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Date: 27th November 2024.

S&P500 at its 52nd new peak for 2024; USD Firmer, Kiwi & Yen Up.



Asia & European Sessions:

*Wall Street rallied into the close with the S&P500 and Dow registering more record highs with the S&P500 climbing 0.57% to 6045, its 52nd new peak for 2024. The Dow rose 0.28% to 44,860.3 for its 46th record of the year. The NASDAQ advanced 0.63%.
*Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions.
*President Biden announced Israel and Hezbollah have reached a cease fire. Over the next 60 days the Lebanese army and state security will take control of their own territory and Israel will gradually withdraw its forces.
*FOMC minutes: Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting revealed officials leaning toward a cautious approach to future rate cuts. All agreed to cut the rate by -25 bps and nearly all thought risks between achieving employment and inflation goals were “roughly in balance.” Upside risks to the inflation outlook were little changed, and while inflation had eased, it remained elevated. The implied December rate continues to hover around a 50-50 bet as we await the PCE price data Wednesday and the crucial jobs report on December 6. The January 2025 rate is priced for a total of 20 bps in cuts, with -75 bps by January 2026.
*RBNZ cut its cash rate by 50 bps, yet the Kiwi gained as traders analyzed the central bank’s rate outlook and the governor’s remarks.
*Chinese government approved a 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) bond quota, enabling two state-owned asset managers to issue bonds for funding projects aimed at spurring economic growth.
*Today: US inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex has dropped to currently 106.459.
*The Yen climbed with USDJPY pulling back to 151.82, while NZDUSD jumped to 0.5900 despite the RBNZ’s 50 bps rate cut.
*Oil prices stabilized at $68.84, with optimism over delayed OPEC+ output increases balancing the reduced geopolitical risk stemming from the ceasefire.
*Gold rebounds to 2653.54, with next Resistance at 2660-2664.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd December 2024.

Dollar Strength Ahead of Key Employment Data Pressures Gold!


Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

*Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. The US Dollar Index opens higher on Monday after declining for 5 consecutive days.
*According to experts, there is a 67% chance of a rate cut in December from the Fed. However, the decision depends on the NFP and next week’s inflation rate.
*France’s parliament clash on Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s tweaks to the 2025 budget. Le Pen threatens to support a vote of no confidence. European indices decline.
*Oil prices drop back below $70 per barrel supporting US stocks.

Gold – A Stronger US Dollar Pressures Gold!

The price of Gold sharply fell over 1.00% in the opening hours of the Asian and European session taking the price down to Thursday’s support level. The main reason for the decline is the rise in the price of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index opened on a 0.30% bullish price gap and rose a further 0.23% thereafter. The price of Gold this week will largely be dependent on the US employment data and its effect on the Federal Fund Rate.



Employment data will be made public throughout the week, marking the final update before the US Federal Reserve’s December meeting. This includes tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings, Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change and Friday’s NFP data. Notably, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose from 2.1% to 2.3%, with the core index climbing from 2.7% to 2.8%. Strong employment figures could strengthen the case against further monetary policy easing, casting doubt on the likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December.

While most experts currently anticipate this adjustment, they expect regulators to pause early next year to evaluate the potential impacts of trade policy decisions announced by newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration. If the likelihood of a rate cut remains high, the price of Gold is likely to find support. Whereas, strong employment data and a pause will pressure Gold and support the Dollar further.

Due to today’s decline, the price of gold shows a bearish bias as the price falls below the trend-line and the 100-bar Moving Average. However, the current momentum will determine whether the price obtains a short-term signal indicating a correction or decline. If the price increases above $2632.62 a short-term signal indicating a correction is likely to arise. If the price falls below $2,626.45, the signal will indicate the continuation of downward momentum.

EURUSD – The Euro Falls As European Politics Trigger Lower Confidence.

The worst performing currency of the day is the Euro which is declining against all currencies. The Euro index currently trades 0.58% lower mainly due to political tension in France and Germany.



Finance Minister Antoine Armand dismissed Marine Le Pen’s push for artificial budget deadlines, even as the far-right leader signaled readiness to topple the government this week. Le Pen’s party has threatened a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier. This is due to the PM adjusting the 2025 budget to include inflation-linked pension indexing and other demands.

S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMIs are expected to stay the same in Germany (43.2 points) and the eurozone (45.2 points). Meanwhile, markets are awaiting October’s data on the Eurozone unemployment rate, currently at 6.3%, along with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who may provide updates on the central bank’s monetary policy plans.

While experts believe the ECB is unlikely to make a sharp policy easing, some board members, including Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, have suggested that a 50-basis-point rate cut in December remains a possibility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd December 2024.

High Bond Yields Boost Euro, But ECB Signals December Cut!


Trading Leveraged Producys is Risky

*The French government is close to collapse due to the French Prime Minister’s persistence on the latest budget.
*French bond yields rise to their highest since 2012 and the Euro attempts to correct upwards during this morning’s session.
*According to state central banks, the ECB will continue cutting interest rates in December. Is the current bullish Euro temporary?
*The SNP500 renewed its highs for a second consecutive day mainly due to gains from Meta, Tesla and Microsoft.

EURUSD – ECB Members Indicate Cut For December!

The US Dollar is declining in value against most currencies this morning after significant gains on Monday. However, the performance throughout the week will depend on the JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, NFP and US Unemployment Rate.



Positive dynamics have been unfolding amid Trump’s warning to BRICS nations against creating a currency alternative to the US Dollar, threatening 100% tariffs on their exports. Experts fear this signals a potential trade war with China, India, Russia, and others. Moscow countered that forcing reliance on the Dollar could erode its appeal as a reserve currency.

Meanwhile, investors await November employment data. With private consumption rising (2.1% to 2.3%) and core inflation increasing (2.7% to 2.8%), further labor market strength could challenge a December rate cut of 25 basis points. Most experts still expect the Fed to proceed, but a pause in rate cuts is anticipated early next year.

Currently, the Euro is the second best performing currency of the day behind the Australian Dollar. Many believe this is partially due to the competitive price and high Bond Yields. However, this can quickly change as the ECB’s dovishness and France’s political and budget crisis continue. ECB Governing Board member Yannis Stournaras indicated today that interest rates are likely to be cut further in December, with experts anticipating a 25 basis point reduction.

For the Euro to maintain a buy signal in the short-term, the price will need to rise above $2,647.92 and this afternoon’s JOLTS Job Opening to fall below expectations.

SNP500 – Stocks Reach All-Time High!

The SNP500 so far this year is trading 27.50% higher and is at an all time high. This is mainly due to gains from Meta, Tesla and Microsoft. On Monday, 59% of the most influential stocks rose in value.

Wedbush Securities reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating on Apple shares with a $300 target, citing a potential record 240 million iPhone sales in fiscal 2025, driven by the new Apple Intelligence AI feature. Last month, Apple reported $94.9 billion in revenue and $1.64 EPS, beating forecasts and last year’s figures.

The performance of the SNP500 will depend on this week’s employment data, similar to the US Dollar. Most analysts believe the ideal scenario for the stock market is for the data to come in as expected.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.