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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar lost some ground against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.20. The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US durable goods orders negative macroeconomic statistics. The sales declined by 3.4% in December while the market expected growth by 0.6%. We should mention the fact that traders ignored the US strong consumer confidence and new home sales data. Apparently, traders consider that the euro is strongly oversold and liquidated short positions.

The UK weak GDP data for the 4th quarter could not encourage bears to open the large number of short positions. The final indicator was 0.5% that is slightly below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector and the service sector weakness have had a significant negative impact on the UK economic growth.

The pair USD/JPY was under pressure amid the profit-taking on global stock markets long positions. However, after the US positive new buildings sales and consumer confidence releases we saw steady demand for the US dollar. It is worth noting the Conference Board report which showed the private consumption growth up to the level of 102.9 p. in January. Nevertheless the pair slightly fell at the end of the trades, but did not exit the range.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Undoubtedly, this week the key event is the US Federal Reserve meeting. The US 10-year bond yields are at the level of 1.81%, indicating the inflation reduction in the short term.

The euro is consolidating after it was actively correcting against the US dollar, rebounding from the support level of 1.1170. The formed price increase is not supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders ignored the UK weak economic growth release which jeopardizes the bearish trend development. In this regard, the statements made by the Fed last night will determine the pair GBP/USD future dynamics.

The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound downward trend. The formed correction will enable buyers to raise the price to the daily resistance level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5200 breakthrough upward the way to the support 1.5300 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Quotations decline below the level of 118.00 should be used to build up long positions. The commodity market sales with the relatively low wages growth rate in 2014 indicate the inflationary pressure compression in the United States for the first quarter of this year.

Having not reached the level of 119.20, the correctional price growth stopped above the level of 118.00, going to a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 119.20. If the price falls it will get to 115.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.01.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was the central event of the week - the US Federal Reserve announced the monetary policy meeting results. In anticipation of this event the major pairs consolidated as traders refrained from active trading. The monetary regulator pointed out to the fact that we should not expect the first rate hike within the federal funds till June. The short-term inflation forecasts have been revised downwards, it was noted the labor market rapid recovery. The FOMC representatives consider the energy prices decrease as a favorable factor for the household expenditure increase that will maintain high economic growth. It should also be noted that the decision to leave interest rates unchanged was unanimous while the FOMC three representatives voted for monetary policy tightening at the meeting in December 2014.

Despite the Fed conservative rhetoric, traders were in no hurry to liquidate long positions within the US dollar. The dollar significantly increased only against the pound.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

On the one hand, the Fed has kept the promise of "patience" in relation to the rates increase. This factor is negative for the US dollar. On the other hand, the euro area inflation expectations are much worse than the UK ones. The main event of the day will be the Germany consumer price index data release.

Buyers reached the level of 1.1400 amid the reduced volume.

The price consolidation near the resistance level of 1.1300 is more likely to serve as a signal for the upward correction reversal.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1170 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Today the UK will not please traders with the positive data and in this regard we can expect the side trend continuation during the day. The fundamental background remains mixed - the FOMC negative pigeon rhetoric for the dollar and the Brent inability to consolidate above the psychological level of $ 50 put pressure on the British pound.

Two daily correctional pound growth was stopped by the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5200. The upper bound testing resulted led to the continued consolidation followed by the decrease under the level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5015 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders shall focus their attention on the stock market dynamics amid the Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The Fed “patience” lowered the two-year Treasury bond yields below 0.5% and now we can expect the upward trend development.

Traders have been testing the strong resistance level of 118.00 for five consecutive days. The short-term breaks are followed by the constant price rebounds downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 118.00 breakthrough down the way to the supports 117.00, 115.80 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar looked quite cheerful amid its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.82. The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed moderate demand despite the Eurozone negative statistics. The Germany CPI release pointed out that the Old World largest economy came into deflation. This report indicates that we should not expect pleasant surprises on the Eurozone CPI tomorrow. At the moment the quotes reached the level of 1.1367 after which there was a technical rebound.

After the US positive jobless claims release - bears made a powerful attack on the pair GBP/USD. The previous week figure exceeded the traders’ expectations by 43 thousand that allows to count on the labor market positive data release at the beginning of the week. The CRB commodity index has once again showed a downward trend which also supported demand for the US dollar. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.

Despite the demand for the US corporate bonds with the positive overseas jobless claims release for the last week earlier encouraged bulls cheered for the "longs" opening within the pair USD/JPY, during the day traders systematically built up short positions that allowed to finish the trading day with the quotations decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany came into deflation and now the euro bulls remained without support. Today it is difficult to expect surprises from the Eurozone CPI release. Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi signaled about the risk balance for the first quarter of 2015 shifted towards the negative direction.

The euro corrective rise from the support level of 1.1170 turned into the flat framework of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The trade is at the low volumes, still the pair is heading towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The main event of the day is the 4th quarter US GDP release. All macroeconomic releases from October to December showed the US economic growth high rate that allows us to rely on the data release better than the consensus forecast. Last week we received the UK GDP data and the quarterly growth by 0.5% will be quite weak amid the US strong growth.

The pound corrective growth was stopped by the mark of 1.5200. The mark testing was followed by the consolidation with the following rebounds downwards.

The target has already been achieved by the support level of 1.5100 breakthrough, and the level of 1.5015 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.4920 and 1.4800 where the pair may stop, further on we expect a consolidation.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Japan inflation release. The strong energy prices decline with the weak consumer demand does not allow us to count on the positive news.

The sellers reduced the price to the strong support level of 117.00 amid the very low volume that has already turned the downward trend upwards for four times.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The level of 117.00 retest is more likely to lead to a consolidation. Then we expect the upward movement.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc stopped to suffer losses and started a consolidation while the dollar index has reached the maximum level for the last 10 years amid expectations that the Fed was the only major central bank which was ready to raise interest rates.

Additional support for the US dollar caused the US labor market release. The jobless claims have reached the 15 years low.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.87. During the day the pair EUR/USD was under pressure after the euro area weak inflation data. According to the preliminary estimates the CPI decline has accelerated and the Old World deflationary disease is developing at full speed. As a result, the trade within the euro/dollar finished with the quotations slight increase in the consolidation range.

The UK 10- year bond yields sharp decline acted as a major factor for the British pound sales against the US dollar. The Gilts yields installed a fresh 5-year minimum that is a bearish factor for the pair GBP/USD. Even the US GDP moderately negative data for the 4th quarter was unable to reverse the negative trend. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.

The Japan moderate positive macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to open the "shorts". The inflation was 0.1% in December that came better than forecasted medians, despite the household expenditure negative release. Traders ignored the personal consumption weak data and focused their attention on the CPI report. The US GDP strong release was unable to support bulls and they were disappointed. Growth in the 4th quarter amounted to 2.6% instead of the expected growth by 3%. Pressure on the dollar was growing and finally the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The United States will publish the manufacturing sector ISM report. The low demand for the commodity market makes us think that we will get the release within the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar bulls will remain without strengths and we can expect the moderate demand for the single European currency.

The most part of the last week the trade was within the flat after a slight upward correction to the support level of 1.1170. The flat continued on Monday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.1400 test is more likely to lead to the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170 return.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector last 2014 quarter was very weak and amid the euro zone economy weakness it is difficult to expect positive changes. We can expect the news slightly worse than the forecast which will have some pressure on the British pound.

There was a short-term resistance level of 1.5100 testing amid the low volumes. The level testing was followed by the price rebound downwards with the following testing and fixating above the support near 1.5015.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5200. The strong resistance level 1.5200 test will be followed by a consolidation.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics, the traders’ attention will be focused on the Japanese stock market dynamics. The US GDP moderately negative release for the fourth quarter will encourage bears to open short positions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Market. We can expect the ISM index within the forecasted medians that cannot cause strong reaction from the traders’ part.

The trading week opening within this instrument was followed by a gap. Due to the price gap sellers tested the support the level of 117.00, but they could not consolidate under this level. Within two hours the gap was closed.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 117.00 may lead to a price rebound up. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell after the central bank let the exchange rate become free in mid-January. The reason for the last week decrease caused the comments by Jean-Pierre Danthine, the Swiss central bank vice-president that the regulator was ready for intervention.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

During the day the pair EUR/USD enjoyed a demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index showed decline to the level of 53.5 in January which is the lowest level since March 2013. The manufacturing sector weakness is a negative factor for the economic growth and against this background traders get rid of the US dollar.

The UK moderately positive manufacturing PMI was able to support the GBP/USD bulls. The UK 10-year bond yields increase negates all the traders’ efforts who rely on the strong uptrend. Moreover, the British Gilts and the German Bund bond yields enhances demand for the pair which also puts pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pound grew amid the dollar weakness.

The US ISM manufacturing sector weak release encouraged bears to short with USD/JPY. The US industry business activity has been declining for two consecutive months which is the first wake-up call. It should also be noted the manufacturing sector employment decline according to the ISM. The negative background caused not only the US dollar decrease, but also hit the US stock market - leading indices have updated the last week minimum values.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

During the day the pair can show a moderate effect amid the two key factors. Firstly, during the two days we have seen the "black gold" growth which is a negative factor for the US dollar. Secondly, the UK and German 10-year bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long which will also support the single European currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the UK second release – for this time we will obtain the construction sector data. On the one hand, the Bank of England has reported about the approved mortgage applications number increase in December. The UK average earnings growth has a positive impact on the consumer activity. On the other hand, the mortgage loans volume has been declining for five consecutive months, according to the British Bankers' Association that the construction industry decrease cannot allow us to count on the strong data release.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics we should expect the moderate upward trend. After the January sales in the US stock markets we can expect the bulls’ return. The current levels are
attractive for medium-term positions and this factor will support demand for the pair.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pressure on the Swiss franc was caused by the SNB messages that the SNB would informally keep
the franc against the euro within a specific corridor.

The US dollar was supported by the US labor market report. Nevertheless the franc slightly strengthened at the end of the day.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9340.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The dollar exchange rate stabilized after the most powerful decrease for the last year that was caused by the commodity producing countries currency growth. The day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics that suggests the beginning of the global dollar correction. We should also mention the bullish rally in two key commodity markets assets: copper increased by 3.8%, the Brent oil rose up by 4.7%. At the same time, it is more difficult for the Fed officials to ignore external factors and other central banks actions.

The euro is decreasing against the dollar after a significant increase during the previous session, supported by hopes for the Greek debt situation compromise. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras assured international lenders that he did not want to create conflicts in Europe.

The pound also strengthened against the dollar. The trend is developing in favor of the pound on the bond market: the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.

The dollar has grown against the yen due to the US and the Japanese stock market bond yields increase.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The first medium-term correction phase is in the midst of its peak and now it is fatal to open the "shorts" within the euro. The traders’ attention will be focused on the December euro zone retail sales publication. The retail sector sales decrease was traditionally observed in the Old World last month, but the Germany and France consumer spending growth cannot allow us to count on the weak data.

The seven week trading session downward channel was broken through upwards. The level breakthrough of 1.1400 was at the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will consolidate around the level of 1.1300.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Markit Economics will publish the UK service sector business climate data. The unemployment reduction with the UK average wage increase can allow us to count on the index growth compared to the previous month. In this regard, the British pound can get some support.

The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound decline against the US dollar for the second time. The short-term level testing was followed by the price upward rebound amid the increased trading volumes. The resistance levels of 1.5100 and 1.5200 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the resistance at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Despite the fact that we saw a steady growth in the world's leading stock markets which is a positive factor for the pair dollar/yen. However, the US dollar global correction with the service sector moderately negative ISM release will put pressure on bulls.

The strong support level of 117.00 breakthrough was not so long. Buyers bought out the price, returning the trade above the level of 117.00 which still plays the role of a reference support.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward correction target is the level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown due to the dollar general decline against other major currencies. The statistics played a significant role in it. The US factory orders data showed a decline by 3.4% m/m in December during the session.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD showed a growth after a moderate decline - bulls took profits on the long positions after this week strong growth. Macroeconomic data showed a mixed background – the euro zone unemployment positive release was replaced by the US service sector ISM business activity positive one.

The sales within the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate put pressure on the euro after the UK positive publication. Nevertheless the pair grew after a decrease.

Yesterday the British pound enjoyed a steady demand. The UK services sector PMI index showed a growth to the level of 57.2%. It is also worth noting that the British indicator was able to bypass the same US indicator in January despite the fact that the ISM has reported the non-productive sphere increase. Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD rose up at the end of the day.

The US macroeconomic statistics which was published on Wednesday can be regarded as negative. The ADP and ISM employment releases came out worse than the forecasted medians that with the manufacturing sector employment decrease cannot allow us to count on strong non-farm data output. The services sector business activity showed growth compared to the previous month, but the industrial sector weakness signals about the economic growth slowdown. Against this background, bears opened short positions within the pair USD/JPY that caused the quotations decrease. The pair increased at the end of the trading day.



Euro (EUR)

General overview

The December US trade balance can disappointed traders with its weak data. First, the dollar revaluation makes the US goods less competitive which is a negative factor for exports. Second, we observed the traditional trade deficit increase in December. Against this background, we can expect the data slightly worse than the forecasted medians.

After buyers broke through the level of 1.1400 we expected a good corrective wave upwards within the euro. However, the reverse support level breakthrough of 1.1400 led to the correction completion. After the level of 1.1300 testing the pair rebounded upwards and closed the trades above the level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Daed Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two support levels of: 1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Despite the UK rapid inflation decline – we should not expect surprises from the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy changes. All the negative predictions have already been laid in the current market price and against this background the traders’ attention will be focused on the US statistics.

The resistance level of 1.5200 was tested. The test led to the level breakthrough was followed by the rapid price growth. The resistance level of 1.5300 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5400. After breaking 1.5400 the buyers may go to 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US moderately negative macroeconomic trade balance statistics with the technical correction which we observe in the USDX dollar index shows the bearish sentiment predominance. However, the economic slowdown in Japan as well as the world's leading stock markets growth will not allow the yen to strengthen significantly.

The price movement is changeable at the level of 117.00 which first makes its way downwards and then upwards. During the breaks the trade volumes are in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price consolidation.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc temporarily strengthened against the dollar after the relatively weak ADP report publication. The ADP report traditionally helps to correct expectations for Friday's employment report.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

All traders’ attention was focused on the UK macroeconomic statistics. The January labor market release pleased investors with its positive data. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 257 thousand that exceeded the traders’ expectations by 23 thousand. It will also possible the average hourly wage increase by 0.5% which will spur private consumption and will have a positive impact on the US economic growth. Against this positive background, traders once again started to increase long positions within the US dollar and we have seen the dollar rapid quotations growth. Then there was a consolidation in the majors pairs.

The present-day political news could support the US dollar - the Fed representatives Plosser and Lockhart gave "hawkish" tone speeches which can be judged according to the words about the unemployment increase that will not cause anxiety and the US CB is approaching the moment when it will be difficult to justify keeping interest rates at the same level.

The Bank of Japan continues to show confidence in the inflation targets achievement in 2015. The Central Bank will not intend to use the additional easing measures if there is the inflation decrease because of the falling oil prices. According to the Bank of Japan representative Iwate, the trending prices level shows a steady growth which will lead the inflation to the target level of 2% in 2015 fiscal year. At the same time, he believes that the oil prices decline complicates the Central Bank efforts in relation to the increasing inflation level and will delay this target implementation.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

It should be highlighted the Germany trade balance data publication. The euro devaluation with the industrial production moderate increase indicates the data output within the forecasted medians.

Sellers have broken through the support level of 1.1400 for the second time. The pair stopped at the support level of 1.1300 where pair is consolidating.

The support level breakthrough of 1.1400 was followed by the price decrease to the mark of 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1170 breakthrough down the way to the support level of 1.1040 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Traders will take a break to assess the future trends perspectives amid the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The US labor market positive data can spur demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.

The key resistance of 1.5300 is still relevant. Buyers have tried to test this mark, but without subsequent level breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can breakthrough to the support level of 1.5200. After breaking 1.5200 the pair may go to 1.5100.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan Ministry of Finance published the current account surplus data in December which amounted to 187.2 billion yen. The growth rate has not met analysts' forecasts that amounted to 355.8 billion yen and were lower than in November when the surplus amounted to 433.0 billion yen. The trade balance deficit reached 395.6 billion yen, beating analysts' expectations.

There was a rebound from the support level of 117.00. The price growth fell to 119.20. The pair rebounded downwards from this level. The trade volumes are in reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be continued now. The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 118.00, 117.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc fell slightly amid the dollar growth. The US dollar compensated losses incurred at the beginning of the week after the unexpectedly US labor market strong report publication. The number of new jobs was 257K in January after 252K and the unemployment rate was  5.7% in January against 5.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was able to compensate some lost ground amid the Germany positive trade balance for December. The index went out significantly better than the forecasted medians that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pair euro/dollar finished with a growth after a slight decrease.

During the day the pair GBP/USD showed a lateral trend in the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The UK and the US 10-year bond yields expansion encouraged bears to short and at the moment the price reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a technical rebound upwards.

Yesterday there was a downward trend on the world's leading stock markets that had a negative impact on the USD/JPY. Traders fixed profits on the long positions after the rapid Friday growth. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen recovered lost positions after a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

In the absence important macroeconomic statistics traders shall focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed the US and Germany 10-year bond yields, which is a bearish factor for the euro.

The price consolidated inside the "rectangle" near the levels of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The downward trend potential is preserved.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1170 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the industrial production. The PMI manufacturing index showed a decline to the level of 52.5%, indicating the industrial sector slowdown. We expect the data output slightly worse than the forecasted medians which will add pressure on the British pound.

Sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.5200 which currently acts as a resistance. A consolidation below the level 1.5300 and the resistance level of 1.5200 will last till the GDP fundamental data output.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Yesterday we observed a USD/JPY correction and also on the world's leading stock markets, so today we may expect the bulls’ return. The US Treasury 10-year bond yields are still below 2% and the current levels are attractive for long positions on the US stock market.

The first downward trend line testing of 119.20 was followed by a slight price rebound downwards. Trading volumes have not shown spikes at the lower prices. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 117.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD pair consolidated near the 13th figure amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone and the US. Traders took a wait-and-see position and against this background there was a sluggish trade.

The pair GBP/USD tested the 52nd figure in the first half of the day after the weak industrial production release. The index decreased by 0.2% in December while traders expected a growth by 0.3%. At the moment quotes reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a trend reversal. The US and UK negative bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long.

Strong growth on the world's leading stock markets supported demand for the USD/JPY during the day. Traders used correctional movement to build up long positions and as a result, the pair has grown up.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Eurozone and the United States have pleased traders with interesting macroeconomic releases. The fundamental background for the main pairs is mixed now. On the one hand, we have seen the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion which is a bearish signal. There is the largest oil workers’ strike for the last 30 years that pushes up the "black gold" prices. The oil correction has not finished yet which is a bullish factor for the pair euro/dollar.

The price continued its consolidation at the support level of 1.1300 was followed by its rebound downwards below this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.1170 this week.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We should not count on the steady quotations growth in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK 10-year bond yields are raising in relation to the Germany and the US analogues that is a bullish factor for the "cable".

Sellers are dominant in this market. The medium-term downward trend is held by the key resistance as a downward trend line of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5015.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan celebrated a national holiday – the state foundation day. On this occasion, the Japan banking institutions were closed yesterday. Growth in the world's leading stock markets will spur demand for the pair dollar/yen.

There were the resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough and the level of 120.40 testing. Due to the formed breakthrough the medium-term downward trend reversed upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 120.40 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 121.60 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the US dollar lost its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.02. During the day the pair EUR/USD consolidated near the 13th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. This week there was a flat within main pair and soon we expect it to leave the range. The euro strengthened on the yesterday’s trades.

The pair GBP/USD enjoyed steady demand in the morning amid the sales within the cross-rate euro/pound. The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion strengthened the bearish trend within the cross-rate which positively affected the British pound. Still the "cable" has lost all the advantage by the end of the day. The pound increased amid the BoE chief’s speech.

Bulls were dominant on the Tokyo stock exchange market that encouraged bulls to long during the day. This factor with the 10-year US Treasury bond yields increase formed strong demand for the US dollar. The Treasuries bond yields exceeded the level of 2% for the first time this month amid expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates in mid-year. Nevertheless the pair sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The consolidation that we saw the last three trading days was fallowed by the growth. The United States will publish the retail sales release for January. The Michigan University consumer confidence leading indicators and the Conference Board showed an impressive growth in January which proves a high demand in the retail sector. The average earnings index grew by 0.5% in January which is extremely positive for the consumer activity.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1520 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to the level of 1.1590.



Pound(GBP)

General overview

Traders responded positively on the Bank of England quarterly inflation report. We saw an unemployment decrease in the UK which together with the average earnings growth is a positive factor not only for the economic growth, but also for the inflation. The UK 10-year bond yields are now at the level of 1.67% that is higher by 33 basis points above the January lows.

The trade within the pound looked quite sluggish and low volatile. The pound sharply increased after the news publication.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upwards movements and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets is the resistance level of 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair decreased but the bullish trend is gaining momentum and now we expect the trend continuation. The United States can please traders with the retail sales positive statistics for January that will encourage traders to long.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40 and 121.60.



Franc (СHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc consolidated in the narrow range this week. The pair slightly increased at the yesterday’s trades.

The main event is the US retail sales report. It is expected that the report figures will not be too good because of the gasoline prices decrease, it is also expected the cars slight sales decline, but the base rate should be higher than December one by 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The January retail sale release disappointed traders with the weak data - the sales fell by 0.9% in January, indicating the weak private consumption and this is a negative factor for the economic growth. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar closed the trades at the opening price.

The British pound has shown the strong quotes growth after the Bank of England quarter inflation report release. The report is uneven. On the one hand, Mark Carney pointed to the monetary control willingness to decrease the key rate, if necessary, because of the oil prices decrease. On the other hand, traders noted that the rates could be increased earlier than expected. Traders focused their attention only on the last statement and began to open "longs". Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD has grown.

Traders fixed profits at the pair USD/JPY after a sharp increase. The US negative retail sector sales statistics has accelerated the corrective movement development and at the moment quotes reached the level of 118.50 after which there was a technical rebound amid the US stock market growth. As a result, the pair dollar/yen decreased at the end of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Germany recorded the GDP growth for the fourth quarter. The manufacturing and the service sector showed a slowdown in the last 2014 quarter. The euro devaluation has had a positive effect on the net exports, reducing unemployment to 0.1%. The Brent oil increased by more than 5% that would be able to support moderate demand for the single European currency.

There was the attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.1400, but the pair failed to fixate above it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1520 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1590.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The currency market major players reacted positively to the quarter inflation report despite the fact that the Bank of England governor pointed out to the monetary policy easing if necessary. Mark Carney noted that the British banks recapitalization had made the key interest rate decrease possible.

There were the resistance level of 1.5300 and the level of 1.5400 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.5400. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics, traders will focus their attention on the stock and bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed a high demand for the risky assets amid the geopolitical tension decrease because of the Ukraine events as well as the US retail sales positive statistics.

After testing the strong resistance level of 120.40, the price has formed a short-term consolidation and sharply fell downwards. The support level of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 118.00 further on we expect a decrease to 117.00 where the pair may stop.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will be consolidated with the risks balance, biased to the downside after it has reached the eight-day high of 0.9340 on Thursday.

The pair is under the market deteriorating relationships pressure towards the US dollar. The pair potential target is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, by the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales and the Swiss franc sales within the growing pair euro/franc.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The euro exchange rate rose against the US dollar on Monday; the market's attention was directed to the Euro group meeting on Greece. The euro area finance ministers held a regular meeting on Monday evening where they discussed the Greek problem. Meanwhile, the European Financial Stability Fund governor (ESM), Klaus Regling stated on Sunday that the Greek exit from the euro zone would be the worst way out of the situation. The euro fell at the end of the trading day.

It is possible the price output from the range of 1.5320-5420 upwards within the British pound, but the movement can be muted by the expectations concerning the Tuesday inflation indices and the Wednesday Bank of England last meeting minutes publication - as the Monetary Policy Committee members supported the M.Karni’s idea to raise interest rates in the medium term.

The yen is becoming more expensive against the US dollar and the euro amid the Japan's GDP positive data that weakened expectations for taking stimulating measures by the Japanese Central Bank.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

A stronger than expected the 4th quarter Eurozone GDP preliminary data supported the market’s sentiment towards the pair. The pair is also supported by the negative market’s attitude towards the dollar. The pair growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and by the euro sales in the EUR/JPY.

Based on the medium-term trend bears are still dominant on the market. The pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.1300. After breaking 1.1300 the sellers may go to 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair is supported by the market’s negative attitude towards the dollar and the demand for the British pound in the declining euro/pound. The pair is also supported by the Bank of England Monetary Policy member statement  that the UK interest rates can be increased sooner than investors expect, as in the next two years inflation is expected to be close to the central bank's target level of 2.0%.

There was the resistance level of 1.5400 breakthrough amid the raised volume. But the pair couldn’t fixate above this level and it rebounded below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5400, 1.5500.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was not so much liquidity during the global trading day as the US financial markets did not work due to the national holiday.

The pair is under pressure because of the deteriorated relationship towards the dollar on the February consumer confidence preliminary index unexpected decrease, according to the University of Michigan, to 93.6 from 98.1 in January, with the growth forecast to 98.3.

The sharp prices decline from the resistance level of 120.40 was followed by the level of 119.20 breakthrough. The pair is decreasing towards 118.00 amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 119.20, 120.40.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The Euro group meeting results report was published where the Greece debt problems were discussed. As it became known Greeks refused to renew the assistance program on the same terms as the euro zone finance ministers rejected the Greek Government proposals contained earlier demands for changes in the current agreement. Against this background, the dollar rose sharply against the euro, the pound, and the yen.

It is worth noting that the dollar growth was restrained, apparently, because of the European authorities statements indicated that the issue could be still resolved on Friday as told the Euro group governor Dijsselbloem if "the Greek authorities are willing to undertake their obligations".

According to the statistics the US news line will be almost empty. Investors' attention can attract the NAHB report which is expected with the housing market index growth in February to 58 from the previous 57 that indicates the moods improvement among the housing market builders. As for the prospects, it is likely that the dollar will be traded under the European news influence where the economic calendar is much richer in content.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair is under pressure after the news that the latest negotiations round between Greece and its euro zone partners, concerning the financial assistance to the country, has suffered a sudden failure on Monday when Athens once again refused to ask for the current assistance extension program by 172 billion euro which expires on February 28.

The triangle upper bound testing of 1.1400 was followed by the price rebound downwards to the level of 1.1300. The pair did not reach this level and returned to the resistance level of 1.1400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks 1.1170 and 1.1040 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The January UK inflation will be in the center of our attention. It is forecasted the consumer price index (CPI) decline by 0.9%.

The pair is under pressure amid the investors increased risk aversion. The potential pair decrease was limited by demand for the British pound in the declining pair euro/pound.

The upward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.5400 from which was followed a slight rebound downwards and formed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5300 and 1.5200 soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese economic news was not published; the pair dollar/yen traded in the narrow range under the influence of the Japan stock and bond market events. As for the prospects, in the terms of tension increase related to the euro area conflict situation, interest to the yen as a refuge, apparently, is still preserved.

After the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough the price returned back to this mark, serving as a strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support levels of 118.00 and 117.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar fixed divergent results in the disputes with its main competitors. The dollar has grown against the euro and the yen and has fallen against the pound. Earlier the euro was supported by the economic data and the hopes that the Greeks and the Eurozone still will come to an agreement, because both sides expressed readiness to continue the dialogue.

The Japanese yen came under pressure amid the renewed US "Treasuries" bond yields growth and the neutral mood within the pound, formed due to the absence of negativity in the US inflation readings that was reduced, but only because of the energy prices decrease which is considered as a positive moment in an economic development.

The US statistics showed not so encouraging results. The New-York Fed manufacturing index fell in February to 7.78 from 9.95 in January while the components, indicating the possible prospects, also decreased - new orders fell to 1.22 from the previous 6.09 and the employment growth slowed to 10.1 from 13.7 last month. With the home builders sentiment decrease has been announced the National Home Builders Association report (NAHB) – the index fell down to 55 against 57 in January when it was expected a growth to the level of 58. These messages discouraged investors a little bit, still it has not caused the large-scale dollar sales.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The pair euro/dollar was supported by the ECB reports that the Bank will not stop the emergence Greek banks funding this week and Greece will request for the financial assistance program extension.

However, according to the ZEW the attitude towards the euro has deteriorated because of the weaker than expected sentiment indicators growth in the German economy.

Despite the level breakthrough of 1.1400, the price did not hurry to rise up to the correction. The pair fell under this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1520 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The attitude towards the pound declined after the UK annual inflation decrease to the minimum for more than 50 years to 0.3% in January from 0.5% in December that was in line with our expectations. The pair growth potential also restricts the British pound sales within the increasing pair euro/pound.

The last week maximum of 1.5300 served as a good support for the corrective pound. The formed consolidation above this level signals about the bullish trend continuation. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are two resistance levels of 1.5510 и 1.5620.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision was in the center of our attention on Wednesday. The central bank governor Mr. Kuroda said that there were no reasons to think about the additional mitigating measures. The pair is supported by the yen weakened attractiveness as a safe haven.

The two day consolidation around 118.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. The pair rose to the resistance level of 119.20. The trading volumes are in the downgrade zone.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement, and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 118.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The downward pressure on the USD was intensified after the not so encouraging economic indicators publication; taking into consideration the Fed Open Market Commission meeting minutes’ soft tone, the first interest rates growth is likely to be postponed until June. The US securities followed the dollar example; the 10-year bond yields fell from 2.15% to 2.08%. But surprisingly the protocols soft tone only worsened the situation, the main factor of exchange rate dynamics are negotiations between Greece and the EU.

The pair EUR / USD rebounded to 1.1415 after the Fed meeting minute’s publication, but it was unable to find enough buyers and moved into the consolidation phase. Even at the last moment the agreement between Greece and the EU can be the catalyst that will trigger the pair EUR/USD correction. The pair GBP/USD is stable near the more than one-month high against the US dollar as the US dollar remains under pressure. The pair USD/JPY fell to after the Fed news and it rebounded upwards to 118.96. The pair weakly responded to the favorable data on the trade volume changes and the Ministry of Finance week report.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The ECB increased its loan to Greek banks, approving the amount of 68.3 billion euros that gives Athens some time to reach an agreement with the international lenders. However, the euro got the supported from the Fed minutes and after their release the currency bloc increased and leveled losses against the dollar incurred earlier. Then the pair fell.

The continuous consolidation was at the level of 1.1400. The trade volumes are in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1300 further on we expect a growth to 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound slightly fell/ Nevertheless, the British pound strengthened against all of its major competitors. The pound was supported by the UK economic data that declared a high employment level.

The strong resistance level of 1.5400 was broken. The pair is consolidating above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5490.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The summarizing event was the US bank minutes announcement. The "minutes" soft tone provoked the dollar sales and then the yen has strengthened.

Previously, pressure on the pair came from the Kuroda’s statements, the Bank of Japan governor, who excluded additional monetary policy easing measures in the short term, but the Japan stock market growth supported the pair.


The US dollar slight decrease led to the prices decline to the level of 118.60. Then the pair grew and tested the mark of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.15, 117.15 soon.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair doolar-franc started the upward movement. The Swiss franc has slightly strengthened its position after the FOMC protocols. There are risks regarding the geopolitical situation in the FOMC meeting minutes on 27-28 January. Taking into account the low inflation and other risks, many committee members tend to the zero rate preservation for a longer period of time.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The negative emotions towards the dollar are exhausted after the Fed minutes publication. The market is again waiting for the new benchmarks and against this background the pair returned to the range trading.

The dollar was trading different directed s against its major competitors. The US economic data showed a mixed trend, but a part of the messages, relating to employment, provided some support for the dollar. Last week the initial jobless claims pointed to the labor market strengthening- the jobless claims decreased by 21 thousand up to 283 thousand when we expected a more solid figure- 290 thousand.

The Philadelphia Fed report witnessed the manufacturing sector activity slowdown to 5.2 in February from 6.3 in January, but the release component, noting employment, increased in this case - the index rose to the level of 3.9 against the previous 2.0.

The US economic meaningful statistics is not ready for output; the dollar will be under the European reports influence where the news background is much richer, both in terms of statistics and policy.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone news turned out to quite dull and the euro recovered its decline but in increased at the end of the trades. The France consumer price index showed -1.0% in January against the expected -0.9%. The euro zone payments balance was 17.8 billion euros in December against 19.9 billion in November while it was forecasted 23.3 billion euros.

Germany refused Greece to renew the loan agreement for six months on those considerations that Greece refuses to comply with the austerity measures. Nevertheless the Greece and the Eurogroupe came to an agreement.

The level of 1.1400 breakthrough was not followed by the strong euro growth against the US dollar. On the contrary, the trade has become a protracted consolidation within the levels of 1.1400 - 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1400, 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The January UK retail sales are expected with a decline by 0.1%. The public borrowing sector is projected with the demand decline by 9.5 billion pounds which has become a consistent pattern for January during the last five years.

The strong pound growth is paused for a short-term rebound at the mark of 1.5400. This level is already broken through downwards. Then the pair slightly increased and tested this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward potential target is 1.5300. If the price increases it will get to 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen is trading in the range with the 40 points amplitude. The Japanese long-term bond yields became balanced on the average three- to five-day levels, the medium-term bond yields continued to decline; the two-year bond yields have declined from the medium level of 0.045% to the level of 0.035% while the six-month bond yields have fallen from the last week medium level of 0.02% to the level of 0.005%.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar slightly strengthened against all of its major competitors. The US economic data marked a mixed trend, but a part of the messages, relating to employment, provided some support for the US dollar.

The pair dollar/franc easily broke through the level of 0.9340 after it tested the level of 0.9540. Then the pair decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

After reaching the Friday "truce" between Athens and the creditors on the Greece loans issue for four months under the guarantee of performing reforms, the market focused its attention on the J. Yellen two-day speech , the Federal Reserve governor which will be held on February 24 and 25. Yellen will announce her position to the economy state and maybe she will give a hint about rate saving to normalize monetary policy, followed by the rates increase.

If the Yellen speech result will be the US economy upward trend acknowledgement and the number of pessimistic characteristics is not going to be large - it will be a good signal to the fact that the Fed remains on the way to raise interest rates in the middle of this year. If this happens, the single currency and the yen clearly come out of the corridors in which they have already been the significant period of time and will continue to fall against the US dollar.

Difference in opinions, concerning the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve monetary policy is a negative factor for the yen. It is also important for the yen, but other additional factor will be the ECB government bonds real foreclosure which will expand its balance sheet and reduce the single currency price.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone finance ministers finally reached a compromise on the Greek debt. It is expected that the draft agreement will help to prolong the financial assistance program for 4 to 6 months with no obligations on the Greece part to comply with the austerity measures on which the Euro group insisted earlier.

There was the short-term strong support level of 1.1300 testing which was followed by the strong price rebound upwards. The price rebound was followed amid the very high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase target is the resistance level of 1.1400.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK published the retail sales report according to the British Industry Confederation. The index showed +1 after +39. This is the minimum since November 2013.

The pair GBP/USD still continues to be in demand on the dips, however, the pair failed to return above the fifty-fourth figure.

There was a short-term consolidation under the resistance level of 1.5400. This consolidation was followed by an active rebound upwards above this level against the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5510 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5620 .



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen declined amid the risk aversion last week as the Greek crisis current phase has forced investors to keep looking for a refuge. The information about the draft agreement between the Greeks and the Euro group provoked the pair reversal.

Sellers have tried to break through below the strong support level of 118.00 for three times last two weeks. There has been the price rebound upwards for three times.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 118.00. If the price grows it will get to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The European currency fell against the US dollar after the weaker than expected German Ifo index report. Janet Yellen’s speech did not move the market. Janet Yellen announced that the rates would be at the current level for a while.

The trades finished in favor of the US dollar which strengthened against the euro by 60 points, the volatility was 102 points during the day.

The Germany business sentiment indicators increased in February, but its results were lower than experts had forecasted. The Germany business sentiment index amounted to 106.8 points against 106.7 ones in January while economists had expected that it would be around 107.7 points.

The US dollar got under pressure amid the second housing market release, which, according to the National Realtors NAR Association, fell by 4.9% compared with December and amounted to 4.82 million of homes per year. Economists had expected in January sales of existing homes will be reduced to 4.98 million homes a year. Compared with the same period of the previous year the US second housing market sales rose by 3.2% in January.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech was not a surprise for the market. Traders expected that the rates would not be changed. According to the Ifo, the market’s attitude towards the euro was negatively affected by the smaller than expected the February business sentiment index growth in Germany.

After the continuous consolidation there was a little rebound. The pair made a strong support level of 1.1300 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1400, 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales weak data negatively affect attitude towards the pound in February. The growth potential is also constrained by the improving market relations towards the dollar and by the investors’ risk appetite weakening. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made his speech in front of the finance parliamentary committee.

The resistance level of 1.5400 breakthrough was followed by the active price rebound upwards. The price rebound from the level was without volumes. Then the pair tested the support level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.5510 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 1.5620 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair dollar/yen traded under the pairs’ selling pressure with the yen amid the risk appetite weakening. On Tuesday more than expected the secondary housing market sales decline affected the pair. Trades were cautious in anticipation of the Janet Yellen speech in front of the Senate Committee on the banking activities.

The trade within the Japanese yen is within the side corridor near 118.40 - 119.50. However, bulls still dominate due to the fact that the medium-term uptrend is still preserved within this market.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 119.20 for a steady growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main dollar disappointment was the US Federal Reserve governor speech. Janet Yellen in her comments made it clear that the regulator still kept thinking about interest rates increase, but she did not mention more or less explicit terms. In addition, Janet Yellen made it clear that even the January new jobs increase had not yet convinced the Fed that the labor market was stable and noted quite high inflation. Therefore, the market took her words as evidence that it is necessary to wait for a long period the low interest rates.

The Eurozone will not publish interesting statistics. Mario Draghi will make his speech, but it is unlikely that the ECB governor will say something new and different from what we had repeatedly heard. Therefore, the euro is likely to show us something special.

 The UK will not publish interesting macroeconomic data. Still the BOE Governor comments will influence the pair.

The pair dollar / yen will monitor the situation within the US housing market. The second Yellen’s speech is not much different from what she had said the day before. Therefore, the market will ignore this factor with a fairly high probability because everything stated by the Fed has actually built into the price. Anyway the primary housing market sales data can affect the market.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the Janet Yellen speech the market concluded that the US Central Bank was not inclined to hurry up with the interest rates increase. In particular she noted that the Fed would maintain a flexibility in raising rates issue and added that their increase at "the nearest pair of meetings is unlikely."

The price is still in the side corridor at the level of 1.1400 - 1.1300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1400. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1520.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

Apparently, the Bank of England chose not to focus its attention on the short-term inflation and made it clear that the next step would be the interest rates increase. The Yellen speech can affect the pair movement.

Due to the rebound from the support level of 1.5300 the British pound confidently continued its upward trend, breaking through the resistance level of 1.5400 on its way. The pair tested the resistance level of 1.5510.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5620.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the US Treasury bond yields decrease and the deteriorated attitude towards the dollar after the Fed chairman semi-annual speech in Congress. She noted economic improvement and reminded investors that the central bank was close to the borrowings cost increase.

The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks 119.20 up it will open the way to the level of 120.40 and then to 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.02.2015

Fundamental analysis

In the light of the Fed recent announcements all investors’ attention will be focused on the US economic data, namely the consumer inflation figures, durable goods orders, jobless claims, real wages and the US GDP.


It is expected that jobless claims will grow up, but not much, to 290 000 against 283 000. The main thing is that they remain below 300,000 which will point out to the continued strong upward trend in the labor market.

The January real wages data will play an important role. In December it increased by 0.2% and in January it is expected to rise by 0.3%. And, despite the fact that this figure is quite volatile, the overall salary dynamics increase indicates, although, the slow, but the US income recovery levels.

The US economic figures came out better then the forecast or even a little better and it returned expectation for the further interest rate increase in June to the markets and will have a positive impact on the US dollar. We would like to remind that on Tuesday and Wednesday J. Yellen persistently claimed that the interest rate increase deadlines will depend on the labor market and inflation statistics.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the pair euro/dollar was supported by the negative attitude towards the dollar and demand for the single European currency within the growing euro/yen amid the risk aversion weakening on the market. The euro growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and the euro sales.

The pair was growing from the support level of 1.1300 amid the low volumes. Nevertheless the pair could not continue the growth and sharply decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support level of 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pair GBP/USD maintained the market negative attitude towards the dollar, demand for British pound within the growing pair GBP/JPY amid the weakening risk aversion and demand for it within the falling euro/pound.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar quite confidently, breaking through the strong resistance level of 1.5510 on its way. Then the pair decreased to the support level of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the pair dollar / yen was under pressure from the market negative attitude towards the dollar (ICE Dollar Index reached 94.19 against 94.47 in the Wednesday morning ) as the Federal Reserve System chairman (FRS) Janet Yellen expressed quite careful position towards the interest rates. The Japanese exporters’ sales also put pressure on the pair. The pair potential reduction is limited by the Japanese importers demand and the Bank of Japan extremely soft policy.

The yen has been very sluggish and lowly volatile for the seven trading days. The last four days the trade has acquired a flat character around the uptrend line of 119.20.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar / franc potential reduction is limited by the franc sales within the growing pairs: AUS/CHF, NZU/CHF and CAD/CHF. It is also supported by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar rose strongly against the euro after the US core CPI showed the first increase in January compared to the same period of the previous year from October 2009. The trades closed in the US dollar favor which strengthened against the euro by 167 points; the trading volatility totaled 196 points last week.

According to the data, the US initial jobless claims rose by 31 thousand to 313 thousand from 15 till 21 February while economists had expected the number would remain at the level of 290 thousand.

The US inflation data added strong pressure on the market which fell by 0.7%, but the core CPI, which excludes the food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% in January that supported the US dollar in the afternoon.

The durable goods orders volume rose by 2.8% in January 2015 which is a very good sign for the US economic growth. These data also supported the US dollar as economists had expected increase only by 1.7%.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has fallen by 160 points. The formal and "official" reason was the root inflation index growth – the US consumer prices increased by 0.2% in January. The forecast was 0.1%.

Consolidation in the downward channel upper bound of 1.1400 led to the price rebound downwards and the support level breakthrough of 1.1300. Due to the formed breakthrough, the medium-term bearish trend has strengthened in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1040 and 1.0925 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound lost 120 points. We consider that the genuine reason for its decline lies in a sharp demand increase for European bonds which investors are actively buying before their repurchase by the ECB which will begin in March.

The active pound decline against the US dollar was followed from the resistance level of 1.5510. The price decrease was followed by the increased volumes and was suspended by the uptrend line of 1.5400.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 1.5510. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar is slightly declining against the yen after the Japan disappointing economic data release while demand for the US dollar weakened after the American statistics publication.

The trade within the Japanese yen has been in the bottom of the upward flat for the last two weeks.

The strong resistance level of 119.20 was broken upwards. The pair is trading towards to 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support levels of 119.20, 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has rapidly grown during the US session and reached the highest level since the day that the Swiss National Bank released the franc against the euro. The mixed statistics publication supported the dollar and the pair increased at the end of the last week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the last week dollar quite strengthening amid the market preparation to March when the ECB intends to launch the bond purchase program, the dollar is traded once again in its growth direction against the European majors. Most of the US economic messages announced the results within and above forecasts which allows the US dollar to keep balance after the news publication from other regions that are currently supported by its competitors.

The dollar and the yen opposition was not an exception - the US dollar continued its growth that started last week. In this case, the market was, probably, guided by the Japanese economic data which, in some way, possessed the opinion that the Japan Central Bank still would have to launch the softening program as well as the positive part of the US data which traditionally supports the pair dollar/yen.

The market volatility can grow amid the ECB and the BoE decisions at the meetings which will end on Thursday.

The dollar is also supported by the Fed top managers’ speeches (Bullard, Lockhart) and their statements showed that the Fed rate is firmly directed towards the monetary policy tightening.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market's attention will be focused on the US and European business activity index as well as on the new signals regarding the Federal Reserve future rate hikes.

Earlier the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said that he expected the Fed interest rates increase during the summer months, though, he believe that this decision would need additional confirmation from the macroeconomic data.

The signal for correction is the downward channel lower bound of 1.1170 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1300.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound is trying to intercept the US dollar initiative amid the confident macroeconomic indicators and the US Federal Reserve unclear position and the pound has a chance to strengthen against the US dollar this week.

The downward correction continues from the resistance level of 1.5510. There was the prices decrease amid the lower volumes which led to the uptrend line of 1.5400 breakthrough. This break signals towards the downward correction continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5300 testing soon.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen resumed its decline against the dollar amid the coming expectations that the continuing divergence in the Fed and the Bank of Japan monetary policy approaches will continue to put pressure on the yen against the dollar. It is known that the Japan industrial production rose up to 4% m/m in January while it was expected increase by 2.7% m/m.

There was the last week maximum of 119.85 update and the pair rose up to the psychological level of 120.00. The price fixed above the resistance level of 119.20. The volumes are in reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level of 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The beginning of the week was marked by the US dollar growth. The pair EUR/USD was in the flat near 1.1160-1.1245. The euro area inflation and unemployment positive releases could support the demand for the single European currency and at the moment quotations reached the level of 1.1245, but then traders closed their "longs" that caused the euro rebound. However the pair increased again.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the short positions profit taking at the cross-rate euro/pound as well as the US Treasury bond yields increase. The February UK manufacturing PMI was better than the forecasted medians, but traders did not hurry to open long positions. The pair EUR/GBP is in the oversold area that forced investors to withdraw partially from the short positions that put pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pair GBP/USD grew and is the flat.

Bulls dominated at market for the pair USD/JPY despite the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index has shown a decline for the fourth month in a row which is the first wake-up call for the US economy. Nevertheless, traders focused their attention exclusively on the stock market dynamics. The pair fell on the yesterday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

According to the Germany Federal Statistical Office, the January retail sales rose by 5.3% y/y, exceeding the estimates by 3.0%. Institutional investors ignored positive news that proves the bearish sentiment prevalence.


The mark of 1.1170 suspended the euro active reduction against the US dollar. The trade has moved into the low volatility framework.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1300. The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK construction sector business climate release. The index rose up to 60.1 from 59.1.

The UK 10-year government bond yields increased significantly in February relative to the US and Germany analogues which also confirms the upward trend for the pair.

The price has not reached the support level of 1.5300 to test its strength.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.

There is a non-confirmed and a week sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.5300. The upward bounce potential target are 1.5400, 1.5510.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan household expenditure negative statistics indicates to the wages increase that can cheer the bulls up for the long positions opening. Yesterday the world leading stock markets confidently increased which is also a bullish factor for the pair USD/JPY.

Before reaching the last month high that is the mark of 120.40, the price turned down for a correction. The US dollar sharp decline against the Japanese yen is not supported by the trading volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 119.20 further on we expect a growth to 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened after it was under. The pair EUR/USD has increased on the January Germany retail sales positive data. The total indicator came out much better than the consensus forecast and the Germans seem to be able to pull the Old World economy out of crisis. The oil prices increase also have a positive impact on the euro quotes. However the pair sharply fell after the US economic releases publication.

The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the Markit Economics construction sector positive release. The business climate indicator in this economic sector returned to 60% which indicates the UK economy strength. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has fallen.

Less of all the US dollar has increased with the Japanese yen. The Japan Ministry of Health, Welfare and Employment reported that the wages level slight increased in January that cheered bears to short. The correction in the US stock market has increased pressure on the USD/JPY which fell. The pair grew after new US economic data were published.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay our attention to the euro zone retail sales for January. The data came out slightly better than the forecasted medians that supported the euro. However, the pair euro/dollar encountered the bears’ resistance near the 12th figure and in this connection the quotations growth will be limited by this area.

The euro continues to fall against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and the low volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1040, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1040 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance levels of 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

This week Markit Economics has reported the UK manufacturing and construction sectors growth that allows to count on the service sector business climate positive data output.

The bond market can also support the "bulls": the UK 10-year bond yields increase, comparing to the US and Germany analogues, is a positive factor for the pair GBP / USD.

Sellers lowered their price to the key level and broke down the support level of 1.5300 amid the very low volumes and the low volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.5200 false test is more likely to lead to the level of 1.5300 return.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Traders’ attention will be focused on the ISM service sector. Only the data above 57.0 will support the US dollar, otherwise we will have a small rebound downwards. The oil quotations growth will also deter "bulls" from building up long positions. In the light of this we expect the lateral trend during the day.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 120.40 and 121.60. If the price falls it will get to 118.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has crushed its main competitors. The pair EUR/USD came under attack after the US ISM service sector positive release. In February the indicator rose to the level of 56.9 while the employment component rose to the level of 56.4 which is the highest value over the past three months and it allows us to count on the Non-Farm positive release on Friday 6 March. In addition, the dollar got the support from the ECB rates announcement and Mario Draghi’s speech. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar broke through the strong support level of 1.1040.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure. Markit Economics has reported about the business optimism index decrease in the US service sector while the same US index was better than the forecasted medians. The "black gold" tendency also added negativity to the overall picture in the market - the week US crude stocks have again increased which caused the major quotation reduction.

The technical correction in the US stock market did not allow the dollar to strengthen its positions with the Japanese yen. At the end of the trading day the key benchmarks decreased by 0.5% which constrained the bulls from active attack.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Yesterday’s main event was the ECB meeting results announcement and Mario Draghi’s perfomance. The easing monetary policy started to bear fruit - there was a high private sector credit growth in January. The euro low rate will reflect positively on the trade balance which eventually helped to reduce the unemployment rate to 11.2%. However, it is too early to talk about the economic rates growth.

The Eurozone inflation expectations are still quite low - the German 10-year bond yields are now near historic lows and this factor will put pressure on the pair EUR/USD.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0950, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1040 the next one is at 1.1170.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 1.0790. If the price grows it will get to 1.1170.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Gilts 10-year bond yields increase proves the best their hard work. The oil prices increase have a positive impact on the February and March CPI index. In the light of this, the regulator should not launch the monetary easing. The ISM service sector positive releases cheered bulls to short and now the US dollar looks as a favorite one.

The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields reached 150 basis points, indicating the downward trend continuation within the pair EUR/GBP. Apparently, this factor will deter the British pound from the strong prices decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan and the US bond yields show insignificant fluctuations and in this connection it does not form distinct signals. After the technical correction in the US stock market we expect the bulls return amid the US positive macroeconomic statistics. This factor shall support the pair.

The dollar growth against the yen looks uncertain. There was the strong resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough amid the low volatility and the weak volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential increase targets are two levels of resistance: 120.40, 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc is moderately weakening against the dollar. On Wednesday the US dollar updated historical highs after the solid data publication about the US employment market.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9340. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.46. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 11-year low. Investors still win back the beginning of the ECB quantitative easing program. The US and Germany 10-year bond yields once again greatly expanded and the Non-Farms release came out better then forecast that caused the pair euro/dollar quotations decrease.

The pair GBP/USD is also under pressure, but it decreased more modestly in comparison with the major currency pair. The Bank of England left the monetary policy unchanged, but the institutional investors’ bullish sentiment towards the US dollar did not allow the British pound to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has decreased.

The dollar growth was going on all fronts – the pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the day. The demand for the European risky assets and encouraged bulls to long and at the moment quotations reached the level of 120.90. However, the US jobless claims negative release cooled the bulls’ ardor but the employment rate in the US rose more than economists expected.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Last Friday main event was the February US labor market publication. The Non-Farm data output was better than it was forecasted. The positive publication was followed by the pair decrease. However, the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion will deter the bulls from the active attack.

Having consolidated below the level of 1.1040, sellers actively continued to decline the euro against the US dollar amid the increased volume. The mark of 1.0925 has been broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0790 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States released a set of important macroeconomic statistics. With regard to the non-farm payrolls release - the data output was better than the forecasted medians. The trade balance disappointed traders with its weak figures which can cause the short positions profit-taking wave.

After the strong support level of 1.5300 breakthrough which led to the bullish trend reversal, the first target was the mark of 1.5200 that had been already tested. The pair broke through the level of 1.5100 also.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4920 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Amid the US postive macroeconomic statistics - the bulls are going to break through the January maximum which is at the mark of 120.73. Simultaneous growth on the world leading stock markets indicates the high risk appetite which traditionally causes escape from the Japanese yen.

Buyers broke through and fixate above the last month maximum of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase after it reached the 6-week high of 0.9755 then the pair increased to the level of 0.9858. Its dynamics was affected by the US non-farm employment data results. The pair is supported with the large-scale improved market’s attitude towards the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

According to the February US labor market report the US economy has created 295 thousand of new jobs in February which significantly exceeded market expectations. Moreover, the overall unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to the level of 5.5%. The positive releases encouraged traders to long with dollar.

The greenback has lost some positions. Earlier the dollar strengthened along the whole market – at the end of the day the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 97.72 that has been the highest level since October 2003. The US Treasury bond yields increased up from the level of 0.64% to 0.72% on Friday - the bond market participants are guided by the Fed earlier monetary policy tightening. Fisher, one of the prominent Fed "hawks", talked about the interest rates increase at the June monetary regulator meeting last week.

The euro decline was intensified after the ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference where he specifically said that that QE may be kept and after the September 2016. The pair corrected at the yesyerday’s trades.

The pair GBP/USD decrease was intensified amid the dollar growth after the US labor market publication. Earlier the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. The rates remained at the level of 0.5% while the repurchase assets volume was around £ 375 billion as it was expected. Nevertheless the pound strengthened on Monday’s trades.

The dollar rose against the yen amid the US labor market positive report. Another factor that put pressure on the yen was the fact that China had established the economic outlook in 2015 at the level of 7% which was lower than the last year forecast of 7.5%. The Prime Minister Li Keqiang stated about it at the Parliament opening session.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the labor market release, according to which the unemployment rate fell down to 5.5%, the expectations regarding to the Federal Reserve monetary policy only increased The euro position looks unconvincing - the US and Germany 10-year bond yields increased by 17 basis points to the level of 185.8.

The US labor market positive fundamental data just strengthened the bearish EUR/USD trend. The pair slightly corrected from the last week minimums.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.0925. If the price falls it will get to 1.0790 and 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the bond market dynamics. Before the US Federal Reserve meeting which is scheduled for March 17-18, the Forex market will live with rumors about the imminent monetary policy tightening. We believe that this factor shall support the US dollar.

Sellers have broken through the two quite strong support levels: 1.5200 and 1.5100. The levels breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair turned upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5200, 1.5300.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

According to the revised data, the Japan GDP growth was 1.5% on the annual basis that is lower than the previously reported GDP growth preliminary data that was 2.2%. The economists’ forecasted 2.2% as well. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields increased by 13 basis points which is a strong bullish factor for the US dollar.

The US dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen, breaking through the strong resistance level of 120.30 amid the increased trading volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The first part of the week traders fixed the US dollar long positions profits - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.60. The pair EUR/USD could strengthen its position to the level of 1.0906 after significant sales, but then bears returned to the market. The German 10-year bond yields declined to the US and the UK analogues which determined the single European currency destiny.

On the contrary, at the beginning of the week the pair GBP / USD showed a growth. The pair’s sales encouraged bulls to long. The positive trend has been for two days then the pair returned to sales. The pair was trading different directed.

The negative trade balance data and the Japan GDP for the fourth quarter allowed traders to break through the resistance level of 121.60. Due to the net imports strong growth in January, we conclude that the Japan economy has been weakening, despite the strong yen devaluation which had to strengthen export. Nevertheless the pair could not fixate above the level of 121.60 and it fell below it.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We will pay attention to the bond market dynamics, namely to the 10- year government bond yields. The current US Treasuries and German bonds yields are at the level of 188 basis points which has been the highest level for the last 25 years which is a strong negative factor for the euro.

The short-term price rebound was followed by the further price decline. The potential bearish trend is still preserved despite the reduced volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0670, 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The dollar growth will negatively affect the "black gold" on the market. In this regard, the oil quotations reduction will further intensify pressure on the pound which is very sensitive to changes within the Brent varieties cost.

The British pound returned above the resistance level of 1.5100 after it broke through it downwards. The price rebound was at the reduced volume and reached the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5140. but the pair could not fixate above the level of 1.5100 and is trading under it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The fundamental background indicates the upward trend continuation. First, the Japan trade balance negative release for January shows the overall economy and the particular industrial production weakness. The second, the foreign exchange market is now living with rumors about the Fed monetary policy tightening and this factor strongly supports the dollar.

The resistance testing of 121.60 was followed by the very low volume. The pair returned under this level.

The strong divergence on the volumes signals towards the just formed reversal. However, the medium-term bullish trend is still relevant from the technical point of view.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading above the level of 120.40 buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 121.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak in the Forex market – the US dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.53. Yesterday the Germany 10-year bond yields renewed the historic low that caused the pair EUR/USD new sales wave. Now the single European currency is the most unloved investors’ asset. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased, having ended the trades at the mark of 1.0534.

The pair GBP/USD has followed its “older brother” and also finished the trading day in the negative area. The US dollar growth encouraged bears to short with Brent which contributed to the UK 10-year bond yields decrease. As a result, the trades within the pair GBP/USD ended with the price decline.

After the 122nd figure testing the traders started profit taking in the morning with the pair USD/JPY. Early in the morning Japan published the February machinery and equipment orders release which showed a growth to the level of 28.9% on the annual basis that allows us to count on the industrial production growth in March. As a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY was finished with the price slight increase.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is declining lower and lower and at the current time there are no factors that can change the negative trend. The oil quotations decrease sent the Germany10-year bond yields to the fresh historic low that intensifies the Old World deflationary expectations.

There is a significant difference in the ECB and the Fed monetary policy which makes dollar a winner within the pair.

The price reduction takes place at the increased level that signals towards the increased interest in sales.

The price is finding the support at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect soon the January UK industrial production release. The PMI manufacturing sector moderate growth indicates the data within the forecasted medians that will not provide a significant support to the British pound.

Once again the US and the UK 10-year bond yields have expanded; the Brent crude oil decreased amid the US dollar revaluation that is a bearish factor for the British pound.

The trade continues below the resistance level of 1.5015 and towards the downward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.4800.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The sales wave swept across the US stock market which is a negative factor for the pair dollar / yen. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction can also encourage bears to short.

The mark of 121.60 - 121.80 is the maximum in 2014. No wonder why there is a corrective price rebound downwards from this level now. It is worth noting that the price rebound was on the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

13.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its aggressive way against the main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.76. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 12-year low and then corrected. Investors continue to get rid of the Euro amid the increasing expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy that led to the USA and Germany bond yields significant expansion. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar slightly increase at the end of the day.

The UK industrial production fell by 0.1% in January which cheered bears to short. After breaking through the support level of 1.5033, the pressure on the pound was intensified and quotations have fallen down to the level of 1.4895 after where the pair rebounded. As a result, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD finished with the prices decline.

After the technical correction the USD/JPY bulls returned to the market and opened long positions at the attractive levels. This day there was not published Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics – traders bought the US dollar as it is now a leader in the Forex market. As a result, the trading day within the pair dollar/yen finished with the quotations growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is heavily undervalued now. On the other hand, the United States released the retail sales report. We count on the retail sector high demand amid the labor market positive data. In the light of this we may expect the bearish trend continuation. The US and German 10-year bond yields are testing the multi-year highs.

Unilaterally, the US dollar weakened against the euro. The downtrend is followed with a slight correction amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0670 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the UK January trade balance release and the Bank of England governor’s speech. The pound strong quotations growth against the euro makes the British goods less competitive in the Old World.

On the contrary, the United States can please traders with the retail sales positive data.

The price declined amid the increased volume which led to the strong support level of 1.4920 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5015. The approach to the level of 1.5015 may lead to a price rebound down.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US positive macroeconomic statistics will encourage bulls to long. Investors have again "risk appetite" that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.

The upward trend near the resistance level of 121.60 was stopped. The formed consolidation below the level will lead to the downward correction in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar continued to strengthen against the Swiss franc and rose above the parity value, rising close the level of1.0160.

However, the upward impulse was not strong enough and it could not move above the rate.
Additional pressure on the franc received amid the rumors that the Swiss National Bank considered the key interest rate decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

16.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened against its major competitors after a slight decrease - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics. The retail sales release disappointed traders with its weak data which the profit taking. However the pair euro/dollar has again decreased at the end of the day.

The oil prices, the UK and the US bond yields decrease provoked the British pound bearish rally. The EUR/GBP "shorts" closing also added negativity to the bulls within the "cable". At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.

The pair USD/JPY has shown a side tendency. The US retail sales negative release lowered the quotations to the mark of 120.65 where bulls started to long based on the uptrend continuation. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The dollar index basket (USDX) reached the level of 100.06, indicating the steady bullish trend. However, the US retail sales weak release can cool the bears’ enthusiasm. The dollar revaluation with the low consumer demand threatens the inflation growth. In this regard, we expect the FOMC conservative rhetoric on March 18 that can trigger the mass shorts fixation with the euro/dollar.

The downtrend might be stopped at the level of 1.0500 in the short term. There was formed the upward correction to the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0670 from this level. Then the pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.0670 and broke through the level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0420, the next one is at 1.0280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.0670 for a correction growth. If the price fixates below the support 1.0420, it may continue the downward trend in the short term.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the downward trend development. The US moderately positive macroeconomic statistics will support small demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are reducing in relation to its main German and the US competitors which is a bearish factor for the "cable".

The strong resistance level of 1.4800 which has recently acted in a supporting role was broken downwards amid the strong volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4920.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market responded positively to the poor statistics as the retail sales decrease will restrain inflation and thus the Fed will not rush to tighten the monetary policy. The best example of this situation is the US Treasury bonds market - after publication the government 2-years securities fell sharply downwards which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate.

The whole week the trade has been held towards the sideway channel, the key level is the mark of 121.20.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 121.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The pair is under pressure from the deteriorated market’s attitude towards the dollar and demand for the Swiss currency within the growing pair franc/yen. The pair potential reduction is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales and the correction position.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0290.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar stopped its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 100.20, setting earlier the fresh 11-year high. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure due to the energy prices decrease. The Brent oil quotations fell by 4.4%. Against this negative background, the pair euro/dollar decreased. Nevertheless the pair recovered some losses at the end of the day.

The UK 10-year bond yields decrease to its US and Germany increased pressure on the GBP/USD. The oil market sales and the British pound strong growth against the euro make the Mark Carney’s statements about the UK monetary policy easing very realistic. However after a decrease the pair pound/dollar grew.

On the first trading day the US dollar managed to strengthen against its Japanese competitor – the pair USD/JPY showed a consolidation at the end of the day. This symbolic increase is explained by the US stock market weakness after the US producer price index negative macroeconomic statistics and the consumer sentiment releases from the University of Michigan.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing index has been showing decline for four consecutive months, indicating the industrial production slowdown. Mark that the ISM manufacturing sector employment component fell to its lowest level in February since April 2014.

The euro has been actively updating the price lows the third week in a row. The price decrease was followed with the increased volumes. The pair slightly grew and broke through the resistance level of 1.0550.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued amid the Chief of the ECB M. Draghi’s speach. The pair may go to 1.0420 and 1.0280 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The cross-rate EUR/GBP short positions closing will put little pressure on the British pound. However, the US industrial production moderately negative release for February will deter bears from active sales. The UK bond yields declined in relation to the US and Germany analogues, indicating the low demand for the British pound.

The downward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.4730. Taking into consideration the first trading day weak volatility, the correction was formed. The resistance level of 1.4800 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks of 1.4650, 1.4500 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Risk appetite returned to investors which will support the demand for the pair. However, today we should not count on the strong price growth – the US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will act as a deterrent for the bulls. Industrial production is a cyclical indicator and its reduction indicates the economic growth slowdown.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 122.40. If the price falls it will get to 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.55. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The industrial production release went worse than the forecasted medians that cheered bulls to long. In the light of this, the pair euro/dollar increased at the end of the day.

During the day the GBP/USD was in demand as well. The US industrial production weak macroeconomic statistics once again showed that the Fed does not need to rush the interest rates increase. However, at the end of day the pair GBP/USD quotations decreased.

Yesterday there was the lateral trend within the pair USD/JPY. On the one hand, the US industrial production weak release is a negative factor for the bulls. On the other hand, the more negative releases now come from overseas the more likely that the Fed will again hold conservative views and this factor will support the demand for the stock markets.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the German ZEW index data publication. In March the ZEW current conditions index changed to 55.1 from 45.5 while the ZEW expectations index increased to 54.8 from 53.0. In addition the euro area data showed that the CPI came out with the + 0.6% m/m -0.3% y/y in February.

There was a corrective price rebound upwards from the support level of 1.0455 with the following level of 1.0550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.0670. If the price falls it will get to 1.0420.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields have been declining for four consecutive trading days regarding to their US and Germany counterparts that is a negative factor for the "cable" and will put pressure on the British pound. The low oil prices make the UK key rate decline a real event and against this background we mark the bearish sentiment predominance.

The corrective growth broke through the resistance level of 1.4800. The pair was not able to fixate above this level and decreased below it. The upward correction volumes were in the reduced zone.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.4800 may lead to a price consolidation followed by a rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan governor, Kuroda said that the probability of inflation increase to 2% in 2015 is very high. The salaries increase is important for the inflation growth to 2%. Kuroda noted that the oil prices decline was unexpected, the oil prices decrease influences the inflation in Japan that will be weakened by autumn.

More than a week the price has been consolidating below the resistance level of 121.60. This fact gives a good signal for the further bullish trend confirmation.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main market attention was directed to the Fed meeting release and to the Ms. Yellen speech. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates. Yellen’s speech did not support the dollar and it fell temporally. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the Germany business climate moderately positive release from the ZEW institute. The indicator has been showing growth for 5 consecutive months and went out to the highest level since February 2014. The release points out to the investors’ positive expectations about the Eurozone locomotive prospects. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar increased.

Yesterday the pair GBP/USD was under pressure as well. The EUR/GBP short positions closing has increased after the ZEW institute publication which caused the pound decrease. But then bears took profit that caused the technical rebound in the market. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD grew.

The pair USD/JPY has been in a narrow flat for three trading days. At the end of the day the US weak macroeconomic statistics supported bears.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The key week day has come for the entire Forex market. Late at night the Fed announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The inflation, retail sales and industrial production macroeconomic releases clearly point out to the lack of appropriate monetary tightening.

The level of 1.0550 breakthrough was followed by the price increase to the resistance level of 1.0670. The level testing has led to the consolidation formation. Then the break upwards though this level happened.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0790 the buyers may go to 1.0925.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes did not support the British pound. In early March the unemployment reduction with the average earnings growth have intensified the UK inflation expectations. From the American monetary regulator, on the contrary, we expected "pigeon" rhetoric in relation to the monetary policy tightening.

The support level of 1.4650 has twice stopped the sellers. The first level testing was followed by a slight correction upwards; the second one has led to the short-term consolidation and a sharp increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4880.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward moveent and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The trading has been held for seven days amid the weak volatile consolidation in anticipation of the strong news – the Fed economic forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC statement, the Fed Chairman Yellen speech which came out yesterday. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates changes. Yellen’s vague statements did not support the dollar at all.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 120.40, 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The trading week central event was news when the FED announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The weak macroeconomic statistics does not leave the FED any choice but not to rush with the interest rate growth.

The Fed lowered its forecast to the current year average rate: 0.625% instead of 1.125% as it was expected in December 2014. The GDP and inflation forecasts for the next three years also have been decreased. The FOMC governor Janet Yellen pointed out to the strong dollar as the main reason for the weak exports. Against this background, we have seen massive longs closure within the US dollar and the main dollar competitors’ strong growth. However the dollar recovered at the yesterday’s trades.

The Eurozone has not published any important reports. Of course the US Federal Reserve accompanying statement will contribute to the dynamics. But now we should not count on the euro substantial growth because of the fact that the difference in the regulators’ sentiments is too high. The trades on the EUR/USD closed with a decrease.

The UK has not published any important report. It should also be noted that the salary average level data showed a decline, suggesting the inflation pressure further decrease, although, the pound has showed its growth. The growth was short-term and the pair pound/dollar decreased again.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Fed has sent the dollar into the knockout. The shorts global closure at forex and commodity markets indicates the US dollar corrective movement development. The United States has published the last year payments balance report for the 4th quarter. During this period the US dollar has risen by 5% in relation to its main competitors (USDX) which has a negative impact on the trade balance. Nevertheless, the dollar recovered its losses.

Buyers were able to revise the price to 1.0925. The test turned out to be short-term and was followed by the active decrease. The support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 were broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0550.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The 4th quarter payments balance weak release will increase pressure on the dollar. Traders significantly overestimated the UK labor market moderately negative release. The unemployment remained at the same level as the average earnings have declined, but the employment growth by the ILO methodology indicates the positive trend continuation the next months.

The pair pound/dollar has tested the strong resistance level of 1.5100 for its strength. The level testing was at the increased volume, but without breakthrough. The pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920, 1.4800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market responded positively to the FOMC meeting results. The Fed does not rush to tighten monetary policy and bulls once again rushed to the stock market. Institutional investors will continue to be funded with the cheap yen which will put pressure on the Japanese currency. The US payments balance negative release will freeze the bulls’ enthusiasm for a time. However, the pair grew again.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision can affect the pair USD/CHF dynamics. It is expected that the central bank will maintain the same position. The pair is under the market negative attitude pressure, demand for the Swiss franc within the growing pair franc/yen and the Switzerland ZEW economic sentiment indicator growth to -37.9 in March from -73.0 in February.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

We saw the volatility hike within the major pairs last week. After the US dollar strong weakening and the Fed meeting results announcement- the dollar was able to compensate some of the lost. Investors again rushed to long with the US dollar at the attractive levels. Only the 4th quarter US last year payment balance release is worth noting - the deficit increased by 113.5 billion dollars which confirms the dollar negative revaluation effect for the economy. The current year first quarter also does not promise anything good to the US and against this background, the remaining spring months the US dollar will be extremely difficult to rise up.

The euro market the was determined after the fact that the ECB launched the quantitative easing program. The liquidity injections will put pressure on the European currency for a long time.

Great Britain stands almost on the same level with the United States in regard with the regulators’ attitude towards the monetary policy course. Although Carney said that there was no reason to rush with the monetary policy tightening, the situation could change at any time and the Bank of England may start the interest rate increase.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

By the end of 2014 the US payments balance had increased by 412.93 billion dollars. The UK and Germany 10-year negative bond yields continued their decline which can spur demand for the EUR/GBP cross-rate and this face is positive for the euro.

The US dollar returned back its position on the increased volume. The price decreased to the support level of 1.0670. The pair rebounded from this level and rose above the resistance level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields are rapidly falling relative to their United States and Germany counterparts which put pressure on the "cable". However, if the Brent crude oil quotes begin an upward movement, the pound will also be able to compensate some lost ground.

The price decline was on the increased volume and it decreased to the support near 1.4800. The price has broken the support level of 1.4800 for five times, but for short time. This time the pair rebounded upwards again and broke through the resistance level of 1.4800 and 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics traders may focus their attention to the bond market dynamics. The FOMC "dovish" rhetoric opens the way for the US stock market to the new highs that will strengthen demand for the risky assets and therefore the "safe- haven" yen will be unattractive for traders.

Sellers tried to break through the strong support level of 120.40. But the pair could not fixate below and rebounded upwards. The growth was short term and the pair fell again and broke through the support level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The market’s negative attitude towards the franc is caused by the Swiss National Bank decision, made up on the last week, to leave interest rates at the level of 0.75%, its inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016 and the bank statement about its readiness to prevent the franc growth. The pair is also supported by the market improving attitude towards the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 98. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. On Friday traders continued to take profits with longs. Last week the Federal Reserve made it clear to investors that a strong dollar is an obstacle to the sustainable economic growth. In the light of this traders got rid of the US dollar and there was a steady demand for the major currencies. The pair EUR/USD has grown, the pair GBP/USD consolidated, and the pair USD/JPY decreased at the end of the day.

The current week economic calendar must be in favor of the US dollar. According to the IMM CFTC the market is still holding excessively long dollar positions. Disappointment in the business activity or inflation can bring to the next phase the dollar longs reduction in the short term. However, the dollar should keep the bullish trend in the medium-term, taking into consideration the monetary policy difference between the US and the major competing countries.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

This week we expect the Germany economic indicators activity and the US inflation publication. Traders do not rush with the positions opening amid the coming news. At the end of the last week, the euro showed a steady growth which lays a good foundation for the positive trend continuation.

Buyers have come to the resistance level of 1.0925 for the second time on the increased volume and broke it upwards. The formed consolidation in this level area can cause a slight rebound downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790. The support level of 1.0790 testing will be followed by the euro growth.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector shows a growth that allows us to count on the British Industry Confederation positive release. On the contrary, the United States will not please traders with the strong macroeconomic data. It is observed the Germany and the UK 10-year bond yields reduction on the bond market which will act as a deterrent for the bulls.

The pair is trading around the level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

Investors still have "risk appetite" which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. American benchmarks are set to test the historic highs which is a bullish factor for the pair. The current levels are attractive for investors who count on the uptrend continuation.

The pair broke through the channel lower bound of 120.40-122.00 and continues its corrective decline.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 119.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar has opened the trading week on the minor noteб but showed a different directed trades on the yesterday’s trading - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.17. The pair EUR/USD was again the growth leader still the dollar managed to regain some ground yesterday. The Germany and the US bond yields reduction increased the euro bullish sentiment. We got the CPI from the United States. The PPI and the retail sales negative releases did not allow us to count on the strong data release.

During the day the GBP/USD on the contrary remained under pressure. The British Industry Confederation has reported the production orders reduction due to the "cable" revaluation. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4837, but then there was a rebound in the market. The UK and the US 10-year negative bond yield spread are declining which is a positive factor for the British pound.

In the dispute between bulls and bears the winner was not revealed during the day. The US secondary market housing sales negative macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to short. However, the US stock market growth held back the yen from the strong growth.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders’ attention will be focused on the Germany PMI manufacturing sector release. The single European currency devaluation with the geopolitical tensions decrease is positive factors for the manufacturing sector. We expect the data output at the level or slightly better than the forecasted medians that will support the pair.

The euro strengthened against the US dollar. Its active growth was followed by the resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough. The pair could not fixate above this level and fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound upwards.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

During the day traders may win back the UK and the US inflation releases.

Last week the Bank of England signaled to traders that the inflation increase is directly proportional to the wages rapid growth. Taking into account the fact that the UK average salary decreased in January it is now extremely difficult to expect the inflation surge.

Buyers do not hurry to continue the upward trend after the level of 1.4920 breakthrough. The price rebounded downwards and the trade stopped under the resistance level of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4800, 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US negative macroeconomic statistics that we receive more recently deprives the dollar support. The inflation release for February also will not please traders with the strong data. On the other hand, demand for the risky assets is still preserved which is a negative factor for the low-yielding Japanese yen.

The pair dollar/yen consolidated near the psychological level of 120.00. Then the support level of 119.20 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar could compensate some of the lost positions, but then it fell again - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.15. The pair EUR/USD tested the psychological level of 1.1000 amid the Germany manufacturing PMI positive release. The indicator exceeded the annual average which indicates the manufacturing sector positive trend development. Traders fixed profits with the long positions as a result there was a technical rebound. The downward rebound was short-term and the pair increased again.

The GBP/USD was under pressure trying its very best to reach the level of 1.5015. The UK inflation slowed down to the level of 0% on the annualized basis in February which encouraged bears to short.

The pair USD/JPY has been trading in the flat. The UK inflation report coincided with the traders’ expectations and against this background traders closed short positions which allowed the US dollar to demonstrate its growth to the level of 119.97 at the moment. However, the US stock market weakness did not allow bulls to finish the trading day on the positive note.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Our attention will be drawn to the IFO institute publication. The ZEW and PMI indicators show the optimistic sentiment predominance in the German business community. We received positive data. The bond market trend also confirms the upward movement development. The Germany and the US 10-year negative bond yields are declining which is a positive factor for the euro.

There was the level of 1.0925 testing. The pair did not fixate under this level and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expect the US durable goods orders publication. American consumers are now set to save more than spend and in this regard it is difficult to count on the strong data. We still cannot count on the strong quotations growth. The pair EUR/GBP cross-rate quotations growth amid the UK and Germany negative bond yields reduction had a negative impact on the pound.

The pair rebound from the resistance level of 1.4920 led to the consolidation formation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4650 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US macroeconomic statistics will not be able to please traders with strong data which is a negative factor for the dollar. The day before there has been the lack of investors' risk appetite which traditionally causes demand for the Japanese yen as traders close their positions within the carry trade.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 119.20 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 120.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar recovered after it was again under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.97. During the day the pair EUR/USD once tested the level of 1.1050 after the US durable goods orders weak data publication. However, bulls were unable to consolidate near this level and as a result the day ended with the quotations fall.

The British Bankers' Association mortgage lending positive report along side with the US negative statistics let the pair GBP/USD close the trading day in the "red zone" – the British pound has fallen.

The pair USD/JPY was dominated by the bullish sentiment. The durable goods orders decline in the United States has increased pressure on the US stock market which has caused the demand for the Japanese yen. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has grown.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Investors will focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. The 10-year Germany/USA and Germany/UK negative bond yields have reduced which is a positive factor for the euro. It is also necessary to note the "black gold" price increase which is also a positive factor for the single European currency.

After the price consolidation below 1.1050 and this level test the pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support level of 1.0790.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0790, 1.0670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the February UK retail sales release. Leading indicators pointed out to the moderately positive data output and the release came out better then the forecasted medians. The 10-year UK bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany analogues which is a bearish factor for the British pound.

The consolidation was followed by the pound growth. Then the pair decreased. Trades are held below the downward trend line of 1.4920.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar rose at the end of the trades. We shall pay our attention to the stock market dynamics. The risky assets demand continues to decline, contributing to the bearish trend development. In the light of this, the Japanese yen will feel like "fish in water."

There was the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough. The bears strengthened their positions amid this breakthrough. Nevertheless, the pair increased above this level.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 120.40.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

There has been published the Switzerland February consumer activity indicator by UBS - it showed 1.19 against 1.11 in January. The Swiss franc changed a little bit against the dollar after the release output. We should note that the franc closed the trades with its decrease relative to the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.03.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.65. The pair EUR/USD showed an increase to the level of 1.1052 amid the strong demand for crude oil, but then bulls took profits that caused quotations decrease near 1.0830. At the end of the day the pair euro / dollar has decreased.

The UK retail sales positive release encouraged bulls to long. At the moment quotations reached the mark of 1.4993, but bulls failed to consolidate in this area as a result we had a technical rebound. However, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD ended with the quotations increase.

The pair USD/JPY was trading in a side corridor. Sales in the global stock markets intensified investors’ escape into the safe assets amid the lack of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen has decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro is consolidating near the strong level of 1.0925 which indicates the pressure from the bears’ part. We should note that the long-term trend is a downward one. The US GDP third (final) assessment was not able to please traders. The dollar revaluation has a significant negative impact on the US economy.

The local maximum update of 1.1050 led to the price reversal downwards. The price has consolidated under the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can fall to the support level of 1.0790.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK retail sales positive report shows the private consumption growth which is a positive factor for the economy. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney once again stated in his speech at the Bundesbank conference that the next step from the Bank of England part would be the interest rates increase. Mark Carney also said that the life standard recovery in the US is stronger than in the UK.

The upward correction, formed from the support level of 1.4650 is gradually turning to a consolidation. The key support is the mark of 1.4800.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.

The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan consumer price inflation has been slowing for eight month in a row; it raises expectations that the Bank of Japan will take additional monetary policy easing measures to achieve the inflation target. The consumer price index rose in February compared to the last year level of 2.0% which is below the forecasted medians of 2.1% and is lower the growth by 2.2% in January.

The price is finding the support at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 118.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc resumed its increase against the dollar. Earlier the franc fell after the Swiss central bank representative Silvan Tsurbryugg said that the SNB was ready to intervene "at any time", the Swiss franc was greatly overvalued. And Silvan Tsurbryugg does not expect "the long term negative inflation", he is confident that the economy would cope with the strong franc effect.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.