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December 3. Non-farm Payrolls disappointed the markets

According to the monthly Non-farm Payrolls report, the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector increased by only 210 thousand in November after an increase of 546 thousand in the previous month. This indicator turned out to be significantly lower than analysts' expectations (573 thousand).

At the same time, despite the large shortage of personnel, the unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%. At the same time, the labor force participation rate increased over the month to 61.8%, which is the highest since March 2020.

The Labor Department noted that the U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, before the threat of a new Covid strain roiled markets and raised concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the winter.

The sectors that showed the largest increase in November include professional and business services (90 thousand), transport and warehousing (50 thousand), as well as construction (31 thousand). Retail trade decreased by 20 thousand employees, even though the holiday shopping season is approaching.

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December 17. Producer prices in Germany in November rose to the highest in 70 years

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis), producer prices (PPI index) in Germany in November increased sharply by 19.2% compared to the same month last year. This growth was the highest since November 1951.

It is worth noting that analysts predicted an even more significant increase in the PPI index in November – by 19.9%.

The pace of price growth has accelerated for the eleventh month in a row, and the last five months the rise exceeds 10%. In particular, energy prices jumped by 49.4% in November: natural gas rose by 83.4%, electricity by 48%. The cost of intermediate products increased by 19.1%, consumer durable goods – by 3.7%, means of production – by 3.6%.

Experts note that such an increase in the PPI index indicates a gloomy outlook for the economy during the Christmas season, as the German industrial sector continues to struggle with disruptions in supply chains and the threat posed by a new strain of omicron.

December 16. The Bank of England unexpectedly raised the interest rate

Following the results of the December meeting, the Bank of England presented an unexpected surprise to the markets, sharply raising the base interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%. The decision was made by a majority vote.

In addition, the regulator unanimously decided to leave the volume of the asset repurchase program at the level of 895 billion pounds, including the repurchase of government bonds in the amount of 875 billion pounds.

Analysts' forecasts did not suggest such actions by the central bank. The last time the British regulator changed the rate in 2018 – then it rose to 0.75%. After that, it either remained at the same level or decreased.

Representatives of the Bank of England said that such a decision was due to the acceleration of inflation to a ten-year high. In November, consumer prices increased by 5.1% compared to the same indicator in 2020. At the same time, the target level of the central bank is in the region of 2%.

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December 20. The Turkish Lira has updated the anti-record again

On Monday, the Turkish lira exchange rate collapsed again, updating another anti-record. The quote of the USD/TRY pair is 18.41 lira per dollar. During the day, the currency lost about 10%.

Back in January 2021, the lira was trading at the rate of 7.4 lira per dollar. During the year, the currency has fallen in price by more than 60%, and the lira has lost more than 40% of its value over the past month.

The driver of the weakening of the lira was another reduction in the interest rate by the central bank of Turkey. On Thursday, the Central Bank decided to reduce the discount rate from 15% to 14%. The regulator also announced new direct currency interventions.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is in favor of reducing the discount rate, arguing that this will lead to lower inflation. However, many do not agree with Erdogan's policy. As a result, since July 2019, the president has already changed the head of the central bank three times and the finance minister twice since November 2021.

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December 21. Tesla leaves the list of «trillion companies»

Tesla Inc. rose 35% in October after a deal was struck with car rental company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. This collaboration signaled a wider spread of electric cars, which caused an increase in the value of securities, but after this rally gradually began to subside until it completely evaporated.

Immediately after ordering Hertz for 100,000 cars, Tesla's shares rose so that the company's valuation significantly exceeded the coveted $1 trillion mark. However, Tesla shares fell 3.5% yesterday to close at $ 899.94. That is, even below the level at which they closed before the announcement on October 25 of the Hertz deal worth $ 4.2 billion.

Analysts say that the decline in the value of shares was due to the fact that Elon Musk began to get rid of part of his stake in the company. Tesla's market cap is now around $904 billion.

Further pressure on prices came from a severe downturn in the renewable energy sector, including the production of solar panels and electric vehicles. The market decline came after Senator Joe Manchin said he would not support President Joe Biden's $2 trillion spending plan.

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December 22. Oil prices rose sharply amid the energy crisis in Europe

Yesterday, oil prices showed a steady increase against the background of the energy crisis in Europe: the cost of gas in the region overcame another historical maximum at $2,187 per thousand cubic meters. And in such conditions, the demand for petroleum products will inevitably grow.

On Wednesday morning, Brent oil quotes settled at $73.91 per barrel. Yesterday's daily high was marked at $74.57. North American WTI crude oil rose to $71.78 per barrel.

Additional support for the oil market was provided by yesterday's data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which crude oil reserves in the United States decreased by 3.67 million barrels. Today, we should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy, and if official data also confirm a reduction in raw materials stocks – this will be the fourth week of decline in a row.

Analysts and market participants also continue to monitor the situation with the emergence of a new omicron strain of coronavirus. Experts fear that the new strain carries even greater risks for global oil demand than its predecessors. «Any threat of falling demand will contribute to investors avoiding risks and outflow of funds from energy markets,» experts say.

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December 23. Oil is declining after yesterday's jump

Last night, after the release of statistics from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country, Brent quotes jumped sharply to the level of $75.71 per barrel. Today, the price is declining, approaching the $75.00 mark. The price of WTI crude oil showed a decrease from $73.20 to $72.50 per barrel.

According to official weekly data on the energy market in the United States, stocks of raw materials decreased by 4.7 million barrels, while analysts predicted a smaller reduction – by only 2.7 million barrels. Oil reserves in the States have been declining for the fourth week in a row. At the same time, gasoline reserves increased by 5.53 million barrels, distillates – by 396 thousand barrels.

Additional support for the market is provided by various news that helps to reduce nervousness about the omicron strain, as well as the release of good statistics on the United States. The US GDP in the final assessment and the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board came out better than expected.

Quotes are also supported by the news about the suspension of production at several fields in Libya, as a result of which the country lost more than 300 thousand b/d of production.

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December 27. Great Britain faces a serious energy crisis

Analysts do not exclude that the UK will face a worsening economic situation due to gas prices, similar to what happened during the 2008 financial crisis.

Stephen Fitzpatrick, chief executive of OVO Energy, the nation's second-largest energy supplier, compared the current state of affairs to the period between the collapse of the Northern Rock bank and the collapse of Lehman Brothers a year later.

The current crisis is not expected to end soon. Moreover, Fitzpatrick accused the British authorities of being too slow in finding suitable solutions to break the impasse.

The UK government itself said it was in constant contact with representatives of the energy industry, and promised to protect consumers from rising prices.

Among the main causes of the energy crisis in Europe are unfavorable weather, inefficient operation of wind farms this year and insufficient gas reserves in underground storage on the continent. Britain also believes that Russia was the culprit in the crisis in Europe, but Moscow has denied the allegations. He pointed out that the European Commission itself insisted on the market pricing of the energy carrier, which ultimately led to the crisis.

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December 29. Mexico will stop exporting oil

Mexico has decided to process almost all the oil produced in the country on its own. In 2023-2024, the Dos Bocas oil refinery and the Kangrejera petrochemical complex will be launched, said Octavio Oropesa, head of the Mexican oil and gas state company Pemex.

It follows from this that Mexico will almost 100% abandon oil exports. Earlier, the country's president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has already stated that the government intends to stop exports before the expiration of Obrador's term in 2024. By doing this, the authorities intend to preserve hydrocarbon reserves for future generations.

Pemex's loss amounted to $4 billion in January-September. The company increased oil production to 1.73 million barrels per day, and exports of «black gold» increased by 58% to $25.2 billion.

Recall that back in April 2020, the OPEC+ countries agreed to reduce production by 10 million b/d, but Mexico refused to reduce production by 400 thousand b/d, putting the deal on the verge of collapse. The situation was saved by the United States, which agreed to reduce its quota by 400 thousand b/d. Experts note that if Mexico withdraws from the world oil market, it will facilitate the procedure for concluding agreements within the framework of OPEC+. At the same time, Mexico's share in the world market may be taken by Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

December 28. Gold has risen to a maximum of the last five weeks

Gold prices on Tuesday rose to the highest level in five weeks, reaching $1,819.35 per ounce. The current quote of the precious metal is $1817.75. The last time such values were recorded was in mid-November.

Prices were supported by the weakening of the dollar, since strong statistical data from the United States and high inflation did not lead to a jump in the exchange rate of the US currency and the yield of government bonds. The US economy in the third quarter grew by 2.3% in terms of annual rates, the estimate of the indicator was increased from the previous 2.1%. And the PCE Core index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, jumped 4.7% in November compared to the same month last year, the fastest pace in more than 30 years.

This week, gold may well continue to rise, but the growth will be short-lived. Analysts note that gold's attempts to demonstrate a significant recovery are still inconclusive, and traders cut long positions at the first signs of trouble.

As for the other metals, the picture is as follows: silver rose 0.2% to $23.08 per ounce, platinum rose 0.3% to $973, and palladium fell 0.7% to $1957.68, retreating from the more than monthly peak reached in the previous session.

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January 4. Prospects of the precious metals market

In 2021, everything except precious metals rose in price: oil jumped in price by 55%, copper increased by 25% over the year, and inflation in the United States reached a 40-year high of 6.8%. At the same time, gold not only did not grow, but also lost about 4% in price over the year.

In fact, there is quite a logical explanation for this. The gold market is under pressure from the tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Market participants fear that the beginning of a cycle of interest rate increases will inevitably play against gold. Which leads to the fact that the market begins to look for more profitable instruments.

Many investment banks have already submitted their forecasts for 2022. In particular, JPMorgan expects an average gold price of $1,630 per ounce in 2022. Deutsche Bank is more conservative and expects $1,750 at the end of the year. The current price of an ounce of precious metal is $1808.

However, there are also those who hold more positive views on the dynamics of gold, expecting its value in the new year at the level of $ 2000-2100 per ounce. Investors believe that the «fashion» for risky assets will not always be relevant, so when gold becomes a sought-after asset again, its value can easily grow by 15-20%. Especially after a bad year.

There are many reasons that can change the vector of the direction of gold: there is an out-of-control inflation, new Covid strains and restrictions, as well as geopolitics and general tension in the world.

January 3. What awaits the oil market in the new year

During the first trading day of the new year, the oil market demonstrates a multidirectional movement, first continuing the decline that began at the end of the past year, and then sharply jumping up. The current Brent quote is $78, WTI oil is trading at $75.38 per barrel.

The pressure on prices is exerted by the continuing concern of the market about the fall in demand due to the new strain of the omicron coronavirus. At the same time, analysts note that due to mass vaccination in 2021, the threat of Covid in the world has significantly weakened, and by the end of 2021, Brent has grown by 34%, and WTI – by 38%. The growth was mainly due to the gradual lifting of restrictions on air travel and tourism and, accordingly, the growing demand for oil.

Predicting the movement of the oil market in 2022, analysts note that the periodic appearance of new strains of coronavirus may cause the resumption of lockdowns and restrictions in certain countries and sectors of the economy. Therefore, the oil market situation in the new year will not be too stable, and the market is waiting for sharp price fluctuations.

Another risk for the oil market in 2022 may be an increase in oil production in the United States. According to the IEA forecast, the supply of oil will also increase sharply in Canada and Brazil, and this will mean that there will be an excess supply of oil in the market of 2 million b/d, of which 1.1 million b/d will be for oil production in the United States.

Tomorrow, January 4, a regular meeting of the ministers of the OPEC+ member countries will be held, at which the parameters of the implementation of the current agreement on increasing oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day will be discussed, and quotas for January will also be set. Most likely, they will remain unchanged – the same as in December 2021. However, if the threat of new, more dangerous Covid strains persists, OPEC+ may temporarily suspend production increases due to uncertainty about future oil demand.

For 2022, we predict that the price of Brent oil will move on average in the range of $65-$90 per barrel, and during the first quarter of 2022 – in the range of $69-79 per barrel.

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January 5. Europe may be left without gas in two months

Experts note that against the background of the energy transition, gas reserves in the EU turned out to be insufficient, which could lead to the fact that by the end of winter, the level of reserves in storage facilities could fall to a historic low of 15%.

Today, Europe is in the midst of the so-called energy transition – countries are closing coal-fired power plants, thereby increasing dependence on renewable energy sources. And although wind and solar energy is much cleaner, these sources are fickle: last year, electricity generation in Europe fell sharply. And since there are still two cold winter months ahead, gas in European countries may simply run out.

Storage facilities in Europe are 56% full, which is 15 percentage points lower than the average for ten years. According to analysts, if Russia does not increase gas supplies, by the end of March, the level of reserves in Europe will drop to 15%, which could be the lowest in history. Experts note that without additional supplies of Russian gas via the Nord Stream-2, 2022 will be another unstable period for European prices for blue fuel.

Last year, exchange prices for gas in Europe broke several records. On December 21, the cost of fuel for the first time exceeded $2 thousand for 1 cubic meter . This was caused by a decrease in pumping through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, information about the launch of Nord Stream 2 no earlier than the second half of 2022, as well as news about a possible cooling in Europe.

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January 10. Wall Street futures decline in anticipation of further inflation in the US

Monday began with a decline in futures on major US stock indexes. Pressure on the market is exerted by the expectations of statistics, which should confirm the continued acceleration of consumer price growth in the United States.

In particular, futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) declined by 0.02% to 36102 points, futures for the S&P 500 broad market index – by 0.11% to 4662.75 points, and the NASDAQ high–tech index – by 0.29% to 15536 points.

Consumer price statistics in the United States will be published on Wednesday. Analysts suggest that last year's inflation was 7%, which will be the highest since 1982. A month earlier, annual inflation in the United States reached 6.8%.

Experts note that the stronger-than-expected growth in average wages in the country reinforced the inflation expectations of investors. If the forecasts turn out to be correct, the US Federal Reserve will have to start raising the discount rate earlier than planned.

However, the tightening of monetary policy is unfavorable for nominal stock prices. High-tech companies, whose value depends more on future profits (which, in turn, is closely related to «cheap» money in the economy), may suffer the most. Therefore, NASDAQ futures are getting cheaper more significantly than other indices.

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January 11. Gold rises in anticipation of Powell's comments

The price of gold on Tuesday is rising for the third session in a row amid a decline in the dollar and treasury yields ahead of a speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. Market participants are confident that the regulator will start raising interest rates very soon, which puts pressure on the US currency exchange rate.

The spot price of gold rose today to $1.810 per troy ounce, subsequently declining to $1.805.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds retreated from a near two-year high, and the dollar declined against its main competitors.

Jerome Powell promised to prevent further acceleration of already high inflation. And it is the inflationary rhetoric of the policy that will be the central topic of the hearings in the banking committee devoted to the consideration of Powell's candidacy for a second term at the head of the Fed.

In addition to Powell's speech, markets are waiting for tomorrow's data on consumer prices in the United States: the index is expected to have grown in December by 5.4% year-on-year compared to November's 4.9%.

Palladium has risen in price today to $1,937.78 per ounce, silver – $22,710 per ounce, and platinum – up to $950,00.

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January 12. The first bitcoin transaction is 13 years old

Exactly 13 years ago, on January 12, 2009, the creator of bitcoin under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto made the first transaction in cryptocurrency, sending 10 BTC to cryptographer Hal Finney. Hal Finney played a crucial role in the history of bitcoin, and according to one version, he was the creator of the cryptocurrency. Since then, 700 billion transactions have been made.

The first BTC transaction was confirmed in block #170. The cost of the cryptocurrency received by Finney was almost zero. According to him, the cryptographer extracted several blocks on his own personal computer. Since then, cryptocurrency mining has become an industry in which specialized high-performance devices are used, and the hashrate of the network exceeds 170 EH/s.

However, currently, the solo mining of cryptocurrencies continues. Yesterday, an unknown miner with an equipment capacity of 126 TH/s included block #718124 in the blockchain. Experts note that the probability of this event was less than 0.0001%. The anonymous miner received a reward of 6.25 BTC. As you know, in 2009, 50 BTC was charged for the extracted block, but this figure is halved approximately every four years.

In December 2021, miners mined 90% of bitcoin. Analysts note that the cryptocurrency is expected to reach the issue limit of 21 million coins in 2140.

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13.01. Oil is growing after the publication of reserves statistics

On Thursday, the price of oil continues to rise, despite the appearance of quite alarming signals. The current Brent quote is $84.75, North American WTI oil is trading near $82.50 per barrel.

Yesterday, industry statistics from the US Department of Energy were presented, and the data came out somewhat ambiguous. In particular, according to the weekly report, oil reserves in the United States decreased by 4.6 million barrels, which turned out to be better than forecasts. Production decreased by 100 thousand b/d to 11.7 million b/d.

At the same time, gasoline stocks jumped by 8 million barrels at once, exceeding the average level for 3 years. Moreover, the level of oil refining remained stable, and the loading of the refinery even decreased slightly, from 89.8% to 88.4%. This may mean that the growth of gasoline stocks is associated with the weakness of demand. If this turns out to be a temporary phenomenon, then oil prices will remain high. Otherwise, alarm signals may begin to put pressure on oil prices.

Brent and WTI are supported by the general weakness of the US dollar after the release of inflation data. The growth of consumer prices in the country reached 7% (in November, inflation was 6.8%), which was the highest since 1982. Against this background, the DXY dollar index showed an impressive drop, updating two-month lows.

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January 17. Oil jumped to a three-year high

The price of Brent crude oil on Monday jumped sharply to a three-year high at $86.69 per barrel. The cost of a barrel of North American WTI oil has risen to $84.09 (the maximum since November 10, 2021).

The main support for the oil market is provided by expectations that supply will remain limited against the background of curbing production by major producers, and global demand will not suffer from a wave of infections with the Omicron coronavirus strain.

Analysts note that bullish sentiment persists, as OPEC+ does not provide sufficient supply to meet high global demand. And if investment funds increase the share of crude oil, prices may reach 2014 highs.

Experts are also confident that a summer surge in demand is inevitable ahead, especially in Europe and the United States, which may be greater than last year (if the hopes that Omicron will finally turn the Covid-19 pandemic into an epidemic are justified).

However, during the day, Brent quotes declined slightly, to the level of $85.60 per barrel, amid an increase in production in Libya. According to the National Oil Corporation of the country, the total volume of oil production has returned to the level of 1.2 million barrels per day. Recall that last week production in Libya was about 900 thousand barrels per day due to the blockade of western fields.

January 14. European stock exchanges decline on Friday

According to Friday's trading data, Europe's main stock indexes are declining after the release of data on the first monthly trade deficit in the eurozone in almost eight years. A similar indicator in the UK, which is now not part of the euro area, is fixed at almost zero.

The German DAX index declined during the day to 15,833.73 points, the French CAC 40 – to 7,119.01 points, the British FTSE 100 – to 7,523.02 points.

European macro statistics exerted pressure on the stock market. Thus, the deficit of the foreign trade balance of the eurozone countries in November amounted to 1.5 billion euros after a surplus of 3.6 billion in October. At the same time, analysts expected a surplus of 7.6 billion euros. The European statistical Agency Eurostat also noted that the trade deficit was recorded for the first time in a month since January 2014.

It is also worth noting that the stock markets of Europe repeat the dynamics of the American and Asian ones, which closed mainly in the red (due to news about the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in these countries).

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January 20. Cryptocurrencies are declining on expectations of a tightening of the Fed's policy

Since the beginning of the new year, the cryptocurrency market has been showing steady weakening amid expectations that the US Federal Reserve System will soon begin to tighten monetary policy.

The bitcoin exchange rate has decreased by 9.3% since the beginning of the year, and the Ether exchange rate, the second largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin, by 14.5%. The current BTC quote is $43,308.60, and the Ether quote is $3,253.92.

The Fed is expected to raise the base interest rate in March and raise it at least three times in 2022. Some experts suggest that the rate increase in March may amount to more than 25 basis points. However, these are only assumptions, but market participants are waiting for «hawkish» comments from the Central Bank's leaders at the Fed meeting on January 25-26.

At the same time, the dynamics of bitcoin is likely to remain volatile as a result of «hawkish» rhetoric, as analysts note.

The negative dynamics of cryptocurrencies also affected the shares of companies related to the industry. For example, the price of Coinbase Global Inc. securities has dropped by 13% since the beginning of the year, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. – by 24.4%, Riot Blockchain Inc. – by 21.7%.

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January 24. Bitcoin skids to a 6-month low

During Monday's trading session, the bitcoin exchange rate continued the fall, which began at the end of last week. The current quote of the cryptocurrency is $33.483. The last time such price values were recorded a half year ago, in July 2021.

Since the beginning of the week, bitcoin has lost about 9%. Analysts say the main reason for the fall is the decline in the value of shares of the largest technology companies. In particular, the head of Tesla, Elon Musk, lost $25.1 billion, the head of Meta (former Facebook), Mark Zuckerberg, became poorer by $ 10.4 billion, and Changping Zhao, the owner of the Binance cryptocurrency exchange, lost $17.7 billion.

In turn, the reason for the decline in the securities of technology giants was the widespread spread of the omicron strain, as well as the prospect of lower interest rates in the United States and the growth of instability in the world. At the same time, the main pressure on the crypto market was caused by fears of a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine – recently it became known that the United States and Great Britain began to withdraw diplomatic representatives from Ukraine.

Many analysts predict a further decline in the value of the most popular cryptocurrency – up to $ 20 thousand.

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January 25. Nikkei falls to 5-month low

The Japanese Nikkei stock index closed near a five-month low on Tuesday due to investor caution amid the situation on the border with Ukraine, the expansion of inflation risks and concerns about a faster-than-expected increase in the US Federal Reserve interest rate.

The current index value is 27.131.34 points, which was the lowest since August 20. During the trading session, the Nikkei declined to 26.890.94 – the lowest since December 29.

The broader Topix index dropped to 1.862.62. The Mothers Index of startups has fallen to its lowest level since April 2020.

Analysts note that the main driver of the downward dynamics of the index was the decline in the value of shares in the Japanese technology sector. In particular, the securities of the investor in startups SoftBank Group fell by 5.34%, shares of the manufacturer of equipment for creating chips Tokyo Electron – by 2.69%. NIDEC lost 4.44%.

The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve also has an important impact on the index. A two-day meeting of the US regulator starts today, and investors assume that there is a small chance that the central bank will unexpectedly announce a rate hike from January.

Additional pressure on the Nikkei is also exerted by geopolitical tensions related to the buildup of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. Yesterday it became known that NATO is putting its troops on alert and strengthening its positions in Eastern Europe with additional ships and fighters.

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January 26. The US will release another 13.4 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves

The US Department of Energy has announced plans to release an additional 13.4 million barrels of oil from the country's strategic reserves.

The release of reserves will be distributed among seven companies: Shell will buy 4.2 million barrels, Trafigura – 3 million, Phillips 66 Company – 2.3 million, Macquarie Commodities Trading – 2 million, Chevron – 0.885 million, ExxonMobil – 0.515 million and BP Products North America – 0.5 million barrels.

Recall that US President Joe Biden in November 2021 announced the release of 50 million barrels of oil from reserves due to high oil prices in the world and gasoline in the States themselves. The first deliveries were made in December, and the rest will be carried out gradually until April. The return of reserves to the strategic reserve is planned for 2022-2024.

Today, oil quotes are showing growth again. The current Brent quote is $88.00 per barrel. Raw materials are getting more expensive after the release of yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which stocks decreased by 872 thousand barrels after rising by 1.4 million barrels a week earlier.

Today, we should pay attention to similar statistics from the US Department of Energy. Experts expect that oil reserves in the country decreased by 2.1 million barrels last week, gasoline reserves increased by 2.2 million barrels, and distillate reserves decreased by 1.6 million barrels.

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January 27. The US economy in 2021 showed the highest growth rate since Reagan

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, the country's gross domestic product increased by 5.7% for the whole of 2021 after falling by 3.4% in 2020. Such economic growth has become the most impressive in the last almost 40 years, since the presidency of Ronald Reagan.

In the last quarter of 2021, US GDP increased by 6.9% on an annualized basis, which exceeded analysts' expectations of 5.5% growth.

In 2020, the American economy shrank for the first time since 2009 (by 3.4%), and the reason for this was the global coronavirus pandemic. However, by the middle of 2021, the economy had recovered and returned to the pre-pandemic level.

Analysts note that high economic growth in the United States is accompanied by high inflation – it is also at multi-year highs. In particular, in 2021, inflation accelerated to 7%, which was the largest indicator since 1982.

In response, the US Federal Reserve announced that it was curtailing anti-crisis measures, and in March it could raise the base interest rate for the first time in four years. Representatives of the regulator note that a tougher monetary policy is able to restrain price growth significantly exceeding the target level of 2%.

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February 1. Gold is rising on Tuesday morning on political tensions

The value of gold is steadily growing on the first day of February. The current quote of the precious metal is $1.803 per ounce. Analysts call the main reason for the growth of the asset the strengthening of foreign policy tensions in the international arena caused by the contradictions around Russia and Ukraine.

And since gold is a «safe haven asset», increased tension successfully supports demand for it, somewhat leveling the recent weakening from the $1.850 level due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System. Traditionally, gold acts as a resource that investors prefer to acquire in the event of difficult and questionable situations.

The markets are also focused on the meetings of the European and British central banks on Thursday. If both regulators agree to increase interest rates, the demand for national currencies will grow, and for the precious metal will decrease.

Analysts also presented a report on the global demand for gold by the end of 2021. According to statistics, demand reached the level of 4,021 tons, which was facilitated by a 50% growth in the fourth quarter. In annual comparison, the indicator increased by 10%. It is noted that such indicators are caused by the recovery of the jewelry and technology sectors of the industry, as well as active purchases of gold from central banks.

January 31. Oil remains near highs at the beginning of a new trading week

On Monday, oil prices remained stable at $89 per barrel after jumping to seven-year highs last week.

The current Brent quote is $88.90, North American WTI oil is trading near $87.30 per barrel.

Both brands of oil rose in price for the sixth week in a row. Since the beginning of the year, their cost has risen by about 16%, while the growth rate at the end of the month may be the highest since February 2021.

The main support for commodity assets is provided by concern due to problems with oil supplies, coupled with continuing geopolitical risks. An additional growth factor was a sharp cold snap in the United States, which increases the demand for fuel.

This week, on February 2, an important event for the oil market will take place – a meeting of OPEC+ ministers. Market participants expect that the alliance countries will decide to continue to increase their total production by the planned 400 thousand barrels per day on a monthly basis.

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February 2. OPEC+ countries will increase oil production in March by 400 thousand barrels per day

A meeting of OPEC+ ministers was held today, at which it was decided to jointly increase oil production in March 2022 by 400 thousand barrels per day. Russia's quota in the March increase remains the same – 109 thousand barrels per day.

The alliance's ministerial meeting was a record short one and the decision to maintain the terms of the deal was made in half an hour. The next OPEC+ meeting, where the alliance's policy for April will be discussed, will be held on March 2.

After the announcement of the results, the price of Brent oil jumped to around $90.50 per barrel, declining some time later to $89.30. WTI crude oil is trading near $88.10 per barrel. Since the beginning of the year, oil quotes have increased by more than 17%.

The OPEC+ decision not to increase the production recovery rate above the planned rate may contribute to a further rise in the price of hydrocarbons

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February 3. The Bank of England may raise the key rate for the second time in a row

A regular meeting of the Bank of England will be held today, at which, as expected, the regulator may raise the key rate for the second time in a row – from the current 0.25% to 0.5%, against the background of record inflation in the UK for 30 years. The last time the British Central Bank raised rates at two meetings in a row was in 2004.

It is worth noting that consumer prices in the UK in December 2021 jumped by 5.4% compared to the same month of the previous year, showing record growth rates since March 1992.

The British regulator raised the rate in December last year to 0.25%. At the same time, the Bank of England became the first among the world's central banks to take such a step, noting that some moderate tightening of monetary policy will be necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target.

In addition, in December, the Central Bank decided to leave unchanged the volume of the asset repurchase program at the level of 895 billion pounds, including the repurchase of government bonds in the amount of 875 billion pounds. However, it is possible that today the Bank of England will stop all reinvestments in the framework of asset purchases.

According to experts, the main message of the British regulator will be that a moderate tightening of monetary policy is necessary to maintain the stability of the economy. They also expect that inflation may peak at 6.5% and will slow down for a longer time than previously expected, remaining above the 2% target for two years.

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February 7. Oil market declines after reaching multi-year highs

Brent oil started today with an increase to the level of $93.99 per barrel, continuing to update multi-year highs. The last time the price of oil reached the area of $94 in 2014. The price of North American WTI oil is located near $92.70.

Analysts note that the main support for quotes is provided by expectations of maintaining a limited supply against the backdrop of recovering demand.

An additional growth factor is the continuing concern due to geopolitical risks, as well as doubts about OPEC's ability to supply in sufficient volume and the cooling in the United States. Experts believe that the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe may lead to an increase in the price of oil to the region of $ 120 per barrel.

However, following the highs, a technical correction is possible. That's what we see on the charts of the movement of oil quotes today. After the morning growth to the level of $94 per barrel, prices fell to $91.20. However, the reason may lie not only in the correction. Today it became known that negotiations between the United States and Iran on the resumption of the nuclear deal are probably close to completion, which will lead to an increase in the level of oil supply.

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February 8. Gold is getting cheaper on the expectation of a faster Fed rate hike

On Tuesday, the price of gold was declining as the US dollar rose in anticipation of inflation statistics. Investors predict that the Federal Reserve will signal an aggressive tightening of monetary policy and multiple interest rate hikes this year.

The spot price of precious metals in the morning declined to $1816 per ounce, recovering during the day to $1820.

Inflation data in the United States will be published on Thursday. The consumer price index for January is expected to show an annual growth of 7.3%, which would be the highest jump since 1982. And as experts note, high inflation may force the Fed to tighten policy faster, which will lead to an increase in the opportunity costs of owning non-profitable gold.

Additional support for gold is provided by the ongoing tensions around Russia and Ukraine, as the precious metal is used as a safe haven asset.

As for the other metals, palladium fell today to $2200, silver declined to $22,777, and platinum fell to $1004.25 per troy ounce.

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February 10. Oil reserves in the United States unexpectedly fell, production increased

According to the weekly report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves for the week ended February 4 unexpectedly decreased by 4.8 million barrels to 410.4 million barrels. Analysts, on the contrary, expected an increase of 400 thousand barrels.

At the same time, the strategic reserve of oil in the country decreased by 1.4 million barrels to 587.5 million barrels. And oil reserves at the country's largest terminal in Cushing decreased during the reporting period: from 30.5 million barrels to 27.7 million.

In addition, the report indicated a decrease in gasoline inventories by 1.6 million barrels to 248.4 million. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.6 million barrels. Distillate stocks decreased by 0.9 million barrels to 121.8 million barrels. A decrease of 1.7 million barrels was predicted.

Oil production

The Ministry also shared statistics on oil production in the United States. Its indicators increased by 100 thousand barrels per day to the level of the previous week – up to 11.6 million barrels.

On average, over the past four weeks, production in the United States amounted to 11.6 million barrels per day.

It is worth noting that on February 8, the Ministry of Energy raised the forecast of average oil production in the country by the end of this year to 11.97 million, and next year to 12.6 million barrels per day.

February 9. ECB on the verge of tightening monetary policy

German Central Bank Governor Joachim Nagel suggested that the European Central Bank could raise interest rates this year, as inflation is likely to remain high for longer than expected.

Nagel, who headed the Bundesbank in January, also said that if the inflation picture does not change by March, Germany will advocate the normalization of monetary policy. And the first step to this is to stop net bond purchases during 2022.

The head of the European regulator itself, Christine Lagarde, also said last week that inflation in the eurozone will remain at an elevated level for longer than the ECB expected. Moreover, Lagarde said that the regulator can no longer rule out the scenario of a rate hike in 2022. Such a «hawkish» bias, following December comments that the ECB is unlikely to raise rates in the new year, had an immediate impact on European debt yields.

At the same time, Lagarde tried to reassure investors, assuring that any changes in the ECB's policy would be gradual.

Experts believe that the first ECB rate hike is likely to occur in the fourth quarter of the year, and the next round will take place in early 2023. Inflation in the eurozone is expected to be around 4% throughout the year. The current inflation rate is 5.1%.

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February 11. The US stock market fell on inflation data

US stock indexes fell sharply after the publication of statistics on inflation in the United States.

According to the Ministry of Labor, consumer prices (CPI) jumped 7.5% in January compared to the same month in 2021, which was a record inflation rate since 1982. In December last year, the growth rate of consumer prices accelerated by 7%.

After the release of the data, the yields of American government securities jumped sharply. The interest rate of ten-year US Treasuries has risen above the 2% mark for the first time since 2019.

The stock market did not stand aside either: indicators of all 11 S&P 500 industry groups ended trading in the red on Thursday, the subindex of technology companies most sensitive to interest rate hikes fell by 2.1%. The value of Qualcomm Inc. shares decreased by 5.3%, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. – by 5.3%, Adobe Inc. – by 5.1%, Apple Inc. – by 2.3%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell by 526.47 points (1.47%) to 35241.59 points by the close of the market on Thursday.
The Standard & Poor's 500 declined by 83.1 points (1.81%) to 4504.08 points.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 304.73 points (2.1%) to 14,185.64 points.

Analysts expect that high volatility in the stock market will continue until the March Fed meeting, at which the key rate is likely to be increased.

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February 14. Gold has risen to a maximum of three months due to geopolitics

Gold prices jumped on Monday amid increased demand for protective assets due to high geopolitical tensions on the border of Russia and Ukraine.

In particular, the precious metal quotes reached the level of $1.864.85 per ounce, which became a three-month high.

Over the weekend, it became known that the adviser to the American president on national security, Jake Sullivan, said that Russia has the opportunity to attack Ukraine without waiting for the end of the Olympics in Beijing. After that, a telephone conversation took place between the Presidents of the United States and Russia Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, but he could not ease the tension.

The American president ruled out the possibility of sending American soldiers to Ukraine, but threatened Moscow with large-scale sanctions in the event of an invasion. At the same time, Russia continues to deny its intention to attack Ukraine.

Despite the departure of investors in the assets of the «safe haven», the growth of gold is restrained by the strengthening of the dollar. The dollar is also considered a reliable asset, plus it receives support due to expectations of an imminent increase in the base interest rate of the US Federal Reserve System.

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February 15. Japan's GDP growth was 5.4%, worse than forecast

In the fourth quarter of 2021, Japan's economy grew by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2020. Experts expected the growth to be 5.8%.

The quarterly growth of the Japanese economy in October-December amounted to 1.3% compared to the previous three months – and this was the maximum growth rate for the year. Analysts had forecast the figure at 1.4%.

In the third quarter, according to the revised data, the volume of GDP decreased by 0.7%, and not by 0.9%, as previously reported.

Business investment in the last quarter increased by 0.4%, exports increased by 1%, imports decreased by 0.3%. Government spending decreased for the first time in 3 quarters – by 0.3%.

Experts note that despite the fact that the Japanese economy returned to growth in the last quarter of last year, the increase in the incidence of Covid-19 in the first quarter of this year is likely to limit further recovery.

It is noted that the expansion of the Japanese economy in the fourth quarter is mainly due to an increase in consumer spending by 2.7%. Costs have increased as the lifting of quarantine restrictions in Tokyo and other cities of the country since September 30 has led to a sharp increase in demand for services. It is also worth noting that in the current quarter, new quarantine measures were re-introduced, as another spike in morbidity is observed in the country.

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February 16. Inflation in the UK has reached an almost 30-year high of 5.5%

UK consumer prices rose at their fastest annual pace in nearly 30 years in January, putting more pressure on households and increasing the chances that the Bank of England will raise interest rates for the third consecutive meeting. Since December, the regulator has already raised interest rates twice: from 0.1% to 0.5%. Analysts expect that the rate may be increased to 0.75% or 1% as early as March.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the annual rate of consumer price inflation rose to 5.5% – the highest level since March 1992. Analysts predicted that inflation would remain at the December 5.4% level.

Core inflation (excluding volatile prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose to 4.4% in January from 4.2% in December, which is the highest since 1997.

Earlier this month, the Bank of England revised its inflation forecasts and assumed that inflation would peak at around 7.25% in April (amid a 54% increase in electricity costs). High energy prices have so far been the strongest contributor to rising inflation in the UK, although supply chain problems have also driven up prices for many other goods.

The British central bank does not expect inflation to return to the 2% target until early 2024, although most economists believe that inflation will still fall faster.

The UK is not alone in the sharp rise in the cost of living. Consumer price inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 7.5% in January, while inflation in the eurozone was 5.1% (which is the highest since the creation of the single European currency).

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February 17. Oil prices are highly volatile on news of negotiations with Iran

On Thursday, the price of oil accelerated its decline amid expectations that the United States and Iran will soon be able to return to a nuclear deal that will allow Iranian oil to come back to the world market.

April Brent futures declined during the day to the level of $91.40 per barrel, recovering later to $93.35. WTI crude oil fell to $90.30, also recovering during the day to $93.15 per barrel.

Yesterday it became known that the parties in the negotiations on the nuclear program are «closer to an agreement than ever.» This was stated by the chief negotiator from Tehran, Ali Bagheri Kani, on Twitter.

In addition, Iran and South Korea held a meeting of representatives of oil refining companies to discuss possible supplies, which suggests that Iran is definitely preparing the ground for a return to the market.

Experts note that the positive dynamics of negotiations between the United States and Iran somewhat calms the oil market. And although there is no agreement yet, prices are declining on the news of progress in negotiations and expectations of a potential return to the oil market in the amount of up to 900 thousand barrels per day by December.

At the same time, today oil prices are supported by another increase in geopolitical tensions due to the situation on the Ukrainian border. The White House said yesterday that Russia had increased the concentration of troops on the border by an additional 7 thousand people.

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February 22. Germany decided to block Nord Stream 2

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the suspension of the Nord Stream-2 certification after Russia recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR).

In addition to the announcement of the blocking of the project, Scholz announced a decision on the first package of additional sanctions against Moscow.

Against the background of this news, the cost of gas in Europe has started to rise sharply. The current quotes of «blue fuel» are again located near the level of $1,000 per thousand cubic meters.

Recall that the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline was planned to be put into operation at the end of 2019. At the same time, Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, as well as many European countries opposed the new supply route. Opponents of this Russian project have repeatedly stated that the gas pipeline is not an economic project, but a geopolitical lever of Russia's influence on Ukraine.

However, Russia has repeatedly denied these claims, emphasizing the need for reliable gas supplies to European countries, which the Ukrainian gas transportation system cannot provide.

In September 2021, the pipeline was fully completed, after which an application for certification was submitted. However, today Germany still refused the certification process against the background of a sharp deterioration in the geopolitical situation on the border with Ukraine. At the same time, Russia doubts that the European Union will be able to survive without Russian fuel: with such a policy, Europeans will have to pay about 2,000 euros per thousand cubic meters of gas.

February 21. Bitcoin collapsed below $38 thousand

The value of the most popular cryptocurrency collapsed again on Monday, reaching $37,400. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have been under pressure lately mainly due to the situation around Ukraine.

However, the impetus for a sharp drop in the exchange rate today was the news of an attack on the OpenSea NFT exchange, as a result of which attackers stole hundreds of non-interchangeable tokens with a total value of more than $1.7 million. However, the OpenSea platform itself stated that it was not hacked, and users were attacked by scammers and gave them their tokens themselves.

«As far as we can tell, this is a phishing attack. We don't think it's related to the OpenSea website,» OpenSea Executive Director Devin Finzer said.

As a result of today's collapse in prices, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell by about $70 billion per day. During the day, the value of bitcoin recovered somewhat – to the level of $39200.

Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization in the world, dropped by about 3% to $2,666. Other popular digital currencies, such as BNB, XRP and Cardano, lost about 5% in price on average.

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February 24. Brent exceeded $101 on the news about the military operation in Ukraine

On Thursday morning, the price of benchmark oil is steadily rising amid the escalation of the military situation in eastern Ukraine.

In particular, April Brent futures rose today to $101.27 per barrel, updating the highs since September 2014. Futures for North American WTI crude oil rose to the level of $96.84 per barrel.

Today it became known that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the decision to conduct a special military operation in connection with the situation in Donbass in order to protect the residents of the DPR and LPR. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, announced the introduction of martial law throughout the country.

Experts note that the military conflict significantly increases the risks of interruptions in Russian oil supplies and the introduction of diverse sanctions. At the same time, the US authorities announced that they are considering the option of re-selling oil from the country's strategic reserves (SPR) if prices for these energy resources rise sharply «as a result of Russian aggression.»

At the end of 2021, the United States already resorted to selling oil from the SPR (about 70 million barrels). This was done in coordination with other major players in the market.

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February 25. What is the risk of the Ukrainian crisis for investors?

Since the beginning of 2022, the main «headache» of investors has been the return of volatility to the market: the oil market is showing growth to multi-year highs, as well as gold, stocks and indices are rising and falling, and the crypto market has reached a minimum where bitcoin can no longer serve as a reliable «safe haven asset».

At the same time, investors have been worried about another news in recent days – Russia's invasion of the territory of Ukraine, which led to a fall in the ruble exchange rate and the suspension of the Moscow Stock Exchange. Analysts are closely monitoring the development of events and advise only one thing so far – not to give in to panic.

«Although Russia and Ukraine will dominate the news in the near future, they will not determine the medium– and long-term direction of the market,» says Tom Essey, founder of the newsletter The Sevens Report.

The United States and its allies have so far announced a modest first stage of sanctions, to which the market reacted rather restrainedly. However, in the event of an escalation of the conflict, consumers and companies may refrain from loans, which will undoubtedly hit the banks.

In addition, the shares of the tourism sector and the leisure sector may suffer, since during global crises, customers are usually not interested in travel and entertainment.

Analysts believe that US Treasury bonds and Japanese government bonds may become the most resistant to the shock. Experts also suggest that the investment portfolio is likely to suffer due to a possible tightening of the policy of central banks and a slowdown in economic growth, and not because of the Ukrainian conflict itself.

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March 1. Oil continues to rise in price

The price of oil continues to rise on Tuesday amid the continuation of military operations on the territory of Ukraine. Prices are increasing, even despite reports from the United States about the further release of oil from strategic reserves.

As it became known, the United States and other members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) may soon decide to release about 70 million barrels of oil from reserves. An emergency meeting of the organization will be held today.

However, analysts believe that any release of oil from reserves will only be a short-term solution, especially if the supply of raw materials from Russia decreases. Warren Patterson, who is responsible for commodity markets strategy at ING Groep NV, said that it is unlikely that today's market expects a significant change in Russian exports, which suggests the likelihood of an even greater price increase in the event of a deterioration in the situation in Ukraine.

The current Brent quote is $100.17 per barrel. The price of WTI oil futures is hovering around $97.40 per barrel.

February 28. China does not intend to stop trade cooperation with Russia

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China has announced its intention to continue mutually beneficial trade cooperation with Russia.

The country has no plans to join the Western sanctions imposed in response to Russia's special operation in the Donbas. The United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States and Canada have imposed sanctions against Russia aimed at Russian banks, members of the State Duma who supported the recognition of the DPR and LPR, some businessmen, as well as personally against Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

In addition, the European Union has closed its airspace to Russian aircraft and banned aircraft from landing, taking off or flying over the territory of the Union.

The EU has also decided to prohibit operations related to the management of reserves and assets of the Central Bank of Russia, including transactions with any legal entity, organization or body acting on behalf of or on behalf of the Central Bank.

China has stated that it opposes unilateral sanctions that are not based on international law. In addition, the PRC demanded that the United States not harm the legitimate rights and interests of China and other parties in resolving the Ukrainian issue.

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March 3. Brent rose to $118 per barrel for the first time in nine years

The oil market continues to grow, updating all new highs. Today, Brent oil quotes have reached the level of $118.20 per barrel for the first time since February 2013. The cost of North American WTI oil rose to $114.35 per barrel.

Oil is getting more expensive against the background of a shortage due to the refusal of customers to purchase Russian raw materials. Analytical companies report that almost 70% of Russian oil trade has been frozen to date. Buyers are boycotting Urals oil, despite the large discount to the market (about $19) and the fact that the sanctions did not directly affect the energy sector.

Further deterioration of the situation in Ukraine will lead to the fact that an increasing number of major players in the oil market will withdraw from oil and gas projects in Russia and look for alternative sources of supply. And this will contribute to the continued growth of oil prices. To date, the American company Exxonmobil, the British-Dutch Shell, the British BP and the Norwegian Equinor have left the Russian market.

To reduce high prices, members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) have agreed to sell 60 million barrels of oil from national reserves. The US Department of Energy also decided to release 30 million barrels from the country's strategic reserve.

At the same time, the OPEC+ countries at yesterday's meeting decided not to accelerate the pace of increasing oil production and decided to maintain the plan to increase production quotas in April by 400 thousand barrels per day. The organization noted that the current fundamental indicators of the market and its future prospects indicate a good balance, and the current volatility is only a consequence of current geopolitical events.

March 2. Buyers are boycotting Russian oil, despite a huge discount

According to analysts, large oil buyers are boycotting Russian Urals oil because of the situation in Ukraine, despite the fact that Russia offers a discount to the market of up to $20 per barrel. Experts note that about 70% of Russian oil exported is difficult to find buyers.

And although American and European sanctions do not restrict energy exports from Russia, ordinary buyers prefer to look for alternative sources of supply. To date, only a few refiners and traders buy Russian oil, but a sharp increase in the cost of freight and the appearance of «military» premiums for risk insurance significantly complicate transactions.

Europe is mainly switching to oil from the Middle East. Until now, European countries were the largest export market for Russian oil (the region accounted for about 53% of supplies). Another 39% of exports go to Asia.

At the same time, it has already become known that Asian countries are also gradually abandoning Russian oil. In particular, the Times of India newspaper reported that the country's largest oil refining company ****** Oil Corp. it will no longer purchase Russian oil, as well as oil from Kazakhstan on FOB terms (the costs of cargo delivery to the port of shipment are taken into account), since these conditions do not take into account the increase in the cost of freight and risk insurance.

The pressure on the energy sector is also exerted by gas, the cost of which has soared by 57% in Europe today – to $ 2,227 per thousand cubic meters. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that the worst-case scenario of sanctions against Russia has not yet materialized, as the country continues to export gas. At the same time, he added that it is necessary to prepare for the worst-case scenario. It is worth noting that Russia provides about 40% of gas supplies to Europe.

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March 9. Bitcoin jumped by 8% after the statement of the US Treasury

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies jumped sharply in price after details of the executive order of President Joe Biden appeared on the website of the US Treasury Department. The order calls for an integrated approach to digital assets, and notes that government agencies will coordinate their work in this area.

It is noteworthy that this statement was removed from the Ministry's websites a few hours after it was made public. However, this was enough to increase optimism in the cryptocurrency market.

According to CoinDesk, the current price of bitcoin is $42,361.30. Other cryptocurrencies, including ether, also rose sharply. The cost of the ether is $2747.32.

Analysts note that while some countries, for example, China, seek to destroy the cryptocurrency trade, others, in particular, El Salvador, accept it as a legal means of payment. In the USA, there is no structure of a sufficiently high level for the development and regulation of cryptocurrencies.

«The leaked Treasury statement has been welcomed by the crypto market as it seems to focus on development of the industry, rather than on imposing unrealistic regulations,» said Yuya Hasegawa, market analyst at the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank.

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March 11. Gold is getting cheaper as international tensions decrease

At the end of the week, gold shows a decline of more than 1% amid the weakening of geopolitical international tensions.

The current price of the April precious metal futures on the New York Comex exchange is $1981 per ounce. May silver futures fell to $26,117 per ounce.

The world stock and commodity markets today react mainly to the statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin that there are certain positive developments in negotiations with Ukraine. He stated this at today's meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.

Traditionally, gold is used by investors as a safe haven asset, and on such positive news, many market participants began to switch to riskier instruments. Analysts note that the advantage of gold at the current level of foreign policy risks is rapidly decreasing.

At the same time, experts suggest that the sanctions imposed against Russia in the near future may further affect supplies, which will push commodity assets to growth.

March 10. Inflation in the US has updated the maximum in 40 years

According to the US Department of Labor, annual inflation in the country accelerated to 7.9% in annual terms by the end of February and reached its highest since 1982.

Last month, inflation increased by 7.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.8%.

The annual figure is still at the records of forty years ago, now it is the highest since January 1982. The value of January was a record since February 1982.

The indicators in annual and monthly terms coincided with analysts' forecasts.

It is worth noting that core inflation in the United States (excluding food and energy prices) for the year was 6.4%, and for February – 0.5%.

Food prices in the United States rose by 1% in February, energy prices rose by 6.7%. Over the year, food has risen in price by 7.9%, and energy – by 37.9%.

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March 14. Oil started to decline at the beginning of a new trading week

On Monday, the price of oil continued the decline, which began last week: the current Brent quote is $107.34 per barrel. Although more recently the price rose to the level of $ 130 per barrel. WTI quotes dropped to $102.82 per barrel (the recent high is $125.80). In total, at the end of the week, Brent fell by 5%, WTI – by 6%.

Oil market participants continue to closely monitor the situation around Ukraine. The President of the country, Vladimir Zelensky, said that negotiations between representatives of the delegations of Russia and Ukraine continue every day in a video format. Zelensky noted that the main task of the delegations is to organize a future meeting of the presidents of the conflicting countries.

Another factor influencing the dynamics of oil prices is the unclear prospect of the return of Iranian oil to the world market. Last week, Russia demanded from the United States legally formalized guarantees that Western sanctions would not hinder full-fledged trade, economic and investment cooperation between Moscow and Tehran in the event of the restoration of the agreement on the Iranian nuclear program (JCPOA).

In response, the United States stated that it did not consider it possible to negotiate exceptions to sanctions against the Russian Federation concerning its trade with Iran in order to preserve the JCPOA.

March 15. China's digital yuan may challenge the dollar

China is currently making great strides in implementing its central bank's national digital currency. Experts note that in 5-10 years, the Chinese digital yuan may well challenge the dominance of the dollar as the preferred currency in international trade settlements.

According to many analysts, the desire of world countries for alternative payment systems is mainly due to their desire to reduce the current (almost 100%) dependence on the US dollar. It is quite possible that in the future this dependence on the dollar will decrease to 80-85%.

In the United States, they are also thinking about introducing a digital dollar, but the United States will need about 5 more years just to plan and test a potential digital currency. At the same time, China has been preparing for the use of the digital yuan since 2014. It is obvious that at the moment the Celestial Empire occupies a leading place among all countries of the world and has outstripped all available financial technologies by a decade.

However, experts doubt that Beijing will use its «newborn» currency to save Russia under sanctions, despite some support from China in the Ukrainian conflict. Ultimately, China intends to achieve widespread recognition of the digital yuan, and turning it into a means against sanctions in the current conditions will not help in achieving this goal.

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March 16. Economist named three signs of the end of dollar dominance

Economist Henrik Müller said that the US dollar may lose its status as the world's main currency. Doubts about the happy future of the US dollar are caused by several factors at once. Let's consider the main ones.

First, inflation can seriously damage international confidence in the dollar and shake investor confidence in the value of the US currency. Müller stressed that the current inflation in the United States is at the level of 8% (and this is not the limit), and the further development of the situation depends on the actions of the Federal Reserve System.

Anti-Russian sanctions may also have a negative impact on the dollar. To date, the most serious measure against Russia is the freezing of Moscow's foreign exchange reserves in other central banks. Up to this point, such a step had never been taken in this form before. And if fears spread that Washington may confiscate foreign currency assets of other countries at any moment, the dollar may come under extreme pressure.

And the situation in Ukraine itself does not bode well for the dollar in the long term. As events unfold, the balance of forces in the financial market is changing – along with the global financial institutions of the United States, new blocs from sovereign countries with fragmented markets appear and strengthen their influence.

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March 17. Oil remains close to $100 per barrel

The oil market has experienced a real shock in recent weeks: prices rose at the moment to the level of $130 per barrel and fell to a local minimum near $97 per barrel. The current quote of Brent is $100.23, the cost of WTI oil is at $96.90.

Investors continue to monitor the situation around Ukraine, as well as news from China, where a new outbreak of Covid-19 has been recorded.

Moreover, of interest was the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which Russia may reduce oil production in April by 3 million b/d against the backdrop of sanctions and refusals of oil buyers from abroad. And this, in turn, could cause a global oil supply shock.

It is worth noting that among all the OPEC+ countries, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sufficient spare capacity that could compensate for the reduction in supplies from Russia. In this regard, some countries are proposing to increase OPEC oil production in order to contain price increases.

Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeiba noted that market volatility is already very high, and the huge risk of further supply cuts could push volatility to new levels. Moreover, the market is very vulnerable to the deterioration of the situation around Ukraine.

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March 18. India has increased the import of Russian oil by 4 times

Analysts note that Russian oil exports to India increased fourfold in March, which indicates a redistribution of global energy flows after the situation around Ukraine.

India, which is the third largest country in the world in terms of energy consumption, bought several batches of oil at once, as buyers from Europe refused Russia's resources due to sanctions. In particular, the Russian Federation exported 360 thousand barrels per day to India in March, which is almost 4 times more than last year.

The United States reacted negatively to such actions: White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said that India could be on the verge of a historical past if it buys Russian oil. At the same time, Psaki admitted that these purchases would not violate US sanctions.

Last week, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, during a telephone conversation with Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, discussed further cooperation and joint areas of work in the fuel and energy sector. At the moment, Russian exports of oil and petroleum products to India have approached $1 billion, and representatives of the countries hope for an effective increase in this indicator.

The Indian authorities said they are developing a mechanism for buying and selling raw materials in rupees and rubles, which will significantly facilitate trade after Western restrictions on international currency transfers to and from Russia.

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March 21. Brent crude oil rose to $115 per barrel

On Monday, oil prices accelerated their growth after a decline at the end of last week and reached the level of $115 per barrel. The cost of raw materials is rising against the background of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as increasing tensions in the Middle East.

Today, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that oil prices could jump to $300 per barrel if the West refuses Russian oil. As you know, the European Union is going to impose an embargo on oil from Russia in the near future. However, it is worth noting that today Russia is the largest supplier of oil to Europe, which consumes about 500 million tons of oil, of which about 150 million tons, or 30%, are accounted for by Russian products. The country also supplies another 80 million tons of petroleum products to the EU.

Novak noted that it is absolutely logical to expect that the rejection of Russian oil will lead to disastrous consequences for the world market. At the same time, it is impossible to replace the volume of Russian oil on the European market quickly, and it will probably take more than one year. In such a scenario, European consumers will suffer, first of all: gasoline, heating and electricity will significantly rise in price.

News from the Middle East had an additional impact on the market today. There, the Yemeni Houthis attacked several facilities in Saudi Arabia, including the fuel depot of the state oil company Saudi Aramco.

The focus is also on the situation in China, where another jump in the incidence of Covid-19 was noted. Investors are trying to assess whether this news will affect the volume of oil demand.

March 22. Xiaomi net profit collapsed by 72% in the IV quarter

Chinese electronics manufacturer Xiaomi Corp sharply cut its fourth-quarter net profit due to massive write-offs, while the company's revenue, on the contrary, increased.

According to the company's press release, last quarter's net profit fell to 2.44 billion yuan ($383.9 million), compared with 8.8 billion yuan in the same period a year earlier. The drop was driven by 3.14 billion yuan of investment write-offs.

Meanwhile, the company's revenue increased by 21% year-on-year to 85.58 billion yuan. The increase in revenue was due to an increase in sales in physical terms and an increase in selling prices.

It is also noted that according to the results of all 2021, Xiaomi increased its revenue by 33.5% to 328.31 billion yuan. At the same time, net profit decreased by 5.1% and amounted to 19.28 billion yuan. Revenue from overseas operations last year rose 33.7% to 163.6 billion yuan, accounting for 49.8% of Xiaomi's total revenue.

For the entire past year, the company sold 190.3 million phones, which is 30% higher than in 2020. Overall, Xiaomi ranked third in the list of leading smartphone manufacturers in the world in 2021 with a market share of 14.1%.

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March 23. Annual inflation in the UK has reached its highest since 1992

According to the report of the National Statistical Service of the United Kingdom, the consumer price index in February in the UK showed an increase of 6.2% compared with 5.5% in the previous month. This was the highest figure in the last 30 years. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.8% after falling by 0.1% in January.

Analysts expected annual inflation to accelerate to 5.9%, and monthly consumer prices were expected to rise by 0.6%.

At the same time, the CPIH index (inflation taking into account homeowners' expenses for housing maintenance) was 5.5% after 4.9% a month earlier. In February, prices for this index increased by 0.7%.

Analysts believe that the growth of the consumer price index in Britain may even be above 10%, given the continuing rise in gasoline prices in the country due to anti-Russian sanctions imposed as a result of the events in Ukraine. Last week, amid increasing geopolitical tensions in the world, the Bank of England raised its base interest rate to 0.75% from 0.5% for the second time since February. Then the regulator warned that inflation could reach 8% in April.

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March 24. Serbia called the transfer of payments for gas in rubles a serious problem

Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the transition to settlement in rubles when paying for Russian gas exports to unfriendly countries. He also instructed the Central Bank and the government to determine in a week the procedure for the purchase of rubles in the domestic market of the Russian Federation by buyers of Russian gas. In total, Russia currently exports gas worth about $10 billion a month.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, in response to these actions, said that the transfer of gas payments to rubles would entail many problems. Vucic noted that some consider Putin's decision ingenious in the context of geopolitics and the organization of opposition to the dollar along with the yuan, but the Serbian president himself questioned its effectiveness and expediency.

Poland also does not agree with such a decision of the Russian authorities and does not see for itself the possibility of paying for gas in rubles. The head of the Polish gas company PGNiG, Pavel Majewski, said that the payment method has already been included in the contract with Russia for gas supplies, and Poland does not intend to change it. Germany also stated that the change of the settlement currency is the reason for the termination of the contract.

Vucic also noted that there is Bulgaria, which has explicitly stated its unwillingness to conduct settlements in rubles. The Serbian President stressed that it is this country that organizes the transit of Russian gas to Serbia and Hungary.

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March 25. The US. Main news: stock market, macro statistics

The stock market of the United States is showing a certain upswing: support is provided by the position of NATO not to physically interfere in the geopolitical crisis, as well as the manifestation of allied solidarity within the alliance.

Additional optimism was brought by statements by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neil Kashkari, that he expects 7 rate hikes by 25 basis points this year. At the same time, the representative of the Fed noted the likelihood of overdoing it on the issue of tightening monetary policy.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans expects a similar scenario with 3 more increases in 2023, but at the same time excludes the possibility of a 50 bp rate hike.

American macrostatistics turned out to be contradictory. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 28 thousand last week (to 187 thousand), which is the lowest value since 1969. Orders for durable goods decreased by 2.2% in February, and excluding defense orders – by 2.7%.

Business activity, on the contrary, shows growth already in March. According to preliminary estimates, the index of business activity in the service sector in February increased from 56.5% to 58.9%, and the manufacturing PMI increased from 57.3% to 58.5%.

From corporate news, it is worth highlighting the growth of Uber shares by 4.96% after the announcement that the company has agreed to subscribe all taxi drivers in New York to its app. All sectors of the S&P 500 showed growth. The strongest were communications (+1.69%), information technology (+2.71%) and materials (+1.96%).

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March 30. Inflation in Germany reached record 7,3%

According to a preliminary estimate by the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), annual inflation in the country accelerated from 5.1% in February to 7.3% in March.

A similar inflation rate was a record for the entire history of Destatis observations. Until that moment, the highest inflation rate was recorded in March-May 1992 – then the figure was 6.2%.

On a monthly basis, German consumer prices rose 2.5%. Analysts predicted annual inflation at 6.3%, and monthly – 1.6%.

At the same time, consumer prices in the country according to EU standards (harmonized consumer price index) accelerated growth over the year from 5.5% in February to 7.6% in March. And in March they grew from 0.9% to 2.5%. Analysts had expected figures at 6.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the same time, experts do not exclude the possibility that the rise in prices in Germany could reach 10% if the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine continues to gain momentum.

March 29. Saudi Arabia may contribute to a record rise in oil prices

Saudi Arabia's national oil company Aramco, which is the world's largest oil exporter, does not rule out the possibility of an increase in the price of its main grade of crude oil to a record level. And this is despite the fact that China – the main buyer of Saudi oil - is struggling with the Covid-19 outbreak.

According to the average price estimate of five oil refining and trading companies, Saudi Aramco may increase the official selling price of its Arab Light grade oil with shipment in May by $5 per barrel. This would increase the price difference with the Oman-Dubai reference grade to $9.95.

The company itself has not yet given any comments on this, since it usually publishes official prices in the first 5 days of the month.

Recall that the world price of oil jumped to the highest level since 2008 in this quarter after the start of the military special operation in Ukraine. The maximum was marked at $130 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $103.34, WTI oil is trading near $100 per barrel.

Analysts expect that Saudi Arabia's actions will inevitably lead to the resumption of growth in the oil market. In addition, a reduction in supplies from Russia by 1.5 million barrels per day will also have an impact on prices. At the same time, despite the current situation in the world and huge supply disruptions, OPEC+ members stated that they still do not see the need to adjust production plans.

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April 1. Does Nord Stream-2 have a future?

Against the background of acute geopolitical tensions in Europe, the future of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is now in great doubt, say energy analysts.

The 1,234 km (2,468 km) offshore gas pipeline was designed to double gas supplies between Russia and Germany. However, in November last year, the German energy regulator suspended the certification process of the gas pipeline, and in February, with the beginning of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, it froze it altogether.

Analysts note that the large-scale geopolitical crisis has put an end to any joint projects and business partnership between Russia and the West. And Nord Stream-2, worth $11 billion, became one of the first victims of anti-Russian sanctions.

Moreover, the European Union has stated that by the end of 2022 it is going to reduce the import of Russian gas by two–thirds, and by 2030 it is going to completely end dependence on Russian imports of fossil fuels. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the termination of gas exports to «unfriendly» countries if gas payments are not made in rubles. The main EU countries responded to this demand with a refusal.

Many analysts and politicians doubt the likelihood of the resumption of the gas pipeline. It is obvious that the future fate of the Nord Stream-2 will depend on how the Ukrainian crisis ends, and who will ultimately dictate the conditions.

There are assumptions that the Nord Stream-2 will be able to be used for the transportation of hydrogen in the future, and Russia will be a potential supplier. However, this method of using the gas pipeline will depend on the decision of Germany itself – whether it will eventually want to revive energy relations with Russia using next-generation fuel under the flag of decarbonization.

March 31. Oil declined sharply after a significant increase

On Thursday, oil prices showed a sharp decline after the publication of the weekly report on oil reserves in the United States. In addition, traders are waiting for Washington to announce measures to support American consumers amid rising energy prices.

Brent oil quotes fell from the level of $112 per barrel to $105.12 in just a few hours. By Thursday morning, the price had recovered somewhat to $107.22 per barrel. The cost of North American WTI oil decreased from $108 to $100.55 per barrel. The current WTI quote is $102.56.

Today, the White House is to present a package of measures aimed at reducing energy prices on the American market. The Biden administration is considering releasing approximately 1 million barrels of oil per day from U.S. strategic reserves within a few months to combat rising gasoline prices and supply shortages.

At the same time, analysts note that the rise in prices and other problems caused by the Ukrainian crisis are of a medium- and long-term nature, while the release of oil from strategic reserves is only a short-term solution.

Another factor influencing the oil market was yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy, according to which commercial oil reserves in the country fell by 3.45 million barrels per week. Experts expected a less significant decrease – by 2 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline reserves increased by 785,000 barrels and amounted to 238.83 million barrels, distillate reserves increased by 1.4 million barrels to 113.53 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decrease in gasoline stocks by 1.6 million barrels and a drop in distillate stocks by 1.5 million barrels.

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April 4. Twitter shares up 26% after Elon Musk takes stake

According to information from the US Securities Commission website, businessman Elon Musk acquired a 9.2% stake in the social network Twitter. On the back of this news, the company's shares jumped 26%.

The CEO of SpaceX and Tesla now owns nearly 73.5 million Twitter shares. The value of the block of shares is $2.89 billion, based on the share price on the stock exchange on April 1 – $49.40 per share.

A little earlier, Elon Musk conducted a survey among Twitter users, according to the results of which about 70% of respondents (a total of 2 million users voted) are sure that this social network does not adhere to the principles of freedom of speech. At the same time, Musk wrote that he was thinking about creating his own platform.

Media reports that the fact that Musk became a shareholder of the platform will be another serious test for the new CEO of Twitter, Parag Agrawal. Agrawal succeeded company founder Jack Dorsey, who stepped down in November.

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April 13. The UK is preparing for new inflationary jumps

Analysts of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) say that the UK is waiting for new jumps in inflation, as well as rising costs for business and an increase in the cost of living.

Annual inflation in the country accelerated from February 6.2% to 7% by the end of March. This indicator has updated the record since 1992. At the same time, on a monthly basis in March, consumer prices rose by 1.1% after an increase of 0.8% in February.

Alpesh Palea, a leading economist at the CBI, noted that such a jump in inflation in March is not the last, and we should expect another price increase in April, when the increase in marginal energy prices will take effect. The volatility of global commodity prices and ongoing disruptions in supply chains continue to be additional factors of price growth. As a result, businesses will face higher costs, and households will face an increase in the cost of living.

Palea believes that the apparent dependence of inflation on the cost of energy carriers underscores the need to double investments in green energy. The economist believes that improving the energy efficiency of residential and commercial buildings will help reduce consumer demand and costs.

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April 14. ECB keeps rates unchanged​​​​​​​

The European Central Bank expectedly kept the base interest rate on loans at zero, the deposit rate – at minus 0.5%. The rate on margin loans is left at 0.25%.

The regulator also announced a reduction in asset repurchase under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) to 30 billion euros in May from 40 billion euros in April. In June, asset repurchase will decrease to 20 billion euros.

At the same time, the ECB noted that the adjustment of asset repurchases within the APP in the third quarter will depend on statistical data. The Governing Council intends to keep rates at current levels until inflation in the euro area reaches 2% and is steadily fixed at this level.

The Board of Governors also intends to continue reinvesting proceeds from the repayment of securities purchased under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) at least until the end of 2024. It is worth noting that the repurchase of securities under PEPP was completed in March of this year.

After the ECB meeting, the euro/dollar exchange rate dropped from $1.0923 to $1.0758. The current quote of the EUR/USD pair is $1.0825.

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Covid-19 outbreak in China damages growth prospects of country's economy​​​​​​​

China's economy is set to break growth records, but an unexpected outbreak of coronavirus, forced restrictive measures, and numerous problems abroad are limiting its surge.

In Q1 2022, the country's GDP showed fairly strong growth compared to the previous quarter. The GDP jumped by 4.8% on a yearly basis, according to the published data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. According to Trading Economics, experts had forecasted China's economy to grow at a lower rate of 4.4%. Notably, in Q4 2021, China's GDP rose at an annualized rate of 4%. In the first three months from the beginning of this year, the Chinese economy grew by 1.3%.

China is trying to cope with the resulting domestic and external difficulties, compensating for the obvious dips in the economy in March with surprisingly strong growth of indicators in January and February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on China's economy cannot be avoided. Severe restrictive measures, which the Chinese government imposed on its population in March, undermined the production of goods and markedly reduced consumer spending within the country. Only the sharp growth of the economy in the first two months of 2022 formed quite optimistic overall figures for the entire first quarter.

Consequently, retail sales fell by 3.5% in March, showing a much worse-than-forecast reading, while in January-February they were estimated at 6.7%.

The Chinese labor market traditionally experienced a revival in March, as factories usually try to attract as many employees as possible to their shops after the Lunar New Year holiday. This March, however, the sector suffered a severe shock. According to surveys, the national unemployment rate in March was 5.8%, which was last seen only at the beginning of 2020. Moreover, unemployment in more than thirty major cities reached a record 6.0%.

The industrial sector in China showed more positive figures in March than the labor market. Given the widespread shutdowns, production managed to increase by 5.0% year-on-year and even beat forecasts of 4.5%. However, we should admit that compared to the unprecedented rise in January-February, when production increased by 7.5%, the figures for March were rather lackluster.

The investment into the fixed capital in the first quarter is following a similar scenario: investment increased, but there was some damage in March to the elated growth of the first two months of the year. Thus, investment in fixed capital in the first quarter grew by 9.3% year-on-year, but this growth is not so positive, as in the first two months alone it was as much as 12.2%. Notably, fixed-asset investment is the key growth driver of the Chinese economy. These are the indicators that the Chinese government is counting on.

The real estate market in China is increasingly slipping into recession. Home sales by value fell by a full 26.2% year-over-year in March, and new construction declined by 17.5%. According to Reuters, the drop was the largest since early 2020.

The unexpected outbreak of coronavirus in China derailed the enthusiastic growth of the economy and sent it into a sluggish state of moderate recovery. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the sanctions imposed on Russia have also hit key sectors of the Chinese economy, as they have shaped unprecedented increases in the prices of energy, metals, and wheat, and further undermined global supply chains.

Many economists are already highly doubtful that Beijing can achieve its goal of a 5.5% GDP increase this year. The Wall Street Journal notes that demand for Chinese exports in the US and Europe has been severely weakened due to record inflation last seen decades ago.

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Asian indices grow on hopes for support from government​​​​​​​

Asia-Pacific stock indices showed mixed trading during Tuesday's session. The Chinese Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Composite indices increased by 0.12% and 0.06% respectively, while Hong Kong Hang Seng Index showed a rather significant decline of 1.88%. All other regional indicators rose. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index added 0.64%, the Korean KOSPI index gained 0.96%, and the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index increased by 0.52%.

The main reason for the growth of Asian indices was the message of the Central Bank of China about the creation and the soon involvement of a series of measures to state support of enterprises, which were most affected by restrictions related to the spread of coronavirus in the country.

There will also be an increase in lending in regions with a low rate of credit growth. It is suggested that more credit be given to firms engaged in transporting essential goods during the pandemic.

At the same time, there has been an increase in government regulation of companies involved in the technology sector.

The Chinese companies whose securities added in value are Link Real Estate Investment Trust gaining 1.55%, CNOOC, Ltd. increasing by 1.4%, and PetroChina Co. adding 1.2%.

The Nikkei 225 was boosted by the declining yen. This is more beneficial for exporting companies as it increases their potential income.

In February 2022, there was an increase in Japan's industrial production by 2%. In January, this indicator showed a decline of 2.4%. At the same time, the indicator exceeded the forecasts of experts, who assumed that the growth would be only 0.1%.

Meanwhile, investors remain concerned about rising energy and food costs. They lack confidence that central banks can combat inflation without undermining business activity in their states.

Among the companies on the Japanese index, Pacific Metals Co. added 8.4%, Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co. gained 5.2%, and Mazda Motor Corp. increased by 4.8%.

Other Japanese companies showed smaller increases. Toyota Motor Corp. added 1.3%, and Toshiba Corp. jumped by 1.5%. SoftBank Group Corp. dropped by 1.7%, and Fast Retailing Co. decreased by 1.5%.

Among the companies on the KOSPI index, Samsung Electronics Co. added 1.35%, and Hyundai Motor Co. increased by 1.1%. However, Kia Corp. grew only by 0.1%.

Among the components of the S&P/ASX 200 index, BHP Group, Ltd. jumped by 1.3%, and Rio Tinto, Ltd. increased by 1.5%.

Gold quotes fell to more than a week's low

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard sees no need for the Fed to raise interest rates by more than 50 basis points. However, the central bank has previously raised interest rates more strongly, and therefore Bullard does not rule out a potential increase of 75 basis points.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said on Tuesday that federal funds rates could reach 2.5% by the end of the year.

June COMEX gold futures closed down $27.40, or 1.4%, at $1,959 an ounce, the lowest since April 11, while May silver futures fell 76 cents, or 2. 9%, to $25.391 an ounce.

As a result of Monday's session, gold reached the closing high for the most actively traded contracts since March 10. That day, trading ended at a 19-month high of $2,000.40, according to Dow Jones data.

Gold prices rose in six of the last seven sessions, despite rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Rising bond yields increase the opportunity cost of owning gold, which does not generate coupon income. At the same time, the strengthening of the dollar makes commodities denominated in this currency more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The dollar continued to rise on Tuesday: the ICE dollar index, which tracks the dynamics of the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, reached a maximum since March 2020. The Japanese yen fell sharply against the dollar as the BOJ remains overly loose as the US Federal Reserve prepares to sharply raise interest rates and cut its asset balance in an attempt to contain rising inflation.

Meanwhile, gold is gaining support amid the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Gold is considered a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty.

Technical analysis shows the potential for growth in gold prices, Otunuga notes, but quotes, apparently, are forming a new range. Support is located around $1960 and resistance is at $2000. In the event of a fall below $1960, prices could drop to $1920. In the event of a break above $2,000, the quotes may test the strength of the resistance levels located at the levels in 2009, 2015 and 2050 dollars.

Meanwhile, May copper futures ended the day down 1.8% at $4.718 a pound. July platinum futures fell 3.1% to $988.70 an ounce, while June palladium contracts fell nearly 2.7% to $2,380.40 an ounce.

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Oil market news: while prices falling, return to the old days remains impossible​​​​​​​

Oil is declining sharply on Monday due to expectations of falling demand for energy resources in China. Thus, June futures on Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange is estimated at $101.37 per barrel today, down by 4.49% from the previous session's close. The price of WTI futures for June on NYMEX electronic trading is $97.42 per barrel, which is 4.42% lower than the result of the previous trading. According to last week's results, the price of benchmark Brent crude fell by 4.5% and WTI crude dropped by 4.1%.

China's largest city and financial center, Shanghai, reported a record number of new COVID-19 cases in the past two days - 39 deaths. The total number of deaths among those infected in this city with a population of 25 million people now stands at 87. The first deaths in Shanghai were reported on April 18. A lockdown was imposed in Shanghai on March 28, with most businesses shut down, markets and stores closed and residents locked in their homes and apartments. The population in Shanghai is daily tested for COVID-19 and those who test positive are sent to isolation centers.

Lockdown in Shanghai strongly affects global markets, as huge batches of Chinese components due to idling in factories and plants simply cannot reach production facilities in other countries.

The lockdowns fully affected the demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which in China in April is likely to fall by 20% on a yearly basis. According to Bloomberg, the fuel price drop only for the current month has all chances to reach 1.2 million barrels per day. If this forecast comes true, the drop will be the most rapid since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Chinese city of Wuhan more than two years ago.

In the light of Russia's rapidly developing military action in Ukraine, the situation in the oil markets is getting much worse. However, the disrupted global supply chain system, skyrocketing inflation, and acute shortages of energy resources were observed in the world even before the Russian special military operation, which has only worsened the prospects and made it impossible to find a quick way out of the current situation.

However, according to some experts, the conflict in Ukraine will end sooner or later, after which the global commodity market will return to its normal pre-crisis state. For example, analyst Michael Lynch reported in Forbes magazine that Russia's military operation will definitely end. The oil market will no longer have reason to worry, and it is sure to return to normal, and fuel prices will fall to quite acceptable levels. Analysts believe that the situation will be normalized by the lifting of sanctions against Russia. The return to the normal operation of the energy market is probably the main condition for Western European countries to maintain their economies and their usual standards of living.

However, the lifting of sanctions is a forced measure for the political elites of the European Union, but not for the United States. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who has repeatedly stressed in his speeches that it did not matter to his country whether Russia ends its military operation or not, the sanctions against it would not be lifted by the United States anyway.

Oil Price reported that the long duration of today's stalemate increases the chance that there would be no return to the old pattern. For example, the fact that Europe is shifting from pipeline gas to liquefied natural gas and that Russian exports are shifting to Asian markets is irreversible. In this regard, the prognosis so far is disappointing for buyers: high oil prices promise to remain so for a long time.

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May 6. Brent rose to $114 per barrel

The price of oil is rising on Friday on continuing concerns that the market will face a shortage of supply.

The current Brent quote is $112.57 (the daily maximum is at $114 per barrel). WTI oil is trading at $109.56 (the daily maximum is $110.84 per barrel). Analysts note that since the beginning of the week, oil quotes have increased by more than 5% and may end with a strong increase for the third week in a row.

OPEC+ countries yesterday agreed to maintain the plan to increase the production quota in June by 432 thousand barrels per day. However, despite a systematic increase in quotas since August 2021, OPEC+ cannot reach the permitted production level. It is noted that by the end of March, producers lagged behind by 1.45 million b/s.

Meanwhile, European states are preparing to restrict oil imports from Russia. Earlier this week, the European Commission proposed to impose an embargo on Russian oil supplies to EU countries as part of the upcoming sixth package of sanctions. An additional impact on the dynamics of oil prices is the concern about demand due to the outbreak of coronavirus in China, as well as about the increasingly narrowing supply.

Moreover, the US has announced its intention to start buying oil on the market to replenish the strategic reserve (SPR). It is expected that the Ministry of Energy will begin accepting applications from sellers this fall, although real deliveries will begin later.

May 5. Bank of England hikes interest rates to 13-year high

The Bank of England has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2009 to counter inflation, which could exceed 10% this year.

The regulator raised the rate from 0.75% to 1%. Some representatives of the central bank called for an even greater increase – up to 1.25%, in order to eliminate the risk of inflation entering the economy.

Today's Bank of England move represents the fourth consecutive rate hike since December – and the fastest increase in borrowing costs in 25 years.

The regulator also did not rule out further tightening of monetary policy in the coming months.

In addition, the Bank of England said that it is also concerned about the impact of China's policy to block Covid-19, which threatens to hit supply chains again and increase inflationary pressures.

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May 13. Oil market shows signs of recovery

The price of oil continues to rise on Friday amid uncertainty about the imposition of a European embargo on oil supplies from Russia. Some EU countries believe that it is necessary to postpone the embargo on Russian imports if Hungary still does not support this ban.

An additional influence on price dynamics is exerted by the situation in China, where the incidence of Covid-19 has declined.

The current Brent oil quote is $108.87 per barrel. The daily high was marked at $109.72. The cost of North American WTI oil is located near $107.30 (the daily maximum is $108.12 per barrel).

Investors also drew attention to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which the decline in the supply of Russian oil on the world market in the second half of the year may reach 3 million barrels per day. In April, Russia had already reduced production by almost 1 million b/d, which led to a reduction in global supplies by 710 thousand b/d (to 98.1 million b/d).

At the same time, pressure on the oil market is exerted by fears that a rapid tightening of monetary policy by world central banks will provoke an economic downturn and a subsequent decline in demand for energy resources.

May 12. Bitcoin has broken through the level of $26 thousand

The bitcoin exchange rate continues its decline, which began yesterday. The current quote of the most popular cryptocurrency is $27.775.40, the daily minimum was marked at $25.845. The market capitalization of the asset decreased to $515 billion with daily trading volumes of $ 71 billion.

The crypto market began to decline after the publication of inflation data in the United States. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 8.3% in April. This indicator turned out to be 0.2% higher than forecasts (8.1%) and approached the highs for 40 years.

Such statistics somewhat scared investors who hurried to get rid of high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. According to experts, both stocks and crypto assets fell in price, which caused panic in the market.

It is worth noting that bitcoin has already fallen below the level of $29 thousand twice in a week. Experts call the $30 thousand level a landmark reference point for bitcoin – until recently, the cryptocurrency rose above $40 thousand, but quickly returned back.

Another event that had an impact on the cryptocurrency market was the news about the Terra project. Unexpectedly, the popular TerraUS stablecoin rapidly collapsed, its exchange price was much less than the declared $ 1. At the same time, it is known that the stablecoin was provided by other digital assets, including bitcoin.

In addition to bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies have also fallen in price. The Ethereum exchange rate today is located at $1909.35 (the daily minimum is $1720.58). The cost of Binance Coin has lost 26%, XRP and Solana have become cheaper by 28% and 35%, respectively. The overall valuation of the cryptocurrency market decreased by 18.5% to $1.2 trillion.

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May 16. Gold fell below $1,800 for the first time since the beginning of February

Today, the price of gold fell below the psychological level of $1,800 for the first time since the beginning of February. The daily low was fixed at $1,785.40 per troy ounce. The current quote for the precious metal is $1,815.87.

Analysts note that at the end of the past week, the price of gold fell by 3.9%, a record pace since June 2021.

Experts say that the main reason for the decline in quotes is the strong dollar and the growing yield of bonds, because against this background, gold, which does not bring interest income, loses its attractiveness in the eyes of investors.

The ICE currency index, which shows the dynamics of the dollar against six major world currencies, is down about 0.15% on Monday after rising to a 20-year high last Friday.

July futures for silver, meanwhile, are growing in price – up to $ 21.465 per ounce. Moreover, last week silver finished falling by 6.2%, the maximum since the end of January.

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May 17. Unemployment in Britain in the first quarter fell to the lowest since 1974​​​​​​​

According to statistics from the National Statistical Office (ONS) of Great Britain, unemployment, calculated according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization (ILO), in January-March 2022 fell to 3.7%, which was the lowest since December 1974.

In the period from December 2021 to February 2022, unemployment was 3.8%. Economists expected the indicator to remain unchanged.

ONS data indicate that the employment rate in the country continued to grow in April. The number of jobs increased by 121 thousand last month and reached 29.5 million, and the number of open vacancies reached a record 1.295 million.

Analysts of the department note that for the first time since the calculations, the number of unemployed turned out to be less than the number of vacancies.

The average salary of Britons in the first quarter of 2022 increased by 4.2% in annual terms. At the same time, adjusted for inflation, salaries decreased by 1.2%.

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May 18. Johnson Matthey: palladium market may face a deficit in 2022​​​​​​​

According to the review of the world's largest producer of materials for autocatalysts, the British company Johnson Matthey, the palladium market in 2022 may become scarce against the backdrop of a decrease in the output of the metal in South Africa and the risk of disruption in supplies from Russia.

The palladium market was already in deficit in 2020 (about 650 koz), but in 2021 the situation has become relatively balanced.

Johnson Matthey fears that in the current environment, Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer, may not be able to supply all of its products to the market. Due to the uncertainty in this matter, it is very difficult to calculate the total supply in the palladium market.

Another major supplier, South Africa, will cut shipments by more than 6% in 2022 compared to 2021, amid depletion of work-in-progress inventories and planned maintenance of processing facilities.

Moreover, the situation in Ukraine created significant supply risks due to Russia's status as the world's largest supplier of palladium and a major producer of platinum and rhodium. At the moment, Russia provided about 28% of the total supply of primary and secondary palladium.

Experts believe that net demand for palladium will grow by 3% in 2022 to 6.9 million ounces. Demand growth will be constrained by weak car production and cost-cutting programs on the part of metal consumers.

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May 19. Tether lost $7 billion: is it the collapse of stablecoins?​​​​​​​

According to CoinGecko, Tether's turnaround offer has dropped from about $83 billion a week ago to less than $76 billion dollars on Tuesday. Investors withdrew more than $7 billion from this stablecoin after it briefly lost its dollar peg.

As you know, Tether is tied to the dollar – it should always cost $1. But last Thursday, its price dropped to 95 cents amid panic over the collapse of a competing token called Terra USD.

Most stablecoins are backed by fiat reserves, which means that they have enough collateral in case users decide to withdraw their funds from them. However, the new generation of «algorithmic» stablecoins (such as Terra USD or UST) have a dollar peg based on a mathematical code.

The loss of the dollar peg drew attention to the problem of reserves behind Tether. When the reserves data were last released, cash accounted for $4.2 billion. Another $34.5 billion consisted of unidentified Treasury bills with a maturity of less than 2 months, and $24.2 billion of assets accounted for commercial securities.

Experts note that the destabilization of tokens has worried regulators in the United States and Europe. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of risks to financial stability if stablecoins continue to grow unchecked. At the same time, she urged lawmakers to adopt laws regulating this sector by the end of 2022.

France is also concerned about the situation in the cryptocurrency market, calling it a «wake-up call» for global regulators. According to the governor of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Gallo, cryptocurrencies can destroy the financial system, especially stablecoins, if they are not regulated. As a result, the European Union plans to subject stablecoins to strict regulatory oversight through new rules known as Crypto Asset Market Regulation or MiCA.

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