Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

Four reasons to buy Bitcoin

Through hardships to the stars! Bitcoin is enjoying its investment luster again thanks to worldwide monetary policy easing, rising global risk appetite, and hopes for improved crypto regulation in the US. Regardless of who comes to power—Kamala Harris or Donald Trump—digital assets will find support from the future president. This optimism is fueling the BTC/USD rally.

Bitcoin opened in September in a subdued mood. Historically, over the past decade, it has fallen by an average of 5.9% during the first month of autumn. However, there are exceptions to every rule. In 2024, Bitcoin gained about 10%, thanks to the aggressive start of the Federal Reserve's monetary expansion and support from both US presidential candidates. Kamala Harris promises to increase investment in the crypto industry and artificial intelligence, while Donald Trump plans to make America the crypto capital of the world.

Bitcoin's performance in September

The lower the interest rates, the cheaper the money, and the more liquidity there is in the financial system. An increase in the supply of fiat currencies reduces their purchasing power and drives investors to seek alternatives. The best of these are assets whose supply is limited by nature. It's no surprise that gold is hitting historical highs against this backdrop, and Bitcoin has surged to its highest levels since July.

The Federal Reserve has aggressively begun a cycle of monetary easing. The People's Bank of China has launched its largest-scale stimulus since the pandemic. The weakness of the Eurozone's economy is even prompting ECB hawks to consider rate cuts. Widespread monetary policy easing by major central banks creates a favorable environment for risky assets. Moreover, US stocks have surged thanks to the "Goldilocks" scenario—where GDP is slowing but still growing above trend, and inflation is steadily approaching the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the increase in Bitcoin's correlation with US stock indices to the highest levels since 2022 cements investors' intent to buy cryptocurrency. Unlike the S&P 500 and gold, Bitcoin is far from its historical peaks, meaning it doesn't resemble a bubble that could burst at any moment.

S&P 500 and cryptocurrency correlation trends

Thus, the combination of widespread monetary expansion, diminished trust in fiat currencies, growing global risk appetite, and bipartisan support for the crypto industry are giving Bitcoin a green light. But can it seize the opportunity? The answer to this question will largely depend on US stock indices, whose correlation with digital assets is rapidly increasing.

Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, a broadening wedge pattern has fully formed. We expect a pullback to the 4-5 wave, after which there will be an opportunity to increase the previously opened long positions at 55,420–55,720, 58,000, and 59,000.
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The main events by the morning: September 30

In 2025, the world's central banks will switch their focus from fighting inflation to stimulating economic growth. With the beginning of the cycle of interest rate cuts in the second half of this year, experts began to express concern about the prospects for economic development. Now central banks will look for new growth points, since the task of containing inflation has been completed. China has already started stimulating its economy last week.

Investors are actively showing interest in the IPO of Arenadata, having re-signed the application book 3-4 times along the upper limit. The company expects to re-sign 4-5 times. Arenadat strives to avoid a repeat of the situation with Diasoft and intends to make the placement more balanced. The auction will begin on October 1.

Russia plans to strengthen responsibility for illegal migration. Three draft laws are being developed: one of them assumes that illegal stay is considered an aggravating circumstance when committing offenses, the other introduces fines for forgery of migration documents in the amount of 5-10 million rubles, and the third provides for punishment for organizing illegal migration.

The United States has allocated $567 million in military assistance to Taiwan, including for the supply of weapons, training and training in the military sphere. In 2023, the United States provided $345 million in military aid to Taiwan. China considers Taiwan its territory and has repeatedly criticized the American authorities for its support.
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Indexes in the green, oil in the red: What's behind the market paradox?

Powell warns of caution
The S&P 500 unexpectedly soared to record highs on Monday, after earlier being under pressure due to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He signaled that the Fed will not rush into another rate cut, despite market expectations.

The index was supported by positive sentiment, as well as strong monthly and quarterly results. As a result, all three key US indices — the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq — closed the session in the "green zone", updating their historical maximums.

Important signals for the market
Speaking at the National Economic Association conference in Nashville, Powell indicated that the regulator expects two more rate cuts this year if economic indicators meet forecasts. In total, this amounts to 50 basis points, which allows investors to assess the Fed's further steps.

"Many people believe that the Fed's actions are already priced in for the rest of the year," comments Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management. "But I think the Fed may have more surprises in store for 2024. It is quite possible that the soft landing scenario will actually happen."

The market reacts to forecasts
The Fed already took a step towards easing policy earlier this month, cutting the rate by 50 basis points. Investors are closely monitoring the likelihood of a similar decision in November, which, according to CME Group, fell to 35% from 37% before Powell's speech and 53% on Friday.

Results of the day: all indices are positive
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 17.15 points (+0.04%), reaching 42,330.15. The S&P 500 rose by 24.31 points (+0.42%) and ended the day at 5,762.48. The Nasdaq Composite showed an increase of 69.58 points (+0.38%) and closed at 18,189.17.

Now, investors' attention is focused on future Fed statements and economic data, which can either confirm or adjust the market's expectations regarding the further movement of interest rates.

Best September in Seven Years
The S&P 500 ended September with a gain of 2%, which was its best result for this month since 2013. Moreover, this is the fifth month in a row when the S&P 500 has demonstrated positive dynamics. By the end of the quarter, the index added 5.5%, Nasdaq showed growth of 2.6%, and the Dow Jones became the leader, having strengthened by an impressive 8.2%.

Short-Term Volatility
The market reaction to Jerome Powell's statements was mixed. After his speech, the indices went down, but towards the end of the trading session there was a reversal and the market recovered. Experts believe that one of the reasons for this movement could be the activity on the last day of the quarter, when investors are trying to fix their positions.

"There's always a lot of trading activity toward the end of a quarter — it's standard behavior to buy the winners and dump the losers," says Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management.

The Fed and Market Expectations
The Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see period ahead of its November meeting, according to Quincy Crosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, as it receives a slew of new economic data that will shape the path of monetary policy.

There are several key releases coming this week, including initial jobless claims and private payrolls. The market is watching these indicators closely as they could impact the rate decision.

CVS Health Stock Rises
The company's stock jumped 2.4% on news that activist shareholder Glenview Capital Management is set to meet with CVS Health executives. According to insiders, the meeting will be devoted to possible changes in the company's strategy to improve its efficiency.

Optimism on the stock markets
On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares that showed growth exceeded the number of those that fell by 1.06 to 1. On the Nasdaq, this ratio turned out to be balanced - 1.00 to 1, which indicates an even mood of market participants.

The S&P 500 registered 30 new annual highs and only two new lows, while the Nasdaq index showed 82 new peaks and 88 lows. Current data indicates significant volatility, but also an active recovery of the positions of leading companies.

Trading volumes are high
Trading volumes on US stock exchanges reached 12.64 billion shares, which is higher than the average for the last 20 sessions, which is 11.93 billion. Increased activity may be due to investor nervousness amid statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and increased uncertainty about further monetary policy.

Markets in anticipation
The MSCI world stock index started the week on a minor note and showed a decline, while the dollar strengthened amid reduced expectations for a more aggressive easing of the Fed's policy. Powell made it clear that the regulator does not intend to sharply cut rates yet, which increased volatility in the markets and adjusted investor expectations. At the same time, oil futures ended trading sideways due to uncertainty around the conflict in the Middle East.

Powell's comments wobbled
Markets were mixed after Powell said the Fed would not force a rate cut. Investors who had expected a deeper cut are reconsidering their positions as the Fed chief raised the prospect of two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, provided the economy continues to grow within current forecasts.

Strong inflation data supports gains
Wall Street's major indexes rose strongly last week after U.S. core inflation data came in below expectations, raising the prospects for further monetary easing. However, as of Monday, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November had fallen to 36.7% from 53.3% on Friday, according to CME Group.

Investors continue to assess the likelihood of further rate cuts as the U.S. economy shows mixed signals. The focus remains on employment, inflation and GDP growth data, which could either strengthen Powell's position or lead to a revision of current forecasts. The market remains in a state of heightened uncertainty, which is reflected in trading volumes and volatility.

Rates are high, and so are risks
In the coming weeks, market participants will be closely watching the speeches of Fed officials for the slightest hint of a possible change in course. Market expectations have become more subdued, but any new information could change the situation again.

Stocks have returned to previous levels
Despite an initial decline at the time of Jerome Powell's speech, the S&P 500 and Dow indices ended the session at record highs, recouping losses in the final hours of trading. The gains came on the final day of the quarter, when investors traditionally adjust portfolios, adding additional volatility to the market.

"The strong close can be partly attributed to the impact of so-called 'quarterly rebalancing', a typical practice of recalibrating portfolios at the last minute to improve performance," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.

Strong growth for the month and quarter
The S&P 500 index rose 2.01% in September, demonstrating an impressive fifth consecutive month of positive dynamics. And for the quarter, it strengthened by 5.53%, which underscores the market's resilience amid uncertainty over the Fed's further actions.

The MSCI Global Index also ended the day in the red, falling 0.21% to 851.02. However, for the month, the index gained about 2%, and for the third quarter, it showed a strong growth of 6%, which indicates a restoration of optimism among global investors.

Risk Factors Remain in Play
Per Stirling Capital's Tim Phipps warns that investors continue to keep a close eye on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the aftermath of Hurricane Helen and the threat of a major US dock strike. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy, which is struggling to maintain growth momentum with new stimulus measures.

China Adds Positive to Asian Markets
China's stock market has responded with a strong rally as Beijing unveils stimulus packages. The CSI300 index of China's leading companies posted its biggest daily gain since 2008, jumping 8.5%. This follows a rally over the past five trading days, during which the index has gained more than 25%.

Investor Strategies and Expectations
Investors remain in a holding pattern as further moves by both the Fed and major economies such as China could have a significant impact on global markets. Current events highlight the importance of balancing domestic and external risks, including macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical factors.

Against this backdrop, experts recommend caution and focus on portfolio diversification, as instability could prove to be a long-term trend.

Fed chief's hawkish stance worries the market
The US currency strengthened after Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed may not cut rates significantly in November. The statement caught the market by surprise and forced investors to reassess their expectations.

"It looks like Powell has taken his share of hawkish pills," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research and macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, with irony. In his opinion, traders are now starting to worry that the regulator is really set for two small rate cuts of 25 basis points this year.

The dollar is steadily growing against major currencies
The dollar index, reflecting its dynamics against key currencies such as the euro and the yen, rose by 0.32%, reaching 100.76. As a result, the euro weakened to $1.1133, which is 0.27% lower than the day before, and the dollar against the yen rose by 1% to 143.61.

The debt market reacts to the Fed's rhetoric
The yield on US Treasury bonds also changed following the updated expectations of investors. The benchmark 10-year bond rose by 3.6 basis points, reaching 3.785%. This is higher than the value of Friday, when the yield was 3.749%.

Two-year bonds, which are usually more sensitive to interest rate changes, showed an even sharper move. Their yields rose 7.4 basis points to 3.637%, up from 3.563% late Friday.

Yield curve signals shift in sentiment
The gap between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields, often used as a proxy for economic growth expectations, was 14.6 basis points. That figure is seen as a sign of rising investor confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy despite continued uncertainty around monetary policy.

What's next?
A stronger dollar and rising bond yields highlight a shift in market sentiment. Market participants will be watching further Fed comments and economic data to see whether the Fed will continue to tighten its rhetoric or decide to pursue more aggressive easing later in the year.

US oil shows its biggest drop in a year
US WTI oil prices fell slightly, ending the day at $68.17 per barrel, losing just 1 cent during the trading session. However, the results of September turned out to be much more dramatic - the cost of raw materials fell by 7% in a month, which was the largest drop since October 2023. By the end of the quarter, the drop reached 16%, which makes it the most significant in the last year.

Brent is also in the red
The global benchmark of Brent crude oil closed the session at $71.77 per barrel, down 21 cents. In September, Brent fell by 9%, showing the strongest monthly drop since November 2022 and continuing the downward trend for the third month in a row. The quarterly results are even less comforting: Brent lost almost 17%, which was the most significant quarterly decline in the last 12 months.

Gold Cools Off After Explosive Rally
After an impressive rally fueled by the Fed's soft rhetoric and geopolitical tensions, gold retreated slightly, taking a pause before the end of the quarter. The spot price of the precious metal fell by 1% to $2,631.39 per ounce. US gold futures also showed a correction, falling by 0.54% to $2,629.90 per ounce.

Gold's Best Quarter Since the Start of 2020
Despite the current weakness, the precious metal is ending the quarter with its best results since the beginning of 2020. Investors view gold as a reliable safe-haven asset amid high uncertainty in financial markets and escalating geopolitical risks, including instability in the Middle East.

Outlook
With oil prices falling and gold stabilizing, the energy and precious metals market remains in a zone of high volatility. Market participants will be watching the actions of major oil producing countries and how the global economy develops, which could determine the future trajectory of commodity assets in the next quarter.
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USD/JPY: Shigeru, Ueda, and ADP report

The yen is losing ground again. After nearly a 500-pip rally, the Japanese currency has been falling against re greenback again. On Monday, the USD/JPY pair hit a two-week low, dropping to 141.66, reacting to the unexpected results of the elections of the ruling political party's leadership. The Liberal Democratic Party is now headed by Shigeru Ishiba, who has taken over the government and announced plans to hold early parliamentary elections—one year ahead of schedule.

The yen responded positively to Ishiba's victory, as he is considered a proponent of tight monetary policy and raising interest rates to combat inflation. Importantly, he defeated Sanae Takaichi, a candidate from the highly conservative wing of the LDP (who was considered the frontrunner in the race), who, in contrast, advocated for a softer monetary policy.

In response to Ishiba's victory, the USD/JPY pair dropped 500 pips, falling from 146.50 to the mid-141 range. However, as is often the case with political factors, their influence fades quickly—by the end of the week, the pair's buyers had recovered almost all lost points. The "Shigeru factor" was swiftly priced in by the market, which is quite logical, given that the election of a new prime minister, even one with "hawkish" views, doesn't mean the Bank of Japan will automatically accelerate rate hikes. Ishiba will play his part, of course, but not immediately and not in the public sphere. Don't expect any "Trump-style" statements from the new Japanese prime minister, like those made by the former US president who openly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Meanwhile, the classic fundamental factors suggest that the Bank of Japan will not rush into the next round of rate hikes. In particular, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index reflected a slowdown in inflation: the overall CPI dropped to 2.2% in September (after rising to 2.6% in August), while the core CPI fell to 2.0%. This index is considered a leading indicator for determining inflation trends nationwide, so its downward trend is a worrying sign for USD/JPY sellers. Other macroeconomic indicators also disappointed. Japan's industrial production volume dropped by more than 3% in August on a monthly basis (-3.3%) against a forecast of -0.5%. Additionally, the volume of new housing starts in Japan declined sharply in September by 5.1% (against a forecast drop of 3.3%).

Such fundamental conditions do not support the tightening of monetary policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed this assumption in his recent speeches. He emphasized the need to maintain a wait-and-see strategy, "considering global economic risks and financial market instability." In his speech yesterday, he also reiterated a cautious stance. According to him, the regulator will pursue "appropriate monetary policy in order to sustainably and stably achieve the inflation target of 2%."

For the most part, the Bank of Japan's leader made general, conventional, and non-committal statements. But this is precisely what is weighing on the Japanese currency. Many of his policymakers (Naoki Tamura, Hajime Takata, and Junko Nagakawa) hinted in their September speeches that the central bank might raise interest rates again in the near future. They specifically pointed to wage indicators (which showed positive dynamics, rising by 1.1% year-on-year in June and 0.4% year-on-year in July).

However, Kazuo Ueda cooled the enthusiasm of USD/JPY sellers. He stated that the October data on service prices "will be key in determining whether inflation is accelerating." Only after a thorough analysis of this data, the regulator will shed light on whether any policy changes can be expected.

In other words, the head of the Bank of Japan cast doubt on another rate hike this year, though he did not rule out such a scenario. This indecisiveness from Ueda disappointed USD/JPY sellers. So, the yen ceased to act as a "driving force" in the USD/JPY pair.

All of this suggests that a resumption of a downward movement is only possible if the US dollar weakens. The instrument is following the dollar index, which in turn is awaiting the key report of the week—the US nonfarm payrolls to be published the day after tomorrow, on October 4. I remind you how traders reacted to the ADP report, which came out in the green today, reflecting the creation of 144,000 jobs in the private sector. On the one hand, this is a relatively modest result. On the other hand, most experts expected this figure to be around 124,000. This has sparked hope among dollar bulls that nonfarm payrolls will also be in the green. In that case, the likelihood of a 50-point rate cut at the November meeting will drop to 20-15%, and the dollar will receive additional (and quite significant!) support.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has approached the resistance level of 145.30 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). It would be advisable to enter long positions after buyers break above and consolidate above this level. In that case, the next medium-term target for the upward movement will be 147.00, which is the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame.
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Middle East conflict steals the show as Tesla and Nike reports leave investors cold

S&P 500 remains flat amid Middle East tensions and job data concerns
The U.S. stock index S&P 500 ended Wednesday's trading session nearly unchanged as tech stocks managed to gain, but investors remained cautious due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and anticipation of critical U.S. employment data expected later this week.

Nvidia's gains offset by Tesla's drop
A rise in Nvidia shares by 1.6% provided support to the S&P 500's tech sector. However, Tesla shares declined by 3.5% after the electric vehicle manufacturer reported quarterly vehicle deliveries that fell short of market expectations.

Market eyes on the Middle East
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East after Israel vowed to retaliate for Iran's missile attack on Tuesday. U.S. President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that he would not back an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities in response to the attack and urged Israel to act "proportionately."

Labor market remains resilient
Early Wednesday, data showed that U.S. private sector jobs increased more than expected in September, suggesting continued strength in the labor market. Still, traders remain focused on the upcoming non-farm payrolls report due Friday, as well as Thursday's jobless claims data, which could further influence market expectations.

With the market in a state of suspense, any surprise data or geopolitical developments could serve as a catalyst for volatility in the days ahead.

Investors brace for earnings season and Fed decisions
U.S. stock indices saw little change on Wednesday as investors prepared for an upcoming wave of earnings reports and Federal Reserve decisions. "We're about to see the employment report on Friday, and then next week kicks off the earnings season," commented Michael O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist at JonesTrading in Stamford, Connecticut.

Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq barely budge
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 39.55 points, or 0.09%, to close at 42,196.52. The S&P 500 edged up 0.01%, gaining just 0.79 points to end at 5,709.54. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 14.76 points, or 0.08%, to 17,925.12.

Fed's unexpected move fuels September rally
The stock market wrapped up September with strong gains after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points to support the labor market. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed 19.7% year-to-date.

The probability of another 25 basis point cut at the November FOMC meeting now stands at 65.7%, up from 42.6% a week earlier, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

Major banks to lead earnings season
JPMorgan Chase and other banking giants will kick off the third-quarter earnings season on October 11, setting the tone for the broader S&P 500 as investors look for signs of stability amid economic uncertainty.

Dockworkers strike paralyzes U.S. ports
Meanwhile, a strike involving 45,000 dockworkers, which has brought shipping at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports to a halt, entered its second day on Wednesday. Negotiations between the unions and employers have yet to be scheduled, according to sources.

Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that the strike is costing the U.S. economy approximately $5 billion per day, intensifying concerns over potential supply chain disruptions.

The market remains on edge as investors await further updates that could impact corporate earnings and broader economic trends.

Nike disappoints Wall Street: shares plunge after withdrawing revenue forecast
Nike shares dropped sharply by 7% on Wednesday after the sportswear giant pulled its annual revenue target, leaving investors puzzled over the company's turnaround timeline under new CEO Elliott Hill.

Investor day canceled, adding to uncertainties
In addition to retracting its revenue forecast, Nike also canceled its investor day scheduled for November 19. The company's CFO, Matthew Friend, explained that the decision would provide Hill with "the necessary flexibility to review Nike's strategies and business trends," hinting at possible restructuring.

How does Nike stack up against competitors?
Currently, Nike's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 27.98, compared to 27.08 for Deckers and 35.14 for Adidas. Despite the recent decline, Nike shares, trading at $82, have still recovered 10% since the announcement of Hill's appointment in September.

Industry insiders optimistic about Hill's appointment
The CEO of British retailer JD Sports expressed confidence in Hill, stating, "It's good to have someone from within the industry who knows Nike and understands its product range." This suggests that Hill's familiarity with the company could help navigate Nike through its current challenges.

Competitors suffer alongside Nike
Other sportswear stocks weren't immune to the market's jitters: Under Armour and Lululemon both declined by over 2%, while Foot Locker fell by 3%, reflecting broader concerns about supply chain disruptions and sales slowdowns.

Humana plunges amid Medicare warning
Elsewhere, shares of Humana Inc. tumbled 11.8% after the health insurer warned that it expects a drop in enrollment in its top-rated Medicare Advantage plans for seniors in 2025. This statement has sparked worries about the broader healthcare sector's outlook.

With markets digesting these developments, Nike's outlook remains under scrutiny as the company grapples with uncertain forecasts and growing competition.

Wall Street braces for key Fed moves as global markets wobble
Global markets displayed mixed performance as traders digested U.S. labor data and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve. "Given the latest job numbers in the private sector, the bond market is betting against a 50 basis point cut at the next Fed meeting," noted Matt Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Indices move sideways
The MSCI global equity index (MIWD00000PUS) dipped by 0.04% to 845.49 points, reflecting overall cautious sentiment. Earlier, the STOXX Europe 600 managed to close with a slight gain of 0.05% at 521.14 points.

Oil prices under pressure, but holding ground
On the energy front, U.S. crude oil rose 0.39% to $70.10 per barrel, while Brent finished the day at $73.90 per barrel, up 0.46%. Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the upward momentum was capped by a significant increase in U.S. crude inventories.

Treasury yields extend gains
U.S. Treasury yields continued their upward trajectory: the benchmark 10-year yield climbed by 4 basis points to 3.783%, compared to 3.743% the previous day. Meanwhile, 30-year bonds saw a 4.9 basis point rise, closing at 4.1299%. The 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to Fed rate expectations, edged up 1.4 basis points to 3.6352%.

Yield curve hints at cautious optimism
A closely-watched segment of the U.S. yield curve, measuring the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, remained at a positive 14.6 basis points — suggesting that investors are not pricing in a near-term recession.

Dollar strengthens amid market uncertainty
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.34% to 101.60. The euro slipped by 0.16% to $1.1049, while the dollar surged 2% against the Japanese yen, reaching 146.43.

Gold loses its luster
In the precious metals market, spot gold declined by 0.14% to $2,659.22 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell by 1.02% to $2,640.00. Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar weighed on gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

With traders balancing geopolitical risks and economic indicators, market sentiment remains fragile, and any new developments could tip the scales in unexpected directions.
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Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy, Oil Rising: How the U.S. Balances Labor Market Gains and Geopolitics

Dow Ends Week at Record High, Nasdaq Shows Solid Gains
The Dow hit record highs on Friday, while the Nasdaq posted an impressive gain of more than 1%, driven by an unexpectedly strong increase in U.S. employment, which somewhat allayed investors' fears about possible economic weakness.

Record Job Growth
September was the month with the most significant job growth in the past six months. According to the published data, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. Experts took this report as a signal that the economy remains resilient and does not lose momentum.

"The data confirms that we can expect stable economic activity in the fourth quarter," commented Peter Cardillo, chief economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

Impact on Interest Rates
The improving economic situation, however, may slow down the interest rate cuts that were previously expected. Cardillo noted that positive news from the labor market will most likely slow the process of further rate cuts.

Traders also adjusted their expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for November 6-7. The chance of a 50 basis point rate cut fell to 8% from 31% earlier in the day, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Small Caps, Financials Rise
Amid the broader market rally, small caps and financials stood out. The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%, while the S&P 500 Index rose 1.6%.

The trading session's results showed that despite the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's future actions, investors remain optimistic about the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Spirit Airlines Shares Plunge, Airlines Mixed
Spirit Airlines shares plunged 24.6% on news that the company may be in bankruptcy talks with bondholders. While Spirit plunges into crisis, other airlines are rallying. Thus, Frontier Group shares soared by 16.4%, United Airlines jumped by 6.5%, and Delta Air Lines rose by 3.8%.

Growth of leading indices
Friday's session ended with growth of the main American stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 341.16 points (0.81%), reaching 42,352.75. The broad market index S&P 500 also added 0.90% and closed at 5,751.07, and the Nasdaq Composite demonstrated growth by 1.22%, ending the day at 18,137.85.

Weekly results amid geopolitical instability
Although the main indices showed growth on Friday, their results remained modest for the week. Strong investor concerns are associated with the tense situation in the Middle East. The Dow added just 0.1%, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq also ended the week with a symbolic gain of 0.1%.

Energy on the rise
The energy sector showed notable gains thanks to a sharp jump in oil prices, which is also associated with political instability in the Middle East. The S&P energy index rose 1.1% on Friday and showed an impressive 7% gain for the week, which was the largest weekly gain since October 2022.

The dynamics in the markets highlight how geopolitical risks and corporate news can have diametrically opposed effects on different sectors of the economy.

Biden urges Israel to consider alternatives in the conflict
US President Joe Biden suggested that if he were in Israel's place, he would consider other measures besides attacks on Iranian oil facilities. He also said he believed Israel had not yet made a final decision on how to respond to Iran's missile strikes this week.

Rivian Shares Slide
Rivian shares fell 3.2% after reporting disappointing production data. The electric vehicle startup cut its full-year guidance and reported delivering fewer vehicles than planned in the third quarter.

S&P 500 Earnings Expectations
Investors are eagerly awaiting the start of the third-quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 next week. Particular attention will be focused on major financial players like JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock, which will report on October 11.

Stock Market Optimism
Investor optimism remains as the S&P 500 has posted a 20.6% gain for the year. Many are hoping that quarterly results will meet high expectations, supporting the continued rally in stock markets.

US Port Backlogs Expected to Ease
Ports on the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico have reopened, but shipping backlogs may take time to clear as logistical challenges persist. Advancing Stocks Outnumber Declining Stocks

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.72 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was even higher, at 2.20 to 1 in favor of advancing stocks.

Highs and Lows on the Stock Exchanges
The S&P 500 Index posted 33 new 52-week highs and just one new low. The Nasdaq Composite posted 98 new highs and 91 new lows.

Trading Volume on U.S. Exchanges Falls
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges on Friday was 10.91 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 12.03 billion. Despite this, global markets remained positive amid strong U.S. labor market data.

Global Markets and the Dollar's Rise
MSCI's global stock index rose, and the U.S. dollar hit its highest level since August. This came after an unexpectedly strong employment report eased investor fears of a possible economic slowdown.

Oil prices rise amid geopolitical risks
Oil prices ended the week with their biggest gain in a year, driven by the escalation in the Middle East and the threat of a wider regional conflict. However, further gains were curbed after US President Joe Biden urged Israel to refrain from an immediate attack.

Strong US employment data
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 254,000 new jobs in September, well above the 140,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and data for August were revised up, indicating a stable US labor market.

Reaction to Treasuries and Fed actions
Amid a stronger-than-expected employment report, US Treasury yields rose to their highest since August. This has caused traders to recalibrate their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point in November has risen to 97%, up from 68% the day before, according to CME Group's FedWatch data.

Economic data continues to have a significant impact on the market, causing forecast revisions and creating dynamic changes in investor strategy.

Market Reaction to Strong Employment Data
U.S. stocks responded positively to strong employment data despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish sentiment. This, according to Julia Hermann, a strategist at New York Life Investments, highlights the fact that investors are now focusing on economic growth, even if it comes with higher interest rates.

"The market has been able to adapt well to this shift, which suggests a constructive approach to the economic outlook," Hermann said, pointing to strong moves in Treasuries and stocks in recent days.

Economic relief: Ports reopen
The US economy also got some breathing room as ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast reopened. Dock workers and port operators reached a wage agreement, ending one of the sector's largest strikes in 50 years. However, clearing up the backlog of supplies that has accumulated during the strike could take some time.

Global indices and rising oil prices
The MSCI World Index ended the day up 0.57%, reaching 847.12 points, although it had fallen 0.7% for the week. The European STOXX 600 index also showed gains, adding 0.44%.

Investors continue to closely monitor events in the Middle East. The question of Israel's response to the missile strikes launched by Iran is particularly acute. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it clear that Iran and its allies have no intention of backing down.

Oil Prices Rise
Oil prices continued to rise. US crude rose 0.9% to $74.38 a barrel, while North Sea Brent added 0.55% to end the day at $78.05 a barrel. This highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks weighing on energy markets.

The current situation in global markets shows that investors are balancing positive economic news with increasing tensions on the international stage.

The dollar strengthens amid strong employment data
The US dollar showed significant strength, reaching a seven-week high. This is due to the fact that fresh employment data forced traders to revise their expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The dollar is on track to end the week with the largest gain since September 2022.

Dollar Index Movement
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major global currencies, rose 0.56% to 102.48. The euro, by contrast, weakened 0.5% to $1.0976, while the Japanese yen lost 1.25%, pushing the dollar higher to 148.77 yen.

Treasury yields rise
U.S. Treasury yields also rose. The benchmark 10-year note rose 12.5 basis points to 3.975%, while the 30-year yield rose 7.9 basis points to 4.259%. Yields on the 2-year note, which is most sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, rose particularly sharply, adding 21.8 basis points to 3.9321%.

Gold Slips
Gold prices slipped on the back of a strong U.S. jobs report that reduced the likelihood of a major Fed rate cut. Spot gold lost 0.23% to $2,649.89 an ounce. U.S. gold futures also fell, falling 0.38% to $2,647.10 an ounce.

The economic outlook has put precious metals, traditionally seen as safe havens, under pressure as investors reassess their expectations for U.S. monetary policy.
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Who Will Hold Wall Street Back? Amazon and Alphabet Under Attack, Pfizer Takes the Lead

Wall Street Closes in the Red as Investors Brace for New Challenges
US stock markets closed Monday with the major indexes down about 1% as Treasury yields rose, driven by traders' revised forecasts for the Federal Reserve's future policy and concerns about the impact of instability in the Middle East on global oil prices. Escalation and anticipation of new data

Market participants continue to analyze economic indicators and prepare for the start of the earnings season for major companies. Additional concerns are caused by the approaching Hurricane Milton, which is expected to reach the United States in the coming days. Recall that Hurricane Helene, which recently swept across the country, claimed more than 200 lives and affected six states, leaving significant damage and requiring large-scale restoration work.

Corporate news: a blow to the giants
Investor sentiment worsened after a US court decision against Alphabet, which will have to reconsider its approach to mobile applications. This is due to the need to expand the capabilities for Android users, which may affect the company's profitability. In turn, analysts' forecasts caused a decline in the shares of such tech giants as Amazon and Apple.

Rising bond yields: Fed rate revision
Friday's employment report turned out to be more optimistic than expected, which prompted market participants to revise their expectations regarding future Fed decisions. Traders have now virtually ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in November, with an 86% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Moreover, there is a 14% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Record 10-Year Note Yield
The adjustment in interest rate expectations has led to a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. For the first time in two months, the yield on 10-year US government securities has exceeded 4%, which has become an additional factor of pressure on the stock market.

Experts continue to monitor the situation and predict possible fluctuations depending on new macroeconomic data and corporate reports, which can determine the further direction of the markets.

Investors await key economic signals
The financial world is eagerly preparing for the publication of the consumer price index for September and the start of the third quarter earnings season, which can set the direction for the markets in the coming months. Attention is also focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting next month. With the first quarterly earnings results from major banks already underway, market participants will be closely monitoring the sector to assess the economic situation and possible regulatory measures.

Geopolitics heighten risks in the Middle East
In parallel with economic expectations, tensions in the Middle East are increasing, causing concern among investors. The Lebanese group Hezbollah has launched rocket attacks on northern Israel, including the major port city of Haifa. In response, the Israeli military is demonstrating its readiness to expand ground operations in southern Lebanon. Concerns about a possible escalation of the conflict are adding to the turbulence in stock and commodity markets.

Leading indices decline
The main US indices closed trading with significant losses on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.51 points (0.94%) and closed at 41,954.24. The broad S&P 500 fell 55.13 points, or 0.96%, to 5,695.94, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 213.94 points, or 1.18%, to end the day at 17,923.90.

Fear Index Soars
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often seen as a gauge of market uncertainty and panic, jumped 3.4 points to 22.64, its biggest one-day gain in a month and a half and its highest close since early August, signaling heightened nervousness among market participants.

Energy Gains on Oil Price Jump
Of the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, only energy ended the day in the green, up 0.4%. Oil prices continued to rise amid concerns about potential supply disruptions due to the escalation in the Middle East, leading to a fifth straight day of gains for U.S. crude futures, which rose 3.7%.

Worst Losers: Utilities and Communications
Utilities were the worst performers among all sectors, falling 2.3%. The communications sector was also hurt by a significant decline in Alphabet shares, with the tech giant's stock falling 2.5%, continuing a string of negative news for the company.

Stock analysts continue to closely monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that could impact further market dynamics in the coming days.

Giants Fall: Apple and Amazon Under Pressure
One of the most notable moves in the market was a sharp decline in Apple shares after Jefferies analysts changed their outlook on the stock from a "buy" to a "hold." As a result, the company's shares fell by 2.3%, which was the largest decline among the components of the S&P 500 index on the day. Following it, Amazon shares also came under pressure, ending the trading session with a decline of 3%. This happened against the backdrop of a rating downgrade by Wells Fargo, which increased investor pessimism towards the e-commerce giant.

Generac in the Spotlight Amid Hurricane
At the opposite extreme of the index, Generac Holdings was the company whose shares soared by 8.52%. The growth was caused by increased demand for generators and backup power systems, which is associated with expectations of another hurricane approaching the United States. Investors are betting that demand for the company's products will increase significantly in the event of major disruptions and power outages.

Pfizer on the Rise with Activist Investor
Shares in pharmaceutical giant Pfizer rose 2% after news that hedge fund Starboard Value had acquired a stake in the company worth about $1 billion. The entry of a major shareholder known for his active influence on the management of companies has fueled optimism among investors who expect the new strategic stake could spur growth.

Air Products and Chemicals Succeeds: Mantle Ridge's Bet
Shares in Air Products and Chemicals also saw a strong move, closing with an impressive 9.5% gain after news that hedge fund Mantle Ridge had increased its stake in the company, raising expectations for a positive change in the company's strategy.

Overall Market Sentiment: Bearish sentiment prevails
Despite positive results from some companies, the overall market sentiment remained negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 2.73 to 1. There were 222 new highs and 55 new lows on the day, highlighting the significant volatility in the market.

On the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the picture was even grimmer, with 2,988 stocks ending the day in the red against 1,292 gainers, reflecting a ratio of 2.31 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 34 new yearly highs and just two new lows, while the Nasdaq reported 83 highs and 118 new lows, highlighting the bearish sentiment prevailing among market participants.

Trading Volumes Decline
Trading volume on U.S. stock exchanges totaled 11.39 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 12.06 billion shares. The decline in activity points to uncertainty among market participants, who are likely to take a wait-and-see approach ahead of upcoming economic and corporate events.

Global Markets Under Pressure: U.S. Bond Yields Rise
Global stock indices began the new week in negative territory, while U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise steadily. Benchmark 10-year bonds rose above 4%, signaling to investors that the Federal Reserve may be changing its monetary policy. The gain was the highest since early August and confirmed that market participants are preparing for a less aggressive rate cut by the Fed.

Yields hit record high after strong employment data
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.033%, the highest since August 1 and the first time it has been above 4% since August 8. The reason was last Friday's employment report, which was much better than expected and significantly changed expectations for the central bank's next steps. Investors believe that the Fed may take a more cautious stance and avoid sharp rate cuts, which has led to a revision of market forecasts.

Rate change probability: the market has adjusted expectations
The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is now estimated at 84.6%, and the chances that the regulator will leave rates unchanged have increased to 15.4%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week ago, the market was confident that a 25 basis point cut was imminent and even priced another, larger 50 basis point cut at 34.7%.

Strategists Warn of a Possible Reversal
"The market has changed its outlook dramatically, from expecting a significant rate cut in November to expecting rates to remain unchanged," said Gennady Goldberg, chief rates strategist at TD Securities in New York. He said the shift in expectations occurred in just a few days, amid positive macro data that has forced investors to rethink their positions.

"It would be surprising for the Fed to back off from further cuts so quickly after the recent 50 basis point cut," Goldberg added. He stressed that the market is still in flux and much will depend on data in the coming weeks.

Outlook for the Future: Cautious Optimism or Pause?
Financial analysts agree that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take any drastic steps, given that the recent rate cuts have already caused significant volatility in the markets.

Instead, the regulator may prefer to wait and see how previous decisions affect the economy and inflation. At the same time, some market participants warn that current expectations may change again if future economic data is not as optimistic as the latest employment figures.

The market situation remains tense, and any change in expectations could affect Treasury yields, which in turn will affect stock performance and overall volatility.

US markets close in the red: only the energy sector showed growth
Trading on Wall Street on Monday ended with quotes falling, and only the energy sector was able to stay in positive territory. Shares of energy companies included in the S&P 500 index showed growth amid continuing rise in oil prices. This is due to concerns that the deepening crisis in the Middle East could lead to disruptions in the supply of raw materials and restrictions on exports.

Global indices under pressure: MSCI goes into the red
The MSCI world share index lost 3.66 points (0.43%), falling to 843.74. This was the fifth decline in the last six trading sessions. The tense situation in global markets reflects increasing caution among investors ahead of important economic data. At the same time, the European STOXX 600 index managed to break into positive territory, closing with a gain of 0.18%. Despite this, the rise was limited due to pressure on sectors sensitive to interest rate changes, such as real estate and utilities.

Treasury yields again went up
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds jumped by 4.3 basis points, reaching 4.024%. This follows a recent revision to expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path. Short-term 2-year notes, whose yields are closely linked to interest rate expectations, also rose 5.7 basis points to 3.989%. Earlier in the session, their yield rose to 4.027%, the highest since August 20.

Yield Curve Signals Sentiment Shift
Investors are closely watching the behavior of the Treasury yield curve, which is considered an important indicator of economic expectations. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields, which has been inverted for some time, is now positive at 3.3 basis points.

This is the first time the curve has shown a sustained increase since briefly falling into negative territory on September 18. An inversion of the yield curve is traditionally seen as a harbinger of a recession, and its return to positive territory may signal an easing of concerns about an economic downturn.

Awaiting Key Data: All Eyes on CPI
Economic uncertainty remains as key U.S. macroeconomic data is not due until Thursday. Investors are awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's next steps.

Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues said the central bank was now shifting its focus from fighting inflation to maintaining labor market stability. The announcement triggered a revision in market expectations, adding uncertainty to the near-term rate outlook.

Market participants are now taking a wait-and-see approach, hoping for more data to help clarify the path the Fed will take in managing monetary policy.

Top Fed Officials Set to Speak: Markets Await Signals
Market participants are eagerly awaiting speeches from several key Federal Reserve officials this week. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are scheduled to speak on Monday, which could shed light on the current sentiment of the Fed and provide additional clues about future rate management.

Kashkari: US economy showing resilience
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that despite signs of a slowdown, the labor market remains strong, supporting overall economic stability. He said the Fed's goal is to maintain current labor market conditions even as rates are lowered, which should support sustainable growth. The statements confirm that the Fed is prepared to tread carefully to avoid abrupt changes in the economy.

Oil Market Shows Solid Gains
Oil prices continue to rise amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further supply disruptions. U.S. crude oil rose 3.71% to $77.14 a barrel. Meanwhile, Brent crude also rose 3.69% to close the day at $80.93 a barrel. Energy demand is picking up, with traders keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East for fear of further disruptions to supply chains.

Dollar at a crossroads: currency gyrations continue
The dollar index, which measures its strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.05% to 102.48. The euro, meanwhile, was also down slightly to $1.0973. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened, rising 0.42% against the dollar to close the day at 148.09 yen after recently hitting a seven-week high of 149.13. The British pound also slipped, losing 0.22% to end the day at $1.3083. This points to continued volatility in currency markets, where investors are assessing the risks and prospects for monetary policy in the world's largest economies.

BoJ prepares for rate hike: wage growth will be key factor
The Bank of Japan said wage growth is becoming more sustainable, which is helping to boost consumer activity. As companies across the country pass on higher costs to consumers, the Japanese economy is moving closer to meeting the conditions for raising interest rates. This could be a significant step forward for the Bank of Japan, which has long maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy.

Analysts say that any changes in central bank policy could significantly affect sentiment in global markets. Investors will be watching the Fed's speeches and news from Japan to understand how events will develop and what actions the world's largest central banks may take in the coming months.
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PepsiCo Leads Gains, Tech Boosts Nasdaq as Investors Brace for Inflation Surprises

Tech Returns: Wall Street Ends Day on a Positive Note
U.S. stock indexes rose on Tuesday, partially recouping losses from the previous session. Investors turned their attention back to the tech sector as attention shifts to upcoming inflation data and the start of the third-quarter earnings season.

Recovering from the Crash: How Did Wall Street Overcome Monday's Slump?
The major indexes fell sharply earlier in the week amid rising Treasury yields, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and a reassessment of U.S. interest rate expectations. Each of the three major indexes lost about 1%.

However, falling bond yields sent the market into a buying frenzy on Tuesday, with attention once again focused on high-growth stocks that benefit from lower borrowing costs. As a result, investors increasingly bought shares of tech giants, which are traditionally sensitive to changes in the cost of capital.

Tech on the Rise: Palantir and Palo Alto Lead
The information technology sector led the S&P 500's gains, adding 2.1%. The biggest contributors were Palantir Technologies, which jumped 6.6%, and Palo Alto Networks, which gained 5.1%.

The Magnificent Seven Are Back: Nvidia Sets the Tone
Among the "magnificent seven" tech titans, Nvidia has attracted particular attention. Its shares soared by 4.1%, recording the largest daily gain in the last month. Other tech giants such as Apple, Tesla and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) were also in the green, adding between 1.4% and 1.8%.

Slight Growth Amid Expectations
Despite the positive mood, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 managed to rise only slightly compared to last week's levels. However, the tech sector continues to attract investors' attention amid expectations of new inflation data and corporate earnings reports that could set the direction of the market's future.

Confident Rise: Major US Indexes End the Day on a Positive Note
On Tuesday, US stock indexes once again demonstrated upward momentum, recouping some of the losses from the previous days.

The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.97%, rising 55.19 points to 5,751.13. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.45%, adding 259.01 points to 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 126.13 points, or 0.30%, to end the day at 42,080.37.

Rates Are the Key Driver: What's Happening to Trader Sentiment?
Despite the positive momentum, investors continue to closely monitor any signals that could hint at the Federal Reserve's next steps in monetary policy. A decline in Treasury yields has been a catalyst for buying in the tech sector, but uncertainty around interest rates continues to dominate the market.

Throughout the year, market participants have been held hostage by the Fed, scrutinizing every macroeconomic report for hints of a possible policy shift. The main question on investors' minds is: when and at what speed will the Fed begin its long-awaited rate cuts?

Expectations shift: All eyes on inflation data
Last week, economic data, including a stronger-than-expected employment report on Friday, forced the market to slightly revise its expectations. Investors began pricing in a lower probability of an aggressive rate cut. Instead of a 50 basis point cut, most analysts now expect the Fed to limit itself to a 25 basis point cut at its next meeting in November.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently pricing in a nearly 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November.

Crucial Benchmark: Inflation to Lead the Way
The next big move in this "expectations game" will come on Thursday, when the CPI data is released. It is these numbers that will be critical to understanding the Fed's next moves and how soon the regulator will begin to ease its tight policy. Any deviation from the forecasts can immediately affect the behavior of markets and investor sentiment.

In any case, interest rates will remain the focus of market attention in the coming days, and any changes in macroeconomic data will be closely monitored to see which way the scales will tip – towards further easing or maintaining tight policy by the Fed.

Markets at a Crossroads: Inflation and Employment Are Crucial Indicators for the Fed
Leading macroeconomic reports continue to be the focus of investors' attention, shaping expectations for the future policy of the US Federal Reserve. According to Jason Pride, head of investment strategy at Glenmede, it is the latest labor market data and the consumer price index (CPI) that will be the key benchmarks for the Fed ahead of their next meeting.

"If the CPI report comes in within the forecast range, this will be a signal for the regulator to limit the rate cut by 25 basis points in November," Pride said, commenting on the current expectations of market participants.

Sectoral confusion: who won and lost in the trading?
Amid the mixed movement of stocks on Tuesday, most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended the day in positive territory, but there were exceptions. Two sectors ended in the negative zone: materials and energy. The materials index (.SPLRCM) fell by 0.4%, which happened against the backdrop of a decline in metals prices. Investors lost optimism about possible measures to support the economy from the Chinese government, which led to a decrease in quotes in this segment.

Amid the general pessimism, shares of major Chinese companies listed on US exchanges also felt the pressure. For example, Alibaba Group, JD.com and PDD Holdings fell by 5.4%, 7.5% and 5.7%, respectively, following the decline of Chinese domestic indices.

Energy sector under attack: why did oil retreat?
The biggest losers were the energy sector (.SPNY), which fell by 2.6% - the largest daily drop since August 20. The reason is the correction in oil prices after their rapid rise at the beginning of the week. Concerns about slowing global demand and uncertainty around economic stimulus in China weakened support for oil, which was reflected in the quotations of energy companies.

Earnings season: the market awaits banking giants
Investors are also focusing on the third-quarter earnings season. This Friday, attention will be focused on large US banks, which will be the first to present their financial results. According to analysts at LSEG, the average earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies is expected to be around 5%.

PepsiCo Surprises: Earnings Beat Expectations
Among the companies that reported on Tuesday, PepsiCo stood out. The largest maker of beverages and snacks rose 1.9% after publishing adjusted earnings per share data that beat market expectations. Despite cutting its full-year sales growth forecast, investors took the company's results as a positive sign, which helped support the rise in its shares.

Amid growing interest in data and macroeconomic guidance, the market continues to balance expectations for Fed easing with concerns about global economic risks. The next earnings reports could be a determining factor for the future direction of stock markets.

Wall Street Trading: Investors Recover Losses Awaiting New Data
US stock markets ended Tuesday on a positive note after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted strong gains. With geopolitical pressure easing and tech sector signals up, stock indexes were able to partially recover from their previous declines. Total trading volume on US exchanges was 11.57 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 12.1 billion shares.

US Rally Overshadows Weak Chinese Stimulus
The rally in global markets was largely driven by a rally on Wall Street, which was able to offset investor disappointment over the lack of concrete support measures from China. Market participants are eagerly awaiting details on possible stimulus measures, but for now their attention is shifted to upcoming macroeconomic reports in the US and the start of the quarterly earnings season.

Technology lifts the index: S&P 500 is back in the game
US indices showed a confident rebound yesterday after falling by 1% the day before. A particularly powerful leap was recorded in the technology sector, where the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 0.97%, rising by 55.19 points, and closed at 5,751.13. In turn, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) strengthened by 1.45%, jumping by 259.01 points and ending the session at 18,182.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 0.30%, increasing by 126.13 points to 42,080.37.

Monday's decline: what caused it?
The decline at the start of the week was caused by concerns about the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a reassessment of expectations for the Fed's monetary policy. Strong data on the US labor market, published on Friday, increased concerns that the Fed will not rush to ease its policy, which led to a decrease in risk appetite among investors.

Waiting for a new signal: what will inflation show?
All attention is now focused on fresh inflation data, which will be published on Thursday. The consumer price index (CPI) will be an important marker for determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If inflation turns out to be higher than expected, this could reinforce current expectations that the Fed will take a tougher stance on interest rates.

Banking sector prepares for the start of the reporting season
Investors are also preparing for the start of the corporate reporting season. The largest US banks, which are traditionally the first to disclose their financial results, will give the start later this week. Attention will be focused on their comments on the state of the economy and the outlook for the monetary policy shift.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Markets?
With US indices recovering and geopolitical concerns easing, investor sentiment remains heavily dependent on upcoming macroeconomic data and corporate earnings. Inflation, the labour market and the Fed's strategy will all shape the trading dynamics in the coming weeks, impacting investors' appetite for risk assets and, therefore, the sustainability of the current rally.

European Markets Under Pressure: What Went Wrong?
European stock indices ended lower on Tuesday as investors were disappointed by the lack of concrete details on China's new fiscal stimulus. Market expectations were not met, leading to a fall in stocks focused on Chinese demand, such as miners and luxury goods makers.

Global Indicators: Who Managed to Hold Their Ground?
MSCI's global share index showed a small gain, rising 0.15% to 844.96 points, thanks to a partial recovery in the US and Asian markets. However, the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.55%, reflecting the general mood of pessimism on the continental markets.

Hong Kong in the epicenter of turmoil: Hang Seng index falls at a record pace
The main disappointment was the dynamics of Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which fell by 9.4% - the largest drop since 2008. This happened after the head of China's National Development and Reform Commission Zheng Shanjie, who assured that the country's economy is "confidently" moving towards its goals for 2024. Moreover, he noted that the authorities intend to direct 200 billion yuan (about 28.36 billion US dollars) to support regional projects and investment in infrastructure. However, investors were expecting much more, as the lack of concrete steps and new support measures has raised doubts about Beijing's ability to effectively counter the current economic downturn.

Chinese Stocks Slip: Mistrust of Government Words
After the end of the national holidays, Chinese stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI300 showed sharp declines, falling by 4.6% and 5.9%, respectively. These losses effectively "ate up" a significant part of recent gains accumulated amid expectations of a large-scale economic stimulus. The decline in indices was a response to the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese government's plans and the lack of clear signals about further economic stimulus.

Bonds and Rates: The US in Waiting Mode
Meanwhile, the US Treasury market saw a slight decline in yields, reflecting investor caution in an uncertain environment. Market participants continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's signals, trying to understand how macroeconomic data and the regulator's positioning will affect the trajectory of interest rates.

What's Next? Investors Look for New Benchmarks
Amid a general decline in stock markets, investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The focus remains on the upcoming inflation and corporate profit reports in the US. In the coming days, it is these data that will determine the further direction of both US and international indices. Any surprises, be they positive or negative, could trigger significant changes in the markets, especially against the backdrop of fragile confidence in the prospects for China's economic recovery.

While markets are looking for new reference points, the issue of trust in the actions of central banks and governments comes to the fore: their decisions can either support investor sentiment or exacerbate volatility in financial markets.

The intrigue remains: markets are wondering what the Fed will do
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in November is estimated at 87.3%. However, there is still a small chance - 12.7% - that the Fed will choose to leave rates unchanged. Just a week ago, the market had a different view: expectations for a rate cut were almost fully priced in, but uncertainty about the size of the next step has reduced the likelihood of a more aggressive easing by 50 basis points.

US Treasury yields remain stable
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, a key benchmark for markets, fell by 0.6 basis points to 4.02%. Such a small change indicates continued caution amid ongoing speculation about the Fed's next steps and the macroeconomic situation in the country.

Oil: from recovery to correction
After the recent rally triggered by geopolitical risks, oil prices have sharply corrected downwards. The main driver of the decline is easing concerns about supply disruptions amid the military standoff in the Middle East and improving weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. WTI crude lost 4.63% to $73.57 a barrel, while Brent crude also fell 4.63% to close at $77.18 a barrel.

Middle East in Focus: Netanyahu Expands Offensive
Military tensions in the Middle East continue, weighing on global markets. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that airstrikes had killed two key successors to the slain Hezbollah leader, in the latest escalation of the conflict. Meanwhile, the group's deputy leader left the door open for ceasefire talks, raising hopes for a possible easing of tensions. The comments came just hours after Israel expanded its offensive against Iran-backed militias.

Currency Markets: Dollar under pressure, pound and euro in positive territory
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was unchanged, closing at 102.48. Meanwhile, the euro showed a slight strengthening, adding 0.04% to $1.0978. The Japanese yen weakened by 0.07%, and the dollar rose to 148.29 yen per unit of the American currency. In contrast, the pound sterling strengthened by 0.13%, rising to $1.31, demonstrating confidence amid relative stability in European markets.

Uncertainty remains: what lies ahead for markets?
The current fluctuations in financial markets reflect the ambivalent mood of investors. Amid geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity markets, traders' attention is shifting to macroeconomic reports and upcoming central bank meetings. The publication of US inflation data and further signals from the Fed could become catalysts for both further growth and a new round of volatility on global markets.
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USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair pulls back earlier on Thursday after reaching its highest level since August, trading with a moderately negative bias.

The intraday pullback lacks a specific fundamental driver, and amid uncertainty regarding the Bank of Japan's rate hike plans, it is likely to remain limited. According to data released on Tuesday, Japan's real wages for August declined after two months of growth. Household spending also decreased, raising doubts about the strength of private consumption and the durability of the economic recovery.

Moreover, the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey, released today, revealed that the proportion of Japanese households expecting price increases within a year was 85.6% in September, down from 87.5% the previous month. Additionally, another report from the Bank of Japan showed that the CGPI – the Corporate Goods Price Index, which measures the price that companies charge each other for goods and services – unexpectedly increased to 2.8% year-over-year in September. At the same time, reduced import costs suggest that price pressure from raw material costs is easing. All these factors, along with pointed remarks from Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on monetary policy, have reduced expectations for further rate hikes. Consequently, this is generally expected to limit the yen's appreciation.

The U.S. dollar is moving toward a new eight-week high as traders fully assess the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. These expectations were reinforced by the minutes of the FOMC's September meeting, released on Wednesday, which indicated that in the face of high inflation, sustained economic growth, and low unemployment, some members would prefer only a 25 basis point rate cut. This continues to support the U.S. dollar, providing a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Today, before opening new directional positions, traders may want to wait for the release of the latest U.S. inflation data. The Core CPI – Consumer Price Index – will be released later during the North American session. This will be followed by the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday. These data could play a key role in shaping market expectations regarding the direction and size of the Fed's next rate decision, potentially boosting demand for the U.S. dollar and helping to determine the short-term trajectory for the USD/JPY pair.

For confirmation that the multi-week uptrend has ended, strong follow-up selling is needed.

Last week's breakout above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) favors the bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain far from the overbought zone and are gaining positive momentum, indicating that the most favorable direction for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside.

Therefore, any significant dip can be viewed as a buying opportunity near the 148.70–148.65 area. This zone should help limit the pair's decline to the key psychological level of 148.00. A break below this level could trigger technical selling, pulling spot prices to intermediate support at 147.35, with further declines toward the next round levels of 147.00 and 146.50.

Conversely, a push beyond the Asian session high of 149.54 could enable the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the psychological level of 150.00, and climb higher.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today is the second consecutive day of positive momentum for gold, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Gold continues to gain positive momentum as markets anticipate additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The sharp rise in weekly jobless claims in the U.S. indicates signs of weakness in the labor market, which could allow the Federal Reserve to continue reducing interest rates. This, in turn, leads to a modest decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which supports the upward momentum of gold.

Following the release of stronger-than-expected consumer inflation data in the U.S. yesterday, investors have ruled out the possibility of another substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. These developments, following stronger-than-expected inflation data, helped the U.S. dollar halt its corrective pullback from the mid-August high, posing a headwind for gold.

Today, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and statements from the Federal Reserve are key indicators to watch for short-term momentum.

Technical Analysis: A solid rebound from the psychological level of $2600 and a subsequent move above the $2630 level favor the bulls. Additionally, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory. This suggests that the path of least resistance for the precious metal is upward. Consequently, further strength toward the resistance level of $2656 and into the supply zone at $2672 appears likely. From there, momentum could lift the XAU/USD pair toward its recent high near $2700. If surpassed, this level could pave the way for the continuation of the established multi-month upward trend.

On the other hand, the Asian session low around the $2630 level serves as support. A break below this level could challenge the key $2600 support. A convincing break beneath this psychological level could signal deeper losses. The XAU/USD pair could then continue its corrective decline toward the next support zone near $2560, progressing toward the $2532 level before ultimately descending to the psychological level of $2500.
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Markets in election grip: Dow, S&P fall, Nvidia climbs steadily

U.S. Stock Market Wrap-Up: Election Anticipation and Investor Anxiety
U.S. stocks ended slightly down on Monday after a volatile trading session, with investors bracing for a decisive week as the nation prepares to choose its next president and the Federal Reserve gets set to release a key policy statement.

Final Push: Trump vs. Harris
In the final hours of the presidential race, candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris pulled out all the stops in an effort to secure crucial votes. Polls show a close race, and it may take several days to determine the winner.

Trump Trades Lose Steam
Some of the so-called "Trump trades" faced declines after recent polling showed Harris, a Democratic vice president, leading in Iowa. This led to a dip in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) ended up with a 12.37% gain, recovering from early losses of nearly 6%.

Harris's Odds Rise in Betting Markets
Following the Iowa poll, Harris's odds against the former Republican president increased on several betting sites, which many market participants view as a predictor of election outcomes.

"We'll need until at least Thursday to determine who won, so unfortunately, this week will likely be quite volatile," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York.

"Earnings are doing well, the Fed will likely lower interest rates, and the only true uncertainty is the election. Hopefully, it will be resolved sooner rather than later, so investors can get back to business as usual," Stovall added.

Wall Street Indices Struggle Amid Uncertainty
On Monday, major U.S. stock indexes slid into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell by 257.59 points, or 0.61%, closing at 41,794.60. The S&P 500 (.SPX) also declined, losing 16.11 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 5,712.69. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) joined the downtrend, shedding 59.93 points, or 0.33%, and ending at 18,179.98.

Bond Yields Continue to Slide
On the bond market, ten-year U.S. Treasury yields took another hit, falling 6.4 basis points to 4.299%, following an initial drop of 10 basis points. Investors anticipate a volatile week as they await election results and policy clarity.

Russell 2000 Gains on Falling Yields
With bond yields declining, the Russell 2000 (.RUT) saw a modest 0.4% increase, as lower borrowing costs tend to benefit small-cap stocks, which are seen as more likely to gain from lower rates.

CBOE Volatility Index Rises: Fear Index Holds Steady Near Highs
The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," climbed to 21.94, staying well above its long-term average of 19.46. It hovered near last week's two-month high of 23.42, reflecting heightened market tension over the pending election and potential economic fallout.

Fed Rate Cut Expected with Near Certainty
Heading into Thursday, investors are almost certain the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 98% chance of a rate cut and only a 2% chance the Fed will hold rates steady. This expectation has been priced into the market, heavily influencing investor sentiment.

Energy Sector Leads Gains Amid Oil Surge
Among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, energy (.SPNY) led the way, gaining 1.87%, buoyed by a rise in oil prices following OPEC+'s decision to postpone production hikes.

Nvidia Replaces Intel in Dow
Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) saw a modest 0.48% gain after news that it will replace Intel (INTC.O) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In response, Intel's shares dropped 2.93%, weighing on the Dow.

Marriott Slips on Lowered Profit Outlook
Hotel operator Marriott International (MAR.O) declined by 1.59% after lowering its 2024 profit forecast due to weak domestic travel demand in the U.S. and China.

Constellation Energy Takes a Hit Following FERC Rejection
Constellation Energy (CEG.O) performed the worst in the S&P 500, down 12.46%. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission denied a deal to expand capacity at Amazon's data center, which is directly connected to Talen Energy's nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, pressuring the utilities sector, which fell 1.21%.

Rising Stocks Outnumber Decliners on NYSE and Nasdaq
On Monday, advancers outpaced decliners on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of 1.37 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was a narrower 1.01 to 1 in favor of gaining stocks, suggesting a mild overall bullish sentiment despite general caution.

Highs and Lows: Mixed Market Momentum
The S&P 500 registered 10 new 52-week highs and four new lows, reflecting positive expectations in select sectors. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite saw 66 new highs but also 128 new lows, highlighting heightened volatility among technology and innovation stocks.

Trading Volume: Slightly Below Average, But Significant
U.S. trading volumes reached 11.31 billion shares, just under the 20-day average of 11.71 billion. This may indicate a cautious stance among market participants ahead of major events like the Fed meeting and presidential election.

Air France KLM Faces Downgrade and Stock Pressure
Shares of Air France KLM (AIRF.PA) fell after Morgan Stanley downgraded the airline from "equal weight" to "underweight." On Tuesday, the stock dropped roughly 2% at the start of the trading session.

Challenging Cash Flow Outlook for Air France KLM
Morgan Stanley noted that while Air France KLM's stock isn't overly expensive by historical standards, it trades at a notable premium to its peers among national carriers. This premium, combined with challenging free cash flow prospects, suggests a cautious outlook for the airline.

Third-Quarter Earnings in Europe: Surpassing Expectations but China Concerns Linger
Despite economic challenges, many European companies are surpassing low market expectations for third-quarter earnings, with investors rewarding top performers. However, concerns over weak demand in China continue to temper enthusiasm, prompting caution.

Lowered Forecasts Ease the Bar for Earnings Growth
Data from LSEG I/B/E/S shows that analysts revised down profit growth expectations by 380 basis points in the two months before the earnings season. Normally, such adjustments are around 100 basis points, but the substantial drop in projections has made it easier for companies to exceed expectations.

STOXX 600: More Companies Beating Expectations
So far, around 50% of companies in the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) index have reported their earnings, with approximately 56% exceeding forecasts. Citi equity strategists note that this figure aligns with the quarterly average, indicating that European firms are holding steady despite market turbulence.

U.S. Elections Add a Layer of Uncertainty for Europe
The upcoming U.S. elections add another layer of uncertainty, with analysts expecting that the resulting volatility could continue to impact European stocks as investors wait to see how the election outcome might influence the global economy.

Market Dynamics Shift: Reward for Outperformance and Penalties for Misses
This quarter, companies that have exceeded expectations are being notably rewarded by investors. On the other hand, those missing forecasts are feeling the pressure as the market takes a tougher stance on underperformance.

European Banks Boosted by High Interest Rates
European banks have enjoyed another strong quarter as persistently high interest rates continue to support profit margins. Even as the European Central Bank signals potential rate cuts, investor sentiment remains positive.

Higher Structural Rates: A Win for Banks
"Interest rates will structurally remain higher than in previous cycles," remarked Thomas McGarrity, head of equity at RBC Wealth Management. He believes this will benefit banks significantly, allowing them to sustain strong margins. "We're in a favorable position and won't be backing down," McGarrity added.

Financial Sector's Profit Growth Among the Highest
Data from LSEG I/B/E/S shows that the financial sector saw 20.6% profit growth in the third quarter, ranking it third among major sectors after utilities and basic materials. So far, 80% of financial companies have reported earnings that beat analyst expectations.

Economic Stagnation Hits Small and Mid-Caps Hardest
Meanwhile, Europe's economy remains in a state of stagnation. The industrial sector, particularly reliant on energy, faces challenges from rising costs and weak global demand. For small- and mid-cap companies focused on the domestic market, these issues create significant headwinds and unstable growth prospects.

European Stocks Historically Undervalued: Attractive Ratios for Investors
Currently, European stocks remain historically undervalued. The average 12-month forward P/E ratio stands at 13.6x, lower than the long-term average of 14.3x. Mid-cap stocks appear even more attractive, trading at a forward P/E of 12.7x compared to the long-term average of 15x. This undervaluation makes European assets appealing to investors seeking growth potential in stable markets.
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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold faced strong selling pressure today, dropping to the key level of $2,700—its nearly three-week low—within an hour before the European session.

The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, leads in the U.S. presidential race and is likely to become the 47th President of the United States. This development triggered aggressive selling of the yellow metal and a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar.

Additionally, concerns over deficit spending and expectations for less aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, contributing to divestment from gold.

Technical Analysis

The $2,725–$2,720 level continues to act as immediate strong support. A break below this region could accelerate the decline, potentially testing levels below the key $2,700 level. This level aligns with the lower boundary of the short-term upward trend channel, extending from late July into early August. A decisive break below this threshold would pave the way for a deeper correction from the recent all-time high reached last week, likely dragging the XAU/USD pair toward the next significant support zone around $2,675.

On the other hand, the $2,750 level now serves as the immediate hurdle. A move above this level could lift the price to the next barrier at $2,790 or the all-time high reached last month. Beyond this, the key $2,800 level is expected to act as a critical pivot point. Sustained strength beyond this threshold would set the stage for resuming the well-established upward trend.

Market Sentiment

Adding to the pressure, the risk-on sentiment—evidenced by a strong rally in U.S. stock futures—indicates that gold, as a safe-haven asset, faces a downward path of least resistance.
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Trump 2.0 - Markets Explode: Dow, S&P, Nasdaq Hit Record Highs!

Trump Back in the White House: Record Growth on Wall Street

On Wednesday, U.S. stock indexes showed a sharp rise, reaching record levels, after Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election in a sensational victory. Four years after leaving the political arena, he returned, surprising many analysts and investors.

Strong Start: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Reach New Highs
The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite indices ended the day at historic highs. Investors responded enthusiastically to the prospect of tax cuts and possible deregulation, anticipating that the new president will continue to express his views on a wide range of issues, from the dollar's exchange rate to the state of the stock market. However, increases in import tariffs, which Trump may initiate, raise concerns about inflation and budget deficits.

"Trump Trades" in Action: Bond Yields and Record Bitcoin
Investor optimism led to higher yields on U.S. government bonds, with the base yield on 10-year treasury bonds reaching a four-month high at 4.479%. Bitcoin also saw record highs, exceeding the $76,000 mark. The dollar also showed significant growth, recording its largest single-day percentage gain since September 2022.

Investors' Forecasts and Expectations
"Investors seem to have been adjusting their portfolios to capture some of the risk exposure in anticipation of an outcome that seemed unlikely," said Mark Luschini, Chief Investment Strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

Trading Results: Wall Street Celebrates
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 1,508.05 points, or 3.57%, reaching 43,729.93. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose by 146.28 points, or 2.53%, to 5,929.04, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 544.29 points, or 2.95%, reaching 18,983.47.

Record Market Gains: Dow and S&P See Largest Single-Day Growth in Two Years
The impressive gains in the Dow and S&P 500 on Wednesday marked the largest single-day jump since November 2022. The Nasdaq index also hit a peak unseen since February, confirming the market's positive sentiment amid political shifts. This growth reflects investor expectations for economic reforms and policy changes with Trump's return.

Financial Sector Leads the Way
The financial sector stood out, surging by 6.16% and becoming the strongest of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500. Banking stocks showed substantial growth as banks may benefit from deregulation. The S&P 500 Bank Index (.SPXBK) increased by 10.68%, setting a new two-year high.

Small-Cap Stocks Also See Gains
The Russell 2000 index, which tracks small-cap companies, also rose by 5.84%, marking the largest increase since November 2022. This growth highlights expectations that small businesses will receive support through promised tax incentives and deregulation, reducing risks associated with import tariffs. However, experts warn that small companies remain vulnerable due to their reliance on credit and sensitivity to interest rate changes.

Interest Rate Risk: A Challenge for Small Business
Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields may pose additional challenges for small businesses, which typically rely more on borrowed funds. "If interest rates continue to rise and reach levels seen last October, around 5%, it could be problematic not only for small companies but for the entire market," Mark Luschini cautioned.

Fear Index Hits New Low as Inflation Concerns Persist
The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," fell by 4.22 points, reaching a six-week low of 16.27. This decline reflects market participants' confidence in stability, despite rising concerns over future inflation and potential interest rate hikes under Trump's economic policy.

Real Estate and Utilities Under Pressure
Sectors sensitive to interest rates saw a decline: real estate stocks fell by 2.64%, and utilities lost 0.98%. These industries were among the few showing a downturn, as investors weighed the potential for tighter Federal Reserve policy and its impact on future borrowing costs.

Central Bank Policy Adjustments Expected
In light of the current conditions, many analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points, a decision likely to be confirmed at the meeting concluding Thursday. However, traders have started adjusting their expectations, reducing bets on a December cut and the number of rate reductions expected next year, following CME's FedWatch index.

"Trump-Friendly" Stocks Rise: Media Group and Tesla in the Spotlight
Stocks that analysts believe may benefit from Trump's second term started to rally. Trump-affiliated Media & Technology Group rose by 5.94% after a volatile session, while Tesla surged by an impressive 14.75% following support from CEO Elon Musk, who expressed backing for Trump's campaign.

"Election Echoes" Throughout the Market
"The results of these elections are leaving traces in everything happening in the markets right now," noted Paul Christopher, Head of Global Investment Strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. Trump's promises to adjust tariffs, cut taxes, and deregulate business have encouraged investors to invest in assets that are likely to benefit from such an economic policy.

Currencies in Focus: Mexican Peso and Euro Under Pressure
Currency markets faced significant fluctuations as investment flows reflected concerns over Trump's potential trade policy. The Mexican peso dropped to a two-year low, while the euro was headed for its biggest daily decline since 2020, underscoring fears about possible tariffs.

Record Trading Volume: Yuan and Peso Take the Lead
Trading intensity reached new highs. By 10 a.m. Central Time, CME Group (CME.O) recorded unprecedented online trading activity for the offshore Chinese yuan, reaching a historic level of $33 billion. The Mexican peso also attracted increased attention, with the volume of futures contracts exceeding the usual average by 43%, highlighting investors' interest in instruments sensitive to tariff policy changes.

Political Support for "Trump Trades"
The strengthening position of Republicans in the Senate boosted investor confidence in supporting Trump's economic agenda. Although the vote count in the House of Representatives was still ongoing, a Republican victory could provide Trump with support for implementing key economic decisions, sparking market excitement.

Long-Term Global Economic Impact
Experts believe that the election results may have a far-reaching impact on U.S. tax and trade policy and could alter the status of the country's major financial institutions, which will inevitably affect assets worldwide.

Treasury Bonds Under Pressure: Inflation and Debt Concerns
Sales of U.S. Treasury bonds increased as investors anticipate higher consumer prices due to potential tariff hikes and expect government spending to raise debt levels. The yield on 10-year bonds reached a four-month high, pausing at 4.48%, before slightly pulling back.

Trump's Economic Agenda: Inflation and Deficit on the Horizon
According to David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, if Donald Trump successfully implements his economic initiatives, this could lead to budget deficits, tax cuts, and inflation due to new tariffs. "High inflation and increased deficits will inevitably push long-term interest rates up," the expert emphasized.

Cryptocurrencies Soar: Bitcoin Hits Record Highs
The cryptocurrency market responded positively to potential regulatory changes: Bitcoin surged to a new record as investors see Trump's victory as a chance to ease control over digital assets. BlackRock Investment Institute noted that Trump's second term could be accompanied by deregulation, including banking policy relaxation, which may boost the crypto market.

Record Overnight Trades: Robinhood Rides the Wave
Trading began before dawn. Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) recorded the largest overnight session since this feature launched in May 2023. Trading volume was 11 times the average as traders eagerly bought shares of companies likely to benefit from Trump's policies: from Coinbase Global (COIN.O) and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT.O) to companies linked to Trump and his supporter Elon Musk.

Contrasting Sectors: Energy and Crypto Rise, "Green" Stocks Decline
Political shifts have driven up shares of cryptocurrency, energy companies, and private prison operators. However, renewable energy stocks faced pressure as markets assess the likelihood of continued support under the new administration.

Congressional Control: What's Next for Trump's Economic Program
Now, investors are watching closely to see if Republicans can retain the House majority after securing the Senate. If Republicans maintain control in Congress, it could greatly facilitate Trump's agenda, potentially impacting a wide range of economic decisions.

Market Leaders and Laggards: Advances Outpace Declines
On the New York Stock Exchange, advancing stocks significantly outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of 1.51 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.84 to 1, emphasizing the optimistic market sentiment. The S&P 500 recorded 138 new 52-week highs and 12 lows, while the Nasdaq Composite set 456 new peaks, with 115 companies hitting new lows.

Record Trading Volume
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 18.68 billion shares, significantly exceeding the 20-day average of 12.16 billion. Such activity reflects unprecedented investor interest in the potential impacts of Trump's return as the market anticipates economic reforms and policy shifts.

Europe Under Pressure: Germany in the Crosshairs
The uncertainty over U.S. politics comes at an unfortunate time for the European Union. The potential victory of Republicans led by Donald Trump has heightened concerns over sweeping tariffs on European goods, which could reach 10%, dealing a blow to exporters. Germany, whose main export market is the U.S., faces particular risks, especially in the automotive sector, where higher tariffs could significantly erode the competitiveness of German manufacturers.

European Markets Decline: STOXX 600 and DAX Under Pressure
News of possible tariff threats triggered a negative reaction on European stock markets. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell by 0.54%, while Germany's leading DAX index dropped by 1.13%. Investors are reassessing their portfolios amid ongoing political uncertainty.

Focus on Central Bank Decisions
On Thursday, attention will be split between political changes and key monetary policy decisions. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's central bank are all set to announce their rate decisions, which could significantly impact global markets, heightening volatility and awareness of economic shifts.

Spotlight on the Fed: Rate Cuts and Powell's Commentary
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the interest rate by a quarter point at this meeting. However, investors' main focus will be on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says about new inflation risks linked to potential tariffs and immigration restrictions proposed by the Trump administration. Experts believe that the regulator's future steps may depend on how quickly inflationary pressures mount.

Interest in Bank of England Forecasts
The Bank of England is also considering a quarter-point rate cut, and analysts are focused on potential signals regarding future inflationary pressures. The new government budget, which could drive inflation, is a source of concern for markets, and investors are closely watching for any financial forecasts from U.K. authorities.

Sweden and Norway: Diverging Paths
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to make a more significant cut, lowering the rate by half a point. Meanwhile, Norway's central bank will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach, keeping rates unchanged as the market faces continued uncertainty.
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Political instability, rate cuts and Nvidia's record: what's happening in the market?

US markets end the day higher amid Fed rate cuts
US stock markets ended trading on Thursday with a confident rise, helped by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point (25 bps). This development strengthened the positive trend that began after Donald Trump returned to the US presidency.

Fed Cuts Rate as Labor Market Weakens, Inflation Nears Target
The Federal Reserve has decided to cut rates by 0.25%, citing signs of weakness in the labor market and a gradual move in inflation toward the central bank's 2% target.

Markets had largely expected the move, almost entirely factoring the rate cut into their forecasts for the November meeting. Investors are now watching closely for any follow-up comments from Fed officials that could shed light on the future direction of monetary policy.

Hopes for Economic Growth Push Indexes Higher
Expectations of a return to corporate tax cuts and Trump-led regulatory easing have fueled investor optimism, sending key stock indexes higher. The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 posted their biggest one-day gains in two years last trading session, while the Nasdaq was not far behind, continuing to move in the green.

Expert Comment: "Rate Cut Keeps Caps Level, But Eases Them"
"The Fed has kept the drama out of this eventful period," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Wisconsin. "A quarter-percentage point cut leaves the federal funds rate still in cap territory, but it's not as tight as it used to be." He said Trump's return to the presidency could bring a modest improvement in growth, but it would also likely lead to higher inflation. "The Fed will likely have to cut rates at a more cautious pace," Jacobsen concluded.

U.S. Indexes End Mixed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was virtually unchanged, down just 0.59 points to 43,729.34. The S&P 500 (.SPX) added 0.74%, rising 44.06 points to 5,973.10, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was the biggest gainer, rising 1.51%, or 285.99 points, to end the session at 19,269.46.

Communications Leads as Warner Bros Discovery Gains
Communications (.SPLRCL) was the biggest gainer among sectors, jumping 1.92%. This was helped by a massive 11.81% gain in Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) after the company reported unexpectedly strong third-quarter earnings, which encouraged investors to buy into the sector.

Financials Slow Down
The financial sector (.SPSY) was among the laggards, losing 1.62% after a strong rally in the previous session. In particular, banks (.SPXBK) fell 3.09%, reversing a significant gain from Wednesday. JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) also showed negative dynamics, with their shares falling 4.32% and 2.32%, respectively, putting pressure on the Dow.

Expectations for rate cuts weaken
Sentiment towards further rate cuts has become less optimistic in recent weeks. Economic data points to economic resilience, which could push inflation higher. Such a scenario is likely amid expected tariff changes and increased government spending under the policies of the new Trump administration.

Powell: Fed ready for changes
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the final decision on the central bank's December policy has not yet been made. However, he stressed that the Fed is prepared to adjust the course and pace of its actions given the current economic uncertainty.

Investors are keeping a close eye on Congress
One of the key factors attracting investors' attention remains the possibility of the Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress. If this happens, it will be easier for Donald Trump to advance his economic agenda, which will potentially increase support for the business sector and cause a positive reaction in the market.

Treasury yields retreat after rally
After a wild rally in recent weeks, 10-year Treasury yields retreated for a time. The benchmark yield, which hit a four-month high of 4.479% on Wednesday, eased slightly after the Fed's announcement to close at 4.332%.

Unemployment remains stable
U.S. jobless claims rose slightly last week, data showed Thursday, pointing to stable labor market conditions. The lack of a significant increase in unemployment is a boost to confidence in economic resilience, easing concerns about the need for urgent changes in monetary policy. NYSE and Nasdaq rally, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record highs

On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered losers by nearly twice (1.94 to 1). On the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.18 to 1. The S&P 500 posted 56 new 52-week highs and just 4 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 193 new highs and 88 new lows.

Trading activity on U.S. exchanges beats averages
Turnover on U.S. exchanges reached 16.78 billion shares on Thursday, well above the average daily volume of 12.46 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.

MSCI Global Index Continues to Rise
The MSCI Index of global equities (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.9% to a new record high, signaling continued appetite for global markets amid a pickup in economic activity.

European Markets Rise
Europe's STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) rose 0.6% following a strong start to Asian trading. The index was also supported by Chinese blue chips, which jumped 3% (.CSI300). Investor sentiment was boosted by expectations of more stimulus measures, which outweighed concerns over escalating trade tensions.

Corporate Tax and Deregulation Optimism
"Equities are reflecting expectations of lower corporate taxes and reacting positively to the prospect of deregulation, which will benefit earnings," said Naomi Fink, chief strategist at Nikko Asset Management. Companies across industries see new growth potential in the policy, spurring further investor interest in key assets.

Treasury yields continue to decline
U.S. Treasury yields continue to decline following the Fed's rate cut, although analysts warn that the process may be less sustainable than expected under the new Trump administration.

Republican victory: potential implications for growth and inflation
There is growing consensus among economists that a Republican election win could be a catalyst for more accommodative fiscal policy. Matthias Scheiber, head of portfolio management at Allspring Global Investments, believes that the combined effect of new tariffs and stimulus could boost the economy but also increase inflation pressures.

Yields: Reaction to rate cuts
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 9 basis points to 4.3355% on Thursday, after rising 14 basis points the previous day. The 30-year yield also fell more than 6 basis points to 4.5393% after a big jump the previous day.

Dollar Loses Ground Amid Corrections
The dollar fell 0.7% against a basket of major currencies, reversing Wednesday's biggest one-day gain in more than two years. Many traders began to close positions on a Trump victory and were looking ahead to the Fed's upcoming decision, weighing on market sentiment.

Euro Strengthens Amid Political Change in Germany
The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0803, partly reversing a 1.8% average loss the previous day. The euro is recovering as investors digest the latest political developments in Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the collapse of the coalition government and likely to lead to early elections. Euro Strengthening Forecasts

Deutsche Bank analysts note that while events in Germany are still in the early stages, potential political stability could strengthen confidence in the euro. Economic forecasts also point to possible positive effects if the new government adopts a more proactive fiscal stance.

German Bond Yields Rise
German 10-year bond yields rose 4.8 basis points to 2.441%, reflecting market expectations for future EU policy developments.

Bank of England cuts rates amid inflation risks
Meanwhile, the Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, its second such move since 2020. The regulator has signaled that further cuts will be gradual, given the risks of rising inflation following the new government's budget presented last week.

Pound sterling also shows gains
The British pound also regained some of its positions and rose by 0.8%, rising to $1.2986 after falling by 1.24% on Wednesday.

Norway, Sweden central banks stick to their previous course
Norway and Sweden central banks held their meetings on Thursday, which resulted in no significant changes for the currency markets, fully meeting analysts' expectations. Norges Bank decided to leave interest rates at a 16-year high, maintaining its commitment to tight monetary policy. At the same time, Sweden's Riksbank cut rates by 50 basis points, softening its approach to monetary policy.

Bitcoin at Record Highs
The Bitcoin cryptocurrency has rapidly recovered its recent losses and reached a new all-time high of $76,780 overnight. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump said that he would make the United States the "crypto capital of the world," which has increased investor interest in digital assets.

Gold and Oil Are Gaining Momentum Again
After a significant drop of more than 3% on Wednesday, gold showed confident growth, increasing by 1.8% and reaching $2,707.21 per ounce. Despite this, the price of gold remains close to its recent record high of $2,790.15.

Oil prices also showed positive dynamics after the sell-off caused by the US presidential election. Brent crude futures rose 0.6% to $75.40 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude rose 0.5% to $72.04 a barrel.

Nvidia Takes the Lead
The leading AI chipmaker rose 2.2%, helped by investor optimism that regulation and tax cuts will be eased following the Republican nominee's election victory. Nvidia's market capitalization reached $3.65 trillion, surpassing Apple's record high of Oct. 21 and becoming the world's most valuable company, according to LSEG.

Apple Strengthens the Market
Apple shares gained 2.1% on Thursday, taking the company's market capitalization to $3.44 trillion. The gains are part of a broader trend in tech, with the S&P 500 index of major tech companies gaining more than 4% over the past two days as Donald Trump wins the presidential election.

Nvidia Leads the AI Race
Nvidia has been the biggest beneficiary of the recent AI frenzy, outperforming giants like Microsoft and Alphabet. Nvidia shares have risen 12% in November and have tripled in value this year. Nvidia is steadily outperforming the world's biggest companies in the race to dominate computing power and cutting-edge technology.

Incredible Market Cap Growth
Today, Nvidia's market cap exceeds the combined value of giants like Eli Lilly, Walmart, JPMorgan, Visa, UnitedHealth Group, and Netflix. Analysts forecast Nvidia's quarterly revenue to increase 80% to $32.9 billion when the company reports results on November 20, underscoring its growing influence in the global market.

Tech trio: tussle for dominance
In June, Nvidia temporarily became the world's most valuable company, but was later overtaken by Microsoft and Apple. Today, the three tech giants are locked in a tight race for the top spot, with each remaining at similar market caps.
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Trump Victory Echoes: S&P 500 Breaks 6,000 on Positive Economic Trends

Markets Riding: Trump, Fed Rates Fuel Optimism
The S&P 500 briefly crossed 6,000 on Friday night, ending the week with its biggest gain of the year. Trump and his political outlook had a powerful impact on investor sentiment, raising hopes for favorable economic reforms.

Economic impact of rate cuts
Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut announced by the Federal Reserve this week have added confidence to stock markets. The Fed's actions have increased the appetite for growth, which could not but be reflected in the performance of stock indices.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) recorded their best weekly results since November 2023. Nasdaq, in turn, demonstrated its best week in two months, strengthening amid growing expectations for economic growth and higher corporate earnings.

Political changes: what does a Republican victory promise?
One of the key factors influencing stock markets has become the political situation in the United States. Donald Trump's victory in the election and the possible control of the Republican Party over the Senate and the House of Representatives create the preconditions for stabilization of the political situation. Many believe that this will facilitate the implementation of ambitious plans for tax cuts and deregulation, which in turn stimulates the growth of corporate profits and investment.

Trump and Tax Reform
Corporate tax cuts and deregulation were the main drivers of the Nasdaq's rally, with three straight days of record closings. As a result, the S&P 500 ended the week with its 50th record close this year, underscoring the strength of the current bullish trend.

Mike Dixon, head of research and quantitative strategy at Horizon Investments, said: "While the 6,000 mark is psychologically significant, given all the events of the week, I don't think it matters whether we close at 6,005 or 5,995. The market still put up an impressive gain."

So, it's been a very positive week for stock indices, with major events like the election and the Fed decision continuing to impact financial markets, creating positive expectations for investors.

Markets in the green: News that influenced the rally
This week brought a lot of positive news for stock markets, with investors reacting strongly to the improvements in the economy and politics. As one analyst emphasized, "this flow of good news is much more important than whether the indicator will be at 6000 or slightly below when the market closes." All this prevails over technical issues, highlighting the strong optimism among traders.

Indices on the rise: Dow at a record
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 259.65 points (0.59%), ending the day at 43,988.99. The S&P 500 added 22.44 points (0.38%), closing at 5,995.54, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 17.32 points (0.09%), reaching 19,286.78.

All three indices posted impressive gains for the week, with the S&P 500 up 4.66%, the Nasdaq up 5.74%, and the Dow up 4.61%.

Records and Strong Sectors
One of the highlights of the week was the Dow's historic performance, which surpassed the 44,000 mark for the first time. Salesforce stood out among the growth drivers, with shares rising 3.59% on the back of the company's plans to hire 1,000 new employees to expand its artificial intelligence business through its Agentforce tool.

Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and utilities were the best performers among the 11 S&P 500 groups. This came as Treasury yields continued to decline for a second session after a sharp jump in the wake of political events.

Fourth consecutive gain
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the week on a positive note, recording a fourth consecutive gain. This confirms that investors are confident that the market will continue to strengthen, despite possible political and economic risks.

Thus, the week turned out to be especially favorable for stock markets, supported by positive news, strengthening of large companies and lower rates, which together gave a strong impetus for further growth.

Market Trends: Yields and Tariffs
Despite positive moves in stock markets, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at a four-month high. This weighed on investors' expectations for the pace of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Markets adjusted their forecasts amid growing concerns about the administration's proposed tariffs, which could reignite inflationary pressures.

Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks post strong gains
The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks posted a phenomenal 8.51% gain for the week, the biggest weekly gain since April 2020. Experts believe that stocks focused on the domestic U.S. market are benefiting from favorable economic conditions, such as potential tax relief, less regulation, and less reliance on foreign trade and tariffs.

Consumer Optimism
US consumer sentiment indicators hit a seven-month high in early November, with the household expectations index rising in particular, reaching its highest in three years. Republicans are optimistic about the economic outlook, which is having a noticeable impact on confidence, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Problems in the Tech Sector
Despite the overall market growth, several large companies saw a noticeable decline. For example, Airbnb shares fell by 8.66% after the company failed to meet investors' expectations for third-quarter profit. Pinterest fared even worse, with its shares falling by 14% after disappointing revenue forecasts.

Chinese Companies: Declining Interest
Chinese companies' listings on US exchanges also lost value. Investors did not appreciate the latest fiscal support measures from the Chinese government. For example, JD.com shares fell by 6.99%, while Alibaba lost 5.94%.

Market Leaders and Losers
Amid these fluctuations, rising stocks significantly outnumbered falling stocks. The ratio was 1.7 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange and 1.21 to 1 on the Nasdaq, indicating that positive sentiment prevailed among investors despite some setbacks in large companies.

Markets on the Rise: New Records and Growing Volumes
The S&P 500 Index recorded 88 new 52-week highs and only 10 lows, while the Nasdaq Composite surpassed the 211 new records mark despite 108 lows. Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges amounted to 15.46 billion shares, which was significantly higher than the average of 12.74 billion over the past 20 trading days.

The Fed and Expectations of Rate Cuts
Amid these records, positive economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve supported market sentiment. On Thursday, it announced a long-awaited 25 basis point interest rate cut, helping to bolster investor confidence. But the key question is how long the central bank can maintain this stance, as its actions will depend on how effectively inflation is brought down.

Inflation and Growth Expectations
The November 13 consumer price index report should confirm that inflation is continuing to decline, according to Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. U.S. inflation data has been an important indicator in recent months for the Fed as it tries to balance its policy between stimulating the economy and controlling prices.

Trump and Potential Tariffs: Risks to Prices
However, investors are concerned about potential tariff hikes proposed as part of Donald Trump's program, which could put pressure on consumer prices and add uncertainty to the economy. Meanwhile, economic data continues to surprise, with a recent report showing the U.S. economy grew by a robust 2.8% in the third quarter, another positive sign.

CPI forecasts: Moderate growth
Economists forecast the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 2.6% in October from a year earlier. That's up slightly from the 2.4% gain in September, which was the slowest in three years. Still, that pace remains well below the peak inflation levels seen in 2022 that prompted the Fed to raise rates sharply.

Inflation Impact on Fed Rates: New Forecasts
As inflation rises, perceptions of how the Federal Reserve will adjust rates in the future are changing. Market expectations have changed significantly since Donald Trump's election victory. According to federal funds futures, investors now expect rates to be cut to 3.7% by the end of 2025, up 100 basis points from September's estimate. These forecast revisions are based on new economic and political realities.

Rate Cuts as Growth Drivers
Expectations of future rate cuts are playing a major role in supporting growth stocks, along with strong corporate earnings results and optimism about artificial intelligence. Investors are betting that easy monetary policy will continue to spur growth, especially in sectors that are actively using new technologies and innovation.

Markets brace for more policy changes
However, the initial euphoria in the markets may come under pressure as Trump begins to reveal specific policy plans and appoint key figures. According to analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management, Trump's victory so far raises more questions than answers for investors. With each new statement from the presidential transition team, markets will test how these changes will affect the economy and financial flows.

Regulation and Opportunities for Wall Street
The expected policy changes have also generated waves of anticipation in the banking and financial sectors. In particular, financial institutions are counting on the loosening of regulations under the new administration. Wall Street is actively preparing to seize this opportunity, hoping for more lenient financial policies that will give impetus to further development and profit growth.

Trump and Lobbyists: Preparing for Regulatory Changes
After Donald Trump's election victory, financial trade groups are busy compiling lists of changes that they want to propose to the new president's transition team. Industry sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, say a list of proposals covering key regulatory issues is already being actively developed for delivery to Trump's team.

Industry Ready for Action
The process is the result of months of discussions between the transition team and various industry groups, lawyers, and lobbyists. The goal of these meetings, the sources say, is to lay the groundwork for implementing Trump's promises when he potentially returns to the White House in 2025. Reflecting the importance of these initiatives, several trade groups are willing to submit their proposals urgently.

Room for Aggressive Moves
The intensity of preparations for potential regulatory changes underscores the new administration's desire to act quickly and decisively, especially in key areas such as banking, where debate has already emerged over future rules and regulations.

Bank Groups Oppose Basel III Endgame
A major concern in the banking industry is the proposed Basel III Endgame rules, which would require large banks to hold significantly more capital to mitigate risk. The measures have already drawn criticism from banking groups, which have lobbied for months to reduce the requirements. Now they are hoping that the new administration will either roll back the rules or offer more flexible changes to ease the burden on financial institutions.

Banks Want Easier Regulation
U.S. banks are actively seeking ways to ease regulations, especially on issues that currently cause them the most trouble. The banks want relief from some tough requirements, including fair lending rules, which they continue to fight in court, according to sources. In addition, the financial institutions are pushing for easier annual stress tests for large banks and easier evaluation of mergers and acquisitions.

Easy Capital and Basel
Large U.S. lenders say that while they support the core principles of the Basel standards, the international norms for the banking industry, they want more flexible capital requirements. The changes would allow banks to stay within existing rules but reduce the burden on banks by allowing them more flexibility in decision-making, people familiar with the matter said. Discussions on the issues are still ongoing, and lobbying efforts are in the early stages.

Banking Regulatory Issues
Another major issue for banks is the tightening of their oversight by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). Under Rohit Chopra, the agency has stepped up enforcement efforts, causing further concern in the banking community. The CFPB is becoming a major focus for lobbyists seeking to soften the impact of such initiatives on banking institutions.
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Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 12, 2024

Despite the public holiday in the United States, the market remained active, and the euro continued to lose ground. The reason lies in the aftermath of the elections. While the outcomes of the presidential and Senate elections are clear, the distribution of seats in the House of Representatives remains uncertain. Yesterday, it was reported that the Republican Party is on the verge of securing a majority in both chambers of Congress.

This scenario implies that nothing would prevent the Republicans from passing a new tariff law, primarily affecting the European Union—already in a fragile state. Germany's economy seems to have narrowly avoided slipping into recession, though most economists believe it is inevitable and likely to begin next quarter. The introduction of higher tariffs by the U.S. would only exacerbate the European economy's issues.

In other words, political factors have retaken center stage, and investors are closely monitoring developments in the House of Representatives. With the vote count nearing completion, clarity is expected in the coming days. Should the Republican Party secure victory, the euro will weaken further. Conversely, if the Democrats gain the majority, a significant rebound could occur, potentially leading to a correction.

For now, macroeconomic data will play a secondary role. Moreover, with tomorrow's U.S. inflation report looming, the macroeconomic calendar remains relatively empty until then.
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Crisis on the Horizon? Politics and Economics Drown Dow, Nasdaq, Tesla

Profit-Taking Wave: Wall Street Indexes End Day Lower
The key U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Tuesday as investors sought to take profits after the recent rally that began amid the presidential election. Markets are anxiously awaiting fresh U.S. inflation data this week, which could significantly impact future price action.

Post-Election Records: Investors Assess Prospects
Stock indices have been on a tear since the November 5 election, buoyed by new President Donald Trump's promises to cut taxes and loosen business regulations. Market participants have been buying up shares, hoping that these measures will support economic growth and revive the corporate sector.

Inflation Concerns Have Cooled Enthusiasm
However, optimism in the market declined on Tuesday, as investors began to worry that the policies proposed by the Trump administration could trigger a rise in inflation. Amid these concerns, European markets also fell, losing 2%, after statements from the European Central Bank, who warned that higher tariffs from the United States could hurt the global economy.

Tesla and Others Lose Ground After a Jump
Some companies that investors had previously been buying up in anticipation of their rise under the new administration have retreated after reaching peaks. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares fell 6% on Tuesday, despite an impressive 40% gain since the election.

Economic growth is a positive sign, but bonds are under pressure
Karen Karniol-Tambour, co-chief investment officer at Bridgewater Associates, emphasized at the Yahoo Finance Invest conference that despite the risks, U.S. stocks remain attractive assets amid the expected sustainable economic growth in the U.S. She noted that this dynamic is supporting the stock market, although the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has already reached a four-month high, rising amid an expected review of economic policy.

Russell 2000 - from peak to trough
The Russell 2000 small company index (.RUT) fell 1.8%, although on Monday it finished trading at the highest level in the last three years. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields have added pressure on stocks as bond investors begin to price in the Trump administration's future policies.

Treasuries as a Worry Signal for Stocks
Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital, described the current situation as a difficult balance, with rising 10-year Treasury yields creating a headwind for the stock rally. "On the one hand, investors are cheering about the stimulus package, but on the other, the bond market is signaling its displeasure," he explained.

Ablin added that tariffs, tax breaks, and immigration restrictions could fuel inflation, something that is not lost on the bond market, which is sensitive to such developments.

Global Impact and Inflation Data Expectations
Ameriprise Financial Chief Economist Russell Price noted that U.S. stocks were also pushed lower by weakness in overseas markets and profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data. The consumer price index is due out on Wednesday, followed by producer price and retail sales data, both of which could shed light on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

These data add short-term risks for investors, Price said. "It's likely the anticipation of these numbers that is driving the modest declines we've seen in the markets today," he said.

Wall Street Closes Lower as Major Indexes Slip
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) ended the day down 382.15 points, down 0.86% to 43,910.98. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 17.36 points, or 0.29%, to close at 5,983.99, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 17.36 points, or 0.09%, to close at 19,281.40.

Amgen Under Pressure, Sliding Late
The biggest decliner on the Dow was Amgen (AMGN.O), which fell more than 7% amid a sell-off that intensified toward the end of the session. Amgen shares fell after Cantor Fitzgerald said it could cause side effects from its experimental obesity drug MariTide, which showed a 4% drop in bone mineral density.

Materials and Healthcare Down, Communications Gaining
Among the 11 key S&P 500 sectors, Materials (.SPLRCM) saw the biggest decline, falling 1.6%. The second-largest loser was Healthcare (.SPXHC), with Amgen accounting for a significant portion of the losses. In contrast, Communications (.SPLRCL) was in the green, gaining 0.5% on the day.

Fed Focus: Kashkari and Barkin Assess
The markets also took notice of statements from the Federal Reserve. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said current U.S. monetary policy remains "moderately restrictive" and is helping to slow inflation and the economy, albeit only slightly. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, meanwhile, said the Fed is prepared to take action if inflation risks intensify or the labor market shows signs of weakening.

Novavax Slips as Revenue Forecast Cuts
Biotech company Novavax (NVAX.O) shares fell 6% after the company announced it was cutting its full-year revenue forecast. The reason was weaker-than-expected sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, which disappointed investors.

Honeywell at its peak: Elliott Investment backs it
Meanwhile, Honeywell (HON.O) shares soared 3.8% to a record high. The rally came as activist investor Elliott Investment increased its stake in the company by more than $5 billion, giving investors confidence in the industrial giant's future growth.

Stocks on the market: More decliners than gainers
Declining stocks were significantly outnumbered on the New York Stock Exchange, with a ratio of 3.48 to 1. Meanwhile, the NYSE recorded 328 new highs and 101 new lows. Declining stocks also outnumbered advancing ones on the Nasdaq, with 3,012 of the 4,336 shares trading down and 1,328 gaining. The S&P 500 posted 55 new 52-week highs and 16 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite added 193 new highs and 129 new lows.

Volumes on the rise, Asian stocks under pressure
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 15.29 billion shares, above the 20-session average of 13.17 billion. Meanwhile, Asian stocks also fell on Wednesday, as a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields fueled worries ahead of key inflation data that could impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

Short-term bond yields rise, dollar strengthens
Short-term U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Tuesday, hitting their highest since late July. The move also helped the dollar strengthen, hitting a more than three-month high against the Japanese yen as the market reopened after the Veterans Day holiday.

Trump Policy and Inflation Expectations
Since Donald Trump was elected president, rising bond yields have been a clear trend as market participants anticipate that promised tax cuts and tariffs could lead to a larger budget deficit and more government borrowing. Such a scenario, analysts say, would also fuel inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates further.

Tug of War: Stocks and Bonds
Against this backdrop, the U.S. stock market enjoyed a record rally, but that optimism quickly turned to caution as bond yields began to rise. Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, noted that the move remains part of the so-called "Trump trade," which is based on the idea of more deficit spending. "However, as we have seen before, higher risk-off asset rates are starting to put pressure on equity valuations, creating a tug-of-war between the bond and equity markets," he added.

Bitcoin Returns to Record High: Betting on Trump's Crypto-Friendly Policy
Bitcoin is slowly but surely moving towards its all-time high, approaching the $90,000 mark. Its price is currently hovering around $88,195, reflecting market participants' expectations inspired by Trump's promise to turn the US into a global crypto hub. Investors are hoping that possible regulatory easing will give the cryptocurrency a new boost.

China in Focus: Commodity Market Weakening
Meanwhile, global commodities have come under pressure as traders are worried about China's economic outlook, which may have to contend with new trade tariffs from the US. The economic stimulus measures announced by Beijing have not yet inspired confidence in the ability of market participants to quickly recover the largest Asian economy.

Asian Markets Tumble
Asian markets are also down, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) down 0.9%, while the mainland China Property Index (.HSMPI) fell 1.3%. Chinese blue chips (.CSI) were unchanged. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) fell 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while Australia's (.AXJO) also fell 1.1%, weighed down by commodity stocks.

US Futures and Bond Yields: Sustained Tension
S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%, continuing their gains after an overnight 0.3% drop. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes hit 4.34%, the first time it has risen to 4.367% since late July. The 10-year yield remains at 4.43%, not far from the four-month high of 4.479% set immediately after Trump's landslide election victory.

Dollar on the cusp: Yen strength raises expectations of intervention
The dollar hit 154.94 yen for the first time since late July before falling back to 154.56 yen. That brings the dollar/yen pair closer to the important 155 yen threshold, which many analysts see as a potential point at which Japanese policymakers could intervene verbally to prevent the yen from weakening further.

Japanese policymakers ready to act
Last week, Atsushi Mimura, head of the Japanese Ministry of Finance's foreign exchange bureau, stressed that Japanese policymakers are prepared to act quickly if there are significant exchange rate movements, raising market expectations of possible intervention.

Dollar Index at Spring Highs
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six major currencies including the yen and the euro, settled at 105.92, just off Tuesday's high of 106.17 — the highest since early May.

Fed Rate Cut Prospects: Chances Dim
The chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a quarter point at its next meeting on Dec. 18 is now 60%, down from 77% a week ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The release of U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data later Wednesday could further weigh on those expectations. Economists are forecasting a 0.3% monthly increase in the core measure, which could dampen hopes for a rate cut.

Euro at one-year low
The euro is trading at $1.0625 after slipping overnight to $1.0595, its lowest in 12 months, reflecting the dollar's resilience amid expectations of a stronger US economy.

Europe under attack: Trump's tariffs will impact
As in China, concerns about US trade policy are growing in Europe. Trump said earlier that the EU would "pay a heavy price" for not importing enough US goods, putting the bloc's economy at risk and adding uncertainty to trade relations.

Copper prices fall: Demand weakens
On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices fell 2% to their lowest in two months. The drop reflected weakening demand for the metal, much of which comes from China, where the economy is also under pressure from global tariffs and domestic problems.

Oil remains under pressure: OPEC forecasts are cut
The global oil market is also going through difficult times. On Tuesday, OPEC revised down its forecasts for global oil demand growth, noting the slowdown in the Chinese economy and weakness in some other regions. Against this background, Brent crude futures rose by 0.2%, reaching $72 per barrel, and American WTI also rose by 0.2%, to $68.26, but remained close to monthly lows.

Gold tries to recover
On the precious metals market, gold strengthened slightly, adding 0.4% and reaching a price of about $2,607 per ounce. This small increase was an attempt by the metal to recoup losses after falling to a nearly two-month low in the previous session, caused by the strengthening dollar.
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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for November 14-16, 2024: buy above $2,553 (2/8 Murray - rebound)

Early in the European session, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around 2,563 below 2/8 Murray and within the downtrend channel forming since October 29.

On the H4 chart, we can see that during yesterday's American session, gold reached the area of 3/8 Murray and the 21 SMA, which acted as strong resistance in light of the US inflation data.

In the next few hours, we believe that gold could have a recovery, as technically we observe an oversold signal.

We believe that a technical bounce is likely to occur around the S_1 support located at 2,653 or around the bottom of the downtrend channel located at 2,550. Above this area, we will have an opportunity to buy.

Additionally, if gold consolidates above 2/8 of Murray located at 2,578, it will be seen as a positive signal and we can buy with targets at 2,619 and 2,621.

If gold continues its bearish cycle, the immediate support is located around 2,539 (1/8 Murray). The eagle indicator is reaching an extreme oversold zone. So, we believe that there could be a technical reboundin the next few days.
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Gold ends the week with the worst performance in three years

Gold ends the week with a drop, reaching the lowest level in the last three years. The market value of the precious metal has been declining throughout the week and has lost more than 4% of its value. Spot gold is currently trading at $2,561 per ounce.

Experts believe that the decline in the value of gold is due to a strong dollar and expectations of a stricter US monetary policy under Trump. Also, high interest rates make gold less attractive to investors.

Comments by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he stressed the need for caution in rapidly lowering rates, also affected market sentiment.

Perhaps the price of gold will rise in the future and reach the $ 2,600 mark again, but the coming week will show how the market will be affected by reports on retail sales in the United States and statements by representatives of the Fed.
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Oil is growing amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation

Oil prices started the week with an increase caused by the aggravation of the geopolitical situation over the weekend. At the same time, concerns about the demand for oil in China, the largest consumer, and forecasts of an abundance of it in the world are holding back price growth.

Brent futures rose 0.34% to $71.67 per barrel, while WTI contracts rose 0.31% to $67.50 per barrel.

The decision of President Biden's administration to allow Ukraine to use American weapons for strikes on Russian territory has become a serious turn in US policy. This event may lead to an increase in the so-called «geopolitical risk premium» in the oil market, as it increases tensions in the world.

A decrease in the capacity of refineries in China and a slowdown in production growth in the country are also causing concern among investors. In addition, uncertainty in global financial markets is related to the pace and scale of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. In the United States, the number of active oil drilling rigs decreased last week, reaching the lowest level since July.
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Tesla Buzz, Nasdaq Gains, Nvidia Intrigue — Wall Street Events

Nasdaq and S&P 500 Results: Nvidia on the Horizon, Tesla Surprises
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended Monday's trading in the "green zone," recouping some of their previous losses. Investors turned their attention to Nvidia's (NVDA.O) earnings call, while Tesla's (TSLA.O) shares rose sharply on expectations of favorable policy changes from the new Trump administration.

Nvidia: AI bets continue
Nvidia is set to report third-quarter financial results on Wednesday, with investors awaiting answers to a key question: whether strong demand for chips is continuing and whether the AI euphoria that has driven growth this year is sustaining the market.

The company, which has accounted for about 20% of the S&P 500's earnings over the past 12 months, is expected to post 25% EPS growth in the third quarter, according to analysts at BofA Global Research. However, Nvidia shares fell 1.3% after reports of new AI chips overheating in server systems.

Expert Comments: Moderate Optimism
"Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven to report quarterly results. While we are seeing revenue and interest pick up, the current level of expectations is not as high as it was a quarter or two ago," said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office.

Tesla: Jump on Expectations
Tesla shares have soared, reflecting positive market sentiment about possible policy changes associated with the new administration. Such growth underscores investors' desire to seize opportunities in a rapidly changing environment.

The sentiment around Nvidia and Tesla in the coming days may become an indicator of the future direction of the market, which promises many surprises for traders.

US indices: Nasdaq and S&P 500 in the green, Dow Jones declines
Trading on the US stock market on Monday ended with mixed dynamics of key indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 55.39 points (-0.13%) to end at 43,389.60. At the same time, the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 23.00 points (+0.39%) to end at 5,893.62, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 111.69 points (+0.60%) to end at 18,791.81.

Energy and Tesla: Who's Pulling the S&P 500 Up
The energy sector (.SPNY) led the S&P 500, rising 1.05%. Consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) followed suit, adding 1.04%. Tesla was in the spotlight, with shares jumping 5.6% after Bloomberg's report.

Donald Trump's transition team is reportedly considering loosening regulations on self-driving cars, fueling investor interest.

Meanwhile, industrials (.SPLRCI) were among the laggards, posting the biggest declines among sectors.

CVS Health Gains Strength
In notable corporate news, CVS Health (CVS.N) shares rose 5.4%. The jump was the result of the company announcing it would expand its board by adding four new members as part of a deal with Glenview Capital Management.

Experts Predict Volatility
Carol Schleiff, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office, said, "There could be significant volatility in some sectors right now until we hear more details about the decisions of the new Trump team, which is expected later this month."

Market Takes Stock of the Year
Despite a correction following the sharp post-election rally, sentiment on Wall Street remains positive.

The year 2024 is drawing to a close, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. stock market, although its future direction will depend on political decisions and new macroeconomic factors.

Stock Market: Holiday Season, Political Uncertainty, and Expectations from the Fed
U.S. stock indexes ended last week with the largest losses in the last two months. Investors are worried about the slowdown in the pace of easing by the Federal Reserve, as well as uncertainty around Donald Trump's appointments to his administration.

Retailers under close scrutiny
The start of the week coincided with an active holiday shopping season, which shifts the market's focus to the largest retail players. Walmart (WMT.N), Lowe's Companies (LOW.N) and Target (TGT.N) are preparing to release their results, which will become an indicator of the state of American consumer demand.

Balance of Power: More Winners on the NYSE
On the New York Stock Exchange, gainers outnumbered decliners 1.71 to 1, with 159 new yearly highs and 88 new yearly lows.

On the Nasdaq, the picture was balanced, with 2,158 gainers and 2,150 decliners. The S&P 500 posted 29 new yearly highs and 13 new yearly lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 69 new yearly highs and 265 new yearly lows.

Trading Activity Beats Averages
Trading volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 14.94 billion shares, exceeding the 20-day average of 14.12 billion. This activity indicates that traders are paying close attention to market events.

Global sentiment: Stocks rise, dollar falls
Global markets were positive on Monday, with stocks rising while the US dollar slipped, although it remains close to its yearly peaks. Investors moderated expectations about the Federal Reserve's next move, easing some of the pressure on the currency.

The holiday season is coming, and its outcome is expected to add clarity to the overall picture of the US economy.

Trump appointments and economic uncertainty: focus on key positions
US President-elect Donald Trump is busy building his team, filling important positions in the areas of health care and defense. However, key appointments for financial markets – the Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative – remain open, adding uncertainty to the outlook.

New policies: taxes and tariffs in focus
The incoming Trump administration is expected to focus on two priorities: tax cuts and higher tariffs. Economists say such measures could trigger higher inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.

Bond Yields: A Red Flag?
The U.S. Treasury yield market has seen yields fall amid heightened volatility. The benchmark 10-year note has lost 1 basis point to 4.416%.

"The 10-year yield reflects budget and deficit concerns, and signals underlying inflation risks if new tariffs are imposed," said Wasif Latif, president and chief investment officer at Sarmaya Partners.

Inflation: Back on the Table
The structure and scale of tariffs that the new administration may initiate have inflationary potential, according to Latif. "The bond market is sending a clear signal. The stock market may have paused last week, but today it seems to be riding a wave of optimism again," he said.

Markets: Balancing Expectations and Risks
Investors continue to balance optimism over economic stimulus measures with concerns that new tariffs and rising inflation could complicate the Fed's monetary policy. In the coming weeks, attention will focus on filling key positions and the details of the Trump administration's economic strategy.

European Markets Under Pressure: Real Estate and Utilities in the Red
European stock markets ended the day lower, led by weakness in the real estate and utilities sectors. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%, reflecting a cautious investor mood.

Global Markets: Gains on Nvidia Expectations
Sentiment was more positive in global markets, with the MSCI World Index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks stocks around the world, rising 0.35% to 845.60. Nvidia (NVDA.O) earnings on Wednesday remain in focus.

Analysts expect strong revenue growth from the company, which continues to dominate the AI chip space. Nvidia shares have nearly tripled this year, becoming a key driver of the S&P 500's record highs.

Dollar and Forex: Strengthening Against the Yen
The U.S. dollar rose 0.29% against the Japanese yen to 154.605. However, the dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, was down 0.51% at 106.19. Despite the decline, the currency remains close to its one-year high of 107.07, reflecting the overall strength of the U.S. economy.

Oil Market: Prices Rise Sharply
Oil prices have shown a significant strengthening after the news of production suspension at Norway's largest Johan Sverdrup field.

Brent crude futures closed at $73.30 per barrel, up 3.2%. Similarly, WTI crude also gained 3.2%, closing at $69.16 per barrel.

Looking Ahead: What to Expect from Markets
Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from Nvidia and other tech giants, which could set the tone for future market dynamics. The oil sector continues to react to geopolitical events, while currency traders will be watching for cues from the Federal Reserve.

Gold Returns: Prices Rise After a Week of Losses
Gold prices have rebounded after six straight days of declines. Spot gold rose 1.93% to $2,610.73 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $2,614.60. The weakening U.S. dollar was the main driver of the precious metal's gains.

Market Calm: A Pause in News Flow
"Markets should be more stable this week as the flow of macro and policy news from the U.S. slows," said Jim Reed, head of global economics and thematic research at Deutsche Bank. The agenda continues to focus on the appointment of key figures in the new Donald Trump administration.

S&P 500 Forecasts: Growth in Perspective
Goldman Sachs has updated its forecast for the S&P 500 (.SPX), expecting it to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025. This target implies growth of 10.3% from the current value of the index, which closed at 5,893.62.

Morgan Stanley has provided a similar forecast, suggesting that the S&P 500 will reach the same level by the end of next year. The bank bases its expectations on improving corporate earnings, easing of the Federal Reserve interest rate policy in 2024, and a strengthening business cycle.

Market Leaders: The Magnificent Seven Continue to Dominate
Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the key drivers of the index's growth are the companies of the so-called "Magnificent Seven." These are Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta (banned in Russia), Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. Experts are confident that these giants will outperform the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 in 2024.

Cautious Optimism
The stabilization of the gold market, optimism about the growth of the stock index and the easing of the Fed policy next year create the basis for favorable conditions. However, markets remain sensitive to any new macroeconomic and political events that could change the current trajectory.

The "Magnificent Seven" continue to lead, but by a narrow margin
The shares of tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven", retain their leadership, but their gap with the rest of the S&P 500 index will shrink to 7 percentage points, the smallest in the last seven years, Goldman Sachs concluded in a research note published on Monday.

Macro and Micro: Where are the risks hidden?
"While these companies' strong financial results support their outperformance, the impact of macroeconomic factors such as trade policy and economic growth rates strengthens the position of the other 493 companies in the S&P 500," Goldman analysts emphasized.

The company's forecasts include 11% growth in corporate earnings and a 2.5% increase in real US GDP by 2025.

Tariffs and Bonds: A Double Threat for the Market
Goldman Sachs also warned that the US stock market could face serious risks in 2025. Among them are the possible introduction of new tariffs and rising bond yields, which could put pressure on stocks.

On the other hand, a more accommodative fiscal policy or friendly measures from the Federal Reserve could stimulate further growth.

Economic Policy: Betting on Change
Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election brought clarity to the key directions of his economic program. Tax cuts and tariff hikes are the main promises that experts believe could accelerate inflation and limit the Fed's room to maneuver with interest rates.

Earnings Outlook: A Realistic View
Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings per share to rise to $268 by 2025. This figure reflects a positive but cautious view of corporate earnings prospects, given possible macroeconomic changes and political risks.

Results: Balancing Growth and Challenges
Investors are closely monitoring market dynamics, trying to find a balance between the opportunities presented by tech giants and the risks associated with changes in economic and trade policies. A difficult road lies ahead, in which it is important to consider both local and global factors.
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The main events by the morning: November 20

The United States will not change its nuclear policy, despite changes in Russian doctrine. According to Bloomberg, a Pentagon spokesman said that the United States has no data indicating that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine, according to Pentagon officials, did not come as a surprise to Washington.

Biden approved the supply of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine, which are prohibited by an international agreement. The United States made this decision to help Ukrainian troops deter the advance of Russian troops. The shipments include mines that are subject to the prohibitions of the Ottawa Convention, signed by 164 countries, including the United States and Russia.

Japan and China continue to actively sell American government bonds. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion of U.S. bonds in the three months ended September 30, and Chinese funds disposed of $51.3 billion worth of treasuries over the same period. Experts attribute these actions to the expectations of Donald Trump's return to power.

Vladimir Putin will visit India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Against this background, Bloomberg noted the failure of US efforts to isolate Russia on the world stage. At the same time, Washington cannot put pressure on India, as it considers it a key ally in the confrontation with China.

Trump may lift sanctions against Russia at the end of the conflict in Ukraine. A representative of the President-elect's transition team commented on the prospect of easing and lifting Washington's sanctions against Moscow, as well as normalizing trade and economic relations between the United States and Russia. He stated that this is «certainly an opportunity if the conflict in Ukraine turns out to be resolved.»
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Market at crossroads amid tensions: How investors are saving themselves in an era of uncertainty

Nasdaq slows down as investors ponder
The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended Wednesday in the red, breaking the day's upward move. The reason was the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as weak financial results from Target. Investors were anxiously awaiting the release of Nvidia's quarterly results, which, however, fell short of inflated expectations.

Dow in the green, S&P 500 is flat
The Dow Jones managed to finish the session higher, while the S&P 500 remained virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, morning trading began with a general decline - the news of Ukraine using British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory stirred up the markets. This happened immediately after the announcement of the launch of American ATACMS missiles, which prompted Russia to announce a reduction in the nuclear threshold.

"Fear scale" at a maximum since 2020
The Wall Street VIX volatility index, known as the "fear scale", rose to 18.79, which was a record since November 2020, and then fell to 17.24. Despite the pullback, anxiety in the markets remains high.

"After yesterday's strong rally in the tech sector, today the market switched to a more defensive mode," said James Regan, head of research at D.A. Davidson.

Nvidia: High Expectations Disappointed
The quarterly earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia was the highlight of the evening. The company's shares were down 0.76% during the session and fell further after the close. Despite a fourth-quarter revenue forecast that beat analysts' average estimates, investors were expecting more.

The market, which has seen a strong rally, is once again faced with a choice between risk and caution as global events add uncertainty.

Tech Under Pressure: Nasdaq Slightly Down
The information technology sector was under pressure, ending the session down 0.23%, which affected overall investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 0.11%, showing that confidence in the segment has weakened somewhat.

Target: Drops in Gift Season
Target shares plunged 21.4% after the company issued holiday sales and profit guidance that fell short of analysts' expectations. The company's weak third-quarter results added to investor disappointment.

Target's decline also weighed on the consumer discretionary index, which lost 0.57% on the day and was the worst performer in the sector.

Tesla and Amazon are down
Tesla shares fell 1.15% and Amazon lost 0.85%, indicating that investors are taking a cautious approach to growth assets. These companies, which had previously been leaders in their segments, are now facing more subdued expectations.

Indices: Mixed Results
Among the major indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to rise 139.53 points (+0.32%), closing at 43,408.47. The S&P 500 showed almost zero dynamics, adding a symbolic 0.13 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 21.32 points (-0.11%) to 18,966.14.

Nvidia: a leader or a source of risk?
Despite the decline in Nvidia shares during the last session, its annual dynamics remain impressive: since the beginning of the year, the shares have almost tripled their value. According to BofA Global Research, this has brought about 20% of the return of the entire S&P 500 index over the past 12 months.

Artificial intelligence: prospects and challenges
"Companies are starting to share successful cases of using AI, showing how investments in new technologies bring additional income or help reduce costs," analysts comment. However, investors are cautious, preferring to wait for confirmation of the sustainability of these trends.

The market is entering a new phase where high expectations collide with the reality of results, and geopolitical instability continues to shape sentiment.

MicroStrategy and MARA Holdings: Rapid Growth
MicroStrategy shares soared by 10%, while MARA Holdings showed an even more impressive growth of 13.9%. These companies linked to the cryptocurrency sector received support amid improving investor sentiment and growing interest in digital assets.

Central Bank: December Intrigue
Traders have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates at its December meeting. This opinion was formed amid the publication of strong economic data that shows the economy is stable despite persistent inflation.

NYSE and Nasdaq: The odds are stacked against the downside
On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), decliners outnumbered gainers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio, with 184 new highs and 94 new lows. On the Nasdaq, the story is similar: 2,245 stocks fell, compared to 2,007 gainers, for a ratio of 1.12-to-1.

The S&P 500 posted 30 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite posted 92 new highs and 163 new lows, underscoring the overall trend of uncertainty in the market.

Trading Activity: Volumes Decline
Total trading volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.2 billion shares, below the 20-day average of 14.32 billion. This indicates some caution among traders in the current market conditions.

Global Markets: Balancing Act
On the international stage, stocks showed a moderate decline, as traders continued to take into account the growing geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin set a new record, demonstrating investor confidence in cryptocurrencies. The dollar also strengthened after three days of decline, which became an additional signal of a change in sentiment in the currency markets.

The financial world once again demonstrates a complex interplay of factors, where global events, economic data and central bank actions are intertwined into a complex picture of uncertainty.

Market ends the session with variable dynamics
The S&P 500 index ended trading virtually unchanged, reflecting neutral investor sentiment. The Dow Jones turned out to be in the green, while the Nasdaq showed a decline, continuing the correction after the recent rally.

Among the leaders of growth, shares of companies from the healthcare, energy and materials sectors stood out. In contrast, consumer staples, financials and technology stocks were weak, becoming the session's main losers.

Global indices: moderate decline
The MSCI All-World Index, which measures the overall performance of global markets, fell 0.16% to 847.84. European stocks also ended the day lower, although the decline was minimal, down 0.02%.

Nvidia: pressure from high expectations
Investors were watching Nvidia shares closely, which came under some pressure after the release of quarterly results. Despite the decline, the situation was not catastrophic, said James St. Aubyn, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management.

"Nvidia remains a key player in the market, but expectations are rising each quarter and they are becoming increasingly difficult to meet. We are at that point where high expectations are starting to put pressure," St. Aubyn added.

Outlook: Market at a crossroads
The session showed that market participants remained cautious, balancing expectations for further growth with concerns related to geopolitics and corporate results. Global stocks reflected the general tension, with investors weighing local and global risk factors.

This week promises to be eventful, and the coming days may provide clearer signals about the direction of markets in the near future.

Gold and bonds: a safe haven for investors
Gold and government bond prices continued to rise on Tuesday, as markets reacted to the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Such news caused increased demand for safe assets.

Gold: triumph of the third session
Gold prices reached a weekly high, continuing to rise for the third trading session in a row. Spot gold increased by 0.69%, reaching $2,649.89 per ounce. U.S. gold futures showed a similar gain of 0.8%, reaching $2,651.70.

The rise in gold prices reflects investors' appetite for conservative strategies amid global instability.

Treasury Secretary Appointment: Intrigue in Focus
Also in focus is Donald Trump's choice for Treasury Secretary, which is expected to be announced as early as Wednesday.

"The market is recognizing that some of Trump's policies, such as tariffs and deportations, carry inflation risks," said Lukasz Tomicki, co-founder of LRT Capital in Austin, Texas. Bond yields have risen sharply since the election, confirming market participants' expectations.

Dollar: Recovering from Losses
The dollar index rose 0.54% to 106.68, snapping a three-day losing streak, although current levels remain below a one-year high.

The dollar also gained against key currencies, up 0.48% against the yen to 155.40 and 0.2% against the Swiss franc to 0.88410. The dollar index has gained nearly 3% since the November 5 election, underscoring confidence in the U.S. economy.

Global markets are on hold: geopolitical tensions, monetary policy and personnel decisions in the US continue to influence asset movements. The latest statements and actions by leaders can radically change the trajectory of investor sentiment.

Yuan under pressure: the market reacts to the central bank's decision
The Chinese yuan weakened against the dollar after the People's Bank of China decided to leave its base lending rates unchanged, as analysts had predicted. In the offshore market, the yuan lost 0.22%, falling to 7.251 per dollar. Such a decline reflects the general caution of investors in the context of stable monetary policy in China.

Bitcoin: a new ascent to records
The cryptocurrency surprised the markets again, reaching a new record level just below $95,000. During the last session, the price of bitcoin rose by 2.53%, reaching $94,579.01. Bitcoin has risen more than 30% since Donald Trump was elected. Market participants attribute this growth to expectations of more favorable regulation of the cryptocurrency sector under the new administration.

Trump and Bakkt: a signal for the cryptocurrency market
Bitcoin received an additional boost from a Financial Times report that Trump Media and Technology Group, which owns the social network Truth Social, is close to acquiring all shares of the Bakkt cryptocurrency trading platform. This news has increased speculation about Trump's possible influence on the development of digital assets.

Oil: prices continue to fall
Oil prices fell, reflecting excess crude and gasoline inventories in the United States, which turned out to be higher than expected.

Brent crude futures for January delivery fell 0.68%, closing at $72.81 per barrel. WTI contracts for December delivery ended the session down 0.75%, reaching $68.87 per barrel. The more active January WTI contract also showed a decline of 0.71%, closing at $68.75.

Markets balance between news
Market participants continue to closely monitor news from China, the crypto industry and the commodities sector. The influence of global economic policy and unexpected corporate events, such as a possible deal around Bakkt, create high volatility and intrigue, which creates unique opportunities for investors.
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Riding the Crest of a Wave: Nvidia Boosts Wall Street, Bitcoin Challenges $100K, Dollar High

Stock Markets Recover After Unsettled Trading
World stock indexes rose on Thursday despite mixed sentiment among investors. The main topic of trading was Nvidia's forecasts, which, while still positive, fell short of market expectations. At the same time, Bitcoin continued its confident movement, approaching the psychological mark of $100,000.

Nvidia: records and disappointment
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), a company whose technologies are shaping the future of artificial intelligence, started the session with an impressive takeoff, reaching a historical maximum. However, their dynamics later slowed down, and by the end of the day, growth was only 0.53%. Investors were concerned about the company's forecasts: the expected revenue growth was the most modest in the last seven quarters.

"Nvidia's results are still impressive, but the lack of brighter prospects for the fourth quarter may have cooled the market's enthusiasm a little," commented Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.

Wall Street: growth despite losses of giants
On American exchanges, the session ended on a positive note. Major indexes rose, led by gains in utilities, financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. However, communications services remained in the red, led by significant losses in Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which fell 6%.

Alphabet faces a new challenge as US authorities demand Google abandon its Chrome browser to eliminate its dominance in internet search. The lawsuit has left investors nervous and the tech giant's shares tumbling.

More challenges ahead for the market
Despite the upbeat close, investors continue to closely monitor corporate forecasts and the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin expectations and the future performance of the largest tech companies remain the main themes for the market.

Dow triumphs, Nasdaq moderately gains
US stock indexes ended the session with varying degrees of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.06% to 43,870.35, posting a solid gain. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.53% to 5,948.71. The Nasdaq Composite, however, was relatively flat, up a modest 0.03% to 18,972.42.

Europe: Tech, Energy Lead Gains
The MSCI Global Index, which tracks stocks around the world, also showed positive momentum, adding 0.38% to 851.05. However, the day was choppy as uncertainty swept the markets. European stocks, as represented by the STOXX (.STOXX), rose 0.41%, led by a rally in the tech and energy sectors.

"There's a bit of a news vacuum in the market right now, which makes it hard to pinpoint a clear direction," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.

Bitcoin Heads for $100,000
The cryptocurrency market continues to impress, with Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, steadily heading toward the $100,000 mark. It has gained 3.75% in the past 24 hours to reach $98,005. Bitcoin has gained more than 40% since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5. Investors attribute this momentum to expectations that the new administration will be favorable to cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum Gains Strength
It's not just Bitcoin that's showing strength: Ethereum is also showing remarkable results. The cryptocurrency has gained 8.77% to end the day at $3,350.80.

Treasury Secretary in Investors' Crosshairs
Markets are tensely awaiting the appointment of the Treasury Secretary in the new Trump administration. The choice will be key to implementing policies that include tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff initiatives.

Global markets are currently awaiting new guidance, with cryptocurrencies already betting on a looser economic policy. Investors continue to closely monitor Trump's actions and their impact on the global financial arena.

A strong labor market supports the dollar
The US dollar rose amid an unexpected decline in jobless claims, indicating a resilient labor market. An additional factor was the statements by Federal Reserve officials, who emphasized the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

However, currency movements were mixed. The dollar fell 0.62% against the Japanese yen, falling to 154.45, but strengthened against the Swiss franc by 0.29%, reaching 0.887.

Dollar Index on the Rise
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.37% to 107, its highest in 13 months. The euro, by contrast, weakened, losing 0.41% to $1.0479.

Russia and Ukraine Shake Up Oil Markets
Oil prices jumped sharply, gaining about 2%, after reports of a missile exchange between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns about the stability of crude supplies to the global market.

Brent crude futures rose 1.95% to $74.23 a barrel, while WTI futures added 2% to $70.10. Investors are worried that geopolitical tensions could continue to push prices higher.

Fourth straight session of growth
The gold market is showing positive dynamics, strengthening its position as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold rose by 0.8%, reaching $2,671.28 per ounce. US gold futures also went up, adding 0.9% and reaching $2,674.90.

Gold's growth is accompanied by increasing interest from investors who are looking for stability in the face of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Financial markets: new challenges and opportunities
The combination of economic factors such as a strong labor market and the Fed's comments with geopolitical risks creates a volatile but opportunity-rich environment for investors. Currency and commodity markets continue to react to the rapidly changing news background, making strategy selection key to success.

Why the US retains its leadership?
US stocks continue to strengthen their positions, significantly outperforming global peers. Investors associate this with hopes for the implementation of the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump. But the key to success will be the administration's ability to avoid escalating trade tensions and keep the budget deficit under control.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen an impressive 24% in 2024, outpacing the major benchmarks in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. The premium of the US index over the MSCI index of more than 40 countries has reached 22 times expected returns, according to LSEG Datastream. This is the largest gap in the last 20 years.

Tech and Economy on the US Side
Despite more than a decade of US stock dominance, the gap has widened this year, thanks to robust US economic growth and strong corporate earnings. The tech sector continues to be a driving force, with the excitement around artificial intelligence driving growth for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA.O).

A New Wave of Investing in Technology
Nvidia, a recognized leader in AI chips, continues to be a bellwether for tech companies. The success of Nvidia and other players in the industry shows that investors are betting on the future of tech, which will be defined by artificial intelligence.

"The US stock market is currently playing to its strengths: innovation, corporate profits, and economic resilience," analysts say.

How long will the US maintain its leadership?

While the current situation seems optimistic, the market is not immune to risks. Investors are closely monitoring the steps of the new administration, especially on tax policy, tariffs, and the budget. Any deviation from this course could be a turning point for the market.

Global Competition: Can the World Catch Up with the US?
While other regions, including Europe and emerging markets, are struggling with challenges such as slowing economic growth and geopolitical instability, the US continues to set the standard. However, the competition is not abating, and global markets may start to close the gap in the coming years.

US stocks remain at the top, but the question is how long this position will last. Investors should be prepared for changes and watch developments closely.

Taxes, deregulation and tariffs: a recipe for success?
Donald Trump's economic platform of tax cuts, deregulation and the use of tariffs as leverage has provoked mixed reactions. However, many experts believe that these measures can strengthen the US leadership on the global stage, despite possible side effects such as inflation and trade conflicts.

"Given the stimulative nature of the new administration's policies, US stocks will struggle to find worthy rivals at least until the end of 2025," says Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays.

Investors vote for the US
Following the November 5 election, inflows into US equity funds have reached record levels. In the week since the vote, investors have poured more than $80 billion into U.S. assets. By contrast, European and emerging markets have seen significant capital outflows, according to Deutsche Bank.

This shift in priorities reflects growing confidence in the U.S. market amid expectations for higher returns and stability.

U.S. companies continue to dominate
One of the main reasons for the resilience of the U.S. market is impressive corporate earnings growth. LSEG Datastream forecasts S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025.

By comparison, Europe's Stoxx 600 index is expected to grow more modestly: 1.8% this year and 8.1% next year. The gap underscores the U.S. lead in corporate profitability.

"America remains the region that has the highest earnings growth and maintains strong profitability," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

What's next for the market?
Experts note that even if global markets begin to catch up with the US, the US market will remain a key point of attraction for investors due to its sustainable growth and pro-business policies.

However, the question remains: will the Trump administration be able to balance ambitious reforms without causing side effects that could undermine this success? Investors will continue to watch every step, assessing how the implementation of the economic program will affect the dynamics of global markets.

$14 trillion versus Europe: the imbalance is growing
The largest US tech companies play a key role in the country's economic leadership. The five giants - Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet - are valued at a whopping $14 trillion. By comparison, the market capitalization of all 600 companies in the European STOXX 600 index is about $11 trillion, according to LSEG data.

It is the strong performance of these corporations that accounts for much of the growth of the S&P 500 index, making it a favorite for investors.

GDP growth outpaces global indicators
Forecasts for the coming years show that the United States will continue to outpace other countries in terms of economic growth. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, US GDP will increase by 2.8% in 2024 and by 2.2% in 2025. In comparison, the economies of the eurozone countries expect modest growth: 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year.

This advantage is supported by strong support for the technology sector, which continues to be the engine of development.

Import duties as a pressure tool
One of Donald Trump's key initiatives is to increase import tariffs. Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, believes that such measures, even with certain costs, will strengthen the position of the United States.

"If tariffs in the range of 10-20% are imposed on goods from Europe, they will suffer much more than we will," Mullaney noted.

Trump is betting on protecting the American market, which could become an additional lever for strengthening the economy.

Republican control strengthens its position
The consolidation of Republican power in Washington opens up more opportunities for Trump to implement his agenda. This has already affected economists' forecasts. Deutsche Bank has improved its expectations for US GDP growth in 2025, increasing its forecast from 2.2% to 2.5%.

The political support of the Trump administration, technological leadership, and ambitious plans for economic reform make the United States a central player on the world stage. The only question is how long it will be able to maintain this advantage.

Limited capabilities of Congress
While tax cuts and deregulation remain the main drivers of Donald Trump's economic program, a narrow majority in Congress could limit the implementation of the most radical initiatives. Among them are tariffs, which have already caused active debate. As analysts note, the administration will take into account the reaction of the markets to avoid undue pressure.

S&P 500 Forecasts: From 5100 to 6600
Experts at UBS Global Wealth Management predict that the S&P 500 index could reach 6600 next year. Such growth is due to several factors: progress in artificial intelligence, lower interest rates, tax reforms, and deregulation.

However, a scenario of a full-scale trade war with China and other partners could have negative consequences. If countries begin to take retaliatory measures against American tariffs, the index could fall to 5100 points. UBS emphasizes that in this case, global markets will also suffer.

Government contracts and pharmaceuticals under pressure
Not all industries are enthusiastic about Trump's reforms. Concerns about reducing bureaucracy have already hit shares of government contractors. Drugmakers have also found themselves in a difficult situation after the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic, to the post of head of the Department of Health and Human Services.

Such decisions create uncertainty for individual sectors of the economy, increasing volatility in the stock market.

Budget deficit and bonds under pressure
A radical tax cut carries the risk of increasing the national debt. It is these fears that triggered the recent sell-off in US bonds, which led to an increase in the yield on 10-year notes.

Financial experts warn that a possible increase in the deficit could put pressure on the market, creating problems for long-term investments.

On the brink of change: what to expect from Trump's policies?
The reforms promised by the administration create both opportunities and risks. The forecasts for the US economy remain strong, but their implementation will depend on the ability to find a balance between ambitious initiatives and the reaction of the markets.

Investors, in turn, are closely monitoring every step in order to adapt their strategies in time in a rapidly changing economic environment.
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EUR/USD: parity in the risk zone

Donald Trump's return to the political arena is alarming for investors, since his economic views, as during the previous presidency, are clearly nationalistic in nature.

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply, reaching a two-year low, due to fears that the trade wars that Trump will inevitably resume will lead to an economic crisis in the eurozone. Economic indicators confirmed the deterioration of the situation: the composite PMI fell below the 50 mark, signaling a reduction in economic activity.

In this regard, markets expect a more aggressive monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which may lead to a fall in the euro to parity with the dollar. Such a scenario was already implemented in 2022 during the outbreak of the military conflict in Ukraine, when the euro weakened amid the energy crisis.

Previously, a similar situation was observed in 2016, when the dollar rose sharply after Trump's election victory, and then weakened by 2017. Such dynamics may be repeated, especially if the minutes of the October Fed meeting turn out to be «dovish» and inflation in Europe decreases.

At the moment, the dollar is holding at 107, and the euro is 104.
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China resists Trump's pressure by strengthening the yuan

The Chinese authorities are facing new tariff threats from US President-elect Donald Trump and are strengthening control over the yuan exchange rate.

Immediately after the end of the US elections, the People's Bank of China began to set the daily reference rate of the yuan above 7.2 per dollar, despite dollar fluctuations and analysts' expectations that the central bank would weaken the currency.

Such actions by the central bank are reminiscent of the tensions that characterized Trump's first term, but now the stakes are even higher. China is balancing between the desire to protect its currency and the need to stimulate economic growth. This forces the central bank to seek a balance between too strong and too weak yuan exchange rate.

Experts believe that the People's Bank of China will keep the yuan relatively stable against the dollar, as it was before. In response to the imposition of additional tariffs, China will rely more on domestic incentives rather than currency devaluation.
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The main events by the morning: November 27

The Russian ruble continues to weaken, despite the support from tax payments and stable oil quotes. On the Moscow Exchange, the yuan has exceeded the mark of 14.5 rubles, and the dollar is approaching the level of 106 rubles. The decline in the Russian currency is due to several factors: the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, new sanctions complicating foreign trade calculations, increased demand for imports and rising budget expenditures, as well as the strengthening of the dollar on world markets.

Biden secretly requested an additional $24 billion from Congress to help Ukraine. Of this amount, $16 billion is supposed to be spent on replenishing American weapons stocks, and the remaining funds will be sent directly to Ukraine. Republicans opposed it, accusing Biden of trying to disrupt Donald Trump's possible peace initiatives to resolve the conflict.

Walmart has abandoned the policy of inclusivity, the company's shares are growing. Walmart announced the termination of its support for diversity and inclusivity policies, including severing ties with the Center for Racial Equality and withdrawing from the LGBT rights index (the organization is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation). Against the background of this decision, the company's shares have been showing growth over the past two days.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah has entered into force. Israel and Hezbollah have officially stopped fighting in accordance with the new peace agreement. The agreement provides for the gradual control of the Lebanese army over the border territories with the support of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon. Israel, in turn, has pledged to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within two months.

The Trump team is evaluating the possibility of direct talks with Kim Jong Un as part of a «new diplomatic push.» Trump's main goal is to restore communication channels between Washington and Pyongyang, but further political contacts and their schedule have not yet been established. It is also noted that these efforts can reduce the risk of armed conflict.
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Inflation and weak tech forecasts: Why Wall Street markets closed lowe

Wall Street investors react with losses: Nasdaq in the red amid inflation fears
Yesterday's trading on Wall Street ended with losses for all major indices, with the Nasdaq among the leaders of decline. The tech sector suffered significant losses ahead of Thanksgiving as traders grew concerned that the Federal Reserve might back off from aggressive rate cuts amid lingering inflation concerns.

Strong Data, Weak Progress
The U.S. economy posted solid growth figures, with consumer spending data showing a strong increase in October. However, despite the positive results, efforts to reduce inflation appear to be running into trouble, adding to traders' concerns that the Federal Reserve could take a more cautious stance on interest rates.

Markets Expect Fed to Be More Tight
Traders on CME's FedWatch platform have increased their bets by 25 basis points, according to the latest calculations, in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its December meeting. However, rates are expected to remain unchanged in January and March.

New Trade Threats and Their Impact on the Market
Investors are also concerned about the new possible economic consequences of President-elect Donald Trump's statements, who proposed introducing new tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China. These measures will remain in place until countries take the necessary steps to combat illegal migration and drug trafficking. In particular, Trump announced 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10% on Chinese goods if countries do not take action against fentanyl and illegal migrants.

Risks to Inflation: Experts' Opinions
Economists at Goldman Sachs expressed concern about the possible long-term consequences of this approach. In their recent report, they warned that further escalation of tariff policy could delay inflation's return to the 2% target. These risks put additional pressure on markets, increasing uncertainty in the economic situation.

Unresolved Issues and Uncertainty in Markets
So, amid strong economic data, trade threats and uncertainty over Fed policy, investors continue to search for clear guidance, which in turn continues to influence the behavior of markets.

Wall Street ends the day lower: Tech sector under pressure
On Wall Street, indices closed lower on Wednesday, weighed down by strong economic data and concerns about the future policy of the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 138.25 points, or 0.31%, to close at 44,722.06. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 22.89 points, or 0.38%, to close at 5,998.74. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was the biggest loser, falling 115.10 points, or 0.60%, to 19,060.48.

Global markets also under pressure

It wasn't just U.S. stock indexes that suffered a decline. The MSCI index, which tracks global markets (.MIWD00000PUS), lost 0.10%, falling 0.84 points to 858.24. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) ended the day down 0.19%, also confirming the trend of global market sentiment weakening.

Tech sector on the brink of collapse
Stocks of major players in the tech sector attracted particular attention in the markets. For example, Dell (DELL.N) shares fell 12% after the company published disappointing forecasts for quarterly results. HP (HPQ.N) shares also fell 6%, weighing on the overall sentiment in the information technology sector. The sector's index (.SPLRCT) fell 1.2%, highlighting the weakness of the leading tech giants.

Megacaps fall: Nvidia and Microsoft in the red
The biggest tech companies were not spared the negative trends either. Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares showed significant declines, which exacerbated the overall decline in the sector. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index (.SOX) lost 1.8%, showing a weak performance for one of the most profitable industries.

Growing interest in small caps, but muted growth in Russell 2000
At the same time, the Russell 2000 index (.RUT), which tracks small company stocks, was a bit on the sidelines of the general decline. After a record high earlier in the week, the index rose by 0.1%, which was the only positive moment among the major stock indices on the trading day.

Results of the day: markets await further signals
So, the latest trading on Wall Street demonstrated restraint among investors. Amid uncertainty related to possible decisions of the Federal Reserve and the state of the global economy, market participants tend to be cautious. Amid weak forecasts for the largest tech companies and uncertainty around tariff policy, the influence of these factors continues to affect investor sentiment.

Investors react to economic data: high growth rates and caution from the Fed
Markets continued to demonstrate restrained sentiment despite positive economic data. Investors were closely watching reports that showed the U.S. economy continued to grow at a solid pace in the third quarter. Notably, new jobless claims fell again last week, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates in December.

Inflation in Focus: Fed Faces Choice
However, despite the strong macroeconomic data, inflation remains under pressure. Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity, noted that inflation was slightly above the Fed's desired levels, casting doubt on the possibility of further rate cuts. In his view, this could force the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance.

Trump Tariff Policy: A New Challenge for the Economy

Investors are also concerned about the possible impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policy. Welch stressed that if the proposed tariffs are implemented, they could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which in turn would complicate the task for the Fed, which must balance economic data with the policy initiatives of the new administration.

Uncertainty at the Fed meeting: Will rates be cut?

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting, released on Tuesday, showed that Fed members remain divided on the issue of future rate cuts. Despite the positive data, they are still unsure how much current rates are constraining economic growth and what approach to take in response to inflation threats and external risks.

S&P 500 on the verge of historic gains, but not without difficulties
Despite these difficulties, the S&P 500 continues to gain strength, heading for its biggest monthly gain in all of 2024. The reading also marked the sixth straight month of gains in seven months, underscoring positive expectations about the impact of President Trump's economic policies on local businesses and the broader economy.

Investor Disappointment: Workday Shares Slip
Not all sectors of the market are seeing positive results, however. Workday (WDAY.O) shares fell 6.2% after the company reported weaker-than-expected subscription revenue guidance. Weak customer spending on its human capital management software weighed on the stock and the broader tech sector.

Takeaway: Uncertainty and Balancing Act
Overall, the market remains in a state of uncertainty, given both economic factors and political risks related to U.S. foreign trade policy. The Federal Reserve, in turn, will be forced to find a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation, which will be an important factor in determining the future direction of the stock market in the coming months.

US Stock Market: Stock Performance and Holiday Expectations
The New York Stock Exchange saw a predominance of positive sentiment among stocks on Wednesday. The number of advancing stocks significantly outnumbered the decliners, with a ratio of 1.64 to 1. At the same time, the number of new highs on the NYSE reached 406, while there were only 54 new lows. This indicates that most stocks on the exchange continued to move higher.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq: New Highs Amid Market Activity
The S&P 500, in turn, noted 79 new 52-week highs, while not recording a single new low. This confirms the resilience of the index's main stocks. The Nasdaq Composite demonstrated even more noticeable growth, recording 136 new highs and 71 new lows, which also reflects positive sentiment in the tech sector.
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The main events by the morning: November 29

Steelmaking is declining in Russia. According to data for January-October 2024, steel production decreased by 7% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 59.1 million tons. The largest drop was shown by Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK) – by 12% and Severstal – by 8%.

China will restrict exports of tungsten, an important metal used in weapons and semiconductors starting December 1. The new rules require export licenses, which is associated with increased control over dual-use goods. These measures are being taken against the background of strained relations with the United States, which will ban its contractors from purchasing tungsten from China from 2027.

The head of the Russian Defense Ministry arrived in North Korea today. During the visit, a number of meetings with representatives of the military and military-political leadership of the DPRK are planned to discuss bilateral cooperation.

The Japanese Prime Minister announced his desire to conclude a peace treaty with Russia. After the outbreak of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, Japan imposed sanctions against Russia, which is why Moscow refused to negotiate the status of the Kuril Islands and conclude peace. In his speech, the Prime Minister did not mention the decision to maintain these sanctions until the end of hostilities.

The Brazilian real has updated its historical low on concerns about state finances. Paired with the US dollar, the rial fell to 5.9998 per dollar. Investors are evaluating the long-awaited measures of the administration of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to ensure budget balance: spending cuts of 70 billion reais ($12 billion), personal income tax exemption for people with the lowest wages and an increase in this tax for high-income people.
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Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on 02.12.2024

Despite the acceleration of annual inflation in the Eurozone from 2.0% to 2.3%, the euro failed to rise and even weakened. Although the scale of the decline was limited, it still seems illogical. The issue is that most market participants focus on the data highlighted by the media, which tends to emphasize monthly figures rather than annual ones. As it turns out, while annual inflation increased, consumer prices in monthly terms decreased by 0.3%.

From the perspective of macroeconomic analysis, annual data holds more significance, as it is less prone to distortions caused by seasonal fluctuations. On the other hand, due to these seasonal factors, monthly data can appear quite odd, making conclusions based on them fundamentally flawed. It's worth noting that all reports and meeting minutes from key central banks refer specifically to annual inflation, not monthly changes. Thus, the European Central Bank's decisions will be based on accelerating annual inflation to 2.3%, not the 0.3% monthly price decline. However, the media currently gives the impression that the ECB might continue to lower interest rates.

This perception is likely to strengthen further, supported by labor market data. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to rise from 6.3% to 6.4%. Therefore, the euro may experience a slight further decline.
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The main events by the morning: December 3

Russia will receive $1.2 billion from the BRICS bank for the first time in two years. The new BRICS Development Bank is investing $1.2 billion in four projects in Russia, according to the Finance Ministry. The funding will be directed to the preservation of cultural heritage, the development of tourism, the modernization of the judicial system and housing and communal services. Due to sanctions, funds can flow through complex financial schemes.

Trump's «peace plan» for Ukraine, the «Kellogg Plan», has leaked to the network. The media published the alleged details of the «Kellogg Plan» based on OSW Report 2024 data. The main points include lifting isolation from Russia, peace talks, economic incentives for Moscow, support for Ukraine and pressure on Kiev. There are no official confirmations yet.

Chinese banks are ceasing operations with sub-sanctioned Russian banks. Chinese financial institutions have begun to restrict interaction with Russian banks that have recently been sanctioned by the United States. The Bank of China has already imposed restrictions, and the Bank of Kunlun warns of the impending termination of payments by sub-sanctioned banks.

The construction of the last section of the Russia–China gas pipeline has been completed. China has commissioned the last section of the gas pipeline connecting Russia and China. The Nantong–Luzhi section in Jiangsu Province has become the final part of the project, which is now fully operational, according to a statement from the Chinese Pipeline Management Corporation.

The United States may lift sanctions against Bashar al-Assad to weaken Syria's ties with Iran and Russia. According to Reuters, Washington is considering lifting sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The main goal is to reduce Tehran's influence and block the supply of weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah.
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Forecast for GBP/USD on December 4, 2024

The movement of the pound sterling within the range of 1.2612–1.2708 since November 14 appears to be consolidation, with false breakouts on both sides on November 22 and 29. Following this logic, the price may now attempt a genuine breakout below the lower boundary of the range, targeting a retest of the 1.2510 support.

However, this plan faces resistance from the Marlin oscillator, which has turned upward from the neutral zero line on the daily chart. If this is not the start of a sustained upward movement, it is at least a sign of consolidation. As a result, the price may remain within the range for another 1–2 days until the release of U.S. employment data on Friday.

Today, the UK will release November PMI indexes. Business activity in the services sector is expected to decline from 52.0 to 50.0, while the composite PMI may weaken from 51.8 to 49.9. This could increase the likelihood of the price dropping below the range.

On the H4 chart, the price is struggling with the balance line support. The Marlin oscillator has twice turned downward from the zero line, increasing the likelihood of the price successfully breaking through the support.

Below the 1.2612 level, the price will encounter the MACD line at 1.2582. For a successful break of this level, the price might first consolidate below 1.2612.
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Forecast for USD/JPY on December 5, 2024

Bank of Japan representatives are increasingly expressing concerns about a rate hike ahead of their December 19 meeting (Nakamura), traditionally citing a "broader range of data."

Given the Bank of Japan's caution about sudden market changes and its intention to provide prior notice to investors regarding its actions, the rate may remain unchanged at this meeting. If the price consolidates above the 150.83 level, further growth to 153.60 becomes likely, with the pair potentially reaching this level before the Federal Reserve meeting on December 18.

On the 4-hour chart, growth has only begun following a double divergence with the Marlin oscillator when the price approached the target range of 148.18/50. The initial impulse has been achieved, but the price needs to consolidate above the MACD line at the 151.24 mark, corresponding to yesterday's high.
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The Fed remains cautious despite expectations of a rate cut

The head of the Federal Reserve System, Jerome Powell, in his recent comments stressed that the strong US economy gives the central bank the opportunity to be cautious about changes in interest rates. According to Powell, the economy is in good condition, and there is no reason to expect changes in this direction.

At the same time, despite the reduction in interest rates by the Fed, the cost of borrowing for citizens has not changed significantly. This is because rates on most loans, such as mortgages and credit cards, depend on the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds, which have recently reached high levels despite efforts to reduce inflation.

Powell noted that the current economic situation leaves many uncertainties, including in light of possible changes in the trade policy of the new administration of President Donald Trump. He also expressed hope for constructive relations with the new Government.

The issue of the Fed's independence also remains relevant. Some of Trump's economic advisers have suggested giving the president more influence over the regulator's decisions, although many experts emphasize the importance of the central bank's independence for the stability of the economy and the US dollar.
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EUR/USD Weekly Preview: CPI, PPI, ECB

In two weeks, the currency market will de facto go on a Christmas/New Year vacation, which will not end until early January. But before leaving, traders will "slam the door loudly," reacting to the key events of December.

The upcoming week is packed with significant events for the EUR/USD pair. Key November inflation data will be released in the US, and the European Central Bank will hold its final meeting of the year in Frankfurt.

Monday-Tuesday
On Monday, traders will focus on China's November inflation report. With an otherwise empty economic calendar, this release could significantly influence USD pairs, but only if the results deviate from forecasts.

In October, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.3% (forecast: 0.4%). The indicator shows a downward trend for the second month, reflecting weakening consumer demand. November's CPI is expected to rebound to 0.4%. If inflation unexpectedly slows further, the USD might gain indirect support due to heightened risk-off sentiment.

Wholesale inventory data will be published later during the US session, though it's a secondary macroeconomic indicator unlikely to significantly impact EUR/USD.

On Tuesday, the US will release the labor cost index, measuring the annual change in employer expenses per employee (this considers not only salary deductions but also taxes and payments to other funds). This lagging indicator could influence the USD only if it diverges significantly from expectations. The index is forecasted to decrease to 1.3% in Q3, following drops to 1.9% in Q2 and 2.4% in Q1.

Wednesday
Wednesday brings the week's most crucial macroeconomic report: the November US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Given recent Federal Reserve statements, this report could determine the outcome of the Fed's January meeting and possibly the December one.

For instance, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has indicated support for pausing the easing cycle if the data contradict forecasts of slowing inflation—that is, if the CPI and PPI accelerate again. At the same time, Waller spoke about the pause not hypothetically but in the context of the December meeting.

Similarly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that rate hikes might resume if inflation accelerates. For the most part, the rest of the members of the U.S. central bank called for a slowdown in the pace of policy easing but did not rule out "other scenarios." Among them is Jerome Powell, who has also recently toughened his rhetoric.

In other words, the CPI is significant in current circumstances.

According to forecasts, Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.7% YoY (up from 2.6% in October). If realized, it could signal a reversal in the six-month downward trend seen through September. In October, the Headline CPI unexpectedly increased, and if it comes out at least at the forecast level (not to mention the "green zone") in November, then we can already talk about a certain trend, which will not please the Fed representatives.

The Core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY. The indicator was at the same level in October and September. The stagnation of the core CPI adds to Fed concerns amid rising overall inflation.

Thursday
Thursday is another critical day for EUR/USD, with the ECB's final meeting of the year taking center stage during the European session. The base-case scenario suggests a 25-basis-point rate cut. Additionally, the ECB will release its quarterly projections on rates and macroeconomic indicators. After the latest data on the growth of the European economy and inflation in the eurozone, the 50-point scenario is not even hypothetically considered. Therefore, reducing the rate by 25 points will not substantially impact the euro and, consequently, on EUR/USD. Traders are interested in further prospects for easing the monetary policy. Therefore, the market's main attention will be focused on the main points of the accompanying statement and the rhetoric of Christine Lagarde.

Recent Eurozone data shows that Q3 GDP growth reached 0.4% QoQ (forecast: 0.2%), the strongest growth rate since the beginning of the year before last. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.9% (forecast: 0.8%), the strongest growth rate since the first quarter of 2023.

As for inflation, Headline CPI rose to 2.0% (forecast: 1.9%), and the core remained at the previous month's level, 2.7%, with a forecast of a decrease of 2.6%. Inflation of service prices (one of the report's most important components, which is closely monitored by the ECB) remained at a high level—3.9%.

These figures suggest that the ECB will continue easing monetary policy moderately. During the post-meeting statement, Lagarde is expected to emphasize a data-dependent approach.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. The Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released in the US session, another vital inflation indicator alongside CPI. Forecasts suggest that the headline PPI is expected to accelerate to 2.5% YoY, while the core PPI is expected to rise to 3.2% YoY. A stronger PPI print could support the USD, especially if CPI also meets or exceeds forecasts (not to mention the "green zone").

Friday
Eurozone industrial production data will be published on Friday. In monthly terms, the indicator should show positive dynamics, but it will remain in the negative area (-0.1% in October against -2.0% in September). In annual terms, the indicator should fall to -3.0% after falling to -2.8%.

The Import Prices Index will be released in the US session. Though secondary, it provides additional context for inflation trends. Forecasts indicate a rise to 1.0% YoY in November (up from 0.8% in October and -0.1% in September).

Conclusions
The spotlight will be on US inflation reports (CPI and PPI) and the ECB meeting. Accelerating US inflation would boost USD demand since, in this case, traders will "remember everything": Mary Daly's hawkish statements, strong Nonfarms, and pro-inflationary policies under the incoming Trump administration.

Meanwhile, the ECB's dovish tone amid rising Eurozone inflation could weigh on the euro.

Short positions on EUR/USD become relevant if the pair breaks below the 1.0530 support level (the middle Bollinger Band and Tenkan-sen line on D1). The first target is 1.0470 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the lower border of the Kumo cloud on H4), and the second target is 1.0420 (the lower line of Bollinger Bands on D1).
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The main events by the morning: December 17

The European Union has imposed the 15th package of sanctions against Russia. The construction giant PIK and the airline UTair, as well as the head of Avtodor Vyacheslav Petushenko, were subject to restrictions. The sanctions affected 52 tankers carrying Russian oil, top managers of fuel and energy sector companies and heads of Gazprom subsidiaries: Gazprom Fleet, Gazstroyprom and Gazprom LNG Technologies.

The Moscow Stock Exchange index fell to a one-year low, reaching 2,395 points. The market is reacting negatively to the speeches of the president and the Minister of Defense, new sanctions and the expectation of a decision on the key rate. Rostelecom's shares have fallen to the lowest value since 2022 – 50 rubles. The collapse of MTS Bank continues, whose securities have lost 60% since the IPO. The largest drop was demonstrated by «Samolet» – since the beginning of the year, the company's shares have depreciated by 79%, falling from 3,851 to 845 rubles per paper.

Donald Trump has announced plans to impose or increase tariffs against a number of countries. At a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago estate, the president-elect stressed that the United States will be guided by the principle of reciprocity: if a trading partner imposes duties on American goods, the United States will impose similar measures in response. The list of countries potentially subject to new duties may include Brazil, India and China.

US Senator Bernie Sanders criticized the US defense budget, which reached almost $900 billion. According to him, inflated defense spending limits funding for health and social care programs. Sanders also spoke about large-scale fraudulent schemes at the Pentagon, where defense companies overestimate the value of contracts by 40%.

South Korea has imposed sanctions against 7 individuals and 13 organizations from Russia. The reason was the accusation of illegal military cooperation with the DPRK. In total, 11 people and 15 organizations were included in the list, including two generals of the Korean People's Army, a rocket engineer and one officer.
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The main events by the morning: December 18

Gazprom's shares have collapsed to their lowest level since 2009. Gazprom's securities continued to fall for the fourth day in a row, reaching 107 rubles per share. This is a record low for the last 14 years. The main reason was the EU's rejection of interest in the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine and the transition to alternative energy sources, which caused a negative reaction from European gas companies.

Elon Musk is under the gun of the US authorities. SpaceX and its founder Elon Musk have been under scrutiny by the American authorities. According to The New York Times, Musk is suspected of possible violations related to the secrecy of state secrets.

Silver will be the main asset of 2025. Experts at Heraeus Precious Metals predict an increase in the value of silver on the global market in the range of $28 to $40 per troy ounce in 2025. Silver is expected to rise in price faster than gold, which makes it a promising investment asset.

The cost of bitcoin has updated another historical high, exceeding $ 108 thousand. Crypto investors continue to buy, expecting that the newly elected US President Donald Trump will create more favorable conditions for the crypto industry and include bitcoin in the US strategic reserve.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ignores the investigation. He did not appear for questioning at the Office of Anti-Corruption Investigations in the case of the rebellion. Yeltsin's powers were suspended as a result of impeachment in parliament.
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EUR/USD: Powell arranges sell-off. EUR plunges to 2-year low. Parity on horizon?

The EUR/USD pair plunged to 1.0351 with a single-session fall of 1.32%. The instrument recorded its lowest close in two years. This slump was triggered by unexpectedly hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, which made it clear that no rate cuts are anticipated in January.

According to the updated FOMC forecasts, only two rate cuts are expected in 2025, significantly fewer than previous estimates. This adjustment in expectations led investors to reassess their positions. As a result, this entailed a sharp drop in stock indices, a rise in US Treasury yields, and, consequently, a strengthening of the dollar.

Despite being just six days before Christmas, markets faced another unpleasant surprise. Under the influence of the Fed's hawkish statement, the S&P 500 index tumbled by 2.95%, marking its steepest post-meeting decline since 2001.

The reaction also extended to the debt market. Higher yields on US Treasuries compared to other countries provide investors with an additional incentive to invest in the US. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bills jumped by 11.5 basis points, surpassing 4.5% for the first time since May. In comparison, the yield on 10-year German bonds is only about 2.29%.

According to strategists, the Fed's intention to moderate the pace of rate cuts is bearish for the US dollar due to the widening short-term interest rate differentials with the eurozone.

Analysts are closely monitoring changes in the FOMC's dot plots, which reflect individual committee members' expectations for future interest rates. The latest snapshot indicates a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points in 2025 (two steps of 25 bps each), twice lower than the 100 bps forecasted in September and below the 75 bps expected by market consensus before the update was released.

The revised forecasts reinforced the outlook for a higher funds rate, with the long-term median dot now projected at 3.0%. This suggests that the current rate-cutting cycle will end at a higher level than previously anticipated.

At the same time, economic forecasts were revised upwards: the annual inflation rate for 2025 is now expected at 2.5%, up from the earlier estimated 2.1% increase. Most FOMC members believe core inflation will continue to decline in 2025.

Jerome Powell noted that the latest rate cut was a difficult decision and confirmed the Fed's intention to slow the pace of monetary policy easing. He emphasized that before any further rate cuts, the central bank expects clearer progress in reducing inflationary pressures and will not tolerate inflation persistently above the 2% target.

As a result, markets are revising their expectations, preparing for a prolonged pause in the Fed's easing cycle. This scenario could keep the US dollar elevated through 2025, further pressuring the euro. Could parity be on the horizon?

Temporary rebound in EUR/USD

During Thursday's European session, the EUR/USD pair managed to climb back above the 1.0400 level, as the bullish momentum of the US dollar slightly weakened following Wednesday's sharp rally.

However, fundamental signals still do not provide a basis for a shift in the overall negative trend. Both short-term and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs) reveal the bearish trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke below the lower border of the bearish range at 20.00 to 40.00, signaling the formation of a new downtrend.

From a technical viewpoint, the key support level for the EUR/USD pair could be 1.0200, provided it breaks below the two-year low at 1.0330.

In the case of an upward correction, the nearest significant obstacle for bulls would be around the 1.0500 zone, where the 20-day EMA is recognized.
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The main events by the morning: December 20

There is a new crisis in the United States: the government is on the verge of a shutdown due to the failure of the funding bill. Republicans proposed a document that was supported by only 174 members of the House of Representatives, while 235 opposed it. If the bill had been approved, the federal government would have received funds to work until March 2025, and the debt ceiling would have been suspended until January 2027.

The International Monetary Fund believes that the Russian economy is growing due to the rapid growth of wages. The Director of Communications of the foundation noted that the growth of the Russian economy is due to strong private consumption, supported by a tough labor market and rapid wage growth. Corporate investments also play an important role.

Sanctions against Russia have led to an increase in business tourism. Already, almost 20% of business trips are to foreign destinations, the leaders among which are China and the UAE. Next year, the number of business trips may increase by another 15-20%. This is due to the desire of businesses to explore new areas for doing business within the Russian Federation or in friendly countries.

Donald Trump has threatened the EU countries that they must fill the trade deficit with the United States through purchases of oil and gas. Otherwise, the United States will impose widespread tariffs.

Bitcoin fell below $95,000 after the decision of the US Federal Reserve System to put the key rate cut on pause. The Fed also raised its inflation forecast for next year. Experts believe that the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, may become a new villain for the crypto industry, replacing the head of the SEC, Gensler.

Thailand is considering the possibility of legalizing bitcoin as a means of payment. The country's finance minister proposed starting an experiment in tourist regions such as Phuket and Hua Hin, where it would be possible to allow the use of cryptocurrency in restaurants, cafes and shops. This will simplify the lives of tourists who will be able to pay with digital assets without having to look for currency exchange offices.
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Inflation falls to 2.4%: Markets respond with gains, but week remains a loss

US stocks rally after weak trading
After two straight losing sessions, US stocks ended the week on a positive note, as encouraging inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials eased investor concerns about future interest rate moves.

Inflation is slowing: Key data
The published Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index, one of the main indicators of inflation, showed an increase of 2.4% year-on-year in November. This figure was slightly lower than economists' forecast of 2.5%. This result strengthened hopes that inflationary pressures continue to subside despite the resilience of the economy.

Consumers continue to spend
Consumer spending data showed an increase in November, which was further evidence of the resilience of the US economy. This fact, despite subdued inflation, supports confidence that demand remains stable.

Rate expectations are shifting
The publication of fresh data led to a change in market sentiment. Now traders are forecasting the first cut in the Fed's key rate in March 2025, and the second in October of the same year. Previously, the probability of a second cut before the end of 2025 was estimated at only 50%.

At the same time, on Wednesday, the Fed announced a third rate cut this year. However, according to the updated economic forecasts (SEP), the Fed expects only two rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2025, instead of the four announced earlier in September. This more conservative approach reflects the continued resilience of the economy and the difficult situation with inflation.

Market reaction: sell-offs and recovery
The Fed's announcement triggered a wave of selling on Wednesday evening, from which the market was unable to recover even on Thursday. However, Friday's rally partially offset the losses. Despite this, the main US stock indexes - the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq - showed an overall decline for the week.

The role of fiscal policy
Uncertainty about fiscal policy, including the possible impact of tariffs, also received attention from Fed officials. Some of them acknowledged that they have begun to factor these risks into their forecasts. Such an approach may influence the regulator's further actions, adding another factor to the equation of economic stability.

Market Correction: Experts Say
"It's pretty obvious what's happening — it's just that this PCE plus the dovish comments from the Fed have offset the market's overreaction to the hawkish cut that everyone was expecting," said Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York.

He added: "We've seen this about 10 times during this Fed cycle. The market just always overreacts to one side or the other."

Key Indexes Are Gaining
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 498.82 points, or 1.18%, to 42,841.06. The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 63.82 points, or 1.09%, to 5,930.90. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 199.83 points, or 1.03%, to close at 19,572.60.

The Dow and S&P both saw their biggest gains in a single day since Nov. 6.

A Week of Controversy
However, all three major indexes ended the week lower overall. The S&P 500 lost 1.99%, the Nasdaq lost 1.78%, and the Dow fell 2.25%. The Nasdaq ended a four-week winning streak, while the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly loss in six weeks. The Dow also fell for a third straight week.

Sectors on the Rise
Despite the weekly decline, all 11 major S&P sectors posted gains on Friday. Real estate (.SPLRCR) led the way, rising 1.8% as Treasury yields fell. The broad rally showed investors are willing to return to active buying despite recent wobbles.

Small-caps: New prospects
Small-cap stocks tracked by the Russell 2000 (.RUT) rose 0.9%. These assets often benefit from a lower interest rate environment, making them an attractive choice for investors in the current environment.

Congress Averts Crisis
Investors were closely watching developments in the U.S. Congress on Friday, which took steps to prevent a partial federal government shutdown. House Republican leaders said they would vote to keep the government open, adding stability to the market.

Broad Gains in Stocks
Advance stocks outnumbered decliners 2.84-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday, while the Nasdaq outnumbered decliners 2.12-to-1. The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 23 new lows, while the Nasdaq posted 51 new highs and 233 new lows.

Triple Witchcraft and Volume Boost
Friday's session was made special by the simultaneous expiration of quarterly equity, index option, and futures derivatives contracts, known as the "triple witchcraft." This event significantly boosted trading volume, which totaled 21.58 billion shares, well above the 14.87 billion average over the past 20 trading days.

December's Challenges: Looking Ahead
December has so far disappointed investors, turning out to be one of the most challenging months for the market in an otherwise strong 2024. The S&P 500 has gained 24% year-to-date, but continues to struggle. Traditionally, the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January, known as the "Santa Claus Rally," average gains of 1.3%. However, this year could see a departure from that trend.

Fed Disappointment, Sectors in the Red
The S&P 500 suffered its biggest daily drop since August on Wednesday after the Fed disappointed investors by offering a less aggressive rate cut for 2025. There are also problems beneath the surface, with eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors in the red in December and the S&P 500 down 7%.

Rising Bond Yields and Overvalued Stocks
Another source of tension in the market is rising Treasury yields. The 10-year yield rose to 4.55%, the highest in six months. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said the rise is putting pressure on stocks, especially with the S&P 500 trading at 21.6 times projected earnings, well above the historical average of 15.8.

Santa Claus Rally: Hopes and Reality
The Santa Claus Rally period, which covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two Januarys, traditionally brings gains to the market. Historical data shows that 90% of such periods have predicted a positive outcome for the year. However, in 2024, experts like Carlson suggest that the main gains have already occurred in November, when the market gained 5.7% amid political events.

Market Narrowing: A Warning Sign
A narrowing rally, with fewer stocks gaining, is also a cause for concern. It could mean the market is becoming less resilient, which in turn dampens investors' holiday spirits.

Tech Giants Show Strength
Some mega-cap companies continue to delight investors. Tesla (TSLA.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) have shown impressive results, rising 22% and more than 13%, respectively, in December. Broadcom (AVGO.O) was another winner, with shares soaring 36% on expected strong demand for its AI chips, pushing the company's market value above $1 trillion.

Trouble Below the Surface
But such gains are becoming increasingly rare. The number of S&P 500 stocks that are falling has outnumbered those that are advancing for 13 straight sessions, the longest losing streak since 2012.

In addition, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages has fallen to 56%, the lowest in a year, according to data from Adam Turnquist of LPL Financial.

Analysts Take a Cautious Approach
"We recommend waiting for support to establish and momentum to improve before intensifying dip-buying," Turnquist wrote in a research note issued after a significant sell-off in the market on Wednesday.
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Dollar Extinguishes All Candles

The brief rally for the EUR/USD currency pair didn't last long. A slowdown in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve—to 0.1% month-over-month in November, along with statements from FOMC officials indicating that monetary easing would continue into 2025, seemed to trigger a corrective response for the main currency pair. However, comments from Donald Trump on social media and emerging vulnerabilities in the euro brought the situation back to square one.

The president-elect of the United States does not intend to spare anyone. He initially focused on Mexico, Canada, and China. Then, he turned his attention to BRICS countries. However, he didn't stop there; he announced that if the European Union did not increase its purchases of oil and gas from the U.S., he would impose tariffs on European imports. This decision put additional pressure on the euro, as such tariffs could further slow down an already fragile European economy.

Recent forecasts from Bloomberg experts indicate that the eurozone's GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2025, a decrease from the previously anticipated 1.2%. In 2026, growth is projected to be 1.2%, lower than the earlier estimate of 1.4%. These revised estimates are below the European Central Bank's projections, which further emphasize the vulnerability of the euro area.

Eurozone Economic Trends and Forecasts

Germany, once considered the growth engine of Europe, is now causing further economic decline. Analysts forecast that its economy will expand by only 0.4% next year, followed by a 1% growth the year after that.

In contrast, the U.S. economy appears to be performing well. The Atlanta Fed's leading indicator suggests a GDP growth of 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Futures markets show a 91% probability that the Fed will pause its monetary easing cycle in January. Meanwhile, the ECB intends to continue reducing interest rates. Christine Lagarde has stated that the ECB is approaching the point where it can assert that inflation has been brought down to the target level of 2%. If this is the case, there would be little reason to maintain high borrowing costs. The increasing interest rate differential favoring the U.S. could lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Hedge funds and asset managers are increasingly adopting net long positions on the dollar, reaching their highest levels since May. According to HSBC, the dollar is "hitting all the right notes" and shows no signs of weakening in 2025. Additionally, Wells Fargo suggests that Trump's political agenda, including tariffs, will further boost the USD index rally.

Speculative Positions in the U.S. Dollar

It is highly likely that the U.S. dollar will break tradition and end December in a positive position. This month is typically considered seasonally weak for the American currency, which usually declines at year-end. However, every rule has its exceptions.

In the daily chart, another attempt by EUR/USD bulls to launch a counterattack has ended in failure, further demonstrating their weakness. The recent retracement offers an opportunity to open or expand previously established short positions, targeting levels of 1.012 and 1.000. Sticking to the current strategy of selling on pullbacks remains the most logical course of action.
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Oil Compresses the Spring: Awaiting an Explosion!

The upper levels can't, and the lower levels won't? Speculators have increased their oil purchases at the fastest pace since September 2023, driven by expectations that new sanctions against Russia and Iran will tighten supply, while China's stimulus measures will boost demand. However, Brent crude oil prices remain stubbornly stagnant, neither rising nor dropping significantly. Is a revolutionary situation brewing in the oil market? If so, any breakout from the current medium-term range may have to wait until 2025. After all, Christmas is typically a time to pause business activities.

Dynamics of Speculative Positions in Oil

U.S. President Joe Biden signed a government funding bill that extends through March 2025, which has brought joy to financial markets. A slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by a government shutdown would have been detrimental to investors. Currently, the U.S. is a key driver of global GDP growth and oil demand. Bloomberg experts project a decrease of 2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending December 20, which is likely to support Brent and WTI oil prices.

However, China, India, and other Asian countries are expected to be the primary contributors to global oil demand growth in 2025, accounting for approximately 60% of the increase. OPEC forecasts an increase of 1.45 million barrels per day (b/d), while the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates it at 1.08 million b/d.

Global Oil Demand Structure

However, the reality may not be as optimistic. The U.S.-China trade war is likely to slow down the Chinese economy. In 2023, China accounted for 16% of global oil demand, equivalent to 16.4 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase from just 9% in 2008. However, the country's strong demand for electric vehicles and its ongoing real estate crisis are reducing its appetite for oil. Gasoline and diesel fuel demand is believed to have peaked and is projected to be 3.6% lower in 2024 than it was in 2021.

U.S. tariffs on imports from China are causing concern in the oil market. For example, Donald Trump's statement that the European Union could face tariffs if it doesn't increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas diminished bullish momentum for Brent crude. Consequently, the price of this North Sea grade quickly returned to consolidation, and its price movement now resembles a spring that is being compressed. The question remains: when will it explode?

Oil concludes 2024 with mixed sentiments. Optimists expect to see growth in global demand, particularly from Asia and the U.S. In contrast, pessimists warn that non-OPEC+ countries may inundate the market with new supplies, potentially leading to a decrease in prices.

From a technical perspective, a triangle pattern continues to form on the daily Brent chart. A breakout above the upper boundary near $74 per barrel could create opportunities for long positions. On the other hand, a decisive breach of the $72 support level would suggest the potential for selling. An aggressive short entry might be considered if the price successfully tests the fair value at $72.45.
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Will the Bank of Japan Intervene?

Recent media reports have raised concerns about potential intervention by the Bank of Japan due to a significant weakening of the national currency, which has declined by approximately 13% since October. Many banks and investment firms view this as a likely scenario ahead of the Japanese central bank's meeting in January. Let's analyze this situation using technical analysis to find an answer.

On the daily chart, we apply three Fibonacci time zones:

The first zone from the July peak (brown color).
The second zone from the September low (blue color).
The third zone from the December 3rd low (green color).
We identified a point where three timelines from different zones converge around January 12–13: the 11th line of the brown grid, the 10th line of the blue grid, and the 8th line of the green grid. However, since the chart does not account for future weekends—including the New Year holiday—the adjusted date is closer to January 21–22, coinciding with the BOJ meeting scheduled for January 23–24. It seems that following this meeting, a long-term strengthening of the yen may begin, potentially breaking below the December low and dipping beneath the lower boundary of the ascending pink price channel. In this context, the prospect of intervention becomes less significant, as the USD/JPY pair could decline due to an interest rate hike.

There is still a month until the central bank meeting. During this time, a local decline in the currency pair is possible, potentially approaching either the red line of the descending channel or the pink line of the ascending channel. A short-term rise to the 158.70 level may follow, which could ultimately form a triangular (flag-like) pattern. Alternatively, a different chart pattern might emerge if the price fails to break above the upper boundary of the descending price channel (a descending flag).
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