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US dollar is trying to resist the decline amid statistics and high inflation

The US currency has to fight the collapse again at the end of the week, resisting the negative impact of several factors, including the problem of macro statistics. Nevertheless, experts are confident that it will recover without much loss.

For a long time, this currency remains hostage to high US inflation. It can be recalled that the December macro statistics showed the highest core inflation over the past 40 years. The recent US CPI excluding food and energy in annual terms was 5.5%, which is higher than November's 4.9%. Current macro reports have shown that the expectation of the Fed's decisive action has reached a peak. The current situation practically sharply affected the US dollar, which is trying to resist the impact of negative factors.

It has now suffered significant losses, including a key technical breakthrough in the EUR/USD pair. On Thursday, the classic pair broke the resistance line around 1.1386, which limited the actions of the EUR/USD pair since November 2021. The reason for this is the sharp weakening of the US currency, recorded after the release of the December CPI. On Friday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.1477, trying to keep its won positions.

Experts consider the level of 1.1500 to be the next important resistance area for the pair. This is the previous low of the EUR/USD pair recorded before its massive collapse last November. The current situation is much the same. Today, the US dollar hit its biggest weekly drop in eight months. The reason for this is a sharp reduction in long positions on the USD and the markets taking into account several Fed rate hikes in its price.

According to analysts, expectations of decisive action from the Fed do not matter much for the US dollar. Earlier, the US currency collapsed amid a sharp rise in the price of a number of commodities. The only "trump card" it has now will be another search for a safe haven if risk sentiment changes dramatically. The dynamics of this currency are significantly affected by inflation, and most often negatively. The Fed keeps the need to outpace its growth, and this tension has a negative impact on the American currency.

However, many experts are optimistic about the US dollar's medium and long-term prospects. Specialists believe that it will systematically strengthen, alternating ups and downs. Analysts summarize that this is facilitated by the continued growth of commodities and the global asset market.

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US dollar is looking for support to rise again

The US dollar started the new week with multi-directional dynamics. It remains between two contradictory actions. In such a state, experts say that it is difficult for the US currency to rise, but there is also no reason for it to decline.

At the end of last week, the above-mentioned currency surprised the markets by making sharp multi-directional movements in an attempt to consolidate with the status of a protective asset. However, these efforts were unsuccessful. Currently, the US dollar has regained some equilibrium, although some unorganized dynamics remain.

The Fed's hawkish intentions regarding multiple rate hikes this year have contributed to the US dollar's multi-directional movements. Against this background, it held to the previous rebound in the EUR/USD pair, as investors included several rate increases in its price. Experts said that the aggressive rhetoric of the regulator contributes to a sharp strengthening of the US dollar, combined with an increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The current yield on ten-year Treasuries has risen from the previous 1.772% to 1.793%. Experts believe that this provides additional support to the US currency.

On Monday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading in the range of 1.1418-1.1419, trying to rise slightly. However, it is hard for it to reach new peaks right now.

Experts note the predominance of the "bearish" mood in the EUR/USD pair, which was facilitated by the breakdown of the mirror level of 1.1465 last Friday. At this point, the bulls are trying to control the situation. Their offensive will be successful if the levels of 1.1478 and 1.1529 are reached. However, the "bullish" scenario is likely to be canceled if the bears consolidate at the support level of 1.1401. In this case, the path towards the levels of 1.1353 and 1.1285 will be open.

According to experts, multiple increases in the Fed's interest rates in 2022 are necessary to avoid overheating the US economy. If overheating occurs, financial crises are possible, which will have a devastating impact.

Markets are still worried about the extremely high level of US inflation (7% in annual terms). According to preliminary estimates, this is three times higher than the pre-pandemic. The reasons for this growth are active monetary stimulus, the disruption of supply chains amid COVID-19, and problems in the US labor market, including higher wages due to a shortage of workers and more frequent job changes.

Experts consider raising the interest rate of the Fed as one of the main ways to curb US inflation. Most market participants expect this in March 2022, although some expected it to rise at the next meeting of the regulator, scheduled for January 26. Analysts admit that the Fed's strategy may be more aggressive than expected. The implementation of such a scenario will direct inflation downwards, but will significantly affect US economic growth.

Currently, the US currency is trying to rise and consolidate in an upward trend. However, these actions are held with varying success. Concerns about its further decline are provoked by the rising bearish mood on the EUR/USD pair. Traders built up positions for three weeks to buy the US dollar, and then changed tactics to the opposite. Throughout the previous week, large investment funds have reduced USD purchases by 5%. Experts conclude that the continuation of the current trend contributes to the US dollar's further decline.

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European stock markets closed trading with strong growth

The Chinese economy grew 4% in the last quarter of 2021 compared to the same period of the previous year, the weakest increase since the second quarter of 2020, data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC showed. GDP growth slowed down from 4.9% in the previous quarter, however, exceeded the forecasts of experts who had expected growth of 3.6%.

In 2021 as a whole, Chinese GDP increased by 8.1%, which exceeded the country's target of "above 6%". In 2020, according to revised data, the country's economy grew by 2.2%, and not by 2.3%, as previously reported.

The composite index of the largest companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 region rose by 0.7% by the close of trading and amounted to 484.51 points.

The French CAC 40 added 0.82%, the German DAX - 0.32%, the British FTSE 100 - 0.91%. Spain's IBEX 35 and Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.36% and 0.52%, respectively.

Unilever Plc, one of the world's leading food and home goods manufacturers, has made its third offer to acquire a joint venture between GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) PLC and Pfizer Inc. for the production of consumer health products for 50 billion pounds ($68.4 billion). Unilever lost 7% and GSK rose 4.1%.

The Spanish bank Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA will return more than 7 billion euros to its shareholders in 2021 and 2022. In particular, the bank plans to complete a €3.5 billion share buyback program launched last year and pay dividends for two years. Banco Bilbao's share price rose 0.3%.

Shares of Air France-KLM added 0.6%. The air carrier has asked the EU authorities to make more flexible rules for the use of slots (the period of time that an airport allocates an aircraft for takeoff or landing - IF) at the region's airports amid restrictions imposed on flights due to COVID-19.

Share prices of Credit Suisse Group AG fell 2.3% on news that the bank's chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio is leaving his post after violating covid restrictions.

The value of British pharmaceuticals Clinigen Group PLC fell 0.8% after it became known that Triton Funds was buying the company for 1.3 billion pounds ($1.78 billion).

Fraport AG lost 0.5%. Frankfurt am Main Airport (Germany), operated by Fraport, served 24.8 million passengers in 2021, which is 32.2% higher than the previous year, when passenger traffic collapsed by 73% and reached its lowest level since 1984. Meanwhile, passenger traffic remains 64.8% below pre-pandemic 2019, according to a Fraport press release.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 19, 2022

Here are the details of the economic calendar on January 19, 2022:

The only news in the macroeconomic calendar yesterday was the indicators on the UK labor market, which came out not bad at all. Here, the unemployment rate declined from 4.2% to 4.1%. At the same time, the number of applications for benefits in the period of December fell by 43.3 thousand, with a forecast of 38.6 thousand.

Only the employment data have a different result. It only rose by 60 thousand against the predicted growth of 125 thousand. Meanwhile, the growth of wages slowed down from 4.9% to 4.2%, which is noticeably worse than the forecast of 4.3%. This served as clear negativity in the report.

As a result, the overbought pound did not react in any way to the report on the labor market and continued to decline.

In terms of the information flow yesterday afternoon, reports began to arrive about a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in Germany. This was the impetus for speculation in the market, which led to a sharp weakening of the euro.

January 19 economic calendar:

The UK's inflation data was published today at 7:00 Universal time, where it rose from 5.1% to 5.4%, with a forecast of 5.2%. Rising consumer prices once again prove that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates.

During the US trading session, the construction sector data of the United States will be published. The number of building permits issued, as well as the volume of construction of new homes, is expected to fall.

This is not the best signal for the US economy, but it is still unknown whether this will be a signal for the US dollar to sell-off.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 19:

There is currently a small pullback, which is more like a price stagnation in the range of 1.1310/1.1335. Therefore, it is worth considering an acceleration strategy, where the current stagnation will serve as a lever in the market.

We concretize the above details into trading signals:

Sell positions should be considered after holding the price above 1.1340 with the prospect of moving to 1.1370.

Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.1310 with the prospect of moving to 1.1280.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on January 19:

In this situation, a stagnation-pullback relative to the level of 1.3600 is possible. This move is still considering the possibility of resuming upward inertia, which will lead to a complete change of trading interests.

At the same time, to prolong the correction, it is enough to stay below the level of 1.3570. This step will open up the possibility of a recovery move towards the level of 1.3450.

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Most Asia-Pacific indicators show growth

Today most of Asian indicators demonstrate growth. The Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng indices were up by 0.29% and 2.34% on the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges. Meanwhile, another Chinese indicator - the Shenzhen Composite - declined by 0.35%. The Japanese index Nikkei 225 increased by 1.15%, Korean KOSPI climbed by 0.53%, Australian S&P/ASX 200 went up less than others by 0.14%.

China's central bank decided to reduce the interest rate to 3.7% from 3.8%. In December 2021, the reduction of the rates occurred for the first time in almost 2 years. This was done in order to reduce the costs of companies and support the economy of the country.

Chinese companies Country Garden Services Holdings Co. gained 15.76%, Meituan climbed by 8.49% and Haidilao International Holding, Ltd. increased by 7,67%. Xiaomi Corp. and Geely Automobile Holdings, Ltd. also gained 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

Investor sentiment was also positively affected by the release of economic data from Japan. The data showed that Japan's exports increased by 17.5% in December 2021. At the same time, analysts had expected an increase in exports by 16%. Economists attribute export growth to increased demand for steel, automobiles and semiconductors, as well as settlement of supplies. Imports increased by 41.1%, but according to expectations, their growth is estimated at 42.8%.

Among Japanese companies, Konami Holdings Corp. increased by 6.02%, Nexon Co. raised by 5.96% and Itochu Corp. gained 5,17%. Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. and Nintendo Co., Ltd. rose by 2.3% and 2.9%, respectively.

At the same time, traders remain concerned about the spread of coronavirus in the world and the tightening of restrictive measures, which many states are forced to take. The closest attention is focused on China's attempts to reduce the number of COVID-19 infections to a minimum on the eve of the Chinese New Year and the Winter Olympics.

Following the growth of the Korean stock exchange, Kia Corp. increased by 0.1% and Hyundai Motor Co. gained 0.3%, as well as LG Corp. climbed by 1.3%, while Samsung Electronics Co. fell by 0.1%.

Australia's unemployment rate fell. According to the latest data released last month, unemployment fell to 4.2% from 4.6%. This was due to the removal of restrictive measures aimed at preventing of the spread of COVID-19. Notably, this figure is the lowest for the last 14 years. According to forecasts, it should have decreased only by 0.1%, to 4.5%.

Amid this positive news, BHP Group securities increased by 3.1% and Rio Tinto - by 3.2%.

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Robinhood will launch cryptocurrency wallets

The company's blog posts on Thursday revealed that Robinhood Markets Inc is deploying cryptocurrency wallets for 1,000 users, allowing them to send and receive cryptocurrencies through their brokerage accounts.

Last year, the Menlo Park-based online brokerage laid out plans to start testing cryptocurrency wallets with a goal to wider use in 2022.

Out of the 1.6 million people on the crypto wallet waiting list, the top 1,000 can now exchange their cryptocurrency from Robinhood for external crypto wallets.

The new feature also connects digital asset owners to the blockchain ecosystem.

According to the company's terms, Beta testers will have a daily limit of $2,999 for total withdrawals and 10 transactions. They will also need to enable two-factor authentication.

Robinhood plans to expand the program to 10,000 customers by March 2022.

Robinhood's customers have long been asking for cryptocurrency wallets, which allow them to participate more broadly in blockchain-based ecosystems to be able to buy virtual assets such as non-fungible tokens (NTF) on the Ethereum network.

The company will be required to report fourth-quarter earnings on January 27.

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CFTC report: US dollar's massive sell-off before the FOMC meeting. Overview of USD, EUR, and GBP

Monday's focus is on PMI reports from the US, the UK, and the Eurozone, which will answer the question of whether inflationary pressures are weakening or increasing, as well as what impacts the sharply increased speed of the spread of COVID-19 has had on the economy.

According to the CFTC report published on Friday, the US dollar underwent massive sales during the reporting week. The cumulative long position decreased by 7 billion, which is one of the largest weekly dollar drawdowns since the summer of 2020, and fell to 13 billion – the lowest since September.

Almost all currencies, except the Swiss franc, increased their positions against the US currency. The pound and the euro are having the largest surge.

Markets show mixed dynamics. Stock indices ended the past week in the red zone, a number of industrial commodities (oil, copper, iron ore) were also slightly in the red zone, and UST yields declined and dragged the global yield indices with them. So far, it can be said that the markets are noticeably losing enthusiasm as the Fed meeting approaches, which means an increase in demand for defensive assets.

EUR/USD

ECB President, Christine Lagarde, said at the virtual conference in Davos that the Central Bank did not expect GDP growth, labor market recovery, and high inflation at the beginning of 2021. However, she does not see a threat due to rising inflation and assumes that it will decline to 2% by the end of this year.

The CFTC report showed a sharp increase in demand for the euro, whose net long position increased by 2.627 billion to 3.48 billion during the reporting week. The estimated price continues to grow steadily.

If we compare the plans of the Fed and the ECB, they are clearly not in favor of the euro. The Fed is likely to start raising rates in March and raise them 4 times by the end of the year, and then start reducing the balance sheet by the middle of the year. On the contrary, the ECB is expected to complete the PEPP program in March. The APP program will also end within a year, but the ECB rate increase is not expected at all until the end of 2023. Accordingly, the rate differential will increase significantly in favor of the US dollar, which will lead to a decrease in the EUR/USD exchange rate in the middle and long term.

But why aren't investors frantically buying up the US dollar then?

Nordea did a bit of research into the impact of the Fed's rate hike cycle on the euro and came to the surprising conclusion that there was no direct correlation. If there was a direct correlation (the Fed raised rates by a total of 175p and the euro fell from 1.20 to 0.90) in 1999/2000, then in the 2004/06 increase cycle, there was no connection at all between the rate and the euro rate. Moreover, after the end of the Fed cycle, the EUR/USD rate turned out to be higher than before the start of the cycle.

Accordingly, it is too naive to expect that the euro will react strictly according to the rule. The increase in the settlement price so far only indicates that there is no growth in demand for the US dollar, despite the tightening of rhetoric. Technically, the euro did not manage to go above the channel border, which means a signal for an attempt to update the low, but the CFTC report and the dynamics of GKO rates indicate the opposite. Focusing on investors' behavior, it can be assumed that a decline in the EUR/USD after the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting will not happen. The support level of 1.1186 formed at the end of November will remain. A movement to 1.1484 is more likely.

GBP/USD

The pound is under short-term pressure after the release of weak retail sales data on Friday, lowering inflationary expectations. On the contrary, the CFTC report turned out to be confidently bullish for the pound, the growth of long positions by 2.465 billion allowed to completely liquidate the net short position. The settlement price is directed strictly upwards.

The possibility of Boris Johnson's voluntary resignation did not arouse any interest among traders, since it is such a small event in the current realities. It can be assumed that if the downward correction ends, the pound will try to find support in the 1.3520/30 zone and continue growth with the target of 1.3830. The breakdown of this resistance will technically mean an upturn.

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European stock markets posted their worst drop since November 2021

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 3.81% and amounted to 456.36 points.

The French CAC 40 index lost almost 4%, the German DAX - 3.8%, the British FTSE 100 - 2.6%. Spain's IBEX 35 and Italy's FTSE MIB were down 3.2% and 4%, respectively.

Dutch consumer goods and medical equipment maker Royal Philips NV fell 4.6%. The company in the 4th quarter of 2021 reduced net profit by 75%, revenue - by 6%, which turned out to be worse than expected.

French Kering, which owns several luxury brands, fell 3%. Kering will sell Sowind Group SA, which owns Swedish watchmakers Girard-Perregaux and Ulysse Nardin, to the company's top management.

Meanwhile, Unilever Plc rose 7.3% after The Wall Street Journal reported that hedge fund Trian Fund Management LP, led by billionaire Nelson Peltz, bought a stake in the company.

Bicycle maker Accell soared 25% on the news that the company was bought by a consortium of investors led by KKR fund for 1.6 billion euros.

Vodafone Group's market value rose 4.5% on rumors of a possible merger with carrier Three in the UK and Iliad in Italy.

The main attention of the market is drawn to the meeting of the Committee on operations on the open markets of the US Federal Reserve, which will begin on Tuesday and end on Wednesday. As expected, following the meeting, the Fed may signal its readiness to raise the key interest rate as early as March.

Also a negative factor is the growing tension in Eastern Europe. The US State Department on Sunday recommended that American citizens in Ukraine leave the country immediately, citing an excessive increase in Russia's military presence on the border.

The UK on Sunday also accused Russia of trying to bring a leadership loyal to the Kremlin to power in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, NATO is putting its military on alert and sending more ships and fighter jets to Eastern Europe as Russian forces build up near Ukraine.

Renne Friedman, senior economist at Exante, said the poor start to the week follows a fairly bearish week for risk assets. Investors were unimpressed by US banks' fourth-quarter quarterly reports, and besides, fears about the Fed's tightening policy and high inflation in various regions of the world put significant pressure on risk appetite.

In addition, investors are evaluating the latest batch of statistics on the change in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the euro area in January.

The consolidated PMI of 19 eurozone countries fell to 52.4 points this month from 53.3 points in December, according to preliminary data from Markit Economics. Analysts at Trading Economics on average expected the indicator to drop to 52.6 points.

The PMI in the services sector in the euro area fell to 51.2 from 53.1, while in the manufacturing sector the indicator rose to 59 from 58 last month.

The consolidated PMI of Germany in January rose to 54.3 points from 49.9 points last month. The indicator is again above the 50-point mark, which separates the growth of business activity from the recession.

In the service sector in Germany, PMI rose to 52.2 from 48.7 points, in the manufacturing industry - up to 60.5 points from 57.4.

The January value of the consolidated PMI of France amounted to 52.7 points compared to 55.8 points in December. The index of business activity in the service sector fell to 53.1 from 57 points, in the manufacturing industry - to 55.5 from 55.6 points.

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Most Asian stock markets are trading in the red

The Federal Reserve may signal to markets that it is ready to start raising interest rates in March following its January meeting, which ends on Wednesday, analysts say. This will be the first rate hike since 2018.

The easing of monetary policy was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But now the Fed may also say that it is considering other options for tightening monetary policy to combat rising inflation, CNBC notes.

A growing number of Fed officials and Wall Street economists see the possibility of more than three hikes in the base interest rate by the US Central Bank this year against the backdrop of a significant rise in consumer prices. They explain these forecasts as signals that inflation in the US, which is at a maximum for almost 40 years, affects all segments of the economy, while the labor market is growing rapidly.

The Japanese Nikkei fell by 0.4% by 8:36 GMT+2.

Among the components of the index, the shares of Idemitsu Kosan Co. are the leaders of decline. Ltd. (-8.8%), Shionogi & Co. Ltd. (-5.9%) and Ricoh Co. Ltd. (-4.9%).

Shares of the metallurgical company Japan Steel Works Ltd. lose 2.5%, shares of IT company Rakuten Group Inc. grow by 0.7%, investment SoftBank Group Corp. add 1.8%.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng fell by 0.1% by 8:45 GMT+2, while the Shanghai Shanghai Composite rose by 0.3%.

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd (-7.4%), Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. are the decline leaders in Hang Seng. (-6.5%) and Li Ning Co. Ltd.(-3.08%).

Shares of automaker Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are cheaper by 2.3%, technology company JD.com Inc. - grow by 1.4%.

South Korean Kospi lost 0.15% by 8:45 GMT+2.

Shares of automaker Kia Corp. (KS:000270) up 1.8%, shares of Hyundai Motor Co. decrease by 2.1%.

The cost of chip and electronics manufacturer Samsung Electronics Co. is down 0.8%, its rival LG Corp. grows by 0.1%.

Australian stock exchanges are closed due to the holiday (Australia Day).

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Powell pushed the dollar up

The US dollar rose after Jerome Powell's rather harsh statements during a meeting of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Operations Committee on Wednesday, which cannot be said about the stock market, whose indicators have noticeably declined.

So, the American regulator, as expected by analysts, left the interest rate in the country unchanged. The first and, perhaps, the main thesis of the meeting sounds like this: the right time to raise interest rates is about to come. The completion of the asset purchase program will take place a couple of weeks earlier than expected, namely in early March. The reduction of the balance sheet will occur from the beginning of the rate hike cycle. The situation in the economy and labor market of the United States is already noticeably better. The unemployment rate has finally significantly decreased, so there is no point in delaying the tightening of the PEPP.

It is worth noting that Powell, in an uncharacteristic manner, spoke rather harshly about the economy during the meeting, and did not calm the already noticeably fallen market. He finally admitted that inflation in the US is too high and its growth can no longer be called a temporary phenomenon. Powell stressed that the US economy no longer needs such large support from the Federal Reserve.

Bank of Singapore strategist Moh Siong Sim said that the market expects rates to rise at least four times this year, that is, one increase per quarter. At the same time, J. Powell noted in his speech that he does not exclude more than four stages.

After the meeting of the American regulator and the subsequent press conference, Powell's dollar exchange rate fluctuated for a while, but eventually returned to the levels that preceded the announcement of the results. On Thursday, greenback quotes are trading at the highest level in many weeks. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies by the time of preparation of the material increased by 0.92% to 96.81.

Paired with the single European currency, the dollar rose to a two-month high of 1.1195. Against the Japanese yen, it was able to maintain growth at the level of 114.81. Paired with the kiwi, the dollar rose to its highest level in more than a year, and against the Australian dollar rose to a seven-week peak.

The pound sterling fell against the dollar by 0.29%. At the time of preparation of the material, it is trading at $ 1.3422, while being in a delicate balance. The movement of the pound is limited by the situation with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is under pressure because he attended parties during the general quarantine in the country. Traders' close attention is also focused on the meeting of the Bank of England, which will be held next week.

Speech by Powell had a strong impact on risky assets. So, Thursday morning was marked by the fact that in Asia, the leading indexes are falling within 3.1%, futures for the main American indexes fell by more than 1%.

The Fed's harsh rhetoric on Wednesday also had an impact on US stock indices, which fell sharply last night. On Thursday morning, futures on them lost more than 1%.

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Crypto analysts doubt Bitcoin's bright future

Last week, the leading digital asset declined to $32,900 for the first time since the summer of 2021. However, by the end of last week, BTC increased by 7.3% reaching $37,700.

The recent growth of the US stock market triggered the rebound of Bitcoin. This growth has interrupted the negative dynamics for the first time after three weeks of steady decline. In addition, this once again emphasized the increased correlation of exchange and virtual assets lately.

The leading altcoins followed the growth of the flagship digital asset. Thus, during the week Ethereum jumped by 7%, and Binance Coin increased by 4.6%. At the same time, the total capitalization of the crypto market rose by 1.7% to $1.79 trillion.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering at $37,000 and its capitalization stands at $706 billion, according to CoinGecko, the world's largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregator.

Despite a temporary stabilization, the situation in the crypto market remains extremely unstable, with BTC risking a third consecutive month of decline. Thus, in January, the first cryptocurrency has already lost about 20%, and the collapse from the November highs exceeded 45%.

The unpredictable trading of the crypto market makes experts give mixed forecasts. The former head of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes said that in the near future, Bitcoin may collapse to $20,000 once the support of $28,000-$30,000 is broken through.

This level is important for market participants, as it prevented the collapse of BTC in the summer of last year when the value of the coin fell to $28,000. The reason for Bitcoin's large-scale collapse was the largest hash rate drop in the history of crypto-assets amid the mass relocation of miners from China.

By the way, crypto-enthusiasts began to feel more pessimistic about the endless growth of bitcoin. Thus, analysts at JPMorgan, one of the world's largest banks, reduced the fair valuation of BTC to $38,000 from $150,000.

According to JPMorgan, the main reason for such a negative outlook on the future of the main cryptocurrency is high volatility, which limits the use of digital assets by institutional investors.

Experts stressed that the recent sharp pullback by 50% in bitcoin from its November all-time high was a signal to cancel the addition of BTC to the investment portfolios of many institutions, funds, and organizations.

Earlier experts of the bank were betting on the convergence of Bitcoin volatility with gold volatility and the equation of their shares in portfolios of investors. According to the bank's scenario for 2022, the volatility ratio of the main cryptocurrency to gold may reduce by two times.

However, in their latest report, analysts at JPMorgan lowered the price of Bitcoin to 1/4 of $150,000, that is, to $38,000. In addition, the bank's experts did not rule out a further drop in the value of the main cryptocurrency in the absence of market buy signals.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 1, 2022

February 1 economic calendar:

Europe will release its labor market data today, where the unemployment rate may decline from 7.2% to 7.1%. This is a positive factor that can support the euro locally.

The final data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Europe, the UK, and the US for January is unlikely to put pressure on the market.

JOLTS data on open vacancies in the US will be published during the American trading session. The total number of which may rise from 10,562 thousand to 11,075 thousand. If the data is confirmed, the US dollar may receive support.

Time targeting

The index of business activity in the European manufacturing sector - 9:00 Universal time

The index of business activity in the UK manufacturing sector - 9:30 Universal time

EU unemployment rate - 10:00 Universal time

The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector - 14:45 Universal time

The number of open vacancies in the US labor market (JOLTS) - 15:00 Universal time

Trading plan for EUR/USD on Feb 1:

According to the correction structure, the price movement is still relevant in the market, but its scale indicates the possibility of early completion. So while working on the euro's growth, it is worth preparing to reduce the volume of long positions, which will lead to the resumption of the downward trend. The area of 1.1270/1.1300 is considered as a variable resistance level.analytics61f8de57430a4.jpg

Trading plan for GBP/USD on Feb 1:

The pullback stage is still relevant in the market. As a result, traders do not rule out the pound's slight strengthening towards 1.3500. At this moment, a gradual reduction in the volume of long positions is possible, which will eventually lead to the end of the pullback stage and the continuation of the downward cycle.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 2, 2022

February 2 economic calendar:

Europe will release its inflation data today, which may slow down from 5.0% to 4.5%. Given the ECB's vague position, the decline in inflation is in no way a bad factor, but in this case, tomorrow's meeting may remain unchanged since the European regulator sees a decline in consumer prices.

ADP's employment report in the US will be published during the US trading session, which may increase by 207 thousand. On the one hand, the figure is not small, but compared to the previous month, where there was an increase of 807 thousand, speculators may be afraid. This will negatively affect the US dollar.

Time targeting:

EU inflation - 10:00 Universal time

US ADP report - 13:15 Universal time

Trading plan for EUR/USD on Feb 2:

The correction is still relevant in the market, despite the resistance area. Therefore, the quote may continue to move within 1.1270 /1.1320, locally leaving the resistance zone.

The signal for the prolongation of the upward cycle will be received if the price holds above the level of 1.1330 in a four-hour period.

The signal about the completion of the correction will be considered by traders if the price holds below the level of 1.1230 in a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on Feb 2:

The corrective course remains in the market, where traders do not exclude a subsequent increase in the value of the pound if the price holds above the level of 1.3530. In this case, it will likely move in the direction of 1.3600.

Traders will consider an alternative scenario of market development in case the price returns below the level of 1.3480. This step may indicate the primary signal to the end of the correction.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 3, 2022

February 3 economic calendar:

Today is the busiest day of the week, as two meetings of the Central Banks are expected at once.

The Bank of England intends to accelerate the pace of tightening monetary policy by raising the refinancing rate from 0.25% to 0.50%. This step will definitely affect the exchange rate of the British currency in terms of its further strengthening. It is worth considering that the pound has already grown by 200 points, after the news appeared on January 28 that the regulator intends to raise the rate once again. Thus, there is an assumption that the market has already considered the decision of the Bank of England in the quotation.

Following the meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) is highly likely to leave everything as it is. Therefore, market participants will pay attention to subsequent comments, where we expect to hear specifics from the regulator in terms of further actions. In simple words, the ECB intends to adhere to an ultra-soft approach or follow the path of its colleagues and start tightening monetary policy. The first option of development will lead to a weakening of the euro, but the announcement of an early tightening of monetary policy will provide an opportunity to strengthen the euro noticeably.

Time targeting

Bank of England results - 12:00 Universal time

ECB results - 12:45 Universal time

ECB press conference - 13:30 Universal time

Trading plan for EUR/USD on Feb 3:

In this situation, traders are considering a temporary price fluctuation within the resistance area of 1.1270/1.1320, but everything can change if new speculative surges amid informational noise.

Trading recommendations remain the same, where acceleration is considered after the breakdown of one of the control values.

The signal for the prolongation of the upward cycle will be received if the price holds above the level of 1.1330 in an H4 period.

The signal about the end of the correction will be considered by traders if the price holds below the level of 1.1260 in an H4 period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on Feb 3:

In this case, there is overheating of long positions, where the level of 1.3600 can act as resistance. This will lead to a gradual recovery of downward interest. It is worth considering that traders might ignore the overbought status due to upcoming events. In this case, holding the price above the level of 1.3600 will lead to a subsequent growth.

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Pound aims to reach new highs

The pound gathered strength for the next breakthrough, which occurred after the results of the Bank of England's meeting on the rate was announced. Its nearest goals are to consolidate in the reached positions and conquer the next highs.

On Thursday, the Bank of England discussed the current monetary policy. The key issue was to raise the interest rate. The markets expect five rate hikes from the regulator this year, the cumulative increase of which will be 125 bps. Following the announcement of the results of the meeting, the pound noticeably declined against the US dollar. On Thursday evening, it was trading at the level of 1.3577 and then made a short-term breakthrough to 1.3628. However, it lacked the strength to hold on to the gained positions. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was near the round level of 1.3600, trying not to further fall.

Experts consider the Bank of England one of the most "hawkish" among the world's regulators. The actions of the monetary authority confirm this definition. It can be recalled that the British regulator is expected to increase the interest rate from 0.25% per annum to 0.5% while maintaining the volume of asset repurchases for 895 billion pounds. Along with this, the Bank of England revised the forecast of the country's economic growth downward to 3.75% from the previous 5% calculated in November 2021. The Central Bank of England considers a reduction in aggregate demand as the reason for the slow growth rates of the national economy. At the same time, the regulator raised the forecast for UK inflation for this year to 5.75% from the previous 3.5%.

The current situation had a vague effect on the pound's dynamics. On the one hand, the rate increase gave impulse to it, helping it to increase, but on the other hand, it keeps it in a state of uncertainty. This condition prevents the pound from reversing and it has to be content with short-term growth.

In relation to the Euro currency, the British currency also showed growth. Analysts noted that it surged to a 2-year high against the euro amid the interest rate hike by the Bank of England. The regulator expectedly raised the key rate to 0.5%, and this is not the limit. According to Jane Foley, Head of Foreign Exchange at Rabobank, the Bank of England will raise rates again in May 2022.

"Against the backdrop of falling household incomes due to rising energy and food prices, market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England are exaggerated. However, another rate hike is expected in May," J. Foley believes.

The British regulator has increased the interest rate to curb rampant price pressure. According to the estimates of the Central Bank of England, the inflation rate in the country will soon exceed 7%. The off-the-scale indicators not only concern inflation. According to BoE's representatives, consumer price growth in April 2022 will reach its peak values over the past 30 years and will amount to 7.25%. Based on the preliminary forecasts, the UK inflation will remain above 5% in a year. However, the ministry believes that inflation will be below 2% in three years and will amount to 1.6%. At the same time, the British regulator believes that investors have put too many rate increases in prices this year.

Because of this, the pound remains at risk but does not give up. It is slightly imbalanced against the US dollar due to a decline in global risk appetite and a drop in the stock market, but it strives to overcome price barriers, despite inflationary pressure and several negative economic factors.

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European stock markets closed lower on Friday

The ECB did not change the main parameters of monetary policy. The regulator left the base interest rate on loans at zero, the rate on deposits - at minus 0.5%. The rate on margin loans was kept at 0.25%.

Meanwhile, in a post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that consumer price growth, which reached historic highs in January and December, could remain elevated for a longer period than previously expected. At the same time, she expressed the hope that inflation will begin to gradually slow down during 2022.

When asked if Lagarde was ready to repeat what she said two months ago about the low probability of a rate hike in 2022, the head of the ECB replied that she does not make promises without certain conditions, and that much will depend on the March revision of the central bank's macroeconomic forecasts.

In turn, the Bank of England raised its key rate for the second time in a row, from 0.25% to 0.5%, against the backdrop of record inflation in the UK in 30 years.

The volume of orders of industrial enterprises in Germany in December increased by 2.8% compared to the previous month, the country's Ministry of Economics reported. Analysts on average had expected a rise of 0.5%.

Retail sales in the euro area in December 2021 decreased by 3% compared to the previous month, data from the European Union Statistical Office (Eurostat) showed. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected a decline of 0.9% on average. In annual terms, retail sales increased by 2% instead of the expected growth of 5%.

Retail sales fell the most in Ireland (-3.2%), Spain and Finland (-3%). The most significant growth in retail sales was recorded in Slovenia (+44.1%), Lithuania (+16.2%) and Estonia (+12.6%).

Traders continue to follow the reporting season and analyze the results of European and American companies.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the Stoxx Europe 600 region by the close of trading fell by 1.38% and amounted to 462.15 points. At the end of the week, the indicator lost 0.73%.

The British FTSE 100 fell on Friday by 0.17%, the French CAC 40 index - by 0.77%, the German DAX - by 1.75%. The Spanish IBEX 35 and the Italian FTSE MIB lost 1.15% and 1.79% respectively.

The French pharmaceutical company Sanofi SA increased its net profit in the fourth quarter of 2021, but the rise in revenue was worse than market forecasts. The company's shares fell 1.1%.

Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo SpA turned profitable in the fourth quarter of 2021 and plans to return €22 billion to shareholders by 2025 as part of a new business plan. Bank papers, meanwhile, fell 2.2%.

Enel SpA shares lost 2.1%. The Italian energy company boosted revenue in 2021 on the back of better business segment performance, but profit growth slowed.

Capitalization of the Swedish biopharmaceutical AddLife AB collapsed by 26.3%. The company said its CEO Christina Wilgard plans to retire this year.

The value of Swedish door lock maker Assa Abloy AB jumped 7% after the release of the report. The company posted a net profit of SEK 3.04 billion ($334.2 million) in the fourth quarter, which was higher than the market forecast. Assa Abloy also increased its dividend.

Shares in British tech Oxford Nanopore Technologies PLC rose 1% after analysts at Berenberg released a positive report on the company's outlook following the Festival of Genomics 2022 event.

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Cryptocurrency theft funded North Korea's nuclear and missile program

United Nations report says that cryptocurrency theft remained an important source of income for North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs last year.

Cryptocurrency theft was carried out through cyberattacks on cryptocurrency exchanges around the world. North Korean hackers stole millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency.

In general, the report notes that more than $50 million worth of digital assets has been stolen between 2020 and mid-2021.

Moreover, according to the UN report, cyber-attacks represent the main source of income for Pyongyang's nuclear and missile program. The findings were submitted to the UN Security Council committee on sanctions against North Korea.

The UN report describes an analysis of how North Korea's cyberattacks could have raised $400 million worth of cryptocurrency last year. These attacks primarily targeted investment firms and centralized exchanges. Last year was the most fruitful for cybercriminals. According to calculations and analysis of UN data, criminals launched at least seven attacks on cryptocurrency platforms.

The UN Security Council banned North Korea from launching ballistic missiles and conducting nuclear tests.

In addition, it has tightened sanctions against North Korea since 2006 in order to limit funding for Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

The report noted that North Korea's missile tests have increased over the past year. According to a US statement last week, North Korea carried out nine ballistic missile launches in January despite sanctions.

And one of the last launches of a medium-range ballistic missile took place a week ago. The most popular test site was Alsom Island, located 11 miles off the northeast coast of North Korea. Since 2019, Pyongyang has launched more than 25 missile strikes on it.

According to 2019 UN data, North Korea managed to secure about $2 billion for its nuclear and missile program despite existing sanctions pointing to state-sponsored hacking groups.

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European stock market up on strong earnings

Strong quarterly reports on corporate earnings of European companies supported the stock market on Wednesday, but concerns about the aggressive steps of major central banks are limiting growth. Thus, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose by 1.0%. The UK FTSE 100 advanced by 0.45% to 7,600.4, the French CAC 40 was up by 1.06% to 7,103.08, and the German DAX rose by 0.88% to 15,376.34.

Investors expect the European companies to show strong financial performance. This week, such companies as Metro AG, Societe Generale, and Total Energies will issue their corporate reports.

Shares of some European companies have already posted gains. For example, the securities of the French asset manager Amundi added 2.5%. This rise was facilitated by reports about a significant increase in the company's quarterly profits.

Equinor, the largest oil company in Northern Europe, published strong results for the previous year. Its shares were up by 3.7%.

Shares of Danish jewellery maker Pandora also rose by 5.1% today. The expected growth of sales in 2022 was certainly a driving factor. In addition, Pandora's results came in line with the preliminary forecast released in January.

Shares of the Dutch payment system Adyen were the top gainers in Europe: their price surged unexpectedly by as much as 11.0%.

The worst performers of the day were the stocks of the Swedish online casino developer Evolution Gaming, which lost 6.8%, and the shares of the Norwegian financial corporation Storebrand, which fell by 5.8%. Shares of the Dutch insurance company Aegon NV also slipped into negative territory with a drop of 4.86%.

In general, on February 9, global stock markets were quite optimistic. In addition to strong corporate reports, the macroeconomic data from Germany was also of key importance. Thus, the volume of the country's exports in December in monthly terms rose by 0.9% and imports - by 4.7%.

Investors hope that the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Europe will soon be resolved, especially after French President Emmanuel Macron has visited Moscow and Kyiv. European and American officials are convinced that the only way to handle the conflict on the border with Ukraine is to implement the Minsk agreements.

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European stock indices continue to grow steadily due to multiple positive factors

During the trading session on Thursday, European stock exchange indicators are permanently increasing against the background of strong financial statements of major corporations.

So, at the time of writing, the British FTSE 100 indicator increased by 0.03% to 7646.1 points, the French CAC 40 also gained 0.03%, reaching a level of 7133.12 points, and the German DAX jumped 0.2% to 15514.1 points.

The main impetus for the growth of European stock markets was the optimism of investors regarding the published corporate reports of Siemens, ArcelorMittal, and Societe General. The value of the securities of these giants rose on Thursday by 6.07%, 0.72%, and 4.8%, respectively.

The focus of attention of market participants this week is data on the inflation rate in the United States. According to preliminary forecasts of analysts, in January, this indicator will rise to the highest since February 1982 - by 7.3%. Recall that in December 2021, the inflation rate in the United States reached 7%.

Following the results of the trading session on Wednesday, European stock indices reported a spectacular rise against the background of a decline in the yields of government bonds of the eurozone states.

Thus, the key Stoxx Europe 600 indicator closed at 473.33 points, gaining 1.72% over the day. France's main stock index, the CAC 40, added 1.46%, stopping at 7130.88 points, the German DAX gained 1.57% and rose to 15482.01 points, and the British increased by 1.01% to 7643.42 points.

The yield of 10-year German government bonds lost about 5 basis points yesterday, dropping to 0.22%. The declining yield of bonds stimulates the attractiveness of securities for investors as a reliable investment tool.

The most popular stocks among traders on the eve were the securities of technical corporations. As a result, the quotes of the Dutch manufacturer of microelectronic products ASML Holding jumped by 4%, ASM International - by 4.7%, AMS-Osram - by 5.8%.

Another important growth factor for European stock markets was the corporate reporting of the region's leading enterprises. Thus, the shares of the Danish jewelry manufacturer Pandora increased in price by 8% against the background of the company's management statement about the expected sales growth in 2022.

The quotes of the Norwegian oil and gas corporation Equinor ASA jumped 1.4% after the company reported a return to profit in the fourth quarter. In addition, Equinor ASA representatives announced an increase in dividend payments and an increase in the securities repurchase program.

Shares of the Danish transport and logistics company A.P. Moller-Maersk AS on Wednesday closed with an increase of 7.2% on the background of a report on record revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter of last year.

The quotes of the British pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline sank by 1.4%, despite the growth in net profit and revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Securities of the leading Dutch bank ABN Amro Bank NV fell by 9.1%. In the fourth quarter of last year, the net profit of ABN Amro Bank NV increased 10 times, however, the size of the new program for repurchasing its securities did not meet market forecasts.

Shares of the German manufacturer Siemens Energy AG gained 1%. The company's stock quotes showed growth, despite reporting a net loss in the last quarter against profit for the same period in 2020.

The securities of the Dutch manufacturer of paints and varnishes Akzo Nobel NV soared by 5% on the back of better than experts predicted quarterly reports of the company.

Experts say that the current optimism in the stock markets of Europe and the world is explained by the absence of meetings of the largest central banks and positive financial reports of manufacturing giants.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on February 11, 2022

The dollar's effort to settle above the MACD indicator line on the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair was not in vain - yesterday the price jumped by 86 points, closing the day with a rise of 52 points. Now the way for the dollar to the line of the price channel of the monthly chart in the area of 117.17 is open.

On the four-hour chart, visually stable growth continues in the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is in no hurry to grow, which allows the price to reach the lower border of the price channel either by a small correction, or by a sideways movement - by consolidation. Next, we are waiting for a new wave of growth.

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 11, 2022

On Thursday, with the release of data on inflation in the US, the euro traded in a range of 120 points, marking the target level of 1.1496 with an upper shadow. To be precise, yesterday's peak was 1.1495, but one point can be neglected as a fluctuation effect. Inflation (CPI) in the US increased from 7.0% y/y to 7.5% y/y in January, and this is the highest rate since 1982. Market participants are now waiting for the March rate increase immediately by 0.50%. We are now waiting for the euro to go into a correction in the area of the MACD indicator line on the daily chart, to the target level of 1.1300 (August 2018 low). At this level, the question will be decided - will the price turn from it into further growth, towards the target 1.1700/22, or will it consolidate below it and continue to decline to 1.1060.

On the four-hour chart, the price went under the balance indicator line, visually getting ready to attack the MACD line (1.1355), overcoming which will make it possible to get ready to take 1.1300. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down from the zero line (arrow), which is an additional confirmation of the price's intention to develop a downward movement.

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Rising tensions in Eastern Europe have brought down US stock indices

At the close of trading on Friday, US stock exchange indicators showed a steady decline against the background of negative dynamics on the part of technology companies, as well as the consumer goods and services sector. An equally important downward factor for the market was a sharp increase in tension in eastern Europe.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.43%, closing at 3,4738.06 points. The main favorites among the DJIA components were the securities of Chevron Corp (+2.04%), Verizon Communications Inc (+0.53%), and Dow Inc (+0.23%). Stocks topped the fall list of Salesforce.com Inc (-4.49%), Nike Inc (-3.20%), and Boeing Co (-2.95%).

The high-tech NASDAQ Composite fell by 2.78% to 1,3791.15 points. The growth leaders among the components of the Nasdaq stock index were the securities of Y-mAbs Therapeutics (+25.95%), Kaival Brands Innovations Group Inc (+23.08%), and InterCure Ltd (+21.84%). The shares of ProQR Therapeutics NV (-75.35%), Enveric Biosciences Inc (-49.03%), and Surgalign Holdings Inc (-45.57%) reported minimal results here.

The Standard & Poor's 500 broad market indicator sank by 1.90% to 4,418.64 points. The securities of Newell Brands Inc (+11.07%), Baker Hughes Co (+6.20%), and Occidental Petroleum Corporation (+5.65%) demonstrated the highest results in the S&P 500 stock index. The main outsiders were the shares of Under Armour Inc A (-12.49%), Under Armour Inc C (-11.37%), and Advanced Micro Devices Inc (-10.01%).

On the NYSE stock exchange, the number of securities that lost in price (2,266) exceeded the number of those that increased in value (987), and the indicators of 136 shares remained at the level of the previous close.

The Cboe Volatility Index, which is formed based on options trading indicators on the S&P 500, rose by 14.43% to 27.36 points.

Geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe remained in the focus of market participants' attention on Friday. Thus, the United States authorities called on Americans to leave the territory of Ukraine within 24-48 hours, explaining their concern about "the possibility of Russian troops invading the territory of a neighboring state at any moment."

Another important downward factor for the stock markets of America was the weak statistics on the US economy and the growing concerns of investors about the acceleration of inflation. Thus, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, this month the consumer confidence index in the United States fell to 61.7 points from 67.2 in January. The value of the indicator was the lowest since the fall of 2011. At the same time, market experts predicted an increase in the index to 67.5 points.

Meanwhile, the announcement of a higher-than-expected increase in inflation in America brought additional tension to the markets due to the expectation of an imminent tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

Amid expectations of decisive steps from the US Federal Reserve, stock market participants began to rotate investments between its sectors. So, traders invest in shares of cyclical companies, getting rid of the securities of the giants of the technology sector.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on February 15, 2022

Over the past day, the situation on the Australian dollar has not changed. The price tried to reach the target level of 0.7065, but returned to its original positions. Now we are waiting for a second such attempt, the target of 0.7065 remains relevant. The 0.6950 level is a promising target, which coincides (at the moment) with the lower border of the descending channel of the Marlin Oscillator.

On the four-hour chart, just like a day ago, the price is gathering strength to overcome the support of the MACD line at the price of 0.7120. Consolidation below it will reopen the target level of 0.7065. The Marlin Oscillator is in a downward position.

Forecast for EUR/USD on February 15, 2022

Yesterday's decline in the euro amounted to 44 points. The lower daily shadow reached the MACD line, but there was no consolidation either under it or under the price level of 1.1300. Well, since the delay occurred in the range of the monthly consolidation of December 2021, then a sideways movement is likely for another one or two days. Overcoming yesterday's low (1.1280), which will correspond to the breakthrough of the MACD line, will open the target at 1.1060. A reversal of the euro into growth is possible, but the signal level is very high - this is the high of February 10 at 1.1495. Before crossing this level, strong chaotic movements in the range of 1.1300-1.1496 are very likely. But such movements in themselves will already be a sign of further growth of the euro, to the target range of 1.1700/22. Downward movement is expected to be smooth.

On a four-hour scale, the price is consolidating at 1.1300. The signal line of the Marlin Oscillator also lies sideways. Price and oscillator in downward trend zones. A change in trends may occur when the price goes above the MACD line, above 1.1364. This will be a sign of its further movement towards 1.1496. But, based on the situation on the daily chart, such a local growth may turn out to be false. We are waiting for the development of the situation.

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Bitcoin rises sharply and crypto investors buy lesser-known altcoins

On Tuesday, Bitcoin soared by 5% overnight and jumped above $44,000. According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of digital asset data, the capitalization of the flagship virtual asset rose to $833 billion in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin's main competitor, Ethereum, followed the trend of the crypto market's leader and rose by 6.73% to $3,112 in 24 hours.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $44,168.

At the end of last week, BTC rose to January's high of $45,800. Since then, the main cryptocurrency has been recovering from January's collapse to a low of $32,900 last seen in summer of 2021.

Experts say the main reason for the strong growth of the cryptocurrency market and other risky assets is the weakening of geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

On Tuesday, the market surged amid the Russian Defense Ministry's announcement that the Russian Armed Forces had returned from the exercises to their permanent home bases. At the end of last week, the White House said that Russian troops were concentrated on the border with Ukraine and claimed that Russia was preparing an invasion.

Since the beginning of 2021, the crypto market has been showing high correlation with other risky assets, in particular - with securities. Thus, due to the decline of global stock markets on Monday, Bitcoin also plummeted significantly, despite the high oscillation of quotations throughout the trading sessions. According to analysts of the crypto market, this situation occurs due to the growing institutionalization of the sector.

At the same time, many crypto-experts still perceive digital assets as a safe haven that can preserve its value in times of high volatility.

By the way, last week institutional investors, while continuing to invest in BTC and Ethereum, began to actively invest in little-known altcoins. Thus, Terra, Tezos and Cosmos tokens were among the favorites of the cryptocurrency market. As a result, traders invested $2.2 million, $0.9 million and $0.6 million in the above-mentioned assets, respectively. The cryptocurrency market added $75 million thanks to large institutional investors.

The highest share of $25 million was invested in BTC, while the leading altcoin - Ethereum - unexpectedly received $21 million from institutional investors, thus interrupting a two-month period of capital outflow.

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US stock indices trade mixed

US stock indices closed mixed on Wednesday. The Dow Jones and the NASDAQ lost 0.16% and 0.11% respectively. The S&P 500 added 0.1%.

The indices showed 2 sessions of decline. However, the FOMC Minutes for January released yesterday installed optimism in markets. Traders are now trying to guess whether this is going to be a quarter or a half-percentage-point interest rate hike next month.

Easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine are adding optimism. Russian troops are returning to their permanent deployment sites after the exercises. Russia and Belarus began their joint military drills "2022 Union Resolve" to examine the readiness of its forces "suppressing and repelling external aggression," and countering terrorism. The military exercise does not pose any threat and its function is solely defensive, the parties said.

Continuing inflation is spooking investors. In the UK, the figure hit the 30-year high. In the US, retail sales jumped to 3.8% in January, much better than market forecasts of a 2% rise. On a yearly basis, US retail sales increased 13% in January, compared to a 16.7% rise in December.

Monetary policy, high energy prices, and global supply chain disruptions are among the forces driving inflation up. The Fed will have to resort to aggressive measures if inflation growth is not tamed.

Industrial production in the US increased 4.10% year-on-year in January. The figure had been expected to grow by 0.4%-05%. On a yearly basis, industrial production climbed 4.1%, following a 3.8% rise in December.

Uncertainty in the market is caused by various factors, including galloping inflation, monetary measures by regulators, the imbalance between supply and demand, as well as an uneven pace of the global economic recovery. The Russia-Ukraine conflict only adds fuel to the fire. All these factors, in turn, affect oil prices that have already soared to $93.66 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the earnings season in the US goes on. Kraft Heinz Co. incurred losses in Q4 2021. However, the adjusted figures showed higher-than-expected earnings. The company's stock added 5.6% as a result.

Roblox Corp. stock tumbled 26.5%, following disappointing Q4 earnings.

ViacomCBS plunged 17.8% after the publication of quarterly results below expectations.

Shopify Inc. lost 16%, following disappointing Q4 results, and despite higher-than-expected adjusted earnings.

The STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.2%. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index advanced 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.5% and China's Shanghai Composite added 0.6%.

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US stock market closed lower, Dow Jones down 1.78%

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 1.78%, the S&P 500 fell 2.12%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 2.88%.

Walmart Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 5.35 points or 4.01% to close at 138.88. Quotes of Cisco Systems Inc rose by 1.48 points (2.72%), closing the session at 55.72. Coca-Cola Co rose 1.22 points or 2.00% to close at 62.12.

The biggest losers were Salesforce.com Inc, which shed 11.71 points or 5.53% to end the session at 200.03. Caterpillar Inc was up 4.37% or 8.90 points to close at 194.74, while 3M Company was down 3.57% or 5.50 points to close at 148.64. .

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Newmont Goldcorp Corp, which rose 5.40% to hit 67.75, Sealed Air Corporation, which gained 5.00% to close at 67.35, and also shares of Walmart Inc, which rose 4.01% to end the session at 138.88.

The drop leaders were Albemarle Corp, which shed 19.91% to close at 197.02. Shares of LKQ Corporation lost 14.32% and ended the session at 47.64. Quotes of Tyler Technologies Inc decreased in price by 8.75% to 428.62.

Among the components of the NASDAQ Composite, gainers today were Inspirato Inc, which rose 648.38% to hit 92.65, Cepton Inc, which gained 343.51% to close at 42,000, and Anghami De Inc, which rose 161.36% to end the session at 28,880.

The biggest losers were Amplitude Inc, which shed 58.90% to close at 17.10. Shares of Guardion Health Sciences Inc lost 34.12% to end the session at 0.3700. Quotes of Yumanity Therapeutics Inc decreased in price by 28.81% to 1.26.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2388) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (861), while quotes of 96 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 3,037 companies fell in price, 788 rose, and 179 remained at the level of the previous close.

Shares in Salesforce.com Inc fell to a 52-week low, shedding 5.53% or 11.71 points to close at 200.03. Shares of Coca-Cola Co surged to an all-time high, up 2.00% or 1.22 points to close at 62.12. Shares of 3M Company fell to a 52-week low, down 3.57% or 5.50 points to close at 148.64. Shares of Inspirato Inc surged to a record high of 648.38% or 80.27 points to close at 92.65. Amplitude Inc shares fell to all-time lows, down 58.90% or 24.51 points to close at 17.10. Cepton Inc shares rose to an all-time high, up 343.51%, 32.530 points, to close at 42,000. Shares in Guardion Health Sciences Inc tumbled to a 52-week low, falling 34.12% at 0.1916 to close at 0.3700. Shares of Anghami De Inc surged to all-time highs, up 161.36%, 17.830 points, to close at 28.880. Shares in Yumanity Therapeutics Inc tumbled to their lowest point, falling 28.81% or 0.51 points to close at 1.26.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, rose 15.73% to 28.11.

Gold futures for April delivery added 1.57%, or 29.30, to $1,900.80 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery fell 2.09%, or 1.96, to $91.70 a barrel. Brent oil futures for April delivery fell 0.06%, or 0.06, to $92.91 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR/USD rose 0.03% to hit 1.1363, while USD/JPY shed 0.01% to hit 114.92.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.14% to 95.828.

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American stock indicators fell on Friday and at the end of the week

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 232.85 points (0.68%) to 34,079.18 points. Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 31.39 points (0.72%) - up to 4348.87 points. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 168.65 points (1.23%) to 13,548.07 points.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.9% over the week, S&P 500 - 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite - 1.8%.

Today the US markets are closed due to the holiday (Presidents' Day).

Shares of Shake Shack Inc. fell by 4.1% in trading on Friday. The American fast food chain halved its net loss in the fourth quarter of last fiscal year and increased revenue by more than a quarter, but did not issue a full-year forecast due to market uncertainty.

The cost of Roku Inc. shares. fell by 22%. The streaming equipment company's net income fell 65% in the fourth quarter, while its revenue forecast for the current quarter fell short of analysts' expectations.

Share price of Intel Corp. dropped by 5.3%. After the market closed on Thursday, the company released guidance for 2022 that came in better than market expectations. So, Intel predicts that its profit this year will be $3.5 per share on revenue of $76 billion, while the forecasts of experts polled by FactSet suggest earnings of $3.42 per share on revenue of $74.99.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger noted that revenue growth will be moderate this year and will begin to accelerate from next year. By 2025-2026 they will increase to 10-12% per year and will remain double-digit in the future.

Deere & Co., which released its first financial quarter results on Friday, shed 3% despite the company's strong results. The US farm equipment maker's net income and revenue beat market forecasts last quarter.

Share price of JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased by 0.5%. The bank's chief financial officer, Jeremy Barnum, expressed confidence that JPMorgan could achieve a medium-term return on tangible capital (ROTCE) of 17%.

Barnum also noted that the bank's financial markets division's revenue is likely to fall by 10% in the first quarter, but this rate of decline will be lower than expected. In addition, he confirmed that JPMorgan plans to increase capex by $3.5 billion in 2022, including investments in technology projects.

From the perspective of investors, one of the most important consequences of the escalation of the crisis for the global economy could be a reduction in the supply of oil on the market. Russia is one of the world's largest producers of this type of raw material, and potential sanctions or any other restrictions could lead to an even more significant rise in prices, experts say.

Statistical data on the US housing market, published on Friday, were better than expected. US existing home sales increased 6.7% in January to 6.5 million homes on an annualized basis, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said. In December, resales decreased by 3.8% and amounted to 6.09 million, and not 6.18 million as previously reported. Experts on average predicted a decline of 1% compared to the previously announced figure.

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On Tuesday, the stock market in Europe is steadily falling

From the very beginning of trading, European stock indices have been showing a decline of 3% amid the increasing tension of the situation in Eastern Europe.

Thus, the key British FTSE 100 index fell by 1.27% to 7,389.6 points, the French CAC 40 lost 1.94%, dropping to 6,656.98 points, and the German DAX sank by 2.29% to 1,4393.58 points.

The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic. According to the new documents, the maintenance of peace in the DPR and LPR will be provided by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

In response, the President of the United States Joe Biden signed a sanctions decree stating that Russia's recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR poses a threat to national security and America's foreign policy interests.

On Monday, trading on European stock exchanges also ended in the red due to another aggravation of the geopolitical situation in eastern Europe. At the same time, at the beginning of the session, the leading stock indicators showed confident positive dynamics against the background of news that French President Emmanuel Macron offered the leaders of the United States and Russia a summit on security issues in Europe. The Presidents of both states accepted the proposal.

However, by the end of the trading day, stock indicators began to decline spectacularly against the background of the prospects of recognition of the independence of the DPR and the LPR by the Russian Federation.

In addition, the internal statistics of the region provided tangible support for the exchange indicator of European stock markets on Monday. Thus, according to preliminary estimates of experts, in February, the composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) of 19 eurozone countries rose to 55.8 points from January's 52.3 points. At the same time, analysts predicted an increase to 52.7 points.

The indicator of activity in the service sector this month jumped to a similar 55.8 points from 51.1 points in January.

The strengthening of the euro against the dollar had a tangible negative impact on the leading stock indices in Europe. So, yesterday, the euro exchange rate against the US currency increased by 0.15% to $ 1.134 per euro. The main support for the European currency was the same strong statistics for the region.

As a result, the Europe Stoxx 600 index of leading European enterprises lost 1.3%, closing at 454.81 points. The securities of the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca (+4%), the Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor (+2.9%), and the French operator of gerontological centers Orpea Group (+1.9%) reported the highest indicators as part of the Europe Stoxx 600 components.

The main outsiders were the shares of British online retailer THG PLC (-8.8%), mining company Polymetal International (-8.5%), and mobile operator Millicom International Cellular SA (-7.6%).

The German DAX fell by 2.07% to 14,731.12 points, the French CAC 40 lost 2.04%, dropping to 6788.34 points, and the British FTSE 100 sank by 0.39% to 7,484.33 points.

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GOLD for February 23

EUR/USD

Analysis:
The wave construction of the European currency chart, which has not been completed for today, has been reported since January 28. This rising wave has a reversal potential. If it is confirmed, the wave will give rise to a new short-term trend. The downward section of the last two weeks has not yet gone beyond the correction.

Forecast:
Today, the price is expected to move between the nearest oncoming zones. In the first half of the day, a downward course is more likely. At the end of the day or tomorrow in the area of settlement support, you can expect a reversal and a resumption of the price rise.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1.1360/1.1390

Support:
- 1.1290/1.1260

Recommendations:
Euro trading in the near future can bring profit only in the form of short-term transactions in a small lot. Purchases will become possible after the appearance of confirmed reversal signals in the area of the support zone.

USD/JPY

Analysis:
The trend rate of the Japanese yen major in the last two years is set by the ascending wave algorithm. Quotes are currently located within the boundaries of the resistance zone of the senior TF. The unfinished section has been counting since November 30 last year. In the last two weeks, the price in sideways flat forms an intermediate pullback.

Forecast:
On the current day, the price is expected to move from the lower border of the price corridor to the area of the calculated resistance. At the European session, pressure on the support zone is not excluded, with a short-term puncture of the lower border.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 115.50/115.80

Support:
- 114.80/114.50

Recommendations:
Today, short-term purchases with a fractional lot from the support zone are possible on the yen chart. It is recommended to close deals at the first signs of an imminent reversal.

GOLD

Analysis:
The rising wave brought gold quotes to the area of the strong resistance of a large TF. Before continuing the rise, the structure needs to increase its wave level in correction.

Forecast:
In the next day, the price is expected to move sideways with a common downward vector. The preliminary target zone runs along the upper boundary of the large-scale support zone.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1905.0/1910.0

Support:
- 1875.0/1870.0

Recommendations:
Short-term fractional lot sales are possible until the current decline is completed. It is optimal to refrain from entering the market of the instrument until the confirmed buy signals appear in the area of the support zone.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 24, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 23:
The European Union published the final data on inflation, which coincided with the preliminary estimate, which showed an acceleration in consumer price growth from 5.0% to 5.1%. This fact was already embedded in the prices, so it was ignored by the market. Now, the center of everyone's attention is the information flow.

February 24 economic calendar:
The United States GDP data is expected to be published today, where, according to forecasts, the second estimate should coincide with the first, which is unlikely to affect the market in any way.

At the same time, weekly data on jobless claims in the U.S. will be published, which are expected to decrease in volume. This is a positive factor for the U.S. labor market if expectations match.

Statistics details:

The volume of initial claims for unemployment benefits may be reduced from 248,000 to 235,000.

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.593M to 1.580M.

Time targeting

U.S. GDP - 13:30 Universal time

U.S. Jobless Claims - 09:30 Universal time

Information and news noise

The flow of information is developing so rapidly that it leads to a wave of speculation in the market. Therefore, the topic of Ukraine leads to sharp price changes in the entire financial sector, whether it is the currency or stock market. It is worth keeping track of the news flow and getting ready for new bursts of activity from speculators.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 24:
In this situation, traders are considering the subsequent recovery of the dollar, where the local low of the downward trend at 1.1121 is used as a guideline. As a variable point of support on the way of sellers, there is coordinate 1.1230, which can locally contain the ardor of speculators. Thus, the subsequent increase in the volume of short positions should be expected after the stable holding of the price below 1.1230 in a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 24:
In this situation, a stable holding of the price below 1.3485 will lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Traders are considering a possible price movement towards the local minimum on January 27 at 1.3357.

An alternative scenario will arise in case of a reduction in the volume of short positions in the support area of 1.3485/1.3500. This will lead to a slowdown in the downward move and, as a result, to a price rebound.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 25/02/2022

Yesterday, the pound was losing its positions for almost the entire day. And this process was accompanied by incessant reports of fighting in Ukraine. Investors were panicking and running away from risk. After all, the war is going on in Europe. This means that the risks extend to the entire continent. After the fighting began to gradually subside and acquire a largely fragmentary character, a banal technical correction began on the market. Which, in general, is not surprising, given the scale of the previous decline. But we are talking about a temporary stop. After the start of the corrective movement, Western countries gradually began to voice the imposed sanctions, which in fact turned out to be not as terrifying as promised. However, Western countries immediately declared that this is only the first block of sanctions, and if military actions do not stop, additional ones will be introduced. So the sanctions themselves have not affected the market in any way so far. They will begin to affect us in the near future. And only in a negative way. The fact is that Russia can fend off most of them with retaliatory sanctions that will cause comparable damage to the economies of Western countries. So now the market is waiting for retaliatory actions from Moscow, which the Kremlin clearly hinted at last night. In other words, yesterday evening's growth of the pound is only temporary and is rather a respite before a new wave of decline.

The British currency against the US dollar in the wake of strong speculation locally lost more than 300 points in value over two trading days. This led to the renewal of the 2022 low and a strong overheating of short positions. As a result, there was a technical correction in the market.

The RSI technical instrument fell to 20.76 in a four-hour period, which signaled a high level of oversold pound.

Moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 indicator indicate a downward trend. There is no intersection between MA lines.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, the correction is still taking place in the market, which led to a partial recovery of the British currency. The values of 1.3450 and 1.3480 can play as a possible resistance on the bulls' way. Thus, the downward move may eventually resume, supporting the general strengthening of dollar positions in the market. The largest increase in the volume of short positions is expected after keeping the price below 1.3350 in the daily period.

A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short-term and intraday periods due to the corrective move. Technical instruments in the medium term indicate a downward move, signaling a sell.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 28, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from February 25:
The previous week ended interestingly. The information flow continued to put pressure on the market. As a result, speculative price jumps could be observed.

February 28 economic calendar:
Monday is traditionally accompanied by a blank macroeconomic calendar. Nevertheless, the massive information and news flow will continue to play on the nerves of speculators, which allows new leaps in the market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 28:
A new trading week opened with a large gap, as a result of which the quote fell to the area of 1.1121. In this situation, a slight rollback is possible, partially restoring the euro against the price gap. At the same time, the downward cycle persists in the market, thus keeping the price below 1.1100 will lead to a prolongation of the downward trend.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on February 28:
In this situation, the stable holding of the price below 1.3350 increases the chances of sellers for a subsequent downward move. Traders consider the local low of the downward trend at 1.3160 as a possible prospect.

An alternative scenario of market development considers a partial recovery of prices relative to the emerging gap. This step will in no way disturb the general downward mood of speculators.

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US stock market closes lower, Dow Jones unchanged

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones remained unchanged at 0%, the S&P 500 fell 0.25%, and the NASDAQ Composite index remained unchanged at 0%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones in today's trading, unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 133.42. Quotes of Boeing Co remained unchanged by 0 points (0%), closing the session at 209.03. Salesforce.com Inc. was unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 196.84.

The biggest losers were JPMorgan Chase & Co shares, which remained unchanged by 0 points (0%), closing the session at 152.14. Goldman Sachs Group Inc was unchanged by 0 points (0%) to close at 346.04, while Nike Inc was down 0 points (0%) to close at 142.95.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which was unchanged at 0% to 257.91, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, which was unchanged at 0% to close at 39.56, and shares of Enphase Energy Inc, which remained unchanged 0%, ending the session at 140.35.

The biggest losers were EPAM Systems Inc, which were virtually unchanged at 0% closing at 443.23. Shares of Viatris Inc remained unchanged at 0% and ended the session at 14.71. Dentsply Sirona Inc remained unchanged by 0% at 55.09.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Mullen Automotive Inc, which was unchanged at 0% to hit 0.63, Neurosense Therapeutics Ltd, which was unchanged at 0% to close at 1.57, and shares of China SXT Pharmaceuticals Inc, which remained unchanged 0%, closing the session at 0.1826.

The losers were VEON Ltd shares, which remained almost unchanged at 0%, closing at 1.3500. Shares of Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc remained unchanged at 0% and ended the session at 2,740. Esports Entertainment Group Inc remained unchanged by 0% at 2.97.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1692) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1554), while quotes of 117 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 1,936 stocks fell, 1,917 rose, and 222 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, remained unchanged at 0% at 27.75.

Gold Futures for April delivery added 0.63%, or 12.05, to $1,911.85 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures rose 3.68%, or 3.32, to $93.53 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 2.10%, or 1.95, to $94.94 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0% to 1.1312, while USD/JPY remained unchanged 0% to hit 114.74.

Futures on the USD index rose 0.10% to 96.112.

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Trading plan for EURUSD for March 02, 2022

Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped through fresh swing lows around 1.1090 levels in the early trading hours on Wednesday. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1115 mark at this point in writing and could print yet another low before finding support. Bulls remain inclined to be back in control anytime soon from current levels.

EURUSD has been showing a bullish divergence on the daily RSI with every low since 1.1186 as depicted on the chart here. It is a strong indication for a potential bullish reversal from here anytime soon. Immediate price resistance is seen at 1.1500 mark and a break higher will confirm a meaningful bottom in place.

EURUSD still remains bullish looking at the larger degree wave structure. The earlier rally between 1.0636 and 1.2350 has been retraced just below its fibonacci 0.618 levels as seen here. High probability remains for a bullish turn from here and push through 1.1500 and 1.1700 levels respectively.

Trading plan:
Potential bullish turn towards 1.1500 and 1.1700 against 1.1000

Good luck!

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US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 1.79%

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 1.79%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.86%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.62%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 9.78 points or 5.35% to close at 192.61. Quotes of Intel Corporation rose by 2.05 points (4.38%), closing the session at 48.87. Dow Inc rose 2.07 points or 3.62% to close at 59.20.

The losers were Visa Inc Class A, which shed 0.49 points or 0.23% to end the session at 208.48. Walmart Inc was down 0.17 points (0.13%) to close at 136.16, while Procter & Gamble Company was up 0.48 points (0.31%) to close at 153. .79.

Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were EPAM Systems Inc, which rose 16.08% to 245.17, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, which gained 10.25% to close at 16.99. as well as shares of Las Vegas Sands Corp, which rose 10.17% to end the session at 44.40.

The biggest losers were Charter Communications Inc, which shed 3.99% to close at 570.99. Shares of Enphase Energy Inc shed 3.93% to end the session at 163.89. Dentsply Sirona Inc lost 3.46% to 52.48.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Ecmoho Ltd, which rose 56.65% to hit 0.37, Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP), which gained 39.19% to close at 2 .06, as well as shares of Regulus Therapeutics Inc, which rose 35.56% to close the session at 0.31.

The biggest losers were SAB Biotherapeutics Inc, which shed 39.87% to close at 2.76. Shares of Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc shed 39.75% to end the session at 6.26. Quotes Puhui Wealth Investment Management Co Ltd fell in price by 36.08% to 0.84.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2431) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (796), while quotes of 119 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2597 companies rose in price, 1210 fell, and 230 remained at the level of the previous close.

SAB Biotherapeutics Inc stock tumbled to all-time lows, down 39.87% or 1.83 points to close at 2.76.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 7.74% to 30.74.

Gold futures for April delivery lost 0.67%, or 13.00, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures rose 7.71%, or 7.97, to $111.38 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.45%, or 0.52, to $115.08 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.02% to 1.11, while USD/JPY rallied 0.03% to hit 115.53.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.03% to 97.37.

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USD/CAD: energy stays strong driver for Canadian dollar

By the end of the week, the Canadian dollar was in high spirits, despite the serious geopolitical conflict around Ukraine. The Canadian dollar rallied on the back of the looming energy crisis, but was unable to consolidate its gains.

This week, the buyers of the Canadian dollar, who took advantage of the decline of the USD/CAD pair by over 150 pips, were in a winning position. As a result, the pair updated the lows recorded at the end of January 2022 and broke support at 1.2600.

USD/CAD is currently near the lowest levels of January. Analysts are expecting a further slide. On March 4, USD/CAD was trading at 1.2698, approaching a level of 1.2700.

The ubiquitous surge in energy prices poses a threat to the European economy. Against this backdrop, a number of key currencies, particularly the European currency, have weakened markedly. Meanwhile, commodity currencies such as the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars have gained strength.

An energy boost helped the Canadian dollar to strengthen. USD/CAD fell from 1.2730 to 1.2595 amid an increase in oil exports. Notably, Canada is one of the largest oil exporters.

The price of oil on the global market is a major trigger for rising inflation. Earlier this week, the price of benchmark Brent added 5%, reaching $115 a barrel. This is the highest figure since 2011, experts emphasize. The bullish rally in the oil market was triggered by investor fears of a global supply shortage and inaction by OPEC+ countries, which have been curbing oil production growth as much as they can.

Traders are concerned about the potential impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the global energy sector. Many Western countries have refrained from imposing sanctions on the Russian energy sector, but some market participants have stopped buying Russian oil. Against the backdrop of disruptions to offshore supplies of Russian crude, global oil production could sag. On March 3, Brent was as high as $120 a barrel.

Another factor supporting the Canadian dollar was a 25 basis points interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. The authority stressed that the regulator was ready for further rate hikes at upcoming meetings. It should be noted that the Bank of Canada has raised its key rate for the first time in 3.5 years and has set a course to further tighten monetary policy. The measure is required to limit inflationary pressures, which have intensified against the backdrop of rising fuel prices. The geopolitical conflict around Ukraine will not prevent further rate hikes, the bank believes.

The Canadian regulator is the second of the Group of Seven (G-7) central banks to increase its rate since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Bank of Canada, a greater reduction in monetary stimulus will be required in the near future. This is necessary to further normalize monetary policy as the risk of stronger consumer price increases remains this year.

According to analysts, the main drivers behind the strength of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD/CAD pair to 1.2500 are oil and monetary ones. The Bank of Canada's hawkish rhetoric contributes to the CAD's strength. The national economy and currency are supported by rising oil prices, as raw materials are the country's key export resource.

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US stock market under pressure from Russia-Ukraine conflict

S&P 500

The US stock market plunged, while the US dollar advanced. The situation in Ukraine and strong data on US nonfarm payrolls.

Major US indices ended lower at the end of the week: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.5%, the NASDAQ Composite slid by 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.8%.

S&P 500: 4,329

Friday's statistics on the US labor market for February turned out to be positive. US nonfarm payrolls increased by 678,000, beating expectations and notching the best month for jobs growth since July. However, this increase followed a fall in December caused by the Omicron outbreak in the US. This means that the labor market has somewhat recovered. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0% in January. In general, the market has almost fully recovered to pre-COVID levels in terms of employment growth and the jobs level.

As for Russia's military actions in Ukraine, the country continues to attack in several directions. Its forces are trying to encircle Kyiv and Kharkov. In the south, the Russians have opened a land corridor between Crimea and the Russian border in the east. Russia is seeking to expand the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The West is discussing new sanctions amid Russia's ongoing attack on Ukraine. Now traders fear that further sanctions will directly limit Russian oil and gas shipments. According to the German authorities, they are ready for such a scenario.

Two rounds of Russia-Ukraine peace talks have yielded almost no results. A third round of negotiations between the parties is set to take place this weekend.

USDX: 98.48. The US dollar hit a new annual high on both the situation in Ukraine and strong data on the US labor market. The Fed is still on track to raise interest rates on March 16.

USD/CAD: 1.2725. The pair continues to trade within the range of 1.2600 - 1.2800

Conclusion: The events unfolding in Ukraine remain the main factor driving the market. However, US stocks seem to be ready to gain on any signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

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US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.56%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.56% to a 6-month low, the S&P 500 index fell 0.73%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.28%.

Caterpillar Inc was the top performer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 13.30 points or 6.76% to close at 210.00. Chevron Corp rose 8.49 points or 5.24% to close at 170.53. Boeing Co rose 4.63 points or 2.74% to close at 173.80.

Shares of Coca-Cola Co were the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 2.42 points (3.96%), ending the session at 58.66. Procter & Gamble Company rose 3.96% or 6.05 points to close at 146.79 while UnitedHealth Group Incorporated shed 2.75% or 13.41 points to close at 473.46.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Enphase Energy Inc, which rose 10.82% to 175.99, SolarEdge Technologies Inc, which gained 10.41% to close at 328.91, and also shares of Quanta Services Inc, which rose 8.17% to close the session at 116.83.

The biggest losers were Seagate Technology PLC, which shed 9.51% to close at 90.57. Shares of ConAgra Foods Inc shed 8.22% to end the session at 30.93. Quotes of Intuitive Surgical Inc decreased in price by 7.98% to 269.32.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 203.31% to 1.00, Kala Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 88.49% to close at 1.15. as well as shares of Westport Fuel Systems Inc, which rose 52.63% to end the session at 2.03.

The drop leaders were shares of Imperial Petroleum Inc, which fell 43.33% to close at 4.25. Shares of Inspirato Inc lost 42.78% to end the session at 15.25. Quotes of Digital Brands Group Inc decreased in price by 30.61% to 1.36.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1694) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (1502), while quotes of 147 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2069 companies rose in price, 1727 fell, and 265 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 3.62% to 35.13.

Gold futures for April delivery added 3.12%, or 62.35, to $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for April delivery rose 4.44%, or 5.30, to $124.70 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for May delivery rose 0.06%, or 0.08, to $129.27 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged at 0.00% to 1.09, while USD/JPY edged up 0.01% to hit 115.67.

Futures on the USD index fell 0.17% to 99.12.

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Trading plan for USDJPY for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
USDJPY rallied through 116.19 highs during early hours of trade on Thursday. The wave structure still remains bearish until prices stay below 116.35 mark as bears remain inclined to be back in control from here. A break below 115.60 will confirm that a lower top is in place around 116.19 and that prices are dragging lower towards 114.40 at least.

USDJPY could drop towards 113.50 and 112.50 in the next few trading sessions. The potential double top reversal pattern will be confirmed on a break below 113.50 mark, going forward. Alternatively, the currency pair is drifting sideways within a rising wedge since 116.35 highs. If the alternate count unfolds, prices could break above 116.35 mark producing a thrust wave higher towards 117.50.

USDJPY needs to break below 114.40 initial support at least, to rule out any further upside or triangle breakout. Even if prices break higher above 116.35 mark, upside remains limited and bears might be back in control sooner than expected. Either way, expect a bearish reversal from here or from 117.00-50 mark.

Trading plan:
Potential drop through 109.00 against 118.50

Trading plan for Gold for March 10, 2022

Technical outlook:
Gold seems to have carved a meaningful top around $2,070 mark on Tuesday. The yellow metal has faced formidable resistance just ahead of the critical swing high around $2,075 in August 2021. Prices are expected to drop one more time through $1,940-45 mark before producing a meaningful pullback going forward.

Gold prices also surpassed the Fibonacci 1.618 extension seen around $2,010 levels as highlighted on the 4H chart here. The extended last leg rally came to an abrupt end around $2,070 as bears came back in control. The downside potential targets remain $1,880 and $1,780 in the medium term. Ideally, prices will remain below $2,070 mark.

Gold finds immediate price support around $1,940, followed by $1,880 and further; while resistance is not fixed at $2,070 mark respectively. A break below $1,940 will confirm that bears are back in control and the trend has reversed for long time. The yellow metal remains a good candidate to be sold on rallies thereafter.

Trading plan:
Potential drop to $1,940 in the near term.

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US stocks closed lower, Dow Jones down 0.34%

At the close on the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.34%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.43%, the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.95%.

Chevron Corp was the top gainer among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 4.55 points or 2.74% to close at 170.82. Walmart Inc rose 3.17 points (2.27%) to close at 142.63. Dow Inc rose 0.83 points or 1.39% to close at 60.63.

Shares of Apple Inc became the leaders of the fall, the price of which fell by 4.43 points (2.72%), ending the session at 158.52. Procter & Gamble Company was up 2.57% or 3.83 points to close at 144.94, while Cisco Systems Inc was down 2.16% or 1.21 points to close at 54.71.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Halliburton Company, which rose 8.93% to hit 37.95, Baker Hughes Co, which gained 8.67% to close at 36.74, and Mosaic Co, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 62.19.

Etsy Inc was the biggest loser, shedding 5.35% to close at 136.98. Shares of EPAM Systems Inc lost 4.86% to end the session at 188.76. Quotes of MSCI Inc decreased in price by 4.69% to 465.26.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 138.10% to hit 1.50, AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd, which gained 102.37% to close at 3.42 , as well as shares of Hoth Therapeutics Inc, which rose 38.79% to close the session at 0.80.

The biggest losers were Trean Insurance Group Inc, which shed 51.70% to close at 3.40. Shares of Fossil Group Inc lost 37.51% and ended the session at 9.08. Quotes TherapeuticsMD Inc fell in price by 27.50% to 0.29.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1836) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1367), and quotes of 128 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,282 companies fell in price, 1,463 rose, and 253 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 6.84% to 30.23.

Gold futures for April delivery added 0.68% or 13.60 to hit $2.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI April futures fell 2.64%, or 2.87, to $105.83 a barrel. Futures for Brent oil for May delivery fell 0.04%, or 0.04, to $109.15 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.05% to 1.10, while USD/JPY rallied 0.00% to hit 116.14.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.58% to 98.53.

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Start of week in cryptocurrency market

The first cryptocurrency fell to $37,100 last week. This was followed by BTC's soaring to $42,500. Digital gold is trading at $39,100 and has a market capitalisation of $743 billion.

According to CoinGecko, the world's largest aggregator of virtual asset data, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 1.3% to $1.81 trillion in the past week.

In November 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high, soaring above the $69,000 mark. Since then, the value of the coin has fallen by more than 40%.

The unpredictable behaviour of the digital coin market has experts making the most unexpected forecasts about its future. For example, many crypto-enthusiasts believe Bitcoin will remain in a small value range in the near future. The reason for the main digital coin's indecision, in their view, remains the foggy prospects in the global economic and political situation. The serious conflict in eastern Europe and the high risks are preventing investors from making big investments in both the crypto market and US stock exchanges.

However, some experts believe that the current volatility in global markets can benefit bitcoin. For example, Steve Wozniak, a well-known American computer programmer, recently said that BTC will soon reach the $100,000 mark. Wozniak believes that the main incentives for the digital coin to take such a leap are the tense geopolitical situation, the constantly growing interest of investors in cryptocurrencies and a soaring inflation rate.

By the way, many analysts have repeatedly called Bitcoin one of the most inflation-resistant assets in the world.

In any case, the focus of this week's crypto market remains the US Federal Reserve's meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Russians coming to the United Arab Emirates are actively selling billions of dollars' worth of digital currency. Amid fears of their own assets being locked up, they are seeking to convert crypto into fiat money and then buying real estate in the UAE.

Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed on his Twitter account that he had no plans to get rid of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin. Musk explained his decision with data from an article on inflation in the international business newspaper Financial Times.

Musk went on to advise his social media followers to invest in physical assets. "It is generally better to own physical things like a home or stock in companies you think make good products, than dollars when inflation is high," he wrote.

Following the Tesla CEO's tweet, the value of Dogecoin instantly rose by 10%.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 15/03/2022

The European Union, as Josep Borrel said, seems to have really exhausted all possibilities for sanctions against Russia. The new sanctions package can be called purely symbolic, as it affects only a number of individuals and legal entities. In addition, Brussels intends to apply to the World Trade Organization for the suspension of the most favored nation regime in relation to Russia. But this point will have practically no effect, since Russia has not exported any goods to Europe anyway, except for raw materials, of course. So the introduction of protective duties, especially against the background of full-scale sanctions, will not affect the Russian economy in any way. It turns out that at least the European Union does not intend to further strengthen the sanctions confrontation, and it is quite possible that Russia will reciprocate. Which of course somewhat calms the market participants.

But another point is much more important. If you believe the statement of the official representatives of Ukraine, the negotiation process seems to have moved from a dead point, and some kind of peace agreement will be reached in the near future. At least, the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, said that it could be achieved within a week. This means that the fighting may soon stop, and with it the flow of refugees to Western Europe will stop. And after all, it is the fighting that is the main reason for the rather large-scale weakening of the pound. The very prospect of their termination in the near future already contributes to its growth, which we have been observing since yesterday. If the situation does not change, and will move in this direction, then this growth will continue.

The GBPUSD currency pair approached the level of 1.3000 with surgical precision, where the downward movement slowed down. The psychological level puts pressure on bears, but in this situation it is considered by traders only as a variable foothold on the path of a downward trend.

The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period, which indicates a high interest of traders in short positions. RSI D1 is in the oversold zone, which is due to the intense downward movement and the important price level of 1.3000.

Alligator H4 and D1 indicate a downward trend. There are no intersections between MA moving lines.

Expectations and prospects:

Despite the high desire of traders to continue to form a downtrend, the level of 1.3000 has a negative impact on the volume of short positions. This may lead to a slowdown in the downward cycle and, as a result, a price pullback.

A complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short term due to a price rollback. Indicators in the intraday and medium-term periods signal a sale, due to a downward trend.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 16, 2022

Details of the economic calendar of March 15:
Data on the UK labor market were published, where the unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 3.9%. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 48,000 during the February period, which is good news. The reaction of the pound sterling was quite restrained, probably, the information and news noise influences the market.

In the European Union, data on industrial production were published, the growth rate of which slowed down from 2.0% to -1.3%. The figures are bad and this is just the beginning as the data for February and March will definitely turn out to be even worse due to the current situation.

During the American trading session, the producer price index in the United States was published, where the indicator remained at the level of 10%.

March 16 economic calendar:
The key event of the day and, possibly, of the week are the results of the Fed meeting, where forecasts for the first refinancing rate increase in four years have been going on for a long time. Based on expectations, an increase of 0.25% is considered, which, with earlier forecasts, is considered the minimum possible change. Note that back in January, they predicted a rate increase of 0.5% at once, but due to recent events, the forecasts were revised.

Now the most important thing is not the rate, but the comments of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, since in the event of a change in strategy regarding the tightening of monetary policy, the U.S. dollar can significantly lose value. If the previously developed strategy of multiple rate hikes continues, the dollar will continue to strengthen.

It is worth considering that the fact of raising the rate even by 0.25% can locally play on the transactions of speculators.

Time targeting

Results of the Fed meeting - 18:00 UTC

Press conference - 18:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 16:
In this situation, price stagnation plays the role of accumulation of trading forces, with a high degree of probability it will lead to new surges in the market. Traders consider the values of 1.0900 and 1.1020 as signal levels. Holding the price outside one of the levels will indicate an impulse move in the price.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 16:
Despite the importance of the 1.3000 level, the downward trend prevails on the market. This can lead to a breakdown of the psychological level, where the current amplitude will become a lever for traders.

As a trading recommendation, consider two market development scenarios:

The first scenario is based on the breakdown of the level of 1.3000, where the confirmation of this signal will be the holding of the price below 1.2950 in a four-hour period.

The second scenario considers a price pullback from a psychologically important level. Buy positions will be active after holding the price above the value of 1.3080 in a four-hour period. This step will only temporarily change the trajectory of the main trend.

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EU stocks maintain upward movement

At the close of trading on Wednesday, the main EU stock indices advanced amid rising risk appetite. In addition, market participants were awaiting the results of the FOMC meeting. They also continued to monitor news on the Russia- Ukraine conflict.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index grew by 3% to 448.45. The biggest gainers were Dutch conglomerate Prosus NV (+23.2%), Norwegian IT company Adevinta ASA (+15.8%), and Russian mining giant Polymetal International PLC (+14%).

The FTSE 100 Index jumped by 1.62% to 7291.68, while the CAC 40 index added 3.68%, hitting 6588.64. The DAX rose by 3.76%, approaching a 2-week high of 14440.74.

The shares of E.ON, the largest German energy supplier, climbed by 3.8%. The day before, the company reported an increase in adjusted net profit by 53% in annual terms following the results of last year. The earnings result significantly exceeded market expectations.

E.ON also points out that it expects a decrease in adjusted profit in 2022. The company is unable to assess the negative consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for its operation yet.

The capitalization of EQT AB, the Swedish investment company, soared by 13% after it announced the acquisition of rival private-equity firm Baring Private Equity Asia for $ 7.5 billion.

On Wednesday, risk sentiment significantly increased in global markets. The stock indices of the Asia-Pacific region closed in the black. The Hang Seng index surged by 9% amid information that the Chinese authorities will adopt new rules for supervising the listing of companies on foreign exchanges. Meanwhile, the US stock markets also reported stable growth of 1-2%.

On Thursday, investors are anticipating the publication of the results of the FOMC meeting. According to preliminary estimates, the US regulator will raise the key rate to 0.25-0.5% per annum. Such an increase will be the first since the fall of 2018.

In addition, the Bank of England's meeting is scheduled for Thursday. Analysts assume that the central bank will announce a rate hike to 0.75% from 0.5% per annum.

As widely expected, the ECB kept the interest rate at zero and the deposit rate at minus 0.5% at the meeting last week.

At the same time, the regulator adjusted the volume of asset purchases. Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June.

Apart from that, the watchdog downgraded the forecast for Eurozone GDP growth from 4.2% to 3.2% in 2022.

Analysts reckon that traders were disappointed by the lack of reaction from the ECB to the war in eastern Europe. Following the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Western states have permanently imposed sanctions against Russia. Last week, President Joe Biden banned the import of petroleum products from Russia. Large global corporations have partially or completely suspended their activities in Russia despite the prospects of s drop in their own profits.

Geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe remain in the limelight this week. The day before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that there was hope for a compromise in negotiations with Ukraine. At the same time, Western media publish quotes from speeches of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, e.g. that talks with Russia were sounding 'more realistic'.

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European stocks rose on Friday for the third trading session in a row

Investors continued to evaluate the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve System and the Bank of England, according to Trading Economics.

The composite index of the largest companies in Europe Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.9% during the day and amounted to 454.62 points. Since last Friday, it has risen by more than 5%, the highest gain since November 2020. At the same time, the indicator ended "in positive territory" for the second week in a row.

The German DAX index on Friday rose by 0.2%, the British FTSE 100 - by 0.3% (having reached a maximum in two weeks), the French CAC 40 and the Spanish IBEX 35 - by 0.1%, the Italian FTSE MIB - by 0. 4%.

Over the past week, the CAC 40 is up 5.8%, the FTSE 100 is up 3.4% (the biggest gain since November 2020), and the DAX is up about 5%.

The leading gainer among Stoxx 600 components on Friday was HelloFresh SE, a food kit delivery company, up 9.7%. Quotes of securities of other representatives of this sector also rose significantly: Ocado Group Plc - by 7.6% and Delivery Hero SE - by 7.3%.

Shares of the German developer of software for remote access to computers TeamViewer rose in price by 6.6%, another IT company Softcat Plc - by 6%.

Meanwhile, Polymetal International, Russia's largest silver producer and one of the leading gold miners, plunged 13.6%. This is the worst result among the Stoxx 600 companies.

In addition, shares of reinsurance firm Hannover Rueck SE (-4.5%), media company ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (-4.2%), developers Entra ASA (-3.7%) and Vonovia SE (-3 .3%).

On the British market, shares of mining companies rose in price, including Anglo American (+0.8%) and BHP (+0.4%).

Ted Baker Plc jumped more than 17% after investment firm Sycamore Partners Management LP confirmed it was considering an offer to buy the clothing retailer.

Papers BATM Advanced Communications Ltd. rose by 1.4%. A telecommunications technology and systems provider for medical laboratories has entered into a strategic partnership with Taiwan's NEXCOM International Co.

Capitalization of Electricite de France SA increased by 1.7% - up to 9.47 euros. The French energy company plans to raise 3.1 billion euros through an additional issue. EDF will place 500 million new shares on the stock exchange at a price of 6.35 euros per share. The company will give its shareholders a priority right to purchase.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 22, 2022

March 22 economic calendar:
Tuesday is not much different from Monday, the macroeconomic calendar is still empty. Traders will continue to analyze the information flow for hot topics.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 22:
Stable retention of the price below the level of 1.1000 may well lead to a subsequent recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent correction. In case of a coincidence of expectations, the euro rate may fall to the values of 1.0900-1.0800.

An alternative scenario for the development of the market will be considered by traders if the quote returns above 1.1050. This step may well disrupt the recovery process.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 22:
In this situation, traders are still considering the trading tactics of breaking one or another control value relative to the price stagnation. In this regard, buy positions will be valid after holding the price above 1.3210 in a four-hour period, and sell positions would be active after holding the price below 1.3080 in a four-hour period.

ETH surpasses BTC in terms of growth rate

Ethereum soared above $3,000 on Tuesday. The coin has advanced by 3% over the last 24 hours and has added 16% over the past week. At the moment of writing, the altcoin traded at $3,009.76.

On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency updated the February high, and its market capitalization hit $361 billion.

The surge came after BTC, the world's largest digital asset, reached $43,300 and broke through the high as of March 3. As a reminder, bitcoin has traded sideways in the range between $37,000 and $42,000 for about a month.

However, after approaching the high on Tuesday, BTC started to gradually decrease. At the moment of writing, digital gold traded at $42,500. The asset has increased by 3% over the past 24 hours and has grown by 7.1% over the past seven days.

The spike in the value of ETH came amid expectations of the updates that could change the mining process of the altcoin.

Today, pressure mainly came from buyers in Europe and the United States, analysts at Glassnode said. Meanwhile, market players in the Asian region were more willing to sell the asset.

Other popular tokens showed steady growth, following a rise in BTC and ETH. Thus, Dogecoin grew 4.1% to $0.124. Uniswap and Cardano appreciated by about 5%.

The total capitalization of the crypto market came in at $2,02 trillion, according to CoinGecko, the world's largest cryptocurrency data aggregator.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 24/03/2022

The single European currency is losing its position again. Although the scale of yesterday's decline turned out to be quite modest. But today this process has continued. And it is sustainable. The reason lies solely in the plane of energy carriers.

First, US President Joe Biden once again stated that during his visit to Europe he would seek from the EU the imposition of an embargo on oil and gas supplies from Russia. But Europe is extremely dependent on Russian energy supplies, and it is not at all clear what to replace them with. The United States itself can export only insignificant volumes, which will not be enough to replace Russian supplies. And this is not counting the fact that fuel prices in the United States, if lower than in Europe, then quite a bit. Whereas in Russia they are five or even six times lower. So if the United States manages to bend Europe, it will inevitably face both a real shortage of energy resources and an even greater increase in fuel prices. This is akin to the destruction of the European economy as such.

Secondly, Russia decided yesterday to sell gas for rubles. The truth is only for unfriendly countries, to which the whole of Western Europe belongs. Of course, this caused a shock, since for the entire post-war history, the prices of raw materials in the world were denominated exclusively in dollars. Roughly speaking, there was a unified pricing and settlement system. This is extremely convenient, and allows you to bring prices to a certain uniform standard, which reduces the cost. If prices are formed in different currencies, it will lead to chaos. The world is used to a single pricing system. And inevitably, this will lead to an increase in raw material prices. However, there is really no talk of any paradigm shift. It's all about the reservation regarding unfriendly countries. It contains an opportunity to bypass this solution. It's just that the buyers will not be the countries of the European Union, but some others. For example, from North Africa or the Middle East. But the gas itself will still be supplied to Europe. Only at slightly higher prices.

So as a result, the cost of energy carriers for Europe will still grow, which will have an extremely negative impact on the European economy. So it is not surprising that the European currencies are losing ground. And oddly enough, Russia's decision allows the European Union to even go for an embargo, since it will still buy gas through intermediaries, and not directly. But Europe will still have to pay dearly. That is the main factor in the weakening of the single European currency.

The EURUSD currency pair completed the consolidation move in the range of 1.1010/1.1045 by breaking the lower border. This move led to speculative activity, which enabled traders to stay below the psychological 1.1000 level.

The RSI technical instrument in the four-hour period confirmed the completion of the consolidation by the rebound of the indicator from the 50 line.

The Alligator H4 indicator has left the phase of intertwining MA moving lines, indicating a downward trend. Alligator D1 still indicates a downward trend in the medium term. There are no intersections between the moving MA lines.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, the primary signal to sell the euro was received in the course of holding the price below the level of 1.1000. Strengthening of the existing signal will occur when the price stays below 1.0960 in a four-hour period. This move may well restart dollar positions in the direction of 1.0900-1.0800. Otherwise, we are in for a turbulence within the boundaries of 1.0960/1.1150.

A complex indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the price rebound from the resistance level. Indicators in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

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Pound sterling fluctuates as BoE revises plans due to inflation

The pound sterling has made slight gains over the week. However, GBP remains in a downtrend. Growing inflationary and geopolitical risks are putting pressure on the British currency, forcing the Bank of England to change its earlier plans.

Inflation in the UK has reached the highest point in 30 years, cancelling the plans of the British government. In February, consumer prices added 6.2%, and producer price inflation reached 10.1%. The government planned to impose the highest taxes in years next month to help economic recovery and prevent inflation from spiraling out of control.

Originally, the national insurance rate was to be increased by 1.25%, which would contribute £12 billion to state coffers. However, this plan was suspended due to difficult economic situation, UK finance minister Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday, March 23.

Furthermore, the government reduced payroll taxes, cut the basic rate of income tax, and decreased the fuel duty. These measures are aimed at helping poorer families cope with rising prices. However, these plans are unlikely to affect the actual economic situation. According to projections by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), the cost of living for the poorest could rise by 10%, while their benefits will increase by just 3.1%. The Bank of England estimates that inflation could rise to 8% in April. However, its actual level exceeds these projections.

This situation is detrimental to the pound sterling in the long term. GBP is currently struggling to hold its current fragile position. Amid a protracted price increase, the British pound decreased on Thursday, March 24. GBP is fluctuating up and down, which are unbalancing the pound sterling's price dynamics. GBP/USD was moving within the 1.3214-1.3215 range early on Friday, trying to escape the downward spiral.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend staying short on GBP, as markets price in too much tightening from the Bank of England this year - up to 5 interest rate increases in 2022.

Many economists are cautious with their outlooks, because the UK economy is in a difficult situation, and its currency is far from stable.

The Bank of England is conducting its current monetary policy in accordance with the challenges at hand, adjusting it depending on the current situation. The UK central bank has increased the key rate 3 times over the past 4 months. The hikes helped GBP advance against EUR, but weakened GBP/USD. Experts do not rule out another increase at the next BoE meeting on April 14.

The economic slowdown in the UK and geopolitical uncertainty demands caution in making key decisions from the Bank of England. As real disposable income falls and energy prices soar, the UK economy is expected to weaken.

Earlier outlooks suggested inflationary pressure would peak in April, with prices reaching 8%. However, stronger negative tendencies in the economy could send prices skyward throughout the year, experts predict. The Bank of England suggests further monetary tightening is appropriate amid skyrocketing real inflation in the UK.

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Will the dollar lead the new monetary system?

The U.S. currency started the new week with cautious movements, with an eye on the current geopolitical situation. Tensions in the air have gripped the global financial arena. Some analysts believe that the way out of this situation is the formation of a new monetary system.

In the event of such a scenario, the dollar will be among the minor currencies. The place of the USD in the new financial order does not provide for the unconditional leadership of the latter. A similar long-term forecast for the EUR/USD pair was published by Zoltan Pozsar, an analyst at Credit Suisse. Based on a number of factors, he stated changes in the global monetary order.

In his report "Bretton Woods III", Pozsar sets out his point of view on the formation of a new system of settlements and currency relations: "We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West."

The expert emphasized that at the moment "a crisis of commodities is unfolding... and this crisis is about the rising allure of outside money over inside money." According to Pozsar, the basis of the Bretton Woods II system was internal means of payment. However, this bulk, which was considered unshakable, "crumbled a week ago when the G7 seized Russia's FX reserves," Pozsar said.

Recall that the former global financial system, Bretton Woods, provided for the dominance of the U.S. currency. It reached its greatest prosperity from 1944 to 1976, when the dollar took the leading place in the system of international settlements and storage of global reserves. However, now the USD is losing its dominant position, experts believe.

The world is preparing to update the existing monetary order, being on the threshold of the end of the "Eurodollar era." The era of regional currencies in the East begins, which are backed by goods. Such a scenario will lead Western countries to another round of inflation, experts say.

Many experts do not agree with this point of view and still believe in the stability of the greenback. According to analysts, the end of the "dollar hegemony era" is unlikely in the next few years. To prove this, arguments are given about the predominant number of currency transactions that are made in dollars. At the same time, the lion's share of global bank reserves is in the U.S. currency. Refusal of the greenback is possible only in the event of a large-scale global crisis comparable to the Second World War. Recall that after its completion, the USD acquired the status of a world currency.

The replacement of the dollar by the yuan, which has been much talked about lately, is hardly possible in the foreseeable future. According to experts, the Chinese currency does not have such a strong base and global recognition as the U.S. dollar. Such a level of confidence in the yuan, as in the USD, has not yet been formed. At the same time, China is a cunning and cautious market player, analysts are sure. The Chinese government is able to deal harshly with their trading partners and is very reluctant to go beyond their interests, which are mainly related to the Asia-Pacific region.

The disadvantage of the Chinese currency is its small number in the global financial system. Currently, the share of the greenback in international trade settlements is approaching 50%, and in reserves, it reaches 60%. At the same time, the share of the yuan does not exceed 5%, analysts emphasize.

Currently, the U.S. currency is trying not to miss a single opportunity for growth. According to COT reports, over the past week, major market players have significantly increased their positions to buy contracts for the dollar index (USDX). As a result, the net position on it rose from the lows recorded since September 2021.

The current data on the dollar index (USDX) fixes the growth of "bullish" sentiment on the U.S. currency. On Monday, March 28, the dollar index (the rate against a basket of currencies of six countries - key U.S. trading partners) rose by 0.37% to 989.15 points. This week, economists expect an increase in U.S. GDP by 7% and a reduction in unemployment in the country to 3.7%. Optimism about the U.S. currency is also promoted by the build-up of traders' positions on the rise of the latter.

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US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.27%

At the close in the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.27% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 index rose 0.71%, the NASDAQ Composite index rose 1.31%.

Shares of Microsoft Corporation were the leaders of the gains among the components of the Dow Jones index in today's trading, which gained 7.02 points (2.31%) to close at 310.70. Salesforce.com Inc rose 4.25 points or 2.01% to close at 215.28. Walmart Inc rose 2.55 points or 1.78% to close at 146.00.

The losers were shares of Chevron Corp, which lost 2.96 points or 1.75% to end the session at 166.35. Dow Inc was up 0.59 points (0.91%) to close at 64.11, while JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 1.05 points (0.74%) to close at 140. .87.

Leading gainers among the S&P 500 index components in today's trading were Tesla Inc, which rose 8.03% to hit 1.00, Carnival Corporation, which gained 5.49% to close at 19.40, and Etsy Inc, which rose 4.70% to end the session at 138.54.

The biggest losers were Discovery Inc Class A, which shed 6.47% to close at 25.58. Shares of Discovery Communications C Inc shed 6.15% to end the session at 25.63. Quotes of Mosaic Co decreased in price by 4.72% to 67.97.

Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, which rose 81.25% to hit 2.32, DatChat Inc, which gained 61.45% to close at 2.68, and also shares of Newegg Commerce Inc, which rose 43.41% to end the session at 7.40.

The biggest losers were Clever Leaves Holdings Inc, which shed 50.26% to close at 1.91. Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp lost 46.85% to end the session at 1.18. Quotes of Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc decreased in price by 35.96% to 16.01.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (1,715) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,490), and quotes of 134 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2,051 stocks fell, 1,843 rose, and 199 remained at the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 5.67% to 19.63, hitting a new monthly low.

Gold futures for April delivery lost 1.64%, or 32.10, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for May delivery fell 9.18%, or 10.46, to $103.44 a barrel. Brent futures for June delivery fell 9.01%, or 10.58, to $106.79 a barrel.

Meanwhile, in the forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.07% to 1.10, while USD/JPY rose 1.45% to hit 123.83.

Futures on the USD index rose by 0.27% to 99.08.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 30, 2022

March 30 economic calendar
Today, the ADP report on employment in the United States is expected to be published, which is projected to grow by 450,000 in March. This is a positive signal for the labor market if the data is confirmed.

Almost simultaneously with the ADP report, the final data on the United States GDP for 2021 will be published. The data will likely be left without much attention, which will confirm the preliminary assessment.

Time targeting

ADP report - 12:15 Universal time

U.S. GDP - 12:30 Universal time

Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 30
In this situation, the local maximum at 1.1137 plays the role of resistance, which temporarily put pressure on buyers in the form of a technical pullback. In order for the upward cycle to be extended to new price levels, the quote needs to stay above 1.1180 in a four-hour period. This step will lead to further formation of a corrective move from the pivot point 1.0800. At the same time, the regular basis of the past, associated with the 1.1120/1.1180 area, may well put pressure on long positions. In this case, a slowdown in the upward cycle is possible, followed by a weakening of the euro, following the example of a price rebound on March 17th.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on March 30
In this situation, a characteristic uncertainty could arise due to the convergence of the price with the psychologically important level of 1.3000, where there was a reduction in the volume of short positions in history. The risk of a price rebound from the pivot point in the market remains, so the prolongation of the downward cycle will be considered by traders only after holding the quote below 1.3000 in a four-hour period. Until then, a variable or a local pullback is possible.

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US stocks extend losses after confident rise early this week​​​​​​​

On Thursday, the main European stock indices continue to drop. However, at the beginning of the trading session, they climbed higher but later resumed the downward movement. Market participants are deeply concerned about the prospects of a slowdown in the global economy. The weakening of inflation fears amid a drawdown in oil prices limits the upward movement in European stock exchanges.

At the time of writing this article, the STOXX Europe 600 lost 0.12%, dropping to 459.63.

The shares of Swedish IT company Sinch AB (-10.7%), Polish logistics company InPost SA (-4%), as well as Telecom Italia SpA (-3.2%) incurred the biggest losses.

The largest gainers were the stocks of Russian gold mining company - Polymetal International (+8.1%) and Orpea SA (+4.8%).

On Thursday, the DAX index is down by 0.04%. The FTSE MIB shed 0.2%, the IBEX 35 decreased by 0.15%, the FTSE 100 slid down by 0.04%, and the CAC 40 dropped by 0.16%.

Despite a constant decrease in recent days, the leading European indices will end March on a positive note. The Stoxx 600 grew by 4%, while the DAX rose by 5%.

H&M shares nosedived by 8.5%. Despite the company's upbeat earnings report in the first quarter of the current financial year, the net profit was lower than analysts' forecasts.

The capitalization of UK investment company Brewin Dolphin Holdings instantly soared by more than 60% on the news that the Royal Bank of Canada agreed to buy it for $ 2.1 billion.

During Wednesday's trading session, the major EU indices closed in the red after a spectacular rise a day earlier. The day before, market participants assessed the prospects of a recovery in the global economy amid the geopolitical woes in Eastern Europe.

As a result, the STOXX Europe 600 index sank by 0.41% to 460.19.

The shares of UK advertising company S4 Capital Plc logged the steepest drop among the companies included in the index. Its stock collapsed by 36%. S4 Capital Plc announced another delay in the publication of the earnings report due to problems with the PricewaterhouseCoopers audit.

The CAC 40 index lost 0.74% on Wednesday, the DAX shed 1.45%, the FTSE MIB decreased by 0.03%, and the IBEX 35 slid down by 0.74%. Only the FTSE 100 index grew by 0.55%.

Yesterday, the stocks of companies doing business in Russia also incurred losses. French conglomerates Societe Generale and BNP Paribas sank by 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively. Renault shares fell by 4%.

The shares of Swiss financial holding UBS Group AG dropped by 1.5%. Even the announcement of the launch of a new share-buyback program of up to $6 billion the day before did not boost the company's shares. The program is scheduled to begin today. It will stay in effect for two years,

The main reason for a sharp decline in the DAX index was the outlook for Germany's economy. Earlier, analysts lowered its GDP outlook for the current year amid the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Thus, the growth of gross domestic product may total only 1.8%. In November 2021, economists predicted an increase in GDP by 4.6% in 2022.

As for macroeconomic figures for Germany, in March, the inflation rate soared to 7.3% in annual terms from 5.1% in February. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the indicator hit an all-time high.

Inflation in Spain surged to 9.8% in March from 7.6% in February, notching the highest level since 1985. At the same time, experts predicted an increase of only 8%.

According to preliminary data, in March, the consumer confidence index in Sweden plunged to 73.5 from February 89, reaching a 30-year low.

Another bearish factor for the DAX index was a dazzling rise in oil prices on Wednesday. Crude oil increased by 3%, while gas prices in Europe jumped by 9%.

The FTSE 100 was up amid a rally in the commodity market. As a result, the oil and gas industries in the eurozone expanded by 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The capitalization of French energy giant TotalEnergies, UK Petroleum, and Glencore rose by 2.5%, 3.1%, and 4.2%, respectively.

Geopolitical tensions, which began more than a month ago, have adversely affected stock markets worldwide. In addition, analysts are confident that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will slow down the expansion of the global economy as well as trigger a surge in inflation and shortages of raw materials in some countries.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 04/04/2022​​​​​​​

Given the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, it is only surprising that the pound's decline on Friday was more of a symbolic nature. And so, 460,000 new jobs were not created outside of agriculture, but 431,000. But even this is still almost twice as much as is necessary to maintain a stable unemployment rate. Which by the way decreased from 3.8% to 3.6%, with a forecast of 3.7%. And it looks like it will continue to decline. There are practically no doubts about this. And apparently, the pound was supported by the single European currency, the decline of which also turned out to be rather modest. However, this appears to be just a temporary phenomenon. Macroeconomic data is clearly in favor of the US dollar. Europe, on the other hand, cannot boast of such figures. As it is much worse. And the dynamics is rather exclusively negative. Whereas in the United States, macroeconomic statistics are more often encouraging than disappointing. So there is no doubt that the pound will gradually lose its positions against the US dollar.

Unemployment rate (United States):

The GBPUSD currency pair continues to move in the 1.3105/1.3180 range, despite the bears' attempts to overcome its lower limit. Long-term price movement in a closed range leads to the process of accumulation of trading forces, which can lead to acceleration in the market.

The RSI technical instrument is moving along the middle line 50 in a four-hour period, which indicates a stagnation. RSI D1 is moving in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, signaling the high interest of traders in a downward move.

The Alligator H4 indicator has a lot of crossovers between the moving MA lines, which confirms the signal of stagnation. Alligator D1 signals a downward trend, MA moving lines are directed downwards.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, traders are still considering the trading tactics of breaking through one or another flat border. In this regard, long positions will be valid after keeping the price above 1.3185 in a four-hour period, and short positions would be valid after keeping the price below 1.3100 in a four-hour period.

Complex indicator analysis has a variable signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to stagnation. Indicators in the medium term give a sell signal due to a downward trend.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 5, 2022​​​​​​​

The pound has been marking time for a whole week, although there is no talk of any lull in the foreign exchange market. The single European currency, for example, has been steadily going down for several days now. At the same time, the UK cannot boast of any remarkable macroeconomic data, so the behavior of the British currency is no longer surprising, but fearful.

The market cannot stand still for so long, and even for no apparent reason. This only speaks of an excessive speculative component, which will inevitably make itself felt. It is most logical to assume that the British pound will move downwards, following the euro. But due to the excessive speculative component, upward movement is also possible. And this scenario seems to be the most realistic. That is, first a sharp jump up, and then a rapid reversal and a rapid upward movement.

But all this needs a reason. Given that the macroeconomic calendar is empty, and in general the pound ignores statistics, everything will depend on the general information background. Therefore, it is worth keeping a close eye on the news feed of the largest media outlets. Any news that in one way or another will affect the UK and its economy can become the very trigger that starts this whole process.

But the euro seems to have finally realized that there is a serious gap between the United States and the European Union in terms of macroeconomic statistics. And not much in favor of the euro area. In general, the single European currency steadily went down during the American session. This shows that European traders still deny the reality, while American traders look at things a little more rationally.

The euro continues to be under serious pressure, and it is not yet clear when it will be able to break out of this state. More specifically, what can help it. Macroeconomic indicators are increasingly suggesting that Europe is bearing the greatest losses due to the sanctions confrontation between the West and Russia.

The EURUSD currency pair has reached a variable pivot in the form of the 1.0940/1.0965 area during an intensive downward movement. This led to a slight slowdown with signs of a possible pullback. The subsequent increase in the volume of short positions is expected after holding the price below the value of 1.0940 in a four-hour period. Until then, the risk of a rebound remains.

The GBPUSD currency pair has been moving in the 1.3100/1.3180 side channel for almost a week now. This indicates uncertainty and possible speculative activity in the future. Trading tactics consider the method of breaking through one or another border with confirmation in a four-hour period.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 06/04/2022​​​​​​​

The pound stayed for a long time, and has demonstrated incredible stability. But yesterday everything changed, and it finally followed the single European currency. That is, to the downside. At the same time, it completely repeated the typical scenario for the last few days for the euro. The British currency stood still during the European session, and after the opening of the US one, it went down. But yesterday, both major European currencies had enough reasons to fall. Although to be precise, there is only one reason. The notorious energy carriers. Just at the opening of the US trading session, publications appeared in the media on the topic that the new block of European sanctions against Russia would include restrictions on coal supplies. We are not talking about a complete ban on imports. It is planned to reduce the volume of deliveries by about 4 billion euros, which is about a third of all coal supplies from Russia to Europe. Naturally, an extremely simple question immediately arises - how does Europe plan to compensate for the falling volumes. Moreover, Europe is already facing an unprecedented increase in fuel prices and inflation. There is no doubt that this decision, if of course it is made, will cause Europe the most serious damage. Including an even greater increase in inflation. The sanctions themselves should be adopted today or tomorrow. And if this issue is delayed, the pressure on the pound will only increase. Uncertainty scares investors the most. But in any case, at least today, the pound will remain under pressure.

The long-playing 1.3105/1.3180 horizontal channel for the GBPUSD pair was broken through on a downward trajectory. This led to speculation in the market, where the pound fell to the area of 1.3060. In fact, the bears tried to return the quote to the support level of 1.3000, playing a 100% corrective move.

The RSI technical instrument moves in the lower area of the 30/50 indicator in a four-hour period, which signals a high interest of traders in short positions.

The Alligator H4 indicator has a primary sell signal after a long intertwining between the moving MA lines. Alligator D1 is signaling a downward trend, MA moving lines are directed to the downside.

Expectations and prospects:

At the moment, the quote has slightly slowed down the downward movement, where the 1.3050/1.3060 area serves as a variable support. Keeping the price below these values is highly likely to lead to a further decline towards the support level of 1.3000. Until then, a rollback to the lower border of the passed flat is possible.

Comprehensive indicator analysis gives a sell signal in the short, intraday and medium term due to the rapid downward movement.

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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 13, 2022

Economic calendar for April 13
Data on the UK inflation were published today, which saw an acceleration in consumer price growth from 6.2% to 7.0% with a forecast of 6.7%. Such high inflation is damaging the economy, which is a negative factor for the pound sterling.

During the American trading session, the producer price index in the United States will be published, which is expected to grow from 10.0% to 10.6%. Rising prices will lead to further inflation, which is already at historical levels.

All this is a negative factor for the US economy.

Time targeting

US producer price index - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 13
In this situation, holding the price below the level of 1.0800 in a four-hour period will indicate a continuation of the trend. This may lead to a subsequent movement towards the local minimum of 2020.

An alternative scenario for the development of the market considers another slowdown in the downward move within 1.0800. This may lead to a temporary pullback, but not to a change in trading interests.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 13
The price stagnation within the deviation of the 1.3000 level will soon end. With a high degree of probability, it will become a lever for speculators in the upcoming acceleration in the market. It is worth considering that the signal of prolongation of the downward trend will be confirmed only after the price is kept below the value of 1.2950 in a four-hour period.

As for the upward development of the price, traders consider this scenario as a local rebound of the price from the support level of 1.3000. The signal for action will come from the market at the moment the price is held above the value of 1.3055. In the future, this move may lead to the 1.3105 mark, after which a price reversal is not excluded.

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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 14/04/2022

The single European currency showed a rather unexpected growth yesterday. Although it was insignificant, nonetheless. Moreover, the producer price index in the United States rose from 10.3% to 11.2%. But just a day earlier, a stronger than expected increase in inflation in the United States led to a rise in the dollar, as it finally convinced everyone that the Federal Reserve would actively raise the refinancing rate. The producer price index is a leading indicator for inflation, so it will continue to grow. Therefore, it is quite possible that by the end of this year the refinancing rate will be raised as much as 3.0%.

Producer Price Index (United States):

But the fact is that simultaneously with the release of these data, new forecasts for inflation in the UK were published. The Bank of England expects inflation to peak just in April, stopping at 7.2%. After that, it will gradually decrease. But investment banks think otherwise, and in their opinion, inflation will accelerate to 9.0%, which is quite different from the forecast of the Bank of England. Given the current inflationary dynamics, the forecast from the banking sector seems more realistic. And in this case, the Bank of England will have to react somehow. Of course, we are talking about a further increase in the refinancing rate. This was the reason for the pound's growth, which has already pulled the euro. This is clearly seen by the fact that the pound grew more actively than the euro.

Data on retail sales in the United States will be published today, the growth rate of which may slow down from 17.6% to 11.0%. However, this news will be ignored in principle, since European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's press conference will begin at the same time. The main event of the day is the meeting of the Board of the ECB. Interest rates, of course, will remain unchanged, as will all other parameters of the monetary policy pursued by the central bank. Only subsequent comments are of interest. If, as before, nothing is said about plans to raise the refinancing rate, then the dollar will resume its growth. But if Lagarde at least hints at the possibility of an increase in interest rates before the end of this year, then in this case the euro will begin to grow actively.

Retail Sales (United States):

The EURUSD currency pair, after the control convergence with the support level of 1.0800, the volume of short positions has sharply decreased. This led to a local stagnation, and then to a price rebound by about 100 points. A comparative analysis of the two trading instruments EURUSD and GBPUSD showed the possibility of a positive correlation, where due to the sharp strengthening of the British currency, there could be a rush to buy the euro.

The technical instrument RSI H4 crossed the 50 middle line during the strengthening of the euro. This signal indicates a corrective move.

The Alligator H4 indicator has a primary intersection between the moving lines, which also allows for a corrective move. Alligator D1 indicates a downward trend, MA moving lines are directed to the downside.

Expectations and prospects:

In this situation, much will depend on the external background, in particular, the results of the ECB meeting. As for the technical levels, the 1.0940 coordinate variable on the bulls' way, which can play the role of resistance if the hype for long positions subsides. If the price stays above 1.0950, it is highly likely that the correction will continue to form towards the psychological level of 1.1000.

Complex indicator analysis gives a signal to buy in the short-term and intraday periods due to the rapid growth of the euro. Indicators in the medium term have a sell signal due to a downward trend.

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Gold went into the shadow of a strong dollar

This week, the demand for safe-haven assets has increased significantly. Gold has benefited from another spike in US inflation. But it seems that bullion is starting to seriously lose to the more reliable dollar.

Yesterday's trading on the New York COMEX was the last one this week. Today, many US markets are closed due to the Good Friday holiday.

Gold finished the shortened working week with an increase. Since Monday, its quotes have increased by 1.5%. The main growth driver for the yellow asset was the statistics on consumer prices in the US for March.

Last month, inflation in America accelerated to 8.5% year on year. This is a new 40-year high. The last time the rate was at such a high level was in January 1982.

The record price increase not only increased the value of the precious metal, but also reinforced the Fed's intention to raise interest rates more sharply at its next meeting.

In March, the US central bank raised rates by 25 bp for the first time in four years. Now that inflationary pressures have increased, it is highly likely that the Fed's next move will be to raise the rate by 50 bps.

This version was confirmed on Thursday by New York Fed President John Williams. He said raising interest rates by half a percentage point in May would be a "smart option" for the US central bank.

The hawkish rhetoric of Fed officials has fueled US Treasury yields across the curve. This acted as fuel for the dollar.

Yesterday the greenback index jumped 0.5% against its main competitors. The currency broke through the psychologically important level of 100 points.

The steep dive of the euro also helped the greenback to strengthen. The EU currency fell sharply on the European Central Bank's dovish position. Yesterday, the ECB's meeting for monetary policy took place. The central bank decided to leave its course unchanged for the time being.

Another driver for the dollar was the release of the consumer sentiment index of the University of Michigan. In April, the indicator rose sharply to 65.7 from the March value of 59.4 points.

The powerful momentum that the greenback received had a negative impact on gold quotes. On Thursday, the asset fell 0.5%, or $9.80. The price dropped to $1,974.90. This is the first drop in the value of the precious metal in six trading sessions.

Recall that in the outgoing week, bullion tested a critical level on the way to $2,000. But, according to analysts, gold will not be able to break out of the current price range in the near future. The main obstacle is the dollar.

Now we are seeing strong bullish dynamics of the US currency. According to forecasts, it will continue in the short term. As long as the greenback index remains above 100, the yellow asset has almost no chance of approaching $2,000.

What can help gold?
In the foreseeable future, the gold market will continue to follow the rhetoric of the world's central banks, many of which are hawkish. The Bank of England's interest rate decision is particularly important now.

Tightening the policy of major central banks may lead to a weakening of the US currency. This is a favorable factor for the precious metal.

In addition to the fall of the dollar, bullion may receive support from geopolitics. Currently, most experts predict a further escalation of the military conflict in Eastern Europe.

This week, Russia threatened to deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles if Sweden and Finland join NATO. The comment came from the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev.

This happened just a day after US President Joe Biden announced that America would provide Kiev with additional firepower, including heavy artillery, worth $800 million.

If the situation in Ukraine continues to heat up, gold may come close to $2,000. However, traders should be prepared for the opposite situation.

The settlement of the conflict in Eastern Europe or the reduction of inflationary risks may lead to a significant drop in the value of the precious metal – up to $1,900.

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Bitcoin (BTC) will not fall below $24,500

Bitcoin is declining for the second week in a row under the influence of the negative dynamics of the stock market. The main decline in BTC last week occurred on Monday against the backdrop of a noticeable drawdown in US stock indices.

The leaders of the world's largest crypto exchanges, interviewed by CNBC, said that they have recently noticed signs of a "crypto thaw", expressed in a changing attitude towards cryptocurrencies from governments.

The Central Bank of Portugal granted the bank the country's first license to work with crypto assets. Bison Bank has become the first bank in Portugal to offer custody and trading services for cryptocurrencies for large clients.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said recently that he intends to buy Twitter. Cardano founder Hoskinson suggested that Musk join forces to create a decentralized social network if Twitter refuses the deal.

The 12th DOGE cryptocurrency will become the most used cryptocurrency for online payments, said Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev. However, to do this, developers must increase the speed of transaction processing.

The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation finalized the draft law on mining and circulation of digital assets. The government of the Russian Federation submitted to the State Duma a draft law on the taxation of digital assets by three types of taxes.

The creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model PlanB believes that bitcoin will no longer fall to $24,500. His optimism regarding the asset remains unchanged. According to PlanB, BTC could reach $100,000 by the end of the year.

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US stock market opens this week with decline​​​​​​​

In the session on Monday, US stock indices dropped on the back of a record rise in the yield of the 10-year Treasury note.

As a result, all three major indices – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite – sank by 0.1%, having settled at 34,411.69, 4,391.69, and 13,332.36 respectively.

The major outsiders among the DJIA companies were the securities of Walt Disney Co. (-2.1%), Honeywell International Inc. (-1.6%), and Home Depot Inc. (-1.4%). The best performers were Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (+2.7%) and Intel Corp. (+2.1%).

Bank of America Corp's shares rose by 3.4% on Monday. In the first quarter of the financial year, the bank's net profit fell by 12%. Despite this, the final earnings report exceeded analysts' expectations as the total revenue increased by 2%.

The Bank of New York Mellon securities dropped in value by 2.3% as the company's report showed a decline in profit for the first quarter. At the same time, earnings per share turned out to be higher than market forecasts.

Shares of the Chinese taxi aggregator Didi Global Inc. plunged by 18.5% yesterday after the company reported a 12.7% drop in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021.

The share price of Natus Medical Inc., a developer, manufacturer, and supplier of screening devices, surged by 29%. As was reported earlier, Natus Medical is being acquired by investment company ArchiMed for $1.2 billion.

The value of Southwest Gas Holdings Inc. went up by 5.7% following the reports that the company is considering various scenarios for its future development, including a possible sale.

On Monday, the price of US government bonds continued to decline, while the yield of the 10-year Treasury bills increased by 4 basis points and soared to 2.861%. This was the highest closing rate since the end of 2018. So, the bond yield has gained more than half a percentage point since early April.

As a rule, a rise in US Treasury yield puts pressure on risk assets. This rule is especially evident in the case of tech stocks and consumer cyclical companies.

This week, markets will closely watch the steps of the US Federal Reserve who intends to increase the interest rate in the near future. The regulator is trying to cap running inflation and save the US economy from significant damage.

At the same time, investors believe that measures taken by the Fed are not enough to tackle inflation. They hope that at its next meetings in May and June, the US central bank will increase the benchmark rate by 0.5 percentage points. Last month, the Fed raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.25% -0.5%.

Recently, analysts at one of the world's largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., have warned that there is a 35% chance of a recession in the US in the next two years. Therefore, the US Federal Reserve should tighten its monetary policy to the extent where it will help reduce job openings without sharply rising unemployment.

Goldman Sachs notes that achieving a so-called "soft landing" may be tough because historically the gap between jobs and the labor force has narrowed significantly only during recessions.

In addition, market participants will closely monitor the financial reports of the country's leading corporations. Such popular investor choices as Netflix, Tesla, Johnson & Johnson, Snap, Twitter, and United Airlines will reveal their earnings reports this week.

The financial results of the US corporate giants will show how successfully these companies are coping with the permanently rising inflation.

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USD/JPY: dollar at its 20-year high versus Japanese yen

Pressure on the yen has returned. On Wednesday morning, USD bulls pushed the pair to the psychological level of 130.

The greenback is getting stronger versus the Japanese yen amid the difference in the monetary policies of their central banks as well as strong divergence between Japanese and US bond yields.

Earlier today, the dollar surged to its 20-year high against the yen. Eventually, USD/JPY skyrocketed to 129.43 and then bounced to 128.615.analytics625fb5aacbbf4.jpg

The dollar swelled on hawkish comments by a Fed official, hinting at even more aggressive moves by the US regulator.

The ongoing lockdown in China aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19 is believed to only make things worse when it comes to global supply chains. Against such a backdrop, inflation will accelerate and the Fed will have to resort to emergency measures to tame it.

In this light, the US Treasury yield has extended the rally. During the Asian session, yields hit the high of 2.981% that was previously recorded in December 2018.

Unlike its American counterpart, the Bank of Japan still sticks to its dovish monetary policy stance. On Wednesday, the regulator offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year bonds at 0.25% to defend the yield target.

The Bank of Japan is committed to maintaining yields at around zero percent, which is the main driver for USD/JPY. The pair is now on track for its second monthly rally in a row. USD/JPY grew by 5.8% in March and advanced by more than 5% in April.

Geopolitical uncertainty and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are playing on the side of the greenback with demand for the safe haven being on the rise.

Earlier today, USDX increased to 101.01 and then fell to 100.76 versus the basket of 6 major currencies.

The greenback has received additional support from the dovish People's Bank of China. On Wednesday, the Chinese central bank announced it would maintain its benchmark interest rates for corporate and household loans unchanged. In this light, the Chinese yuan dropped against the dollar to its October 2021 low of 6.4115.

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