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HFblogNews  
#241 Posted : Wednesday, May 30, 2018 5:09:59 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 30th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2018.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and the 10-year is at 2.804%, up 2.3 bp on the day, but still firmly below 3% as confidence in the Fed rate path evaporates amid widening market turmoil. Yields in Asia remained under pressure as risk aversion dominated and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.016% while the sell off in stocks continued. The Nikkei is down -1.54%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -1.63% and -1.29% respectively after the U.S. closed with broad losses.Spanish yields meanwhile are still jumping higher and gained 10.6 bp so far, suggesting special factors rather than a wider stabilisation of sentiment is at play in the case of Italy. The situation looks similar at the short end, where the Italian 2-year yield is down -47.3 bp. Italy’s political turmoil and renewed concern about trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment and a stronger yen added to pressure on Japanese markets. U.S. futures are also heading south and the correction in stocks doesn’t seem to have run its course yet. The calendar still has the Swiss KOF, French consumer spending and Q1 GDP, German jobless numbers, ESI economic confidence data and most importantly preliminary German HICP inflation, with the latter expected to pick up to 1.8% y/y.

German retail sales jump 2.3% m/m in April. A much stronger rebound from the dip in March than anticipated. With March numbers revised up to -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m, the annual rate still fell back to 1.2% from 1.7% y/y in the previous month, although the timings of Easter are likely to still distort the annual comparison. The numbers are volatile and often subject to heavy revisions, but the rebound over the month is still a positive sign after a raft of disappointing data that cast a shadow over the German growth outlook.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Main Macro Events Today

* German Unemployment Change & HICP – Expectations – Unemployment change expected unchanged at 5.3% y/y in May, while German HICP is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y.

* US ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – seen rising 188k in May from 204k in April.

* US Goods Trade Balance & Prelim. GDP – Expectations – Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP, which anticipated to remain at 2.3%, unchanged from the initial release.

* BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change to the current 1.25% policy setting alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”


Support & Resistance Levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#242 Posted : Thursday, May 31, 2018 5:04:28 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 31st May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2018.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.850%, while yields rose across Asia as stock markets rallied. 10-year GDP yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.028%, Australia and China underperformed. Like European and U.S. stocks yesterday, equity markets across Asia recovered from the bout of heightened risk aversion as Eurozone breakup risks were being priced out again. China’s official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved which saw CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp outperforming with gains of 1.81% and 1.55% respectively. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.81% and the Hang Seng gained 0.91%. There is still plenty of risk with Sino-American trade relations in focus and U.S. tariff exemptions set to run out tomorrow and the Italian crisis is also far from over. So volatility is likely to remain high over the summer, complicating the tasks for global central banks that were heading for more policy normalisation.

FX Action: USDJPY has settled in the mid 108.0s after failing to sustain gains above 109.0 yesterday. Yen crosses are also lower, reflecting a generally firmer yen, albeit moderately so. This is turn reflects a more circumscribed view markets are taking of the situation in Italy, which has returned a bid to the Japanese currency. The Washington Post has also reported, citing three unnamed sources, that President Trump will later today announce tariffs on steel and aluminium on imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU. The month’s end has reportedly generated some demand for the Japanese currency, too. In data, Japan’s April industrial production disappointed at 0.3% m/m growth. The median forecast had been for 1.4% m/m growth, though the data hasn’t had a bearing on forex markets.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Support & Resistance Levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#243 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 4:43:58 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 1st June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st June 2018.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 4.5 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, 2-year yields gained 3.6 bp and are at -0.643%. The rise in rates at the long end mirrors moves in Treasury and JGB yields, which lifted, the latter after the BoJ cut purchases of some debt at its regular operations. Peripherals are outperforming and the Italian 10-year is down -10.1 bp at 2.644%, after a last minute agreement with President Mattarella cleared the way for a populist coalition government, with Giuseppe Conte set to be sworn in today. Spain’s Rajoy meanwhile seems on the way out with the Socialists preparing to take control after reportedly gaining sufficient votes to win a vote of no confidence against Rajoy today. Stock futures are moving higher in Europe and the U.S. on the day Trump’s long announced tariffs finally come into effect. The EU’s countermeasures will start with the May 18 list of duties in U.S. goods ranging from Whiskey to Jeans, hardly the top of EU imports from the U.S. and there is lingering hope that despite the harsh tones from all sides, the high stakes will bring them back to the negotiating table. Data releases today focus on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland.

Trump administration’s announcement that it was proceeding with slapping tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada. The U.S. also hit Mexico and the EU with the same tariff (even though Mexico is a net buyer of U.S. steel and aluminium), and all three rapidly responded with announcements of counter tariffs. This weighed on global stock markets and underpinned safe havens, including the yen. In the mix were a bag of perky U.S. data releases, including weekly initial claims, personal income and the latest Chicago PMI survey, a spike in Eurozone HICP to 1.9% y/y in the preliminary May estimate from 1.2% y/y in April, above-forecast China manufacturing PMI and a miss in Japanese production data for April.

Canada announced plans to challenge the U.S. tariffs via both NAFTA and the WTO, while Macron of France declared them “a mistake and illegal.” Macron said the decision on the metals tariffs “closes the door on other talks,” though he plans to speak with Trump later tonight. The German economic minister said that the tariffs decision was damaging both for Europe and the U.S., but the transatlantic relationship remains extremely important for Germany.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Final Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5.

* UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipate to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.

* US NFP – Expectations – expected to rise 188,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000.

* US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – estimated to tick up to 58.1 from 57.3 in April.


Support & Resistance Levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#244 Posted : Monday, June 04, 2018 5:04:16 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 4th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2018.


UserPostedImage

Main Macro Events This Week

The strength in the U.S. jobs report helped unwind a lot of the recent angst over trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that many investors feared were jeopardizing the global upswing in growth. The acceleration in the U.S. should override tariff worries, and the momentum should help offset the slowing out of Europe, especially as the uncertainties over the political situations in Italy and Spain have been resolved for now. The markets are likely to be consolidative this week as a number of factors impact.

United States: This week’s calendar is light with few top tier reports, limited Treasury supply, and no Fedspeak given the blackout period ahead of the June 12, 13 FOMC meeting. Earnings have also slowed to a crawl. As for data, the May ISM non-manufacturing numbers (Tuesday) will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. An increase by 0.7 point to 57.5 is expected, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The April JOLTS data (Tuesday) will add some details to the outlook but will be anticlimactic following the employment report. And while it continues to corroborate the strength in the labor market, it also suggests the market may not be as tight as perceived. The April trade report (Wednesday) will be tracked given the tariff uncertainties, and it will also help fine tune the improved Q2 GDP outlook.

Canada: Canadian employment tops a busy week of economic data. The employment report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 20.0k bounce in jobs during May after the 1.1k dip in April, while the unemployment rate holds at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade report (Wednesday) takes second place in the rankings of most-important-release-this-week, with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Q1 productivity (Tuesday) is projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4. Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values. The May Ivey PMI (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip to a still firm 70.0 in May from the seasonally adjusted 71.5 in April that was the firmest reading since the 73.2 seen in March of 2011. May housing starts (Friday) are expected to expand at a 215.0k unit pace, little changed from the 214.4k growth rate in April. Q1 capacity utilization (Friday) is seen rising to 86.1% from the 86.0% in Q4 that was strongest since Q2 of 2007’s matching 86.0%.

The Bank of Canada publishes the twice annual Financial Stability Review (Thursday, 10:30 ET) with a press conference to follow at 11:15 ET. In the November Review, the Bank said the high level of household indebtedness and housing market vulnerabilities were the most important vulnerabilities.

Europe: Political uncertainty in Italy and Spain may be resolved for now. But while the markets celebrated the new governments in Spain and Italy on Friday, the changes could spell trouble for the ECB and the stability of the Eurozone down the line if they bring uncontrolled deficit spending. With that in mind, and spreads having come in again, the chances that the ECB will commit to an end date for QE at the June 14 meeting are rising, especially after the jump in May HICP inflation. German orders data this week will be watched carefully, but even if data disappoints, it would further highlight that the central bank’s window of opportunity for the next step toward policy normalization is closing. Wrapping the end of QE in dovish guidance may be the best way to deal with the current uncertainty.

This week’s round of data includes key German reports, including the April manufacturing orders (Thursday) which are expected to show a 0.7% m/m rebound. German industrial production for April (Friday) and the trade balance (Friday). Final Eurozone Q1 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.The calendar also has final Eurozone May services PMI, Eurozone retail sales and PPI inflation, and a German I/L bond auction Thursday, followed by a 5-year Bobl auction Wednesday. France sells bonds Thursday.

UK: Brexit negotiations will continue this week while the data schedule is fairly quiet, highlighted by the release of the construction and services PMI surveys for May (due Monday and Tuesday, respectively). The construction PMI expected to come in with a headline reading of 52.0, down from 52.5 in April, which would indicate a modest slowing in the pace of expansion. Market participants will be keeping a watch out on the evolving Brexit negotiation, which is in a crucial phase and which remains fluid.

Japan: In Japan, April personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show consumption rising to a 1.0% y/y pace from the previous -0.7%. The second look at Q1 GDP (Friday) is penciled in at -0.4% q/q, modestly improving from the preliminary -0.6% pace. The April current account surplus (Friday) is set to narrow to JPY 2,000.0 bln from 3,122.3 bln.

China’s trade balance (Friday) will get a lot of attention given the trade tensions with the U.S., though we shouldn’t be able to discern any impacts. The balance was at a $28.8 bln surplus in April with gains of 12.7% y/y for exports and 21.5% y/y for imports.

Australia: The RBA’s policy meeting (Tuesday) is expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. In the April meeting, Governor Lowe repeated that the low level of interest rates is supporting the economy. Something similar is expected in the June statement, consistent with a low for long outlook for policy. The data slate is highlighted by Q1 GDP (Wednesday), expected to accelerate to a 0.7% growth rate (q/q, sa) from the 0.4% pace in Q1. Retail sales (Monday) are projected to expand 0.4% (m/m, sa) in April after the flat reading in March. The current account (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to a -A$9.0 bln deficit in Q1 from -A$14.0 bln in Q4. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen narrowing to a A$1.1 bln surplus in April from A$1.5 bln in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#245 Posted : Tuesday, June 05, 2018 4:09:43 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 5th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th June 2018.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.937%, 10-year JGBs unchanged at 0.040%. After putting trade concerns aside and focusing on U.S. growth during the Monday session, stock markets struggled in Asia. The RBA left rates on hold as expected and maintained cautious optimism on the global and local growth outlook while suggesting that wage growth may have bottomed out, which saw the ASX underperforming and down -0.35%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.20% and down -0.05% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.22% and the CSI outperformed with a 0.81% gain. A mixed picture, with markets appearing to take a wait and see stance. U.S. stock futures are slightly in the red, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 65.02 per barrel.

FX Action: EURUSD has steadied above the N.Y. low of 1.1677, though continues to find sellers ahead of the 1.1700 mark. The pairing has steadied well above last week’s 11-month low of 1.1508, largely as the worst of the European political meltdown appears to be behind us for now. This said, there may still be some political fissures yet to bubble up, so EURUSD is expected to remain in sell-the-rally mode.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Markit Services PMI – Expectations – expected to be confirmed at 53.9, leaving the composite at 54.1, down from the previous month, but still pointing to a solid pace of expansion and at least for the manufacturing sector market reported ongoing job creation amid capacity constraints and an overall optimistic view on the outlook over the next 12 months.

* UK Services PMI- Expectations – a dip is anticipated to 53.0 in the headline reading after 52.8 in April.

* US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI – Expectations – will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. A 0.7 point increase has been forecasted to 57.5, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The slight improvement will leave the service sector tracking the expected performance for the May factory surveys which are showing improvement. These readings remain robust, supported by fiscal stimulus as well as stronger global growth.

* Canadian Q1 productivity – Expectations – projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4.

* Speeches: UK MPC Member Cunliffe, German Buba President Weidmann, RBA Assist Gov Bullock

Support & Resistance Levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#246 Posted : Wednesday, June 06, 2018 1:10:28 PM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 6th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2018.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Risk appetite is back and stocks in Asia moved mostly higher in tandem with U.S. futures. Treasury yields picked up and the 10-year yield is at 2.939%, up 1.1 bp. 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.3 bp to 0.043%. Concerns about rising protectionism seem on hold for now, and Nikkei and Topix are up 0.39% and 0.12% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.52%. The CSI 300 meanwhile is down -0.20%, in tandem with Shanghai and Shenzen Comps amid lingering concerns about Sino-American relations. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are broadly higher and oil prices are set for a second day of gains and currently trading at USD 65.89 per barrel.

FX Update: Both the dollar and yen have traded softer against most other currencies. EURUSD has edged out a two-week high at 1.1734. EURJPY also posted a two-week peak, though the euro has traded more mixed (i.e. net neutral) versus other currencies, with euro crosses having flattened out for the most part out after rallying over the last week on the shifting Italian political situation. Concerns remain about how viable a government Italy’s unusual Five Star and League populist parties will make; about whether their anti-establishment, Eurosceptic colours will start to show through in policy. USDJPY has remained buoyant, near yesterday’s two-week high at 110.00, aided by AUDJPY strength following forecast-beating GDP data out of Australia, along with a backdrop of mostly higher stock markets in Asia. Strength in tech stocks helped lift stock markets, while Beijing said today that it would buy $70 worth of U.S. goods if the Trump administration lifts steel and aluminium tariffs. Cable built on gains seen yesterday, lifting into two-week high territory above 1.3400. AUDUSD, buoyed by solid Australian growth data, rallied over 0.5% in making a six-week high at 0.7672.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Main Macro Events Today

* Swiss CPI – Expectations – expected rising to a 0.3% m/m from 0.2% m/m in April.

* MPC Member Tenreyro & MPC Member McCafferty Speech

* US Trade Report & Non-Farm Productivity – Expectations – deficit should be unchanged at -$49.0 bln, and much narrower than a cycle-high -$57.7 bln in February. Revised Q1 nonfarm productivity is expected to slow to 0.7% versus the initial estimate of 0.7%.

* Canadian Trade Balance & Building Permits – Expectations – the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Building permits are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values.

* US Crude Oil Inventories

Support & Resistance Levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#247 Posted : Thursday, June 07, 2018 4:34:53 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 7th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2018.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session on improving confidence in the world economy and despite the prospect of tensions at the G7 meeting over the future of trade relationships and U.S. sanctions. The fact that central banks remain on course to reduce stimulus seems to be seen as a sign that the recovery remains intact rather than a threat to equities, at least for now. 10-year Treasury yields are little changed at 2.968%, down -0.4 bp, 10-year JGBs gained 0.4 bp and are at 0.043% amid a broad move higher in yields across Asia. Nikkei and Topix gained 0.93% and 0.66% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.48%, the ASX 0.55%. Mainland China bourses meanwhile erased early gains and are in the red. with concerns about Sino-American trade relations continuing to weigh. U.S. futures are higher though – confirming that the overall mood in equity markets is improving. Oil prices have moved up from lows below USD 65 per barrel and are trading at USD 65.10.

German orders slumped -2.5% m/m in April, with the March reading revised down to -1.1% from -0.9%. The second months of contraction left the annual rate at -0.1%, down from 2.9% y/y in March and the first negative reading since July 2016. Expectations had been for a rebound from the dip in the previous month and while there may be some special factors still at play related to holiday’s and bridging days, the numbers are a worry and will add to concerns that the German recovery is slowing down much faster than feared. The breakdown showed domestic orders in particular weighing down the index, with a drop of -4.8% m/m. Again this may be due to special factors, but the fact that export orders rose for a second months and that Eurozone orders slumped -9.9% m/m, after already falling -2.9% m/m in March cast a shadow over the outlook. This won’t prevent the ECB from phasing out QE by the end of the month, but it highlights that the window of opportunity for the change in direction at the ECB is closing faster than previously thought.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone GDP – Expectations – to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q , but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.

* US Jobless Claims – Expectations – are set to fall 11k to 223k in the week ended May 26, following the prior pop to 234k from 222k in the week of May 12.

* BOC Gov Poloz and MPC Member Ramsden Speeches

Support & Resistance Levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#248 Posted : Friday, June 08, 2018 4:16:03 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

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Date : 8th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2018.


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FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Risk aversion is back and Asian stock markets headed south. After a sell off in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Thursday, technology stocks were also under pressure during the Asian session. Treasury yields meanwhile recovered some of the losses seen in the wake of the weakness in U.S. stocks yesterday, but after reaching a high of 2.479% have started to fall back to now 2.928%, still up 0.7 bp on the day. Asian yields are broadly lower, with 10-year JGBs down -0.2 bp at 0.037%. Stock indices meanwhile are a sea of red, with the Nikkei down -0.35%, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 down -1.35% and -1.37% after narrower than expected trade surplus out of China. China added to the risk off environment and the focus turns to the G7 meeting, which is likely to bring clashes over sanctions and trade. U.S. futures are down and the WTI crude oil is trading at USD 65.75 per barrel.

German trade surplus narrows as exports decline. Germany reported a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.4 bln for April, down from EUR 21.6 bln in the previous month. Meanwhile, German industrial production contracted -1.0% m/m. Expectations had been for a slight rise over the month, but after the unexpected slump in orders yesterday, the weak production number is not a total surprise. At the same time, March data were revised up to 1.7% m/m from 1.0% m/m reported initially, so the trajectory is not as weak as the headline suggests. Annual growth slowed to a still healthy 2.0%, but nevertheless the weakness in orders and surveys showing a markedly less optimistic view on the outlook confirm that the German cycle has peaked and that growth is slowing down. Capacity constraints are partly to blame, but worries about the export outlook amid an increasingly hostile trade environment are clearly also having an impact.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* G7 Meeting

* Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – to hold nearly steady at a 215.0k pace in May from 214.4k in April. Starts have been resilient, holding in a 215k to 230k range since December while existing home sales and prices tumbled beginning in January as new regulations took effect. The resilience in starts growth is consistent with firm underlying momentum in Canada’s housing market.

* Canadian Employment Data – Expectations – to rise 20.0k in May after the 1.1k dip in April. A gain in May would resume the gains seen in February (+15.4k) and Mach (+32.3k) that followed the 88.0k tumble in January.

Support & Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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#249 Posted : Monday, June 11, 2018 5:34:23 AM(UTC)
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Date : 11th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th June 2018.


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Main Macro Events This Week

The G-6 (+1) held testy meetings on trade in La Malbaie, Quebec, over the weekend in an “extraordinary” session on trade amid attempts to accelerate negotiations on NAFTA and embark on a new dialogue between the U.S. and EU, after Trump leveled a pointed critique of the present “unfair” trading system. The potentially ill-fated “communique” spoke to deep divisions, though Trump was fairly upbeat on shared G-7 “values and beliefs” in his early exit speech, while sticking to his guns on trade reciprocity. Once past the dysfunctional G-7 family reunion in Canada, attention will now quickly revert to a weighty week in terms of geopolitics and monetary policy. Thus, the markets will have to face a lot of major uncertainties with respect to the outcomes of the Trump-Kim Summit on Tuesday, and the FOMC, ECB, and BoJ results on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, respectively.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar for the week of June 11 will be a busy one, with the FOMC meeting on tap and readings on inflation and consumption on the calendar. Economic data will include CPI and PPI, and both are estimated to firm further above the Fed’s 2% target. Retail sales are expected to post a solid gain. Import prices should rise mostly owing to gains in oil prices. The Empire State index may moderate to a still-strong June reading, while industrial production should post a modest May gain, held back by manufacturing. June Michigan sentiment is projected to edge up from the May reading, and business inventories should rise in April.

A couple other Fed events are sprinkled in the calendar this week as well, though completely overshadowed by the FOMC meeting and surrounding blackout period. The Senate Banking Committee will vote (Tuesday) on the nominations of Richard Clarida for vice chairman and Michelle Bowman for Fed governor. The Fed board will also hold an open meeting (Thursday) on the final rule to establish single-counterparty credit limits for large financial firms. And Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan addresses business leaders (Friday) in Fort Worth, Texas.

FOMC: is one among several key events ahead that could rattle the markets, alongside ongoing trade uncertainties. With a 25 bp tightening by the FOMC a near Fait accompli, attention will be on the SEP and forward guidance, including the dots, as well as any tweaks to the IOER. The Fed is expected to maintain the median dot projection of three rate hikes this year, though there’s speculation of a bump up to four. The 2019 outlook expected to be left unchanged at three tightenings as well, underscoring the “gradualist” mantra. The FOMC may increase the IOER by 20 bps (versus 25 bps), as postulated in the FOMC minutes. As such, the dots and the smaller IOER move could be taken slightly dovishly by the bond market that is positioned for a more hawkish stance here, and from the ECB, which could shroud its QE moves in dovish language. Note, there is also a Powell press conference, but no major new insights to be forthcoming are expected. Out of the three central bank meetings next week, the BoJ’s could be the most uneventful.

Canada: May existing home sales (expected Friday) and the April manufacturing survey (Friday) are the lone highlights. Housing price reports at mid-week also feature. Manufacturing shipment values are expected to climb 1.0% in April after the 1.4% gain in March. Existing home sales are seen up 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 2.9% decline in April. The new housing price index (Thursday) is projected to fall 0.1% in April (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in March. The Teranet/National housing price index for May is due on Wednesday. There is nothing scheduled from the Bank of Canada this week, but there is scope from comments from policy makers on the sidelines of the G-7.

Europe: The ECB meeting on Thursday will be squarely in focus this week after officials indicated that this will be a “live” meeting and pretty much confirmed that the central bank is finally ready to commit to an end date for QE. Rather than delaying the announcement of the widely expected “phasing out” of the remaining EUR 30 bln of net asset purchases, recent market jitters and data misses seem to have sparked a sense of urgency at the ECB. A possible confirmation of the sequencing of rate moves and exit steps aside, Draghi expected to remain non-committal on rates, however, and wrap the announcement on the end of QE in dovish language to maintain balance and prevent the EUR from running away higher with rate expectations.

The ECB meeting will overshadow the data calendar, which will focus on final inflation readings for May and the June ZEW investor confidence reading out of Germany. Inflation numbers are unlikely to hold any surprises. May numbers confirmed that special factors contributed to be weaker than anticipated readings over the previous month and with improvements on labor markets adding to gradually rising wages, inflation is clearly on the way higher. At the same time growth indicators have been weaker than expected. Confidence data in particular remains impacted by recent market volatility and concerns about the outlook for world trade and Eurozone growth amid wider Geo-political tensions and growing EMU-fatigue at home. Against that background, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday) is seen falling back to -11.0 from -8.2, with the number of those pessimistic about the outlook rising steadily. Real economic data also continues to disappoint and after weak national Eurozone production (Wednesday) and trade numbers (Friday) are unlikely to show anything but ongoing weakness at the start of the second quarter.

UK: Incoming data and BoE-speak have kept alive prospects for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate as soon as the August MPC meeting, when the central bank next publishes its quarterly Inflation Report. May PMI surveys showed headline strength, and while key components, such as new business, pointed to an abatement in activity, with Brexit-related uncertainty getting a specific mention from respondents. Wages have been rising in the context of a tight labour market as well — something that won’t have gone unnoticed by the BoE — which has signalled that diminishing slack in the economy and low productivity growth have generated a need for gradual tightening.

The calendar this week is packed, highlighted by (in chronological order), April industrial production and trade data (Monday), monthly labour data covering the April-May period (Tuesday), May inflation numbers (Wednesday), and May retail sales (Thursday).

Japan: The June MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is seen at 4.0 from 3.3 previously. May PPI (Tuesday) should warm to 2.1% y/y from 2.0%. The April tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is pencilled in at up 0.5% from -0.3% in March. Revised April industrial production is due Thursday. The BoJ’s two day meeting, beginning Thursday, is expected to result in no change to the Bank’s huge stimulus program, as economic data since the meeting in April has been mostly disappointing. A news report circulated last week that the Bank may consider reducing the forecasts for inflation in fiscal 2018 and further out, as slow CPI growth in April was an unexpected development for the BoJ. A lengthening in the time frame needed to reach the BoJ’s target would indeed be a relatively dovish development, moving the time frame for rate hikes even further down the road.

China: May fixed investment (Thursday) is forecast at up 7.1% y.y from 7.0%. May industrial production is seen slowing to a 6.5% y/y pave from 7.0%, while May retail sales are pencilled in at up 9.5% y/y from 9.4%.

Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is the focus, with the data calendar otherwise fairly thin. Employment is expected to climb 20.0k in May after the 22.6k gain in April. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.6%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is projected to rebound 1.0% in April after the 2.2% drop in March. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Ellis delivers a speech (Friday), while Governor Lowe speaks on “Productivity, Wages and Prosperity” (Wednesday). Markets are closed on Monday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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#250 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2018 4:39:43 AM(UTC)
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Date : 12th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th June 2018.


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FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Core yields moved higher and stock markets were underpinned as Trump tweeted enthusiastically about the summit with North Korea’s leader. The G7 turbulence was quickly shrugged off yesterday as the focus turned to the Trump/Kim meeting, which will be followed by three key central bank meetings this week. 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.6 bp at 2.957%, 10-year JGB yields rose 0.5 bp to 0.042%, Stock markets moved mostly higher across Asia with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.44% respectively with a weaker yen adding support. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.48% and 0.39% so far, the ASX rose 0.15%. with a stronger currency weighing. US futures are also in the green, oil prices are up and the WTI is trading at USD 66.24 per barrel.

FX Action: The dollar traded moderately firmer heading into the London interbank open, led by a 0.3% gain in USDJPY, which logged a three-week high just shy of 110.50. Yen crosses also firmed up, reflecting broader softness in the yen as safe haven premiums unwound amid a cautious sense of optimism in global markets about the Trump-Kim summit, which has just ended. The summit produced a joint signing of an “important document,” though details about its content have not, so far, been made available. The summit produced images of cordiality and rhetoric (and tweets) of optimism — rhetoric emphasizing historical turning points and of new relationships and prospects for peace etc. Whether Kim actually it turns out that committed to team Trump’s demands for full and verifiable commitment to denuclearization remains to be seen, but, if he didn’t, whatever baby-step towards this grand goal Kim has offered looks to have been satisfactory to Trump. Assuming things remain upbeat, and global stock market direction remains tilted upwards, the yen would likely remain on a softening path, and USDJPY on a firming path. Among other pairings, EURUSD dipped to a two-session low of 1.1742 in the wake of the Tokyo fix before settling around 1.1770. Cable, which took a hit yesterday from big misses in UK production and trade data, posted a one-week low of 1.3341.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings – Expectations –ex-bonus average income to rise by 2.9% y/y in the three months to April, which would be unchanged from the March figure and affirm continued above-inflation pay growth.

* UK Unemployment Data – Expectations – at the 4.2% multi-decade low.

* German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – falling back to -14.0 from -8.2, with the number of those pessimistic about the outlook rising steadily.

* US CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is expected to rise 0.2% for May, following a similar gain in April. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well after a tepid 0.1% April reading.


Support & Resistance Levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#251 Posted : Wednesday, June 13, 2018 5:13:15 AM(UTC)
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Date : 13th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2018.


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FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets are mostly in the red as a lacklustre session in Asia draws to a close. Investors left G7 and North Korea summits behind and focused on major central bank decisions this week. Haven assets including the yen weakened amid hopes of diminishing geopolitical risks and a weaker yen helped Nikkei and Topix to outperform and post gains of 0.44% and 0.53% respectively. U.S. Treasury yields moved up from early lows and are now up 0.7 bp at 2.970%, while 10-year JGB yields corrected early gains and are down -0.2 bp at 0.041%. The Fed kicks off the round of CB decisions with a 25 bp rate hike pretty much a done deal, leaving the focus on the rate outlook and similar to the ECB meeting tomorrow, there could actually be good news for markets if the guidance is less hawkish than feared. U.S. stock futures at least are moving higher for now.

FX Update: Most currencies have been directionally dormant so far today, though USDJPY managed to claw out a fresh three-week high at 110.68. Yen crosses also remained underpinned, though most, such as EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, remained below recent highs. Global stock markets have lost upside traction, with risk appetite turning somewhat neutral as market participants anticipate “live” Fed and ECB meetings this week, with the former set, later today, to hike the Fed funds rate by 25 bp and the latter to announce, tomorrow, an end of QE. Attention will be on the respective guidance the central banks give. The Japanese currency has been under-performing as it loses some of its safe haven premium following all the bonhomie, feel-good glow of the Trump-Kim summit.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI and Core CPI – Expectations – to dip to a new cycle low of 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, and see core CPI to also remain unchanged, at 2.1% y/y.

* US PPI – Expectations – a 0.2% increase in headline PPI. The gain should be reflect a 0.3% increase in services prices and a more benign 0.1% rise in goods prices (related to a 0.8% increase in PPI gasoline).

* US Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – crude supplies expected to decline by 1.4M barrels.

* FOMC Statement & Press Conference – Expectations – A 25 bp rate hike, a second for this year, is a fait accompli. So, what will be market moving will be the quarterly forecasts (SEP), including the dot-plot, a potential tweak in IOER, and any surprises from Powell. The key risk for the markets is with the dot plot, and whether the median dot remains at three tightenings this year, or is bumped up to four. With the markets concerned over an aggressive FOMC, maintaining the dots at three would be bond friendly.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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#252 Posted : Thursday, June 14, 2018 4:39:33 AM(UTC)
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Date : 14th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2018.


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FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.477% in opening trade. Bond markets pretty quickly shrugged off the hawkish Fed during the Asian session as the PBOC failed to follow up and as stock markets headed south. The PBOC didn’t follow the Fed and tighten policy as had been speculated, but Trump said he will confront China “very strongly” over trade in coming weeks and a number of key data of of China, including retail sales and industrial output missed estimates, which added to concerns over a softening economy. Bond markets benefited from the sell off in stocks and the fact that the PBOC refrained from tightening and even Treasury yields fell back from earlier highs. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.8 bp and at 2.948%, below the levels seen ahead of the Fed announcement. 10-year JGBs are down -0.6 bp. German final inflation data held no surprise and was confirmed at 2.2% y/y and the data calendar also has final French inflation readings as well as U.K. retail sales, but the focus is on the ECB, which is finally expected to confirm the end of QE, leaving the focus on the forward guidance.

FX Update: The dollar has more than given back gains seen in the immediate wake of the Fed’s rate hike and hawkish-tilting guidance. EURUSD recouped back above 1.1800 after dipping to a 1.1725 low, post Fed. The euro has been trading generally firmer over the last day, gaining against the pound, Swiss franc, among other currencies, with market narratives focusing on the successful Italian auction of 30-year bonds yesterday, with the appetite for the long-dated debt seen as a good litmus test of investor sentiment on the new Italian government. Market participants are also anticipating the ECB to announce an end of QE policy today. Elsewhere, USDJPY printed a three-day low of 110.04. The biggest movement out of the main currencies has been AUDJPY and is showing a loss of over 0.5%. The Aussie dollar has been under pressure following a sub-forecast Australian employment report. Ahead today, the ECB is expecting to announce the end of QE, while U.S. President Trump will reportedly decide whether to proceed with tariffs on Chinese goods later on Thursday — and his unabashed form this week suggests he won’t hold back.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – Expectations – to rise 0.5% m/m in May, which would affirm a continued recovery from sharp weather-affected weakness in March, although at a decelerated pace from the 1.6% m/m growth seen in April.

* SNB press conference

* ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference – Expectations – Comments from ECB officials suggest that the ECB is finally ready to formally announce the end of net asset purchases. The main question in recent months has been the actual timing of the announcement, not the policy change. So the announcement of a short taper through Q4 would not really come as a surprise, leaving intense focus on the forward guidance. Mr. Draghi expected to initially wrap the announcement in rather dovish language to keep markets from running away with rate hike speculation at a time when geopolitical risks are still hanging over markets.

* US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April and a 0.7% gain in March. Initial jobless claims are estimated to be slightly changed at 224k for the week ended June 9.

Support and Resistance levels

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#253 Posted : Friday, June 15, 2018 3:02:05 AM(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member

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Date : 15th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2018.


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FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.9 bp at 0.41% in opening trade, as global bond markets remain supported by Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday, which was followed by a BoJ statement that left policy unchanged, but downgraded the inflation assessment. Global stock markets are trading mixed though, as the focus returns to trade risks. And for Europe, the weaker EUR may still add support to equity markets, but given that rate hike expectations had already been pushed out amid weak data releases, market reaction to the ECB’s commitment to keep rates steady through summer 2019 seems somewhat overdone. The European calendar has final inflation readings for the Eurozone as well as trade numbers for April, but after the ECB move yesterday these are unlikely to have much market impact.

FX Update: The dollar has traded broadly firmer so far today, with the ECB’s dovish-tilting guidance yesterday coupled with the BoJ lowering its prognosis on the inflation outlook (following a widely-anticipated decision to leave monetary policy unchanged) serving to emphasize the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance. EURUSD extended to a fresh 16-day low of 1.1555 in Asia trading. The pair had been trading above 1.1820 ahead of the ECB’s announcement yesterday, and the magnitude of losses are the sharpest over a day since October 26th-27th of last year. USDJPY, meanwhile, lifted to a 24-day high of 110.99. The BoJ’s downgraded CPI forecast underlines the chronic undershooting of the inflation target and points to ongoing ultra-accommodative policy — which includes pegging the 10-year JGB yield at near 0% — for the foreseeable future, certainly through to 2019. The dollar also posted gains against the dollar bloc currencies and sterling, and most other currencies, including emerging and newly-developed world currencies. Market participants will now be bracing for President Trump’s expected escalation of trade tariffs, as he will reportedly be confirming tariffs on China later today.

Charts of the Day

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Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone May HICP – Expectations – inflation is expected to be confirmed at 1.9% y/y with the final release today, up from 1.2% y/y in April. The impact of higher oil prices is partly to blame, as are higher food prices, but in the preliminary number core inflation also lifted. The headline rate is pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability and there is in fact a slight risk of an upside revision. However, with the ECB meeting out of the way, and Draghi confirming that rates won’t rise before the end of the summer 2019 the numbers are unlikely to have much market impact.

* Canada manufacturing Sales – Expectations – expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in April after the 1.4% rise in March.

* US Industrial production & UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Industrial production may rise 0.2% in May, following strong 0.7% readings in April and March and capacity utilization should edge up to 78.1% from 78.0%. Finally, the Michigan sentiment expected to be improved to 98.5 from 98.0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#254 Posted : Monday, June 18, 2018 2:53:40 AM(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 270

Date : 18th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th June 2018.


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THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Main Macro Events This Week

The FOMC tightened policy last week and followed with a more hawkish stance as it suggested two more hikes could be on the way this year. Additionally, the ECB finally announced a phase-out of QE asset purchases. But, a balanced press conference from Fed Chairman Powell and a dovish slant from President Draghi mitigated a bearish response in the markets. But trade tensions resurfaced Friday after President Trump’s announced tariffs on China, which responded in kind. Central banks remain in the spotlight and the BoE headlines, but there are also decisions from Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines, along with the ECB’s Sintra conference. OPEC meets while PMI data will provide timely clues global economies.

United States: The U.S. data calendar should support the more upbeat message on the economy delivered by the FOMC last week. Housing reports dominate and should show overall improvement. June PMI reports should also reveal still solid readings, even if they moderate slightly. And the leading economic index should rise for an 8th consecutive month. May housing starts (Tuesday) are estimated rising 0.6% to 1.295 mln following a 3.7% plunge in April to 1.287 mln. The June NAHB housing market index (Monday) is expected unchanged at 70. Also on tap is the FHFA home price index (Thursday) which should rise to 263.1 in April from 261.7. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should fall 9.4 points to a still-strong 25.0 in June, after jumping 11.2 points to a 1-year high to 34.4 in May, with a concomitant slide in the ISM-adjusted Philly Fed to 59.7 from a 45-year high of 62.5 in May. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs are due Friday. The May leading economic index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.3%, following gains of 0.4% in April and March. This would be an 8th consecutive increase, and the index hasn’t posted a decline since May 2016. The current account deficit (Wednesday) is expected to widen to -$129.0 bln in Q1, from -$128.2 bln in Q4. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are seen edging up 1k to 219k in the week ended June 16, which coincides with the BLS employment survey week. Claims are oscillating around tight levels at multi-decade lows.

Canada: The calendar features two top tier data releases and an appearance by a Bank of Canada official. The week beings with Senior Deputy Governor Patterson (Monday), who speaks to the Investment Industry Association of Canada on “Rebooting Reference Rates.” In May, the Bank maintained the 1.25% rate setting and moved closer to hiking rates again, but assured that their approach remains gradual.

CPI (Friday) is expected to climb 0.4% in May (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% gain in April, as further gains in gasoline prices boost the CPI. The CPI is projected to expand at a 2.5% y/y pace in May from 2.2% in April. A jump in the annual CPI growth rate should not alter the BoC’s gradualism — in the May announcement they noted that inflation will “likely be a bit higher in the near term than forecast in April” due mostly to gasoline prices.Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise only 0.1% (m/m, sa) in April after the 0.6% gain in March, as a decline in vehicle sales weighs. The ex-autos aggregate is expected to improve 0.5% after the 0.2% drop in March. Wholesale shipment (Thursday) are seen rising 0.5% in April after the 1.1% gain in March, which would provide a welcome contrast to the 1.3% plunge in manufacturing shipment volumes revealed for April.

Europe: This week’s round of data releases, which include preliminary PMI readings, are unlikely to offer much comfort as we expect a further decline in confidence levels across both manufacturing and services sectors. With markets still adjusting to the latest policy twists, data releases may have limited impact.

The Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (Friday) at 55.0, down from 55.5 in the previous month, as trade concerns continue to bite. The services reading is expected to hold up slightly better and fall back to 53.8 from 53.8 in the May. This could leave the overall reading at 53.6, down from 54.1 in the previous month. Again, still a robust number suggesting solid growth, but the ongoing decline in confidence readings in Q2 will likely lead to further downward revisions to growth estimate, as the slowdown in Q1 proved to be not quite as temporary as initially expected. So far labor markets continue to improve and wage growth is picking up, so only a small decline in the Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence number is expected (Thursday) to 0.1 from 0.2, although negative geopolitical headlines could have dented sentiment more than anticipated.

Other data releases include national French confidence numbers, as well as the final reading of French Q1 GDP, the latter too backward looking to have much impact. German PPI inflation is expected to jump to 2.5% from 2.0% thanks to higher oil prices, but at this juncture that won’t matter much as the ECB already lifted its inflation forecasts.

UK: The BoE’s MPC gathers for a policy meeting (announcing Thursday), where a no change in the 0.5% repo rate and QE totals are widely anticipated. The focus will fall on the statement and minutes for guidance, which will be of particular interest following a run of overall disappointing data so far available from April and May. Much will also depend on incoming data and how the worsening trade war evolves, in so far as it starts to have a material impact on global economies, thereby, and policymaker decision making. The UK’s data calendar features the June CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday), which due to the reports limited breadth and short survey period tends to be overlooked by markets, and May government borrowing figures (Thursday).

Japan: The April all-industry index (Thursday) is estimated rising 0.8% m/m from the prior flat reading. The pace of inflation likely slowed slightly. May national CPI (Friday) should reveal a cooler 0.5% y/y pace overall from the prior 0.6% clip.

Australia: The minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting (Tuesday) are the highlight of a thin week.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#255 Posted : Friday, June 22, 2018 4:01:48 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

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Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 270

Date : 22nd June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd June 2018.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.9025, 10-year JGBs up 0. 1bp at 0.025%, both are down from session highs, but holding on to some of their gains as stock market sentiment settles ahead of key PMI readings in the Eurozone and the US today. Stock market sentiment remains muted, after yesterday’s sell off on Wall Street, but indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are still down -0.46% and -0.63% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses and are up 0.19% and 0.40%. Trade concerns continue to linger and in Europe Italian political jitters remain a major concern, but US Stock Futures are improving. USOIL rallied and is at $66.26. OPEC and its allies reached a preliminary agreement to boost production despite opposition from Iran. The calendar had national CPI for Japan, which saw the annual reading rising to 0.7% from 0.6%. The Manufacturing PMI Index, meanwhile, rose to 53.1 from 52.8 and the All Industry Activity Index also improved.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded moderately softer so far today, extending a theme that has been seen since yesterday following the release of the Philly Fed index, which came in much weaker than expected. Amid this backdrop, the Euro has corrected some of its recent losses against most other currencies, which has likely reflected short covering, although in a market still wary about the Italian Government’s Eurosceptic bias. EURUSD has recovered back above 1.1600, posting a 3-day high at 1.1638. The pair had yesterday printed an 11-month low at 1.1508. USDJPY has settled near the 110.0 level, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the pair posted a 5-day high at 1110.75. Today, the focus will be on PMI survey data out of both Europe and the US, the evolving trade war, and the OPEC-plus-Russia meeting in Vienna, the run-in to which has exposed signs of discord among some members, which has pushed oil prices up.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Main Macro Events Today

* German PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI should fall at 56.2 from 56.9 in the previous month. The Services reading is expected to remain unchanged at 52.1

* Eurozone PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.1 down from 55.5 in the previous month, as trade concerns continue to bite. The Services reading is expected to hold up slightly better and fall back to 53.5 from 53.8 in the May.

* Canadian CPI and Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to grow 0.4% (m/m, nsa) in May after the 0.3% rise in April. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in May, accelerating from the 2.2% clip in April. The Retail Sales are expected to rise only 0.1% in April after the 0.6% gain in March.

* US Services PMI – Expectations – is seen falling slightly to 56.4 in June.

Support and Resistance levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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