Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

Date : 30th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and the 10-year is at 2.804%, up 2.3 bp on the day, but still firmly below 3% as confidence in the Fed rate path evaporates amid widening market turmoil. Yields in Asia remained under pressure as risk aversion dominated and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.016% while the sell off in stocks continued. The Nikkei is down -1.54%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -1.63% and -1.29% respectively after the U.S. closed with broad losses.Spanish yields meanwhile are still jumping higher and gained 10.6 bp so far, suggesting special factors rather than a wider stabilisation of sentiment is at play in the case of Italy. The situation looks similar at the short end, where the Italian 2-year yield is down -47.3 bp. Italy’s political turmoil and renewed concern about trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment and a stronger yen added to pressure on Japanese markets. U.S. futures are also heading south and the correction in stocks doesn’t seem to have run its course yet. The calendar still has the Swiss KOF, French consumer spending and Q1 GDP, German jobless numbers, ESI economic confidence data and most importantly preliminary German HICP inflation, with the latter expected to pick up to 1.8% y/y.

German retail sales jump 2.3% m/m in April. A much stronger rebound from the dip in March than anticipated. With March numbers revised up to -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m, the annual rate still fell back to 1.2% from 1.7% y/y in the previous month, although the timings of Easter are likely to still distort the annual comparison. The numbers are volatile and often subject to heavy revisions, but the rebound over the month is still a positive sign after a raft of disappointing data that cast a shadow over the German growth outlook.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German Unemployment Change & HICP – Expectations – Unemployment change expected unchanged at 5.3% y/y in May, while German HICP is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y.

* US ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – seen rising 188k in May from 204k in April.

* US Goods Trade Balance & Prelim. GDP – Expectations – Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP, which anticipated to remain at 2.3%, unchanged from the initial release.

* BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change to the current 1.25% policy setting alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”


Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.850%, while yields rose across Asia as stock markets rallied. 10-year GDP yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.028%, Australia and China underperformed. Like European and U.S. stocks yesterday, equity markets across Asia recovered from the bout of heightened risk aversion as Eurozone breakup risks were being priced out again. China’s official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved which saw CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp outperforming with gains of 1.81% and 1.55% respectively. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.81% and the Hang Seng gained 0.91%. There is still plenty of risk with Sino-American trade relations in focus and U.S. tariff exemptions set to run out tomorrow and the Italian crisis is also far from over. So volatility is likely to remain high over the summer, complicating the tasks for global central banks that were heading for more policy normalisation.

FX Action: USDJPY has settled in the mid 108.0s after failing to sustain gains above 109.0 yesterday. Yen crosses are also lower, reflecting a generally firmer yen, albeit moderately so. This is turn reflects a more circumscribed view markets are taking of the situation in Italy, which has returned a bid to the Japanese currency. The Washington Post has also reported, citing three unnamed sources, that President Trump will later today announce tariffs on steel and aluminium on imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU. The month’s end has reportedly generated some demand for the Japanese currency, too. In data, Japan’s April industrial production disappointed at 0.3% m/m growth. The median forecast had been for 1.4% m/m growth, though the data hasn’t had a bearing on forex markets.

Charts of the Day



Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st June 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 4.5 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, 2-year yields gained 3.6 bp and are at -0.643%. The rise in rates at the long end mirrors moves in Treasury and JGB yields, which lifted, the latter after the BoJ cut purchases of some debt at its regular operations. Peripherals are outperforming and the Italian 10-year is down -10.1 bp at 2.644%, after a last minute agreement with President Mattarella cleared the way for a populist coalition government, with Giuseppe Conte set to be sworn in today. Spain’s Rajoy meanwhile seems on the way out with the Socialists preparing to take control after reportedly gaining sufficient votes to win a vote of no confidence against Rajoy today. Stock futures are moving higher in Europe and the U.S. on the day Trump’s long announced tariffs finally come into effect. The EU’s countermeasures will start with the May 18 list of duties in U.S. goods ranging from Whiskey to Jeans, hardly the top of EU imports from the U.S. and there is lingering hope that despite the harsh tones from all sides, the high stakes will bring them back to the negotiating table. Data releases today focus on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland.

Trump administration’s announcement that it was proceeding with slapping tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada. The U.S. also hit Mexico and the EU with the same tariff (even though Mexico is a net buyer of U.S. steel and aluminium), and all three rapidly responded with announcements of counter tariffs. This weighed on global stock markets and underpinned safe havens, including the yen. In the mix were a bag of perky U.S. data releases, including weekly initial claims, personal income and the latest Chicago PMI survey, a spike in Eurozone HICP to 1.9% y/y in the preliminary May estimate from 1.2% y/y in April, above-forecast China manufacturing PMI and a miss in Japanese production data for April.

Canada announced plans to challenge the U.S. tariffs via both NAFTA and the WTO, while Macron of France declared them “a mistake and illegal.” Macron said the decision on the metals tariffs “closes the door on other talks,” though he plans to speak with Trump later tonight. The German economic minister said that the tariffs decision was damaging both for Europe and the U.S., but the transatlantic relationship remains extremely important for Germany.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* EU Final Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5.

* UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipate to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.

* US NFP – Expectations – expected to rise 188,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000.

* US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – estimated to tick up to 58.1 from 57.3 in April.


Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

The strength in the U.S. jobs report helped unwind a lot of the recent angst over trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that many investors feared were jeopardizing the global upswing in growth. The acceleration in the U.S. should override tariff worries, and the momentum should help offset the slowing out of Europe, especially as the uncertainties over the political situations in Italy and Spain have been resolved for now. The markets are likely to be consolidative this week as a number of factors impact.

United States: This week’s calendar is light with few top tier reports, limited Treasury supply, and no Fedspeak given the blackout period ahead of the June 12, 13 FOMC meeting. Earnings have also slowed to a crawl. As for data, the May ISM non-manufacturing numbers (Tuesday) will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. An increase by 0.7 point to 57.5 is expected, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The April JOLTS data (Tuesday) will add some details to the outlook but will be anticlimactic following the employment report. And while it continues to corroborate the strength in the labor market, it also suggests the market may not be as tight as perceived. The April trade report (Wednesday) will be tracked given the tariff uncertainties, and it will also help fine tune the improved Q2 GDP outlook.

Canada: Canadian employment tops a busy week of economic data. The employment report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 20.0k bounce in jobs during May after the 1.1k dip in April, while the unemployment rate holds at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade report (Wednesday) takes second place in the rankings of most-important-release-this-week, with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Q1 productivity (Tuesday) is projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4. Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values. The May Ivey PMI (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip to a still firm 70.0 in May from the seasonally adjusted 71.5 in April that was the firmest reading since the 73.2 seen in March of 2011. May housing starts (Friday) are expected to expand at a 215.0k unit pace, little changed from the 214.4k growth rate in April. Q1 capacity utilization (Friday) is seen rising to 86.1% from the 86.0% in Q4 that was strongest since Q2 of 2007’s matching 86.0%.

The Bank of Canada publishes the twice annual Financial Stability Review (Thursday, 10:30 ET) with a press conference to follow at 11:15 ET. In the November Review, the Bank said the high level of household indebtedness and housing market vulnerabilities were the most important vulnerabilities.

Europe: Political uncertainty in Italy and Spain may be resolved for now. But while the markets celebrated the new governments in Spain and Italy on Friday, the changes could spell trouble for the ECB and the stability of the Eurozone down the line if they bring uncontrolled deficit spending. With that in mind, and spreads having come in again, the chances that the ECB will commit to an end date for QE at the June 14 meeting are rising, especially after the jump in May HICP inflation. German orders data this week will be watched carefully, but even if data disappoints, it would further highlight that the central bank’s window of opportunity for the next step toward policy normalization is closing. Wrapping the end of QE in dovish guidance may be the best way to deal with the current uncertainty.

This week’s round of data includes key German reports, including the April manufacturing orders (Thursday) which are expected to show a 0.7% m/m rebound. German industrial production for April (Friday) and the trade balance (Friday). Final Eurozone Q1 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.The calendar also has final Eurozone May services PMI, Eurozone retail sales and PPI inflation, and a German I/L bond auction Thursday, followed by a 5-year Bobl auction Wednesday. France sells bonds Thursday.

UK: Brexit negotiations will continue this week while the data schedule is fairly quiet, highlighted by the release of the construction and services PMI surveys for May (due Monday and Tuesday, respectively). The construction PMI expected to come in with a headline reading of 52.0, down from 52.5 in April, which would indicate a modest slowing in the pace of expansion. Market participants will be keeping a watch out on the evolving Brexit negotiation, which is in a crucial phase and which remains fluid.

Japan: In Japan, April personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show consumption rising to a 1.0% y/y pace from the previous -0.7%. The second look at Q1 GDP (Friday) is penciled in at -0.4% q/q, modestly improving from the preliminary -0.6% pace. The April current account surplus (Friday) is set to narrow to JPY 2,000.0 bln from 3,122.3 bln.

China’s trade balance (Friday) will get a lot of attention given the trade tensions with the U.S., though we shouldn’t be able to discern any impacts. The balance was at a $28.8 bln surplus in April with gains of 12.7% y/y for exports and 21.5% y/y for imports.

Australia: The RBA’s policy meeting (Tuesday) is expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. In the April meeting, Governor Lowe repeated that the low level of interest rates is supporting the economy. Something similar is expected in the June statement, consistent with a low for long outlook for policy. The data slate is highlighted by Q1 GDP (Wednesday), expected to accelerate to a 0.7% growth rate (q/q, sa) from the 0.4% pace in Q1. Retail sales (Monday) are projected to expand 0.4% (m/m, sa) in April after the flat reading in March. The current account (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to a -A$9.0 bln deficit in Q1 from -A$14.0 bln in Q4. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen narrowing to a A$1.1 bln surplus in April from A$1.5 bln in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.937%, 10-year JGBs unchanged at 0.040%. After putting trade concerns aside and focusing on U.S. growth during the Monday session, stock markets struggled in Asia. The RBA left rates on hold as expected and maintained cautious optimism on the global and local growth outlook while suggesting that wage growth may have bottomed out, which saw the ASX underperforming and down -0.35%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.20% and down -0.05% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.22% and the CSI outperformed with a 0.81% gain. A mixed picture, with markets appearing to take a wait and see stance. U.S. stock futures are slightly in the red, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 65.02 per barrel.

FX Action: EURUSD has steadied above the N.Y. low of 1.1677, though continues to find sellers ahead of the 1.1700 mark. The pairing has steadied well above last week’s 11-month low of 1.1508, largely as the worst of the European political meltdown appears to be behind us for now. This said, there may still be some political fissures yet to bubble up, so EURUSD is expected to remain in sell-the-rally mode.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* EU Markit Services PMI – Expectations – expected to be confirmed at 53.9, leaving the composite at 54.1, down from the previous month, but still pointing to a solid pace of expansion and at least for the manufacturing sector market reported ongoing job creation amid capacity constraints and an overall optimistic view on the outlook over the next 12 months.

* UK Services PMI- Expectations – a dip is anticipated to 53.0 in the headline reading after 52.8 in April.

* US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI – Expectations – will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. A 0.7 point increase has been forecasted to 57.5, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The slight improvement will leave the service sector tracking the expected performance for the May factory surveys which are showing improvement. These readings remain robust, supported by fiscal stimulus as well as stronger global growth.

* Canadian Q1 productivity – Expectations – projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4.

* Speeches: UK MPC Member Cunliffe, German Buba President Weidmann, RBA Assist Gov Bullock

Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Risk appetite is back and stocks in Asia moved mostly higher in tandem with U.S. futures. Treasury yields picked up and the 10-year yield is at 2.939%, up 1.1 bp. 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.3 bp to 0.043%. Concerns about rising protectionism seem on hold for now, and Nikkei and Topix are up 0.39% and 0.12% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.52%. The CSI 300 meanwhile is down -0.20%, in tandem with Shanghai and Shenzen Comps amid lingering concerns about Sino-American relations. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are broadly higher and oil prices are set for a second day of gains and currently trading at USD 65.89 per barrel.

FX Update: Both the dollar and yen have traded softer against most other currencies. EURUSD has edged out a two-week high at 1.1734. EURJPY also posted a two-week peak, though the euro has traded more mixed (i.e. net neutral) versus other currencies, with euro crosses having flattened out for the most part out after rallying over the last week on the shifting Italian political situation. Concerns remain about how viable a government Italy’s unusual Five Star and League populist parties will make; about whether their anti-establishment, Eurosceptic colours will start to show through in policy. USDJPY has remained buoyant, near yesterday’s two-week high at 110.00, aided by AUDJPY strength following forecast-beating GDP data out of Australia, along with a backdrop of mostly higher stock markets in Asia. Strength in tech stocks helped lift stock markets, while Beijing said today that it would buy $70 worth of U.S. goods if the Trump administration lifts steel and aluminium tariffs. Cable built on gains seen yesterday, lifting into two-week high territory above 1.3400. AUDUSD, buoyed by solid Australian growth data, rallied over 0.5% in making a six-week high at 0.7672.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Swiss CPI – Expectations – expected rising to a 0.3% m/m from 0.2% m/m in April.

* MPC Member Tenreyro & MPC Member McCafferty Speech

* US Trade Report & Non-Farm Productivity – Expectations – deficit should be unchanged at -$49.0 bln, and much narrower than a cycle-high -$57.7 bln in February. Revised Q1 nonfarm productivity is expected to slow to 0.7% versus the initial estimate of 0.7%.

* Canadian Trade Balance & Building Permits – Expectations – the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Building permits are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values.

* US Crude Oil Inventories

Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session on improving confidence in the world economy and despite the prospect of tensions at the G7 meeting over the future of trade relationships and U.S. sanctions. The fact that central banks remain on course to reduce stimulus seems to be seen as a sign that the recovery remains intact rather than a threat to equities, at least for now. 10-year Treasury yields are little changed at 2.968%, down -0.4 bp, 10-year JGBs gained 0.4 bp and are at 0.043% amid a broad move higher in yields across Asia. Nikkei and Topix gained 0.93% and 0.66% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.48%, the ASX 0.55%. Mainland China bourses meanwhile erased early gains and are in the red. with concerns about Sino-American trade relations continuing to weigh. U.S. futures are higher though – confirming that the overall mood in equity markets is improving. Oil prices have moved up from lows below USD 65 per barrel and are trading at USD 65.10.

German orders slumped -2.5% m/m in April, with the March reading revised down to -1.1% from -0.9%. The second months of contraction left the annual rate at -0.1%, down from 2.9% y/y in March and the first negative reading since July 2016. Expectations had been for a rebound from the dip in the previous month and while there may be some special factors still at play related to holiday’s and bridging days, the numbers are a worry and will add to concerns that the German recovery is slowing down much faster than feared. The breakdown showed domestic orders in particular weighing down the index, with a drop of -4.8% m/m. Again this may be due to special factors, but the fact that export orders rose for a second months and that Eurozone orders slumped -9.9% m/m, after already falling -2.9% m/m in March cast a shadow over the outlook. This won’t prevent the ECB from phasing out QE by the end of the month, but it highlights that the window of opportunity for the change in direction at the ECB is closing faster than previously thought.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone GDP – Expectations – to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q , but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.

* US Jobless Claims – Expectations – are set to fall 11k to 223k in the week ended May 26, following the prior pop to 234k from 222k in the week of May 12.

* BOC Gov Poloz and MPC Member Ramsden Speeches

Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Risk aversion is back and Asian stock markets headed south. After a sell off in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Thursday, technology stocks were also under pressure during the Asian session. Treasury yields meanwhile recovered some of the losses seen in the wake of the weakness in U.S. stocks yesterday, but after reaching a high of 2.479% have started to fall back to now 2.928%, still up 0.7 bp on the day. Asian yields are broadly lower, with 10-year JGBs down -0.2 bp at 0.037%. Stock indices meanwhile are a sea of red, with the Nikkei down -0.35%, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 down -1.35% and -1.37% after narrower than expected trade surplus out of China. China added to the risk off environment and the focus turns to the G7 meeting, which is likely to bring clashes over sanctions and trade. U.S. futures are down and the WTI crude oil is trading at USD 65.75 per barrel.

German trade surplus narrows as exports decline. Germany reported a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.4 bln for April, down from EUR 21.6 bln in the previous month. Meanwhile, German industrial production contracted -1.0% m/m. Expectations had been for a slight rise over the month, but after the unexpected slump in orders yesterday, the weak production number is not a total surprise. At the same time, March data were revised up to 1.7% m/m from 1.0% m/m reported initially, so the trajectory is not as weak as the headline suggests. Annual growth slowed to a still healthy 2.0%, but nevertheless the weakness in orders and surveys showing a markedly less optimistic view on the outlook confirm that the German cycle has peaked and that growth is slowing down. Capacity constraints are partly to blame, but worries about the export outlook amid an increasingly hostile trade environment are clearly also having an impact.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* G7 Meeting

* Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – to hold nearly steady at a 215.0k pace in May from 214.4k in April. Starts have been resilient, holding in a 215k to 230k range since December while existing home sales and prices tumbled beginning in January as new regulations took effect. The resilience in starts growth is consistent with firm underlying momentum in Canada’s housing market.

* Canadian Employment Data – Expectations – to rise 20.0k in May after the 1.1k dip in April. A gain in May would resume the gains seen in February (+15.4k) and Mach (+32.3k) that followed the 88.0k tumble in January.

Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th June 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

The G-6 (+1) held testy meetings on trade in La Malbaie, Quebec, over the weekend in an “extraordinary” session on trade amid attempts to accelerate negotiations on NAFTA and embark on a new dialogue between the U.S. and EU, after Trump leveled a pointed critique of the present “unfair” trading system. The potentially ill-fated “communique” spoke to deep divisions, though Trump was fairly upbeat on shared G-7 “values and beliefs” in his early exit speech, while sticking to his guns on trade reciprocity. Once past the dysfunctional G-7 family reunion in Canada, attention will now quickly revert to a weighty week in terms of geopolitics and monetary policy. Thus, the markets will have to face a lot of major uncertainties with respect to the outcomes of the Trump-Kim Summit on Tuesday, and the FOMC, ECB, and BoJ results on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, respectively.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar for the week of June 11 will be a busy one, with the FOMC meeting on tap and readings on inflation and consumption on the calendar. Economic data will include CPI and PPI, and both are estimated to firm further above the Fed’s 2% target. Retail sales are expected to post a solid gain. Import prices should rise mostly owing to gains in oil prices. The Empire State index may moderate to a still-strong June reading, while industrial production should post a modest May gain, held back by manufacturing. June Michigan sentiment is projected to edge up from the May reading, and business inventories should rise in April.

A couple other Fed events are sprinkled in the calendar this week as well, though completely overshadowed by the FOMC meeting and surrounding blackout period. The Senate Banking Committee will vote (Tuesday) on the nominations of Richard Clarida for vice chairman and Michelle Bowman for Fed governor. The Fed board will also hold an open meeting (Thursday) on the final rule to establish single-counterparty credit limits for large financial firms. And Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan addresses business leaders (Friday) in Fort Worth, Texas.

FOMC: is one among several key events ahead that could rattle the markets, alongside ongoing trade uncertainties. With a 25 bp tightening by the FOMC a near Fait accompli, attention will be on the SEP and forward guidance, including the dots, as well as any tweaks to the IOER. The Fed is expected to maintain the median dot projection of three rate hikes this year, though there’s speculation of a bump up to four. The 2019 outlook expected to be left unchanged at three tightenings as well, underscoring the “gradualist” mantra. The FOMC may increase the IOER by 20 bps (versus 25 bps), as postulated in the FOMC minutes. As such, the dots and the smaller IOER move could be taken slightly dovishly by the bond market that is positioned for a more hawkish stance here, and from the ECB, which could shroud its QE moves in dovish language. Note, there is also a Powell press conference, but no major new insights to be forthcoming are expected. Out of the three central bank meetings next week, the BoJ’s could be the most uneventful.

Canada: May existing home sales (expected Friday) and the April manufacturing survey (Friday) are the lone highlights. Housing price reports at mid-week also feature. Manufacturing shipment values are expected to climb 1.0% in April after the 1.4% gain in March. Existing home sales are seen up 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 2.9% decline in April. The new housing price index (Thursday) is projected to fall 0.1% in April (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in March. The Teranet/National housing price index for May is due on Wednesday. There is nothing scheduled from the Bank of Canada this week, but there is scope from comments from policy makers on the sidelines of the G-7.

Europe: The ECB meeting on Thursday will be squarely in focus this week after officials indicated that this will be a “live” meeting and pretty much confirmed that the central bank is finally ready to commit to an end date for QE. Rather than delaying the announcement of the widely expected “phasing out” of the remaining EUR 30 bln of net asset purchases, recent market jitters and data misses seem to have sparked a sense of urgency at the ECB. A possible confirmation of the sequencing of rate moves and exit steps aside, Draghi expected to remain non-committal on rates, however, and wrap the announcement on the end of QE in dovish language to maintain balance and prevent the EUR from running away higher with rate expectations.

The ECB meeting will overshadow the data calendar, which will focus on final inflation readings for May and the June ZEW investor confidence reading out of Germany. Inflation numbers are unlikely to hold any surprises. May numbers confirmed that special factors contributed to be weaker than anticipated readings over the previous month and with improvements on labor markets adding to gradually rising wages, inflation is clearly on the way higher. At the same time growth indicators have been weaker than expected. Confidence data in particular remains impacted by recent market volatility and concerns about the outlook for world trade and Eurozone growth amid wider Geo-political tensions and growing EMU-fatigue at home. Against that background, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday) is seen falling back to -11.0 from -8.2, with the number of those pessimistic about the outlook rising steadily. Real economic data also continues to disappoint and after weak national Eurozone production (Wednesday) and trade numbers (Friday) are unlikely to show anything but ongoing weakness at the start of the second quarter.

UK: Incoming data and BoE-speak have kept alive prospects for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate as soon as the August MPC meeting, when the central bank next publishes its quarterly Inflation Report. May PMI surveys showed headline strength, and while key components, such as new business, pointed to an abatement in activity, with Brexit-related uncertainty getting a specific mention from respondents. Wages have been rising in the context of a tight labour market as well — something that won’t have gone unnoticed by the BoE — which has signalled that diminishing slack in the economy and low productivity growth have generated a need for gradual tightening.

The calendar this week is packed, highlighted by (in chronological order), April industrial production and trade data (Monday), monthly labour data covering the April-May period (Tuesday), May inflation numbers (Wednesday), and May retail sales (Thursday).

Japan: The June MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is seen at 4.0 from 3.3 previously. May PPI (Tuesday) should warm to 2.1% y/y from 2.0%. The April tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is pencilled in at up 0.5% from -0.3% in March. Revised April industrial production is due Thursday. The BoJ’s two day meeting, beginning Thursday, is expected to result in no change to the Bank’s huge stimulus program, as economic data since the meeting in April has been mostly disappointing. A news report circulated last week that the Bank may consider reducing the forecasts for inflation in fiscal 2018 and further out, as slow CPI growth in April was an unexpected development for the BoJ. A lengthening in the time frame needed to reach the BoJ’s target would indeed be a relatively dovish development, moving the time frame for rate hikes even further down the road.

China: May fixed investment (Thursday) is forecast at up 7.1% y.y from 7.0%. May industrial production is seen slowing to a 6.5% y/y pave from 7.0%, while May retail sales are pencilled in at up 9.5% y/y from 9.4%.

Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is the focus, with the data calendar otherwise fairly thin. Employment is expected to climb 20.0k in May after the 22.6k gain in April. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.6%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is projected to rebound 1.0% in April after the 2.2% drop in March. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Ellis delivers a speech (Friday), while Governor Lowe speaks on “Productivity, Wages and Prosperity” (Wednesday). Markets are closed on Monday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Date : 12th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Core yields moved higher and stock markets were underpinned as Trump tweeted enthusiastically about the summit with North Korea’s leader. The G7 turbulence was quickly shrugged off yesterday as the focus turned to the Trump/Kim meeting, which will be followed by three key central bank meetings this week. 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.6 bp at 2.957%, 10-year JGB yields rose 0.5 bp to 0.042%, Stock markets moved mostly higher across Asia with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.44% respectively with a weaker yen adding support. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.48% and 0.39% so far, the ASX rose 0.15%. with a stronger currency weighing. US futures are also in the green, oil prices are up and the WTI is trading at USD 66.24 per barrel.

FX Action: The dollar traded moderately firmer heading into the London interbank open, led by a 0.3% gain in USDJPY, which logged a three-week high just shy of 110.50. Yen crosses also firmed up, reflecting broader softness in the yen as safe haven premiums unwound amid a cautious sense of optimism in global markets about the Trump-Kim summit, which has just ended. The summit produced a joint signing of an “important document,” though details about its content have not, so far, been made available. The summit produced images of cordiality and rhetoric (and tweets) of optimism — rhetoric emphasizing historical turning points and of new relationships and prospects for peace etc. Whether Kim actually it turns out that committed to team Trump’s demands for full and verifiable commitment to denuclearization remains to be seen, but, if he didn’t, whatever baby-step towards this grand goal Kim has offered looks to have been satisfactory to Trump. Assuming things remain upbeat, and global stock market direction remains tilted upwards, the yen would likely remain on a softening path, and USDJPY on a firming path. Among other pairings, EURUSD dipped to a two-session low of 1.1742 in the wake of the Tokyo fix before settling around 1.1770. Cable, which took a hit yesterday from big misses in UK production and trade data, posted a one-week low of 1.3341.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings – Expectations –ex-bonus average income to rise by 2.9% y/y in the three months to April, which would be unchanged from the March figure and affirm continued above-inflation pay growth.

* UK Unemployment Data – Expectations – at the 4.2% multi-decade low.

* German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – falling back to -14.0 from -8.2, with the number of those pessimistic about the outlook rising steadily.

* US CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is expected to rise 0.2% for May, following a similar gain in April. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well after a tepid 0.1% April reading.


Support & Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets are mostly in the red as a lacklustre session in Asia draws to a close. Investors left G7 and North Korea summits behind and focused on major central bank decisions this week. Haven assets including the yen weakened amid hopes of diminishing geopolitical risks and a weaker yen helped Nikkei and Topix to outperform and post gains of 0.44% and 0.53% respectively. U.S. Treasury yields moved up from early lows and are now up 0.7 bp at 2.970%, while 10-year JGB yields corrected early gains and are down -0.2 bp at 0.041%. The Fed kicks off the round of CB decisions with a 25 bp rate hike pretty much a done deal, leaving the focus on the rate outlook and similar to the ECB meeting tomorrow, there could actually be good news for markets if the guidance is less hawkish than feared. U.S. stock futures at least are moving higher for now.

FX Update: Most currencies have been directionally dormant so far today, though USDJPY managed to claw out a fresh three-week high at 110.68. Yen crosses also remained underpinned, though most, such as EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, remained below recent highs. Global stock markets have lost upside traction, with risk appetite turning somewhat neutral as market participants anticipate “live” Fed and ECB meetings this week, with the former set, later today, to hike the Fed funds rate by 25 bp and the latter to announce, tomorrow, an end of QE. Attention will be on the respective guidance the central banks give. The Japanese currency has been under-performing as it loses some of its safe haven premium following all the bonhomie, feel-good glow of the Trump-Kim summit.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI and Core CPI – Expectations – to dip to a new cycle low of 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, and see core CPI to also remain unchanged, at 2.1% y/y.

* US PPI – Expectations – a 0.2% increase in headline PPI. The gain should be reflect a 0.3% increase in services prices and a more benign 0.1% rise in goods prices (related to a 0.8% increase in PPI gasoline).

* US Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – crude supplies expected to decline by 1.4M barrels.

* FOMC Statement & Press Conference – Expectations – A 25 bp rate hike, a second for this year, is a fait accompli. So, what will be market moving will be the quarterly forecasts (SEP), including the dot-plot, a potential tweak in IOER, and any surprises from Powell. The key risk for the markets is with the dot plot, and whether the median dot remains at three tightenings this year, or is bumped up to four. With the markets concerned over an aggressive FOMC, maintaining the dots at three would be bond friendly.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.477% in opening trade. Bond markets pretty quickly shrugged off the hawkish Fed during the Asian session as the PBOC failed to follow up and as stock markets headed south. The PBOC didn’t follow the Fed and tighten policy as had been speculated, but Trump said he will confront China “very strongly” over trade in coming weeks and a number of key data of of China, including retail sales and industrial output missed estimates, which added to concerns over a softening economy. Bond markets benefited from the sell off in stocks and the fact that the PBOC refrained from tightening and even Treasury yields fell back from earlier highs. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.8 bp and at 2.948%, below the levels seen ahead of the Fed announcement. 10-year JGBs are down -0.6 bp. German final inflation data held no surprise and was confirmed at 2.2% y/y and the data calendar also has final French inflation readings as well as U.K. retail sales, but the focus is on the ECB, which is finally expected to confirm the end of QE, leaving the focus on the forward guidance.

FX Update: The dollar has more than given back gains seen in the immediate wake of the Fed’s rate hike and hawkish-tilting guidance. EURUSD recouped back above 1.1800 after dipping to a 1.1725 low, post Fed. The euro has been trading generally firmer over the last day, gaining against the pound, Swiss franc, among other currencies, with market narratives focusing on the successful Italian auction of 30-year bonds yesterday, with the appetite for the long-dated debt seen as a good litmus test of investor sentiment on the new Italian government. Market participants are also anticipating the ECB to announce an end of QE policy today. Elsewhere, USDJPY printed a three-day low of 110.04. The biggest movement out of the main currencies has been AUDJPY and is showing a loss of over 0.5%. The Aussie dollar has been under pressure following a sub-forecast Australian employment report. Ahead today, the ECB is expecting to announce the end of QE, while U.S. President Trump will reportedly decide whether to proceed with tariffs on Chinese goods later on Thursday — and his unabashed form this week suggests he won’t hold back.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – Expectations – to rise 0.5% m/m in May, which would affirm a continued recovery from sharp weather-affected weakness in March, although at a decelerated pace from the 1.6% m/m growth seen in April.

* SNB press conference

* ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference – Expectations – Comments from ECB officials suggest that the ECB is finally ready to formally announce the end of net asset purchases. The main question in recent months has been the actual timing of the announcement, not the policy change. So the announcement of a short taper through Q4 would not really come as a surprise, leaving intense focus on the forward guidance. Mr. Draghi expected to initially wrap the announcement in rather dovish language to keep markets from running away with rate hike speculation at a time when geopolitical risks are still hanging over markets.

* US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April and a 0.7% gain in March. Initial jobless claims are estimated to be slightly changed at 224k for the week ended June 9.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.9 bp at 0.41% in opening trade, as global bond markets remain supported by Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday, which was followed by a BoJ statement that left policy unchanged, but downgraded the inflation assessment. Global stock markets are trading mixed though, as the focus returns to trade risks. And for Europe, the weaker EUR may still add support to equity markets, but given that rate hike expectations had already been pushed out amid weak data releases, market reaction to the ECB’s commitment to keep rates steady through summer 2019 seems somewhat overdone. The European calendar has final inflation readings for the Eurozone as well as trade numbers for April, but after the ECB move yesterday these are unlikely to have much market impact.

FX Update: The dollar has traded broadly firmer so far today, with the ECB’s dovish-tilting guidance yesterday coupled with the BoJ lowering its prognosis on the inflation outlook (following a widely-anticipated decision to leave monetary policy unchanged) serving to emphasize the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance. EURUSD extended to a fresh 16-day low of 1.1555 in Asia trading. The pair had been trading above 1.1820 ahead of the ECB’s announcement yesterday, and the magnitude of losses are the sharpest over a day since October 26th-27th of last year. USDJPY, meanwhile, lifted to a 24-day high of 110.99. The BoJ’s downgraded CPI forecast underlines the chronic undershooting of the inflation target and points to ongoing ultra-accommodative policy — which includes pegging the 10-year JGB yield at near 0% — for the foreseeable future, certainly through to 2019. The dollar also posted gains against the dollar bloc currencies and sterling, and most other currencies, including emerging and newly-developed world currencies. Market participants will now be bracing for President Trump’s expected escalation of trade tariffs, as he will reportedly be confirming tariffs on China later today.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone May HICP – Expectations – inflation is expected to be confirmed at 1.9% y/y with the final release today, up from 1.2% y/y in April. The impact of higher oil prices is partly to blame, as are higher food prices, but in the preliminary number core inflation also lifted. The headline rate is pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability and there is in fact a slight risk of an upside revision. However, with the ECB meeting out of the way, and Draghi confirming that rates won’t rise before the end of the summer 2019 the numbers are unlikely to have much market impact.

* Canada manufacturing Sales – Expectations – expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in April after the 1.4% rise in March.

* US Industrial production & UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Industrial production may rise 0.2% in May, following strong 0.7% readings in April and March and capacity utilization should edge up to 78.1% from 78.0%. Finally, the Michigan sentiment expected to be improved to 98.5 from 98.0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th June 2018.



THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Main Macro Events This Week

The FOMC tightened policy last week and followed with a more hawkish stance as it suggested two more hikes could be on the way this year. Additionally, the ECB finally announced a phase-out of QE asset purchases. But, a balanced press conference from Fed Chairman Powell and a dovish slant from President Draghi mitigated a bearish response in the markets. But trade tensions resurfaced Friday after President Trump’s announced tariffs on China, which responded in kind. Central banks remain in the spotlight and the BoE headlines, but there are also decisions from Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, and the Philippines, along with the ECB’s Sintra conference. OPEC meets while PMI data will provide timely clues global economies.

United States: The U.S. data calendar should support the more upbeat message on the economy delivered by the FOMC last week. Housing reports dominate and should show overall improvement. June PMI reports should also reveal still solid readings, even if they moderate slightly. And the leading economic index should rise for an 8th consecutive month. May housing starts (Tuesday) are estimated rising 0.6% to 1.295 mln following a 3.7% plunge in April to 1.287 mln. The June NAHB housing market index (Monday) is expected unchanged at 70. Also on tap is the FHFA home price index (Thursday) which should rise to 263.1 in April from 261.7. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should fall 9.4 points to a still-strong 25.0 in June, after jumping 11.2 points to a 1-year high to 34.4 in May, with a concomitant slide in the ISM-adjusted Philly Fed to 59.7 from a 45-year high of 62.5 in May. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs are due Friday. The May leading economic index (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.3%, following gains of 0.4% in April and March. This would be an 8th consecutive increase, and the index hasn’t posted a decline since May 2016. The current account deficit (Wednesday) is expected to widen to -$129.0 bln in Q1, from -$128.2 bln in Q4. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are seen edging up 1k to 219k in the week ended June 16, which coincides with the BLS employment survey week. Claims are oscillating around tight levels at multi-decade lows.

Canada: The calendar features two top tier data releases and an appearance by a Bank of Canada official. The week beings with Senior Deputy Governor Patterson (Monday), who speaks to the Investment Industry Association of Canada on “Rebooting Reference Rates.” In May, the Bank maintained the 1.25% rate setting and moved closer to hiking rates again, but assured that their approach remains gradual.

CPI (Friday) is expected to climb 0.4% in May (m/m, nsa) after the 0.3% gain in April, as further gains in gasoline prices boost the CPI. The CPI is projected to expand at a 2.5% y/y pace in May from 2.2% in April. A jump in the annual CPI growth rate should not alter the BoC’s gradualism — in the May announcement they noted that inflation will “likely be a bit higher in the near term than forecast in April” due mostly to gasoline prices.Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise only 0.1% (m/m, sa) in April after the 0.6% gain in March, as a decline in vehicle sales weighs. The ex-autos aggregate is expected to improve 0.5% after the 0.2% drop in March. Wholesale shipment (Thursday) are seen rising 0.5% in April after the 1.1% gain in March, which would provide a welcome contrast to the 1.3% plunge in manufacturing shipment volumes revealed for April.

Europe: This week’s round of data releases, which include preliminary PMI readings, are unlikely to offer much comfort as we expect a further decline in confidence levels across both manufacturing and services sectors. With markets still adjusting to the latest policy twists, data releases may have limited impact.

The Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (Friday) at 55.0, down from 55.5 in the previous month, as trade concerns continue to bite. The services reading is expected to hold up slightly better and fall back to 53.8 from 53.8 in the May. This could leave the overall reading at 53.6, down from 54.1 in the previous month. Again, still a robust number suggesting solid growth, but the ongoing decline in confidence readings in Q2 will likely lead to further downward revisions to growth estimate, as the slowdown in Q1 proved to be not quite as temporary as initially expected. So far labor markets continue to improve and wage growth is picking up, so only a small decline in the Eurozone preliminary consumer confidence number is expected (Thursday) to 0.1 from 0.2, although negative geopolitical headlines could have dented sentiment more than anticipated.

Other data releases include national French confidence numbers, as well as the final reading of French Q1 GDP, the latter too backward looking to have much impact. German PPI inflation is expected to jump to 2.5% from 2.0% thanks to higher oil prices, but at this juncture that won’t matter much as the ECB already lifted its inflation forecasts.

UK: The BoE’s MPC gathers for a policy meeting (announcing Thursday), where a no change in the 0.5% repo rate and QE totals are widely anticipated. The focus will fall on the statement and minutes for guidance, which will be of particular interest following a run of overall disappointing data so far available from April and May. Much will also depend on incoming data and how the worsening trade war evolves, in so far as it starts to have a material impact on global economies, thereby, and policymaker decision making. The UK’s data calendar features the June CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday), which due to the reports limited breadth and short survey period tends to be overlooked by markets, and May government borrowing figures (Thursday).

Japan: The April all-industry index (Thursday) is estimated rising 0.8% m/m from the prior flat reading. The pace of inflation likely slowed slightly. May national CPI (Friday) should reveal a cooler 0.5% y/y pace overall from the prior 0.6% clip.

Australia: The minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May meeting (Tuesday) are the highlight of a thin week.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.9025, 10-year JGBs up 0. 1bp at 0.025%, both are down from session highs, but holding on to some of their gains as stock market sentiment settles ahead of key PMI readings in the Eurozone and the US today. Stock market sentiment remains muted, after yesterday’s sell off on Wall Street, but indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are still down -0.46% and -0.63% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 managed to claw back some of yesterday’s losses and are up 0.19% and 0.40%. Trade concerns continue to linger and in Europe Italian political jitters remain a major concern, but US Stock Futures are improving. USOIL rallied and is at $66.26. OPEC and its allies reached a preliminary agreement to boost production despite opposition from Iran. The calendar had national CPI for Japan, which saw the annual reading rising to 0.7% from 0.6%. The Manufacturing PMI Index, meanwhile, rose to 53.1 from 52.8 and the All Industry Activity Index also improved.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded moderately softer so far today, extending a theme that has been seen since yesterday following the release of the Philly Fed index, which came in much weaker than expected. Amid this backdrop, the Euro has corrected some of its recent losses against most other currencies, which has likely reflected short covering, although in a market still wary about the Italian Government’s Eurosceptic bias. EURUSD has recovered back above 1.1600, posting a 3-day high at 1.1638. The pair had yesterday printed an 11-month low at 1.1508. USDJPY has settled near the 110.0 level, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the pair posted a 5-day high at 1110.75. Today, the focus will be on PMI survey data out of both Europe and the US, the evolving trade war, and the OPEC-plus-Russia meeting in Vienna, the run-in to which has exposed signs of discord among some members, which has pushed oil prices up.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI should fall at 56.2 from 56.9 in the previous month. The Services reading is expected to remain unchanged at 52.1

* Eurozone PMI – Expectations – June Manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.1 down from 55.5 in the previous month, as trade concerns continue to bite. The Services reading is expected to hold up slightly better and fall back to 53.5 from 53.8 in the May.

* Canadian CPI and Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to grow 0.4% (m/m, nsa) in May after the 0.3% rise in April. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in May, accelerating from the 2.2% clip in April. The Retail Sales are expected to rise only 0.1% in April after the 0.6% gain in March.

* US Services PMI – Expectations – is seen falling slightly to 56.4 in June.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th June 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

The escalating trade war remained the dominant negative force in the markets the past couple of weeks, along with OPEC fine tuning its supply constraints. Heading into quarter-end, centrifugal forces on trade, immigration, policy, growth and inflation will continue to stretch investor patience. One last flurry of inputs and risks will be mulled as we cross the threshold into Q3.

United States: The US economic calendar will be highlighted by the Personal Income and Consumption Report, which should register solid growth in May. We’ll also get the final Q1 GDP reading, which is expected to show moderate improvement from the Q1 second estimate. Yet focus has shifted to the Q2 reading, which should show a strong rebound in spending and growth. Also of interest will be Consumer Confidence and Michigan Sentiment, which should confirm that consumers continue to perceive economic and market conditions as positive. Durable Goods orders may decline, while New Home Sales should show modest improvement in May. The following week’s calendar to kick off July will include key June data, with payrolls expected to record a solid 195k increase.

Fedspeak resumes with Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan (Tuesday) Q&A and Atlanta Fed dove Bostic in an armchair chat on civil rights. Fed VC for supervision Quarles will discuss “International Regulatory Participation and Cooperation” (Wednesday) and Boston Fed hawk Rosengren will mull “Is the Economy Too Sensitive to Economic Downturns?” St. Louis Fed dove Bullard will take part (Thursday) in a discussion on the US Economy and Monetary Policy.

Canada: BoC events dominate the docket this week: a speech by Governor Poloz to the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce (Wednesday) will be the final outing for a BoC official ahead of the July 11 rate announcement. An economy running near potential, 2% CPI and a 40-year low jobless rate are consistent with the Bank delivering on the signals from the May announcement and progress report that pointed to a near term rate hike. But recent data has undershot expectations, notably April retail sales and May CPI. We still expect a 25 basis point increase in July, but the likelihood has been trimmed in recent weeks due to the data. Another rate hike is penciled in this year (expected to happen in October) but uncertainty over NAFTA further clouds the policy outlook past July.

The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey for Q2 (Friday) is expected to show an economy still running near potential, with inflation expectations at well inside the Bank’s 1-3% target range and perhaps a downtick in the outlook for future sales due to trade uncertainty.

Europe: A busy week is in store that brings key confidence indicators as well as preliminary inflation data for June. At the same time, political uncertainties remain high with the immigration question dividing not just the German government, but turning into a test of the wider European Union just as heads of states prepare for the crucial June 29-30 summit on Brexit.

The recently revamped Ifo Business Climate Index (Monday) now also incorporates Services Sentiment, which is expected to help the overall Business Climate Index to remain stable at 102.0, unchanged from the previous month and with the expectations reading seen falling only marginally to 98.2 from 98.5. Similarly, the ESI Economic Confidence reading (Thursday) is expected to come in just slightly weaker at 112.0, down from 112.5 in May. Preliminary Consumer Confidence came in weaker than expected and together with an expected dip in industrial confidence is likely to draw the index down. Preliminary Inflation readings meanwhile are likely to see the Eurozone HICP rate (Friday) reaching 2.0% in June, the upper limit of the ECB’s definition of price stability. The German rate (Thursday) is expected to lift to 2.3% from 2.2%. PMI surveys seem to be backing this up and despite the recent slowdown, job creation continues and unemployment continues to decline. German Jobless numbers (Friday) are seen falling a further -5K, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.2%.

UK: Last week’s BoE policy meeting was unexpectedly impactful, with the minutes showing an increased rank of three MPC members calling for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate, more than the two expected. Although still outnumbered to the tune of six, the dissenters have put a rate hike as soon as November back on the table. The minutes showed that most members are overlooking the recent economic soft patch, although the majority still want to see more data. In its May Inflation Report, the BoE made it clear that declining spare capacity and low productivity growth meant that gradual and measured monetary tightening will be warranted.

The calendar this week brings the June CBI Retail Sales survey (Tuesday), and the June Gfk Consumer Confidence survey, 3rd release Q1 GDP, Q1 Current Account figures and the BoE’s monthly report on lending and monetary supply (all due on Friday).

Japan: The May Services PPI (Tuesday) is seen cooling to 0.8% y/y, after nearly doubling to 0.9% in April from 0.5% in March. May Retail Sales (Thursday) should be unchanged at 1.5% y/y overall, as they were in April. Friday’s heavy release schedule includes June Tokyo CPI, which is expected at an unchanged 0.4% y/y pace overall. May Unemployment is forecast at a steady 2.5%. Preliminary May Industrial Production is estimated to have fallen 0.8% versus the 0.5% increase in April, which would cap 3 months of solid gains. June Consumer Confidence should slip to 43.0 from 43.9, while May Housing Starts are set to post a 5.0% y/y contraction versus the prior 0.3% pace previously. May Construction Orders are also on tap.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Head of Payments Policy Tony Richards speaks (Tuesday) at the Australian Business Economists event on cryptocurrencies. The sparse data calendar has May private sector credit on Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved back up from lows, 10-year JGBs are also slightly higher as the stock sell off started to fade during the Asian session. 10-year Treasury yields are now up 0.5 bp on the day at 2.886% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.7 bp at 0.026%. The escalating round of trade and investment restrictions continue to hang over markets, but at least for now investors seem to be taking a breather. Japanese stock markets reversed early losses as gains in banks offset declines in technology and telecoms. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.25% and 0.12% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.21% and while the CSI 300 is still down -0.57%, the Shenzen Comp is up 0.66%. US stock futures are also moving higher after sharp losses on Wall Street yesterday. Oil prices are up and the WTI is trading at USD 68.30 per barrel.

FX Update: The main currencies are showing little net change ahead of the London interbank open. EURUSD edged a fresh 12-day high, at 1.1721, before ebbing back to near net unchanged levels nearer 1.1700. USDJPY has become directionally stuck near 109.50, above the 2-week low that was pegged yesterday at 109.37. The yen’s safe-haven bid of yesterday ran out of puff, while BoJ board member Sakurai said, also yesterday, (from Rome) that it remained “essential” for the central bank to conduct monetary policy “under the current framework for the time being.” By “current framework” he meant a short-time interest rate target of -0.1% and pegging of the 10-year JGB yield at near 0% (the curve control policy), alongside its QQE program. The stock market sell-off has abated in Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 managed to close with a fractional 0.2% gain, while S&P 500 futures are showing modest gains. President Trump’s trade advisor Navarro said that the Trump administration just wants “free, fair, and reciprocal trade…the mission here is to defend our technology and IP.”

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* MPC Member Haskel and McCafferty Speech

* US CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – to inch up to 128.5 in June, from 128.0 in May and close to a 17-year high of 130.0 in February. Additionally, S&P Case-Shiller home prices are seen rising to 211.2 in April from 208.0, while the Richmond Fed index may dip to 15 in June from 16.

* FOMC Member Bostic and Kaplan Speech

* NZ Trade Balance – Expectations – is seen narrowing to NZD100 mln in May from NZD263 mln in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields lost earlier gains and are unchanged at 2.877%, 10-year JGB yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.027%, while yields elsewhere mostly declined as stocks struggled for direction with trade concerns continuing to hang over markets. Japanese indexes moved up from lows and are at -0.21% and -0.07% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is down -0.73% and the CSI 300 down -1.59% as the Yuan continued to weaken offshore amid fears that China’s liquidity squeeze will lead to corporate bond defaults in 2H, and the drive for deleveraging is limiting lending and pushing up borrowing costs. Energy companies were supported by an ongoing rise in oil prices. The front-end USOil future rose to a high of USD 70.98, and is currently at USD 70.71 per barrel, amid reports the US is pushing allies to halt imports of Iranian crude. US stock futures are also down.

FX Update: USDJPY has traded moderately lower, back under 110.00, after posting a three-session peak at 110.22. The pair was lifted by post-Tokyo fix demand, rising to 110.20, before selling overwhelmed and turned the Dollar lower. The Yen is also firmer against other currencies as stock markets ebb back again after yesterday’s reprieve. AUDJPY, a cross with relatively high beta characteristics that has been sensitive to the deepening trade spat, is down over 0.3%, earlier printing an eight-day low at 80.81. As for USDJPY, the pair is about at the halfway mark of the broadly sideways range that’s been seen over the last six weeks. USDJPY has Resistance at 110.20-22, levels which encompass recent daily highs. The net directionless path is illustrated by the flat profiles of both the 20- and 50-day moving averages, which are presently sandwiching prevailing levels, being respectively situated at 110.05 and 109.65. Fundamentally the picture would be a bullish one (divergent Fed versus BoJ policy paths) were it not for the safe-haven premium being installed in the Japanese currency amid the backdrop of rising trade protectionism.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* BoE Governor Carney Speech – Scheduled Press Conference following the the publication of the Financial Stability Report at 08:30 GMT

* US Durable Goods Orders – Expectations – Likely to inch up to -1.0% in May from -1.6% in April. Core Orders expected to sink to 0.5% from 0.9% last time

* FOMC Members Quarles and Rosengren Speech
BoC Governor Poloz Speech – Scheduled for 19:00 (text released 15 minutes earlier) speech regarding Transparency and Understanding

* RBNZ Interest Rate Decision & Statement – No Change to rates expected and “timing of any change dependent on how the economy develops” no change in statement

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed in Asia and trade jitters continue to weigh on sentiment after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the decision to use less harsh measures on Chinese investment than feared did not represent a softer tone in the lingering trade tensions. Topix and Nikkei are mixed at -0.20% and +0.05% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.37% and the CSI 300 down -0.02%. US Stock Futures are moving higher, after a negative close on Wednesday and 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 bp at 2.836%, while 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.024%. Emerging market currencies remained under pressure and oil prices are down on the day, but still trading above USD 72 per barrel.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations for no change. The bank said the cash rate will remain at 1.75% “for now.” But they “are well positioned to manage change in either direction — up or down — as necessary.” Recall that in May, Governor Orr said the rate would remain at its current setting “for some time to come.” The Bank remains on hold, with recent soft data delaying the start of rate hikes further into next year.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German and Spanish Prelim CPI – Expectations – further acceleration in headline rates are expected, after both already reported y/y rates above 2% in May. The German rate is expected to lift to 2.3% from 2.2%, while Spanish HICP is seen at 2.3%, up from 2.1% y/y.

* EU Economic Summit – Expectations – The European Commission’s ESI Economic Confidence reading; is expected to come in just slightly weaker at 112.0, down from 112.5 in May. Preliminary consumer confidence actually declined and industrial confidence is also likely to have dipped again at the end of the second quarter, judging by PMI and Ifo readings.

* US Final GDP & Unemployment Data – Expectations – The final estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.4%, up from 2.2% in the second release, while initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 3k to 221k in the week ended June 23.

* MPC Member Haldane, Fed’s Bullard and FOMC Member Bostic Speeches

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th June 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market wrap: Stock Markets moved mostly higher during the Asian session, with Chinese Stocks outperforming after the Central Bank said in comments following the monetary policy committee that it will use comprehensive policy tools to keep economic developments steady and stabilize market expectations, thus underpinning hopes for a loosening of liquidity conditions. The CSI300 rallied 1.41%, Shenzen Comp and Shanghai Comp are up 1.53% and 2.52% respectively. The Hang Seng managed a 1.42% rise, while Nikkei posted more muted gains of 0.09%, as trade concerns continue to cloud over sentiment. The dovish Central Bank comments saw 10-year yields falling -4.6 bp in China, while elsewhere yields picked up as stocks improved. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.855%, 10-year JGB yields gained 0.3 bp to 0.026%. US Stock Futures are also moving higher and the WTI Future is trading at USD 73.24 per barrel. UK Stock Futures are also moving higher. Data releases so far have not been stock friendly, with UK Consumer Confidence and German Retail Sales falling and German import price inflation rising sharply. Still to come are Eurozone HICP and German jobless numbers as well as UK lending data and the Swiss KOF leading indicator.

FX Update: Both the Dollar and Yen have weakened against most of the other main currencies, with the Yen underperforming, while the Euro outperformed on meeting some strong demand on news that EU members had thrashed out the deal on immigration. The deal aims to shore up external borders and create screening centres for migrants, which is seen as placating the Italian populist government. EURUSD flipped back above 1.1650, rallying by a big figure in total before capping out at two-day high of 1.1666, and most Euro crosses concurrently rallied, too. USDJPY lifted above Wednesday’s 110.49 high as global stock markets rebounded, causing an unwinding of the Japanese currency’s safe haven premium. EURJPY and AUDJPY, among other Yen crosses, also strengthened strongly. China’s PBoC said today it would use comprehensive policy tools to maintain positive economic developments and stabilize market expectations.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German Unemployment – Expectations – German jobless numbers are seen falling a further -8K, leaving the jobless rate at a very low 5.2%.

* UK GDP Q1 & Current Account – Expectations – Q1 growth should go unrevised, at 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y. The Current Account is expected to come in with a deficit of GBP 18.0 bln in Q1.

* Eurozone CPI & Core CPI – Expectations – to reach 2.0% in June, the upper limit of the ECB’s definition of price stability.

* Canadian GDP – Expectations – to rise 0.1% in April after the 0.3% gain in March (m/m, sa).

* BoC Business Outlook Survey – Expectations – The Q2 survey is expected to reveal some trimming to the expansionary outlook, but one that is consistent with ongoing growth in 2018. The report should show further tightening of capacity, with labour shortages on the rise. Well contained inflation expectations are projected, but sentiment will remain in the upper half of the band.

* US PCE & Personal Income – Expectations – Personal Consumption Expenditures is expected to rise slightly to 1.9% in May. Personal Income is expected to rise 0.4% in May , following a 0.3% gain in the month prior.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 02nd July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 02nd July 2018.



THE ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD

Trade and tariffs remained in the headlines through Q2 and along with political jitters, caused global consternation. And with the US’s July 6 deadline for collection of additional duties on Chinese products, tariffs will remain the center of attention. Behind the scenes however, US growth has picked up steam as the stimulative effects from deregulation, tax reform and fiscal measures start to take hold and overshadow the noise. While it looks as though Q3 will start off on the same footing as Q2, the big questions for the markets will be whether the trade skirmishes escalate, and whether US momentum can support growth over the rest of the world.

United States: It’s an important week in the US. Along with the July 4 Independence Day holiday, there are the month’s key releases. Additionally, July 6 is the deadline for tariffs on 818 lines of about $34 bln of Chinese goods. The data slate is headlined by the June jobs report, as well as manufacturing and services PMIs, vehicle sales, and trade. The FOMC minutes of the June 12, 13 meeting will provide extra insight on the shift to a more hawkish stance.

The June nonfarm payroll report (Friday) is expected to show a solid 200k increase in jobs after the 223k gain in May, while the jobless rate should hold steady at a low 3.8%. There’s ongoing controversy over the degree of slack in the system. On Monday, the ISM should slip to 58.0 in June, from May’s 58.7. Despite the expected decline, the index remains solid and not too far off from the 14-year high of 60.8 in February. The light vehicle sales (Tuesday) expected to rise to a 17.0 mln rate in June from 16.8 mln in May, with autos at 5.3 mln and trucks at 9.0 mln, versus respective rates of 5.2 and 8.9 mln in May. The May supply – disruption for truck assemblies from a fire at a parts supplier may disrupt truck sales in June and July, though more generally truck sales continue to drive vehicle sales. The May Trade Deficit (Friday) should narrow to -$43.5 bln, from -$46.2 bln in April and a cycle high -$55.5 bln in February, given the Advance Goods Trade Balance narrowing to -$68.2 bln.

Canada: Canada’s data docket contains two key reports that will inform the outlook for the Bank of Canada announcement next week. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 25.0k in June after the 7.5k drop in May and 1.1k dip in April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade deficit is expected to widen to -C$2.2 bln in May from -C$1.9 bln in April. The June Ivey PMI (Friday) is anticipated to slide to a still expansionary 61.0 from 62.5 in May. Employment and trade in line with estimates would support the expectation that the Bank of Canada will lift rates 25 basis points to 1.50% in the July 11 announcement. Markit Canada manufacturing PMI for June is due on Tuesday. The markets are closed Monday in observation of the Canada Day holiday.

Europe: With the ECB having effectively clarified the policy path well into the second half of next year, and the important June summit out of the way without the new Italian government blowing up the party, the markets should be settling into a slower summer mood in a week that includes largely secondary data releases. So for now, market volatility is likely to continue adding to pressures on the ECB to revamp the rules on re-investment as it prepares to phase out net asset purchases by the end of the year.

Data releases are unlikely to change the overall picture significantly. The final readings on June PMIs are expected to confirm preliminary readings of 55.0 for both the Manufacturing (Monday) as well as the Services reading (Wednesday), which should leave the composite on course to be confirmed at 54.8. Readings still point to ongoing robust growth across both sectors and Markit reported with the preliminary numbers that part of the recent slowdown was indeed due to capacity constraints with delivery times lengthening. Meanwhile, German manufacturing orders (Thursday) are expected to rebound 1.0% m/m from the 2.5% m/m decline in April and industrial production is seen to pick up 0.2% m/m, after -1.0% m/m.

Events include ECBspeak from Weidmann (Thursday) as well as Nouy (Friday) and bond auctions in Spain and France on Thursday.

UK: The calendar brings the June Markit PMI surveys, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) anticipated at 54.0, down from 54.4 in May. Evidence suggests that the slowing in economic growth across the channel have been crimping export performance in the manufacturing sector. The construction PMI (Tuesday) is expected to arrive with an unchanged 52.5 headline reading, and anticipate the services PMI (Wednesday) to also hold unchanged, at 54.0. In-line data should keep the BoE on its gradualist tightening course, with markets looking for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate at the August MPC meeting.

Japan: The May personal income and PCE (Friday) should show spending contracting further to a -1.7% y/y clip, from the prior -1.3% outcome, another worrying sign from the region.

China: The June Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI should slip slightly to 51.0 from 51.1. The June services PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in at 52.5 from 52.9. Again such results would add to worries over a slowdown and fears that tariff threats are weighing on sentiment.

Australia: The RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) casts a long shadow over a busy calendar. No change is expected to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate target as inflation remains low. The rate has been unchanged since the 25 bp cut in August 2016. The economic data docket is full this week. Building permits (Tuesday) are projected to bounce 2.0% in May (m/m, sa) after the 5.0% drop in April. May retail shipment values (Wednesday) are expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) following the 0.4% gain in April. The trade surplus (Wednesday) is seen at A$1.3 bln in May from A$1.0 bln in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: A mixed picture on bond markets, while US stock futures recovered earlier losses and are moving higher, in tandem with UK100 futures after markets continued to struggle with trade angst during the Asian session. Germany’s Merkel managed to find a last minute compromise with Interior Minister Seehofer that will prevent a break up of the union parties – at least for now. The controversy over immigration meanwhile is likely to continue not just in Germany, but across Europe. Today’s calendar has Eurozone Retail Sales and PPI as well as the UK Construction PMI.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have remained in narrow ranges, overall, though there has still been some movement of note. USDJPY posted a fresh 6-week high of 111.13 before settling lower. Other Yen crosses also saw similar price action with the backdrop of steadying global stock markets seeing the Yen come under some pressure. China’s PBoC once again allowed the Yuan to weaken, with the USDCNY rate this time rising to an 11-month high above 6.6700. China’s central bank is responding to both the impact of US tariffs and broader weakness in emerging market currencies. The Australian Dollar rallied moderately, partly amid the rebound in stock markets and partly on RBA’s policy statement, which, while remaining distinctly neutral overall, was perhaps a little more sanguine than some market participants had expected regarding the risks stemming from a slower, tariff-afflicted Chinese economy. RBA left the cash rate at 1.50%, as had been widely anticipated. AUDUSD posted a high of 0.7365, a gain of over 30 pips from Monday’s closing levels. EURUSD has lifted back to the 1.1650 area, extending the rebound from yesterday’s 1.1591 low but so far remaining below yesterday’s high.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK PMI Construction – Expectations – an unchanged 52.5 headline reading.

* Canadian Markit Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – to fall to 55.4 in June after the 56.2 in May.

* US Factory Orders – Expectations – to rise to 0.1% m/m in May from the -0.8%m/m in April.

* ECB’s Praet Speech

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury futures declined in thin volumes, while cash markets are shut for a US holiday. Japan’s 30 year yield dropped below 0.7% as Asian market remained shaky, with Chinese Indices continuing to underperform despite the commitment to a stronger Yuan, as the start of the first round of US tariffs on Friday weighs on sentiment. Most Indices managed to come up from lows in the later part of the session and the Nikkei is still down -0.13%, but also up from lows. Oil prices are higher on the day, with the WTI Future trading at USD 74.64 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar traded softer, led be declines against the Yen, Australian Dollar and most emerging world economies, which seemed to benefit from China’s steadying of the Yuan today. USDJPY opened in Asia at about 110.58-60, then dipped to a 4-session low of 110.27 before setting around 110.40. Stock markets in Asia mostly declined, following a tech-led drop on Wall Street yesterday. China’s Yuan steadied after declining notably last week, on Monday and Tuesday, amid reports that it was at the direction of Beijing. Most emerging market currencies also gained. AUDUSD posted a 7-session high at 0.7424. A record high reading in the Australian June Services PMI, which jumped 4 points to 63.0, gave the Aussie a bid, along with the firming in the Yuan. EURUSD meanwhile, clawed out a 2-session high of 1.1678. Conditions will be thin and direction commitment limited today with US Markets closed for the 4th of July holiday.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German Service PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 53.9,which should leave the composite at 54.8.

* Eurozone Service PMI – Expectations –expected to remain unchanged at 22 ,which should leave the composite at 54.8, with a slight bias to the downside.

* UK Service PMI & BoE Speeches- Expectations –is seen steady at 54.0. Events include BoE speeches from Woods and Sarpota as Brexit pressure on the UK mount with May wedged between hard-line Brexiteers and warnings from Brussels that the time for a deal is running out.

* US Bank Holiday – Independence Day


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.3 bp at 1.315% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 2.1 bp at -0.652%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.6 bp after returning from holiday and strong German manufacturing orders as well as Bloomberg source stories suggesting at least some ECB officials see a rate hike in September/October next year, i.e. earlier than current market pricing, will be adding to pressure especially at the short end this morning. Peripherals are outperforming slightly and GER30 and UK100 futures are higher in line with US futures in opening trade. After the release of German orders at the start of the session, the calendar still has Swiss CPI, BoE’s Carney, as well as ECB’s Weidmann and supply from Spain and France.

FX Update: The Euro is opening Europe firmly, with EURUSD testing the week’s highs at 1.1690-91, EURJPY posting two-day highs above 129.35 and EURCHF ascending into 3-week high territory. The Dollar, outside the case against the Euro, has been trading neutrally, including against most emerging world currencies. The PBoC continued to rein in the yuan, with the offshore USDCNY rate of 6.6478-80 holding below Tuesday’s 11-month low seen at 6.7344. USDJPY continued to orbit the 110.50 level. The stability in currencies belies a heightened state of concern about trade protectionism, with the US on Friday set to implement tariffs on $34 bln of Chinese imports, although equity market weakness, especially in China-focused issues, have taken a whack today.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* BOE Governor Carney and German Buda President Weidmann Speeches

* US ADP Employment Change – Expectations –expected to remain rise at 190K from 178K in May.

* US Non-Manufacturing PMI – should fall to 58.0 in June, from 58.6 in May and versus a 12-year high of 59.9 in January.

* Crude Oil Inventories

* FOMC Meeting Minutes

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th July 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

The US June jobs report was another “Goldilocks” set of numbers for the markets, drawing back in workers from the ranks of the long-term unemployed. Broadbased strength in employment not only helped Wall Street rally but the surge in the labor force and tame wage gain allowed Treasury yields to drift lower, since the report offered no incentive for the FOMC to deviate from its “gradual pace” of normalization. Looking forward, inflation data will dominate in the week ahead, with the Fed comfortably close to its 2% target now. The Fed will also release its Monetary Policy Report on Friday with Chairman Powell’s key follow-up semi-annual testimony on July 17.

United States: The US Economic calendar will zero in on inflation statistics for the week of July 9. Modest gains in the CPI and PPI are expected, with the y/y readings remaining above the Fed’s 2% target given hard comparisons. The Import Price Index may reveal weakness related to declining oil prices in the month, but export prices should post a modest gain. Consumer Credit (Monday) is projected to rise $12.0 bln in May, following a $9.3 bln gain in April. JOLTS job openings are due (Tuesday). Headline CPI (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May, while core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.5% in May (Wednesday), as revealed in the advance report, following a 0.1% gain in the prior month, and sales are estimated to rise 0.5% as well, after a 0.8% gain in April. CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% in June (Thursday), following a similar gain in May. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May. Initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 18k to 213k in the week ended July 7 (Thursday), reflecting an expected early-July drop related to auto retooling, and the Treasury budget gap may hit to -$133 bln in June. A 0.2% decline is expected in the Import Price Index in June (Friday), due to crude oil weakness, following a 0.6% gain in May, while export prices are expected to continue to move up 0.1%.

Fedspeak kicks back into gear with just a week to go before Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony, which will be preceded by the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on Friday, July 13 at 11:00 ET.

Canada: Canada is focused squarely on the BoC meeting (Wednesday), which it is expected to result in a 25 basis point boost to a 1.50% rate setting. The accompanying monetary policy report should be consistent with additional rate increases, but at a gradual pace. The focus will be on Bank’s view on the ongoing trade/tariff issues, labor market slack and the inflation outlook. A housing-heavy data docket will be an afterthought this week. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to moderate to a 190.0k pace in June from 195.6k in May. Building permit values are seen dropping 2.0% in May after the 4.6% contraction in April. The New Home Price Index (Thursday) is projected to reveal a 0.1% dip (m/m, sa) in May after the flat reading in April. Existing home sales for June are expected on Friday. The Teranet/National Bank Housing Price Index for June is also scheduled for Thursday.

Europe: ECB tried to inject calm and prevent rate hike expectations from running ahead when it pledged to keep key rates steady through the summer of next year. But with growth indicators confirming that the recovery is not dead yet and inflation jumping higher, officials are now trying to regain control especially over the short end. ECB speakers will be important in this context. President Draghi will testify to the European Parliament in Brussels (Monday). It will be interesting to see whether he backs recent “source” stories suggesting ECB is eyeing the first rate hike in September/October next year, which would also be the last meetings for Draghi as President.

Final Eurozone June inflation data is expected to confirm the German HICP rate (Thursday) at 2.1% y/y. The French reading (Tuesday) also is at a 2.1% y/y rate which should leave the overall Eurozone number (due July 18) on course to be confirmed at 2.0% y/y. German data in particular bounced back strongly with May production and orders figures. Yet, while ongoing political uncertainty and risks of an escalating trade war have weighed on some confidence measures, there is some room for an upside surprise in German ZEW confidence (Tuesday). Still, this is investor confidence data which is more impacted by uncertainties and concerns about political events and at least the latest real sector numbers out of Germany have been very encouraging. Indeed, after German production growth was reported at 2.6% m/m in May, rebounds are expected in French (Tuesday), Italian (Tuesday) and Eurozone Production figures (Thursday). The calendar also has trade data for Germany.

UK: The calendar is fairly quiet in terms of economic releases, highlighted by the June BRC Retail Sales survey (Tuesday), and May Industrial Production and Trade data (also Tuesday).

The government has — after more than two years from vote-to-leave the EU — finally worked out what it wants from a post-Brexit deal with the EU. This was hammered out in a climactic Cabinet meeting on Friday, which saw the hard Brexiteers give up ground to reach a compromise. The government will seek a “EU-UK free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products,” which essentially means a single market for goods, along with a “facilitated customs arrangement” to address the need for a frictionless border in Ireland. It remains doubtful that the EU will agree to the free market for goods part, however, having maintained that the UK will not be able to cherry pick which parts of the single market to take part in. It also remains uncertain how effective the proposed frictionless customs arrangement will be. There are now only 5 negotiating weeks left until October, when both the EU and UK are looking to have an agreement in place.

Japan: The May Machine Orders (Wednesday) are seen contracting 5.0% m/m, essentially halving the April 10.1% climb. The May Tertiary Industry Index (Wednesday) is pencilled in slipping 0.1% after rising 1.0% in April. June PPI (Wednesday) should warm up to 2.9% y/y from 2.7%. Also slated is the final May reading on Industrial Production (Friday). It declined 0.2% in the preliminary report, after gains of 0.5% in April, 1.4% in March, and 2.0% in February.

China: It’s the June Trade Report (Friday) that will be the focal point. Inflation reports are also due with June CPI and PPI (Tuesday). CPI is expected to accelerate a bit to a 2.0% y/y pace versus 1.8% y/y previously, with PPI rising to 4.5% y/y from 4.1%. June loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Tuesday as well.

Australia: In Australia, Housing Investment (Wednesday) features on a thin data docket. A 3.0% drop is expected in May after the 1.4% gain in April. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks at the 5th Bund Summit on Fintech from Shanghai, China (Sunday). The RBA held rates steady last week and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

New Zealand: Retail Card Spending (Tuesday) is the only release of note and it is expected at a 0.7% gain (m/m) in June after the 0.4% rise in May. At the June meeting, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. The next move is expected to be a rate increase. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields continue to climb and 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.864%, 10-year JGBs up 0.6 bp at 0.032% as Stock Markets remained in risk on mode during the Asian session. Nikkei gained 1.09% after a strong close on Wall Street and with the earnings season starting to overshadow lingering trade jitters – at least for now. A weaker Yen added Support. The Hang Seng is up 0.36%, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.20% and -0.11% respectively after their biggest rally in more than 2 years and as Inflation numbers came in higher than anticipated, but also reflecting lingering trade war concerns ahead of the next round of US tariffs due to be confirmed on July 20. Many expect markets to remain volatile ahead of July 20 – the date for the next set of US levies on Chinese imports. US stock futures are higher, however, and oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 74.29 per barrel.

FX Update: USDJPY has broken above recent range highs and printed a 7-week high at 111.14. EURJPY and other Yen crosses are also up, with EURJPY trading in 7-week high terrain and AUDJPY making 1-month highs. The driver of the yen’s underperformance is the continued rebound in global Stock Markets, although Chinese shares continue to underperform. The solid US jobs report last Friday and expectations for a strong corporate earnings season have been buoying equities, and while the shift toward trade protectionism remains at the top of the worry list of investors, the level of implemented tariffs so far is small in the scheme of things. BoJ Governor Kuroda yesterday repeated that the central bank will remain committed to ultra-accommodative monetary policy, including yield-curve control, until inflation hits the 2% target. USDJPY has Support at 110.88-90 while the May-21 high at 111.39, which is the highest level seen since mid January, provides an upside waypoint.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Production Data – Expectations – Industrial production expected to rebound by 0.5% m/m after contracting by 0.8% m/m in the month prior, while we see the narrower manufacturing output figure rising 0.8% m/m after declining by 1.4% m/m in April.
* UK Trade Balance – Expectations – expected to fall to 11.9B from 14.0B last month.

* German ZEW – Expectations – July investor sentiment reading anticipated at -18.0 down from -16.1 in June, confirming that pessimists still outnumber optimists.

* Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – expected to rebound to a 210.0k pace in June after falling to 195.6k in May from 216.8k in April.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th July 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is trading at 0.3598% as of 06:12 GMT, down from a close of 0.3672% on Tuesday. Safe haven flows are once again underpinning core Bond Markets and 10-year Treasury yields are down 1.5 bp at 2.834%, after a Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese imports and reloaded the trade war threat. Stock markets sold off across Asia and European Futures are also heading south in tandem with US Futures. With little on the European data calendar, trade jitters are likely to remain the main focus in markets, although many expect investors to quickly start to focus on the earnings season again after the initial sharp reaction. Germany and Italy are set to sell Bonds today and there are a number of ECB speakers including president Draghi.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have traded in narrow ranges so far today amid a tone of heightened caution as stock markets take a fresh tumble, led by Chinese bourses, due to another ratchet in trade warning tensions between the US and China. US Index Futures have also seen hefty declines. USDJPY has settled lower, near the 111.0 mark, after printing a 7-week high at 111.35 yesterday, while AUDJPY, a relatively high beta cross, is down quite sharply, by over 0.6%. AUDUSD is down by a similar magnitude. Most emerging market currencies have also come under pressure against the Dollar, giving back some of their rebound gains seen in recent sessions. EURUSD has lifted back above 1.1700, rebounding from yesterday’s three-session low at 1.1690. The pair has been trading in a broadly sideways, at times choppy, range for over a month now, and more of the same is anticipated.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* ECB speeches –ECB President Draghi delivers a speech at the ECB Statistics Conference in Frankfurt, along with Praet and Lautenschläger.

* US PPI and Core – Expectations – Headline PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May, while core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May.

* BoC Monetary Policy and Rate statement – Expectations – BoC expected to raise the policy rate 25 basis points. Economic data has come in roughly as the Bank projected, with growth running around capacity and underlying inflation at 2%.

* BoC Press Conference

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields moved higher as risk appetite improved. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.9 bp at 2.858% and the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.032%. Asian stock markets meanwhile recovered from yesterday’s slump, with Chinese markets outperforming as trade jitters abated somewhat as Chinese and U.S. officials reportedly flagged the prospect of returning to talks, with China’s Vice Minister of Commerce calling for bilateral negotiations to resolve the conflict. BoK’s decision to leave the 7-day repo rate unchanged at 1.50%, as expected had little impact. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 1.23% respectively, with a weaker Yen underpinning gains. The Hang Seng gained 1.00% and the CSI 300 is up 2.57%. US Futures are moving higher and the WTI Future is up from a low of EUR 70.60, but at USD 70.80 still considerably below recent levels.

German June HICP confirmed at 2.1% y/y, as expected. There were no real surprises in the data, which confirmed that higher energy prices are a key reason for the overshoot in the headline rate above ECB’s target. Heating oil prices rose 30.3% y/y, after 24.3% y/y in the previous month and petrol price inflation accelerated to 11.3% y/y from 8.2% y/y. Still, with the labour market looking tight and companies facing capacity constraints the room for a second round of effects to emerge is clearly larger than it was a year ago, which may explain why some at the ECB are nervous about markets pushing out rate hike expectations too far back.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* BOE Credit Conditions Survey

* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

* US CPI and Core – Expectations – forecast to rise 0.2% in June, following a similar gain in May. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well, the same as in May.

* US Jobless claims – Expectations – estimated to fall 18k to 213k in the week ended July 7, reflecting an expected early-July drop related to auto retooling

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

Politics will continue to dominate the landscape in early Q3, pretty much as it’s done for most of the year amid escalating trade tensions. Of course, President Trump’s meeting with President Putin in Helsinki (Monday) is anxiously awaited and follows his meetings last week with PM May and NATO. While the political uncertainties have left the markets choppy, signs of strengthening US growth have overshadowed potential drags from trade and have provided global support to equities.

United States: Fed Chairman Powell’s Monetary Policy testimony (Tuesday) would normally be the key event. However, with the FOMC unlikely to divert from its gradualist policy path anytime soon, and especially amid trade uncertainties, attention will shift to earnings announcements and data. The end result of the testimony, however, should support expectations for another 25 bp hike at the September 25, 26 FOMC meeting, while the chances for another tightening in December will be assessed, though that will depend largely on data. Powell will reprise his testimony to the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday).

In terms of economic reports, it’s the June Retail Sales report (Monday) that’s the star. Also due is June Industrial Production (Tuesday), seen rising 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report. The Empire State index (Monday) should fall to 20.0 in July from an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is expected to rise to 23.0 in July after falling to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June. Slated too are Housing Starts (Wednesday), estimated falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

Canada: June Existing Homes Sales report is expected Monday. Manufacturing Shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in May after the 1.3% drop in April. Retail Sales (Friday) are seen snapping back 1.0% in May after the 1.2% loss in April that was blamed on poor weather during the month. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after a 0.1% dip. The CPI (Friday) is expected to slip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the surprisingly slim 0.1% gain in May, as falling gasoline prices impact in June. The annual growth rate is seen at 2.2% (y/y, nsa), matching the 2.2% y/y clip in May. The three core CPI measures are expected to maintain the 1.9% annual rate of expansion in June.

Europe: Politics have been dominating the agenda last week and this week is unlikely to be different, with Europe not only looking nervously to President Trump’s meeting with President Putin, but also once again to Brussels. So far the focus has been on PM May’s battle to sell her “soft Brexit” vision at home, but she still has to get an agreement with EU leaders. This week’s calendar includes Eurozone trade and current account numbers, which generally don’t have too much market impact, although a strong export number would underpin the central scenario of still robust growth, while at the same time, will fuel the debate on the EU’s and especially Germany’s trade reliance against the background of rising protectionism. The highlight of the data calendar is the final reading of Eurozone June HICP inflation.

UK: Political developments and Brexit will remain sharply in focus. President Trump’s apparent walking back on Friday of his criticisms of Prime Minister May — after championing Boris Johnson’s credentials as a potential PM in an interview with a Murdoch-owned tabloid newspaper that is wanting to topple PM May — lifted both the Pound and UK yields.

The data calendar this week is pretty busy, highlighted by monthly Labor data (Tuesday), June Inflation data (Wednesday), and June Retail Sales (Thursday).The labor report expected to show the Unemployment Rate remaining at 4.2%, and Average Household Income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June. June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report.

Japan: The markets are closed Monday. The June Trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 580.5 bln deficit turn to a JPY 580.0 bln surplus as exports likely outpaced imports on a 12-month basis. June national CPI (Friday) is penciled in accelerating to a 0.9% y/y clip overall, from 0.7% in May, as oil prices firmed and JPY softened. The latter has also likely helped push the core rate to 0.8% y/y, from May’s 0.7%. The May all Industry index (Friday) is forecast to fall 0.1% m/m from the prior 1.0% gain.

Australia: The Employment report (Thursday) takes top billing, where a 15.0k gain is expected in June after the 12.0k rise in May. The Unemployment Rate is projected at 5.4%, matching May and down from 5.6% in April. The minutes of RBA’s July meeting are due Tuesday. To review, RBA held the cash rate steady at 1.50% at the meeting this month and maintained expectations for no change for an extended period.

New Zealand: The calendar has Q2 CPI (Tuesday), expected to rise 0.6% after the 0.5% gain in Q1 (q/q, sa). At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. It is expected that the next move will be a rate increase — but the current expectation is for steady policy well into next year. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields continued to move higher during the Asian session, with 10-year Treasury yields up 0.5bp at 2.864% and 10-year JGB yields up 0.4 bp at 0.033%. Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japanese bourses outperforming after returning from yesterday’s holiday as the Yen declined. Chinese Equities meanwhile sold off amid lingering trade jitters and with investors not convinced that earnings can compensate for the rise in protectionism. Markets are looking ahead to Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to Congress. Nikkei is currently up 0.78%, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.06% and -1.25%. US Stock Futures are narrowly mixed, and Oil prices are little changed at USD 67.99 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar majors have been holding narrow ranges for the most part, with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, and other pairings, showing respective net changes of less than 0.2% on the day so far. EURUSD has been making time in the lower 1.1700s, and USDJPY in the lower 112.00s, after edging out a two-session high of 112.57. The Sterling has held up after the UK government scrapped through four parliamentary votes on its Customs Bill late yesterday, which was seen as a litmus test of the so-called Chequers plan (the Cabinet rubber-stamped plan laying out what it wants out of Brexit). There is another parliamentary vote today. While some hardline Brexiteers MPs are agitating for a no confidence vote in the prime minister, so far they are reported to lack sufficient support, and Boris Johnson, the Brexiteer with the most political weight, has remained on the side lines. Sterling market participants will be watching developments closely.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* BOE Gov Carney Speech

* UK Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings– Expectations – The Labor report is expected to show the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, and average household income also remaining unchanged at a rate of 2.5% y/y in the three months to June.

* US Industrial Production – Expectations – to rise 0.5%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in May, based on the rise in hours-worked from the jobs report.

* Canadian Manufacturing – Expectations – to rise 0.5% after the 1.3% drop in April.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony – Expectations – The Fed chief will likely be grilled on the impacts of trade, but he’ll have to take a wait and see approach there, while noting there are risks to the downside.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 18th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields moved slightly higher, as is appetite improved and stock markets advanced across Asia with the Fed Chairman Powell injecting fresh life into equity markets with an upbeat assessment of the US economy. Positive leads from the US and a record high in the NASDAQ helped to underpin sentiment in Asia amid mixed earnings reports this week. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.48% and 0.71% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.20% so far and the CSI 300 0.59%, while the ASX is up 0.61%. Improved risk appetite saw 10-year Treasury yields rising 0.5 bp to 2.866% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.7 bp at 0.035%, while yields declined in China, Australia and New Zealand. US stock futures suggest further gains in US markets today. The WTI future is down on the day and trading at USD 67.68 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer for a 2nd day, buoyed by an upbeat prognosis of the US economy and outlook by Fed chair Powell yesterday at his semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. EURUSD descended to a 3-day low at 1.1631 while USDJPY ascended above 113.00 for the first time since January. AU-USD printed a 1-week low at 0.7363 and USDCAD a 3-week high at 1.3227. Powell’s remarks seemed to hit a sweet spot, having expressed optimism on the growth outlook while being somewhat circumscribed on inflation, which leaves the Fed on course for another 25 bp hike in September, and another in December, but not to the displeasure of equity investors, who have also been encouraged by positive Q2 corporate earnings announcements, and expectations for more to come. In the UK, the Prime Minister once again survived a key vote on a Brexit-related bill by the skin of her teeth last night (although lost one concerning the regulation of medicines after Brexit). So the PM and her government survives, but Brexit process is looking borderline disorderly.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – June CPI is expected to tick upward, to 2.6% y/y from the unexpected dip in the prior month to 2.4%, which would be consistent with BoE projections made in its May Inflation Report. As for Retail Sales, growth of 0.2% m/m in June is anticipated, down from the strong 1.3% m/m growth that was posted in May.

* Eurozone CPI – Expectations – Eurozone HICP inflation reached 2.0% y/y with the preliminary release, thus hitting ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, with French as well as Italian HICP rates revised down by 0.1 percentage points with the final numbers, there is the chance of a downward revision to the final reading. Even with a slight downward revision we don’t expect ECB to be changing its key policy parameters which include the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year.

* US Building Permits – Expectations – estimated to be falling 2.2% to 1.320 mln in June, following a 5.0% surge to a new cycle-high of 1.350 mln in May.

* Fed Chair Powell Testimony for a 2nd day

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Bond as well as stock markets traded mixed during the Asian session. 10-year Treasury yields rose 1.7 bp to 2.886%, after Fed Chairman Powell’s hearing did little to derail rate hike expectations. 10-year JGB yields meanwhile dropped -0.3 bp to 0.031%, as the BoJ cut back its purchases of longer-maturity bonds for the first time since January. Australian 10-year yields surged 3.3 bp as Australia employment surged, thus underpinning expectations for wage growth, inflation and a rate hike further down the line. Stock markets are narrowly mixed, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.03% and down -0.06% respectively. The Hang Seng is down -0.12%, the CSI 300 down -0.09%. The ASX 200 is up 0.36% after the strong employment numbers, but US stock futures are also trading narrowly mixed. Oil prices are marginally higher on the day with the WTI future trading at USD 68.78 per barrel.

Australia employment surged 50.9k in June, well in excess of expectations following the 13.4k rise in May (was +12.0k). The details were upbeat, as full time employment rose 41.2k after a 19.9k drop (was -20.6k). Part time jobs grew 9.7k after a 33.4k gain (was +32.6k). The unemployment rate was 5.4% in June, matching May. The participation rate rose to 65.7% from 65.5%, restraining the unemployment rate. This report is strong, but it is not likely to persuade RBA to raise rates anytime soon given still non-threatening underlying inflation growth and concerns about downside risk to China’s outlook. Moreover, the July meeting minutes saw the Bank observing that there is likely ongoing excess capacity in the labour market. AUDUSD jumped to 0.7435 on the surprisingly strong job gain, from about 0.7400, before slipping slightly to 0.7425.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – Expectations – growth of 0.3% m/m in June is anticipated, down from the strong 1.3% m/m growth that was posted in May.

* US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – Expected to rise to 21.0 in July, after falling to a 19-month low of 19.9 in June.

* US Jobless Claims – Expectations – estimated to be rising to 220K, following the 214K last week.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th July 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The September 10-year Bund future opened at 163.16, up from 163.08 at yesterday’s close. The 10-year cash yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.326% in early trade, versus a 1.1 bp gain in US Treasury yields. Asian Stock and Bond markets traded mixed after China devalued the yuan, which saw Chinese 10-year yields jumping 5.6 bp, and Chinese stocks rallying, while Topix and Nikkei are still slightly down on the day. European Stock Futures meanwhile are heading south, with trade jitters continuing to weigh. Released at the start of the session German PPI inflation accelerated to 3.0% y/y as expected and largely thanks to base effects from higher energy prices. The data calendar still has Eurozone current account data as well as UK Public Finance numbers.

The PBoC devalued the Yuan by the most for a single day since June 2016, with USDCNY’s reference rate set at 6.7671, up from yesterday’s 6.7066 and the highest in a year. The offshore Yuan fell over 0.5% to a 6.8358 low versus the Dollar, a level not seen since late July last year, before recouping to 6.8212 amid reports of major state banks buying the Yuan in what most market participants and onlookers take as Beijing-directed intervention to prevent a rapid tumble in the currency. The weaker setting of the reference rate comes hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest venting about China’s currency valuation, deepening concerns about the evolving Sino-US trade war.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – Expectations – is expected at 3.6B from 3.4B last month.

* Canadian CPI – Expectations – The CPI is expected to slip 0.1% in June (m/m, nsa) after the surprisingly slim 0.1% gain in May, as falling gasoline prices impact in June. The annual growth rate is seen at 2.2% (y/y, nsa), matching the 2.2% y/y clip in May. The three core CPI measures are expected to maintain 1.9% annual rate of expansion in June.

* Canadian Core Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are seen snapping back 1.0% in May after the 1.2% loss in April that was blamed on poor weather during the month (ice storm!). The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen rising 0.5% after an 0.1% dip.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

Markets have had plenty to chew on over the past week or so and President Trump has been right at the sharp end of the action as his whirlwind tour took him through Brussels, London and finally Helsinki. In the process, he left friend and foe alike on notice over perceived inequities on military spending, trade alliances and post-cold war standing. The themes weren’t new, but the force and timing of the mixed political messages caused alarm overseas. A plethora of corporate earnings will dominate in the week ahead, along with any volatility arising from the ratcheting up of trade rhetoric.

United States: The economic data calendar in the week of July 23 will be dominated by Q2 GDP growth, though we will have to wait until Friday for the release. A robust 4.1% pace is expected, with positive contributions from consumer spending, net exports and inventories. Also on tap will be existing home sales, which are estimated to rise, and new home sales, which are projected to fall, partially reversing a June surge. Durable orders should rebound from weakness in the prior two months while the advance trade numbers should reveal a deterioration. Finally, the final July reading of the Michigan Sentiment should be little-changed from a lower but still-strong early-July reading.

Fedspeak: In theory, Fedspeak will go into hibernation ahead of the next Fed meeting set for July 31 – August 1, which is expected to result in a pause. Of course, more Trump frontal attacks on the Fed will heighten market interest in what should be an uneventful policy meeting, though the Committee itself will be unaffected. St. Louis Fed’s Bullard said last week in post-speech comments Fed will continue to take the best actions to achieve its dual mandate.

Canada: The May Wholesale report (Monday) is expected to reveal a 0.7% gain in shipment values after the 0.1% increase in April. An as-expected result would be supportive of the projection for a 0.3% gain in May GDP (m/m, sa) following the 0.1% rise in April. Moreover, a firm May result would put Q2 GDP on track for a 2.8% gain (q/q, saar) that would match BoC’s estimate for the separate quarterly real GDP measure. Average weekly earnings for May (Thursday) are projected to gain 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% drop in April. There is nothing scheduled from BoC this week, or until the September 5 announcement.

Europe: The spotlight also will be on Draghi this week, although no major changes are expected to the ECB’s central message from June. Net Asset Purchases remain on course to be phased out by the end of the year, but Draghi may be under pressure to clarify the commitment to keep rates steady “through the summer” of 2019. The question is whether that excludes a move at the September 2019 meeting, as one ECB member seemed to imply, prompting a number of “source stories” suggesting that not everyone at the council would be happy to wait too long for the first move. Indeed, with the deposit rate still firmly in negative territory and underlying inflation on the way higher, the central bank may have to hike rates earlier than some expect, even if uncertainty about the global trade and growth outlook mean ECB is right to keep its options open.

Data releases include the first reading of Q2 GDP from a major Eurozone country as well as first confidence data for the third quarter in the form of preliminary July PMI readings and July German Ifo confidence numbers. Growth indicators for the second quarter initially looked very shaky, but on the whole we still expect a rebound in quarterly growth and to see an acceleration in French Q2 GDP growth to 0.4% q/q from 0.2% q/q in Q2.

UK: The focus will remain on Brexit negotiations, which haven’t exactly been going swimmingly. Last week, Prime Minister May’s fragile government only just managed to push through several bills on modifications to the newly-formed Brexit policy document, which will form the basis for negotiating with the EU. The European Commission stated last week that “everyone must now step up plans for all scenarios” ahead of March 29 next year, especially in the event of a no-deal exit. The Pound is trading about 13-14% lower in trade-weighted terms since the vote to leave the EU back in June 2016, much of which represents the Brexit discount that market participants are demanding. This discount is expected to persist.

The calendar this week is relatively quiet, with the only highlights being provided by the July releases of the CBI industrial trends and distributive sales surveys (due Tuesday and Thursday, respectively). The Total Orders headline of the industrial trends survey expected to dip to a reading of 8, down from 13 in the previous month, and the realized sales headline of the retail survey to fall to a reading of 16 after 32 in the month prior. The CBI surveys don’t tend to cast much impact in markets due both the amount and breadth of participants, and the relatively small survey period.

Japan: The calendar is quiet until Thursday, when June services PPI is due. The prices are expected to slow to a 0.1% y/y pace versus the prior 1.0% increase. July Tokyo CPI (Friday) is seen at an unchanged 0.6% y/y overall, and a steady 0.7% y/y clip on a core basis.

Australia: The CPI (Wednesday) is expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. The Trade Price report (Thursday) is seen showing a 1.0% rise in Q2 import prices (q/q, sa) after the 2.1% bounce in Q1. A 2.0% drop in Q2 exports prices is projected after the 4.9% gain in Q1. The Q2 PPI is scheduled for release on Friday. The RBA is uncharacteristically silent until the August 7 meeting, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate is expected.

New Zealand: The trade report (Wednesday) is expected to show a narrowing in the surplus to NZ$200 mln in June from NZ$294 mln in May. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. To review the June meeting, the RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. The next move is anticipated to be a rate increase — but the expectation is for steady policy well into next year. The next meeting is on August 9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Yields continued to move higher during the Asian session, confirming that reports of policy tweaks at the BoJ have reminded traders that major central banks remain on course to take out more stimulus. 10-year JGBs yields initially corrected some of yesterday’s gains but recovered losses during the later part of the session, and yields mostly moved higher elsewhere in Asia as stock markets rallied. 10-year Treasury yields by contrast fell back from earlier highs and are down -0.6 bp at 2.949%. The 10-year JGB yield is now up 0.3 bp at 0.077%. 10-year yields rose 3.3 bp in China as the Yuan fell sharply amid signs that China is shifting towards monetary expansion, as the government presented measures designed to boost domestic demand. Still, while this may be a reaction to signs that the trade war will worsen the economic slowdown, the slip in the Yuan also adds to risks that the trade war will turn into a currency war. For now, though it has put a fire under Chinese equities in particular while rising yields aided financial companies. The CSI is up 1.55%, the Hang Seng gained 1.42%, and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.48% and 0.52% respectively. The ASX is also up 0.58%. US Stock futures are equally moving higher.

FX Update: The Dollar is showing modest gains versus most currencies heading into the London interbank open, underpinned by the further rise in US 10-year T-note yield yesterday, which lifted to 5-week highs, pushing towards the 3.0% level again amid market speculation that Friday’s advance US Q2 GDP report will top the median forecast for 4.1% y/y growth. The USD index (DXY) lifted to two-session highs, while EURUSD printed a two-session low of 1.1666. USDJPY, in contrast, has traded with little direction in the lower 111.0s after yesterday printing a 3-day low at 110.75. Japanese exporters were reported buying Yen during the early part of the Tokyo session today, which contributed to driving USDJPY to an intraday low of 111.06. The pair subsequently lifted back some amid a backdrop of rallying stock markets in Asia, led by Chinese bourses on reports that Beijing will adopt a more “vigorous” fiscal policy, including corporate tax cuts.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German Markit PMI – Expectations – The Manufacturing PMI is seen falling to 55.5 from 55.9, and the services reading to 54.3 from 54.5

* Eurozone July PMIs – Expectations –The EMU Manufacturing PMI is seen falling to 54.6 from 54.9, and the services reading to 55.0 from 55.2.

* US Housing Price Index, Markit PMIs & Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – FHFA home prices are forecast to rise to 264.1 in May from 262.5. Also the Markit flash PMIs are on tap, along with the Richmond Fed index seen dipping to 17 in July from 20.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.3 bp at 2.936%, 10-year JGB yields are down -1.0 bp at 0.063% and long term yields are also down in Australia and New Zealand. BoJ didn’t scale back its bond purchases at today’s regular operation thus helping to ease concerns of policy tweaks. Hopes of stimulus measures in China continue to battle with trade jitters ahead of Trump’s meeting with European commission President Juncker and Asian markets are mixed, with Chinese underperforming and correcting some of the recent gains. Nikkei is up by 0.41%. US stock futures are heading south, Oil prices are higher and the September future is trading at USD 68.79 on a stock pile decrease.

FX Update: The Aussie took a dip on Australian CPI data, which came in at 0.4% q/q in Q2, below the median forecast for 0.5%. AUDUSD fell nearly 0.5%, making an intraday low of 0.7392. Elsewhere, the Dollar majors have shown little net change. Commitment in markets has been limited, with strong corporate earnings and China’s course for fiscal stimulus offset by concerns about long-term trade protectionism. The Yuan logged fresh lows after PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate above 6.8. The focus today will fall on the meeting between President Trump and European Commission President Juncker, where few are holding out for any breakthrough on their differences on trade. USDJPY has remained settled in the lower 111.0s, above the 2-week low that was printed on Monday at 110.75, and EURUSD has held in a narrow range in the upper 1.1600s.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German IFO – Expectations – The latest German orders data showed a stronger than expected recovery – this is expected to help stabilize the Ifo reading, although after the revamp on the index to include the services sector, manufacturing doesn’t have quite the dominant role it used to have in the key German business confidence readings. Indeed PMI readings today showed services confidence falling against a pick up in manufacturing confidence. Against that background, the July Ifo is expected to be steady at 101.8.

* US New Home Sales – Expectations – expected to fall 3.0% in June to 668k, following a 6.7% surge to 689k in May that reflected firm sales in the South.

* Crude Oil Inventories

* President Trump and European Commission President Juncker Meeting

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th July 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields jumped higher in opening trade, in catching up with the jump in 10-year Treasury yields late Wednesday following Trump’s agreement with Juncker on trade talks that seemed to suspend the threat of auto-tariffs for now and sparked hopes that a trade war can be avoided. As of 06:22 AM GMT the 10-year Bund yield is up 2.2 bp at 0.414%, and while Treasury yields have pulled back from yesterday’s highs and are down -1.1 bp on the day, 10-year JGB yields are up 1.5 bp at 0.079%. Peripheral bonds are outperforming and European stock futures are rallying, led by a nearly 1.3% rise in GER30 futures. In theory a de-escalation of trade tensions would add to the arguments of the hawks at the ECB council meeting, which adds to pressure on Bunds, but China’s example has shown that the apparent truce may not last long and Draghi is likely to remain cautious.

FX Update: The Yen has been trading firmer while the Dollar has been steady against most currencies. EURUSD edged out a fresh 4-day high of 1.1743 earlier in Asia, marginally extending the gain seen after the unexpectedly cordial meeting between President Trump and the EU’s Junker. USDJPY has remained heavy as the 10-year JGB yield lifted to a 1-year high of 0.89% amid prevailing speculation that BoJ could scale back its stimulus program, despite concurrent expectations for the central bank to trim inflation forecasts at its policy meeting next week. USDJPY printed a 17-day low of 110.66 late yesterday and has since ebbed back towards 110.70 after a brief rebound stalled near 111.00. The mood in equity markets has turned more negative after Wall Street was boosted in the late session yesterday as the US agreed to hold off on car tariffs. Some corporate earnings and/or circumspect corporate guidance, including from Facebook, General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler, have soured sentiment somewhat, along with what some are calling “Trump fatigue.”

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* ECB Refinancing Rate – Expectations – No major changes are expected to ECB’s central message from June at today’s policy meeting. Net asset purchases remain on course to be phased out by the end of the year, but Draghi may be under pressure to clarify the commitment to keep rates steady “through the summer” of 2019. The question is whether that excludes a move at the September 2019 meeting, as one ECB member seemed to imply.

* ECB Press Conference

* US Durable Goods and Jobless Claims – Expectations – The Durable Goods orders are estimated rising 1.2% in June, after a 0.4% decline in May, and shipments should increase 1.5% with inventories up 0.3%. Initial Jobless claims are estimated to rebound 10k to 217k in the week ended July 21, following a 207k reading in the week of July 14 — a new 48-year low.

* Tokyo Core CPI – Expectations – July Tokyo CPI is seen at an unchanged 0.6% y/y overall, and a steady 0.7% y/y clip on a core basis.

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th July 2018.



FX News Today

European Market Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields are holding above the 0.4% mark in early trade, despite the weaker than expected French GDP number ahead of the open, but underpinned by a sharp acceleration in German import price inflation to 4.8% y/y. Peripherals are slightly outperforming this morning after Draghi’s dovish leaning take on rates, which counterbalance rising confidence at the central bank that underlying inflation will gradually move towards targets. European Stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with US futures amid hopes of strong US growth and an easing of trade tensions. Chinese bonds outperformed as local Stock Indices headed south and amid signs that the People Bank of China is endorsing policies to underpin growth as China readies for a protracted trade conflict with the US. Hopes for stronger US growth and a NAFTA deal underpinned sentiment and helped markets to move past yesterday’s tech sell off in the US and Dow Jones (USA30), USA500 and NASDAQ futures are all moving higher. Oil prices are little changed on the day and trading at USD 69.61 per barrel. The calendar still has French consumer confidence numbers but markets will focus on US GDP numbers in the PM session.

FX Update: The Dollar has been trading with a firming bias as markets anticipate a strong advance US GDP report for Q2, which will be released later today (and which President Trump and members of his administration have been flagging), though trading ranges have remained narrow thus far today. EURUSD edged out a 1-week low of 1.1637, and Cable and AUDUSD respective 3-day lows, of 1.3100 and 0.7372. USDJPY, meanwhile, remained below yesterday’s high at 111.25, though recovered back above 111.0 after a short-lived dip to 110.92. The low in USDJPY was seen as the 10-year JGB yield popped above 0.1% before a special yield-curve control buying operation by BoJ pushed it back below 0.1%. Japanese Tokyo CPI for July rose to 0.9% y/y from 0.6% y/y, above the 0.8% y/y figure expected. The PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.7942, up from yesterday’s 6.7662 rate.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* US GDP & Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – expected to rise at a 4.1% rate in Q2, double the 2.0% pace in Q1, while final Michigan sentiment may remain at 97.1 in July, a 6-month low, compared to a 14-year high of 101.4 in March.

* US PCE – Expectations – The core y/y PCE core prices expected to stick beyond the Fed’s 2.0% objective for a 3rd month in July, at 2.2%

Support and Resistance Levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th July 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

There’s plenty of data this week to provide clues, though tariff and trade uncertainties will continue to muddy the outlooks, especially as they impact growth and inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, central bank policies are in play with FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings.

United States: Traders will be actively monitoring this week’s heavy data slate, including Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM, Vehicle Sales, Trade, the ECI, and Confidence. Additionally, the FOMC meets (Tuesday, Wednesday), but it should be a non-event. There’s also the advent of supply with the August Refunding announcement. The July Employment report (Friday) holds its usual top spot as the indicator of the month. The Unemployment rate is expected to dip back to 3.9%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Nearly all labor market indicators have boasted of very tight conditions and extreme difficulty in finding qualified workers, which resulted in a huge jump in the labor force in June. The Manufacturing ISM (Wednesday) is projected to fall to 59.0 in July, from June’s 60.2, and down only slightly from the 14-year high of 60.8 from February, and would still reflect a robust rate of expansion. The Non-Manufacturing ISM (Friday) should decline to 58.0 in July, from 59.1 in June, and from the 12-year high of 59.9 in January. July Vehicle Sales (Wednesday) are expected to slow modestly to 17.2 mln from a 17.4 mln June pace.

The June Trade Deficit (Friday) will get additional scrutiny for indications of trade flows. The deficit is estimated to narrow to an average -$135.7 bln in Q2, down from -$142.3 bln in Q1. Net exports detracted from growth in Q4 and Q1 but there was a strong positive contribution from this component in Q2 GDP. June Personal income and Consumption (Tuesday) should help fine tune Q2 GDP forecasts. The Q2 Employment Cost Index (Tuesday) is estimated rising 0.6%, moderating from a 0.8% gain in Q1. Also, July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 127.0, from a 126.4 level in June. Confidence measures continued to be well-supported by the strength in the economy and the tight labor market.

Canada: Canada releases its May GDP report (Tuesday) which will be the highlight of the week, though June trade (Friday) will also featuring prominently. The calendar is otherwise rather sparse, with the June industrial product price index (Tuesday) and the July Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) rounding out the docket. GDP is expected to grow 0.2% in May (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in April. Retail sales rebounded in May after a weather driven drop in April, supportive of firm GDP growth. Manufacturing and wholesale shipments also improved. But some operations at some refiners remained shut down for maintenance, which could exert a sizable drag on total GDP growth in May. The trade deficit is seen narrowing to -C$2.3 bln in June from -C$2.8 bln in May. The industrial product price index is seen slipping 0.3% in June (m/m, nsa) after the 1.0% surge in May. The Markit manufacturing PMI for July may show some slippage in activity after climbing 0.9 points to a record high of 57.1 in June, with strength in new orders.

Europe: This week’s data releases won’t have an immediate impact on the rate outlook as there will be another set of data before the next policy meeting. Still, with the next round of confidence data and preliminary July inflation numbers ahead, the calendar will be important for the medium term outlook. On the whole data expected to confirm the central bank’s central scenario of robust, but slowing growth accompanied by a gradual rise in underlying inflation.

The preliminary reading for Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) headlines this week and a marginal acceleration is expected in the quarterly growth rate to 0.5% q/q from 0.4%. The already released French number came in lower than expected and saw an unchanged quarterly rate of 0.2%, but this was partly due to the impact of strike action last quarter. Even if the quarterly growth rate comes in a tad below expectations, Draghi already acknowledged that some of the weakness in the Q1 had spilled over into the second, so modest Q2 growth is already part of ECB’s central scenario.

The ESI Economic Confidence reading (Monday) is expected to dip to 112.1 from 112.3 in the previous month, with the renewed decline in confidence tying in with slightly weaker PMI and IFO readings. Indeed, the Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at 55.1, in line with the preliminary number, but the Services PMI (Friday) is expected at 54.4, which should leave the composite reading at 54.3, unchanged from the preliminary reading and down from 54.9 in June. Confidence is starting to erode, even as data still points to ongoing robust growth. But the survey also reported that price pressures remain elevated. Results in line with the preliminary inflation readings are expected to leave the German HICP print (Monday) unchanged at 2.1%, the French reading (Tuesday) at 2.3% and the Eurozone reading (Tuesday) unchanged at 2.0%. This is already in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability. Yet, with core inflation still much lower, the elevated headline reading is not sufficient to force Draghi to bring forward the timing for the first rate hike. ECB is getting more confident, though, that underlying inflation is slowly moving higher, especially with improvements in labor markets underpinning wage growth. A further decline in German jobless number (Tuesday) by -4K is anticipated, which would leave the July seasonally adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 5.2%). Eurozone June unemployment meanwhile is also seen unchanged at 8.4%.

UK: Top of the agenda is the August BoE MPC meeting (announced Thursday), which will come with the publication of the central bank’s latest quarterly inflation report. BoE is anticipated to hike the repo rate by 0.25 bp, which would take it to 0.75%. This would be the 3rd increase within a gradual tightening cycle, and the vote at the 3-member Committee is seen to be 7 to 2. At the same time, BoE should leave the QE total at GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases and GBP 10 bln for corporate bond purchases.

The data calendar this week is highlighted by monthly BoE Lending data (Monday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), and the July PMI surveys (due from Wednesday through to Friday). Of these, Gfk Consumer Confidence for July to hold at -9, the same as in June, while the Manufacturing PMI expected (Wednesday) at 54.0 in the headline after 54.4 in June, and the Services PMI (Friday) at 54.7 after 55.1 in the month prior.

Japan: There will be a lot of interest in the BoJ meeting (Monday, Tuesday) given recent news reports of a policy tweak to its yield curve management (YCC) strategy. Worries that such a move could be an early warning of a shift away from uber-accommodation saw JGB yield spike higher, which forced BoJ to step in and offer to buy an unlimited amount of paper. BoJ is not expected to suggest a more hawkish stance is on the way. As for data, June Unemployment (Tuesday) is expected steady at 2.2%, with the job offers to seekers ratio unchanged at 1.60. Preliminary June Industrial Production (Tuesday) should fall 1.0% m/m from the previous -0.2% reading. July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is forecast little changed at 43.5 from 43.6. Also, June housing starts and construction spending (Tuesday) with the former seen contracting at a 2.0% y/y rate, from 1.3% previously. The final July Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is penciled in falling to 52.0 from 53.0. It was 2.1 a year ago. July auto sales are also due Wednesday.

Australia: The Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to rise 1.0% in June after the 3.2% drop in May. The Trade Balance (Thursday) is seen improving to A$1.1 bln in June from A$0.8 bln in May. Retail Sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.4% in June, matching the 0.4% growth pace (m/m, sa) in May. RBA is uncharacteristically silent until the August 7 meeting.

New Zealand: The Employment report (Wednesday) is expected to show a 0.7% gain in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% improvement in Q1. A 4.4% unemployment rate is anticipated, which would match the jobless rate from Q1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st July 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st July 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: As of 5:33 GMT, 10-year JGB yields had dropped -3.4 bp to 0.057% after BoJ left policy on hold and pledged to keep rates steady for an “extended period of time”. The forward guidance aside there were also tweaks including more flexibility in bond operations and a reduction in reserves subject to negative interest rates. Meanwhile the inflation forecast was cut. 10-year Treasury yields fell -3.5 bp to 2.939% in a tandem move and long yields also headed south in China. Despite the drop in yields, Topix and Nikkei are down -0.92% and -0.16% respectively, with tech stocks hit by disappointing results from Samsung and a slump in large US names, although US futures are mostly moving higher now. Oil prices are down on the day and the September WTI future is trading at USD 69.84 per barrel.

FX Update: The Yen looks to be coming back under pressure as the early European interbank crowd start to make their presence felt. USDJPY has lifted back above 111.30, returning focus back on the post-BoJ announcement high that was pegged at 111.43 (which is a 1-week peak). The AUDJPY cross is showing the biggest movement out of the main currencies we keep tabs, with a gain of just over 0.5%. BoJ announced steps to add flexibility in its stimulus program but pledged to keep rates low for an “extended period of time” while trimming inflation forecasts. The main takeaway for markets is that the policy tweak was less significant than a recent Reuters report, which cited unnamed sources had suggested. The tweak, lifted Japanese stocks while driving JGB yields and the Yen lower. Elsewhere, EURUSD ground out a three-session high (by just 1 pip, according to our data), at 1.1719, which has reflected a moderate-but-broad softening bias of the Dollar.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* German Labor Data- Expectations – A further decline is expected in German jobless number by -4K, which would leave the July seasonally adjusted jobless rate unchanged at 5.2%.

* Eurozone Q2 GDP – Expectations – Preliminary Eurozone GDP report for the Q2 is expected to accelerate to 0.5% q/q from 0.4%.

* Eurozone Unemployment & Prel. CPI – Expectations – Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.0% y/y in July, unchanged from the previous month and in line with the central bank’s upper limit for price stability. Eurozone June Unemployment meanwhile is also seen unchanged at 8.4%.

* US PCE and core, Personal Spending and CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – June Personal Income and Consumption should help fine tune Q2 GDP forecasts, and expected to rise 0.4%. Also, July Consumer Confidence is expected to rise to 127.0, from a 126.4 level in June. Confidence measures continued to be well-supported by the strength in the economy and the tight labor market.

* Canada May GDP – Expectations – expected to expand 0.2% in May after the 0.1% gain in April (m/m, sa). Weather knocked retail sales lower in April. A return to more normal weather in May corresponded with a rebound in retail sales, consistent with a strong rebound in total GDP. But downside risk is evident — oil refineries were shutdown in April and May, suggestive of a negative contribution from the mining, oil and gas sub-sectors.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Bond markets are back under pressure and 10-year JGB yields erased yesterday’s decline and jumped 5.8 bp to 0.110% as markets test BoJ’s willingness to let the 10-year climb as high as 0.2%. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 2.975%. The USD strengthened amid reports that the US is retching up its trade threat to propose raising its planned 10% tariffs on USD 200 bln in Chinese imports to 25%. This followed earlier source stories suggesting that the US and China were trying to restart talks. Concerns about US-China trade relations saw Chinese indices underperforming, with Hang Seng and CSI 300 down by -0.09% and -0.39% respectively, elsewhere markets moved mostly higher, led by Japanese indices, with the Topix rebounding 1.04%, as the Yen weakened against the Dollar and positive results from Apple Inc helped to stabilize tech stocks. US futures are now also mostly up, led by the NASDAQ, but European futures are under pressure in opening trade, as the BoE meeting comes into view amid the wide rise in yields and concerns about US-China trade relations. Oil prices are down on the day and the September WTI future is trading at USD 68.42 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded moderately firmer into the London interbank open, with the USDIndex showing a 0.2% gain at 94.65, a 2-day high. EURUSD concurrently posted a 2-day low, at 1.1675, which is near the midway mark of a broadly sideways range that’s been evolving since early June. USDJPY rose for a second day and printed a 12-day high at 111.98. PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate higher once again, to 6.8293, which is the lowest for the Yuan since May 2017, after 6.8165 yesterday. The Trump administration said that it is thinking of hiking the 10% tariff in place on $200 bln worth of Chinese imports to 25%, which looks like a ploy ahead of a recommencement of trade talks. In data, Japan’s final manufacturing PMI for July was unexpectedly revised higher, to 52.3 from 51.6 reported in the flash estimate, but this still marked a slowing in trend while the pace of expansion in new orders dropped off notably. China’s July manufacturing, meanwhile, undershot expectations at 50.8, down from 51.5, with weakness blamed on the Sino – US trade standoff. Focus today will be on PMI releases in Europe and North America. The Fed will today conclude its 2-day FOMC policy meeting today, which should be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to policy and only minor changes likely on the statement compared to the Fed’s June policy statement.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone & German Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – The EU Manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at 55.1, in line with the preliminary number, while the German one is expected to remain unchanged at 57.3.

* UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipated at 54.0 in the headline (median 54.2) after 54.4 in June.

* US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – The manufacturing ISM is projected to fall to 59.0 in July, from June’s 60.2, and down only slightly from the 14-year high of 60.8 from February, and would still reflect a robust rate of expansion.

* Canada Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –The Markit manufacturing PMI for July may show some slippage in activity after climbing 0.9 points to a record high of 57.1 in June, with strength in new orders.

* FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate – Fed is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, with the announcement set for today at 18:00 GMT.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: Risk aversion intensified during the Asian session, which gave a fresh boost to global bond markets. 10-year Bund yields fell to a low of 0.4619% in opening trade and is currently down -0.7 bp, versus a -2.2 bp decline in 10-year Treasury yields and a -0.3 bp dip in 10-year JGB yields. Stock markets sold off in Asia, led by mainland Chinese bourses, US stock futures are also heading south and, for now, trade jitters have moved firmly back to the forefront as the earnings season continues. The Fed did the expected yesterday and left rates on hold, while laying the ground for a September move. The focus now turns to BoE, which is expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp today. The calendar also has Eurozone PPI, the UK Construction PMI as well as bond sales in France and Spain.

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer against most currencies and more than reversed initial declines that were seen after the largely as-expected Fed policy announcement yesterday. The upgrade in the Fed’s assessment of the economy to “strong” — from merely “solid” in the June statement — provided reason to buy the Greenback on dips. The USDIndex posted a 3-day higher, while EURUSD concurrent pushed lower, to a 4-day low of 1.1640. USDJPY was once again an exception to the broader Dollar theme, with the pair settling in a narrow range centred around 111.60 so far today, holding well within the bounds of yesterday’s range, though EUR-JPY and most other Yen crosses ebbed to 2- or 3-day lows, reflecting an underlying bid for the Japanese currency. This came concomitantly with the 10-year JGB yield rising to an 18-month high near 0.15%, pushing towards BoJ’s new 0.2% upside limit to its yield-curve control policy, though these moves stalled after BoJ member Amamiya in a speech today, reminded markets that the central bank will buy JGBs if yields rise rapidly, and that “powerful easing” remains appropriate as it will take time for the 2% inflation target to be achieved. Another incentive to buy Yen has been a fresh wobble in global stock markets, with the Trump administration confirming reports from late Tuesday that it is considering rising tariffs on $200 bln worth of Chinese imports, seen as a bargaining ploy by Trump ahead of Washington and Beijing’s return to the negotiations table, though China has returned fire by accusing the US of blackmailing.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Construction PMI – Expectations – Is projected to fall to 52.8 in July, from June’s 53.1.

* BoE Monetary Policy & Rate Decision – Expectations – BoE expected to hike the repo rate by a further 25 bp to 0.75%.

* BoE Inflation Report – BoE should leave the QE total at GBP 435 bln for government bond purchases and GBP 10 bln for corporate bond purchases

* BoE Gov. Carney Speech at 11:30 GMT

* US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – a 220k increase in unemployment claims is expected.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 3rd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields held slightly below the 3% mark during the Asian session, 10-year JGB yields fell -1.0 bp at 0.103%. BoJ’s verbal intervention and unscheduled offer to buy bonds yesterday seems to have capped investor’s appetite to test the new BoJ tolerance on the 10-year yield for now. Meanwhile, long yields in China moved higher as the Yuan continues to slide. Stocks traded mixed across Asia. The Nikkei is up 0.08%, but the Topix fell -0.45% and is heading for its first weekly loss in a while after disappointing earnings reports. Despite this Japan overtook China as the world’s second largest stock market amid a slump in the Shanghai Composite Index this week. The index lost a further -0.05% so far today, the CSI 300 is down -0.585, as a weaker than expected Caixin/Markit Services PMI added to ongoing trade jitters. The ASX 200 lost 0.11% and US futures are also down.

FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to the upper 111.0s, reflecting a broadly softer Yen today as global stock markets stabilize. The 10-year JGB yield also fell to 0.103%, aided lower by scheduled BoJ purchases today, with the central bank making clear through its actions over the last day that it won’t be a one-way street to its newly installed 0.2% upper yield limit. BoJ member Amamiya yesterday reminded markets, that the central bank will buy JGBs if yields rise rapidly, and that “powerful easing” remains appropriate as it will take time for the 2% inflation target to be achieved. Taking a step or two back, USDJPY has been trading with little overall direction since early 2017, turning about a 10 big figure range in drawn-out oscillations, pulled lower during risk-off phases in global markets and pulled higher when markets are more focused on underlying fundamentals. The range over this period has been 104.63 to 115.50, and there doesn’t look much, at the moment, to suggest there will shift out of this trend. Near-to support is at 111.39-40.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Service PMI – Expectations – It is projected at 54.9 after 55.1 in the month prior.

* EU Service PMI – Expectations – It is expected at 54.4, which should leave the composite reading at 54.3, unchanged from the preliminary reading and down from 54.9 in June.

* Non-Farm Payrolls – Expectations – The July employment report holds its usual top spot as the indicator of the month. We forecast a 190k increase in jobs as manufacturing remained healthy.

* Earnings and Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The unemployment rate is expected to dip back to 3.9%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Nearly all labor market indicators have boasted of very tight conditions and extreme difficulty in finding qualified workers, which resulted in a huge jump in the labor force in June.

* Canada Trade – Expectations – is expected to narrow to -C$2.3 bln in June from -C$2.8 bln in May. Exports are seen growing 1.5% m/m in June after the 0.1% dip in May. Imports are projected to rise 0.5% in June after the 1.7% bounce in May that followed the 2.8% drop in April.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th August 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

The aftermath of the mixed US July jobs report will be one of many factors resonating with the markets in the days ahead. There were some tall hurdles for investors to leap recently, including firm US Q2 GDP, FOMC, a $1 tln Apple market cap, and the solid underlying employment data, but none have derailed the economic outlook, which remains mostly positive.

In the meantime, trade and tariffs will continue to dominate the conversation after the US announced plans to raise levies from 10% to 25% on $200 bln of Chinese goods, while China prepped another $60 bln in tariffs. Attention will also remain on earnings, though the pace of their release will be slowing. And though the FOMC, ECB, BoE and BoJ are all out of the way for now, their range of gradualism remains impactful. In Australia-Asia, both the RBA and RBNZ are seen on hold, though the Philippines central bank may hike 50 bps to 4.00%.

United States: As for the US economic calendar, inflation statistics will be on tap and modest gains are expected in the monthly CPI and PPI readings in July, keeping the y/y readings above the Fed’s 2% target. As for the other data releases, the wholesale inventories are anticipated to be flat in June, but see a small gain for overall business inventories and a more moderate but still-strong increase in June consumer credit after a May surge.

Specifically, the week will kick off (Tuesday) with updates on JOLTS job openings and consumer credit is expected to rise $16.0 bln in June, following a $24.6 bln surge in May. The MBA mortgage market report will be updated (Wednesday), along with EIA energy inventories. Headline and core PPI are projected to rise 0.1% in July (Thursday), following a 0.3% increase in both measures in June, while initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 6k to 212k in the week ended August 4, following a 218k reading in the week of July 28. Also on tap (Thursday) is wholesale trade with inventories seen flat in June, as indicated in the advance report, following a 0.4% May gain, while sales are estimated to rise 0.8%, after a 2.5% surge in May. The week rounds out with a forecast of a 0.2% increase in the July headline CPI (Friday), following a benign 0.1% gain in June.

Canada: Canada’s bond and stock markets are closed Monday for the Civic Holiday with trading resuming Tuesday. The July employment report (Friday) is the star of the show this week. A 25.0k gain is expected in total jobs during July following the 31.8k gain in June. Total average hourly earnings are seen expanding at a 3.9% y/y rate, matching the 3.9% clip in June that was the fastest since 2009. There is a trifecta of housing data this week — June building permits (Wednesday), June new home price index (Thursday) and July housing starts (Thursday). The July Ivey PMI is due Tuesday.

Europe: ECB is effectively on holiday with no speeches scheduled this week and the next council meeting still more than a month away (September 13). Against that background, the release of the ECB’s latest economic bulletin (Thursday) is unlikely to rock the boat.

There are plenty of data releases, although most of them second tier, and even the once so-important German manufacturing orders numbers (Monday) no longer have quite the market impact they used to have. The German industrial production data for June (Tuesday) are seen falling -0.6% m/m. More signs then that growth momentum is slowing down, which already has been evident in survey data. At the same time, the German sa trade surplus surplus (Tuesday) is expected to fall back slightly to EUR 20.0 bln with the June numbers from EUR 20.3 bln in May. Even if exports decline as expected, that alone is unlikely to quell criticism that Germany’s economy remains too export oriented and the current account surplus too large. It will, however, add to concerns that the global tide toward protectionism is leaving its mark on the German and Eurozone economies. The data calendar also includes French and Italian production numbers as well as Italian trade, and inflation data from Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

UK: BoE last week delivered its second 25 bp rate hike of what can be best described as a hyper-gradual tightening cycle. And while signalling that the bias remains for higher rates, it also left markets in little doubt that policy will remain on hold until after the legal Brexit date, of March 29 next year. BoE will remain a little quiet on the Brexit front due to the summer lull in London and Brussels, though negotiations will be continuing from mid August.The calendar this week features the July BRC retail sales report (Tuesday) along with the Q2 GDP, June production, and June trade data (which are all due Friday).

Japan: The Q2 GDP release (Friday) is awaited for an update on last quarter’s growth. The 0.2% contraction was the first after nine straight quarters of growth and was surely disappointment for BoJ, which left its accommodative policy in place last week. And any trade-related slowdown in China could spell further bad news if a softening in demand erodes exports. Other data this week includes June personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show the latter contracting at a -2.0% y/y clip from -3.9% y/y previously. Bad weather may have accounted for some of the weaker than expected May result. July bank loan figures are on tap (Wednesday), while the June current account (Thursday) should reveal a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 1,300 bln from 1,983 bln. June machinery orders (Friday) are forecast falling 1.0% m/m after the 3.7% May decline. July PPI (Friday) should warm to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, while the June tertiary industry index (Friday) is penciled in at -0.1% m/m from 0.1%.

China: The July trade report (Wednesday) is anxiously awaited given the increase in trade-related frictions. A slight narrowing is looked-for to $40.0 bln after the June balance widened to $41.6 bln from $24.3 bln. The jump in May imports may have been an attempt to beat the tariffs, which went into effect early last month. The markets will look to the July numbers for any signs of trade related slowing. July CPI (Thursday) is estimated at 2.1% y/y from 1.9%, with July PPI (Thursday) expected to cool to 4.4% y/y from 4.7%. July loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Friday.

Australia: RBA’s meeting (Tuesday) is the highlight, where no change is expected to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate. RBA follows up the meeting with the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, which will provide updated growth and inflation projections. Governor Lowe speaks on “Demographic Change and Recent Monetary Policy” (Wednesday). Housing investment (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.5% in June after the 1.1% gain in May.

New Zealand: RBNZ meeting (Thursday) is the main event. At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 7th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.943%, the 10-year JGB yield underperformed and climbed 1.0 bp to 1.03% as stock markets moved mostly higher across Asia, with trade quieter than usual as the summer lull sets in. Bourses in mainland China outperformed and the CSI 300 rose 1.64%. Nikkei managed gains of 0.65%, despite a stronger Yen, which was underpinned by a Reuters report suggesting BoJ had considered hiking rates this year. Earnings reports and a higher Oil prices had already underpinned a higher close in the US and the positive mood spilled over into the Asian session, although trade jitters and geopolitical concerns continue to lurk in the background. Meanwhile, the ASX underperformed and lost -0.42% despite RBA held its interest rate steady once again while maintaining a tightening bias, although with the inflation forecast cut slightly, RBA is expected to remain on hold well into next year. US stock futures are moving higher and the WTI future is also up with the September contract trading slightly above USD 69 per barrel.

RBA left the cash rate unchanged but tweaked the inflation outlook. The decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50% had been widely anticipated. On inflation, RBA Governor Lowe’s statement said that CPI is likely to be lower than previously expected in 2018, at 1.75%, below the 2%-3% target band, but at the same time inflation is seen rising more than previously forecast in 2019 and 2020. RBA said that it expects GDP growth to average a little more than 3% in 2018 and 2019. It stated that the unchanged policy is consistent with meeting the CPI target over time. Slower Chinese growth was noted. Market focus will now turn to upcoming release of the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP), this Friday, for details on the forecast tweaks. The Australian Dollar initially dipped on Lowe’s statement before more than reversing the losses.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Ivey PMI – Expectations – It is expected at 64.2, higher from 63.1 in June.

* US JOLTS & Consumer Credit – Expectations – Job openings anticipated to rise slightly at 6.74M in June, while Consumer credit is expected to rise $16.0 bln in June, following a $24.6 bln surge in May.

* NZ GDT Price Index

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian market wrap: Long yields moved broadly higher in Asia as stock markets gained. The 10-year JGB yield is up 0.9 bp at 0.111%, while 10-year Treasury yield fells back from highs and is down -0.4 bp at 2.969%. Stock markets started strong after the USA500 closed at the highest level since the Jan 26 peak, which helped investors to look past lingering trade jitters early in the session. Topix and Nikkei have wiped out most of their early gains, however, and as of 05:38 GMT were both up a mere 0.05% as the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Chinese export growth unexpectedly accelerated and the trade surplus with the US was near record highs, but despite this Chinese markets underperformed and the CSI 300 is down -0.73%. The Hang Seng still managed a 0.50% gain and the ASX rose 0.22%. US futures are trading mixed and Oil prices are slightly higher with the September WTI future trading at USD 69.26 per barrel.

China’s trade surplus narrowed to $28.1 bln in July from $41.5 bln in June. A modest narrowing was expected. Exports grew 12.2% y/y in July after a revised 11.2% gain (was +11.3%). Imports surged 27.3% y/y in July following the 14.1% gain in June. Exports to the US accounted for 19.3% of total exports in July, down slightly from the 19.7% in June, the largest share of any single country. Meanwhile, the share of imports from the US was 7.2% versus 7.8%, down from 9.2% as recently as December. Japan (9.0%), South Korea (9.7%) and Taiwan (8.5%) are the top three nations in terms of percentage of total imports.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Building Permits – Expectations – Permits are seen rising 1.0% after a 4.7% bounce in May, new home prices are seen rising 0.1% after the flat reading in May and starts are projected to moderate to a 220.0k pace from the lofty 248.1k growth rate in June.

* US Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – at -3.33M barrels this week from 3.8M last week.

* RBNZ Rate Decision and Press Conference – At the June meeting, RBNZ held rates at 1.75% and opened the door to a rate cut if necessary. It is widely expected that policy will remain into next year.

Support and Resistance levels



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.953%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.3 bp at 0.101%, while New Zealand yields dropped -7.2 bp after the RBNZ pushed out its forecast for a rate hike by a year as it lowered its growth forecast. Stocks moved mostly higher during the Asian session, with Chinese markets rebounding and the CSI 300 rallying 2.55%, while the Shanghai Comp rose 1.88%, the Shenzen Comp 2.88%. Trade war concerns were put aside for now, despite China’s announcement of 25% on an additional USD 16 bln of US imports, which matched Trump’s latest move in the trade war. Separately the US also announced new sanctions on Russia. Japanese markets underperformed and Topix and Nikkei are down -0.15% and -0.05% respectively, but up from early lows as the yen moved down from overnight highs against the dollar. US futures are moving higher.

FX Action: The New Zealand Dollar has dropped sharply on the lead of RBNZ’s dovish guidance after the central bank left the official cash rate unchanged at 1.75%. The RBNZ signalled that a rate hike to 2.0% would come by December 2020, compared to its previous guidance for March 2020. In the nearer term, the central bank also stressed a neutral stance, saying that the next move could be a tightening or an easing. This was more dovish than markets had been anticipating, and NZDUSD dove by over 1% in making 0.6664, the lowest level seen since March 2016. NZDJPY declined by a slightly bigger magnitude, while AUDNZD rallied to a new high for the year. RBNZ Governor Orr said before parliament that the central bank is in “watch and wait” mode for now, and said during an interview with Reuters that the principal concern is low business confidence. He also affirmed that global trade tensions were “not good” for the open New Zealand economy, but said that current modelling wasn’t showing much impact yet.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Canadian Housing starts and NHPI – Expectations – New home prices are seen rising 0.1% after the flat reading in May and starts are projected to moderate to a 220.0k pace from the lofty 248.1k growth rate in June.

* US PPI and Jobless Claims – Expectations – Headline and core PPI are projected to rise 0.1% in July, following a 0.3% increase in both measures in June, while initial jobless claims are estimated to fall 6k to 212k in the week ended August 4, following a 218k reading in the week of July 28.

* Japanese Preliminar GDP Q2 – It is anticipated at 0.3% q/q from the 0.2% in May. The 0.2% contraction was the first after nine straight quarters of growth and surely was a disappointment for the BoJ, which left its accommodative policy in place last week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10xth August 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -2.0 bp at 0.352% as of 6:09 GMT, versus declines of -1.8 bp and -1.1 bp in Treasury and JGB yields. Bonds are supported by a fresh rise in risk aversion that put pressure on stock markets during the Asian session. European stock futures are heading south in tandem with US futures. The spiral of tariffs is weighing on the global outlook and in Europe Brexit concerns and now also worries that European banks could be hit by the fallout from the crisis in Turkey and the slide in the lira is underpinning the flight to safety. The FT reported that the ECB’s supervisory arm has raised concerns about the exposure of some banks. The calendar is picking up today, with the focus on UK GDP numbers for the second quarter. The UK and France also released production numbers for June, Sweden and Norway have inflation data.

FX Update: The Dollar has rallied strongly into the London interbank open, driving EURUSD to a 13-month low of 1.1448, Cable to fresh one-year lows under 1.2800 and AUDUSD to three-week lows. The Greenback has also posted gains against most other currencies, most notably the Turkish Lira, which has tumbled to fresh record lows. As the Turkish lira continues to slide concerns a growing at the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism is raising concerns about the exposure of some of the Eurozone’s biggest lenders to Turkey, including BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas according to a FT report, citing two people familiar with the matter. The risk is that Turkish borrowers may not be hedged against the plunge in the lira and may begin to default on foreign currency loans. Turkish Treasury and Finance Ministry said yesterday that banks and non financial corporations face no fx or liquidity risk. BBVA, UnitCredit and BNP, but also HSBC and ING have banking operations in Turkey.

USDJPY has lifted out of a two-week low, while Yen crosses have traded lower, partly driven by flagging global equity markets and partly in the wake of above-forecast Japanese Q2 GDP data, which rose 0.5% q/q, above the median forecast for a 0.3% q/q rise. USDJPY has lifted toward 111.0 after earlier printing a two-week low at 110.67. The Dollar’s ascent has been concomitant with a bout of risk aversion on investor concerns about an escalating trade war, and the impact of US sanctions on Turkey and Iran. Beijing today doubled down in the face of domestic criticism about its stance in the trade spate with the US.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK GDP – Expectations – GDP should come in at 0.4% q/q and to 1.3% y/y from respective Q1 figures of 0.3% q/q and 1.2% y/y.

* UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production – Expectations –The Industrial production is expected to rise by 0.4% m/m in June, rebounding from the 0.4% contraction of May, with the y/y figure seen at 0.8% after 0.8% y/y growth in May. The Manufacturing production anticipated at 1.0% y/y from 1.1% seen in May.

* US CPI and Core CPI – A 0.2% increase in the July headline CPI is expected, following a benign 0.1% gain in June. The y/y headline index should be 2.9% in July, steady from June. The core index should also hold steady at 2.3%.

* Canadian Unemployment data – A 15.0k gain is expected in total jobs during July following the 31.8k gain in June. The unemployment rate is seen slipping to 5.9% after perking up to 6.0% in June from the 40-year low 5.8% in May as more people looked for work in June.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th August 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

Sanctions, tariffs, and trade frictions have increased market nervousness, but so far there’s been little observable real sector impact. Nevertheless, the meltdown in the Turkish Lira after the US doubled down on tariffs, raised worries over a full blown financial crisis with global repercussions. European markets shuddered over the exposure of its banking sector. And the ensuing drop in equities sent yields sharply lower too. While the fear of contagion will result in nervous trading this week, the problems appear more endemic to Turkey than systemic to the global financial sphere.

United States: There are plenty of US data reports to go around this week, though it’s concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, and most should show the economy continues to hum at a solid clip. But the releases may only provide a distraction with the focus still on sanctions and tariffs. July retail sales headlines (Wednesday), which are expected at a 0.3% increase. That would be a positive start to Q3. July industrial production (Wednesday) is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index (Wednesday) is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should decline to 23.0 in August, from 25.7, which would be just off the 6-month average of 25.2.

Q2 nonfarm productivity (Wednesday) is estimated to climb to a 2.5% pace, from a soft 0.4% reading in Q1. The Q2 gain should be driven by a 5.2% increase in output. However, the underlying trend in productivity remains disappointing and is one of the big mysteries faced by the Fed. Housing starts (Thursday) should rebound 7.4% in July to 1.260 mln, partially reversing a 12.3% drop in June. The weakness in June was in both single- and multi-family starts and we see a rebound in July. Trade prices (Tuesday) should post gains of 0.1% in July for both imports and exports, following respective -0.4% and 0.3% readings in June. In July, we expect an increase in petroleum import prices, but that could be partially outweighed by a stronger Dollar as well as tariffs which may restrain import prices. Import prices ex-petroleum are expected to rise 0.1%. The preliminary August Michigan sentiment reading (Friday) is expected to rise to 98.5, from 97.9 in July.

Canada: Canada’s data highlight also appears at the end of the week. This time it is CPI (Friday), projected to grow at a 2.5% y/y pace in July, matching the 2.5% y/y clip in June. CPI is seen rising 0.1% on a month comparable basis in July after rising 0.1% m/m in May and June. Bank of Canada projected a run-up to 2.5% CPI growth rates, so the July and June reports will not move the needle on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, June manufacturing shipment values (Thursday) are seen rising 1.0% m/m after the 1.4% gain in May. The calendar also has the July Teranet HPI on Tuesday. Existing home sales for July are expected Wednesday. The ADP employment figures for July will be released on Thursday. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: This week’s calendar focuses mainly on Q2 growth indicators and final July inflation readings, which are unlikely to hold many surprises. German ZEW investor confidence, though, will be watched very carefully, especially against the background of growing concerns over the exposure of European banks to Turkey, which is sliding deeper into crisis. Coupled with lingering concerns about Italy’s political situation, this is threatening to further add to a widening of spreads and will spark fears of a flaring up of the debt crisis.

The first release of German Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is expected to show a slight acceleration, while Eurozone Q2 GDP (Tuesday) is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q. The recovery is ticking along, but the balance of risks is starting to tip to the downside with Turkey now adding to bank concerns and volatility on bond markets. With risk aversion spiking higher on Friday, the timing of the responses to the latest ZEW Investor Confidence survey (Tuesday) will play a larger than usual role. The busy calendar also has Eurozone production and trade data for June, which will be overshadowed, however, by the 2nd reading of Q2 GDP numbers.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by the release of monthly labor data covering June and July (Tuesday), July inflation figures (Wednesday) and July retail sales (Thursday). The labor report is expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June, and average household earnings to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior. Steady wage growth, which has been running above inflation for some months now, was one of the justifications BoE gave behind its decision to tighten monetary policy this month. The inflation is anticipated to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July. As for retail sales, a rebound of 0.2% m/m is expected after the 0.5% contraction in June, which had been an unexpectedly weak figure, blamed on hot weather and the distraction of the World Cup for a good portion of the population.

Japan: The Revised June industrial production is due on Tuesday. Preliminary production dropped 2.1% in June, and slid 1.2% y/y. The July trade report (Thursday) is expected to see the previous JPY 720.8 bln surplus flip to a JPY 100.0 bln deficit.

China: Chinese July industrial production (Tuesday) is forecast to rise to 6.2% y/y from 6.0%, while July retail sales (Tuesday) should increase to a 9.2% y/y pace from 9.0% in June. July fixed investment (Tuesday) is estimated slowing slightly to 5.9% y/y from 6.0%.

Australia: The July employment (Thursday) is expected to rise 25.0k after the 50.9k bounce in June. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.4%, matching the rate in June. The wage price index (Wednesday) is seen expanding 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q2 after the matching the 0.5% rise in Q1. The index is expected to grow at a 2.0% y/y pace in Q2 from 2.1% in Q1. RBA governor Lowe (Friday) appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics. Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks at the Australian National University (Friday). RBA’s Deputy Head of Payments Policy Department Harris (Thursday) participates in a panel discussion at the Risk Australia 2018 Conference.

New Zealand: In New Zealand, PPI-output and PPI-input for Q2 are due Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields jumped higher from the off and as of 06:19 GMT, are up 1.8 bp at 0.326%, underperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which showed rates rising 1.6 bp and 1.0 bp respectively. Stronger than expected growth numbers at the start of the session added pressure on Bunds, after core yields already started to back up again as stock markets stabilized and Turkey jitters receded somewhat. Japanese markets bounced back overnight and European stock futures are moving higher alongside US futures. Bundesbank’s Wuermeling suggested one should not “over dramatize” the risk of Turkey contagion, adding that ECB didn’t see the need for a risk meeting so far. As long as there is not a further dramatic escalation, the turbulence is not expected to derail ECB’s course towards a phasing out of QE. Already released German July HICP was confirmed at 2.1% y/y. Still to come are German ZEW confidence, the 2nd reading of Q2 Eurozone GDP and UK labour market data.

FX Update: Safe haven positioning were unwound some today, which saw the Dollar and Yen traded softer against most other currencies after Ankara managed to halt the rout of the Lira, which in turn brought a reprieve in still-fragile global markets. Most stock markets found a footing in Asia, and USA500 futures are showing a 0.3% gain, reversing most of yesterday’s regular-session’s losses, though Chinese markets were an exception, declining after a batch of economic data showed the economy to have hit a rough patch, while investment growth was shown to have reached a record low. EURUSD settled around the 1.1400 mark, above yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1365. USDJPY recouped back toward the 111.0 level after posting a seven-week low at 110.11 yesterday. PBoC set the reference rate for USDCNY at 6.8695, versus 6.8629 yesterday. China’s statistics bureau said that the weaker Yuan, which has declined the most against the Dollar since April on record (in the era of the prevailing regime), and perhaps aiming to counter the wrath of President Trump, was a reflection of the Fed’s tightening cycle. AUDUSD firmed above 0.7770, finding a footing after 3 consecutive days of declines. Australia data showing business confidence rising provided the Aussie a supporting influence.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings Index – Expectations – Average Household Earnings expected to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior.

* UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The labour report expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June.

* Eurozone GDP – Expectations – Eurozone Q2 GDP is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q.

* German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – A slight improvement is anticipated in the headline number to -24.0, from -24.7 in the previous month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th August 2018.



FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp in early trade at 0.318%, underperforming versus Treasuries and JGBs which lost -1.4 bp and -1.1 bp respectively as risk aversion picked up again during the Asian session. Turkey slapped additional tax on American goods rather than trying to defuse the situation and the central bank is still shying away from a rate hike to stabilize the currency. Stocks were under pressure in Japan and China and US futures are also heading south, but European futures are moving higher in opening trade after strong growth data out of the Eurozone yesterday. Today’s calendar focuses on UK inflation data and events include a German 30-year auction. Italy is closed for a public holiday.

FX Update: The Dollar has posted broad gains amid a backdrop of rekindling risk aversion. Turkey’s Erdogan escalated the confrontation with the US by announcing tariffs on US cars, alcohol and cigarettes. Chinese stocks came under pressure again, and PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.8856, the highest since May 2017, up from yesterday’s fixing at 6.8695. Both the Bank of Indonesia and HKMA have intervened to support their respective currencies. The USDIndex posted a 14-month high at 96.87 while EURUSD concurrently printed a 13-month low at 1.1316. Cable traded below 1.2700 for the first time since June 2017, and AUDUSD fell to its lowest levels since January 2017. USDJPY posted an eight-day high of 111.43 amid a broader bid for the Dollar, though a weakening in stock markets in Asia capped gains, which stimulated Yen safe-haven demand.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Consumer Price Index – Expectations – CPI expected to remain steady at 2.4% y/y in July.

* US Retail Sales – Expectations – July retail sales headlines expected at a 0.3% increase, with a 0.5% ex-auto gain. That would be a positive start to Q3.

* US Industrial Production and Empire Index- Expectations – July industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after rising 0.6% in June. The Empire State index is estimated to slip to 20.0, from 22.6 in July and compares to an 8-month high of 25.0 in June.

Support and Resistance Level



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.8 bp at 2.880%, 10-year JGBs up 0.7 bp at 0.094% as of 05:35GMT, as stocks move up from early lows on trade talk hopes. Asian sold off early in the session amid concerns over global growth and particularly China, after a Sino-related tech slump saw Wall Street heading south yesterday. Reports that China and the US are preparing a low level round helped to put a floor under markets, however, and mainland China bourses managed to move higher, while other indices are up from early lows. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.78% and -0.21% respectively. The Hang Seng is still down -0.395, but CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are now up 0.61% and -0.20% respectively. The Kospi slumped -0.87% after returning from holiday and the ASX 200 is down -0.035. Meanwhile, US futures are moving higher with Chinese markets. Oil prices are slightly up from lows and the September US oil future is trading at USD 65.10 per barrel.

FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have both weakened, giving back recent gains amid an improvement in risk appetite. The US and China have agreed on a new round of trade talks, while Turkey has managed to halt the rout of the Lira and secure major investments from Qatar and China’s Alibaba. The USDIndex (DXY) is showing a 0.3% decline, at 96.44, heading into the London interbank open, while EURUSD is concurrently showing a 0.3% gain, earlier printing a two-session high of 1.1397, putting in some space from yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1316. USDJPY has settled in the upper 110.00s after printing a low in Tokyo at 110.46. AUDJPY, viewed as a forex market proxy on risk appetite in global markets, is showing the biggest move with just over a 0.5% gain. Over the near-term, the Dollar and the Yen will likely remain apt to weaken before settling as developments on the latest phase of Sino-US negotiations are awaited.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – expected to grow by 3% YoY in July.

* US Housing Starts – expected to increase to 1.26 mln in July, compared to 1.17 mln in June, with building permits also expected to increase breaking the 1.3 mln barrier.

* US Initial Jobless Claims – stabilisation to approximately 215,000 slightly up from 213,000 from last week. Continued jobless claims are expected to decrease slightly to 1.75 mln from 1.755 mln last week.

Support and Resistance Level



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th August 2018.



FX News Today

FX Update: USDJPY has continued to trade with little direction, lodged in the upper 110.00s. Ditto for the Yen crosses today, which are trading at about the same levels they were this time yesterday. Stock markets have remained stable, and PBoC lifted the Yuan’s at the fixing today, which prompted a bid, albeit modest, for the Australian Dollar. There is a feeling of wariness behind the calm, with the recent strength of the Dollar having exposed vulnerabilities in a number of emerging world economies that have a high proportion of borrowing in the U.S. currency (Turkey, South Africa, and Argentina, among others). Markets are also looking to next week’s new round of “low level” talks between the US and China on trade with some skepticism going on given recent failed attempts for dialogue.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 2.879%, while JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to 0.087% as stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia after a strong close on Wall Street. Earnings reports and trade talk hopes helped to lift sentiment in the US, with most markets in Asia, ex China, posting gains. The Topix is up 0.67%, the Nikkei 0.42% and the Hang Seng managed a gain of 0.58% so far. Mainland China bourses underperformed, however, and the CSI 300 lost -0.56%, the Shanghai Comp -0.35%, amid lingering concerns about the health of the Chinese economy, with bonds underperforming and the 10-year yield jumping 4.3 bp. Trade talks with the US may be resuming but Trump stressed that the US is not going to any agreement until they get a “better deal” that is “fair”, signalling that he continues to push for more concessions. US futures are trading mixed with gains in the Dow Jones future contrasting with losses in S&P and NASDAQ futures. Oil prices meanwhile are little changed and the September contract is trading at USD 65.45 per barrel.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Euro Area Consumer Price Index – expected come out at 2.1% YoY in July, same as last month. Core CPI should also remain stable at 1.1%.

* Canada Consumer Price Index – both CPI and the Bank of Canada core CPI for July are expected to remain stable at 2.5% and 1.3% respectively.

* US Consumer Sentiment – forecast of a small rise in the August index to 98 compared to 97.8 in July.

Support and Resistance Level



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 20th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th August 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

Turkey, trade, and tariffs dominated the headlines last week, though so far it’s difficult to quantify any real economic effects. Negative references to tariffs were widespread in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report and have been noted in the Fed’s Beige Book. Trump warned that the US would not take the issue “sitting down,” with the Treasury prepping more sanctions/tariffs and rating agencies downgrading Turkish debt to “junk” rating. Also, the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins on Thursday, with Chair Powell’s keynote address Friday. The global data calendar is thin and will keep the focus on other exogenous and geopolitical factors.

Sino-US trade talks will resume this week with “low level” talks scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. Just the whiff of a resumption in negotiations was sufficient to staunch a probe below 25k in the Dow and 2.8k in the S&P 500 last week. While any major breakthrough on the thorny issue seems doubtful in the near term, reports of a possible Trump-Xi summit helped boost Wall Street further heading into the weekend. The WSJ indicated negotiators are working on a “road map” for talks on trade issues that could end with a meeting between the two leaders at multilateral summits in November. That may not forestall the next round of $200 bln in US tariffs on Chinese products by month-end, though substantive progress could buy some time. Note that Mexico cited progress on NAFTA negotiations and hopes for a conclusion mid-week, pending lingering issues on the rules of origin in the auto sector. A breakthrough on Mexico/NAFTA represents a very bullish signaling risk.

United States: The week of August 20 will be relatively light on the US data front, but the minutes of the July 31-August 1 FOMC meeting (Wednesday) will likely be of interest to market participants for any indications regarding the future course of policy. Markets see FOMC on course to raise rates two more times this year, in September and December, barring any shocks to the economy. Regarding the data, existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rise following declines in the prior three months. New home sales (Thursday) are also expected to rise, partially reversing June weakness.

FOMC minutes to the latest policy meeting aren’t likely to contain much for the markets as there weren’t any surprises from policymakers. As expected, the Fed left policy on hold with an 8-0 vote. The statement did include an upgrade to the growth outlook, consistent with what had been seen in the data leading up to the meeting. Growth was characterized as “strong,” up from the “solid” at the June 12-13 meeting. Inflation was said to have moved “close” to the 2% target. Rate guidance was repeated with Fed saying “gradual increases in the target range with the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion in economic activity.” Fed also reiterated risks to the outlook appear “roughly balanced.” The policy statement did not include any comments on trade frictions and tariffs, but these were likely discussed. However, other than the potential for slower growth and higher inflation, both of which have been mentioned in Beige Book reports, the discussion will most likely be hypothetical at this stage. Mexico’s Economy Minister hoped to finish up bilateral issues with the US on NAFTA by the middle of this week, citing most issues as “advancing well” as talks continue. An agreement with Mexico on NAFTA would be the first significant trade deal for Trump after stepping up pressure on allies and foes alike.

Canada: Bank of Canada speakers feature this week, as Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and Governor Poloz participate in panel discussions. However, markets expect that the appearances this week are unlikely to offer any fresh policy insights – Wilkins (Monday) will participate in a panel discussion at the Central Bank Research Association, Frankfurt, Germany. Poloz is in Jackson Hole on Saturday (August 25) participating in a panel at the Fed’s annual gathering. The Bank will announce rates on September 5. Expectations suggest that BoC will look past the 3.0% y/y rise in July CPI amid temporary factors (seasonal jump in travel tour prices was a stand-out) and core inflation measures that are holding at 2.0%.

Europe: Market jitters continue with Turkey contagion risks and Sino-US trade relations remaining in focus and overshadowing the data calendar. ECB starts to slowly return from the summer break and Bundesbank President Weidmann will attend a Foreign Press Club in Berlin on Thursday. However, markets do not expect ECB to turn dovish, despite the renewed widening of Eurozone spreads and the spike in Italian yields. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, is expected to come out on Thursday as well.

The latest sell-off in Italian assets was to a large extent related to confrontational comments from Deputy Prime Minister Salvini, who implied that EU deficit rules were partly to blame for the Genoa bridge disaster as they prevented necessary maintenance. The rise in Italian yields is less a speculative attack as markets fear that the populist government could be flirting with an exit from the monetary union. Italy appears to be more sensitive to Turkey contagion, while the country’s effective exposure may suggest this is also related to political resistance to severing the link between bank and government debt, which remains higher in Italy than in other major Eurozone countries. Italy may still need ECB, but the country is also a litmus test for the view that a too accommodative ECB policy is reducing the kind of market pressure that forces governments to implement structural reforms.

UK: The calendar is relatively light this week, though Brexit negotiations, which recommenced last Thursday after a summer hiatus, will continue and will likely generate some potentially market-moving headlines. As has usually been the case, anything that points towards a no-deal exit from the EU could be taken as a Sterling selling cue, and anything suggesting that a deal can be worked out could be taken as a Sterling buying cue. Cable last week racked up a sixth consecutive week of declines, with political and associated Brexit-related risks keeping the Pound in a lower trading band. Latvia’s foreign minister said on Friday that there was a 50-50 chance for a no-deal Brexit, which UK’s foreign minister Hunt concurred with, remarking that “time is running out.” The main data this week are monthly government borrowing figures (Tuesday), the August CBI surveys for industrial trends (Tuesday), and distributive sales (Thursday).

Japan: Consensus expects that the June all-industry index (Wednesday) will increase 0.3% m/m versus the prior 0.1% increase. The July inflation data will be the week’s focal point. The national CPI (Friday) consensus forecast suggests a rise to a 0.4% y/y rate from 0.7% last month, while core inflation is expected to remain relatively stable at 0.6% y/y. Inflation still remains well below BoJ’s 2% target.

Australia: RBA governor Lowe (Tuesday) is expected to speak at an Australian Securities and Investments Commission event. Assistant Governor (Financial Services) Debelle will also speak about low inflation at the Economic Society of Australia Business Luncheon on Wednesday.

New Zealand: Retail sales will be out on Tuesday, with imports, exports and the trade balance expected to come out on Friday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 21st August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.4 bp at 2.833%, as the USD weakened 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp at 0.083% and yields picked up in Australia and New Zealand. Reuters reported that Trump accused China and Europe of manipulating their currencies, which followed on the heels of comments lamenting Fed’s rate hikes. Asian stock markets are mostly higher after muted gains on Wall Street yesterday. Japanese indices moved up from early lows as the Yen weakened and while the Topix is still down -0.27%, the Nikkei is up 0.20%. The Hang Seng gained 0.37%, while mainland China indices continued to outperform as state-backed funds were seen buying stocks to help stabilize the market. The CSI 300 is up 1.84%, and the Shanghai Comp 1.39% higher. US equity futures are posting small gains. Things may look more stable on the surface and Turkish markets at least are closed now for the rest of the week, but EM jitters continue as Venezuela’s 95% devaluation takes hold.

FX Update: The Fed has become an unexpected focus due to the president’s remarks regarding Chairman Powell, along with comments from FOMC voter Bostic, both in front of the FOMC minutes of the latest policy meeting due Wednesday, the Jackson Hole symposium beginning Thursday, and Powell’s speech on Friday. Reports that Trump again commented on his Fed chairman, wanting a less hawkish stance, along with WSJ’s indication that Fed is debating the speed of its QE unwind, knocked yields lower and led to an apparent squeeze at the long end amid warnings of a record speculative short position in the 10- and 30-year maturities. Intermediate and longer dated yields are down over 4 bps, with the 5-year challenging 2.70% and the 10-year testing 2.80%, while the long bond has slipped further below the 3% level, even as Wall Street extends gains.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – net borrowing is expected to have decreased in July by GBP2.3bln, compared to an increase of GBP4.5bln last month.

* New Zealand Retail Sales Q2 – retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% on a QoQ basis, compared to an increase of 0.1% last quarter.

Support and Resistance Level



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd August 2018.



FX News Today

FX Update: The Dollar has lifted after five straight down sessions. The USD index (DXY) is showing a 0.3% gain heading into the London open, at 95.41, rising above yesterday’s high but remains well below the 14-month high seen last week at 96.98. EURUSD has concurrently sunk to a two-day low of 1.1542, putting in some distance from yesterday’s two-week peak at 1.1623. USDJPY has also been on the up, printing an eight-day high of 110.93, and extending the rebound from Monday’s eight-week low at 109.77. Wall Street finished moderately yesterday, and US500 futures are presently flat, while US Treasury yields are lower. Fed funds futures are showing 50-50 odds for a 25 bp hike in December. There is conjecture among Fed watchers that Chairman Powell will retain a hawkish tone in his keynote speech on Friday, despite President Trump’s calls for looser policy. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has taken a tumble amid political turmoil regarding leadership challenges faced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. AUDUSD has lost over 0.7% in falling to six-day lows under 0.7300.

FOMC minutes: The most important point in the minutes was that “many participants” believed another hike would be appropriate “soon”, which could be interpreted as an indication for a September tightening. Participants noted that the funds rate was moving closer to the range of estimate of a neutral level, with a number of participants emphasizing uncertainty in estimates of that level, and agreeing that “accommodative” language may no longer be appropriate fairly soon. Participants generally noted the strength of the economy in Q2, as well as favorable factors that were supporting above-trend growth, including financial conditions. But “several” stressed that transitory factors may have played a role, including an outsized increase in exports. All officials viewed trade as an “important source of uncertainty.” There was some discussion regarding firms having greater scope to increase prices due to strong demand or rising input costs. There was also talk over the implications of the flattening yield curve. The minutes indicated that balance sheet discussions would continue in the fall.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.813% and 10-year JGBs fell back -0.2 bp to 0.083% amid a wider decline in Asian rates. Australian bonds outperformed as the ASX declined and AUD weakened as Prime Minister Turnbill faces leadership challenges. Elsewhere, stock markets traded mostly mixed, with mainland China and Hang Seng underperforming. Topix and Nikkei posted marginal gains of 0.02% and 0.18%, while Hang Seng and CSI were down -0.83% and -0.59% respectively as of 05:18GMT. The additional US and China tariffs come into effect in the middle of ongoing trade talks and China said it will lodge a complaint with the WTO. US stock futures are heading south after a mixed close yesterday and with the Fed minutes confirming that further rate hikes remain on the cards, but also showing some concern about the impact of possible prolonged trade battles. Markets are also looking ahead to the Jackson Hole meeting amid political risks for Trump from the legal battles of his former advisors.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* Jackson Hole Symposium – The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and is a forum for the top central bankers, policy experts and academics of the world who come together to discuss policy issues. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. This year’s topic relates to the changing market structure and its implications for monetary policy. Most awaited speech is by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

* ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – The accounts, similar to the FOMC minutes, aim to provide an overview of financial, economic and monetary developments aimed to provide the rationale behind policy decisions. Currency response depends on the accounts’ content.

* US Jobless Claims – Consensus forecasts expect that claims will increase slightly compared to last week.

* New Zealand Trade Balance – Trade balance expected to deteriorate in July, registering a $0.5bln decline.

* Japan Consumer Price Index – CPI expected to decline and stand at about 0.4% YoY, compared to 0.7% last month.

Support and Resistance Level



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th August 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

Fed Chairman Powell justified the FOMC’s gradualist approach to monetary policy in his Jackson Hole speech. He emphasized the uncertain nature of the two key policy variables — the natural rate of unemployment and the neutral real rate of interest. And in noting the difficulty in using them as navigational tools, he also solidified Greenspan’s risk management strategy still in effect today around the world as central bankers attempt to balance the risks of moving too quickly and choking off growth, or too slowly and allowing a destabilizing overheating.

United States: US markets rallied to end the week on a positive note after Chairman Powell showed no willingness to take on a more hawkish stance, even in the face of sustained strength in economic activity. And what’s more important, he doesn’t see signs of any overheating and suggested it might be prudent to look beyond inflation for signs of excesses. That means the FOMC need not become more hawkish but can maintain its gradualism policy stance. The USA500 and NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs in the process.

Though the US economy continues to diverge from the rest of the world, its strength can help support Asian and European strength in the US, along with an ongoing accommodative posture from ECB and BoJ, remain supportive meanwhile, continuing to support global gains. There are several data releases of interest this week, including the second look at GDP, along with income and PCE, but none will alter the general outlook. Also highlighting this week is July personal income and consumption (Thursday), which will help fine tune GDP forecasts. It also includes the FOMC’s favoured inflation guide, the PCE deflator. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should rise to 128.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and this trend is expected to continue over coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics. Preliminary August Michigan sentiment (Friday) is likely to slip down.

Canada: In Canada, GDP is the highlight, with data out for June and Q2. June GDP (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% surge in May. Q2 real GDP (Thursday) is anticipated to grow 3.2% (q/q, saar), accelerating from the 1.3% rate of expansion in Q1. A pick-up in consumption spending and a positive contribution from net exports should drive Q2 GDP growth. A 3.2% Q2 GDP gain would overshoot BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet growth looks to moderate in Q3 and the details of the Q2 GDP report should align with the Bank’s views, suggesting that the report will not threaten policy gradualism. The current account (Wednesday) is seen running a -C$15.0 bln deficit in Q2 from -C$19.5 bln in Q1 as the goods trade deficit narrowed. The July industrial product price index (Friday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer sentiment index (Thursday) round out the docket. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: ECB’s unofficial summer break is slowly coming to an end and on their return officials will face an increasingly uncertain world that is bound to fuel diversions of opinion at the council. Trade jitters, Brexit risks and the potential fallout from Turkey’s troubles are only part of the multitude of risks that have underpinned volatility on peripheral bond markets and seen Italian officials in particular calling on ECB to scrap the planned phasing out of net asset purchases.

The lack of reform will further undermine competitiveness and growth potential going forward at a time, when external risks are mounting. Indeed, despite still positive growth rates, the Eurozone is not well equipped to deal with another major crisis, as ECB has much less room to maneuver this time around. Data releases this week are likely to confirm the overall picture of ongoing economic expansion and a gradual pick up in underlying inflation. French Q2 GDP (Wednesday), is likely to be confirmed at just 0.2% q/q and the Italian reading (Friday) also at just 0.2% q/q leaving the focus on the more forward looking confidence indicators, which come in the form of the German Ifo (Monday) and the European Commission’s ESI economic confidence indicator (Thursday). Against that background, the German official unemployment numbers (Thursday) are expected to drop a further -3K in August, which should leave the adjusted jobless rate at a very low 5.2%. The Eurozone unemployment rate remains considerably higher, but has been falling steadily and we expect a further decline to 8.2% with the July reading (Thursday), from 8.3% in June. Preliminary German HICP (Thursday) is seen steady at 2.1% y/y and French HICP (Friday) is expected to fall back marginally to 2.5% ) from 2.6%.

UK: UK markets are closed today for the UK’s latest August public holiday. Political and associated Brexit-related risks remain in play, manifested mostly in the forex market by keeping the Pound in a lower trading band than it would be otherwise. The UK government last week issued advice for individuals and businesses in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which, while apparently aiming to put to rest some of the scare stories that have been circulating in the populace, served to bring home the level of disruption this scenario would have on businesses. Time is running out for negotiations to avoid the no-deal scenario, with October’s EU leaders’ summit being the agreed on deadline. A “known unknown” wildcard is the risk that Prime Minister May will face as a leadership challenge in coming weeks. This week’s data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the publication of monthly lending and money supply figures by BoE (Thursday) and the latest Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday).

Japan: The calendar doesn’t get underway until Thursday, when July retail sales are due. Sales are expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y pace of contraction from 1.5% for large retailers, but accelerate slightly to a 1.8% y/y clip overall, from 1.7% previously. The remainder of data come on Friday. Tokyo August CPI should tick up to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% overall, and remain steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. July unemployment is expected steady at 2.4%, with the job offers/seekers ratio a touch higher at 1.63 from 1.62. July industrial production is penciled in rebounding 0.5% m/m versus the prior 2.1% decline. July housing starts and July construction orders are also due.

China: China reveals the official August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Friday), which is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2 in July, and is down from 51.9 in May. The markets will keep a close eye on the data as signs of slowing in manufacturing have been a worrying development in the last couple of months and especially as the tariff frictions have escalated.

Australia: A sparse slate has private capital expenditures and building permits on Friday. Private capital expenditures are expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. Building permits are projected to fall 3.0% in July after the 6.4% gain in June. There is nothing scheduled from RBA this week. The next event is the September 4 policy meeting, where we expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting.

New Zealand: Building permits for July (Thursday) are the lone highlight. RBNZ provided dovish forward guidance this month along with no change in rates, saying rates will be steady through to 2020.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 28th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th August 2018.



FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields pared some of their earlier gains and are down -0.2 bp on the day at 2.844%, 10-year JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp but at 0.088% also down from earlier highs as the buoyant mood on equities starts to fade and the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Asian stock markets still benefited from hopes for a bilateral trade deal between the US and Mexico and mostly extended yesterday’s gains after a strong close on Wall Street. Questions over where the deal will leave Canada seem to limit the room for further gains however, as investors clamour for detail. Topix and Nikkei are still up 0.26% and 0.19% respectively, but off highs. The Hang Seng managed to hang on to a modest 0.17% gain, while mainland China underperformed with CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.19% and -0.12% respectively. US futures are slightly higher, Oil prices fell back from highs above USD 69 per barrel.

FX Update: USDJPY flipped back above 111.00, continuing an oscillation of this level for a third consecutive session, holding below the three-week high that was printed on Friday at 111.48. Yen crosses have been more buoyant, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, posting respective 4- and 3-week highs during the Tokyo AM session, although both crosses have since come off by between 20 and 30 pips. The Yen’s overall weakness has been concomitant with the USA500 closing at a record high yesterday and generally upbeat tone in global equity markets. Yield differentials remains a fundamental bullish driver for USDJPY, but the risks being posed by the US-China trade war, which doesn’t so far show any signs of cooling in the wake of the US-Mexican agreement in principle, has been capping upside potential in recent months, which is expected to remain the case. Regarding the US-China trade situation, Trump in the wake of his stage-managed Mexico announcement) that “it’s just not the right time to talk right now.” USDJPY has resistance at 111.48-50 and 112.15, and support at 110.93-95.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – Expectations – expected to remain unchanged at 6.5% y/y for June.

* US Consumer confidence – Expectations – Consumer confidence should rise to 127.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and we expect this trend to continue over the coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics.

* US Goods Trade Balance – Expectations – The advance indicators for July should show a deterioration in the Trade Balance for Goods to -$70.5 bln (-$68.5 bln) after widening for the first time in four months to -$67.9 bln in June.

Support and Resistance Level



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th August 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th August 2018.



FX News Today

FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer overall, although it has continued to hold steady in a narrow range against the Yen. USDCAD dropped to its lowest level since June 6, at 1.2887, driven by reports that Canada is ready to make significant concessions on diary to secure a trade deal with the US. This is potentially good news as it raises the chances for Congress to approve the White House agreement with Mexico in the context of a revamped NAFTA deal. Elsewhere, EURUSD extended yesterday’s correction from the four-week peak at 1.1733, posting a 1.1674 low. AUDUSD fell to a two-day low at 0.7308, and Cable has seen a two-day low at 1.2854, with the Pound so far unaffected by news reports that the UK and the EU are likely to further push the deadline for a Brexit agreement to mid-November rather than October’s EU summit. USDJPY, in contrast to other Dollar pairs, has posted less than a 20 pip range so far in the Tokyo trading, defined by 111.13 and 111.31, which continues a phase of tight consolidative price action into a fourth consecutive session. EURJPY and other Yen crosses, meanwhile, have declined moderately. PBoC set the USDCNH reference at 6.8072, fractionally up on yesterday’s 6.8052.

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp at 2.871%, pulling back from highs slightly over 2.85% yesterday. JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp at 0.089%, but also off earlier highs. Wall Street closed with marginal gains yesterday after the US500 pulled back from record highs over the 2900 mark, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.13% respectively amid optimism over U.S. growth after an improvement in consumer sentiment. Mainland China bourses are in the red, however, with investors remaining cautious despite reports that Canada is willing to make considerable concessions to secure a trade deal amid ongoing concerns over China-US trade prospects. As treasury yields are approaching 2.9% rate-sensitive shares start to feel the pressure. The Hang Seng moved sideways, while CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.47% and -0.33% respectively. US futures are moving higher, though while oil prices are down.

Charts of the Day



Main Macro Events Today

* US Q2 GDP results (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the week. The Gross Domestic Product figure, is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. Usually, high growth or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative. GDP growth is expected to remain at the same levels as the previous quarter.

* Canadian Current Account Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian current account balance for Q2 is expected, on the basis of consensus forecasts, to improve significantly from -19.5 bln to -15.2 bln. Usually, the more positive the better for the currency.

* Retail trade for July (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The index captures the aggregate sales made for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy, but consensus expectations is that July trade will decrease by 0.3%.

Support and Resistance Level



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 03rd September 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 03rd September 2018.



Main Macro Events This Week

A shorter week – due to a holiday – for the US and Canada will resume on Tuesday, rather appropriately, as they both take a “time out” from trade talks, which will restart on Wednesday. The 90-day clock was set in motion by the Trump team, which notified Congress of its intent to sign a deal with Mexico, while still holding the door ajar for Canada. The deadline for public comment on the next round of $200 bln in tariffs on China also looms on Thursday, keeping trade as a focal point for the ambivalent markets to kick off the month of September. Emerging markets remain fragile as well, as the firmer Dollar, rising rates and global protectionism fears take a toll on sentiment.

United States: Employment will be the focus for the markets in the week of September 3. For the US economic calendar, front and center will be Friday’s employment report, which is estimated to rise at 210k payrolls in August, following a tepid 157k gain in July. The jobless rate should slip to 3.8% from 3.9%. Overall, conditions in the labor market continue to be solid. Other data will include the ISM index (Tuesday) estimated to slip to 58.0 in August from 58.1 in July, which will still leave the index close to a 14-year high of 60.8 in February. Also, construction spending should rise 0.4% in July, partially reversing a weak -1.1% reading in June that followed strong gains of 1.3% and 1.7% in May and April respectively. Vehicle sales are expected to rise to 17.0 mln (Tuesday) from a 16.7 mln pace in July. The July sales rate reflected slowing car and truck sales, and in August we see a rebound in both. MBA mortgage data is due (Tuesday), along with the trade deficit expected to widen to -$49.8 bln in July, from -$46.3 bln. The ADP employment survey (Thursday) is forecast to rise 205k in August vs 219k in July. A boost is expected in Q2 productivity growth to 3.1% from 2.9%, with an associated upward revision to output growth to 5.0% from 4.8%, thanks to the upward revision to Q2 GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.1%, along with -0.8% in unit labor costs from -0.9%.

Canada: This week is highlighted by Bank of Canada’s announcement (Wednesday), which it is widely expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. BoC Governor Poloz was dovish on the pop to 3.0% y/y CPI growth in July, saying it was in line with their projection and due to “transitory factors.” GDP came in close to expectations for Q2, expanding 2.9% (BoC expected +2.8%). Economic data features August employment (Friday), seen rising 10.0k after the 54.1k gain in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.8%, matching July’s. The July trade report (Wednesday) is anticipated to show a widening to -C$1.6 bln from -C$0.6 bln in June. Exports are seen falling 1.0% after the 4.1% surge in June. Productivity (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.3% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1. Building permits number (Thursday) is projected to gain 3.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 2.3% drop in June. The Ivey PMI for August is due Friday. BoC Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks on Thursday, presenting an economic progress report. A BoC official now presents forecast updates a day or so after the four announcements per year that do not correspond with the release of the Monetary Policy Report.

Europe: Trade risks and tariffs are back in focus, as ECB officials return from holidays. With the recovery still on, but risks from tariffs and Brexit clouding over the outlook, the council seems increasingly split on the timing and speed of policy normalization. With the end of Draghi’s term coming into sight, support for a less dovish central bank head may be gathering strength against that background. For now though, ECB speakers including Praet (Wednesday), Lautenschlaeger (Thursday) and Mersch (Monday) are likely to stick to the official line and promote patience, prudence, and persistence in monetary policy.

The data calendar this week includes final PMI readings as well German orders and production data for July, however data is not expected to fundamentally change the overall picture or outlook. Manufacturing (Monday) and services PMIs (Wednesday) are likely to confirm overall Eurozone readings at 54.6 and 54.4 respectively, leaving the Composite at 54.4. Both sectors continue to expand and job creation continues, although growth momentum is slowing down and uncertainty about the outlook is leaving its mark, as export order growth, in particular, continues to slow down. German manufacturing orders (Thursday) already slumped -4.0% m/m in June and we expect at least a partial rebound in the July numbers and a rise of 1.8% m/m. Similarly, production (Friday) is seen rising 0.4% m/m, after the -0.9% m/m contraction in June. The July IFO reading jumped higher and German PMIs remain at robust levels, which suggests a solid Q3 GDP number and the recovery in orders and production numbers, if confirmed, will verify that the German recovery remains intact. More up-to-date survey and manufacturing numbers are likely to overshadow the detailed reading of Eurozone Q2 GDP (Friday), which is likely to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, with the breakdown expected to prove that domestic demand was the main driver of growth. Accelerating import growth meanwhile is keeping a light on net exports.

UK: Brexit will remain front and center as negotiations return to full swing this week following the summer holiday season. On the data front, the economic calendar this week is highlighted by the release of the August PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI is expected (Monday) to come in at 53.8 after 54.0 in the month prior. Construction PMI (Tuesday) has us anticipating a dip to 55.0 following July’s 55.8. As for the services PMI (Wednesday), a rise has been forecast to 53.8 from July’s 55.5 reading. As-expected readings wouldn’t likely have much impact on markets, which are presently predisposed to be most sensitive to any downside surprises given the backdrop of prevailing Brexit uncertainties and worries about global trade protectionism.

Japan: The August services PMI is due Wednesday. It fell to 51.3 in July, and was 51.6 a year ago. July personal income and consumption data are due Friday. The latter is expected to post a 1.0% y/y decline versus the prior -1.2% and has been in contraction since February.

China: The August services PMI (Wednesday) is forecast at 52.5, after tumbling 1.1 points to 52.8 in July. It was at 52.7 a year ago.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.