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KostiaForexMart
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December 3. Non-farm Payrolls disappointed the markets

According to the monthly Non-farm Payrolls report, the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector increased by only 210 thousand in November after an increase of 546 thousand in the previous month. This indicator turned out to be significantly lower than analysts' expectations (573 thousand).

At the same time, despite the large shortage of personnel, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%. At the same time, the labor force participation rate increased over the month to 61.8%, which is the highest since March 2020.

The Labor Department noted that the U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, before the threat of a new Covid strain roiled markets and raised concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the winter.

The sectors that showed the largest increase in November include professional and business services (90 thousand), transport and warehousing (50 thousand), as well as construction (31 thousand). Retail trade decreased by 20 thousand employees, even though the holiday shopping season is approaching.

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KostiaForexMart
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December 17. Producer prices in Germany in November rose to the highest in 70 years

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), producer prices (PPI index) in Germany in November increased sharply by 19.2% compared to the same month last year. This growth was the highest since November 1951.

It is worth noting that analysts predicted an even more significant increase in the PPI index in November – by 19.9%.

The pace of price growth has accelerated for the eleventh month in a row, and the last five months the rise exceeds 10%. In particular, energy prices jumped by 49.4% in November: natural gas rose by 83.4%, electricity by 48%. The cost of intermediate products increased by 19.1%, consumer durable goods – by 3.7%, means of production – by 3.6%.

Experts note that such an increase in the PPI index indicates a gloomy outlook for the economy during the Christmas season, as the German industrial sector continues to struggle with disruptions in supply chains and the threat posed by a new strain of omicron.

December 16. The Bank of England unexpectedly raised the interest rate

Following the results of the December meeting, the Bank of England presented an unexpected surprise to the markets, sharply raising the base interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%. The decision was made by a majority vote.

In addition, the regulator unanimously decided to leave the volume of the asset repurchase program at the level of 895 billion pounds, including the repurchase of government bonds in the amount of 875 billion pounds.

Analysts' forecasts did not suggest such actions by the central bank. The last time the British regulator changed the rate in 2018 – then it rose to 0.75%. After that, it either remained at the same level or decreased.

Representatives of the Bank of England said that such a decision was due to the acceleration of inflation to a ten-year high. In November, consumer prices increased by 5.1% compared to the same indicator in 2020. At the same time, the target level of the central bank is in the region of 2%.

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KostiaForexMart
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December 20. The Turkish Lira has updated the anti-record again

On Monday, the Turkish lira exchange rate collapsed again, updating another anti-record. The quote of the USD/TRY pair is 18.41 lira per dollar. During the day, the currency lost about 10%.

Back in January 2021, the lira was trading at the rate of 7.4 lira per dollar. During the year, the currency has fallen in price by more than 60%, and the lira has lost more than 40% of its value over the past month.

The driver of the weakening of the lira was another reduction in the interest rate by the central bank of Turkey. On Thursday, the Central Bank decided to reduce the discount rate from 15% to 14%. The regulator also announced new direct currency interventions.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is in favor of reducing the discount rate, arguing that this will lead to lower inflation. However, many do not agree with Erdogan's policy. As a result, since July 2019, the president has already changed the head of the central bank three times and the finance minister twice since November 2021.

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KostiaForexMart
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December 21. Tesla leaves the list of «trillion companies»

Tesla Inc. rose 35% in October after a deal was struck with car rental company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. This collaboration signaled a wider spread of electric cars, which caused an increase in the value of securities, but after this rally gradually began to subside until it completely evaporated.

Immediately after ordering Hertz for 100,000 cars, Tesla's shares rose so that the company's valuation significantly exceeded the coveted $1 trillion mark. However, Tesla shares fell 3.5% yesterday to close at $ 899.94. That is, even below the level at which they closed before the announcement on October 25 of the Hertz deal worth $ 4.2 billion.

Analysts say that the decline in the value of shares was due to the fact that Elon Musk began to get rid of part of his stake in the company. Tesla's market cap is now around $904 billion.

Further pressure on prices came from a severe downturn in the renewable energy sector, including the production of solar panels and electric vehicles. The market decline came after Senator Joe Manchin said he would not support President Joe Biden's $2 trillion spending plan.

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KostiaForexMart
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December 22. Oil prices rose sharply amid the energy crisis in Europe

Yesterday, oil prices showed a steady increase against the background of the energy crisis in Europe: the cost of gas in the region overcame another historical maximum at $2,187 per thousand cubic meters. And in such conditions, the demand for petroleum products will inevitably grow.

On Wednesday morning, Brent oil quotes settled at $73.91 per barrel. Yesterday's daily high was marked at $74.57. North American WTI crude oil rose to $71.78 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market was provided by yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which crude oil reserves in the United States decreased by 3.67 million barrels. Today, we should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy, and if official data also confirm a reduction in raw materials stocks – this will be the fourth week of decline in a row.

Analysts and market participants also continue to monitor the situation with the emergence of a new omicron strain of coronavirus. Experts fear that the new strain carries even greater risks for global oil demand than its predecessors. «Any threat of falling demand will contribute to investors avoiding risks and outflow of funds from energy markets,» experts say.

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KostiaForexMart
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December 23. Oil is declining after yesterday's jump

Last night, after the release of statistics from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country, Brent quotes jumped sharply to the level of $75.71 per barrel. Today, the price is declining, approaching the $75.00 mark. The price of WTI crude oil showed a decrease from $73.20 to $72.50 per barrel.

According to official weekly data on the energy market in the United States, stocks of raw materials decreased by 4.7 million barrels, while analysts predicted a smaller reduction – by only 2.7 million barrels. Oil reserves in the States have been declining for the fourth week in a row. At the same time, gasoline reserves increased by 5.53 million barrels, distillates – by 396 thousand barrels.

Additional support for the market is provided by various news that helps to reduce nervousness about the omicron strain, as well as the release of good statistics on the United States. The US GDP in the final assessment and the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board came out better than expected.

Quotes are also supported by the news about the suspension of production at several fields in Libya, as a result of which the country lost more than 300 thousand b/d of production.

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KostiaForexMart
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December 27. Great Britain faces a serious energy crisis

Analysts do not exclude that the UK will face a worsening economic situation due to gas prices, similar to what happened during the 2008 financial crisis.

Stephen Fitzpatrick, chief executive of OVO Energy, the nation's second-largest energy supplier, compared the current state of affairs to the period between the collapse of the Northern Rock bank and the collapse of Lehman Brothers a year later.

The current crisis is not expected to end soon. Moreover, Fitzpatrick accused the British authorities of being too slow in finding suitable solutions to break the impasse.

The UK government itself said it was in constant contact with representatives of the energy industry, and promised to protect consumers from rising prices.

Among the main causes of the energy crisis in Europe are unfavorable weather, inefficient operation of wind farms this year and insufficient gas reserves in underground storage on the continent. Britain also believes that Russia was the culprit in the crisis in Europe, but Moscow has denied the allegations. He pointed out that the European Commission itself insisted on the market pricing of the energy carrier, which ultimately led to the crisis.

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KostiaForexMart
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December 29. Mexico will stop exporting oil

Mexico has decided to process almost all the oil produced in the country on its own. In 2023-2024, the Dos Bocas oil refinery and the Kangrejera petrochemical complex will be launched, said Octavio Oropesa, head of the Mexican oil and gas state company Pemex.

It follows from this that Mexico will almost 100% abandon oil exports. Earlier, the country's president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has already stated that the government intends to stop exports before the expiration of Obrador's term in 2024. By doing this, the authorities intend to preserve hydrocarbon reserves for future generations.

Pemex's loss amounted to $4 billion in January-September. The company increased oil production to 1.73 million barrels per day, and exports of «black gold» increased by 58% to $25.2 billion.

Recall that back in April 2020, the OPEC+ countries agreed to reduce production by 10 million b/d, but Mexico refused to reduce production by 400 thousand b/d, putting the deal on the verge of collapse. The situation was saved by the United States, which agreed to reduce its quota by 400 thousand b/d. Experts note that if Mexico withdraws from the world oil market, it will facilitate the procedure for concluding agreements within the framework of OPEC+. At the same time, Mexico's share in the world market may be taken by Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

December 28. Gold has risen to a maximum of the last five weeks

Gold prices on Tuesday rose to the highest level in five weeks, reaching $1,819.35 per ounce. The current quote of the precious metal is $1817.75. The last time such values were recorded was in mid-November.

Prices were supported by the weakening of the dollar, since strong statistical data from the United States and high inflation did not lead to a jump in the exchange rate of the US currency and the yield of government bonds. The US economy in the third quarter grew by 2.3% in terms of annual rates, the estimate of the indicator was increased from the previous 2.1%. And the PCE Core index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, jumped 4.7% in November compared to the same month last year, the fastest pace in more than 30 years.

This week, gold may well continue to rise, but the growth will be short-lived. Analysts note that gold's attempts to demonstrate a significant recovery are still inconclusive, and traders cut long positions at the first signs of trouble.

As for the other metals, the picture is as follows: silver rose 0.2% to $23.08 per ounce, platinum rose 0.3% to $973, and palladium fell 0.7% to $1957.68, retreating from the more than monthly peak reached in the previous session.

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KostiaForexMart
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  • Joined: 22/03/2019
January 4. Prospects of the precious metals market

In 2021, everything except precious metals rose in price: oil jumped in price by 55%, copper increased by 25% over the year, and inflation in the United States reached a 40-year high of 6.8%. At the same time, gold not only did not grow, but also lost about 4% in price over the year.

In fact, there is quite a logical explanation for this. The gold market is under pressure from the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Market participants fear that the beginning of a cycle of interest rate increases will inevitably play against gold. Which leads to the fact that the market begins to look for more profitable instruments.

Many investment banks have already submitted their forecasts for 2022. In particular, JPMorgan expects an average gold price of $1,630 per ounce in 2022. Deutsche Bank is more conservative and expects $1,750 at the end of the year. The current price of an ounce of precious metal is $1808.

However, there are also those who hold more positive views on the dynamics of gold, expecting its value in the new year at the level of $ 2000-2100 per ounce. Investors believe that the «fashion» for risky assets will not always be relevant, so when gold becomes a sought-after asset again, its value can easily grow by 15-20%. Especially after a bad year.

There are many reasons that can change the vector of the direction of gold: there is an out-of-control inflation, new Covid strains and restrictions, as well as geopolitics and general tension in the world.

January 3. What awaits the oil market in the new year

During the first trading day of the new year, the oil market demonstrates a multidirectional movement, first continuing the decline that began at the end of the past year, and then sharply jumping up. The current Brent quote is $78, WTI oil is trading at $75.38 per barrel.

The pressure on prices is exerted by the continuing concern of the market about the fall in demand due to the new strain of the omicron coronavirus. At the same time, analysts note that due to mass vaccination in 2021, the threat of Covid in the world has significantly weakened, and by the end of 2021, Brent has grown by 34%, and WTI – by 38%. The growth was mainly due to the gradual lifting of restrictions on air travel and tourism and, accordingly, the growing demand for oil.

Predicting the movement of the oil market in 2022, analysts note that the periodic appearance of new strains of coronavirus may cause the resumption of lockdowns and restrictions in certain countries and sectors of the economy. Therefore, the oil market situation in the new year will not be too stable, and the market is waiting for sharp price fluctuations.

Another risk for the oil market in 2022 may be an increase in oil production in the United States. According to the IEA forecast, the supply of oil will also increase sharply in Canada and Brazil, and this will mean that there will be an excess supply of oil in the market of 2 million b/d, of which 1.1 million b/d will be for oil production in the United States.

Tomorrow, January 4, a regular meeting of the ministers of the OPEC+ member countries will be held, at which the parameters of the implementation of the current agreement on increasing oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day will be discussed, and quotas for January will also be set. Most likely, they will remain unchanged – the same as in December 2021. However, if the threat of new, more dangerous Covid strains persists, OPEC+ may temporarily suspend production increases due to uncertainty about future oil demand.

For 2022, we predict that the price of Brent oil will move on average in the range of $65-$90 per barrel, and during the first quarter of 2022 – in the range of $69-79 per barrel.
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KostiaForexMart
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January 5. Europe may be left without gas in two months

Experts note that against the background of the energy transition, gas reserves in the EU turned out to be insufficient, which could lead to the fact that by the end of winter, the level of reserves in storage facilities could fall to a historic low of 15%.

Today, Europe is in the midst of the so-called energy transition – countries are closing coal-fired power plants, thereby increasing dependence on renewable energy sources. And although wind and solar energy is much cleaner, these sources are fickle: last year, electricity generation in Europe fell sharply. And since there are still two cold winter months ahead, gas in European countries may simply run out.

Storage facilities in Europe are 56% full, which is 15 percentage points lower than the average for ten years. According to analysts, if Russia does not increase gas supplies, by the end of March, the level of reserves in Europe will drop to 15%, which could be the lowest in history. Experts note that without additional supplies of Russian gas via the Nord Stream-2, 2022 will be another unstable period for European prices for blue fuel.

Last year, exchange prices for gas in Europe broke several records. On December 21, the cost of fuel for the first time exceeded $2 thousand for 1 cubic meter . This was caused by a decrease in pumping through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, information about the launch of Nord Stream 2 no earlier than the second half of 2022, as well as news about a possible cooling in Europe.


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KostiaForexMart
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January 10. Wall Street futures decline in anticipation of further inflation in the US

Monday began with a decline in futures on major US stock indexes. Pressure on the market is exerted by the expectations of statistics, which should confirm the continued acceleration of consumer price growth in the United States.

In particular, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) declined by 0.02% to 36102 points, futures for the S&P 500 broad market index – by 0.11% to 4662.75 points, and the NASDAQ high–tech index – by 0.29% to 15536 points.

Consumer price statistics in the United States will be published on Wednesday. Analysts suggest that last year's inflation was 7%, which will be the highest since 1982. A month earlier, annual inflation in the United States reached 6.8%.

Experts note that the stronger-than-expected growth in average wages in the country reinforced the inflation expectations of investors. If the forecasts turn out to be correct, the US Federal Reserve will have to start raising the discount rate earlier than planned.

However, the tightening of monetary policy is unfavorable for nominal stock prices. High-tech companies, whose value depends more on future profits (which, in turn, is closely related to «cheap» money in the economy), may suffer the most. Therefore, NASDAQ futures are getting cheaper more significantly than other indices.

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KostiaForexMart
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January 11. Gold rises in anticipation of Powell's comments

The price of gold on Tuesday is rising for the third session in a row amid a decline in the dollar and treasury yields ahead of a speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Market participants are confident that the regulator will start raising interest rates very soon, which puts pressure on the US currency exchange rate.

The spot price of gold rose today to $1.810 per troy ounce, subsequently declining to $1.805.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds retreated from a near two-year high, and the dollar declined against its main competitors.

Jerome Powell promised to prevent further acceleration of already high inflation. And it is the inflationary rhetoric of the policy that will be the central topic of the hearings in the banking committee devoted to the consideration of Powell's candidacy for a second term at the head of the Fed.

In addition to Powell's speech, markets are waiting for tomorrow's data on consumer prices in the United States: the index is expected to have grown in December by 5.4% year-on-year compared to November's 4.9%.

Palladium has risen in price today to $1,937.78 per ounce, silver – $22,710 per ounce, and platinum – up to $950,00.

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KostiaForexMart
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January 12. The first bitcoin transaction is 13 years old

Exactly 13 years ago, on January 12, 2009, the creator of bitcoin under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto made the first transaction in cryptocurrency, sending 10 BTC to cryptographer Hal Finney. Hal Finney played a crucial role in the history of bitcoin, and according to one version, he was the creator of the cryptocurrency. Since then, 700 billion transactions have been made.

The first BTC transaction was confirmed in block #170. The cost of the cryptocurrency received by Finney was almost zero. According to him, the cryptographer extracted several blocks on his own personal computer. Since then, cryptocurrency mining has become an industry in which specialized high-performance devices are used, and the hashrate of the network exceeds 170 EH/s.

However, currently, the solo mining of cryptocurrencies continues. Yesterday, an unknown miner with an equipment capacity of 126 TH/s included block #718124 in the blockchain. Experts note that the probability of this event was less than 0.0001%. The anonymous miner received a reward of 6.25 BTC. As you know, in 2009, 50 BTC was charged for the extracted block, but this figure is halved approximately every four years.

In December 2021, miners mined 90% of bitcoin. Analysts note that the cryptocurrency is expected to reach the issue limit of 21 million coins in 2140.


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KostiaForexMart
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13.01. Oil is growing after the publication of reserves statistics

On Thursday, the price of oil continues to rise, despite the appearance of quite alarming signals. The current Brent quote is $84.75, North American WTI oil is trading near $82.50 per barrel.

Yesterday, industry statistics from the US Department of Energy were presented, and the data came out somewhat ambiguous. In particular, according to the weekly report, oil reserves in the United States decreased by 4.6 million barrels, which turned out to be better than forecasts. Production decreased by 100 thousand b/d to 11.7 million b/d.

At the same time, gasoline stocks jumped by 8 million barrels at once, exceeding the average level for 3 years. Moreover, the level of oil refining remained stable, and the loading of the refinery even decreased slightly, from 89.8% to 88.4%. This may mean that the growth of gasoline stocks is associated with the weakness of demand. If this turns out to be a temporary phenomenon, then oil prices will remain high. Otherwise, alarm signals may begin to put pressure on oil prices.

Brent and WTI are supported by the general weakness of the US dollar after the release of inflation data. The growth of consumer prices in the country reached 7% (in November, inflation was 6.8%), which was the highest since 1982. Against this background, the DXY dollar index showed an impressive drop, updating two-month lows.

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KostiaForexMart
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January 17. Oil jumped to a three-year high

The price of Brent crude oil on Monday jumped sharply to a three-year high at $86.69 per barrel. The cost of a barrel of North American WTI oil has risen to $84.09 (the maximum since November 10, 2021).

The main support for the oil market is provided by expectations that supply will remain limited against the background of curbing production by major producers, and global demand will not suffer from a wave of infections with the Omicron coronavirus strain.

Analysts note that bullish sentiment persists, as OPEC+ does not provide sufficient supply to meet high global demand. And if investment funds increase the share of crude oil, prices may reach 2014 highs.

Experts are also confident that a summer surge in demand is inevitable ahead, especially in Europe and the United States, which may be greater than last year (if the hopes that Omicron will finally turn the Covid-19 pandemic into an epidemic are justified).

However, during the day, Brent quotes declined slightly, to the level of $85.60 per barrel, amid an increase in production in Libya. According to the National Oil Corporation of the country, the total volume of oil production has returned to the level of 1.2 million barrels per day. Recall that last week production in Libya was about 900 thousand barrels per day due to the blockade of western fields.

January 14. European stock exchanges decline on Friday

According to Friday's trading data, Europe's main stock indexes are declining after the release of data on the first monthly trade deficit in the eurozone in almost eight years. A similar indicator in the UK, which is now not part of the euro area, is fixed at almost zero.

The German DAX index declined during the day to 15,833.73 points, the French CAC 40 – to 7,119.01 points, the British FTSE 100 – to 7,523.02 points.

European macro statistics exerted pressure on the stock market. Thus, the deficit of the foreign trade balance of the eurozone countries in November amounted to 1.5 billion euros after a surplus of 3.6 billion in October. At the same time, analysts expected a surplus of 7.6 billion euros. The European statistical Agency Eurostat also noted that the trade deficit was recorded for the first time in a month since January 2014.

It is also worth noting that the stock markets of Europe repeat the dynamics of the American and Asian ones, which closed mainly in the red (due to news about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in these countries).
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