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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 176
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 01-05, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The European currency has been growing all week, even despite the rather weak statistics on the Euro zone economy. The pair was helped to break through the upper limit of the 1.0750-1.1000 corridor and rise to the height of 1.1145 by the news on the recovery measures in the EU, including the EU's plans to conduct direct emission and seriously expand its budget. The Swiss Bank, which buys EUR in exchange for its national currency, also provided support to the euro.
By the end of the week, the hot activity of the bulls was somewhat cooled by the Donald Trump statement on new US measures against China. Typically, the euro falls each time, as soon as another exacerbation begins between Washington and Beijing, as this is an obvious signal for new economic problems in Europe. But, according to a number of analysts, the quotes of the European currency have already fallen so low that titanic efforts of the bears are needed for its further serious movement to the South. As a result, the pair sank only slightly below the center of the four-day rising channel and finished near the level of 1.1100;

- GBP/USD. Last week, the dollar retreated not only on the onslaught of the euro, but also in pairs with the pound and yen. The British currency strengthened its position even despite the "dovish" statements of a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, Michael Saunders. Such a development of events was expected by 30% of analysts, according to whom the pair should have returned to the central zone of the channel 1.2165-1.2650. The most accurate forecast was given by the graphical analysis on D1, which traced the rise of the pair to the height of 1.2350. It was in this zone that the pound remained most of the trading session, there it set its final chord;

- USD/JPY. Most (65%) experts expected the return of the USD/JPY pair to the May 06 low in the 106.00 zone. And by the beginning of Friday, May 29, it did go down, but it only reached 107.07. Thus, the weekly volatility of the pair was less than 90 points. And this despite the fact that two months ago it easily flew ten times more in five days.
Yes, the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually returning to normal. But along with it, the difference in regulatory conditions between major currencies is gradually disappearing. Just look at the key G3 interest rates. Therefore, the volatility of the Japanese currency against the US is no longer the same as in March.
If we talk about the results of the week, the pair again found itself within the extremely narrow side corridor of 107.30-108.00, putting the final point at 107.80;

– cryptocurrencies. Let's start with the scariest news. - The days of bitcoin are numbered, said Twitter user MasterChangz, who is trying to hack crypto wallets by picking up private keys. According to him, the code of the main digital coin will be cracked by him within 5 years. “Now I sort through 600 million keys per second, but every two years the selection speed increases by about 10 times due to technological updates in computer technology,” wrote MasterChangz.
But it turned out that everything is not so scary, and Bitcoin will still live for some time. “Technically, picking up a private key is possible. However, it will take a lot of time,” says Bitcoin Core developer Luke Dashzhr. According to his calculations, it will take about 38593493520073954175290747912192 years to crack a simple old Bitcoin wallet using middle-class video cards.
Danny Dikroeger, developer of the Cash App, also expressed doubt about the success of the plan. He believes that even if MasterChangz can increase the computing power of technology a billion times and pick up keys for 100 years, the chance of coming across a suitable key for hacking the wallet will be 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000001%.
And now, having calmed down, we turn to the forecast that the experts gave for the previous week. Their votes were more or less evenly distributed in the $8,400 to $10,000 range. The same thing happened in reality, only in a slightly narrower range. At first, bitcoin quotes went down, reaching the local bottom at $8,600 on May 25. This was followed by a reversal of the trend, and the BTC/USD pair overcame the resistance of $9,600 on Friday 29 May. As some analysts believe, such growth was facilitated by a large whale transaction: according to WhaleAlert, 11,660 BTC (worth more than $111 million) were transferred between two unknown wallets.
On Friday evening, May 29, Bitcoin quotes are in the $9,400 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased in seven days from $246 billion to $265 billion (+7.7%), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index grew by 6 points - from 42 to 48.
And some more statistics. According to the payment company Revolut, after a fall in trading volumes in March by 52%, the number of customers trading cryptocurrencies increased by 68% in April. By the end of the month, the amount of digital assets purchased by each of them increased by an average of 57%. During these months, 51% of all transactions were in Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) - 20%, and Ethereum (ETH/USD) - another 14%. Litecoin (LTC/USD) is in fourth place with 8% of all transactions.
The demand for the ripple is somewhat surprising because its price has decreased by almost 60 per cent over the past 12 months while bitcoin, despite all the twists and turns, has remained at zero, ending up, as at the end of May 2019, in the $9,000 zone. And this despite the fact that the XRP emission reached only 30% of the maximum volume of coins, in contrast to 87.5% for BTC. Although, perhaps, active ripple purchases are due to the fact that investors consider this altcoin to be underestimated and expect its rapid explosive growth.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is clear that at the end of the past week from 90% to 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 are looking up. And only 10% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. But almost half of analysts have doubts about the possibility of further growth of the euro. Market risk appetites are dying away, and if the US goes on the offensive in the Chinese direction, the EUR/USD pair may again turn south. It should be noted that the strengthening of the dollar in the week term is expected by only 45% of experts, but when moving to the monthly timeframe their number increases to 70%. The immediate task of the bears is the return of the pair within the channel 1.0750-1.1000, support - 1.1065, 1.1000 and the central line of the channel 1.0900. The resistances are located at levels 1.1145 and 1.1240.
Among the events to pay attention to in the coming week are the publication of data on business activity in the US (ISM) – in the manufacturing sector on June 01 and in the services sector - on June 03, data from the German and EU labor markets on Wednesday June 03, the ECB meeting and press conference on Thursday June 04, and data from the US labor market (including NFP) – traditionally on the first Friday of the month, June 05;
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- GBP/USD. If there is a certain fuss in the indicator readings characterizing the lateral movement of the pair, analysts' preferences look more certain. 25% of them support the side trend, another 25% are for further strengthening of the pound, and 50% are for its fall. The latter are supported by graphical analysis on D1. In addition to the problems in the economy, the uncertainty over Brexit continues to weigh on the British currency. So, speaking in the European Parliament, European Commissioner Phil Hogan said that the UK may have decided that the conditions for a deal with the EU are now absent. Although he did not rule out that the situation could become a little clearer after the resumption of negotiations in the coming week.
At the moment, support levels are 1.2245, 1.2165 and 1.2075, resistance levels are 1.2365, 1.2465 and 1.2650;

- USD/JPY. As mentioned above, the market risk appetite has once again greatly subsided. And if US President Trump goes to further aggravate the situation with China, the dollar may start to rise sharply again. But not in relation to the yen. Investor demand for safe havens will either improve the position of the Japanese currency against the US (especially if the yield of protective bonds slips towards new lows) or keep it at the same level, as it happens the last two months.
The results of the analysts' survey and the indicators' readings look similar as well: "either, or, or..." A third looks north, a third south, and a third east. Support/resistance levels are the same: from bottom of current quotes - 107.30, 106.80 and 106.20, from top - 108.00, 108.50 and 109.25;

– cryptocurrencies. At the time of the forecast, bitcoin is consolidating in the area of $9,400. And only 30% of analysts expect that it will be able not only to break through the key level of $ 10,000 in the coming days, but also to gain a foothold above it. The harbinger of this, they believe, is the increased interest in BTC futures contracts, which pushes the value of the coin up. The remaining 70% believe that the BTC/USD pair will continue to move in the range of $8,600-9,600, although they do not rule out breakout attempts in one direction or the other.
As for the predictions of crypto gurus, as usual, everyone is waiting for the start of a new leap to unseen heights. - Alexis Ohanian, creator of the large crypto website Reddit and the husband of famous tennis player Serena Williams, said that the current situation in the digital asset market resembles a full-fledged crypto spring. He said not only Bitcoin's relatively stable value plays an important role, but also its growth after the failure in early March. So far, the growth trend has been observed with a certain frequency, but an important barrier in the form of bitcoin halving has been overcome. We need to survive its minor consequences and continue to develop the industry”, — said the head of Reddit.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 176
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews

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- According to JPMorgan strategist Nicolas Panigirtzoglou, the internal, or fundamental value of bitcoin has recently become consistent with the cryptocurrency market price. This is reported by The Block with reference to the expert's report. Panigirtzoglou is convinced that the gap between the rates has narrowed due to halving. According to his observations, the internal value of BTC was below the market price last January or, in other words, the first cryptocurrency was overvalued. The model from JPMorgan considers bitcoin a commodity, it takes into account the marginal costs in its production, the processing power of the equipment and the cost of electricity. "Taking into account the halving that took place on May 11, the internal value of bitcoin actually doubled," Panigirtzoglou stressed, adding that the subsequent 20% decrease in the hashrate also helped to reduce the gap between values.

- The scandalous entrepreneur and creator of the famous antivirus John McAfee called his forecast for the growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate to $1 million by 2020 "delusional". He said that this forecast, given back in 2017, was an absurd joke. “I said that Bitcoin, the most obsolete cryptocurrency technology, will reach $ 1 million. And you do not see any absurd humour in this statement? Wake up!" the entrepreneur wrote on Twitter. McAfee believes that the term “shitcoin” is perfect for the first cryptocurrency, as there are no smart contracts or decentralized applications on the bitcoin network, blocks are mined slowly, and you have to need to wait for a long time for transaction confirmations. “If bitcoin reached $1 million, its capitalization would exceed the GDP of the entire North American continent. What kind of idiot can believe this nonsense?" said McAfee.

- A trader and analyst with the nickname Positive Crypto said that the so-called 900-day Bitcoin accumulation period will soon end. When this happens, the coin will start actively striving for 100 thousand dollars. Last time, it took the main cryptocurrency about 900 days to take the barrier of 20 thousand dollars. According to Positive Crypto, the rally can now have a greater speed, which means that new highs can be seen before the end of the year. “About three years ago, the second cycle began, which will end very soon. Consolidation will be broken soon. I expect the bitcoin race to reach 100 thousand dollars, " the analyst said.

- One of the first bitcoin miners, Laszlo Hanyecz, known for buying pizza for 10,000 BTC in 2010, said he actually spent five times more on this purchase. He admitted in an interview with Cointelegraph that he had produced about 100,000 BTC in total, and about half of them had been spent on buying pizza. He spent the other 50,000 BTC on buying other things, or just handed them out. It turns out that with a bitcoin exchange rate of $10,000, Laszlo Hanyecz could have a fortune of $1 billion. However, Hanyecz does not think that he miscalculated and does not regret the lost profit: "I was not particularly greedy. I didn't think about overpaying or anything like that. With 100,000 BTC, I would be a billionaire now. But I wouldn't have eaten that pizza then," he joked.

- Oil provides 36% of the total electricity in the United States. The fall in its market value will lead to lower electricity prices, especially in Texas, which could significantly increase the income of American miners. This opinion was expressed by a well-known preacher of cryptophilosophy, Andreas Antonopoulos on his YouTube channel. “Some of the largest new mining operators have settled in Texas, and I doubt that this is a coincidence...”, - he noted.

- According to Yasuo Matsuda, senior strategist of the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange FXCoin, weakening of the Chinese national currency may play into bitcoin's hands. “China has always tightly regulated the economy,” said the FXCoin strategist, “but the coronavirus pandemic has led to an economic downturn. Especially since economic sanctions are imposed by the US. Now the country's citizens have an incentive to withdraw assets outside the PRC, and buying BTC is likely to become even more popular, which could lead to a marked rise in the BTC.”

- The creator of the videos of Eminem, Britney Spears and Lady Gaga, the famous American director Joseph Kahn spoke about his passion for crypto trading. He shared on his Twitter feed how much he managed to earn from the new hobby: “I traded cryptocurrency throughout the last month as a hobby. Making a profit of $2 to $3 at a time. I've already earned $450." Kahn said that he has not invested in cryptocurrency yet, but only invested $7,500 in trading. Based on this, his profit for the month was 6%.

- News of the transfer of 94,504 BTC worth $1 billion has stirred the cryptocurrency community. A controversy immediately unfolded among the crypto enthusiasts on the topic of what could be associated with the movement of such an impressive number of bitcoins. Most often, the event is associated with the imminent launch of bitcoin futures on the Bakkt platform, and these BTC are deposits for e-wallets of the platform. However, some believe that the transaction was made during the configuration and debugging of Bakkt systems.
There are also suggestions that the transfer was made by Craig Wright, who found the lost keys. Recall that last week a high-profile trial on charges of misappropriating coins, which he had mined together with his business partner Dave Kleiman, finally came to the end. The court ordered Craig Wright to return $ 4 billion to the family of the late Kleiman. However, Wright continues to claim that he does not have access to the mined bitcoins.

- According to the Glassnode analytical centre, almost 79% of the bitcoins in circulation remain profitable. Their price now is higher than at the time of the last transaction. Although this indicator can be considered a lagging indicator, such data is useful when you need to determine the overall market sentiment. When 95% or more of all BTC owners make a profit, this usually serves as a reliable indicator of market peak. At the turning point of the cryptocurrency rally in December 2017, this figure almost reached 100%. Conversely, when the figure falls below 50%, the market is thought to have bottomed out. This is exactly what happened during Black Thursday March 12 and the fall of markets in December 2018.
A growing percentage of profitable coins is not the only sign that the bulls will soon have another rally. Glassnode has recently reported that more than 60% of BTC had not moved within a year. Last time, similar market indicators were recorded before the start of another “bull” cycle.

- According to the report of the analytical company CipherTrace, the total amount of stolen crypto assets reached $1.36 billion in the five months of 2020. The volume of "dirty" crypto money on the exchanges decreased.
CipherTrace discovered that Finnish cryptocurrency exchanges are in first place for receiving dirty bitcoins. 12% of BTC entering there are of illegal origin. The second place is occupied by Russian platforms - 5.23% of all the funds received by them were previously used on the darknet or received as a result of attacks by hackers and ransomware. This is followed by the British exchanges, which account for 0.69%. The share of illegally obtained cryptocurrencies on German, Japanese and American exchanges is less than 0.1%.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 176
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 08-12, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Beginning May 25, the euro paired with the dollar rose in price for nine consecutive afternoon sessions, which, according to Dow Jones estimates, was the longest period of continuous growth since April 2011.
The ECB's decisions allowed the European currency to soar to its highest level since March 20, reaching the height of 1.1385. Led by Christine Lagarde, the Central Bank has surpassed all market expectations by increasing the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) by €600 billion to €1.350 trillion. This program will last at least until June 2021, and the proceeds received from the acquired bonds will participate in the process of reinvestment until the end of 2022. The ECB also kept the benchmark interest rate on loans at zero and the deposit rate at minus 0.5%. Thus, the ECB proved to be the only major regulator to continue the policy of quantitative easing (QE) last week, as well as one of the few central banks to undertake similar moves in June.
According to Christine Lagarde, the QE emergency program should solve two problems at once: to help the Eurozone economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and act as a pillar to overcome market stress.
The euro zone economic reports published this week also played in favor of the euro, they turned out to be optimistic for the most part, and business activity indicators were revised upwards.
As for the dollar, it began to sink, in part due to the growing appetite for risky assets. And if it was not supported by statistics from the US labor market, the pair would have every chance to paint the tenth daily candle green. However, the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% in May against 14.7% in April, and the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) rose, amounting to +2.509K against a reduction of almost 21 million (-20.678K) a month earlier.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair finally finished the last day of the working week in the red zone, having stopped at the level of 1.1290;

- GBP/USD. The British pound follows the euro for the third week in a row. One difference is that the Friday candle of June 05 also turned green on its chart. Starting at 1.2075 on May 18, the pair first breached the lower boundary of the channel 1.2165-1.2650, turning it from resistance to support, then reached its upper limit, and made another jerk to the north on June 05, taking the height of 1.2730 and thus adding 655 points in three weeks. Another correction then followed, and the pair put the final chord at 1.2665;

- USD/JPY. After a relatively quiet, by the standards of this pair, three weeks, against the background of the escalation of the us-Chinese conflict, it sharply went up in the past five days.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated after China approved national security laws in Hong Kong and Macau last month. The last step was Beijing’s decision to ban the United Airlines and Delta Air Lines from resuming flights to China, in response to which Washington, starting June 16, suspended Chinese flights to the United States.
And, in contrast to the euro and the pound, in relation to which the dollar was losing its position, it gained 180 points against the yen in five days. The maximum range of the pair’s fluctuations was 245 points, and on Friday June 5, it almost reached the symbolic height of 110.00. But it could not take it, and the pair ended the trading session at 109.60;

– cryptocurrencies. First, about crime. The report of the analytical company CipherTrace, according to which the total amount of stolen crypto assets reached $ 1.36 billion for the five months of 2020, turned out to be informative. At the same time, CipherTrace found that the first place in obtaining dirty bitcoins is taken by ... Finland. 12% of bitcoins entering this small, calm, northern European country are of illegal origin. The second place is taken by Russia, 5.23%, followed by English exchanges, whose indicator is 0.69%. The share of illegally obtained cryptocurrencies on German, Japanese and American exchanges is less than 0.1%.
Now about the highlights of the past period. At first, the crypto community was stirred up by the news about the transfer of $94 billion in 94,504 BTC. Immediately, a debate unfolded on the subject of the movement of such an impressive number of bitcoins. Most analysts linked this event to the imminent launch of bitcoin futures on the Bakkt platform. However, some believe that the transaction was made during the configuration and debugging of Bakkt systems.
The most important event of the week was the bitcoin breakthrough of the $10,000 horizon. On the night of Tuesday, June 2, the price of the main cryptocurrency reached $10,400, the highest since mid-February. However, the happiness of the bulls was short-lived: the leap up was not a steady trend, but short-term whale speculation. After 14 hours, at the opening of the American session, bitcoin flew down, falling below $9,500 in a few minutes and touching even the $9,130 mark at a certain point. Just one BitMEX exchange recorded the elimination of positions for $150 million in a matter of minutes. Some observers have noticed that at that moment the so-called Bart Simpson pattern formed on the BTC/USD chart.
Then, the price slowly rose to the zone of $9,500-9,850, where it remained until Friday evening, showing a 7-day increase of 3.35%
The chart of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is very reminiscent of the BTC/USD chart with the same Simpson pattern on June 02, when the capitalization rose to $285 billion and then collapsed by 6%. At the time of writing, the indicator is at around $ 275 billion, which is 3.8% higher than its value seven days ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the middle of the neutral zone: if on May 29 its value was 48, it is 53 out of 100 possible on June 05.
Most of the major altcoins in general followed the BTC/USD pair. But if Ripple (XRP/USD) showed a growth similar to bitcoin - 3.24%, Litecoin and Ethereum significantly outperformed the reference cryptocurrency: LTC/USD - +6.6%, ETH/USD - +10.9%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Despite the impressive two-week growth of the euro, the continuation of the uptrend is in question. On the one hand, analysts of a number of leading commercial banks - ABN Amro, JP Morgan, Banque Pictet & Cie and Nordea - believe that the ECB will expand QE in September-December due to the growth of government debt that needs to be absorbed. But on the other, the differences between the European Central Bank and the German Bundesbank have not disappeared. So, although Christine Lagarde announced that the decision to increase QE volumes was taken unanimously by the Governing Council, according to the Financial Times, Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann warned her that if this continues, the ECB could be accused of violating EU law that strictly prohibits cash financing of governments.
In addition, euro growth will be constrained by expectations of a sharp decline in Eurozone GDP. According to the ECB forecast, the eurozone economy this year will shrink by 8.7% (subject to the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic - by 12.6%), and next year it will grow by only 5.2%. But the US economy, according to Wall Street experts, in 2020 will only drop by 6.6% and recover by 5% in 2021.
As for the immediate period, 65% of analysts believe that risk appetites will fall, reviving interest in the dollar as a protective asset, and the EUR/USD pair will move south to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone. The next support is 1.0885. Graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators that give signals about the pair being overbought on H4 and D1 fully agree with this development of events.
According to the remaining 35% of experts, the bulls still have enough strength to raise the pair to the height of 1.1400, and if successful, to target the March high at 1.1500.
Of the upcoming events this week, you should pay attention: on Monday 08 June - on German industrial production data, on Tuesday 09 June - on Eurozone GDP, on Wednesday 10 June - on statistics on the US consumer market and on Thursday, June 11 - on the US unemployment data. In addition, on June 10, a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve will be held at which a decision on the interest rate will be made. The press conference of the Fed management following the results of this meeting is important;
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- GBP/USD. As the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said on June 05, another round of European Union talks with the UK did not bring significant progress. It was not possible to agree on either fisheries issues or the issue of open and equal competition in trade. As a result, according to Barnier, the parties remained “far from the goal” in terms of social, environmental and tax aspects, on which partnership and the future sustainable development of both sides depend.
It is also bad that Britons refuse to extend the Brexit transition period, even though the EU is willing to extend it by a year or two to allow more time for negotiations. “But if there is no joint decision on such an extension,” said Michel Barnier, “the United Kingdom will leave the single market and the customs union in seven months - December 31 this year.”
Such intractability of the UK against the background of its economic problems led to the fact that none of the experts this time did not vote for the continuation of the bullish rally. One half of them spoke in favor of a sideways trend, the second - for a stronger dollar and a drop in the pound.
It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators at the time of making the forecast are still colored green, but among the oscillators, 15% on both timeframes indicate overselling of the pair, which is a fairly strong signal to turn the trend down.
Graphic analysis on H4 also points south, and on D1 it draws lateral motion within 1.2570-1.2845. Support is at the levels of 1.2465, 1.2365 and 1.2160, resistance is 1.2725, 1.2845 and 1.2950.
As for the release of macroeconomic statistics, in addition to the above for the dollar, of interest are data on industrial production and GDP of Great Britain, which will be released on Friday June 12;

- USD/JPY. The indicator readings are exactly the same as for the GBP / USD pair: both on H4 and on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators are on the green side. The remaining 15% went to the red side and signals that the dollar is overbought.
Among analysts, not everything is so clear. Only 30% of them voted for the pair's growth and consolidation above 110.00, and 70%, supported by graphical analysis on H4, are waiting for it to return to the zone 107.00-108.00;

– cryptocurrencies. To support their activities, many miners are forced to sell their crypto assets after the halving. Moreover, they sell more and faster than they mine, which puts serious pressure on bitcoin.
However, according to JPMorgan strategist Nicolas Panigirtzoglou, due to the halving, the internal, or fundamentally justified value of bitcoin has actually doubled and has finally become in line with the market price of cryptocurrency. The model from JPMorgan considers bitcoin a commodity, it takes into account the marginal costs in its production, the processing power of the equipment and the cost of electricity.
A positive impact on the price of BTC could be the fall in oil prices, which entails lower electricity prices. As an example, cryptanalyst Andreas Antonopoulos cites the American oil state of Texas, in which the largest new mining operators have settled. “I doubt it's just a coincidence,” he said on his YouTube channel.
According to Yasuo Matsuda, senior strategist at the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange FXCoin, the weakening of the Chinese national currency can also play into the hands of bitcoin. “China has always tightly regulated the economy,” said the FXCoin strategist, “but the coronavirus pandemic has led to an economic downturn. Especially since economic sanctions are imposed by the US. Now the country's citizens have an incentive to withdraw assets outside the PRC, and buying BTC is likely to become even more popular, which could lead to a marked rise in the BTC.”
Overall, the situation for investors looks quite positive now. - According to the Glassnode analytical center, almost 79% of the bitcoins in circulation remain profitable. Their price now is higher than at the time of the last transaction. In addition, Glassnode recently reported that more than 60% of BTC did not move during the year, and the last time similar indicators were recorded before the start of the next bull cycle.
At the moment 70% of experts believe that the BTC/USD pair will be able to gain a foothold in the $10,000-11,000 zone in June. And only 30% wait for the pair to fall to the $8,000-8,500 mark.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 176
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews

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- In China, local authorities found an illegal mining farm, the equipment of which was located... in the cemetery. Initially, the authorities believed that residents of one of the villages were engaged in stealing energy. However, several inspections failed to identify any irregularities, and the investigation was decided to continue. There was a cemetery with several outbuildings in the forest near the village, it was there that the farm was located. The amount of damage from its work amounted to several hundred thousand dollars. Information about who owned the equipment has not yet been made public, but those responsible for the operation of the cemetery claim that they have nothing to do with mining.

- One of the largest Coca-Cola producers in the Asia-Pacific region, Coca-Cola Amatil, in partnership with the Centrapay payment system, begins selling drinks for cryptocurrency. They will be sold them at more than 2000 vending machines in Australia and New Zealand using a QR code via the Sylo Smart Wallet app. Service developers believe that such use of digital assets is an ideal solution in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, as they minimize the need for physical contacts and the use of cash.

- According to the Cointelegraph agency, the mysterious creator of bitcoin may be former drug courier Yasutaka Nakamoto, who previously worked for the Medellin cartel. At least, this is claimed by the head of Escobar Inc, Olaf Gustafsson, who is the right-hand man of Robert Escobar, brother of the head of the cartel Pablo Escobar, who was killed in 1993.
Yasutaka Nakamoto was the lead engineer at Pacific West Airlines, combining his official job with transporting drugs from South America to the United States. After a failed assassination attempt by his former "employer", he disappeared from the public field in 1992, but allegedly subsequently began developing bitcoin.
Interestingly, Yasutaka is supposedly the brother of Dorian Nakamoto, whom back in 2014 Newsweek called the person behind the creation of the first cryptocurrency.

- The U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) has announced a contest, the winning company of which will be responsible for transactions with USMS seized cryptocurrency. The terms of the contest state that the company selected by the Marshals Service will be engaged in “counting, auditing, managing clients and forks of blockchains, creating wallets and managing them, generating private keys and storing them, backing up and restoring, distributing tokens and any other actions related to virtual currencies".

- A user of the social site Reddit reported finding his laptop of more than 10 years old, which contained 533 BTC (more than $5.1 million at current prices). He said that he had given the laptop to his brother, and he could not find it after his death. All 533 bitcoins were purchased in 2010 at a price not exceeding $50. Since then, their price has increased more than 100,000 times.

- Co-founder of Blockfyre investment company Simon Dedic believes that the bitcoin rally will resume and bring the main cryptocurrency to $150,000. Moreover, not only bitcoin will grow, but also the leading altcoins. “In 2017, you could buy literally any altcoin, and it was a good investment then,” Dedic says. “It looks like it won't happen again. However, I believe the rally will return, making a "pump" to some solid altcoins: ETH - $9,000; LINK - $200; BNB - $500; VET – $1; XTZ - $200."

- Analyst Timothy Peterson from Cane Island Alternative Advisors predicts exactly half the price of BTC. Having tracked the recovery of bitcoin from the March low of $3,600, he found that the bitcoin chart “perfectly follows” the movements that led it to the high of 2013, when BTC rose to $1,300. Thus, the analyst assumes that we can expect a 700% increase in the main cryptocurrency in the near future to $75,000.

- The author of the popular book Bitcoin and Black America, Isaiah Jackson, spoke about the role of the first cryptocurrency in the protests overwhelming the United States in an interview with Cointelegraph. Recall that mass demonstrations in the United States began after a police officer killed African American George Floyd during his arrest. People took to the streets demanding justice and an end to police brutality.
As the main problems of the economy, Jackson called the lack of work for 40 million US residents and uncontrolled printing of fiat money by the Federal Reserve. He added that African Americans began to realize that their main enemy is the traditional financial system. “What strategy can help our society in the future? I think people have just realized that bitcoin can be a solution,” Jackson stated. “I usually say that the simplest form of peaceful protest is to buy bitcoin on a regular basis, because you take your money out of this system into what I think is a much more reliable payment tool that we can use in the future.”

- According to a study by Fidelity Investments, 36% of the 774 institutional investors surveyed in the US and Europe include bitcoin and other crypto assets in their portfolios. We are talking about pension funds, family trust companies, consulting, and investment companies, as well as digital and traditional hedge funds. Over the year, the number of financial institutions in the United States that added cryptocurrency to the investment portfolio rose from 22% to 27%. In Europe, 45% of respondents invested in crypto assets. The figures show that European companies are more loyal to cryptocurrencies. This may be due to negative interest rates and a coronavirus crisis that has negatively affected traditional assets.
11% of companies surveyed invest in Etherium, and more than a quarter prefer bitcoin.

- Investor and analyst Willy Wu compared the profitability of dollar investments in gold and bitcoin over the past 11 years. His analysis was intended for "gold bugs" who are completely obsessed with this precious metal. “I made a lively graph of what the current value of $1, invested for over more than 10 years, is worth,” Wu writes. - Investment in bitcoin: $12.8 million, that is, it is a luxury yacht, investment in gold: $1.66, that is, a Snickers bar.


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Stan NordFX
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 15-19, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. If someone thought that the United States won COVID-19, they were mistaken. The number of people infected with coronavirus is growing in 21 states, with new highs recorded in 14 of them. Anti-racist demonstrations in the country are likely to further aggravate the infection situation. Can this be called the second wave of the pandemic? And won't the third one follow it in the fall?
Investors who decided that all the problems of the American economy caused by the coronavirus are behind, miscalculated. Market optimism was sharply reduced by the Fed meeting together with a cautiously optimistic speech of its head Jerome Paull on Wednesday, June 10. The Fed just promised to continue quantitative easing at the same pace as it is now, stretching the possibility of reducing the discount rate to zero until 2022.
As a result, the lack of additional stimulus from the Fed and a new wave of pandemic in Texas, Arizona and California and other states led to a sharp decline in risk sentiment and an avalanche-like drop in stock indices. On Thursday 11 June, the Dow Jones lost 6.9 percent, the S&P500 collapsed 5.9 percent, the Nasdaq lost 4.6 percent.
Fuel to the fire was added by the statement by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin, who said the country could not afford to quarantine again. Commentators immediately remembered that the second wave of "Spanish flu" in the 1920s claimed tens of millions of lives precisely because governments, choosing between economic recovery and people's health, chose the economy.
Falling investor risk-appetite has led to a surge in protective assets, not just the dollar but also the euro, yen and Swiss franc. The weaker currencies of the G10 were affected, most notably the New Zealand, Australian and Canadian dollars.
The fact that the euro almost avoided losses was facilitated by the easing of quarantine, the leveling of the number of newly ill and the resumption of economic activity in the Eurozone.
As a result, starting at 1.1290, the EUR/USD pair ended the week at 1.1260, with a small advantage of 30 points in favor of the dollar;

- GBP/USD. The strengthening of the dollar as a protective asset could not but affect the pound. The pair went down sharply, starting from the evening of June 10. The British National Bureau of Statistics gave an additional impetus to its movement to the south, the data of which show a sharp slowdown in the country's economy. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UK GDP fell by 20.1% in April, and by 24.5% compared to April last year. Industrial production fell by 20.3%, production in the service sector (it accounts for about 80% of the economy) - by 19%. In manufacturing, the drop in April was almost 25%.
Brexit is still a serious risk, negotiations on which have many chances to last until the end of the year. The British government categorically does not want to extend the transition period to 2021, which threatens to part with the EU in a tough scenario with a mass of unresolved issues.
All this allowed the US currency to strengthen by almost 300 points in three incomplete days, and finish at 1.2520 dollars per pound;

- USD/JPY. The overwhelming majority of experts (70%) voted last week for the return of this pair to the zone 107.00-108.00, and this forecast turned out to be 100% correct.
The yen proved its demand as a safe haven currency for almost the entire week. From Monday to mid-Friday, it advanced on the dollar, winning back 305 points almost without a fight. The end of the week, however, turned out to be not so enchanting for the Japanese currency¬: with the restoration of the growth of risk appetites after the close of the Asian session, the pair went up and, as experts had expected, completed the five-day period at 107.35;

– cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency is a currency, though digital. And everything related to money, usually attracts crime. Thus, local authorities in China have recently found an illegal mining farm, the equipment of which was located... in the cemetery. But this is not a sensation. The sensation is that the creator of Bitcoin may be former drug courier Yasutaka Nakamoto, who had worked for the Medellin cartel in the past. At least, this is claimed by the head of Escobar Inc, Olaf Gustafsson, who is the right-hand man of Robert Escobar, brother of the head of the cartel Pablo Escobar, who was killed in 1993.
Yasutaka Nakamoto was the lead engineer at Pacific West Airlines, combining his official job with transporting drugs from South America to the United States. After a failed assassination attempt by his former "employer", he disappeared from the public field in 1992, but allegedly subsequently began developing bitcoin.
Interestingly, Yasutaka is supposedly the brother of Dorian Nakamoto, whom Newsweek called the person behind the creation of the first cryptocurrency back in 2014.
But these are all versions. If we go to the exact figures, it can be noted that Nakamoto's brainchild has shown quite a good result in recent months: compared to March lows, the pair BTC/USD showed an increase of about 140%. However, the main currency does not manage to gain a foothold above the key level of $10,000, another attempt to do it on Wednesday June 10 failed. Having barely touched the coveted line, the BTC/USD pair immediately flew down to $9,000, having lost 10% in just a few hours. Then there was a recovery, and it returned to the central zone of the channel $9,000-10,000.
According to some analysts, consolidation in this area points to a set of a large medium-term position. ?he main cryptocurrency has been ?ecently increasingly correlated with traditional protective assets, suggesting a gradual adoption by big investors.
This can be confirmed in the reports of various research organizations. According to a study by Fidelity Investments, 36% of the 774 institutional investors surveyed in the US and Europe include bitcoin and other crypto assets in their portfolios. We are talking about pension funds, family trust companies, consulting and investment companies, as well as digital and traditional hedge funds. ?he number of financial institutions in the United States that added cryptocurrency to the investment portfolio rose from 22% to 27% ?ver the year. In Europe, 45% of respondents invested in crypto assets.
It is noteworthy that European companies are more loyal to cryptocurrencies, which may be due to negative interest rates and the coronavirus crisis, which negatively affected traditional assets.
More than a quarter of companies surveyed prefer bitcoin, and 11% invest in ethereum, whose growth even outstrips that of BTC (+175% from March lows). By the way, in the past week several mysterious stories were linked to this leading altcoin.
So, the address associated with the MiningPoolHub pool paid a commission of 2310 ETH ($538 thousand) for the transfer of 3221 ETH ($751 thousand). This is the third largest transaction on the Ethereum network with astronomically high commission. Prior to this, an unknown user paid 10.668 ETH ($2.6 million) as a commission for a transaction of 350 ETH ($86 thousand). And a day earlier, the same participant paid the SharkPool mining pool the same 10,668 ETH ($2.6 million) as a transfer fee... 0.55 ETH ($133)!
According to a number of specialists, including Etherium creator Vitalik Buterin, these transactions are an error in the money laundering bot.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is not yet clear whether demand for risky assets will return in the coming days. For example, the s&P500 futures that flew down on Friday, June 12, received a serious support at the level of the 200-day average. A lot will depend on success in the fight against COVID-19, not only in the USA, but also in the world, and on the actions of the Fed and the ECB. We should not forget about the strained relations between Washington and Beijing, as well as the price war in the oil market. Investor sentiment will also be affected by what Jerome Powell will be talking about as he addresses the U.S. Congress next week. And for the euro, certain risks are borne by possible disagreements on recovery measures at the next meeting of the European Council.
In the meantime, 60% of analysts are of the opinion that the EUR/USD pair will not be able to fall below the 1.1200 zone. In this case, the resistance levels will be 1.1425 and 1.1500. The remaining 40% supported by H4 graphical analysis wait for the pair to return to the 1.0955 -1.1000 zone within one to two weeks. The nearest strong support is 1.1100. It should be noted here that when switching to the forecast for July, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening increases to 65%.
As for technical analysis, the vast majority of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are still under the influence of an uptrend from May 15 - June 05 and are colored green. On H4, the picture is exactly the opposite, red dominates here, although 15% of the oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold;
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- GBP/USD. According to some experts, April became the lowest point of economic activity for Great Britain. And although the economy of this country will not return to its pre-crisis volume until the end of 2022. or even 2023, noticeable positive changes await it already in the 3rd quarter of this year. A positive role should also be played by the fact that the government managed to keep unemployment at 4.4% in the period from February to April
From an investor perspective, next week could prove very important to gauge the immediate outlook for the British economy. On Tuesday June 16, data on the UK labor market will be published, on Wednesday - data on the consumer market, and on Thursday June 18 we are waiting for the results of the meeting of the Bank of England. It is highly likely that the regulator will keep the interest rate at a minimum of 0.1% and increase the open market bond buying program as part of quantitative easing (QE) from the current ? 645bn to ?725bn. Recall that as recently as three months ago its volume was only ?435bn, and such expansion is a positive factor for the UK economy.
In anticipation of these decisions, the votes of experts are divided as follows: 45% and graphical analysis on H4 are for the growth of the pair, 35% and graphical analysis on D1 are for the continuation of the fall, and the remaining 20% of analysts stand for the lateral trend within 1.2400-1.2645. The following targets for the bulls are 1.2815 and 1.2900, for the bears - 1.2355, 1.2265 and 1.2165.
Among the indicators, the situation is as follows: 75% of them are colored red on H4, while on D1 there is a complete discord with about an equal number of indicators colored red, green and neutral gray;

- USD/JPY. Analysts' opinions are distributed almost the same as for the GBP/USD pair: 40% vote for the pair's growth and its return to the 108.25-109.70 zone, 35% vote for its fall, and the remaining 25% vote for a sideways trend. But the technical analysis readings look exactly the opposite: discord on H4, and the dominance of one color on D1, where 75% of the oscillators and 90% of the trend indicators are colored red.
In terms of graphical analysis, it draws first the growth of the pair to the height of 108.00 on H4, and then its fall first to the zone 106.55-107.00, and then further decrease to the low of May in the area of 106.00 .

– cryptocurrencies. - Co-founder of Blockfyre investment company Simon Dedic believes that the bitcoin rally will resume and bring the main cryptocurrency to $150,000. Moreover, not only bitcoin will grow, but also the leading altcoins. “In 2017, you could buy literally any altcoin, and it was a good investment then,” Dedic says. “It looks like it won't happen again. However, I believe the rally will return, making a "pump" to some solid altcoins: ETH - $9,000; LINK - $200; BNB - $500; VET – $1; XTZ - $200."
- Analyst Timothy Peterson from Cane Island Alternative Advisors predicts exactly half the price of BTC. Having tracked the recovery of bitcoin from the March low of $3,600, he found that the bitcoin chart “perfectly follows” the movements that led it to the high of 2013, when BTC rose to $1,300. Thus, the analyst assumes that we can expect a 700% increase in the main cryptocurrency in the near future to $75,000.
At the moment, the pair BTC/USD has a much more mundane task: to gain a foothold in the $10,000-11,000 zone. 55% of experts believe that the pair will be able to fulfill it before the end of June, 15% vote for the side trend within the range of $9,000-10,000, and the remaining 30%, on the contrary, expect BTC to fall to $8,000-8,500.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is down to 38 by June 12 (from 53 a week earlier) and is in Fear Zone. With this value, according to the creators of the Index, traders should carefully consider the possibility of opening long positions.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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- Editor-in-chief and founding family member of Forbes business publication Steve Forbes called bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies a protective tool against unstable economic policies of states. In his opinion, cryptocurrencies have become a technologically advanced “cry for help.” They become relevant when governments resort to handing out free loans and quantitative easing.
At the same time, Forbes noted a number of disadvantages of bitcoin. He believes that limiting emissions to 21 million BTC is Satoshi Nakamoto’s erroneous move, because money is needed to simplify trade and not control the economy.

- Kenya and Brazil have taken a leading position in terms of the level of public interest in bitcoin. This is evidenced by data from the analytical portal Blockchaincenter. The researchers compared the data from Google Trends and concluded that 94.7% of all cryptocurrency-related requests in Kenya relate specifically to bitcoin. In Brazil, the figure is as high as 92.6%. Poland closes the top ten with an indicator of 86.4%.
South America became the most interested continent in the leading cryptocurrency. On average, bitcoin accounts for 80.8% of all cryptocurrency related requests in Google. Ethereum is significantly inferior with an indicator of 13.7%, the top three is closed by ripple - 7.7%.

- Researchers of the analytical service Glassnode noticed a sharp increase in the number of large bitcoin investors. The number of such “whales” has been steadily increasing since the beginning of last year and is now approaching the level recorded at the end of 2017, when the BTC price was approaching $20,000. In the expert environment, “whales” are holders of wallets with 1000 or more coins, which at any moment can provoke both strong growth and a collapse of quotes.

- Protocol Podcast host Eric Savix lost all his savings in BTC, which he saved for seven years to buy an apartment. On June 10, Savix downloaded a fake Google Chrome extension for storing cryptocurrencies, Keep Key. He was not embarrassed by the requirement of the program to introduce a seed phrase from the wallet. As a result, the hackers transferred all Savix's 12 BTC (about $120,000 at the time of the theft) to their account.
The concerned community managed to collect a sixth of the stolen within one day. However, some Twitter users questioned Savix' honesty after spotting this name in the Panama Papers. This is the name given to confidential documents of the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, leaked in 2015 and launched a large-scale investigation into the shadowy activities of 140 heads of state and prominent politicians, as well as 240 thousand offshore companies from 200 countries.

- Nuriel Roubini, an economist and well-known critic of bitcoin, expressed confidence that the cryptocurrency market is full of fraudulent schemes. Commenting on the story of Protocol Podcast host Eric Savix about the loss of 12 BTC due to a phishing scheme, Rubini exclaimed: “This is only one of the 1000 daily scams in the world of bitcoin and shitcoins. There is zero security in the world of shitcoins! If someone steals my credit card or bank account details, I will get a 100% refund after a one-minute phone call. Traditional financial systems have 100% protection! “. For reference: CipherTrace estimates that in the first five months, the total amount of crypto assets seized by fraudsters was $1.4 billion.

- Less than three years ago, Estonia opened its doors to cryptocurrency industry participants. And now, after instead of a fintech hub, this Baltic country almost became a money laundering hub, the Estonian financial authorities revoked licenses from more than 500 of 1,400 crypto companies and substantially tightened the requirements for issuing new licenses. Experts have already called such a sharp change of course a “crypto-sweep”.

- American Knoxville joined the list of cities that were attacked by hackers who demanded a ransom in crypto assets. The introduction of the virus took place on June 10-11 and led to the disconnection of city information systems, including the city hall and the court, and the city information portal also stopped working. The FBI is currently investigating, but the identity of the hackers who control the ransomware virus has not yet been established.
On the other side of the planet, in South Korea, law enforcement has shut down another cryptocurrency pyramid called “ETH Wallet.” As in other similar cases, attackers lured victims with promises of high incomes. Police estimate the number of victims at between 500 and 20,000, and the amount of stolen money at $100 million. Three organizers of the fraudulent scheme have already been charged, and about a hundred people are still under investigation.

- Bearish sentiment this year can positively affect the growth of the first cryptocurrency in 2021. This was stated by a well-known trader Tone Vays in a live broadcast on the ForkLog YouTube channel. According to him, the absence of To the Moon should make people angry enough to start selling bitcoin. To the Moon means the continuous growth of the cryptocurrency rate in a geometrical progression. It is the lack of such growth that will trigger its rapid rise in the future. According to the analyst, "for bitcoin to rise, people must hate it."
"Until the price breaks through $10,000, I will expect the price to fall," Weiss concluded his interview. – If we fall by the end of the summer, I think it will be somewhere around $7,000. But the first cryptocurrency will not fall below $6,000."



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Stan NordFX
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 22 - 26, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Financial Times reported in a recent article that analysts began to have problems as Forex stopped responding to fundamental factors as before. Against the backdrop of uncertainty in global financial markets, investor risk moods dominate, which are determined by the actions of regulators on quantitative easing (QE) and support for stock markets, on the one hand, and fear of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, on the other. And this fear is becoming stronger due to a new outbreak of coronavirus in China and an increase in the number of infected in several US states.
This confusion of investors is clearly visible on the EUR/USD chart. There is a side trend at the start of the week, then a 150-point rise, followed by a “ladder” down with four neat steps. Finally, the finish at 1.1180 is 80 points below the start level at the beginning of the five-day period. (Recall that two weeks ago, the final amplitude of fluctuations of the pair was only 30 points in favor of the dollar);

- GBP/USD. A certain optimism regarding the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday June 18 quickly faded. Some investors had expected an increase of ?200 billion in an open market bond purchase program and even a possible reduction in interest rates. However, neither happened. The regulator kept the rate at 0.1% and increased asset purchases under quantitative easing (QE) from the current ?645bn to ?745bn. The pace of purchases is over ?13bn a week now, so a ?100bn increase in volumes corresponds to just 8 weeks of QE.
Despite some optimistic statements about the state of the British economy, the Bank of England, in fact, left the problem of its support open, saying that it would take certain steps as necessary. This position could not appeal to the market and caused another wave of sell-off in the pound, which resulted in the pair falling to 1.2350 by the end of the week;

- USD/JPY. Active interest in the yen as a quiet financial harbor, which we observed from June 08 to 12, has subsided. As a result, the pair returned to the zone of a fairly long medium-term channel, which began in April, and moved along a narrow corridor of 106.55-107.65 all week, within which, at the level of 106.85, it ended the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin continues to be a weapon in the confrontation between Trump and his opponents within the United States. Thus, back in 2018, Donald Trump instructed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to end the bitcoin trade. A year later, Mnuchin continued his attack on crypto assets, calling them a money laundering tool. And now, Forbes editor-in-chief Steve Forbes also called bitcoin a tool, however, changing the sign from minus to plus. According to him, cryptocurrencies are a technologically advanced “cry for help” and a tool against unstable economic policies pursued by governments, resorting to the distribution of free loans and quantitative easing.
As for crypto assets that are most interesting for investing in this unstable time, some experts increasingly call stablecoins - a type of cryptocurrency whose value is tied to precious metals or fiat money, most often in a 1:1 ratio - one stablecoin is equal, for example, to one dollar. The most popular in this digital segment is Tether (USDT) - a coin that is currently in 4th place in terms of market capitalization. According to Messari, the total issue of stable digital coins has currently exceeded $11 billion, showing a 100% increase since February.
However, stablecoins are still very far away from bitcoin. According to the analytics portal Blockchaincenter, on average around 80.8% of all cryptocurrency-related requests to Google account for BTC worldwide. Then follows Ethereum with an indicator of 13.7%, and the third in top three is Ripple - 7.7%. Kenya (94.7%) and Brazil (92.6%) have taken the leading positions in terms of interest of the population in bitcoin. Poland closes the top ten with an indicator of 86.4%. South America has become the most interested continent in the leading cryptocurrency.
True, bitcoin does not please its fans at all for the whole of June. The downtrend of the BTC/USD pair is obvious, and if in the first decade of the month the $9,500 level acted as support, then in the next ten days it became a resistance level.
The total capitalization of the crypto market is virtually unchanged and on June 19 it stands at $266 billion versus $268 billion seven days ago. The arrow of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also froze and is still in the Fear zone - 39 against 38 a week earlier.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It has been repeatedly said that in the current situation, many investors see the dollar as a protective currency. An ongoing pandemic in the United States is fueling fears of a new wave of coronavirus. The S&P500 index is turning down from March highs around 3150, suggesting investor doubts about a further imminent stock market recovery.
In this situation, 65% of experts supported by graphical analysis and 85% of indicators on H4 expect further strengthening of the dollar and lowering of the pair first to the level of 1.1100, and then 100 points lower.
Only 35% of analysts and 15% of oscillators on H4, giving signals of the pair being oversold, vote for the growth of the pair. The bulls' closest targets are 1.1350 and the high of 09 June 1.1425.
Regarding the publication of macroeconomic data, statistics on business activity of the EU and Germany will be released on Tuesday 23 June, and the data on the US labour market and GDP for the I quarter - on Thursday 25 June. Also, there will be a report on the ECB monetary policy meeting on this day;

- GBP/USD. In addition to EU statistics, the UK Service Business Activity Index (PMI) will be published on Tuesday 23 June. According to forecasts, this indicator can grow by more than a third - from 29.0 to 39.5. In principle, the Bank of England still has enough time, depending on the development of the situation with the economy, to reduce or, conversely, increase the volume of bond purchases under QE, and even add other assets to them. The introduction of negative interest rates remains another powerful reserve. But the regulator is likely to take this step only as a last resort, if the country's economy is on the verge of collapse.
Perhaps these measures will return the active interest of the markets in the British currency. In the meantime, most analysts (60%), supported by 85% of the oscillators and almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1, are waiting for the continuation of the downtrend of the GBP/USD pair to the May low at around 1.2070. The nearest support is 1.2265 and 1.2160.
Graphical analysis on D1 sides with the bears as well. But on H4, it sides with the bulls, as well as 40% of experts and 15% of oscillators that are in the oversold zone. Resistance levels are 1.2455, 1.2565 1.2650 and 1.2800;

- USD/JPY. Market fears related to the new onset of COVID-19 on the U.S. economy could not but affect the forecasts regarding the future of this pair. Thus, 60% of analysts believe that the potential of the yen as a haven currency has not yet been exhausted, and they prefer the Japanese currency in the fight against the dollar. However, a powerful downward movement, in their opinion, should not be expected, and the ultimate goal will be the horizon of 106.00. The next level of support is located 100 points below, however, it is now unlikely to be achieved.
40% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, expecting its rise to the 108.00 zone. The nearest resistance is 107.65.
As for technical analysis, 90% of the trend indicators on ?4 and 100% on D1 are colored red. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 90% of them point south on H4 and 70% on D1, while the rest signal that the pair is oversold;

– cryptocurrencies. There is still a debate about whether bitcoin is a risky or protective asset. In fact, if you compare the BTC/USD charts with the situation on the markets, you can see it in both roles. At the same time, it can be assumed that in the event of a serious, comprehensive collapse, investors are more likely to get rid of cryptocurrencies rather than traditional assets.
In the meantime, one can observe the growth of interest of large investors in the reference cryptocurrency. According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of “whales” with wallets of 1000 or more coins is now approaching the level fixed at the end of 2017, when the BTC price was coming close to $20,000. Institutional activity is also confirmed by data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where applications for bitcoin options increased tenfold between May 10 and June 10. All this suggests that after a relative lull in recent weeks, we can expect sharp jumps in volatility, and the “whales” can provoke both strong growth and a collapse of quotations at any moment.
An interesting point of view was expressed by well-known trader and analyst Tone Vays, who believes that current bearish sentiment can positively affect the growth of the first cryptocurrency in 2021. The absence of To the Moon, in his opinion, should make people so angry that they started selling bitcoin. To the Moon means the continuous growth of the cryptocurrency rate in a geometrical progression. It is the lack of such growth that will trigger its rapid rise in the future. According to the analyst, "for bitcoin to rise, people must hate it."
"Until the price breaks through $10,000, I will expect the price to fall," Vays concluded his ForkLog interview. – If we fall by the end of the summer, I think it will be somewhere around $7,000. But the first cryptocurrency will not fall below $6,000."
Regarding the current situation, 55% of experts believe that the pair will still be able to gain strength and once again assault the $10,000 sign level, the remaining 45%, on the contrary, are waiting for the BTC to drop to $8,500-8,800. The next support level may be a 200-day moving average in the $8.350 zone.
In addition to bitcoin, Ethereum has recently attracted serious attention of experts: according to CoinMetrics estimates, the growth of transactions related to it has reached a 27-month high. This happened primarily due to decentralized financial applications (DeFi) and Tether Stabelcoin (USDT), the number of transactions with which on Ethereum blockchain has increased by 450% since early 2020.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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- Deutsche Bank spoke about the possible future of bitcoin. According to the experts of this regulator, the situation with cryptocurrencies may change significantly in the next 10 years, while there are two scenarios. The first is, digital assets will become even more popular against the backdrop of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial industry and many other external factors. And the second one is apocalyptic, in which the electronics on the planet at some point will seriously suffer from solar flares, which makes the use of bitcoin simply impossible, because, unlike fiat money, it cannot be used without additional devices and energy consumption.

- 20 thousand outlets in the USA began to accept bitcoin when paying for goods through LibertyX terminals. Until July 31, the company will not charge a transaction fee, later its amount will be slightly less than $5 for each BTC coin. Also, it will be possible to pay for purchases directly from a cryptocurrency wallet in many chain stores. The head of LibertyX, Chris Im, said that the ability to make payments with digital assets will also appear in smaller retail outlets in the future. In addition, you can now buy cryptocurrencies worth up to $500 at LibertyX ATMs. This digital asset rollout program has been called “Bitcoin for Every Quarter”.

- The role of millennials in the future of the cryptocurrency industry is noted by many experts. At the end of last year, the American brokerage company Charles Schwab said that this age group invests in bitcoin more often than in Netflix and Microsoft. Over the past three years, the younger generation has come to trust bitcoin more than global banks like Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This is evidenced by a study conducted by Tokenist in 17 countries involving 4,852 respondents between the ages of 18 and 65. According to the results, 51% of the millennials preferred the leading cryptocurrency. Among older generations, this figure was lower, due to which the overall level of confidence in bitcoin was 47%, which is 29% more than in 2017. 24% of millennials consider bitcoin a soap bubble, among the age group of 65 this indicator reached 50%. At the same time, more than 45% of respondents prefer BTC to traditional assets: securities, real estate and gold. 78% of millennials are familiar with bitcoin, 14% have owned it.

- According to the Cointelegraph agency, a resident of Spain received the rights to the logo and name of bitcoin in the Patent and Trademark Office of this country. It was a local businessman engaged in cryptocurrency exchange. He refused to disclose his identity to reporters but spoke about the reasons for this step. "I am not a fake Satoshi; I just registered the rights to own and use the logo and the word. And if someone uses them incorrectly, I will stand up for them," the entrepreneur said, adding that he does not intend to prevent others from working with bitcoin, provided that they are honest people, and not scammers.
Recall that the Bitcoin trademark was registered in Russia in April 2016. In 2018, the British company A.B.C.IPHoldings South West LLC. acquired the rights to the same brand - In May 2019, the copyright for this coin was registered by a Chinese woman, Wei Liu, and Craig Wright, who calls himself the Creator of the main cryptocurrency, since August 2017, has filed more than 150 patent applications with various authorities mentioning cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

- The head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, Mike Novogratz, predicted the timing of a new bitcoin rally in an interview with CoinDesk. The billionaire is convinced that the arrival of major players is necessary for a new round in the development of the industry and admitted that he was in a hurry trying to attract institutions to the digital asset market three years ago. However, now, in his opinion, an excellent moment has come for a new attempt: “It took more time than expected, but intuition tells me that in the next 6 to 24 months we will have great [institutional] progress.” The businessman called the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to support the economy as another factor influencing the price of bitcoin: “Within the week after the crisis began, the Fed printed more dollars than for the entire period 2008-2009. My mother used to tell me that money doesn't grow on trees, but that's what's happening right now.

- The PayPal payment system plans to implement the possibility of buying and selling cryptocurrencies for 325 million of its users. At the moment, this payment system can only be used as a way to withdraw money from crypto exchanges. An informed source said that the launch of the service could take place within the next three months: “As far as I understand, they intend to allow buying and selling cryptocurrency directly in PayPal and Venmo. There will be some functionality of the built-in wallet so that it can be stored.” Coinbase and Bitstamp are mentioned as likely partners of PayPal, and it is not yet known which cryptocurrencies can be added to the service.

- A small independent film company Substantial Films is making a film "Decrypted" about the cryptocurrency and the mysterious bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. According to the description, it will be "a scandalous and provocative black comedy about a team of the US National Security Agency that kidnaps Satoshi Nakamoto and tries to get information from him necessary to destroy cryptocurrencies." The film is scheduled for release later this year.

- Experts of the US analytical company Weiss Ratings have come to the conclusion that the main cryptocurrency will rise to $180,000. The company believes that the entry of billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones into the BTC futures market shows that institutions are paying increasing attention to cryptocurrency markets. This is because bitcoin has become "one of the safe haven assets with the greatest profit potential," especially since central banks print fiat money non-stop. According to Weiss Ratings experts, bitcoin is much better than gold in terms of security, mobility and utility, and “if bitcoin takes at least a third of gold's share, it will trade about $180,000, that is about 20 times the current levels.”


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Stan NordFX
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Stan NordFX
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 29 - July 03, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. COVID-19 continues its second attack on the United States. A new spike in incidence is observed in at least seven states. And in the three most populous states, the number of infected people continues to grow at a record pace, with a spike in deaths due in about two weeks. Authorities in Houston (Texas) announced that intensive care units in hospitals are nearly overcrowded. It is clear that this new outbreak is related to the lifting of the quarantine at the end of May. And no matter how much the White House and the governors would not like to return to strict quarantine again, it is possible that they still have to do this.
Against this background, risk sentiment began to weaken, the stock market and government bond yields went down, and the dollar, now entrenched in the status of the main protective currency, on the contrary, went up. Investors believe in the dollar largely thanks to the policy of President Trump, who, for the sake of supporting his own economy, is again starting to increase pressure on other countries, threatening them with another portion of trade tariffs. Not only China, but also the EU, Great Britain and Canada have already come under attack.
And if at the beginning of the week the dollar slightly lost to the European currency, it managed to win back a significant part of the losses since Tuesday June 23. As a result of this counterattack, theEUR / USD pair returned to the strong support / resistance zone 1.1240, around which it fluctuated as early as March 2019, and completed the five-day period at 1.1225;

- GBP/USD. If the distance, which passed in the second half of the week EUR/USD pair was about 160 points, the flight down of the British pound was more rapid: 230 points. Even the 60% growth in the Markit index of business activity in the service sector did not help the pound, which is not surprising given the serious concern of the markets with Brexit problems. However, summing up the week, it is necessary to take into account the growth of the pair from June 22 to 24, one of the reasons of which was the tapering by the Fed of swap lines central banks, opened to maintain liquidity back in March. Given this growth, the final result of the week is close to zero: starting from 1.2350, the pair finished at 1.2335, with a minimum margin of 15 points in favor of the dollar;

- USD/JPY. Most analysts (60%), with almost full support for the indicators, expected this pair to decline to the horizon of 106.00, and this forecast turned out to be 100% correct: the pair reached the local bottom at 106.05 on Tuesday June 23. After that, it turned around and rose to the height of 107.45, which was followed by a correction and a final chord at 107.20, also with a slight advantage of 35 points in favor of the dollar;

– cryptocurrencies. Experts from the cybersecurity company ClearSky calculated that a group of hackers called CryptoCore (also known as Leery Turtle) have stolen more than $200 million over the past couple of years, attacking crypto exchanges and cracking crypto wallets. It should be noted that security is actually a weak point of many cryptocurrency exchanges, which cannot be said about the NordFX brokerage company. Over more than 10 years of its work, its experts have gained vast experience in repelling hacker attacks, which, coupled with the most modern technological support, allows us to talk about the maximum protection of customer funds. There hasn't been a single hack at NordFX since 2008, and this applies to customer accounts in both USD and BTC and ETH.
In addition to crime news, the Deutsche Bank brought us troubling news. Its experts, predicting the future of cryptocurrencies, voiced, among others, one completely apocalyptic scenario. According to them, electronics on the planet will at some point be seriously affected by outbreaks in the Sun, causing bitcoin to simply disappear as, unlike fiat money, it cannot to be used without additional appliances and energy consumption.
Meanwhile, oblivious to solar activity, the main cryptocurrency continues to move in the range of $9,000-10,000 for the sixth week in a row. Another attempt to break through the sign $ 10,000 resistance ended in failure on Monday June 22, after which the initiative passed into the hands of the bears, who dropped quotes to the lower border of the channel.
According to some analysts, the reason for this fall is the early expiration of $1 billion in bitcoin options. Fears of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which are putting more and more pressure on the market, cannot be ruled out either. In the eyes of many investors, bitcoin was, is, and will still for a long time remain the riskiest asset they will get rid of in the first place. While investors wait for clearer signals from traditional markets, the crypto market has metered, reminding a cocked trigger. But it is not clear which way the bullet will go.
Despite taking off to $276 billion on June 24, the crypto market's total capitalization was virtually unchanged in seven days: $263 billion on June 26 versus $266 billion a week ago. The same applies to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index which is at 40 (39 seven days earlier).
As for the main altcoins, in general, fluctuations in their quotes duplicate the movements of the main cryptocurrency. However, if the volatility of the BTC/USD pair in June was about 13%, litecoin and ripple show a greater tendency to fall: LTC/USD - 18%, XRP/USD - 17%. Ethereum (ETH/USD), on the contrary, was more stable, and the width of its side channel did not exceed 13% of the June 02 high.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The closer the November U.S. election, the higher the activity of President Trump and his entourage. The White House is considering imposing duties on goods from the EU and the UK worth more than $3bn, and 20 major Chinese companies have been blacklisted by the Pentagon on suspicion of links to the PRC military. On the other hand, in Europe, everything is going downhill. ECB officials predict a further slowdown in economic growth and weak consumer demand. According to ECB board member Yves Mersch, “the prospects for Eurozone economic recovery are shrouded in uncertainty” and, as a result, long-term scenarios may prove too optimistic. All this, coupled with a decrease in risk appetites due to the second wave of COVID-19, should lead to further growth in the dollar. Such sentiments are particularly visible in monthly and medium-term forecasts.
Thus, as for the behavior of the pair in the coming week, the opinions of analysts were divided almost equally: 30% voted for the growth of the pair, 40% - for its fall and 30% - for the side trend. At the same time, the main levels of support and resistance are the boundaries of the channel that it has moved the last two weeks - 1.1170 and 1.1350.
When moving to the forecast for July, the number of supporters of the dollar increases to 65%. In their opinion, the pair will first drop to 1.1100, then to 1.1000, and will grope the local bottom another 100 points lower. And here we must take into account that very often such forecasts are implemented within the first two weeks of the month.
The goals of the bulls are 1.1350, followed by the 09 June high at 1.1425 and finally the height of 1.1500.
Among the events that should be paid attention in the coming week are data on the consumer market in Germany and the EU, which will be published on Monday, June 29 and Tuesday, June 30, respectively. The statements of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled for June 30, are also of undoubted interest to the markets. As for the second half of the week, we are expecting a whole series of data on business activity and labour market in Germany and the US, including such an important indicator as NFP - the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector;
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- GBP/USD. Next week, with regard to the British pound, important news risks await us: negotiations with the EU on the transition period in the framework of Brexit will resume. In their expectation, the experts' votes are distributed almost the same as in the case of EUR/USD: 35% vote for the pair's growth, 35% – for its fall, and 30% – for a sideways trend.
Technical analysis gives a slightly different picture. Almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are painted red. Red also dominates among the oscillators, however 15% of them give signals about the pair being oversold, which may indicate a trend reversal up. The pair's northward reversal and return to the June 10 high at 1.2810 is also indicated by graphical analysis. Support levels are 1.2245, 1.2160 and 1.2070, resistance - 1.2470, 1.2545 and 1.2650;

- USD/JPY. If 75% on the H4 trend indicators point to the north, as much look to the south on D1. Green also dominates among the oscillators on H4, but on D1 there is a complete mess of green, red and neutral gray colors.
Most of the analysts are bearish: 65% of them believe that with a full-scale decline in interest in risky assets, investors will again want to withdraw their capital to such a safe haven like the yen. As a result, the pair will test the 106.00 level again. The nearest support is in the 106.75 zone.
35% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, expecting its rise to the 108.00 zone. The nearest resistance is located in zone 107.45-107.60;

– cryptocurrencies. Downward trends in the crypto market are once again correlated with the dynamics of stock exchanges. And according to a number of experts, the sell-off of risk assets caused by the expectation of the second wave of coronavirus will negatively affect cryptocurrencies as well. Although, as usual, there are optimists. For example, Dan Tapeiro, co-founder of Gold Bullion International, believes that some of the anti-crisis $4.6 trillion that the US Federal Reserve has distributed over the past 3 months in the form of assistance can be used to buy bitcoin.
Since the BTC halving on May 11, despite all expectations, it has not been able to overcome the $10,000 bar. This suggests that the famous trader and analyst Tone vays was right when he said that "for bitcoin to rise, people must start to hate it." It is possible that this is what big speculators are trying to achieve – having pinched the pair in the range of $9,000-10,000, they are waiting for small investors, who have not seen the take-off, to start mass sales of bitcoin, which will allow the "whales" to buy coins with a significant discount and fully take over the market. And then...
..Then they will send the main crypto asset to new, space heights. For example, experts at Weiss Ratings, an analytical company from the USA, believe that the main cryptocurrency will rise in price to $ 180,000. In terms of security, mobility and utility, Bitcoin is much better than gold, and if it takes at least a third of gold's share, it will trade at about 20 times higher than current levels, they believe.
Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, is also waiting for a new bitcoin rally. In an interview with CoinDesk, the billionaire admitted that he was in a hurry trying to attract institutionalists to the digital asset market three years ago. However, now, in his opinion, an excellent moment has come for a new attempt: "It took longer than expected, but intuition tells me that in the period from 6 to 24 months we will have great [institutional] progress".
The influence of institutional investors in this case is beyond doubt. According to Chainalysis estimates, only 3.5 million BTC coins are used for trading now. (The rest of the 18.6 million are either frozen as long-term investments or lost altogether). And here 85% of these 3.5 million belong to “whales”, which shape market trends on their own.
Now about the forecast for the coming week. From the technical analysis side, important support in the form of a 50-day moving average passes through the $9,000 level. And if the pair breaks this level, we can expect it in the zone of $ 8,500-8,800. This development is expected by 30% of analysts. Another 25% believe the 6-week side trend will last further, keeping the pair in the $9,000-10,000 range. And the remaining 45% of experts do not lose hope of seeing bitcoin above the psychological level of $10,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews

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- In Australia, it will be soon possible to buy bitcoins by mail. It is about launching the Post Billpay service, the terminals of which will be located at approximately 3,500 points, including post offices. It will be possible to buy cryptocurrency for cash or by paying with a credit card. The commission should be low. According to the creators of the service, “this option will be an important step in the process of implementing digital solutions in the financial industry of Australia. And all processes will be carried out strictly within the framework of the current legislation of the country.”

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the price of BTC could soon rise to $13,000. According to the expert, the main coin is now in a very favourable position as other financial instruments are subject to strong volatility. “Bitcoin is locked in a bull setup, which should provide a breakthrough to 13 thousand. The market is now actively demonstrating contempt for positive sentiment, but it is precisely such a difference of opinion that can ensure an increase in the value of cryptocurrency. The decrease in bitcoin volatility has not yet been so clearly seen, but the coin has stopped jumping in thousands of dollars,” McGlone explained his position. A month ago, this specialist predicted the growth of the main cryptocurrency this year to the level of 20 thousand dollars. According to him, several serious corrections should be expected along her path.
Recall that in February 2018, based on a stock market analysis of the dot-com boom, McGlone predicted a drop in bitcoin from $8,600 to $900. And the coin did collapse, however, its fall stopped at around $3,200.

- University of California paid 116.4 BTC ($1.14 million) to bitcoin ransomware, reported the website of the educational institution. The software installed by the hackers encrypted the data on the servers of the University Medical School, making the information inaccessible. “Encrypted data is important for the academic work that we, as a university, conduct for the benefit of the society. Therefore, we made a difficult decision: to pay some part of the ransom, approximately $1.14 million, to the people who are behind the malware attack in exchange for unlocking the encrypted information, ” said representatives of the University of California, but they emphasized that the patients’ medical data were not made public.

- The automated Bitcoin Block Bot tracking service recorded two transactions between anonymous addresses on the Bitcoin network for a total of 101.857 BTC (about $ 933 million). According to BitInfoCharts (cryptocurrency statistics service), 101.857 BTC arrived at the sender's address on April 2. Since then, he has not committed any major transactions until today. And now 5,000 BTC were transferred to one wallet, and the remaining 96,857 BTC arrived at another address in the form of the change on the April transaction. At the same time, the total commission for transfers amounted to just 48 cents.

- According to estimates by the British investment company Buy Shares, bitcoin has outperformed the world's leading indices by an average of 70 times over the past five years. Over this period, investments in the main cryptocurrency could bring more than 3400% of the profit. At the same time, the NASDAQ index has rosen 96%. The S&P500 index the basket of which includes 505 selected companies traded on US exchanges, has shown even lower returns - 46%. The result for the industrial Dow Jones index is similar, 42%. The worst result from the above has been shown by the leading index of the British Stock Exchange FTSE100: its quotes have fallen by almost 7% from June 2015 to the present day.

- The June issue of the Crypto Research Report presents a forecast according to which the price of bitcoin could approach $400,000 in the next ten years. Top altcoins, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Stellar (XLM) will also significantly increase in price. “We believe that bitcoin is at the very beginning of its adoption curve,” the report says. - The price of $7,200 at the end of 2019 indicates that BTC is present on less than 0.44% of all markets with a volume of $212 trillion. If this penetration reaches 10%, its price should be almost $400 thousand. "This will mean a BTC price increase of more than 4000% by 2030. ETH, LTC and BCH look extremely optimistic in this scenario as well, showing gains of 1600%, 5000% and 5400%. XLM should show the highest growth, over 11,000% (from $0.07 to $7.81).

- Well-known analyst Willy Wu called the COVID-19 pandemic a “white swan” for bitcoin, which disrupted preparations for a new rally of the first cryptocurrency. He came to this conclusion on the basis of a new model he was developing. According to this model, BTC had been preparing to move into a bullish cycle in the first quarter, but the economic consequences of the pandemic delayed the rally. To explain the chosen terminology, Wu referred to the philosopher and author of the cult book “The Black Swan” Nassim Taleb.

- India is of particular importance for the entire crypto industry, especially after the recent lifting of the ban on the circulation of virtual assets. The Indian PR agency Bit2Buzz has presented the results of a study of the cryptocurrency market in the country, noting that over 70% of the young population of India already trades or owns cryptocurrency. As for generation X (people born from 1960 to 1979), their knowledge and activity in this sector is close to zero.

- Bill Miller, the famous investor and founder of Miller Value Partners, has confirmed that he still adheres to the bullish attitude towards bitcoin. For two months, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range of $9,000- $10,000, and this, according to Miller, speaks in favour of BTC. During a FutureProof podcast on June 25, he said: “With the current price of $9,000, I find it much safer than at any other mark where it was before.” Miller first met bitcoin at a rate of about $200 after the collapse of the Mt.Gox exchange. Then he decided to accumulate cryptocurrency and bought it up to the level of $500, having received huge profit by today. “I see how bitcoin follows the path of revolutionary innovations consecrated for centuries, which include the printing press, the railway, electricity, radio, biotechnology, the Internet. Bubbles are needed in order to attract capital to the market, which in turn will allow checking which of these innovations can prove their worth,” the investor says.


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KentJ
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All this information right there was very useful for me, thank you. By the way, talking about cryptocurrency, what is your opinion about bitcoin gambling? Is it true that here  you can earn so much money or it's just a fake and scam and I will lose my money if I try? I need someone's real opinion about it
Stan NordFX
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  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 06 - 10, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The latest US employment data is not just optimistic, but over-optimistic: approximately 4.8 million people returned to work in June. The unemployment rate fell from 13.3% to 11.1% - the best increase in employment outside the agricultural sector since records began in 1939.
So what? Nothing! The market has almost stopped responding to macroeconomic indicators as it has new, outperforming indicators: the number of newly infected COVID-19 and the number of dead from this virus. And here the United States far surpassed both Europe and China. As a result, the American economy is in a vicious circle: the more employment, the more newly opened businesses, the more people went to work, began to visit restaurants, travel by bus and subway, the more ... newly infected with the coronavirus. The number of such only on Thursday July 2 was 57 thousand - an increase of almost twice as much as at its peak in April.
Things are significantly better in China and Europe, and so they can relaunch their economies more actively. The United States, on the contrary, will be forced to slow down this process. Positive statistics for July may be the peak, followed by a new fall. But the US will need, according to the congressional Budget office, at least ten years in order to return to the level of unemployment that was before the pandemic (3.5%).
In the absence of other drivers for decision-making, the market is at a crossroads, expecting how the situation with COVID-19 will develop further and what measures the US leadership can take to deal with the new wave of the pandemic. This inability of investors to take any direction was reflected in expert forecasts. Recall that last week their opinions were divided almost equally: 30% voted for the pair's growth, 40% for its fall and 30% for the side trend. At the same time, the boundaries of the channel on which it moved the whole second half of June — 1.1170 and 1.1350 were named as the main levels of support and resistance. In reality, volatility was even lower, the pair did not go beyond 1.1185-1.1300, and ended the week at 1.1245 - almost at the same Pivot Point 1.1240 along which it moved back in March 2019;

- GBP/USD. Was it a temporary correction or a reversal of the June 20-day downtrend? Negotiations on the post-Brexit period are, according to a number of experts, going well and it looks like the EU is ready to make concessions on the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. This inspires investors with a certain optimism about the future of the British currency, which is reflected in its quotes: the pound is growing in relation to the euro and the dollar. The GBP/USD pair found a local bottom at 1.2250 on Monday, June 29, after which it steadily went up, reaching a high of 1.2530 on Thursday, July 2. The final chord sounded at around 1.2480, which allowed the pound to win back 145 points from the American currency in a week;

- USD/JPY. Japan's State Pension Fund (GPIF), the world's largest management company in this sphere, announced record losses for the first quarter of 2020, which amounted to ?17.7 trillion ($165) billion). The structure of its losses allows us to draw some analytical conclusions. So, GPIF lost 22% (?10.2 trillion) on investments in shares of foreign companies, 18% (?7.4 trillion) on investments in the Japanese stock market and only 0.5% (?185 billion) on investments in Japanese government securities. Due of the pandemic, the American S&P500 index fell by 20%, the Japanese Topix slightly less — by 18%, the yield of ten-year US Treasuries over this period fell by 125 basis points, and here the yield of similar government securities in Japan increased by 3 bps. The yen also strengthened in the first quarter – by 1% against the dollar, and by 3% against the Euro. These figures are quite eloquent about which Japanese assets can be considered a real haven.
As for the behavior of the pair USD/JPY in the past week, there were no special events: the yen and the dollar continue to struggle with varying success for the funds of investors who do not want to risk, as a result, the pair continues its movement along the Pivot Point in the 107.50 zone. That's where it ended the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. According to estimates by British investment firm Buy Shares, bitcoin has bypassed the world's leading indices by an average of 70 times over the past five years. During this period, investments in the main cryptocurrency could bring more than 3400% profit. At the same time, the NASDAQ index rose 96 percent. The S&P500 index, whose basket includes 505 selected companies traded on US exchanges, showed even lower returns – 46%. The Dow Jones industrial average has a similar result – 42%. The worst result from the above was shown by the leading index of the British Stock Exchange FTSE100 - from June 2015 to the present day, its quotes fell by almost 7%.
However, past merits of bitcoin are not at all a guarantee of merits in the present and future. The main cryptocurrency continues to move in the narrow range of $9,000-10,000 for the seventh week in a row. Such sideways trends have repeatedly ended in a collapse. So, bitcoin dangerously pressed to the lower boundary of the channel all last week, not rising above the horizon $9,285. Moreover, the bears made several breakout attempts, during which the price of BTC fell to the $8,840 mark, which gave investors a lot of unpleasant feelings. Such dynamics cannot please the miners working after the May halving at a loss either.
Despite the above figures of staggering bitcoin returns, analysts are increasingly talking about the correlation of this cryptocurrency with the stock market. Against the backdrop of alarming expectations of a new wave of a pandemic in the United States, stock indices moved to the red zone at the end of the week: investor risk appetites are disappearing. Accordingly, their interest in bitcoin is falling. Crypto market capitalization is virtually unchanged: $266 billion on June 19, $263 billion on June 26, $260 billion on July 03. (Note that the crypto market showed the same volumes exactly two years ago, in June-July 2018). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is also behaving sluggishly: its arrow is at 41 (39 on June 19 and 40 on June 26).
Now about the altcoins. The total number of all kinds of crypto coins today is a gigantic figure, 5687. Bitcoin dominates the market, covering 64.4% of its volume. It is followed by Ethereum (ETH) with 9.70%. Demand for this coin is fueled by the promises of its creator, Vitalik Buterin, to increase network bandwidth to 100K transactions per second. The next most popular bypassing the Ripple turned out to be the Tether stablecoin (USDT), which shows positive dynamics in moments difficult for the cryptocurrency market. The capitalization of the USDT at the end of the past week was 3.55%, while the capitalization of the Ripple (XRP) was only 3.04%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. No particularly important economic events are expected in the coming week. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, as well as some data on ISM business activity in the services sector in this country, and industrial production in Germany will become known. However, most likely, they will not be able to shake the market much. Due to the fact that all interest rates are about zero, the spreads of bond yields have almost nothing to react to either. And, as has already been said, the reaction of investors to the news about COVID-19 will most likely be affecting the behavior of the EUR/USD pair.
There is another interesting factor that can affect the dollar, it is the results of the US presidential election, which will determine the further economic policy of the country. But it is still four months away, and a serious recovery should be expected only when autumn starts. Although Donald Trump is known for his ability to present the most unexpected surprises at any moment. However, this "parameter" is almost impossible to predict.
It is not worth focusing on the indicator readings with this behavior of the EUR/USD pair in recent weeks, and it is almost impossible, since their main color on both H4 and D1 has become neutral gray. Graphical analysis refuses any constructions as well. But among analysts, the belief in the dollar still dominates. So, 45% of them voted for its growth and reduction of the EUR/USD pair, first to the lower border of the channel 1.1170, and in case of its breakdown - another 70-100 points below. 25% of experts expect to see the pair at a height of 1.1400, and the remaining 30% predict the continuation of its consolidation in the region of Pivot Point 1.1240;
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- GBP/USD. So, let's repeat the question asked in the first part of the review: "Was it a temporary correction or a reversal of the June downtrend?» Graphical analysis on H4 confidently answers: “A reversal” and draws a further rise of the pair to the high of June 10 at 1.2810. On D1, the forecast is somewhat different - first, a decline to support 1.2245, then a return to the level of 1.2480.
The vast majority of trend indicators (90%) and oscillators (85%) on H4 are painted green. On D1 there is no such solidarity: here priority is given to gray neutral, and 15% of oscillators signal the pair is overbought.
As for analysts, they will first of all wait for the results of the next round of negotiations on the terms of the UK's exit from the EU. In the meantime, 30% of them believe that the pair will move within the lateral corridor 1.2245-1.2680, in the central zone of which it completed the previous week. Another 20% expect it to rise to a height of 1.2810, and 50% of experts expect the pair to decline to support 1.2160, and then 100 points lower;

- USD/JPY. Here, the expert votes were distributed as follows: for the pair’s growth - 40%, for its fall - 40%, for the sideways trend - 20%. On H4, the indicator readings are indistinct, and the only reference point can be their readings on D1. Among the trend indicators on this timeframe, 70% point to the north, and 85% among the oscillators. Support levels are 107.30, 106.60 and the lower border of the side channel is 106.00. Resistance levels are 108.10, 109.30 and 109.85;

– cryptocurrencies. The gurus of this market, as usual, raise their heads to the stars, predicting bitcoin's cosmic takeoff. The June issue of Crypto Research Report presents a forecast that the price of BTC could approach $400,000 in the next ten years. Top altcoins, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Stellar (XLM) will also significantly increase the price. “We believe bitcoin is at the very beginning of its acceptance curve,” the report said. “The $7,200 price at the end of 2019 indicates that BTC is present at less than 0.44% of all of $212 trillion markets. If this penetration reaches 10%, its cost should be almost $400,000.” This will mean an increase in the price of BTC by 2030 by more than 4000%. ETH, LTC and BCH in this scenario also look extremely optimistic, showing gains of 1600%, 5000% and 5400%. The largest growth should be shown by XLM, over 11,000% (from $0.07 to $7.81).
An even higher cost of Bitcoin is predicted by the TV presenter and founder of Bitcoin Capital, Max Kaiser. Recall that he began to promote this cryptocurrency when it cost only $1, and now Kaiser suggested that the price for a coin could reach $500,000. However, this requires “just a little thing” - the US mining war with Iran and Venezuela for hashrate. According to the TV presenter's calculations, Iran controls 3% of the world's hashrate, and Venezuela could soon gain control of 3 -5% of the hashrate, forcing the US into the race for mining, and will lead to an increase in the price of the main cryptocurrency.
However, the near future does not look as rosy as Max Kaiser would like. We have already said that in the eyes of large institutional investors, bitcoin was, is, and will remain for a long time a risky asset, following such stock indexes as the S&P500. And in the near future, according to analysts at JP Morgan, pension funds can liquidate their assets in shares worth $ 175 billion, which will work like a trigger, causing a wave of sales in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
None of the experts sees the BTC/USD pair above the $9,000 mark in the coming week. 40% of experts expect a continuation of its sideways trend in the range of $ 9,000-10,000. Most analysts (60%) believe that the pair will fall into the $ 8,000-9,000 level.
In the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of bulls’ supporters rises to 55 -60%. So, for example, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone thinks the price of BTC could rise to $13,000, and even close to the critical $20,000 mark by the end of the year. After that, according to the expectations of many experts, there will be a massive closure of long positions and an impressive rollback of the pair down.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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- One of the US venture capital pioneers, Tim Draper, has once again reaffirmed his commitment to bitcoin. According to the financier, now is the time to invest in the main cryptocurrency, as it looks relatively stable against other assets. Even the dollar cannot compete with bitcoin on a number of parameters. Investing in altcoins will also definitely bear fruit, but the risk in this case is slightly increased. The financier did not rule out that even large banks, starting first just to work with cryptocurrencies, will then make them their main tool. And then the exchange rate of the dollar and the rest of the fiat will sink significantly.
“The effectiveness of each investment tool needs to be evaluated in times of crisis. If an asset sinks along with the entire market, the same can happen to it at any time. When a financial instrument shows relative stability, you need to use it for your own purposes. I'm sure bitcoin is the optimal asset to invest right now. The cryptocurrency market has a real support, so a serious drawdown is unlikely for it. In addition, digital assets are not associated with risky industries like the oil and the dollar. The cryptocurrency is almost unaffected by the geopolitical situation, which makes it stronger than any fiat asset,” Draper argued.

- According to the analytical portal Skew, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P500 index has reached a historical high. The current rate is approximately 66.2 per cent. There has been an increase in correlation over the past few months, but now the value has reached its peak. If at the beginning of the year the correlation was traced only at serious collapses or spikes, now it takes place even at the lowest volatility. “Some people compare bitcoin with gold, but even if it is connected with the stock markets, it remains a risky asset,” experts say.

- The Binance-supported blockchain hotel reservation service Travala has announced a partnership with Expedia, an American tour operator. Thanks to this, it will be possible to pay for rooms in 700,000 hotels from the company's catalogue using BTC and another 30 digital currencies. Expedia previously accepted payments in bitcoins but abandoned this method in 2018 as it did not fit with their traditional financial model. And now a second attempt follows, apparently related to the general crisis in the tourism industry.

- The experts of The Tokenist information platform, having polled 4852 people aged 18 to 65 years from 17 countries, analysed how the attitude towards bitcoin has changed over the past three years. Since 2017, the number of people who prefer BTC to traditional assets has grown significantly. More than 45% of respondents would prefer to have this cryptocurrency instead of stocks, real estate and gold, which is 13% more than three years ago. Moreover, among millennials, their share is 92% against 68% earlier.
The number of people familiar with Bitcoin increased from 30% to 61%, with the number of respondents owning or having owned it rising from 2% to 6%. Among millennials, the number of people familiar with bitcoin rose from 42% to 78%, and cryptocurrency owners rose from 4% to 14%. Note that 44% of millennials claim that they will buy BTC within the next five years.
There is an increase аrom 18% to 47% in the number of people trusting bitcoin more than large banks. Among millennials surveyed, there are 51 percent of them, among older people, only 7 percent of them. It is noteworthy that the number of people over 65 who are familiar with cryptocurrencies has grown by 51%! The authors of the study believe that this is due to the growing mention of bitcoin in the media and the growing support for coins from the side of trade.

- A team of researchers from Bloomberg Agency published a report forecasting the rapid resumption of the rally of the leading cryptocurrency. According to analysts, the market has the most comfortable environment for the flow of capital into the crypto industry. Among the factors contributing to the strengthening of BTC, experts highlighted the weakening position of central banks, as well as the growth of investment in gold, the digital counterpart of which is bitcoin. The low volatility that we have observed over the past weeks also contributes to the flow of funds from the stock market to BTC. The result of the new bitcoin race should be a rise to $12,000. Recall that among Bloomberg analysts, Mike McGlone is an ardent supporter of the largest cryptocurrency. He said back in June that a BTC jerk was imminent, with the result by the end of the year being to overcome the psychological milestone of $20,000. In shaping his forecast, McGlone relied on statistics on the growth of active addresses in the BTC network.

- Anthony Trenchev, Managing Partner of Nexo Credit Platform, gave an even more optimistic forecast. In his opinion, the value of bitcoin may exceed $50,000 in a few months. During an interview at the Block Down conference, Anthony Trenchev said that the Nexo platform is growing tens of percent every month, new customers are constantly registering, both retail and institutional investors. And it is the increased participation of institutionals that can be the driver of growth.
Trenchev believes that from the point of view of fundamental factors, bitcoin is now stronger than ever. It looks particularly strong against the backdrop of quantitative easing policies pursued by central banks. “I think it's good for gold and especially for bitcoin. So, I'm sticking to my $50,000 forecast by the end of the year. I admit, this is a bold statement, but fundamental factors and a change in attitude towards cryptocurrency make it real,” Anthony Trenchev concluded.

- A popular crypto analyst under the nickname PlanB conducted a survey among Twitter users to find out what the price of BTC will be by December 2021. The survey involved 26,639 people. Most respondents believe that the largest cryptocurrency will not be able to break above $55,000. Nearly 30% of respondents named the $100,000 mark. And 17% do not exclude the option in which BTC will approach $ 300,000.

- Developer and founder of startup Zap Inc. Jack Mullers announced the launch of the Strike product into the open beta stage. Strike will allow transfers in BTC via direct bank deposits, similar to how it works with dollars. 2Also, in order to enter the market in the most efficient way, the startup is preparing to release its own card in the Visa system.
This year, Visa accepted the Fold cryptocurrency cashback distribution program into Fast Track. There is also a debit card that allows you to pay with cryptocurrency. It is not yet known what option will be offered to Zap card holders.

- The chief organizer and principal perpetrator of the Olalekan crime scheme, Jacob Ponle, better known as Woodbery, has been extradited from the UAE and will be tried in the United States in a case of money laundering, fraud a particularly large scale and a number of crimes. The cybercriminal faces up to 20 years in prison. According to the FBI, about 2 million people and organizations have become victims of fraud over the past few years. The group included at least 11 people who were engaged in hacker attacks on computers and servers of large American companies, having stolen about $168 million.

- The ZUBR crypto derivatives exchange published a study according to which the daily mining of bitcoin by the end of this decade will be significantly lower than the demand for it from buyers. Based on the performance of Chainalysis, ZUBR estimates that by the time of the next halving in 2024, small investors will already absorb more than 50% of the supply. And if everything continues at this rate, the demand for bitcoins will significantly exceed the supply by 2028, which will entail a significant increase in the price of this cryptocurrency.


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