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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The last week end was very rich on the macroeconomic statistics. The EUR/USD came under pressure amid the positive macroeconomic data from the United States. The Non-Farm index came significantly better forecasted medians at 288 thousand, besides the upwards revised data for May and April. The overall unemployment rate was also declined by 0.2% to 6.1%, as the hourly wages were increased by 0.2%. Such the strong data point us to a strong U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and now the Fed should decrease pessimism about the prospects for economic development.

The single European currency selling was caused by ECB President Mario Draghi, who said that the low interest rates in the euro area would remain for a long time. As a result, "bears" took control under the situation.

After the negative data publication on the service sector PMI index for the UK in June the investors decided to take profits on long positions. However, we saw a strong decrease in the GBP/USD on Thursday. Despite the positive statistics from the U.S. labor market - the "Bears" were able to push quotes only to the level of 1.7104, after which there was a technical rebound. Sales in the euro / pound cross - course, which set a fresh level for at least the past 20 months, were supported by demand for the British currency against U.S. dollar.

The "Bulls" have made triumph on the USD/JPY for three consecutive days. The positive release non-farm cheered the participants to open the long dollar positions. Against this backdrop, the dollar/yen was able to overcome the figure 102 and consolidate above the resistance level of 102.16.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The single European currency has collapsed against the dollar as it was under the double pressure. Less strong impact on the euro was provoked by the M. Draghi statements that the regulator is ready for the "unconventional measures" if it appears that the annual inflation rate in the euro area will remain at a low level more than it was expected. The second pressure source had a much stronger impact – the information about the strong jobs growth in the U.S. labor market has caused the European currency sharp falling.

The sellers managed to break below the rising trend line of 1.3610 at the high volume and thereby exit the uplink direction in which the trade lasted four weeks.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

We have a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downwards. The cloud has stooped growing and is changing the direction.

The downward movement will be until the price is below the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.3570. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 1.3520.



Pound (GBP)

The British pound continues to demonstrate its stability and maintains its position near the high levels reached earlier. The latest news impacted the currency. However, the pressure on sterling was of transient nature and as a result the "cable" closed the trading against the dollar by the almost opening prices - with only minor losses.

Currently, the price is trading above intermediate resistance level of 1.7165, which is now managed to break up. Together with the level breakthrough the buyers failed to update this week maximum level of 1.7177

The price is finding the first support at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7115. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7220, the next one is at 1.7265.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is horizontal, the Tenkan-Sen is directed upwards. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 1.7220. We do not exclude a corrective bounce to 1.7115.



Yen (JPY)

The Japanese currency showed the strongest fall against the dollar among majors. The messages from the U.S. labor market helped the pair to overcome the strong technical resistance levels to rise almost to the previous month maximum. In terms of prospects the yen decrease will be resumed under the U.S. statistics impressions influence.

The key turning moment was the downward trend line breakout of 101.95. The trend break occurred at the volume that in the longer term points toward the continued growth.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23.

The price is above the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Tenkan-Sen is directed upwards, the Kijun-Sen is horizontal. The cloud is directed upward.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The break of 101.90 was at high volumes, this break opens the way to the next resistance located at 102.70. Still we believe there will be the roll backs to 101.60.



Franc (CHF)

The manufacturing sector activity expansion continued in Switzerland in June, as it showed the report prepared by Credit Suisse. The analysts attribute the activity increase with export sales, which are supported by the regulation of the euro against the franc by the SNB.

The U.S. June labor report publication supported the dollar, pushing it to grow. The U.S. Department of Labor message was clearly encouraging for the "bulls" on the dollar. The Non Farms increased by 288 thousand in June, not by 215 thousand as was expected, and the results of May and April were revised upwards to 224 thousand from 217 thousand and 304 thousand against 282 thousand, respectively. The unemployment level fell in June, despite the fact that this parameter changes were not expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8880. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is in the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, we have a weak buy signal.

The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to long to 0.8950.




 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The Euro market is in a narrow range against the liquidity backdrop. From the published macroeconomic statistics we can highlight only the orders volume in the German industry. The index went much worse forecasted medians at - 1.7% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in the capacity utilization. This in turn is a negative factor for the European region as Germany is the Eurozone locomotive.

The business activity index in the Germany construction sector in June fell to 15-month low which was due mainly to a fall in new orders. The ECB representative Noyer said that the ECB was ready to take all necessary measures to achieve the inflation level of 2%.

The most important event in the USA will be the last Fed meeting protocols publication on Wednesday.

The sales in the EUR/GBP cross-course support demand for GBP/USD not allowing the "bears" to take a technical correction to the short-term overbought background. After the British currency price drop to around of 1.7030 last week - the "bulls" are back on the market and are willing to open long positions.

The investors took profits in global equity markets after a sharp rise during the week. In this regard as well, we have seen the partial long positions closing on the USD/JPY, which led to a small correction after upside quotations growth for 3 days in a row.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Last week session the euro selling was continued, as the single currency recorded losses against the "greenback", while were less ambitious than the previous day. Obviously, the emotions caused by the U.S. Labor Market report publication already influenced the euro/dollar rates and the ECB M. Draghi statements that the preparations for the quantitative easing is underway launch work now. This may cause the unconventional measures introduction to stimulate the economy and, consequently, influence a prolonged impact on the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.3610. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.3570 that could lead to the south trendline movement.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continues to show a resistance to all the news coming from the outside market. Last Friday the sterling closed trading on opening prices against the dollar after a multidirectional consolidation in a narrow range. The pound support continued to provide good results for the economy, as evidenced by activity indicators, published on the week. PMI in all economy sectors - manufacturing, construction and services, had recognized that recovery, as new construction recorded a growth spurt.

The British Pound continues to actively grow up, breaking on its way the temporary resistance. At this point, such resistance is represented by the inclined line of 1.7125, above there is an ongoing auction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels 1.7200, 1.7250.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair is being traded lowering. Obviously, the other day of the U.S. long weekend the short-term investors decided to take profits and even a slight increase in the Nikkei index didn’t push the market to the increase the propensity to take risks. The dollar/yen is likely to grow due to the Central Bank policies polarity of these countries, and also in the "hawkish" statements character from the Fed leaders

The trading is within rectangle levels of 101.30 - 102.70. Another approach to the strong support level of 101.30, which for the six months was knocked the price upwards was fallowed by a bounce.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.60.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

The volumes are decreasing not supporting neither northern nor southern movement. If the buyers get to the mark 102.70 at low volumes we expect a consolidation with a further price bounce upwards.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase. The pair will stay with the support of a positive attitude to the dollar and the market demand for the Swiss currency in the growing euro/franc and declining franc/yen. We expect the June data on unemployment in Switzerland and Swiss National Bank gold reserves.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.8975. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9000.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week the EUR/USD is within a narrow range 1.3575-1.3608. The industrial production releases in Germany and Spain in May showed a significant decrease that confirms the serious structural problems in the European region. Nevertheless, the euro ignored the weak reports and after a moderate price drop - after the American traders coming we saw a technical rebound.

The 10-year bonds yields fell on Monday from 2.64% to 2.62%. Meanwhile, the employment trends index (ETI) in the U.S. Conference Board's continued the growth in June for the second month in a row and rose to 119.62.

The euro rose slightly after four days decrease amid the growing sentiment among the Eurozone investors, who improved after two months decrease, which was due to the ECB's new measures on the economy stimulation and expectations improving for the global economy.

The short positions closing in the euro/pound cross-course put the pressure on the GBP/USD on a background of the empty macroeconomic calendar from the UK and the U.S.

The sales that were observed on the world's leading stock markets, which together with the decrease in the 10-year U.S. bonds yields weighed on the USD/JPY. There wasn’t any important macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the market participant fully copied the trading dynamics for the Japanese stock market.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The single European currency grew slightly against the dollar and actually leveled losses it had last week. The weak economic data from Germany did not stop the euro bulls and as well as the ECB members statements signaling the need to increase the monetary policy easing.

Almost a month the EUR/USD bounces from the level of 1.3595. This level was broken down once, but the breakthrough had not been continued for long. The reverse return above the price level was followed by a strong growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The downtrend is being continued. The target is 1.3570.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound is stable and continues to stay near the high levels that had been reached earlier. The pound fell slightly the other day, but it is due to technical factors that continue to influence the market developments through the strong resistance.

The upward trend was stopped at the resistance level of 1.7175, from which there was a short-term price down pullback. The main rollback target is the support level of 1.7115, which was twice tested for a strength.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The rising trend line is at 1.7115 support that is an additional obstacle.

If the breakthrough does happen the level of 1.7175 rebound is expected. The 1.7175 break will open the way to 1.7200, 1.7250.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen grew up. Obviously, the fact that traders chose the yen was due to an optimism fall on stock markets, as well as due to the U.S. "Treasuries" yield decrease. We remember the BoJ quarterly report, which announced a moderate economic recovery pace and conservation assessment for the all nine country regions.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The price consolidation at 101.60 is a good sign for the price upward rebound. The main target is the level of 101.23.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has not changed significantly against the U.S. dollar and strengthened against the major currencies last week after the unexpectedly strong labor market data. The dollar slightly regained its position against the franc after the pair decreased to the level of 0.8860.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise long positions. The goal is 0.8975. After overcoming the first target buyers can go to the level of 0.9000.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week main event was the Fed last meeting minutes publication. Before the Fed minutes publication the major pairs were in a lateral trend – the investors took a waiting position. The market participants wondered what the inflation debate will bring which had shown a slightly growth above the target level in the last report. However, the FOMC members could not find a single direction on the priority issue - one part of the monetary regulator leadership expressed concern with a stable low inflation, the other on the contrary, expect a more rapid consumer price index growth.

Against this background, we observed the U.S. currency sales against its major competitors, the gold quotations growth and the "bullish" sentiment in the stock markets.

The data showed an unexpected decrease in the UK industrial manufacturing and the industrial production and hinted that the economic recovery may not be as strong as expected. The reports made investors get rid of sterling to lock in profits after the currency rose to six-year high level against the U.S. dollar at the end of last week.

The quotes received impetus from the Japan data published during the Asian session.

The positive Japan payments balance in May amounted to 552.8 billion yen after the April value of 187.4 billion yen, despite the fact that the growth was forecasted only to 170 billion Japanese yen. Some support was rendered by the Eco Watchers data: the optimism index regarding the current economic situation in Japan was in June $ 47.7 against $ 45.5 in May, which can generally be seen as a positive signal.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The important economic data from Europe and other regions absence, as well as minutes of U.S. meetings yield expectations caused the continued range trading on the euro/dollar. The hopes that the activity will return to the market amid the politicians speeches have not been justified - neither speech the ECB’s President Draghi nor his colleagues, members of the ECB Governing Board B. Kerr and P. Pratt did not change the situation. The ECB functionary's statements concerned largely the power centralization topics in the region and its authority strengthening to force EU governments to reform their economies to recovery.

The situation has been changed after the FOMC minutes publication - the euro rose as it became known that the document did not have anything about a possible rate increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form the “Golden cross”.

The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

If the price consolidates above 1.3610 the next target will be the resistance located at 1.3670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The effect on the sterling as well as on the euro had a message from the Fed. During the session the pound was under pressure from the dollar. The pound sales were provoked by the housing prices data from Halifax which showed that the price index fell by 0.6% m/m in June after rising +4.0% m/m previously and Britain Retail Consortium (BRC) report announced the annual fall indicator retail prices continuation which coupled with the price dynamics in the housing market has contributed to the doubt mood, waiting the rate hikes in the UK.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span.

The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The sterling growth gave the buyers the opportunity to get closer to the last week maximum the resistance of 1.7160. The volumes around this level decline, however, due to the fundamental data, the northern trend is likely to continue.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency was under the general market sentiment pressure. Initially, the yen declined against the dollar, on the risks of a monetary policy possible imminent tightening in the U.S., and then grew when the Fed protocols disappointed "bulls" on the dollar and sharply reduced the U.S. "Treasuries" yields. As a result, the dollar/yen trading was closed almost on the opening prices.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price shows a downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The yen strengthening against the greenback is expected in the short term, lowering the price to 101.00 - 101.20.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar on the U.S. currency general weakening, caused by the FOMC minutes publication. The document, in particular, noted that, if the current trends is preserved the economy the FOMC representatives would decide to finish the asset purchases program in October.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to open short positions with the target 0. 8880. This level overcoming will enable sellers to target the level of 0.8850.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

We could see the multidirectional majors movement the other day. The negative ZEW business climate release in Germany coupled with euro/pound cross-course sales cheered the "bears" to open the short positions on the EUR/USD.

The ZEW index fell to 27.1 points in July, showing the lowest level since December 2012. If the investors and analysts look pessimistic at the eurozone's leading economy it means that the region problems are really strong. In the U.S. trading session midst Fed head held the speech in Congress. Janet Yellen still adheres to the loose monetary policy assuring market participants that the inflation rise in the recent months should not be regarded as the uptrend beginning. The investors expected such comments so the pair started selling fast due to Ms. Yellen performance.

The GBP/USD was able to breakthrough the two-week range due to the June CPI index positive release. The June UK inflation showed growth to the level of 1.9% year on year, which triggered the "bulls rally" on the British currency. The inflationary pressures intensified the market participants' expectations on the earlier BoE monetary - credit policy tightening amid the pound significantly strengthened its position in relation to the dollar.

The BoJ head Mr. Kuroda speaking at a press-conference after a meeting on monetary - credit policy said he expected the economic growth return to the positive territory in the 3rd quarter. It was also indicated that the price current growth seemed to be well balanced and there is no reason for a strong dollar strengthening now. After Fed head statements completion we saw the increase in the U.S. 10 - year Treasuries yield, which also supported the moderate demand for the U.S. dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro/dollar remained under the pressure. The euro disorder was provoked by the ZEW disappointing data. The Euro sales were carried out amid the Fed reports. The brief euro buying against the dollar was observed when the retail sales release went significantly worse forecasted medians. In fact, the ZEW Report pointed to the Germany investor confidence drop in July for seventh consecutive month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.3520 breakthrough the way to the support 1.3480 will be opened. Meanwhile we expect a consolidation and a short term bounce upwards.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

Technically, the British returned to the market leaders and became one of the majors on the yesterday's session having made some profit against the dollar. The sterling found support from the newly arrived UK economic data. The economic statistics publication announced the UK inflation accelerating and added the belief to investors that the BoE would be forced to raise rates before the end of this year

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.7160 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.7220.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese currency also fell against the dollar. However, it is worth noting that the yen sales were not as active as they could be in this situation, when the Japan stock market experienced growth and the Fed chief's statements positioned investor optimism on the dollar. Perhaps the reason is the stock market good sentiment lack and resumed U.S. government bond yields falling. In addition, the BoJ decisions could form the pair’s pessimism.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, and the Kijun-sen – horizontal and form a “Golden cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 102.23.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar strengthened after Ms. Yellen said that interest rates would rise sooner if the situation on the labor market improves faster than expected. Nevertheless, the Fed chairman also said that if the economic recovery would be disappointing, the monetary policy would remain accommodative.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start deals to the level of 0.9035.

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The U.S. currency strengthened its position against its main competitors, the dollar DXY basket finished the trading day at around 80.56. Institutional investors actively open the short positions which causes a decrease in the single currency along the entire market. The PPI index in the United States for June showed an increase for 0.4%, which was a pleasant surprise for tarders and confirms the inflationary processes development. That inflation has caused debate within the Fed about raising the federal funds rate as inflationary pressures will play into the "bulls" hands on the dollar. The euro/dollar remained under pressure during the day amid the negative background.


The GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range after soaring the positive CPI data on Tuesday. The National Bureau of Statistics has published several controversial UK labor market reports for May. The unemployment rate showed a reduction to the level of 6.5 with the UK salaries strong reduction as a negative factor for the inflation.

The quotations growth on the world's leading stock markets supported the moderate demand for USD/JPY. The U.S. corporate reporting season in the United States kicked off quite well - all companies announced the results of its activities for the 2nd quarter showed results better than market expectations that support the demand for corporate paper in the world.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro was under the dollar pressure the last session and closed the day with relatively strong losses. Apparently, the market has completed the J. Yellen speech analysis before U.S. lawmakers and finally imbued with the idea that the Fed is close to tighten the policy, while the ECB is heading for further easing.

The strong support level of 1.3570 breakthrough led to working out the next target - the past month minimum level of 1.3520. The level was reached with lower volumes that directly speaks for downward trend relief.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Clound.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3570. After breaking 1.3570 the buyers may go to 1.3610.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound spent yesterday's trading in a narrow sideways range against the dollar and closed at opening prices. The strong employment data in Britain noted the unemployment rate decrease in June to 6.5% from 6.6%, with the significant applications number reduction for unemployment benefits - 36 thousand instead of the expected -27 thousand after 33 thousand in May did not provok the directed activity growth in favor of sterling.

The price consolidation happened at around 1.7140 in the middle of two important levels of 1.7170 and 1.7100

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falls can be continued now. The first target is the level 1.7050. We do not exclude the growth to 1.7220.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar fell against the yen on the last session. The fundamental lack of irritants and political plan left the pair influenced by the sentiment on the stock market and the U.S. government debt which increased activity yesterday.

The resistance level of 101.75 reached at the high volumes stopped the correctional price growth. Due to the short-term decline changes we see the consolidation formation. The price decrease comes as a result of the low volumes.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 100.80 - 101.00. We expect a bounce up to 101.30 soon.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar rose to a one-month high against major currencies, a day after Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said about the raising interest rates possibility before the expected date.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9035.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The instruments showed multidirectional movement at the end of last week.

The euro/dollar was in a narrow consolidation area 1.3517 - 1.3542. The United States released June construction sector index. The data were weak and did not support the U.S. currency. However, the decline in the construction sector is observed as in the United States and in Europe. Only a joyous occasion for investors was the drop in the initial jobless claims in the United States, which reached 302,000. But this was not enough, and traders are not in a hurry to short.

The pound/dollar was partly influenced by the profit-taking shorts in the euro/pound. The pair reached the level of 1.7084 and then made a technical rebound and the pound managed to recover some of the losses. We expect that the "bulls" will buy on a strong reduction, relying on the northern movement continuation.

The dollar/yen strong strengthening is not worth waiting. A southern movement is expected for this instrument. The increased geopolitical tensions helped sell-offs in equity markets, thereby supporting a demand for the yen as a safe asset.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Clound.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.3570, 1.3610.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.7115. After breaking 1.7115 the buyers may go to 1.7160.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 101.00 soon.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9035.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The U.S. currency was able to significantly strengthen its position relative to its main competitors. The EUR/USD was able to hit a new minimum for at least the past five months amid the negative macroeconomic data from the euro area balance of payments in May. The balance of payments current account surplus declined by 2.1 billion euro to 19.5 billion in May. The Institute of Michigan published the USA consumer confidence index in July which could not support the strong demand for the dollar as the data release came out worse than the forecasted median.

The GBP/USD has remained under the pressure amid the institutional investors’ further profit on long positions. We did not receive any important macroeconomic statistics from the UK. But then, after the moderately negative the Michigan Institute report on consumer confidence "bulls" returned to the market and the British currency was able to recover some lost ground.

In Asian trading the USD/JPY dropped, after which there was a technical rebound against the demand from Japanese exporters, as well as the world's leading stock exchanges growth. However, we have not seen strong quotations growth that confirms the strong factor of the investors in the U.S. currency interest absence.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

Overview

The initial European currency reduction was caused by the continued caution amid the geopolitics background as well as the increasing concerns about the euro zone financial system health due to the problems in the Portuguese banking group Espirito Santo that is based on some hearings on the bankruptcy brink.

The euro fall can be continued, of course, if not something extraordinary happens. However, at the moment, the technical factor is on the euro’s side as the euro/dollar fell to an annual minimum which can be given as a strong support.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong support 1.3520. We expect the growth.



Pound (GBP)

Overview

Obviously, the reason for the sales drop was a sterling risk appetite against the backdrop of the geopolitical upheaval. The British currency is still the most profitable among the other majors in the current situation and it was the investors’ natural desire to reduce risk positions.

The false retest of the resistance level of 1.7115 led to the formation of a price’s short-term pullback down. The British pound short-term pullback against the U.S. dollar has not appeared long.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.7050 may lead to a price rebound up. The potential rebound target is the level of resistance 1.7160.



Yen (JPY)

Overview

The Japanese currency declined against the dollar and returned most of the positions won in the previous session, when it was reported about the hit airliner on the border between Russia and Ukraine. It is possible that one of the moments that were supporting the dollar was the fact of the Japanese importers buying at attractive levels for this to which the pair dropped and the others - the profitability States’ "Treasuries" renewed growth.

More than six months, the dollar/yen has been fixing above the strong support level of 101.00.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the upward trend line 102.23.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The Franc fell against the dollar after the euro. The dollar strengthened after The Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen indicated last week that the interest rates may be risen sooner, if the economy continues to recover.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9030.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

23.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs held the narrow ranges against the backdrop of an empty macroeconomic calendar at the trading week beginning. All the week important events are still ahead so the market participants took a wait. The EUR/USD consolidated near the support level of 1.3512, which indicates a positions set by the institutional investors before a further bearish trend.

The national activity index, calculated by the Chicago Fed, attracts the market participants’ interest. However, it doesn’t provide the events course influence. So this time, the index growth slowing in June to 0.12 against 0.16 in May and 0.18 forecast did not impact the investor sentiment.

The German PPI slowed the fall and issued in June -0.7% y/y after -0.8% y/y. The Italian industrial orders collapsed in May by 2.5% y/y growth in April to 6.2% y/y. The monthly report announced the German economy problems as the Bundesbank pointed to a stop in GDP growth in the 2nd quarter.

The British pound has tested the support level of 1.7058, the bulls managed to repel the attack, which confirms our view that the market participants will buy the strong GBP/USD decrease, based on the medium-term uptrend continuation.

After the quotes dropped to the level of 101.06 - the Japanese exporters came to the market which opened the long positions opposing the national currency strengthening.



Euro (EUR)

Overview

The Euro remains under the external events influence, and the given fact that the news background isn’t different in the "killed" information content in the other regions, we can assume the range trading continuation. The EUR/USD consolidated above the strong support level of 1.3520. Then the pair fell to the level of 1.3480 and tested it.

The price is finding the support at 1.3450. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect another retest which will be followed by the price bounce upwards. The potential bounce targets are 1.3520, 1.3570.

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Pound (GBP)

Overview

The general market sentiment spreads its influence on the pound/dollar which closed the trading close to the opening prices against the dollar after the consolidation in a narrow side corridor.

We suppose to see the public sector borrowing continued growth in June to 10.5 billion, after 13.3 billion pounds previously. The large loans and the lower orders could add some pressure to the pound in the current circumstances, in the absence of any support risk appetite with the reason for caution in the increasing geopolitical exacerbations view. The GBP/USD downward trend was stopped at the support level of 1.7050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The third level retest can cause the price bounce to the range of 1.7100 - 1.7110.



Yen (JPY)

Overview

The Japanese yen is not an exception like the euro it is traded in a narrow range and closed the day with small losses against the dollar.

The statistics has published the activity data - the activity index rose in May by 0.6% m/m vs. -4.6% m/m previously in all economy sectors, but this fact had no impact on the market - the yen fell slightly against the dollar.

The stock market and the U.S. market government bonds as usually influence the pair. The USD/JPY corrective gains fell to the downward trend line 101.60.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The volumes which gave the pair a chance to go up to the 101.60 trendline have formed a divergence. The level of 101.60 breakthrough, where the trading is being continued now, opens the way to the level of 102.23.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The U.S. dollar maintained its position against the franc. We didn’t observe the significant changes in the absence of the catalysts in the important economic data trading form. The investors are still very concerned about the geopolitical events in the recent times.

Technically, the USD/CHF stabilized after the reaching the area 0.8990. The resistance at 0.9000 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9035.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise the long positions with the first target - 0.9035.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

24.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to strengthen against its major rivals. The DXY dollar index finished trading at around 80.78. The pair EUR/USD was bearish against the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States publication. The June inflation showed a growth to the level of 2.1% year on year and it shows the growth to the Fed target level for three months in a row. This release only inflames the debates on the earlier interest rates increase by the FOMC which will support the dollar.

The GBP/USD will be under the pressure and the only thing that can cheer up the "bulls" is the strong report from the CBI industrial orders in July. However, this release came out much worse than consensus-forecast and after the USA inflation data we can see the pound sales. Only the pair cross-course restrained the "bears" pressure and did not allow the pound to test the psychological level of 1.7000.

The positive macroeconomic statistics on the inflation and the real estate market in the United States in conjunction with the price increase on the world markets stocks maintained the USD/JPY demand. However, after the European foreign exchange market participant's departure the bullish enthusiasm began to fade as we observed profit-taking on the long positions.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro was the most vulnerable instrument and fell. The euro was pressured by the mood prevailing on the further easing expectations in the ECB policy and the understanding that the European economy is exposed to the greater risks due to the events in Ukraine.

The sellers have not stopped at the support level of 1.3520. The price’s continued consolidation has led to the downward trend continuation. Besides the trading volumes actively support the euro decrease against the U.S. dollar.

The price is finding the support at 1.3420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3420 soon.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The pound left a narrow. Obviously, the market wasn’t in a hurry to take a decision on the pair, expecting information from the BoE last meeting minutes which can show - the power balance change among the Monetary Committee members on the policy tightening issue.

The third retest of the support level of 1.7050 for the past three days shows the sellers’ great interest to continue the downward trend. However, the upward trend is still relevant due to the fact that the retest was followed by permanent bounces up.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7115.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendation

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.7115.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen like the sterling, recorded a small loss against the dollar. The yen decrease in the Asian session amid the Japan rising stock market wasn’t performed well due to the same geopolitical tensions and the renewed U.S. "Treasuries" profitability fall.

The resistance level of 101.60 retest was followed by the volume, but the buyers are not able to continue the dollar strengthening against the yen.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendation

The upward bounce potential target is the level of 101.60. The pair can consolidate in the area of 101.20 – 101.00.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar rose against the Swiss franc. The U.S. currency held the near six-week high against the other major currencies basket after the data showed that the U.S. consumer price inflation rose in June, broadly in line with expectations.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9035, the next one at 0.9060.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9035. After the trend line 0.9035 breakthrough up the way to the level of 0.9060 will be opened.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD was traded within a narrow range during the past days. On the background of an empty calendar macroeconomic the market participants haven’t taken a wait and traded quite sluggish. The 10-year U.S. bonds yields decrease as the important factor for the Forex also acts as a deterrent to continue the bearish trend.

The last BoE meeting publication caused the GBP/USD sale. The monetary regulator statement on "the wage dynamics weakness increases uncertainty about the unused resources volume" refers to the outlook risks for economic growth as the monetary authorities do not rush to raise the interest rates. Against this negative background the traders got rid of the pound.

The absence of macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the United States forced the traders to refrain from the USD/JPY active trading. The world's leading stock exchange decrease also pressures the pair, but then the dollar managed to regain lost ground amid the U.S. stock market rising.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

Overview

It seems that investors decided to take time out and stopped the euro active selling. The euro stayed without changes against the dollar and actually concluded the session at the starting positions. The European newsflow bloc wasn’t rich enough to support the euro as it hadn’t received any support.
The trading session was relatively sluggish. The downward trend is still more than relevant.

The price is finding the support at 1.3420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.3480. If the pair doesn’t bounce from it we expect the fall to 1.3420.



Pound (GBP)

Overview

The yesterday auction started with the euro replacing the British pound, taking the place of the most vulnerable currency. The sterling fell against all opponents after the BoE minutes publication which does not meet the investors' expectations on the quick recovery rates likelihood increase. The BoE announced the all committee members consensus on the current policy maintaining and uncertainty regarding the first interest rate increase timing.

The fundamental data for GBP deployed the upward trend down. The volume crashed the strong support level breakthrough with trendline rise to 1.7050. Then the pair started the level of 1.7000 testing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can go to the support level of 1.6950. After breaking it the pair may go to 1.6900. The bounce upwards is possible to the level 1.7050.



Yen (JPY)

Overview

The Japanese yen held the multidirectional consolidation against the dollar and closed the trading with a minor flaw. Probably, the absence of the express preferences in the stock markets and the U.S. market government debt influenced the pair while the U.S. released any sensitive information.

The price is finding the first support at 101.00, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a non-confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The up ward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 101.80. If the pair breaks this level it may go to 102.23.

Still the bears can return and pressured the pair down below 101.50.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The Swiss franc is trading in a range. The head of Swiss National Bank Jordan said that the franc is still too overrated. The June inflation in the U.S. rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, emphasizing the view that the economy is still improving.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9060.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9035. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD consolidates near the strong resistance level of 1.3476. The Markit Economics published the manufacturing sector PMI in France and Germany. The reports showed the mixed trend. The France figure has been decreasing for four consecutive months, indicating the structural problems presence. The Germany release was better than the forecasted medians signaled to the market that the Germans will pull the whole Eurozone economy. The neutral background and the short oversold euro/dollar pushed "bears" to feel comfortable to take profits on the short positions.

The UK retail sales release went on 0.1% below the consensus forecast, but it was enough to the "bears" to disperse the GBP/USD below the 70th figure. The wages reduction has a strong negative impact on a consumer confidence in the short term developing the negative impact on the inflation. Apparently, the market participants are already tired of the pound high rate and begin to open the short positions in the first successful opportunities.

The Japan and the United States stock markets continue to enjoy a support from the investors which increases the demand for the USD/JPY. Even the negative macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. new buildings sales could not spoil the "bulls" mood - the primary market sales in June fell by 8.1%. But it is difficult to judge the U.S. consumer confidence weakness strength on the one negative report.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

Overview

The single European currency has shown a resistance to pressure from the dollar and could strengthen against its other major opponents. On the week the euro gave the growth to the pound and the yen, but closed almost at the opening prices with greenback. The grown up interest in the single currency was due to an unexpectedly strong data on the activity in the Eurozone economy and its leading countries.

The last week trading on the euro/dollar went below the intermediate resistance level 1.3480. The short-term level break which occurred was false. The price returned beyond the level, continuing to trade in the direction of the downward trend.

The price is finding the support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.3480 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.3360.



Pound (GBP)

Overview

The British pound was a less attractive asset and having continued its decrease against the dollar and other majors last week. The negative sentiment was caused by the BoE minutes and the UK retail sales in June.

The pound has been in the downward trend for more than one week. The strong support level of 1.7000 breakthrough in the long term opened the way to the level of 1.6950 which has not been worked out yet.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 101.60 testing soon. The potential decrease target is the level of support 1.6900.



Yen (JPY)

Overview

The yen also fell against the dollar last week. The yen strengthening amid the Japanese stock market fall in the Asian session was interrupted on the European session. The dollars buying impulse for the yen was given by the U.S. economic data indicated the labor market good trend and the renewed decrease in the U.S. "Treasuries" yields.

The break of 101.60 resistance enabled the buyers to revise the dollar upward to the next level, located at around of 102.23.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The up ward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 101.60 which has already become the support. The approach to 102.23 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the level of support 101.60, 101.00.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The U.S. dollar maintained its position against the franc. The dollar gained a support after the data published last week and showed that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in more than eight years on last week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9060. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar has completed a steady growth against its major rivals. The dollar index DXY basket closed at 81.04. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative macroeconomic statistics from the IFO institute. The July business climate indicator in Germany fell to the level of 108 which is the lowest for the last 8 months. The U.S. States presented a pleasant surprise to the traders - durable goods order volume data exceeded the forecasted medians which confirms the steady upward economy trend.

The "Bearish" sentiment prevailed on the GBP/USD. The UK GDP release came out at the consensus forecast of 0.8% which was not able to support the demand for the pound. The investors expect a faster growth in the second quarter and as this has not happened - the "bulls" had to stay away from long positions opening. The euro/pound cross-course decrease held the bears’ attacks.

The USD/JPY has ended the trading day within a narrow flat. Japan published the inflation data which went on 0.1% better than forecasted median. The oil price rise in June would not let loose the consumer price index. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency has ignored this release and we saw the pair’s symbolic fall.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

Overview

The euro was quietly traded on the low having reached earlier. The euro sales impulse was given by the German IFO institute release which had shown a decrease concerning the trust in business.

The support level of 1.3480 was broken down at lower volumes. The level breakthrough was followed by the price fixing. We expect the downward trend to be continued.

At this time trades come in the narrow descending channel direction.

The price is finding the support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3360.



Pound (GBP)

Overview

The British pound was traded in a narrow sideways range against the dollar and ended the day slightly lower, almost at the opening prices. Obviously, the unsatisfactory UK retail sales results in June, presented last Thursday, continued to put pressure on the sterling and as the technical factors caused the strong support for the GBP/USD supported the impulse.

The British pound has been actively decreasing against the U.S. dollar for the last two weeks. The price fall touched the strong support level of 1.7000, approached at lower volumes which means the downward trend softening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

After the trend line 1.6950 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6900 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

Overview

The Japanese yen was under pressure from the dollar. The Japan stock market optimism which raised the Nikkei on 1.13% supported the pair, but the final result was less impressive - the pair fell and closed the trading day with only a slight increase.

The last week short-break turned out to be a false one. The buyers managed to lift the price above of 101.60 once again

The U.S. dollar corrective strength against the Japanese yen was met by the downward linear trend 102.23. The trend line is quite strong, it has been touched three times and has never been broken.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show ahorizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendation

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 101.00 soon.



Franc (CHF)

Overview

The Franc fell significantly against the dollar strengthening. The dollar index rose to almost one-month high amid the U.S. economic recovery signs

The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendation

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9060. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

30.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs held another session in a narrow range and ended the trading day a bit below their opening. The investors’ inactivity was understandable, due to the news absence that could push volatility to a growth; moreover, the market went into the week waiting period of important events, such as the FOMC meeting minutes, GDP data for the U.S. and the July world's largest economy labor report. This caused a weak trading between predetermined ranges. The news across the United States could not make the investors happy yesterday and their mixed results did not cause any severe reactions which could become the balancing effect result.

The pending home sales release in the secondary market fell in June, with -1.1% m/m due to the expected growth of 0.5% m/m, while the Dallas Fed report issued the opposite trend - PMI in July improved to 12.7 vs. 11.4 earlier.

Japan continued to demonstrate inflation growth in June which was shown by the official data. The price increase largely contributed to the increasing sales tax rates, conducted in April which should help the Japanese authorities to reduce the state budget deficit.

The indicator value was at 3.4% in May. The Tokyo consumer prices rose on 2.8%, slightly higher than the forecast made by Reuters. The observed increase in price is largely due to the sales tax rate increase to 8%, conducted in April.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The Euro stayed almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar and ended the session a bit below it had started the day. Obviously, the negative sentiment is caused by the additional easing expectations from the ECB that still fly in the area. The Eurozone did not release any significant news. We can mention only the Italy manufacturing sector confidence index in which fell to 99.7 in July against 99.9 in June, and made no impression on investors.

The euro has been dropping down for the fifth week. The short-term consolidation development was replaced by the continuing downward trend which in its turn wasn’t supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.3420 can be followed by the price bounce down. The potential target is the mark of 1.3360.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The UK news vacuum and the news expectations from the United States impacted the GBP/USD during the trading day. The sterling did not change the range which had been formed in previous sessions. The pound most likely will continue to "drift" against the dollar due to the U.S. news expectations.

The sellers could update the last week minimum 1.6950 to continue the downward trend. The side corridor formed within the daily chart on the levels of 1.7000 – 1.6960 was broken.

The price is finding the support at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.7000.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The main price target is the support level of 1.6900.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese currency was no exception and also like other majors started to move against the dollar. The stock market activity and the U.S. debt market government gave some strength to keep growing. Moreover the pair got some drive from the traders’ expectations regarding the USA important events that upcoming this week.

The break higher the strong support level of 101.60 was the signal for the rising trend continuation. The bounce from 101.60 level has led to the 102.23 downward trend line breakout.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

Despite the fact that the news had virtually no impact on volumes the 102.23 descending trend line breakout up in further perspective opens the way to the resistance level of 102.70.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The U.S. dollar is strengthening its position against the franc in FOMC next meeting anticipation. The pair is close to the support area at 0.9060 which was the last time tested on the last fall. The Fed meeting records and the July employment report may support the U.S. currency may.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to open long positions with the first target - 0.9090. Once we break above this level we think that the level of 0.9130 will be the next one.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

31.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The market has already shown the directed activity and the U.S. dollar strengthened on all fronts. Apparently, investors "bought the rumor" expecting the U.S. economy good forecasts.

The labor report prophecy affects the pair supporting the dollar growth interest. The data presented yesterday changed the U.S. currency optimism and noted the different trends direction.

The Fed's decision announcement will become the final event which will decide the monetary policy future. The imminent tightening hints add acceleration to the dollar growth as its absence may trigger the stop and reducing correction.

The IMF believes that if the UK inflation grows actively, the new BoE regulations on real estate market won't be effective to prevent the "bubble" formation and the Bank of England will have to tighten the monetary policy sooner than was predicted.

The British economy analysis annual report from the IMF found the current BoE ultra soft policy acceptable, but it should be possible to correct it quickly in case of inflation acceleration. The IMF believes that the "cooling" of the housing market interest rate increase is necessary.

During the Asian session, there were received much Japanese macroeconomic data which showed the unemployment rate within 3.7% compared with the predicted 3.5% and the region retail sales 0.4% compared with the expected 0.8%. This fact pressured the Japanese currency and lifted the dollar.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro fell to new low against the dollar on yesterday's trading day. In the absence of any encouraging Eurozone news for the "bulls" on the euro, the euro has remained under the influence of continuing geopolitical risks, further ECB easing expectations and the rumors about the good U.S. economy results supported the dollar sentiment.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3290.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British currency resumed its decrease against the dollar after two days of sideways consolidation. Perhaps the market didn’t find the BoE lending information enough encouraging which along with very good statistics showed some negative aspects.

The pound was pressured by the U.S. economy strong data expectations and the political impulse related with the FOMC solutions emergence. There won't be any news on the pound so it will remain under the external information influence primarily from the United States.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6860. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.7000.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the level of 1.6880- 1.6900 testing soon. The potential growth target is the level of resistance 1.7000.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pressure on the yen was resumed by the dollar after a short break. The prospect of getting the good reports on the U.S. economy and the risk of hearing the Fed policy tightening imminent probability hints are more influential factors than the fears for worsening the geopolitical situation. The published consumer spending, unemployment and retail sales in June had no effect on the market. The employment and GDP good results will add support for the dollar, but it will mostly depend on the Fed’s information - the "pigeon" plan rhetoric will return the pair to the decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 102.70, the next one is at 102.23. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.00, the next one is at 103.35.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 101.60 breakthrough up the way to the resistance 103.35 is opened.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar touched its highest level for the last seven weeks against the major competitors in anticipation of the U.S. economic recovery. The employment report which is expected this Friday is expected to show the continued employment growth and the Fed's may leave the current monetary policy rhetoric.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar index basket (USDX) set a fresh 2014 high at 81.54 on the back of the U.S. positive macroeconomic data.

The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the positive U.S. GDP data for the 2nd quarter during the day. The index went significantly better forecasted medians of 4% qoq. We should note the significant personal consumption expenditures increase to the level of 2.5%. This releases point to the strong economic growth which created the foundation for the subsequent months. The U.S. Fed meeting outcome brought no surprises and market participants took profits on the short positions, as the result the euro was able to regain some lost ground.

The GBP/USD also remained under the pressure. The pound fully copied the euro trading dynamics because the UK published any significant macroeconomic releases. The FOMC meeting went as expected - the QE-3 program was decreased by $10 billion as 9 out of 10 committee members expressed the view that the current macroeconomic situation was not balanced enough to think about the monetary policy tightening. Only Charles Plosser disagreed with this view, saying that the Fed turned a blind eye to the strong economic growth.

The Japanese stock market, unlike its American and European colleagues shows an upward trend, storming the strong resistance levels. Together with the positive US GDP release for the 2nd 2014 quarter, we have witnessed the "bulls rally" on the USD/JPY.



Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro fell against the dollar under the good U.S. economy data at the time when the own messages have not been able to support the EU economy. The euro support came after Fed sentiment reports to keep the monetary policy soft. This stopped the euro/dollar decline, but did not allow it to get rid of losses.

The euro continues to decrease against the dollar at higher volumes. The trades still go on the descending channel direction which upper bound of 1.3380-1.3400 shows the price corrective growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.3420. If the price falls it will get to 1.3360. The way to the mark 1.3290 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The sterling continued to be under the external information influence due to the lack of UK news and like other majors fell against the dollar the other day. It is possible that investors will continue to analyze the Fed data and resume expectations on the U.S. labor report which is likely to determine the lateral GBP/USD trading consolidation.

The price went up to the trendline at lower volumes which speaks about the downward trend relief. The first 1.6900 mark retest did not bring any positive results for the bears.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6825. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair does not break the level of 1.6860 down we expect the growth to 1.6950.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen was the most vulnerable asset in the foreign exchange market and fell against all the main opponents the other day. Obviously, the U.S. news were the main influence factors in a dispute with the dollar tossed the pair up

The customers managed to consolidate above two strong resistance levels of 102.23 and 102.70. The breakthrough of the last level of 102.70 upward allowed the price to get out of a six-month limit rectangle side.

The price is finding the first support at 102.70, the next one is at 102.23. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.00, the next one is at 103.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 103.00, the next one is 103.35.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The data showed that the United States economy strongly accelerated in the second quarter, but growth is constrained by the Fed indication that the interest rates will remain on the same level.

The sharp dollar rise led to the USD/CHF restoration to the new high in the last six months.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar upward trend is speeding up. However, the market participants stayed away from an active trading as major pairs spent all day within the lateral trend. The EUR/USD has ignored the weak Eurozone CPI for July. According to preliminary data, the inflation was reduced to the level of 0.4% year on year, and the deflation threat becomes stronger and stronger. The only thing that was a honey spoonful in a tar barrel is the unemployment reducing to the level of 11.5%. Nevertheless, the bond market mood are in favor of a further euro/dollar decline - the American and German bonds yield spread widening certainly will support the American currency. Nevertheless, the pair fell at the end of the last trading week.

The GBP/USD came again under attack, losing on the day of 0.2%. The investors are selling the British currency as the States came to the Forex with its positive macroeconomic releases. In addition, we observed the BoE disagreements about the tightening monetary policy which clearly plays into the bears hands.

The weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan did not allow the bears to compensate some lost ground on the USD/JPY. Reducing salaries combined with the rising unemployment in June became the negative factor for the personal use and will slow the GDP’s growth. Japanese stock market sales weren’t able to exert pressure on the USD/JPY - bulls are confident and keep the situation under control. However, the pair decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The short term support level of 1.3375 suspended the single currency reduction against the American dollar. Double-sellers failed to break below 1.3375 to continue the trend steadily downward.

The trading volumes remain in the growing area, indicating the continued downward trend strength. However, the sellers need to break below the current support level of 1.3375 to confidently continue the downward movement. The pair closed the trading week above the level of 1.3420.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential downward movement targets are the support levels: 1.3360, 1.3290.

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.3420 which has already become the support. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.3480.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British Pound continues to decline and set a new 7week low at 1.6821. The pound decrease advances dollar strengthening amid the weak UK real estate market data and BoE official's soft comments.

Three-week pound downtrend gradually fizzles out. The last few days the dollar strengthening against GBP comes at the low volumes. The corrective price growth up may be expected in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6825, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price is going down. Still we expect the growth. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.6950.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Forex traders were disappointed with the low volatility at the market which was started earlier this year. Obviously, there was a self-replicating cycle whereby the pulse absence prevents the new trading range formation that makes many traders to stay away from the market which weakens the impulse.

The last month maximum 102.79 update led to the short-term consolidation above the strong support level of 102.70. Inverse retest level was followed with the lower volumes and in the longer term may serve as a signal for future price growth. Nevertheless, the pair decreased below the level of 102.70.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 103.80-104.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar strengthened its position against the franc in anticipation of the United States labor market data publication. Then the pair went down and closed the trading week below the level of 0.9060.

Investors are now focused on USA initial jobless claims. The economists expect the job growth in July 230000.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9090. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9130.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD trading was within a narrow consolidation. The traders are waiting. The employment release went worse then the median forecasts - 209 thousand new jobs were created in the United States in July, thus the unemployment increased by 0.1%. However, the Non-Farm figure has been above the key level of 200 thousand for 6 consecutive months which tells us about the strong economic growth. Also the hourly wage has not demonstrated any growth that combined with the reduction in personal spending will act as a deterrent to inflationary pressures.

The sales seen in the GBP/USD pair amid the weak macroeconomic statistics, as well as the cross-rate euro/pound strengthening. The PMI manufacturing sector UK shows the reduction third month in a row that has provoked the British pound strong sales against the U.S. dollar and the single European currency. At the moment the quotation fell to 1.6815, but then the consolidation came.

The bears triumph on the world's leading stock markets together with the moderately negative employment release in the United States led the bulls begin to take the profits on the long positions in the USD/JPY after 2 weeks of the growth. At the moment the quotation fell to 102.30, but in this area there was a demand for the U.S. dollar which allowed the bulls to recover some lost positions.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The pair has been in the downward trend for three month and can change the direction in the short term. The current pullback happened when the price broke the upper boundary.

We should also mention the fact that the price left the downward trend at the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement will be continued. The upward bounce potential target is the resistance level of 1.3480. We expect the level of 1.3480 retesting soon.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The GBP/USD the long uptrend turned down. The British pound has actively been decreasing against the U.S. dollar for almost a month. The rebound from the resistance level of 1.7160 was followed by the price’s sharp falling and the two critical supports breakdown.

The last week allowed the sellers to strengthen their position due to the strong support level of 1.6950 breakthroughs and the rising trendline 1.6900. The two strong supports breaks happened amid an increased volume. In the longer term, this means a continued downward trend.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6825, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.6825 which has already become the support. We recommend going short with the first target - 1.6770. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level of 0.6700.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The U.S. dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen has allowed the buyers to break above the downward trend line 101.60 and the strong resistance level of 102.70.

The resistance level of 102.70 break was short-lived. Two day consolidation above the breakout was followed by a short-term break down. The level reverse breakthrough was followed by the increased volume, but at the same time, this breakthrough is not considered as a signal to reverse the upward trend.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 102.23 which has already become the support. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 103.35.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The frank slightly weakened against the dollar. Despite the latest correction that was provoked by the weaker-than-expected data on the U.S. labor market, the dollar strengthened against the major currencies at the end of the last week.

As it became known, in the U.S., the Non Farms amounted to 209K in July vs. 233K and 288K in June. The unemployment rate rose to 6.2% against 6.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9035. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9000.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

06.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

Trading week beginning was a quiet enough. The EUR/USD was within a narrow range of 1.3409 - 1.3431. Then the pair fell to 1.3361. In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics the traders took a pause. Only the moderate euro/pound cross-course decrease allowed the bears to win.

The UK construction sector PMI release showed the decrease compared with the previous month, but was better than the forecasted medians. It should be noted that this figure has been stable for 9 consecutive months being above $60% which proves the UK construction sector positive trend. The market participants took profits on the GBP/USD short positions amid this moderately positive backdrop.

We could see the dollar/yen side tendency during the day. In the second half of the U.S. trading session there was the demand for the U.S. stock market, which supported the pair.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European currency was within a narrow range against the dollar and then the pair fell. Obviously, this "marking time" can be explained by the expectations about the ECB mood and intentions which will be clear after the coming meeting. The market nervousness is still preserved as the further easing probability is high.

The price bounce from the descending channel allowed the buyers to stop the downward trend at the support level of 1.3360. We observed the bounce up from the price level which was followed by a high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The breakthrough of 1.3420 mark will open the way up to the next resistance located at around 1.3480. The mark of 1.3480 retest is more likely to lead to the short-term consolidation.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound became the leader, after it got stronger against the dollar, but also against the euro and the yen. The sterling was supported by the construction sector activity - the PMI index for this economy sector in July fell slightly to 62.4 from 62.6 previously, but was stronger than it was forecast, waited falling to 62.1.

Before the BoE's meeting the market is not likely to risk much to build positions so the pound growth, even if it happens will not be large and long.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6950.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The 1.6900 mark retest is likely to happen during the GBP fundamental data release. If the retest is false, we expect the downward trend continuation. The nearest target is the support level of 1.6770.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen was being traded in the sideways consolidation and was closed at the starting positions yesterday. For a while, we saw the yen increase against dollar amid the continuing U.S. treasuries profitability fall, but by the session end the situation align the instrument and the result turned out to be neutral.

Three false retests of 103.00 resistance level served as a signal for the downward correction formation. The breakthrough of the support level of 102.70 allowed sellers to revise the uptrend line.

The U.S. dollar corrective weakness against the Japanese yen is not supported by the trade volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The sellers cannot break below the rising trend line of 102.23, so it is likely to expect the price bounce up. The potential growth targets are the two marks: 102.70 and 103.00.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar was steady against the major currencies basket after the Friday decrease when the data showed that the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than was expected in July.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short positions with the first target - 0.9035. After fixing below the first target we recommend 0.9000 as the next aim.




 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD is in the bears’ power on the background of the positive macroeconomic data from the United States. The ISM in the services sector came out much better than expected at around 58.7. It should be noted that the rate showed significant acceleration above the 12-month moving average in July. This release, together with the manufacturing sector data indicates a strong economic growth in the United States at the third quarter beginning.

The GBP/USD has a quite weak reaction to the strong report on the UK Services PMI. The bulls stormed the resistance level of 1.6881, but the attempts were unsuccessful. As soon as the sell-off in the cross-rate EUR/GBP traders allowed to finish the day on a positive note.

The battle between bulls and bears in the USD/JPY pair was won by the minimum on the background of the recent sales in the global stock markets which took down Japanese stock market. Even the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States failed to reassure market participants to break through the 103rd figure.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The European currency fell against the dollar, despite the fact that the economic indicators of June and July showed a positive trend compared with the previous period. The retail sales in the euro zone rose in June by 0.4% against the results of May and the data of the second month of spring have been revised upwards.

The single currency against the American dollar corrective gains proved not for a long time. A short-term price consolidation below the resistance level of 1.3430 to which the buyers have come on a heavy volume resulted in the downtrend continuation.

The sellers renewed the minimum of the last week at the level of 1.3385 and fixed below the current support level of 1.3360.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.3360, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.3300.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound has shown a resilience trading and has grown against all its major opponents. However, his achievements with respect to the American "greenback" have been relatively modest, only 20 or so points, although the index of activity in the economy key area – the services recorded a solid growth despite the fact that no changes are expected. This fact supported the British currency.

We should not expect any growth activity, as investors are waiting when the Bank of England should say about the monetary policy prospects.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair is planning to go upwards. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.6950.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen that was rising sales at the first part of the yesterday's session returned to its original positions by the end of the day. The market risk aversion has increased amid the tensions escalating between Russia and Ukraine which is reflected in the stock markets and prompted a return to the yen which is a safe haven.

The American dollar corrective weakness against the Japanese yen was stopped at the support level of 102.23. Short-level tests were followed by the price rebound upwards. However, there was not any upward trend continuation, the buyers failed to raise the price above 102.70.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 102.23 retest is more likely to lead to the consolidation. After that, the trend is expected to be continued upwards.



Frank (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar rose after the Institute for Supply Management said that its purchasing managers index in the services sector grew last month to three-year high 58.7 from 56.0 in June. Analysts had expected the index to reach 56.3 in July.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the day at 81.52. The pair EUR/USD lost 0.15% at the end of last week due to negative Draghi’s comments. Mario Draghi said that inflation will remain at low levels for a long time and the lending companies rates remain weak for the economic growth recovery. The CPI decreased to the level of 0.4% in July.



Bank of England showed no surprise – the monetary policy will remain the same. However, after the meeting bears rushed into the market there was a decrease in the GBP/USD quotations. Traders understand that in the current environment a strong British currency against its major "trading partners" carries risks for the economy as a whole and in particular for the inflation and endanger the earlier-than-expected first increase in the discount rate. The positive macroeconomic data from the United States just added optimism to bears.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The European Central Bank decision was in the range of forecasts - the Eurozone regulator has not announced any changes in the parameters of monetary instruments. M. Draghi’s press conference has not brought no surprises either.

The sellers failed to break below the support level of 1.3345 three times, from which the current price is corrected upward. It should be noted that last week approach to the support level of 1.3345 occurred against the background of high volume.

The price is finding the support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is changing the course. We believe the price will grow. The first growth target is 1.3420, the next one 1.3480.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The pound also fell against the dollar, but unlike the euro it did not show no new lows. The last week main event was the BoE’s announcement for monetary policy prospects. The meeting did not bring surprises, everything was according to the forecasts. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, and fund the purchase of bonds in the amount of 375 billion pounds.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6840, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the price to continue falling. We expect it to reach 1.6700 soon where we expect a bounce upwards to 1.6840.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The pair got the support from a small increase Japanese stock market indices growth, they returned to their original positions that had provoked the fall of the American government bond yields. News from Europe could not have affected the instrument.

The price pullback to the resistance level of 102.25 is a good signal for the continuation of the downtrend. The bounce allowed sellers to test the strong support 101.75

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price resumed the downward movement. The price will decline to 101.60 first.



Frank (CHF)

General Overview

The frank strengthened a bit its position in the growing demand for safe assets because of the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the east of Ukraine, and also after President Barack Obama authorized the point strikes on Islamist militants in Iraq, if they threaten American interests in the country.

The activity production index increased in July to 54.3 points, surpassing its long-term average value of 54.0, according to data prepared by Credit Suisse.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.8990. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendation

The trend has been changed. The price is heading downwards. The first target is 0.9030. Shall the price consolidate at that level it will go further down to 0.8990.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD closed the trading day with the quotations growth on short positions profit taking. The macroeconomic statistics showed a mixed background - the German trade balance indicator came out worse than the forecasted medians while the France industrial production release gave the market a pleasant surprise, showing an increase to the level of 1.3%. The market was full of the euro short positions as traders fully played this technical oversold in the last days.

The UK trade balance negative report cheered the bears for opening the GBP/USD "shorts". The June deficit has increased which is directly related to the British pound strong rate against the dollar and the euro. Against this backdrop, investors dumped the pound.

The BoJ, at its next meeting, signaled to market participants about the Japanese manufacturer's hard times. This negative process impacts on the export process and directly affects the economic growth rate. However, the monetary regulator refused the possibility of short term stimulus volume increasing again. Against this background, we observed sales in the Japanese stock market and the USD/JPY in the first half of the day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro grew slightly against the dollar. Probably after the marks test near the level of 1.3300/20 which the pair visited last time 9 months ago and therefore became the strong psychological support, some investors decided to close the euro short positions and take profit in a geopolitical situation tense. The euro area economy data which could impact the euro were not published besides the Germany trade surplus report that slightly disappointed the market as its result wasn’t good.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The 1.3460 and 1.3485 marks are important strong resistance. These marks retest is more likely to lead to the price bounce down and the bearish trend further continuation.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

If investors see that the BoE in no hurry with the monetary option strengthening the pound will continue falling. The pound may find a support after the employment reports that are going to be published this week, the forecasts suggest the labor market improvement and the unemployment decrease.

The UK GDP second estimate publication is likely to keep in force the previous results and, most likely, will not stimulate a volatility increase, unless we do not have deviations. The break of 1.6810 support was at high volume - that proves the sellers growing strength. In the future, we expect the weekly support level of 1.6710 - 1.6700 testing

The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6840, the next one is at 1.6900.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The weekly support level of 1.6710 - 1.6700 has kicked sellers upwards two times. This level retest is more likely to lead to a consolidation.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen is still in multidirectional movements against the dollar and closed trading at opening prices. The pair was turned up under the pressure as the BoJ meeting results has not announced any changes and the Japan stock market collapse where the Nikkei fell by almost 3%. The "bulls" support for the dollar was seen during the American session when the States stock markets showed the opposite to the Japanese one sentiment - the indices have grown, the market debt price fell.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect a short-term growth at the beginning of this week. The potential growth target is the strong resistance level of 102.60.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar/franc will be traded in the lower range, under the pressure from deteriorating relationship to the dollar and the market demand for the Swiss currency on the pair. The reduction potential is limited by the growing Swiss currency in the EUR/CHF and the Swiss National Bank soft monetary policy

The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.8990. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We recommend the short positions with the first target - 0.9030. After consolidating below the first target, the next target will be the level of 0.8990.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

After several days of silence the Forex market showed a burst of volatility on major pairs. The EUR/USD bears still cannot take the support level of 1.3332 despite the negative macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. The main currency pair is still trading in the mid-range and market participants are saving effort to further the market down.

The GBP/USD fell after the USA macroeconomic publications. The UK unemployment dropped to 6.4%. The Bank of England inflation minutes began on a positive note - the monetary regulator increased its estimate of economic growth in 2014 and 2015. Mark Carney said that the Central Bank expected the wages reduction to 1.25% from 2.5%. It was also noticed that the strong pound limits export growth.

The Japan's GDP for the second quarter showed a decrease of 6.8%, which coincided with the expectations of market participants. The non-state sector consumption in Japan has decreased by 5%. The Bank of Japan noted in its last minutes that they expect the tax burden increasing negative effect weakening. This factor, combined with a growth in the world's leading stock markets supported the demand for pair.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The single European currency showed a multidirectional movement against the dollar and finished the day with small losses. The latest statistics pressed the euro, the only thing that supported the pair was the news from the United States that showed a weak sales in the retail trade.

The second week in a row a strong support level of 1.3340 does not let sellers to come.

The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a rebound, the potential target is the downtrend channel upper boundary 1.3390. The maximum growth target is a strong resistance level of 1.3430



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound was the main loser among all majors at yesterday's session. Sterling fell against the dollar, having lost more than 120 points. The cable fell because of the weak reports: the employment grew, but at the same time, salary growth leaves much to be desired - the average wage in the UK in April-June increased by only 0.6% instead of the expected 0.75%.

BoE’s statements poured "fuel to the fire", they say that the interest rates growth will largely depend on the acceleration of wage growth.

Sellers managed to break below the key support level 1.6710 - 1.6700. The downward trend is expected to be continued, but before that we are likely to see a short-term pullback to the resistance level 1.6700 - 1.6710.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6770.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The pair tends to decrease. The potential target is 1.6640.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. The economic data showed a sharp drop in GDP in the second quarter, still the risk appetite growth on the stock markets in Japan and the United pressured the Japanese currency more. When the weak retail sales in the United States yen rose sharply, but could not keep the trend and very soon came back under pressure.

Negative GDP Japanese yen directly affected the dollar strengthening. Due to the growth of the dollar buyers were able to get out of the descending channel, breaking up the upper bound of 102.30.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.60.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are neutral. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a rebound down. The potential target rebound is a strong support level of 101.60.

If the pair continues growing it will reach the marks 102.70, 103.00 in a short term.



Frank (CHF)

General Overview

Swiss Franc returned most of the ground it had lost the other day. The unexpectedly weak the USA retail sales pressured the dollar. In July, the main figure was 0.0% vs. 0.2% and 0.2% in June. The retail sales excluding autos rose 0.1% against 0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9030. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short positions with the first target - 0.9030. The second target is the level 0.9000.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD could not set a fresh low despite the negative France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP. Economic growth in Germany fell on the background of geopolitics which intervened in the German economy. However, market participants have ignored the weak releases, the euro/dollar managed to strengthen to 1.3407 against the Initial Jobless Claims growth in the United States. However, the bulls growth mostly was not strong enough in the second half of the American trading session, and the euro returned to the previous range.

After the "bear rally" the GBP/USD was within a narrow range. In the absence of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and the USA - sellers have decided to take a pause to evaluate the British currency medium-term downtrend prospects.

Moderate demand for risky assets gave little support the USD/JPY pair. However, the decline of the American dollar against its major counterparts along the entire market (USDX) cooled bulls. The machinery and equipment orders release which came out worse than the median forecast, having shown an increase to the level of 8.8%, instead of the expected 15.5%. This report is a leading industrial production indicator and as we see it is difficult to count on the strong growth of the Japanese industry.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro/dollar behavior was unexpected enough last week. The Eurozone newsflow did not have anything interesting and has not made any impression on the market, at the same time the weak United States employment release caused a sharp euro growth.

The instrument was trading without any changes. Despite the fact that the main trend is bearish, sellers can not break below 1.3340 strong support level for a long time.

The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

It is possible that sellers will try again today to test the mark of 1.3340 strength. And if they break it, we expect a confident continuation of the bearish trend. The decrease potential is the mark 1.3280

Still we should not exclude and growth possibility. The pair looks like going to correct to 1.3450.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound continued falling against the dollar. Obviously, the inflation report and M.Karni’s performance were the main drivers for the pair. After these events the market concluded that the key rate would remain low much longer than expected. To return some loss the pound could after the weak State's economy data release and due to technical levels which showed a strong support.

The second part of the previous week the pair spent in a consolidation at the support level 1.6675. The bounce upwards from this level was not supported by volumes. The current trend remains bearish.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6770.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The level 1.6675 break will allow sellers to reach the support level located at the level of 1.6570.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen trading was marked by multi-directional maneuvers session and fell by the end of trading. The yen can get the support from optimism in the Japan stock market. We do not expect important news from Japan and the yen will remain under the influence of risk appetite and, as usual, the USA economy news.

The third week volumes have been shown a correctional growth rates weakening from the support level 101.75.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.90.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are turning down.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

The price bounced down. The correction has been preparing for several weeks it will be continued to 102.23 and 102.



Frank (CHF)

General Overview

The dollar weakened after the United States Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims increased by 21,000 to 311,000 from a revised 290,000 the previous week.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8970. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.9060.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short position with the first target - 0.9000. After reaching the first target we believe the price to go deeper to 0.8985.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The main competitors of the dollar could regain some lost ground last week. The EUR/USD used the moderately negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States and finished the day up 0.25%. The Michigan Institute consumer confidence came out worse than the forecasted median, at 79.2, showing the minimum value over the past 8 months.

It should be noted that the final index fell below 12-month moving average which may signal a slowdown in the American economy. The July retail sales release also confirms this factor. Nevertheless, the current situation in Europe is much more negative and think about the downtrend change is too early.

The GBP/USD is within a narrow range and even the weak consumer confidence release from the United States could not cheer the bulls to open long positions. Bears reliably keep the current level and this factor indicates a set of short positions by institutional investors, and in the near future is expected to be continued downward.

Investors take profits on long positions in the world's leading stock market which put pressure on the USD/JPY. The USA consumer confidence came out worse than market expectations that together with the yields fall on 10-year Treasuries have caused the dollar demand for.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

Euro fell against the dollar a bit the last trading day. Probably the traders’ sentiment that was formed after the euro area disappointing GDP data for has already been taken into consideration and short-term investors have used data from the United States to take profit. In addition, technical factors presented by a strong support could stimulate the closing of euro short positions.

Eight day consolidation on the historical support level 1.3360 which was formed 2013.11.07, was followed by the price rebound upwards.

The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 1.3485 retest is more likely to lead to a short-term consolidation.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The British pound has been "trodden" in one place and closed against the dollar on the opening prices. Investors have not been impressed by the fact that the second GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter was revised upwards to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% y/y.

The price broke the level of 1.6710 at high volumes. After the support level break down the price shows a weak volatility.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6640. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6840.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the resistance level of 1.6770 retest. After that the price will bounce down to continue the further bearish trend to 1.6640.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The dollar/yen is slowly growing up having finished the day with positive results. The reason for the buying was weak USA economy releases which caused the US government bonds growth which consequently reduced their profitability.

The buyers tested for strength the strong resistance level of 102.65 second time over the past three weeks. This mark is an insurmountable barrier which has been bounced buyers down for six months.

The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.90.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The Cloud is neutral.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is descending.

Trading recommendations

To continue the uptrend the bulls need to update the maximum of the previous month - 103.08. In this case, the price is expected to go to 103.90 - 104.00



Frank (CHF)

General Overview

Index assessment of the economic situation over the last year has grown to seven compared to the first quarter (5). The consumers' opinion about a successful time for large purchases has been improved, that is proved by the corresponding index increase from 1 in the previous quarter to 8. Nevertheless, the Swiss noted the deterioration of its financial position for the last time during the second quarter which resulted as the reduction of the corresponding index to -7 from the previous value -5.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards. The Cloud is descending.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.

Trading recommendations

We still recommend going short. The mark 0 9030 is the first goal. After overcoming the first target the price can go to 0.9000.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American dollar has significantly strengthened its position against majors - the dollar basket index (USDX) updated the current year maximum values and ended the trading day at around 81.87. The positive macroeconomic data from the United States on the construction sector and inflation cheered the bears to open the short positions in the EUR/USD. The released building permits and new foundations showed a significant increase in July which is a positive factor for the American economy. The inflation release came out at a forecasts median, at around 2% y/y, which also fits to the strong economic growth scenario.

The GBP/USD came under a sales wave again, on the background of the negative inflation report. The CPI came in at 1.6% y/y in July. The inflation has been below the target level of 2% for 7 consecutive months which may postpone the rate increase. Immediately after the inflation release publication the pound/dollar has fallen by 78 p. setting a fresh minimum for the 4 last months.

The USD/JPY bullish trend is gaining strength. The global demand on the stock market, combined with the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States supported the American currency against the Japanese yen.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency fell against the dollar at yesterday's trading. The pair broke the strong support level that restrained the price from a falling more than a week, and sat a new local minimum. The reason for the break down was the strong economic data from the United States, reported the housing sector improvement. It is worth noting that the initial pressure on the euro gave the data on its own economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3290, the next one is at 1.3230. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3420.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential downward movement target is the support level of 1.3230.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British currency resumed its decline and has fallen off against the dollar by more than 100 points. The inflation data have the initial pressure on the British sterling, and messages from the United States about the improvements in the housing market supported its sales. The UK inflation fell more than expected in July, which could seriously shake the market participants’ confidence who are awaiting the rate growth.

On the background of the "fundamental data" the intermediate support level 1.6675 breakthrough was held with the high volume formation. The downward trend is still in force, the current price decline came to the descending channel 1.6600 lower bound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.6700.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen also was among the dollar’s "victims". The USD/JPY quotations rose up on the United States economic data, and then their growth was sustained by the States stock market optimism. The economic data from Japan have shown large trade deficit in July, but noted an increase in exports which may be some encouraging factor.

The strong resistance level of 102.90 upward break only strengthens the buyer's intention to continue to trade upwards. However, it is worth noting the fact that such a strong growth was not supported by the trading volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 103.30, the next one is at 102.90. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.70, the next one is at 104.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level of 104.00.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

The dollar continues to grow. It rose to 11-month high against the basket of the major currencies after the optimistic data on the United States housing sector have shown that the economic recovery is gaining momentum.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.




 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency accelerated its growth - the dollar basket index (USDX) finished trading day at around 82.24. The Federal Reserve "Minute" cheered bears to open short positions - the majority of management FOMC members believe that the downside inflation risks have been reduced and the global investment community would wait for the interest rates growth after the QE-3 is over.

The Bank of England has confused its tracks - these are the monetary control last meeting minutes. Mark Carney pointed to possible monetary policy negative effects rapid tightening last week, as well as to the "strong pound" negative role for the export. Two monetary policy committee representatives - Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, voted for a rate growth to 0.25% on 20 August. However, the traders quite sluggish reacted to this event - in the moment GBP/USD reached the level of 1.6677, after which we saw again the British currency sale. The investors still look with skepticism on the pound and therefore the quotations short-term growth is used to increase short positions.

The USD/JPY is growing having gained 0.73%. The negative Japan July trade balance showed a growth that caused the greatest concern on the investors’ part. The Federal Reserve last meeting and its moderately positive minutes also supported the demand for the greenback.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

After the FOMC meeting minutes publication the American dollar strengthened against the major currency pairs. The single currency has fallen by 65 points down. Then it tried to recover the losses.

The trading volumes remain in the increase area with small divergence signs. The pair is being traded in the direction of a narrow descending channel, to the upper bound of which at 1.3290 a corrective rates growth is observed.

The price is finding the support at 1.3230. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3290, the next one is at 1.3360.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3230.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continues to lose positions against the dollar. And, despite the fact that the volume is gradually reduced down, the downward trend is still in force.

There was a short-term growth to the resistance level of 1.6640. The level retest was followed by a price rebound down. At the same time, the sellers managed to come close the downtrend channel 1.6570 lower bound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6500.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The American dollar strengthened significantly against the Japanese yen. The growth rates came to the historical resistance level of 104.00, from which there the rates have been rebounded down by 300 points four months. The price went up at lower volumes to the resistance level of 104.00. Apparently, the price consolidation will be continued. The retest is expected in a short term.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the resistance at 104.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 104.00. We expect a consolidation now.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar general strengthening after the FOMC last meeting minutes publication. The FOMC minutes showed that the Fed still has no plans to raise the interest rates in the near future. The Fed will use the excess reserves as a tool for a change in the interest rate. There is an increasing division between the FOMC members how rapidly the situation on the labor market will be improved. The price could not fix above the level of 0.9130.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.




 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency continued to strengthen against its major competitors on Friday - the dollar index (USDX) finished the last week at 82.32. The EUR/USD lost 0.3% amid the USA Fed Chairman comments in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the continued faster-than-expected employment growth may lead to an earlier federal funds rate increase. It was enough for the bears to push the EUR/USD rate to 1.3320, where traders began to fix the profits. The pair EUR/USD continued to fall on Monday trading.

The GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range of 1.6560 -1.6600. The market participants took a break to evaluate the pound downward trend prospects which we have seen the last 7 trading weeks. Even the Federal Reserve Chief’s speech on economic symposium in Jackson Hole could not push traders to an active trading.

The USD/JPY continued to grow to new maximums after a small technical correction. The bulls have responded positively to the Janet Yellen’s statement about the monetary policy possible earlier than expected tightening. The American dollar was in demand and the price reached the level of 104.20, then investors decided to take some profits on long positions. The pair slightly fell on Monday.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The European Central Bank head supported the idea of the euro further weakening his statements. Draghi’s speech was "dovish". He said that the ECB June easing measures should spur the demand, a weaker euro would support the economy and the European regulator was ready to the policy further softening if necessary.

The price three-week consolidation above the strong support level of 1.3360 was followed by a confirmed breakthrough. The sellers managed not only to break below 1.3360, but also to consolidate under the resistance level of 1.3290. The price updated the current month minimums on the increased volume during the President Draghi’s speech.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3170 soon.



Pound(GBP)

General overview

The British pound was steady against the dollar and closed the session almost at opening prices. There were not any thing interesting from the newsflow, the pound was under the external information influence and the most important driver for the market could be the technical factors presented by the strong support. The British pound trading has been continuing in the narrow downward channel direction for the second month.

The dollar confirmed strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570, which came at a reduced price volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect a bounce upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 1.6640.





Yen (JPY)

General Overview

After the central bankers symposium, the dollar/yen has taken another upward jump, but has been stopped by the strong resistance levels, which resulted in a relatively small increase in the dollar against the yen on the Friday trading basis. This was the bulls’ week final point where the main driver was the Fed’s minutes publication, showing the growth in the policy tightening sentiments in the USA Central Bank leadership.

The resistance level of 102.60 has been an obstacle for buyers during six months, despite the fact that it has made its way up twice. The third level breakthrough, apparently, was the signal for the medium-term uptrend continuation.

The level of 102.65 breakthrough up comes amid low volumes, this allowed the bulls to raise the price to the historical resistance level of 103.90 - 104.00 formed from 2014.04.03.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 104.00. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 104.35.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

Today the debt crisis problem has receded, but the economic recovery stop in the eurozone by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market. In Zuercher Kantonalbank believe that the Switzerland's central bank is limited in decision-making till the ECB will not start raising rates.

The franc also fell against the background of the dollar comprehensive strengthening. The dollar strengthened significantly after The Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that the United States economy was recovering, and added that the situation in the labor market had been also improved.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.




 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The single European currency has collapsed on Monday to the next local minimum against the dollar. The political and the Eurozone economy news did not give the "bulls" any chance for the euro recovery. The reason that caused another euro fall against the dollar could be the M. Draghi’s statements reporting about the possible monetary policy easing next phase beginning. In addition, the Ifo Institute Germany business sentiment report led to the market disappointments where the indicators had recorded the results lower and weaker than expected.


The British pound also opened the week lower against the dollar, but then it was able to return to the previous week levels. Obviously, this fact - the first lost sterling positions return occurred because of the GBP/USD strong technical supports and the absence of disappointing news where the last statistic wasn’t published due to the non-working day.


The yen continues to strengthen against the dollar on the optimism fall in the Japan stock market which may continue if the data on the State's economy do not offer the arguments to buy the pair.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market opening occurred with a gap (the price break). At the time the gap has not been worked out. The short-term price consolidation above the support level of 1.3170 will lead to the price bounce upwards, followed by the price gap overlap.

The gap closing will allow the buyers to correct the price to the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3230. The downward channel upper bound retest is more likely to be followed by the price bounce downward.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.3170 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.3130 will be opened.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound cannot break above the resistance level of 1.6570 for the fourth day. The consolidation below is followed by the sales volumes decrease which suggests the possible price bounce downward.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6640, 1.6700. The approach to these lines may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The two weeks American dollar growth has been stopped at the resistance level of 104.35. The level formed the correctional wave, enabling the sellers to break below the support level of 103.70.

The level of 104.00 testing comes amid the low volumes. The pullback has no any special support from the sellers. And, apparently, the dollar decline against the Japanese yen will be stopped at the next support level of 103.70.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 103.70 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 104.35 growth.



Frank (CHF)

General overview

The dollar could not continue to grow. It was traded at level of 0.9160 which is below the Asian max, while the down side fluctuations were limited by the support level of 0.9130.

While the pair is trading above the broken resistance level of 0.9090, the further growth and the 92nd figure testing possibility remain high. The 91st figure loss will weaken the "bullish" impulse and may lead to the fall to 0.9000.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 82.67. The EUR/USD remained under the pressure on the background of the United States positive macroeconomic data. The July durable goods orders release showed 22.6% increase which provides a strong private consumption solid foundation in the current quarter. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board also has pleased the market participants and a good report on this background pushed the euro/dollar to the level of 1.3165. The pair was returned above this level.

The GBP/USD amid the lack of interesting reports publication consolidated in a narrow range. However, as soon as the market participants got a pleasant surprise from the United States on the durable goods orders and the consumer confidence index - the sellers began actively selling the GBP/USD, based on the continued United States economy strong growth in this year 3rd quarter.

The stock index S & P500 storms all new maximums, followed by the Japanese stock market stretching and it all ends with the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the durable goods orders. Against this background, we saw the bullish sentiment on the USD/JPY. The traders are still positive about the American dollar prospects and redeem any USD/JPY quotations decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The single European currency is still the pressure. The euro selling has been resumed that can be caused by the sufficiently strong United States economy data. However, it seems not the only the euro weakening factor, it is possible that the investors are beginning to prepare for the euro zone inflation release which will be published later this week and the forecasts predict the further consumer price index reduction.

The sellers did not manage to break below the support level of 1.3170. The level breakthrough was followed by the relatively weak price reduction continuation amid the lower volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The trend is directed downwards. We expect the level of 1.3170 touching soon.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound also fell against the dollar, but new minimums were not tested. Like the euro, the pound has increased pressure during the American session following the U.S. economy published data. However, the UK news had a bleak character.

The four day price consolidation above the resistance level of 1.6570 was followed by the price bounce downward. The bouncing was followed by the background of the increased volume and fell to the minimum - 1.6545.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar/yen spent the yesterday trading in the differently directed movement. The investors bought the yen amid the falling Japan stock market and then it was sold under the United States economy good data influence.

The Japanese currency was traded against the dollar within a narrow range. The historical resistance level of 104.00 was tested. Because the fact that the testing occurred at the lower volumes, the buyers did not manage to consolidate above the level of 104.00.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 104.00, 104.35.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Eurozone economy recovery has been stopped forces the SNB to maintain measures to curb the national currency growth against the euro. Today, the debt crisis problem has been receded, but the economic recovery stop by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market.

The dollar was stable against other major currencies after the United States consumer confidence upbeat data release and the controversial durable goods orders report.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.08.2014

Fundamental analysis

The main American currency competitors could return some lost ground. The EUR/USD gained 0.2% against the partial profit taking on the short positions. No important macroeconomic statistics have been published, and after the price drop to the level of 1.3160 traders started to close the "shorts", which allowed the euro to correct to the 32nd figure. Nevertheless the pair decreased.


The GBP/USD is trying to test 1.6535-1.6600 short-term trading range upper bound, but the bears fought off the attack which indicates the pessimism presence about the British currency prospects. Amid the empty macroeconomic calendar we again observed a side trend.


The Japan and the United States stock market quotations decrease cheered the bears to short opening. However, we have not seen the American currency strong sales - the bulls are still buying the rollbacks and we observe the consolidation within the range of 103.70 -104.15.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro was not able to reverse the situation and did not strengthen against the dollar. The Eurozone economic statistics has not issued anything supportive for the single currency.

The buyers failed to break above the resistance level of 1.3230 and the downtrend channel of 1.3200 upper boundary. The two levels breakthrough occurred at the high volumes this week.

The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.3230 and 1.3290.



Pound (GBP)

The British pound did grow against the American dollar. The important economic and political news weren’t published nor in the Britain, nor in the United States.

The level of 1.6640 breakthrough occurred at lower volumes, the price for the fourth time will be able to test the 1.6640 downward trend line strength (the downtrend channel upper bound).

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

The yen did not continue to rise against the dollar. There is the optimism fall in the Japan stock market where the Nikkei was dropped by 0.5%.


The second approach to the resistance level of 104.20 was fallowed by the price bounce down. Against the background of the low volumes the American dollar corrected down against the Japanese yen.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential rebound target are the support levels of 104.00 and 104.35.



Franc (CHF)

The dollar was under the pressure from its major opponents. Amid the lack of the economic news the strong support and resistance levels led to the correction, resulting the dollar fell against all the majors.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The market is quite. The major pairs showed a further side correction during which the dollar slightly fell against the euro and the pound and also got slightly stronger to the yen. The State's economy supported the dollar, still it had a minimal impact on the market. Clearly, the investors are waiting for the stronger drivers that may appear from the United States labor data this week.

There was a more strong States economic recovery in the 2nd quarter - the GDP growth was revised from + 4.2% q/q, instead of the reducing to 3.8% q/q, while the previous calculations showed to + 3.9% q/q, the secondary housing market sales signed contracts number in July rose more than expected, showing +3.3% m/m, with expectations to see +0.6% m/m, and the initial claims number fell to 298 thousand last week, while the forecast expected about 300 thousand.

We expect the U.S. July costs and incomes data and the Chicago activity reports. The demand indicators, which are ranked as costs and incomes are forecasted to be expected with a continued +0.2% m/m and +0.3% m/m growth respectively, which indicates the stable consumer activity, and the August Chicago PMI index with the rise to 56.3 from 52.6 previously. These results are the positive indicators for the dollar and can support it.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The Eurozone economy reports have put a pressure on the European single currency which lowered the euro/dollar. The reason for this disappointment came from Germany and the European Commission studies on the European bloc economy sentiment.

The buyers finally managed to close the price gap. Once the gap was closed, the price immediately dropped to the support level of 1.3130.

The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3070 soon.



Pound (GBP)

The pound/dollar continues to trade near the strong technical levels reached by the "bearish" trend. The UK economy news was favorable for the pound – the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported the August strong sales growth, the indicator rose to 37 from 21, while it was expected to rise only 27.

The continuous price consolidation occurs in the downward channel direction. As the resistance level of 1.6640 is not broken, the potential downtrend remains in force.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Obviously, the stock market and the technical resistance levels weakness favor the profit-taking on the instrument. In addition, the pressure on the dollar could be strengthened by the exporters selling.

There has been the support level of 103.70 retest. In the light of the high-volume the sellers tried to break below the level, but the test was followed by the price false bounce up.

The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 104.00, the next one is level of 104.35.



Franc (CHF)

The dollar strengthened after the preliminary data showed that the United States domestic product gross was increased by 4.2% in the second quarter, exceeding the growth expectations of 3.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9210.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price decreases we advise to short with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090. If the price grows we advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar became the market leader - the dollar index basket (USDX) is at around 82.73. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the weak Eurozone data. The Germany and Spain July retail sales were significantly decreased which together with the CPI decrease to 0.3% y/y has caused the euro sales. A deflationary threat still hangs over the Eurozone and therefore the traders wait for the ECB decisive actions on September 4.

The bulls once again tried to attack the level of 1.6602 on the GBP/USD, but once again the bears successfully repulsed the attack. After the Institute of Michigan revised data publication we saw strong pound selling. The consumer confidence index rose to 82.5 in August, which is a positive signal for the economy, now it is possible to expect the personal consumption growth.

The Japan macroeconomic statistics disappointed the foreign exchange market participants - in addition to the CPI decrease, the same household spending fell sharply by 5.9% in July which is extremely negative for the economy’s growth. In this regard, we observed the Japanese yen weakening and the USD/JPY price growth which at the moment reaches 104.10. The Japan's economy after the April 1 sales tax rates increase shows a sharp slowdown while the United States showed a steady growth over the same period which caused the bullish trend continuation.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The single currency broke the resistance level of 1.3170 last week and fell to the support level of 1.3130 where started trading this week. The short-term level tests have allowed the buyers to close the price gap.

The level of 1.3170 five day retest led to the price bounce down and the further dollar strengthening. The downward trend continued amid the low volumes.

The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the ‘Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.3070 testing soon.



Pound (GBP)

The pound trading continues in the downward channel direction for the second month. In the short term, the USD strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570. The temporary break which occurred last week was followed by the correctional price growth up to the downward trend line 1.6640

The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The level of 1.6640 retest may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.



Yen (JPY)

The resistance level of 104.00 first break wasn’t long. The buyers has broken the historical resistance for the second time and fixed above. The dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen occurred amid the lower volumes. Despite the fact that the upward trend is gradually fizzles out, the resistance level of 104.00 break up in the longer term indicates the bullish trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 104.00, the next one is at 103.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.35, the next one is at 104.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 104.35. After breaking 104.35 the buyers may go to 104.80.



Franc (CHF)

The franc continued to decrease against the dollar strengthening. The American currency has strengthened its position after the United States solid economic publication.

The data showed that the United States consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 in August, compared with 90.3 in July. It has been the highest level since October 2007.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9240.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The pairs spent week beginning within the small ranges amid the United States banking output the EUR/USD was held in the horizontal flat market 1.3118 -1.3145 amid the empty macroeconomic calendar day. Traders are ready to test the 312 figure, but don’t hurry to take positions before the ECB meeting, scheduled for Thursday, September 4th.

The UK manufacturing sector PMI release disappointed the investors. The August resulting value was 52.5 while the index is below the 12-month average for two months in a row which is a negative signal for the production sector. We observed the GBP/USD price growth before the report publication, but then the investors were selling the British currency.

The bulls keep the USD/JPY situation under control. Now almost nothing threatens the upward trend and against this background we observe the price increase even on an empty macroeconomic calendar. As the importers do not prevent such a scenario - then their risks are hedged and they are also ready for the upward trend.



Euro (EUR)

The volumes divergence indicates the downward trend weakening. But they haven’t reported about the trend reversal up signals. The euro decrease against the American dollar is in the downward channel which is the price movement benchmark.

In addition, the trading goes below the last week minimum - the resistance level of 1.3170. This level is a strong resistance on the buyers’ way.

The price is finding the support at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3170.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The pair is back to the “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a directed down. We believe the pair will move to 1.3070 soon.



Pound (GBP)

The pound made an attempt to rise against the dollar at the beginning of this week. Earlier this week, the market sentiment was on the sterling side which probably wad due to the technical factors and some policy tightening strengthening expectations by the Bank of England.

The buyers managed to come to the resistance level of 1.6640. This growth happened amid the negative GBP fundamental data. Then the sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.6570 and to reduce the price to the support level of 1.6500.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6500, the next one is at 1.6440. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6640.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.6440.



Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen dropped against the dollar and as the result recorded a loss. The historic resistance level of 104.80 did not stop the American dollar growth against the Japanese yen. The small downward correction was followed by the confirmed uptrend continuation.

The dollar strengthening has allowed the buyers to break above the strong resistance levels of 104.35 and 104.80.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 105.60.



Franc (CHF)

The dollar gained on the euro weakness and the Asian markets rise which have kept the investors demand for the yen refuge.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9240. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9300.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day around 82.99, the first time since July 2013. However, the EUR/USD has been in a horizontal flat for the third trading day in a row, despite the United States positive macroeconomic data. The traders do not hurry to open positions before the European monetary control meeting and against this background we observe the range trading.


The GBP/USD has ignored the UK strong construction sector business activity release and tested the 65 figure after the ISM manufacturing sphere positive data publication. The ISM index came in at 59 which is the highest level since April 2011. This release supports the positive forecast for the 3rd quarter in the United States economy and against the UK manufacturing sector weakness we observed the massive pound sell-off along the entire market.


The bulls were able to take the 105 figure on the USD/JPY. We observed the large number of the activated stop orders in the Asian session which brought the pair to the strong level of 104.80. However, we did not see the stop amid a corporate bonds strong demand in the Japanese stock market so the growth was continued amid the United States manufacturing sector business activity positive macroeconomic statistics release. The pair slightly fell at the end of the trading day.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro showed stability against the dollar and ended the day on the opening price. Obviously the strong technical levels and the uncertainty about the rate results expectations from the ECB meeting which ends on Thursday supported the European currency. However during the afternoon trading the euro was under the pressure and the euro/dollar fell even to the new daily low.

The buyers broke through the downtrend channel upper bound at the level of 1.3130. Thus, the price is out of the downtrend channel that limits indicates the corrective rally up formation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.3170, 1.3230.



Pound (GBP)

The British pound has fallen against the dollar and lost about 140 points. The main reason for such pessimism was the increased rumors about the possible the Scotland separation from the UK.

The pulse rates decrease is happened after the level of 1.6570 breakthrough. Such a strong price fall occurred amid the GBP positive fundamental release.

The trading volumes support a downward trend. Bears are very strong now.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6440, the next one is at 1.6370. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6500, the next one is at 1.6570.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Death Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6370.



Yen (JPY)

The Japanese yen also as the pound fell solidly against the dollar. After the four months sleep the dollar actively strengthens against the Japanese yen. The two month growth happened amid the low volumes and the pair reached the historic resistance level of 105.20 formed from 2013.12.30. Then the pair slightly fell.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 104.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 104.35.



Franc (CHF)

The Swiss Franc slightly strengthened against the dollar. The dollar held near 14-month high to the major currencies basket due to the good United States economic statistics and the US bond yields growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9240.




Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The EUR/USD enjoyed a moderate demand from the traders the other day despite the weak macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. The August service sector PMI final data was revised down to the level of 53.1. The retail sales also showed a decline of -0.4%, which indicates a lack of consumer confidence in the region. However, the euro/dollar was growing moderately, as willing to sell at the low levels has been very little. Nevertheless after the ECB’s decision to reduce the interest rate the pair fell to the new minimums.


The GBP/USD ignores the positive macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom. The services PMI rose to the level of 60.5, which is the highest level in the last 10 months. However, we have not seen a strong demand for the pound - at the moment the price reached the level of 1.6496 and the bulls’ impulse for the growth was over. As we do not see the GBP/USD growth- there are strong sellers in the market. The pair also fell after the EBC’s decisions announcement.


After a long upward trend – the investors are taking profits in the USD/JPY. It should also be noted that the "longs" closing also happened in the United States and Japan stock markets which also inspired the bears to the short-term short positions opening. No important macroeconomic statistics has not been published and the sales were of a purely technical nature.



Euro (EUR)

The euro came under the dual influence. The markets negative sentiment provides a weak economic data from the euro zone and the risk appetite - a possible transition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine peacekeeping phase. As a result, the single currency spent the day in multidirectional trade before the ECB’s meeting. After the decision to reduce the interest rate the euro fell.

Two days price consolidation was followed by a slight increase. Then the pair decreased to a new min.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.2850 soon.



Pound (GBP)

The British economy good data maintained the sterling for a very short time. The attempt to start the GBP/USD growth quickly stopped after the statistics indicated the British services field activity growth rate efforts. The market participants were waiting for the ECB’s meeting results.

More recently, the historical level of 1.6485 formed from 2014.03.21, was a sufficiently great support. But after the ECB announced that they decided to reduce the interest rate the pound significantly fell.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6440, the next one is at 1.6500.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Death Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.6440 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6270.



Yen (JPY)

The yen strengthened slightly against the dollar. Obviously, the technical levels and the Bank of Japan rate outcome expectations became a deterrent to the USD/JPY growth. The Japanese regulator did not change anything and confirmed the economy optimistic assessment, despite the slowdown in the economic activity, after the sales tax increase in April. This decision has no effect on the market, the dollar/yen was traded in a narrow range. As for the future, it is likely that the calmness will last until the European Central Bank decisions and the USA economy data which can give fresh guidelines for the trading.

The American dollar is testing the historical resistance level 105.20 strength.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 104.35. We do not exclude the growth to 105.70.



Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. There were not any national macrostatistics, so the first rate dynamics was formed by the United States Statistics. The United States labor market continues to slow the growth, but the changes in wages and the price pressures are not seen. The pair rose sharply after the ECB meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9300. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The ECB’s surprise supported the dollar as the US currency strengthened the confidence on all fronts. The market was surprised that the European regulator not only lowered all the key interest rates, but also announced the securities buying that, in fact, is the quantitative easing.

As a result the dollar rose against the euro by 200 points and against the pound over 140 points. The dispute with the yen was also positive for the dollar, but in this case, it seems to have been largely driven by the United States good economic data. As the presented statistics, the United States trade deficit was narrowed in July, instead of the expected increase to -42.5 billion it recorded -40.6 billion dollars, while the initial jobless claims rose, but not significantly, only to 302 thousand against the expectations to see 300 thousand and ADP private sector employment dynamics reports which noted the increase on 204 thousand with expectations of 215 thousand which was quite a positive result.

The positive news came from the Supply Management Institute, the USA non-manufacturing sector activity report in August - the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 59.6 from 58.7 in July. Despite the fact that some indicators fell short, it did not carry negative moments for the dollar and did not stop it from the market leadership, as indicator values reflect the high levels.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The ECB's monetary policy publication fell off the euro last week. The prime lending rate was reduced to 0.05% from 0.15% and the bank deposit rate to -0.2% from -0.1%. We observed the single currency massive selling. M. Draghi’s words that the ECB will launch the asset-backed private sector securities buying round weakened the euro positions.

The single currency has lost 230 points against the dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is a down side. The potential downtrend targets are the support levels: 1.2930, 1.2850. The level of 1.2850 retest may lead to a price rebound upward.



Pound (GBP)

The British pound also fell against the dollar. The sterling collapse came amid the dollar optimism caused by the ECB decisions. While the British regulator has not changed the main refinancing rate currently at 0.5% and left the bond purchases program in the amount of 375 billion pounds.

The price rapid decrease has led to the 1.6340 downtrend channel lower bound breakthrough. The level break occurred in the context of increased volume which in the longer term indicates the bearish trend continuation.

The price is finding the support at 1.6270. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential downtrend target is the support level of 1.6270.



Yen (JPY)

The Japanese currency also fell against the dollar. However, news about the ECB decision significantly affected the USD/JPY positions. The United States economy good results news and U.S. Treasuries profitability growth supported the dollar.

The USD/JPY has tested the historical resistance level of 105.30 strength. The level retest was followed by the price bounce downward.

The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.30, the next one is at 105.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 104.80 first. If the price fixates, it may continue the upward trend in the short term.



Franc (CHF)

The Franc suffered losses against the general dollar trend due to expectations that the world's largest economy strengthening signs will allow the Fed to start the monetary policy normalizing process sooner than expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9270, the next one is at 0.9210. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is fixing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9330. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The American currency slightly lost some positions against the background of the moderately negative macroeconomic statistics - the dollar index basket (USDX) ended the last trading week at 83.77.

The EUR/USD trading was within the range of 1.2921 -1.2988. The pair fell at the end of the trading day. The United States labor market release came out ambiguous - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 6.1%, while the non-farm payrolls rose only to the level of 142,000, instead of the expected 226 000. Against this background, the bulls tried to push quotes to the 30 figure, but the bears were able to fight off the level which indicates a strong euro/dollar strong downward trend.

The GBP/USD also remained under the pressure during the day, but some market participants decided to take profits on the short positions after the Non-Farm report which came worse than the forecasted medians, but it didn’t bring any strong dividends to the pound. The pair sharply fell down.

The USD/JPY was able to set the fresh maximum at the level of 105.70 - the bulls started to close the "longs" which caused the strong price decrease. The United States employment macroeconomic statistics increased the downward movement and at the moment the price reached the level of 104.68, but by the end of the trading the bulls were able to restore the lost positions. The pair rose above the level of 105.70.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro declined against the dollar at high volumes. Moreover, the general USD majors pairs' correlation is directed towards the dollar strengthening.

The trend line of 1.2980 – 1.3000 break should be highlighted. The sellers were able not only to break down such a strong support, but lowered the price for 240 points down.

The price is finding the support at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2830 – 1.2850. This level test may lead to a price consolidation.



Pound (GBP)

The last week was a breakdown for the British pound. The sellers managed to break through the two strong support levels located at levels of 1.6440 and 1.6340 at high volumes.

The active dollar strengthening against the GBP led to the descending channel leaving and a gap. In the future, we expect the bearish trend continuation.

The price is finding the support at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The trend is directed down. We expect the level of 1.6100 testing soon.



Yen (JPY)

There was a historical resistance level of 105.70 testing. The price came above this level.

As a rule, the false the strong resistance level testing is a good signal for the upward trend reversal. But as long as the sale proceeds in the uptrend direction, the bullish trend is still strong.

The price is finding the support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.30. The price is finding the resistance at 106.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 105.70 testing is more likely to lead to the consolidation.



Franc (CHF)

The franc partially compensated the loss after the report showed the smaller United States August new jobs increase than analysts expected. This news weakened the expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to interest rates raise sooner than expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The new week showed the dollar strengthening resumption. Obviously, the emotions caused by the unsatisfactory labor report were forgotten and the dollar continued its rally. There wasn’t any meaningful statistics published, except the Japan news where the second GDP estimate marked the economy reduction and the market is guided by the political impulse component which stimulates the dollar popularity growth.

Another internal region influence factors were added by the Fed and ECB multi-directional policy fact that supports the dollar – the UK increases the Scotland separation probability, Japan showed top management statements disagreement about the fiscal and monetary policies prospects amid the weak economic data.

There was not published any interesting United States statistics. News that is worth attention is the NFIB small business sentiment report. It is assumed that the August optimism index in this area rose to 96.0 from 95.7. These expectations, of course, do not change their sentiment towards the dollar, but at the same time will not add the buying impulse. It is most likely that the dollar will continue strengthening under already formed sentiment influence, but it can interfere with the technical factors, as the American currency look much overbought and majors have come to serious levels of support and resistance.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The American dollar has been actively strengthening against the euro. Obviously, the pessimism caused by the United States employment has gone and the market returned again under the main influence pressure factors - the ECB information about the measures taken to soften the monetary policy. There wasn’t a lot of the euro area economy news. Still the yesterday’s releases were able to support the euro for some time.

The buyers managed to update the last week minimum at the level of 1.2920 and to fix below the level of 1.2930.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.3000. The approach to this line may lead to a price rebound down. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2790.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

The pound continued its decline against the dollar. The price gap in about 55 points was not closed and the downward trend was continued amid the increased volumes.

The Scotland separation probability gives the uncertainty to the UK economy perspective and gives more assurance that the Bank of England will have to postpone the first rate raise which support the pound demand.

The price is finding the support at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward trend line 1.6180 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.6080 decrease.



Yen (JPY)

General Overview

The Japanese yen also fell against the dollar. Probably, the first push for the rally resumption was given by the message that the second GDP estimate in the 2nd quarter recorded an even greater reduction than it was previously stated. Further, the yen could be pushed by the prime minister of Japan economic adviser E. Honda statements who spoke about the new sales tax growth inexpediency which is planned for the next year.

There was the strong resistance level of 105.30 breakthrough.

The continuous trading in the uptrend direction has led to the upper bound at the level of 105.70 breakthrough. The upward trend continues to gain strength.

The price is finding the support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the resistance at 106.70.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

Currently, the price is being traded above the resistance level 106.30 which has already become a support. We do not exclude the consolidation.



Franc (CHF)

General Overview

The Franc strengthened its position despite the fact that the dollar growth on the Fed monetary policy normalization process expectations remains in force.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthening stalled at the trading on Wednesday. Another side correction was formed and turned into a slight dollar decrease against European majors. However, early in the day the dollar still managed to test new high. Obviously, the interest decline to the dollar was based on the strong support as well as the UK economic and political news.

The dollar retained a clear advantage in relations with the yen and closed the session with a plus. There were only few news from the U.S., in fact, the attention was attracted by the National Federation of Independent Business report pointed that the August small business owners optimism rose to 96.1 against 95.7 in July, while the forecasts were reduced to a growth to the level of 96.0 which had no effect on the market sentiment.

The United States news set wasn’t rich in the important indicators content - the July wholesale trade inventories data will be published, as the forecasts suggest an increase by 0.5% m/m, after +0.3% m/m. However, the expectations in terms of the most July wholesale trade talking about the activity reducing to 0.2% m/m vs. +0.6% m/m previously which will reduce the growth stocks information gains if they are confirmed by the fact as it indicates to the residual increase due to the reduced demand.

If we talk about the prospects, the correction may well be continued under the technical factors influence and a poor news flow in almost all regions. The only exception is the Britain where we expect for the important political events and therefore it could increase the dollar/pound volatility.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The euro interest rose slightly during the session on Wednesday. The European currency has strengthened against the dollar and almost closed the previous day loss. Obviously, this fact can be related to the technical factors influence as economic and political background for the euro remains negative.

The buyers were able to push the price to last week low - the resistance level of 1.2930. The price went up to this level on the background of the low volumes and the pair bounced downwards.

In the absence of a fundamental factor today the trade may pass amid the low volatility. We expect the EUR/USD to consolidate below the current support level of 1.2930.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued if there is a long-term consolidation below the level of 1.2930. The first target is the level 1.2850, the next one is 1.2790.



Pound (GBP)

The attempts to continue lowering the pound at Tuesday's session had a short term success. The British currency noted a new low against the dollar amid the same questions about the Scottish independence influence, still the pound recorded a very slight plus near the opening prices on the day. The sterling stayed afloat with the UK economic data support and the head of the Bank of England M.Karni’s statement.

The pound downward movement was stopped at the intermediate support level of 1.6100. The two-day consolidation at the level led to the price bounce upwards and came to the resistance level of 1.6180.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the consolidation will be above the support level of 1.6180.



Yen (JPY)

The yen continued to fall against the dollar in yesterday's trading and came to the new local minimum. The investors' opinion that the Bank of Japan may supplement the quantitative easing package is the driver for this pair. In addition, a support for the dollar against the yen was resumed by the U.S. "Treasuries" yield growth at the yesterday's session.

The upper bound breakthrough was followed by the price short-term consolidation formation below the support level of 106.30.

The price is finding the support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the resistance at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 107.10.



Franc (CHF)

The Swiss franc resumed its decline after the recent gains. The dollar index rises on the speculation that this week economic data publication will give additional arguments to the Fed to raise the interest rates next year.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9430



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

In the news absence the euro/dollar was traded under the technical factors. Faced with resistance, the European currency fell slightly against the dollar. The Eurozone economic indicators were published by few posts, the France industrial production dynamics could not provide the euro support, as it showed the July dramatic slowdown.

The British pound managed to recover after the new low against the dollar touching. The reason for a such events turn can be called the technical factors presented by a strong support that the pair cannot overcome almost three sessions, as well as the Scotland people views variability presented information, where, according to a new pull, where the most people are already on the Scotland separation opponents side. The UK economy statistics was not published and the political day component - the Parliament inflation hearing, didn’t cause the market reaction.

The Japanese currency was the most vulnerable in the foreign exchange market. Obviously, the dollar sentiment, formed under the Fed and BoJ multi-directional monetary policy influence continues to support the dollar/yen. The additional buying interest was given by the observed USA government bond yields increase - the 10-year-old "Treasuries" have reached the highest level since the end of July.



Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We expect the August Germany and France consumer price index final assessment publication, still no one waits for changes - 0.0% m/m, +0.8% y/y and 0.3% m/m, 0.3% y/y, respectively, that will not activate the market, unless we get unexpected news.

The resistance level of 1.2935 retest was followed by the short-term consolidation. After that, there was the price bounce down amid the high volume. Then the pair came back to the level of 1.2930.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 1.2850. If the price grows it will get to 1.3000.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The BoE speeches reduced to the familiar rhetoric that the interest rate is likely to be raised no earlier than 2015. The UK news set has presented the most interesting information - the August RICS house price balance report showed the appraisers number reduction who expects the price growth in the short time, up to 40% from 48% previously.

Based on the volume which was on the trades closing, the pound clearly intends to continue the correctional price growth up. In addition, it is worth noting the level of 1.6270 testing. The gap was closed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough up the way to the resistance level of 1.6340 will be opened.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

There is no Japanese economy news for today so the yen continues to fall against the dollar and on the current trading, obviously amid the Japan stock market optimism wave, where the Nikkei has grown by almost 0.8%.

The corrective price decrease to the level of 106.70 was fallowed by the price bounce upwards. However, judging by what amounts were used to the continued American dollar growth against the Japanese yen, it can't be called as the confident uptrend.

The price is finding the support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the resistance at 107.10.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 106.30. We believe it will continue growing.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has corrected its fall against the dollar. We expect the initial jobless claims where the average forecast is reduced to 300,000. There also will be the August federal budget report (forecast - $ 129.00 billion.).

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.



 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.09.2014

Fundamental analysis

The dollar instruments multidirectional movement points to the fact that most of the players are waiting for the Fed meeting which will take place this week. Most of the dollar instruments continue to move in the dollar favor, but some major European pairs have stopped falling and are at the previously achieved levels at least. This situation may point to the dollar positions profit close.

The American dollar slightly rose last week. The traders are waiting for the Fed rate increase in the mid-2015.

The initial jobless claims release put some pressure on the dollar, but given the fact that we had the Labor Day the last week, the correction was negligible. It was expected that the claims number will be 300 thousands. The growth amounted to 11 thousand up to the 28 June maximum with 315 thousand claims. The market participants interpreted the data as weekly variations in terms of the labor market situation improving.

The FOMC meeting will be held on September 16-17, during which as expected, the possible interest rates changes will be published. Since March of this year, the Fed says that rates will remain near zero levels for the considerable time after the quantitative easing program end in October this year.



Euro (EUR)

General overview

Recently, the dollar takes a strong position, but we need the truly high retail sales rate to meet the expectations for the monetary policy normalization in the early to mid-2015. The FOMC meeting will be held this week to confirm or refute these assumptions. Also this week, the ECB is launching its new target lending program and a strong demand will be bullish for the euro.

The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.2930 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.2850 will be opened. We do not exclude the level of 1.3000 retest.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The sterling found a strong support and was steady against the dollar after the BoE Chairman speech. In his speech, the Chairman presented the Bank's inflation report. The increased pro-independence popularity in recent polls caused some concerns and frightened traders which were forced to sell the pound. The Scottish independence referendum will be held on 18 September.

Based on the volume which was on the trades closing, the pound clearly intends to continue the correctional price growth up. In addition, it is worth noting the level of 1.6270 testing. The gap was closed.

The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.6340. In this case the gap will be closed. Then the downward trend may be continued.



Yen (JPY)

General overview

The dollar continues to receive support through hopes for the Fed meeting on September 17 which is expected to gain an aggressive attitude and to change the strategy intent statements, in particular, in the commentary about the rates conservation at low levels for a long time.

The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the resistance at 107.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 106.70, 106.30.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has corrected its fall against the franc. The Franc corrected against the dollar.

Earlier, the franc fell to the one-year low against the dollar and suffered losses against the euro after the Wall Street Journal announcement that the negative interest rates are one of the options for the Swiss National Bank.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.