the forecast.

The levels of 1.1075 (upper) and 1.1118 (lower) were important yesterday. The previous level was kept as sellers entered the market prior to reaching the latter level, which also limited the recovery. The price movement shows weakness, especially in an attempt to test again the support level today.

Moreover, it is important to see how far the pair can go and if it will reach a fresh new yearly low prior to the Fed meeting tomorrow. Thus, it may not be wise to push the price lower in the current condition.

At a later session, we can expect resistance to continue around 1.1118 amid a rally. It needs to reach the level higher in changing the short-term direction of the pair.

A breakdown at 1.1075 opens the yearly low at 1.1027. If it successfully moves lower than 1.1027 today, then we might encounter some stops. In spite of that, the pair might have a difficult time to break the level and keep the flow without a specific driver to cause such movement.

There are not many events to look out for in the economic calendar prior to the expected Fed meeting on Wednesday.
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 22, 2019

In the beginning, the market reaction induced volatility. However, the euro major pair kept the pair in range and was ahead for the week. At the same time, the future markets have revised lower their expectations for further reduction. Although, they have already priced in another cut in September.

The result of PMI data has kept strong bidding at the beginning of Thursday trading. Other data including the Manufacturing and Services PMI figure of France, Germany, and the Eurozone came out better than expected by analysts.

The euro major pair rallied upward outside its most recent range amid the release of data and prior to losing a bit of its strength.

In the technical analysis, the EUR/USD support level is at 1.1074, which was the lowest daily close in 2019. Also, the US dollar index (DXY) begins to pull back from the resistance level of 98.25.

If the pair keeps the price higher than the support level, then there is a higher chance for recovery. However, a break above the 1.1118 mark could confirm the recovery of the pair, which was a horizontal level that drops slightly higher than the range high.

Looking at the fundamental news, the ECB will release the Fed minutes today, particularly the PMI figure. Aside from that, the symposium at Jackson Hole will begin today for three days.

Hence, the euro major pair will likely trade range-bound but various events could affect the pair and induce a breakout, especially with the Jackson hole symposium.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 27, 2019

The Friday rally of the EUR/USD pair was a result of various events, which means that it is just not solely because of concerns in trade war. Soon after, this has changed as President Trump mentioned trade talks are still ongoing.

The common currency faces various risks and has had fluctuations amid the recent shift. Although, this may not be apparent compared to other currency pairs. Trump’s recent comments regarding a phone call between the two nations will likely have an impact on the session ahead.

German GDP data showed a drop by 0.1% in the second quarter as expected. The common currency was not affected after the release of data.

Another data from France came out, particularly the consumer confidence reaching an 18-month high. In the afternoon, data from the US is anticipated to be released.

The euro major pair was found to have a significant confluence of the support with both 50- and 20-MA on the 4-hour chart.

For now, the euro major pair is trying to recover from a sharp decline on Monday. It looks like the support level will be found at this level. Meanwhile, the initial resistance level is at 1.1118, which kept the pair lower on Friday.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 28, 2019

On Friday, the common currency surged on Friday due to concerns of a trade war. Comments of Trump also caused the recovery of the gains for the pair. Although the appetite for risk has diminished as investors reacted to the comment of Trump. The S&P 500 also met some resistance and acquired a few losses yesterday.

Other data such as the consumer confidence from the US yesterday and from Germany earlier this day came out positively that drove yesterday’s trading. Although it seems that the euro major pair is losing momentum. Furthermore, the buyers didn’t get to keep the keep from going down at 1.1100 that may mean weakening of the pair.

There are few economic data that may bring volatility in trading, especially with the upcoming GDP data from the US and Germany tomorrow.

It may be worrisome for EUR/USD bulls that the price did not stay above the level of 1.1100 on Tuesday. This will likely push the pair higher that may mean an upward turn for the pair.

The next downward target will likely be around 1.1075 but there are some hints of exhaustion and the pair will likely move sideways between the European and US session and then breaking slightly lower in the afternoon trading. An important resistance will likely be around 1.1100.

Although, it looks like volatility is moving sluggish but may be influenced by the Sino-US trade war. With the important data from Germany and US expected on Thursday, this could induce volatility and could mean a significant move of the pair.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 29, 2019

Since the North American session yesterday, the euro major pair has been trading sideways and may even have a bigger move with the upcoming significant data.

Concerns on trade wars weren’t as prominent anymore after the recent comment of Trump that both nations are willing to work out the deal. Equity markets are faced with a strong bid in early trading today and countered the decline of the S&P 500 last week. Nonetheless, the euro major pair has had fewer fluctuations with the recent risk sentiment since the return of risk appetite.

The support level at 1.1075 keeps the pair to go higher after several attempts of testing in this month. There may also be a slight bounce from here but in general, sellers are leading this week. Although, we cannot see any turn for now.

Any attempt to rise was limited at the level of 1.1100. Alternately, in case of a decline, the pair is likely to recover.

Moreover, the dollar index (DXY) has also met some sort of resistance. The last figure tested is the level of 98.25 that kept the price lower in April and May. Consequently, the index pulled back by more than 1%. Hence, the dollar and the euro major pair have a likelihood for a slight decline but do far, we can see any technical movement to support this.

There has been volatility and the pair has been trading range-bound. Important fundamental, particularly the US GDP and German CPI, are anticipated and will determine the movement of the EUR/USD pair.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 2, 2019

This week might start with slow trading given the US Labor day. Volatility will probably rise in the latter days of the week, especially with the upcoming US jobs data on Friday and Fed speech.

Also, the progress on the Sino-US trade war will still have an effect on the exchange rate. Jus in the previous week, Trump said that the two nations will proceed with the trade talks, which induced a shift in the markets. In turn, this resulted in a decline in the euro major pair.

The economic data in the eurozone has actually met expectations of analysts, except for the decrease in the manufacturing sector. Overall, reports from Italy, Germany, and the eurozone are declining in the market. Meanwhile, France showed growth in August but data will remain to be a concern for the euro economy.

The decline of the EUR/USD pair on Friday is important as it pushes the rate to a record low over a year. Also, the pair dropped lower than 1.1000 that have an impact on the pair. It seems that the pair proceeds with a decline with the next important support level at 1.0833.

It can be said that the trading rate is slightly oversold present levels. Sometimes, unexpected volatility drove the pair unexpectedly at the end of the month, which is the probable reason for the decline last week.

If the price proceeds with the recovery, sellers will probably touch on the level of 1.1100. HIgher than that is where the resistance is found at 1.1030, which was previously support.

In general, the euro major pair is moving sideways following a drastic drop on Friday. Moreover, volatility will likely be slow with the present US holiday but attempts for recovery will be blocked by sellers around 1.1000 then towards 1.1030.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 3, 2019

Price movement in the EUR/USD pair is intriguing as it recovered instead of a breakdown, which is unexpected by traders and oftentimes occur much later and outside the range.

We cannot be so sure that this would not be the case, although this is possible. One scenario is the oversold state of the EUR/USD pair for a while now. While trading in a range, this gives a signal for the possibility of a pullback. However, the pair is likely to move in the oversold zone for some time.

With the euro declining against other bearish currencies, it will be not ideal to search for a pullback towards the medial levels, which was the case last year. The common currency also trades against the lows of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. As for the case of the sterling pound, it is still pressured with the ongoing Brexit negotiation.

I assume that it is highly likely for the attempts for recovery to be faced by the sellers instead of a pullback. We can wait for the resistance to reach at 1.0979 and then a bounce to 1.0911. Nonetheless, no purchases at the present descending motion signals for a technical breakdown but sustained break to 1.1050 opposes a breakout.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 4, 2019

Yesterday, the main level above is at 1.1050. A sustained downward trend from the seller would confirm the descend.

The short-term momentum is leaning to the upside. Yesterday, The currency pair showed a bullish candle on the daily chart, which we should look into. In case the pair closes around 1.100 by the end of the day, this will signal further upward movement in the short-term.

It seems that the recovery of the major British pound adds pressure to the US dollar that overshadows the EUR/USD pair. Although, we must also keep in mind that the volatility of Sterling can rise by the end of the week amid the political uncertainty with Brexit.

Overall, the euro major pair shows a strong uptrend after yesterday’s low. For short-term, it is bullish but extending it a bit shows a bearish outlook. In the meantime, sellers could make use of the recovery.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 5, 2019

Today, ADP data from the US will be published, which will give an initial outlook on the current state of the job market in August. Other than that, some PMI data will be released during the North American session that can also induce volatility. So far, analysts anticipate a continuous growth for the reports. Important talks will take place in early October.

On Friday, data on Non-Farm Payroll is scheduled and this will have a bigger impact on the market. Of course, concerns on China-US trade war will still affect the price movement as well.

The rally yesterday continued and formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Overall, the technical outlook shows a breakdown, which is contradicting to the bullish indicator.

The direction of the pair in the major resistance level will be relative to the reaction of the market in the current price movement. Important psychological levels are 1.1033 and 1.1053, which shows important support to the pair in August that can become an obstacle for the price to rise.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 6, 2019

So far, the euro is moving lower after publishing the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which would weigh on Fed’s decision regarding the interest rate in September. Furthermore, this would reflect the stability of the economy.

The main trend is descending on the daily chart. However, the momentum shows its movement rising since the price reversal bottom formed at 1.0926 on September 3.

A breakthrough to 1.1164 could shift the trend higher. However, if it moves towards 1.0926 instead, then this will oppose the closing price reversal boot and indicate the continuation of a downward trend.

The main range between 1.1164 and 1.0926 with the retracement zone at 1.1045 to 1.1073 offering as a resistance. This limits the short-term movement of the EUR/USD pair. Buyers could test the short-term range at 1.0926-1.1085 in hopes to reach for a much higher bottom with the retracement zone at 1.1005 to 1.0987 as the probable support.

Today’s price movement will depend on the reaction of traders at the price range of 1.1045-1.1046 and currently, the price is at 1.1029.

If the price remains below the 1.1045, this would mean the presence of sellers and could push the short-term price by 50% at 1.1005 with the next support around 1.0987 to 1.0986. However, moving past the area of 1.0985 would cause the pair to descend around 1.0956 and 1.0941 before the main bottom of 1.0926.

On the other hand, a price movement higher than 1.1046 would indicate the presence of buyers and could bring the price upward with the next target at 1.1073 to 1.1074 and then to 1.1085. It could further rise to 1.1119, which is a potential pint for upward movement.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 26, 2019

After a sharp increase of the Dollar on Wednesday trading, the price slides down and moving close to a significant support level.

The horizontal support level is at 1.0930 kept the pair higher for two times this month and every test will result in a rally towards the area of 1.10. If the pair breaks down, it could reach a new 28-month low.

News on Trump’s impeachment did not keep the dollar from rising as if the markets aren’t affected at all. Meanwhile, the latest US GDP data will be published today and the forecast expects a 2% growth in the second quarter. A speech from the ECB president Mario Draghi could induce some volatility when considering the monetary policy of the economy.

The euro major pair will likely have a breakout to a new multi-year low but the question now is whether the decline will continue. So far, the pair trades range-bound most of the month and begin to be a bit oversold on short-term timeframes.

For this year, most of the time the price has been fluctuating between declining and dropping into a range. Hence, I would be a bit cautious to see if this will be a full-blow breakdown.

If the price rises in the next session, sellers will try to defend the level of 1.0966, which has been the lowest daily close in the first half of the month.

The pair trades close to the level of 1.0930 during the North American trading session today should also be noted. If the pair stays higher, we can expect a slight bounce of the pair.

On the contrary, the price will likely have stops accumulated below the level of 1.0930 as traders look for a double bottom potential. Therefore, the price can have dipped below and may induce stops. The resistance of 1.0966 keeps recovery rallies the upcoming trading session.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 27, 2019

The US dollar index that measures the value of the greenback against a basket of major currencies is now about to break a 28-month high. Meanwhile, the euro major pair has broken to an equivalent low that seems to lead to further losses.

So far, only the New Zealand dollar has taken the lead against the greenback while the British pound has been the weakest for this week as it went down by 1.5% against the dollar.

Data releases from Europe similar to inflation came in weaker than anticipated earlier today. The German import price dropped by 0.6% in August compared to the previous 0.3%. Also, the CPI in France has declined by 0.3% in the present month. As for Consumer spending, it was flat and did not meet the expectations of analysts.

Economic data to be released later this day will include the US durable goods orders and personal spending figure. The data will typically not induce a volatile reaction in the trading rate.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 30, 2019

The EUR/USD pair hasn’t fallen this low since May 2017 as the dollar takes the lead. The pair broke lower at the support level of 1.0930 that could induce a breakout, although, the pair was able to return back above the level. However, the pair has moved back and forth that makes it uncertain whether that pair can have a full breakdown.

A driver is needed for a stronger decline but given the economic calendar for the week, it will likely be a political one. The main focus of economic release for the week is the US jobs report that is to be released on Friday.

The euro major pair rose higher than the major level of 1.0930, which kept the price from declining at the beginning and near the middle of the month. Its recovery raises the question on its resumption of decline but for now, the pair moves strongly downward.

A breakout above the resistance may reason limit the descent of the pair. As of now, the resistance level is seen at 1.0966. The upward movement of the pair resides close to the level that forms a slight confluence.

A breakdown to 1.0930 would attract more sellers. Hence, the initial support level is close to the area of 1.0900, which buyers defended late last week. With the upcoming US jobs report, the volatility will increase in the late week. On the headlines, news on the impeachment of Trump continues.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: November 05, 2019

The dollar received significant support after the release of Friday data from the US. Labor market statistics exceeded all expectations of market players, which eased concerns about the upcoming recession in the United States. In October, the number of new jobs increased to 128 thousand, while experts predicted growth to just 85 thousand. The ISM business activity index also recovered slightly (48.3 points in October against 47.8 in September).

This week is not rich in macroeconomic data, but today the ISM Service Sector Index can attract attention (at 18:00 Moscow time). If the indicators are at quite stable levels, this may support the dollar in the coming days.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair fell on Tuesday to the level of 1.1125. The dollar feels confident, therefore, during the day, the strengthening of the US currency will continue. The main goal of the dollar “bulls” is the 1.1100 area.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. November 06, 2019 – Dollar will continue growing to the area of 1.1050

Positive news from the front of trade talks between the US and China is supporting the whole range of risky assets. As a result the EUR/USD pair suspended its decline in the area of ​​1.1050 and began to grow to 1.1100. However, the correction of the euro will not be long as the US currency continues to remain strong. During the day, we expect the return of euro quotes to the area of ​​1.1050.

The day before the US dollar got significant support from the publication of US data: the ISM index in the non-manufacturing sector grew up to 54.7 points against expectations the indicator at the level of 53.5 points. Moreover, the dollar receives additional support from the comments of the Fed representatives, signaling the likely completion of a cycle of rate cuts in the United States.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. November 07, 2019 – The positive news on trade talks support the euro

The full range of risky assets received support against the rise of the the news that the US and China agreed on the mutual abolition of duties on part of imported goods. This was stated today by representatives of Chinese Ministry of Commerce, which also noted that further actions of USA and PRC will depend on success in concluding a comprehensive trade deal. As a result, the pair managed to recover from the level of 1.1050 to the level of 1.1090.

However, market players doubt that global trade disagreements between the two largest economies in the world can be resolved at once by signing a nominal deal. Therefore, the risks of further problems in relations between the two countries are still high, and optimism about the success of trade debates may turn out to be short-lived.

Thus, during the day the EUR/USD pair will moderately grow to the level of 1.11.
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KostiaForexMart
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GBP/USD. November 08, 2019 – Pound consolidates near 1.28

The British sterling fell to a two-week low at 1.2800. Yesterday the Bank of England kept the key rate unchanged at 0.75%, although two out of nine members of the Committee voted for an immediate reduction in the rate by 25 bp. This results surprised markets, as it was the first split of opinions for the last year. At the same time, the Central Bank lowered its GDP forecast for 2020 and 2021 and the short-term forecast for inflation. According to these forecasts, the regulator suggests only one reduction in interest rates over the next 3 years.

Representatives of the British regulator are concerned about the weak labor market in the country, the slowdown in the global economy, as well as further uncertainty concerning the Brexit issue. Thus, the pair pound/dollar shows a decline below the area of ​​1.28 and keeps here in a stable flat. During the day, we expect further weakening of the British currency.
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KostiaForexMart
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USD/CAD. November 11, 2019 – Canadian dollar weakens after labor market data

The USD/CAD pair managed to gain a foothold above 1.3200 after the release of weak data on the labor market in Canada, which turned out to be much worse than analysts' forecasts. Experts expected that employment growth would slow from 53 thousand to 15, but current data showed an unexpected decrease in the number of jobs by 1.8 thousand.

Despite the fact that the growth in average wages accelerated, Friday's data reflected the weakness of the Canadian labor market and increased the likelihood of an interest rate reduction by the Bank of Canada by the end of this year.

Against this background, the USD/CAD pair rose to the level of 1.3225 and continue to consolidate in this area at the beginning of the week. Today we expect further moderate growth of the US dollar to 1.3250.
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