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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 03, 2020 – Euro overcomes 1.12 level for the first time since early March

An optimistic atmosphere prevails on global markets, and the euro has reached 1.1200. Demand for risky assets is growing as market participants focused on the prospects for business recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, despite ongoing riots in the United States.

In addition to the general weakening of the US dollar in the Forex market, the impact on the euro is expected by tomorrow's meeting of the ECB, according to which the regulator can increase the program for the purchase of financial assets by 500 billion euros and extend this program after 2020.

Today, you should pay attention to the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector for May and data on the labor market from ADP. Analysts predict an increase in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits after a sudden decrease last week. Moreover, a new record value is predicted - 26,690 thousand. These data can put further pressure on the exchange rate of the American currency.
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KostiaForexMart
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  • Joined: 22/03/2019
GBP/USD. June 04, 2020 – Sterling rises from 1.25

In the morning hours, the British currency continued to recede paired with the dollar, but the «bears» failed to overcome the level of 1.25. The current quotation of the pair GBP/USD is 1.2535. The pressure on sterling was exerted by statements by the Bank of England that it was necessary to be ready for Brexit without a trade transaction in transition. The regulator intends to prepare the financial system in the country for probable risks and economic stresses.

Yesterday, the UK released data on business activity in the service sector: the indicator unexpectedly rose from 13.4 to 29.0 points. However, these data did not support the British pound.

The US dollar, on the contrary, strengthened after the release of data on the labor market from ADP: the number of people employed in the country fell by only 2.7 million people, while experts forecast that this figure would fall by 9 million people.

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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. 05.06. Euro keeps growing momentum

The euro strengthened at the end of the week, reaching 1.1390. However, in the morning hours, the pair shows a decline to the level of 1.13 as part of the correction. Yesterday, the European Central Bank announced that it intends to support the economy in all available ways, including increasing the volume of the PEPP program by 600 billion euros per month (about $ 1.35 trillion). The program was extended until June 2021.

The regulator also noted the risk of lowering core inflation in 2020 to 0.9%, which is too little for the European region. Therefore, stimulating the economy can last not only until the summer of next year.

Today, you should pay attention to statistics on the US labor market. The unemployment rate, at a record high of 14.7%, could rise to even more frightening levels – 19.5%. Last month, the number of jobs decreased by 20,500 thousand, now it can decrease by another 4,870 thousand. And this picture looks extremely pessimistic for the American currency.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
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EUR/USD. June 08, 2020 – US dollar gets support from labor market data

EUR/USD is falling at the beginning of a new trading week. The current quote of the instrument is 1.1275. The US dollar was supported by data on the US labor market: the unemployment rate in the country in May was 13.3% compared to 14.7% in April. These statistics turned out to be much better than the forecast suggesting an increase in the indicator to the level of 19.8%.

The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased during the reporting period by 2.5 million, the forecast assumed a decline of 8 million. The data for April were simultaneously revised to deteriorate to -20.687 million from -20.537 million. The average hourly wage in May fell by 1% m/m, which turned out to be worse than the forecast suggesting growth by the same amount.

Today is calm in terms of the release of important macroeconomic statistics. Of interest will only be the speech of the ECB President Christine Lagarde.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
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Brent. June 09, 2020 – Oil declines due to several factors

Oil quotes show a decrease from yesterday's highs above the level of $43 to $40 per barrel. The oil market is weakening, despite the extension of the OPEC+ deal until the end of July and the decision to increase production cuts by countries that have not fully fulfilled their obligations in the past months (Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan). Analysts suggest that the pressure on oil prices was caused by doubts of market participants about the success of the new deal.

An additional negative impact on Brent quotes was made by statements by the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia that the Persian Gulf countries, which intended to reduce production by another 1.18 million barrels per day, no longer plan to extend this reduction after June.

Moreover, Mexico refused to reduce production in its country and, on the contrary, intends to resume production after five months of downtime due to the civil war in the country.

The current Brent quote is $40.11 per barrel. Analysts note that price reductions will continue in the near future, as the news on the extension of the OPEC+ deal has already been fully taken into account in quotes.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
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GBP/USD. June 10, 2020 – Sterling approaches 1.28

The British currency continues to grow, approaching the level of 1.2800. Sterling was supported by data from BRC, according to which retail sales in May increased by 7.9% year on year against 5.7% a month earlier.

Additional support for the British currency was provided by high demand for risky assets. Investors are increasing long positions in the stock markets, commodity market and the market for high-yield currencies, as the yield on US government bonds is below 1%.

Tonight you should pay attention to the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is likely to confirm its intention to maintain low interest rates for a long period of time. And for risky assets, this will be another good signal.

Thus, the British currency will continue to grow to an area above 1.28. The RSI indicator rushed up, which confirms this scenario.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 1445
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EUR/USD. June 11, 2020 – Euro weakly declining from 1.14

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating at 1.14. The dollar was supported by the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve, according to which the regulator kept the rate in the target range of 0-0.25% per annum and gave fairly clear signals about maintaining full-scale stimulation for as long as required.

At the same time, the Fed shared forecasts for US GDP: experts expect a contraction of the economy by 6.5% this year, and the unemployment rate may reach 9.3%, rather than 3.5%, as previously expected. However, these data did not exert any visible pressure on the exchange rate of the American currency.

Today, you should pay attention to the producer price index in the US for May and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Experts predict a gradual decrease in the number of calls – both primary and repeated. If these forecasts are confirmed, then it will be possible to speak not about improving the situation, but at least about the beginning of stabilization in the American labor market. And this can provide significant support to the dollar.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 15, 2020 – Euro moves away from highs

The euro remains under pressure after falling to 1.12 at the end of last week. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1240. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, the main events of the United States and the eurozone will be held later this week.

Today, attention should be paid only to inflation data in Italy: consumer prices in the country in May fell by 0.2% after a zero change in April. This suggests that the third eurozone economy has already faced deflation, which could push the ECB to further soften the parameters of its monetary policy.

The dollar was supported by data on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan: the index rose in June to 78.9 points against the May mark of 72.3. The restoration of the indicator signals that the «bottom» of consumer sentiment has already been passed. However, fears of the second wave of the US epidemic continue to be a risk factor for the US currency.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 16, 2020 – Dollar resumes its growth

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair appreciably strengthened, reaching the level of 1.1350. However, on Tuesday, the euro began to decline to 1.1300. Before the US dollar was under pressure amid a fall in the levels of ten-year government bond yields and a general improvement in investor risk appetite.

However, the decline was replaced by strengthening after the publication of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of New York in June: the index was -0.2 points against the May value of -48.5. This means that business and production are gradually returning to life.

Today you should pay attention to the statistics block from Europe. Germany and the eurozone will present reports on the business sentiment index from ZEW in June, experts predict a noticeable improvement in both cases. The day will end, most likely, with a weakening dollar after the publication of the report on retail sales: the rate of decline should accelerate from -21.6% to -32.6%.
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KostiaForexMart
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Fundamental GBP/USD analysis for June 17

Today, the British sterling does not show visible price fluctuations paired with the US dollar, as market participants are still analyzing the released statistics. In particular, the May consumer price index in the country was 0.5% year on year versus the April value of 0.8% y/y. The producer price index in May rose 0.3% mom after a 5.5% decline in April.

Core inflation in the UK was recorded at 1.2% y/y – lower than it was a month earlier, and weaker than expected. At the same time, the retail price index in the country amounted to only 1.0% y/y in May against the April level of 1.5%.

Such dynamics fully corresponds to the conditions when neither business nor consumers are active in the country. Fresh statistics did not reflect either a positive or a clear negative, so the pair GBP/USD will continue to fluctuate near the level of 1.2560 during the day.
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KostiaForexMart
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GBP/USD. June 18, 2020 – Sterling continues to decline in anticipation of the Bank of England meeting

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continues to decline, following the dynamics of yesterday. The current quotation of the pair is 1.2475. The pressure on the sterling was exerted by weak macroeconomic data from the UK: the consumer price index (CPI) in May rose by only 0.5% after rising by 0.8% in April. At the same time, the target level of the Bank of England is at around 2%.

Such a sharp decline in inflation may force the British Central Bank to introduce additional monetary incentives, which will negatively affect the exchange rate of the national currency. Today, a meeting of the Board of the Bank of England will take place, from which market participants expect the interest rate to remain at 0.1% and increase the QE program.

An additional source of pressure on the pound remains uncertainty around Brexit. And if today the regulator decides on a new round of monetary easing, the British currency could fall to the level of 1.2400.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 19, 2020 – The euro is growing slightly from the level of 1.12

Yesterday's trading ended with a decrease in the euro to around 1.1180. The dollar rose in price to its main currency competitors amid sales of the euro and the pound, as well as amid growing investor appetite for defensive assets. The probability of the potential occurrence of the second wave of the coronavirus epidemic puts pressure on the entire spectrum of risky assets.

However, today the EU summit took place, during which the head of the European Parliament, David Sassoli, called on the heads of state to approve a plan for the restoration of the EU economy by €750 billion and a draft next seven-year budget for 2021-2027. At the same time, he recognized the presence of many disagreements on important issues and the need for another summit in the future. Such news provided some support to the European currency, and today we will see a weak growth of the euro from the level of 1.12.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 22, 2020 – Euro fluctuates slightly near the level of 1.12

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the level of 1.12, fluctuating slightly on both sides of it. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, so the dynamics of the instrument will not differ in activity.

At the end of last week, market participants drew attention to the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell, who noted that economic recovery would be long and difficult. These comments put pressure on the dollar, which led to the pair growing to the level of 1.1230.

Today, you should pay attention to data on home sales in the US secondary market. The indicator may show growth of 1.6%, which will provide some support to the US dollar. On Thursday, important statistics on the final estimate of GDP will be released: experts predict confirmation of a preliminary estimate of the economic decline by 5%.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 22, 2020 – Euro fluctuates slightly near the level of 1.12

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the level of 1.12, fluctuating slightly on both sides of it. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, so the dynamics of the instrument will not differ in activity.

At the end of last week, market participants drew attention to the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell, who noted that economic recovery would be long and difficult. These comments put pressure on the dollar, which led to the pair growing to the level of 1.1230.

Today, you should pay attention to data on home sales in the US secondary market. The indicator may show growth of 1.6%, which will provide some support to the US dollar. On Thursday, important statistics on the final estimate of GDP will be released: experts predict confirmation of a preliminary estimate of the economic decline by 5%.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 23, 2020 – Euro could not overcome the level of 1.13

Yesterday, trading on the euro ended with an increase to the level of 1.1300. The reason for the growth of the EUR/USD pair was made by the statements of the White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow. The politician noted that in the USA there is no second wave of coronavirus diseases, which led to an increase in demand for risky assets.

Today, the eurozone countries have submitted their reports on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector. Eurozone PMI rose from 39.4 to 46.9 points, better than forecast. The index of business activity in Germany also showed growth: from 36.6 points to 44.6, which was higher than analysts' forecasts either. Such figures provided strong support for the European currency.

In the afternoon, the US will publish business activity indexes in the manufacturing sector and services for June. Experts forecast growth from 39.8 to 48.0 points. You should also pay attention to data on new home sales in the USA for May: the forecast assumes an increase from 623 thousand to 640 thousand.

The RSI indicator pushed off the resistance level and turned towards the neutral zone. This signals that the euro is limited by the level of 1.13, and during the day we can expect a corrective decline in the pair to the level of 1.1270.
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KostiaForexMart
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Brent. June 25, 2020 – Oil declines amid expectations of the second wave of coronavirus in the world

On Thursday, Brent quotes continued to be under pressure, fluctuating slightly at $40 per barrel. Concerns about a new outbreak of the coronavirus infection pandemic have a negative effect on the asset. WHO has announced a significant increase in the number of new diseases in the United States, China and Latin America. As a result, concerns about the slowdown in global economic recovery and lower demand for hydrocarbons returned to the market.

An additional factor in lowering oil prices was also data on changes in US oil reserves. Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a 1.4 million barrels increase in raw material inventories in a week, while experts forecast a decrease of 100 thousand barrels. Stock growth has been observed for the third week in a row.

Today, attention should be paid to data on US GDP and durable goods orders. If statistics support the US dollar, oil will have another factor for further decline.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 26, 2020 – Euro is under pressure near the level of 1.12

The European currency continues to remain under pressure paired with the dollar amid growing demand for safe assets. Investors fear the second wave of Covid-19, as more and more new cases of coronavirus infection are recorded in the world. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1225.

Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by reports that the White House administration is considering options to introduce new and increase existing tariffs on imports of products from the European Union and the UK worth $7.5 billion.

At the same time, the US dollar received support from data on the volume of orders for durable goods: the indicator in May showed an increase of 15.8% m/m after a month earlier decline of 17.7% m/m. Today, you should pay attention to the publication of statistics on personal income and expenses of Americans for May.
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KostiaForexMart
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GBP/USD. June 29, 2020 – Sterling down to 1.23

The British sterling continues to decline at the beginning of a new trading week. The current quotation of the pair is 1.2300. Last Friday, the United States presented macroeconomic data that signaled in favor of further strengthening of the US currency. In particular, personal expenses of US citizens in May grew by 8.2% mom after a decrease of 12.6% mom in April. Analysts expected an increase of 8% m/m. Revenues, on the other hand, decreased by 4.2% m/m after rising by 10.8% m/m in April. Investors expected a decrease of 6% m/m.

In addition to statistics, the dollar was supported by reports from the Fed that the regulator suspended cash injections into financial markets and launched the reverse process. Thus, the balance of the Federal Reserve for the week decreased by $ 75.5 billion, and a week earlier – by $ 28 billion.

At the same time, pressure on the sterling continues to exert uncertainty on Brexit. Last week, Britain’s chief negotiator, David Frost, accused the EU of creating a deadlock in the negotiations. And EU negotiator Michel Barnier expects a breakthrough in resolving the issue only in October. Negotiations on Brexit will start today, however, the participants are skeptical in advance about its effectiveness. Thus, a further decline in the pound to the level of 1.23 seems quite probable.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. June 30, 2020 – Euro consolidated at 1.12

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continues to decline, breaking the level of 1.12. The euro was pressured by weak macroeconomic data from the eurozone: the consumer and business confidence index in June recovered from 67.5 to 75.7 points, which was worse than analysts' forecasts, expecting the indicator to rise to 80 points.

In the United States, on the contrary, economic statistics provided substantial support to the US dollar: pending sales in the secondary housing market in May rose to 44.3% m/m compared to a decline of 21.8% in April.

Today, the eurozone has presented preliminary data on the consumer price index for June: annual inflation accelerated from the May level of 0.1% to 0.3%. According to preliminary estimates, core annual inflation this June was 0.8%.

In the evening hours, attention should be paid to the speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve, J. Powell, which will help market participants understand the regulator's further actions to stimulate the US economy.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. July 02, 2020 – Euro rose to the level of 1.1300, but failed to overcome it

The pair EUR/USD yesterday managed to grow to the level of 1.13, however today the quotes turned down to the level of 1.1275. Pressure on the euro was exerted by statements by German Chancellor Angela Merkel that EU members are far from an agreement on a restoration fund and budget. An additional negative brought data on the producer price index in the eurozone for May, reflecting an insufficient recovery of the indicator (-0.6% against the forecast -0.5%).

Yesterday, the USA presented data on the labor market from ADP: in June, the number of jobs increased by 2.369 million, which significantly exceeds the «failure» in May by 3.065 million. The forecast assumed a recovery of the indicator by 2.850 million. Today we should pay attention to unemployment statistics and the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector in June. The dollar is likely to receive significant support after publication.

However, one should also take into account the fact that a certain appetite for risky assets has returned to the market, so the euro will feel confident during the day. Moreover, unemployment data in the eurozone turned out to be better than expected (7.4% against the forecast of 7.7%), which will also support the European currency.
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KostiaForexMart
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Brent. July 03, 2020 – Potential for rising oil prices is almost exhausted

Oil prices on Friday continue to trade above $42 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $42.60. Support for the asset this week was provided by data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country, reflecting a decrease in reserves of 8.1 million and 7.1 million barrels, respectively.

However, despite a local recovery, Brent quotes may go down already in the near future amid a general deterioration in market sentiment due to the aggravation of the epidemiological situation in the world, which poses a threat to global hydrocarbon consumption.

Additional pressure may come from comments by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak that he hopes to achieve a balance or deficit in the global oil market in July. Market participants saw in these comments a hint of Russia's unwillingness to participate in the further extension of the OPEC ++ energy deal. Thus, in the short term, oil prices may begin to decline to the area of ​​$42 per barrel or lower.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. July 06, 2020 – The euro strengthened to 1.13, but failed to gain a foothold above this level

At the beginning of the new trading week, the European currency showed strengthening to the level of 1.13, but could not rise higher. The euro was supported by signs of economic recovery in Germany, as well as hopes for additional incentives in the near future.

In particular, the volume of production orders in Germany grew in May by 10.4% after quarantine restrictions were relaxed in the country. Since this country is Europe's strongest economy, its restoration gives hope to other European countries.

In addition, market participants are waiting for a decision to create a restoration fund in Europe. On Thursday, a meeting of EU finance ministers will take place, and on July 17-18, a summit of regional leaders is planned.

Today is not rich in publishing important macroeconomic data. One should pay attention only to business activity indices in the construction sector throughout Europe: all indicators showed growth. Additional support for the euro today was provided by data on retail sales in the eurozone in May. Sales in the region grew by 17.8% compared with April -12.1%.
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KostiaForexMart
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GBP/USD. July 07, 2020 – Sterling is trying to gain a foothold above the level of 1.25

The British currency continues to stay in the area of ​​local maximums – above 1.25. The GBP/USD pair is under the influence of multidirectional news, which does not allow sterling to decide on the movement vector.

On the one hand, the pound received support from data on business activity in the country's construction sector: the indicator unexpectedly rose to 55.3 points against 28.9 points a month earlier. Experts predicted growth to 47 points.

At the same time, the currency is under pressure amid growing tensions between the UK and China. In June, Britain announced its readiness to offer citizenship to nearly 3 million Hong Kong residents whose civil liberties are threatened by a new national security law. The British authorities also thought about introducing a ban on the participation of the Chinese company Huawei in the deployment of fifth-generation networks (5G). China also promised to take action in response.

Thus, the UK may be drawn into a trade war with China, which will inevitably lead to a deterioration in the country's economic condition, already undermined by the protracted negotiations on Brexit.
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KostiaForexMart
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Brent fundamental analysis for July 8th

Brent crude oil continues to trade above $43 a barrel. Market participants are waiting for data on US crude oil inventories from the US Department of Energy. Also, the absence of a certain dynamics of quotes is explained by the reluctance of traders to take risks amid the deteriorating epidemiological situation in the world.

The number of new Covid-19 diseases in the USA continues to grow, exceeding 50 thousand per day. Experts note that concerns about the second wave of the epidemic could provoke the reintroduction of restrictive measures, which will slow down the global economic recovery and again reduce the demand for hydrocarbons.

Moreover, the economic crisis in China casts doubt on the ability of the Celestial Empire to fulfill its obligations under a trade deal with the United States. According to the latest data, oil exports from the US to China in May amounted to only $2 billion. If relations between countries continue to deteriorate, the risk of a new round of trade war will be another threat to global economic growth.

Today, attention should be paid to data on stocks, as well as oil production in the United States. Analysts forecast a 3.1-million-barrel reduction in stocks. If recent data show growth, Brent quotes will return to the level of $43 per barrel.
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KostiaForexMart
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GBP/USD. July 09, 2020 – The sterling rushed to the level of 1.27

The British currency continues to grow steadily on Thursday, approaching 1.27. The growth is primarily due to the weakening US dollar amid growing demand for risky assets. At the same time, the sterling itself received support after the British government announced its latest economic recovery plan after the pandemic in the amount of 30 billion pounds ($38 billion).

The plan includes a reduction in taxes on the purchase of housing, discounts in restaurants for all citizens, as well as a cash bonus for employers who do not fire their employees.

At the same time, the growth potential of the sterling is limited, since the main driver of the growth of the British currency today are the trade negotiations between the European Union and the UK, and they still look rather uncertain.

Thus, the growth of the GBP/USD pair may be limited by the level of 1.27. The RSI indicator is growing slightly from the neutral zone, which confirms this scenario.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. July 10, 2020 – The dollar is strengthening after the release of labor market data

The pair EUR/USD on Friday shows a recovery to the level of 1.13 after falling to 1.1250. Yesterday, it became known that the US Supreme Court allowed the New York attorney to receive D. Trump's financial statements, which poses certain risks for him on the eve of the presidential election.

Market participants also drew attention to the growing number of cases of new coronavirus diseases in the United States. In some states, the country reintroduces quarantine restrictions.

Yesterday, the States presented data on the labor market: the number of claims for unemployment benefits for the week amounted to 1.314 million, a decrease of 99 thousand, better than the forecast. Today, attention should be paid to data on producer prices, the decline rate of which should slow down from -0.8% to -0.6%. If the forecasts are confirmed, the US currency will be able to complete the week on a major note.
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KostiaForexMart
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Brent. July 20, 2020 – Oil is moderately reduced

At the beginning of the week, Brent crude oil shows a moderate decline to $42.76 per barrel. The asset is under pressure from the OPEC+ decision to increase oil production, as well as an increase in the number of new cases of Covid-19 infection in the world. According to Johns Hopkins University, the total number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in the world has exceeded 13.6 million.

Last week, OPEC+ countries agreed to cut their supply caps in August from 9.7 million barrels to 7.7 million barrels per day. At the same time, countries that did not fulfill their obligations in May and June, on the contrary, will have to cut production in August even more.

The dynamics of Brent are also affected by the likelihood that in August, the growth of oil supply will provide American oil producers. According to a report from Baker Hughes, the total number of oil rigs in the US last week decreased by only 1 unit, from 181 to 180. It is quite possible that only an increase in the number of installations will follow, and this will be an extremely negative factor for Brent quotes.

EUR/USD. July 20, 2020 – Euro growth was suspended at 1.1460

The euro suspended its growth at 1.1465. Earlier, the currency was supported by the continuing interest in risky assets and the expectations of the results of negotiations of the EU leaders on the formation of a fund for the recovery of the European economy in the amount of $750 billion. Market participants are sure that politicians will be able to reach an agreement one way or another, but so far they have not succeeded.

Today trades promise to be calm, because the macroeconomic calendar is almost empty. On Thursday, you should pay attention to the data on the consumer confidence index: the indicator in July could improve to -12 points from the June value of -15.

On Friday, the block of preliminary statistics on the index of business activity in the service sector of the euro zone and individual EU countries for July will be of interest. Experts predict that indicators have improved in all regions.

The dynamics of the pair today will mainly depend on the final results of the meeting of the European leaders. If the agreement does not succeed, the pair will begin to decline to the 1.1400 area.
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KostiaForexMart
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Brent. July 21, 2020 – Oil updates local highs

Brent oil closed yesterday with growth to $43.20. Today, oil bulls continue their northern campaign, approaching $ 44.60 a barrel. The prices were supported by news of the end of the EU summit: the leaders of the EU countries have finally reached an agreement on an aid package for the countries most affected by the coronavirus in the amount of 750 billion euros.

Earlier, the pressure on oil prices was exerted by the decision of the OPEC+ countries to increase oil production from August 1, bringing the overall reduction under the energy pact to 7.7 million. In July, the volume of reduction was 9.7 million barrels per day.

Tonight and tomorrow, you should pay attention to the data on US crude oil inventories. If reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Department of Energy reflect an increase in inventories, Brent quotes may come under pressure again.

EUR/USD. July 21, 2020 – EU summit is over, euro is up

The EUR/USD pair is trading in no specific direction on either side of the 1.1440 level. The EU summit ended tonight, following which the leaders of the EU countries agreed on the creation of a fund for the restoration of European economies in the amount of 750 billion euros.

The parties found a compromise on the issue of the donor countries' capabilities and the needs of the recipient countries. In particular, the fund's subsidies will amount to 390 billion euros, and loans – 360 billion euros, which should balance the risks. About 70% of the fund must be exhausted and used for its intended purpose during 2021-2022, and another 30% in 2023. The total debt should be repaid by the end of 2058.

The fact that agreements have been reached after the five-day summit already provides support for the European currency, so further growth of the euro with a target of 1.15 is quite likely.
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GBP/USD. July 22, 2020 – Sterling weakly corrected after morning dip

On Tuesday, the British pound sterling managed to renew its high since mid-June, hitting 1.2770. However, during Wednesday morning trading, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2640.

The growth of the sterling yesterday was promoted by the general market optimism, the reason for which was the agreement of the European fund to help the countries affected by the pandemic in the amount of 750 billion euros. In addition, the EU countries have also approved a multi-year EU budget of more than 1 trillion euros.

Today pressure on the British currency was exerted by information that the UK and the EU are unlikely to have time to agree on a trade agreement before the end of the summer. This means that negotiations may drag on until the end of the year, which casts doubt on the possibility of a soft Brexit. In this case, the UK will have to leave the European Union with the loss of access to the single European and customs markets.

Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, the pair will grow weakly from the level of 1.2640. On Friday, the situation may change after the release of data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector. Market participants are waiting for weak statistics, and if the forecasts are confirmed, the pound will begin to decline to the area of ​​1.26.

EUR/USD. July 22, 2020 – Euro has reached 1.1550

Yesterday, the European currency managed to renew its high since the beginning of 2019 at 1.1550. The euro was supported by the results of the EU summit, at which it was decided to create a fund for the recovery of the European economy in the amount of 750 billion euros: 360 billion euros will be loans and 390 billion euros – subsidies. Experts note that the approval of a common fund in times of crisis is a signal of political stability in the eurozone.

Moreover, the President of the European Council Charles Michel announced the harmonization of the EU budget for 2021-2027 in the amount of 1.074 trillion euros.

Analysts predict further growth in the European currency, as the widespread spread of the coronavirus in the world, ongoing tensions between the US and China and the upcoming US elections could severely limit the appetite for high-yielding assets in the near future.
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GBP/USD. July 23, 2020 – Sterling falls after the release of weak economic statistics

On Thursday, the British currency came under pressure after the release of macroeconomic statistics from the UK. In particular, the index of industrial orders in July showed an increase to -46 points from -58 points a month earlier. However, the latest data turned out to be worse than forecasted, as analysts had expected the indicator to rise to -38 points. Moreover, household incomes have fallen by 4.5% since the onset of the crisis, and sharply increased unemployment remains the country's key economic problem.

At the same time, the US dollar is also under pressure following statements by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin about the likelihood of new measures to stimulate the country's economy, despite the huge budget deficit.

The growth of the pound sterling is also limited due to the uncertainty in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union. The current round of talks will end this week, and no new meetings are expected yet. At the same time, there is no visible result in the debate yet, which increases the risks of a lack of a trade agreement and, as a result, a fall in the British currency.

The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.2690. The RSI indicator declines towards the neutral zone, which signals in favor of further weakening of the pound sterling.

EUR/USD. July 23, 2020 – Euro retains potential for further growth

The euro continues to trade in the area of ​​yesterday's highs near the level of 1.1600. The European currency managed to renew the maximum from October 16, 2018 after the leaders of the EU countries agreed on the creation of a global fund for the recovery of the European economy in the amount of 750 billion.

Amid such a powerful factor supporting the European currency, the deterioration in relations between the United States and China fades into the background. However, many experts are sure that this is «for the time being». Earlier it became known that the US intends to close the Chinese consulate in Houston, to which China also promised to take retaliatory measures.

Today you should pay attention to the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Experts expect an increase in the number of applications from 1,300 to 1,360 for the first time in last weeks. If forecasts are confirmed, the dollar will receive additional impetus to weaken. Also of interest will be the data on the consumer confidence index in the euro zone for July, where the indicator may improve to -12 points from -15 earlier.
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EUR/USD. July 24, 2020 – Euro declines from highs within correction

The pair ends the week near the 1.1600 level. The euro hit a new high at 1.1625 yesterday. Today, the European currency is supported by the PMI business activity indices in France and Germany, published in the morning: the indicators were better than the market forecasts (57.8 points and 50.0 points, respectively).

The euro remains the leader in the foreign exchange market amid high demand for the currency after the leaders of the European Union have agreed on a global stimulus package for the economy. In contrast, the United States has recently faced difficulties in adopting a new stimulus program, as well as in containing the further spread of Covid-19. In addition, the United States continues to wage a trade war with China, which also puts pressure on the greenback.

However, on the H4 chart, we see that the RSI indicator reversed and headed down towards the neutral zone. The forecast for today assumes a decline in the pair within the correction to the 1.1560 area.
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EUR/USD. July 27, 2020 – The dollar is weak for many reasons

The US dollar continues to weaken against all major currencies at the start of the new trading week. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1700. This week, market participants are likely to continue selling dollars, and there are several reasons for this.

First, the American Benefit Co-Pay program expires on Monday. Over the course of several months, more than 20 million US citizens received weekly co-payments of $ 600. Now, after the completion of the program, many enterprises and households will fully feel the negative consequences of the lack of financial assistance from the authorities.

Second, the US economy has already slowed significantly, which will be confirmed by the US Q2 GDP report on Thursday. Experts predict a 35.0% decline in the American economy.

Finally, the position of the US Federal Reserve System also does not give the dollar any incentives to strengthen. Against the background of the fact that the economic prospects are disappointing, the deadline for payments to citizens has expired, and the packages of new assistance measures may turn out to be ineffective, the regulator can only continue to adhere to the «dovish» position in its monetary policy.

Coupled with a further increase in the number of Covid-19 diseases in the United States, the above factors will only have a negative impact on the dollar exchange rate.

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EUR/USD. July 28, 2020 – Euro finishes rally

The euro suspended its strong growth and stabilized in the area of ​​the reached highs near 1.1740. The US dollar is still under strong pressure from several factors: an increase in the number of coronavirus cases in the United States and expectations of the «dovish» rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve at a meeting on Wednesday. The regulator is likely to keep the rate unchanged around zero, as well as comment on inflation parameters.

However, having received local support from data on the number of orders for durable goods in the US, the dollar managed to recover somewhat. June orders rose 7.3% month-on-month, higher than the 7.0% growth forecast.

Today the EUR/USD pair will continue to fluctuate slightly above 1.17 in anticipation of tomorrow's results of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

Brent. July 28, 2020 – Oil rises thanks to dollar weakness

Yesterday’s day ended for Brent oil with a decline to $43 per barrel, but today quotes managed to recover to $44.25. The prices were supported by the weakening of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the Forex market due to continuing concerns about the outlook for the US economy.

However, it should be noted that oil is growing despite a number of negative factors. First, the oil market is monitoring further plans by OPEC and Russia to increase oil production by 2 million barrels from August. Such measures are incorporated in the gradual removal of additional production restrictions imposed by the pandemic.

In addition, investors fear a further deterioration in relations between the United States and China and an increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection in the world.

Another factor weakening Brent may be statistics from Baker Hughes, according to which the number of oil rigs in the US last week increased for the first time since March 13, by 1 unit.

Thus, as soon as the US dollar manages to show the first signs of recovery, oil «bulls» risk losing all their positions.
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Brent. July 29, 2020 – Oil rises after the publication of the report from the API

During the trading session on Wednesday, Brent crude rose to $44.20 per barrel. Prices were supported by yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which crude oil reserves in the country fell by 6.8 million barrels per week. Analysts had forecast a reduction of only 1.2 million barrels.

Today you should pay attention to a similar report from the US Department of Energy. If the new data also reflects the decline in inventories, Brent quotes will be able to reach a maximum of $45 per barrel.

At the same time, the softening of the terms of the OPEC+ deal to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day starting from August may act as a pressure factor in the near future. Analysts have calculated that the softening of the OPEC+ deal will lead to an oversupply over the next four months.

EUR/USD. July 29, 2020 – The pair is sideways in anticipation of the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting

Today is extremely important for the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, since the US Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the rate and share its plans for further monetary policy.

In addition, market participants are waiting for the regulator's assessment of the prospects for the recovery of the American economy. Earlier in June, the FOMC released its quarterly reports, according to which a progressive economic recovery could be expected. However, after that, the States were swept by the second wave of the coronavirus, which led to another tightening of quarantine restrictions and a decrease in business and production activity.

Additional pressure on the US dollar is exerted by the expectations of tomorrow's GDP report. Experts predict a significant decline in the economy in the second quarter, up to 35%.

At the same time, the markets are following the discussion in Congress of new measures to support the US economy in the amount of $1 trillion. It is expected that a new aid package will be adopted this week.

The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1745. The euro is clearly overbought, and it is logical to observe a downward correction. During the day, trading will be held in a calm manner, pending the results of the Fed meeting.
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EUR/USD. July 30, 2020 – US dollar strengthens moderately after the Fed meeting

Over the past week, the US dollar has been actively selling and reached lows in the 1.1800 area. Yesterday ended a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, the results of which did not manage to significantly change the situation on the market – the pair EUR/USD fell only to the level of 1.1730.

The regulator noted that there are serious risks from the pandemic, and the Central Bank is ready to use its entire arsenal of tools to support the economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also said during a press conference that household spending has rebounded by about 50%, but manufacturing capital investment cannot boast a similar trend.

Moreover, rising inflation, the end of the unemployment benefit program and the second wave of coronavirus in the United States – all these factors prevent optimism from emerging in the market.

Today you should pay attention to the publication of the report on US GDP. Experts predict the worst release in the entire history of data collection: the fall of the US economy by 35%. At the same time, the European currency feels quite comfortable: the macro statistics for the eurozone continues to improve, and at the moment the forecast for GDP for the third quarter suggests an increase in the indicator.
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EUR/USD. July 31, 2020 – Euro has updated its maximum at around 1.1900

The euro continues to rally, reaching 1.1900. The US dollar again came under pressure from several factors at once: from the fresh macroeconomic data and statements by US President Donald Trump.

So, yesterday's data on US GDP showed a decline in the US economy in the II quarter by 32.9%. This was the largest decline since the Great Depression. Experts note that without the $3 trillion stimulus package, the GDP failure would have been even greater, but the current figures are impressive.

Additional pressure on the currency was exerted by the words of D. Trump, who does not exclude the postponement of the upcoming presidential elections in November due to low GDP and economic problems. Moreover, the lack of progress in talks between Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress on a new $1 trillion package of measures also does not give the US dollar optimism.

Today we should pay attention to the data on inflation for July in the eurozone and changes in the volume of GDP for the II quarter. Inflation in the region rose 0.4% on an annualized basis, while GDP fell by a record 12.1%. Such news somewhat dampened the appetite for the euro, which allowed the EUR/USD pair to fall to 1.1850.
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GBP/USD. August 3, 2020 – Sterling started to decline from highs

Monday starts with a moderate weakening of the pound sterling after rising to the level of 1.3100. The current quote for the GBP/USD pair is 1.3000. Rally of the British currency lasted 11 days in a row; experts note that such a growth of the pound has not been observed for a whole decade.

Today, the sterling was under pressure from the statistics on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector for July. The indicator rose from 50.1 points to 53.3 points. However, the latest data turned out to be worse than the forecast for growth to the level of 53.6 points, which had a negative impact on the exchange rate.

Additional negativity comes from the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. Negotiations between the UK and the EU are failing, and the likelihood that the country will leave the EU without a full-fledged trade agreement is growing every day.

A meeting of the Board of the Bank of England will take place on Thursday. Market participants expect that all parameters of the regulator's monetary policy will remain unchanged.
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Brent. August 04, 2020 – Oil awaiting data from API

Yesterday ended with the growth of Brent quotes to $44.40 per barrel. Market participants are optimistic about the further recovery of demand after the release of fairly good reports on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone and the United States.

Further support for oil prices is provided by a decrease in the number of new cases of coronavirus infection in the United States, which also indicates a further recovery in demand.

However, on Tuesday Brent quotes began to decline to $ 43.40 per barrel. The asset is still under pressure from the increase in oil production by the OPEC+ countries and Russia. More and more countries are gradually phasing out the previously set production quotas as part of the OPEC deal.

Today and tomorrow you should pay attention to the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country. In case of another decline in reserves, Brent quotes may test the resistance of $45 per barrel.
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GBP/USD. August 05, 2020 – Sterling continues to rise from 1.31

The British currency continues to grow in tandem with the dollar, reaching 1.3130. Today the UK released the final data on business activity in the service sector for July: the index was 56.5 points, which was slightly worse than analysts' expectations (56.6 points). The last month's figure was noted at the level of 47.1.

The key event for the pound sterling will be the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday. No major changes in monetary policy are expected (the rate will remain at the level of 0.10% per annum), but the regulator is likely to share its plans to maintain a «balance» in finance and economy.

It should be noted that the British currency has plenty of risks for the second half of the year. Here are the low rates of GDP recovery, and the weakness of the employment market, and the possibility of a second wave of coronavirus. Moreover, the failure of the Brexit negotiations continues to put strong permanent pressure on the pound. Thus, the current growth of the currency is seen to be short-lived.
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Brent. August 06, 2020 – Oil drops slightly after updating March highs

Yesterday Brent quotes rose to $46.16 per barrel on the back of a favorable general market environment and further weakening of the US dollar. However, on Thursday, the asset fell slightly – to $45.

The prices were supported by reports from the API and the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country: indicators showed a reduction in reserves by 8.5 million and 7.37 million, respectively. At the same time, the loading of refineries in the United States increased by only 0.1%, and oil product inventories, contrary to forecasts, grew. Gasoline stocks increased by 419 thousand barrels, distillates – by 1.592 million barrels. Oil reserves at the Cushing terminal increased by 532 thousand barrels.

The depreciation of the US dollar in recent days also contributes to the rise in oil prices. Since oil futures are priced in dollars, prices usually rise during such periods, which compensates for the weakening of the US currency.

GBP/USD. August 06, 2020 – What to expect from the Bank of England meeting?

GBP/USD is approaching the 1.3200 level, the high of early March. The sterling is supported by investors' expectations of today's meeting of the Bank of England. The regulator is to make a statement on monetary policy, as well as submit a quarterly report on inflation in the UK.

The central bank is not expected to change its monetary policy as macroeconomic indicators continue to show an improvement in the UK economy. Moreover, the situation with the spread of Covid-19 in the country remains under control.

However, in June, the position of the Bank of England turned out to be more «hawkish» than market participants had expected. If at today's meeting the atmosphere is saturated with pessimism and the regulator lowers economic forecasts, the pound sterling will inevitably go down to the 1.30 area. Additional pressure on the currency will come from the revised downward indicators of business activity in the services sector (56.5 points) and the composite PMI index (57.0).
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EUR/USD. August 07, 2020 – The pair consolidates at 1.18 in anticipation of data on the US labor market

At the end of the week, the euro depreciates moderately, reaching the level of 1.1800. The EUR/USD pair has entered the overbought zone, which may trigger profit taking before the weekend, as well as cause a corrective decline.

The US dollar received some support from the data on applications for unemployment benefits, the number of which fell to 1.19 million. This figure was below the forecast of decline to 1.4 million applications. Fewer Americans are applying for benefits, even as the Unemployment Benefit Enhanced Program expired at the end of July. This suggests that the situation in the US labor market is gradually improving.

Today you should pay attention to the key release of the employment market in the United States for July. Forecasts are quite optimistic: the unemployment rate should fall from 11.1% to 10.5%. Moreover, outside agriculture, 2,200 new jobs can be created.

So, in anticipation of these data, the pair is consolidating at the level of 1.18. Further dynamics of the pair will fully depend on American statistics.
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GBP/USD. August 10, 2020 – The sterling fell to 1.30

The British pound continues to decline against the US dollar at the start of a new trading week. The American currency was supported by strong data on the labor market, published last Friday.

At the same time, the pressure on the sterling itself increased after the announcement of the results of the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday. The regulator kept the base interest rate at a record low level of 0.1% and left unchanged the parameters for purchasing government and corporate bonds. At the same time, the unemployment forecast suggested an increase in the indicator to 7.5% in 2020 and a gradual decline in 2021. The central bank also does not expect the country's GDP to grow to pre-crisis levels, at least until the end of 2021.

The unsuccessful negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal also add to the negative effect on the British currency. Senior negotiators from the EU and the UK have repeatedly noted the lack of progress.

Thus, the GBP/USD pair reached the 1.3000 level. The RSI indicator is directed downward, which signals further weakening of the pound sterling.

EUR/USD. August 10, 2020 – Dollar is growing, playing back positive statistics on the labor market

At the beginning of the new trading week, the US dollar continues to moderately strengthen, approaching 1.1740. The currency was supported by a block of statistics on the labor market, published on Friday. The unemployment rate improved in July and amounted to 10.2% against the previous figure of 11.1%. The forecast assumed a mark of 10.5%.

The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 1.763 million against the forecast of growth of 1.530 million. Average hourly wages in the United States increased by 0.2% m / m, which is well above forecasts. Tonight, attention should be paid to the number of job openings in the US labor market.

The dollar also acted as a defensive asset after Donald Trump signed an executive order banning the use of two popular Chinese applications WeChat and Tiktok. The ban will take effect next month.

Today the trading day will be calm. The dollar will continue to rise slightly towards the 1.1700 area.
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EUR/USD. August 11, 2020 – Euro grows on positive data from Germany

The euro is showing signs of recovery on Tuesday, hitting the 1.1800 level. The single European currency was supported by the data from the ZEW Institute on the index of economic sentiment in Germany: the indicator in August amounted to 71.5 points, which turned out to be significantly higher than forecasts and the previous value of 59.3 points. Experts had expected the indicator to decline to 58.0.

At the same time, pressure on the dollar exchange rate is exerted by the expectation of actions by the US financial authorities: the Ministry of Finance will today redeem bonds in the amount of $10 billion, and the Fed will buy back bonds in the open market in the amount of $2.42 billion. Thus, $12.42 billion will be injected into the US financial system , which will have a negative impact on the dollar.

Tonight you should pay attention to the data on producer prices in the US. Their decline should slow down from -0.8% to -0.7%. On a monthly basis, prices may rise by 0.3%. Given the fact that this is a leading indicator for inflation, it can be concluded that inflation in the United States is unlikely to decline in the near future. And this is definitely a positive factor for the American currency.
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EUR/USD. August 12, 2020 – Euro is growing moderately towards the 1.18 area

The euro continues to moderately strengthen against the dollar after the publication of positive macroeconomic data from Germany. The index of investor confidence in the country's economy jumped in August to 71.5 points from 59.3 points in July. Experts predicted a decrease in the indicator to 58 points.

At the same time, the US dollar also received some support after the publication of the PPI indicator. Producer price index rose 0.6% month-on-month in July, better than forecasted 0.3%. This was the highest growth rate since October 2018.

Today you should pay attention to the data on inflation in the United States. And since the PPI is a leading indicator of inflation, it can be assumed that the consumer price index is growing. Experts predict an increase in the indicator from 0.6% to 0.7%. This is definitely a positive factor for the American currency.

The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1770. During the day, we continue to follow the news publications.
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Brent. August 13, 2020 – Oil returned to growth after the report on US oil inventories

Oil quotes again started to rise to$ 45.50 per barrel. The prices were supported by the data on oil reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. According to the latest figures, stocks of raw materials in the reporting week fell by 4.5 million barrels, to 514.1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a reduction of 2 million barrels.

At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 722 thousand barrels, to 247.1 million barrels, while experts expected a decline of 800 thousand barrels. The report also showed that oil production in the United States over the past week fell by 300 thousand barrels per day, to 10.7 million barrels per day.

In addition, the growth in Brent quotes is due to expectations of a further recovery in demand for hydrocarbons after the quarantine restrictions. Many also believe that fuel demand will increase in the fall.

However, the risks of weakening Brent still remain: growing tensions between the US and China continue to put pressure on the oil market. The next round of negotiations will begin this coming Saturday, while oil prices may test the resistance of $46 per barrel.
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EUR/USD. August 14, 2020 – Euro weakens under pressure from weak statistics

The euro is moving almost horizontally above the 1.1800 level. The currency is under some pressure from macroeconomic data: the euro zone's GDP for the II quarter collapsed by 12.1% in quarterly terms and by 9.0% in annual terms. At the same time, experts predicted a 15% decline in annual GDP, so there is some positive for the euro.

The trade balance of the euro area in June amounted to 17.1 billion euros, which was weaker than expected.

Additional pressure on the European currency rate is exerted by the absence of any effects from stimulating the economy, into which a huge amount of financial resources were poured. However, time is passing, and there are no signs of stabilization yet, which leads to sales of the euro.

Tonight you should pay attention to the data on retail sales for July in the United States, as well as statistics on industrial production. Experts predict an acceleration in sales growth from 1.1% to 1.9%, which will support the dollar.
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EUR/USD. August 17, 2020 – Dollar weakens under inflation pressure

EUR/USD continues to strengthen weakly at the start of the new trading week, trading at 1.1850. The reason for the weakness of the US dollar is in the latest inflation statistics. The granting of benefits to Americans amid a weak economy has led to an increase in inflation. At the same time, the Fed's interest rate is declining, which feeds the weakness of the US currency. According to the latest data, the consumer price index in the US in July accelerated growth to 1% in annual terms from 0.6% in June, while analysts had expected 0.8%. In monthly terms, the growth was 0.6% against the forecasted 0.3%.

However, today the dollar may recover somewhat, since the US Treasury will raise $ 62.48 billion from the market by placing Treasury bonds, which is the maximum since July 31 (then the Ministry of Finance raised $ 63 billion, which caused an increase in dollar quotes). At that time, the situation may repeat itself.

The economic calendar is practically empty today. The pair will continue to trade in the range of 1.18-1.19.
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GBP/USD. August 18, 2020 – The sterling is located in the area of ​​local highs just below 1.32

On Tuesday, the British currency is trading in the area of ​​local highs at 1.3167. The US dollar is under pressure from Friday's data: the index of current conditions from the University of Michigan fell in August from 82.8 to 82.5 points, while experts expected the indicator to decline to 81.8 points. The consumer sentiment index rose to 72.8 points against 72.5 points a month earlier.

The economic calendar for today is almost empty, so market participants continue to play this news. Only data on construction in the United States will attract attention. Experts predict an increase in the number of building permits issued in July from 1.258 million to 1.313 million.

Tomorrow the dynamics of the pound will be affected by the data on inflation in the UK. The forecast assumes that the CPI will remain at 0.6% on an annualized basis.
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Brent. August 19, 2020 – Oil has stabilized in the area of ​​local maximums

Brent quotes continue to trade at $45 per barrel amid an ambiguous fundamental background. Market participants are awaiting the outcome of the OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting, as well as the release of official data on changes in US oil reserves.

Analysts predict another decline in inventories by 2.7 million barrels per week. However, yesterday's report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected an increase in reserves by 1.1 million barrels.

Oil prices rose to $ 45.50 earlier this week following reports of the effectiveness of the OPEC+ deal. According to polls, in July the alliance countries fulfilled their obligations by more than 90%, which was a historical maximum.

Today, attention should be paid to the meeting of the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee. The coalition is expected to take a wait-and-see approach after the decision to cut production cuts in August from 9.7 million barrels per day to 7.7 million barrels per day.
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EUR/USD. August 20, 2020 – US Federal Reserve meeting minutes supported dollar

On Thursday, the euro started to decline, reaching 1.1800 at the moment. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.1830. The dollar was supported by the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. This time the regulator did not mention the possibility of expanding economic stimulation, which turned out to be a positive factor for the American currency.

At the same time, the Central Bank noted that there are multiple risks associated, first of all, with the uncertain situation due to coronavirus and deflation. And if the pandemic continues, the US economy will again be hit hard.

Today we should pay attention to the publication of data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Experts predict a further reduction in the number of applications for benefits, from 963 thousand to 925 thousand. The publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy will also attract attention.
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EUR/USD. August 21, 2020 – Euro fell below $1.18

At the end of the week, the euro showed a sharp decline to the level of 1.1780. The strong support for the US dollar was brought by the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The regulator made it clear that in the near future it does not intend to soften monetary policy, despite the risks present.

The dollar is growing, even despite yesterday's statistics on unemployment in the United States. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week unexpectedly rose to 1.106 million against 0.971 million a week earlier. The forecast assumed a reduction to 0.930 million. However, investors still hope for a quick stabilization of the labor market, which gives the greenback additional support.

Today we should pay attention to the indexes of business activity in the US manufacturing sector, analysts expect growth in indicators. House sales data will also be of interest. The eurozone will present a preliminary calculation of the index of activity in the service sector for August, as well as data on the manufacturing sector of the European region.
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USD/CAD. August 31, 2020 – Canadian dollar at highs

At the beginning of the week, the quotes of the USD/CAD pair dropped to the area of ​​local minimums of 1.3050 against the background of the weakness of the US dollar after J. Powell's speech last week. The politician announced a new targeting of average inflation and a significant extension of the period around zero interest rates.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar was supported by Friday's macroeconomic data: although Canada's GDP fell by 38.7% in the second quarter, it turned out to be better than the forecasted fall by 39.6%. On a monthly basis, the Canadian economy showed growth at all by 6.5% against the forecast of 5.6%.

Today is a relatively calm trading day as the economic calendar is almost empty.
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EUR/USD. September 01, 2020 | Euro approaches 2-year highs in the 1.20 area

On Tuesday, the euro continues to approach the highs of April 2018 at 1.2000. At the beginning of the new trading week, dollar sales resumed after the publication of data from China: the growth of activity in the service sector in August increased from 54.2 to 55.2 points. The index of business activity in the industrial sector in August was 51.0 against 51.1 in July. The lull in US-China relations has also supported the bullish trend in risky assets.

Today we should pay attention to the data on inflation in Germany, which turned out to be worse than expected. Labor market statistics turned out to be better than forecasted: the number of unemployed in Germany in August fell by 9 thousand – to 2.915 million people. Unemployment remained at 6.4%, the August 2015 high.

Consumer prices in the euro zone in August fell by 0.2% in annual terms. The fall in prices in annual terms was recorded for the first time since May 2016. Experts predicted an average growth of 0.2%. Unemployment in 19 eurozone countries rose to 7.9% in July, the highest level since November 2018.

At the same time, the epidemiological situation in Spain and France continues to deteriorate, which may put pressure on the euro in the short term.

In the evening hours, data from the US will be of interest: on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector for August, as well as the ISM manufacturing index for August and data on the change in the volume of expenses in the construction sector for July.

Brent. September 1, 2020 | Oil trades in different directions

Oil prices show mixed trading dynamics. Yesterday, Brent quotes rose to the level of $46.50, but in the end the initiative remained with the sellers, who sent the asset to $45.30 per barrel. The current Brent quote is $45.80.

Local support to prices was provided today by data from China, according to which the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector in August rose from 54.2 to 55.2 points. The dynamics of growth has been maintained for the sixth month in a row. The last decline under the 50 level was recorded in February. Additional positive for oil prices is brought by the weakness of the US dollar throughout the Forex market.

At the same time, the data on the volume of oil production in the USA exerted pressure on prices. According to the EIA, production in June increased by 4.2% and reached 10.4 million barrels per day. However, further increases in production are in question as Hurricane Laura severely damaged a number of refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

The further dynamics of oil prices will be influenced by tomorrow's report from the US Department of Energy on crude oil reserves in the country. If the data shows a decrease in volumes, then buyers will have a good reason to renew the highs.
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EUR/USD. September 02, 2020 | Euro has suspended the fall at 1.1850

The euro is showing a corrective decline against the dollar, reaching 1.1850 after yesterday's gains to highs in the 1.20 area. The quotes were pressured by macroeconomic data from Europe: the final index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone in August remained at 51.7 points. In Germany, the same indicator was lower than the previous value (52.2 points against 53.0).

Preliminary data on inflation in the eurozone for August reflected an increase of 0.4% in annual terms. The forecast assumed a decline to 0.9% y/y after July to 1.2%. By itself, inflation in August fell by 0.2% y/y against expectations of growth by 0.2 y/y. Today, the euro was under pressure from data from Germany, according to which retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month in July, which was worse than expected.

The statistics from the USA also disappointed the markets: construction costs in July grew by only 0.1% m/m against expectations of growth by 1.0% and the previous decline by 0.5%.

The 1.1850 level managed to contain the onslaught of dollar bulls. The RSI indicator has stabilized in the neutral zone, which signals the formation of a flat at the current levels.
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Brent. September 03, 2020 – Oil declines despite shrinking US stocks

Brent crude oil shows a decline on Thursday, weakening to $43.40 a barrel and hitting a new low since early August. Quotes are falling, even despite yesterday's report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, according to which the commercial oil reserves in the country fell by 9.4 million, to 498.4 million barrels. Reduction of stocks of raw materials in the United States has been observed for the sixth consecutive week. Despite this, US oil reserves still exceed the 5-year average by about 14%.

The asset was under pressure from the data that the demand for gasoline fell, and the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is proceeding at a slow pace. According to the EIA, gasoline stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels, to 234.86 million barrels, distillate stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels, to 177.52 million barrels.

Further dynamics of oil will depend on statistics on the US labor market, which will be released tomorrow. Given that yesterday's ADP report was worse than expected, the official statistics may also disappoint the markets and put pressure on the US dollar.

USD/CAD. September 03, 2020 – Looney continues to weaken, losing oil support

The Canadian dollar continues to weaken against the US dollar, reaching 1.31 after strengthening to 1.2990 last week. Earlier, the loonie was supported by the widespread weakness of the American currency and the rise in oil prices to the area of ​​$46.50 per barrel.

However, it should be noted that the fundamental background has changed slightly, despite the correctional decline of the Canadian. In the US, the debate continues on the adoption of measures to stimulate the economy, and it was reported that the Treasury Department again rejected the proposals of the Democrats.

Today we should pay attention to the statistics on business activity in the US services sector for August. The US dollar may also be supported by data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: experts predict a decrease in the indicator from 1.006K to 980K. Labor market reports will be released tomorrow in both the US and Canada.

In the meantime, the quotation of the USD/CAD pair is growing with a target in the area of 1.3130. Additional pressure on the Canadian dollar is exerted by a decline in the oil market, where Brent quotes weakened to $43.45 per barrel.
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EUR/USD. September 04, 2020 – Dollar is in anticipation of data on the US labor market

EUR/USD is consolidating at 1.1840 in anticipation of important macroeconomic news. Today the focus of the markets is centered around the statistics on the US labor market for August. And the further rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve will depend on how strong the indicators turn out to be.

Recently, the dollar exchange rate has been under pressure from expectations of a new stimulus for the American economy, but if today's data are better than expected, then financial injections may not be required.

So, the forecasts of investors according to statistics are as follows: unemployment may fall to 9.8% from 10.2% in July. Average hourly wages are expected to remain unchanged after an earlier rise of 0.2% m/m. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector may increase by 1.375 million after rising 1.763 million earlier.

Already published statistics from the United States showed an increase in labor productivity by 10.1% in the second quarter of the year. The index of business activity in the US services sector in August from Markit amounted to 55.0 points against the previous value of 54.8. At the same time, official data reflected a decrease in the indicator: to 56.9 points from 58.1 earlier.
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EUR/USD. September 07, 2020 – The pair is consolidating above the level of 1.18

EUR/USD starts the week with a slight decline towards the 1.1800 level. Today is a public holiday in the United States to celebrate Labor Day, so volatility in the market will be minimal.

Last Friday, the US released labor market data showing a decline in the unemployment rate from 10.2% to 8.4%. Experts predicted a decline to 9.8%. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector rose by 1.371 million after expanding in July by 1.734 million. Average hourly wages in the country in August rose by 0.4% m/m. Such strong data was a signal for the recovery of the employment sector and American business.

However, risks remain in the US economy. Investors expect job growth to slow as the entire support program has already been exhausted. However, politicians have been unable to agree on a new $1 trillion aid package for a long time.
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GBP/USD. September 08, 2020 – The pound continues to weaken against the dollar

The British pound sterling continues to decline against the dollar, approaching the 1.3100 level. Pressure on the GBP/USD pair is exerted by difficulties in the Brexit negotiations between London and Brussels. A new round of debate starts today, but yesterday it became known that the British Parliament intends to cancel the amendment on the customs space of Northern Ireland, which could violate all preliminary agreements with the European Union.

Earlier, the pound was under pressure from the statements of the representative of the Bank of England Michael Saunders on the need for further easing of the monetary policy. As a result, the market increased expectations of an expansion in the volume of the quantitative easing program at the next meeting of the British Central Bank.

Additional support for the «bears» is provided by the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of strong data on the US labor market.

Today the pair's downward dynamics will continue. However, the RSI indicator is directed towards the support area, which signals a likely trend change in the near future.
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EUR/USD. September 9, 2020 – Euro dipped to the level of 1.1750

The EUR/USD pair continues to retreat amid risk aversion of investors. The current quote for the pair is 1.1750. Market participants are watching with dismay the rise in the number of new cases of coronavirus, as no economy in the world is ready for new quarantine restrictions.

The euro was also under pressure from the statistics released earlier: the next calculation of the eurozone's GDP for the second quarter reflected a fall of 11.8% q/q against the initial estimate of -12.1% q/q. In annual terms, the eurozone economy fell by 14.7% in April-June. The data turned out to be better than forecasted, but the decline still looks very sharp and strong.

The statistics on the level of employment in the region in the second quarter reflected a decrease of 2.9%, which was slightly worse than the initial estimate. In the first quarter, the same indicator decreased by 0.3%. Experts note that the current state of affairs is the most negative since the start of statistics collection in 1995.

Tonight you should pay attention to the data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market JOLTS for July. Experts predict an increase in the number of vacancies to 6 million.
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EUR/USD. September 10, 2020 – Euro rises in anticipation of ECB meeting

On Thursday, the euro demonstrates growth to the level of 1.1890 amid expectations of the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank and the speech of Christine Lagarde. Before there were rumors that the regulator's management plans to revise the economic forecast for 2020 towards improvement, which caused the sudden growth of the euro.

Today, traders are most interested in the ECB's position on the euro exchange rate and its impact on the volume of eurozone exports. Earlier, the chief economist of the central bank Philip Lane said that the euro is too high, which could have an impact on future monetary policy. Whether the head of the ECB will develop this idea during his speech will become known a little later.

Market participants doubt the regulator's transition to a strategy of targeting the average inflation rate following the example of the US Federal Reserve System. If Lagarde reports that the eurozone economy is recovering rapidly, the regulator will not expand the QE program or apply additional mitigation measures, which will be an excellent factor for further strengthening of the European currency.
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