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First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD has been in a sideways trend for the whole of March, with a slight predominance of bearish trends. This is exactly the kind of movement that was forecasted last week. Pressed by the bears, the pair tried to reach support at 1.2200, but failed even this, and fixed the local bottom at 1.2239. After that, the pair turned around and completed the trading session in the 2018 Pivot Point zone, at 1.2350;

- GBP/USD. At the time of writing the previous forecast, the indicators on D1 pointed to the north, believing that both the two-week uptrend and the more global one, which began in January 2017, would continue. This scenario was supported by 40% of experts as well, referring to the height of 1.4145. This forecast turned out to be correct, and at the very beginning of the five-day period the pair went up sharply. Basing on information from the Bank of England on Thursday, March 22, it even tried to break through resistance 1.4145, but failed to gain a foothold above this level, and rolled back very soon. As for the end of the week, the pair spent it making fluctuations around the same level of 1.4145;

- 70% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 90% of indicators on H4 and D1 expected the continuation of the USD/JPY movement in the medium-term channel. This was what happened - it dropped to the level of 104.63 on Friday, after which there was a slight retreat, and the pair met Saturday at the level of 104.75;

- Now, cryptocurrencies. As for bitcoin, the experts expected its rise to 8,850-9,400, and by the middle of the week the pair BTC/USD fulfilled the above task, reaching the level of 9,145.
For the pair LTC/USD, a rise to the zone of 170.00-181.00 was forecasted. However, after its fall on Saturday and Sunday, it seemed to be impossible. But the bulls managed to regain strength and managed to raise the pair to a height of 174.00 on Wednesday. Similar dynamics was demonstrated by the Ripple, having risen to the set level of 0.70, but still failing to gain a foothold above it.
But the Ethereum did not please the experts who expected its growth to the level of 655.00. In reality, it was only able to reach 587.00.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- 60% of analysts expect the pair EUR/USD to rise to the level of 1.2415, and then even higher - to the height of 1.2445. The next target is 1.2520. Graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 agree with this forecast.
As for most of the indicators on D1, they have taken a neutral position. This time, 40% of experts and 15% of oscillators side with the bears, giving signals that the pair is overbought. The support levels are 1.2240, 1.2200 and 1.2155;

- GBP/USD. Most analysts (60%) still forecast a decline of the pair first to 1.4115, and in case of its breakdown, even lower - to 1.4080. However, only 5% of the indicators agree with this development. The remaining 95 percent, supported by 40% of analysts, have sided with the bulls, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. The nearest resistance levels are 1.4215 and 1.4275, the final target is January 2018 high, at 1.4345;

- Opinions on the future of the USD/JPY looks almost the same as last week: 70% of experts, 90% of indicators on H4 and D1, look to the south, expecting the pair to continue moving in the medium-term down channel. The targets are 104.00 and 102.65.
At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 warns that, before continuing to fall, the pair may rise to 105.70-106.30 for a while, and possibly even higher - to 107.00. 10% of oscillators, giving signals that the pair is oversold, expect correction as well;


- The forecast for the basic currency pairs looks as follows.
BTC/USD - Experts expect the continuation of the uptrend. Targets that the pair can reach by the middle of the week, are 9,870 and 10,080. At the same time, it is possible that the bullish impulse will be stronger, and it will rise to the zone 11,500-11,750. At the end of the week, there may be a change of trend and a relatively small decline;
Similar dynamics are expected for other pairs. ETH/USD: targets are 740.00 and 866.00. LTC/USD: 193.40 and 217.30. XRP/USD: 0.670, 0.730 and 0.890.

We would like to stress at this point that even minor events can influence the trends and volatility of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we strongly suggest that you pay attention to smart money management, which, combined with leverage of 1:1000, will significantly reduce your trading risks. After all, to buy 10 Bitcoins, 100 Ethereums, 500 Litecoins or 100,000 Ripples, with such leverage you will only need $100, and you can keep the rest of your money in reserve.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4, expected the EUR/USD to grow, and this forecast turned out to be correct. The pair coped with the task quickly and, having risen by 125 points on Tuesday, reached the height of 1.2475. After this, the trend reversed, the pair returned to the borders of the mid-term side corridor, where it has been moving for the whole of 2018, and completed the week in the zone of its Pivot Point at 1.2325;

- GBP/USD. 40% of analysts and 95% of indicators sided with the bulls last week, waiting for the continuation of the uptrend. Levels 1.4215 and 1.4275 were called as resistance levels. As for the remaining 60% of experts, they expected the pair to go down to the horizon 1.4080. As a result, both forecasts were implemented, with a certain tolerance. At first the pair climbed to 1.4243, and then turned and went south, finding the local bottom in the zone 1.4010, not far from which it finished the week, at the level 1.4015;

- even though most experts expected the medium-term downtrend to continue, one third of them, in anticipation of correction, looked north. 10% of the oscillators supported such development, giving signals that the pair was oversold. As for graphical analysis, it indicated the target - the height of 107.00, to which the pair rose on Wednesday, March 28. After that, it turned and fell to the level of 106.27 by the end of the week;

- and now, cryptocurrencies that moved all the way to the south all week, even though many oscillators insistently indicated they were oversold. Optimists call this fall a prolonged correction, pessimists talk about the beginning of the end of the crypto currency boom. Whatever it is, the fact remains - the crypto market "shrunk" by 70% during three months of 2018, and its capitalization is now only 275 billion USD.
There are several reasons for this fall: this is ongoing hacker attacks on crypto-exchanges and client wallets, more unsuccessful ICO projects, and the increased pressure on this market by regulators. The Chinese authorities made an announcement on further steps on Thursday, and in Japan, five exchanges withdrew their applications for licensing, realizing that they will not be able to meet the requirements of the FSA - Financial Services Agency of this country.
As a result, bitcoin dropped to the level of 6520, Litecoin - down to 108.00, ripple - 0.45, and the Ethereum fell to the values of last June to the zone of 365.0.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The overwhelming majority of experts have taken a neutral position, waiting for the pair to go on moving in the mid-term lateral channel of 2018. As for trend indicators and oscillators, about 60% recommend the sale of the pair, 40% - purchase, or are painted neutral gray. The above allows us to say that the pair is likely to stay within this channel for the first half of the week. The nearest support is in the zone 1.2240, the next one is 1.2155. Resistance is at the levels is 1.2445 and 1.2535.
Higher volatility of the pair can be expected on Wednesday and Thursday after the release of data on the European consumer market and information about the ECB meeting. On Friday, the market is expecting data on the labor market from the US. One of the most important indicators here is the NFP, which determines the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. According to forecasts, it may fall by about 35%, which can weaken the dollar considerably. However, data on average wages in the US will be published at the same time with the NFP, which may provide some support to the US currency.

- GBP/USD. As in the case of EUR/USD, half of analysts vote for a sideways trend. As for the indicators, about 50% of them on D1 point to the east. 30% of experts, 15% of the oscillators, giving signals that the pair is oversold, and graphical analysis on H4, waiting for the pair to return to the level of 1.4245, side with the bulls. The bears this week are represented by 20% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1, expecting the fall of the pair to the corridor 1.3780-1.3875.
It should be noted that the number of bears' supporters increases to 55% in the medium term;

- USD/JPY. It is impossible to use indicators at the moment - their readings are a mixture of green, red and neutral gray colors. As for the experts, 55% of them believe that the uptrend that started last week will continue, and the pair will rise to 107.30. The next target is 108.50.
The remaining 45% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, on the contrary, are confident that the pair will not be able to overcome the resistance of 107.00 and will go first to support 104.65, and then even further downwards - to zone 101.20-104.30.

- The forecast for the main cryptocurrency pairs is the following.
BTC/USD: experts expect the continuation of a downtrend to the horizon of 5970, and in case of its breakdown, down to 5425. After this, the trend should reverse and return to the 8000 zone, which can take two to three weeks to complete.
Similar dynamics are expected for other pairs. ETH/USD: decrease to the zone 200.00-275.00 and the subsequent retreat into the zone 500.00. LTC/USD - drop to 85.00-105.25, then rebound to 173.80. XRP/USD - according to experts, this pair can find the bottom at the level of 0.25-0.30, after which it will for some time return to the level of 0.63.





Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The forecast for EUR/USD turned out to be generally correct: the pair did not go beyond the 2018 mid-term side channel, going down in anticipation of data on NFP, only to the level of 1.2217. As expected, the Nonfarm payroll sagged significantly, more than three times compared to the values of the previous month, to which the pair could not help reacting. However, the reaction was fairly calm: the dollar lost just 60 points to the euro, after which the pair completed the week in the strong support/resistance zone 1.2280;

- GBP/USD. The main forecast for this pair was a sideways trend, in the narrow framework of which the pair stayed for the first half of the week. Thursday and Friday brought some volatility, but as a result, the five days change was only about 70 points, and the pair froze at 1.4085;

- The forecast, made by the majority of experts for USD/JPY, was absolutely correct. 55% of them were sure that the uptrend will continue, and the pair will rise to 107.30. And this was what happened - it rose to the level of 107.48, which, taking into account the standard backlash, is almost a 100% hit. As for the end of the five-day period, the pair completed it 60 points below the weekly maximum, at 106.88;

- Cryptocurrencies, just like most major currency pairs, spent all the time in a sideways trend. It seemed in the middle of the week that the bulls took over, and the long-awaited growth of bitcoin, ethereum and other altcoins finally, started. But ... the pairs returned to the values of the beginning of the week. So, the result of the past seven days can be considered inconclusive both for the bulls and for the bears.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Graphical analysis on D1 believes that the pair completed the previous five-day period in the Pivot Point zone of the side channel, in which it will stay for the next few days. The boundaries of the channel are 1.2215 and 1.2355. The most likely breakthrough is to the south and a decline to zone 1.2090-1.2150. Almost 65% of experts agree with such a scenario, supported by indicators on D1.
As for the remaining 35% of analysts and indicators on H4, in their view, the dollar's weakness caused by the data on the US labor market will continue, and the pair will rise to the level of 1.2355-1.2415;


- The main forecast for the GBP/USD is as follows: possible (but not compulsory) small growth to resistance 1.4125, and then falling first to support in the 1.4000 zone, and, in case of its breakdown, a decline to 1.3915-1.3965 zone. This forecast is supported by almost 75% of experts, graphical analysis on D1, as well as about 15% of oscillators signaling the pair is overbought. Only a quarter of analysts agree with the positive outlook and the growth of the pair to 1.4200-1.4240;

- USD/JPY. With a high degree of probability, the mid-term lateral trend which began in mid-February this year, will continue. The only question is a more precise definition of its boundaries. The bulls are supported by about 65% of analysts who expect the pair to rise to the horizon at 108.00. As for the bears, their immediate goal is the level 105.65. In case the dollar continues to lose its positions, the pair may drop to support 105.25 and even another 60 points lower;

- As for cryptocurrencies, it is useless to try to determine the exact levels, considering their super-high volatility. One can only talk about the direction of trends and approximate targets. In the coming week, experts expect that the bulls' efforts will still be rewarded, and starting Monday, April 09, the main pairs may expect growth, although small and temporary, BTC/USD: rise to 7,820-8,360. For the ETH/USD, the target is the zone 440-511, LTC/USD: 155-175, XRP/USD: 0.56-0.67.




Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

For some reason, it is a common opinion that trading in foreign exchange markets is, like chess, mainly a male business. However, this is not at all the case, and women, with their perseverance and patience, can quite often give a hundred points to the odds to the "strong" half. The results that a trader from Thailand has recently showed, can serve as an example: she has managed to increase her deposit by 70 times in less than a month!

Miss Sarinya is 35 years old, she lives in Northern Thailand in Chiangrai Province, where she sells bags and all kinds of fashion accessories. And as she said, in order to have some additional income, a few years ago she decided to take up Forex.

"I did not finish any special training courses," says Sarinya, "I studied, receiving information from all sorts of online resources. I am still not very strong at technical analysis, I am just used to do her best always and in everything, and to bring the matter to the result. I tried many different trading strategies, sometimes I lost, sometimes I earned. As a result, I developed my own method - just trade, set a profit target, and stop when you start losing money."

- For many people, the most difficult part is to stop in due time. Don't you mind to part with the money in such cases? - we ask Sarinya.

- I have no passion for money, as I do not strive to make a lot of money quickly. I do not at all expect to become a millionaire with the help of Forex," - Sarinya smiles. - As I said, I just want to have extra earnings.

- And you are great at this: just in a few weeks’ time, having started from $ 35, to turn them into $ 2500 is an outstanding result, frankly speaking.

- Yes, I learned about NordFX from the partner of this company - Miss Tip. At first, I got used to the platform, and then I began to trade.

- And what are your impressions?

- Everything is fine, including withdrawing funds: - all goes quickly and without problems.

- As far as we know, you do not use expert advisors, you trade on your own, "manually". But such a trade takes a lot of time. What do your family and friends think about this?

"Well, since I'm making money, they do not mind me doing this."

- If it's not a secret, having received $ 2500 from NordFX, how will you spend it? Will you have a big family dinner, go shopping or spend the money on anything else?

"I'll spend it on something else," Sarinya smiles again. - Simply put, I will use it for further trading on Forex.

- And the last question: what advice do you have for beginning traders?

- Nothing special. One just needs to learn more and trade more!


#forex #broker #nordfx #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #profit

For starters, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which turned out to be absolutely true for many major and cryptocurrency pairs:

- EUR/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to consolidate in the Pivot Point zone of the medium-term side channel in 2018. The level of 1.2215 was indicated as the lower limit, the upper one was 1.2355. At the same time, 35% of analysts suggested that the US dollar will continue to weaken, provoked by data on the labor market, and the pair would be able to break through 1.2355, rising above this level.
It was this scenario that was implemented. The pair climbed 115 points by the middle of the week, reaching the height of 1.2395, after which it turned and returned to where it had been expected - to the medium-term Pivot Point in the zone of 1.2328;

- The forecast for the pair GBP/USD had supposed a certain growth, but not the one that really happened. Recall that the growth above the horizon 1.4200 was supported by only a quarter of analysts, but the dollar weakening surpassed even their expectations, and the pair almost reached the level of 1.4300 on Friday. However, the strength of the bulls dried up soon, and it rolled back to the level of 1.4240;

- The forecast made by most experts on the pair USD/JPY, suggested continuation of the medium-term lateral trend, which began in mid-February, and its growth to a height of 108.00. That's exactly what happened. The pair moved within the corridor 106.60-107.40 for the whole week, after which it tried to move one level above, but, having reached the height of 107.77, could not get fixed there and returned to the highs of the previous week;

- The forecast for cryptocurrencies turned out to be absolutely correct as well. All major crypto-pairs went up as expected.
The script for the BTC/USD provided for an increase to 7,820-8,360. In fact, the pair reached the mark of 8,200.
For the ethereum, the target was the zone 440-511, it managed to climb even slightly higher - to the height of 527, after which, it returned to the 490 mark by the end of the week.
For the LTC/USD, the scenario envisaged a rise to 155-175, however, even though the pair went up confidently, the bulls' enthusiasm dried up a little earlier - at the height of 133.
And, finally, ripple. The experts set a height of 0.67 as the main target for it, to where it got on Friday evening.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the pair going down first to the level of 1.2215, and then, possibly, to the minimum of the medium-term side corridor at the horizon 1.2155. However, the geopolitical situation in which Syria is involved, as well as the trade war with China, and a number of other factors, can make influence the situation and lead to a further weakening of the dollar. In this case, as 40% of analysts believe as well as most of the oscillators on D1, the pair can continue to move to the resistance levels at the top of the channel, these are 1.2410, 1.2475 and 1.2525;

- Almost all the indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, both on H4 and D1 (85%) are determined to buy the GBP/USD. But as for the experts, here the bulls' advantage is not so impressive: 60% by 40%. The main support is located at 1.4145, then 1.4065 and 1.4010. The resistance levels are 1.4345 and 1.4425.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the advantage is shifted to the bears, and here 60% of analysts vote not for growth, but for the fall of the pair, expecting its fall to the March lows around 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. Almost all indicators are painted green following the trends of the last days and weeks. However, we should pay attention to the fact that the pair is at the upper boundary of the strong resistance zone, which can be traced starting from this February. More than 70% of experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above this zone, and its weekly fluctuations will occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. However, one third of analysts are sure that the pair will return to the side corridor 106.65-107.00, and, if it breaks its lower border, it may drop another 100 points lower, reaching the local bottom at 105.65. This development is also confirmed by the graphical analysis on D1;

- As for cryptocurrencies, experts expect this week that the pair BTC/USD will move along the level of 8,000, making fluctuations in the range of 7,570-8,575. ETH/USD may try to conquer the height of 600, but the ethereum will not be able to get fixed there and it will return to the levels around 485-510. For the pair LTC/USD, experts point to the height of 145 as the target, and to the zone 0.70-0.740 for the pair XRP/USD.





Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- The pair EUR/USD continues to keep in the zone of the 2018 mid-term side channel 1.2200-1.2525, more precisely, in its central part, gradually reducing volatility in comparison with the beginning of this year. Last week, the experts called the horizon 1.2215 as the nearest level of support for it, as for resistance, the horizon 1.2410 was named, in the area of which the pair fixed its minimum - 1.2250 and maximum - 1.2413, showing the fluctuation range of less than 165 points. As for the end of the week session, the pair recorded the result at 1.2288;

- The GBP/USD pair. Here, almost all indicators (85%), as well as 40% of analysts, were determined to buy it, calling resistance 1.4345 as the nearest target. The pair went north right from the very beginning of the week, and even rose 30 points above the target level at some point, but the breakdown turned out to be false. Not having kept at the height of 1.4375 even for an hour, it turned around and, as 60% of experts had expected, rushed down, reaching the weekly bottom in the 1.4000 zone on Friday;

- giving a forecast for the pair USD/JPY, most experts (70%) had believed that its weekly fluctuations would occur in the range of 107.00-108.50. Taking into account the standard backlash, this forecast turned out to be correct, and the pair stayed within 106.87-107.85 in its lateral movement. It finished the week not far from the level where it began, at the horizon 107.64;

- with a small tolerance, the forecast for cryptocurrencies was absolutely correct once again. The forecasted trip to the north did take place. For BTC/USD, it assumed that it would reach the height of 8.575. In reality, the pair rose to the mark of 8.535 by the end of Friday, and then went further up to the target.
For the etherium, the goal was the height of 600, which it reached on the night from Friday to Saturday. At the same time, the pair LTC/USD overcame the height of 145.00, which had been called by experts, and the pair XRP/USD rose above the level of 0.85.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR / USD. The overwhelming majority (75%) of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1, continue to insist on the movement of the pair in the side channel 1.2200-1.2415. In this case, it is highly likely that at first the pair will drop to its lower limit, and will go up only after it beats off it. The readings of the oscillators confirm such a scenario, 15% of which are already signaling the pair is oversold.
If we talk about the prospects for early May, graphical analysis and about half of analysts suggest that the pair will rise to the highs of February 2018. to the area of 1.2555. In the bears win, the pair can go to the level of 1.1915-1.2085.
The formation of trends can be influenced by the decision on the interest rate and the ECB press conference on Thursday April 26, as well as the annual data on US GDP, which will be released on Friday April 27;


- GBP/USD. It is clear that all the trend indicators have turned to the south following by the last week's results. However, 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that 1.4000 will be the lower limit of the weekly side channel 1.4000-1.4245. The next resistance is located at 1.4375. The bullish version is also confirmed by oscillators, 20% of which signal the pair is oversold.
40% of analysts side with the bears who believe that the pair will still be able to break through the level of 1.4000 and fall first to support 1.3885, and then even lower - to zone 1.3745;

- USD/JPY. 85% of analysts, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and 80% on D1, graphical analysis and the vast majority of oscillators vote for the strengthening of the dollar and further growth of the pair. On H4, the graphical analysis draws the corridor 107.25-108.05, on D1, the range of oscillations is wider - first decrease to support at 106.60, and then rise to the tops in the 109.00 zone. This scenario is consistent with the oscillators, a quarter of which give signals that the pair is oversold.
Analysts who support the fall of the pair to support 105.00 are only 15% at the moment. However, in the medium term, this possibility is not ruled out by a third of experts;

- Cryptocurrencies. After the BTC/USD rose to 9,000, experts expect the pair to roll back into the zone 7,785-8,200. In this case, it is highly likely that the fall will be even stronger, and the pair will return to the zone of 6,585-7,100.
In case the etherium breaks through the support of 500.00, the pair ETH/USD can return to the zone 360-430. Supports for the pair LTC/USD are 135, 122 and 110, as for the pair XRP/USD, they are 0.67, 0.55 and 0.43.
The opportunities for growth of these cryptopairs, according to experts, are limited to Saturday-Sunday highs of April 21 and 22.





Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- as we said, the key event last week was the ECB President Mario Draghi press conference on Thursday, April 26. The pair EUR/USD had descended to the lower boundary of the three-month lateral channel around 1.2200 by that date. Recall that this behavior had been predicted by almost 100% of experts. But further on, their opinions diverged: 75% expected the pair to go up and return to the mid-term trading range, and 25% were confident that the euro would lose its positions further.
The dispute between the analysts was resolved by Mr. Draghi, who admitted that the Eurozone economy was unlikely to preserve the last year's growth rates. And although he said that the ECB will gradually reduce the QE quantitative easing program, many experts felt that its terms will likely be extended beyond 2018. As a result, the euro lost another 150 points. True, then a rebound occurred and the pair completed the week at 1.2130;

- GBP/USD. Strengthening of the dollar could not but affect the British pound. As a result, the forecast, for which about 40% of analysts voted, was implemented - the breakdown of the horizon is 1.4000 and the decline to support 1.3745, near which, at 1.3780, the pair and met the end of the weekly trading session.

- USD/JPY. 85% of analysts, graphic analysis and the clear majority of indicators had voted for the strengthening of the dollar and further growth of the pair to the heights in the 109.00 zone. This almost unanimous opinion was absolutely true, and the pair completed the five-day period at the height of 109.05;

- Cryptocurrencies. After the BTC/USD rose to 9,000, experts had expected the pair to roll back about 1,000 points down. However, this did not happen, and Bitcoin was in a sideways trend along the horizon of 9,000 for the whole of the week, making fluctuations in the range of about ± 500 points.
Other pairs behaved in a similar way. The level of 150.00 became Pivot Point for LTC/USD, and for XRP/USD, it was 0.845. And only Ethereum showed a noticeable recovery, reaching the mark of 709.83 on April 24. True, then a pullback followed, but despite this, the pair completed the week with an increase of about 10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If only a quarter of experts voted for the transition of the pair to the zone of 1.1915-1.2085 last week, their number has increased to 60% now. About 80% of the indicators are painted red as well. Additional support for the dollar is provided by the expectation of data on the labor market in the US on Friday, May 4. According to forecasts, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) may increase from 103K to 198K, which does not exclude the fall of the pair by another 100-115 points lower, to support 1.1800.
This time 40% of experts and graphic analysis on D1 have sided with the bulls. In their opinion, the fall below the level of 1.2200 has been temporary, and the pair will return to the medium-term horizontal channel within a week or two and will reach a height of 1.2415. Oscillators confirm this possibility, 20% of which signal the pair is oversold;

- GBP/USD. It is clear that all the trend indicators have turned to the south following the last week's results. As for the experts' opinion, here the supporters of bears have a slight advantage - 55% versus 45% for bulls. Bull sentiment is also supported by a quarter of the oscillators, giving signals that the pair is oversold, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
If the "growth party" wins, the pair will go up, starting from the support of 1.3750, aiming to rise above the level of 1.4000 and, possibly, to reach the height of 1.4075. The nearest resistance is 1.3840.
If, however, the bears' expectations come true and the pair goes south, the support will be located at the following levels: 1.3585, 1.3455 and 1.3300;

- USD/JPY. 70% of analysts, supported by most of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, expect the continuation of the uptrend. The targets are 109.80, 110.45 and 111.25. The remaining experts together with the graphical analysis on H4 believe that the pair has already reached a local maximum, and now it is expected to decline first to the level of 108.35, and even lower in case of its breakdown. The targets in this case are 107.40 and 106.60.
It should be noted that graphical analysis on D1 also does not exclude a drop to the level of 106.60, but only after the pair reaches heights in the area of 111.00, at least;


- Cryptocurrencies. Experts expect the growth of the BTC/USD first to the level of 10.000, and then 500-700 points higher. The main support is 8.620. In case of its breakdown, it is possible to decline to the level of 7.785.
The main forecast for the pair ETH/USD is an increase to the height of 785, the next target is 865. The nearest support is 594, the next one is 500. LTC/USD: the goal is to return to the April 24 high, 165.00, the support is 140.00. XRP/USD: the goal is to rise to the level of 0.92, and then to the zone 0.942-0.985, the support is 0.7230.





Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

NordFX has once again been recognised for the high quality of its services. The latest recognition came from international portal FXDailyinfo, which, after a round of voting, named the economic analysis and reviews of our experts the best in the industry.

The portal has been running the FXDailyinfo Awards series for several years now. The awards are based on open voting by the community, which decides which of the many companies in financial markets have distinguished themselves in a number of areas. This year, NordFX won by a large margin in the ‘Best News and Analysis’ category, having received nearly 70% of the popular vote.

We are sincerely grateful to all who voted for us for valuing the continuously hard work of our international analyst team. We hope that our output will continue to be both interesting and useful to the widest possible trading audience.

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. For the third week in a row, the dollar continues to strengthen its positions, having won back about 500 points from the euro. Easing of tension in trade relations with China has rendered serious support for the US currency. By Friday, May 04, as most experts (60%) supported by 80% of the indicators had expected, the pair reached the lower border of the 1.1915-1.2085 range, after which a slight rebound followed, and it stopped at 1.1960;

- GBP/USD. The victory of the dollar over the British pound, which lost about 890 points in three weeks, is even more convincing. This "fiasco" was promoted by the weak macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain, and the weakening of hopes for the Bank of England's early change of its monetary policy, and the unresolved dispute with the EU regarding the Irish border. As a result, as predicted by 55% of analysts, oscillators and graphical analysis, the pair dropped to the values of this January and completed the five-day period at 1.3530;

- USD/JPY. 70% of analysts, supported by most of the indicators, were expecting the continuation of the uptrend. The target was the height of 109.80, which was reached by the pair on the first day of May. After that, it climbed another 20 points and, as predicted by the graphical analysis, turned around and left to the south, ending the week's session almost where it had started, in zone 109.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the outlook for the cryptocurrency pairs traded in the NordFX brokerage company turned out to be absolutely correct. As we have repeatedly said, because of the rather thin market and increased volatility in this segment, the main goal of the experts is to correctly predict the trend. And this was achieved. As for the levels of support/resistance that had been declared, they are rather approximate benchmarks rather than precise targets.
So, the past week has confirmed that Bitcoin loses its dominance, gradually giving way to altcoins. Thus, despite the fact that the total crypto market capitalization has reached 438 billion dollars, the Bitcoin share in it shrank to 35.9%.
The pair BTC/USD could not reach the landmark of $10,000, stopping at 9.825. Ripple hardly reached the target as well, having managed to conquer only the height of 0.8850. But the pair ETH/USD completed the task in full, fixing the weekly maximum at the height of 806 dollars. The same applies to LTC/USD. The goal for this pair was a return to the high of April 24, $165.00, which was what happened with an accuracy of 100%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The market froze in anticipation, whether the long-awaited rebound of this pair will follow. We will say straight away that serious economic prerequisites for this are not yet around. But the market is still the market, and therefore about a third of the experts sided with the bulls, expecting the pair to rise first to resistance 1.2085, and then another 50-70 points higher. Such a development is confirmed by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 15% of oscillators, which give signals on D1 that the pair is oversold.
40% of analysts believe that the pair will take a breather and will move in the side channel 1.1900-1.2000 for a while. And, finally, the remaining 30% of experts are sure that the march to the south is not over yet, and we will see this pair in the zone 1.1800-1.1850 soon;

- A similar divergence of opinions can be observed when assessing the future GBP/USD. 40% of analysts are for the growth of the pair, 30% are for the sideways trend and 30% vote for its fall. 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators are painted red. At the same time, 25% of oscillators on D1 indicate the pair is oversold, which is a signal strong enough to go up.
As for the graphical analysis, it predicts the movement in the side corridor 1.3470-1.3625 for the next few days, after which the pair should go to the north. The nearest target is 1.3790, the next one is 1.4000.
The decisive day for forming the trend is likely to be Thursday, May 10, which can be called the Day of the Bank of England. And much depends on whether and how much the interest rate on the British pound will be raised, and what the Central bank's chairman, Mark Carney, will say during his press conference.
The support levels are 1.3470 and 1.3300;


- Last week's reciprocal movement of the pair USD/JPY completely confounded not only the experts, but also the indicators: half of them recommend buying, the second half - selling. It is only graphic analysis, which both on H4 and D1 uniquely points to the south, calling 108.60, 107.40 and 106.60 as targets. The resistance levels are 109.50 and 110.00.
If we talk about forecasts up the end of May, it is already 70% of analysts who expect the pair to rise to the area of 111.50-112.00, and further - to an altitude of 113.40;

- Cryptocurrencies. Fundamental news around crypto market show increased activity of institutional investors, so experts expect the pair BTC/USD to continue to grow to the level of 10,300-10,700. The main support is 8.620. The forecast for the pair ETH/USD is growth to the $ 900 zone, support at the horizons of 700 and 595. LTC/USD: the goal is to rise to the levels of 175-180. XRP/USD: the goal is the same, to rise to the level of 0.92, and then to the zone 0.942-0.985, the support is 0.7230.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost evenly: one third sided with the bears, one third sided with the bulls, and 30% took a neutral position, expecting a sideways trend. As a result, as if fulfilling an order, the pair first went down to the level of 1.1822, then rose by 145 points and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.1940.
In total, in less than a month, from April 19 to May 09, the pair lost about 580 points, without any serious corrections, which caused serious financial damage to those traders who had opened positions to buy against the trend and could not stand such an impressive drawdown of the deposit;

- a similar divergence of opinions could be observed when assessing the future of the GBP/USD. We could expect any changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 10, but everything went on without surprises, and the pair stayed practically within the boundaries of the side corridor, which was drawn for it by graphical analysis, 1.3460-1.3615.

- The pair USD/JPY also moved into a sideways trend, making return-oscillating movements in the range of 108.75-110.00 the second week in a row. The week ended with the pair being close to the beginning of the week, in the horizon, which can be called Pivot Point in the first half of May - 109.40;

- Cryptocurrencies. Experts expected the bitcoin to grow above the 10.300 mark, and the pair BTC/USD did, from the very beginning, go up, but could not even reach 10,000. Having reached the mark of 9,950, it turned and rolled down. the fall was accelerated by the Mt.Gox sell-off and by the statements of two super-billionaires - the head of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett and the Microsoft founder Gates.
The Japanese crypto-exchange Mt.Gox sold bitcoins worth more than $ 70 million, and the market immediately responded to it by a large-scale correction. Things were made even worse by Warren Buffett, who said that cryptocurrencies would end badly, and Bill Gates, who called bitcoin one of the most speculative things in the world. As a result, the pair fell below a very strong support level of 8.620 on Friday, May 11.
ETH/USD and XRP/USD could not achieve their goals either. it was only the LTC/USD that fulfilled the task, reaching the height of 183.75. But it could not resist the general crypto market trend, and, having made a quick U-turn, went down following the "colleagues", falling to the lows of the last few weeks in the area of 135.00.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. More than 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as indicators on H4, expect the pair to continue to grow, which it started to do in the middle of last week. The nearest target is zone 1.2050-1.2100, the next one is 1.2215. Less than one third support the bears this time, but trend indicators on D1 and 15% of oscillators, indicating the pair is overbought, agree with them. In case they win, the pair can return to the horizon 1.1800. The next support is at the level of 1.1715;


- GBP/USD. Considering that the pair has already fully worked out the reversal pattern "double top", most analysts (60%) vote for the pair's growth. This script is also supported by graphical analysis. Signals that the pair is oversold are sent by 20% of oscillators on D1 as well. The nearest resistance is 1.3625, the target is 1.3765.
As for the remaining 40% of experts, in their opinion, the pair could fall to the level of 1.3450, and, in case of its breakdown, 150 points lower, to support 1.3300;

- it is impossible to form any consensus on the future of USD/JPY at the moment. Both the opinions of analysts, and the indicators' readings are divided approximately equally: one half are for the growth, one half are for the fall of the pair. As for the graphical analysis, it indicates a further decrease in the pair to the lower boundary of the two-week lateral channel 108.75-110.00 both on H4 and D1. Having reached it, it is quite possible that the pair will turn around and go up to the level of 110.00. This can happen before the end of May, and it is already 70% of experts who agree with this;

- Cryptocurrencies. At the end of Friday, May 11, the pair BTC/USD was slightly below the lower boundary of the three-week side corridor 8.620-9.955. Many analysts believe that if the week does not receive another portion of negative news, the pair will return to the borders of this channel.
However, a number of experts believe that the bitcoin will continue to fall, and in this case it can find a local bottom at the level of 7.720. The pair will be able to get back to the marks around 10,000 only by the very end of May.
Analysts expect downtrends to continue during the coming week for the rest of the currency pairs: ETH/USD, LTC/USD and XRP/USD. However, this correction, in their opinion, will be temporary, and all the pairs are expected to return to the highs of the first week of May, by the end of the month.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that about 70% of experts expected that the pair would rise at least to the height of 1.2050. However, the bulls' strength dried up before it approached the level of 1.2000, where the initiative was intercepted by the bears. Trend indicators on D1 and 15% of the oscillators sided with them, giving signals that the pair was overbought. As expected, the pair was quick to reach the horizon 1.1800, and then moved further down, having touched the local bottom at the level of 1.1750;

- GBP/USD. This pair moves in a fairly narrow side corridor for the second week in a row. Most analysts (60%) voted for its growth last week. But, having gone 65 points to the north, the pair turned around and, as was expected by the remaining 40% of experts, dropped to the support of 1.3450, near which it met the end of the session, having lost only 75 points during the week;

- 70% of experts predicted that the pair USD/JPY would rise to 110.00 by the end of May. But it was much ahead of expectations, having reached this level of resistance already on Tuesday, May 15. After that, turning it into a support, the pair went another 100 points higher. Then it lost 25 points and finished the five-day period at the level of 110.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. Some analysts believed that the BTC/USD pair should return to the borders of the three-week side corridor 8,620-9,955, and on May 14 it reached the level of 8,850. However, it didn't manage to gain a foothold at this level, and soon the pair retreated to the values of the beginning of the week in the zone 8,000. In general, the week was quite calm for other major cryptopairs: the Litecoin as well as the Ethereum and the Ripple completed it almost in the same place where they started.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts predict the movement of the pair to the east along Pivot Point 1.1800. Graphical analysis on D1 also draws a side channel, indicating the boundaries as 1.1750-1.2000. 15% of the oscillators also indicate a certain growth of the pair, giving signals that it is oversold.
The remaining 40% of analysts expect the continuation of the downtrend. Support is at the levels of 1.1700, 1.1665 and 1.1585.
Talking about important events of the upcoming week, we should pay attention to the meeting of the FRS Committee on Open Markets on Wednesday, May 23, the ECB meeting on monetary policy on Thursday, May 24 and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, J. Powell, on Friday, May 25.


- GBP/USD. The experts' opinions are divided almost equally: 35% are for the growth of the pair, 35% are for its fall and 30% vote for the continuation of the lateral trend.
As for graphical analysis, it also predicts lateral movement in the range 1.3450-1.3615 on both H4 and D1, after which a powerful collapse and the transition of the pair to 1.3300 zone is expected to follow.

- USD/JPY. 65% of experts, 95% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators, as well as graphical analysis on D1 expect the continuation of the uptrend. The nearest goal is the height of 112.00, the next one is 100 points higher.
35% of analysts have voted for a decline, supported by 10% of the oscillators, which signal that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 does not exclude the possibility of temporary correction down to the horizon of 109.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. The main forecast of stock exchange experts on the BTC/USD pair assumes the growth of bitcoin in an effort to reach $10,000. Support is at the levels of 8,100 and 7,900. As for the oscillators, there is no unity among them. For example, MACD on H4 demonstrates a small divergence with a price chart, which indicates the possibility of the growth of the pair. On the other hand, the indicator of trading volumes MFI (Money Flow Index) on H4 is in the overbought zone and looks to the south. On D1, the picture is exactly the opposite.
As for other cryptopairs, analysts believe that their correction is completed, and now they will strive up, following the bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH/USD): the nearest target is 740.00, the next one is 835.00, the support is 635.00. Litecoin (LTC/USD): the goals are 150.00 and 180.00, the support is in the area of 130.00. Ripple (XRP/USD): the target is 0.8850, the main support is 0.6140.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

Traditionally, summer is the time when business activity slows down: VIPs are basking in the sun on their snow-white yachts, the heads of the Central Banks leave the boring offices, setting important tasks aside for the autumn, and they are followed by ordinary traders who get a break. However, even the summer months can present surprises. Suffice it to recall the referendum on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU in June 2016, the results of which literally shocked all the stock and financial markets.
Such breaking news is not expected in the coming three months, but some events will be able to exert a strong, if not decisive, influence on the formation of exchange rates and trends.

- EUR/USD. Most likely, the ECB will send a signal in summer about its intention to end this year with a super-soft policy of buying up assets. This will happen, most likely, either after the meeting on June 14, or July 26, because the next meeting will happen in autumn. The intention to finish with the quantitative easing program (QE) and go into a new phase of development has been repeatedly stated by the heads of European Central Banks - by the head of the Bank of France Villeroia de Gallo, and the management of the German Bundesbank, and the head of the Bank of Lithuania Vitas Vasiliauskas.
As a result, despite the fact that the Euro can still continue to decline for some time, the markets are already prepared for a trend change. And if after one of the mentioned meetings the statements of the ECB Head Mario Draghi contain hawk notes, the Euro will immediately fly up.
More than 60% of the polled experts agree with this scenario at the moment, they believe that the pair EUR/USD will definitely return to the highs of 2018 in the zone 1.2400-1.2555 by September.
10% of analysts are still undecided, and about 30% of experts have voted for the further strengthening of the dollar. This, in their view, will be facilitated by the further raise of the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve against the backdrop of the ECB's muffled rhetoric. The bears' supporters expect the Fed to raise the rate by another 0.5% in the next six months, which will lead to a fall of the euro to the last September's low in the zone 1.1550. Moreover, such a decrease may occur in the near future, far outstripping the real actions of the Fed.
If we talk about technical analysis, its forecasts are more modest. It predicts a fairly low volatility and fluctuations of the pair in the corridor 1.1600-1.2000 for the beginning of the summer. Oscillators also expect correction upwards after 700 points of fall. So, a quarter of them are already signaling that this pair is oversold on the daily and weekly timeframes.

- GBP/USD. The pound continues to be pressured by uncertainty and disagreement with the European Union regarding the Brexit, as well as the absence of any changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Starting from April 17, the pound has already lost more than 900 points and, if you look at the readings of graphical analysis and indicators, it does not intend to stop there.
So, the graphical analysis on D1 assumes that, having beaten off from resistance 1.3455, the pair can sharply go down, reaching the bottom at the level of 1.3065. And in case of the breakdown of this support, it can fall another 300 points lower - to the horizon 1.2765.
However, only 35% of experts support this development, 10% are neutral and 55% are confident that, starting from the middle of summer, the pound will start to gain strength and the pair will rise at least to 1.4000-1.4100. In this case, we must take into account that as of now, only one out of ten oscillators indicates that the pair is oversold.

- USD/JPY. It is clear that almost all trend indicators and oscillators on D1 and W1 are painted green. Only 10% of oscillators say that this pair is overbought.
It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the pair has returned to the boundaries of the side channel 108.25-114.70, along which it has moved starting from the beginning of 2017. It broke through the lower boundary of this corridor in mid-February 2018, but now it has again approached its Pivot Point. Perhaps this is the reason for the divergence of opinions among experts: a third of them are for the movement of the pair to the north, a third vote for the east and a third think it will go to the south.
We can conclude from the above that the pair will stay in this range for the nearest months, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. At the beginning of summer, it expects the pair to move in the range of 108.25-112.00, after which the pair can go up to resistance 114.70.


- Cryptocurrencies. We should remind you once again that, due to the fact that the cryptocurrency market is thin and has increased volatility, digital currency rates can be strongly influenced not only by the decisions of various regulators, but also by the statements and actions of private companies and newsmakers of this industry.
For the pair BTC/USD, experts expect growth to the height of 11,750-12,980 by the middle of July, after which it is expected to roll back - first to the horizon of 10,000, and then, possibly, to the support of 7,160.
Analysts expect about the same dynamics for other cryptocurrencies included in the TOP-10 in terms of capitalization. So, it is not excluded that the pair ETH/USD will overcome the mark of $1000 for 1 coin in July, then it will return to the values of May in the $650 area.
LTC/USD. The pair will try to approach the height of $200 for a litecoin, then it will roll back to $140.
The immediate goal of the pair XRP/USD is to return to zone 0.8850. If it is reached, the next height is 1.0000, after which the rollback to the values in the region of 0.6300-0.7000 is expected.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a few words about the behavior of the major currency pairs and cryptocurrency pairs over the past week:

- EUR/USD. The behavior of this pair at the beginning of the week was determined by the fear of the players over possible political changes in Italy. As a result, the pair dropped to the values of a year ago, closely approaching the 1.1500 mark. However, the situation in the eurozone eventually entered a calmer channel, the Italian populists agreed on the composition of the government, and the dollar gradually began to lose its positions. Against this background, the euro managed to win back about 215 points from the "American", and even the positive data on the US labor market on Friday (NFP increased from 159K to 223K) could not fundamentally change the situation. As a result, the pair completed the five-day period almost in the same place, where it started, in the zone of 1.1660;

- The dynamics which are similar to the previous pair were demonstrated by the pair GBP/USD. First it fell to the level of November 2017, but the support in the 1.3200 zone was invincible for it, and the pair went up to the height of 1.3345. Then the bears started to counter attack, but after a short struggle, the victory was with the bulls. As a result, the pair managed to gain a foothold above a fairly strong level of the last two weeks - 1.3300, and completed the week at 1.3345;

- USD/JPY. At the beginning of the week, the yen continued its growth, but then began to lose positions. And this was despite the fact that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in May increased slightly. It is possible that the fall of the yen is due to the actions of the Central Bank of Japan, which reduced the purchases of government bonds for the first time since August 2017. The result of a week-long contest of bulls and bears is a draw, the end of the trading session was met by the pair at 109.52;

- Cryptocurrencies. If you compare the graphs of the bitcoin and major altcoins, they quite accurately repeat the movement of major currency pairs: a fall in the first half of the week and a return to the starting positions, in the second one. The capitalization of the crypto market as a whole has not practically changed either and is $330 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Both the oscillators and the trend indicators on H4 took a neutral position, while on D1, they still recommend selling the pair. As for analysts, they mainly focus is on the "trade wars" of the United States and news about the introduction of customs duties on the import of aluminum in relation to the EU countries, Mexico and Canada now. In this regard, most of them (55 😵 tend to the fact that the pair can climb to the zone 1.1800-1.1830. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 specifies that afterwards it is not ruled out to go down to support in the area of 1.1600.
In the longer term, the number of bull supporters among experts increases to almost 70%, and the targets are indicated at heights of 1.2000 and even 1.2200. As for the bears, in their opinion, the pair will not be able to overcome the resistance at 1.1800 and the seven-week long downtrend will continue;

- GBP/USD. Indicators for this pair are very similar to those for EUR/USD. Experts' opinions do not differ too much either, 60% of them expect that the pound will be able to rise to 1.3420, and, in case of its breakdown, reach the zone 1.3500. The next resistance is 100 points higher.
However, the problems of Great Britain connected with the withdrawal from the EU have not disappeared. And, in case of negative economic news, the pound will continue its decline, reaching a local bottom in the zone of 1.3085. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this scenario, pointing to another support at 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. We talked above about the reduction of bonds purchase by the Central Bank of Japan. The market is only assessing the situation so far, but the big players may well decide to move the yen further down. Moreover, some of the high-ranking Japanese officials already express clear concern about the possible escalation of trade wars into the Land of the Rising Sun as well.
In the meantime, the opinions of both analysts and indicators have been divided into three almost equal parts - one third are for the fall of the pair, one third are for its growth and another third support the sideways trend. Supports are at the levels of 108.95, 108.65 and 107.50. Resistances are 110.00, 110.45 and 111.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. The analysis of the market shows that not only the digital currencies themselves are subject to collapse, but also the participants of this market. For example, the OKCoin crypto-exchange, which occupied the first place two years ago, is now in the 188th place. In general, during this time, 8 out of 10 crypto market leaders have lost their positions.
The launch of the futures for cryptocurrencies, as well as pessimism of institutional investors has had a negative impact both on the current dynamics and on forecasts. As a result, most likely, we should not expect the same take-off of the exchange rate of virtual money, as we saw in June last year.
Now, almost all major crypto-pairs are repeating the movements of their leader - BTC/USD, which, while reducing volatility, continues to consolidate around the horizon 7,150.
If we follow the theory of graphical analysis, we now see the formation of a figure called Pennant. However, the direction of the further breakdown obviously depends not on the Forex theorists, but on the decisions and actions, primarily of the major regulators.
In the case of a rebound upward, one can expect the bitcoin to move to the height of 11,700. The start for this will be the return of the pair BTC/USD to the zone above 9,000. In case of negative developments , we will soon see the bitcoin in the 5,000-6,000 zone. In the upcoming week, most likely, the bitcoin will test the support in the zone 7,025-7,200.

As for the altcoins, as already mentioned above, the Ethereum (ETH/USD), the Litecoin (LTC/USD), and the Ripple (XRP/USD) will most likely follow the bitcoin in the near future without taking any independent action.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

In early June 2018, NordFX launched a new trading and investing service, which allows traders to enjoy another benefit of additionally acting as investors and/or managers of their RAMM account.

RAMM (Risk Allocation Management Model) is a brand new and unrivalled investment model based on modern risk management principles. It incorporates the best features of PAMM accounts and signal auto-copying services, whilst also possessing a number of distinct advantages and aspects.



This service allows traders to simultaneously do the following from just one RAMM account:
- invest in several trading strategies, automatically copying the trading signals of one or several RAMM-managers,
- create a personalized trading strategy, in which traders will act as RAMM-managers.

Thus, NordFX clients can, besides trading as usual on the MetaTrader 4 platform, secure two more sources of income, performing the following roles at the same time:
- being an investor,
- being a RAMM-manager.

Another important difference between RAMM and its counterparts is the security of the investor's funds: in RAMM, investors determine the level of capital protection themselves. Should the drawdown reach a specified level, trading on the account automatically ceases. Therefore, any concerns that all money may be lost due to the manager’s mistake are eliminated. Risk control is completely automated.

Any NordFX client can open a RAMM account. A minimum $50 deposit is needed to become a manager, and a minimum $10 deposit is needed to become an investor.
Trading with leverage of up to 1:1000 is possible for all trading instruments; these include 33 currency pairs, 6 cryptocurrency pairs, gold and silver.

You can get more detailed information about the RAMM service on our website.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #signals_forex #PAMM #RAMM #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair, supported by the majority of analysts, assumed its growth to the zone of 1.1800-1.1830. The pair went up indeed, fixing the week's high at 1.1839. So, taking into account the standard backlash, the forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. A rebound followed, and, as a result, the pair completed the trading session at the horizon 1.1770;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair was very similar to that for the EUR/USD. 60% of experts had expected that the pound could rise to the level of 1.3420, and, in case of its breakdown, reach the zone 1.3500. It actually happened so - on Thursday, June 08, having broken the resistance of 1.3420, the pair briefly managed to rise to the height of 1.3470, then the bulls' strength dried up, and the pair met the end of the week 70 points lower - in the zone 1.3400;

- USD/JPY. Recall that last week the opinions of both analysts and indicators were divided into three almost equal parts - one-third voted for the fall of the pair, one-third were for its growth and another third voted for the sideways trend. And, as is often the case in such situations, everyone was right: the pair first grew to 110.25, then fell back to support 109.20, then again grew up and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 109.55;

- Cryptocurrencies. As was said earlier, almost all major cryptopairs have been recently repeating the movements of their leader, BTC/USD. And the bitcoin, in turn, draws the Pennant and, constantly reducing volatility, continues to consolidate in the horizon area slightly above 7,000. So, if you look at the chart of D1, it is clearly visible that this "father" of all virtual currencies moved strictly horizontally in an extremely narrow corridor 7.345 - 7.730 for the whole week. It was followed in the sideways trend by all the major altcoins, and the attempt of the Ethereum and the Litecoin to break away from the leader and break through up at the beginning of the week, was unsuccessful, as expected. As a result, they returned to the initial levels: the Ethereum to around $600 per coin, and the Litecoin to $118.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. President Donald Trump's opponents must be very upset - to their great disappointment, his economic policy brings positive results: the number of jobs in the US in 2018 grew by more than a million, the inflation reached the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, the trade deficit is declining, and the gross domestic product is growing. All this leads to the dollar strengthening, which plays against American importers, and it also leads to the discontent among the financial elites of many countries whose currencies have now reached the historic lows.
As a result, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%), supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and 70% of oscillators, believe that the correction which started last week, will continue, but the pair's growth will be limited by the resistance in the zone of 1.2000. (In case of a breakdown when the pair fixes above, the next target is 100 points higher).
As for the supports, the main ones are located at the levels of 1.1650 and 1.1570;


- As for the pair GBP/USD, the correction to the level of 1.3615 is expected to continue by 65% of analysts. The next resistance is at the height of 1.3700, however, only 45% of experts vote for such growth. Graphical analysis on D1 also believes that the correction will be completed in the zone 1.3615, after which the pound sterling will continue its decline. The support levels are 1.3200, 1.3125 and 1.3040;

- But as for the Japanese yen, according to the readings of graphical analysis, on the contrary, it should strengthen its position. As a result, the pair USD/JPY may fall to the level of 108.00. However, only 40% of experts agreed with this scenario, 50% supported the growth of the pair, and another 10% are for the sideways trend. The oscillators do not have obvious signals either - on H4,most of them side with the bears, and on D1 the advantage is smoothly passed to the bulls. Resistances are at horizons 110.25 and 111.40;

- As for the main cryptocurrencies, their extremely low volatility does not allow us to speak of any stable trends emerging. And we are talking not only about the short-term forecast, but also about the forecast up to the end of this year. Thus, many analysts predict a gradual drying up of this market and a decrease in its capitalization. In this regard, the most likely target for the bitcoin for December 2018. is named as12,500 instead of previously announced 15,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Billionaire George Soros is confident that further strengthening of the dollar will lead to a new financial crisis. At the same time, 10 out of 60 analysts interviewed by Reuters believe that the growth of the US currency will be completed within a month, 35 are confident that the strengthening of the dollar will last at least until the fall, and another 15 give the USD growth until the end of the year. Experts from ABN Amro are among the latter, they believe that the euro should fall to the level of 1.1000, and only then, in 2019, it will be able to restore some of the lost ground.
Interestingly, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate to 2%, which was announced last week, did not surprise anyone. The information that this year should expect two more similar increases, and three in the future did not cause a stir either. The euro quickly recovered and, moreover, demonstrated growth against the background of these events to the level of 1.1850.
But the ECB's decision to extend the quantitative easing (QE) regime instantly dropped the euro against the dollar by more than 300 points. Our experts had named the level 1.1570 as the main support zone, to which the EUR/USD did rush. Due to the unusually powerful bearish impulse, by inertia, it even dropped 30 points lower, however, after coming to its senses, it soon turned around and completed the trading session at 1.1610;

- 65% of analysts expected further correction of the GBP/USD to the level of 1.3615, after which it had to resume its movement to the south. However, the pair could not rise even above the level of 1.3445 and rushed down again, trying, as on May 29, to break through support in the zone of 1.3200. And, just like in May, the attempt failed, after which the pair returned to zone 1.3280;

- USD/JPY. 50% of analysts supported the growth of this pair, referring to the horizons as 110.25 and 111.40 as resistance, between which, at 110.60, it completed the five-day period;

- Cryptocurrencies. In recent days, following their leader bitcoin, almost all of them have broken through important support levels and moved further south, testing new horizons. Thus, BTC managed to break through supports of $7,125 and $7,000 and reached a weekly low of $6,110 on June 14, then it managed to win back about 7% and rise to $6,575. Similar dynamics were demonstrated by the remaining virtual currencies included in the TOP-10 market capitalization.
Since the beginning of the year, the crypto market capitalization has decreased by 44.3% (from $611 billion to $340 billion). Just over the night of 10 to 11 June, the market shrank by another $25 billion. Many traders and analysts tried to explain this collapse by the Coinrail exchange in South Korea being hacked, but in reality, it lost only $40 million, so the theft was most likely just an excuse for another lowering the price of crypto-coins.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- In addition to the extension of the QE program mentioned above, the ECB's decision to leave the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0%, and the deposit rate at -0.4%, also exerts strong pressure on the euro. It was also stated that these rates will not be raised "at least until the summer of 2019". At the same time, Mario Draghi admitted that the economy of the Eurozone in 2018 will not return to the forecasted level of growth.
All this, coupled with the success of President Donald Trump's economic policy, creates significant prerequisites for the further strengthening of the dollar. That's why 65% of experts expect that in the coming week the EUR/USD will test the level of 1.1500 and, if successful, could drop another 100 points lower. 90% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 also agree with this development,
As for the remaining 35% of experts, in their opinion, the pair still has chances to return to zone 1.1825, but the likelihood of such a development will depend on what the ECB Head Mario Draghi and the Fed, J. Powell, will say in their statements earlier this week;

- it is clearly visible on the GBP / USD chart that the pair moves in the lateral channel 1.3200-1.3470.for the fourth week in a row. At the same time, 60% of analysts believe that, following the euro, the British pound will also continue its decline. In their view, the pair GBP/USD may as well break through the lower boundary of this channel and move to the level of 1.3050-1.3200. This scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and the absolute majority of indicators.
An alternative point of view, represented by 40% of experts, suggests the movement of the pair in the side corridor 1.3200-1.3345. The next resistance is in the zone is 1.3400.
On Thursday, June 21, the next meeting of the Bank of England should take place. However, with a high probability, it will not present any surprises, so it is not worth it to expect serious exchange rate jumps at this moment;


- a day earlier than their British counterparts, the Committee on Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting. As for the experts, two-thirds of them cautiously support the small growth of the pair USD JPY to the area of 111.00-111.50. The next resistance is 112.00.
This time, a third of analysts, graphic analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 20% of oscillators, side with the bears, signalling the pair is overbought. In case their scenario turns out to be correct, the pair is expected to decline first to support 109.40, and then, possibly, further - to levels 109.00 and 108.50;

- Most of the forecasts for basic cryptocurrencies can be reduced to just two sentences: 1) in the near future they will continue to fall, and 2) they should grow in the long term. For example, according to the forecast of Fundstrat Global Advisors analysts, the bitcoin can fall to the level of $ 3,250. However, even this, in their opinion, "will not break the long-term ascending trend of the first cryptocurrency".
The closest target for BTCUSD, according to the founder of Onchain Capital Ran Neuner, is the level of $5,900. The optimistic part of his forecast is that "if the price of the bitcoin reaches 20, 40 or 80 thousand dollars within a few years, then no one will be worried about whether it was bought for $6,000 or $6,500. Only traders working on a scale of less than a year should be concerned about the current drop in the market price. "The only thing that the expert didn't specify is when this long-awaited take-off to 80,000 takes place.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Most experts (65%) expected the pair to make an attempt to break through the 1.1500 support, which actually happened. However, the attempt failed, the bears' strengths weakened and, against the background of a temporary lull in the trade war between the US and China, the dollar lost about 160 points to the euro, pushing the pair to the PivotPoint zone of the last six months and finishing the five-day period at 1.1657;

- 60% of analysts spoke in favor of the fact that the GBP/USD could break through the lower boundary of the four-week channel 1.3200-1.3470 and fall to the horizon 1.3050. This forecast was correct: on Tuesday, June 19, the pair was below the support of 1.3200, and on Thursday, June 21, it reached the level of 1.3100. However, then the Bank of England presented a small unexpected surprise. Instead of the projected 2 votes against 7, the interest rate increase received 3 votes. Of course, this did not bring any basic changes, but the bulls understood such a result as a hint of a possible rate hike in August and began to push the pound up. As a result, by the end of the week session, the pair was able to rise to 1.3260;

- USD/JPY. The results of the previous week showed once again that signals of even a small part of oscillators should be taken into account. So, this time 20% of the oscillators signaled the pair was overbought. They were supported by a third of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, indicating the main support in the zone 109.40. Taking a standard backlash into account, this forecast turned out to be absolutely accurate: the pair reached the local bottom at 109.54 on Tuesday, after which it rebounded up to a height of 110.75, and then returned to the main medium-term support/resistance line in the 110.00 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. Back in early June, the total capitalization of this market was $330 billion, now it is $283 billion, that is, in just a few weeks the market was "blown away" by about 15% (more than 50% since the beginning of the year).
If you look at the BTCUSD chart, you can observe the same picture for the seventh week: strained bulls' attempts to raise the pair up, and then a weekly sharp collapse, which negates all their efforts. As a result, having fallen to the level of $5,925, the bitcoin has reached the minimum of February 6, 2018.
It really does not make sense to talk about the reasons for such falls now - whether this is a negative decision of yet another regulator, or hacking of yet another exchange. All these are just reasons to "sink" the rate of the main crypto currency by another few hundred dollars. Altcoins included in the TOP-10 in terms of capitalization - etherium, ripple, litecoin and others, - obediently follow the bitcoin down, adversely affecting the mood of the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- as for the economic data, which can continue pushing the EUR/USD upwards, we can note only a slightly noticeable growth of the Eurozone composite PMI index. Apparently, this is the reason why 55% of experts give only a very cautious forecast, indicating the zone 1.1725-1.1750 as a target. The vast majority of indicators on H4 are also painted green, but it is already 15% of the oscillators that indicate that the pair is overbought.
The remaining 45% of analysts are sure that the growth of the euro is a temporary phenomenon, and the pair will once again test the level of 1.1500, and in case of its breakdown it will drop 100 points lower.
But the graphical analysis on D1 offers a compromise option: first the pair's fall into the zone 1.1450-1.1500, and then its growth to the height of 1.1840;

- the main trend for the GBP/USD so far is formed by the chief economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane, who gave his vote on Thursday for raising the interest rate. In addition, the regulator has given a positive assessment to the British economy as a whole and indicated a readiness to reduce the balance after the rate rises to 1.5% (against 0.5% of today). Such "hawkish" statements led to the fact that 65% of experts expect the continuation of the uptrend and the pair's transition to the zone 1.3350-1.3450.
The remaining 35% of analysts seem to belong to the conspiracy theorists and believe that all statements of the regulator are only attempts to support the rate of the pound, which has lost more than 1,000 points since April. Proceeding from this, these experts believe that the fall of the pair will continue and it will reach the level of 1.3100 in the near future. The next support is 100 points lower.

- As for the pair USD/JPY, the opinions of analysts were divided equally - half are for the growth of the pair, half are for its fall, and both indicate a decrease in volatility. The support levels are 109.85 and 109.50, the resistance is 110.25 and 110.60. The graphical analysis on H4 agrees with the experts, indicating a gradual consolidation in the 110.10 zone.
It should be noted that about 15% of the oscillators indicate the pair is oversold, suggesting the correction of the pair up in the near future.

- Cryptocurrencies. It seems that the critical time is approaching, when market makers will have to decide whether the bitcoin should continue falling, or the trend should turn upwards.
If the BTC/USD confidently passes the support in the $5,900-6,100 zone, it is highly likely that after some time it will be seen near the horizon $4,300, where it stayed for a long time in last August-September.
If this support proves invincible, the bulls will do their best to bring the bitcoin back to the May highs and maybe even reach the coveted mark of 10,000.

The struggle in the main virtual currencies market is expected to be serious in the near future, and in conditions of such uncertainty, it is possible that crypto traders should not wait for any obvious powerful trend to appear, but it makes sense to focus on intraday trading .And this concerns not only the bitcoin, but also all the basic altcoins.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be almost 100% correct. Recall that we spoke of a slight increase to 1.1725-1.1750 (and the pair actually climbed to 1.1720), as well as its possible drop and another attempt to test the level of 1.1500 (on Thursday the pair dropped to the horizon 1.1525). In the end, while maintaining the balance between bulls and bears, it returned to the Pivot Point zone for the last one and a half months and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1680;

- GBP/USD. Thanks to the votes from the Bank of England, a positive mood prevailed in the analysts' camp last week - 65% of them expected a pair to rise above 1.3350. However, those 35% of experts who believed that all hawkish statements of the regulator were nothing more than an attempt to support the rate of the British pound, which had lost more than 1,000 points since April, turned out to be right. According to their forecasts, the pair was to fall into the zone of 1.3000-1.3100. That's exactly what happened: the local bottom was found exactly in the middle of the zone, after which the GBP/USD returned to 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. Once again, the oscillators turned out to be right - 15% of them pointed it was oversold, and that was enough for the pair to go up. At the same time, it stayed within the rather narrow monthly lateral channel 109.20-110.90, which confirmed the consolidation of the pair in the 110.10 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for BTC/USD said that if the pair confidently passes support in the $5,900-6,100 zone, with a high probability, after a while it will be seen near the horizon $4,300. And it was on June 28, that the bears decidedly went for a breakthrough. It seemed that the collapse was imminent, but when it reached $5,790, the pair first froze, and then jerked up on June 30, reaching a height of $6,525. As a result, over a day, bitcoin has grown by more than 10%, the reason for which was the mysterious large-scale purchase of BTC by an unknown investor, which occurred after the CME futures closed.
Many altcoins went into the growth. following bitcoin. The highest growth was demonstrated by Bitcoin Cash + 13% and Litecoin + 11%. The average growth of the top twenty cryptos was 7-10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- Last week, the short-term growth of the EUR/USD was caused by the results of the EU summit and the agreement on migration issues reached. However, in the near future it is hardly possible to have a release of new economic data, which would push the pair EUR/USD further up. The publication of the data on the labor market in the United States (NFP) on Friday July 07 is of particular interest, but the information on the possible tightening of the Fed's monetary policy may be on the other side of the scale. As a result, according to 35% of experts, the pair will be able to stay in the side corridor 1.1500-1.1725.
At the same time, it is possible that it will still be able to break the upper boundary of this channel and rise to zone 1.1725-1.1825. This version is supported by 20% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4
The remaining 45% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators signaling that the pair is overbought, believe that it will once again test the level of 1.1500, and in case of its breakdown it will drop by 100-150 points lower;

- A similar picture is drawn by graphical analysis for the GBP/USD as well: on H4, a rise to the level of 1.3300-1.3335, and a fall into the zone 1.2900-1.3100 on D1. 15% of the oscillators also agree with the latter scenario.
As for the experts' opinion, they are divided almost equally: 35% support the growth of the pair, 35% are for its fall and 30% favor the sideways trend.
We can assume from all of the above, that the pair will continue to move east along the horizon 1.3200, fluctuating in the range 1.3050-1.3325.
If we talk about a medium-term forecast, 65% of analysts have supported the growth of the pair to 1.3450-1.3615 zone, and only 35% have voted for its fall below the level of 1.3000. In the event that the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, directly or indirectly confirms the "hawkish" statements of his colleague Andy Haldane in his speech on Thursday, July 05, the pair's jump may be expected as early as this week;

- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that it is already 10% of oscillators on H4 and D1 that give signals that the pair is overbought, most experts (55%) still expect the pair to grow at least to the 111.45 horizon. And it is only after that, in their opinion, it can return to the support of 110.00. This development is supported by graphical analysis on D1, it warns that, if this level is broken through, the pair can very quickly drop another 100 points lower;


- Cryptocurrencies. Seeing the latest jerk up of the bitcoin, the crypto world wondered: what was this? The long-awaited turn of the trend and the fulfillment of John McAfee's prophecy that bitcoin will cost $1 million per coin by 2020? Or just another trap? And, maybe, the IMF's Kenneth Rogoff was right, when he said that by the end of the year the rate of this forefather of virtual currencies will fall to some miserable $100?
Perhaps the answer to this question remains to be seen soon. For now, as the ancient Greek sage Skelef said, everyone sees what he wants. Analysts who are optimists say that if bitcoin confidently overcomes the level of $ 6,700, it will be a strong enough positive signal for the trend to change. As for the pessimists, we see the last breath of a dying coin. And if the pair BTC/USD is fixed below the horizon of $5,900, it is highly likely that after a while it will be possible to be seen about $4,300, and then even lower.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecasts of the majority of experts (55%) included the level of 1.1725, which the pair must have achieved this week. And this was what happened. Positive economic data from Germany as well as not the rosiest statistics from the labor market in the US (NFP declined by 12.7%), and the once again inflaming trade war between the US and China side with the Euro. As a result, the pair gradually, step by step, reached the height of 1.1765. Then a small correction followed, and it completed the trading session at the level of 1.1745;

- GBP/USD. Summarizing rather contradictory opinions of analysts and indicators, we assumed that the pair would continue to move to the east along the horizon 1.3200, making fluctuations in the range of 1.3050-1.3325. And, judging by the graph, this forecast turned out to be correct. Starting from 1.3200 mark on Monday night, the pair first fell to the level of 1.3093, then turned and went up, rising to the height of 1.3285.
The pound was once again supported by "hawkish" statements coming from the Bank of England, and the prospect of the interest rate raising. The growth of activity in the service sector of Great Britain also added optimism for the players;

- USD/JPY. The scale that determines the quotes of this pair, on the one hand has the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, and on the other - the trade wars raging on the continents, as a result of which more and more investors choose the currency of this island state as a refuge.
Proceeding from this, most experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expected the continuation of fluctuations in quotations and the struggle between bulls and bears. According to their forecast, the pair had first to rise to the horizon of 111.45 (it grew to 111.15), and then go down to support 110.00 (in fact it reached the level of 110.27). Then another cycle of fluctuations followed, and the pair completed the five-day period at 110.46, confirming its strive for consolidation in zone 110.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. After the jump on June 30, the pair BTC/USD continued to grow and managed to even reach $6,780, after which it rolled back down. Recall that the optimistic forecast for the past week said that if bitcoin confidently overcame the level of $6,700, it would be a strong enough signal to the long-awaited trend change. However, despite a significant growth, there has been no real breakthrough of this resistance, and the level of $6,600 can be considered as the Pivot Point of the last days.
Following the bitcoin, the Ethereum (ETH/USD) showed a certain growth, although the level of $485 can be considered the upper limit of a two-month down channel. And, in case of a rebound from it, the pair can fall to the price of 360 dollars per coin.
As for the Litecoin (LTC/USD) and the Ripple (XRP/USD), they moved into a sideways trend, ending the week in the same place where it started.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the growth of the EUR/USD may continue, but it will be a small one. The level 1.1800 is named as the main resistance. The next resistance is 50 points higher. Next, during July, the pair again expects a decline to the support of 1.1500 and another attempt to break through it.15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this development of events, giving signals that the pair is overbought.
No "revolutionary" news is expected next week. However, we should pay attention to Thursday July 12. On this day data on the growth rates of industrial production in the Eurozone will be published, as well as statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. According to analysts, the rate of inflation in the US over the past month has accelerated, which could push the Fed to another interest rate hike and, as a result, render additional support to the dollar;


- For the pair GBP/USD the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 draws a rebound from support 1.3225, growth to the 1.3400 zone and the subsequent sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000. As for the experts, in the current situation they are waiting for news from the UK.
Thus, on Tuesday July 10 data on the growth rates of industrial production for May will be published, and if it turns out that the April recession is completely overcome, the pound may rise above the 1.3300 mark.
Another speech by the head of the Bank of England may provide support for the British currency on Wednesday July 11, if Mark Carney again talks about the forthcoming tightening of the monetary policy.
The government of Great Britain can play against the pound. In the near future, it must submit its draft agreement on Brexit to the EU, and if it does not contain any important aspects for the economy of the country, the pound may again be under serious pressure;

- USD/JPY. The trade war between the US and China is again in full swing. On July 6, the duties on imported Chinese goods mounting to 25% entered into force. Washington is expected to increase sanctions by another $200 billion, to which China threatens to respond by selling off US treasury securities.
Against this background, as already mentioned, there is a growing demand for the yen, as a safe shelter currency. The pair USD/JPY rose by about 6.7% over the past four months. As for the upcoming week, most analysts (60%) expect the continuation of its growth to the level of 111.40. The remaining 40% believe that the pair has moved to a lateral movement and will be held in channel 109.35-110.80. The next support is at the level of 108.65;

- Cryptocurrencies. The major question for the near future is whether the bitcoin continues its growth or rolls back. At present, it is clearly aiming at overcoming the $7,000 mark, and buyers are not leaving the market yet. However, even now indicators show that this cryptocurrency is overbought, and, in case of any negative news, the trend can very quickly turn from bullish to bearish, returning the pair to the June lows.
On the other hand, a number of experts predict the continuation of the growth of the BTC/USD, naming as one of the numerous reasons the comeback of many investors disappointed in altcoins to this cryptocurrency, the long absence of bad news, and, paradoxically, the low volume of trading. The latter means that the desperate have already left the ship, and those who wish to sell these coins are extremely few. There remain only those who, no matter what, are ready to keep the bitcoin either till the full victory or the complete collapse. That is why the optimists keep saying that by the end of the year BTC will cost at least $50,000 (Arthur Hayes, BitMEX), or at least $25,000 (Tom Lee, FundStrat).


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be absolutely correct. Recall that it assumed first a small growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1800 (in reality, it rose to the height of 1.1790), and then a fall (it fell to the level of 1.1620). After that, a rebound followed, and the pair completed the trading session in a strong support/resistance zone 1.1685;

- GBP/USD. Despite the fact that the volatility was somewhat less than expected, the main trends for this pair were fairly accurately pointed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to its scenario, the pair was expected to grow to the 1.3400 zone (it rose to 1.3360), and then a sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000 was expected (it fell to the level of 1.3100).
As expected, another blow to the pound was caused by the government of Great Britain. Last week, key Brexit ministers resigned - Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Secretary for Brexit David Davis, which put an extra pressure on the pound;

- USD/JPY. Despite the trade war between the US and China and the growing demand for the yen as a safe haven, the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan still plays against the currency of this island nation. The main blow to the yen was caused by the rapid growth of Asian stocks and, accordingly, the indices Nikkei and MSCI Asia Pacific. As a result, it fell against all G-10 currencies and lost more than 240 points against the US dollar.
At the end of the five-day period, the traditional correction followed, and the pair froze at 112.35;

- Cryptocurrencies. We warned that in the event of any negative news, the ascending trend of bitcoin could very quickly turn from bullish into bearish, leading the pair to June lows. It was said multiple times that in fact all this news is only a virtual excuse, using which large speculators start moving virtual currencies up or down. How, for example, could the theft from the Swiss platform Bancor "some" $23.5 million ($13.5 million according to other sources) affect the sinking of the whole market? No way it could, but as a result, bitcoin collapsed by almost 11%, dragging along all the main altcoins as well.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Oscillators on both H4 and D1 are in complete disarray as to the future of this pair - about a third of them are green, one third are red and one third are neutral gray. As for analysts, 80% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue its movement to the horizon 1.1500. Nearest supports are at the levels of 1.1625, 1.1590 and 1.1550.
The upcoming meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia on Monday, July 16 may strengthen the dollar. Experts do not expect any significant breakthrough from this meeting, but if both leaders express certain optimism on its results, this can play into the hands of the American currency.
An alternative point of view is represented by only 20% of analysts. In their opinion, the pair can once again test the level of 1.1790 and, if successful, rise to resistance 1.1830;

- GBP / USD. The resignation of the two main Brexit negotiators means that British Prime Minister Teresa May chose a soft option for her country to leave the EU. And if she keeps her post, this can strengthen the position of the pound in the future. However, right now the market is negative and most analysts (70%) predict the continuation of the fall of the pair GBP/USD first to the level of 1.3100, and then another 50 points lower.
10% of oscillators agree with this forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought, as well as graphical analysis on D1. At the same time, the latter points out that the pair can move in the side corridor in the range 1.3 190-1.3285 for a while;

- Also, 70% of experts expect strengthening of the dollar to the Japanese yen as well. In their opinion, the pair USD/JPY will seek to reach the highs of last December in the zone of 113.50. The next goal for it is the last November high. - 114.75.
The graphical analysis on H4 also agrees with this development of events. But on D1, it draws an opposite picture - the fall into the zone 110.25-111.15, and then even lower - to support 109.35.
It should be noted that even now a number of analysts are calling for being very cautious with the dollar, as this currency, according to their forecasts, has already approached the overbought state;

- Cryptocurrencies. We listed the factors that could positively affect the growth of the pair BTC / USD, in the previous forecast. Now, a couple of words about the negative side.
In fact, it was quite simple to predict the drop of bitcoin last week - it is enough to connect the points A, B, C and D on the chart to see the attenuation of the rising trend. Now the capitalization of the market is again near the 2018 lows and is about $240 billion. If such drying continues, according to some experts, the process can acquire the character of a collapse. As a result, the bitcoin will be around $3000, and the total market capitalization will not exceed half of the current market capitalization.
Meanwhile, the pair BTC/USD is trading roughly midway between the June lows ($5,790) and the July highs ($6,830) and, if nothing extraordinary happens, it will likely stay in this corridor for a few more weeks.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that in the opinion of 80% of experts who were supported by graphical analysis on D 1, the pair was supposed to continue its descent to the horizon 1.1500. An alternative point of view was presented by only 20% of analysts who expected that it could once again test the level of 1.1790. However, adjustments to all these forecasts have been traditionally made by the summer and vacation season. As a result, the pair, as if tired of lying on the beach, could only lazily rise to the level of 1.1745, and then descend to the level of 1.1574. As for the end of the week, after Donald Trump criticized the Fed policy and the strong dollar, the euro won back the losses, and the pair returned to the upper half of the summer side channel, having stopped at 1.1720;

- The negative mood of the market in relation to the pair GBP/USD was supported by the majority of analysts (70%), who expected the continuation of its fall first to the level of 1.3100, and then another 50 points lower. This forecast turned out to be quite accurate: the pair reached the horizon of 1.3100 by the middle of the week, then it groped for the bottom in the support zone for the two-month downtrend channel - 1.2955, fought back and completed the five-day period near its central line at 1.3131;

- USD/JPY. Here, too, most experts (70%) expected the dollar to strengthen and the pair to seek to reach the last year's highs in zone 113.50. In the first half of the week, it was really soaring 80 points. However, the correction in the US stock market caused a decline in its quotes, the pair turned around and fell to the level of 111.40by the end of the week session;

- Cryptocurrencies. Two weeks ago, we listed some of the reasons that could lead to the bitcoin growth, and then assumed that the BTC/USD would hold in the range of $ 5,790-6830 for some time. But only if nothing extraordinary happens.
As it always happens with crypto-currencies, it happened - the major financial players announced their desire to enter this market. One of them was the investment giant BlackRock, the asset manager of 6.3 trillion dollars. Another locomotive was the company MasterCard, which registered a patent in the field of operations with bitcoin. All this strongly inspired the market, as a result of which the rate of this digital currency increased by about $1350 (21%), reaching $7.585.
Following the bitcoin, the main altcoins also moved up, but their growth, unlike the leader's, was short-lived, and by the end of the week the bears managed to restore their positions, if not completely, at least partially. For example, the pair XRP/USD, starting at $0.43, quickly rose to $0.52, but then as quickly fell to $0.45 per coin.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The ECB's interest rate decision and the press conference of its head Mario Draghi are expected on Thursday July 26. But neither of these are expected to cause any special surprise to the market. More serious concern for the euro is caused by the visit of the European Commission officials to Washington, where they should discuss sanctions and counter-sanctions in the trade war between the EU and the United States with President Trump. The aggravation of the situation may again upset the pair, which is why 60% of analysts are waiting for its return to the level of 1.1575, and in case of its breakdown - to the June-July low at 1.1500.
15% of oscillators that signal the pair is overbought and the graphical analysis agree. With this scenario. However, on H4, graphical analysis indicates that before it falls, the pair can still rise to resistance 1.1790.The next resistance level is 1.1850;


- Macroeconomic data from the British Isles, as well as the situation with Brexit, do not inspire optimism, which also affects the analysts' forecasts. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, are waiting for the continuation of the downtrend for the pair GBP/USD. Oscillators on D1 are also Painted in red, indicating it is overbought. Support levels are 1.2955 and 1.2830.
The remaining 35% of experts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, expect a growth of the pair, although small. The pound can also be supported by the UK GDP data, which will be released on Friday 27 July. It is expected that the GDP will grow by 2% compared to the previous quarter. Target levels for the pair are1.3190, 1.3245 and 1.3270;

- USD/JPY. Here a slight advantage is on the side of the bulls, if we talk of experts - they are 50%.45% side with the bears and 5% abstained. {0Graphical analysis on H4 and 80% of oscillators on D1 are for the growth of the pair as well. The nearest targets are 112.20 and 112.65, then 113.15 and 114.00.
An alternative point of view, apart from 45% of experts, is supported by graphical analysis on D 1 and most oscillators on H4. The support levels are 110.75, 110.30 and 109.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. If last week the crypto market capitalization was close to the 2018 lows and amounted to about $240 billion, by Wednesday July 18 it was close to $300 billion. But more importantly, the share of buyers at that moment increased to 27%. The last time this happened was on April 8 this year.
However, the increase in volumes occurred too sharply - the first jump lasted only 20 minutes. And even though the bears suffered very significant losses - many short positions closed on stop-losses with significant losses, there is still no confidence in the change in the main trend for an increasing one for the BTC/USD.
By the end of Friday July 20, the pair continues to hold within a strong support/resistance zone of 7,270-7,730, which can be called Pivot Point of spring-summer 2018. It is possible that, despite being overbought, it will still attempt to break through its upper limit. Although, experts believe its decline to support 6,830 to be more likely.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The past seven days, like the previous one and a half months, did not bring any significant events, and the market is in a lazy-holiday mood because of that. The pair's volatility is 130 points, and the maximum deviation from the Pivot Point of the medium-range lateral channel (1.1660) is even less - only 90 points, after which the pair returns to the central zone. So it happened this time as well - at the end of the trading session, it froze at 1.1658;

- the GBP/USD pair also behaved weakly, gradually consolidating near the horizon of 1.3100. The range of British currency fluctuations was not much higher than that of the euro and amounted to only about 145 points. The pair finished the week at the level of 1.3102;

- USD/JPY. This pair was painstakingly drawing the head-and-shoulders figure for the whole month of July, although to some, it might be more like a cowboy hat. Last week was devoted to the right field of this hat, which means a sideways trend within the boundaries of 110.58-111.53. As for the end of the week, the pair met it in the middle of the channel at around 111.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. One of the development variants last week provided for a bitcoin attempt to break through the level of $8,000. And despite being overbought, it did it. The main growth driver was the expectation that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would still allow the Winklevoss brothers to launch Bitcoin ETF. The main trading volumes were traded at Japanese and South Korean crypto-exchanges.
But as soon as the BTC/USD approached the mark of $ 8,500, it became known that the SEC rejected the application of the brothers once again. As a result, bitcoin collapsed below the $8,000 horizon once again, losing about $630. However, the fall did not last long, and the pair once again broke through the eight-thousand level on Friday evening and reached the height of $8,275.
As for the main altcoins: etherium, ripple, litecoin, etc., they showed an average growth of 6-7%, following the bitcoin.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The next week will be filled with events, which at another time could initiate quite strong movements in the market. However, at the present moment, surprises should not be expected either from the data on the GDP of the Eurozone, or from the values of the consumer price index, which will be announced on Tuesday July 31.
If we look at other developments concerning the euro/dollar pair, one can note the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate and the Fed's subsequent comment on Wednesday, August 1, as well as the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday, August 3. But here, most likely, there will be only a small short-term increase in volatility.
As for the oscillators, their indications on D 1 were divided into almost equal parts - one third are for the growth of the pair, one third are for its fall and one third are for the sideways trend. But as for the experts, the overwhelming majority of them (70%) still tends to see the pair reduce to the lower boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1505-1.1850. However, it is possible that the pair will stay within the two-week zone 1.1575-1.1750 for some time, and only then it will go down. It is this scenario that is drawn by the graphical analysis on D1.
This time only 30% of analysts voted for the growth of the pair to the upper border of the channel 1.1850;

- The future of the British pound is not encouraging, even despite the possible increase by the Bank of England interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which will be known on Thursday August 2. 65% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will continue its decline - first to the level of 1.3000-1.3070, and then to support 1.2955. The ultimate goal is the 2017 summer lows in the zone 1.2800.
An alternative point of view is represented by 35% of analysts who believe that the pair has reached the local bottom and will now return to the marks around 1.3200-1.3300. In their opinion, its rise during August to a height of 1.3450 is possible. 15% of oscillators side with the bulls as well, giving signals the pair is oversold;

- USD/JPY. Here, the experts who support the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, at least, to the zone of 111.75-112.20. are preponderant (60%) The graphical analysis on H4 fully agrees with this.
The remaining 40% place their hopes to Tuesday, July 31. On this day, the Bank of Japan is likely to leave Interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, but the comments of the leadership of this regulator have a chance to support the yen. But this will happen only if there are at least hints of a change in monetary policy and an increase in the interest rate to positive values. In this case, the support is at levels 110.60, 110.30 and 109.75;


- Cryptocurrencies. Traders, investors and miners have been looking forward to the bitcoin graph for the past few weeks. Since June 28, the rate of this currency has grown by 42%, and the total capitalization of the cryptomarket has exceeded 300 billion dollars. After the bitcoin reached the height of $8,500, there were quite a lot of chances that a $10,000 mark would be conquered. Moreover, many factors contribute to this. We list only a few of them:
- the first is the growth of political risks and, as a consequence, a decrease in the demand for "classical" assets and a decline in trading volumes in traditional markets. It is also possible to add instability in a number of countries, thanks to which crypto-currencies become a tool for saving the capital;
- the second factor is the emergence of new technological solutions for attracting large institutional investors at a number of crypto-exchanges;
- the third is more active recognition of cryptocurrencies at the state level, for example, in South Korea or in Venezuela. According to the statement of the president of this country, the Venezuelan currency bolivar will soon be tied to the national cryptocurrency Petro;
- the fourth one is the launch of a platform for the creation of crypto-exchanges;
- the fifth is statements of high state officials and other VIP-persons, like former Assistant to US President Steve Bannon, about their investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Experts believe that in case of growth of the pair BTC/USD above $10,000, there will be even more of those wishing to invest in bitcoin. As a result, there are more and more forecasts saying that the year-old rally may repeat, and bitcoin can rise well above $ 20,000 by the end of the year.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The past week was filled with events, which at another time could initiate quite strong movements in the market. But not now, not at the height of the holiday season. We did not expect any surprises either from the data on the Eurozone GDP or from the values of the consumer price index. There was a little hope for the US Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate and on the publication of data on the US labor market, but there were no special volatility outbursts there either. Even the drop in the NFP by 36.7% (from 248K to 157K) did not impress the market.
As a result, the situation was as had been expected by many experts: taking into account the standard backlash, the pair stayed within the two-week zone 1.1575-1.1750, reaching a maximum of 1.1745, then groping for the local bottom at 1.1560 and finally ending the five-day session at the mark 1.1567;

- GBP/USD. The future of the British pound was not encouraging, even despite the Bank of England's possible increase in the interest rate - 65% of experts considered that the GBP/USD would continue its decline to the zone of 1.3000.
This prediction turned out to be absolutely correct. On the eve of raising the rate, the pound grew slightly. Then, as expected, on Thursday, August 2, the regulator lifted it from 0.50% to 0.75%. But then the accompanying commentary made it clear that one should not expect another increase in the foreseeable future - they say, the economy is not all right, and there are problems with the Brexit. As a result, the pair turned around and quickly fell to the horizon 1.2975. And it met the end of the week's session exactly where the experts expected, at 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. The report on the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, collapsed the yen, instead of strengthening it. The main theses from its head Haruhiko Kuroda speech were interpreted by the market as the intention to preserve ultra-soft policy and to stimulate the weakening of the Japanese currency by increasing the yield of 10-year government bonds.
As a result, the USD/JPY quotes jumped to 112.15. However, the pair did not manage to consolidate at this height and, having gone down about 90 points, it finished the week at the level of 111.25;

- Cryptocurrencies. This market was controlled by the bears for the whole week. The fact that bitcoin and major altcoins were recently overbought sided with the bears. The absence of positive news from regulators and market makers did not help the growth either.
As a result, the BTCUSD fell by $1,000, losing about 12% during the week, and reached the mid-July value around $7,280 per coin.
The Ethereum lost even more, about 14%, breaking at some point the support at $400. Litecoin lost 11%, but the ripple was more stable: having fallen by 7%, it then turned and gained back 2.5%;



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. No significant events that could seriously affect the mood of the market are expected next week. Many indicators indicate a virtually total lack of activity. MACD on D 1 almost horizontally moves slightly below the zero mark for the fourth week running. Approximately 85% of all oscillators are painted red, but the remaining 15% are already signaling the pair is oversold.
As for the experts, 70%, supported by graphical analysis, still believe that the pair still should reach the lower boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1505-1.1850, and only then go up. The remaining 30% have voted for the move in the narrower three-week corridor 1.1575-1.1750;

- the scenario for the future of the British pound is also negative. Most analysts (70%) are waiting for the pair GBP/USD to fall to the low of the summer of 2017 in the zone of 1.2800. This development is supported by all oscillators (except one) and graphical analysis on H4 and D1. The nearest support is 1.2955, the next one is 100 points lower.
An alternative point of view is represented by 30% of experts who believe that the pair has moved to a lateral movement in channel 1.2955-1.3210. The nearest resistance is in the area of 1.3100;

- USD/JPY. here most of the experts (75%) support the strengthening of the dollar .Despite the fall of the pair at the end of last week, it stayed within the medium-term rising channel, which began at the end of this March, and is now at the line of its support .The immediate goal for the pair will be the height of 112,000, the ultimate goal - 113.15.
If the the supporters of the bears win, the pair is expected to march to the south. In this case, the support is at levels 110.60, 110.30 and 109.75. It should be noted that, when moving from a weekly forecast to a forecast until the end of the summer, the number of supporters of such a scenario is growing among analysts from 25% to 45%.
The compromise version is offered by graphical analysis: first a decline to the level of 110.60, and then rise to the level of 112.00;


- Cryptocurrencies. Supporters of the Elliot wave theory can see the end of the 5th rising wave of the BTC/USD in the July 25 maximum. Thus, the subsequent fall is an impulse wave A, after which the market expects a corrective wave B and a rise to the zone of 7,800-8,000. The most optimistic goal for the first half of August is to take the height of $10,000.
However, the main indicators - both trend and volume indicators, as well as oscillators - do not yet give explicit signals for the trend change on timeframes D1 and W1. Therefore, in case the height $7,300 is broken down, it is possible to decline to the horizon $6,700. The strongest support is in the $6,000-6,100 zone - this is the level when mining becomes almost unprofitable.
According to one of the theories, one of the main reasons for the fall in quotes in 2018 in many respects are the miners. Their increased number resulted in a significant complication of the mining algorithm. And, as the price of bitcoins declined, and the profitability of mining was reduced, the owners of crypto farms began to get rid of the stocks of the coins they had mined, thus rendering themselves a truly bad service.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. No matter how you see President Trump, the US economic policy demonstrates obvious success. Forecast for the US GDP in 2018 grows together with stock indexes, and the unemployment rate should go down by the middle of next year to the lowest level for the last 50 years. As a result of the US-led trade wars, the economies of the Eurozone and China have already begun to experience serious problems. Strengthening the success, Donald Trump is likely to increase import duties further, which allows American producers not to be afraid of the dollar strengthening.
At the same time, 88% of respondents interviewed by the Wall Street Journal expect that the Fed will increase interest rates four times this year. And it also fuels interest in the American currency.
And then the Turkish lira has hit the euro. Against the deterioration in US-Turkish relations over the past few days, it has "dried up" with respect to the dollar by about 25%.
It's no secret that a number of major European banks are lending to the Turkish economy, and a sharp reduction in the price of its currency can create serious difficulties for them. This is what an article in the Financial Times said, fueling panic. As a result, starting from Thursday August 9, the pair EUR/USD has sharply gone down.
Recall that 70% of the experts had voted that the pair would go down to the medium-term support 1.1505, which was reached by the pair on Friday. But it did not intend to stop there and fell another 120 points, groping for the local bottom at the level of 1.1385. At the end of the week's session, after a slight rebound, the pair was traded in the zone 1.1410;

- GBP/USD. The future of the British pound looks even gloomier than a week ago. The statements of the British Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox about 60% probability of a hard version of Brexit sounded in unison with the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney and strengthened the pessimism of the market.
Last week, most analysts (70%) predicted a decline of the GBP/USD to the minimum values of the summer of 2017, which was what happened. The weekly low was fixed at 1.2720, and the end of the five-day period was at 1.2765;

- USD/JPY. The expansion of the trade war between the US and China, combined with the Turkish crisis, play into the hands of the Japanese yen as a safe haven. As a result, it won back about 35 points from the dollar, finishing the week at around 110.90;

- Cryptocurrencies. This market was still controlled by the bears. Moreover, their pressure has greatly increased. The market capitalization has fallen by about 10% and now stands at about $230 billion.
In our last week forecast, we indicated that the strongest support for bitcoin is in the $6,000-6,100 zone, the level when mining becomes almost unprofitable. This forecast was 100% true: on Thursday August 8, the pair BTC/USD reached the low at $6,125, after which it fought back and rose to the area of 6,500.
The Ethereum (ETH) lost about 14.5% in the week, Litecoin (LTH) - 22%, ripple (XRP) - more than a quarter of its value.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- the main factors that determine the movement of dollar pairs for the near future, have been described above. As for the EUR/USD, 60% of analysts believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair will go down. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1, most indicators agree with this development. The target is the zone 1.1120-1.1300.
On the other hand, 40% of the experts have voted that the pair will be able to stay in the echelon 1.1370-1.1515 in the near future, which is confirmed by signals that it is oversold, which are filed by 15% of the oscillators;

- GBP/USD. Zone 1.2770 is a fairly strong level of support/resistance, which the pair repeatedly tested in both 2016 and 2017.
55% of experts believe that the negative momentum of the pair will continue for some time, and it may drop to support 1.2675-1.2720. As for the remaining 45% of analysts, in their opinion, the pair is already expecting a corrective retreat to the upper boundary of the medium-term downward channel in the zone 1.2940. And only after having reached this height, it will turn around and continue its movement to the south. Both graphical analysis and 20% of oscillators that signal the that this pair is oversold agree with this scenario;

- USD/ PY. If you look at the graphs on the time frames D1 and W1, you can see the expected breakdown of the lower boundary of the medium-term channel, which began at the end of last March. It is still too early to consider this a breakthrough, but almost 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the strengthening of the yen, as a safe haven, will continue, and the pair will drop to at least 110.30. The next support is 100 points lower.
On the other hand, the Pivot Point area of the last 12 months can be considered the zone of 111.60-110.80, which indicates the possibility of the pair rebounding upwards - to the resistance of 112.00-112.25, with which 30% of analysts and the graphic analysis on D1 agree;


- Cryptocurrencies. Negative sentiment in this market is constantly fueled by negative publications in the media. Thus, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has predicted in his article in the New York Times, a complete collapse for the entire cryptocurrency market. The reason is the high cost of transactions with virtual money, which makes it unprofitable to use it in trading operations. According to Bloomberg, the volume of commercial operations with bitcoin around the world in May fell to a meager amount of $60 million.
Another publication, in the Wall Street Journal, confirms the version that the volatility of cryptocurrencies is not subject to any economic justification. For example, their rate is influenced by the actions of organized groups of "gray traders" that are created in social networks, such as Telegram. According to the WSJ version, 175 cases of such market manipulation were registered in half a year, when a sharp jump up of the cryptocurrency is followed by a sharp collapse. This manipulation has been called "Pump and Dump".
As for the near future of the pair BTC/USD, it is possible that it may linger in the $5.760-6.800 zone for some time. This is expected, of course, if the week does not bring any important news - either real, or "inflated" according to the " Pump and Dump" scheme. It is important to note that the level of 5.760 is the support that the pair could not overcome from the very beginning of its fall on December 17, 2017.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Most analysts (60%), supported by graphical analysis and indicators, expected the pair to fall to the 1.1120-1.1300 zone. And indeed, the pair reached the level of 1.1300 on Wednesday August 15, but did not go lower, turned around and returned to zone 1.1400 by the end of the week .Analysts call the stabilization of the situation with the Turkish lira as one of the main reasons for the trend change, although they do not rule out that the lull is temporary, and soon the storm will come again;

- GBP/USD. 45% of experts, supported by 20% of the oscillators, who signaled that this pair is oversold, were expecting a correction, which occurred earlier this week: on Tuesday the pair rose to the level of 1.2825. However, the main forecast was that the downward trend will continue. Problems with Brexit have not gone away, so most analysts agreed that the pair would reach the zone 1.2675-1.2720 in its fall last week. Taking into account the standard backlash, this forecast also proved to be absolutely correct: the pair found the local bottom at 1.2660, and completed the five-day session at the mark 1.2745;

- USD/JPY. The expansion of the trade war between the United States and China continues to play into the hands of the Japanese yen as a safe haven. There was a hint for breakdown of the lower boundary of the medium-term rising channel of the pair in the first half of August, which began at the end of March this year. At that time, it was still too early to consider this as a real breakthrough, but almost 70% of the experts voted that the strengthening of the yen would continue, and the pair would drop at least to the horizon 110.30. This forecast was accurate as well: the minimum value of the week was fixed at 110.10, and the final chord sounded in the zone of 110.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. News from the bitcoin battlefields can be considered positive: the pair BTC/USD could not break the level of 5.760 and, as we predicted, it stayed in the corridor of $5.760-6.800. And this was despite a powerful correction, as a result of which the crypto market capitalization dropped to $189 billion at the beginning of the week. The main reason for this BTC "stability" is that mining becomes almost unprofitable below the $6,000-6,100 zone, and most miners are working on the recoupment verge right now. That is why the level of 5.760 is the support that the pair could not overcome from the very beginning of its fall on December 17, 2017.
Litecoin (LTH), ripple (XRP) and many other top coins have regained their positions after a fall in the middle of the week. The second largest crypto-currency, Ethereum (ETH), has gone up, but it is much more difficult to do it for Ethereum than for its "colleagues". Its own popularity played against the Ethereum. According to the Invest in Blockchain study, 60 of the 100 largest crypto-currencies are not based on a working product, not mentioning smaller tokens. And, recall, most ICOs were held basing on ETH, and now few successful projects are rushing to cash their Ethereum, fearing further decline of the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The main factors determining the movement of dollar pairs in the coming week will be the next stage of negotiations between the US and China, as well as the Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell's speech at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
The investors do not pin hopes on the US-China talks. But they expect some clarity from Powell regarding the policy of quantitative tightening and raising interest rates. According to a number of economists, if instability in world markets continues, it could lead to a crisis in emerging markets, and that, in turn, will lead to a new global financial crisis. And the current problems of Turkey are just the first sign.
In the meantime, the experts' opinions are divided as follows: 55% of them, supported by graphical analysis and oscillators on D1, are for the further fall of the pair, 45% along with graphical analysis and oscillators for H4, are for its growth. In this case, it should be taken into account that on H4, it is already 10% of the oscillators that signal the pair is overbought.
The nearest target for the bulls is 1.1525, the following targets are 1.1575 and 1.1630. The bear target is the zone 1.1270-1.1300, then a support follows at 1.1165;

- GBP/USD. It seems that even the impressive volume of retail sales cannot assist the British pound: fears about the tough scenario Brexit outweigh everything. Most analysts (60%) predict further strengthening of the dollar and decline of the pair first to the level of 1.2660, and then on to zone 1.2600.
An alternative point of view is expressed by 40% of experts who expect a correction and a return of the pair to the upper boundary of the medium-term downtrend channel, 1.3010. Intermediate resistance levels are 1.2825, 1.2910 and 1.2950. It is important to note that when we move from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bulls' supporters among experts increases from 40% to 65%;


- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that it is already 15% of the oscillators that signal the pair is oversold, the overwhelming majority of experts believe that the global trends, or rather, the economic wars unleashed by US President Trump, will determine the trends in this case. They are expecting continued mutual reproaches and threats to introduce new import duties from the upcoming US-China talks, and therefore the demand for the yen as a safe haven will grow. 75% of analysts expect the pair to fall into the 109.00 zone, and only 25% voted for its return to the levels of 111.00-112.00. The next target is the height of 113.15.
If we talk about the medium-term forecast, 65% of experts are confident that the pair will not be able to overcome the very strong support of 2017-18. in the 108.00 zone in its fall and will eventually return to the upper boundary of the two-year horizontal channel 114.45;

- Cryptocurrencies. Negative sentiment continues to dominate this market, severely limiting the new investment flow. However, the growth of capitalization in the second half of the previous week higher than the $204 billion mark is a good signal: traders continue to buy bitcoin and altcoins in times of recessions. Nevertheless, you cannot call such trades long-term investments. Rather, it is intraday and intraweek trade, when traders quickly close their bullish positions. That's why it will be difficult enough for bitcoin to rise above the resistance of $6,830. Any significant positive news may serve as the driver in this case, thanks to which the pair BTC/USD will be able to move to the level of $6,850-7,150.
The breakdown of the support of $5.760 will, most likely, be a very strong signal for the mass sale of cryptocurrencies. Although, according to experts, such a scenario is unlikely in the near future for the reasons described in the first part.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the US-China talks did not bring clarity: the only information came from the PRC Ministry of Commerce, which reported that the talks were frank and useful. Such a wording can be considered as the absence of specific results. Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was not revolutionary either and dropped the dollar by just 30 points.
In general, over the week, the euro rose by almost 200 points, which, in the first place, was caused by serious problems around the US president and his surrounding, which could turn into prison terms for his assistants and the criminal prosecution of Trump himself. The US decision to postpone the question of raising duties on cars from the EU played in favor of the euro as well. As a result, the pair completed the week session where 45% of experts had expected - at 1.1622, close to resistance 1.1630;

- GBP/USD. Following the euro, the British pound grew against the dollar, reaching the middle of the medium-term downtrend, which began back in spring. The pair reached the marks of the beginning of August and met the end of the five-day period at 1.2845;

- USD/JPY. Recall that 75% of analysts expected the pair to fall into the 109.00 zone, and 25% voted for its return to the levels of 111.00-112.00. The pair, according to the expectations of the majority, really went down and on Tuesday, August 21, it dropped to the level of 109.75. However, the drop ceased, and then the forecast of the remaining 25% of the experts was implemented: the pair rose to the area of 111.00-112.00, reaching the height of 111.50.The final chord sounded a little lower - at around 111.25;

- Cryptocurrencies. The main bad news of the week is that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected five more (nine in total) applications to launch Bitcoin -oriented investment funds (Bitcoin-ETF). The main reason for the rejection is the same - the problems of crypto-exchanges with fraud and price manipulation. The good news is that the SEC can still reconsider its decision. The bulls were also pleased with the news that the world's first blockchain-based bonds issued by Bank of Australia, are actively bought by investors.
As for the crypto market capitalization, it has grown slightly and amounted to just over $210 billion.
In this situation, the pair BTC/USD continued to move almost all the time in a rather narrow range of $6,230-6,65 0. As we assumed, it was difficult enough for bitcoin to gain a foothold above the resistance of $6,830. The attempt on August 22 failed: reaching $6,885, the pair quickly turned around and returned to the weekly range. The next attempt occurred on Friday night, when the thin market becomes even thinner.
The breakdown of support $6,230 is hampered by the fact that it is already now that most miners are working on the verge of payback. And if there is a fall below the $6,000-6,100 zone, mining becomes almost unprofitable.
Litecoin (LTH), ripple (XRP) and many other top coins, have followed the bitcoin into a flat state. But the Ethereum (ETH) has once again demonstrated negative dynamics, having lost about 15% during the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. No results in the US-China talks, possible impeachment of President Trump. One can also add the attacks of the US president towards the head of the Federal Reserve. The latter fell out of favor with Trump because of an excessively tight financial policy and an increase in lending rates. All this still creates uncertainty in the market, as a result of which the opinions of experts are divided as follows:
- 45% of them, supported by most oscillators and graphical analysis for H4, are in favor of further weakening of the dollar and the pair's transition to the zone 1.1630 -1.1750. The next resistance is 1.1840;
- 30% of analysts still believe in the dollar and are waiting for the pair to return to the mid-August low. The nearest support is 1.1430, the target is 1.1300. Graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators, signaling that the American currency is overbought, side with these analysts;
- and, finally, the remaining 25% of experts simply could not make a decision in this situation.
If we move to longer-term forecasts, more than 60% of experts give preference to the dollar. Thus, for example, while the EU is deciding whether to continue or not stimulating monetary policy, JP Morgan analysts forecast the euro/dollar rate at the level of 1.1000-1.1200 by the end of the year. The reasons are the same: Brexit, Italy and Turkey, along with other countries on the perimeter of the European Union. However, JP Morgan analysts do not exclude the rise of the European currency to the level of 1.1900 afterwards, but this will not happen until spring 2019;

- GBP/USD. According to the graphical analysis, the future of this pair looks as follows: first growth to the upper boundary of the descending channel (zone 1.3000-1.3080), then rebound and fall first to support 1.2660, and then even lower, to the level of 1.2585. As for the indicators, there is a complete confusion among them. Some signal that the pair is overbought, some say it is oversold, some are painted red, others are green or neutral gray. A similar confusion can be seen among the experts as well. However, when we look at forecasts for autumn, the picture becomes more clear - here it is already more than 65% of analysts who talk about the growth of the pair. The targets, however, are still rather vague - from 1.3100 to 1.3500;

- USD/JPY. The yen continues to be pressured by low inflation, which speaks of weak demand and hinders the GDP growth. The head of the Central Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda has once even promised to commit hara-kiri if inflation does not reach the target of 2%. But the price increase is still extremely weak and has not even reached 1%. However, let's hope that Mr. Kuroda will not rush to fulfill his deadly promises.
Meanwhile, the regulator continues the stimulating policy of negative rates and large-scale buying up of assets. Against this background, even despite the US-China trade wars and other US problems, the dollar may continue its growth. At least that's what 65% of experts think, indicating 112.00, 113.50 and 114.70 as targets.
An alternative point of view is represented by 35% of analysts, graphical analysis on D1 and 20% of oscillators giving signals that the pair is overbought. If this bearish scenario gets a continuation, the pair is expected to go down to the area of 109.75-110.10. The nearest support is 110.75;


- Cryptocurrencies. Both bitcoin and major altcoins are close to their lows, and the crisis of confidence in the sector and the lack of positive news impedes the development of a strong bullish impulse. Although, as we noted earlier, such news most often does not entail any serious economic consequences and are only a reason for the next speculation.
The targets for the BTC/USD are the same. The target for the bulls is taking the height of $6,850, and then $7,760, for the bears it is to break the support of $6,230, then $6,000 and to go down to a low of $5,760. A fall below this mark may become a strong signal for a massive sell-off of cryptocurrencies and lead to a complete market collapse. And this is against the interests of all its participants, even those who are currently playing on the decline. Therefore, if the breakdown occurs, it is likely to be short-lived, and the pair will again return to the zone above $6,000. Although some analysts predict a drop to the level of $4,700.
And now, here is news for super-optimists and long-term investors, who are prepared to keep bitcoin until complete victory. The Telegram Channel What's on Crypto noted that after each halving of the mining award, the bitcoin price increased by dozen times. At the first reduction of fees on November 28, 2012, the pair BTC/USD traded at $12.With the second reduction on July 9, 2016, the rate was about $657. The third decline (from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 per block) should occur in the middle of 2020 and, if the forecast goes right, by 2023 the rate of this cryptocurrency can reach $10 million per coin. Whether it is true or not, we will learn "soon" - it's "only" about five years to wait.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the week was full of multidirectional economic news, which caused first growth, and then the fall of this pair. Recall that 45% of experts, relying on the problems in the US-Chinese negotiations and the contradictions between the US president and the head of the Fed, predicted a further weakening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the height of 1.1750. As a result, the pair reached the high at 1.1735.
Weak statistics from the eurozone supported those 35% of analysts who had talked about strengthening the dollar. As a result, those 25% of experts proved to be completely right, who could not decide on the direction of the main trend, because, after the week's fluctuations, the pair eventually returned to the values of a week ago and completed the five-day period at 1.1600.
If we look at the charts D1 and W1, it is clear that after the August peak and fall to 1.1300 the pair has once again entered the side channel 1.1575-1.1750, where it moved all mid-summer;

- GBP/USD. Problems related to Brexit continue to scare off foreign investors. The data published on Thursday August 30 indicate that they continue to actively get rid of British assets. The sale off of government bonds has reached its peak since 1982. - £ 17.2 billion. Despite this, the pound managed not only to hold positions, but even to win back about 200 points against the dollar after the EU negotiator Michel Barnier announced on Wednesday that he was ready to make the Brits a unique trade proposal. However, Mr. Barnier played back a little later, saying that he did not rule out the hard version of Brexit, as a result of which the pair met the end of the week session at the level of 1.2960;

- USD/JPY. Recall that most experts (65%) predicted the growth of the pair, indicating a target level of 112.00. The fact that the pair is overbought which was signaled by 20% of the oscillators, could limit this growth and turn the trend around. The level 110.75 was called as the nearest support.
In reality, the pair rose to the height of 111.82, and then fell to the horizon of 110.70, so these goals can be considered fairly accurate. The final chord was set in the zone 111.10, which can be considered Pivot Point of the last six weeks;

- Cryptocurrencies. The crypto market has successfully survived the information that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected another batch of applications for the launch of bitcoin-funded investment funds (bitcoin-ETF). There was more optimism thanks to the hope for the revision of these applications, as well as the information that Yahoo Finance has acquired an opportunity to carry out trade operations with bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum.
The experts called the taking of the height of $ 6,850, and then $ 7,760 as bulls' targets for the pair BTC/USD. Backed by the positive news, the pair easily broke through the resistance of $6,850, but the strength of the bulls dried up at the height of $7,130 and it returned to the resistance zone, turning it into a support zone. However, the pair was able to rise again above $7,000 by the end of the week.
As for the major altcoins, their graphs repeated the dynamics of the main crypto currency, but it was only Litecoin (LTH) that managed to fix a small growth, adding about 9%. But Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), after growing in the middle of the week, returned to their original values.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The main trends for the upcoming week can be defined as follows: the small growth of the pair in its first half and the fall towards the end of the five-day period.
15% of oscillators on H4 indicate the pair is oversold. In addition, the market expects negative data on business activity in the US on Tuesday, September 04, which may weaken the dollar and allow the pair to rise to the 1.1700-1.1750 zone. The next resistance is at 1.1800.
However, most experts (60%) expect the dollar to strengthen. This should be facilitated by the release of a series of data on the labor market, including data from ADP on Thursday and NFP indicators on Friday, which are expected to become a strong support for the dollar and may bring the pair closer to the mid-August low in zone 1.1300. The nearest support is in the zone 1.1500-1.1525. The graphical analysis on H4 and D1 also agrees with this development.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the positive dynamics of GDP growth and a strong labor market are quite powerful factors for tightening the monetary policy of the Fed and, as a consequence, of the further strengthening of the US currency;

- GBP/USD. Most analysts (60%) are looking north. They remember both the unique proposal of Michel Barnier and the fact that the index of business activity in the service sector of Great Britain can show a significant increase in August, from 53.5 to 54.7, which will become a serious bullish stimulus for the sterling. As a result, the correction may continue, and the pair will rise to the zone 1.3140-1.3170. More than 80% of oscillators on D1 are painted green as well.
An alternative view is expressed by graphical analysis on D1 and 40% of experts, who are confident that Brexit problems will outweigh any positive economic data. This is the reason that the pair will soon return to the downtrend. The nearest support in the zone 1.2800, the main target is 1.2660;

- USD/JPY. Graphical analysis on D1 draws a motion in the lateral channel with a rather narrow range 110.00-111.4 5. More than 55% of experts and oscillators agree with this scenario, the oscillators are approximately equally colored in green, red and neutral gray colors. The reasons for such a forecast are the same. They are on the one hand, low inflation, which hinders Japan's GDP growth, and the success of the US economy, as well as, on the other hand, the role of the yen as a safe haven in the US-China wars and scandals related to the election of US President Donald Trump.
In case the pair goes out of the above corridor, the following support is located at 109.30 and 108.65, and the resistance is 112.15 and 113.15;

- Cryptocurrencies. The bearish targets for the BTC/USD pair are still the same: the breakdown of support $6,230, then $6,000 and a descent to a low of $5,760. However, if nothing extraordinary happens, the decline below the mining profitability level in the $6,000-6,230 zone seems almost impossible now.
From the point of view of most experts, the growth of the pair is more likely to reach $7.760, then correction, and a new jump upwards, now to the high of July 25, $8.500.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. As for the trends and their changes, the forecast given last week turned out to be absolutely accurate: starting from Tuesday, September 6, we saw the weakening of the dollar and the pair's growth, and the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pair at the end of the week, thanks to the positive data on the labor market in the US. As for the volatility, even despite the end of the summer, it was significantly lower than expected: the maximum range of fluctuations was only 130 points. The market reacted sluggishly even to the growth of NFP (Non-farm Payrolls) by 36.7% (from 147K to 201K), and as a result, the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1552, improving the dollar position by only 50 points;

- GBP/USD. Unlike the euro, the volatility of the pound, due to new statements by European officials on Brexit, is only growing, and amounted to over 240 points last week. The last jump of the pound was caused by the EU negotiator Michel Barnier's statements regarding the situation with the border between Great Britain and Ireland. As a result, as most analysts (60%) had assumed, the pair went north, reaching the level of 1.3025 by mid-Friday. However, later, driven by the news on the US labor market, the dollar played back 110 points, as a result of which the pair, similar to EUR/USD, returned to the values of the start of the week, having stopped at the level of 1.2915;

- USD/JPY. The forecast, which had been supported by more than 55% of experts, oscillators and graphical analysis on D1, suggested the movement of the pair in the side channel with a rather narrow range of 110.00-111.45. This scenario turned out to be quite accurate, with a certain tolerance: the pair stayed within 110.37-111.75, returning to the central zone of the corridor at the end of the week and finishing at 111.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for BTC/USD had assumed first the growth of the pair to $7,760 (in reality, the pair rose to $7,400), and then a correction and a decline, but not below the level of mining profitability in the zone $6,000-6,230. In reality, the price of bitcoin fell to the support of 6.300, having lost about 15% in 16 hours. The situation with Ethereum is even sadder for the bulls: the pair ETH/USD has lost almost 30%, having fallen from the mark of 302.1 to 211.6. The price of Litecoin (LTH) has fallen by 22%, that of the Ripple (XRP) - by 20%.
There are two possible reasons for this: 1) the decision of ShapeShift crypto platform to enter the users' registration and to start collecting their personal data, and 2) the news (which later turned out to be a fake) that Goldman Sachs will not create a special unit for trading cryptocurrencies.
In fact, neither of these two pieces of news had any meaningful significance for the crypto market, these are just private solutions of private companies. But, as it has been said many times before, suffice the big players to wish to collapse the market, and they will always find an excuse for this.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, the most important events await us on Thursday, September 13. The ECB's interest rate decision and the ECB's press conference are expected on that date. As for the interest rate, there are no surprises expected here. But as for the press conference, some information on the timing of the tightening of monetary policy in the Eurozone may sound, although this is unlikely to happen in the nearest future. This though cannot be said about the decisions of the US Federal Reserve.
On the same Thursday, the data on the US inflation will be published, the high rates of which have become a serious signal for raising the interest rate by the Fed. The market is almost 100% confident that this will happen in September. Traders and experts are waiting for an answer to the question whether there will be another increase in December.
Basing on these expectations, most analysts (60%) vote for the growth of the dollar and a fall of the pair. Graphical analysis on D1 and about 85% of oscillators and trend indicators agree with them. The nearest support is 1.1530 and 1.1400, the targets for the end of September - the beginning of October are 1.1300 and 1.1125.
The remaining 40% of experts believe that the correction of the pair is not over yet, and therefore it can move in the side channel 1.1530-1.1745 for a while. Graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators that signal the pair is oversold, agree with this;


- GBP/USD. Macroeconomic data from the UK will be released on Monday (GDP), and on Tuesday (pay), and again on Thursday, when the Bank of England will announce its decision on the interest rate. The rate is most likely to remain at the level of 0.75%, so it is not the rate itself that is of interest, but the number of votes given for its rise. And, traditionally, the market will closely follow the news about Britain's "divorce" from the European Union.
In this situation, the readings of trend indicators, as well as the opinions of experts, are divided in two equal parts. Oscillators do not give clear signals either: about 50% of them are painted in a neutral color, 25% are green, 25% are red.
As for the graphical analysis, it shows the further growth of the dollar and the decline of the pair first into the zone 1.2785-1.2800, and then even lower, to the level of 1.2660, on D1. As for H4, graphical analysis does not exclude that, before going south, the pair will move along Pivot Point 1.2935 in the horizontal channel 1.3035-1.3040 for several days;

- USD/JPY. The financial community paid attention to the article of James Freeman in the Wall Street Journal, which said, if briefly, that Japan will soon become a new target in the trade wars of Donald Trump. At such, Freeman refers to a personal telephone conversation with the US President.
So, Japan is on the brink of war, which it tried to avoid. If you add to this the increase in sales tax planned for the next year and dependence on the Iranian oil, the preponderance of forces is on the side of the Americans. The growth of wages and expenditures of households, leading inflation to the coveted bar in 2%, side with the Japanese.
So far, the experts' votes have been divided as follows: 55% are for the fall of the pair, 45% are for its growth. The indicators do not give any clear picture, and the graphical analysis on H4 draws the pair's oscillations within 110.30-111.80. When switching to the time frame D1, the oscillation range expands to 109.80-112.15;

- Cryptocurrencies. Most likely, bears will not stop there, and the pair BTC/USD will still try to break through the level of $6,000 and get close to this year's low in the $5.760 zone. Although it is possible that it will take a breather for some time, moving to the east in the corridor of $6,230-6,640. The next resistance is in the zone $6,895-6,985.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The dollar was under pressure for all five days, the difference between the weekly high and the low was about 200 points. Nothing special was said at the press conference following the ECB meeting, the plan to tighten the Eurozone monetary policy remained unchanged. Therefore, the main reasons for the US currency fall can be named as deflation in the US, called by the experts "the Fed's nightmare", and the decision of the Turkish regulator to increase the interest rate by as much as 625 points. This resulted in the Turkish lira going up and pulling up not only the currencies of developing countries, but also the euro.
Experts had pointed to the upper boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1530-1.1745 as a ceiling for the EUR/USD growth last week. And this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct: the maximum was fixed at 1.1725, and the end of the five-day period was met by the pair at the level of 1.1622;

- GBP/USD. In general, the weekly chart of this pair is very similar to that of the EUR/USD. On Friday, September 14, the British pound rose to 1.3147, reaching a six-week high. The head of the Bank of England Mark Carney helped his currency. In his view, the lack of an agreement on Brexit will cause a crisis that will lead to a fall in the pound, which will result in a higher inflation, which, in turn, may force the British regulator to raise the interest rate. As for the last week, the final chord here sounded at around 1.3065;

- USD/JPY. The forecast, which had been given by graphical analysis on D1, had provided for the pair to grow to a height of 112.15. It was this height that the pair reached at the end of the week. It is interesting to note that while the dollar fell against many other currencies, it was actively growing against the Japanese yen. The reason for this is most likely the expectation of the start of a trade war with the United States to start and the strong dependence of Japan on the Iranian oil. As a result, the pair's growth was about 100 points in five days;

- Cryptocurrencies. As was expected, at the beginning of the week the bears tried to break through the $6,000 level, but they have not succeeded to drop bitcoin below the mining profitability zone. When approaching this level, coins are bought out, and the pair BTC/USD goes up again. However, neither the forces nor the reasons for its revolutionary growth are yet sufficient. As a result, a fairly quiet scenario was implemented last week, and the pair stayed within 6,120-6,590.
As for Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTH/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), the movement of these pairs can also be considered a side movement: after the mid-week fall, they were able to almost restore their positions by the end of the five-day period.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. From the point of view of fundamental analysis, no particularly important events are expected in the coming week. It is unlikely to expect surprises from European statistics on Monday and the speech of the ECB head M. Draghi on Tuesday. Most of the oscillators (60%) are painted in neutral grey, among the remaining, "green" has a certain advantage, 30%, the share of "red" is only 10%. "Bullish" sentiments prevail among the experts: 55% of them vote for the further growth of the pair and its transition to the zone 1.1745-1.1845.
Graphical analysis on H4 believes that the pair will remain in the corridor 1.1525-1.1745 with Pivot Point in zone 1.1630. But on D1, it does not exclude the fall of the pair to the August lows in zone 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. 60% of experts, inspired by Mark Carney and supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators, trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will continue its growth to the zone of 1.3210-1.3315.
20% of analysts have taken a neutral position, and another 20% are confident that the dollar will recover its positions and the pair will go down to supports 1.2955 and 1.2800. The final target is at the low of August 15 at the level of 1.2660. This scenario is supported by 10% of oscillators giving signals that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it specifies that the pair can grow to resistance 1.3210 before going south;


- USD/JPY. The formation of trends can be influenced by the Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, September 19 and the decision on the interest rate, which is now negative and is -0.1%. Undoubtedly, a lot will depend on the situation with trade relations between the US and China, as well as President Trump's desire to open another front of the trade war, this time with Japan. It is these factors that will determine the market's opinion on whether it is worth considering the yen as a safe haven.
At the moment, 50% of analysts vote for the return of the pair first to zone 111.00, and then to the support of 110.35, 15% of the oscillators agree with this, signaling the pair is overbought.
An alternative scenario, the growth of the pair to a height of 113.20, is supported by 35% of experts, 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1. 15% of the analysts surveyed could not determine the opinion;

- Cryptocurrencies. The stay of the BTC/USD in the corridor between $6,000 and $7,000 indicates that the market is now dominated by short-term speculators. Major long-term players have taken a wait-and-see position, while keeping a strong interest in cryptocurrencies. But it is only them who can initiate a new rally and a massive influx of funds to this market. Meanwhile, the total capitalization fluctuates around the figure of $200 billion, updating local lows repeatedly. Thus, on September 12, the next one was touched, at the level of $186 billion, after which the market returned to $200 billion. It is not excluded that we will see another attempt of the bears to break support at $6,000 next week. However, if bitcoin manages to gain a foothold above the horizon 6,620, the pair has many chances to return to the high of September 5 at the height of 7.410.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

The international broker company NordFX, in addition to MT4, launched exchange trading in cryptocurrencies based on the MetaTrader-5 platform, early September. This platform, as well as the Crypto account, is intended only for operations with cryptocurrencies, where all clients carry out transactions not with a broker or an exchange, but exclusively with each other. At the same time, the system is completely transparent: thanks to the depth of the market, each limit order is visible to all trade participants.

As before, traders have an opportunity to profit not only from the growth, but also from the fall of cryptocurrencies. As for margin trading, its opportunities have become much wider. If it is $300 that you need to open a position of 1 bitcoin on MetaTrader-4 at the moment, it is just $100 that is enough on MetaTrader-5.



Unlike many crypto exchanges, in NordFX, traders can profit not only on trading, but also on maintaining exchange liquidity. Commission fees for the maker traders are negative. That is, they receive a remuneration of 0.02% of each transaction volume. As for the commission fee charged to the taker traders, it is the lowest in the market and is only 0.09%.

Thanks to the presence of two platforms, MT4 and MT5, traders can apply a wide variety of trading strategies using dozens and hundreds of indicators. There are no restrictions on the use of expert advisers either. And thanks to the low commission and the rapid execution of orders, it has become possible to profit from the slightest market fluctuations.

In total, there are 14 main crypto pairs, cross pairs and 4 crypto-indexes available for trading 24/7/365 without holidays and holidays at the moment. The Crypto account is intended exclusively for exchange crypto trading. For traditional trading, you can use the MT4 platform, where you can also trade major fiat currencies (33 currency pairs), gold and silver, using a leverage of up to 1:1000.

The Crypto trading account for MT5 can be nominated in both US dollars and in bitcoins or Ethereums. Accordingly, depositing and withdrawal to wallets are also possible in USD, BTC and ETH. To get more information about this account and the terms of trading on the MetaTrader-5, please visit the NordFX website.

***

The NordFX computer system has a high degree of protection: there has not been a single case of its hacking during 10 years of its work in financial markets. The company has been honoured with more than 35 professional prizes and awards, among them Most Reliable Broker 2016 and 2017, Best Crypto Broker Asia 2017 and Best broker for Trading Cryptocurrencies 2018.
In total, starting from 2008, clients from more than 185 countries have opened over 1.250.000 accounts in NordFX.

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that most experts (55%) had voted for the further growth of the pair and its transition to the zone 1.1745-1.1845. This forecast turned out to be 100% true, and the pair fixed the weekly high at 1.1802 on Friday morning, having risen by 180 points in five days.
The main reason for the dollar to weaken was the hope that China and the United States could avoid a full-scale trade war. The devastating victory of the Americans became less obvious, and investors turned their attention to more risky assets and started to get rid of the dollar mass.
Another reason for the US currency fall was the delay in the deal between Canada and the US on the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). As for the upcoming interest rate raise on September 25-26, the market has already played this scenario long time ago. As a result, the dollar index fell to a two-month low. However, at the very end of Friday, the "buck" managed to win back a part of the losses, and the pair completed the week-long marathon at 1.1750;

- GBP/USD. 60% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators, trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4, felt that the pair would continue its growth to the area of 1.3210-1.3315. That was how it all happened: the week high was seen on Thursday at height 1.3296. In addition to the factors listed above, the pound growth was facilitated by positive retail sales statistics in the UK and some progress on the issue of the Irish border at the Brexit talks.
However, the pound's victory over the dollar turned out to be short-lived, and it was on Friday, that, having broken through the support of the two-week rising channel, the pair collapsed by more than 200 points, returning to the mark of the beginning of the week at 1.3075. The reason is still the same: the uncertainty for Brexit;

- USD/JPY. While the dollar was weakening against the euro and the pound, it continued to strengthen against the yen. Interest in risk-free assets this week was falling rapidly, and, in addition to the American currency, the Japanese currency was on this list as well. And the yen, having a negative interest rate of -0.1%, topped this rating of UNattractiveness for investors, ahead of the dollar. As a result, the yen lost about 50 points to the dollar, and the pair ended the week at 112.60;

- Cryptocurrencies. As expected, the bitcoin stayed in the corridor between $6,000 and $7,000, compensating the drop in the first half of the week with a subsequent rise above $6,700. The end of the five-day week was to please the holders of almost all coins from the TOP-100, which moved into the green zone. But if the growth of the ethereum (ETH/USD) or the litecoin (LTH/USD) turned out to be rather weak, the ripple (XRP/USD) became the real star of the week, jumping up by almost 45%. The factors that contributed to its rise, include the hints of the Ripple management to launch a new product xRapid, the company's exit to the world's largest Asian money transfer market and the launch of its work in Africa.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The coming week will be filled with a variety of events that can affect trends and exchange rates. As for dollar pairs, the most important of such events will be the Fed's decision on the interest rate. It goes without saying that the market has already prepared for its increase, but the volatility growth on Wednesday September 26 is still guaranteed. But if the rate remains unchanged by any chance, it will produce an explosion effect, and the dollar will collapse at a cosmic speed.
The final decision of the US Federal Reserve is still unknown. At the time of writing this forecast, the situation looks like this:
90% of the indicators, graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 55% of experts vote for the growth of the pair. The nearest target is 1.1850, the next one is 100 points higher.
45% of analysts have given their votes for the strengthening of the dollar as well as 10% of oscillators that signal the pair is overbought. Supports are 1.1620 and 1.1530. The ultimate goal in the medium term is at the low of August at the level of 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. 55% of experts also vote for the growth of this pair, 30% are for its fall, and the remaining 15% have taken a neutral position. After a sharp fall on Friday September 21, the indications of trend indicators were divided almost in half, and 20% of the oscillators signal the pair is oversold.
As for the graphical analysis, it shows a possible fall of the pair to the level of 1.3000 on H4, and as for D1, the target of the week is the level of 1.2800, after which a rebound to 1.3020 may follow.
Resistance is at the levels of 1.3165, 1.3215 and 1.3300;


- USD/JPY. Theoretically, the formation of trends could be influenced by the Bank of Japan management meeting on Tuesday, September 25, but it is hardly worth waiting for any radical decisions from it.
Most analysts (60%) believe that the yen has already made too many concessions to the dollar, and now one should expect the correction of the pair down. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this as well as 10% of oscillators on D1, giving signals that the pair is overbought. Supports are at the levels of 111.70, 111.25 and 110.75.
An alternative scenario, the growth of the pair to the height of 113.20, is supported by 40% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1. The following targets are 113.75 and 114.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. The crypto market desperately needs some positive news that can move it up. This can be the appearance of major institutional investors capable of pouring into it billions of dollars. However, some experts fear that such "whales" will very quickly supersede the small "fish" from the market, making the entire idea of decentralized finance doubtful. They name the launch of bitcoin futures last December, which laid the foundation for a massive collapse in the digital currencies rates, as an argument.
But the fears do not end there. For example, a meeting of Mt.Gox creditors is planned for September 26, where a chance to compensate the losses of former customers of this exchange by selling off reserves of 170 thousand BTC coins will be discussed. Nobody knows what can happen in this case. But it is enough to remember that in February-March this year, the bitcoin lost about 20% of the cost on the news of a similar sale. And if on September 30 the US regulator (SEC) rejects the application for the ETF launch, the rate of the model crypto currency may just as well collapse significantly below $5,000. The positive SEC decision (and even just a hint on it) could raise the pair BTC/USD above the $7,000-7,500 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

This autumn, NordFX has been awarded two prestigious awards, which mark its innovative developments and a high level of crypto trading services. The International Business Magazine has named NordFX Best Broker for Trading Cryptocurrencies, and the company has been recognized as Most Trusted Cryptocurrency Broker 2018, according to the Global Brands Magazine's expert council vote.

"Our award," writes the Global Brands Magazine, "aims to identify and recognize the significance of exceptional service delivery and reward the performance with the ultimate global Recognition. An external research team was constituted to evaluate the nominees. Data was collected by the team from different sources including third party data providers and annual reports. As per our research team, your company has been doing really well showing excellence in the field of Forex and has been qualified and recognized as Most Trusted Cryptocurrency Broker 2018.

The award is a testimony for your company, who has performed extraordinarily well and have achieved brand excellence over the last few years. Congratulations from the Global Brands Magazine!”.

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the last week had a lot of trouble for both the euro and the US dollar. The pair visited both the upper and lower boundaries of the medium-term side corridor 1.1525-1.1830 during the last five days. In the end, the victory was with the dollar. The reason for this were the Fed meeting results, along with the growth of US GDP and inflation in the Eurozone, as well as problems in Italy, whose government published the budget for 2019. with a deficit of 2.4% (instead of the expected 2%). As a result, having shown volatility of 245 points, the pair completed the weekly session at 1.1602;

- GBP/USD. Recall that last week 55% of experts voted for the growth of this pair, 30% gave their votes for its fall, and the remaining 15% were for a sideways trend. And this discrepancy turned out to be the most accurate forecast. The pair was rising for the first half of the week, reaching 1.3225 at the maximum, and was going down during the second half, feeling for a local bottom near the level of 1.3000. As a result, it went down by only 45 points during the five working days, finishing at 1.3030;

- USD/JPY. The scenario, for which 40% of analysts, graphical analysis on D1 and 100% of trend indicators had voted, provided for the pair to grow to the area of 113.20-113.75. And the pair did grow indeed, reaching the high at 113.70.
The reason for the fall of the yen were the statements of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda and the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. The first of them said that the Japanese regulator did not plan to curtail the mitigation policy. Moreover, the interest rate, which is now minus 0.1%, can be lowered further. As for Powell, he confirmed at a press conference that, in addition to the increase on Wednesday, September 26, the Fed was planning another increase in interest rates in 2018 and three more increases in 2019.
In this situation, the reaction of the markets was predictable: the dollar continued its active growth and met the end of the week at 113.68;

- Cryptocurrencies. There was no special news that could seriously move the crypto market in one direction or another last week. The cryptocurrencies included in the TOP-10 behaved accordingly. During the first half of the week, the bitcoin showed a 7.5% drop, followed by a 7.25% increase. As a result, the pair BTC/USD did not leave the range between $6,000 and $7,000, keeping in an even narrower channel, $6,325-6,835. The litecoin (LTH / USD) and the ripple (XRP/USD) are closing the week almost at the same place where they started it. It was only the ethereum (ETH/USD) that showed a drop of 8% during the seven days, dropping to $225.0 per coin, and is now at the level of September 6-7.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The overwhelming majority of experts (70%), supported by 95% of the trend indicators, are voting for further strengthening of the dollar and decline of the pair first to support 1.1525, and to the August low at 1.1300 during the month of October.
An alternative scenario has been supported by 30% of analysts and 20% of oscillators giving signals the pair is oversold. If we supplement their forecast with graphical analysis indications on H4 and D1, we can say that the growth of the pair will be limited by the upper boundary of the medium-term horizontal channel 1.1525-1.1830. The nearest target for bulls is the level of 1.1740.
As for the release of macroeconomic data, we should pay attention to the statistics on the US labor market on Friday, October 5, including the data on wages, unemployment and NFP. The consensus of American analysts predicts that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector will be 8% less than the August values, which may lead to a slight weakening of the dollar;


- GBP/USD. 55% of experts vote for the fall of this pair to the level of 1.2900, 25% are for its growth to the area of 1.3100-1.3145, and the remaining 20% have taken a neutral position. The reasons for such a preponderance of votes given for the further weakening of the pound are still the same: deterioration in the UK's economic performance and the uncertainty with Brexit.
The indicators' reading. If most of the oscillators and trend indicators are colored red on H4, about 30% are already green on D1. At the same time, about 20% of the oscillators on both timeframes indicate the pair is oversold. There is no unity in the readings of graphical analysis either: on D1, it clearly demonstrates the movement of the pair down to zone 1.2800-1.2845, and on H4 it draws a side channel 1.2980-1.3175 for the pair;

- USD/JPY. Here the voices are split exactly in half. 50% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1 and 100% of trend indicators, believe that the upward momentum is not yet exhausted, and the pair must necessarily reach a height of 114.50.
The second half of the experts expect a serious correction and the fall of the pair to support 112.00. 15% of the oscillators are also signaling that the pair is overbought, which is in favor of such a scenario;

- Cryptocurrencies. The capitalization of the crypto market as a whole has not crossed the mark of $ 250 billion, but the growth of major cryptocurrencies rates is on good volumes, indicating that the bulls are gradually gaining strength. The ripple (XRP) and the bitcoin cash (BCH) are those two altcoins that inspire investors at the moment, giving them hopes for a better future. The ripple has risen more than twice over the past three weeks, and the bitcoin cache has gone up by 30%.
Instant transfers based on protocols from Ripple are more and more likely to take away a "piece of pie" from the SWIFT system which is now reigning in the banking sector. There is an opinion that such blockchain technologies are financed by corporations wishing to hide their funds in the depths of "digital offshore companies " instantly, deeply and reliably. On the contrary, an alternative point of view ascribes the authorship to US special services, whose goal is the total control over all the world money flows. It is not known which of these theories is true, but, in any case, such virtual currencies as ripples have a weighty basis for growth.
Whether the crypto market capitalization comes close to the $300 billion mark in the near future, whether the bitcoin exceeds the $7,000 mark, dragging the altcoins up with it, depends now solely on the news background. If there are no positive news, the movement in the range of $6,000-7,000 (or in a narrower channel - $6,325-6,835) is the most likely scenario.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

With the cryptocurrency market falling, the noble yellow metal can become one of the most attractive tools for financial traders and speculators.


Gold instead of Bitcoin?

Undoubtedly, the most common thing for Forex traders is trading currency pairs and, in the first place, the majors: US dollar, British pound, Euro, Japanese yen. Transactions with these fiat currencies used to account for the lion's share of the broker companies’ turnover until the middle of last year, when they were gradually replaced by bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and other digital altcoins.

However, after the sharp drop of the bitcoin, the rush demand for virtual currency began to decline and many traders were once again facing the question how to increase their profits.

And it is right now, in autumn 2018, that it is simply necessary to recall such a profitable and time-tested instrument as the gold. After all, it is the gold that can provide stable earnings for traders.


"A Cobblestone in a Box", or Some Statistics

A few years ago, the Wall Street Journal tried to convince the readers that the gold ceased to be a safe haven, keeping you away from crises and inflation, and called this precious metal "a cobblestone in a cardboard box". The Washington Post appeared at the same time with a similar forecast, saying that "the gold was doomed". And both these respected publications were wrong.
It was seventeen years ago, on April 2, 2001, that the gold prices fell to $255.3 per troy ounce, reaching their bottom, after which the gold rallied for a decade. Such dynamics have not been observed for any other asset in the financial market.
In 2011, the gold broke through the mark of $1,900 per ounce, and it seemed that the iconic $2,000 was the reality of the nearest months. But ... then, it started as sharply, as an avalanche, to lose value. Optimists called this collapse a correction, while pessimists said it was a return to the real value. (Don't you agree, it reminds us of the situation with the bitcoin).
According to some analysts, the new bottom could be somewhere around $350 per ounce, but for all past years the price of the yellow metal has never dropped below $1000.

If you look at the World Gold Council data, it can be clearly seen that the interest in this precious metal, as a reliable haven in the moments of financial and economic storms, is constantly growing. The demand for it grew by 42% just in the first three months of 2018.
The Central banks of many countries, such as Russia, China, India and a number of others, have been actively replenishing their gold reserves in the last ten years, seeking to diversify their portfolios. Thus, for example, Russia's gold reserve has grown by 200 tons of the yellow metal in three years. In the context of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the crisis in relations with the US, the Central Bank of Turkey has also relied on the gold, having bought 86 tons last year.
Thanks to China and India, the demand for the gold is also growing in jewelry making and in industry. The demand for jewelry alone in India has exceeded 560 tons, and in China - 645 tons.
In 2017, the volume of gold reserves in the 10 largest countries amounted to about 30 thousand tons, and its value approached $12 trillion. (For comparison, the total crypto market capitalization in September 2018 is about $200 billion).

Why do we publish these figures? We just want to show that, unlike bitcoin and all kinds of altcoins, the gold has a real, not virtual, value, and therefore it is an excellent tool for exchange speculation, without any risk of falling to zero.


How to Profit on Gold

There are a lot of trading strategies that allow you to profit from transactions with the gold. But, probably, one of the most reliable and profitable strategies is trading based on the analysis of the current world macroeconomic and political trends, says NordFX leading analyst John Gordon.
In this case, the trader needs to know that the price of this precious metal largely depends on the following factors:
- When the dollar grows to other world currencies, the gold price falls. And vice versa: the dollar is falling - the gold is becoming more expensive. Suffice to look at the charts of the EUR/USD and the XAU/USD, and this correlation becomes obvious;
- The higher the price of energy (especially oil prices), the higher the gold prices;
- Geopolitical tension in the world, cold and hot conflicts and wars, especially in the gold-mining regions, is the most fertile ground for the gold price growth. And the stronger such tension is, the more rapidly the price rises;
- World economic crises are also a "fertilizer" in which "golden spikes" show impressive growth, offering investors a shelter from financial storms and shocks.

When starting trading in precious metals, it is necessary to bear in mind that such transactions with Forex brokers differ from transactions with traditional currencies. Thus, for example, the volume of a lot here is measured not in money, but in grams or kilograms. 1 lot is equal to 100 troy ounces, in other words, 3.11 kg of this noble metal. That is, with the current price of $1,200 per 1 ounce, in monetary terms, the volume of 1 lot will be $120,000.
It is clear that the absolute majority of traders do not have this amount available, so the need to use a credit leverage becomes obvious. The broker NordFX offers using the leverage ratio of up to 1: 1000 on three types of trading accounts: Fix, Pro and Zero. And given the fact that the minimum transaction size at NordFX is 0.01 lots, the trader only needs about 1.5 dollars to enter the precious metals market.


Medium-Term and Long-Term Forecasts



As for the forecasts for the upcoming 2019, the overwhelming majority of experts are betting on the growth of the gold price. "It seems to be ready for the next stage of the bull market, which began around 2000," writes Hubert Moolman at 24hgold.com, "breaking through the $1375 level will be the definitive confirmation of this."

According to ABN Amro senior analyst Georgette Boele, the gold price in 2019 has a chance to rise to 1400 dollars. "By the end of 2018 the US dollar and 10-year US Treasury bonds will reach a peak, and then will start to decline. The fall of the yuan came to an end and a significant escalation of the trade conflict was prevented. Therefore, the price of precious metals is likely to be restored, "- says Bole.
Analysts at JP Morgan Commodities Research are also optimistic about the future. In 2019, they expect the price of $1412, in 2020 - $1,460. A similar price, $1,450, is also named by the Goldman Sachs investment bank experts.

As for a longer-term perspective, here we should pay attention to the forecast of Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. According to the ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan, the revenue growth in Asia will have serious consequences for the gold market, and by 2025 the price could rise above $2,000.

One of the most courageous forecasts has been given by the Gilburt Financial Services manager and the wave analysis specialist Avi Gilburt. It should be noted that he had accurately predicted the completion of the correction in 2015 and the transition to an important phase of the bull market, which, in his opinion, could last for the next 50 years, raising the gold price to $25 thousand per troy ounce!


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#gold #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The US market sees a continuing correction, which leads to a weaker dollar. On Thursday, October 11, the US stock index S&P500 lost the next 2%, causing investors to get rid of dollar assets. The process was also pushed up by the news that Donald Trump wants to meet with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jingping during the G20 summit. This was taken as a possible weakening of the US position. As a result, having made a throw from south to north, the pair returned to the borders of the mid-term side corridor 1.1525-1.1830, which started in May, and completed the five-day period at 1.1560;

- GBP/USD. The weakening of the dollar could not help but affect this pair. On Friday, October 12, it rose to the height of 1.3255, and the difference between the two-week minimum and maximum exceeded 335 points. True, at the very end of the week, after an impressive growth, there followed a rebound down, and the pair met the end of the session at around 1.3150;

- USD/JPY. The Japanese yen returned to the mid-September values, thus strengthening against the dollar. The formation of this trend was influenced by the negative reaction of major players to the increasing volatility in the world markets and their desire to hide part of their capital in a quiet Japanese harbor. As a result, the final chord of the week sounded in the zone 112.20;

- Cryptocurrencies. One could say that there are no changes on the digital front, because the BTC/USD pair has not gone below the level of mining profitability. Although it made investors nervous, in just a few hours the price of bitcoin fell by $420, dropping to a three-week low of $6.215. The fall of the benchmark cryptocurrency was caused by the collapse of the US stock market and the IMF report, which spoke about the problems of cybersecurity and that digital currencies could become a new cause of the global financial system vulnerability. The absence of the American regulator (SEC) decision on the request for the ETF launch did not add optimism to the market either.
The rest of the top pairs followed the bitcoin down as well. The total capitalization of the crypto market declined by $15 billion. Although bitcoin and such altcoins as l litecoin (LTH/USD), ripple (XRP/USD) and ethereum (ETH/USD), managed to win back some losses by the end of the week, the victory remained for bears.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The next week is literally overflowing with events that may affect the formation of trends in the dollar pairs. These are both macroeconomic statistics from the USA, and data on inflation in the Eurozone, Great Britain and China. The current economic sentiment index will be presented by Germany and the EU, and the minutes of the US Federal Reserve Committee meeting will be published on Wednesday. A serious impact on the market will be rendered by the data on China's GDP, and, of course, the results of the EU Brexit summit.
All these events involve a huge number of scenarios. In such a situation, both oscillators and trend indicators are in complete confusion. But most experts (60%) believe that, returning to the boundaries of the corridor 1.1525-1.1830, the pair will move up for a while, first towards the center, and then towards the upper boundary of this channel. The targets are 1.1650 and 1.1735.
The alternative scenario is supported by the fact that, after updating the highs, the yield on 10-year US bonds went down, indicating a possible strengthening of the dollar. The support levels are 1.1430 and 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. As in the previous case, here again 60% of analysts have given their votes for the upward movement of the pair. In their opinion, the pair should rise to the zone 1.3225-1.3245. The next target is the height of 1.3300. According to the experts, there are still many opportunities for the pound to strengthen, and, first of all, the market is waiting for positive news regarding Brexit.
80% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators on D1 also vote for the growth of the pair, and a number of them indicate that the pair is oversold.
It should be noted that in the medium term the odds go over to the bears and here it is already 55% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, who expect the pair to fall to the lows of early October in the zone 1.2920;

- USD/JPY. For this pair, the bears win with a small margin (45%). In their opinion, the dollar will continue to fall, and the quotes will approach the level of 111.00. This scenario is supported by 70% of trend indicators and oscillators. However, it is already 20% of oscillators on D1 that signal about the pair being oversold.
35% of analysts vote for lateral movement, and the remaining 20% are for an uptrend with the targets of 113.15, 114.00 and 114.55.
As for the graphical analysis, according to its readings, the pair will first rise to the resistance of 113.15, and then abruptly go down to support 111.70, and then further, trying to reach the local bottom in the 111.00 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. In its fall on Thursday, October 11, the bitcoin broke through the uptrend support line, which started back on September 8th. If the fall continues, we will be able to see the pair BTC/USD in the $6,100 zone. The next support is at the level of $5,870. However, in the absence of sharply negative news, the most likely, according to analysts, is the return of the bitcoin to the $6,325-6,835 zone. This forecast is based, among other things, on the results of the Chainalysis study, which has shown that the major players very often try to stabilize the rate by buying coins during the time of correction. That is what is happening at the moment.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the past week was filled with all sorts of events. These included macroeconomic statistics from the USA, data on inflation in Europe, the UK and China, indices of current economic sentiments in Germany and the EU, the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee on Open Market, data on China’s GDP and the EU Brexit summit.
All of these could affect the trends formation. Therefore, our experts considered two main scenarios. The first, "bullish" one, was the growth of the pair, first to the center of the medium-term channel 1.1525-1.1830, and then to its upper border. And the second, the “bearish”, the strengthening of the dollar and its decline to support 1.1430.
So, all these events happened, everything that could have happened, did happen. And what was the result? Well, there was no result. First, the pair implemented half of the “bullish” forecast, having risen to the level of 1.1621, then the “bearish” one, having touched the bottom in the 1.1430 zone, after which it returned to where it had already been two weeks before, as well as in August, in June, and even in May, to the level 1.1513;

- GBP/USD. The forecast given by most analysts and confirmed by 80% of the trend indicators and 70% of the oscillators on D1, has come true by 100%. According to the experts, the pair was supposed to reach the height of 1.3225, which it did on Tuesday, October 16.
In the medium term, the initiative should have passed into the hands (or paws) of the bears, who were supposed to have dropped it to the lows of early October in the 1.2920 zone. All this really happened in the second half of the week, the trend turned south, but so far, the pair was able to achieve only support 1.3010, after which a rebound followed, and it ended the session in 1.3065 zone;

- USD/JPY. Last week, it was not possible to give any clear recommendations on this pair: 45% of the experts voted for its decline, 20% for its growth, and 35% were for the sideways movement. These 35% turned out to be right: the maximum range of fluctuations of the pair did not exceed 110 points. The result was even more modest: having started from the level of 112.20, the pair finished the week at 112.55. Thus, the dollar managed to win back from the yen only 3 5 points in five days;

- Cryptocurrencies. We constantly write that the main factor determining the cryptocurrencies rates is not the economy and not the technical analysis figures, but the news and the rumors. The past week was a clear confirmation of this.
On the morning of Monday, October 15, most bitcoin owners jumped out of their beds, shouting "Hallelujah!" it started finally: the rate of this reference currency on some exchanges soared from the mark of $6,380 to $7,700 in just a couple of hours, that is, more than 20%!
This news was caused by problems with the Tether (USDT) cryptocurrency. Ordinary traders began to urgently sell off the stablecoin, buy up the bitcoin, as a result of which, the BTC/USD rate literally rushed into space.
But the happiness didn't last long. It became clear soon that all this was just a provocation, after which a no less sharp collapse followed, and the rate returned to the usual values of the past month and a half. As a result, the authors of these fake news earned good money, and those who bought into this fake, lost a lot. Those whose Stop Loss or Margin Call worked as a result of the jump are also sad.
We did not know what could happen on Monday October 15. But the forecast that the bitcoin, pushing off from the lowest point of its amplitude, should return to $6,325-6,835, turned out to be absolutely correct: the BTC/USD met Saturday at $6.535.
The bitcoin fate was repeated by the rest of the top cryptocurrencies: many, like, for example, the ripple (XRP/USD) and the ethereum (ETH/USD), ended the week with a slight increase, other, like the litecoin (LTH/USD), finished with the nil result.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Although some analysts talk about five, and even about ten key events of the coming week, in our opinion, it is not worth focusing on the economic calendar in this case, and it will not bring any special surprises for traders. Therefore, it may be worthwhile to pay more attention to longer-term forecasts and technical analysis.
Giving a forecast for the EUR/USD pair, most experts (70%) assess the outlook for the dollar positively. In their opinion, the goals of the pair are still the support levels of 1.1430 and 1.1300. About 70% of trend indicators and oscillators on H4 and more than 80% on D1 agree with this scenario.
The remaining experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair has just moved one level down, and now the lower limit of the medium-term corridor 1.1525-1.1830 has become a Pivot Point for the new side channel 1.1430-1.1625, in which the pair will move for some time;


- GBP/USD. Negotiations on Brexit reached another deadlock last week. It became clear that it will not be possible to complete the deal between London and Brussels by mid-November. Against this background, more than 90% of the experts, supported by the absolute majority of indicators, expect the British pound to go further down. The closest support is 1.3010, the goal is 1.2900. The nearest resistance is at 1.3100-1.3130, the following is much higher, at 1.3215;

- USD/JPY. If for the pair GBP/USD the experts expect the dollar to strengthen, the picture for the USD/JPY is reversed: in their opinion, the Japanese yen should strengthen. Both 65% of analysts, graphical analysis, and oscillators on D 1 agree with this. The goals are 112.00, 111.65 and 110.70.
An alternative point of view is presented by 35% of analysts and 70% of indicators on H4. The resistance levels 112.75 and 113.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. It is clear that we, similar to most analysts, cannot predict the stuffing of the next fake news. However, there circulate sustained rumors that the Wall Street is preparing a second wave of invasion to the crypto market. One of the largest holding companies Fidelity Investments, Goldman Sachs, as well as other investment banks can become a “shock force”. However, these are all hopes of the blockchain apologists.
At the moment, the market is in a state of consolidation, and therefore we can only repeat the previous forecast with minor adjustments: the movement of the pair BTC/USD in the range $6,325-$6,900. At the same time, major players may still attempt to bring down the rate to the level of mining profitability in the region of $6,100, where they are beginning to actively buy coins.
A provocation similar to the one that happened on October 15, is unlikely in the near future.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. When giving the forecast, we assumed that none of the events noted in the economic calendar would be able to considerably shake the market. And we were right: the market reacted rather sluggishly even to the ECB chair Mario Draghi 's statements and to the US GDP data, which turned out to be 0.2% higher than expected.
Our second forecast for the past week was the growth of the dollar, which had been supported by 70% of the experts. And it did strengthen against the euro by about 200 points. The EUR/USD pair was going down neatly, step by step, as if by staircase, for the whole week, until it reached the level of 1.1335. After that, the euro won back 65 points, and the pair completed the week in the 1.1400 zone;

- GBP/USD. Recall that more than 90% of experts, supported by the absolute majority of indicators, had expected a further fall of the British currency. The forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and the pound lost about 300 points. The pair’s chart practically repeats the EUR/USD chart: a decline accompanied by regular corrections until the very end of the week, when the pair stopped at 1.2825;

- USD/JPY. If when giving the forecasts for the European currencies, the experts had expected the dollar to rise, here their opinion was just the opposite: the yen should have strengthened, albeit slightly, against the backdrop of the US-Chinese trade wars. The immediate targets were named as the levels of 112.00 and 111.65. They were alternately reached by the pair, it groped the bottom at 111.37 and ended the week in the 111.88 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. As we had predicted, having calmed down after the fake news input on Monday, October 15, the market moved to the consolidation phase. The ripple demonstrated the highest volatility (about 8%). A At the same time, the bitcoin, the litecoin and the ethereum behaved even quieter than many conventional currency pairs and equity. The BTC/USD, for example, stayed in a very narrow corridor of $6,460-6,655, even despite another hacking of another crypto exchange.
We are talking about the attack of the North Korean Lazarus hacker group at the Swiss exchange Trade.io. In general, according to the CipherTrace, the number of crypto thefts in 2018 increased by 3.5 times if compared with the previous year, and the total amount of stolen funds is rapidly approaching a round figure of 1 billion US dollars. Moreover, about 60% of thefts were carried out by North Korean hackers.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The majority of analysts are still waiting for further strengthening of the dollar. Although, this majority is small, 55% vs. 45%.
There will be a lot of various economic events next week, among which we would note two events. The first one is publishing of the Eurozone GDP data for the 3rd quarter on Tuesday, October 30. If it turns out to be no worse or at least the same as in the 2nd quarter, this can play in favor of the euro.
As for the dollar, the data on the labor market (including NFP), which will be released on Friday, November 2, may side with it.
At the time of writing this forecast, the vast majority of trend indicators and oscillators are colored red. However, 10% of the oscillators are already giving signals that the pair is oversold on D1, which is a precursor to a possible strong correction, as a result of which, according to the indications of graphical analysis, the pair can rise to the level of 1.1450 or another 80 points higher, to the level of 1.1530, and then continue to fall.
The goal of the bears is the year's low of 1.1300, which was fixed on August 15. The pair is unlikely to go below this mark before the mid-term elections in the US on November 6 and the Fed meeting on November 8. Although one cannot exclude any attempts to break through this support;

- GBP/USD. The pound has already reached the September lows in its fall, the next goal is the 2018 lowest point, 1.2660. And 70% of experts do not see serious obstacles to achieve it.
The Brexit problems have not disappeared, the country's economy is lame, and the threat of Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation has been added to all this. As a result, the British pound is quickly losing its attractiveness to investors and is moving from being from a refugee currency into the category of risky assets.
However, 30% of analysts are still hoping for a rebound upwards, amid this bleak picture. This can be facilitated by the fixing by major players of the monthly profit on the dollar, as well as by the positive news following the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, November 01. As a result of the rebound, the pair may return to the zone 1.3045-1.3255. The nearest resistance is 1.2930.
The indicators' readings for the pair almost 100% repeat the readings for the euro/dollar pair: almost all of them are colored red, and only 10% of the oscillators signal that the pound is oversold.
A compromise version is offered by the graphical analysis, according to which the pair may move in the side channel 1.2800-1.2930 for a few days;


- USD/JPY. By Friday, October 26 evening, the pair stopped its fall and, having turned, was able to break through the strong support/resistance level of 111.80. Most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis, believe that this is a clear signal to the next strengthening of the dollar and the rise of the pair to at least 112.85. The following goals are 113.35 and 114.55.
The remaining 30% of analysts vote for the alternative scenario. They hope that the Bank of Japan meeting, and the speech of its head Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday October 31 will be able to support the Japanese currency and help it reach values in the 110.75-111.40 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. The number of Google searches for the reference cryptocurrency has decreased by 93% in the ten months of this year. The total capitalization of the crypto market has been fluctuating around $200 billion for more than two months, which indicates a decline in investor interest in both the bitcoin and the market as a whole.
The market can only be revived by the appearance of really important news. Otherwise, the BTC/USD pair will continue to move in a narrow range of $6,325-6,660 with a predominance of the bearish sentiment. The next resistance is 6,780, and the support, as before, is in the mining profitability zone of $6,100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that most experts (55% vs. 45%) voted for further strengthening of the dollar, calling the year's low of 1.1300 recorded on August 15 as the goal. This forecast came completely true, and the pair touched the bottom at this point on the last day of October, which was also facilitated by the optimism of the US President regarding the negotiations with China. True, in contrast to D. Trump, Larry Fink, head of one of the largest BlackRock investment funds, said he expected a full-scale trade war with China in the coming weeks.
The joy of the bulls was short-lived. The market met November with growing thirst for risky investments, which was supplemented by news of progress in the Brexit negotiations. As a result, the pair flew up to the height of 1.1455, after which everyone froze in anticipation of data on the American labor market, which, as we expected, somewhat strengthened the dollar. Thus, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) more than doubled (from 118K to 250K), which allowed the dollar to win back about 65 points. As a result, the pair completed the week in the same place where it began, in the zone 1.1390;

- GBP/USD. As the experts expected, the British currency fell in the first half of the week, trying to reach the 2018 low, 1.2660. However, n the November start was turning for this pair as well. On the background of the news on possible signing of an agreement with the EU on Brexit soon, the pound showed an impressive growth, soaring by 340 points. The pair finished the week at 1.2960, in the zone which can be conditionally defined as the Pivot Point of the last three months;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair was also absolutely accurate. Recall that the majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis, voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair. The heights of 112.85 and 113.35 were named as targets. And It all happened. On Tuesday, the pair reached the resistance of 112.85, broke through it and fixed the weekly high at 113.38. After that, there was a retreat to the level of 112.55, and the last chord of the week sounded at the level of 113.20;

- Cryptocurrencies. Our forecast said that in the absence of really important news, the BTC/USD will continue to move in the narrow range of $6,325-6,660 with a predominance of the bearish sentiment. The next support was around $6,100. This scenario was realized with a small tolerance: pushing off from the resistance of 6.550, the pair went to the lower border of the lateral channel 6.320. The bears managed to break through it in the middle of the week, and the bitcoin dropped to the horizon of 6,240, but quickly turned around and climbed to the center of the side channel in the 6.425 zone. This confirmed the assumption that, knocking the rate down to the mining profitability level, the major players are beginning to actively buy coins, as a result of which the quotes are quickly returning to the initial level.
The bitcoin’s fate was repeated by most of the top altcoins: many coins, such as Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTH/USD), finished the week with a slight, barely noticeable, decrease, while others, like Ripple (XRP/USD), ended the week with a zero result.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We await two major events that can dramatically affect the fate of all dollar pairs this week. These are the mid-term elections in the USA on November 6 and the Fed's decision on the interest rate on November 8, followed, as usual, by the comment of the head of the Federal Reserve. One can also add to this the falling oil prices, quite unexpected statements by the US President and optimism about the agreement on British withdrawal from the EU, which has a positive effect on quotes not only for the pound, but also for the euro.
On this motley background, most experts (60%), supported by graphical analysis, sided with the European currency, waiting for the pair to rise to the zone 1.1480-1.1525. The nearest resistance is 1.1445.
The opposite point of view is supported by 40% of analysts and the overwhelming number of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. The bears' supporters talk about weak economic indicators of the Eurozone, problems of Italy and expect that the pair will again test the support of 1.1300, and, in case of its breakthrough, will sink to the horizon of 1.1210. The next target is at 1.1100;


- GBP/USD. In addition to advancing Brexit negotiations, last week's pound growth was supported by the statement from Bank of England CEO Mark Carney that the regulator is ready to raise the interest rate in any event, including even the “complicated Brexit”. This is about raising the rate to 1.5% within three years (previously 1% was mentioned).
However, the positive effect of Carney’s promises was short-lived, and 50% of experts expect the British currency to weaken already this week. In their opinion, the pair should strive again to the low of October 30 in the zone of 1.2700, and then even lower, to the minimum value of August, 1.2660.
An alternative point of view is expressed by 40% of experts. Supported by graphical analysis and almost 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4, they have voted for ongoing growth of the pair at least to the height of 1.3100. The next target is 1.3220.
Finally, the remaining 10% of the experts, together with the indicators on D1, have taken a neutral position, waiting for the sideways movement of the pair, basing on the support of 1.2820;

- USD/JPY. On Monday, November 5, a meeting of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of Japan and a speech by the head of Bank Kuroda will take place. However, {1the market doesn't expect any surprises from either of these events. The bulls have a slight advantage (55% vs. 45%) among experts. The overwhelming majority of oscillators and trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are also colored green, although 10% of oscillators on D1 are already giving signals that the pair is overbought. The support levels are 112.55, 111.80 and 110.75, the resistance levels are 114.05 114.55;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the fact that the price of the bitcoin and of other top coins has been fluctuating in a fairly narrow range for a long time, it’s too early to say that this market has died. And although the total capitalization is still close to $200 billion, the daily trading volume remains quite impressive, about $4.2 billion. And the number of transactions (250 thousand per day) shows that traders are in no hurry to part with their digital assets.
Of course, there has been no influx of new large investors for a long time, but in the future, we can expect a growth of the quotes. It is expected that such large companies as ICE (the parent company of the NYSE) and Fidelity Investment will launch their trade crypto platforms by the end of the year, which will undoubtedly contribute to an increase in the investment flow. The specialists of such a respected bank as Morgan Stanley are rather optimistic about the future of the crypto market, they have published a relevant research.
In the meantime, on a relatively neutral news background, the forecast remains almost unchanged: the BTC/USD will continue to move in a narrow range of $6,200-6,660 with a predominance of the bearish sentiment. The next resistance is $6,780, the next support is around $6,100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that, when giving the last week's forecast, 60% of experts had expected the euro to grow to the zone 1.1480-1.1525, and turned out to be 100% right: by Wednesday November 7, the pair had risen to the height of 1.1500.
The remaining 40% of analysts had suggested that the pair would still go down and re-test support for 1.1300 against the background of weak economic indicators of the Eurozone and problems with the Italian budget. This script has also been implemented. On Thursday, November 8, the euro began to decline after the report of the European Commission, which lowered its GDP forecast for 2019 from 2.0% to 1.9%. A further fall in the euro and a strengthening of the dollar was facilitated by a press release from the US Federal Reserve, which showed that the US currency was expecting another increase in the interest rate until the end of 2018.
As a result, the dollar has won back 175 points from the euro, groping for a local bottom at the level of 1.1325, followed by a slight rebound, and as a result, the pair froze at 1.1335;

- GBP/USD. The situation with the British pound was similar to the euro last week. Supported by graphical analysis and almost 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4, 40% of experts had voted for the continuation of the pair’s growth to 1.3100-1.3220, and on November 7, the pair reached the height of 1.3173. This was followed by a reversal, and, as the bears' supporters had proposed, the pair rushed down to reach the support at the level of 1.2955 on Friday, pushed by the US Federal Reserve comments. It met the end of the weekly session in the zone 1.2970;

- USD/JPY. The dollar strengthened towards the Japanese currency as well. However, the pair did not manage to overcome the key resistance level of 1.1400, and finally finished the week at 113.80, demonstrating a weekly gain of only 60 points;

- Cryptocurrencies. It turns out that the mid-term elections held in the US can be viewed not only as a struggle of Republicans and Democrats, but also as a fight between supporters and opponents of cryptocurrencies. And, judging by the comments, the blockchain supporters won in a number of states. The positive background is complemented by the information that the major American digital companies are actively and successfully creating lobbies to promote their interests in the Senate, Congress and the US government.
As for the negative news one can mention the appeal of the South Korean Bar Association to the government to regulate the crypto-market, as well as accusations from the US Securities Commission (SEC) against the founder of the EtherDelta cryptocurrency exchange Zachary Coburn in illegal activities.
As for the top virtual currencies, as we predicted, most of them reacted calmly to all these pieces of news. Thus, the bitcoin has not only stayed within the specified range of $6,200-6,660, but also narrowed its scope to $6,320-6,610. The altcoins, following the reference cryptocurrency, showed a moderate increase over the week: the Ethereum (ETH/USD) went up 4%, the Litecoin (LTH/USD) 0.5%, the Ripple (XRP/USD) - 8%. The most impressive dynamics was demonstrated by the BCH/USD: the Bitcoin Cash quotes rose from $425 to $570 from the beginning of the month to the evening of November 9, that is, by 34%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. According to 70% of experts, the Fed's statement will still have some time to influence the strengthening of the dollar. That is why they believe that the pair will not only be able to drop to the year's low of 1.1300, but, in case the economic statistics of the Eurozone are weak and there is positive news from the USA, it will break through this support and reach values in the area of 1.1200-1.1250. Both graphical analysis on H4, and the vast majority of oscillators as well as trend indicators agree with this forecast. However, about 20% of the oscillators on H4 already give signals the pair is oversold, which may be a precursor for a close correction.
30% of analysts also expect a trend reversal up. In their opinion, the dollar is now overvalued, and we can expect the pair to return to the zone 1.1435-1.1525.
This week one should, first of all, pay attention to the data on GDP in the Eurozone and on the inflation in the United States, which will be released on Wednesday, November 14 and Thursday, November 15, and on inflation in the Eurozone on Friday November 16;


- GBP/USD. Important macroeconomic data is expected next week from the UK. The data on the labor market will be made public on Tuesday, November 13, and the next day data on consumer price inflation will be published, which, according to forecasts, may increase by 0.1%. And the higher its performance, the more likely it is that the interest rate on the British pound will rise.
However, at the moment the majority of analysts (65%), along with graphical analysis on H4 and 90% of indicators, are pessimistic, predicting the “Briton” a further fall. The nearest target is 1.2850, the next one is 1.2810.
An alternative point of view is represented by 40% of experts and 10% of oscillators, signaling the pair is oversold. The targets for growth are 1.3150, 1.3175 and 1.3235. The nearest resistance is 1.3040;

- USD/JPY. The strong dollar has raised the pair to the horizon of 114.00. The expectations of a rise in interest rates by the Bank of Japan are almost close to zero, so 55% of experts, as well as about 60% of indicators on H4 and D1, support bullish sentiment, expecting the pair to continue to grow to resistance levels of 114.55 and 115.40.
At the same time, there is a divergence between the indications of a number of oscillators and the quotes of the pair. In addition, we must bear in mind that the height of 114.55 is the high of 2018, which can be a serious barrier to the further growth of the pair. Therefore, 45% of analysts , together with 40% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, expect that the pair will be able to return to the support of 113.10 in the near future, and then to the level of 111.75. And as for the medium-term forecast, more than 60% of experts already side with the bears;

- Cryptocurrencies. Quotes of these pairs are still largely determined by the news. But as mentioned above, cryptocurrencies have already developed a fairly strong immunity against the news. Therefore, we should not expect strong jumps in the bitcoin market value yet.
The actions of a number of regulators, such as the SEC, will deter the growth. The CoinDesk website has reported that the fines imposed on Zachary Coburn are only the first signs, further sanctions against a number of crypto exchanges may follow. The vice-premier of Thailand is also thinking of bringing order to the virtual market, as reported by the Bangkok Post.
On the other hand, no major players are interested in the collapse of the main cryptocurrency, and the lower limit of volatility is still determined by the mining profitability level. When it is reached, the active buying up of coins begins, and the quotes are going up.
Therefore, the forecast remains almost unchanged for the second month: the BTC/USD will continue to move in a narrow range of $6,200-6,660. The next resistance is $6,780, the next support is around $6,100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair said that it would not only be able to fall to the year's low at the level of 1.1300 but would also probably break through this support and reach values in the area of 1.1200-1.1250. That was exactly what happened: the pair recorded the week's low on Monday, November 12, dropping to the level of 1.1215.
Then the market started to be ruled by Brexit. The news that the terms for the Great Britain exit of from the EU were finally agreed, pushed the European currency up, and by the end of Friday the pair had risen 200 points, ending the week session at 1.1415;

- GBP/USD. The British currency first began to grow on the positive news about Brexit, and even reached a height of 1.3070 on Wednesday. But then came the news of the resignation of a number of key ministers of the British government, who disagreed with the EU exit terms. The situation was aggravated by the rumors of a possible impeachment threatening the country's prime-minister, Teresa May. As a result, the pound sterling literally fell down in a matter of hours dropping to the level of 1.2722. Then the situation calmed down a bit, and the pair rose to the zone of 1.2830, showing a week's volatility of 350 points;

- USD/JPY. The divergence between the readings of the oscillators and the pair's quotes indicated the possibility of a downward trend. This scenario had also been supported by 45% of analysts, together with 40% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4. As a result, when there were only 35 points left to the 2018 high, the pair turned south, easily overcame the support at 113.10 and finished the five-day period at 112.82;

- Cryptocurrencies. What can one say? The market has collapsed. And it has done so to an extent that no one expected. Starting from Wednesday, it lost about 12% in capitalization, falling to $185 billion. We had called $6,100 as the lower limit of Bitcoin's fall last week. In reality, things turned out to be much worse: $5,430.
There is no unity among the experts when determining the cause of what had happened. The most popular version is the destabilizing effect of a hard fork (separation) of BCH (Bitcoin Cash) to two new coins, which frightened investors for further splitting the market. Although there is another version, no less viable, it is the massive triggering of stop losses when Bitcoin passed the $6,000-6,100 zone. Another reason is the sale off of US technology companies shares, which spread to the crypto market.
Ethereum (the ETH/USD pair) failed to break through the support of $170, followed by a rebound to the level of $185. Ripple (XRP/USD) briefly approached the horizon of 0.4140, and litecoin (LTH/USD) came close to 40.00, after which the market calmed down a bit, and these pairs played back about 8%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The pair reached the upper limit of the downward channel, which began almost two months ago, on September 24 this year. And despite the fact that both trend indicators and oscillators on D1 took a neutral position, about 70% of experts predict the pair to bounce from this border and to further go down. The nearest support is at 1.1300, the next one is 85 points lower, at the level of 2018 low, 1.1215.
An alternative scenario assumes the rise of the pair to the level 1.1450-1.1550. However, this is likely to be a temporary correction, after which the dollar will continue to grow and the pair will fall. The market is almost certain that in December the US Federal Reserve will raise the interest rate, after which there will be several more increases in 2019, which is a decisive factor for the further strengthening of the US currency;


- GBP/USD. The future of this pair depends on the situation with Brexit. And the forecasts for the British currency are not the most comforting, despite the fact that the pound managed to play back its losses a little at the end of last week. A meeting of EU leaders on an agreement with the UK will be convened on November 25. But it is obvious that this week the pound will continue to be under pressure due to disagreements in the British government and to an unclear reaction of the British Parliament to what is happening. Taking these factors into consideration, 70% of analysts expect the pair to fall. The nearest support is in the 1.2700 zone, the next one is the 2018 low. at the level of 1.2660.
As for the further movement of the pair, according to 55% of experts, it will move in the side channel in the range of 1.2660-1.3200 with Pivot Point in the area of 1.2950 until the end of the year;

- USD/JPY. Concerning the future of this pair, the opinions of experts, as has often been the case lately, have split almost equally: 45% voted for the pair’s growth, 45% - for its fall, and 10% took a neutral position.
As for the indicators, the vast majority is colored red. However, almost 15% of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold, which may indicate its upward correction.
As for the graphical analysis, it points to the growth to the level of 113.10 and the subsequent fall to the level of 111.85 on H4, and on D1 - a lateral movement in the channel 112.65-114.20;

- Cryptocurrencies. At the moment there are two versions of the forecast: a neutral one and ... a very bad one.
The neutral forecast is most likely, when the market takes time out, trying to comprehend what happened last week and what consequences this may have. In this case, the top pairs will fluctuate in the range between the lows of the previous week and the highs of Friday, November 16.
The worst (from the bulls' point of view) scenario assumes that Bitcoin will move to the level of $5,000, after the breakdown of which, most likely, massive panic sales will begin, not only of the reference cryptocurrency, but also of most altcoins. In this case, it is possible that after some time we will see the bitcoin quotes around the support of $3,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. If you look at the chart of the pair, it is clear that by the evening of Friday, November 23, it returned to the values of Friday morning, November 16. That is, the result of the week is close to zero, and the victory for the most accurate forecast can be awarded to trend indicators and oscillators on D1, which had taken a neutral position.
As for the experts, a third of them had predicted the continuation of the pair’s correction up to the level of 1.1450-1.1550 (actual maximum of the week is 1.1470), with the subsequent return of the dollar to growth. This actually did happen, as a result, the pair ended the week at 1.1330;

- GBP/USD. The result of last week for this pair is similar to the result of EUR/USD, that is, close to zero. On Thursday, when it became known that the European Commission had approved the political declaration on Brexit, it seemed that the pound had a chance to reverse the negative situation. It soared 150 points to the height of 1.2925. But the joy of the British currency holders was short-lived, and the pair met the end of the five-day period in the 1.2810 zone;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the opinions of experts had been divided almost equally: 45% had voted for the pair to fall, 45% had voted for its growth, and 10% had taken a neutral position. And they all turned out to be right: the pair was falling in the first half of the week, then it was growing, and it showed a zero result by the end of the session, returning to Pivot Point in the 112.90 zone. As for the support/resistance levels, graphical analysis was most accurate here: it marked the upper limit of the channel at 113.10 on H4 (the pair rose to 113.14), and a fall to 112.65 on D1 (the weekly minimum was fixed at 112.30);

- As for cryptocurrencies, there were two versions of the forecast, a neutral one and ... a very bad one. Naturally, the second one came true. Panic moods from the hard forks (division) of BCH (Bitcoin Cash) to two new coins continued to put pressure on the market. As a result, the bitcoin flew further down, reaching the values of September last year in the $4,210-4,250 zone, and pulled other cryptocurrencies with it: the TOP-5 index lost more than 500 points, or about 25% during the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The most important event that can seriously affect the quotes of both the euro, and the British pound, will be the extraordinary Summit of European leaders on Brexit, which will be held November 25-26. In case its results are positive, the pair may return to November highs of 1.1470 and 1.1500. However, less than half of the experts agree with this scenario, 40%.
As for the remaining 60%, they continue to insist the dollar will strengthen. On Wednesday, November 28, the market is expecting data on the US GDP for the 3rd quarter, and if they turn out to be better than in the 2nd quarter, this will give the American currency a strong support. You should also pay attention to the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday, November 29, although no special surprises are expected from it.
The targets for the bears are 1.1300 and the 2018 low of 1.1215, in the case of a breakdown of which the path to support 1.1120 is opened.
If we talk about indicators, about 15% of the oscillators on H4 indicate that the pair is oversold, which may portend a short-term correction;

- GBP/USD. Almost 100% of the indicators are painted red. But future trends are not determined by them at all. The decisions of the EU Brexit Summit are, of course, very important for the pound. But it faces an even more serious test: the deal on the terms for the British exit from the European Union has yet to be approved by the British Parliament. And there are many chances that the parliamentarians will vote against the deal. In this case, a second vote will be required, which may be scheduled for February, and up to this point investors will be wary of the pound.
In the meantime, expert opinions are equally divided: half of them are for the growth of the pair, half are for its fall. The nearest support levels are 1.2720 1.2695, 1.2660, the resistance levels are 1.2885, 1.2925 and 1.3025;

- USD/JPY. The Japanese currency often goes counter-trend to its European counterparts: when the euro and the pound fall against the dollar, the yen rises. It is this perspective that is drawn by analysts for the next week. 55% of them, supported by 90% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators, vote for the fall of the pair first to support 112.60, and then 30 points lower. It is possible that the pair will be able to successfully test the level of 112.00.
The alternative scenario is supported by 45% of experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 10% of oscillators, signaling the pair is oversold. The targets of the bulls are zones 113.15-113.40 and 114.20-114.55.


- Cryptocurrencies. Most likely, the negative trend in the market will continue, and the bitcoin will try to break through the level of $4,000. The next target is 1,000 points lower. Another vulnerability was found in smart contracts based on ethereum, and the ETH/USD pair may fall to the most important psychological level of $100. The target for the litecoin (LTC/USD) is to consolidate below $30, and for the ripple (XRP/USD) - below $0.40.
As for the good news for crypto bulls, there is divergence between the quotes of Bitcoin and the readings of many oscillators, which indicates a possible upward correction. However, according to most experts, this correction will be short-term.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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More information about the investment offers of NordFX can be found at company site or by contacting the company's Support Service.

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The first good news that pushed the euro up, as expected, was the extraordinary Summit of European leaders on Brexit. Its positive results allowed the European currency to rise to the level of 1.1383 on Monday, November 26, after which the power over the market was seized by the dollar once again.
By Wednesday, the pair began to approach the 2018 low and fell to the level of 1.1255, but then the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, speaking at the New York Economic Club, suddenly declared that the interest rates on the dollar were only slightly below the neutral level!
Back in October, the same person had said that the rate was far enough from this level, and a month later, it was almost at the “zero” level, at which the economy neither accelerates nor slows down. Such a speech alerted the market a little, as a result of which the Euro-bulls were able to push the pair up again: this time to the height of 1.1400. But then not so much positive statistics on the Eurozone economy were published, and the pair went down again. As a result, the total of the week can be characterized by the short word “zero”: the pair completed it almost in the same place where it started;

- GBP/USD. The intra weekly trends of this pair are similar to those demonstrated by the EUR/USD pair. But the distrust in the pound, caused by the fears that the British Parliament may not approve the agreement on Brexit, played a role. As a result, the finish of the pair was slightly lower than the start level and, if at the beginning of the week the pound was at around 1.2810, it finished the week at the level of 1.2750;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the opinions of experts were almost equally divided. A small margin (55%) was on the side of the bears, but when summing up the week it becomes obvious that the bulls won a victory, albeit a very small one. The pair was able to rise by about 60 points during the week, having frozen at around 113.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for this market was negative, and it was 100% justified: over 80% of all coins, followed the bitcoin, having gone into a deep minus. The intrigue was only in how low the reference cryptocurrency would be able to fall together with other coins during that week.
Our forecast said that the BTC/USD pair was likely to break through the level of $4,000. And it indeed dropped to $3,660, returning to $4,000 on Friday. Ethereum (ETH/USD) was seen at the horizon $102.6. The litecoin (LTC/USD) fell to $24.2 at some exchanges, and the ripple (XRP/USD) below $0.33.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If you look at the graph, it is clear that in November the pair drew a “pennant” striving to consolidate around 1.1315-1.1350. As for its further movement, most experts (60%) and more than 90% of the indicators on H4 on D1 expect further strengthening of the dollar and new testing of the 2018 low, 1.1215.
In addition to the results of the G20 summit, the next statements of the Federal Reserve Head J. Powell on Wednesday, December 05 and Friday, December 7, as well as the publication of regular data on the US labor market at the very end of the week may affect the formation of trends. According to forecasts, NFP may fall by 15-20% compared to the previous value, which may somewhat weaken the US currency. And here it should be noted that in the monthly forecast, 60% of analysts are already siding with the bulls, waiting for the pair to return to the zone 1.1400-1.1500;


- GBP/USD. The pair is near the year lows zone at the moment, 1.2670-1.2695, and graphical analysis on H4, supported by more than 90% of trend indicators and oscillators, predicts their breakdown and a quick fall to the 1.2600-1.2620 zone.
But the experts' opinion is not at all as clear: it is only 55% who side with the bears. And 45% are confident that the pair will not be able to renew the lows, and it will go north towards the height of 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. Although we would like to give a clear forecast, there are no pronounced preferences among experts for the Japanese currency either: exactly half of them have voted for the pair's growth, and exactly half are for its fall. Everyone is waiting for the results of the G20, and here the forecasts are also quite ambiguous.
The indicators also behave accordingly, although most of them are colored green. As for the graphical analysis, it envisages first the growth of the pair to the level of 114.20-114.40, and then its fall, first to the support of 113.00, and then to 111.75.
In a situation of such uncertainty, it is always useful to refer to a longer-term forecast. And here, 65% of analysts, following the graphical analysis, expect the yen to strengthen and the pair to fall to 112.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. The situation with forecasts for cryptocurrencies is complicated by the fact that it is almost impossible to estimate their real value. They are so virtual that estimates can be differ tens, hundreds or even thousands of times. It is not particularly worth it to focus on the miners' costs either, as they do not do any useful work and do not produce any material values or benefits. They only spend their time, money and electricity.
Experts' forecasts look as follows at the moment: 60% expect the bitcoin to continue falling to $3,000, 30% hope that it will stay in the $4,000-4,500 range, and 10% of super optimists convince the rest that these are all the machinations of major players who, having bought cheap coins, will soon begin to push the market up.
However, optimism is quickly melting, if you listen to the words of the Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huan. The head of the largest manufacturer of processors for mining has admitted that they had misjudged the prospects of the crypto market, and now his company is betting on the GPU for computing using artificial intelligence and use in unmanned vehicles.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Our forecast for relatively weak labor market data turned out to be 100% correct. ADP and ISM in the service sector were not pleasing either, and one of the key indicators, NonFarm Payrolls, fell from 237K to 155K, that is, by as much as 35%.
The forecast regarding consolidation of the pair in the area of 1.1350 turned out to be correct as well: last week it switched to lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415 with Pivot Point in the area 1.1350-1.1360.
The difference between the weekly high and low barely exceeded 100 points, although it seemed that there were quite a lot of important events during these days. These are the above-mentioned statistics on the US labor market, supplemented by a decrease in the country's GDP, and the OPEC meeting and Iran’s petroleum statement, and the arrest by the US law enforcement agencies of the financial director of Huawei Meng Wanzhou... But the pair reacted quite calmly to all this. The reason for this seems to be only one: the approach of Christmas, the time when the sharks of the market sum up their annual results and no longer want to make any sudden movements;

- GBP/USD. This pair also behaved quite calmly, although with a slightly higher volatility: the swing of oscillations was about 180 points. The expected fall to 1.2600-1.2620 did not take place, and the pair, barely reaching 1.2655, turned around and left for Pivot Point of the week, ending the five-day period at 1.2725;

- USD/JPY. Last week, expert opinions were equally divided: one half voted for the pair’s growth, the second one was for its fall. In this situation, we advised to move from weekly to longer-term forecast, and we were right. Here, the picture was already different: most analysts (65%), supported by graphical analysis, expected the yen to strengthen and the pair to decline to the 112.00 zone. This was what happened: having won back the losses of the previous two weeks, it reached the level of 112.20. The pair met the end of the trading session at the level of 112. 70, that is, in the same place where it was already trading in the middle of November;

- Cryptocurrencies. There’s really nothing to say: the graphs vividly confirm that the worst predictions are coming true. 60% of experts predicted a further drop in Bitcoin, and on Friday evening, it recorded another annual low at around $3,275, having lost another 16% in seven days. Following the “reference” (now in quotes) cryptocurrency, the altcoins fell further down. Ethereum (ETH/USD) fell by 24% during the week, Litecoin (LTC/USD) - by 26%, and Ripple (XRP / USD) - by 18%.
According to Ernst & Young, 86% of all coins are now trading significantly lower than the originally declared value, and the crypto market capitalization fell to $113 billion, having lost exactly 700 billion in 11 months (86%).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As has already been mentioned, it is time for the market to record annual profits. Or losses (it depends). However, the coming week is expected to see a number of macroeconomic data, which may still affect the change in quotations.
Thus, on Wednesday, December 12, there will be data on inflation in the United States, and the higher it turns out, the higher the likelihood of interest rate increases, the better the dollar will feel. In the meantime, judging by the futures, players and investors do not particularly expect that the Fed will raise rates in March next year.
On Thursday, December 13, a decision is expected on the interest rate in the Eurozone. Most likely, nothing will change, and the rate will remain at zero, so more attention should be paid to the subsequent press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi.
On Friday, we expect statistics on retail sales in the United States. And, of course, the market will closely watch the reports from the theater of operations of the American-Chinese trade war throughout the whole week. Another aggravation in this conflict was caused by the arrest of Huawei's CFO, and everyone is waiting to see what President Trump does in this situation.
In the meantime, the overwhelming majority of experts and indicators have taken a neutral position. The bulls have a very small advantage, calling the area 1.1500-1.1550 as their target. Supports are at levels 1.1265 and 1.1215. The basic forecast almost repeats the scenario of the past week: the movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415;

- GBP/USD. Here, analysts' forecast is similar to what has been given for EUR/USD: the advantage of the bulls is only 5%. But almost 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators are colored red. The formation of trends may be affected by the data on the UK GDP, which will be released on Monday December 10, and the data on average wages on Tuesday December 11. But of interest is the vote on Brexit in the British Parliament, which will take place at the same time, on Tuesday. Recall that, according to forecasts, the parliamentarians may not approve the Agreement on the terms for leaving the EU, and then a second vote will be scheduled for February 2019, which will play against the pound. The support levels are 1.2660, 1.2540 and 1.2500, the resistance levels are 1.2810, 1.2850, 1.29250;

- USD/JPY. On Monday, December 10, statistics on Japan’s GDP will be published and, strictly speaking, these are the only data from the country of the Rising Sun that may affect the pair’s quotes. Investors pay much more attention to the trade war between China and the United States and the use of the yen as a safe haven currency. That is why most experts (65%), with the support of trend indicators, vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency and the reduction of the pair to at least 112.20 support. The next support is on horizon 111.75, then 110.85. As for the resistances, they are in the zones 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00.
Graphical analysis also indicates a fall of the pair. However, on H4 it assumes that at first it will rise to the height of 113.10, only then it will turn to the south.


- Cryptocurrencies. The states increasingly clamp the market which had initially been decentralized, in the grip of regulation, which creates an additional negative news background. This is what the crypto community is expecting soon:
In South Korea, a tax on income from operations with cryptocurrency is planned to be introduced; in Japan, in addition to the state registration of all ICOs, crypto exchanges will be obliged, upon request of the tax authorities, to disclose information on customer incomes; in Singapore, all ICO market participants must now obtain a license and take measures to combat money laundering; Switzerland is also planning a number of legislative amendments. And so on.
It is highly likely that, recognizing the benefits and possibilities of blockchain, many states intend to put an end to the current crypto freedom and begin to issue their own digital money (which Honduras and Iran have already taken up). But this is not a one-day deal.
In the meantime, analysts' opinions are distributed as follows: 65% expect a further fall to $2,500-3,000, 25% have voted for the side trend along the $3,000 horizon and 10%, as before, remain optimistic, expecting Bitcoin to return to the levels of $4,000-5,000 in the medium term.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

At the end of November 2018, a specialized Forex exhibition organized by FinExpo was held in the largest city of Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City. It gathered more than a thousand guests and participants. NordFX took part in this large-scale event, presenting at its booth a wide range of products for both traders and investors.




In addition to traditional services for trading on the Forex market, NordFX specialists presented the latest developments for professional exchange trading in cryptocurrencies and crypto indexes using the MetaTrader 4 and 5 platforms, as well as ample opportunities to invest in the company's specialized Investment Funds.
Three of these funds include shares of world industry leaders, including Amazon, Nike, Boeing, Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, MasterCard, Visa, Google, Facebook and many others. In addition to highest reliability and growth prospects, these funds have a low entry threshold, which allows NordFX clients, having even small amounts, to take full advantage of portfolio investments and professional asset management.

In order to familiarize Vietnamese traders with the company's products in more detail, a seminar was held after the expo, where a lot of attention was paid to the RAMM – service, a unique trading signal copying platform that allows you to automatically control the level of acceptable risk.

In addition to these events, a number of meetings were held in Ho Chi Minh City with current and potential IB-partners of NordFX, whose participants were able to get acquainted with the benefits of a two-tier affiliate program, as well as discuss ways to further develop the company.

#nordfx #cryptocurrency #ramm #exchange #broker #funds

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. If the basic forecast for the past week had assumed a lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415, the meeting of the European Central Bank and the subsequent conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi were called as the basic event. The ECB made a long-promised decision on January 1, 2019 to complete the quantitative easing program, and Draghi demotivated investors with a statement of increased risks. Based on this, the forecasts of the region’s economic growth for 2018-19 were lowered, to which the euro responded with a fall, but still remained within the limits of the stated channel.
The key support 1.1300 was broken already on Friday, December 14, when the Bundesbank lowered its forecasts for Germany's GDP and inflation. The regulator now expects that the growth of the economy in the outgoing year will not be 2.0%, as previously assumed, but only 1.5%. As for the 2019, the forecast here was lowered from 1.9% to 1.6%. The gloomy business performance indicators finally disappointed the market, and the pair went down sharply, reaching the local bottom at 1.1270. After that, a small rebound followed, returning it to the level of 1.1300, which turned from support to resistance;

- GBP/USD. Pound is still ruled by Brexit. As expected, the vote in the British Parliament on the terms of a divorce from the EU didn't have a result. It was just canceled. As a result, by Wednesday, December 12, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2474, having lost 285 points compared to the beginning of the week. As for the end of the five-day week, it found itself near the mark of 1.25 85;

- USD/JPY. Last week, 45% of experts voted for the pair's growth, and 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00 were indicated as resistance levels. The truth, as often happens, was in the middle, and the weekly high was noted at the height of 113.70. The final chord of the week sounded at the level of 113.35;

- Cryptocurrencies. The news background in recent days has been quite blurred, and positive news alternated with negative news. Among the events that are encouraging are the possible release of the Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck to the US market, the record for Bitcoin analogue ETF demand in Switzerland, and the news that the embedded Ethereum wallet will appear in the Opera browser. A balance to these was the news that for the first time in history, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States fined the cryptocurrency bank AriseBank because of fraud allegations. The bulls were also frustrated by the news that due to the unfavorable situation in the cryptocurrency market, the mining giant Bitmain is closing its unit in Israel.
Against such a background, Bitcoin was growing and falling, and as a result, on the evening of Friday, December 14, it turned out to be where it had been a week ago, and even updated the low of the entire 2018, falling to the level of $3.225.
As for the basic altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH / USD), Litecoin (LTC / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), they obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency all week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The color here is red. It is almost an unprecedented case: 100% of the oscillators and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 are painted exactly in this color. 70% of experts also vote for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the pair. The reason for this is interest rates.
The likelihood that the Fed will announce a rate increase from 2.25% to 2.5% on Wednesday December 19 is over 75%. In addition, the market is confidently expecting one or two more increases next year. As for the growth of the euro rates, there is a complete uncertainty here. Draghi promised to keep the rate at zero level until the summer of 2019. But this summer rise is a big question. So, most investors are now looking south, to the zone of the year low, which was recorded on November 12, 1.1215. That it is the main goal for the pair. The nearest support is 1.1265;
The alternative scenario is supported by 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1. In the event the developments are according to their scenario, the pair will once again rise above the strong support/resistance level of 1.1300 and can even reach Pivot Point of the three-week side channel of 1.1360. The following targets are 1.1400 and 1.1440;


- GBP/USD. The British currency is facing a lot of events next week. On Wednesday, December 19, a block of inflation data will be published. And even if the inflation grows, the market may consider that such an increase is due to the weakening of the pound because of Brexit. The next day, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, which is likely to remain unchanged, which will also play against the pound. Data on the GDP growth rates on Friday is unlikely to seriously affect the overall dynamics of the British currency. And they are negative.
50% of experts and about 90% of indicators agree with this. According to their forecast, the pair may decline first to the horizon of 1.2475, and then another 75 points lower.
20% of analysts have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 30% have voted for the pair's growth to the zone of 1.2670-1.2700;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the indicators do not give any clear guidelines: their readings are divided almost equally. The same applies to the expert opinions: 45% of them are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for the continuation of growth and 5% just shake their shoulders. Such uncertainty becomes clear if you look at the pair's chart, which is now located approximately in the middle of the six-week side channel 112.30-114.00.
The meeting of the Bank of Japan is unlikely to affect the quotes of the pair, and the only event that could seriously move it up is the already mentioned decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. In this case, according to many analysts, the pair can break through the upper boundary of the channel and reach the zone of 114.55-114.75.
The graphical analysis on D1 has taken a sharply opposite position, which predicts the pair to fall to support 112.20 and then to the level 111.75;

- cryptocurrency. 60% of experts expect Bitcoin to continue the downtrend to the strong zone, fixed in July-August 2018, $2,500-2,700. The nearest support is in the $2,940-2.050 zone. In addition to the overall negative dynamics, the experience of the past year also plays in favor of bears, when at the end of December many wallet owners wanted to transfer their crypto savings to fiat currencies.
On the other hand, when analyzing the futures, one can see a slight increase (about 10%) of bullish positions, which gives grounds for 20% of analysts to talk about the pair going to the side trend, and another 20% to be filled with optimism in anticipation of the trend reversal and the rise of the pair to 4,500.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Despite the fact that, on the eve of the US Federal Reserve interest rate increase, 70% of experts, supported by 100% indicators, expected the dollar to strengthen, nothing of the kind happened. The euro was growing for the whole week, approaching on Thursday the last eight weeks' high at the height of 1.1485.
At the time the rate increase from 2.25% to 2.5% was announced, the dollar managed to win back a modest 85 points, but this victory turned out to be temporary. At his press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that there would hardly be three rates increases in 2019, and that, in a better case, there would be only two. And according to US Secretary of the Treasury Stephen Mnuchin, if inflation remains low, there may be no rate increases next year. But no one expects unity within the team of President Trump and the Fed, or within the Fed either. In 2019, only two FOMC members see the rate at 2.5%, six at 2.75%, four at 3.25%, three at 3.30%, and two members of the Open Market Operations Committee would like it to be 3.6%!
As for the results of the week, after the release on Friday, December 21, of a whole package of data on the US economy, the pair returned to the central zone of the eight-month side channel and stopped at 1.1370;

- GBP/USD. As expected, neither the economic data published on Wednesday nor the decisions of the Bank of England on Thursday presented any surprises. Back on Tuesday, December 18, the pair moved to lateral movement in channel 1.2605-1.2705, where it remained until the end of the week, having met its finish at 1.2630;

- USD/JPY. Last week, the US dollar dropped significantly, not only against the euro. The DXY U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, fell on Thursday to an eight-week low of 95.73. Its fall against the Japanese yen was particularly impressive, the yen won around 260 points against the dollar by Thursday. Experts say that the main reasons for such a jump are sales on the stock markets and the flight of investors to the yen as a safe haven in the face of continuing tensions in trade relations between the United States and China.

- Cryptocurrencies. The past week was marked by a steady growth of both the reference cryptocurrency and all major altcoins. The maximum growth of bitcoin (BTC/USD) was 33%, ethereum (ETH/USD) - 46%, litecoin (LTC/USD) - 45%, ripple (XRP/USD) - 41%. The most impressive increase, by 176%, was demonstrated by the Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD), reaching $220 per coin at the peak. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew from $103 billion to $134 billion, that is, by 30%.
The reasons are both global, such as falling investors' interest in classic assets on world markets, and private ones, such as news on the closing of the short position, which was opened a year ago by a well-known crypto trader Mark Doe. There may be called a lot of reasons, but the main question that worries the whole crypto community is whether this weekly increase is not a short-term correction. Or is it, which is even worse, another trap, arranged by bears for the bulls?
Whatever it may be, but at the end of the week, Bitcoin buyers met strong resistance at $4,300, resulting in this cryptocurrency's fall to $4,000. And other digital assets slipped a little as well, following it.


As for the forecasts, it should be noted an error is quite often not in defining targets, but in determining the timing of their achievement. This is especially true of the coming days. The past week was the last full trading week in the past year. Next week, trading will begin only on Wednesday, December 26, and the world will celebrate the New Year during the night of Monday, December 31, to Tuesday, January 1. That is why this time we decided to discuss experts' opinions not only for the upcoming week, but also for the next month, which we hope will help traders in more accurate determination of trends and benchmarks.

- EUR/USD. The weekly forecast looks like this: 40% are for the fall of the pair, 30% are for its growth and 30% have taken a neutral position. Forecast for January: 60% are for the fall, 20% are for the lateral trend and only 20% are for the strengthening of the European currency. The main targets for bears are 1.1300, 1.1265, then the December low at 1.1215. In the event of a breakthrough of this support, the pair may sink to the horizon of 1.1120 and even lower, down to the level of 1.0910. The main target for the bulls is the zone 1.1525-1.1625, after reaching which the euro will head for the heights of 1.1730 and 1.1815;

- GBP/USD. Here, experts also expect the dollar to strengthen during the month and, as a result, the pair will fall. For this, 60% have voted. Supports are 1.2605, 1.2525, 1.2475 and 1.2345. Resistances are at 1.2725, 1.2840 1.2925 and 1.3050;


- USD/JPY. According to 55% of analysts (weekly forecast) and 65% (monthly forecast), the pair has already approached its local bottom, and now it is waiting for a rebound upwards. The goals are 112.30, 113.15, 113.70 and 114.20. The number of those who have voted for the side trend in this case is small - about 10%. The rest of the experts have given their preference to the bears, believing that the pair is waiting for a further fall. Supports 110.80, 109.85, 109.35 and 108.65;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite their growth last week, the general mood in the crypto market is rather gloomy. More than 70% of analysts and market participants believe the current rise is purely speculative and they expect the downtrend to resume. They are still expecting bitcoin to fall to the strong zone, recorded in July-August 2018, $2,500-2,700. Moreover, such a fall may take from one to two months. The nearest support is in the $2,940-2.050 zone.
The bullish ambitions of the remaining 30% respondents look a bit more modest: they expect the BTC/USD pair to grow only to $4,800-5,200.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

What Happened: Year 2018

As usual, Deutsche Bank experts summed up the year at the end of December. And the results were just fantastic, with a negative connotation. 93% of all assets fell in comparison with January 2018, and this figure was the worst in the last 118 years, surpassing even 1920 with its 84%.
Experts say that the main reason for the recession was “extremely soft monetary policy,” which grew into a monetary tightening. Four US interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve were enough to send most of the markets to a nose dove, which can turn into a prolonged recession. US President Donald Trump openly called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues insane, calling for an end to the rate hike. But, as it turned out, the President could not decree bankers, and on December 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the rate by another 0.25%. Moreover, it turned out that in 2019 only two members of this Committee see a rate of 2.5%, six see it at 2.75%, four at 3.25%, three at 3.30%, and two FOMC members would like it to be 3.6%!
The result is obvious: at the end of the year, everything that could fall, was falling on the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had the worst December since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As Bloomberg calculated, the collapse made 500 world richest people poorer by $ 511 billion, and Facebook founder Zuckerberg suffered the most, his fortune lost $23 billion.

As for the foreign exchange market, the beginning of 2018 was marked by a serious strengthening of the euro against the US dollar. At the peak, on February 16, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.2555. But then the difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, the difficulties with the Brexit agreement, the Italian problems and the slowdown in the Eurozone economy as a whole, played into the dollar, and the pair went down, reaching the bottom at 1.1215 in mid-November.

GBP/USD experienced similar fluctuations. It reached the maximum value of 1.4375 on April 17, and the minimum was recorded on December 12, when the pair fell to 1.2475, losing 1,900 points in eight months.

As for the Japanese yen, investors viewed it mainly as a safe haven in case of acceleration of trade wars between the USA and China. However, since no special changes were observed on this front, the USD/JPY pair met the end of the year near the Pivot Point of the last two years in the 111.00 zone. Thus, compared to the beginning of 2018. the pair lost only about 200 points.


What will Happen: Year 2019

According to a number of analysts, everything that happened in the outgoing year is only the beginning of a common prolonged depression. First of all, the forecast concerns the United States, where the yield on two-year Treasury bonds has already decreased, and the yield on similar ten-year securities has fallen to a seven-month low, which is considered a sign of recession.
The situation in the Eurozone looks somewhat better, despite the fact that the ECB has revised its forecasts for inflation and economic growth downward. The past year has shown that the trade wars unleashed by Trump are not so terrible for the Old World as was previously assumed. However, both the European currency and the British pound continue to be influenced by the problems associated with Brexit.
On the other hand, the end of the 90-day truce between the United States and China will soon come up, which introduces additional uncertainty about the dollar exchange rate.
In the meantime, the forecasts given by strategists from leading world banks and agencies, for the most part, look quite similar.

Blomberg bases its forecast on the positive dynamics of European exports, improved situation in the German automotive industry and accelerated growth of average wages. All this may lead to the normalization of the monetary policy of the Eurozone and the growth of the euro to the level of $1.20 by the end of the year.

Morgan Stanley also expects the year 2019 to be difficult for the dollar and recommends its sale against the euro amid the forecast for inflation in the Eurozone. The immediate target for the EUR/USD pair is in the $1.18 zone.

It should be noted that, for the most part, analysts make very optimistic forecasts for the euro for the next 3-month period. Societe Generale and CIBC Capital Markets point out at the level $1.17, TD Securities forecast is at $1.18, Unicredit at $1.19, and finally, Lloyds Bank has set a record bar of $1.24.

However, there are more cautious views. Thus, Citi experts believe that the European currency has not yet reached its bottom, and by the end of the I quarter of 2019. it may drop to $1.13, and only then it will go up, reaching the mark at $1.18 in the second half of the year. The Barclays Capital expect a fall to $1.12 by March 31, and for ING Group forecasts, the bottom may be at the level of $1.11.

JPMorgan Chase analysts also believe that the US economy will experience a recession in 2019, as Trump's fiscal stimulus will run out, and the Fed’s monetary policy will no longer provide cheap money. Thus, the growth rate of the Eurozone economy will come out ahead, and the euro will start to grow on expectations of higher interest rates from the ECB, but this will happen only in the second half of 2019.
In numbers, the forecast looks like this: falling to $1.11 in the first quarter and rising to $1.18 by the end of the fourth quarter of 2019.

As for the GBP/USD, the JPMorgan Chase forecast assumes the growth of the British currency to $1.30 in the first quarter and to $1.37 by the end of the year, provided that Brexit is quiet (40% probability). In the absence of an Agreement on the terms of leaving the EU, the pound sterling will fall by 10%, and in the case of Brexit cancellation, on the contrary, it will grow by 10%.

Concerning the future, the yen forecast is negative. So, the pair JPY/USD in the first half of 2019. expects growth first to the level of 112 yen per dollar, and then to the values of 2016. at 118.00. Experts explain the possible weakening of the Japanese currency by an increase in foreign investment by Japanese companies and a worsening trade balance. Spreads are also expected to increase on the rates, which will adversely affect the yen rate.

Similar trends are predicted by Citi strategists. In their opinion, the GBP/USD is expected to grow to 1.26-1.30, and JPY/USD - to 113.00-115.00.


John Gordon, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

For starter, a few words about the events of the past week, the first working day of which gave unpleasant surprises, which for some were quite pleasant.

- Not having recovered after the New Year celebration, in the morning of January 2, the pair EUR/USD made a sharp dash to the south, losing almost 200 points in a day. Then, however, everything returned to normal, and the pair quickly returned to Pivot Point 1.1400, around which it has been revolving since October 2018. On Friday, January 5, using positive data from the US labor market, the dollar tried to regain the lost ground, but the attempt failed, and the pair ended the week at 1.1394.

- An even sharper jump from 2018 to 2019 was expecting the GBP/USD, which lost on January 2, due to increased demand for the dollar, more than 400 points. Then, just as in the case of the European currency, the excitement subsided, and the pair returned to the main support/resistance line of the last two months in the 1.2720 area;

- The forecast for the pair USD/JPY suggested the strengthening of the yen as a safe haven currency. But the fact that within only one hour on January 2 it would be able to win back 400 points from the dollar, that is, almost everything it had lost during the whole 2018, was almost impossible to foresee. The cause of the incident was a "festive" lack of liquidity in Japan, which was then eliminated. But the dollar could not fully recover, and the pair ended the trading week at 108.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. Against the background of the major currency pairs Bitcoin demonstrated a remarkable stability last week, keeping on to lateral movement in a narrow corridor of $3,775-4,100 and returned where it has repeatedly been in the last six weeks by Friday evening, to the level of $3,955. Following the example of the reference cryptocurrency, the Olympic calmness was shown by Litecoin (LTC/USD). But Ethereum and Ripple behaved somewhat more actively. Thus, the ETH/USD pair has grown by 12%, rising above the $160 mark, and the XRP/USD pair, on the contrary, lost 7%, although it could not break through the support of $0.3560.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Both trend indicators and oscillators on H4 and D1 have taken a neutral position. The opinions of the experts are divided as follows: 20% have voted for the growth of the pair, 40% are for the sideways trend and 40% are for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pair.
It should be noted that in the transition from the weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the US currency rises to 65%. Graphical analysis on D1 also indicates a possible decrease of the pair to December lows in the 1.1215 zone. The nearest strong support area is 1.1305.
As for the “bullish” scenario, according to its supporters, the dollar will continue to be pressured by political uncertainty in the United States. The nearest strong resistance zone is 1.1485-1.1500, in case of its breakthrough, the next target for the bulls will be consolidation in the zone 1.1550-1.1625.
Among the economic events that could affect the formation of dollar pairs, one should pay attention to the US FOMC protocol, which will be published on Wednesday evening, January 9, the ECB meeting on Thursday, January 10, as well as data on inflation in the United States, which will be released at the very end of the week, on Friday, January 11;

- GBP/USD. Here, of particular interest are the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Mark Kearney on January 9, as well as data on UK GDP, published on January 11. However, in both cases, one should not expect any special surprises, and the uncertainty associated with the British exit from the EU will continue to be decisive for the British pound exchange rate. That is why 65% of experts predict a further fall of the pound. According to them, with the support of graphical analysis on D1, the pair will first test support 1.2615 once again and, if successful, will move to the zone 1.2475-1.2525. It is unlikely to achieve the low of the first week of January in the 1.2400 zone in the upcoming week.
20% of analysts are in favor of the GBP/USD sideways trend, and only 15% have sided with the bulls, suggesting movement of the pair in the corridor 1.2715-1.2835. The next resistance is 1.2925.
At the time of writing the forecast, about 90% of indicators sided with the bulls. However, most likely, this is only a consequence of the upward movement of the pair on January 3-5. Moreover, 10% of the oscillators have already signaled that it is overbought, which indicates a possible reversal of the pair to the south.


- USD/JPY. About half of the indicators are red and half are green. As for the opinions of analysts, 70% of them predict a decline of the pair to the level of 107.00, and then another 100 points lower. So far, only 30% of experts have voted for the growth of the pair, but in the medium term, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar doubles. The main goal for the bulls is to return to the zone 112.25-113.80. The nearest resistance levels are 109.45, 110.25 and 111.15;

- Cryptocurrencies. The behavior of BTC/USD does not give reasons for optimism or pessimism. Therefore, the experts' opinions are divided almost equally: 30% are for the growth of Bitcoin, 30% are for its fall and 40% are for the continuation of the sideways trend. At the same time, the total capitalization of the crypto market is at the level of the end of December last year, around $130 billion, which also does not allow for making any predictions. Although some experts, based on the cyclical nature of the growth and the fall of quotations, argue that the first quarter of 2019 will be on the side of buyers, and expect the pair to rise to $4,800-5,200. The alternative scenario: the end of the correction and the fall of BTC/USD to the strong zone, recorded as early as July-August 2018: $2,500-2,700. Moreover, such a fall may take from one to two months. The nearest support is in the $2,940-3.050 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

The results of the annual voting were published on the website of the International Association of Forex Traders IAFT Awards at the very beginning of the new year 2019. The voting was held for the seventh time, and according to its results a list of the most popular financial market companies in 2018 was formed. More than 200 companies struggled to win, and only 23 of them received the highest award: a victory in a nomination and a title of market leader. Among them is the brokerage company NordFX, which has won in the nomination “Best Broker in Asia” with a large difference.



Two more good pieces of news have been brought by the Market Leader magazine, which has published the results of the Expert Council of the MasterForex-V Academy voting. The administration and professional traders of the Academy evaluate the real results of financial organizations throughout the year, and at the end of the year they sum up the final results. According to the chairman of the contest jury, the rating of MasterForex-V Expo, which is compiled on the basis of two dozen criteria, is an Expo during which the best brokers are objectively presented. And thus in 2018, for the fourth year in a row, NordFX receives the Grand Prix and the title “World Best Broker”.

The company scored most votes on a variety of criteria, including the best dealing quality, the best innovations, the best investment products and funds, and a number of other equally important parameters. Suffice it to say that about 55% of the Academy's traders have opened their trading accounts in NordFX.

The company has received another award from MasterForex-V Expo in the nomination “Best Crypto Broker 2018” for creating unique trading conditions that enable traders to achieve best results when trading in the cryptocurrency market.

We sincerely thank everyone who has given us their votes, and we understand that these awards are not only a proof of the company's success in the past, but also oblige us to make every possible effort to justify your trust in the present and in the future.

#nordfx #cryptocurrency #forex #exchange #broker #funds

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. On Wednesday, January 9, after repeated attempts, the pair managed to break through the upper limit of the mid-term side channel in which it was located, starting from November 2018. Having overcome the resistance in the area of 1.1500, it reached the height of 1.1570, after which the followed by a trend reversal, and the pair once again found itself within the above channel, ending the week at 1.1470.
The weakening of the dollar was influenced by a number of factors: the unplanned “holidays” of the US Government, a very cautious, “pigeon”, speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Economic Club meeting in Washington, where he pronounced the word “patience” five times. But the main factor, according to many experts, was the active strengthening of the Chinese yuan before the expected signing of a trade agreement with the United States;

- GBP/USD . Recall that only 15% of analysts sided with the bulls last week. But they were right. Unclear prospects for the dollar outweighed the concerns associated with Brexit. The pound was supported by positive UK GDP data released on Friday, January 11th. As a result, the pair rose by almost 150 points, reaching the height of 1.2865, after which a slight rebound followed, and the quotes dropped to the zone of 1.2840;

- USD/JPY. After the “New Year storm,” caused by the lack of liquidity, the Japanese currency is complete calm, moving in a fairly narrow side corridor within 107.75-109.10. The pair met the end of the week in the same place where it started , near the Pivot Point 108.50. The reason for this is the emerging balance between the attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven currency and the growing interest in other currencies that can bring grat profits if a trade deal is concluded between the US and China;

- Cryptocurrencies. Our review is fundamentally different from other reviews in that it is not an opinion of one particular analyst. In our analysis, we strive to collect as many opinions of various experts as possible so that, getting rid of harmful “noises”, we can identify the main trend that determines the movement of the pairs in one direction or another. However, it can be very difficult, as, for example, now, for cryptocurrencies.
Some experts consider the decline of the main crypto pairs last week as the end of the positive correction that started in mid-December 2018, and a return to the negative dynamics of the market. And someone, on the contrary, see it as a post-holiday syndrome, at the end of which the quotes will again rush up.
Whatever it may be, the crypto market's capitalization fell from $138 billion on January 6 to $123 billion on Friday January 11, having lost almost 11%. The quotes of major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and many other, also fell. Thus, the pair BTC/USD is traded near the three-week low in the $3,700 zone.
The reasons for the fall are the fact that investors, hoping for a festive gap, disappointed, are now closing their positions, and the fact that about 40,000 Ethereum coins have been stolen from Gate.io exchange. The news about the failure of the Japanese regulator FSA to launch ETF based on cryptocurrency might also add to the negative reasons. In general, there are many reasons, but the fact remains that all the main altcoins have moved to the red zone and are traded down, from 5% to 23%, as, say, ETH.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As you know, the European currency has a strong correlation with oil and metals. And on the commodity market, we are now witnessing a positive trend, especially with regard to energy. The intentions of OPEC to completely remove the excess oil from the market should lead to a further increase in prices, which plays into the hands of the euro. The pause, taken by the Fed regarding the increase in lending rates for the US dollar, is worrying investors.
As a result, at the moment, 65% of analysts, supported by 90% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators on D1, have voted for the rise the pair above the 1.1500 zone up and its growth, first to the height of 1.1550 and then to the level of 1.1625.
The experts, who still remain loyal to the US currency, believe that, returning to the medium-term channel 1.1300-1.1500, it will not break out of it for a long time. And this is why the pair is expected to decline, first to its central line 1.1400, and then 100 points lower;


- GBP/USD. It is clear that the absolute majority of indicators are currently colored green. However, already 10% of oscillators on D1 signal that this pair is overbought. The possibility of its falling to the horizon 1.2600 is indicated by graphical analysis on the daily time frame as well. As for experts, there is no clear advantage here either for bulls or bears. 55% of them have voted for the growth of the pair, and 45% are for its fall.
On Tuesday, January 15, the British Parliament will vote on Brexit. It is likely that the version of the agreement with the EU proposed by Prime Minister Teresa May will be rejected, and another delay is coming. At the same time, it is becoming more and more obvious that a tough divorce with the European Union is not included in the government’s plans, which positively affects the quotes of the British currency. The additional support for the pound is rendered by the rise in oil prices.
Until the results of the voting become known, there is no sense to make any predictions. One can only specify the key levels: support - 1.2780, 1.2720, 1.2660 and 1.2600, resistance - 1.2925 and 1.3050;

- USD/JPY. Indicators and graphical analysis on D1 predict a strengthening of the Japanese currency, with which 65% of experts agree, they expect the pair to decline to 107.50-107.80, and then even lower, to support 106.70.
On the other hand, due to low interest rates in Japan, the pair is quite strongly correlated with the major global stock indices. And the upward trend in this market implies a possible growth of the pair to the levels of 109.10 and 109.45, and in case of the breakdown of the latter, its transition to the zone of 110.25-110.80;

- Cryptocurrencies. Despite the fall in the crypto market capitalization, the average daily number of transactions with Bitcoin approached 280,000 over the last week, which is comparable to the peaks of 2018. Therefore, it is is hardly worth it to predict the end of the benchmark cryptocurrency, and indeed the entire market. But the probability of the BTC/USD breakout of support $3,700 and its return to the mid-December lows in the $3,250 zone remains quite high. This scenario is supported by 45% of experts.
Most analysts believe that next week the pair will be able to stay in the three-week “speculative” zone of $3.685-4.385. However, they speak very cautiously about the rise to the level of $5,000 and only in the longer term.
The expectations for Ethereum are somewhat better. Experts expect that after the hard fork called Constantinople, the ETH/USD pair will go up.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. One of the scenarios suggested that the pair would return to the limits of the medium-term lateral channel 1.1300-1.1500, and its central line was called as the main target. It is this scenario that was brought to life. It was already on Tuesday, January 15, that the pair reached the horizon of 1.1400 and then moved along its length up to the weekend, making oscillations in a fairly narrow range. At the same time, the pair was under constant pressure, which allowed the bears to lower it to the level of 1.1360 by the end of the working week.
The euro is falling for a number of reasons: this is the weak economic indicators of the Eurozone (first of all, Germany), and the decline in export potential, and chaos with Brexit. At the same time, an active game to increase the British pound has been underway recently, which also did not benefit the European currency;

- GBP/USD. Against the background of talk about a possible postponement of the UK’s exit from the EU and even the possibility of a second referendum, the game to raise the pound after the failure of Prime Minister Theresa May during the Brexit vote was particularly well seen in pairs such as EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF. As for the pound against the US dollar, having fought off on Tuesday from the level of 1.2667, it managed to rise by more than 330 points by Thursday, reaching a symbolic height of 1.3000. After that, there followed a strong rebound, and the pair ended the week almost at the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.2870;

- USD/JPY. The balance that emerged a week ago between the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven and investors' interest in riskier, but also more promising investments, shifted towards the latter. As a result, the pair quotes went up, and by the end of the week, 109.76 yen were already being paid for the dollar;

- Cryptocurrencies. Paraphrasing the name of a famous novel, one can say: "All Quiet on the Crypto Front" Among the positive news is the plans of the Thailand Stock Exchange to obtain a license for operations with digital assets. However, the timing of this initiative is not yet known. The Constantinople hard fork in the Ethereum network is postponed indefinitely until the elimination of vulnerabilities. In general, there reigns a complete uncertainty. Even the ETC tokens stolen from the Gate.io Exchange were for some reason returned back by the attackers without explaining the reasons for their action.
On this blurred news background, the pair BTC/USD is flat. At the same time, the range of its oscillations, starting from Wednesday, is continuously decreasing. Following Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple, and other top altcoins also moved to the lateral movement. And even Ethereum managed to partially recover the loss. As a result, the decline in the ETH/USD pair in seven days was only about 5%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Major investor concerns related to European currency have been listed above. However, not everything is so bad in Europe. Due to the low euro exchange rate, the PMI activity index no longer falls, and many factors point to the stabilization of the eurozone economy. In addition, the market is waiting for the promised ECB interest rate increase in early autumn 2019. As for the US dollar, here, on the contrary, the likelihood of another rate increase in the near term is practically nil. Further growth of the economy is also questionable. Experts believe that the political crisis and the current cessation of government work could lead to a fall in annual GDP of 0.5-0.75%.
All this allows 45% of analysts to talk about the possible strengthening of the euro and the upcoming trend change from bearish to bullish. The immediate goal is the central line of the two-month ascending channel in the 1.1450 zone, then the levels of 1.1500 and 1.1570. 15% of oscillators that give signals that the pair is oversold are in agreement with this scenario.
The remaining 85% of the oscillators, as well as 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1, are colored red. 55% of the experts Insist on the further decline of the pair as well. The support levels are 1.1300, 1.1270 and 1.1215.
The ECB decision on interest rates on Thursday, January 24 can be noted among the events of the upcoming week. However, with almost one hundred percent probability the rate will remain unchanged, and therefore this decision will not affect the quotes of the pair. Of much more interest is the speech of Prime Minister Theresa May at the Parliament of Great Britain, where she should announce her backup plan for leaving the country from the EU;


- GBP/USD. Naturally, everything connected with Brexit directly affects the quotes of the pound. And here there are plenty of options for further developments, which makes the British currency a risky and unpredictable asset.
What is the probability of elections? Will the May government change to the Corbin government? How possible is the hard “divorce” scenario with the European Union? And will the timing of “divorce” be postponed in accordance with Article 50 of the EU Treaty? Is there any chance of a new referendum? And wouldn't this referendum be the reason for large-scale protests and riots?
Questions, questions, questions ... And the complete uncertainty, which is fertile ground for rumors and all sorts of speculations. In such circumstances, 40% of experts believe that the pair still has potential for growth, 40% are waiting for it to fall, and the remaining 20% advise to wait for greater clarity, carefully watching the developments.
Support is in zones 1.2800-1.2830 and 1.2615-1.2645. Resistance levels are 1.2920, 1.3000 and 1.3070;

- USD/JPY. Most experts (60%), in agreement with 90% of oscillators, expect the continuation of capital outflows towards riskier assets and a fall in the yen. In this case, the pair can rise to a height of 110.30, and then another 100 -130 points higher - to a strong support/resistance level of 2017-18. in the zone 111.55.
An alternative point of view is supported by 40% of analysts, graphical analysis on D1 and 10% of oscillators, signaling the pair is overbought. The main support levels are 109.00 and 107.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. For the whole past week, the BTC/USD pair was trading in a very narrow range of $3,570-3,800. Very often, such a lull is a harbinger of strong price movements. 45% of analysts believe that the pair will try to break through the lower boundary of this channel, and, if successful, it is expected to decline to the lows of 2018 in the zone of $3,200-3,250. A bit more experts (55%), on the contrary, expect a rebound upwards. The goal is to return the pair to $3,850-4,215. The reason for this optimism is a certain increase in the capitalization of the crypto market, which, compared with January 13, increased by about 5%, approaching the mark of $130 billion.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. "The "pigeon" rhetoric of ECB Head Mario Draghi during his speech on Thursday January 24 for some time knocked over the pair to the lower border of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, the bears' joy turned out to be short - lived: having visited the level of 1.1289, the pair turned around and returned to the channel center line, at the 1.1400 zone, by Friday evening. Which is understandable: on closer examination, Draghi didn't say anything special. Noting some strengthening of the labor market and reduction of risks for the Eurozone economy, the head of the ECB said that there was no point in holding a new QE now. At the same time, the time frame for the first raising of the interest rate on the euro remains unchanged.
As for the dollar, the situation is reversed. The latest publication in The Wall Street Journal has strengthened investors' opinion that the US Federal Reserve will soon complete a cycle of tightening monetary policy, and this will happen earlier than analysts had expected;

- GBP/USD. The pound is growing along with the hope of a "soft" version of Brexit. Rumors on this have been warmed up by an article in the British tabloid The Sun with an unconfirmed (!)information that the Democratic Unionist Party can support Theresa May ’s initial deal if changes are made there as for the special terms for Ireland. There are also persisting rumors about a possible long delay in the deal with the EU on the basis of Article 50. The voting in the Parliament of Great Britain on Tuesday, January 29 will show if they are founded. In the meantime, the pound shows steady growth against all major currencies, including the euro, yen and dollar. Having broken through the horizons of 1.3000 and 1.3100, by the end of Friday, January 25, the GBP/USD reached the height of 1.3200, adding more than 300 points a week;

- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that the risk appetites of investors continue to grow, the Japanese currency has stopped falling. The pair moved to a sideways movement in a narrow corridor 109.14-110.00 and ended the week almost in the middle of this corridor, in the zone 109.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. The lull in this market continues, capitalization is not growing, and the major coins rates are showing a sideways trend. Neither criticism from JP Morgan analysts, nor criticism from a number of participants in the World Economic Forum in Davos, who had already completely buried Bitcoin, or the withdrawal of Bitcoin-ETF from the Chicago CBOE exchange, could affect it . The pair BTC/USD could not get out of the corridor of $3,570-3,800. Attempts to break it both up or down ended in failure. In the first case, the pair managed to reach the height of 3.870, in the second - go down to the horizon of 3.460, but eventually returned to the center of the corridor in the region of $3,580-3,675.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The rates of dollar pairs in the near future will certainly be affected by news of trade negotiations with China, which will be held on January 30-31 in Washington, and which have quite a lot of chances for success. In addition, statistics for the US labor market will appear on February 1. However, Trump's economic adviser Larry Cudlow has already “leaked” the information that indicators such as NFP will increase greatly, given a very small number of applications for unemployment benefits.
In addition, on Thursday, January 31, Eurozone GDP data will be published, which are likely to be disappointing.
All this can strengthen the US currency, which is agreed by 60% of experts, expecting the EUR/USD pair to fall, first to the lower border of the medium-term channel 1.1300, and then even lower, to support 1.1270 and 1.1215.
On the other hand, as has already been said, the market has intensified expectations that the tightening of US monetary policy will be phased out. That is why on January 30, special attention should be paid not so much to the Fed's decision on the interest rate (this time it is likely to remain at 2.5%), but rather to the comments of the Fed management on the plans for 2019. And if the information on the number of upcoming rate increases will disappoint investors, we can expect a decline in the dollar, which could turn into a long-term trend. In this case, according to 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD in the near future can break through the upper limit of the channel 1.1500 and reach the level of 1.1580.
And of course, we must not forget about the vote in the British Parliament on Brexit;

- GBP/USD. So, on Tuesday, January 29, Prime Minister Theresa May should announce her alternate plan for leaving the EU in the British Parliament. Some versions of this have already been mentioned in the first part of this forecast. The Labor opposition cannot decide what to do, and this reduces the likelihood of a second referendum or re-election. And the Telegraph is discussing as much as five amendments, which can be put to a vote.
We will know only on Tuesday how the parliamentarians voted. As for our experts, their votes are distributed as follows: 50% expect the pair to fall, 40% see its growth, and 10% are undecided. Supports are at the levels of 1.3070, 1.2900, 1.2820, 1.2700 and 1.26 60. Resistance levels are 1.3250, 1.3300, 1.3360 and 1.3555;

- USD/JPY. Unlike the British Parliament, there are no surprises to be expected from the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy committee meeting on January 28. The rate of the pair may be much stronger affect ed by the information from the United States. This and the information regarding the increase in interest rates on the dollar, and the success or failure in the US-China negotiations January 30-31. If both sides come to a consensus, and it is quite likely, since Trump is in great need, the American stock market will go up. In this case, the rate may rise above 110 yen for 1 dollar. 70% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, indicate a strong level of 2017–18 in the zone 111.55 as the main target.
An alternative point of view is held by 30% of experts and 15% of oscillators on D1, which give signals that the pair is overbought. In the case of its downward movement, supports are located at horizons 109.15,108.70 and 107.75.


- Cryptocurrencies. The sluggish reaction to the news, which a year ago would have caused fluctuations in quotations in the tens or even hundreds of percent, suggests that the digital currency market is increasingly beginning to resemble Forex. This is facilitated not only by the “water tub”, which has cooled the heat of the most ardent crypto fans, but also by the increased attention from regulators. This time, the Bank of England has attended for the protection of investors, who gathered to classify cryptocurrencies, having divided them into three categories and subordinating to the current legislation.
We think that in the near future we should not expect the arrival of large institutional investors, which their smaller colleagues so much hoped for. The “whales” do not have any goals to earn quick profits, and they will wait until the market situation is completely clear, and the risks from such speculations become the lowest. And such an expectation can last for years and even decades.
In the meantime, as already mentioned, the major coins are in a side trend. However, it is impossible not to notice the persistent pressure from the bears. For example, the Pivot line, around which the BTC/USD has fluctuated over the last two weeks, has dropped by 20 points, the ripple (XRP/USD) has fallen by about 5%, and the Ethereum (ETH/USD) - by 8%. Of course, it is a trifle for crypto pairs, but, perhaps, it is an indicator of the direction of the coming breakthrough.
The overwhelming majority (70%) of experts believe that bitcoin will finally yield to such pressure and will decrease first to the 2018 lows in the $3,200-3,250 zone, and then rush to support at $2,400.
10% of analysts have voted for the continuation of the side trend, and 20% are hoping for the pair to grow and return to the $3,850-4,215 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. In general, the week has not brought any surprises. No one had expected a rate increase at this FOMC meeting, but investors had been worried about the comments of the Fed management on plans for 2019. And here their forebodings about the “pigeon” comments were fully justified. Instead of specific promises, the regulator spoke about the fact that the decision to further rate increase should take into account global economic factors and be extremely balanced. Thus, the uncertainty caused a sharp sell-off of the dollar, as a result of which the pair soared to the upper border of the medium-term lateral channel 1.1300-1.1500. However, then the situation calmed down, and the pair turned to the south.
Another expected event was the publication of the US labor market data on Friday, February 01. The statistics really turned out to be extremely positive. Thus, NFP grew by 37% compared with the previous month (from 222K to 304K), and the ISM business activity index rose from 54.3 to 56.6. But this did not come as a surprise either thanks to Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who, as we wrote in the previous review, “leaked” this information long before the official publication. As a result, the market reaction was limited to insignificant fluctuations within 40 points, after which the pair completed the week at the level of 1.1455;

- GBP/USD. The next meeting of the UK Parliament on Brexit has not added any clarity to the process of divorce from the European Union. As a result, the pound lost about 160 points in the first half of the week, and then moved into a sideways trend, making fluctuations in the range of 1.3050-1.3150, and finished the week at the level of 1.3075;

- USD/JPY. Like the rest of the dollar pairs, the USD/JPY responded to the Fed's comment with the US currency dropping to 108.50. However, then, taking advantage of the positive dynamics in the US labor market, the dollar won back the losses, and the pair returned by the end of the week to where it had begun, to 109.50;

- Cryptocurrencies. It was noted In the previous forecast that the major coins are in a side trend, constantly experiencing pressure from bears. 70% of experts had supported the scenario according to which Bitcoin was supposed to yield to such pressure and gradually decrease to 2018 lows. The past week confirmed the validity of such expectations. On Tuesday, February 29, the benchmark cryptocurrency fixed a local minimum at $3,425, after which the rebound followed, and the pair saw February in the $3,500 zone. As for the capitalization of the crypto market as a whole, it “dried out” by 5.5% over the week, dropping to $113.6 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. There appears a hope for a trade deal with China, siding with the dollar. On January 31, another round of negotiations on this topic ended in Washington. And as analysts say, progress in the negotiation process cost both sides a lot of effort. The American negotiators showed an obvious desire to succeed, because President Trump is now in dire need of something positive. However, the industrial espionage accusations made by the Americans against Huawei Technologies Co. somewhat overshadowed the optimistic picture drawn by the parties. The next round of talks is to be held in Beijing in mid-February.
The counterbalance to the successful negotiations, as already mentioned above, was made by the US Federal Reserve, who doubted the need for another increase in the interest rate. And if in the medium term, 60% of analysts are still waiting for the dollar to strengthen, this week the majority (70%) sided with the euro. In their opinion, which is supported by approximately 80% of the oscillators and trend indicators on D1, the EUR/USD will once again try to break through the upper limit of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500 and gain a foothold in the area of 1.1500-1.1570. The next target is the height of 1.1625.
The alternative scenario has been supported by 30% of experts, graphical analysis on H4 and about 20% of oscillators, giving signals that the pair is overbought. In this case, the pair, having failed to break through the key level of 1.1500, will be located in the side corridor 1.1400-1.1500 for some time. And if there is positive news for the dollar, it will make an attempt to reach support on the horizon of 1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Thursday, February 7 will see a decision of the Bank of England on the interest rate, which is likely to remain unchanged, at the level of 0.75%. Investors are Much more concerned about the situation with Brexit, but there is no clarity here. Moreover, the likelihood of a British exit from the EU without a deal has begun to grow again. That is why 65% of analysts predict a decline of the pair first to the level of 1.2930, and then another 100 points lower.
As for the indicators, about 40% of them are colored red on H4, 40% are green and 20% are neutral gray. Although, on D1 the green color dominates: 60% versus 30% red and 10% gray. The nearest resistance is 1.3215, then 1.3250 and 1.3300;

- USD/JPY. Certain surprises can be expected from this pair in the near future, and the reason is oriental New Year. Traditionally this time is not only for summarizing financial results, but also for active actions by the Bank of Japan, which for several years in a row begins to buy and sell large amounts of currency at this moment. Such interventions can cause a jump of several hundred points, and at the moment most analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to first fall to 108.00-108.55, and then return to the horizon 110.00. At the same time, about 60% of experts believe that the pair will not stop at what has been achieved and can reach resistance at the level of 111.70 within a month;


- Cryptocurrencies. Experts and investors can now be divided into two groups. The first group believes that the current lull is the lull before the storm. The second one thinks is that it is a lull before ... even more calm. Andy Bromberg, the head of CoinList crypto exchange, has sided with the latter. , having said in his interview to Yahoo Finance that the situation in the market will be calm as all the necessary instruments have been created already and the companies will focus not on speculations but on innovations and product development.
This scenario is also supported by the report of Circle Research, according to which, despite the fact that direct investment in digital currencies decreased 8.5 times over the year, investments in blockchain companies, on the contrary, increased 3 times and exceeded $5 billion.
As for the forecast for the next few weeks, 70% of experts still believe that Bitcoin should decline to the 2018 lows in the zone of $3,200-3,250, and then rush to support at $ 2,400. The remaining 30% of analysts do not exclude a short-term growth of the BTC/USD pair to $3,700-3,850, and possibly even higher, to the height of 4.215.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. One of the development scenarios, supported, however, by only 30% of experts, suggested a decline of the pair to the lower border of the medium-term side channel 1.1300-1.1500. This is what happened: having lost about 130 points, the pair recorded the week low at the level of 1.1320.
The reason for the strengthening of the dollar and, as a result, for the fall of the pair, was the growth of anti-risk sentiment due to increased pessimism in resolving the US-China trade conflict and not the most favorable expectations for economic growth in the Eurozone. Thus, the European Commission, talking about "significant risks", has substantially lowered its forecast for the GDP growth from 1.9% to 1.3% in 2019 and from 1.7% to 1.6% in 2020. Such an adjustment has significantly pressured the euro, making the market understand that it is not worth expecting an increase in interest rates this year;

- GBP/USD. In unison with the European Commission, the Bank of England also declared that its previous forecasts were too optimistic, and the lack of clarity with Brexit is a burden for the country's economy. The Bank specialists expect the growth rate to be the lowest in the last 10 years, as a result of which the UK GDP forecast for 2019 has been lowered from 1.7% to 1.2%.
The pound sank sharply on this negative news and, as 65% of the experts had expected, the pair reached 1.2850. Then it rose a little against the background of an article about possible progress in negotiations on the British exit from the EU and special conditions for Ireland, and then sank again and completed the five-day period at 1.2940;

- USD/JPY. The majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, had expected strong fluctuations of the rate and the fall of the pair to the zone 108.00-108.55, after which it should return to the horizon 110.00. However, contrary to forecasts, the pair behaved very calmly, and the maximum amplitude of its oscillations did not exceed 60 points. For the third week in a row, time after time, the pair returns to the zone of 109.55-110.0 0. This time again, starting the week session at the level of 109.55, the pair completed it at the level of 109.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. We divided the experts into two groups last week. The first is those who believe that the current calm is the calm before the storm. The second one thinks is that it is a lull before ... even more calm. All week, Bitcoin quotes were falling smoothly and quietly, reaching a low of $3,400 on Wednesday, February 6. Then a very sluggish “side” followed, and Friday afternoon it “jerked”: the BTC/USD rushed up, in a matter of hours adding about 12% and reaching the level of $3,800.
Is this a precursor of a storm? If you look at the graph H1, of course it is. However, everything is not so impressive on the daily timeframe: the pair has just returned to the consolidation line (or Pivot Point), along which it has been moving for 11 weeks already, starting from the end of November 2018.
The reason for the growth was an interview fragment published in Tweeter of one of the four SEC commissioners, Robert Jackson, who said that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may still allow the launch of Bitcoin-ETF funds.
Following Bitcoin (BTC/USD), the rest of the top cryptocurrencies went up. The greatest growth was demonstrated by Litecoin (LTC/USD), adding at its maximum 40% and reaching the price of $46.0 0. Ethereum rose to the level of $124.70, and Ripple (XRP/USD) reached a height of $0.3250.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It is clear that after the week-long rally to the south, most of the indicators are colored red. However, already 25% of oscillators on both H4 and D1 give signals the pair being oversold, which means at least an upcoming strong correction, if not a complete reversal of the trend.
A graphical analysis for the next five days draws lateral movement in the range of 1.1285-1.1400, after which the pair should return to the upper boundary of the medium-term channel in the 1.1500 zone by the end of the month.
The expert community has not yet decided: 50% expect the pair to fall, 50% see its growth, which is due to the lack of any clarity both on Brexit and on the US-China negotiations. In addition, the events of the coming week can make their own adjustments. here we should bear in mind the publication of data on GDP of Germany and the EU on Thursday, February 14, as well as on inflation and retail sales in the US on February 13 and 14.
Also, on Tuesday, February 12, the market will look for signals from the head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell regarding a possible increase in interest rates. Meanwhile the level of recession expectations in the United States has risen to 20%, and it is possible that the issue of interest rates will be postponed until better times. EU and UK regulators are also constantly talking about the risks to economic growth, which should entail easing monetary policy.
According to many experts, this gives reason to think about buying stocks on the stock market, because slowing economic growth while maintaining cheap money can lead to an increase in their prices. Here it makes sense to pay attention to portfolio investments in shares of the most reliable and promising global companies that are offered to their clients by the brokerage company NordFX;

- GBP/USD. On Monday, February 11, data on GDP will be published, and on Wednesday, February 13, there will be data on inflation in the UK. Most likely, they will indicate a slowdown in the growth of the country's economy, as already mentioned above. Thus, according to forecasts, GDP growth will decline compared with the previous quarter from 0.6% to 0.2%. But, like many months in a row, news and rumors about Brexit will have a major impact on quotes.
There is another category of rumors, that some international companies are buying the British currency, which Bloomberg hinted at carefully, and this gives the pound some support.
At the moment, 60% of analysts have voted for the pound strengthening and rising of the pair to the horizon of 1.3040, and then another 80-100 points higher. The remaining 40% of experts, on the contrary, expect the pair to drop to at least the level of 1.2830. But the graphical analysis on H4 has taken a compromise position, indicating that the pair can first decline to the level of 1.2830, and only then go to growth, reaching the height of 1.3040;

- USD/JPY. The prevailing color is gray, that is, neutral, both with experts and indicators. The strengthening of the US dollar against major world currencies is on one side of the scale. On the other, there are increased risks of a slowdown in the global economy and another round of tension between the United States and China, which entails an increase in demand for a safe haven currency such as the Japanese yen. The pair managed to keep in a very narrow range of 109.55-110.15 for the whole week, which indicates the complete uncertainty of the market and does not allow to make any predictions for the moment;

- Cryptocurrencies. The full interview by SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson will be released this week and its content may both push the quotes further up or have the opposite effect. After all, whatever you say, but the Securities and Exchange Commission has almost 240 days to make a final decision on the application to launch Bitcoin-ETF, and during this time a lot can change.
In the meantime, experts call its movement in the $3,250-3,800 range as the main scenario for the BTC/USD. However, they do not exclude the short-term breakdown of the upper limit and the rise of the pair to the level of $4,000.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the expert community was not able to form a more or less definite opinion on the movement of this pair last week. This was due to the lack of clarity on both Brexit and the US-China negotiations. In addition, analysts were waiting for the release of data on GDP in Germany and the EU, as well as inflation and retail sales in the US. And if Europe showed an expected growth of 1.2%, and Germany rose by 0.2% (from -0.2% to 0.0%), the data from the USA caused a strong alarm in the market. Retail sales fell by 1.2%, the maximum value in 10 years. As a result, the dollar index suspended growth and moved away from two-month highs.
The dollar has also stopped growing to the European currency. However, if we sum up the results of the whole five-day week, the victory nevertheless remained with the “American”: having started from the level of 1.1320, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.1295;

- GBP/USD. Pound is falling for the third week in a row. The problems associated with Brexit have been supplemented by poor macroeconomic indicators indicating a slowdown in the country's economy: the GDP growth has declined compared to the previous quarter from 0.6% to 0.2%, and the consumer price index fell by 0.3%. As a result, the pair recorded a weekly minimum at 1.2770 on Thursday.
Then the statistics on the US economy came out and turned the trend from south to north. As a result, the British pound was able to win back 115 points from the dollar and complete the week at 1.2885;

- USD/JPY. The Japanese currency was losing ground throughout the first half of the week, reaching the value of 111.12 yen per dollar. But then, against the background of the fall in the stock market due to the weak economic data from the United States and the US-China talks that once again reached a deadlock, the pair made a sharp reversal. Increased appetites for risk-free investments allowed the quotes to lower to the level of 110.25, after which a correction followed, and the pair froze at 110.45;

- Cryptocurrencies. Last week, answering the question of whether the Bitcoin jerk to the height of $3,800 could be considered a harbinger of a storm, we noticed that the pair had just returned to the consolidation line (or Pivot Point), along which it has been moving for 11 weeks, beginning in late November 2018. And we were right: the consolidation continued, and the pair kept in a very narrow side corridor of $3,630-3,750 for the whole, already the 12th, week.
The total capitalization of the crypto market has also remained almost unchanged. If it was at the level of $121.78 billion on Friday, February 9, after seven days it was equal to $120.16 billion. As for the top altcoins, in contrast to the reference cryptocurrency, they showed a somewhat greater volatility. So, for example, the fluctuations range of Litecoin (LTC/USD) was about 15%, and of Ripple (XRP/USD) - about 7%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Not the rosiest economic situation in Europe is on one side of the scale, on the other is the collapse of stock indices and trade wars in the United States. JP Morgan and Macroeconomic Advisers lower their forecasts for the US GDP growth. And BofA Merrill Lynch and Bloomberg raise their forecasts for the Eurozone. In their opinion, the zero growth of Germany’s GDP is a temporary factor, and in the case of the soft Brexit and improvements in the Chinese economy, Germany, together with the rest of Europe, will turn to sustainable economic growth. All this, together with the desire of the Fed to take a pause in monetary tightening, gives the market a reason to believe that the measures of the regulator are late, the recession in the US is not far off, and the balance will swing to Europe. In this case, the pressure on the dollar will increase. But this is for the future.
In the meantime, 70% of experts, supported by indicators on D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD downtrend line to continue. The immediate goal is 1.1200. The following support is located in the zone 1.1085-1.1115.
The opposite opinion is held by 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1, who believe that problems in the US economy will force the dollar to lose ground in the near future. In this case, the pair will return to the limits of the medium-term corridor 1.1300-1.1500 and rush first to its central and then to the upper border;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is similar to the forecast for the pair EUR/USD. Here, also, 70% of experts, along with 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to fall, and 30%, along with graphical analysis, show its growth. The inevitably approaching hour of divorce from the EU under still incomprehensible conditions, sides with the former. The latter have those problems of the United States, about which much has already been said above, on their side. Support levels are 1.2830, 1.2715, 1.2655, resistances are 1.2925, 1.3000 and 1.3065;


- USD/JPY. If the US dollar feels good enough against the euro and the pound, this cannot be said about the confrontation with the yen. The positive dynamics of the Japanese currency as a safe haven may continue with a further deterioration in the global economic outlook and a decrease in risk appetites.
Experts' opinions have divided in half regarding the nearest future of the pair, but in the transition to the monthly forecast, 65% of analysts vote for the strengthening of the yen. The support levels for the pair are 110.00, 109.60, 109.10, 108.50. The resistance levels are 110.65, 111. 25, 112.30, 113.70;

- Cryptocurrencies. As analysts say, there are no fundamental factors explaining the Bitcoin jump to the height of $3,800. So, most likely, this upward impulse will not develop further. 65% of experts believe the most likely movement of the BTC/USD pair is in the range of 3,500-3,300 with a gradual decrease to the level of $3,000. The remaining 35% of analysts have an opposite point of view, expecting the pair to be able, at least for a while, to rise to the level of $4,000.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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