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CryptoNews of the Week



- Concerns about the crypto winter have not dampened investor interest in the industry. This is stated in the analytical report of Bank of America (BofA). “Customer engagement continues to grow. The focus continues to be on the rapid development of blockchain technology.” BofA believes regulatory clarity is critical to corporate and institutional outreach. Many are currently refraining from taking action until a comprehensive legal framework is in place.
Some participants in the BofA survey recalled that the most innovative projects came from previous market downturns. The low points of the cycle are "likely beneficial for the development of the ecosystem in the long run," they added.

- Cryptocurrency payments will become a reality in the future, but they are currently not economically efficient. This was stated in an interview with Cointelegraph by one of the directors of American Express, Gonzalo Pérez del Arco. According to him, crypto payments are not relevant for a number of reasons at the moment, including high transaction costs and the unwillingness of merchants to accept digital assets.

- The recession in the cryptocurrency market will last for about 18 more months, and the industry will see the first signs of recovery after the easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. This was stated by the head and founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptobank Mike Novogratz in an interview with New York Magazine. “I hope we have already seen the worst. I would be more confident about this if I knew what inflation would be like in the next two quarters. [...] I think the Fed will have to abandon the rate hike by the fall, and I believe that will make people calm down and start building again,” said the head of Galaxy Digital.
According to Novogratz, the crisis has changed people's attitudes towards high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. He noted that the past few months have shown the industry's dependence on leverage, which no one knew about. And it will take time now for the bankruptcy of weak players and the sale of collapsed assets. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, the situation is similar to the global financial crisis of 2008, followed by a wave of consolidation in the investment and banking industries.

- Mining companies in need of liquidity in Q3 are able to continue to exert downward pressure on the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. This is the conclusion reached by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou, Bloomberg writes. According to the expert's calculations, public mining companies account for about 20% of the hash rate. Many of them sold bitcoins to cover operating expenses and service loans. Due to the more limited access to capital, private miners took similar steps as well. “Unloading will continue in Q3, if the profitability of production does not improve. This was already evident in May and June. There is a risk that the process will continue,” the strategist believes.
According to Panigirtzoglou, the cost of mining 1 BTC dropped from $18,000-$20,000 at the beginning of the year to about $15,000 in June due to the introduction of more energy-efficient equipment.

- The first cryptocurrency is “technically oversold”, if you look at the current price in the context of the exponential growth in wallet activity and an increase in the number of use cases. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of the SkyBridge Capital investment fund. The hedge fund manager advised investors to evaluate bitcoin in retrospect. With this approach, the asset will turn out to be "very cheap due to excess leverage, which is worth taking advantage of."
Scaramucci was philosophical about the collapse of Terra, which he had supported, as well as Three Arrows Capital's liquidity problems. “I have seen such mistakes made several times,” he explained. According to the financier, during periods of "easy money", when new industries or technologies are being formed, young representatives of the sector "tend to lose relevance."

- Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen doubts that the forecasts for a high BTC rate for 2023 can come true. In particular, he spoke about the forecast of venture capital investor Tim Draper, according to which the price of bitcoin could grow by more than 1000% from current levels and reach $250,000.
“I used to believe that BTC would be above $100,000 by 2023, but now I am skeptical about this idea. Especially after the Fed's policy has changed so much over the past six months,” Cowen wrote. "I also look at other things, like social media statistics, and I see that the number of people interested in cryptocurrencies is in a downtrend. If it is difficult for people to buy gasoline, it will be even more difficult to buy bitcoin.”
Instead of a huge rally, Cowen predicts an uninteresting BTC market over the next two years: “I think the bear market will end this year, and then the accumulation phase will begin, as in 2015 and 2019. Then there will be slow preparations for the next bitcoin halving, and the Fed may lower interest rates due to the victory over inflation during this period.”

- According to the cryptanalytic platform CryptoQuant, most cyclical indicators (Bitcoin Puell Multiple, MVRV, SOPR and the MPI BTC Miner Position Index) indicate that bitcoin is close to the bottom. The readings of these indicators are based on a historical pattern that has preceded an uptrend several times. Indicators also suggest that bitcoin is currently undervalued, signaling an imminent rally. A significant amount of unrealized losses confirms this forecast.

- A crypto strategist with aka Dave the Wave, who had previously predicted the May collapse of bitcoin in 2021, expects to see a rapid increase in the BTC rate in the coming years. He uses a logarithmic growth curve (LGC) model and believes that BTC can grow by 1100% within 4 years and reach $260,000. In the short term, Dave the Wave predicts the possibility of bitcoin rising to $25,000.

- Robert Kiyosaki predicted the collapse of the financial markets in autumn 2021. In his opinion, due to the actions of the US financial regulators, the value of all assets, including bitcoin, gold and securities, should have collapsed. Now, the author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad predicts another 95% drop in bitcoin and is waiting for bitcoin to drop to $1,100. And when “the losers capitulate and leave the market,” according to the economist, he will replenish his stocks of the first cryptocurrency.
Recall that Kiyosaki has previously repeatedly stated that the US dollar is dying, and called for buying more BTC, gold and silver, because, according to him, these assets help to ride out hard times.

- It is possible that the long-standing dispute over whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities will be put to an end. In an interview with CNBC, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler stated that, according to his ideas, bitcoin meets all the characteristics of a commodity. The head of the SEC noted that his opinion concerns only bitcoin, and he is not going to discuss other cryptocurrencies.
A similar view was expressed a month earlier by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam, who also said that bitcoin and ethereum are commodities.
The cryptocurrency community enthusiastically supported the position: “This makes it almost impossible to change this classification in the future,” digital asset manager Eric Weiss tweeted.

- Yifan He, CEO of Chinese blockchain company Red Date Technology, published an article comparing cryptocurrencies to pyramid schemes. He mentioned the May collapse of the Terra project, when the LUNA crypto asset fell to almost zero in just a few days, and the UST token lost its peg to the dollar.
In his opinion, all crypto assets are similar to a Ponzi scheme, it’s just that each has its own level of risk, depending on the market capitalization and the number of users. He added that he has never had a cryptocurrency wallet, has not bought cryptocurrencies and does not intend to buy them in the future. Even if digital assets become regulated by governments, this is unlikely to increase their value, He said.
The businessman believes that the authorities of El Salvador and the Central African Republic (CAR), who decided to legalize bitcoin, are in serious need of basic financial education. According to He, the leaders of these states put entire countries at risk, unless their original intention was to fraud their own citizens.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in June 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit in June was received by a client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1620XXX, whose profit amounted to 24,665 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to trades in gold (XAU/USD).

The second place in the rating of the most successful traders of the month was occupied by their compatriot, account No. 1552XXX, who earned 11,405 USD on transactions in the USD/JPY currency pair.

The third place on the June podium went to the representative of East Asia (account No. 1440XXX), whose result of 10,904 USD was also achieved through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- in CopyTrading, the “veteran” KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 signal is again noticeable, which has shown a profit of 345% over the period since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of about 67%. At the same time, it should be noted that this drawdown occurred quite a long time ago, in mid-October 2021. Other signals from this provider include KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K (for 422 days of its life, the profit on it was 157% with a drawdown of just over 45%) and KennyFXPRO - The Cannon Ball. This signal appeared on the CopyTrading showcase 90 days ago, the trading style is non-aggressive, the profit is moderate, about 25%, but the drawdown is less than 7%. Favorite pairs are still the same: AUD/NZD (58%), NZD/CAD (36%) and AUD/CAD (16%).
Quite a few interesting signals have recently appeared among startups. Here are just a few of them: TraderViet9999 (profit 39% / max drawdown 7% / life days15), Ăn ít no lâu dài (34%/11%/49), BSTAR (46%/14%/132), Tịnh Tâm -CN88 (65%/20%/10). JFX TRADING - GOLD SIGNAL (76%/23%/16), Tịnh Tâm- CN88 (64%/20%/10). These signals have quite impressive results. However, it should be understood that they have been achieved thanks to very aggressive trading. Therefore, if someone decides to subscribe, be sure to take the risk factors into account. One of the main factors in this case is a very short lifetime of these signals.

- The TOP-3 in the PAMM service has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. In 521 days on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account, they increased their capital by 118%. Also, in the top three remain: the account TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3, which has shown a profit of 89% in 453 days, and the account NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated a 76% return since June 11, 2021.
There are two more accounts that we have paid attention to. The first one, COEX.Investment – Treis, has shown a profit of 39% from October 31, 2021. The second one, Ultimate.Duo-Safe Haven, has started relatively recently, at the end of February. It has made a profit of about 29% during this time. The maximum drawdown on all five listed accounts is quite moderate, about 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission amount, 24,700 USD, was credited in June to a partner from Southeast Asia, account No. 1371XXX;
- next is a partner from South Asia, account No.1259XXX, who received 4,981 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from South Asia, account No. 1565ХХХ, who received 4,930 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: The Dollar Is Gaining Strength Again

The EUR/USD pair moved in a sideways channel of 1.0500-1.0600 for a week and a half. However, it is clear that neither investors nor speculators are interested in such stagnation. But some kind of trigger is needed to break out of it.

The last meeting of the G7 leaders and the NATO summit did not have any particularly loud statements. At both events, a desire was expressed to continue helping Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia, and the NATO bloc was replenished with two new members, Sweden and Finland. But these results were not enough to somehow influence the quotes of the dollar and the euro.

The trigger for the strengthening of the dollar, which forced the EUR/USD pair to go south on Tuesday, June 28 and break through the lower limit of the channel the next day, was the growth in demand for protective assets amid concerns about the prospects for the world economy. And taking into account the fact that the American currency has recently acted as a protective asset, the scales have tilted in its direction.

Speaking at the annual forum of the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that “inflation expectations in the Eurozone are much higher than before”, that “we are unlikely to return to conditions of low inflation soon”, and that the regulator “will go as far as necessary to reduce inflation to the target of 2%”. Christine Lagarde confirmed that the ECB intends to raise its key interest rate by 0.25% at its meeting on July 21 in order to achieve this goal. However, according to market participants, such a modest step is unlikely to have any serious effect. And the next meeting of the Bank will take place only in autumn, on September 08. So, most likely, inflation will continue to grow during this period.

The speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who participated in the ECB forum as a colleague and guest of honor, was quite different in tone from the words of Christine Lagarde. The American assured the audience that the US economy is in a good position to cope with the active tightening of monetary policy, which is being implemented by his department.

The divergence between the ECB's careful monetary policy and the hawkish Fed has always been interpreted by the market in favor of the dollar. The same happened this time as well, and the EUR/USD pair continued its fall.

The European currency was slightly helped by weak macro data from the US in the second half of June 30. The impetus for a temporary rise in the pair was the release of data on GDP, which turned out to be less than expected, falling by 1.6% instead of the expected 1.5%. In addition, statistics showed a slowdown in economic growth rates from 5.5% to 3.5%. Data on basic spending on personal consumption in the United States did not live up to expectations either. Data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States turned out to be noticeably worse than expected. Thus, the number of initial requests should have been reduced from 233K to 218K. However, their number decreased to only 231 thousand. The situation is similar with repeated requests, which decreased from 1.331K to just 1.328K.

However, all of the above negative factors provided only temporary support to the European currency. Fixing quarterly profit on the dollar did not help it much, and it went on the offensive again on Friday. The publication of data on inflation in the Eurozone, which accelerated from 8.1% to 8.6%, only speeded up the flight of investors to safe assets. As a result, the pair fixed a local bottom at 1.0364 and ended the five-day period at 1.0425.

The votes of experts at the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 01, are divided as follows: 35% side with the bulls, 50% - with the bears, and 15% are neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 75% are red, 10% are green, and 15% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 100% on the red side. The nearest resistance is located in the zone 1.0470-1.0500, then the zone 1.0600-1.0615 follows, in case of success the bulls will try to rise to the zone 1.0750-1.0770, the next target is 1.0800. Except for 1.0400, the bears' task number 1 is to break through the support zone 1.0350-1.0364, formed by the lows of May 13 and July 01. If successful, they will move on to storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, below is only 20-year-old support and the cherished goal, 1:1 parity.

This coming week, July 04 is a public holiday in the USA: the country celebrates Independence Day. Statistics on retail sales in the Eurozone will be released on Wednesday, July 06. The publication on the same day of the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector and the minutes of the June meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) are also noteworthy. A similar minute of the ECB meeting and the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private and non-farm sectors and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will be published on Thursday, July 07. And another portion of data from the US labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such important indicators as the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Similarities and Differences with EUR/USD

GBP /USD showed similar dynamics to EUR/USD last week. The reasons for the ups and downs of quotes are also similar. Therefore, it makes no sense to list them again. The pair moved clamped in the side channel 1.2165-1.2325 for a week and a half, and then flew down on June 28. A breakdown of support at 1.2100 increased bearish pressure, and it recorded a two-week low at 1.1975. This was followed by a correction to the north, and the pair finished at 1.2095;

Despite the fact that the euro and the pound behaved similarly against the dollar, there are still differences between them. The position of the Eurozone economy is complicated by a heavy dependence on Russian natural energy, the supply of which is limited due to sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The situation is gradually improving: it became known that the United States bypassed Russia in gas supplies to Europe in June, for the first time. However, the final solution of the energy problem is still far away.

Unlike the EU, the UK's dependence on Russian energy is minimal. However, the strengthening of the British currency is hampered by political instability. Prime Minister Boris Johnson already survived a vote of no confidence in June, with several lawmakers from his own Conservative Party voting against him. In addition, after the by-elections, the party lost two seats in the UK Parliament. Problems associated with Brexit also add nervousness. The British pound came under additional pressure after MPs approved a bill allowing ministers to cancel part of the Northern Ireland protocol.

As for the country's economy, according to some experts, inflation in the United Kingdom will continue to grow and may exceed 11% by November.

At the moment, 60% of experts believe that the pair GBP/USD will try to consistently test the support of 1.1975 and 1.1932 in the near future. 40%, on the contrary, are waiting for a breakdown of the resistance at 1.2100 and further to the north. Among the trend indicators on D1, the power ratio is 100:0% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is slightly less: 75% indicate a fall, the remaining 25% have turned their eyes to the east. Strong support lies at 1.2000, followed by lows of July 01 at 1.1975 and of June 14 at 1.1932. The bears' medium-term target may be the March 2020 low of 1.1409. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325, 1.2400-1.2430, 1.2460, then the targets in the area of 1.2500 and 1.2600 follow.

As for the macroeconomic calendar for the UK, we advise you to pay attention to Tuesday, July 05, when the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is expected. The composite PMI index and the index of business activity in the UK services sector will be published on the same day, and the index of business activity in the construction sector of this country a day later.

USD/JPY: Just a Breather or a Change in Trend?



USD/JPY hit a new 24-year high last week once again, climbing to a high of 136.99 on Wednesday June 29. However, the difference from the previous high of June 22 is less than 30 points, and the two-week chart already looks more like a sideways channel than an uptrend. Perhaps the strength of the bulls has dried up and they, at least, need a break.

And perhaps, finally, the long-awaited dream of Japanese importers and housewives will come true, and the yen will go on the offensive, regaining the status of a popular safe-haven currency? It's possible. But not guaranteed. The difference between the super-dove monetary policy of the Central Bank of Japan and the distinctly hawkish monetary policy of the US Central Bank is too great.

Most analysts (50%) still expect the pair to move down at least to the 129.50-131.00 zone. 30% of experts vote for the fact that the pair will once again try to renew the maximum and rise above 137.00, and 20% believe that the pair will take a breather, moving in the side channel 134.50-137.00. For indicators on D1, the picture is very different from the opinion of experts. For oscillators, 65% are colored green (of which 10% are in the overbought zone), the remaining 35% have taken a neutral position. For trend indicators, 65% point north as well, and only 35% point south. The nearest support is located at 134.50-134.75, followed by zones and levels at 134.00, 133.50, 133.00, 132.30, 131.50, 129.70-130.30, 128.60 and 128.00. Apart from overcoming the immediate resistance at 136.00-136.35 and taking the height of 137.00, it is difficult to determine further targets for the bulls. Most often, such round levels as 137.00, 140.00 and 150.00 appear in the forecasts. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in the last 3 months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August or early September.

No important events, be it the release of macroeconomic statistics or political factors, are expected in Japan this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Will Bitcoin Drop to $1,100? We look at the US Federal Reserve.

The battle for $20,000 continued throughout the second half of June. The BTC/USD pair fell to $17,940, then rose to $21,940. It should be noted that $20,000 is historically the most important level for the main cryptocurrency. Suffice it to recall the catastrophic crash of December 2017, when bitcoin approached this mark, reaching a height of $19,270, and then collapsed by 84%. Many experts expect something similar now, predicting a further fall of another 50-80% for the BTC/USD pair. And Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicts an even more powerful collapse of bitcoin, by 95%, to $1,100.

In the meantime (Friday evening, July 01), the coin is trading in the $19,440 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market at this moment is $0.876 trillion ($0.960 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, like a week ago, is in the Extreme Fear zone at around 11 points out of 100 possible.

If you look at the charts, you can see that the bears had a clear advantage over the past week. And, in fairness, we note that bitcoin itself is not really to blame for this. It's all about the strengthening of the dollar, which is growing due to the rise in rates and the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Central Bank. In such a situation, investors prefer to get rid of risky assets by purchasing US currency. Global stock markets are under pressure from sellers, the MSCI World and MSCI EM indices are going down, showing the situation in developed and emerging markets, respectively. Among the developed markets, the main pressure fell on the European sites, but did not bypass he US either: the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite, with which BTC is in direct correlation, are also moving south.

Additional downward pressure on the quotes of the first cryptocurrency is exerted by mining companies in need of liquidity. According to JPMorgan bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, this situation will continue in Q3 of 2022. According to the expert's calculations, public mining companies account for about 20% of the hash rate. Many of them sold bitcoins to cover operating expenses and service loans. Due to the more limited access to capital, private miners took similar steps as well. “Unloading will continue in Q3, if the profitability of production does not improve. This was already evident in May and June. There is a risk that the process will continue,” the JPMorgan strategist believes.

According to Bloomberg, the cost of mining 1 BTC from $18,000-$20,000 at the beginning of the year dropped to about $15,000 in June due to the introduction of more energy-efficient equipment. However, it is not yet clear whether this will be enough for the stable functioning of the miners.

The recession in the cryptocurrency market will last for about 18 more months, and the industry will see the first signs of recovery after the easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. This was stated by the head and founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank Mike Novogratz in an interview with New York Magazine. “I hope we have already seen the worst. I would be more confident about this if I knew what inflation would be like in the next two quarters. [...] I think the Fed will have to abandon the rate hike by the fall, and I believe that will make people calm down and start building again,” said the head of Galaxy Digital.

According to Novogratz, the crisis has changed people's attitudes towards high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. He noted that the past few months have shown the industry's dependence on leverage, which no one knew about. And it will take time now for the bankruptcy of weak players and the sale of collapsed assets. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, the situation is similar to the global financial crisis of 2008, followed by a wave of consolidation in the investment and banking industries.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen doubts that the forecasts for a high BTC rate for 2023 can come true. In particular, he spoke about the forecast of venture capital investor Tim Draper, according to which the price of bitcoin could grow by more than 1000% from current levels and reach $250,000.

“I used to believe that BTC would be above $100,000 by 2023, but now I am skeptical about this idea. Especially after the Fed's policy has changed so much over the past six months,” Cowen wrote. "I also look at other things, like social media statistics, and I see that the number of people interested in cryptocurrencies is in a downtrend. If it is difficult for people to buy gasoline, it will be even more difficult to buy bitcoin.”

Instead of a huge rally, Cowen predicts an uninteresting BTC market over the next two years: “I think the bear market will end this year, and then the accumulation phase will begin, as in 2015 and 2019. Then there will be slow preparations for the next bitcoin halving, and the Fed may lower interest rates due to the victory over inflation during this period.”

It is clear that many forecasts depend on the models, indicators and other analysis tools used. For example, we wrote a week ago how the creator of The Daily Gwei, Anthony Sassano, and the co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, criticized the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, on the basis of which a popular analyst aka PlanB issued his forecasts. Following criticism, PlanB has unveiled a chart of not one, but five different forecasting models. Indeed, S2F showed an overly optimistic view. The most accurate picture was given by estimates based on the complexity and costs of mining the first cryptocurrency.

Another analyst named Dave the Wave uses a logarithmic growth curve (LGC) model and believes that BTC can grow by 1100% within 4 years and reach $260,000. In the short term, Dave the Wave predicts the possibility of bitcoin rising to $25,000.

According to the cryptanalytic platform CryptoQuant, most cyclical indicators (Bitcoin Puell Multiple, MVRV, SOPR and the MPI BTC Miner Position Index) indicate that bitcoin is close to the bottom. The readings of these indicators are based on a historical pattern that has preceded an uptrend several times. Indicators also suggest that bitcoin is currently undervalued, signaling an imminent rally. A significant amount of unrealized losses confirms this forecast.

Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital investment fund, also said that the first cryptocurrency is “technically oversold”. He made this conclusion by analyzing the current BTC price in the context of an exponential growth in wallet activity and an increase in the number of use cases. At the same time, the hedge fund manager advised investors to evaluate bitcoin in retrospect. With this approach, the asset will turn out to be "very cheap due to excess leverage, which is worth taking advantage of."

We talked at the end of the previous review about another “forecasting model” presented by the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. “My advice is to stop looking at charts and enjoy your life. If you have invested in BTC, your investment is safe, its value will rise immeasurably after the end of the bear market. The main thing is patience,” the head of state wrote.

And now Yifan He, CEO of Chinese blockchain company Red Date Technology, has responded to this advice. He compared cryptocurrencies to financial pyramids and stated that the authorities of El Salvador and the Central African Republic (CAR), who decided to legalize bitcoin, are in serious need of basic education in finance. According to He, the leaders of these states put entire countries at risk, unless their original intention was to fraud their own citizens. It is not yet known whether Naib Bukele was offended by such words. We will follow the news.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

The first draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on July 4, 2022. It was online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

Draw No. 1 included tickets credited to NordFX clients from March 01 to June 30, 2022. There were 54 prizes for a total of $20,000.

According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

The next draws will take place on October 06, 2022 (tickets accrued from March 01 to September 30, 2022, prize fund $20,000), and on January 04, 2023 (tickets accrued from March 01 to December 31, 2022, the prize fund $60,000).

You can enter the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several cash prizes, including two super prizes of $10,000 each, at any time. It is enough to have a Pro account at NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater the chances of becoming a winner. Terms of participation are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- The record decline in the price of bitcoin in June practically took the rest of the “market tourists” out of the game, leaving only hodlers “at the front”. These are the conclusions made by Glassnode analysts. In the context of monthly dynamics, the situation was worse only in 2011. The number of daily active addresses has dropped from over 1 million in November to the current 870,000.
The outflow of bitcoin from centralized exchanges has emptied reserves to levels last seen in July 2018. Monthly rates reached 150,000 BTC (5-6% of the total) in June. The decline in exchange reserves is complemented by the indicator of “illiquid supply”. In June, it rose to a record 223,000 BTC since July 2017.
Aggressive accumulation of coins is observed among so-called shrimps (balances less than 1 BTC) and whales (over 10,000 BTC). The monthly coin accumulation rate was the first to reach 60,460 BTC (0.32% of the market supply), which is higher than the previous record of 52,100 BTC in December 2017. As for whales, they withdrew 8.99 million BTC from exchanges. In June, the rate reached 140,000 BTC, the second result in five years.

- Deutsche Bank strategists believe that the arguments for bitcoin as “digital gold” have fallen apart. Cryptocurrency has not become a safe haven amid falling stock markets, physical gold “has behaved better” in this regard.
In their opinion, bitcoin is more like diamonds, a “high-market asset” that relies mainly on marketing. They recalled that the largest player in the market, De Beers, managed to change consumer attitudes towards precious stones with an advertising campaign in the 1950s. “By selling an idea rather than a product, they have created a solid foundation for the $72 billion a year industry that has dominated for the past 80 years. What is true for diamonds is true for many goods and services, including bitcoin,” the experts said.
Deutsche Bank specialists believe that the price of bitcoin can recover to the level of $28,000 by the end of 2022. This rise will be associated with a rally in the US stock market as cryptocurrencies correlate increasingly with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices. These benchmarks will recover to their January levels by the end of the year, holding bitcoin in their wake.

- Former hedge fund manager Cramer & Co and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer believes the US Fed has won a "remarkable victory" in the fight against cryptocurrencies. “There is a front in the war against inflation with the Fed's outstanding victory: it's a battle against financial speculation. [...] The work on destroying cryptocurrencies is almost complete, but they don't seem to know about it yet,” he said.
According to Cramer, digital assets do not protect investors from anything, and the Fed needs to continue to fight inflation, especially in the issue of wages.

- The financier Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has admitted that the current market situation is just the middle of a bear cycle for bitcoin. The investor, who became the prototype of the hero of the movie "The Big Short", believes that the first cryptocurrency can continue to fall. «Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there,” wrote Burry.
Recall that, according to Arcane Research researchers, the potential for a decrease in the price of bitcoin remains until the level of $10,350.

- The worst of the bear market may be behind us as the strong players in the crypto industry “rescue” the weak ones to contain the “infection”. This was stated by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. The specialist could have in mind the interest of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in buying the BlockFi landing platform. The media also mentioned the online broker Robinhood as a target for the takeover. Previously, the FTX exchange supported the cryptocurrency broker Voyager Digital. The expert mentioned the high rates of venture financing in May-June as an additional factor for optimism.
Panigirtzoglou also added that "the echoes of the deleveraging process will continue for some time yet," citing the default of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.

- Crypto trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that the market will face an exhaustion of sellers, and long-term investors will have the opportunity to purchase BTC in a price range that offers the maximum reward. “Historically, the 200-week moving average has been considered a bottom indicator for BTC. Things may be a little different in the current cycle. Instead of bottoming out at the SMA200, bitcoin could form a macro range below it. In fact, anything below will represent a peak buying opportunity,” wrote Rekt Capital.
The trader noted that while bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend, the prerequisites for a new bull cycle will eventually open up: “Bitcoin may still be in the acceleration phase downtrend, and it will precede the stage of multi-month consolidation, followed by the stage of a new upward macro trend.”

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort believes that investing in bitcoin can protect investors' funds from inflation in the long run. “If you look beyond the 24-month horizon, you can definitely make money if you're lucky. If you take a three- or five-year period, I will be shocked if you do not make money, because the basic principles of bitcoin are unshakable,” he said, explaining that the supply of the first cryptocurrency is limited to 21 million digital coins, and inflation in the world continues to grow.
Belfort believes that bitcoin is now behaving like a tech stock, correlating with the Nasdaq index. However, investments by institutional investors in the first cryptocurrency cannot yet be called large-scale, since bitcoin is still in its infancy. For an extensive influx of institutional money into the crypto-currency sector, well-designed regulation of crypto-assets is necessary.
Recall that earlier Jordan Belfort was convicted of fraud related to the securities market. His memoir inspired director Martin Scorsese to create the famous film The Wolf of Wall Street.

- Charles Erith, CEO of ByteTree investment company, believes that bitcoin and gold will be important components of investment portfolios for many years to come. Not because they are guaranteed to increase in price, but because they work as insurance against mistakes in an era of inflation. However, according to the financier, a lot depends on the policy of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks.

- The cost of bitcoin will fall under the pressure of the American factor in the coming months. The US economy is entering a recession, so capital will leave risky assets. This is the opinion of Timothy Peterson, investment manager from Cane Island Alternative Advisors. According to his calculations, the probability of a recession in the US has risen to 70% and the BTC price may collapse by 20% or even 40% by the end of summer.
The expert recalled that he had already predicted the continuation of the negative trend in the crypto market, and in the end he was right. The quarter turned out to be the worst for bitcoin in the last ten years.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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EUR/USD: One Step to 1.0000



We have repeatedly written about the dollar's desire to achieve parity with the euro 1:1. But we did not expect that this could happen so quickly: the EUR/USD pair found a local bottom at the level of 1.0071 on Friday, July 08. Only 71 points remained until 1.0000. The last time it was so low was in December 2002.

The week's high was recorded at 1.0462. Thus, the US currency squeezed out the European currency by almost 400 points from July 04 to July 8. And there are two reasons for this.

The first is the general strengthening of the dollar, whose DXY index has renewed 20-year highs and reached a height of 107.77 on July 08. As before, the main reason for such dynamics lies in the tightening of the monetary policy (QT) of the US Central Bank. The minutes of the June meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) published on Wednesday, July 06 confirmed once again the regulator's desire to curb inflation at any cost. The main tool here should be a sharp increase in the refinancing rate for federal funds. Recall that the rate was raised immediately by 0.75% in June, for the first time since 1994. As follows from the FOMC minutes, the members of the Committee believe that the rate will be increased by another 50-75 basis points at the next meeting on July 27.

Recall that the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who participated in the ECB forum in the Portuguese city of Sintra, assured the audience that the US economy is well positioned to cope with the active tightening of monetary policy, which is being implemented by his department.

It should be noted here that there is a rather rare situation in the markets when US stock indices also grow along with the growth of the dollar. Thus, the S&P500 grew by 7.5% (from 3635.60 to 3910.60) since June 17, and the Dow Jones - by 6.1% (29646.60 to 31463.00). The reason for this, most likely, is that investors invest part of the dollars received from the sale of the euro, other currencies, as well as risky assets of other countries, in shares of American companies. And this is despite the fact that Jerome Powell made it clear at the press conference in Sintra that a recession in the US economy is inevitable, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta announced that US GDP could decline by 2.1% in the current quarter. But, apparently, the situation in other countries is even worse, so investors have very limited choice.

The second factor putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair is the problems of the European economy related to the sanctions imposed on Russia because of its armed invasion of Ukraine, which threaten the EU with a protracted energy crisis.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said a week ago that “inflation expectations in the Eurozone are much higher than before”, that “we are unlikely to return to conditions of low inflation soon”, and that the regulator “will go as far as necessary to reduce inflation to the target of 2%”. But less than a few days later, Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel urged the ECB to be extremely cautious in terms of tightening monetary policy, as raising interest rates would push the eurozone's weakest economies to the brink of bankruptcy. As a result, the market decided that the regulator would raise the key rate very slowly and responded to the words of Joachim Nagel with an even more active sale of the euro.

It should be noted that the release of macro statistics has recently become just an excuse for a correction or, conversely, for a return to the general bearish trend: in total, the pair has lost about 2,200 points since January 2021, and the fall has been more than 5,800 points since July 2008. After a small correction, the last chord sounded at the level of 1.0177 last week. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 08, the voices of experts are divided as follows: 65% of experts expect the resumption of movement to the south, 15% side with the bulls and 20% cannot decide on the forecast. The indicator readings on D1 give a completely unambiguous signal: all 100% of oscillators and trend indicators are colored red. The only thing worth noting is that 15% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone.

With the exception of support at 1.0160 and last week's low at 1.0071, bears' task No.1 is to celebrate the victory by hitting 1.0000. With a certain degree of probability, due to inertia, the pair may fall even lower, to a strong support/resistance zone of 200, 0.9900-0.9930. In this case, the level of 1.0000 will have to be attacked not by bears, but by bulls. Although this may not happen. Suffice it to recall 2017, when, having fallen to 1.0340, the EUR/USD pair reversed and soared to 1.2555. The immediate target of the bulls is a return to the zone 1.0350-1.0450, then there are zones 1.0450-1.0600 and 1.0625-1.0760. If successful, the bulls will try to rise to the 1.0750-1.0770 zone, the next target is 1.0800.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, Wednesday 13 July can be highlighted, when data from the consumer markets in Germany and the US will arrive. Another portion of macro statistics can be expected on Friday, July 15, when retail sales and the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index become known.

GBP/USD: Battle for 1.2000

Unlike the collapsed euro, the GBP/USD managed to cling to the 1.2000 level. Having started the week at 1.2095, it first rose to 1.2164, then fell to 1.1875, but eventually managed to complete the five-day period at 1.2030. This is despite the political crisis in the UK and the statement of a number of ministers, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself, about their resignation.

Other factors, including economic ones, logically, should also put downward pressure on the pound. Problems related to Brexit are among them. Recall that there is a bill in the country's Parliament that allows to unilaterally change the customs procedures between Britain and Northern Ireland, which had been agreed as part of the deal to exit the EU. In response, the outraged foreign ministers of Germany and Ireland have already accused the United Kingdom of violating international agreements and predicted the severing of most trade ties between the countries.

The highest inflation in 40 years is also depressing. And although the UK is much less dependent on Russian energy supplies than the EU, this does not exclude the possibility that inflation in the country by November could exceed 11%, pushing the economy into a deep recession.

However, this threat may have served as support for the pound, as it pushes the Bank of England (BOE) to tighten monetary policy more quickly. Thus, the hawkish statements of the leadership of the British regulator, made on Thursday, July 07, stopped the fall of the GBP/USD pair and even managed to reverse it to the north.

First, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Katherine Mann said that the uncertainty about the inflationary process strengthens the arguments in favor of an outstripping increase in interest rates. And soon the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Hugh Pill, announced that, if necessary, he was ready to accept a faster pace of tightening the policy of the Central Bank.

At the moment, 60% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will continue to decline in the near future, 15%, on the contrary, expect a rebound upwards, and 25% have taken a neutral position.

The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators on D1, the ratio of forces is 85:15% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is slightly less: 75% indicate a fall, the remaining 25% have turned their eyes to the north. The nearest support is at 1.2000, followed by the 1.1875-1.1930 zone. The mid-term target for the bears could be the March 2020 low of 1.1409. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325, 1.2400-1.2430, 1.2460, then the targets in the area of 1.2500 and 1.2600 follow.

As for the macroeconomic calendar for the UK, we advise you to pay attention to Tuesday, July 12, when the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is expected. Data on manufacturing production and GDP of the UK will be published the next day, Wednesday, on July 13.

USD/JPY: The Calm Before the Storm?

USD/JPY did not renew its 24-year high for the first time in five weeks. As we predicted, it took a breather, spent five days in the trading range 134.77-136.55 and ended it at 136.06.

Recall that the bulls failed to take the height of 137.00 on June 29, stopping just one step away from it: at the level of 136.99. Will they go on a new assault? The number of supporters of such a scenario among the surveyed experts turned out to be... 5%. 35% are waiting for the side trend to continue. The majority of analysts (60%) are still counting on a decisive downward movement of the pair: what if, finally, the long-awaited dream of Japanese importers and housewives finally comes true, and the yen goes on the offensive, regaining the status of a sought-after safe-haven currency?

For indicators on D1, the picture is very different from the opinion of experts. For oscillators, 65% are green, 10% are red, and the remaining 25% are neutral. For trend indicators, 100% point north.

The nearest support is at 135.50, the next one is at 134.75, followed by zones and levels at 134.00, 133.50, 133.00, 132.30, 131.50, 129.70-130.30, 128.60 and 128.00. Apart from overcoming the immediate resistance at 136.35 and taking the height of 137.00, it is difficult to determine further targets for the bulls. Most often, such round levels as 137.00, 140.00 and 150.00 appear in the forecasts. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in the last 3 months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August or early September.

No important events, be it the release of macroeconomic statistics or political factors, are expected in Japan this week. The only thing to note is the speech by the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, on Monday, July 11. However, one should not expect any sensational statements from him.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Run or Wait?

Fight for $20,000 does not subside for more than three weeks. At times, it seemed that a catastrophe was imminent, and the BTC/USD pair would fly further into the abyss in a moment. Moreover, some analysts predicted that it would lose another 50-80% of the current value. And Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicted an even more powerful collapse, by 95%, to $1,100. But the bulls have managed to hold this front line so far.

We already wrote that $20,000 is historically the most important level for the main cryptocurrency. Suffice it to recall the disaster of December 2017, when bitcoin approached this mark, reaching a height of $19,270, and then collapsed by 84%. True, the attack on $20,000 came from the south then, and it is from the north now.

Some crypto enthusiasts are still trying to insist on the independence of the digital asset market. They believe that the reason for the large-scale sale of coins and the collapse of the market three times was the collapse of a number of projects. But, in our opinion, the causal relationship is violated in this statement. In fact, global risk aversion is at the heart of all the problems. Frightened by the expectation of a global recession and a sharp tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, they are actively getting rid of all risky assets. Global stock markets are under pressure from sellers, which is clearly seen on the charts of such stock indices as S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite, with which BTC is in direct correlation. Where they go, bitcoin goes, and there has long been no talk of any independence of it. It was these global problems of the world economy that led to the collapse of a number of important crypto projects, which, in turn, only increased panic among digital asset holders.

Analyzing the situation, Former hedge fund manager Cramer & Co and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer announced the US Fed has won a "remarkable victory" in the fight against cryptocurrencies. “There is a front in the war against inflation with the Fed's outstanding victory: it's a battle against financial speculation. [...] The work on destroying cryptocurrencies is almost complete, but they don't seem to know about it yet,” he said.

According to Glassnode, bitcoin's record price decline in June almost took the rest of the “market tourists” out of the game, leaving only hodlers “at the front”. In the context of monthly dynamics, the situation was worse only in 2011. The number of daily active addresses has dropped from over 1 million in November to the current 870,000. The growth rate of the number of participants decreased to the anti-records of 2018-19. and do not currently exceed 7,000 new users per day.

The largest outflow is recorded among institutional investors (companies with investments from $1 million), public miners (expanding production on credit), as well as speculators and casual players. Institutions withdrew a record $188 million from crypto funds in June, and the volume of “illiquid supply” rose to the highest level since July 2017 at 223,000 BTC.

Thanks to a correction in the US stock market, bitcoin managed to rise above $20,000 last week. At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, July 08), the coin is trading in the $21,800 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.966 trillion ($0.876 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly improved over the week, rising from 11 to 20 points, but is still in the Extreme Fear zone.

What is the future of the main cryptocurrency? According to Timothy Peterson, investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall in the coming months under the pressure of the American factor. According to the expert’s calculations, the probability of a recession in the United States has increased to 70%, respectively, capital will continue to leave risky assets, and the BTC price may collapse by 20% or even 40% by the end of summer. Recall that, according to Arcane Research researchers, the potential for a decrease in the price of bitcoin remains until the level of $10,350.

The financier Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, also admits that the current market situation is only the middle of a bearish cycle. This investor, who became the prototype of the hero of the movie "The Big Short", believes that the first cryptocurrency can continue to fall. «Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there,” wrote Burry.

Deutsche Bank specialists believe that the price of bitcoin may rise to the level of $28,000 only by the end of 2022. And they also attribute this growth with the growth of the US stock market. In their opinion, the Nasdaq-100 and S&P500 indices will be able to recover to January levels by the end of the year and pull bitcoin with them.

The forecast of Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou, a representative of another bank, JPMorgan strategist, looks quite accurate. He admits that the worst of the bear market may be over now, as the strong players in the crypto industry “rescue” the weak ones to contain the “infection”. The specialist could have in mind the interest of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in buying the BlockFi landing platform. The media also mentioned the online broker Robinhood as a target for the takeover. Previously, the FTX exchange supported the cryptocurrency broker Voyager Digital. Panigirtzoglou also added that "the echoes of the deleveraging process will continue for some time yet," citing the default of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.

Crypto trader Rekt Capital is waiting for the market to run out of sellers at some point, and long-term investors will be able to buy BTC in a price range that offers the maximum reward. “Historically, the 200-week moving average has been considered a bottom indicator for BTC. Things may be a little different in the current cycle. Instead of bottoming out at the SMA200, bitcoin could form a macro range below it. In fact, anything below will represent a peak buying opportunity,” wrote Rekt Capital.

The trader noted that while bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend, the prerequisites for a new bull cycle will eventually open up: “Bitcoin may still be in the acceleration phase downtrend, and it will precede the stage of multi-month consolidation, followed by the stage of a new upward macro trend.”

All of the above forecasts indicate that it will take at least several months to wait for a new bullish rally. But former stockbroker Jordan Belfort advises to be patient not for months, but for years. “If you look beyond the 24-month horizon, you can definitely make money if you're lucky. If you take a three- or five-year period, I will be shocked if you do not make money, because the basic principles of bitcoin are unshakable,” he said, explaining that the supply of the first cryptocurrency is limited to 21 million digital coins, and inflation in the world continues to grow.

Recall that earlier Jordan Belfort was convicted of fraud related to the securities market. His memoir inspired director Martin Scorsese to create the famous film The Wolf of Wall Street. But if earlier this broker violated the law, now he actively advocates for a clear regulation of crypto assets.

Charlie Erith, CEO of investment firm ByteTree, shared a view similar to Belfort’s. Like The Wolf of Wall Street, he looked far into the future, identifying bitcoin and gold as important components of long-term investment portfolios. Not because they are guaranteed to increase in price, but because they work as insurance against mistakes in an era of inflation. However, according to the financier, much will depend on the policy of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks.


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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- 60% of investors surveyed by Bloomberg believe that a decline in the price of bitcoin to $10,000 is more likely. The remaining 40% are waiting for a recovery to $30,000. The study involved 950 respondents. Compared to institutions, there were more skeptics among retail investors. Almost every fourth called the first cryptocurrency “garbage” (18% of professional market participants).
Respondents expressed confidence that recent developments in the crypto market will prompt regulators to tighten their supervision of the industry. This can increase trust and lead to further popularization of digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents expressed confidence in the strong positions of bitcoin and Ethereum in the next five years, despite the active preparation by Central banks to launch their own digital currencies (CBDC).
As for NFTs, only 9% of the study participants see them as an investment opportunity. For the rest, non-fungible tokens are art projects and status symbols, which will no longer return to the previous hype.

- The inflow of funds into cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $15 million in the first week of July. The rate of inflows into bear funds, which allow bitcoin shorts, has slowed from $51 million a week earlier to $6.3 million, according to data from investment firm CoinShares. There was an inflow to Ethereum-based products for the third week in a row. Analysts have linked this to Ethereum's upcoming transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. Investors remain interested in products based on several assets. Investments in them have amounted to $217.3 million since the beginning of the year.

- Gold advocate and critic of the first cryptocurrency, Peter Schiff, said he was ready to sell his Euro Pacific bank for bitcoins or for any other digital asset. “Actually, yes, I would sell the bank for anything if the regulators let me do it. My main goal is to protect clients,” he wrote.
Recall that regulators in Puerto Rico closed Euro Pacific in early July due to allegations of insolvency and non-compliance. Schiff said that government authorities are taking revenge on him for criticizing excessive taxation and control by the authorities. According to him, the regulators have no evidence of violations, the bank has no loans or debts, but there are enough funds to fully pay all depositors.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC that he does not believe in the possibility of reducing the price of the first cryptocurrency to $13,000. “There is a feeling that we are 90% over this deleveraging. […] The problem is that further growth requires more faith and new capital,” he said. According to Novogratz, companies in the cryptocurrency market had too many leveraged positions. This led to the bankruptcy of some of them. He also predicted a sideways trend in the digital asset industry until the US Federal Reserve stops raising the base rate. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, it will take about 18 months.
Rockefeller International CEO Ruchir Sharma also noted that bitcoin needs to get rid of excess leverage in order to become sustainable again.

- Ethereum should be classified as a security, since the asset was originally distributed to investors as part of an ICO. This was stated by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who added that the periodic software updates of the Ethereum network, behind which the development team stands, are another argument in favor of such a classification. In his opinion, for a cryptocurrency to be considered a commodity, it should not have an issuer or someone who would “make decisions”.
Saylor also stated that the tokens of all networks based on Proof-of-Stake are securities. According to him, investing in these assets is “extremely risky” due to potential problems with regulators. According to the top manager, this is one of the key reasons why MicroStrategy only invests in bitcoin.

- Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst, said that North Korea will continue to focus on cyberattacks on cryptocurrency and technology companies as the DPRK regime faces severe shortages of food and other resources.
These attacks will become more sophisticated over time as the country struggles with lingering economic sanctions and profiting from cyberattacks has become a "way of life" for North Korea. According to the analyst, the country takes this job very seriously: it's not just some person sitting in the basement and trying to steal cryptocurrency. Pyongyang provides its hackers with the best equipment and education as they bring it a critical income stream. First of all, according to Kim, hackers pay attention to unsuspecting employees of technology companies and try to find vulnerabilities through them, and often get a job in one of the Western or Asian companies themselves.
Earlier, Reuters experts estimated that due to the downturn in the market, the cryptocurrency stolen by North Korea over the past year has fallen in price by $400 million.

- Miners in the US began to move to new states in order not to burn out on rising electricity prices. According to the US government, electricity costs in the country will grow by an average of 5% this summer. But it all depends on each individual state. For example, according to the forecast of the US Chamber of Commerce, electricity growth in New England will be 16.4%, while in the Southwest it will be only 2.4%.
However, moving is far from the only way to save your mining investment. There are many incentives for renewable energy in the US. For example, when installing large solar panels, miners can receive incentives from the government, sometimes reaching 50% of the electricity bill.

- Macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden believes that although there are no clear bullish signals in the crypto market, the time for global capitulation has already passed. In her opinion, the worst part of the bearish trend ended along with the volatile first half of 2022, when BTC lost over 56% of its value. The macro strategist believes that bitcoin can recover as the massive BTC sell-off has stopped.
However, Alden warns that bitcoin could still go down one step. “Macroeconomically, there are still not many bullish catalysts at the moment, and I would not rule out further price movement down.” “We have seen that, for the most part, bitcoin is very strongly correlated with the growth of the money supply, especially in dollars. So, when we have had a huge increase in the money supply around the world over the past couple of years, bitcoin has also done very well,” explained Alden. Now the reverse is happening as the US Federal Reserve and other Central banks try to tamp down inflation. And this, accordingly, affects the price of the cryptocurrency.

- CEO of Rockefeller International, formerly chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, Ruchir Sharma believes that bitcoin will soon return to growth and reach new heights. The financier recalled the situation with Amazon in the early 2000s, during the dot-com bubble, when the retailer's share price collapsed by 90%. However, stocks then bounced back, and rose another 300 times over the next 20 years. The top manager of Rockfeller International believes that a similar situation could happen with the first cryptocurrency.
Sharma noted that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have become victims of a “global speculative mania.” At the same time, the deleveraging process is not over yet, and the bitcoin rate may further decline in the next six months against the backdrop of a fall in the stock market. Sharma recalled that a bearish trend usually lasts about a year in the stock market, and stock indices fall by 35%. At the moment, the market has decreased by only 20%. “I would not say that we are already at the bottom. The bearish trend in the US, which is the driver of demand for risky assets around the world, is still ongoing,” Sharma said.
According to the head of Rockfeller International, the position of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is currently under threat. At the same time, he does not see competitors from other fiat currencies, but a “window of opportunity” has opened for cryptocurrencies. Sharma believes that top cryptocurrencies will become much more stable within three to five years, which will allow them to displace the US dollar.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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EUR/USD: Parity 1:1 Achieved

What we've been talking about over the last few months has come true: the EUR/USD hit 1.0000 on Tuesday, July 12. The local bottom was fixed on Thursday July 14 at 0.9951. The last time the pair was so low was in December 2002. Note that the dollar strengthened not only against the euro, but also against other leading world currencies. The DXY index is also in the zone of 20-year highs, having approached the height of 108.99 on July 14.

The greenback's rally was spurred on by recent US inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) reached 9.1% in June, exceeding the forecast of 8.8%. Note that this was observed only 12 times in 110 years, and the last time inflation rose above 9% was in 1981. This record (rather an anti-record) strengthened market expectations regarding the pace of tightening monetary policy (QT) by the US Central Bank. If earlier it was assumed that the rate would be increased by 50-75 basis points at the next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) on July 27, there is talk now that federal funds costs may increase immediately by 100 bp. The probability of such a move is estimated by analysts at 82%, and the probability that the rate will be raised by a total of 175 basis points at the two upcoming meetings is 75%, according to CME Group FedWatch.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) President Rafael Bostic dismissed the possibility, adding that inflation could rise even further by the end of the year, requiring the Fed to act even more decisively. According to experts, the desire of the US Central Bank to stop inflation at any cost may lead to the fact that the rate will eventually reach 4.00% (it is 1.75% at the moment). And this will be done even though the country's economy may fall into the deepest recession.

What is good for the dollar is bad for the stock market. Flight from risky assets intensified amid market fears about a prolonged economic downturn. S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell down, while DXY flew up. Data on retail sales in the US, which were released on Friday evening, July 15, slowed down the flight. With a previous reading of -0.1% and a forecast of 0.8%, this figure reached 1.0% in June, which pushed the EUR/USD pair up and finished at 1.0082.

It should be noted that the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy creates problems not only for the US economy, but also for the entire global economy. The share of the US dollar in international reserves was 59% at the end of 2020, and the share in international settlements as of February 2022 reached 39%. Thus, the dollar is both the main reserve currency and the main means of payment in the world. With its strengthening, the burden increases primarily on emerging market economies that have received large loans from the IMF. Debt service difficulties have already led to a default in Sri Lanka, problems await El Salvador, Tunisia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Ghana.

The popularity of the dollar as a defensive asset will continue to grow with the approach of a recession and thanks to the policy of the US Federal Reserve. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 15, this forecast is supported by 60% of experts. Further correction to the north is expected by 30%, and 10% of analysts have given a neutral forecast. The oscillator readings on D1 give a completely unambiguous signal: all 100% are colored red. There are 85% of those among the trend indicators, the remaining 15% have taken the opposite position.

The closest strong support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.0040-1.0050 zone, followed by the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone. 0.9900-0.9930. The nearest serious target of the bulls is a return to the zone 1.0350-1.0450, then there are zones 1.0450-1.0600 and 1.0625-1.0770. There are several levels on the way to 1.0350, which the pair broke very easily during the fall, so it is still difficult to determine which of them can become a serious obstacle when moving up.

The highlight of the coming week will undoubtedly be the ECB meeting on Thursday July 21. It is expected that the regulator will raise the interest rate from 0.0% to 0.25%. Such a move could support the euro a little, although it looks rather timid against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish policy. Of undoubted interest are the subsequent press conference and comments of the ECB management, which should give the market an idea about the future plans of this regulator.

Other events include the publication on Tuesday, July 19 of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the report on bank lending in the Eurozone. Data on the labor market and manufacturing activity in the US will be released on Thursday, July 21, and the value of the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in the manufacturing sector in Germany will become known the next day. In addition, we advise you to pay attention to the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate on July 20. This decision is especially interesting, since China's GDP in the Q2 2022. decreased by 2.6% against the forecast of a decrease by 1.5%, which indicates the approach of the country's economy to a recession.

GBP/USD: The Battle for 1.2000 Is Lost, But It's Not Over Yet

The GBP/USD pair, unlike the EUR/USD, has not yet broken a multi-year record, but is already close to it. The local bottom was fixed at 1.1759 last week, and the last chord of the five-day period was set at 1.1865. Below are two serious targets: 1.1409, the collapse point caused by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, and the December 1984 low of 1.0757. We think it's too early to talk about the parity of the pound with the dollar 1:1.

The macro data released on Wednesday July 13 turned out to be unexpectedly green. Thus, the UK GDP (yoy) with a forecast of 2.7% in reality amounted to 3.5%, while the June GDP, with the previous value of -0.2% and the forecast of 0.1%, rose to 0.5%. Despite this positive, the factors of pressure on the country's economy have not gone away. Among them are problems related to Brexit and the customs conflict between Britain and Northern Ireland. Inflation remains the highest in 40 years, and it is possible that it could exceed 11% by November, pushing the economy into a deep recession. We must add the government crisis that caused the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson to all this, as well as the difficulties associated with sanctions against Russia due to its armed invasion of Ukraine.

Despite statements from BoE officials that they are ready to accept a faster pace of monetary tightening, in reality the regulator is acting more cautiously than the market expected. The current interest rate is 1.25%, which is lower than the corresponding Fed rate (1.75%), and the next BOE meeting will take place only on August 04, 2022. And this cannot but exert downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

At the moment, 50% of experts believe that the British currency will continue to lose ground, 25% on the contrary expect a rebound upwards, and 25% have taken a neutral position. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators on D1, the power ratio is 100:0% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is slightly less: 90% indicate a fall, the remaining 10% have turned their eyes to the north.

The nearest support is at 1.1800, followed by the July 14 low of 1.1759. Further, 1.1650, 1.1535 and March 2020 lows in the 1.1400-1.1450 zone. The immediate task of the bulls is to rise to the 1.1875-1.1915 zone, and then a new stage of the battle for 1.2000, which they ingloriously lost last week. In case of victory, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

As for the macroeconomic calendar for the United Kingdom, we advise you to pay attention to Tuesday July 19, when data from the UK labor market arrives. The speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is scheduled on the same day. The value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known on Wednesday, July 20, and a whole package of data regarding the state of the British economy will be received on Friday. It will include retail sales data for June, as well as data on business activity (PMI) both in individual sectors and in the country as a whole.

USD/JPY: The Storm After the Calm

We called the previous review “The Calm Before the Storm” as USD/JPY did not renew its 24-year high for the first time in five weeks and took a breather. But since a storm was promised, it must break out. A new high at 139.38 was recorded on July 14, and the pair met the end of the trading session at 138.50.

The reason for the new weakening of the yen is the same: the difference between the hawkish monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the ultra-dove one of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). By the way, the next meeting of the Japanese Central Bank is to be held next week, on Thursday, July 21, at which it is likely to once again leave the interest rate unchanged at the negative level of -0.1%.

If we usually talk about the fight between bulls and bears, then regarding the future of the yen, the fight is between… analysts and BOJ. The former, for the most part, are waiting for the Central Bank to finally change its policy, and therefore stubbornly vote for the strengthening of the yen. The latter, no less stubbornly, leaves this policy unchanged, and the USD/JPY pair stubbornly moves up.

This time, only 40% of experts speak about the pair's movement to the height of 142.00. The remaining 60% hope for a downward trend reversal. There are no such disagreements in the readings of indicators on D1: all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are looking north, although 20% of the latter are in the overbought zone. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 137.65, 137.00, 136.60 135.50-135.70, 134.00, 133.50 and 133.00. The bulls' targets ¬are 140.00 and 142.00. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in recent months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August - early September

Apart from the meeting of the Japanese Central Bank and the subsequent press conference of its management, there are no other significant events expected in Japan this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Beginning of the End of the Bear Phase



The previous review drew attention to an anomaly when both the dollar and the US stock indices - S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq were growing at the same time. Things fell into place last week: the US currency continued to grow, and the indices fell down. It should be noted to bitcoin's credit that, despite another wave of investor flight from risks, it managed to stay in the $20,000 zone. Now, how long will it last?

CEO of Rockefeller International, who previously held the post of chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, Ruchir Sharma, recalled that a bearish trend usually lasts about a year in the stock market, and stock exchanges indices are falling by 35%. At the moment, the market has decreased by only 20%. So we can expect a further drop in demand for risky assets including bitcoin in the next six months.

“I would not say that we are already at the bottom,” Sharma said, adding that bitcoin will return to growth and reach new highs after the end of the bear cycle. The financier recalled the situation with Amazon in the early 2000s, during the dot-com bubble, when the retailer's share price collapsed by 90%. However, stocks then bounced back, and rose another 300 times over the next 20 years.

If you look at the BTC/USD chart, it's easy to see that the flagship currency has been clinging to round levels lately. So, bulls and bears fought for $40,000 from April 11 to May 5. The front line was at $30,000 from May 10 to June 10. The battle has been taking place in the $20,000 zone since mid-June. At the moment, 60% of investors surveyed by Bloomberg consider another decline in the price of bitcoin more likely, this time to $10,000. The remaining 40% are waiting for a recovery to $30,000. The study involved 950 respondents. Compared to institutions, there were more skeptics among retail investors. Almost every fourth called the first cryptocurrency “garbage” (18% of professional market participants).

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC that he does not believe in the possibility of reducing the price of the first cryptocurrency to $13,000. “There is a feeling that we are 90% over this deleveraging. […] The problem is that further growth requires more faith and new capital,” he said. According to Novogratz, the sideways trend of digital assets will last until the US Federal Reserve stops raising the base rate, which will take about 18 months.

Macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden made a similar point. She believes that although there are no clear bullish signals in the crypto market, the time for global capitulation has already passed. In her opinion, the worst part of the bearish trend ended along with the unstable first half of 2022. The macro strategist believes that bitcoin can recover as the massive BTC sell-off has stopped.

However, Alden warns that bitcoin could still go down one step. “Macroeconomically, there are still not many bullish catalysts at the moment, and I would not rule out further price movement down.” “We have seen that, for the most part, bitcoin is very strongly correlated with the growth of the money supply, especially in dollars. So, when we have had a huge increase in the money supply around the world over the past couple of years, bitcoin has also done very well,” explained Alden. 1Now the reverse is happening as the US Federal Reserve and other central banks try to tamp down inflation. This, accordingly, affects the price of the cryptocurrency. In other words, now that the flow of cheap liquidity has dried up and interest rates are rising, investors prefer not to get involved in risky assets.

Some experts prefer to call what is happening in the crypto market not a collapse, but simply another deep correction. In addition, referring to historical data, they declare entering the final phase of a bear market. So, at the end of 2018, the total drop was 84% from the previous historical maximum. The BTC/USD pair has currently fallen from the November 11, 2021 high by only 71%. Thus, if we follow this model, we can expect the completion of the correction in the region of $10,000-11,000, and the subsequent consolidation may last about a year or more.

According to Glassnode, market shrinkage has virtually eliminated the rest of the "market tourists" from the game, leaving only hodlers "at the front". On average, unrealized losses of each of them are now 33%. This is not the worst indicator in history, which also suggests that the final bearish phase has just begun.

The start of the final phase is also signaled by the capitulation of the miners, which has a high correlation with the bottoming of bitcoin. Most of the public mining companies used to expand their production with loans. Now their earnings have dropped to 50%, forcing them to sell off their coin holdings to cover operating and borrowing costs. Glassnode estimates that miner inventories are now around 70,000 BTC worth about $1.3 billion. And in the event of a prolonged consolidation, they will also be forced to put them on sale, which will put additional pressure on the market.

Please note that in this case, we are talking only about the beginning, and not about the end of the final phase of the bearish trend. Thus, the surrender of miners in 2018-19 lasted four months, while the current cycle lasts a little more than a month.

As for Ethereum, the dynamics of the ETH/USD pair quotes almost repeats the dynamics of BTC/USD. Some experts do not exclude its temporary rise to $1,280, however, they believe that this will be another trap for the bulls. And the pair will return to the $1,000 zone after its triggering. The next target of the bears is $500.

Returning to the Bloomberg survey, most of the 950 investors surveyed expressed confidence in the strong position of bitcoin and ethereum over the next five years. In their opinion, developments in the crypto market will prompt regulators to tighten supervision over the industry. This can increase trust and lead to further popularization of digital assets. Ruchir Sharma of Rockefeller International also believes that top cryptocurrencies will become much more stable within three to five years, which will allow them to seriously push the US dollar.

As of this writing (Friday evening, July 15), bitcoin is trading in the $20,900 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.945 trillion ($0.966 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped 5 points over the week from 20 to 15 points and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- Congress and the SEC should take a tougher stance on the cryptocurrency industry. This was stated by a member of the US Senate Banking Committee Elizabeth Warren. “I am sounding the alarm about cryptocurrencies and the need for stricter regulations for consumer protection and financial stability. Too many companies have managed to deceive customers and rub ordinary investors in their face,” said the senator.
Warren's words came against the background of ongoing problems in the crypto industry. For example, Celsius Network suspended the withdrawal of funds “due to extreme market conditions” in June, after which it filed for bankruptcy. It became known about the introduction of limits on the withdrawal of funds by the CoinLoan platform on July 5, and the Vauld platform announced a possible restructuring.

- Assuming the market cycle repeats, the bearish phase of bitcoin will end in the first half of autumn. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the historical data provided by the analysts at Grayscale Investments. It took bitcoin 1,290 and 1,257 days to form a full cycle in 2012 and 2016, respectively. It took 391 and 364 days to fall from the peak by 73% in 2012 and by 84% in 2016. The duration of the current cycle, which began in 2020, has reached 1206 days (as of July 20, 2022). In other words, it may take another two or three months before the bottom is reached.

- A crypto strategist with the nickname Rekt Capital came to similar conclusions. In his opinion, despite the oversold signals, the downward exchange rate movement may continue for quite a long time. The analyst noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the BTC monthly timeframe is now below the lowest levels of the bear markets of 2015 and 2018, which could become new resistance levels for bitcoin.
According to Rekt Capital, the short-term prospects of the coin do not look very good, and the bottom can be reached only in a few months: “Bitcoin has about 650 days before the next halving (April 2024). Historically, it bottomed around 517-547 days before its halving. In the event of a repeat of history, bitcoin will need another 100-150 days before reaching the bottom, which will form in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

- Analysts at the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange use the 200-week moving average on the bitcoin chart as their main indicator. In particular, they drew attention to the multipliers with which BTC traded in the past relative to its 200-week SMA. Thus, having rebounded from the SMA200, bitcoin grew 15.2 times in December 2017. The growth was 13.2 times in November 2013. At the moment, BTC is trading close to its 200-week moving average. Its current value is about $22,485. If the coin shows a multiplier in the range of 13x - 15x again, it may rise to about $300,000.
Of course, the multiplier for BTC was not always 10x when touching the SMA200. Growth peaked at 5.8x in March 2021 before the crypto market began to decline noticeably. However, even with this value of the multiplier, bitcoin can rise to $130,000.

- The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned of a rise in fake applications for investing in cryptocurrencies. It is common for attackers to impersonate legitimate financial institutions in order to gain the trust of potential victims. They then persuade people to install fraudulent mobile apps and deposit money, which they then steal. According to FBI estimates, cybercriminals have recently managed to steal about $43 million in this way.
The Bureau recommended that cryptocurrency owners enable multi-factor authentication for all their accounts, reject requests to install suspicious applications, and verify phone numbers and email addresses on the official websites of companies allegedly acting on behalf of scammers.

- Edward Dowd, a former top manager at Blackrock investment firm, believes that despite the recent turmoil, bitcoin will become an integral part of any investment portfolio. The specialist believes that gold will remain a viable investment, but BTC is more likely to become a store of value. “At least BTC can be sold or exchanged digitally, but it is much more difficult with gold. Although I am not against gold, having a small amount of it is also a good idea,” says Dowd.
As the cryptocurrency industry matures, bitcoin will stand out from the rest of the market, the ex-CEO of Blackrock believes. He compared the cryptocurrency market to the era of the dot-com crisis, when the vast majority of Internet companies closed down, and only stronger competitors managed to survive. Dowd cited the example of Amazon, which is still considered one of the largest technology giants. Last month, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe also compared the current bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market to the dot-com crisis.

- American businessman Thomas Peterffy, whose capital is estimated at $18.4 billion, is ready to buy bitcoins when the value of the cryptocurrency drops to $12,000. This chairman of Interactive Brokers admitted in a recent interview with Forbes that he already owns digital assets and plans to acquire a few more coins if BTC drops in price. The billionaire does not intend to buy cryptocurrency at the current, high in his opinion, price, as he believes that in the future bitcoin is likely to depreciate or be banned in the United States. Despite the high financial risks associated with buying cryptocurrencies, Peterffy advised investors in January to invest 2-3% of assets in bitcoin in case “money goes to hell.”
Last week, Finder portal experts made a forecast for a decline in the value of bitcoin to $13,676. Analysts doubt that the price will fall below this value, and then Thomas' plan will not come true.

- Despite the fall of the cryptocurrency market, a poll on the social network Weibo with the participation of more than 2,200 people showed that Chinese traders are waiting for further decline in the price of bitcoin. 8% of respondents said they would buy BTC at $18,000 per coin. 26% of respondents will start purchases at $15,000. But if the bitcoin rate falls to $10,000, 40% of respondents will buy the first cryptocurrency.
Recall that trading in cryptocurrencies is prohibited in China. The People's Bank of China reported in March that the volume of BTC transactions in the country decreased by 80%, which indicates the effectiveness of the ban.

- Bitcoin rose above $23,000 as the US dollar weakened. The DXY index, which determines the strength of the USD, finally broke the rally that began on February 24 and rebounded from its twenty-year high at around 109.294 points, registered on July 14. At the time of publication, this drop has reached almost 2.5%.
The maximum price of BTC at the time of publication on 07/20/2022 was $23,911. Thus, bitcoin has grown by 26.6% compared to the low of July 13 ($18.886). This movement could be regarded as a technical rebound; however, the main cryptocurrency has overcome an important psychological level in the form of a 200-week moving average. According to analysts at the Binance crypto exchange, if the bulls manage to close the week above this level, it will be possible to ascertain the restoration of strong support characteristic of bitcoin bearish cycles.

- Bitcoin's break above the 200-week SMA caused a surge of enthusiasm among investors. Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe first tweeted out a graphical forecast anticipating a cryptocurrency rally to $28,000 and then compared the current market situation to the recovery from the memorable collapse triggered by the announcement of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. At that time, bitcoin collapsed to $3,782, but then rose by 1.600% over the next 13 months (to $64,853 in April 2021).


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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EUR/USD: The ECB's Monetary Experiment: Crossing a Hawk with a Dove



The single European currency showed slight growth at the beginning of last week, fixing a local high at 1.0272. There are three reasons for this. The first and most banal one is a corrective rebound after the EUR/USD pair, having broken through the parity level of 1.0000, found the bottom at 0.9951 on July 14. The second one is the resumption of Russian gas supplies to the EU via the Nord Stream pipeline. And finally, the third and most important one is the expectation of a rise in the euro interest rate. Moreover, the market expected that the rate would be raised by 50 basis points (bp) at once, and not by 25, as announced by the ECB itself at its previous meeting. This is what happened in reality. For the first time in 13 years, the European regulator raised the lending rate from 0 to 0.5% on Thursday, July 21, and brought the deposit rate out of the negative zone, raising it from -0.5% to 0%.

The ECB explained in its press release that it felt appropriate to take a larger first step towards rate normalization for two reasons. The first is obvious and consists of an updated assessment of inflation growth. As a second reason, the ECB announced the launch of a new instrument, the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which should allow, despite the increase in the rate, not to increase the cost of borrowing too aggressively in the vulnerable economies of the Eurozone. The TPI description explains that this tool was introduced to counter the unreasonable erratic market movements that took place in mid-June.

In short, the essence of TPI is that the ECB will be able to buy back securities issued in those EU countries where there is a destabilization of financial conditions unjustified by fundamental factors, on the secondary market. The volume of purchases is not limited by anything and will depend on the severity of the risks. In other words, the regulator will try to cross a hawk with a dove­: on the one hand, by raising the rate (QT), and on the other hand, by continuing potentially unlimited quantitative easing (QE). The market reaction to this monetary experiment turned out to be appropriate and predictable: the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0152. After that, it went up again and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.0210.

There will be a meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve next week, on Wednesday, July 27. Almost no one doubts that the key interest rate will be raised there. But how much? By 100 bp, which hasn't happened since 1981, or by 75 bp? If the FOMC chooses the first option, the rate will reach 2.75%. It is this growth that the markets put into their quotes, expecting a new assault on the 1.0000 horizon by the EUR/USD pair. However, if the Fed abandons this idea and the rise is more modest, then a further rebound of the pair to the north is not ruled out.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of July 22, 25% of experts supported the growth of the pair. The remaining 75% showed it the way to the south. The oscillator readings on D1 give a slightly different signal: 60% are colored red, 25% are green and 15% are neutral grey. As for the trend indicators, 65% look south, the remaining 35% have taken the opposite position. The immediate support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.0150-1.0200 zone, then, of course, comes the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone. 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task for the bulls will be to break through the resistance at 1.0270 and return to the 1.0400-1.0450 zone, followed by the 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750 zones.

As already mentioned, the most important event of the upcoming week will be the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve and its decision on the interest rate. The volume of US orders for capital goods and durable goods will become known on the same day, Wednesday, July 27. Data (CPI) on consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone will arrive on Thursday, July 28 and Friday, July 29, respectively. The preliminary size of the US GDP (Q2) will be known on July 28, and the GDP of Germany and the Eurozone on July 29.

GBP/USD: The Battle for 1.2000 Continues

Last week was quite busy for the pound as for the publication of important macro-statistics on the UK. And although it turned out to be rather ambiguous, there were distinct positive notes in it, especially where it concerned the labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country for the month decreased from 34.7K to 20.0K, and this is against the forecast of 41.2K.

Unlike EUR/USD, thanks to such statistics, the GBP/USD pair showed more confident growth and managed to return to where it was trading two and five weeks ago, putting the final chord at around 1.2000. And now the question arises: will this level turn into strong resistance or support?

At the moment, 75% of experts believe that the British currency will continue to lose ground, 25%, on the contrary, expect a rebound upwards. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators, the balance of power is 65-35% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is much less: 35% indicate a fall, 25% indicate an increase, the remaining 40% remain neutral. The closest support is located in the 1.1875-1.1915 zone. Below is the level of 1.1800, the low of July 14 of 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and the lows of March 2020 in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

The macroeconomic calendar does not include major news from the United Kingdom itself. The determining factor for the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair, of course, will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, July 27. Recall that the interest rate on the pound is 1.25% at the moment , and the next meeting of the Bank of England (BOE) is scheduled for August 04, 2022.

USD/JPY: Correction or Trend Change?

What most experts dreamed about for so long has come true. The USD/JPY pair did not renew the 24-year high again, and did not even take a break, but literally collapsed down. And this despite the fact that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) once again left the interest rate unchanged at a negative level of -0.1% on Thursday, July 21. The management of the regulator did not even hint of tightening monetary policy. On the contrary, it was stated that the Japanese Central Bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures (QE) if necessary, and also expects short-term and long-term interest rates to remain at the current or even lower (!) levels.

Although inflation in Japan tends to rise, it is still below 2%, which is many times lower than in the US and Europe. Thus, given the dynamics of domestic demand and weak wage growth, there is still little incentive for the BOJ to change its ultra-dove tack. So the current strengthening of the yen and the fall of the pair USD/JPY from 139.38 to 135.56 is due, with a high degree of probability, to its being strong overbought.

This time, 70% of experts are waiting for a new push of the pair to the height of 142.00. 15% hope for a continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 15% speak of a side corridor. The picture is vaguer in the readings of indicators on D1: trend indicators have a parity of 50% to 50%, 25% of oscillators look to the north, 40% to the south and 35% to the east. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 135.55, 134.75, 134.00, 133.50, 133.00 and 131.40. Resistances are 136.35-137.00, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-1.139.00, followed by the July 14 high at 139.38 and round bull targets­ of 140.00 and 142.00.

No major events are expected in Japan this week. Of course, we can note the publication on Monday, July 26 of the report on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan, however, it is unlikely that it will cause not only a tsunami, but even a small wave in the market. So the focus of attention, as for other currency pairs, will be on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, July 27.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Little Patience, Ladies and Gentlemen!

For the first time since June 13, BTC/USD rose above $23,000 and even hit $24,263 last week. What is this, a long-awaited change in trend? Or a brief thaw in the middle of a crypto winter? Or maybe another insidious trap arranged by bears for gullible investors? Let's figure it out.

We have repeatedly written that a popular marker among crypto-analysts is the 200-week moving average (SMA200), which has been referred to more and more often lately. The reason is that it used to be the main support for the BTC/USD pair. But it is not at all certain that what happened before will be repeated in the future. And the proof of this is the recent breakdown of this very SMA200. However, this technical analysis indicator is still one of the most used in making forecasts.

So, bitcoin managed to rise above the 200-week moving average last week. The reason for this, of course, is not that the flagship cryptocurrency has become stronger, but that the US dollar has weakened a little. Against this background, the US stock indices, S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq went up, and after them the quotes of such risky assets as cryptocurrencies followed.

At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, July 22), bitcoin is trading around $22,670. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.026 trillion ($0.945 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 15 to 33 points in a week, and finally got out of the Extreme Fear zone into the Fear zone.

Thus, bitcoin is up about 20% from the July 13 low ($18.886) and is just above the 200-week moving average ($22.565). According to analysts at the Binance crypto exchange, such a close of the week gives hope for the restoration of strong support in the form of SMA200, which is typical for bitcoin bear cycles.

Bitcoin’s break above the 200-week SMA caused a surge of enthusiasm among investors. Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe first tweeted out a graphical forecast anticipating a cryptocurrency rally to $28,000 and then compared the current market situation to the recovery from the memorable collapse triggered by the announcement of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. At that time, bitcoin collapsed to $3,782, but then rose by 1.600% over the next 13 months (to $64,853 in April 2021).

Analysts of the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange are equally optimistic, who also use the 200-week moving average as the main indicator. In particular, they drew attention to the multipliers with which BTC traded in the past relative to its 200-week SMA. Thus, having rebounded from the SMA200, bitcoin grew 15.2 times in December 2017. The growth was 13.2 times in November 2013. At the moment, BTC is trading close to its 200-week moving average. If the coin shows a multiplier in the range of 13x - 15x again, it may rise to about $300,000.

Of course, the multiplier for BTC was not always 10x when touching the SMA200. Growth peaked at 5.8x in March 2021 before the crypto market began to decline noticeably. However, even with this value of the multiplier, bitcoin can rise to $130,000. But when will this happen? The patience of many market participants has already run out.

We have already written that, according to Glassnode data, bitcoin's record price decline in June almost took the rest of the “market tourists” out of the game, leaving only hodlers “at the front”. In the context of monthly dynamics, the situation was worse only in 2011. The largest outflow was recorded among institutional investors (companies with investments from $1 million), public miners (expanding production on credit), as well as speculators and casual players.

Assuming the market cycle repeats, the bearish phase of bitcoin will end in the first half of autumn. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the historical data provided by the analysts at Grayscale Investments. It took bitcoin 1,290 and 1,257 days to form a full cycle in 2012 and 2016, respectively. It took 391 and 364 days to fall from the peak by 73% in 2012 and by 84% in 2016. The duration of the current cycle, which began in 2020, has reached 1206 days (as of July 20, 2022). In other words, it may take another two to three months before reaching the bottom.

A crypto strategist with the nickname Rekt Capital came to similar conclusions. In his opinion, despite the oversold signals, the downward exchange rate movement may continue for quite a long time. The analyst noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the BTC monthly timeframe is now below the lowest levels of the bear markets of 2015 and 2018, which could become new resistance levels for bitcoin.

According to Rekt Capital, the short-term prospects of the coin do not look very good, and the bottom can be reached only in a few months: “Bitcoin has about 650 days before the next halving (April 2024). Historically, it bottomed around 517-547 days before its halving. In the event of a repeat of history, bitcoin will need another 100-150 days before reaching the bottom, which will form in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

American businessman Thomas Peterffy, whose capital is estimated at $18.4 billion, is ready to buy bitcoins when the value of the cryptocurrency drops to $12,000. This chairman of Interactive Brokers admitted in a recent interview with Forbes that he does not intend to buy cryptocurrency at the current, in his opinion, high price, as he believes that in the future, bitcoin is very likely to depreciate or be banned in the United States.

Most traders from China are in solidarity with Thomas Peterffi. A poll on the social network Weibo with the participation of more than 2,200 people showed that Chinese traders are waiting for further decline in the price of bitcoin. 8% of respondents said they would buy BTC at $18,000 per coin. 26% of respondents will start purchases at $15,000. But if the bitcoin rate falls to $10,000, 40% of respondents will buy the first cryptocurrency.

It can be seen from all of the above that, despite the prospects for BTC to rise to the cosmic $300,000, there are no clear signals for investing in this coin yet. The US Federal Reserve will make a decision on the interest rate on Wednesday, July 27. And, most likely, the prospects for the BTC/USD pair will become more distinct after that. A sharp increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the DXY dollar index and a further drop in investor risk appetite. And then the chances of seeing bitcoin at $10,000 will increase dramatically. Otherwise, we'll see it aim for $30,000. It won't take long to find out which of these scenarios will come true. So, dear traders and investors, let's be patient.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- The number of attacks using ransomware has significantly decreased against the backdrop of the fall in the price of bitcoin, experts from the American company SonicWall noted. Researchers counted 236 million ransomware infection attempts in the first half of 2022. This is 23% less compared to the same period last year. According to the report, the number of ransomware incidents peaked in 2021. The targets of the attackers then were large companies that were forced to pay large amounts of cryptocurrency to hackers.

- The price of bitcoin bounced up from the $20,000 level, which concentrated the greatest attraction of speculators. This happened as a result of the transfer of coins from surrendered hodlers to "new" optimistic buyers. Glassnode experts emphasize that there was also demand from speculators earlier at the $30,000 and $40,000 levels.
Glassnode warns that it may take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by such long-term indicators as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

- Peter Brandt, the head of Factor LLC, trader with 45 years of experience, criticized MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who called bitcoin an ensured digital commodity. “It is ensured with energy only because of its excessive consumption, without ensuring an economic function. It's a huge myth that bitcoin is somehow more than just a consumer of energy,” Brandt wrote.
In response, Saylor emphasized that "all products consume energy." According to him, the economic function of bitcoin is to create a free global settlement network. "Since bitcoin is a commodity, it can fulfill the role of global digital money. The economic function is to grant property rights to 8 billion people, as well as to create a global settlement network that has already transferred $17 trillion of value in 2022,” he wrote.
Note that despite the criticisms of bitcoin, this cryptocurrency is one of the largest assets in the portfolio of Peter Brandt.

- Bitcoin continues to resist selling pressure and managed to stabilize above the $20,000 level on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting. According to a number of analysts, the main role in this was played by the whales (investors with a balance of 1000+ and 10000+ BTC), who maintain hodle sentiment and continue to buy bitcoin on exchange rate drawdowns.
It is worth noting the activity of the owners of small BTC balances. For example, the number of addresses with a balance of 0.01+ BTC has reached an all-time high of 10,543,548.

- A well-known analyst named PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, predicted the day when both US stocks and bitcoin reach new all-time highs. “Some people are afraid of macroeconomics, bitcoin's relationship with the stock market, etc.,” he tweeted. “My opinion is that the S&P 500 will be in the range of $5,000-$6,000 over the next 5 years, and bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $1 million.

- Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, said that the adoption of cryptocurrencies is currently best in Latin America, and has huge prospects. The potential is estimated at $128 billion. Digital currencies will be used in various areas of life, primarily as a means of payment.

- Analysts from Forex Suggest analyzed different countries and regions in terms of parameters characterizing the availability of cryptocurrencies for citizens. Several parameters were evaluated: the number and availability of crypto ATMs, regulation of cryptocurrencies at the state level, startup culture, and taxation.
Hong Kong came in first with 8.6 points, ahead of the US and Switzerland with 7.7 and 7.5 points respectively. These two countries have a better cryptocurrency infrastructure and more ATMs per 100,000 people (in the US - 10, Switzerland - 6.5, in Hong Kong - only 2), but Hong Kong won in the availability of these devices for the population due to its compactness.
Low taxes on cryptocurrency income are also important. Hong Kong, Switzerland, Panama, Portugal, Germany, Malaysia and Turkey win here. But the number of requests for cryptocurrencies in search engines is the highest in Australia (4,579 requests per 100,000 population). Ireland and the UK are in second and third place.

- Jim Rogers, a major American investor, co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management, said that it will be necessary to enlist government support for this sector before considering cryptocurrency a reliable investment. BTC is only a gambling tool, not real money. Bitcoin is well suited for speculation but will eventually fail as a currency.
The specialist stressed that he will consider buying BTC if the European Union accepts it as an official currency and introduces it into the region's payment system. However, he will not buy cryptocurrencies at the moment, regardless of the prices at which they can be traded. Recall that Jim Rogers predicted in 2020 that the price of the main cryptocurrency will eventually fall to zero.

- Hollywood producer Ryan Felton pleaded guilty to receiving $2.4 million through a cryptocurrency scam. This is stated in the US Department of Justice press release. He raised the money through an initial coin offering for a streaming platform FLiK. The producer said that the company has the potential to bypass Netflix. In addition, the team behind the platform which was introduced to the market at the height of the 2017 ICO boom, claimed to be entering into licensing agreements with major film and television studios. In addition, Felton promoted another ICO in 2018: the CoinSpark crypto exchange, promising investors a 25% profit in the form of dividends.
As a result, the investors' funds were transferred to Felton's accounts and cashed out. he used them to buy a house for $1.5 million, a Ferrari for $180,000, a Chevrolet Tahoe SUV for $58,250, and jewelry for $30,000.

- British IT engineer James Howells became famous all over the world for admitting that he lost his hard drive in 2013, which contained a wallet with 7,500 BTC. This loser threw a disk from an old computer that he used for mining back in 2009 in a landfill. The poor man did not follow the news and did not know that these bitcoins were worth about a million dollars even at that time.
Almost 10 years have passed since then, but he is still trying to find the loss. James Howels has repeatedly requested the Newport City Administration to organize a massive search for the HDD over the past few years. Officials refused him time after time, citing inevitable environmental problems and a trivial stench throughout the city when digging up the entire territory of the landfill. In 2021, the treasure hunter offered the city authorities 25% of the value of his BTC (about $72 million at that time), but this did not help either.
Now, disillusioned with people, Howels decided to bet on robots. He will order two search robots-dogs of the Spot type worth $75,000 each from the American Boston Dynamics. Iron friends will be nicknamed Satoshi and Hal in honor of the creator of bitcoin and the cryptographer who received the first transaction. It remains a mystery how robot dogs with cameras or even metal detectors will be able to find a laptop HDD in a giant garbage field, already deep under the surface. And what happened to the disc after nine years of lying in a landfill? The magnetic recording is most likely damaged, although there is still a chance to recover information on specialized equipment.

- Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten believes that an unexpected rise in the market is likely, which will be a big surprise for the bears. “Bitcoin skyrocketed from $29,000 to $53,000 last July, up 80% within a month. I suppose that the market can grow up again now and retest the previous consolidation area around $30,000. There are no major resistance zones ahead and the moving averages are leading right into this point, giving bitcoin a great upside opportunity. Most people do not believe in this possibility, but the rally can surprise you with its scale in a market with excessive volumes of derivatives.”
Note that although Merten does not exclude BTC growth in the short term, he doubts that the asset will reach the bottom: “Many believe that the bottom was reached on June 18. Yes, we saw a huge sell-off and a good rebound. The market also got rid of significant amounts of borrowed funds used for crypto speculation. But one cannot discount the reality of the continued impact of the macro market, which will continue to limit long-term investment in cryptocurrencies.”

- The next big rise in cryptocurrency prices will occur before the next halving in the bitcoin network, which is scheduled for May 2024. This is the opinion of financial analyst Florian Grummes, Managing Director of the investment company Midas Touch Consulting. In his opinion, despite the recent minor recovery, the cryptocurrency winter is far from over. The rise to $35,000 will occur in 6-12 months. This will be a so-called "auxiliary rally" that may precede a larger rally.
In the long term, Grummes is confidently optimistic, but warns that since the crypto market is directly correlated with the stock market, one must be prepared for deviations not only upwards, but also downwards at the current stage.
This expert predicted BTC to rise to $100,000 in the 1st quarter of 2022 in the past, which did not happen. Therefore, his forecasts, as well as all other ones, should be treated with sufficient caution now as well.

- Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision Group and former CEO of Goldman Sachs, believes that cryptocurrency markets are preparing for a serious positive trend reversal. The markets are mainly driven by liquidity, which comes from the M2 money supply, he said. This money supply correlates with the total amount of currency in circulation, plus it is highly liquid non-cash assets that can be easily converted into cash.
Most crypto investors believe that miner rewards at the next halving will drive up the price. However, Pal argues that the role of M2 is greater than that of halving: “Cryptocurrency is not driven by the business cycle, but by global liquidity. So the main indicator of the growth of bitcoin is the rate of change of M2. Every time there was an increase in the money supply, there was always a reversal, the specialist says.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: FOMC Meeting Results: Why the Dollar Is Falling and Stocks Are Rising

So, the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve took place on Wednesday, July 27. There were no doubts that the key interest rate would be raised. But how much? By 100 basis points (bp), which has not happened since 1981, or by 75? It seems that the markets were counting on the first option, but the Fed went for the second, softer one. As a result, instead of a new assault on the 1.0000 horizon by the EUR/USD pair, it went up and returned to the 1.0150-1.0270 channel, where it had been moving since July 19. This was followed by an unsuccessful attempt by the bears to break through the lower border of the channel (the reasons are explained below, in the review for the GBP/USD pair) and the finish, which took place at the level of 1.0221.

Speaking at the end of the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to convince everyone that the regulator is still hawkish. He stated that he does not believe in a recession as the labor market and some sectors are still strong. And that the risk of continued high inflation is more significant than the risk of a recession. And that, if necessary, the Fed is ready to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes.

However, the markets did not believe Powell and reacted to the results of the FOMC meeting with a turn towards the stock market. The DXY dollar index fell by 0.7%, but stock indices went up: S&P500 rose by 2.6%, Dow Jones - by 1.4%, NASDAQ - by 4.1%. Oil futures also increased by 3.4%.

It was previously predicted that as a result of monetary restriction, the key rate could reach 3.4% by the end of this year, and it could rise even higher to 3.8% by the end of 2023. Rumors have spread around the market now that the US Central Bank may completely stop raising rates in November, and it will return to the quantitative easing (QE) program in 2023. The main reason is that fighting inflation by raising rates and reducing the budget deficit, despite Powell's soothing assurances, has a negative impact on GDP. And this, in turn, can lead to a deterioration in the situation on the labor market.

What has just been said was confirmed by the macro statistics released on Thursday, July 28. The preliminary estimate of US GDP for the Q2 2022 was minus 0.9% against forecasts from +0.3% to +0.5%.

Thus, the decline in GDP plays against the dollar, as it may push the Fed to a more careful rate hike, much less than its 75 bp increase. at every meeting. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the probability that the regulator will raise the discount rate by only 50 bp in September is almost 80%. The steady decline in the yield of ten-year US government bonds is also playing against the American currency: it fell from 3.4% to 2.68% in just a month. This gives market participants reason to think that inflation is under control and the program of quantitative tightening (QT) can be completed ahead of schedule.

On the other hand, things are not going smoothly in Europe either. Ongoing problems and interruptions in the supply of natural energy resources from Russia are playing against the euro. In response to energy blackmail from the Kremlin, the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen called on the EU countries to prepare for a complete cessation of Russian gas supplies. In her opinion, it is necessary to save resources even in those countries where dependence on Russian energy carriers is small in order to avoid a full-scale collapse.

Klaus Müller, head of Germany's energy regulator (Bundesnetzagentur), believes that the threat of gas shortages will hang over the country for the next two winters, and electricity prices will rise again in August.

Speaking of the Eurozone, it should be noted that the economic data published on Friday, July 29, do not look so intimidating. On the one hand, inflation continues to grow: the consumer price index (CPI), with the previous value of 8.6% and the same forecast, rose actually to 8.9% in July. On the other hand, GDP (y/y, Q2) of the Eurozone, fell to 4.0% instead of the expected fall from 5.4% to 3.4%. The situation with the labor market in Germany also looks good, the number of unemployed fell from 132K to 48K over the month.

As for the near future of the EUR/USD pair, at the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 29, 45% of experts supported its growth, 45% showed it the way to the south and 10% to the east. Indicator readings on D1 do not give definite signals either. As for trend indicators, 50% look south, 50% look north. Oscillators have 35% on the side of the bears, 65% side with the bulls, of which 25% signal the pair is overbought.

With the exception of 1.0200, the closest support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.0150-1.0180 zone, then 1.0100 and, of course, the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone of 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task for the bulls will be to break through the resistance at 1.0250-1.0270 and return to the 1.0400-1.0450 zone, followed by the 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750 zones.

Upcoming events include the publication of business activity indices (ISM) in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the United States on Monday, August 01. The volume of retail sales in Germany will become known the same day. Data on retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as on business activity (ISM) in the US services sector, will be published on Wednesday, August 3. Ф portion of data from the US labor market will arrive at the very end of the working week, on Friday, August 05, including the unemployment rate and such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector.

GBP/USD: BOE Decision Threatens to Become a Sensation

Cautious decisions by the Fed, careful comments by Jerome Powell and disappointing Q2 US economic growth data fueled the GBP/USD rally last week. As a result, the bulls managed to raise the pair to a monthly high of 1.2245 on July 29. The pair briefly went south to 1.2062 in the afternoon of the same day. The dollar was strengthened by the data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the USA. The growth of this inflation indicator in monthly terms amounted to 0.6% (twice higher than the previous value of 0.3% and higher than the forecast of 0.5%). This influenced market sentiment and helped the US currency to start recovering. In addition, July 29 is the last working day of the month, and many investors decided to take profits after the growth of the pound. However, the growth of the dollar did not last long and the last chord of the week sounded at 1.2176.

As for macroeconomic news coming from the United Kingdom next week, we can note the publication of the composite PMI index and the index of business activity in the UK services sector on Wednesday August 3. But the main event of the week will certainly be the meeting of the Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday August 4.

This regulator raised the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25% at its previous meeting on June 16. It would seem that 25 basis points is only a third of the 75 bps by which the Fed raises the rate, but the pound then flew up sharply. The British currency strengthened by 365 points in just a few hours and the GBP/USD pair fixed a local high at 1.2405.

Let's see what happens this time and if it can return to this height. Or is it likely to exceed it? After all, according to forecasts, the BOE may decide to take a desperate step, raising the rate by 150 bps at once, in which case it will be 2.75% and will be higher than the current dollar rate of 2.50%, which will be a significant argument in favor of strengthening the British currency.

At the moment, 35% of experts believe that the British currency will continue to lose ground, 35% on the contrary expect a rebound upwards, and 30% remain neutral. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among trend indicators, the parity is 50% to 50%. Among the oscillators, only 10% side with the bears, 90% indicate growth, of which 15% are in the overbought zone.

Immediate support is at 1.2045, followed by 1.2000 and 1.1875-1.1915 zone. Below is the level of 1.1800, the July 14 low of 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and the lows of March 2020 in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2200-1.2245, 1.2300-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

USD/JPY: Record 500 Pips Down



All the same reasons mentioned above contributed to the strengthening of the Japanese currency. On the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 27, the USD/JPY pair was at a height of 137.45, and having flown by almost 500 points, it already fixed a six-week low at around 132.49 less than two days later. It is possible that such a sharp drop was facilitated by the oversold yen, which updated a 24-year low on July 14.

The publication of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures followed at the very end of the week, on Friday, July 29, causing a temporary rebound of the USD/JPY pair to the height of 134.58, after which the downtrend resumed, and the pair completed the five-day working period at 133.31.

As for the prospects of the Japanese currency, the experts' forecast looks quite neutral, as in the cases of previous pairs. 45% of them are waiting for a new breakthrough of the pair to the north, another 45% hope for a continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 10% talk about a side corridor. The picture is somewhat different in the readings of indicators on D1: trend indicators have a ratio of 65% to 35% in favor of red ones, 25% of oscillators look north, 75% look south, but a third of them give signals that the pair is oversold.

The values of possible slippage and ranges of support/resistance zones have sharply increased due to the ultra-high volatility of the pair. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 132.50-133.00, 131.40, 128.60 and 126.35-127.00. Resistances are 134.20-134.60, 135.00-135.55, 136.30-137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, followed by July 14 high 139.38 and round bull targets­ of 140.00 and 142.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin May Rise. But not soon.

The fact that the US Federal Reserve raised the rate not by 1.0%, but by 0.75% at its meeting on July 27 provided strong support for risky assets, primarily the stock market. Some of the most radical analysts said that the regulator might stop raising rates as early as November, and it would return to the quantitative easing (QE) program in 2023 and start buying assets and building up the balance sheet again, flooding the market with new flows of cheap dollars. The S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices went further up on such joyful expectations for investors, and the quotes of such risky assets as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies followed them.

The price of bitcoin has been holding above the $20,000 level for two weeks now, which has concentrated the greatest attraction of speculators. According to Glassnode experts, this happened as a result of the transfer of coins from surrendered hodlers to "new" optimistic buyers. The specialists emphasize that there was also demand from speculators earlier at the levels of $30,000 and $40,000.

According to a number of analysts, those whales (investors with a balance of 1000+ and 10000+ BTC) who maintain hodle moods and continue to buy bitcoins on exchange rate drawdowns, also contributed to this. The activity of owners of small BTC balances is also noted. For example, the number of addresses with a balance of 0.01+ BTC reached an all-time high of 10,543,548.

Glassnode warns that it may take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by such long-term indicators as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten believes that an unexpected market jump is possible in the current situation, which will be a big surprise for the bears. “Bitcoin skyrocketed from $29,000 to $53,000 last July, up 80% within a month. I suppose that the market can grow up again now and retest the previous consolidation area around $30,000. There are no major resistance zones ahead and the moving averages are leading right into this point, giving bitcoin a great upside opportunity. Most people do not believe in this possibility, but the rally can surprise you with its scale in a market with excessive volumes of derivatives.”

Note that although Merten does not rule out BTC rising in the short term, he doubts that the asset has already hit the bottom: “Many people believe that the bottom was reached on June 18. Yes, we saw a huge sell-off and a good rebound. The market also got rid of significant amounts of borrowed funds used for crypto speculation. But one cannot discount the reality of the continued impact of the macro market, which will continue to limit long-term investment in cryptocurrencies.”

A similar thought was expressed by analyst Aaron Chomsky. He believes that the exit of the BTC/USD pair from the side channel through the upper border can only become a trigger for a further fall in prices. He expects a reversal and a breakdown of the lower border of the channel with the target of $17,500. At the same time, Aaron Chomsky believes that the goal of $10,000 is also quite realistic. “Apparently, we are in for a long period of crypto winter,” the expert writes. “Bitcoin is targeting $5-7k, while any delay, like what we are seeing now, forces us to revise the final targets down.”

And the “lower side,” according to Jim Rogers, co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management, could be a drop in the price of bitcoin to zero. This major American investor said that you need to get the support of governments regarding this sector before considering cryptocurrency as a safe investment. BTC is only a gambling tool, not real money. Bitcoin is well suited for speculation but will eventually fail as a currency.

Jim Rogers emphasized that he would consider buying BTC if the European Union accepted it as the official currency and introduced it into the region's payment system. However, his statement can only be taken as a sarcastic joke, since the EU is unlikely to take such a step in the next decade.

Of course, in contrast to the skeptics who are ready to bury the crypto market, there are always optimists who predict a bright future for bitcoin. For example, Real Vision Group co-founder and former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal believes that the cryptocurrency markets are preparing for a major positive trend reversal. The markets are mainly driven by liquidity, which comes from the M2 money supply, he said. This money supply correlates with the total amount of currency in circulation, plus it is highly liquid non-cash assets that can be easily converted into cash.

Most crypto investors believe that miner reward cuts at the next halving, which is scheduled for May 2024, will drive the price up. However, Pal argues that the role of M2 is greater than that of halving: “Cryptocurrency is not driven by the business cycle, but by global liquidity. So the main indicator of the growth of bitcoin is the rate of change of M2. Every time there was an increase in the money supply, there was always a reversal, the specialist says.

It is appropriate to recall what we talked about at the very beginning of the review. If the Fed actually returns from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), and there is extra money in the market, investor appetite for risky assets will definitely go up.

Raoul Pal is also right that many investors expect the next big rise in cryptocurrency prices to occur before the next halving. Moreover, such expectations are based on quite convincing historical data. One of the proponents of this scenario is financial analyst Florian Grummes, managing director of investment firm Midas Touch Consulting. In his opinion, despite the current rise, the cryptocurrency winter is far from over. The rise to $35,000, in his opinion, will occur only in 6-12 months. And this will be a so-called "auxiliary rally" that may precede larger rally in the future.

In the long term, Grummes is confidently optimistic, but warns that since the crypto market is directly correlated with the stock market, one must be prepared for deviations not only upwards, but also downwards at the current stage.

The biggest optimist last week was the well- known analyst under the nickname PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model. He predicted the day when both US stocks and bitcoin would reach new all-time highs. “Some people are afraid of macroeconomics, bitcoin's relationship with the stock market, etc.,” he tweeted. “My opinion is that the S&P 500 will be in the range of $5,000-$6,000 over the next 5 years, and bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $1 million.

The prospects are wonderful of course. But both PlanB and Florian Grummes have already been wrong in their predictions. Therefore, their forecasts, as well as all other ones, should be treated with sufficient caution now as well. The only thing that persists is that at the time of writing this review (Friday evening July 28), bitcoin is trading around $23,900. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.098 trillion ($1.026 trillion a week ago), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone at 39 points (33 points a week ago).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in July 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The maximum profit in July was received by a client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1627XXX. This trader managed to earn 47,976 USD on transactions on the GBP/JPY currency pair.

The second line in the rating of the most successful traders was taken by his compatriot, account No. 1633XXX, who earned 31,652 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to trades in gold (XAU/USD).

The third step on the July podium also went to the representative of Southeast Asia (Account No. 1397XXX), whose result was 25,652 USD. In addition to transactions with bitcoin (BTC/USD) and gold (XAU/USD), transactions with ethereum (ETH/USD) appeared in the TOP-3 for the first time.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

In CopyTrading, the “veteran” signal KennyFXPRO once again attracts attention: Journey of $205 to $5,000, which has shown a profit of 374% for the period from March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of about 67%. At the same time, it should be noted that this drawdown occurred quite a long time ago, in mid-October 2021, and the trader had to raise the leverage to 1:337 to get out of it. After that, nothing similar was observed, and the leverage has not exceeded 1:40.

If you decide to subscribe to this signal, we strongly advise you to read the recommendations given in the description by its author. It contains a lot of interesting information and gives an explanation of the name of the signal "of $205 to $5,000".

Other signals from this provider include KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K (the profit on it has been 178% for 453 days of its life with a drawdown of a little more than 45%, which happened at the same time, in October 2021). And the third signal of the same author, KennyFXPRO - The Cannon Ball appeared on the CopyTrading showcase 121 days ago, the profit on it is moderate, about 33%, but the drawdown is less than 7%.

It is for the second month in a row that we also mark the BSTAR signal in the CopyTrading service (profit 48% / max. drawdown 14% / days of life 163). As for startups, there have been quite a few of them lately. We note only one: PT_Bot Scalping (26%/3%/29).

The TOP-3 in thePAMM service has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO . The capital on on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 127% in 552 days. The top three also includes: the account TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3, which showed a profit of 96% in 483 days, and the account NKFX-Ninja 136 , which has brought in an income of 82% since June 11, 2021. All these three signals have a very moderate maximum drawdown of about 21%. There is another interesting account, COEX.Investment - Treis, with a profit of 47% for 272 days with a drawdown of less than 20%.

The commissions of TOP 3 NordFX IB Partners in July were as follows:
- the largest commission, 10,388 USD, was credited to a partner from Southeast Asia, account No.1371ХXХ;
- next is the partner from South Asia, account No. 1507XXX, who received 8,953 USD;
- and, finally, another partner from Southeast Asia closes the TOP-3, account No. 1630ХХХ, which received 4,057 USD as a reward.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- The increase in the outflow of cryptocurrencies from exchanges and the growth of net inflow to stablecoins signal a bullish momentum in the market. This conclusion was made by analysts of Bank of America. They noted the “easing of pressure from sellers” with the transition of the initiative to buyers of digital assets. The experts pointed to the stability of the trend despite the Fed's increase in the key rate by 0.75% at once.
Bank of America estimated the amount of withdrawn bitcoins from cryptocurrency platforms to cold wallets at ~$508 million, ethereum at ~$381 million (data from July 2 to August 1). The first asset has risen in price by 19% over this period, the latter - by 56%.

- If bitcoin holds the $20,700 level, the price will soon be in the $27,000-$28,000 range. This is stated in the latest report from Arcane Research. A series of rising local lows has been forming on the chart since July. But “if bitcoin falls below $20,700, it will mark a falling low. This is a bearish signal in the context of technical analysis.”
The company emphasized that much depends on the dynamics of the US stock market, with which the price of bitcoin is closely correlated. The dynamics of the Fed's key rate also plays an important role. “Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and thus cause stock prices to fall. Tech stocks are declining the most. As the degree of institutionalization has increased, bitcoin has become closely associated with traditional financial markets,” the researchers explained. According to them, if the stock market continues to fall, the downtrend of digital gold will continue.

- On the contrary, Glassnode has doubted the continuation of bitcoin's recovery rally. The rise in prices of BTC and ethereum in recent days is not accompanied by a fundamental improvement in the readings of on-chain indicators. And this does not give confidence in a fundamental change in the market situation, the company's analysts believe.
The number of active bitcoin addresses remains within the downtrend channel. With the exception of brief bursts during periods of capitulation, network activity remains subdued. This indicates a small influx of new demand. Similar trends are observed in the ethereum blockchain. Despite the recent powerful price movement, the network load in terms of the number of transactions has been systematically decreasing since May 2021 to the lowest levels since the summer of 2020.
There has been a surge in activity in recent weeks, which analysts have associated with the consolidation of coins in wallets. They explained that they would change their mind if this trend proved sustainable. Glassnode experts had previously warned that it might take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by long-term indicators such as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

- North Korean hackers plagiarize online resumes from legitimate LinkedIn and Indeed profiles to get remote jobs at US cryptocurrency companies. This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to security specialists from Mandiant Inc. As a rule, North Koreans communicate actively on the profile site GitHub, pretending to be from other countries, ascribe to themselves specialization in the technology industry and extensive experience in software development. After getting a job, they are engaged in theft and laundering of illegally obtained digital assets. Naturally, the DPRK government denies any involvement in such crimes.

- The crypto analyst aka Dave the Wave, who correctly predicted the collapse of the crypto market in May 2021, is now talking about the approach of a bullish rally. The basis for this, according to him, are the signals of the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, which was accurate to indicate the 300% BTC rally in 2019.
Dave the Wave noted that many traders are currently concerned about the uncertainty that is caused by macro-economic factors. However, in his opinion, these factors may not have such a strong impact on bitcoin as the market thinks. “Despite macro factors, BTC is doing its job,” the analyst said optimistically.

- According to Mark Yusko, managing partner at Morgan Creek Digital, the current structure of the bitcoin market indicates a bottoming out process. “I am not ready to say unequivocally so far whether the bottom has been reached,” the investor said. “But if you look back, you can see that bitcoin has made several higher lows and highs. […] This is a pretty good bullish trend, and a crypto spring is possible.”
Yusko agrees with the narrative that the main cryptocurrency goes through speculative cycles. In his opinion, BTC is in the “spring” part of the cycle and forms the basis for the next “summer” bull run, which should occur shortly before the next halving (2024): “In my opinion, the crypto spring has begun. If we look at the last two cycles, we see the same number of days in the cycle where spring began and winter ended. The crypto spring can last for months, and we don't need a bull market right now. When we get to the crypto summer, we will see the next bull run and it should happen in anticipation of the next halving in 2024.”
The head of Morgan Creek also believes that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair. In his opinion, despite the forecasts of experts about a possible fall below $18,000, the "fair value" of the coin should be about $30,000.
Recall that Yusko said last year that the price of the asset could soar to $250,000 by 2026. He also suggested that the market cap of BTC will be equal to the market cap of gold, as this digital asset has become a “perfect store of value” and is on its way to replacing the precious metal.

- Crypto trader and investor Bob Loukas agrees that halvings are driving market trends. And after bitcoin hits a new all-time high, the digital asset market, in his opinion, could plunge into a “true crypto winter” in 2026.
According to the Bob Lucas model, bitcoin market movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, consisting of four micro cycles of 4 years each. In this case, the cycles must be counted from one local low to another. “In theory, bitcoin’s 2026 lows could form below the 2022 lows. Although, it’s hard to believe,” the investor said.
Recall that halving is a two-fold reduction in the reward to miners for a mined block in the blockchain embedded in the bitcoin code. Initially, miners received 50 BTC, this amount decreased to 25 BTC on November 28, 2012, to 12.5 BTC on July 9, 2016, to 6.25 BTC on May 11, 2020. The next reward cut to 3.125 BTC is expected in 2024 at block number 840,000.

- According to the results of July, receipts in cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $474 million (the maximum since the beginning of the year), $81 million for the week from July 23 to July 29. The influx continued for the fifth week in a row. Such data is provided by CoinShares experts. On the other hand, trading activity remains low. The volume of transactions with crypto products at the end of the last reporting week amounted to $1.3 billion, which is almost half the average since the beginning of the year ($2.4 billion).

- Jurrien Timmer, a macroeconomist at one of the largest American holding companies Fidelity, said that bitcoin and ethereum are comparable in terms of their market share and level of dominance in crypto industry with such a tech giant as Apple. “According to Metcalfe's law, the larger an ecosystem becomes, the more its value grows exponentially. Apple is an example. [...] The more iPhones and other devices it sells, the more exponentially it grows. And it grows until it becomes so powerful that a giant abyss forms around it, which cannot be overcome even if something much better than the iPhone is invented tomorrow,” the expert is sure.
Trimmer believes that other crypto projects will continue to compete with the two leading digital assets, but will not be able to win against the giant ecosystems of BTC and ETH.

- Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead believes the digital asset market has nearly bottomed out. There are still companies that are in the process of liquidation in bankruptcy court. However, the largest defaults have already occurred in May and June, when the pressure on the industry reached its peak. “I think we are really close to the end of the market crisis. The market has been falling for eight months now. We observed the most severe manifestations of the crisis in November, May and June. It seems that we have seen everything that we should have,” said the CEO of Pantera Capital.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: Unexpected Positive News from the US

EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for almost three weeks. Timid attempts to break through the upper or lower border of the channel have ended in failure each time. Could it be the summer holiday season to blame? Most likely, the reason is the unexpected economic statistics from the US and the vague prospects that have caused the market confusion.

The US Manufacturing Business Activity Index (ISM) published on Monday, August 01 turned out unexpectedly to be higher than the forecast, 52.8 against 52.0. The index of business activity in the services sector from Markit, which became known on Wednesday, August 03, showed an increase to 47.3 against 47.0 points. The same indicator, but from the US official departments (ISM) also showed an increase to 56.7 points (55.3 a month ago, forecast 53.5). Does it turn out that not everything is so bad in the US economy, it has a serious margin of safety, even despite high energy prices and an aggressive rate hike by the Fed?

Recall that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve took place on July 27, at which the key interest rate was raised by another 75 basis points (bp). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the end of the meeting, tried to convince everyone that the regulator still retains a hawkish attitude. And that the Fed is ready to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes if necessary. However, the markets did not believe Powell and reacted to the results of the FOMC meeting with a turn towards the stock market.

Some experts do not rule out that the peak of inflation in the US has already passed. The main driver of its growth was high energy prices as noted above. However, the Core Consumer Price Index, although it is at high levels, has already decreased by 0.6% since March.

The labor market is also doing well. Unemployment in the US has been holding at 3.6% since March, which is a very good indicator. And it became even less in July, 3.5%. And such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector, which was published on Friday, August 5, with a forecast of 250K, actually reached 528K. And this despite the fact that it was 372K a month earlier.

Jerome Powell said that he did not believe in a recession, as the labor market and a number of sectors of the economy are quite strong. And that the risk of continued high inflation is more significant than the risk of a recession. However, if inflation goes down, and the country's GDP does not show convincing positive dynamics, the scale may tilt towards easing the Fed's monetary policy. It was previously predicted that the key rate could reach 3.4% as a result of monetary restriction, by the end of this year, and rise even higher, up to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The market is currently preparing for the fact that the FOMC may raise the rate not by 0.75%, but by only 0.50% in September, it will stop raising rates altogether in November, and it will return to the quantitative easing (QE) program altogether in 2023.

While the economic situation in the US looks better than expected, according to the latest data, it has definitely worsened in Europe. Retail sales in Germany fell to minus 8.8% on an annualized basis, while they showed an increase to +1.1% a month ago. On the whole, the picture in the Eurozone is just as gloomy: the same indicator fell from +0.4% to -3.7% (against the forecast of -1.7%). This is due to the fact that the population lacks an understanding of what awaits them in the near future. People are afraid of further price increases, primarily because of problems with the supply of energy from Russia. And the possibility of an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict into the EU does not inspire optimism. There is no need to talk about the fear of Russia's use of nuclear weapons.

After the publication of positive data from the US labor market on Friday, August 05, the dollar strengthened somewhat, and the EUR/USD pair closed the five-day period at 1.0180. Like a week ago, 45% of experts vote for the fact that it will still break through the lower border of the channel 1.0100-1.0270, 45% show it the way to the north and 10% - further to the east. As for the oscillators on D1, 25% side with the bears, 60% side with the bulls, and 15% have taken a neutral position. The signals are clearer among trend indicators: 90% look south and only 10% look north.

The nearest support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.01500 zone, then 1.0100-1.0120, then, of course, there is the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone. 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task for the bulls will be to break through the 1.0200 resistance, after which they need to rise to the 1.0250-1.0270 zone. The next target is a return to the 1.0400-1.0450 zone, followed by the 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750 zones.

As for the forthcoming events, the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI) on Wednesday, August 10 should be noted. This package will be supplemented on Thursday and Friday: August 11 - Producer Price Index (PPI) and August 12 - Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA. As for the news from Europe, the value of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index in Germany will become known on August 10.

GBP/USD: Bank of England: No Sensation Happened

The main event of the week could have certainly been the meeting of the Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday August 04. It could have been, but it wasn't. Some investors had hoped that the regulator would take a desperate step and raise the rate by 150 bp at once. In this case, it would overtake the current dollar rate (2.50%), which would be a weighty argument in favor of strengthening the British currency. However, the sensation did not happen. The Bank of England raised the rate by 50 bp, bringing it to 1.75%, which had been previously taken into account by the market in quotes.

The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Bank of England turned out to be quite boring as well. If any of its 9 members wanted to raise the rate by 75 bp, it would be taken as a positive development for the pound. And vice versa: the desire to raise the rate by only 25 bp. would put additional pressure on the British currency. But, as is clear from the minutes, all 9 members of the Committee voted unanimously for raising the rate exactly by 50 bp.

The revised economic forecasts turned out to be quite gloomy, and BOE management's post-meeting statements were hazy dovish. According to the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, the current rate hike by 50 bp does not mean that the bank will do the same at each subsequent meeting. “Interest rates will not go back to where they were before the financial crisis,” said Andrew Bailey vaguely. “And we don’t know what normal interest rates will be in the future.” BOE chief economist Hugh Pill added to the haze saying that "the equilibrium level of interest rates is very uncertain."

As a result of the absence of any benchmarks, the GBP/USD pair, having fluctuated between the levels of 1.2064 and 1.2214, returned to the center of this range on Thursday, August 04. On Friday, on the news from the US labor market, it fell to a strong support of 1.2000, and finished at 1.2070.

According to a third of analysts, the past week did not bring anything good to the pound, and therefore the pair will continue its fall. The opposite point of view is also held by a third of the experts, another third remains neutral. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 90% to 10% in favor of the red ones. Among the oscillators, only 35% side with the bears, 25% indicate growth, 40% have taken a neutral position.

The nearest support is located at the level of 1.2000-1.2025, followed by the zone 1.1875-1.1925. Below is the level of 1.1800, the low of July 14 is 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and the lows of March 2020. in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100-1.2130, 1.2170-1.2215, 1.2245, 1.2280-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

In terms of macro news coming out of the UK, Friday 12 August could be marked next week. Data on the country's GDP and production in the UK manufacturing industry will be published on this day.

USD/JPY: High Volatility, Neutral Outlook

Looking at the chart, the 134.60-137.00 range is quite attractive for both bulls and bears on the USD/JPY pair. It traded in it from mid-June to early July, and it returned to it at the end of last week. Having started on Monday August 01 from the level of 133.31, the pair reached the local bottom at the level of 130.37 the next day. This was followed by a reversal and the dollar began to actively win back losses. As a result, the last chord sounded at a height of 135.00.

As for the prospects of the Japanese currency, the experts' forecast looks quite neutral, as in the cases of previous pairs. 45% of them are waiting for a new breakthrough of the pair to the north, another 45% hope for a continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 10% talk about a side corridor. The picture is somewhat different in the readings of indicators on D1 and is rather multidirectional. Trend indicators have a ratio of 85% to 15% in favor of green ones. Oscillators have the opposite: 60% look to the north, 40% to the east, while the number of supporters of the downtrend is 0%.

The values of possible slippage and ranges of support/resistance zones have sharply increased due to the ultra-high volatility of the pair. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 134.75, 134.25, 132.60-133.15, 131.50, 130.40, 128.60 and 126.35-127.00. Resistances are 136.35-137.00, 137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, followed by the July 14 high of 139.38 and round bull targets¬ of 140.00 and 142.00.

No major events regarding the Japanese economy are expected this week. The only thing to keep in mind is the public holiday on Thursday August 11, when Japan celebrates Mountain Day. This is the youngest public holiday; it was established in 2014 at the initiative of environmental and tourism organizations in order to support the citizens' love for the nature of their country and give the Japanese "the opportunity to get to know the mountains and feel the grace emanating from them."

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Influencers Talk about a Very Long Crypto Spring



The price of bitcoin fell to $17,597 on June 18, in line with December 2020 levels and almost 75% below its all-time high of $68,918. The BTC/USD pair slowly crept up from that moment on, demonstrating a series of rising lows and highs over 7 weeks. Moreover, the volatility of the pair gradually increased: if it was about $3,150 at the beginning, it exceeded $4,000 by the end of July.

Disputes have not subsided about what happened on June 18 over the past month and a half: did bitcoin find the bottom? Or is it just the middle of the crypto-winter, and the real frosts are yet to come?

At the time of writing, Friday evening, August 05, the total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.089 trillion ($1.098 trillion a week ago), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the fear zone, at a level of 31 points (39 a week ago). The BTC/USD pair is trading in the $22,900 zone.

According to Arcane Research analysts, if bitcoin holds the $20,700 level, the price will soon be in the $27,000-$28,000 range. But “if bitcoin falls below $20,700, it will mark a falling low. This is a bearish signal in the context of technical analysis.” Arcane Research emphasized that much depends on the dynamics of the US stock market, with which the price of bitcoin is closely correlated. The dynamics of the Fed's key rate also plays an important role. “Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and thus cause stock prices to fall. Tech stocks are declining the most. As the degree of institutionalization has increased, bitcoin has become closely associated with traditional financial markets,” the researchers explained. According to them, if the stock market continues to fall, the downtrend of digital gold will continue. (Note that the S&P500 is currently trading around the important support/resistance zone of 4.100-4.150. But according to Goldman Sachs, the US stock market is headed for another big sell-off.)

Glassnode is also unsure about the continuation of bitcoin's recovery momentum. The rise in prices of BTC and Ethereum in recent days has not been accompanied by a fundamental improvement in the readings of on-chain indicators. And this does not give confidence in a fundamental change in the market situation, the company's analysts believe.

The number of active bitcoin addresses remains within the downtrend channel. With the exception of brief bursts during periods of capitulation, network activity remains subdued. This indicates a small influx of new demand. Similar trends are observed in the Ethereum blockchain. Despite the recent powerful price movement, the network load in terms of the number of transactions has been systematically decreasing since May 2021 to the lowest levels since the summer of 2020.

There has been a surge in activity in recent weeks, which analysts have associated with the consolidation of coins in wallets. They explained that they would change their mind if this trend proved sustainable. Glassnode experts had previously warned that it might take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by long-term indicators such as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

Bank of America estimated the volume of withdrawn bitcoins from cryptocurrency platforms to cold wallets at ~$508 million, Ethereum at ~$381 million (data from July 2 to August 1). The first asset has risen in price by 19% over this period, the latter - by 56%. However, the conclusions of the bank's specialists look more optimistic than those of their colleagues from Glassnode. So, in their opinion, the increase in the outflow of cryptocurrencies from exchanges and the growth in net inflows into stablecoins signal a bullish market momentum. At the same time, Bank of America noted the “easing of pressure from sellers” and the transition of the initiative to buyers of digital assets. Experts also pointed to the sustainability of the trend, even despite the fact that the Fed raised key rates by 0.75% on July 27.

Trader and investor Bob Loukas, like many other members of the crypto community, agrees that halvings are driving market trends. The next one is expected in 2024 at block number 840,000. And after bitcoin hits a new all-time high, the digital asset market, according to Bob Lucas, may plunge into a “real crypto winter” in 2026.

According to his model, bitcoin market movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, consisting of four micro cycles of 4 years each. In this case, the cycles must be counted from one local low to another. “Although it’s hard to believe, in theory, bitcoin’s 2026 lows could form below the 2022 lows,” the investor said.

Mark Yusko, managing partner at Morgan Creek Digital, agrees with the narrative that the main cryptocurrency goes through speculative cycles. In his opinion, BTC is now in the "spring" part of the cycle and forms the basis for the next "summer" bull run, which should occur shortly before the 2024 halving. “In my opinion, the crypto spring has begun,” Yusko writes. "If we look at the last two cycles, we will see the same number of days in the cycle where spring began, and winter ended. The crypto spring can last for months, and we don't need a bull market right now. When we get to the crypto summer, we will see the next bull run and it should happen in anticipation of the next halving in 2024.”

According to Morgan Creek Digital CEO, the current structure of the bitcoin market points to the process of reaching the bottom. “I am not ready to say unequivocally so far whether the bottom has been reached,” the investor said. “But if you look back, you can see that bitcoin has made several higher lows and highs. […] This is a pretty good bullish trend, and a crypto spring is possible.”

Mark Yusko also believes that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair. In his opinion, despite the forecasts of experts about a possible fall below $18,000, the "fair value" of the coin should be about $30,000 at the moment, and it could soar to $250,000 by 2026.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, like Mark Yusko, thinks that after the collapse caused by the bankruptcy of Three Arrows, Celsius and Voyager, the worst of the “bearish” moments for the crypto sector is over. And he also points to 2026, warning that the term of investments in digital assets should be at least 4 or 5 years. As for the “fair value” of bitcoin, it, in his opinion, should now be in the region of $40,000.

Another top manager, Pantera Capital's CEO, Dan Morehead, shares a similar opinion. Like his colleagues, he believes that the digital asset market has almost bottomed out. There are still companies that are in the process of liquidation in bankruptcy court. However, the largest defaults have already occurred in May and June, when the pressure on the industry reached its peak. “I think we are really close to the end of the market crisis. The market has been falling for eight months now. We observed the most severe manifestations of the crisis in November, May and June. It seems that we have seen everything that we should have,” said the CEO of Pantera Capital.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- Bitcoin Core team member Matt Corallo called the maximalists of the first cryptocurrency an “endangered species” and urged them to stop attacking other projects. According to him, the “most vocal proponents” are attacking other communities counterproductively instead of promoting the “greatness and uniqueness” of digital gold. In his opinion, in the context of the current policy of confronting projects in the crypto community, many of the Ethereum community (as with Ripple before) will begin to set regulators against bitcoin, relying on ecology.

- Law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Kazakhstan conducted a special operation, as a result of which the gang that controlled cryptominers was neutralized. 23 people were detained during several raids. Weapons, black bookkeeping, as well as more than 6,000 items of mining equipment worth about $7 million were seized during the searches. It is reported that the criminals made a profit of $300-500 thousand per month due to the activities of the mining farms under their control.

- The number of cryptocurrency ATMs worldwide has increased to 39,015, according to the Coin ATM Radar service. The figure was 25,154 a year ago. The United States holds the leading position by a wide margin: 87.9% of the total number of bitcoin ATMs are concentrated there. Canada ranks second with 6.3%.

– Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount in a sustained bull market. This was stated by Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “The first cryptocurrency hit an all-time low in July compared to its 100-week moving average,” he explained.
The analyst emphasized the high importance of the stock market, with which bitcoin shows a noticeable correlation, and mentioned the key role of the US Federal Reserve, which is pursuing aggressive rate hikes in 2022. This could potentially create barriers to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks. At the same time, Mike McGlone urged not to try to fight the Fed.

- Some on-chain indicators signaled the passing of the capitulation period and an improvement in investor sentiment in July. This is stated in an analytical report by ForkLog. Against the background of consolidation and the subsequent smooth recovery of the price of bitcoin, the Puell Multiple indicator began to exit the deep oversold zone. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has moved into the hope/fear zone and is heading towards optimism. The MVRV Z-Score crossed the upper boundary of the deep oversold zone at 0.1 on July 28. This is another signal about the passage of the "bottom" of the market cycle.

- An analyst with the nickname Guy noted that the release of economic data expected this month could have a significant impact on the crypto markets. According to him, 3 important factors can interrupt the current uptrend. The first is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). “PCE data for July will be released on August 26. Given that PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, a high value could lead to markets collapse in anticipation of an aggressive rate hike."
The second factor is the US gross domestic product for the second quarter: “Revised GDP data for the second quarter will also be published on August 26. Pay attention to them. If these figures are revised upwards, that is, in fact, the US will no longer be in a technical recession, this may push the Fed to raise interest rates even more.”
And finally, the third factor is the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, where US financial authorities, prominent figures from Central banks and a number of other sectors discuss global economic problems. The symposium will take place from August 25 to 27, which coincides with the release dates of the two above-mentioned statistics.
These factors could influence the decisions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will have a cascading effect on the crypto market. “If the statistics turn out to be unimportant, and Powell is not in the best mood, then the crypto market will have a bad time. Although there are chances that he will keep his thoughts to himself long enough for the cryptocurrency market to continue its recovery rally.”

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment company Galaxy Digital, said that bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $30,000 anytime soon. He noted in an interview with Bloomberg that he does not observe an influx of institutional investors into the first cryptocurrency at the moment. The billionaire himself “would be happy” if BTC stopped for a while in the range of $20,000 to $30,000.
(Note that a recent survey of institutional investors by Cumberland showed that the majority of respondents expect bitcoin to rise to $32,000 by the end of the year.)
As for ethereum, Mike Novogratz believes that this altcoin could reach the $2,200 mark, given the momentum leading up to the upgrade to change the consensus algorithm from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which is expected in end of September.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that the market has not yet taken into account the upcoming transition of the network to Proof-of-Stake, which should take place in September. “Once the merger actually happens, I expect investor sentiment to improve,” he said. “In my opinion, […] the main impact on the ETH rate will be provided after the completion of the merger process.”

- The World Tourism Organization at the UN has included El Salvador in its list. According to the President of the country Nayib Bukele, it was bitcoin that helped the significant growth of the tourism industry. The head of state stressed that only a few countries managed to return tourism indicators to pre-pandemic levels. The adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, as well as the creation of a "bitcoin beach", has attracted tourists from all over the world to El Salvador. The President also noted the growth of domestic tourism due to the decrease in crime. Nayib Bukele presented statistics from the search giant Google: El Salvador is marked on the map as a country with "higher than expected" tourist activity.
Morena Valdez, Minister of Tourism of El Salvador, said earlier that tourism in the country has grown by 30% thanks to bitcoin. At the same time, cryptocurrency enthusiasts stay in El Salvador for a longer period and spend more money. If the daily expenses of a tourist in the country ranged from $113 to $150 earlier, they exceed $200 now.

- The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the largest investment company BlackRock entered into a partnership agreement last week. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion in assets at the moment. Based on this, a popular crypto analyst under the nickname InvestAnswers believes that the influx of funds into cryptocurrencies from BlackRock clients could push the BTC rate to $773,000.
“If BlackRock places 0.5% of its assets in BTC, then, taking into account the leverage, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase by $1.05 trillion, which means the price will rise to $75,000. And this, I think, is very likely. If BlackRock clients stake 1% of their holdings, then the capitalization will increase by $2.1 trillion, and bitcoin will reach $173,000. And if BlackRock places 5% of its assets, the bitcoin rate will reach $773,000. Although I think this is too aggressive, it may be possible within 3-5 years,” the analyst wrote. (It should be noted here that InvestAnswers calculations are correct only for investments with a leverage of 1:21 or more).

- According to Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, crypto winter is probably coming to an end, and spring is just around the corner. “I think we've already seen the worst. There's still a little more to go, but it's not that bad,” said the multi-billionaire, better known as SBF. “Some bitcoin miners might have some problems, but I think we are talking about a few hundred million dollars in total pain, not billions.”
However, the SBF’s spring forecast was not without a “but”: “If Nasdaq is left to fall another 25%, and if interest rates do rise to 7%, and if we are in a recession for two and a half years […], bitcoin could drop to $15,000 or $10,000,” said the CEO of FTX.
The crypto winter froze a number of once-thriving companies such as Three Arrows Capital, Terraform Labs and Voyager Digital, but FTX survived the cold. Commenting on the incident, its head said that the recession "became a healthy weed" for the industry.

- Despite the decline in the price of the first cryptocurrency in 2022, the number of addresses with a balance of 1 BTC and more is growing steadily (+9.4% since the beginning of the year). The indicator reached a historical high of 891.009 at the end of July. The situation is even more pronounced with balances of more than 1 ETH, the number of which has grown by 15.7% over seven months.
This trend indicates the desire of investors to accumulate. Analytical resource The Balance posted a report stating that 39% of US investors began to invest more in cryptocurrencies. According to the author of the report, these Americans are looking for new areas of investment to maintain their savings amid economic uncertainty. Among millennials and Gen Z investors (aged 41 and younger), almost 50% prefer cryptocurrencies. Among investors of generation X and older, they are just under a third.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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EUR/USD: Weak Inflation Weakens Dollar



EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for more than three weeks. Attempts to break through its upper or lower border ended in failure each time. Even very strong data on the US labor market, which came out in the first week of August, did not help the dollar. Recall that unemployment in the US has remained at 3.6% since March, which is a very good indicator. And it became even lower in July, 3.5%. And such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, with a forecast of 250K, actually reached 528K. And this despite the fact that it was 372K a month earlier.

The sideways movement continued until Wednesday, August 10, when the pair moved sharply higher, turning the 1.0270 level from resistance to support. And the point here is not the strengthening of the euro, but the weakening of the dollar. The position of the American currency deteriorated after the release of the US inflation report. The consumer price index (CPI) with a forecast of 0.2% in July turned out to be at the level of 0.0% (1.3% a month earlier). It decreased from 9.1% to 8.5% (forecast 8.7%) on an annualized basis. Instead of the expected 0.5%, the base CPI grew by only 0.3% in July (0.7% a month earlier).

All these figures indicate clearly that inflation, the war against which the Fed launched, is declining. Of course, this is not a final victory, but the success of the American Central Bank is obvious. Therefore, it may soften its monetary policy somewhat and not raise interest rates as aggressively as it has done in the past two months.

Speaking at the end of the July meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to convince everyone that the regulator is still hawkish. And that, if necessary, the Fed is ready to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. However, even then the markets did not believe Powell and reacted by turning towards the stock market. And now the inflation data has become another argument in favor of the fact that the FOMC may raise the rate not by 0.75%, but only by 0.50% in September, stop raising rates altogether in November, and return to the quantitative easing program altogether in 2023.

Of course, this is just a forecast so far. More precisely, not even a forecast, but just expectations. But it was them that continued to push stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq up, and did not allow the EUR/USD pair to fall again to the parity of 1.0000. Not yet.

EUR/USD ended the past week at 1.0260, returning to the medium-term sideways channel of 1.0100-1.0270. 45% of experts vote for the fact that it will go further down, and maybe even break through the lower border of the channel. 35% show it the way to the north and 20% - to the east. As for the oscillators on D1, 40% are colored red, 40% are green, and 20% are neutral gray. There is complete balance among the trend indicators: 50% look south and 50% look north.

The nearest support for the pair is the level 1.0220, then there are zones 1.01500-1.0200 and 1.0095-1.0120. The bears' main target is, of course, 1.0000. If this key level is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone of 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task of the bulls will be a breakout of the upper border of the channel 1.0270, then there is a high of the past week in the area of 1.0364-1.0368, the next target is a return to the zone 1.0400-1.0450, then there are zones 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750.

The coming week will be full of all sorts of economic statistics. Thus, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany will be published on Tuesday, August 16. there will be preliminary data on Eurozone GDP (Q2) on Wednesday, August 17, as well as data on retail sales in the US. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be published on the same day. We are waiting for data on European inflation (CPI) on Thursday, August 18, as well as on the labor market, home sales and manufacturing activity in the United States.

GBP/USD: GDP Falls, Forecasts Remain Gloomy

GBP/USD reacted to the US inflation data released on Wednesday, August 10, with a jump north by almost 200 points to the height of 1.2276. True, it failed to stay there, and the last chord sounded at around 1.2135. Even the global rise in risk sentiment did not help the pound. The main reason is the gloomy economic prospects for the UK economy and no less gloomy forecasts of the Bank of England.

UK GDP data for both June and Q2 were released on Friday, August 12. The June contraction turned out to be less than expected: -0.6%, while the forecast was -1.2%. The fall in GDP in April-June amounted to -0.1% against the expected -0.2% and +0.8% in Q1. Accordingly, the annual figure was 2.9% against the forecasted 2.8% and 8.7% in Q1. All these data turned out to be slightly better than expected. But, despite this, the slide of the economy into recession is an obvious fact, and the only question that remains is the depth and duration of such a fall.

According to 55% of analysts, the last week did not bring anything good to the pound, and therefore the pair will continue its fall. The opposite point of view is also held by only 15% of experts, the remaining 30% remain neutral. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. As for the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the red ones. Only 25% of the oscillators side with the bears, 35% indicate growth, 40% have taken a neutral position.

The nearest support is located at 1.2100, followed by zones and levels 1.2045-1.2065, 1.2000, 1.1875-1.1925 and 1.1800. Below is July 14 low of 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and March 2020 lows in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels 1.2160-1.2200, 1.2275-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

The main event of the coming week is likely to be the release of UK inflation data (CPI) on Wednesday August 17. Also noteworthy on the calendar is Tuesday August 16, when UK labor market data comes in, and Friday August 19, when July retail sales in the country become known.

USD/JPY: Yen: Hope for Better but a Very Distant Future

The dynamics of USD/JPY last week was similar to the dynamics of EUR/USD reversed. (This is logical, since here the dollar moves from the position of the base currency to the position of the quote currency). Having started on Monday, August 8 from 135.00, the pair went down sharply on Wednesday, August 10 on the basis of US inflation data, reached the local bottom at 131.72 on August 11, then reversed and finished at 133.45.

Those who are ready to open long-term positions will probably be interested in the forecast of analysts from Westpac, one of the largest banks in Australia, one of the Big Four, and the second largest bank in New Zealand. They believe that the current level of USD/JPY can be justified. Japan is favored by economic growth in Asia and the continuing downward trend in energy prices. And given the possible easing of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, according to Westpac strategists, the pair may fall to 123.00 by the end of 2023.

The end of 2023 is quite far away, more than 16 months. As for the forecast for the near future, the opinions of experts are divided as follows. 45% of analysts expect the pair to rise, another 25% hope for the strengthening of the yen and the continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 30% speak of a side corridor. The readings of indicators on D1 give a bit different picture. Trend indicators have a ratio of 65% to 35% in favor of the red ones. Oscillators are 15% north, 40% south, and the remaining 45% east.

Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 133.00, 132.50-132.85, 131.75-132.00, 131.00, 130.40, 128.60 and 126.35-127.00. Resistances are 134.00, 134.40-134.60, 135.30-135.60, 136.35-137.00, 137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, and finally the July 14 high at 139.38.

As for the events of the upcoming week, it is worth paying attention to Monday, August 15, when the preliminary volume of Japan's GDP for Q2 2022 will be known. According to forecasts, it may grow from negative -0.1% to +0.6%. This is the main macroeconomic indicator of market activity, which assesses the rate of growth or decline of the country's economy. Its growth is usually a positive, bullish, factor for the national currency.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: August 26: a Terrible Day on the Calendar

The crypto community continues to wonder if the crypto market has bottomed out or if a new price collapse awaits us. Before moving on to the next batch of forecasts, let's start with some statistics.

So, the price of bitcoin fell to $17,597 on June 18, which is in line with the level of December 2020 and almost 75% below the all-time high of $68,918. If we measure from the beginning of 2022, the main cryptocurrency started at $47,572 on January 01, and its fall was 63% by June 18. After that, BTC/USD crept up slowly, demonstrating a series of rising lows and highs over 8 weeks. However, as the chart shows, bearish resistance sharply increased above $24,000 and the upward momentum began to fade rapidly. So, the weekly maximum was at a height of $24.264 on July 20, $24.435 on July 29, and, finally, $24.891 on August 11. That is, growth was only about 2.5% over the past 3 weeks.

At the time of this writing, Friday evening, August 12, the total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.155 trillion ($1.089 trillion a week ago), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the fear zone, at a level of 42 points (31 weeks ago). BTC/USD is trading at $24,100, about 50% lower than at the beginning of the year.

Despite this price reduction, the number of addresses with a balance of 1 BTC has grown by 9.4% since the beginning of 2022. The indicator reached a historical high of 891.009 at the end of July. The situation is even more pronounced with addresses with a balance of more than 1 ETH, the number of which has grown by 15.7% over seven months. This trend indicates the desire of investors to accumulate. For example, according to the analytical resource The Balance, 39% of US investors began to invest more in cryptocurrencies, wanting to keep their savings.

Is it worth buying the flagship cryptocurrency now? Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Strategist Mike McGlone believes bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount in a sustained bull market. “The first cryptocurrency hit an all-time low in July compared to its 100-week moving average,” the expert explained.

Mark Yusko, managing partner of Morgan Creek Digital, also says that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair, and should be around $30,000. And according to Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, the “fair value” of BTC should now be around $40,000. PlanB, the creator of the once-popular Stock-to-Flow model, has the bar even higher at $55,000.

All these influencers have their own models and their own justifications. However, one must keep in mind that “fair price” is a rather relative concept. And perhaps the fairest is the current market value. That is, how much sellers are ready to sell now, and buyers are ready to buy a particular asset for.

Some on-chain indicators signaled the passing of the capitulation period and an improvement in investor sentiment in July. This is stated in an analytical report by ForkLog. Against the background of consolidation and the subsequent smooth recovery of the price of bitcoin, the Puell Multiple indicator began to exit the deep oversold zone. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has moved into the hope/fear zone and is heading towards optimism. The MVRV Z-Score crossed the upper boundary of the deep oversold zone at 0.1 on July 28. This is another signal about the passage of the "bottom" of the market cycle.

According to Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, crypto winter is probably coming to an end, and spring is just around the corner. “I think we've seen the worst already,” said the multi-billionaire, better known as SBF. “Some bitcoin miners might have some more problems, but I think we are talking about a few hundred million dollars in total pain, not billions.”

However, SBF’s crypto spring forecast was not without a “but”: “If Nasdaq is left to fall another 25%, and if Fed interest rates do rise to 7%, and if we are in recession for two and a half years […] , bitcoin could fall to $15,000 or $10,000,” said the CEO of FTX.

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence also looks cautiously towards the US Central Bank. The analyst emphasizes the key role of the US Federal Reserve, which is pursuing aggressive rate hikes in 2022. This could potentially create barriers to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks. At the same time, Mike McGlone urges not to try to fight the Fed.

Risky assets will have to pass the next serious test at the end of August. An analyst with the nickname Guy noted that the release of economic data expected this month could have a significant impact on the crypto markets. According to him, 3 important factors can interrupt the current uptrend. The first is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). “PCE data for July will be released on August 26. Given that PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, a high value could lead to markets collapse in anticipation of an aggressive rate hike."

The second factor is the US gross domestic product for the second quarter: “Revised GDP data for the second quarter will also be published on August 26. Pay attention to them. If these figures are revised upwards, that is, in fact, the US will no longer be in a technical recession, this may push the Fed to raise interest rates even more.”

And finally, the third factor is the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where US financial authorities discuss global economic problems. The symposium will take place from August 25 to 27, which coincides with the release dates of the two above-mentioned statistics.

These factors could influence the decisions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will have a cascading effect on the crypto market. “If the statistics turn out to be unimportant, and Powell is not in the best mood, then the crypto market will have a bad time. Although there are chances that he will keep his thoughts to himself long enough for the cryptocurrency market to continue its recovery rally.”

A recent Cumberland Institutional Investor Survey found that the majority of respondents expect bitcoin to rise to $32,000 by the end of the year. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital investment company, named a slightly smaller figure. In his opinion, the coin is unlikely to rise above the $30,000 level in the near future. The billionaire himself “would be happy” if BTC stopped for a while in the range of $20,000 to $30,000.

The most optimistic forecast this time was given by a popular analyst under the nickname InvestAnswers. The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the largest investment company BlackRock entered into a partnership agreement last week. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion in assets at the moment. Based on this, InvestAnswers believes that the influx of funds in cryptocurrencies from BlackRock clients could push the BTC price to $773,000.

“If BlackRock places 0.5% of its assets in BTC, then, taking into account the leverage, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase by $1.05 trillion, which means the price will rise to $75,000. And this, I think, is very likely. If BlackRock clients stake 1% of their holdings, then the capitalization will increase by $2.1 trillion, and bitcoin will reach $173,000. And if BlackRock places 5% of its assets, the bitcoin rate will reach $773,000. Although I think this is too aggressive, it may be possible within 3-5 years,” the analyst wrote. (It should be noted here that InvestAnswers calculations are correct only for investments with a leverage of 1:21 or more).

And in conclusion of the review, a few words about the main altcoin, ethereum, which is recovering much faster than bitcoin. The BTC/USD pair has risen by about 40% over the past eight weeks, while ETH/ USD has grown by almost 120%. Most experts attribute this bull rally to the upcoming change in the consensus algorithm from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which is expected at the end of September. The head of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, believes that the altcoin can reach the $2,200 mark even before this event. But according to ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, the best is yet to come, after the network transitions to Proof-of-Stake. “Once the merger actually happens, I expect investor sentiment to improve,” he said. “In my opinion, […] the main impact on the ETH rate will be provided after the completion of the merger process.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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EUR/USD: Back to 1:1 Parity

EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for more than three weeks. All attempts to break through its upper or lower border ended in failure. This movement continued until August 10, when, after the publication of data on inflation in the US, the pair went up sharply, turning the level of 1.0270 from resistance into support. However, the bulls' joy was short-lived. Just two days later, the pair returned to the channel, broke through its lower border on Thursday, August 18, and ended the week at 1.0039.

So, as most experts expected, the dollar and the euro approached the parity of 1.0000 again. There are two main reasons explaining the next reversal of the pair to the south. The first is the drop in the market's risk appetites. Inflation and the energy crisis in Europe are on the rise. The consumer price index (CPI) rose there in annual terms from 8.6% to 8.9% in July. So far, there is no way out of the energy crisis caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese economy is not encouraging either: the volume of industrial production (y/y) fell from 3.9% to 3.8% over the month, which is much lower than the forecasted 4.6%. The volume of retail sales fell from 3.1% to 2.7% as well (against the forecast of 5.0%). Against this background, the People's Bank of China lowered the base lending rate on the yuan sharply, from 3.70% to 2.75%.

The second reason lies in the positive macroeconomic statistics from the US and investors' confidence in the strength of the country's economy. It is known that the main "whales" that now determine the Fed's monetary policy are the state of the labor market and inflation. Unemployment in the US has been holding at 3.6% since March, which is a very good indicator. And it became even lower in July, 3.5%. And such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, with a forecast of 250K, actually reached 528K. And this despite the fact that it was 372K a month earlier. As for inflation, the figures look quite good here as well. The consumer price index (CPI) with a forecast of 0.2% in July turned out to be at the level of 0.0% (1.3% a month earlier). It decreased from 9.1% to 8.5% (forecast 8.7%) on an annualized basis. Instead of the expected 0.5%, the base CPI grew by only 0.3% in July (0.7% a month earlier).

All these figures indicate clearly that inflation, the war against which the Fed launched, is declining. Of course, this is not a final victory, but the success of the American Central Bank is obvious. Therefore, it may soften its monetary policy somewhat and not raise interest rates as aggressively as it has done in the past two months. It was this logic that played against the dollar, pushing EUR/USD up to 1.0368 on August 10. However, everything returned to normal soon. Fed chief Jerome Powell assured everyone that the regulator remains hawkish. The markets made the same conclusion from the minutes of the July meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) published on Wednesday, August 17.

It is expected that the American Central Bank may raise the rate from the current 2.5% to 4.0% by the end of 2022 - the beginning of 2023, and possibly to 5.0%, after which it will hold it in order to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%. This means that the dollar will be strong enough for a long time to come. This forecast pushed up the USD DXY Index again. Following this, the yield of US government bonds and securities of other developed countries began to grow, and stock indices (S & P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq), cryptocurrencies and other risky assets rushed south. Having believed in the rate hike and the prospects for the dollar, investors even began to get rid of such a protective asset as gold: the quotes of XAU/USD were falling throughout the past week.

As for the near future of the EUR/USD pair, at the time of writing the review, on the evening of August 19, only 15% of experts speak in favor of its growth, a little more indicate the way for it to the south - 25%, the remaining 60% refrain from forecasts. The readings of the indicators on D1 give much more definite signals. 100% side with the bears both among trend indicators and among oscillators. However, a third gives signals of it being oversold among the latter.

Apart from the support at 1.0030, the immediate target for the EUR/USD pair is, of course, the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone 0.9900-0.9930. The immediate target for the bulls is a return to the zone 1.0070-1.0100, then resistance and zones 1.0120, 1.0150-1.0180, 1.0200 and 1.0250-1.0270 follow. More distant targets are located in the zones 1.0400-1.0450, 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750.

Upcoming events include the release of the German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs on Tuesday, August 23. The volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US will be known the next day. There will be a whole series of events on Thursday, August 25. Firstly, this is the publication of data on German GDP for Q2. Then, the publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. And finally, four important events in the US that could seriously affect the current trend of the dollar. Data on GDP for Q2 and on unemployment will be published on August 25, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which is called "the Fed's favorite inflation indicator," will become known on August 26. The release of all these statistics will coincide with the annual economics symposium in Jackson Hole on August 25-27. The US financial authorities discuss the most important economic issues there, and these indicators are sure to influence their decisions.

GBP/USD: Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound Continue to Come True

GBP/USD rushed down again after US Federal Reserve officials pointed to a further sharp increase in interest rates. It was further accelerated by speeches by a number of Fed officials, including the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard and his colleague from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daley. One can conclude from their hawkish attitude that the dollar interest rate will probably be increased by 75 basis points (bp) in September for the third time in a row. At the same time, the head of the Kansas City Fed, Esther George, said that the regulator would tighten monetary policy until it was completely sure that inflation was on the decline.

Statements by US officials caused GBP/USD to drop 344 points in five days from 1.2135 to 1.1791 from 1.2135 and end the week slightly higher at 1.1830. The pound was not helped even by the unexpected growth of retail sales in the UK in July by 0.3%. UK shoppers spent more than expected thanks to online sales promotions. The rest of the macro statistics came out ambiguous. The average wage rate, with a forecast of 4.5%, was 5.1%, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 28.8K to 10.5K over the month. However, despite some improvements in the labor market, inflation in the UK exceeded the expected 9.8% and reached 10.1% (against 9.4% a month earlier). According to the forecast of the Bank of England, the recession in the country will probably begin in Q4 and may last more than a year.

GBP/USD fell to its lowest level in the last 5 weeks and, according to 30% of analysts, may continue to fall. Corrections to the north are also expected by 30%, the remaining 40% of experts remain neutral. The indicator readings on D1 look exactly the same as those of the EUR/USD pair: all 100% are colored red, while 30% of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold. Immediate support is at 1.1800, followed by July 14 low at 1.1759, followed by 1.1650, 1.1535 and March 2020 lows in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1875-1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050-1.2075, 1.2160-1.2200, 1.2275-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

With regard to the economic statistics of the United Kingdom, there will be data on business activity in various sectors of the country's economy on Tuesday, August 23. The values of the Business Activity Index in the manufacturing sector, the service sector, as well as the Composite Index (PMI), which reflects the level of activity of purchasing managers in both sectors of the UK economy, will become known.

USD/JPY: Japan's GDP Grows, Yen Rate Falls

The growth of the DXY Index, which shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of six other major foreign currencies, as well as the growth of US Treasury yields, has evidently affected the dynamics of USD/JPY. The pair, starting from 133.45, rose to the height of 137.22 during the weekly trading session, and set the last chord at 136.81.

The data released on Monday, August 15, made the prospects for monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan even more uncertain. If this world's third largest economy fell by 0.1% in Q1, it showed a steady growth of 0.5% in Q2 (slightly less than the expected 0.6%). On an annualized basis, the Japanese economy, with a forecast of +2.5%, actually grew by 2.2% (there was a contraction of -0.5% in the previous quarter).

GDP is the main macroeconomic indicator of market activity that assesses the rate of growth or decline of a country's economy. Usually its growth is positive bullish, factor for the national currency. Usually, but not in these times, when the attractiveness of a particular currency is determined by the size of interest rates. And according to this parameter, the yen is far behind the US dollar.

According to economists from the international financial group Nordea, “The continuation of the Fed's policy of tightening monetary policy, along with most other G10 central banks, will keep pressure on the Japanese yen. […] Without any change in monetary policy from the BOJ, which we do not expect for the foreseeable future, the door will be open for the Japanese yen to hit 140 against the dollar again.” At the same time, according to the strategists of another bank, the Australian Westpac, the pair may drop to 123.00 in the longer term, by the end of 2023.

If we move on to the median forecast for the near term, it looks like this: 20% of analysts expect the pair to rise, 35% hope for the yen to strengthen and return to the downtrend, the remaining 45% talk about a side corridor. Trend indicators on D1 have 100% pointing north. As for oscillators, 90% are looking in the same direction, while 25% are in the overbought zone. The remaining 10% of the oscillators point east. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 135.55-136.00, 134.00-134.25, 132.85-133.00, 131.75-132.00, 131.00. Resistances are 137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, and finally the July 14 high at 139.38. Bulls' next targets­ are 140.00 and 142.00.

No significant statistics on the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bugatti Sports Car for 1 BTC: a Pipe Dream or Reality?



Among the many questions that concern the crypto community, two main ones can probably be distinguished: 1) Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? and 2) How much will bitcoin be worth? The first of them will be answered by White Paper Films, which announced the start of work on a documentary film dedicated to the personality and mysterious disappearance of the creator of the first cryptocurrency. (By the way, you can find a lot of interesting information on this subject on the NordFX broker website). As for the second question, as usual, we will look for answers to it in this weekly review.

First, there is good news for those who are waiting for the major cryptocurrency to surge upwards. A new study by Glassnode has shown that despite the fall in the crypto market, the use of the bitcoin network continues to grow: the number of unique addresses has now peaked at over 1 billion. (For comparison: the main competitor of BTC, ethereum with 158 million addresses is far behind on this indicator).

Good news No.2. According to Arcane Research, miners sold 6,500 BTC in July. This is 60% less than in June, when 14,600 coins were sold. The fall of the crypto market has created a lot of serious problems for public mining companies that have increased their production capacity with borrowed funds. Faced with the crisis, they are forced to dump the mined coins at low prices in order to pay off their debt obligations. Some, in the end, had enough margin of safety and managed to survive, while others turned out to be bankrupt.

The July data gives a timid hope that the industry is recovering, the pressure of miners is weakening. They hold onto their coins in the hope that they will rise. However, Arcane Research notes that 6,500 bitcoins is still more than in May, when miners shocked the market by selling more coins than they mined.

Good news No.3. A number of technical indicators signal the increasing likelihood of bitcoin reversing towards sustainable growth. Thus, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator recorded a minimum on June 18, 2022. This indicator had lower values only in December 2018 and March 2020. Another indicator, RHODL indicates a significant predominance of long-term investors on the market over short-term ones. This means that the holders do not plan to sell their coins and are guided by the growth of the market in the future.

This is the end of the good news this week. Recall that the price of bitcoin fell to $17,597 on June 18, in line with December 2020 levels and almost 75% below its all-time high of $68,918. If we measure from the beginning of 2022, the main cryptocurrency started at $47,572 on January 01, and its fall was 63% by June 18. However, as the chart shows, bearish resistance sharply increased above $24,000 and the upward momentum began to fade rapidly. So, the weekly high was at a height of $24,264 on July 20, $24,435 on July 29, $24,891 on August 11, and, finally, $25,195 on August 15. That is, the uptrend seems to have continued, but the increase in highs was less than 4% over the past 4 weeks. And the past week has generally brought investors a complete disappointment.

As of this writing, Friday evening, August 19, the total crypto market capitalization is $1.028 trillion ($1.155 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell 9 points in seven days from 42 to 33 and came close to the Extreme Fear zone. BTC/USD has gone down sharply again and is trading at $21.095. There are several reasons for this fall. First, the intention of the Fed to continue raising rates, which became clear from the minutes of its last meeting. Secondly, there is strong downward pressure from the fever in the stablecoin market. First, aUSD was compromised, and HUSD, the token of the Huobi crypto exchange, lost its peg to the dollar last week. If we add to this the bankruptcy of a number of cryptocurrency funds, the pessimism that reigns in the market becomes clear.

Well-known analyst and DataDash founder Nicholas Merten noted that bitcoin and ethereum are showing signs of weakness despite their rising prices in recent weeks. According to Merten, the fact that the recovery of the stock market is ahead of the recovery of crypto assets suggests that the latter may not have much strength left to continue the rally. If cryptocurrencies sell out faster than stocks during a downtrend, then they should have recovered faster. But there is no such recovery at the moment.

Another crypto strategist, nicknamed Capo, believes that “there is a chance to see another attempt by the main cryptocurrency to storm the $25,400-$25,500 range.” However, according to his colleagues at Norhstar & Badcharts, there is a possibility that bitcoin could start to drop sharply to $10,000-$12,000. They explained their assumption in an interview with Kitco News as follows: “According to the chart, the price of bitcoin is in an inverted arc, opposite to the Cup pattern… There are a number of technical analysis methods that increase to 70-80% the probability that the price of bitcoin will make new lows of $10,000 -$12,000 and there's about a 20% to 30% chance it will go up." In the event that the bitcoin rate goes up, according to Norhstar & Badcharts, it could reach $29,000-$30,000. According to them, this is the maximum level that the value of BTC can rise to before it starts to fall. “We are either already at local peaks or very close to them,” Norhstar & Badcharts says.

As usual, influencers who have invested heavily in bitcoin are trying to knock down the wave of pessimism. They continue to convince everyone and everywhere of the fantastic prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency. For example, Anthony Scaramucci, former director of communications at the White House and now head of the investment company SkyBridge Capital, recalled in an interview with CNBC the limited issue of bitcoin of 21 million coins, which will lead to “shock demand with little supply.” Scaramucci believes that the first cryptocurrency can show unprecedented growth within six years. “If we're right, if bitcoin goes to $300,000 it won't matter if you bought it at $20,000 or $60,000. The future is ours. And it will happen sooner than I thought,” he says.

The former director of the White House is echoed by the former head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor. Recall that this company acquired 129,698 BTC under his management. Despite the current unrealized huge losses on these trades, Michael Saylor is confident that the purchase of bitcoin as a reserve asset was justified, and the asset will prove to be reliable in the future. “We […] got into the lifeboat of the first cryptocurrency with the understanding that we would be tossed in the ocean, but we would not drown and would appreciate this step over time,” said Saylor. According to him, the volatility of cryptocurrencies will only affect short-term investors and public companies, so bitcoin is not for everyone. “The investment should be for a period of at least four years. Ideally, this is the transfer of wealth from generation to generation. The metric that confirms this is the four-year moving average,” he explains.

And at the end of the review, here is the statement of another bitcoin maximalist. “I still hope to buy a Bugatti for 1 BTC,” said Jesse Powell, CEO of the Kraken crypto exchange. Given that the cost of one Bugatti sports car can exceed $5 million, it takes very little to fulfill this dream: “just” to wait for bitcoin to rise in price by 250 times.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- Charles Edwards, the founder of the Capriole Investments crypto fund, came to the conclusion based on the data of the Difficulty Feed indicator that the surrender period of bitcoin miners has passed. This, he said, is "a great signal to buy." According to his observations, the last phase of surrender is the third longest in history (71 days). It is longer than in 2021, but two days shorter than in 2018. “Historically, the surrender of bitcoin miners recorded major price lows and served as excellent buy signals,” Edwards said.

- Meltem Demirs, Strategy Director at CoinShares, spoke of what awaits the two top coins at the end of Q3. According to her, now there is a summer lull in the crypto market, as a significant part of people do not trade actively during the holidays. But despite this, “we have seen a lot of buying on drawdowns with regard to BTC. There is capital willing to accumulate bitcoin.”
Demirors does not expect a significant increase in the price of bitcoin until the end of September: “Until the end of the 3rd quarter, BTC does not have catalysts that could contribute to growth. It is highly dependent now on macroeconomics, which was observed in the example of a significant correlation with the shares of companies in the technology sector.”
As for ethereum, the CoinShares strategist believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely it will be on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.” (Recall that the ethereum network upgrade is scheduled for the period from September 15 to 20.”

- For the first time since summer 2020, the average cost of a transaction in the BTC network has become less than $1, thus expanding the possibilities of using the asset as a means of payment. The need to pay significant fees when transferring small funds caused inconvenience and dissatisfaction among users. Previously, BTC transactions were slow and expensive, but improvements like the Lightning Network and Taproot give hope that this situation will never happen again. Currently, the average cost of BTC transactions has decreased to $0.825, which is the lowest level since June 13, 2020.

- Analyst Justin Bennett warned that BTC could face another sell-off. According to him, bitcoin has gone below the diagonal support level, which has kept the bullish sentiment over the past few months, and now the situation resembles a correction in May-June this year. “Bitcoin is currently looking almost identical to what we have seen a couple of times over the past few months, and it is moving below the bear flag.” According to Bennett, the BTC rate fell by more than 30% the last two times in such situations.
Although the analyst is bearish, he predicts a small short-term rise in BTC to $23,000, which should be retested as resistance. Then a decline to $19,000 is expected. Bennett believes that bitcoin’s reaction at $19,000 should determine its behavior for the rest of the year: “The question will be whether we see a rebound and higher lows, or if we get lower lows for the rest of the year.”
Crypto analyst and trader Neko believes the $21,700 level is key for bitcoin as it is the combined average breakeven of all bitcoin holders.

- Bitcoin on-chain activity has reached the same levels as at the end of the 2018-2019 bear market. This opinion was expressed by Glassnode analysts. However, despite the signs of the end of the “crypto winter”, network indicators still do not signal a reversal of the macroeconomic trend. The researchers note that the bitcoin network still does not record the presence of demand for cryptocurrency from investors, which is essential for a sustainable uptrend. “Recent price increases failed to attract a significant wave of new active users, which is especially noticeable among retail investors and speculators,” Glassnode notes. The lack of hype is also indicated by the falling fees in the bitcoin network. As noted, its average size has fallen below $1.
Despite this, the current consolidation phase of the bottom of the cycle is “most likely,” according to Glassnode. According to experts, it is at the current price levels that bitcoin can try to form a solid foundation for future growth. However, the coin is still trading in the middle of the corrective pattern that has been present since June 18, and the further direction of the trend remains unclear.

- The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure in recent months, however, according to Bakkt CEO Gavin Michael, bitcoin is entrenched in the financial system forever. The specialist is sure that the first cryptocurrency will show significant growth in the coming years. Cryptocurrency platform Bakkt provides digital assets and futures trading services for institutional investors, and their interest in the market is only growing, according to Michael.

- JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of "something worse than a recession" in the US economy, with a 20-30% chance of this happening, which is a lot. Quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed and macroeconomic factors increase the chances of a worsening recession, with which World Bank President David Malpass agrees. “The global economy is in danger again,” the financier says. “It is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could linger for several years.”
Members of the crypto community tend to interpret these statements as a growth factor for the crypto market. For example, Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, believes that the price of bitcoin could rise to $300,000 over the next 12-24 months. At the same time, the same Anthony Scaramucci said that bitcoin is still “not mature enough” to be considered a full-fledged hedging asset. The capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is now at around $410 billion, which, of course, is not enough to hedge the inflation of the world's major economies.

- Entrepreneur Kim Dotcom believes that a strong drop would be good for the cryptocurrency market, as it would lead to the exit of most speculators who are focused only on making money on short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. In his opinion, the crypto sphere will get a “second wind” when digital assets will be perceived by participants precisely as financial instruments with great potential. Dotcom also spoke about the future of the global economy. In his opinion, the US will not cope with the burden of its financial problems, and the US dollar will depreciate greatly.
For reference: Kim Dotcom is a German-Finnish entrepreneur, the former owner of the largest file hosting service Megaupload, the owner of the new file sharing service Mega from January to September 2013. Kim Dotcom was sentenced in Germany for using insider information. He was arrested on January 19, 2012 in New Zealand at the request of the FBI, but was released on bail on February 22.

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen expressed his opinion on what could be the most negative scenario for ethereum. “In my opinion,” the expert says, “this is the logarithmic regression band, which signals a possible area of ¬$400-$800. I think it is worth considering this opportunity as a great option for savings.”
At the same time, Cowen also noted the possibility of ETH moving in the other direction: “At the same time, ETH can demonstrate a rally if the transition to PoS goes without significant problems (you need to be aware that some software updates do not always go smoothly) and the Fed changes its monetary politics."

- Unknown hackers broke into the settings of General Bytes bitcoin ATMs on August 18, with the help of which they were able to transfer cryptocurrencies deposited through devices to their wallet. The incident was confirmed by company representatives. According to experts, the hackers "scanned open servers, including those hosted in the General Bytes cloud service." They added themselves as administrator from there. The hackers then proceeded to change the “buy” and “sell” settings so that any cryptocurrencies received by the bitcoin ATM would go to their wallet. General Bytes added that previous security checks had not revealed this vulnerability.
For reference: General Bytes owns and operates 8,827 Bitcoin ATMs in over 120 countries. The company headquarters is in Prague, Czech Republic. ATM customers can buy or sell over 40 different cryptocurrencies.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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EUR/USD: The Global Economy Is in Danger Again

So, EUR/USD broke through the key support level formed in 2016. It fixed a low at 0.9899 on Tuesday, August 23, the low the pair traded 20 years ago, in November-December 2002. The euro lost about 485 points to the dollar lover the past year alone.

Although not officially recognized, in fact the US economy has already plunged into recession, GDP continues to fall, although this movement has slowed down a bit: -0.9% in Q1 2022 and -0.6% in Q2. Quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed and macroeconomic factors increase the chances of strengthening this process. Thus, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the country's economy could expect "something worse than a recession", and the probability of this event occurring is 20-30%.

The situation in the Eurozone is even worse, and macroeconomic conditions still do not bode well. According to forecasts, due to the energy crisis caused by anti-Russian sanctions, Europe, and especially Germany, will face a very difficult winter.

“The world economy is in danger again,” said World Bank President David Malpass. “It is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could linger for several years.” This situation fuels the demand for safe-haven assets, and the US currency is traditionally one of them. The dollar index (DXY) is holding positions near multi-year highs around 108 points and, according to experts, may rise to 110 points.

The key event of the past week was the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on August 25-27, which brought together almost the entire US financial elite. The key event at the symposium was to be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, from whom market participants hoped to receive signals regarding the regulator's future plans. But he did not say anything new and significant, Powell's statements were a little more "hawkish" than before, but generally coincided with market expectations. Perhaps the head of the US Central Bank did not want to shock the markets in any of the directions. He did not name a specific figure by which the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can raise the interest rate on September 21. Moreover, this decision may still be influenced by the forthcoming September reports on the labor market and consumer price dynamics.

The likelihood of a 50 basis point (bp) or 75 bp rate hike in September is about the same. Recall that the rate is at the level of 2.5% at the moment and the next increase will send it to the maximum level since 2008. And there is no doubt that it will happen, even though the CPI showed signs of slowing in July, falling to 8.5%, and inflation, as measured by the Core Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), fell from 0.6% to 0.1% in a month.

At the same time, the ECB may also raise borrowing costs by 50 bp at its meeting on September 8. The minutes of the last, July, meeting of the regulator showed that a very large number of members of the Board of Governors agreed on the advisability of raising the key rate from 0.5% to 1.0%. Moreover, according to Reuters, some ECB leaders, due to the deterioration of the inflation forecast, want to discuss the issue of raising the rate immediately by 0.75%. However, the decrease in the difference between the rates of the Fed and the ECB, although it may slightly support the euro, will not change the situation fundamentally, since the difference between the rates will still remain in favor of the dollar. As a result, the US currency will continue to strengthen, and, according to Wells Fargo analysts, it may peak in Q4 2022. Economists from Nordea expect that EUR/USD may fall to 0.9700 by the end of the year, a number of experts call 0.9600 as well.

Jerome Powell's speech took place on the evening of Friday, August 26, in the middle of the US trading session, when the Asian and European currency markets had already closed. Therefore, the final reaction to the words of the head of the Fed will become clear only on Monday, August 29. As for the last week, although its performance caused some volatility, the pair placed the last chord within the weekly range, slightly below its center at 0.9966.

60% of experts support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, while the remaining 40% indicate the opposite direction to it. The readings of the indicators on D1 give much more definite signals. 100% side with the bears both among trend indicators and among oscillators. However, a quarter gives signals of it being oversold among the latter. The nearest bearish targets for EUR/USD are the July 14 low at 0.9950 and August 23 low at 0.9899. Note that the 0.9900-0.9930 area is also a strong 2002 support/resistance zone. For the bulls, the first priority is to rise above the 1.0000 parity level, after which it will be necessary to overcome the resistance of 1.0030, then 1.0090-1.0100, followed by the levels and zones of 1.0120, 1.0150-1.0180, 1.0200 and 1.0250-1.0270.

Statistics on the US consumer market will be released on Tuesday, August 30. We will have a whole series of data from the US labor market on the same day, as well as on Wednesday, August 31, Thursday, September 01 and Friday, September 02, including such important indicators as the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP). As for the European economy, data on unemployment in Germany and the consumer market of the Eurozone (CPI) will be received on Wednesday, August 31, and the value of the Business Activity Index in the manufacturing sector (PMI) and retail sales in Germany will become known on September 01.

GBP/USD: Very "Terrible Long-Term Outlook"



We titled the review for GBP/USD “Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound Continue to Come True” a week ago. But it turns out that the situation does not just look gloomy but inspires real horror for some experts. “The long-term chart of the pair,” economists at Citi Bank believe, “is looking really terrible right now. It can be viewed as a large double top forming as a continuation pattern, which promises a price drawdown to parity and possibly below it. […] There is no significant support now (beyond the March 2020 peak low just above 1.14) until the major lows set in 1985 at 1.0520. […] This month's close below 1.1760, if any, would be a bearish external month.”

GBP/USD closed last week at 1.1736. The pound continues to be pressured by the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, accompanied by a sex scandal, and rising inflation. British energy regulator Ofgem has announced that average annual household electricity bills will rise by 80% from October and that the new Prime minister will need to take urgent action to deal with such skyrocketing prices.

The median forecast for the coming week looks fairly neutral. 45% of analysts side with the bulls, and 55% support the bearish scenario. The indicator readings on D1 look exactly the same as those of the EUR/USD pair: all 100% are colored red, while 25% of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold. Immediate support is the August 23 low at 1.1716, followed by 1.1650, 1.1535 and the March 2020 lows in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1755, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2050-1.2075, 1.2160-1.2200, 1.2275-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

With regard to the economic statistics of the United Kingdom, traders should take into account that there is a bank holiday in the country on Monday, August 29. Among the important events, we can note Thursday, September 01, when the August value of the UK Manufacturing PMI will be known.

USD/JPY: BOJ Policy Will Remain the Same

The USD/JPY pair has been moving in the sideways corridor 135.80-137.70 throughout the week. And if we talk about the results of the five-day period, the bulls won with a slight advantage: having started the week at 136.81, the pair ended it at 137.45. So, the neutral forecast was fully justified. Recall that the majority of experts voted for the movement of the pair to the east last time.

The latest survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg showed that inflation, which reached 3%, is unlikely to force the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Haruhiko Kuroda to tighten monetary policy. While 3% is the highest level since 1991 (excluding years of tax hikes), it is still well below the 8.5% inflation rate in the US. Moreover, according to forecasts, inflation may reach 2.5% in the last three months of 2022, and be at the level of 1% at the end of next year.

As for a possible change in the monetary policy of the BOJ after the expiration of the term of Haruhiko Kuroda in April 2023, one cannot really count on this. And even more so, one should not expect an increase in interest rates at the next meeting of the Japanese regulator on September 22.

Based on the above, the majority of analysts (60%) believe that USD/JPY will again aim to test the July 14 high and take the height of 139.40. 30% of experts expect the yen to strengthen and a downtrend, and 10% give a neutral forecast. The indicators on D1 mirror the readings of the previous pairs: 100% of them point north, while 25% of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 137.00, 136.70, 136.15-136.30, 135.50, 134.70, 134.00-134.25, 132.85-133.00, 131.75-132.00, 131.00. Resistances are 137.70, 138.40, 138.50-139.00, and finally the July 14 high at 139.38. Bulls' next targets­ are 140.00 and 142.00.

No significant statistics on the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Dark Gray is the Colour

As of last week, BTC/USD was trading in a tight $20,900-$21,800 range most of the time ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. It is in this zone that the cumulative average break-even of all bitcoin holders is located. But risky assets: stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) and quotes of digital currencies flew down on the evening of August 26. At the time of writing, the main cryptocurrency has already begun to react to the hawkish mood of the head of the Fed and recorded a weekly low at $20,534. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and stands at $0.991 trillion ($1.028 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped 6 points in seven days from 33 to 27 and is in the Extreme Fear zone. It is possible that these figures will become even worse on Saturday and Sunday, August 27-28.

The overall picture at the end of summer looks like this. In July, whales (with assets of over 10,000 BTC) and shrimps (less than 1 BTC) have been the main investment force driving bitcoin up. It is known that institutional investors play a leading role in the whale population, highly dependent on what is happening on Wall Street. Institutional operations with digital assets are carried out through cryptocurrency funds. And, judging by the statistics, the inflow of investments into these funds stopped at the beginning of August, and the whales returned to selling their BTC coins in the second week of the month: the outflow amounted to about $21 million.

However, according to Bakkt crypto platform CEO Gavin Michael, despite what is happening, bitcoin will show significant growth in the coming years. Bakkt provides digital assets and futures trading services for institutional investors and, according to Michael, they are closely watching what is happening and their interest in the market is constantly growing.

One of the key signs of future price growth is the increase in network activity and the emergence of new addresses. Bitcoin activity is now at the same level as it was at the end of the 2018-2019 bearish market, according to analytics firm Glassnode. However, despite the signs of the end of the “crypto winter”, network indicators still do not signal a reversal of the macroeconomic trend. The researchers note that the bitcoin network still does not record the presence of demand for cryptocurrency from investors, which is essential for a sustainable uptrend. “Recent price increases failed to attract a significant wave of new active users, which is especially noticeable among retail investors and speculators,” Glassnode notes. The lack of hype is also indicated by the falling fees in the bitcoin network. As noted, its size has fallen below $1. Currently, the average cost of BTC transactions is around $0.825, which is the lowest level since June 13, 2020. Despite this, Glassnode believes that it is at current price levels that bitcoin can try to form a solid foundation for future growth.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors believes that “BTC does not see catalysts that could contribute to growth until the end of Q3.” But despite this, “we saw a lot of buying on drawdowns in relation to BTC” in summer, which, in her opinion, indicates the presence of capital willing to accumulate this asset.

If Meltem Demirors is cautiously optimistic, analyst Justin Bennett is quite pessimistic and believes that BTC may face another sell-off. Bitcoin has gone below the diagonal support that has kept the bullish vibe for the past few months. According to Bennett, the coin's rate fell by more than 30% the last two times in such situations.

Although the analyst is bearish, he predicts a small short-term rise in BTC to $23,000, which should be retested as resistance. Then a decline to $19,000 is expected. Bitcoin’s reaction at this level should, according to Bennett, determine its behavior until the end of the year: “The question will be whether we see a rebound and higher lows, or get lower lows for the rest of the year.”

As for ethereum, Meltem Demirors believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.”

Another well-known strategist, Benjamin Cowen, spoke out about the ethereum. In his opinion, if the most negative scenario is implemented, the logarithmic regression band indicates a possible fall in the ETH/USD pair to the ­$400-$800 area. Cowen calls such a drop an excellent opportunity to replenish Ethereum reserves. At the same time, he does not exclude the possibility of the altcoin moving up: “ETH can demonstrate a rally if the transition to PoS goes without significant problems (you need to be aware that some software updates do not always go smoothly) and the Fed changes its monetary policy.” (As a reminder, the ethereum network upgrade is scheduled for September 15-20. So, it won't take long to wait.).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- A covert mining campaign has allegedly infected thousands of computers in 11 countries around the world with malware. The company is associated with Turkish software developer Nitrokod, which has been active since 2019. The company offers supposedly free programs, the official desktop versions of which do not exist. This was reported by experts at Check Point Research (CPR).
The attackers installed covert mining utilities into free apps based on popular services like Google Translate or YouTube Music. The popularity of the underlying source ensured high positions in the search results. The software is distributed through well-known free software platforms like Softpedia or uptodown.
Attackers managed to go unnoticed for a long time due to the complex and multi-stage infection. The hidden module for installing the mining utility was activated only a few weeks after installing the program on the computer.
The malware injection process was divided into six time-separated stages, disguised as updates. At all stages, the installer removed traces in the logs, making it difficult to detect.

- With the exception of a few dozen tokens, most of the crypto assets on the market are “junk”, and the real options for using digital currencies are underdeveloped. This opinion was expressed by Umar Farooq, the head of the Onyx blockchain division of the financial conglomerate JPMorgan. He noted that regulation has lagged behind the growth of the industry. This deters many traditional financial institutions from participating in the market.
The CEO of Onyx also believes that the technologies of the crypto industry are not mature enough to be used, for example, to conduct high-value transactions between institutions or to place such products as tokenized bank deposits.

- The turnover of cryptocurrency investment products ($901 million) fell to the lowest level since October 2020 from August 20 to 26, and the outflow of funds continued for the third week in a row. Such estimates were given by CoinShares analysts. “While […] part of this dynamic is due to seasonal effects, we also see continued apathy after the recent price decline. It seems to us that caution is associated with the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed,” the experts explained.

- Bitcoin is “a purely speculative asset with no utility,” due to the lack of technological progress. This was stated by Justin Bons, the founder and chief investment officer of the Cyber Capital fund. He used to be a vigorous advocate for bitcoin, but changed his point of view, calling it “one of the worst cryptocurrencies”. “The world has moved forward. It used to be said that digital gold would simply embrace the best technology. This thesis, obviously, has not been fully confirmed. Bitcoin doesn’t have smart contracts, privacy technologies, or scaling breakthroughs,” Bons explained.
“The economic properties of bitcoin are incredibly weak as well. It competes with cryptocurrencies that can achieve negative inflation, high storage capacity and utility, such as post-merger ETH.” “People, for the most part, invest in the first cryptocurrency only because they believe in the price increase. They act on the same principle as participants in Ponzi schemes,” the founder of Cyber Capital believes.

- Analyst Justin Bennett decided to warn crypto investors of a possible sharp correction. According to him, the recent sell-off in the stock market will inevitably lead to a fall in the bitcoin rate: “The stock sale that has taken place confirms a major bull trap and is likely to cause prolonged decline. That is, the S&P500 will fall by about 16%, and BTC by 30%-40%, to the level of $12,000.”
“BTC is testing the 2015 trend line again,” the analyst writes. -"Do not believe those who consider it a healthy phenomenon. The two long bottom wicks of 2015 and 2020 indicating strong demand are worth looking out for. This time we are seeing exactly the opposite.” According to Bennett, the main target for the bears is the pre-COVID-19 high of $3,400.
Regarding ethereum, Bennett believes that the asset is forming the top of the “head and shoulders” pattern on the chart with a downward target near $1,000: “The right shoulder of this pattern is starting to form and ETH’s drop below $1,500 is the confirmation.”

- A similar scenario is given by Bloomberg analysts. They are also predicting ETH to fall below $1,000 despite its recent comeback from the August 29 lows. This is largely due to the volatility of the ethereum price in bearish market conditions. “Technical indicators of momentum and price trends show that the token’s decline from a peak near $2,000 in mid-August to the current zone near $1,500 is likely to continue,” Bloomberg said in their report.
Ethereum has been largely outperforming bitcoin lately as sentiment in the ETH community remains optimistic due to the upcoming merger. However, this has not provided the asset with any immunity to the recent unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
Ethereum has established promising support on its 50-day moving average. However, after the market fell on August 25-26, the asset has been below this support, which indicates the risks of a further collapse and a retest of support around $1,000.

- CryptoQuant experts note that the fall in the price of bitcoin below the $20,000 threshold woke up the “ancient” bitcoin wallets that were active 7-10 years ago. Historically, a surge in the activity of such wallets happens when the first cryptocurrency makes unprotected movements or reaches long-awaited targets or support levels. Amid the panic in the cryptocurrency market, long-term holders can join the sellers and start dumping their holdings to avoid further losses. This trend is usually one of the first signs of capitulation among investors.
It is reported that 5,000 bitcoins are currently in motion from 10-year-old addresses. Despite the significance of the transaction, this is a relatively small volume. Similar wallets have Previously activated up to 100,000 BTC in a short period, creating huge pressure on the market. But even with a larger amount, there is no reason to panic, since the transfer can only be a redistribution of funds. During periods of high volatility, whales tend to spread their assets across different wallets in order to manage them more efficiently.

- According to Steve Huffman, CEO of Reddit, there are a lot of incomprehensible and useless terms in the cryptocurrency market. Because of this, it becomes increasingly difficult to understand for both experienced and novice traders and investors.
As Steve Huffman pointed out, almost no one in his company uses specific cryptocurrency terminology. It is incomprehensible to customers, completely confusing them. In his opinion, all this hype with complex terms that developers use only hides their illiteracy and misunderstanding of the cryptocurrencies basics.
The reason is probably that the crypto market is becoming more and more like a classic stock market. As a result, bureaucratization, expressed in incomprehensible terms, begins to dominate more and more. Many regulators from different countries introduce their own rules, developers try to show that they are smarter than competitors, startups write white papers so that investors can see that they understand all the intricacies. And it is almost impossible to read the laws dedicated to cryptocurrencies, they are so overloaded with mysterious terminology.

- Jordan Belfort, former stockbroker, commonly known as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, has admitted that his initial bitcoin zero prediction was wrong. “At the time, I really hated cryptocurrencies and I confirm everything I said about them in 2017, except for one thing: I was wrong about bitcoin zeroing out. Here I lacked attention, because it seemed to me that all digital assets are a scam,” Belfort said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
The crypto winter of 2018 changed his mind. Moreover, the former stockbroker said that he came to understand that bitcoin harbors the qualities of digital gold. In his opinion, if cryptocurrencies are regulated, it is likely that BTC will start trading as a store of value, and not as growth stocks.

- John Wu, the head of the Avalanche (AVAX) platform, believes that despite the fall in the cryptocurrency market due to the correlation with stock assets, crypto investors expect “cosmic profits”. “The market needs to understand that in the crypto-asset space, investors will receive more than the average return on the market, the so-called alpha. There are very good reasons for this. The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen, but stablecoins have not. This suggests that many investors hold them and are ready to deploy stablecoins in the market.”

- Investor and broadcaster Kevin O'Leary questions bitcoin's ability to rise above the $25,000 price level under the current conditions. O'Leary has drawn attention to the fact that the price of bitcoin is stagnating, as there is no regulation that allows institutional investors to invest in this sector. And without a regulatory framework, cryptocurrency cannot be considered a full-fledged asset class.
“You need to use the trillions of dollars that sovereign wealth manages, but they are not going to buy bitcoin because there is no regulation,” says O'Leary. “People forget that 70% of the world's wealth is in pension and sovereign wealth funds. Accordingly, if they are not allowed to buy this asset class, they do not bet on it. But I believe that we will get the regulation within the next two or three years. And then, finally, we will be able to achieve institutional participation.”


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in August 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

A client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1634XXX, rose to the top, “gold” step of the podium in August, earning 32,118 USD on transactions with gold (XAU/USD).
The second place was taken by their compatriot, account No. 1623XXX, who made transactions on a variety of pairs, including EUR/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, and earned 24,858 USD.

A trader from East Asia closes the TOP-3 with a result of 16,257 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to operations with the XAU/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

In CopyTrading, the “veteran” signals KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 and KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K continue to move profits up, slowly, but confidently. The first of them brought the profit to 401% in 545 days (374% a month ago), the second one reached 192% profit in 485 days (178% a month ago). Recall that the maximum drawdown for these signals was 67% and 45%, respectively, and occurred quite a long time ago, in mid-October 2021. After that, such unpleasant "surprises" were not observed. But the third signal from the same family, KennyFxPro - The Cannon Ball increased its drawdown from 7% to 30%, its profit for the month rose from 33% to 38%.

As for the BSTAR signal (profit 48%/max drawdown 14%/195 days of life), which we also mentioned in the previous review, there were no trades on it in August. Perhaps its author took a break during the summer holidays.

As for startups, as usual, there are quite a lot of them. Of these, we note the signals JANUNGFX (98%/29%/37), Andy EU250 (54%/25%/38), NORD GOLDEN_DUCK (50%/30%/48) and PT_Bot Scalping (48%/30%/61). Once again, we would like to remind you that rather aggressive trading and a short lifespan of signals are additional risk factors and require special caution when subscribing.

In the PAMM service, the TOP-3, or rather TOP-4, has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. The capital on on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 134% in 584 days. Also among the leaders were: TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a profit of 97% in 515 days, NKFX-Ninja 136 account, which since June 11, 2021. brought a return of 88%, and COEX.Investment - Treis with a profit of 45% in 304 days.
All these accounts have a very moderate maximum drawdown, about 20%. Another account attracted attention, KennyFxPro - The Multi 3000 v2, which showed a yield of 16% in 66 days of life with a drawdown of less than 5%.

TOP 3 IB partners of NordFX received the following rewards in August:
- the largest commission, 11,265 USD, was accrued to a partner from East Asia, account No. 1259XXX;
- the second, as in July, is a partner from South Asia, account No. 1507ХХХ, who received 7,248 USD;
- and finally, a partner from South America, account No. 1274XXX, closes the TOP-3, who received 6,313 USD as a reward.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: Rather Boring Week

The past week was, boring, so to say. The macro statistics released from August 30 to September 2, although versatile, turned out to be quite close to market expectations. For example, the harmonized consumer price index in Germany, was 8.8%, with the forecast of 8.8%. The consumer price index in the Eurozone amounted to 9.1% instead of the expected 9.0%. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (PMI) did not change at all over the month and amounted to 52.8 (forecast 52.0), and the number of new jobs created outside the American agricultural sector (NFP) did not go far from the expected either, 315K against 300K. As a result, EUR/USD was moving along the parity line of 1.0000 all five days, fluctuating in the range of 0.9910-1.0078, and completed the five-day period at the level of 0.9955.

Market participants are likely to be much more active next week. The key day will certainly be Thursday September 08, when the ECB will decide on the deposit rate and make a statement and comments on its monetary policy. Inflation in the Eurozone rose even more in August: from 8.9% to 9.1%. Therefore, many experts, such as the strategists of the international financial group Nordea, believe that the European regulator will raise the rate by 75 basis points at once.

“Considering that the rate increase by 75 b.p. is not fully priced in financial markets and that the tone of the press conference is likely to be hawkish,” Nordea economists write, “we expect the first reaction from markets to be higher yields, wider bond spreads and a stronger euro.”

If we talk about the average forecast, it looks as follows at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, September 02. 50% of experts vote for the fact that EUR/USDwill move south in the near future, 35% vote for its growth, the remaining 15% are waiting for the side trend to continue. The readings of the indicators on D1 give much more definite signals. Both among trend indicators and among oscillators, all 100% side with the bears. However, 10% among the latter give signals that the pair is oversold.

The nearest bearish target for EUR/USD is the 0.9900-0.9910 zone. Note that the 0.9900-0.9930 area is also a strong 2002 support/resistance zone. Apart from the parity level of 1.0000, if the euro strengthens, the first priority for the bulls will be to rise above the resistance of 1.0030. After that, it will be necessary to overcome the level of 1.0080 and consolidate in the zone of 1.0100-1.0280, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

Among the upcoming week's events, apart from the ECB meeting, we can single out the publication of data on retail sales in the Eurozone on Monday, September 05. Monday is a holiday in the United States, the country celebrates Labor Day. We are waiting for data on business activity (ISM) in the US services sector on Tuesday, September 06, and GDP indicators in Germany and the Eurozone will be published on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak and data on unemployment in the United States will be published on the same day.

GBP/USD: On the Way to a 37-Year Low

We titled our review of the GBP/USD pair "Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound Continue to Come True" two weeks ago. The past headline sounded like "Very Terrible Long-Term Outlook" We can not say anything cheerful this week either: the pound is still one of the weakest G10 currencies, which is affected by the worsening prospects for the UK economy.

The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) estimates that the UK is already in the midst of a recession and inflation will hit 14% this year. And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023. According to the Financial Times, the number of British households living in fuel poverty will more than double in January to reach 12 million people. And the new prime minister will have to take urgent action to avoid an economic disaster. Just what action? It seems that no one knows yet.

In such a situation, the anxiety of market participants about the candidacy of the next prime minister, whose name will be announced on Monday, September 05, is quite understandable. Recall that the current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resigned after a sex scandal involving one of his cabinet members.

Against this gloomy background, the pound has been falling since August 01. Having broken through support at 1.1500, it set two-year lows (1.1495) last week. As for the final chord of the five-day period, it sounded a little higher, at around 1.1510. Most experts (55%) believe that GBP/USD will continue to fall in the coming weeks. And it will not stop even if the Bank of England raises interest rates by 75 bp on September 15. 30% hope for a correction and 15% have taken a neutral position.

According to currency strategists at UOB Group, the next significant support level after 1.1500 is in the March 2020 lows. “However,” the specialists note, “short-term conditions are deeply oversold, and it is not yet clear if this major support will be within reach this time.” As for a possible correction to the north, the UOB believes that only a break above 1.1635 will indicate that the British currency is not ready to fall further.

Note that the March 2020 lows (1.1409-1.1415) are at the same time the lows for the last 37 (!) years. The GBP/USD pair fell lower to 1.0800, only in 1985. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1585-1.1625, 1.1700, 1.1750, 1.1800-1.1825, 1.1900 and 1.2000. The readings of the indicators on D1 are similar to the readings for the EUR/USD pair: all 100% are colored red. However, here a third of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold, which often indicates a possible correction.

The United Kingdom's economic calendar can mark Monday 05 and Tuesday 06 September when the UK Services and Manufacturing PMIs and the Composite Index (PMI) will be released. A hearing on the inflation report will take place on Wednesday, September 07, but it will be more informative, and no important decisions will be made that day.

USD/JPY: Higher, Higher and Higher

Most analysts (60%) had been expecting a new test of the July 14 high and taking the 139.40 high last week. This is exactly what happened. USD/JPY rose to the height of 140.79, thus reaching a 24-year high. The weekly trading session finished at 140.20.

The reason for another record is still the same: the divergence between the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and other major central banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the American hawks, the Japanese regulator still intends to pursue an ultra-soft policy, which is aimed at stimulating the national economy through quantitative easing (QE) and a negative interest rate (-0.1%). This divergence is a key factor for the further weakening of the yen and the growth of USD/JPY.

Bank of America Global Research economists expect USD/JPY to remain at high levels until a major correction in Q4 2022. Moreover, such a correction is possible only if inflation in the US shows a steady slowdown. “We expect USD/JPY to end 2022 at 127,” these analysts say. "However, the structural weakness of the Japanese yen should resurface in the longer term."

At the moment, the majority of analysts (50%) believe that USD/JPY will continue its movement to the north. Fortunately, it still has room to grow: it was worth more than 350 yen for 1 dollar back in 1971. 30% of experts expect the bulls to take a break in the area of the highs reached, and another 20% are counting on a corrective moving to the south.

For indicators on D1, the readings mirror the readings for the previous pair: 100% of them point north, while a third of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. The primary task of the bulls is to update the high of September 02 and rise above 140.80. The next goal is 142.00. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.70, 136.70-137.00, 136.15-136.30, 135.50, 134.70, 134.00-134.25.

As for the economic events of the coming week, we can highlight the release of data on Japan's GDP on Thursday, September 08.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: All Hope for Ethereum



The BTC/USD pair was moving in a narrow range along the $21.330 horizon for a week before Jerome Powell's speech on August 26. The speech of the head of the Fed collapsed risky assets, the stock and crypto markets flew down. However, if the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices continued to fall throughout the past week, bitcoin was able to stay in the $20,000 ($19,518-20,550) region, and ethereum even grew in anticipation of the transition to the PoS mechanism.

As a result, instead of the usual correlation of BTC/USDwith technology stocks, we could observe its correlation with the main major forex pair, EUR/USD these days, which moved sideways along the parity line of 1.0000. A slight recovery on Friday, September 2 was caused by the publication of data on unemployment in the US. But the pair did not go beyond the weekly trading range and bitcoin is trading at $19,930 at the time of writing the review. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and stands at $0.976 trillion ($0.991 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen by another 2 points in seven days, from 27 to 25, and is in the Extreme Fear zone.

Over the past 10 years, it was only in 2018 that investors suffered more serious losses. And the pressure on the crypto market continues to persist, primarily due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Central Bank. According to CoinShares, the turnover of cryptocurrency investment products fell in the last decade of August to the lowest level since October 2020, and the outflow of funds continued for the third week in a row. “Although […] part of this dynamic is due to seasonal effects,” the specialists explain, “we also see continued apathy after the recent price decline. We think the caution is due to the Fed's hawkish rhetoric." In addition to speculators and casual "tourists", medium-term BTC holders (with a coin history of more than 5 months) began to leave the market.

The ranks of crypto enthusiasts are rapidly thinning out. Bitcoin is “a purely speculative asset with no utility,” due to the lack of technological progress. This was stated by Justin Bons, the founder and chief investment officer of the Cyber Capital fund. He used to be a vigorous advocate for bitcoin, but changed his point of view, calling it “one of the worst cryptocurrencies”. “The world has moved forward. It used to be said that digital gold would simply embrace the best technology. This thesis, obviously, has not been fully confirmed. Bitcoin doesn’t have smart contracts, privacy technologies, or scaling breakthroughs,” Bons explained.

“The economic properties of bitcoin are incredibly weak as well. It competes with cryptocurrencies that can achieve negative inflation, high storage capacity and utility, such as post-merger ETH.” “People, for the most part, invest in the first cryptocurrency only because they believe in the price increase. They act on the same principle as participants in Ponzi schemes,” the founder of Cyber Capital believes.

Umar Farooq, the head of Onyx's blockchain division, which is part of the JPMorgan conglomerate, also voiced a lot of criticism against the crypto market. In his opinion, most of the crypto assets on the market are “junk”, and the lack of full regulation of the industry deters many traditional financial institutions from participating in the market. In addition, the technologies and practical applications of digital currencies are not well developed. Because of this, for example, they cannot be used as products such as tokenized bank deposits.

Investor and broadcaster Kevin O'Leary also believes that the price of bitcoin is stagnating due to lack of regulation. As a result, institutionalists cannot invest in this sector. “You need to use the trillions of dollars that sovereign wealth manages, but they are not going to buy bitcoin because there is no regulation,” says O'Leary. “People forget that 70% of the world's wealth is in pension and sovereign wealth funds. Accordingly, if they are not allowed to buy this asset class, they do not bet on it.”

However, the investor believes that regulation will still appear within the next two to three years. In the meantime, without a regulatory framework, cryptocurrency cannot be considered a full-fledged asset class, and bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $25,000.

Analyst Justin Bennett's forecast looks much bleaker. According to him, the recent sell-off in the stock market will inevitably lead to a fall in the bitcoin rate: “The stock sale that has taken place confirms a major bull trap and is likely to cause prolonged decline. That is, the S&P500 will fall by about 16%, and BTC by 30%-40%, to the level of $12,000.”

“BTC is testing the 2015 trend line again,” the analyst writes. -"Do not believe those who consider it a healthy phenomenon. The two long bottom wicks of 2015 and 2020 indicating strong demand are worth looking out for. This time we are seeing exactly the opposite.” According to Bennett, the main target for the bears is the pre-COVID-19 high of $3,400.

Regarding ethereum, Bennett believes that the asset is forming the top of the “head and shoulders” pattern on the chart with a downward target near $1,000: “The right shoulder of this pattern is starting to form and ETH’s drop below $1,500 is the confirmation.”

A similar scenario is given by Bloomberg analysts. They are also predicting ETH to fall below $1,000 despite its recent comeback from the August 29 lows. This is largely due to the volatility of the ethereum price in bearish market conditions. “Technical indicators of momentum and price trends show that the token’s decline from a peak near $2,000 in mid-August to the current zone near $1,500 is likely to continue,” Bloomberg said in their report.

Sentiment in the ETH community has remained optimistic lately due to the upcoming merger. However, this has not provided the asset with any immunity to the latest unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, Bloomberg analysts write. Ethereum has established promising support on its 50-day moving average. However, after the market fell on August 25-26, the asset has been below this support, which indicates the risks of a further collapse and a retest of support around $1,000.

And some optimism at the end of the review. According to a number of experts, if the transition to the Ethereum 2.0 network and the implementation of the Proof-of-Stake mechanism go as planned, this altcoin can rise sharply in price and pull the entire market up with it, primarily its main competitor, bitcoin. Recall that the update of the ethereum network is scheduled for the period from September 15 to 20. So we will find out soon which of the predictions will be correct.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- The bitcoin rate approached the June 19 low ($17,600), falling to $18,500 on September 7. Glassnode allowed BTC to fall further to support around $17,000. The specialists do not rule out such a wave of capitulation due to an increase in the proportion of "unprofitable" coins at the disposal of speculators (who traded in the previous 155 days). It rose to 96% (3.11 million BTC out of 3.24 million BTC). The situation was aggravated by the suspension of the bearish rally from June 19 to August 15. The rise in the price to $25,000 and its subsequent fall in just a few days transferred half of the speculators' coin reserves to the category of “unprofitable”.
In the short term, it is the stress testing of speculators that will determine the disposition in the market, since most of the on-chain activity was carried out by them. Three such episodes in the current downtrend had led earlier to sales with a short planning horizon and the subsequent formation of a local bottom. The long-term prospects of the first cryptocurrency, according to Glassnode analysts, remain constructive. This is confirmed by the increase in the number of coins at the disposal of hodlers.

- Analyst Kevin Swanson agrees with Glassnode's alarming prediction. He issued a warning about a possible downward movement of bitcoin as well. The US dollar soared to its highest level in 20 years, while bitcoin fell below the diagonal support that kept the asset afloat from its June lows of $17,600, Swanson said. Swanson admits further bearish scenario for bitcoin as the DXY dollar index is still in a strong uptrend.
Another expert, Naeem Aslam, believes that the fall will not be to the level of $18,000 or $15,000, but much lower, to about $12,000.

- Cryptoanalyst Nicholas Merten does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon collapse to a strong support level in the range of $12,000-14,000. He made this forecast based on the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), which shows the state of the positions of BTC holders. (When NUPL is above 0, most investors are in the black, if below 0, then more investors are in losses).
At the same time, Merten believes that the BTC movement can be unpredictable, since the asset has never been traded during a period of tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. He also doubts the imminent return to quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve, as it was in the past. “I would like to note,” the expert writes, “that there has never been a 50% recession, almost depressive correction or a bearish stock market in all 10 years during which BTC has been liquidly traded on exchanges, . There were typical bear markets around 20%, and then the Fed came to the rescue and saved the day. But the Fed cannot do the same now. If you print money and try to save the day, you can seriously exacerbate the problem of inflation.”

- A popular Twitter expert known as FatManTerra came up with a fake investment scheme as part of an experiment and raised more than $100,000 in bitcoins. On September 5, he tweeted about allegedly gaining access to a “highly profitable bitcoin farm” from an unnamed fund, and invited subscribers to join the farming. FatManTerra did not deliberately disclose additional details of the investment scheme, however, even without this information, he managed to collect this substantial amount in just a couple of hours.
“I want to send a clear message to everyone in the crypto world,” he wrote after the experiment, “anyone who offers you easy money is lying. Influencers who sell fast trading training or offer great investment opportunities are cheating on you.”
FatManTerra announced that he had returned all the money to users, and added that he had been inspired for the experiment by the Lady of Crypto account, which was accused of promoting dubious investment schemes among 257,500 subscribers.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was sure that the previous cryptocurrency bull market would end sooner or later. “I'm actually surprised that the collapse didn't happen sooner. Crypto bubbles usually last about 6-9 months after breaking the previous peak. This is followed by a rapid fall quite quickly. This time, the bull market lasted almost a year and a half,” Buterin said.
According to him, this is a reflection of the “cyclical dynamics” inherent in cryptocurrencies. “When prices go up, a lot of people say that this is the new paradigm and the future, and when they go down, people start saying it’s doomed, and they are fundamentally wrong.” According to Buterin, periodic price downturns help to “identify clearly” the problems in the industry and as well as unstable business models. The latter thrive during the boom in the market due to the influx of new money, but their model stops working during the downturn. He cited the recent collapse of the Terra project and the BitConnect investment scam that collapsed in 2017 as examples.
Buterin acknowledged that bearish phases have a negative impact on the design and development of protocols, as it is difficult to support sprawling teams financially. “But I don’t claim to [have invented] a cure for these dynamics,” he concluded.

- Hackers stole 119.2 ETH (about $185,000) from the crypto wallet of famous actor Bill Murray. The funds had been received for the sale at a charity auction of the NFT “Beer with Bill Murray”, which gives the right to drink beer with the actor. The proceeds were to be donated to a non-profit organization helping veterans and rescuers.
Murray's team was partially successful in thwarting the break-in and protecting about 800 NFTs in the actor's collection and is now working with police and analytics firm Chainalysis to track down the intruders.

- According to the TradingView service, the ratio of ethereum to bitcoin has grown to its highest values for 2022. It was fixed at 0.0843 in the afternoon of September 06. The last time such a level was noted was in December 2021. 1 BTC is worth about 12.4 ETH at current values.
The ETH community has linked the growth of this indicator to the upcoming network merger. Many users have been talking for almost a year now that a revolution will happen in this tandem sooner or later. Then ethereum will overtake bitcoin in terms of capitalization and value. The Merge procedure is scheduled for the period between September 13 and 15, 2022, however, the preparatory part of the event will take place on September 07.
This merge is likely to be the most important event of 2022 in the cryptocurrency industry. This is because it will bring several key changes to how the network works. The main ones are a 99.99% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease in the emission of the ETH coin.

- Experts of the u.today portal noted that September 13, 2022 will be a key date for the cryptocurrency market, not only due to the merge of Ethereum (ETH) networks. There is one more factor. Fresh data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on the same day. According to analysts, this information will help investors understand what is happening with the inflation rate in the country and will directly affect the financial markets, including cryptocurrency.
U.today suggested that if the Merge update does not cause problems with volatility, liquidity and security, and the CPI shows a decrease in inflation, a bullish momentum can be predicted, otherwise the crypto market will continue to fall.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

The NordFX brokerage company started a new super lottery, which will give away 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 two super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize fund will be 100,000 USD. Draws will take place on October 06, 2022, and January 04, 2023.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner.

Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions.

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Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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EUR/USD: Two Events of the Week

The past week was marked by two significant events. First, the EUR/USD pair updated its 20-year low on Tuesday, September 06 once again, falling to 0.9863. And then the European Central Bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in its history by 75 basis points (bp) to 1.25% on Thursday, September 08, accompanying this act with very hawkish comments.

We must say that both events did not come as a surprise to the market and, on the whole, were in line with the forecasts that we voiced in the previous review. The pair's rebound to the upside following the ECB's decision was not surprising either. Having risen by about 250 points, it peaked at 1.0113 on September 9. This was followed by a correction to the north, and the pair finished at 1.0045

Despite such a hawkish move, the ECB is still far from the US Fed: the current rate on the dollar is 2.50%, which is exactly twice as high as on the euro. But this is not all. If the September meeting of the European regulator has already passed, its American counterpart still has it ahead. And if the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raises the rate on September 21 once again, the dollar will go even further into the lead. And the probability of such a step is close to 100%.

It is still difficult to predict what both Central Banks will do next month, October. But there is a feeling that the ECB may, at least for a while, lower its hawkish attitude to understand how the rate hike has affected inflation and the state of the economy. The factor of the energy crisis in Europe, caused by anti-Russian sanctions, is still playing against the euro. However, the leadership of the European Union is taking active steps to reduce energy dependence on Russia on the eve of winter. And judging by the fact that the Eurozone GDP growth published on September 7 turned out to be higher than both the previous value and the forecast (4.1% versus 3.9%), stagflation may be avoided.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 09, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 55% of analysts stand for the fact that EUR/USD will continue to move south in the near future, 30% vote for its growth and the strengthening of the euro, the remaining 15% predict a side trend along Pivot Point 1.0000. The readings of indicators on D1 do not give any certainty. Among trend indicators, the ratio of forces is 50% to 50%. Among the oscillators, there is a slight advantage on the green side, 50%, 35% are on the red side, and 15% are colored in neutral gray.

The main trading range of the last three weeks was within 0.9900-1.0050. Taking into account breakdowns in both directions, it is somewhat wider, 0.9863-1.0113. The next strong support after the 0.9860 zone is located around 0.9685. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 1.0130, then 1.0254, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

There will be quite a lot of important events in the coming week. Consumer Price Indices (CPI) in Germany and the US will be published on Tuesday, September 13. CPI is an indicator of consumer inflation and reflects changes in the level of prices for groups of goods and services in August. The September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany will be released the same day. Another batch of economic statistics will arrive on Wednesday, September 14 and Thursday, September 15 in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and data on retail sales and unemployment in the US. We are waiting for the publication of the Eurozone CPI, as well as the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, at the end of the working week, on Friday, September 16.

GBP/USD: British Pound's Anti Record



We titled our previous review of GBP/USD "On the Way to a 37-Year Low". Recall that the lows of March 2020 (1.1409-1.1415) were at the same time the lows for the last 37 years. And now, this offensive forecast for the British currency came true: the pair reached a local bottom at around 1.1404 on September 07, breaking the 2020 anti-record. Then the euro, strengthening against the dollar, pulled up other currencies, including the pound. As a result, GBP/USD rose to 1.1647, and the five-day period closed at 1.1585.

An important event on August 7 was the hearing of the UK Inflation Report and the speeches by members of the Monetary Policy Committee, headed by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. As predicted, officials reaffirmed their commitment to tightening monetary policy (QT). Their statements strengthened the market's expectations that the regulator could raise the rate from 1.75% to 2.50% at its September meeting. This meeting was originally scheduled for next Thursday. However, due to mourning for Queen Elizabeth II, it was postponed for a week and will take place on September 22, after the US Federal Reserve makes its decision on the rate.

If the forecast for a growth in the interest rate on the pound comes true, this will create an even greater burden on the UK economy, which already causes serious concerns. The UK is already amid a recession and inflation will hit 14% this year, according to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC). And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023, which will provoke a protracted economic downturn and a contraction of the economy by more than 3.5%. British energy regulator Ofgem has already announced that average annual electricity bills for UK households will rise by 80% from October. And according to the Financial Times, the number of fuel-poor households will more than double in January to 12 million.

Of course, investors are very worried about whether the new prime minister, Liz Truss, will be able to cope with the deplorable situation in which the country's economy has found itself. Having failed to fully recover from Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom has faced unprecedented inflation, a decline in the population's ability to pay and a catastrophic collapse of the national currency.

The median forecast for the coming week looks fairly neutral. A third of analysts side with the bulls, another third side with the bears, and another third have taken a neutral position. The indicator readings on D1 are mostly colored red. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 70% to 30% in favor of the red ones. For oscillators, 65% point south and 35% point east. No oscillators are pointing north.

As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1720, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2050-1.2075, 1.2160-1.2200. The nearest support, apart from the 1.1475-1.1510 zone, is the September 07 low 1.1404. One can only guess to what levels the pair can fall further. Given the increased volatility, it is probably not worth focusing on either round values, or Fibonacci levels, or any figures of graphical analysis.

With regard to the economic statistics of the United Kingdom, data on GDP and output should arrive on Monday, September 12, that on the level of wages and unemployment in the country will be published on Tuesday, September 13. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Wednesday, September 14, and retail sales in the UK will be known on Friday, September 16. The source of all this data is the Office for National Statistics, so the schedule for their publication is subject to change due to mourning for Elizabeth II.

USD/JPY: Astronaut Pair

USD/JPY rose to a high of 140.79 on September 2, thus reaching a 24-year high. Most analysts were waiting for another rise and taking new heights from the past week. This is exactly what happened: the pair soared to the level of 144.985 on Wednesday, September 07. The last chord of the week sounded a bit lower, at 142.65.

Describing the cause of what happened is quite simple using Copy Paste on the keyboard, it is enough to take any of our reviews over the past couple of years. That's what we're doing right now. So, the reason is the same: the divergence between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and other major Central Banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the American hawks, the Japanese regulator still intends to pursue an ultra-soft policy, which is aimed at stimulating the national economy through quantitative easing (QE) and a negative interest rate (-0.1%). This divergence is a key factor for the further weakening of the yen and the growth of USD/JPY. And the situation will not change until BOJ raises the rate.

And why should the Japanese Central Bank raise it? The published data on the country's GDP (Q2) look quite good: the indicator rose from 0.5% to 0.9%, while the forecast was 0.7%. Of course, inflation in Japan has exceeded the 2% target, which is bad. But this is almost nothing compared to inflation in the US, the Eurozone or the UK. So there is no need to worry too much here. So Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that price increases will be extinguished not by tightening monetary policy, but, on the contrary, by injecting 5.5 billion yen from the budget reserve. In addition, the minister said that he is "closely monitoring the movement of the exchange rate", that "it is important that it moves steadily" and that "abrupt movements of the currency are undesirable."

Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, said almost the same thing, word for word, on Friday, September 09, after his meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. His main theses are as follows: "I discussed the foreign exchange market with Kishida", "Fast movements in the exchange rate are undesirable", "We will closely monitor the movement of exchange rates."

We do not know what is so positive in the words of these high officials, but, as the media write, thanks to them the yen received support, and now 45% of experts vote for its further strengthening. Another 45% remain neutral, and only 10% are waiting for further growth of USD/JPY. The indicators on D1 have an absolute advantage on the side of the greens. Among oscillators there are 100% of them, among trend indicators - 90%, and only 10%­ on the side of the reds.

The nearest resistance is 143.75. The bulls' task No.1 is to renew the high of September 07 and gain a foothold above 145.00. Back in the spring, when analyzing the rate of the pair's rise, we made a forecast according to which it could reach a peak of 150.00 in September. And it looks like it's starting to come true. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 142.00, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

No important events in the economic life of Japan are expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Main Week of the Calendar

Last week was marked by another wave of sales. The bitcoin rate approached the June 19 low ($17,600), falling to $18,543 on September 7. At the same time, Ethereum fell below $1,500, an important support/resistance level, and recorded a local bottom at $1,488. This dynamic is primarily due to the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed and, as a result, the strengthening of the US currency. However, later, against the background of the ECB meeting, both coins won back their losses in full, and even seriously increased in quotes. At the time of writing this review, on Friday evening, September 9, they are trading as follows: BTC/USD at $21.275, ETH/USD at $1,715. The total capitalization of the crypto market has risen slightly above the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and is $1.042 trillion ($0.976 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen by another 3 points in seven days from 25 to 22 and is in the Extreme Fear zone.

According to the TradingView service, the ratio of ethereum to bitcoin has grown to its highest values for 2022. It was fixed at 0.0843 in the afternoon of September 06. The last time such a level was noted was in December 2021. 1 BTC is worth about 12.4 ETH at current values.

The ETH community has linked the growth of this indicator to the upcoming network merger. Many users have been talking for almost a year now that a revolution will happen in this tandem sooner or later. Then ethereum will overtake bitcoin in terms of capitalization and value. Recall that the update of the ethereum network is scheduled for the period from September 13 to 20. This merge is likely to be the most important event of 2022 in the cryptocurrency industry. This is because it will bring several key changes to how the network works. The main ones are a 99.99% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease in the emission of the ETH coin.

According to a number of experts, if the transition to the Ethereum 2.0 network and the implementation of the Proof-of-Stake mechanism go as planned, this altcoin can rise sharply in price and pull the entire market up with it, primarily its main competitor, bitcoin. But that's if everything goes smoothly and according to plan. Or maybe not. So, it became known on Wednesday, September 07 that the ethereum network encountered a problem after the Bellatrix update. The blockchain is seeing a noticeable spike in “number of missed blocks,” the frequency with which the network fails to process blocks of transactions scheduled for validation. This figure has increased by about 1700%. Before the update, it was about 0.5%, and after the Bellatrix it rose to 9%.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.”

Experts of u.today portal also remind about macro statistics. They note that September 13 could be an important date, not only because of the merger of the ethereum networks. There is one more factor. As we wrote above, fresh data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on the same day. According to analysts, this information will help investors understand what is happening with the inflation rate in the country and will directly affect the financial markets, including cryptocurrency. If the network update does not cause problems with volatility, liquidity and security, and the CPI shows a decrease in inflation, then a bullish momentum can be predicted, otherwise the crypto market will continue to fall.

Glassnode allowed BTC to fall further to support around $17,000. The specialists do not rule out such a wave of capitulation due to an increase in the proportion of "unprofitable" coins at the disposal of speculators (who traded in the previous 155 days). It rose to 96% (3.11 million BTC out of 3.24 million BTC). The situation was aggravated by the suspension of the bearish rally from June 19 to August 15. The rise in the price to $25,000 and its subsequent fall in just a few days transferred half of the speculators' coin reserves to the category of “unprofitable”.

In the short term, it is the stress testing of speculators that will determine the disposition in the market, since most of the on-chain activity was carried out by them. Three such episodes in the current downtrend had led earlier to sales with a short planning horizon and the subsequent formation of a local bottom.

Analyst Kevin Swenson agrees with Glassnode's alarming outlook. He issued a warning about a possible downward movement of bitcoin as well. The US dollar soared to its highest level in 20 years, while bitcoin fell below the diagonal support that kept the asset afloat from its June lows of $17,600, Swanson said. Swanson admits further bearish scenario for bitcoin as the DXY dollar index is still in a strong uptrend.

Another expert, Naeem Aslam, believes that the fall will not be to the level of $18,000 or $15,000, but much lower, to about $12,000.

Cryptoanalyst Nicholas Merten does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon collapse to a strong support level in the range of $12,000-14,000. He made this forecast based on the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), which shows the state of the positions of BTC holders. (When NUPL is above 0, most investors are in the black. If below 0, then more investors suffer losses).

At the same time, Merten believes that the BTC movement can be unpredictable since the asset has never been traded during a period of tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. He also doubts the imminent return to quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve, as it was in the past. “I would like to note,” the expert writes, “that there has never been a 50% recession, almost depressive correction or a bearish stock market in all 10 years during which BTC has been liquidly traded on exchanges, . There were typical bear markets around 20%, and then the Fed came to the rescue and saved the day. But the Fed cannot do the same now. If you print money and try to save the day, you can seriously exacerbate the problem of inflation.”

And some positive at the end of the review. Despite the fall in the capitalization of the crypto market and the bankruptcy of a number of large projects, the bitcoin hash rate is close to its historical maximum. The situation seems inconsistent with the fall of the main cryptocurrency by more than 70% from the maximum, and the collapse of the shares of public mining companies. However, miners continue to introduce new capacities. Analysts attribute this to the optimism of some companies and the readiness for market turbulence of others. If we add to this the Glassnode data, which observes an increase in the number of coins at the disposal of hodlers, then we can hope that the crypto winter will still be followed by spring.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- Inflation in the US in August that was published on September 13, has amounted to 8.3%. Although this is less than the previous indicator of 8.5%, the figures have not lived up to market expectations. The forecast had assumed a decline to 8.1%. Market participants decided that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates in such a situation. It is expected that the rate will rise by at least another 0.75% next week. As a result, against this background, the dollar began to rise sharply, and risky assets, including bitcoin and ethereum, started to fall. BTC fell below $20,000, ETH fell below $1,550.

- Analysts recorded the largest outflow of funds from crypto funds since June. According to CoinShares, it amounted to $63 million from September 03 to September 09 against $8.7 million a week earlier. Over the past five weeks, the cumulative withdrawal of funds from cryptocurrency products amounted to $99 million. Trade turnover (~$1 billion) was 46% below the average for this year.
The outflow from Ethereum funds continued for the third week in a row at even higher rates ($61.6 million vs. $2.1 million a week earlier). Analysts attributed this to investors' fears about possible problems of The Merge scheduled for September 15.

- The transition of the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will not solve the problems of scalability or high fees, but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. This opinion was expressed by analysts of Bank of America (BofA).
“The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking […] could also drive institutional adoption,” BofA admitted.

- A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.
The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be, filbfilb emphasized.
The expert called the rally of bitcoin in the Q1 2023 "obvious". He sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.
The specialist also commented on the upcoming Merge on the ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the issue of the asset could spur the growth of the coin. At the same time, filbfilb has not ruled out a dump after the event itself, citing the reaction of bitcoin after the halving, which is similar in effect to the merge.

- Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. “A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.”
The trader noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. “Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,” Rekt Capital writes. “But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.”

- Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He noted that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin, but it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. “A significant part of investors are wondering if the current levels are the low of the cycle. It is likely, but it is also worth noting that these levels are a good option for accumulating BTC for the long term. Everyone has seen bitcoin bounce around $19,000 several times, Rager writes. In addition, the analyst believes that the coin is still highly correlated with the S&P 500 index. And therefore, we will not see new cycle lows as long as it is above 3,896 points.

- The dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal.

- Despite the depreciation of BTC, MicroStrategy intends to continue the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks.
Earlier, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO to focus on the company's plans to acquire BTC. MicroStrategy has grown its holdings of bitcoin under his leadership, making it the largest corporate holder of the asset. It currently owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

- Eugene Fama, American economist, and Nobel Prize winner in 2013, believes that the first cryptocurrency will only have value if it is used as money. However, according to the scientist, the viability of bitcoin as a means of payment is greatly reduced due to its high volatility. “Monetary theory says that a unit of account will not survive unless it has a sufficiently stable real value. Its real price should not rise and fall sharply,” the Nobel laureate believes.
Fama disagrees with the claim that BTC is a store of value. According to him, the idea that bitcoin has value should be considered a temporary phenomenon. “There has to be something really useful in the product so that people want to keep it for a very long time. But bitcoin has nothing that gives it value other than the investors who hold it. […] So bitcoin will collapse at some point,” the economist says.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, does not agree with Eugene Fama. He noted during his interview at the SALT conference that he is optimistic about the immediate prospects for the crypto-currency industry. In his opinion, many digital currencies can demonstrate their practical value in the foreseeable future. Novogratz also focused on the fact that the actions of market participants are formed taking into account the general rhetoric regarding a particular crypto project, and not its real functionality.
The expert added that BlackRock's entry into the crypto industry can be considered a monumental event that can have a significant impact on the entire segment in the future. Recall that BlackRock, Inc. is one of the world largest investment companies and the largest in the world in terms of assets.

- According to a survey conducted by Harris Poll, 70% of US crypto investors hope to become billionaires. Harris Poll interviewed 1,900 Americans from all age groups. Those who claim that cryptocurrencies can bring them billions are mostly millennials or generation Z. Analysts emphasized that American youth do not trust traditional financial instruments, while digital currencies, on the contrary, are becoming more and more attractive to them.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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EUR/USD: Ahead of the US Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

The World Bank said last week that risks of a recession in 2023 are growing amid simultaneous tightening of monetary policy by the world's leading Central banks and the energy crisis in Europe. According to Citigroup strategists, the dollar remains the only safe haven for investors to hedge against the risk of drawdown in investment portfolios.

Global stock markets have lost $23 trillion since the early 2022, and bond prices have also declined. As for the US currency, it continues to grow, unlike stocks and other risky assets. According to experts' forecasts, the DXY Dollar Index may come close to 112.00 points over the next three months, renewing a 20-year high. Investors' belief that the US economy will cope better with the impending global recession than the economies of other countries and regions strengthens the dollar as well.

Markets are now focused on the next FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, September 21. The key parameters that determine the monetary policy of the Central Bank at the present stage are inflation and the state of the labor market. Important statistics were released last week, including retail sales and unemployment claims in the US. This data strengthened investors in the opinion that the Fed will continue the policy of quantitative tightening (QT). According to the CME Group, the probability of another rate increase by 75 basis points (bp) is estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%. In addition, Wells Fargo analysts believe that the rate hike will be supplemented by an acceleration in the rate of balance sheet reduction.

The Fed's forecast for a neutral level of interest rates will be updated at this meeting as well. The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2022 is expected to be revised to 3.875%, up from 3.375% in the June forecast.

All of the above steps may lead to further strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the stock market. The reverse scenario will be possible only if the announced plans are suddenly abandoned. However, this can only happen with a sharp decline in GDP, rising unemployment and a convincing victory over inflation. Neither one, nor the other, nor the third has yet been observed in the United States.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published on September 13, fell from 8.5% to 8.3% over the month. However, the forecast assumed a stronger fall, to 8.1%. An additional negative was the rise in core inflation to 6.3% y/y, which is the highest since March and more than three times higher than the Central Bank's target of 2%. But the labor market, on the contrary, is doing quite well, which supports forecasts for a rise in interest rates. Employment growth over the past two months has been robust, averaging 421K new jobs.

As for the Eurozone, inflation accelerated to 9.1% in August. Based on this, some analysts believe that the ECB may also continue to raise the rate in 0.75% increments. However, the next meeting of this regulator is not yet soon, on October 27. So it lags far behind in tightening (QT) from its overseas counterpart. At the same time, according to Rabobank strategists, the unstable situation in the region may mean that “raising rates will not significantly strengthen the euro.” Given the strength of the US dollar, experts believe that the EUR/USD pair may fall to 0.9500 in the coming weeks.

The EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0013. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 16, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 75% of analysts say that the pair will continue moving south in the near future, another 25% vote for the continuation of the side trend along Pivot Point 1.0000. There is not a single vote on the side of the bulls.

Among the trend indicators on D1, 65% are red, 35% are green. Among the oscillators, 25% are on the green side, the same 25% on the red side, and 50% are colored neutral gray.

The pair has been moving along the parity line for the past four weeks. The main trading range was within 0.9900-1.0050. Taking into account breakdowns in both directions, it is somewhat wider: 0.9863-1.0197. The next strong support after the 0.9860 zone is located around 0.9685, the bears' target, as mentioned above, is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 1.0050, 1.0080, 1.0130, then 1.0200 and 1.0254, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

In addition to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting and subsequent forecasts and comments, we expect fresh data on unemployment in the US next week. It will be published on Thursday September 23. And business activity indicators (PMI) in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole will become known at the end of the working week, on Friday, September 23.

GBP/USD: Ahead of the Bank of England Meeting

The British currency has set another anti-record. Having risen to 1.1737 at the beginning of the week, GBP/USD then turned around and flew down rapidly. Wednesday brought a little respite, and then the flight continued. The landing occurred on Friday 16 September at 1.1350. The pair was this low 37 years ago, in 1985. The last chord of the week sounded 75 points higher, at 1.1425.

Apart from the strengthening of the dollar on expectations of a rate hike by the Fed, additional pressure on the British currency was exerted by a drop in retail sales in the United Kingdom. They fell 1.6% m/m in August, more than three times the 0.5% forecast.

According to analysts, a strong technical correction can stop the collapse. And that's only for a while. Strategists from MUFG Bank believe that the downtrend of GBP/USD may continue to a historic low of 1.0520. “With the UK budget and current account deficits combined to reach an impressive 15% of GDP, downward pressure on the GBP will continue,” they write.

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision the next day after the FOMC meeting, on Thursday, September 22. The main forecast suggests that it may rise by 50 bp, from 1.75% to 2.25%. However, it is possible that the regulator will immediately raise the rate to 2.50%, which will support the British currency for some time.

However, this is a double-edged sword. If the rate increase forecast comes true, this will create an even greater burden on the country's economy, whose health is already causing serious concern. We previously wrote that, according to the estimates of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the UK is already in the midst of a recession, and inflation will reach 14% this year. And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023, which will provoke a protracted economic downturn and a contraction of the economy by more than 3.5%. British energy regulator Ofgem has already announced that average annual electricity bills for UK households will rise by 80% from October. And according to the Financial Times, the number of fuel-poor households will more than double in January to 12 million.

Ahead of the Fed and Bank of England meetings, the median outlook for next week looks neutral. A third of the analysts side with the dollar, another third - with the pound, and another third have taken a neutral position. The readings of the indicators on D1 are almost all red again. These are 100% among the trend indicators. For oscillators, 85% point south and 15% point east. No oscillators are pointing north.

As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710-1.1740, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000. The nearest support is in the 1.1400-1.1415 zone, followed by the September 16 low at 1.1350. One can only guess to what levels, given the increased volatility, the pair may fall further. Let us only repeat that the 1985 historical low is at 1.0520.

Among the events of the coming week, except for the Bank of England meeting, the calendar includes Friday, September 23, when data on business activity (PMI) in the UK will be published. It should also be noted that the country has a bank holiday on Monday, September 19.

USD/JPY: Ahead of the Bank of Japan Meeting

In addition to the Fed and Bank of England meetings, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also meet next week. According to forecasts, the Japanese regulator will continue to adhere to the ultra-soft monetary policy and keep the negative interest rate (-0.1%) unchanged.

A miracle can happen of course, but its probability is close to 0. At the same time, the BOJ's unilateral actions, according to economists from Societe Generale, will only be enough to stop the weakening of the yen. But they will not be enough to reverse the USD/JPY downtrend. Societe Generale calls a recession in the US, which will lead to a drop in the yield of US Treasury obligations, as another prerequisite.

USD/JPY ended the trading session last week at 142.90, failing to reach the 145.00 high. However, according to Bank of America analysts, the pair's bullish sentiment remains, and it is still aimed at moving towards 150.00. At the same time, bank specialists note the following three levels: Fibo 38.2% correction (head and shoulders) at 145.18, the peak of 1999 at 147.00, and the target A=C at 149.53.

The closest resistance for the pair, just like a week ago, is 143.75. The bulls' task No. 1 is to gain a foothold above 145.00. Back in the spring, when analyzing the rate of the pair's rise, we made a forecast according to which it could reach a peak of 150.00 in September. And it may come true against the background of a rise in the Fed's interest rate. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 142.00-142.20, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

The opinion of Bank of America analysts is supported by 65% of experts, 25% have taken the opposite position, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Oscillators on D1 are 100% on the green side, although 10% of them signal being overbought. Among trend indicators, 75% are green and ­25% are red.

With the exception of the BOJ meeting, no important macro data on the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week. Traders should also note that Monday, September 19 and Friday, September 23 are non-working days in Japan.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: ETH After the Merge: Fall Instead of Growth



We usually start our review with the main cryptocurrency, bitcoin. But this time, let's deviate from the rules and give the palm to the main altcoin, Ethereum. This is due to an event that may become the most important for the crypto industry in 2022. On September 15, the ETH network hosted the global update The Merge, which involves the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). This means that now the security of the blockchain will be ensured not by miners, but by validators: users who have deposited and blocked their share of coins (staking).

Now, instead of running large networks of computers, validators will use their Ethereum cache as a means of validating transactions and mining new tokens. This should improve the speed and efficiency of the network so that it can process more transactions and solve the problem of user growth. The developers claim that the update will make the network that hosts the ecosystem of cryptocurrency exchanges, lending companies, non-playable token (NFT) markets and other applications more secure and scalable. In addition, cryptocurrencies have been constantly criticized for their huge energy consumption. Ethereum will now consume 99.9% less of it.

Enthusiasts believe that this merge will revolutionize the industry and allow Ethereum to overtake bitcoin in capitalization and value. However, many authoritative voices sound much calmer. For example, Bank of America (BofA) believes that this hard fork will not solve the problem of scalability or high fees but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. “The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking could also drive institutional adoption,” BofA admitted.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors looks more pessimistic. He believes that investors are ignoring the overall market situation in the hype around the Merge. And it’s not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “The reality is more prosaic,” says the CoinShares strategist. “At the global level, investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. And I don't believe that significant amounts of new capital are likely to enter ETH.”

Time will tell how the market will eventually react to the Merge. In the meantime, instead of growth, there has been a fall. The trigger was the collapse of stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq), which was provoked by US inflation data for August. Market participants decided that in such a situation the Fed would tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates. It is expected that the rate will rise by another 0.75% or even 1.0% next week. As a result, the dollar began to rise sharply, while risky assets, including bitcoin and Ethereum, fell. BTC fell to $19,341 by Friday evening, having lost 15% of its value over the week, ETH fell to $1,403, “shrinking” by 20%.

According to many experts, due to the hawkish position of the Fed and the ECB, the dynamics of the crypto market will remain negative at least until the end of the year. Against the backdrop of a reduction in market risk appetite, it will be difficult for bitcoin to stay above not only the psychologically important level of $20,000, but also above the June 18 low of $17,600. The latter threatens a further collapse.

A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the US stock market, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.

The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future. "The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be", filbfilb emphasized.

It should be noted here that the dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal.

However, despite the negative sentiments, there is still hope to see light at the end of the tunnel. The aforementioned filbfilb called bitcoin's Q1 2023 rally "obvious". The expert sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.

Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He agreed that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin. But, in his opinion, it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. “A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.”

Rekt Capital noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. “Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,” Rekt Capital writes. “But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.”

Despite the depreciation of BTC, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, hopes for the best. His company intends to proceed with the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks. Note that MicroStrategy is the largest corporate bitcoin holder. It owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

At the time of writing (Friday evening, September 16), this MicroStrategy investment is deeply unprofitable, as BTC/USD is trading at $19,730 (ETH/USD - $1,435). The total capitalization of the crypto market has again fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and is $0.959 trillion ($1.042 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell 2 points in seven days from 22 to 20 and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


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CryptoNews of the Week



- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy purchased an additional 301 BTC for $6 million. This is stated in the report submitted to the SEC. Michael Saylor, founder and ex-CEO of the company, said that purchases were made between August 2 and September 19 at an average price of $19,851 per BTC. MicroStrategy's previous investment in the first cryptocurrency took place in June: the firm purchased 480 BTC worth about $10 million.
MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries currently own 130,000 BTC, purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,638 per coin. Thus, unrealized losses on this investment exceed $1.5 billion.

- The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve has led to the emergence of "tumors" like bitcoin. This was stated by the philosopher and author of the cult work “Black Swan” Nassim Taleb. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

- Willy Woo, a well-known bitcoin investor and analyst, believes that the BTC rate is being held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin casino where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”
Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now.”

- Nicholas Merten, an analyst and founder of DataDash, believes that after BTC's unsuccessful attempt to stay above $19,000, it will fall to $14,000. In his opinion, this is influenced by both technical and macroeconomic factors.
Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is struggling to rise above this level.
Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”
As for ethereum, Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.
The decline is facilitated by the actions of the Fed, whose hawkish monetary policy caused the collapse of the cryptocurrency and stock markets in 2022. Despite the potential dangers to the economy, Merten does not expect the US Central Bank to stop raising rates until a confident victory over inflation.

- An analyst with the nickname DonAlt believes that BTC will update the lows of 2022 against the backdrop of weak stock market performance. He predicts a fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a serious drop and a return to support at 3680.”

- The ongoing cryptocurrency bear market is unlike any before it as the Fed is running the ship this time around. Ethereum has fallen by about 15% since September 15, the completion date for The Merge update. Bitcoin has fallen by about 3% over the same period.
Ethereum’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation.
Traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

- Investors are wondering if ethereum’s regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case, the coin will attract close attention of the SEC.

- Takis Georgakopoulos, head of the payments division at JPMorgan investment bank, said that customer demand for cryptocurrencies has plummeted over the past six months. Most likely, the situation is related to the fall of the crypto market, which dragged on for several months. More than $2 trillion has disappeared from the market. Well-known companies working with digital assets are on the verge of bankruptcy. For example, Celsius and Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy in July due to lack of liquidity.
Recall that JPMorgan strategists recommended at the end of August that investors focus not on cryptocurrencies, but on stocks and long-term bonds until the economic situation stabilizes.

- Bloomberg Senior Analyst Mike McGlone is convinced that market signals indicate that the value of bitcoin is growing. The expert compared the current fall in cryptocurrency quotes with the fall of the NASDAQ index in 2002 and subsequent stable growth over a long period of time. Mike McGlone argues that bitcoin will benefit from a "new chapter in the economy" in which speculation is driven by more than just how much money the Fed is printing. “The days when unsustainable companies could exist are over. Now, if a business doesn't work, it's sinking. And this is good, because now that the market has cleared after a wave of bankruptcies, it is open to solid business,” he said.

- Central Bank Governor Patrick Njoroge complained at a meeting of the Kenyan Parliament that even in his inner circle there are many people who are trying to convince him to convert reserves countries into bitcoins. The official called the idea insane. And he added that if the country takes the path of legalizing bitcoin, he will oppose it, even under the threat of going to jail. “Can cryptocurrencies be called the best means for making settlements and payments? Are cryptocurrencies safer than a bank account? The answer is no," the governor of the Kenyan Central Bank said.
It is worth noting here that many Central Banks like to keep their reserves in gold bars. And according to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. So the idea under discussion might not be that crazy.


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EUR/USD: In Search of a New Bottom

Last week, all the attention of the markets was focused on the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which took place on September 21. The probability of another rate hike by 75 basis points (bp) had been estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%. The first forecast turned out to be correct: the rate was increased from 2.50% to 3.25%. But this was enough for the DXY dollar index to fly up and exceed 113.00 points, updating another 20-year high. Accordingly, as expected by the majority (75%) of experts, EUR/USD has renewed another 20-year low, reaching the bottom at 0.9667.

Russian President Vladimir Putin contributed to the weakening of the euro and the fall of the pair, announcing the mobilization of part of the military reserve to reinforce the Russian troops that invaded Ukraine. Mr. Putin also repeated the threat to use nuclear weapons, which further increased tension in the region. In addition, the heating season begins in Europe, and Russia continues to put pressure on it, using problems with energy supplies as a "weapon".

At the last meeting, the Fed gave the markets a clear hawkish signal about its next steps. It will continue its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, including reducing its balance sheet, and the interest rate will remain high in 2023. As for the current year, 2022, according to CME Group estimates, the probability that it will exceed 4.00% by the end of Q4 is almost 60%.

According to US Central bank officials, defeating inflation is now a priority. To implement it, the regulator is ready to accept the threat of a recession, including a drop in production and consumption, as well as problems in the labor market.

Investors fleeing risks on side with the dollar as a safe haven. US stock indices have been going down for the second week in a row. The S&P500 fell below its July lows, and the Dow Jones reached its June lowest values.

The last chord of the week for EUR/USD sounded at 0.9693. At the time of writing the review, Friday evening, September 23, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 55% of analysts say that the pair will continue to move south in the near future, while the remaining 45% expect a correction to the north. As for the trend indicators on D1, 100% is colored red, the picture is the same among the oscillators, while 25% signal that the pair is oversold.

The pair's immediate support is the September 23 low at 0.9667, with bears targeting 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9700-0.9735, 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

We are in for a lot of macro-economic statistics this week. The week will be opened by data on GDP (Q3) and IFO business climate in Germany, which will be released on Monday September 26. Data from the US consumer market will be received the next day, and the US GDP (Q2) will become known on Thursday, September 29. Statistics on sales and the labor market in Germany, as well as on the consumer markets of the Eurozone (CPI) and the United States, will be published in turn on the last day of the five-day period and the month, September 30. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech this week on September 26, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on September 27.

GBP/USD: Back to the Past: Return to 1985

The Bank of England raised the pound rate by 50 bp up to 2.25% the day after the Fed meeting, on Thursday September 22. However, as expected, this did not help the British currency much. More precisely, given the current macroeconomic situation, it did not help at all. In just 10 days, from September 13 to 23, GBP/USD flew about 900 points, falling to its lowest level in 37 years. The bottom was found on Friday at 1.0838, which was in line with 1985 levels.

Disappointing economic data from the United Kingdom continues to weigh heavily on the pound. Business activity in the private sector continued to fall. The Preliminary Composite PMI, with a forecast of 49.0 points, actually fell from 49.6 to 48.4 over the month. In addition, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which speaks on behalf of 190,000 businesses, showed that the balance of retail sales fell to -20 in September from +37 in August.

According to the Bank of England's own forecasts, the country is close to a deep recession. And according to the estimates of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the recession is already in full swing, and inflation will reach 14% by the end of the year. Next year also does not bode well: according to strategists at Goldman Sachs, inflation could reach 22% by the end of 2023.

To combat it, the Bank of England has moved to more aggressive rate hikes. But the tightening of monetary policy takes place simultaneously with an increase in budget spending. Moreover, the government will most likely not have enough of its own funds to pay businesses and households the announced partial compensation of electricity bills. Therefore, it will have to take large loans, which will not benefit the national currency either. (We have already reported that British energy regulator Ofgem announced that average annual bills will rise by 80% from October, and the number of households in fuel poverty could reach 12 million people in January).

The pair closed last week at 1.0867. But the range 1.0800-1.0838 is unlikely to become a strong enough support. Having broken it, the bears will rush to the historical low of 1985 of 1.0520, to which there are only about 300 points left. Given the pace of the fall of the pair, it can reach this goal in one to two weeks. Of course, a correction is not ruled out due to the oversold pound. If the pair turns north, it will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1000-1.1020, 1.1100, 1.1215, 1.1350, 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710-1.1740. The return of the pair to the heights around 1.1800-1.2000 seems unlikely in the coming weeks.

Experts' forecast for the coming week looks quite unique: all 100% side with the British currency. As for the indicators on D1, all 100% point exactly in the opposite direction. However, 50% of the oscillators are in the deep oversold zone, which confirms experts' expectations regarding a correction to the north.

The event calendar can mark Friday, September 30, when UK GDP (Q2) data will be released.

USD/JPY: Miracle from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan



As we predicted, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remained true to itself at its meeting on September 22 and kept its interest rate at a negative, ultra-dove level of -0.1%. However, we still have to admit our mistake. We wrote last week that the Japanese financial authorities should not expect a miracle. But a miracle did happen. As USD/JPY crept up to 146.00, the Treasury's seemingly steely nerves snapped and it ordered the BOJ to intervene in support of the yen.

As a result, the pair avalanched 550 pips, showing the most volatility since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Then the shock passed, the situation calmed down a bit, and the pair returned to the values of the beginning of the working week, ending it at the level of 143.30.

This pullback confirms some analysts' view that the yen's strength is unlikely to be long-term and that USD/JPY will return to storm the 146.00 high again. “In the absence of major changes in fundamentals or (unlikely) concerted action against the US dollar, the chances of a sustained rebound in the Japanese yen are limited,” Scotiabank macro strategists say. “The key issue here, of course, is the divergence in monetary policy settings between the US and Japan, which has caused the Japanese yen to plummet since the Fed first began raising interest rates in earnest in the spring.”

Scotiabank believes that markets are likely to retest the 146.00 level to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan. And the Japanese Central Bank will have to spend billions of USD to protect this level. Moreover, it may even ask the ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed to act as their agent outside of business hours in Tokyo. However, it is likely that the Bank of Japan will try to fight off the strong dollar alone.

Experts' median forecast for the near future is as follows. 45% of experts side with the bulls, 45% have taken the opposite position, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Oscillators on D1 have 40% on the green side, 10% on the red side, and 50% are colored neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 9 to 1 in favor of the green ones.

The nearest resistance for the pair, as in the last two weeks, is 143.75. The objectives of bulls No. 1 and No. 2 are to gain a foothold above 145.00 and then storm the height of 146.00. This is followed by 146.78, the level reached before the joint actions of Japan and the US to support the yen in 1998. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 143.00, 142.60, 142.00-142.20, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. However, there are two events that are of particular interest in the light of the decision to intervene. A press conference by BOJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled for Monday, September 26, and the report on the last meeting of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee will be published on Wednesday, September 28. In both cases, the market will try to understand how serious the regulator is about supporting its national currency.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bearish Sentiment Persists

So is bitcoin digital gold after all? According to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. However, judging by how both of these assets have been behaving lately, the best alternative for both of them is the US dollar. Physical gold peaked at $2,070 on March 08, 2022, after which it went down, having lost about 20% of its value so far. As for its digital counterpart, the all-time high of $67,273 occurred on November 10, 2021, and the loss is now approximately 71%. If we compare these figures, it turns out that XAU/USD was falling by 0.10% daily, while BTC/USD was falling twice as fast, by 0.22% per day. Draw your own conclusions. We only note that it is not gold and bitcoin that are to blame for what is happening, but the gaining strength of the dollar, which is growing along with the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve. So, another rate hike led to a fall in cryptocurrency quotes last week. Gold, on the other hand, although made a couple of jumps, returned to its previous price this time. After all, unlike BTC, it is a protective asset, not a risky one. Although, it is also receding step by step under the pressure of the American currency.

When it comes to precious metals, few people use derogatory epithets. Even though their price is falling as well. But in relation to cryptocurrencies, as much as you like. So, for example, the philosopher and author of the cult work "The Black Swan" Nassim Taleb called bitcoin a "tumor" that appeared due to the wrong policy of the Fed. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

Well-known bitcoin investor and analyst Willy Woo agrees that it is the US government that is now running the “ship”. True, on the contrary, he would like this “tumor” to be larger, but its growth is held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin casino where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”

Willy Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now,” the investor sighs sadly.

DataDash analyst and founder Nicholas Merten expects the US Central bank to continue raising interest rates until it achieves a solid victory over inflation. And this, in turn, will push the quotes of digital assets further down. According to Merten, this is influenced not only by macroeconomic, but also by technical factors.

Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is failing to rise above this level.

Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”

An analyst with the nickname DonAlt agrees with Merten, he believes that BTC will update the 2022 lows amid weak stock market performance. DonAlt predicts the coin will fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and form a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a big drop.”

We paid a lot of attention to the main competitor of bitcoin, ethereum, in the previous review. This was due to a very important event: the global update The Merge took place in the ETH network on September 15, including the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). Ethereum has fallen by about 20% since then. And we have repeatedly warned about this possibility, citing the opinions of various experts.

The coin’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation. According to Ayyar, traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

However, inflation and rising rates are not the only factors that may affect the quotes of digital assets. So now investors are wondering if ethereum's regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case the coin will attract the close attention of the SEC, and it is unknown how this may end. For example, DataDash's Nicholas Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.

At the time of this writing (Friday evening, September 23), bitcoin and ethereum have partially recouped the fall caused by the Fed's decision. BTC/USDis trading at $18,900 ( ETH/USD is $1,320). The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.929 trillion ($0.959 trillion a week ago). Like seven days ago, Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 20 points and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- Analysts have estimated the “painful” breakeven threshold for miners at $18,300. According to Glassnode's calculations, 78,400 BTC could be at risk of liquidation if the price of bitcoin goes below this price, which follows from the mining difficulty regression model. This value is slightly higher than the June low of $17,840.
Against the background of price stability, mining metrics are improving, which is a signal that the situation will improve in the coming months. In particular, the hash rate reached a record 242 EH/s. The growth of computing power is due to the introduction of the most efficient ASIC devices. This confirms the dynamics of revenue per EH/s (4.06 BTC). In dollar terms, it ranges from $78,000-$88,000. The last time such values were observed was after the halving in October 2020, when bitcoin was worth half what it is now (~$10,000).
The balances of miners, which account for 96% of the current hash rate, have 78,400 BTC, the maximum number of coins that can increase sales in case of stress for this category of market participants. At the moment, most of the sales are carried out by miners associated with the Poolin pool. In September, representatives of this company admitted that there were problems with liquidity.
Glassnode experts also noted a growing likelihood of increased volatility after a long period of consolidation in the $18,000-20,000 range.

- McDonald's restaurant chain has started accepting BTC payments in Lugano, Switzerland. Back in March, Lugano authorities announced that they would make digital gold, USDT, and the city's LVGA token "de facto" legal tender. The decision was the development of an initiative to turn the city into the “Bitcoin Capital of Europe”.

- Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the bestseller Rich Dad, Poor Dad, called the strengthening of the US dollar an excellent opportunity to buy the first cryptocurrency and other digital assets. “Buy more. When the Fed turns around and cuts interest rates, you will smile while others cry,” he said.

- George Soros' former Quantum associate, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, predicted a revival of digital assets amid the collapse of the fiat-based economy. He said this at the CNBC conference. The financier expects a "hard landing" of the economy in 2023 against the backdrop of an aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
In his opinion, quantitative easing and low rates led to bubbles in financial markets. These factors have not only been stopped now, but reversed. The Fed has begun cutting its $9 trillion balance and has already managed to raise the key rate five times to 3.25%, expecting its peak at 4.60%. “You don’t even need to talk about black swans to start worrying,” the billionaire said. In his opinion, if confidence in the actions of central banks is lost, cryptocurrencies “will play a big role in the revival”.

- Unlike global investors, ordinary people look at what is happening a little differently. The collapse in the crypto assets market forced not only the older generation, but also young people to reconsider their attitude towards them. The financial company Bankrate conducted a survey, according to which, the number of Americans who were comfortable investing in digital money has dropped sharply.
Millennials, who had previously been considered most open to new technologies, have lost confidence in cryptocurrencies more than others. The percentage of young people for whom cryptocurrencies were a convenient investment method fell from 49% in 2021 to 29% in 2022. People between the ages of 40 and 55 are losing trust in digital assets as well. Over the year, this figure fell from 37% to 21%. Among the older generation, the figure fell from 21% to 11%.
“It's much easier to invest enthusiastically in something when you see its value constantly increasing,” says Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate. “A real test of the faith happens when the market falls, and what you fervently believed until recently ceases to be profitable. Recent movements have forced many to reconsider their attitude towards the digital asset market radically.”

- Some different data was provided by The Block. According to their calculations, despite the global bearish trend, the number of active investors in the bitcoin network continues to grow. This trend is due to the serious economic crisis in Europe, against the background of which retailers are increasingly investing in the main cryptocurrency in order to diversify risks. According to The Block, the number of investors in the bitcoin ecosystem has grown by 4.5 million since January 1, 2022.
It is noteworthy that the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 0.01 BTC reached an all-time high of 10.7 million this month. About 47% of holders remain in profit, despite the flagship cryptocurrency's prolonged drawdown relative to its historical maximum.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz suggested that a reversal could form in the stock market in October. The expert also stressed that the Fed's policy is likely to remain aggressive. And there are no clear signs so far that the US department is ready to cut interest rates, as such a drastic move would harm efforts to combat inflation. However, the expert did not rule out that the regulator may re-initiate the quantitative easing procedure at some point in order to stabilize the market situation.
The head of Galaxy Digital believes that bitcoin looks quite stable in the current macroeconomic conditions, and that BTC will still be able to reach $500,000 within a few years.

- Unlike many optimists, cryptocurrency strategist and trader Cantering Clarke expects BTC to crash to five-year lows amid stock market weakness. According to his calculations, bitcoin could fall by almost 40% from current levels if the S&P 500 stock index resumes its bearish trend. “If the S&P 500 drops to the next major area between 3,200-3,400 [pips], I think the correct assumption is that the crypto crash will be 2-3 times greater. This means at least that BTC will re-test the largest protrusion in five years: about $12,000-13,000,” the trader warns.
However, in the short term, he believes bitcoin bulls could bring back some confidence to the market if they manage to gain a foothold above $20,000. “If we can break these local highs, I think BTC will see some momentum,” Cantering Clark predicts.

- Social media users are vigorously discussing the fact that October 7 will be a key day for the cryptocurrency market this week. The fact is that the US authorities will announce updated data on unemployment and wages in the non-agricultural sector of the country this Friday. Employment and CPI data will signal how much the Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting in November.
Experts are clearly divided on the future of the industry. Some of them predict a rapid growth in the exchange rate of the flagship cryptocurrency and altcoins due to the geopolitical situation in the world. Others, on the contrary, predict a protracted crisis. In their opinion, the industry will face a crypto winter in the next few years, so there is no point in waiting for prices to rise.

- According to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, failure to regulate cryptocurrencies could harm the entire US financial system. According to her, this industry, left without regulation, is fraught with risks, although they do not pose a “real threat” to financial stability so far.
A true cascade of defaults and bankruptcies in the crypto industry has led firms like Celsius, Voyager, and Three Arrows to file for bankruptcy and prevent clients from withdrawing funds. We can recall the fall of the Luna token and the Terra stablecoin associated with it. All this led to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deciding to increase its focus on the digital asset market by doubling its crypto division staff in May. And SEC chief Gary Gensler even called this entire industry the “Wild West”.

- Increased regulation of cryptocurrencies is often frowned upon by crypto investors, and the threat of such increased regulation has often been a bearish factor for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees the US futures market, believes that proper regulation could have a powerful bullish effect on the price of BTC.
CFTC chief Rostin Behnam explained that a clear regulatory framework could help increase the number of institutional investors. According to him, “these incumbent institutions in the crypto space see a huge opportunity for an institutional influx that will only happen if a regulatory structure is put in place around this market.” Behnam also noted that the bill submitted to the US Senate would make the CFTC the main regulator of the crypto industry, expanding the commission's powers and requiring crypto firms to register with the CFTC.

- The founder and CEO of The Birb Nest brand Ardian Zdunczyk shared his thoughts on bitcoin and what cryptocurrency can expect in the last quarter of the year. He noted that historically the fourth quarter was successful for BTC, and it would be interesting to see if the leader of the crypto market can repeat the previous successes. Zdunczyk cited historical data, proving that investors can expect good returns over the next two months. True, he made a reservation that no one would give guarantees.
Another argument in favor of the pre-New Year rally is the fact that the coins have risen slightly compared to their 200-day trends. Unlike fiat currencies that show roller coasters, bitcoin is stable in the range of $19,000 to $20,000. And now all markets are waiting for stability. They are already tired of the recession, the fall in company shares, the IMF's gloomy forecasts, and the ill-conceived policies of the Central Banks. Therefore, against such a background, bitcoin is becoming more and more attractive.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in September 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

Gold, or rather the XAU/USD pair, remains one of the most popular instruments among traders of the NordFX brokerage company. So, it was this precious metal that helped them take all three steps of the podium in September.

- The highest profit in the first month of autumn was received by a client from West Asia, account No. 1634XXX. Trading on the XAU/USD pair, this trader managed to earn 34,551 USD.
- The second step on the September podium went to the representative of East Asia (account No.1646XXX), whose result of 24,154 USD was also achieved thanks to transactions with gold.
- This precious metal helped another trader from West Asia as well (account No.1632XXX) enter the September TOP-3 with a profit of 22,735 USD.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

- At CopyTrading, we highlighted a number of startups a month ago. That's what we call them because of their short lifespan, which is an additional risk factor. Three such signals continued to work in September, still attracting attention. These are Andy EU250 (profit 372%/maximum drawdown 26%/75 days of life), JANUNGFX (261%/48%/75) and PT_bot Scalping (51%/8%/99) signals. Here, as usual, we recall that, in addition to a short lifespan, aggressive trading is a serious risk factor. Therefore, we urge you to be extremely cautious when working on financial markets.

- As for “veteran” signals, the first of them, KennyFXPro, Prismo 2K, has increased profits to 208% in 522 days with a maximum drawdown of about 45%. The readings of the second, KennyFXPro - The Cannon Ball, are slightly lower in all respects: a lifespan of 190 days, a profit of 61%, a drawdown of slightly less than 13%.

- The TOP-3 in thePAMM service has undergone certain changes over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. The capital on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 155% in 621 days. The account TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 also remained among the leaders, showing a profit of 117% in 553 days. Both of these accounts have a very moderate maximum drawdown, about 20%. KennyFXPro - The Multi 3000 v2, closes the top three, which showed a return of 32% in 103 days of life with a drawdown of less than 14%.

TOP 3 NordFX IB Partners in September are as follows:
- the largest commission amount, 15,684 USD was accrued to the partner with account No.1645ХXХ;
- the second place went to the owner of account No.1507ХХХ, who received 8,394 USD;
- and, finally, the partner with account No.1633XXX, who received 7,178 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: It's Getting Worse in the EU, It's Getting Better in the US

EUR/USD updated another 20-year low on September 28, bottoming at 0.9535. This was followed by a correction, and the pair came close to the parity level on Tuesday, October 04, rising to 0.9999. However, the happiness of the bulls was short-lived, followed by another reversal to the south and the finish line at 0.9737.

Judging by the economic macro statistics, the advantage will remain on the side of the bears for a long time to come. According to the latest data, the index of business activity in the services sector (ISM) of the Eurozone fell from 49.8 to 48.8 points. A similar indicator in the US decreased as well, but much less: from 56.9 to 56.7, and at the same time it turned out to be higher than the forecast of 56.0 points.

Things are even worse in Germany: this locomotive of the region's economy, instead of pushing the pan-European train forward, began to pull it back. The service sector activity index sank from 47.7 to 45.0 points, while the Composite Index fell from 46.9 to 45.7 points.

The August data on trade in Germany also indicate serious problems. Imports increased by 3.4%, more than three times the forecast of 1.1%. As a result, the country's trade surplus fell from €3.4 billion to €1.2 billion.

This depressed state of the economy against the background of continuing inflation suggests the threat of stagflation in the Eurozone. The increase in energy prices adds to the negative. And it is likely to continue, as the OPEC + countries decided to seriously reduce oil production. Recall that these prices were one of the most powerful triggers for the global wave of inflation. Another negative factor is the proximity of the EU countries to the theater of Russian-Ukrainian military operations, especially since Russian President V. Putin constantly threatens to use nuclear weapons.

The situation in the US is much better, which contributes to the strengthening of the US currency across the board. The country is far from the Russian-Ukrainian front, and the oil and gas crisis does not threaten it. According to ADP, private sector employment rose by 208K in September, above market expectations of 200K. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector of the country (NFP) also turned out to be higher than expected: 263K against 250K, and unemployment in the US decreased from 3.7% to 3.5% over the month.

This situation in the labor market allows the Fed to continue to fight inflation, using the policy of quantitative tightening (QT) and raising the interest rate on the dollar. Atlanta Fed chief Rafael Bostic said the tightening cycle is "still at the very beginning" and warned against betting on a "reversal" soon. Similar statements were made by his colleague Mary Daly from San Francisco. What will actually happen to the rate will be known on November 2, when the next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Central Bank will take place.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday October 07, the votes of the experts were distributed as follows. 50% of analysts say that the pair will continue to move south in the near future, another 30% expect it to move north, and the remaining 20% vote for a sideways trend. Among the trend indicators on D1, 40% are red, 25% are green and 35% are neutral gray. The picture is completely different among the oscillators: all 100% advise to sell the pair.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 0.9700-0.9725, followed by 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

As for the upcoming week, the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, as well as the speech of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, will give food for forecasts on Wednesday, October 12. The following day, Thursday 13 October, will see data from the consumer market (CPI) in Germany, as well as from the consumer market and the US labour market. US retail sales, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will become known at the very end of the working week, on Friday, October 14.

GBP/USD: A Disservice for the British Pound

As a result of the shock collapse on September 23-26, the British pound almost reached parity with the dollar. After flying 860 pips, the pair landed at 1.0350, below the 1985 low.

Such a record head-down throw was provoked by British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng, who, instead of the planned increase, announced a program to reduce the tax burden for citizens and legal entities of the country. That is, in the context of inflation, which exceeded 10% in July, and could rise to 14% by the end of the year, in the face of growing public debt and the problems that have accumulated since Brexit, the government decided to turn around and return to quantitative easing (QE) . Alas for a while, this was enough to knock down the national currency.

The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that this decision, along with previous support programs for the population and continued high energy prices, will lead to an increase in public debt from the current 96% to 320% of GDP over the next 50 years. The Parliament of the United Kingdom immediately talked about a vote of no confidence in the government of the country. Even the IMF flinched in surprise and lashed out at the British Cabinet. There is no need to talk about citizens: in anticipation of a further fall in the pound, they began to actively buy up gold and cryptocurrencies. New account openings have more than doubled, according to Bullion Vault, the London Bullion Market Association. A twofold increase in trading volumes for the BTC/GBP pair was also registered on crypto exchanges. In other words, what has been called a “disservice” since ancient times has happened.

The final chord of the week was set at 1.1079. According to strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, the current levels of the pound are unstable, given the instability of the bond market, the deterioration of the fiscal situation and the state of the UK current operations account. Therefore, they predict a return of GBP/USD below 1.1000. Their colleagues from MUFG Bank expect it to fall again to the lows of the last ten days of September. As for the median forecast, here the majority of analysts (55%) side with the bears as well. 15% expect the pound to strengthen, and 30% have taken a neutral position. All 100% of the oscillators on D1 point exactly south. But the picture is mixed among the trend indicators: 35% are colored red, the same amount is green, and the remaining 30% are gray. The nearest levels and support zones are 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0500-1.0740 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. In case the pair reverses to the north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1230, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1720, 1.1800 1.1960.

The event calendar can mark Tuesday, October 11, when UK unemployment data will be released. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will make a speech by the end of the same day.

USD/JPY: “Sharp Yen Movements Are Undesirable”



Recall that the experts' median forecast for USD/JPY looked more than uncertain two weeks ago. Then 45% of the experts sided with the bulls, 45% took the opposite position, the remaining 10% remained neutral. And this uncertainty has been fully confirmed: the pair has been moving in the side channel 143.50-145.30 since September 26, spending most of the time in an even narrower trading range of 144.00-144.85. The assault on the height of 146.00 has not happened. The strengthening of the yen, which bears hoped for after the Japanese Ministry of Finance ordered the Central Bank (BOJ), for the first time in 24 years, to intervene in support national currency, has not happened either.

A record amount of 2.8 trillion yen ($19.3 billion) was allocated for this purpose last month. As a result of this move, Japan's foreign exchange reserves fell by 4.2% to $1.238 trillion. The country's total foreign exchange reserves were $1.409 trillion a year ago. Japan's deposits in other countries' Central Banks, the volume of foreign securities, and gold reserves have also decreased.

It looks like the country's leadership is quite satisfied with the lull in USD/JPY quotes. Thus, the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, commenting on the last intervention on October 7, stated that "the recent sharp, one-sided movements of the yen are undesirable." And this raises the question: did the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank take such a step contrary to the Prime Minister's position? Or did they not expect such an increase in volatility?

At the same time, the fact remains that, as we predicted, there was no long-term strengthening of the Japanese currency, and USD/JPY finished last week at 145.30 Supports are located in zones and at levels 144.85, 144.20, 143.50, 142.60, 141.80-142.20 and 140.25-140.60. The bulls' task No. 1 is to prevent the pair from falling below 145.00, and task No. 2 is to storm the height of 146.00. This is followed by 146.78, the level reached before the joint actions of Japan and the US to support the yen in 1998. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are 100% on the green side, although among the latter, one third signal that the pair is overbought.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. In addition, traders should keep in mind that Monday, October 10, is a day off in the country, National Sports Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Is Still Gold. Although Digital One.

According to The Block, despite the global bearish trend, the number of active investors in the bitcoin network has increased by 4.5 million since January 01, 2022. The number of bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 0.01 BTC has reached an all-time high of 10.7 million in the last few weeks alone (At the same time, about 47% of holders remain in profit, despite the flagship cryptocurrency’s long drawdown relative to the all-time high).

This dynamic is due to a serious economic crisis in Europe, against which retail holders are increasingly investing in the main cryptocurrency in order to diversify risks. It suffices to cite the UK as an example, where, due to the loss of confidence in the government's fiscal policy, the pound went into a peak on September 23-26. As a result, panic-stricken investors began to convert the British currency into physical gold and crypto-assets. We wondered in the last forecast if BTC is digital gold. In the case of the UK, the answer is yes.

What happened suggests that the destabilization of traditional financial markets can benefit the crypto market. And this is not just our opinion. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, a former associate of George Soros at Quantum, predicted a resurgence of digital assets amid the collapse of the fiat-based economy. He stated this at the CNBC conference. The financier expects a "hard landing" of the economy in 2023 against the backdrop of an aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

In his opinion, quantitative easing and low rates led to bubbles in financial markets. These factors have not only been stopped now, but reversed. The Fed has begun cutting its $9 trillion balance and has already managed to raise the key rate five times to 3.25%, expecting its peak at 4.60%. “You don’t even need to talk about black swans to start worrying,” the billionaire said. In his opinion, if confidence in the actions of central banks is lost, cryptocurrencies “will play a big role in the revival”.

Not only Stanley Druckenmiller, but the market as a whole fear that the economy will not be able to withstand such monetary tightening. In addition to the rate hike, the monthly rate of contraction in the global money supply, according to Morgan Stanley, has reached $750 billion in dollar terms. This is leading to a deepening recession. it is only the Fed that can change the situation if it retreats from its plans to combat inflation. Looking to the future, Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author Robert Kiyosaki called the current situation a great opportunity to buy the first cryptocurrency and other digital assets. “Buy more. When the Fed turns around and cuts interest rates, you will smile while others cry,” he said.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, gave a similar forecast. This expert did not rule out that the regulator may re-initiate the quantitative easing procedure at some point in order to stabilize the market situation. In his opinion, bitcoin looks quite stable even in the current macroeconomic conditions. And in the event of a change in the policy of the Fed, BTC will still be able to reach $500,000 within a few years.

As for the near future, Ardian Zdunczyk, founder and CEO of The Birb Nest, shared his forecast here. He referred to historical data, according to which the fourth quarter has always been successful for BTC. Based on this, investors can expect good returns over the next two months. True, Zdunczyk made a reservation straight away that no one would give guarantees on this score.

Another argument in favor of the pre-New Year rally, according to the specialist, is the fact that the coins rose slightly compared to their 200-day trends. Unlike fiat currencies that are on a rollercoaster ride, bitcoin is holding steady around $20,000. And now all markets are waiting for stability. They are already tired of the recession, the fall in company stocks, the gloomy forecasts of the IMF and the ill-conceived policies of the Central Banks, says Ardian Zdunczyk. Therefore, against such a background, bitcoin is becoming more and more attractive.

Against the backdrop of BTC price stability, mining-related metrics are also improving. In particular, the hash rate reached a record 242 EH/s. Analysts have estimated the “painful” breakeven threshold for miners at $18,300. According to Glassnode's calculations, 78,400 BTC could be at risk of liquidation if bitcoin goes below this price, which is derived from a mining difficulty regression model. This value is slightly higher than the June low of $17,840.

The balances of miners have 78,400 BTC, the maximum number of coins that can increase sales in case of stress for this category of market participants. At the moment, most of the sales are carried out by miners associated with the Poolin pool. In September, representatives of this company admitted that there were problems with liquidity.

Cryptocurrency strategist and trader Cantering Clark also warns that BTC could plunge to five-year lows amid weak stock markets. According to his calculations, bitcoin could fall by almost 40% from current levels if the S&P 500 stock index resumes its bearish trend. “If the S&P 500 drops to the next major area between 3,200-3,400 [pips], I think the correct assumption is that the crypto crash will be 2-3 times greater. This means at least that BTC will re-test the largest protrusion in five years: about $12,000-13,000,” the trader predicts.

However, in the short term, he believes bitcoin bulls could bring back some confidence to the market if they manage to gain a foothold above $20,000. “If we can break these local highs, I think BTC will see some momentum,” Cantering Clark thinks.

Social media users had been recently discussing vigorously the fact that October 07 will be a key day for the cryptocurrency market last week. The reason for this is the release of data on the US labor market that day. Together with CPI, these statistics allow us to predict how much the Fed can raise interest rates at its next meeting in November. And this, in turn, will certainly affect the value of risky assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The market reacted to the release of these data by lowering the quotations of risky assets: at the time of writing the review (Friday evening, October 07), BTC/USD went below $20,000 and is trading at $19,610. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.946 trillion ($0.935 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen only 1 point in seven days, from 22 to 23, and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.

And at the end of the review, as usual, we will try to give everyone a boost of optimism. According to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the crypto industry, left unregulated, is fraught with risks and could harm the entire US financial system. Usually, such statements were perceived by the market as a threat, and became a bearish factor for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees the US futures market, believes that proper regulation could have a powerful bullish effect on the price of BTC. CFTC chief Rostin Behnam explained that a clear regulatory framework would help boost the number of institutional investors.

There is no doubt that the US government agencies will soon squeeze the crypto industry into their regulatory “embrace”. But what if that's when Mike Novogratz's predictions come true, and we see bitcoin at around $500,000?


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- Paul Tudor Jones, a trader and founder of the Tudor Investment Hedge Fund, said in an interview with CNBC that he continues to hold a position in the first cryptocurrency. “I still have a small bitcoin investment,” Jones noted. According to this Wall Street King, the first and second most capitalized cryptocurrencies will be valuable “at some point” because of too much money.
Jones pointed to the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. It was quite simple until 2018, but the regulator “went too far with quantitative easing” two years later to support the economy, and then changed its strategy drastically. “Inflation is a bit like toothpaste,” the famous trader explained. "Once you squeeze it out of the tube, it will be difficult to put it back. The Fed is furiously trying to wash that taste out of their mouths. […] If we go into a recession, it will have a really negative impact on a range of assets.”

- Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted a rise in the bitcoin price by the end of 2022. Digital gold and ethereum tend to outperform most major assets during economic downturns. Therefore, McGlone called the increase in interest rates by Central banks “a strong tailwind.”
He noted that October has been the best month for bitcoin since 2014. At the same time, the analyst believes that ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm can help ETH and BTC gain a foothold above the $1,000 and $20,000 levels, respectively.

- A popular crypto analyst known as Dave the Wave accurately predicted the bitcoin crash in May 2021. He believes now that if bitcoin equals gold in the long term in market capitalization, this will be equal to an increase in its price by about 40 times. According to the expert, this global goal can be achieved within two decades.
Dave the Wave also notes that the MACD momentum indicator may indicate soon if BTC has hit the market bottom. “The recent local downtrend is now equal to the previous uptrend. A monthly closure with a strength/contraction histogram will contribute to a significant assumption [if not confirmation] of the bottom.”

- Google has announced that it will soon start accepting payments for subscriptions to its own cloud services in cryptocurrency. This was reported by the CNBC news agency. The partner of the IT giant is the Coinbase crypto exchange. It is noted that Google will accept 10 types of cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and even Dogecoin. The feature will become available in early 2023. At the first stages, only “a few corporate clients in the world” will be able to pay Google with cryptocurrency. However, a much larger number of Google users will later access it.
According to CNBC, Coinbase will receive a commission on each transaction, the amount of which has not yet been disclosed. However, it is noted that as part of the partnership, Coinbase will abandon Amazon's cloud infrastructure in favor of a similar solution from Google.

- Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin's current low price volatility will begin to increase in the second half of October, after US inflation data is released. Together with the latest data on retail sales and labor market dynamics, it will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market.
The next important point is early November, when the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%. The probability of this is estimated above 90% at the Chicago CME Group. If so, according to JP Morgan, the S&P 500 index, which has lost 24.21% since the start of the year, faces a new collapse of about 20%. Thus, investors will be able to receive less than $56 out of the $100 dollars that they invested in the shares of the 500 largest US companies.
Bitcoin's price is sure to react to such a move in the US stock market, but how? Opinions differ here. Wall Street stock prices, like any other risky asset measured in USD, are under pressure that the dollar DXY index is rising and is now reaching its highest level since May 2002 (113 points). However, the correlation of cryptocurrencies with the stock market is not stable: it either rises or falls. And it will become clear in the foreseeable future whether bitcoin can become a hedge asset against the risk of unwinding global inflation at this stage.

- Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal said that the macroeconomic background is beginning to look attractive for investing in cryptocurrencies. Many investors are now in a state of extreme fear, fearing that the global financial system will soon collapse. And this could be a growth catalyst for risky assets like bitcoin and altcoins.
According to the businessman, investors are very negative and are playing it safe. Previously, the market had incredibly high amounts of investments, but the market does not work now, as sellers predominate over buyers. This situation may encourage the Fed to relax its monetary policy.
“There is currently no liquidity on the market, as only sellers are left there. I think this will cause huge problems in the future. Ultimately, businesses will demand more money to be issued and the situation on the market to be changed,” said Raul Pal. So once Central banks start printing money again, assets like bitcoin and altcoins will rise. “This is a sad state of affairs, but this is the real situation,” says the financier. “You will be able to see when the shift comes and use it to your advantage by investing in cryptocurrencies.”

- An experienced cryptocurrency market expert Zack Voell, who is a mining analyst at Braiins, shared a model that reflects the dynamics of bitcoin (BTC) prices in previous bear cycles. He studied the behavior of quotes in all past periods between highs and lows, on the basis of which he predicted a fall in the BTC rate to $13,800.
The analyst emphasized that he studied the behavior of the bitcoin price in 2011, then in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018, as well as during the current cycle, which began in November 2021. According to him, the value of the cryptocurrency lost more than 80% of its peak values the last two times. If history repeats, the rate will fall to at least this mark and may even go lower.
He noted among other things that the bearish cycle of 2011 led to a drop in the value of BTC by as much as 95%. However, this happened when the cryptocurrency was practically unknown to anyone and was not on the way to mass adoption.
Voell also noted that despite the negative sentiment, bitcoin was the most profitable asset in Q3 2022. Digital gold has shown extreme stability over the past months. In addition to BTC, according to statistics published by NYDIG, only precious metals and fiat USD turned out to be profitable in Q3.

- According to the analytical cryptocurrency platform Santiment, large bitcoin holders have increased their BTC savings by 46.173 coins (about $929 million) since September 27.
The list of so-called whales includes owners of addresses that store between 100 and 10,000 bitcoins. Analysts stressed that such activity by large coin holders is very rare this year. Apparently, bitcoins were bought with USDT stablecoins: the the latter's stocks in whales' wallets have fallen significantly.
It is quite possible that large holders expect the crypto market to grow. Indeed, bitcoin has been trading along the Power Point $20,000 for several weeks now, and this is an accumulation phase that should give way to an up phase. At the same time, 45.72% of all available bitcoins were stored on whale wallets at the end of September: this is the lowest figure in the last 29 months.
It has been repeatedly said that the fall in digital and other risky assets is associated with an increase in base rates by regulators in the United States and other world leading economies. However, financial analysts expect the Central banks of these countries to start cutting rates to combat the economic recession. This should push the price of bitcoin up.

- The bitcoin consolidation near the $20,000 level continues, and one of the tools used to determine the possible movement of the price of BTC is the Blockchain Center’s rainbow price chart. It shows how past price statistics can help predict the future behavior of an asset.
In the long term, the chart indicates that bitcoin could hit six figures at $626,383 by October 9, 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency will reach the “maximum bubble territory” then, marked in dark red.
Additionally, the chart indicates that the current crypto winter may have bottomed out. It is noteworthy that bitcoin's current price of about $19,500 is estimated to be in the “Main Sale” zone (marked in blue). Ahead of another bull run, the rainbow chart also shows that bitcoin’s “HODL” status will take effect at the end of the year when the asset trades at $86,151.
The color bars follow a purely logarithmic regression, which has no scientific basis. In addition, the bands have been adjusted to match past periods in the better way. However, the chart creators note that this is at least an interesting way to look at the potential future profitability of the main cryptocurrency.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: Market, Are You Crazy?

Throughout the first half of the week, EUR/USD moved sideways along the 0.9700 horizon as markets waited for the release of US inflation data. And it was on Thursday, October 14 that the Department of Labor Statistics of the country published fresh values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which exceeded the forecast values. In monthly terms, the September CPI reached 0.6% against the forecast of 0.5%, in annual terms - 6.6% against the forecast of 6.5% and the previous value of 6.3%.

The first reaction of the markets was quite expected. The DXY dollar index soared to 113.94 points (the highest value since September 28, when a 20-year high of 114.79 points was reached), the yield of 10-year treasuries updated a 14-year high, reaching 4.08%, and EUR/USD reached the level 0.9630. Risky asset quotes associated with the dollar by reverse correlation went down. The S&P500 index fell by 2.4% and updated its 2-year low. Dow Jones, Nasdaq and crypto assets behaved in a similar way.

But something extraordinary happened in less than one hour: all the markets, as if going crazy, turned 180 degrees all of a sudden. Moreover, for no apparent reason.

The dollar began to lose its positions rapidly: DXY fell to 112.46, and EUR/USD broke through 0.9800. On the contrary, the S&P500 was positive by the end of Thursday and grew by 2.6%. Analysts cite the strong oversold stock market as the main reason for this change in sentiment and the sharp increase in risk appetites. It is believed that stocks lose about 30% during recessions. At this stage, the S&P500 is down 27.5% during 2022. Therefore, some investors have decided that the bottom has already been reached or will be reached soon, and it is time to start buying. A large number of put options have recently been bought in the US market, on which profit-taking took place, and the freed fiat was used to purchase risky assets.

Despite the events of the past week, market opinion regarding the further increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve has not changed. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned that the US will face a "perfect storm" of problems: a combination of debt, political infighting, and conflict abroad. But at the same time, despite the threat of a recession, the Fed will have no other choice to beat inflation.

The market has no doubts that the key rate will be increased by 75 basis points (bp) at the next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) on November 2. The largest North American financial derivatives market, CME Group, estimates the probability of this at over 90%. Moreover, it is possible that the rate will also increase to 75 bp in December (or, alternatively, by 50 bp in December and another 50 bp in Q1 2023). The peak of the rise is predicted at the level of 4.93-5.00% per annum, and this rate may remain until 2024.

As for Europe, the ECB representative and head of the Slovak Central Bank, Peter Kazimir, recently said that “raising the rate by 75 bps in October is appropriate”. However, this had almost no impression on the market. Economists at Commerzbank still expect the European regulator to raise the rate to only 3.0% by March next year. Thus, it will still be far behind the USD rate.

In addition, the energy crisis and the problems associated with sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine will also continue to put pressure on the common European currency. According to analysts at Commerzbank, the euro will start to recover only when investors bet more and more on the end of the crisis next year. In the meantime, they write, “a decisive tightening of monetary policy and a remarkably strong US economy make the US dollar the favorite currency of international investors.”

Thus, EUR/USD in the short term is still aimed south. And according to the forecasts of DBS Bank strategists, if it breaks through the important support level just below 0.9600, it may fall into the range of 0.8270-0.9500, which was observed in 2000-2002.

Following the release of September US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the EUR/USD pair was trading in the 0.9750 zone at the time of writing the forecast on Friday evening, October 14. 55% of analysts support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, another 35% expect it to move north, and the remaining 10% vote for a sideways trend. Among the trend indicators on D1, 90% are red and 10% are green. The picture is quite different among the oscillators: only 40% of them advise selling the pair, 15% are in favor of buying, and 55% have taken a neutral position.

The immediate support for the EUR/USD is at 0.9700, followed by 0.9670, 0.9630, 0.9580 and finally the September 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

The upcoming week's calendar highlights Tuesday October 18, when the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the Eurozone will be known. And there will be data on manufacturing activity and the housing market in the US on Thursday, October 20.

GBP/USD: UK Changes Course

In general, the GBP/USD chart was similar to the EUR/USD chart last week, except for the volatility. The local minimum was fixed at the level of 1.0922, the maximum - 1.1380, thus the range of fluctuations for the five-day period amounted to more than 450 points.

The statistics on the UK economy released this week looked mixed. Friday, October 14, was the key day, when Prime Minister Liz Truss fired Treasury Secretary Quasi Kwarteng. Now, after this event, the markets are awaiting details about the country's upcoming mini budget. Former British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has been appointed as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Liz Truss has announced a dramatic change in fiscal policy. However, this has not helped the British currency much so far: it was in the 1.1200 area at the end of the working week.

As for the median forecast, here the majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, 25% have taken a neutral position, while the number of supporters of the strengthening of the pound is 0. Among the oscillators on D1, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of the reds. Among the trend indicators, only 15% are colored red, 40% are green, and the remaining 45% are neutral gray.

The nearest levels and support zones are 1.1100, 1.1055, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0925. This is followed by 1.0500-1.0740 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1300, 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1500, 1.1610, 1.1720, 1.1800 and 1.1960.

Regarding the release of UK macro statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, October 19, as in the Eurozone, and UK retail sales for September will be announced on Friday, October 21.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: How Much Will BTC Be Worth on October 9, 2024?



The crypto market was relatively quiet until Thursday October 13. The BTC/USD pair, despite the downward pressure, looked quite stable, holding positions around $19,000. However, it flew down after the values of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) became known, following the stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. However, it never reached the June 19 low of $17,940, and having found a local bottom at $18,155, it then went up sharply, following the stock indices. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 14, the pair is trading in the $19.375 zone.

According to Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe, bitcoin price volatility will increase in the second half of October. The US inflation data, along with the latest data on retail sales and labor market dynamics, will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market. The next important point will be early November, when the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%. Based on this, JP Morgan strategists predict a new collapse of the S&P500 index, by about another 20%. Thus, the unrealized loss of those who invested in the shares of the 500 largest US companies at the beginning of 2022 could exceed 44%. However, many crypto investors hope that, as in the case of the recent crisis in the UK, bitcoin will play the role of digital gold this time and will not collapse after other assets. It will become clear in the foreseeable future whether these hopes will come true.

If we look at the latest analysts' forecasts by color, the palette is as follows: short-term forecasts are dark black, medium-term forecasts are gray, and long-term forecasts are sky blue.

Among the dark blacks, this time, let's highlight the scenario of Zack Voell, who is a mining analyst at Braiins. He has recently shared a model that reflects BTC's price performance in previous bearish cycles. Zach Voell studied the behavior of quotes in all past periods between highs and lows, on the basis of which he predicted a fall in the BTC rate to $13,800.

The analyst emphasized that he studied the behavior of the bitcoin price in 2011, then in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018, as well as during the current cycle, which began in November 2021. According to him, the value of the cryptocurrency lost more than 80% of its peak values the last two times. If history repeats, the rate will fall to at least this mark and may even go lower. He noted among other things that the bearish cycle of 2011 led to a drop in the value of BTC by as much as 95%. However, this happened when the cryptocurrency was practically unknown to anyone and was not on the way to mass adoption.

Voell also noted that despite the negative sentiment, bitcoin was the most profitable asset in Q3 2022. Digital gold has shown extreme stability in the past months. (Apart from BTC, according to statistics published by NYDIG, only precious metals and fiat USD turned out to be profitable in Q3).

Now let's talk about what may happen in the last, Q4 2022. Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted a rise in the bitcoin price by the end of 2022. Digital gold and ethereum tend to outperform most major assets during economic downturns. Therefore, McGlone called the increase in interest rates by Central banks “a strong tailwind.” He noted that October has been the best month for bitcoin since 2014. At the same time, the analyst believes that ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm can help ETH and BTC gain a foothold above the $1,000 and $20,000 levels, respectively.

Such levels for ethereum and bitcoin will certainly not impress investors. Therefore, this forecast of the Bloomberg Intelligence strategist can be classified as neutral gray. Then move on to sky blue scenarios.

Paul Tudor Jones, a trader and founder of the Tudor Investment Hedge Fund, said in an interview with CNBC that he continues to hold a position in the first cryptocurrency. According to the influencer, the first and second most capitalized cryptocurrencies will be valuable “at some point” because of too much money.

That moment, according to Raoul Pal, could come when the Fed retreats from its plans to fight inflation by tightening monetary policy. This Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs chief executive said that the macroeconomic background is beginning to look attractive for investing in cryptocurrencies. Many investors are now in a state of extreme fear, fearing that the global financial system will soon collapse. And this could be a growth catalyst for risky assets like bitcoin and altcoins.

According to the businessman, investors are very negative and are playing it safe. Previously, the market had incredibly high amounts of investments, but the market does not work now, as sellers predominate over buyers. This situation may encourage the Fed to relax its monetary policy.

“There is currently no liquidity on the market, as only sellers are left there. I think this will cause huge problems in the future. Ultimately, businesses will demand more money to be issued and the situation on the market to be changed,” said Raul Pal. So once Central banks start printing money again, assets like bitcoin and altcoins will rise. “This is a sad state of affairs, but this is the real situation,” says the financier. “You will be able to see when the shift comes and use it to your advantage by investing in cryptocurrencies.”

A popular crypto analyst known as Dave the Wave accurately predicted the bitcoin crash in May 2021. He believes now that if bitcoin equals gold in the long term in market capitalization, this will be equal to an increase in its price by about 40 times. According to the expert, this global goal can be achieved within two decades.

The rainbow price chart of the Blockchain Center looks no less optimistic. (It differs somewhat from our forecast). It shows how past price statistics can help predict the future behavior of an asset. In the long term, the graph indicates that bitcoin could reach a six-figure value of $626,383 by October 9, 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency will reach the “maximum bubble territory” then, marked in dark red.

Additionally, the chart indicates that the current crypto winter may have bottomed out. It is noteworthy that bitcoin's current price is estimated to be in the “Main Sale” zone (marked in blue). Ahead of another bull run, the rainbow chart also shows that bitcoin’s “HODL” status will take effect at the end of the year when the asset trades at $86,151.

The color bars follow a purely logarithmic regression, which has no scientific basis. In addition, the bands have been adjusted to match past periods in the better way. However, the chart creators note that this is at least an interesting way to look at the potential future profitability of the main cryptocurrency.

At the time of writing, the total crypto market capitalization is $0.927 trillion ($0.946 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed 1 point in seven days from 23 to 24 and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- Most of the 564 crypto investors surveyed by MLIV Pulse think that bitcoin will continue to trade in the $17,600-25,000 price range until the end of 2022. Almost two-thirds (65%) of retail investors said that the regulation of the crypto industry was more attractive than a repulsive factor for buying digital assets. The figure was 56% among professionals.
Only a third of respondents admitted the possibility of flipping: the superiority of ethereum over bitcoin in terms of market capitalization in the next two years. After being asked to choose one word to describe the crypto industry, investors were almost evenly divided between opposite options: “Ponzi” and “future.”

- Katie Wood, the head of ARK Invest management company, shared her opinion on the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency. She predicted a rise to $4.5 trillion even when bitcoin was trading at $250. It was then that Wood asked Arthur Laffer, a well-known economist, and member of the US President Reagan's Advisory Board, to study the digital gold white paper. ARK Invest CEO was interested in the prospects of bitcoin as a unit of account, a means of preserving value and circulation. Laffer spoke positively about the first cryptocurrency. “I've been looking for this ever since we dropped the gold standard. Bitcoin is a rules-based monetary system,” he said. Laffer also compared the prospects for capitalization of digital gold with the size of the US monetary base.
Wood added that it was this conversation that prompted her to immediately invest more than $100,000 in bitcoin, which was 400 BTC at that time (about $8.0 million at the time of writing).

- The quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 next year, against the background of the approaching halving. This was stated by well-known trader Ton Weiss in an interview with Kitco. He also warned that the price of digital gold could fall to $14.000 before the bull market sets in.
According to Weiss, capital flows from Europe to the United States and the syndrome of lost profits can become the engine of growth. “They missed their chance to catch the low in 2018. This is another possibility. If bitcoin ever drops below $10,000, investors will immediately take advantage of this,” the trader explained.
He also noted the decentralization and resistance to censorship of the first cryptocurrency. According to Weiss, these characteristics will provide the asset with mass adoption. “We are seeing how governments, the Central Bank and ordinary banks freeze accounts. This year alone, we have seen how the West and the US confiscate funds from people because of their Russian passports,” he said.

- One of the events that could significantly push the price of BTC up is the halving, which is due to take place in 2024. This opinion is also shared by a well-known crypto trading specialist under the nickname PlanB. He provided an analysis of previous bitcoin price movements and made predictions for the future using a Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. His colleague was supported by another trader and analyst, Josh Rager, who also expects bitcoin to grow significantly after the halving in 2024. At the same time, in his opinion, growth should not be expected before this event.
As we know, the last bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, when the reward for each created block was halved to 6.25 BTC. This reward will again be halved to 3.125 BTC per block during the fourth halving, which is expected to take place in May 2024.

- The legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt has a slightly different opinion. He said that bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in about 32 months, but it would first fall to $13,000. The expert believes that the first cryptocurrency will find this bottom at the beginning of 2023 and will not show “impressive” performance over the next year and a half.
According to Brandt, the US Federal Reserve is not going to ease monetary policy. He assumes that the regulator will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at least twice more by the end of 2022 in order to combat inflation.
However, the analyst expects that the value of the first cryptocurrency will no longer depend on other markets at some point. “Bitcoin will eventually correlate with bitcoin,” Brandt explained. The expert also noted that the cryptocurrency will become the “main store of value” in the next 10 years.
Recall that Peter Brandt has been working in the financial markets for more than 40 years, he is the creator of the Factor Trading service, which provides expert reports and analysis of asset value charts. Brandt has repeatedly noted that bitcoin is one of the largest parts of his investment portfolio.

- According to an October survey conducted by the financial company Finder, the median forecast of analysts is that the price of BTC will reach $270,722 by 2030. They also think that the first cryptocurrency will be traded at $21,344 by the end of this year.

- His Majesty's former Treasury Chief, Rishi Sunak, became the new British Prime Minister on October 25. He was remembered for his benevolent attitude towards cryptocurrencies in his previous position. In his opinion, innovations can make payments cheaper and faster.
His department began developing regulation for stablecoins in 2020 and announced research on Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The future Prime Minister stated in April 2022 that he aimed to turn the UK into a "global hub for crypto-assets technologies." Sunak instructed the Royal Mint then to issue NFTs, and the Treasury announced plans to legalize stablecoins.
However, the agency ruled out the use of algorithmic stablecoins as payment mechanisms in May, amid the collapse of Terra. The Treasury has also considered additional measures to protect against “stable coin” disasters like UST.
Twitter users recalled that Sunak is easy to navigate popular NFT collections, and when taken a blitz survey, he chose both bitcoin and ethereum from the two leading cryptocurrencies.

- The bitcoin community is divided over whether BTC will rise or fall next year. There is reason to believe that BTC is likely to collapse sharply in the coming months but will then rise in middle to late 2023. Most analysts and technical indicators suggest that it could drop to $12,000-$16,000 in the coming months. This correlates with a volatile macro environment, stock prices, inflation, Fed data, and (at least according to Elon Musk) a possible recession that could last until 2024.
On the other hand, influencers, BTC maximalists and a number of other fanatical barkers claim that the price of the first cryptocurrency can soar to $80,000 and more. According to trader and analyst Kevin Swenson, we may see an 80-week bear market turn into a bull market around April. The deflationary nature of BTC, thanks to the halving, will contribute to this price increase.
Michael van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm Eight, has joined the cohort of analysts anticipating the rise of the first cryptocurrency. He believes that bitcoin has been consolidating around $20,000 for too long and should soon get out of the corridor to shake things up. “Bitcoin will break through all levels within two to three weeks. And I think it will be up. I think we'll get to $30,000."
The outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges also speaks in favor of a possible growth: this indicates that investors are withdrawing funds to cold wallets in anticipation of the growth of the first cryptocurrency.

- Other experts, on the contrary, believe that we will not see a surge either in the near future or in 2023. Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks has pointed out that there is a small chance that the coin could even crash to $3,500. “I think we will see a small bounce in the near future, then a wave down to $12,000-13,000, and then, I am afraid, we will move to $8,000-10,000, maybe even see a drop to $3,500,” he says. At the same time, Gareth Soloway warns that if BTC falls to $12,000 or below, it may not be profitable for miners to manage the ecosystem. This would mean that transactions are no longer being processed. And this, in turn, can not only damage the industry, but also destroy the bitcoin market.

- Frank Giustra, a billionaire who built his fortune on investments in the mining industry, believes that the US authorities will destroy cryptocurrencies sooner or later. He suggested that the US government plans to develop a jurisdiction for its own blockchain. “I think the US authorities really want to be ahead of the rest of the planet in terms of blockchain, not in bitcoin, but in a state-owned digital currency that they can fully control. Like all other countries, they don't need bitcoin competition. Therefore, I see BTC as a game against sovereign fiat money.” Giustra added that bitcoin has no chance of standing up to world governments.
The billionaire tried to convince crypto investors to invest in real gold. “If you invest in precious metals, the government will not be able to take them away from you when it destroys all assets not controlled by them in the digital world.”

- The correlation between the prices of bitcoin and gold over the past 40 days has reached a significant value of 0.5, which is a strong increase after it was almost zero in mid-August. At the same time, the volatility of bitcoin turned out to be less than that of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. Accordingly, the price of the coin began to fluctuate less following the change in these two main indicators of the world's largest capital market.
Bank of America, in a letter to investors, expressed the opinion that “the decrease in bitcoin's positive correlation with the S&P 500 and the rapidly growing relationship with gold indicate that investors may be considering bitcoins as a relatively “safe haven” in a situation where there remains macroeconomic uncertainty in the world, and the “bottom” of the market may eventually be fixed.”

- As the most frightening holiday of the year approaches, there is another factor to consider when investing during this period: the “Halloween effect”. This is a popular sign among traders, which suggests that bitcoin and the stock market tend to perform well from the end of October to the end of May.
According to Finbold, BTC's price has only increased year-on-year over the past three Halloweens. However, it would be too reckless currently to assume that a digital asset could show growth for the fourth year in a row. But even stranger things happen in the world. According to estimates by 28,488 members of the CoinMarketCap community, the average implied BTC price on Halloween, October 31, 2022, will be $21,248, which is 65.17% lower than on the same day last year. Bitcoin was trading at $61,300 on October 31, 2021, with a market capitalization of $1.156 trillion, up 344.39% from BTC’s Halloween 2020 price of $13,794.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: Is the Interest Rate Race Close to Its End?

EUR/USD grew until Thursday, October 27, and even rose above the landmark level of 1.0000, reaching 1.0092. The reason for this, most likely, was the hope of a number of investors that the ECB would raise the rate not by 0.75, but by 1.0 or even more basis points (bp) at its meeting. However, their dreams remained dreams. There happened exactly what most market participants expected: the European regulator raised the rate by 0.75 bp, from 1.25% to 2.0%. (Although this figure is the highest over the past 10 years).

The final statement of the Central Bank says that the ECB Governing Council has already made significant progress in abandoning the stimulating monetary policy (QE). There is not a single word in the text either that the interest rate will be raised regularly at the next meetings. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, also noted at a press conference that economic activity in the Eurozone is likely to slow down significantly in Q3 2022. Based on all this, market participants concluded that the ECB is counting on the recession in Europe to help it cope with inflation without a further sharp increase in rates. If the regulator acts as aggressively as the US Federal Reserve, such steps, along with rising energy prices, could simply plunge the European economy into the abyss.

Many analysts believe that the ECB will raise the rate not by 75 bp, but by only 50 bp at its next meeting on December 15. There is no January meeting in the calendar, and the rate will be increased by some "pathetic" 25 bp in February, reaching 2.75%. where it all will end.

Against this backdrop, EUR/USD went below the 1.0000 horizon once again. The growth of US GDP helped strengthen the dollar. With a forecast of +2.4%, this indicator increased by +2.6% q/q in Q3 2022, breaking a series of falls: -1.6% in Q1 and -0.6% in Q2.

On the one hand, this economic growth shows that it is able to withstand even greater monetary tightening by the Fed. On the other hand, it turned out that such an important component as the real estate market is actively shrinking. Investments here have fallen by more than 26%, and rates on 30-year mortgages have reached 7% per annum, which has sharply reduced demand for housing.

Of course, this is unlikely to stop the Fed from fighting inflation. But it may force it to act more cautiously. As for the next meeting of the regulator on November 02, the market is still confident that the rate will be increased by 0.75 bp, from 3.25% to 4.0%. However, regarding the Fed's next move in December, the federal funds futures market is inclined to a more moderate rise by 50 bps. But even if this forecast turns out to be correct, the difference between rates on the euro and the dollar will remain, which will support the US currency.

EUR/USD closed last week at 0.9964. 50% of analysts support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, another 20% expect a correction to the north, and the remaining 30% vote for a sideways trend. It should be noted here that when moving to the forecast by the end of the year, 80% of experts vote for the bearish scenario. Among the trend indicators on D1, only 40% are red, 60% are green. Among the oscillators, all 100% advise to buy the pair.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 0.9900, followed by 0.9765, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally the September 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. For the bulls, the first priority will be to break the 1.0000 barrier. Then they will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0100, 1.0250, 1.030 and 1.0370.

The most important event of the upcoming week will certainly be the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, November 02, and the subsequent press conference of the regulator's management. In addition, the economic calendar can mark Monday October 31, when the data on GDP and the consumer market (CPI) of the Eurozone, as well as on the volume of retail sales in Germany, will be released. The value of the ISM Business Activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector will become known the next day, on Tuesday, November 01, and that of the US services sector on Thursday, November 03. In addition, we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market on November 02 and 04, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) of the country.

GBP/USD: Stake Larger Than Life

In general, the dynamics of GBP/USD followed the dynamics of the EUR/USD last week. The five-day low was recorded at 1.1257, the high was 1.1645, and the finish was at 1.1615. The coming week, or rather its second half, is expected to be much more turbulent, since in addition to the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, a meeting of the Bank of England is also due on Thursday, November 03.

There was such an old Polish adventure series called Stake Larger Than Life. In our case, the decision of the British Central Bank on the interest rate will determine how the pound will continue to live. And the fact that it will face numerous “adventures” is for sure.

At the height of the fiscal policy fiasco, the market briefly predicted that the pound rate would reach 3.90% after the November meeting. However, investors' appetites have subsided considerably, and they would like it to rise from the current 2.25% to at least 3.0%, that is, by 75 bp. However, strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that the chances of a 50 bp rate hike are now higher, and this is a negative factor for the pound. Therefore, its further growth will be difficult. “The GBP/USD correction may continue to the 1.1750 area, but we doubt that this increase will last long,” ING says.

The opposite view is shared by their colleagues at Scotiabank. In their opinion, although the pound failed to break above 1.1650 on October 27, the pair will maintain a positive trend in the next few weeks. And the main support for it will be the level of 1.1400.

As for the median forecast, here the majority of analysts (50%) side with the bears, 15% have taken a neutral position, while the number of supporters of the strengthening of the pound is 35%. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, but a quarter of them are in the overbought zone. Among trend indicators, only 35% are red, 65% are green. The levels and zones of support for the British currency are 1.1550, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1100, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low at 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1645, 1.1720, 1.1830, 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2135 and 1.2200.

Of the events of the upcoming week, in addition to the mentioned meeting of the Bank of England, we can note the publication of the Business Activity Index (PMI) in the construction sector of the United Kingdom on Friday, November 04.

USD/JPY: The Mystery of the Pair's Collapse Is Revealed



As we predicted back in May, USD/JPY reached 115.00 in autumn, and it reached 151.94 on Friday, October 21, hitting a 32-year high this time. However, everything was clear in advance as for the growth of the pair. But what came as a shock was its subsequent massive collapse. The pair collapsed by more than 500 points within a few minutes: from 151.63 to 146.24. According to the Financial Times, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sold at least $30 billion at that moment, in an attempt to support the yen. The pair turned around and soared again after this intervention: apparently, $30 billion was not enough. Another intervention followed on Monday, October 24, causing the pair to fall to 145.48. And then, a bounce up again. Last week's low was fixed at 145.10, while the last chord sounded much higher at 147.40. It is curious that all these jumps in the Japanese currency occurred against the backdrop of recent statements by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that "sharp, one-sided movements of the yen are undesirable."

Such over-volatility in USD/JPY suggests that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan will have to work hard to stop demand for the dollar against the troubled yen. “The Japanese authorities are really in a quandary,” ING analysts comment. “We can easily understand their interest in not drawing the 150.00 line, given the market is very volatile, but by allowing the yen to break higher, they risk causing a sharp sell-off of the currency that Tokyo would like to contain in the first place.”

"Unless the BoJ moves to a less dovish stance, foreign exchange intervention remains the most viable option," ING adds. But, apparently, BoJ is not going to tighten its monetary policy. The regulator remained true to itself at its last meeting last Friday, October 28 and kept the interest rate at a negative, ultra-dove level of -0.1%. So now the pair's dynamics depends on whether the BoJ has enough money to intervene to withstand a rise in rates by the US Federal Reserve.

At the moment, half of the analysts believe that there will be enough money. And therefore, they vote for the downtrend of the pair. 30% have taken a neutral position and 20% are waiting for another victory for the dollar. The oscillators on D1 have a mixed picture: 50% are looking north, 30% are looking south, and 20% are gray neutral. Among the trend indicators, 85% are on the green side and 15% are on the red side. The nearest support level is 146.90, then 145.30, 143.75, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05 and 137.40. Resistance levels are 148.45, 149.45, 150.00, 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above 152.00. Next are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. The only interest is the publication of the report on the meeting of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday, November 02, in which market participants will try to catch at least hints of a possible change in the regulator's position. In addition, traders should keep in mind that the country has a day off on Thursday, November 03, the National Day of Culture. And of course, one should not forget about possible “surprises” in the form of BoJ interventions in support of the yen.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Just a Rise? Or a Rise Before a Fall?

Following the growth of US stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) last week, bitcoin and ethereum went up, bringing joy to investors. Against the background of the fact that BTC/USD has not been able to gain a foothold above the $20,400 mark since September 13, the bulls can consider what is happening to be their success. However, it should be noted that the pair has been migrating along the $20,000 Pivot Point in the medium-term $18,100-25,000 side corridor for 19 weeks, since mid-June. So, the rise to the last seven-day high of $21.015 can only be considered a local micro-success, but not a reversal of the bearish trend.

Intense tightening of the Fed's monetary policy has already put the US economy on the brink of a recession. One more step, and recession will become inevitable. Some experts believe that the economic downturn could force the US Central Bank to abandon quantitative tightening (QT), at least for a while, without curbing inflation to the end. Against this background, the correlation between the prices of bitcoin and gold over the past 40 days has reached a significant value of 0.5, which is a strong increase after this indicator was almost zero in mid-August. Bank of America opined that "the rapidly growing relationship with gold indicates that investors may view bitcoin as a relatively safe haven in a situation where there remains macroeconomic uncertainty in the world, and the market bottom may eventually be fixed".

The bitcoin community is divided over whether BTC will rise or fall next year. There is reason to believe that BTC is likely to collapse sharply in the coming months but will then rise in middle to late 2023. Most analysts and technical indicators suggest that bitcoin could drop to $12,000-$16,000 in the coming months. This correlates with a volatile macro environment, stock prices, inflation, Fed data, and (at least according to Elon Musk) a possible recession that could last until 2024.

For example, the well-known trader Ton Weiss believes that against the backdrop of the upcoming halving-2024, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 next year. But at the same time, he does not exclude the possibility of a fall in the price of digital gold to the level of $10,000-14,000 before the onset of the bull market. According to Weiss, capital flows from Europe to the United States and the syndrome of lost profits can become the engine of growth. “They missed their chance to catch the low in 2018. This is another possibility. If bitcoin ever drops below $10,000, investors will immediately take advantage of this,” the trader explained.

Many experts say that the upcoming halving could significantly push the BTC price up. This opinion is also shared by a well-known specialist aka PlanB, who predicts the price movement of the main cryptocurrency based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. He is supported by fellow trader and analyst Josh Rager, who also expects a significant increase in bitcoin, but only after halving in 2024. In his opinion, growth should not be expected before this event.

As you know, the last bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, when the reward for each created block was halved to 6.25 BTC. This reward will again be halved to 3.125 BTC per block during the fourth halving, which is expected to take place in May 2024.

The legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt is of the same opinion. He said that bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in about 32 months, but it would first fall to $13,000. The expert believes that the first cryptocurrency will find this bottom at the beginning of 2023 and will not show “impressive” performance over the next year and a half.

According to Brandt, the US Federal Reserve is not going to ease monetary policy. He assumes that the regulator will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at least twice more by the end of 2022 in order to combat inflation. However, the analyst expects that the value of the first cryptocurrency will no longer depend on other markets at some point. “Bitcoin will eventually correlate with bitcoin,” Brandt explained. The expert also noted that the cryptocurrency will become the “main store of value” in the next 10 years.

Recall that Peter Brandt has been working in the financial markets for more than 40 years, he is the creator of the Factor Trading service, which provides expert reports and analysis of asset value charts. Brandt has repeatedly noted that bitcoin is one of the largest parts of his investment portfolio.

Now more details about the forecast for the next 2 months. Most of the 564 crypto investors surveyed by MLIV Pulse think that bitcoin will continue to trade in the $17,600-25,000 price range. According to an October survey conducted by financial company Finder, the first cryptocurrency will be trading at $21,344 by the end of this year.

The forecast of Eight trading firm CEO Michael van de Poppe is a little more optimistic. He believes that bitcoin has been consolidating around $20,000 for too long and should soon get out of the corridor to shake things up. “Bitcoin will break through all levels within two to three weeks. And I think it will be up. I think we'll get to $30,000." This growth is evidenced by the outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges: investors withdraw funds to cold wallets in anticipation of the strengthening of the first cryptocurrency.

Other experts, on the contrary, believe that we will not see a surge either in the near future or in 2023. Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks has pointed out that there is a small chance that the coin could even crash to $3,500. “I think we will see a small bounce in the near future, then a wave down to $12,000-13,000, and then, I am afraid, we will move to $8,000-10,000, maybe even see a drop to $3,500,” he says. At the same time, Gareth Soloway warns that if BTC falls to $12,000 or below, it may not be profitable for miners to manage the ecosystem. This would mean that transactions are no longer being processed. And this, in turn, can not only damage the industry, but also destroy the bitcoin market.

According to billionaire Frank Giustra, the end of the bitcoin era will be actively promoted by the US authorities, who will destroy cryptocurrencies sooner or later. “I think the US authorities really want to be ahead of the rest of the planet in terms of blockchain, not in bitcoin, but in a state-owned digital currency that they can fully control. Like all other countries, they don't need bitcoin competition. Therefore, I see BTC as a game against sovereign fiat money,” Giustra said, adding that bitcoin has no chance of standing up to world governments.

Of course, such statements are alarming. But we wouldn't be us if we hadn't finished our review on an optimistic note. According to the mentioned survey conducted by the financial company Finder, the median forecast of analysts is that the price of BTC will reach $270,722 by 2030.

In the meantime, at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday October 28, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $20,600 zone, the total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.005 trillion ($0.913 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose 7 points in seven days from 23 to 30 and moved from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone. According to the creators of the Index, it is worth thinking about opening long positions at this point. Although, in our opinion, the situation is very shaky, and traders need to act as carefully and cautiously as possible.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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The NordFX brokerage company has received numerous professional awards for achievements and innovations in the field of crypto trading starting from 2017. The title of Best Cryptocurrency Broker 2019 according to the authoritative international online portal FxDailyinfo is among them. NordFX was again named the Best Crypto Broker of this year already, 2022, at the very end of October. This award is the result of a vote on the AllForexRating.com portal, which forms a single conglomerate together with FxDailyinfo and ForexAllnews.

The winners in the AllForexRating Awards nominations were determined by an open vote of the online portal visitors, which makes this award especially valuable, as it reflects the opinion of the professional community most objectively. And we are sincerely grateful to all those who have voted for NordFX, for such a high appreciation of our work.

The possibilities of margin trading in cryptocurrencies were especially noted during the voting. Thus, for example, traders only need $150 to open a trade with a volume of 1 bitcoin, only $15 for a transaction in 1 Ethereum, $0.02 for a trade of 1 Ripple and $0.001 for a trade of 1 Doge. Thus, even with limited funds (the minimum deposit is only $10 on the Fix account), a trader can use various trading strategies or form their own investment crypto portfolio.

Traders and investors also pointed out the benefits of the new Savings Account from NordFX, which represents a unique know-how developed by the company's specialists, based on DeFi technology. The world's most popular stablecoin, Tether (USDT), the rate of which is secured by real US dollars in a ratio of 1:1, is used as the account currency. DeFi benefits allow account holders not only receive passive income up to 30% per annum, but also increase their profits by trading independently in the financial markets. It is just enough to take an instant trade loan at only 3% secured by the funds placed on the Savings Account.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- October 31, 2022, marks 14 years since Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The white paper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world.
The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared two years later, and the public has never been able to find out who wrote the document that underpins the multibillion-dollar industry. It is unknown as well whether it was one person or a group of people.

- UN Secretary-General António Guterres has noted that new technologies have “unsurpassed potential to improve the lives of people” but are also used to finance terrorism. “Terrorists are abusing new technologies to spread disinformation, foment discord, recruit and radicalize, mobilize resources and carry out attacks,” he said.
The UN plans to involve states in regulating the industry, to combat abuse of digital assets. Few countries, however, have begun work on regulation, and even fewer have “successfully applied it” to curb illicit activity. At the same time, cash and hawala, an informal financial settlement system used mainly in the Middle East, remain the predominant methods of financing terrorism.

- According to the Coin ATM Radar center, after the failure in September (minus 459 devices), the number of bitcoin ATMs in the world increased in October by more than 200 units and reached 38,823.
Robocoin installed the world's first such ATM in a coffee shop in Vancouver (Canada) on October 29, 2013. 348 transactions worth more than $100,000 were made through the device during the first week. This operator no longer exists, and the focus of distribution has shifted to the United States: the country accounts for 88% of the total number of bitcoin ATMs. Canada retains the second line of the world ranking with a share of 6.6%. Spain came in third on October 22, 2022, with 215 bitcoin ATMs, or 0.6% of the total. Recall that analysts at Grand View Research predict that the bitcoin ATM market will reach $1.88 billion by 2028.

- Former Goldman Sachs CEO and macro investor Raoul Pal has allowed the digital asset market capitalization to rise to $300 trillion in the next 10-15 years. According to him, the capitalization of almost all financial markets ranges from $200 trillion to $300 trillion. Pal believes that cryptocurrencies will also reach this level in the future as part of the “fastest and most massive growth” in history.
The expert's forecast is based on the amount of activity around the digital asset industry and Web3. Pal also noted an influx of $60 billion in venture capital investments over the past 18 months. He is confident that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will soar immediately after the end of the macroeconomic turmoil.

- The author of popular comics and books, American cartoonist Zach Weinersmith said that the only meaningful argument he heard from cryptocurrency supporters is that they do not want centralized power over money.” According to Weinersmith, gold can be used in this paradigm. Vitalik Buterin joined the discussion of his tweet and gave three arguments in favor of cryptocurrencies as money: 1. Gold is incredibly inconvenient and difficult to use, especially when dealing with unreliable parties. 2. It does not support secure storage options such as multi-signature. 3. Today, gold is less common than digital assets.
“So, cryptocurrencies are the best choice,” concluded the ethereum co-founder.

- Blockchain security firm Peckshield shared some horrifying statistics on digital asset theft on Halloween night. As of October 31, 2022, $2.98 billion worth of digital assets have been stolen, according to published data, nearly double the $1.55 billion lost in all of 2021.
October has broken all records, fitting its new nickname "Haktober". During this month alone, the attackers stole assets worth a whopping $760 million (although $100 million was recovered). After October, the second largest amount of stolen funds was in March, during which just under $710 million was stolen. Most of the losses were related to the hacking of the Ronin bridge used in the Axie Infinity sidechain, as a result of which $625 million worth of crypto assets were stolen.

- BNY Mellon, America's oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors would increase investment in crypto, albeit under certain conditions, such as "custody and execution that would be available in recognized, reliable institutions."
The BNY Mellon report notes that "nearly all institutional investors (91%) are interested in investing in tokenized products." But at the same time, they are looking for ways to enter the cryptocurrency market safely, and not invest recklessly in the hope of high profits.

- Grayscale Investment has released the results of its survey. Experts planned to find out how ordinary Americans feel about the cryptocurrency industry. Only 52% of those surveyed agreed that cryptocurrencies are the financial future. And only 44% of respondents said they were considering investing in digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents (81%) agreed that cryptocurrencies need clear regulation rules.

- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicts that bitcoin will become a reliable asset over the next 5-10 years that can provide investors with security in difficult times. The billionaire believes that the market capitalization of BTC is not yet large enough for the first cryptocurrency to act as a serious hedge asset. However, according to the businessman, everything can change around 2030, when the crypto market will grow and “take a large share of the global economy.” Bitcoin can be then treated as digital gold, investments in which can protect during a crisis.
The head of Coinbase admitted that he has now overestimated the chances of bitcoin to act as insurance against inflation. “I thought that the situation in the economy could draw more attention to BTC, but it looks like it’s too early,” the billionaire said.
Cathie Wood, manager of ARK Invest, shares a similar opinion. In her opinion, the capitalization of bitcoin will grow to $4.5 trillion, and it can become more valuable than most fiat currencies, including the US dollar.

- The cryptocurrency market flagship continues to trade above the $20,000 key level. Kitco News analyst Jim Wyckoff noted that bulls are technically dominating bears. The specialist does not rule out that consolidation may form on the market in the near future before the quotes move into a phase of stable growth. Wyckoff has not ruled out either that bitcoin could experience increased volatility in the coming weeks.

- An analyst aka Plan B believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a new cycle. The expert predicts an uptrend for two reasons. First, thanks to the recent rise in the value of bitcoin, investors who collectively own more than 60% of the available coins have made profits. According to Plan B, this factor indicates the upcoming BTC price pump. Secondly, the RSI index speaks in favor of the increase in the value of bitcoin. The value of this technical indicator has recently dropped to its all-time low, that is, the market has fallen into an extreme oversold zone, so a reversal is inevitable.
Researchers at Glassnode agree with Plan B. Their latest report says that the bitcoin market is currently in an accumulation phase, leading up to a massive bull run. There is a trend at the moment, similar to what happened at the beginning of 2019 before the rapid increase in bitcoin's value more than threefold.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in October 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The absolute leader at the end of the month was a trader from Western Asia, account No. 1659XXX, whose profit amounted to 45,518 USD. This impressive result was achieved in trades with gold (XAU/USD), the British pound (GBP/USD) and with a fairly rare tool in the arsenal of traders: the NASDAQ 100 stock index (USTEC.C).

- The second step of the podium was taken by the representative of South Asia, account No. 1615XXX, with the result of 34,621 USD.Their profit was also received mainly through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

- The same gold (XAU/USD), British pound (GBP/USD) as well as euro (EUR/USD) allowed another trader from Western Asia, account No. 1652XXX, to earn 30,501 USD and enter the top three.

The passive investment services:

- The long dormant signal of the MasterForex-V Trading Academy MF989923 became active in CopyTrading this month. This signal is a real long-liver, and has brought subscribers a profit of 546% in almost 8 years of its existence. Another "veteran", KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K, continues to increase its pace, it has brought profit to 239% in 546 days with a maximum drawdown of about 45%. The second signal from the same provider, ­­KennyFXPro - The Cannon Ball, looks like this: a lifespan of 214 days, a profit of 73%, a drawdown of just under 13%.

Among startups, we note the auto 250 signal (47% profit/18% max drawdown/20 days of lifespan). Here, as usual, we recall that, in addition to a short lifespan, aggressive trading is a serious risk factor. Therefore, we urge you to exercise maximum caution when choosing signals for a subscription.

- In the PAMM service, the situation with the leaders remained the same over the past month. The same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO is on the first line. The capital on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 170% in 645 days. The TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account was also among the leaders, showing a 130% profit in 576 days. Both of these accounts have a very moderate maximum drawdown, about 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 10,261USD, was credited in October to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645ХXХ;
- next is a partner from Southeast Asia, account No. 1654XXX, who earned 5,202 USD during the month;
- and, finally, a partner from Southern Asia, account No.1660ХХХ, who received 3,932 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

***

Summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. NordFX has a Super Lottery for NordFX clients this year, where many cash prizes ranging from 250 USD to 10,000 USD will soon be drawn.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: Slower, Longer, Higher

Overall, last week passed, as predicted, without any majorsurprises. The main event was the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, November 2, at which it was unanimously decided to raise the key rate by 75 basis points (bp) to 4.00%. This is the highest level since 2008. Such a move was quite expected. Therefore, the subsequent press conference of the regulator's management was of greater interest to market participants. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the meeting that although inflation must be reduced "drastically", monetary policy parameters can be changed as needed. The hint was that the pace of rate hikes could slow down from December, but the final rate level would likely be higher than previously thought.

The market received this message from the head of the Federal Reserve in different ways. Some decided that the US Central Bank kept the opportunity for further tightening of its monetary policy. Some believed that we in for the next, fifth in a row, rate hike by 75 bp in December. And some, on the contrary, took Powell's words as a signal that the basic step will no longer be 75, but 50 bp. That is, the vector of fighting inflation will change direction from “raising rates faster” to “raising rates more slowly, but longer.” Although, in this case, this is just a change of route, and the ultimate goal in both cases is the same.

Moreover, the market decided that the keywords here are not only “slower” and “longer”, but “higher” as well. Back in late October, the futures market predicted that the highest rate would reach 4.85% in March 2023. Now the peak of expectations has shifted to June, having risen to 5.1%. And the median rate forecast for the end of next year rose from 4.46% to 4.8%.

Many analysts believe that a slowdown in the Fed's monetary tightening (QT) will allow rival currencies to counter the oncoming dollar more effectively. Now the central banks of other countries are catching up, not having time to raise their rates at the same pace as in the US. If the Fed moves more slowly, they will be able, if not to overtake their American counterpart, at least to close the gap or catch up with it.

Following the FOMC meeting, the DXY Dollar Index moved up, hitting 113.00. The US currency strengthened against all G10 currencies, except for the Japanese yen. Then a reversal followed, and before the release of the data on unemployment in the US on Friday, November 04, it fell to 112.35, and EUR/USD consolidated around 0.9800.

Labor market data showed that non-farm payrolls in the US (NFP) stood at 261K in October, up from the 200K forecast but below September's 361K. The unemployment rate in the country rose from 3.5% to 3.7% over the month, while the forecast was 3.6%. The market took this as a negative signal for the dollar, DXY fell to 110.80, and EUR/USD went up and ended the week at 0.9958.

Overwhelming majority of analysts, 90%, support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, and only 10% expect a correction to the north. Among the oscillators on D1, 40% are green, the same number are red, and 20% are neutral. Among the trend indicators, the advantage is on the side of the green ones. 65% advise buying the pair and 35% selling.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 0.9865-0.9885, followed by 0.9825, 0.9765, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. For the bulls, the first priority will be to break the 1.0000 barrier. Then they will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0100, 1.0250, 1.030 and 1.0370.

Of the notable events of the upcoming week, first of all, we should note the data on retail sales in the Eurozone, which will be published on Tuesday November 08. There will be data on the consumer market (CPI) and the US labor market on Thursday, November 10. And on Friday, November 11, we will find out the value of the German CPI and the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

GBP/USD: BoE Failed to Help the Pound

If a slowdown in US QT is going to help certain currencies, the pound doesn't seem to be one of them. The Bank of England (BoE), as well as the Fed, raised the key rate by 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday, November 03, from 2.25% to 3.00%. This move was the strongest one-time rate hike since the late 1980s. However, this did not help the British currency, and it continued to fall, fixing the weekly low at around 1.1144.

It would seem that the new Prime Minister has been elected, tax cuts have been abandoned, and the rate has been raised. What else do investors need? First of all, they need confidence that the rate will continue to grow at the same pace. But there is no such certainty.

Following Jerome Powell, BoE chief Andrew Bailey hinted that the pace of rate hikes could be slowed down in the future. That is, the dollar will remain in the lead in this parameter. Although, according to Mr. Bailey, a repeat of the 1970s crisis is unlikely, the threat of a prolonged recession forces the regulator to act very carefully. It is important not to strangle the economy in the rush to defeat inflation and not to bring down the labor market. According to the forecasts of the Bank's economists, the country's GDP will decrease by about 0.75% in the second half of this year. At the same time, the decline will last until mid-2024.

Investors were also disappointed by the Retail Price Index published last week by the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Thus, the average prices in stores in October, with a forecast of 5.5%, in reality grew by 6.6%. Most of all, prices for food products rose, by 11.6%, and the “food basket” rose by 9.4%. According to the BRC, the reasons for the next jump in inflation are still the same as before: the energy supply crisis caused by anti-Russian sanctions and the lack of skilled labor, in the struggle for which employers are forced to constantly raise wages.

In such a difficult environment, the Bank of England will most likely not be able to stick to a certain line and will toss between tightening (QT) and easing (QE) its monetary policy, trying to find a balance. However, there is no guarantee that it will be able to do this, and such throws will cause increased volatility in the British currency quotes.

Against the backdrop of weak data from the US labor market, GBP/USD corrected to the north at the very end of last week and set the last chord at 1.1373. However, strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that it may soon retest the 1.1000 level. At the same time, when moving to a long-term forecast, one can hope for some positive things. For example, economists at the Australian bank Westpac predict that the pound will trade at 1.2000 by the end of 2023, and it will reach 1.2700 by the end of 2024.

As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, the advantage of bears over bulls is insignificant here: 55% to 45%. Among the D1 oscillators, 25% are on the green side, 40% are on the red side, and 35% are comfortably settled in the neutral gray zone. Among trend indicators, 65% are red, 35% are green. The levels and zones of support for the British currency are 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low at 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1435, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600-1.1625 1.1645, 1.1720, 1.1830, 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2135 and 1.2200.

Of the events of the upcoming week, attention is drawn to the data on the GDP of the United Kingdom, which will be published on Friday November 11. The forecast looks disappointing and foreshadows a fall in Q3 2022. by -0.1% (+0.2% in Q2).

USD/JPY: Intervention from BoJ: Yes or No

FX interventions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at the end of October helped stabilize the yen, and USD/JPY ended the five-day period at 146.64, in the middle of the 145.30-148.85 channel. At the same time, the country's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, said on Friday, November 04 that the government has no intention of directing the currency to certain levels through interventions. And that the exchange rate should move steadily, reflecting fundamental indicators, and monetary policy is up to BoJ.

Such a statement may put downward pressure on the Japanese currency, as there may not be new interventions, and the Bank of Japan is not going to leave the ultra-dove rate and will keep the rate at the negative level of -0.1%.

Recall that USD/JPY reached the height of 151.94 on October 21, having renewed its 32-year high. But then, within just a few minutes, it collapsed by more than 500 points, from 151.63 to 146.24. According to the Financial Times, at that moment, the Bank of Japan sold at least $30 billion in an attempt to support the yen. After this intervention, the pair turned around and soared again: apparently, $30 billion was not enough. And another intervention followed on Monday, October 24, causing the pair to fall to 145.48. The last chord sounded at 147.40 on October 28. A week later, on November 4, the pair finished less than 100 points from this zone, at 146.64.

65% of analysts do not exclude that USD/JPY will try to test the 150.00 level again, and if successful, to rise above 152.00. 25% believe that the Japanese Central Bank will decide on one or more interventions, and therefore vote for the pair's downtrend. 10% expect further movement in the side channel. The oscillators on D1 have a mixed picture: 20% are looking north, 40% are looking south, and 40% are gray neutral. Among trend indicators, the ratio of green and red is 50% to 50%.

The nearest support level is 146.40, then 145.30, 143.75, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05 and 137.40. Resistance levels are 146.85, 147.50, 147.90-148.00, 148.45-148.85, 149.45, 150.00, 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC/ETH – Who Wins?



Let's start with the birthday. Monday, October 31, 2022 marks the 14th anniversary of the birth of the flagship cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper on this day in 2008. The white paper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared two years later, and the public has never been able to find out who wrote the document that underpins the huge industry. It is unknown as well whether it was one person or a group of people.

Bitcoin has lived a very turbulent life during these 14 years. It rose and fell, then got back on its feet and fell again. It climbed onto the crest of the wave and fell into the abyss. Starting from scratch, it came close to $70,000 on November 07, 2021. And now it is trading in the $20,000 zone, having fallen in price by 70% in a year.

Of course, it is important to know what happened before. But we are much more concerned about what the future holds for us. And here the forecasts of experts are volatile as well as the quotes of bitcoin itself are volatile. Some predict the inevitable death of the crypto market for the umpteenth time, while others expect a take off to unprecedented heights. For example, ARK Invest fund manager Cathie Wood believes that the capitalization of bitcoin will grow to $4.5 trillion (currently about $0.39 billion), and it will be able to become more valuable than most fiat currencies, including the US dollar.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong shares this opinion, predicting that bitcoin will become a reliable asset over the next 5-10 years that can provide investors with security in difficult times. The billionaire believes that the market capitalization of BTC is not yet large enough for the first cryptocurrency to act as a serious hedge asset. However, according to the businessman, everything can change around 2030, when the crypto market will grow and “take a large share of the global economy.” Bitcoin can be then treated as digital gold, investments in which can protect during a crisis.

Former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor Raoul Pal is also looking ahead, allowing the digital asset market capitalization to rise to $300 trillion in the next 10-15 years. According to him, the capitalization of almost all financial markets ranges from $200 trillion to $300 trillion. Pal believes that cryptocurrencies will also reach this level in the future as part of the “fastest and most massive growth” in history. He is confident that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will soar immediately after the end of the macroeconomic turmoil.

After the Fed's decision to raise interest rates again, risky assets sank down. However, poor data from the US labor market came to their aid. As a result, at the time of writing the forecast, on the evening of Friday, November 04, BTC/USD, together with the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices, turned north and is trading at $21,180, trying to gain a foothold above $21,000. However, it is not at all certain that it will succeed. And if the main risky assets start to fall again, the main cryptocurrencies may follow them.

Kitco News analyst Jim Wyckoff believes that the crypto market's flagship will succeed. In his opinion, in technical terms, the bulls now dominate the bears. The specialist does not rule out that consolidation may form on the market in the near future before the quotes move into a phase of stable growth. Wyckoff has not ruled out either that bitcoin could experience increased volatility in the coming weeks.

A well-known analyst aka Plan B also believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a new upward cycle. The expert predicts the growth of the coin for two reasons. First, thanks to the recent rise in the value of bitcoin, investors who collectively own more than 60% of the available coins have made profits. According to Plan B, this factor indicates the upcoming BTC price pump. Secondly, the RSI index speaks in favor of the increase in the value of bitcoin. The value of this technical indicator has recently dropped to its all-time low, that is, the market has fallen into an extreme oversold zone, so a reversal is inevitable.

Researchers at Glassnode agree with Plan B. Their latest report says that the bitcoin market is currently in an accumulation phase, leading up to a massive bull run. There is a trend At the moment, similar to what happened at the beginning of 2019 before the rapid increase in bitcoin's value more than threefold.

However, for the crypto market to go up, institutional investors must move from sell-off or hibernation to accumulation. The mood of the general public (the so-called shrimps) is of course important, but the mood of the whales is much more important.

BNY Mellon, America's oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors would increase investment in crypto, albeit under certain conditions, such as "custody and execution that would be available in recognized, reliable institutions." The BNY Mellon report notes that "nearly all institutional investors (91%) are interested in investing in tokenized products." But at the same time, they are looking for ways to enter the cryptocurrency market safely, and not invest recklessly in the hope of high profits.

As for ordinary people, we can cite the results of another survey conducted by Grayscale Investment. Only 52% of ordinary Americans surveyed agreed that cryptocurrencies are the financial future. And only 44% of respondents said they were considering investing in digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents (81%) agreed that cryptocurrencies need clear regulation rules.

The question of whether the regulation of the crypto market is good or bad is still open. For example, many experts consider the threat of increased attention to Ethereum from the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) as negative factors.

It has been a month and a half since the leading altcoin moved from the PoW algorithm to PoS, after which the responsibility for building blocks has passed from miners to validators. The developers consider the main advantage of this change in the algorithm to be the reduction in network energy consumption from peak 112 TWh/year to 0.01 TWh/year. With regard to ETH, this practically nullified all the claims of environmentalists related to environmental pollution by miners. However, as a result of this step, the coin is increasingly moving away from what Satoshi Nakamoto introduced to the concept of cryptocurrency: the network has become more centralized and the SEC's desire to deprive ethereum of its cryptocurrency status has increased, replacing it with the status of a security and subjecting it to stricter regulation. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler hinted at this on the day of the transition to PoS.

At the same time, it would be naive to think that only ethereum will be in the clutches of financial regulators. Certainly, bitcoin will also be subject to sanctions. So both cryptocurrencies are on an equal footing in this regard. But in terms of network development and its prospects, ethereum has clearly overtaken its older colleague in the past few months. This is clearly seen on the chart of BTC/ETH. Since mid-June, it fell from a high of 20.3 to 13.0 and returned to the values of the beginning of the year.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday November 04, BTC/USD is trading in the $21,180 area, ETH/USD - $1,650. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.055 trillion ($1.005 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not changed in seven days and is in the Fear zone, at the level of 30 points. According to the index developers, one can think about opening long positions at such a moment. Although, in our opinion, the situation is very shaky, and traders need to act as carefully and cautiously as possible.


NordFX Analytical Group


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CryptoNews of the Week



- The bankruptcy of the FTX exchange collapsed the crypto market. After it became known about the liquidity crisis of Alameda Research, a crypto trading company owned by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao published a message about selling FTT tokens. The relationship between Binance and FTX is a complex and long story, starting with Binance receiving $2.1 billion for withdrawing from FTX investments.
Recall that FTT is a token created by the FTX team, and Chang Peng Zhao’s actions immediately led to a rapid drop in its value. FTX users began to massively try to withdraw their savings. During the day, all BTC (about 20,000 units) were withdrawn from the exchange, and the exchange's balance is currently negative. In addition to FTT, the price of Sol and other tokens of the Solana project, which is linked to both FTX and Alameda, fell sharply as well. Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected by the decline.
Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao announced on Tuesday, November 08 that his exchange is going to buy FTX, which is facing a liquidity crisis. However, this is currently just an intention that is not binding.
Against the background of all these events, bitcoin fell significantly in price, falling by 14.2% on November 8: from $20,701 to $17,756. Ethereum “shrunk” by 28%, it fell from $1,577 to $1,135. The total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1.040 trillion to $0.853 trillion. As experts explained, “investors don't like to see any disruptions in any risky asset.”

- Nigerian presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo said that the introduction of the latest technology will help reduce unemployment in the country and promised to use blockchain and digital currencies to create 30 million jobs. His future administration intends to join forces with 2,000 local cryptocurrency companies to do this.
Residents of another country, Lebanon, whose national currency has fallen by 96% against the US dollar, see salvation in cryptocurrencies as well. Inflation has hit triple digits since August 2019, and the minimum wage has been cut from $450 to $17, according to CNBC. As a result, mining has replaced full-time jobs for some of the country's citizens.

- The total volume of lost bitcoins, as well as digital gold in the wallets of long-term crypto investors, has reached a five-year high. This means that the active market supply of cryptocurrency is decreasing, promising optimistic prospects for prices, provided that demand increases or remains constant.
Cumberland, the cryptocurrency arm of venture capital firm DRW, also believes that a “promising uptrend” is forming in the volatile digital asset market. “The dollar's seemingly inexorable rally ended up killing sentiment in all major risk asset classes earlier this year,” the firm said. “This rally seems to have peaked, probably as a result of expectations that the Fed will change course by mid-2023.” Another tailwind for digital assets, according to Cumberland, is the easing of geopolitical turmoil, namely the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the resolution of problems in supply chains.

- Many on-chain metrics, including Pewell's multiplier, RHODL Ratio, and Reserve Risk, signal that bitcoin is deeply oversold and is likely to reach the bottom of the bearish market. This is stated in October analytical report by ForkLog. At the same time, some indicators point to the risk of a new wave of redistribution and price consolidation in the range of $16,500-21,100.

- Having analyzed bitcoin’s previous price action, including its upper highs and lower lows since November 2021, crypto analyst Moustache concluded that the cryptocurrency has displayed a “bullish megaphone pattern.” In his opinion, the expanding model, which looks like a megaphone or an inverted symmetric triangle, indicates that bitcoin could reach $80,000 around the summer of 2023.
As for the shorter-term outlook, some analysts believe that bitcoin could regain a critical support level by the end of 2022 and possibly even regain its $25,000 high.

- Speaking at Web Summit 2022, billionaire Tim Draper predicted that the price of the first cryptocurrency would rise to $250,000 by mid-2023. However, this prediction is not new at all. Back in 2018, Draper predicted bitcoin at $250,000 by 2022, moved the forecast to early 2023 in the summer of 2021, and extended it now for another six months.
Draper is confident that women will be the main driver of the next bull market, as they control about 80% of retail spending. “You can’t buy food, clothing, and housing with bitcoin just yet, but once you can, there will be no reason to hold on to fiat currency,” the billionaire added.
He also called digital gold an insurance against mismanagement and noted that cryptocurrencies prevent the government from controlling the population. “You saw speculators get out of bitcoin. Only hodlers remain, they're into it. They say it creates a freer and more trusting world. [Bitcoin] is an honest currency, not tied to banks and governments. It is decentralized,” Tim Draper explained.

- Mastercard Chief product officer Michael Miebach believes that it will take longer than expected for cryptocurrency to become mainstream. In his opinion, this asset class will become much more attractive to people as soon as the supervisory authorities introduce the appropriate rules. Many people want but do not know how to enter the crypto industry and how to get the maximum protection for their assets.
Like Tim Draper, Miebach sees a future world where the majority of consumers around the world use bitcoin in their daily transactions and settlements. However, he believes that this will not happen in the coming months: “I think there is a long way to go before cryptocurrency becomes mainstream.”

- The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has determined that cryptocurrency fraud falls into three categories. The first relates to fraud, where the victim believes they are investing in a legitimate asset. However, the crypto app, exchange, or website turns out to be fake. The second category of scams involves fake crypto tokens used to facilitate money laundering activities. The third type of fraud involves the use of cryptocurrencies to make fraudulent payments.
ASIC says the top signs of a crypto scam include “getting an offer out of the blue,” “fake celebrity ads,” and asking a “romantic partner you only know online” to send money in crypto.
Other red flags include asking to pay for financial services in crypto, asking to pay more money to access funds, withholding investment profits "for tax purposes" or offering "free money" or "guaranteed" investment income.


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Finance Derivative magazine announced the Awards 2022. The overall winners for Sustainable Banks, Internet, Retail, SME, Innovative Banks and Forex Broker and Asset Management Company were announced. NordFX brokerage company is among the winners.

This year, nearly 500 individual companies & banks from around the world entered the competition. The Awards judging panel was comprised of representatives from global leaders in consulting, technology, and outsourcing solutions. Based on the judge’s panel evaluations, Finance Derivative’s Editor made the final selections.

“We would like to congratulate you and offer special recognition and appreciation for your outstanding performance and dedication to excellence, honoring your outstanding performance", the editorial letter reads. “We are delighted to announce that NordFX is the Winner for the Category Most Reliable Forex Broker Asia 2022”.

Finance Derivative is a global finance and business analysis magazine, published by FM. Publishing, Netherlands. Being one of prime print and online magazines providing broad coverage and analysis of the Finance industry, International Business and the global economy empowering the businesses and Corporate Companies around the world. The leadership articles are read by industry professionals at all levels of banking, financial services, payment solutions and insurance as well as technology and consulting executives.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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EUR/USD: Is the Dollar's Growth Over?



Has the dollar rally come to an end? The answer to this question sounds more and more affirmative day by day. The reason for the weakening of the US currency lies in the interest rate of the Fed. This, in turn, depends on the state of the labor market and inflation in the US, which determine the regulator's monetary policy.

Recent data have shown that the labor market is doing well at least. The number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) was 261K in October, which is higher than the forecast of 200K. Although the number of initial jobless claims increased, the growth was insignificant and, with the forecast of 220K, it actually amounted to 225K (218K a month ago).

As for inflation, the data published on Thursday, November 10, turned out to be much better than both previous values and forecasts. Core consumer inflation (CPI) increased by 0.3% in October, which is lower than both the forecast of 0.5% and the previous September value of 0.6%. The annual growth rate of core inflation slowed down to 6.3% (against the forecast of 6.5%, and 6.6% a month ago).

This rate of change in CPI is the slowest in the last 9 months and suggests that a series of sharp interest rate increases have finally had the desired effect. Market participants have immediately decided that the Fed is now likely to slow down the pace of interest rate increases. As a result, the DXY Dollar Index went into a steep peak, losing 2.1%, which was a record drop since December 2015.

The probability that the US Federal Reserve will increase the rate by 75 basis points (bp) at the next December meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is now close to zero. The futures market expects it to rise by only 50 bp. The maximum value of the rate in 2023 is now predicted at 4.9%, and it can be reached in May (a forecast a week ago predicted a peak of 5.14% in June).

All this does not exclude a new wave of dollar strengthening in the coming months of course. But much will depend on the geopolitical situation and the actions of other regulators. Many analysts believe that a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed (QT) will allow rival currencies to counter the dollar more effectively. The Central Banks of other countries are currently playing the role of catching up, not having time to raise their rates at the same pace as in the United States. If the Fed moves more slowly (and at some point, slows down altogether), they will be able, if not to overtake their American counterpart, at least to close the gap or catch up with it.

Here we can cite the Eurozone as an example. According to preliminary Eurostat data for October, inflation here reached a record 10.7%. And this despite the fact that the target level of the ECB is only 2.0%. So, as stated by the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, the regulator has no choice but to continue to raise rates, even despite the slowdown in economic growth.

The change in market sentiment resulted in a northward reversal of the EUR/USD pair. It was trading in the 0.9750 zone just a week ago, on November 04, and it fixed a local maximum at the height of 1.0363 on Friday, November 11. The last chord of the five-day period sounded almost nearby, at the level of 1.0357.

Most analysts expect the pair to return to the south in the near future, 60%, and only 10% expect further movement to the north. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while a third of them are in the overbought zone. Among trend indicators, the green ones also have an advantage: 85% advise buying the pair and 15% advise selling. The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 1.0315, followed by the levels and zones at 1.0254, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580, and finally the September 28 low of 0.95. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0375, 1.0470, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

Highlights of the upcoming week include the release of preliminary Eurozone GDP data on Tuesday November 15. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US will be announced on the same day. Data on retail sales in the US will arrive on Wednesday, October 16, and the market will be waiting for the publication of such an important inflation indicator as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone on Thursday, October 17. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak on November 16 and 18.

GBP/USD: UK Economy Plunged into Recession

Recall that the Bank of England (BoE), raised the key rate by 0.75%, from 2.25% to 3.00%, at its meeting on November 3, as well as the Fed. This move was the strongest one-time rate hike since the late 1980s. At the same time, the head of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, said on Friday November 11 that "more interest rate hikes are likely in the coming months" and that "efforts to curb inflation are likely to take from 18 months to two years." Silvana Tenreiro, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the British Central Bank, announced approximately the same dates. According to her, monetary policy will have to be loosened, possibly in 2024.

However, it is not yet clear when and how much the BoE will raise the pound rate. The United Kingdom's GDP data released last week, although below the forecast of -0.5%, still moved into the negative zone, showing a drop in the economy in Q3 by -0.2%. This was the first fall in 6 quarters, and it looks like it started the country's plunge into a long recession, which, if quantitative tightening (QT) continues, according to the Bank of England, could last about 2 years.

Economists at Bank of America Global Research analyzed how energy prices and the pace of Central bank policy normalization will affect G10 currencies. As a result, they concluded that the dynamics of the balance of payments will be a deterrent for currencies such as the euro, the New Zealand dollar and the British pound in 2023.

In the meantime, against the backdrop of data on slowing inflation in the US, GBP/USD, as well as EUR/USD, went up, adding almost 555 points over the week and reaching the weekly high at 1.1854. The final point of the trading session was set at 1.1843. And, according to the strategists at the American investment bank Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), the pound may soon test the August 26 high at 1.1900.

As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, here the bulls have received 25% of the vote, the bears 35%, and the remaining 40% of experts prefer to remain neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, of which 25% signal that the pair is overbought. Among trend indicators, the situation is exactly the same as in the case of EUR/USD: 85% to 15% in favor of the greens. Levels and zones of support for the British currency: 1.1800-1.1830, 1.1700-1.1715, 1.1645, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2135, 1.2210, 1.2290-1.2330, 1.2425 and 1.2575-1.2610.

Of the events of the upcoming week, data on unemployment and wages in the UK, which will be released on Tuesday 15 November attract attention. The value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known the next day, on Wednesday, November 16, and the UK Inflation Report will also be heard. And data on retail sales in the United Kingdom will be published at the very end of the working week, on Friday, November 18.

USD/JPY: The Yen's Strength Is the Weak Dollar

it is evident that the fall of the dollar has not bypassed USD/JPY which, as a result, returned to the values of late August - early September 2022. The low of the week was recorded on Friday, November 11 at 138.46, and the finish was at 138.65. It is clear that the reason for such dynamics was not the strengthening of the yen and not the currency interventions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), but the general weakening of the dollar.

Recall that after USD/JPY reached 151.94 on October 21, hitting a 32-year high, the BoJ sold at least $30bn to support its national currency. And then it continued to intervene.

Finance Minister Shinichi Suzuki said on November 4 that the government has no intention to send the currency to certain levels through intervention. And that the exchange rate should move steadily, reflecting fundamental indicators. But the dollar has now retreated by almost 800 points in just a few days without any financial costs from the Bank of Japan, without any fundamental changes in the Japanese economy. And this happened solely because of expectations that the Fed could reduce the rate of interest rate hikes.

What if it doesn't reduce it? Will the Japanese Central Bank decide on one or more interventions? And will it have enough money for this? The second tool for supporting the yen, the interest rate, can probably be forgotten, since the Bank of Japan is not going to depart from the ultra-dove exchange rate and will keep it at a negative level -0.1%.

The fact that the dollar will soon try to win back at least part of the losses and USD/JPY will turn to the north is expected by 65% of analysts. The remaining 35% vote for the continuation of the downtrend. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 80% are looking south, a third of them are in the oversold zone, 20% have turned their eyes to the north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of green and red is 15% to 85% in favor of the latter. The nearest strong support level is located in the zone 138.45, followed by the levels 137.50, 135.55, 134.55 and the zone 131.35-131.75. Levels and resistance zones: 139.05, 140.20, 143.75, 145.25, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

As for the release of macro statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, we can mark Tuesday, November 15 next week, when the data on the country's GDP for Q3 2022 will become known. According to forecasts, GDP will decrease from 0.9% to 0.3%. And if the forecast comes true, it will become another argument in favor of keeping the interest rate by the Bank of Japan at the same negative level.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Two Events That Made the Week

The past week was marked by two events. The first plunged investors into incredible melancholy, the second gave hope that not everything is so bad. So, one at a time.

Event No. 1 was the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange. After it became known about the liquidity crisis of Alameda Research, a crypto trading company owned by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao published a message about selling FTT tokens. Recall that FTT is a token created by the FTX team, and Chang Peng Zhao’s actions immediately led to a rapid drop in its value. FTX users began to massively try to withdraw their savings. About a billion dollars in cryptocurrency and stablecoins were withdrawn from the exchange, and its balance became negative. In addition to FTT, the price of Sol and other tokens of the Solana project, which is linked to both FTX and Alameda, fell sharply as well.

Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected by the decline. Investors do not like to see any failure in any risky asset, and they fear the domino effect when the collapse of one company threatens the existence of others.

Encouraging information came from the head of Binance: Chang Peng Zhao announced on November 08 that his exchange was going to buy the bankrupt FTX. (According to some estimates, the "hole" in its budget is about $8 billion). However, it turned out later that the deal would not take place. Quotes fell further down. As a result, bitcoin sank in price seriously, falling by almost 25% by November 10: from $20,701 to $15,583. Ethereum "shrunk" by 32%, from $1,577 to $1,072. The total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1.040 trillion to $0.792 trillion.

There is no doubt that the collapse of FTX will increase the regulatory pressure on the entire industry. In the previous review, we started to discuss the question of whether the regulation of the crypto market is a good thing or a bad thing. It should be noted that the majority of institutions vote for regulation. For example, BNY Mellon, America's oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors can increase their investment in cryptocurrency, but at the same time they are looking for ways to safely enter the crypto market, and not mindlessly invest money in the hope of high profits.

Approximately the same has recently been stated by Mastercard Chief Product Officer Michael Miebach. In his opinion, this asset class will become much more attractive to people as soon as the supervisory authorities introduce the appropriate rules. Many people want but do not know how to enter the crypto industry and how to get the maximum protection for their assets.

As for the event No. 2 mentioned at the beginning of the review, it was the publication of inflation data in the US on Thursday, November 10. As it turned out, it is declining, from which the market concluded that the Fed may reduce the pace of raising interest rates. The DXY dollar index went down immediately, while risky assets went up. Correlation between cryptocurrencies and stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, lost at the time of the FTX crash, has almost (but not completely) recovered, and the quotes of BTC, ETH and other digital assets also began to grow.

At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, November 11, BTC/USD is trading in the $17,030 area, ETH/USD is $1,280. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.860 trillion ($1.055 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell back into the Extreme Fear zone to 21 points in seven days.

Cumberland, the crypto arm of venture capital firm DRW, believes a "promising uptrend" is emerging in the volatile digital asset market. “The dollar's seemingly inexorable rally ended up killing sentiment in all major risk asset classes earlier this year,” the firm said. “This rally seems to have peaked, probably as a result of expectations that the Fed will change course by mid-2023.”

Having analyzed bitcoin’s previous price action, including its upper highs and lower lows since November 2021, crypto analyst Moustache concluded that the cryptocurrency has displayed a “bullish megaphone pattern.” In his opinion, the expanding model, which looks like a megaphone or an inverted symmetric triangle, indicates that bitcoin could reach $80,000 around the summer of 2023.

As for the shorter-term outlook, some analysts believe that bitcoin could regain a critical support level by the end of 2022 and possibly even regain its $25,000 high.

The total volume of lost bitcoins, as well as digital gold in the wallets of long-term crypto investors, has reached a five-year high. This means that the active market supply of cryptocurrency is decreasing, promising optimistic prospects for prices, provided that demand increases or remains constant.

According to billionaire Tim Draper, women will be the main driver of the next bull market, as they control about 80% of retail spending. “You can’t buy food, clothes and housing with bitcoin yet, but once you can, there will be no reason to hold on to fiat currency,” he said, predicting the price of the first cryptocurrency to rise to $250,000 by mid-2023. It should be noted that this prediction is by no means new. Back in 2018, Draper predicted bitcoin at $250,000 by 2022, moved the forecast to early 2023 in the summer of 2021, and extended it now for another six months.

And finally, some information from the criminal world. Moreover, it concerns not only the future, but also the past and present, and is important for each of us. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has studied cases of cryptocurrency fraud and has divided them into three categories. The first relates to fraud, where the victim believes they are investing in a legitimate asset. However, the crypto app, exchange, or website turns out to be fake. The second category of scams involves fake crypto tokens used to facilitate money laundering activities. The third type of fraud involves the use of cryptocurrencies to make fraudulent payments.

ASIC says the top signs of a crypto scam include “getting an offer out of the blue,” “fake celebrity ads,” and asking a “romantic partner you only know online” to send money in crypto. Other red flags include asking to pay for financial services in crypto, asking to pay more money to access funds, withholding investment profits "for tax purposes" or offering "free money" or "guaranteed" investment income.

In general, as Adventus Caesennius, legate of the Imperial Legion from the computer game The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim, said: “Keep your vigilance. It will pay off sooner or later."


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: The Pair Is at a Crossroads

We wondered at the beginning of the last review if the dollar rally had come to an end. Let us recall that the US inflation data published on November 10 turned out to be significantly better than both previous values and forecasts. Core consumer inflation (CPI) rose by 0.3% in October, which was lower than both the forecast of 0.5% and the previous September value of 0.6%. The annual growth rate of core inflation slowed down as well to 6.3% (against the forecast of 6.5%, and 6.6% a month ago).

This pace of change in CPI was the slowest in the last 9 months, confirming that a series of sharp interest rate hikes has finally had the desired effect. Market participants have immediately decided that the Fed is now likely to slow down the pace of tightening its monetary policy (QT). As a result, the DXY Dollar Index went into a steep peak, losing 2.1%, which was a record drop since December 2015. The American currency weakened against the euro as well: EUR/USD rose from 0.9935 to 1.0363 in two days, from November 10 to 11, breaking through the parity level.

The pair continued to grow at the beginning of last week: it fixed a local maximum at 1.0480 on Tuesday, November 15, but then went down sharply to 1.0279, and ended the five-day period in the 1.3210 zone.

The main reasons for this behavior are the ambiguous macro statistics from the US, the hawkish forecasts of the Fed leaders and the vague statements by the head of the ECB. Let's start in order, with statistics. Data on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduction in inflationary pressure: the growth slowed down from 8.4% to 8.0%. US construction volumes rose to 1.425 million new homes in October, which was higher than expected. But at the same time, the September figure had been revised up to 1.488 million homes. As a result, the dynamics turned out to be negative. Statistics on building permits issued in October was also above the forecast of 1.526 against 1.512 million houses, but lower than the previous month­, 1.564 million. The manufacturing activity index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia generally fell sharply to -19.4 points against -8.7 points in September, although the forecast for October was -6.2.

Things are quite multidirectional in Europe as well. Thus, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany turned out to be significantly better than both the forecast and the previous value (-36.7/-50.0/-59.2). But the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone pointed to an increase in inflation from 9.9% to 10.6%.

The second factor that determined the dynamics of the dollar was the statements by the leaders of the US Federal Reserve. Thus, if the Fed's chief hawk, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of St. Louis James Bullard, had earlier predicted a peak in the key interest rate in the range of 4.75-5.00%, he has now raised the bar by another 25 basis points to 5.00 - 5.25%. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daley shares a similar opinion, pointing to the target range of 4.75-5.25%. Atlanta Fed chief Rafael Bostic also said that monetary tightening and interest rate hikes would continue.

Note that, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will raise the base rate by 50 bps in December is 85%, while the probability of a rise by 75 bps is only 15%. Such assessments of the market can be considered quite neutral, since the American Central Bank is still ahead of its counterparts from other G10 countries in terms of monetary policy tightening. Thus, speaking at the Financial Conference in Frankfurt (Germany) this week, the head of the European regulator Christine Lagarde said that the ECB certainly “expects a further increase in rates to the levels necessary to ensure that inflation returns to the medium-term target of 2%.” But at the same time, she did not outline any specific steps. Moreover, Madame Lagarde emphasized that "it is necessary that the normalization of the balance occurs in a measured and predictable way." After such words, investors experienced a certain disappointment, which did not allow EUR/USD to continue its growth.

According to strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, the pair will fall again below the 1.0000 parity line in the medium term. "If the Fed remains a key driver for the dollar, the ECB will continue to play a fairly minor role for the euro, which instead remains largely pegged to global risk sentiment and geopolitical/energy dynamics." At the same time, ING does not rule out a new mini rally for the pair in the short term.

Only 15% of analysts expect the pair to rise even higher to the north in the near future, 55% expect a turn to the south. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 15% are in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the advantage is also on the side of the greens: 75% advise buying the pair, 25% selling. The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 1.0270, followed by the levels and zones at 1.0254, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580, and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0390-1.0400, 1.0422-1.0438, 1.0480, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

The calendar includes Wednesday, November 23, among the events of the upcoming week. A lot of macroeconomic statistics on the US economy will be released on this day. This includes data on unemployment, the state of the housing market, and the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods. In addition, the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve will be published. Information on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be received on the same day. The United States has a holiday on Thursday, November 24, and an early closing of trading on Friday, November 25: the country celebrates Thanksgiving. But the value of the IFO Business Climate Index and the volume of German GDP will become known on the same days.

GBP/USD: Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound

As in the case of the euro, GBP/USD rose not because of the gains in the pound, but because of the weakening of the dollar, caused by the latest US inflation data. As for the British currency, the fundamental background of the United Kingdom gives signals about the deterioration of the economic situation in the country over and over again. Thus, according to data published last week, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.6%. The average salary level increased from 5.5% to 5.7%. Inflation, such as the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose in the UK in October to its highest level since 1982 and reached 11.1% (with a forecast of 10.7% and the September value of 10.1%). Retail sales (y/y) fell by -6.1% in October against the forecast -6.5% and the previous result -6.8%. It seems that the fall has slowed down here, but it is still a very strong fall.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt presented a new plan from the government of new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Thursday November 17, according to which budget spending should be reduced by up to 60 billion pounds. Given that this plan also included tax increases, GBP/USD could go down sharply again. However, as ING analysts commented sarcastically, "the pound has survived the long-awaited autumn announcement by the Treasury Secretary." The impact of tax increases on the economy may not be huge and should only affect high incomes and the energy industry. However, ING believes that it is still too early to talk about stabilization and believes as before that downside risks remain for the pair, as the dollar may start to recover towards the end of the year. As a result, the target for GBP/USD will be below 1.1500.

While ING thinks that the pound has survived Jeremy Hunt's speech in the short term, the economic situation in the UK still looks rather bleak in the long term according to experts from Commerzbank. The head of the Ministry of Finance turned out to be much more pessimistic than the average opinion of analysts. He believes that the country's economy is already in recession and expects a 1.4% decline in GDP (analysts' median forecast is -0.5%).

Of course, rising inflationary pressures in the UK could lead to more aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). However, according to many experts, the regulator will still avoid drastic steps, since excessive tightening of monetary policy can generally knock out the economy for a long two years. According to forecasts, the UK's current account deficit will remain at more than 5% of GDP in 2023-24. The result may be a resumption of the downward trend of the British currency

The last chord of the week for GBP/USD sounded around 1.1880. The median forecast for the near future looks rather mixed: 40% of experts side with the bulls, 25% side with the bears, and the remaining 35% prefer to remain neutral.

Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, of which, as in the case of the previous pair, 15% give overbought signals. As for the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the green ones. The levels and support zones for the pair are 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1715, 1.1600, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the pair is for resistance at the levels of 1.1960, 1.2045-1.2085, 1.2135, 1.2210, 1.2290-1.2330, 1.2425 and 1.2575-1.2610.

Statistics on the United Kingdom economy include the publication of the S&P Global Business Activity Index in the country's manufacturing sector on Wednesday, November 23. The values of a whole group of business activity indices will become known a day later, on Thursday, November 24: in the services sector, in the manufacturing sector and the UK composite PMI.

USD/JPY: What Awaits the Yen after April 08?

Well, what can we say about this pair? Actually, nothing new. “Uncertainty about the Japanese economy is extremely high,” said Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), speaking to the country's Parliament. And he added that his organization "will continue to ease monetary policy to support the economy and achieve a target inflation rate of 2% on a sustainable, stable basis, backed by wage growth."

The Japanese Central bank governor's comments come amid reports that the country's consumer inflation rate has hit a 40-year high. And, according to many experts, BoJ's super-pigeon position will not change until April 08, 2023. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda's powers in this post will end, where he can be replaced by a new candidate with a less dovish position. Before that, in Q1of the new year, an important factor determining the future monetary policy of the Central Bank will be the growth of wages in the country, which can lead to a revolutionary reversal of USD/JPY down to the south. After that, according to the forecasts of a number of experts, it may end 2023 near the level of 130.00.

As for closer prospects, the forecast of specialists from the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale will be interesting here. “USD/JPY has experienced a deep pullback after breaking below chart levels at 145.00. A break of 137.80 could extend the downtrend,” they write. “An initial rebound is not ruled out, but 143.50 and the lower end of the previous range at 145 are likely to be short-term resistance levels. Holding below 143.50 risks another leg of decline. The break of 137.80 could see further downside to 200-DMA near 134 and 132.50.”

The pair ended the last trading session in the 140.35 zone. The fact that the dollar will try to win back at least part of the losses in the near future, and USD/JPY will turn to the north, is expected by 40% of analysts. 15% vote for a breakthrough to the south and a new fall. The remaining 45% have found it difficult to make a forecast. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 100% are looking south, 10% of them are in the oversold zone. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the red ones. The nearest strong support level is located in the zone 138.85-139.05, followed by the levels 138.45, 137.50, 135.55, 134.55 and the zone 131.35-131.75. Levels and resistance zones are142.20, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

No important events regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected this week. It should also be borne in mind that Wednesday, November 23 is a holiday in the country, Labor Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is There Life after Bankruptcy?



The bankruptcy of the FTX exchange remains the most discussed event. But if the main topic was the event itself last week, the focus of the discussion has now shifted to the question of what will happen to the crypto industry as a whole. Will it be able to avoid collapse and recover from its wounds? And what can be done to prevent similar upheavals in the future?

The FTX incident has shown that the cryptocurrency industry needs “very careful regulation.” This opinion was expressed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and she added that the consequences of the collapse of the Sam Bankman-Freed empire could be even worse if the cryptocurrency market had been more closely intertwined with the traditional financial system.

The head of the Ministry of Finance was supported by experts from the investment bank JPMorgan, who consider current events a positive catalyst. They stated that the FTX crisis would benefit the industry and help it move a few steps forward. The collapse of one of the largest crypto companies will push regulators to accelerate the process of forming regulatory rules that allow effective control of the sector. And the introduction of a comprehensive regulatory framework will facilitate the institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies.

Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker who served time in prison for securities fraud and known as the “Wolf of Wall Street”, has also sided with law enforcement. He believes that the potential of bitcoin will be realized when the crypto sector becomes fully regulated. And this “Wolf” called the current market downturn “cleansing”.

As a result of this “cleansing” and a prolonged decline in the crypto market, according to the Bank for International Settlements, approximately three-quarters of bitcoin investors lost money. And according to a study by the analytical agency Crypto Fund Research, losses of cryptocurrency funds can reach up to $5 billion. According to experts, the crisis affected 25-40% of industry investment structures that invested in FTX or its utility token FTT. Joshua Gnaizda, CEO of Crypto Fund Research, clarified that we are talking about 7-12% of assets under fund management.

Paradigm and Sequoia Capital reported that their potential losses due to the FTX crisis could be $278 million and $213 million, respectively. About $175 million has been blocked at the Genesis Trading brokerage company. As of November 8, Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital investment firm had $76.8 million in FTX-related positions. Multicoin Capital invested $25 million in the US division of FTX, and also held $2 million in USDC on the exchange itself. Investments in FTX US through the Venture Fund II, created in July, amounted to $430 million. Crypto Fund Research experts have estimated the value of Pantera Capital's FTX-related assets at approximately $100 million.

Industry participants admitted on condition of anonymity that the losses of asset managers could be even greater. “The number of funds absolutely destroyed by this bankruptcy is just beginning to be revealed,” one of the sources said. Researchers expect a record number of investor requests for refunds from crypto funds in November, up to $2 billion. The previous high of $1.3 billion was recorded in June after the Terra crash.

JPMorgan analysts also believe that the fall of major cryptocurrencies is not over, and the FTX bankruptcy crisis could lead to “cascading liquidations”. The market decline will continue for some time, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. That being said, the JPMorgan team believes that the blow to total capitalization is likely to be less this time, as the TerraUSD episode has already caused a pullback in risk taking and a more wary attitude towards investing in dubious projects.

Edward Snowden, a former CIA and National Security Agency officer who had fled to Russia, said that after the collapse of FTX, the industry should switch to secure DEXs. Decentralized exchanges are an alternative to centralized exchanges and are managed solely by smart contracts without the participation of a third party. Thanks to full decentralization, DEXs in their original state should never face problems similar to FTX, as their reserves never fall below users' deposits.

At the time of writing, Friday evening November 18, bitcoin has stopped the fall caused by the collapse of FTX and is consolidating in the $ 16,550-16,650 area. Such a lull after the tsunami gave BTC supporters a vengeance to demonstrate their faith in its bullish future. Thus, MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced that he is not going to abandon his strategy of buying and accumulating digital gold. Tesla CEO and new Twitter owner Elon Musk is confident that BTC will survive the bear market, although it will take a long time before its full potential is realized. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, also expressed optimism, who said that he is not concerned about the current price movement of the main cryptocurrency.

A popular analyst named Dave the Wave joined the chorus of optimists. He acknowledged that the cryptocurrency markets are facing a huge loss of public confidence. But at the same time, he recalled that bitcoin had earlier remained in a long-term uptrend even when many announced its actual death. “Do not underestimate the speculative beast underlying the BTC market, as reflected in the LGC (logarithmic growth curve), which has demonstrated the ability to absorb the most terrible news and events,” Dave the Wave believes.

BTC/USD has already lost long-standing support in the form of the MA200 weekly moving average. However, experts from the analytical firm TradingShot conducted a fractal analysis, which did not rule out a powerful rally in the main cryptocurrency in 2023. In addition, its results suggest an increase in the bullish potential of the coin by 2024 and, possibly, its growth to $95,000.

Analyst Jason Pizzino opined that bitcoin bulls would not allow BTC to fall to $10,000. “We have a figure of $14,900 in the spot market as a cycle low and around $15,500 depending on which exchange you use.” According to Pizzino, “If we go above $18,500 or $18,600, that would be a strong indication that the whole thing was just a shake-up.” “However,” the trader added, “that doesn't mean that once we close above that $18,500, we can't go back down. We would then have a price of around $13,500, which is relatively well in line with the previous highs of the old 2019 cycle.”

Morgan Stanley bank experts do not exclude a new fall. In their opinion, if BTC fails to gain a foothold above $17,000, traders will soon switch to sales. The result, most likely, will be a fall in the BTC rate below $15,000. In the event of such a rollback, the cryptocurrency can only qualify for immediate support in the $14,000 region. Moreover, Morgan Stanley does not exclude that bitcoin will find the bottom at $13,500 or even $12,500. But that would be the worst of the scenarios.

Delphi Digital came to a similar conclusion. Its report says that market consolidation has been delayed and that technical indicators hint at a new reset by the end of November. At best, bitcoin will be able to stay in the range of $14,000 to $16,000.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading in the $16,600 area, ETH/USD - $1,200. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.832 trillion ($0.860 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for seven days has not been able to get out of the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 23 points.

Finally, a few tips from Jordan Belfort. Tip No.1: Invest in bitcoin for 3-4 years. “If you take a three-, four-, or five-year horizon, I would be shocked if you didn’t make money,” says this Wolf of Wall Street. Tip No.2: Don't look at anything other than bitcoin and Ethereum. Finally, Tip No.3: Don't panic. “The entire crypto world is paralyzed with fear. I will say that if you return to the game, now is the very moment when the most money is being made in the market.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- A deepfake of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was spread on Twitter, where he offered to take part in a cryptocurrency draw as compensation for the collapse of his exchange. The deepfake video directed people to a website hosting the “largest $100 million cryptocurrency giveaway.” To participate in the “draw”, the scammers offered users to send any number of coins to a specific address.
The fake account was quickly banned. Apparently, the scammers used an $8 Twitter Blue subscription to pass off a fake Sam Bankman-Freed profile as a real one. For reference: Deepfake is a technology for creating and replacing elements on existing videos using artificial intelligence and neural networks.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently shared a mysterious tweet that puzzled the cryptocurrency community. Without going into details, he wrote that "the rumor is that something important is about to happen." Dumbfounded by the strange text, readers are now trying to figure out if Buterin is trolling or is really trying to say something to the community.
This veiled warning comes after a dark tweet by renowned venture capitalist Paul Graham. He stated there that the crypto economy was about to experience “systemic risk” and referred to information he heard from a trustworthy person. At the same time, he added that he "does not know anything specific." So, it's possible that Buterin was simply making fun of Graham's vague doom warning.

- In addition, rumors have spread that Vitalik Buterin is getting rid of his Ethereum holdings. The wallet he allegedly owns has sold 3,000 ETH worth $3.75 million through Uniswap decentralized exchange. The question of whether this wallet really belongs to the Ethereum co-founder is debatable, but transactions were made with his other known addresses as well. These steps were taken in the middle of the night on Saturday, November 12, less than 24 hours after news of FTX's possible bankruptcy broke.

- Billionaire investor and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Bill Ackman is optimistic about the prospects for cryptocurrencies, despite recent industry events, including the FTX crash. “Cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and with proper oversight, they can benefit society and develop the global economy. All bona fide ecosystem participants should be highly motivated to expose and eliminate fraudulent projects, as they increase the risk of regulatory intervention,” Ackman said.
According to him, he was initially skeptical because he saw that the phone, the Internet and cryptocurrencies have “one thing in common”: “Each of these technologies helps the other in terms of improving fraud opportunities.” The billionaire also assumed that tokens have no intrinsic value and are simply a “modern version of tulip mania” but has now changed his point of view. The billionaire admitted that he has invested in several crypto projects. However, the share of such investments does not exceed 2% of his total portfolio.

- According to Happycoin.news, Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker convicted of fraud and commonly known as The Wolf of Wall Street, believes that the FTX trading platform's bankruptcy was intentional, and Sam Bankman-Fried is a sociopath who implemented FTX pump and dump schemes. Belfort called FTX's business model a "fraternity house," which is more like a hostel than an actual business. In addition, in his opinion, all Bankman-Fried decisions can be equated to madness, and regulators need to focus on clients who lost money as a result of the exchange crash.

- A number of US senators have sent a letter to the management of the holding company Fidelity Investments, calling for a reconsideration of the option to include bitcoin in retirement savings accounts. It was supposed to be available to employees of 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans.
“The recent FTX crash has made it clear that the digital asset industry is in serious trouble. It's full of charismatic geeks, opportunistic scammers and self-proclaimed investment advisors who promote products without a proper level of transparency,” the legislators explained their move.

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the world-famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad, still believes in the bright future of the two flagship digital assets bitcoin and Ethereum. According to him, bitcoin is not the same as Sam Bankman-Freed. The situation around FTX must be considered as a special case, and conclusions about the entire industry cannot be drawn only on its basis.

- Analytics firm Glassnode said in their November 21 report that recent market weakness has “shattered the confidence of bitcoin holders” and the looming crypto winter is following in the footsteps of its 2018-19 predecessor. According to Glassnode, most of the whales (wallets with more than 1,000 BTC) are now lying on the bottom, waiting for better times.
At the height of the previous bear market, bitcoin fell by 84% from its maximum. It took just under a year for the asset to fall from $20,000 to $3,200 in November 2018. It took about the same time this time to drop 77.3% and crash from $69,000 on November 21 to a new cycle low of $15,482. At the same time, some analysts believe that BTC should not be expected to recover soon, because several months had passed after the collapse of 2018 before the first noticeable upward impulse appeared.
In addition, last week saw the fourth-largest spike in realized losses with a daily volume of $1.45 billion. This dumping of crypto assets by long-term players “is often a sign of fear and capitulation among this more experienced cohort,” the report notes.

- The November fall in the cryptocurrency market resulted in a sharp increase in the number of unprofitable bitcoin addresses. According to the IntoTheBlock platform, the proportion of wallets that bought BTC at prices higher than today is now just over 51%. The total number of BTC holders is now 47.85 million, of which 24.56 million addresses are suffering losses. About 45% of wallets are still in the black, and the remaining addresses are in the break-even zone.
The last time a similar situation was observed was after the March market crash, IntoTheBlock analysts say. At the same time, one of them added that the share of unprofitable addresses usually exceeds 50% at the moment when the market is at the bottom. Thus, he hinted that a more significant fall in cryptocurrency should not be expected. However, statistics show the opposite: the share of addresses that suffered losses reached 55% in January 2019, and this figure exceeded 62% during the dominance of the bearish trend in 2015.

- Dave the Wave, a well-known crypto analyst with over 130,000 Twitter followers, has published an updated Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model. According to his charts, bitcoin is now right at the lower end of the long-term LGC, which has historically acted as support.
BTC's history has already seen price actions below this curve: for example, in the 2015 bear market or during the crash at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. However, such a drop did not last long in past cycles, and the cryptocurrency regained its long-term support quickly. This usually signaled the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market.
The analyst noted in a comment to his tweet that special attention should be paid to the closing of the month. According to him, there is technically nothing catastrophic in the price action yet, but the lower border of the model is hardly holding. If bitcoin closes the month below $16,000, LGC support is highly likely to collapse, and the fall will continue. And vice versa: if it manages to stay on the lower logarithmic curve and bounce up, this may be a signal for the beginning of a new bull market.

- American economist Benjamin Cowen is one of the best-known proponents of bitcoin’s cyclical nature and the cycle lengthening hypothesis. He has recently published a chart comparing the current bear market with the previous three. We see here the return on investment (ROI) of BTC of those who bought it at its absolute peak. The chart shows that bitcoin is at a very interesting point today.
On the one hand, 376 days have passed since ATH (the all-time high). In the previous two bearish markets, this period was 363 days in 2018 and 410 days in 2015. On the other hand, the current ROI is 0.247. In previous bearish markets, it always fell below 0.2. If this happens now, bitcoin will face another fall.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has increased the negative outlook for bitcoin to $10,000. The cryptocurrency has fallen below $16,000, but Hayes believes that the story will continue to develop. The market is again on alert, as reports are received about the possible bankruptcy of Genesis, a branch of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) fund. The Genesis Credit Branch stopped the withdrawal of funds by customers on November 16. This happened after the company failed to raise $1 billion in funding.
Binance was expected to join the deal. But the trading platform refused to participate in financing, fearing a conflict of interest. However, Genesis is not officially preparing for bankruptcy, and the funding target has been lowered to $500 million.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: FOMC Protocol Dropped the Dollar



Last week ended quietly: the US celebrated Thanksgiving. But its first part was marked by the weakening of the dollar, as a result of which EUR/USD rose by more than 200 points, from 1.0222 to 1.0448. It has risen above its 200-day moving average (SMA) for the first time in 17 months, since June 16, 2021.

The reason for this behavior of the US currency was the forecasts regarding the future policy of the US Federal Reserve. Market participants expect the regulator to slow down the rate of interest rate hikes significantly. And the minutes of the November meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), published on November 23, confirmed the validity of such expectations.

They state that “Some of the Fed's leaders have observed that monetary policy has reached a point where it is sufficiently restrictive to meet FOMC targets and it would be appropriate to slow down the rate hike. The vast majority of participants in the meeting considered that a slowdown in the pace of recovery is likely to be appropriate in the near future.”

At the same time, some of the FOMC members believe that the rate "should reach a slightly higher level than previously expected," since both inflation and the imbalance of supply and demand in the US economy remain at a fairly high level. Combining these two points of view, we can conclude that the peak of monetary tightening (QT) may be higher than previously planned, but the rise to it will be longer and smoother.

Recall that the Fed has raised rates by 75 basis points (bp) four times in a row, and the market is now expecting a 50 bp rise in December, with the prospect of moving to a step of 25 b.p. in 2023. The key rate for the dollar is 4.00% at the moment.

As for actions on the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB raised the euro rate by 50 bps in July and then twice by 75 bps, and it is at 2.00% now. The swap market estimates it will rise by 50 b.p. in December, with a probability of 62%, and by 75 b.p. with a probability of 38%. The European regulator may also move to a step of 25 b.p. next year. In this case, the gap between the rates on the dollar and the euro will remain, which will give EUR/USD an incentive to fall below the parity line of 1.0000 again.

It should be noted that the ECB's monetary tightening has not had a suffocating effect on the European economy so far. Moreover, there is a way out of the energy crisis caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia because of its armed invasion of Ukraine. The EU countries have decided to exclude Russian gas from joint purchases. European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said that the EU managed to replace the Russian fuel completely with the help of energy resources from other sources. Gas storages, primarily in Germany, are already filled to the very neck. And the risks of Europe experiencing rolling blackouts or freezing this winter have been drastically reduced.

Against this background, the Business Activity Index (PMI) in the German manufacturing sector rose from 45.1 to 46.7 instead of the expected fall, while it rose from 47.3 to 47.8 in the Eurozone as a whole. The IFO business climate index in Germany has also started to improve: with the forecast of 85.0, it rose from 84.5 to 86.3 in reality. These macro statistics, along with Germany's GDP growth of 0.4% in Q3 (0.1% in Q2, the forecast is 0.3%), give the ECB the green light for further rate hikes. And this, in turn, according to a number of analysts, may push EUR/USD further up, to the zone of 1.0500-1.0600.

The week closed at 1.0400, above the 200-day SMA. Scotiabank experts believe that this could strengthen the bullish momentum. And their colleagues from Commerzbank say that the comfort level for the pair is likely to be between 1.0400 and 1.0500. In general, among the analysts surveyed, 30% of analysts expect the pair to continue to grow, and 40% expect it to turn to the south. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 15% is in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the 100% advantage is on the green side.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at the 1.0380 horizon, then there are levels and zones 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally, the September 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0430-1.0450, 1.0480, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

The coming week will be full of macroeconomic statistics. Preliminary data on such an important indicator as the level of consumer prices (CPI) in Germany and the Eurozone, respectively, will be released on Tuesday, November 29 and Wednesday, November 30. Data on unemployment in Germany and on GDP and the US labor market will also become known on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak on the same day. Thursday will bring information on retail sales in Germany and business activity (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector. We are traditionally waiting for another portion of statistics from the US labor market on the first Friday of the month, December 02, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the country's agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: How Long Will the Pound Continue to Grow?

Despite the gloomy global outlook for the pound, a bullish scenario worked in the short term, voted by most experts, 85% of trend indicators and 100% of D1 oscillators. GBP/USD hit its highest level in three months at 1.2153 on Thursday, November 24. As in the case of the euro and other G10 currencies, the reason for its growth was not the achievement of the pound, but the weakening of the dollar.

The final chord for the pair sounded slightly below the maximum, at around 1.2095. According to Scotiabank strategists, the British currency rebounded strongly enough from the all-time low of September 26 (1.0350) to hold on to current levels. Fiscal policy in the UK has stabilized, market confidence has strengthened, and the pair's uptrend has been fairly stable. These factors, according to Scotiabank, should help the GBP/USD quotes stabilize in the 1.2000 area for the foreseeable future, and possibly even rise a little higher.

Analysts at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, point to an even higher target. “We believe positioning has played a major role in the recovery of the pound, and GBP/USD could see further temporary gains towards the 1.22/23 area, which we see once again as the best level for the rest of the year,” they write.

At the same time, experts do not rule out a new bearish impulse and draw attention to the risks of the end of this year and the beginning of 2023, when the Central Banks of leading countries will raise rates during the recession. As we wrote earlier, rising inflationary pressures in the UK could lead to more aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). However, according to many economists, the regulator is likely to avoid drastic steps, since excessive tightening of monetary policy could knock out the UK economy for two long years. According to forecasts, the UK's current account deficit will remain at more than 5% of GDP in 2023-24. The result of such careful actions of the BoE may be the resumption of the downtrend of the British currency

The median forecast for the near term does not give any clear guidance: 45% of experts side with the bulls, exactly the same number side with the bears, and the remaining 10% prefer to remain neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, however, 25% of them give signals that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of 85% to 15% is in favor of the greens, like a week ago. The levels and support zones for the pair are 1.2030, 1.1960, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720, 1.1600, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2150, 1.2210, 1.2290-1.2330, 1.2425 and 1.2575-1.2610.

Among the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, Thursday 01 December attracts attention this week, when the value of November's Business Activity Index (PMI) in the country's manufacturing sector will be known.

USD/JPY: The Yen Thanks the Fed

As an analyst wrote, "The whole world (except the US) thanks the Fed for the minutes of its meeting, which reinforced the dovish reversal, crashing the dollar and US bond yields, and gave respite to the fallen currencies around the world." Indeed, the DXY Dollar Index went down and 10-year Treasury yields hit a 7-week low.

As the yields on these US Treasuries declined, the Japanese currency was among the leaders of growth, and USD/JPY rushed to November lows once again, finding a bottom at 138.04 this time.

(Recall that there is a fairly stable correlation between US government bond rates and USD/JPY. And if the yield on securities increases, so does the dollar against the yen. If the 10-year Treasury bill yield falls, the yen rises, and the pair forms a downtrend).

Strategists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) say that if the dollar continues to weaken, the pair might retest the 137.70 area. ING strategists look even further here. According to their forecasts, if the yield on 10-year treasuries ends 2023 at around 2.75%, USD/JPY may end up in the 125.00-130.00 zone at that moment, that is, where it was traded in May-August 2022. As for the possible upward dollar rally this December, according to ING, it will not be able to lift the pair above the 142.00-145.00 zone. There is no question of updating the maximum of October 21 and a new assault on the height of 152.00.

In addition, we must not forget about Day X, which is scheduled for April 8 next year. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end hs term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a less dovish position. Such a change could lead to a revolutionary push for USD/JPY to the south. After that, it could end 2023 exactly where ING strategists expect it to be.

As for the current situation, the pair closed last week at 139.05. Only 10% of analysts are counting on the fact that the dollar will try to win back at least part of the losses in the near future, and USD/JPY will turn to the north. 45% vote for a breakthrough to the south and a new fall. And another 45% find it difficult to make a forecast. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 100% are looking south, 10% of them are in the oversold zone. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the red ones.

The nearest strong support level is located in the zone 138.00-138.30, followed by the levels and zones 137.50-137.70, 136.00, 135.55, 134.55 and the zone 131.35-131.75. Levels and resistance zones are 139.85, 140.60, 142.20, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs. around 158.00.

No important events regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Market of Rumors and Fears

BTC/USD fell to its lowest level in two years on Monday, November 21. It was also trading in the $15,500 area on November 21, 2020. The local bottom was found at $15,482 this time. The main cryptocurrency was kept from falling further by the growth of risk sentiment, which is pushing up the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices. Additional support was provided by the minutes of the last Fed meeting published on November 23, in which the market saw dovish sentiment. But despite this, cryptocurrencies are still under strong bearish pressure, and many experts believe that a new collapse is inevitable.

JPMorgan analysts have warned that the collapse of major digital assets is not over, and the FTX crash crisis could act like a domino and lead to “cascading liquidations”. And now the market is gripped by anxiety related to the possible bankruptcy of Genesis, a subsidiary of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) fund. This happened after the company failed to raise $1 billion in funding. Citing the difficulties of Genesis, the lending arm of the Gemini crypto exchange has already frozen the withdrawal of client assets. Bloomberg estimates their volume at $700 million.

Investors are already afraid of their own shadow. And then Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin added fear by posting a mysterious tweet. Without going into details, he wrote that "the rumor is that something important is about to happen." Almost at the same time, information appeared from somewhere that he was getting rid of his Ethereum reserves, and this alerted the crypto community furthermore. A wallet allegedly owned by Vitalik Buterin sold 3,000 ETH worth $3.75 million in the middle of the night, just hours after FTX crashed.

Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker convicted of fraud and commonly known as The Wolf of Wall Street, believes that the FTX trading platform's bankruptcy was intentional, and Sam Bankman-Fried is a sociopath who implemented FTX pump and dump schemes.

The author of the world-famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, tried to soften the intensity of passions, saying that he still believes in the bright future of the two flagship digital assets bitcoin and Ethereum. According to him, bitcoin is not the same as Sam Bankman-Freed. The situation around FTX must be considered as a special case, and conclusions about the entire industry cannot be drawn only on its basis.

But it seems that investors are in no hurry to listen to Mr. Kiyosaki. Analytics firm Glassnode said in their November 21 report that recent market weakness has “shattered the confidence of bitcoin holders” and the looming crypto winter is following in the footsteps of its 2018-19 predecessor. According to Glassnode, most of the whales (wallets with more than 1,000 BTC) are now lying on the bottom, waiting for better times.

At the height of the previous bear market, bitcoin fell by 84% from its maximum. It took just under a year for the asset to fall from $20,000 in November 2018 to $3,200. It took about the same time this time to drop 77.3% and crash from $69,000 on November 21 to a new cycle low of $15,482. At the same time, some analysts believe that BTC should not be expected to recover soon, because several months had passed after the collapse of 2018 before the first noticeable upward impulse appeared.

In addition, last week saw the fourth-largest spike in realized losses with a daily volume of $1.45 billion. This dumping of crypto assets by long-term players “is often a sign of fear and capitulation among this more experienced cohort,” the Glassnode report notes.

According to the IntoTheBlock platform, out of 47.85 million BTC holders, 24.56 million addresses (51%) suffer losses. About 45% of wallets are still in the black, and the remaining addresses are in the break-even zone. According to IntoTheBlock analysts, the last time a similar situation was observed after the March market crash. At the same time, one of them added that the share of unprofitable addresses usually exceeds 50% at the moment when the market is at the bottom. Thus, he hinted that a more significant fall in the cryptocurrency should not be expected. However, statistics show the opposite: the share of addresses that suffered losses reached 55% in December 2018, and this figure exceeded 62% during the dominance of the bearish trend in 2015.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has increased the negative outlook for bitcoin to $10,000. American economist Benjamin Cowen does not rule out another decline in quotations either. He has recently published a comparison chart of the current bear market with the previous three, which shows that bitcoin is at a very interesting point today. On the one hand, 379 days have passed since ATH (the all-time high). In the previous two bearish markets, this period was 363 days in 2018 and 410 days in 2015. On the other hand, the current ROI (return on investment) is 0.247. In previous times, it has always fallen below the value of 0.2, which indicates a possible further fall of the market.

Another chart was published by a well-known cryptanalyst named Dave the Wave. According to his charts, bitcoin is now right at the lower end of the long-term LGC, which has historically acted as support. BTC's history has already seen price actions below this curve: for example, in the 2015 bear market or during the crash at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. However, such a fall did not last long then, and the cryptocurrency quickly restored its long-term support. This usually signaled the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market.

Dave the Wave noted in a comment on his chart that special attention should be paid to the end of the month. According to him, there is technically nothing catastrophic in the price action yet, but the lower border of the model is hardly holding. If bitcoin closes the month below $16,000, LGC support is highly likely to collapse, and the fall will continue. And vice versa: if it manages to hold on and bounce up, this may be a signal for the beginning of a new bull market.

In the meantime, at the time of writing this review (Friday evening, November 25), BTC/USD is trading in the $16,520 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.833 trillion ($0.832 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 23 to 20 points in seven days and could not get out of the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- A bull market will soon begin for bitcoin and other digital assets, but this will happen after a noticeable fall and reaching a real bottom. This opinion was expressed by cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen.
The expert expects the 2018 crypto winter scenario to repeat. At that time, digital gold demonstrated several stages of gradual recovery. But growth became stable after quotes fell to the minimum of the bearish cycle. “When the market is bearish, we see the following stages constantly: a fall, a consolidation, a small increase, and a failure again. We are following a simple signal: the intersection of the 200-day moving average and the bitcoin price chart,” the analyst said. According to him, such an intersection will take place on December 25-27. This is when we can expect the price to reach a real bottom and move to sustainable growth.
Cowen pointed to the duration of bearish markets, which has historically been about a year, as an additional argument. The 2014 cycle lasted 14 months, and the 2018 cycle lasted 12 months.
According to the expert's forecast, the bottom has not yet been reached so far. In addition to not crossing the BTC price with the 200-day SMA, Cowen also referred to the Puell Multiple indicator. The metric value at the minimum was about 0.3 in previous cycles. The indicator has so far dropped only to 0.375 this year.

- Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP investment company, shared his prediction that bitcoin will continue to fall, and its immediate goal is $10,000. He added that he would not invest his own money or his clients' money in digital assets as "it's too risky." “But cryptocurrency is here to stay because there are some investors who still believe in it,” the famous investor “reassured” crypto enthusiasts.
Mark Mobius is not alone in his predictions. Deribit options data shows a large number of outstanding bitcoin put contracts, so called open interest, with an exercise price of $10,000 at the end of December.

- Analysts at IntoTheBlock note that bitcoin is currently experiencing a sharp backwardance: a situation where BTC futures are priced much lower compared to the current price of the asset in the regular (spot) market. This suggests that the market is under strong pressure from sellers. Traders are actively opening short positions, hoping that the price of bitcoin will continue to go down.
At the same time, IntoTheBlock points out that the times when futures contracts are backward tend to coincide with market lows, as was the case in March 2020 and May 2021. And it can also be a signal that the cryptocurrency has found a bottom now. A similar trend can be seen with extremely negative funding rates.

- Unlike Mark Mobius, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and well-known analyst, remains a bitcoin supporter and believes that this asset can still serve as an investment tool.
Lee agrees that the passing year has been a terrible year for the entire crypto industry. The macroeconomic events of early 2022, the collapse of Terra, which not only buried two TOP-10 cryptocurrencies, but also caused a domino effect that destroyed many industry participants. A new shock came in November when one of the market giants, the FTX crypto exchange, and related companies, collapsed. There are now rumors questioning the fortunes of Digital Currency Group and its subsidiaries, two of which are Genesis and Grayscale. However, despite all the tragedy of the current situation, Tom Lee believes that the above events are a "cleansing" moment for the industry, and next year should be better than this one.

- Michael Novogratz, CEO of the crypto investment company Galaxy Digital, said that digital assets will not leave the market, even though the industry is experiencing a crisis of confidence. “There are 150 million people who have chosen to store part of their wealth in bitcoin. […] Therefore, bitcoin, ethereum will not disappear. Other cryptocurrencies will not either,” he said.
Novogratz expects the recovery of the crypto industry and its slow growth. “You will see how people like ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood will soon enter the crypto market and invest. I don't think this will be a quick recovery. It will most likely take a long time. It won't be easy to restore trust. Centralized companies will have to act differently,” the businessman said.
Cathy Wood herself, according to Yahoo, answered “yes” when asked whether she still sticks to her forecast of the BTC price of $1 million by 2030.

- Analysts at investment bank JPMorgan believe that the cryptocurrency industry will change significantly after the collapse of FTX. Primarily due to stricter regulations. They cite the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the European Union (MiCA) as an example.
JPMorgan expects regulators to pay close attention to the issues of storing crypto assets and protecting consumers. These areas should lead to the same level of security as in the traditional financial system. Another way to protect consumers could be the separation of roles for cryptocurrency companies. When, for example, a cryptocurrency broker cannot be a credit service or provide custodial services at the same time. It is also important to ensure the transparency of the crypto business and oblige companies to provide periodic reporting on their status.
JPMorgan researchers do not expect a significant increase in the role of decentralized exchanges due to numerous restrictions for such sites. “We believe,” they write, “that centralized exchanges will continue to play a huge role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem for the foreseeable future. Especially for large institutional investors, even despite the FTX crash.”

- Renowned crypto trader Ton Vays has described how bulls can end a year-long bearish market. According to him, they should push the price of the main cryptocurrency to the November high, and this will start an upward rally. “I want to see a move to $23,000. If there's a rebound, we'll need to hold on to $19,000 and then come back for a further $23,000. This is 95% to 98% likely to show that a bull market has begun.”
The crypto trader who predicted the collapse of bitcoin in 2018 accurately does not rule out that bitcoin will soon face a new sale. “Another scenario is we will fall to $11,000. I believe the bull market will start right after that because I just don't believe bitcoin could fall even lower.” In any case, under any of these scenarios, Vays expects bitcoin to reach $23,000 later this year or early 2023.

- Small retail investors (up to 10 BTC) are becoming increasingly optimistic about bitcoin and have accumulated a record number of coins despite the FTX crash and the ongoing crisis, according to a report by the Glassnode analytics platform.
It is reported that “shrimp” investors (less than 1 BTC) added 96,200 coins worth $1.6 billion to their portfolios after the FTX crash in early November, which is a “record high balance increase”. And now they own 1.21 million BTC in total, which is equivalent to 6.3% of the current turnover of 19.2 million coins. Meanwhile, “crabs” (up to 10 BTC) have bought about 191,600 coins worth about $3.1 billion over the past 30 days, which is also a “convincing all-time high.”
While crabs and shrimps were accumulating a record number of bitcoins, large investors were selling them. According to Glassnode, bitcoin whales have released about 6,500 BTC ($107 million) to exchanges over the past month. However, this is a very small fraction of their total holdings of 6.3 million BTC ($104 billion), which suggests that the whales remain somewhat optimistic as well.

- Texas Governor Greg Abbott sees bitcoin's value to the world, adding that his state “wants to be at the center of it all.” Abbott urged bitcoin companies to set up operations in Texas, promising that anyone who does so will be rewarded with ease of doing business and a lack of regulatory controversy.
According to a recent SmartAsset study on cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US, Texas ranked fourth along with New Jersey, behind Nevada, followed by Florida and California.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

CryptoNews of the Week



- A bull market will soon begin for bitcoin and other digital assets, but this will happen after a noticeable fall and reaching a real bottom. This opinion was expressed by cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen.
The expert expects the 2018 crypto winter scenario to repeat. At that time, digital gold demonstrated several stages of gradual recovery. But growth became stable after quotes fell to the minimum of the bearish cycle. “When the market is bearish, we see the following stages constantly: a fall, a consolidation, a small increase, and a failure again. We are following a simple signal: the intersection of the 200-day moving average and the bitcoin price chart,” the analyst said. According to him, such an intersection will take place on December 25-27. This is when we can expect the price to reach a real bottom and move to sustainable growth.
Cowen pointed to the duration of bearish markets, which has historically been about a year, as an additional argument. The 2014 cycle lasted 14 months, and the 2018 cycle lasted 12 months.
According to the expert's forecast, the bottom has not yet been reached so far. In addition to not crossing the BTC price with the 200-day SMA, Cowen also referred to the Puell Multiple indicator. The metric value at the minimum was about 0.3 in previous cycles. The indicator has so far dropped only to 0.375 this year.

- Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP investment company, shared his prediction that bitcoin will continue to fall, and its immediate goal is $10,000. He added that he would not invest his own money or his clients' money in digital assets as "it's too risky." “But cryptocurrency is here to stay because there are some investors who still believe in it,” the famous investor “reassured” crypto enthusiasts.
Mark Mobius is not alone in his predictions. Deribit options data shows a large number of outstanding bitcoin put contracts, so called open interest, with an exercise price of $10,000 at the end of December.

- Analysts at IntoTheBlock note that bitcoin is currently experiencing a sharp backwardance: a situation where BTC futures are priced much lower compared to the current price of the asset in the regular (spot) market. This suggests that the market is under strong pressure from sellers. Traders are actively opening short positions, hoping that the price of bitcoin will continue to go down.
At the same time, IntoTheBlock points out that the times when futures contracts are backward tend to coincide with market lows, as was the case in March 2020 and May 2021. And it can also be a signal that the cryptocurrency has found a bottom now. A similar trend can be seen with extremely negative funding rates.

- Unlike Mark Mobius, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and well-known analyst, remains a bitcoin supporter and believes that this asset can still serve as an investment tool.
Lee agrees that the passing year has been a terrible year for the entire crypto industry. The macroeconomic events of early 2022, the collapse of Terra, which not only buried two TOP-10 cryptocurrencies, but also caused a domino effect that destroyed many industry participants. A new shock came in November when one of the market giants, the FTX crypto exchange, and related companies, collapsed. There are now rumors questioning the fortunes of Digital Currency Group and its subsidiaries, two of which are Genesis and Grayscale. However, despite all the tragedy of the current situation, Tom Lee believes that the above events are a "cleansing" moment for the industry, and next year should be better than this one.

- Michael Novogratz, CEO of the crypto investment company Galaxy Digital, said that digital assets will not leave the market, even though the industry is experiencing a crisis of confidence. “There are 150 million people who have chosen to store part of their wealth in bitcoin. […] Therefore, bitcoin, ethereum will not disappear. Other cryptocurrencies will not either,” he said.
Novogratz expects the recovery of the crypto industry and its slow growth. “You will see how people like ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood will soon enter the crypto market and invest. I don't think this will be a quick recovery. It will most likely take a long time. It won't be easy to restore trust. Centralized companies will have to act differently,” the businessman said.
Cathy Wood herself, according to Yahoo, answered “yes” when asked whether she still sticks to her forecast of the BTC price of $1 million by 2030.

- Analysts at investment bank JPMorgan believe that the cryptocurrency industry will change significantly after the collapse of FTX. Primarily due to stricter regulations. They cite the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the European Union (MiCA) as an example.
JPMorgan expects regulators to pay close attention to the issues of storing crypto assets and protecting consumers. These areas should lead to the same level of security as in the traditional financial system. Another way to protect consumers could be the separation of roles for cryptocurrency companies. When, for example, a cryptocurrency broker cannot be a credit service or provide custodial services at the same time. It is also important to ensure the transparency of the crypto business and oblige companies to provide periodic reporting on their status.
JPMorgan researchers do not expect a significant increase in the role of decentralized exchanges due to numerous restrictions for such sites. “We believe,” they write, “that centralized exchanges will continue to play a huge role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem for the foreseeable future. Especially for large institutional investors, even despite the FTX crash.”

- Renowned crypto trader Ton Vays has described how bulls can end a year-long bearish market. According to him, they should push the price of the main cryptocurrency to the November high, and this will start an upward rally. “I want to see a move to $23,000. If there's a rebound, we'll need to hold on to $19,000 and then come back for a further $23,000. This is 95% to 98% likely to show that a bull market has begun.”
The crypto trader who predicted the collapse of bitcoin in 2018 accurately does not rule out that bitcoin will soon face a new sale. “Another scenario is we will fall to $11,000. I believe the bull market will start right after that because I just don't believe bitcoin could fall even lower.” In any case, under any of these scenarios, Vays expects bitcoin to reach $23,000 later this year or early 2023.

- Small retail investors (up to 10 BTC) are becoming increasingly optimistic about bitcoin and have accumulated a record number of coins despite the FTX crash and the ongoing crisis, according to a report by the Glassnode analytics platform.
It is reported that “shrimp” investors (less than 1 BTC) added 96,200 coins worth $1.6 billion to their portfolios after the FTX crash in early November, which is a “record high balance increase”. And now they own 1.21 million BTC in total, which is equivalent to 6.3% of the current turnover of 19.2 million coins. Meanwhile, “crabs” (up to 10 BTC) have bought about 191,600 coins worth about $3.1 billion over the past 30 days, which is also a “convincing all-time high.”
While crabs and shrimps were accumulating a record number of bitcoins, large investors were selling them. According to Glassnode, bitcoin whales have released about 6,500 BTC ($107 million) to exchanges over the past month. However, this is a very small fraction of their total holdings of 6.3 million BTC ($104 billion), which suggests that the whales remain somewhat optimistic as well.

- Texas Governor Greg Abbott sees bitcoin's value to the world, adding that his state “wants to be at the center of it all.” Abbott urged bitcoin companies to set up operations in Texas, promising that anyone who does so will be rewarded with ease of doing business and a lack of regulatory controversy.
According to a recent SmartAsset study on cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US, Texas ranked fourth along with New Jersey, behind Nevada, followed by Florida and California.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November 2022. The services of social trading, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. The results show that November was not the best month for Forex traders.

- The maximum profit was received this month by a client from Western Asia, account No. 1652XXX, whose profit amounted to 24,789 USD. This solid result was achieved mainly in gold (XAU/USD), British pound (GBP/USD), and euro (EUR/USD) trades.
- Gold helped their compatriot, account No. 1638XXX, to take the second step of the podium with the result of 19,260 USD.
- The third place belongs to the owner of account No. 1664XXX from Southeast Asia. Using various trading instruments (GBP/NZD, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, etc.), this trader made a profit of 15,597 USD.

The passive investment services:

- “Veteran” signal, KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K, continues to grow in CopyTrading. Ie brought the profit to 277% in 576 days, but its maximum drawdown approached 67% in November. The signal provider had to increase the leverage to 1:200 for the first time to get out of it. The indicators of the second signal from the same provider, ­­KennyFXPro - The Cannon Ball, look like this: 244 days of lifespan, 79% profit. At the same time, its subscribers avoided stress: the leverage did not exceed 1:43, and the maximum drawdown remained at the same level, a little less than 13%.

Startups include the Jhunjhunu signal (profit 547%/max drawdown 61%/lifespan 55 days). Here, as usual, we recall that such profitability certainly looks very attractive, but the subscriber should definitely take into account risk factors such as drawdown and signal life.

- However, as practice shows, a long lifespan and good trading performance in the past do not guarantee against future losses. Thus, two leading accounts in the PAMM service suffered significant losses in November.

The KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been in existence since January 2021, and the maximum drawdown on it had not exceeded 20% until recently. However, the situation became more complicated last month, the drawdown exceeded 42%, and the account manager decided to close unprofitable positions. As a result, profits fell from 170% to 70% and returned to early 2022 levels. The TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account found itself in a similar situation: its maximum drawdown doubled as well, while profits fell from 130% to 44%.

It is clear that closing losing orders was a very difficult decision for these PAMM managers, and they made it in order to save at least part of the money. Perhaps, if they had acted the same as with the KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K account in CopyTrading, the losses would have been avoided, but the risk of a complete zeroing of deposits would have increased many times over. At the same time, it should be noted that the profit in both these accounts exceeds the interest on bank deposits many times even after the November losses.

Among the NordFX IB partners, TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission was accrued to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645XXX, for the second month in a row. It was 4,924 USD this time;
- the next is their colleague from Southeast Asia, account No. 1660XXX, who earned 4,173 USD in November;
- and, finally, a partner from Southern Asia, account No.1618ХХХ, who received 3,742 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

***

Attention! The NordFX Super Lottery New Year's Draw will take place in just a month, on January 04, 2023, where numerous cash prizes from 250 to 10,000 USD will be drawn among the company's clients.

You still have time to join it and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market

The DXY dollar index is down 5% over the past month. This is the largest monthly decline since September 2010. And the American currency lost more than 10% against the euro over the same period. EUR/USD was trading at 0.9541 back on October 28, and it reached the high of 1.0544 on December 2. There are several reasons for this, and the main one, of course, lies in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate forecasts.

The head of this organization, Jerome Powell, speaking on Wednesday, November 30, confirmed once again that the rate of rate growth in December may slow down. Market participants were finally convinced after these words that the rate would be increased not by 75 basis points (bp), but by only 50 bps in December. Thus, the futures market for the federal funds rate expects that there will be no increase at all in January, and the rate will be increased one or two times by 25 bps in February and March, as a result, its peak value will be 4.75-5.00%, and not 5.25%, as previously predicted. Then there will be a gradual decline and it will drop to 4.45% by December 2023.

Of course, this is only a forecast, but the market reacted to it with a sharp drop in US Treasuries. Thus, 10-year securities fell in yield to 3.5%, the lowest value since September 20, and two-year securities fell to 4.23%, which put strong pressure on the dollar. Moreover, the statement by the head of the Fed was made against the background of the publication of statistical data on the US economy. And it pointed, on the one hand, to a slowdown in inflation, and on the other hand, to the fact that the country's economy is quite successfully coping with rising interest rates and is not in danger of sliding into a deep recession. As a result, the risk appetite of the market began to grow, stock indices ( S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq ) went up, pulling cryptocurrencies with them, and the dollar continued to fall.

China also intervened in the dollar exchange rate. Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Sun Chunlang said that the omicron strain of coronavirus is becoming less pathogenic due to the increase in vaccinated people. Therefore, the strategy to combat the pandemic is entering a new stage. The authorities will even allow some infected people to spend a period of isolation at home rather than in the hospital. This shift towards less stringent anti-COVID measures also had a positive effect on investors' appetite for investments in Asia, and the dollar received another blow, losing its attractiveness as a defensive asset.

The Fed chief's speech about avoiding a “collapse of the economy” suggests that the regulator wants to bring inflation down to its target level, while minimizing the rise in unemployment. Based on this, reports on the US labor market will soon be even more important than before. And this was clearly shown by the market's reaction to the macro statistics released on Friday, December 2. The unemployment rate in the US remained at the same level and was fully in line with the forecast of 3.7%. But as for the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of the country (NFP), on the one hand, it turned out to be less than the October value (284K), but higher than the forecast of 200K, and amounted to 263K. The American currency reacted to this with a sharp increase, EUR/USD dropped to 1.0427. However, then the situation calmed down, everything returned to normal, and it finished at 1.0535.

Among the analysts surveyed, 50% of analysts expect the pair to continue growing to 1.0600, and 20% expect it to turn to the south. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east. It should be noted here that when moving to the medium-term forecast, the number of bearish supporters who expect the pair to drop below the parity level of 1.0000 increases sharply, up to 75%. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 25% is in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the 100% advantage is on the green side.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is located on horizon 1.0500, then there are levels and zones 1.0450-1.0467, 1.0380-1.0405, 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.964, 0.9580 and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0545, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

We are in for quite a lot of macro-economic statistics this week. There will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and ISM business activity in the US services sector on Monday, December 05. Data on Eurozone GDP in Q3 will be released on Wednesday, December 07. The number of applications for unemployment benefits will become known the next day, December 08, and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) - on December 09. In addition, market participants will be waiting for the speeches by the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, which are scheduled for December 05 and 08.

GBP/USD: If the Dollar Falls, the Pound Rises



Business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK increased slightly in November compared to September: the PMI rose from 46.2 to 46.5 points (against the forecast of 46.2). However, this did not have any noticeable effect on the quotes of GBP/USD: it moved almost in unison with EUR/USD, reacting to events in the US. The week resulted in the continuation of its growth from 1.2153 to 1.2310, the highest value since early August. The last chord of the week sounded a bit lower, at 1.2280.

Thus, the dollar weakened by about 1.2% against the pound over the week. And now GBP/USD is only a short distance away from the important level of 1.2450, which is the lower limit of the multi-year range from which it left at the beginning of this year. According to the strategists of the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale, this is where a strong resistance zone is located. “A retreat from this barrier could lead to a pullback phase,” they write. “The October high at 1.1500, which is also a 50DMA, is expected to be the first level of support if the decline continues.” If the pair fixes above 1.2450, Societe Generale predicts that the upward movement may last to 1.2750 and even higher, to the 1.3250-1.3300 zone.

Of course, as we have repeatedly written, the actions of the Central Banks of the leading countries and how quickly and how much they will raise key interest rates in a recession will be decisive for exchange rates. It is possible that the growth of inflationary pressure in the UK may cause a more active rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE). However, according to many economists, the regulator is likely to avoid drastic steps since excessive tightening of monetary policy could knock out the UK economy for a long time. Recall that the main events of the end of this year are expected on December 14 and 15, when the Fed, ECB and BoE meetings will be held almost at the same time.

The median forecast so far is similar to that for EUR/USD: 50% of experts are bullish, 30% are bearish, and the remaining 20% remain neutral. At the same time, when moving to a medium-term forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 80%. Among the trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% side with the greens, however, among the latter, 15% of them give signals that the pair is overbought. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2210, 1.2145, 1.2085, 1.2030, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720, 1.1600, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2290-1.2310, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2750.

Among the events concerning the UK economy, Monday 05 December will attract attention this week, when the November Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) and the UK Services PMI will be released. The change in the same indicator in the country's construction sector will be published the next day, on Wednesday, December 06.

USD/JPY: The Yen Thanks the Fed Once Again

The main trading range for USD/JPY for the last three weeks has been 137.50-140.60. It tried to move to a higher echelon on November 21, however, the published minutes of the Fed's last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting returned it to the set limits. As an analyst wrote at the time, “the whole world (except the US) thanks the Fed for the minutes of its meeting, which strengthened the dovish reversal, bringing down the dollar and US bond yields.”

Last week, the world thanked once again the Fed represented by its head, Jerome Powell whose speech knocked over the dollar on Wednesday, November 30 and the yield on US securities is even lower. USD/JPY broke through the lower border of the channel after the speech of this important official and rushed down, finding the local bottom at the level of 133.61.

The American currency could get a chance to win back losses as a result of the release of the official report on employment in the US on Friday, December 02. As mentioned above, the NFP value of 263K was higher than the 200K forecast, and USD/JPY jumped more than 230 pips to 135.98. However, then the market realized that unemployment remained at the same level, and these 263 thousand new jobs are the lowest since April 2021. The pair turned south again and finished at 134.33.

Recall that 10-year US Treasuries fell to 3.5% after Jerome Powell's “epic” speech, the lowest level since September 20. And according to the forecasts of ING strategists, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, if their yield ends 2023 at about 2.75%, USD/JPY may end up in the 125.00-130.00 zone at that moment, that is, where it was traded in May-August 2022.

In the meantime, the forecast for the near future looks rather vague. 45% of analysts vote for the bearish scenario, 35% for the bullish one, and 20% prefer to remain silent. Although, in this case, most experts (70%) expect a serious strengthening of the dollar in the medium term. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 100% are facing south, 25% of them are in the oversold zone. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 100:0 in favor of the red ones.

The nearest support level is located at 133.60 zone, followed by levels and zones 131.25-131.70, 129.60-130.00, 128.10-128.25, 126.35 and 125.00. Levels and zones of resistance are 135.20, 136.00, 136.65, 137.50-137.70, 138.00-138.30, 139.85, 140.60, 142.25, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

Thursday, December 08 can be marked in the macroeconomic calendar, when the data on Japan's GDP for Q3 will be released. According to forecasts, this indicator will remain at the same negative level: a drop of 0.3%, which will serve as another argument in favor of the super-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The next meeting of this Central Bank is scheduled for December 20, and it is likely to leave the interest rate on the yen unchanged at minus 0.1%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Cryptogeddon Instead of Crypto Winter

If the most frightening word for investors was "crypto winter" earlier, a new, much more terrible term has appeared in the current situation: "cryptogeddon" (similar to Armageddon, the place of the last and decisive battle between the forces of good and the forces of evil).

Everyone will probably agree that the outgoing year was terrible for the entire crypto industry. Macroeconomic events in early 2022, the collapse of Terra, which not only buried two cryptocurrencies from the TOP-10, but also caused a domino effect that destroyed many industry participants. A new shock in November, when one of the market giants, the FTX crypto exchange and related companies, collapsed. There are now rumors that cast doubt on the fortunes of the Digital Currency Group and its subsidiaries, two of which are Genesis and Grayscale.

The next victim of "cryptogeddon" was the BlockFi platform. It filed for bankruptcy last Monday. Creditors that will suffer the most from this will include Ankura Trust Company ($729 million), West Realm Shires Inc ($275 million), and even the SEC itself, the great and all-powerful US Securities and Exchange Commission ($30 million).

Miners are in huge trouble as the cost of mining bitcoin has fallen deep below the market price. Thus, according to MacroMicro estimates, it was $19,400 on November 29 at the price of $16.500 per BTC. This situation led to the fact that the losses of such an industry leader as Core Scientific Inc reached $1.7 billion, and it was also on the verge of bankruptcy.

(By the way, on December 6, Bitcoin will face the largest reduction in computation complexity this year. It takes more than 10 minutes now to find a block, and the expected correction will be from 6% to 9%).

Despite all the losses, the industry continues to hope for the best. The main forecasts are divided into 1) BTC/USD will fall again, but then it will turn up, and 2) the pair has already found the bottom and there is only a bright future ahead. Let's start with the first scenario.

So, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP investment company, shared his prediction that bitcoin will continue to fall, and its immediate goal is $10,000. This target is in line with options data from Deribit, which shows a large number of outstanding bitcoin put contracts, so called open interest, with an exercise price of $10,000 at the end of December.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is waiting for the bull market to start soon. But this will happen, in his opinion, after a noticeable fall and reaching a real bottom. We are following a simple signal: the intersection of the 200-day moving average and the bitcoin price chart,” the analyst advises. According to him, such an intersection will take place on December 25-27. It is then that we can expect the price to reach the bottom and the transition of BTC/USDto a steady growth. According to the expert's forecast, the bottom has not yet been reached so far. In addition to not crossing the BTC price with the 200-day SMA, Cowen also refers to the Puell Multiple indicator. The metric value at the minimum was about 0.3 in previous cycles. The indicator has so far dropped only to 0.375 this year.

Cowen pointed to the duration of bearish markets, which has historically been about a year, as an additional argument for the future turn. The 2014 cycle lasted 14 months, and the 2018 cycle lasted 12 months.

Renowned crypto trader Ton Vays has described how bulls can end a year-long bearish market. According to him, they should push the price of the main cryptocurrency to the November high, and this will start an upward rally. “I want to see a move to $23,000. If there's a rebound, we'll need to hold on to $19,000 and then come back for a further $23,000. This is 95% to 98% likely to show that a bull market has begun,” he writes.

However, the crypto trader who predicted the collapse of bitcoin in 2018 accurately does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon face a new sale. “Another scenario is we will fall to $11,000. I believe the bull market will start right after that because I just don't believe bitcoin could fall even lower.” In any case, under any of these scenarios, Vays expects bitcoin to reach $23,000 later this year or early 2023.

The second scenario, the beginning of a bearish trend, is hinted at by IntoTheBlock data. Analysts of this company note that bitcoin is currently experiencing a sharp backwardance: a situation where BTC futures are priced much lower compared to the current price of the asset in the regular (spot) market. This suggests that the market is under strong pressure from sellers. Traders are actively opening short positions, hoping that the price of bitcoin will continue to go down.

At the same time, IntoTheBlock points out that the times when futures contracts are backward tend to coincide with market lows, as was the case in March 2020 and May 2021. And it can also be a signal that the cryptocurrency has found a bottom now.

This version is supported by small (up to 10 BTC) retail investors. According to a report from analytics platform Glassnode, they are becoming increasingly optimistic about bitcoin and have accumulated a record number of coins despite the FTX crash and the ongoing crisis.

Since the FTX crash in early November, shrimp investors (less than 1 BTC) have reportedly added 96,200 coins worth $1.6 billion to their portfolios, a “record high balance increase.” And now they own 1.21 million BTC in total, which is equivalent to 6.3% of the current turnover of 19.2 million coins. Meanwhile, “crabs” (up to 10 BTC) have bought about 191,600 coins worth about $3.1 billion over the past 30 days, which is also a “convincing all-time high.”

While crabs and shrimps were accumulating a record number of bitcoins, large investors were selling them. According to Glassnode, bitcoin whales have released about 6,500 BTC ($107 million) to exchanges over the past month. However, this is a very small fraction of their total holdings of 6.3 million BTC ($104 billion), which suggests that the whales remain somewhat optimistic as well.

Many influencers are also optimistic about the future. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and well-known analyst, said that the tragic events of 2022 mentioned above are a “cleansing” moment for the industry, the next year should be better than this one, and bitcoin can still serve as an investment tool.

Michael Novogratz, CEO of the crypto investment company Galaxy Digital, also thinks that digital assets will not leave the market, even though the industry is experiencing a crisis of confidence. “There are 150 million people who have chosen to store part of their wealth in bitcoin. […] Therefore, bitcoin, ethereum will not disappear. Other cryptocurrencies will not either,” he said.

Novogratz expects the recovery of the crypto industry and its slow growth. “You will see how people like ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood will soon enter the crypto market and invest. I don't think this will be a quick recovery. It will most likely take a long time. It will not be easy to restore trust,” the businessman said. Cathy Wood herself, according to Yahoo, answered “yes” when asked whether she still sticks to her forecast of the BTC price of $1 million by 2030.

In the meantime, at the time of writing this review (Friday evening, December 02), BTC/USD is trading well below the coveted $1 million, in the $17,040 zone. Its correlation with stock market indices (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) has almost recovered. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 20 to 27 points in seven days and finally got out of the Extreme Fear zone into the Fear zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market has also grown slightly and stands at $0.859 trillion ($0.833 trillion a week ago).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- According to a Bloomberg poll, about 94% of respondents believe that the FTX bankruptcy will be followed by further turmoil as years of easy lending give way to a tougher business and market environment.

- The FTX collapse will continue to affect cryptocurrency market sentiment, leading to a drop in bitcoin's price to $5,000 in 2023. This is the conclusion reached by Standard Chartered. Eric Robertsen, chief strategist at this multinational bank, allowed interest to shift from the digital version of gold to its physical counterpart. The conclusion about the fall of bitcoin follows from his forecast for the growth of the precious metal by 30%, to $2,250 per troy ounce. Robertsen stressed that the proposed version of the development of events is not a forecast, but it only suggests a possible deviation from the current market consensus.
The described scenario is possible due to the suspension by the world's leading central banks of raising interest rates in 2023 after they have risen in recent months. An additional factor will be the expected continuation of a series of bankruptcies among major participants in the crypto industry with a loss of confidence in digital assets. “Gold will benefit from problems in the crypto industry in the future,” Nicholas Frappell, Global General Manager at ABC Refinery, agreed with Eric Robertsen.

- Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz maintained his forecast for the price of the first cryptocurrency to rise to $500,000 in a comment to Bloomberg Television. However, due to significant changes in the macroeconomic situation, it will now take bitcoin more than five years to achieve this goal. “The reason bitcoin dropped from $69,000 to $20,000 is [Fed Chairman] Jerome Powell’s decision to start fighting inflation with a series of rate hikes from 0% to 4%,” he explained. “For this reason, all assets that are considered inflation hedges have fallen in value.”
The founder of Galaxy Digital said in early October that bitcoin would resume growth after the Fed backed away from aggressively raising rates to fight inflation.

- According to a report by CertiK, a blockchain security company, fraudulent bots are rapidly gaining popularity on YouTube: the number of dubious videos increased sixfold in 2022. CertiK describes a wave of fraud through bots that promise instant profits and up to 10 times a day in its report dated December 1. The scam itself usually involves victims being asked to download virus software that is designed to steal their assets the moment they attempt to initiate a pre-transaction.
North Korean hackers of the Lazarus group, which spread the AppleJeus virus under the guise of a bot for cryptocurrency trading BloxHolder are among the attackers, according to IT analysts from Volexity. The extent of the cryptocurrency they stole is still unclear. However, it is already known that the AppleJeus virus is actively updated and encrypted using a special algorithm, which complicates its tracking by antivirus programs.

- Investors lost $10.16 billion in just one week in November as a result of the collapse of the second-largest crypto exchange in terms of capitalization, FTX. According to the figurative expression of analysts, this was not a “crypto winter”, but a “crypto massacre”. The FTX crisis was like a domino that led to the collapse of many other companies.
To complicate matters, between 73% and 81% of investors lost money due to investing in cryptocurrencies between 2015 and 2022. This is evidenced by data from a study conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). According to many experts, regulators will no longer be able to ignore the complaints of those who have lost their savings in such a situation and will have to move to proactive action.

- Peter Schiff, a well-known financier and investor, is widely known as a supporter of gold and an opponent of cryptocurrencies. He expressed confidence in his latest interview that the global inflation rate will rise significantly in 2023, and what is happening now is just the beginning. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency market should fall even more, unable to withstand such strong pressure.
Schiff called the rising inflation rate a certain tax on the population. He noted that every US dollar that the government spends must be paid by citizens in one way or another. The authorities are using a dishonest path. They simply print new money and then put it into circulation. When this happens, the price of everything people buy is constantly increasing. So instead of taking money through taxes, they're stealing purchasing power.

- Texas Senator Ted Cruz said that cryptocurrency mining is essential to the US energy system. First of all, miners can use energy which is excess in the extraction of oil and gas. When it comes to extreme weather conditions in the state, whether it's severe frost or drought, miners can also benefit the Texas power grid. The senator explained that the energy generated by mining can be used to heat households and businesses.
Cruz stressed that Texas creates favorable opportunities for the development of the cryptocurrency industry thanks to an abundance of cheap electricity. In addition, the state government supports free enterprise, and this attracts companies working with blockchain and digital assets. According to the politician, he likes bitcoin, and this is the only crypto asset in which he invests and buys it on a weekly basis.

- Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes that cryptocurrencies are now going through the last stage before reaching the bottom. However, he warned that it will be very difficult to survive this phase: “Normally, markets do not just form a V-bottom. They make it as hard as possible with a lot of volatility, taking money from all investors.”
Bloomberg analyst noted that there is good news as well. Thus, ethereum has grown 12 times compared to 2019 and is still growing. McGlone claims that ETH has strong support close to the current price level. According to his forecast, this coin will outperform all cryptocurrencies, thanks to growing demand and shrinking supply.

- According to Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, the market situation has stabilized slightly, and BTC bulls need now to break through an important resistance level in the $17,400-17,600 range. In this case, the price will continue moving towards $19,000 quite quickly. He noted that one of the first goals was to reach the $18,285 horizon. As for the price of ethereum, Van de Poppe believes that the key support level for this cryptocurrency is the price of $1,200.

- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has once again criticized cryptocurrency and digital assets. He stressed that some people can be fooled into buying anything. The head of the bank has previously called cryptocurrencies “decentralized Ponzi schemes” and urged to stay away from bitcoin. However, he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders that “decentralized finance and blockchain are real new technologies” and went on to promote the bank’s efforts to implement them. In addition, JPMorgan registered a trademark for its own crypto wallet at the end of November. the bank will provide services related to digital assets under the new brand, including the transfer and exchange of cryptocurrencies, as well as the processing of cross-border payments.

- According to PricePredictions machine learning algorithms, which include a number of technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD, BB, etc.), the price of bitcoin may rise in the near future. According to this forecast, the main cryptocurrency will reach $18,797 on December 31, 2022. It should be noted that this forecast is lower than the expectations of members of the CoinMarketCap crypto community, who believe that BTC will be trading at an average price of $19,788 by the end of the year.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings



Two key events await us next week. The first is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, December 14. Recall that the key interest rate on the dollar is 4.00% at the moment, and that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed on November 30 that the pace of rate growth may slow down in December. These words of his convinced market participants that the rate would be increased in December not by 75 basis points (bp), but by only 50 bp. The actual developments on December 14 will set the mood of the regulator for 2023. Naturally, an important role here will be played not only by the decision on the interest rate itself, but also by the economic forecasts of the FOMC and the press conference of the management of this organization following the meeting.

It is highly likely that the decision of the Committee members will be influenced by data on inflation in the US: the November values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced on the eve of the meeting, on Tuesday, December 13.

The second event is the ECB meeting on Thursday, December 15. The interest rate on the euro is 2.00% at the moment, and according to forecasts, the European regulator will also raise it by 50 bp, which will keep the advantage in favor of the US currency: 4.50% against 2.50%. As in the case of the Fed, the comments and forecasts of the ECB leaders, which will be made after this meeting, will also be important for market participants.

As for the past week, the DXY Dollar Index did not manage to win back at least some of the losses it has suffered since the end of September. This time it was hampered by statistics from China. On the one hand, China's manufacturing sector continues to deflate: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been falling by 1.3% for the second month in a row. On the other hand, inflation is slowing down: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November was 1.6% against 2.1% a month ago. In this situation, the Chinese government has taken a course of easing monetary policy (QE) to support the country's economy. A survey conducted by Bloomberg showed that the market expects the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates on the yuan as early as Q1 2023. Against this background, stock indices, primarily Asian ones, went up, and the dollar went down. Optimism over the easing of strict COVID-19 restrictions in China also supported the positive tone in equity markets.

Additional pressure on the US currency was exerted by statistics on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits became known on Thursday, December 08. This figure showed a slight increase from 226K to 230K, which was fully in line with the forecast. But repeated applications have reached a maximum over the past ten months: 1671K, which is also a signal for the Fed, pointing to problems in the economy.

On the contrary, European macro statistics looked good. Thus, the GDP of the Eurozone in Q3 turned out to be higher than the forecast, 0.3% vs. 0.2% (q/q) and 2.3% vs. 2.1% (y/y).

As a result, EUR/USD abandoned a deep correction and, having reached a local low of 1.0442 on December 07, reversed and rose to the level of 1.0587 on December 09. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan made modest adjustments to the prices at the very end of the working week, after which the pair finished at 1.0531.

50% of analysts count on its further growth, 25% expect the pair to turn south. The remaining 25% of experts point to the east. It should be noted here that when moving to a medium-term forecast, the number of bearish supporters who expect the pair to drop below the parity level of 1.0000 increases sharply, up to 75%.

The picture is different from the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 10% is in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the 100% advantage is on the green side.

The nearest support for EUR/USD is located at the 1.0500 horizon, then there are levels and zones 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, followed by the parity zone 0.9950-1.0010. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0545-1.0560, 1.0595-1.0620, 1.0745-1.0775, 1.0865, 1.0935.

We will see other important macro statistics next week in addition to the above. Thus, data on consumer inflation (CPI) and economic sentiment (ZEW) in Germany will be released on Tuesday, December 13. And business activity indicators in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the Eurozone (PMI), as well as the November value of the European Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known on Friday, December 16.

GBP/USD: Ahead of the Bank of England Meeting

Not only the ECB, but also the Bank of England (BoE) will decide on the interest rate on Thursday, December 15. It should be noted that the regulator of the United Kingdom was one of the first among the G10 Central Banks, following the Fed, to curtail the policy of quantitative easing (QE). It raised the pound interest rate by 75 bps in November. However, it is expected that like the ECB and the Fed, it will raise it by only 50 bp in December, after which it will reach 3.50%. According to a survey conducted by Reuters, 96% of economists have voted for this step. And only 4% of them insist on 75 bp.

Most respondents believe that the recession will be long and shallow. According to forecasts, the economy contracted by 0.2% in Q3 2022 (exact data will be known on December 12) and will decrease by another 0.4% in Q4. The fall in the first three quarters of 2023 may be 0.4%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

As for inflation, the survey conducted by the BoE showed that the fears of the UK population about it have slightly decreased. If we talk about economists' forecasts, it is expected that in it will reach a peak of 10.9% in Q4, and then it will decline. The current value is more than five times higher than the target level of 2.0%. And the Bank of England will be forced to continue to raise the rate to fight inflation, despite the threat of a deepening recession. It is predicted that BoE will raise it in Q1 and Q2 2023, another 50 bp and 25 bp, respectively, to 4.25%.

GBP/USD, as well as EUR/USD, has been developing an upward trend since the end of September taking advantage of the weakness of the dollar. In addition, it is being pushed up by the end of the fiscal micro-crisis and the Bank of England's actions to tighten monetary policy and support the British government bond market. GBP/USD reached its maximum value on December 05 at the height of 1.2344, however, it did not go further north and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2260 in anticipation of the decisions of the coming week.

Strategists at the German Commerzbank consider the current situation only a temporary respite and expect increased pressure on the British currency. “At present,” they write, “the relief that the fiscal crisis has been brought under control prevails, and there are no signs of a further worsening of the energy crisis. In our opinion, this is only a temporary respite for the pound. The deteriorating economic outlook, relatively prudent monetary policy […] and continued high inflation continue to put major pressure on the pound.”

The median forecast for the near term copies the forecast for EUR/USD in full: 50% of experts side with the bulls, 25% side with the bears, and the remaining 25% prefer to remain neutral. At the same time, there is a slight difference when moving to the medium-term forecast: the number of bear supporters here is 10% higher, 85%.

The readings of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 also copy the readings of their counterparts for EUR/USD: all 100% are on the green side, and 10% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.

Levels and support zones for the pair are 1.2210-1.2235, 1.2150, 1.2085-1.2105, 1.2030, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2290-1.2310, 1.2345, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2750.

As already mentioned, Monday, December 12, when the country's GDP data will be published, attracts attention this week, as for the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom. Data on unemployment and wages will arrive the following day, that on consumer prices (CPI) will become known on Wednesday, December 14, and on retail sales and business activity in the UK - on Friday, December 16. And of course, a special emphasis is on December 15, when the Bank of England will issue its verdict on the interest rate.

USD/JPY: What Can Help the Yen

USD/JPY rose from the Dec 02 low of 133.61 to 137.85 last week, slightly above the strong 137.50 support/resistance zone. The last chord of the week sounded at 136.60.

The future of the pair will continue to depend on the difference in interest rates between the US and Japan. If the Fed remains at least moderately hawkish and the BoJ remains ultra-dovey, the dollar will continue to dominate the yen. The threat of new foreign exchange intervention by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the same as it was on November 10, seems unlikely at current levels. Raising the key rate could help, but it is very likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave it unchanged at its meeting on December 20: at the negative level of -0.1%. A radical change in monetary policy can be expected only after April 8 next year. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end hs term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a tougher position. Although this is not a fact.

Another hope is for renewed concerns about China's economic prospects. “Weak growth rates and a clear decline in bond yields,” economists from the ING banking group believe, “should lead to the fact that safe currencies, such as the yen, will begin to show superiority,” and this will support the Japanese currency.

Analysts' forecast for the near future is bearish: 50% of them vote for the pair to fall, the remaining 50% have taken a neutral position. However, in the medium term, most experts (60%) are shifting their gaze from south to north, expecting a serious strengthening of the dollar and the return of the pair to the 145.00-150.00 zone. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 90% look south, 10% look north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% versus 15% in favor of the red ones.

The nearest support level is located at 136.00 zone, followed by levels and zones 134.10-134.35, 133.60, 131.25-131.70, 129.60-130.00, 128.10-128.25, 126.35 and 125.00. Levels and resistance zones are 137.50-137.70, 138.00-138.30, 139.00, 139.50-139.75, 140.60, 142.25, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00.

The calendar could mark Wednesday December 14, when the values of the Sentiment Indices of Large Manufacturers and Non-Manufacturing Tankan Companies for Q4 2022 will be announced. The publication of other macro indicators of the Japanese economy is not expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Christmas Rally After Crypto Massacre

We titled the last review “Cryptogeddon Instead of Crypto Winter” (by analogy with Armageddon, the place of the last and decisive battle between the forces of good and the forces of evil). There is another “bloody” term now: “crypto massacre”, which characterizes what happened as a result of the collapse of the second most capitalized crypto exchange, FTX. Investors lost $10.16 billion in just one week in November. This crisis was like a domino, which led to the collapse of many other companies. About 94% of respondents believe the FTX bankruptcy will be followed by further turmoil as years of easy lending give way to a tougher business and market environment, according to a Bloomberg survey. To complicate matters , between 73% and 81% of investors lost money due to investing in cryptocurrencies between 2015 and 2022. This is evidenced by data from a study conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The price of bitcoin is consolidating around $17,000 at the moment, and the readings of the SMA100 and SMA200 indicators on the four-hour chart have converged almost at one point. BTC/USD is kept from falling by the dollar that has sagged in recent weeks. Markets froze in anticipation of December 14, when the Fed will make a decision on the interest rate. And it, in turn, depends on the data on inflation in the US, which will arrive the day before. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Economic Forecasts will also play a significant role in the dollar dynamics.

Optimists, including crypto communities such as Credible Crypto, Moustache and Dave the Wave, expect this data to positively influence the market's risk appetite, and the Christmas rally will push bitcoin to $20,000. According to the expectations of members of the crypto community CoinMarketCap, BTC will trade at an average price of $19,788 by the end of the year.

PricePredictions' machine learning algorithms, which include a number of technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD, BB, etc.), indicate a price of $1,000 lower. According to their metrics, the main cryptocurrency will reach $18,797 on December 31, 2022.

However, not everything is so rosy and unambiguous. For example, Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone believes that cryptocurrencies are now going through the last stage before reaching the bottom. However, he warns that it will be very difficult to survive this phase: “Normally, markets do not just form a V-bottom. They make it as hard as possible with a lot of volatility, taking money from all investors.”

According to Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, the pair will face many difficulties on the way to $19,000. The bulls will need to break through the important resistance level in the $17,400-17,600 range and then try to reach the $18,285 horizon.

As for the price of ethereum, Van de Poppe believes that the key support level for this cryptocurrency is the price of $1,200. Mike McGlone is of the same opinion. According to his calculations, ETH has strong support close to the current price level.

There is very little time left until the end of the year, and then we will find out who was more accurate in their forecasts. In the meantime, at the time of writing the review (Friday evening, December 09), ETH/USDis trading around $1,260, and BTC/USD - $17,100. The total capitalization of the crypto market has not changed much over the week and is $0.852 trillion ($0.859 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen only 1 point in seven days, from 27 to 26 and still remains in the Fear zone.

And to conclude the review, a few words about longer-term forecasts. Such popular Twitter analysts as Bluntz and Korinek_Trades do not rule out BTC/USD falling to $15,000 or even $12,000 in Q1 2023.

The picture drawn by Standard Chartered economists is even bleaker. They expect that the collapse of FTX will continue to affect the mood of the crypto market, the series of bankruptcies of large industry participants will continue, which will lead to a further loss of confidence in digital assets. As a result, bitcoin's price could fall to $5,000 during 2023. Standard Chartered Chief Strategist Eric Robertsen allowed investor interest to switch from the digital version of gold to its physical counterpart and the price of the precious metal to rise to $2,250 per troy ounce. At the same time, Robertsen emphasized that the proposed scenario is not a forecast, but only suggests a possible deviation from the current market consensus.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz looked farthest into the future and saw a light at the end of the tunnel. In a comment to Bloomberg Television, he maintained his forecast that the price of the first cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000. However, it will now take more than five years for bitcoin, in his opinion, to achieve this goal due to significant changes in the macroeconomic situation and the aggressive actions of the Fed.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- Following the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the US Federal Reserve will decide on the interest rate on December 14. Although its current level is still far from the expected peak of 5-5.25%, the US Central Bank may raise the rate not by 0.75%, but by 0.5% this time. Such a decision will signal the easing of monetary policy and that additional volumes of dollar liquidity may appear on the market. According to experts, this will have a positive impact on the prices of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. If bitcoin settles above the $18,000 area in the near future, some experts estimate that it is likely to reach an extreme of $20,000 by the end of December.
In such a situation, the bitcoin price will again be on a growth parabola, according to an analyst known as Plan B. According to their latest forecast, BTC could reach $100,000 in 2023. Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco News, also believes BTC is close to developing a sustained bullish rally in the current environment as strong buyers have stepped in.

- Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the 30-year-old founder of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, has been arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. prosecutors filed eight felony charges against him. According to law enforcement officers, SBF colluded with partners to deceive, misappropriate funds from clients of the trading platform and use them to pay the expenses and debts of their companies. As a result of the leak of deposits, an $8 billion hole was created on the exchange's accounts. The charges also include money laundering and violations of US political campaign finance laws. Earlier, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also accused SBF in defrauding FTX investors. According to the representative of the prosecutor's office, Bankman-Fried faces up to 115 years in prison in the aggregate of all criminal cases.

- ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood said that Sam Bankman-Fried has always disliked bitcoin because it is transparent and decentralized, and he could not control it, including during the crisis caused by opaque centralized players.
Despite the difficult situation caused by the bankruptcy of FTX, the head of ARK Invest remains optimistic. In her opinion, DeFi will be further developed, as investors have learned how important fully transparent decentralized networks are thanks to the crisis. “When centralized crypto companies went bankrupt, investors who invested in transparent distributed networks saw what was happening. They were able to withdraw their assets on time. Even those who used high margin leverage were able to survive,” Catherine Wood said.
Recall that, in addition to the FTX bankruptcy in November, the crypto industry has experienced a number of major shocks this year. First of all, this is the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May. Compute North, Voyager Digital, Celsius Network, Three Arrows Capital, and Blockfi also filed for bankruptcy. According to some estimates, approximately several million customers lost billions of dollars as a result of all these events.

- Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the BitMEX crypto exchange, said that the first cryptocurrency reached the lowest level of the current cycle, as almost all “irresponsible organizations” ran out of coins to sell. Hayes explained that when facing financial difficulties, centralized credit companies often borrow first and then sell off their BTC holdings, followed by a collapse. “When you look at the balance of any of these ‘heroes’, you won’t see bitcoin there. They sold it before they went bankrupt."
This is how Hayes explains the reasons for the fall of the first cryptocurrency even before the bankruptcy of centralized credit companies. At the same time, the expert believes that the period of large-scale liquidations is over. In his opinion, the digital asset market expects a partial recovery in 2023 amid the next launch of the “printing press” by the US Federal Reserve.

- According to Bloomberg's leading strategist Mike McGlone, bitcoin is likely to outshine gold. The popular analyst added that the flagship cryptocurrency is currently only four times more volatile than the precious metal, which is negligible compared to what it was in 2018.
McGlone called next year the bitcoin market and a time of shine after a year and a half of direct downtrends. This will happen due to the fact that the Central Banks, primarily the Fed, will move from an aggressive tightening of monetary policy to its easing. If this does not happen, Bloomberg strategist says, the world could plunge even deeper into a recession with negative consequences for all risky assets.
Max Keiser, a former trader and now TV host and filmmaker, also believes that BTC will certainly catch up in 2023 and may stage an epic rally before the 2024 halving. In his opinion, the growth of the flagship cryptocurrency will continue over the next decades.

- The FTX crash gave additional arguments to those US officials who are skeptical about cryptocurrencies. For example, Senator Jon Tester, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has recently said that digital assets failed the “tightness” test. “I haven't found anyone who could explain to me what their value is,” the senator says. “The problem is that if we regulate them, people will start to think that crypto assets are really legal.”
The decision of the US authorities to regulate cryptocurrencies will determine the further behavior of institutional players and large owners of bitcoins, which are often the same persons. So far, 80% of the losses that occur in the market of the main cryptocurrency are caused by the sale of BTC by “whales”, most wallets with a balance of more than 10 thousand BTC continue to sell more than buy digital gold since mid-July.

- The proportion of US adults who have ever invested in cryptocurrencies increased from 3% in 2020 up to 13% in June 2022. This is evidenced by a study conducted by JPMorgan analysts. The specialists of the financial conglomerate analyzed a sample of 5 million accounts and found that the majority of retail users invested in digital assets for the first time close to the price peak. The average purchase price for their first cryptocurrency is $42,400-$45,500. At the same time, most low-income investors bought at a higher price.
Retail investors' inflows of money into crypto accounts have far exceeded outflows from them over the past few years. The cash flow has become more balanced against the background of the market decline in the first half of 2022. At the same time, the researchers found that the average investment is relatively small: about $620, which is approximately equal to a weekly salary. Only 15% of investors have invested more than their monthly earnings in digital assets. JPMorgan analysts also noted that Asians with high incomes are most likely to invest in cryptocurrencies.

- Twitter's new CEO Elon Musk managed to silence cryptocurrency spam bots. The businessman had promised to solve the problem with a huge number of advertising messages before buying the social network and has already started working in this direction. The volume of mailings has decreased significantly, but Elon is not going to stop there.
“My guess is that there are a small number of people running a huge army of bots and trolls. Today [December 11] we will block IP addresses of known violators. Although this should have been done much earlier,” Musk said. Twitter will now immediately blacklist the IP addresses of spammers, so they won't be able to use the social network for a long time using the VPN service or the Tor browser. In addition, Elon Musk promised to punish all scammers, but has not yet said exactly how.
Dogecoin creator Billy Markus, known under the pseudonym Shibetoshi Nakamoto, has confirmed the effectiveness of anti-spam measures. After Musk announced the blocking of IP addresses, only one bot responded to Marcus' post instead of the usual 50. Thus, the social network has neutralized almost all spammers.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

EUR/USD: The Fed Doesn't Want to be Dovish. The ECB Either.

The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The US inflation data produced a bombshell effect on the eve of this event, on Tuesday, December 13. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the forecast at 7.3%, fell in November from 7.7% to 7.1% (y/y), reaching its lowest level in almost a year, while core inflation fell from 6.3% to 6.0%. As a result, the market decided that since things were going so well, it was time for the Fed to turn from hawk to dove. Or at least ease their monetary policy significantly. Based on these expectations, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell from 3.60% to 3.43%, and the DXY Dollar Index peaked and fell to its lowest levels over the past six months, from 105.07 to 103.60 points. Accordingly, stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) flew up, and EUR/USD jumped to 1.0672.

The feast of risk appetites and the glee of opponents of the dollar did not last long. The FOMC raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points (bp) to 4.5% at its meeting. That is, exactly as market participants expected. Surprises were expected at the subsequent press conference, which showed that the US Central Bank is still hawkish. Fed chief Jerome Powell noted that the regulator will keep rates at their peak until they are sure that the decline in inflation has become a sustainable trend. The base rate could be raised to 5.1% in 2023 and remain so high until 2024. (Recall that 4.6% was mentioned as the peak rate in the September statement). According to Jerome Powell, the Fed understands that this will trigger a recession, but is willing to pay that price to control inflation. The situation turned around 180 degrees after such statements: DXY went up, stock indices flew down, and EUR/USD fell by more than 140 points.

The last meeting of the European Central Bank this year was also held last week, on Thursday, December 15. The ECB, as well as the Fed, raised the interest rate by 50 bp: up to 2.5%, which fully met the forecasts. ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as her overseas counterpart, showed a hawkish attitude at the press conference and made it clear that quantitative tightening (QT) in the Eurozone will not end there: the euro interest rate will face several more increases in 2023. The ECB also plans to start reducing its balance sheet from March. At the moment, the gap between the dollar and euro rates is 200 bp (4.5% and 2.5%, respectively). The swap market expects that the European regulator may raise its rate by another 100 bp in the coming year, which will provide some support for EUR/USD. Read our upcoming reviews to find out what forecasts leading financial institutions give regarding its quotes.

The data on business activity in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the Eurozone (PMI), as well as the November value of the European Consumer Price Index (CPI) were published at the very end of the last week, on Friday, December 16. Data on consumer inflation did not have a significant impact on market sentiment: on the one hand, CPI in annual terms fell from 10.6% to 10.1%, and on the other hand, it turned out to be higher than the forecast of 10.0%. After the release of these macro statistics, the pair placed the last chord at 1.0590.

40% of analysts expect the euro to strengthen in the coming days and EUR/USD to grow, 50% expect Santa Claus to help the US currency. The remaining 10% of experts do not expect either the first or the second from the pair. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. As for the oscillators, 75% are colored green, 10% are set to neutral gray and 15% stand out against this background with a bright red color. Trend indicators also have an advantage on the green side, these are 80%, and 20% are on the red side. The nearest support for EUR/USD is at the 1.0560 horizon, followed by levels and zones at 1.0500, 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, followed by the parity zone 0.9950-1.0010. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0620, 1.0675-1.0700, 1.0740-1.0775, 1.0865, 1.0935.

Next week's calendar includes Thursday December 22 for the release of 3Q US GDP data, and Friday December 23 for the release of orders for capital goods and durables, as well as the core US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index. .

Attention! Christmas and New Year holidays fall on weekends this year; however, we strongly advise you read the trading schedule for this period, it is published on the NordFX website in the Company News section.

GBP/USD: The Market No Longer Trusts the Bank of England

Even more disappointment than EUR/USD awaited the bulls on the British pound. Having reached a six-month high of 1.2450 on December 14, GBP/USD then fell to 1.2119 and ended the weekly session at 1.2160.

There were quite a lot of statistics on the economy of the United Kingdom Last week, and they looked diverse: sometimes green, sometimes red. The country's GDP grew by 0.5% and was higher than the forecast of 0.4%. The manufacturing sector also rose to 0.7% after the zero dynamics in September. Such an important indicator of inflation as CPI was 10.7% in November (it was at the highest level since November 1981 - 11.1% a month ago). But retail sales fell to 0.4% in November against 0.9% in October. The unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.7%. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of the UK fell to 44.7 in December against 46.5 in November. And in the services sector, on the contrary, it rose to 50.0 compared to the November value of 48.8 and the forecast of 48.5.

It seems that such multi-vector statistics have greatly confused market participants, and they focused not on the pound, but on the US dollar. Although the Bank of England (BoE) also issued its verdict on the interest rate last week. Like the Fed and the ECB, the regulator raised it by 50 bp up to 3.5% per annum (14-year maximum). However, BoE's statements turned out to be more dovish than those of their colleagues. According to the regulator, inflation may have already reached its peak. And two out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee considered that interest rates are already high enough and it is time to ease price pressures.

Prior to this meeting, quotes expected a maximum rate increase of up to 4.6%. After the meeting, the swap market lowered its forecast to 4.5% by August (that is, a total increase of another 100 bp). As for the survey of market participants conducted recently by the Bank of England, the median expectations are even lower here: only 4.25% with a peak in March 2023.

These forecasts put strong pressure on the British currency. Therefore, according to Commerzbank economists, the pound does not have much potential for recovery. “After the Bank of England hesitated for several months, the market now believes that it is the least trustworthy thing to suddenly become a mega hawk,” they write. “So, the pound has no chance against either the euro or the dollar.”

As for the short term, the median forecast for GBP/USD looks quite neutral here: 45% of experts side with the bulls, the same number side with the bears, and the remaining 10% prefer to decline to comment.

The readings of the indicators on D1 look mixed as well. Among the oscillators, 30% are colored green, 25% are red and 45% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have a ratio of 65% to 35% in favor of the green ones. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2085-1.2115, 1.2030, 1.1940, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720. When the pair moves north, the pair will face resistance at the levels of 1.2200-1.2225, 1.2270, 1.2330-1.2345, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700 and 1.2750.

Among the events related to the United Kingdom economy this week, we can highlight Thursday, December 22, when we will find out what happened to the country's GDP in Q3 2022. We also pay attention to the early closing of trading in the UK on Friday, December 23, which, of course, is associated with the upcoming Christmas.

USD/JPY: What to Expect from the Bank of Japan

Like previous pairs, USD/JPY reacted to both US inflation data and statements by the Fed Chairman. But, unlike EUR/USD and GBP/USD, this pair has not gone beyond the side corridor for the last two weeks. Its boundaries can be designated as 134.25-137.85, and timid attempts to break through in one direction or another can be ignored. This balance is most likely due to the fact that both the dollar and the yen are safe-haven currencies. Of course, the global advantage, thanks to the difference in interest rates, is on the side of the dollar. But, having carried out a number of foreign exchange interventions, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has managed in recent months not only to stop the advance of the American currency, but also to significantly push it back.

As we have already mentioned, the future of the pair will continue to depend on the difference in interest rates between the US and Japan. If the Fed remains at least moderately hawkish and the BOJ remains ultra-dovish, the dollar will continue to dominate the yen. The threat of new foreign exchange intervention by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the same as it was on November 10, seems unlikely at current levels. Raising the key rate could help, but it is very likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave it unchanged at its meeting on December 20: at the negative level of -0.1%. A radical change in monetary policy can be expected only after April 8 next year. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end his term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a tougher position. Although this is not a fact.

Another hope is for renewed concerns about China's economic prospects. By the way, the People's Bank of China will also make its decision on the interest rate on the yuan on Tuesday, December 20.

USD/JPY finished at 136.70 on Friday, December 16. Analysts' forecast for the near future is exactly the same as the forecast for GBP/USD: 45%/45%/10%. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 25% look south, 40% look north, and 35% look east. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 60% versus 40% in favor of the red ones. The nearest support level is located at 136.00 zone, followed by levels and zones 134.40, 133.60, 131.25-131.70, 129.60-130.00, 128.10-128.25, 126.35 and 125.00. Levels and resistance zones are 137.50-137.70, 138.00-138.30, 139.00, 139.50-139.75, 140.60, 142.25, 143.75. The goal of the bulls to renew the October 21, 2022 high, and to gain a foothold above the height of 152.00 seems realistic only in a very distant future.

In addition to the mentioned interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan, the calendar also includes Friday, December 23, when the Report from the BoJ Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published. Market participants will try to catch at least small hints of changes in this policy. However, the chances of this happening are close to zero.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Santa Claus Is the Only Hope



The results of the Fed meeting seem to have greatly tempered investors' risk appetites. If stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) were growing throughout the first half of the week, and after the publication of inflation data in the US, they just soared up, dragging crypto asset prices, they all went into the red after the Fed meeting, on Wednesday evening, November 14. Amid fears of a global recession, the decline continued on Thursday and Friday. The local maximum for BTC/USD was fixed at $18.381, but it met the end of the working week much lower, in the $16.830 zone.

The general situation in the crypto industry does not help the growth of prices either. Recall that, in addition to the bankruptcy of FTX in November, it has experienced a number of major shocks this year. First of all, this is the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May. Compute North, Voyager Digital, Celsius Network, Three Arrows Capital, and Blockfi also filed for bankruptcy. According to some estimates, approximately several million customers lost billions of dollars as a result of all these events.

The events of recent days are not encouraging either. Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of crypto exchange FTX, has been arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. Attorney's Office filed eight felony charges against him. According to the representative of the prosecutor's office, Bankman-Fried faces up to 115 years in prison in the aggregate of all criminal cases. Market participants were also alarmed by the strange, to put it mildly, financial report by FTX's main competitor, the Binance exchange. It contained only three indicators, which caused bewilderment and criticism from representatives of the accounting community.

There is very little time left until the end of this year, and it is only Santa Claus Rally, a phenomenon when stock indices suddenly begin to go up at the very end of December, that can help the growth of bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. This Rally usually starts on the last Monday of the month and lasts for seven trading days. However, sometimes Santa Claus decides to help not risky assets at all, but the dollar. And then, instead of the North Pole, they head south. (You can read more about Santa Claus Rally on NordFX's Useful Articles section).

Some experts hope that bitcoin will still be able to gain a foothold above the $18,000 area in the coming days. Then, in their opinion, it will most likely reach an extreme of $20,000 by the end of the year.

In such a situation, the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will again be on a growth parabola, according to a well-known analyst under the nickname Plan B. According to their latest forecast, BTC could reach $100,000 in 2023. Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco News, also believes BTC is close to developing a sustained bullish rally in the current environment as strong buyers have stepped in.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, expressed a similar point of view, although his arguments differ from those of Jim Wyckoff. Hayes believes that the first cryptocurrency has reached the low of the current cycle, as almost all “irresponsible organizations” have run out of coins to sell. He explained that when facing financial difficulties, centralized credit companies often borrow first and then sell off their BTC holdings, followed by a collapse. “When you look at the balance of any of these ‘heroes’, you won’t see bitcoin there. They sold it before they went bankrupt." That is why, according to Hayes, the fall in the quotes of the first cryptocurrency precedes such bankruptcies. At the same time, the expert believes that the period of large-scale liquidations is over.

ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood also spoke negatively about centralized companies and positively about DeFi. In her opinion, DeFi will be further developed, as investors have learned how important fully transparent decentralized networks are thanks to the crisis. “When centralized crypto companies went bankrupt, investors who invested in transparent distributed networks saw what was happening. They were able to withdraw their assets on time. Even those who used a large margin leverage were able to survive,” said Catherine Wood. And she added that Sam Bankman-Fried has always disliked bitcoin because it is transparent and decentralized, and he could not control it, including during the crisis provoked by opaque centralized players.

According to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, the digital asset market expects a partial recovery in 2023 amid another launch of the US Federal Reserve's printing press. Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, also expects new flows of cash liquidity from the Central Bank, he called next year the bitcoin market and a time of shine after a year and a half of direct downward trends. However, at the same time, the analyst added that if the easing of monetary policy does not happen, the world may plunge even deeper into a recession with negative consequences for all risky assets.

Max Keiser, a former trader and now TV host and filmmaker, also believes that BTC will certainly catch up in 2023 and may stage an epic rally before the 2024 halving. In his opinion, the growth of the flagship cryptocurrency will continue over the next decade. And, as Cathie Wood stated, it will reach a price of $1 million per coin by 2030.

In the meantime, at the time of writing this review (Friday evening, December 16), ETH/USD is trading around $1,200, while BTC/USD is trading at $16,830. The total capitalization of the crypto market for the week decreased by almost 4.0% and amounted to $0.818 trillion ($0.852 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown by only 3 points in seven days, from 26 to 29, and still remains in the Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- The SEC and CFTC may need to consider banning cryptocurrencies. Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the US Senate Banking Committee, said this on NBC. “We [legislators] want them [regulators] to do what they need […] perhaps by banning them [cryptocurrencies]. Although this scenario is extremely difficult, since they [digital assets] will go offshore, and few people can predict what this measure will lead to,” the senator explained.
Sherrod Brown backed Jon Tester, who also sits on the banking committee. The legislator stated on December 12 that cryptocurrencies have not passed the “gut check”, and therefore there is no reason for them to exist.
Brown admitted that he has been “educating” senators and the public on the “dangers of cryptocurrencies” over the past 18 months, calling for immediate and aggressive action. “I've already reached out to the Treasury and Secretary [Janet Yellen] and asked for a nationwide assessment through all the various regulatory agencies [...] The SEC has been particularly aggressive,” he explained. Brown cited the collapse of FTX as justification for the position, adding that this is only part of a huge problem.

- According to the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler, digital assets are too volatile and speculative, which puts investors at great risk. “It is important that cryptocurrency issuers, as well as other intermediaries, operate in accordance with clear rules,” he said. “Although the industry usually does not pose a threat to the traditional financial sector, we must be vigilant to prevent such a situation from developing.”
Gensler noted that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) was able to effectively identify gaps in the regulation of the crypto industry. The FSOC has recommended passing bills that would empower federal financial regulators to control the spot market for crypto assets, similar to stock markets.

- Michael Burry, the hero of The Big Short, who predicted the 2007-8 mortgage crisis, called audits of the balances of cryptocurrency exchanges FTX, Binance and others pointless. This is how the investor commented on the news about the termination of services for crypto companies by the French auditor Mazars.
Mazars's audit of Binance's bitcoin balances was actively criticized by experts who said that it was not a full audit and that its results did not convince users of the safety of users' assets. Following the criticism, Binance faced a significant outflow of funds. The exchange also had problems withdrawing the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin on some networks. Against this background, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was forced to refute rumors about a lack of liquidity on the platform.

- Edward Snowden, a former NSA and US CIA officer who now lives in Russia, proposed his candidacy for the post in response to Twitter owner Elon Musk's post about the search for the social network's CEO. “I accept payment in bitcoin,” Snowden wrote.
Elon Musk posted that he needed a CEO who could "keep Twitter alive." Earlier, the billionaire conducted a survey in his profile about the need for him to resign from the post of head of the social network. 17.5 million users participated in it, the majority of them (57.5%) voted for Musk's resignation, and he promised to follow the results of the poll.

- Elon Musk had admitted back in August that a recession could trigger a number of bankruptcies, and the period itself could continue until the end of 2023. Although the billionaire admitted that “making macroeconomic forecasts ¬is a lost cause,” he still assumed that the upcoming crisis will be “relatively mild”. In particular, he referred to the "relatively low debt levels for most companies." This allows us to hope that the recession will remain in the range of "mild to moderate, lasting about eighteen months," Musk said at the time.
Mike Novogratz, the head of the venture capital company Galaxy Digital, adheres to similar deadlines. In his opinion, bitcoin will continue to remain in the zone of uncertainty as long as the US Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflationary risks. He also suggested that it is high time for the crypto market to pause due to excessive activity.
Novogratz called the takeover of the American crypto exchange Coinbase “by some big traditional financier” one of the worst recession scenarios. Coinbase has long been cutting operating expenses in anticipation of worsening business in 2023.

- According to a number of analysts, there are currently no significant prerequisites for the growth of the bitcoin rate in the global cryptocurrency market. On the contrary, the anxiety of traders against the background of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange may lead to a collapse in its value. According to RBC, “investors are now actively withdrawing funds from the Binance exchange, and in record volumes. The US intends to strictly regulate the crypto market and citizens' transactions. So we should expect that bitcoin will not grow, but will come to its lows soon. It is possible that its value will be at the level of $10,000 in the first half of 2023, or even in Q1.”
The tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy may also put pressure on the bitcoin rate. Its plans to raise the interest rate above 5.00% next year may limit the potential for BTC to rise in value. And as analysts at the British investment company AJ Bell predict, the main cryptocurrency rate will be very volatile in 2023.

- Given the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, the crypto market is likely to face another collapse in quotes in the near future. This conclusion was reached by analysts at the Nansen research portal, considering the correlation between the S&P500 index and cryptocurrencies. Experts expect that the US recession will affect not only stocks, but also digital assets. At the same time, it is possible that this fall will be the last in the current cycle (until 2024). However, Nansen experts did not specify how soon it will happen and how long the market will be at the bottom.

- Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone shares the opposite point of view. According to him, despite the fact that “the global benchmark digital asset was defeated in 2022”, it is ready to once again lean towards faster growth. The expert believes that the global economy may continue to fall in 2023, but BTC is likely to grow and become more actively used as digital security. The correlation of the digital asset with the Nasdaq index can be a supporting factor in this matter.
Mike McGlone had earlier predicted that the "macroeconomic global winter" could last up to three years. At the same time, he expects that the crypto industry will become stronger than ever in the next few years, and the bitcoin exchange rate will reach $100,000, and Ethereum at $6,000 by 2025.

- To circumvent sanctions imposed due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Parliament is studying the possibility of issuing a gold-backed cryptocurrency that is stored in the country's Far East. This is not the first initiative on the topic of gold backing of digital assets. Economists at Vnesheconombank of the Russian Federation proposed issuing a gold-backed stablecoin called the “golden ruble” last June. In their opinion, it will be impossible to block transactions with the crypto-gold ruble, since the exchange rate will be tied to the gold rate on the world market.

- The research company Solidus Labs has published a report on fraudulent schemes in the crypto industry. According to the firm, scammers released over 100,000 new "cryptocurrencies" (117,629 to be exact) from January 1 to December 1, 2022. This figure is 41% higher than the figure recorded in 2021. The BNB Smart Chain blockchain, developed by the Binance exchange, took the first place in terms of the number of coins issued by fraudsters. 12% of the tokens created on this network were issued by scammers. In second place is the Ethereum cryptocurrency blockchain, in which 8% of new coins were associated with scam projects.
The most profitable scam was the so-called honeypot, which is a trap for greedy people. To pull off this scam, attackers develop a smart contract with a vulnerability that supposedly allows you to withdraw cryptocurrency after making a deposit. In practice, those who fall for the bait of the scammers cannot take the coins from the "pot" and lose their assets. The authors of one of these virtual traps, based on Squid Game (SQUID) tokens, earned $3.3 million in just a few days.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Traditionally, we publish currency forecasts from the world's leading financial institutions at the turn of the outgoing and coming years. We did this two years, and a year ago. Therefore, we can not only look into the future now, but also analyze whether experts were right in the past.




2020-2021: EUR/USD in Times of COVID

December 2019 There was no talk of a global pandemic that month, when the first outbreak of COVID-19 was recorded in Wuhan, China. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall.

As the pandemic raged on, this scenario began to prove its case. The dollar began to lose ground starting from the last decade of March 2020. The Fed's printing press was running at full capacity, flooding the US market with new cheap dollars. There were no plans to curtail monetary stimulus and, moreover, to raise the interest rate. Starting from 1.0630 on March 22, 2020, EUR/USD met the new 2021 at 1.2300.

The pair continued to grow with the onset of 2021. But this trend lasted... less than one week. It reached the level of 1.2350 on January 6, and this was the year's high. Everything changed starting from January 7, and the dollar began to win back losses.

The US currency moved in a sinusoidal manner until the end of May, fluctuating along with the waves of the coronavirus and statements by the Fed leaders. But the mood of the US Central Bank began to clearly change from dovish to hawkish just before summer, the country's economy was recovering, and investors began to grow confident in the imminent rise in the key interest rate from the current "miserable" level of 0.25%. As a result, the dollar went into steady growth, and EUR/USD ended 2021 in the 1.1350 zone, having lost 1,000 points in a year.


2022: EUR/USD During the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

The prospect of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy (QT) and a further rate hike inspired investors to be optimistic about the future of the US currency. Experts' forecasts also looked optimistic. The US economy, including the labor market, was recovering at a good pace, and GDP growth was forecast at 5%, which gave the Federal Reserve the opportunity to actively combat inflation. The fact that the interest rate will rise to at least 1.5% by the end of 2023 was almost beyond doubt. Confidence in the further strengthening of the dollar was added by the dovish position of the Central Banks of the G7 countries, which are more tolerant of rising prices.

Strategists at the Dutch banking Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep) predicted that EUR/USD would trade at 1.1000 in Q4 2022. Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) were in solidarity with ING. “Our main argument,” their forecast said, “is based on two factors supporting the dollar: 1. a slowdown in global economic growth, and 2. the Federal Reserve’s gradual transition to a possible rate hike." In addition, HSBC considered that the ECB would not raise the interest rate on the euro until the end of 2022.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists also sided with the US dollar, setting the same goal for EUR/USD for the last two quarters of 2022: 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200.

However, not all financial authorities relied on the growth of the dollar. Thus, Barclays Bank considered the dollar to be highly overvalued. The bank's economists predicted its modest depreciation as risk appetite and commodities surged on the back of the global economic recovery and cooling inflation. The scenario written for EUR/USD in Barclays looked like this: Q1 2022 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published their scenarios of the dynamics of the foreign exchange market for the next 12 months. In addition to the aforementioned JP Morgan and Barclays, the respondents were banking conglomerates Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, as well as Europe's largest asset management company Amundi.

Morgan Stanley believed that the Fed's rate hike would proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks would move from dovish to hawkish politics. This should lead to convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise EUR/USD to 1.1800.

Goldman Sachs strategists called the same target of 1.1800. And Amundi said the Fed "can do little to surprise market expectations," although it agreed that the momentum "would remain broadly positive for the dollar." According to the company's strategists, EUR/USD should have ended 2022 around 1.1400.

It's safe to say now that analysts from ING, HSBC, CIBC gave the closest forecast. And it is possible that this forecast could come true by 100%. Or maybe their opponents from Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs would be right. But if the whole world was turned upside down by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, a war entered the life of the planet in 2022. Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent anti-Russian sanctions have caused an economic crisis, energy starvation and increased inflation in many countries, even very far from this region.

The proximity of the EU countries to the conflict zone, their heavy dependence on Russian natural energy resources, the nuclear threat and the risk of the transfer of hostilities to their territory all dealt a serious blow to the Eurozone economy and forced the ECB to act as carefully as possible so as not to bring it down completely. The USA found itself in much more favorable conditions, which allowed the Fed not only to continue, but also to accelerate the pace of QT and rate hikes. EUR/USD fell below the 1.0000 parity line for the first time in 20 years on July 14, and it hit a low at 0.9535 on September 28.

The main driver for the strengthening of the dollar was the expectation of a sharp rise in the refinancing rate, supported by the statements and actions of the Fed leaders. The rate was at the level of 0.25% between March 15, 2020 (beginning of the pandemic) to March 16, 2022. It was then raised by 25 basis points (bp), then by another 50 bps, followed by four more 75 bps increases. Then the US Central Bank slightly slowed down the pace of tightening and raised the rate by only 50 bps at its last meeting in 2022, after which it reached 4.50%.

The ECB kept the euro rate at 0.00% for a long time. However, it was forced to start tightening his monetary policy following the Fed. The regulator raised the rate to 0.50% at its meeting on July 21, to 1.25% on September 08, to 2.00% on October 27, and, finally, to 2.50% on December 15.

The fact that the ECB did start tightening its monetary policy has benefited the euro. The fact that Europe filled its oil and gas storage facilities to capacity before the winter cold and also found ways to replace Russian energy resources helped the pan-European currency as well. As a result, EUR/USD rose again above the 1.0000 level and reached a high of 1.0735 on December 15.

***

So, the common European currency lost 2,815 points to the American one from January 06, 2021, to September 28, 2022. Then the euro launched a counterattack, and it managed to win back 1,200 points by the end of the year, or more than 40% of losses. We will tell you what leading experts expect from these two currencies in the coming year, 2023, in a week, in our next review.

In the meantime, let us wish you and your loved ones success in your work, financial well-being, good health and the fulfillment of all your desires, even your most daring ones. And let's hope that unlike the past three years, the coming year will be filled with only positive events. Happy New Year!


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week



- Billionaire Mark Cuban had an argument with Club Random podcast host Bill Maher regarding investments in bitcoin and gold. Maher noted that he is an opponent of the first cryptocurrency and believes in the value of the precious metal. In response, Cuban called those who invest in gold dumb. “I want bitcoin to drop lower so I can buy some more,” the billionaire said.
Cuban also criticized Maher's claim that gold is a hedge against inflation and other risks. According to him, buying the precious metal does not mean owning a physical ingot. “This is a digital transaction that proves ownership […]. Do you know what would happen if you had a gold bar in your hands? Someone would beat you to a pulp or kill you to take it,” Cuban added.

- The mining company BIT Mining Limited reported a hacker attack on the BTC.com pool under its control. “As a result of the cyber attack, certain cryptocurrencies were stolen, including assets of BTC.com customers worth about $700,000 and approximately $2.3 million owned by the company,” BIT Mining Limited said. According to Immunefi, the crypto industry's total losses from hacks and scams in Q3 22 amounted to $428.7 million.

- According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency, North Korean hackers have stolen $1.2 billion worth of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets over the past five years. More than half of this amount ($626 million) was stolen over the past year.
North Korea's hackers are considered among the best, as Kim Jong-un's regime is investing heavily in cybercrime. CNN has published a major investigation into how the North Korean regime is financing its nuclear program by creating a network of agents and hackers embedded in various crypto exchanges and crypto companies, mainly from the United States.

- Large institutional investors are still “staying away” from digital assets due to high volatility. This was stated by Jared Gross, Managing Director of JPMorgan Asset Management. In his opinion, bitcoin has not become an alternative to gold and a hedge against inflation, as many hoped, and for most large institutions, cryptocurrencies “actually do not exist” as an asset class. “[A lot of big investors] breathed a sigh of relief that they haven't entered this market and probably won't do so anytime soon,” added Jared Gross.

- Bobby Lee, co-founder and former head of the BTCC exchange, allowed the cryptocurrency bull market to return by early 2025, in an interview with CNBC. “It is difficult to determine exactly when this bear market will bottom out. I expect the bull market to return in two years,” he said.
The expert also believes that it is necessary to strengthen regulation, especially for companies providing custody services, to restore confidence in the digital asset industry. “I have always been a supporter of more regulation in the cryptocurrency market. To understand, I'm talking about regulating companies, not the asset itself, because it's inert. It is a commodity like gold and silver. No regulation can change the chemical composition of gold or silver. It’s the same with bitcoin,” Lee explained.

- Bitcoin has been recognized as a means of payment in Brazil. The law that has secured this status for it has been passed by Congress and signed by the president of the country. The Bank of Brazil is expected to be in charge of using the first cryptocurrency as a means of payment, while the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to take responsibility for overseeing digital gold as an investment asset.
At the same time, the Chairman of the Bank of Brazil has repeatedly stated that he does not consider cryptocurrencies as an alternative to fiat. Based on this, according to a number of experts, the Central Bank will not help create favorable conditions for the use of bitcoin in mutual settlements.

- Ethereum's fundamentals are strong, but analysts expect ETH to further depreciate. The Ethereum blockchain is at its best since its launch. 100 days have passed since the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. The chain is now protected by almost half a million validators, and energy consumption has decreased by 99%.
In addition, Ethereum remains the best ecosystem of non-fungible tokens, or NFTs. According to Nansen, almost $24 billion worth of NFTs were minted and sold in 2022. However, these positive factors have not increased ETH quotes. The price of the coin is still close to $1,200, and some analysts predict a further drop in the rate to the $1,000 zone.

- Crypto trader Dan Gambardella, who runs a YouTube channel called Crypto Capital Venture, released a video on whether the crypto industry can reach a capitalization of $100 trillion by 2030. Gambardella quoted Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs chief executive and CEO of RealVision, who compared the cryptocurrency industry to the stocks, bonds and real estate industries, whose market capitalization ranges from $250-350 trillion. Based on this analysis, the top manager believes that a $100 trillion crypto market capitalization could become a reality.

- Popular analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin’s current percentage drawdown from its all-time high is approaching the level that signaled the bottom of the 2018 and 2014 bear markets. According to Cowen's chart, bitcoin then fell by more than 80%, today its fall is 75.6% from the high set in November 2021. This figure indicates the approaching end of the bear market. But it is too early to say that the bottom has already been reached.
Cowen is also keeping a close eye on the percentage drawdown of total market capitalization from all-time highs. According to him, it is now down by 72%, which is also still less than the drawdowns observed during the previous two bear markets.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

We analyzed last week what happened to the two most popular currencies in 2020-2022, what forecasts were given then by the strategists of leading financial institutions for EUR/USD, and how accurate they turned out to be. Now it's time to tell what experts expect from 2023.



It should be noted right away that these forecasts differ greatly: life has brought too many “surprises” in recent years and has left too many unresolved problems for the future.

What will be the geopolitical situation, in what direction and at what pace will the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB go, what will happen to the recession and labor markets, will it be possible to defeat inflation and curb energy prices? We have yet to find out the answers to these and many other questions. There are a lot of uncertainties, which do not allow experts to come to a common opinion.

Some believe that EUR/USD will approach the 2000-2002 lows around 0.8500, while others believe that it will rush to 1.6000, as it was in 2008. Of course, these are extreme values. It is highly likely that the pair will not reach either the first or the second of these extremes, and the range of oscillations will be much narrower. At least, this is what most reputable experts point out, and we will introduce you to their forecasts.


What the Bulls Say for EUR/USD

Deutsche Bank strategists assume that the pair may return to the February-March 2022 figures in 2023 (a two-month fluctuation range of 1.0800-1.1500). In their opinion, this may happen even if the geopolitical situation does not improve and remains at the level of the second half of 2022. However, in their opinion, such a weakening of the dollar is possible only if the Federal Reserve begins to ease its monetary policy in the second half of 2023.

And that is what might not happen. Recall that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the press conference following the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting that the regulator will keep interest rates at their peak until it is sure that the decline in inflation has become a stable trend. The base rate can be raised to 5.1% in 2023 and remain so high until 2024. (Recall that 4.6% was mentioned as the peak rate in the September statement). According to Jerome Powell, the Fed understands that this will trigger a recession, but is willing to pay that price to control inflation.

It should be noted that the position of the US Central Bank runs counter to the position of the United Nations, which called for a suspension of rate hikes. The UN believes that further tightening of monetary policy could cause serious damage to developing countries, which have already suffered greatly from the increase in the cost of goods in the United States.

In addition to putting pressure on the Fed, there is another way to balance and even weaken the dollar's position. This is what the ECB and several other Central Banks have demonstrated in recent months by raising their own interest rates. As we wrote in the previous review, the common European currency managed to seriously push the dollar over the last three months of 2022 and lift EUR/USD by about 1,200 points.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as her overseas counterpart, showed a hawkish attitude at the press conference on December 15 and made it clear that quantitative tightening (QT) in the Eurozone will not end there: the euro interest rate will face several more increases in 2023. The ECB also plans to start reducing its balance sheet from March.

At the beginning of 2023, the gap between the dollar and euro rates is 200 basis points (4.5% and 2.5%, respectively). The swap market expects that the European regulator may raise its rate by another 100 bp in the coming year, which will provide some support for EUR/USD.

Economists at Bank of America Global Research agree with this development. “According to our baseline scenario,” they write, “the US dollar will remain strong in early 2023 and will switch to a more stable downward trajectory after the Fed's pause.” Starting from Q2, according to BofA, the dollar will gradually weaken, and EUR/USD will rise to 1.1000.

German Commerzbank supports this scenario. “Given the expected change in the interest rate of the Fed and provided that the ECB refrains from cutting interest rates […], our target price for EUR/USD for 2023 is 1.1000,” economists of this banking group predict.

The French financial conglomerate Societe Generale also votes for the weakening of the dollar and the growth of the pair. “We expect,” says Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at SocGen, “that the yield difference between 10-year US and German bonds will fall from 180 basis points to 115 basis points by the end of Q1, and the difference between 2-year interest rates will fall from 190 bps to less than 1%. The last time we saw such a difference between rate and return, EUR/USD was above 1.1500 and this is where it will be by the end of Q1 if it continues to rise at the same rate as it reached 0.9500 at the end of September ".


What the Bears Say For EUR/USD

Analysts at the Economic Forecasting Agency expect the pair to grow to 1.1160 in the coming year, but then, in their opinion, it will fall smoothly but steadily and reach 1.0430 at the end of Q2, 1.0050 at the end of Q3, and end the year at 0.9790.

Economists at Internationale Nederlanden Groep have taken a much more radical stance. ING is confident that all the pressures of 2022 will continue into 2023. High energy prices will continue to put pressure on the European economy. Additional pressure will be exerted if the US Federal Reserve suspends the printing press before the ECB does. Analysts of this largest banking group in the Netherlands believe that the exchange rate of 0.9500 euros per dollar will be adequate in Q1 2023, which, however, may grow to parity of 1.0000 in Q4.

Many other authoritative experts also support the US currency. Thus, Dave Schabes at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy believes that Russia's war with Ukraine threatens to slow economic growth across Europe and prolong the continent's energy crisis until 2023 and possibly 2024. According to the scientist, this is a specific factor contributing to the strength of the dollar. “The US has always been considered the world's number one safe haven in times of political or military uncertainty,” he says.

Eric Donovan, head of Institutional FX at StoneX, a financial services company, shares the same point of view. “The main reason the dollar has become so strong is because it is still considered a safe-haven currency and it will strengthen during periods when the markets are in a state of fear,” he explains. Therefore, the dollar will remain strong against European currencies as long as this war continues.

***

The past year, 2022, was not an easy one: the problems created by the coronavirus pandemic were superimposed by the tragic events in Ukraine, which have hit the entire global economy. However, as the legendary King Solomon said to the king of Ethiopia: "This too shall pass." We really want to believe this.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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