Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

Международное объединение Форекс трейдеров (МОФТ) объявило результаты голосования в премии IAFT Awards 2015. Компания NordFX победила в номинации «Лучший брокер Азии».
Голосование проходило в течение одного месяца 1-30 декабря 2015, и каждый посетитель сайта премии имел возможность отдать свой голос наилучшим представителям форекс-индустрии в 17-ти номинациях.
Мы благодарны всем трейдерам и экспертам за оказанное доверие! Безусловно, NordFX будет и впредь поддерживать высокую планку и совершенствовать качество предоставляемых услуг для клиентов Азии и других регионов.

Forex Forecast for 25-29 January 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the experts’ opinion about EUR/USD’s bearish sentiment proved right – the pair fell by 120 points during the week. However, this is exactly how short it was of the 1.0650 low indicated by graphical analysis. Thus, the forecast came half true;
- the GBP/USD pair met the expectations of the indicators, the experts and graphical analysis. The indicators had insisted on a further downtrend, and it did continue – the pair dropped another 200 points. The experts had also anticipated a rebound, which happened as well – from Thursday, the pair went up. Graphical analysis on H1 had claimed that the peak would be at 1.4370, and GBP/USD nearly got there, stopping short at 1.4362;
- the forecast for USD/JPY had consisted of two stages – first, a rise to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. That transpired to a tee – on Tuesday, the pair reached resistance at 118.10, rebounded from it and got to the low of 116.00 on Wednesday. The forecast had indicated that this cycle would take all week but USD/JPY completed both stages before Thursday. During Thursday and Friday, the pair went up to the lower boundary of the triangle, which had been formed over last August - October;
- there was no consensus about USD/CHF. The forecast by graphical analysis on H1 turned out to be more or less correct with some approximation – a rise to 1.01125 (the pair went up to 1.00825) and then a return to 1.0020 (the pair stopped at 1.0000). As for larger timeframes, graphical analysis on D1 had forecast quite a fast rise to 1.02500, and, in fact, USD/CHF went up sharply reaching 1.0165 by the end of the week.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Generalizing the opinions of scores of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- surprisingly, there is unanimity about EUR/USD as 75% of the analysts, all indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 vote for a fall to 1.0650-1.0700. Alternatively, 25% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 support bullish sentiment and a rise to 1.0850-1.0900. After that, however, the pair should drop trying to reach the low of the first week of last December;
- the analysts' opinions on GBP/USD are split three almost even ways – 33% for a fall to 1.4000, 33% for a rise to 1.4550 and the remaining third for a sideways trend. The indicators and graphical analysis on H4 agree with the latter, drawing a channel in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. Graphical analysis on D1 sides with those experts who speak about a further rebound upward, citing exactly the same level of 1.4550;
- the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict that USD/JPY will rebound to 119.50. However, the experts differ again – one-third of them are for a rise, 40% are for a side trend with a 118.00 pivot point and the rest are for the pair’s return to last week’s low;
- last week, graphical analysis predicted USD/CHF would soar to 1.02500. This bullish sentiment stands for this week too but with a corrected target of 1.0210, at which the pair should reverse and go back to the pivot point at 1.0080. The indicators on H4 and D1 and 70% of the experts agree with this view. The analysts set 1.0300 as the pair’s final longer-term target, followed by a drop to 0.9800, which may take 2-3 weeks.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 1-5 February 2016
First, about last week’s predictions:
- EUR/USD once again proved that the majority opinion may be wrong. The pair’s bullish sentiment was supported by only 25% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 but it is they who turned out to be right – straight from the market opening, the pair went up sharply and then, as predicted, plunged as sharply almost to the level of the start of the week;
- a third of the experts talked about GBP/USD’s rise to 1.4550 while another third supported a transition into a sideways trend in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. The weekly chart shows that both groups were right as the pair stayed in this corridor all five days, occasionally attempting to break its upper boundary and reach the target height. However, none of these attempts succeeded, and the pair ended up near the level of the start of the week;
- there are times when all forecasts, including alternative ones, prove incorrect. This is what happened when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduced a negative interest rate policy for the first time, which resulted in the yen’s fall against all 16 major currencies. The USD/JPY pair needed just 1 day (29 January) to return to the level around which it had revolved during the past year;
- two weeks ago, the immediate target for USD/CHF was a rise to 1.0250. Last week, graphical analysis lowered it to 1.0210, which it shouldn’t have done as the pair easily reached 1.0255 on Friday, countering the rush to change forecasts.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summing up the views of scores of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- opinions on EUR/USD once again turned out quite unanimous – 60% of the analysts, 100% of the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis at D1 vote for a fall to 1.0700 at least. With that, the pair may first rebound to resistance at 1.0990, then return to support at 1.0800, break through it and drop to 1.0700 and then further down to support at 1.0560;
- as for GBP/USD, 100% of the indicators look downward. However, the analysts differ. The indicators’ readings are supported by only 12% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair will go down gradually to support at 1.4120. A sideways trend is backed by 38% of the experts. Graphical analysis on D1 and the remaining 50% of the experts reckon that GBP/USD will rebound further upward, trying to reach 1.4630. With this, graphical analysis indicates that after the rebound the pair will return to the current level of 1.4240 by the end of February;
- the decision by the Bank of Japan left graphical analysis and most experts perplexed. At the same time, 25% of the experts and 90% of the indicators insist USD/JPY should continue to rise up to 122.30-123.00, and only one analyst believes that the pair will return to January’s main support of 116.50;
- most experts and graphical analysis on H4 believe that USD/CHF will be moving in a 1.0200-1.0310 sideways channel for some time. However, graphical analysis on D1 insists that the pair should go down to support at 0.9920 and then enter a sideways corridor of 0.9920-1.0080. In the longer term, 40% of the analysts believe that 1.0310 is not the limit and the pair may rise to 1.0500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 8-12 February 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- initially everything was going according to plan for EUR/USD – it rebounded to resistance at 1.0990 but then, instead of reversing and going down, it soared up to the values of last September-October. The reason for that was simply comments by US Federal Reserve official William Dudley who expressed doubts about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2016;
- Mr. Dudley’s remarks helped the 50% of the experts who, backed by graphical analysis on D1, reckoned that GBP/USD would continue to move up to 1.4630. The pair reached this level on Wednesday and, as expected, went down, finishing the week around 1.4500;
- after the Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate policy, most experts were at a loss. Only one analyst believed that USD/JPY would return to the main support of January – 116.50, which happened, again thanks W. Dudley’s comments;
- graphical analysis on D1 insisted that USD/CHF should go down to support at 0.9920, and it did, mirroring EUR/USD’s movement.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- in the shorter term, the indicators and graphical analysis on H1 point to EUR/USD entering a sideways trend in a 1.1250-1.1220 range. As the previous week showed, all major currency pairs’ movements will certainly depend a lot on Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech this Wednesday. After the speech, EUR/USD may rise to 1.1350. However, over 70% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that the market has almost recovered after the bad news from the Federal Reserve, and the pair should return to 1.0400-1.0600 in the next couple of weeks;
- the experts' opinions split almost 50/50 in regards to GBP/USD. According to the indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the pair will be moving in a horizontal 1.4400-1.4545 channel in the near future. In the longer term, 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predict a rise to resistance at 1.4900. However, 60% of the experts don’t agree with this, insisting that the pair should fall and get to 1.4220 by the end of February;
- after USD/JPY nosedived last week, it’s clear that all indicators point downward. Considering the ‘war’ of interest rates between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the experts seem unable to reach a consensus – 35% are for a fall, another 35% are for a rise, and the rest 30% are for a sideways trend in a 116.40-118.25 range;
- the analysts are undecided about USD/CHF. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair will first go up to 0.9980, then fall to support at 0.9800, after which it is expected to rise to resistance at 1.0124 and return to around 1.025-1.032.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Double Success for NordFX in Forex Awards 2015
We are pleased to announce that NordFX has won in two nominations in the Forex Awards voting for 2015 – Best Micro Forex Broker and Best Execution Broker.
Every year since 2010, Forex Awards selects the best forex and binary options brokers. Their expert community of active traders and website visitors votes for winners in a wide range of prestigious categories.
We at NordFX are very appreciative of such high marks for the company’s efforts in 2015 and will continue to do our best to offer traders the best and the most useful for successful trading on Forex.

Forex Forecast for 15-19 February 2016

First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out 100% – the pair remained in a sideways trend until mid-week, then, after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech, it broke through resistance at 1.1250 and rose to 1.1350. On achieving this, the pair reverted to 1.1250, turning it into support;
- the forecast for GBP/USD was that the pair would be moving in a 1.4400-1.4545 horizontal channel all week long. That actually happened – the pair stayed between 1.4380 support and 1.4560 resistance for all five days;
- it appeared impossible to make an intelligible prediction for USD/JPY as the experts’ opinions were split almost equally. In fact, the indicators and those who foresaw a further spectacular nosedive proved right. In two weeks, the pair plunged from 121.70 to the bottom of 111.00, i.e. by over 1,000 points, and reached the level of October 2014;
- last week, the analysts were at a loss regarding USD/CHF. The indications of graphical analysis were only partially correct. As expected, at the beginning of the week the pair approached 0.9980, then went down and quickly reached support at 0.9800. After that, instead of rebounding, USD/CHF moved further down, touched the bottom at 0.9660 and only then returned to 0.9800.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- as for EUR/USD, 65% of the experts and the indicators on D1 talk about a continuing uptrend. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 shows that the pair may go up to 1.1400 during the week and only then move down. The remaining 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 expect the pair to fall within the next five days. Graphical analysis, in turn, indicates that EUR/USD may stay in a sideways corridor of 1.1225-1.1320 for a day or two at the beginning of the week and then go down to the first support at 1.1150 and then even lower to 1.1030;
- according to graphical analysis, GBP/USD will first bounce to support at 1.4365 and then return to the upward trend that started in the last decade of January. The target is 1.4670. Both 60% of the analysts and the indicators on H1, H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. In the longer term, most experts tend to believe that the pair will again test the bottom of 1.4100;
- obviously the indicators haven’t yet come around after USD/JPY’s crash of the last two weeks. According to most experts and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its rebound up to resistance at 115.60;
- opinions about USD/CHF are split rather evenly – 40% of the experts are for a rise, 35% are for a fall and 25% are for a sideways trend. A similar pattern is observed with the indicators – a rise on H1, a fall on D1 and a compromise midway on H4 supporting neutral movement. Graphical analysis shows a further upward trend – on H4, the support line of the channel passes through the points of 0.9660 and 0.9720, and the resistance line passes through 0.9755 and 0.9810.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 22-26 February 2016

First, about the forecast for the previous week:
- as for EUR/USD, 35% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H1 and H4 were correct in their forecast that the pair would fall in the last five workdays. As predicted, the pair reached the first support at 1.1150 and then tried to reach the second support at 1.1030 but halfway through it reversed and finished the week at 1.1131;
- the GBP/USD pair’s drop was greater than expected. After breaking through support at 1.4365, the pair fell to 1.4245 and entered a 1.4245-1.4395 sideways channel with a 1.4310 Pivot Point;
- after the crash that started 1 February, the experts hoped that USD/JPY would rebound at least to 115.60 but it couldn’t even reach 115.00. The pair froze at 114.87 for half an hour and moved down again, finishing the week even lower than at the beginning of the week – around 112.55;
- the forecast for USD/CHF by graphical analysis and 40% of the analysts turned out to be totally correct. The pair continued to move upward to 0.9967, took a break and went down to support at 0.9890.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- in the next 2-3 days, EUR/USD can rise a bit and reach resistance at 1.2222 as proposed by graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H1 and H4. In the longer term, the number of supporters of a downtrend grows in proportion to the time interval. Thus, in the weekly timeframe 55% of the experts vote for a fall, in the monthly timeframe it is already 65%, and in the quarterly one it’s 78%. Graphical analysis paints quite an apocalyptic picture on D1 – in the next 2-3 weeks, the pair may totally crash, hitting the bottom at 1.0500;
- as for GBP/USD, 40% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate that now the pair is at the top boundary of a 1.4200-1.4400 channel, along which it will be moving all week. This is echoed by 33% of the indicators on H4 and 75% of them on D1. At the same time, graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that end of this week or early next week, GBP/USD will break through the top boundary of the channel, turn resistance into support and continue its sideways trend in a 1.4400-1.4620 range with a 1.4500 pivot point;
- according to 60% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis, USD/JPY will continue to fall at least to 110.70 (the next support is at 110.00) and then bounce up first to the current level of 112.55 and afterwards higher, the target being 115.00;
- about 70% of the experts tend to believe that USD/CHF will rise first to the key level of 1.0000 and then up to 1.0200. Graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 show that before rising, the pair may spend some time in a 0.9830-0.9930 sideways trend with prevailing bearish sentiment.

Roman Butko, NordFX

NordFX, does your company provide the clients with any no deposit bonuses at the moment?

Dear Wolf, there are no no deposit bonuses at the moment, however, we offer a wide range of various bonuses to our clients, both for forex and binary options, which you can see at our website www.nordfx.com 

Forex Forecast for 29 February - 4 March 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the vast majority of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 predicted a fall for EUR/USD, which happened, and the pair shed more than 200 points during the week;
- the prediction of 40% of the experts and graphical analysis that GBP/USD should bounce down from resistance at 1.4400 proved right. However, under the influence of the news about the UK’s EU membership referendum, instead of entering a sideways trend, the pair easily broke support at 1.4200 and crashed, finishing the week around the lows of 2001 and 2009;
- the forecast for USD/JPY panned out almost 100%. According to it, the pair was supposed to go down to support at 110.70, then shoot up to 112.55 and then even higher, ultimately targeting 115.00. In reality, the pair fell to 111.04, reversed upward, tested resistance at 112.55, broke through it on the second try, turning it into support, and soared up to 114.00;
- graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on H4 and D1 were right about USD/CHF moving in a sideways channel for some time. At the same time, in line with the general trend to regain its position above 1.0000, the pair made several attempts to break through the top boundary of the channel, and it was able to consolidate just above 0.9960 by Friday evening.

Forecast for Coming Week
Generalizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the forecast for EUR/USD for March remains unchanged – first, the pair should break through support at 1.0800 and then at 1.0700, reach the bottom around 1.0500 and try to recover losses by returning to the current level of 1.0930. This scenario is supported by 54% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. As for the coming week, 70% of the analysts expect the pair to bounce up and temporarily return to 1.1066-1.1150. The remaining experts are split evenly – 15% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend;
- all the indicators on H4 and D1 point downward for GBP/USD. The analysts’ opinions are divided, with the bulls having an edge – 50% vote for a rise and 40% for a drop. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, in the next few weeks, the pair will still try to reach the low of 2009 at 1.3500, after which it will return to resistance at 1.4080. With this said, graphical analysis on H1 elaborates that before going downward, the pair may rise a bit and reach 1.3910;
- in their attempt to predict USD/JPY’s movement, both experts and indicators are quite neutral, with somewhat bullish sentiment. Graphical analysis agrees with them overall – USD/JPY should first rise to 114.50 (or even to 115.00) and only then go down to support at 112.55;
- as for USD/CHF, 65% of the experts tend to believe that after reaching the key level of 1.0000, the pair will rebound to another strong level of 0.9800 and only then move up again to 1.0200-1.0300. This is echoed by the indicators and graphical analysis, the latter drawing support 100 points higher at 0.9900.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 7-11 March 2016

For starters, an overview of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD can be counted as fulfilled. Executing the suggested monthly scenario, the pair first tried to break support at 1.0800, failed to do it and moved on to the weekly scenario. According to most experts’ predictions, the pair bounced upward and reached 1.1043 on Friday following the news from the USA;
- as for GBP/USD, those 50% of the experts who had voted for the pair’s rise were right. Although, graphical analysis on H1 supporting them had underestimated the bulls’ power – the pair quickly turned resistance at 1.3910 into support, rebounded off it and got to resistance at 1.4248 by the end of the week;
- the experts and the indicators were neutral in their forecasts for USD/JPY and were quite right. The pair finished the week exactly at the same level it had started from. With a little tolerance, graphical analysis was also correct setting the boundaries of the side channel as 112.55 and 114.50;
- the experts suggested that on reaching the key level of 1.0000, USD/CHF would drop to 0.9800. Graphical analysis agreed elaborating that support could be 100 points higher and proved right – after going down, the pair never managed to drop below a 0.9880-0.9910 resistance zone.


Forecast for Coming Week
Generalizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various types of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the experts are surprisingly unanimous about EUR/USD this time. Most of them (65%) vote for a downtrend both on the weekly and monthly intervals. Graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agrees with them, clarifying that the pair should first descend to around 1.0910, after which it can bounce back to the current level of 1.1010 and enter a sideways trend for some time. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show larger fluctuations – a fall to 1.0710 and a rise to last February’s high of 1.1340;
- there’s unanimity among the analysts regarding GBP/USD. On the weekly and monthly intervals, 60% of them vote for a fall, 30% for a sideways trend and only 10% for a rise. It’s obviously a different story with the indicators – on H1, all of them point to a rise; on H4, their number is 83% and it’s just 50% on D1. Graphical analysis draws a 1.4070-1.4375 side channel whereas first, the pair may fluctuate in a narrower range from 1.4150 to 1.4250;
- according to the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H4, USD/JPY will continue its sideways trend within 113.00-114.50 at the beginning of the week. Only about 20% of the analysts support this. Their overwhelming majority believes that the pair should rise and try to reach 116.00-116.50 while just one analyst expects another fall to support at 111.00;
- most experts (55%) stick with the view that USD/CHF should make it to support at 0.9800 after all. Then it should reverse upwards, break the defence line of 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200 within a month. Graphical analysis agrees with this overall, adjusting support 50 points up at 0.9850.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 14-18 March 2016

First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD was unfolding more or less according to plan till the middle of Thursday – the pair first went down, then rebounded, set two boundaries of the corridor and entered a sideways trend. Specifically on 10 March, following the announcement about the ECB’s decision on interest rates, the pair fell to 1.0821 but then ECB Head Mario Draghi turned the market opinion about and the pair soared by 500 points to 1.1217. Nonetheless, EUR/USD still stayed within the 1.0710-1.1340 channel set by the indicators and graphical analysis on D1;
- the forecast for GBP/USD provided by graphical analysis was the most precise – at the beginning of the week, the pair was supposed to be oscillating in the range from 1.4150 to 1.4250, then rise and reach 1.4375. All this happened for the most part – until Thursday, the pair moved in a 1.4132-1.4275 channel, then went up and finished the week around 1.4380;
- for USD/JPY, graphical analysis on H4 and the indicators on all timeframes pointed to a further sideways trend within a 113.00-114.50 range. In reality, the pair did continue to move in the horizontal channel, virtually repeating the scenario of the previous week. As a result, the amplitude of its fluctuations was slightly greater than the predicted 12.22-114.44. With that, USD/JPY once again finished the week exactly where it had started – at 113.80;
- for two weeks in a row, the experts insisted that USD/CHF should reach the 0.9800 support, which the pair finally did last Thursday.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as the forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- in their forecasts for EUR/USD, 75% of the experts, graphical analysis and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 rely on the idea that the ‘magic’ of Mario Draghi’s words will last another week at least, and the pair will thus rise even more – to 1.1200-1.1240. Some of the more radical analysts suggest that it may even reach early February’s highs near 1.1350. As for the monthly forecast, almost the same 75% of the experts already speak about a drop to around 1.0800-1.1000. In the meantime, 1.1080 can be considered the strongest support level;
- the experts are unanimous about GBP/USD – 75% of them, supported by the indicators, believe that the pair should reach resistance at 1.4500. Graphical analysis elaborates that the pair will briefly stay at this level and, on breaking support at 1.4370, will first go down to 1.4250-1.4370 for some time and then drop more – to support at 1.4120. This scenario is backed by 65% of the analysts;
- there is no agreement among the experts nor the indicators regarding USD/JPY. About half of them are for a rise while the other half are for a fall. As a result, a sideways channel in a range from 111.00 to 114.50 with a 113.25 pivot point is probable. In the longer term, 60% of the analysts believe that the pair will move up to 117.00; 30% propose a drop to 110.00, and the rest 10% aren’t certain;
- the forecast for USD/CHF is 65% of the experts and 95% of the indicators suggest the pair’s fall to support at 0.9700-0.9750, after which it will resume breaking through 1.0000 and return to 1.0100-1.0200.

Roman Butko, NordFX

On 11 March 2016, IAIR Awards held a ceremony in Hong Kong in honor of its winners for 2016. NordFX was recognized as Broker of the Year / Forex Trading India.
IAIR Awards’ motivation for selecting NordFX is – “For consistently meeting the strictest standards of financial stability and proper handling and security of client funds within a transparent, sincere and productive operating structure. Through the offer of the most popular financial instruments trading software, NordFX makes trading more comfortable, convenient and effective for all customers.”
We’re very thankful for this acknowledgement of our efforts and the quality of our services. NordFX always sets as its top priority to provide consistently stable and profitable trading conditions for our customers in India, Asia at large as well as other parts of the world.

Forex Forecast for 21-25 March 2016

First, about last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD proved 100% correct. The main support was set at 1.1080, and the suggested peak for the pair’s rise was at 1.1350. In fact, from Monday to Wednesday, the pair relied on support around 1.1060-1.1080, and then on the news from the USA, it moved up reaching 1.1342, as expected;
- although GBP/USD finally reached the forecast resistance level of 1.4500, it did so only after it dropped considerably, breaking through all the expected support levels and rebounding from a 1.4052 bottom;
- in the forecast for USD/JPY, the 50% of the experts supporting a fall turned out to be right. The pair did drop, made it to support at 111.00, as predicted by the experts, and finished the week at 111.52;
- the USD/CHF pair was supposed to go down to support at 0.9700, which happened. The pair even overdid it a bit – it dropped 50 points going down to 0.9650 and entered a sideways trend, carefully sticking to the 0.9700 area just as the analysts had said.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- the experts' opinions about EUR/USD are divided – about 40% of them are for a rise, another 40% are for a fall, and the remaining 20% support a sideways trend. As for the indicators, 75% of them on H4 and 100% on D1 point upwards. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with it, setting the target as last August’s high of 1.1700. With this, according to graphical analysis on H4, before starting to rise, EUR/USD may bounce off resistance at 1.1380 and fall to 1.1130. In the longer term, most analysts still tend to believe the pair will go down at least to 1.0500 in the next few months;
- according to graphical analysis and 55% of the experts, GBP/USD may first move in a 1.4360-1.4650 sideways channel for several days and then drop sharply to 1.4230. The long-term forecast, supported by 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1, suggests the pair should fall even more attempting to reach 1.3840, the low of the end of last February;
- it’s obvious that the indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, most analysts and graphical analysis on D1 reckon that the pair has almost reached its bottom and will be moving in a 110.00-113.00 sideways channel for some time;
- graphical analysis on H4 and 70% of the experts insist that USD/CHF should rise at least to resistance at 0.9850, with the ultimate target of moving above the key level of 1.0000. Support remains at 0.9650.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 28 March - 1 April 2016

First, an overview of last week’s forecast:
- regarding EUR/USD, those 40% of the experts that predicted a fall were right. The forecast of graphical analysis on H4 also turned out correct, indicating that last week’s bottom would be around 1.1130. On Thursday, the pair almost reached this level, stopping at 1.1143;
- the forecasts about GBP/USD’s sharp drop panned out 100%. The pair paused briefly at the lower boundary of the sideways channel – at 1.4360, broke through it and plunged to support at 1.4230. Then, trying to reach last February’s lows, it went even further down to 1.4080;
- the analysts and graphical analysis claimed that USD/JPY had reached its bottom and therefore should bounce upwards to 113.00, which happened. The pair wrapped up the week at 113.03;
- the USD/CHF pair was predicted to rise to 0.9850. The pair was just short of it when it got to 0.9786 on Friday. Thus, this forecast can be considered as fulfilled at least by 90%.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- this week will be filled with releases of various important economic data. Perhaps, that is why there is no consensus among the experts regarding EUR/USD. Thus, 55% of them insist on the pair’s rise and transition to 1.1340-1.1470. The rest of the analysts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4, on the other hand, point to a possible fall to 1.1055. In this case, there may be a slight rise to resistance at 1.1220 before the fall;
- according to the analysts, the prospects for GBP/USD seem quite ambiguous – 40% of the analysts are for a rise, about the same number are for a drop and 20% predict a sideways trend. However, the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 clearly point down. With this, GBP/USD may go up slightly to 1.4170-1.4240, then it should move downwards – first to support at 1.4070, then to 1.3970 and further down to last February’s lows around 1.3850;
- the experts’ opinions about USD/JPY are split almost equally. Graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 show a sideways channel with two scenarios for the boundaries – fluctuations around 112.30-113.50 on H4 and around 110.70-114.00 on D1 with gradual consolidation near support. In the longer term, both graphical analysis and 70% of the experts point to USD/JPY’s subsequent sharp rebound from the lower boundary up to 117.00, which may happen in the second half of April;
- there is nothing new for USD/CHF – 65% of the experts, graphical analysis and 70% of the indicators on H4 predict a rise first to resistance at 0.9880 and then further to 1.0100. Support is still at 0.9650 like last week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Forex Forecast for 4-8 April 2016

Overview of last week’s predictions:
- in the previous forecast, 55% of the experts insisted that EUR/USD should rise and transition into 1.1340-1.1470, and they were right. On Friday, the pair went up to 1.1438, bounced down to support at 1.1335 and stopped almost in the middle of this range – at 1.1392;
- all of March GBP/USD performed large-scale fluctuations, which perplexed many analysts. Last week, the pair acted in a similar way – first, it rose by 340 points and then dropped by 290 points;
- technical analysis on H4 pointed to USD/JPY moving within a 112.30-113.50 range while D1 showed a wider range of 110.70-114.00 with gradual consolidation around support. The pair completed the week right in-between – it bounced off resistance at 113.80, moved down and stopped at 111.60;
- USD/CHF moved in an unexpected manner. Instead of a rise, it broke through support at 0.9650 and fell by another 60 points, ending the week at 0.9587.

Upcoming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- according to 70% of the experts, 90% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, the EUR/USD pair is predicted to rise at least to 1.1500. At the same time, half of these experts and graphical analysis reckon that the pair can aim even higher at 1.1700, with strong support of 1.1400. Conversely, the remaining 30% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 consider 1.1400 as strong resistance from which the pair should drop sharply to support at 1.1165. The beginning of the week will make it clear which scenario will play out;
- the indicators and graphical analysis predict a fall for GBP/USD. However, only 40% of the experts agree with this while the rest of them are on the other side of the fence. Nonetheless, all of them believe that the amplitude of the pair's fluctuations will remain within the boundaries of past three weeks. In the longer term, technical analysis and more than half of the experts still expect the pair to fall to last February’s lows around 1.3850;
- the forecast of graphical analysis on D1 for USD/JPY stays unchanged – first, fluctuations within the 110.70-114.00 range with gradual consolidation near support and then a sharp bounce from the lower boundary up to 117.00. This is supported by 100% of the indicators and 65% of the experts who also warn that the upswing may not happen before the second half of April or early May;
- about 40% of the experts, together with the indicators, believe that USD/CHF hasn’t completed its fall yet and the bottom is last October’s lows around 1.9485. The remaining 60% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 are sure that it's time for the pair to go up – first to 0.9740 and then further to resistance at 0.9880. Support is 0.9570.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals for March 2016
Overview by NordFX Expert

The MQL5 Signals service integrated into the MetaTrader platform is becoming more and more popular as it allows even amateurish investors to collect profits by automatically copying experienced traders’ signals. It takes just a few clicks to subscribe to one or more such signals. On its face, it looks as easy as it can get. However, practice shows that in pursuit of grand profits, subscribers rather often fail to assess risks correctly. To help to avoid such mistakes, we regularly publish ratings of the most sought-after signals, complementing them with comments by a professional – NordFX leading analyst John Gordon.
The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for March 2016 is presented below.
I. Green Line Signals (increase 668%, 296 subscribers),
II. Pound Aussie Real (increase 855%, 274 subscribers),
III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (increase 49%, 225 subscribers),
IV. Magic profits (increase 14133%, 180 subscribers),
V. Q2FX (increase 1300%, 126 subscribers),
IV. Geylani (increase 81%, 112 subscribers),
VII. LidziyaForex (increase 113%, 89 subscribers),
VIII. George Soros (increase 1986%, 76 subscribers),
IX. HnGcg (increase 58%, 75 subscribers),
X. Night Hunter (increase 313%, 73 subscribers).
Six of the current leading signal providers were in the February top 10 as well. They are:
- Green Line Signals jumped from the 5th place to number one;
- Pound Aussie Real went up to the 2nd place from the 4th in February;
- MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 kept its 3rd position;
- Magic profits swapped the 8th place for the 4th in March.
Two signals, on the contrary, lost positions – LidziyaForex forfeited the top place and dropped to the 7th while HnGcg moved to the 9th place from the 6th.
“I’ll begin the overview with two signals from the March and February top lists, – says the NordFX leading analyst. – Last month, I was surprised by LidziyaForex’s popularity among the subscribers who had invested over a million dollars in it. I also urged to evaluate all risks before signing up for this signal provider.
The fact is that this signal has been around only since last December and its maximum drawdown is as much as 57%. Analysis of the trades has shown that most often the provider simply waits for a losing position to become winning and locks in losses only in an emergency.
Unfortunately, my worst fears got confirmed in March – a 45% loss is a serious financial blow for the subscribers. Those who signed up early are actually lucky as they are still sitting on profits while those who subscribed over the last few weeks lost almost half of their investments. As a result, three quarters of the subscribers unfollowed LidziyaForex. Moreover, the signal provider seems to have thrown in the towel too by announcing that as of 1 May, the signal would cease to exist.
With this, I have a déjà vu feeling about March’s new leader Green Line Signals – it reminds me of LidziyaForex that much. Consider: the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%.
Nevertheless, subscriber feedback about this signal is mostly positive, which can be explained by impressive growth – about 700% in three months. Still, it’s not all that great as it may sound: +220% in January, ¬+96% in February and slightly more than 25% in March. It’s called the reverse martingale, a strategy when the trader boldly builds up the initial deposit amount but then starts reducing risks gradually, so profits drop too consequently. Time will tell whether I’m right in this case.
In terms of stable profits, it’s worth mentioning the signal Magic profits. It’s about 3.5 years old, and it’s some assurance of reliability. The ratio of winning and losing months is 40 to 1, average growth is 10-20% a month, and the only loss was under 10%. Hence, such a remarkable result. Subscribers don’t need to be concerned by quite a large number of trades – about 180 a week. The signal provider averages positions and opens series of orders with a small lot size. What’s not so good about Magic profits is its maximum drawdown of 58%. It’s easy to reduce risks here – go to the trading terminal settings and reduce maximum deposit load for signal copying. Naturally, profits will get smaller but it makes sense in this case. For example, by reducing the load to 50%, the subscriber can count on 130-210% in profits per year with a possible drawdown of about 30%. Quite decent figures, in fact.
Out of the newcomers, the signal Q2FX is interesting in terms of the growth to drawdown ratio – 1,300% growth in 7 months and a 10% drawdown. Its trading results indicate that here a grid expert advisor may be used that opens lots of pending orders while averaging positions.
Night Hunter is reasonably good too – growth of 313% in a year and a half, with a 40% drawdown. In this case, though, the correlation of deposits of the provider and the subscriber has to be taken into account, otherwise the $30 subscription may turn this signal into a losing one.
This doesn’t concern the following three signals – MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842, HnGcg and Geylani. I suppose it’s because of free subscriptions that they got into the top 10, considering that their trading results aren’t off the charts.
Finally, George Soros is noteworthy due to the fact that it lies in the 8th place in the subscribers’ ratings and in the 2nd place in the ratings by MetaQuotes, the developer of MT4 and MT5. The signal has been yielding rather stable profits for almost a year. The biggest drawdown of 36% happened last December. In the first 3 months of 2016, the signal produced 90% growth with a drawdown under 20%.”
John Gordon sums up, “In conclusion, I’d like to remind that before subscribing to a signal, it’s important to carefully study online monitoring data, assess potential risks and set maximum deposit load and maximum loss in the trading terminal settings. All this will make you feel much more confident as a passive investor.”

New conditions of the Affiliate Program

Dear Partners and Customers,
Thank you for being part of the NordFX Affiliate Program! We are pleased to announce that as of 11 April 2016, new conditions of the Affiliate Program come into effect and partner commissions will be almost doubled! This is the most significant upgrade in the history of our Affiliate Program.
The basic commissions increase as follows:
• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
VIP partners get even more attractive terms:
• For “Micro” – commission 50% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – commission 40%!
Current NordFX partners will be transferred to the new conditions automatically.
The updated terms and the revised Partner Agreement can be viewed in detail on the website http://nordfxpartners.com/ .
We trust that you will see value in such a major improvement of the partner conditions and considerably increase your revenues from the NordFX Affiliate Program.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 April 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- the forecast for EUR/USD suggested that the battle line for the bulls and the bears would be drawn at 1.1400. However, the fact that they were actually equal in force was a surprise. As a result, neither of them could gain the upper hand and the week started and ended at the same level of 1.1400;
- the forecast that GBP/USD will be moving towards last February’s lows is starting to pan out. Last Wednesday, the pair sharply reached 1.4000 but, as expected, it quickly returned to the sideways channel, in which it has been moving for the last three weeks;
- the predictions for USD/JPY turned out incorrect. The pair reached the 110.70 support very fast but then, spurred by economic news from Japan, easily broke through it and went further down, finishing the week around 108.00;
- the USD/CHF pair demonstrated a sluggish sideways trend, making minor fluctuations around a 0.9570 pivot point.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summarizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the W1 chart for EUR/USD clearly shows an ascending channel that started to form at the beginning of last December. Now the pair is basically at its top boundary. According to graphical analysis on H4 and D1, after rebounding from it, the pair should go down to the central line of 1.1135 and then return to 1.1500. The experts still hold onto the pivot point of 1.1400, indicating a sideways channel with quite a narrow range of 1.1320-1.1500;
- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 65% of the experts, 100% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining experts believe that the pair will continue to fluctuate in March’s range of 1.4050-1.4450;
- it is clear that all indicators point down for USD/JPY. Two-thirds of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree and reckon that the pair should reach the bottom at 105.50. Graphical analysis warns that a short-term surge up to resistance at 111.00 is possible before that. The longer-term forecast remains in force – USD/JPY should return to 114.70-117.00 in late April - early May;
- about 80% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4 continue to wait for USD/CHF to bounce upward. The next target is to return to around 0.9800. Support is at 0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 April 2016

Overview of Last Week’s Forecast
- EUR/USD was predicted to move down to the central line of the ascending channel that started to form last December and is now clearly visible on W1. The pair did drop sharply but didn’t reach the target of 1.1135. Instead, it stalled at support 1.1250;
- the one third of the experts were correct saying that GBP/USD would not go beyond the boundaries of March’s side channel of 1.4050-1.4450. With that, the pair narrowed the range of its fluctuations even more, keeping within 1.4090-1.4350;
- graphical analysis proved right about USD/JPY’s possible surge upward. In fact, the pair went up but that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the momentum fizzled out after 200 points at 109.70;
- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out. At last, the long-awaited bounce off the 0.9500 support happened, and the pair went on to break through resistance at 0.9650, turn it into support and wrap up the week at 0.9680.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- EUR/USD is very likely to continue its ascending movement for the fifth month in a row. Now the pair is just above the channel’s central line of 1.1135-1.1150. According to 50% of the experts, the pair should come down to it, then bounce off and go to the upper boundary of the channel. The indicators on H4 agree with this. The other half of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 reckon that EUR/USD may move upward almost immediately. The first resistance is at 1.1350, the second – at 1.1450, and the upper boundary of the channel is near 1.1600;
- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 85% of the experts already (versus 65% last week), 80% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining 15% of the analysts believe that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, with support at 1.4050;
- all indicators on H4 and D1 point down for USD/JPY. Only 30% of the experts back them while the rest 70% predict that the pair’s rebound will end only after it reaches resistance at 111.00. Graphical analysis concurs and elaborates that this may take about a week. Now support is at 108.70. If it’s broken through, USD/JPY may first fall by 100 points and then reach the bottom at 106.70. However, the latter may happen in early May;
- about 70% of the experts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 and D1 predict that USD/CHF will continue its upward movement and attempt to get to 0.9800. Then, according to graphical analysis on D1, the pair may return to the 0.9500 support.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe;
- despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row;
- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76;
- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796.

Forecast for Coming Week
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:
- according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900;
- even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May;
- it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70;
- about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out.

Roman Butko, NordFX

HSBC Shares: Perspectives for 2016

HSBC is a major multinational financial organization that lends services to over 48 million customers throughout the world. The group has 6,100 offices in 72 countries and territories across Europe, Asia, the Middle East as well as North and Latin America. With this, according to The Telegraph, 80% of the group’s profits come from Asia.
HSBC’s activities are carried out within four business spheres:
- Retail Banking and Wealth Management;
- Commercial Banking;
- Global Banking and Markets;
- Global Private Banking.
HSBC Holdings plc shares are listed on the London, Hong Kong, New York, Paris and Bermuda stock exchanges. The number of shareholders are over 213,000 from more than 130 countries.
The biggest constituent of HSBC Holdings is its subsidiary HSBC Bank. A year ago, this major bank in the UK was at the center of a scandal after it was reported that its Swiss arm helped some clients avoid taxes by allowing them to withdraw huge amounts of cash.
That obviously couldn’t but alarm HSBC shareholders. However, according to The Guardian, there was no formal action from the City regulator, which brought some relief for investors and consolidated HSBC’s market power. Nonetheless, The Financial Times reports that the White House and President Obama aren’t going to hush it up ahead of the new presidential elections in the USA.
Despite the possibility of a further investigation, one of the world leading rating agencies Standard & Poor's has quite a positive outlook for HSBC. S&P analysts say that although HSBC Bank’s credit rating dropped very low, they expect it to be upgraded especially if global economic and geopolitical risks solidify. For the time being, S&P has confirmed its long-term credit rating for the bank and kept it as ‘stable.’
Ian Gordon, banking analyst at Investec, adds that HSBC is an attractive investment, that’s why they have £40 million invested in the shares. Lately HSBC has been criticized for a number of money-losing businesses in its structure. However, HSBC has decided to sell its Brazil operation for $5.2 billion, which is considered a good sign. Furthermore, Ian Gordon believes that HSBC shares can go up alongside UK interest rates, a few of which are expected (0.25% each) in 2016. So the Investec analyst predicts the price of HSBC shares will rise by 10% or more. His target is £6.35p a share.
“We offer our customers HSBC shares for binary options trading,” says John Gordon, leading analyst from international broker company NordFX. “While my colleague and namesake from Investec looks at how many percentage points the price of shares may gain, numbers aren’t of primary importance for us. What matters is that the price moves in the desired direction. We carefully analyze actions of such major market players as Investec, BNP Paribas, Barclays Capital, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Societe Generale, Nomura and others. Their opinions are divided, although there is a leaning toward buying HSBC shares. Thus, 20% of investors want to sell, 50% are on the fence and 30% actively buy the shares.”
The NordFX analyst continues, “For the past year, there were many discussions about transferring the HSBC headquarters from London to Hong Kong where it had been located before 1993. Ultimately it was decided to stay in London. With this, any optimization of the current HSBC business model may have a positive impact on potential profits and lead to a dynamic rise of HSBC shares.”

April 2016: Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals
Overview by NordFX Expert

It’s always fascinating to watch people make choices and then try to understand their reasons and motives. In this case, it’s not about presidential elections of course but about subscription to trading signals provided by the eponymous service integrated in MetaTrader 4.
As common knowledge goes, all money-related matters call for special attention, and autocopying of trades is no exception. Logically, you simply select a signal provider with some of the largest profits and replicate his trades. The question is whether it’s always the best solution. John Gordon, leading analyst at international broker company NordFX, shares his views on it.
The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for April 2016 are presented below.
I. Pound Aussie Real (growth 927%, 502 subscribers),
II. Green Line Signals (growth 42%, 478 subscribers),
III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 61%, 336 subscribers),
IV. Asia Balance (growth 339%, 157 subscribers),
V. Q2FX (growth 1403%, 117 subscribers),
VI. F Cracker (growth 20%, 96 subscribers),
VII. MWsclp (growth 41%, 84 subscribers),
VIII. CB06143 (growth 294%, 80 subscribers),
IX. Night Hunter (growth 329%, 72 subscribers),
X. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 20%, 54 subscribers).
John Gordon says, “In comparison with March, the two leaders Pound Aussie Real and Green Line Signals switched places. The former gained a position while the latter moved down, although, in my opinion, it may drop out of the top 10 by far in the next month. I doubt that someone would want to renew subscription to a signal that has lost 84% of the deposit amount in one go.
In the previous analysis, I urged to be very careful with subscription to Green Line Signals, the reasons being a short lifespan of the signal and nearly marginal drawdowns. The large number of subscribers can be explained only by their desire to get rich fast as in the 3 months of existence, the signal provider recorded impressive profits of almost 700%. However, the finale is quite typical for strategies based on the Martingale system or averaging of positions – the initial hundreds of percentage points have dwindled down to just 42%. It follows that all who subscribed to Green Line Signals in February, March and April have lost all their investments. Only January subscribers have been able to preserve their capitals.
The signal Pound Aussie Real seems to be more stable. Still, the maximum drawdown of 44% raises some concerns as well. I’d like to point out that a large drawdown is not so rare for the signal. As recently as April there was a flop of 27.5%, with a mere 1.4% profit.
The signals MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 and Q2FX have kept their positions after March. The former has increased its profitability by a modest 5%, and the latter – by 6%. With this, it should be noted that the maximum drawdowns of both signals are quite sensible – 19% and 10.4% respectively, which reduces investment risks considerably. ¬
F Cracker is in the 6th place. I think this is rather a peculiar signal. It’s just over a month old, the drawdown is 21%, growth is 20% but there are 96 subscribers already! I believe it has to do with an effective promotional campaign by the signal provider and possibly with the participation in affiliate programs.
MWsclp is a free long-lived signal that has been producing 10-15% growth per month for the past 5 months. Nonetheless, it hadn’t demonstrated anything remarkable during the year before and its profits have been at zero on average.
There’s a very interesting signal I’d like to draw your attention to – CB06143. Its operating principle is, “Less is more.” Profits are from 1 to 10% a month, a respectable lifespan of about 2 years and a phenomenal drawdown of 4.5%.
Lastly, the signal LVIK Forex Commo ended up in the top 10 most likely because it’s 2 years old and its drawdown is slightly above 10%. However, its profits are quite modest – only 20% over 111 weeks. The upside is free subscription.”
“In conclusion,” says John Gordon, “what could (and should) be emphasized is the common thread of this overview: it’s important to do proper money management and not to chase big profits; it’s important to regulate risks in the MT4 settings (first off, adjusting maximum deposit load) and select signal providers with a reputable history (60, 80, 100 and more weeks). Luckily, they are well-represented on the MetaTrader list.”

Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 May 2016

First, a review of last week’s predictions:
- graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 were 100% right in their forecast for EUR/USD. According to them, the pair was supposed to bounce off support at 1.1200 and move on to resistance at 1.1450. In fact, the pair started from 1.1217 on Monday and completed the week at 1.1451;
- defying the forecasts of most analysts who all of the past month insisted on GBP/USD’s move to last February’s lows, the pair continued its upswing, broke through resistance at 1.4450 and quickly reached last February’s high of 1.4670;
- the USD/JPY pair fully confirmed the predictions of graphical analysis and the experts who believed that the pair would bounce off resistance at 112.00, go down to support at 110.60 and even further to 107.70. Due to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on interest rates, USD/JPY not only met but actually exceeded the expectations and was just short of 100.90-105.30, i.e. the sideways channel of 2014;
- in the forecast for USD/CHF graphical analysis on D1 indicated that 0.9800 would become insurmountable resistance, the pair would bounce off it and go down to support at 0.9500. It did happen – USD/CHF consistently moved down all week long and reached the weekly low of 0.9567 on Friday.

Forecast for Upcoming Week
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- the experts’ opinions about EUR/USD are split almost equally – 45% are for a rise to 1.1550-1.1650, another 45% are for a fall to the levels of 1.1200-1.1300, and the remaining 10% are for a further sideways trend. Graphical analysis on W1 and MN shows clearly that EUR/USD is at the top boundary of the horizontal channel within which the pair has been moving since January 2015. Thus, 1.1450 may become strong resistance, bouncing off which the pair will move to the central line of the channel at 1.1000. It should be noted that the coming week is full of important economic events, including the release of US employment data, which may have a significant impact on virtually all USD pairs;
- the analysts differ about GBP/USD – 40% are for a fall, 40% are for a rise to 1.5000 whereas 20% and graphical analysis on H4 are for a sideways trend within 1.4500-1.4660. In the longer term, 75% of the experts believe the pair will go down while graphical analysis elaborates that the main support will be at 1.4200;
- there is no consensus among the experts regarding USD/JPY either. As for the indicators, all of them obviously point down after the pair’s sharp fall. With this, according to graphical analysis on D1, one can expect the pair to bounce to 109.00-110.00 and then try to reach the low of 105.00 again;
- about 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that USD/CHF should make another attempt at consolidating above 0.9800. The main resistance will be at 0.9900 in this case. However, graphical analysis on H4 indicates that this can happen only after the pair rebounds from support around 0.9520-0.9500.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Oil Price Hike: To Be or Not to Be?

In 1870, John D. Rockefeller founded the Standard Oil Company that became the largest monopoly in the petroleum industry. After 135 years, in the fall of 2014, Rockefeller’s heirs called off their investments in fossil fuels. They explained the decision by the fact that clean renewable energy was phasing out oil-based wealth. It appears they are right as the price of Brent crude oil fell to $35 a barrel in January 2016 from $95 in September 2014.
However, considering the fluctuations of the price of black gold when Standard Oil was established, it stands to reason that after a major dip there may come an equally major rise. Thus, in 1861, the price of oil was about $15 (measured in 2015 dollars), soared to $120 just 5 years later, then dropped to $40 and rose again by 1870 – to $80 a barrel. Nowadays, starting from 1971, we’ve been observing similar volatility.

What will actually happen to oil prices? This question is asked by many as the price direction has an impact not only on currency exchange rates, stock market indices, prices of shares but also on the fortunes of whole nations and countries.
John Gordon, leading analyst at international broker company NordFX, says, “In fact, there were some positive price dynamics early this year but it’s still difficult to make any definitive predictions. Experts’ opinions differ drastically. For instance, not so long ago the Bloomberg agency spread the word that oil market profiteers began to buy short contracts that would pay off only if the price of oil plunged to $15 a barrel. On the other hand, according to experts from Austria’s Raiffeisen Banking Group, over two years the price may reach $100.”
These are extreme views while most forecasts aren’t that opposite and range within the amounts of $40-60. As such, Moody's Investors Service believes that the price of one barrel in 2016 will be $43. About the same figure of $45 is sounded by Russia’s largest oil producing company Rosneft. The World Bank puts it even higher, although it downgraded the outlook from $57 to $52.
Swiss UBS Group AG gives quite an optimistic forecast. Its specialists think that by the third quarter of 2016, the oil market will balance out and the price will settle within $60-67. Michael Hulme, a fund manager at Carmignac Gestion, a French investment group, shared a similar opinion with The Times, “On a 12 to 18-month view, oil prices should normalize back to the marginal cost of supply of at least $60." Mohammed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, raises the bar even higher. He doesn’t reckon that the price of oil will return to $100 a barrel and suggests $70-80 for 2016.
John Gordon from NordFX sums up, “If all positive forecasts are put together, the average price of oil comes to about $60 a barrel. There’re actually reasons to be hopeful. Sure, a lot hinges on the output by the USA and OPEC countries. One can’t overlook such factor as production costs which, for example, average at $57-58 for US shale oil fields. At this time, the USA and the OPEC still can sell oil at the price below production costs and make up for it by profits from futures contracts sold earlier. However, this can’t go on forever as the price of futures dropped as well.”
Besides oil companies, exporting countries also need to regain their positions and replenish coffers. For one, Venezuela is in a catastrophic situation, and the government officially declared a humanitarian crisis in the country. Under these circumstances, the OPEC can’t help but cut production quotas. Its experts believe that the United States too will reduce output by over 400,000 barrels a day this year.
“When making investment decisions, among other things it’s important to take into account that energy commodity prices markedly affect not only exchange cross rates but the biggest stock markets as well,” says the NordFX analyst. “Alongside Forex services, our company offers binary options trading with such assets as shares of leading oil and industrial companies as well as all major stock indices. Charts clearly show a correlation between their quotes and oil prices – the US stock market declines when oil prices go down and, conversely, is on the rise when the price of black gold climbs up.”
This being said, many experts warn that a rapid hike in oil prices shouldn’t be counted on. In his interview for the Edmonton Journal, FirstEnergy Capital’s analyst Martin King told that before a rise, prices might drop to $30 again. Active growth can be expected only in the third and fourth quarters 2016.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 16 - 20 May 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, as it often happens, graphical analysis turned out to be the most accurate, having predicted the return of the pair to the Pivot Point of February - May at the level of 1.1280. It was that value - 1.1282 - that the pair reached on Friday and, after several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, it completed the five-day period in the 1.1310 area;
■ with regard to GBP/USD, having returned to the key support / resistance zone for the entire 2016, near 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500, the pair fluctuated around Pivot Point 1.4440 for nearly the whole week. However, at the end of the week, it remembered that most analysts and all the tools of technical analysis had unanimously voted for continuation of its fall. As a result, denoting a bearish trend, the pair moved to the south and recorded the weekly low at 1.4340;
■ forecast for USD/JPY turned out to be only partly true. It had been assumed that at the beginning of the week the pair should go up to the 108.00 resistance, and it obediently did so. But then, instead of showing a rebound down, the pair broke this level and moved sideways in the 108.25 ÷ 109.40 channel;
■ predicting the behaviour of USD/CHF, the majority of experts together with technical and graphical analysis continued to insist on a quest of the pair to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair indeed made several desperate attempts to achieve this significant level, however, the maximum result, which it managed to achieve for the whole week, was the height of 0.9774, located just 26 points below the coveted height.

Forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
■ throughout May experts have not managed to form any consensus on the future of EUR/USD. The same thing happened this time: 45% of them with the support of 100% of indicators on H4 vote for pair falling to the level of 1.1200, 20% of analysts - for the sideways trend, and 35% - for the pair's growth to the height of 1.1380. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with the latter, its readings say that the pair must demonstrate a smooth rebound from the 1.1280 support. If we talk about a long-term forecast, the opinion of the majority of experts (70%) remains the same - reduction of pair to the zone 1.1000 ÷ 1.1100;
■ but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the outlook remains virtually the same as last week - a continuation of the pair's fall to the area 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a rebound to the 1.4500 resistance. With this agree both 65% of analysts, and graphical analysis on D1;
■ USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair's movement in the sideways channel 107.00 ÷ 109.50 in the next few days. At this, the pair, with high probability, will demonstrate a bearish mood, which will result in an attempt to break through the 105.50 support and go down to the lows of early May - in the area of 105.50 ÷ 106.00;
■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything here remains the same - 60% of the experts, 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 and 65% of indicators continue to insist that the pair should reach the level of 0.9800. At this graphical analysis on D1 warns that after a few days in this area, a strong rebound to the south may follow, as a result of which, as it happened in March and April, the pair will drop to the 2016 lower boundary of the sideways channel - to the zone 0.9500 ÷ 0.9585. The nearest support is at the level of 0.9650.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 23 - 27 May 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
- as to the forecast for EUR/USD, last week there was no consensus in regards to its future. Surprisingly all predictions panned out. 35% of experts backed by graphical analysis reckoned that the pair would gradually bounce off the support of 1.1280 and move towards the resistance of 1.1380, and earlier this week the pair did went upwards and reached the mark of 1.1348. The other 45% of analysts voted for the pair’s fall to the level of 1.1200, which virtually happened in the latter half of the week – the pair wrapped up the week fluctuating within the range of 1.1200 - 1.1230;
- as to GBP/USD, 65% of experts predicted the pair’s drop to the area of 1.4250 - 1.4300, following which a rebound to the support of 1.4500 should occur. However the pair decided to jump the gun and after declining only to the level of 1.4330 it soared and reached the high of 1.4500, then it made a second breakthrough heaving upwards by further 165 points, following which it returned to 1.4500 - the target level of experts. By the way, it’s interesting to look at M1 charts of different brokers for this pair: in the last minute of the week session we may see a candle moving down to the mark of 1.4487 on some brokers’ charts, and some brokers’ charts vice versa show a candle moving up to 1.4513. As to NordFX quotes, they ended the week at the level of 1.4490;
- in the last minute of the session similar various readings were seen in regards to USD/JPY. As to the forecast for this pair, it turned out to be only partly correct. Earlier in the week the pair was expected to move in a sideway channel of 107.00 - 109.50, and it did so. But then, instead of rebounding downwards, the pair, supported by news from the USA, broke the resistance of 109.50 and transited into sideways movement within the range of 109.70 - 110.50;
- predicting the way USD/CHF would act, the majority of experts along with technical analysis continued to insist on the pair’s attempt to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. And that forecast was 100% fulfilled – in the middle of the week the pair reached this benchmark level and went further upwards – to the high of 0.9922. As to the end of the week, it became a focus of attention due to plunging of quotes of several brokers by 15 – 20 points during last minutes of the session.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- predicting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of experts backed by 75% of indicators insist on continuation of a descending trend for this pair. They reckon that the pair should fall at least to the level of 1.1100, and it even may go down further 100 points. As for the other experts and graphical analysis, according to their opinion the pair had already reached a local bottom and thus its upwards rebound to the area of 1.1300 - 1.1330 should happen;
- as to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the technical and graphical analysis on D1 concurs and elaborates that the pair would continue its movement in an ascending channel, which had started late February this year. According to this forecast, backed by 65% of experts, the pair would insistently try to reach the high of 1.1500, however this movement may take up to several weeks. As to the shorter-term forecast, the experts do not rule out the chance that the level of 1.4500 may turn from support into resistance for a while (pay attention to divergence of quotes when the last session had been closed). If this scenario plays out, then the key support will be 1.1440, and the next support - 1.4325;
- USD/JPY - here, according to the majority of experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair moving in the sideway channel alongside pivot point of 109.00 within next days. The main support will be at 107.70, resistance – at 111.00;
- as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was – as it was mentioned in previous reviews, the pair may stick to the side channel for a while, with the support of 0.9800 and the resistance level within 0.9900 - 0.9920, whereafter it should go south to the support of 0.9700. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 shows that afterwards it may again return to the benchmark level of 0.9800 bouncing off which it may plunge down to the mark of 0.9500, this movement may take up to 3 weeks.
Roman Butko, NordFX

May 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Through the Eyes of NordFX Analyst

It's believed that there are no large drawdowns, but there are small deposits. Let's consider the following example: a drawdown of 90 dollars with a deposit of $100 is a disaster, if the deposit makes $1000 the drawdown is reasonable 9%, and if it makes $10000 then the latter may be ignored.
Traders who trade manually or with expert advisers, using averaging of positions or martingale, will confirm that you should not count on any profit if an account lacks decent funds. The deposit may become at risk of any mighty move of the market. And if we open the ‘Signals’ tab on MT4 and look which of them feature subscription, it becomes clear that a half of providers of these signals trade using the same averaging or martingale system.
Certainly, these high-risk strategies are able to bring both quick profit, and a similar quick zeroing of the account. So how do we reduce the risks? The leading analyst of the international broker company NordFX, John Gordon, discusses this very thing in his monthly reviews.
According to the results of May 2016, TOP 10 most popular signals with subscribers are the following:

I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 64%, 447 subscribers),
II. Pound Aussie Real (growth 1010%, 170 subscribers),
III. Small to BIG Money (growth 269%, 158 subscribers),
IV. Fusion Project (growth 397%, 155 subscribers),
V. Green Line Signals (growth 77%, 125 subscribers),
VI. MAXI (growth 586%, 103 subscribers),
VII. Lemar Investment Group (growth 809%, 95 subscribers),
VIII. Q2FX (growth 1482%, 90 subscribers),
IX. Asia Balance (growth 432%, 82 subscribers),
X. CB06143 (growth 309%, 79 subscribers).

"MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 is considered to be a ‘fixture’, J. Gordon states, "ranking among TOP 10 throughout 2016. It doesn't look so attractive against many other signals. Wherein others show growth of hundreds and thousands of per cents, it showed growth of only 17% within last five months (from 47% in January to 64% in May), and at the same time it appeared to top the popularity rating. Why? I think there are three reasons for it:
- the first one is a life time of a signal, 112 weeks in the market without loss of a deposit is already a certain guarantee;
- the second reason is a very small drawdown. It didn't exceed 19% during these two years;
- the third one - subscription to this signal is absolutely free.
Therewith it should be noted that it is clearly not scalping, the average time of position holding makes 3 days. Generally, the author of MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 has been working rather steadily. As a comparison, there is none of seven signals with a yield of around 2000% and more, included into January rating, in a current TOP 10. So, there is a lot to be thought over.”
“As to other signals”, NordFX analyst continues, “Pound Aussie Real and Green Line Signals are firmly fixed among top performers ranking among TOP 10 for the fourth month in a row. And one more signal is Q2FX, it has been steadily retaining its position among the TOP 10 for the third month.”
“As for Green Line Signals, in my previous comments I insistently recommended to think twice before subscribing to it. And I proved right about it. Due to aggressive trading, the signal lost around 85% of the deposit. This is a rather typical final for the strategies based on martingale or averaging of positions, and therefore the previous 700% turned into just a few tens of percent. It means that all the users subscribed to Green Line Signals in February, March and April lost their money, and only January subscribers, apparently, only the remaining 125 subscribers out of almost 500, who had been subscribed to that signal a month ago, could preserve their capital.
Pound Aussie Real signal seems to be more stable. However it should be used cautiously as a high drawdown is quite common for it, and in May it reached its high of 57%. For those subscribers whose deposits include bonus such a drawdown can be critical.
Currently Q2FX seems to be a more preferable trading signal against previous ones with pretty impressive profit and quite admissible drawdown around 10%.
Small to BIG Money signal took the third place in May rating. To my mind, it is too early for any significant conclusions. This signal exists only three weeks, therewith 388 transactions out of 494 (i.e. around 80%) were made during one day - on May 3, bringing a huge chunk of profit. So far Small to BIG Money shows a moderate drawdown – it is less than 8%, however due to slippage the results of subscribers can turn out to be not so impressive.
Fusion Project signal shows a pretty good performance – there is no hedging, no martingale, average yield makes around 50% per month with the maximum drawdown of less than 10%. The only drawback is a sufficiently short life time of the signal, but it can be fixed if a trader operates properly", John Gordon points out.
“MAXI signal is somewhat similar to Fusion Project - manual trading without a grid and averaging, growth makes around 60% per month with a drawdown of 22%.
By the way, as to the maximum drawdown, it shouldn't be perceived as a certain constant", John Gordon sums up. "For example, in the last review I praised CB06143 signal because its drawdown didn't exceed 4.5% during two years of life. We must admit that this result is stellar. But just a few days ago its deposit drew down by 21.22% and one of the most important indicators was slightly spoiled. However, CB06143 still has investment attractiveness, because it shows sustainable, though not hefty income. And, as you know ‘Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent’. Especially in the Forex market."

Generalized Forex Forecast for 30 May – 3 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast, which may be considered as 100% fulfilled:
– as to the forecast for EUR/USD, the majority of experts and indicators insisted that it should go down at least to the level of 1.1100, which the pair did, wrapping up the week just 10 points higher – at the mark of 1.1110;
– as to the medium-term forecast for GBP/USD, technical and graphical analysis concurred and elaborated that the pair would continue moving in an ascending channel, which had started as early as this February. According to this forecast, supported by 65% of experts, the high of 1.1500 is the ultimate target of this pair. Therewith earlier this week, there were doubts as to the way the level of 1.4500 would play out whether as a local support or resistance. Eventually these doubts panned out, during Monday the pair had been fluctuating, at one moment moving above this line, at another – dropping below it, but then on Tuesday it steadily heaved, gaining 300 points and reaching the high of 1.4740 by Thursday;
– making forecast for USD/JPY, both experts and technical analysis expected the pair to move in a sideways channel alongside the pivot point of 109.00. This forecast may be considered as fulfilled – the pair finished the week at the same level it had started from. However its fluctuations appeared to be so marginal, that it failed to fall below the abovementioned level of 109.00, which eventually acted as the support for it;
– the forecast for USD/CHF also suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support within 0.9900 - 0.9920, which proved to be correct. Only on Friday evening, following the speech of the Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen and finding almost no resistance, the pair could stall just above the said zone and ended the week at the level of 0.9945.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– as to the future of EUR/USD, 80% of experts and 95% of indicators insist that the pair hasn’t reached the local low in the area of 1.1000 yet. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 points out that before going south, the price may tick up: the first resistance will be at 1.1170, the next one - at 1.1240. When the pair hits its bottom at the level of 1.1000, a mighty upwards bounce may follow, as a result of which it will rise above the mark of 1.1300;
– as to the medium-term acting of GBP/USD, 70% of analysts and indicators on D1 concur and elaborate that the uptrend will continue. The nearest resistance level will be at 1.4800. With this, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, early in the week the pair may go down to the support of 1.4500 and only then it may start moving upwards;
– as to the future of USD/JPY, bullish sentiment predominates among the indicators. Experts’ opinions are split almost equally: 35% vote for the pair’s rise, 35% - for its fall. The remaining 30% predict continuation of its sideways trend, which, according to the readings of the graphical analysis, is the most probable scenario. The first support will be at 109.40, the next support will be at 108.50, the main resistance will be in the area of 111.00;
– as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a clear difference of experts’ opinions and the graphical analysis. The former ones (85%), fully backed by indicators, reckon that the pair will make attempts to reach the benchmark level of 1.0000. As to the graphical analysis, it predicts that the pair will rebound downwards and return to the zone of 0.9700, followed by a short-term upward movement to the resistance of 0.9800 and a deeper decline to the support of 0.9500. The graphical analysis allocates between 3 and 4 weeks for implementation of this scenario.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6 – 10 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that the pair might first rise to the level of 1.1170, and then – even up to 1.1240, following which it would reverse and start going south. This scenario also considered the fact that according to many authoritative sources the key indicator of economic situation in the USA – Nonfarm payrolls (Nonfarm employment change) – would show its gradual growth. Until Friday the pair had been moving strictly in accordance with this forecast – on Tuesday it reached the first resistance of 1.1173, rebounded, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the area of the second resistance at 1.1220, following which it reversed and fiercely went south. However, Friday release of data from the USA changed the situation dramatically – actual NFP reading turned out to be 4 times (!) less than it was expected, and thus US dollar plunged by nearly 250 points;
– as to GBP/USD, over the last several weeks the level of 1.4500 was viewed as a medium-term pivot point for this pair. That’s why according to the readings of the graphical analysis the support zone was supposed to coincide with this line. But jitters and heightened volatility ahead of Brexit allowed the pair to drop below it by 115 points. However, afterwards it returned to the above-mentioned pivot point and wrapped up the week at the level of 1.4514;
– a sideways trend with the main resistance at 111.00 and support at 108.50 was deemed to be the most probable scenario for USD/JPY. Similar to EUR/USD, the pair first had been moving virtually within the predetermined range, however, the unexpected NFP data dropped the pair to the month-old values just in several hours;
– the forecast, provided by the graphical analysis for USD/CHF, suggested that it would return to the zone of 0.9700 and it turned out to be absolutely correct, the pair finished the week at the level of 0.9754 – which is 200 points lower than the level it had started from.

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– as to the future of EUR/USD, 100% of indicators point upwards. However, the vast majority of experts (around 80%) continue to insist that the pair will go down at least to the level of 1.1100. As to the forecast for summer, in their opinion during this period the pair may move further down – to the mark of 1.1000. The graphical analysis gives more cautious forecasts. According to its readings on Н4 and D1, the pair may first go down towards the support of 1.1283 (the next support will be at 1.1200), and then it will surge upwards to the high of 1.1450. Following which it will after all go south getting closer to the local bottom at the level of 1.1130;
– as to the acting of GBP/USD, analysts’ opinions are split almost equally – 45% vote for its fall, 45% - for its rise, and 10% - for the sideways trend. 75% of indicators on D1 along with the graphical analysis also vote for the sideways movement of the pair, which seems to be the most probable for the upcoming week. As before the pivot point is at the level of 1.4500, the support is at the areas of 1.4455, 1.4400, 1.4330, the resistance is at 1.4535, 1.4600 and 1.4740;
– analysts’ views on the future of USD/JPY differ, some predict its rise (50%) and others expect a sideways trend (the other 50%), none of them predicts its fall this week. Of course the pair may reach its May low of 105.50, however, it will be a short-term movement, and its main trend is south-oriented – towards the pivot point of 110.00;
– as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a difference of experts’ opinions and the technical analysis once again. 90% of indicators point down, but 60% of analysts predict surge of the pair to the level of 0.9850. The graphical analysis also doesn’t rule out a similar short-term uptick, however, the analysis on Н4 as well as on D1 continues to insist that a deep decline to the support of 0.9500 may follow. As to the medium-term forecast, it also remains the same, in spite of its fluctuations the pair should reach the benchmark level of 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Обобщенный Форекс-прогноз на 13 – 17 июня 2016г.

Для начала несколько слов о прогнозе на предыдущую неделю:
– давая прогноз для пары EUR/USD на ближайший месяц, большинство экспертов (около 80%) настаивали на снижении пары как минимум до уровня 1.1100. В результате, после выступления главы ЕЦБ Марио Драги, пара действительно начала движение на юг и окончила неделю посредине между уровнями поддержки 1.1283 и 1.1200, обозначенными на основе данных графического анализа;
– в ожидании Брекзита волатильность пары GBP/USD продолжает нарастать с каждым днем. Напомним, что на прошлой неделе мнения аналитиков разделились практически пополам – 45% выступали за рост пары, 45% – за ее падение и 10% – за боковой тренд и колебания вокруг Pivot Point 1.4500. В результате пара сначала поднялась до указанной линии, затем достигла отметки 1.4660, пройдя в сумме за полтора дня 300 пунктов вверх, после чего развернулась, вернулась к Pivot Point, а затем рухнула, пробив все ожидаемые уровни поддержки и опустившись в итоге на 500 пунктов;
– а вот что касается прогноза для USD/JPY, то его можно считать полностью сбывшимся. Все 100% экспертов дружно исключили падение этой пары, при этом половина из них проголосовала за ее рост, половина – за горизонтальное движение. В результате, не сумев пробить поддержку в зоне 106.30, пара поднялась на 150 пунктов, а затем вернулась к отметкам начала недели, обозначив в качестве Pivot Point уровень 107.00;
– относительно поведения USD/CHF, в очередной раз оказался прав графический анализ, который на протяжении нескольких недель настойчиво предупреждал о возможном падении пары до поддержки 0.9500. В результате пара почти достигла заданной цели, опустившись до отметки 0.9577, после чего отбилась и завершила пятидневку в зоне 0.9640.

***
Прогноз на предстоящую неделю:
Обобщая мнения нескольких десятков аналитиков из ведущих мировых банков и брокерских компаний, а также прогнозы, сделанные на основе самых различных методов технического и графического анализа, можно сказать следующее:
– среднесрочный прогноз для EUR/USD остается прежним – снижение в течение месяца до уровня 1.1000. С этим согласны 70% экспертов. Что же касается ее поведения в ближайшую неделю, то эксперты, вкупе с графическим анализом на Н4 и индикаторами на D1, говорят о боковом движении с преобладанием медвежьих тенденций и поддержкой в зоне 1.1210. Альтернативную точку зрения рисует графический анализ на D1. И хотя он также предсказывает горизонтальный тренд, но, по его мнению, пара сначала должна подняться до высоты 1.4440, и лишь затем опуститься к поддержке 1.1210, а затем и ниже – до уровня 1.1135;
– что касается GBP/USD, то графический анализ будто бы знает о приближающимся референдуме о выходе Великобритании из ЕС. По крайней мере, давать какие-либо прогнозы и на Н1, и на Н4, и на D1 он отказывается. А вот мнения индикаторов и экспертов радикально расходятся: если 100% первых направлены вниз, то 90% вторых говорят о стремлении пары вернуться к Pivot Point 1.4500. В качестве же задачи-минимум указывается подъем до сопротивления 1.4400;
– мнения аналитиков относительно будущего USD/JPY, на удивление, совпали и с показаниями индикаторов, и с графическим анализом. Согласно их солидарному решению, пара продолжит движение вдоль Pivot Point 107.00. Первая поддержка на уровне 106.50, вторая – 105.50, сопротивление в зонах 107.50, 107.90 и 108.70;
– что же касается последней пары нашего обзора – USD/CHF – то для нее в качестве локального дна эксперты называют уровень 0.9550, а графический анализ – 0.9600. При этом указывается на стремление быков вернуть пару в зону 0.9700 – 0.9750. Что же касается месячного прогноза, то здесь мнения расходятся: аналитики продолжают настаивать на стремлении пары к уровню 1.0000, а вот графический анализ считает, что, отбившись от сопротивления 0.9750, пара вновь устремится вниз – к минимумам начала мая в зоне 0.9445.

Роман Бутко, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 20 – 24 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– making a forecast for EUR/USD, both experts and technical analysis unanimously voted for a sideways trend with a bearish sentiment, which was 100% fulfilled – discrepancy between the levels of the beginning and the end of the week made just around 20 points, therewith the pair tended to go south. The graphical analysis on Н4 pointed to the support of 1.1210, and, having reached this level on Tuesday, the pair bounced off it and moved upwards on Wednesday. The pair succeeded to break through the above-mentioned support only on Thursday and, as predicted by the graphical analysis on D1, the pair quickly reached the bottom at the area of 1.1135, following which it returned to the values of the early week;

– we couldn’t find any compromise for GBP/USD between the experts and the technical analysis ahead of Brexit. Eventually during the week, the pair drew a chart very similar to the chart of EUR/USD. The only forecast, made and completely panned out, was an increased volatility of the pair, as a result of which a weekly range of its fluctuations exceeded 350 points;

– as to the forecast for USD/JPY, surprisingly opinions of the analysts coincided with both readings of the indicators and the graphical analysis. According to their consensus the pair should continue moving alongside the pivot point of 107.00. However, on Thursday due to release of the Bank of Japan interest rate decisions the pair easily broke through the support at 105.50 and it sharply plunged, reaching the two-year-old levels;

– as to the acting of USD/CHF, both the experts and the graphical analysis agreed that the pair reached the local bottom at the area of 0.9550 – 0.9600. The pair really failed to fall below these marks and it wrapped up the week at the level of 0. 9590. As to the striving of the pair to return to the area of 0.9700 – 0.9750, the pair made four such attempts during the week, however it failed to rise above the mark of 0.9686.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– making forecast for EUR/USD, 60% of experts, backed by 80% of indicators on Н4, reckon that the pair would go up to the zone of 1.1340 – 1.1400. As to the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 and indicators on a daily interval, they believe that within the next few days the pair won’t rise above 1.1300 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.1200 – 1.1300. The next support will be at 1.1150;

– as to GBP/USD, it’s virtually impossible to give a holistic forecast ahead of Brexit. As a reminder, a plebiscite among the residents of the Foggy Albion, will be held on Thursday, June 23, and its results will be made public the next day – on Friday, June 24. According to some analysts, if British people vote to leave EU, their national currency may plunge by over 4000 points, down to 1.1000. It is fair to say, that the majority of experts (around 65%) remains optimistic and bullish, though no one indicates any specific growth points. As to the forecast from Monday to Wednesday, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, the pair has a lot of chances to drop to the area of 1.4100;

– the analysts and the graphical analysis agree that the level of 103.40 is the local bottom for USD/JPY. According to their opinion, for some time the pair will be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it will get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast remains the same. The experts and the graphical analysis identify the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for this pair, the resistance will be at 0.9700, the overall sentiment – bearish. But once again, we’d like to remind, that results of Brexit can sufficiently influence not only GBP/USD, but also all other major currency pairs.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Dear traders!
Broker Company NordFX is pleased to offer the latest binary platform Nord Machine (http://nordmachine.com/).
This platform is one of the most modern and convenient for trading second binary options (from 60 to 300 seconds). It’s easy to learn how to use and trade with Nord Machine.
A wide range of assets – from stocks of international companies, gold, oil, silver to Bitcoin cryptocurrency – is available to each client. The profit may reach up to 80%, and the minimum amount of investments makes just $5.
Take your chance to get large profit, invest simple and easy with Nord Machine.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 27 June – 1 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– all last week’s forecasts were made with the proviso that they would remain in force only before the beginning of the UK referendum. And given that very proviso, the prediction for EUR/USD may be considered as panned out. The majority of both experts and indicators reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 1.1340 – 1.1400. The level of 1.1200 was referred to as the main support. Eventually, notwithstanding various expectations as to the outcome of the British plebiscite, the pair could keep within the range of 1.1235 – 1.1420. As to Friday, June 24, that day the pair plunged by 500 points, then it retraced a half of the movement – up to the level of 1.1190 and ended the week at the levels of late May – at the area of 1.1100;


– last week it was virtually impossible to give any holistic forecast for GBP/USD. However, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, if the citizens of the United Kingdom vote to leave the EU, the pair could go down to the mark of 1.1000. However, that didn’t happen, the downswing was impressive – 1790 points just in a few hours. As to the final outcome of the week, the pair stalled at the mark of 1.3675 - the low last seen in early 2009;



– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that pair would be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and afterwards it would get over a level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50. That’s exactly what happened – during the first half of the week the pair held onto the range of 103.55 – 105.00, on Thursday it went up to the marks of 105.00 – 106.80, and on Friday, having reacted to the outcome of Brexit, it paused at the level of 102.10 (the pivot point of the first half of 2014);

– as to USD/CHF pair, its reaction to the outcome of the referendum appeared to be rather mild – it was up less than 150 points from the last week’s marks, and it kept within the range predicted by the experts.


***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– making forecast for EUR/USD, 80% of experts, backed by the vast majority of indicators on Н4 and D1, insist that the pair will once again test the last week’s low, trying to go down to the area of 1.0800 – 1.0900. As to the remaining 20% of analysts, they believe that the pair will follow suit of USD/CHF, which after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, gradually returned to initial values. Hence they expect EUR/USD to rise to the marks at the area of 1.1350;


– as to GBP/USD, it’s very difficult to predict its future and in the short term it is likely to react emotionally to any statements of newsmakers in respect of the future of Great Britain and Europe. That is why opinions of the analysts are split almost equally: 40% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall and 30% - for a sideways trend. As to the technical analysis, 90% of indicators on Н4 and 100% on D1 point down. However, we’d recommend not to be guided by their readings in the current situation;



– as to the future of USD/JPY, 60% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the landmark level of 100.00, and may be even further – to the bottom at the zone of 097.00 – 098.00. The remaining 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 express an alternative point of view, they predict that the pair will move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 70% of experts expect the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. 85% of indicators on Н4 and 60% on D1 agree to this point of view. With this, the graphical analysis doesn’t rule out that before going north, the pair may drop to the support at 0.9650 – 0.9670. The medium-term forecast for this pair is the same – rise above the level of 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Generalized Forex Forecast for 04 – 08 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:
– as to EUR/USD, those 20% of analysts, suggesting the gradual rise of the pair, alike the rise of USD/CHF after the ‘Black Thursday’ as of 01/15/2015, turned out to be right. At least, over the past week the pair regained nearly 150 points and wrapped up the week within the area of lows seen in late May – early June;
– the forecasts as to the future of GBP/USD were also vague, as well as the forecasts in respect of future relationships of Great Britain and EU: last week opinions of the analysts were split almost equally: 30% voted for the pair’s fall, 40% - for the its rise and 30% - for a sideways trend. That’s exactly what happened: first the pair slightly fell, then it went up a little bit, then it moved downwards again and eventually it appeared at the low of June 24 - 1.3270, having fulfilled expectations of all experts, including those supporting a sideways trend;
– making forecast for USD/JPY, 40% of experts and the graphical analysis on Н4 predicted that the pair would move within the range of 101.00 – 104.00, which did happen, only range-adjusted – it turned out to be even narrower than predicted - 101.40–103.40;
– as to USD/CHF pair, 70% of experts, backed by the majority of indicators, expected the pair to return to the pivot point of 2015/16 at the level of 0.9800. The pair did rallied fairly quickly to the predetermined level, where it had been stalling during the midweek, following which it went down to the same values it had started the week from – to the area of 0.9730.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
– the effects of Brexit are likely to influence the condition of markets for a very long time. And uncertainty in respect of the way the Foggy Albion will be separated from the EU (and whether it will ever be separated) causes uncertainty in forecasts of analysts. As to the acting of EUR/USD for the upcoming week, 45% of analysts insist on the pair’s rise, 45% - on its fall, and the remaining 10% reached a compromise voting for a sideways trend. Readings of the indicators show the same variety of opinions, but the graphical analysis on Н4 draws a well-defined sideways channel within1.1035–1.1180. With this, you should consider that NFP data – the key figure of economic health of the USA - will be released on Friday, July 08, which usually cause spikes in exchange rate of US dollar. Unlike the fuzzy week forecast, the medium-terms forecasts provide a much clearer picture: over 80% of analysts reckon that in somewhere about two months the pair will go down first to the level of 1.0800, and then further – to the area of 1.0500–1.0600;
– as to GBP/USD, here we can see a unique situation – 100% of experts, fully backed by the technical analysis, predict a sideways trend, which is of course due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. The level of 1.3300 is referred to as the pivot point, 1.3070 – as the lower boundary of the channel, 1.3550 – as the upper boundary. As to the forecast until the end of the month, here more than 55% of experts tend to believe that the pair will fall below the level of 1.3000;
– as to the future of USD/JPY, almost 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall at least to the zone of 100.00–101.00. With this the area of 103.50 is indicated as the main resistance level. An alternative point of view, supported by the remaining experts and the graphical analysis on D1, suggests a possible rise of the pair to the level of 106.30. Therewith, you should consider that currently USD/JPY is at the pivot point level of the first half of 2014, and it may move alongside this line for some time;
– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, it’s highly likely that the pair will continue fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9800, and with this it will pursue bullish attempts to return to the landmark level of 1.0000.
Roman Butko, NordFX

June 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

We continue posting ratings of MQL5 trading signals, which you can easily subscribe to using the tab ‘Signals’ at the bottom of terminals МТ4 and МТ5. As a reminder, this service is a very effective substitute of your own trading - manually or with the help of the advisors. The main difficulty here is choosing those strategies worth to be subscribed to. Currently around five thousand strategies are presented on ‘the display window’, and selecting the ones, resulting in a sustainable profit, rather than in a one-time deposit loss, is quite challenging.

As usual, John Gordon – expert in investment security and leading analyst at broker company NordFX, analyzing mistakes, often made by investors, subscribing to any given signal, is acting as our consultant in respect of this service.

Following the results of June preferences of the subscribers/investors are as follows:
I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 75%, 430 subscribers),
II. Arrow (growth 1461%, 204 subscribers),
III. Stable Forex Profit (growth 10562%, 199 subscribers),
IV. Small to BIG Money (growth 341%, 179 subscribers),
V. Q2FX (growth 1748%, 119 subscribers),
VI. Lemar Investment Group (growth 742%, 106 subscribers),
VII. Setka Real2 (growth 1013%, 104 subscribers),
VIII. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 26%, 75 subscribers),
IX. A1 Daily Profit (growth 1152%, 64 subscribers),
X. Y2016 (growth 1491%, 63 subscribers).

“For starters”, offers John Gordon, “let’s give some general statistics. So, as compared to the previous month, Top 10 is renewed by 60%. The previous providers left in the top list are:
– MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 –still ranks No. I;
¬– Lemar Investment Group – the signal moved ahead one step – from VII to VI place;
– Small to BIG Money – conversely, dropped one place and currently holds IV position;
– and signal Q2FX, which switched from VIII place to V.

As to the other signals, which were among previous May TOP-10, the situation is as follows:
– Fusion Project moved down from the sixth to the thirty-third place in the rating of popularity among the subscribers;
¬– CB06143 changed its name to TRIPLEX 003 TYPE AA, and giving up its positions, currently holds the twenty-fourth place instead of the tenth;
– Green Line Signals, was not even in TOP-10, but in TOP-3 during several months, currently it didn’t just drop out of the leaders’ team, but lost almost all its subscribers, showing a drawdown of 97% from the deposit;
– Pound Aussie Real appeared on the 36th place versus the previous 2nd;
– Asia Balance – ranks No.37 (previously – No.9);
– signal MAXI showed the greatest drop in the rating, it moved down from the 6th place to the 57th.”

“It should be noted that our forecasts as to the reliability of a given signal”, continues analyst of NordFX, “mostly pan out. And those signals, positively recommended by us, usually can easily stand and tick along even the sharpest fluctuations of cross rates, even the ones seen during Brexit. However, unfortunately, quite often investors choose absolutely other signals, being guided only by the profit figures and paying no attention to our calls for being cautious, which leads to quite poor results. For an example, I'd like to cite what we told about Green Line Signals three months ago, in March:

“Consider”, I wrote previously, “the signal is just 12 weeks old, its maximum drawdown is 53%, and such close calls happened twice over three months. On the signal provider’s website, the figure is an even more alarming 63%. Time will tell whether I’m right or wrong urging to be extremely cautious with this signal.”
“Time proved I was right, and instead of previous growth of 700% June figures showed loss of 65% with the maximum drawdown of 96%!”

"Generally, while selecting signals for subscription,” John Gordon says, "I urge to analyze other signals of the same author as well. We may take signal Pound Aussie, being among TOP-10 in May, as an example. Apart from this signal, its author offers to subscribe to two more signals: Mix Demo and London Hawk. Needless to say, that the first signal, operating on a demo account, shows a very impressive deposit growth – 1200% in little over a year. But a drawdown is also impressive – 81%, which is a cause for serious concerns. And if the account, which you use for a subscription, also includes a bonus from your broker, with such a drawdown it almost 100% likely to be zeroed.

The second signal – London Hawk – is operating on the real account, it is only 7 weeks old, it shows growth of 24%, but herewith the maximum drawdown has already tested the mark above 53%. The obvious conclusions spring to mind. And more than 80% of investors have already come to such conclusions, having cancelled the subscription to Pound Aussie Real.

Or, for example, another signal which just amazes with its profitability – Panen Profit, plus 9113% in just under a year! And the maximum drawdown for such a growth is quite acceptable – 50% from the deposit. It's an excellent result but for several ‘buts’.
The first one is what I call "reverse martingale" – trade tactics where first the author of a signal gains ‘pace’ of the deposit with a high risk, and then sharply slows down. With such a scheme, only those investors signed to the signal at the very beginning of its lifespan get the main profit. And here example of Panen Profit is very illustrative: September of 2015 – plus 290%, October – plus 238%, November – 8%, and further from 9 to 27% per month.
As a whole and with such figures the subscription can turn out to be quite profitable, but there is the second ‘but’, which is that the drawdown of 50% appeared not when the growth was approaching to 300%, but during the months with a rather gradual increase of the deposit of 20–25%.

Of course, a degree of admissible risk is determined by the investor himself and nobody else. I'm just trying to help with accurate assessment of a balance between this risk and profitability.
Let's assume that you had been signed to Panen Profit since 6/1/2016. For this month the deposit growth made around 25%, and the drawdown – 50%. Subscription cost – 30 USD/per month. So that you could leave in a month with zero result, your initial deposit should make 120 USD. The risk of loss makes 50% from 120 USD, that is 60 dollars, plus 30 dollars paid for the subscription, total 90 USD. But if your deposit makes, let's say, 1200 USD instead of 120, it will be a different and more attractive scenario," - John Gordon from NordFX sums up. "Specifics and a great advantage of the service 'Signals' is in the fixed cost of subscription, regardless of the size of the investor's deposit. Thus, with deposit growing higher, not only absolute, monetary profit is increasing, but also relative profit, expressed as percentage from the initial capital, the risk is, correspondingly, decreasing, which is good news for any investor".

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11 – 15 July 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, based on the readings of the graphical analysis a sideways trend within the range of 1.1035–1.1180 was indicated as the main scenario. Indeed, the pair was keeping within 1.1028–1.1185 during the entire week, and even Friday release of NFP data couldn’t drive it out of this channel for long. Eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1050;

– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts tended to believe that during the month the pair should plunge below the level of 1.3000. In contrast, the week review reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways trend with the pivot point of 1.3300. However the pair couldn’t rise above this level and already during the first half of week hit the monthly target, having moved down to 1.2795, whereafter it changed over to a sideways trend within the range of 1.2870–1.3050;

– predicting the acting of USD/JPY, nearly 70% of analysts, backed by 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, voted for the pair’s fall to the area of 100.00–101.00, which did happen with 100% accuracy: the area of 100.20 acted as the main support for the pair, 99.98 – as the low of the week;

– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair reckoned that the pair was highly likely to fluctuate around the pivot point of 0.9800 and tend to return to the landmark level of 1.0000. Eventually, the pair soared on the news from the USA, got to the level of 0.9865, and then rebounded, ending the week at the level of 0.9830.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– this time it was easy to sum up opinions of experts and reading of the technical analysis about the future of EUR/USD. 90% of analysts, 100% of indicators and the graphical analysis concur and elaborate that the pair will fall to the low of June 24, the day when the results of Brexit referendum had been announced. Afterwards the pair should transit to a side movement within the range of 1.0900–1.0970. An alternative scenario also provides for a movement in a sideways channel, however a bit more northwards – within the range of 1.0970–1.1050;

– as to the future of GBP/USD, it’s clear that opinions of indicators (70%) are south-oriented. 25% of experts also look southwards. However, according to the majority of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis, after bouncing off the bottom in the area of 1.2860, the pair should upswing, where, having reached the resistance of 1.3370, for some time it should keep within the channel of 1.3100–1.3370, and then it will get back to the support of 1.2860;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast is practically unchanged - fluctuations around the pivot point of 0.9850 with prevalence of bullish trends. The nearest resistance level will be at 0.9945, target will be at 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18 – 22 July 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the forecast for this pair may be considered only partly fulfilled – the experts reckoned that the pair would move in a sideways channel, but only after its sliding down, as a result of which the level of 1.1050 should act as the resistance zone. However, as the last week showed, it continued to act as the upper boundary of the support area of 1.1025–1.1050, and all attempts to break through it failed. Eventually the pair has been moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160 for almost three weeks, which is, obviously, due to the uncertainty around effects of Brexit on Europe;

– making forecast about the future of GBP/USD, the majority of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, tended to believe that the pair would soar, having rebound from the bottom in the area of 1.2860, where it would reach the resistance of 1.3370 and briefly pause within the range of 1.3100–1.3370. That is just what happened. Then on Thursday under the onslaught of bulls, the pair could go further upwards and reached the level of 1.3480, but by Friday night their pressure weakened and the pair returned into the predetermined range, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3180;

– and acting of USD/JPY must have come as a big surprise to analysts. The pair was expected to follow the scenario of spring/summer 2014 and move within the ranges, predetermined by the support levels of 100.20 and 99.00 and resistance levels of 102.30 and 103.50. However, having bounced off the support of 100.20, the pair made such a mighty heave, that it literally flew over nearly 600 points, got to the level of 106.320 and at once regained everything it had lost during announcement of Brexit results;

– USD/CHF – the forecast for this pair can be considered 100% fulfilled. As it was expected, the pair had been fluctuating around the pivot point of 0.9850. In attempts to return to the zone of 1.0000, it could reach the high of 0.9893, and afterwards it again returned to the pivot point and ended the week at the level of 0.9820.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, it’s clear that in this case all indicators point to south. However the majority of experts reckon that the pair will continue moving within the range of 1.1025–1.1160. ECB rate decision and speech of Mario Draghi on Thursday can make some adjustments, and thus a certain rise of the pair is possible. As to the graphical analysis, it points out that the pair, following the example of USD/JPY, may well surge upwards, paring losses it had incurred during the referendum in the Foggy Albion. In this case 1.1220, 1.1290 and 1.1410 are deemed as the resistance levels. An alternative scenario, backed by only 25% of analysts for now, suggests that the pair would go down to the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900;

– as to the future of GBP/USD, according to both opinions of analysts and technical analysis, the bearish trend still gets a firm hold of the market. However, in terms of retracement, during the upcoming week the pair has potential to rise to the resistance of 1.3470 (and according to the graphical analysis on H4 even higher – up to 1.3800), following which it will again plunge – first to the support of 1.3100, and then to its historic lows in the area of 1.2800;

– opinions of the analysts about the future of USD/JPY may be narrowed down to the point, that last week’s rebound upwards is only a retracement, and that bulls’ strength is almost gone. Eventually, the pair is expected to change over to the sideways movement within 104.50–106.50 (the next resistance will be at 107.80) during the next week. Graphical analysis and indicators agree to this scenario, which both the ones on Н4 and on D1 took a neutral position. Medium-term forecast suggests that the descending trend, started as early as last December, should continue and the pair would retest the level of 99.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, according to virtually all analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4 and 80% of indicators, the pair will remain bullish and continue moving in an ascending trend. The nearest target will be at 0.9950, then at 1.0000. The main support will be at 0.9800, and if will be broken through – 0.9680.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

British Pound – Nosedive After Brexit

After Brexit every second Brit predicts the end to the United Kingdom within the next 10 years. These are the shocking data of survey conducted by BBC. It is clear, that such turmoil cannot but effect the future of the British pound as well – one of the major currencies being traded on the Forex market now.

GBP/USD pair steadily holds the third place in world hierarchy of currencies in respect of the liquidity level. The volume of transactions thereon before the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum made about 12% of all transactions on Forex, and one of the key factors determining popularity of this pair among traders is its high volatility.
Statistics for the recent years demonstrated extremely high sensitivity of GBP to fundamental factors including not only data on the state of British economy and decisions of the Bank of England, but also similar data from Europe and the USA. Significant rate fluctuations of the British pound constantly led to statements of European officials and their colleagues overseas.
And it all occurred prior to Brexit! What will happen to the ‘British’ in the conditions of a real force majeure?

“It is logical to assume,” the leading analyst of NordFX broker company, John Gordon says, “that until the authorities of Great Britain officially announce the beginning of procedure of exit from the EU and launch a specific implementation of this decision, the pound will try to circle the wagons and even make an effort to somewhat improve its positions. But as soon as the distance between Europe and the United Kingdom will really begin to increase, the pound will see truly 'rainy days'. Problems with the budget and serious current account deficit are evident. Under such circumstances it will be very difficult to slow down outflow of investment capital and at least to neutralize bull sentiment in the foreign exchange market.”

On the flip side, the specialist and Chief European Economist of the Bank of England, Johnathan Loynes, reckons that fall of exchange rate of the pound, conversely, can serve well to national economy. “The pound dropped more than by 11% against the currency basket”, J. Loynes stated, “and it is perceived as something negative. However the exchange rate of the pound prior to Brexit had been too high and hadn’t contributed to reduction of trade deficit of the country, making British export non-competitively expensive”. “Decline in the exchange rate of the pound can kick serious start to export of Great Britain again”, he comforted the British industrialists in his recent report.

These comments closely echo the opinion of the winner of the Wolfson prize, economist Roger Bootle, who – even before the referendum! – stated that if British citizens voted for exit from the EU and the pound sharply depreciated, in the long term it would have a positive effect – would help to balance trade and bridge the trade balance deficit by means of increase in export of Great Britain and reduction of the domestic demand for import.

As for the analysts of Credit Suisse Fixed Research, they, perhaps, do not share the optimism of their colleagues from the Bank of England and they announced a major revision of the forecasts for the major currency pairs.
The prevailing revision is that the forecast for GBP/USD decreased from 1.58 to 1.22. As for the three-months forecast for EUR/USD, according to Shahab Jalinoos from Credit Suisse, it is cut to 1.05. “Now, when the negative scenario became a reality,” the analyst says, “we believe that the market will continuously strive to sell this pair.”

The specialists of the Dutch financial conglomerate ING predict a bit deeper decline for GBP/USD. According to their forecasts, the pair can soon go down to 1.10-1.20. With this, in a longer term the analytics of ING paint a bleaker picture connected with a possible holding of the second Scottish independence referendum and loss of the status of the reserve currency by the pound. “It is clear that lack of clarity (in respect of the future of Great Britain), Head of FX Strategy at ING in London, Chris Turner, says, – will push GBP towards extreme devaluation.

As for investment bank JPMorgan, summarizing the results of Brexit, it also updated the forecasts, considering that as early as in the third quarter of 2016 GBP/USD will fall below the level of 1.29, and EUR/GBP will reach the mark of 0.8760.

“Even before Brexit”, – says John Gordon from NordFX, “analysts indicated the level of 1.30 against the US dollar as the critical level.
Therewith it is believed that if the pair is consolidated below it, then the pound might be expected to go down further to 1.15, and then even further down – down to parity with American currency. The pair had already tested the level of 1.28, the future, however, largely depends on those steps which will be taken by the authorities of Great Britain.”

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue moving in a sideways channel. This prediction may be deemed as panned out, if we consider the month range of 1.0970–1.1180, at which the pair appeared to stall after Brexit. With this, it should be mentioned that only 25% of analysts predicted that the pair would go down and strive to retest the low of June 24 at the level of 1.0900, and there are only around 50-60 points left before it reaches this level;

– GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and during the entire week the pair had been fluctuating within 1.3070–1.3290 with the pivot point of 1.3200, which complies with the low of June 24 and which is due to absence of any significant news in respect of Brexit;

– the forecast about acting of USD/JPY was 100% fulfilled. The analysts reckoned that the upward rebound, seen two weeks ago, was only a retracement. In their opinion the pair should change over to the sideways movement with the resistance at 106.50, which it virtually did. The area of 107.80 was indicated as the next resistance, which the pair tried to reach on Thursday, but as the experts expected, the powers of bulls weakened, and the pair returned to the level of 106.00;

– USD/CHF – as it was expected, the pair kept bullish bias, however, so far it failed to get to the level of 1.0000. Having bounced off the support of 0.9800, the pair soared to the high of 0.9800, but afterwards it rebounded downwards again and wrapped up the week at the level of 0.9860.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, 70% of experts, backed by 100% of indicators, tend to believe that during the upcoming week or two the pair will make attempts to reach the level of 1.0900. The remaining 30% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H1 represent an alternative viewpoint, they reckon that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements on Wednesday may change this trend;

– Brexit picture is so mixed, that the graphical analysis for GBP/USD on all main time frames doesn’t allow making any forecasts. As to the majority of experts (75%), in their view bearish sentiment continues at the market, and the pair, having finished the retracement, will strive to the support within 1.2850–1.2900, and 95% of indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario;

- opinions of the analysts and indicators as well as the graphical analysis about the future of USD/JPY can be narrowed down to the thing, that the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel, and afterwards, having bounced off the resistance in the area of 107.40–107.60, will go south and, having broken through the support of 105.50, will go down by further 200 points – to the support of 103.50. But here, Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, released in the early Friday morning, can make certain adjustments;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, everything remains unchanged: the bullish bias of the pair attempting to reach the level of 1.0000, the pivot point at 0.9880, the first support will be at 0.9840, the second – at 0.9840, and if it will be broken through – fall to the level of 0.9700.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

OLYMPIC DEMOCUP

Competition Dedicated to the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro
Participate virtually, Earn really!
OLYMPIC DEMOCUP is a unique competition on demo accounts with real prizes, with 3 sets of awards in team and individual scorings.

The total prize fund is $ 23100!

Hurry up to take part, the registration ends soon!
Learn more at the website http://olympic.nordfx.com/ 

Generalized Forex Forecast for 08 – 12 August 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south. So earlier in the week the pair surged upwards, reaching the mark of 1.1235 on Tuesday, and afterwards it reversed and showed an equal plunge. Acting of the pair on Friday was somewhat surprising, when the USA data were announced. As a reminder, the forecast reckoned that NFP could drop from 287k to 175k. Actual value (255k) indeed came out lower than the previous one, but not enough to meet expectations of the market. Eventually instead of weakening, the greenback strengthened its positions, rebounding by over 100 points versus euro. However then the pair returned to the pivot point of the last six weeks – to the area of 1.1090;

– GBP/USD. Uncertain situation with Brexit seems to balance the powers of bulls and bears for long. That’s why 75% of experts, backed by the technical analysis, believed that the pair would continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.3050–1.3335. This is exactly what happened – neither ECB meeting, held on Wednesday, nor news from the Bank of England, released on Thursday, nor NFP data, released on Friday, could drive it out of this channel. Eventually the pair ended the week virtually at the lower boundary of the predetermined range – at 1.3060;

– giving forecast for USD/JPY, experts failed to form any consensus - 30% of analysts reckoned that the pair would try to go down to the level of 100.00, 40% of experts believed that it won’t be able to break through the support of 101.50, and, finally, the rest 30% voted for its sideways movement. In fact, on the second try the pair could break through the level of 101.50, and having turned it into the resistance, it changed over to a sideways trend, where it had consolidated till the release of NFP, whereby it returned to the area it had started the week from - 102.00;

– USD/CHF – as it was expected, earlier in the week the pair was moving in a sideways channel within 0.9660–0.9720, and afterwards it went down. However, it failed to get to the support of 0.9500, when rebounded from the last week’s low it reversed and, being supported by the news from Europe and the USA, it moved upwards, wrapping up the week around the key level of the last two years - 0.9800.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to EUR/USD, most experts concur that the down trend, started on August 2, will continue, and the next target for the pair will be the support within 1.0950–1.1000. 85% of indicators on H4 and D1 as well as the graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agree to this scenario. With this, the graphical analysis specifies that early in the week the pair may tick up to the upper boundary of the down trend – up to 1.1130, having bounced off which it will go down to the support of 1.1035, and then even further down to 1.0950. If the resistance of 1.1130 is broken through, the pair can rise up to the next resistance of 1.1170, which is at the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel, which had begun on May 3. The third resistance will be at 1.1220;

– 70% of experts expect GBP/USD to rebound upwards from the lower boundary of the horizontal channel of 1.3050–1.3335, and according to them it will keep within this range for a few days. The remaining 30% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the increased volatility of the pair will allow it to expand this range up to the levels of 1.2800 and 1.3500. In this case the upwards rebound should be expected already from this channel of 1.2800. Early next week we’ll see which of this scenarios will play out, however, it should be mentioned that all 100% of experts predict that during August the price will retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure;

– as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts share the same opinion that the down trend of the entire 2016 has not finished yet, and the pair should be expected to go down first to the support of 100.00, and then further down to 98.90. With this, according to the graphical analysis on Н4, it is possible that before plunging the pair will first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel (clearly seen on D1), which is at the area of 103.50–104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the half of experts believes that the pair will try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 agree with this. The rest 50% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 reckon that the level of 0.9800 will become rather a pivot point, alongside which the pair will be moving within 0.9735–0.9900, than a support.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

July 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

The vast majority of the traders using MT4 terminals are certainly familiar with an opportunity of automatic trading by means of the 'Signals' service integrated into this platform. The main difficulty while subscribing is a selection of the most appropriate signals in terms of combination of risk and profitability.
Unfortunately, the analysis shows that many traders/investors pay attention only to the last of all parameters, neglecting possible risks, and it results in negative impact on their deposits.
In order to help traders avoid these mistakes, monthly, for more than two years, the leading specialist of NordFX broker company, John Gordon, analyzes the choice of subscribers, making recommendations on how to get the maximum profit in case at minimal risks.

As of the end of July TOP-10 most popular signals among subscribers is as follows:
I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 86%, 784 subscribers),
II. Stable Forex Profit (growth 16293%, 257 subscribers),
III. Lemar Analytics ECN (growth 131%, 197 subscribers),
IV. Revolution (growth 3987%, 143 subscribers),
V. Arrow (growth 1853%, 112 subscribers),
VI. F Cracker (growth 201%, 102 subscribers),
VII. Lemar Investment Group (growth 942%, 101 subscribers),
VIII. Q2FX 1 (growth 2189%, 119 subscribers),
IX. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 29%, 125 subscribers),
X. Setka Real2 (growth 1043%, 69 subscribers).

"The July list of top signals”, begins the overview J. Gordon, "was updated, as compared to June Top, by only 30%, the key positions were taken by old players, on which I will focus today."

“MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 signal has been taking the Ist place for the third consecutive month. With this, I'd like to pay your attention, that it has been among Top 3 signals during the entire 2016: January – the second place, February, March, April – the third place, and during the last three months – it proved to be an absolute leader with 784 subscribers, which have entrusted management of around one million dollars to the author of this signal management. Even though, its profitability seems to be more, than modest. Where others show a growth of hundreds and thousands of percents, it showed a growth of only 27% in last seven months
So why is it so popular? I guess, there are three reasons:
- the first one – the life span of the signal, 123 weeks in the market without loss of a deposit is already a certain guarantee;
- the second reason is a very small drawdown. It didn't not exceed 19% during these two and a half years, and in 2016 the maximum drawdown didn't exceed 3%.
- and, finally, the third one - subscription to this signal is absolutely free, that is important for investors with small deposits.

The second place in the rating is taken by Stable Forex Profit signal, it considerably differs from the first one. Suffice to say, that over seven months of this year the deposit growth made 780%. The signal is 83 weeks old, and that is a significant life span. However, on July 8, when the USA unemployment data were released, his author let himself quite a risky trading, and therefore his depositing made 72%. The maximum drawdown on this signal makes 55%, which is rather dangerous for those investors who used large bonuses on the deposit from their brokers.”

“Let me speak aside", the leading analyst of NordFX continues. "Good thing about the 'Signals' service, developed by the MetaQuotes Software Corp., is that it provides investors the data of online monitoring on more than 50 parameters, which allows evaluating a given signal fully and properly. Furthermore, the users of this service can carry on a direct correspondence with developers of signals and rate them.
So, for example, you can read how the subscribers to the signal Stable Forex Profit express their displeasure to its author (which, by the way, promised to change ‘the way of trading to a more cautious, aiming to keep DD within 10-20%’) at the most critical moments of trade.
In my opinion, such an on-line chat with subscribers and their reaction are rather useful addition to the parameters of the technical analysis and give additional information for evaluation of signal quality. So, in respect of the number of signals, for instance, the subscribers complain about slippage, as a result of which their results, when copying, appear to be significantly lower, than the results of the author of the signal. It is very important information, worth paying attention to, especially in case of pips strategies.

And, finally, one more signal which ranks among the popularity TOP among subscribers for the fifth month in a row is Q2FX_1 – impressive profit of 2189% with an admissible maximum drawdown of 32%. A certain wariness here causes the fact that in June-July the drawdown chart showed a significant increase, which is, to my mind, connected with desire of the author of the signal to improve his indicators, which were doubled in comparison with April-May ones. And, as we know, the higher the profit, the higher the risks.”

"It'd be quite convenient,” John Gordon adds, "if developers of the 'Signals' service introduced one more chart into a monitoring complex – changes of the number of subscribers. In my opinion, it would really help insufficiently qualified investors understand whether it is worth being signed to a given signal or not.
For example, let us consider the above-mentioned MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842: January – 246 subscribers, February – 250, March – 225, April – 336, May – 447, June – 430, July – 784. In six months the number of subscribers tripled, suggesting that you should not expect unpleasant surprises from this signal.
Or another signal, which riskiness we discussed in the previous reviews a lot, – Green Line Signals: February – 140 subscribers and a growth of 510%, March – 296, April – 478, May – 125. We should admit that it is a quite disturbing signal! And, finally, June – the nullified deposit and zero subscribers."
"I repeatedly warned", the leading analyst of NordFX sums up the overview, "that you should be cautious while subscribing to signals which are only several months old. Therefore, selecting this or that signal, I urge to use MetaQuotes service which allows filtering them out not only by the profit size, but also by those parameters, which we paid much attention to today, – on the maximum drawdown and the number of subscribers."

Generalized Forex Forecast for 15 – 19 August 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that early in the week the pair could tick up to the level of 1.1130, and if it was broken through – it would go up to 1.1170. The high of 1.1220 was indicated as the third resistance. The pair fully fulfilled the plan: on Tuesday it reached the level of 1.1130, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the mark of 1.1170, having turned it into the pivot point, and on Friday it took the high of 1.1220 on news from the USA. After this uprise the pair rushed back, failing to drive out of the range of the three-month descending channel;

– as a reminder, speaking of GBP/USD, 100% of experts expressed the view, that during August the pair would retest the bottom within 1.2700–1.2800 again for sure. The pair seemed to hear that forecast, and during the whole week it was aggressively striving to go down, however, so far it could drop only to the mark of 1.2900;

– as to the last week’s acting of USD/JPY, it was impossible to form any consensus: experts pointed down – to the area of 98.90–100.00, the technical analysis reckoned that before going down the pair would first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel within 103.50–104.00. Eventually, moving alongside the sideways channel, the pair failed to reach either mark, keeping within 100.96–102.65;

– USD/CHF – here the half of experts believed that the pair would try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The rest 50% of analysts reckoned that the pair would fail to do so, and that it would move within 0.9735–0.9900. Looking at the weekly chart, it may be concluded that both turned out to be right: during the first two days the pair tried hard to consolidate above the level of 0.9800, and afterwards the bulls gave up, and the pair plunged, wrapping up the week in the area of 0.9750.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– giving forecast for EUR/USD, most experts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, indicate the area of 1.1100 as the nearest support. The area of 1.1230 is expected to act the resistance, and if it is broken through, the pair can make attempts to heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. 80% of indicators on Н4 and D1 agree with this scenario. As for the longer-term outlook, near 100% of experts are sure that the three-month descending trend will continue, and the pair will try to reach the level of 1.0800 or even 1.0600;

– it’s clear, that speaking of the future of GBP/USD, 100% of indicators point to the south. As to the experts and the graphical analysis, they believe that in the short term the pair will fail to rise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair will go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250. It should be specified that around 70% of experts are sure that in the medium term the pair will go south again under the bears’ pressure, where it will try to test the support of 1.2700, and if it is broken through, it will go further down – to the mark of 1.2500;

– as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts and the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel within 100.70–102.50, after which it will upswing to the area of 103.00-104.00. And only 20% of analysts believe that there is still a chance that the pair will go down to the mark of 100.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecasts have been indicating to the magic level of 0.9800 for several months in a row. And this week the experts believe that first the pair will strive for reaching this high, and then it will consolidate above it – at the area of 0.9800–0.9900. Agreeing with this scenario, the graphical analysis specifies that first the pair will make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765 and only then, rebounding from the support of 0.9700–0.9730, will surge northwards.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Generalized Forex Forecast for 22 – 26 August 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up – to the resistance of 1.1230, and if it was broken through, the pair could heave upwards by further 100 points – up to the level of 1.1330. Considering the backlash, common to the levels of support/resistance on D1, the forecast can be considered as panned out: having bounced off the level of 1.1153, as early as Tuesday the pair broke through the first resistance and consolidated above it. By Thursday it had approached the second resistance, by inertia it slipped past further 35 points, and then it returned to the area, specified by experts, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.1325;

– the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as fulfilled, moreover – 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, the experts and the graphical analysis believed that in the short term the pair would fail to rise above the support of 1.2810–1.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair would go up to the area of 1.3200–1.3250, which virtually happened: the last week’s low - 1.2865, high 1.3185;

– for a couple of weeks there were debates about whether USD/JPY could reach the area of 98.90–100.00 or not. First, most analysts agreed with this scenario, and then their number diminished progressively. And when there were only 20% of experts left, the pair hardly passed the support of 100.86, and went one level down, and, finally, reached the landmark level of 100.00, turning it later into the pivot point;

– USD/CHF – the graphical analysis turned out to be the closest to the truth, reckoning that before reaching the level of 0.9800 the pair would make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765, after which it would rebound to the support of 0.9700–0.9730. But even this forecast can be deemed as partially fulfilled. Indeed, on Monday within hours the pair tried to break through the area of 0.9765. Actually it failed and went down. But therewith the bears appeared to be so strong, that they could easily jump over the timid resistance of the opponent, and, instead of expected 50 points, the fall made around 200 points.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– giving forecast for EUR/USD, around 60% of experts, supported by the graphical analysis on Н4, believe that, backing on the support of 1.1300, the pair will try to reach the resistance of 1.1425, after which it will bounce downwards to the area of 1.1200–1.1230. Two options are indicated as alternative viewpoints: the first one is a sideways movement with the pivot point of 1.1300, and the second one – a descending trend from earlier in the week with the same target of 1.1200;

– according to both most experts and the graphical analysis as well as indicators on Н4 and D1, the main forecast for GBP/USD for the near future is continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Currently the pair is keeping within the central line of this horizontal channel – at 1.3080, and according to the readings of the graphical analysis, its movement northwards, which started last week, will continue. With smooth consolidation, the nearest target for this pair is the resistance of 1.3280, and if it is broken through - 1.3350. The third resistance will be at 1.3500. Alternative viewpoint implies rebounding of the pair from the central line to the lower boundary of the specified channel - 1.2850;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, the readings of many indicators differ: 65% on Н1 vote for Buy, 70% on Н4 - for Sell and 30% for Buy, and 100% on D1 vote for Sell. There is also no consensus among the experts – 50% vote for the pair’s rise, 30% - for its fall, and 20% - for its sideways movement alongside the line of 100.00. The level of 099.00 is indicated as the main support here. The only one, who offers more or less agreed forecast, is the graphical analysis on Н4 и D1 – both imply the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00. And only after these goals are met, it will be able to go 300 point lower – to the mark of 099.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 80% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on Н4, reckon that last week the pair reached its local bottom at 0.9535, after which for a while it will be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590. Then the pair is expected to move in an uptrend, the first resistance will be at 0.9710, the next - at 0.9800. The target for autumn remains the same - 1.0000.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Olympic DemoCup from NordFX – Games, Which Traders Make Money on

In parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Forex broker NordFX held its own "Olympic Games".

And so, the Olympic flame went out. For some this sport event became the way to the medal stand, for others – bitterness of defeat.
The rush of winning is in human nature, and this refers not only to wrestlers or track and field athletes, but also... to traders. Each of us wants to prove to the whole world, that he is faster, stronger, and more successful than the others. Sportsmen demonstrate it during the Olympic Games and the championships, as for the traders, DemoCup contest, which has been held for six years now by Forex broker NordFX, gives them such opportunity.

Only virtual demo accounts participate in this two-week contest, which takes place in the middle of each month. However, the prizes awarded to the winners are quite real – monthly prize drawing makes $3500, $3000 from which are divided among 10 winners, and 10 contestants obtain consolation prizes of $50.

In total, since March, 2010, about 300.000 dollars were awarded! Even though anyone can take part in this contest absolutely for free.


The thing, which juices up this contest, is that traders from almost 100 countries take part in it, namely, from: China and Russia, Ukraine and India, Kyrgyzstan and Sri Lanka, Romania, Iran, Thailand, Poland, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Belarus, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Estonia, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, Bulgaria, France, Pakistan, Mexico, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Moldova and the USA, Morocco and Syria, Israel and Nigeria, Bangladesh, Great Britain, Peru, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Tajikistan, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Brazil, Libya, Armenia, Angola, Chile, Spain, Colombia, Ghana, Slovakia, Uruguay, Cote d'Ivoire, Algeria, Yemen, Argentina, Latvia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Philippines, Cuba, Kenya, the Republic of South Africa, Taiwan, Peru, Morocco, Venezuela, Tunisia, Guatemala, Italy, Georgia, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Portugal, Bahrain, Mongolia, Kuwait, Swaziland and even from Saint Helena...

"The geography of the contestants is so broad, that DemoCup can be easily called a world-wide contest", the leading analyst of NordFX and the jury member John Gordon says. "And so we thought why not to hold our own Olympics for the traders in parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. So said - so done: we established the organizing committee, developed special rules and allocated a very plum prize fund of $23100 for the winners.

Unlike standard, regular DemoCup, in the Olympic DemoCup we drew three sets – total 89 – of awards in team and individual scorings. The contests were held from August 8 to August 19, and during all these ten days the heat of the struggle did not subside for even a minute, the traders looked for the slightest opportunity to increase individual and team deposits.
And if in the medal ranking at the Olympic Games in Rio the Russian team took only the 4th place, here it could step on the top of victory podium. In a very short time twenty best traders from the Russian team could increase their deposit by 22.5 times – from two hundred thousand to almost four and a half million virtual dollars! Such that they received yet 10000 real dollars – $500 for each member of the "gold" twenty.


The national team of Ukraine got "silver" and $5000, and the representatives of China, having overtaken Russian sportsmen in Rio, took only the third place in the Olympic DemoCup, having received $2500 as a prize. As for the host country of the Olympic Games – Brazil, it took the fourth place. One more South American country – Venezuela - was in Top 5.
As for individual scores, Russian trader, who increased the deposit from 10.000 to 1.670.000 dollars, that is by 167 times, became the absolute winner here! Having won in all three nominations, he obtained $2000 as an award.
The organizers didn't forget about consolation prizes of $50 each, which got representatives of Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Belarus, Indonesia, Mexico and India.

"I'd like to emphasize", J. Gordon says, "that contests on demo accounts require traders to have not less, and sometimes even more self-control. If, trading on the real account, the trader is constantly struggling with a fear to lose his deposit, he has to overcome euphoria from the first successes and the seeming impunity – because the money is not real. Of course, a loss won’t ruin him, but he won't become a winner either. In DemoCup it is very easy to cross that fine line between a justified risk and mindless adventurism."


"In conclusion", the jury member sums up, "I'd like to congratulate our winners and invite all traders to take part in the next stages DemoCup, which, as a reminder, unlike the Olympic Games, are held every month. The annual prize fund makes $42000, and you can study the rules of the contest on NordFX website, they are simple. I'm sure, that you will appreciate advantageous terms and high quality of the services, which NordFX offers to each client. And the number of our clients, – John Gordon smiles, – already makes about 1.500.000 – a big close-knit family Olympic family!”

Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 August – 02 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100%, but at least 90% fulfilled:

– all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week, considered the level of 1.1200 as the ultimate target, which was actually reached on Friday evening, “supported” by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, having brought hope to investors for the rate hike by the Fed before the end of 2016;

– the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, both the experts and the technical analysis predicted the continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Considering smooth consolidation, the resistance of 1.3280 was indicated as the nearest target, which the pair reached last Wednesday, following which it rebounded to the center of the channel, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3130;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, there was no consensus between the experts and the indicators. The only one, who offered more or less agreed forecast, was the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1, insisting on the pair’s rise to the resistance of 102.00, which virtually happened on Friday, when the pair reached the high of 101.94;

– as a reminder, the forecast for USD/CHF reckoned that for a while it would be moving in a sideways channel of 0.9535–0.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590, then the pair was expected to move in an uptrend with the first target of 0.9710, and the next - 0.9800. Except that the pivot level became the lower boundary of the channel, that forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. During the first half of the week the pair had been moving strictly to the east, after which it went to the north, and by the end of the week it virtually reached the ultimate target, having risen up to the level of 0.9792.
***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. After the speech of J. Yellen a “certain uncertainty” crossed the minds of both analysts and indicators’ readings. In other words, one half of experts reckons that the pair will return to the resistance of 1.1365, the other half believes that, for sure, it will try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200 again. As for the indicators, the ones on Н4 point to the south, and the ones on D1 predict a sideways trend. It appears that in such a situation the economic data from Europe, which are due to be released on Wednesday, and, especially, NFP data - the key indicator of economic health of the USA, which will be released on Friday, September 2, will have the major impact on the pair’s movement. The forecast for NFP reminds of the month old unfulfilled forecast, and it predicts that this figure will fall from 255К to 164К–188К;

– trying to give a forecast for GBP/USD we can see a variety of opinions similar to EUR/USD. However, the whole diversity of views and readings can be reduced to a certain common denominator, according to which the summer sideways trend should be expected. The level of 1.3000 is indicated as the main support, and the level of 1.3320 – as the main resistance. The next resistance will be at 1.3385. With this, the graphical analysis on both Н4 and D1 warns that fist the pair can go down to the support area, and only then, having rebounded from it, it will surge upwards. The ultimate target here will be the third resistance at 1.3560. As to the forecast for autumn in general, 80% of experts have sided with the bears and they predict a possible decline of the pair to the area of 1.2500–1.2800;

– giving forecast for USD/JPY, we can speak of a consolidation of this pair around the pivot level of 100.80. The resistance will be in the area of 102.20, the support - 099.90. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 points out that the pair will seek the area of 0.9840–0.9880, but it can spend from one week to two weeks to break through the support of 099.90. As for the forecast for the upcoming months, only around 70% of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, reckon that the pair will go up to the area of 105.00–107.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, 100% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to move alongside the pivot point of 0.9680 with predominance of bearish trends. The resistance will be at 0.9800, the support – at 0.9640.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 05 – 09 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 50% of experts, which reckoned that, for sure, the pair would try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200, turned out to be right. The indicators on H4, which pointed to the south (where the pair did move early week), as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend (on Thursday the pair returned to the figures of Monday), turned out to be right. Diverse data on the USA economy at the end of the week put in pie, and thus the pair started to jig up and down, and eventually it wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1150 – at that very area, where as far back as last June the long-term sideways trend, keeping EUR/USD within the range of 1.0500 – 1.1500, had started;

– with a small tolerance, the forecast for GBP/USD may be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As anticipated, first the pair went down – to the support of 1.3000, but when 50 points were left to reach it, the pair reversed and by the end of Friday it hit the resistance of 1.3320, specified by the experts, approaching the upper boundary of the sideways trend, alongside which it had been moving during the last two months;

– giving the forecast for USD/JPY for the week, the analysts indicated the level of 102.20 as the main resistance. As for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.00–107.00, the pair was supposed to spend at least one to two months to do so. However, it seemingly intends to do so much faster. At least, in the past week alone it surged up by 250 points and, having broken through the resistance of 102.20, it reached the high of 104.30;

– the assumption that USD/CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to be correct – it finished the week at the same area, it had started from. As a reminder, during the past few months the analysts reckoned that it would strive to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once again also last week. However “the shoot to the north” failed to be convincing, and having got over just 85 points, the pair went back to the landmark level of 0.9800.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. The opinions of the analysts still differ – 40% of them believe that the pair will go up – to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on Н4, predict the pair’s fall first to the support of 1.1125 and then down to 1.1070. Afterwards, in their view, for a while the pair will be moving in a horizontal channel of 1.1000 – 1.1160 with the pivot level of 1.1070;

– clearly, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (75%) point to the north. As for the analysts, we may outline two scenarios. According to the first view (held by 80% of experts and the graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.3370, and, once this happens, try to reach the highs of July 15 and June 29 - 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the remaining 20% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4, they believe that first the pair should plunge to the pivot level of summer sideways channel in the area of 1.3065. We’ll see which of these scenarios will play out early in the week. With this, note that data on the EU economy, and in particular, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision, may influence the change of the trend. However the mega-regulator is expected to keep them on hold;

– giving the forecast for USD/JPY, both the experts and the graphical analysis believe that the pair will be able to get over the resistance within 104.00 – 104.50, and it will have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 reckons that during the month the pair can go further down – to the level of 100.90;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here has been without any major changes for weeks – a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800, which can be clearly seen on D1 and W1 charts. The nearest support will be at the levels of 0.9760 and 0.9735. The resistance will be at 0.9840, 0.9885, 0.9955. With this, if indicators on H4 take a neutral position, then the ones on D1 point up, reflecting the prevalence of bullish trends. The upcoming most significant events worth noting are release of GDP data from Switzerland on Tuesday and data on unemployment rate – on Friday.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 12 – 16 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40% of experts, who believed that the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1300, which virtually happened, were right. As expected, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision and corresponding commentary from the governor of the mega-regulator turned out to be the key event for it. Eventually, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then it reversed and went down, wrapping up the week around the strong level of support/resistance of 1.1230;

– as a reminder, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD last week, 80% of experts, the graphical analysis on D1 and 75% of indicators pointed to the north, indicating 1.3370 and 1.3480 as the levels of resistance. As expected, as early as Monday the pair reached the first target, rebounded, but in a day it overcame this obstacle and surged further upwards. It failed to reach the high of July 15 - 1.3480 – however even the high of 1.3445 may be considered as the upper boundary of the summer sideways channel. Having reached it, the pair reversed and returned to the levels of the early week;

– the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the pair would fail to get over the resistance in the area of 104.00 – 104.50, and it would have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis specified that during the month the pair could go further down – to the level of 100.90. However, data on the USA economy allowed making a breakthrough to the south much earlier – as early as Tuesday, on September 6, the pair literally collapsed, having reached the bottom at the level of 101.20. However later the bulls could pare over half of losses, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 – 103.00;

– if usually USD/CHF shows strong negative correlation with EUR/USD, last week, on top of that, it almost precisely replicated the chart of USD/JPY, simultaneously confirming the forecast for a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800. During the whole year the pair has been haunting this level, which happened also this time – it ended the week in the area of 0.9750 – 0.9785.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which had begun in July, will continue. According to this forecast, for a while the pair can move backing on the support of 1.1200, following which it will go up. The nearest target will be at 1.1420, if it will be broken through - 1.1500. Only one analyst expressed an alternative point of view – in his opinion, in the near future the pair will break through the boundary of the ascending channel and it will go down to the support of 1.1120;

– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators tend towards a sideways movement. The experts, backed by the graphical analysis, determine the boundaries of this channel ranging from 1.3200 to 1.3500. With this, lots of news from Great Britain, released on Tuesday, Wednesday and, especially, on Thursday, can influence the acting of the pair. As for the longer term forecast, 75% of analysts along with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that, for sure, the pair will test the lows of June-July in the area of 1.2750 – 1.2850;

– giving a forecast for USD/JPY, both experts (65%) and the graphical analysis on Н4 and D1 expect the pair to fall down to the support of 101.20, and then even further down to 99.50. 10% predict a sideways trend, and the remaining 25% insist on the pair’s rise to the area of 103.20 – 104.00;

– as to the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here remains unchanged - a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9580. The resistance will be at 0.9840 and 0.9890.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 – 23 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150;

– as expected, last week’s acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair’s strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000;

– predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65% of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25% of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10% of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from – in the area of 102.25-102.60;

– USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first – to the level of 1.1100, and then –100 points further down. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair’s decline makes up to 70%, and the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 is indicated as the target;

– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps – 35% vote for the fall, 30% - for the rise and 35% - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;

– there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY. It is safe to say that Wednesday will be the core driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 – 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards – to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further – up to the high of 111.45;

– the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – is still the same – movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60% of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 – 30 September 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the most intriguing for EUR/USD last week was whether the ascending channel, which had started in July, would continue. However, the acting of the pair didn’t give a clear answer to that question. Indeed, after the breakout, as expected, the pair went down to the support in the area of 1.1100–1.1120. But then, having rebounded from it the pair returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend and, having turned it into the resistance, continued its moving upwards;

– as a reminder, assessing possible acting of GBP/USD, experts split into three almost equal groups: 35% voted for the pair’s fall, 30% - for its rise, and 35% for the sideways trend. Eventually, the last camp turned out to be right – using the central line of summer sideways channel of 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair had been moving eastward during the whole week. With this, the bears didn’t cease to test the level of 1.2950, but the bulls could fight off all those attacks, and eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2960;

– as for USD/JPY, the Interest Rate Decisions of the central bank of Japan and the US Fed (which, as expected, were kept on hold) were no so much determining as the commentary on the monetary policy of those countries. Eventually, having kept within the sideways range during the first two days, on Wednesday the pair surged up – to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as the graphical analysis expected, it plunged. Having broken through the support of 100.50, by inertia the pair went further 40 points down – to the level of 100.10, and afterwards, when it calmed down a little, it returned to the specified area – to the area of 100.50–101.25;

– Wednesday was also determining for USD/CHF. And if until now the pair had been moving without moving apart from the pivot point of 0.9800, then, mirroring the acting of EUR/USD, it plunged. The technical analysis indicated two levels of support – 0.9685 and 0.9640, however, the pair preferred the average value and chose the level of 0.9660 as the week low, and afterwards, having bounced off it, it returned to the area of 0.9685–0.9740.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 point to the north. As for the analysts, 60% of them vote for the pair’s rise, and 40% - for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement of the pair was zero. If the camp, voting for rise, wins, then the pair will return to the range of the ascending medium-term channel and consolidate above its lower boundary, alongside which it has been currently moving. In this scenario the minimum goal is to get to the area of 1.1260–1.1280, the target for the next weeks - 1.1410. As for the supporters of its fall, they indicate the level of 1.1120 as the target, the next support will be at 1.1045. It should be noted here, that unlike the week forecast, in medium term around 75% of experts give priority to the bears;

– the forecast for GBP/USD remains virtually unchanged. The most analysts, fully backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1, insist that the pair will continue to go down to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850, and afterwards a reverse of the trend and return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060 should follow.

– as for USD/JPY, the majority of analysts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on D1, insist that the pair will continue its downtrend. With this, it should be noted, that currently the pair is at the level of very strong support – 101.00, and significant efforts might be required to get over it. If successful, the target of the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, during the month the pair might go further down – to the support of 96.50, afterwards it will return to the level of 101.00;

– talking about the near future of USD/CHF, 60% of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should once again test the low of 0.9660, and possibly reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. However, then the pair will nevertheless return to the pivot point of 0.9800, and more than 70% of analysts are sure about that.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 – 07 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as a reminder, forecasting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts voted for the pair’s rise up to the resistance of 1.1260–1.1280, and on Monday the pair actually reached the level of 1.1279. 40% of experts supported its fall, and on Friday the pair tested the bottom in the area of 1.1150. This time the number of supporters of the sideways trend was equal to 0. But if at least one expert had pointed to the east, his very forecast would have turned out to be the most accurate, as the pair ended the week almost where it had started from – at the level of 1.1240;

– currently GBP/USD is keeping within the lower area of the three-month sideways channel, and most analysts expected the pair to continue its declining to August lows in the area of 1.2850. However, the pair preferred to follow the suit of EUR/USD, and, using the central line of 1.3060 channel as the resistance, it transited to the sideways trend. Eventually the week session was ended, one might say, with a zero result – in five days the pair rose less than by 10 points;

– the same pattern may be observed as for USD/JPY. Here the majority of experts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis, insisted on continuation of the descending trend. With this, it was noted that significant efforts might be required to get over the strong support of 101.00. The area of 99.00-100.00 was indicated as the nearest target. Eventually the pair could approach the level of 100.00 for a short time, following which it strongly surged upward and finished the week at the level of 101.33;

– giving the forecast for USD/CHF, the experts together with the indicators reckoned that it should retest the low at the level of 0.9660, following which it should return to the pivot point of 0.9800. That forecast panned out 100%. In a week the pair made whooping four attempts to break through the specified support, and two of them made headway. And thus, on Thursday the pair freshened its September low, having fallen to the level of 0.9640, and then, as expected, it went back upward, having moved up to the level of 0.9755 on Friday. As for the end of the working week, the pair wrapped up the week the same as the other three pairs of our review, the final area virtually coincided with the starting area, and the pair came into a weekend at the level of 0.9712.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD. The great majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (90%) point to the north. With this, the vast majority of experts (80%) point to the south. Such dissent is possibly connected with the fact that the indicators cannot be aware of Friday (October 7) release of data on employment change from the USA. Forecasts for these data, including NFP, are positive for US dollar. And if NFP, as expected, increases from 151К to 170К–176К, EUR/USD pair can go down to the support of 1.1150. The next support will be at 1.1120. As for a longer term forecast, here 70% of analysts expect the pair to go down below the level of 1.1000;

– certainly, expectations for employment growth in the USA and negative forecasts in respect of industrial output in Great Britain (these data are also released on Friday) cannot but affect GBP/USD quotations. So, 65% of experts, backed by the absolute majority of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to decline to August lows in the area of 1.2850. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it indicates the possibility of its greater decline – down to the low of July 06 at the level of 1.2795, following which the pair will return to the medium-term pivot point of 1.3060;

– as for USD/JPY, plenty of evidence suggests that the pair will transit to the sideways trend. So, the opinions of both experts and indicators on H4 and D1 split almost equally – about half of them vote for the pair’s rise, and the same number – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 also tends to the sideways trend within 100.80–101.80. The graphical analysis on D1 extends the range of the pair’s fluctuations to 99.00–104.00, with this, it expressly points to predominance of bullish sentiment for this upcoming week;

– as before, nobody expects any surprises from USD/CHF. The pair continues a medium-term consolidation in the area of 0.9700–0.9800, diminishing volatility during the whole year of 2016. The main resistance will be at 0.9810, support – in the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, over 75% of experts believe that in the medium term the bulls will convincingly win, and the pair will make an upward breakout, observing the beginning of new year of 2017, at the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

September 2016: Pitfalls of Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX

It is always interesting to watch how people make their choice and then understand why it happened. What is meant here is not future USA presidential elections, but the choice of the investors, subscribing to trading signals in the same-name service in MT4 platform. After all, people are not just subscribing, they virtually trust their, often considerable, funds to a given trader - provider of the signals.
It is well-known that anything money-related requires special attention. Naturally, this also applies to automatic copying of trades of other traders. Technically, it is possible just to choose the provider of the signals showing the maximum profit and copy his trading. But is it always the best option? As usual, the leading analyst of NordFX broker company John Gordon expresses his opinion on the subject. And, as often happens, he is not inclined to look at the choice of the subscribers only through rose-coloured glasses.

Following the results of September 2016, Top 10 of the most popular signals among the subscribers is as follows:

I. CALM (growth 2045%, 498 subscribers),
II. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 91%, 468 subscribers),
III. Seven Majors Renko Scalper (growth 301%, 336 subscribers),
IV. Revolution (growth 4138%, 317 subscribers),
V. New Stable Forex Profit (growth 44%, 261 subscribers),
VI. Small to BIG Money (growth 468%, 143 subscribers),
VII. WaterFragance (growth 1544%, 122 subscribers),
VIII. F Cracker (growth 281%, 98 subscribers),
IX. WaterFragance2 (growth 38%, 91 subscribers),
X. SURVIVOR (growth 2060%, 84 subscribers).

“If you don't mind”, J. Gordon peers at the monitor of his computer, “I will begin the analysis with the signal called CALM – the newbie of our TOP rating, which entered the TOP 10 for the first time. I tell you straight away that it took the first place not only among the subscribers, but also in the rating created by MetaQuotes company. And this is by no means unimportant, as two of these ratings very often don't match among themselves.

So, why do more than fifteen hundred investors have such a deep fascination for that signal, so that they entrusted to it $2.200.000 for management?
I guess, I'll be right in assuming, that its author has solid history as PAMM-manager. This is evident from his another signal – HOZYIN, which is accompanied by numerous deposits and withdrawal of funds.
As for CALM, this signal is a little more than one year old, and during the first 12 months it showed the growth of about 25% per month. With this, the drawdown repeatedly appeared in the area of 40% from the deposit, after which the author of the signal decided to lower the risks at least to 30%. But, as often happens, together with the risk the profitability also fell. According to the forecasts of the author, it will make from 10% to 15% per month now, and it's possible that with such parameters the signal will leave TOP 10 investors' preferences. But so far it makes an impression of a quite stable and profitable signal.”

“Here I want to pay attention to one specific moment connected with online monitoring on the website MQL5.com," J. Gordon continues. “Among the main and most marked parameters ‘The maximum drawdown’ is specified here. This parameter, on the one hand, is rather terrifying for the investors, but on the other hand – it is not reasonably objective. The paradox is that eventually it can only increase, but not decrease in any way.
Let's try to look into the matter of this nuance by the example of the same CALM signal.
When it started in life its author applied a rather risky strategy, and the maximum drawdown on equity at that time made 44%. If he began to risk even more, and the drawdown would increase, let's say, up to 60%, then it would be fixed in the corresponding column. However, our author reduced the risks, and value of his maximum drawdown fell to 30%. So what? He can trade another five, ten, twenty years, reducing the drawdown from 44% to 30%, 10%, to zero! But in this column from here to eternity those 44%, which were formed at the time of ‘wild youth’ of this signal, will be specified.
Does that sound fair?
In my opinion, such lifelong 'black spot' (do you remember the novel “Treasure island” by Stevenson?) isn't not quite fair. And the only option to get rid of this 'curse' is to register a new signal. But then the whole months-long or long-term work of the provider will be ruined, and this new signal will be at the very bottom of the rating, which no potential subscriber and investor will ever get to.
In my opinion, at least one more parameter – the average value of the drawdown for the whole life span of the signal - could be set forth near the maximum drawdown. Until this happens, I urge you to look attentively at the chart of the drawdown, which is included in monitoring of each signal. And before subscribing, compare dynamics of this chart to the data on profitability of the signal. This will give a true and fair view.

Data on profitability is generally very important and evident parameter which allows picturing what to expect from a subscription. Let's take, for example, Revolution signal – the IV place in this rating. The growth in a year and a half makes more than 4000% with the maximum drawdown of 8% – one would wonder what more could it be asked for? But if we look at the results of last months, it turns out that everything is not in the way that it wished to be. Indeed, last May 2015, the profit made 150%, and currently, in recent months, the picture has been absolutely different: April – 1.66%, May – 0, June – 1.53%, July – 6.79%, August – 3.31%, September (at the time of this article writing) – 0.62% at all! What thousands of percents are there to talk about? The annual forecast of MQL5.com – is just over 16% per year. It is up to you, dear readers, to decide whether it is worth subscribing to such signal.”

“And one more piece of advice", J. Gordon continues, “choose for subscription only those signals which can be analyzable on rather long time period – at least about a year. Otherwise, in a number of cases, you can discover unpleasant surprises. I don't want to suspect anybody of anything, but sometimes the results on the growth chart before the thin vertical gray line and after it differ significantly.
To clarify, this line means the beginning of online monitoring on the part of MQL5.com.
So, for example, in August one more signal, which in a month with the drawdown of less than 35% gained over 2800% of profit, approached TOP 10. Like I said: more than 2800% in 31 days! It's incredible! But it had been prior to the beginning of the independent online monitoring. And afterward – in September – it showed 37% of profit and drawdown of almost 60%. (That very drawdown which with a bonus of 100% most often leads to closing of accounts). I don't know how the author of this signal can explain such a decline in profit by 75 times. But I know that in September he instantly registered two new signals which showed the growth of... 6000% and 7000%, respectively, in less than a month!”

“I will watch this fantastic trader closely and I will surely tell you about his progress (or failures). Meanwhile I want to emphasize”, the leading analyst of NordFX sums up, “that we aren't going either to frighten investors, or, on the contrary, persuade them to subscribe to any given signal. We only want to share our experience of analysis of signals, to show what hides behind the figures and charts of monitoring, and to ensure that you received if not stratospheric, but though real profit. Admit that a bird in the hand is worth two in the wood. It is, by the way, one of the fundamental principles of work of our company – stability and reliability. Forex is serious business, which you should take extremely seriously. And, certainly, respectfully!”

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #forex_signals #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/ 

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 – 14 October 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– as a reminder, predicting the future of EUR/USD most experts pointed to the south. NFP print (US Non-Farm Payrolls) was expected to increase from 151К to 170К–176К. On the back of this forecast during the whole second half of the week the bears had been steadily pushing the pair down, to the support of 1.1120, specified by the experts. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the USA threw a curve: first, it adjusted its data for August - 151К instead of 167К, and then it announced that the print for September made 156К. Eventually, instead of expected rise we saw a drop, and ultimately EUR/USD pair returned to the last months’ pivot point – to the level of 1.1200, very quickly;

– last week we predicted decline of GBP/USD pair to the level of 1.2850, or even a greater decline to the low of July 06 to the level of 1.2795. But no one expected the thing happened on Friday – during Asian session trading the British currency plunged to the low seen in March 1985. Having started with the level of 1.2615, in just 3(!) minutes it fell down to 1.1840 at average. (It stopped declining at the level of 1.1940 with one brokers, and at the level of 1.1490, i.e. 450 points lower – with the others). As of this writing the analysts failed to achieve a consensus in respect of the reasons of such a collapse. For example, Bloomberg provided as many as six versions, and The Wall Street Journal reduced them to two versions, indicating robo traders and the president of France, François Hollande, who stated that Great Britain would be seriously affected by Brexit, as the main “suspects”. Afterwards the pound broke through the technical levels of support, which sharply increased currency sell-off by robo traders. The result of what mess these soulless computer programs can cause is, as they say, obvious. However, later with the assistance of people the pound went up again, but it was not easy to regain the losses of almost 1000 points quickly, and GBP/USD wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2430;

– as for USD/JPY, here the graphical analysis on D1 gave the most accurate forecast. As a reminder, it expressly indicated predominance of bullish sentiment and rise of the pair to the level of 104.00. That exactly what happened – gradually moving up, on Thursday the pair reached the high of 104.15, following which the bears regained 125 points and the pair froze at the support area of 102.90;

– USD/CHF. As expected, the pair continued consolidating at the area of 0.9700–0.9800. Supporting bullish sentiment, last Friday it tried to break through the main resistance of 0.9810, however soon it returned to the area, predetermined by the experts, and came into a weekend at the level of 0.9775.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as EUR/USD is keeping within the medium-term pivot area – the level of 1.1200, the indicators on both H4 and D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the analysts, 90% of them expect the pair to fall to the support of 1.1100, and then down to the area of 1.1000. The main resistance will be at the level of 1.1280. With this, we should keep in mind that the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wednesday, October 12), the outcome of the EU Extraordinary Economic Summit (Thursday, October 13), as well as data on US economy and speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, on Friday, October 14, can influence formation of a short-term trend;

– GBP/USD. It is clear that after last Friday events the experts only lift their hands in dismay. In such situation the readings of the graphical analysis are of interest, the one on D1 predicts returning of the pair first to the resistance of 1.2700, and then even higher – up to the area of 1.2850. The thing happened to USD/CHF after January 2015 crisis also votes in favor of this forecast fairness. As a reminder, that time the market had quickly overcome panic sentiment, and just in two months the pair had regained almost all losses. The graphical analysis on H4 provides an alternative version for GBP/USD. According to its readings the pair can continue its downtrend, which had started on September 06. In this case it will decline to the support of 1.2340, and then down to the level of 1.2120;

– USD/JPY. Here just like last week the opinions of the experts split almost equally: just under half of them vote for the pair’s rise, just over half – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it predicts that early week the pair will go up to the resistance of 103.70–103.90, and then decline – first to the level of 102.70, and then – to 101.75. The bottom will be at the level of 100.75. As for the graphical analysis on D1, according to it, this week the pair can get to the high of 106.40, and only then reverse to the south and look for the support of 101.75;

– the forecast for USD/CHF can be made using copy paste for weeks. As before, drawing a triangular pennant, the pair continues gradual consolidation at the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, almost 80% of experts are sure that in the longer term the bulls will win the victory and the pair will breakout upwards, reaching the high of 1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 – 21 October 2016
First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– referring the future EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (90%) predicted that the pair would decline to the area of 1.1000, which did happen. First with a single bound it travelled 220 points by Thursday, then it stalled at the level of 1.0985, following which we saw a 70 points rebound, in a result of which many traders, using averaging of positions, could recover from a deep drawdown and catch a break. Then the pair again reversed to the south and on Friday evening it made a second attempt to consolidate below the support of 1.1000, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.0970;

– as for the future of GBP/USD, the graphical analysis on H4 turned out to be right, it expressly pointed to continuation of the descending trend, which had begun on September 06. The levels of 1.2340 and 1.2120 were indicated as the support levels. This scenario panned out almost entirely. As early as Tuesday during the Asian session the pair easily got over the first support turning it into the resistance, and it sharply plunged further. Inertia of the decline was so strong that the pair couldn’t even fall 30 points below the support of 1.2120, but then, likewise, it sharply went up to the intended resistance area. The entire second part of the week the pair spent trying to get over the newly formed resistance of 1.2165, and eventually it ended the week at the level of 1.2185;

– USD/JPY. As a reminder, experts' opinions split almost equally in this case: just under half of them voted for the pair's rise, just over the half - for its fall. And here, as with GBP/USD, the graphical analysis proved to be right, it pointed to predominance of bullish sentiment and the pair's rise. But as for the ultimate target of the upswing, the forecast differed from reality. The graphical analysis on H4 predicted that the pair would go up to the resistance of 103.70-103.90, and the one on D1 - up to 106.40. In reality, the pair reached the level somewhere in between the specified highs – at the level of 104.65. The end of the week coincided with the high of October 6 - 104.155;

– The medium-term forecast for USD/CHF starts panning out slowly but steadily. The strength of bulls starts outweighing, and thus, the pair is getting closer and closer to the intended target - 1.0100. Last week it could consolidate above the level of 0.9800, but the resistance of 0.9900 appeared to be an insurmountable barrier on its way, and the pair failed to rise above the level of 0.9910.

***
Forecast for the Upcoming Week:
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– it's clear after a deep decline of EUR/USD, all 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 point to the south. As for the analysts, only half of them agree to this opinion. They indicate the support of 1.0900 as the short-term target. The alternative viewpoint provides for return of the pair to the level of 1.1100, the next resistance will be at the level of 1.1200. As for the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, according to it, the pair should first decline to the level of 1.0940, and then transit to the sideways movement within the range of 1.0940-1.1000. In a longer term the number of supporters of fall increases, and now more than 60% of experts reckon that the pair will go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825;

– GBP/USD. Here, about 70% of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and only 5% of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330, and then, maybe it will return to the level of 1.3000. The graphical analysis on D1 strongly disagrees with this scenario, according to its readings the pair can fall below the area of 1.1850. With this, we should take into consideration the fact that for a long time formation of a given trend will depend not so much on the readings of Great Britain as on announcements of politicians on terms and conditions of United Kingdom exit from the EU;

– USD/JPY. For a third week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: one half, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, predicts the upswing of the pair to the high of 105.00, the second half votes for its decline to the level of 102.80 and further down - to the area of 102.00. The graphical analysis on D1 also votes for fall and transition to the sideways trend within 102.80-104.30;

– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 60% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4 believe that the bulls' strength have weakened and the pair is in for a temporary rebound to the benchmark area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40% of experts reckon that the ascending trend hasn't ended yet, and the pair will be able to go further 50 points - up to the high of 0.9950. The medium-term target remains the same - 1.0100, though the number of supporters of such a scenario decreased from 80% to 65% as compared to the last week.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #forex signals #binary_options
http://nordfx.com/ 

Broker can make you rich in forex trading if you get the right on like trade24. They are best and well recognize in forex market. Their trading platform is visually so much attractive and technically so much useful with tools. My trading is become quite easy especially because I am getting the right forex signals from this broker and this will allow me to trade or exit at the right time.

---

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that almost 70% of experts, supported by an overwhelming majority of indicators, expected the pair to continue falling, naming the vicinity of 1.2165 as one of the targets. They were right - on 1 March, the pair found a local bottom at 1.2155. But then, thanks to the statements of the new Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, and US President Donald Trump, the dollar began to lose its hard-won positions. Trump's words about the intention to introduce import duties on steel and aluminium led to some talking about a new trade war, especially after the sharp and prompt reaction by the Head of the European Commission. As a result, the pair soared by 170 points and completed the week at 1.2320;

- As for GBP/USD, analysts' opinions split exactly halfway: 50% voted for the growth of the pair, and 50% for its fall. (In the medium term, the number of bears' supporters increased to 70%). The last forecast was absolutely correct, and the pair dropped to 1.3710. After that, there was a rebound, and it froze at 1.3797;

- USD/JPY. 30% of analysts, considering the breakdown of the lower line of the mid-term side corridor 108.00-114.75 false, expected the pair to rise above 107.80. Starting on Monday, the pair did indeed go up, quickly reaching the height of 107.67. However, a U-turn followed and, as though under the orders of the expert majority (70%), the pair tested support at 105.54 and completed the week 20 points higher;

- We now move to cryptocurrencies. With a standard leeway, the trends and goals of Bitcoin - the driver of the cryptocurrency market - were correctly determined. As expected, BTC/USD continued to move near the $10,000 horizon. The forecast assumed a decline of this pair to 8,400-9,040 at the beginning of the week (the reality was 9,253), after which it was expected to turn and return to 9,900-11,000 (the reality was 11,160).
As for the other cryptocurrency pairs NordFX serves, they enjoyed a relatively calm weak. The range of fluctuations for XRP/USD, for example, was just $0.15 compared to $0.35 a week earlier.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- Almost 60% of experts are confident that a trade war is imminent, and that the dollar will therefore continue its decline. This means EUR/USD will go up at least to the highs of this year’s January-February at 1.2500-1.2555 in the next couple of weeks. The nearest resistance is 1.2400.
Graphical analysis on D1 is even more resolute. According to its forecast, the pair’s northwards hike may even take it to the highs of spring-summer 2013 at 1.2755.
As for the oscillators, they are set to buy on H4, but remain bearish on D1. It should be noted that the number of supporters of the fall of the pair increases from 40% to 55% among experts in the medium term.
We must also consider that at the time of writing the results of the parliamentary elections in Italy - an event that could seriously affect the European currency - are not yet known. One should also pay attention to the results of the ECB meeting on Wednesday 7 March and to the US labour market data announcement on Friday 9 March;


- GBP/USD. The indicators here are overwhelmingly (85%) painted red. As for analysts, the number of supporters of the fall of the pair is at 60%. The main goal is in the 1.3455-1.3600 range. Meanwhile, 40% of experts, 15% of oscillators, and graphical analysis on D1 are all bearish. The nearest targets are the resistance levels at 1.3855, followed by 1.4065 and 1.4145;

- A press conference on the next decisions of the Bank of Japan should take place on Friday 9 March. However, experts do not expect it to offer any surprises. 70% of them, supported by trend indicators, look south, predicting the fall of USD/JPY to 102.75-104.30.
As for the alternative point of view, the remaining 40% of analysts, supported by 15% of oscillators, see the pair as oversold. If these signals prove correct, the pair will still try to approach the lower boundary of the medium-term side corridor at 108.00. The nearest resistance is 106.40 and 107.65.
Graphical analysis on both H4 and D1, however, shows a rare unity that suggests that the pair will initially decline to the support at 104.75, and then turn and rise to 106.40-107.15;

- BTC/USD. The main forecast sees Bitcoin grow to $12,160-12,980, after which, in the second half of the week, it will U-turn and return to 10,350-10,850.
ETH/USD may rise to 1,160 in the first half of the week, after which, just like with Bitcoin, a trend reversal and a fall to the 900-940 zone are expected.
Experts expect similar dynamics from LTC/USD as well: an initial rise to 240, followed by a drop to 180-200.
As for XRP/USD, which moved in a very narrow side corridor for the previous week, an increase in market volatility may drive it upwards to 1.003-1,075, after which it could return to the support at 0.915.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Most experts (60%) had expected the growth of the euro first to 1.2400, and then even higher to the highs of past January-February at 1.2500-1.2555. In the first half of the week, the pair did go up, but the bulls’ efforts were enough to raise it only to 1.2445, after which the bears played back all the losses, and the pair finished almost at the same place where it started the week, namely 1.2305;

- As for GBP/USD, the volatility of this pair was not as strong as expected, and the pair stayed within the 1.3765-1.3930 range and did not reach any of the set goals. As a result, its movement can be described as a lateral trend with Pivot Point 1.3850;

- USD/JPY. 40% of analysts talked about the pair’s upward ambitions to the resistance of 106.40 and possibly even higher to 107.65. This forecast was supported by the 15% of oscillators which signalled it was oversold. As for graphical analysis, it suggested that the pair would rise to 106.40-107.15, which actually happened: the weekly maximum was fixed at the altitude of 107.05, and the week ended at around 106.80;

- We now reach cryptocurrencies: an extremely difficult asset to forecast due to their incredibly high volatility. The trends we suggested proved 100% correct: a slight initial rise followed by a sharp fall. For BTC/USD, we had predicted growth at the beginning of the week (it did go up to 11.670), followed by a fall (it fell by almost 30% to the level of 8.320). For ETH/USD, we predicted its decline by the end of the week to the 900-940 zone. However, Ethereum’s collapse exceeded expectations, and the pair recorded the weekly low at 635. The forecast for LTC/USD was as follows: a rise to 240 (ended up being 217.30) followed by a fall to 180-200 (in reality, 157.50). As for XRP/USD, which moved in a very narrow range at the end of February, the advent of spring marked its exit from hibernation. First, Ripple sharply gained weight to 1.025 per coin, and then lost almost 35%, dropping to 0.670.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- Almost 55% of experts are sure that President Trump’s introduction of import duties on steel and aluminium will increase the attractiveness of the dollar, as a result of which EUR/USD will drop to at least 1.2000. However, a fairly large number of analysts believe that the pair will remain in the side channel 1.2150-1.2550 for some time, along which it has been moving since mid-January.
As for the medium-term forecast, the opinion of experts and the readings of graphical analysis are diametrically opposite. The former expect that the pair will fall to the level of 1.1900, whilst the graphs suggest upwards ambitions to 1.2800. The oscillator readings do not give clear signals either. On H4, 85% look down, and 15% signal that the pair is oversold. As for D1, there are even fewer clear benchmarks: one third of the oscillators suggest a fall, one third are neutral and one third predict the growth of the pair;

- GBP/USD. The indicators here are also indecisive, with some coloured red, some yellow, some green. But analysts, for the most part (80%), predict the continuation of the downward trend that began on 25 January. Supports are 1.3760 and 1.3585.
An alternative point of view is represented by 20% of experts and graphical analysis on D1, according to whose forecast the pair should try to break through the resistance at 1.4065. Te support is in the 1.3710-1.3760 zone;


- we should not rely on oscillators and, especially, on trend indicators in giving a forecast for USD / JPY this week. It is impossible to designate any obvious tendencies there. The opinions of experts are divided equally as well: 33% side with the bulls, 33% join the bears, and the remaining ones freeze in the middle.
As for graphical analysis, it draws a lateral trend on H4 within 105.25-107.65. Further developments can be seen on the D1 chart, where the pair breaks the lower boundary of this channel and descends to the 103.00 horizon;

- as for basic cryptocurrency pairs, experts expect the continuation of the downtrend. Thus, BTC/USD may go down to 8.320, and, in the event of a break through this level, fall to 7.740. Nothing good is predicted by analysts for Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple either, which, according to their forecast, can lose another 10% to 20% of their value.

We should stress here that even the smallest events can influence the trends and volatility of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we strongly suggest that you pay attention to smart money management, which, combined with leverage of 1: 1000, will significantly reduce your trading risks. After all, in order to buy 10 Bitcoins, 100 Ethereums, 500 Litecoins or 100,000 Ripples, with such leverage you will only need $100, and you can keep the rest of your money in reserve.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which proved fully correct for cryptocurrencies:

- EUR/USD. When giving forecast for this pair, a large number of analysts claimed that the pair would continue to stay in the 1.2150-1.2550 side channel which it has been moving in since mid-January. It ended up doing just that, albeit with volatility even lower than expected - the difference between the highest (1.2412) and the lowest (1.2260) points of the week was only about 150 points. By the end of the week, the pair finished at 1.2288, only 17 points below where it had started;

- Even though only 20% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 suggested the growth of GBP/USD, the pair started going up at the very start of the week and had already approached the level of 1.4000 by Tuesday. However, despite all the efforts of the bulls, the pair was unable to break through this resistance, and by the end of the week it retreated to 1.3935, which can now can be considered the Pivot Point of this February-March;

- USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, expert opinions were divided evenly last week: 33% sided with bulls, 33% joined the bears, and the rest froze in the middle. This ambivalence is approximately how the pair behaved itself: at first it fell a little, then grew a little, then fell again. The most forecast accurate was that given by graphical analysis, which had suggested the lateral channel of 105.25-107.65, within which the pair ended up moving all week (minimum - 105.59, maximum 107.28);

- We now reach cryptocurrencies: Regarding bitcoin, experts expected its fall to 7.740: BTC/USD fell to 7.638 by Thursday. Thus, the forecast turned out to be very accurate, and the error in determining the target was only about 1%.
Forecasts for Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple were also disappointing for the owners of these coins and, to their great despair, fully accurate. Experts predicted these virtual currencies would lose 10% to 20% in value. On 15 March, all these pairs reached the local bottom: Ethereum fell by 21.67% (from 721.50 to 565.09), Litecoin by 20.4% (from 186.71 to 148.59) and Ripple by 25.9% (from 0.767 to 0.568). However, the bulls then managed to win back part of the losses. Thus, by the end of the week, ETH/USD had lost 15.6%, LTC/USD lost 10.2%, and XRP/USD lost 18.0%. BTC/USD had the lowest loss, about 7.7%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- Dollar pairs expect important events on Wednesday 21 March: prime amongst these is the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. According to forecasts, it will be increased from 1.50% to 1.75%, which will most likely result in dollar strengthening.
As for EUR/USD, more than 80% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators look to the south. However, almost half of the experts, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that at the beginning of the week the pair will still stay in the sideways trend within 1.2275-1.2445. 15% of oscillators signal that the pair is oversold, and also indicate that the bulls still retain some force and will try to push the pair up on the eve of the Fed decision.
In case the pair falls, the first support zone is 1.2150-1.2200, the next one is at 1.2000;

- GBP/USD. At the end of last week, the indicators on H4 took a neutral position, whilst those on D1 continued to look up, opining that both the two-week trend, and the broader one stretching from January 2017, will continue. The nearest targets are 1.4000, 1.4065 and 1.4145.
However, unlike indicators, experts can take important economic data into account. This will be plentiful next week both for the pound and the dollar, with Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all seeing the release of important data. Here, most analysts (60%) still expect the weakening of the British currency and the fall of the pair. The nearest support is in the 1.3710-1.3760 zone. In the event of its breakdown, in the medium term the pair may descend to 1.3445-1.3585;


- The view on the future of the USD/JPY is as follows: 70% of the experts, graphical analysis on D1 and 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1, look southwards, waiting for the pair to continue moving in the medium-term channel. The resistances are 106.40, 106.75 and 107.25. Supports are 105.25, 104.50 and 104.00.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the number of bull supporters among analysts increases from 30% to 65%. The goal is to climb into the 108.00-110.00 zone;

- The forecast for the main currency pairs is the following. BTC/USD: experts expect the pair to return to the highs of the previous week. According to their forecast, the pair should rise to 8,850-9,400. ETH/USD: growth to 655.00, and then on to 670.00-740.00. LTC/USD: rise to 170.00-181.00, and, in case of a break through the resistance, a rise to 193.00. XRP/USD: the target is 0.688-0.780, at with the pair possibly rising to 0.810 at the end of the week.

We would like to stress at this point that even minor events can influence the trends and volatility of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, we strongly suggest that you pay attention to smart money management, which, combined with leverage of 1: 1000, will significantly reduce your trading risks. After all, to buy 10 Bitcoins, 100 Ethereums, 500 Litecoins or 100,000 Ripples, with such leverage you will only need $100, and you can keep the rest of your money in reserve.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

Dear Clients,

We are pleased to inform you that starting on 19 March 2018 you will be able to deposit and withdraw funds from your trading account in Ethereum (ETH), alongside USD and Bitcoin.

The list of trading instruments in the Pro and Zero accounts includes six cryptocurrency pairs (BTCUSD, LTCUSD, ETHUSD, DSHUSD, XRPUSD and BCHUSD). Like for other trading instruments, the leverage ratio for these can go up to 1: 1000.


Yours faithfully,
NordFX


#forex #crypto #broker #Ethereum #nordfx