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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The preliminary Eurozone business activity data came in worse than expected, in fact, the release pointed to a clear deterioration. We believe that report was not a reason for the euro weakening, as it is necessary to wait for more definitive data. The main reason was the Dragi’s performance who hinted at the possible quantitative easing program expansion.

The debt market still shows an increase optimism regarding the British assets. The EUR/GBP long positions closure, after the ECB meeting on January the 21st , plays into the Sterling bulls hands. The UK December retail sales fell by 1.0% against the forecast of -0.1%.

The Japanese yen has safely returned to the strategic range of 118.40-120.70 which has been controlled by the BoJ entire 2015. Still the BoJ recently moved away from the yen control, focusing on the general economy problems. According to the Finance Ministry the December exports continued to decline. Many economists believe that the Chinese economy weakening is a reason of this decline. Still the yen disregarded this report.

The oil market strengthening is a welcome factor for the commodity currencies. However, last Friday “black gold” growth did not support the Australian and New Zealand dollars.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The IFO business environment indicator attracted traders’ attention being correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics. The production and non-production PMI slowdown does not inspire and we do not expect to see the release with the data better than the consensus forecast. The risk appetite keeps growing among investors. The stock market bullish sentiment is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading down. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may go deeper and reach 1.0630 soon.



Pound

General overview

The UK National Statistics Office reported about the retail sales reduction last Friday. Despite the negative release the British pound was in demand that might be a sign of strong buyers presence.

The oil market stabilization will be well received by investors. The Brent quotes rose by 10% last two trading days. As you know the Pound and the oil quotes are closely connected. We may expect the pound growth attempts.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is in a flat.

Trading recommendations

In the scenario where the buyers are involved the potential growth targets are two levels of resistance: 1.4350, 1.4470. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure.



Yen

General overview

The S&P 500 index tested the minimum levels of 2015 in the past week after which we saw a strong demand and the price growth. The increased demand for "risky assets" has traditionally been a negative factor for the Japanese yen as the funding currency. The rapid oil quotations growth brought the US stock energy sector in leaders.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States can please traders with a Conference Board positive report. The January Michigan University consumer confidence indicator came in at fresh 6-month high amid real incomes growing expectations. The average earnings growth was 2.5% at the end of 2015, with an inflation of 0.7%. Thus, the population real incomes increased by 1.78% while the real incomes increased by 0.99% in 2014. Positive data would support the US currency and we do not ignore the "risky assets" demand dynamics.

The euro significant strengthening against the dollar was the result of several factors. The very first one is the upcoming Fed meeting today. Traders believe that the FED will not increase the refinancing rate and that decision may weaken the dollar. The Fed will monitor the macro-economic dynamics that demonstrates albeit sluggish, but a growth. The second factor is government debt securities yields growth where the three month bills yield increased from 0.255% to 0.305%.

We think that bulls can take a break and we will see a gradual pound decline. The Bank of England left the rate unchanged. Mark Carney, the Bank Governor said that there was no reason to do it. They are ready to reconsider the current situation when the country economy shows a stable growth.

The yen continued to strengthen against the US dollar when the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso supported the Bank position and its intention to act if needed. The main Bank of Japan target is the inflation rate of 2%. Aso expressed the hope that the regulator would continue its efforts to achieve the price stability, taking into account the economic and price conditions.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The IFO indicator has dropped to its lowest level in eleven months which is a negative factor for the single European currency. This indicator is closely correlated with the Germany GDP dynamics, and its negative data is the first wake-up call for the market. The Germany economic growth slowdown is always painful perceived by traders.

We also note the mechanical engineering and the automotive industries rising pessimism, mainly due to low exports.

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The move below 1.0730 will signal the presence of sellers. The price may reach 1.0630 soon. The level of 1.0925 is an obstacle for the pair’s growth. Shall the EUR/USD breaks that level the pair could escalate up to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The average earnings slowdown coupled with the oil prices collapse help to reduce the short-term inflation expectations. The pound strengthening against the euro during 2015 is putting strong pressure on the British industry. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.1%, while the Cable devalued against the euro by 7.5% in the past two months which creates a positive foundation for the second quarter of this year.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470.

We have a weak buy signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen is horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buying scenario may become a reality soon. Buyers can leave the Ichimoku cloud behind heading to the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650. In the event that the sellers manage to force below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure.


Yen

General overview

The United States can please traders with the positive Consumer Confidence data amid real incomes growing. The real income growth rate peaked in the last nine years which together with low unemployment (5%) contribute to the consumer optimism growth.

However, the bond market is showing the USA and Japanese government bond yield differential decrease which does not allow counting on strong price growth.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market was able to develop immunity towards the Chinese stock market bad news. The Chinese index again lost more than 6%, still only the gold reacted to this news with a growth the rest currencies remained at their positions.

The US economic data came out neutral. The January service sector business activity index came in at 53.7 versus the December value of 54.3. The forecast was 53.9. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board showed an increase from 96.3 to 98.1.

As expected the Fed statements were quite "dovish". The regulator is concerned about the further economy development and does not exclude the further rate hike in March.

Investors stake on the dollar strengthening. According to GfK the Germany consumer confidence index surfaced a decline from 9.4 to 9.3 in February. According to the BBA the December Mortgage Approvals showed 43.975Kwith the expectations of 45K. The December New Home Sales came in at 0.544M.

The Japanese yen is growing on expectations that the Friday Central Bank meeting will be a soft one.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Analysts expect a bearish sentiment to return soon for two reasons. The US corporations pleased investors with the fourth quarter positive report. Secondly, we cannot ignore the oil market dynamics – the Brent and WTI rose by 5% the other day that is possible only in case of risky assets high demand.

All the traders' attention was focused on the Fed decision regarding the rate. As it was expected the regulator left the rate unchanged. Still the market is full with rumors that the rate hike will take place the first spring month.

The first support resides at 1.0800 and then it goes at 1.0730. The first resistance comes in at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Kijun-sen is showing a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is heading upwards crossing the Tenkan-sen. The pair shall advance the north until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect a flat. The further pair movement depends on what the support or the resistance line the pair breaks. The move below 1.0730 is a bearish signal. The level of 1.0925 break may send the pair up to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

We think that there three reasons to long. We expect the positive mortgage lending data amid the labor market positive trend. According to the Markit the December construction industry also showed growth which confirms the positive trend. The UK low inflation (0.2% in 2015) contributes to a real income increase and is a positive factor for the real estate market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The first resistance is at 1.4350, the next one is at 1.4470.

The sell signal got stronger as the price is moving from the Cloud. The price is still in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are both horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Daily and weekly technical studies remain bearish. Shall the pair break below 1.4080 the downward movement will be continued to the 40th figure. The upward targets are the resistance levels: 1.4470, 1.4650.



Yen

General overview

We should expect the pair’s growth amid "risk appetite" growth among investors. The US corporations positive quarterly reports returned "bulls" on the market. The stock market and high-yield cross-rates growth indicate carry trade positions increase and in this regard the yen will be under pressure as the funding currency. The debt market also confirms the USD/JPY upward trend: the US and Japanese government bonds profitability differential are being expanded.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance lies at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 120.40 is possible.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.01.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve is concerned about the financial market turbulence. The Fed statements did not have any effect neither on the EUR/USD pair nor the other assets.

The EUR/USD trades were restrained yesterday - investors continue to evaluate the Fed two-day meeting results, the first one in the new year.

Germany has surfaced the inflation preliminary data whose growth rate may accelerate from 0.3% to 0.5%. The ECB is cautious about its quantitative easing program, as the Germany inflation dynamics is relatively well. The data came in at the forecasted median. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

The Initial Jobless Claims number showed - 278000. The forecast was 282000. The labor market is relatively stable, even though all visible signs of long-term unemployment growth are seen which has a negative impact on the overall unemployment level. In addition, the expected durable goods declined by 0.6%. However the decline was 5.1%.

Yesterday the UK 4th quarter GDP was published. The GDP growth rate was 2.27% for the first nine months of 2015, as it was forecasted. It is worth noting that the first nine months of 2014 the growth rate was 2.87% which indicates the UK economic slowdown phase. The data came in at the forecasted median. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The USD/JPY pair is still trading in a narrow channel. However, concerns that the Bank of Japan will announce the next mitigation measures at the end of the two-day meeting are putting pressure on the yen. Japan published the retail sales which decreased by 1.1% in comparison to the same period in 2014.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The US Federal Reserve left the rate unchanged. The regulator noted the short-term inflation expectations decreased amid the low energy prices. According to the Fed the rate may be increased in March, still its growth depends on the incoming macroeconomic statistics.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK 4th quarter GDP was the main event this week for the country. The industrial production decline and the negative trade balance alongside with the high pound value are negative factors that traditionally impede the economic growth. The fourth quarter service PMI also showed a slowdown. The GDP data came in at the forecasted median: 0.5% (q/q) and 1.9% (y/y).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan will announce the monetary policy meeting results after which we can see the USD/JPY upward trend acceleration. Low energy prices may force the monetary authorities to revise their inflation forecasts and give a hint to investors to the possible further monetary policy easing. As the market is acting proactively, we can assume that many investors may long in advance.

The first support resides at 118.40, the next is at 117.80. The first resistance stands at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 119.20, 120.40. If the price falls it will get to 118.40 and 117.80.



Franc

General overview

The Fed left the interest rate in the previous target range of 0.25-0.50% per annum. The rate was changed last month and the market has not seen any noticeable effect yet. The Fed accompanying statement was quite soft, although the regulator promised to raise the rates further.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0280.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidaing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.0100. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States data disappointed traders and became the reason of its weakening. The Initial Jobless Claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million which again increases the unemployment risk.

The preliminary Germany inflation data coincided with the forecasts, having confirmed the assumption about the price growth acceleration from 0.3% to 0.5%. The Germany retail sales growth rate is slowing from 2.3% to 1.5%. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a decrease.

According to the UK National Bureau of Statistics the previous year 4th quarter GDP increased compared with the previous quarter. The economy managed to show a growth of 0.5% in Q4, while the same indicator expanded by only 0.4% in Q3. The UK economy has grown by 2.2% for the entire 2015. By the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD showed a decrease.

The Bank of Japan is determined to launch the new monetary stimulus. Unexpectedly, the regulator introduced the negative deposits interest rates. This decision was taken due to the low inflation level and the global financial markets instability. The Central Bank lowered the commercial banks deposits rate to 0.1% from 0.1%. According to the Bank statement, the regulator is ready to go for an even greater rates decrease, if it considers this measure necessary. The asset purchase program amount was maintained at 80 trillion yen. The pair USD/JPY sharply increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Due to the lack of important macroeconomic statistics we shall pay our attention to the world's leading stock exchanges dynamics. Last Friday investors' attention was focused on two reports: the first euro area inflation estimate (the data came in at the forecasted median 0.4% y/y) and the US GDP Quarterly Report.

The fourth quarter US GDP preliminary data was expected with strong slowdown from 2.1% to 0.8% but it came in at the level of 0,7%.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

It may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.0800 and 1.0730.



Pound

General overview

The UK GDP increased by 2.2% in 2015. The economic slowdown is a negative factor for the currency, but the pound was in a correction phase to the downward trend and the price growth may be continued.

According to the USA GDP leading indicators we should not expect positive data. The release came worse then it was expected: 0,7% against the forecasted 0,8%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4320, 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

Low energy prices help to reduce the Japanese inflation expectations. The weak retail sales indicate the personal consumption volume reduction which is a negative factor for the economy as a whole as well as for the inflation, in particular.

The Central Bank is under pressure from weak economic indicators and the Japanese Government has taken to some extent non-standard solution to low the rate to 0.1% and to maintain the redeemed assets volume at 80 trillion yen a year.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 121.30 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

By the end of the trades the dollar strengthened against the franc. The United States news flow disappointed traders and contributed to the dollar weakening. Thus, initial jobless claims number fell to 294 thousand. The Continuing Jobless Claims index has increased from 2.219 million to 2.268 million, which again increases the unemployment risk. The durable goods orders decreased by 5.1%, although the market expected a decrease by 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0190, the next one is at 1.0100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0280, the next one is at 1.0370.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target – 1.0280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0370.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The USA contradictory statistics could not undermine the dollar's strength. According to the preliminary data, the USA economy grew by only 0.7% in the fourth quarter against the forecast of + 0.8% and the previous value of 2.0%. Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures index rose in line with expectations at 1.2%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 92.0 against the forecast of 93.0 and the previous value of 93.3. In general, the economic picture is rather mixed. The recent Fed announcements that the country economy slowed down prepared the market to weak GDP data.

The January euro zone moderately positive inflation release cooled the bears' ardor who tried to play the card of a future monetary policy easing by the ECB in March. The US manufacturing sector ISM was also expected with negative data. The index came in at the level of 48.2 against the forecasted 48.1. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar strengthened.

According to the CBI the negative industrial orders balance dynamics signaled that the production sector PMI report could be worse than the consensus forecast. However the data came in better then forecasted median: 52.9 against 51.8. The pair pound/dollar sharply increased by the end of the trades.

The Bank of Japan became the chief newsmaker last week when the Bank had introduced a negative interest rate the first time in its history. According to the BoJ this rate will remain until the regulator sees a stable inflation rate of 2% per year. The pair dollar/yen slightly decreased by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to Draghi the euro zone economy recovery should be supported by the effective policy. In addition, he noted that the fiscal policy should contribute to the recovery process as well.

The euro was not surprised by the euro area inflation data. The consumer prices rose 0.4% y/y against the previous value of 0.2%. The core inflation accelerated to 1% in line with expectations. The euro zone published the Markit January Manufacturing PMI: the data came in at 52.3, in line with expectations.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will be trading in a side corridor between the levels of 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The 10-year UK government bonds yield is decreasing relative to their US and Germany counterparts which reduces the investment attractiveness in the British assets. On Monday, the United Kingdom published the manufacturing PMI. The data came in at the level of 52.9 against the forecasted 51.8.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4400 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4480 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan decision to cut the rate expanded the United States and Japanese government bond yield differential which increases demand for US assets supporting the dollar. The "risky assets" demand pressures the Japanese yen as a carry trade funding currency.

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to form a consolidation under the resistance level of 121.30.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

Risk aversion has weakened the US currency position. The global economy depressing picture became the reason for the growing pessimism. Initially, the risk aversion was triggered by the China report where the manufacturing sector PMI fell from 49.7 to 49.4 while analysts expected a more modest drop to 49.6.

The Eurozone December Unemployment Rate showed 10.4%, the forecast was 10.5%. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

The UK has published the Construction PMI index for January. The index came in at 55.0. The Bank of England revealed the mortgage market statistics: the Mortgage Approvals for December grew by 0.59% to 70.84 thousand, while the Net Lending to Individuals was 3.2 billion pounds for December. Investors expected the PMI reduction compared to the previous month. The forecasted median was 57,5 against the previous 57,8. In fact the index came in at the level of 55,0. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a growth.

The 10-year Japanese government bonds yield continued their falling which is a strong bearish factor for the yen. After the Bank of Japan decision to introduce the negative interest rates the US and Japanese securities differential yields have been expanding which increases the investment attractiveness in US assets. However the pair USD/JPY fell on the yesterday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone published statistics did not impact the pair. The German manufacturing PMI exceeded traders’ expectations, reaching 52.3 against the forecast and the previous value of 52.1. Meanwhile, the Markit Manufacturing PMI has coincided with the forecast at the level of 52.3.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0730. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will form a consolidation at the current levels. The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth.



Pound

General overview

The UK favorable statistics supported the pound. The Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.9, exceeding the forecast of 51.8 and the previous value of 52.3. The weak USA statistics supported the GBP/USD as well.

The UK published construction PMI for January (55,0 against the forecasted 57,5).We expect the quarterly inflation report on Thursday which may disappoint investors with the revised inflation and GBP estimates to the negative direction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

The Japanese manufacturing PMI amounted to 52.3 against the forecast of 52.4. The US revealed the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (at the forecasted median 47,8) and the New York ISM (718,9 against the previous 716,6).

The first support resides at 120.40, the next is at 119.20. The first resistance stands at 121.30, the next one is at 122.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.40 will be opened




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

This week trading showed an increased turbulence, the dollar has collapsed on all fronts. This week has been the worst one for the dollar in the last 7 years. The USA macroeconomic statistics keeps coming out negative, the commodity market is showing growth which traditionally has a negative impact on the dollar value.

The US published the Initial Jobless Claims number (285000 against the forecasted 280000), the Unit Labor Costs (4,5% against the forecasted 3,9%) and the Factory Orders (-2,9% against the forecasted -2,8%). Today all traders’ attention will be focused on the NFP.

The EUR/USD set a fresh 3-month high. The ECB published its meeting minutes. According to Mario Draghi if the Bank decided to prolong the stimulus measures the side measures wouldn’t be an obstacle. The trades on the pair EUR/USD closed with a growth.

The pound reached the 45th figure in the background of moderately positive Markit Services PMI. The January index figure is lower than the annual average which does not allow us to count on the growth acceleration in the leading sector of the UK economy. On Thursday, all of the players' attention was focused on the Bank of England meeting. Traders did not expect any surprise paying attention to the regulator assessment of the economic situation in the country and the monetary policy perspective. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly fell.

Lack of demand for "risk assets" plays into the USD/JPY bears hands. Investors are concerned that the US GDP in 2016 could grow less than 2.4% - such forecast was voiced at the Fed December meeting. These concerns are caused by the weak manufacturing and the service sectors ISM. The pair dollar/yen showed a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The escape from the risky assets, coupled with the widespread dollar sales caused the euro growth. The US currency seems to have less faith in the Fed's plans to tighten the monetary policy. According to the European Commission the GDP growth forecast remained at 1.9% in 2017, while the GDP growth forecast for 2016 was revised to 1.7% from previous 1.8%.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1350 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The pound keeps showing positive dynamics due to the several factors. Firstly, the oil prices growth, secondly – the dollar weakening and thirdly, the UK chances to leave the EU have been significantly decreased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4630, the next one is at 1.4700.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4630, 1.4700.



Yen

General overview

The BoJ head Kuroda hinted that the regulator may continue to lower the interest rates as the monetary policy easing has no boundaries. He also promised to develop new instruments to stimulate the economy.

The first support resides at 117.00, the next is at 116.20. The first resistance stands at 117.80, the next one is at 118.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 116.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 115.40 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The Switzerland National Bank head Mr. Jordan reiterated that the franc was overbought and the Central Bank was ready to intervene if necessary. However, Jordan declined to comment whether the Bank had intervention lately. Switzerland published the Consumer Climate index Q1 report. The index showed -14.0. The previous value was -18.0.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9850. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

All traders' attention was directed to the USA labor market statistics. Despite the fact that the NFP has not reached even to a modest forecast (it showed 151 000 versus the forecast of 190 000), and the previous value was revised downward, the dollar was able to consolidate its positions.

The US Average Hourly Earnings showed a strong jump of 0.5% from the previous 0.0%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate reached a cyclical low level of 4.9%, having fallen unexpectedly by 5.0%. The wages growth rate is crucial for the Fed, pointing to the inflation acceleration prospects that is why the dollar ignored the weak NFP and focused on the Hourly Earnings results. The EU did not present any significant data. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

The Friday's labor market release contributed to the US and UK government bond yield spreads expansion which is traditionally a bearish factor for the British currency. On the other hand, the oil market bulls prefer to long which in its turn positively affects the pound value. However the pair point/dollar rebounded upwards after a decrease.

The Monetary Policy Meeting minutes will be published on February 18th. Meanwhile according to the Bank of Japan chairman the volatility in the world markets have a negative impact on business sentiment. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

This Monday was rather meager at the events. The Eurozone GDP data for Q4 will probably not show signs of growth expansion. According to the forecast the GDP shall increase by 0.3% q/q, like in Q3. The recent data showed the both consumers and the business community recent downward trend, so it is unlikely that the growth will be significantly higher in the 1st quarter.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 1.1260. After fixing above the first target, the level 1.1350 will become the next one



Pound

General overview

The Bank of England surprisingly well responded to the recent volatility increase in the market, despite the potential capital flows weakening to the UK and the financial services sector potential problems.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4480 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.4560 and 1.4630 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bonds yield differential expanded. That fact, as usual, increases the investment attractiveness in the US assets and thereby supported the dollar.

The first support resides at 115.40, the next is at 114.60. The first resistance stands at 116.20, the next one is at 117.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 115.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 114.60 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market got again concerned about the global economy state when the China’s report had indicated the foreign exchange reserves reduction to the 2012 minimum. The oil dynamics did not contribute to the market optimism growing as well having shown the signs of reduction.

The Germany Industrial Production for December 2012 was worth paying our attention. The production orders increased by 1.2%. The forecast was 0.4%. The pair euro/dollar by the end of the trades increased.

The UK National Statistics Office published the trade balance report (the previous value was -10,64B; the forecast was -10,40B; in fact -9,92B). The pound strengthening against the euro is a negative factor for the country exports as it reduces the products competitiveness. According to the British Industry Confederation exporters suffer from excessively high national currency rate. The trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a growth.

Due to the lack of economic news that could be a driver for the market the traders' attention was entirely focused on the stock market dynamics. The yen was traditionally supported by the risk aversion. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone release pushed the price down - the Sentix Investor Confidence for February has fallen to 6.0 from 9.6 against the forecast which was 7.6. Still a new risk aversion wave limited the euro decline. The dollar sales were also due to the weak USA Labor Market Conditions report where the index fell to 0.4 from 2.9.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1440.




Pound

General overview

The government bonds yield significantly reduced against the US Treasuries and the Germany bonds due to the capital outflow from the British assets. This factor, in its turn, left a negative impact on the Cable. Only by the end of the trades the Sterling slightly strengthened.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the consolidation at the current levels. The downward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price grows it will break above 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The debt market 2-year US Treasury bonds yields continue their falling that also deprives support from the dollar. The oil prices drop dragged down the global stock markets, thus supporting the safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and US Treasuries.

The first support resides at 114.60, the next is at 113.80. The first resistance stands at 115.40, the next one is at 116.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 114.60 and 113.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The traders' concerns about the world economy growth slow down in general and the energy sector's fate in particular caused a new wave of stock indices selling. The threat of large slate companies bankruptcy alongside with the Deutsche Bank problems whose shares have fallen to the record lows, discouraged investors from trading with high-risk assets.

The Germany industrial production and trade balance weak data for December once again supported our assumptions that we should not count on the euro significant increase in the medium term. The industrial production volume decreased by 2.2% while it had shown growth of 0.8% in 2015. In this regard, we see a steady negative trend and it is not highly profitable to have a strong euro. The pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK published the industrial production release for December. The index came in at -1.1% m/m. The pair GBP/USD quickly left the lows, despite the weaker-than-expected manufacturing industry data. The pair GBP/USD slightly increased.

Janet Yellen speech to Congress is this week key event. Her attitude about the economy state and the monetary policy future shall determine the further prospects of the dollar which has recently weakened. The pair USD/JPY fell by the end of the trades.

According to Janet Yellen there are risks in the US economy which may slow down their plans to increase the interest rates in short-term. The economic China upheavals leave a negative impact on the US economy and the traders' inflation expectations continue declining. The Fed chairman did not talk about the possibility of a later interest rates increase, still the mentioned risks made her tone soft highlighting concerns about the Fed rate hikes this year.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The industrial production in Germany fell by 1.2% against an average forecast of 0.4. Meanwhile, the trade surplus narrowed to 18.8 billion euros from 20.5 billion euros, while exports and imports have fallen by 1.6%. The euro ignores the warning signals from Greece, whose problems may soon again be in the center of our attention.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After the level of 1.1260 breakthrough the first target is the level 1.3670.



Pound

General overview

We should pay attention to industrial production for December. The PMI positive dynamics allowed counting on the data slightly better than the consensus forecast. Manufacturing index for December came in at -0.2% m/m, -1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.1% m/m, -1.4% y/y.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4560 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4630 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The debt market dynamics indicates the dollar possible strengthening: the 10-year US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increases the investing attractiveness to the US assets. Traders followed Janet Yellen comments as her speech could easily reverse the trend, or on the contrary, strengthen it. After this speech the dollar weakened against the yen.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. When the price consolidates below the level of 113.80 it may go to the level 113.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar showed mixed trades against its major rivals. The stock markets have tried to return to a growth, still Janet Yellen's soft comments regarding possible returning to the quantitative easing program, have caused some concerns among investors. The head of the Fed talked about negative interest rates. According to her she does not know any reason the Fed might introduce the negative rates in the nearest future.

In economic news, the leading stock markets showed an upward trend which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The UK industrial production weak report indicates that it is not necessary to count on the pound significant growth. The industrial production volume decreased by 1.79% in the last year fourth quarter compared with the same year third quarter. The pair pound/dollar slightly grew after a decrease.

Yesterday the US published the Initial Jobless Claims for January at the level of 269K (the previous value was 285K; the forecast was 287K). The short positions cutting signals about investors' "risk appetite" growth that traditionally has a negative impact on the yen value as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen fell to the new minimums.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Despite the Janet Yellen's soft comments, she made it clear that the rate hike is still on the agenda, but, as before, it will depend on incoming economic data and the situation in the financial markets. A certain portion of the negative comments for the euro came from Prata, the ECB representative. According to him the regulator may use some instrument to solve problems with liquidity.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1440.



Pound

General overview

The pair ignored the weak UK statistics. The industrial output fell in January by 1.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y vs. -0.1% and + 1.0% and the previous result at the level of -0.8% and +0.7%, respectively. The NIESR GDP estimate for January was + 0.4% versus the previous result of + 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks 1.4480 up it will open the way to the resistance level of 1.4560. If the price fixates below the support 1.4400, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

It is impossible to ignore the rumors that the Bank of Japan is ready, if necessary, to enter the foreign exchange market with some interventions. This turn of events can not be excluded, as the yen has strengthened by 5.2% in February, the price dropped to its lowest level in 12 months.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 112.20 and 113.00. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60.



Franc

General overview

If the FED expects further growth in wages, the real incomes increase will not allow the core inflation to go far below the level of 2%. In this regard, the interest rate may be increased during the current year. However, nobody expects changes in the monetary policy at the next FOMC meeting on March.

The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The first decrease target is the level 0.9660, the next one is 0.9580. We do not exclude the growth to 0.9750 and further to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was under pressure last Friday, as concerns about the global economic outlook caused a fall of stock markets. The demand for the safe-haven assets: the yen and the euro, have been increased. Chinese market was closed due to the Chinese New Year celebration.

Japanese Finance Minister made it clear to investors that the rapid Japanese yen growth could lead to the regulator’s intervention. If necessary, the bank will take all the necessary measures to limit the yen’s growth. According to Aso: the exchange rate has been recently showing quite sharp fluctuations that differ from the BoJ’s financial policy.

According to Eurostat the Eurozone GDP (q/q) remained at the same level of 0.3%.

The US retail sales report for January was published on Friday. The forecast was 0.1%, the index came in at 0.2%. The Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for February (in the preliminary estimate) was expected with a growth by 92.6 from 92.0 in January. The index came in less than it was expected having shown 90.7.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Germany’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q4, in line with expectations. The index remained unchanged from the previous quarter. German GDP increased by 2.1% on an annual basis in the last quarter, which was below the expected 2.3%. The 10-year government bonds in Germany showed growth to their counterparts from the US and the UK, which increased the investment attractiveness in European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1440.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The decrease targets are remained the same, the levels of support: 1.1150 and 1.1050. The pair may grow to the resistance level of 1.1440.



Pound

General overview

The Britain Construction PMI rose + 1.5% m/m and 0.5% y/y from -0.5% m/m and -1.1% y/y. Housing building showed growth in the UK in Q4: + 4.1% q/q from 5.7% q/q in Q3. Meanwhile, the dollar remains volatile. According to Janet Yellen there was a good reason to believe that the US economy would remain on a path of a moderate growth that would allow the Fed to conduct monetary policy "gradual change".

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4630.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The break and consolidation above 1.4480 will open the way to the resistance levels of 1.4630 and 1.4700. After the drop below the support of 1.4400 we may see a decrease to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso warned investors about the Japanese yen rapid growth, saying that the government may take necessary measures if necessary to limit the yen’s growth. A number of banks have raised their forecasts that we may see an intervention by the Japanese Bank soon. The JP Morgan expects the further monetary policy liberalization after the Bank of Japan meeting on March 14-15.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level 117.50. If the price goes to the support level of 111.40 and breaks it the next target will by 110.60.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

16.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The stock markets sentiment had significantly improved which forced the risky assets to retreat after a recent rally. The oil quotations recovery coupled with the Deutsche Bank news. The bank is planning to buy back bonds for the amount of 5 billions dollars. All these factors supported the demand for the dollar.

No important news were published yesterday. We believe that the euro won't show significant growth this week. The industrial production volume in the euro area decreased by 0.31% at the end of 2015, compared with a growth of 0.47% a year earlier. The strong euro is not in the European industrialists' interests and the ECB certainly understands that. The pair euro/dollar fell on the yesterday’s trades.

The 10-year government bonds yield is increasing in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which increases the investments attractiveness in British assets. In addition, the Brent failing had its positive impact on the British currency as expected. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

Japan had published the Q4 GDP, the report did not show any surprises. The decreased household spending and the negative trade balance indicate an economic growth reduction. The 4th quarter GDP reached the level of 1.4% (y/y) vs. 1.2% (y/y) and 0.4% (q/q) vs. 0.3% (q/q). The pair dollar/yen shows a growth.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair EUR/USD fell at the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the escape from the risky assets alongside with the contradictory Eurozone statistics became the reasons for the pair’s growth. The Eurozone economy grew by 0.3% q/q in the fourth quarter, exceeding the forecast. The ECB President Mario Draghi’s performance drew traders’ attention yesterday. According to him the economic recovery is happening at a moderate pace.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD could not hold its positions amid the widespread buying of the dollar. The dollar became so popular after the strong US retail sales. The report had shown that the inflation kept accelerating in the country, as a result the Fed might review its plans about the rates rising. The lack of UK statistics made traders turn their views to the oil dynamics.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.4400 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4320 will be opened. We don’t exclude that the pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.4480. After breaking 1.4480 the buyers may go to 1.4560.



Yen

General overview

Weak Japanese GDP put pressure on the yen. The strong yen had a negative impact on the Japanese exports. That fact can make the monetary authorities take additional measures.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 114.60 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 113.80, 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar started the new trading week on a positive note. The US currency purchase supported the positive sentiment for the world stock exchange. Even China's return to the market after long holidays did not spoil that sentiment. The imports and exports volume from China decreased by 18.8% and 11.2%, respectively in January.

The banking sector shares outperformed the market in Europe. Investors' "risk appetite" was growing which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. Germany has published the ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment for February. The index showed 1.0 (the previous value was 10.2; the forecast was 3.2). The pair euro/dollar fell.

The UK published the inflation report for January. A strong labor market pointed out that CPI growth (in annual terms) could be a little better than the consensus forecast (0.4%). The unemployment rate for November decreased by 5.1%, while wages increased by 1.02%. However the CPI came in at the forecasted median 0,3%. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

The Japanese negative macroeconomic statistics keeps showing correction. GDP decreased by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The volume of industrial production has been reducing for the second year in a row and the negative trend accelerated from 1.91% to 2.49% in 2015. The sharp yen's strengthening, that we saw in the beginning of the year, carries additional risks to the Japanese economy. The pair dollar/yen is consolidating after a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The news that Bundesbank lowered its inflation growth forecast for 2016 pressured the euro. The Bundesbank lowered the forecast to + 0.25% from 1.1% amid the cheap oil. Mario Draghi made it clear in his performance that the regulator was ready to revise its policy at the next meeting. He stressed that the monetary policy would remain accommodative for an extended period. Draghi’s soft statements only increased the pressure on the euro.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published the inflation report for January: Consumer price index came in at 0.8% m/m and 0.3% y/y. Producer Price Index was published as well. The index showed -0.7% m/m and -1.0% y/y.

The oil market kept showing decrease which played into the bears’ hand.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The strong yen reduced the products competitiveness in foreign markets. The products competitiveness is what the Japanese industry needs most of all now. We believe we can still get a new batch of verbal intervention until the end of the month, which will make bears close short positions. The short positions closure shall contribute to the quotations growth.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 114.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 115.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar purchase dominated despite some weak data from the US. Investors’ sentiment changed to a negative one when the oil prices returned to a decrease, which was characterized by a high volatility, and were the main driver for global markets.

On the one hand, ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey showed a growing pessimism among financial experts. On the other hand, the Fed’s last meeting minutes were published. Traders expected to see a dovish rhetoric of the monetary authorities regarding energy prices falling and global economic growth slowing down. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased.

The British pound recovered after the employment data release. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1%, compared with the forecast for a drop to 5.0%. Claimant Count Change fell by 14.8K in January, while the Average Earnings including Bonus increased by 1.9% in December. The pair pound/dollar fell by the end of the trades.

This year we have seen high volatility in the financial markets. The last FOMC meeting minutes were published. Traders’ expected the minutes to coincide with the Janet Yellen’s comments in front the US Congress, that the labor market is showing a positive trend. However, the risk significantly increased due to low energy prices and the slowing down of the global growth. According to minutes some leaders are afraid of the US economy slowdown amid China's economic problems. The majority believes that the inflation will rise to 2% in the medium term. The Fed stressed that the date of interest rates rising would depend on the incoming economic data. The pair dollar/yen was trading in the consolidation corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Germany 10-year government bonds were moderately growing in relation to their counterparts from the United States and Germany, which increases the investment attractiveness of European assets. Earlier, Mario Draghi reiterated the regulator’s readiness to continue the soft monetary policy in March.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The consolidation will be continued. The upward bounce potential target are 1.1150. If the price falls it will get to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell after the weak inflation publication in the UK. The base CPI rose by only 1.2% y/y. Meanwhile, the overall inflation rate decreased by 0.8% m/m from the previous of 0.1%. These figures show that the Bank of England will definitely not soon take measures against the price pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4320 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4400 will be opened after this breakthrough. The sellers need to break below 1.4240 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.4160 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The US economy again showed unfavorable signals. Contrary to traders’ expectations, Housing Market Index fell from 60 to 58, and Empire State Manufacturing Index showed -16.64 against the forecast of -10.00. The Building Permits report for January was published. The forecast was 1.204M, the index showed 1.202M. Producer Price Index showed 0,1% versus the forecast of -0,2%.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 114.60 and 115.40. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 113.80 and 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The major pairs remained volatile without excessive nervousness. The FOMC’s minutes did not spring any surprise. The minutes’ tone was restrained with a pessimistic tone. The regulator pointed at the growing risks concerning the economy, having stressed that the current information was insufficient for a full risk assessment. The US published Initial Jobless Claims for February on the level of 262K (the previous value was 269K; the forecast was 275K).

We noticed some capital flow into "risky assets" this week, which was a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. In the credit markets, the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the USA and the UK) which reduced the investments attractiveness in European assets. The pair euro/dollar decreased.

Britain failed to deliver strong data to the investors from about the labor market. Unemployment and average earnings indicators for December remained at the previous levels. The unemployment level of differential rates in Great Britain and the United States remained the same. The pair pound/dollar fell after a growth.

The appetite for risk kept growing in financial markets which put pressure on the Japanese yen as a funding currency. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen slightly fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The two-day EU summit started on Thursday. We expect to hear some comments regarding the state of the regional economy that can impact the euro dynamics. Besides Eurozone Current Account report some strong USA reports pressured the pair. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy sharply rose by 0.4% in January against the expected growth of 0.1%.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound

General overview

We received moderately negative reports on two major macroeconomic indicators this week (inflation and unemployment), which calls into question the further British currency strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.4400. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4240



Yen

General overview

The USD/JPY resumed its decline. Oil Industry Ministers meeting results disappointed the market and provoked "black gold" prices sharp decline. It traditionally supported the yen as a safe-haven.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The dollar was under pressure after the Fed's soft comments and after the trade balance positive report in Switzerland.

The frank grew after it became known that Switzerland's trade surplus was higher than it had been forecasted, supporting the pair after four days decrease. The trade surplus amounted to 3.51 billion. for January. However by the end of the trades the pair strengthened.

The first support resides at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

Despite positive stock markets sentiment and good USA labor market data the dollar failed to grow. Investors were also pleased with the lack of negative reports from China, where the inflation reached the forecasted level. The Fed's meeting minutes released on Wednesday impacted the dollar as well. The regulator's soft tone was interpreted by traders as another retreat from December's plans.

The ECB minutes pointed that the inflation would remain at low levels. Mario Draghi said the ECB was ready to implement additional monetary policy easing at the next meeting on March 10th. We again got the divergent expectations of a policies change of the two central banks. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

The UK published retail sales release for January at the level of 2,3%m/m and 5,2%y/y against the forecasted 0,8%m/m and 3,6%y/y. The positive trend in the labor market allows us to expect retail sales growth compared with the previous month. An increase of wages was recorded in the UK during the period from November to December last year. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth by the end of the trades.

The OECD lowered its growth forecast for Japanese GDP to 0.8% from 1.0% in 2016. The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar by 5.1% since the beginning of this year. That fact reduced the national products competitiveness in foreign markets. The trade deficit in Japan amounted to 645.9 billion in January, which is 5 times more than in the last quarter of 2015. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Neither the risk sentiment nor the ECB’s meeting minutes did not contribute to the EUR/USD recovery. The regulator in his statement pointed to the downside economic risks increase in comparison with the December’s assessment and again expressed its willingness to use all available instruments if the situation requires. In general, the regulator did not tell anything new. However, the ECB’s signals regarding the further situation worsening in the region could not leave indifferent the euro that started to grow.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1150, the next one is 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

Expectations that the UK and Europe will reach the consensus regarding reforms that could leave the UK in the Eurozone supported the pound. According to the European Commission President Juncker they have chances to reach the agreement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the level of 1.4400 we expect the growth to 1.4480. After the support level of 1.4320 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4240 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

According to Mr. Kuroda the regulator is ready to reduce the negative interest rates and to increase the quantitative easing program to achieve the inflation target of 2%, if it is necessary. Thus, the Japanese financial authorities continued its verbal intervention in respect of its national currency, which is expensive for a sustainable economic growth.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The US published a consumer price index for January at the level of 0,3% m/m (the previous value was 0,2% m/m; the forecast was 0,2% m/m). The consumer price index excluding food and energy prices for January showed 2,2% y/y (the previous value was 2,1% y/y; the forecast was 2,1% y/y).

The first support resides at 0.9859, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows movement a horizontal and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US consumer price index for January rose by 1.4% year over year, beating our expectations about a growth by 1.3%. The core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.2%, also more than expected.

There was a decrease for demand on euro because the composite PMI fell down. The composite PMI is the combination of the manufacturing and services sectors activities, it reached a 13-month low of 53.0 in February from January's value of 53,6. Economists expected 53.3.

British Prime Minister David Cameron said that he had agreed with the European Union on the exceptional conditions of membership within the union. Still, according to his campaign promises, he would held a referendum where the country would decide to stay or not within the EU.

According to the preliminary estimates, the Japanese manufacturing sector index activity for February came in at 50.2, while experts expected it to fall from 52.3 to 52.0 last month.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

EU data chained many investors’ attention. We expect that with its help we will predict future market direction. If the data comes in better than expected, the demand for the single European currency is likely to resume. Still there are risks that the data will be in the dollar’s favor.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued. The first target is the level 1.0925, the next one is 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The British referendum to stay within the EU or to leave it was the key topic yesterday. The referendum is scheduled for June 23, 2016. We noticed that the more this topic is discussed, the more is noticeable differences of opinion in British society.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair breaks the support of 1.4080 we expect a decrease to 1.4000. After the resistance level of 1.4240 breakthrough the way to the level of 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

Last Friday yen continued strengthening against the dollar, despite the BoJ head’s comments that the Japanese economy could revive due to the negative rates. Mr. Abe’s statements supported the yen as well. He talked about the importance of increasing the fees to increase expenses. Mr. Abe stressed that the regulator did not have any intention to postpone the increase in sales tax once again.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 113.00 breakthrough down the way to the support 112.20 will be opened.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar started the week with strengthening against its rivals. The US currency and the stock assets grew together amid oil prices rising. The dollar was slowed down a bit by Markit Manufacturing PMI for February that had fallen to its lowest level of 51.0 since October 2012. The previous value was 52.4 and the forecast was 52.3.

The German's GDP in the 4th quarter increased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter, which corresponds to the growth rate in the 3rd quarter. This figure confirmed the preliminary assessment. Thus, the GDP growth rate amounted to 1.1% in annual terms. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly strengthened.

The GBPUSD fell and the reason of its fall was the potential Brexit. The aggressive pound selling was Mayor of London Boris Johnson's statements, where he supported the British exit from the EU. The Prime Minister David Cameron confirmed the holding of a referendum on 23rd of June this year. In light of these developments Citibank raised its estimate of the Brexit probability up to 30-40% from 20-30% previously. The pair GBP/USD sharply fell to the new minimums.

The Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Tuesday that he saw no direct connection between the monetary base increase and the inflation expectations. Still we believe that Kuroda overestimated the impact of monetary policy major changes on public opinion. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

German’s Business Climate for February has worsened for the third month in a row. The index fell to 105.7 from 107.3 in January, reaching the lowest level since December 2014. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 106.7. Expectations index for February dropped to 98.8, that was the lowest level since December 2012. The index fell from a revised downward value of 102.3 for January.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell to a six-year low against the dollar on Monday as concerns over a possible exit of Britain from the European Union (EU), known as "Brexit" were still strong. Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, performed on Tuesday. He noted that the current account balance was kept in a high deficit. At the same time, domestic demand remained positive. Mark Carney stressed that the regulator might lower the rate or increase the volume of asset purchases.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.3920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4160.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing

Trading recommendations

We do not exclude the downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4000 and 1.3920.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened against other major currencies on Tuesday. The yen became popular when oil prices fell again and caused the shares decline. The USA published Existing Home Sales (0,8% against the forecasted 0,9%), Existing Home Sales Change (5,47M against the forecasted 5,32M) and Consumer Confidence (92,2 against the forecasted 97,0) reports.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 113.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 113.80 will be opened after this breakthrough. The sellers need to break below 111.40 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

Tuesday was marked by the dollar strengthening against all European currencies. The dollar grew despite the sentiment drop of global investors. The USA published Markit Services PMI (49,8 against the forecasted 53,5), Markit PMI Composite (50.1 against the previous 53.2) and New Home Sales (494K against the forecasted 520K) reports.

The Eurozone did not publish important news, and therefore traders' attention was entirely directed to the stock indices. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened by the end of the trades.

The UK released BBA Mortgage Approvals (47,5K against the forecasted 45,5K) and CBI Distributive Trades Survey for February. (10 against the forecasted 12) In addition, the pound depends on news about Brexit now. The survey results before the referendum may lead to increase volatility of GBP/USD. The pair pound/dollar continued the downward movement.

The Bank of Japan governor statements supported the yen. According to Kuroda the accelerating pump of money into the economy will not increase expectations of future price increase. The current monetary policy has limits and it can revive the economic growth just to some extant. The market became more caution after China's decision to set a lower rate for the yuan, although most traders expected it to remain unchanged during the finance ministers and central bank governors meeting ("Big Twenty") this week. The pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro has weakened this week amid concerns that Brexit may impact the Eurozone.

According to the ECB representative Mr. Weidmann, the long uncertainty about that topic might affect the global economy. He also said that ignoring the effects of soft monetary policy might become a problem. Weidmann stressed that the economic outlook was not as bad as it seemed. He noted that a low inflation was a problem for the monetary policy and the gradual Eurozone recovery should be continued this year and the next one.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK published CBI Distributive Trades Survey on Wednesday (10 against the forecasted 12). The report came in at 10 with the forecast of 12. Traders will focus their attention on the UK GDP data on Thursday. Traders expect that the second GDP estimate for the 4th quarter will remain at 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y. Weak GDP figures may trigger pound selling.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.4000, 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.3920 and 1.3840.



Yen

General overview

This month the yen has risen relative to all major currencies amid stock and commodity markets falling that increased demand for the "safe haven" currencies.

High demand for the yen in anticipation of the end of the month, as well as expectations that the Japanese Central Bank will not conduct any intervention before the G20 meeting, scheduled for the end of this week, could further strengthen the Japanese currency.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 112.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, 🅱[color=#0000FF]Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The weak US data gave the euro strength by pushing the dollar down. According to the preliminary data, Markit Services PMI for February reached the level of 49.8 against the forecast of 53.5 and the previous value of 53.2. Meanwhile, the primary housing market sales fell by 9.2% against the expected slow decline to -4.4%. The United States published Initial Jobless Claims (272000 against the forecasted 270000), Housing Prices (0,4% m/m against the forecasted 0,5% m/m), Orders for durable goods (1,8% m/m against the forecasted 0,2% m/m) reports.

The demand decreased on euro amid: oil prices falling, fears of China's banking system corruption, as well as talking about Brexit. In the same time, British possible exit from the EU sent the pound to multi-year lows, pressing the euro as well. Traders did not use the euro as a safe haven due to speculation about the potential breaking of the European Union after the UK leaving the alliance. Only by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the possible UK exit from the EU. The market was volatile in anticipation of the UK GDP data for Q4. Traders expected a growth by 0.5%. In fact, the second GDP estimate came in at 0.5% q/q and + 1.9% y/y. The pair pound/dollar is consolidating.

The yen strengthened again in a new wave of risky assets sales this week. However the dollar showed a growth against the yen on Tuesday’s trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro got under new wave of sales after Weidmann's statements. According to the ECB representative the inflation may not reach the target level of 1% in 2016 due to the increased downside risks. Consumer Price Index for the last month remained unchanged. According to the report, prepared by Eurostat, the rate (seasonally corrected) was 1.0% compared with 1.0% in the previous month, that was in the line with expectations.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.3670 will be opened after this breakthrough. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The negative dynamics of the British currency happened due to several reasons, among them were risk aversion from possible Bank of England's policy softening, as well as concerns over the upcoming referendum (23rd June), where the country would decide the fate of Great Britain in the EU. The UK published Index of Services for December. The Index came in at the forecasted level of 0,7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.3920 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.3840 will be opened. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4000, 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to develop an upward correction after Kuroda's statements. The Bank Governor hinted that they might expand the QQE program. Japan relies on exports, so it needs a weak Yen to survive.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates above the resistance 113.00, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 113.80.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened its position against the US dollar after another batch of weak economic data. Stock indices fall and the increased demand for safe-haven assets played they role as well. Switzerland published Industrial Production for Q4, the indicator came in at -7.7% y/y, the previous value was -6.7% y/y in Q3.

The first support resides at 0.9850, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.02.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US GDP for the fourth quarter was the key event last Friday (1,0% against the forecasted 0,4%). Earlier, the dollar lost ground, despite the durable goods orders positive release. The index jumped by 1.8% after falling by 1.2% in December.

Last Friday the G20 summit started its work in Shanghai. The problems with China, monetary policies coordination as well as world economy stimulation will be discussed in the meeting.

In economic news, German Finance Minister Schaeuble said in his speech that the space for monetary policy seems to be exhausted. According to him it was necessary to continue applying the financial regulation and to make the market less volatile. He also supported the idea to continue structural reforms. The pair euro/dollar sharply fell.

The main drivers for the pair GBP/USD were: Brexit and the British regulator's current monetary position. The pound reached seven-year lows last week. The currency weakening happened after some new forecasts, according to which the British currency might fall if the British citizens would vote for the country's exit from the EU in June. According to the opinion polls 43% of the population insisted on the necessity of such a decision. After a slight growth the pair pound/dollar decreased to new minimums on Friday.

The Bank of Japan continues to deny its plan to lower the current exchange rate. The BOJ governor Kuroda said that they did not plan to soften the monetary policy to weaken the yen. According to Mr. Kiuchi from the Board of Directors: an intervention will be an option if the market becomes volatile. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Euro ignored Eurozone inflation release. The inflation slowed down to + 0.4% from + 0.3%. Base CPI showed a drop of 1.7% versus + 0.3% of the previous month. The received data increased the chances that the European Central Bank would introduce additional measures to stimulate the economy at its next meeting in March. That might cause the euro decrease.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0800 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The UK GDP report coincided with the forecasts and provoked the pound weakening. The economy grew by 1.9% and 0.5% in the fourth quarter. The volume of business investment fell by 2.1% after a growth of 1.2% previously.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3840, the next one is at 1.3760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.4000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.3840, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.3760.



Yen

General overview

The Japanese yen fell against the dollar when it became known that the inflation growth in Japan slowed down in January. The slow inflation points to the obvious regulator's problems as it could not return the inflation to the target level of 2%. Also the positive USA GBP report (1,0% against the forecasted 0,4%) became the growth driver.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 114.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 115.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

Dollar strengthened its position despite the fact that the US Initial Jobless Claims showed 272k against the previous value of 270k.

The Fed Representative Williams said the US economy required a soft push forward. He proffered not to hurry with the rates raising, believing that normalization is a gradual process.

The first support resides at 0.9960, the next is at 0.9850. The first resistance stands at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 1.0100. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0190.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The NFP is the most anticipated event of this week. This is the final report, which may force the Federal Reserve to change its mind about the rate hike in March. We will receive ADP report on Wednesday, NFP will be released on Friday.

The euro remained under pressure as the low inflation reminded investors that the ECB was likely to tighten its policy in March. Concerning consumer prices: Germany showed a growth for February and accelerated to 0.4% after falling to 0.8% in January, while other Eurozone countries showed a deflation. The Eurozone presented consumer price index for February. The index showed -0.2% y/y, the forecast was 0.1% y/y. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

Brexit theme did not lose its effect on the global financial markets. George Osborne's (the Finance Minister of Great Britain) statement gave a new impulse to panic. Osborne said that the British currency might fall and declared that the country might face serious economic problems if it left the EU. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The yen became popular after Japan's industrial production report for January publication. The index rose in comparison to the previous month. Industrial production growth was 3.7%, while economists forecasted an increase by only 3.3%. The pair dollar/yen fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro got under pressure due to strong USA reports and disappointing macro data from the euro zone. The consumer confidence level came in at -8.8, we expected -6.7, economic sentiment index reached 103.8 vs. the previous value of 106.7, and service sector indicator fell to 10.6 from 11.5. Such disappointing figures may become another argument in favor of an additional ECB stimulus policy in March that may lead the further euro losses.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.0800, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.0680.



Pound

General overview

Pound rebounded upwards from the minimums. The pound was under pressure due to Brexit threat that became a very real and US data that had shown an unexpected rise. The GDP for the 4th quarter was revised upwards to 1.0% (annualized), while the market expected it to decrease from 0.7% to 0.4%. PCE deflator index rose to 1.7% y/y, above expectations and a revised data of 1.5%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3840, the next one is at 1.3760. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.4000.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement potential target is 1.3840. If the price grows above the level of 1.3920 it will get to 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Demand for the yen was resumed when industrial production in Japan for January rose compared with the previous month rate. Industrial production growth was 3.7%, while economists forecasted an increase by only 3.3%. Meanwhile, the US published Pending Home Sales. The index came in at - 2.5% versus expected 0.5%.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 112.20 and 111.40. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 113.00 and 113.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

02.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The US published Manufacturing PMI for February, the index came in at 49.5 when the forecast was 48.5.

The escape from "risky" assets had a positive impact on the euro as a funding currency. Previously, the euro came under wave of sales when consumer prices report came in negative. The inflation index amounted 0.2% against the expected 0.0%. Base CPI noticeably slowed down as well to + 0.7% from + 1.0%. The CPI results significantly increased the chances that ECB would launch more aggressive easing policy in March. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

We would pay attention for UK manufacturing sector PMI from Markit. Leading indicators pointed to negative data outcome. Industrial orders balance, according to the CBI, had been declining for ten consecutive months - the index recorded a maximum of the last three months in February. The PMI came in at the level of 50,8 against the forecasted 52,2. However the pair GBP/USD slightly strengthened.

Japan shall publish household spending for January, which had supported the US currency. The index came in at -3.1% y/y vs. the previous -4.4% y/y and the forecast of -2.5% y/y. The pair USD/JPY sharply grew.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair failed to take advantage of the widespread dollar weakening amid the weak USA data. Pending Home Sales unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in two years (2.5% vs. the forecast of + 0.5%). The European Union released Manufacturing PMI from Markit in Germany for February. The forecast was 50.2, the index came in at 50.5. Unemployment Change release in Germany coincided with the forecast. The index showed -10K.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0800 and 1.0680.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom published the manufacturing PMI for February: 50,8 (the forecast was 52.3). The previous statistics from the UK was quite positive: Mortgage Approvals exceeded the forecasts, having reached 74,581 against the previous 71,335. Meanwhile, Consumer Credit for January amounted £ 1.564 billion against the expected 1,300 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3920, the next one is at 1.3840. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.4080.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential targets are 1.4000 and 1.4050. If the price falls it will get to 1.3920 and 1.3840.



Yen

General overview

The pair dollar/yen sharply grew. Earlier Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index decline caused a slight USD/JPY's drop. We believe that the dollar won't significantly affect the market before ADP release, but even then traders may want to wait for Services PMI from Markit before formulating their expectations about NFP.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 114.60 and 115.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

03.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States published ADP report for February on the level of 214000 (the previous value was reviewed from 205K to 193K; the forecast was 190K).

There was a growth of quotations cuased by: manufacturing PMI moderate positive data from Markit as well as, the unemployment rate decrease to 10.3% in the eurozone. The unemployment in Eurozone reached its lowest level since September 2011, still it was too far to the pre-crisis levels in 2008. In the debt market: Germany10-year government bond yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK), which reduced the attractiveness of European assets. However it was a short-term growth and the pair EUR/USD fell by the end of the trades.

We should pay attention to construction PMI in the UK that came in at the level of 54,2 that is worse then forecasted 55,5. GDP in this sector showed a reduction in the second half of 2015, after a prolonged rapid growth. The possibility of Great Britain to exit the EU is also a negative factor for the construction sector. If the UK leaves the union, then London real estate market may show stagnation. Nevertheless the pair GBP/USD sharply increased.

The USD/JPY showed some growth due to few factors. The negative release of Japan's household spending, that put "bears" in an awkward position. In addition to private consumption as the basis of the Japanese GDP, and finally "risk appetite" growth which was also a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. Only by the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Euro could not strengthen its position after the positive Eurozone macro reports. Eurozone unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since August 2011 (10.3%) compared to the forecast and the previous value of 10.4%. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI from Markit rose to 51.2 from 51.0. Apparently, the market finally decided what to expect from the upcoming ECB meeting after consumer price deflation zone release and the euro remained indifferent to fresh figures.

The first support lies at 1.0800 and then at 1.0680. The first resistance stands at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.0800 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0680 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

Britain published construction sector PMI: 54,2 that is lower then the forecasted 55,5. The pound did not receive support from the black gold market positive dynamics. The financial markets showed a steady demand for "risk assets", which allowed the British currency to finish the day in the "green zone".

The price is finding the first support at 1.4000, the next one is at 1.3920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4160.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4080 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4160 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

By the end of the trades the pair USD/JPY fell after a growth. The market has not decided yet what to do with the Bank of China's decision to reduce reserve requirements for banks. The yen was the main outsider having lost all points scored against the dollar.

The yen came under influence of the USA ADP report on Wednesday. The data came in at the level of 214K against the forecasted 189K.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 113.80, 114.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The United States published Initial Jobless Claims (278000 against the forecasted 271000) and Non-Manufacturing PMI for February (the data came in at the level of 53.4 the previous value was 53.5, the forecast was 53.2). Today traders' attention will be focused on NFP.

The differential yields on US and German government bonds reduced, which increased the investment attractiveness in European assets. This in return would support the demand for euro. On the other hand, the risk "assets" are still in demand in the financial markets, which is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth.

The UK published Services PMI from Markit for February. The release came in at the level of 52.7, the previous value was 55.6, the forecast was 55.1. Firstly, the GDP grew by 0.65%, with an overall economic growth of 0.5% in the services sector in the fourth quarter of 2015. Secondly, the labor market positive dynamics shall increase optimism among purchasing managers in this sector. The pair pond/dollar increased.

The published APD report justified our positive expectations. The final figure was 214 000, that is the first positive sign for Friday's data on the Non-Farm. Japan upset investors with its latest releases having published weak personal consumption report. The yields differential on US and Japanese government bonds has been expanding the last four trading days in a row, which supported the demand for the dollar. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened on the Thursday’s trades. Earlier the euro was under pressure after weak manufacturing and inflation data in the Eurozone. The latest releases raised expectations that ECB would launch additional easing measures at the upcoming meeting.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD received support amid the growing interest to the risky assets and the EURGBP fall.

The 10-year UK government bonds yield increased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany), which increased the investments attractiveness in British assets.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first targets are the levels of 1.4240 and 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The dollar was supported by ADP employment report. The report showed a growth by 214,000 last month, surpassing the expectations for an increase by 190,000. Today we will receive the NFP which will become the main driver for the market.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 113.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. The dollar leveled its achievements when the Fed’s "Beige Book" showed that the economic activity continued to expand in most districts: growth rates significantly vary from weak to strong, and the labor market conditions continue to improve.

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market sentiment worsened after the weak US data publication. The dollar lost ground against the European currency. Initial Jobless Claims in the USA rose to 278 000 from 272 000, labor costs sharply fell to 3.3% against the expected growth of 4.7%. The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release. The data came more than expected 190 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 242 thousand.

Some economists believe that the strong employment data in the private sector will make it possible for the Fed's to increase the rate at its meeting on March 16th. The USA published another important release: unemployment rate for February (the previous value was 4.9%, the forecast was 4.9%). The data came in at the forecasted median. The pair EUR/USD strengthened by the end of the trades.

The pound was trying to grow still the negative fundamental background showed that we should expect a new downtrend in the near future. All three UK Markit’s reports from published this week disappointed investors with their weak data. In addition service PMI for February dropped to its lowest level since March 2013 to 52.7 vs. 55.1. The pair GBP/USD increased.

The USA published the foreign trade balance for January (the previous value was 43.36B; the forecast was -43.5B). The pair USD/JPY is trading in a side corridor.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The positive reports from the euro zone supported the euro. Service PMI rose to 53.3 from 53.0, while retail sales increased by 2.0% y/y, when analysts expected a slowdown in growth by 1.3% from 2.1% in January. We believe that the weak US data were a driver of the pair’s growth.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.0925 and 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The pair got under pressure after the latest UK releases: service PMI for February fell to 52.7 from 55.6 against the forecast of 55.1. This is the minimum value in nearly three years and is another sign that the UK economy is not in great shape. If this tendency is continued the Bank of England may indeed have to think about the economy stimulation. However, the pound negative reaction was short-lived due to the unstable dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4240 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4320 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that the negative interest rates policy was not intended to affect the Forex market. The demand for the safe haven yen weakened as oil prices recovered on Friday and remained over $34, as concerns over global oversupply seemed to have waned.

The first support resides at 113.80, the next is at 113.00. The first resistance stands at 114.60, the next one is at 115.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 114.60 and 115.40.



Franc

General overview

The growth of the Swiss economy in Q4 exceeded forecasts due to internal costs. Consequently, the country managed to overcome the consequences of export volume decrease as a result of the franc increased. Swiss GDP grew by 0.4% after a decline of 0.1% in the third quarter. This result was the highest for the year, and exceeded economists’ forecasts who had expected an increase of 0.2%.

The first support lies at 0.9850 and then at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9960, the next one is at 1.0100.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9960. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Market attention last week was directed to the long-awaited report on the US labor market, that had shown a positive increase. However despite such a strong result, the dollar weakened against the European currencies, showing a short-term positive reaction. This was because the market paid considerable attention to hourly earnings index which were very disappointing. After January growth of 0.5% the indicator went to the negative territory, reaching -0.2% vs. expected + 0.2%. In spite of the still favorable labor market conditions, the inflation at the consumer level can not let the Federal Reserve tighten the monetary policy in the foreseeable future.

In economic news, Germany published factory orders (-0,1% against the forecasted -0,3%) and Eurozone revealed Sentix investor confidence (5,5 against the forecasted 8,0). The ECB meeting is the key event of this week. We expect the ECB to expand its stimulus to support the economy of the region. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD strengthened.

Despite the "black gold" growth the British currency growth slowed down anyway. The slow down may be a signal for investors to begin taking profit on long positions. The pair GBP/USD showed a strong growth by the end of the trades on Monday.

The pair USD/JPY continues the trades in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The dollar failed to develop a bullish impulse. When the market drew attention to the labor market report traders stopped buying the dollar and began selling it. The euro got some support from conversations about the deposit rate decrease and the two-tier commission introduction.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The service sector PMI in the USA and the UK is hard to ignore: PMI differential for February shifted in favor of the United States. On the other hand, the same differential was in favor of the United Kingdom a month earlier. The service sector was not chosen by chance - this sector is the basis of the GDP for both economies.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4320, the next one is 1.4400



Yen

General overview

The pair remained in the range despite the increased volatility in the market amid the controversial US labor market report. BOJ’s governor said that the strong yen was not the main reason for the core inflation weakness. The governor added that the negative interest rates were not planned to influence the currency market.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 113.80. If the price falls it will get to 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

09.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yen showed a growth against the dollar and the euro when the weak Chinese data revived fears about Chinese economy slowdown. This data caused demand stimulation for refuge currencies. The official data showed that the volume of Chinese exports fell on an annual basis in February by 25.4% to 126.1 million against the forecasted decline by 12.5%. The volume of imports fell by 13.8% year over year, slowing from 18.8% in January. On Tuesday, the Japanese data showed that the GDP had fallen by 1.1% in the last quarter of 2015, being revised from 1.4%.
The head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney spoke about the financial costs and benefits of Great Britain membership in the EU. The UK released the 2nd estimate of Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter. This indicator (seasonally corrected) was 0.3% compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter. Experts had expected a growth rate for the last quarter by 0.3%. We expected the French trade balance with a slight improvement. The euro remained under pressure amid high expectations that the ECB will launch additional monetary policy easing.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

This week ECB meeting is the key event. The regulator is expected to increase the negative rate and will announce additional measures to stimulate the economy. Industrial production in Germany for January supported the euro. The index came in better than it was expected. The index rose by 3.3% against the expected 0.5% after falling 0.3% in December. This is the most significant growth rate since November, 2014.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The euro reached the target of 1.1050. If the pair stays above the level the growth will be continued to 1.1150. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD strengthened amid a weakening of the dollar. We believe that the Bank of England may still raise the rate in Q4. Meanwhile, the US dollar came under pressure as expectations of an early interest rates increase weakened when the market got another portion of the weak statistics from China.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to long with the target of 1.4320. The second growth target is the level of 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

Though Japan published a moderate positive macroeconomic data the traders' sentiment was marred by the Chinese statistics. Japan's GDP for the 4th quarter was revised from -0.4% to -0.3% in the final assessment. There was -1.1% versus the previous -1.4% in the annual assessment. Capital expenditures in GDP increased from 1.4% to 1.5%. Consumer spending showed weak results, the index showed a decline by 0.9% against the forecast of -0.8%.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We remain bullish on the pair. Our first target is 112.20. Our second target is the level of 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

10.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

This week is poor with news. There is one important exception: the ECB meeting on Thursday, March 10. The ECB President Draghi has repeatedly made it clear that the ECB is ready to support the economic growth of the Eurozone by their actions. The euro was effected by expectations that the European Central Bank was likely to soften the monetary policy again this week. The ECB is expected to cut the rates further into negative territory on Thursday.

Manufacturing Production in the UK increased in January by 0.7%, vs the expectations of 0.2%, as well as the decline in the month before by 0.3%. In annual terms, Manufacturing Production fell by 0.1%, although we expected a decrease by 0.7%. Pound remained under pressure amid uncertainty about the Brexit results.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

We expect that the ECB to cut the rates further into the negative territory. In addition, investors predict that the Bank will expand its asset purchase program in an effort to overcome consistently low inflation levels in the Euro area. Meanwhile, the German's government bonds showed growth relative to their counterparts (the US and the UK) that will support the demand for the euro.

The first support lies at 1.0925 and then at 1.0800. The first resistance stands at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The euro reached the target of 1.1050 and bounced downwards. If the pair break the level again the growth will be continued to 1.1150. Otherwise we will see a decrease to 1.0800.



Pound

General overview

According to the National Statistics Office Industrial Production for February grew for the first time in three months. The index showed growth by 0.3% on a monthly basis after a decline by 1.1% in December. The increase was the first in three months and the most significant in five months. However, economists had expected a growth rate of 0.4%. Meanwhile, Manufacturing Production increased by 0.7%, the forecast was 0.2%.
The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to long with the target of 1.4320. The second growth target is the level of 1.4400. If the pair does not break the resistance of 1.4240 in may bounce downwards to 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Weak Chinese economic data caused the outflow of capital from the "risky assets", which is a positive factor for the yen. The debt market showed a growing optimism in regard to the Japanese assets: the yield differential of US and Japanese government bonds reduced which may support the demand for the yen.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the pair. Our first target is 112.20. Our second target is the level of 111.40. The pair will strive to reach the level 114.60 if it grows.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The single European currency was in the spotlight on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) had to step up its measures to support the economy in a low inflation environment. The Bank's decision regarding monetary policy, and Mario Draghi's press conference were the main news of the day.

The ECB decided to mitigate the monetary policy, still the regulator made it clear that the new rate cuts probably would not happen. The ECB cut its deposit rate by 10 basis points as it was expected.

Germany published Trade Balance which came in at 18,9B compared to 20,3B the previous month. These data was revised upwards to 18,8B. Experts expected a growth rate for the last month to 19,6B.

According to the British macroeconomic statistics the Bank of England is not inclined to raise the interest rates. It is worth mentioning that the UK shall hold a referendum on the UK exit from the EU in a few months. It also put pressure on the British pound. The recent growth is considered as a correction from a seven-year low.

As for the Japanese currency, it came under pressure amid risks rising when China's Consumer Price Index came in better than expected. Meanwhile, the US has published Initial Jobless Claims. Economists had expected a decline from 277K to 275K. The index showed 259K.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting on monetary policy was the main event yesterday. The deflation threat again stands over the Eurozone economy. The euro area showed a CPI decline by 0.2% in annual terms at the end of February. The regulator decreased the rate that may support the pair in a short-term.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a bounce downwards to the level 1.1050 after which the pair shall return to the north direction. The growth targets are 1.1260 and 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

Housing Price Balance rose less than expected last month. The index showed 50% compared with 48% in the previous month. These data were revised downward to 49%. Experts had expected a growth rate to 51% for the last month. According to the British Prime Minister David Cameron the country's exit from the European Union would put pressure on the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The growth was continued. The main short-term target is the level of 1.4400. Shall the price consolidate over that level the growth shall be continued to 1.4560 – 1.4600.



Yen

General overview

Minister of Finance, Taro Aso is afraid that the Japanese economy may slip back into a deflation. Taro Aso said that the sales tax raising was the inevitable path for the Japanese economy. According to him the government is already preparing for this step. Meanwhile, the United States published Initial Jobless Claims where the data came in worse than it was expected. We expected a decline to 275K, still the index showed a decline to 259K.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

Though the pair made a strong bearish candle yesterday still its future direction had not been set. If the pair breaks and consolidates below 111.40 the pair may go deep further. As an alternative scenario the pair breaks the level of 114.60 and keeps growing further.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The ECB announced a mitigation program: the deposit rate was reduced from -0.3% to -0.4%, the base rate of 0.05% was lowered to zero (0.00%), the program redemption of assets increased from 60 billion to 80 billion per month. Now any investment-grade bonds, including corporate ones will be redeemed. The ECB adopted a new four-year program targeted to concessional loans (TLTRO) at zero percent.

Consumer prices in Germany remained unchanged in February compared with a year ago rate. The consumer price index remained unchanged after rising by 0.5 percent in January and by 0.3 percent in December. Consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent on a monthly basis. The index partly reversed the 0.8 percent decline in January. It was the highest inflation rate since March 2015.

Trade balance in the UK for the last month increased, contrary to out expectations. The index showed -10,29B compared to -10,45B in the previous month. These data were revised downward to -9,92B. Experts expected the index to decline over the past month to -10,30B.

The USA published Export Price Index for February. The index was expected to fall by 0.7% m / m. The index showed -6.0%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB delivered its verdict and the monetary authorities' decision surprised the market. The discount rate was reduced to 0%, the QE program was immediately increased to 20 billion. The ECB significantly lowered the inflation forecast for this year from 1% to 0.1%. The GDP estimates for the period of 2016-2018 were also revised. Monetary authorities noted inflationary pressure contraction, however, they rejected the possible threat of deflation.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the pair is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We support the growth idea. The first target is the level of 1.1260. Breaking of 1.1260 shall open the way to 1.1350. We still do not exclude the correction to 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

According to the UK National Statistics Office the country's trade deficit (seasonally corrected) narrowed up to £10.29 billion from £ 10,45 billion in December. The data for the previous month was revised upwards to £9.92 billion. Economists had forecasted that the trade deficit in January amounted £ 10,3 billion.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

Our first target – 1.4400 is about to be reached. Shall the pair break it and consolidates above it the northern movement shall be continued to 1.4560. We do not exclude the correction to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Reduced Large Manufacturing index had a negative impact on the yen. The index fell to -7.9% from the previous value of 3.8% (in the first quarter). Analysts had expected the index to rise to 4.2%. According to the Ministry of Finance the major Japanese manufacturers' sentiment sharply worsened in January-March when the economy had lost an impulse in the beginning of the year.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

While the pair is in the Ichimoku cloud its future direction is not determined. If the pair breaks and consolidates below 111.40 the pair may go deep further. As an alternative scenario the pair breaks the level of 114.60 and keeps growing further.



Franc

General overview

No important macroeconomic statistics was published last Friday. The course of trading was determined by the world's leading stock exchanges. Meanwhile, the US dollar found a support when the US Labor Department published Initial Jobless Claims. The index fell by 18,000 to 259,000 from 277,000 in the previous week. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2,000 to 275,000.

The first support resides at 0.9800, the next is at 0.9750. The first resistance stands at 0.9880, the next one is at 0.9960.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to short. The first sell target is the level of 0.9800. Having broken this level the pair shall go deeper to 0.9750.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Central Banks will be the focus of our attention this week. The BOJ, the Fed and the Bank of England shall announce their verdict. Even though we do not expect surprises, the banks' statements can still cause volatility. The Fed's possible statements will be the main driver in the beginning of the week.

Last week, the ECB President M. Draghi's statement about the absence of need for new measures provoked risk aversion and had pressured the dollar. However, traders managed to focus on new large-scale ECB’s incentives which increased the demand for the dollar at the end of the trading week. The rates will remain at the current or lower levels until the target inflation level is reached, according to Liikanen's words (ECB representative), which added some optimism. That brought the market some calmness, as well as giving the investors the hope that the European regulator had further plans. The pair euro/dollar fell by the end of the trades on Monday.

The UK total trade deficit narrowed to £ -3.459 billion, even this favorable data made no impression on the GBP/USD, and did not help the price to grow. Still if the dollar came under a wave of selling, the pound strengthened. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closeв with a decrease on Monday.

The pair USD/JPY continues the trades in a flat.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro got under pressure amid growing interest to the risky assets. At the same time the USA statistics had no impact on the pair’s dynamics. Import Prices into the United States for February had been showing the 18th month falling in a row. This time the index decreased by 0.3% vs. the forecast of -0.5%. Despite the fact that the index was above expectations and the fact that prices remained in negative territory, did not support the dollar.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.0925.



Pound

General overview

Brexit Risks will keep pressuring the pair. This week we will see whether revenues are growing, as the market expected. The budget is likely to be weak key event and we wait for Bank of England's comments regarding service sector.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4240 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The BoJ’s decision on the interest rate; its monetary policy comments and data on the monetary base annual growth will be the focus of our attention today. We did not expect any change in the rate, the regulator left it on the same level - minus 0.1%.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 114.60. If the price falls it will get to 113.00.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened against the European currencies, still it was unable to continue the recovery against the yen. The yen had strengthened its position with a hope that the BoJ would remain inactive in its further steps.

The US published a block of statistics: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (0,62 against the forecasted -10,00), Retail Sales (-0,1% against the forecasted -0,2%), Producer Price Index (at the forecasted -0,2%), Business Inventories (0,1% against the forecasted -0,1%), House Price Index (58 against the forecasted 59). The Retail Sales report was the focus of our attention. The index will help traders to form expectations about the Fed's decision on Wednesday.

The yesterday’s growth of the euro put many traders into a dead end. We do not know whether there was a strong demand for the euro, or an attempt to drive the market at high levels to sell it further at attractive prices. We believe that we will receive an answer today when the FOMC meeting will determine the trend of the pair. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD slightly strengthened.

The British currency showed a mixed background. On the one hand, the UK government bonds yield increased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. On the other hand, traders fixated profit and closed "black gold" long positions after the four-week growth which played into the sellers’ hands. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a decrease.

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan's decision to keep the interest rates without changes. The regulator lowered the assessment of the economic situation in the country. The BoJ kept the interest rates on deposits of some commercial banks to -0.1%. The regulator left the amount of asset purchases unchanged at 80 trillion yen a year. The pair USD/JPY fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro did not get a support even when favorable data from the euro zone was published. Industrial Production for January increased by 2.8% after a decrease by 1.3% a month earlier. The index exceeded the forecast of + 0.9% and reached the highest value since 2009. The monthly indicator also showed a significant growth by 2.1% against the expected 1.5% and a fall of 1.0% in December. The coming Fed’s meeting returned interest to the dollar.

The first support lies at 1.1050 and then at 1.0925. The first resistance stands at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1050 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.0925 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell when traders began buying the dollar. The main drivers for the pair GBP/USD were the coming Fed’s and the Bank of England’s meetings. Even though we do not expect any action from the regulator the market can become volatile if we get Mark Carney’s negative comments regarding the state of the UK economy.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.4080 and 1.4000 soon.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged as expected. The Bank estimates the economic impact of its January decision to lower the rate to negative values. This decision did not weaken the yen, some of traders still believe that the Bank of Japan’s mitigation measures lost its effectiveness. Now the Federal Reserve’s meeting is a focus of traders’ attention.

The first support resides at 113.00, the next is at 112.20. The first resistance stands at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 113.80 for a steady growth. The sellers need to break below 113.00 for a steady decrease.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

17.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The main reasons for the risk aversion were: concerns about the American regulator’s aggressive actions, the Bank of Japan’s inactivity at the last its meeting, the decline of oil prices and renewed talk of a British exit from the EU.

The market did not expect any change of rates from the Federal Reserve and all investors' attention was focused on the Janet Yellen’s press conference. As we expected Janet Yellen’s comments were the same as before. According to the regulator the monetary authorities will closely monitor incoming macroeconomic data and if the regulator sees inflation and the labor market positive tendency the FED will raise the rates. Yellen did not announce the date of the next rate hike, and noted that the Federal Reserve's achievement should require a lower pace of rate increase. The pair euro/dollar increased.

The UK published 2 important releases: The unemployment rate for January (the previous value was -5.1%, the forecast was 5.1%) came in at the forecasted level, and Average Earnings including Bonus for January (the previous value was 1.9%, the forecast was 2.0%) came in at the level 2,1%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth.

We expected the USD/JPY to exit the flat soon, and this exit can be very volatile. Japan does not need a strong yen as Japan’s economy keeps showing slowdown. At the same time, the strong dollar is not welcome factor for the US Federal Reserve, as the strong dollar negatively affects US exporters. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

By the end of the trades the euro sharply strengthened. Earlier the euro remained under pressure before Federal Reserve’s meeting results publication. The regulator postponed the second rate hike. The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) decreased, showing a lack of interest to US assets. The USA retail sales pointed to the “bullish” sentiment growth. The volume of trade decreased by 0.1%, in line with the consensus forecast.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.350 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The United Kingdom government bonds yields decreased in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of British assets. The pound got under pressure amid a general escape from the risky assets and a new wave of concerns regarding the UK's exit the EU. In addition, the pound was vulnerable amid the divergence between the Fed's monetary policy rates and the Bank of England’s. However by the end of the trades the pair showed a growth. On Thursday the attention of traders will be focused on the British Central Bank meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

After the resistance level of 1.4240 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 1.4320 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to strengthen after the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave the current monetary policy unchanged. However, the pair showed a reversal and the price steadily went down. The US published a consumer price index for February on the level of 0,3% m/m (the previous value was 0,0% m/m, the forecast was 0,2% m/m).

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 112.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar strengthened while waiting for the Fed decisions. However, the dollar sharply turned around and had fallen across the market after the meeting.

As expected, the Fed left the interest rates unchanged, in the range of 0.25% - 0.50%. Still it has plans to make two rate increases instead of four in the current year. The GDP forecast for 2016 was revised downwards to 2.2% from 2.4% previously. Even if the FOMC raises the interest rates only twice this year, the yield differential of USA government bonds shall expand and investors will have no choice but to buy dollars. Moreover, the "risk appetite" increase will put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a growth.

The Bank of England meeting results announcement was the key event of Thursday. The UK 10-year government bonds yield declined by 21 basis points since the last meeting of the monetary regulator, indicating a decline in inflation expectations. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged. The pair pound/dollar strengthened on the Thursday trades.

The market again began taking into account the different direction of the monetary policies of the BoJ and the Fed. One Central Bank softened its monetary policy against a background of low inflationary expectations. On the contrary, the second one plans to increase the tightening, as the core CPI indicator reached the level of 2.3% in annual terms for the first time since May 2012. The pair dollar/yen fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy in the USA for February rose by 0.3% m / m, exceeding the forecast of + 0.2%. The favorable data increased pressure on the euro, which was hurt amid the risk aversion, and was depressed before the key event: the Fed's decision regarding the monetary policy. After the meeting, the dollar quotes abruptly turned down. The Euro zone published the Consumer Price Index: at the forecasted -0,2%(y/y) and 0,2% (m/m) against the forecasted 0,1% (m/m).

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1350 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The growth of pessimism regarding the UK economy prespectives contributed to consumer activity reduction: the volume of retail trade grew by 2.28% in 2015, against the growth of 4.31% a year earlier. Given the fact that the Bank of England expects wage growth slowdown in the current year, the negative scenario becomes quite obvious.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4320. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4560.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4480, 1.4560



Yen

General overview

The United States revealed the Initial Jobless Claims for the last week 265K (the previous value was 259K; the forecast was 267K). The USA also released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey report for the March 12,4 against the forecasted -1,7.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. After the support level of 111.40 breakthrough the pair may go to 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The dollar fell sharply against the Swiss franc after the Fed's decision to leave the monetary policy unchanged. The National Bank of Switzerland hold its meeting on Thursday, as we expected the regulator decided not to change its policy.

The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short. When the price consolidates below the level of 0.9660 it may go to the level 0.9560.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market is still volatile after the Fed meeting, where the regulator corrected his plans and announced two rates hikes instead of four.

Despite the "risk appetite" growth, the euro enjoyed steady demand as a funding currency. The market has completely ignored this factor, which indicated the presence of strong buyers. The dynamics of the debt market showed mixed trends: the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew in relation to their counterparts in the UK, but reduced to US Treasuries. The trades on the pair euro/dollar closed with a decrease.

The UK did not publish important macroeconomic statistics. We believe that investors will focus their attention on the dynamics of the oil market. Black gold fell by 3%, updating the maximum of the last trading week. Demand for oil impacted the pair GBP/USD in a traditional positive way. The pair pound/dollar increased.

The pair USD/JPY set a fresh low for the last 14 months. Such a strengthening of the yen may not please the monetary authorities of Japan, as this strengthening is a threat to exporters. The United States published consumer confidence from the University of Michigan: 91,7 against the forecasted 92,1. By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB President Mario Draghi performed at the end of the week. In particular, he noted that the monetary policy itself could not respond to the structural weaknesses in Europe; the interest rates would remain at the same level or would be lowered for a longer time. Germany published Producer Price Index for February. The index came in at -0.5% m/m and at -2.7% y/y.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1350 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The English Central Bank left the rate unchanged. According to the Bank’s minutes the regulator’s tone was not so pessimistic that pushed the quotes upwards. The regulator noted growth of uncertainty due to the threat of Brexit, still he was quite positive regarding the economic situation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4640.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 102.05 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25



Yen

General overview

The Japanese yen sharply rose against the US dollar. Some analysts believe that the BoJ was behind this intervention to weaken the yen. Only by the end of the week the dollar slightly increased against the yen.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is corrcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 112.20, 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 111.40 and 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss National Bank left the monetary policy unchanged last week, the deposit rate was kept at -0.75%. Thomas Jordan, head of the Bank of Switzerland, warned about the negative consequences of a prolonged period of negative interest rates, as it may lead to the escape of the capital.

The first support resides at 0.9660, the next is at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9660. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9580.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar tried to recover after aggressive sales, still its upward potential was limited, and the US currency was in its third week of decline against the euro*. The stock markets sentiment supported the dollar. The main drivers for the risky assets strengthening were: oil growth and Prata's comments (ECB representative) regarding possible further monetary policy.

The EUR/USD showed a mixed background. On the one hand, the growth of "risk appetite" was a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency. On the other hand, moderately negative macroeconomic data from the United States did not allow the dollar to strengthen. Weak Retail Sales for January and February did not allow us to rely on an increase in sales in the secondary market. In fact the data came in at the level of 5,08M against the forecasted 5,34M. However, the pair euro/dollar decreased.

The UK government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (USA and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of investments in British assets, and thereby put pressure on the pound. On the other hand, the oil market showed a technical correction as well. Then the oil price showed a growth. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

Japan celebrated a public holiday, its banks did not work. The market showed low liquidity. The pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro was under pressure amid Praet's statements (ECB Representative). According to Praet the ECB may launch additional incentives and low the rates if necessary. He also made it clear that the Bank had the tools to deal with deflationary pressures. More recently, M. Draghi said to the contrary, assuring markets that there was no need for further policy easing. Against this background, the Praet’s words were quite a surprise for stock markets. The euro reacted to them with sales.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1350 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The sterling fell against the dollar. Earlier the pound received some support after the Bank of England quarterly bulletin publication where the regulator paid much attention to China. The Central Bank believes that the UK economy was exposed to only a minor risk by slowing growth in China. The China GDP falling by 1% shall take from the British economy 0.1%. Although the Bank acknowledged that it expected a further China's GDP slowdown.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow above the resistance level of 1.4400. After breaking 1.4400 the buyers may go to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The debt market dynamics showed a moderate demand for the Japanese currency: the government bonds yields differential (the United States and Japanese) moderately reduced, which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. By the end of the trades the pair slightly increased.

The first support resides at 111.40, the next is at 110.60. The first resistance stands at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 111.40 and 110.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

23.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar stopped its growth against the major currencies on Tuesday, but still received support, as investors remained cautious after a series of terrorist attacks in Brussels that killed 26 people and left wounded more than 100. The tragic events in Brussels had a negative impact on the euro and the British pound.

In the absence of important macroeconomic reports the market consolidated in a narrow range. Even the US releases did not revive the market. Existing Home Sales for February came in at a minimum level, having decreased by 7.1%, while analysts had expected a more modest drop of 2.8%. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February came in at -0.29 vs. the forecast of +0.25 and the previous value of + 0.41.

We will pay attention to the IFO Institute publication. This indicator is closely correlated with the dynamics of the German GDP and is always closely monitored by investors. This indicator has been showing a negative trend last three months. The market did not expect the data better than the consensus forecast amid strengthening of the euro. However, the data came in at the level of 106,7 against the forecasted 106,0. The pair euro/dollar fell.

The Inflation Report was published in the UK. As we expected the strong labor market figures pointed to the report that was slightly better than the consensus forecast. The unemployment in the UK is at the lowest level since 2005 now, while the average monthly earnings was 0.2% in the last three months which would increase inflationary pressures. The Consumer Price Index came in at the level of 0,3% y/y and 0,2% m/m against the forecasted 0,4% y/y and 0,4% m/m. The pair pound/dollar sharply fell.

We do not expect strong growth of quotations right now. The United States disappointed investors with weak macroeconomic statistics: Existing Home Sales for February decreased by 7.1% in February. The home sales fell by 6.7% from January to March, which once again confirmed the hypothesis that the Americans began to save more than to spend. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

After the US publications the dollar slightly weakened. Later, euro weakened after the weak Consumer Confidence index publication in the Euro area for March – the index fell to -9.7 vs. the forecast of -8.15 and at the previous value of -8.80. The Euro zone published Manufacturing PMI 51,4 against the forecasted 51,3 and Services PMI 54,0 against the forecasted 53,3 from Markit. In Germany these data came in at the level of 50,4 against the forecasted 50,8 and 55,5 against the forecasted 55,0. Economic Sentiment in Germany from ZEW came in at 4.3 versus the forecast of 5.0.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price falls it will get to 1.1150 and 1.1050. The upward bounce potential targets are 1.1260, 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

The pound felt the pressure amid the political factor, which added some fears about the Brexit. Ian Duncan Smith, the British Minister for Labour Affairs and Pensions resigned due to disagreements with the Prime Minister over the fiscal policy. In addition to the possible split in the government, the CBI investigation added some negative sentiment. According to the CBI the country's exit from the EU could cost £ 100 billion for the UK economy and nearly 1 million jobs might be lost by 2020.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160, 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

Manufacturing PMI was published in the United States at the level of 51,4 against the forecasted 51,8. The United States upset investors with the weak macroeconomic statistics: Existing Home Sales decreased by 7.1% for February. The Existing Home Sales fell by 6.7% from January to March.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 113.00 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 113.80 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The tragic events in Brussels impacted the market. This news pressured the euro and stock assets. As a result, the dollar strengthened against most of its rivals, but lost to the commodity currencies. The United States published New Home Sales for February at the level of 512K (the previous value was 502K, the forecast was 510K).

Despite the increased geopolitical tensions on Tuesday, the euro as a safe asset failed to get additional dividends. The terrorist attack in Brussels supported the single currency only in the short term. In general traders did not close "risky assets" in panic. However the pair euro/dollar fell on Wednesday.

The "black gold" dynamics identified the trend on the British currency. Inflation release for February disappointed the market with its weak data. CPI came out worse than the consensus forecast. Inflation differential of UK and the United States re-expanded in favor of the latter. Consumer prices declined in both countries: the index declined by 0.53% in the UK, and by 0.05% in the United States. The pair pound/dollar continued the decrease.

The increased demand for "risky" assets supported the USDJPY "bulls". The fact that investors ignored the negative sentiment pointed to strong buyers presence who came not for one day. The pair USD/JPY showed a growth and rebounded downwards only by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The EUR/USD showed a mixed background. On the one hand, Germany 10 years government bonds yield increased relative to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which increased the attractiveness of European assets. On the other hand, the growth of "risk appetite" is a negative factor for the euro as a funding currency.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1150, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1050. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260 and 1.1350.



Pound

General overview

The main reasons for the pair’s sales were: renewed fears about the Brexit and the British statistics. Consumer Price Index for February left a negative territory, but did not meet market’s expectations. The index amounted + 0.2% m/m vs. the forecast of + 0.4% m/m. Producer prices showed good results, but the PPI declined by 8.1% from -8.0% versus the expected improvement to -7.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4080 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4000 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan will be replenished with supporters of negative interest rates. Makoto Sakurai, who supports the negative interest rates, was elected as a new member of the Board of Directors on Wednesday. This is likely to change the balance in favor of the Haruhiko Kuroda. Unlike his predecessor, Sakurai sees negative interest rates as a powerful tool to support lending.

The first support resides at 112.20, the next is at 111.40. The first resistance stands at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 113.00. After breaking 113.00 the buyers may go to 113.80. If the price falls it will get to 112.20 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

 

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar stopped its growth. Earlier two factors supported the dollar: returned risk appetite and the new "hawkish" statements of Fed speakers. Traders started to buy the dollar after the Bullard’s performance (Fed representative). Bullard joined the recent comments of his colleagues, having revived traders’ hopes for an early rate hike, which, according to several speakers might occur in April or June. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than it was expected: 265 thousand against the forecasted 268 thousand. Western World will celebrate Good Friday today.

The yield differential of US and German government bonds reduced. That fact reduced the attractiveness of US assets and would put pressure on the dollar. Another important positive factor was the closing of risk assets. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar showed a growth after a decrease.

The UK retail sales report for February was the main event in the UK yesterday. The index pleased us and showed -0.4% when the forecast was -0.7%. The pair pound/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

Japan showed a mixed fundamental background yesterday. On the one hand, the Japanese government downgraded its forecasts for economic growth in 2016. The government expects the decline in personal consumption and corporate profits decrease. In this regard, bears are well aware that count on the strengthening of the yen is extremely dangerous. On the other hand, the financial markets showed decline of "risk appetite", which might positively impact the yen as a funding currency. The pair dollar/yen increased after the downward movement.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair focused its attention on the stock assets dynamics in the absence of economic data. Risk interest played against the single currency, which was also affected by the strengthening of the dollar after the Fed representatives’ "hawkish" statements. The EUR/USD could not strengthen even after a slight
deterioration of sentiment on the USA stock market that was caused by oil quotations falling. The dollar kept its stable positions. Only by the end of the trades the piar increased amid the slight dollar’s weakness.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.1150. The potential growth target is the resistance levels of 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. The increased "risk appetite" could not be ignored as well, putting pressure on the cross-rate EUR/GBP. The risk appetite had a positive impact on the British currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japanese exporters repeatedly stated the need of measures aimed at weakening of the national currency. The US and Japanese government bond yield differential widened to its highest level since 30 th December, 2015, which also played into the hands of the US currency buyers.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar strengthened its positions after a positive US housing market data. The promising Federal Reserve representatives’ comments supported the USA currency as well along side with the increased demand for safe assets after the terrorist attacks in Brussels. However, then the dollar’s growth stopped.

The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9580



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.