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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 05 - 09, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the previous week, the majority of analysts (60%), supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and the pair reached the set goal as early as Wednesday, June 30. But the dollar did not stop there and its DXY index renewed a three-month high on Friday, July 02, peaking at 92.699.
The growth of the American currency was due to the expectation that the pace of the US economic recovery will force the Fed to accelerate plans to reduce the programs of financial and credit stimulus (QE). And the market expected the strong labor market data, which was due out in mid-Friday, to push the dollar even higher.
According to the Department of Labor, the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sectors in the United States (Nonfarm Payrolls) actually turned out to be higher than the forecast by 150 thousand: 850 thousand instead of the estimated 700 thousand. The EUR/USD pair fell further downward, however, having reached the level of 1.1805, it unexpectedly turned around and soared to the north no less rapidly. The reason was the second published indicator: according to forecasts, the unemployment rate should have decreased from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
This result showed a weak recovery in the US labor market, investors' expectations regarding the imminent tightening of the Fed's monetary policy weakened, and this supported the risk sentiment. The Dow Jones index went up, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite renewed all-time highs once again. The DXY fell to 92.24 and EUR/USD closed the weekly session at 1.1863;

- GBP/USD. Concerns about the Delta COVID-19 strain are putting a lot of pressure on the pound sterling. Investors were not pleased with the data on the UK GDP for Q1, which turned out to be worse than the forecast (minus 1.6% versus minus 1.5%).
With regard to inflation, in his speech on Thursday July 1, the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey stressed that its high rates are temporary, as the British economy returns to the average and slows down the growth rate. This announcement pushed the pound further down. And if not for the disappointing US unemployment data, the GBP/USD pair would probably have tested the 1.3670 support. In reality, its fall was stopped at the 1.3730 horizon, and the last chord of the week sounded 100 points higher, at 1.3830;

- USD / JPY. the Bank of Japan published the value of the Tankan index for Q2 of this year on July 1. This index reflects the general business conditions for large companies in the country. A reading above 0 is considered to be a positive factor for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is considered negative. The index was projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021. Tankan did grow, though not to 15, but to 14. But neither its growth nor its value have had virtually any impact on the USD/JPY pair. As it was not strongly influenced by the decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The pair basically just copied what was happening with the DXY index. The dollar grew, and the pair also grew, breaking through the important resistance of 111.00 and finding itself at a height of 111.65 - very close with the high of March 24, 2020 - 111.70. Then the dollar collapsed, and so did the pair. True, it was able to stay above the horizon at 111.00 and finished at 111.05;

- cryptocurrencies. The forecast, which was given seven days ago, said that "with a high degree of probability, the fight between bulls and bears in the $30,000 area will continue." This is exactly what happened. The local bottom was reached at $30,200. Then the bulls managed to raise the BTC/USD pair to $36,590, but they could not keep it above the psychologically important level of $36,000, and the price of bitcoin dropped to $32,700 on Friday, July 02.
The lack of significant victories on both sides was facilitated by a fairly calm news background. We list just a few, more or less noticeable, of these news stories:
- There was a rumor that Paraguay could be the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. However, then it was clarified that the purpose of the bill, which will be presented to Parliament on July 14, is completely different and is to regulate digital assets, and not to turn bitcoin into a national currency.
- The panic after the mining ban in China is gradually subsiding. In China itself, authorities have banned energy companies from supplying electricity to miners. In theory, this should have brought the hash rate down to zero in the country. However, some enterprising crypto miners are trying to continue their business using small private hydroelectric power plants. Another part of mining companies migrates - some to the USA, and some, for example, to Kazakhstan. Against this background, the President of Kazakhstan signed a law on the introduction of additional payments for electricity when mining cryptocurrencies, which may negatively affect the country's attractiveness for this industry.
- Ark Invest, managed by Katie Wood, is the ninth company to apply to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
- According to the analytical service Chainalysis, the number of crypto investors in India has exceeded 15 million, and investments in cryptocurrency over the past year have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion, which means an increase of 20,000%.
- A veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest holders of BTC, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu, drowned in Costa Rica. He was known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world." The crypto community called him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and the "sleeping giant" who "could at one moment bring bitcoin to virtually zero and hold the price for some time." The actual number of coins owned by Popescu could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC, making him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now, this huge number of bitcoins seems to have disappeared forever.
And a few words about Elon Musk (we can't do without him!). Perhaps the billionaire has already played enough with bitcoin and Dogecoin, and now he has a new hobby - BabyDoge. After his tweet with three repeated unpretentious text "Baby Doge, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, ...", the value of this coin has increased by 500% in two weeks, and the trading volume has tripled. It is still unknown whether Musk himself made money on such a "pump".
As for the crypto market as a whole, unlike BabyDoge, its capitalization increased very slightly over the week: from $1.336 trillion to $1.381 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell from 47.05% to 45.52%, and the BTC Crypto Fear & Greed Index found itself in the Extreme Fear zone once again, at around 21 points.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The data on inflation and consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone are not the most encouraging. Tourism revenues are falling, due to the Delta strain of the coronavirus and the divorce from the UK. In general, optimism about the recovery of the European economy is declining.
As for the United States, Congress has raised its forecasts for 2021 both on the growth of inflation - from 1.7% to 2.8%, and on the growth of the country's economy - from 3.7% to 7.4%. The IMF expects US GDP to grow by 7%, the fastest pace since 1984. As for the interest rate, according to the IMF experts, the Fed will raise it either at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker suggests starting to wind down the Asset Purchase Program (QE) as early as this year. And the faster that happens, the sooner the interest rate will be raised in 2022.
The Fed is constantly saying that it will raise the interest rate in full employment only. And if the labour market data released on July 02 were positive, it would have sent EUR/USD to the March 31 lows of 1.1700. However, instead of falling, the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 5.9% in June, casting doubt on the continuation of the pair's downtrend.
Before the release of unemployment data, 70% of experts sided with the bears. Now the situation has changed, and 65% expect the pair to grow during July. The same applies to indicators: 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1 were colored red until mid-Friday July 02. But by the time the markets closed, the color scheme on H4 had changed: some of the indicators turned into neutral grey, and some even turned green.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1975, then 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1765.
The economic calendar for the coming week looks rather modest. It highlights Tuesday, July 06, when the Eurozone retail sales data and the ISM business activity index for the US services sector will be released;

- GBP/USD. There is no unity in inflation estimates in the ranks of the Bank of England's senior management. Suffice to listen to the soothing statements of the head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the exact opposite - of the chief economist Andy Haldane, who is greatly alarmed by inflationary risks. We have already said in the first part of the review that thanks to Bailey's position, the pound came under pressure, and its quotes were “saved” from a further fall by the increased unemployment in the US. Otherwise, the pound would have continued its decline as a pair with the euro.
The GBP/USD forecast, as with EUR/USD, changed the vector dramatically at the very end of the past week as well. If before the US unemployment data was published, 60% of analysts had expected the UK currency to weaken further, 75% vote for the growth of the pair during the month. Technical analysis readings on H4 have also mixed, although 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still facing south. Graphic analysis on H4 indicates the pair's growth to 1.3900, and D1 shows its movement during the week in the range 1.3730-1.3870.
Support levels are 1.3800, 1.3730 and 1.3670, resistance - 1.3900, 1.4000, then the zone 1.4100-1.4165;
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- USD/JPY. The indicators for this pair are almost no different from those of their EUR/USD and GBP/USD counterparts. (Only in this case, their color changes from red to green). But the opinion of experts here turned out to be more constant, it just changed quantitatively: if 55% had voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decrease in the pair, then their number increased to 75%. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways movement of the pair along the support/resistance line of 111.00, on D1 it forecasts first a decline to 110.40, and then an increase above the high of March 24, 2020, at 111.70.
The targets of the bears are the zones 109.75-110.100 and 108.00-108.55. The bulls, subject to taking the height of 111.70, will seek to raise the pair to the high of February 20, 2020, 112.25;

- cryptocurrencies. According to a report by cryptanalytics company Glassnode, institutional demand for bitcoin is declining. One of the main factors supporting the upward trend in BTC was the influx of institutional investments into the GBTC Grayscale trust fund. Glassnode analysts note that declining GBTC premiums, net outflows from ETFs, and stagnating Coinbase balance sheets indicate that demand for the main cryptocurrency from institutions remains weak.
Despite this, many of the experts are optimistic about the current situation. According to JPMorgan analysts, "the cryptocurrency market is not yet quite healthy; however, the healing process has already begun." Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse. For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market is described by JPMorgan strategists as a “positive factor.” However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult."
Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a number of negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. “But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,” the expert said. And he adds that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal.
Jason Urban, co-head of trading at Galaxy Digital, is waiting for the market to turn north as well. He notes that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC. According to the specialist, “we will soon see an update to the historical high,” and the quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year.
Former Gyft CEO and Civic project co-founder Vinny Lingham also spoke out. He was once nicknamed "the oracle" for the fact that he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.
Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, “would I never choose the stinking fiat”, and preferred bitcoin. Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. “This is an asset that has international value and is traded globally with incredible liquidity. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period."
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.
Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of NBC's Mad Money show Jim Kramer is of the opposite opinion. He has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. “I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,” he claimed. And he explained that he gave preference to this altcoin, since Ethereum is much more useful for people than the main cryptocurrency.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews of the Week

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- CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.

- More than a thousand companies were affected by the cyberattack on the American software developer Kaseya. The operators of the REvil ransomware virus, who are being linked to Russia, are allegedly behind the hack. The company initially said that only a small group of its customers were affected by the hackers' actions, but the scale of those affected by the attack was increasing as the investigation progressed.
Cybersecurity experts assumed immediately that the hacker group REvil was behind the attack. Huntress Labs later discovered a $70 million ransom demand in bitcoin on a darknet hacker site for decrypting the files of all victims.
REvil (also known as Sodinokibi) is often associated with Russia due to the fact that they do not attack Russian organizations or enterprises in the countries of the former USSR and often publish messages in Russian.

- JP Morgan Bank analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in an interview with CNBC that investors have begun to shift funds from other digital assets to bitcoin over the past few weeks. This reversed the trend that began in April, when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins. "The flow of funds, even to Ethereum, has noticeably decreased over the past two to three weeks, while the outflow of funds from bitcoins has slowed down." This could mean that the bear market for bitcoin is likely coming to an end.
JP Morgan believes that the value of bitcoin itself is more important for institutional investors than its volatility. And further integration of the world of institutional companies into bitcoin will lead to a “normalization” of cryptocurrency No.1 volatility, according to Panigirtsoglou.

- The Crypto Head cryptocurrency platform rated the United States as the country most prepared for the massive introduction of digital assets. When compiling a ranking of 76 countries, the platform's specialists took into account: number of thematic Google searches, number of cryptocurrency ATMs installed, the level of legalization of cryptocurrencies by tax and financial laws.
The USA received a score of 7.13 points out of possible 10. Cyprus and Singapore are next in the ranking with 6.47 and 6.3 respectively. Rounding out the top five are Hong Kong and the United Kingdom.

- Brazil's Federal Police liquidated Bitcoin Banco Group, whose damage for 7,000 citizens exceeded $300 million. Its leader, Claudio Oliveira, known as the "King of Bitcoin", has been arrested.
During the 2017 bull market, the Bitcoin Banco Group promised clients “incredible profits”. In late 2019, the firm reported the disappearance of 7000 BTC and filed for court recovery. This document involves signing an agreement with the authorities to reorganize activities to avoid bankruptcy. However, the investigation, which lasted three years, revealed that employees of the organization had been systematically transferring client funds into Oliveira's personal accounts.

- Bitcoin.org, a popular information resource, allegedly created by Satoshi Nakamoto himself, underwent an "absolutely massive DDoS attack." The hackers who attacked the site are known to have demanded a ransom in bitcoins. Now Bitcoin.org is already operating normally. However, it is not known how the site operator reacted to the blackmail, or whether it paid the ransom to cyber criminals.

- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. Using a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, he concluded that the next six months would either prove that the model worked for bitcoin, or it would prove it useless.
S2F has traditionally been applied to commodities such as gold and silver. PlanB used it to predict if bitcoin could surpass the $288,000 level. And now he has reported that BTC's bearish price move defies his calculations. According to PlanB, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether or not BTC will actually hit the six-digit range by the end of the bull race.

- Morning Brew invited subscribers to share professional fears via Twitter. The answers had to be only four words. "Elon Musk tweeted something," - this is the fear of crypto investors, described by manager Devin Marty, hinting that the statements of the billionaire have a strong impact on the quotes of digital assets. These four words have received the most likes. At the same time, some users felt that if messages on Twitter increase the volatility of an asset, then this asset cannot be considered "serious".
The fact that Elon Musk's remarks can move the market is confirmed by a survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.

- US Senator Cynthia Lummis wants Americans to use cryptocurrency to diversify their retirement savings. Ms. Legislator is concerned about 100%-dollar retirement plans and encourages people to use bitcoins to avoid "keeping all their eggs in one basket." Cynthia Lummis herself now has about 5 BTC and when she bought the cryptocurrency for the first time, the price was $330.
The senator suggested that US pension funds also diversify their long-term portfolios with bitcoin, calling it a "good store of value." Although she personally prefers BTC, she believes that Ethereum is also a promising project.

- A number of analysts have interpreted the current situation in the bitcoin market as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method, which means that the current low of $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (“Spring”), and a stepwise increase should be expected in the future.
Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance. In addition, some experts attach particular importance to overcoming the downtrend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart.
Michael van de Poppe, trader of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, also praised the developments in the crypto market. He noted that the consolidation continues and urged traders to be patient and wait for a breakout from the current price range. It is quite obvious that the famous trader expects a break up.

- Michael Novogratz, founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, believes in the potential of Ethereum. He stated in a recent interview that this altcoin is capable of overshadowing bitcoin. Although BTC has become popular as a store of value, the ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
As for the clients of his own bank, Novogratz sees that there is no real worries about the collapse of the crypto industry, as investors understand that changes in the financial world are just beginning.

- Insiders are reporting that the George Soros Foundation, formerly known as the adversary of cryptocurrencies, will enter this market. New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), the billionaire-sponsored institutional investor platform, has previously announced it is opening up access to cryptocurrency to clients of hundreds of US banks. And now the media, citing two insider sources, are spreading information that Dawn Fitzpatrick, the investment director of Soros Fund Management, after studying the market, allowed managers to trade cryptocurrency. Fitzpatrick's team also intends to invest in companies working with blockchain technology. However, there has been no official statement on this matter yet.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
June 2021 Results: Three NordFX Traders' Profits Exceed $445,000


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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in June 2021. The services of social trading, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

By a huge margin, the best result of the month was shown by a client from India, account No. 1566XXX, with a profit of 329,320 USD, which was obtained thanks to numerous transactions in a variety of pairs: GBP/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD, GBP/CHF, etc.

The second ranking of most successful traders was a NordFX client from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who used some of the most popular instruments, bitcoin (BTC/USD) and gold (XAU/USD) and generated revenue of 74,865 USD. It should be noted that the profit of this trader looked very impressive in May as well, 53,207 USD.

The TOP-3 of June is closed by a trader from China (account No.1397XXX) with a result of 41,862 USD, obtained through operations with the British pound (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs).

In the CopyTrading service, a young account Fire_1 can be noted among signal providers. It has existed for only a month, and the profit on it has been 414% during this time with a maximum drawdown of 55%.

Those investors who prefer less aggressive, but also less risky trading can pay attention to the PAMM account KennyFXPRO-The­ _Multi_3000_EA. It has been working for 160 days, and it has shown an increase of 28% during this period with a drawdown of less than 15%. The profit is certainly not that great, but it is still many times higher than the interest on bank deposits.

Commissions of NordFX IB partners in June were as follows:
- the largest commission, 32,079 USD, was credited to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from Vietnam, account No.1401ХХХ, who received 7,959 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No. 1522ХХХ, who received 5,899 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 12 - 16, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by the majority (65%) of experts, the dollar continued to weaken at the beginning of the week, and the EUR/USD pair went up. Disappointing data from the US labour market, released on July 02, affected the dollar. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate was supposed to fall from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
The US business activity indicators released on Tuesday July 6 saved the American currency from further falling. And although the ISM index in the services sector fell to 60.1 in June (from a record 64 in May), this did not frighten investors, as a result above 50 is seen as positive and is in favor of the dollar. This is exactly what happened: having reached the height of 1.1895, the EUR/USD pair reversed and went down, reaching the local level at 1.1780 on Wednesday, July 07.
The minutes of the June meeting of the FRS, published at the end of the same day, showed that although curtailing financial and credit stimulation (QE) programs was discussed at it, it did not come to specific decisions. The regulator will still not rush to tighten monetary policy, relying only on inflation indicators, and will wait for the full recovery of the labor market. And on that end, as mentioned above, the indicators are not particularly optimistic at the moment, indicating a slowdown in the American economy.
The next day, Thursday, July 8, was the day when the euro was able to win back losses, not only because of the dovish position of the Fed, but also thanks to the publication of a new inflation target by the European Central Bank. Previously, the goal was to keep inflation “below but near 2%.” Now, the official target level allows for exceeding or lagging the indicator at certain points in time. At the same time, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde stressed that her bank will not copy the new strategy of the Fed and will not specifically stimulate the growth of consumer prices in order to reach the average.
The growth of the European currency and a decrease in global risk appetite caused by the spread of the delta strains of coronavirus helped. Carry traders began to close positions open on high-interest currencies in developing countries and return to fund currencies such as EUR and JPY.
As a result of all the fluctuations and changes in trends, the five-day total can be considered close to zero, the EUR/USD pair ended the weekly session almost the same as it started ¬at 1.1877;

- GBP/USD. The dynamics of the British pound against the dollar last week followed the movements of its European counterpart. The prediction given by the graphical analysis proved to be the most accurate, it indicated first the GBP/USD growth to 1.3870-1.3900 and then its lateral movement in 1.3730-1.3870 channel. In reality, adjusted for a few points, that's what happened. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded near the upper boundary of the channel, at 1.3890;

- USD/JPY. The competition over which currency is the best refuge from financial storms continues. And the yen won it with a clear advantage last week, having outperformed the dollar by 100 points. As predicted by the vast majority of experts (75%), the pair moved purposefully south for the entire first half of the week, recording a local low on the horizon of 109.50 on July 07. At one point, thanks to flight from stock market of investors and falling US government bond yields, its superiority was as much as 150 points.
Then, against the backdrop of the recovery in the yield of US Treasuries to 1.3433%, the dollar was able to win back some losses, and the pair finished at 110.10;

- cryptocurrencies. A poll by Morning Brew found that what retail crypto investors fear most is... Elon Musk's tweets. This was confirmed by another survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.
To be sure, his tweets, like bans on cryptocurrency transactions in China, triggered the collapse, which saw bitcoin collapse from a height of $64,600 to $30,000. However, many experts believe that the main reason for what happened is the use of leverage in the crypto market, otherwise margin trading, which allows traders to open large positions with little funds. And it was the avalanche-like closing of such positions that led to a drop in quotations and a decrease of more than 45% in the total capitalization of the crypto market.
As for the Chinese authorities, they continue to squeeze virtual currencies out of the country. The People's Bank of China said bitcoin and stablecoins pose a threat to financial security and social stability and has banned the provision of a range of services to companies associated with the market, including software development, rental of premises and marketing services.
At the moment, large capital is watching the migration process of miners from the PRC. And the country in which they will resume their work is of particular interest. If it's going to be the US, it's likely to bolster the industry's image in the eyes of institutionals. Especially since Crypto Head estimates that of 76 countries, the United States is the best prepared for mass adoption of digital assets. However, it is believed that miners fear the US authorities no less than the Chinese. And therefore, they can choose the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc., where there are territories with a cold climate and access to relatively cheap energy resources. Although not everything is so smooth here. For example, as we wrote, Kazakhstan had already passed a law on additional energy charges for cryptocurrencies in anticipation of miners.
Note that due to the bans introduced in China, the hash rate in the blockchain fell by almost 50%. This led to major changes in the complexity of the algorithm, and an equally serious increase in the profits of the remaining miners. They are now earning income, about the same as at BTC's $60,000 cost.
As for investors, they have been watching the main cryptocurrency trying to rise above the resistance of $ 36,000 for the third week. Another attempt by the bulls last week was unsuccessful again, and the BTC/USD pair was trading in the $32,500-33,500 zone by Friday night July 09.
The total crypto market capitalization has changed insignificantly over the week: from $1.358 trillion to $1.370 trillion. That being said, there has been a small flow of funds from altcoins (including ethereum) to bitcoin over the past few days. JP Morgan’s analyst Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou also noted this in an interview with CNBC. This move has reversed a trend that began in April when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins and could mean that the bear market for BTC is coming to an end. But it is clearly premature to talk about any serious progress. This is confirmed by quotes, capitalization volumes, and readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is still in the Extreme Fear zone, having dropped by 1 point over the week, from 21 to 20.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It seems that the epidemiological situation associated with the spread of new strains of COVID-19 is coming to the fore again. Risk cravings are falling and investors, fearing a repeat of last year's situation, are once again beginning to gravitate towards protective assets. Stock indices - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S & P500 - stopped growing, going into a sideways trend. And impressive black candles appeared on their daily charts. In parallel, demand for U.S. Treasury liabilities rose: the yield on Treasuries fell to a new multi-month low, to 1.25%.
Despite the worsening epidemiological situation, the European Commission has raised its forecast for GDP growth in the Eurozone from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2021. The growth of economic activity should be influenced by the softening of quarantine measures (if it continues, of course) and the mass vaccination of the population. GDP is expected to return to pre-crisis levels as early as Q4 of this year, a quarter earlier than forecast, and this could prompt the ECB to start winding down QE programmes more quickly.
But if European inflation and GDP are growing by 2% and 4.8%, then the growth of similar American indicators is 5% and 7%, respectively. And who will start tightening monetary policy earlier, we wonder? Yes, the Fed has taken a wait-and-see, almost dovish position. But there are not so many hawks among the ECB's leadership, and its current position is more like a compromise between supporters of monetary expansion and their opponents.
Experts’ opinion on the EUR/USD pair's immediate future can also be considered a compromise, with 40% in favour of growth, 45% in favour of falling, and 15% for continuing the side trend. At the same time, the number of supporters of a weaker dollar and a stronger euro rises to 60% when you move to the forecast by the end of summer.
Among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, 70% are colored green, 30% - red. On D1, the situation is different: 70% of trend indicators look down, and the oscillator readings are a mixture of red, green and neutral gray. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways trend within the 1.1780-1.1900 channel.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1900, then 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1780.
The following events can be noted in the economic calendar for the coming week. German and US consumer market data will be released on Tuesday July 13. US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and another set of US consumer data, including retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will close the working week on Friday July 16;

- GBP/USD. The UK's GDP, trade and industrial production figures did not reach forecast values. And this will put some pressure on the pound. But despite this, 60% of analysts vote on the GBP/USD pair's move north.
It finished the last week, rising to the 1.3900 zone. The mid-term chart clearly shows that this level is in the central part of the 1.3700-1.4000 channel. Therefore, the pair has many chances to continue the upward movement to its upper border.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the British currency will not be able to break through the resistance of 1.3900 so far, including due to a new wave of COVID-19 spread in the country.
The indicators' readings are almost completely consistent with their readings for EUR/USD. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be known on Wednesday 14 July, which is projected to rise from 2.1% to 2.2 per cent. And the next day, a portion of data on the state of the UK labour market, including claims for unemployment benefits and the country's unemployment rate, awaits us. Recall that a rise in the same indicator in the US hit the dollar on the first Friday in July. For the United Kingdom, it is expected to remain flat at 4.7%;
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- USD/JPY. It is almost impossible to bring the indicator readings for this pair to any denominator, neither on H4, nor on D1. Will it continue its upward trend, which began in early January? Will it be able to gain a foothold above 111.00? A new impetus to this movement was given after the correction on April 26, and only now the first hint of a trend breakdown and a breakout of the lower border of this channel has appeared.
We spoke above about the reasons for the strengthening of the yen last week. However, it is not possible to catch investor sentiment, as well as indicators, for the week ahead. The experts' voices are almost equally divided: 30% side with the bulls, 40% side with the bears, and 40% just shrug their shoulders.
Graphical analysis on D1 first indicates a sideways movement of the USD/JPY pair in the 109.50-111.00 trading range, and only then does it rule out the continuation of the uptrend and its breakout to 112.00.
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the traditional subsequent press conference of its management may be of some interest the week ahead. Both of these events are scheduled for Friday July 16. And most likely, there will be no surprises for us, and Japan will once again reaffirm its title as an ultra-quiet haven for investors;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's daily trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since early 2021, according to analyst firm Arcane Research. The BTC/USD pair is trying unsuccessfully to climb above the $36,000 horizon for the third week in a row. The fact that it has been trading near local lows since the end of May, of course, scares investors. A dip below the current low of $28,800 could lead to another massive sell-off and a new crypto winter.
At the same time, a number of experts interpret the current situation as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method. This means that $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (“Spring”), and a stepwise growth should be expected in the future. Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance.
- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. This expert is known for applying to bitcoin the stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, previously traditionally applied to commodities such as gold and silver. According to PlanB's calculations, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether, by the end of the bull race, BTC will actually be able to reach the six-digit range and, as a result, reach the $288,000 mark.
It should be noted that the forecasts of the institutions look much more modest. For example, CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.
While assessing altcoin prospects, many experts, including Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank founder Michael Novogratz, say that Ethereum may well weaken bitcoin in the future and become the foundation for pricing in the market. BTC became popular as a means of saving. But if you sum up the number of projects and directions working on the ETH blockchain, the advantage of Ethereum becomes obvious. Stablecoins, De-Fi, and NFT tokens work on its blockchain. The ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
Experts from Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment banks, also believe that today ethereum is the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential that can overtake bitcoin. But at the same time, the bank's experts are also confident that neither bitcoin, nor ethereum, nor any other cryptocurrency will overtake gold in popularity in the near future. Because of its high volatility, digital assets cannot be accepted as a safe haven by investors, and therefore lose out in direct competition with this precious metal.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews of the Week

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- Increased regulatory oversight could benefit the cryptocurrency industry, said Jihan Wu, billionaire and co-founder of Bitmain. In his view, regulation “cuts out attackers” and improves the industry's reputation in a rapid growth environment.
He also suggested that more active interaction of representatives of the cryptocurrency industry with the authorities could bring positive results as well. The billionaire cited Singapore, where one of his companies is based, as an example. According to Wu, the government of this country is taking a “reasonable” stance on digital assets, allowing Singapore to become a “hub for crypto innovation”.

- Bitcoin ransomware received more than $33 million in cryptocurrency in 2021, according to Ransomwhere data. 2This cybersecurity-focused service collects ransomware attacks and tracks payments from affected users to ransomware.
According to Ransomwhere, REvil (Sodinokibi) from the eponymous hacker group has become the largest ransomware in 2021. Its victims paid the extortionists over $11.3 million. In second place is Netwalker (Mailto), whose developers have received more than $5.7 million. The amount of cumulative damage could grow significantly if the REvil group receives the $70 million they demanded from victims in early July.

- Galaxy Digital cryptobank founder Mike Novogratz said in a commentary on CNBC that the US cryptocurrency community has taken a leading position in the bear market, whose origins lie in Asia. “We see Asia selling it [bitcoin] and the US buying it back. China has declared war on the crypto industry as part of the broader Cold War we are getting into."
Earlier, Novogratz called the exodus of miners from China a “big plus,” and said that the PRC's repressive policies would not prevent the development of the crypto industry.

- Albany Engineering Corp's hydroelectric plant, located in New York, USA, provides a profit margin on bitcoin mining three times higher than on the sale of energy. The hydroelectric power station was built in 1897, almost 125 years ago, and it is one of the oldest operating renewable energy facilities.
According to the top managers of the plant, a years-long litigation with the distribution network regarding tariffs has forced the company to consider alternative sources of revenue. True, the management doubts the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency, so translates coins into dollars immediately as they come in.

- As a result of an operation carried out by the New Zealand police, attackers... stole $45,000 worth of cryptocurrency from its bitcoin wallet. According to the New Zealand Herald, law enforcement officers conducted an online investigation into money laundering but fell victim to cyber scams themselves as a result.
The cryptocurrency was acquired in 2020 and was intended for “controlled purchasing”. But something went wrong, and the police lost control over the course of this special operation. Two internal investigations have been conducted into the theft, but no breaches of standard procedures have been identified.

- Legendary investor Bill Miller, in an interview with Market Insider, called bitcoin the best asset for protecting against inflation. The main cryptocurrency emerged in response to the 2008 crisis to be free from government control and manipulation, Miller explained. Also, the investor agrees with the view that bitcoin is digital gold because it is more convenient to use than any precious metal. As for the high volatility of digital assets, Miller believes this is the price that needs to be paid for the benefits.
Bill Miller's Miller Value Partners fund became one of the best in hedge fund history in 2019, with a return of 119%. The investor started purchasing bitcoins a few years ago, when they cost $300 per coin. Much of the fund's capital was earned from the growth in the value of the first cryptocurrency.

- On July 12, two transactions were recorded to transfer 740 bitcoins, which were motionless on the wallet of a certain holder since May 2012. It was reported by analytical service Whale Alert. Nine years ago, the value of these coins was $3.7k. (at $5 per BTC), and $26.1 million at the time of the transaction. That is, the value of digital coins has increased 7000 times over 9 years.
A similar move was recorded in February 2021. Then a large bitcoin holder transferred 100 coins to other addresses, which had been in his wallet without moving since June 2010. Their total cost was only about $8, and it reached $5 million at the time of the transaction: the price increased 622,000 times over 11 years.

- Bitcoin is ready for a major price movement, says analyst Will Clemente. He published a chart in his Twitter (136 thousand subscribers) with an indicator, which speaks of a possible imminent exit of the price of the first cryptocurrency from a narrow range.
As to the direction of the bitcoin rate, Clemente wrote that he was optimistic. According to the analyst, the market is now in the accumulation stage, and large players continue to actively buy the first cryptocurrency. "Whale" stocks increased by 65,429 BTC just last week. According to Clemente, there may be a shortage of supply of the main cryptocurrency in the near future, since large players often acquire assets for long-term purposes.
Clemente also stressed that the growth in the number of cryptocurrency users continues. Whereas their number usually decreases after the peak in prices. And this is also an argument in favor of the upcoming growth of BTC.

- Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak called bitcoin "the most amazing mathematical miracle," according to El Sol de Mexico. He also believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is more expensive than gold, since its emission is limited.
Wozniak has been a staunch supporter of bitcoin for years. He even stated in June 2018 that he sees BTC as the single world currency and believes in its longevity. However, the 70-year-old tech entrepreneur himself does not personally invest in bitcoin, and launched his own crypto project called Efforce a few months ago.

- Bitcoin has reached a level where it can resume the rally. This opinion is shared by Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, the cryptocurrency is ready to resume growth towards $100,000. "Bitcoin is poised to return to a bullish trend in the second half of the year, and crude oil is ready to resume a bearish trend," McGlone wrote on Twitter.
The expert is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will "have serious macroeconomic consequences" this time. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time McGlone predicts a sharp rise in digital assets. For example, he announced in early February that the volatility of bitcoin can increase the gap between its price and gold "hundreds of times."

- According to Reuters, the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (South Korea) uses... faeces to generate electricity. Students are paid Ggool digital currency for each toilet visit.
One of the professors of the institute developed an environmentally friendly toilet BeeVi. It is connected to a laboratory that uses excreta to produce biogas. According to the scientist's calculations, a person produces about 500 grams of feces every day, which can be converted into 50 liters of methane. This amount of gas generates 0.5 kW of electricity, which is equal to the cost of a car to cover a distance of 1.2 km.
The science Initiative brings students up to 10 Ggool per day. The coin is accepted as payment in shops on campus. And the energy produced with the help of students powers a number of devices on the territory of the institute, including a boiler.

- British IT engineer James Howells threw a 7.5K BTC hard drive into the trash eight years ago, messing it up with another device. He then asked local authorities for permission to excavate a local dump to find his property, but was refused. Now Howells came up with a new search plan.
According to his calculations, he will need at least 12 months for the operation. This will be a "large-scale search," the engineer claims, which will not use "buckets and shovels" but the most modern technology. “We have a system with multiple conveyor belts, X-ray scanners and artificial intelligence that is trained to recognize objects that are similar in size and density to a hard drive,” Howells explained.
All of this will require a lot of financial investment, but one of the hedge funds has promised to cover all equipment costs in exchange for a share of bitcoins that can be found in the landfill. It is expected that the researchers will have to sort through 300-400 thousand tons of waste. The cost of 7,500 BTC is about $246,000,000 at the time of this writing.


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Stan NordFX
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  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 19 - 23, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Macroeconomic data continued to arrive last week, indicating a recovery in the US economy and labor market. Inflation figures released on Tuesday July 13 were well above forecasts. ?he consumer price index increased by 0.9% ?n June, and by 5.4% and on an annualized basis, which is the highest growth rate since 2008. The core index, which excludes energy and food prices, has posted record growth since 1991, at 4.5% year on year.
The number of primary claims for jobless benefits dropped by 26,000 to 360,000 from July 04 to 10. This is the lowest since March 20, when the coronavirus pandemic struck the economy first. Earlier this month, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the number of jobs in the country increased over the past month by 850,000 (up 583,000 in May).
The US import price index rose 1% in June, while import prices excluding oil rose 0.7% in June. The Fed-New York manufacturing index rose from 17.4 to 43.0 for the month, also well above the forecast. According to the Federal Reserve data released on Thursday July 15, industrial production in the US as a whole increased by 0.4% in June compared to May, which also indicates a good pace of recovery in the US economy.
By “pre-covid” logic, all this data would have strengthened the dollar seriously. However, it has risen against the euro by just about 50 points in the past four weeks. And the pair has generally been in a sideways corridor with a minimal dominance of bears for the last two weeks: it traded in the range of 1.1780-1.1895 from July 05 to 09, and in the 1.1770-1.1880 range from July 12 to 16.
These figures fully confirmed the compromise scenario presented by the experts. As for the forecast of graphical analysis, it turned out to be almost perfect. Recall that it indicated a sideways trend within 1.1780-1.1900 on H4.
So why isn't the American currency growing? The reason lies in the hesitancy and doubts that still bedevil the US Fed. The head of this regulator Jerome Powell said speaking on July 14 at the Financial Services Committee of the US Congress that his department would not rush to tighten credit and financial policy and reduce the purchase of assets within the framework of QE. He repeated roughly the same thing the next day, in front of the Senate Banking Committee.
Powell acknowledged that inflation is growing faster than expected, and if it goes beyond acceptable limits, monetary policy will have to be tightened ahead of schedule. But for now, the economy is “still far” from set goals. The rise in inflation, like many other factors, can be temporary. But after they disappear, they can be replaced by others. Now, the spread of the new COVID-19 strain supports the dollar against commodity currencies, but there is no telling how the markets will behave in the future. It is unclear how the early curtailment of the fiscal stimulus program will affect their mood as well.
As a result, having given all this portion of doubts to the congressmen, Powell assured them that the Fed was certainly monitoring the situation closely and would respond promptly to its changes. However, the head of the central bank was unable to influence investor sentiment in any way (or perhaps did not want to), as a result of which the EUR/USD pair remained within a narrow trading range and completed the five-day period at 1.1805;

- GBP/USD. The pair failed to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3900 over the past week. As with EUR/USD, bears had a slight advantage, helped by positive economic statistics from the USA. Great Britain could not please with anything like that. And although the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the month decreased by 24% - from 151,400 to 114,800, the unemployment rate remained at the same level of 4.8% (instead of the forecast drop to 4.7%). Investors are also worried about the onset of a new wave of COVID-19, due to which the number of new infections here has exceeded 50,000 per day. As a result, despite the fact that the bulls managed to keep the pair in the 1.3800-1.3900 channel all week, its lower border was broken on Friday, July 16 and the pair finished at 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. It was not possible to understand the sentiment of investors, as well as indicators, last week. The experts' voices were almost equally divided: 30% sided with the bulls, 40% with the bears, and 40% just shrugged their shoulders. The inconsistency in the indicators' readings did not allow bringing their readings to any common denominator either. And, as the past five days have shown, it was this lack of forecast that proved to be the most accurate prediction: the USD/JPY pair drew a virtually perfect sinusoid.
As expected, the Bank of Japan did not present any surprises on Friday, July 16, and did not surprise anyone with its inaction, once again confirming the country's reputation as a super-safe haven for investors. Bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda did not utter a single new intriguing word during the press conference once again. Investors knew very well without him that the Japanese economy remains in a difficult situation, but the level of activity will increase as the population is vaccinated.
The balance of power between the dollar and the yen was not affected by the discrepancy in the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and Japan. As a result, the pair ended the week almost where it started, at 110.05;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was ripping up in late June to early July, wishing to break through the $36,000 resistance. However, none of the attempts made by the bulls were successful. Now the initiative has passed to the bears, and we saw the opposite picture last week: the desire to drop the BTC/USD pair below the psychologically important level of $30,000, after which another wave of mass sales may follow.
Trading volumes on major crypto exchanges including Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, and Bitstamp fell more than 40% in June, according to CryptoCompare. The decline in volumes was due to falling prices and lower volatility. But not only. The absence of large investors, most of whom are now engaged in traditional markets, trying to understand the situation with the coronavirus and the accompanying steps of regulators, is also affecting.
At the time of this writing, the flagship currency is held in the $31,000-32,000 region. And according to Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz, this is because of the USA. He stated in a comment to CNBC that the US cryptocurrency community has taken an important defensive line in a market that has its bearish origins in Asia. “We see Asia selling bitcoin and the US buying back. China has declared war on the crypto industry as part of the broader Cold War that we are getting into."
To be honest, it is not yet clear whether it is good or bad that the crypto industry has grown to become a prominent part of the economic policies of the world's leading powers. Time will tell. Of course, Mike Novogratz can consider the exodus of miners from China to be a "big plus" and say that Beijing's repressive policies will not hinder the development of the industry. But judging by the charts, so far the advantage is on China's side. Many investors and traders prefer to stay out of the market for fear of further falls in quotes. Average daily trading turnover is now 76% below peak levels when the price was above $60,000. The total capitalization of the crypto market declined by nearly $100 billion in seven days, from $1.370 trillion to $1.275 trillion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index cannot get out of the Extreme Fear zone for several weeks now, fluctuating in the range from 20 to 22 points. (Recall that the market sentiment looked more optimistic a month ago, and the average value of the Index was 33 points).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We talked about the doubts prevailing at the Fed in the first part of the review. In such a situation, the rare unity of analysts looks all the more surprising. Thus, 75% of them were voted for a stronger dollar and a decrease in EUR/USD, 25% for the side trend, and, respectively, 0% for the euro to rise. Perhaps the principle "if you are not sure, buy dollar" worked.
According to 39 out of 41 Reuters experts, the Fed will curtail its monthly asset purchase program by $120 billion before the end of 2022. Three of them believe that this will happen very soon, this year already. The number of those who expect an interest rate increase in 2022, and not in 2023, is also growing. Therefore, the consensus forecast for QE completion is in the next year, which supports the US dollar. The new wave of COVID-19 is also playing on the side of the American currency, recalling that it was during the pandemic that the dollar gained great importance as a reserve currency.
It should be noted that with the transition to the forecast by the end of summer, the number of supporters of a weakening dollar and a strengthening of the euro among experts increases from 0% to 50%.
Graphical analysis on H4 still indicates a sideways trend within the channel 1.1780-1.1900. There is a mixture of red, green and neutral gray colors among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, but the situation is different on D1: 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators look down.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1880-1.1900, then 1.1975-1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge before the end of summer is to update the high of May 25 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The nearest support on the way to this target is 1.1780.
The economic calendar for the coming week can note the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday July 22. The rate is highly likely to remain unchanged, at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference of the bank's management and its commentary on monetary policy is of much greater interest. According to Reuters, the ECB will have to decide at its meeting on Thursday what the new inflation target will mean for its future course. If the regulator is serious about raising inflation to 2% (compared to the previous target - close, but below 2%), then the large-scale purchase of assets is likely to continue. But the "hawks" insist on curtailing incentives, and therefore investors will be interested in whether the head of the Bank, Christine Lagarde, will be able to achieve a certain compromise.
The Markit PMI values in Germany and the Eurozone will become known the day after the ECB meeting, on July 23, on the basis of which it will be possible to get an impression of the pace of the European economic recovery;

- GBP/USD. Experts are a little more optimistic about the future of the British currency than the future of the euro. So, 25% of specialists vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair in the near future (as opposed to 0% for EUR/USD). The same is higher at the month and a half interval as well: 65% are bull supporters (the euro has 50%).
As for the technical analysis, there are only faint hints of a possible rise in the pair. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored red on H4 (the remaining 25% are in the oversold zone). 85% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators look south on D1.
Support levels are 1.3740, 1.3700, 1.3670 and 1.3600, resistance levels are 1.3800, 1.3840 and 1.3900. The further target of the bulls is the upper border of the medium-term channel 1.3700-1.4000;


- USD/JPY. As in the case with the previous two pairs, in this case, the majority of experts (70%) expect the dollar to strengthen and a new attempt by the pair to gain a foothold above the level of 111.00. Such a forecast comes into a certain contradiction with the indications of technical analysis on D1. Here 65% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators are colored red.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws the movement of the pair in the range of 109.70-110.40 on H4, with a subsequent fall to support at 109.30. The range of fluctuations is somewhat wider on D1: first, the fall to the zone 108.65-109.30, and then the rise to the resistance 111.00 and further growth to the July 02 high, 111.65;

- cryptocurrencies. We provided the key estimates of the digital market over the last period in the first part of the review. And they don't look rosy at all. It may be too early to talk about the onset of "crypto winter", but it is quite possible to call the current situation "crypto freezes". The BTC/USD chart continues to form a triangle with downward resistance and horizontal support around $31,000. 65% of analysts vote for its breakthrough during the coming month. That being said, according to some experts, if the bulls fail to hold that front line, we stand a lot of chances to see the pair in the region of $10,000 by the end of the year.
But, as usual, there is an opposite point of view as well. So, for example, analyst Will Clemente believes that bitcoin is already ready for a major price movement. He published a chart in his Twitter (136 thousand subscribers) with an indicator, which speaks of a possible imminent exit of the price of the first cryptocurrency from the narrow range. As to the direction of the bitcoin rate, Clemente wrote that he was optimistic. According to him, the market is now in the accumulation stage, and large players continue to actively buy the first cryptocurrency. "Whale" stocks increased by 65,429 BTC just last week. According to Clemente, there may be a shortage of supply of the main cryptocurrency in the near future, since large players often acquire assets for long-term purposes.
The expert also stressed that the growth in the number of cryptocurrency users continues. Whereas their number usually decreases after the peak in prices. But now there is no fall, and this is also an argument in favor of the upcoming growth of BTC.
Another specialist, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, agrees with Clemente's opinion. According to him, the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a level where it can resume its rally towards $100,000. "Bitcoin is poised to return to a bullish trend in the second half of the year, and crude oil is ready to resume a bearish trend," McGlone wrote on Twitter. The expert is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will "have serious macroeconomic consequences" this time. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time McGlone predicts a sharp rise in digital assets. For example, he announced in early February that the volatility of bitcoin can increase the gap between its price and gold "hundreds of times."
No one knows yet which of the predictions will turn out to be correct. But there are a couple of ways to make money on cryptocurrency without spending a dime to buy it. However, both of these methods can be classified as "dirty" business. And this in our traditional heading crypto-life hacks.
First, you can help British IT engineer James Howells sort through rubbish. The fact is that this wonderful person threw a hard drive with 7,500 BTC into rubbish eight years ago, confusing it with another device. He then asked local authorities for permission to excavate a local dump to find his property but was refused. And now Howells has developed a new search plan using a super system with multiple conveyor belts, X-ray scanners and artificial intelligence. However, the implementation of this project requires significant financial costs. And if suddenly someone helps an engineer find the disk in a simple way, with the help of a shovel, he will surely share his new-found wealth. Today, his bitcoins are worth more than $230 million, and it is necessary to sort out "only" 300-400 thousand tons of waste.
Another way of “dirty” earnings was told by Reuters. According to this agency, students at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (South Korea) make money from... going to the toilet. For each visit, they are paid a certain amount in digital currency Ggool.
One of the institute's professors has developed a plant that uses student waste to produce biogas. According to the scientist's calculations, a person produces about 500 grams of feces every day, which can be converted into 50 liters of methane. This amount of gas generates 0.5 kW of electricity, which is equal to the cost of a car to cover a distance of 1.2 km.
The science Initiative brings students up to 10 Ggool per day. The coin is accepted as payment in shops on campus. And the energy produced with the help of students powers a number of devices on the territory of the institute.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Mastercard, in collaboration with financial platforms Evolve Bank & Trust, Paxos and Circle, is launching a new program that will allow more banks and cryptocurrency companies to offer plastic and virtual cards to those wishing to “spend their digital assets wherever Mastercard is accepted”. This is stated in a press release by the company. It also noted that cryptocurrency providers are now having difficulty converting cryptocurrency into fiat. The new initiative will address this problem.

- Half of the fintech and cryptocurrency experts expect bitcoin to surpass fiat and national digital currencies by 2040. Finder.com reached such conclusions in their survey. Moreover, a third of them believe that the so-called "hyperbitcoinization" will come by 2035 or earlier.
Optimists have not lost faith in the favorable prospects of the first cryptocurrency. They believe that El Salvador's acceptance of bitcoin as a means of payment will set an example for other emerging economies. However, the second half of those surveyed questioned bitcoin's ability to become the dominant asset in global finance.

- Professional boxing legend Mike Tyson invited Twitter followers to choose between bitcoin and Ethereum. The discussion was joined by the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, who said that he spent over a thousand hours thinking about this issue. He ended up choosing the first cryptocurrency. “I bought $2.9 billion worth of bitcoin because I consider it the future of digital ownership,” said the head of MicroStrategy.
Other representatives of the crypto industry joined the discussion. For example, OkeX Bitcoin exchange head Jay Hao responded with a meme with the text “You don't have to choose if you have both.”

- The Chinese cryptocurrency community has been recently actively discussing a video in which a roller is crushing a large number of ASIC miners. Some members of the community associated what was happening with the recent bans by the PRC authorities. Others have suggested that the action takes place in Latin America. However, it was later revealed that Malaysia's law enforcement agents destroyed the equipment. A local portal cited a statement from the Miri County Police Chief, according to whom 1,069 bitcoin miners worth $1.25 million were destroyed. The equipment was seized in six raids between February and April.

- Major bitcoin investor Tim Draper hasn't changed his optimism about cryptocurrency No.1, despite the sharp drop in its price. According to the billionaire, BTC's price will reach $250,000 by early 2023 at the latest. It is worth noting that Draper has previously managed to make accurate predictions. So, in 2014, he predicted that bitcoin would break the $10,000 level within three years.
Draper sees a whole set of financial functions in bitcoin, so he believes that this cryptocurrency will spread in countries with both developed and emerging economies.

- Data obtained by news site Finbold shows that the popularity of cryptocurrency applications for iOS and Android has grown 2.6 times over the year. They now dominate the top 50 asset management apps, surpassing similar stock trading programs in the USA. The number of downloads of applications for transactions with cryptocurrencies in the AppStore has already exceeded 18 million in 2021, in Google Play - 15 million.

- David Tice, co-founder of hedge fund Morand-Tice Capital Management, is confident that this is a "very dangerous period" for owning bitcoin and other financial assets. “The market is very overvalued in terms of future profits. Debt is growing at an unprecedented rate. The government bond market, where rates are falling sharply, is behaving very strangely,” he said in an interview with CNBC.
Tice has earned the reputation of being a bearish investor on bullish cycles. Thus, he sold his "bear" fund Prudent Bear Fund during the 2008 crisis. Now the financier is confident of the inevitability of a collapse in markets, although he acknowledges that accurately predicting the moment of the next major pullback is very difficult. He urges investors to weigh the risks as, in an attempt to earn 3-5% in the short term, they are threatening themselves with a 40% pullback. Especially, he believes, this is true for stocks of big tech companies such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet.
The cryptocurrency investment is described by Tice as “very dangerous.” “We had a position on bitcoin when it was worth $10,000,” the investor admitted. - Nevertheless, when it went up to $60,000, we decided that this rate has outlived itself. Concerns from central banks and the Bank for International Settlements have grown strongly lately, with all of them giving strong negative comments. I think it's very dangerous to hold bitcoin today."
Tice himself is now betting on the rise in the price of precious metals and shares of companies from the mining sector.

- A crowdfunding campaign for a documentary about cryptocurrency Ethereum and its co-founder Vitalik Buterin raised $1,900,000 on the Mirror platform in just three days. The goal was to raise an amount of 750 ETH (about $1.37 million at the time of writing). However, 662 users donated 1,036 coins. The most generous of them will be credited. The film titled “Ethereum: The Infinite Garden,” is scheduled to premiere in winter 2023. Optimist studio is working on it.

- More than 200 people from about 20 countries have lost about $70 million due to scams related to the OEN cryptocurrency. According to The Standard, the scammers, posing as attractive Chinese women on dating sites, urged their fans to invest in this cryptocurrency through the Bitfex.pro and Bitfex.vip exchanges, which are currently no longer working.
The "girls", who were very difficult to refuse, deprived some especially gullible clients of almost all their funds. So, one client in love lost $100,900, and after he ran out of money, the "beauty" broke off relations with him.
Given that the IP addresses of the sites changed each time, the Hong Kong police admitted that the investigation was at an impasse, as the cybercriminals left no leads.

- According to data from BitinFoCharts, one of the bitcoin megakits controls about 144,000 coins in 18 wallets, each containing exactly 8,000 BTC. The total value of the coins is currently more than $4.3 billion. It bought a further 29,880 BTC for about $950 million last weekend of July 16-18, making it clear that big players continue to accumulate during the fall in the price of the main cryptocurrency.


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Stan NordFX
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Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders


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The $100,000 Super Lottery was launched by the brokerage company NordFX among its clients on April 1. The name speaks for itself: 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 and a super prize of $ 20,000 will be drawn by the year end.

It is quite easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner of the prize money.

Unlike trader contests, there is no need for a lottery participant to show exceptional trading results. In this case, both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning. And they can either use the received prize money in further trading, or take it out without any restrictions.

70 prizes of $500 each, 20 prizes of $1,000 each, 10 prizes of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000 will be drawn. The draws will be held on October 1, 2021 and January 3, 2022. The first draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on July 1, 2021. It was online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

For more details, visit the NordFX website


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Stan NordFX
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  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Trading Robots: What and How Effective They Are



Traders can use not only their knowledge in their work, but also various computer programs: auxiliary scripts, as well as algorithms that can give recommendations and even open and close transactions on their own. These automated trading systems are called Forex robots. This article will discuss them in detail, as well as talk about the types and how to use them.

What is a Forex Robot?

This is a program code that operates according to the algorithm installed in it. There are several types of Forex robots from the point of view of the trading system embedded in them. They can work on the basis of indicators or a specific money and risk management strategy. A very large number of free Forex trading robots operate on the basis of the well-known Martingale strategy.

How does a Forex Trading Robot work? It is pretty simple. In fact, it is an automated strategy that does all the same things that the trader would do, but only without the participation of the latter.

Suppose the robot is based on the Relative Strength Index RSI indicator and operates on the principle of getting out of the overbought and oversold areas (70% and 30% of the indicator scale, respectively). As soon as such a situation occurs on the chart, the robot opens a transaction on its own (Fig.1). A trader would do the same if they worked with such an indicator.
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Such a computer assistant program can include either one single indicator or several similar algorithms. For example, the MACD indicator or the famous Stochastic Oscillator can be used in addition to the moving average. In this case, the robot's algorithm will be configured to receive signals based on two indicators, and trades will be opened only when these two indicators give the same commands, for example, to open a long position.

Main Types of Trading Robots

There are two main types of trading systems. The first one is semi-automatic, which only gives recommendations. That is, the trader needs to make their own decisions. The second one works completely autonomously. A trader launches it on their trading platform, and such a system analyzes the market and makes decisions by itself.

It's hard to say which approach is better. Each of these types has both advantages and disadvantages. For example, semi-automatic advisors (with manual opening of transactions) do not provide the trader with complete freedom and require the presence of the terminal at the moment the signal appears.

Fully automated trading bots work on the "plug and forget" principle, but there are also drawbacks here. Given that such robots are programmed to work with a certain set of tools, they cannot take into account, for example, the influence of fundamental factors on the market. And this can lead to losses from the work of such an advisor.

Some Recommendations for Working with Automated Trading Strategies

We have already noted above that robots that work completely autonomously have both their pros and cons. At least, it is not recommended to leave such algorithms unattended for a long time. Below we will give some useful tips for those planning to work with such bots.
1. Take a closer look at the trading system underlying the robot.

If you purchase an expert advisor or download it for free on the Internet, you need to carefully study what lies at the heart of such a trading bot. The fact is that the overwhelming majority of Forex robots are based on the so-called "martingale". What is that? This is a money management method that came to trading from casino.

It is based on the fact that every time you close a losing trade, you need to double the size of the next position. For example, if you opened a trade with 0.1 lot, then in case of a loss, the next trade would open with 0.2 lots. Further, if this trade has not made a profit, the next one will open in the size of 0.4 lots, and so on until you close the transaction at a profit.

As a result of this approach, the very first profitable trade will allow you to cover all losses and make a profit. But the risks of such a strategy are great. The fact is that the trader's deposit is always limited. If there is not enough money to open the next position, the trader will lose all the money that they invested in the formation of martingale steps earlier.

It should be noted here that the settings of the absolute majority of Forex trading robots using this trading strategy allow the trader to change the lot increase coefficient. And it can be set as more than 2.0 or less, for example, 1.5. That is, if you opened the first trade with 0.1 lots, then in case of a loss, the next trade will be opened with 0.15 lots, and so on.
2. Pre-settings.

Before giving the robot the opportunity to trade independently on the financial market, it is necessary to configure its main parameters. This applies to both functionality in terms of strategy, and in terms of capital and risk management. (One example of such settings was given above).

The strategy settings can be identical to the indicator settings. Some expert advisors have the option to regulate the algorithms they use. For example, you can set what period of the Moving Average will be used in the robot for trend trading.

As for money and risk management, most automated trading systems have such settings. For example, you will be able to set the robot software at which distance to put stop loss or take profit. And whether to place them at all. Also, the size of the lot with which the bot will work in the financial markets is determined. Some expert advisors set additional parameters, such as maximum deviation or spread when opening positions in order to avoid sending an order to a broker at a disadvantageous price. You can also limit the maximum number of simultaneously opened positions to reduce the risk of losing capital.

The number of settings in Forex trading robots can vary significantly: one computer program can have two or three of them, another - several dozens. The strategy tester, which is built into the MetaTrader-4 (MT4) trading platform, which NordFX brokerage company offers to its clients, will help to deal with them.
3. Paid VS Free Trading Robots.

Today, you can find both paid and free advisors on the Internet. Many traders prefer the second option, since in this case there are no additional financial costs associated with their purchase.

The advantage of free Forex trading robots is that they really do not require any investment from the trader. However, there is one important nuance here that must be considered. When choosing a free Forex trading robot, you most often do not know the developer and the trading system that underlies such an algorithm. Therefore, in order to understand how it works, calculate its pros and cons, determine the presence or absence of errors in a computer program, you will need to test the work of such an assistant trader in the MT4 strategy tester, and then trade with it on a free demo account.

Paid trading robots are distinguished by a number of advantages, including full technical support from developers, a flexible system of settings and a history of their work with various parameters and trading instruments. In some cases, developers will be ready to make adjustments to the operation of this trading bot, recommended by the Forex trader.

How Forex Trading Robots Are Created

The first thing to know is that a trading robot may not work on all trading platforms. The most popular in the world, as already mentioned, is the MetaTrader-4 platform (or trading terminal), which uses a special programming language MQL4, with which thousands of programs for automatic Forex trading have already been created.

On the MetaTrader-4 platform, a trader will find special tabs with which they will get access to a huge number of special scripts, indicators and robots. One can buy them, rent them or just take them to test. You will also have hundreds of experienced programmers at your service, ready to create an automated trading system according to the algorithm specified by the trader. At the same time, it is very important to correctly draw up a technical task so that programmers do exactly what you expect to receive from them.
Myths about trading robots

There are several myths that are actively spreading on the Internet. We decided to dispel them and give objective information to those who want to try using trading robots in their trading. Here are the most interesting points:
1. Brokers are against the use of trading robots.

That's not true. For example, broker NordFX does not in any way prevent its clients from using such automated solutions. Moreover, robots have absolutely no effect on the relationship between the client and the company. The use of Forex trading robots is completely legal and does not constitute a violation of the Client Agreement.
2. Only paid robots give results.

It's not true either. And very often a free program can turn out to be no worse, if not better, than the one for which the owner asks hundreds or thousands of dollars. Moreover, it is not at all excluded that this "super-expensive", "super-professional" and "super-profitable" robot was stolen from real developers by hacking, or is simply an exact copy of a well-known, outdated model.

Therefore, once again, before using or acquiring any robot, it is necessary to carefully examine its “stuffing” and understand how it works.
3. Robots free the trader completely from having to make any decisions.

This is a false statement. A Forex trader tests and sets up the robot before launch anyway. Moreover, it is recommended to carefully monitor how the bot is trading and in case of a change in the market situation, either temporarily suspend the work or make the appropriate changes to the settings.

So, is it worth using trading robots in trading? This question is completely individual and depends on your preferences, experience, knowledge, availability of free time and the characteristics of your psyche. Definitely, the use of robots does not guarantee success, but the fact is that they can provide serious help in the work of the trader.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Stan NordFX
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NordFX Trader Earned Over USD 5.5 Million in July



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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in July.

The most impressive result was a trader from India, account No.1566XXX, with a profit of USD 5,114,045. But he did not stop there, adding to this multimillion-dollar profit another half a million dollars, or rather USD 463,953, which he earned on his second account opened with NordFX. Thus, the total income of this client amounted to USD 5,577,998 in just one month and was obtained thanks to transactions in pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF), Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/NZD) and a number of other currencies.

The pound helped another Indian trader as well (account No.1569XXX), who came in second with a result of USD 318,398 and used practically the same Forex pairs as trading instruments.

The British currency may well be called the hit of the month, since a client from China (account No.1397XXX), who was third with a profit of USD 179,327, rose to the podium thanks to transactions in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

The passive investment services:

- in CopyTrading in July, the largest increase of 164% was shown by the signal with the name claiming to be the top: BangBigBossTop1. If you look at the history of this signal, you can see that May, the first month of its life, was unprofitable, and then the signal went into plus and showed an increase of 398% for two summer months. At the same time, the highest drawdown on the account reached 55%, which would attribute it to high-income and high-risk signals.

The EAs for Life signal also attracts attention, showing a yield of 1207% since November 2020. The signal was generating stable profits for eight out of nine months of its life. However, May turned out to be extremely unsuccessful for it, the drawdown reached 75%, which is why it can also be classified as high-risk.

Those investors who prefer small stable profits with minimal risk can pay attention to the COEX.Investments-Treis3 signal: about 5.5% gain in July with a maximum drawdown of only 1%. This signal has only one drawback so far: it is still very young and has existed since June 05, 2021.

- the PAMM service also has a lot of offers for investors who prefer low or moderate risk. For example, the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA increased his capital by 34% since January 2021 (5.3% in July) with a drawdown of less than 15%. And the capital gain under the management of TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 in four months was 18.4% with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the NordFX IB-partners, the TOP-3 was headed by a representative from India (account No.1504XXX), who received USD 58,960 as a commission.

His colleague from the Middle East (account No.1569XXX) came in second, earning USD 10,405.

The third place went to a partner from Vietnam (account No. 1551XXX) with a result of USD 8,053


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews of the Week

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- Bitcoin has the potential to become the "property of the future" that everyone, starting from small investors to big tech companies and governments, will be able to possess. This opinion was expressed by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
The top manager noted that his company's bet on the first cryptocurrency was the embodiment of "a strategy with the greatest growth potential and the least risk." "For some, diversification is the purchase of other cryptocurrencies or shares. For us, bitcoin is the same diversification. We see a future in which digital gold will become the basis of technological innovation in Apple, Amazon and Facebook and will take place on the balance sheets of corporations, cities, states and countriess," the billionaire explained.

- The Legislative Assembly of El Salvador adopted a law in June recognizing bitcoin as an official means of payment in the country. It will come into force on September 7, 2021. Analysts at Bank of America, one of the largest financial institutions in the United States, believe that such a step can give this country a number of serious advantages.
The bank's experts noted that the country's decision to recognize cryptocurrency as legal tender could potentially reduce the cost of remittances from abroad, which account for almost a quarter of El Salvador's GDP. This can positively affect the incomes of the country's citizens.
The analysts have called the democratization of financial services another advantage of the introduction of bitcoin, since approximately 70% of the adult population of the country does not have bank accounts. El Salvador can also attract direct foreign investment flows, becoming a major cryptocurrency mining center similar to Iceland.

- The animated show Stoner Cats, launched by Hollywood actress of Ukrainian origin Mila Kunis, attracted 3647 ETH (more than $9 million at the time of writing) in 35 minutes of the token sale. A collection of digital cats was put up for sale at a price of 0.35 ETH per "animal". The proceeds from the sale will be used to finance the new series.
Due to the hype, the cost of commissions in the Ethereum network has increased. And the crypto community joked that "cats have once again "clogged" the network, hinting at the situation with the game CryptoKitties.

- According to the latest data of the analytical resource Glassnode, more and more investors have been recently investing in the world's main cryptocurrency. In particular, a sharp jump in the total number of active bitcoin addresses was registered at the end of July. The increase in the indicator was about 30% in just a week. And the purses of "whales" accumulated 9.23 million BTC for the first time in history.
Glassnode experts focused on such an indicator as "Entities" for higher reliability of data. It does not take into account each bitcoin wallet separately but considers users (individuals and institutionals) controlling clusters of network addresses.
Glassnode explains these positive dynamics by the recent growth of the bitcoin rate. Its price has been consistently strengthening since July 21, and it managed again to reach a height of $42,500 on August 1. (However, at the time of writing, BTC has already rolled back below $38,000).

- A trader from South Korea lost more than $500,000 when trying to buy BTC, AsiaOne reports. According to the publication, he arranged a personal meeting with a bitcoin seller in a southern district of Hong Kong. However, four criminalss were waiting for him at the meeting place. Threatening with a knife, they took away from the trader a bag in which there were 3 million Hong Kong dollars (about $523,000). The man was injured In the attack and was taken to a local hospital. Law enforcement officers have not yet been able to find the criminals.
According to AsiaOne, this is the second robbery in Hong Kong this year when trying to buy cryptocurrency. A 22-year-old local resident was robbed of 2 million Hong Kong dollars in June. And it is quite likely that this is the work of the same gang.

- A popular cryptocurrency analyst under the nickname Jack Sparrow believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a new wave of growth. This will be the fifth and final bullish season in the current market cycle.
The analyst builds on previous cycles of 2013 and 2017 and also uses Elliot's wave theory. This method of technical analysis is based on the psychology of the masses and the cyclicality of the market. According to the theory, the fifth wave of growth is usually the largest. Then the trend changes for the opposite.
Jack Sparrow believes that the bitcoin rate can grow tenfold in the long run. As for Ethereum, it is now in the accumulation phase and is also preparing for growth. The rate of the second cryptocurrency may exceed $3,050 soon.

- Cryptocurrency was mined on the equipment of the Main Directorate of the Police of Poland (KGP), Gazeta Wyborcza reports. The mining was organized by an IT specialist of the department, who has already been fired. According to the newspaper, he will be followed by another employee.
Fears were caused by a possible leak of official data from police computers caused by illegal mining. However, the department denied this possibility: "The device used was not connected to any database, and the case is largely related to the theft of electricity."
Recall that this is not the only case of such use of service equipment. Mining was also done on hospital computers in Estonia, on the equipment of an airport in Italy. And engineers in the city of Sarov in Russia mined bitcoins on a supercomputer of a classified nuclear center. All of them were fined, and one of the ex-employees of the center was imprisoned.

- State Street, the second oldest U.S. bank with an investment portfolio of $3.1 trillion, plans to begin providing cryptocurrency-related services. It is about helping private funds to carry out transactions with digital assets, as well as to provide services for keeping records of such transactions. To this end, State Street has agreed to cooperate with Lukka, which has experience in assessing the value of digital assets based on the state of supply and demand. Such information will be useful for those private funds of the bank that are looking for optimal price levels to enter the cryptocurrency market.

- There is a theory that the movement of the price of bitcoin is based on changes in spot trading, and that the derivatives market also has a huge impact on the quotes of the main cryptocurrency.
Call contracts in the bitcoin derivatives market are associated with the demand for price increases, put contracts insure against falling prices. As of Aug. 1, the put/call ratio had fallen to an 8-month low. This ratio was so low for the last time in December 2020. Low put/call ratios indicate that bitcoin investors are supporting price increases. That need is now higher than what we saw in April, right before BTC soared to $60,000.
The probability index shows that there is a 30% chance that BTC will reach $46,000 soon. Moreover, according to the indicator readings, the overall probability that bitcoin will be worth between $50,000 and $55,000 is 28.3%.

- Michael Miebach, CEO of payment giant Mastercard said that cryptocurrencies must enter the banking sector. Moreover, he has publicly stated that his company will do everything possible to become an integral part of the crypto space. "Mastercard is ready to become an assistant for the authorities in this task. We are ready for experiments and testing of digital currencies, so that in the end banks begin to work with them," Miebach said.
The top manager added that Mastercard will allow 1 billion of its users to pay with digital assets in more than 30 countries around the world in 2021.
Recall that another payment giant, Visa, is already working on the integration of stablecoins into the global economy.

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Stan NordFX
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Forex Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 09 - 13, 2021



EUR / USD: it's All About the Labor Market

The EUR/USD pair drew another wave of sine waves on the chart: it fell by the same amount in the first week of August as it rose in the last week of July.

Statistics from the US labor market set the tone for the week's trends. In anticipation, the pair was moving in the sideways range of 1.1850-1.1900 throughout the first half of the week. The bears tried to break through its lower border on Wednesday, August 04. However, amid disappointing private sector employment statistics from the ADP, the pair reversed and, conversely, aimed at a breakout of the channel's upper border. But this attempt, now by the bulls, failed. The reason was the record growth of business activity in the US services sector from ISM: it rose to 64.1 in July.

After pulling back to support 1.1830, the pair froze in anticipation of the release of non-farm payrolls (NFP), data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector. This data is traditionally published every first Friday of the month. And the report released on August 6 did not disappoint investors. Moreover, some analysts called it "stellar" as it showed employment growth of 943 thousand against the forecast of 870 thousand. In addition, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.4%.
The market responded immediately with a surge in the US currency, as according to Fed statements, the timing of the monetary stimulus program (QE) and interest rate hikes are directly dependent from a crackdown on inflation and a full-fledged recovery in the US labor market.

After the release of the report, the yield on 10-year US bonds went up in the direction of 1.30%, which supported the rally in the dollar. The DXY rose 0.60% to 92.80, while EUR/USD plunged to 1.1755. The last chord of the week sounded very close, at the level of 1.1760.

Impressive labor market data allowed President Joe Biden to say his approach to economics is working. True, the White House host urged not to relax and stated that there was still a lot of hard work to do. Moreover, the country has to extinguish a new wave of coronavirus associated with the Delta strain. The president believes that the number of new cases of Covid will initially rise, but then decline, thanks to the current scale of vaccinations. And therefore, the US economy will not suffer as much damage as it did before.

Biden's words also went into the piggy bank of those waiting for the Fed's policy tightening soon. For example, analysts at Canadian investment bank TD Securities forecast that the dollar will perform better against currencies whose national central banks retain a dovish mood.

The overall picture for the pair looks bearish, something 70% of experts agree on. They believe that the EUR/USD pair intends to test the end-March low of 1.1700 once again. If it succeeds, it will encounter a strong support in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. This forecast is supported by 100% of trend indicators on both H4 and D1. But the oscillators note the weakening of the bearish onslaught. 10% of them have taken a neutral position on H4, and 15% are giving signals that the pair is oversold. There are even more of them on D1, 35%, which indicates a possible quick correction to the north. The remaining 30% of the experts are also expecting it. Moreover, in their opinion, the pair may not just limit itself to correction, but return first to the channel 1.1850-1.1900, and then rise to 1.2000. Although, of course, this is not a matter of the next few days.

As for the macro statistics for the coming week, here we can note the release of data on the consumer market in Germany and the United States on Wednesday, August 11. In addition, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will also be released at the end of the five-day period, on Friday, August 13. It is predicted that it may show a slight increase, which will slightly strengthen the US currency.

GBP/USD: Waiting for the Start of QE

The Bank of England held a meeting on Thursday August 05, which, as expected, offered no surprises. Even with the good pace of recovery from the pandemic and rising inflation, all basic monetary policy parameters remained unchanged. The regulator kept the interest rate at a historically low level of 0.1%, and the quantitative easing (QE) program at ?895 billion.

The GBP/USD pair was never able to break the record of 30 July and was held in 1.3870-1.3935 for the whole week. An attempt made, in parallel with the euro, to break through its upper border on August 4, ended in nothing. As a result of the week's session, thanks to strong US statistics, the pair returned to the bottom of the channel, where it placed the final point at 1.3875.

The main interest for investors was not the predictable decision of the Bank of England, but the subsequent comments of its management regarding the future monetary policy. As mentioned above, the country's economy is confidently moving along the path of recovery. According to the data released earlier, inflation in June rose to 2.5%, exceeding the target level of 2%. The government is managing to cope with the next wave of COVID-19, so no new restrictions or lockdowns are yet to be seen. And although the Deputy Chairman of the Bank of England Benjamin Broadbent uttered a mysteriously ornate phrase that “moderate (!) tightening is likely (!), maybe (!) will be needed”, it did not impress investors. Especially as Broadbent said inflation in the country will rise 4% in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022.

Therefore, according to 75% of experts, any signal about a possible transition from QE to a tighter policy, will be enough to lift the GBP/USD pair to 1.4000. 60% of oscillators agree with this position, but only 40% of trend indicators on D1. There is even greater discord in the readings of the indicators on H4. Graphical analysis on this timeframe first draws a fall of the pair to the 1.3800 horizon, and then a return to the highs of the end of July in the 1.3980 zone. It is clear that the support/resistance levels along the way will be the 1.3870-1.3935 channel boundaries.

As for the events of the coming week, we can single out the publication of preliminary data on UK GDP for tQ2 2021 on Thursday August 12. This figure is projected to show a very significant increase, from minus 1.6% to plus 4.8%. And if the forecast is met, it will give the pound strong support, thus becoming a signal to the possible start of the QE program cuts.

USD/JPY: North Following Treasury Yields

Starting on Wednesday August 04, the yen surrendered one frontier of defense after another, losing 150 points. The USD/JPY pair jumped from 108.71 to 110.21 in just three days. And, of course, it's all again to blame the same growing US labor market, pulling the yield of American treasuries. As mentioned above, this indicator approached 1.30%, which hit the Japanese currency hard.

Most experts (55%) expect the pair to return to support at 109.00. However, according to 45% of analysts, the pair has not yet exhausted its upside potential, especially if the yield on 10-year US Treasuries continues to rise. This forecast is actively supported by 100% of trend indicators on both timeframes, 65% of oscillators on H4 and 50% on D1. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts that the pair will finally be able to reach the coveted 112.00 level. The resistances on the way to this target are 110.65, 111.10 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is Crypto Winter Canceled?

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The digital currency market is optimistic. Investors hope that the crypto freeze has passed, and instead of a crypto winter, a crypto spring has immediately arrived. Indeed, over the past two weeks, a lot of green leaves have appeared on the "tree" of bitcoin quotes, of which there are much more than yellow-red dull autumn ones.

Bouncing off the low of $29,300 on July 20, the BTC/USD pair added about 40% and is trading in the $41,000-42,500 zone at the time of writing the forecast. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by the same 40% over this period: from $1.19 trillion to $1.67 trillion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it has finally moved from the Extreme Fear zone to the center of the scale, rising from 10 points to 52.

In addition to the quotes, major influencers statements and macro statistics support the market optimism. Recall that it was these factors that served as the main drivers of the bitcoin rally last fall.

For example, MicroStrategy chief Michael Saylor, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that bitcoin has “the greatest growth potential and the lowest risk” and could therefore become “the property of the future” which will be possessed by everyone from small investors to big tech companies and governments. We see a future in which digital gold will become the basis of technological innovation in Apple, Amazon and Facebook and will take place on the balance sheets of corporations, cities, states and countries," the billionaire explained.

Analysts at one of the largest U.S. financial institutions, Bank of America, confirmed Saylor indirectly. They believe that the recognition of bitcoin as an official means of payment in El Salvador can give this country a number of serious advantages. This could potentially reduce the cost of remittances from abroad, which account for almost a quarter of El Salvador's GDP, and positively affect the incomes of the country's citizens. The analysts have called the democratization of financial services another advantage of the introduction of bitcoin, since approximately 70% of the adult population of the country does not have bank accounts. El Salvador can also attract direct foreign investment flows, becoming a major cryptocurrency mining center.

State Street, the second oldest bank in the United States with an investment portfolio of $3.1 trillion, plans to begin providing cryptocurrency related services. It is about helping private foundations to carry out transactions with digital assets and provide them with information on the optimal price levels for entering the crypto market.

But of course, things are not limited to State Street alone. Michael Miebach, CEO of payment giant Mastercard, said that cryptocurrencies must enter the banking sector on a large scale. Moreover, his company will do everything possible to become an integral part of the crypto space. "Mastercard is ready to become an assistant for the authorities in this task. We are ready for experiments and testing of digital currencies, so that in the end banks begin to work with them," said Miebach. And he added that Mastercard will allow 1 billion of its users to pay with digital assets in more than 30 countries around the world in 2021.
Recall that another payment giant, Visa, is already working on the integration of stablecoins into the global economy.

In terms of statistics, according to the research resource Glassnode, there was a sharp jump in the total number of active bitcoin addresses at the end of July. The increase in the indicator was about 30% in just a week. And the purses of "whales" accumulated 9.23 million BTC for the first time in history.

A further rise in prices is predicted by such an indicator as the ratio of put and call contracts in the bitcoin derivatives market. Low values of this indicator indicate that investors are supporting the rise in prices. And it fell to an 8-month low on August 01, that is, it is below the April value: the very one after which BTC surged above $60,000.

The likelihood index shows that there is a 30% chance that BTC will reach $46,000 in the near future. Moreover, according to the indicator, the overall probability that bitcoin will be worth between $50,000 and $55,000 is 28.3%.

The mood of analysts is even more elated. 60% of them vote for growth above $46,000. On the contrary, 20% are expecting a fall to the $30,000 area, and the remaining 20% vote for a sideways trend in the $35,000-42,000 range.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews of the Week

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- “Outlaw” and “The Siege” star Steven Seagal found himself implicated in advertising a cryptocurrency scam organized by a group of Serbian nationalists. According to the investigation, fraudsters deceived almost 500 people and lured away from them a total of $11 million in cryptocurrencies and fiat money.
Steven Seagal featured in promos for the new B2G coin as brand ambassador. The actor urged his followers in social media, 7 million people on Facebook and 100 thousand on Twitter, not to miss the chance with B2G.
Investors thought they were investing in mining and would earn up to 200% in 60-90 days. However, their money went into accounts controlled by a certain person of Serbian-Australian descent living in the Philippines.
Steven Seagal received $250,000 plus 750,000 B2G tokens for advertising. However, according to him, he broke the agreement when he had doubts about the "honesty of the project." According to Segal's manager, “the star fell victim to deception like everyone else.”
The charges were brought against 16 participants in the scheme, most of them of Serbian origin. They are accused of bank fraud and money laundering. This group performed about 20 cryptocurrency scams and defrauded investors for a total of $70 million. As for Segal, he agreed to pay a $300,000 fine for illegally advertising securities.

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone predicted bitcoin to rise to $100,000 in a new report. He noted the strong support for digital gold and Ethereum in recent months and the start of the growth phase of these assets. “Bitcoin seems to have found support around the $30,000 mark, just as it did at $4,000 in early 2019. We see parallels with those events and, apparently, bitcoin may well reach $100,000. "
The analyst added that the bulls are preparing for the next step in the cryptocurrency market. He also stressed that the BTC rate was below the 20-week moving average for a long time, which indicates a sell-off of this cryptocurrency among "weak" buyers.
"Bitcoin is becoming digital gold in the world going in this direction, and Ethereum is evolving as a platform for digitalizing finance," said senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

- AMC Theatres, a major cinema chain which owns 593 theaters in the United States and 335 abroad, will introduce the first cryptocurrency as a method to pay for tickets. The system for accepting cryptocurrency payments will be ready by the end of the year and is designed to increase sales amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to The Wrap.

- A well-known crypto strategist and trader nicknamed Crypto Dog predicts a serious bullish growth in BTC and ETH. "Bitcoin will get to $50,000 very soon." With regard to Ethereum, the analyst believes that with a new 30-day high of $3,182, ETH's all-time high is just around the corner.
As for the ETH/BTC pair, the strategist believes that it has upside potential of at least 40% from the current level of 0.07 BTC: "After crossing the 0.068 BTC level, I expect a strong rally to the level above 0.1 BTC."

- The Italian authorities have closed 32 Telegram groups in which thousands of people were offered to buy fake Green Pass. This document allows Italians who have already received at least one COVID-19 vaccine, recently recovered from the virus or tested negative, to visit cinemas, gyms, museums, restaurants, etc. Criminals preferred payments in cryptocurrency. There was no fixed price; on average, a fake document could be purchased for 500 euros or 588 dollars.

- Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Willy Wu believes that the bitcoin rate should rise in order to correct the supply/demand imbalance in the market. Based on fundamentals, Bitcoin's fair rate is $53,200, Wu said. However, he warned that fundamental factors do not allow forecasting for a short period, but with sufficient time, they will fully justify themselves.
Another analyst, Will Clemente, agreed with Wu's opinion and noted that, based on the bitcoin liquidity data from the Glassnode analytical platform, he predicted its growth to about $53,000 back on July 31.

- Israel's National Intelligence Agency Mossad has posted a job list on its website that features a tech expert on cryptocurrencies. The intelligence service did not specify what tasks the specialist would have to meet. However, the Ynet news outlet suggested that Mossad is interested in using the cryptocurrency, including for organizing payments to its agents.

- Bridgewater Associates billionaire founder Ray Dalio does not rule out bitcoin growth, but still prefers gold. Dalio has stated that he holds a "very small volume" of bitcoin. “If you put a gun to my head and let me choose only one of the two, I’ll choose gold,” he said.
At the same time, the billionaire admitted that bitcoin is still an important tool for diversifying portfolios: "There are certain assets that are worth holding to diversify a portfolio, and bitcoin is a kind of digital gold."

- The US Senate sent a bill to the House of Representatives on Tuesday, August 10, according to which miners, wallet developers, liquidity providers in DeFi protocols, etc. can be required to report to the IRS on the activities of their users. However, as it stands, the bill's requirements are not technically feasible, for which the document has been repeatedly criticized by the most prominent representatives of the crypto industry, including Elon Musk.

- Due to a hacker attack, the protocol for communication of various blockchains Poly Network lost $611 million. This is the largest damage in the entire history of the space of decentralized finance and cryptocurrencies as such. The previous anti-record was held by the Japanese exchange Coincheck, which lost over $500 million in NEM tokens in 2018.
The current attack stole $273 million in Ethereum blockchain tokens, $253 million in Binance Smart Chain blockchain tokens and $85 million in USDC stablecoin.

- Tom Lee, head of the analytical company Fundstrat, recalled the "golden rule" for crypto investors on CNBC. He has always encouraged to buy bitcoin every time once the quotes cross the 200-day moving average (MA 200) from the bottom up. Starting in 2017, in three out of five cases, the closing of the daily candle above this line was the beginning of a gradual increase in trading volumes and the development of long-term upward trends that lasted from 4 months to a year.
Two failures, according to Tom Lee, do not in any way cancel his "golden rule", since in these cases the BTC rate managed to rise enough for traders to protect their positions from any loss.
Tom Lee also reiterated his prediction that he sees bitcoin in the region of $100-120k in 2022. The new wave of demand will be driven by rising global inflation and technological changes in cryptocurrency.
Note that Tom Lee is the brother of the creator of Litecoin, but this time he did not discuss the future of this coin.

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Stan NordFX
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 16 - 20, 2021



EUR / USD: it's All About the Labor Market

The forecast given last week has come true 100%. Recall that 70% of experts suggested that EUR/USD will test the late March low at 1.1700 once again. And it did drop to the level of 1.1705 as early as Wednesday. However, the drivers for further strengthening the US currency were not enough, and the pair was moving in reverse, north, for the second half of the week.

It reached weekly highs on Friday, August 13, climbing to the 1.1800 horizon, and completed the five-day period at 1.1795, the best gain in recent months. This happened during the American session due to a sharp drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, the value of which dropped to the December 2011 low: from 80.2 to 70.2 points. This indicator is based on a survey of consumers and measures their confidence in US economic growth. Simply put, it evaluates their willingness to spend money. Other indicators presented by the university also fell short of expectations.

The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stressed that the timing of curtailing the monetary stimulus (QE) program and raising interest rates directly depends on the acceleration of inflation and a full recovery of the US labor market. But it turns out that Americans' desire to shop is on the wane, which does nothing to boost inflation and meet the Fed's goals.

On the back of disappointing data from the University of Michigan, the DXY dollar index dipped to 92.50, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 have once again renewed their highs, reaching 35612.25 and 4467.13, respectively.

Interestingly, US stock indices have been growing recently both when economic releases delight investors and when they upset them. This is apparently due to the pumping of the market with a huge amount of dollars under the QE program. Investors simply have nowhere to put it, especially since the Fed's interest rates are extremely low now. So you have to invest it in stocks.

But the voices of the “hawks” that it is time to end with QE can be heard more and more clearly inside the US Central Bank itself. According to 28 out of 43 Reuters experts, the Fed will announce the start of the program's curtailment in September. More than a third of respondents believe that this will happen in November-December. The decline in asset purchases, according to 60% of the experts surveyed, will start in Q1 2022, almost everyone else believes it will happen even earlier, in Q4 this year.

Starting to wind down fiscal stimulus is extremely likely to lead to outflows from the stock market and strengthen the dollar. But so far, there is no clarity on the timing, and there is no certainty in the opinions of experts. Assessing the prospects of the EUR/USD pair for the near future, 30% vote for its growth and 35% for the fall and for the sideways trend along the horizon of 1.1800.

There is no unity among indicators either. It is clear that after the jump on Friday the 13th, most of them, including graphical analysis, are colored green. Although here, too, 25% of oscillators are already giving signals that the pair is overbought. As for D1, it is simply impossible to give preference to any of the colors: one third of the oscillators are colored green, one third - red, and one third - neutral gray. As for the trend indicators on D1, the majority (65%) indicate the continuation of the medium-term downtrend, and the pair's desire to test the support of 1.1705 once again. If it succeeds, it will encounter a strong support in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. If the bulls win, then the resistances are located at levels 1.1840, 1.1910 and 1.1975.

Of the events of the coming week, which may affect trends, it is worth noting the release of Eurozone GDP data for Q2, as well as US retail sales and inflation data. These releases will be out on Tuesday August 17. And the next day, August 18, the minutes of the FOMC meeting of the US Fed will be published, from which experts will try to understand whose side, pigeons or hawks, is advantageous now relative to the timing of the QE folding.

GBP/USD: Waiting for the Start of QE

As expected, data released on Thursday August 12 showed strong UK GDP growth in Q2 2021, from minus 1.6% to plus 4.8%. However, this coincided with the forecast completely and therefore did not make a special impression on the market. But the University of Michigan data caused GBP/USD to soar 85 points, from 1.3790 to 1.3875, and end the trading session almost where it started, in 1.3868.

Prior to the release of this data, many experts expected the pair's downtrend which started in late July to continue. Commerzbank specialists called the June 21 low of 1.3786 as initial support, after breaking which the pair will consistently drop to the lows on July 02 (1.3735) and April 12 (1.3669). The target is the July 20 low at 1.3571.

A similar scenario was suggested by the analysts of the Singapore-based OCBC Bank, who named the levels 1.3779 and 1.3732. The economists of the French Societe Generale agreed with this, believing that the combination of a strong dollar and a weak pound would lead the GBP/USD pair to fall below 1.3750.

However, none of that has happened yet. And it is appropriate to cite here the opinion of Credit Suisse experts, according to which the pair has completed the formation of a bullish reversal pattern. But to continue its growth, it needs to rise above 1.3895. Then the next targets will be closing above 55-DMA at 1.3920, and then zone 1.3978-1.4010.

As for the readings of the indicators, they are similar to the readings of their "colleagues" for the previous pair, EUR/USD. Although there is some advantage of greens on H4, it is not possible to be guided by their signals now.

Among the important macro statistics for the pound next week is the release of UK labour market data on Tuesday August 17 and on the consumer market on Wednesday August 18. However, even if both turn out to be positive, it is still not worth waiting for clear signals from the Bank of England about the timing of its QE curtailment.

USD/JPY: North Following Treasury Yields

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Last week we named our forecast for this pair “North Following Treasury Yields”. In the current one, only one word has been replaced, "North" for "South".

The previous title has fully justified itself. As anticipated, USD/JPY grew in the first half of the week, reaching the height of 110.80 on August 11. However, then “something went wrong”, the pair turned around and flew down, putting the last chord at 109.55. The first reason is repeated many times above. An additional advantage to the Japanese safe-haven currency was given by the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. This indicator dropped sharply by 4.5%, reaching a weekly low of 1.3%.

The USD/JPY pair finished five days substantially below the key 110.00 horizon, and experts say this does not bode well for the dollar. (Of course it's about the near term). Thus, 45% of analysts vote for the continuation of the downtrend, another 45% prefer a sideways trend, and only 10% believe that the bulls will be able to turn the pair northward again.

As for the trend indicators, there is also a clear advantage on the side of the reds: 100% side with them on H4, 75% on D1. There is not a single one among the oscillators on H4 that would point to the north. True, 25% have taken a neutral position, and out of 75% of those looking down, almost half are in the oversold zone. On D1, 65% point south, 20% point west, and 15% point north.

Support levels are 109.35, 109.05 and 108.70, the target of the bears is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the zone 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

Among the week's events would be the release of preliminary Japanese GDP figures for Q2 2021 (forecast: growth from minus 1.0% to plus 0.2%). However, as the practice shows, this will have little effect on the pair's behavior. The main focus should be on US macro statistics. And it could quite break the current trend and re-send the pair north.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is Crypto Winter Canceled?

“Investors hope that the crypto freeze has passed, and instead of the crypto winter, the crypto spring came straight away,” - this is how we described the situation in this market in the previous review. The past week did not spoil the spring mood. Bitcoin has heaped by about 12% in seven days and is approaching $47,800 at the time of writing. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased over the same period from $1.67 trillion to $1.957 trillion, and the day it will once again cross the bar of $2.0 tn seems not far off. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it finally moved from the central zone to the green part of the scale, rising from 52 points to 70. At the same time, it is still far away to a state of severe overbought, which foreshadow a strong correction. And it gives investors hope that the day will come when the BTC/USD pair updates its historic high.

In addition to optimists, of course there are enough pessimists in the market. Including those among recognized professionals. For example, Bridgewater Associates billionaire founder Ray Dalio does not rule out bitcoin growth, but still prefers gold. Dalio has stated that he holds a "very small volume" of bitcoin. “If you put a gun to my head and let me choose only one of the two, I’ll choose gold,” he said.

Reputable bankers like Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and fellow JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon continue to criticize cryptocurrency. But at the same time, they and many other banks continue to actively implement services related to digital assets. And analysts at JPMorgan predicted BTC's rise to $146,000 earlier in the year.

Disputes about where it is better to invest money, in precious metal or in cryptocurrencies, do not subside. At the same time, simple calculations show the obvious superiority of bitcoin. The price of gold has fallen by about 5.5% over the past 10 years. As for the core cryptocurrency, it grew 571,000% during the same time. That is, having invested only two dollars in bitcoin then, you would be a millionaire by now. In the last five years alone, gold has fallen in price against bitcoin by 25 times.

The numbers speak for themselves. But the reliability of investments cannot be forgotten. Between 2010 and 2015, the price of gold experienced a maximum drop, losing approximately 40% in five years. But if you look at the April-May chart this year, you'll see that bitcoin lost the same 40% in just four weeks!

Investing in cryptocurrencies requires significantly stronger nerves and a safety margin. During the rapid collapse of the crypto market, some get rid of their coins, succumbing to panic. Others, on the other hand, see such corrections as an excellent buying opportunity.

According to Tom Lee, head of research firm Fundstrat, the “golden rule” for crypto investors is to buy bitcoin every time the quotes cross the 200-day moving average (MA 200) from the bottom up. Starting in 2017, in three out of five cases, the closing of the daily candle above this line was the beginning of a gradual increase in trading volumes and the development of long-term upward trends that lasted from 4 months to a year. Two failures, according to Tom Lee, do not in any way cancel his "golden rule", since in these cases the BTC rate managed to rise enough for traders to protect their positions from any loss.

Tom Lee also reiterated his prediction that he sees bitcoin in the region of $100,000-120,000 in 2022. Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone pointed to the same level of $100,000 in his latest report. “Bitcoin seems to have found support around the $30,000 mark, just as it did at $4,000 in early 2019. We see parallels with those events and, apparently, bitcoin may well reach $100,000," he wrote.

More modest predictions were given by three other crypto experts. Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Willie Wu believes that, based on fundamentals, the fair price for bitcoin is $53,200. However, he warned that fundamental factors do not allow forecasting for a short period, but with sufficient time, they will fully justify themselves.

Another analyst, Will Clemente, agreed with Wu's opinion and noted that, based on the bitcoin liquidity data from the Glassnode analytical platform, he predicted its growth to about $53,000 back on July 31. The well-known crypto strategist with the nickname Crypto Dog confirmed these predictions. In his opinion, "bitcoin will get to $50,000 very soon."

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Journalists of the world media drew attention to the online speech of Jerome Powell to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”.
While Powell just theorizes about supporting cryptocurrencies, the US Congress may well arrange a mini "To the Moon" in the near future. First, the congressmen forced the US Treasury to prepare an explanatory guide that exempts all participants in the crypto market from submitting tax reports, except for brokers.
And two senators decided to go even further and introduced a bill simplifying the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) guidelines for miners, wallet operators, and others. FATF is now trying to achieve complete deanonymization of all blockchain transactions by forcing crypto industry members to implement the “travel rules” option. It applies to fiat transfers, where the bank will not accept payment without verified data.

- An unknown hacker has hacked a major Legalizer forum on drug trafficking in the former USSR countries. He posted some of the information in public access, the rest is sold by the hacker for at least 1 BTC. The information in the database includes among other passport data of the alleged owners of the forum, customer contacts and their correspondence.
The owner and developer of Legalizer is listed as a Latvian citizen, one of the ex-developers is a resident of the Moscow region of Russia, and the current administrator is a Ukrainian citizen. According to the Blockchair service, 20.57 BTC (about $935,000 at the time of writing) went through the drug forum's cryptocurrency wallet.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. According to him, bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst said.
The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move. “The prospects are quite good, and if we manage to stay at this level as support, then we will have pleasant surprises,” he said.

- The largest American retailer Walmart (more than 11,700 hypermarkets in 28 countries) has opened a vacancy for the head of the cryptocurrency business. The new position provides for the creation and management of the digital asset development strategy. Recall that back in 2019, The Block, citing a patent application from Walmart, announced the company's plans to launch its own stablecoin.

- A popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named four altcoins that are ready for a rally and can surpass BTC in profitability.
The first pair on the list is XRP/BTC. According to the trader, it is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DoAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.
Next on the list is the popular Bitcoin Cash (BCH) altcoin. According to the trader, the BCH/BTC pair managed to stay above the key support level and is now ready to reach 0.02 BTC, as the next resistance level is about 50 per cent higher. The third asset is VeChain (VET), and at the bottom of the list is Tron (TRX).

- Bloomberg chief analyst Eric Balchunas suggested that a programmer from California Hal Finney was hiding behind the alias of the bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. He is known in the crypto community as one of the early supporters of bitcoin, who participated in the development of the cryptocurrency, and also conducted the first bitcoin transaction with Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. The programmer died in 2014 at the age of 58 due to a serious illness.
The chief analyst at Bloomberg gained confidence that Finney was the creator of bitcoin after reading a message on the forum that the programmer sent back in 1993. Finney described there the idea of cryptocurrency trading cards, the principle of which is similar to the technology of non-fungible tokens (NFT).
It became known this spring that the fortune of the creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto, who, according to various estimates, owns from 750 thousand to 1.1 million BTC, exceeded $61 billion.

- Residents of India, the second most populous country in the world, can now receive cashback in bitcoins. The card, issued by GoSats and available online, allows users to earn BTC when shopping at major stores such as Amazon, Starbucks and Flipkart.
The new product is being rolled out by GoSats in partnership with the non-profit National Payment Corporation of India, which promotes digital services across the country. This corporation was founded in December 2008 and is directly owned by the Reserve Bank of India, which should help avoid any regulatory hurdles from the authorities.

- As it turns out, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model developed by popular cryptanalyst PlanB so far. Plan B gave his forecast for the coming months in June 2021, when BTC was trading below $35,000. According to him, the price of BTC should reach $135,000 by the end of this December.

- Along with the current spike in prices, bitcoin has also shown significant improvement in network metrics. In particular, bitcoin miners have continued to accumulate, their balance has grown steadily over the past month. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin, so they do not want to take profits now.
Santiment, a web data analysis firm, also reported encouraging data for investors. It reports that the supply of bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”

- Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone speaks once again in favor of the first cryptocurrency. In his opinion, BTC is capable of replacing gold as an asset for hedging risks and accumulating wealth, "and the efforts of American regulators are unlikely to be able to prevent this."
Michael McGlone stressed that “digitizing money and the financial industry” is giving bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time, gold does not have any strong drivers for growth, according to the analyst.
According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term.

- According to a study conducted in the United States, LGBTQ representatives were among the most active crypto investors. One in four Americans in this category has invested in digital currency.
The surge in such interest is due to both positive and negative factors. Yosef Bonaparte, a professor at the University of Colorado, explains that gender discrimination, on average, reduces a person's chances of trading the stock market by 40%. Many members of the community have low incomes and are embarrassed to apply to traditional investment funds due to the huge amounts that the latter demand as payment for services. The key factor behind the growth in the number of crypto investors in the LGBTQ camp is the near-zero threshold for entering this market.

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Stan NordFX
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NordFX Broker Becomes the Most Transparent Broker-2021



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In mid-August, NordFX brokerage company received its first award this year. Experts from one of the major financial portals and business award organizations, World Forex Award (WFA), named NordFX the Most Transparent Broker-2021.

This award is important primarily because transparency is one of the most important factors, the same as financial performance, technology, risk, etc., that allows traders, investors and partners to assess the reliability of a company.

Before reaching their verdict, WFA experts assessed whether the information the company provides to stakeholders is open, complete and timely, and expressed in an understandable form required for objective decisions. An important role was played by the fact that NordFX had practically no claims from the state bodies of its regulation for 13 years of its work in the financial markets, and controversial issues that sometimes arose with clients were resolved openly and, if necessary, with the involvement of independent experts.

It should be noted that NordFX business policy focuses on all three main areas of transparency: openness, clarity and accuracy of information. This applies both to the documents governing client and partner relationships, as well as the description of trading terms, including speed of order execution, spreads and commissions during transactions and when depositing/withdrawing funds.

Promotions run by NordFX are no exception. A fresh example here is the super lottery, where 100,000 USD is drawn among traders this year. Any client of the company can take part in this lottery, who can check the correctness of the accrual of lottery tickets in real time on the company's website, and the draws are held online, making it possible for anyone to follow the prize draw on the Internet.
Stan NordFX
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 23 - 27, 2021



EUR/USD: Fed Needs Strong Dollar, ECB Needs Weak Euro

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A previous review named the publication of the US Fed's FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday 18 August as the most important event of the past week. This document was supposed to clarify the situation regarding the timing of the curtailment of the monetary stimulus (QE) program. Of course, 100% clarity never came out. Some Fed executives still believe that it is necessary to start winding down stimulus at the earliest in spring 2022. However, there is also the opposite view that a parting with QE should happen before the end of this year. And it was this view that led to another decline in investor risk appetites and a further strengthening of the dollar.

Stock indexes - the Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite, have been falling since the start of the week, with the release of the minutes pushing them further down. And while a certain wave of purchases could be observed after each pullback, the trend still remains downward: the market gets rid of stocks, preferring dollars. The DXY index, which tracks the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies, heaped nearly 1.3 per cent over the week, rising from 92.500 to 93.700.

In addition to anticipating the early start of QE, the new strain of Delta coronavirus is also pressing the stock and commodity markets. In anticipation of new lockdowns, investors fear for the fate of both the global economy as a whole and its locomotive, the US economy. According to the Ministry of Health, the number of new infections totaled more than 268,000 in one day on August 17 alone, which compares with the peaks of the beginning of the year.

That being said, the US job market feels pretty good at all. At least for now. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 377 thousand to 348 thousand for the week, which is much better than the forecast of 363 thousand. This has been the best indicator since the beginning and has benefited the dollar.

Another source of support for the USD was the widening spreads between the yields of US and foreign bonds. Foreign investors support and will support the demand for dollars in order to then purchase American Treasuries.

Because of the above factors, the result of the past week was the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by 130 points. having started Monday from 1.1795, EUR/USD groped the local bottom at 1.1665 by the end of the week and finished five days in 1.1700.

A strong dollar is needed by the Fed to reassure investors about unmanageable inflation. Therefore, new, clearer signals regarding the folding of QE can be expected from this regulator. But the ECB is not at all opposed to further weakening of the euro, which has been repeatedly stated by the head of the bank Christine Lagarde. So, according to many experts, the downtrend of the EUR/USD pair will continue in the medium term.

The pair has now fallen below the low of April 01, 2021, 1.1704, and if this breakdown is confirmed, the next targets will be the lows of last autumn in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. If it is able to overcome this barrier, it will open a road to targets in zones 1.1450 and 1.1240. A 300-400 point path is likely to take a month or two to overcome. But if the Fed announces the completion of QE, the pair will fly that distance in a matter of days. This development is supported by 65% of experts.

The remaining 35% believe that the dollar may take a pause in its growth and the EUR/USD pair will return to the 1.1700-1.1900 range for a while. The nearest targets here are 1.1750 and 1.1830.

In terms of technical analysis, D1 has 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators painted red. The remaining 25% oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold.

In the coming week, we should note the publication of Markit's German and Eurozone PMI on Monday 23 August, as well as of capital orders goods and durable goods in the US on Wednesday 25 August. On Thursday, we'll find out preliminary US GDP figures. In addition, the annual symposium will be held in Jackson Hole from August 26 to 28, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday.

GBP/USD: Escape from the Pound

If the pound could still struggle with the dollar two weeks ago, it surrendered all its positions last week. Investors rushed to secure assets due to the rapid spread of the Delta strain and its impact on the global economic recovery. Plus, the possible winding down of QE in the USA. And then the Gfk UK Consumer Confidence Index fell from minus 7 in July to minus 8 in August, the worst performance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, GBP/USD falls almost 270 points to mid-term support in the 1.3600 zone and finishes at 1.3622.

We would like to remind that in the previous forecast, the specialists of the German Commerzbank designated the July 20 low at 1.3571 as the target for the pair. Given the slight backlash, this forecast proved correct. And now they say that in its fall, the pair may test the 200-week moving average at 1.3146. The strongest support along the way is located in the 1.3480 and 1.3200 zones.

South is also indicated by 100% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators on D1. However, only 30 per cent of experts agree with them among analysts. The remaining 70% believe that the British currency's potential for resistance is far from exhausted, especially if the Bank of England takes a more active position. 35% of oscillators in the oversold zone talk of a possible reversal to the north as well. The nearest resistance is at 1.3725, the nearest target is the return of GBP/USD to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

Of the most significant macro statistics to be released next week, the publication of Markit's UK services business index on Monday 23 August can be singled out.

USD/JPY: Yen Is Not Afraid of Dollar

Against the backdrop of investors” defection from risk, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, successfully resists the dollar's gaining strength. Since past March, USD/JPY has been moving along the 110.00 horizon, making rare attempts to get outside the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.55 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.80, and the range of fluctuations barely exceeded 110 points: from 109.10 at the low to 110.22 at the high.

This behavior of the pair forces both experts and indicators to make very contradictory forecasts. Among the first, 45% side with the bulls, 35% side with the bears and 20% take a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 35% are colored red, 15% - green, 50% - neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of green.

Support levels are 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Lull Before the Storm?

Bitcoin has slowly and uncertainly creeped up all week, trying to overcome a strong level of resistance around $48,000. Two attempts, on August 14 and 16, ended in failure, after which BTC/USD rolled back to the support of $44,000. At the time of writing this review, towards the end of Friday, August 20, it went to the assault again, broke through the resistance and reached the level of $49,000 in the thin market.

The total crypto market capitalization increased over the week from $1.957 trillion to $2.043 trillion, that is, by just 4.4%. And, although it has overcome the $2.0 trillion bar, it is not at all a fact that it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also remained still at 70 points.

This sluggishness and uncertainty may be due to the fact that large institutional investors are currently focusing on the traditional market. But we must not forget that mid-August is the height of the holiday period, and many traders will not step up until the end of the month.

Very strong drivers are needed to dramatically push the market up or down. World media reporters drew attention to Jerome Powell's online speech to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”. But for now, the head of the Federal Reserve's reasoning about supporting cryptocurrencies is only theoretical.

Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone also spoke in favor of the first cryptocurrency, who emphasized that “digitalizing money and the financial industry” gives bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time gold, according to the analyst, has no strong drivers for growth, and BTC is therefore quite capable of replacing this metal as an asset for risk hedging and wealth accumulation.

According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term. The well-known cryptanalyst PlanB calls a slightly bigger figure. In his opinion, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model he developed very closely, so the BTC/USD pair should reach $135,000 by the end of December.

Of course, all these figures are only the assumptions of specialists. Another cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. Bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst says.

The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move.

Santiment, a web data analysis firm, reported encouraging data for investors. Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”

Bitcoin miners are also in no hurry to part with their coins, over the past month, their balance has grown steadily. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin as well, so they do not want to take profits now.

Despite the fact that the dominance of bitcoin has decreased from 69.7% to 43.8% since the beginning of the year, this coin is without a doubt still the main engine of the digital market. It is clear that the main competitor for BTC at the moment is ethereum. On some exchanges, it overtakes the reference cryptocurrency in terms of trading volumes already. And according to some experts, such as the head of the deVere Group Nigel Green, ETH may push bitcoin to second place in a few years.

As for the closer prospects, the popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named several altcoins that are ready for a rally and may surpass BTC in profitability in the near future. The first on the list is ripple. According to the trader, the XRP/BTC pair is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DonAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.

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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews of the Week

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- MicroStrategy acquired additional 3,907 BTC worth about $177 million on August 24. The average purchase price was $45,294 per coin, including commissions and other expenses.
In total, this analytics provider has invested more than $2.9 billion in digital gold. Now there is a total of 108,992 BTC on MicroStrategy's balance sheet. At the time of writing, the value of this cryptocurrency is estimated at $5.25 billion.

- El Salvador has begun preparing infrastructure related to the entry into force of the law to recognize bitcoin as an official means of payment. Operations with this cryptocurrency will be available at 200 ATMs and 50 bank branches by September 7. Residents will be able to withdraw cash 24 hours a day without any commission.
Head of State Nayib Bukele assured that ATMs will appear in all parts of El Salvador in the future. “What if someone is not interested in bitcoin? Keep living your ordinary life. Nobody is going to take your dollars. You can always queue up at Western Union and pay a commission,” Bukele stated. The President of El Salvador estimates that citizens lose about $400 million on remittances fees each year.

- Trend Micro experts found over 120 fake applications for cloud mining of cryptocurrencies in the Google Play Store. Some of them have been downloaded over 100,000 times. Malware does not have a mining feature, according to the study. However, they charge users a monthly fee of about $15 and additional payments allegedly for “enhanced mining opportunities.” Some apps require a prepayment.
Following Trend Micro's appeal to Google, eight fraudulent apps were removed. These include BitFunds, Bitcoin Miner, Daily Bitcoin Rewards, Crypto Holic, MineBit Pro, Bitcoin 2021, Ethereum - Pool Mining Cloud and Bitcoin (BTC) crypto wallet - Pool Mining Cloud Wallet. However, according to Trend Micro, about 120 malware is still available for download.

- A 24-year-old electronic engineer from Pretoria (South Africa) could now be richer by about $1 million but lost the wallet data with 20 BTC mined 10 years ago. He mined the cryptocurrency at school age. To do this, he used a computer with 512 GB of RAM. “I don’t remember exactly how much time I was mining, but it lasted about a couple of months continuously,” the failed millionaire recalls. Eventually he got fed up with it, as the computer could not be used for other tasks, and the cryptocurrency cost virtually nothing. During that year, the price of the first cryptocurrency rose from $0.0008 to $0.08.
Then he lost the paper with the key and password from the bitcoin wallet, and at some point, while cleaning the computer, he also deleted the data file. Some seven years later, with the price of the cryptocurrency already reaching $1,000, the engineer made an attempt to gain access to the mined coins. “I remember collecting all the HDDs, memory cards, CDs and DVDs in the house and carefully reviewing each one. It took about a week." However, there was no happy end.
Chainanalysis estimates that about 20% of mined bitcoins are in lost or forgotten cryptocurrency wallets at the moment.

- American banking giant Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to begin trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Citigroup will therefore become another megabank after Goldman Sachs offering similar opportunities
The bank is also reported to be actively picking up staff for its cryptocurrency team in London.

- A constant critic of bitcoin, president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Inc., Peter Schiff admitted that the price of BTC could still show impressive growth, reaching $100,000.
Schiff is known as the man who takes every opportunity to strike at cryptocurrency and call for the purchase of gold. And now, in an interview with Coin Stories, this "golden beetle" expressed regret for not making investments in bitcoin on time. Despite all the negative things said about the first cryptocurrency, Schiff still did not undertake to dispute the fact that BTC is a great store of value. In fact, the ROI on bitcoin has been 8,900,000% over the past decade.
“I wish I had bought bitcoin when I first heard about it - it was a serious mistake,” the financier admitted. "I could invest $100,000 in it, yes, I could. Instead, I invested that $100,000 in other things that failed. Now I could become a bitcoin billionaire because I knew about it early on. If I could go back in time, I would have acted differently,” Schiff lamented.
At the same time, he remains bearish and excludes the possibility that the asset will ever be massively used as a means of payment. According to the financier, the only merit of bitcoin is that people speculate on it.

- Earlier, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone repeatedly predicted the growth of BTC to $100,000. But, according to the expert, the mainstream of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization can become an obstacle to growth. People are beginning to realize that ethereum is “the building block for all financial technology, DeFi and infrastructure in a world that is going digital,” McGlone said.
The expert named non-fungible tokens (NFT) as another powerful support for the price of the main altcoin. Such assets are becoming extremely popular and are mostly issued on the ETH blockchain.
In doing so, McGlone called former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal's forecast of Ethereum growth to $20,000 as overstated. But also, the price will not fall below $2,000, rather the rate will exceed $4,000, according to the analyst.

- Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin is much more optimistic about the future of this altcoin. He expects that after the recent London hardfork and implementation of EIP-1559, the ETH price will be 10 times higher than current levels and reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of this altcoin would reach $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all the major technology companies in the world.

— An Australian entrepreneur promised to pay BTC worth $5 to everyone who gets a coronavirus vaccination.
The Mayor of Cool Valley, Missouri (USA) is planning a much more generous reward. He announced his intention to donate $500 to $1000 in BTC to each of the 1,500 Cool Valley residents, as he believes this cryptocurrency has the potential to make them rich. “I have friends whose lives have completely changed: from ordinary workers with a working schedule from nine to five, they have become owners of a fortune of more than $80 million in a few years,” the mayor explained his initiative. At the same time, he put forward one condition: recipients will not be able to sell their bitcoins for five years, which, according to the mayor, will allow them to wait for the price of BTC to rise to half a million dollars.
Residents of the city reacted to this initiative very positively, so the mayor has a lot of chances to be re-elected for a new term.

- With the start of another bitcoin rally, some major players predict that cryptocurrency will reach new record levels by the end of the year. The survey was conducted by Elwood Asset Management, with 55 out of an estimated 175 cryptocurrency hedge funds.
According to the data, 65% of these hedge funds predict that bitcoin will be trading in the $50,000 to $100,000 range by the end of 2021. 21% of those surveyed named a price between $100,000 and $150,000. And only 1% of hedge funds predicts that the asset's value will be below $50,000.
63% of hedge funds believe that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will be in the range of $2 trillion to $5 trillion, with another 11% estimating a market capitalization of between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 30 - September 03, 2021



EUR/USD: Three Hawks and a Dove in Jackson Hole

The return of the EUR/USD pair to 1.1700-1.1900 was predicted by 35% of experts supported by 25% of oscillators that showed it was oversold. After renewing the annual low of 1.1665 on August 20, the pair did go into a correction, reaching 1.1775 on Thursday.

The week's economic statistics proved weak enough for both the US and Eurozone, and all market attention has been shifted to the annual Jackson Hole symposium, running from 26 to 28 August. There were speeches by three representatives of the US Fed leadership, which turned out to be even more hawkish than investors had expected.

So the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard said that the asset purchase program is doing the US economy more harm than good at the moment by inflating another soap bubble in the real estate market. According to Esther George, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the current outbreak of the pandemic caused by the Delta strain will not have a significant impact on the economic situation in the country, and it would be better if the process of winding down QE starts earlier than later.

Robert Kaplan from Dallas joined his fellow hawks. Thus, the overall sentiment of these three high Federal Reserve officials can be reduced to the desire to start reducing asset purchases as early as the first and early second quarter of 2022, in the amount of $15 billion per month. Such a pace will allow the US central bank to raise its interest rate by the end of next year.

Fed chief Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole symposium at the very end of the working week, on the evening of Friday August 27. Some investors hoped that his position would be significantly softer than that of the Bullard-George-Kaplan trio. Otherwise, it could have dealt a major blow to the stock market, knocking down major indices including the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite. The bulls on the DXY dollar index, on the contrary, would be fazed by Jerome Powell's hawkish speeches. And although the consensus is gradually shifting to the fact that the regulator will announce the start of reducing monetary stimulus in November and will start implementing its plans in December-January, there was no need to wait for exact dates from the head of the Federal Reserve. That's exactly what happened: the high official said discussions about timing were still under way, that the issue would depend on economic and health risks, and that the central bank would continue to take a patient approach to their policies. The dollar weakened sharply after these words, and stock indices, on the contrary, updated historical highs once again.

Experts and investors have yet to analyze the likelihood of monetary restriction beginning in a period or another. So far, after some hesitation following Mr Powell's vaguely dovish position, the EUR/USD pair flew north, recorded a local high at 1.1802 and ended the five-day level at 1.1795.

Talking about the future, only 30% of the experts surveyed voted for the further growth of the pair, with the next targets of 1.1830 and 1.1900. The remaining 70% of analysts have taken the opposite view. They believe that the pair should retest the 1.1665 level. The nearest support is 1.1750 and 1.1700. The position of the indicators in total can be described as neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 50% indicate a rise in the pair, 25% indicate a fall, and another 25% are colored neutral gray. As for trend indicators, 80% look south and 20% look north.

The coming week's events include the release of German consumer market statistics on August 30 and September 01. Similar statistics for the Eurozone will be released on August 31 and September 03. As for the US, the ADP report on the employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the country will be published on September 1. And on the first Friday of the month, September 03, we will traditionally learn the most important indicators from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Overall, GBP/USD dynamics was reminiscent of the previous pair's movements. After reaching a low of 1.3600 on August 20, a rebound followed as a result of which the British pound rose to the mark 1.3767 on Thursday, August 26, as predicted by most (70%) experts.

Then came the meeting of American bankers in Jackson Hole and the hawkish speech of the aforementioned leaders of the Federal Reserve Bank, which led to some strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the pair to 1.3680. And then, thanks to the Fed chairman, the American currency began to fall in price again. As already mentioned, the market's hopes that Powell would announce a specific and early date for winding down the asset repurchase program did not come to fruition. As a result, the pair went up sharply, reaching a height of 1.3780, and completed the trading session at 1.3760.

Giving a forecast for the coming week, the majority of analysts (75%) expect the US currency to strengthen and a new storm of the 1.3600 level. If successful, the next target will be the horizon 1.3480. The nearest support is the zone 1.3680-1.3700.

The remaining 25% believe that the growth opportunities for the British currency have not yet been exhausted. The nearest resistance is at 1.3780, the nearest target is the return of the GBP/USD pair to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

As for the oscillators on D1, 40% look south, 50% look east, and only 10% look north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of forces is 60% to 40% in favor of the reds.

USD/JPY: Calm, and Calm Again

Amid market unrest caused by statements from Fed executives, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, is successfully countering any storms. The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.80 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.82, and the range of fluctuations narrows even more: from 109.40 at the low to 110.25 at the high.

This behavior of the pair leads experts to give very versatile predictions. 40% of them have sided with bulls this time, 30% side with bears, and 30% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, one cannot give priority to any of the directions here either.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: at the Crossroads

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We put a question in the heading of the previous review. "The Lull Before the Storm?" - that is what it was. We also noted that powerful drivers will be needed to push bitcoin quotes above the current levels. But there were no drivers, so the storm hasn't happened yet. Although the news background is generally quite positive.

Thus, one of the digital market locomotives, MicroStrategy, purchased an additional 3,907 BTC on August 24 for about $177 million. The average purchase price was $45,294 per coin. And this suggests that the company does not expect any serious drawdown of the BTC/USD pair, and, on the contrary, expects its further growth.

In total, this analytics software provider has invested more than $2.9 billion in digital gold. Now there is a total of 108,992 BTC on MicroStrategy's balance sheet worth over $5 billion.

American banking giant Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to begin trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Citigroup will therefore become another megabank after Goldman Sachs offering similar opportunities.

Bloomberg experts suggest that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve not one, but several applications for the launch of ETFs on bitcoin futures. The goal is to maintain competition and not give anyone any advantage. The SEC may make its decision by the end of October. And the first European bitcoin futures could be launched as early as mid-September. This was announced by Europe's largest derivatives exchange Eurex.

Having reached the medium-term target, the BTC/USD pair is "stuck" in the $47,000-50,000 range. This zone is a kind of intersection of two roads: horizontal and ascending channels. And the mood of the market for the coming weeks depends on whether the pair will be able to break through the support at the level of $47,000.

In terms of medium- to long-term forecasts, they remain positive overall. This was shown by a survey conducted by Elwood Asset Management with 55 out of approximately 175 cryptocurrency hedge funds. According to the data, 65% of these hedge funds predict that bitcoin will be trading in the $50,000 to $100,000 range by the end of 2021. 21% of those surveyed named a price between $100,000 and $150,000. And only 1% of hedge funds predicts that the asset's value will be below $50,000.

63% of hedge funds believe that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will be in the range of $2 trillion to $5 trillion, with another 11% estimating a market capitalization of between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.

The fact that the price of BTC can show impressive growth, reaching $100,000, was admitted even by the constant critic of bitcoin, the president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff.

This "golden beetle" is known as the man who takes every opportunity to strike at cryptocurrency and call for the purchase of gold. However, this time, he did not undertake to dispute the fact that BTC is a great store of value. In fact, the ROI on bitcoin has been 8,900,000% over the past decade. At the same time, he remains bearish and excludes the possibility that the asset will ever be massively used as a means of payment. According to the financier, the only merit of bitcoin is that people speculate on it.

Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has also repeatedly predicted BTC's growth to $100,000. But, according to the expert, the mainstream of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization can become an obstacle to growth. People are beginning to realize that ethereum is “the building block for all financial technology, DeFi and infrastructure in a world that is going digital,” McGlone said.

The expert named non-fungible tokens (NFT) as another powerful support for the price of the main altcoin. Such assets are becoming extremely popular and are mostly issued on the ETH blockchain.

At the same time, McGlone considers the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal's forecast of ethereum growth to $20,000 as overstated. But, according to the analyst, the price will not fall below $2,000 either, rather the rate will exceed $4,000.

The creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, is much more optimistic about the future of ethereum. He expects that after the recent London hardfork and implementation of EIP-1559, the ETH price will be 10 times higher than current levels and reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of this altcoin would reach $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all the major technology companies in the world. In the meantime, this figure is about $380 billion.

As far as the total capitalization of the crypto market is concerned, as we suggested in the previous review, there is now a struggle in the area of the psychologically important $2.0tn level. Starting at $2.043 trillion, this figure rose to $2.162 trillion on August 23, it fell to $1.973 trillion by August 27, and it rose again to $2.021 trillion by Friday evening.

Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index froze practically, having risen by only 1 point in a week, from 70 to 71.

And in conclusion, our not-so-serious life hacks column has another tip on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that for this you just need to move to live in Cool Valley in Missouri (USA). The mayor of this town decided to seriously raise the welfare of its 1,500 residents, and to that end promised to transfer $500 to $1,000 to each of them in BTC. At the same time, he put forward one condition: recipients will not be able to sell their bitcoins for five years, which, according to the mayor, will allow them to wait for the price of BTC to rise to half a million dollars.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews of the Week

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- Hundreds of residents rallied in the capital of El Salvador against the legalization of the first cryptocurrency, Euronews reports. Citizens are concerned about possible increases in corruption due to the replacement of the US dollar with bitcoin
The Salvadoran Association of International Freight Carriers has demanded an amendment to the bill, removing the obligation to accept digital gold as payment. Otherwise, industry officials said they would suspend services. But this initiative of the country's President Nayib Bukele, in addition to opponents, has many supporters. In contrast to transport workers, for example, the legalization of bitcoin was supported by the Salvadoran branch of fast-food restaurant chain KFC.

- Another piece of news is from the field of transport. Backed by Internet giant Alibaba, electric car maker Zhiji Auto has developed an app for owners of upcoming IM electric vehicles. With its help, drivers will be able to earn digital currency for the mileage covered.
Motorists will have to enter information about each kilometer they run in order to enter the mining pool. They will receive the Stone digital currency as a reward. The company plans to issue 500 coins 144 times a day for a start. The issue will be halved every four years to maintain liquidity.
The asset can be exchanged for various services of the company. When the car's mileage reaches 5,000 km, its owner will be able to purchase a next-generation smart driving system for coins or increase the battery capacity to 120 kWh.
The IM electric car will go on sale in 2022. According to the manufacturers, the novelty should become a worthy competitor to Tesla: its range on one charge is 1,000 km.

- Venezuelan law enforcers are looking for a 23-year-old man who organized his own kidnapping in order to steal $1.15 million worth of bitcoins from gullible citizens. The attackers allegedly forced him to withdraw the cryptocurrency from the Binance exchange and transfer it to various wallets. The man is accused of fraud and money laundering and is currently on the wanted list.

- Investor John Paulson, whose fortune is estimated by Forbes at $3.5 billion, called the cryptocurrency a "bubble" in an interview with Bloomberg. In his view, the digital asset market will “ultimately prove worthless,” so it is not worth investing in it. “Cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. If the demand is greater than the limited supply, the price will rise. But, if demand falls, the price will also fall. None of the cryptocurrencies have intrinsic value,” Paulson explained his point.
For the record: John Paulson was named the best private asset manager by Alpha magazine 15 years ago, in 2007. Paulson's fund managed to earn $3.7 billion then at the end of the year, despite the mortgage crisis and the collapse of the American market.

- Analyst Aaron Arnold in his YouTube channel (952 thousand subscribers) named the fundamental factors that, in his opinion, will provoke the "explosive" growth of ethereum. He considers a key feature the recent change in the altcoin blockchain, which introduced a digital coin burning mechanism. The London update was released on ethereum network on August 05, which completely changed the transaction fee mechanism. A portion of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is now burned. According to the Ultrasound.Money service, more than 134,800 coins worth over $427 million have already been burned on the ethereum network since the activation of this update. The average burning rate is 3.77 coins per minute.
The analyst considers lower Ethereum net inflation as a second driver of growth. According to Arnold's calculations, it is only 1.1% in annual terms at the moment, while the same indicator for bitcoin is at the level of 1.75%.
Arnold also recalled the multiple growth of funds blocked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. In his view, this is the third factor that contributes to ethereum's price hike. According to DeFi Pulse, if the volume of blocked funds was $16 billion on January 1 of this year, this figure had already reached $82 billion by August 30 (an increase of 412% since the beginning of the year).

- Billionaire investor Bill Miller purchased bitcoin through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Such information is contained in the reporting, which has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to The Block. As of June 30, Miller Opportunity Trust owns 1.5 million GBTC shares worth $44.7 million. The size of this position increased to $59 million by September 1 and is 1.55% in the fund's portfolio.
The second big player whose investment came to light this week is banking giant Morgan Stanley. It has been actively increasing the size of its position in GBTC in recent months. And this is also reflected in the reporting to the SEC. GBTC shares turned out to be included in several of the bank's funds. The largest investment came from Morgan Stanley Insight Fund, which acquired 928.051 GBTC shares for $27.665 million.

- As in other countries around the world, the number of citizens buying digital currencies continues to grow in the USA. And the highest proportion of crypto investors are young people under the age of 35. CNBC revealed that 11% of young US residents invested some of the capital they received in the form of assistance from the state during the coronavirus pandemic in bitcoin and other coins. (By comparison, stocks were picked by 15%).
60% of those who preferred cryptocurrency stated that they are set for long-term storage of this asset. On the contrary, 21% are just waiting for a convenient moment to profitably sell the previously purchased coins.

- The number of vacancies related to cryptocurrency has grown by 118% over the year. Software development was the most sought-after position in this field, with 29.7% of vacancies. In second place are managerial positions with 10%.

- Experts at Kaspersky Lab discovered the Swarez Trojan, which, among other things, stole cryptocurrency wallet data. This was reported by the press service of the company. The peak of activity of the malware occurred in the spring of 2021. The attackers used the games Among Us, Battlefield 4, Battlefield V, Control, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, FIFA 21, Fortnite, GTA V, Minecraft, NBA 2K21, Need for Speed Heat, PUBG, Rust, The Sims 4 and Titanfall 2. Attempts to download such files were recorded in 45 countries.

- Northstar & Badcharts British analyst and co-founder Kevin Wadsworth believes BTC will rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021. After that, the current bullish stage will be completed for the cryptocurrency.
Speaking of the first cryptocurrency, Wadsworth believes that its value will increase "in September, October and, presumably, in November." Some of the leading altcoins (such as ethereum), he said, could also rise significantly, since a rise in prices by 3-4 times is quite likely.

- PlanB analyst is also confident that BTC will break through the $100K level by Christmas. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model.
Bitcoin's prospects for further growth are also indicated by year analysis of cryptocurrency behavior. Analysts at Twitter Root channel are confident that the main driver of BTC is halvings (a 2-time reduction in mining awards). They form a shortage of coins in the market, which positively affects the value of a digital asset. As for bitcoin, it has yet to fulfil the growth potential that halving put into it in May 2020.

-¬Spencer Schiff, son of the famous bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff, wrote that there were big changes in his life in the last year: he went all-in, preferring bitcoin to gold. Back in August 2020, he kept most of his savings in the most popular precious metal but has now decided to transfer all the assets to the main cryptocurrency.
His father Peter Schiff, CEO and global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, has recently tweeted that he considers those who do not sell bitcoins to be "real idiots." He also expressed the opinion that this coin will never reach $100 thousand and compared the hype around the cryptocurrency with tulip mania. However, he also publicly regretted on several occasions that he had not bought bitcoin in the early days of the asset's appearance.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
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