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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 27, 2021

On Friday, the British pound tried to break above the resistance of the MACD indicator line (the line was pierced by the upper shadow), but under general market pressure it was forced to leave this venture until more favorable circumstances. In case of a positive development of events, with the breakthrough of the MACD line (1.3722), the 1.3888 target will open - the nearest embedded line of the rising price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is still in the downward trend zone, therefore, the observed rise in prices during the Asian session does not mean anything yet, especially since there has been a falling gap since the opening of the market.

Marlin stayed in the growth zone on the four-hour chart, the price is trying to rise above the balance indicator line. This is the first positive sign. To confirm it, the price needs to overcome the resistance of the MACD line in the price area of 1.3745.

Forecast for USD/JPY on September 27, 2021

Over the past three days, the USD/JPY pair has shown strong and confident growth when the price overcame the target level of 110.65. To some extent, this growth was unexpected, but it does not mean that now the market is returning to the strengthening of the dollar, to reaching 111.39 and 112.22.

We estimate the reversal of the pair from the reached level with a further decline to the MACD line to the area of 109.65 with a probability of 70%; confusion in the stock markets, the general tendency for the dollar to weaken in other currency pairs may implement a downward trend scenario for USD/JPY. The Marlin Oscillator is giving an early reversal signal.

The price is trying to return below the target level of 110.65 on the H4 chart, the Marlin Oscillator is sharply turning down from the overbought zone. We are waiting for the development of events.

But on the daily scale, the exit above the MACD line will occur earlier (1.3722), and in order not to happen that the opening of a position will happen on a false breakout of resistance on the daily scale, it is advisable to open a position after a reinforcing signal on H4.

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European equity markets closed positive

Olaf Scholz, candidate for the chancellor from the victorious Social Democratic Party (SPD), expressed the hope that the new German government will be formed before Christmas. "We will try to form a government with greens and the Free Democratic Party," he said.

According to the results of the 2017 elections, it took the government 172 days to form a "grand" coalition of the CDU / CSU and the SPD. Elections were held in September, and the coalition agreement was signed on March 12, 2018. Scholz promised that in the case of a government under his leadership, this will not happen.

The British FTSE 100 and the French CAC 40 increased by 0.2%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX 35 added 0.6% and 1.5%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 by the end of trading fell by 0.2% and amounted to 462.42 points.

In Spain, the leaders of growth were the shares of banks, in particular, UniCredit (+ 5%) and IntesaSanpaol, as well as oil producers Tenaris (+ 3.4%), Eni (+ 2.3%) and Saipem (+ 1.7%) ).

Producer prices in Spain in August increased by 18% compared to last year, according to the statistics of the country. Growth rates were at their highest since May 1980. In July, the figure rose by 15.6% in annual terms.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that inflation could exceed the ECB's forecasts, but there is little sign of that so far.

Due to the shortage of natural gas supplies in Europe, oil prices are rising, which pushes energy stocks up. BP rose 3.5%, Royal Dutch Shell rose 4.5%, Italian ENI rose 2.3%.

Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc shares jumped 11.3%. The British engineering holding announced the sale of the Spanish aircraft engine manufacturer ITP Aero to a consortium of investors led by investment company Bain Capital Private Equity for 1.7 billion euros. In addition, Rolls-Royce has signed a 30-year contract with the US Air Force.

The value of the German pet store chain Zooplus rose 4.3% after the Swedish private investment company EQT AB made an offer to buy it for 3.36 billion euros.

Swedish office rental IWG rose 4.4% on news that the company is considering dividing and listing one of its New York divisions through a merger with specialized mergers and acquisitions (SPAC).

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 29, 2021

September 29 economic calendar:

Today, the UK's lending market data will be released. And although the number of approved mortgage loans should be reduced from 75.15 thousand to 73.00 thousand, the volume of mortgage lending may increase by 0.5 billion pounds. However, such results will cancel each other out.

Therefore, the fate of the pound will be determined by consumer lending, the volume of which should be reduced by 0.75 billion pounds. Consequently, consumer activity is declining. Nevertheless, it is not the driver of economic growth. It can be seen that the prospects for the pound do not look the best.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on September 29:

The US dollar strengthened again since the opening of the European session, as a result of which the quote managed to break through the local low (1.1664) of August 20. A confirmation signal about the prolongation of the downward cycle from the beginning of June should arrive when the price is kept below the level of 1.1660 for an H4 period. In this case, there is a chance to further decline towards the level of 1.1600.

An alternative scenario will arise if the quote still fails to stay below the level of 1.1660, which will lead to a natural price rebound.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on September 29:

The oversold pound does not stop greedy speculators who continue to work on the decline. The quote is rapidly declining, where there is already an attempt to keep the price below the level of 1.3500. If the market maintains the set pace, we should not rule out a decline towards the 1.3450 area. As a result, the oversold status of the British currency will reach the highest level, which will lead to a technical correction.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on September 30

Pound continued the collapse that began a few days ago due to the inability of UK authorities to quickly deal with the fuel crisis that erupted across the country over the weekend. Looking at the chart, there was a single test of 1.3536 that occurred during the time that the MACD line was moving down from zero. It formed a signal to sell in the market, which provoked a 50-pip decline to 1.3487. Obviously, reports on lending and aggregate of the M4 money supply did not help pound in any way, as did the speech of Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey. Expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates later this year also dissipated amid multiple problems in the country.

Today, data on UK GDP may shake the markets, provided that the figure exceeds expectations. Then, in the afternoon, there will be speeches from Fed representatives and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, followed by reports on jobless claims. The data, however, is unlikely to harm dollar even amid poor performance.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3467 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the level of 1.3529 (thicker green line on the chart). However, there is little chance of a price increase, given the steep downward move yesterday. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3430, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3467 and 1.3529.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3430 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the level of 1.3384. Pressure is likely to continue ahead of the vote on the US national debt ceiling, which is scheduled for today in the Senate. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

The pair could also be sold at 1.3467, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3430 and 1.3384.

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Gold comes under pressure from stronger US dollar

The yellow metal has been trading with losses lately. Its recent steep gains have been trimmed, and new victories are not in sight. However, experts of the precious metals market are optimistic about the long-term future of Gold

The precious metal closed September with a 3.4% decline. According to analysts, this is the first significant drop in the value of gold since June this year. Its attempts to gain momentum are unsuccessful, although it does not give up. As of October 1, the XAU/USD pair is trading at $1,752.22, showing a slight upward trend. At the same time, the price of the COMEX gold futures for December delivery traded on the New York Stock Exchange fell by 0.25% to $1,725.75 per troy ounce.

Experts consider the stronger US currency to be an obstacle to an increase in the precious metal. The greenback has grown steadily over the past several trading sessions, thus taking the lead. This hindered the growth of gold, in which investors preferred to invest in the third quarter of 2021. Notably, during that period, market participants expressed concerns about the spread of the new Delta COVID-19 variant. Against this background, the demand for defensive assets increased sharply, primarily for the yellow metal. However, at the end of the summer, the dynamics of the asset became sluggish. In July, gold added 2.3%. In August, the precious metal rose by 0.3%. In September, it dropped by 3.4%. According to analysts, the September decline was the first since the beginning of this summer. As a result, gold lost 0.8% in the third quarter of 2021. Since the beginning of this year, it has fallen by more than 7.8%.

The key factor determining the dynamics of the precious metal in September is still the US dollar's rate. In early autumn, the greenback was trading under pressure from expectations of further changes in the Fed's monetary policy. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the regulator would probably phase out its stimulus programs, while some of his comments were hawkish in nature. The fact that the Fed was close to tapering its support measures supported the US dollar, experts emphasize.

The current high rate of the US currency lowered the demand for the precious metal among investors. At the same time, the situation in the precious metals market sometimes changed dramatically. Earlier, the yellow metal showed an inverse correlation with the greenback. However, in the current year and in late 2020, there were times when the dynamics of these assets were synchronized. Lately, experts have recorded an inverse correlation when the stronger greenback exerted pressure on gold.

The short-term outlook for the precious metal is rather pessimistic. Analysts believe that gold has lost its directional vector, so the US dollar is in the focus of market participants. According to Michael Langford, executive director at corporate advisory and consultancy firm AirGuide, greenback is now the best defense against most risks, unlike gold. In the medium term, the precious metal may gain momentum amid weak US macroeconomic statistics or the debt problems of China's Evergrande. As for the long term, these factors will hardly support gold.

According to DailyFX currency strategist Ilya Spivak, only the long-term outlook for the price of the yellow metal is optimistic. The recent simultaneous drop in gold and stocks indicates that the precious metal cannot save from losses in risky assets, Spivak believes. Analysts note that the foreseeable future of gold is rather dull, since the odds of gaining strong bullish momentum are pretty slim.

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European stock indices fell on the basis of trading on Friday

Investors analyzed statistics that indicate accelerating inflation and a slowdown in economic recovery from the effects of COVID-19. In addition, they are under pressure from the ongoing energy crisis in China, which could lead to even greater problems in global supply chains, especially ahead of New Years and Christmas holidays, when the demand for goods traditionally increases.

In the eurozone, inflation in September accelerated to 3.4%, the highest since 2008, up from 3% a month earlier, preliminary data from the Statistical Office of the European Union show. Experts on average expected an acceleration in the growth rate of consumer prices in September to 3.3%.

The growth rate of retail sales in Germany in August fell short of analysts' expectations. The indicator increased by 1.1% from the previous month, according to data from the country's Federal Statistical Agency (Destatis). The economist had on average expected growth of 1.5%.

The September purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in the eurozone fell to its lowest level since February at 58.6, final data from IHS Markit showed. In the month before last, the indicator was at the level of 61.4 points.

In Germany, the industrial PMI was revised to 58.4 points from 58.5 points previously announced by IHS Markit. In August, the indicator was 62.6 points. In the UK, the indicator fell to 57.1 points from 60.3 in August. However, IHS experts previously estimated the country's September PMI at 56.3 points. The French manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 55 points last month from 57.5 points, the Italian index fell to 59.7 from 60.9 points. The Spanish PMI fell to 58.1 points from 59.5 in August.

In general, the decline in manufacturing activity in European countries was caused by problems in global supply chains and, as a result, an increase in purchase prices, according to the HIS report.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.42% and amounted to 452.9 points.

The British FTSE 100 dropped 0.8%, the French CAC 40 fell 0.04%, and the Italian FTSE MIB dropped 0.3%. The German DAX has decreased by 0.7%, since the beginning of the week the indicator has lost more than 3%, that is, the maximum since January 25. At the same time, the Spanish IBEX 35 index grew by 0.04%.

UK sporting goods retailer JD Sports slumped 1.3% after it was reported that the UK regulator had begun investigating possible antitrust violations in the country as part of its partnership with Leicester City F.C. football club.

The market capitalization of the British beverage maker Diageo PLC declined 2%. The company will provide $ 500 million to boost production of tequila in Mexico.

The value of Deutsche Post AG fell by almost 5%. DHL Express's logistics division plans to increase shipping rates for US customers by an average of 5.9% starting January 1.

Oil and gas BP PLC fell 0.7%. The company announced a day earlier that, as part of the investment round, it will allocate $ 13 million to the ****** startup-developer of the service for electric car rental and charging stations BluSmart.

Growth leaders in the Stoxx 600 include French electricity and gas supplier Electricite de France S.A., which gained almost 6% after French Prime Minister Jean Castex said potential electricity price increases in February would be capped at 4%.

German automaker Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) AG gained 1.3%. The company has improved its forecast for a number of financial indicators for 2021, citing the fact that the rise in car prices will offset the negative impact of the global chip shortage.

Daimler AG's value increased by 0.9%. The shareholders of the German automotive concern have approved the spin-off of the Daimler Truck division into an independent company with a separate listing. The remainder of Daimler AG, which will exclusively produce luxury and premium passenger cars and minivans, will be renamed Mercedes-Benz Group AG from February 2022.

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GBP/USD pair is looking for a favorable buy pattern

The GBP/USD pair is in the phase of forming an upward momentum unlike the EUR/USD pair. So, only a strong impulse decline at today's European session can disrupt this structure.

If the quotes do not decline, then the upward movement will continue in the area of the Weekly Control Zone of 1/4 1.3561-1.3553. The upward trend is a priority. The WCZ of 1.3789-1.3755 remains the upward target. Trading based on this pattern guarantees a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. It is important to understand that there is a 30% probability to completely implement the upward movement this week, so it is necessary to be prepared to transfer purchases through the weekend.

The probability of selling profitably from the current levels is below 30%, so it is better not to consider short positions. One should focus their attention on finding a pattern to buy. The probability of updating yesterday's high is 80%.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 7

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

Euro bears went over their heads yesterday and pushed EUR/USD to a new monthly low. However, the chart clearly shows that after the fall during the Asian session, the MACD line was still far from zero, so sellers did not have the opportunity to take more positions. Fortunately, buyers also could not open positions because they were unprofitable.

It was the disappointing data from the Euro area that pushed the pair down yesterday. Then, in the afternoon, the price plunged deeper amid strong US statistics that supported dollar.

There is a huge chance that the pair will drop lower today because the upcoming ECB minutes may not be in favor of euro. Aside from that, in the afternoon, there will be weekly data on the US labor market and report on the volume of consumer lending, although it will not have that much impact as many investors anticipate the US Department of Labor report tomorrow.

For long positions:
Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1565 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1599. There is little chance that price will increase sharply today. However, there may be a small upward correction during the publication of the ECB minutes.

In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1548, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1565 and 1.1599.

For short positions:
Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1548 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1510. Pressure is likely to continue because of the political risks in the US and sharp rise in EU inflationary pressures. Strong US statistics will also support dollar.

But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1595, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1548 and 1.1510.

Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair

Wednesday's market signals were very profitable. The first one, which was to sell, coincided with the time that the MACD line was going down from zero. This allowed GBP / USD to decline by 50 pips. The signal to buy that followed provoked a 30-pip increase in the pair.

Disappointing data on the UK construction sector pushed pound down yesterday. In addition, only a few were willing to buy GBP / USD at weekly highs, so there were hardly any long positions in the market. Then, strong ADP report on the US private sector employment further limited the upside potential of the pair in the afternoon.

There are no important UK reports today so pound will have a chance to return to weekly highs. In the afternoon, weekly data on the US labor market will be released, as well as a report on the volume of consumer lending. Most likely, these reports will not have a serious impact on the market, as many investors anticipate the US Department of Labor report tomorrow.

For long positions:
Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3593 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3629 (thicker green line on the chart). Price may climb up since there are no UK statistics scheduled to be released today.

But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3574, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3593 and 1.3629.

For short positions:
Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3574 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3535. Pressure will return if buyers remain inactive in the market and if the US reports strong labor market data.

But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. The pair could also be sold at 1.3593, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3574 and 1.3535.

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Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY on October 8

EUR/USD

Analysis:
The main pair of the European currency market has been dominated by an upward trend since March last year. The price has been adjusted downwards for the entire current year. Moreover, the wave structure looks complete. Quotes are at the lower border of a strong potential reversal zone. There are no reversal signals yet.

Forecast:
The general flat nature of price fluctuations is expected today. A short-term depreciation of the exchange rate is possible in the next session, no further than the support zone. By the end of the day, the probability of price growth increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 1.1600/1.1530

Support:
- 1.1520/1.1490

Recommendations:
The upcoming rise goes against the trend of movement, so buying the euro today may be risky. It is better to split the lot in them. It is optimal to refrain from entering the pair's market until the price pullback is completed, tracking the signals for the sale of the instrument.

USD/JPY

Analysis:
The price on the daily TF chart of the Japanese yen has been forming a downward correction wave since March of this year. By the current day, it looks like a shifting plane. Its structure lacks the final part. The price is approaching the lower boundary of the resistance zone of the W1 scale.

Forecast:
On the next day, the price of the pair is expected to move with an upward vector. Settlement zones indicate the boundaries of the price corridor. By the end of the day, the probability of a change of course and the beginning of a decline increases.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:
- 112.50/112.80

Support:
- 111.60/111.30

Recommendations:
Trading the Japanese yen today can be safe only within the intraday, a fractional lot. Until clear reversal signals appear in the area of the resistance zone, sales are not recommended.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on October 11

GBP/USD rallied, thanks to the buy signal that coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. Such allowed bullish traders to take long positions, provoking a 60-pip increase in the pair. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

It was the latest Bank of England minutes that pushed pound up, coupled with weak data on the US labor market.

Today, a report on UK GDP will be published, which may push pound above local highs. But by afternoon, the market will turn calm amid a US holiday. Many markets will close by then.

For long positions:

Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3658 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3727 (thicker green line on the chart). Price may rise in the morning as there are no UK statistics scheduled for release today. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.3607, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3658 and 1.3727.

For short positions:

Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3607 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3535. But there is little chance that the price will decline, especially since the Bank of England seems to be set on raising interest rates as soon as possible. Nevertheless, before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

The pair could also be sold at 1.3658, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3607 and 1.3535.

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US indicators close lower

On Monday, US indicators closed the trading session with a decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.72%, the S&P 500 was down 0.69% and the NASDAQ Composite dipped 0.64%.

A number of factors contributed to the fall in US indicators. First, investors are concerned about rising oil prices. November WTI crude futures rose 1.5% to $80.52 a barrel and December Brent crude was up to $83.65 a barrel. Oil prices have been boosted by a worldwide gas shortage. In turn, this has benefited oil and gas companies' share prices.

Another reason for traders' concern is the strong rise in inflation combined with low economic growth. Inflation is rising at a higher rate than expected due to supply problems, lack of human resources, and rapidly increasing energy costs. At the same time, the economic recovery has not been as rapid as expected. The Goldman Sachs has changed its GDP growth forecasts for the final quarter of this year due to lower consumer spending and impending cuts in government economic assistance measures.

In addition, corporate reports will be released soon and may clarify how companies are coping with price increases. Indicators of expected income will show how top corporate executives assess the future growth and increase in consumer spending. Delta Air Lines, Domino's Pizza, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and JPMorgan Chase will release their reports as early as this week.

Experts are optimistic because of the significant amount of savings that citizens managed to accumulate during the pandemic, as it is not known how the pandemic will unfold during the winter.

Materials stocks were the best performing sector on the day, underpinned by a 3.2% jump in Freeport-McMoran Copper&Gold Inc as copper prices continued to climb.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan fell 2.1% and Amazon dropped 1.3%. Visa was down 2.2% and Mastercard also fell 2.2% among the biggest drags on the S&P 500. The shares of Southwest Airlines Co. dropped 4.2% as the company canceled a third of its flights.

Analysts expect a 29.6% year-on-year increase in profit for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, according to experts' forecasts. It should be noted that this indicator doubled in the second quarter.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on October 13, 2021

The euro fell as expected on Tuesday, but at the same time strengthened the technical prerequisites for an upward reversal - this is the formation of a double convergence of the price with the Marlin Oscillator and a wedge-shaped price structure, from which, according to statistics, there will be a 70% exit to the upside. Such a signal is when the price breaks through the resistance of 1.1570, from which the price turned down yesterday. The growth target is the MACD line around 1.1678.

On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to break above the MACD line. The same intention - to move into the growth zone, is shown by the Marlin Oscillator. Exit of the price above 1.1570 will automatically mean that the price will exit above the balance line (red indicator), which will fulfill all the technical conditions for the euro to rise in the short term, that is, until the first specified target (1.1678).

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US shares mixed at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.00%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones fell 0.00%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.30% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.73%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index at the end of today's trading were the shares of Salesforce.com Inc, which rose in price by 5.41 points (1.94%), to close at around 284.41. Nike Inc rose 1.92% or 2.95 points to end at 156.30. Microsoft Corporation rose 1.17% or 3.43 points to close at 296.31.

The biggest losers were American Express Company, which fell 3.54% or 6.19 points to end the session at 168.72. JPMorgan Chase & Co is up 2.64% or 4.36 points to end at 161.00, while Dow Inc is down 1.44% or 0.83 points to 56. , 91.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc, which rose in price by 3.92% to the level of 109.16, BlackRock Inc, which gained 3.78%, to close at 867.81, and also Discovery Inc Class A shares, which rose 3.74% to end at 25.50.

The biggest losers were Delta Air Lines Inc, which fell 5.76% to close at 41.03. Align Technology Inc shed 4.97% to trade at 596.22. United Airlines Holdings Inc was down 3.60% to 47.88.

Jasper Therapeutics Inc, which gained 105.13% to 14.790, Waitr Holdings Inc, which gained 58.45% to close at 1.2700, and Sono-Tek Corp, which were up 44.22% to end at 6.4900.

The biggest losers were Regulus Therapeutics Inc, which fell 29.88% to close at 0.5326. Shares of Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp shed 29.37% to end the session at 2.910. DatChat Inc was down 26.07% to 11.10.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1982) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (1198), while the quotes of 153 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2055 companies rose in price, 1556 declined, and 174 remained at the level of the previous close.

Sono-Tek Corp rose to an all-time high, up 44.22%, at 1.9900 points, to close at 6.4900.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 6.10% to trade at 18.64.

WTI crude oil futures for November delivery fell 0.10%, or 0.08, to $ 80.56 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for December delivery fell 0.17% or 0.14 to trade at $ 83.28 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD rose 0.59% to hit 1.1595, while USD / JPY fell 0.28% to hit 113.29.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.52% at 94.028.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 15, 2021

On Wednesday, the pound tried to shift the market balance towards long positions by going above the balance indicator line, but the bears made it clear that it was too early to do this. In continuing the market reaction, the price may move lower to the support of the MACD line (1.3640), after which it will continue to rise. The Marlin Oscillator is in the zone of positive values, the general trend is increasing.

On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the balance line, the Marlin Oscillator is in the growth zone. The price reserve above the balance line and the signal line of the oscillator above the zero line is enough to continue a moderate correction to 1.3640.

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 15, 2021

Yesterday, the euro closed the day with a symbolic growth of 1 point, the peak growth was 30 points, so yesterday can be considered corrective. US retail sales data for September are due tonight, forecast at -0.3%. In the euro area, an increase in the trade balance for August is expected from 13.4 billion euros to 15.3 billion. The euro will likely rise. The growth target is the MACD line in the 1.1668 area.

On the four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator was discharged from the overbought zone yesterday, now it is ready to continue rising. The correction developed above the balance indicator line, which means that investors are still interested in buying.

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Most Asian stock markets are trading in the red

The volume of GDP in July-September increased by 4.9% compared with the same period last year, which was the weakest rise in a year, according to data from the State Statistical Office of the PRC. Many experts predicted a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy in the third quarter, but it turned out to be more significant than expected. The consensus forecast of experts interviewed by The Wall Street Journal envisaged an increase in China's GDP by 5.1%.

The volume of industrial production in the PRC in September increased by 3.1% in annual terms after rising by 5.3% a month earlier. Analysts on average had forecast an increase of 4.5%. September growth was the weakest since July 2020.

Nonetheless, retail sales in the country last month beat analysts' forecasts and increased 4.4% compared to the same month in 2020. Experts surveyed by Trading Economics, on average, expected retail sales growth to accelerate to 3.3% last month from 2.5% in August.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng index by 8:30 GMT + 3 fell by 0.5%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite fell by 0.4%.

Tech company values fall: Meituan declines 2.9%, Tencent Holdings Ltd. dropped 1.4%, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. fell by 1%.

At the same time, oil and gas stocks traded in positive territory in Hong Kong on Monday amid the continuing rise in oil prices, CNOOC Ltd. (+1.5), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (+ 1.4%), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (+1.3).

Japanese Nikkei 225 at 8:40 GMT + 3 decreased by 0.2%.

Technological Panasonic Corp. shares declined on the Japanese stock exchange. (-0.6%) and Sony Group Corp. (-1.7%), but shares of automakers Nissan Motor Co. are getting more expensive. Ltd. (+ 0.5%) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (+ 1.6%), Toyota Motor Corp (T: 7203). (+ 2.2%).

South Korean indicator Kospi dropped 0.2% by 8:45 GMT + 3.

Chip manufacturers SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics are down 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively; the country's largest automakers Kia Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd. grow by 0.5%.

Australia's S & P / ASX 200 adds 0.3%.

Mining Shares Rising: Rio Tinto Ltd. - by 2%, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. - by 1%, BHP Group Ltd. - by 0.9%.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 19, 2021

October 19 economic calendar:

Today, American data on the real estate market is expected to be published, where it is predicted that the construction of new homes, as well as the number of construction permits issued, will decrease in September. This is not the best signal for the US real estate market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on October 19:

There was a high demand for long positions in the euro during the start of the Asian session. This led to an update of the local high (1.1640) of October 4. It should be noted that holding the price above the level of 1.1660 will most likely lead to a subsequent growth towards the level of 1.1700.

Otherwise, the quote will return to the range of 1.1620.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 19:

It can be assumed that the subsequent resistance level is around 1.3800/1.3830. It is possible to reduce the volume of long positions within these levels, which will lead to another attempt to end the correction.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on October 20

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far away from zero. Shortly after that a signal to sell appeared, and this time it provoked a large drop in the pair because traders took short positions. Then, another sell signal emerged, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far from zero. Afterwards, a buy signal appeared and it coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area.

Euro rallied yesterday because of the statements from ECB members Frank Elderson and Fabio Panetta. But the situation turned around in the afternoon as Fed members Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman addressed US inflation, which attracted investor interest on dollar.

Today, a lot of macro statistics are scheduled to come out, and these are EU data on CPI and ECB balance of payments, which, if exceeded expectations, could provoke another rally in EUR / USD. Another speech from ECB member Frank Elderson will also commence, followed by statements from Fed members Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic and Randal Quarles.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1656 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1696. Price will increase if EU inflation data comes out strong.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1635, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1656 and 1.1696.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1635 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1594. Pressure may return if there are weak EU statistics and if the Fed makes statements that are in favor of dollar.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1656, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1635 and 1.1594.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 21, 2021

The yen has been trading at large daily volumes since the beginning of the week, however, the quotes have been changing all this time in narrow ranges at the technical level of 114.10. The Marlin Oscillator has been moving down since the beginning of the week. Taken together, this means that big players are closing positions and the decline to the first support at 113.12. Consolidation below the level may strengthen the downward correction. A full reversal will take place after the price consolidates below the MACD indicator line at 111.40. After the correction to 113.12, the growth may continue to the range of 115.80-116.15. Unless, of course, the stock markets fail. US indices closed mixed yesterday.

On the four-hour scale, the price approached the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator was already in the downtrend zone. Accordingly, if the price settles below the level of 114.10, which coincides with the support of the MACD line, we expect the price to move towards the target at 113.12 - to the embedded monthly-scale price channel line.

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S&P 500 has renewed its all-time high

Investors continue to monitor the third quarter's corporate earnings season, as well as assess the potential impact of the White House's attempts to raise corporate taxes. Already published the results of about 70 companies whose shares are included in the calculation of the S&P 500. Profits in 86% of cases turned out to be better than the consensus.

The index of manufacturing activity in Philadelphia in October fell to 23.8 points compared with 30.7 points a month earlier. Experts expected a less significant drop in the indicator calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, that is, up to 25 points. A negative value of the index indicates a weakening of activity in the manufacturing sector of the region, a positive value indicates an increase.

The index of leading economic indicators in the United States in September rose by only 0.2%, according to the research organization Conference Board, which calculates this indicator. In August, the rise was 0.8%. The Conference Board index shows the expected development of the country's economy in the next 3-6 months. It is calculated on the basis of ten key economic indicators, seven of which are known even before the publication of the indicator.

US existing home sales rose 7% in September to 6.29 million homes on an annualized basis, the highest since January, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in a report. Experts surveyed by Trading Economics predicted an average increase of 3.6%.

Meanwhile, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has updated the minimum since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of Americans applying for benefits for the first time fell by 6,000 last week to 290,000, according to a report by the US Department of Labor. At the same time, analysts on average expected an increase to 300 thousand.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday decreased by 6.26 points (0.02%) - to 35603.08 points.

Meanwhile, the value of Standard & Poor's 500 increased over the day by 13.59 points (0.3%), amounting to 4549.78 points.

Nasdaq Composite increased by 94.02 points (0.62%) - up to 15215.7 points.

International Business Machines slightly increased revenue in July-September, but the result was worse than expected. The company's shares fell 9.6% in the trading session, becoming the leader of the decline among the Dow Jones.

Chemical company Dow Inc. achieved a profitable level in the third quarter, with adjusted numbers and revenues above analyst expectations. Nevertheless, its shares lost 1.05% in price.

In addition, among the components of the Dow Jones index, shares of Chevron Corp., American Express Co. fell by 1% or more. and Caterpillar.

Southwest Airlines Co. returned to profitable levels in the third quarter and increased revenue better than expected. However, the airline's shares were down 1.6%.

Telecommunications company AT&T Inc., one of the largest in the country, more than doubled its net profit in the last quarter, but its revenue fell due to the spin-off. Its securities fell 0.6%.

At the same time, the cost of HP Inc. jumped 6.9%. The personal computer and printer company has significantly raised its annual dividend and also improved its profit forecast for the next fiscal year.

Electric vehicle maker Tesla posted record net profit and revenue last quarter. The company's shares gained 3.3%.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on October 25, 2021

The EUR/USD pair's upward movement is an impulse. The upward target remains the Weekly Control Zone of 1.1717-1.1700. It is necessary to fix purchases when testing this zone.

Trading in an upward direction remains a priority. Today, the main plan is to retain purchases. Based on our plan, favorable prices were obtained during last week's second half, that is, when testing the WCZ 1/4 1.1625-1.1621. When retesting the high of the previous week, transferring the position to breakeven is necessary.

A three-day flat can be an excellent support in the future for the re-purchase the euro. It is not profitable to consider the option of selling, since this requires the formation of a "absorption" pattern of the daily level.

It is necessary to consider corrective patterns when trading upward for repeated purchases when exiting the local flat of the last three days.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 26, 2021

As we expected on Monday, the price spent the entire day sideways. The close of the daily candle was white, and the upward sentiment remained. The growth target is 115.80, and the signal level for continued growth to the target is the resistance at 114.45, which stopped the price on October 15, 18 and 21. The Marlin Oscillator is moving horizontally, which keeps the likelihood of a continuation of the downward correction to the support of the price channel line at 113.12 at about 35% - just like yesterday.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator crossed the border into bull territory. The price develops growth under the balance and MACD indicator lines, which creates difficulties for it. The MACD line is located near the signal level of 114.45, respectively, the price transition above the signal level will give the price an accelerated growth. We are waiting for the development of events.

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Gold will confidently reach the $ 3,000 mark in a few months

Gold has been recently rebounding a lot at the level of $ 1,800. However, experts believe that it will not only be able to break out of this narrow range but will also start a confident rally.

On Tuesday, the yellow asset failed to withstand the onslaught of a stronger US dollar and fell below the psychologically important level of $ 1,800, which it broke a day earlier. As a result, the session on the New York Stock Exchange COMEX bullion ended with a decline. Gold plummeted by 0.7%, or $13.40, dropping to $1,793.40.

Meanwhile, silver also changed the route to a downward one. Yesterday, the gray asset sank by 2.1% or 50 cents. It was last seen at the level of $24,088.

The main downward factor for precious metals was the growth of the US currency. On October 26, the dollar index rose 0.2%. The US dollar was supported by new economic statistics.

On Tuesday it became known that the American consumer confidence index rose to 113.8 in October compared to the revised value of 109.8 in September.

The prices for the yellow metal fell on the same day amid investors' profit-taking. Despite the decline in the value of the asset, experts emphasize that an upward trend remains on the gold's daily chart.

Analyst Chintan Karnani believes that bullion has a chance to continue its short-term rally if quotes break through the key level of $ 1,800 again. At this stage, gold has all the prerequisites to do this.

Now, when the whole world is afraid of rising prices again and is on the verge of hyperinflation, the demand for the precious metal is growing noticeably, since gold is traditionally considered one of the best tools for hedging inflationary risks.

Many traders have already realized that central banks are wrong and global inflationary pressure will not be temporary. Analyst David Garofalo predicts that when the majority understands this, gold will move to steady growth.

The expert believes that after this strong aftershock occurs in the precious metals market, the asset will not only break its previous record but also soar much higher than $ 2,000. According to him, the price of bullion can reach the $ 3,000 mark.

Moreover, this will not happen within a few years, as other analysts predicted earlier, but literally in a few months. The rally of gold will be very rapid, D. Garofalo is convinced.

At the same time, his colleagues warn investors about the existing risks. The growth potential of the precious metal may be severely limited by forecasts regarding a more rapid increase in real interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.

Analysts advise traders to monitor any comments from the regulator on the pace of future rate increases. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve, where this issue may be raised casually, will be held on November 2-3.

The central theme of the meeting should be the beginning of a reduction in bond purchases. Statements on this topic can also affect the value of gold. Experts predict that a more rapid curtailment of incentives will lead to a decrease in quotes.

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EUR/USD: US dollar is behind the euro, although it secretly wants to take the lead

The Euro currency rose after the ECB's monetary policy meeting. However, experts believe that this fact has caused a significant blow to the dominance of the US dollar.

As a result of the meeting, the European regulator retained its previous monetary strategy. However, analysts are confident that representatives of the regulator may change the current decision and revise the quantitative easing (QE) programs at the next meeting.

The "dovish" comments of ECB chairman Christine Lagarde helped the euro to rise and bypass its dollar rival in the EUR/USD pair. In particular, the euro was supported by statements about inflation. The regulator expects further growth in the near future and subsequent decline during 2022. According to Lagarde, the eurozone economy continues to recover, although at a slower pace than expected.

The current situation allowed the EUR/USD pair to break through the upper limit of the current range and briefly rise to 1.1700. On Thursday, the bullish mood remained for this instrument, when it managed to reach a new monthly high of 1.1686. On the morning of Friday, the pair slightly lost its position, trading near the level of 1.1670. It was supported by the collapse of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market.

The US currency collapsed to its lowest level in a month on the background of the triumphant euro. Experts emphasize that this decline occurred at the maximum pace over the past two weeks. The disappointing data on US GDP also worsened the situation. According to the US Department of Commerce, this figure increased by 2% in the third quarter of 2021, which turned out to be worse than forecasts. It can be recalled that analysts expected GDP to rise by 2.6%. However, the spread of the COVID-19 delta strain and supply disruptions have made their own adjustments.

This year, the American economy showed higher growth rates, which contributed to the overestimated expectations of specialists. In the first quarter of 2021, US GDP increased by 6.3% per annum, and in the second quarter, it reached a record 6.7%. However, the indicators of the third quarter brought the markets below, disappointing with their statistics.

According to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, supply disruptions will continue in the United States until the middle of next year. This problem, along with the shortage of goods, will negatively affect further production in the country. In such a situation, experts warn that consumer spending will sharply decrease, and inflation rates will remain high.

An additional factor that pressures the US dollar is the expectation of a reduction in the Fed's stimulus programs. Many experts believe that the regulator will begin to cut incentives starting next month and it will raise the interest rate in 2022. The implementation of such a scenario will allow the EUR/USD pair to test the level of 1.1680 and head to new peaks. According to currency strategists at TD Securities, extrapolating the strength of the euro may create problems in the EUR/USD pair before the Fed meeting, at which a reduction in incentives will be announced.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 2, 2021

The USD/JPY pair's growth target is the 115.80-116.15 range. The USD/JPY pair grew by 5 points on Monday, breaking the signal level of 114.32 with the upper shadow of the daily candle.

It may seem that in case of a failed price transition above the signal level with a decreasing Marlin Oscillator, the price will continue to fall, but here another reading of the oscillator is connected: its decline, marked with a red line, is a correction from the growth marked with a thick azure line. Marlin has not yet left the territory of the positive trend, with a high degree of probability the oscillator may turn upwards from the current levels. Also, the 114.32 signal level can be determined by mistake, because yesterday the price reversed from earlier levels - from the peaks on October 15 and 18. To break the upward trend, the price needs to do a very strong thing - to overcome the support of the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe near the price of 113.15.

The price convergence with the oscillator continues to develop on the four-hour chart. Under favorable circumstances, the Marlin reversal from the forming support can occur from the current levels. It will become an assertive growth after the price has overcome yesterday's high of 114.46. The growth target is the 115.80-116.15 range. The benchmark for this target is the August 2015 low and the January 2015 low.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 2, 2021

On Monday, the euro corrected Friday's fall by 47 points to move above the target level of 1.1572. But this does not cancel the downward trend from October 29th – a reverse return of the price under 1.1572 will strengthen the price's desire for the previously noted target of 1.1448.

The Marlin Oscillator is in a positive trend zone, its rate of change after Friday's fall in the euro has slowed down. This creates preconditions for the formation of its convergence with the price when it drops to the target level of 1.1448. This is the main scenario. It can be broken with the price settling above the MACD indicator line, above 1.1628. The 1.1750 target will open.

The four-hour chart shows that the price growth took place below the balance indicator line, that is, in line with the general downward trend. The Marlin Oscillator went above the zero line a little yesterday, into the area of the growing trend, but it still cannot strengthen there. After the price settles below 1.1572, we expect the development of a downward trend.

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US stock markets are gushing with records: news from the US supports euphoria

On Tuesday, the leading indicators of the US stock market soared to record highs amid spectacular internal statistics of companies from the United States. The published reports of large enterprises have significantly improved investor sentiment regarding their securities.

Another tangible growth factor for the main indicators of Wall Street was the restless expectation by stock market participants of the results of an important meeting of the US Federal Reserve.

As a result, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite stock indexes were at historical highs for the fourth consecutive session. Thus, the first of them increased by 0.37% to 4630.65 points, and the second – by 0.34% to 15649.60 points.

Meanwhile, the DJIA indicator reported another record closing for the third session in a row, gaining 0.39% and breaking through the 36,000 mark (Tuesday's trading result – 36052.63) points for the first time in history.

The strong reporting of companies from the United States in the third quarter against the backdrop of the recovering economy after the pandemic significantly exceeded the expectations of market participants. Most major manufacturers were able to increase product prices, maintain a steady level of profit margin and take advantage of high demand by increasing their revenue.

Spectacular reports from the largest US manufacturers continue to provide tangible support to the stock market. At the time of writing, about 320 companies have published internal statistics.

According to analysts' forecasts, the profit of the companies that make up the S&P 500 index in the third quarter will increase by 40.2% compared to the same period in 2020.

Shares of the American pharmaceutical giant Pfizer soared by 4.1% after the company announced that it expects sales of the COVID-19 vaccine, created jointly with the German manufacturer BioNTech, to increase to $36 billion. In the third quarter of this year, Pfizer's net profit increased 5.5 times, and revenue - 8.5 times. In addition, the company's analysts have significantly improved the annual forecast.

The stock quotes of the electric car manufacturer Tesla lost 3% on Tuesday. The company plans to recall more than 11,000 electric vehicles. The reason for the recall is an error in the software. Another important downward factor for Tesla securities was a message on Twitter from the company's director, Elon Musk. In his social network account, the entrepreneur announced that the deal with the American company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. for the purchase of 100,000 Tesla electric vehicles remains unsigned.

Shares of ConocoPhillips oil company from the United States sank 2.1%. It is reported that in the third quarter the company returned to profit due to a jump in the cost of hydrocarbons. In addition, the adjusted indicator significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts.

The long-awaited results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System are still in the focus of attention of stock market participants this week. Experts expect that on Wednesday the regulator will approve plans to reduce the $120 billion bond purchase program adopted to support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, traders are waiting for comments from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and the duration of the current surge in inflation.

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In the US, strong data on the labor market spurred the growth of stock indices to new records

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 203.72 points (0.56%) to 36327.95 points. Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 17.47 points (0.37%), that is, to 4697.53 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 31.28 points (0.2%) to 15971.59 points.

Over the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.4%, the S&P 500 rallied 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 3%.

Pfizer Inc. Shares jumped in price by almost 11% by the end of trading. The pharmaceutical company said preliminary results from a trial of a drug it developed to treat COVID-19 showed 89 percent effectiveness. Pfizer plans to request FDA approval for the drug and expects to be able to begin shipping this year.

Merck & Co., another pharmaceutical company that is also developing a drug to treat COVID-19, fell 9.9%. Merck said last month that its drug reduced the risk of severe illness in 50% of cases.

Peloton Interactive Inc. collapsed by 35%. The company lowered its revenue forecast for the current year to $ 4.4-4.8 billion from the previously expected $ 5.4 billion, admitting that it underestimated the impact of the lifting of restrictions in the economy on its business. Peloton's sales forecast for the upcoming holiday season - $ 1.1-1.2 billion - turned out to be worse than the average forecast of experts polled by FactSet at $ 1.49 billion.

The papers of the portable camcorder manufacturer GoPro Inc. jumped 7.9% on the company's strong quarterly earnings. Earnings excluding one-off GoPro factors in the last quarter amounted to $ 0.34 per share, exceeding the consensus forecast of experts at the level of $ 0.2 per share, revenue increased by 13% to $ 317 million with an average market forecast of $ 292 million.

Uber Technologies Inc., which beat market forecasts in the third quarter, gained 4.2%, while Airbnb, which posted a record quarterly performance, gained 13%.

According to FactSet, about 82% of the S&P 500 companies that published their earnings for the past quarter beat earnings that beat analysts' expectations.

The number of jobs in the US economy in October increased by 531 thousand, at a maximum rate in three months, the Department of Labor said. According to the revised data, in September the figure increased by 312 thousand, and not by 194 thousand, as previously reported.

Unemployment in the United States fell to 4.6% in October, the lowest level since March 2020, down from 4.8% in September.

Experts on average expected an increase in the number of jobs in October by 450 thousand and a decrease in unemployment to 4.7%, according to data from Trading Economics.

The situation in the labor market is a key factor in the decisions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) regarding the future level of the base interest rate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a press conference following the November 2-3 meeting of the US Central Bank that the maximum employment in the US economy can be achieved by the second half of 2022.

At the last meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to start curtailing the asset repurchase program. The central bank said it will reduce the volume of asset buybacks in November by $ 15 billion and will continue to cut the program in December.

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USD to climb higher amid possible key rate hike in 2022

Market participants have been expecting the Fed to raise the benchmark rate for several months. However, analysts are concerned about the possible negative impact on the US dollar, although this is a rather unlikely scenario.

Earlier this week, James Bullard, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said that in 2022 the Fed would raise the interest rate at least twice. The regularize is expected to complete the QE tapering in the middle of next year.

These measures will help keep inflation under control, he stressed. "If inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control," Bullard said in an interview. Regarding the possible hike in the key rate three or four times in 2022, Bullard evasively replied that it might occur.

Mr. Bullard believes that the US economy will expand at a fairly rapid pace next year. In 2022, the unemployment rate is projected to decrease as well and inflation will return to the target level. The global supply chain disruptions are the main cause of currently high inflation. These risks are likely to persist throughout next year, he said.

Naturally, uncertainty over the key rate is weighing on the greenback. Bullard's statements about two to four rate hikes may undermine the US dollar's growth. Many analysts note that the Fed is gradually preparing markets for a key rate hike. They are sure that it may happen quite soon. The US currency is trying to hold at its current levels. At the same time, the EUR/USD pair is also making attempts to resume the upward movement. Most of its attempts are successful. On November 8, the greenback slightly dipped to 1.1588, but then recouped its losses. On November 9, the EUR/USD pair reached the level of 1.1604. If the pair breaks above 1.1600, it may test the level of 1.1650.

Currently, the greenback is trading slightly below its annual high. Now, there are rumors that Biden is considering the appointment of a new chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is also bearish for the US dollar. On November 4, the Biden administration discussed the possible appointment of Leil Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, to this post. If so, the US dollar may drop significantly. According to experts, Brainard is likely to stick to an extremely cautious approach to monetary policy tightening.

This week, market participants are awaiting the release of the US inflation report for October on Wednesday. Analysts predict a rise in inflation to 5.8% from 5.4%. If so, the US dollar may regain ground. Now, the US dollar has slightly declined amid inflation expectations. Yet, it may recoup its losses after the publication of inflation data.

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US stock indices finished trading lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average on the basis of trading on Tuesday fell by 112.24 points (0.31%) and amounted to 36319.98 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 fell by 16.45 points (0.35%) - to 4685.25 points.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 95.81 points (0.6%) to 15886.54 points.

Some investors saw the market pullback as a little respite after several days of continuous gains. Strong company reports for the third quarter support the stock market, despite continued investor concerns about rising inflation and supply chain problems.

Statistics released on Tuesday showed a slight increase in the rate of rise in producer prices in October compared to the previous month - to 0.6% from 0.5% in September. The acceleration in growth was largely due to the rise in gasoline prices (6.7%). On an annualized basis, US producer prices jumped at a record 8.6%, as in the previous month.

In addition, the National Federation of Independent Business reported that the small business optimism indicator dropped 0.8 percentage points in October, to 98.2 points, the lowest since March.

General Electric Co. rose 2.7% by the end of trading on Tuesday. The American concern announced that it will split operations into three independent public companies.

Tesla Inc. lost almost 12% in price.

The price of securities of the developer of the online video game platform Roblox Corp. soared by 42%.

Car rental Hertz Global Holdings Inc. plunged 9.8% on its Nasdaq debut.

Boeing shares fell 0.9%.

Cruise operator Royal Caribbean's share price fell 2.5% on news of the imminent resignation of the company's chief executive Richard Fane, who has held the post since 1988.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 11, 2021

The euro fell by 113 points yesterday, which confirmed the variant with the formation of convergence before, as expected, a reversal into medium-term growth. The target of the movement is the 1.1448 level - the high on March 17, 2019. The price may move below the level, for example, to 1.1420, this is the level of the peaks of June 2020 and June 2019.

Of course, the strengthening of the dollar across the market was associated with a strong increase in the CPI in October estimates to 6.2% (forecast 5.8%), but the Federal Reserve needs to get data on the real sector to change its sentiment, and such data as retail sales, growth industrial production, the volume of civil construction will be next week. Investors also need this data, and therefore, after yesterday's rally, they can take a break.

On the four-hour scale, the price settled under the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator has already deeply entered the downtrend zone, so we expect the decline to slow down. We are waiting for the formation of technical reversal signs.

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 11, 2021

The British pound fell by one and a half figures yesterday, reaching the Fibonacci level of 123.6% with the formation of convergence with the Marlin Oscillator. But more precisely, the convergence has not yet formed, only the conditions of its probable formation have been fulfilled, in order to return the price to the initial levels in the area of the Fibonacci level of 100.0%. The price may still continue to decline and reach the next level of 138.2% at the price of 1.3313.

On the four-hour chart, the convergence of the price with the oscillator is also ready to form. This circumstance tilts the probability of a price reversal up from approximately current levels to 60%. But you need to wait at least a day for the market to cool down and give clearer indications of its intentions.

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US stock indices finished trading with multidirectional dynamics

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 158.71 points (0.44%) to 35921.23 points. Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 2.56 points (0.06%), that is, to 4649.27 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 81.58 points (0.52%) and amounted to 15704.28 points.

Tesla Inc. Stock Quote decreased by 0.4%. Tesla CEO Elon Musk this week sold shares in the company for a total of about $ 5 billion. On Monday, he exercised options to buy more than 2 million Tesla shares, which he received as compensation, for a total of $ 2.5 billion. options amounted to about $ 13.4 million.

Lordstown Motors Corp. rose 23.2% after rising more than 20% in additional trading on Wednesday. The electric car maker has struck a deal to sell its plant to Foxconn for $ 230 million.

Twitter Inc. Papers decreased by 0.7%. The company is creating a team that will develop a strategy for the future use of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general within the social network.

Walt Disney Co. decreased by 7.1%. The world's largest entertainment and media company posted weaker-than-expected earnings and revenues in its fiscal fourth quarter and saw a significant slowdown in subscriber growth for its Disney + streaming service.

Beyond Meat shares fell 13.3%. The American manufacturer of plant-based meat substitutes increased its net loss 2.8 times, while its revenue was worse than forecast.

Yesterday, traders' attention was focused on the statistics published the day before, which indicated a significant acceleration of inflation in the US last month.

According to the Department of Labor, consumer prices in the United States in October rose by 6.2% compared with the same month last year - the highest rate in almost 31 years (since November 1990). A month earlier, inflation in the US was 5.4%, and experts expected it to accelerate in October to 5.8%.

The jump in energy prices in the United States last month amounted to 30% in annual terms, gasoline rose in price by 49.6%. The rate of growth in the cost of food, which amounted to 5.3%, was the highest since January 2009.

According to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, inflation remains steadily high, surprising many who expected prices to return to normal more quickly. He also added that it is impossible to close the $ 20 trillion economy and not feel obstacles in the process of opening it, but we hope that supply chain problems will be resolved in the coming months, and inflation will stabilize.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on November 15, 2021

Last week's decline of the EUR/USD pair was a strong impulse that exceeded the limits of the average move. This suggests that there is an 80% probability of continuing the downward impulse.

The current growth of this instrument should be used to find favorable prices to sell the instrument. An important pullback level is the 1.1494 mark. The probability to rise to this mark is 90%. This indicates that the search for a sell pattern should begin only after returning to this level. The determining resistance is the Weekly Control Zone of 1/2 1.1529-1.1521.

All of the above makes the area of 1.1494-1.1529 a supply zone. The upward movement of the EUR/USD pair to these levels will give us an opportunity to sell the instrument at favorable prices.

It is not profitable to make corrective purchases since the probability of updating the monthly low is above 80%. Any resistance level can be decisive. A bearish impulse is a strong movement that will take 3 to 5 days to break.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 15, 2021

The yen looks in the direction of strengthening again. Last Friday, the yen traded in the range of 53 points, and did not dare to go above the signal level of 114.46, which opens the way for the price to the target range of 115.80-116.15.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reverses downward from its own zero line. This means that the price rally in the previous two days was a correction from the decline since October 20th. If the price moves below the support of the price channel at 113.15, it will confirm the price's intention to move further down. The bears' first target at 112.30 is the MACD line.

On the four-hour chart, the price is declining, but is above the indicator lines. A decline in the price under the MACD line, below the level of 113.44, will be the first serious sign of a price choice in a downward direction.

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USDCAD bullish bounce | 16th Nov 2021

On the H4, with price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will bounce from 1st support at 1.24935 in line with the graphical swing overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to our 1st resistance at 1.26028 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance and possibly to 2nd resistance at 1.27083 in line with our horizontal overlap resistance and 100% Fibonacci projection level. Alternatively, we may see price break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support at 1.24100 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal swing low support.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.24935
Reason for Entry:
graphical swing overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
Take Profit: 1.26028
Reason for Take Profit:
horizontal overlap resistance
Stop Loss: 1.24100
Reason for Stop Loss:
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 17, 2021

It looks like the euro is being pulled into a swamp. The euro continued its decline on Tuesday, started on the 10th and almost reached the target level of 1.1300. The potential for convergence reversal formation has dried up. Now two scenarios are possible: the price settles below the level of 1.1300 and continues to decline to 1.1170, or (due to the lack of convergence) makes a sharp return above the level of 1.1448 and lies in the mid-term sideways, about two weeks, in the range 1.1448-1.1572 with false exits in both sides during this lateral movement.

There is not a very strong sign of a reversal on the four-hour time scale - the sideways movement of the Marlin Oscillator. But, of course, this same technical element can turn into consolidation before further, albeit not very deep, decline.

Now, if we hope for a price reversal, we should wait for it to break above the MACD indicator line, above the level of 1.1448. Further growth, as already mentioned, is expected to be difficult, with lateral preliminary movement, with false signals.

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US shares lower at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.58%

At the close in New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones lost 0.58%, the S&P 500 lost 0.26% and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.33%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc, which rose in price by 2.49 points (1.65%), to close at 153.49. Home Depot Inc rose 0.64% or 2.52 points to end trades at 394.85. Johnson & Johnson rose 0.38% or 0.61 points to close at 163.28.

The biggest losers were Visa Inc Class A, which fell 4.70% or 10.12 points to end the session at 205.06. Goldman Sachs Group Inc gained 2.86% or 11.54 points to end at 391.55, while Merck & Company Inc was down 1.80% or 1.51 points to close at around 82.60.

TJX Companies Inc, which gained 5.83% to 73.55, gained 3.25% to close at 1.089.01, and also General Motors Company shares rose 3.19% to end the session at 64.61.

The biggest losers were TechnipFMC PLC, which fell 7.31% to close at 6.720. APA Corporation shed 6.62% to end the session at 27.66. HollyFrontier Corporation was down 6.12% to 32.54.

The growth leaders among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were InMed Pharmaceuticals Inc, which rose 39.29% to 1.950, Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 30.96%, to close at 18.400, and Where Food Comes From Inc, which added 29.26% to end at 14.60.

The biggest losers were StoneCo Ltd, which fell 34.62% to close at 20.70. Odonate Therapeutics shed 29.39% to end the session at 2.330. Bit Brother Ltd was down 28.93% to 1.2650.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,227) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,026), while the quotations of 138 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2637 companies fell in price, 1107 rose, and 182 remained at the level of the previous close.

General Motors Company shares rose to an all-time high, gaining 3.19%, 2.00 points, to close at 64.61. Home Depot Inc rose to an all-time high, rising 0.64%, 2.52 points to trade at 394.85. StoneCo Ltd fell to a 52-week low, down 34.62%, 10.96 points to end at 20.70. Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals Inc rose to a 52-week high, rising 30.96%, 4.350 points to trade at 18,400. Odonate Therapeutics fell to historic lows, down 29.39%, 0.970 points to trade at 2.330.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 4.52% to trade at 17.11.

Gold Futures for December delivery was up 0.80% or 14.85 to $ 1,868.95 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery fell 3.09%, or 2.46, to $ 77.28 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery fell 2.80% or 2.31 to trade at $ 80.12 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.02% to hit 1.1321, while USD / JPY was down 0.61% to hit 114.12.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.12% at 95.793.

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US stocks multi-directional at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.17%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones lost 0.17%, the S&P 500 gained 0.38% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.45%.

The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index at the end of today's trading were shares of Apple Inc., which rose in price by 4.38 points (2.85%), to close at 157.87. Home Depot Inc rose 2.79% or 11.00 points to end at 405.85. Walmart Inc rose 0.86% or 1.22 points to close at 143.16.

The biggest losers were Cisco Systems Inc, which fell 5.51% or 3.13 points to end the session at 53.63. American Express Company was up 1.89% or 3.40 points to end at 176.21 and 3M Company was down 1.70% or 3.09 points to 178. 77.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Macy's Inc, which rose in price by 21.17% to 37.37, Kohls Corp, which gained 10.62%, to close at 62.48, and shares NVIDIA Corporation rose 8.25% to end 316.75.

The biggest losers were Helmerich and Payne Inc, which fell 16.48% to close at 26.16. Nektar Therapeutics shares lost 8.48% to 11.76 in the day.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Longeveron LLC, which rose 135.27% to 6.870, Dicerna Pharmaceuticals Inc, which gained 78.71%, to close at 38.03, as well as Virtuoso Acquisition Corp, which were up 43.95% to end at 14.510.

The biggest losers were Amtech Systems Inc, which fell 26.61% to close at 11,200. Femasys Inc shed 20.53% to end the session at 5.11. Gracell Biotechnologies Inc. decreased in price by 22.12% to the level of 8.98.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell (2,145) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1,111), while the quotations of 123 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2610 companies fell in price, 1133 rose, and 179 remained at the level of the previous close.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, was up 2.81% to hit 17.59.

Gold Futures for December delivery was down 0.45% or 8.45 to $ 1,861.75 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude oil futures for January delivery rose 0.99%, or 0.77, to $ 78.32 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for January delivery rose 1.03% or 0.83 to trade at $ 81.11 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.46% to hit 1.1371, while the USD / JPY was up 0.15% to hit 114.25.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.30% at 95.537.

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European equities tumble on news of Austrian lockdown

Earlier this week, Austria became the first European country to impose travel restrictions on people who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The republic has the lowest level of vaccination in the region, that is, 65%.

In addition, in Germany this week the record for the number of cases per day was broken - more than 65 thousand people. The country's health minister Jens Spahn did not rule out the possibility of introducing a nationwide lockdown. According to Spahn, the situation is now even more serious than it was a week ago.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.3% and amounted to 486.08 points.

The German DAX dropped 0.3%, the French CAC 40 - 0.4%, the British FTSE 100 - 0.5%. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX lost 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

The European Central Bank (ECB) should not rush to tighten monetary policy, even in the face of "unwanted and painful" inflation, said ECB President Christine Lagarde. The main factors driving inflation - supply chain problems and rising energy prices - will ease over the medium term, she said.

Retail sales in the UK in October rose from the previous month for the first time in six months - by 0.8%, but decreased by 1.3% compared to October last year, according to the National Statistical Office (ONS) of the country.

At the same time, the consumer confidence index in the country in November rose by three points compared to the previous month and amounted to minus 14 points, according to data from GfK NOP Ltd., which calculates this indicator. The indicator increased for the first time in four months.

Producer prices in Germany in October increased by 18.4% compared to the same month last year, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany (Destatis). Growth was at its highest since November 1951.

British home improvement chain Kingfisher was down 4.4%. The company in the third quarter of this year reduced its revenue by 2.4%. However, the report marks a strong start to the fourth quarter.

Irish low-cost airline Ryanair Holdings lost 2.3%. The carrier is set to delist its shares from the London Stock Exchange on 20 December. Ryanair noted that the company's stock trading volume on the LSE does not justify the cost of maintaining the listing.

The banking sector lost the most at the end of trading: shares of Raiffeisen Bank International AG fell by almost 7%, Deutsche Bank AG - by 5%, Erste Group Bank AG - by 5.2%, UniCredit S.p.A. - by 4.5%.

The shares of the IT company Amadeus IT Group S.A. were also in the red. (-4.8%) and Wizz Air Holdings PLC (-4.6%).

The growth leaders in the Stoxx 600 were shares of the British online grocery chain Ocado Group (+ 6.8%), the Polish manufacturer of electronic check-in terminals InPost (+ 7.4%), the French luxury goods manufacturer Hermes International (+ 5.2% ), delivery service operators Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (+ 6.3%) and Deliveroo PLC (+ 4.4%).

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European equity markets finished trading without a single dynamic

Traders have been closely monitoring the change in the number of cases in Europe after Austria last week decided to introduce a lockdown. German authorities have begun talking about the possibility of taking a similar measure due to record rates of morbidity per day. However, in Germany, so far, restrictions have been introduced only for those who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19. The French authorities over the weekend announced signs of a very rapid spread of the next, fifth wave of coronavirus infection.

The spotlight on Monday was the news that US President Joe Biden has nominated the current head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Jerome Powell for a second term in this post. This was announced by the White House. At the same time, Leil Brainard, a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, was nominated for the post of his deputy. "I have full confidence that Chairman Powell and Dr. Brainard will provide the strong leadership our country needs after having been" tested by fire "over the past 20 months, Biden said in a statement.

Powell's four-year term as head of the Fed expires in February 2022. The Senate vote is expected to proceed smoothly, with significant Republican support, and he will be confirmed in office before the current term expires, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 by the close of trading lost 0.13% and amounted to 485.46 points.

The German DAX fell 0.27%, the French CAC 40 - 0.1%. Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 0.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB rose 0.2%, and Spain's IBEX climbed 0.8%.

Italy's largest telephony operator Telecom Italia rose 30.3%, supported by news that US investment firm KKR & Co. wants to buy Telecom Italia for 10.8 billion euros.

The value of the world leader in wealth management UBS Group AG increased by 0.9%. The company's board of directors has nominated former Morgan Stanley president Colm Kelleher for the chairmanship.

German bank Deutsche Bank AG fell 0.4%. The bank has nominated the ex-head of the Dutch insurance company Aegon NV Alexander Winandts to the post of chairman of the supervisory board.

Hochschild Mining Plc shares plunged 27.2% on reports that Peruvian authorities will ban new mining and exploration operations in the region where the company's two mines are located, due to environmental concerns.

Capitalization of the Swedish telecommunications equipment manufacturer Ericsson AB decreased by 5.2%. The company will buy US cloud service provider Vonage Holdings Corp. for $ 6.2 billion

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Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on November 24

Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but the increase was limited because the MACD line was far from zero. But when a signal to sell appeared, the pair rose even though the MACD line was already in the overbought area. This continued for the rest of the day. The upward movement was around 15 pips.

Euro rallied yesterday, thanks to better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing and service PMI in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the statements of ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos were ignored even though he mentioned the need for stricter inflation control.

The observed bullish momentum may continue today if the data on business conditions, assessments of the current situation and economic expectations come out stronger than the forecasts. ECB board member Fabio Panetta will also speak, and it could push euro higher if he mentions inflationary pressures

In the afternoon, US will release a report on Q3 GDP, which could raise dollar demand if the figure is revised for the better. Data on jobless claims, income and expenses will also be published, followed by the minutes of the recent Fed meeting. If the protocol does not indicate aggressive intentions of the committee members, demand for dollar will decline.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1253 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1299. Demand will increase if the Euro area reports very strong economic statistics.

Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1227, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1253 and 1.1299.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1227 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1185. Demand will decline if the situation with COVID-19 escalates. Weak data from Germany and strong statistics from US will also provoke a decrease in EUR / USD.

Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1283, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1255 and 1.1216.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 26, 2021

Yesterday, the dollar against the yen could not withstand the pressure from technical factors and this morning fell to the signal level of 114.71 (October 20 high). After the price drops below this level, the USD/JPY pair may continue to move to the magnetic point at 113.20 - to the point of intersection of the price channel line with the MACD line. The price can overcome the target, since below it is the second target level of 112.74, which is desirable for the bulls to work out if they intend to advance further - to create a false downward movement.

To complete the bearish picture, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator does not reach the negative area. Perhaps this will happen when the price goes below the signal level.

The price almost touched the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Settling below it, as well as below the level of 114.71, will become a condition for further price movement to the downside. The Marlin Oscillator is already in the negative zone.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 26, 2021

The euro has finally started to form a slight reversal from the target level of 1.1170. The miniature double bottom figure at the Marlin Oscillator on the daily scale has worked.

We consider the observed growth so far as an upward movement within the framework of the sideways movement of 1.1170-1.1300. The range, of course, can be extended, the other upper boundary is the 1.1375 level - the peak on November 18. In the next two weeks, this level may be reached by the MACD indicator line. Then either the downward trend will resume, or the price will break above the MACD line and outline a mid-term growth.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator has entered the positive area. The convergence is fully formed, but it remains to wait for the price to break above the MACD line, above 1.1250. This moment will confirm that the price is in a sideways trend.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on November 29, 2021

The euro corrected upward by 120 points on Thursday and Friday last week, turning around without reaching the target level of 1.1170. Growth may continue to 1.1375 - the highs on November 18 or slightly higher towards the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown sharply, now it can be in free roaming for some time, which will affect the price in a wide-range sideways movement. So far, this range is defined by the levels 1.1170-1.1375.

On the four-hour scale chart, the price managed to get above both indicator lines - above the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator has grown up high, but it is not yet in the overbought zone, so the price has the prospect of reaching the level of 1.1375. The recovery of the bearish trend will occur when the price moves below the MACD line, below 1.1235. But taking into account the situation on the daily scale, there is a significant likelihood of a false price drift under the MACD line, and then, after the target level of 1.1170 has been worked out, the price may again turn into corrective growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak tonight at a social event in New York, tomorrow in the Senate before the Banking Committee, and the day after tomorrow in the House of Representatives. Also tomorrow we will have John Williams, Richard Clarida and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. It may very well be that the risks associated with the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus will be affected, and then the maturing expectations of 2 or even 3 rate hikes next year will disappear, and the euro will begin to recover its lost positions.

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 29, 2021

As a result of Friday's collapse in the stock markets (Euro Stoxx 50 - 4.74%, S&P 500 -2.27%), the yen strengthened against the dollar by 1.72% (197 points). The first bearish target was reached, the price slowed down on the embedded price channel line of the weekly timeframe. Now, according to the main scenario, the price will have to overcome the support of the MACD indicator line at 113.06, after which the 110.75 target will open in front of it - the lower line of the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator has forcefully entered the territory of the downward trend, divergence with the price is formed and confirmed. We look forward to further price reductions.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below both indicator lines - below the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin Oscillator is already leaving the oversold zone, which tells us about the impending price correction before its further decline. The limit of such a correction is seen as the Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 114.30, which is the November 12 high (checkmark).

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Forecast for USD/JPY on November 30, 2021

Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair once again tested the strength of the embedded line of the price channel of the higher timeframe, it is shown in green on the chart. Now this support was strengthened by the MACD indicator line - the price rebound to the upside turned out to be qualitative. The Marlin Oscillator supports the reversal, but still remains in the negative area.

However, the reversal should be confirmed. A visually strong resistance level is the upper border of the consolidation on October 26-November 4 at 114.31. It is also desirable to receive confirmation from the Marlin Oscillator, which needs to move into the zone of positive values.

On the chart of the four-hour scale, the bulls' shortcomings, or rather the inadequacy of the work done by them, is seen more clearly. The price is still far below the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin Oscillator is moving up slowly and is still in the negative area. Therefore, the likelihood of another attack on support at 113.13 remains high. We are waiting for the development of further events, the formation of any technical signals or the strengthening of the existing prerequisites.

Forecast for AUD/USD on November 30, 2021

The Australian dollar gained 23 points on Monday, the trading range stayed within the 0.7107-07171 levels. Overcoming any of these levels may mean a continuation of the short-term movement: downward to the 0.7065 target (June 2020 high), ascending to the target of 0.7227. The Marlin Oscillator is showing an upward reversal, but it looks weak.

On the four-hour scale, the price approaches the magnetic point - to the point where the target level of 0.7171 coincides with the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The Marlin Oscillator already anticipates this event with a transition to a positive area, entering a zone of a growing trend.

So consolidating above 0.7171 opens the target at 0.7227. This is the main option. If the price moves below the level of 0.7107, an alternative variant will open with a movement to 0.7065.

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Technical analysis recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on December 1, 2021

EUR/USD

The bears descended to the area of the final border of the monthly Ichimoku gold cross (1.1290) last month. It was not possible to break through the level, the closing of the month was indicated by a long lower shadow of the monthly candle. Therefore, the bulls now have opportunities to develop the rebound from the encountered support. In this situation, it will be possible to make further plans and consider new upward prospects after the formation of a rebound from 1.1290 and consolidation above the important resistance zone of 1.1439 - 1.1492, where several of the strongest levels in the higher timeframes combined (monthly levels + weekly short-term trend + closing levels of the daily Ichimoku cross).

Yesterday, the nearest resistance along the way was tested – the daily Fibo Kijun (1.1379). Alternatively, the breakdown of the monthly support at 1.1290 and the update of the November low (1.1186), will allow us to consider continuing the decline and strengthening the bearish mood. In this case, the closest downward pivot point will be the weekly target for the breakdown of the cloud (1.0806 - 1.0960).

The bulls in the smaller timeframes limited themselves yesterday to testing the final border of the classic pivot levels and failed to continue the rise further. At the moment, they still have the advantage. Today, their intraday pivot points are set at 1.1402 - 1.1467 - 1.1550 (classic pivot levels). The key support levels, which are now located at 1.1319 (central Pivot level) and 1.1267 (weekly long-term trend), allow the bulls to defend their interests despite the long-term trading in the correction zone.

A consolidation below will change the current balance of power and bring back the relevance of bearish targets, such as the minimum extremum (1.1186) and the support of the classic pivot levels (1.1254 - 1.1171 - 1.1106).

GBP/USD

The bears tried to reach the monthly support (1.3164) at the end of the previous month but failed to test the level or close the month next to it. Nevertheless, November indicated the nearest bearish plans – entering the bearish zone relative to the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.3248) and breaking through the monthly support (1.3164).

As for the bulls, it is important for them to keep their position above the current support and attraction zone 1.3248 (lower border of the weekly cloud) - 1.3164 (monthly Fibo Kijun), regain support for the daily short-term trend (1.3351), and also strive to restore their positions to weekly levels (1.3516-76), eliminate the daily dead cross (1.3503 - 1.3586) and rise to the daily Ichimoku cloud.

Bullish traders in the smaller intervals failed to consolidate above the key levels and reverse the moving average yesterday, which resulted in the continuing struggle for key levels. Today's key levels are at 1.3286 (central pivot level) and 1.3322 (weekly long-term trend). A movement below the levels gives preference to the bears. Their pivot points are currently set at 1.3203 - 1.3109 - 1.3026 (support for the classic pivot levels). It is worth noting that the aforementioned levels give preference to the bulls. Their upward targets are at 1.3380 - 1.3463 - 1.3557 (resistance levels of the classic pivot levels).

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Is the pound sterling the restless hostage of Omicron?

The British currency has temporarily gone into the shadow of the aggressive US dollar and the volatile euro. At the same time, the pound is trying to assert itself, while resisting pressure from the new mutation of the Omicron coronavirus.

Before Omicron's appearance on the scene, the key drivers of the global market were traders' expectations about the early curtailment of incentives and a rise in rates. These sentiments have now intensified as the new strain has made its own adjustments. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed, announced his readiness to accelerate these processes amid off-scale inflation and general instability. He believes that the new COVID-19 mutation provokes prolonged inflationary pressure.

Earlier, the Fed's head agreed that the strongest growth in consumer prices was recorded in the United States, which could push the national economy into the pit of stagflation. Against the background of extremely high inflation in the US, the yield spread between ten-year and two-year Treasury bonds has sharply declined. This indicator turned out to be at a minimum over the past 10 months, which indicates a further downward trend in the GBP/USD pair.

In the current situation, the British currency is experiencing serious overloads. Some restlessness of the pound, bordering on confusion, destabilizes the market. According to analysts, it risks becoming a hostage of Omicron. Despite the current difficulties, the pound is trying to cope with the situation.

The danger of a new strain of coronavirus for the British economy was noted by one of the representatives of the Bank of England. According to the official, Omicron has called into question the further growth of consumer confidence in the country. Economists fear that the new COVID-19 mutation will provoke a drop in demand for consumer services and logistics problems. At the same time, experts believe that Omicron should not affect the Bank of England's plans for a possible tightening of the PEPP.

On Wednesday, global markets and risky assets remained stable. The British currency added 0.17%, reaching the level of 1.3318. However, the triumph was temporary: the pound remained near a one-year low against the US dollar, and then sharply fell to 1.3195. The reason for this fall was the market's doubts about the Bank of England's early interest rate hike. On Thursday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.3291. There is currently no clear trend in the pair, and the support level of 1.3263 restrains the bears' dominance.

Many market participants are quite optimistic. Investors believe that the new strain of coronavirus will not affect the further recovery of the global economy. The pound is trying to consolidate in this trend and strengthen its current positions. According to UOB Group analysts, the pound may decline to 1.3260 in the coming weeks, although this scenario is unlikely.

"A further drawdown of the GBP is possible, but a strong support level near 1.3195 will be a tough nut to crack," the UOB Group believes. According to analysts, the pound is not in danger of serious weakening in the short term.

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Is USD dependent on stock market?

The US dollar is again undergoing a period of volatility, with rare periods of stability, as USD traders await the US labor market report.

Early on Friday, December 3, EUR/USD was trading at 1.1289, below the previous closing price of 1.1299. The US currency edged up slightly before the release of non-farm payrolls, fuelled by concerns over the new Omicron strain, which have now eased.

As markets remain relatively calm, the US dollar has strengthened its position in the run-up to the non-farm payroll release. Strong US labor market data would clear the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates early, analysts say.

Recently, the US dollar has been moving largely under the influence of key interest rate changes, with safe-haven investment demand affecting it only negligibly. The American currency rate has been highly dependent on the global stock market - a new norm, according to some experts.

At this moment, the USD cash flow is determined by equity volatility, as well as risk hedging related to it. Earlier, the inverse correlation was in effect. The Fed's key interest rate is crucial for the market. The yield of US 2-year treasury bonds, which is closely connected with the Deutsche Bank volatility index, is used to determine the future rate. Amid spiraling inflation, investors expect an early rate hike, which would push up the bond yield and the US dollar.

The US non-farm payrolls are in focus at the end of the week. The unemployment rate is expected to go down to 4.5%, with non-farm employment projected to increase by 550,000. The amount of jobless claims fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began.

Strong US labor market data are unlikely to propel the dollar upward, but it could limit the pessimistic sentiment over the spread of Omicron variant, and allow the Fed to go through with the plan to wind down QE and hike the rates in 2022.

While the markets remain somewhat volatile, with strong NFP expectations stabilizing it slightly, the greenback is likely to maintain upside potential. Satisfactory payroll data and the possibility of an earlier end of QE would push the dollar up.

According to an outlook by Goldman Sachs, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times - in June, September, and December, followed by further monetary tightening. Downside risks for the global economy caused by Omicron would boost demand for USD as a safe-haven, giving it support, Goldman Sachs analysts note.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on December 17, 2021

Yesterday, the Australian dollar traded in a range of 80 points, it closed the day by gaining 15 points, which is not very impressive with the fall of the US dollar index by 0.36%. At the moment, the price is between two levels: 0.7171 and 0.7227. Now the breakthrough above the upper level of the 0.7227 range will open the target along the MACD line at 0.7285, consolidating below 0.7171 can send the price to the 0.7065 level, which was not reached at the beginning of the week.

On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator formed a divergence with the price. At the moment, the price is staying above the balance indicator line (red moving one), which retains the bulls' advantage. The situation turns out to be twofold, therefore the technical signal levels 0.7171 and 0.7227 acquire the main attention and the main role. The bears' first target at 0.7130 is the MACD line on H4.

US indices closed lower

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.48% on Friday and ended trading at 35365.44 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 1.03% to 4620.64 points.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite lost less than 0.1% to 15169.68 points.

By the end of the week, the Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3%.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve System (FRS) decided to accelerate the pace of winding down its asset-buying program and signaled its readiness to raise rates several times next year. In addition, the Bank of England was the first among the world's leading central banks to raise its key rate to 0.25% from 0.1%.

Meanwhile, Andrew Brenner of NatAlliance Securities believes that the sharp decline in the US stock market was caused rather not by fears of tightening monetary policy, but by other reasons. In particular, he points out that Friday was the so-called Quadruple Witching Day, when index and stock futures and options expire. On this day, there is often increased volatility in the market.

A strong decline on Friday was demonstrated by securities of financial companies. Quotes from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell 3.9%, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 2.3%, quotations of the payment system American Express Co. fell 1.8%, quotations of Visa Inc. dropped by 1.2%.

General Motors shares tumbled 5.5% on news of the unexpected resignation of Dan Amman, head of the self-driving car business.

American chain restaurant operator Darden Restaurants fell 5%. The company released strong quarterly earnings, but gave a weak annual forecast and said its CEO, Eugene Lee, will step down next May.

Johnson & Johnson's capitalization fell 2.8% after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that citizens get vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna coronavirus vaccines instead of J&J vaccines because of the risk of blood clots.

Meanwhile, FedEx Corp. jumped 5% in trading after one of the world's largest transportation and logistics companies beat market expectations in adjusted earnings and revenues and improved its full-year forecast.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on December 21, 2021

The pound approached the first target level of 1.3160 by 34 points by the end of Monday. The success of the bears, that is, overcoming this support, will open the second target at 1.3012 - the October 2019 high. The Marlin Oscillator is declining in the negative area. The general trend is downward.

On yesterday's four-hour chart, the strength of the resistance of the MACD indicator line was confirmed - the price turned down from it (arrow). The Marlin Oscillator is developing in the negative area. We look forward to further declines.

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 21, 2021

At the end of yesterday, the situation with regard to the yen had practically not changed - the price continued to stay between the support of the trend line of the price channel at 113.22 and the MACD indicator line at 113.96. On December 15, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator reversed from the zero line, now it moves horizontally below it - this is the market's preparation for a decline. Also, stock indices fell yesterday: S&P 500 -1.14%, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.30%, which helps the pair USD/JPY to develop a downward movement. The target of the decline at 110.80 is the price channel line of the higher timeframe.

On the four-hour scale, the price is strongly supported by the MACD indicator line. Accordingly, consolidating below it becomes the main condition for the formation of a medium-term fall. The direct signal will be the price crossing below the level of 113.22.

The Marlin Oscillator has crossed the border with the growth territory, but this may turn out to be a false signal.470

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US shares higher at close of trade; Dow Jones up 1.60%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones climbed 1.60%, the S&P 500 gained 1.78% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.40%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Nike Inc, which rose in price by 9.65 points (6.15%), to close at 166.63. Boeing Co rose 5.86% or 11.04 points to end at 199.52. American Express Company added 3.22% or 5.02 points to close at 160.91.

The biggest losers were Merck & Company Inc, which fell 1.14% or 0.87 points to end the session at 75.54. Verizon Communications Inc rose 0.58% or 0.31 points to end at 52.78, while Johnson & Johnson was down 0.32% or 0.54 points to 167. , 21.

The growth leaders among the S&P 500 index components at the end of today's trading were Citrix Systems Inc, which gained 13.63% to 95.05, Micron Technology Inc, which gained 10.54% to close at 90.68, and also Expedia Inc, which was up 9.14% to end at 177.27.

The biggest losers were General Mills Inc, which fell 4.03% to close at 65.06. The Kroger Company shed 3.60% to end the session at 43.87. Pfizer Inc was down 3.39% to 58.95.

The leaders of growth among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Reliance Global Group Inc, which rose in price by 78.69% to the level of 5.450, Biofrontera Inc, which gained 44.75%, to close at 11.03, as well as shares IsoPlexis Corp rose 40.82% to end at 6.90.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares that went up (2,671) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (604), while the quotes of 88 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2889 companies rose in price, 880 declined, and 215 remained at the level of the previous close.

Aldeyra The shares fell to a 52-week low, shedding 50.91%, 3.63 points to trade at 3.50. Biofrontera Inc rose to an all-time high, gaining 44.75%, 3.41 points, to trade at 11.03. DBV Technologies shares fell to historic lows, down 48.52%, 1.310 points, and ended trading at 1.390. CytomX Therapeutics Inc fell to a 52-week low, down 40.00%, 2.580 points to trade at 3.870.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 8.13% to trade at 21.01.

Gold Futures for February delivery was down 0.28% or 5.05 to $ 1,789.55 a troy ounce. Elsewhere, WTI crude for February delivery rose 3.92%, or 2.69, to $ 71.30 a barrel. Futures contract for Brent oil for February delivery was flat 0.00%, or 0.00, to trade at $ 74.03 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, the EUR / USD pair was up 0.02% to hit 1.1286, while the USD / JPY was up 0.01% to hit 114.10.

The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.10% at 96.445.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on December 23, 2021

Yesterday, the euro decided to choose an upward direction, intending to complicate and lengthen the horizontal movement, which began on November 29-30. There are about 20 points until the resistance of the MACD line (1.1363), and without breaking the main scenario and its own sideways movement, it is likely that the price will turn down from this resistance. If it overcomes the 1.1363 level, the main scenario will change to a price reversal from the target level of 1.1415. But if the price settles above 1.1415, then an alternative scenario will take effect with the price rising to the target level of 1.1572 (the January 2019 high).

An interesting situation develops on the Marlin Oscillator. Yesterday's exit of the signal line from the rectangular area of consolidation, marked with a gray area, repeats the exit of the signal line from the same consolidation on October 28 - it is marked with a red oval. And, as you can see, after the signal line returned to the range, the price fell.

On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the MACD line, Marlin is confidently rising in the positive area - the situation is upward. Probably, the price will decide to test the strength of the resistance range of 1.1363-1.1415.

Forecast for AUD/USD on December 23, 2021

The Australian dollar approached the resistance of 0.7227 for the second time in the last five days. According to one of the scenarios we are considering, the price may turn down from the resistance today. A modified, but also a scenario for a reversal, assumes a price reversal from the MACD line in the area of 0.7275. Settling above 0.7275 reveals the growth scenario for the aussie to hit the first target at 0.7414. Returning to the area below 0.7171 will open the target at 0.7065.

On the four-hour chart, the price is in an upward position. The planned reversals of the price and the oscillator cannot yet clarify the situation of the higher scale, we are waiting for a signal from the target levels - which one the price could overcome.

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Pound sterling reached the high and the small pullback was not critical

The British currency has confidently moved to the next peaks by the end of this week and successfully reached its high. A slight decline did not prevent it from enjoying the victory, which is not the last in the list of this currency.

Yesterday, it managed to rise to a one-month high against the US dollar amid improved risk appetite as concerns about the Omicron coronavirus strain eased. On this wave, the British currency reached the psychologically significant level of 1.3400 and further moved up. Such growth was recorded for the first time since November 23 of this year in view of the US dollar's temporary collapse. According to MUFG Bank analysts, the increased risk appetite negatively affected the American currency and gave a head start to the British one. However, they believe that the prospects for raising interest rates in the United States in 2022 will significantly support the USD.

The pound tried to rise previously, especially before the meeting of the Bank of England. Short bursts of growth did not make significant changes in the dynamics of the pound. However, the situation has now stabilized. On Friday morning, the GBP/USD pair was around the level of 1.3404, but could not hold its gained positions and remained in the range of 1.3392-1.3393.

Analysts said that the pound has risen to the upper border of the wide range, wherein it has been since this month started. Many experts believe that the current dynamics of this currency are caused by technical rather than macroeconomic factors. Analysts pay attention to the overbought GBP, the fact of which is putting pressure on buyers. The current situation forms the so-called "swing" between sellers and buyers. This contributes to the transition of the GBP/USD pair into a downward spiral, where the nearest target is the level of 1.3290.

Meanwhile, the UK's macroeconomic data did not affect the dynamics of the pound very much. Some of them, particularly the rates of economic growth, were revised upward (from the previous 23.6% to the current 24.2%). UK GDP data for the third quarter of 2021 turned out to be slightly worse than forecasted, but quite acceptable – economic growth slowed down by 6.8%. A relatively calm economic environment favorably influenced the dynamics of the pound. According to analysts, the closest prospects for the pound look positive. Based on January 2022 forecast, the British currency may rise.

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Gold's price rises again amid the strengthening coronavirus risks

The new COVID-19 strain has left a negative imprint on Christmas this year, helping gold in post-holiday trading in Asia. On Monday morning, the metal started to rise.

Last week, which was shortened due to the celebration of Christmas, the precious metal closed with a rise of 0.4%. The quotes were mainly supported by the growing fears about the spread of the Omicron strain.

On Monday, investors remained concerned that a new variant of the coronavirus could slow the global economic recovery. The degree of panic in the market is raised by disappointing statistics.

It should be noted that the average number of new coronavirus patients in the US last week rose 45%, namely to 179,000 per day. In addition, the UK and France are reporting a new daily high of COVID-19 cases. In these countries, the figure exceeded 122 thousand and 94 thousand, respectively.

The surge in morbidity has led to additional restrictions on Christmas, when travel has traditionally been increasing. To reduce the spread of the virus, commercial airlines around the world canceled more than 4,500 flights over the holiday weekend.

In view of this, the US dollar and the yield on US Treasuries began the new trading week on a minor note. Earlier, the index of the US currency declined by 0.08%, reporting to 96.10 points. At the same time, the yield fell to 1.482%, retreating from the 2-week high reached the day before.

The weakening US dollar and falling yields allowed gold to rise to $1,812.

The tense geopolitical situation also contributed to the upward dynamics of precious metals on Monday morning.

On the other hand, analysts call optimistic data on US retail sales during the holiday shopping season as among the negative factors that are holding back gold's growth. According to the MasterCard report, the indicator increased by 8.5% from November 1 to December 24.

In addition, a current potential danger for the yellow asset is the prospect of adopting the plan of US President Joe Biden. According to experts, any comments on the approval of this bill may put downward pressure on gold quotes in the near future, while on the contrary, the demand for risky assets will grow.

In general, analysts are confident that this week's trading of gold will be weak and limited by a narrow price range because it is currently impossible to single out any particularly powerful trigger among the contradictory factors that are present in the precious metal market.

Experts suggest that a stronger price fluctuation on the current seven-day period is likely to be caused by the publication of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas production index for December. Economists expect an increase to 13.2 from the 11.8 achieved last month.

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Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on December 28, 2021

Here are the details of the economic calendar for December 27, 2021:

The macroeconomic calendar was empty yesterday, and it was a non-working day in the UK. As a result, market activity was quite low – currencies mostly stood still.

Analysis of trading charts from December 27:

The EUR/USD pair is moving within the upper border of the side channel 1.1225/1.1355, where the wide amplitude has been replaced by a narrow one. This may signal the process of accumulation of trading forces before a new price increase.

The GBP/USD pair locally updated last week's high of 1.3436, but this did not lead to drastic changes. The quote remained in the same place. This confirms the formation of stagnation, which may become a catalyst for trade forces in the long term if new speculative surges are observed.

Despite a fairly strong price growth, there is still a downward trend relative to the daily period. The upward movement may be classified as a correction.

December 28 economic calendar:

Today is not much different from the past. It is still a non-working day in the UK due to the celebration of "Boxing Day". Among the statistical indicators, only the S&P/CaseShiller housing price index in the United States can be noted, which is expected to fall from 19.1% to 18.5%. It is unlikely that the data will affect anything in the market.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on December 28:

The stagnation within the upper border of the flat may be replaced by a decline if the rebound trading method is executed. A signal to sell the euro will appear in the market when the price is kept below the level of 1.1300. This step will lead to the quote's decrease towards the area of 1.1265 - 1.1225.

An alternative scenario of market development considers the tactics of breaking the upper border of the flat. In this case, the euro will receive a short-term signal towards the 1.1400 level. The main signal about the change of trading forces will appear in the market after the price holds above the level of 1.1400 in the daily period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on December 28:

It is impossible to exclude price surges that will lead to the end of stagnation since there is a high speculative interest in the market. So, traders consider local buy positions above the level of 1.3450 in a four-hour period. This may lead to a prolongation of the correction course in the direction of 1.3510.

The downward trend scenario will become relevant when the price holds below the level of 1.3370. This will lead to a decline towards 1.3290.

A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.

Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.

Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.

The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on December 29, 2021

Yesterday, the Australian dollar attempted to converge with the daily MACD line. The attempt failed and the price quickly returned below the balance indicator line. It ended the day below the balance line, which confirmed our position on the corrective nature of the aussie's entire growth since December 6th. At the moment, the price has gone below the target level 0.7272, closing the day below it will mean settling below the level and its further intention to overcome 0.7171 and head to 0.7065.

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin Oscillator has entered the negative zone - the territory of the downward trend. Confirmation and reinforcement of this signal will be the price drift under the MACD indicator line, below 0.7205.

Forecast for USD/JPY on December 29, 2021

As a result of yesterday, the USD/JPY pair dropped by 4 points, which can be taken as consolidation after the 50-point growth on Monday. This consolidation also suggests that the price is accumulating potential for further growth. The growth target is the 115.80-116.15 range. Returning under the MACD line (114.24) will reverse the downward trend, its nearest target is 113.25.

On the 4-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator is approaching the zero line, the crossing of which will be an early signal for a reversal. Most likely, this will happen when the price settles below yesterday's low of 114.72, that is, the pair should grow from the current levels in order not to give such an embarrassing signal. However, the correction may develop to the level of 114.24 already noted on the daily chart.

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Bitcoin's indefinite direction this 2022

Bitcoin begins this year with cautious growth, wobbling on the edge of declining again. Nevertheless, many experts are optimistic about its prospects.

Most analysts are confident that the first cryptocurrency will rise this month. Crypto market experts agree that the first month of the new year will lay the foundation for Bitcoin's growth. According to preliminary calculations, it is likely to grow during the first quarter of 2022. This is facilitated by the activity on the part of institutional investors.

For the last seven years, the years 2020 and 2021 turned out to be the most favorable for the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin's price growth during the reporting period was 22%. It can be recalled that from 2015 to 2019, January was characterized by a decline for BTC. According to preliminary estimates, the average decline in digital assets over the years was 17%. At the same time, the average market rate of Bitcoin did not exceed $ 29,000 in early January 2021. The peak price of the leading crypto asset reached $69,000 in November 2021. Later, BTC collapsed by 53%, to $ 28,805. Fortunately, buyers regained their previous losses during the second quarter of the past year, although Bitcoin failed to retain its recovered positions after that. By the end of 2021, the yield of the first cryptocurrency was 72%.

The digital asset ended at around $47,500 during the previous year. On Monday, the BTC/USD pair was around the level of $46,921. It should be noted that at the end of December 2021, Bitcoin was trading at $ 46,300, unsuccessfully trying to rise. Over the past month, it decreased by 19%, which turned out to be one of the worst results since December 2011.

The first cryptocurrency started to fall when the Fed announced its decision to curtail the asset purchase program. The Fed's course of tightening monetary policy hit Bitcoin hard, which plunged noticeably and remained in a downward trend until the end of 2021.

It is usually cautious in the first month of the new year since traditionally, January is not considered a very positive month for this cryptocurrency. Many analysts fear the onset of the crypto winter, during which BTC will lose the major share of its value. In the event of a strong correction of risky assets, experts warn that it will decline to $ 10,000. Three factors can act as a catalyst for the crypto winter: a decrease in the activity of institutional investors, the introduction of national cryptocurrencies (CBDC) by many countries, and the struggle of regulators with the revolutionary blockchain technology sector – GameFi.

However, most experts expect an upward turn in the industry and believe in Bitcoin's prospects. This is facilitated by the high restorative power of Bitcoin and the belief in innovative means of payment as the money of the future. The short and medium-term planning horizon for Bitcoin is also encouraging. Under favorable circumstances, experts summarize that it may be in the range of $72,000 - $75,000 in the first half of 2022.

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New year, same dilemma: which to choose between gold or stocks?

The beginning of the new year brought losses to the precious metal. Traders turned away from it, disappointed with how the year 2021 ended in the gold market. As a result, gold declined by 3.6%.

Last week, gold rose by 0.9%, which led to a monthly increase of almost 3% and a quarterly increase of about 4%.

However, the yellow asset ended the year with losses. It showed the sharpest annual drop in 6 years. It plunged by 3.6%, while it fell by more than 10% in 2015.

The results of 2021 disappointed investors. On Monday, the gold market was dominated by a bearish mood. During trading, the precious metal fell 1.6%, or $ 28.50, and fell to a 2-week low of $ 1,800.10.

The fading fears about a new strain of coronavirus were also a strong negative factor for gold. The low mortality rate and hospitalization of patients with Omicron give hope that COVID-19 will not paralyze the world economy in the coming year.

On the wave of optimism about the prospects for global economic growth in 2022, the US stock market was in an optimistic state on Monday. The main US indices rose – Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.68%, and the S&P 500 also did so by 0.64%.

A good start to the year for the US dollar also contributed to the rise of indicators. The US currency strengthened by 0.3% due to the significant dynamics of the yield of 10-year US bonds, which reached the highest level yesterday since November.

Most likely, the US dollar and yields will continue their upward movement this week. They will be supported by the monthly report of the US Department of Labor for December.

Economists expect an increase in hourly wages by 0.4% compared to November when the indicator rose by 0.3%. The number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the country is also forecasted to rise by 400 thousand. This is almost twice the value recorded in the previous month.

According to strategist Chintan Karnani, it is imperative for gold to trade above the 200-day moving average of $ 1,806.40 right now in order to remain in the short-term bullish zone. Otherwise, we will see a sharper increase in market sales.

Meanwhile, most traders are cautiously optimistic about the future prospects of gold, despite the fact that historically, January is considered a seasonally favorable period for the yellow asset.

At this stage, investors prefer more risky financial instruments to the precious metal, i.e. stocks. However, experts warn that this year will be difficult for the stock market.

It is threatened by rising inflation, continued soft monetary policy by central banks, and a coronavirus that will not go away in the next 12 months. Against this background, gold will feel as comfortable as possible.

At the same time, geopolitical problems will help gold, which will become even more acute in 2022, analyst Jim Wyckoff believes. A bubble in the Chinese real estate market, which may burst, will facilitate this.

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New year, same dilemma: which to choose between gold or stocks?

The beginning of the new year brought losses to the precious metal. Traders turned away from it, disappointed with how the year 2021 ended in the gold market. As a result, gold declined by 3.6%.

Last week, gold rose by 0.9%, which led to a monthly increase of almost 3% and a quarterly increase of about 4%.

However, the yellow asset ended the year with losses. It showed the sharpest annual drop in 6 years. It plunged by 3.6%, while it fell by more than 10% in 2015.

The results of 2021 disappointed investors. On Monday, the gold market was dominated by a bearish mood. During trading, the precious metal fell 1.6%, or $ 28.50, and fell to a 2-week low of $ 1,800.10.

The fading fears about a new strain of coronavirus were also a strong negative factor for gold. The low mortality rate and hospitalization of patients with Omicron give hope that COVID-19 will not paralyze the world economy in the coming year.

On the wave of optimism about the prospects for global economic growth in 2022, the US stock market was in an optimistic state on Monday. The main US indices rose – Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.68%, and the S&P 500 also did so by 0.64%.

A good start to the year for the US dollar also contributed to the rise of indicators. The US currency strengthened by 0.3% due to the significant dynamics of the yield of 10-year US bonds, which reached the highest level yesterday since November.

Most likely, the US dollar and yields will continue their upward movement this week. They will be supported by the monthly report of the US Department of Labor for December.

Economists expect an increase in hourly wages by 0.4% compared to November when the indicator rose by 0.3%. The number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the country is also forecasted to rise by 400 thousand. This is almost twice the value recorded in the previous month.

According to strategist Chintan Karnani, it is imperative for gold to trade above the 200-day moving average of $ 1,806.40 right now in order to remain in the short-term bullish zone. Otherwise, we will see a sharper increase in market sales.

Meanwhile, most traders are cautiously optimistic about the future prospects of gold, despite the fact that historically, January is considered a seasonally favorable period for the yellow asset.

At this stage, investors prefer more risky financial instruments to the precious metal, i.e. stocks. However, experts warn that this year will be difficult for the stock market.

It is threatened by rising inflation, continued soft monetary policy by central banks, and a coronavirus that will not go away in the next 12 months. Against this background, gold will feel as comfortable as possible.

At the same time, geopolitical problems will help gold, which will become even more acute in 2022, analyst Jim Wyckoff believes. A bubble in the Chinese real estate market, which may burst, will facilitate this.

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Pound sterling achieved new records

As January begins, the British currency decided to keep up with the American one and achieve new records. The pound has now succeeded in its plans, but experts warn about the temporary nature of its growth.

The pound began the new month of the new year by reaching price highs. On Tuesday, it approached two-year highs against the European currency and slightly fell amid the strengthening of the US dollar (by 0.12%, to 1.3464). This was facilitated by a prolonged rise in the cost of government bond yields amid growing expectations about the Bank of England's rate hike. According to preliminary calculations, the interest rate increase will occur next month.

The current situation gave impulse to the pound, which it successfully used. On Wednesday morning, the GBP/USD pair was trading at the level of 1.3527, regaining previous losses and heading towards new levels. However, experts are worried that the pound will not be able to hold on to the reached positions in the mid-term and will plunge again.

Many economists believe that the growth of the pound and the GBP/USD pair will be temporary if inflation in the US and UK accelerates. Currently, the British economy is growing at a slower pace than the American one. The reason for this is the Fed's decisive action on key issues related to stimulus cuts and multiple rate hikes in 2022. As for the Bank of England, it is not planning any radical changes in its monetary policy in the near future. At the moment, the key interest rate of the Fed and the Central Bank of England is at the same level – 0.25%.

If the British regulator refrains from further tightening monetary policy and raising rates, then the pound's growth will be questionable. On the other hand, the Fed's hawkish actions are helping the US dollar's growth, which will continue in 2022. The multi-directional monetary strategies of the Fed and the Bank of England create prerequisites for a decline in the GBP/USD pair in the coming year.

The current superiority of the pound is explained by several factors, including the Bank of England's sudden increase in rates recorded in December 2021, and the refusal of the British authorities from new restrictive measures. According to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the new mutation of the Omicron coronavirus is much milder than other strains. Market participants expect a two-fold increase in rates by the Bank of England. It is possible that the rate will be increased by 15 basis points (bp) by the March meeting of the regulator. By the end of this year, experts do not exclude an additional increase. According to economists, the Bank of England will continue this strategy in 2023.

Economic activity in the UK has remained stable for several months. According to the latest PMI reports, production in the country in December 2021 grew at a faster pace than expected. This inspires the markets with optimism and allows them to make positive forecasts. During the reporting period, the number of jobs fell slightly, but this was offset by an increase in the volume of new orders and an increase in production. Analysts' concern was caused by a significant increase in prices, increasing fears about a new round of inflation.

The current turmoil did not stop the pound's rally, which peaked at the level of 1.4212 in May last year. However, it was brought down by the unexpected decision of the Bank of England in December not to raise interest rates. Against this background, it declined to the lows of 2021 (1.3200), but later recovered. Currency strategists at DBS Bank expect the GBP/USD pair to remain in a low range of 1.2800-1.3300 this year.

The factors slowing down the rate hike by the regulator may be the problems associated with Brexit, as well as difficulties in the trade negotiations between London and Brussels. It is possible that if the negotiations fail, the British government will apply Article 16 and start a trade war with the EU. The implementation of such a scenario would jeopardize the stability of the British economy and national currency. However, analysts hope to reach a compromise in the course of mutually beneficial trade cooperation.

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Dollar still dominates other major currencies

Europe's single currency cannot outperform the US dollar. This was stated by Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank. One of the main reasons is that the European regulator is the most static central bank in the world. Thus, the European Union's benchmark interest rate has remained at zero for quite some time, i.e. has not changed since March 2016. Furthermore, ECB head Christine Lagarde sees no reason to raise interest rates in 2022.

According to Eurostat, Euro area annual inflation rose to 4.9% in November, the highest in 25 years. Jakobsen believes that the EU economy can grow faster than the economies of other countries or show a current account surplus. The surplus is falling due to obvious difficulties in the services sector. This also applies to Germany, the eurozone's largest economy.

As for the US dollar, according to the SWIFT, it was still able to hold onto its position as the main currency in the international settlement ranking in November. Thus, the US dollar gained 39.16%. That means it rose by 1.53% in 12 months. It has strengthened due to the widening interest rate gap as well as inflation dynamics in the US compared to other major markets such as Japan and Europe.

The euro was clearly underperforming. It gained 37.66%, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.22%. Among the leaders were the British pound, Japanese yen, and Chinese renminbi.

A monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve, which is expected by analysts in March, will give the dollar the strongest support, making it extremely difficult for most currencies to rise against the US dollar in the coming months.

It is the interest rate differential, not the coronavirus, that will determine sentiment in the major currency markets in the near future. The vast majority of analysts polled by Reuters are confident that fluctuations in the currency markets will become noticeably greater over the next three months. Notably, this confidence applies not only to the currencies of the major markets but also to emerging market currencies.

After an interest rate hike already in the first month of spring, the US regulator is expected to start reducing its assets. The dollar could then feel superior to the other major currencies. By the way, financial markets expect at least three rate hikes in the US this year.

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US shares mixed at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45%

At the close in New York, the Dow Jones shed 0.45%, the S&P 500 shed 0.14% and the NASDAQ Composite shed 0.05%.

In the leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones at the end of today's trading were shares of Intel Corporation, which rose in price by 1.77 points (3.31%), to close at 55.21. Merck & Company Inc added 2.58% or 2.07 points to end trade at 82.37. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated rose 1.40% or 6.40 points to end at 465.00.

The biggest losers were Nike Inc, which fell 4.16% or 6.53 points to end the session at 150.44. Boeing Co shares were up 2.87% or 6.19 points to end at 209.31, while Visa Inc Class A was down 2.30% or 4.99 points to 211. , 97.

The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Moderna Inc, which rose in price by 9.28% to the level of 233.70, Humana Inc, which gained 6.06%, to close at 385.18, as well as shares Hologic Inc, which were up 4.47% to end at 73.45.

The biggest losers were Take-Two Interactive Software Inc, which fell 13.13% to close at 142.99. Cardinal Health Inc shed 5.92% to end the session at 51.03. Estee Lauder Companies Inc was down 5.36% to 335.89.

The top gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite index at the end of today's trading were shares of Bone Biologics Corp, which rose 57.14% to reach 5.39, Zynga Inc, which gained 40.67% to close at 8.44, and Molecular Partners AG ADR shares rose 30.22% to end at 21.50.

The biggest losers were TDH Holdings Inc, which fell 81.86% to close at 0.740. Kidpik Corp shares lost 27.47% and ended the session at 4.75. Rapid Micro Biosystems Inc was down 21.23% to 7.20.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that fell in price (2052) exceeded the number of those that closed in positive territory (1186), while the quotes of 158 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2,493 companies fell in price, 1,368 increased, and 206 remained at the level of the previous close.

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc fell to a 52-week low, down 13.13%, 21.61 points to trade at 142.99. TDH Holdings Inc fell to a 52-week low, down 81.86%, 3.340 points to trade at 0.740. Kidpik Corp's shares fell to historic lows, down 27.47%, 1.80 points, to close at 4.75. Molecular Partners AG ADR rose to all-time highs, up 30.22%, 4.99 points, to close at 21.50. Rapid Micro Biosystems Inc fell to historic lows, down 21.23%, 1.94 points to end at 7.20.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was up 3.41% to trade at 19.40.

Gold Futures for February delivery was up 0.21% or 3.85 to $ 1.801.25 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities, WTI crude for February delivery fell 0.62%, or 0.49, to $ 78.41 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for delivery in March were unchanged 0.00%, or 0.00, to trade at $ 81.02 a barrel.

Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD was up 0.03% to hit 1.1327, while USD / JPY was flat 0.00% to hit 115.20.

The US Dollar Index Futures was up 0.23% at 95.938.

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Did the Fed cause the US dollar to collapse?

The US dollar dropped after the Fed's statements about the duration of the normalization of monetary policy. During this process, the indicated currency risks losing its advantages as the main safe-haven currency.

On Wednesday, the US currency collapsed to its lowest level since November 2021. The main reason for this was the statements of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who allowed a gradual increase in interest rates amid the continuous high inflation in the United States. The regulator's management believes that it will take several months to make a decision to cut the central bank's balance sheet by $ 9 trillion.

In a similar situation, this currency found itself in a slight stupor state, trying to cope with the current losses. Powell's statements that the US economy "does not need aggressive monetary stimulus measures" exerted additional pressure. The central bank is ready to start normalizing monetary policy, but this process will take time. During the speech of the Fed chairman, the markets expected to find signals about the possible timing of the first rate hike. However, the situation remained unclear, as the head of the regulator stressed that the Fed did not focus on the timing of amendments to the monetary policy and did not make decisions on reducing the balance sheet.

The tension of the general background of the global financial market shocked the US dollar. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was in the range of 1.1373-1.1374. At the same time, the Euro currency has slightly risen since the close of the previous session, in which it was trading at the level of 1.1364.

Experts believe that the key factor influencing the US dollar's dynamics is risk appetite, which currently determines its state and the market. According to analysts, the Fed's "hawkish" position affects the US dollar only if risky sentiment weakens. Against the background of risk aversion, the US dollar usually grows, and with an increase in risk appetite, it falls, which happened this week.

The fact that the US currency did not react much to Friday's US employment report surprised market participants According to current records, the US economy has nearly full employment. Experts explain the dollar's "detachment" from macro statistics by the fact that it reacts to an increase in profitability only when risk sentiment sharply decreases. The US currency rises only during a liquidity crisis when the shares of borrowed funds in the stock markets are noticeably reduced.

The main topic for market participants was the Fed's actions related to the upcoming cut of stimulus measures and an increase in interest rates. It can be recalled that the federal funds rate has been increased by 15 basis points (bp) over the past four sessions. According to preliminary forecasts, four or more Fed rate hikes are expected this year. A similar development of events is allowed if inflation accelerates.

The next steps of the regulator will be more aggressive than expected – quantitative easing (QE) or a rate hike of more than 25 bp. After the rate increase, the Fed's balance sheet will begin to shrink, which will take about two years. The regulator is expected to withdraw $ 1.5 trillion of excess liquidity from the system to keep the global financial market afloat. The current situation weakens the US dollar, which resists negativity. The US dollar is supported by the fact that the markets have considered the tightening of the Fed's policy at current prices.

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US stock indicators rose on inflation data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 38.3 points (0.11%) to 36,290.32 points. Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 13.28 points (0.28%) - up to 4726.35 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 34.94 points (0.23%) to 15,188.39 points.

Papers of the pharmaceutical company Biogen Inc. fell by 6.7%. The U.S. government said Medicare will only cover the cost of Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm for early-stage patients enrolled in clinical trials. The share price of Eli Lilly & Co., which is developing a similar drug, fell 2.44%.

The cost of the health insurance company Humana Inc. rose by 0.92%. The company will launch a $1 billion share buyback as part of the $3 billion buyback program announced last February.

Meta Platforms Inc. (formerly Facebook) has appointed Tony Xu, head of food delivery service DoorDash Inc., to the company's board of directors. DoorDash shed 2.1%, while Meta lost 0.3%.

The manufacturer of surgical robots and systems Intuitive Surgical reported that revenue in October-December, according to preliminary data, reached nearly $1.55 billion, which is 17% higher than the same period in 2020. However, the company's share price fell 1.5%.

Bank Jefferies Financial Group Inc. in the 4th quarter of 2021 recorded revenue of $1.81 billion, which is 3% less than in the same period last year. The indicator also turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts, who estimated it at $1.9 billion. Quotes of the bank's papers fell by 9.3%.

Satellite provider Dish Network Corp. rose by 2.8%. The New York Post, citing informed sources, said the company is in talks to merge with DirectTV.

Cost of Caterpillar Inc. rose by 1.1%. Analysts at UBS Bank increased the target price of the company's shares to $250 from $235 per share.

Consumer prices (CPI) in the United States soared 7% last month compared to the same month in 2020, according to data from the country's Department of Labor. The pace of growth has become the highest in 40 years - since June 1982.

Inflation accelerated from 6.8% in November and was in line with analysts' forecasts.

Capitol Securities Management economist Kent Engelk noted that despite the fact that the indices ended trading below the highs of the session, the market showed signs of relief, as inflation was in line with forecasts.

According to experts from RBC Capital Markets, inflation will continue to accelerate in early 2022, stabilize and begin to slow down in the second quarter, they believe. But the Fed will most likely feel pressure from rising prices and will be forced to make a decision to raise (rates) already at a meeting in March.

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