Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

Date: 19th July 2024.

Global Stocks Tumble as Risk Appetite Plummets!


US ECONOMY

* The NASDAQ declines for a third straight day and fell to its lowest level for July.
* Netflix Quarterly Earnings Report unable to support US indices. The Dow Jones loses momentum after 6 straight bullish days.
* The US Dollar Index attempts to regain losses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays
* The British Pound comes under pressure from the decline in Retail Sales. However, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be the worst performing currency.

GBPUSD

The British Pound against the US Dollar is losing momentum for two reasons. The first is that the exchange rate is largely being driven by the Dollar which has risen in value across the board. The US Dollar Index is attempting to regain loses from earlier in the week and trades 0.65% higher than yesterdays open. This is partially due to the lower price but also the lower investor sentiment as stocks falls over the past 3 trading days.



The second reason is the poor economic data from the UK which is likely to pressure the Bank of England to adjust interest rates at the next meeting. According to economists a 25-basis point cut at the next meeting is not yet certain. However, a cut will take place either on the 1st of August or September 19th unless something drastic changes. The poor data includes the number of new unemployed individuals which has considerably risen over the past 2 months. This morning, the UK government also confirmed Retail Sales has fallen 1.2% which is double the decline previously expected.

For the US, weekly employment data was released yesterday: the number of Unemployment claims rose by 243,000, exceeding both the forecast of 229,000 and the previous figure of 223,000. Additionally, the total number of citizens receiving government assistance increased from 1.847 million to 1.867 million, raising the likelihood of interest rate adjustments in September. According to most analysts, the rate cut for September is fully priced in at around 103.20 for as long as other central banks also adjust.

The US Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, published this week, indicates that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace, but businesses expect a slowdown over the next six months due to the US election campaign and consumers struggling with prices. However, the lower risk appetite is triggering higher demand for the Dollar over the past 48 hours. It’s vital investors continue to monitor the US Dollar Index while analysing the GBPUSD.

The price of the exchange is now trading below the 75-Period EMA and below the 50.00 on the RSI. This indicates low sentiment towards the Pound and bearish control for the time being. Fibonacci retracement levels indicate a sell signal will arise at the 1.29290 price whereas the breakout level indicates 1.29261. however, if the price rises above 1.29400 or the trendline, short-term sell signals become unlikely.

USA100

The price of the NASDAQ has now fallen for 3 consecutive days but did see less downward momentum compared to Wednesday’s collapse. The index has now fully corrected the gains for the first 2 weeks of the month and is trading close to the previous support level. However, as previously mentioned, due to the higher economic risk, investors will most likely need strong earnings data to be tempted to purchase the discount unless the price becomes even more favourable.



The price of Bond Yields has risen during this morning’s Asian session and the VIX is also trading slightly higher. The VIX this week has already added almost 10% which indicates a significant decline in risk appetite. In addition to this, the poor data from the rest of the world’s leading economies can also damage sentiment towards stocks. Currently the biggest indication for short term upward price movement is the lower price and potential upcoming earnings data.

Netflix has released their earnings report overnight. The company’s earnings read 2.40% higher than expectations at $4.88 and revenue was 3 million higher than expectations. However, the stock is yet to see any major volatility or support. Currently the stock trades 0.18% lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd July 2024.

Market News – Uncertainty remains the bane of the markets!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* President Biden announced he is withdrawing from the re-election campaign. In a subsequent comment, he stated his support for Kamala Harris. He will address the nation later this week. This throws the Democrat party into more disarray as it heads into its convention from August 19-22.
* These uncertainties will further shake up the markets when trading opens.
* For weeks, investors have speculated about an increased likelihood of Donald Trump winning the November election, especially after Biden’s underwhelming debate performance. Now, with Biden exiting the race, investors are reconsidering their strategies regarding a potential Trump victory.
* China’s PBoC cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by -10 bps to 1.70% from 1.80% in a surprise move coming out of the Third Plenum.
* Earnings: Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. will kick off earnings reports for the “Magnificent Seven” on Tuesday, while major European banks are set to report their earnings this week as well. Analysts will be watching to see if the benefits from higher interest rates are diminishing and how recent political developments are impacting market sentiment.

Asian & European Open:

* It is a cautious, choppy start to trading in the wake of the news. This negative start to the week mirrored the losses seen on Wall Street on Friday, as businesses globally dealt with a major technology outage.
* Asian stock markets mostly fell after President Joe Biden’s announcement. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has rallied 0.82% but the Nikkei is down -1.3% amid the fallout from Friday’s slump on Wall Street.
* US futures remained relatively stable while European stock futures are higher.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has traded narrowly, but initially dropped to 103.90 versus Friday’s close at 104.396. It is mixed against its G10 peers.
* USDCNY has been jumpy, impacted both by the PBoC’s news as well as the Biden news earlier. The buck rose to 7.2737 in early action before sliding to 7.2706. It has edged back to 7.2730.
* Metals showed mixed results following their worst weekly decline in nearly two years, with a rate cut in China helping to stabilize the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd July 2024.

Market News – Asia stocks up; Yen Strengthens.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Markets paused after recent volatility and a tech selloff driven by high valuations and sector rotation.
* US election developments continue to dominate, with Kamala Harris securing enough pledged delegates for the Democratic presidential nomination, providing some political clarity.
* Asian stocks climbed, driven by gains in chipmakers following a Wall Street rebound ahead of major tech earnings reports.
* Treasury yields fell ahead of economic data releases and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Throughout July, speculation about a September rate cut boosted shorter-term bonds, narrowing their yield gap with longer-term securities.

Asian & European Open:

* US equity futures dipped, and Euro Stoxx 50 contracts rose in anticipation of earnings from Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. later today.
* Nasdaq and S&P500 were both up more than 1%, reversing some of last week’s painful decline.
* The “Magnificent Seven” stocks rose over 2% on Monday, led by Tesla and Nvidia Corp.
* Toyota Motor Corp. plans to repurchase shares from major Japanese banks and insurers as part of a ¥1 trillion buyback plan.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex remains in a ranging market, between 103.90-104.15.
* The Yen appreciated against the US Dollar, as traders adjusted their carry positions during the summer holiday season, with USDJPY breaching 156.20. Some Bank of Japan officials are open to raising rates at the July meeting, though weak consumer spending complicates the decision.
* Oil prices remained steady near a 6-week low as traders awaited new data on market balances and US stockpile forecasts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th July 2024.

Market News – Stocks dip as earnings disappoint; Yen strengthens further.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* The market faces pressure entering a seasonally weak period, with potential increased volatility due to the upcoming US presidential election.
* Asian stocks and US stock futures also fell, impacted by earnings reports from large American firms like Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc., which were seen as insufficient to sustain the recent global equity rally.
* European stock futures declined as investors evaluated the disappointing initial results from the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech companies.
* The Yen strengthened for the third consecutive day ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting.

Asian & European Open:

* The S&P500 and Dow slipped -0.16% and -0.14%, respectively, and the NASDAQ slid -0.06%. The VIX was down -1.74% to 14.65 and has eased from the 16.52 level on Friday, the highest since April amid rising political risks and anxieties.
* Taiwan’s stock market was closed due to Typhoon Gaemi, meaning shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. did not trade.
* Alphabet shares fell after the company indicated that it would take time to see tangible results from its AI investments.
* Tesla shares dropped as much as 7% following a profit miss and a delay in its Robotaxi event to October. Many of Tesla’s suppliers and electric vehicle peers in Asia also saw declines.
* Deutsche Bank AG reported its first quarterly loss in 4 years due to a slowdown in trading and a charge related to a legacy issue at its Postbank retail unit.
* BNP Paribas SA’s profit increased in the second quarter, driven by a surge in equities trading revenue.
* United Parcel Service Inc. experienced its worst drop ever following a profit miss.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex had found its footing, firming to 104.25 versus 103.90 on Monday.
* The Yen appreciated beyond 155 for the first time since early June as traders anticipated a potential interest rate hike from the BOJ in the coming months, if not at next week’s meeting. According to a Bloomberg survey, around 30% of BOJ watchers expect a rate hike on July 31, but over 90% believe there is a risk of such a move.
* The NZDUSD dropped at 0.5900 to its lowest level in nearly 3 months as lower bond yields discouraged carry trade investors.
* Oil fell -1.45% to $77.26, though managed to edge up from the $76.40 session low. It is a 4th straight decline from $82.85 Wednesday and the weakest since mid-June. Most of week’s selling was on technicals after penetrating 50- and 100-day MA.
* Gold is up to $2418 per ounce. It was at an all-time closing peak of $2469.08 on July 16 amid expectations for Fed rate cuts, US political risks, and the drop in the US Dollar. Of note, India lowered its import duty on gold to 6% from 15% which should support jewelry manufacturing. India is next only to China in terms of consumer demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th July 2024.

Market News – AI mania over? Stocks, Gold & oil dip; Yen Surges.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Wall Street plunged and Treasuries bear steepened in an anxious trade.
* News that ex-Fed president Dudley was now calling for the FOMC to cut rates next week amid recession fears added to investor angst.
* European stock markets continued to decline alongside Asian equity futures, intensifying a global downturn in technology shares following US session, as investors are pulling back on the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered the bull market this year.
* Traders moved away from megacaps to underperforming segments of the market, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and doubts about AI’s immediate payoff.
* Nasdaq experienced its largest single-day drop since 2022, while S&P 500 breaks Its longest run without a 2% drop since 2007.
* The Canadian Dollar dropped as the Bank of Canada cut rates, emphasizing “downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations.”
* The Japanese Yen reached its highest level since May as carry trades unwound.
* Key events today: Germany IFO business climate, US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods.

Asian & European Open:

* Tech led the slump with the NASDAQ dropping -3.64%, the biggest 1-day selloff since March 2020. The S&P500 fell -2.31%. The Dow dropped -1.25%. Disappointing news from Alphabet and Tesla after the bell Tuesday got the bears going and rising concerns over the staying power of AI trades exacerbated declines through the day.
* In Japan, Nikkei entered a technical correction while the broad Topix index, which had reached a record high earlier this month, plunged over 2.5%, erasing its July gains and hitting a five-week low.
* Earning: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to report results next week.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex tumbled to 104.12 in morning action, down from Tuesday’s 104.45, but rallied back slightly to close at 104.37.
* The Yen holds strong thanks to expectations for a BoJ rate hike next Wednesday, with USDJPY breaching 200-day EMA. The USD firmed versus CAD after the BoC’s dovish cut. The USDCAD reached April’s peak at 1.3827.
* Oil prices declined, but are once again trying to stabilize, following API data showing that US crude inventories declined by 3.9 million barrels last week. Inventories have declined for four straight weeks now. However, weak growth in top importer China and renewed optimism of a ceasefire in the Middle East have kept supply expectations underpinned. WTI is currently trading at USD 77.38 per barrel, Brent at USD 81.49 as markets wait for the official U.S. inventory report.
* Gold is down to $2370 to a two-week low. The downfall could be attributed to some technical selling, though it is expected to be limited, considering the fundamentals, such as Fed’s cut and the risk-off mood which could support Gold ahead of the US data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th July 2024.

The Yen Soars as the Likelihood of a BoJ Rate Hike Rises!



* The Japanese Yen wins back some lost ground as global Central Banks edge closer to rate cuts.
* The probability of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan increases.
* July’s best performing currencies are the Japanese Yen (+4.35%), British Pound (+1.41%) and the Swiss Franc (+1.41%).
* Currencies are taking advantage of the weaker US Dollar, but the worst performing currency remains the New Zealand Dollar.

USDJPY – Growing Likelihood of a Second BoJ Rate Hike!

The USDJPY increases in value for a third consecutive week and for a fourth consecutive day. Three factors are contributing to the Dollar decline: The Fed’s upcoming interest cut, the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike and the political uncertainty in the US. The day’s best performing currency is the Japanese Yen which is currently increasing in value against all currencies.

Currently, the USDJPY is trading below the trend-line and below the 100-Period SMA which indicates in the medium-term sellers are controlling the price actions. The exchange rate is also below the neutral on all oscillators and forms a clear bearish trend price pattern. Currently the only indications pointing towards a loss of bearish momentum is the diversion formed on the RSI. As a result, even though the trend clearly forms downwards, investors need to be cautious of a potential retracement. If the price trades above 152.96, a larger retracement becomes likely. However, if the price falls below 152.015, momentum will indicate the continuation of the downward trend to 151.674 in the short term and 151.267 thereafter.



The likelihood of further monetary policy tightening by the Japanese regulator is growing. Preliminary data for July showed an increase in business activity, indicating a recovery in the national economy. The consumer price index remains above the target level, reaching 2.8% in June, with the core indicator stabilizing around 2.6%. Officials are optimistic about maintaining these high levels, supported by significant wage increases.

According to Reuters, Bank of Japan officials will discuss the possibility of raising the interest rate at their meeting on July 31st. Analysts do not expect active measures until after the summer months. However, investors will price in the adjustment before the decision takes place.

The US Fed experts may turn to “dovish” rhetoric in September, which puts pressure on the dollar. Currently, inflation is slowing growth, business activity is declining, and the labor market is showing signs of cooling.

The US PMI data from yesterday largely triggered an attempted bullish correction but was viewed as mixed. The price action of the US Dollar and the USDJPY will now largely depend on the Gross Domestic Product and Weekly Unemployment Claims. These will be made public at 12:30 GMT. Analysts expect the US economy to grow 2.0%. If the US GDP reading is lower than expectations, the US Dollar potentially can come under pressure. At the same time, weaker earnings data from the US can trigger higher demand for the Japanese Yen. The Yen is known as a safe haven currency alternative to the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th July 2024.

The Japanese Yen Leads as Global Central Banks Anticipate Cuts!


A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, September 21, 2016. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo - RTX2UM36

* Markets watch global central banks confirm their latest rate decision. This week includes Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve and Bank of England.
* Global stocks rose on Monday! The NASDAQ rises 0.67% as major tech-earnings edge nearer.
* Tuesday’s earnings releases include Microsoft, ADM and Starbucks.
* Analysts expect the Fed to ready the markets for their first interest rate cut since 2020.

USA100 – Market Shows A “Risk-On” Appetite Ahead Of Microsoft Earnings!

After a nearly 10% drop in July, the NASDAQ seeks to regain momentum before a major bank decision. This week’s central bank decisions include Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged but signal to the market that an adjustment will take place in September. However, according to most analysts, the Bank of England is more likely to cut than the Fed if a shock decision is to take place.

The latest price action forms higher highs and lows but continues to remain below the recent high from June 25th. As a result, technical analysts advise a correction is not yet fully signaled. According to fundamentalists, strong earnings data on Tuesday is not likely required to strengthen signals pointing to a full correction.


Tuesday evening will see Microsoft, AMD and Starbucks release their latest earnings reports. The three companies make up more than 10% of the weight of the NASDAQ, hence can trigger strong volatility. Analysts expect Microsoft, the second most influential stock for the NASDAQ, to see earnings remain unchanged from the previous quarter and revenue to rise by $2.58 billion. The stock this year so far has risen 14.70% and $52 below its recent high.

According to fundamental analysts, if the earnings data from Microsoft and AMD beat expectations and the Fed confirms a rate cut in September, the possibility of a correction significantly increases, if not certain. Currently, the market movement indicates a higher risk appetite and sentiment amongst investors. All global indices are trading higher including the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei225. In addition to this, US bond yields fall as does the VIX. If both continue to fall, the movement will indicate a “risk on” appetite.

GBPJPY – Will the BoE Adjust Interest Rates?

The Japanese Yen has been by far the best performing currency over the past week, increasing in value by 2.50%. The British Pound is also the worst performing currency of the day declining by 0.20%. According to experts, the Bank of England is not likely to cut interest rates at this week’s rate decision but will lay the path down for a rate cut at the next meeting.

Suren Thiru, economics director at the ICAEW, advises he still expects the BoE to lower interest rates to 4.75% by the end of 2024, however, “a rate cut this month is looking less likely”,whereas a Reuters poll found that 80.0% of respondents, expect the UK regulator to cut interest rates in August. Nonetheless, a shock rate cut or a clear signal for the next rate decision can still pressure the British Pound if the signal is clear enough. Simultaneously, the JPY is benefiting as the only currency to see a strengthening monetary policy while the rest of the world cuts.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th July 2024.

US Employment Data in the Spotlight as Fed Decision Looms


US ECONOMY

* The US Dollar Index rises to its highest level in 20 days and breaks above its recent price range.
* The market turns its attention to tomorrow tonight’s Federal Reserve Press Conference. Investors will be monitoring any indications of rate cuts for September.
* Analysts again expect the consumer confidence to drop below the 100 level, but investors are more concerned about lower job openings.
* McDonald’s stocks rise as the company confirms a new meal plan to target lower-income consumers. Company earnings miss expectations.

EURUSD – Will US Data Prompt A Dovish Fed?

The EURUSD exchange rate is likely to witness high volatility throughout the day as Germany and Spain are due to release their latest inflation data. In addition to this, the US will release the CB Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings. The US Dollar Index is currently trading 0.13% higher and is rising for a second consecutive day. The Euro Index is currently unchanged and struggled on Monday.



The value of the US Dollar is likely to continue to be influenced by the timing and frequency of interest rate adjustments. As a result, the Chairman’s press conference will play a significant role. The Federal Reserve will not change its Fund Rate, but investors believe the Chairman, Jerome Powell, will provide concrete indications for a September and December cut. If Mr Powell is deemed dovish and points towards 2 rate cuts, the US Dollar can potentially come under pressure.

The downward pressure can gain momentum today, before tomorrow’s Federal Reserve Statement and Press Conference. If today’s JOLTS Job Opening reads lower than expectations (8.02 million), it would be the lowest seen since April 2021. This would fall in line with previous guidance regarding lower economic growth in the second half of 2024. As a result, the Dollar can witness pressure and the Fed may become more dovish.

The Euro on the other hand will depend largely on the German inflation data. So far, Spain has released their inflation figures which showed that Spanish inflation fell from 3.4% to 2.8% and below the previous expectation of 3.00%. The release has put some pressure on the exchange rate, but not lasting downward pressure. If German inflation also reads lower, the Euro can witness a potential stronger selloff.

The value of the EURUSD remains below the trend line, sentiment line and the neutral on the RSI. In addition to this, the asset trades in the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. However, after yesterday’s quick decline the exchange rate has retraced back upwards. Therefore, investors will be monitoring when the asset regains bearish momentum. If upward momentum gains momentum, the trend-line points towards a target at 1.08495 or 1.08420.

USA500 – Will The Price Break The Ascending Triangle Pattern?

The SNP500 forms an ascending triangle pattern which is known to indicate bullish price movement, but only if the price can form a clear breakout. The resistance level at $5,499.12 is key for this as it has triggered a decline on 4 occasions over the past 4 trading days. In addition to this, the level falls in line with the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA.



McDonald’s released their quarterly earnings report on Monday. The company’s earnings fell 3% lower than expectations while revenue was 2% lower. However, the stock still rose by almost 4.00% as the company said a new $5 meal plan will start to entice lower income consumers.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 31st July 2024.

How Are Earnings Shaping the NASDAQ?



* Microsoft stocks fell 2.70% as Cloud revenue read lower than previous expectations. Overall earnings and revenue beat expectations.
* AMD and Starbucks stocks rise after releasing their quarterly earnings reports.
* Earnings support the NASDAQ after the index falls to a new monthly low.
* Meta, Qualcomm and Lam Research are due to release their earnings reports after today’s market close.

USA100 – How Will Investors View The NASDAQ After The Recent Earnings Data!

Yesterday, the NASDAQ fell 1.81%, hitting a recent low and pushing the index 10.50% below its recent highs. However, the decline came to a halt as the earnings from influential companies prompted investors to purchase at the lower price. Microsoft, AMD and Starbucks made public their latest earnings report after the market close.



Microsoft stocks, the second most influential stock holding a weight of 8.49%, fell 2.70% after releasing their earnings. The price fell due to the Cloud revenue not reaching previous expectations. However, investors should note that earnings from the Cloud sector have still significantly risen from the previous quarters and the company overall beat earnings and revenue expectations. Microsoft earnings beat expectations by 0.25% and Revenue by 0.45%.

On the other hand, AMD and Starbucks stocks rose in value after releasing their reports. AMD stocks rose 7.64% and Starbucks 3.63%. This evening, after the US market closes, Meta, Qualcomm and Lam Research will release their quarterly figures. The 3 stocks make up a weight of 6.56%. This is a moderate weight and not as influential as the above-mentioned stocks. However, the release can still significantly change the sentiment towards the stock market.

The stock market fell after the US’s JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence beat expectations set by analysts. Investors will continue to monitor employment data throughout the week. However, tonight’s Federal Reserve press conference and forward guidance will be key for the foreseeable future. Particularly, a clear indication of a rate cut in September and another by the end of the year.

Analysts advise the regulator will maintain the base rate at 5.25–5.50% for the eighth consecutive meeting. However, during the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell might hint at a 0.25% point rate cut in September, the first in over four years. Futures tied to the US interest rate suggest the possibility of three rate cuts this year, though most experts anticipate only two, in September and December.

The NASDAQ’s price still remains below the trend-line and 100-Period SMA. In addition to this, the RSI trades at the Neutral level. Therefore, the price is not yet obtaining a clear longer-term buy signal yet. However, investors who wish to speculate the recent upward price movement can aim for the recent resistance level at $19,194.03, which is also in line with the trend-line.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th August 2024.

The Dow Jones Drops 2% As JP Morgan Signal Possible Recession.



* JP Morgan advises markets that the economy is at a higher risk of a recession in 2024.
* Representatives of the Federal Reserve advise they will not call for an urgent meeting to cut interest rates.
* Disney beat expectations but theme park visitors significantly fell. Economists advise this shows the drop in consumer demand and the risks of inflation over the past 3 years.
* The Japanese Yen climbs after downward pressure in the first half of the week.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Reaches a Significant Support Level!

The Dow Jones price quickly collapsed after the opening of the US trading session and continues to remain low on Thursday. The decline was largely triggered by the poor performance of Amgen (-5.00%) and Walt Disney (+4.46%). Both stocks came under pressure by the quarterly earnings report which confirmed some risks. On Wednesday, only 35% of the Dow Jones rose in value, while 65% fell.


Dow Jones 2-Hour Chart Illustrating recent Support & Resistance Levels

Disney’s Earnings Per Share for the latest quarter were significantly higher than previous expectations. Earnings were 16% higher while revenue came in as expected. However, the poor performance of the company’s theme parks dampened sentiment and the overall stock market. According to economists, the drop in revenue from theme parks is a result of inflation and lower consumer demand which not only influences Disney’s stocks but the overall market.

In addition to this, throughout the month of August, poor data can be followed by an overreaction as the market’s risk appetite remains low and on the lookout. The next significant quarterly earnings report for the Dow Jones is Home Depot on Tuesday before the market opens.

Another factor which is adding to pressure is the latest comments from JP Morgan, one of the largest US banks of all time. According to JP Morgan, the US economy is now at a higher risk of a recession in 2024, and a recent selloff has wiped out three-quarters of the global carry trade, erasing this year’s gains.

USA30 – Technical Analysis!

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the Dow Jones continues to find support at the $38,577.09 level. However, the price is testing the level for the fourth time this week. The question is, will the index break below the price or find short-term support. Currently the price trades below the 75-Period EMA, 100-Period SMA and below the 50.00 level on the RSI. However, a positive factor is the VIX index trades lower as do bond yields.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th August 2024.

The Dow Jones Rebounds After Reassuring Guidance From Key US Companies!



* Stocks rebound after leading economists come out in force to confirm no recession is approaching.
* The NASDAQ rises 2.87% and the Dow Jones 1.77%. The SNP500 witnesses its best day since November 2022.
* A sense of relief after the Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations.
* The British Pound gets ready for a week full of vital economic data. The GBP remains unchanged prior to the London open.

USA30 – Why The Dow Jones Rose 1.77% On Thursday?

The Dow Jones on Thursday saw a strong rebound which was a result of three elements. The first is that economists came out in force to confirm there is no sign in economic data indicating a recession. Speeches from the CEOs of Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, and Disney said there was no data pointing to a crash. However, they did advise the market is likely to witness high volatility and strong correction in the upcoming months.



Looking at economic data, the US economy remains strongly in the growth zone, but with a more balanced employment sector and weakening consumer demand. The second element supporting the stock market is the Weekly Unemployment Claims. Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations (241,000). Lastly, technical analysts also advised the market was comfortable to buy the dip after the stock market was unable to maintain the downward momentum from Monday.

When monitoring the individual components of the Dow Jones, all stocks ended the day higher. The strongest gains were from Intel which rose 7.90% and Amgen which won back previous losses. Caterpillar also continues to perform well after beating its earnings expectations by 8.00% also adding to the upward momentum. In addition to this, the VIX index trades 0.20% lower this morning, and if the decline increases, the VIX would support a continued correction in the stock market.

Dow Jones (USA30) – Technical Analysis and US Inflation

A key factor in the pricing of the stock market will be next week’s Consumer Price Index. The inflation rate will help determine how much the Federal Reserve will be willing to cut in September. JP Morgan in its latest report advised there is a 35% chance of a recession, and the Fed may cut interest rates by 1.00% in 2024. However, many economists believe the Fed will only cut by 50 basis points in September if inflation falls next week. Lower inflation can support the stock market and further fuel a correction.

The Dow Jones has been trading sideways throughout the Asian session with no clear lasting crossovers. In addition to this, the MACD remains numb and the price trades at the VWAP. Therefore, more volatility is needed to obtain a clear signal. If the price breaks above the 39,551.75 level, a buy signal may arise from the breakout via crossovers and Fibonacci.

GBPEUR – Investors Brace For Crucial UK Data In The Upcoming Week!

The British Pound has significantly fallen in value over the past 3 weeks but has been attempting a correction over the past 3 days. The price is at the average price, but the economic data next week will be crucial for the Pound. A full correction back to 0.83820 or further bullish price movement will depend on the data.

EURGBP – Impact Of High Interest Rates!

In the following week, the UK will release their Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, UK inflation, Retail Sales and the UK’s Gross Domestic Product. These 5 critical economic releases will indicate if the UK economy is solid and expanding or remains under pressure.



It is noteworthy that the UK Finance association has published data indicating the significant impact of high interest rates. Experts highlight that the number of creditors’ claims for repossessing mortgaged properties has reached its highest level in five years. During this period, 96,000 homeowners were in arrears of at least 2.5%.

Additionally, claims for mortgage non-payment rose by 34.0% year-on-year while repossessions of mortgaged properties increased by 31.0% compared to the same period last year. Therefore, it will be vital for the Pound to obtain supporting economic data in the upcoming week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th August 2024.

How Will the Pound Perform Ahead Of A Vital Week For The UK!



* Economists expect the US inflation rate to remain at 3.0% or to drop to 2.9%. Also, economists expect Inflation excluding Food and Energy to drop to 3.2%.
* The Federal Reserve’s Mrs Bowman advises cuts are needed only if inflation continues to decline.
* According to the CME Group, investors are split over whether the Fed will cut 0.50% or 0.25%.
* The US inflation data tomorrow and on Wednesday will determine how the Fed will cut.
* The Dow Jones await key earnings reports from Home Depot (13th August), Cisco Systems (14th August) and Walmart (15th).

GBPJPY – Key UK Data To Determine The Pound’s Value!

The price of the GBPJPY is trading at the recent average price, but the Pound is gaining momentum ahead of vital economic data. The performance of the Great British Pound will depend largely on the upcoming 5 key economic releases. The Japanese Yen on the other hand has slightly lost momentum after the dovishness of the Bank of Japan in their latest press conference. The performance of the Yen will largely depend on the dovishness of the other central banks such as the Fed, Bank of England and European Central Bank.


GBPJPY 2-Hour Chart Showing The Price Rise Above Moving Averages For The First Time Since July 11th.

Throughout the week the UK will release the following key economic releases:

* Claimant Count Change
* Average Earnings Index
* UK Inflation
* Gross Domestic Product
* Retail Sales

The price of the GBP will depend on how the UK economy and inflation has performed over the past month compared to expectations. According to economists, if the UK inflation rate and GDP read higher than expectations, the Pound is likely to strengthen. However, investors will also be looking closely at the UK employment data as the UK Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.4%. If the unemployment rate rises, the UK’s rate will be at its highest in 3-years and can prompt a more dovish central bank.

Currently, the Pound is the best performing currency of the day, except for the AUD and NZD. The AUD and NZD normally tend to lose momentum as the European session opens. However, the New Zealand Dollar is also gaining momentum ahead of the RBNZ’s Rate Decision. The GBP is trading 0.20% higher so far in the Asian session. Technical analyst and economists consider if investors are increasing exposure predicting positive economic data throughout the upcoming week.

In terms of technical analysis, the price of the exchange is trading above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA for the first time since July 11th. The RSI is also trading at 59.00 which indicates buyers may be gaining control. The Japanese Yen index is trading 0.42% lower so far, therefore signalling no conflict, but investors will keep monitoring this throughout the week. Particularly once the US start releasing their inflation data. Prices above 188.405 will see stronger buy signals whereas below 186.477 will see traders look for sell signals.

USA30 (Dow Jones) – Investors Eye US Inflation and This Week’s Quarterly Earnings Reports!

On Friday, the Dow Jones traded in a sideways price range after breaking the resistance level. According to economists, the assets sideways movement is due to shareholders wanting to see the upcoming earnings reports. Economists advise the Dow Jones is appropriately priced and investors will look at economic data and earnings first before determining the intrinsic value of the asset. As a result, US data and the upcoming quarterly earnings report will be key.


The Dow Jones On A 2-Hour Chart.

Previously, bad news was good news for the stock market. However, most shareholders will be hoping for slightly positive economic data to improve the risk appetite of the market. It will be key for the US inflation rate to fall if the stock market is to hope for a full correction back up to 14,000. Many economists advise a full correction is unlikely if inflation does not fall.

The performance of the Dow Jones will depend on the quarterly earnings reports and US inflation. The Federal Reserve’s Mrs Bowman advises cuts are needed only if inflation continues to decline. Markets viewed the comments are cautious and less dovish compared to market expectations. However, if inflation does decline, market will start to price a 50-basis point cut for September.

The Dow Jones awaits key earnings reports from Home Depot (13th August), Cisco Systems (14th August) and Walmart (15th). Over the past 6 months Home Depot stocks have fallen 4.60% and Cisco Systems 9.00%. Walmart stocks have risen almost 20% in 6 months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th August 2024.

The Pound Rises, But Cracks Emerge in the UK Employment Sector.



* The Pound increases in value, but UK employment data signals economic stagnation and weakening employment.
* The UK number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rises 135,000, the highest in over 4 years.
* The Dow Jones trades sideways but this may change as Home Depot is due to release their earnings report.
* Investors turn their attention to the US Producer Inflation Rate which analysts expect to fall to 2.3%.

GBPUSD – UK Employment Data Paints a Dim Picture!

The Great British Pound is increasing in value against the US Dollar and also against all other currencies. However, the economic data coming out of the UK this morning paints a very different picture. Therefore, many investors question whether the Pound will indeed maintain bullish momentum.



The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits from 135,000 within a single month, the highest since the first COVID lockdown. The six-month average for the UK Claimant Count Change (number of unemployment benefits) is 22,233. Therefore, 135,000 added within a single month is a concern for investors and the Bank of England.

In addition to this, the UK Average Earnings Index fell from 5.7% to 4.5% which is lower than expectations. The fall is likely to apply less upward pressure on inflation and can eventually prompt the Bank of England to consider an earlier rate cut. However, the positive from the morning’s UK data is the unemployment rate. The UK unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.2%, a 4-month low.

It is vital for investors to continue monitoring the GBP index, which is currently trading 0.23% higher. However, if data continues to disappoint throughout the week, the traditional react would lead to a weakening of the British Pound. If individual wish to speculate a depreciating GBP, investors also have the option to trade the GBPNZD which has been the best performing currency of the past week.

Regarding the GBPUSD exchange rate, the price will also largely be dependant on this afternoon’s Producer Price Index. As the US session edges closer, investors will turn their attention to the PPI, which analysts expect to fall to 2.3%. If the Producer Price Index reads higher than expectations, the US Dollar may increase in value while the market’s risk appetite declines. As a result, the Pound can quickly give up gains from the past 24 hours.

Currently, the price of the GBPUSD is trading above most moving averages, oscillators and the VWAP indicating potential upward price movement. However, as mentioned above, the price movement will be dependant on the upcoming economic releases. If the price trades above 1.28037 and 1.28092, the exchange rate may rise in value in the short term. However, ideally the US PPI will need to read lower than expectations as the breakout takes place.

USA30 – Investors On Edge Ahead Of Inflation And Home Depot’s Earnings Report!

The Dow Jones continues to honour the price pattern of the previous 2 trading sessions as per yesterday’s analysis. However, this is now likely to change as Home Depot will release their earnings report in the upcoming hours. Additionally, this afternoon’s Producer Price Index will be a key price driver. Shareholders will be hoping for a lower-than-expected PPI.



Home Depot has beat their earnings expectations over the past 4 quarters, but investors will also be looking for guidance for the upcoming quarters. Investors expect Earnings Per Share to rise from $3.63 to $4.55 and for revenue to rise by $6 billion. If the company beat expectations the stock potentially can rise and support the Dow Jones. Over the past 12 months the stock has risen 4.80% and has a dividend yield of 2.60%.

During this morning’s Asian session, the VIX is trading more than 2.00% lower which is positive for the Dow Jones. Investors will continue to monitor the VIX and US Bond Yields. If both decline, the price movement is likely to improve. Throughout the Asian session the Dow Jones has risen 0.32% and is attempting to move back to the resistance level. However, positive data is required to breakout of this level and form a possible bullish trend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th August 2024.

Earnings and Inflation Boost the Dow Jones, Eyes Turn to Walmart’s Report!



* US inflation falls from 3.00% to 2.90% making a September rate cut certain.
* According to the CME Group, there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points.
* Japanese GDP data confirms the economy grew 0.8% in the past quarter. The UK economy sees no growth in the latest month.
* Wednesday’s best performing index was the Dow Jones after Cisco Systems beat earnings and revenue expectations.

USA30 – The Dow Jones Is Wednesday’s Best Performing Index!

The Dow Jones is rarely the best performing index due to its exposure to more stable and less volatile stocks. The upward momentum is largely due to the earnings data from Cisco Systems and Caterpillar. Investors will now turn their attention to the last major quarterly earnings report for the week, Walmart.



80% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value on Wednesday due to the significant rise in investor sentiment. Confidence in the stock market improved after the US inflation rate fell from 3% to 2.9% and the core inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.2%. The lower than previously expected inflation saw the market’s confidence rise and particularly support the Dow Jones.

The Dow Jones also saw momentum rise after Cisco made public their latest quarterly earnings report. Earnings per Share was 2.49% higher than Wall Street’s predictions and the revenue rose by almost $1 billion from the 1st to 2nd quarter. As a result, the stock rose by 5.75% after market close. The best performing stocks on Wednesday were American Express and Goldman Sachs. Investors will now turn their attention to Walmart which will release their earnings report before the market opens.

For Walmart, analysts predict the earnings per share to rise from $0.60 to $0.65 and for revenue to rise from $159 billion to $167 billion. The company has beat earnings expectations over the past 12 months due to investors looking to shop on a budget due to recent high inflation. On Wednesday, Walmart stocks rose 0.78% and a further 0.52% after market close. The rise and bullish momentum indicate investors believe the company will continue to perform well on their earnings reports. Walmart holds a weight of 1.12% and Cisco Systems 0.74%.

Dow Jones – Interest Rates and Upcoming Economic News.

After the lower inflation data for consumers and producers there is a 64% chance of the September rate cut being 25-basis points. According to many analysts the Federal Reserve will cut 0.75% by the end of 2024. However, some experts believe the Fed will cut a full 1.00%. This is also something which can be seen on the CME Group which indicates a 44% chance of a 1.00% cut by December.

Investors will now turn their attention to the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Ideally shareholders would like to see the data slightly stronger than expectations, but not strong enough to suggest no rate cuts are needed. The Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Index will also trigger volatility but to a lesser extent. The only concern for shareholders is a potential rise in tensions within the Middle East!

Currently the VIX trades with no major changes. As do Bond Yields, but a decline throughout the day would benefit the stock market.

Dow Jones – Technical Analysis!



Technical analysis indicates buyers are holding momentum. On the 2-Hour chart, price trades above the 75-Period EMA and the 100-Period EMA. The price also continues to trade above 70 on the RSI but is not indicating an overbought price. On the 5-Minute chart, the price continues to form bullish crossovers and trade above the VWAP. The price movement throughout as we approach the US session will depend largely on the global stock market performance and Walmart’s earnings report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th August 2024.

Markets corrected again; Stocks skyrocketed.



Markets corrected again amid the back and forth on the Fed outlook and uncertainties over soft and hard landings that have besieged the outlooks since the jobs report. Global stocks have largely recovered from last week’s downturn, which had traders worried that the Fed might not cut rates quickly enough to prevent a recession.

* Asian stocks surged as investors returned to riskier assets, driven by increasing optimism that the US economy will sidestep a recession.
* September’s Fed rate cut was knocked out by the better than expected retail sales & jobless claims data and inflation. They are now anticipating less than a 30-basis point cut next month, with a total reduction of 92 basis points projected for the remainder of 2024.
* The RBA’s governor indicated that the central bank is still some distance from easing monetary policy.
* RBNZ governor Adrian Orr raised the distinct prospect of cutting rates another 50 basis points by year-end. NZDUSD rose to 0.6020.

Asian & European Open:

* Japanese stocks climbed, benefiting from a weaker Yen, which enhances exporters’ profits. The Nikke is set to end the week on a high, surging 2.9% to 37,800.42.
* Treasuries extended their losses, and the Yen is on track for its steepest weekly decline since May.
* The VIX fell further, dropping -6.49% to 15.14. It is well below the intraday spike to 65 on August 5 and is the lowest since July 23, even before the jobs report.
* Wall Street surged 2.34%, with the S&P500 advancing 1.61%, while the Dow climbed 1.39%. The rebound in US stocks from the heavy selling suggests that trend-following quant funds may soon reenter the market, potentially providing further support to equities.
* Walmart’s solid earnings report added to signs that the consumer is by no means dead, corresponding with the better news on retail sales. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. saw gains as optimism around tech stocks overshadowed concerns about its earnings. JD.com Inc. surged the most since March after exceeding net profit expectations in its earnings report released late Thursday.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex firmed to 103.024 after fading from the spike to 103.227. It was as low as 102.530.
* The Yen dropped 1.3% hovered around the 149 mark. This currency depreciation might even entice some hedge funds back into the carry trade that unraveled two weeks ago.
* GBP strengthened as GDP data confirmed robust growth through the second quarter of the year, which weighed on Gilts and saw yields moving higher.
* The AUD strengthened as job gains beat expectations.
* USOil climbed 1.3% to $77.99 per barrel on the improved growth outlook.
* Gold rallied 0.34% to $2456.24 after slumping to $2432 on the data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th August 2024.

Market News – Asian Stocks gain but US in red, Dollar plumMets; Yen the biggest gainer so far.


September Fed rate cut all but a done deal, look ahead to Jackson Hole

* Dovish Fed bets have also boosted hopes of additional easing in Europe, and bonds are falling as markets look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is expected to provide new guidance on the direction of US monetary policy.
* The anticipation of lower borrowing costs is boosting investor confidence.
* The US Dollar crashed to its lowest in 5 months. Cooler heads have prevailed as the panicked fears of recession dissipated. The FOMC is widely seen on track for -25 bp rate cuts over the remaining three policy meetings this year.
* Goldman Sachs reduced the likelihood of a US recession within the next year from 25% to 20%, citing the recent retail sales and jobless claims data. If the upcoming August jobs report, due on September 6, shows positive results, “we would likely lower our recession probability further to 15%,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius noted in a report to clients on Saturday.

Asian & European Open:

* Asian stock markets traded largely higher overnight, however, European markets are narrowly mixed in early trade and US futures are in the red.
* The Hang Seng and tech stocks led the way overnight. The Nikkei underperformed and corrected -1.8%.
* The German 10-year rate is down -1.6 bp, the 10-year Gilt -2.3 bp and the US 10-year yield -1.3 bp.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has remained under pressure and hit a session low of 102.00, before picking up slightly.
* The Yen strengthened by 1% against the US Dollar, reaching 145.17 today. The yen’s rise is driven by overall USD weakness, anticipation of BOJ Governor Ueda’s parliamentary appearance on August 23, and Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Markets are looking for signals from Ueda on the future direction of the BOJ’s interest rate policy. Political uncertainty is also influencing expectations, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement that he will not seek re-election as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in September. Some investors are still betting on potential BOJ interest-rate hikes and may be buying Yen ahead of speeches by the US and Japanese central bank leaders later this week.
* USOil prices have also continued to struggle as demand concerns dominate. The USOIL is currently below $75 per barrel as traders tracked US-led efforts to secure a cease-fire in the 10-month old Middle East conflict, while the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating.
* Gold rallied to an all-time high over $2500 per ounce,on hopes the Fed is edging closer to cutting rates.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th August 2024.

Market News – Its all about market sentiment.



* Wall Street continued its run higher as the panicked trade from early in the month continues to recede while outlooks on the Fed remain dovish heading into Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday.
* Asian stocks mostly rose on Tuesday, driven by positive momentum from Wall Street as it neared record highs.
* Chinese property developer Kaisa announced a restructuring agreement with creditors to avoid legal challenges over its 2021 default. The deal includes issuing $5 billion in new bonds and $4.8 billion in convertible bonds. (Kaisa, once the largest offshore borrower after Evergrande, faces a winding-up petition in Hong Kong, though the case has been repeatedly delayed.)
* The RBA indicated that it will likely maintain interest rates at their 12-year high for an “extended period” to ensure inflation returns to target by next year.
* In Europe, growing risks to economic growth have strengthened the argument for a policy shift at the ECB’s meeting next month. Markets are also watching the EU CPI release due later today.

Asian & European Open:

* Expectations for lower rates helped boost the NASDAQ by 1.39%. The S&P500 climbed to its 8th consecutive gain and its best run since November. It is just the 2nd close over 5600 as it sets its sights on the record 5667 from July 16. The Dow rose 0.58% to 40,896 as 41,198 is back in view.
* The Nikkei surged 2.1% to 38,156.41, recovering from a previous 1.8% drop.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex sank to 101.60, the weakest since early January.
* The Yen fluctuated against the US dollar, trading at the 147.33, rebounding from the 145-146 area.
* USOil prices decline to largest drop in 2 weeks, i.e. $72.76, as the US said Israel accepted a cease-fire proposal in Gaza, potentially easing supply risks as concerns about the global demand outlook mount.
* Bitcoin climbed to $60,974 while Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st August 2024.

Market News – Sentiment stabilize; EU stocks higher after mixed Asian session.



* Safe Havens were boosted by rate cut expectations for the FOMC, as well as the ECB and BoC, and after a dovish cut by the Riksbank. Adding to the strength in the rally are the weaker USD, debt concerns (especially for the US), portfolio hedging, haven demand, along with buying from the PBoC and other central banks.
* Geopolitical risks remain a significant factor too, though they were tempered slightly late yesterday after news Israel had agreed to a cease-fire proposal.
* US bond yields dropped to their lowest since August 5, driven by fears of a recession after weak jobs data earlier in the month.

Asian & European Open:

* European stock markets are slightly higher in early trade, after a mixed close across Asia.
* Chinese tech companies listed in Hong Kong were under pressure and the Hang Seng underperformed with a -0.8% loss.
* Sentiment seemed to stabilize at the start of the European session, and US futures are marginally higher as markets wait for Jackson Hole and signals from major central banks that rates will go down next month.


Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex fell to its lowest level this year against euro as traders prepared for key US payroll data revisions & Fed Powell’s upcoming speech. EURUSD rallied to 1.1132.
* The Sterling and the Yen showed mixed performance against the USD, with traders eyeing Japan’s parliament session and BOJ Governor Ueda’s upcoming testimony. GBPUSD spiked to 1.3050 and USDJPY bottomed to 144.92.
* SMBC economist Ryota Abe expects the US Dollar to weaken to 138 Yen by next year, with the Fed’s rate-cut pace being a critical factor.
* The Aussie hovered near a 1-month high, while the Kiwi touched its highest level since July before slightly retreating.
* USOil was steady close to its $72 floor.
* Gold continued to trade at about $2,500 close to its all-time high, fueled by expectations of impending Fed rate cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd August 2024.

Market News – Eyes on Euro, Stock Markets in Green, But Cautioness Prevails Ahead of Fed & BoJ.



FOMC minutes showed that the Fed was on the verge of cutting rates at the July 31 meeting, and the report sets up a reduction in rates with the September 18 decision. Expectations were further reinforced by the BLS’s downward revisions to Nonfarm payrolls.

* Treasury yields tumbled on the payroll revision and were down further after the FOMC minutes, but closed off their lows in a bull flattening trade.
* Wall Street bounced back marginally, looking to start another win streak after the modest declines Tuesday prevented a ninth straight gain in the S&P500, which would have been the longest since 2004.
* European stock markets are slightly higher in early trade, after a largely stronger close across Asia. The Nikkei closed 0.7% higher, the Hang Seng bounced 1.2%, after yesterday’s correction. Gains in Europe are more modest, with DAX and FTSE 100 up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
* The NASDAQ rose 0.57%, with the SP500 up 0.42%, while the Dow was 0.13% higher.
* The VIX jumped 2.86% to 16.87.
* Eurozone Composite PMI unexpectedly bounced back in the preliminary reading for August. The Manufacturing PMI still declined to an 8-month low and Services index outperformed. Confidence levels have dropped to the lowest so far this year and are below the “series average.” So the improvement in the headline doesn’t necessarily signal a rebound in overall activity, and the numbers are unlikely to prevent the doves at the ECB from pushing for another rate cut in September.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has extended its declines, falling to 100.93. The buck has not closed with a 100 handle since April 2022.
* The Euro surged to a 1-year high against the US Dollar in August, driven by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts. The euro-dollar pair sees around $2.29 trillion in daily turnover, making it a key vehicle for betting against the US economy. Money managers have been buying euros daily for the past two weeks, anticipating a Fed interest-rate cutting cycle.
* However, the US rates staying higher than European rates could restore the Dollar’s appeal.
* USOil prices slipped -1.7% to $71.92 per barrel.
* Gold was fractionally lower at $2512.01 per ounce after rising to a new record high of $2513.99 on Tuesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd August 2024.

Market News – The Big Day!



* Profit taking was seen ahead of Chair Powell’s comments today, weighing on Treasuries and Wall Street as some of the aggressive Fed rate cuts bets were trimmed further.
* US economic data showed mixed results, with growth relying more on the service sector as manufacturing slows. A better than expected S&P Global services print, a bounce in new home sales, and cautious comments from several Fed officials from Jackson Hole were the catalysts for the selloff.
* The Yen rose after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at potential interest rate hikes, reaffirming the BOJ’s stance if economic data aligns with forecasts. This follows concerns after the BOJ’s July rate hike caused a global equity selloff. Japanese inflation data exceeded expectations, supporting the Yen as well.
* Focus on Powell’s Speech: Traders are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for clues on potential rate cuts. Some have been warning that the event risk is that Powell will be more cautious than markets are now expecting, which could weigh on the Euro and Sterling in particular.



Asia & European Sessions:

* Wall Street tumbled, with losses accelerating into the close. The NASDAQ finished with a -1.67% plunge, while the S&P500 was -0.89% lower, and the Dow was down -0.43%.
* Asian equities were mixed, with Chinese shares helping to erase earlier losses. Global stocks were volatile, with declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Australia, and the US.
* Alibaba’s Hong Kong listing upgrade was approved, which is expected to attract significant investment. However, Chinese tech stocks like NetEase, Baidu, and Bilibili fell due to weak earnings.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has extended its declines, falling to 100.93. The buck has not closed with a 100 handle since April 2022.
* EURUSD has inched down to 1.1130 after drifting to 1.1097, but is still near the highest level in a year. Sterling outperformed and Cable rallied to 1.3120 after strong PMI data. The USDJPY is trading at 145.27 (S1) after a broader correction in the Yen.
* USOil steadied between 72.58-72.94.
* Gold has inched down to $2470 per ounce and still holds below the $2500 level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th August 2024.

Market News – FED: “The time has come for policy to adjust”.



This year’s Jackson Hole central banker symposium provided the opportunity for Fed Chair Powell to set the policy course for the FOMC, looking to join the other core central banks already in rate cutting mode. The markets got a big boost after he confirmed the FOMC will begin lowering rates on September 18.

The question on size could be answered by upcoming jobs numbers.

* Europe & UK: The ECB is also likely to reduce rates again next month, while the BoE’s Bailey sounded a more cautious tone. Like the ECB, the BoE seems more likely to stick to meetings with updated projections and detailed analysis, which would mean the BoE will sit out the next meeting and move again in November.
* Japan: Governor Ueda signaled the BoJ remains on its normalization course, but a hike as soon as September 20 seems unlikely.

Asia & European Sessions:

* Asian stock markets have shown mixed performance so far today, with the Hang Seng rising more than 1%, while Japanese markets corrected as the Yen rallied.
* Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.1%, reaching 37,944.68. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1.0% to 17,786.31. Shanghai Composite index slightly declined by 0.1% to 2,852.34. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% to 8,076.10.
* European stock markets are mostly lower, with the DAX currently posting a loss of -0.2%. UK markets are closed for a holiday.
* The Dow climbed 1.1% to 41,175.08, surpassing the 41,000 mark for the first time since July.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex saw a session low of 100.53 after plunging on Friday. It is currently trading at 100.41.
* EUR and Sterling have benefited from dovish Fed bets and the correction in the Dollar. The EURUSD pulled back from 1.1200 and is currently at 1.1177. The GBPUSD broke key resistance at 1.31 and is retesting 1.3200 currently.
* The Yen outperformed, and rallied against most currencies.t is currently settled at 143.43.
* USOil spiked to $75.28. Safe-haven buying due to increasing tensions in the Middle East, alongside bets on the Fed, contributed to market movements. Oil prices rose 0.7% as the region prepared for further conflict following an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.
* Gold recovered to $2524.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th August 2024.

Market News – Stocks mixed; Big Tech pulled down; Oil unchanged amid supply concerns.



Asia & European Sessions:

* US: Some steam came out of Friday’s rally as Treasuries and Wall Street corrected from overbought conditions. The bond market had already priced in at least a -25 bp rate cut on September 18, though yields dropped further following Chair Powell’s confirmation. With little on the docket until Thursday’s claims data, the market gave back some of its gains. There was also a little concession building ahead of the start of the $183 bln in auctions.
* The S&P500 rose to 5651 in early action, but failed to test the record high of 5667 from July 16. The NASDAQ slumped -0.85% on profit taking ahead of Nvidia earnings Wednesday. The Dow was up 0.16%.
* Several technology companies tip the market because of their big values. Nvidia lost 2.2%, Microsoft fell 0.8%, Amazon dropped 0.9%, Meta Platforms slid 1.3% and Tesla lost 3.2%.
* China: Industrial profit data for China was robust, but mainland China bourses still struggled, while the Hang Seng managed slight gains.
* Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.3% at the open, DAX and FTSE 100 are currently up 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The UK is catching up after the extended holiday weekend.
* German data confirmed that GDP contracted -0.1% q/q in the second quarter and GfK consumer confidence data unexpectedly declined, which coupled with deteriorating business confidence flags recession risks.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex index is at 100.85.
* EURUSD and Cable are consolidating but remain at high levels at currently 1.116 and 1.319 respectively. Both flagged that monetary policy will have to remain restrictive for the time being. That won’t prevent additional rate cuts, but highlights that central banks will move cautiously.
* USOil closed with a 2.9% pop to $77.04 after news Libya was shutting supply added to the bullish impact of increasing tensions in the Middle East.
* Gold firmed to $2509 per ounce on geopolitical risks and rate cut prospects.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th August 2024.

Market News – European Stocks Higher After Another Range-Bound Session in Asia.



Asia & European Sessions:

* European stocks were poised for modest gains as investors awaited Nvidia Corp.’s earnings report for insights into the growth trajectory of AI-related stocks. Euro Stoxx 50 futures increased by 0.1%, suggesting a muted opening for European shares, while US stock futures remained steady during Asian trading.
* Asian equities fluctuated within narrow ranges due to weak corporate earnings in China.
* Hong Kong dropped as much as 1.6%, while mainland stocks fell to their lowest levels since early February. Shares of Nongfu Spring Co., a bottled water manufacturer, plummeted by up to 13% as in China sectors like materials, tech, construction, automotive, and others face significant downside risks.
* Nvidia is expected to report Q2 adjusted earnings of 65 cents per share on $28.74 billion in revenue, more than double what it earned in the same quarter last year, according to FactSet. Nvidia’s revenue has tripled annually over the past three quarters, driven primarily by the data center business. Demand for generative AI products, which can generate documents, create images, and serve as personal assistants, has significantly boosted sales of Nvidia’s specialized chips over the past year. However, Wall Street is keen on signs of any slowdown in AI demand.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The Yen extended its losses against the US Dollar, to 144.595 following comments from Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino. Himino stated that the BOJ would raise interest rates as long as inflation aligns with the bank’s outlook and emphasized the need for close monitoring of developments.
* Bitcoin fell below $60,000 as part of a broader cryptocurrency market decline, including a sharp drop in Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency.
USOil rem* ained steady after a previous session’s decline, ending a 3-day rally. USOIL is under $75. The API projected that nationwide inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels last week, which would mark the 8th decline in nine weeks if confirmed by official data later today. Crude oil has experienced volatility in recent sessions, with recent declines following a rally near the 200-DMA. Political risks in the Middle East and potential supply disruptions from Libya have supported recent gains, but a broadly bearish outlook has led major Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lower their price forecasts for next year.
* Gold retreated after a 3-day climb that brought it closer to its all-time high.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th August 2024.

Market News – Nvidia dropped after hours; Equities mixed; Dollar pared some losses.



Asia & European Sessions:

* Nvidia dropped about -7% in after hours trading in Frankfurt this morning, mirroring a fall in US after-hours trading which took Wall Street futures down with it. Though Nvidia’s guidance fell short of lofty expectations, the company’s revenue more than doubled to $30 billion in the fiscal second quarter, ending July 28. Additionally, Nvidia’s board approved $50 billion in new stock buybacks.
* Beats from Salesforce and CrowdStrike help contain losses. Nvidia reported solid results but the bar was so high that the data failed to top the most bullish estimates..
* The NASDAQ led the decline, dropping -1.77% before paring losses into the close to finish -1.12% lower. The S&P500 tumbled -1.1% before closing with a -0.6% loss. The Dow trimmed its -0.99% decline to -0.39%
* In Japan, a 2-year government bond auction attracted the highest bid-cover ratio since 2019, spurred by recent yield increases.
* In China, the downbeat earnings trend persisted. Shares of electric vehicle maker Li Auto Inc. plummeted by up to 15% after missing forecasts, while BYD Co. also declined despite posting a 33% profit increase. Contributing to the negative sentiment, UBS Group AG lowered its growth forecasts for China for this year and next, citing a more severe property market downturn than expected.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDindex has pared some of yesterday’s gains and is at 101.17.
* The New Zealand Dollar gained strength following a surge in the country’s business confidence to a decade-high.
* Oil prices steadied after a 2-day decline, with stock market losses balancing out a reduction in US inventories and supply disruptions in Libya.
* Gold traded just below its record high, poised for a monthly gain.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th August 2024.

Market Volatility, Stock Market and Upcoming US Elections.



US Elections have been and are always expected to be extremely volatile events worldwide. Elections, similar to other political or banking sector events, are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation.

As soon as Kamala Harris entered the Presidential race, replacing Joe Biden on the ticket, the stock markets began showing a noticeable preference for her. Market Watch reports  that based on current stock market trends, Harris has a 64% chance of winning the election, a significant shift from the previously erratic market behavior.

[img]https://images.mktw.net/im-83545286?width=700&size=1.4849187935034802&pixel_ratio=2[/img]

This shift in the stock market is a positive indicator, suggesting that investors are placing their confidence in the Democrats and their potential economic policies. While the impact on the election outcome might be minimal, the fact that a significant portion of these investors are also voters means that careful analysis of market trends could provide insights into the current political climate as the 2024 US Presidential Election approaches.

Historically, it has been noticed that during election years, market participants shift their investments into money market funds instead of the safety of stock and bond funds, as they wait out the heightened uncertainty.

But will 2024 be the same? We cannot quite know yet but it’s been a unique one so far as we have seen an extreme money flow into equity market and commodity market in comparison with past election years, due to geopolitical risk, US political uncertainties which added to the instability, AI mania which boosted global stock markets, and the recession concerns which initially returned but currently are considered to have been overblown, as were aggressive Fed rate cut bets.

Are stock market investors rallying behind Kamala Harris? If we consider Market Watch’s analysis, Harris is indeed receiving substantial support from stock market investors across the US. This is reflected in the increased investments and the positive performance of certain stocks following her entry into the race after Biden’s unexpected withdrawal.

Can the stock market serve as a reliable political barometer? The stock markets can offer insights into voter sentiment and have historically been a strong political predictor.

In periods of uncertainty, the equity markets’ volatility and volume tend to spike again since they are considered to be attractive and more stable assets. If we focus on the medium term though it is expected that if current conditions sustain, market volatility will extend beyond Election days with any potential outcome, i.e. a Harris win and Democrat majority in Congress, a Harris win but split Congress, or a Trump victory with split Congress.

Meanwhile, a chart from Wells Fargo Investment Institute, shows the USA500 implied Volatility index along with USA500 index performance prior and post the Election Day based on the elections since 1988 with the 2008 recession year excluded. This chart interestingly suggests that typically the USA500 tends to ease/consolidate a bit a month prior to the elections despite an extremely high volatility, while USA500 price continues its upwards move after the election day even though volatility declines significantly.

[img]https://images.mktw.net/im-247849?width=1260&size=1.6580310880829014[/img]

However, it’s crucial to remember that market trends don’t always align with election outcomes. For instance, during the 2016 election, the stock market favored Hillary Clinton, but the final results told a different story.

Historically, the markets have shown a tendency to respond more favorably to Democratic candidates rather than Republicans, due to various factors. It remains to be seen if the stock market’s predictions for the 2024 US election will prove accurate.

Currently, market trends suggest a positive response towards Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who is gradually gaining traction in the polls. However, as fear of a potential recession is still in the background, the US stock markets are in a state of uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd September 2024.

Is The Dow Jones Overpriced? The DJIA Declines On Monday!



*Markets expect US employment data to improve adding a further 160,000 employees to the country’s payroll.
*Analysts expect US Job vacancies to drop to their lowest level in 2024, but to remain at the 5-Year Average.
*According to the Chicago exchange, an interest rate cut on September 18th is certain. Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut.
*Strong gains on Friday evening saved the US Stock Market from witnessing another bearish close.

Dow Jones (USA30) – Recurring Pattern

On Friday, the stock market quickly fell at the opening of the US Session but thereafter the market quickly rose to close at a higher price. Investors should note that of the past 7 trading sessions, this has been a known pattern. Of the past 7 trading sessions the price has fallen at the open and then corrected on 5 occasions. A positive factor for the Dow Jones is the price is forming higher swing lows and is witnessing less bearish momentum over the past week.



Dow Jones Components

The Dow Jones’ components on Friday saw 5 stocks fall while 25 stocks rose in value. Therefore, 83% of the index rose in value confirming buy signals could have been relevant. Though, during today’s session investors should note that the US 10-Year T-Bond rose in value by 42 points. Currently, the VIX index is more or less unchanged, but as the US 10-Year T-Bond trades significantly higher, investors will need to be cautious of volatility. If the VIX increases in value and Bonds Yields remain significantly higher, the price of the Dow Jones may witness a horizontal trend. It will also be vital to again review the percentage of the components witnessing bullish and bearish price movements.

Earnings season is almost at a close, the only major company yet to release its earnings report is Broadcom. However, Broadcom stocks are not a component of the Dow Jones and the report will simply impact the market only through the broader market sentiment. Analysts will concentrate their attention on this week’s ISM PMI release, JOLTS Job Openings and the Employment data on Friday.

Ideally investors will want to see neither weak data which will trigger low consumer demand fears, nor positive data which will make rate cuts less likely. Ideally, investors would like to see the data read in line with expectations. Currently the market is pricing in 0.75% to 1.25% rate cuts in 2024. If the Fed indicates less than 0.75%, the stock market is likely to be overpriced.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

In terms of technical analysis, the Dow Jones has been the only index which has continuously held above the 75 and 100 Period Moving Averages. Meanwhile, the SNP500 and NASDAQ have been unable to maintain momentum. Higher demand is due to the Market’s lower risk appetite and investors increasing exposure away from the technology market. However, the price is now trading very close to its all-time highs and close to its overbought market on most oscillators. Therefore, investors will be looking for further price drivers to regain momentum.


Dow Jones 10-Minute Chart on September 2nd

According to Fibonacci retracement levels, if the price declines, a retracement could fall as far as $41,339.55. If global indices rise and at least 65-70% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rise, investors may deem a breakout of the $41,641.00 level as a signal to speculate a price increase.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd September 2024.

Gold Analysis: Will Gold Break Free from Its Current Price Range?



*Gold trades 16.00% higher in 2024 as economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut between 75 and 100-basis points.
*The price of Gold is at a clear trend line and rebounds at the opening of the European Trading Session.
*Economists advise that for Gold to continue to increase to $2,600 and above, the market would require the Federal Reserve to cut 1.00%.

Gold (XAUUSD) – Will Gold Rise To $2,600?

Gold has risen 16.00% so far in 2024, largely driven by the geopolitical tensions and fear of lower consumer demand, but primarily due to expectations of lower interest rates. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to adjust the Federal Fund Rate by 0.75%. However, volatility will increase if the Fed opts to adjust at a faster or slower rate.

According to economists, in order for Gold to increase up to $2,600-$2,700, the Federal Reserve will need to increase the size of the rate cuts. According to the CME Group, there is a 45% chance, the Fed will cut 1.00% by 2025. If this possibility increases throughout the week, the price of Gold is likely to decrease as the Dollar declines. In order for the Federal Reserve to become more dovish, the regulator would look for weaker employment data and lower inflation.

Throughout the day, the price of Gold will depend on the price movement of the Dollar as well as the ISM PMI release at 14:00 GMT. However, another key release will be tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings. Analysts expect the job vacancies are likely to fall from 8.18 million to 8.09 million, one of the lowest in the past 2-years. If both the PMI data and job vacancies read lower, Gold will potentially increase in value. This is due to markets expecting a higher rate cut and weakening demand. Therefore, Gold will gain higher demand as an alternative to the Dollar and its safe haven status.


XAU/USD 10-Minute Chart on September 3rd

On the 4-hour chart, investors can clearly see the price is forming a range between the $2,529 and $2,492 level. The asset has largely found support and resistance at these levels as the market believes the asset is trading at its intrinsic value. However, the upcoming employment and inflation data can potentially change the market pricing. As the price continues to attempt to break through the resistance level at $2,529, the resistance level is losing its psychological edge over buyers. This makes it easier to break through.

On the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. If the price rises above these levels, buy signals become more attractive. On the 10-Minute chart the asset has formed a bullish crossover and a higher high indicating bullish price movement. However, the price is overbought on the RSI. If the PMI data reads lower than expectations, the data will move hand in hand with the crossover signal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th September 2024.

Stocks Suffer Sharpest Drop Since August 5th, What’s Next?



*The stock market witnesses its worst session since August 5th. The NASDAQ drops more than 3.00% as 80% of its stocks decline.
*The VIX rises more than 5% indicating a low risk appetite as investors fear lower consumer demand and the unwinding of certain hedge positions.
*The price of the Japanese Yen increases in value for a second consecutive day.
*ISM PMI data improves but investors turn their attention to JOLTS Job Openings and NFP.

NASDAQ (USA100) – 80% of Stocks Decline But Will Investors Buy The Dip?

The NASDAQ is trading at its lowest price since August 13th after witnessing its worst trading day since August 5th. Throughout all 3 trading sessions the price of the index fell 3.40% and is now trading firmly below trend lines and neutral levels on Oscillators. The question now is whether the price is oversold and if investors are unwilling to trade at such high prices.



The decline was not solely related to the NASDAQ, but the whole US stock market as well as global stocks. The NIKKEI225 fell a further 1.50% today and the DAX is due to open 0.60% lower. Simultaneously the VIX is trading higher for a third consecutive day. These are known to be indications of lower sentiment towards stocks.

The decline came about due to the lower risk appetite, the unwinding of hedge positions which involved the Japanese Yen and fear of lower consumer demand. The index was also influenced by the higher PMI data from the ISM which indicated higher economic sentiment. As a result, a 50-basis point rate cut becomes less likely applying further pressure on the stock market. However, this will also depend on this week’s employment data and next week’s inflation rate.

All of the 12 most influential stocks fell in value and of the top 50 influential only 7 ended the day at a higher price. The question now is whether investors will now look to purchase the lower price. This will largely depend on today’s JOLTs Job Openings which analysts expect to read slightly above 8 million. Ideally investors will want to see higher job openings in order to give them confidence the consumer demand will not fall. According to economists, even with a slightly higher figure, the Federal Reserve is still likely to cut interest rates.

Since the opening of the European Cash Open, the VIX has slightly fallen and European stocks are attempting a rebound. This is also something traders will monitor because if the momentum continues it may indicate a different price movement, such as a correction. Nonetheless, this will still largely depend on today’s release.

USD/JPY – Technical Analysis

The Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing currency while the US Dollar is the worst performing currency. The USDJPY is also trading below the trend-line, 100-Period SMA and below the 50.00 level on the RSI. The exchange rate has also fallen below 144.904 which is a key level on the Fibonacci levels.

The Institute for Supply Management reported that in August, the US Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 46.8 to 47.2 points, but still signals a slowdown in the industry. This slowdown meets the Federal Reserve’s conditions for easing monetary policy. Many experts now expect the Fed to lower interest rates three times, by a total of 100 basis points, by the end of the year. If the day’s JOLTS Job Openings read lower than 8 million, the US Dollar can witness higher downward momentum.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th September 2024.

US Jobs Vacancies Fall to 3-Year Low Pressuring The US Dollar!



*US Job Vacancies drop to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index declines.
*The best performing currency of the week is the Japanese Yen. Investors are turning to the only Central Bank which is not going to cut rates in 2024.
*The possibility of a 50-basis point rate cut increases, but economists stick to their 0.25% predictions for now.
*Oil prices fall close to lowest levels of 2024. Shareholders expect lower oil prices to prompt a lower inflation rate over the next 2 months.

USDJPY – JOLTS Job Data Points To Potential Larger Rate Cuts!

The price of the US Dollar came under pressure from the latest US job vacancies figures which fell below expectations. US Job Vacancies dropped to their lowest level in more than 3 years. The US Dollar Index as a result fell 0.42% and continues to be the worst performing currency of the day this morning. The Japanese Yen is currently increasing 0.43% higher and is the day’s best performing currency. This ensures no conflict between the two currencies so far, but investors will need to ensure this trend continues while they trade.

The July JOLTS job openings data was released today, revealing a decrease from 8.18 million to 7.67 million, signaling continued weakening in the labor market and raising the chances of a significant rate cut. Additionally, the Fed’s Beige Book economic review will be published later in the day, providing insight into the current economic conditions across different regions of the US.

According to experts, the possibility of the Bank of Japan again increasing interest rates is growing but the timing is not yet certain. However, even without an interest rate hike, the Japanese Yen is likely to witness support as global banks cut rates. This includes the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank. During this morning’s Asian session, the Japanese Yen has risen in value against all currencies. Though, investors will monitor that this does not change as the European trading session starts.

USDJPY – Technical Analysis Update



Upcoming Events

The price action throughout the remainder of the week will depend largely on the US Dollar. Today’s ISM Services PMI, ADP Employment Change and tomorrow’s official employment data will significantly influence the US Dollar and the USDJPY. Thereafter the market will turn their attention towards comments from members of the FOMC and the US inflation data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th September 2024.

Market Update – How Aggressively Might the Fed Cut Interest Rates?



The August jobs data did not provide the clarity on the rate outlook that had been hoped and left the markets to their own devices. Concurrently, comments from Fed Governor Waller left the door open for an aggressive -50 bps cut after he said he favored front-loading policy action, but stressed only if appropriate.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European & US equity markets open in the green, following a recent selloff due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Wall Street plunged on Friday, as the NASDAQ collapsed -2.55%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -1.73% and 1.01%, respectively.
*Asian markets followed the global downturn, with stocks in Taiwan, Australia, and Japan experiencing declines. Nikkei dropped for a 5th consecutive day.
*Asia’s benchmark index fell to a 3-week low. Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to the 5-year low seen in February due to weak earnings and economic recovery. The CSI 300 Index has fallen over 13% since its peak in May, reflecting ineffective policy efforts to revive the economy. Market pessimism in China is fueled by deflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and a prolonged property slump.
*Economic experts suggest that unless there is a significant policy shift, bearish sentiment may persist.
*Japan: Q2 GDP was revised down to a 0.7% pace, bouncing from the -0.6% contraction in Q1. It ties Q2 2023 for the fastest pace of growth since the 1.3% rate in Q1 2023. The deflator was revised up to a 3.2% y/y rate from 3.0% y/y.
*BOJ: The data leave the door open for another BOJ hike down the road, though we suspect policymakers will be sidelined at the upcoming meeting on September 20 to further assess conditions.
*China CPI edged up to a 0.6% y/y rate in August. It is a seventh month in positive territory after four straight months of deflation (from October through January). Nevertheless, price weakness continues to reflect the slack in demand and the very sluggish growth pace in the economy. And even more serious, PPI plunged to -1.8% y/y in August from -0.8% y/y, the biggest drop since April. And producer prices have been in deflation since September 2022.

While a September Fed rate cut is expected, uncertainty remains about the scale and frequency of future cuts.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDindex slumped to 100.58 before bouncing to a 101.187 close.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*The EURUSD and Cable are lower, at currently 1.1059 and 1.31 respectively.
*Oil drifted to $66.67 before recovering slightly to $68.20. Oil marked its lowest close since 2021 after a deep weekly loss pushed futures near levels regarded as oversold, with the focus on weather risks (Storm in Mexico) and reports this week that may clarify the demand outlook.
*Gold tumbling between $2485-2500.
*Iron ore prices fell below $90 per ton for the first time since 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th September 2024.

Market Update – Markets prepare for US CPI & Harris-Trump high-stake debate.



Asia & European Sessions:

*Wall Street recovered slightly from Friday’s dip. Dip buying got the ball rolling and short covering has added to the bullish momentum.
*Expectations for a soft, rather than hard landing, with the FOMC expected to cut rates by only -25 bps rather than -50 bps have supported as well. The advent of the Treasury’s $119 bln in auctions, along with a heavy corporate calendar also weighed.
*Nvidia and Tesla have paced the strength in big tech. The Dow advanced 1.2%, with the S&P500 and NASDAQ climbing 1.16%. Strength was broadbased. Five of the 11 S&P 500 sectors posted gains of better than 1%, led by consumer discretionary and IT.
*Sights are on today’s presidential debate and then CPI Wednesday.
*European stock markets are narrowly mixed in early trade, with the FTSE 100 underperforming, after a drop in the ILO unemployment rate. The overall labor market report was not as clear-cut, but the data will add to the arguments against back to back cuts and another move from the BoE this month.
*German HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.0% y/y. The data will add to the arguments in favor of a cautious cut from the ECB on Thursday.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDindex found its footing and rose to 101.68 from an overnight low of 101.14.
*The USDJPY lifted to 143.21. The Yen corrected, which helped to limit the slide in the Nikkei.
*Oil returned to $67.60 after Monday’s gain, driven by the return of a risk-on tone to wider markets.
*Gold edged up 0.36% to $2506.38 ahead of US Inflation tomorrow.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th September 2024.

Market Update – Safe Havens in Demand; Eyes on CPI.



Investors remain cautious about the gloomy outlook for China’s economy & worry that the Fed has delayed easing monetary policy. Traders are anticipating at least 1 significant rate cut this year, ahead of the CPI report, which is expected to show modest inflation growth.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Asian equities dropped for a 3rd consecutive session, with Japan and Hong Kong leading the downturn.
*US stock futures slid overnight by 0.6%, as renewed fears of slowing growth in major economies coincided with oil prices stabilizing below $70 and global bond yields hitting a 2-year low.
*Harris-Trump’s debate over the state of the economy and US-China relations had an insignificant impact on the markets. Harris saw her odds of winning the election rise on PredictIt from 53% to 56% following the debate.
*BOJ policy member Junko Nakagawa hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes, boosting Yen to December’s highs. While many economists predict the BOJ will wait until later this year or early next year to raise rates, the next decision is scheduled for next week.
*The CHF is at decades highs against USD, supporting speculation for an aggressive interest rate cut on September 26. Markets expect a 25bps cut, while the likelihood of a 50 bps cut has been increasing.
*The UK economy unexpectedly stagnated in July. GDP has stagnated for two months now, suggesting that despite the robust survey numbers, Q3 GDP growth is likely to disappoint. With interest rates down and wage growth still robust, construction and consumption should get a boost, although this side of the budget there is still a lot of uncertainty that is likely to hold consumers and companies back. For the BoE it won’t be enough to prompt back to back cuts, but it will justify the controversial decision to lower rates last month.
*CPI preview: The August CPI report will be the highlight, just in case there are any surprises that could tip the policy outlook. We expect gains of 0.2% for both headline and core after 0.2% increases for both in July. As-expected results would see the y/y headline sliding to 2.6% from 2.9% in July. Also, the core y/y gain should hold steady at 3.2% in July. Such results should not deter the FOMC from cutting rates.

A higher inflation reading today could lead to increased volatility ,while a softer number might give the Fed more room to cut, but could also signal faster-than-expected economic slowdown.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The Yen surged to its strongest level against the US Dollar since December, recovering its yearly losses. It is currently at 141.40 after retesting the 140.696 level.
*The USDCHF drifted further to a 13 year bottom, with CHF and JPY buoyed by faltering carry trades funded through low-interest currencies and increased demand for safe-haven assets. EURCHF remains below its 2015 bottom.
*Bitcoin dipped to $56k again due to Trump’s support for the cryptocurrency sector.
*Oil extended the month’s downleg to 65.34, dropping by nearly 20% this quarter, as worries about slowing growth in the US and China dampen demand.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th September 2024.

Market Update – Eyes on ECB!



US inflation data supported bets for a rate cut from the Fed next week, but also argued for gradual moves.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Selling initially drove the moves on Wall Street and Treasuries as the pick up in the monthly US CPI core rate weighed on aggressive Fed rate cut bets, and basically confirmed a -25 bp reduction next week. However global equities turned around and dip buyers provided support with the major indexes bouncing off of support.
*European stock markets are broadly higher in catch up trade, after Wall Street turned optimistic yesterday and the tech rally extended through Asian hours. Japanese markets, which were hit by a rally in the yen earlier in the week, bounced back and the Nikkei closed 3.4% higher. DAX and FTSE100 are currently up 1.2% as markets wait for the ECB to deliver the widely expected 25 bp rate cut.
*Tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia drove Wall Street’s gains, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher.
*ECB Preview: Comments from officials have left little doubt that rates will be cut by 25 bp once again at tomorrow’s meeting. It is likely to be another “cautious cut”, however, that doesn’t commit to additional moves. Growth indicators may have come in lower than hoped, and headline inflation dropped sharply. Underlying inflation, though, remains high and that means Lagarde is likely to stick with a data-dependent approach. We expect further cuts, but for now only at meetings with updated staff projections. A 25 bp cut would leave the deposit rate at 3.50% and the main refinancing rate at 4.00%. However, the ECB announced earlier in the year that it intends to lower the spread between the deposit rate and the main refinancing rate to 15 bp from currently 25 bp. That will come into effect on September 18, together with the changes announced tomorrow. That will leave the main refinancing rate at 3.65%, the marginal lending rate at 3.90%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex is at 101.796 and USDJPY has lifted to 142.66 amid a wider correction in the Yen.
*Oil rebounded 2.19% to $67.80 per barrel due to Hurricane Francine affecting Gulf of Mexico production.
*Gold dipped -0.15% to $2512.89 per ounce after rising to a session high of $2528.98 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th September 2024.

Market Update – Gold reached new record high; USD plummets; Oil 2% higher.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Trading remained choppy as the markets continued to assess data and Fed rate cut risks amid uncertainties over the economy.
*US data points released on Thursday were in line with a 25 bps cut from the FOMC next week, with Chair Powell likely to again stress the path remains data dependent. The increase in unemployment claims and a slight rise in August’s producer price index left room for the Fed to consider more aggressive cuts. However, the components relevant to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure remained subdued.
*The ECB cut rates -25 bps as widely expected. While the general expectation is for another -25 bp easing to help sustain a soft landing, there is still an undercurrent for a -50 bp cut next week.
*A WSJ article noting that Fed policymakers are debating -25 bps versus -50 bps helped give Treasuries a boost late in the day after hotter than expected PPI weighed early on. A small rise in jobless claims also provided some support.
*Gold reached a record high, about 25% up this year, driven by the Fed’s moves towards monetary easing. Investors also scaled back expectations of another ECB rate cut next month, after the ECB lowered rates on Thursday. Additionally, central bank purchases, heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and growing interest from retail investors have fueled the metal’s rally.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex dropped to 100.64 and is weaker against its G10 peers, with the exception of CHF and CAD.
*Yen retested once again December’s highs, at 140.63 level.
Wall Street rallied after a mixed start, with the NASDAQ advancing another 1%, while the S&P500 was up 0.75%, and the Dow was 0.58% higher.
*Gold prices marked new record highs to $2570 per ounce as shorts cover.
*Crude oil prices are up 1.05% at $68.68 per barrel due to dollar weakness, risk -on tone and disruption in crude production. Hurricane Francine’s landfall in southern Louisiana on Wednesday led to the shutdown of offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and disrupted refinery operations. The overall bearish tone remains intact, though, and the IEA’s monthly report only added to fears that a slowdown in demand will lead to a supply overhang and continue to weigh on prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th September 2024.

Gold and Yen Surge as Safe Haven Demand Increases.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*Former US President Trump survives another assassination attempt.
*The Japanese Yen remains the best performing currency of the month adding 4.85%. Demand for safe Haven assets such as the Yen and Gold rise.
*Gold continues to increase as global banks downgrade China’s growth forecasts due to poor economic data. Gold rose to an all-time high on Monday.
*Economists advise the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% at this week’s meeting.

USDJPY – The Exchange Rate Declines For 5 Consecutive Days

The US Dollar index trades 0.24% lower and the Japanese Yen Index 0.47% higher during this morning’s Asian session. The exchange rate is currently trading at its lowest point since July 2023 and has fallen for 5 consecutive days. However, investors should also note that the exchange rate is known to see a change in volatility as the European session opens at 07:00 GMT.


USDJPY on a 5-Minute Chart Showing Latest Bearish Crossover.

The USDJPY is under pressure for 3 reasons; investors are pricing in a 0.25% rate cut for September, the Bank of Japan may hike again in 2024, and investors are taking advantage of the devalued Yen. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday evening and by the end of the year the Funds Rate will fall to 4.75%. Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed chairman’s comments on how the Fund Rate may end the year.

Investors cannot be certain of the intrinsic value of the exchange rate based on a Federal Fund Rate of 4.75%. Other factors will come into play including whether the Bank of Japan will decide to increase rates by another 0.15%. However, what can be certain is the previous support levels which can be seen at 140.090 and 129.470.

In anticipation of the Bank of Japan’s meeting this Friday, investors are closely watching statements from financial authorities for any hints about upcoming monetary policy actions. Last week, board member Mr Nakagawa said that current interest rates remain low, and there is still room to tighten policy if economic and inflation trends align with forecasts.

Board member Naoki Tamura suggests that the rate should be raised to at least 1.0%. However, economists have not backed up this forward guidance and advise this would be a step too far for the near-term future. It has been almost 30 years since the Bank of Japan held its interest rate at 1.00%.

Gold – Safe Haven Demand Surges As Global Banks Cut Interest Rates!

Gold is significantly rising in value as the Federal Reserve’s rate cut is imminent and as other global central banks continue to cut. The European Central Bank is the latest regulator to cut interest rates from 4.25% to 3.65%. On Wednesday, analysts expect the Fed to adjust rates to 5.25%. Demand for Gold is rising due to lower global interest rates, but also the decline in the US Dollar. The US Dollar index trades 0.24% lower and Gold would benefit from a weaker Dollar.

The easing of monetary policy is evident in bond yields, with borrowing costs reduced by more than 25 basis points from July to September. Following the release of this data, analysts have made substantial adjustments to their forecasts. As of today, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a rate change by this amount at 59.0%, down from 85.0% yesterday.

Another reason for the higher demand is the latest reports that China’s economy is not likely to reach previous growth expectations. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday revealed a slowdown in industrial production, retail sales, and real estate activity this month compared to July.


XAUUSD (Gold) on a 2-Hour Chart With Fibonacci Retracement Levels.

In terms of technical analysis, Gold is trading above the trend-line including the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. The asset is also trading higher than the Volume-weighted average price and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. For this reason, indications point towards buyer holding control and the likelihood of a continued upward trend to remain. Though investors should note that in a short period of time, Gold has risen more than 3.00% which could prompt investors to quickly cash in earned profits.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th September 2024.

US Market Awaits Fed: Will a 0.25% Cut Cause a Drop?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*European indices including the Euro Stoxx 50 and the DAX continue to trade higher.
*The European Central Bank’s latest cut continues to benefit European stocks.
*US Stocks “mixed” with the Dow Jones rising 0.55%, the SNP500 0.14% ending the day 0.47% lower.
*The Dow Jones was the best performing US index, largely driven upwards by the performance of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Visa stocks.

Dow Jones Leads, Outshining NASDAQ and S&P 500!

On Monday, 84% of the Dow Jones’ stocks rose in value with Intel, Cisco Systems and Travelers Cos being the best performing. The index also rose to its highest ever value, so far adding 10.36% this year. Why is the Dow Jones performing better than the NASDAQ and the SNP500?



The stock market in general is known to benefit from interest rate reductions which will take place tomorrow evening. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance of the Fed increasing 50 basis points, not 25. However, most economists believe the central bank will opt for 3 consecutive 25 basis point cuts for the rest of the year. For this reason, there is a risk of misjudging the Fed, the monetary policy and how to price the stock market. As a result, investors are turning to the Dow Jones which is exposed to fewer stocks, witnessing higher exposure to the banking sector and to defensive stocks such as Procter and Gamble. On Monday, Procter and Gamble rose 1.82%.

According to experts, if the Federal Reserve does adjust the Federal Fund Rate by 0.50%, all indices are likely to increase in value. Whereas, if the Fed cuts only 0.25%, investors will want to be exposed to a more balanced index such as the Dow Jones. Investors will want to be prepared and plan for volatility in both directions.

When monitoring the VIX and Bond Yields, certain signals are indicating some short-term weakness. The VIX is currently trading almost 1.00% higher and bond yields have added 0.005%. This does not necessarily indicate a decline but possibly some weakness before the upcoming interest rate decision. However, if the VIX declines and yields do not rise further, the Dow may again witness positive price movements.

Technical analysis currently signals that buyers are controlling the market with the Dow Jones trading above the trend-line, price sentiment line and above the VWAP. The 75-period EMA and 100-Period SMA have also crossed upwards on the 2-hour chart. The only concern for investors is that the price has risen for 4 consecutive days potentially triggering a more cautious view.

Lastly, the performance of the Dow Jones within the US session will depend on today’s Retail Sales release. The US Retail Sales is likely to decline 0.2% after rising 1.00% in the previous month. Analysts expect Core Retail Sales to read 0.2%. A higher Retail Sales figure is likely to support the stock market in the short-term.

DAX on the Rise: Can the Momentum Keep Going?

The German DAX has risen for 4 consecutive days as has the Dow Jones. However, the price has fallen as the EU Cash Open edges nearer (0.10%). The index is not trading at an all-time high but is trading at an area where the index has previously found resistance on two occasions.



The European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates more than what analysts were previously expecting supports the index. The monetary policy adjustment also stopped the downward trend seen so far this month. The question is now whether the DAX will continue to rise accordingly. According to economists, three factors will be necessary for continued growth; for both the ECB and Fed to continue cutting rates in 2024, positive EU data and positive earnings data.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th September 2024.

What Does Tonight’s Fed Rate Cut Mean For Gold and the Yen?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Pound remains slightly weaker on Wednesday.
*Gold retraces as traders increase the possibility of a 0.25% rate cut after yesterday’s Retail Sales.
*Gold positions break the previous annual record of 242.314K indicating the high demand. JP Morgan advises the largest risk to the global economy remains the tensions within the Middle-East and this can also impact Gold.
*US Retail Sales unexpectedly rose 0.1%, higher than the previous expectation of -0.2%.

XAUUSD – Gold Retraces As Economists Stick To Their 0.25% Rate Cut Prediction!

The price of Gold on Tuesday fell 0.50% moving back to the trend-line (75-Period EMA) and then retraced upwards overnight. However, the price is now actively declining as we approach the opening of the European Cash Open. Previously the price of Gold significantly rose due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates. However, the pricing changes depending on a 0.25% and 0.50% interest rate cut. According to experts, 0.25% could apply some short-term pressure on Gold unless the Fed also adds dovish comments for the upcoming months.

The reason why a 0.25% cut could potentially be negative is because investors have partially priced Gold based on a 0.50% cut, not 0.25%. Therefore, the price movement is largely dependent on tonight’s Federal Reserve rate decision and press conference. During the press conference, investors will be expecting guidance from the chairman, Mr Powell, regarding potential future rate cuts. According to Bloomberg, traders have significantly increased the likelihood of a 0.50% rate cut. However, Bloomberg surveyed 115 US economists, of which 104 advised the Fed would opt for 0.25%.

Leading trading platforms confirm the surge of new investors in gold. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, long positions in contracts have reached 246.214K, surpassing the previous annual record of 242.314K. Seller positions in this category remain low, totaling just 19.505K transactions. A similar trend is seen at the CME Group, where the average daily trading volume for gold contracts over the past week was 376.2K, far exceeding August’s average of 134.0K.



In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.

GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!

The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.



The Great British Pound Index trades 0.06% lower but is slightly improving since the release of the latest UK inflation date. The UK’s inflation remains at 2.2% as per previous expectations. The Bank of England’s rate decision and press conference will take place tomorrow. Analysts advise the BoE is likely to keep interest rates at 5.00% which is positive for the British Pound.

According to Bloomberg, if the Fed opts to cut interest rates by 0.50%, the Bank of Japan may choose not to increase interest rates again this year. Economists added that the Bank of Japan would prefer for the Yen to gradually decline back to 135.00. Therefore, a 0.50% rate cut could turn negative for the GBPJPY, however, the price movement would need to confirm this.

The GBPJPY is trading at the 55.00 level on the RSI, above the 75-Period EMA and 100-Period SMA. On the 5-Minute chart, the GBPJPY is also close to crossing above the 250-Period SMA. Therefore, most indicators are indicating upward price movement. Nonetheless, this will depend largely on the upcoming monetary policy developments.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th September 2024.

Bigger Interest Rate Cuts Spark Surge In Demand For The NASDAQ!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*Stocks rally after the Federal Reserve chooses to “go-large” with a 0.50% interest rate cut.
*The NASDAQ rises more than 2.50% and the Dow Jones 1.26%. The Dow Jones trades at an all-time high.
*UK Retail Sales rose significantly above expectations. The Great British Pound Index rises 0.35% and is the best performing index after the Japanese Yen.
*Gold attempts to break an all-time high as analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut a further 0.50% by the end of the year.

NASDAQ – Larger Interest Rate Cuts Prompt Higher Demand

The NASDAQ saw a clear bullish trend with the index rising for 5 consecutive hours as the US Session opened. The higher demand is a clear result of the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates 0.50% and not 0.25%.

The US Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point reduction in the interest rate, lowering it from 5.25–5.50% to 4.75–5.00%. In his remarks, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, highlighted that the target inflation rate of 2% had been achieved but suggested further decreases could follow. The updated economic forecast projects consumer price growth at 2.3% by the end of the year, down from the previous estimate of 2.6%. Furthermore, economic growth is now forecasted at 2%, compared to the 2.1% predicted in July.



In terms of technical analysis, the medium-term picture remains neutral. This is due to the RSI trading at the neutral level, and the price trading above the trend-line and the 100-Period SMA, but retracing downwards. Therefore, the overall scenario remains neutral. However, if the price rises above $2,576.00, buy signals are likely to strengthen.

GBPJPY – UK Inflation Holds at 2.2%, Yen Struggles to Gain Momentum Outside Asia!

The price of the GBPJPY trades considerably lower on Wednesday due to the higher value of the Japanese Yen. So far the Japanese Yen is the day’s best performing index and was trading 0.32% higher against the currency market. However, technical analysts have noted that the Yen’s performance becomes poorer within the European session. As the European session edges closer the Japanese Yen Index has fallen 0.06%. The price movement of the Japanese Yen will largely depend on the Fed’s rate decision due to recent correlations.



As a result, the Fed expects the key rate to drop to 4.50% this year and reach 3.40% by the end of 2025. Therefore, investors are changing their view as to the “intrinsic value” of the NASDAQ and the stock market in general. The NASDAQ on Thursday was the best performing index largely due to its exposure to growth stocks. Of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks, 85% rose in value on Thursday and none of the top ten influential stocks depreciated.

When monitoring other areas of the market, such as bond yields, indications still remain that buyers will control the NASDAQ. The US 10-Year Treasury Yields has fallen 0.024% during this morning’s asian session. Lower bond yields are known to be positive for the NASDAQ, and investors will continue monitoring the decline in yields throughout the day. The VIX index this morning is trading 0.15% higher; ideally buyers and shareholders would wish for the VIX to decline into a minus figure. Yesterday’s stronger employment data also continues to support the NASDAQ and stocks in general.

Technical analysis continues to indicate bullish price movement due to the upward momentum and volatility. However, as the NASDAQ is currently retracing, upward momentum will need to be regained in order for a buy signal to materialize. When attaching the Fibonnaci retracement levels onto the retracement, a potential buy signal can be seen at $19,920. However, investors are also concerned the price is trading at the resistance level from August 22nd.

GBPUSD – UK Retail Sales Significantly Higher Than Expectations!

The GBPUSD rose to its highest level since February 2022 after rising 0.38% during this morning’s Asian Session. The bullish price movement is related to both the US Dollar’s decline but also the bullish price movement the Pound has seen against the whole currency market. Currently, the GBP is the best performing currency of 2024 so far but also of the day. So far in 2024, the British Pound has risen 4.42%.



The Pound’s upward momentum is largely due to the Bank of England’s decision to keep its interest rate at 5.00%, whereas other global regulators had opted to cut interest rates. In addition to this, the UK’s Retail Sales figure for August read 1.0%, significantly higher than the previous expectations of 0.2%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd September 2024.

Market Update – Gold at record highs; Stocks climb amid Chinese stimulus bets.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Asian markets were mostly positive on Monday, buoyed by last week’s interest rate decisions from central banks in the US, Japan, China, and the UK.
*PBOC reduced its 14-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.85% from 1.95%, following a decision to keep key lending rates unchanged the previous week. China’s decision to hold an unusual economic briefing involving three top financial regulators and its cut to a key short-term policy rate heightened speculation about forthcoming stimulus efforts.
*Chinese stocks rose after the bank’s announcement.
*Japan’s stock markets were closed due to a public holiday.
*Attention remained on the BoJ which also stayed put (0.25%) & Ueda suggested that the central bank is cautious on further tightening amid ongoing uncertainty. This decision led to a drop in the Yen.
*Australia’s ASX 200 dipped 0.5% to 8,170.50 as the RBA prepared for a 2-day policy meeting. The NASDAQ and S&P500 stumbled on Friday to 17,948 and 5702. The Dow edged up 0.1%, reaching a new record high of 42,579.
*This week: key US economic data is expected, including reports on business activity, consumer spending, and a final revision of the economy’s growth during the spring.



Financial Markets Performance:

*Gold surged to a record high, reaching $2,631.13, as traders anticipated more rate cuts by the Fed following its recent 50 bps reduction. Bullion’s momentum was further supported by concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East, with investors turning to gold as a safe-haven asset. Despite this rally, gold may be overbought, with its RSI nearing 70, a signal of possible short-term overextension.
*Meanwhile, silver, palladium, and platinum posted losses.
*USOIL rose to $71.59 per barrel, while UKOIL gained 52 cents, reaching $75.01 per barrel. Currently they have both seen a pullback slightly into EU open.
*Yen slid from last week’s high of around 140 per US dollar to 144.36 yen by today.
*The USDIndex steadied to 100.50 area.
*The Euro inched higher to 1.1164 but currently is steady after Germany’s Social Democrats narrowly defeated the far-right Alternative for Germany party, maintaining control of the eastern state of Brandenburg. Meanwhile, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier signaled potential tax increases on large corporations and the wealthy to address the country’s growing budget deficit.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th September 2024.

Market Update – Risk-on Mood due to stimulus measures; Commodities climb.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*More new highs were set on Wall Street today as the Fed’s jumbo rate cut continues to reverberate. Fedspeakers indicated more cuts are in the future.
*European stocks are poised for a positive open, following a rally in Asian markets driven by China’s latest economic stimulus efforts aimed at stabilizing its stock market.
*China’s plan to inject 800 billion yuan ($114 billion) in liquidity support for its stock market alongside measures allowing brokerages to access central bank funds to buy equities, boosted investors’ confidence. These moves are part of a broader stimulus package that includes cuts to short-term interest rates and reduced borrowing costs on up to $5.3 trillion in mortgages.
*While the market responded positively to these policies, analysts warn that the rally could be short-lived, as underlying issues like deflation remain unresolved.
*The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% for the 7th consecutive meeting, while leaving future policy options open.
*Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5%, as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index marked its fourth consecutive daily gain. Hong Kong stocks surged over 4%.
*US Stock market remains positive, with the S&P rallying another 0.28% to 5719 while the Dow was up 0.15% to 42,125. This is the 40th new record this year on the former and the 30th for the latter. The NASDAQ rose 0.14% to 17,974.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was up slightly to 100.898, but failed to hold the test of 101.229.
*Gold managed another fresh peak too, rising 0.18% to $2640 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and expectations for further declines in interest rates.
USOil pr*ices recovered yesterday’s losses amid rising tensions in the Middle East after Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon.
*Μost Asian currencies strengthened against the US Dollar, with the Aussie rising against US dollar, i.e. AUDUSD falling to 0.6820, and the yield on 3-year bonds fluctuated.
*USDJPY retests 144.70 (top of falling triangle).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 03rd October 2024.

Dovish ECB Comments Send Euro Downward as Investors Eye US Jobs Data


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*US employment data indicates a resilient employment sector ahead of tomorrow’s NFP data.
*Latvia’s governor, Mr Kazaks, says that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate cuts at the October meeting
*Investors continue to predict a cautious 0.25% cut due to strong employment data.
*The US Dollar continues to be the week’s best performing currency due to a more hawkish approach and a lower risk appetite.

EURUSD – Investors Ditch the Euro For the US Dollar!

The market continues to drive the EURUSD lower due to expectations of the more competitive US market and monetary policy. In addition to this, investors are increasing exposure to the US Dollar due to a lower risk appetite while the Middle East conflict escalates. Yesterday’s Live Trading Session Click (Click Here)  pointed out the sell indications between 1.10735 and 1.10684, of which now the price is trading 0.45% lower.



However, as the price is now extremely close to the previous support levels from September 3rd and 11th, Investors should be cautious of buyers re-entering the market at these levels. The support levels can be seen between 1.10256 and 1.10050. In order to break these levels, investors may require further drivers such as tomorrow’s US Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

Analysts also expect the NFP Employment Change to add 144,000, very similar figures to the previous month. Though some economists now believe this data could beat expectations due to stronger employment data as NFP Friday approaches. Tomorrow’s employment data will trigger significantly higher volatility for the EURUSD.

The Institution For Supply Management (ISM) will publish their second PMI report of the week this afternoon. The Manufacturing PMI read lower than expectations, however, the market gave higher importance to the employment data. Yesterday’s ADP NFP Employment Change read 143,000 which is 19,000 more than the previous prediction. The higher ADP data was driven by leisure and entertainment (34K), construction (26K), and education and healthcare (24K). Today investors will turn their attention mainly to the US Services PMI as well as the Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos mentioned that short-term economic growth in the region could be slower than anticipated. However, he expects future recovery to gain momentum, driven by rising real household incomes and easing monetary policy. Latvia’s central bank governor, Martins Kazaks, added that officials have sufficient grounds to support further interest rate adjustments at the October meeting, citing slow wage growth, declining corporate profits, and weak economic recovery across much of Europe. The ECB’s dovish comments also continue to pressure the EURUSD.

Economists currently advise the European economy will not be able to see higher growth unless the ECB opts to cut interest rates to no more than 2%. For this reason, the Euro has been the worst performing currency of the past month only behind the Japanese Yen. Market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December.

The price movement of the exchange rate will largely be driven by the price movement of the US Dollar and US news. Therefore, the US Dollar Index will be key. If the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Unemployment Claims are lower than expectations, the EURUSD may be at a good level to retrace back upwards. This is due to the price being at a support level and having already fallen 1.65%. However, even with a retracement upwards, the EURUSD on the 2-Hour Chart remains below the trend-line and below the neutral level on most oscillators.

If the price remains below 1.10427, any short-term upward price movement will form nothing more than a retracement. As a result, medium-term buy signals potentially remain intact for the EURUSD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 04th October 2024.

Investors Increase Jobs Data Expectations As The Dollar Strengthens!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

*The US Dollar increases in value for a fourth consecutive day as the NFP release edges closer.
*US economic data continues to support a soft landing and gradual interest rate cuts.
*US ISM Services PMI beat expectations and rose to an 18-month high.
*Oil prices rise to a 30-day high as Israel confirms the IDF will retaliate against Iran’s latest strikes.

NZDUSD – Markets Expect The RBNZ To Cut, USD Depends On Jobs Data!

The NZDUSD continues to trade downwards for a third day and has done so while only forming one minor retracement. Traders now question how far the exchange rate can fall?



Price action is currently indicating that the market is attempting to drive the exchange rate lower as the Federal Reserve dials down its dovish tone. So far, the price potential looks on track to decline closer to the previous support levels. The closest support level can be seen at 0.61514 and then 0.61234. However, if it is able to do so will depend on the upcoming economic data, particularly this afternoon’s US employment data.

The market has raised their NFP Employment Change expectations to 150,000 for September. However, participants continue to predict no change for the Unemployment Rate. If the NFP rises above the expected figure while the Unemployment Rate remains the same or falls, the data would potentially support the USD further. In addition to this, the next Federal Reserve rate decision in November will most definitely be a 25-basis point cut. This would be key for the NZDUSD to continue its bearish trend back to the 0.61234 level.

On the other hand, investors also should note that the RBNZ will also confirm their rate decision on Wednesday 9th. Therefore, can the price action change as we approach the weekend and next week’s rate decision? This is something investors will need to monitor. Though, so far the worst performing currency of the week continues to be the New Zealand Dollar along with the Japanese Yen.

House prices in New Zealand fell for the seventh consecutive month, though at a slower rate, dropping by just 0.5% following a decrease in borrowing costs, according to economists at CoreLogic NZ. This trend highlights a reduction in purchasing power amid a slowing economy, as rising unemployment starts to impact household incomes. The outlook could shift if monetary authorities maintain their dovish approach at their upcoming meeting on October 9th. Notably, this stance has already helped bring the average two-year mortgage rate below 6.0%.

If the above data does prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates, the NZD could witness stronger pressure. The Official Cash Rate is currently at 5.25% and analysts expect the Central Bank to cut a further 0.50% to 4.75%.



When evaluating the price movement on the two hour timeframe, the NZDUSD is finding support at the same price but the resistance is not yet clear. This also indicates that sellers remain considerably active. The support level can be seen at 0.62066 and the price has crossed downwards which indicates a sell signal. Though some traders may wish for the support level to be broken before speculating downward price movement.

Furthermore, on the 5-Minute Chart the NZDUSD trades below the 200-bar SMA and on the 2-Hour Chart below the 75-bar EMA. This indicates the trend could potentially continue but traders will need to be cautious about volatility and timing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 07th October 2024.

Oil bets most Bullish in 2 Years, Stocks pared some gains.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The September NFP report was a blowout by almost every measure. It quickly knocked out lingering fears of a recession this year or early next, but also knocked out expectations for another jumbo -50 bp rate cut this year. So, what’s the market signaling right now? ‘Goldilocks’ scenario?

Asia & European Sessions:

*Equity markets have moved broadly higher across Asia, and European markets are also finding buyers in early trade. Recent US data have boosted growth optimism, and Chinese officials seem more committed to growth boosting stimulus measures.
*Japanese stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Nikkei rising by 2.05%, driven by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic, and Power sectors.
*European equities continue to benefit from a positive US jobs report. The DAX and FTSE 100 have already started to pare opening gains and the DAX is down -0.1%, while the FTSE 100 up a mere 0.04%.
*Data:German manufacturing orders plunged -3.8% m/m in August & U.K. house prices rose 0.3% m/m in September, according to the Halifax index. German data added to signs that the German economy will contract again this year.
*This Week: The inflation data are in view and will have a little more importance as the jobs report has extinguished fears of a recession and boosted the potential for a pick up in price pressures ahead. We expect gains of 0.1% and 0.2% for headline and core CPI for September (Thursday). Increases of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for September PPI (Friday). Along with the data, there is a host of Fedspeakers through the week and the FOMC minutes (Wednesday). Supply is also on tap with the Treasury selling $119 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities.
*Earnings season looms: JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report on Friday, with PepsiCo in the spotlight tomorrow and Delta Air Lines on Thursday.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex traded within Friday’s range so far today and is at 102.32.
*The USDJPY surged to test 149.00 immediately after the data before drifting down to 148.80. Still, this is the strongest since July and early August were the pair hit a multidecade peak at 161.69 on July 3. Currebntly is at 148.13
*According to Bloomberg, Oil futures posted their largest gain in more than a year last week. USOILhas lifted to $74.63 per barrel as markets watch developments in the Middle East. Gold meanwhile is at USD 2649.19 per ounce.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 08th October 2024.

Stock markets remain under pressure; bonds find buyers.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*The markets were weaker Monday as players continued to adjust to Friday’s strong September data and price out aggressive rate cut expectations. In fact Fed funds futures have not only taken out risks for -50 bps next month, but now reflect chances for no action at all.
*Wall Street was in the red all session and the selloff extended into the close, in part given the pop in rates.
*Asian markets mostly corrected, with the Hang Seng leading the way and plunging -7.1% as mainland China bourses returned from a week-long holiday. The CSI 300 rose 5.8% in catch up trade, but failed to match the rally seen elsewhere over the past week.
*Investors were disappointed by the briefing from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission, which did not present any additional stimulus measures. Instead, a CNY 100 billion investment plan scheduled for next year will be brought forward. China also announced a plan to issue special purpose bonds designed to stimulate local government growth.
*According to FT: ”Hong Kong equities were on track for their worst single-day performance since the global financial crisis on Tuesday, even as stocks in mainland China rose on their first day of trading after an extended break.”
*RBA minutes suggested that the bank will keep interest rates at their 12-year high until inflation shows consistent signs of nearing its target. Minutes also reveal that the board considered both tightening and easing monetary policy, depending on future economic conditions. For now, they have decided to maintain the rate at 4.35%, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex closed at 102.493 after hitting a high of 102.620, the best since August 15.
*USOil rallied 3.9% to $77.87 per barrel prior to retreating to $75.44.
*Gold holds $2620 floor for a 3rd week in a row.
*Treasury yields hit their highest levels since the summer. The NASDAQ dropped -1.18%, while the S&P500 slumped -0.96%, with the Dow off -0.94%.
*Nikkei lost 1.2% to 38,861.09.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 09th October 2024.

Mag 7 surged, Oil dipped as China weighed on the demand outlook.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It is a real mix in the markets amid a confluence of factors including positioning, Fed policy outlooks, growth and inflation outlooks, election uncertainties, and stimulus (or lack of) from China.

Asia & European Sessions:

*Wall Street climbed amid a surge in the Mag 7 stocks, paced by Nvidia (+4%). Stocks are recovering in general after the retreat to begin the month as unwinding of big rate cut bets and geopolitical angst weighed. Investor optimism has gotten a boost from signs of a solid labor market and economy, as well as from the stimulus from China.
*Goldman Sachs raised its outlook on the S&P500 to 6,000. The NASDAQ ended with a 1.45% advance, while the S&P500 was 0.97% higher, and the Dow was up 0.30%. The VIX fell -5.3% to 21.43.
*The US Justice Department announced on Tuesday that it may request a court order compelling Alphabet’s Google to sell off parts of its business, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system, which authorities argue are key tools in maintaining its illegal monopoly in the online search market (handles 90% of internet searches in the US, had established an unlawful monopoly).
*Nvidia surged 4% posting its 5th consecutive day of gains. Nvidia shares have risen nearly 14% in the past week and are up 190% over the past year. Several major investment firms, including KeyBanc, Citi, and Bernstein, reaffirmed their positive ratings on the stock. KeyBanc analysts also increased their 2025 sales forecast for Nvidia to $130.6 billion, driven by strong demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, which are expected to contribute $7 billion to fourth-quarter revenue. Wedbush analysts highlighted that the recent $6.6 billion funding round for OpenAI could spur further investment in AI startups, boosting Nvidia’s AI chip demand well into 2025.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was little changed at 102.50.
*USOil slid -4.17% to $72.26 per barrel following the climb to a session peak of $78.46 Monday, in part as China failed to add to its stimulus binge. Oil is facing a tug-of-war between fundamentals indicating a surplus in 2025 and geopolitical tensions.
*Gold broke below the key $2620 per ounce from the record $2672.38 from late September amid expectations for a benign CPI report ahead along with the firmer dollar. Risk aversion has been keeping demand for the precious metal underpinned, even against the background of a pickup in yields and a stronger dollar. OTC sales have also helped to boost prices, while central bank demand has eased somewhat with the rise in prices. Recent data showed that China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold for its reserves for a fifth consecutive month in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 10th October 2024.

Stocks mixed after a largely higher close, Disagreement in Fed; Eyes on US Inflation.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia & European Sessions:

*Treasuries sold off on the session with few buyers willing to step in to backstop the market ahead of CPI. Fading rate cut bets continued to weigh.
*FOMC minutes reflected a tough choice on the September 18 rate cut. There was considerable disagreement over the size of the move. A “substantial majority” favored the aggressive -50 bp action. “Some” preferred a quarter-point reduction although a “few” could have supported the smaller move. All, however, supported lowering rates at last month’s meeting as Governor Bowman dissented in favor of -25 bps.
*Wall Street caught a bid, helped by expectations for a tame CPI Thursday, with the Dow and S&P500 rallying to fresh record highs. The Dow climbed 1.03% to 42,512 and the S&P500 was up 0.7% to 5792. These are the 35th and the 44th record peaks of the year, respectively. The NASDAQ advanced 0.6%.
*Asia Session: Chinese stocks surged following the announcement of stimulus measures, as investors shifted their attention to upcoming data. Chinese investors will be looking ahead to the finance ministry press conference on Saturday for insights into fiscal stimulus plans.
*Japanese stocks present the highest weekly inflows in 6 months from foreign investors as the Yen weakened following dovish comments from Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
*US CPI preview: CPI is expected to post modest gains in September of 0.1% overall and 0.2% excluding food and energy. As-expected September figures would result in the y/y headline slowing to 2.3% from 2.5% in August, and well below the 40-year high of 9.1% from June 2022. Over the rest of the year the y/y gauges will be restrained by hard comparisons that could see the potential for a slower pace of rate cuts, especially if the economy and labor market remain solid.



Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex had a solid day, firming for a 6th straight session to 102.92, the highest since mid-August.
*Fading rate hike bets on the BoJ and diminishing rate cut hopes from the Fed saw USDJPY rally to 149.35, the highest since August 1.
*USOil rose after two days of decline, with UKOil trading close to $77 a barrel. The US crude stockpiles expanded the most since April, while the market remains tense over Israel’s potential retaliatory actions against Iran, as Iran has threatened to unleash thousands of missiles if necessary. President Joe Biden has advised against targeting Iranian oil infrastructure and spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday for the first time in over a month.
*Gold extended decline to $2605.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th October 2024.

Treasuries close mixed, Wall Street lower, US Dollar steady after data – Eyes on PPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The hotter CPI and cooler jobless claims made for mixed action in the markets. There was also some marginal impact from the 30-year auction and Fedspeak.

Treasuries were bifurcated in a curve steepening trade with the front end outperforming. The jump in claims, even if due in part to weather, strikes and other factors, supported expectations for additional rate cuts ahead, though of the -25 bp variety. The 2-year yield closed -5.6 bps lower at 3.966%. Dip buyers from the 4% rate also underpinned. Meanwhile, the long end was heavy on the hotter CPI and with the weight of supply. The 10-year was fractionally lower at 4.067%, but had spiked to 4.115% on the pop in inflation. The curve closed at 10.4 bps from 4 bps Wednesday.

Wall Street finished in the red after the Dow and S&P500 hit fresh records previously. The indexes were well off their lows at the end of the day. The NASDAQ dipped -0.05%, while the S&P500 was -0.21% lower and the Dow was down -0.14%.

The USDIndex finished little changed at 102.70 after jumping to a session high of 103.178 on the CPI then slipping to the day’s low of 102.720 on the claims numbers.

Oil climbed 3.26% to $75.63 per barrel and Gold rose 0.84% to $2629.51 per ounce.

Implied Fed funds futures continue to price in -25 bp cuts ahead, with some chance for no action rather than another jumbo -50 bps. Indeed, the latter has been priced out. This view was supported by the FOMC minutes yesterday that showed a big debate and some push back over the decision to lower rates by -50 bps on September 18. We continue to expect two quarter point reductions over the rest of this year.

In spite of being data dependent, we highly doubt the FOMC will skip November as they kick off their normalization process, especially as officials will be loath to do a start-stop so soon. And Chair Powell and others have told us to monitor the dot plot reflecting -25 bps in November and December as the base case.

Looking Ahead:

The hotter CPI puts attention on PPI and the inflation components of the consumer sentiment report due out Friday. Respective gains of 0.1% and 0.2% are projected for headline and core producer prices in September after increases of 0.2% and 0.3% in August. Results in line with the estimates would see the headline pace dip to a 1.6% y/y rate from 1.7% y/y previously, while the core rate should rise to 2.6% y/y from 2.4% y/y.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.