"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.28.02.2017Euro General overviewAccording to the European commission research held on Monday, investors became more confident about the Eurozone, as it was expected in February. Industry confidence grew, while manufacturing expectations posted losses.
Current situation After a sharp sell-off on Friday the euro seems to have found a strong support in the 1.0550 region. The level rejected the spot which managed to reverse a half of Friday's losses. European buyers continued pushing the price higher approaching the 1.0600 level in the first part of the day. The pair tested the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart and stayed below the moving average. The 50-EMA turned upwards, 100-EMA kept heading lower, while 200-EMA was neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 1.0600, the support comes in at 1.0550.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.
Trading recommendationsEUR/USD awaits for the US data for fresh impetus. Meanwhile, any recovery is likely to be considered a good selling opportunity. A move below 1.0550 would revive bearishness towards 1.0500.
Pound General overview The pound dropped versus the majors following the news that the UK Government plans to hold a potential Scotland independence referendum. None of the officials commented on it, but even the rumor made the cable to drop down.
Current situation Sellers lost strength on Friday after testing the 1.2400 level which rescued buyers once again. After touching the handle the price remained within its region in the night. European traders started to push the price higher in the early trades but did not advance much and returned to the support in the mid European session The price broke all the moving averages downwards and continued trading below them in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and the 50 EMAs were neutral while the 200-EMA maintained its bullish slope in the same chart. The resistance lies at 1.2500, the support comes in at 1.2400.
MACD indicator was at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. The RSI indicator was holding near oversold levels, favoring a new move lower.
Trading recommendations After a daily close below 1.2400, GBP/USD will likely target the 1.2370 mark.
Yen General overviewThe dollar slightly recovered from two-week lows in Asian session on Monday. However, the US dollar lacked an upward impulse awaiting for Donald Trump's speech regarding his tax reform.
Current situation After meeting a barrier at 112.00 the price bounced off the level. Buyers failed to advance far from the handle and stayed around it the fist part of the day. According to 4 hours chart the price continued developing well below the moving averages. The 50 and 200 EMAs maintained their bearish slope, while 100-EMA was neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 113.00, the support comes in at 112.00.
MACD remained at the same level which confirms the strength of sellers. RSI indicator was near undervalued territory, favoring a move higher.
Trading recommendations The USD/JPY pair needs to regain at least the 113.00 zone to ease the immediate bearish pressure. Meanwhile we will sell until the spot is below the mentioned level.
NZD/USD Current situation After a sell-off on Friday the kiwi remained neutral on Monday morning. Sellers met a barrier at 0.7200 and were struggling hard to break it during the European hours. The price was sandwiched between 200-EMA and 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100-EMA kept heading lower and touched the 200-EMA which kept pointed higher while 50-EMA turned neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance is highlighted at 0.7200, the support comes in at 0.7150.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI was neutral.
Trading recommendations As the most probable scenario, we consider further moving downwards towards the level at 0.7150.
XAU/USD Current situation Gold opened the week inside of a consolidation zone after Friday’s rally. The upward impetus lost strength around 1260 dollars per ounce. Buyers gave up their recent gains and had to retreat on the back of profit-taking. Sellers drove the price lower and reached 1255 in the mid European session. According to 4 hours chart the price was above the moving averages which were all pointing higher. The resistance exists at 1260, the support stands at 1250 dollars per ounce.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The RSI indicator was near overvalued territory, favoring a move lower.
Trading recommendations A close below the support at 1250 could see XAU/USD extend its declines down to 1240. Nevertheless, the upward structure remained in place. The lower limit of the upward channel lies around 1240. Buyers may find fresh bids around the level.
The 1260 is a big psychological level which means that we are bound to see some thick action around it.
Brent General Overview Oil prices recovered back to the eight week highs on Monday as investors are still confident that OPEC's output cuts would outweigh an increase in the United States crude inventories. Moreover, OPEC's efforts to hold the oil prices from falling were supported by the reports from China.
Current situation Oil prices rebounded from the oversold zone in the Asian session. Sellers failed to regain 55.50 and gave the way to buyers. Buyers took a chance and had reversed all Friday' losses by the Monday's noon. Traders pushed the price higher and pierced 56.50 in the mid-European session. After touching the level the upward trajectory lost its strength, the price bounced from the level and edged lower. The price tested the 200-EMA, rebounded upwards in the 4 hours chart. Brent broke 100-EMA and 50-EMA upwards afterwards. The 50-EMA and 200-EMA turned upwards, while 100-EMA was neutral in the same timeframe. The resistance lies at 56.50, the support comes in at 55.50 dollars per barrel.
MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI remained within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations When we break the level 56.50 the support 55.50 comes back into play.
DAX General overviewEuropean stocks opened mixed on Monday following the inspiring reports of some companies and Intesa Sanpaolo rally. However, a sharp fall of London and Deutsche Stock Exchange limited stocks advance.
Current situation DAX gapped higher at the open on Monday. Buyers failed to advance beyond the level and after posting the daily high at 11867 the price reversed its direction. Sellers retuned the price to 11800 filling the gap in the mid European session. The index rebounded from 100-EMA upward and tested 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages turned neutral in the mentioned timeframe. The resistance exists at 11900, the support stands at 11800.
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The MACD histogram decreased which is a sell signal. RSI remained within neutral territory.
Trading recommendations A sharp breakout above 11800 could spark a further incline towards 11700 in the coming sessions.
S&P500 General overviewWall Street opened lower on Monday as investors waited for President Donald Trump’s speech to Congress. The president had to reveal his plans regarding taxes, trade and public investment.
Current situation S&P500 posted fresh all-times high in the Asian session on Monday. Buyers managed to lead the price to 2370 where the upward momentum lost its legs. Bulls gave up their gains and stepped away. Sellers led the benchmark lower and erased all buyers’ gains. The 4 hours chart showed that the benchmark bounced off the 50-EMA upwards. The price remained above the moving averages which were all pointing higher in the same timeframe. The resistance is at 2380, the support comes in at 2360.
MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI oscillator stayed near overbought levels.
Trading recommendations We maintain our positive outlook for the index. The ongoing decline is just a correction. The index may weaken to 2350 where the lower limit of the upward channel lies. A break lower will ease the upward pressure towards 2340. A failure here will return rally towards 2370, en route 2380.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services,
Alexander Kofman