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China’s Debt-rating Downgraded by Moody’s to A1 from Aa3 The credit rating of China was downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service on Wednesday, the previous Aa3 (Double A-3) were down to A1 which means that the Chinese economy is going to grind lower for the next years as the country showed slow growth and its debt continuously increase. The downgrade is done due to the financial pressure that the government faces after years of credit-driven stimulus.
Craig Erlam, a Senior Market Analyst of Oanda, said in an interview, “Because talk of Chinese debt and concerns about the size of Chinese debt has been going on for the last few years. They seem to be very reliant on these high levels of growth, which has been slowing.” He further added that the credit downgrade does not surprise him at all.
The second largest economy in the world gained 6.7 percent last year and 6.9 in 2015, this pace is the slowest based on the records since 1990 by which Erlam believes that the following years appears to be challenging.
The bond credit rating company has expectations that the direct debt burden of China’s government will climb higher reaching 40 percent of 2018’s Gross Domestic Product which is close to the 45 percent as the decade ends. However, it remains lower to the 60 percent for the European Union.
The Finance Ministry of the republic claims that the downgrade is based on an improper approach that overestimated the risks on the increasing debt.
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Trump Proposed 45 Percent Cut in Mexico Aid from U.S. Spending On Tuesday, the U.S. spending reserved for foreign aid for Mexico and Central America are to be reduced as proposed by the President Donald Trump. The budget was proposed to trim as much as $3.6 trillion government spending in the following ten years for 2018 budget proposal.Although, this may not get a legislative approval as to how it is currently with other departments cuts especially in the State department.
Mexican aid worth $87.66 million will be lessened over 45 percent from the 2016 expenditure when Trump's proposal is approved. The budget cut will be transferred to the Mexican military including counterterrorism funds and other government programs. One of the officials commented that these deals are focused on bolstering border security and fight against corruption that may have hindered transnational criminal organizations. There will be a meeting to discuss the employment and security concerns in Central America in June.
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Trump Calls for Investigation Following Manchester Leaks US President Donald Trump has already called for an investigation regarding the “Manchester leaks” in order for the US government to determine how top-secret information were able to make their way towards the headlines of news reports, when these sets of information were actually only divulged to the key allies of the British government. Several UK officials have already expressed their dismay and disappointment with regards to this particular matter, among them being UK Prime Minister Theresa May. The bombings in Manchester last Monday night had killed a total of 22 people and has left more than 100 people with injuries. The victims were attending a pop concert before the bombings occurred.
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Drop in Oil Prices Discontented Investors in its Low Figure Oil prices declined by 5 percent following the extension of production cuts by Opec causing other oil producing countries to be dismayed who are expecting a bigger reduction. Consequently, crude prices dropped to the highest percentage drop since early March.
During the last OPEC meeting, they reached an agreement to prolong supply cuts constitute of 1.8 million barrels per day until the first quarter ends next year and investors are anticipating around half a million extra barrels to be contracted. However, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Khalid Al-Falih said that other ministers find it unnecessary to lessen the output further and nine months is the “optimum” duration.
On the other hand, U.S. shale producers are motivated to provide more supplies because of the cheap cost of oil at $50 bpd. Although, they have to be careful since it could exceed the target increase and bring down further the price, stated by the Texas shale oil producer president David Arrington.
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Fast Track Economic Recovery of India in the First Quarter The economy of India is considered as the fastest developing major economy globally in the previous quarter, induced by positive performance in manufacturing and services. For short-term, the demonetization has affected the demand but was able to recover. The forecast for this year ranged between 6.5 and 7.8 while the actual data achieved a 7.1 percent growth from January to March this year. It has significantly risen from last year’s Q1 growth of 7.9 percent.
The upswing in the economic growth was mainly pushed by positive domestic factors taking into account a notable progress of the central bank easing of policy rate into lending rates of financial institutions that made investment appealing to investors. Moreover, the infrastructure spending has substantiated growth and probability for better agricultural output when the monsoon rains become beneficial.
On the other hand, the goods and sales tax (GST) is also anticipated to contribute to the economy as its removal will encourage more businesses in India. This will be implemented on July 1st.
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Asian Market Weakened as it Traded Sideways The stock markets of Asia were unsteady on Tuesday since investors hovered in the sideline prior the publication of the raft of economic statistics scheduled this week. While, the Taipei market coupled with Shanghai, Hong Kong are not in operation due to a holiday.
Moreover, the Nikkei 225 of Tokyo declined by 0.5 percent to 19,576.19, seeing the Kospi of South Korea to plunged to 0.6 percent to 2,338.21, S&P/ASX 200 of Australia lower down by 0.1 percent to 5,701.60. Likewise, Singaporean market had a dip along with the Philippines and New Zealand but the Indonesian benchmark surge.
Jingyi Pan, a market strategist at IG based in Singapore, said that the Asian house market is projected to maintain its thin volumes which start in the countries of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan which are all closed in consideration of the market holiday.
The data were to be issued this week would likely offer some hints for the investors about the current state of the international economy. Investors anticipate for the consumer confidence index along with the eurozone business data later this day.
On the energy sector, the benchmark for US crude dropped 4 cents up to $49.76 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had increased by 90 cents up until $49.80 per barrel yesterday. The Brent crude further decreased by 20 cents till $52.44/barrel in London.
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US Budget Concerns Casts Doubt on Fed Plans The US Federal Reserve is more than ready to raise its interest rates this coming June, but the possibility of the Congress rattling up the markets by slowing down progress on increasing the debt ceiling of the US economy has cast a shadow of doubt on the Fed’s next scheduled rate hike on September. Prior to this development, the Fed has been saying that they are currently planning to implement two more rate hikes before the year ends, but has now reverted to saying that the third rate hike for year might be in for some delays if the market gets shaken by possible disagreements on fiscal policies.
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Slow Growth of Scottish Economy, EY reports Based on the forecast of the EY Scottish item club that the GDP growth will be weak falling below expectation with 0.9% growth this year where a half of it is expected for the Britain and will predominantly hit the retail sector. It is anticipated to fall by 0.1% this year and will decrease in a bigger number by 0.5% and 0.3% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Consumers will be greatly pressured from this which will increase by 1% in 2017 and below 1% in the succeeding years until 2020 while the employment is assumed to drop by fall this year.
On the other hand, the manufacturing sector will rise following the overall economy for the first time since 4 years ago, because of higher demand and depreciation of sterling which will boost exports.
Overall, the Scottish economy is foreseen to have a sluggish growth than the Britain by 0.7% in 2018 before gaining its momentum again to reach 1.4% growth within this decade.
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Goldman Sachs Higher Rates to Gain More Clients The Goldman Sachs Bank U.S.A. intends to increase its rates on client deposit by 1.2 percent from the previous 1.05 percent. The rate hike makes them higher than other financial institutions including CIT Bank, Synchrony Bank, and New York Community Bank's My
Banking Direct. The average rate is at 0.06 percent 0.06 percent as reported by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
They are searching for ways to improve lending in money management and investment banking category which they said to had a rough time with. In 2016, they introduced Marcus as their primary approach to consumer lending. This rate hike move hopes to expand profit of Goldman Sachs and appeal to additional Main Street clients which will eventually give bigger gains. Also, these deposits open a more robust type of funding and this would have stayed longer during uncertainty.
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Limited Drop of Sterling in the Global Market Amid U.K. Parliamentary Election On Friday, the British pound slumped following vague results without a particular party that dominated that election. Hence, investors are trying to weigh on risks including both events in the United States and Europe. As a result, the cable dropped by 2 percent amid the political problem that could hamper the Brexit talks and cause more uncertainty which will begin in more than a week.
Yields on 10-year gilt dropped by 3 basis points to 1.00 percent while the FTSE futures recovered as it gained 0.2 percent bringing hopes up to economic progress. The e-mini futures for the S&P 500 has a lesser impact as it increases by 0.1 percent.
The single currency slid overnight following the announcement of ECB forecast to ease inflation but did not talked to tune down the massive bond-buying campaign pushing bond yields to multi-month lows. Its effect in the global investment market can not be defined as it represents just 2.5 percent of world GDP.
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ECB Not Yet to Withdraw Stimulus Program The European Central Bank decided to loosen its monetary policy on Thursday but indicated that it further needs some support from the central bank amid increasing growth.
Mario Draghi, ECB president, is very cautious in his announcement regarding the withdrawal stimulus.
During the meeting held on Thursday which is accompanied by 25 members of the council, the bank kept its interest rates and bond-purchase stimulus program steady.
The governing council settled small adjustments towards the 19 emerging countries that utilizes the European currency by stating that interest rates could probably move lower. While Draghi issued another significant change as he described that risk to growth is currently “broadly balanced”, the tweak was announced during the April wherein risk are said to "tilted to the downside."
Carsten Brzeski, analyst at ING-DiBa, allegorize the bank’s statement to a baby’s first step intended to taper the stimulus effort. The financial institution preserved its bond-buying program at 60 billion euros ($67 billion) each month which will last this year or longer.
Moreover, ECB officials were in a stew for the market’s response to the untimely notice that the stimulus will end as the rates will climb higher, undermining the effects.
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Finland’s Export Data Shows Signs of Recovery The Bank of Finland forecast data shows the growth of Finland’s economy as exports recuperated gains although it still needed reform to enhance development and stronger public finances. This growth is marked as a big progress following a decade state in hiatus state due to various economic and business problems. The GDP progress is anticipated to improve by 2.1 percent in 2017 which is higher than the former forecast of 1.6 percent in March. In the previous year, the GDP grew by 1.4 percent.
Amid the steady growth of exports, the economic growth still depends on the private consumption and investment and will further progress when the employment condition gets better to support an increase in purchasing power. Hence, the center-right government has lessened expenditures and eased labor laws yet the central bank sees the need other strategies to boost the current and future growth.
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Fed Implements Rate Hike, Maintains Outlook for Next Hike The US Federal Reserve has pushed through with its planned interest rate hike for this month while outlining its plans to continue with stricter monetary policies in spite of the country’s weak inflation rates. FOMC officials approved the central bank’s third rate hike within a six-month period and hinted at possibly another rate hike just before the end of 2017. Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated in a press conference following the announcement that the bank’s plans of unwinding its policies might be implemented sooner than later, especially if the country’s economic status meets the expectations of the Fed. Moreover, the central bank is also looking into a three-quarter point rate increase for 2018 just like its previous projection last March.
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NZ Below Expectation Economic Growth The New Zealand economy climbed by 0.5 percent in the first quarter of the year but still lower than market expectations as the construction sector weakened. The forecast figure of the central bank is 0.9 percent while the analysts predicted it to attain 0.7 percent, which obviously fell short from both predictions.
Despite positive growth for the milk production and a moderate growth of GDP, these were out shadowed by weak data from the construction sector and the mixed results from the service sector. The construction data declined by 2.1 percent for Q1 that negated the 4.3 percent augmentation in agriculture particularly the milk production.
An economic analyst described this phenomenon to be transient and the economy will advance at estimated of 3.0 to 3.5 percent this year. Also, other sectors are performing well but there is no need for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to adjust its cash rate from a record low of 1.75 percent.
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Calgary Council to Create a $10-million Economic Development Fund The council of Calgary asked to produce an economic development investment fund (EDIF) that accounts to $10 million during on its meeting scheduled on Monday. Based on the Statistics Canada, there were almost 53, 000 jobs lost in Calgary, a region in Alberta, Canada.
In other countries like North America, the purpose of EDIF is to create diversification and to work out with the economic downswing.
Moreover, the city council released a report regarding the objectives of the said project: (1)Help create the right conditions for growth in the local economy, through efforts to strengthen industries and create new ones; (2) Diversify the local economy; (3) Leverage municipal funds for additional private and public sector investments into the community; (4) Create employment lands and stimulate employment; and (5) Create a return on investment (both direct and indirect).
Councillor Richard Pootmans approves the deal for he believes that investments should be administered within the community because no one else will do this favor for the Calgary.
Pootmans was recognized having a background in economic development prior entering politics.
The 20 percent of the $10-million worth EDIF will be allotted to the 10 cornerstone arts organizations that include the Calgary Folk Music Festival, Theatre Calgary, and The Calgary Philharmonic Orchestra. While the municipal politician would likely consider this idea as he said that, arts is one of the primary factors why people visit their art galleries.
The City administrators further stated that art organizations support the high quality of life in the region with an active metro and the economy is well-diversified.
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Positive Economic Feelings of Americans, No Help For Trump, CNBC says The American economy remains optimistic as shown in the All-America Economic Survey by CNBC, along with some leading components reaching its highest level, however, this optimism does not help the president.
The poll shows that 800 U.S. citizens or 30 percent of the populace believe that the economy is in upbeat as of this moment until the future. It's the highest percentage recorded in the past two successive quarters amid survey's 10-year history.
There are 54 percent who think that house price will surge in 2018 and 44 percent who deems that their earnings will further rose for the following year. The stocks as well demonstrated a positive stance as there were 44 percent assumed that this period is a time for good investment
However, the positive tone of Trump’s economy does not contribute much help towards the approval rating of the state’s leader which showed a 37 percent decline based on the recent survey versus 39 percent result in April. President D. Trump’s approval on the economy is down to 41 percent and 44 percent in April. Moreover, negative factors may arise driven by various groups particularly laborers such as blue collar, independents, and retirees.
As the public has split belief, the poll found that quarter of the United States economy is becoming better due to policies adopted by the president. On one side, there are 22 percent who said that his plans worsen the country.
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US Senate to Release Draft of Healthcare Bill The Republican bloc of the US Senate will be releasing their draft of the healthcare bill this Thursday as the country’s senators attempt to iron out several issues within the country’s economy, such as the Medicaid program and the daunting task of decreasing insurance costs. Republicans have been struggling for several weeks as they attempt to revise major chunks of Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. Meanwhile, members of the Democratic bloc have staged a protest last Monday as part of their collective dissent towards these closed-door meetings of the Republican bloc.
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Economists Predicted Optimistic Outlook for China’s Economy According to the most recent poll, Chinese economists have a positive outlook regarding the future of the country’s economy. Forecasts say that the economic growth of China will gain 6.6 percent, this means that aggregate needs of China is extended up to 2034 only in order to take after the United States.
The survey was released by the bi-monthly journal, China Economist last June 14 which shows 131 analysis questionnaires. The study is done quarterly conducted by investment banks, research institutions, and widely-known economists.
Financial experts that came from the western and central regions of China estimated that the country will expand from 6.63 to 6.6 percent which is higher versus its rivals from the east. While the majority of the analyst believes that manufacturing in China will remain unchanged. The survey further indicates the upbeat tone of Chinese economist regarding the Republic’s better performance driven by the government confidence.
There are 35.2 percent of experts that the national debt of the country became much stable rather than of the U.S, considering its debt-to-GDP ratio is almost low and its growth rate in GDP is quite high.
Moreover, there are 91.2 percent economists who support the 100-day action plan designed by US President, Donald Trump as they deemed that the American economy can fully recover along with potential revitalization of the manufacturing sector of the state.
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U.S. Bond Market Flat Yield Curve Warns the Economy Federal Reserve authorities are applying more on a hawkish side on the next rate hike signifying less confident prediction for long-term economic growth. The U.S. Treasury yield curve giving a flat yield curve forebodes warning signals on the economy. Buyers will look out for higher yields especially for long-term debts when costs increase.
Dallas Fed president said that the cause of the yield curve is the weakened market growth while the New York Fed president described the reason to be the low offshore inflation and borrowing rates instead of a sluggish economic growth.
However, the flat yield curve could further ease the current financial condition amid the efforts of Fed to tighten its monetary policies but would benefit riskier assets such as stocks that are not easily affected by the strength of the economy. Nevertheless, the Fed cannot manage the whole monetary base since there are still parts under shadow banking which are larger than what the Fed controls in the present as described by a market strategist.
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Corporate Sectors Face Risks Despite Economic Advancement in Q2 The economy of China has progress in the second quarter as the corporate profits rose and employed more workers in the recent surveyed but the country still yet to face difficulties. Nevertheless, corporates were able to endure a tighter financing condition amid signs of problems regards to negative cash flow and inventory levels. Commodities sector is strengthening in spite of weak price in the second quarter
This is in line with the latest data and rhetorics of policy makers who tried to control financial risks to prevent the collapse of the economy which would be discussed on the significant political meeting.
The government intervenes with its campaign to control debt risks and steady the financial market since the cash supply was sluggish in the past two decades in May. Notwithstanding, the bank lending remained strong. Companies are starting to sense tighter credit while they presume the deleveraging to be transitory.
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Retail Sales in Japan Fell Off in May The retail sales growth in Japan had slowed down in May versus the previous year, which means that consumers remain uncertain on their expenses. Last year, retail sales were able to gain 2 percent in May on the back of 3.2 percent increase in April.
The surge was mainly driven by motor vehicles, fuel, medicine and toiletries based on the economy ministry of Japan. Compared with the previous month, sales dropped by 1.6 percent from April after a 1.4 percent increase.
The Japanese economy sustained a five-quarter growth period, influenced by increasing exports and stronger domestic demand. However, the private expenditure weakened due to stagnant wages and without rebound salary as consumers are unlikely to spend a lot more.
The latest consumption index accelerated by 3.7 percent in May 2016 and decline from April. The statistics were based on JCB Consumption Now index that utilizes credit card data. Yasutoshi Nagai, chief economist at Daiwa Securities based in Tokyo, said: "It's hard to expect consumption to be a driver of growth,". He added that "You see many stores are cutting prices because they can't sell their goods."
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CBO Speculates US Budget Deficit Could Surge to $693B The Congressional Budget Office stated via its analysis report last Thursday that the US government is in danger of fully depleting its cash reserves as it scrambles to pay all of its bills before October 2017, particularly if the Congress heightens its federal borrowing price ceiling. The CBO also warned that the country’s deficit could balloon up to $693 billion if not addressed properly. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has long since been appealing to US policymakers to increase the debt limit without any kind of conditions whatsoever before Congress postpones itself for a summer recession starting this coming July 28. Conversely, the US Treasury Department has been utilizing cash conservation procedures in order to cope with the US government’s accountabilities since last March 2017.
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China Factory Accelerate In June, says Caixin Factory activity in China improved in June as company reports came in slightly stronger as new orders and number of productions heightened. The Caixin Purchasing Managers' Index accelerated to 50.4 for this month in comparison with 49.6 result in May, based on the figures from the poll of IHS Markit released on Monday. As expected, the readings declined to 49.8, a score greater than 50 suggests an expansion. New orders grew marginally at its fastest pace since March. This resulted to an upsurge in the manufacturing with a marginal rate in June.
Provided jobs had lowered down last month which indicates that the percentage of job shedding abated on its modest pace which is the most sluggish three months ago.
The purchasing activity grew in the second quarter, however, corporations deal with a leery attitude on inventories.
Output charges and input costs boost at end of Q2. Having said that, inflation rates showed a slackening performance since the earlier months of 2017.
The customer demand was relatively subdued that put pressure on the optimistic tone against the 12-month business outlook, along with its weakening confidence on its six-month low in June.
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EU-Japan Formalize its Partnership on Thursday Two of largest countries in the world, Japan and the European Union is scheduled to make an agreement and sign a free trade deal on July 6, Thursday. As both nations expect for an unfavorable response when the United States deals with protectionism under the Trump administration.
It was already confirmed on Tuesday that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will go to Brussels to meet with the leaders of EU institutions. The European Council stated that "Leaders are expected to announce a political agreement on the EU-Japan free trade agreement."
This could be considered a brief and final settlement to iron out the entire complications between EU and Japan, the European officials further mentioned on Tuesday that there were still some major issues needed to resolve prior the EU-Japan summit on Thursday.
Since Abe already confirmed his attendance, it only indicates his certainty about the agreement and willing to inscribe his signature as well as to put pressure towards trading negotiators in order to ensure partly an outline of the deal regarding the introduction on each other’s markets. And this includes the European farm produce and Japanese automobiles which are considered the most delicate areas.
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China’s Economy Slowed Down in the Second Quarter The economy of China could possibly weaken once again in the second quarter of 2017, slowed down by the slight tightening of the monetary policy of the government polled by China economists, Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News.
Most of the respondents mentioned that the property market failed to advance unlike before and pointed out that the economic decline will become more evident from July to the end of December.
As indicated in the survey, the average estimate of the economists for the gross domestic product of China will rose by 6.8% in Q2 this year, with marginal easing from the expansion on first quarter at 6.9%. The official figures are scheduled to be release on July 17.
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Eco Watchers’ Index of Japan Increased Forecasts The business confidence index, associated with workers whose jobs are delicate towards the economic situation of Japan, had increased in June for three months in a row. This is because of the advancement in the retail sale as shown in the government statistics on Monday.
The diffusion index of sentiment regarding the present economic conditions which is so-called “economy watchers,” including restaurant employees and taxi drivers, gained 1.4 points from May reaching 50.0, as stated by the Cabinet Office. The administration added that these figures were the highest recorded since December.
While the leading economic indicators in the approaching months surged and reached 50.5, higher by 0.9 points. The government was able to maintain its initial assessment for the second time around, claiming that the economy had continuously improved.
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EU Leaders Urge Germany to Increase Expenditure The economic leaders of the European Union held a meeting on Monday in Brussels, citing that euro countries with huge growth to heighten spending. This is an attempt to convince Germany to step up its public expenditure and to bolster its economic bloc.
Germany is anticipated to grow by 1.8 percent this 2017, as indicated in the estimate of the International Monetary Fund, while the trade surplus continued to rise.
The stable development of the German economy was linked with the same advancement in government expenditure with a 0.8 percent record on fiscal surplus in 2016.
A group of finance ministers was going to discuss at their monthly meeting about the fiscal stance of the EU in 2018 since some urged to influence the budgetary decisions of the 19 EU-member states.
The effort of the European Commission to make a slight development on fiscal policy for the entire euro area within this year was fulfilled by the German opposition, however, dropped afterward.
Prior the discussion on the 2018 policy, the Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici claimed that the logical basis of fiscal stimulus remains despite firm growth in the euro area.
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Italy’s Industrial Output Rose by 0.7 pc in May The industrial production of Italy had rebounded in May which gives hints that the growth of the economy till the end of the year may result to an equal or could even jump higher to the pace recorded during the first quarter.
The production rose by 0.7 percent since April after it dropped on the adjusted 0.5 percent as presented by the Rome-based statistics agency, Istat on Tuesday. While the median estimate of Bloomberg with 21 analysts who answered the survey showed a 0.5 percent increase. The industrial output gained 2.8 percent two months ago according to the yearly and compensation adjustment.
The upward revision on GDP during the Q1 in 2017 boosts confidence that the third-biggest economy of the euro area will improve.
The manufacturing index surge in an unexpected way during the month of June, hence, the consumers become more optimistic despite the unemployment rate escalated to 11.3 percent shown in the recently released labor-market data.
Istat further mentioned in a separate report that their main indicator reflects a “positive outlook for economic activity in the next months”.
Moreover, the International Monetary Fund increased its economic outlook for Italy in 2017 which is 1.3 percent versus the earlier forecast of 0.8 percent. The organization added that they anticipate a slight growth of 1 percent from 2018 up to 2020.
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Singapore GDP Rose 0.4% in Q2 Obviated from recession The economy of Singapore rose for the second quarter as it narrowly missed the recession as the engineering industries remained strong with high demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment. The economy rose to 0.4 percent in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter and based on seasonally adjusted basis according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry.
It dropped to 1.9 percent in Q1 following the first revision in the first quarter and further declined to the former assumption of a 1.3 percent contraction. Despite the median forecast poll in Q2 declined by 1.1 percent, it is still on track to the overall forecast for the city-state progress.
The Gross Domestic Product rose 2.5 percent in the second quarter compared last year which was kept the same even after revisions and lower than the 2.8 percent growth. An economist described this as “softer than expected” since the construction has been weak and a slight easing from the manufacturing sector could offset services. At the same time, analysts are skeptical on the country’s sustained growth being electronic dependent and expansion of services may countervail any moderation.
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Singapore Export Soared For The First Time In June Singapore’s export data upsurge more than anticipated at 8.2 percent in June compared to the preceding year according to the trade agency International Enterprise Singapore on Monday. This is envisaged to further rise by 4.1 percent. However, it slumped by 2.7 percent in June after reaching 9.4 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis. The poll forecasted a 2.1 percent fell in June.
Domestic exports in the non-oil category escalated for the first in two months in June due to a large demand in electronics. It augmented by 0.4 percent as it was revised from last year. On the other hand, exports from the electronics division soared to 5.4 percent in June with 5.4 data year on year which has been the primary boost of trades in the past few months.
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Forecast of Fed’s Easing of Balance Sheet to Raise Rates on Q4 The U.S. Federal Reserve intends to curtail its balance sheet estimated $4 trillion or more in September according to the Reuters poll. It still in the track of what the Fed hinted in the past few weeks despite there is no congruence when it comes to inflation which is deemed to be essential as it could influence the future interest rate hikes.
Last month, it is predicted that Fed would raise its rates by September but this was recalibrated and moved for another month with the outcomes of the latest polls saying that fed funds rate would increase by 1.25 to 1.50 percent by the end of the year. Also, the financial market is positioning only 43 percent probability of 25 basis point rate hike for December which is currently high considering the weaker U.S. inflation data.
As the Fed is being idle regarding its rates, about two-third of economists are expecting the central bank to ease up its bond portfolio in September and only a few foresee the central bank to loosen up its plan on July 25 and 26. Predominantly, they are saying the Fed will hold out on monetary policy at the meeting.
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Loose Monetary Policy of ECB Proposed by Villeroy The European Central Bank is in the process of curbing inflation to attain the two percent inflation target but ECB policy maker Francois Villeroy de Galhau pointed that a monetary easing is still needed. He said that the risk of deflation has been cleared despite the fact the target inflation is still a long way to go. Thus, he concluded that an “accommodative monetary policy” implying that their decision is relative to the economic condition of the economy moving towards the target rate.
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Higher than Expected UK Retail Sales in June -ONS According to the latest reading on the strength of the UK consumer, it shows an optimistic stance. As shown in the most recent retail sales data issued by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the sales increased by 0.6 percent in June, exceeding expectations of 0.4 percent while there is a 1.1 percent decline in May.
Increased in the area of spending, except in fuel products, were recorded with the largest expansion in sales particularly in household goods stores. While shoes and clothing performed better as well.
The clothing sales in some parts of the United Kingdom came in above average in June, however, the north of the border was failed to boost.
Based on the figures presented by the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) earlier this week, it indicates a total increase in sales by only 0.2 percent in June while the sales for non-food items fell by 4.2 percent.
The quarterly trend in UK created by ONS shows that retail sales surged by 1.5 percent in the three months to the end of June, that eliminated the 1.4 percent downturn during the Q1 of 2017.
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RBA Maintained its Rates Amid a Global Rate Hike One of the top central banks stated that the interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia will set to be kept at a record low for some time but some hawks push the currency to drop from a two-year peak. The rate hike was canceled out following the increase of interest rate to 0.75 percent in the previous week according to the deputy governor of Australia. She noted that the RBA doesn’t need to raise their rates when other central banks in the world did which opposes the recovery of the Australian currency after a rise in mining investment for a decade halted. The development of the world economy may be beneficial for the country but it works against the currency.
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Technological Advancement Impact to Monetary Policies Development in the Information Technology sector and rising adaptability of the labor market in the past years has unsurprisingly curb inflation which could significantly affect monetary policy according to the ECB Executive board member Yves Mersch on Monday. He mentioned that advancement in logistics allowed the growth of value chains and e-commerce globally. It has improved the transparency of pricing domestically and across countries.
These modifications in labor sector could indicate that inflation occurs at a quicker rate with a lower employment in the past that affects the relationship between employment and wage growth and eventually affect the monetary policy. Hence, Mersch points out how improvement in technology reacts to “shocks”, the transition from the exchange rate movement into inflation and its influence from the local community towards global advancement and rise in prices.
These raises concern on the efficacy of ECB’s policies to bring back its price growth to its target. Hence, actions are planned for long-term financial management to meet the obstacle come along the way. Although, these policies are deemed to be unnecessary when conditions stabilize.
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South Korea Growth Outlook Revised to 3 Percent in 2017 The growth forecast of South Korea for 2017 was changed on Tuesday pledged to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy that would boost employment. The projected data is an expansion of 3 percent which is already the quickest since the 3.3 percent three years ago. The latest was revised was higher from the previous 2.6 percent and the Bank of Korea outlook of 2.8 percent.
The rise in global demand of goods supporting growth in the latter six months of the year has progressed which includes fiscal spending worth 11 trillion won ($9.85 billion) as the additional budget on July 22nd. There is high hopes that this would raise growth by 0.2 percent this year as the country’s potential growth rate of 3 percent which seems possible as the government implements reforms towards “consumption-led growth” according to the finance minister.
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The current Money Fall contest has already started on July 31, 2017 and will end on August 4, 2017.
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Winners for the week July 10 to July 14, 2017.
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GST Weighed on the Economy of India The status of businesses in India has suffered the worst scenario during the 2008 financial crisis, considering the rise in sales tax extensively that rattled the supply and distribution chains after months of implementing the cash ban on roiled markets by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Based on the report issued on Thursday, the Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index shrink from 52.7 in June to 46 in July while the sharpest fall was March 2009. Activities in the services industry also decline to 45.9 from 53.1, which is the lowest since September 2013, after the data revealed the manufacturing had extremely dropped since 2009. A reading that is less than 50 reflects contraction.
According to a report, the principal economist at IHS Markit, Pollyanna De Lima said, "Private sector activity dipped for the first time since the demonetization shock" and "most of the contraction was attributed to the implementation of the goods and services tax and the confusion it caused"
The mentioned data served as an indication of the underlying weakness in the country. On Wednesday, the Indian central bank decreased its interest rates to the lowest since 2010 and appeal to the government to boost projects due to "an urgent need" to improve private investment.
Most likely, companies are convinced that the outlook will become positive as the ruling of GST (Good and Services Tax) are being clarified, De Lima said.
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Oil Price Up Amid High U.S. Demand and OPEC Supplies Oil prices increased on Thursday because of the narrowing of the U.S. market as well as the large supply from OPEC producers that have a greater impact in the overall sentiment. The benchmark for Brent crude increased by 20 cents per barrel at $52.56 while the U.S. light crude up by 20 cents at $49.79. A high demand in the U.S. has pushed the price higher. Statistically, the recorded gasoline demand was 9.84 million barrels per day (bpd) for last week and a decline in commercial crude inventories worth 1.5 million barrels to 481.9 million barrels which is much lower than the barrels recorded last year.
Members of OPEC and other producers such as Russia pledged to limit the output by 1.8 million bpd until March next year to support price and lower inventories. Yet the organization reached a record high of 33 million since July which is higher by 90,000 bpd from the previous month according to the Reuters survey.
It seems that the oil industry in this era has become accustomed to low prices and function in levels that would have been impossible before as reflected in the field.
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ForexMart Won as Best Forex Newcomer 2016 ForexMart was recognized as the best young company of 2016 year in the field of financial markets activity according to the business publication Global Business Outlook, having won a new award in the nomination "Best Forex Newcomer 2016".
Global Business Outlook Awards – the annual international award which recognizes and rewards businesses, both private and public, showing impressive innovations and progressive strategies in business activity at various economic industries. The new award, received by ForexMart, proves the high professionalism level of its specialists and quality of the offered services. And surely it reflects the highest degree of customer confidence. The award «Best Forex Newcomer 2016» from the authoritative British edition is a great distinction in a highly competitive market.
ForexMart President Ildar Sharipov is thankful for the award commenting:
«We are proud of getting this important and significant award and very thankful to our clients for their firm trust. This new award is a symbol of ForexMart’s excellent service that brings clients the complacency and security they need in the volatile forex exchange market. We always aim to provide our clients with the most advanced technologies for successful trade, without forgetting about safety and comfort of our interaction. We are planning to develop our services further, helping traders and partners to remain at the top of financial success».
ForexMart continues to make progress, creating and improving optimum, convenient and safe conditions for trade. Receiving of this award – is a significant achievement, indicating that ForexMart and its clients are on the right path - the path to success!
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The current contest has already started on August 7, 2017 and will end on August 11, 2017.
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Economic Calendar (Tuesday, August 8, 2017) Know what will happen next in the financial markets with ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar.
ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar is a real-time, customizable, and multifunctional, forex tool that allows traders to be updated with the latest and most relevant market events. All information that could be potentially impact your trading will be listed and analyzed here.
A trader that knows more, profits more. Use ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar and become a better trader today.
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U.S. Job Openings Soared to 6.2 Million in June There are about 6.2 million jobs available in the U.S. as companies are searching for new employees. The number of job openings rose to 417,000 for private sector while there are 44,000 postings for government vacancies including state and local government as stated by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Labor department. Since April 2015, the jobs data has started to rise during the recession as it moves over the years.
Although, the job vacancies varies for every industry. In particular, those job opening includes education and health-services related industry, and professional and business services which have significantly increased in openings compared before the recession.
The report implies the stagnant hiring situation despite a surge in job openings. This has been happening for years and has risen fastly while the actual hiring has been flat since 2014.
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The current Money Fall contest has already started on August 14, 2017 and will end on August 18, 2017.
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Britain Retail Sales Slow Growth in July The retail sales growth of Britain has slowed down in July which is already anticipated following a strong second quarter. Most shoppers lessen their purchases that are majority to be goods other than food which worsens the decline in consumer demand because of higher inflation.
The statistics show a dropped of 1.3 percent year-on-year of the retail sales growth in volume terms which is lower the 1.4 percent increase in the forecast by economists according to a poll from Reuters. The annuals sales growth has been the slowest since November 2013 with a recorded figure of 1.8 percent.
On the other hand, wages in the second quarter were 0.5 percent lesser in real terms compared to 2016 which has been one of the largest decline since 2014. It is predicted that the consumer price inflation will rise by 3 percent in October compared to the current value of 2.6. An economist described the inflationary effect following the decline of sterling to diminish next year which could speed up the sales volume growth.
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Japanese Trade Surplus Decline in July as Exports Rise The merchandise trade surplus in Japan reduced lower than the anticipated in July while the growth of exports and imports gained double-digit percentage. According to the Ministry of Finance, the trade balance came in at ¥418.8 billion ($3.8 billion) last month, after the ¥439.9 billion surplus in June. The country was able to maintain its trade surplus in five of the last six months.
Exports rose at annual rate of 13.4% in the previous month, after a 9.7% increase in June. On one side, imports grew by 16.3 earlier this year, next to 15.5% expansion a month before.
Tokyo reported that the trade surplus last month accounts to ¥337.4 billion ($3.07 billion) based on a seasonally adjusted basis, as the surplus prior that month is ¥81.4 billion ($740.6 million), according to the official figures released.
The Japanese economy showed its highest level of economic growth in more than two years, despite the external demand decrease the GDP by 0.3 percentage point. This is considered significant as the economy tend to depend on exports to resume expansion. Japan’s economy increased by 1% versus the previous quarter and surge by 4% yearly. The development occurs every last six quarters which indicates the longest duration after 10 years. Moreover, exports from the world’s third largest economy are projected to continue its rise due to the momentum attained by the global economy. As imports also have the potential to boost because the domestic production mounted.
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The current Money Fall contest has already started on August 21, 2017 and will end on August 25, 2017.
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More Jobs in South Korea; In-depth Plan to Counter Rise in Household Debt South Korea will implement an extensive plan in September that targets the rising household debt as stated by the country’s finance minister on Thursday. He also stated that concern regarding the household debt could not be fixed in a short-period of time. His rhetorics came out the day after the household debt data has been released as the mortgages also continue to increase in the second quarter but a slower pace contrast to the first quarter.
The most recent report from the central bank states that the household debt persists to rise worth 1,400 trillion won in the second quarter. This data was published following the implementation of financial restrictions in the last month to curb the overheated housing market. Some of the cities including Seoul was labeled as "overheated speculative districts" to limit money borrowers. However, homeowners shell out higher capital gain taxes needed in selling their houses.
On the other hand, the government intends to boost employment by allocating 12 percent focused on job creation in the budget for 2018. At the same time, the minimum wage will also be increased to make sure the people are given proper income as part of its attempt to raise the income of regular people. Primarily, the goal is to secure household gains through higher earned income.
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Economic Calendar for August 25, 2017, Friday Know what will happen next in the financial markets with ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar.
ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar is a real-time, customizable, and multifunctional, forex tool that allows traders to be updated with the latest and most relevant market events. All information that could be potentially impact your trading will be listed and analyzed here.
A trader that knows more, profits more. Use ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar and become a better trader today.
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The current Money Fall contest has already started on August 28, 2017 and will end on September 1, 2017.
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Mexican Second Stock Exchange Starts Operation In 2018 The second stock exchange, Institutional Stock Exchange that is more commonly known by its Spanish acronym called as BIVA, in Mexico target commencement date of operations by the start of 2018 according to the new exchange president on Monday. It hopes to get the existing market in the second top economy of Latin America against the Mexican Stock Exchange also known as BMV or BOLSAA.MX.
The president of BIVA sees the prospect in the new public offering from companies with an annual sales ranges between 500 million pesos ($28 million) and 21 billion pesos ($56 million). They are said to be supported by the technology from Nasdaq which is the second-biggest U.S. exchange and accessed by more than 70 markets worldwide.
It is predicted by the president of the financial infrastructure provider, CENCOR, that the volume of publicly traded companies in the country will significantly increase as much as 30 percent to 200 percent in three years time while the daily volumes could rise close to 50 percent to 20 billion pesos in Mexican stocks.
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Brazilian Economy Increased nearly in Q2 The economic growth of Brazil slightly slowed down in the second quarter, as polled by Reuters’ economist on Tuesday. Despite the increase in consumer expenditure that indicates recovery from the depression 100 years ago. While the GDP of the country would likely pick up to 0.1 percent in the quarter from the first three months of 2017 in the rear of seasonal adjustments, as shown in the median forecast made by 34 analysts.
According to projections, the quarterly drop ranges from 0.3 percent to 0.7 percent growth, linked with the prediction of Banco Santander which is a highly accurate GDP forecaster, but growth is not expected at all. The survey underlined both the possible blow and feasible support for policymakers and investors upon the publication of data on Thursday 9 AM (1200 GMT)
Moreover, the GDP of the largest economy in Latin America declined by 8 percent amid Q4 in 2014. The end of the fiscal year 2016 is the greatest recession for the country since the last recorded in 1901. Inflation was initially seen to escalate but slumped to its lowest level in eight years with a faster pace than anticipated. This influenced policy makers to trim their target for annual inflation. The central bank of Brazil also cut their interest rates by 500 basis points since October by which eventually held some impact as stated by economists.
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