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November 16. Asia created the world's largest trading block

Fifteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region on Sunday formed the world's largest free trade bloc without the participation of the United States, but with the support of China. The new alliance was named the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

It is noted that the countries of the new trading bloc account for 30% of world GDP and almost a third of the world's population, and their total market is 2.2 billion consumers. The RWEP brought together the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

The RWEP could strengthen China's position in relations with Southeast Asia, Japan and Korea, as well as provide the world's second largest economy with leverage to shape the rules of trade in the region. In addition, the new partnership will help China reduce its reliance on foreign markets and technology, which is growing due to deteriorating relations with the United States.
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KostiaForexMart
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November 18. Gold prices drop on news of coronavirus vaccine

Gold price is recovering weakly after a daily decline to $1,866.10 per troy ounce. The current gold quote is $1.883.05.

The pressure on the precious metal is exerted by the news around the coronavirus vaccine. Investors give preference to the acquisition of risky assets, which has a negative impact on the value of gold as a «safe haven asset». Market participants look forward to a return to normal life in the near future and expect further easing of monetary policy in many countries.

It was announced today that the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine has achieved a final 95% efficacy, and Pfizer will submit it for regulatory approval in the United States in the coming days.

At the same time, the American company Moderna said that the results of the third phase of trials of the coronavirus vaccine showed its effectiveness at 94.5%.
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KostiaForexMart
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November 23. Experts predict Europe «long years of pain»

Analyzing the current state of affairs in Europe, experts note that the growth of corporate debts risks turning the region into long «years of pandemic pain».

Analysts are confident that after the crisis support from the state ends, there will be a risk of a wave of defaults and bankruptcies, which will hit the banking sector and further exacerbate the economic downturn.

Debt burden can hinder investment and job creation for years to come. In the first half of this year, eurozone companies borrowed more than 400 billion euros, compared with 289 billion euros for the whole of 2019.

The European Commission has warned that debt servicing could be challenging, especially in the sectors hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic. Experts note that paying off the debt accumulated during the pandemic is the second largest problem for business.
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November 25. US jobless claims unexpectedly rose over the week

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ended November 21, increased by 30 thousand compared with the revised figure of the previous week to 778 thousand applications.

Analysts had expected a decline of 12 thousand applications from the initial figure last week – to 730 thousand. The initial figure of the previous week was revised to 748 thousand from 742 thousand.

The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 299 thousand from the revised figure of the previous week to 6.071 million.
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November 30. US exchanges are falling as part of the correction after a prolonged rise

Major US stock indices are declining on Monday in a correction, while remaining on track for their highest monthly gain since April.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.93% to 29,633.02 points, the NASDAQ high-tech companies index – 0.05%, to 12,205.85 points, the S&P 500 broad market index – 0.59%, to 3,616.91 pips.

The main factor influencing investor sentiment was news about vaccines. Since early November, Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca have reported successful trials of their vaccine samples with high efficacy. In addition, the positive dynamics in the US markets in November was also caused by a decrease in political uncertainty after the presidential elections.
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December 02. Visa will issue the world's first cashback credit card in bitcoins

Visa is partnering with cryptocurrency startup BlockFi to release the world's first cashback credit card in bitcoins. The card will be issued by Evolve Bank with the assistance of credit card startup Deserve.

1.5% will be returned from each card transaction. Cashback will be accumulated, then automatically converted into bitcoins and credited to your BlockFi account.

In addition to the credit limit with a specific interest-free period, BlockFi will give customers a welcome bonus of $250 in bitcoins if the amount spent on the card exceeds $3000 in the first three months.

The card will be metallic, similar to the Apple card that the company has jointly released with Goldman Sachs. Annual maintenance for a new VISA credit card will cost $200. The card will initially only be available in the US.
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December 04. Crude Oil rises to eight-month high as OPEC + deal

Brent oil prices jumped to $49.86 per barrel after the announcement of the results of the OPEC + meeting. Thus, the asset has renewed its maximum for the last eight months.

The organization has decided to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day starting in January in response to rising prices and improved demand forecasts for 2021. The demand for hydrocarbons is expected to recover quickly thanks to progress in the development of a vaccine against COVID-19.

However, this is only a quarter of the 2 million bpd increase the group originally expected in January.

An additional stimulus for growth is the fact that OPEC keeps its plans regarding the need to further restrict oil production unchanged.
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December 08. UK starts vaccination, US buys vaccines

December 8 could be a historic day in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic as the United Kingdom officially began vaccination today. The UK uses a vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech and has reportedly purchased 40 million doses. Pfizer said it could produce 50 million doses this month; production volume in 2021 is not yet clear.

Donald Trump's government purchased 100 million doses of Pfizer's vaccine in advance (enough to vaccinate 50 million people, since each person needs two doses every few weeks). Pfizer then offered a contract for the supply of more vaccines, which Trump refused.

The current agreement between the US government and Pfizer allows for the purchase of up to 500 million doses in the second half of 2021. However, this number is optional. As other countries place their own vaccine orders and Pfizer has a production logistics scheme, the US may not be able to purchase another 500 million doses, even if it wants to.

The question of when and how Americans will be vaccinated is critical, as the country has reached a record 102,000 hospitalizations and the highest weekly death rate. The United States has recorded over 15.3 million cases (200,000 new just yesterday) and over 290,000 Covid-19-related deaths.

The situation with coronaviruses in Europe is starting to stabilize thanks to November lockdowns. France, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany are seeing significant declines in the number of Covid-19 cases. Russia is currently the largest coronavirus hotspot outside the US, outperforming even India in its daily statistics.
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December 10.2020 - USA, coronavirus and latest economic reports

In the US, the November inflation report was published, which beat the forecast at 0.2%, as well as weekly data on jobless claims, which disappointed investors. The labor market situation in the United States is deteriorating due to the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak.

By the end of the week, 70 million people infected with coronavirus will be registered in the world. In the United States, there are more than 15.8 million patients, of whom more than 296,000 have died. The number of hospitalizations in the country has reached the highest ever.

In the EU, the number of new cases is gradually decreasing. A notable exception is Germany, which despite the lockdown, where more than 20,000 new cases of Covid-19 are detected daily. Brazil, India and Russia also continue to be hit hard by the virus.
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Meeting of the European Council: 2021 budget

The last meeting of the European Council in 2020 began yesterday. The main topic of discussion is the budget for the next year. At the end of the meeting, it became known how the European Union will spend the money and whether it will be able to allocate enough funds for the Recovery Fund - a special section of the budget dedicated to combating the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.

Poland and Hungary have previously questioned the future of the Recovery Fund. The two most right-wing EU countries had a problem with a provision in the funding bill that linked raising funds with respect for the rule of law. Both Poland and Hungary have come under criticism from the EU in recent years for problems in the judicial system, as well as freedom of speech and press. Fearing that this policy would leave them without EU incentives, Poland and Hungary said they would veto the bill.

However, other EU countries have forced these countries to pass a bill and budget plan totaling 1.8 trillion euros. The compromise was due to the clarification that respect for the rule of law would not be retroactive. In other words, Poland and Hungary (or any other EU member state violating this principle) can only be punished for future offenses, and not for what they have already done.

The EU Council summit disappointed anyone hoping for news of Brexit. The question that the transition period ends in less than three weeks is not on the agenda. The UK and the EU are still in talks, Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen said earlier that they have until Sunday to find a compromise. The EU has already developed guidelines for the negative scenario.
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December 15. Industrial production in the US in November grew better than forecast

According to the report of the US Federal Reserve System, industrial production in November increased by 0.4% versus the previous month, when the indicator was noted at the level of 0.9%.

At the same time, the volume of production is still 5% below the pre-crisis level. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting an increase of 0.3%.

In annual terms, industrial production in November fell by 5.5%, and in October – by 5%.

Manufacturing production in November increased for the seventh month in a row – by 0.8% versus October. The forecasts assumed an increase in the indicator by 0.3%. In the mining industry, production increased by 2.3%, electricity generation decreased by 4.3%.

Capacity utilization in the US increased to 73.3% in November from 73% a month earlier. Analysts on average predicted a decline to 72.9%.
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December 16. Bitcoin price has updated a new all-time high

The value of the most popular cryptocurrency, bitcoin, grows on Wednesday evening, exceeding the maximum level of December 2017 ($ 20,042) and updating a new all-time high at $ 20,535.

Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, has risen sharply since October. Digital currencies are rising in value amid optimism in global markets and expectations that the Covid-19 pandemic will be brought under control thanks to the emergence of vaccines against coronavirus infection.

Additional support for Bitcoin is provided by a sharp weakening of the US dollar in the world market.
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December 18. Brent and WTI: What to Expect from the Oil Market?

Global oil prices are moderately lower on Friday as investors continue to assess the outlook for demand amid news of vaccinations in many countries.

The price of Brent crude oil dropped today to $ 51.17 per barrel, while the price of WTI oil - to $ 48.15. Note that the quotes moved down after four days of growth.

However, despite the optimism associated with the start of vaccination against coronavirus, the epidemiological situation in the world leaves much to be desired. Against this background, an increasing number of countries are introducing additional quarantine measures, which puts pressure on demand. We can say that the news about vaccines is too overestimated, which does not exclude the possibility of an imminent correction in prices from the highs. Recall that Brent quotes reached $ 51.80 at the moment, which was the maximum since mid-February of this year. WTI climbed to $ 48.60 per barrel, which also became its highest value in 10 months.

Additional risks to oil risk are posed by divisions within OPEC + as every exporter would like to take advantage of higher hydrocarbon prices. Do not forget that the organization has decided to increase oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day from January 1, 2021.
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December 23. Great Britain is on the verge of a trade blockade

UK industrialists fear that the country could face the threat of a food crisis. In particular, the country is facing an impending shortage of fruits and vegetables, and shoppers are lining up at supermarkets in London.

The fact is that due to the mutating coronavirus, a number of European countries have suspended transport links with Great Britain. And now, with food supply chains disrupted, London is on the verge of a trade blockade. Analysts note that the volume of supplies from the European Union amounted to a quarter of the total volume of the previous year.

In addition, port disruptions mean that British meat and fish exporters are unable to ship their goods to Europe. As it is known, the European Union is highly dependent on supplies from Britain. For example, in France there may not be enough fish for Christmas due to blocking of cargo.
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December 24. US stock exchanges are growing on expectations of state support

Major US stock indexes on Thursday are growing moderately on expectations of market participants for additional measures of economic support in the US. At the same time, the trading volume today is not large, since most exchanges today close earlier than usual in connection with the celebration of Catholic Christmas. Tomorrow is a day off in the USA and Europe.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew by 0.13%, to 30169.5 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index – by 0.41%, to 12822.01 points, the broad market S&P 500 index – by 0.26% , up to 3699.5 points.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump refused to sign the $ 900 billion package of economic assistance adopted by Congress on the eve of Congress, demanding a revision in order to increase payments to the population from $600 to $2,000 per person.

At the same time, markets are watching with concern the news of the mutation of the coronavirus in the UK, as fears about new serious restrictive measures are growing against this background. And this, in turn, can exert strong pressure on economic activity in Europe and the world.
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December 25. What awaits the oil market in 2021?

The outgoing year will be remembered for numerous anti-records: a fall in demand by 25%, overcrowding of oil storage facilities and a drop in prices for the first time in history. The reason for such events was the coronavirus pandemic in the world, which led to an unprecedented drop in oil prices: Brent collapsed to the level of $15 per barrel, and for the first time in history, WTI completely went into negative territory, reaching minus $40 (suppliers paid extra to buyers for oil export).

However, experts believe that next year will be more successful for «black gold», and the price of a Brent barrel will remain in the region of $45-55 per barrel. By the end of 2020, OPEC's coordinated efforts to balance the oil market, as well as news of the successful testing of vaccines against COVID-19, helped the oil rise to $50 per barrel.

The demand for oil products in the outgoing year is gradually approaching 97-99% of 2019, but air traffic has not yet been restored. Moreover, the new mutation Covid casts doubt on the imminent opening of borders. At the same time, the world economy continues to grow, which was facilitated by the stimulating programs of central banks. In such conditions, an optimistic scenario for further dynamics of the oil market is still more likely, experts say.

It should be added that the negative effect on demand from the pandemic will come to naught by the end of the first half of 2021, and the OPEC+ deal will remain in one form or another. However, in the unlikely scenario of canceling the agreement to cut oil production, the price of «black gold» may fall to the range of $35-45 per barrel. But, again, this is extremely unlikely.
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December 29. What awaits European stock market after Brexit?

Experts predict that the European financial market will face big changes after the UK's final exit from the European Union in 2021. The fact is that after Brexit, euro-denominated assets (stocks and derivatives) will be withdrawn from London exchanges, and the long-term consequences of such changes are not yet clear.

The trade agreement between London and Brussels last week does not cover the financial sector. This means that UK access to EU financial markets will end on December 31st. And the consequences of this can be seen already on January 4, the first day of trading in the new year. Analysts also note that the EU wants to reduce its dependence on London for financial services and increase the volume of trading in euro assets in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and other financial centers of continental Europe. As a result, the European stock and bond markets will split up, which could result in higher tariffs for investors.

From January 4, EU banks will carry out operations only on the territory of the block and will abandon British platforms (Cboe Europe, Aquis Exchange, Turquoise and Goldman Sachs). According to David Hewson, President of Cboe Europe, virtually all cross-border transactions in European stocks will move to other sites in one day, which will be the largest shift in stock trading in the last two decades.
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December 31. Senate Republicans blocked bill to increase payments to Americans

Republicans in the Senate have blocked a bill passed by the House of Representatives to increase the amount of incentive payments during the coronavirus pandemic from $600 to $2 thousand.

The head of the Republican majority in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, said that he did not welcome the intention «to throw more borrowed money into the hands of rich Democratic friends who do not need help anyway.» Other demands of Donald Trump, in the form of an investigation of alleged violations in the presidential elections and establishing the responsibility of social networks for publishing content, the Democrats refused to discuss at all.

We recall that on Monday, the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved an increase in stimulus payments requested by President Donald Trump from $600 to $2 thousand. A day earlier, Trump signed the country's budget for the 2021st fiscal year in the amount of $2.3 trillion. The budget includes a $900 billion package of measures to support the economy in a pandemic.
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January 04. Bitcoin kicks off the year with a new all-time high

On Monday, the value of bitcoin began to decline after renewing its historical high at $34,543 on Sunday. The current value of the cryptocurrency is $31.632. In the morning, the price dropped to $29,000.

The bitcoin rate began to grow in mid-December, quickly breaking first the 20,000 mark, and then the 30,000 mark.

Analysts do not agree on the future price dynamics. Some believe that Bitcoin has already reached its maximum values, and a price pullback will soon follow. Others predict growth throughout the year, and even maximum values ​​of $100,000.

Recall that the cryptocurrency is based on a decentralized system based on blockchain technology. New blocks of the system are created by its participants using computing devices, mainly video cards. However, the emission is limited by the creators: only 21 million bitcoins can exist, and now more than 19 million have already been created.
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January 05. Experts named the key risks of 2021

Analysts of the consulting company Eurasia Group named the main risks for the economy, international politics and states in general, which they may face in 2021.

The first line in the ranking of the top 10 risks is occupied by the «divided America». Experts suggest that a huge part of the US population will consider the head of state illegitimate. For example, incumbent President Donald Trump's refusal to acknowledge presidential election results is a unique case in US history that signals a strong internal division in America.

The second risk is, of course, the coronavirus pandemic. Its further development threatens not only the lives and health of people, but also political stability and the world economy. Moreover, the distribution of vaccines can lead to the division of populations and states into haves and have-nots.

The third place in the ranking is taken by the fight against climate change. According to experts, global cooperation in this area can be replaced by competition.

In addition to these three points, the list of risks for 2021 includes growing tensions between China and the United States, difficulties with the international transfer of information and the likelihood of a conflict in cyberspace. Analysts also note the problems in the economies of Turkey and the Middle East, potential political risks in Germany associated with the resignation of Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as the political crisis in Latin America.
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January 06. Trump bans transactions with Chinese payment services

US President Donald Trump signed a decree banning financial transactions with Chinese companies. The list of these companies includes corporations that control and develop applications for eight payment systems.

In particular, the ban included: Alipay, owned by Jack Ma's Ant Group, WeChat Pay, CamScanner, QQ Wallet, SHAREit, Tencent QQ, VMate and WPS Office.

Trump explained his decision by the fact that these applications get access to confidential information of users, which can then be used by the Chinese authorities for their own purposes. However, the decree will enter into force only 45 days later, after the president leaves the White House. Moreover, the newly elected President of the United States, Joe Biden, has the power to revoke Trump's decree on the first day of his presidency, that is, January 20.
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January 11. Oil has renewed its February 2020 high

On Monday, March Brent oil futures surpassed $56 per barrel for the first time since February 25, 2020. During the day, quotations decreased slightly, but still remained above the $55 per barrel level. March futures for the Texas WTI reached $51.56 a barrel.

The oil market began its growth last week, after Saudi Arabia announced its intention to reduce oil production by 1 million barrels per day in February and March. Earlier at a meeting, the OPEC+ countries decided to keep the current production restrictions. At the same time, Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to increase oil production in aggregate by 75 thousand barrels per day.

Today, pressure on quotes continues to be exerted by investors' fears about the prospects for global economic growth and demand for raw materials amid the further spread of coronavirus in many regions of the world. Traders are confident that a worsening epidemiological situation will inevitably lead to a slowdown in economic activity.

Additional pressure on the oil market was provided by the Baker Hughes report, according to which the number of operating oil rigs increased by 8 units to 275, which corresponds to an 8-month high.
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January 12. European markets decline amid doubts about vaccine effectiveness

European stocks on Tuesday traded in different directions, reacting to the statements of the US Federal Reserve officials about the likelihood of a reduction in monetary stimulus at the end of this year.

The German DAX index traded at 13.916 today, shedding 0.14%. The CAC 40 in France also declined to 5.654, while the UK FTSE fell to 6.744, shedding 0.66%.

Major global indices have recently shown gains thanks to incentives from central banks and local governments, as well as against the backdrop of the start of mass vaccinations against coronavirus. However, now investors are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of vaccination due to the emergence of new highly infectious strains of the virus.
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January 13. Bitcoin shows worst dynamics since March 2020

On Wednesday, the most popular cryptocurrency drops in price, showing the worst trading dynamics since March 2020. Since the beginning of the new year, bitcoin has been showing increased volatility: until recently, the currency was updating its historical highs in the area of ​​$42 thousand, and today it is already trading near $34 thousand.

At the same time, JPMorgan bank experts previously said that the cost of bitcoin could jump up to $146 thousand if the cryptocurrency acts as a competitor to gold as a «safe haven».

The jump in the price of bitcoin at the end of 2020 came as a surprise to the markets. The previous sharp rise in the digital currency was recorded at the end of 2017, when quotes rose to the level of $20 thousand. After that, there was a certain lull in the cryptocurrency market, and bitcoin entered a period of a protracted depression that lasted until the spring of 2020.

In the spring, with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the demand for bitcoin grew along with the appetite for risky assets amid massive injections from the US Federal Reserve and central banks of other countries.
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January 14. The yield on Italian government bonds rises due to political chaos in Rome

The yield spread on Italian and German 10-year government bonds reached its highest level in a month amid political turmoil in Rome and slowdown in economic growth in the country – 116 basis points.

Italy has faced political chaos after the party of former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi left the government, stripping the ruling coalition of its parliamentary majority.

As a result, the yield on Italian government bonds rose by 4-7 basis points. The underlying 10-year yield rose 6 basis points to 0.617%.
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January 15. German economy shrank by only 5% in 2020

According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the country's economy contracted by only 5% in 2020, less than expected. This was facilitated by the decisive measures of the German government, which made it possible to minimize the damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The fall in GDP turned out to be less than the forecast of 5.1% and less serious than the record economic contraction in 2009 during the global financial crisis. The agency also noted that the German economy faced stagnation in the IV quarter of 2020, but analysts are still expecting positive dynamics in the new year.

Recall, that in March last year, the government of Angela Merkel took a number of measures to rescue and stimulate the largest economy in Europe. Specifically, incentives included helping companies struggling with the pandemic, job protection schemes for employees, tax cuts, and cash disbursements to boost domestic demand. The government also invested in green technologies and infrastructure.
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January 18. German economy faces significant decline if restrictions are extended

The Bundesbank said today that the German economy still manages to stay afloat, but it could also face a «tangible blow» if the country extends restrictions to combat the coronavirus.

As early as autumn, Germany introduced tougher measures, such as the closure of some schools and shops, to restrict the movement of people and prevent the spread of Covid.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in favor of taking very quick measures to avoid mass morbidity. German authorities will meet this week to discuss tougher restrictions. However, the German central bank fears that if the measures are extended, the country's economy could be seriously affected.
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January 19. Important macroeconomic publications of the day

Macroeconomic calendar on Tuesday does not differ in the variety of publications, however, attention should be paid to the following reports that can affect the dynamics of trading in the single European currency.

According to the report of the German Institute ZEW, the index of business sentiment in Germany, assessing business expectations, amounted to 61.8 points in January against 55.0 a month earlier. Analysts predicted the value of the January indicator at 55.1.

A similar report on business sentiment in the eurozone showed an increase in the indicator from 54.4 points in December to 58.3 points in January. Experts had expected the value of the January indicator at 54.1.

The German Federal Office for Statistics Destatis presented its final inflation report today. The consumer price index in Germany rose 0.5% in December, in line with preliminary data and analysts' forecasts. In annual terms, consumer inflation in December decreased by 0.7%.
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January 20. Joe Biden takes over as President of the United States

Today is a very important day for the United States of America – the inauguration of the new President-elect Joe Biden. The 78-year-old Democrat will become the oldest president in U.S. history and lead a country plagued by the coronavirus pandemic and political divisions.

Biden's companion Kamala Harris, the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India, will become the first black, first woman, and first Asian American to be elected US Vice President.

The inauguration ceremony will take place at the Capitol Building, where the unprecedented storming of the building by supporters of Donald Trump was organized on January 6. As a result of this «action», the US House of Representatives last week impeached the incumbent president for the second time, which also has never happened in the history of the country.

Contrary to tradition, the outgoing president will not be present at the inauguration of his successor: this morning D. Trump left the White House and Washington without admitting defeat in the elections.
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January 21. ECB expectedly kept the base rate at zero level

The Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) at its meeting today kept the base interest rate at a record low zero, as expected by most experts. The rate has been at this level since March 2016.

The deposit rate was also left unchanged – at the level of minus 0.5%, while the margin rate remained at 0.25%.

The European regulator noted that it will keep all rates at (or below) the current level until inflation approaches the target level of 2%.

In addition to rates, the ECB left unchanged the parameters of the special asset purchase program Pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP). At the moment, its volume is 1.85 trillion euros. The program will run at least until the end of March 2022.
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January 25. Negative statistics from Germany dropped the euro

The euro rate, which showed growth in tandem with its main opponent, went down after the release of weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.2145.

In particular, data from the IFO research institute reflected a decrease in the business climate index in Germany to 90.1 points compared to 92.2 points in December. At the same time, analysts had expected the indicator to decline only to 91.8 points.

The assessment of the current economic situation in the country in January also fell more than the forecast – to 89.2 points from 91.3 points in December. In addition, the country's business expectations index fell to 91.1 points against the December index of 93 points, while analysts predicted its growth.
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January 26. The oil market has good growth potential

Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday: Brent has reached $56 per barrel, WTI – $53,25. At the same time, the potential for further strengthening remains.

Some days earlier the information appeared that Iraq plans to reduce oil production to 3.6 million barrels per day, which will be compensation for unfair fulfillment of the terms of the OPEC + deal in 2020. And if Iraq keeps its promises, then the volume of production in the country will decline to the lowest level since 2015.

An additional factor in the rise in oil prices may be the interruptions in exports in Libya, caused by delays in the payment of salaries to the security personnel of the oil facilities. Before these conflicts, Libya saw a rapid recovery in oil production: in December, production reached 1.2 million barrels per day, while in August production volumes were less than 100 thousand barrels per day.

Also, market participants continue to monitor the spread of Covid-19 in the world and the progress of negotiations on new economic stimulus in the United States. US President Joe Biden is pushing for the early adoption of a new $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. The inflow of new money into the US economy will put pressure on the dollar, which, in turn, will act as a factor supporting Brent quotes.
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January 27. Biden considers Nord Stream-2 a bad deal for Europe

US President Joe Biden said that he considers the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project a bad deal for Europe and intends to revise the restrictions adopted by Congress under Donald Trump.

These sanctions were included in the US annual defense budget (NDAA) and, according to them, the restrictions apply to any company that helps Gazprom lay a pipeline, insure ships, certify and repair equipment. The Trump administration has argued that the project will strengthen the economic and political influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Europe.

The new president is also opposed to further construction of the gas pipeline. Perhaps the new restrictions will be even stricter. As a reminder, at present Russia has resumed the implementation of Nord Stream 2 after foreign pipelayers left the project due to the threat of US sanctions.
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January 29. Bitcoin rose after Elon Musk's tweet

According to the trading data, the growth of bitcoin on Friday accelerated sharply, exceeding the $38 mark. The growth driver was the publication of Elon Musk on his Twitter page, where the entrepreneur mentioned bitcoin, adding the hashtag «bitcoin».

Also, the head of Tesla and SpaceX wrote a separate message: «In retrospect, it was inevitable.»

As a result, the rate of the first cryptocurrency immediately skyrocketed from $32 thousand to $38 thousand, stabilizing slightly during the day at $37 thousand.Thus, in about an hour, the price of bitcoin increased by more than 17%.

A few days earlier, Elon Musk «boosted» another cryptocurrency – previously little-known Dogecoin. It skyrocketed in value by more than 800% after Musk's «joke» mention on his Twitter account.
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February 01. Silver prices skyrocket to 8-year highs

Silver prices have jumped 16% over the past three trading sessions. The current quotation of the asset is $30.133 per ounce, which is a new high since February 2013.

Experts point out that the rush for silver may have emerged after a message appeared last week urging people to invest in silver on the private trader community on Reddit (a social news site). Forum participants decided to raise the price of the metal after the success with the shares of the GameStop company and the Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency.

Silver began to rise last week amid calls from traders to buy the metal to put pressure on banks trying to capitalize on its price decline. And on January 29, the net capital inflow to IShares Silver Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, reached an unprecedented amount of $944 million.

Investor interest in silver has also led to a surge in the value of silver-mining companies and ETFs that are pegged to silver. So the securities of the silver mining corporation First Majestic Silver soared by 30% in the last two trading sessions.
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February 03. The number of jobs in the private sector in the United States in January grew better than expected

According to a press release from the analytical company Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the number of jobs in private companies in the United States in January increased by 174,000. Analysts predicted an increase in the indicator by only 49 thousand.

The December figure was revised down to a decrease of 78 thousand from a decrease of 123 thousand.

In the US small business, the number of jobs in January increased by 51 thousand, in medium-sized companies (with a staff of 50-499 people) – by 84 thousand, and large companies increased their staff by 39 thousand jobs.

In the service sector, the number of jobs increased by 156 thousand, in the production of goods – by 19 thousand. At the same time, the figure for private construction companies in the country in January increased by 18 thousand, in the manufacturing sector – by 1 thousand.
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February 04. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week fell by 33 thousand

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week fell by 33 thousand compared with the revised figure of the previous week – to 779 thousand applications. Analysts predicted a decrease in the number of applications by only 17 thousand, to 830 thousand.

At the same time, the average number of initial applications over the past four weeks decreased by 1.25 thousand from the revised figure – to 848.25 thousand. The initial figure was revised downwards – to 849.5 thousand from 868 thousand.

The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States fell by 193 thousand from the revised figure of the previous week, to 4.592 million. The previous week's figure was revised to 4.785 million from 4.771 million.
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February 05. Oil market hits annual high

The oil market continues its bullish rally, reaching $59.70 per barrel. The last time the quotes were at similar levels was in January 2020.

The main support for oil prices is provided by the successful implementation of the terms of the deal to reduce oil production by OPEC + countries. On Wednesday, a meeting of the OPEC + Monitoring Committee took place, at which it was noted that the agreement was fulfilled by 101%. On the side of buyers are also data on changes in US oil reserves from the EIA - stocks of raw materials in the country continue to decline for the third week in a row.

Further driving up the oil market are signs that the coronavirus pandemic is on the wane as infections, hospitalizations and deaths have been steadily declining globally over the past two or three weeks.

At the same time, market participants ignored the annual report of the US Department of Energy with pessimistic forecasts for a recovery in demand. The EIA noted that aggregate energy consumption in the United States could return to 2019 levels only by 2029, and if the pace of economic recovery remains low, then even by 2050.
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February 09. Elon Musk once again contributed to the historical growth of bitcoin

The cost of bitcoin for the first time exceeded the $48 thousand mark today. The rapid growth was noted after Tesla's announcement of the acquisition of cryptocurrency for $1.5 billion (1.2 billion euros) and its readiness to continue to accept it as payment for electric vehicles. The increase since the beginning of the year was about 61%, and since the beginning of the day – by 2.5%.

Investors expect BlackRock Inc. to join the list of companies that invest in or own Bitcoin soon. Is an international investment corporation and American tech giant Square Inc.

The systematic growth of bitcoin began in the fall of 2020, it remained until mid-January 2021. After the cryptocurrency reached a record high of $40 thousand, the rate began to gradually fall and stayed in the region of $30-35.

Analysts do not have a general prediction of what will happen with Bitcoin next. Some believe that the cryptocurrency was overvalued at the level of the exchange rate of $30 thousand, while others predict growth up to several hundred thousand dollars.
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February 10. Oil continues to break records

Oil continues to break records, reaching $61.50 a barrel. Brent rose in price for the ninth session in a row, WTI – for the eighth. The prices were supported by the forecast of the US Department of Energy, according to which in 2021 world oil demand will amount to 97.67 million barrels per day, and world supply – 97.29 million bpd.

As a result, this year the market may no longer face an excess, but a shortage of oil in the amount of 380 thousand bpd. In 2022, according to the estimates of the US Department of Energy, the oil supply deficit may increase to 400 thousand bpd.

Today, market participants are awaiting the publication of the US Department of Energy's report on energy reserves in the country. Yesterday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced a decline in oil reserves by 3.5 million barrels per week. Analysts expect the Energy Ministry data to show a 2.7 million barrels drop in US crude inventories.

An additional positive for the oil market is a slight improvement in the epidemiological situation in the world. Ongoing vaccinations, declining COVID-19 incidence, and expectations for a new stimulus package in the US are improving the outlook for demand.
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February 15. US Senate acquits Trump at impeachment trial

The Senate of the US Congress, during its meeting, acquitted former President Donald Trump in the framework of impeachment. Trump is known to have been charged with inciting a crowd to attack the Capitol last month.

57 senators voted for impeachment, while 43 voted against. 67 votes out of 100 were required for the indictment. Thus, the initiative did not receive the required number of votes. Earlier, many Americans (54% of respondents) said that Trump should stop participating in the country's political life.

The second process of impeachment against the former head of the White House began in the Senate on February 9. It was the first time in the United States that an attempt to remove a state leader from office after the end of the presidential term was made.

The first attempt at impeachment was made back in 2019, but the Senate acquitted the president in early 2020. Then the investigation was launched in connection with the statement of an anonymous informant that President Trump in July 2019 put pressure on President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in his own personal and political interests.
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February 16. Oil market dynamics

On Tuesday, the oil market demonstrates multidirectional dynamics: Brent quotes fluctuate in the range of $63-63.70 per barrel. The current price of the asset is $63.25.

Prices were supported by news that Texas oil companies are suspending operations due to the Arctic cold, which has led to power outages in many parts of the state. Analysts note that this factor could lead to a decrease in production by about 1 million barrels per day.

It should be noted that this almost completely neutralized the negative effect of the data on the number of drilling rigs in the United States. According to statistics from Baker Hughes, the number of active oil platforms has grown from 299 to 306, indicating a gradual recovery in the US oil sector.

Moreover, Brent is also being supported by an improvement in the epidemiological situation in the world amid the rapid spread of vaccines. This gives hope that new restrictions will be dispensed with this year.

Further dynamics of the oil market will depend on the behavior of the dollar. Now the US currency is declining across the entire spectrum of the market amid expectations of the final approval of the economic stimulus program from Joe Biden in the amount of $1.9 trillion.
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February 17. Elon Musk's SpaceX raised $850 million

Last week, space company SpaceX, owned by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, raised $850 million in new funds, bringing the company to a valuation of around $74 billion. The funds were raised at $419.99 per share.

The previous round of funding was completed in August last year. Then SpaceX managed to raise about $2 billion at an estimate of $46 billion. Since then, Musk's company has grown by about 60% by its estimate.

Experts note that over the past three days, the market has seen a truly «insane demand» for the company. The reason for this unexpected influx of funds into the company is the development of two capital-intensive projects by SpaceX.

The first project – Starlink – is the creation of an interconnected Internet network using thousands of satellites. The network is designed to provide high-speed 5G internet to consumers anywhere in the world. Initially, the construction of Starlink was estimated at $10 billion, but now the company's management is confident that the network can bring in up to $30 billion a year.

The second project is the construction and launch of Starship missiles. The main purpose of such rockets is to deliver goods and people (up to 100 people) to the Moon and Mars.
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February 22. Poland and Ukraine call on the US to «end» the construction of the Nord Stream-2

Foreign Ministers of Poland and Ukraine Zbigniew Rau and Dmitry Kuleba called on US President Joe Biden to «put an end» to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. In their note politicians advised Biden to use every means at his disposal to prevent the completion of the project.

Rau and Kuleba fear that Nord Stream-2 will further strengthen Russia's position in the situation with gas supplies to Europe. In addition, in their opinion, the project will convince Ukrainians that the West does not adhere to its own principles and does not care about the prosperity of Ukraine.

The ministers are convinced that Moscow was allowed to go too far in implementing the project, and Washington's position on this issue is very important.

The day before, Nord Stream, the operator of Nord Stream-2, asked the German regulator for «immediate execution» of permission to lay the pipeline in German waters. The fact is that in January, the environmental organization Deutschen Umwelthilfe, protested the previously issued permission to lay the pipe.
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February 25. US stock exchanges decline after the release of statistics on the GDP

US stock exchanges are falling on Thursday after the release of statistics on GDP and the labor market.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 0.14% to 31,918.08 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index – by 0.25% to 13564.49 points, and the S&P 500 broad market index – by 0. 22%, up to 3916.6 points.

Investors drew attention to the statistics on the US economy: in the IV quarter, the country's GDP, according to the second estimate, grew by 4.1% on an annualized basis (if the GDP grew at the same pace for four quarters in a row). The indicator turned out to be higher than the first estimate of growth by 4%, but worse than the forecast of growth from analysts at 4.2% in annual terms.

At the same time, the US Department of Commerce kept the estimate of the fall in GDP in 2020 at 3.5%.

Labor market statistics turned out to be better than expected: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to a minimum since November 2020, and the rate of decline in the indicator became the fastest since August of the same year. The number of such applications decreased by 111 thousand, to 730 thousand.
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February 26. Germany has announced four options for the future «Nord Stream 2»

The German authorities have proposed four options for the future of the «Nord Stream 2» project in order to come to a compromise with the United States and «end the grueling showdown» around the pipeline.

The first course of action proposed by Berlin is the US refusal from threats of sanctions if the «danger» for Ukraine is removed or at least reduced. This option provides for the possibility of stopping gas supply in the event that Russia stops transportation through the territory of Ukraine.

Another option is to suspend the construction of the pipeline for the purpose of negotiations. The FRG authorities note that the United States can create a special commission with the participation of Europeans, whose task will be to develop specific solutions.

Germany sees the third decision to provide investment assistance to Ukraine, which will soften Washington's position. And the fourth scenario is the continuation of the construction of the gas pipeline in spite of all countermeasures to the project.

Let us remind you that «Nord Stream 2» is a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, laid along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Now the facility is 95% ready, and the cost of its construction is estimated at $11 billion.
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March 01. Cardano takes the lead in cryptocurrency rally

Cryptocurrency Cardano last week renewed all-time highs and came in third after Bitcoin and Ethereum in terms of market capitalization, which now exceeds $46.5 million.

Cardano's value has risen 2000% over the past year, gaining 300% in the last month alone. The digital currency has unexpectedly left behind major competitors, including Polkadot (DOT) and Ripple (XRP).

Experts note that the rise in price of the digital currency was facilitated by the fact that the project of its developers plans to roll out the Goguen update this week. The update will implement important changes that will help the platform enter the decentralized finance segment.

«Cardano is a rising star in the cryptocurrency sector,» said Nigel Greene, CEO of deVere Financial Advisory Group.
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March 02. China's financial regulator announced a «bubble» in global stock markets

The China Banking and Insurance Supervision and Control Committee (CBIRC) said the rally in the US and other stock markets resembles a «bubble» and will eventually move to a correction. The head of the committee, Guo Shuqing, also noted that the American and European markets are moving in the opposite direction compared to the economy.

CBIRC comments did not support sentiment on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% on Tuesday. Moreover, experts believe that such statements may create even greater concern about the further tightening of China's monetary policy.

The regulator also announced a «bubble» in the real estate market in China itself. This is because many people buy houses for investment or speculative purposes, which is «very dangerous.»

The economic recovery, a surge in lending and fears of missing out on buying a home have boosted demand for real estate in major Chinese cities. As a result, the authorities have retaliated, including a new mortgage lending facility. Despite this, housing prices in the secondary market, which is less regulated by the state, jumped in January to a maximum in a year and a half.
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March 3. Gold falls in price on lower demand for «safe-haven» assets

On Wednesday, the price of gold declines against the background of investors leaving defensive assets in the light of the prospects for an improvement in the economic situation in the world. In addition, the high yield on US government bonds and the expensive dollar continue to put pressure on gold quotes.

The current price of the April futures for precious metals on the New York Comex exchange is $1,710.40 per troy ounce.

Analysts note that investors are more inclined to acquire risky assets amid general optimism in the markets regarding the prospects for the development of the global economy. In addition, the continuation of mass vaccinations in countries around the world gives hope for a speedy recovery.

Also, traders are waiting for additional support for the economy from the US authorities. As you remember, last Saturday the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved a stimulus package in the amount of 1.9 trillion dollars. Now the relevant bill has yet to be passed by the Senate and signed by President Joe Biden.
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04.03. Construction of Nord Stream 2 postponed until September

The construction of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 was again postponed, this time for six months. Now, work on laying two lines of the gas pipeline in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark is going to be completed in September 2021, although the deadline was previously planned for the end of April.

Initially, the project was supposed to be completed at the end of 2019, however, the construction of the pipeline was prevented by sanctions from the United States, due to which European companies began to leave the project. Washington is hindering the construction of the facility, as American liquefied natural gas competes with Russian pipeline fuel for the European market.

As of early March, the pipeline is 98% ready, and its cost is estimated at $11 billion. Russia does not abandon plans to complete the construction of the facility, however, certification and insurance of the route still remain unresolved problems.

Also today it became known that the financial partner of the project, the German concern Uniper, announced that it would no longer finance the project. It is known that as of November, Uniper has allocated 700 million euros to finance the construction of the gas pipeline. Earlier, the completion of financing was also announced by the German oil and gas company Wintershall Dea.
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March 5. OPEC+ ministerial meeting outcomes

On Friday, Brent crude rose to $68.60 for the first time since January 2020. The prices were supported by the results of the meeting of the ministers of the OPEC+ countries, according to which the organization unexpectedly refused to increase oil production in April by 500 thousand barrels per day.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia extended its own voluntary restrictions of 1 million bpd for another month, promising to return these volumes to the market when it sees fit.

Russia and Kazakhstan again received the right to increase production from April by 130 thousand and 20 thousand barrels per day, respectively.

The results of the OPEC+ meeting indicate that the participants in the energy pact have chosen a cautious approach to assessing the recovery in demand, given the still remaining concerns about the pace of global economic growth.
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March 8. US stock markets open in the red

Investors are encouraged today that the Senate passed President Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion stimulus bill this weekend. Minor amendments were made to the bill, reducing unemployment benefits from $ 400 to $ 300. He must now return to the House of Representatives, which will approve the revised version and finally unlock the funds.

The approval of the bill to stimulate the economy further contributed to the growth of US Treasury bonds, which, in turn, negatively affects the stock indices. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones all started trading in the red today due to low investor interest in the stock at the moment.

Stocks in China are also declining in light of last week's announcement of a lower-than-expected growth outlook. This signals to the markets that the government may withdraw some stimulus from its economy to offset the growth in borrowing.

Oil prices continued to rise after OPEC + agreed not to increase its quotas in April last week. In addition, there has been an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, although the country has reported that production is unlikely to be affected. Nevertheless, oil managed to rise above $ 70 a barrel.
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March, 09. Bitcoin capitalization exceeded $1 trillion again

In the morning trading session on Tuesday, bitcoin rose to $54348.57, reaching a 24-hour high. At the same time, the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency rose again above the $ trillion level.

After that, bitcoin lost some of its achievements and the current quotation of the digital asset is $54185.

Note that recently, bitcoin has experienced a dizzying rally: since the beginning of 2021, it has grown by more than 80%, and over the past 12 months, it has risen by more than 570%. It was also at an all-time high of $58,332.36.

There are several reasons behind Bitcoin's rise, including the investment in this digital currency by large investors and significant purchases by corporations such as Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy Incorporated.
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March 11. ECB kept monetary policy unchanged

A meeting of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) took place today, following which monetary policy remained unchanged. The base interest rate on loans was kept at zero.

The rate on deposits also remained at the same level – minus 0.5%, the rate on short-term loans from the ECB – at 0.25%. The regulator expects key interest rates to remain at or below current levels until the inflation forecast steadily approaches below 2%.

In addition, the central bank will continue the bond buyback program (PEPP) in connection with the pandemic totaling € 1.85 trillion. The reinvestment of the main payments on the securities purchased under the PEPP is planned to continue until at least the end of 2023.

The regulator will also continue the program of asset repurchase (APP) in the amount of € 20 billion monthly, as well as reinvestment of payments on securities purchased under this program.

The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on April 22.
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March 12. Biden signs incentive package act

US President Joe Biden signed into law a $1.9 trillion stimulus package a day earlier than expected. The economic stimulus provides direct one-time payments of $1,400 for most Americans, as well as tax breaks for millions of families.

The Democratic Party is now planning a two-week campaign to keep voters' memory of this decision until the next election. By signing the bill, Biden promised that the money would help rebuild America's economy and support workers and the middle class.

Also, the new head of the White House said that he intends to speed up the process of national vaccination and return to normal life by the 4th of July holiday. Such statements have strengthened confidence in the recovery of the US economy this year, which has led to higher yields on the dollar and US bonds.

In particular, the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds returned to 1.61%, the highest since February last year. The dollar index rose 0.6% to 91.93.
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March 15. Oil hits $70 maximum on strong data from China

Brent crude hit a high of $70 per barrel on Monday, boosted by data from China, which indicated a recovery in the economy, improving the outlook for demand from the world's largest oil importer. Activity in China's industrial and retail sectors surged in the first two months of 2021, exceeding analysts' expectations.

Additional support for the quotes of «black gold» was provided by the OPEC report published last Thursday, according to which world oil demand in 2021 will reach 96.3 million barrels per day. Now experts of the oil cartel expect an increase in world oil demand by 5.9 million barrels per day.

On the side of buyers, there is also general market optimism caused by new fiscal stimulus measures, worth $1.9 trillion, in the US, which were finally agreed at the end of last week. Market participants believe that the injection of such huge money into the economy will significantly accelerate the recovery of economic activity, which will have a favorable effect on the demand for energy resources.

However, Brent failed to gain a foothold in the area of ​​highs. The current quotation of the commodity asset is $ 68.75 per barrel.
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March 16. British currency falls on fears over AstraZeneca vaccine

The pound sterling declines against the euro and the dollar on Tuesday amid news of the suspension of coronavirus vaccinations developed by AstraZeneca in Germany, Italy and France. Previously, this vaccine has already been abandoned by Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark and a number of other countries.

Germany, France and Italy announced on Monday that they will suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine against COVID-19 after cases (including fatal) cases of thrombosis have been recorded in those vaccinated. At the same time, the World Health Organization (WHO) says that the connection between the vaccine and complications has not been proven and there is no reason for panic.

Experts note that if fears about the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine are confirmed, it could jeopardize the rapid vaccination program for the UK population.
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March 22. German economy falls due to antivirus restrictions

The Bundesbank said today that the German economy is likely to contract sharply in the first quarter of this year, as due to pandemic restrictions the service sector has suffered significantly and the development of the construction industry has slowed down. Experts point out that a hike in sales tax, which was temporarily cut last year, likely contributed to a significant reduction in construction volumes in January.

In its monthly report, the German central bank did not update its forecast for the spring economic recovery and dropped references to the coronavirus vaccination campaign, which was undermined by news of possible side effects. The authorities had previously expected the economy to recover in the spring thanks to a decrease in the incidence of coronavirus and mass vaccinations.

The regulator also noted that measures to contain the pandemic in the current quarter are on average more stringent than in the previous one, so a stronger decline in economic production can be expected. Industrial production also declined in the first month of the year, but orders were high and merchandise exports increased.
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March 23. Bitcoin can rise to $300 thousand, but then – fall by 80-90%

Co-founder and former CEO of BTCC crypto exchange Bobby Lee said that today bitcoin is in a «bull market» and may rise to $300 thousand. At the same time, he warned that the «bubble» could burst after reaching a peak, and the cryptocurrency would fall within the so-called «bitcoin winter», which can last for years.

Lee also noted that Bitcoin bull market cycles occur every four years, and this summer, the value of the digital currency could easily rise to the level of $ 100,000 or more. Two of these «bullish market cycles» have already occurred over the past eight years: in 2017, when the price of bitcoin surged from $ 1,000 to almost $ 20,000 in a year, and in 2021, when the price of cryptocurrency sharply reached $ 60,000.

The economist warned that the bubble could burst when the price of bitcoin declines. In the crypto industry, this is called bitcoin winter, and it can last anywhere from two to three years. Moreover, the value of a currency may fall by 80-90% of its value at its historical peak.
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March 24. Suez Canal blocked: 12% of world trade in question

One of the largest container ships in the world, owned by the Taiwanese company Evergreen Marine, ran aground in the Suez Canal, completely blocking traffic on the most important trade route connecting Europe, Asia and the United States to the Middle East.

Experts note that about 12% of world trade passes through this channel, 30% of the world's container ships' capacity per year, and about 600 thousand barrels of crude oil from the Middle East to Europe and the United States every day. Moreover, the Suez Canal remains the main source of income for Egypt.

At the moment it became known that at the entrance to the canal tankers with oil and liquefied natural gas, container ships with various goods and dry cargo vessels are accumulating. If congestion continues until the end of this week, it will affect the transit of 15 LNG tankers and disrupt the entire shipping schedule. Unblocking of the channel is expected to take several days at best.
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