Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

Date : 9th May 2022.

Market Update – May 9 – USD dominance rips through every market on FED.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Monday Markets Blues

Can the cause sometimes take place after the effect? This is what looks to be the case this week. The USD surged to 2001 and has been bought and fixed income sold on ideas that the Fed had taken a hawkish turn, with investors searching for safety. The hikes will be front-loaded with the next 50 bp hikes discounted for the next two meetings (June and July) and a strong leaning for the same in September (~66%). Yields 10-year is up 1.0 bp at 3.14%. Stock markets are broadly lower, with Japanese markets underperforming and the Nikkei down -2.5%. Tighter Covid lockdowns in Beijing and Shanghai raised pressure on its economy, while China reported faster-than-expected growth in exports for April, while imports were flat.

Meanwhile in the market, speculation that President Putin might declare war on Ukraine in order to call up reserves during his speech at “Victory Day” celebrations could further hurt market sentiment.

The week ahead is important because it may show the first signs that peak inflation is at hand.

* USDIndex above 104.10.
* Equities – Nikkei down -2.5%. The ASX closed with a loss of -1.2%, the CSI is currently down -1.4%, while Hong Kong was closed today. USA500 led the way with a drop of 1.1%, while USA100 shed 1.0%.
* Yields 10-year is up 1.0 bp at 3.14%, Australia’s long yield also continued to climb and the German 10-year rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.13% this morning.
* Oil back to 109, after EU and G7 mull Russian oil imports while Saudi Arabia cut prices for buyers in Asia as China’s lockdowns weigh on demand in the region.
* Gold drifted back to 1869 as it looks less attractive from the safety of USD, while elevated yields further weighed on prices.
* Bitcoin hammered! Gapped down to33,228. The start of a sharp technical fall ?
* FX markets – EURUSD is just over the 1.05 mark, AUD and NZD also struggled against the largely stronger USD. USDJPY climbed above the 131 mark and Cable is at a near 2-year low at currently 1.2259.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-2.17%) drifted to S1 at 108.15 in the EU open. MAs & Stochastics bearishly crossed, and RSI is at 41 sloping lower. H1 ATR 0.91, Daily ATR 4.43.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th December 2023.

Market Recap: Focal BoJ ahead & the very last key US data



Markets are starting to wind down for the year. The four major central bank, the FOMC, ECB, BoE, and SNB all left policy rates unchanged, and most dialed back their hawkish biases. But while officials tried to jawbone and push back that early rate cuts are not on the table, the markets quickly equated the steady stance and shift in bias to pricing in rate cuts sooner than later. Indeed the markets ran with expectations for easing as soon as the first half of the year, if not March for the FOMC.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*FED: Fed’s Bostic sees two 25 bp cuts in 2024, but said it’s not an “imminent thing,” in a Reuters interview. New York Fed President Williams said its too early to begin thinking about cuts. Still, U.S. futures are already finding buyers again after a mixed close on Wall Street Friday.
*Japan: The BoJ is the focal point this week as it’s the last major bank to meet. Risks for no action have picked up as data have failed to give Governor Ueda the confidence needed to exit negative rates or YCC at this point.
*China’s PBOC resumes 14-day cash injections. The move likely designed to smooth liquidity conditions over the year-end. Borrowing costs were held unchanged at 1.8% and 1.95% respectively.



Market Trends:

*Treasury yields slightly higher however the 2-year still closed the week with 28 bp drop, marking the lowest closing since mid-May. The 10-year notes stood at 3.91%.
*Asian stock markets declined, and European futures are also in the red, after Fed comments on Friday tried to push back against excessive rate cut speculation.
*Stocks: The JPN225 slumped 0.7% on weakness in Yen. The US500 futures inched up 0.3%, while US100 added 0.2%, EU50 futures slipped 0.3% and UK100 at 0.1%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex at 102.00 after drifting to 101.43.
*EURUSD corrected to 1.0920 after a solid weekly gain If Eurozone activity fails to stabilize, Lagarde will be under pressure to change her tune and prepare for rate cuts earlier rather than later.
*GBPUSD moves sideways today and is at 1.2685, while USDJPY corrected again and is trading at 142.55 (38.2% Fib from 2023 upleg).
*Gold turned above $2000 as drop in the US dollar, yields and the Fed’s dovish pivot have helped to boost demand for the precious metal.
*Oil steadied above $72 after 5-month low last week amid worries supply will continue to outstrip demand. The weaker USD and dovish Fed comments helped to boost sentiment. The IEA said in its monthly report that it expects global oil consumption to rise by 1.1 million barrels a day in 2024, which means it has revised its demand forecast higher. That added further support and helped oil prices to at least stabilize over the second half of this week. Lower exports from Russia and attacks by the Houthis on ships in the Red Sea offered some support as well.
*Bitcoin holds above 40K for 11 day’s in a row, with increasing bullish bias.
*Key Mover: Goldman has raised year-end 2024 S&P 500 index target from 4700 to 5100, representing 8% upside from the current level. Decelerating inflation and Fed easing will keep real yields low and support a P/E multiple >19x.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd January 2024.

Market Recap: Stocks, Bonds open 2024 in the red!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*Data in the US included stronger than expected construction spending and weaker than forecast S&P Global manufacturing PMI.
*Fed funds futures have slipped to kick off 2024 as some of the aggressive rate cut bets are trimmed. However, the market is still pricing in close to 6 quarter point cuts. No action is expected for the first FOMC meeting on January 31.



Market Trends:

*Treasuries and Wall Street opened 2024 in the red and it basically went downhill from there. Treasury yields climbed 5- to 8- bps, led by the front end.
*A heavy corporate calendar exacerbated the losses from spillover from losses in European bonds, profit taking on the late 2023 rally, and from trimming of Fed rate cut bets.
*Stocks: The US100 dropped -1.63% paring some losses as the indexes finished off their lows. The US500 was -0.57% in the red, while the US30 was fractionally higher.
*Moderna shares surged 15.5% after investment bank Oppenheimer upgraded its stock.
*Apple lost 3.6%, its worst day in 5 months after Barclays downgraded its shares, Nvidia and Meta Platforms both fell more than 2%. Lack of new features and Iphone upgrades affected Apple stocks.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndexretested 102. The buck is on course for a 3rd straight daily rise, with technical factors as well as risk aversion likely to add support.
*EURUSD has dropped sharply to 1.0937 and GBPUSD dropped to 1.2610. USDJPY nudged up to 142.43 in thin trade, as Japanese markets remain closed.
*Gold declined to $2058 from the $2062.98 close on December 29. Global risks and the weaker US Dollar supported gold prices into year-end and an all-time closing high of $2077.49 on December 27.
*Bitcoin extended above 45K supported by statements that Blackrock & JPMorgan anticipate an imminent spot Bitcoin ETF approval and Goldman Sachs issuing huge 2024 Crypto Prediction.
*Today: Germany unemployment, US FOMC minutes, ISM Manufacturing and US Job openings.
*Key Mover: Oil prices slumped to $70.30 after an intraday peak of $73.64 amid concerns over events on the Red Sea. The escalating tensions in the Middle East are fueling concern that supply may be disrupted.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th January 2024.

Market Recap:Sentiment stable for now.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The Fed’s minutes to the December 12-13 meeting showed some pushback against imminent easing, while still acknowledging the rate cuts penciled in with the dots. The report showed “all” participants said clear progress had been made toward the inflation goal. Rates had likely peaked.
*“Several” thought the policy rate could remain restrictive for some time and peak rates could last longer than expected. Fed’s Barkin said there is still potential for additional rate hikes.
*China services index posted fastest expansion in 5 months amid optimism. Chinese wages in major cities declined by the most on record.
*Japanese manufacturing activity shrank by the most in 10 months in December, as demand ebbed in Asia’s largest advanced economy.



Market Trends:

*Wall Street extended its 2024 declines with weakness in tech shares weighing. The US100 (NASDAQ) slumped -1.18%, dropping for a 4th straight session, with the US500 (S&P500) falling -0.80%, while the US30 (DOW) was off -0.76%.
*JPN225 (Nikkei) dropped the most in two weeks, after the Fed minutes, also due to the powerful earthquake in the northwest on New Year’s Day and the runway collision between turboprop aircraft and Japan Airlines jet, which dragged down some companies.
*ASX fell 0.53% to trade near 7,495. Hopes that the RBA will no longer be raising rates have been partly driven by the Fed’s dovish shift.
*Chinese stocks remained the biggest drag in Asia following the jobs report – CSI 300 down by 0.9% after having slid as much as 1.6%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex rallied from a session low of 102.07 to a peak of 102.40 before dipping to 102. Markets reassessed their expectations of the scale of rate cuts by the Fed this year.
*USDJPY regained ground up to 143.89 as the Japan market reopened.
*Gold slid to $2030 per ounce, in part hurt by the FOMC minutes, with the firmer US Dollar weighing too.
*Bitcoin steadied above 42500 after diving to 40K territory as $400M was liquidated in 2 hours, as Matrixport rebuffed optimistic reports!
*Key Mover: Crude oil perked up and climbed 3.65% to $72.95 per barrel as a shutdown at a Libyan oil field added to the concerns over Mid East tensions and supply. Currently traded above $73. Libya’s major Sharara oilfield, with a capacity of 300,000 bpd, completely shuts down due to protests.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th January 2024.

Market Recap: NFP day!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The focus now shifts to the jobs report. Recent data, including jobless claims and the employment components of the ISMs, continue to reflect a decent labor market even as conditions cool. We expect a 140k increase in nonfarm payrolls following gains of 199k in November, 150k in October, and 262k in September.
*Yields remain elevated and near session highs after firmer than expected employment data. The claims and ADP numbers added to the losses along with the rethink of Fed easing bets and spillover from European bonds after a stronger than expected inflation report.
*A heavy corporate issuance calendar exacerbated the selloff too.



Market Trends:

*Treasuries continued to stumble in the new year. A rethink of aggressive rate hike bets, better than expected data, profit taking, and supply have all conspired to cheapen yields across the board in the first week of 2024 trading.
*Wall Street finished mixed with the US100 falling -0.56%. The US500 was -0.34% lower, posting a 4th straight decline. The US30 inched up 0.03%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was choppy but ended marginally lower at 102.41, though inside the 102.15 to 102.52 range. It has held over 102 for a 3rd consecutive session.
*USDJPY rallied above 145. Yen has weakened amid speculation that the BOJ might go slowly on changing its lax policy stance as it assesses the impact of Monday’s major earthquake in central Japan.
*USOIL prices have increased 1.13% to $73.52 per barrel.
*Gold is fractionally lower at $2041 per ounce.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th January 2024.

Bond Yields Rise Triggering Fear of Further Stock Weakness.



The US Non-Farm Payroll figures for December rose from 199,000 to 216,000 and beat expectations of 168,000. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly remained low at 3.7% instead of rising to 3.8%. However, the real shock came from the Average Hourly Earnings rising for a second consecutive month. So, how did the trading markets react and how are they reacting this morning?

XAUUSD – Technical Analysis Points to Potential Sell Signals

The price of Gold along with other Dollar-correlated assets at first benefited from the stronger than expected employment data. The price of Gold rose 1.31% and also formed a 0.34% bullish price gap. However, the asset struggled at the previous price range and quickly gave up gains. This morning the price of Gold is declining 0.70% which is considerably high for the Asian session and continues to maintain a sell signal on the 2-Hour Chart. The price is trading below the 75-bar average price and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Index. In addition to this, on the 5-Minute Chart the price is also forming a bearish crossover. All the above indicate a potential downward price movement and are likely to strengthen if the price declines below $2,029.00.




The US Dollar Index this during this morning’s Asian session is trading at the day’s open price, however, volatility is likely to strongly influence Gold. However, US Bond Yields are considerably higher this morning which potentially could support the Dollar throughout the day. If the Dollar Index and Bond Yields rise, the price of Gold has a higher possibility of witnessing bearish price movement.

USA100 – Bond Yields Rise Ahead of US CPI

*Treasuries continued to stumble in the new year. A rethink of aggressive rate hike bets, better than expected data, profit taking, and supply have all conspired to cheapen yields across the board in the first week of 2024 trading.
*Wall Street finished mixed with the US100 falling -0.56%. The US500 was -0.34% lower, posting a 4th straight decline. The US30 inched up 0.03%.

Financial Markets Performance:

The USA100 rose by 1.20% after the release of the US employment data and bullish volatility rose with strong momentum. According to order flow analysts, the upward price movement was partially triggered by the quick decline in entering pending orders. Investors were clearly looking to take advantage of the lower entry point. However, in addition to this, the employment data clearly indicates the strength of the employment sector, the economy and the ability to cope with higher interest rates. As a result, investor sentiment rose and was less concerned about the restrictive monetary policy.

However, the positive data also means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to feel the need to lower the Federal Fund Rate to support the economy. According to JPMorgan, the possibilities of an interest rate cut in March are now relatively low. Though the CM FedWatch Tool continues to indicate a strong possibility of a small cut in March. Therefore, investors are evaluating whether the assets and stock market may be overpriced considering the Fed is now likely to cut within the first 6 months of 2024.

According to Bloomberg, investors are less worried about when rate cuts will start as long as further hikes are unlikely. This is largely due to positive data and expectations of a “soft landing”. This shows the economy can deal with higher interest rates. The main concern for investors is that inflation does not rise. Thursday’s Consumer Price Index is likely to be particularly influential and inflation is expected to rise for the first time since September. If the Consumer Price Index reads higher than 0.2%, the USA100 potentially could witness a significant decline. Buyers will be hoping inflation reads no higher than 3.1%, or even better slightly declines.



The price movement this morning is trading lower, and investors’ main concern is the US market’s bond yields which are significantly higher. Higher bond yields can pressure the stock market and if yields continue to rise, stocks will become less attractive. Currently, the price of the USA100 is trading below the 75-Bar trend line, below the VWAP and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Oscillator. All three indicators point towards a potential decline. However, investors should note this is likely to change if the price rises above $16,435.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th January 2024.

The USA100 Climbs 2% and Chip-Makers Shine Ahead of Earnings.



*The USA100 climbs more than 2% as sentiment changes ahead of this week’s US consumer and producer inflation data.
*The US Dollar Index trades sideways as investor sentiment improves but participants are not yet fully disposing of the Dollar.
*Analysts advise the performance of the Dollar will largely depend on Thursday’s inflation data.
*Semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA and AMD outshine the rest of the stock market and particularly support the USA100 and SNP500.

USA100 – Can Stocks Hold onto Gains and Avoid Investor’s “Cashing In” Monday’s Profits?

The USA100 on Monday witnessed its strongest price increase since mid-November 2023 as investors take advantage of the lower entry price to position themselves ahead of US consumer inflation on Thursday. However, the lower price also provides an advantage for buyers to enter prior to the start of the earnings season.

The asset’s volatility will be considerably higher than normal and did not form a retracement for the whole of the US trading session. This clearly shows the session was dominated by buyers and that the market believes inflation will not rise above expectations. The strong bullish momentum is also a result of strong demand for stocks in the “Semiconductor” segment. This is most likely due to their strong earnings and growth over the past five quarterly earnings releases. NVIDIA stocks rose 6.43% and AMD rose 5.45%. Both are influential stocks for the USA100 and USA500.

When looking at the performance of the USA100’s components we can see all the top 20 most influential stocks holding the highest weight rose in value. In addition to this, 93% of the index ended the day higher and only 7% recorded a decline.

Bond yields this morning are higher again adding a further 0.040%, but the US Dollar sees little change. The higher bond yields are negative for the stock market if they remain high. For example, yesterday bond yields started higher but could not hold onto gains allowing stocks to rise. If bond yields and the Dollar both rise, traders may consider the possibility of investors cashing in yesterday’s profits. Though in the medium-term the price will depend on Thursday’s inflation data which will determine how rates may change.



In terms of technical analysis, the asset is witnessing clear buy signals due to the quick and strong upward price movement. However, investors will need to monitor crossovers, breakouts, and indicators throughout the day to determine how the price may develop in the short-term.

USDJPY – Japanese Inflation Data Declines as Expected!

The US Dollar is decreasing in value this morning for a third consecutive day, but not at a momentum to yet spark major sell signals. Investors in the Dollar are treading cautiously until the release of the US inflation data. If US inflation does indeed climb from 3.1% to 3.2%, a rate cut would indeed become unlikely for several months. According to some analysts, if inflation remains sticky for more than 2 months, rate cuts will not be likely until the last few months of the year.

However, if inflation declines and remains at 3.1%, the Dollar potentially can trade weaker. Up to now the strong employment sector and weakening inflation rate over the past 6 months has made a “soft landing” more likely. As a result, investors have been less interested in the Dollar and other safe haven assets such as bonds. However, this will only continue if a soft landing remains the most likely outcome and inflation remains low.

If the price rises above 144.305, buy signals are likely to materialize as bullish crossovers form and the price breaks the bearish wave pattern. However, if the price breaks below 143.65, the short-term crossover will point downwards.



The price movement this morning is trading lower, and investors’ main concern is the US market’s bond yields which are significantly higher. Higher bond yields can pressure the stock market and if yields continue to rise, stocks will become less attractive. Currently, the price of the USA100 is trading below the 75-Bar trend line, below the VWAP and below the neutral on the Relative Strength Oscillator. All three indicators point towards a potential decline. However, investors should note this is likely to change if the price rises above $16,435.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th January 2024.

JPN225 Again Renews its All-Time Highs, Yen Down Against All Currencies!



*China keeps interest rates on hold at 2.5%, whereas investors were previously expecting another rate cut. Asian stocks mainly rise after the Bank of China announcement and Taiwan election results.
*The World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos. Economists, brokers and bankers will be discussing the global economy, interest rates and inflation throughout the day. Traders will be listening keenly to how bankers view inflation after US and EU inflation rose.
*No US trading on Monday 15th, for Martin Luther King Day, meaning limited volatility for the Dollar. Friday’s earnings data “mixed” and provides no particular support for stocks.
*The Pound sees “mixed” price movement on Monday before the release of major economic data for the UK.

GBPJPY – Investors Await UK Employment Data and Inflation!

Investors turn their attention to the GBPJPY ahead of major economic releases for the UK. Additionally, the Yen struggles against all currencies on Monday providing FX traders with further opportunities. The GBPJPY has risen 0.40% in this morning’s Asian session and continues to obtain buy signals from indicators. The Pound has been supported by the UK’s Gross Domestic Product which rose 0.3%. As a result, the UK economy continues to avoid a recession and the Bank of England is less likely to consider interest rate cuts.

The growth in the UK’s Gross Domestic Product was primarily due to the acceleration of the services sector by 0.4%. From the G7, the Bank of England is the regulator which is expected to cut interest rates the least. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in March or May, whereas the Bank is England is not likely to do so until the Summer. If this transpires, the Pound can potentially gain, particularly if the Bank of Japan remains ultra dovish.

The Pound is likely to experience a lot of volatility over the next two days due to four upcoming announcements. These include the change in Unemployment Claims, Average Earnings Index, the Bank of England Governor Speech, and the UK Consumer Price Index. If the UK’s employment sector remains resilient and inflation remains above expectations, the Pound is likely to again rise. Analysts expect inflation to decline from 3.9% to 3.8%. However, the Pound potentially can increase if inflation does not decline. Anything below 3.8% will be considered positive for the Pound.

In terms of technical analysis and indicators, the exchange rate has been obtaining buy signals since January 3rd. Since then, the price continues to trade above the price sentiment line, above 50.00 on the RSI and continues to form higher lows. If the price increases above 185.495, further buy signals will be seen as the asset crosses the 61.8 mark (Fibonacci). However, investors should note that this will also depend on tomorrow’s UK employment data and Bank of England Speech.



Nikkei225 Continues to Renew its All-Time Highs

Earnings season started on Friday, with mixed results from the banking sector. However, the global stock market performed generally well as US Producer Inflation unexpectedly fell. The JPN225 is increasing in value for a ninth consecutive day and is trading more than 6% higher than its previous all-time highs. The bullish price movement is a result of an ultra-supportive monetary policy and a weakening Japanese Yen.

Economists expect that the Bank of Japan in its quarterly outlook report will cut its initial estimate of inflation. This is considered a key indicator of the broader price trend, believed to weaken from the current 2.8% to 1.9% for both fiscal year 2024 and 2025. As consumer price growth has beaten the 2% threshold for more than 12 months, investors believe that the central bank will abandon its ultra-loose policy and increase the interest rate. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate has been at -0.10% since 2016. If rates rise, the JPN225 may struggle to hold onto gains unless earnings remain strong, and the global economy experiences higher growth.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th January 2024.

Dollar Demand Rises and Global Stocks Tumble, Find Out Why!



*Investors price in 6 rate cuts in 2024, but all Fed members remain hawkish. Economists advise investors are getting ahead of themselves and the Fed is only likely to cut 3 times.
*Finance giants gather in Davos and advise markets rate cuts are premature and the risk of inflation still remains.
*Trump beats Ron DeSantis in Iowa and is on track to represent the Republicans in the 2024 US elections.
*The UK’s employment sector remains resilient, but salaries again see a considerable slow-down. The salary slowdown pushes the Pound lower.

GBPUSD – UK Salaries Decline And Dollar Demand Rises

The GBPUSD is trading at its lowest level since January 5th after being pushed lower by Dollar strength and UK data. The US Dollar Index has been increasing in value for 3 consecutive days due to higher inflation data and hawkish comments from global banking leaders. Another indication that interest rates are likely to remain high is this week’s bond yields. During this morning’s Asian session, the US 10-Year Bond Yields rose 0.055% and again rose above 4.00%. Higher bond yields are known to be Dollar bullish, but investors will monitor if bond yields can hold onto gains. This is something yields were not able to achieve last week.

The Pound this morning is declining against all currencies which provides traders with clear opportunities within the GBPUSD. However, the data from the UK is not “all bad” for the Pound. The UK’s Claimant Count Change read 11,700, lower than previous expectations and lower than the previous 3 months. Strong employment means higher consumer demand and means a trickier fight against inflation. However, the lower earnings do help regulators fight against inflation. As a result, investors are ditching the Pound in favor of the Dollar.

According to analysts, investors today have preferred the Dollar where there is already confirmation that inflation rose. Nonetheless, the Pound may correct if tomorrow’s UK inflation data is higher than the 3.8% expectations. Though, if inflation does read 3.8% or lower, the Pound may witness further downward momentum.

When evaluating indicators and technical analysis, the GBPUSD exchange rate is currently witnessing potential sell signals. The price is trading below trend-lines, average price movements and below the neutral on most oscillators. The price is also trading below the regression channel and the regression channel is also widening while declining. All the above indicates downward price movement, however, if the price rises above 1.27127, these signals can potentially change.



US30 – Global Sentiment Towards Stocks Declines. Eyes on Goldman Sachs Earnings!

The US30 is experiencing a decline during this morning’s Asian session, similar to all other US indices. The US30 was pressured by negative earnings data from the banking sector on Friday as well as the possibility of less rate cuts this year. However, technical analysts remind investors that the price has declined to a previous support level which the asset has not been able to break on the past 3 occasions. Traders monitor the price action as the asset tests this support level.

The next vital announcement for the asset will be Goldman Sach’s earnings report which will be made public before the US Session opens. Analysts expect the banking giant to see a 23% drop in earnings per share and a slight decline in revenue. Though, if the data is lower than expected, the stock price can decline. Goldman Sachs is the third most influential stock within the Dow Jones and holds 6.63% of the index.

Lastly, another negative for the USA30 is the stock market performance today globally; UK, EU and Asian indices are trading lower. The poor sentiment within the stock market is largely due to hawkish comments from the Fed and finance ministers in Davos. Analysts advise investors are pricing in up to 6-7 rate cuts in 2024, but banks are predicting 3-4.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th January 2024.

Eurozone Economic Trends: Inflation, Growth, and Central Bank Outlook.



In the ever-evolving landscape of the Eurozone economy, key indicators suggest a complex scenario of lower inflation and weakened growth. While central bank officials express optimism about a potential soft landing, the ongoing improvement in German ZEW investor confidence supports this outlook. As we delve into the intricacies of economic data, it becomes evident that the European Central Bank (ECB) is contemplating rate cuts later this year, despite maintaining a cautious wait-and-see stance, while investors are onec again buying into hopes of early trade cuts.

Eurozone data so far was mixed, with German HICP ticking up at the end of 2023 and German ZEW investor confidence coming in stronger than anticipated. At the same time, consumer inflation expectations declined, according to the latest ECB survey. ECB officials meanwhile continued to signal that it is too early to talk about rate cuts, even if ECB’s Villeroy repeated that rates are set to decline this year.

German Inflation Landscape: German HICP inflation, confirmed at 3.8% y/y for December, reflects a nuanced picture. The rise in national CPI to 3.7% y/y is partly attributed to base effects from a one-off energy support payment in December 2022. Notably, food price inflation eased to 4.6% y/y, contributing to an overall inflation rate of 3.5% y/y when excluding energy and food. The challenge lies in the impact of these rising prices on disposable income, weighing on demand and overall growth.

Economic Contractions and Optimism: The German GDP contracted -0.3% last year, with adjusted figures showing a flash estimate of -0.1%, potentially indicating a technical recession in the latter half of 2023. Factors such as high inflation, increased debt financing costs, and weakened domestic and external demand have posed challenges to the recovery from the pandemic. Despite these setbacks, German ZEW investor expectations unexpectedly improved, suggesting a cautious optimism driven by hopes of major central bank rate cuts.

Eurozone Industrial Production and Trade Dynamics: Eurozone industrial production contracted -0.3% m/m in November, aligning with expectations and signaling a potential decline in GDP for the last quarter of 2023. Concurrently, the Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened to EUR 14.8 billion in November, driven by a rise in exports and a decline in imports. However, the subdued improvement in real terms indicates that the widening surplus may not necessarily signify an overall economic upturn.

Central Bank Insights and Currency Movements

ECB officials remain vigilant, emphasizing that it is premature to declare victory over inflation. Despite differing opinions within the central bank, the latest ECB survey shows a drop in consumer inflation expectations. Geopolitical risks further complicate the outlook, with potential impacts on inflation. Austrian central bank head Holzmann cautions against expecting a rate cut in 2024 amid increasing geopolitical threats.

In the current WEF Annual Meeting, ECB’s Lagarde flagged rate cuts in the summer. When asked about a possible rate cut in the summer the central bank head told Bloomberg she suggested that there is likely to be a majority in favor of such a move by then, but cautioned that the ECB has to be “data dependent”. Lagarde stressed “that there is still a level of uncertainty and some indicators that are not anchored at the level where we would like to see them”. Meanwhile, ECB’s Knot stated it’s unlikely that rates will go up again, but he warned that the ECB needs to see a turnaround in wages before making a decision and that any easing, if it happens, will be very gradual. Knot also stressed that the more easing markets are pricing in, the less likely it is that the ECB will indeed cut rates. More push back against excessive rate cut expectations has put bonds under pressure this morning, amid the large number of central bankers stressing that rate cuts are not on the agenda for now.



US30 – Global Sentiment Towards Stocks Declines. Eyes on Goldman Sachs Earnings!

EURO: Central Bank and Growth Outlooks Influence Exchange Rates

In the currency markets, EURUSD has undergone correction in response to central bank and growth outlook uncertainties. With the USDIndex surpassing the 103 mark and Treasury yields fluctuating, EURUSD corrected to 1.0883, reflecting the dynamic interplay of market forces.

EURJPY has been oscillating within the 158.50-160.00 range after experiencing a robust rebound to a one-month peak of 160.17 last week.

From a technical perspective, the short-term range is delineated by the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous decline. Notably, the sequence of higher highs and higher lows, initiated from December’s low point, remains encouraging.

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still hovering above its neutral mark of 50, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing marginal strengthening, positioned slightly above its zero and signal lines. This maintains a positive bias in the market sentiment.



Practically, for the bullish momentum to persist, a decisive close above the 160.00-160.50 zone is essential. This breakthrough could pave the way for an advance towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 162.00 and the previously breached ascending trendline from March 2023, located at 162.70. Further upward movement may retest the ceiling observed in November at 163.70-164.28.

Conversely, if the price dips below the 158.50 support, a period of consolidation might occur around the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 157.40 before sellers target the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 156.45. A bearish breakout from this point could extend towards the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned at 155.20.

In summary, while EURJPY retains bullish momentum, a sustained breach above the 160.00-160.50 region is crucial for a more significant upside potential.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th January 2024.

Gold Council Indicates Higher Prices Amid Geo-Political Tensions.



*The US Dollar Index ends the day higher for a fifth consecutive day but declines during this morning’s Asian Session.
*Investors continue to lower the possibility of significant easing in 2024 after the latest US Sales data.
*US Core Retail Sales were twice as high as expectations and rose to a 3-month high. Additionally, US Industrial Production was 0.2% higher than analysts’ expectations.
*The British Pound gains after inflation rose from 3.9% to 4.00%. The GBPJPY this morning is trading close to all-time highs.
*Gold Report indicates high demand for Gold from institutions amid Middle East tensions and possible lower rates.

USA100 – The NASDAQ Declines But Outperforms Other Indices Due to Upcoming Earnings

The USA100 ended the day lower for the first time after 8 days of consecutive increases. However, technical analysts are noting that the price has shown signs of weakness since November 11th. The price yesterday fell to a new weekly low but quickly saw buyers re-enter the market. Earnings season starts next week for the technology sector and the bullish momentum is likely to remain only if earnings continue to impress. The Dow Jones and the SNP500 did not see an increase in buy orders like the NASDAQ. This is due to significant earnings expected next week for the technology sector.



When looking at the NASDAQ’s individual components, which determines and drives the price movement of the USA100, most stocks were trading lower. Of the top 20 influential stocks only six ended the day high. Of the “magnificent seven” stocks, only Meta rose in value, but not enough to obtain buy signals. From the most influential stocks Intel witnessed the strongest decline falling 2.12%.

Investors continue to scale back interest rate cuts after US data remains strong and economists at Davos correct the market’s outlook. The latest US data was the Retail Sales which read 0.6% and Core Retail Sales reading 0.4%. Both releases read higher than expectations and led to a decline in the USA100 and other indices. The higher UK inflation also lowered global investor sentiment. Today’s price movement globally signals a slight “risk on” sentiment but the question remains as to whether this will remain.

During this morning’s Asian session, the USA100 is trading higher increasing by 0.20%. If we look at most indices around the globe including the JPN225, GER40 and Hang Seng, all are rising. When looking at technical analysis, the price of the USA100 is yet to obtain a “buy signal” from Moving Averages and Oscillators. However, the price is trading higher than the VWAP indicator and buy orders are reading higher than sell orders. Therefore, if upward momentum remains, buy signals will start to materialize after surpassing $16,784.

XAUUSD – World Gold Council Indicates Higher Gold Prices!

Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday after the Dollar continued to strengthen. Bond Yields also rose, which applied further pressure on the commodity. However, Gold trades slightly higher this morning as the Dollar retraces and bond yields decline 0.010%. However, as the European Session opens the Dollar has slightly risen and most other major currencies are declining except the Yen. Therefore, the market still sees demand in safe haven currencies which can negatively affect Gold.

If Gold’s price remains above the pivot point at $2,005.70, buy signals are likely to continue to materialize. The same applies if XAUUSD rises above $2,014, but longer-term timeframes continue to signal weakness in Gold. However, the latest World Gold Council report advises the possibility of a higher Gold price remaining. According to the report, demand amongst central banks remains high and amid tensions in the Middle East many countries continue de-dollarization. Nonetheless, the timing cannot be known, therefore technical analysis remains vital.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th January 2024.

Market Recap: Global Stocks on AI rally; Yen Drifting.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* US labor-market data, strong weekly jobless claims, and higher-than-expected retail sales have added pressure against market rate-cut expectations.
* Markets now pricing a 57% chance of a US rate cut in March, down from 75% a week ago.
* Central bankers suggest markets are overly being aggressive in pricing rate cuts for 2024, contributing to the Dollar’s resurgence amid turbulence in China’s property and financial markets.
* Japan’s core inflation slowed to 2.3% in December, its lowest annual pace since June 2022, easing pressure on policymakers and weakening the Yen to 148.44 per dollar.
* UK: An unexpected rise in British inflation has also led to a pullback in bets on Bank of England rate cuts, supporting the Pound.



Market Trends:

* The TSMC projection of 2024 revenue growth of over 20% boosted Tokyo Electron and Advantest, contributing to a total 497-point jump in the Nikkei on the day, with respective advances of 6.03% and 8.2%.
* Chip-related shares, influenced by US peers’ gains, were prominent performers. Its earnings spurred the biggest rally in chipmakers in more than a month on Thursday and pushed the Nasdaq 100 index to close at an all-time high.
* Chip-industry stocks led a rally in Japan’s Nikkei share average, contributing to a 1.4% daily gain to close at 35,963.27, and a weekly gain of 1.09%.
* “The better-than-expected results from TSMC could be positive signals on demand recovery,” said An Hyungjin, chief executive officer and fund manager at Billionfold Asset Management Inc. “With strong AI demand, not only the US big tech firms but also most tech firms around the world have to invest in AI and that could be good news to stock markets.”

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is set for a 2nd consecutive weekly gain as signs of strength in the US economy and cautious remarks from central bankers reduce expectations of rapid interest rate cuts.
* AUDUSD and NZDUSD are on track for their largest weekly gains since November and July, respectively.
* Bitcoin hit a 5-week low at $40,484 as traders took profits following US approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Investors poured $1.9 billion into new bitcoin ETFs in the first three trading days, falling short of some aggressive estimates.
* Oil prices held steady at a 3-week high amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, where the US and Iranian-backed Houthis engaged in tit-for-tat strikes affecting global shipping.
* UKOIL hovered around $79 per barrel after a 1.6% rise, while USOIL stood above $74, supported by a decline in US inventories. The US conducted multiple attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen, but shipping remains under threat. President Biden affirmed continued US strikes. Crude prices, marked by volatility, face conflicting factors, including Middle East tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty, and a well-supplied market forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd January 2024.

Market Recap: Stocks extend rally.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* China’s lending rates remain unchanged. That followed the PBOC’s decision to maintain borrowing costs earlier this month, which was another disappointment that did little to boost Chinese stock markets.
* Recent data showing resilient US economic activity has caused a shift in expectations, with markets now predicting rate cuts to start in May instead of March.
* European & US stock futures keep rising, extending the rally in global equities that pushed the US500, US100 and US30 to all-time highs. Optimism over expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and the artificial-intelligence boom boosted Equities.
* Interest rate futures indicate a 100 basis points gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own projections for year-end rates, contributing to the dollar’s struggles.
* In political news, Ron DeSantis withdraws from the US presidential race and endorses Republican front-runner Donald Trump ahead of the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.





Market Trends:

* Chinese markets underperformed again today toward their lowest level in almost two decades. The Hang Seng plunged -2.8%, the CSI 300 -1.5%. Chinese tech behemoths including Meituan and Tencent Holdings Ltd. were among the biggest drags.
* JPN225 rallied to a fresh 34-year peak today (closed at 36,546.85) on weaker yen but also mainly as the US500’s record-high close on Friday buoyed investor sentiment, despite continued signs of overheating in the Asian market.
* DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.9% and 0.5% respectively while Treasuries have pared overnight gains, and the 10-year rate is now up 0.8 bp at 4.13%. The short end is underperforming in both the US and the EU.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is struggling to extend above 103 due to uncertainties related to central bank decisions in Japan and Europe this week. EURUSD down to 1.0890.
* USDJPY had a notable movement, bouncing from a 1-month low to a high, impacted by the Bank of Japan’s 2-day meeting and the expiry of a large amount of currency options.
* Oil prices are down as OPEC member Libya restarted output at its largest field, bolstering global supplies and overshadowing for now concerns about tensions in the Red Sea that look set to continue disrupting shipping.
* Key events for the week include the first estimate of US Q4 GDP, central bank meetings in Japan, Canada and Europe, South Korean economic output data, and initial readings of purchasing managers’ surveys in Europe for 2024.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd January 2024.

Market Recap: Asia stocks higher; Yen up post Ueda’s comments.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* China: Reports that Chinese officials are looking into a rescue package for the beleaguered stock market has given Asian equities, and particularly the Hang Seng, a big lift. Sources suggest authorities are proposing some $278 bln be invested in onshore funds.
* Japan: The BoJ left policy unchanged, maintaining its -0.100% policy rate and keeping YCC intact, as well expected. BoJ governor Ueda said there is more certainty in the outlook, which saw JGBs paring earlier gains. There were no significant indications on forward guidance. We see more of a dovish lean from the downwards forecasts, with the Bank likely to leave its stance in ultra-accommodative mode until April when the wage talks should be under our belt.



Market Trends:

* Asian stock markets mostly moved higher, with the Hang Seng surging 3% to a session peak of 15,472 before paring gains to 15,345. The CSI rose to 3240 after slumping to a 5 year low of 3218 yesterday. It was at a 2023 peak of 4201 in late January 2023.
* The JPN225 (Nikkei) is up 0.29% to 36,630.
* Stock futures are higher across Europe, but while the US100(NASDAQ) has found buyers, the US30(Dow Jones) is slightly lower but holds above its record high at 38k.
* Microsoft and other tech giants along with Goldman shares, which jumped 1%, have boosted the Dow higher.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex slipped to 102.70 from 103.384 and is seeing broadbased declines.
* USDJPY has been choppy, spiking to 148.55 before drifting down to 147.86.
* Oil prices reached $75 again, as US and UK launch new strikes at Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, adding to the tension in Middle East.
* BTCUSD dropped below $40,000 as the launch of the first US ETF holds the digital currency abated, as investors take profits off the table. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 6% to $2,325.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 24th January 2024.

Market Recap: China bourses move higher amid stimulus hopes; JGB yields spike.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Expectations the FOMC is done hiking rates continued to support Wall Street even if aggressive rate cut bets have been trimmed, while earnings were mixed.
* Yields remain mostly higher, but off their peaks after the decent 2-year auction ($60 bln 2-year note sale). The Treasury is selling $61 bln in 5-year notes Wednesday and $41 bln in 7-year notes Thursday.
* Corporate supply has helped keep the market heavy. IADB priced a $4 bln 5-year SOFR. Also, Romania sold $4 bln in 5- and 10-year notes. Sweden sold a $2 bln 2-year. Bank of New Zealand priced a $750 mln 5-year. Cote d’Ivoire has a $2.6 bln 2-parter. CPPIB Capital offered $1.5 bln in 3-year SOFR.
* Japan reported its exports jumped nearly 10% in December.
* Japanese markets underperformed, with both stocks and bonds hit by speculation that the BOJ is laying the ground for an exit from the negative interest rate environment.
* The China Securities Regulatory Commission, called for better protections for investors and for instilling confidence in the potential for gains in the markets, which have faltered in recent months.



Market Trends:

* Asia: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2% to 15,569.39, helped by gains in technology companies like e-commerce giant Alibaba, which surged 3.8%. JPN225 (Nikkei) lost 0.8% to 36,226.48.
* The US500 added to its gains, rising 0.29% to its third straight fresh all-time high at 4864.6 US30 however was drag lower as 3M tumbled more than 10% on Tuesday after the company’s 2024 profit outlook came in below expectations.
* eBay will lay off about 9% of its full-time workforce.
* Procter & Gamble climbed 4.1% & United Airlines flew 5.3% higher after stronger profit for Q4 2023.
* Netflix rallied 8% afterhours after the video streaming service handily beat subscriber estimates in the Q4.
* ASML Holding, a chipmaking equipment maker, reported Q4 earnings that beat expectations and its best-ever quarterly orders, but it kept a cautious outlook for 2024 as it faces new restrictions on exports to China.
* Futures are higher across Europe and the US as Treasuries and Eurozone bonds advance.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex found legs and rallied to 103.57. It was firmer against 7 of its G10 peers
* USDJPY steadied on 147.70 as Yen gained support after chief Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that the prospects of achieving the BOJ’s inflation target were gradually increasing.
* Oil finished -0.3% lower at $74.51 per barrel and Gold was 0.3% higher at $2028.34 per ounce.
* Bitcoin steadied around $39,700, after sliding as low as $38,505 on Tuesday for the first time since Dec 1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th January 2024.

Market Recap: Has US avoided recession in 2023? ECB also on tap.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasuries were weak with yields extending higher still, hit by the double whammy of stronger than expected PMI data and an ugly 5-year auction.
* The healthy rally on Wall Street also weighed, though stocks trimmed gains into the close.
* China bourses continued to rally after the PBOC stepped up support measures yesterday by cutting reserve requirements, while hinting at possible rate cuts.
* ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings unchanged and stick with a wait-and-see stance for now, which means rate cuts are not on the immediate agenda.



Market Trends:

* Hang Seng and CSI 300 already staged a late rally yesterday and continued to move higher today, with gains of 1.8% and 2.0% respectively.
* European futures are in the red, however, as the ECB meeting comes into view.
* US futures are slightly higher on the anticipation of US GDP later on which could provide clues as to where US rates might be headed.
* Tesla’s profits plummet! Tesla (-5.93% after hours) posted a 23% decline in profits for 2023, its 1st annual decline since 2017!
* Microsoft becomes 2nd company ever to top $3 trillion valuation on AI-driven rally. Apple remains at the top.
* FAA halts Boeing 737 MAXproduction expansion. Boeing -1.32% after hours.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex slipped to a session nadir of 102.52 but bounced back to 103.25 to close over the 103 level for a 7th straight session.
* EURUSD is steady at 1.0880. The USDJPY regained some ground after hints at rate rises in Japan triggered selling in the Japanese government bond market. It remains below 148.
* USOIL was up 1.45% to $75.44 per barrel amid ongoing geopolitical risks and following a bigger than expected US inventory draw.
* Gold was down -0.83% to $2012.50 on the stronger PMI data and further trimming in rate cut bets. Markets have reined in expectations for early rate cuts in the US and Europe, and BoJ governor Ueda yesterday hinted that the exit from the negative interest rate environment is coming into view. That should keep gold range bound for now.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th January 2024.

The Week Ahead – Earnings, Central Banks and Geo-Political Tensions!



* Tensions rise in the Middle East as three US Soldiers are killed in a base near the Syrian-Jordan border after being attacked by Iran-backed militants. Crude Oil price opens 1.15% higher.
* Gold rose 0.63% on Monday due to rising tension in the Middle east. Traders are evaluating whether the market will witness a “risk-off” sentiment this week.
* All eyes on the Federal Reserve’s press conference on Wednesday. Analysts expect the Federal Fund Rate to remain unchanged, but the Press Conference will signal the Fed’s future path.
* The US economy grew 3.3% in the latest quarter, beating expectations of 2.0%. In addition to this, Pending Home Sales rose 8.3% and the Core PCE Index rose from 0.1% to 0.2%.

XAUUSD – Geo-Political Tension Again on The Rise

The US Dollar Index did open Monday’s trading slightly higher, however, has fallen 0.10% over the past 2 hours as of the time of writing. Instead, investors are increasing exposure to Gold. Gold prices are trading 0.63% higher during this morning’s Asian Session and have risen above the most recent resistance levels. When evaluating technical analysis, the price of the commodity is trading above price sentiment indicators, above the neutral on most oscillators and above the day’s VWAP. Here we can see potential “buy” signals, however, investors also should note significant resistance points at $2,037.80. This level has triggered declines on eight occasions over the past month. If the price maintains momentum and crosses this level, Gold will move into the “buy” region of the Fibonacci levels.

The price is largely being driven by two factors: the decline in the Dollar and lower investor sentiment due to rising Middle East tensions. The group which conducted the attack is not yet known, however, President Biden has already advised the US will retaliate. According to the White House, the group is most likely an Iranian-backed militant group which is the main concern for investors. Though investors should note that this will only have a short-term effect if the situation does not escalate.

The next price drive will be the Federal Reserve’s Press Conference and the central bank’s forward guidance on interest rates. This will determine if institutions decide to further expose their funds to the Dollar or look for alternatives. The main alternatives will be Gold and US Bonds. If investors are unconvinced the Fed will keep rates high, Gold could benefit from a weaker Dollar. Tomorrow’s JOLTS Job Openings could also create further volatility.



USA100 – Investors Eye Earnings and Fed Press Conference

US investors are concerned about the developments over the weekend and as a result the rising oil price. Another concern for investors is also if the Fed gives an ultra-hawkish signal on Wednesday after strong economic data last week. Last week, the US PMI rose higher than expectations as did the economy’s Gross Domestic Product. Though stocks and shareholders will equally be monitoring this week’s quarterly earnings reports from major companies.

Tuesday Quarterly Earnings Report

Microsoft – +1.01% over the past week.

Alphabet – +3.30% over the past week.

AMD – +1.58% over the past week.

Wednesday Quarterly Earnings Report

Apple – Unchanged over the past week.

Amazon – +1.35% over the past week.

Meta – +1.61% over the past week.

The performance of the USA100 will largely depend on whether the above earnings are higher than Wall Street’s expectations and on the Fed’s Press Conference. If the Fed is viewed as “ultra-hawkish”, stocks are likely to experience significant pressure if earnings do not exceed expectations.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 30th January 2024.

The Yen Tops All Competitors and Investors Turn to Tech Earnings.



* Monday’s best performing currency was the Japanese Yen which took advantage of a lack of economic data and a rise in geopolitical tensions.
* Analysts advise institutions may increase exposure in the Yen due to geopolitical tensions. Japan’s unemployment rate declines to 2.4%, the lowest in 10-months.
* The USA100 rises ahead of tonight’s vital quarterly earnings reports. Of NASDAQ’s 20 most influential stocks, only three saw a slight decline.
* Tesla and Illumina were NASDAQ’s best performing stocks, rising more than 4% each.

USA100 – Microsoft and Alphabet Earnings Upcoming

The USA100 rose 1.21% on Monday as demand again rose ahead of major earnings from five of the “magnificent seven”. Tonight, investors await the quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft, which yesterday rose 1.43%, and Alphabet, which rose 0.68%. However, investors must also monitor the earnings data from AMD which is the 11th most influential stock for the index.

Even with the strong bullish price action over the past 4 weeks, investors should be cautious about short-term volatility. During this morning’s Asian session, the USA100 is trading 0.16% lower. US indices are known to decline towards the end of the US session and within the Asian session. However, if the price maintains momentum, sell signals can arise. On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading above the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and above the “neutral” on the RSI. Both indicate strong buying sentiment. However, the latest candlestick is bearish meaning buy signals are not currently active. Fibonacci levels indicate support may be found between $17,505.88 and $17,5870. If the price rises above $17,633, signals will again arise.



So far this morning the US Dollar Index is trading lower, and bonds are increasing in value. Both are indications that the stock market can potentially gain. However, in order for the USA100 to see significant upward price movement, the index will also need to be supported by tonight’s earnings data.

XAUUSD – Fed’s Future Guidance Key For Gold

Gold is currently experiencing strong volatility in both directions but continues to see buyers overpowering sellers. If we look at the price action from the price gap, the commodity rose by 0.47% and from Friday’s close 0.72%. We can see here even with strong bearish volatility at times throughout the day, Gold still finalized a considerable increase. Gold’s price rose a further 0.15% during this morning’s session, but analysts are slightly cautious about the resistance level.



The resistance level at $2,040 has been intact throughout the whole month and was only temporarily able to break above this level. Nonetheless, trend and momentum indicators are signalling upward price movement. Today’s CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings will significantly influence the price action of the Dollar and subsequently Gold. If the two economic releases read higher than expectations, Gold can potentially correct back downwards. However, a lower figure can further fuel the upward movement due to its hedge against inflation and alternative to the Dollar.

According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s latest report, the number of buy contracts rose by 2.211 thousand and sell contracts fell 11.280 thousand. Here we can see a possible shift towards bullish speculation.

EURJPY – Japanese Yen Currently The Best Performance Currency

The best performing currency of the day and the week so far is the Japanese Yen. Investors are returning to the Japanese Yen as most currencies within the G7 are expected to cut rates in the upcoming months, whereas analysts expect the Bank of Japan to slightly increase rates just before the summer. According to fundamental analysts, the Yen’s haven status can also serve as an alternative to the Dollar while geopolitical tensions rise.

The Japanese Yen is increasing against all currencies but one of its strongest price movements is against the Euro. The Euro has been put under pressure from a dovish outlook set by investors, not necessarily the Central Bank representatives. In addition to this, France’s Flash GDP figures for the latest quarter read 0.0%, meaning the country was very close to officially being in a recession. Investors now turn to Germany and Italy. If both regions also see lower a lower gross domestic product growth rate, the Euro can experience further pressure.

The Japanese Yen on the other hand is likely to be influenced by three releases scheduled for tonight’s Asian Session. Japan will release the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions, the Prelim Industrial Production and Retail sales. Higher data and a more hawkish central bank can support the Yen further, as did today’s Japanese Unemployment Rate. Japan’s unemployment rate today fell from 2.5% to 2.4%. investors also should note that weaker US data can also support the Japanese Yen indirectly.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 31st January 2024.

US Technology Stocks Decline Ahead of the Fed’s Press Conference.



* US Technology Stocks decline ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and press conference. Only the Dow Jones witnessed bullish price movement during the US session.
* Both Microsoft and Alphabet beat earnings and revenue expectations, but stocks declined. Find out why below.
* The Euro rose in value against all currencies on Tuesday, but the region’s Gross Domestic Product continues to indicate stagnation and a risk of a recession.
* The US Dollar Index trades higher but US Bond yields fall to weekly lows.

USA500

The SNP500 fell 0.33% during yesterday’s trading session and formed a 0.10% bearish gap during this morning’s Asian session. The price has since formed a price range which traders can use as a breakout level at $4,909.11 and $4,901.40. The decline in the index was largely triggered by the upcoming Federal Reserve Press Conference and “profit taking”, according to analysts.

Overnight the market focused on the quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet. Microsoft is the most influential stock and holds a weight of 7.31%. Microsoft stocks fell by 0.28% before the announcement and a further 0.25% after the announcement. Volatility levels were relatively low and according to analysts, the upcoming Fed announcement may potentially be the reason why. In addition to this, Microsoft did not add anything particular to their forward guidance which disappointed investors.



Microsoft Earnings beat expectations by 5.80% and Revenue by 1.45%. In addition to this, investors are also cautious about the fact that growth is largely being witnessed in the Azure and cloud services. Whereas the other 7 sectors are seeing relatively lower growth. Bloomberg advises the company earnings are solid and do not indicate a need for a selloff or significant decline. However, neither do we have any indications of upward price movement.

Alphabet stocks on the other hand saw a larger decline after their earnings report was published. The earnings per share figure was 2.50% higher than expectations and revenue only 1%. Even though the earnings were higher than expectations, shareholders were still largely disappointed. The previous 4 quarters saw earnings beat between 7% and 10%. According to analysts, investors took this as an opportunity to cash in profits and so there was no need to hold onto positions for the time being.

Of the USA500’s most influential 10 stocks, only 2 ended the day higher and from the 50 most influential stocks 28 rose in value. Here we can see that the individual stocks and components are not giving a clear picture and most likely tonight’s Fed comments will determine the price movement over the next 24-48 hours.



EURUSD

The Euro saw moderate increases against all currencies during the European session but lost momentum once the US session opened. However, the price this morning is showing much stronger volatility in favor of the Dollar. In addition to this the US Dollar Index is rising in value during this morning’s Asian Session. So, are investors increasing their exposure to the Dollar ahead of tonight’s Federal Reserve decision, statement, and press conference? Traders will monitor if this will be the pattern for the day.

The Dollar is once again being supported by considerably stronger than expected economic data. JOLTS Job Openings rose from 8.93 million to 9.03 million, higher than the previous 2 months and higher than expectations. In addition to this the CB Consumer Confidence also rose to its highest level since December 2021. If the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, gives a more hawkish press conference compared to recent ones, the Dollar can indeed potentially rise further. For example, if the Fed advises the FOMC will not vote for rate cuts in the first 2 quarters for the year.

When monitoring technical analysis, the price of the exchange is below trend lines, in the sell zone of oscillators and trading below the regression channels. All factors currently indicate Dollar dominance.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st February 2024.

Dollar Rises As Fed Confirms No Rate Cut At March’s Meeting.



* The Federal Reserve Chairman advises journalists that interest rate cuts are not likely in March. However, bond yields continue to decline indicating institutions continue to believe cuts are impending.
* The USA100 declines by 2.5% over two consecutive days after earnings data was unable to support individual stocks.
* Futures market points lower in Europe and Asian stocks show no clear direction. Traders are considering if investors will take advantage of the lower price ahead of tonight’s vital earnings data.
* Stock traders turn their attention to earnings from Apple, Amazon and Meta. The three stocks make up almost 18% of the NASDAQ.

EURUSD – The US Dollar Rises Against All Currencies!

The EURUSD exchange saw one of the highest levels of volatility amongst the “major currency pair” category. The exchange rate saw two significant impulse waves which can be explained using fundamental factors. The first impulse wave was in favor of the Euro and was largely due to the German inflation data reading higher than expectations. The correction which followed in the US session was due to the Fed’s comments on future interest rates.



This morning the exchange rate trades 0.30% lower and continues to obtain sell signals against the Dollar. The US Dollar Index is trading at its highest level since early December 2023. The Euro on the other hand is not witnessing any significant price movements against other major competitors. The Euro upward price movement was generally weak against the Dollar as German inflation still fell despite the smaller decline and also French inflation fell by a considerable -0.2%.

The US Dollar saw some negative economic data for the first time in over two weeks in yesterday’s session. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change read 41,000 lower than expectations and the Employment Cost Index for the quarter fell to its lowest level since July 2021. Nonetheless, the Federal Reserve confirmed in their press conference that a rate cut in March is not likely. According to analysts, the Fed will not likely cut at the March meeting unless employment data takes a serious hit. According to the CM Exchange, there is a 92% chance of a rate cut in May and a certain cut by June at the latest. The Fed did not give any indications that this is not possible and is being backed this morning by declining yields. The question is who will opt for larger and more frequent cuts, the Fed, the ECB or the Bank of England.

USA100 – Will Investors Continue Profit Taking?

The USA100 saw a considerable downward price movement on Wednesday and order flow analysis indicates seller overpowering buy orders. In addition to this, the assets traded below the volume weighted average price throughout the whole day. Technical analysis and order flow indicate a decline in the asset; however, traders also need to consider if investors will look to re-enter at a lower price.

This will largely depend on tonight’s earnings data. Analysts expect Apple, Amazon, and Meta to witness significantly higher earnings as well as revenue. However, the question is whether the companies will beat expectations. Investors will also be closely monitoring reviews on the new Apple headset. These reviews and future sales figures can significantly affect Apple stocks which hold 8.78% of the NASDAQ. So far, reviews are positive in terms of the technology and experience, but negative in terms of the price and demand due to the high cost.



GBPJPY – Investors Turn Their Attention to Bank of England Votes

The GBPJPY is decreasing in value for its fourth consecutive day and is trading at its lowest level since January 16th. Throughout the year the Japanese Yen is expected to perform well due to being the only Central Bank which will not be cutting interest rates. However, in the short-term, the price action will depend on this afternoon’s Bank of England Press conference and “Committee Votes”.

The rate decision is without a doubt not going to change this month, however, the change in votes can create volatility. Analysts expect 2 members of the committee to vote for another interest rate increase, which is lower than last month’s 3 votes. If the votes are more hawkish than expectations, the Pound can rise. Whereas less votes for rate increases or a vote for a decrease would significantly pressure the Pound.



Technical analysis signals a downward trend when evaluating momentum and trend-based indications. However, the price has fallen to the previous resistance level which can be flipped to a support.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd February 2024.

The S&P500 Renews Its All-Time-Highs. Investors Turn to Upcoming US Data.



* Investors take advantage of the lower purchasing price amongst technology company stocks. The NASDAQ recovers and trades closer to previous highs.
* Apple, Amazon, and Meta earnings beat Wall Street’s expectations. Apple falls 2.92%, Amazon rises 7.11% and Meta trades more than 15% higher.
* Apple revenue rises for the first time in over 12-months. Nonetheless, investors still sold shares as the company confirmed they are encountering difficulty in China, one of their largest markets. China previously has accounted for up to 25% of Apple’s revenue.
* Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to rise from 3.7% to 3.8% and for the NFP Employment Change to read 188,000.

USA500 – Earnings Push the USA500 to All-Time Highs

The USA500 was the best performing index on Thursday increasing in value by 1.25% and rising to a new all-time high. Technical analysis currently continues to indicate upward price movement. The asset trades above moving averages, above the Volume Weighted Average Price and oscillators continue to indicate buyers are controlling the market. The only concern for investors is the previous resistance level and if demand will decline at such a high price.



The price this morning trades within a price range between $4,937.90 and $4,928.87. If the price breaks above this level the assets’ buy signals can potentially strengthen. The upward price movement is supported by company earnings data. Apple, Amazon and Meta easily beat earnings and revenue data. Apple was the only stock which saw a decline after earnings due to negative data from China, its second most important market. Meta and Amazon on the other hand saw a significant rise in demand.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 3.7% to 3.8% and the Average Hourly Earnings to decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%. The Nonfarm Payrolls may also decrease from 216,000 to 188,000. According to analysts, the ideal release would be slightly weaker figures but not weak enough to indicate harsher economic conditions. Though weaker data can prompt the Fed to consider a rate cut earlier. However, higher and stronger employment data can temporarily pressure the stock market as it supports rates remaining higher for longer.

Important earnings reports will continue today and on Monday for the USA500. This morning ExxonMobil and Chevron will announce their earnings. Over the past month, neither stock has seen any significant bullish price movement. On Monday, McDonald’s and Caterpillar will announce their earnings. Both stocks are trading slightly higher in 2024.

GBPUSD – Bank of England Member Votes for Rate Cut!

The price of the British Pound rose in value against the currency market as a whole and the US Dollar Index moderately fell. During yesterday’s session the Cable rose 0.46% and is also trading higher this morning. However, investors should be cautious of upward price movements as the Bank of England were deemed to be more dovish than their global partners.

The Bank of England has a Monetary Policy Committee made up of 9 members. None of the nine members have ever voted for a rate cut in the past 4 years, until now. Only 2 members of the committee voted for a hike, which is lower than previous months. 6 voted for a pause and 1 voted for a rate cut. Additionally, the Governor of the central bank also said the regulator would consider a rate cut later in the year.

Lastly, investors will have their attention fixed on this afternoon’s upcoming economic releases across the Atlantic. If the US employment data and Consumer Sentiment read stronger than expectations, the Dollar can potentially attempt a correction.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th February 2024.

Market Recap – Dollar shines;Gold in free fall as US consistently defies recession fears.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* An eyepopping January jobs report capped off a huge week of events that ended with fresh record highs on Wall Street – FOMC indicated it was done with tightening.
* Dollar up as any hopes for a March rate cut were wiped out. Meanwhile, further evidence of the robust economy added to the growing optimism for 2024 after 2023 ended on a high note.
* The China Securities Regulatory Commission has announced its commitment to intensifying the enforcement of measures targeting offenses like market manipulation and malicious short selling. Simultaneously, it aims to direct a greater influx of medium and long-term funds into the market.
* Market sentiment was also negatively impacted by remarks from former President Donald Trump, who suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs exceeding 60% on imports of Chinese goods if he were to be re-elected.
* German trade surplus widened, but exports plunged – Germany’s export oriented model is struggling with geopolitical tensions.

Market Trends:

* Treasuries fell, extending Friday’s selloff.
* Massive earnings beats from Meta (20%) and Amazon (+7.87%) saw the US major Indices surging by more than 1%, while Nvidia closed 4.74% higher.
* Asian stocks were mostly lower as Chinese shares extended declines despite a series of stimulus measures and the securities regulator’s latest pledge to shore up the market. – the FED, China’s property sector & tepid investor sentiment are all pressuring the Chinese equity market.
* European futures are also narrowly mixed, while US futures are posting broad losses.
* Today: January PMI data for France, Germany, UK & Eurozone and US ISM Services.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex held gains, just a breath below 104, while EURUSD drifted below 1.0800. GBPUSD held in December’s range.
* The Yen crept lower to trade above $148.
* USOIL steadies above $72 as the US vowed more strikes against Iran’s forces while the Houthis promised to retaliate against bombardments over the weekend.
* Gold weakened!

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th February 2024.

Market Recap – Stocks surge as hopes of rate cuts recede; USD, yields higher.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasury yields elevated and US government bonds remained in a selloff after Fed Chair Powell pointed to fewer interest rate cuts this year than markets had been projecting.
* Strong ISM services index added to the selloff for Treasuries, as did the concession building ahead of this week’s $121 bln Treasuries auction.
* RBA left its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% – 12-year high. Surprisingly the statement indicated that “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out,” hence leaving a hawkish bias in place. – possibly this is more prudence and a cautious move in order to keep rate cut expectations from building. Forecasts show inflation will not be coming into the 2% to 3% target range until 2025, hence the hawkish slant, and will not hit the midpoint until 2026.
* BOE’s Huw Pill said that he did not need to see underlying inflation actually hit the 2% target to begin lowering rates.
* UK retail sales slowed in January.
* An unexpected jump in German manufacturing orders at the start of the European session reduced the pressure on the ECB to cut rates. German manufacturing orders unexpectedly jumped 8.9% y/y. This was the strongest bounce since June 2020 – glimmers of hope but overall demand subdued!



Market Trends:

* Chinese stocks rose after the announcement that China’s securities regulator will meet President Xi Jinping.
* Equities declined in Japan, Australia and South Korea. Topix fell 0.8% in the early trade ahead of earnings releases from Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi Corporation. JPN225 (Nikkei) fell 0.5%.
* US and European futures contracts showed modest gains this morning, extending the positive lead in Asia.
* UBS Group AG said it will resume share buybacks this year, vowing to hand as much as $1 billion to shareholders in the second half.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex rallied on the less dovish Fed outlook, rising to test 104.60 before dipping back to 104.15 today.
* The AUDUSD rallied to 0.6520 as Aussie bond yields jumped with the benchmark rising over 7 bps to 4.166.
* USOIL recovered modestly from its better than -7% plunge last week, rising to $73.28 per barrel before drifting down to $72.98.
* Gold fell to an overnight nadir of $2014.95 per ounce thanks in part to the rise in bond yields, but inched up to finish at $2026.30, the weakest since January 26.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th February 2024.

Market Recap – Cautious Start!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasuries bounced back after the worst 2-day stretch since June 2022. Dip buying supported along with a solid 3-year note auction & comments from the more hawkish Fed President Mester who could see rate cuts later in the year.
* China’s bourses initially rallied on stimulus hopes, but the pledge to do more and the attempt to fix the situation with a series of smaller changes hasn’t instilled lasting confidence. Stimulus hopes are priced in already and gains could fade, if there is no more decisive follow up.
* This year’s near -9% plunge in the Shanghai Composite index to the lowest since 2019, and the better than –10% drop in the Hang Seng, have rattled the officials significantly, especially as the various measures to date, including curbs on short selling, along with rate cuts and liquidity injections by the PBoC have failed to provide much umph.
* German industrial production corrected -1.6% m/m in December. A worse than expected result.

Market Trends:

* The CSI 300 is still up 0.96%, but the Hang Seng is now down -0.2% on the day.
* The Dow advanced 0.37%, with the S&P 500 0.23% higher, and the NASDAQ up 0.07%.
* European and US futures are flat!



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex was firmer but off its best levels as the gain to a 104.604 intraday high elicited some profit taking as the markets weigh central bank policies.
* The NZDUSD spiked to 0.6113, as government bond yields rose after the strong New Zealand jobs report, which indicated that the RBNZ could remain cautious about cutting interest rates. The Aussie Dollar strengthened as well.
* USOIL prices are firmer at $73.42 per barrel. Gold is 0.53% higher at $2035.66 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th February 2024.

Market Recap – S&P500 Breaks 5k; Gold & USD in a range!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Asian stock markets were mixed with mainland Chinese stocks swinging between gains and losses on the eve of the Lunar New Year holidays, while Treasuries stabilized.
* China CPI tumbled to an -0.8% y/y pace in January, steeper than forecast, after falling at a -0.3% y/y clip in December. It is the fastest pace of decline since September 2009 and a fourth straight month in deflation.
* Japanese bourses outperformed,after BoJ’s Uchida said it is hard to see a rapid lift-off in rates.
* Treasuries bounced back after the worst 2-day stretch since June 2022.
* Dovish Fed’s Kashkari currently sees two to three rate cuts would be appropriate this year, as things stand.

Market Trends:

* The Nikkei rallied 2.1%, mainland China bourses and the Hang Seng corrected again.
* European and US futures are higher despite a slight rise in yields.
* The S&P 500 hit a new high at the close, breaking the 5,000 level , driven by confidence in the economy despite worries like Fed policy changes and market conditions. The market remains strong with good momentum, even in a slower season.
* Ford Motor, Chipotle Mexican Grill and other big stocks climbed following their latest earnings reports.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is at 104.03, in a tight range as markets digest mixed Fed speeches and ahead of more economic data.
* The USDJPY depreciated against the US Dollar, reaching 148.80, following comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicating that the central bank is unlikely to pursue aggressive interest rate hikes, even as it moves away from negative interest rates.
* USOIL rose for the 3rd day in a row, above $74, driven by gains in financial markets and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The rise in global stocks is boosting demand for oil, despite the Federal Reserve’s dismissal of immediate interest rate cuts.
* Gold steady at $2030-2038.
* Bitcoin rose 0.85% to $44,564.62.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 9th February 2024.

Market Recap – Yen, Oil & Bitcoin Hit Key Resistance Levels Ahead of US Inflation Week.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Markets are closed for the holiday in mainland China, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
* Treasuries declined for a 2nd straight session & Wall Street closed with small gains, as the market continues to shed expectations on Fed rate cuts ahead. The catalyst for selloff was the declines in initial and continuing jobless claims, reversing some of the recent increases and indicating the job market remain solid.
* Nikkei (JPN225) saw an uptick at Friday’s close, pulling back from a 34-year peak as investors are in a profit taking mode in this 3rd week of gains. It edged up by 0.09% to 36,897.42 after surging as high as 1.15% to 37,282.26, marking its highest level since February 1990.
* German HICP inflation was confirmed at 3.1% y/y in the final reading for January. Inflation is still far above the ECB’s target, but on a clear downtrend, and for the doves at the ECB that is enough to start weighing rate cuts.

Market Trends:

* European futures declined cautiously ahead of US inflation data, while Asia geared down for the Lunar New Year holiday.
* Australian equities remained relatively stable, while Japanese stocks displayed mixed performance, partially supported by a weaker yen.
* The Nikkei rallied 2.1%, mainland China bourses and the Hang Seng corrected again.
* SoftBank Group surged by 8.72%, extending its upward trajectory for a 2nd day following the tech investment firm’s return to profitability after 5 quarters. The rally in SoftBank Group Corp. shares was propelled by a more-than-55% surge in Arm Holdings (Arm chip design unit), in which SoftBank holds a 90% stake, after the British tech company forecasted quarterly sales and profit surpassing Wall Street expectations.
* Nissan plummeted by 12% after the company failed to meet profit estimates.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex remained steady ahead of the annual revisions to monthly US inflation data, following last year’s revisions that raised doubts about the Federal Reserve’s progress in managing consumer prices.
* The Yen stabilized after a 0.8% decline against the USD on Thursday, triggered by comments from a BoJ deputy governor hinting at the central bank’s continued accommodative policy stance. The USDJPY broke 149 and extended to 149.49.
* NZDUSD climbed to 0.6133 along with New Zealand yields following ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd.’s forecast of 2 more interest rate hikes by the RBNZ this year.
* USOIL broke $76, eyes on $80 resistance level.
* Bitcoin spiked to 1-month high above $46,000, with historical data indicating positive returns post-Lunar New Year holidays, averaging over 10% in 10-day returns since 2014.
* Ether, Solana and Cardano also pushed upward.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th February 2024.

Inflation Expectations Were Too Optimistic. Investors Consider More Buys.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* UK inflation unexpectedly remains at 4.0% and Core Inflation data also read lower than expectations causing the Pound to decline.
* US inflation declines but at a weaker pace compared to expectations. US inflation falls from 3.4% to 3.1% (previously expectations were for inflation to fall to 2.9%).
* The best performing currency as we edge towards the European Cash Open is the Australian Dollar, followed by the Japanese Yen.
* The NASDAQ witnesses its largest daily decline in February due to the inflation rate pushing back hopes of an early rate cut.

USA100 – Core Inflation a Concern for the Fed and Investors!

After the release of January’s inflation rate and core inflation data, the USA100 as well as all US indices fell rapidly. When evaluating each component within the NASDAQ, only 6% of the index were able to hold onto their value. All stocks which held more than a 0.50% weight in the index depreciated. The reason for the decline was not that the inflation rate is “too high” or that interest rates cuts are not likely. Instead, the decline is due to investors now believing a cut in March is indeed not possible.

According to analysts, the inflation rate does not indicate any danger to the US economy, nor does it indicate there is any reason for a large lasting decline in US stocks. However, the news can weaken demand in the short term. Again, economists advised the inflation rate is not high, but simply higher than the over-optimistic expectations, and that cuts are still likely in the second quarter of 2024.

The short-term price condition of the index will largely depend on upcoming earnings reports from Cisco and Applied Materials. The two stocks make up 2.70% of the index and if these earnings read higher than expectations, it can reassure investors amid concerns. Cisco has beat earnings per share expectations consecutively over the past 12 months as has Applied Materials.

Investors’ main concern yesterday was the Core Inflation data which continues to prove difficult to tackle. Core inflation does not include products related to food and the energy sector. The monthly Core Inflation Data read 0.4%, the highest since May 2023. But slightly easing concerns is inflation elsewhere falling; the UK inflation remains at 4.0%, Chinese inflation fell as did Swiss inflation. The Producer Price Index will now be vital for investors. If the PPI reads higher than expectations, investors’ concerns could grow and the USA100 could form a correction instead of a smaller retracement.

On the daily chart, a retracement would mean a further decline between 1.89% to 4.40%, whereas a full correction would mean a 6.30%-8.00% decline. Currently the two-hour chart indicates an upward price movement towards the 75-bar exponential moving average. However, investors should note this will largely depend on earnings data, the US Retail Sales and Friday’s PPI release.



GBPUSD – The Pound Gives up Gains after Lower Inflation Data

The exchange rate continues to trade below major trendlines for a second day after stronger US inflation and weaker UK inflation. The possibility of the Bank of England opting for a rate cut first, or within the same month as the Federal Reserve grows. However, this will depend on upcoming data from the UK over the next 48-Hours.

The UK is scheduled to release their Monthly GDP and Retail Sales on Friday. If both read lower than expectations, the possibility of an earlier rate cut by the Bank of England rises. The UK’s Gross Domestic Product is believed to have declined by 0.2%, which would be the third decline in 6-months.

Technical analysis also indicates a downward trend. The price of the exchange trades below the 75-bar EMA and below the neutral on the RSI. On the 5 and 15-minute timeframes, the asset is also forming downward crossovers. These three factors indicate further bearish price movement and the Fibonacci indicates the price can fall down to 1.24990.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th February 2024.

Investors Continue to Buy Ahead of the US Producer Inflation Release!



* UK Retail Sales witnesses its strongest increase since May 2021, but economists advise the increase is simply correcting poor data from previous months.
* The Pound gains against most currencies, but the currency market has their eyes fixed on the upcoming US Producer Price Index.
* Applied Materials soars above earnings expectations. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by almost 12% and revenue by 3%. The stock rose 12% after market close.
* Bitcoin again renews its recent highs rising another 2.15% on Thursday. Cryptocurrencies are also likely to witness strong influence this afternoon.

GBPUSD – UK Retail Sales Beat Expectations

The GBPUSD was trading lower throughout the trading session but quickly rose to the day’s open price after the UK’s Retail Sales Release. The Retail Sales read 3.4%, significantly higher than 1.5% which was expected and -3.2% from the previous month. However, economists are advising a strong increase is not as positive as it may seem considering previous months saw a decline of 3.9%. Nonetheless, investors are reacting positively, and the GBP is rising moderately against all currencies.

In terms of technical analysis, the exchange rate is seeing neither bullish nor bearish signals. The price is trading at most trend lines and is neutral on most oscillators. In order for traders to obtain a clear signal, the exchange rate must maintain momentum and show a clear direction. If the price breaks above 1.26056, which is also the resistance level of the day before, buy signals will materialize. If the afternoon’s Producer Price Release is lower than expectations, a bullish breakout is likely to take place.

The US will release the Producer Price Index, Core PPI and the Prelim Consumer Sentiment. The strongest price driver will be the PPI and Core PPI release. Analysts expect both to read 0.1%, which is only slightly higher than the previous month. However, the question is if the rate of increase will be higher than expectations. Another higher inflation reading will again support the Dollar, but pressure Gold and US Stocks.



USA100 – Investors Await PPI Release and Attempt a Full Correction!

The USA100 saw a slight decline as we were approaching the US open due to weak Retail Sales, but again investors only used this to enter at a better entry level. The index ended the day 0.22% higher and is 0.85% lower than the previous high. Technical analysis currently points towards a full correction back up to $18,058, but this will largely depend on the Producer Price Index.

If the PPI reading is higher than 0.1%, the USA100 and the stocks market in general can witness another decline. The decline may simply be a retracement or a full correction back to 1.25341, but this would depend on how much higher the reading is. If the PPI and Core PPI reads 0.1% or lower, the bullish trend potentially can continue as per indications from Crossovers, VWAP, and Oscillators.

The index was supported by Applied Materials which released their quarterly earnings report. The company’s Earnings Per Share beat expectations by almost 12% and revenue by 3%. The stock rose more than 12% after the market close and can support the index if it continues to perform well in the upcoming days. The next major earnings report will be NVIDIA next Wednesday after market close.



Bitcoin – Net Inflows of Over $1 Billion this Past Week

The cryptocurrency market capitalization rose this week, but slightly fell this morning ahead of the PPI release. However, the general rise is positive for Bitcoin as is its higher market share which rose 0.29%. Investors should note the day’s inflation reading is likely to also affect Bitcoin in a similar way to the stock market.

The cryptocurrency market is being supported by the weaker monetary policy in China, one of its largest markets. However, the price action will depend on continued relaxation from across the globe. Another reason is demand for spot-Bitcoin ETFs which remains strong, with net inflows of over $1 billion over the past week. Technical analysts also note the importance of surpassing the $50,000 mark which is a strong psychological price/level.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th February 2024.

Market Recap – China Back, US closed!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Chinese stocks climbed slightly as China returned from the long New Year holidays. Modest gains showed that investors are worried about the longterm outlook. Much of the economy’s sluggishness is a function of the collapse in the property sector as well as the bearish effects of the many regulatory restrictions in tech, problems that would not be helped much by easier policy.
* US markets are closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday.
* This week: Eyes on European inflation data, PMI data from EU, UK and US, RBA & FOMC Minutes, as well as earnings from Nvidia Corp. and BHP Group Ltd to help gauge the health of the global economy.

Market Trends:

* Nikkei (JPN225) holds near 1989 highs, pressured by Friday’s selloff but also due to decline in chip-related shares. Nintendo was the biggest percentage decliner though, slumping 5.8%. Chip-sector heavyweights Advantest and Tokyo Electron were the Nikkei’s biggest drags, shaving off 60 and 55 index points respectively with declines of 3.2% and 1.6%.
* European stock futures are in the red, US futures fractionally higher on what is likely to be a quiet day, as US markets are closed.
* S&P500(USA500) rose 0.1%, Nasdaq (USA100) rose 0.2%.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex’s gains faded after the hot inflation stats crushed expectations for quick and deep Fed rate cuts. Currently at 104.
* The Yen is directionless, with USDJPY sideways close to 150 with volumes likely to be low through the day. The drag from higher US bond yields, particularly on tech stocks, is offsetting support from a weak yen.
* USOIL pulled back from $78 highs on the ongoing Middle East tension. The IEA signaled last week that oil markets could be oversupplied all year, and China’s soft economy has raised questions about consumption. Still, attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war are keeping prices from falling too far.
* Gold extends Friday’s gains, above $2020.
* Bitcoin at $52514.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th February 2024.

Market Recap – US & European equities declined, mirroring the drop in Asian stocks.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Futures for both US and European equities declined, mirroring the drop in Asian stocks, as an adjustment to China’s mortgage reference rate did little to alleviate worries surrounding the world’s 2nd largest economy.
* China implemented a record rate cut, reducing the 5-year loan prime rate by 25 basis points to 3.95%, surpassing economists’ expectations of 5 to 15 bp cuts.
* The RBA maintained its cautious stance, further suggesting that rate cuts were not imminent. Minutes from the central bank’s February meeting, released today, indicated that policymakers require additional time to ascertain if inflation is indeed decreasing before considering any potential interest rate hikes.
* Market sentiment outside China weakened as expectations for US rate cuts dwindled following higher-than-expected producer and consumer prices.
* Today: The Canadian inflation and European wages data, which are expected to influence market movements going forward.

Market Trends:

* Nikkei (JPN225) retreated by 0.3% from its recent highs.
* US Treasury yields edged up slightly, with S&P500 (USA500) futures and European futures both declining by 0.3%.
* BHP Group, the world’s largest miner, reported $6.57 billion in underlying profits, less than consensus estimates, and stated demand from top customer China was healthy despite weakness in housing.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex strengthened broadly surpassing 150 Yen, amid expectations of sustained higher US interest rates, despite Japan’s recession and uncertainty over its monetary policy exit.
* The Aussie, often viewed as a proxy for China’s economic health, remained largely unchanged, while iron ore futures, linked to Chinese construction demand, declined by 3%.
* The Yuan initially dropped to its lowest level in 3 months but stabilized at 7.1981 in the Asia close.
* Gold was little changed after edging higher Monday to trade around $2,020 per ounce.
* The USOIL edged higher against the backdrop of ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, a vital trade route. It is retesting again the January’s high again.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22nd February 2024.

In-Depth Analysis – AUDUSD – Investors Expect Fed to Cut First!



AUDUSD – Economists Do Not Expect the RBA to Cut Until 2024’s Third Quarter.

* The Aussie Dollar increases 0.67% and sees its strongest gain this week so far. The exchange rate trades at its highest price since February 2nd.
* The FOMC’s Meeting Minutes indicate the Federal Reserve is not yet willing to cut interest rates. FOMC Members are cautious about cutting rates too fast.
* Australia’s Wage Price Index for the latest quarter continues to read higher than where the RBA would like to see it.
* The Reserve Bank of Australia advise the regulator would not consider cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024.
* The Australian Economy weakens but not enough to pressure the RBA! Inflation remains moderately higher than the US!

AUDUSD – Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD is witnessing one of the lowest spreads amongst the major currency pairs and is seeing higher levels of volatility. The Australian Dollar has been rising against the USD for seven consecutive days, similar to the NZD and the Euro. However, the AUD is performing better than the GBP, JPY and CHF against the Dollar. However, investors should note that the bullish price movement is largely being driven by the weakness in the Dollar.

The US Dollar Index has fallen 0.50% this week and trades at a 3-week low. The Australian Dollar on the other hand is witnessing mainly bullish price movements depending on the currency pair. The Australian Dollar is increasing against the GBP, Euro, Yen, and the CHF but is declining against the NZD. So here we can see there are no major conflicts between the two individual currencies. However, investors will need to continue monitoring the US Dollar Index and price condition of the AUD against other major currencies.

The AUDUSD is trading above the 75-Bar Exponential Moving Average and above the “Neutral” level on the RSI as well as the Bollinger Bands. These three factors indicate a further bullish trend as the asset is yet to be read “overbought” on most oscillators. In addition to this, the asset has managed to break above the resistance level and the previous high, meaning the continuation of the traditional wave pattern.

The only negative indication when evaluating technical analysis is the measurements of the previous 4 impulse waves. The average bullish wave size is 0.87% and the largest has been 0.92%. The current impulse wave reads 0.87%. Therefore, if the pattern is to continue the price may retrace soon, even if it is going to continue rising thereafter. However, this cannot be known for sure.



AUDUSD – Fundamental Analysis

In the Meeting Minutes, representatives stated more fear about the remaining risks of a premature decline in rates than about a persistent period of high interest rates. Against this background, markets are reconsidering the timing of a possible easing of the regulator’s position in May and June. According to the CME Groups FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a May adjustment is currently anticipated at 30-35%. A strong possibility is considered anything above 70%.

Next week’s Core PCE Price Index will be key for the Dollar as this will be the last inflation reading for the month and short-term future. If the PCE Price Index is also higher, this means all 5 inflation readings beat expectations. As a result, the Dollar may rise. However, the Dollar’s issue is that the market’s risk profile is high, and many expect the Fed to cut first. Therefore, the Dollar may continue to struggle unless other central banks become more dovish.

Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate is lower than the Fed’s, analysts expect the Fed to cut first. Even though GDP Growth in Australia is weakening, the economy is still performing better than Europe and the UK. In addition to this, inflation is still above 4.00%, which is extremely high for the Aussie and the Unemployment Rate has risen to 4.1% which is still manageable according to analysts there. Therefore, most analysts believe the RBA will cut in the third quarter and after the Fed. Therefore, fundamental analysis is slightly in the Aussie’s favor here, but technical analysis will need to continue signalling a rise.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd February 2024.

Market Recap – Global Rally Pushing Valuations To Record Highs Across the US, Europe & Japan.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* It was all about Nvidia. Nvidia got a $277 billion 1-day boost to its market capitalization yesterday – the biggest single-session increase in value ever!(the previous record was a $197 billion gain by Meta Platforms Inc.)
* Treasuries continued to lose ground, hurt by the surge in risk appetite with yields cheapening to the highest levels since late last year.
* The solid jobless claims report, which followed on the heels of the hawkish bent in the FOMC minutes, added to expectations the FOMC will leave rates in restrictive territory into June at least.
* A weaker than expected S&P Global services headline saw rates dip briefly.
* Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday.
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller: ”interest rate cuts should be delayed at least two more months, but indications of healthy demand and concerns over supplies could boost prices in the coming days.”
* Today: Germany IFO business climate & GDP, ECB publishes 1- and 3-Year inflation expectations survey.

Market Trends:

* Massive global rally in risk that saw the NASDAQ(USA100) jump 2.96% to 16,041.6, falling just short of the historic peak of 16,057 from November 2021. The S&P500 (USA500) climbed 2.1% to 5100, and the Dow (USA30) was up 1.18% to 39,069, both marking new records.
* Asian stock markets today continued to move higher, with the global rally pushing valuations to record highs across the US, Europe and Japan. The Nikkei jumped a further 2.2%.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex was little changed at 103.80, below 104 for the first time since February 2.
* The Yen has performed the worst so far this year, experiencing a 6.3% decrease against the Dollar, as investors sought higher yields in other currencies, anticipating that Japan’s interest rates would remain close to zero for the foreseeable future.
* The Yen weakened against the Euro, Sterling, and other currencies this week, marking its 4th consecutive weekly decline against the US Dollar.
* USOil slipped to $77.85 per barrel after Fed speeches indicated delay to rate cuts.
* Gold dipped to $2021 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th February 2024.

Oil and the New Zealand Dollar Decline After Weak Economic Data!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* The New Zealand Dollar witnesses a quick decline as we approach this week’s central bank decision and press conference. The NZD falls 0.50% within the first three hours of trading.
* Oil drops to the lowest price since February 15th after investors price in a delayed interest rate cut.
* US Oil declines after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded an increase in oil reserves of 3.5 million barrels. The higher level of supply can continue to pressure quotes if demand falls.
* The US Dollar Index trades 0.12% lower during the Asian Session and so far, continues to maintain a “sell signal”.

NZDUSD – The New Zealand Dollar Declines Against All Currencies!

The day’s worst performing currency is the New Zealand Dollar which is declining against the whole currency market. Throughout the month of February, the NZD has been one of the best performing currencies, but as trading started this morning, a sizable decline was apparent. The NZDUSD is trading 0.50% lower, but the New Zealand Dollar is witnessing the strongest decline against the Pound. Against the Pound, the NZD fell 0.60% within this morning’s Asian Session.

The economy over the past 12 months within the country has seen a decline in GDP growth and Retail Sales while the Unemployment Rate has risen for four consecutive months. At the start of 2023, New Zealand had an unemployment rate of 3.4% while the latest reading was 4.00%. Economists are easily able to see how the restrictive monetary policy and weaker Chinese Market are weighing on the economy. Simultaneously, inflation remains stickier than elsewhere and considerably higher than elsewhere. These factors have resulted in economists potentially considering a more cautious tone towards the NZD.

Throughout the week, investors will mainly be keen to see what the Central Bank has to say regarding economic frailty and how this will affect monetary policy. For the current meeting, investors believe the policy will remain unchanged. However, if the economy continues to deteriorate in upcoming months, the RBNZ is likely to consider a cut sooner rather than later.



In terms of technical analysis, the price is currently “neutral” but close to a sell signal. The sell signal has not yet materialized as the exchange rate has seen significant gains over the past 2 weeks. However, if the price falls below 0.61618, the exchange rate will renew “sell” signals. Ideally investors would also like to see strength in the Dollar and the US Dollar Index. This way, the exchange rate is not experiencing two declining currencies.

USOIL – Oil Declines on Fears of a Global Slowdown!

The commodity saw a strong and sudden decline on Friday measuring 2.25% which lasted throughout the whole day. The price this morning is again witnessing a lower price as investors continue to struggle to maintain demand while the global economy is in stagnation, supply remains high and tensions in the middle east have not continued to escalate.

On Friday, the Fed’s board member Mr Waller said the Central Bank might refrain from lowering interest rates for at least several more months. Investors fear that maintaining a tight policy could cause a slowdown in economic growth. Consequently, this could limit oil demand in one of the leading consumers. Some economists have also voiced concern that other central banks in weaker economies may also follow the Fed even though their economies are underperforming.



Technical analysis, even though not a price driving factor, can assist with understanding the price condition. After the strong decline on Friday, the price is trading below most Moving Averages such as the 75-Bar-EMA and below 50.00 on the RSI. In addition to this, most timeframes show a downward crossover and the price trades below the Volume Weighted Average Price. However, Oil prices are trading at a support level which can be seen on February 21st, 15th and 12th. Therefore, to maintain a “sell” signal, the commodity will need to see fundamental factors pressure quotes further. This is likely if US economic data is lower and US inflation is higher. The US will release their Core PCE Price Index on Thursday and Germany will release their Consumer Price Index the same day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th February 2024.

Japanese Bond Yields Rise to an 11-Year High Pressuring the BOJ!



* Japan’s 2-Year Bond Yield rises to its highest level in more than 10 years. On Tuesday, Japan’s inflation rate declined from 2.3% to 2.0% which was slightly higher than expectations.
* Japan’s bond yields rise as investors continue to speculate that Japan will move away from their ultra-expansionary monetary policy.
* Investors consider whether higher bond yields will support the Yen in the month of March and if the NIKKEI225 will retrace back to the previous low.
* The US Dollar Index declines for a second consecutive day. Dollar traders will focus on today’s US Durable Goods release as well as the Consumer Confidence Index.

USDJPY – The Yen Increases in Value Against All Currencies!

The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen has been one of the only currency pairs where the Dollar has been able to gain over the past week. Whereas the Dollar in general has been struggling against most major currencies. However, this morning the Yen has risen 0.28%. This is because Japanese Bond Yields have risen, and inflation reads slightly higher than previous expectations.

Over the past week, the major resistance level which can be seen has been at 150.280, which is close to the current price. If the price breaks below this level, sell signals will continue to emerge. If the price continues to decline and form a bearish breakout, the price will also trade below the 75-bar EMA and the 50.00 level on the RSI. This would further indicate a downward price movement in the short to medium term. On 30-Minute timeframe the exchange rate has formed a bearish crossover on the Stochastic Oscillator as well as the Moving Averages. Simultaneously, the oscillator is not yet indicating an oversold price. So why is the USDJPY declining?



Investors should take into consideration that the Dollar has been depreciating for over a week even though the USDJPY has risen. Therefore, investors are considering whether the exchange rate is overbought in the short term. The US Dollar Index also trades 0.14% lower this morning and the Yen is trading higher against all currencies. One of the reasons for the Yen increasing in value is the slightly higher inflation data.

Analysts advise the inflation rate in Japan is not high enough to support the Bank of Japan changing their policy. However, the fact the rate has not fallen as sharply as analysts previously thought supports the Yen. If the inflation rate remains stable above 2.00%, the regulator may consider switching to a more traditional monetary policy, in the second or third quarter of 2024. Also supporting the Japanese Yen are Japanese Bond Yields which are increasing to their highest level in over 11 years. The 2-Year Bond Yield has risen to 0.172% from 0.00% earlier this morning.

JPN225 – Will Higher Yields Halt the NIKKEI225’s Bullish Trend?

The JPN225 has risen by almost 18% in 2024 so far and has been one of the best performing indices globally. The JPN225 has also outperformed US equities. However, investors are taking into consideration whether the JPN225 may retrace as the Yen gains. If investors use the Fibonacci levels to assist with what a retracement may look like, the indicators point to the assets declining to 37,863 as a minimum or to 35,010 as a maximum.

Alternatively, investors can use price action which indicates any retracement will on average be an 8.00% decline. Now, the index is yet to obtain a strong sell signal from indicators, however, the price is forming lower lows and highs which is a negative. In addition to this, the price has also recently been overbought on the RSI and has formed divergence signals. Therefore, investors are taking into consideration a possible retracement as Japanese Bond Yields rise and the Bank of Japan considers higher interest rates.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th February 2024.

RBNZ Says No More Hikes, NZD Crashes More Than 1%!



* The Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes a more dovish tone as the economy’s cracks start to show.
* The New Zealand Dollar declines against all currencies. Against the Pound the NZD trades 0.83% lower and it has fallen more than 1.00% against the Dollar.
* The US Dollar Index trades 0.20% higher as investors take a more cautious approach due to weaker economic data.
* US Durable Goods Orders decline more than 6.00%, the largest contraction since May 2020.

NZDUSD

The New Zealand Dollar is witnessing the highest level of volatility during this morning’s Asian session. The lowest spreads and strongest price movement can be seen on the NZDUSD. The exchange rate is trading at its lowest price since February 16th after the NZD collapsed. Over the past 12 hours, the NZDUSD has fallen 1.11% primarily due to the dovish tone taken by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and its Governor.

If we look at the 10 most traded currencies worldwide, New Zealand is the country witnessing the highest inflation and the weakest economic growth. The dovish tone taken by the RBNZ comes as a relief for locals and can support the economy. However, for the currency this simply adds more pressure. Economic weakness can primarily be seen in the New Zealand employment sector which has seen the unemployment rate rise from 3.2% to 4.00%. In addition to this, the Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate currently stands at -0.6%.

The RBNZ kept interest rates unchanged at 5.50%, but the main concern for investors were the comments made thereafter. The governor Mr Orr in his press conference said “there was very strong consensus that the official rate is sufficient”. As a result, the economy continues to remain unattractive due to weak data and potential for another hike is no longer possible. For this reason, demand has significantly fallen for the time being.

The Dollar on the other hand is seeing demand slightly rise due to poor economic data on Monday. The weaker data triggered a lower risk appetite within the market which supported the Dollar. Investors are now concerned whether the US’s GDP figure will indeed read +3.3% as per expectations considering certain data came in relatively weak. The Durable Goods Order fell 6.1%, Core Durable Goods fell -0.3% and the CB Consumer Confidence fell instead of remaining unchanged at 114.8. Throughout the remaining sessions, the price will continue to be influenced by the comments from the RBNZ, but also will depend on the Prelim GDP reading for the US this afternoon.



In terms of technical analysis, almost all indicators point towards a downward price movement which is understandable considering the bearish momentum. However, all timeframes below the 4-hour chart are currently reading oversold on the RSI. Investors should also take this into account.

USA100

The NASDAQ was the best performing index on Monday, but there continues to be a lack of bullish signals in the short term. The USA100’s price continues to remain above the 75-bar moving average and above the neutral level on most oscillators. However, the price is not maintaining bullish momentum and is failing to form higher highs. The price also continues to trade at the previous resistance level and many economists advise the price is trading at where traders believe is appropriate, hence the lack of a trend.

When we monitor the top 20 most influential stocks, 11 of the 20 ended the day higher while 9 declined. This is also an indication of no major trend within the session. From these 20 stocks, Netflix saw the largest increase (+2.39%) and Adobe saw the largest decline (1.43%).

So far, Bond Yields trade lower, which is known to support the stock market, however, the Dollar also trades higher which indicates lower investor sentiment. The next price driver for the USA100 will be the US GDP reading. Ideally investors will want to see strong growth but not strong enough to stop the Fed from cutting rates soon. Some economists are advising a GDP reading of 3.3% or slightly lower will be ideal for the stock market.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th February 2024.

The Japanese Yen Soars After The BOJ Indicate Interest Rate Hikes!



* The Japanese Yen witnesses its strongest gains since December 2023. The USDJPY drops more than 0.70% within the first few hours of trading.
* Japanese Yen is largely being driven by comments made by a key member of the Bank of Japan.
* The Bank of Japan advise they are considering taking small steps away from negative interest rates.
* US stocks decline away from the latest resistance level and trade 0.87% lower by end of day.

USDJPY –Bank of Japan Considering Steps Towards Higher Interest Rates

Many investors are looking to take advantage of the first clear indication that the Bank of Japan will look to take a more traditional stance on its policy. In other words, move away from negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates in 2016 and since then the Yen has declined by 25% against the US Dollar and 40% against the Swiss Franc. The exchange rate is now trading at strong resistance levels from November 2023 and October 2022. However, the question now is if investors will continue investing in the Japanese Yen in the longer term?

The Yen’s advantages are its safe haven status and ability to mitigate risk away from the Dollar. Investors also note its current price is at an extremely “cheap” level compared to other options. For this reason, economists are evaluating whether investors will look to buy the Yen for the long-term considering the Bank of Japan may soon exit negative rates.



A key member of the Board of the Bank of Japan, Mr Takata, said to journalists, “It’s necessary to consider taking a nimble and flexible response, including on how to exit, or shift gear from the current extremely accommodative monetary policy”. Based on this, investors should not believe the BoJ will suddenly go on a hiking rampage or start hiking imminently. However, Mr Takata gave the first clear signal that the regulator will start hiking in 2024 to at least move away from negative rates.

Due to this the Japanese Yen rises against all currencies this morning and Japan’s 2-Year Bond Yield again renews its highs. The 2-Year Bond Yield now trades at 0.185% which is its highest level since 2011. The higher bonds yields can also support the currency and global interest in Japan’s Financial Service Market.

In addition to this, the Yen has also obtained further support from economic data this morning. Japan’s Retail Sales figure read 2.3%, higher than the 2.00% prediction. In addition to this, the Core CPI remained at 2.6%, again higher than expectations.

In terms of the US Dollar, the currency came under strain during the US Trading Session but kept to its previous price range. The currency came under slight pressure due to the Gross Domestic Product underachieving. The GDP data read 3.2% versus the 3.3% expected, however, investors should note the growth rate remains competitive. Investors are now mainly focusing on the PCE Price Index, which is a favourite of the Federal Open Market Committee. If the Index reads higher than 0.4%, rate cuts will start to feel like a far distance away. As a result, the Dollar potentially can rise, and stocks could possibly decline in the short to medium term.

USA100 – All Eyes On Today’s PCE Core Price Index

The NASDAQ continues to struggle for a fourth day as investors remain unsure on the future path of interest rates. In addition to this, investors should also note the weakness may partially be related to the end of the earnings season and due to its current high price.

The day’s price movement is likely to largely be dependent on today’s PCE Core Price Index. Analysts expect the index to read 0.4% which would be the highest since May 2023. If the index reads higher the USA100 can potentially experience significant pressure as interest rate cuts will seem a distant dream. However, if the data is lower, investors will be relieved and may re-enter at the current lower price.

Technical indicators’ signals are currently at the “neutral” level but are close to signalling a sell if the price continues to decline below $17,810. Lastly, investors will also be monitoring the performance of individual stocks within the NASDAQ. Of the top 30 influential stocks, only 3 rose in value on Wednesday indicating a clear downward trend for the day.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st March 2024.

Stocks Rise To A New All-Time High! ECB Considers An Earlier Pivot.



* The US Core PCE Price index read 0.4% in line with analysts’ expectations. January’s Core PCE Price Index was the highest reading since May 2023.
* The US Dollar Index ended the day higher but did come under pressure at times from the inflation reading.
* The NASDAQ again renews its all-time highs after rising 0.95% on Thursday and a further 0.47% in Friday’s Asian Session.
* German inflation declines to 2.6% in February putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to consider a “pivot”.

EURUSD – The ECB Consider An Earlier Rate Cut!

The EURUSD exchange rate declined by 0.28% by the end of the day, but more than 0.55% from high to low. The exchange rate came under pressure from German inflation declining from 2.9% to 2.5%, the lowest since 2021. In addition to this, the US Dollar rose in value after a short-lived decline. The Dollar continues to be supported by high inflation data.



The Germany economy has been struggling from poor economic growth and political tensions. The German GDP has not recorded an increase in the past three quarters. Overall the Germany GDP Growth Rate has actually fallen by 0.6% over the past year. Due to poor economic data and inflation now being at an acceptable level, investors are contemplating whether the ECB will cut rates soon. France also made public their latest inflation reading which fell from 3.1% to 2.9%. The largest four EU economies are now all at an inflation rate below 3.00% and very close to their 2% target. Italy is currently below the 2% and is in desperate need of monetary expansion.

Price growth in the Eurozone continues to slow down, which gives the ECB more reasons to consider cutting rates sooner rather than later. In this regard, it is worth noting the results of the latest survey of leading economists conducted by Reuters. According to the report, most economists believe that the regulator will reduce the deposits interest rate for the first time in June by 25.0 basis points, but some experts expect that the ECB will ease monetary policy in April.

The US Dollar Index is trading higher, but its growth seems uncertain. Interest rate cuts are also likely for the Federal Reserve; however, higher inflation data has pushed back the potential date. According to most analysts, a pivot is not likely until the summer months, and it would continue to depend on upcoming inflation.

US economic data has noticeably weakened, which will catch the Fed’s attention. The initial jobless claims for the week of February 23 rose from 1.86M to 1.905M compared to 1.874M expected. In addition, the dynamics of pending housing sales in January decreased by 4.9% after increasing by 5.7% earlier, falling short of forecasts of 1.0%. Though investors must note that if the employment sector remains strong, the pressure on the Federal Reserve will remain minimal.

USA100 – Can The NASDAQ Maintain Momentum!

The USA100 is now trading at its all-time highs after receiving a push from the Core PCE Price Index being unable to rise above expectations. However, technical analysts warn the asset can potentially retrace before continuing an upward trend.

When measuring previous impulse waves and the size of swings before retracing, the asset is now at a level which may indicate a pullback. Investors also note that 34% of the NASDAQ’s individual stocks ended the day lower, which does show signs of some weakness in the market. Lastly, the 10-Year Bond Yields have risen by 0.020% and the US Dollar trades slightly higher. These two factors are also known to pressure the stock market.

However, when monitoring momentum-based indicators, the USA100 is trading above trend-lines, regression channels and shows strong upward momentum. Therefore, traders will be monitoring how the asset may break out of previous significant price ranges.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th March 2024.

Market Recap – March like the proverbial lion.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* March came in like the proverbial lion with the NASDAQ composite and the S&P 500 roaring to new all time highs.
* This morning, Asian stock markets were initially boosted by a broader tech rally. Top chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co saw its highest ever level – the company is the main supplier to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. and is considered a key beneficiary of the ongoing AI boom.
* Bonds & US Treasury yields are under pressure at the start of a busy week that includes the ECB decision, Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony and China’s National People’s Congress.
* Fedspeak so far were supportive. There had been growing chatter in recent sessions that the strength in the economy could prevent the FOMC from trimming rates at all this year.
* Swiss CPI fell to 1.2% y/y in February, which is further proof that the SNB has brought inflation under control.
* Turkey’s annual CPI swung to a 15-month high, close to 70%.
* OPEC+ output cuts to remain in place until the middle of the year.
* Today: ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann & Fed’s Patrick Harker speeches.

Market Trends:

* European futures and Asian stocks higher, with key upcoming events such as Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony and China’s National People’s Congress adding to market anticipation.
* The renewed strength in the tech sector resonated across Asia, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s leading chipmaker, reaching its all-time high.
* AI and Nvidia continued to underpin investor enthusiasm, boosting the NASDAQ by 1.14% to 16,275, finally besting the 16,057 historic peak from November 2021.
* The S&P500 advanced 0.80% to 5137, also a new high, marking its 15th record of the year, and it has gained in 16 out of the last 18 sessions, the best showing since 1971.
* Nikkei (JPN225) surpassed the 40,000 mark for the first time.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex remains under pressure, falling to 103.67 but drifting within a tight range on pressure by lower Treasury yields, as traders waited for crucial economic data for fresh clues on the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
* BTCUSD surged, briefly surpassing the $64,000 threshold. Market participants are speculating that the cryptocurrency is poised to exceed its previous record high of nearly $69,000, achieved during the Covid-19 pandemic.
* Gold remains in the green, edging up fractionally to $2084 per ounce.
* USOil is below $80 per barrel after OPEC+ members confirmed that output cuts will be extended through to the middle of the year. The decision was widely expected, but still supported the recent uptrend in prices.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th March 2024.

Market Recap – Stocks in red, Crypto mania extends.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* The markets have significantly pared back rate cut expectations and the front end underperformed in a bear flattener on the increased pessimism.
* Japan: Core inflation picked up speed in February, surpassing the central bank’s 2% target, suggesting that conditions for ending negative interest rates are aligning.
* Deflationary China set an ambitious growth target at 5%, 5.5% urban unemployment & 3% inflation: Premier Li also announced a budget deficit of 3% of GDP and $138.9bn in special government bonds. That added pressure on officials for more stimulus and policy support to fight the property crisis and deflation! At the same time Chinese PMI came in lower than forecasts.
* Bloomberg forecast puts growth at 4.6% this year, which flags the challenges China officials are facing against the background of a struggling property market.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street finished with small losses, albeit after last Friday’s rally that saw all-time highs on the NASDAQ and S&P500, with weakness in energy, consumer and tech stocks offsetting strength in utilities and real estate.
* The tech-heavy NASDAQ slipped -0.41%, while the Dow was off -0.25% and the S&P500 fell -0.12%.
* Apple Inc down more than 2% on receiving a $2 billion antitrust fine in Europe.
* Tesla’s stock declined by more than 7% as shipments from the electric-car manufacturer’s China facility reached a 14-month low in February, partly due to disruptions caused by the lunar new year festivities and intensified competition resulting from a price war.
* US and European stock futures are in the red, after a largely weaker session across Asia.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex was fractionally lower at 103.85 in spite of the eroding Fed outlook as gains in EUR and GBP outweighed the buck’s strength versus the other G10 peers.
* Yen holds steady within its 3-week range, currently at 150.40.
* BTCUSD holds largely in green, spiking to $68,800 highs. Its up around 57% this year, benefiting from flows into exchange-traded funds launched in the United States.
* Gold surged to $2115 as markets look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony.
* USOil prices have corrected lower despite the confirmation that OPEC+ output cuts will remain in place through the first half of the year. International oil companies in Iraq’s semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan denied reports that there is a deal that would allow oil exports through the Iraqi-Turkey pipeline to continue. Markets are also keeping a close eye on talks about a possible ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo for the talks, but an Israeli official told CNN that Israel decided not to send a delegation to Egypt because Hamas had not responded to two Israeli demands.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th March 2024.

Market Recap – Gold & Bitcoin to New Record Highs.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Risk appetite boosts Bitcoin and Gold to new record highs – boosted by expectations for US rate cuts, geopolitical tensions & the risk of a pullback in equity markets.
* The remarkable ascent of Bitcoin, which has already seen a 55% surge year-to-date, has been fueled by investors’ increased allocation of funds into US spot ETF products. Additionally, the prospect of global interest rate decreases has contributed to the rally.
* On Tuesday, Treasury yields corrected lower, while the weaker ISM data encouraged profit taking, especially with stretched valuations and growing uncertainty over the FOMC’s stance ahead of Chair Powell’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony.
* US equities futures and European contracts edged higher ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony.
* Attention turns now to labor market data on JOLTS and ADP today, Jobless claims Thursday, and NonFarm Payrolls Friday. It could be difficult to assess whether the boost is just a give-back or a real indicator of easing in tight labor market conditions.

Market Trends:

* The NASDAQ (US100) dropped -1.65% as the AI rally takes a breather. The S&P500 (US500) was down -1.02%. The Dow (US30) declined -1.04%. Weakness in the broad index was broadbased, though Target was a big winner after an earnings beat.
* The Hang Seng rebounded thanks to gains in Chinese tech giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Tencent Holdings Ltd, and the Hong Kong index is currently up 1.9%.
* The Nikkei (JPN225) corrected slightly, however, and the CSI300 couldn’t sustain yesterday’s rally and is down -0.4%.
* DAX (GER40) and US futures are in the red, as the focus turns to Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex retests 2-week support at 103.50.
* The Yen strengthened against the US Dollar, while the GBP boosted higher ahead of Britain’s budget announcement. The EUR retests yesterday’s highs ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision, with investors keen on any indications of future rate adjustments amidst persistent inflationary pressures.
* Bitcoin experienced a 5% jump, reaching an intraday peak of $66,540 amidst volatile market conditions, closely trailing Tuesday’s record peak of $69,202. The funds into US spot ETF crypto products and the possibility of a global decline in interest rates have added fuel to the rally.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th March 2024.

Market Recap – Yen & Gold on a Ride; ECB Today.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Stock markets corrected across Asia. US futures are down, and European markets are also trading cautiously in early trade ahead of ECB.
* Ueda: Chance of reaching target getting higher little by little.
* BOJ board member Junko Nakagawa: expressed confidence in Japan’s economy moving steadily towards achieving the central bank’s 2% inflation target sustainably.
* Reports suggest a BOJ board member could propose removing negative interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting.
* Yen is the biggest gainer so far, with Yen’s strength contrasting with its weakening trend over the past two years due to diverging interest rate policies.
* Overnight: Wall Street rebounded and Treasuries extended gains after some weaker employment data (ADP and JOLTS).
* Chair Powell in his Humphrey-Hawkins testimony repeated the FOMC anticipates cutting rates later this year. There was some angst he might tilt to a more hawkish stance. Powell emphasized the need for more data to ensure sustained progress toward the 2% inflation target.
* A significant haven bid came from renewed concerns over NY Community Bancorp. Reports the bank is seeking a cash injection have boosted fears as this was the way Silicon Valley Bank imploded (March 10, 2023). NYCB shares plunged to the lows of the day at $2.47, where trading has been halted.
* Today: The ECB is expected to stay firmly on hold, and even the doves seem to be resigned to wait until June for a cut. The stubbornly high services inflation and uncertainty about the current wage round means that rate cuts are not on the agenda yet.

Market Trends:

* Stocks recovered most of the selloff earlier in the week after all-time highs last week. The NASDAQ (US100) bounced 0.58%, back to 16,031, and the S&P500 (US500) rallied 0.5% to 5104.76, just shy of Friday’s historic peaks of 16,275 and 5137, respectively. The Dow (US30) advanced 0.2% to 38,661 but is off of the 39,135 top from February 23.
* Target was a big winner after an earnings beat, while the S&P 500 rose, driven also by strong performances from Nvidia and Meta Platforms.
* The Nikkei (JPN225) reached a record high briefly but closed down at 39,598.71.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is underwater at 103.12, still under the 104 level on expectations the FOMC will be cutting rates down the road.
* EUR and GBP held near 1-month highs against the Dollar. AUD and NZD climbed to multi-week highs.
* The Yen surged to a 1-month peak against the US Dollar fueled by speculation about the Bank of Japan ending negative interest rates soon. USDJPY is currently at 148.08, as Yen gained also against the EUR and GBP.
* Gold was up for a 7th day, rising to a new closing high of $2146.48 per ounce. Oil was up 1.25% to $79.13 per barrel.
* Bitcoin retreated slightly from a recent record high but maintained a significant year-to-date rally. Ether slipped after hitting a 2-year peak.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th March 2024.

Market Recap – NFP day post ECB & FOMC signalling possible June cuts!



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Global stocks rallied on dovish signals from the ECB and FOMC, while focus turns to today’s NFP.
* Lagarde signalled rates are likely to remain unchanged in April but that in the central scenario there will likely be sufficient evidence to make a decision in June. The ECB President stressed that wage growth remains key for the inflation outlook.
* Germany: German producer price inflation lifted to -4.4% y/y from -5.1% y/y in the previous month. German industrial production rose 1.0% m/m in January. The weak trend mainly reflects the contraction at the end of last year, but while production stabilized in January, orders trends and indeed manufacturing surveys suggest ongoing weakness through the first quarter of the year. That leaves Germany at risk of a technical recession!
* NFP Preview: The February nonfarm payroll report is likely to reflect gyrations and give-back from the outsized January figures. We expect a 160k rise in jobs, about half of the 353k jump in January and the 333k pop in December. The workweek should tick up to 34.2 from the prior 34.1, while average hourly earnings should edge up 0.2% following the prior 0.6% jump. The unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 3.7%.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street soared with the S&P500 (US500) jumping 1.03% to a fresh record high at 5157. The NASDAQ (US100) surged 1.51% to 16,273.38, fractionally shy of Friday’s all-time peak of 16,274.94. The Dow (US30) rose 0.34%. In Europe, all of the bourses ended in the green.
* Asian shares mostly saw gains, following the trend set by US stocks, which reached record highs. The Nikkei(JPN225) increased by 0.2%, Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 surged by 1.1%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped by 1.1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose by 1.3%, and the Shanghai Composite gained 0.5%.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex extended its losses and dropped to 102.67, the first close under 103 since January 15 as Treasury yields eased in the bond market after a couple reports gave potential signals of lessened pressure on inflation.
* The Yen extended advance as expectations grew for the BOJ to raise interest rates for the first time since 2007.
* EUR and GBP broke 1-month highs and multi-month channels against the Dollar respectively. EURUSD breached 1.0950 and GBPUSD is above 1.28.
* Gold held at 2160 territory, with COT reports indicating consolidation in the near future.
* Bitcoin maintained above $67,400.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th March 2024.

BoJ To Hike After Economic Growth! The NASDAQ Takes a Nosedive!


A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, September 21, 2016. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo - RTX2UM36

* The US added 275,000 jobs in February 2024 beating expectations by 80,000.
* US Average Salary Growth slowed to the lowest growth since March 2022. The US Unemployment Rate rises back to 3.9% after 3 months of no movement.
* Japanese economists advise the Bank of Japan may opt to hike in their meeting towards the end of the month.
* US Stock Market unable to maintain bullish momentum and hold onto gains. Stocks traders watch this week’s CPI announcement with caution.

USDJPY – No Recession For Japan, When Will the BoJ Hike?



The new employment data for the US originally brought about a decline in the US Dollar, before correcting upwards. The first reaction to sell the Dollar was largely due to data indicating a rate cut by June. The salary growth fell to a level which the regulator is more comfortable with, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Previously economists were advising the Unemployment Rate will need to reach 4-4.5% to bring inflation down. According to the FedWatch Tool, 58% of traders believe the Fed will cut in June and 25% believe it could be in May.

The Japanese Yen on the other hand is not seeing major volatility within this morning’s Asian session. The Yen is trading slightly higher than the day’s market price, but investors will monitor any change in momentum. Previously, the preliminary economic growth data indicated that the Japanese economy has slipped into a recession. However, the GDP rate read 0.1% which confirms “no recession”. Therefore, economists are continuing to predict the Bank of Japan will keep interest rate hikes as an option for the next two meetings.

The market is implying a 53% chance the Bank of Japan will shift rates to zero at its meeting on March 19th. However, some analysts still believe it might be at April’s meeting. However, the currency is likely to grow for as long as the Japanese economy does not fall into a “technical recession” and other competitors continue with rate cuts.

For this reason, investors are wondering why the USDJPY is not witnessing a large clear downward price movement? According to fundamental analysts, many investors are awaiting confirmation from the monthly inflation figures to determine when the Federal Reserve is likely to “pivot”. If the yearly inflation rate does not decline, the Fed may opt to push back rate hikes. In this case, the Dollar may remain stubborn. However, any fall in inflation can result in the Japanese Yen rising.

USA100 – Analysts Expect Inflation to Remain At 3.1%! What Does This Mean For the NASDAQ?

After rising to a new all time high, the NASDAQ took a nosedive falling 2.29%. From the top 10 most influential stocks, only Apple and Alphabet stocks managed to maintain their value. Broadcom (-6.99%), Costco (-7.64%) and NVIDIA (-5.99%) saw the largest decline. Even though the price was obtaining buy signals as the price was rising, there were also clear signs the price may collapse. For example, the price was “overbought” on many oscillators, and the RSI also formed a “divergence” signal.



The price of the USA100 will now primarily be dependent on tomorrow’s inflation data. The employment data was ideal for the USA100 as it indicates a resilient employment sector but possibly less upward pressure on inflation. Analysts expect monthly inflation to read 0.4% which will keep the inflation rate unchanged at 3.1%. According to analysts, the Core Consumer Price Index will rise 0.3%.

If inflation reads lower than expectations, even if slightly lower, the stock market could potentially rise, as interest rates become less attractive. However, if inflation rises, the stock market is likely to struggle as a “soft landing” becomes a lower possibility.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12th March 2024.

UK Salary Growth Slows But All Eyes On US Inflation Data!



* The Pound declines due to lower salary growth and the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%.
* The US Dollar Index rises after weaker UK employment data which triggered weakness in both the Pound and the Euro.
* US Dollar traders turn their attention to this afternoon’s inflation reading. Analysts expect US inflation to remain at 3.1% and for core inflation figures to fall from 3.9% to 3.7%.
* Gold sees significantly higher trades according to the CFTC’s latest report. The commodity formed its ninth consecutive bullish candlestick (daily), but trades lower today.

GBPUSD – UK Salary Growth Slows, But Will Inflation Become Less Sticky?

The GBPUSD is forming its third lower high but is yet to form a significant “lower low”. If the price declines below 1.27943, the downward price movement would have gained adequate downward momentum to form a bearish price pattern. Also, if the price declines below this level, the exchange rate will fall below the neutral on the RSI and closer to the 75-bar EMA.


However, in order for the GBPUSD to maintain momentum the price will also require positive data from the US inflation data. If US inflation falls below expectations, the Dollar may also witness downward pressure making the direction of the exchange rate less certain. However, if the inflation data reads as expectations or higher, the Dollar potentially will continue rising. This is due to interest rates potentially remaining high for additional months. Therefore, the price action is largely dependant on this afternoon’s inflation data.

The US’s latest employment data does show signs of weakening as the salary growth falls and the unemployment rate rises. These statistics may influence the decisions of US Federal Reserve officials on monetary policy: most experts expect a transition to the “dovish” rhetoric at the regulator’s June meeting, and in total, two to four interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each are predicted this year. Though, this will significantly depend on today’s inflation data.

The UK data, on the other hand, is largely viewed as negative, as it implies less upward pressure on UK inflation. The UK Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose from 3.8% to 3.9% and the Average Salary Index fell from 5.8% to 5.6%. Therefore, UK salary growth has fallen to its lowest level since September 2022. Previously the Governor of the Bank of England was advising high inflation levels was partially due to salary growth. Now growth is subsiding, will inflation also become less sticky? If so, the Pound can be pressured, if lower inflation is not also seen in the US.

XAUUSD – CTFC Report Confirms Buyers Outnumber Sellers!

The Gold price did not review its all-time highs for a fifth consecutive day on Monday, but nonetheless, the commodity also did not show significant signs of weakness. Factors continue to indicate a need for the safe haven asset. This includes weakness in the stock market over the past week, geopolitical tensions, as well as potential lower interest rates.

If US inflation reads lower than expectations, the Fed will likely opt to cut interest rates sooner rather than later, as economic data has slightly withered over the past 2 months. If this is the case, the Dollar will see less attraction as a safe haven asset. For this reason, Gold could strengthen or at least retain the recent significant gains.

According to the CFTC, speculative Gold contracts have risen from 141,600 to 191,300 over the past week in the US. The report confirms 164,640 buy contracts against only 33,580 sell contracts. This indicates more traders believe the price will either remain high or continue rising. However, traders should note this will depend on the inflation reading in the short term.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th March 2024.

The Dow Jones Rises to Monthly Highs! Is Gold Retracing Or Correcting?



* The Dow Jones rises to a monthly high despite higher inflation data for February 2024.
* The Dow Jones’s best performing stock on Tuesday was 3M Co (+4.97), Intl Business Machines Corp (+3.16%) and Microsoft (+2.66%).
* US inflation rises from 3.1% to 3.2% and the Monthly Core CPI remains at recent highs for a second consecutive month.
* Gold forms its first bearish candlestick in March on the daily chart, but Dollar struggles to hold onto gains.

USA30 – Higher Inflation Fails To Keep the Dow Jones Down!

The USA30 did not see the highest gains and lags behind the SNP500 and NASDAQ which both rose more than 1.00%. However, the USA30 (Dow Jones), was the only US index which broke through resistance levels and rose to its highest level for March. The USA30 is now witnessing bullish signals from trend-lines, regression channels and oscillators. The price is trading above the 75-Bar EMA, above 60.00 on the RSI and above the VWAP. These factors indicate the asset has potential to further rise.

The only concern for technical analysts is entering too high and at a previous resistance level from February. Though fundamental analysts are more concerned about the higher-than-expected inflation data. The higher inflation data did not cause a decline in the price, as it normally would. However, it continues to be a concern for investors as it puts off a possible interest rate cut in May-June 2024. The US inflation rate rose from 3.1% to 3.2% and Core Inflation fell at a lower pace compared to previous predictions.

If we look at the top 15 influential stocks within the USA30, 8 of those stocks are declining. Also, the most volatile stocks in the pre-market hours are Travelers Cos Inc stocks which are declining more than 2%. This currently indicates a sideways price movement, but investors will need to continue monitoring as we come closer to the US Open. Other global indices are trading lower including the Nikkei225, DAX and CAC. However, US bond yields are trading 0.012% lower which is positive for the US stock market.



XAUUSD – Gold Forms Its First Retracement

Gold has formed its first retracement after the higher-than-expected inflation data. This ends a nine-day bullish trend where the commodity rose consecutively. However, traders should note the price is so far only forming a retracement and is yet to indicate a downward trend. Therefore, the price can potentially still be within a bullish trend. The retracement can provide investors the opportunity to enter at a more competitive entry level.

If the price breaks above the $2,161.53 mark, buy signals are likely to again materialize. The commodity formed a triple top at this level but is not showing any downward momentum. Therefore, above this level, investor sentiment can again rise. The Fibonacci levels indicate that a buy trade can potentially aim for levels between $2,169 and $2,175 in the short term.



The 30-Year Bond Yield Auction can influence the price movement of Gold as both are known as haven assets. However, tomorrow’s Producer Inflation and Retail Sales is likely to create higher volatility. Investors will also be keen to hear from members of the FOMC, but none are scheduled to speak throughout the day. Economists are now pricing in at least three 25 basis point interest rate cuts, the first of which could come in June. Previously investors were pricing in four cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th March 2024.

China’s Gold Imports From Switzerland More Than Triple!



* Significant demand from China continues to push Gold prices higher!
* China has been using the safe haven asset to protect the central bank and reserves as the Chinese Yuan depreciated over the past 2 years.
* Economists advise the higher demand coming from China may indicate potential higher Chinese inflation. This could be a domino effect of lower interest rates and an expansionary fiscal policy.
* Gold declines 0.30% during this morning’s Asian session but remains above yesterday’s lows.

XAUUSD – China Pushes Gold Prices Higher And Looks to Move Away From the Dollar!

The price of Gold fell 0.33% during this morning’s Asian session, however, the asset continues to remain above yesterday’s price range. Using the Fibonacci levels-based impulse wave yesterday, the price is also still trading above the 50.00 and did not cross below the 61.8. Therefore, the possibility of upward price movement remains.



The price movement will also be largely influenced by this afternoon’s US economic data. The US will make public the latest producer inflation and retail sales. In the previous month, both supported the price of Gold as inflation rose, but interest rates cuts continue to remain “the main path forward”. Analysts believe the US Producer Price Index will again read 0.3% and retail sales to fully correct the 0.8% decline from the previous month. If retail sales disappoint, the demand for Gold can again rise.

Investors also note the price of oil has risen to its highest level since November of last year. If the price does not correct downwards, inflation may become more stickier than previously thought. This is also a concern which the Treasury and Ms Yellen have voiced in the past 24 hours. “I wouldn’t expect this to be a smooth path month to month, but the trend is clearly favorable,” Yellen said.

Though investors should note that according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration, the higher demand is largely due to China. The Swiss Federal Customs Administration advised the physical exports to China trebled in 2024. Investors are also questioning whether China is increasing exposure to Gold in order to mitigate away from the Dollar. In addition to this, Chinese inflation is expected to again rise due to expansionary policies in 2023. According to the CME exchange, the average trading volume over the last five sessions is 511.5K positions, which is this year’s high, far exceeding the February average of 267.0K transactions.

The US Dollar index during this morning’s Asian session has risen +0.18%. However, the index has slightly fallen at the open of the European session. Investors will also continue to monitor the index after the PPI and Retail Sales release. If the index continues to rise, the price of Gold can become strained. However, if the Dollar falls along with retail sales, Gold can potentially see higher demand.

The price is unlikely to see a continuation of the trend seen last week, according to analysts. However, this does not necessary indicate that the price is collapsing. Many analysts believe the asset will form a new range and honor a wider range. This provides investors an opportunity to use reversion strategies and pay closer attention to support and resistance levels. The latest major support level can be seen at $2,148 and resistance level at $2,185.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 15th March 2024.

BOJ Puts Rate Hikes On The Table After Historic Wage Agreement!



* Wage deals with Japan’s largest employers and unions have been agreed according to reports. Bloomberg confirms a 5% wage increase.
* Bank of Japan may hike interest rates as early as next week. Other economists believe the hike will come in April. Analysts expect the Bank of Japan’s interest rate to rise to 0.00%.
* Producer Inflation rates double that originally expected by analysts. Core Producer Inflation also continues to rise.
* 31% of the NASDAQ’s stocks decline as investors price in fewer rate hikes in 2024.

GBPJPY – BOJ Set to Hike for the First Time Since 2007 After Higher Salaries Agreed!



The GBPJPY fell up to 0.28% during this morning’s Asian session as unions and employers gave consent for a 5% wage increase. This gives enough room for the Bank of Japan to consider a rate increase to move out of negative interest rates. However, the Yen has fallen since against the currency market as a whole. Nonetheless, the hike and wage increase could support the Yen in the medium to long term.

Analysts advise the Bank of Japan is likely to increase rates either at next week’s bank meeting or in April, but no later. However, economists are yet to confirm how high rates may go. Analysts advise the bank will most likely opt to hike on two occasions by 0.10%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 0.10%, the highest since 2010.

The possibility of rate hikes is deemed to be positive for the Japanese Yen as well as the higher possibility of sticky inflation globally. The Japanese Industry Activity also rose 0.3%, more than previous expectations, which supports the Yen. However, investors should be cautious of volatility and ensure their entry is appropriate based on technical analysis. The price over the past 48 hours is moving within a sideways range but is showing more downward volatility.

UA Zensen, Japan’s largest industrial and trade union representing more than 1.8 million workers, announced that companies have agreed to the largest wage increase since 2013. Thus, this year for full-time workers it may increase by 5.9%, and for part-time workers by 6.5%.

When monitoring each currency individually, we can see the Pound is seeing a “mixed” performance. The Pound during this morning’s Asian session and European Cash Open has depreciated against the Euro and the Pound. The Japanese Yen declined throughout the first 3 days of the week but rose on Thursday.

Even though the price of the Pound has considerably risen against the Yen over the past 90 minutes, the Yen could see different signals rise throughout the day. For example, if the price declines below 188.949, Fibonacci levels and price action will signal a decline. With such a decline, the price will also again fall below the 75-Bar EMA and “Neutral” level on the RSI.

USA100 – Global Stocks Rise on Friday

The USA100 rose 0.19% as the European markets opened as did other indices such as the DAX, French CAC and even the NIKKEI225. The positive price movement from global equities is positive as it may indicate a higher risk appetite and investor sentiment. In addition to this, US Bond Yields are also trading lower this morning which is known to potentially support stocks. These are signs of a potential correction to the trend line at $18,090. However, this is something investors will need to keep monitoring through the day.



In terms of fundamental analysis, yesterday’s Producer Price data and Retail Sales have added pressure on equities. Most analysis now believe the Federal Reserve will only opt for 2-3 hikes in 2024. Most economists still believe the Fed will cut in June, but rate cuts thereafter will be less frequent. Some analysts advise if this continues, the index will struggle to renew highs from March 8th.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 19th March 2024.

Market Recap – It’s a classic ‘Buy the rumour, sell the fact.

[img]https://analysis.hfm.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/front_7cc8e4a1-f230-4746-8a82-f08359556cfb_1024x1024-696x450.webp[/img]

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

The advent of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the further slippage in Fed rate cut expectations extended selling pressures on Treasuries.

* Corporate issuance and the risk-on trades into equities weighed too.
* BoJ delivers dovish hike: The BoJ ended its yield curve control, ETF buying and the 8 years of negative interest rates and ushered in the nation’s first policy tightening since 2007. Also the bank pledged to continue to buy long-term government bonds. There was little indication of additional hikes, which signalled that this is not the first step of a rapid tightening cycle.
* RBA drops tightening bias, as it keeps the policy rate at a 12-year-high. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for another meeting, but removed any reference to possible further hikes from the statement. When asked if the RBA had indeed moved to a neutral stance, Bullock said the risks to the outlook are indeed “finely balanced now”.
* Today: The FOMC meets for 2 days, and will issue its post-meeting statement at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street bounced but pared its early rally. It continued to shrug off the evolving Fed outlook and instead re-focused on tech enthusiasm.
* A Bloomberg report that Apple is in talks to build Google’s Gemini AI engine into the iPhone boosted risk appetite.
* The NASDAQ (US100) advanced 0.82%, after halving early gains. The S&P500 (US500) was up 0.63% and the Dow was 0.20% higher.
* Nikkei (JPN225) was choppy after the decision but closed 0.66% higher, while Japanese government bond yields fell.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex firmed and held over the 103 mark. It rose to 103.45.
* The USDJPY lifted to 150.47, with the Yen paring recent gains, despite the hike, as Ueda made clear that the inflation target has not been reached yet. As interest rate differentials between Japan and the United States remain stark, Yen is likely to remain under pressure.
* Antipodeans: AUD and NZD slid to 2-week lows, i.e. 0.6515 and 0.6050 respectively.
* Gold eased to $2,153.95 and USOIL steadied at $82.
* Bitcoin drifted for a 4th day in a row, currently at $64,500, slightly above 20-DMA.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 20th March 2024.

Market Recap – All eyes on FED.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasury yields are sinking as bonds await the FOMC’s results. The market is recovering slightly from this month’s selloff that has taken rates to the highest levels since late November.
* Stock markets traded mixed overnight, while Bonds have been in demand as the FOMC announcement comes into view.
* German producer prices fell -4.1% y/y in February. PPI has bottomed out, but so far is still firmly in negative territory, largely thanks to a -10.1% y/y drop in energy prices. Developments are backing the ECB’s assessment that things are moving in the right direction. Services price inflation though, which is more driven by wage growth than goods prices, remains stubbornly high for now.
* UK inflation continues to decelerate adding support to the bond market. The data confirms that inflation is moving in the right direction, but also that it remains far too high, which will justify a dovish hold from the BoE tomorrow.
* FOMC Checklist: The FOMC will issue its post-meeting statement today. Expectations are for no policy change at this meeting, but verbiage will be closely monitored for hints regarding the rate path in the remainder of 2024. The SEP was last updated in December, and is due for another update at this March meeting.

[img]https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/RTSAPVwx6OkyNsqDzEG6bw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTU0MjtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/3f55b2577a21664ff65ee6fd20665105[/img]

Market Trends:

* A mixed open on Wall Street with some weakness on profit taking after further AI inspired gains. The Dow climbed 0.83%, with the S&P500 (US500) advancing 0.56%, while the NASDAQ (US100) was up 0.39%.
* ASX paring some of Tuesday’s gains, while China bourses nudged higher.
* Nvidia (+1.07%) debuts next-generation Blackwell AI chip at GTC 2024.
* Microsoft hires DeepMind founder to lead new AI shift.
* Apple is in talks with Alphabet’s Google to potentially incorporate Google’s “Gemini” generative AI engine into its iPhones.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex found a bid too after the BoJ’s dovish hike. It tested 104.06 but slid to 103.82 at the close.
* USDJPY is at 151.57 spiking to 4-month highs while EURJPY spiked to a 16-year peak after the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates without clear guidance on further hikes.
* A stronger than expected German ZEW investor confidence reading failed to boost the Euro significantly. Cable is holding slightly below the 1.27 mark.
* Gold flattened for a 3rd day in a row and USOIL fell to $82.24 from $83.
* Bitcoin continued to pull back from its recent record high, falling over 5% at one point. Shares of crypto-linked companies Coinbase (COIN) and Marathon Digital (MARA) lost ground alongside the token.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 22th March 2024.

Pending Orders and Apple Lawsuit Apply Selling Pressure on the NASDAQ!



* Apple stocks witness the second largest decline within the NASDAQ, falling more than 4.00%. Shareholders sold shares after news of another federal antitrust law violation.
* Apple is set to receive its second fine from regulators for “monopolizing” the phone sector. The company has already received a $1.8 billion fine from the EU.
* The NASDAQ rises 2.43% after the Fed’s dovish tone before triggering pending orders. The USA100 ended the day 0.24% higher.
* UK Retail Sales remain unchanged beating expectations of a -0.4% decline. The Pound declines against most currencies regardless of higher retail sales data.

USA100 – Apple Stocks Struggle After A Second Antitrust Lawsuit!

The price of the USA100 is trading slightly lower during this morning’s Asian session continuing the downward momentum from 18:00 (GMT+2) onwards. The downward momentum was largely due to pending orders to sell at the new high. These orders are seen on the Depth of Market and Volume profile. However, in addition to this, the NASDAQ’s second most influential stock, Apple, declined more than 4%.

The NASDAQ has assigned a “weight” of 7.71% to Apple stock which is a concern for NASDAQ holders. This is because Apple has received another lawsuit against them for antitrust violations and “monopolizing” the industry through purposely making competitors’ products less suitable. Certain States within the US advised “Apple’s success is less based on the merits of their product but making other products less convenient for consumers”.

This would be the second penalty for Apple in 2024. The EU has already given Apple a $1.8 billion fine which has caused Apple stocks to fall up to 10%. If Apple stocks continue to decline, this may apply some pressure on the USA100 and will definitely result in the stock holding a lower weight. The USA100 was better supported by stocks with less weight rather than the more influential stocks. Of the top 20 influential stocks, 9 fell in value, while only 27% fell in value when monitoring the whole NASDAQ. Later in the day, the stock market in general can witness volatility as the Fed chairman is due to speak.



In terms of technical analysis, we can see the regression channel has thinned, which indicates there are no current active signals. The price instead will need to gain momentum and direction in order for signals to materialise. The breakout levels can be seen at $18,317.20 and $18,377.37. However, investors should note that these levels can also form “false breakouts”. The medium-term charts, such as the 2-hour chart, indicate buyers control the market. However, if a bearish price movement forms, support can be found between $18,191 and $18,246.

GBPUSD – Economic Data Continues to Improve Sentiment Towards The Dollar!

The cable exchange rate trades at its lowest level in over a month due to the strengthening Dollar and dovishness amongst members of the Bank of England. The exchange rate fell 0.99% on Thursday and a further 0.56% during this morning’s two sessions.



The BoE’s accompanying statement stated that inflation pressures are weakening, but wage growth rates remain above target levels, creating additional risks for the economy if the transition to a “dovish” course is too rapid. Though investors are concentrating more on the fact the Monetary Policy Committee saw no votes for a rate hike. For this reason, the committee seem more bearish than bullish. 8 members voted for a pause and 1 for a cut.

The US Dollar on the other hand is trading higher due to weakness in other currencies and the possibilities of less frequent cuts. Based on the comments from the Fed, the regulator will not delay the cuts but simply make them less frequent. In addition to this, the US Dollar is being supported by the latest US economic data. Unemployment claims remained low while the Philly Fed Index and Existing Home Sales significantly rose above expectations. In addition to this, investors were happy to see both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI indexes remain above the significant 50.00 mark.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 26th March 2024.

Market Recap – Quarter End Comes Into View.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

Treasuries, Wall Street, and the US Dollar all posted small losses to start the abbreviated week of trading.

* The market is consolidating into quarter-end. This week’s supply is pressuring at the margin, while uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path is limiting buying. Though the just-published dots assuaged concerns over the prospects for less than 3 rate cuts this year, anxiety remains high, especially after Bostic said he trimmed his estimate to 1 easing this year from 2 previously.
* Stock markets traded cautiously overnight, as the quarter end comes into view. China bourses outperformed, while Nikkei and ASX corrected.
* The offshore Yuan strengthened for a second day after China’s central bank reinforced its support for the currency.
* Geopolitics: Ukrainian drone attacks have caused disruptions at Russian oil refineries, with around 12% of the country’s oil processing capacity reportedly impacted. A resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza was vetoed by Russia and China and a terrorist attack in Russia over the weekend added to geopolitical risks as did fresh threats by Yemen-based Houthi militants against Saudi Arabia.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street slipped on profit taking ahead of quarter-end, having made strong gains since the start of the year and hitting record highs last Thursday.
* The Dow fell -0.41%, the S&P500 was off -0.31% and the NASDAQ was down -0.27%. For the quarter, the S&P500 and NASDAQ are up 9.44% and 9.15%, respectively, and the Dow is up 4.3%.
* DAX and FTSE100 futures are also in the red, while US futures have moved higher.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has been in consolidation mode at the start of the week and is currently trading at 103.77.
* The Yen strengthened against USD and CHF, but USDJPY is still at 151.20. Japan’s top currency officials warned against speculative moves in foreign exchange markets, after the recent weakness in the yen saw USDJPY climbing above 151 once again.
* Gold continues to trade near record highs, but the ascent has been capped by the recent rise in the Dollar and caution ahead of the US PCE price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is due to be released on Friday.
* Copper prices fell amid ongoing demand concerns. For agricultural commodities, the ascent in cocoa prices remains noteworthy.
* USOIL inched higher above $81.50, amid fresh supply concerns.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 27th March 2024.

Market Recap – Yen on Intervention watch.



Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* A slip in risk appetite and a solid 5-year auction gave Treasuries a little boost yesterday with yields ending modestly lower.
* Profit taking on the strong gains for the quarter, and indeed record highs last week, and some tax loss selling weighed.
* Wall Street ended with small losses. The NASDAQ fell -0.42%, with the S&P500 off -0.28%, while the Dow dipped -0.08%.
* The US consumer confidence undershot assumptions and joined a Michigan sentiment down-tick to 76.5 from 76.9 in February and a 30-month high of 79.0 in January. All the surveys face headwinds from high mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and recession fears.
* The US durables report slightly beat estimates thanks to a restrained 3.3%.
* Data showed that industrial profits in China jumped 10.2% in the first 2 months of the year, but signs of an ongoing recovery means there is a lower chance of further stimulus. China officials also seem to have tightened their grip on the currency once again.
* Japan officials have also engaged in some verbal intervention over the past week, but that didn’t prevent the Yen from hitting a 34 year low against the Dollar.
* Italy sold about 12.5% of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA for about €650 million ($704 million) as part of Giorgia Meloni’s government plan to divest from the bailed-out lender.



Market Trends:

* Today, European stock futures are lower ahead of the ESI economic confidence reading and the 4-day Easter holiday weekend.
* US futures are in demand after a mixed close across Asia.
* The China bourses underperformed, Hang Seng & CSI 300 are down -1.4% and -1.2% respectively.
* Bond yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year Treasury rate down -0.6 bp at 4.23%, and the 10-year JGB rate down -1.5 bp.
* Bunds are outperforming, and the German 10-year rate has corrected -2.6 bp in early trade, as markets expect Spanish HICP numbers to confirm the downtrend in headline inflation.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex recovered to close slightly firmer at 104.10. It’s a fourth straight close over 104.
* The Yen is at 34-year low retesting once again the 152 high.
* Gold extended gains as the focus shifts to key US PCE numbers on Friday. Bullion is currently at $2179 after breaching $2200. Geopolitical risk, central bank buying, bond rally and rate cut expectations solidifying, all added to the strength in gold.
* USOIL steady for a 2nd day in a row below $81.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 28th March 2024.

The US Dollar Strengthens As Economists Believe The ECB Will Struggle To “Hold”.




* Early this morning, the Fed Governor advised “there is no rush to cut rates” and “the data within the upcoming months” will be vital.
* The US Dollar Index rises to a 1-month high. The value of the USD will largely be based on today’s data on economic growth, consumer sentiment and pending home sales.
* Dollar and index traders are closely monitoring tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index which analysts expect will read 0.3%. A higher inflation reading can potentially pressure stocks and support the Dollar.
* Strong declines in NVIDIA and Netflix stocks pressured the NASDAQ on Wednesday. Though, buyers entered late in the session to boost the overall price.

EURUSD

The latest comments from members of the Federal Reserve are supporting the US Dollar. The forward guidance between members of the Federal Reserve is mainly not aligned. The Chairman advises the Fed does not need much more proof for the regulator to feel comfortable reducing rates. Whereas the Fed Governor, Mr Waller, advises there is no rush, and he wants to see a few months of data before determining the next move. Therefore, the upcoming inflation and employment data will remain vital and could even push back rate hikes further. According to economists, the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate on 3 occasions this year, but the timing of the first cut is less certain and may change depending on upcoming data.

A positive factor for traders is that EURUSD exchange is not witnessing conflicting currencies. The US Dollar is trading 0.12% higher while the Euro is declining against most currencies. The Euro is trading 0.06% lower against the Pound and the Canadian Dollar and 0.16% lower against the Japanese Yen. Yesterday, the head of the Bank of Italy, Mr Cipollone, said that the authorities were confident that inflation would return to the target of 2.0% by mid–2025. He also supports the lower of interest rate and will use this as a basis for adjusting monetary policy. The Euro is generally under pressure as investors believe the European Central Bank will struggle to avoid cuts if the Fed decide to delay their adjustments.

The US Dollar will be influenced by four major economic data releases. The US Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales and Consumer Sentiment Index. If these read higher than expectations with the weekly unemployment claims dropping, the US Dollar is likely to witness further support. However, investors should note the main release will be tomorrow’s Core PCE Price Index. Traders are expecting no major news for Europe and volatility levels may fall tomorrow as European markets are closed for Easter.



Technical analysis currently points towards a continued downward trend. The price is trading below the neutral on the RSI and below the 75-Bar EMA. However, investors should note this will also be dependent on upcoming US data.

USA100

The price of the USA100 was under pressure throughout the whole US session but was saved by an increased volume of buyers late in the session. However, a positive point is the components held onto their value. Even though the index fell in value, only 28% of the components declined. Investors will now turn their attention towards tomorrow’s PCE Price Index and the upcoming earnings season which will start in mid-April.

The price is now trading slightly above the Moving Averages but slightly below the 50.00 on the RSI. Therefore, technical analysis remains at the “neutral” level and continues to indicate a larger price range. If today’s economic data is positive the stock market can witness confidence and support as this continues to indicate a soft landing. Though, if the data is too strong, it could also trigger a hawkish Fed which is known to be negative for the USA100.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 29th March 2024.

GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long?



* The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose.
* The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple.
* The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen.
* The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index.

GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long?

The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario.

The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index.



Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500.

Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike.

USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains!

The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices.

The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st April 2024.

Strong Chinese Economic Data Prompts Demand for US Stocks!


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

* The Chinese economy and sentiment improve for the first time since September 2023. Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, beating expectations. Higher Chinese data improves the global risk appetite towards stocks.
* Stocks trade higher, what is more, the SNP500, and Dow Jones again renew their all-time highs. The latest Chinese data and a PCE Price Index in line with expectations support price growth.
* The price of Gold and the US Dollar Index are both on the rise, which is a concern for investors. The market’s price movement gives no clear indication of investor’s risk appetite.
* Apple is expected to confirm the Vision Pro Headset will be made available to global consumers in the summer months.

USA500 – Inflation, Earnings and Company News!

The USA500 starts the day with a moderate bullish price gap measuring 0.21% and continues trading 0.52% higher ever since. The price of the index is now trading at an all-time high and has risen more than 10.50% in 2024. The SNP500 has also been the best performing index in 2024 and has outperformed both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones? The question for traders is, will this continue?



A positive factor for the USA500 is the Federal Reserve and most global central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. The main factor which investors needed to see is that central banks were able to do so without triggering a significant economic contraction, which was achieved. Another positive factor is the Core PCE Price Index did not beat expectations, which was vital considering inflation over the past 2 months kept reading higher than previously thought.

However, some risks do remain which can make the path difficult for buyers. The price of Gold as well as the price of the US Dollar continue to rise. This occurrence indicates the market’s risk appetite and sentiment is lower than priced in the stock market. Another concern is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to indeed cut interest rates in July 2024 if inflation does not decline over the next 2 months.

Investors are closely watching the price of oil which is trading 13.50% higher in 2024 and at a 6-month high. If the price of Oil continues to rise and fails to fall back below $80.00 per barrel in the next two months, inflation will be difficult to reduce. As a result, the Fed may again push back a rate cut to July or September. Otherwise, the Fed may continue with a cut in June, but will advise less than 3 cuts for the remainder of the year.

So, what can save the SNP500 and stock market if the Fed chose not to cut and if inflation rises. The answer is the quarterly earnings reports scheduled for later this month and in May. Investors will mainly be focusing their attention on the following stocks:

1. Microsoft
2. Apple
3. NVIDIA
4. Alphabet
5. Amazon
6. Meta

The stock which is a concern for investors is Apple Stocks. Apple has received a large penalty from the EU and is now facing a lawsuit from the US. Shareholders will be keen to see what the board of directors have to say regarding this and how it will affect the earnings per share. Investors will also be keen to see the performance of the Apple Vision Pro Headset which was released in February. If the sales figure reads as expected or beats expectations, the demand for the stocks can rise regardless of the upcoming fines. Apple is also expected to announce that the product will be made available to global consumers later in the summer. Apple quarterly earnings will be released on May 2nd and Microsoft on April 23rd.

USA500 – Technical Analysis After Strong Chinese Economic Data

Over the past 3 trading days, the price of the USA500 has successfully been forming higher highs and higher lows. The price this morning saw strong momentum, which was also due to positive economic data from China. The Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations. Furthermore, technical indicators continue to indicate a higher price. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. In addition to this, delta statistics also indicate buyers are controlling the market. If the price again rises above $5,273.31, the breakout will further indicate upward price movement.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 2nd April 2024.

Market Recap – Inflation: Will be back?


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Treasuries were hit by stronger than expected ISM data and yields climbed sharply in a bear steepener. – US manufacturing unexpectedly expanded for the first time since September 2022 & input costs climbed.
* The latest ISM data indicates that the US economy continues to display strength despite elevated interest rates. This bodes well for the stock market, as it has the potential to fuel profit growth for businesses. However, it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
* Wall Street took its lumps to start Q2 amid the eroding Fed view and the pop in interest rates. The broader indexes closed with losses, though from fresh record highs last Thursday.
* FED: Expectations are moving toward fewer cuts this year as well, from the 3 that have been in for priced in much of 2024 to date, consistent with the FOMC’s dots, to 2, 1, or even none. A couple of key Fed officials, Waller and Bostic, have indicated their preferences for fewer than 3 cuts this year. Now there is a 61% chance of the Fed cutting rates in June.
* UK Nationwide house prices unexpectedly dropped -0.2% m/m in March, after rising 0.7% m/m in the previous month.



Market Trends:

* The Dow dropped -0.6% and the S&P 500 slid -0.2%. The NASDAQ managed a 0.11% rally.
* European stock futures are slightly higher in early trade, with the FTSE 100 outperforming. The Hang Seng rallied overnight, as Hong Kong’s markets re-opened after the extended holiday weekend and investors reacted to the better than expected Chinese PMI reports.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex climbed back over the 105 level thanks to the strength in the data, closing at 105.019 and hitting the highest closing level since mid-November. Underpinning * the move has been the hotter inflation data and resilient growth that have been shifting outlooks on the FOMC’s rate cutting trajectory, pushing back the timing of the first move toward July rather than June.
* The Yen was steady higher at 151.70. Focus is now fixed squarely on the BOJ’s bond-buying operation scheduled for Wednesday.
* Gold managed to hit a fresh peak at $2251.44 per ounce and a second close over $2200.
* USOIL breached 61.8% Fib. level since the September downleg, at $84.14. (Rising geopolitical risks in the ME & tighter supply from Mexico helping to buoy prices.)
* Bitcoin drifted back to $67k amid cooling demand for dedicated US ETFs and ebbing bets on looser Fed policy. – 10% down since $73,798 highs in mid-March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 3rd April 2024.

Market Recap – ‘Good News is Bad News’


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Rate cut hopes for the US are fading, which is weighing on stock markets. Bonds have found a footing, at least outside of the US, and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.4 bp, after the 10-year JGB corrected -1.3 bp.
* A rise in February JOLTS, albeit after a downward revision to January, and a better than expected factory report, exacerbated the sell off in longer dated Treasuries.
* Disappointing delivery news from Tesla, along with weakness in the health and retail sectors, weighed on sentiment.
* Rising geopolitical risks boosted Gold and Oil.
* Fed’s Mester(Voter) & Daly (Voter): They still see 3 cuts this year, which helped trim losses. Mester stated that she will not vote for a cut at the May meeting given the lack of sufficient data but said she would not rule out action in June.
* China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March. Yuan declined despite data.
* Today: EU Inflation & Core, US ADP, US ISM Services and Fed Powell speech. OPEC ministerial meeting is also on tap and it is expected to confirm current output cut targets.



Market Trends:

* Wall Street slumped as well on JOLTS and hence the Fed outlook and the rise in yields with the major indexes falling over -1.0% before paring losses. The Dow finished with a -1.0% drop, while the S&P500 was down -0.72% and the NASDAQ -0.95% lower.
* Stocks have sold off across Asia, with Hang Seng and ASX underperforming and losing more than -1%. US futures are also in the red, while European futures are narrowly mixed.

Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex climbed to hit 105.10, but it lost traction and slid to close at 104.52 with a pick up in downside momentum after the Fedspeak. Monday’s 105.019 close was the first with a 105 handle since mid-November.
* The AUD & NZD (often used as liquid proxies for the CNH), are under pressure as a result of a stronger USD and a weaker CNH.
* Gold (+11% this year) surged to a new all-time peak at $2288 even as Fed rate cut bets were pared. Silver hit a 2-year high.
* USOIL was up 1.9% at $85.30 per barrel with additional support from expectations for rising demand.
* Bitcoin at $66.3K, under pressure for a 3rd day in a row.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th April 2024.

Market News – USD continues to decline; stock markets mixed.


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Powell wants to keep inflation expectations anchored at 2%. – Recent data have not “materially” changed the overall picture.
* Nothing new is added to the outlook, keeping the door open for several rate cuts this year, though Bostic continues to favor just one easing.
* The ISM services index slowed and prices paid softened, but the ADP solidly beat.
* JGB and Treasury yields have moved up overnight, with the US 10-year 1.8 bp higher on the day.
* Bunds are finding buyers though, with Eurozone spreads narrowing as peripherals outperform.
* Fed funds futures: implied rates are now about 50-50 for a June cut, with July showing about a 95% probability for the first cut. A 25 bp easing is not fully priced until September.
* Swiss inflation drops to just 1.0% y/y. Expectations had been for a slight uptick in the headline and the lower than expected number will justify the SNB’s decision to cut rates at the previous meeting, especially as the growth outlook remains subdued.
* The ECB asserts it won’t rely on the Federal Reserve’s actions to determine when to start reducing interest rates. However, economic trends in the US often swiftly affect other regions, impacting financing conditions, exchange rates, and various metrics such as inflation and trade.

[img]https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/qC63y1DfVZzHK.fRVlGXoQ--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTU0MDtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/9be72d50452b0d435c4fc7139829c98b[/img]
Long Shadow of the Fed Shows Limits of ECB Talk of Independence

Market Trends:

* Wall Street closed with a 0.23% advance in the NASDAQ, a 0.11% gain on the S&P500, and a -0.11% dip on the Dow.
* Stock markets traded mixed across Asia. Nikkei and ASX benefited while China bourses corrected though and the Hang Seng underperformed once again.
* European bourses are slightly in the red, US futures are higher, as markets continue to evaluate rate outlooks and growth prospects against the background of geopolitical risks.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex is below 104, in the wake of Powell’s comments along with the stronger than projected ADP which weighed on the markets, and Bostic’s comments.
* The Yen continues to consolidate as investors awaited cues from the BOJ. BOJ board member Sakurai said that the central bank is likely to wait until around October before mulling another interest rate hike.
* Gold remained stable after reaching a new all-time high, surpassing $2,300 per ounce. This surge was supported mainly by Powell.
* USOIL appeared ready for its 5th consecutive day of increases.
* Copper rose to its highest level since January 2023, driven by increasing supply risks and indications of heightened demand

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th April 2024.

Market News – NFP day; Geopolitics triggering a flight to safety!


Trading Leveraged Products is Risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

* Global Stocks fell ahead of today’s jobs report, which coupled with the rising geopolitical risks and the angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand.
* Treasuries climbed, the US Dollar ended near session highs and Oil rallied.
* Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a security cabinet meeting his country will operate against Iran and its proxies and will hurt those who seek to harm it. President Joe Biden told Netanyahu on a call that US support for his war would depend on new steps to protect civilians.
* Note: A direct conflict between Israel & Iran could restrict further Oil supply and hence could boost Oil above $100.
* Japan: BOJ Governor Ueda stoked bets about an additional interest rate hike later in the year, if the yen’s weakness affected the economy. FM Shunichi Suzuki repeated warnings that the government would take appropriate measures to support the currency. Meanwhile, former top currency diplomat Hiroshi Watanabe said earlier this week that the government likely won’t make a move unless the Yen plunges below 155 per dollar.



Financial Markets Performance:

* The USDIndex has rallied into the close from the session low of 103.92, finishing back at 104.12. But it was over 105 on Monday, the highest since November.
* The Yen extended a rally to hit a 2-week high. The currency experienced its most significant surge against the USD in nearly a month, prompting a retreat from levels that traders had anticipated might trigger intervention.
* Gold: The rising concerns over the situation in the Middle East have boosted haven demand for gold which climbed to another record peak over $2304 per ounce.
* USOIL jumped to $86.70 and UKOIL rose above $91 near its highest since October. Israel has increased preparations for potential retaliation by Tehran after Monday’s strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria, stoking fears of a wider regional conflict. OPEC kept global markets tight.
* Copper holds at 14-month highs.

Market Trends:

* Wall Street had a tough session and closed with steep losses of over -1%. The recent record peak on stocks have left the market ripe for profit taking too ahead of jobs.
* The NASDAQ dropped -1.4% and the Dow tumbled -1.36% with the S&P500 slumping -1.23%. Every S&P sector closed with a loss, with only energy preventing a complete rout in the Dow.
* Nikkei drifted more than 2% putting it on course for its worst week since December 2022 as tech shares slid on Wall Street’s lead. – The biggest driver for the Nikkei’s dip is technical.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th April 2024.

Treasury Yields Climb and Investors Anxiously Await March’s Inflation Reading!



* Economists expect inflation to rise from 3.2% to 3.4%, but the monthly incline to be lower than the previous month.
* The Dow Jones sees its worst week of 2024, but stocks rebound on positive employment data.
* The US economy added a further 303,000 more employed individuals and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.
* The US Dollar witnesses “mixed” price movement as investors wait for inflation confirmation and clarity on interest rates.

USA500 – Bond Yields Rise 50 Points Potentially Pressuring US Stocks!

The SNP500 is the index which is likely to be most influenced by this week’s earnings data. This is due to the index’s exposure to banking stocks. The price of the USA500 is technically still forming lower lows and lower highs which indicates a downward trend. However, corrective waves remain strong which indicate demand remains. Currently, the price is trading below momentum indications and below the “neutral” on oscillators. Therefore, the price is currently witnessing a weak “sell” signal. However, if the price drops below $5,197.16, indicators are likely to signal a stronger bearish signal.



To obtain further indication of the possible future price movement, investors will also be monitoring the global investor sentiment. Asian stocks are currently trading slightly lower, but the European Cash Open is yet to take place. If both Asian and European stocks decline, this could potentially back a low-risk appetite, which is negative for the USA500.

The employment data on Friday, reassured investors that the US economy remains strong and resilient to the current monetary policy. The NFP data read 43% higher than market expectations and average salaries rose more than the previous month. On the one hand, the data is positive as it indicates demand will remain high as will company earnings. However, on the other hand, if inflation also rises, the Fed will be unlikely to adjust interest rates.

Therefore, Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index will be key. If inflation reads higher than 3.4%, the stock market can come under immense pressure as the Fed are likely to become more hawkish. This is something which can already be seen from today’s rise in bond yields. The US 10-Year Treasury yields added 0.050% which is known to apply pressure to the stock market. If inflation reads in line with expectations, the release will be neutral. Furthermore, analysts expect the Core Inflation rate to fall from 3.8% to 3.7%.

EURUSD – ECB To Indicate Next Cut!

The Euro is witnessing “mixed” price movement depending on the currency pair. Against the US Dollar the exchange rate is moving sideways, and the key price can be seen at 1.08426. Both the Euro and the US Dollar are likely to witness volatility throughout the week. The Euro due to the European Central Bank’s rate decision and press conference. The US Dollar due to Consumer and Producer Inflation.

Some economists believe the ECB may deem it too early to cut interest rates, but the general opinion is that the time to cut is very near for the ECB. Therefore, investors will closely be monitoring the President’s comments in the press conference on Thursday. The EU’s inflation rate has fallen to 2.4% and is the lowest amongst the G7. In addition to this, many EU economies have been witnessing prolonged stagnation and therefore will be keen to stimulate economic growth. The US Dollar on the other hand will primarily be determined by the CPI and PPI (producer inflation).



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.