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Date : 1st June 2021.

Market Update – June 1 – USD Back under pressure.



Market News Today – USD weighed into the new month. USDIndex down into close under 90.00 at 89.75 now. RBA – No Change and no fuss – although they did highlight the improving jobs market, concern over housing price surge and the Covid outbreak in Victoria – AUD been a good performer along with GBP over night. Asian markets positive at 1-month highs, positive PMI data from JPY & CNY and AUD Housing data, lifted sentiment. Oil up ahead of OPEC+ meeting (not expected to discuss output beyond July and wants to wait and see what happens with Iran) “sources”. Brent over $70.00, USOil at $67.65 and 12 week highs. GOLD bid by inflation worries & weaker USD – trades at $1913, next key resistance $1922-5.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – Holidays in the U.K. and the U.S. made for a very slow start to the week yesterday. Investors will be back today but trading so far has still been muted. The June 10-year Bund future is down -5 ticks, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.62% in catch up trade. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and down -0.3% respectively, while U.S. futures are posting fractional gains. Further indications of strengthening growth are also accompanied by lingering inflation concerns and of course tapering jitters. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.2233, while Cable has lifted to 1.4227

Today – EZ, UK, US Final Manufacturing PMI, EZ Flash CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Quarles, Brainard, BoE’s Bailey and JMMC/OPEC+ meetings. Earnings from ZOOM.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.25%) rallied from near 16- week lows on Friday’s close at 0.6920 yesterday to close at 0.6950. Rallied again today to 0.6977 ahead of RBA, since cooled to support at 0.6960. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55.00 and now neutral, MACD histogram & signal line choppy, remain over 0 line from below. Stochs. moving lower out of OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0041.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd June 2021.

Market Update – June 2 – USD off lows.



Market News Today – USD off lows but remains pressured. USDIndex down to 89.63 yesterday back to 89.90 now. Good PMI data and a beat for EU CPI (up to 2.0%) will focus minds at the ECB – and a strong US Manufacturing PMI will add to the “to talk taper or not” at the FED. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in July (USOil dipped from $68.60 to $67.35). US Markets closed flat (USA500 -2 to 4202); Zoom Earnings & profits beat, outlook trimmed, AMC rallied 22% after $250m investment. Asian markets are mixed. Overnight a significant beat for AUD GDP and revisions sent Aussie lower, as positive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr sent NZD lower. German Retail sales a huge miss (-5.5% vs -2.4%) as lockdowns bite, EUR 1.2212 from 1.2225. GOLD dipped from $1916 yesterday to under $1900 now.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks at 169.96, the September Treasury future little changed, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now unchanged at 1.61%, after the paper erased overnight losses. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and US futures are also posting fractional gains, but it looks like a cautious start to the day, with investors still digesting yesterday’s data round ahead of the Beige Book for the next FED meeting.

Today – CB Speak day – US Private Oil Inventories, RBA’s Debelle, Bullock, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, Buba’s Weidmann, Fed’s Harker, Evans, Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.37%) rallied from under 20-day moving average yesterday and a dip to 1.9470 earlier, over PP and R1 to 1.9580. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 64.75 and rising, MACD signal line rising (under 0 line) however, histogram has broken over. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.0140.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd June 2021.

Market Update – June 3 – Standing By for Jobs Data.



Market News Today – USD grinds higher awaiting jobs data. USDIndex spiked to 90.20 yesterday back to 90.00 now. Equity markets edged out gains (USA500 +6 to 4208). AMC rallied 95% after Tuesday’s +22% after $250m investment. Asian markets higher, ASX200 at ATH, USOil over $69.00 following OPEC+ deal. Overnight Chinese Services PMI miss, AUD Retail Sales in line and Harker talked of “low rates for longer”, Beige Book “moderate pace of expansion”. Suga to hold snap election after Olympics, Biden progresses Infra talks with Republicans & offers incentives to boost vaccination rate, UK 75% of adults at least one vaccination. EUR 1.2186, JPY 109.80, GBP 1.4150. GOLD dipped from $1909 earlier to under $1895 now

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now up 0.3 bp at 1.59%, after the paper pared earlier gains. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2%, while U.S. futures are narrowly mixed, with overall trading still sluggish and muted as investors wait for another trigger, with the focus now on US payroll numbers tomorrow. Tapering musings seem to be getting louder and while ECB’s Lagarde stressed late on Wednesday that the central bank will maintain favourable financing conditions through the crisis, that would undoubtedly still be the case if monthly purchase volumes under PEPP were scaled back to the levels seen early in the year.

Today – EZ, UK and US Services and Composite Final PMIs, US ADP, Weekly Claims, ISM Services PMI, DoEs, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Bostic, Kaplan, Harker, Quarles.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.38%) has moved down to test yesterdays lows at 0.7205 (S1) earlier, (last Thursday was trading over 0.7300). faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 32.40 and filing heading to OS zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling again and have been below 0 line since Tuesday. Stochs. still moving lower and into OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th June 2021.

Market Update – June 4 – Dollar bounces ahead of NFP.



Market News Today – USD sprang to life after strong ADP (978k vs 645k), Weekly Claims (385k vs 400k) and ISM Services PMI data (64 vs 63). USDIndex has rallied (+0.8%) to 90.57 after closing over 20-day moving average for the first time since April 7. Equity markets sank (USA100 hit hardest; -1%) (USA500 -0.4%, -15pts to 4192, as VIX rallied 1.1%). 10yr Yields have rallied to 1.632%. Asian markets also lower. All eyes on NFP at 12:30 GMT. USOil down from $69.00 to $69.70 (following a much bigger inventory drawdown of 5.1mb vs 1.2 expected ) Overnight Stronger rebound for Japanese household spending, Fedspeak remained Dovish lead by Williams “not concerned by inflation outlook”. Biden offers 15% min. rate for Corp. Tax and 28% top has post NFP press conference scheduled (14:15 GMT). EUR 1.2107, JPY 1109.25, GBP 1.4100. GOLD (& other commodities (partic. Copper) slumped on the stronger USD – touched $1855, closed at $1870 and holds there now.

European Open – The Sep 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate stabilised. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally lower, as are US futures. Strong data releases and tapering musings saw yields moving higher yesterday and investors will likely hold back ahead of the key US payroll numbers later today. It seems increasingly likely that central banks will start to rein in monetary support as fiscal stimulus is underway and the growth outlook improves, and expectations are that the ECB will start reining in asset purchases over the summer, in a flexible manner that allows the central bank to keep a close eye on spreads and step in if necessary.

Today – EZ and UK Construction PMIs, US and Canadian Jobs Reports, US Factory Orders, Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, Villeroy, de Cos, PBoC’s Yi Gang, BoJ’s Kuroda, SNB’s Jordan & RBNZ’s Orr



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.26%) has moved up from 15-week lows yesterday (0.6907) to rally to 0.6936. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 54 and spiking higher, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line from yesterday. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th June 2021.

Market Update – June 7 – Dollar subdued following jobs and G7.



Market News Today – The markets characterized the May US jobs report as Goldilocks –neither too hot, nor too cold. Indeed it was just right for bond and stock bulls. Treasuries rallied with a burst of short covering as the smaller than expected headline job increase pushed a Fed tapering further out the calendar. The steep drop in yields was very favorable to Wall Street, and especially the USA100. Today stock markets traded narrowly mixed amid disappointing trade data out of China and with investors keeping a close eye on comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen, who urged President Biden to press ahead with spending plans ($4 trillion/year), even if they may fuel inflation, while saying that a “slightly higher” interest rate environment would be a “plus”. China trade data showed weaker than expected export growth, but a jump in imports to the highest since 2010.

G7 – agreed to a global minimum tax of at least 15% on multinational companies but faces a rocky path to implementation. (The Biden administration could win support for its US tax increases). The deal give countries more authority to tax the profits of digital companies like Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. that dominate global markets but pay relatively little tax in many countries where they operate.

European Open – The Sep 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.57%. EGBs are also likely to move up from the lows seen in the wake of the US payroll number on Friday. With fiscal support being stepped up and the recovery strengthening, the pressure on central banks to take the foot off the accelerator is getting stronger and flexible QE schedules may become more of a thing especially for the ECB, which will be meeting on Thursday. The ECB is expected to move away from its commitment to “significantly” higher monthly PEPP purchases. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.2% and up 0.04% respectively, while US futures are fractionally lower.

Covid will remain on the regional radar again this week, as cases in several countries continue to rise, causing economic restrictions and factory closures. Thailand and Vietnam have been hit by fresh outbreaks, while Malaysia last week put a total lockdown in place. The restrictions will ultimately impact incoming data in the region.

Today – Today’s slate includes Japan’s Q1 GDP, current account, PPI and the MoF business outlook survey. Supply is a focal point in the week ahead with the $120 bln in coupon auctions. Today‘s rally in Treasuries reflects little fear. Ironically, the richening may work to diminish demand. Markets will also digest the G7 agreement on tax payments of big firms today.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.49%) has moved up from its 2-month floor at 0.8560. Faster MAs remains aligned higher, RSI 68 and spiking higher, MACD signal line and histogram rising but signal remain at 0. Stochs turning lower from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0041.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th June 2021.

Market Update – June 9 – Markets holding patterns.



Market News Today – Global bonds were in rally mode Tuesday, with early support from a flight to safety after several government, social media, and news websites went down. Though later determined to be a problem with a US cloud computing firm, the recent hacks of major companies had left investors anxious. The widespread internet outages spooked investors following a series of hacks in recent weeks that brought down the Colonial Pipeline and JBS.

Treasuries benefited from a flight to safety, and then a short covering bid just after the open, sending longer dated yields sharply lower, while Eurozone spreads narrowed. Today however the 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.8 bp at 1.53% and bonds in Australia and New Zealand outperformed in catch up trade. CPI readings out of China came in lower than anticipated at 1.3% y/y, but PPI inflation was the highest since 2008 at 9.0%. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.1% and down -0.1% respectively. US futures are little changed.

Oil prices meanwhile continued to move higher as confidence in the recovery strengthens. US officials said they have recovered $2.3m worth of the ransom payment made to hackers who shut down the Colonial Pipeline last month and disrupted the country’s fuel supplies for several days.

Officials are apparently considering imposing a cap on the price of thermal coal to contain high energy costs.

World Bank projects global growth at a 5.6% clip this year, a big upward boost from the 4.1% clip that had been estimated in January. That would be the fastest pace of expansion since the 6.6% clip from 1973 and results from the global distribution of vaccines and massive stimulus measures. The global economy contracted -3.5% last year.

Today – The event risk for tomorrow’s ECB meeting is that Lagarde will sound less dovish than markets seem to be expecting, as strengthening growth and usually quieter trading conditions over the summer will argue for increased flexibility on PEPP purchases going forward. With the ECB meeting and US inflation data looming tomorrow, stock markets are likely to be pretty static today, with indices still hovering at very high levels.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) – Sugar prices provided clear positive trades yesterday to move away from the 17.70 level, which supports the continuation of the 11-day rally, motivated by positively configured MACD and RSI. Key resistance is the 18.20 high on May 12.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th June 2021.

Market Update – June 10 – It was all about Treasuries and still is!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – It was all about Treasuries again as yields continue to drop, and despite the rates tumbling to the lowest since March 3, ahead of the CPI data there was stellar demand for the 10-year auction.

10-year Treasury yields have dropped back a further -1.0 bp below 1.50% for the first time since March. Bearish positioning in Treasuries seems to be more extreme than initially thought. Bond markets across the Asia-Pacific region also found buyers, leaving the 10-year JGB rate down -0.1 bp at 0.060% and Australia’s 10-year rate down -8.9 bp at 1.48%.The September 10-year Bund future is up 7 ticks, while in cash markets the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped -1.2 bp to 1.48%.

[img]https://themarketear.com/images/019cad5b93be0612be0b667d4c74797d[/img]
Short covering and technicals remained big factors behind the move as bond bears threw in the towel on bearish inflation and Fed tapering bets.

Stock markets have been more cautions but benefited from the drop in yields, and indexes are mostly higher, while today the stocks are still in green with GER30 and UK100 futures up 0.1% and 0.3% at the moment and US futures also posting fractional gains, with indexes already at very high levels. JPN225 has gained 0.3%, the ASX is up 0.5% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are 0.4% and 0.9% higher on the day.

Today – The ECB meeting takes center stage. The ECB is expected to keep the overall policy framework unchanged on Thursday, but review monthly purchase volumes under the PEPP program, which were “significantly” enhanced through Q2 as Europe fought with another surge of infections and a slow vaccine rollout. The US calendar will be of interest today, with the key May CPI report due.



Biggest FX Mover – GBPJPY drops to the 154 level, after it opened the day below the 20-day MA. It has posted a reversal from 156 highs since the end of May. Next key Support is at 153.45, which is a confluence of May’s floor and lower BB pattern.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th June 2021.

Market Update – June 11 – Market relaxed on inflation fears.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Gilt yields closed higher after stronger than expected US inflation numbers, while Eurozone bonds, in particular BTPs, got a boost from the ECB announcement, which affirmed the commitment to keep monthly PEPP purchases “significantly” higher than at the start of the year. The ECB is essentially in wait and see mode and seems to be focusing very much on the outlook for the travel and tourism sector against the background of new virus variants. Central banks successfully convinced markets that the spike in inflation is transitory and after the spike in US inflation yesterday, the Eurozone May inflation round will likely look tame by comparison.

In Asia, Australia and New Zealand bonds found buyers, but in South Korea bonds extended losses after comments from the central bank’s chief economist on normalizing policy. For now the factors driving the jump look transitory, but there are some lingering concerns that it could become entrenched and there was talk that central bankers willdiscuss tapering at the Jackson Hole meeting over the summer.

In Europe, the bunch of data releases out of the UK at the start of the session was largely bond friendly, despite monthly GDP being a tad weaker than expected at 2.3% and industrial and manufacturing production unexpectedly dropping -0.3% and -1.3% respectively. The visible trade deficit meanwhile remains sizeable at around GBP 11 bln.

In FX markets the Yen struggled and USDJPY lifted to 109.42, while the EUR strengthened and EURUSD is at 1.2192, while Cable is little changed at 1.4182. Stock markets mostly managed slight gains as markets continued to digest the uptick in US inflation. JPN225 is up 0.04%, GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively and US futures are also higher, led by a 0.11% rise in the USA100. USOIL is at $70.14 per barrel.



Biggest FX Mover – USA100 just a breath below 14k. Currently the rally has stalled, with fast MAs flattened along with RSI at 63 while Stochastic is sloping lower pointing to 20 barrier. ATR (H1) at 17.70 and ATR (D) at 142.70.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th June 2021.

Market Update – June 14 – USD & Equities hold onto gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Markets closed flat to higher on Friday close to ATHs. Dollar rose into close and holds its bid today. EURUSD is little changed at 1.2106, Cable at 141.13 and JPY 109.70. Yields fell to 3-mth lows at 1.428% on Friday. Many Asian markets closed today; no data in the US calendar and Eurozone releases focusing on April production data. G7 proposed 1 billion vaccine doses for LIC, a global infrastructure plan to rival China’s Belt & Road 25 yr scheme, a charge against human rights and more talk on the climate crisis ahead of COP26 in November. USOil rallied to test $71.00 and Gold collapse continued down to $1858.

Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday (18:00 GMT) & the FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not happening until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin.

European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, and US futures are also posting gains of around 0.1-0.2%. The G7 rebuke to China was met with a quick rebuttal. The U.K. meanwhile is set to push the full lifting of virus restrictions back into July against the background of a fresh rise in case numbers. ECB President Lagarde meanwhile is quoted by Politico as saying that its too early to debate the end of PEPP as officials need to really anchor the economy. The results of the ECB’s strategic policy review meanwhile are hoped to be on the table by the end of summer.

Today – EZ Industrial Production, ECB’s Schnable and BoE’s Bailey



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.40%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, a close below 200-day MA at 19-week low 0.6395. Breached 0.9400, Pivot Point and 20-hr MA today, 50-Hr MA at 0.6425. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 52 still neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line from last week. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th June 2021.

Market Update – June 15 – Equities at record highs.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – US Markets closed at record highs (USA500 4255) and Asian stocks followed but closed mixed after key markets returned after long weekend. Dollar holds on to gains (USDIndex 90.40). EURUSD (1.2125) and Cable (1.4115) little changed. JPY holds the break of 110.00. Yields off 3-mth lows and up to recover 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $71.35 before cooling under $71.00 and the Gold collapse spiked as low as $1845, back to $1865 now. Copper off -2% yesterday too. Overnight – AUD Housing inflation steeper than expected, Bailey talked digital currencies & US passed the grim 600k Covid deaths milestone. Strong UK Jobs data, Claims, Earnings and Unemployment all beat expectations.

Week Ahead – All eyes on Wednesday’s (18:00 GMT) FOMC Announcement & Press Conference. Markets expecting more dovishness with “talk about talking about Tapering” not expected to happen until the July or even September meeting. BOJ & SNB also on the stump. Biden meets Putin Wednesday after NATO summit.

European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, US futures are posting gains of around 0.1%, after another record on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to be putting inflation concerns aside for now although mutterings that there could be more lasting shifts in prices are getting louder. For now though the focus is on the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The U.K. pushed out the date for the full lifting of Covid restrictions to July 19.

Today – Empire State Manu. PPI, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, ECB’s Lane, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Government supply from the UK, Germany & US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) USDNZD (+0.26%) has bounced from a big down day on Friday, at 0.7115 and a floor yesterday at 0.7130, to move over 0.7150 and clear of the 20-hr MA. Next resistance 0.7180. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 58 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising and testing 0 line. H1 ATR 0.00072, Daily ATR 0.0060.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th June 2021.

Market Update – June 16 – FX Markets waiting for FOMC.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – US Markets closed down from new ATH’s (USA500 -8.5 4246) Mixed US data BIG miss for Retail Sales but PPI was stronger than expected. Dollar awaits FOMC – FX markets moribund. (USDIndex 90.44, EURUSD 1.2125, and Cable 1.4090. JPY holds the break of 110.00 & Yields the break of 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $72.50 following API inventory drawdowns. Gold dipped to $1850 and back to $1860 now. – Biggest move – VIX.F rallied over 13% to 19.42. Overnight – JPY data weaker than expected but a huge jump in Exports to a 41 year high. – UK Inflation (2.1%)- stronger than expected following big rise in jobs data yesterday.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are U.S. futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has moved up 0.5 bp to 1.497%, as markets wait for the FOMC announcement today. The big question will be whether the Fed signals that it is starting to think about tapering and investors are likely to trade cautiously into the event. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.019% and 0.153% respectively. US futures narrowly mixed, with the Nasdaq future outperforming and up 0.5%.

Today – Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Decision and Fed Chair Powell, US-Russia Summit, UK Economic Update (Treasury), ECB’s Elderson, de Guindos



Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+12.5%) gapped on open to 19.42 following a test of the pre-pandemic low on Monday at 16.00. Closed yesterday at 17.17. Next resistance 20.00, support 20-day MA at 18.65. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB and flat at 78, MACD signal line and histogram rising and significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.3300 Daily ATR 1.14.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th June 2021.

Market Update – June 17 – BIG Surprise from the FOMC Dots.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – FED no rate change and $120bn bond buying to continue. BUT BIG hawkish surprise with plans for 2 x 0.25% rate rises in 2023 (13/18 votes), it had been 2024 and even 7/18 see rate rises in 2022. Statement increased 2021 growth to 7% from 6.5%, and inflation to 3.4% from 2.4% 3 months ago. “risks to the economic outlook remain“, rising inflation was “largely reflecting transitory factors”, recovery “significantly” dependent upon the next steps of the virus. We will taper when economy has reached “substantial further progress” will do what we can to “avoid a market reaction”. Next meeting July 27/28.

USD (91.43), Yields (1.57%) and the VIX (20.46) all rallied.
Stocks (-0.54%), Commodities(-2.0%+), EM currencies & Oil($71.10) all sank.
Biden-Putin – both talked tough and of a “constructive” first Summit. The thorny issues of Nuclear Weapons, (my arsenal is bigger than yours) Cybersecurity (leave us alone, we never touched you) Geopolitics (where you go we will follow) were all on the agenda.

Overnight – Big beats for AUD Jobs (115.2 k vs 30.5K) & Unemployment (5.1% vs 5.5%) & NZD GDP (1.65% vs 0.5%) data.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -63 ticks in catch up trade, while Treasuries have started to stabilise after the post-FOMC sell off. The slightly more hawkish stance at the Fed and stellar data out of Australia and New Zealand overnight seems to signal that markets need to prepare for a gradual withdrawal of stimulus. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.3% and -0.4% respectively, US futures are also under pressure, after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight and a lower close on Wall Street. ECB’s Lane – “don’t be premature with assumptions over PEPP tapering” September meeting important but “a lot of data still to to come” before December.

Today – Norges Bank, SNB and CBRT rate decisions, Eurozone CPI (final), US Weekly Claims, Philly Fed, CB Leading Index & ECB’s Elderson.



Biggest Mover post FED @ (06:30 GMT) XAGUSD (-2.51%) turned lower again, ahead of FED after rejecting 27.80. Moved significantly below 27.00 to test of 26.56 in immediate aftermath, closed at 26.95. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 30.35 and testing OB zone, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.210 Daily ATR 0.603.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th June 2021.

Market Update – June 18 – The FED still dominates.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD holds on to gains (USDIndex test 92.00) US Equities mixed – (USA100 +0.87% & new ATH, USA30 -0.62%). BoJ left policy unchanged and stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy setting & extended COVID funding. JPY Inflation came in better than expected to with the CORE reading turning positive (just) for the first time since April 2020. Asian shares up but closing lower for the week. Round Number Friday – EUR down to1.1900, JPY 110.00 and Cable 1.3900. 10 yr Yields 1.51% but the spreads between US Corporate debt and US Government debt is at a 10-year low¹ – and could explain the tech rally yesterday following the Hawkish FED. Gold dived to $1770 (open the week at $1875; -5.6%) trades at $1785 now. USOil

Overnight – Big beat for German PPI (1.5% vs 0.7%, & 0.8% prev.) and big miss for UK Retail Sales (-1.4% vs 1.5%, & prev: 9.2%)

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower and in cash markets Eurozone bonds are also finding some support, although the U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 0.7 bp to 1.51% overnight. Stocks traded narrowly mixed across Asia and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also little changed, while US futures are slightly higher, led by a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ. With growth stabilising the tide is slowly turning, although it is clear that central banks will be taking a very, very cautious approach on tapering, with policy set to remain extremely accommodative for a long time to come. It seems unlikely that the BoE will break the line when it meets next week. – Action Economics

Today – Little new news today – EU Econ Ministers meeting & Fed’s Kashkari, its also Quadruple Witching Friday (Quarterly Index & Stock Options and Futures Contracts all expire – 3rd Friday of the Quarter)



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.59%) turned lower again, has been under 20-day moving average since June 3 from 78.76. Breached 78.00 yesterday and 77.00 today. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 24 & OB, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.620.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 21st June 2021.

Market Update – June 21 – USD remains Bid, Equities and Yields lower.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD holds onto gains from last week. USDIndex over 92.00. US Equities lost over 1.5% (USA500 -55pts to 4166 (-1.31%), Dow -1.58%) & Asian markets (save China) very weak (Nikkei -3.3%). US 10 yr yields @ 1.39% (4 week low) & 30yr yields under 2% (4 mth low). JPY, AUD & NZD tad stronger to open. EUR down to 1.1875, JPY 110.00 & Cable 1.3815. Gold dived to $1760 on Friday back to $1778 now. USOil spiked down to $69.80 on Friday back to $72.00 now, over the weekend Iranian Nuclear talks broke down & Iran elected a very hardliner new president. US Senate coming together on much reduced $1 trillion Infrastructure – Biden unhappy. Bullard talked of tapering & Kashkari of no rate rises until 2024.

Week Ahead – BOE Super Thursday, Powell Testifies to Congress Tuesday and a week of PMI data. US lots of Fedspeak has GDP, CPE, Housing and US Durable Goods.

European Open – Markets continue to adjust the changed rate outlook, with the hawkish turn at the Fed weighing on shorter dating bonds, while bringing down rates at the long end. The September 10-year Bund future is up 33 ticks, US futures are outperforming. Reflation trades are being unwound and while the actual lift off in rates is still a long way off, even in the US, it is clear that the period of ever rising monetary support is coming to an end. Stocks are struggling in this environment and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.9% and -0.7% respectively. US futures are also in the red, after Japanese markets led a sell off overnight.

Today – ECB weekly bond purchases, Williams, Bullard, Kaplan and ECB’s Lagarde.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.51%) recovered from last weeks sell-off (0.7150 – 0.6925) pushed to 0.6972 earlier, breaking 20Hr MA. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 50 and starting to rise but remains from neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0014 Daily ATR 0.0071.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd June 2021.

Market Update – June 22 – Signs of Volatility.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Volatility back – Equities rebound, USD slips from recent highs but USDIndex holds at 92.00. US Equities recover (USA500 +58pts to 4224 (+1.40%), Asian markets also recover. US 10 yr yields bounce too; 1.49%. EUR under 1.1900, from 1.1920, JPY up to 110.50 & Cable back to 1.3900. Gold holds at 1780, USOil spiked to $73.80 (Oct 2018 high). UKOil over $75.00 and April 2019 high) on the back of the Iranian news, OPEC still not talking production increases and growing global demand. Biden making positive noises over much reduced $1 trillion Infrastructure Bill.

CB-Speak Powell at sub-committee inflation has “increased notably” labor market “continue to improve,” Williams, “US economy hasn’t improved enough, inflation will hit 3%” Bullard “strong labor market” as the country’s (GDP) is observing a growth of almost 7%. Lagarde the ECB will keep a “very close eye on wage growth” she was also more optimistic on the outlook.

Week Ahead – BOE Super Thursday, Powell Testifies to Congress 18:00 GMT Tuesday and a week of PMI data. US lots of Fedspeak has GDP, CPE, Housing and US Durable Goods.

European Open – Sep 10-year Bund future down 8 ticks, pretty much matching Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures both up 0.3% & US futures also slightly higher after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. Markets are getting over the Fed’s hawkish tilt, as officials continue to stress that inflation will be transitory, suggesting that any tapering will be very gradual and dependent on economic developments.

Today – EUR Consumer Confidence (Flash) & US Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Powell, Daly, Mester, ECB’s Lane & Schnabel.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.35%) yesterday’s rally from 0.7475 stalled at 0.7545 and has declined to 0.7520 today. Under PP and 20Hr MA. Next support 0.7500 and S1 at 0.7494. Faster MAs moved lower, RSI 46 and neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising but weak break of 0 line. Stochs OS since 20Ma break. H1 ATR 0.0010 Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd June 2021.

Market Update – June 23 – Dollar Dips & Equities Stronger post Powell.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Equities rebound (USA100 +0.79% to new ATH) & USD slips again (USDIndex 91.80). Catalyst was Powell comments “inflation alone would not be enough to prompt rate rises” “we will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.” Asian markets also recovered, AUD & JPY PMIs missed expectations. US 10 yr yields fell as USD cooled bounce again too; 1.47%. EUR holds over 1.1900 at 1.1925, JPY up again to 110.80 & Cable (5 years since Brexit vote today) up to 1.3945. Gold rotates at $1780, USOil down from Monday’s spike to $73.80 but holds over $72.00 as $100 Brent gossip swirls¹ & OPEC tests the waters on production increases.

CB-Speak Daly said bank was right to talk about slowing the pace of asset purchases, but economy is “not yet here” for such a decision, & even talk of changing rates is not on the table. Officials are looking to Fall data to get more clarity on the status of the economy & its developments. Inflation could approach 3% in the near future & the data is expected to remain volatile. Mester – inflation expectations have risen, but it has not yet reached an alarming level – it will hit between 3% to 3.5%, but after that it will drop to the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target. A better picture of the labor force will be seen in September, after schools reopen & increased unemployment benefits end.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, as are US futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.019% and -0.050% respectively, while US futures are fractionally higher, after Fed Chairman Powell managed to sooth nerves yesterday with calming words on the rate outlook and by reiterating that inflation pressures will be transitory.

Today – EZ, UK and US PMIs (Flash), ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos; Fed’s Bowman, Bostic, Rosengren, and supply from Germany and the US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.29%) First down day in 9 yesterday to close at 1.9845. Rallied on open over PP and 50Hr MA (1.9985) to 1.9900. Next resistance R1 1.9931. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 55 but neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising weakly & remain below 0 line. Stochs declined from OB & now neutral. H1 ATR 0.0023 Daily ATR 0.0122.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th June 2021.

Market Update – June 24 – Tepid Markets ahead of big data day.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Sideways Wednesday into tepid Thursday, ahead of a busy day. USA100 +0.13% to new ATH again, TSLA +5%, Dow & S&P500 flat, USD dips & recovers, USDIndex 91.80. Global PMIs overall positive (partic. Manu.) New Home Sales big miss with prices at record highs. Overnight Asian markets also tepid. US 10yr yields 1.49%. EUR holds at 1.1925, JPY spiked to 111.10 (now 110.85) & Cable spiked to 1.4000 now down to 1.3960. Gold rotates at $1775, USOil spiked to $73.25 after inventories drawdown was twice as large as expected. Holds over $72.60 now. Much reduced (1.5 tn) bipartisan Infrastructure plan “agreed” & being presented to Biden today, possible re-start of Iran nuclear talks next week. Kaplan & Bostic both hawkish & expecting Inflation to “stick”.

European Open – September 10-year Bund future fractionally higher, US futures also little changed, while in cash markets US 10-yr rate has lifted 0.5 bp to 1.49%. DAX & FTSE 100 futures marginally higher, US futures slightly outperforming, but overall moves have been very tepid so far.

Today – German Ifo, US Initial/Continued Jobless Claims, GDP (Final, Q1), Durable Goods and New Zealand Trade Balance, BoE Rate Decision, Fed’s Williams, Barkin, Bostic, Bullard, Harker, Kaplan; ECB’s Schnabel, Panetta, and supply from the US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.23%) Day 4 of strong rebound from 0.6395 close on Friday. rallied to 0.6485 (R1) today. R2 sits at 0.6505. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 67 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 0.0006 Daily ATR 0.0045.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th June 2021.

Market Update – June 25 – USD slips, Stocks at new all-time highs.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Dollar a tad weaker, but holds onto gains, USDIndex 91.80, USA100 & 500 at ATHs. Agreed $1.2 tn Infrastructure plan lifts sentiment. However, mixed US data yesterday, Claims missed, GDP confirmed at 6.4% & Durable Goods missed. All US Banks passed stress tests late in the day. BoE – no change & no hawkish surprises but looks like tapering measures will start after the summer. GBP hit. Overnight Asian markets also bid, NZD bounces and JPY weakest. US 10yr yields 1.49%. EUR holds at 1.1950, JPY under 111.00 to 110.75 & Cable tests under 1.3900 now back to 1.3925. Gold still rotates at $1780/75, USOil Holds over $72.50 now.

European Open – German GfK consumer confidence much better than expected at -0.3 vs -6.9 in the previous month. The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, as are US futures. Gilts led a rally in EGBs yesterday after the BoE affirmed its accommodative policy stance, but there could be a slight pullback as markets continue to digest the statement. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures.

Today – US PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Consumption, Fed’s Williams, Rosengren, Mester, Kashkari; ECB’s de Cos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.25%) Rallied from test of 200HR MA yesterday at 0.7745. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 65.7 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 0.0007 Daily ATR 0.0045.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th June 2021.

Market Update – June 28 – Fear is back even in Summer.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Wall Street was mixed on Friday, with the USA30 outperforming as reflation trades are back on. Supporting the rally was a blowout earnings report from Nike. The company saw record quarterly US sales, and beat on the bottom line as well, seeing the USA30 member surge to all-time highs, gaining over 15%. The USA500 closed at record highs, adding 0.34%, up 14 points to 4,281. Yields pushed higher last week, as growth optimism dominated, but investors are keeping a weary eye on virus developments amid the emergence of new more infectious strains.

Today: It was a very slow start to the week for equities, with markets across the Asia-Pacific region hardly moving as investors weighed Covid developments and the outlook for central bank policy. The 10-year Treasury yield is unchanged at 1.5%. Equity markets have traded narrowly mixed, as a new rise in Covid-19 infections across Asia and concern over more potent strains weighed on sentiment. In Malaysia the nationwide lockdown was extended, while Greater Sydney was put under stricter restrictions in a bid to contain outbreaks. In Hong Kong the morning session was cancelled thanks to a rain storm warning. BoJ was confident of recovery at June meeting the summary of discussions showed. The sense was that accelerating vaccination programs would prop up the economy. At the same time inflation pressures were still judged to be benign given the fragile recovery.

Forex Market: JPN225 is currently down -0.1%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.1% at the moment and US futures are posting similar gains. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar drifted lower, USDJPY dropped to 110.61 while the EUR steadied between 1.1920-1.1970 for a 5th day. The Pound strengthened across the board and cable is off last week’s lows, currently at 1.3909. The USOIL topped tto $73.69. Gold prices slipped to a 1-week low on Monday, weighed down by a bounce in the dollar and mixed signals from the FED on monetary policy tightening despite tame inflation data.

Monday’s Calendar – Fed’s Williams, Quarles and ECB’s Panetta along with Labor data and Retail Trade fom Japan.



Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.34%) Rallied to the upper range level at 1785.77. Faster MAs currently flattened, RSI 54 and slipping, MACD signal line and histogram close to 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 3.4457, Daily ATR 27.3871.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th June 2021.

Market Update – June 29 – High Valuations, End of Quarter, Caution.



Sentiment remains cautious and stocks under pressure, but Treasury yields tumbled lower on the day, recovering all of last week’s losses and then some. The 10- and 30-year yields fell over 5 bps to the 1.4698% and 2.0857% areas, respectively, on the day, with the break in key technical levels of 1.50% and 2.10% supporting the richening. Concern about the spread of the more infectious Delta variant of the virus is weighing on confidence as governments try to limit the impact.

Equities remain mixed, with the USA100 holding in record territory, and keeping the bulk of its gains. The USA500 continues to idle on either side of unchanged, while the USA30 underperforms, losing over 200 points early on, then recovering slightly in afternoon trade. The USA30 components Chevron off over -3% as oil prices faded, while Boeing shed -3% after being told certification of its new long range aircraft would not come until at least 2023. The energy and financial sectors were the biggest laggards, while utilities and tech paced winning sectors.

Valuations remain a question for further stock market gains, with the USA500 P/E ratio the highest in over 10-years.

The charts that matter 
“Significant long-term charts with historical price data back to 1950 remain very powerful and important.

1. The 2 first weeks of July are the best weeks of the year
2. “we are here” – USA500 is just starting if you look at the seasonality pattern since 1985
3. After the 2 first weeks of July, USA500 and Russell tend to “chill”, while NDX continues moving higher, but above all, note the USA100 pattern starting now
4. Exposure in FAANMGs is close to record lows
5. Tech’s range break out has been extremely powerful, and the candle today shows just how strong this momentum remains”

[img]https://themarketear.com/images/740827c0bfe92c8c1c20a876a4b35311[/img]
[img]https://themarketear.com/images/b320689251299d17ae47b8195d8b9124[/img]

Forex Market: EURUSD is little changed at 1.1907. The Australian and NZ Dollars weaken for second day on low risk appetite, USDJPY steadied to 110.10-60 while the EUR steadied between 1.1920-1.1970 for a 5th day. The Pound declines further with Cable to 1.3857. Gold prices edged lower as USDIndex hovers below 2-month high.

USOIL slid to 3-session lows of $72.63 after printing new trend highs of $74.45 in Asia. The move lower was linked to concerns over rising Covid cases in many parts of Asia, including Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, which prompted some profit taking from 32-month highs. In addition, long positions may be cut ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday, where expectations are for an announced production increase, beginning in August.

Tuesday’s Calendar – Data releases today include Eurozone ESI economic confidence, German June HICP and UK lending data, while US Consumer confidence is also due, but virus headlines will likely dominate.



Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA30 (+0.34%) dipped by more than 0.44% from 34,525 to 34,172 low. Faster MAs and RSI are currently flattened,while MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, all suggesting that the short term decline run out of steam and the asset is consolidating for the time being.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th June 2021.

Market Update – June 30 – Gold at its worst monthly drop.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Jitters over the rapid spread of the more infectious Delta variant seem to be receding and Treasury yields have moved higher overnight, as equity markets across the Asia-Pacific region gained after US shares touched record highs yesterday, but pared gains into the close.

Hopes that vaccines will be effective mean investors are sticking with the recovery story after strong US data yesterday boosted economic optimism.

JPN225 is currently down by 0.13%, with a disappointing contraction in industrial production weighing on sentiment. China official PMI readings also eased, however, the slowing in the pace of expansion is not a surprise given supply chain disruptions around the world, though the data continued to suggest China’s recovery remains on pace. Cyclicals rallied, while Bank stocks were mostly higher following announced dividend increases and stock buybacks. Improved consumer confidence and a year over year surge in home prices supported equities at the margins. Wall Street closed slightly higher yesterday, with indexes touching new highs. GER30 and UK100 futures are also fractionally higher.

UK Q1 GDP revised down to -1.6% q/q in the final reading, from -1.5% q/q previously. The annual rate was confirmed at -6.1% y/y. Private consumption corrected -4.6% q/q, reflecting mainly the impact of a relatively strict lockdown that quarter. Government spending rose 1.5% q/q, while exports slumped -6.1% and imports -13.5%. Investment contracted less than initially feared, but was still down -1.7% q/q, although at this point and with the economy heading for a full re-opening in July and already pretty much on track for a strong rebound thanks to vaccination programs, the Q1 number doesn’t really change the overall picture or outlook.

Forex Market: USDJPY is at 110.46, after the Dollar firmed on haven demand. The Australian and NZ Dollars are under pressure so far, USDJPY has steadied above 110.40 while the EUR steadied above 1.1890. The Pound declined to 1.3810 lows and is currently settled at the 1.3850 area. USOIL meanwhile lifted to USD 73.42 per barrel after an industry report showed US crude stockpiles fell last week, overriding trader and investor concerns about transportation curbs in some countries as COVID-19 cases surge. Gold is down 7.8% so far this month, and heading for its worst monthly drop since November 2016.

Today’s Calendar – Markets are also keeping a close eye on signals from central banks and in particular the Fed, after strong consumer confidence readings out of the US yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on German jobless numbers and of course the preliminary reading for Eurozone June HICP, Canadian GDP and US ADP employment change.



Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD retests the 1,3800 area for a 2nd day in a row wıth faster MAs bullishly crossed and RSI at 37 and pointing lower. MACD signal line and histogram are negatively configured, while Stochastic turned below OS barrier, all suggesting that the short term decline continues.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd July 2021.

Market Update – July 02.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Wall Street was narrowly mixed again overnight, as investors sat on their hands ahead of the upcoming June jobs report. Data on ISM manufacturing, jobless claims, and construction spending was ignored in favor of the more crucial employment numbers on the horizon.


The USA500 did manage another record high, with the USA30 in the green too as value shares were favored. The USA100 was largely flat. Stock markets in Japan and Australia managed to move slightly higher, though, while China bourses sold off with some commentators suggesting that the conclusion of the centennial celebrations for the Communist Party meant increased risks for markets.

In Europe, core exchanges rose, with the UK100 adding 1.25%, and the GER30 rallying 0.47%. Comments from ECB’s Lagarde suggesting that the current cap on dividends and share buybacks for banks could be lifted at the end of September helped underpin sentiment. Also:

Fed’s Harker (non-voter) backs tapering.
ECB’s Weidmann backs symmetrical inflation target for the ECB.
Dovish comments from BoE’s Bailey, who stuck to the view that inflation will be transitory, added support, although they didn’t prevent Gilts from underperforming versus Bunds, with the former up 1.4 bps to 0.728%, and the latter 0.7 bps higher at -0.203%. Hopes that the impact of the rapidly spreading Delta variant won’t prevent the projected re-opening of holiday travel, while also keeping central banks in supportive mode, helped peripheral stock and bond markets.

Forex Market: USDIndex edged up to 92.60, and USDJPY is at 111.65, while the USOIL future is at $75.22per barrel. The Australian and NZ Dollars hold at Q4 2020 lows, while the EUR slipped to 1.1834 from 1.1888. Gold sustains gains at the 1779 area.

As Soc Gen accurately notes, US 2y rates are driving the Dollar. “The challenge for the FX market is that with no rate on the cards for over 12 months, expectations about what the Fed will do are bound to move around with each and every major economic statistic. All eyes, then, are on payroll data and if they come in strong, the dollar bears are going to get squeezed.”

Today’s Calendar – ECB’s Lagarde is scheduled to speak today, but likely to repeat the familiar line that the crisis is not over and support is still necessary. At the same time we will see US labor market data.

US nonfarm payrolls preview: nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 550k in June following increases of 559k in May and 278k in April as there continues to be a big gap between the strength in the recovery and the record high in job openings against the relatively slow return of workers amid various headwinds. We’re also forecasting a 35k jump in factory jobs. The work-week should hold steady at 34.9 while hours worked picks up 0.4%. The unemployment rate is seen dipping to 5.6%. Average hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% as minimum wage workers have been slow to come back. However, the y/y wage gain should surge to 3.5% from 2.0%, with a big boost from base effects.



Significant FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR(+0.54%) extending highs for 2 days in a row, above the June high and the 50% retracement level since the February downleg. MACD lines and RSI are positively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th July 2021.

Market Update – July 5 – USD subdued, Bonds leap & Stocks hold gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – The Dollar weakened, Bonds & Stocks rallied following NFP (850k vs 700k but an uptick for Unemployment & patchy Earnings) and ahead of long weekend. Asian markets follow through overnight – but big miss for Chinese Services PMI’s virus developments and China’s bid to curb the influence of internet giants quells the rally. Yields; the biggest driver – 10yr lost -3.31%, 5yr -4.77% & 30yr -1.97%. USDIndex holds 92.30, USA 500 4352. (Tech stocks lead rally (GOOGL+2.30%) Overnight AUD building approvals weaker but Retail Sales better. EUR 1.1855, JPY down to 111.00 & Cable tests up to 1.3835. Gold still rotates at $1785, USOil Holds over $74.00 at 74.35 as OPEC issues rumble on.

Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is unchanged at -0.24%. Other Eurozone bond markets are underperforming in early trade, while U.S. markets remain closed today for the observance of July 4 Independence Day. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.03% and 0.106% respectively, suggesting a cautious start to trading today. US Stock FUTS in the red so far.

Today – OPEC developments continue as the UAE and Saudi disagree over quotas; – EZ & UK PMIs (Final) ECB speak and US Independence Day.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+1.59%) Rallied from 4.222 lows on Friday to test 4.350 (20-day MA) today. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 73.50 OB but still rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and also in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0150 Daily ATR 0.0950.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th July 2021.

Market Update – July 6 – A weaker USD; RBA, OPEC & Kiwi hog the headlines.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD continued to weaken, strong EZ & UK data lifted European markets, England to lift most restrictions by July 19. OPEC meeting abandoned, OIL prices hit 3-year high (Brent $77+). Overnight RBA no change but bond purchases extended for 6 months but at lower rate, “conditions will not be met before 2024.” NZD rallied (1.14%) on strong data and 2021 interest rate rise expectations, dragging AUD higher (0.98%). Asian equities firmer. USDIndex under 92.00, EUR 1.1890, JPY under 111.00 at 110.75 & Cable tests up to 1.3900. Gold breaches $1800, USOil over $75.00 at $75.85. German manufacturing orders missed significantly (-3.7%) but previous reading was revised sharply higher (+1.2%).

Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.444%. Dax & FTSE100 FUTs are weaker on stronger GBP & EUR with German data weighing.

Today – EZ & UK Construction PMI, German ZEW, US Final Services & Composite PMI, ISM Services PMI, ECB’s de Cos, de Guindos. Day 1 of the ECB Strategy Review meeting.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.06%) Rallied from 0.7020 zone yesterday, which was up from Fridays NFP low of 0.6945, to breach 0.7100 on very strong reversal in business confidence today. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 82.38 and significantly OB but cooling, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs. also in OB zone, but also cooling. H1 ATR 0.0015 Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th July 2021.

Market Update – July 7 – Yields drive markets lower, USD Consolidates.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

MMarket News Today – USD consolidates on safe-haven bid, Bonds rallied/Yields dived, Nasdaq hit another ATH & Oil crashed. Chinese regulators flexed their muscles again & a surprise miss for ISM Services PMIs weighed on sentiment. Asian equities mixed. USDIndex up to 92.50, EUR slips to 1.1825, JPY holds under 111.00 at 110.70 & Cable tested under 1.3800. Gold holds $1800, down from $1814, USOil tanked from $77.00 to $72.00, trades at $72.90 now; what next for OPEC? 10yr yields dived to 1.348%. German industrial production dropped -0.3% vs expectations of +0.5%.

Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, while U.S. futures have found support. In cash markets the U.S. 10-year yield has moved up from lows, but at 1.36% remains below the 1.4% mark, underpinning the sense that the Fed will be able to wait before embarking on tapering action. Investors will be looking ahead to today’s release of the FOMC minutes for the June policy meeting, which could give a clearer sense on how far advanced taper talks really are. In Europe, the focus today will be on the EU Commission’s updated set of forecasts, which are likely to be more optimistic on growth, but also bring upward revisions to inflation projections. DAX & FTSE Futures a tad higher in early trades.

Today – EU Forecasts, FOMC Minutes, Fed’s Bostic.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.35%) Rallied from 77.30 lows yesterday to breach 77.50 to 77.80 highs. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 51.70 & rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain significantly below 0 line, but rising. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th July 2021.

Market Update – July 8 – USD & JPY on Bid as Risk Off Raises its Head.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD at 3-month highs, Bonds rallied/Yields dived, Nasdaq & S&P hit another ATH. Seem familiar? FOMC minutes showed “Hawkish Tilt” & some members up for tapering as early as this year – conditions could be “met somewhat earlier than anticipated”. Asian equities down as risk off bites on Virus spikes, with Sydney, Indonesia and South Korea mixed. USDIndex up to 92.82 yesterday – 92.70 now, EUR slips under 1.1800, JPY down to 110.25 & Cable under 1.3800 at 1.3775. Gold holds $1800, down from $1808, USOil down again at $71.15 now; what next for OPEC? 10yr yields dived under 1.300%.

Overnight – RBA’s Lowe acknowledged QE will be required for foreseeable future, strong UK housing data, better data from JPY & German Trade balance missed expectations.

Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, RBA Rate Decision, ECB Growth Forecasts & Special Strategy Meeting.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is higher, the 30-year outperforming, similar to developments in US futures. Yields continue to fall and curves flatten as markets adjust their tapering and central bank expectations amid the realization that the initial bounce back in activity is starting to level off – high levels and capacity constraints limiting the scope for a further acceleration in growth. In cash markets the US 10-year rate dropped back a further -1.2 bp to just 1.304%, and the German 10-year is set to fall further below the -0.3% mark. DAX and FTSE100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and -0.4% respectively and US futures are also in the red.

Today – ECB Minutes, Strategy Review Announcement and Lagarde Press Conference, US Initial & Continuing Unemployment Claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.96%). Rallied to 78.00 highs yesterday before closing at 77.60. Move lower today on JPY bid, under 77.00. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 26.70 OS and still falling rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain significantly below 0 line & falling. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th July 2021.

Market Update – July 9 – Risk Off cools as Yields slide & bounce.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD off 3-month highs, as Bonds, (US 10yr down to 1.25% before big bounce to 1.345%) JPY and CHF get a bid and then squeezed, AUD and NZD slip. Equities closed lower, USA500 (-0.86% -37pts to 4320). ECB fixed the inflation target at 2% with acknowledgement that an overshoot is likely, unemployment claims missed again and Virus worries, along with Chinese tightening the regulation screw all added to weigh on sentiment. Asian equities down again as serious spikes in Virus outbreaks and low vaccination rates hit home. USDIndex fell to 92.25, back to 92.40 now, EUR back over 1.1800 to 1.1830, JPY back to 110.00 from 109.50 lows & Cable under 1.3800 at 1.3775. Gold holds $1800, down from $1818 yesterday, USOil up from a test of $70.00 yesterday to $72.30.

Overnight – Chinese CPI weaker than expected, (1.1%) but PPI holds at highs (8.8%), GBP data dump misses led by MAY GDP misses significantly (0.8% vs 1.5% & April revised lower to 2.0% from 2.3%.) Industrial production & manufacturing also weaker than expected. US to blacklist more Chinese companies – RTS & Daly warms Delta variant a threat to global recovery – FT.

European Open – Sentiment started to stabilise overnight and 10-year Treasury yields have moved up 3.3 bp to 1.33%, while Bund yields have lifted 0.3% bp to -0.306%. With risk aversion fading somewhat, markets will continue to digest yesterday’s announcement of the new ECB strategy, that formulates a clearer inflation target of 2% over the medium term, but also vows to take the cost of owner occupied housing more into account.

Today – ECB Minutes, Lagarde, Bailey, the Canadian labour market report and G20.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.35%). Bounced from week+ decline from 90.00 on weaker Oil prices and strong JPY at 87.15 to 87.85 now. Next key resistance 88.50. Breached 21EMA earlier, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 53 but rising, MACD signal line & histogram remain below 0 line but rising. H1 ATR 0.157, Daily ATR 0.76.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th July 2021.

Market Update – July 12 – A cautious start for equities.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Wall Street ended the week in a positive mood & investors continue to buy equities at the start of this week. Hopes of ongoing central bank support are supporting the long end as virus developments see investors trim growth & inflation expectations. China’s central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio, as flagged in advance last week. The liquidity sensitive ChiNext saw the highest level since June 2015 & the offshore yuan nudged higher. Japanese markets outperformed; JPN225 gained 2.2%.

Japan core machine orders jumped 7.8% m/m in May, much more than anticipated & the third straight month of improvement, despite tightening virus restrictions. Virus developments continue to impact the annual rate, but the sharp acceleration in the monthly rate compared to the 0.6% m/m rise in April is encouraging.

The 10-year Bund is swinging between gains & losses, while peripheral bonds are moving higher & spreads narrow. Curves are flattening as the long end outperforms. Equities meanwhile are finding a footing & GER30 is fractionally higher after paring earlier losses. UK100 is still in the red but up from earlier lows, USA100 future is also marginally higher, indicating that investor appetite has already turned cautious again as markets keep a very close eye on virus developments as the Delta variant spreads through Europe. The latest surge started in the UK, which continues to see very high daily infection numbers & now also a pick up in hospitalisations. Germany’s numbers remain much, much lower, but have also started to creep higher amid concern that developments will derail plans to re-open much of Europe for the summer.

Overall, we don’t expect the recovery to be derailed & that should see yields creeping higher at some point, even if central banks remain very cautious for now.

Today – It will be a slow start to the week, with a lack of key releases and likely focus on virus developments. The earnings season also kicks off with JPMorgan, Goldman, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) XAUUSD (-0.40%). Gold prices eased on Monday as a slightly stronger dollar and buoyant equities dimmed the safe-haven metal’s appeal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th July 2021.

Market Update – July 12 – A cautious start for equities.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: WELLS FARGO, BANK OF AMERICA, CITIGROUP, BLACKROCK

This week the key Q2 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? Wall Street has remained in rally mode and at record highs, ahead of what is expected to be a strong Q2 earnings season. As the chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, Sam Stovall, told CNBC’s Trading Nation on Friday: “I think what we’re going to be seeing is the second-best year-on-year quarterly gain in the last 25 years, second only to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2009, since USA500 earnings are expected to be almost 61% this quarter”.

Q2 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the spread of the Delta Covid variant will likely continue, with countries like the Netherlands reporting an 800% increase in cases over the past week, hence fears that economic growth could plateau, and slowing vaccination rates globally keeping investors cautious over high valuations. Overall the US equity markets notched further all-time highs with a strong close yesterday as strong economic data keeps recovery hopes alive.

The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade since last year and the Stimulus Bill and the Infrastructure Bill, which also benefited and could continue benefiting the banking sector in particular. So far the financial sector posted 34.5% earnings growth in the first Quarter of 2021 while Q2 is projected an amazing 117% earnings per share growth for Financials in Q2, according to research firm FactSet. That’s the 3rd highest projection FactSet has on a sector basis. A key concern is a potential decline in “special purpose acquisition companies” (SPACs) activity during Q2 might also have hurt the sector.

Hence following the JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs report today, Wednesday has Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Infosys, PNC Financial, and Delta Airlines



The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, as revenues are expected to beat as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Reuters Eikon Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending June 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at $0.77 from $0.37, which implies a mean change of 0.41% and a year-over-year growth of 107.9%. Zacks Investment Research predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $21.83 billion, down by 2.16% on a yearly basis.



Please note that BOA, the nation’s second-largest bank, has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters due to strong growth in its sales & trading and investment banking businesses, regardless the company’s revenues have dropped since 2020 due to net interest income decrease. The net interest income, which contributes more than 50% of the total revenues, was down due to the interest rate headwinds and lower new loan issuance. Further, the same factors are likely to continue supporting solid growth for the bank’s sales, trading and investment banking for the rest of the year but the interest rates are likely to remain low on the resurgence of rising Covid-19 cases.

In regards to Citigroup now, things are similar to BOA as the bank is expected to post a beat on Earning ESP but a slowdown on consumer banking revenues. Similar to Q1 2021, the factors that are anticipated to affect the financial report for Q2 are:

Low Consumer Banking Revenues: Lower credit card loans as credit card holders are now paying back their loans at faster rates based on abundant liquidity and government aid, resulting in delays or even preventing lending volumes.
Slip of Trading Revenue: After a jump in trading activity and underwriting deal volumes since 2020, management forecasted a decline in Q2 2021. Lower fixed-income revenues are anticipated to have been an undermining factor for bank’s earnings.
Slip of Investment Banking Revenue: On the one hand, more M&A deals implies rising advisor fees from Citigroup, something that is expected to be a strengthening factor. However on the flipside, a decline in investment banking revenues is a risk for the bank.
Net Interest Income Decline: another undermining factor for Revenue similar to BOA.
Expenses Rise: Q2 expenses will likely rise to $11.2 billion.
Asset Quality to Improve
Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.96, in comparison with the $0.50 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $17.20 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 11% lower than Q1 2021.



From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, as both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, even though revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish in the medium term, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-week EMAs, even though a strong pullback has been seen in June. Today #Citigroup is at the $69 area, stabilising the past 5 weeks above the 50-week EMA finding a support at the $65.80 level suggesting that the correction might run out of steam. #BankofAmerica is at $40.59, above the double bottom seen at $38.47 as positively configured momentum indicators suggest that the outlook remains positive.



Finally, Wells Fargo and Blackrock, which are the fourth and fifth largest US banks, are expected to slate strong Q2 earnings reports, after the first posted its first loss since the global financial crisis of 2008 and the latter has a solid history of beating earnings estimates while it is well seated to hold a positive trend in its Q2 report.

Wells Fargo could post an EPS of $0.97 and revenues of $17.75 billion. The #Wells Fargo price sustains a move above the 20-week SMA for a 2nd week in a row, after the rebound from the $41 low. Momentum indicators and their positive to neutral configuration along with the sustained a move with a 1-year upward channel imply a positive medium term outlook for the stock price.



Blackrock on the other hand, in contrast with the other 3, has had a remarkably strong performance since March 2020 without a notable pullback on stock price in 2021, while it is currently trading at record highs. According to Eikon Reuters, the world’s largest asset manager is expected to report adjusted earnings of $9.36, in comparison with the $7.85 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $4.605 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, which is more than 25% growth since Q2 2020. Hence a beat of estimates could boost the stock to fresh all time highs.

Nevertheless, the US bank stocks have enjoyed a strong rally in 2021, clearly seen from US major indices such as USA30 which is up 92% since the 2020 bottom and up 33%YTD, due to the continued boost from massive stimulus packages, positive vaccination rollout, and the accomodative Fed’s policy. Based on Refinitiv estimates, together, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan are anticipated to report profits of $24 billion in Q2 2021, up significantly from the $6 billion seen last year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th July 2021.

Market Update – July 14 – Central banks are gearing up!.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Q2 earnings got off to a lackluster start Tuesday. Hefty earnings beats from JPM & Goldman Sachs were overshadowed by concerns over revenues& as a lot of the strength was on easy comps.

US: A much hotter than expected CPI print & very poorly bid 30-yr bond auction were a potent combination for a Treasuries selloff. The combo also left Wall Street heavy. June CPI surged 0.9% on both headline & core, more than double the estimate for the overall index & 3x the forecast for the ex-food & energy component. For the former it was the biggest jump since June 2008, while for the latter it tied for the largest since late 1981.

Asia: Bonds across the Asia-Pacific region were under pressure though & New Zealand’s 10-yr rate spiked 7.3 bp to 1.73% after the RBNZ unexpectedly decided to end large scale asset purchases by July 23. Stock markets mostly struggled, though the ASX managed to lift 0.4%, despite extended virus restrictions in some parts. JPN225 is -0.3%. The NZX 50 is down -0.5%. UK CPI inflation unexpectedly jumped to 2.5% y/y from 2.1% y/y in the previous month. A strong round of numbers, even if PPI readings show a slight deceleration in price pressures. The official BoE line has been that inflation overshoots will be transitory, but after today’s round of higher than expected numbers, labour market data later in the week will be watched very carefully.

Fed Chair Powell testimony preview: Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report (aka Humphrey Hawkins) & his comments will be especially scrutinized after another hefty CPI jump. However, while he will likely indicate that price pressures have been above Fed expectations, we expect him to reiterate the price pressures should be “transitory” & largely a function of base effects & the supply/demand impacts from reopenings & supply chain constraints. He will also repeat that the FOMC is not yet ready to begin withdrawing accommodation as the labor market has yet to fully recover. And he won’t give a timeline on QE unwinding.

FX markets: GER30 & UK100 are down -0.1% & -0.007% respectively, while US futures are still narrowly mixed, with the USA100 future outperforming. NZD rallied in the wake of the hawkish turn at the RBNZ. USD is steady to weaker, with USDJPY at 110.53. EUR & GBP lifted against a largely weaker USD, although EURUSD remains below 1.18 & Cable below 1.39. USOIL meanwhile is at $75.06 per barrel.

Today – Data releases today focus on US June PPI, BoC Monetary Policy & Press Conference & the first day Testimony from Fed Chair Powell. The earnings calendar includes BOA, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Blackrock.

Central banks are likely to gradually reduce the extraordinary degree of stimulus later in the year, but monetary policy will remain accommodative for a long time to come which should see economies through virus setbacks.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.20%). Kiwi spiked to 0.7030 following the RBNZ’s unexpected move. Momentum indicators are still positively configured with exception of Stochastics which flattened into the OB area implying a potential sideways move. Fast MAs aligned higher.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th July 2021.

Market Update – July 15 -“Don’t worry about it”.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

September 10-year Bund future rallied with Treasury futures overnight & in cash markets the US 10-yr rate corrected a further -1.3 bp to 1.33%. Υields also dropped in Australia & New Zealand, with the former outperforming despite a drop in the unemployment rate to just 4.9% – the lowest in 10 years. EGBs also ended higher yesterday after Fed Chairman Powell calmed nerves on the inflation front & managed to ease fears the Fed will move earlier than expected on tapering- Tapering is still “a ways off.”

The BoC left rates unchanged, as expected, while cutting its weekly QE purchases by C$1.0 bln, also as expected. The BoC statement left forward guidance unchanged from the previous meeting, though did downgrade 2021 GDP modestly while upping growth expectations for 2022.

BoE’s Bailey & ECB’s Schnabel were also out to calm nerves, with Bailey highlighting the central bank will need to assess the transitory factors that are driving headline rates at the moment, though comments from Ramsden sounded more cautious on inflation risks – no rush on rate decision.

Asia stock markets traded mixed after today’s round of growth data out of China. China Q2 GDP growth slightly weaker than expected at 7.9%. UK ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted to 4.8% in the three months to May and pick up in employment fell short of expectations at just 25K.

Earnings: BOA shares fell after revenue declined from a year earlier because of a 6% drop in net interest income due to lower interest rates. Citigroup beat analysts’ estimates for profit, thanks to a $1.1 billion boost from releasing reserves the bank had previously set aside for loan losses. Wells Fargo posted Q2 profit of $1.38 a share as revenue jumped 11% from a year earlier to $20.3 billion, soundly beating Wall Street’s expectations despite weak demand for loans. BlackRock’s assets under management jumped to a record $9.49 trillion in Q2 from $7.32 trillion a year earlier.

FX markets: USD steady to weaker, with USDJPY at 109.74. EUR & GBP lifted against a weaker USD, though EURUSD is at 1.1846 & Cable below 1.3865. USOIL dips to $71.44 per barrel – the combination of a reported production agreement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, allowing the Emirates to pump more oil in 2022, combined with an unexpected weekly rise in US fuel supplies, has weighed on prices. Gold topped at 1,832 (50% Fib).

Today – Fed Chair Powell’s testimony day 2 and Jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) EURCAD (+0.27%). CAD headed lower, despite the taper move, in what appeared to be a case of sell the rumor, buy the news.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th July 2021.

Market Update – July 16 – Stocks stalled.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Curve-flattening trades pressed longer dated Treasury rates lower again Thursday after Fed Chair Powell did not change his tune regarding the view on inflation; that it should be temporary, & that an accommodative stance is still necessary.

The curve collapsed to 108 bps, having retreated from 116 bps early in the week. It was the narrowest since February . Elsewhere BoJ did the expected & kept policy settings unchanged for now, but cut back its growth forecast for this year. JPN225 share average dipped below the psychologically key 28,000 mark as tech shares tracked declines on Wall Street overnight, while a continued surge in coronavirus infections dented investor sentiment. Weakness in chip-related shares also helped bring down USA500 & USA100.

European stock markets struggled yesterday, Gilts sold off & Bunds pared gains as BoE’s Saunders added to comments from Deputy Governor Ramsden suggesting asset purchases may have to end earlier than previously expected. At the same time, the Delta variant & concern over the fallout from recent devastating floods in Germany could also weigh on the GER30 today.

Mixed earnings, uncertainties over inflation & Covid, along with current richly priced valuations prompted some profit taking.

FX markets: EURUSD dropped to 1.1806, while GBPUSD eased to 1.3810. NZD up 0.6% at $0.7020 after consumer prices rose far faster than expected, bringing forward markets’ rate hike expectations to August. USOIL stayed under pressure drifting below $71.00 barrier. Gold on the other hand hit a 1-month high of $1,834.3, supported by a dovish Fed.

Today – Eurozone May trade & June CPI. US releases include Retail Sales & Michigan Index.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.88%). NZD remains the biggest mover amongst majors in the Asia session, & so far, however the rally seems to have run out of steam as fast MAs flattened along with RSI at 55. MACD’s signal line remains negative while Stochastics gives mixed signals at OB area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th July 2021.

Sharp selloffs on European Open.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Wall Street losses persisted through the Friday session, with the major indices all ending lower. Stocks got a brief boost from the stronger US retail sales data, though the dive in consumer sentiment, including upped inflation concerns, took the wind out of the rally’s sails.

Today, in the Asia session and on European open:

The 10-year Treasury yield was down and bonds were also supported, with Australia’s 10-year down -4.4 bp at 1.233%, as stocks were hit by growth concerns.

The September 10-year Bund future is up 42 ticks at 175.29, outperforming versus Treasury futures. GER30 and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively.

Reuters – Japan kept the overall assessment of its economy unchanged for a second straight month in July, retaining the view that conditions remain severe due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

Tech stocks struggled. – China’s crackdown on Tech giants Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com and Pinduoduo extending low amid new anti-monopoly and data security rules in China.

Reports of issues with Japan’s supply chain have been noted, with suppliers in countries such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam falling behind on production due to Covid shutdowns.

Zoom Video Communications Inc ZM.O, the videoconferencing service that became a household name globally during the pandemic, plans to parlay some of the resulting rise in its share price into a $14.7 billion acquisition to secure growth.

Oil prices declined on oversupply worries – OPEC and its allies agreed to ease output restrictions and supply cuts, including Russia which agreed new production allocations and a gradual phasing out of supply cuts, that will increase supply by around 400K barrels.

Focus will remain on the Covid spread around the region with the Delta variant continuing to cause worries.

FX markets: In FX markets the Yen was supported by safe haven demand, and USDJPY dropped back to 109.84, although the Dollar climbed against most other currencies. EURUSD is little changed at 1.1803, while Cable dropped to 1.3746. AUD hit its lowest level in 2021, at 0.7372. USOIL stayed at the $70.60-$71.60 barrier. Gold edged higher, lifted by a retreat in US Treasury yields and concerns that a surge in coronavirus cases could dampen global economic recovery, though an uptick in the Dollar limited the safe-haven metal’s appeal.



Today – The calendar is pretty empty to start the week, hence growth concerns are dominating and developments will add to expectations that the ECB will strengthen the dovish tone of the forward guidance at Thursday’s council meeting.

Biggest mover @ (8:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.66%). The Yen was supported by safe haven demand, while CAD dips on USOIL weakness. An aggressive selloff of CADJPY broke all Support levels for the day with next Support at 86 and 200-day SMA at 85.78.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th July 2021.

Risk sensitive assets plummet on recovery fears!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk off trades continued to dominate the Asian part of the session, but there are signs of stabilisation.


Stocks declined as fears that the rapid spread of the Delta variant will delay re-openings and force extended lockdowns in countries with lower vaccination rates continue to fuel risk aversion. Investors will be keeping a very close eye on virus developments, but speculation that market developments will delay central bank tapering plans should put a floor under markets that have corrected from very high levels.

Today, in the Asia session and on European open:

Bond markets continued to play catch up with the sharp rally in Treasuries yesterday. Australia’s 10-year rate is down -6.2 bp , New Zealand’s has corrected -7.8 bp and China’s 10-year bond is -1.5 bp richer.
Japan’s CPI rate nudged higher in June, with core lifting to 0.2%. Data are not expected to change the course of the BoJ.

Developer Evergrande slumped after local authorities halted some of its sales.

US futures are down and in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 1.1 bp to 1.200%. – Currently the USA100 has rebounded with 0.4% gains.

September 10-year Bund future is little changed. – GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.

German PPI inflation lifted to 8.5% y/y in June – remains mainly driven by developments in commodity prices.

RBA minutes: Strengthen rather than taper QE as stock markets continue to sell off.

In Australia, nearly half the country’s 25 million people are living under lockdowns to quell an outbreak of the Delta variant.

US yield curve continues to steepen. JPMorgan’s HuiP: “reflects reduced inflation expectations if reopening is delayed and potential downside risk to the economy, but that value and cyclical sectors should continue to outperform over the next 6-12 months given the ongoing recovery globally.”
Today’s data calendar in Europe and the US remains pretty quiet, with US housing starts, while neither German PPI nor Eurozone current account numbers are likely to change the outlook much.

FX markets: In FX markets the USD remained supported by safe haven bids and EURUSD dipped to 1.1773, while GBPUSD is at 1.3647 crossing the 200-day SMA. Safe-harbour currencies like the JPY and USD traded near multi-month highs against the riskier AUD, NZD and GBP. USDJPY is little changed at 109.35-109.60. USOIL prices stabilised at 66.50.



Key mover: USOIL – Oil prices stabilised on Tuesday after slumping around 7%. The aggressive selloff of USOIL was fueled by worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. The contract for August, which expires later on today, was up 15% at $66.57 a barrel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd July 2021.

Market Update – July 22 – USD cools as risk aversion slides.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD dipped from 3-mth highs, USDIndex down (from 93.18 to 92.80) as Equities bounce back, recovering all of Monday’s fall on the back of strong Earnings (+0.8% & VIX back to 20.00). Yields recovered to 1.28% (20yr auction filled at 1.89%). Virus concerns continue to weigh. OIL Inventories +2.4m vs -4.6m expected, USOil futures touched $70.00, Gold back under $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD trade & Confidence data mixed. (50% of popn. remain in lockdown).

European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, U.S. futures are also slightly higher, so the positive momentum that dominated yesterday’s session remains in place, albeit with a slightly more cautious tone to start the day. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.1793, Cable at 1.3719. Earnings reports helped to underpin stock market sentiment on Wednesday and company news will remain in focus today, but for the Eurozone the main item on the agenda is the ECB policy meeting.

ECB Preview – The central bank is expected to keep overall settings unchanged, but Lagarde has hinted that the forward guidance will be tweaked following the change in the inflation target and markets are hoping for a commitment to ongoing support beyond the immediate crisis phase. So the meeting is now of more significance and LIVE….

Today – The ECB policy announcement, US Weekly Claims & EZ consumer confidence and Earnings from Abbot Labs, Blackstone, AT&T, Intel, Snap & Twitter.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDCAD (+0.35%). Bounced from 13-mth low at 0.9216 yesterday to 0.9267 highs earlier. Breached 21EMA earlier, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 53 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising but significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0061.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd July 2021.

Market Update – July 23 – USD & Equities move higher.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD dipped following ECB & weak US data but has recovered as USDIndex eyes 93.00 again & a “Golden Cross”. EUR 1.1770, JPY 110.30, Cable 1.3750. Equities struggled but ended up, USA500 (+0.20%), Strong Earnings #TWTR. Yields held gains 1.265%. Virus concerns continue to weigh, US Republicans now encouraging vaccinations. USOil breached & broke $70.00, Gold back over $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD PMI data at 14-mth lows (50% of popn. in lockdown) & UK Retail Sales data beat as restrictions continue to ease and football was supposed to come Home.

ECB – Negative Rates Are Here to Stay – ECB tweaked its rate guidance yesterday which resulted in an even stronger signal that the bank expects this year’s inflation overshoot to be temporary. The marginally higher inflation target & refined hurdles for rate hikes have pushed an exit from negative rates even further into the future, but doesn’t necessarily clarify the outlook on asset purchases & PEPP. The focus on the forward guidance may actually signal a shift back from asset purchase targets to rates as the main signal for the ECB’s policy stance.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, Treasury futures are slightly underperforming. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and US futures are posting similar gains. The ECB’s affirmation of its ultra-accommodative policy stance and the strengthening of the guidance on rates should continue to keep sentiment underpinned. ECB’s Villeroy also stressed this morning that it was perfectly justified to stick with accommodative settings for now, but also indicated that the central bank will look at asset purchases again in September. For now though virus developments and the rapid spread of the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on growth optimism.

Today – Flash Eurozone, UK & US PMIs, CBR Rate Decision, Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from Danske Bank, American Express and Honeywell.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.21%) 4th day of big move from lows of 0.6330 on Tuesday, to test 20-Day MA (0.6417) today. Breached 21EMA yesterday, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising & significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th July 2021.

Market Update – July 26 – Chinese Regulators weigh on sentiment.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD dipped in early week trades (USDIndex 92.80 from over 93.00 on Friday) – Chinese & HK stock markets sank on more talk of regulation tightening. US equity markets traded at ATH’s again on Friday (USA500 +1%) on strong Earnings and expectations. Yields closed the week at 1.28. USD remains bid overall but softer this morning. Overnight – JPY CPI was a tick firmer, although Manu. PMI’s were weaker. Chinese PMI’s missed over the weekend and added to weaker Asian markets to start the big week ahead. Gold holds at 1807, from 1798 and USOil is down to 70.40 from 71.60.

Week Ahead – Rather significant – We have the FED, US GDP and PCE. A massive week ahead for US stock markets too – one third (30%+) of the S&P500 report 2Q Earnings including TSLA (today) APPL, AMZN, FB, & Alphabet & MSFT…over 20% of companies have reported already and 88% have beat (much improved from Q1) expectations.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is up 27 ticks at 176.08, Treasury futures are also moving higher, with the Ultra Bond outperforming, as stock market sentiment is hit by concern that the Delta variant will delay the recovery mounting worries over the impact of China’s clampdown on the tech sector. China and Hong Kong bourses sold off sharply overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.5%, while a -0.5% decline in the Dow Jones is leading U.S. futures lower. In FX markets EURUSD is at 1.1779, USDJPY at 110.17 from 110.55 earlier and Cable at 1.3751.

Today – German Ifo, BoE and US supply and earnings from Tesla, LockheedMartin, Hasbro and Logitech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.53%) Big move lower for the key risk-off pair, on Chinese tightening and JPY data. Dived from 81.50, under 20 MA, Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line and moving loer, RS 31 and moving lower testing OS zone, Stochs weak and already OS. H1 ATR 0.117, Daily ATR 0.842.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th July 2021.

Market Update – July 27 – Nearly everything in the red!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Chinese ADRs seen worst since 2018 – Hang Seng tech extends losses. The Chinese education sector knocked the CSI off -3.2%. Overnight, Stocks traded mixed, with China bourses still pressured by fears of China’s regulatory clampdown. Chinese shares fell sharply to their lowest levels this year on Monday as investor worries over the impact of government regulations kneecapped the education and property sectors, after Beijing barred for-profit tutoring in core school subjects.

Data releases included Japan services PPI, which came in a tad higher than anticipated at 1.4% y/y, which was still down from 1.5% y/y in the previous month. China industrial profit growth slowed to 20.0% y/y from 36.4% y/y.

European open: Treasury futures are fractionally lower, although in cash markets the US 10-year has remained supported, leaving the rate down -1.2 bp at 1.378%. Eurozone bonds underperformed versus Gilts yesterday as peripheral stock markets caught a bid, but GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively at the moment, after a mixed session across Asia overnight.

In FX markets: EURUSD down at 1.1788, while Cable is trading at 1.3809. USDJPY is at 110.12, with the Yen broadly higher. USOIL meanwhile is at USD 71.76 per barrel. The Aussie and Kiwi traded cautiously, at 0.7362 and 0.6977. While the antipodean NZD is backed by a strong economy and a hawkish central bank, recent strength in the US Dollar and concerns about rising global COVID-19 infections have kept the Kiwi range-bound over the last month. Markets are likely to remain cautious going into tomorrow’s FOMC announcement. Tesla’s profits soared to record 1.1 billion, LVMH Q2 sales soared beating forecasts.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.57%) – Dived from 77.30 to 76.53, breaking S1. The fast MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line and moving lower, RS 26 and moving lower testing OS zone.

Today: Wider markets are watching virus developments while waiting for US tech earnings and the FOMC announcement tomorrow. Earnings reports provide a distraction and investors will also keep an eye on virus developments. Local data releases meanwhile are unlikely to change the picture much, with US Durables, consumer confidence and Home prices later on.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th July 2021.

Market Update – July 28 – Risk aversion ahead of FED.


LONDON

“It is not China’s aggressive foreign policy that is the source of the disturbance in the capital markets, but its aggressiveness at home as it asserts over control parts of the tech sector and toughens its anti-trust efforts.” – Marc Chandler

Treasuries have led European bonds higher, as stock markets remain cautious ahead of the FOMC announcement. Risk aversion continues to dominate as virus developments cloud over the outlook for growth in the second quarter. Also, China’s regulatory clampdown spooks investors.

The delta variant is keeping central banks in wait and see mode for now although the more hawkish camps are likely to push for a discussion on tapering after the summer – at least in the central scenario.

BoJ’s summary of opinions also highlighted the need for ongoing caution with regard to tightening.

Earnings reports have actually been better than expected on the whole. – GER30 and UK100 futures are still down -0.2%, US futures also slightly lower.

Australia bonds rallied despite a spike in CPI inflation to 3.8% y/y in the second quarter.

German GfK consumer confidence held steady in the advance reading for August, against expectations for a further marked improvement.

US reports revealed a modest under-performance for the durable goods figures and another robust round of home price gains. For durables, the June data were modestly disappointing, but most May metrics were revised upward, leaving only a slight disappointment.

In FX markets: The USDIndex lifted out of a 13-day low, while EURUSD concurrently ebbed back towards the 1.1800 level, down from yesterday’s 13-day high at 1.1841. The Dollar remained comparatively softer versus the Pound, which rallied across-the-board yesterday as markets reacted to the sharp drop in Covid cases and the IMF’s sharp upward revision in its UK growth forecast for 2021, which, to recap, it expects at 7.0% and would mark the joint fastest growth out of the major advanced economies. Cable settled just off Tuesday’s 13-day peak at 1.3895. AUDUSD was heavy, AUDJPY also managed to hold above its Tuesday lows after a sharp decline yesterday and USDCAD ebbed back to the upper 1.2500s after yesterday’s short-lived foray above 1.2600, which left Friday’s peak at 1.2608 unchallenged.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF(+0.57%) – Spiked to 0.7280 from 0.7245, breaking PP. Currently the fast MAs are flattened, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line, and RSI is at 46 and moving lower with all suggesting that the spike was limited and a pullback could be seen.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th July 2021.

Market Update – July 29 – Equities gained on the back of a dovish FED.



Narrow ranges prevailed across asset classes yesterday and there wasn’t too much of a reaction to yesterday’s Fed announcement. The Fed provided some buying impetus and both stocks and bonds closed with modest gains in tandem with Treasuries and Wall Street. Overnight, the Treasury yields lifted 0.3 bp to 1.24% as Chinese shares led a broad rebound in Asian stock markets.

Like the ECB, the Fed signalled progress on the recovery, but also effectively signalled a cautious wait and see stance over the summer.– The FOMC signalled patience on tapering.
Chinese officials stepped up efforts to reassure investors, with state run media questioning whether the correction in equities was overdone and reports suggesting China will continue to allow local firms to go public in the US.
China’s central bank boosted cash injections by adding 30 billion Yuan.
Australia import and export prices came in higher than anticipated, which left local bonds paring earlier gains.
Topixand JPN225 are currently up 0.2% and 0.6%.
GER30and UK100 futures are down -0.1% though and US futures narrowly mixed, as investors wait for US GDP data.
Weekly US inventory data showed a 4.1 mln barrel draw on stockpiles, more than the median forecast for a 3.43 mln draw.
A Reuters reporthighlights analysts are expecting a quicker-than-is-being-anticipated plateau in summer oil demand across the northern hemisphere due to the impact of new restrictions in the face of the Delta variant driven spike in new Covid cases.
Proposed US infrastructure deallooks to higher taxes on crypto for part of the funding.
Pfizer Inc. in Q2 2021 jumped 92% on the year to $19 billion, exceeding analyst expectations.
Nissan Motor and some semiconductor firms (Advantest, Screen Holdings, TDK) delivered surprisingly strong earnings.
In FX markets: Both the EUR and the Pound have moved higher against a largely weaker USD, with EURUSD now at 1.1863 and Cable at 1.3936. USDJPY dropped back to 109.66. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $72.20 per barrel. Gold prices spiked to 1819 as the US Federal Reserve chairman struck a dovish tone after the policy meeting.

Today: The European calendar is busy today with German HICP inflation and labour market data alongside the Eurozone ESI economic confidence reading. Markets are also waiting for US GDP data.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XAUUSD (+0.72%) – Spiked to 1819.81 breaking 20-, 50- and 200-day EMA. Currently the fast MAs are still aligned higher as MACD signal line & histogram point northwards and RSI extended to 71.60 suggesting that the positive bias increases.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th July 2021.

Market Update – July 30.



Improved demand for risk boosted Wall Street overnight and weighed on Treasuries amid myriad crosscurrents. The markets are busy repositioning in the last week of July now that the Fed is safely out of the way with little likelihood for a tapering announcement until at least November. The miss on Q2 GDP was overlooked as inventories were the major culprit, while the surge in the price indicators to near 4-decade highs added to the pressure on bonds.

The focus turned back to earnings, data, the Delta variant, and the infrastructure deal out of Washington.

Good earnings news in general supported stocks with the USA30 and USA500 leading the way with gains of 0.4%, while the USA100 rose 0.1% as concerns over guidance from heavyweights, including Facebook and Paypal (beat earnings estimates, but guided lower), limited enthusiasm. Amazon’s online sales growth is slowing as lockdowns ease. Amazon’s core online store business disappointed, since it grew 15%, the slowest rate since 2019, despite it bringing forward its flagship Prime Day sales event to June. In Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are also down -0.7% and -0.6% respectively.

In FX markets: EUR and GBP corrected against a stronger USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1877 and Cable at 1.3980. USDJPY lifted to 109.60, although the Yen was steady to higher versus most other currencies. USOIL is at $73.38 per barrel. Gold was little changed at $1,831.



USOIL’s rally to 2-week highs over $73.20 on tight US supplies helped the CAD today as well. The market ignored the small uptick in Canada May average weekly earnings. USOIL stabilized at 72.60 today while PP is set at 72.45 and Resistance is at 73.00 and 73.30.

Today: The calendar is busy and focuses on Q2 GDP numbers for the Eurozone and Germany, which is expected to show a strong rebound from the contraction in the first quarter, while preliminary HICP readings could come in higher than anticipated, after strong German numbers yesterday. US CPI is also on tap, and it should decline -0.8% in June following the -2.0% May drop. Spending is forecast rising 0.9% after the unchanged reading in May. Weakness should result in a -5.5% decline in “current transfer receipts” after an -11.7% May plunge, as this measure tracks the pull-back in stimulus spending. This will more than offset the 0.5% rise in compensation. The savings rate should fall to 10.8% from 12.4% in May and a 27.6% peak in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd August 2021.

Market Update – August 2 – USD consolidates at lows.



Market News Today – USD up from 1-month lows (USDIndex 92.00 from 91.75 Friday) – Chinese & Asian stock markets rise, despite weak Chinese PMI & other Asian data. US equity markets closed lower on Friday (-0.54% USA500 4395) led by -7.56% fall for AMZN. Yields closed the week down at 1.239%. Overnight – HSBC beat earnings significantly, adding to good news from other European banks. AUD housing market still hot, JPY consumer confidence ticks up, German Retail sales bounce back significantly. Gold down again at 1808, USOil also down, but up from a test of 72.00, earlier.

Week Ahead – Another key week to start the month – RBA, BoE, CAD Jobs, NFP & a raft of PMI data.

European Open – DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.5% & 0.4% respectively, US futures posting gains of 0.5-0.6% after an upbeat session across Asia-Pacific region overnight. In FX markets both EUR & GBP little changed against USD, with EURUSD at 1.1873 & Cable at 1.3909. China jitters eased & there was some progress on the (much reduced) US infrastructure spending plan, which helped underpin sentiment. Virus developments in Asia continue to cause worries, but for Europe at least the hope is that advanced vaccination campaigns will allow economies to get through this wave without the type of restrictions that could seriously hurt the recovery. Central banks are cautious though as there are still lingering risks that will likely also keep the BoE in wait & see mode this week.

Today – EU, UK, US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI Earnings: AXA, Heineken,



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDNZD (+0.19%) Has moved up from 1.0517 (2021 and 33 week lows) on Friday. Weak breach of 21 EMA earlier, Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line but moving higher, RS 55, neutral but rising, Stochs rising and already into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0051.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd August 2021.

Market Update – August 3 – USD, Equites & Yields Pressured on weak data & Virus surge.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD pressured again (USDIndex struggles @ 92.00) on weak data yesterday & virus surge in Southern low-vaccination states. JPY & CHF benefit – Yields lead – down again; 10yr 1.51%, lows – closed at 1.74%. Equities flat into close (USA500 4387). Oil dumps -3.5%, CAD sinks.

RBA more Hawkish than expected – AUD rallied – September taper looks set though cautious undertones remain amid concerns over housing market & virus & vaccination situation. Chinese & Asian stock markets very mixed after more Chinese clampdowns (this time on Gaming) and virus surge in China. Fed’s WALLER (Hawk) suggests September taper announcement. Overnight data mixed; better CPI for Tokyo, weaker Housing approvals for AUD. Gold holds at 1808 but USOil down significantly to test 70.00, yesterday and only 70.30 now.

European Open – September 10-yr Bund future fractionally higher, US futures marginally lower, while in cash markets 10-yr Treasury rate is struggling at 1.176%. The real 10-yr Treasury yield remains close to record low. DAX & FTSE100 futures down -0.2% & -0.1% respectively, US futures up 0.2-0.3% after a largely weaker Asia session. With little on the European calendar to distract markets those will likely also be the themes for the European AM session, alongside earnings reports. The BoE decision tomorrow is also coming into view with the UK expected to join Fed & ECB & signal cautious patience for now.

Today – US Factory Orders, Fed’s Bowman, – Earnings: Generali, Societe Generale, BMW, Infineon, BP, Standard Chartered, Alibaba, Phillps 66, Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.19%) Has moved up from 0.8680 (14 day low yesterday) as Oil prices tumbled and NZD got a lift from Hawkish RBA. Significant breach of 21 EMA yesterday, Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and moving higher, RS 78 and well into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0060.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th August 2021.

Market Update – August 5 – USD Holds gains following Hawkish Clarida.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.20) & Yields (10yr 1.20%) boosted. Fed Vice Chair Clarida continues hawkish tilt. Earlier big miss for ADP (330k vs 700k) had seen Yields tank to 1.127% (6-mth low) & USDIndex 91.80 before big beat for ISM Non-Manu. PMI & Clarida’s “rate lift-off in 2023” & “tapering in 2021” comments. Equities mixed at close (USA500 -0.46% 4402). Asian markets hold gains. Oil inventories show a big build (+3.6m vs -3.2m & -4.1m last week) – USOil declined further to $67.16 (11-day low) recovered $68.00 handle now. Gold spiked to $1830 after ADP, back to $1810 now. German Factory orders – a big beat 4.1% vs 2.1%.

European Open – September 10-yr Bund future up 20 ticks, while Treasury futures are slightly lower, as investors continue to digest comments from Clarida, who said he was surprised by the extent of the slide in global yields – indeed it seems surprising that with the recovery now pretty much confirmed, the German 10-yr rate should be at -0.503%, i.e. lower than the deposit rate.

BOE Outlook – Some risk of hawkish twist. The bank is expected to keep policy settings unchanged, but some expect Bailey to explain the outcome of the review on how to best withdraw stimulus when the time comes. If he does, it should not be seen as a sign of imminent tightening, but could spook markets, especially after Clarida’s comments yesterday. US futures are fractionally higher. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.1840, while Cable is at 1.3925 ahead of BOE.

Today – US weekly jobs, BoE Policy Announcement & Press Conference, Fed’s Waller. Earnings: Adidas, Bayer, Continental, Credit Agricole, Lufthansa, Deutsche Post, Siemens, Glencore, Rolls Royce, WPP, ViacomCBS, Kellogg.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.32%) Rallied from 80.50 support to 81.00 yesterday before closing lower at 80.75. Retesting 81.00 again today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 60 and still rising. H1 ATR 0.081, Daily ATR 0.710.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th August 2021.

Market Update – August 6 – USD Firmer on Jobs Day.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.35) & Yields (10yr 1.237%) both higher today ahead of NFP. Weekly claims were in-line (385K). Equities rallied into close (USA500 +0.46% 4429). Asian markets weaker again on virus worries. BOE implied that rates hikes may come sooner than expected, avoided direct talk on taper and raised inflation expectations to 4%. Overnight – Significantly weaker JPY and German data. USOil rallied from $67.13 (12-day low) to $69.00 handle now. Gold spiked down to $1798 and struggles to hold the key $1800 now. The US Senate could agreed $1 trillion infra. plan on Saturday.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, Treasury futures are underperforming and in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate is up 1.1 bp at 1.24%. Tapering speculation is creeping back in and markets will be cautious ahead of today’s all important US payroll report. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently flat, up 0.019% and down -0.057%, respectively, while US futures are fractionally lower. Eurozone markets extended higher with Wall Street yesterday, but caution is likely to prevail ahead of the payroll report today.

Today – US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, BoE’s Bailey – Earnings: Allianz, ING, Hikma Pharmaceutical, LSE, Dominion Energy.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+0.85%) Rallied from 12 day fall to 4.3000 yesterday to test 20-day MA at 4.3930 today. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 significantly and moving higher, RS 76, OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.0103, Daily ATR 0.1014.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th August 2021.

Market Update – August 9 – Gold dips to 1681.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Bonds across Asia-Pacific were mostly under pressure, while stocks moved higher. September 10-year Bund future is down 5 ticks at 176.45, outperforming slightly versus US futures. That ties in with pressure on bond markets during Asian hours.

Japan is on holiday today, but elsewhere concern over China’s regulatory clampdown eased, which helped underpin risk appetite, as did progress on the US infrastructure plan, which is expected to be signed off by the Senate early this week. Part of the move higher in local markets will also be catch up trade following the stellar US jobs report last week. The spread of the Delta variant continues to cloud over the outlook for global growth & that is also a key reason behind the slide in oil prices.

GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.1% and -0.2% respectively and US futures are also posting losses of around -0.1/0.2%. In FX markets both EUR and GBP are little changed against the USD at 1.1763 and 1.3870 respectively. USD (USDIndex 92.74) & Yields (10yr 1.297%) both higher. JPY eased to 110.18, while USOIL prices continued to slide, currently to $66.32 per barrel. Gold slipped to a more than 4-month low today.

Today – Data releases today focus on German trade data which beat expectations in June in rising 1.3% m/m, after a mere 0.4% m/m in the previous month. Import growth meanwhile slowed to 0.6% m/m from 3.4% m/m, which left the sa trade surplus of EUR 13.6 bln, up from EUR 12.8 bln in May. Elseswhere we have Jolts Job Openings and FOMC speeches from Bostic and Barkin (voters).



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Gold slipped to a more than 4-month low today (-4.4%) Drifted by nearly 82 points from 1,764.59 to 1,681.83. Faster MA’s clashed, MACD signal line currently below histogram well below 0, RSI 39, all suggesting that the dip reached its end and correction took over. H1 ATR 12.65, Daily ATR 24.20.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th August 2021.

Market Update – August 10 – Qualm gains in the market.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – Treasuries have been supported and bond as well as stock markets have traded cautiously mixed across the Asia Pacific region. Another stellar jobs report and hawkish Fedspeak weighed on Treasuries yesterday. Stock markets across the region are mostly higher though and even the ASX lifted 0.35% despite the slump in Australia business confidence.

In Europe, the 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks and continuing to outperform versus Treasuries although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.0 bp to 1.31%. Sentiment continues to swing between concern that US labour market developments will see the Fed discussing tapering in earnest and fear that the rapid spread of the delta variant will harm the recovery as governments implement new virus measures that slow down output and demand.

GER30 and UK100 are fractionally lower, as are US futures. In FX markets the JPY is under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 110.39. NZD and to a lesser extent AUD also eased as tightening speculation was scaled back. EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar at 1.1735 and 1.3844 respectively. The USOIL price reversed and is currently at $67.27 per barrel. Gold recovered after a sharp fall.

Today – The key data release for this week is today’s German ZEW investor sentiment reading for August. Elsewhere we have the US NonFarm Productivity.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT + 1.10%) USOIL rebounded to 67.28 from 64.98. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD lines steadied at zero impliying consolidation in the short term, while Stochastics are above 80 pointing further up. H1 ATR 0.31, Daily ATR 1.83.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th August 2021.

Market Update – August 16 – Sentiment, USD, Equities & Yields slip on weaker Chinese data.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.50) ticks higher, Yields (10yr 1.248%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street on Friday, even after record miss for UoM consumer sentiment. DAX Futures over 16k for first time ever. Overnight – Weaker Chinese data, record Covid-19 cases in Japan and a new lockdown extension in Melbourne on top of the news from Afghanistan weighs on sentiment. Better data from JPY (beat for GDP) & NZD (better PMI’s) ignored. USOil down to break under $67.00 and Gold holds at $1775.

Week Ahead – FED Minutes, RBA Minutes, RBNZ Rate Decision, EUR GDP, US Retail Sales, Global CPI data,

European Open – Bailey & Lagarde will not attend Jackson Hole in person. Weak data releases out of the US, Japan and China has sapped confidence in the global recovery and given bond another boost. Core EGB yields were already supported on Friday, after the massive miss in U.S. confidence confidence reading and the September 10-year Bund future is up 29 ticks, pointing to further gains EGBs to start the week. Stock markets may still have clocked fresh records last week, also helped by expectations of ongoing central bank support, but sentiment clearly has turned cautious over the weekend.

Today – NY Fed Manufacturing (Empire State).



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.58%) Broke from support at 81.00 on Friday to close at 80.75, moved lower today on weak sentiment and risk-off mood, currently testing 80.20. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 22; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.108, Daily ATR 0.530.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th August 2021.

Market Update – August 16 – Sentiment, USD, Equities & Yields slip on weaker Chinese data.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.50) ticks higher, Yields (10yr 1.248%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street on Friday, even after record miss for UoM consumer sentiment. DAX Futures over 16k for first time ever. Overnight – Weaker Chinese data, record Covid-19 cases in Japan and a new lockdown extension in Melbourne on top of the news from Afghanistan weighs on sentiment. Better data from JPY (beat for GDP) & NZD (better PMI’s) ignored. USOil down to break under $67.00 and Gold holds at $1775.

Week Ahead – FED Minutes, RBA Minutes, RBNZ Rate Decision, EUR GDP, US Retail Sales, Global CPI data,

European Open – Bailey & Lagarde will not attend Jackson Hole in person. Weak data releases out of the US, Japan and China has sapped confidence in the global recovery and given bond another boost. Core EGB yields were already supported on Friday, after the massive miss in U.S. confidence confidence reading and the September 10-year Bund future is up 29 ticks, pointing to further gains EGBs to start the week. Stock markets may still have clocked fresh records last week, also helped by expectations of ongoing central bank support, but sentiment clearly has turned cautious over the weekend.

Today – NY Fed Manufacturing (Empire State).



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.58%) Broke from support at 81.00 on Friday to close at 80.75, moved lower today on weak sentiment and risk-off mood, currently testing 80.20. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 22; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.108, Daily ATR 0.530.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th August 2021.

Market Update – August 17 – Sentiment weak, USD holds gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.70) ticks higher again, on risk aversion as Virus concerns (partic. NZ which will enter new nationwide lockdown) and news from Afghanistan weighs. Yields (10yr 1.25%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street again (USA500 4479) even after big reverse for Empire State Manu. Index. Overnight – RBA minutes weigh on AUD “would be prepared to act in response to further bad news on the health front should that lead to a more significant setback for the economic recovery.” Better data from JPY (a big beat for Services activity) USOil up from spike lower at 65.50 to $66.70 and Gold rallies from 1770 over $1790. UK Jobs day better than expected.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, while, but still underperforming versus Treasuries, which have remained supported by ongoing risk aversion, as virus developments and geopolitical developments weigh on sentiment and sap risk appetite. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.03% and -0.18% respectively. US futures are underperforming and in FX markets the dollar is in demand. EURUSD dropped back to 1.1770, although the EUR was steady to higher against most other currencies. The Pound is struggling more and Cable dipped to 1.3821.

Today – EZ GDP (2nd), US Retail Sales, Industrial production, Fed’s Powell, Kashkari, Earnings – Walmart.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.22%) Lock news added to worries from RBA across the Tasman Sea earlier in the day and the USD safe haven bid. Crashed from 0.7025 at open and 0.7060 highs last week to 0.6920 now. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 17.80; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0058.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd August 2021.

Market Update – August 23 – Dollar Dips, Equities Hold gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 93.32) ticks lower again today, but holds significantly over 93.00.Yields (10yr 1.26%) lower as Asian stock markets follow US higher. (USA500 closed +0.81% @ 4441 & FUTS trade at 4451 now). Weekend – Afghanistan situation continues to hold, Biden issues EO on some Russian pipeline sanctions, Delta variant remains a significant concern, Japanese PM Suga suffers major reverse in local elections. Overnight – AUD & JPY PMIs miss expectations, USOil up from 7-day fall to $61.35 on Friday to $62.85, Gold holds at $1785.

European Open – September 10-yr Bund future down -15 ticks, US futures also retreating as risk appetite stabilises. Easing tapering concerns have helped underpin demand; DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.7%, US futures around 0.4%. Japan’s PMI readings pointed to acceleration in the pace of contraction & while European readings are expected to remain firmly in expansion territory, there is the risk that rising cases & questions over the efficacy of vaccines will weigh on services sentiment in particular, while the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with supply chain disruptions & capacity constraints. The announcement that Jackson Hole will be a virtual event will go some way to keep at least hope in ongoing central bank support alive. “The shift away from an in-person gathering, reflects a much more cautious Fed, which in turn suggests the Fed will not be announcing a path on QE tapering as soon as Jackson Hole, and likely not in September.” – Action Economics.

Today – EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, US Existing Home Sales.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOil (+1.90%) Breaks 7-day losing streak, currently up from 61.35 low on Friday to trade over $63.00 today. Currently back to $62.85. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 but rising and testing this level. RSI 55.6 and rising, MFI 110 and significantly OB. H1 ATR 0.35, Daily ATR 2.15.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th August 2021.

Market Update – August 24 – USD Cools, Equities, Crude Oil & Gold hold gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 93.00) ticks lower but holds at 93.00, Yields (10yr 1.255%) lower too as Asian stock markets follow US markets higher. (USA500 closed +0.85% @ 4479 & FUTS trade at 4485 now). Nasdaq biggest mover +1.55% on formal approval by the US of Pfizer (+2.5%)/BioNtech (+9.5%) vaccine. PMI data very mixed yesterday. Overnight – VP Harris (in Singapore) calls China actions in S. China Sea “intimidation” and “coercive”. USOil rallied over 5% and trades at $65.50, Gold moved on USD weakness and holds over $1800 at $1802 up from Friday’s close at $1778.

European Open – Bonds remained under pressure overnight, as stock market sentiment continued to improve. The September 10-year Bund future is down 9 ticks, U.S. futures are also in negative territory too. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are posting gains of 0.16% and 0.21% respectively, pointing to another move higher in indexes today as investors price out an imminent tapering announcement from the Fed. In FX markets haven flows are also reversing, leaving EURUSD little changed at 1.1743 and the Pound underpinned with cable lifting to 1.3743, from a Friday close down at 1.3610. USDJPY gave up 110.00 yesterday and sits at 109.80. AUD & NZD are the best performing of the majors following strong retail sales in NZ. German Q2 GDP a tick higher than expected at 1.6%.

Today – US New Home Sales, ECB’s Schnabel, BOE’s Tenreyro and supply from Germany and the US. G7 to meet regarding Afghanistan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.55%) Breaks 7-day losing streak, currently up from 74.56 low on Friday to test 76.03 today. Currently back to 75.97. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram above 0 significantly and consolidating. RSI 70.82, rising and testing OB zone. Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.112, Daily ATR 0.69.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th August 2021.

Market Update – August 27 – All Eyes on Jackson Hole.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

USD (USDIndex 92.98) rallied on hawkish taper talk from Kaplan, Bullard and George to 93.13 before cooling.
Yields held on to gains & flattened (10yr 1.342%), while
Equities fell on stronger USD & ISIS-K attack at Kabul Airport (85 dead inc. 13 US soldiers, Biden promises response). (USA500 -0.58% @ 4470, FUTS at 4480 now). Dell, Peloton & HP all reported weaker earnings.
US GDP Q2 2nd reading 6.6% vs 6.7%, Weekly Claims 353k vs 345k
Overnight – Asian stock markets were mixed – US COVID hospitalizations tops 100k 8-mth high. AUD retail sales worse than expected (-2.7% vs -2.6% & -1.8% previously), German import prices rising (2.2% vs 1.2% & 1.6%)
USOil spikes back over $68.00, to $68.20 now, from $66.65 lows yesterday.
Gold rallied from $1780 yesterday to over $1800 ($1803 now.)



European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -0.8 ticks, US futures steady to higher, as US cash yields climbed down from yesterday’s highs.

Markets are positioning for Fed Chair Powell to map out a taper schedule today, although it seems at this point a taper tantrum can be avoided. Investors are likely to be cautious ahead of the speech and DAX and FTSE 100 are currently down -0.16% and up 0.07% respectively.

In FX markets EURUSD lifted to 1.1762 as the dollar erased earlier gains. Cable is little changed at 1.3700. There is nothing really on the European calendar to distract from the focus on Powell.

Today – US PCE/Core PCE, Personal Income, Uni of Michigan (Final), Fed Chair Powell, Bostic, Harker, Mester, Bullard.

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (+1.57%) Spikes back over $68.00, to $68.20 now, from $66.65 lows yesterday. Broke 21 EMA earlier, at $67.40 next resistance $68.25. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram still above 0 line & rising. RSI 60.70 and rising. MFI 89 & in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.35, Daily ATR 2.10.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th August 2021.

Market Update – August 27 – All Eyes on Jackson Hole.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

The markets closed a difficult and nervous week firmly in the green after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. Many had geared up for hints that QE tapering could be announced as soon as September and begun in October. But Powell said that while inflation may have met the criteria to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases, he stressed that “substantial slack” remains in the labor market which is likely to continue, hence failing the test. He also supported the transitory nature of inflation, countering the bevy of FOMC hawks who have been frequently in the press warning of price pressures and advocating tapering soon, if not September.

USD (USDIndex 92.58) at multi-week lows today in the wake of Powell laying out a slower-than-expected path to rate hikes, & as traders’ focus shifts to US jobs.

Treasuries managed to extend the gains (10yr down -0.7 bp at 1.3%)

Equities are posting fractional gains, although markets clearly are cautious ahead of key jobs data for the US this week and as investors eye the impact of hurricane Ida as well as virus and geopolitical events. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.97% and 0.45% respectively also helped by stronger than expected retail sales numbers

Overnight – USDJPY is at 109.75 and the Yen is stronger against most currently, while AUD and NZD struggled

USOil turned lower at $68.04 (falling 0.31%), after energy firms suspended 1.74 million barrels per day of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Ida slammed into the Louisiana coast as a Category 4 storm

Gold steadied to the $1812-$1823 area

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is up 15 ticks, slightly outperforming US futures, although in cash markets Treasuries also managed to extend Friday’s post-Powell gains and the US 10-year rate is currently down -0.7 bp at 1.30%. Powell’s cautious stance also helped stock markets and most indices across the Asia-Pacific region had a good start to the week.

GER30 futures are also up 0.12% this morning and US futures are posting fractional gains, although markets clearly are cautious ahead of key jobs data for the US this week and as investors eye the impact of hurricane Ida as well as virus and geopolitical events. In FX markets EURUSD has lifted to 1.1801 and Cable is trading little changed at 1.3765.

Today – UK markets are on holiday today, while the Eurozone data calendar includes Eurozone ESI economic confidence data as well as preliminary German inflation numbers for August, the Swiss KoF indicator and the US Pending home sales.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.56%) Spikes back to $1.8886 from $1.8797. Broke 50 EMA earlier, while faster MA’s aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram still below 0 line but rising. RSI at 56 and rising. H1 ATR 0.00145, Daily ATR 0.01024.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st August 2021.

Market Update – August 31.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

Treasuries extended gains overnight. The advent of month-end with a large duration extension, momentum from the break of 1.30% on the 10s, the lack of supply, and Covid worries have underpinned. Concurrently, stocks firmed led by a 0.9% jump in the USA100 and a 0.43% gain in the USA500, both at fresh record highs of 15,265 and 4,528, respectively. The USA30 lost altitude and closed with a -0.16% loss. Signs that China’s economy is struggling thanks to virus measures and the regulatory clampdown weighed on the market.


China’s official PMI readings meanwhile showed the manufacturing number dipping to just 50.1, while the services reading fell back into contraction territory for the first time since early last year, at just 47.5.

Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly improved, but factory output declined, as did Australia building approvals.

The Delta variant is also leaving its mark on economies across the region. Covid surges in US.
EU to reimpose travel curbs to US.

USD (USDIndex 92.45) weakened as there is no clear signal on the Fed’s tapering timeline.

Equities are mixed as Topix and JPN225 managed to rise 0.7% and 1.2% respectively, also help
ed by stronger than expected retail sales numbers.

Overnight – USDJPY fell back to 109.81. The Yen declined against most other currencies though. NZDUSD jumped to 0.7062. NZD and AUD strengthened as lockdowns in NZ were seen successfully lowering new COVID-19 infections, while the Aussie was stronger after building permits raised hopes its economy could avoid recession.

USOil is trading at $69.14 as traders assess the prospect for an easing of output restrictions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.

Gold rose to 1,819, Platinum down over 4%, Silver down 5.4% for the month, Palladium heads for its worst monthly performance in seven months.

Today – Calendar includes Eurozone inflation, German unemployment, Canadian GDP for Q2 and US Consumer Confidence.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.94%) Spikes to 0.7062 from 0.6995. It is retesting the 3-month Resistance area at 0.7000-0.7100. Faster MA’s aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram rising. RSI at 78 and rising. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st September 2021.

Market Update – September 1.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

European bond markets and Eurozone peripherals in particular sold off yesterday, as more ECB officials flagged the possibility of a tapering announcement next week and it seems pretty certain now that the ECB will start to take the foot off the accelerator as it revises its growth forecast upwards once again. Activity is now expected to reach pre-crisis levels as soon as the end of this year, and fiscal support should increase, which reduces the need for central bank support to some extent at least. Central bank officials will stress the very dovish guidance on the rate outlook though in order to avoid a taper tantrum.

Bonds in Australia and Zealand underperformed and sold off sharply as traders assess the economic outlook against the background of virus developments.

Australia Q2 GDP beat most estimates. GDP numbers have prompted some to ditch expectations that the RBA will postpone planned moves.

Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI was revised higher and continues to signal expansion.

USD (USDIndex 92.75) strengthened.

Equities are mixed as GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.5%, alongside gains in US futures, which is encouraging. China’s tech stocks shake off risks.

EURand Sterling are lower against the Dollar, but it is the CHF that is mostly under pressure this morning.

USOil is trading at $68.92 as traders assess the prospect for an easing of output restrictions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today. (Saudi struggling to increase supply, Shrinking US stockpiles, a rebound in Indian demand China’s outbreak.

Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.

European Open – German retail sales corrected -5.1% m/m in July, a much more pronounced correction than anticipated, largely related to the ebb and flow of virus developments and restrictions.

Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the outlook, and focus on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK. Eurozone unemployment data for July are also due. In the US, we have ADP and ISM data.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.41%) Spikes to 2-week highs to 80.82 from 78.00 lows. Faster MAs aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram are rising strongly. RSI at 70 and rising. H1 ATR 0.096, Daily ATR 0.733.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd September 2021.

Market Update – September 2.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

Trading should remain quiet and confined in the lead up to the employment report. The markets were mixed to open September with the USA100 extending gains to another record high. Longer dated Treasuries also rallied while the front end of the curve cheapened fractionally. The data were mixed and didn’t provide any strong direction. Additionally, limiting action were concerns over the spike in the Delta variant, increased mitigation measures, slowing in growth, high valuations on Wall Street, rich Treasury yields, and angst over monetary policy amid increasing hawkish talk from various Fed officials and now from some ECB members.

China tech stocks gain for 4 days straight – “Buying the dip” sentiment from months of sell off despite China firing fresh regulatory Salvo.

Biggest tech stock rally in record – Tech stocks power USA100 to record highs.

Tesla’s China output halted for days last month on chip shortage – lack of key chips , electric control devices for vehicles.

Treasury futures are also fractionally higher, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 0.2 basis points. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, USA100 at new record highs, Topix and JPN225 are up 0.03% and 0.19% respectively.

Australia’s trade data was a positive surprise with the trade surplus reaching a record high in July, but there are concerns that activity will correct in Q3 thanks to Covid measures, after better than expected Q2 data yesterday. If the RBA doesn’t postpone planned tapering it could further hit the economy.

USD (USDIndex 92.45) extending 12-day decline.

USOil declined to $68.00 after OPEC+ alliance agrees to return more barrels.
Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.

Today – Data releases today includes data for Switzerland and Eurozone PPI inflation and weekly jobless claims,July trade report and factory orders from the US.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) JPN225 (+0.19%) Crossed 20-DMA, reversing more than 40% of 2021’s decline this week. Faster MAs flattened suggesting consolidation in the short term. The MACD signal line & histogram are falling lower since yesterday’s peak and RSI steadied at 56. H1 ATR 77.68, Daily ATR 398.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd September 2021.

Market Update – September 2.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

Trading should remain quiet and confined in the lead up to the employment report. The markets were mixed to open September with the USA100 extending gains to another record high. Longer dated Treasuries also rallied while the front end of the curve cheapened fractionally. The data were mixed and didn’t provide any strong direction. Additionally, limiting action were concerns over the spike in the Delta variant, increased mitigation measures, slowing in growth, high valuations on Wall Street, rich Treasury yields, and angst over monetary policy amid increasing hawkish talk from various Fed officials and now from some ECB members.

China tech stocks gain for 4 days straight – “Buying the dip” sentiment from months of sell off despite China firing fresh regulatory Salvo.

Biggest tech stock rally in record – Tech stocks power USA100 to record highs.

Tesla’s China output halted for days last month on chip shortage – lack of key chips , electric control devices for vehicles.

Treasury futures are also fractionally higher, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 0.2 basis points. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, USA100 at new record highs, Topix and JPN225 are up 0.03% and 0.19% respectively.

Australia’s trade data was a positive surprise with the trade surplus reaching a record high in July, but there are concerns that activity will correct in Q3 thanks to Covid measures, after better than expected Q2 data yesterday. If the RBA doesn’t postpone planned tapering it could further hit the economy.

USD (USDIndex 92.45) extending 12-day decline.

USOil declined to $68.00 after OPEC+ alliance agrees to return more barrels.
Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.

Today – Data releases today includes data for Switzerland and Eurozone PPI inflation and weekly jobless claims,July trade report and factory orders from the US.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) JPN225 (+0.19%) Crossed 20-DMA, reversing more than 40% of 2021’s decline this week. Faster MAs flattened suggesting consolidation in the short term. The MACD signal line & histogram are falling lower since yesterday’s peak and RSI steadied at 56. H1 ATR 77.68, Daily ATR 398.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd September 2021.

Market Update – September 3 – NFP day.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

Today’s employment report is eagerly awaited for directional purposes. The markets traded very quietly Thursday, though with a bullish bias. Treasury yields finished marginally lower with the 10-year just under 1.30%. The mix of data had little impact, though the improvement in claims did underpin an upbeat outlook into the jobs numbers, even as the factory and trade data, along with the already seen weakness in vehicle sales, weighed heavily on Q3 GDP projections.

Action on Wall Street was equally light and range-bound, though, the USA500 and the USA100 made still more new highs.
Data releases in Asia highlighted the impact of virus developments on the services sector in particular – Asian stock markets have moved higher and stocks across China, Japan and Australia are poised for a weekly rise, despite gloomy data.

The fact that the JPN225 still rallied nearly 2% and the ASX is up 0.5% shows how reliant markets are on central bank support.

GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.076% and 0.014% respectively.

USD (USDIndex 92.16) extending 22-day support.

USOil extended to $69.78.

Gold steadied to 1,803-1,817.

Today – The calendar includes the final PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK, which are likely to confirm that high vaccination rates limit the impact of the rapidly spreading delta variant. Eurozone retail sales and ISM Services PMI are also due. The highlight of the day is the NFP number.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.26%) Broke 28-day Support. Faster MAs aligned lower with MACD resuming its decline, Stochastic below 20 and RSI at 31.80, all suggesting a decline in the short term. H1 ATR 0.00173, Daily ATR 0.01062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th September 2021.

Market Update – September 6 – USD off post NFP lows.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today

USD (USDIndex 92.18) continues at lows following NFP headline miss (pushed to 91.91) – although rest of report was strong; taper expectations slipping to Nov-Dec.

Yields held on to gains & flattened (10yr 1.322%), while
Equities slipped ahead of long weekend (USA500 -0.03% @ 4535, FUTS at 4538 now). Nikkei + 2% looks like Covid Minister (Taro Kono) will be new PM.


USOil crashes following price cuts from Saudi Arabia to Asian customers. From $70.00+ on Friday down to $68.00, now.

Gold holds Fridays gains (rallied from $1805 to $1832 peak) trades at $1827 now.)

Overnight – Asian stock markets were mixed, Nikkei lead markets higher on leadership talk. Chip shortages continue to gain headlines (Mercedes “through 2022”, GM factories on “idle”, CBI in UK warn of problems for “at least 2 years”.) NZ to ease Covid lockdowns, cases in Australia to peak within two weeks (emphasis now on vaccinations; 75% of NSW/Victoria popn. has now had first vax.)

Week Ahead RBA, (Tuesday) BOC (Wednesday) and top of the shop ECB (will Ms Lagarde talk taper dates?) – key US data is PPI (Friday) and JOLTS (Wednesday). Plus EU & JPY GDP (Tuesday), Chinese inflation (Thursday) and Canadian jobs (Friday).

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down 8 ticks, US futures also fractionally lower. US payroll number headline may have been weaker than expected, but was strong in the details& against that background markets still seem to waiting for ECB to announce a slight tapering in monthly asset purchase levels this week. Lagarde will play down the importance though & is likely to once again stress the forcefully dovish guidance on the rate outlook & highlight the fact that asset purchases at levels seen in the first quarter would still mean sizeable support.

DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and U.S. futures are also fractionally higher. In FX markets EUR and Sterling declined against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD and Cable at 1.1872 and 1.3851 respectively. AUD & NZD gave given up some of the least two weeks gains ahead of RBA tomorrow. USDJPY has lifted to 109.80 from Fridays close at 109.67.

Today – US & Canada closed for Labor Day German Industrial Orders, EZ & UK Construction PMIs, EZ Sentix Index.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.30%) Slioped from 0.69% gain on Friday into 0.7445 close, to 0.7480 now. Faster MA’s now flat, MACD signal line & histogram still above 0 line but falling RSI 53.30 and flat. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.