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Date : 18th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2019.



FX News Today

* 10-year Treasury yields corrected -2.7 bp to 2.567% and JGB yields are down -1.4 bp at -0.0033%.

* Asian bonds were generally supported, as stock markets sentiment turned sour again, with South Korean paper underperforming after the BoK left interest rates unchanged, but cut its growth and inflation forecast to 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.

* Record household debt was one of the factors holding the BoK back from cutting rates for now, and South Korea’s 10-year yield jumped 5.9 bp as the bank tried to calm recession fears.

* Stock markets generally corrected from the six months high seen yesterday with uninspiring corporate earnings and problems with a new Samsung phone preventing further gains for now.

* Topix and Nikkei lost -0.96% and -0.80% respectively, after Wall Street closed with slight losses.

* The Hang Seng is down -0.58%, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.44% and -0.39% respectively. The ASX dropped -0.10% and US stock futures are also broadly lower, suggesting ongoing pressure on markets.

* The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 63.77 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD is still trading around the 1.13 level, and in a channel with key Resistance at 1.1320 and Support at 1.1279. Both are still strong after having bounced yesterday. Indicators are issuing mixed signals.

* GBPUSD has been stable around the 1.30 level, still unable to break through, fluctuating between the 1.3067-1.3026 Resistance and Support levels. Indicators are giving positive signals.

* USDJPY started the day below 112.00 mark, as indicators are suggesting a downwards movement. Support remains at 111.80.

* XAUUSD is trading at year-to-date lows, after breaking through the 1275 Support level. 1270 is the next Support level, with indicators are showing signs of stabilization.

Main Macro Events Today

* EU PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to increase in April, to 47.9 and 51.8 respectively while the Services PMI is forecasted to have remained at 53.3.

* Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Retail Sales ex Fuel are expected to have increased to 4% y/y, compared to 3.8% y/y in March.

* Retail Sales ex Autos (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have increased to 0.4% in March, up from the negative 0.2% surprise in February.

* Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are forecasted to have registered an increase in Canada as well, to 0.2% compared to 0.1% in January.

* Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Philly Fed index is expected to have eased to 10.3 compared to 13.7 in March.

* Markit PMIs (USD, GMT 13:45) – Mixed signals are expected from the PMI release, as Manufacturing is expected to have increased to 52.8 from 52.4, while the Services PMI is expected to have declined to 55 from 55.3.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2019.



FX News Today

* Wall Street was higher overnight, with the Dow up 0.4% and outperforming on the back of strong retail sales data and better earnings from Travelers and American Express.

* Core European bourses were mixed, with the DAX up nearly 0.6%, the CAC 40 up 0.3%, and the FTSE slightly underwater.

* Japan released its March national CPI, which as expected remained well below the 2% BoJ’s target. The overall rose to 0.5% y/y from 0.2%, and the core is at 0.8% from the 0.7% y/y.

* The Japanese inflation supports once again the BoJ’s large-scale easy monetary policy.

* The US, Canada, the UK and several other European and Asian markets are closed for Good Friday, with Europe remaining shut for Easter Monday. Only Japan is open from the Asia trading centres.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD is still trading below the 1.13 level, retracing nearly 23% of yesterday’s losses. The April low of 1.1184, then the March 7 bottom of 1.1177 will be in the cross hairs in the coming sessions if we face a move below 1.1220.

* GBPUSD has been stable at the upper 1.29 level, still unable to break through 1.30, fluctuating between the 1.3006 and 1.2960, which are Resistance and Support (PP) level respectively. Indicators are giving negative signals.

Main Macro Events Today

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Both Building Permits and Housing Starts are expected to have increased in March, by 1.299M and 1.230M respectively, up from 1.291M and 1.162M in February.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd April 2019.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.



The shortened week starts with just one piece of news on Monday and Tuesday from the US, while Wednesday will be in focus as the UK Parliament returns from its Easter recess. US Durable Goods are out on Thursday along with the BoJ rate decision.

Wednesday – 24 April 2019

* CPI (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australia’s inflation rate for Q1 is expected to have declined slightly to 1.7% y/y compared to 1.8% y/y in the final quarter of 2018.

* IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 99.9 compared to 99.6 last month.

* Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00) – At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change. A sharper and more broadly based slowdown in the domestic economy, alongside a slowing in the global economy that has been more pronounced and widespread than anticipated saw the Bank state “the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range.”

Thursday – 25 April 2019

* Event of the week – Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) – Among the core central banks, BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”. Hence, once again BoJ is expected to keep the interest rate as it is, given that it appears to have finally had an impact on the Japanese economy.

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – March durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.2%, following a 1.6% February decline. Shipments expected to fall 1.5% in March, after a 0.2% reading in February.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in April. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.6% m/m in March, compared to -1.1% m/m in February, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 1.2% y/y, compared to 0.6% in March.

Friday – 26 April 2019

* US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q1 GDP is expected to rise 2.6%, following a 2.2% pace in Q4 and 3.4% growth in Q3.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd April 2019.



FX News Today

* Markets returning after a 4-day Easter break.

* Investors remain cautious ahead of key earnings reports including Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and Microsoft this week.

* Reluctance to push stock valuations out further kept bond markets underpinned during the Asian session.

* Chinese bond and stock markets continued to struggle, on the decreased expectations of future Chinese monetary stimulus since the weekend.

* Ongoing uncertainty about the outlook for world growth is underpinning caution on stock markets amid the deluge of earnings reports this week.

* Energy stocks remained supported as oil prices surged to a 6-month high.

* The front end WTI future is currently trading at USD 66.00 per barrel.

* European stock futures are posting slight gains, in tandem with US futures.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD crossed below 20-day MA today, with the asset moving bearishly since Asia open. The underpinning of Euro could continue as the spread between the 10-year US and Germa government bond yields rising.

* USDJPY has been stuck inside of 111.50 and 112.20 for more than a week now, struggling over the 112.00 level reportedly due to ongoing Japanese exporter backed selling, while finding support from what have mostly been risk-on conditions of late. Further USDJPY gains this week ahead of the BoJ meeting.

* AUDUSD is in a 5-day decline. It crossed earlier into the lower Bollinger Bands area, indicating the increase of negative bias. Next Support levels at: 0.7107 and 0.7097.

Main Macro Events Today

* New Home Sales –March new home sales are also expected to fall 7.0% to a 620k rate, following a 4.9% increase to 667k in February.

* Canadian Wholesale Sales – February wholesale trade is expected to show a 0.5% expansion in shipment values after the 0.6% gain in January.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2019.



FX News Today

* Australia’s bond as well as stock markets rallied after inflation came in lower than anticipated at 0.0% q/q, down from 0.5% in the previous period and versus median expectations of 0.1%.

* Markets are convinced that the inflation miss will make a rate cut all but inevitable and 10-year yields plunged 10.5 bp, while the ASX jumped as much as 1.1% to a more than 11 year high, after already outperforming yesterday.

* Elsewhere in Asia markets were under pressure, however, despite the strong close on Wall Street, where sentiment was boosted by upbeat earnings reports.

* The USA500 and USA100 closed at record highs Tuesday

* Twitter stock surged more than 15% on earnings beat, while the Coca-Cola share price is up 2% as Q1 earnings revenue was $8.02 billion, topping projections of $7.88 billion. The concerns that China may slow the pace of policy easing and stimulus measures continue to weigh on sentiment.

* WTI oil softer today after surge to 6-mth high at $66.60 yesterday.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USOIL softer at 66.00 hurdle after topping at a new nearly six-month high of $66.60. Overall, outlook holds to the upside as the asset is sloping within an uptrend, with small corrections to the downside.

* USDJPY has continued to oscillate in a narrow range in the 111.75-112.00 area. The focus this week will be on fresh signs that corroborate the return-to-growth picture in major global economies. A continuation of this theme would be supportive of currencies that performer with higher beta characteristics, such as the Dollar bloc units, while currencies of the low-yielding safe haven type, such as the Yen, would be apt to underperform. USDJPY has Support at 111.54-111.60, levels which encompass the prevailing position of the 200-day moving average.

* AUDUSD dove to 0.7026, just a breath above 3-year Support. It was driven by Aussie-specific losses following sub forecast CPI data out of Australia, which catalysed calls for the RBA to cut interest rates at its next policy review in May. A break of 0.7000 could open the way towards a December slip.

Main Macro Events Today

* IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 99.9 compared to 99.6 last month.

* Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00) – At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change. A sharper and more broadly based slowdown in the domestic economy, alongside a slowing in the global economy that has been more pronounced and widespread than anticipated saw the Bank state “the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range.”

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2019.



FX News Today

* The BoJ left rates unchanged, but clarified its forward guidance, saying it will keep rates very low at least through spring of next year.

* Also, they will expand the eligible collateral and also consider the introduction of an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) lending facility, that would allow to temporarily lend ETFs that the Bank holds to market participants.

* Japanese stock markets outperformed going into the announcement, but mainland China indices were under pressure.

* Stock futures are moving higher in Europe and the US. The weaker than expected Ifo reading yesterday and a negative GDP print from South Korea overnight added to concerns about the outlook for world growth, which means rates will stay low for longer.

* The Swedish Riksbank is widely expected to keep monetary policy on hold today.

* The front end WTI future is trading at USD 65.91 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDCHF is consolidating since last night within 1.01970-1.02190 range. However, the pair still holds above 1.0200, suggesting the continuation of the uptrend, as the pair remains well above the medium term Support at 1.0123 level (6 month Resistance converted to Support). Intraday, however, and as momentum indicators have been flattened, consolidation mode could possibly hold within the day. A cross below 1.0200 could retest yesterday’s lows.

* AUDUSD within the strong 3-year Support, 0.7000-0.7020. It could react as a retracement level for the asset. However, the 3 black crows in the daily chart suggest that negative bias is increasing for AUDUSD.

Main Macro Events Today

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – March durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.2%, following a 1.6% February decline. Shipments are expected to fall 1.5% in March, after a 0.2% reading in February.

* NZ Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The trade report is expected to show an improvement in the surplus to NZ$300 mln in March from NZ$12 mln in February.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in April. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.6% m/m in March, compared to -1.1% m/m in February, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 1.2% y/y, compared to 0.6% in March.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th April 2019.



FX News Today

* Asian stock markets drifted mostly lower as Japan heads for a long holiday week, and with earnings reports and data releases weighing in sentiment.

* Japan production unexpectedly contracted, which after the correction in South Korea GDP yesterday, added to signs of weakness in the region and also highlighted the contrasting strength of the US economy, after robust durable goods orders yesterday.

* President Xi Jinping said China won’t engage in currency depreciation that harms other nations.

* YEN: has been underpinned by safe haven demand amid growth concerns in Asia and European and flagging stock markets.

* The WTI future is trading slightly under USD 65 per barrel.

* Earnings reports and US GDP numbers will provide the main focus for markets today, with the local calendar holding only the UK CBI industrial trends survey.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY fell to 2-week lows of 111.38 before rebounding again between the Pivot Point of the day and the 20-day SMa, at 111.60-111.75 area. The pairing fell from the 2019 highs seen into the Wednesday close, and ahead of what was expected to be and was, a dovish BoJ announcement. USDJPY has tried, and failed to hold the 112 mark for several weeks now, and may be entering a phase of shaking out some long positions, before being able to make fresh gains. Overall, risk sentiment will be a determining factor going forward, though with the BoJ on hold, and a chance for further easing ahead, USDJPY can be expected to eventually head higher.

* EURUSD bounced from its trend low of 1.1118 seen after the early round of US data, peaking at 1.1154. The USD generally turned lower through the morning session, appearing to be driven by a round of position squaring following earlier 2-year DXY highs. The Euro is expected to remain in sell-the-rally mode based on the fundamentals. The ECB economic bulletin signaled risks remain to the downside, underscoring the Bank will be “low for longer”. The next downside level remains at the 1.1100 level.

Main Macro Events Today

* US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q1 GDP, is expected to rise 2.6%, following a 2.2% pace in Q4 and 3.4% growth in Q3.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th April 2019.



* We have a huge week ahead for markets, with two central banks policy meetings being in the spotlight, the BoE and the FOMC. Data-wise, we have some of the heaviest data, with Eurozone’s inflation numbers and GDP for the 1st Quarter of 2019, while the US Jobs report on Friday stands out as the event of the coming week.

Monday – 29 April 2019

* Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 12:30) – A low reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to be negative for the USD. PCE inflation is expected to stand at 0.2% reading for February with a 0.1% increase for the core, which matches the headline February CPI and core figures. The March reading is expected at 0.4% PCE chain price and a 0.1% in the core index, which also matches the March CPI reading.

Tuesday – 30 April 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Euro Area Preliminary GDP for the 1st Quarter is expected to have increased by 0.3% q/q, compared to 0.2% in the previous quarter, while it should remain flat at 1.1% y/y.

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.4% y/y in March. In April however, it is expected to rise to 1.6% y/y.

* Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – February GDP is expected to slow to 0.1%, compared to 0.3% last month, perhaps paving the way for an extended pause in rate hikes from the BoC lasting through mid-year.

* CB Consumer Confidence Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have declined from 126.0 in April to 124.1 in March.

* Employment data (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Employment expected to keep growing in Q1, with the employment change rising to 0.3%q/q from 0.1%q/q.

Wednesday – 01 May 2019

* ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The April ADP Employment report should reveal a 175k gain for the month, after a 129k March gain.

* ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Manufacturing PMI is expected to edge up to 55.0 in April from 55.3 in March.

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC is expected to leave the funds rates steady and to continue tapering the balance sheet runoff and will taper it in May, and end it in September. However, the US economy is expected to continue strengthen, something that will eventually call for another rate hike later in the year.

Thursday – 02 May 2019

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day. If the transition runs smoothly we might see another 25 bp hike in May 2019. The BoE has cautioned that the outlook will “depend significantly on the nature of EU withdrawal,” and noted that “uncertainty has intensified.” Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

Friday – 03 May 2019

* Building Approvals (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian housing sector has been facing issues in the past months, with building approvals surprisingly jump in February at fastest rate in over 5 years, at 19.1% . Consensus forecasts for March however suggest that a comeback could have occurred and hence, Building Approvals are expected to fall at 1.0%

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –The Euro Area CPI is expected to come out at 1.6% y/y, above March’s outcome.

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30)– April nonfarm payrolls are expected to have stood by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% for a y/y gain of 3.3%, up from 3.2% in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th April 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th April 2019.



FX News Today

* China misses manufacturing PMIs moving Asian stock markets lower, Japan remains closed all week. The disappointing manufacturing PMI readings out of China, which signalled a deceleration in the pace of expansion in both private and official readings. The official reading fell back to just 50.1 from 50.4.

* French Q1 GDP growth held steady at 0.3% q/q, in line with consensus expectations and bringing the annual rate to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% y/y in the previous quarter.

* YEN: has been underpinned by continued safe haven demand and growth concerns in Asia compounded by the weak Chinese data. USDJPY moved down to test 111.50 overnight.

* USOil remains under $63.50 and weighed by Fridays fall, GOLD pivots around $1280 but is capped at 1285

* Earnings reports from Alphabet disappointed. Overnight, US markets closed up but Futures are down again this morning.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY fell again to test 111.50 and the S1 daily support at 111.48. USDJPY has tried, and failed to hold the 112 mark for several weeks now, and may be entering a phase of shaking out some long positions, before being able to make fresh gains. Overall, risk sentiment will be a determining factor going forward, though with the BoJ on hold, and a chance for further easing ahead, USDJPY can be expected to eventually head higher. 112.00 remains key resistance with the 200-day sma at 111.15.

* EURUSD made its way to four-session highs of 1.1184 after the London close, up from early lows of 1.1146. The core PCE price data released earlier was cooler than expected, which helped the Euro post modest gains. While the pairing is well up on Friday’s trend low, further gains will likely be tentative into Today’s preliminary CPI figures from the major EU countries and trades at 111.80, currently. Given ongoing softness in EU data, and an ECB likely to be lower for longer, EURUSD remains pressured. The next downside level remains at the 1.1100 zone.

Main Macro Events Today

* CAD Gross Domestic Product (CAD – 12:30) – The economy’s most important figure, m/m GDP, is expected to rise 0.3%

* German CPI & EUR Flash GDP (EUR – 10:00) – German regional Inflation and Eurozone GDP are both expected to creep up a tick to 0.5% and 0.3% from 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, nothing in the numbers is expected to alert the ECB’s position on a sluggish EZ area.

* Consumer Board Consumer Confidence (USD-15:00) – Expectations are for a bounce to 126.2 in April from 124.1 in March.
Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Asian stock markets traded mixed in quiet trade, with China and Japan still on holiday.

* The Fed held rates steady, as expected but it dealt a blow to hopes of an “insurance” rate cut, while stressing patience and data dependence for the policy outlook.

* Fed chair Powell indicated that low inflation might be transitory, and that global growth concerns had eased.

* The USA30 was down -0.61% at the end, the USA500 lost -0.75%.

* The ASX also dipped -0.74% after the nation’s biggest lender cut its dividend, but benchmarks in South Korea and Hong Kong ticked higher after reports from CNBC saying the US and China could announce a trade deal as soon as next Friday.

* Oil prices fell to USD 63.39 overnight with US stockpiles weighing.

* Gold futures rallied slightly after the FOMC announcement, as the USD fell, and yields headed lower, topping at $1,289.05 from $1,285.00. The contract later fell under $1,275.00, a one-week low.

* Sterling has outperformed for a 2nd day, floated by optimism on the Brexit front.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* GBPUSD has Support at 1.3010, and Resistance at 1.3103, the latter levels encompassing the current situation of the 50-day moving average.

* XAUUSD is trading below 1,272.00. after Fed chair Powell indicated that low inflation might be transitory, and that global growth concerns had eased. This saw the USD and Treasury yields head higher, both weighing on gold prices. Given the strong ADP number, the USD expected to remain underpinned into tomorrow’s release of the April US payrolls report.

* EURUSD fell from a high of 1.1264 to a post-Powell low of 1.1187 before settling to a narrow range around 1.1200. Support holds at 1.1160-1.1185 and REsistastance is set at 1.1210-1.1215.

Main Macro Events Today

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day. If the transition runs smoothly we might see another 25 bp hike in May 2019. The BoE has cautioned that the outlook will “depend significantly on the nature of EU withdrawal,” and noted that “uncertainty has intensified.” Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

* US Q1 Nonfarm Productivity (USD, GMT 12:30) – Q1 productivity should post a 1.2% rate of growth, down from 1.9%, with unit labor costs rising 2.3% from 2.0%.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets mostly managed slight gains in quiet trade across Asia as Japan and mainland China remained closed for holidays and with investors positioning for the US jobs report.

* BoE yesterday warned that in the central scenario of a smooth Brexit transition rates will have to go up more and faster than markets currently expect.

* Overnight big drop in Australian Building approvals as the market corrected from a big rise in February.

* Earnings also remained in focus with better than expected profits reported by HSBC helping to underpin shares in Hong Kong while a profit warning from Macquarie weighed on the ASX.

* US stock futures are also moving higher after closing broadly lower on Thursday, following alongside Treasury yields as the market further digested yesterday’s signal from the Fed that a rate cut is not on the menu this year.

* US-Sino trade talks also remain in focus and will add to volatility until a deal is finally on the table.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD touched a low of 1.1165 into the London open. The pair dropped nearly 100 points from the highs, while the close yesterday under the 1.1200 mark suggests an increasing bearish bias for the Euro. Resistance now sits at 1.1200, or further up to 1.1220 (20 DMA), with Support at 1.1145, the April 29 low.

* USOIL failed to recover yesterday. It remains down nearly 4%, bottoming so far at $61.03. Price weakness has come following the EIA reporting US inventories at near 2-year highs on Wednesday. Supplies are expected to increase further in the next month, as refinery maintenance curbs crude demand. Hence, the $60.50 level is now a key Support, representing both the 50- and 200-day MAs.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –The Euro Area CPI is expected to come out at 1.6% y/y, above March’s outcome.

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – April nonfarm payrolls are expected to have stood by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% for a y/y gain of 3.3%, up from 3.2% in March.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Japan remains closed for holidays.

* Elsewhere, China’s April services PMI is due, seen at 54.5 from 54.4.

* In the Asia region risk aversion spiked after US President Trump issued threats of new tariffs on imports from China in a bid to up the pressure in trade negotiations.

* Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to return to Washington for trade talks on Wednesday, but after Trump’s threat China is now considering cancelling this week’s round of talks.

* North Korea launched missiles over the weekend, which included the first ballistic missile launch since 2017; this saw investors heading for safety.

* Treasury futures are allying, while yields across Asia are plummeting sharply and stocks selling off.

* Australia’s 10-year bond yield fell nearly 5 bp amid the general flight for safety and as markets position for a rate cut ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision.

* US futures are posting losses in the region of 1.8-1.9%.

* The front end WTI future is trading at USD 60.45 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD retested 1.1200 highs, up from the 1.1135 lows seen immediately after the US jobs report. The Dollar overall took a hit on Friday and again today. Though the pair closed the week with modest gains (bullish weekly candle), it remains well off of Wednesday’s high of 1.1265 and within the lower BB area, while intraday indicators have been flattened suggesting intraday consolidation. The Resistance comes in at 1.1228, the 20-day MA and Support at 1.1166. As the US economy is in a solid growth with low inflation sweet spot, the EURUSD is seen following the 1-year downchannel forming lower highs and lower lows.

* AUDUSD fell below the round 0.7000 level below to recover yesterday. As Bollinger Bands extend southwards and momentum indicators are sloping towards oversold barrier, another negative session along with the continuation of lower highs, implies a move towards 0.6800-0.6900 area.

Main Macro Events Today

* Markit Composite PMI and Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 08:00-09:00) – The EU Composite PMI is expected to remain at the three-month low of 51.3 in April, while Retail Sales are forecast to slip to 0.1% m/m in March, with the annual rate decelerating to 2.3% y/y from 2.8% y/y.

* Fed speeches – Fed reports its Senior Loan Officer Survey. Fed President Harker discusses the economic outlook.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock market still struggled during the Asian session though and European stock futures are down on the day, as are US futures, although the latter managed to pare some of their overnight losses.

* RBA left cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for now, as federal election looms. The ASX was knocked off highs.

* Trump’s top trade negotiator meanwhile confirmed that Washington plans to go ahead with tariff hikes on Chinese goods on Friday.

* China vice-premier Liu Hewill visit Washington on May 9-10.

* Indices in China and Hong Kong, which started stronger started to pare gains leaving the Hang Seng down -0.11%, the CSI 300 up 0.15% as of 5:32GMT, versus losses of -1.29% and -1.61% in Topix and Nikkei. .

* WTI future managed to climb to USD 62.29.

* German manufacturing orders rebounded 0.6% m/m, -4.0% m/m contraction in the previous month, and showed a sharp decline in orders inflow in the first quarter of the year, highlighting the impact of geopolitical trade tensions on the manufacturing sector in particular.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USA500 rebounded from 2882 lows, up to 2927 area. As the asset sustains gains above the 20-day MA, with momentum indicators positively configured, the next Resistance area comes at 2848-2960. Support is set athe PP of the day and also the low of the day at 2909.78. RSI is at 57 and sloping higher, in contrast with MACD which suggest weakness of the positive momentum.

* USDJPY recovered from the 1-month low of 110.28 s topping at 110.95 in late NY morning trade. Currently is consolidating around PP level at 110.65. As yesterday’s candles closed outside Bollinger Bands area pointing an oversold asset, while 50- and 200-day MAs have been flattened implying to a near-term ranging market, the asset is expected to enter a consolidation mode. Resistance is now at Friday’s 111.07 low, though the downturn in US Treasury yields may limit gains going forward.

Main Macro Events Today

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Expectations suggest that the Index will decline to 51.1 compared to 54.3 last month, although still remain above 50.

* BoJ Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – BoJ Minutes are expected to shed more light as to how Japanese policymakers are assessing the current global slowdown and whether they plan any further policy actions.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2019.



FX News Today

* The RBNZ became the first central bank in the developed world to begin loosening policy this cycle. NZDUSD drifted to 6-month low at 0.6525.

* German industrial production unexpectedly rose 0.5% m/m in March.

* Given the correction in orders in Q1 and manufacturing PMI readings that show the manufacturing sector in recession, not just in Germany, the better than expected German production number for March doesn’t change the overall picture of weakness in a sector that clearly is pressured by the combination of geopolitical trade tensions and Brexit jitters, with no sign of improvement, despite today’s upside surprise in the headline reading.

* The weaker than expected trade data out of China showed exports contracting and the trade surplus falling sharply added to ongoing concerns about developments in world trad.

* Brexit fatigue has driven the pound lower vs most other currencies today

* The front end WTI future is trading at USD 61.78 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD dropped to lows under 1.1170 after opening near 1.1200. The downward move came partly on safe-haven flows into the Dollar. Resistance comes at 1.1222, the 20-day MA, with support seen at 1.1135, Friday’s low.

* USDJPY has fallen to 110.16 lows, just below Monday’s 1-month base of 110.29. The pairing has been weighed down by another risk-off session, related to the escalating US/China trade war. Wall Street is sharply lower, while Treasury yields are down again today as well. Further equity losses will likely see the Dollar head below yesterday’s low, which them brings the March 25 bottom of 109.70 into focus.

Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Housing Starts – April housing starts are expected to improve to 195.0k from 192.5k in March.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th May 2019.



FX News Today

* US President Trump confirmed that tariffs on a large chunk of China imports will rise to 25% on Friday from currently 10%, saying that China “broke the deal” and would pay.

* Fears that the hard line stance on China will also put the spotlight on imports from other countries put pressure on automakers in Japan and will also keep European stock markets in suspense.

* European stock futures are heading south in tandem with US futures, after a broad sell off in Asia.

* Ongoing Brexit jitters are adding to the risk-off backdrop in Europe, with no breakthrough in cross-party talks on a Brexit deal in sight and RICS house price data overnight showing that the housing market remains pressured.

* The WTI future is trading at USD 61.67 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD is moving higher into the EU session. It is currently retesting the 1.1200 area. The Euro was supported by stronger German industrial production released overnight, though the Dollar has since perked up slightly on safe-haven flows, as the US and China continue to play chicken with trade negotiations. EUR-USD resistance comes at 1.1217, which represents the 20-day moving average, with support at Tuesday’s 1.1167 low.

* EURCHF has settled into a choppy consolidation centred on 1.1400 after a 4-week rally, bellow the 6-month peak at 1.1476 in late April. The pronounced Swiss Franc underperformance that was seen during most of April was accompanied by narratives talking about the market being in the process of giving up on the Franc’s role as a safe haven currency, which has been afflicted by the SNB’s -0.75% deposit rate, and which finally seemed to have elicited down-weighting of Franc by reserve and portfolio overlay managers. On the year-to-date, the Swissie remains down by over 3.5% against the Dollar and by nearly 1.5% versus the Euro. Overall, Swiss policymakers’ efforts to both weaken the Franc and dethrone the currency from its safe-haven status look to be working.

Main Macro Events Today

* Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – Although less important than in other economies, the US trade balance still provides a useful overview of the overall economy and the Dollar supply in the world, especially as reducing it has been one of Trump’s main targets. Still, consensus forecasts suggest that the shortfall should widen slightly to -$49.9 bln from -$49.4 bln in February. A 0.7% rise for exports to $211.2 bln is expected and a 0.8% increase for imports to $261.1 bln.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Trading remained nervous ahead of the Friday deadline on tariff hikes.

* While comments from US President Trump that an agreement is still possible initially saw stock markets rallying in Asia, caution has since made a comeback as investors react to headlines.

* Japanese markets erased earlier gains and fell back into negative territory before stabilizing, and Topix and Nikkei are down -0.18% and 0.47% respectively as of 05:39GMT.

* The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 61.92 per barrel.

* German exports rebound in March – German trade data at the start of the session is showing another solid surplus in March and Q1, amid lingering fears that the focus of the US administration will once again turn to stagnant US-EU trade talks.

* European stock futures are moving higher, while US futures recovered most of their overnight losses and are little changed on the day, as it seems markets are set to buy into hopes that a deal will be reached eventually.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY has been pushed down to 109.51. Another severe session of risk-off has weighed, with both Wall Street and Treasury yields getting hammered, keeping the pressure on the pairing. The pair managed to find some ground ahead of the EU session, and hence it is currently moving above PP level. However, as the overall outlook remains bearish, the February 4 low of 109.43 remains the next downside Support level, with a break there set to test the 109.00 level.

* USDCAD rallied to 2-week highs of 1.3505, finding support from modest Oil price losses, and a generally firmer USD. Light buy-stops were noted on the break of 1.3500, though follow through was limited. USDCAD is rangebound between 1.3505 and 1.3430. April highs of 1.3516-1.3521 will need to be eclipsed to shift sentiment to a more bullish stance, otherwise overall consolidation holds.

* USOIL has remained rangebound, sticking inside of Monday’s trading band, between $60.00 and $62.92. Concerns over the US/China trade war have kept a lid on prices this week, due to the prospects for demand destruction. On the supply side, Libya exports (near 1.0 mln bpd) are at risk due to civil war in the country threatening further supply disruption on top of the shutdown in production from Iran and Venezuela due to sanctions, and the ongoing OPEC+ production cuts. As a result, risk would appear to be to the upside for oil prices in the coming sessions, regardless of trade worries.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The economy’s most important figure, preliminary Q1 GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0.2% q/q.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI is estimated to rise 0.4% in April, after a similar reading in March. The overall CPI is expected to be up 2.1% y/y, from 1.9% in March. US Core CPI is estimated to rise 0.2% in April, following a 0.1% increase in March.

* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.8% in April, however the employment change is forecast to increase to 1K, after the 7.2k loss in March.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th May 2019.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.



Markets could keep being restive as the trade war escalates, with concerns rising regarding a response from China. Meanwhile, the main focus should turn to the US as the week ahead includes a heavy slate of economic reports that will include important updates on consumption, inventories, factory output, sentiment, and the housing sector.

* Tuesday – 14 May 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The preliminary German HICP inflation for April was higher than initially expected, at 2.1% y/y. However the final reading is expected to fall back to 1.7% y/y.

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for March is expected to hold at 3.4%. The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.9%.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for May is expected to decline to 1.0 compared to 4.5 last month.

* Wednesday – 15 May 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Preliminary Q1 results are expected to come in stronger than expected at 0.3%, after confirmed at 0.0% q/q for Q4 2018. Eurozone prelim. Q1 GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – We expect readings of 0.2% for April retail sales and 0.7% for ex-auto sales, following a 1.6% increase for the March headline and a 1.2% increase ex-autos. Unit vehicle sales slowed in April, and gasoline prices should continue to boost retail activity given an estimated 5.5% increase in the CPI for gasoline.

* Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI is expected to slip to 0.3% from the 0.7% reading the past 2 months.

* Thursday – 16 May 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian labour market data is expected to deteriorate, as the unemployment rate expected to increase to 5.1% in April from 5.0% last month, while employment is anticipated at 14K from 25.7K in March.

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Both Building Permits and Housing Starts should jump in April, to a 1.215 mln pace and to 1.298 mln respectively, after a 0.3% and 0.2% decline seen in March. Overall, a stronger trajectory is expected for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits.

* Friday – 17 May 2019

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for April is expected to slow down slightly, at 0.7% from 1% last month. However, the overall picture remains largely unchanged, with headline inflation remaining modest, but underlying inflation starting to firm. No reason then for the ECB to add additional stimulus measures to an already very accommodative policy stance, and “low for longer” remains the message not just from the ECB.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary May Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.7, up from the final April sentiment at 97.2.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th May 2019.



FX News Today

* The stock sell off that was triggered by new US tariffs and China’s retaliation measures announced yesterday eased somewhat during the Asian session after some conciliatory comments from US President Trump and likely also thanks to suspected buying of state backed players in China.

* The Yen declined after Trump said he will meet China’s Xi Jinping at next months G20 summit.

* Topix and Nikkei are still down -0.70% and -0.81%.

* The US Trade Representative’s office released a list of about USD 300 bln worth of Chinese goods that Trump also threatened to hit with a 25% tariff.

* European futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures ahead of the opening.

* The WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 61.15 per barrel, up from an earlier low of USD 60.73.

* German inflation lifted above 2% limit in April,largely thanks to higher energy prices, as well as the Easter effect.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD eased from near 2-week highs of 1.1263, touching 1.1218 lows before steadying. EURUSD is back under its 50-day moving average of 1.1249. Continued uncertainty on the trade front, should keep risk-appetite contained, which could see the Dollar remain firm on a flight to safety trade.

* USDJPY has dropped to 3-plus month lows of 109.09, falling 50 points. Safe-haven Yen buying ratcheted up quickly on the report, while severe risk-off conditions, seeing US equity futures plummet, and Treasury yields slide, has weighed heavily on the pairing. The January 31 low of 108.50 is the next support level.

* USOIL has given back its earlier 2% gains, trading down at $61.20. Overnight gains came following attacks on two Saudi tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, though since then, the ramped up US/China trade war has spooked oil bulls. A slowing of the two-largest economies will likely result in crude demand destruction going forward. Friday’s $60.92 lows is next Support and $60.60 (last night’s low).

Main Macro Events Today

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for March is expected to hold at 3.4%. The ILO unemployment rate (3-month) is expected to have remained at 3.9%.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for May is expected to decline to 1.0 compared to 4.5 last month.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets continued to recover during the Asian session, after a positive close on Wall Street Tuesday. Topix and Nikkei gained 0.41% and 0.45% respectively.

* Volumes were thin indicating that there is not much conviction in the recovery as investors evaluate trade developments.

* Chinese data releases from Industrial output to Retail Sales data and investment all slowed last month and together with the fallout from tariff hikes that saw markets buying into hopes of further stimulus measures in China.

* President Trump overnight called on the Fed to “match” what he said China would do to offset the economic impact of the US tariffs

* US stock futures are also moving higher.

* The AUD was pressured by the weak China data.

* The USOIL struggled with source stories saying the API will report a 8.63 million Dollar increase in US stockpiles and is trading at USD 61.38 per barrel.

* German GDP growth expanded 0.4% q/q in Q1, in line with expectations and coming back from stagnation in the last quarter of 2018. The construction and machinery investment as well as private consumption were the main drivers of growth.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD found Support into the 1.1200 level. The pair has mostly been stuck between its 20-day moving average at 1.1200 and its 50-day moving average at 1.1245 since the start of the week. A close above or below these levels may help determine direction for the remainder of the week.

* USDJPY has recovered slightly from earlier lows of 109.45, making its way to 109.67 highs so far. The rally on Wall Street, which has so far wiped out about a third of Monday’s sharp losses has provided some Support, as have steadier Treasury yields which were hammered lower yesterday as well. The uncertainty of the outcome of the US-China trade war however, will likely keep USDJPY upside limited for now.

* GBPUSD is back on a weakening path. A generally firmer dollar has seen Cable lead the way in the latest phase, with the pair printing fresh 2-week lows under 1.2910. This extends the quite-steep decline from the early May peak at 1.3176, which is the loftiest point reached over the last six weeks. As the risk of a disorderly no-deal Brexit remains a possibility, if not a probability and as the pair is a sharp decline for 8th day is a row, bearish outlook looks to hold strongly. Intraday, Cable has Resistance at 1.2928-1.1235 and Support at 1.2860 on the break of 1.2900 level.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – Eurozone prelim. Q1 GDP growth expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – We expect readings of 0.2% for April retail sales and 0.7% for ex-auto sales, following a 1.6% increase for the March headline and a 1.2% increase ex-autos. Unit vehicle sales slowed in April, and gasoline prices should continue to boost retail activity given an estimated 5.5% increase in the CPI for gasoline.


* Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian CPI is expected to slip to 0.3% from the 0.7% reading the past 2 months.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasury yields dipped -1.4 bp overnight, JGB rates are down -0.5 bp as bond markets continue to rally amid the escalating US-Sino trade spat that saw Trump targeting Chinese telecom companies.

* Reports that the US President will hold off on auto tariffs for now helped European bourses to stage a late rally Wednesday.

* The US President signed an order that is expected to restrict the likes of Huawei and ZTE Corp from selling their equipment to the US. Huawei was also put on a blacklist that could forbid it from doing business with American companies and require US companies to obtain a special licence to sell products to the company, which if enforced strictly could halt even everyday operations at the Chinese company.

* The US and European stock futures are under pressure ahead of the official open.

* US-Sino trade tensions aside Brexit developments and Italian budget jitters remain in focus amid a pretty quiet local calendar that focuses on Eurozone trade numbers as well as the final reading of Italian HICP inflation.

* The unexpected pick up in Australian unemployment fuelled speculation of a rate cut from the RBA.

* The front end WTI future is trading at $62.40 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD found Resistance at 1.1217 level for 2 consecutive days. The pair has mostly been stuck between its 20-day moving average at 1.1200 and its 50-day moving average at 1.1245 since the start of the week. A close above or below these levels may help determine direction for the remainder of the week.
* GBPUSD has extended losses which s now in its 9th consecutive down day, after it broke yesterday April’s lows. Next support for the asset is coming at January’s low Resistance at 1.2772.

Main Macro Events Today

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Both Building Permits and Housing Starts should jump in April, to a 1.215 mln pace and to 1.298 mln respectively, after a 0.3% and 0.2% decline seen in March. Overall, a stronger trajectory is expected for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasuries sold off as risk appetite soured. Wall Street posted broadbased and solid intraday gains of over 1% Thursday.

* There was good news on the data front, as well as stellar earnings news from Walmart to add to the bullish tone in equities.

* Bank of Japan governor Kuroda said the ultra-low rates may be maintained for a further period of well over a year. However, Kuroda warned against the idea of propping up the economy through unlimited money printing saying that “when a central bank monetises debt unlimitedly, it will most certainly trigger hyper-inflation and cause huge demand to the economy”.

* There were comments in China state media saying China may have no interest in continuing trade talks with the US for now.

* The Yuan fell past the psychologically important 6.9 per dollar level, something that previously had been speculated to eventually lead to the selling of Chinese Treasury holdings to prop up the currency.

* The WTI future is trading at $62.98 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Mideast continue to provide support, with the latest rally coming as Saudi Arabia blamed Iran and its proxies for attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure this week.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD fell to 8-session lows of 1.1172 at mid-morning, slipping from opening highs near 1.1210. The early round of Dollar friendly US data saw the pairing start its decent, with selling pick up some pace on the break under the 20-day MA of 1.1197. The May 7 low of 1.1167 Support was reached , however the asset manage to hold above it so far today. A break there could open the door for a test of the May 3 low of 1.1135.


* GBPUSD’s low is 1.2787 in what is now the 5th consecutive daily decline and the eighth down day out of the last nine trading days. Resistance comes in at 1.2875-78. Next Support holds at 1.2700.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for April is expected to slow down slightly, at 0.7% from 1% last month. However, the overall picture remains largely unchanged, with headline inflation remaining modest, but underlying inflation starting to firm. No reason then for the ECB to add additional stimulus measures to an already very accommodative policy stance, and “low for longer” remains the message not just from the ECB.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary May Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 97.7, up from the final April sentiment at 97.2.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th May 2019.



* Just as optimism on US growth was returning, while worries over a global slowing were easing, the spectre of a trade war is back on the table to heighten uncertainties once again. Trade will remain a focal point along with the European Parliament elections. Thursday is the most data-heavy day with European PMI releases and the the German IFO survey.

Tuesday – 21 May 2019

* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes will provide more insight on the views the Australian Central Bank has about the economy. In the past policy review earlier this month, RBA highlighted downside risks to the economy, but disappointed markets by leaving the cash rate on hold ahead of the federal elections.

* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.

* Retail Sales (NZD, GMT 22:45) – Retail Sales are expected to have slipped to 0.0% for the first Quarter of 2019, from around 1.7% q/q.

Wednesday – 22 May 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. FOMC left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.

Thursday – 23 May 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 06:00) – German Preliminary Q1 results are expected to remain unchanged, at an annualised rate of 0.6%, and at 0.4% compared to 1.1% last quarter.

* Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Composite PMIs are expected to increase in May, to 48.2 and 51.8 respectively while the Services PMI is forecast at 53.

* German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to hold steady at 99.2, after it unexpectedly declined to 99.2 in the April reading from 99.7 in March.

* European Parliamentary Elections – DAY 1

Friday – 24 May 2019

* Retail Sales and Core (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Following a correction in March, Retail Sales are expected to slip this month by -0.4% m/m from 1.1% m/m.
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are pegged at -1.8% in April, after a 2.7% figure in March. Transportation orders should be -7.2%. Boeing orders should fall to the lean 28 area from an already-low 44 in March, with a likely hit via problems with the Boeing 737 Max that may have prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments, while vehicle assemblies are seen steady from a 10.8 mln pace in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 21st May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st May 2019.



FX News Today

* 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.414$, JGB yields fell back 0.2 bp to -0.054% as BoJ Governor Kuroda warned against the fallout from escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the minutes of the last RBA meeting confirmed that Australia’s central bank is laying the ground for a rate cut in coming months.

* Stock markets moved mostly higher, with mainland China bourses outperforming and bouncing back from Monday’s lows, although the impact of the measures that cut Huawei off from vital supplies will likely to continue to impact the tech sector not just in China.

* USD got a bid -AUD (&NZD sink) on RBA comments that rate cut likely if Employment situations does not improve. (0.6875 & 0.6510) respectively. Powells speech was non-market moving.

* EUR back to 1.1150 (s) from 1.1175, JPY -110.15 – r at 110.25 (Questions over Abe’s Sales Tax) , GBP 1.2721 – (12 days down for Cable).

* GOLD Pivots around 1275 support ; OIL – back up to 63.50 from yesterday 62.50 low. R at $64.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* AUDUSD fell back under 0.6900 – 20 period moving average sits at 0.6907, S2 is next support at 0.6866. R1 and the 200-period moving average is at 0.6930-33.

* GBPUSD’s low is 1.2707 in what is now the eighth consecutive daily decline and the eleventh down day out of the last twelve trading days. Pivot point comes in at 1.2730, with support at 1.2700.

Main Macro Events Today

* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.

* US Existing Home Sales – Expected – 5.38 million, last time 5.35 million.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Comments from Fed’s Bullard that a rate cut could become an “attractive option” if inflation continues to disappoint added support to bond markets ahead of the release of the Fed minutes from the May meeting.

* Ahead of today’s Fed minutes, this helped to lift sentiment and underpin stock market sentiment, which struggled for direction amid conflicting trade headlines.

* Reports that the US administration is considering blacklisting up to 5 Chinese surveillance firms, including Hikvision added fresh concerns about a deepening of trade frictions and put pressure on tech stocks.

* The GER30 futures are heading south in tandem with US futures after a mixed session in Asia, where mainland China bourses underperformed.

* The FTSE 100 future is getting some support from a weaker pound, which is shedding the gains seen in the wake of May’s latest Brexit deal yesterday

* At the same time, China’s ambassador to the US said Beijing is ready to resume talks and ASX and Nifty 50 slightly higher.

* The WTI future meanwhile fell back to USD 62.58 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD spiked up briefly to 1.1188, just above its 20-day MA, though has now eased back under 1.1150. The Euro remains in sell the rally mode, given the Dollar’s yields advantage, and relatively better performing economy. EURUSD has posted 6-straight sessions of lower daily lows, a bearish signal, and has sights set on the May 3 bottom of 1.1135, then 2019 lows of 1.1110 seen in late April.

* XAUUSD: Renewed dollar strength, along with the return of risk-taking conditions has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. The US easing of restrictions on Huawei has helped equity sentiment, to the detriment of gold prices. Next support comes at $1,270 in the near term, then $1,267.30, , the May 2 low, then $1,258.38, the 200-day MA.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. FOMC left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd May 2019.



FX News Today

* Comments from Fed’s Bullard that a rate cut could become an “attractive option” if inflation continues to disappoint added support to bond markets ahead of the release of the Fed minutes from the May meeting.

* Ahead of today’s Fed minutes, this helped to lift sentiment and underpin stock market sentiment, which struggled for direction amid conflicting trade headlines.

* Reports that the US administration is considering blacklisting up to 5 Chinese surveillance firms, including Hikvision added fresh concerns about a deepening of trade frictions and put pressure on tech stocks.

* The GER30 futures are heading south in tandem with US futures after a mixed session in Asia, where mainland China bourses underperformed.

* The FTSE 100 future is getting some support from a weaker pound, which is shedding the gains seen in the wake of May’s latest Brexit deal yesterday

* At the same time, China’s ambassador to the US said Beijing is ready to resume talks and ASX and Nifty 50 slightly higher.

* The WTI future meanwhile fell back to USD 62.58 per barrel.


Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD spiked up briefly to 1.1188, just above its 20-day MA, though has now eased back under 1.1150. The Euro remains in sell the rally mode, given the Dollar’s yields advantage, and relatively better performing economy. EURUSD has posted 6-straight sessions of lower daily lows, a bearish signal, and has sights set on the May 3 bottom of 1.1135, then 2019 lows of 1.1110 seen in late April.

* XAUUSD: Renewed dollar strength, along with the return of risk-taking conditions has dented gold’s safe-haven appeal. The US easing of restrictions on Huawei has helped equity sentiment, to the detriment of gold prices. Next support comes at $1,270 in the near term, then $1,267.30, , the May 2 low, then $1,258.38, the 200-day MA.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to rise in April, with overall inflation expected to stand at 2.1%y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canadian sales are expected to have eased by 0.4% m/m in March, compared to 0.8% m/m in February.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) FOMC minutes, detailing the view of each of the Fed Governors and FOMC Members, shed light on their perspectives regarding the future of the US economy. FOMC left policy on hold earlier this month, and it cited solid growth, low headline and core inflation, though Powell said in his presser that the weakness was likely “transitory”.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock market sentiment stabilised during the Asian session and bargain hunting helped at least Chinese markets to recover slightly.

* Australian Dollar continuing to outperform as markets position for a rate cut from the RBA.

* US President Trump seemed to keep hopes of a trade deal alive, but it is pretty clear that any agreement is still a way off and that will likely keep market volatile for now.

* In Europe investors will be bracing for more political turmoil in the U.K., which also raises the threat of a no-deal Brexit scenario once again, and the fallout from the ongoing European Parliament elections.

* The marked widening of spreads clearly has attracted the attention of ECB officials, which are one again eagerly campaigning for more risk sharing, Eurobonds and a eurozone wide deposit insurance.

* The Oil prices have come slightly back from lows, although at currently $58.65 per barrel, the front end WTI future is heading for a sizeable weekly loss.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD spiked up from 2-year lows of 1.1200 into European open. The Euro’s new trend low, along with data misses prompted a quick and sharp short covering driven rally yesterday, which has since seen EURUSD touch highs of 1.1187. With a good number of shorts squeezed out of the market, the pair could enter a consolidative phase into the weekend.

* XAUUSD traded to 1-week highs over $1,287 yesterday, while today despite the small selling pressure it manage to hold above the $1,282 area. Safe-haven buying remains the mover, as global equities remained awash in a sea of red, largely driven by escalating trade war fears. From there, a sharp reversal lower for the Dollar added support to Gold prices. Solid resistance comes at the psychological $1,300 level.

Main Macro Events Today

* Retail Sales and Core (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Following a correction in March, Retail Sales are expected to slip this month by -0.4% m/m from 1.1% m/m.

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are pegged at -1.8% in April, after a 2.7% figure in March. Transportation orders should be -7.2%. Boeing orders should fall to the lean 28 area from an already-low 44 in March, with a likely hit via problems with the Boeing 737 Max that may have prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments, while vehicle assemblies are seen steady from a 10.8 mln pace in March.

Support and Resistance levels


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th May 2019.



* The political saga is expected to continue next week after the resignation announcement of Prime Minister May, who will step down on June 7th, after President Trump’s three-day state visit..

Tuesday – 28 May 2019

* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee. It is likely that BoE will state again that it will remain on hold now until after the Brexit D-Day.

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 130.0 in May, from 129.2 in April and a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January, versus an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

* RBNZ Financial Stability Report (NZD, GMT 20:00) – After RBNZ did the expected in March, leaving the official cash rate 1.75% following its policy review and surprised by stating “the more likely direction of our next OCR move is down.”, it is now expected to remain on the dovish side along with the rest of the central banks.

Wednesday – 29 May 2019

* Unemployment (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% in May, however the number of vacancies is expected to drop to -7k.

* Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00) – At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change. However, the abandonment of the mild tightening bias in the last meeting, opened the door to both rate hikes and rate cuts, depending on the flow of data.

Thursday – 30 May 2019

* Building Permits (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The reduction in building permits is expected to continue, while with the indicator registering an 15.5% decline in March, expectations are that the decline will stand at 14% in April.

* Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Preliminary GDP is expected to show a revised 2.9% gain in Q1, versus the 3.2% advance figure released last month, following a 2.2% growth rate in Q4.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have dropped slightly at 1.2% y/y in May. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.2% m/m in April, compared to -0.6% m/m in March, while Retail Sales are expected to have fallen by 0.8% y/y, compared to 1.0% in March.

Friday – 31 May 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The preliminary German HICP inflation for April jumped to 2.1% y/y from 1.4% y/y. However the reading for May is expected to fall back to 1.5% y/y.

* Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Q1 GDP is expected to increase to 1.2%, after it slowed to a 0.4% growth rate in Q4 from 2.0% in Q3 (q/q, saar).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th May 2019.



FX News Today

* Asian equities moved up in line with higher closes on the European markets and buoyed by the muted merger of US_Italian Fiat Chrysler and French peer Renault.

* New Zealand and Australian Dollar continues to recover, the was AUD bolstered by a rise in Iron Ore prices.

* US President Trump seemed to keep hopes of a trade deal alive, but it is pretty clear that any agreement is still a way off and that will likely keep market volatile for now.

* USD a touch firmer – EUR dips to support at 1.1180, JPY continues to pivot around 109.50 and GBP gave up 1.2700 handle and sits at 161.8 Fib level 1.2670

* Gold declined in the H1 200 ema at $1282.35, breaching the key $1285 psychological area.

* The Oil prices have breached $59.00 per barrel rising 1% on Monday on tensions in the Middle East, and OPEC-led supply cuts, capped by Russian supply coming back on stream after a contamination problem discovered last month.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD – H1 EMA crossing strategy triggered at 10:00 at 1.1204 (May 27) and has moved down to 200 EMA and S1 at 1.1181. S2 sits at 1.1170 and the daily pivot sits at 1.1198

* XAUUSD – H1 EMA crossing strategy triggered at 18:00 at 1285.12 and has run down through S1 (1283.40) to touch 200 EMA at 1282.35. S2 and lower Bollinger band $1281.75. Daily pivot at 1285.35

Main Macro Events Today

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 130.0 in May, from 129.2 in April and a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January, versus an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

* RBNZ Financial Stability Report (NZD, GMT 20:00) – After RBNZ did the expected in March, leaving the official cash rate 1.75% following its policy review and surprised by stating “the more likely direction of our next OCR move is down.”, it is now expected to remain on the dovish side along with the rest of the central banks.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th May 2019.



FX News Today

* RISK-OFF again, trade tensions, Huawei court case and weak sentiment. JPY & CHF were the main movers in the Asian session with USDJPY once again testing 109.20 and USDCHF down to 1.0060. US equities markets fell into the close (S&P down 0.84%), while Asian equities have followed lower (Nikkei down over 1%). Bonds rallied as sentiment continues to be fragile.

* USD firmer elsewhere; EURUSD dipped to 1.1160, GBPUSD breached 1.2650, and USDCAD attempted 1.3500 again, before slipping back to 1.3480. The Kiwi is firmer following the RBNZ FSR and Governor Orr’s speech, where he avoided monetary policy comments completely. The NZDUSD currently trades off overnight highs of 0.6552 at 0.6544. The AUDUSD supported by pivot point at 0.6972

* Oil prices gave up highs at $59.33 yesterday following comments by Russia that they will consider an extension of the production cap deal with OPEC – USOil currently holds $58.50. Gold, from lows at $1276 yesterday, has recovered to a key resistance at $1281.80.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD – H1 – another leg lower from 15:00 GMT yesterday R1 at 1.1185 and the 200 ema at 1.1180 are key resistance areas. Daily Pivot sits at 1.1172. RSI (35) and Stochastic (31) are weak an falling. S1 and the lower Bollinger band are at 1.1145

* GBPUSD – H1 – Under key daily pivot and 161.8 Fibonacci extension at 1.2676. 1.2650 is a key psychological level. S1 at 1.2648, the lower Bollinger band at 1.2642 and S2 1.2627 provide further support.

Main Macro Events Today

* Unemployment (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% in May, however the number of vacancies is expected to drop to -7k.

* Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00) – At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change. However, the abandonment of the mild tightening bias in the last meeting, opened the door to both rate hikes and rate cuts, depending on the flow of data.


Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2019.



FX News Today

* US equities weaker, Treasury yields fell amid flight to safety trades.The concerns that the global economy will slide back into recession amid prolonged trade tensions continue.

* Chinese media yesterday suggested that Beijing could be limiting the export of rare earths minerals used in the defence an energy sector in order to put pressure on the US only highlighted that the trade war is likely to escalate further before a deal is reached.

* Against that background US GDP numbers and tomorrow’s inflation data will remain in focus with Bloomberg highlighting that the “Fed model” suggests that there is still value in US stocks, but only if the Fed cuts rates.

* Oil prices also moved up from recent lows and the WTI future is trading at USD 59.23 per barrel.

* In Euorpe, Stock futures are also pointing to a stabilisation and a slight easing of risk aversion, with European futures moving higher in tandem with US futures. P

* olitical developments also remain in focus in Europe amid a pretty quiet data calendar, although after the French number yesterday and ahead of German HICP tomorrow, Spanish inflation data may attract some attention.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD – H1 – printed one-week lows of 1.1125, and down for the third straight day. Safe-haven flight into the Dollar has been a driver this week, Worse than expected German unemployment data, along with dovish ECB commentary on rate guidance also weighed on the Euro. Support now comes at last week’s two-year low of 1.1107.

* XAUUSD – H1 – drifted to $1,276.25 slightly below the 200-day EMA, while it remains for a third day in the lower Bollinger Bands pattern. The asset is in a descending triangle since year’s peak. Support could be found in the near term at May 22 low, at $1,272.45, a break of this level could retest year’s strong Support at $1,266.25

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Preliminary GDP is expected to show a revised 2.9% gain in Q1, versus the 3.2% advance figure released last month, following a 2.2% growth rate in Q4.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have dropped slightly at 1.2% y/y in May. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.2% m/m in April, compared to -0.6% m/m in March, while Retail Sales are expected to have fallen by 0.8% y/y, compared to 1.0% in March.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st May 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2019.



FX News Today

* Risk aversion eventually won the day on Thursday, as stocks gave back modest early gains and yields drifted lower from opening highs.

* Bonds rallied as stocks were pressured by President Trump’s announcement that Mexico will be hit by 5% tariffs that will gradually rise to 25% in a bid to curb immigration.

* The latest escalation in the global trade war, coming after China’s manufacturing PMI fell more than expected and is now in contraction territory, added to fears that the world economy is heading for recession and sparked a new rally on global bond markets that left the 10-year Treasury rate down -4.5 bp at 2.168%.

* The WTI future fell back to $55.97 per barrel following the EIA inventory data which showed a 300k bbl fall in crude stocks. The Street had been expecting a 1.0 mln bbl decrease, though the API reported a 5.3 mln bbl draw after the close on Wednesday.

* European stock futures are selling off in tandem with US futures after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight.

* Today’s data calendar will likely underpin the rally in bond markets, with preliminary German and Italian inflation data set to confirm that Eurozone HICP fell back sharply in May, thus adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB ahead of next week’s council meeting.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDCAD – H1 – found support under 1.3490 early in the session, later bouncing to 1.3547 highs (Wednesday’s post-BoC high) as Oil prices fell to fresh 2-plus month lows. WTI crude bottomed at $56.78, down from opening highs near $59.20. Year’s high at 1.3660-1.3664 is now the next Resistance level, with Support now at 1.3481, which was yesterday’s low.

* USDJPY – H1 – ran out of steam over 109.90. The pairing has since fallen back under 109.00, taking its cue from Wall Street, which has about squandered all of its earlier gains. The usual talk of Japan exporter offers from the 110.00 mark has been heard, which could have prompted some position squaring ahead of the level. In the bigger picture, trade wars and general risk-off conditions will likely limit further gains going forward. Next Support area between 108.00-108.50.

Main Macro Events Today

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The preliminary German HICP inflation for April jumped to 2.1% y/y from 1.4% y/y. However the reading for May is expected to fall back to 1.5% y/y.

* Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 12:30) – The April income/consumption report is expected at 0.3% in income. It is also projected to show a 0.3% increase in the PCE chain price index versus a prior 0.2% gain, as well as a 0.2% rise in the core versus unchanged previously. Such gains won’t cause a ripple at the Fed as annual rates remain well below the Fed’s 2% target.

* Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Q1 GDP is expected to increase to 1.2%, after it slowed to a 0.4% growth rate in Q4 from 2.0% in Q3 (q/q, saar).

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd June 2019.



* Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1 GDP.

Monday – 03 June 2019

* Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slip into the neutral zone in May, after the weak Manufacturing PMI signalled contraction yesterday.

* ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 53.5 in May from 52.8 in April, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.

Tuesday – 04 June 2019

* Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in April, after drifting to 0.3% increase in March from the 0.9% high in February.

* Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –A 25 bp reduction to 1.25% is anticipated from the current 1.50% rate setting as the RBA adds accommodation amid a slowing economy and low inflation. The minutes from the early May policy review were dovish-leaning, adding to the expectation that rates will be reduced in June.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.

* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT N/A)

Wednesday – 05 June 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Gross Domestic Product figure is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. The final Q1 Australian GDP is expected to grow to 0.3% from 0.2%.

* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to edge up to 55.7 in April from a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.

Thursday – 06 June 2019

* Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. The details on the new TLTRO programme are also due to be released and are likely to be generous, but rate tiering doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for now, as the assessment of the possible side effects on negative interest rates continues.

Friday – 07 June 2019

* Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.

* Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Risk aversion continues to prevail as US Treasuries, JPY , CHF and Gold remain in Bid mode

* Treasury yields did come off highs and the 10-year yield backed up 2.9 bps to 2.100%, after risk aversion and comments from Fed’s Bullard, who said a rate cut may be “warranted soon”, underpinned rate cut speculation and fresh gains in Treasuries yesterday.

* The RBA cut rates to record lows, as expected. The latter helped the ASX to outperform in Asia and move up 0.25%, but elsewhere stock markets were remained under pressure during the Asian, after the NASDAQ closed with a loss of -1.6% yesterday amid selling in the likes of Facebook and Amazon, with speculation of antitrust probes after the US Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission agreed to split up oversight of tech giants.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDAUD – H1 – Ran out of steam at 0.6990, but remains over daily pivot at 0.6960 and trades at 0.6982 as USD continues to soften into European session. R1 and the psychological 0.7000 next key resistance. R2 at 0.7015 would need a significant deterioration in USD today.

* USDJPY – H1 – Keeps the bid as 108.00 handle is breached once more. S1 sits at 107.80, S2 at 107.56 and S3 at 107.24. Pivot Point and 20 period moving average at 108.10, R1 at 108.37 and R2 108.68. RSI remains north of OS at 34.7, Stochastics in OS zone all of Asian session and remain there. Lower Bollinger band 107.65.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.

* RBA Chair Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 09:30) – Due to speak at the RBA Dinner following today’s meeting – Q&A expected.

* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 13:55) – Due to speak in Chicago about Federal Reserve’s policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets struggled during the Asian session, with mainland China bourses underperforming.

* Discussions between the US and Mexico ended without a breakthrough last night, which capped risk appetite, and stock markets struggled for direction during the Asian session.

* GER30 futures as well as US futures are also slightly in the red, despite better than expected German manufacturing data at the start of the session.

* German orders data better than expected, with manufacturing orders rising 0.3% m/m in April, while March data was revised up to 0.8% m/m from the 0.6% m/m reported initially. Still, a better than expected number, although the German manufacturing PMI is still firmly stuck in contraction territory and a real rebound doesn’t seem to be in sight.

* The WTI future remains pressured by EIA inventory data yesterday, but has come up to now $51.71 per barrel, after falling to a low of $57.20 in the wake of the report yesterday.

* Geopolitical trade tensions continue to provide a risk backdrop that is keeping bond markets underpinned amid growing conviction of additional central bank support.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* NZDUSD & NZDJPY – were the biggest movers and shakers yesterday in the forex markets, with the pairing and cross showing respective 0.6% and 0.7% gains at prevailing levels, with both modestly off highs. The outperformance of the Kiwi dollar, with buying having been catalyzed by RBNZ assistant governor, Hawkesby, vaulted the pair to a 4-week high at 0.7007. Overnight the pair turned lower to 0.6610, However however this could be a correction of the overbought asset. The overall outlook remains bullish as the asset extends Bollingers to the upside.


* USDJPY – H1 – fell to 108.04 overnight, while the pair has since rebounded to 108.15 ahead of then London open. Given the slide in Treasury yields however, further upside for the pairing is likely to be limited. The next support level comes at the January 10 low of 107.77.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final Q1 results in the Eurozone are expected to remain unchanged, at an annualised rate of 1.2%, and at 0.4% in quarterly basis.

* Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020.

* Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen slightly in April to -$50.6 bln from -$50.0 bln in March.

* Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) Initial jobless claims for the week of May 31 are estimated to fall to 213k, after a 3k rise to 215k in the week of May 25.about Federal Reserve’s policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets traded mixed in Asia, with Chinese markets underperforming, ahead of key US jobs data today.

* Hopes that Mexico tariffs may be postponed helped Wall Street to close higher, but Vice President Pence said the US still plans to impose tariffs on Mexico next week ahead of further talks today.

* China’s central bank head sounded relaxed on the Yuan, but stressed that the PBOC still had lots of policy room if the trade war worsens.

* CSI and Shanghai Comp still lost -0.9% and -1.2% respectively and the tech heavy Shenzen Comp fell back more than 2% as Facebook announced that it will no longer preinstall its app on Huawei phones, spelling more trouble for the beleaguered tech company.

* US Stock futures around 0.1% higher and the WTI future continued to climb up from the lows seen in the wake of EIA data Wednesday and is now trading at $53.28 per barrel.

* Ahead of EU open, German trade surplus narrowed as exports slumped, while German industrial production corrected -1.9% m/m in April.

* European stock futures are moving higher, led by a 0.6% rise in the DAX futures, which also ignored the weak April numbers

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD – has been consolidating in a narrow range in the mid 1.1200s, consolidating the steep losses from 1.1306 that were seen during the London PM/NY morning session yesterday. It is expected that the Dollar would likely hold up better than the Euro in the scenario that further sustained bouts of risk aversion is seen in global markets in the months ahead, with US Treasuries offering the highest risk-free return around, regardless of prevailing market discounting of Fed rate cuts. The pair remains in a bear trend which has been evolving since early 2018. This was reaffirmed by the new two-year low that was printed last month at 1.1107. Resistance comes in at 1.1300-06 and 1.1323-25.

Main Macro Events Today

* Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.

* Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th June 2019.



* Moving into a new week, the focus is now squarely on the UK mess and the Conservative Party’s leadership contest. Market attention is also honed in on the G20 meeting but also on the US economic data which will be scrutinized for any sign that trade uncertainties are impacting amid a slowing in economic growth.

Monday – 10 June 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (JPY, Sunday GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have increased by 0.4% in the first quarter, slightly lower than last time, reflecting weaker than expected household spending. The annualised outcome is seen at 1.8% after the stronger than expected 2.1% growth.

* Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 02:00) – May’s exports are anticipated to contract to 3.8% y/y, from the 2.7% y/y. The trade balance should grow to $20.5bln in May from $13.83B in March. This report will be consistent with ongoing slowing in China’s domestic economy (falling imports) and the impact of the trade war with the US (drop in exports).

* Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The two indices are expected to have fallen back to 0.1% m/m and 0.2% m/m in April, confirming that the sector is back in contraction.

Tuesday – 11 June 2019

* Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March.

* ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.

Wednesday – 12 June 2019

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – May’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 2.7% y/y following the rise of 2.5% y/y in April.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May.

Thursday – 13 June 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.1% in May, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 14K compared to 28.4K last month.

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation fell back in April to 1.3% y/y from 2.1% y/y. In May however, it is expected to rise to 2.1% y/y again.

* SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact.

Friday – 14 June 2019

* Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session, once again led by China after the US-Mexico deal also revived hopes of a US-Sino deal, despite Trump’s comments.

* President Trump: China deal is going to work out; but no deal means more tariffs.He said that he is ready to impose another round of tariffs on Chinese imports if there is no progress in talks with China’s President at the June 28-29 G20 summit.

* The expectations that China will ramp up stimulus programs to boost the flagging economy were boosted by news that China will allow local government to use proceeds from special bonds as capital for major investment projects.

* European stock futures are also moving higher as are US futures.

* US futures are up 0.3-0.4% and the WTI future is trading at $53.74 per barrel.

* The yen crosses lifted higher as the Japanese currency lost ground as the relief rally on easing trade tensions in equity markets continued.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY lifted by over 30 pips in the hours after the Tokyo fixing today. USDJPY printed an intraday high at 108.64, but has so far remained shy of yesterday’s 11-day peak at 108.71. This week it has breached above its prior-week peak for only the second time out of the last 7 weeks. The pair could continue to hold a better footing for now, especially with the planned meeting between top-level US and Chinese officials at the upcoming G20 serving to arrest what had started seem an irrevocable downward spiral in relations between Washington and Beijing. It has support 108.32-35, and resistance at 108.91-94.

* EURUSD moved back above the 1.1300 mark, though well under Friday’s near 3-month high of 1.1347. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with resistance at Friday’s high, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367.

* Gold Futures retreated from Friday’s near 4-month high of $1,347.70, falling to $1,325. The moderate sell-off was driven by the return of risk-on conditions. The news that the US would not impose tariffs on Mexican goods helped the Dollar recover and saw yields and equity markets move higher, all gold-negatives.

Main Macro Events Today

* Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March.

* ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.

* Producer Price Index ex Food & energy (USD, GMT 12:30) – A flat rate is anticipated for headline PPI in May, and a 0.2% rise in the core index.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Market sentiment turned cautious again ahead of the G-20 summit.

* Bund yields declined from the off, as Treasuries rallied following President Trump’s criticism.

* President Trump said it is he who is holding up the China trade deal until the country returns to agreed terms. He also stepped up his criticism of the Fed, saying rates are “way too high“.

* He also stated that the EUR and other currencies devalued against the Dollar.

* Stock market sentiment turned cautious again and Asian markets are mostly in the red, as are European and US futures.

* This underpinned Treasury yields and saw yields coming down again. A -1.74% decline in the Hang Seng led broad losses in Asian stock markets, amid protests in the city and signs of rising funding costs.

* The WTI future fell back below the $53 per barrel market.

* The European data calendar is focusing on UK inflation numbers and ECB’s Draghi is set to speak amid signs that council members are split on the assessment of inflation expectations.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD is trading at 1.335 maintained a narrow trading band, with the Dollar overall largely in a holding pattern, following fairly steep losses seen over the past week or so. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with Resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1347, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367.

Main Macro Events Today

* ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 08:15)

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasury yields have fallen back -1.2 bp to 2.108%, as weaker than expected CPI numbers out of the U.S. yesterday adding to speculation of rate cuts in the US.

* Fed funds futures price in about 80% chance for rate cut by by end of July.

* Asian bond markets were mostly supported, although JGBs corrected and the 10-year yield moved up 0.5 bp to -0.118% as a stronger Yen curbed investor appetite for Japanese assets.

* Stock markets mostly remained under pressure in Asia, with the Hang Seng declining -0.79% as large political demonstrations continue to unsettle investors.

* In Europe German HICP for May was confirmed at just 1.3% y/y this morning, which together with the decline in market based indicators for inflation expectations will also keep easing speculation alive as stock markets remain weighed down by geopolitical trade jitters.

* Oil prices continued to decline, with trade jitters continuing to weigh on sentiment and the WTI future is currently trading at USD 51.43 per barrel, up from yesterday’s lows, following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* WTI crude fell at $50.70 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 0.5 mln bbl decrease, though the API revealed a 4.9 mln bbl build after the close on Tuesday. Overall, a fairly bearish report, which added further pressure on the USOIL downtrend. In the near-term the outlook remains bearish as well, while only a break above 52.80 could suggest a short term reversal to the upside.

Main Macro Events Today

* SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact.

* Unemployment Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of June 7 are estimated to fall to 217k, after holding at 218k in the week of June 1.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Tense geopolitical events in the Mid East injected some risk in the market, providing a boost to bonds after reports surfaced overnight that two oil tanker were damaged off the coast of Iran.

* Stock markets traded mixed in Asia with Hong Kong and China bourses under-performing.

* Australian yields marked new record lows amid concern that geopolitical trade tensions will hit global growth and prompt central banks to step up easing measures.

* The FTSE 100 future is posting fractional gains as Brexit supporter Boris Johnson emerges as the clear favorite to win the leadership contest in the conservative party and succeed Teresa May.

* Investors await data releases that are expected to show ongoing weakness in the economy.

* The WTI future is at USD 52.16 per barrel after yesterday’s attacks.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD headed to 1-week lows of 1.1269 at mid-morning, and it is now traded higher at 1.1277 area. Trade this week has been centered on the 1.1300 mark, and further consolidation is expected ahead of next week’s FOMC policy announcement. There is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is expected to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters. Until then, EURUSD can be expected to remain between its 50-day moving average at 1.1219, and its 200-day moving average at 1.1363.

* USDJPY has been rangebound,topping at 108.53 before later ebbing back to 108.23 lows. Treasury yields however, continue under pressure following benign CPI on Wednesday, and soft import prices early on Thursday, putting some pressure on the Dollar. As a result, USDJPY has been nearly static. Further consolidation is expected into next Week’s Fed policy announcement.

Main Macro Events Today

* Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April.

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th June 2019.



* A policy-packed week, with monetary policy meetings in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In the UK, the voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. On the data front, focus turns on inflation and Retail sales.

Monday – 17 June 2019

* Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BoE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.

Tuesday – 18 June 2019

* RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth and inflation).

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook.

Wednesday – 19 June 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures.

* Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters.

* Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.

Thursday – 20 June 2019

* Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”.

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

Friday – 21 June 2019

* Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.


* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.


* Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Wall Street was managed modest gains, supported by a better than 1% rise in industrials which offset a drop in materials. The markets generally shrugged off a sharp drop in the Empire State manufacturing index and a weaker than expected NAHB housing market index.

* Asia stock market gains were capped by caution ahead of the Fed meeting.

* Topix and Nikkei lost -0.88% and -0.81% respectively as the Yen strengthened, the Hang Seng continued to recover and moved up 0.70% after being pressured by political protests last week.

* The ASX gained 0.54% after getting cut a boost from RBA meeeting minutes signaling another rate cut could be underway.

* GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed.

* US futures are slightly in the red.

* Speculation that the Fed will signal rate cuts is mounting and in Europe ECB officials seem to be readying further easing measures, while the BoE is widely expected to remain on hold amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* AUDUSD also fell to a 5-month low, at 0.6833. The underperformance of the Australian follow was catalyzed by the release of the RBA minutes to the June policy meeting, which saw the central bank cut its cash rate to a record low of 1.25%. The minutes showed that the RBA is of a mind to ease policy again, as soon as July, given prevailing concerns about unemployment and disinflation. AUDJPY pegged below 3-year lows at 74.50, hence next Support is at June 2016 low at 72.40 .

* GBPJPY has hit fresh lows, and the yen has remained bid amid a backdrop of continued sputtering in global stock markets. GBPJPY daily volatility has fallen from 140 pips in February to less than 120 today. Key Support levels for both pairs sit at 133.80 and 132.30 respectively.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook.

* BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:00)

* ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 14:00)

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Expectations that global central banks will add further stimulus to underpin the global economy and fresh hopes that global trade tensions will be resolved through talks after all underpinned stock markets during the Asian session.

* US President Trump tweeted yesterday that he will meet China’s President Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting, which helped to lift CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 1.96% and 1.50% respectively.

* Bond markets closed below highs yesterday and the gains are likely to erode further today as the focus shifts to the FOMC announcement.

* GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly in the red with profit taking and renewed caution capping the room for further gains.

* German PPI data at the start of the session came in lower than anticipated.

* The WTI future benefited from fresh trade talk hopes and is trading marginally above the USD 54 per barrel mark.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY has drifted moderately lower, to levels around 108.26. The dip reflects a pick up in demand for the Yen. Overall, directional impulse has been limited in forex markets with participants hunkered down ahead of the Fed policy announcement later on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the Fed, where there is risk of disappointment given the level of expectation for a strong dovish guidance. USDJPY is presently sitting near the midway of a choppy sideways range that’s been unfolding for nearly 3 weeks now. The range over this time has been 107.81 – 108.80. Support comes in at 108.00-06.

* USDCAD – The Canadian dollar, buoyed by a 4.5%-plus rally in Oil prices over the last day, has seen some moderate outperformance, which has taken USDCAD to a 3-session low at 1.3365. Underpinning Oil prices (aside from Mideast geopolitics) and equity markets have been hopes for a strongly dovish signal from the Fed today, yesterday’s dovish shift by the ECB chief, and news that President Trump will be meeting with President Xi at the upcoming G20, and that ministerial-level trade negotiations will be recommencing. For the pair, Support holds at 1.3354 and 1.3336, while Resistance is at 1.3390-1.3400.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures.

* Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters.

* Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets continued to rally in Asia, underpinned by hopes of further easing and progress on the trade front at the G-20 meeting and European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures.

* The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, but highlighted downside risks, especially for overseas economies.

* Hopes of further central bank stimulus and progress on the trade front at the G20 meeting meanwhile are keeping stock markets underpinned and Nikkei and Topix moved up 0.32% and 0.64% respectively.

* The Dollar has rotated lower after the Fed.

* FOMC held rates steady as expected, but shifted to an unambiguously dovish gear, noting that “uncertainties about this outlook have increased” while issuing a larger than expected downgrade in the dots as Chairman Powell refrained from using “transitory” to describe low inflation, marking a downshift in the inflation view.

* Some follow-through Dollar selling looks likely even in the London interbank market though increasingly dovish arguments at the ECB and other major central banks should curtail the US currency’s downside potential.

* The WTI future is 54.67 trading at USD 54.57 per barrel.

* In Europe, the BoE is also widely expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged, but markets will be looking for signs that the BoE will at least drop the tightening bias as the global backdrop deteriorates

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD printed 1.1283 highs, up from opening lows of 1.1225. The modest rally has been attributed to position adjustments ahead and post the FOMC announcement. Next Resistance for the asset holdws at 1.1288 and the round 1.1300. Support is set at 1.1245-1.1254.

* USDCAD – The Canadian Dollar, was the biggest mover, dropping by nearly 1% in making a four-month low at 1.3223. A strong rally in oil prices has catalysed a strong bid for the Canadian dollar. The WTI crude prices are up by nearly 3% since the Fed’s announcement, and are up by 5.7% from week-ago levels. Hence since the pair has broke the Support at Friday’s low ,the strong bullish mix of developments for CAD, opens the doors towards February-March lows, between the 1.3060-1.3140 area. Immediate Support meanwhile, is set at the round 1.3200 level.

Main Macro Events Today

* Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK sales are expected to slip -0.5% in May, with a big yearly slip at 2.7%, following a 5.2% figure for the April.

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.

* Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to fall to 12.0 in June from 17.8 in May, versus a 2-year low of 3.7 in March. The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 11.0 in June from 16.6 in May, versus a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 21st June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st June 2019.



FX News Today

* Thursday’s rally on Wall Street failed to boost Asian markets, which struggled as the impact of easing hopes following dovish comments from Fed, BoJ and ECB faded and trade angst returned.

* US-Iran tensions also weighed on sentiment. The New York Times reported that US President Trump had actually approved military strikes after Iran shot down a US military drone, but pulled back from launching the attacks.

* The Nikkei fell back -0.8%, although the Shanghai Comp still managed a gain of 0.5% amid lingering hopes of progress on US-Sino trade talks ahead of the leaders meeting at the sidelines of the G-20 meeting next week.

* The USA500 managed a record high yesterday as markets position for rate cuts, but US futures are slightly in the red after a cautious session in Asia and GER30 futures are also down.
Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USOIL advanced as much as 6%, up over $3, at June highs of $57.37. The downing of a US drone in the Persian Gulf got the rally rolling, with gains since coming following a Trump tweet, which just said “Iran made a very big mistake!”Following the tweet, prices moved up from near $56.20 to session highs. Immediate Support today hold at $56.00, while on the break of it 55.20 could be retested. On the flipside, Resistance $58.50-59.00 as stated in our post yesterday.

* Cable has lost upside traction, with the pair having settled 25-35 pips below the highs. The BoE trimmed its Q2 GDP growth estimate to 0.0% q/q from 0.2% while stating that inflation remains well anchored. Cable earlier printed an 8-day high at 1.2727. The Pound has fared less well against the Euro, losing ground today against the common currency. The UK currency has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, and this is not expected to change. Cable has resistance at 1.2730 and Support at 1.2665.

Main Macro Events Today

* Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.

* Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.

* Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.



* Last week of June ahead, with a caution turning into Osaka G20 meeting and the coveted Trump-Xi meeting. Market attention is also honed in on any trade escalations but also on next week’s inflation data which could have an impact on ECB’s next move.

Monday – 24 June 2019

* German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – June German IFO business confidence is expected to hold at 97.3, after it unexpectedly fell back to 97.9 in May from 99.2.

* Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $5.32 billion in May, compared to $5.48 billion in April.

Tuesday – 25 June 2019

* OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)

Wednesday – 26 June 2019

* Interest rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – RBNZ held rates steady at 1.75% in May, and this is expected to remain the case again in next week’s meeting. As Orr stated “We expect to keep the OCR at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time.” So no change in the rate setting is anticipated into 2019.

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.

Thursday – 27 June 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.

* US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.

Friday – 28 June 2019

* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

* US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.

* Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasury yields extended declines in a quiet and cautious Monday action.

* The front end and belly of the curve mostly led the way on safe haven flows and as the FOMC’s more dovish than expected twist last Wednesday continued to support.

* Equities were little changed after a narrow, range bound trade.

* Tensions with Iran continued to drive cash into the safety of Treasuries, especially after President Trump announced he was placing more sanctions against its supreme leader and other top Iran officials has closed the path to a diplomatic solution (on the Ayatollah Khamenei, personally).

* US futures are down -0.2-0.5% as traders await Powell’s speech today.

* TheWTI future saw a high of $57.98 per barrel before pulling back slightly to now $57.45.

* Wall Street was in a more wait-and-see mode on the geopolitical risks, and as global markets await the U.S.-China trade talks at the G20 later in the week.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD printed fresh 3-month highs just over 1.1411, up from 1.1380 lows at the open. The Euro moved to session highs after the weaker Dallas Fed index. The pairing ran into sellers at 1.1400, seeing a pullback to 1.1386 lows. Prospects for a July Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the Dollar, though soft EU data are likely to push the ECB toward further stimulus over the next few months, largely offsetting potential Fed policy easing. The March 20 high of 1.1448 is the next resistance level.

* Gold has printed five-plus year highs of $1,439.11, up from opening lows of $1,418.17. US/Iran tensions, along with potential for a Fed rate cut in July, and a weaker Dollar have all combined to put a bid under gold prices. The contract can be expected to remain in buy-the-dip mode for the foreseeable future, and continue to benefit from safe-haven flows on any fresh clashes in the Mideast.

Main Macro Events Today

* NO OPEC Meeting in June –The dates of the separate OPEC ministerial meeting and of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, have been changed to July 1-2, from June 25-26.

* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.

* Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th June 2019.



FX News Today

* A less than dovish comment from Fed dove Bullard, with the Chairman Powell soothed a bit, and along with the usual trade uncertainty and US-Iran concerns, all combined with softer US data to take Wall Street and Treasury yields lower overnight.

* Hence in Asia session, the rally on bond markets run out of steam and stocks struggled as optimism on an immediate rate cut from the Fed and a breakthrough in US-Sino trade talk fades.

* Fed Chair Powell repeated the phrase the Fed is “closely monitoring“. He highlighted downside risks to the economy again, but didn’t go beyond last week’s guidance on rates.

* Presidents Trump and Xi are likely to meet on Saturday, where they may agree to reopen trade talks.

* Source stories meanwhile suggest that the US is willing to suspend the next round of China tariffs if trade talks resume, but Trump and Xi Jinping are not expected to agree on a detailed trade deal at the G-20 meeting.

* Against that background stock markets struggled during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.71% and -0.70% respectively

* The RBNZ kept rates at record lows, but said further cuts may be needed.

* The WTI future is trading at $59.10 per barrel amid US-Iran tensions.

* German consumer confidence deteriorates. It fell back to 9.8 in the advance July reading. This is the lowest number since April 2017.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURCHF has found a footing into 1.10 area after coming under significant pressure last week, in the wake of ECB President Draghi’s eyebrow raising dovish shift, which has been the most notable of a growing chorus of dovish voices on the central bank’s governing council. Assuming the ECB remains on the path of further monetary policy easing ,the EURCHF is expected to retain a declining bias. The SNB’s -0.75% deposit rate and threat of tactical intervention hasn’t been sufficient to arrest recent appreciation of the Franc.

Main Macro Events Today

* ECB’s Mersch speech (EUR, GMT 08:00)

* BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 09:00)

* Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Treasuries were weaker Wednesday after a poorly subscribed 5-year auction, while aggressive Fed rate cut expectations continued to be priced out.

* Also other bond markets in Asia, which were under pressure as stocks moved higher.

* Markets are pinning their hopes on Saturday’s meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the side-lines of the G-20 meeting with reports that the U. is willing to hold off further tariffs for now helping to bolster confidence.

* At the same time, President Trump threatened additional China tariffs if there is no agreement.

* Still, without a firm and formal agreement in place risks of set backs remain high, especially as US.-Iran tensions and in Europe no-deal Brexit scenarios provide a risky backdrop.

* European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after broad gains in Asia.

* WTI crude surged to 4-week highs on API data showing big US inventory drop.

* USD is trading mixed today after rallying Tuesday on Fed’s walk back of dovish guidance.

* JPY down, Dollar bloc currencies up quite sharply on US-China optimism.

* GBP is underperforming again on persisting Brexit related demand-supply imbalance.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD rallied to 1.1391 highs, after bouncing from the session low at 1.1348, which is also the 200-day moving average. The pairing has since run into sellers in front of the 1.1400 mark, settling in under 1.1360. Softer US data weighed on the Dollar, though Fed Chair Powell’s more neutral stance on policy may tone down market’s aggressive easing potential, likely to limit EUR gains going forward. In addition, increasing prospects for further ECB easing should also keep a cap on EURUSD.

* AUDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising about 0.5% in printing a 16-day high at 75.62. The Yen weaken as markets opted for risk-on positioning ahead of the G20 summit. USDJPY posted an eight-day high at 108.13. This price action came as Chinese markets led broader gains across Asian stock markets, which propelled the MSCI Asia-Pacific index up by 0.6%. Meanwhile, as AUDJPY seems overbought outside from upper Bollinger Bands pattern, Some correction could be seen with immediate Support at 75.33. Resistance holds at 75.67 and 75.80.

Main Macro Events Today

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.

* US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.

* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th June 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets headed south during the Asian session.

* Trade headlines continue to drive market sentiment and fresh doubts that there will be a breakthrough on the trade front at the highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping saw investors heading for cover again.

* Trump repeated threats of more tariffs and with global equities still more than 5% higher on the month, the risk of disappointment is capping markets for now.

* If there are at least further negotiations and central banks remain on course to add more stimulus, it should be a constructive start to the second half of the year.
Topix and JP225 lost -0.25% and -0.50% respectively so far.

* US futures are trading narrowly mixed, with American lenders gaining overnight after announcing share buybacks in the wake of annual Fed stress tests.

* The WTI future is at $59.19 per barrel after seeing a high of $59.54 overnight.

* In Europe, peripheral markets are outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing as a sharp drop in German import price inflation at the start of the session added to pressure on the ECB to implement further easing.

* Eurozone stock futures are narrowly mixed.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* BTCUSD retreated further overnight, with the contract bottoming at $10,228.24, down from Wednesday highs of $13,821. This sell off has been measured as a 25% plunged. The sell off started on the failure of Coinbase website. Technically, the decline came after the asset reached the 61.8% retracement level from year’s high, while it is currently retesting the 50% Fib. level. Hence as the asset was overbought such a correction is technically acceptable. If the pair manages to sustain a move above the 38.2% Fib level along with a move above the midpoint from this week’s decline (i.e. 12000.00), could spread hopes for another attempt higher again.

* USDJPY fell briefly under 107.70. Word that China would require preconditions for the talks weighed the pairing down, though moved off its lows as NEC chief Kudlow said there were no pre-conditions to the talks. Wall Street gains limited the pairing’s losses, though soft Treasury yields put a cap on USDJPY. Resistance is now at the 20-day moving average of 108.08, with Support at the overnight low of 107.55.

Main Macro Events Today

* Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.

* US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.

* Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.



* An important week is coming up as we will have an outcome of the well anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, while finally the 1st and 2nd of July will see OPEC+ members meet in Vienna. In addition, NFPs will be out on Friday and a broad range of PMIs and other early indicators are expected during the week.

Monday – 01 July 2019

* OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.

* Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to hold into the neutral zone in June.

* Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR and GBP, GMT 07:55-08:30) – In June, the German PMI is expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, while UK PMI is seen strengthening at 52.0 from 49.4 last month.

* ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 51.5 in June from 52.1 in May, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.

Tuesday – 02 July 2019

* Interest rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 bp to 1.00%. The CPI y/y rate came in at 1.3% from 1.8%, as the RBA targets underlying CPI at 2%-3%. The RBA stated this month that a rate cut “would be appropriate” should inflation remain weak. Australian OIS pricing is fully discounting a cut in the cash rate. Nevertheless, the Australian economy remains the most exposed developed-nation economy to China.


Wednesday – 02 July 2019

* United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT

* ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.

* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.

Thursday – 04 July 2019

* United States – Independence Day

* Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 0.2% for May, after falling to -0.1% last month.

Friday – 05 July 2019

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.

* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd July 2019.



FX News Today

* Australia’s 10-year rate fell -2.7 bp, as the RBA slashed the cash rate by 25 bps to a record low of 1.00%, citing the slowdown in global trade.

* US President Trump may have signalled that talks with China have already restarted, but the US reportedly also expanded a list of European products that may get hit with tariffs, which highlights that the restart of US-Sino trade talks doesn’t mark the end of global trade tensions.

* Stock markets already turned cautious again in Asian trade.

* US futures are marginally higher and the WTI future is trading at $59.13 per barrel.

* European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after a lacklustre session in Asia.

* Meanwhile weaker than expected German retail sales at the start of the session confirmed that the weakness in the manufacturing sector is spreading to the rest of the economy, which will keep the ECB on course for further easing.

* EU leaders will meet again to resume discussion on the next president of the European Commission and other top posts that will become vacant this year, including the ECB presidency.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* AUDUSD jumped to 0.6985 at the Asia session amid the RBA announcement, after the decline seen yesterday on Dollar strength. The asset manage to held above 20- and 50-day SMA. A trade above 0.7000 which is the midpoint on yesterday’s decline could suggest further upside path for AUDUSD. Support comes at 2-day low, at 0.6955. A shift back to the latter could open the doors towards June’s values.

* EURUSD faded to 7-session lows of 1.1275, down from the 1.1360 highs seen ahead of the NY open. Weaker European PMI data, along with more dovish ECBspeak, saw sentiment toward the Euro soured some. For the USD side of the equation, markets have toned down their Fed rate cut expectations, leaving the odds of a 50 bp cut in July a long shot. As a result, the Dollar has posted gains, helped by the trade truce agreed over the weekend. There are still likely to be further trade fireworks going forward, but as long as the US economy continues to outperform rivals, USD downside should be limited going forward.20-day moving average of 108.08, with Support at the overnight low of 107.55.

Main Macro Events Today

* Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) –The June construction PMI is seen rebounding to 49.4 after 48.6 in May.

* Manufacturing PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Canada is expected to come out at about 49.0 in June,slightly below the 49.1 in May.

* BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:05)

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock market sentiment turned cautious again during the Asian session.

* EU leaders formally nominate IMF head Lagarde to head the ECB and replace Mario Draghi. Lagarde, is clearly a much more dovish option in comparison to Weidmann, who has been the leader of the hawks on the council.

* Lagarde’s nomination was enough for investors to price in even more easing and asset purchases, despite the fact that a Bloomberg report suggested that the majority of policy makers are not ready to make a more in July and prefer to wait for the updated forecasts in September. EGB futures have extended gains on the news.

* BoE’s Carney flags downside risks from trade. The BoE head repeated that the central bank sees the need for rate hikes if Brexit is smooth, he added that markets are giving more weight to a no deal scenario and that the BoE will reassess Brexit and trade risks at the August meeting.

* The US’ threat of additional tariffs on European goods highlighted that geopolitical trade tensions are far from over.

* The private China services PMI slowed to a four month low in June, adding to signs that much of the damage has already been done.

* Nikkei and Hang Seng lost -0.72% and -0.26% respectively and the Shanghai Comp is down -0.86%.

* President Trump plans to nominate Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton to the Fed Board of Governors to fill the two vacancies.

* GER30 and UK100 futures are currently posting slight gains, underpinned also by easing hopes, while U.S. futures are in the red, after a largely weaker close in Asia.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY has come under some pressure, dropping to 107.52. Modest risk-off conditions have weighed, while the sentiment boost seen after the US/China trade truce appears to have worn off, leaving the reality that it may well be quite some time before agreements are made, and tariffs come off. Until some progress is made, it appears USDJPY upside will be limited.

* XAUUSD rallied to 1437.68 high,, underpinned by easing hopes and by geopolitical trade tensions which clearly are far from over. AMid EU open Gold reversed slightly lower to 1421 area and it is currently consolidating above it. Support holds at 1421, 1413 and 1407.55. Resistance levels come at 1428.55, 1431.80 and 1440.

Main Macro Events Today

* United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT

* Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) –The June Services PMI is seen stable at 51 m/m.

* Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – It is expected to widen in May to -$54.6 bln (median -$53.5 bln) from -$50.8 bln in April.

* ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.

* ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2019.



FX News Today

* 10-year Treasury yields closed at 1.950% and the Dow lifted to record highs ahead of today’s holiday in the US, as investors priced in deep central bank easing.

* In Europe, Bund yields are holding steady around -0.39% in opening trade, and Italian yields in particular continue to slide, as investors buy into hopes that under Lagarde’s helm the ECB will take a more benign view on deficit spending and implement further easing to support struggling economies.

* US President Trump once again accused China and Eurozone of currency manipulation and stock markets turned more cautious during the Asian session amid lingering trade concerns and with trading volumes below average as investors wait for the key US jobs report on Friday.

* European stock futures are slightly higher, while US futures are marginally in the red.

* The WTI future is trading at $56.85 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* USDJPY recovered from post-ADP lows of 107.58, bouncing to 107.82 highs, after failing to test the overnight 6-session low of 107.54. Soft Treasury yields (10-year at 1.95%) have limited upside for the pairing, though another Wall Street rally should contain losses. Activity is likely to wind down early today, as many make their way out the door on today’s Independence Day holiday.

* AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar has outperformed for a second day, presently near highs with a 0.6% gain versus the US buck and a 0.8% advance against the pound, which is the weakest of the main currencies on the day so far. AUD-USD posted a 57-day at 0.7047, extending gains seen from yesterday’s at 0.6956, seen in the immediate wake of the RBA’s rate cut. Markets had mostly priced-in the move, with Aussie money markets having factored in 85% odds for it. Given this, along with some cautiously upbeat remarks on the outlook in RBA Governor Lowe’s statement, and the thawing in US-China tensions, the scene was set for a rally in the Australian Dollar. AUDUSD has support at 0.7017-20.

Main Macro Events Today

* United States – Independence Day

* Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 1.6% for May, after the 1.5% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th July 2019.



FX News Today

* Stock markets are little changed and awaiting today’s US jobs report.

* Hopes of further central bank easing have underpinned the latest rally in bonds and helped stock markets to move past lingering trade tensions.

* Today’s NFP report will be watched closely in the light of speculation for a move from the Fed this month. Anything but a much stronger than expected number will likely see markets continue to price in deep easing ahead.

* Topix and Nikkei are up 0.08% and 0.09% respectively, the Hang Seng lifted 0.12% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 0.55% and 0.19%.

* Oil prices meanwhile are trading at $56.65, clearly below recent highs, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

* Italian rates fall further as weaker than expected German manufacturing orders added to hopes for additional easing measures from the ECB.

* German manufacturing orders slumped -2.2 bp in the May reading, bringing the annual rate down to -8.6% y/y. Orders from within the Eurozone have now dropped for the second consecutive month while orders from outside the currency bloc fell back -5.7% m/m, after some strong months.

Charts of the Day



Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD edged out a 1.1273, which is just 5 pips from yesterday’s low. Market narratives have been centering on the ECB’s further turn to the dovish side, which has tipped the Bund yield curve into negative right out to the 20-year maturity, while the 10-year yield has forayed below -0.40%, undershooting the deposit rate.

* GBPUSD found a footing after three straight down days, which yesterday culminated in a 15-day low at 1.2557. The pair has since taken root around 1.2575-90. EURGBP similarly came to a directional halt below the six-day high seen yesterday at 0.8990, which is just 2 pips short of the six-month peak that was seen last week.

Main Macro Events Today

* NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.

* Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.

* Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2019.



* An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP.

Monday – 08 July 2019

* Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports clearly are impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU are still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spell further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial production expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month.

Tuesday – 09 July 2019

* JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.


Wednesday – 10 July 2019

* Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged.

* Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have rise to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.

* Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remains for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement (removed patient) and the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing made for a dovish stance.

Thursday – 11 July 2019

* Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) –The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) –May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00)

Friday – 12 July 2019

* Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.