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EUR/USD. September 11, 2020 – Euro demonstrates strengthening after ECB meeting

The EUR/USD currency pair demonstrates increased trading volatility after yesterday's meeting of the ECB. Yesterday, at the moment, the pair managed to renew the high of early September at 1.1915, falling almost immediately to 1.1800. The current quote for the euro is 1.1860.

At the end of the meeting, it was decided to keep the monetary policy unchanged, and the rate at zero. The head of the regulator Christine Lagarde also noted that the PEPP program, designed for the purchase of assets in the amount of 1.35 billion euros, will continue its work, but over time the regulator intends to switch to a flexible system of asset repurchase.

Today, you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the United States, which should rise from 1.0% to 1.1%. And in comparison with Europe, which has already faced deflation, statistics from the United States can give the dollar strength. Perhaps it is these data that will entail the long-awaited correction in the EUR/USD pair.

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GBP/USD. September 14, 2020 – Pound is weakly correcting after falling the day before

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair is recovering after falling to local lows last week. The pound dropped to 1.2760 on Thursday, recovering to 1.2850 today.

The pressure on the British currency continues to be exerted by the growing likelihood of the UK leaving the EU in a «tough» scenario, without a trade deal. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to criticize the European authorities, only exacerbating the situation.

For example, today it became known that the politician accused the EU of a food blockade of Great Britain. Moreover, last week the British authorities passed a law on the border of Northern Ireland, which cancels last year's agreements with Brussels. All this uncertainty around Brexit is putting strong pressure on the sterling exchange rate, and the currency is unlikely to be able to recover to its recent highs in the near future.

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GBP/USD. September 15, 2020 – Pound recovers moderately after long decline

Although the GBP/USD pair remains in a downward trend, it has been showing signs of recovery since the beginning of this week, responding to the positive British statistics. The current quote for the pair is 1.2890.

The UK released several economic reports this morning to support the pound. In particular, in July the growth of the average wages amounted to -1.0% against the forecast of -1.3%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits also fell in August. The actual number of requests was 73.7 thousand, while the forecasts assumed an increase to 100 thousand. Unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%.

At the same time, the US dollar is under pressure from the protracted dispute in the US Congress over the issue of an additional package of monetary stimulus measures. In the evening hours, you should pay attention to the data on industrial production in the United States. Experts predict a slowdown in the decline in production from -8.2% to -6.1%, which may support the dollar.

The RSI indicator continues to rise towards the resistance zone, which signals the continued growth of the pound to the level of 1.29 and subsequent consolidation in this area.

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Brent. September 16, 2020 – Oil market is growing again

Oil prices are rising for the second day in a row. The current Brent quotation is $41.40 per barrel.

The reason for the strengthening was the suspension of oil and gas production in the United States due to hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico. The current estimate for the total loss of production is between 3 and 6 million barrels of oil in about 11 days.

Additional support to prices was provided by yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a decrease in oil reserves in the United States by 9.5 million barrels, to 494.6 million. Analysts predicted an increase in reserves by 1.3 million barrels.

The dynamics of the oil market also depends on the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. If the event provides support for the dollar, oil prices are expected to show a correction.

USD/CAD. September 16, 2020 – Canadian dollar rises moderately in anticipation of inflation data

On Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair is moderately declining from the level of 1.3200. The current quote of the pair is 1.3160.

Statistics released yesterday from the US and Canada turned out to be weak. In the United States, data on industrial production were presented, the volume of which fell from 3.5% to 0.4% in August. The forecast assumed a reduction to 1.0%. Canada shared data on manufacturing sales, which fell from 23.0% to 7.0%.

Today you should pay attention to the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Investors do not expect changes in interest rates or the course of monetary policy, policy, but the subsequent press conference of Jerome Powell will be of interest. The head of the Fed should comment on the issue of further interest rate cuts.

In Canada, a block of data on the dynamics of consumer prices will be published today. Market participants expect inflation to rise from 0.1% to 0.3%, which may provide some support to the Canadian dollar.

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EUR/USD. September 17, 2020 – The dollar strengthened after the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but not for long

Yesterday, the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve became known, which provided significant support to the dollar. In the evening hours, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1735. However, on Thursday the euro managed to make up for all the losses and return to the level of 1.1800.

The Open Markets Committee of the Federal Reserve System decided to leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. The key rate was kept at the historically minimal level – in the range of 0-0.25% per annum. At the same time, most Fed leaders expect the rate to remain in the current range until the end of 2023.

The ultra-soft monetary policy will continue until unemployment drops to estimated levels and inflation accelerates to 2%.

The Central Bank also improved its forecasts for GDP and unemployment for 2020: from -6.5% to -3.7% and from 9.3% to 7.6%. Jerome Powell noted that over the past two months, the US economy has been recovering faster than expected.

Today you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the euro area. Experts forecast a decline from 0.4% to -0.2%. And this will already become the official recognition of Europe's slide into deflation. The states will provide data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Experts expect further growth in the number of applications.

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GBP/USD. September 18, 2020 – The pound is recovering from yesterday's decline

The pound sterling is showing signs of strengthening and is trading just below the 1.3000 level. Yesterday, after the release of the minutes of the Bank of England, the British currency came under pressure and fell to 1.2860. The regulator decided to keep the base interest rate at 0.1%, and the program of asset repurchase from the market – at 745 billion pounds.

At the same time, the Central Bank noted that it is ready to consider the possibility of reducing rates to the negative area, if necessary.

The pair changed direction after the release of data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Fresh numbers turned out to be worse than forecast: the figure fell to 860 thousand against expectations of a reduction to 850 thousand.

Additional support to the pound today was provided by the report on retail sales, the volume of which increased by 0.8% in monthly terms (better than expected) and by 2.8% in annual terms.

The RSI indicator is moving almost horizontally, which means that it will be difficult for the pound to overcome the resistance level of 1.30. During the day, the GBP/USD pair will continue to fluctuate at current levels.

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Brent. September 21, 2020 – The oil market began to recover

Oil prices recovered more than 10% last week and Brent quotes returned to the area above $42 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $42.40. The weekly high was $43.78 per barrel. Experts believe that the «bullish» rally to the $45 area may resume.

The prices were supported by data on changes in oil reserves in the United States, as well as restrictions on production in the Gulf of Mexico caused by the hurricane season. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil reserves in the United States fell 4.4 million barrels, exceeding the forecast for a decline of 1.8 million barrels.

In the US, the active hurricane season continues. To date, due to the threat of Hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico, the work of 27.48% of oil production capacities has been suspended.

An additional driver of price growth was the outcome of the OPEC + meeting, during which the participants in the energy pact reaffirmed their commitment to the current agreement. Earlier, the organization reduced the production cut from 9.7 million barrels per day to 7.7 million, starting in August. At the same time, countries that had not previously completed the deal in full, pledged to compensate for excess production in the coming months.

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EUR/USD. September 22, 2020 – Euro continues to weaken

The European currency continues to weaken against the US dollar, falling to the level of 1.1690. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1700. The main pressure on the European currency is exerted by the increase in the number of cases of coronavirus in Europe, which creates a risk for the introduction of new quarantine measures in the region.

Additional pressure on the euro rate came from the speech of the head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. She stated the need to carefully study the macroeconomic reports of the euro area, as the economic recovery is uneven and unstable. In the evening hours today, you should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Fed D. Powell.

The RSI indicator maintains momentum for further decline. The forecast for tomorrow assumes attempts to consolidate the dollar below the level of 1.17.

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GBP/USD. September 23, 2020 – Pound weakly strengthens from 1.2700

The GBP/USD pair continues to decline against the dollar, falling to 1.2670 for the first time since late July. The current quote for the pair is 1.2730.

The main pressure on the British pound comes from the uncertainty over Brexit. The date of the country's withdrawal from the EU is approaching, but the parties have failed to reach agreements on many issues, and a «hard» Brexit scenario is becoming more and more likely.

Additional pressure on the British currency is exerted by a sharp deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson yesterday announced new restrictive measures and advised companies to move their employees to work remotely. Most likely, the country will face a new lockdown with the shutdown of enterprises, which will once again cause huge damage to the British economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a speech yesterday. He stated that negative rates are an important tool in the regulator's arsenal, but that their introduction will take time and technical preparatory work. Thus, the head of the Bank of England signaled a possible transition of monetary policy from zero to negative rates.

EUR/USD. September 23, 2020 – Euro is recovering after yesterday's fall

During yesterday's day, the EUR/USD pair dipped to the level of 1.1670, the current quote of the pair is 1.1710. The pressure on the European currency is exerted by the worsening epidemiological situation with regard to Covid-19 in the eurozone and the UK. The British Prime Minister announced new restrictive measures and invited companies to transfer as many workers as possible to remote work.

In addition, the dynamics of the pair is also affected by the strengthening of the dollar, which rose after the statement of Charles Evans about the possibility of moving to raising rates earlier than planned.

Yesterday's speeches by J. Powell and C. Lagarde increased the volatility in EUR/USD trading. Powell noted that the US banking system is holding up well during the pandemic, but there is much work to be done to restore the economy in the future and the prospects for the banking sector have not been determined. Today the head of the Fed will speak in the House of Representatives, and on Thursday – in the Senate Banking Committee.

The head of the ECB, in turn, said at yesterday's speech that the regulator is closely monitoring the rate of the single European currency. Today, the euro was supported by data from Germany, where the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose better than expected – to 56.6 points (the forecast assumed that the indicator would remain at the level of 52.2).

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EUR/USD. September 24, 2020 – Euro is trading in the area of ​​local lows

On Thursday, the euro remains in a weak position and hovers around 1.1640. The pressure on the currency is exerting strong demand for the dollar as a «safe» asset amid a rise in the number of new cases of coronavirus in the world. According to experts, in Germany, Spain, Portugal and other countries, daily incidence records are being updated.

The dollar rallies even as the preliminary September Markit index of US services PMI declines. The indicator was 54.6 points against the previous value of 55.0. At the same time, the official data on this indicator reflected a slight improvement and showed an increase to 53.5 points from the previous 53.1.

At the same time, the euro was under pressure today from the data on the business climate from IFO in Germany. The index rose to just 93.4 points, while the forecasts assumed growth to 93.8. In the afternoon, you should pay attention to the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. The number of applications is expected to decrease from 860 thousand to 845 thousand. If the forecasts justify themselves, the dollar will receive additional support, since such data signal a further recovery of the labor market.

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EUR/USD. September 25, 2020 – The dollar is confidently moving to new highs

The EUR/USD pair continues to decline on Friday, and the euro runs the risk of renewing local minimums in the 1.1620 area during the day. The current quote for the pair is 1.1635.

The main support for the dollar, driving its growth, comes from the need of global investors for «safe» assets, as more countries mark the signs of a second wave of coronavirus. At the same time, market participants ignore the relatively weak American statistics. According to yesterday's data, the number of applications for unemployment benefits showed an increase to 870 thousand from the previous level of 866 thousand. The forecast was more optimistic and assumed a decrease in the indicator to 845 thousand.

The dollar showed some weakening yesterday, as investors' appetite for risky assets increased amid resumption of talks on additional stimulus for the US economy in the amount of $2.2 trillion.

Today we should pay attention to the publication of the US report on orders for durable goods for August, where the indicator could have increased by 1.1% m/m after earlier growth by 11.4% m/m. Macroeconomic publications are not expected in the euro area, so the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will depend on data from the United States.

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GBP/USD. September 28, 2020 – Sterling is correcting after long weakening

On Monday, the British pound rate is showing some growth, approaching the level of 1.2850. However, this recovery can be regarded more as a corrective movement against a long downtrend, since the fundamental background for the sterling remains negative.

The British currency is still under pressure amid Brexit uncertainty. There is very little time left before the UK's exit from the EU, but the parties failed to reach an agreement on a trade deal. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson does not compromise with Brussels and is determined to leave the European Union on any terms.

In addition, the UK is showing the most dangerous situation among other European countries with the second wave of coronavirus. The authorities are forced to strengthen restrictive measures in order to avoid a complete lockdown, like in the spring.

Today the economic calendar is empty, therefore, given the news background, the pair will continue to fluctuate below the level of 1.2850 until new drivers appear.

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USD/CAD. September 29, 2020 – Looney makes weak attempts to recover

On Tuesday, the USD/CAD pair is showing a moderate decline, moving in the range of 1.3350-1.3400. The current quote for the pair is 1.3360.

The trading instrument is in the area of ​​local highs in anticipation of new movement drivers. In the context of the coming second wave of the pandemic, the US dollar feels more confident than the «Canadian». However, there are factors that put some pressure on the USD rate. In particular, this is the uncertainty associated with the upcoming presidential elections.

The first debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden kicks off tomorrow. The further direction of the American currency and its main Forex opponents will depend on the results of the meeting.

Macroeconomic calendar for today is not rich in publications. Attention should be paid to data on producer prices in Canada, but the rate of their decline should remain unchanged at 0.7%, so they are unlikely to somehow affect the Canadian dollar. The US is to report on the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The indicator is expected to grow from 84.8 to 89.2 points.

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Brent. October 01, 2020 – Oil recovers after EIA report

During trading on Wednesday, oil started to rise to $42.50 per barrel. The prices were supported by data from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country. According to a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), oil reserves in the reporting week fell by 2 million barrels to 492.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted an increase in reserves by 800 thousand barrels.

Now total US stocks are about 13% above the 5-year average. At the same time, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 683 thousand barrels to 228.2 million barrels, while analysts expected their decline by 700 thousand barrels. Oil production in the US remained unchanged from the previous week at 10.7 million barrels per day.

Additional support for oil prices was provided by the decline in the US dollar across the Forex market amid increased hopes for the approval of a new package of fiscal stimulus measures in the United States. Market participants expect that the new bailout fund will be able to improve the prospects for economic growth and positively affect the demand for commodity assets. Thus, in case of agreement on the aid package, the current recovery in Brent may continue, the main target of the «bulls» is the $43 per barrel area.

GBP/USD. September 30, 2020 – The pound is consolidating at the 1.2850 area

The pound sterling has suspended growth against the dollar and is consolidating in the area of ​​1.2850. Statistics released today in the UK reflected local improvements in the UK economy. However, these data relate more to the II quarter, so the market is in no hurry to assess them too positively.

In particular, final UK 2Q GDP fell 19.8% QoQ versus a previous estimate of a 20.4% decline. Analysts did not predict a revision of the indicator, so we can say that the statistics have become a little more positive.

The final calculation of the volume of business investments in the second quarter reflected a decrease of 26.5% qoq, while according to the first estimate, the indicator fell by 31.4%. Business caution can be attributed not only to the coronavirus pandemic, but also to the difficult Brexit negotiations. It can be assumed that business is simply not in a hurry to invest finance so as not to take risks, while the prospects for Brexit are so uncertain.

Today the pair will spend the day in a narrow range of 1.2800-1.2850. The RSI indicator has stabilized in the neutral zone, which only confirms this scenario.

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EUR/USD. October 05, 2020 – Euro continues to move to new highs

At the beginning of the week, the EUR/USD pair managed to recover to the level of 1.1760, retracing the weak data on the US labor market, published last Friday. At the end of September, the US economy was able to create only 661 thousand new jobs outside agriculture, while the last month was marked by an increase of 1.489 million. Analysts predicted an increase of 850 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the United States in September fell from 8.4% to 7.9%.

The current quote for the pair is 1.1745. Some support for the dollar, as a defensive asset, was provided by the news of a positive test for coronavirus from US President D. Trump. On the eve of the presidential elections, Trump's illness could seriously harm the candidacy of the incumbent, who, as you know, is already lagging behind his opponent Joe Biden.

In addition to the situation with Trump's disease, investors are awaiting the decision of the US Congress on a new package of fiscal assistance to the population and companies affected by the pandemic. As soon as the stimulus is agreed upon, the pressure on the US dollar will intensify, which will lead to further growth of the European currency.

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EUR/USD. October 06, 2020 – Euro strengthens amid growing appetite for risky assets

At the trading on Monday, the EUR/USD pair managed to rise to the level of 1.1800 amid increased demand for risky assets after the news of D. Trump's discharge from the hospital. Moreover, rumors emerged in the American session that an agreement between Democrats and Republicans would soon be reached on economic stimulus, further fueling investors' appetite for risk.

However, on Tuesday the asset dropped to 1.1780. It became known that the American president, although he refused hospitalization, still feels unwell, which increases political uncertainty in the United States on the eve of the upcoming presidential election. As you know, while the candidate from the Democratic Party Joe Biden in the ratings is 14 points ahead of the incumbent president.

At the same time, the upcoming Brexit continues to exert pressure on the European currency. And until the UK's exit from the EU takes place, one should not expect an active strengthening of EUR/USD.

Today in the eurozone were published data on the volume of industrial orders in Germany: the indicator rose above forecasts (growth to 4.5% against the forecast of decline to 2.6%). The United States will provide statistics on imports and exports, as well as the number of vacancies in the JOLTS labor market in August. You should also pay attention to the speeches of the heads of the Central Banks of Europe (Christine Lagarde) and the USA (J. Powell).

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EUR/USD. October 07, 2020 – Trump has increased the volatility of the pair

At the end of Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair dipped to the level of 1.1745. Increased trading volatility was observed throughout the day, since after the discharge of American President D. Trump from the hospital, the demand for risky assets increased, and the euro managed to grow to 1.1765.

However, then Trump surprised the markets with his decision to end negotiations with Democrats on additional stimulus, which led to an increase in demand for the US dollar. Trump noted that he does not want the money to go to help the poorly governed states under Democratic rule. It is worth noting that the Republicans made a $1.6 trillion proposal to the Democrats. Democrats, in turn, insisted on the allocation of amounts from $2.2 to $2.6 trillion.

Democratic presidential candidate Joseph Biden equated such a decision by the incumbent with a betrayal of the American people.

Today the EUR/USD pair will consolidate in the 1.1750 area. In the evening, you should pay attention to the publication of the FOMC minutes.

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EUR/USD. October 08, 2020 – The pair is volatile above the 1.1750 level

On Thursday, the euro fell to 1.1750 after rising to 1.1780 earlier. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly stopped negotiations with Democrats on an economic aid package, which led to the escape from risky assets and strengthening of the US dollar.

On Wednesday, the head of the White House said that he was already ready to sign some stimulus measures. Congress immediately voted for the government bills, which, among other things, include a package of measures to support airlines.

The dynamics of the pair is also influenced by the situation with the presidential elections in the United States. Pre-election polls show that the Democratic candidate Joe Biden is in the lead, and if he wins, Democrats could take control of the US Senate. As a result, the authorities will begin to adopt bills that run counter to previous policies.

Today we should pay attention to the data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Moreover, these data can provoke a jump in volatility in the market and a weakening of the dollar, since the number of initial applications is projected to increase. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1765, which confirms the forecast for further growth of the euro.

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EUR/USD. October 09, 2020 – Euro has returned to the highs of 1.1800

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its confident ascent and reached the 1.1800 level. Interest in risky assets returned to the markets after Donald Trump announced that Nancy Pelosi, the President of the House of Representatives of the Congress, was ready to conclude an agreement on an aid package that would support the airline industry. The aid also involves a one-time financial payment to the American unemployed in the amount of $1200.

However, the rally in the European currency may be restrained by alarming news from Europe, where the second wave of coronavirus is gaining momentum. For example, in Germany, the number of infected has increased sharply, which may again lead to the introduction of tough restrictions. In this case, the «bears» will be able to seize the initiative in the euro/dollar pair.

The economic calendar is practically empty today. Traders continue to win back yesterday's data on the US labor market, which were worse than expected. In particular, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 840 thousand, while analysts expected an increase to 820 thousand.

GBP/USD. October 09, 2020 – Pound is moving in different directions at the end of the week

At the end of the week, the GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions in the area of 1.2950. Today, macroeconomic data from the UK was published, which somewhat disappointed investors, but did not have a visible impact on the dynamics of the pair.

In particular, GDP growth for the month decreased from 6.6% to 2.1%. Industrial output fell to 0.3%, while manufacturing output fell to 0.7%.

The current moderate strengthening of the sterling can be explained by the general weakness of the US dollar in the Forex market. Earlier the US released data on applications for unemployment benefits, which were worse than forecasts. Also, pressure on the dollar was exerted by yesterday's statements by representatives of world Central Banks that the US economic recovery is developing worse than expected, which clearly shows the Fed's shortcomings.

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USD/CAD. October 12, 2020 – Canadian dollar strengthens to 1.31

At the beginning of the week, the US dollar is weakening across the entire spectrum of the market, which allowed the USD/CAD pair to fall to the 1.3100 area. The current quote is 1.3135.

The weakening of the US dollar was fueled by news of the resumption of talks by US lawmakers on an additional fiscal stimulus package. Market participants expect that an agreement between Democrats and Republicans will be reached soon, which will weaken the national currency.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar is receiving support from high oil prices and strong macroeconomic statistics. For several days in a row, Brent oil quotes traded above $43 per barrel, and the growth of the oil market, as a rule, acts as a driver for the strengthening of commodity currencies, including the Canadian dollar.

Moreover, last week a Canadian labor market report was published, according to which the number of employed people increased by 378.2 thousand in September, while the forecast of growth was only 156.6 thousand. Unemployment, respectively, fell from 10.2% to 9.0%. Today the economic calendar is almost empty, the pair will trade slightly above 1.31.

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EUR/USD. October 13, 2020 – Dollar grows in anticipation of inflation data

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair started to decline from the level of 1.1830. Today the downward trend continues, the current quote for the pair is 1.1780.

Pressure on risky assets came from yet another unsuccessful congressional negotiation on a new stimulus package. Nancy Pelosi has again rejected proposals from Donald Trump's team, which increases the likelihood that a decision on stimulus will not be made before the presidential elections on November 3.

Moreover, the growing gap in the rating of Joe Biden, the main opponent of Donald Trump in the presidential race, suggests that in the event of his (Biden’s) victory, the Democrats will constitute the majority in all power structures.

Today you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the United States, which should accelerate from 1.3% to 1.5%. In addition to the fact that the rise in inflation itself is a positive factor, it is also important that the indicators are close to the target levels of the Fed. Thus, in anticipation of these data, the pair will continue to decline to the 1.1770 area.

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EUR/USD. October 14, 2020 – Euro declines amid negative external background

The euro is losing ground on Wednesday, dropping to 1.1715. Demand for the US dollar rose after news of another deadlock in the Brexit negotiations, a new lockdown in the UK and the suspension of coronavirus vaccine testing by two pharmaceutical companies.

At the same time, the dollar is supported by statistics from the United States: the inflation rate increased by 0.2%, increasing for the fourth month in a row. Today you should pay attention to the statistics on the US producer price index in September, as well as on the data on industrial production in the eurozone in August. The latest figures reflected only 0.7% MoM growth in European production, after rising 4.1% in July. Analysts had forecast growth of 0.8%.

However, the strengthening of the American currency is held back by the course of the election race in the United States. The position of Joe Biden, the main rival of the incumbent President Donald Trump, remains strong, and his army of fans is growing every day. Experts point out that Biden's victory in the elections could give the economy more impetus for recovery and create conditions for a rally in the stock and foreign exchange sectors.

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USD/CAD. October 15, 2020 – Dollar hits 1.32 amid spread of second wave of coronavirus

On Thursday, the USD/CAD pair continues to trade near local highs just above the 1.3200 level. The US dollar is gaining support amid rising market concerns about the spread of the second wave of coronavirus worldwide.

In addition, investors drew attention to the suspension of trials of the Covid-19 vaccine by two US pharmaceutical companies due to the appearance of side effects.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. Only data on the US labor market from ADP and speeches by members of the Board of the Bank of Canada and its head Tim Lane can attract attention.

The United States will provide data on applications for unemployment benefits: it is expected that the number of initial applications can grow from 840 thousand to 845 thousand, and the number of repeated applications should decrease from 10 976 thousand to 10 500 thousand. This means that the duration of unemployment in the United States continues to decline, which is currently the most important factor for the growth of the dollar.

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EUR/USD. October 16, 2020 – The euro is growing slightly from the level of 1.17

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately from the level of 1.1700, the current quote is 1.1725. During the current week, the euro showed weakening, responding to a decrease in demand for risky assets due to political and economic uncertainty in the United States and the worsening epidemiological situation in Covid in the world.

Experts note that restrictive measures have been reintroduced in many European cities, since they recorded significant jumps in the incidence of coronavirus.

Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the complexity of the Brexit negotiations. London and Brussels have failed to move forward on the deal, exacerbating the risks of Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

However, today the euro has started to grow. The pressure on the dollar was exerted by yesterday's data on the labor market, which continues to experience difficulties for the second week in a row. The number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 898 thousand against the previous level of 845 thousand. The forecast assumed a decrease to 810 thousand.

At the end of the day, the US is to release data on retail sales, which growth is expected to slow from 2.6% to 2.2%. You should also pay attention to the volume of industrial production in the States: experts predict a slowdown in the decline in production from -7.7% to -6.6%.

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Brent. October 19, 2020 – Oil fixed at comfortable levels

Brent oil prices have consolidated above $42 per barrel. The current quotation of the asset is $42.77.

Today, markets are focused on the meeting of the OPEC + ministerial monitoring committee. The parties to the agreement will meet to assess the state of the market, and it is unlikely that any decisions will be made regarding the supply. This will most likely happen at a meeting scheduled for November 30 – December 1.

One of the scenarios for the forthcoming report assumes that the oil market in 2021 will be characterized by weak demand and growing supply. For this reason, the participants in the energy pact can discuss easing the restrictions from January 1.

Thus, if a gradual increase in oil production by OPEC + countries against the backdrop of weak demand and an increase in production in Libya is questionable, the initiative on the oil market will finally go to buyers, which will allow Brent quotes to gain a foothold above $43.50 per barrel.

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EUR/USD. October 20, 2020 – Euro continues to rise above 1.18

The European currency continues to strengthen, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1805. Market participants were actively selling the dollar on expectations of an early agreement on fiscal stimulus in the United States. On Sunday, House speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that if a decision on the issue of incentives is not made within 48 hours, the deal will not take place.

The euro was further supported by the comments of Christine Lagarde. The head of the ECB noted that she considers it necessary to leave the volume of the economic recovery fund in the amount of 750 billion euros. However, the strengthening of the euro above 1.1850 is not yet considered, as the epidemiological situation in Europe remains extremely tense.

Today you should pay attention to the publication of data on construction in the United States. Experts predict an increase in the number of building permits issued from 1.476 million to 1.52 million.

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EUR/USD. October 21, 2020 – Euro hits one-month high

The Euro has managed to grow to the level of 1.1870 since the beginning of the week, but on Wednesday it started to decline to the area of 1.1840. The dollar was pressured by expectations of an early agreement on economic stimulus measures in the States: House speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday forced politicians to speed up the process of discussing the aid package.

An additional factor that puts pressure on the US currency is the growing sympathy of US residents for Joe Biden during the election race in the States. And if Trump's main opponent wins the presidential election, a lot of money will be poured into the US economy, which is obviously not a positive factor for the dollar.

Yesterday, statistics on construction in the United States were published: the number of new home bookmarks for September increased to 1.42 million against the previous figure of 1.39 million. The number of new housing permits issued was 1.55 million after the August figure of 1.48 million. Such data provided support to the dollar, which suspended the Euro rally.

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, in the evening hours you should pay attention to the report on the Beige book in the United States.

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EUR/USD. October 22, 2020 – Euro declines towards 1.1800

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is declining moderately, continuing the dynamics of the previous day. The current quote for the asset is 1.1817. The macroeconomic calendar is practically empty today, all the market's attention is directed to what is happening in the US Congress.

A week and a half before the presidential election, the White House came close to concluding an agreement on a new stimulus package for the American economy. D. Trump said yesterday that he was ready to allocate $2.2 trillion to support the economic system, contrary to the intentions of his own Republican Party.

Thus, the fiscal support of the United States will definitely be carried out regardless of whether Trump or Biden takes the presidency in November.

Today we should pay attention to the publication of data on the consumer confidence index in the euro zone for October, where there may be a slight deterioration in the indicator from 13.9 points to 15 points. The US is to release September data on home sales in the secondary real estate market and statistics on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits. Experts predict a slight decrease in the indicator.

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GBP/USD. October 27, 2020 – Pound sterling recovers moderately

The GBP/USD pair is moderately strengthening on Tuesday, recovering from yesterday's decline to 1.2990. The current sterling quote is 1.3037.

Investors reacted positively to the news of the extension of the Brexit negotiations even before Wednesday. If earlier the UK was already ready to leave the EU without a deal, now there are hopes that an agreement between London and Brussels will still be reached by the end of December.

Experts note that the new round of negotiations, which started on October 22, is proceeding in an optimistic manner, and at the moment the parties have managed to agree on more than 90% of the controversial issues.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. Attention can only be attracted by data on orders for durable goods in the US for September, as well as statistics on the consumer confidence index. Orders should rise by 0.1%, while the second indicator should rise from 101.8 points to 102.5 points. If the forecasts come true, the dollar will start strengthening to the area below 1.30.

GBP/USD. October 26, 2020 – Pound recovers after last week's fall

GBP/USD resumed gains earlier in the week, climbing from 1.3000 to 1.3075. Last week, the pair moved mainly within the downtrend from the 1.3170 level.

All the attention of investors today is riveted to any news on Brexit. It became known over the weekend that London and Brussels have decided to extend the talks until Wednesday. Last week, the British authorities already announced their readiness to leave the EU without an agreement at all, if Brussels does not compromise. In response, the European Union stated its desire to continue negotiations and reach an agreement, but «not at any cost.»

Interesting statistics were released last Friday. Retail sales in the UK unexpectedly rose 1.6% against the forecast for growth of 0.5%. At the same time, the business activity indices in the country came out worse than forecasted: the total PMI fell from 55.7 to 52.9 points, while the activity in the manufacturing sector fell from 54.1 to 53.3 points.

Important statistics from Britain are not planned today. In the US, data on new home sales will be published in September. Sales are expected to decline from 4.8% to 2.8%, which will put pressure on the dollar in the evening hours.

EUR/USD. October 26, 2020 – The dollar strengthened to the level of 1.18

The EUR/USD pair has returned to the 1.18 level again, falling from the 1.1860 area. The euro was pressured by the data on the IFO business climate index in Germany in September: the indicator came out worse than forecast, falling to 92.7 points against expectations of a reduction to 93.0. Otherwise, today the economic calendar is practically empty, and all the attention of the market will be shifted from statistics to politics.

As you know, the US presidential elections will be held on November 3. All pre-election debates have already ended and it remains only to wait for the event itself. And depending on the results, the path of the country's development and its monetary policy will be diametrically opposite. At the end of the debate, Democratic challenger Joe Biden takes the lead in the race.

In the evening hours, you should pay attention to the sales of new homes in the United States in September. Sales are expected to decline from 4.8% to 2.8%, which could somewhat halt the dollar's strengthening today.

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EUR/USD. October 28, 2020 – Euro fell sharply to 1.1740

The EUR/USD pair began to decline sharply amid growing investor appetite for safe assets. The current quote for the pair is 1.1740.

The pressure on risky assets is exerted by the widespread development of the second wave of Covid-19 and the approaching date of the US presidential election (November 3). At the same time, the dollar was supported by yesterday's data on the volume of new orders for durable goods in the United States: in September, the indicator increased by 1.9% m/m after gaining 0.4% a month earlier. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.5% m/m.

The indicator, excluding orders for transport and utility equipment, expanded 0.8% m/m after strengthening earlier by 1% m/m. The actual data exceeded the expectations of specialists twice.

The euro was directly pressured by rumors that Germany plans to introduce a two-week quarantine with a stop to everything except important social facilities. In France, they are discussing the strengthening of restrictive measures for a month, and in the UK, options for a second lockdown are on the agenda.

The economic calendar is empty for today, so the dynamics of the pair will continue to depend on the situation around the second wave of coronavirus and the expectations of tomorrow's ECB meeting.

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EUR/USD. October 29, 2020 – Euro fell to 1.1700

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a steady decline to the level of 1.1700. The euro was pressured by news of additional restrictive measures in Germany and France. In France, a nationwide quarantine is introduced from October 30 to December 1, and in Germany – from November 2.

An additional driver of the weakening of the European currency was the news on Brexit. This week, there has been some progress in negotiations between the UK and the European Union, which has led to the strengthening of the EUR/GBP pair. This, in turn, put pressure on EUR/USD through the cross.

Today we should pay attention to the important meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the conference of Christine Lagarde. A softer rhetoric is expected from the regulator amid the threat of a repeated recession in the economy. In addition, the ECB may adjust its economic forecasts downward.

In the US, data will be published on the number of applications for unemployment benefits. Their total number should decrease by 510 thousand. Moreover, a decrease is expected for both initial and repeated calls. Also, attention will be drawn to the report on US GDP for the III quarter and the index of unfinished sales in the real estate market in September.

USD/CAD. October 29, 2020 – The US dollar is growing steadily in tandem with the «Canadian»

The USD/CAD pair has been demonstrating confident strengthening in recent days. The current quote for the pair is 1.3340.

A meeting of the Board of the Bank of Canada took place yesterday, and the regulator, as expected, kept the key interest rate at 0.25%. In addition, it was decided to adjust the asset purchase program: now the bank will buy long-term bonds, which affect the rates on loans needed by households and businesses.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Maclem previously said that the central bank is likely to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% for at least two years. These plans put pressure on the Canadian dollar.

An additional negative was brought by the decline in oil prices. Brent quotes fell to $38.30 a barrel for the first time since June 1. The driver of the decline was the data on oil reserves, which showed the strongest weekly growth since July, as well as the continued increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the world. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil inventories rose by 4.3 million barrels.

Given the current news background, we can expect further growth in the USD/CAD quotes.

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EUR/USD. October 30, 2020 – Euro continues to trade below 1.1700

At the end of the week, the euro continues to remain in the area of ​​minimums below the level of 1.17. The current quote for the pair is 1.1670. The European currency was under pressure from the results of yesterday's meeting of the ECB.

The European regulator kept the monetary policy unchanged (rate at 0%), but did not rule out the likelihood of its easing already in December. Additional pressure on the euro is exerted by the widespread withdrawal of investors from risky assets.

At the same time, the dollar was supported by strong data from the US. A preliminary estimate of GDP for the third quarter showed economic growth by 33.1% q/q, with a forecast of an increase of 31.0%. In the second quarter, the country's economy collapsed by 31.4%. In addition, the US recorded a 40.7% rise in consumer spending in the third quarter, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 791 thousand to 751 thousand this week.

Today, one should pay attention to the data on GDP of the eurozone: the indicator in the third quarter of 2020 increased by 12.7% q/q and decreased by 4.3% y/y, which turned out to be much better than forecasts (an increase of 9.4% q/q and a decrease of 7% y/y). This data will allow the euro to regain its losses somewhat.

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EUR/USD. November 2, 2020 – Euro has suspended its decline

November began for the euro with weakening to the level of 1.1615. There are enough pressure factors on the European currency. Here and a decrease in appetite for risky assets, and lockdowns in Germany and France, and the presidential elections in the United States. Additional pressure on the euro rate is exerted by the dollar's popularity as a safe asset.

Tomorrow will be the most significant event of the year – the US presidential election. Strong market volatility is likely from Tuesday to Thursday, as the future monetary policy of the United States is highly dependent on the new figure in the presidency.

In Germany, from today, a soft lockdown is being introduced, which includes restrictive measures to reduce the spread of coronavirus in Europe. France also intends to introduce measures in the coming days. However, both the German and French economies look rather weak and may not withstand the second lockdown.

Statistics on PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany were released today. Both indicators came out better than expected, which gave the euro some support and allowed it to rise to 1.1650.

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Brent. November 3, 2020 – Oil rises on US dollar weakness

On Tuesday, Brent quotes are growing, reaching $40 per barrel. Prices are supported by the general weakening of the US dollar ahead of today's US presidential elections.

However, despite the upward momentum, market participants fear that a decrease in demand due to an intensification of the COVID wave amid growing supply will lead to oversupply and a collapse in prices, as was the case in the I-II quarter of this year.

In addition, the growth in oil production in the world continues to act as a factor for the weakening of Brent. The number of operating oil platforms in the US has reached its highest level since May this year, according to a Baker Hughes report. Moreover, in Libya, oil production reached 800 thousand barrels per day, and the figure could reach 1.3 million barrels by early next year.

In such conditions, it will be quite difficult for OPEC+ to maintain a balance in the oil market. The next meeting of the organization is scheduled for the end of November, while the risks of oversupply remain the main driving force of the market.

EUR/USD. November 3, 2020 – Dollar weakens against euro in anticipation of presidential elections

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair on Tuesday are growing steadily, returning to the level of 1.1700. The current quote for the pair is 1.1715.

Today is a very big day for the US dollar as America chooses its new President. And the future policy and economy of the country will depend on who will take the place of the head of the White House. The results of the voting will become known only tomorrow, therefore, during the day, the markets will experience increased trading volatility.

It should be noted that in 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidential election, the euro appreciated by 270 pp. Trump has threatened to appeal the vote if he is defeated this year, putting pressure on the dollar amid political uncertainty.

The American currency is under pressure, even despite strong data on business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Yesterday the business activity index for October was published: the indicator strengthened and amounted to 53.4 points against the previous value of 53.2. Today you should pay attention to the data on the volume of industrial orders in September: growth is expected from 0.7% to 1%.

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GBP/USD. November 5, 2020 – Pound rises on general US dollar weakness

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair is growing steadily, reaching the level of 1.3075. Today, a meeting of the Bank of England took place, following which the regulator kept the rate at 0.1%, and also announced the expansion of the purchase of government bonds by 150 billion pounds, bringing the total volume to 895 billion.

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank has shared economic forecasts in the IV quarter: the regulator expects a decrease in indicators, since a four-week quarantine begins in the UK from today.

The US dollar against the pound sterling is weakening across the entire spectrum of the market after the publication of the interim results of the US presidential election. Joe Biden got 264 electoral votes and until the final victory he has to gain 6. At the same time, Donald Trump's team did not agree with such results and filed an application with the Georgia State Court to recount the voting results.

Despite the local growth caused by the weakness of the American currency, the general background for the pound remains negative. There are risks of uncertainty about Brexit, a nationwide quarantine, and weak economic indicators. The total business activity index in October fell from 52.3 to 52.1 points. The index of business activity in the service sector fell to 51.4 points.

EUR/USD. November 5, 2020 – Euro has reached the level of 1.18

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continues to grow steadily, approaching the 1.1800 level. Markets continue to await the outcome of the US presidential election. The results are still unknown, as the vote goes through the mail and the election committee has not yet collected all the votes.

According to preliminary data, Joe Biden collected 264 electoral votes and he lacks only 6 votes to complete victory. 214 boards voted for Trump. The team of the incumbent president has already filed lawsuits demanding a recount of the voting results in a number of states.

The current quote for the pair is 1.1795. Uncertainty regarding the summing up of the voting results may last until the end of the week, and only then the further direction of the pair will become known.

In addition to the election results, the meeting of the US Federal System and the subsequent comments of the regulator's representatives will be of interest. It is expected that until the passions around the elections subside and the White House does not decide on its further policy, the Fed will refrain from harsh statements and decisions. And under the current conditions, this can act as a positive factor for the dollar exchange rate. However, while the pair is growing steadily and during the day it can consolidate above the level of 1.18.

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EUR/USD. November 6, 2020 – Euro confidently moves towards 1.19

EUR/USD maintains its upward momentum, approaching the 1.1850 level. Markets continue to monitor the US presidential elections, and the vote count is still in progress. So far, 264 electors have voted for Joe Biden, while 214 have voted for Donald Trump.

Biden's headquarters have already announced their victory, but Trump considers himself «the winner by legal vote» and is demanding a recount in some states. Market participants expect that if Joe Biden wins, the Democrats will quickly approve a package of fiscal stimulus measures, which supports risky assets today.

During the day, you should pay attention to the publication of the US Department of Labor report on the state of the labor market. The unemployment rate may fall from 7.9% to 7.7%. In addition, another 510 thousand new jobs can be created. If the data is confirmed, the dollar will receive some support.

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EUR/USD. November 9, 2020 – Euro consolidates near the level of 1.19

The euro continues to strengthen against the dollar, close to the 1.1900 level. The US presidential election was won by Democratic representative Joe Biden, which put strong pressure on the dollar. The reason is that investors now expect more stimulus for the US economy, despite continuing divisions in Congress.

Last Friday, the United States presented a block of interesting economic statistics that went unnoticed amid the elections. In particular, the unemployment rate in the country in October fell to 6.9% against the forecast of 7.7%. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 638 thousand, while an increase of only 600 thousand was expected.

The only thing that turned out to be worse than expected was the increase in wages. The indicator on the average hourly wages in October increased by only 0.1% against the expectation of growth by 0.2%. In general, we can say that the US labor market still maintains a positive momentum.

The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1870. The RSI indicator moves horizontally, which signals the formation of a flat below the level of 1.19.

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Brent. November 10, 2020 – Oil shows strong upward momentum

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil continues to rise, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quotation of the asset is $42.88 per barrel. Experts note that such an upward trend has become the best over the past 6 months.

The growth driver was the news from the pharmaceutical company Pfizer that the vaccine it has developed is capable of protecting in 90% of cases of COVID-19 infection. The company said that they plan to obtain permission to sell the new drug by the end of November.

A cure for the coronavirus could significantly revive and revitalize the tourism industry, which has driven oil prices up.

Additional support for Brent was provided by the comments of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia on the readiness of OPEC + to postpone the decision to revise the restrictions on oil production. According to the latest data, the total production of OPEC + countries in October increased by 210 thousand barrels per day and reached 32.27 million barrels per day. The increase in oil production was mainly due to the restoration of work in the fields of Libya.

EUR/USD. November 10, 2020 – Euro declines after yesterday's highs

The EUR/USD pair is showing a correctional decline today after yesterday's rise to 1.1920. The current quote is 1.1775. Yesterday was full of news that contributed to increased volatility.

First, Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election offers hopes for improving and strengthening America's international relations. However, buyers began to fix longs on the announcement by the head of the US General Services Administration of the refusal to recognize Joe Biden's victory, which increased political uncertainty in the country.

On the other hand, investors were optimistic about news from pharmaceutical company Pfizer about the success of a new vaccine capable of preventing 90% of coronavirus infections.

At the same time, the European currency was under pressure from the previously published statistics from the eurozone. Sentix investor confidence index for November deteriorated to -10.0 points against the previous value of -8.3. The data, however, turned out to be better than expected, implying a decline to -15.0 points. Additional negativity was brought by the news that the EU decided to impose reciprocal customs duties on US goods in the amount of $ 4 billion.

Today during the day the pair will adhere to the flat dynamics in the 1.1800 area.

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EUR/USD. November 11, 2020 – Euro continues to weaken against the dollar

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair fluctuates weakly on both sides of the 1.1800 level, while the downward trend remains. Weak economic statistics from Germany put pressure on the euro: the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to 39.0 points, which was the lowest level since April this year. An additional negative is the worsening of the epidemiological situation in Europe.

At the same time, participants in the foreign exchange market are concerned about Donald Trump's attempts to annul the voting results in Michigan and Pennsylvania. And his further efforts in this direction will only increase the uncertainty in the United States and suppress the demand for risky assets.

Thus, the euro will continue to decline during the day, responding to the negative external background. The economic calendar is empty today, in the United States it is a day off in honor of the Veterans Day. Only in the evening will the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde be of interest.

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GBP/USD. November 12, 2020 – Pound falls on weak economic data

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continues to decline, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quote for the asset is 1.3145.

Uncertainty around Brexit continues to exert pressure on the pound sterling. Under current agreements, the UK and the EU must agree on an initial draft of the deal by November 19. The final agreement of the contract should take place before the end of December 2020.

Despite the ongoing negotiations, there is still no draft agreement, so the risks of a «hard» Brexit (without a deal) are growing every day. In this case, Britain will leave the single market and common customs space.

A large block of statistics from the UK was published today, which also put pressure on the British currency rate, as all data turned out to be worse than forecasted.

GDP in the III quarter increased by 15.5% in comparison with the previous quarter, which turned out to be worse than the forecast. Experts had expected growth to 15.8%. However, this growth has been a record since 1955. Industrial production data for September showed an increase of 0.5%, while experts had expected an increase of 0.8%. Manufacturing production rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.7% in August.

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GBP/USD. November 16, 2020 – Pound shows high volatility in Brexit negotiations

The new week started with a weakening of the pound sterling to 1.3160 ​​from 1.3240. The British currency is under pressure from news on Brexit and trade negotiations between London and Brussels.

A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday that previous differences over equal terms of trade and fisheries remain in trade negotiations with the European Union. The politician noted that negotiations will resume this week. There is about a month and a half left until the end of the transition period, and the peak of tension in the negotiations will probably be in December.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty. Attention may be drawn to the speech of the representative of the Bank of England J. Haskell.

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Brent. November 17, 2020 – Oil holds in September highs

Yesterday, Brent quotes managed to reach the level of $44.60 per barrel, which was the highest since mid-September. The current quotation of the asset is $43.77. Prices are being supported by improved market sentiment amid reports of a new coronavirus vaccine. It became known that Moderna achieved 94.5% efficiency in trials of its drug from Covid, which strengthened investors' hopes for a global economic recovery, as well as demand for hydrocarbons.

Additional support for Brent was provided by macroeconomic data from China: industrial production in October increased by 6.9% compared to the same period last year. Retail sales added 4.3% compared to October 2019.

OPEC+ plans to refrain from increasing production until the oil market returns to balance are also a factor in the growth of oil prices. On the eve of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee announced plans to extend the current restrictions on production for another three months.

However, the risks for the oil market are still high. The rate of spread of coronavirus infection around the world continues to grow, and the likelihood of new lockdowns remains. Which, in turn, cloud the prospects for global economic growth.

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Brent. November 18, 2020 – Oil in positive territory despite negative external background

Brent oil quotes continue to rise. Current price is $44.20 per barrel. «Bulls» were not stopped even by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which oil reserves in the United States rose by 4.2 million barrels over the week. Today you should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy.

Yesterday, a meeting of the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee was held, which ended without recommendations for a production cut in 2021. Previously, market participants expected the committee to propose OPEC+ countries to extend the current level of production cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2021. The next meeting of the organization will take place only on December 16-17.

The worsening epidemiological situation in the world can also change the current trend to a downward one. The high rates of spread of infection are forcing countries to introduce new social restrictions and quarantines, which, in turn, will inevitably lead to a decrease in economic activity and demand for hydrocarbons.

EUR/USD. November 18, 2020 – Euro weakly hovers below 1.19 level

The EUR/USD pair continues to feel confident and is approaching the 1.1900 level. The current quote is 1.1880.

The dollar is still under pressure from the likelihood of a new stimulus to the US economy. Earlier it became known that the Republicans have finally approved a new stimulus package, but now they are talking about an amount of$ 500 billion, although the volume of $1-1.5 trillion was previously discussed. Another uncertainty over the stimulus issue alarmed the markets again.

However, the data from the US released yesterday provided some support to the dollar rate today. Industrial production in the country rose 1.1% m/m in October against the forecast of 1.0% m/m increase. In annual terms, the indicator slightly improved and amounted to -5.3% (-6.7% previously). Capacity utilization in October was at 72.8%, higher than the expected 72.3%.

Thus, today the pair will fluctuate below the level of 1.19 in an attempt to determine the further direction of movement. The released data on inflation in the eurozone did not have a visible effect on the dynamics of the pair, since the indicator remained at the level of -0.3%, as expected.

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EUR/USD. November 19, 2020 – Euro shows decline

At the end of yesterday's session, the EUR/USD pair weakened to the level of 1.1810. The current quote for the pair is 1.1835.

The drivers of the decline were the correction of stock indices and gold, which fell in price after the news from Pfizer. The pharmaceutical company said the new COVID-19 vaccine is 95% effective, up from the previously announced 90%. And gold, as a rule, correlates positively with the European currency, therefore, the decline in the precious metal caused a correction in EUR/USD.

The EU summit on the fight against coronavirus kicks off today. Also on the agenda is the issue of the EU budget plan, which was previously blocked by Hungary and Poland. In the evening, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde will speak.

In the US, data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published. It is expected that the number of initial applications may be reduced from 709 thousand to 685 thousand. And the number of repeated requests should decrease from 6,786 thousand to 6,250 thousand. Also of interest will be the publication of the index of manufacturing activity from the Philadelphia Federal reserve for November and statistics on second-home sales in October.

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GBP/USD. November 20, 2020 – Unexpectedly strong retail sales data supported sterling

Despite the growing risks of a «hard» Brexit, the GBP/USD pair continues to move to local highs in the 1.3300 area. The current quote is 1.3280.

The dynamics of the pair was influenced by the statistics on the labor market in the UK. The number of applications for primary unemployment benefits for the week increased from 711 to 742 thousand against the forecast of 707 thousand. At the same time, investors were pleased with the reduction in secondary circulation from 6.801 million to 6.372 million against expectations of 6.47 million.

Today you should pay attention to the publication of a report on retail sales in the country. The figure in October came out much better than forecasted: sales increased by 1.2% compared to September, when the indicator grew by 1.4%. The forecast assumed growth of only 0.1%. In annual terms, sales increased by 5.8%.

At the same time, difficulties in negotiating Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. Today it became known that negotiations were suspended again, now due to the discovery of Covid from one of the members of the negotiating team.

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EUR/USD. November 23, 2020 – Euro reached the level 1.1900

EUR/USD maintains upward momentum, approaching the 1.1900 level. The current quote for the asset is 1.1890.

Emotions after the presidential elections in the United States have gradually subsided and now all the attention of the markets is shifting to negotiations in Congress on a new stimulus package for the American economy. Moreover, support for risky assets at the moment is provided by news on the vaccine. The UK is expected to approve a vaccine from Pfizer this week.

Friday's statistics from the euro area showed that consumer confidence in November deteriorated in line with forecasts: to -18.0 points against the October value of -16.0. For the European Union, the corresponding indicator fell in November to -19.0 points from the previous -16.5. The data is not very positive, but it was quite expected.

Today we should pay attention to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany: the indicator rose to the level of 57.9 points, which is better than the forecast of 56.5. Activity in the service sector fell slightly short of the forecast and amounted to 46.2. The composite index of business activity for the entire eurozone came out worse than expected: 45.1 points against expectations of 45.8. However, these data did not prevent the euro from continuing to strengthen.

In the evening hours, the USA will present similar data. However, these data are unlikely to support the dollar, as experts predict a decline in absolutely all business activity indices. Thus, the weakening of the dollar will continue throughout the day.

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EUR/USD. November 24, 2020 – Euro is recovering from yesterday's drop to 1.18

Yesterday the euro rate fell sharply to the level of 1.18, but today the EUR/USD quotes returned to the 1.1880 level.

The dollar was supported yesterday by the statistics from the US, which came out stronger than expected and somewhat reduced the fears of market participants about the downturn in the economy. In particular, the preliminary index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit showed an increase in November to 56.7 points against 53.4 earlier. Business activity in the service sector in November increased to 57.7 points from the previous 56.9.

In the eurozone, by contrast, similar indicators look less optimistic. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the region in November fell to 53.6 points from 54.8 in October. The index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in November in the euro area deteriorated to 41.3 points from 46.9 earlier.

At the same time, the euro receives support on the news about the productive development of vaccines against coronavirus - the third option is already known. This restrains the dollar's growth and supports interest in the euro as a risky asset.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, only the data on house prices in the United States will attract attention, the growth rate of which may accelerate from 5.2% to 5.5%, as well as the Conference Board consumer confidence index for November (data is forecast to deteriorate).

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Brent. November 25, 2020 – Oil continues to renew highs

The oil market continues to grow, hitting multi-month highs. Brent is currently quoted at $48.50 per barrel.

Prices are supported by hopes for improved economic outlook and increased demand for hydrocarbons. Pharmaceutical companies continue to share positive news of the success of the Covid vaccines, boosting hopes for a fast global recovery and resumption of international travel.

Additional support for oil was also provided by the results of the recent US presidential election, which was won by the representative of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden. The political uncertainty surrounding the elections has significantly decreased, which has given strength to risky assets, which traditionally include oil.

EUR/USD. November 25, 2020 – Euro has renewed its maximum in early September

On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1930, hitting the high of early September. The European currency is supported by hopes that the coronavirus pandemic will be defeated in the near future. Markets are in anticipation of the imminent production of the Covid vaccine and the recovery of the global economy.

At the same time, the pressure on the dollar came from a weaker than expected value of the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. In November, the indicator fell to 96.1 points against the forecast of 97.7 and the previous value of 100.9 points. The current value has become the lowest in the last three months. Such data indicate that the stability of the labor market and the general state of the economy are still far from ideal.

From such data, it can also be concluded that retail sales in December-January will be weaker than forecasts (simply due to less optimism of buyers).

An additional influence on the dynamics of the pair is provided by the news about the readiness of the administration of US President Donald Trump to begin the process of transferring power to Joe Biden.

Today you should pay attention to the block of statistics from the US: GDP for the III quarter, the volume of orders for durable goods in October, the balance of foreign trade in goods for October and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in October.

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EUR/USD. November 26, 2020 – Euro will continue to rally

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair renewed its early September high at 1.1940, later declining to 1.1900.

The European currency is supported by optimistic investor sentiment: the markets expect that an effective Covid vaccine will appear in the near future, which can contribute to a rapid recovery of the global economy.

The short-term strengthening of the dollar yesterday was caused by strong data on new home sales in October: the indicator rose to 999 thousand against the September value of 959 thousand. The positive statistics ended there, and the rest of the US data only disappointed the markets.

In particular, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose again over the week, from 748 thousand to 778 thousand. The GDP level for the third quarter did not change against the previous figure and amounted to 33.1%, which is worse than the forecasted 33.2%. Most disappointing was the data on personal incomes of American households, which fell 0.7% m / m. At the same time, costs increased by 0.5% m / m.

Moreover, at the end of the day, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve System were published, which indicated that the regulator's course was maintained for further easing of monetary policy. Considering all that has been said, we can conclude that the «rally» of the euro will continue in the near future.

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Brent. November 27, 2020 – Oil is correcting after an upward rally

Yesterday Brent began to decline, interrupting the upward rally. Prices failed to hold on to the reached maximum near $49 per barrel and retreated to $47.45. The current quotation is $48.40 per barrel.

Most likely, the driver of the decline was the news that Venezuela, despite the US sanctions, resumed oil supplies to China. This once again caused investors to worry about a possible oversupply of oil.

The Venezuelan state-owned company PdVSA signed a contract with China to resume oil supplies in August this year. And after the publication of the results of the US presidential election, Venezuela apparently decided to ignore Trump's sanctions.

Today is a quiet trading day as the United States continues to celebrate Thanksgiving. Brent will fluctuate weakly around $48.50 a barrel.

EUR/USD. November 27, 2020 – Euro is trading above 1.1900

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its growth: the current quotation of the asset is 1.1920. Thanksgiving weekend continues in the US, so the dynamics of trading today is rather sluggish.

The euro is strengthening, despite weak data from Germany, published yesterday. The consumer climate index in Germany from the GfK institute for December fell to -6.7 points from -3.1 earlier. This is even worse than predicted, suggesting that consumer sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic.

The index of economic expectations fell to -0.2 points from the previous 7.3, which was the worst value since May this year.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty and the EUR/USD pair will continue to fluctuate slightly above the 1.19 level.

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EUR/USD. November 30, 2020 – Euro continues to rally

The European currency demonstrates steady growth in the trading on Monday, renewing September highs and coming close to strong psychological resistance at 1.20. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1983.

The euro is growing despite the negative statistics released last Friday. In particular, the indicator of sentiment in the eurozone services sector in November fell from -12.1 to -17.3 points, while analysts had expected a fall only to -15.5 points. The level of consumer confidence for the same period decreased from -15.5 to -17.6 points.

The main reason for the growth of the EUR/USD pair can be called the general weakness of the US dollar against the background of persisting significant epidemiological risks. In addition, investors expect that with the arrival of the new Joe Biden administration, long-awaited economic reforms will take place, and urgent programs to help the American economy will be approved. And that won't do the dollar any good.

Today we should pay attention to the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, the consumer price index for November in Germany, as well as data on the volume of pending home sales in the United States in October.

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GBP/USD. November 01, 2020 – The pound is confidently approaching the level of 1.3300

The British currency continues to show a decline from the 1.3400 highs area. The current quote for the pair is 1.3315.

Investors are still awaiting progress in the Brexit negotiations. Earlier, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that the fate of the trade agreement will be decided this week, while the EU is ready to exit without a deal with Great Britain.

Yesterday, the dynamics of the pound was also affected by economic reports: the volume of consumer lending in October fell by 0.6 billion pounds, but the total number of approved applications increased from 91.454 to 97.5 thousand.

Today we should pay attention to the November house price index from Nationwide and the PMI of the manufacturing sector in the UK. Business activity in the country remained at 55.6 points, while analysts predicted the figure at 55.2. In the US, the manufacturing PMI will also be published and Jerome Powell will speak.

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Brent. December 02,2020 – Oil declines after postponing OPEC+ meeting

During trading on Wednesday, oil recovered somewhat after falling to $46.90 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $47.30.

The pressure on prices increased after OPEC+ postponed until Thursday the final decision on oil production quotas, which will operate from January 1, 2021. The oil cartel was supposed to make the appropriate decision on Tuesday.

Currently, the cumulative reduction in oil production by the alliance countries is 7.7 million barrels per day. OPEC+ planned that from January production will increase by 2 million barrels per day. However, the countries did not reach a consensus during the meeting on Monday due to persistent disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over countries that were in bad faith in fulfilling the terms of the deal, in particular Russia.

Market participants are looking forward to the outcome of the next meeting: the most likely outcome will be an extension of the current terms of the deal by three months. However, this is unlikely to be enough to offset the negative impact on demand amid the deteriorating situation with the coronavirus in the world, so the sales in the oil market are likely to continue.

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EUR/USD. December 3, 2020 – Euro updated its April 2018 high

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair continue to update their highs: the current price of the euro is 1.2125. The last time the couple was at such heights at the end of April 2018.

The euro is being supported by investors' hopes that the US authorities are about to start supporting the economy. After the Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress agreed on the size of the fiscal stimulus program in the amount of $ 908 billion, the markets returned to the hope that support will be provided later this year.

An additional «bearish» factor for the greenback is rumors that the Fed will start a «twist» operation in December with the purchase of long-term bonds. In addition, yesterday's data on the labor market from ADP also disappointed investors: statistics showed the worst dynamics since July. It is reported that employment in the private sector will grow by only 307 thousand, which is worse than the forecast of 433 thousand and last month's figure of 404 thousand.

The RSI indicator has leveled off to a horizontal position, which signals that the pair will adhere to flat dynamics during the day near the 1.2100 level.

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EUR/USD. December 04, 2020 – Euro has updated its maximum at around 1.2175

The euro continues to renew its multi-year highs, reaching 1.2175. In November, the growth of the pair was due to the general weakness of the US dollar and increased interest in risky assets. In December, the US currency continues to decline against the background of continuing negotiations on fiscal stimulus in the US Congress.

Democrats and Republicans were finally able to agree on the volume of the aid package, which will amount to $908 billion. At the same time, Joe Biden noted that the American economy will need much more injections.

However, the position of the European currency is rather shaky in the medium term. At the moment, it is the eurozone that is the brake on the world economy, which is confirmed by the recently published statistics on business activity in the region. Market participants assume that the European Central Bank will expand the asset purchase program by at least 500 billion euro at its December meeting and will extend its duration until the end of 2021.

Moreover, the European Union faced problems when discussing the creation of a pandemic rescue fund in the amount of 750 billion euros. Poland and Hungary do not agree with the position of the European Commission, and, possibly, these countries will be excluded from the support program. All of these factors increase political uncertainty in Europe, which could put pressure on the euro in the near future.

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AUD / USD. 07.12 | "Inside bar" above the level of 0.7400

On the daily chart, the Australian Dollar / US Dollar currency pair has formed an “inside bar” candlestick pattern based on the resistance level of 0.7400, giving a signal to buy.

At the end of last week, the AUD / USD price renewed its maximum since August 2018 at 0.7448, after which it went into a slight correction. In the medium term, I would like to see further development of the upward trend.

On the one hand, you can take a closer look at purchases according to the specified pattern, on the other hand, first wait for the development of a correction for a more convenient entry into the market. To make a decision, it makes sense to follow the price behavior and the formation of buy signals on lower timeframes. The next upside target is at 0.7500.

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EUR/AUD. 08.12 | Consolidation between the lines EMA 21 and EMA 60

The euro / Australian dollar currency pair has formed on the daily chart a series of doji patterns above the resistance level of 1.6300, located between the exponential moving averages for 21 and 60 days - EMA 21 and EMA 60.

Earlier, the EUR / AUD price renewed its maximum since November 4, after which it corrected to the nearest strong support level - 1.6300. I would like to see the completion of consolidation and continued growth along the upward trend.

I will monitor the appearance of buy signals. The nearest target is at the level of 1.6400, near the EMA 200 line. The medium-term target for growth is at the level of 1.6500.

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GBP / USD. December 09, 2020 - Pin bar "from the level of 1.3300

The GBP / USD currency pair formed a pin bar reversal pattern on the daily chart, rebounding from the 1.3300 resistance level.

The price of the GBP / USD trading instrument corrected to the line of the 21-day exponential moving average - EMA 21, after which it turned around, giving a buy signal. The pound sterling rose in price amid news of the success of the Brexit negotiations.

Most likely, the correction is over and the pair is ready to continue growing. The immediate upside target is 1.3500, which is in the area of ​​highs since May 2018.

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XAU / USD. December 10.2020 - "Absorption" from the EMA 60 line

At the end of yesterday's trading, the gold / US dollar trading pair formed an engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart based on the 60-day exponential moving average line - EMA 60.

The price of the trading instrument XAU / USD has renewed its maximum since November 23 at around 1874, after which it turned around, giving a signal to sell. We failed to consolidate at the level of 1860 and, most likely, the pair will start a new downward wave.

It makes sense to take a closer look at sales according to the specified candlestick pattern. The closest reference for the decline is at 1800, near the EMA 200 line.

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