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19.05.2014

Fundamental analysis

There was enough volatility for Forex at the end of the last week. The EUR/USD ended the trading day at the opening level despite the weak Eurozone macroeconomic data. The GDP release on Q1 came out worse than the median prognosis; the final figure was 0.2 %, indicating the region structural problems. Among the leading economies of the euro area only in Germany the data were better than the median rate prognosis while the Italian economy went all into the negative region by 0.1%.

The reduced euro/pound cross supported moderate demand for GBP/USD during the Friday. The Eurozone negative macroeconomic statistics cheered "bears" to open short positions in the cross-course. The "bulls" in the GBP/USD went hunting amid the short-term oversold against the British pound against the U.S. dollar.

Japan's GDP report for the 1st quarter pleased investors with strong data - the final figure was 1.5 % qoq that is better on 0.5% than consensus prognosis. The low sales tax helped the Japan economy in the first three months of this year, triggering a high consumer activity. The positive report supported the moderate demand for the yen in Asian trading session. Do not forget about the stock exchanges trading dynamics. Investors take profits on world markets shares after prolonged growth, which sparked a price drop wave. The dollar/yen lost 0.3 %.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro fell at the end of the week, as it was pressed by regular ECB comments which indicated the possible easing in the near future. The ECB Vice President V. Constancio, speaking in Berlin, said, "If necessary, we are ready to act quickly and do not exclude the further easing possibility" which in couple with the inflation data weakness presented at the final assessment can become a serious psychological factor provoking euro selling.

The first support is 1.3670, the next one is 1.3610. The first resistance is 1.3710, the next one is 1.3760.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span.

The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative area.

Trading recommendations

The deep support level 1.3680 retest and rising trend line were followed by a pull back and closing the daily candle above the elevation data.

The bounce from 1.3700 rising trend line will allow buers to raise the price to 1.3800.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound was influenced by the general market sentiment and also like the other majors, at first fell against the dollar, and then strengthened. The pound fixed a slight increase as a session result that can be attributed to greater market confidence in sterling amid the Britain stable economic growth. Britain did not publish any important release for the sterling sentiment, so the pound will be influenced by the external events again, first of all happening in the United States, cause the most interesting news package was getting ready there.

The support is 1.6800, the next one is 1.6730. The resistance is 1.6860, the next one is 1.6940.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and under the Chinkou Span.

The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The prolonged consolidation development in 1.6755 - 1.6730 is more likely to provide a good signal to the price bounce up.

The bounce potential targets will be the mark 1.6900, this month high 1.6970 retest.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese currency had reduced against the dollar at first, closed yesterday's session with a convincing "profit". The support for the dollar/yen, which took place for a short time amid the Bank of Japan head H. Kuroda’s speech, expressing disagreement with the opinion that the further monetary policy easing possibility is limited, changes under the pressure the "Treasuries " impressive rising for the third consecutive day.

The support is 101.00. The first resistance is 101.60, the next is one 102.23.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span.

The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The 101.35 mark failed test signals that we expect the consolidation formation with the further price bounce up.

The potential targets bounce will be two resistance levels located at 102.25 and 102.65.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The franc stabilized after rising amid the dollar’s general weakening against major currencies. The dollar has lost its achievements against the euro after the unexpectedly weak United States industrial production data publication.

The selling was intensified after it became aware the U.S. unexpected April industrial production drop by 0.6 % against the expected growth of 0.1%.

Earlier it was reported that the U.S. consumer price index in April was 2.0 % vs. 2.0 % and 1.5 % in March. Core CPI in April was 1.8 % vs. 1.7 %.

The first support is 0.8890, the next one is 0.8850. The first resistance is 0.8920, the next is one 0.8950.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.

Trading recommendations

It is advised to consider long positions. The first target - 0.8982. When the price consolidates above the first target it might go to 0.9091.



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20.05.2014

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs completed the trading in narrow ranges. The EUR/USD despite the "bull" predominance consolidated near the 37 figure. The USA macroeconomic statistics showed a mixed trend. Housing market indicators - the issued building permits volume and the Housing Starts number came out better than the median forecast which is positive for many American economy sectors. At the same time, the report from the Michigan's Institute on the May consumer confidence index disappointed investors for a total value amounted to 81.8 instead of consensus-forecast 84.1.

The demand for the GBP/USD was noted due to the lower euro/pound cross-course. The current levels look attractive for the long positions formation and we can expect some activity from speculators. After the Michigan Institute consumer confidence weak report the pressure on the greenback was strengthened.

The USD/JPY traded in a narrow flat throughout the day. The moderate demand in global stock markets could not cheer the "bulls" to open long positions. The published macroeconomic indicators from the United States also did not contribute to the U.S. dollar demand against the Japanese yen. The consumer confidence index decrease from the Michigan Institute indicates a possible personal consumption decrease in May which is negative for economic growth rates.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

Attitude towards the euro remained “bearish”. However, the political moments became the "drivers" for the single currency sales showing an increase in "pigeon" sentiment among those who influence the EU main bank monetary trend. The economic statistics, although showed some positive results rarely caused a negative reactions to the euro and if it even did it was not for a long time.

The first support is 1.3670, the next one is 1.3610. The first resistance is 1.3710, the next one is 1.3760.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

There was held retest week, rising trendline and 1.3700 strong support level 1.3680. The volumes near so strong levels form a small divergence, indicating a possible price up rebound.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound also was down against the dollar most of the past week, but began leveling losses and returned lost growth part by the session end. Obviously, interest in sterling could be increased by technical factors presented strong support for the GBP / USD pair, and the weakest arguments range that allow a negative attitude to the "cable" because the "Isles" economy continues to grow.

Judging the growth rates were not confirmed by volume, it is likely to observe another rising trend line 1.6730 retest, or consolidation level development on 1.6760 support.

The support is 1.6800, the next one is 1.6730. The resistance is 1.6860, the next one is 1.6940.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and under the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going down. The first target is 1.6750. The second target is 1.6670.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese currency as opposed to the rest of the majors most of the last five days grew against the "buck". The mood to buy yen was created by situation in the U.S. government debt market, where the "Treasuries" yield fell. The dollar was traded in a narrow range against the yen and closed the day with a small minus. In this case, the slightly decreased States bond price and the U.S. housing market yield encouraging report didn’t help to the dollar.

The support is 101.00. The first resistance is 101.60, the next is one 102.23.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

Sellers have been trying to break down a strong 101.40 support level for the second week. As long as the price is trading in the downward channel sellers remain strong. The first target is 101. If the pair breaks the first target it will go to 100.60.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

Franc decreased by the week results. However, the week end European currencies support from the unexpectedly weak the USA industrial production. The selling was intensified after it became aware of an unexpected drop in the U.S. April industrial production by 0.6 % against the expected growth 0.1%.

As the world continues to monitor the situation in Ukraine, the UN Commission on Human Rights is concerned about «rights violations" in the Ukraine east. The observers concerned about the presidential candidates safety, as well as aggression and Crimean residents possible deportation who did not agree to take Russian citizenship.

The first support is 0.8890, the next one is 0.8850. The first resistance is 0.8920, the next is one 0.8950.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.

Trading recommendations

The growth stopped. The pair is moving in a flat. We expect it to turn down and will return to the bearish path. The first target is 0.8850, the pair may decrease to 0.8790 after consolidation below that level.

21.05.2014

Fundamental analysis

There was relatively quiet trade on the major pairs amid the lack of the important macroeconomic statistics publication at the beginning of the trade week. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD enjoyed a moderate demand in the light of technically oversold and short positions closing.

The Eurozone construction fell to 0.6 % in March compared with February, after four months of growth. Particularly, the strong construction decrease was observed in the Eurozone’s biggest economy - Germany. According to the Bundesbank's monthly report published on Monday – it is expected to slow the German economy growth in the second quarter. The increased risks in developing countries and geopolitical uncertainties in Eastern Europe complicate the economy situation.

The pound was little changed on the day before the Tuesday UK inflation data release. It is expected to accelerate the annual inflation rate - to 1.8 % in April, compared to 1.6 % in March. According to Rightmove, the UK house prices continued to rise for the fifth month in a row. The house price index from Rightmove rose by 3.6 % m/m in May, the biggest monthly gain since April 2002.

The world's leading stock markets decrease put pressure on the USD/JPY and the quotations drop to 101.09. A good machinery and equipment orders report didn’t help the "bulls" which showed a substantial increase to the 19.1 % level in March, indicating the industrial production rate growth in Japan. Traditionally, there is a demand for the U.S. dollar in the light of positive data - but this time, market participants have ignored this report. In the afternoon, the stock market trend turned around and we saw a dollar/yen moderate demand.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

News from the European continent did not have a lot of economic statistics. We can note only the Eurozone construction release on March, which indicated the reduction by 0.6 % m / m and 5.2% growth compared with the last year same period. The political bloc had more news, which will provide ECB leaders’ - Weidmann and Mersch - speeches.

The trading on the euro continued through sideways consolidation for five days. But it is worth noting the fact that the major support levels 1.3700 and 1.3680 are not broke down.

The first support is 1.3670, the next one is 1.3610. The first resistance is 1.3710, the next one is 1.3760.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The consolidation development is clearly on hand to buyers because namely from the 1.3700 and 1.3680 levels may happen the price bounce up to a further medium rising trend development.

A potential target for a possible bounce up will be the 1.3800 resistance level.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The pound/dollar is not an exception, and also was closed with neutral results after range sideways consolidation. There were several news from the "islands", the only worthwhile message was received from Rightmove and indicated that the housing market prices continue to rise - the price index in May recorded 3.6 % m/m, 8.9 % y/y after 2.6 % m/m, 7.3 % y/y.

The support is 1.6800, the next one is 1.6730. The resistance is 1.6860, the next one is 1.6940.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and under the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going down. The first target is 1.6755. The second target is 1.6670.

For the growth the target is 1.6970.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen also closed the trades on opening price, but the volatility on this instrument was more sweeping than in other major pairs. The Japanese currency strengthened against the dollar in the light of Japan stock market falling, and then we observed the yen selling, as the U.S. stock market figured slight optimism, and the 10-years “Treasuries”’ prices drop.

The support is 101.00. The first resistance is 101.60, the next is one 102.23.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

There is a four-days consolidation at the 101.35 support level with one false break. The potential bounce targets from 101.35 are two resistance levels - 102.25 and 102.65.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The franc has consolidated after the falling in the light of the dollar general strengthening against the major currencies.

The dollar is supported by speculation regarding the asset buying program soon completion.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve representative, Williams said that "we are moving in the normalization direction, and seriously considering rate hikes starting date".

FRS is likely to raise rates in the future, as the monetary policy normalization part and QE will be completed in the second half of 2014.

The first support is 0.8890, the next one is 0.8850. The first resistance is 0.8920, the next is one 0.8950.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.

Trading recommendations

The dollar/franc stuck in a narrow range between the 0.8903 and 0.8923 levels. The pressure on the franc is still present. The "bullish" testing risks are at the current highs 0.8959. This level break will open the way to the 91st figure. Falling below 0.8840-0.8800 will weaken "bullish" momentum and jeopardize the 87th figure.




 

22.05.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar fell against the yen and the British pound, but rose to the commodity currencies; it little changed against other major currencies. Fed's Dudley said that the growth rates would be relatively slow, but they would depend on the economy state. Between the end of the Fed's asset repurchase autumn and the first rate increase – it will take a considerable time period.

The euro was traded slightly lower on Germany manufacturing inflation weak data. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell in April by 0.1 % compared with the previous month, whereas no change was expected. In annual terms, manufacturing inflation fell by 0.9 % against decrease expectations by 0.8% - the producer price has been decreasing the ninth consecutive months in a roll.

The UK consumer price inflation positive report supported the demand for the GBP/USD pair. The final rate rose to 1.8 % on an annualized basis, exceeding the market participant’s expectations. As we noted in our previous review - unemployment reducing combined with a moderate rise in consumer confidence indicator from GfK indicates an increase in Albion inflationary pressure. Against this background, GBP/USD went up.

The Japanese stock market sales led to the USD/JPY lowering yesterday. Investors get rid of Japanese shares before the Bank of Japan monetary - credit policy meeting and amid this "bears" rushed to open short positions in the profit earning hope.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The single European currency fell against the dollar. Though the euro/dollar continued a lateral "drift" it fell a bit to the low range boundary. Perhaps the market is waiting for new drivers while the Eurozone was newsflow empty for several sessions. The Germany producer showed a fall in April more than expected, and had a downward effect on the pair.

Six days in a row the euro continues to consolidate near the two strong levels: rising trendline 1.3700 and strong support level 1.3680.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3710, the next one is at 1.3760.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

All indicators show a downward movement. We predict a bearish scenario The first target is 1.3650. If the pair breaks the first target it will go to 1.3600.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British sterling grew up against the dollar in yesterday’s trading. The pound received a support after the inflation publication has shown some growth. As it turned out, the UK annual inflation rate rose in April, but the value was in the forecasts range, therefore, it is likely that pound buying splash was not developed and fleet.

On the daily chart the Pound continues to trade in the rising trend line direction. There is an up strong resistance level 1.6830 breakthrough on the inside daily timeframe.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.7000.

There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be continued as long the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 1.7000.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pair is downwardly traded. The yen grew against the dollar, but didn’t rise out beyond previously formed extrema, and was limited with the range growth. Obviously, the pressure on pair was exerted by the renewed decrease in the U.S. "treasuries" market yields and the Bank of Japan decision expectations of making at a rate meeting that ended on Wednesday. We doubt that the Bank of Japan will continue to expand its monetary policy tapering the near future.

Four months of long consolidation at 101.35 - 101.45 led to its breakthrough. The breakdown occurred at the diminishing volumes and can lead to consolidation at around 101.15 in the short term.

The price is finding the support at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 101, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 100.90 and 100.40.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The Swiss franc was traded in a fairly narrow range. The American session was full with Fed’s new. So, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said that the Fed might be forced to raise interest rates sooner than it was expected. He also noted that the unemployment rate forecast 6.2% at the annualized basis may be too pessimistic, but decrease below 6% by the end of 2014 is quite possible.

His colleague, New York Fed President William Dudley said that «nobody knows" when the Federal Reserve would raise its interest rates.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 0.8990.




 

26.05.2014

Fundamental analysis

The U.S. currency showed strength against its major competitors last week. The EUR/USD lost some positions at 0.25 % after negative statistics release. The France and Germany manufacturing sector PMI index came out worse than median the forecast was which confirms the regional economy leading business negative trend. In the light of this we saw a European currency gradual weakening during the week.

The GBP/USD also remained under some pressure after the 1st quarter revised GDP data publication. The second estimate remained unchanged at 0.8 % qoq, while the industrial production growth and net exports were revised to decrease by 0.1%. The investors decided that the reason was the British pound high rate and began its active selling. As a result, the GBP/USD ended the last trading day lower by 0.2%.

The steady demand in global equity markets cheered the USD/JPY "bulls" to open long positions. It didn’t spoil the investor’s mood and moderately negative report on sales in the United States secondary housing market. The index rose by 1.3 % in April which is worse than the economists forecast. It should be noted that even though the final figures could not held up to the market participants expectations – nevertheless the housing market in April showed an increase after three consecutive months of falling, which means increased consumer confidence in the United States.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The attitude towards the euro was cold, so the European currency was under pressure from the dollar by the end of Friday's session and was on the local marked minima that showed the dollar/yen the day before. Obviously, pessimistic investors are all have the same expectations from the ECB tapering in the coming June, coupled with economy data which could be described rather as weak. The first May evaluation business activity indicators showed a Eurozone decrease.

The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The inclined support line 1.3630 - 1.3625 that is on downward price way can become an obstacle where the price can bounce up.

If buyers are able to break above the mark 1.3610,we can expect the pair to test 1.3687 - 1.3700 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound also weakened against the dollar, and also, as the euro had not gone beyond the previously formed by a side corridor. As we see the pressure was from the weak data that were worse than expected.

The second resistance level retest 1.6910 was followed by the corrective rates down bounce. The price rebound fell to the rising channel bottom 1.6860. At this level it continues trading in real time.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6940.

The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

Based on the current situation, the price movement can go in two ways:

- The corrective pullback down continuation to 1.6830.

- The price growth from the current position to the resistance level 1.6910.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese stock market positive dynamics and strong Chinese data and manufacturing activity indicator rising in May supported the yen sales against the dollar. The dollar was able to maintain the buying impulse and thanks to the latest data that showed the positive results.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

A bounce down is possible. The potential bounce target is the level 101.35. If sellers can break through that support the price can be lowered to 100.40.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude on the generally positive economic data.

So, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, the Initial Jobless Claims rose from 298,000 to 326,000, while the average forecast was 305,000.

The sales in the secondary housing market showed a small increase 1.3 % in April after three consecutive months of a decrease. However, the index is still 6.8% below the year in April 2013.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.
The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.

Trading recommendations

We advise long positions with the first target - 0.8970. After consolidation above the first target, the buyers’ target is the level 0.9015.



 

28.05.2014

Fundamental analysis

The new trading week is fairly quiet Forex market. The UK and in the U.S. banking institutions were closed, and against this background major pairs currency volatility has significantly decreased. The EUR/USD on a daily basis put on weight 0.15 %, demonstrating a technical correction. Mario Draghi said that the monetary regulator would not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long time.

It was also stated that the European consumer spending restrains his expecting lower price and it increases the risks to price region stability. These negative comments were ignored by investors during the day and the euro/dollar enjoyed moderate demand.

The GBP/USD trading was quietly enough during the day. On the background of low liquidity it was difficult to count on the volatility.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General survey

The European currency slightly fell against the dollar, which was probably the result of the technical levels influence, providing support for the pair now. We did not receive anything interesting from the Eurozone, still the general background rather plays against the euro after Mario Draghi said that the disinflation can cause consumers and businesses to postpone purchases and investments. The Bank will not allow the inflation to remain too low for a long period of time.

Trading recommendations

The potential pullback target may become the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3680. We expect it to retest the resistance level 1.3690. If the volumes are low, the price may bounce down. The potential decrease target is the price support level 1.3570



Pound (GBP)

General survey

The dollar strengthened against the pound. The reason is the technical factors that weakened the pair, as we know there was no release yesterday. It is expected that the report of the British Bankers' Association (BBA) will show a reduction in the April mortgage approvals number from 45.2 thousand to 45.9 previously.

There was a strong support level 1.6830 retest last Friday. The sellers once again failed to break below; there was price bounce up. The volumes do not support the correctional pound growth.

Trading recommendations

The price bounced off the strong support level 1.6830, a potential target for growth is the descending trendline 1.6890.

If the pair keeps falling it will reach 1.6830 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General survey

The yen continued the growth. The last BoJ meeting minutes, which took place on April 30 affected the market. The minutes showed the disagreement that appeared among the Central Bank members in relation to the overcoming deflation terms. The Japanese data showed the corporate services growth in April, the price grew to 3.4% y/y vs. 0.7 % y/ y, although that may be considered as the Bank of Japan policy consequence, but still, most likely looks like a result of increased tax sales.

Trading recommendations

We believe that the price will consolidate for a while at around 102.23, then will bounce down. The sellers need to break the lower uplink bound 101.90 to confirm the break.

If the pair keeps growing it will get to 102.40 soon.



Franc (CHF)

General survey

The dollar keeps a moderately positive attitude. Switzerland will publish GDP (q/q) (Q1). The numbers are expected to be 0.6 % versus 0.2 %. If to compare with the previous year the growth will be 2.1% versus 1.7 %. The United States will publish the durable goods orders. In April, the main index is expected at 0.4 % vs. 2.6%.

Trading recommendations

It is recommended long positions with the first target - 0.8986. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9016.



 

29.05.2014

Fundamental analysis

On Wednesday, the U.S. currency continued to strengthen against most of its competitors. The EUR/USD remained under pressure against the positive macroeconomic statistics publication from the United States. The orders for durable goods in April rose by 0.8 %, which indicates increased demand from the U.S. consumers and the positive factor for economic growth.

The euro was down against the ECB officials statements backdrop which reinforced expectations monetary policy easing, although it was slightly strengthened at the beginning of the day. The ECB Novotny said that inflation in the euro area was significantly below the target level ECB's 2%, and so low that there was a decrease growth risk. Novotny made it clear that the current discussions are directed toward interest rates lowering. The European Central Bank President Draghi said the ECB kept in mind the risks related with too long low inflation period still he did not see the deflation risk.

The Bears actively sold the GBP/USD pair yesterday. The States pleased investors with positive orders for durable goods and consumer confidence from Conference Board. Together with the EUR/GBP cross-course short positions closing - British pound significantly weakened against its U.S. counterpart.

The Rally in global stock markets supports the demand for the USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the "bulls" rather cautiously go long, knowing that in the face of rising inflationary pressures in the Land of the Rising Sun it is difficult to expect a strong Japanese yen weakening. As a result, the USD/JPY ended trading with symbolic increase by 0.1%.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency was not able to get support and fell again against the dollar in yesterday's trading. There was not published any important data on the Eurozone economy yesterday, and another Draghi’s speech in its content was more about euro sales.

The price is finding the support at 1.357. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going down. The indicators show a downward movement. As long as the price is trading in the downward channel sellers remain strong. Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound is the most vulnerable currency this week. The falling market mortgage reports have pushed sterling to the sale which was then supported by the U.S. economy data. According to the report the British Bankers' Association BBA approvals for mortgage fell in April to 42.2 thousand from 45. 9 thousand and the expected reduction to only 45.0 thousand.

For the fifth time the British pound corrected to the week rising trendline 1.6790 and broke it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6670, the next one is at 1.6600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6800.

The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.

Trading recommendations

The pair is decreasing. The indicators confirm a downward movement. The GBP/USD continued the downward movement on a high volume. The potential targets for the decrease are 1.6670 and 1.6600.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen yesterday's session was held in multidirectional trade and closed the day nearly on opening prices. Obviously, the market is waiting for new guidelines, as political events related to the Bank of Japan statements and contain conflicting signals and do not have certain conclusions. Under these conditions, the increased importance get the Japanese economy April data, especially the consumer price index (CPI) which will be released in the last trading day of the week and month.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.

The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar rose to seven -week high after the report showed an unexpected increase in orders for durable goods in April.

Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for the U.S. GDP growth in the second half with a 3.50 % to 3.25 %. The forecast for the first quarter decreased to 0.8 % due to falling stocks, and the forecast for the second quarter maintained at 3.7 %.

The published U.S. statistics showed that orders for durable goods in April rose 0.8 % vs. 0.5 % and 2.5 % in March.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.

The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

The support is at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.

MACD is in the positive territory that supports the growth.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The potential target for the growth is the resistance 0.9000.




 

02.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

We had a volatile the last trading day. The EUR/USD gained 0.1 % against the negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The second GDP estimate for Q1 came out worse than the median forecast, indicating a significant decrease in the world's leading economy in the first three months of this year. However, we have not seen the sharp dollar fall – euro downtrend is strong enough and one negative report is not enough to change the trend now.

There was consolidation near 67 figure on the GBP/USD during the last trading day. The technical analysis shows that the British currency is short-term oversold now and the investors quickly close their short positions. It should also be noted that the market participants have ignored the negative statistics from the U.S. GDP for Q1.

Though the world's leading stock markets strong growth - the USD/JPY has been swung for 4 consecutive days that can be a sign of a possible decrease in the short term. The U.S. GDP data revision also could not cheer the "bulls" to open long positions - according to the second estimate the index dropped to 1 % qoq which means the world economy locomotive significant slowing.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European currency was influenced by the external events, mainly from the U.S., which resulted in the mixed traffic and, ultimately, against the "greenback" closure almost at opening prices with a small "profit" that was the result of the technical factors. The Eurozone newsflow did not show any significant news. The information that could attract the investors’ attention had been already published it is April German retail sales that fell by 0.9 % m/m

The price is finding the support at 1.3570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

Please be advised to go short to 1.3570. If the price consolidates below the first target it will go to 1.3520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound did not show independence, and in the news absence it showed the same volatility against the dollar as the euro. As a result, the "cable" nearly closed at opening prices. The GfK report announced an improvement in the consumer May confidence indicator to the level 0 from - 3, the Hometrack information showed that the housing prices continued to rise in May, although less rapidly, +0.5% m/m , 6.1 % y/y vs. 0.6 % m/m , 6.0 % y/y in April. While this facts support the sterling, and it grew up a bit against the dollar. However, the further events development is already dictated by the U.S. indicators results and it can shift the emphasis in favor of "greenback".

The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.

The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.

Trading recommendations

Please be advised to go short. Our targets are 1.6670 and 1.6630.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The course practically ignored the country statistics.

The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude despite the weak U.S. GDP data in Q1. The labor market supported the U.S. currency in a way. The initial jobless claims fell to 300k vs. 318k.

The GDP in Q1 was decreased by 1.0 % q / q vs. 0.5 % q / q and 0.1% preliminary assessment.

It is unlikely that the data will have the lasting impact on the trading as the result cannot be called unexpected due to the last winter weather inclement.

The price is finding the first support at 0.892. The resistance is at 0.8950.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal.

The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair has stopped the growth and is showing the trend reversal. The pair may enter the cloud this week. If the pair stays under the cloud a while that might weaken the bullish momentum. The first downward target is the level 0.8920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency was no exception and also ended the last session at the near opening prices after the multidirectional consolidation against the dollar. In this case, the main volatility cause was the U.S. debt market events which almost always affect the dollar/yen. Japan published news set from the previous month. The inflation dynamics and demand for yen was influenced by the sales tax increased in April, not from the Japan Bank's measures.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The indicators do not give certain signals. The market content is bearish though the pair is in the upward movement. The potential sell target is 101.60.

The alternative growth variant is 1021.23.



 

04.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The U.S. dollar briskly started the first summer month. The EUR/USD lost 0.25% against the negative macroeconomic statistics. The preliminary CPI in Germany showed the inflationary pressure compression to the level 0.9 % year on year, the lowest level since July 2010. This report indicates that the Germans are under the negativity wave from the structural problems in the Eurozone now.

The States also well pleased the dollar "bulls"– the ISM manufacturing index in May was better than the median forecasts, has been showing the growth the 4th consecutive month.




The weak PMI report from Markit Economics for the UK manufacturing sector provoked short positions in the pair GBP/USD. This release confirms the fact that the British currency excessive growth is negative for the economy manufacturing sector. In a moment the GBP/USD price fell to 1.6724 mark, and then we watched a technical bounce, signaling the demand for sterling in figure 67.

The strong growth in the Japanese stock market on Monday cheered the "bulls" to open long positions. The 102.13 resistance level could not resist and we saw the maximum values update for the last 4 weeks.

Macroeconomic statistics from the United States also supported the demand for the U.S. dollar against the Yen - the ISM manufacturing sector was at 56, which is 0.3 better than the forecast surveyed by Bloomberg.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell against the dollar on Monday, still it has not left the consolidation range. The pressure on the single currency came from the economic data provided by the Eurozone manufacturing activity final assessment and the leading countries in May, as well as the German inflation report in the same month.

The price is finding the support at 1.3610. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.

Trading recommendations

The consolidation at 1.3600 can lead to the price pullback up in the short term. To short confidently the sellers need to break and consolidate below the support level 1.3600. This breakthrough opens the way to the marks: 1.3570, 1.3520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound/dollar spent a very boring session yesterday – it was traded in a narrow range and closed the day almost at opening prices, but with a dollar benefits mark. The "islands" statistics indicated unsatisfactory dynamics, still at the same time, showed that the economy recovers.

The short-term 1.6765 resistance level retest which was observed last Friday, was accompanied with the consolidation. The continued consolidation has not led to a rapid price bounce while the trading is still going on in the strong resistance area.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.

The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.

Trading recommendations

We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest is false, it will be followed by a downward price bounce, back to the support level 1.6700.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar keeps moderately positive attitude after the May ISM report corrected publication taking into account seasonal factors, which were not included in the original report released an hour earlier.

Thus the ISM index was revised from 53.2 to 56.0 and then to 55.4. We also expected the May business activity report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after which the data will be available to investors on the production orders.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Please be advised to long with the first target - 0.9015. When the price consolidates above the first target, be advised to buy to 0.9040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency fell against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The impulse for the yen sales the pair received from the Chins industry data which showed good results and decreased concerns about a sharp slowdown in the "Middle Kingdom" economy. Besides, the willingness to take risks was maintained by optimism in the stock Japan market - Nikkei rose by more than 2.0 %, as well as stability of the U.S. Treasuries government debt market situation where the yield is high. Speaking of prospects, which began yesterday, the USD/JPY is likely to slow down - it is unlikely that the market was ready to an aggressive trading before important news from the euro area and the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.

The MACD indicator left the neutral territory and started growing.

Trading recommendations

The growth main target is the strong resistance level 102.70.



 

05.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

Despite the negative macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone EUR/USD showed a growth of 0.2 %. The preliminary Eurozone CPI report came out worse than the forecast at 0.5% which once again confirms the presence of a deflationary threat. But the unemployment rate gave a little surprise, the total value amounted to 11.7%, which is 0.1 % better than the median of forecasts. The lowest unemployment recorded in Austria 4.9%, while in Greece and Spain is still a level of over 25%. The investors decided to take profit on short positions in anticipation of the ECB today's meeting.

GBP/USD "bulls" and "Bears" failed to reveal the winner yesterday. The construction sector PMI came below expectations that did not allow the "bulls" to consolidate above the resistance level 1.6773. It should also be noted that the figure drops 4 consecutive months that could indicate a possible peak in the growth phase and the subsequent decline.

After a small correction in the first half of the day the USD/JPY continued to rise again against the demand for risky assets. Investors are buying on pullbacks American and Japanese securities that pushes stocks up and supports the demand for the dollar/yen in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency has grown up in yesterday's trading against the dollar. The euro still in a sideways and showed no new levels. However, under unfavorable for optimism statistics from the EU conditions, the fact that the euro strengthening was little understood and generally surprise event. Perhaps the market has already sufficient opened short positions while short-term investors took advantage of strong support to lock in profits.

The downward trend has moved into a side corridor between the levels 1.3645 - 1.3570. While the pair has been trading at the 1.3590 support level for five days. The short-term support retests are accompanied by the price rebounds up.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.

Trading recommendations

If the pair keeps falling its targets are 1.3570 and 1.3520. The first target to grow is 1.3670. If today’s ECB meeting does not shock the market the downward movement continues.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

British pound was in the side trading against the dollar and closed the day at opening prices. The latest news marked the construction industry slowdown which disappointed the market. According to the report the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the construction sector fell to 60.0 in May from 60.8 in April which was worse than the forecast growth to 61.2. There is a chance that the Bank of England would discuss rates raising at its next meeting and it will provoke the pound growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.

The price is below the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signals.

Trading recommendations

We are waiting for the second 1.6765 level retest. If the retest fails, we will see a a downward price bounce, back to the support level 1.6700.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. The published statistical supported the franc and against the background of zero inflation National Bank announces increase in its foreign exchange reserves.

According to the report submitted by the Federal Statistical Office the consumer prices level in March remained unchanged. This news was very positive amid predictions be expected to have lower price by 0.2%. The March index value was also a better indicator of February when prices fell by 0.1 %.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. We believe it might correct a bit. The correctional targets are 0.8920 and 0.8880.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency fell against the dollar again. Greenback growth against the yen was supported by the Japan stock market optimism where the Nikkei rose again and the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds to increase their profitability. It is possible that the market has remembered the Bank of Japan Governor H. Kuroda's statement that if there were risks to achieving the inflation target of 2.0%, then BoJ has ways to eliminate them through further monetary easing.

The buyers came to the resistance level 102.65 at decreasing volumes. The short-term level retest was accompanied by a small upper bound uplink 102.75 puncture which acts a further obstacle to the rising trend.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.

The MACD indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

The growth main target is the strong resistance level 102.70. After consolidation above the pair might grow to 103.



 

06.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The investors continue to look with optimism at the U.S. currency. The EUR/USD lost 0.10% - in spite the fact that it was a short-term oversold the "bulls" could not take control. Even the negative statistics from the U.S. ADP employment and the trade balance did not reassure "bulls" to long. After the ISM services sector positive release there were sales. The total figure came at around 56.3, which is the maximum value over the past 8 months and confirms the U.S. economy strong growth in the second quarter.

The GBP/USD has been showing a "swing" for three consecutive days - "bulls" and "bears" cannot determine the winner. The UK Services PMI in May though was better than the forecast; nonetheless it showed a decrease compared with the previous months that did not give the British currency a strong support. The United States Statistics also failed to show to market participants the direction - two of four important reports came in the negative area and other two in the positive one.

The U.S. stock index S & P500 sets new and new historical high which supports the demand for shares in the Japanese stock markets. In the light of this we were witnessing the USD/JPY pair quotations growth. The states demonstrated mixed newsflow– the reports from ADP and the trade balance went worse then the forecast was while investors were pleased with the services sector ISM. The ISM employment also showed a growth in the second spring month, indicating a possible exit data on Non-Farm slightly better than expected.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB lowered the rates as the result the European currency showed mixed volatility against the dollar and closed the day with losses yesterday, but within the formed range. The frustration on the single currency was provoked and by the weak activity estimate in the service sector and the Eurozone as a whole unit. The managers' index (PMI) for the service sector in Germany was revised down to 56.0 from 56.4

Almost weekly trading was in a side corridor between the levels 1.3645 - 1.3590. On the one hand bearish trend remains in force since downward channel upper bound 1.3630 has not been broken. And on the other side the five-day consolidation at support level 1.3590 is a good chance to change the current trend model.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The histogram is close to the zero level.

Trading recommendations

If buyers can break above the resistance level 1.3645, in the longer term we will expect growth to 1.3690, 1.3725 marks.

If the bears take the control over the market we will see the bearish movement continuation towards 1.3500.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British sterling did not show much volatility yesterday having closed the day at almost opening prices. Obviously, the weak and the strong economic indicators results in both countries maintain the balance and leave low activity on the pair. The data published yesterday a bit supported the sterling as the key economic sphere continued to grow in May.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.

The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is grwoing.

Trading recommendations

From a technical point of view, the British pound may again fall to the support level that was tested the day before yesterday, but had not been broken down.

If sellers can break the support level 1.6730, we should expect the approach to the daily support level 1.6670.

The growth upwards can cancel the downward correction.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc rose slightly against the U.S. dollar having broken the strong resistance 0.9000. The U.S. dollar retained or strengthened against most major currencies after the ECB report.

Most of the regional Fed noted continued growth "rate from modest to moderate", which supports the idea that the Fed in the near future will not change the monetary policy.

In particular we noted an increase in consumer spending, improvement in the manufacturing sector, as well as continued problems in the housing sector. Despite the price pressures restraint, several counties reported an increase in price for certain goods groups, particularly food.

The labor market situation was improved.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend long positions with the first target - 0.9015. After consolidation above the first target, we can buy to the level 0.9040.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency fell against the dollar to new low and finished it with another loss. The dollar/yen was influenced by technical factors that prevented the price to grow above it and triggering a rollback down, as well as events in the U.S. government debt market, where the profitability "Treasuries" growth returned the yen under pressure, and this has helped the dollar to fix eventually benefit.

The interest to the yen rose again and it strengthens the current session against the dollar, which may be the pessimism fault in the "Land of the Rising Sun." stock market.

The strong resistance level retest 102.65 led to the consolidation which in turn is a signal for short-term price down pullback.

The bounce from the resistance level 102.65 may correct the U.S. dollar to the nearest support located at around 102.23.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.

The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current price sentiment.

Trading recommendations

The immediate growth is the resistance level 102.70. If the price breaks it, the way towards 103.20 will be opened.

The pair may continue the downward correction towards 102.23.




 

09.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

As it was expected - the ECB started the monetary - credit policy easing having lowered the interest rate by 0.15% and introducing the negative deposit rate for commercial banks. The monetary regulator first went to such drastic action as low inflation, leaving the other no choice.

During the press conference after the meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the key ECB interest rates would remain at current levels for an extended time period. These measures will contribute to higher inflation 2%. He also left the door open for the new mitigation measures, stating that "if necessary, we will promptly implement further easing."

The initial jobless claims grew by 8 thousand to 312 thousand, while they were expected to grow only up to 310 thousand. The data for the previous week was revised to the downside from 300 thousand to 304 thousand average number applications over the past four weeks fell by 2.25 thousand - from 312.50 to 310.25 thousand. This is the lowest index value since June 2007.

There were announced the Bank of England meeting results – we did not get any surprises, the monetary policy as expected remained unchanged. In the light of this the GBP/USD followed the euro/dollar.

Nikkei 225 futures were under the pressure on long positions profit that cheered "bears" for the going short.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General survey

Awaited event happened - the ECB lowered its key interest rate and was the first one to introduce negative interest rates on the bank deposits. Furthermore, it was stated that the Central Bank resumes lending (LTRO) and it would not sterilize liquidity and preparing operations in quantitative easing. However, all these measures only briefly pressed the single currency, which eventually returned to its original positions and finished the last trading day with the rise against the dollar. Probably the fact that the direct securities buying so far is only ready, and did not begin to be realized, disappointed the market.

For traders, the last day for the euro/dollar turned out to be quite ambiguous. On the background of fundamental data EUR there was strong support level 1.3590 breakthrough. Then the price sharply turned upward with a further resistance level 1.3645 breakdown.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is in the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.

The MACD indicator is in positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The short-term consolidation above 1.3645 support level in the long term leads to a continuation of the upward trend. The main growth target is the resistance level 1.3725.



Pound (GBP)

General survey

There was not anything unexpected for the pound last trading day- the Bank of England left its interest rate unchanged at a minimum 0.5%, while the total amount of retained bond purchase program stayed at 375 billion pounds. This is in line with expectations and the market barely reacted to it. Nevertheless, the British pound rose against the dollar on the day, the impulse to buy sterling for the "dollar" was created by ECB decisions mood, but also enhances the view that the BoE will start tightening policy sooner than expected. The published news has indicated that the "boom" in the Britain housing market continues.

The resistances break 1.6765 was accompanied by a strong pound growth against the U.S. dollar. The growth rates fell straight to the downward trend line 1.6820.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.

The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in negative area. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

As long as the trading continues in the descending trend line direction the bearish trend remains relevant. The continued consolidation near the trend can be a good signal for the price bounce down. The potential to the price falling is the next support level 1.6765.



Yen (JPY)

General survey

The Japanese currency also strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. Technical factors, falling optimism in the country stock market, as well as statements by the BoJ from the yen trading start against the dollar were maintained. The further yen buying was triggered by the events in Europe where the ECB announced its decisions on monetary policy prospects.

High of April - the resistance level 102.30 currently stopped the U.S. dollar corrective decrease against the Japanese yen.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.

The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current price sentiment.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Sellers approached to the level at high volume, it could lead to the breakthrough 102.30 down in the short term. The potential break target is the upper channel 102.00 lower boundary.



Franc (CHF)

General survey

Frank acts as a «safe haven currency» and the current dollar weakness only helps to strengthen the Swiss currency. The frank rising against the dollar amid the latter weakness after the news resource Wall Street Journal published the Fed John Hilsenrata’s words that the Federal Reserve is actually considering the possibility of further quantitative easing (QE3) in anticipation of speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress on Thursday.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920. The resistance is at 0.8950.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The franc on the foreign exchange market is now advised to consider short positions with the first target - 0.8901. When fixing prices below the first target, a target for sales is encouraged to consider the level 0.8869.

We advise to short with the first target - 0.8901. When the price consolidates below the first target, be advised to consider the level 0.8869 as the next one.




 

11.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The first half of the week the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against major competitors. The EUR/USD remained under the pressure again – the market participants still do not pay much attention to the single European currency against the ECB easing monetary policy backdrop. The leading French bank Societe Generale published the release which indicates that many financial institutions are forced to sell the euro, as the law does not allow them to hold assets with negative returns. The Eurozone investor confidence index from Sentix fell sharply in June to 8.5 compared with 12.8 in May, against the growth expectations. The employment trend index in the U.S. from the Conference Board rose in May to 118.58 with a downwardly revised 117.32 April value.

The GBP/USD was trading in a narrow range 1during the day. On the background of empty macroeconomic calendar investors were not in hurry to open positions and even the euro/pound decrease had no tangible support to the "cable" against the American rival.

In the battle of "bulls" and "bears" for the USD/JPY a winner still has not been identified. We got the final Japan's GDP for Q1. The index was better than the forecast. However, the Japanese yen strong strengthening has not followed. Final figures for the GDP growth in Japan in the 1st quarter were increased to 1.6% q / q vs. 1.5% initial assessment and 0.2% in the previous quarter. This is the maximum growth of 2.5 years, with the third quarter of 2011.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro fell against the dollar and the other majors that probably was caused by the ECB last week influence. It is possible that the market has begun preparations for the upcoming Wednesday when the bank deposits negative interest rate will come into the force.

The buyers failed to continue the upward trend after the price jumped from the strong support level 1.3590 at high volumes. The euro short-term growth has been stopped at the resistance level 1.3670, which was followed by a bounce down.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is below the Kijun-Sen. The Kijun-Sen is directed horizontally. The Cloud is descending.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is descending.

Trading recommendations

The current consolidation is a good signal for the downward trend continuation. The potential decrease target is two levels located at 1.3520 and 1.3480.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound spent yesterday's trading decreasing in a narrow price range against the dollar. There were not interesting news and we can only mention the International Monetary Fund report which has shown an increased concern about the UK housing market where there is a strong price growth and as it was indicated this is the typical bubble sign.

The downward trend line and resistance level 1.6835 retest led to the three days consolidation that is on right now.

The trading volumes near the downward trend line 1.6830 formed a divergence indicating the buyers’ power lowering.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6730, the next one is at 1.6670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6800, the next one is at 1.6860.

The price is in the Cloud and above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upward. The Cloud is descending. The downward movement will be continued as long the price is in the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive area. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

The trend retest is more likely to lead to the price bounce down to the further downtrend continuation.

The main price reduction targets are the two support levels: 1.6730 and 1.6700.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency continues to be influenced by the U.S. government bonds market. The multidirectional fluctuations at yesterday's trading ended on the opening prices – The Japan's GDP for the 1st quarter little supported the yen, but its return under the pressure was caused the U.S. "Treasuries" yield increase

The U.S. dollar decrease against the Japanese yen was to a lower uplink bounce which is located at the strong support level 102.30

The approach to 102.30 occurred at low volumes which gives an additional reason for the price to bounce up. It is likely that the short-term consolidation will be formed at such a strong level.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.20.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is growing.

The MACD is in a positive area and is descending confirming the current sentiment.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 102.60, 102.75. If the price falls it will get to 102.23.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The industrial production growth rate increased in the first quarter, according to preliminary figures released by the Federal Statistical Office. The industrial production growth in the first quarter was 0.5% compared with the first quarter last year. The current data also exceeded the fourth quarter results when there was a growth 0.3%. We can highlight the increase in turnover of 0.1% which compensates the last quarter reduction, fixed at 0.1%. The YoY significant growth (4.3%) showed new orders, after decreasing by 0.5% in the fourth quarter.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950. The resistance is at 0.9000.

The price is above the Cloud and above Chinkou-Span, we have a strong and confirmed buy signal. The Cloud is directed upwards. The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the positive territory, the indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.8950. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.8920.



 

16.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The single currency has slowed its decrease against the U.S. counterpart. The EUR/USD lost symbolic 0.1% yesterday. In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics from the EU and the U.S. – that’s why traders did not hurry to open positions.

The UK April positive unemployment report has supported the demand for the GBP/USD. The index went slightly better than the forecasts at 6.6%. The Average Earnings Index in April showed a value 0.7%, the lowest level since March 2013. This factor is negative for the inflation growth and the UK inflation is below the target level 2% now.

The USD/JPY traders received the first "wake-up call" from Japan - the BSI for large manufacturers in the second quarter showed a decrease to the level -13.9, which is the lowest in the last 11 quarters. This negative release casts doubt optimistic statements by the Bank of Japan about the prospects for economic growth. Against this backdrop, there were sales on the stock exchange in Tokyo, which in turn put pressured the pair.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The pair could get out of the low and then returned above its last trading range. The weak statistical data from the U.S. was the reason for this; therefore, we expect no less important news from the United States today to close the trading day with some volatility. The retail sales in the United States disappointed players. It is worth mentioning that this does not support the American economy, which depends on consumers.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease to the level 1.3480. The next growth wave can start after that. The growth wave target is the level 1.3670 breakdown.



Pound (GBP)

The GBPUSD has quite moderately grown over trading Friday, whereupon made a sharp rise at the end of the day after the Central Bank of England Mark Carney statements who reported that interest rates in the UK can be increased even earlier than that expected by the market. Naturally such a statement has caused a sharp rise in a quotes pair, because the market has played out its expectations and perhaps at this stage it is not over.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.6860. The price is finding the resistance at 1.7000.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The uptrend movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues its growth wave. We not exclude 1.7025 level testing. We believe the price to continue decrease to the target 1.6655.



Yen (JPY)

On the eve the yen managed to preserve its achievements against the U.S. dollar and the euro as a result of the Central Bank of Japan statement.

The Bank of Japan again repeated its commitment to direct a steady increase in the size of its own program for the assets purchase, but kept the fund's assets total number without any changes at the level 70 trillion yen (almost $ 879 billion).

Also, the Central Bank of Japan expanded its bond buyback, starting with $ 40 trillion yen up to 45 trillion yen (almost $ 564 billion) although at the same time reduced the lending program, starting with the 30 trillion yen up to 25 trillion yen.

It should be noted that the Central Bank of Japan, using an anonymous vote, left the previously established interest rate without any changes in the range of 0-0.1 percent, and also reported on the outlook for moderate growth in the economy, even with the global environment uncertainty high degree.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downtrend movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair continues to sell to the level 102.23 (minimum). Next, we expect the continued decrease development. The next goal is the level around 100.50.



 

20.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week main event was the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting announcement. The regulator as it was expected earlier decided to taper the QE-3 incentive program further having cut $10 billion more from July 1.

The guidelines on the monetary-credit policy tighten remained unchanged - the federal funds rate growth will not happen before 2015. The only one of 16 leaders suggested that the Fed could raise the interest rates in the late 2014. The Reducing unemployment and the moderate inflation were positively received by the FOMC members in recent months.

The only thing that upset the "bulls" was the current year economic growth forecast decrease while the 2015 and 2016 forecasts remained unchanged. The Chairman Yellen said that "the Fed intends to keep rates near zero for a long time after the bond buying completion."

The pound fell after the Bank of England last meeting minute’s publication, but then leveled all the losses. The minutes signaled about the possible, but unlikely rates increase in 2014.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European currency rose slightly against the dollar. There was no news from the Eurozone still the information expectations from the Fed kept the single currency in a narrow range during the Asian and European sessions. The impulse to small-volume euro buying was given by the American Central Bank messages, which does not set the market on the dollar credibility. The news statements of the possible monetary policy easing extension for the Eurozone for the low inflation battle can reduce the interest to the single currency which continued to strengthen against the dollar.

The downward trend was stopped at the support level 1.3520. The continuous price consolidation at 1.3520 became a good signal for a trend change and a short-term growth to the strong resistance level 1.3610 region.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The U.S. dollar general correlation is aimed at lowering that gives additional reasons for the rising trend continuation.

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.3670 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK market's reaction after the Fed minutes publication was similar to the one at other basic tools - the pound slightly rose against the dollar after multidirectional movements. However, the increased volatility even in the European session happened because of the last BoE meeting published protocols.

The British pound broke the 1.7000 strong resistance the second time. If the first retest happened at the lower volumes, the second one occurred at the strong ones.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.7000 which has already become the support.

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.7050, 1.7100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The traders did not like the Fed data. The dollar returned under the pressure and recorded losses on the day. The sharp the U.S. "Treasuries" yield falling pushed investors to the dollar selling, which rose and returned all the previous session losses on the meeting outcome of the American Central Bank.

The bounce from the resistance level 102.30 was accompanied with the U.S. dollar decrease against the Japanese yen to 101.85 uptrend line. The sellers approached the trendline on the strong volumes which in the long term can lead to a breakthrough and a downward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 101.85 breakthrough down the way to the support 101.50 will be opened.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market worsening attitude to the dollar and the demand for the Swiss currency in the growing franc/yen will add pressure on the USD/CHF. The economic sentiment index fell in Switzerland according to ZEW-Credit Suisse to 4.8 in June from 7.4 in May had the negative impact on the market sentiment against the Swiss franc

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.900.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a strong and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target - 0.8920. When the price consolidates below the first target it will go to the level 0.8880.



 

23.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The other day we saw the U.S. currency weakening against its major rivals again, as the DXY dollar index basket finished the trading day at around 80.32. The EUR/USD in the first half of the day got stronger against the U.S. Federal Reserve decision to not change the monetary - credit policy in early 2015. At the moment the price reached the level 1.3643 and then the US positive static and Initial Jobless Claims publication investors closed long positions. The Initial Jobless Claims came out slightly better than the median forecast.

The British pound shows volatility- despite the negative macroeconomic statistics on the retail sales in May the GBP/USD has set a fresh high for the past 5 years. The Fed decision to keep the rates at low levels for a long time after the QE-3 program is over outweighed all the negative factors and during the day we could see the pound steady growth against the U.S. counterpart.

Despite the stock markets growth - the "bulls" did not hurry to open long positions in the USD/JPY. The demand for the pair returned only after the price drop to around 101.73 and we could observe it in the 102 figure recovery area. Certainly, The FOMC spoiled the dollar "sentiment", which wasn’t in a hurry to strengthen against the Japanese currency.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

At the beginning of Thursday's euro continued the growth against the U.S. dollar in the light of the latest news from the Fed which disappointed investors who expected a more firm attitude regarding the monetary policy. However, towards the end of the day, the single currency lost some positions in the light of the U.S. economy good statistics. The loss could be provoked by the ECB's statements about the Institute readiness together with other major Central Banks to start, if necessary, the assets purchase in order to avoid the low inflation long period.

The strong resistance level breakthrough 1.3600 led to the euro strengthening against the U.S. dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

It is likely to expect the downward trend formation in the longer term from the down channel resistance 1.3635.

The bounce from 1.3635 will allow sellers to return to the strong support level 1.3600. The break of this level will open the way down to 1.3520.



Pound  (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continued its upward march against the U.S. dollar and reached its highest level since 2008. The pound support continues to come from the view that the BoE will be the first Central Bank, which will raise rates. Statements by "Old Lady" representatives about the need to begin to tighten the policy were softer than expected, the difference between the Fed position and the BoE supports the sterling.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the resistance at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The nearest target of the correctional wave will is the support level 1.7000, or rising trendline 1.6980 - 1.6990. The retest is more likely to be accompanied by the consolidation. We expect the upward trend continuation.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency traded against the dollar in a sideways range and closed at opening price. At the beginning of the last session the yen strengthened amid the traders’ displeasure with the Fed position, and it fell by the session end, obviously because of the positive emotions caused by the U.S. economic statistics presented at the American session.

Throughout the last trading week the sellers failed to break below 101.75 support level above which it continues the trading in the real time.

The price went up to the level 101.75 at the lower volumes, but there is a breakthrough rising trend line 101.90.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The false support level 101.75 retest can correct the price upwards in the short term. The potential correction target is the mark 102.00



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank, as analysts predicted, kept interest rates unchanged and is "ready to buy unlimited amount of foreign currency" if necessary. Thus, the Central Bank has confirmed its intention to continue to support the low interest rates policy, as well as limit the Swiss franc growth

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.

The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The break below 0.8908 would target the pair to the support area 0.8882/96.



 

24.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD was moderately decreased after the long positions had been closed. The bearish sentiment prevailed amid the lack of the news. The Eurozone consumer confidence in June came out worse than the forecast was which only confirms the negative trends in the region economy.

This week we expect the pair to grow further as it has all conditions for it.

The pound is still supported by the BoE rate growth expectations. Traders believe it will happen much earlier than the Federal Reserve plans.

The BoJ said that the monetary authorities were ready to change the policy without hesitation if any risk appears. This statement is confirmed by the fact that despite all the positive comments about the prospects for economic growth - The Central Bank is still concerned about the sales tax increasing which took place on April 1. In the light of this the negative reports will support the USD/JPY in the future. The world's leading stock market closed the trading week with a steady growth in a price which supported the demand for the pair last Friday.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has strengthened against the greenback. The impulse for buying euro was received by the U.S. central bank after its meeting results that had upset the "bulls" with the lack of any inflexibility. However, euro was again under pressure, probably in addition to technical factors it can be explained by the lack of a confidence in the sustainable single currency after the ECB took a course on easing policy and regularly reminds the market that the incentive measures are real in the near future.


For the second time buyers were able to break above the strong resistance level of 1.3590. The first level breakthrough was stopped by the descending trend line 1.3640. After the second breakdown, the buyers may test the trend line again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The volumes are in the downgrade zone. Apparently, another approach to the trend line 1.3630 would lead to the price bounce downward. The bounce potential target will be performed by the support level of 1.3590, which is located in the uplink lower boundary.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British sterling slowed its growth against the dollar. There was not so much economic data, in fact, the only information published was about the UK public sector net borrowing in May, but the "cable" could not grow on this support as the borrowing was higher than last year and amounted to 13.3 billion British pounds against 8.7 billion previously, an increase of the budget deficit.

The resistance level of 1.7000 breakthrough was followed by a pull back. The rollback target is the support level 1.7000 which price approached on the decreasing volumes.

The rising trendline is located on the 1.7000 support level, which will serve as the further obstacle to the sellers.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The 1.7000 mark retest is more likely to lead to the short-term consolidation. Then we expect the price bounce up. The bounce potential target is the next resistance level of 1.7054. The break of this level will open the way up to 1.7100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

All the last week, the dollar/yen pair was traded under the U.S. government debt influence, as well as the messages from the Fed's decisions on monetary policy. This provoked multidirectional activity in a rather narrow sideways range. The BoJ head Kuroda confirmed the readiness without hesitation to correct the policy if the inflation returns to earlier levels.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a weak and non-confirmed sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

For the third time in the last three months, the buyers can approach the level of 102.65. If the approach occurs on the declining volume, it is likely to bounce down. The bounce potential target is the strong support level of 101.35.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc grows following the euro. The FOMC meeting was in focus. On its results the Fed buying volume decreased from $20 billion to $15 billion. According to the Fed's the economy has grown in recent months: the GDP growth forecast for 2015 is 3% to 3.2%; forecast for 2016 is between 2.5% to 3%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is under the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 0.8903. When the price consolidates above the first target it will go to the level 0.8855.



 

25.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week was inert for EUR/USD, it was marked by a low activity and trading in a range. In the Asian session, the dollar was sold slowly against all majors after the strong data from China publication that had supported the risk appetite.

Sales in the secondary housing market in the United States continued to rise in May, the second consecutive month, surpassing expectations, indicating that the acceleration of the recovery of the American housing market. The euro changed little after the market saw business activity in France and Germany which came weaker than expected. Activity in the manufacturing sector fell in France to 6-month low, while in the eurozone - to 7-month.

The British pound like the euro strengthened at first and then fell against the dollar. The pair finished the day on opening prices. There was not much news from the UK. We can only highlight the Bank of England lending report.

The British regulator noticed that investment companies are recoverying having increased the demand for loans. He believes their prospects are optimistic and expect a further increase in demand for loans. The market ignored the positive economic statistics in a public sector borrowing Britain.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro was growing against the dollar earlier this week. This growth was triggered by optimism publications from China. However, with the start of the European session, the interest to the single currency was returned and the pair returned to its original positions. In the end, the day was closed on opening prices, and the mistrust to the growth was caused by the low activity in the euro area, that showed a decrease in the leading countries of the EU and the unit as a whole.

ECB is preparing to quantitative easing. ECB official Nowotny said that the recovery in the euro area was weak, inflation would remain significantly below the target level until 2016 - and the ECB was interested in slowing down the strength of the euro.

EURUSD is correcting to a strong support level 1.3570.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If sellers are able to break through 1.3570 support down in the longer term the pair will approach to 1.3520, then we expect a retest of 1.3500.



Pound (GBP)

The pound rose slightly amid the Bank of England credit conditions survey which had shown an increase in loans demand in the UK companies the second consecutive quarter. The representative of the Bank of England, Miles said that the recovery in the UK had stabilized and the Bank of England should start raising interest rates in the coming months to maintain a strong economy.

From the resistance level 1.7055 the pair bounced back last week. The current decline is not supported by volumes, still it allowed sellers to break below the rising trend line of 1.7020.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If sellers do not break below the support, we expect a rebound to 1.7055. The break up 1.7055 will open the way to 1.7100.



Yen (JPY)

The yesterday’s trading ended with a growth, the cause of which probably was the performance of the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda, who said that inflation could stall the summer, but then resume its growth in the direction of 2.0%.

There is a symmetrical triangle at the 4-hour chart and the pair is being traded in it. Its boundaries are downward trend line 102.05 and the lower boundary is a line 101.85 from which there is a short-term bounce upward.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 102.05 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25, further then towards 102.70.



Franc (CHF)

The U.S. currency continued to weaken waiting the data that can show the goods orders index weakening in a long-term and the slowdown in sales in the U.S primary housing market. According to a statement released the other day SNB Swiss franc was overvalued in May by 12%. The assessment was made against a basket of currencies of 40 trading partners. In April figure was 12.5% overvalued.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 0.8920 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go down to 0.8880.



 

26.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

EUR/USD was trading in a flat again despite the negative macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. The IFO business climate release in Germany in June came out worse than median forecasts showing a decline for the second month in a row which is quite a wake-up call for the leading economy in the Eurozone. After that the euro/dollar fell but then managed to regain lost ground. The macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. market presented a pleasant surprise - housing sales in the primary market in May totaled a record 18.6% which shows the restoration of the property market and the consumer confidence increase. The dollar rates have responded to this positive report with a growth.

The GBP/USD remained under pressure after the BoE’s leaders’ inflation speech in the Parliament. The regulator decided to slow down this time and gave a restrained assessment of the prospects for an economic growth in the future after the first rate growth. Investors took it negatively and began to sell the British currency.

The USD/JPY left the side range. The USA market did not please the market with positive consumer confidence statistics and housing sales in the primary market which confirmed a steady upward trend in the U.S. economy. In the light of this there was a quotation increase on the world's leading stock markets, the U.S. S&P500 once again set a new historical high.

However, at the trading day closing investors decided to take profits on the stock markets, whereby observed sell risky assets.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

Euro showed mixed trading against "greenback". German Ifo Institute published unpleasant data for the euro - in June confidence in the German business community weakened more than everyone expected. During June, the sentiment index was 109.7 points, according the forecast we expected a decline to 110.2 from 110.4 level in May. Taking into the consideration this weak newsflow we believe the pair will not change the positions and will continue trading in a range.


The price is finding the first support at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3570 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3670, the next one is at 1.3710.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed upwards. The cloud is directed upward as well. The upward movement will be continued until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. We do not exclude the falls to 1.3610.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

There pound was very vulnerable the other day. The currency fell against the dollar and the euro after Mark Carney mentioned his plans about the bank policy. Speaking in parliament, the regulator expressed his concerns about the slow growth of wages in Britain, saying that perhaps it would affect the plans of the Central Bank regarding interest rates.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6940, the next one is at 1.6860. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1. 7040.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is directed upwards.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

The pair direction is not certain. The pair is near the cloud boundary so we can expect the bounce up. If the GBP/USD enters the cloud the buy signal will be weakened and the price might go down to 1.6940.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen showed mixed trading the first part of the yesterday having fallen at the end of the day. When the market saw U.S. positive economic reports the pair fell sharply having fixed the yen buying. It is unlikely that this instrument will change the activity. We expect the consolidation to be continued.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen are horizontal, both lines are directed down.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 101.60 testing soon.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

Once data from the United States demonstrated that CPI and housing sales grew the USA prospects for an economy recovery improved.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in the negative territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair will go to 0.8880 soon.



 

27.06.2014

Fundamental analysis

The U.S. currency lost some ground against its major rivals, the dollar index DXY basket finished trading at around 80.19. U.S. Department of Commerce has reported a significant decline in orders for durable goods in May and it's all happening on rising consumer confidence. The Final U.S. GDP for the 1st quarter struck another blow to dollar - an indicator went much worse than the forecast was, showing a decline to the level of - 2.9% qoq. Immediately after the publication the euro/dollar showed bullish sentiment.

The GBP/USD has been under the pressure the whole week. Investors close long positions after the significant strengthening of the British currency. The internal conditions also did not contribute to the "bullish" sentiment - the retail sales release according to the Confederation of British industrialists showed in June the greatest reduction in the last 6 months, which is the first alarm signal.

USD/JPY is still trading in a "sideways" in the absence of a strong news background prefers to copy the dynamics of trading in the stock markets of Japan and the United States. The sharp slowdown in orders for durable goods in the U.S. in May furthered the dollar weakening.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has been the most stable in yesterday's session, as was able to keep most of conquests against the dollar, which has gained the support from the weak U.S. economy news. The same Eurozone economy data did not hurt the euro, while this news status is the same. We do not expect important news from the Eurozone. Perhaps we can get something from the started the EU summit.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520 . The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3665. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 1.3720.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The effect from the statements made by M. Carney that weak wage growth in the UK can move to tighten monetary policy at a remote period, continues to press the pound. The growth is moderate. To return its loss the "cable" could after the weak U.S. economy data release.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6940. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7040, the next one is at 1.7080.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

If buyers cannot break and consolidate above 1.7000 the second time, the downward trend will be continued.

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.6940, 1.6900 - 1.6895



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen also fell after the weak U.S. economy release in the 1st quarter. However, technical factors showed a strong support that had allowed the price to return almost to their original positions. The political moment - Prime Minister Abe performance that was dedicated to the reform and the economic recovery, has not affected the market at all.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 101.95 - 101.90

The approach to this line may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 101.50



Franc (CHF)

The dollar weakened across the board after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the first three months of this year compared with the consensus forecast decline of 1.7%.

Initially it was reported that in the first quarter U.S. GDP increased by 0.1%, but the data were subsequently revised to a decrease of 1.0%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is under the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, that’s a weak and confirmed sell signal.
The downward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.8903. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8855.



 

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Thank you so much for your published forecasts! I always used this  information while trading, but now I'm looking for some alternative good sources to have ability to compare. Could you please give me a link to the original page with upper analysis?

Why you stopped sharing analysis? May ask you about USD/JPY. What do you think will it go further up next week or should we expect changing of the trend?