Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

Powell staged a sell-off: Nasdaq fell by 3.5%, bitcoin went below $100,000

At the last meeting, the Fed, as expected, cut the rate by 0.25%. This decision was taken into account by the markets in advance, but the revised forecasts for rates caused a sharp reaction in the financial markets.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that in 2024, only two rate cuts are expected instead of the four previously envisaged. «We have reached the current level quickly, but we will move more slowly in the future,» Powell stressed at a press conference.

The markets reacted by falling. The Fed's tougher tone hit risky assets:

- The Dow Jones fell 2.58%, ending trading at 42,326.87 and recording its first 10-day losing streak since 1974.
- The S&P 500 declined 2.95% to 5,872.16.
- The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.56% to 19,392.69.

Cryptocurrencies have also come under pressure. Bitcoin, which had previously updated its high above $108,000, dropped to a weekly low of $98,844 in just a few hours. However, it later recovered and rose again above the psychological mark of $100,000. The current BTC quote is $101,543.

Pressure on bitcoin was exerted by Powell's statement that the Fed cannot legally own bitcoin, and any changes to this rule depend on Congress. Recall that following the results of the November elections, the Republican Party gained full control of the US Congress.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

The Bank of England suspends rate cuts due to rising inflation

On Thursday, the Bank of England concluded its last meeting of the year, leaving the key rate unchanged. This decision turned out to be expected, given that inflation in the UK has reached an eight-month peak. Economists feared that raising rates could have a negative impact on the economy, which is already experiencing difficulties.

Earlier this year, the Bank of England has already cut the key rate twice, reducing it from 5.25% to 4.75%. Nevertheless, the latest data on rising inflation in November and higher wages in the summer forced financial markets to reconsider their expectations about possible interest rate cuts in the future. Market participants now assume that next year the decline will be about 50 bps, which is lower than the previous forecast of 70 bps.

The Bank of England's decision followed a move by the US Federal Reserve, which also cut rates by a quarter point. Although the decline was expected, traders were surprised by the central bank's assumption that further rate cuts would be negligible, only twice in 2025.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Analysts predict a cautious reduction in Fed rates in 2025

Analysts expect the US Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps in June and September 2025, which will eventually amount to 50 bps. At the last meeting, the regulator reduced the rate by 25 bps, bringing the total reduction since September to 100 bps, and the target range is up to 4.25-4.5%.

However, the updated dot chart of the Fed reflected a tougher position, suggesting only a 50 bps reduction in 2025, instead of the previously predicted 100 bps. The regulator's policy may remain restrained until 2027.

Financial markets reacted with falling stocks, rising bond yields, and a stronger dollar. Jerome Powell noted that the US economy is growing above forecasts, and inflation continues to exceed the target level of 2%. This led to a more balanced approach to further rate cuts.

Analysts have revised their forecast, expecting two rate cuts in 2025. At the same time, economists admit the possibility of a March decline if labor market data deteriorates.

The Fed's tough stance strengthened the dollar, its exchange rate exceeded 108. However, experts believe that the overvaluation of the currency and limited prospects for policy easing pose risks of its weakening. The bank predicts a return of the EUR/USD pair to 1.10 at the end of 2025.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

China will maintain its leadership in car exports, despite EU duties

China will maintain its leading position among global car exporters in 2025. Despite this, the volume of supplies will significantly decrease due to the introduction of additional duties by the European Union on electric vehicles manufactured in China.

Europe, as the largest overseas market, remains an important source of revenue for Chinese automakers who seek to minimize the impact of trade barriers by introducing gasoline and hybrid models.

Large companies such as SAIC Motor are expanding their product lines with hybrid technologies. Hua Chuang Securities estimates that Chinese car exports could reach 5.58 million units in 2025, up 14% from a year earlier, but significantly lower than the 29% increase this year and 58% in 2023, when China surpassed Japan.

According to Canalys, Chinese car exports grew by 27% in the first three quarters, reaching 3.1 million units. However, EU duties ranging from 17% to 35.3% will weaken demand for electric vehicles. SAIC Motor already offers hybrid versions of the MG3 and MG ZS models to retain European customers.

In October, the EU imposed new five-year tariffs on Chinese EVs, supplementing the standard 10% tax. They also affect brands such as Volkswagen and BMW, which produce cars in China.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Russia has started using Bitcoin in foreign trade

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russian companies have started using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in international settlements. This was made possible by changes in legislation aimed at circumventing Western sanctions.

Economic restrictions have made it difficult to trade with key partners such as China and Turkey, as local banks avoid transactions with Russia for fear of sanctions. In response, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in international trade and took steps to legalize their mining, including bitcoin mining.

«As part of the experimental regime, bitcoins mined in Russia can be used for international trade operations,» Siluanov said on the Rossiya 24 TV channel. He stressed that such transactions are already taking place, and expressed confidence in their further expansion in 2025. The minister called international payments using digital currencies an important step into the future.

President Vladimir Putin noted earlier in December that the actions of the US administration undermine the dollar's role as a reserve currency, forcing countries to look for alternative assets. He singled out bitcoin as an example of a tool that cannot be controlled by any country in the world.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Tesla shares have a dangerous competitor – Nvidia

According to Vanda Research, Nvidia shares attracted record investments of almost $30 billion in 2024. This has made them the most popular among private investors.

As of the end of December, Nvidia shares are on track to overtake the popularity of Tesla shares, which were the leaders in 2023. «Nvidia kind of stole the show from Tesla because of the impressive price increase. The results speak for themselves,» said Marco Iacini, Senior Vice President of Vanda.

However, as previously reported, Nvidia shares fell by 2.55% on December 9 after the Chinese authorities announced the launch of an antitrust investigation into the company.

Experts believe that Nvidia is «caught in the crossfire» of the battle for technological supremacy between the United States and China, as Washington has banned the company from selling advanced semiconductors to Chinese companies.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

The dollar's share in world reserves has updated its 30-year low

The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter reached its lowest level in almost 30 years.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the indicator decreased by 0.85 percentage points, amounting to 57.4%. This is the lowest value since 1995, as there are no earlier statistics.

The decrease in the dollar's share is due to an increase in investments in euros: its share increased to 20.02% from 19.75% in the second quarter.

Investments in the Japanese yen and non-foreign currencies also increased, reaching 5.82% and 4.46%, respectively. For the yen, this was the highest since the end of March 2021.

The Swiss franc, like the dollar, reduced its share of reserves to 0.17%, which was the lowest since the end of 2021.

On the contrary, interest in the yuan began to recover: after nine quarters of decline, its share in reserves increased to 2.17% in the third quarter of 2025.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

What awaits the U.S. economy in 2025?

The U.S. economy enters 2025 with positive forecasts, despite the risks associated with high interest rates, a possible weakening of the labor market and political instability.

Consumption remains steady, corporate profits are growing, and businesses are investing in technology and preparing for the AI revolution.

According to forecasts, GDP growth in 2025 will be 2.5%, which is only slightly below the level of 2024. The S&P 500 index is also expected to grow by 12% due to successful corporate performance.

However, challenges remain: the labor market is showing a slowdown in hiring, and the number of long-term unemployed is increasing. The Fed raised its inflation forecast to 2.5% for 2025 and is likely to limit further rate cuts, which will put pressure on corporate and government debt.

Investments in equipment and technology continue to grow, which supports economic dynamics. Nevertheless, Donald Trump's program, which includes tariffs and reforms, may pose risks to inflation and market stability in the long term.

In general, experts remain optimistic: consumption, business investment and technological innovation will be the drivers of growth.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Oil continues to rise in price after rising the day before

Oil prices continue to rise, reaching their highest levels since October. Brent futures for March delivery rose to $77.85 per barrel.

The day before, this grade rose by $0.75 (+1%), closing at $77.05. WTI futures for February delivery added $0.41 (+0.55%) and reached $74.66 per barrel, after rising by $0.69 (+0.9%) a day earlier. Both brands ended the previous session at their highest levels since October.

Growth factors:

-Seasonal demand. The good travel figures during the holiday period supported the optimism.
-Chinese incentives. Expectations of economic support in China are pushing the quotes up.

Inventory data:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in oil reserves in the United States by 4 million barrels per week, which was the fifth decline in a row. If the official data of the Ministry of Energy confirms this assessment, it will strengthen the market. Analysts predict a decrease in stocks by 250 thousand barrels.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

The Fed expects further interest rate cuts in 2025

Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, expressed confidence that inflation in the United States will continue to decline in 2025, which will create conditions for further interest rate cuts.

Although inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target at the end of 2024, market estimates and short-term indicators point to a slowing trend.

At an OECD event in Paris, Waller stressed that further rate cuts would be possible with a steady decline in inflation and stability in the labor market. He noted that the Fed has already cut the key rate by 1 percentage point over the last three meetings, but at the next meeting in January, the rate is expected to remain in the range of 4.25-4.5%. According to him, opinions within the Fed are divided: from assumptions about the absence of a rate cut to expectations of a reduction of 1.25 percentage points in 2025.

Waller added that the U.S. economy remains strong, with rising hiring and wages supporting consumer spending. New data on the labor market, which will be published in the coming days, may confirm this stability.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

The pound continues to fall

The British pound continues to lose ground, showing a noticeable lag behind the trajectory of UK government bond yields. Deutsche Bank analysts recommend selling the pound based on data from a broad trade-weighted index.

The current quote of the GBP/USD pair is 1.2213. Today, the currency has plummeted from 1.2318. Analysts note that since the beginning of the year, the pound sterling has shown the worst results among world currencies, comparable to the decline recorded after the announcement of the UK budget in November last year.

In its analysis, Deutsche Bank points to no signs of improvement in the country's current account deficit, as well as the risk of further deterioration in volatility-adjusted yields.

The bank's report pays special attention to the dependence of the pound on capital inflows through the carry trade, which is now under threat. After taking profits on long positions in December, Deutsche Bank analysts revised their strategy and switched to selling recommendations.

Since the beginning of the year, the pound has lost just over 1% in the trade-weighted index. Although this has not historically been a significant decline, the recent weakness of the pound is particularly noticeable against the backdrop of the strengthening US dollar, against which most world currencies have reached multi-month or even multi-year lows.

---

A strong US economy strengthens the dollar to a two-year high

On Monday, the US dollar strengthened, forcing other currencies to reach multi-year lows. Its growth was supported by strong employment data, confirming the resilience of the US economy and complicating the prospects for a Fed rate cut.

The dollar index, reflecting its exchange rate against a basket of currencies, reached 110.17, the highest in more than two years. This happened against the background of Friday's statistics, which showed an acceleration in job creation in December and a decrease in unemployment to 4.1%. These data have dampened expectations for a rate cut, and markets are now ruling out the possibility of even one cut in 2025.

The publication of US inflation data on Wednesday could further strengthen the dollar if the CPI rises. Statements from the Fed's representatives are also expected this week, which may clarify their further actions.

The US economy is demonstrating resilience, which supports a high dollar exchange rate. According to analysts, the labor market has coped with any signs of weakness. Plans for import tariffs, tax cuts, and tougher immigration may also have an impact on inflation.

The euro fell to $1.0177, reaching its lowest level since November 2022, while the pound sterling fell 0.7%, dropping to a 14-month low of $1.21.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Japanese bond yields reached record levels

The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has reached a record high since they entered the market. This happened against the backdrop of a global sell-off of debt assets and expectations of higher interest rates from the Bank of Japan in the coming months.

The indicator increased by 3 basis points, reaching 2.755%, the highest level in the last 16 years. At the same time, Japan's 20-year bond yields have also reached a peak not seen since May 2011.

Rising yields are recorded around the world, which is associated with increasing concerns about inflation, increasing budget deficits and stable data on the US economy. Such factors force market participants to reconsider their expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts. In addition, investors are gradually putting into their forecasts the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, estimating this scenario at 60% in the coming week and at 83% by March.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ryozo Himino, noted that the possibility of changing the current interest rate policy will be discussed at the upcoming meeting of the central bank. Experts believe that a rate hike may take place in the coming days if market conditions turn out to be favorable for such a decision.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Oil tanker freight prices skyrocketed amid US sanctions

The cost of oil transportation is showing a noticeable increase, which is associated with forecasts of a decrease in the availability of tankers on the global market. The reason for this is the expansion of US sanctions measures against the Russian navy. The introduction of these restrictions affected freight rates, which increased between 15-35%, depending on the shipping route.

It is separately noted that yesterday the Shell oil Corporation leased three large tankers, each of which is capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels of oil. The rental rate was Worldscale 70. The Chinese company Shenghong Petrochemical has also concluded deals for the charter of two vessels at a similar price. Deliveries are expected to be completed in early February.

According to ship brokers, the increased demand for oil tankers has caused a significant increase in tariffs on the Middle East–China route. In just a day, the indicator increased by WS10.75, reaching WS70.45 by January 15.

In addition, a similar trend has been recorded in other areas. For example, the fare on the Middle East-Singapore route increased by WS10.45, reaching WS71.80, and on the West Africa-China route, the increase was WS9.23, raising the rate to WS70.67.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

China's GDP growth in 2024 reached the target 5%

China's GDP grew by 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, exceeding the projected 5% and figures from previous quarters (5.3%, 4.7% and 4.6%). This made it possible to achieve annual economic growth of 5%, which corresponds to the official target.

Increased economic activity was due to a policy change in September last year, but large-scale incentives are needed for further recovery. At the same time, the statistical bureau warned of weak domestic demand and the impact of external factors, calling for an active macroeconomic policy.

Positive data strengthened the CSI 300 index by 0.15%, the yuan exchange rate to 7.3398 per dollar, and the yield on 10-year bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.638. December growth in retail sales was 3.7%, industrial production – 6.2%, but investments in fixed assets increased by only 3.2% over the year. Investments in real estate decreased by 10.6%. The unemployment rate rose to 5.1%.

Incomes of urban residents increased by 4.4%, in rural areas – by 6.3%. The representative of the statistical bureau noted weak consumer activity and a possible increase in external pressure in 2025. Inflation in the country remains low, and wholesale prices continue to decline for the 27th month in a row.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Trump's Inauguration and the Crypto Market: the beginning of an era of change

Bitcoin exceeded $109,000 for the first time in history, reaching $109,112 during trading. The growth is explained by the expectations of the inauguration of Donald Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies and plans to make bitcoin a national priority.

Moreover, on the eve of his inauguration, Trump launched the TRUMP meme token on the Solana blockchain, which caused an unprecedented stir. The capitalization of the token has reached $5 billion, and leading exchanges are adding it through futures. The project is linked to CIC Digital, which previously produced Trump's NFT. 80% of TRUMP tokens are blocked for three years, which highlights the long-term plans. The launch of TRUMP coincided with the expectation of the crypto reforms that Trump is going to initiate.

Against the background of the launch of TRUMP, Solana has significantly increased in price. According to Coin Metrics, the value of SOL increased by 12%, reaching $247.76, although previously the growth was almost 23%. TRUMP, with a capitalization of more than $5 billion, became the largest meme coin on the Solana network, which provoked an increase in interest in the platform. Against this background, large companies are applying to create ETFs related to Solana. Decisions on the applications are expected before January 25. Analysts predict that the approved ETFs will attract significant investments.

Also, Donald Trump's wife, Melania, announced the launch of her own cryptocurrency, called $MELANIA. The price of the token has reached over $5, and its market capitalization has exceeded $5 billion. In her message, Melania strongly recommended subscribers to think about investing in her project, which immediately received approval from participants in the cryptocurrency market.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---

Bitcoin is losing ground amid expectations of Trump's actions

The collapse of bitcoin from record heights recorded on Monday is related to traders' expectations regarding President Donald Trump's actions in the field of cryptocurrencies. After signing key decrees on the first day of his presidency, the market was hoping for signals about his position on crypto policy.

Previously, digital assets showed steady growth against the backdrop of Trump's inauguration. The optimism of market participants was caused by hopes for possible initiatives that could support the crypto industry. However, the president focused on other campaign promises, including issues related to TikTok, trade, and energy, without mentioning cryptocurrencies.

Against the background of this uncertainty, bitcoin lost ground, falling from a historical high of over $109,000. The uncertainty of Trump's trade policy increased the risk in the market, which was reflected in a decrease in the value of the main cryptocurrency to $102,240.

Additionally, the market was destabilized by Trump's release of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins, which led to increased volatility. Solana, Cardano and Polygon fell by 3.8-7%, while Dogecoin lost 6.1% among meme tokens.
More news on our website: https://bit.ly/4a81506 

---