Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

March 25. The backlog of vaccinations in the EU was estimated at 123 billion euros

Economists believe that the lag of the EU countries from the approved vaccination calendar against coronavirus could cost the European economy about 123 billion euros. The EU is currently seven weeks behind schedule.

It is noted that by the end of summer, the EU countries should vaccinate 70% of the population. And in order to achieve this, vaccination must be significantly accelerated. However, problems with the supply of vaccines from AstraZeneca and the refusal of residents of many European countries to vaccinate with this particular drug call into question the success of this campaign.

According to experts, France is also seven weeks behind the vaccination schedule, and each week of lag could cost the country's economy 3 billion euros.

The current difficulties with vaccination will be discussed at the summit on Thursday by the heads of state and government of the EU countries. It is assumed that politicians will discuss measures to increase vaccine production and accelerate vaccination of the population.

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March 26. Experts believe that cars will rise in price because of the Suez Canal blocking

Experts believe that blocking the movement of ships through the Suez Canal will inevitably lead to higher prices for cars.

It is noted that the incident involving the container ship Evergreen mainly affected the European Union. For three days, a queue of more than 200 ships gathered near the blocked canal. Another part of the tankers headed by a roundabout route around Africa – and this will move the delivery dates by 15 days.

Analysts also note that the situation in the Suez Canal may affect the cost of some industrial goods from Europe, including automotive products. The fact is that the increase in costs due to the additional time spent in chartering ships is approximately $8,000 for each container from China. Although this is a small amount, the main problem is timing.

Currently, the European markets are already experiencing assembly problems due to the lack of chips. And 15 days of delay can lead to an increase in the cost of cars by 1-2%.

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March 30. Consumer Confidence in the US in March rose to its highest in a year

According to the analyst firm Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in the US in March rose to 109.7 points from the revised February index of 90.4 points. Analysts had forecast growth in the indicator to only 96.9 points from the initial February value of 91.3 points. In addition, the index has reached its highest value in a year.

The index of economic expectations in March jumped to 109.6 points from the revised February index of 90.9 points. The index of economic conditions in March also rose to 110 points from the revised value of 89.6 points in February (originally the indicator was 92 points).

The US dollar reacted to such statistics with even greater growth. For example, the exchange rate of the main currency pair EUR/USD is 1.1700, which is the lowest value since November last year.

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March 31. ECB sees opportunity to launch digital euro by 2025

The head of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde said that the regulator could launch the digital euro around the middle of this decade, in 2025.

In her interview, Lagarde noted that the main task of the ECB is to ensure the correct approach to the process of creating a digital European currency, which can take several years. «This is a technical project and also a fundamental change. We have to make sure we don't break the system, but we will improve it», Lagarde said.

The ECB intends to publish an analysis of the 8,000 responses received in a public consultation on a potential digital currency launch. Further, the analysis will be sent to the European Parliament, and then – to the ECB Governing Council, which by the middle of this year will decide whether to continue this experimental work. The final decision on whether to introduce digital currency at all will be made six months or a year after that.

The European Central Bank has said it is considering issuing a digital euro to prepare for the digital age. The European Commission, in turn, noted that the digital euro can support the digitalization of the entire EU economy, which is one of the most important elements of the EU's development.

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April 1. Owners of container ship Ever Given will pay about a billion dollars in fines

The manager of the Suez Canal, Osama Rabia, said that the financial losses from the blocking of the trade route, which arose due to the fault of the container ship Ever Given, would amount to about a billion dollars. This amount will be collected from the owner of the vessel. According to Rabia, the money will go to offset the cost of re-floating the vessel, as well as to cover financial losses caused by the congestion in the waterway. Suez Canal navigation resumed on Tuesday 30 March.

Osama Rabia also said that all ships affected by the forced delay will be given a discount of up to 15% for passage. The discount will vary from 5% to 15%, depending on the period of time for which each vessel was forced to stand idle.

After the incident, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ordered the purchase of the most modern and large dredgers and tugs for his needs. Their cost is estimated at $500 million. The very same vessel Ever Given will remain at a stop in the lakes until the investigation is over, the perpetrators of the incident are identified, and compensation and fines are not paid.

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April 2. Non-farm Payrolls report significantly exceeded expectations

Today, the US Department of Labor released a report Non-farm Payrolls, according to which, the number of jobs outside of agriculture in March rose by 916 thousand, and the unemployment rate fell to 6%. The current increase significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts (647 thousand) and became the fastest since August 2020.

Stronger US economic growth and strong vaccination efforts fueled the job growth. Analysts note that the country's economy is recovering, restrictions are lifted, and those who have lost their jobs are returning to jobs. The only concern is the potential likelihood of another wave of Covid, which could lead to another round of closings.

In April last year, against the backdrop of the pandemic, unemployment in the United States was at the level of 14.7%, in May – 13.3%, in June – 11.1%, in July – 10.2%, in August – 8.4%. and in September – 7.9%. The actual figure of 6% clearly speaks of a significant recovery in the American labor market. In mid-March, the Fed improved its forecast for US unemployment in 2021 to 4.5% from 5%. In 2022, the indicator will be at the level of 3.9% against the previously expected 4.2%, in 2023 – at the level of 3.5% against 3.7%.

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April 7. Coronavirus and Emerging Markets

The coronavirus pandemic is having a strong negative impact on emerging markets.

India yesterday confirmed over 115,000 new cases of Covid-19, a record high in history. If the current trend continues, it means that the peak of the epidemic in India has not yet been reached. The country, which is the world's largest vaccine producer, has suspended exports to other countries in order to vaccinate its citizens.

Turkey is also seeing a rapid increase in the daily rate of Covid-19 infection. Almost 50,000 new infections were confirmed in the country yesterday, also a record high.

The economies of India and Turkey have experienced high inflation rates even before the surge in infections, so the pandemic could further exacerbate their internal economic problems.

At today's meeting, the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 4%.

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April 8. US stock markets continued their upward rally

Reports on initial and ongoing jobless claims in the US were released today, which turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts. Moreover, today traders will follow the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the IMF, although they do not expect important news from this speech.

More information has emerged about the tax changes planned by President Joe Biden's administration. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has previously excited the markets with statements of a minimum international tax - an idea that the EU also supports. It turned out that the 15% tax that it offers will apply only to companies with annual revenues of at least $ 2 billion, which means it will have less impact on the market than previously thought.

Tax plan adjustments are beneficial for the stock markets. Today, American stock indices continued to renew their all-time highs, despite disappointing data on unemployment in the country.

Meanwhile, AstraZeneca's share price is rising, despite the company's continuing troubles. The European Medicines Agency and the UK Medicines and Health Agency have determined that AstraZeneca vaccine, in rare cases, can contribute to a possible death from blood clotting.

Due to the rarity of this problem (20 out of 20 million vaccinations in the UK) and the severity of Covid-19, both agencies still recommend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. This optimism is most likely the driving force behind the rise in the pharmaceutical company's stock.

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April 12. The first blockchain operator was founded in Russia

The Moscow Exchange and members of the FinTech Association (AFT), which includes large Russian credit institutions, founded the first blockchain operator in Russia. In addition to the Moscow Exchange, VTB, PSB and the National Payment Card System (NSPK) and AFT took part in the project. Each co-founder owns 1/6 of the share in the company.

The creators of the operator are confident that it will allow the development of innovative products and services, as well as reduce costs for all market participants.

AFT will transfer the rights to the only Russian certified blockchain platform «Masterchain» to the operator. With the help of this platform, services and products are created using Russian cryptography standards.

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Oil market. April 15, 2021 | Brent remains in the area of monthly highs

On Thursday, oil prices continued to be in the area of ​​monthly highs, thanks to improved forecasts for global fuel demand. The current Brent quotation is $66.30 per barrel.

Prices were supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which oil demand is expected to grow by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2021 compared to 2020. And this is 230 thousand barrels per day more than previously predicted. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has also improved its forecast for global oil demand for the current year and is now expecting an increase of 5.95 million barrels per day.

Additional support for quotations of «black gold» was provided by yesterday's data on crude oil reserves in the United States. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that oil reserves last week fell by 5.89 million barrels, while analysts had expected a half-cut, by 2.89 million barrels. In the current environment, oil prices will continue to trade above $66.00 per barrel.

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April 16. Why is the oil market growing?

The oil market continues to grow on Friday. Brent quotes reached $67.37 per barrel, WTI – $63,87. Experts note that the general fundamental background continues to support prices.

In particular, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on Wednesday announced a decrease in commercial crude oil reserves in the week of April 3-9 by 5.9 million barrels. In addition, projected gasoline demand rose to an almost 8-month high of 8.9 million barrels per day, down 5% from the same period in 2019.

Another factor supporting the «black gold» was the increase in the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on demand for crude oil in 2021 by 230 thousand barrels per day. Now the agency believes that this year the demand for oil will be 5.7 million barrels per day higher than in 2020, and will amount to 96.7 million barrels per day.

OPEC also raised its forecast for oil demand this year by 100 thousand barrels per day. The organization expects that global oil demand in 2021 will grow by about 6 million barrels to 96.5 million barrels per day. OPEC also raised its forecast for global economic growth – to 5.4% from 5.1%.

The weakening of the dollar continues to contribute to the rise in prices, which remains under pressure against the background of the decrease in the yield of Treasury bonds below the level of 1.60%.

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April 19. Wall Street declines, consolidating after record peaks

On Monday, the US stock market opened lower, consolidating in the absence of important economic news. Earlier last week, Wall Street hit another record high.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 114 points to 34.066 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 4.158 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% to 13.873 points.

The main reason for the decline in the market, analysts called the sharp sell-off of cryptocurrencies over the weekend, which reminded investors how hectic the atmosphere was in the financial market during the pandemic.

Tesla shares plunged 4% after another Tesla self-driving car crash resulting in two fatalities, once again calling into question the capabilities of the Full Self-Driving software. Peloton shares lost more than 7% after a public dispute with US regulators over the safety of its Tread +. Coinbase Global shares fell 0.9% after the cryptocurrency sharp correction seems to have exhausted itself. Growth leaders included Harley-Davidson, Manchester United Football Club and GameStop.

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April 21. What to expect from the Bank of Canada meeting today?

Today the Bank of Canada has to make a decision on monetary policy, and it will not be easy. On the one hand, the latest macro statistics for the country were very strong: the economy is actively creating jobs, consumer spending is growing, production activity is accelerating, and the housing market is showing buyers willingness to pay even more than sellers are asking for.

Given these factors, the Central Bank of Canada should be confident and willing to wind down its bond buyback program. However, it is not all so simple.

The fact is that the number of Covid cases in the country is growing steadily, and many parts of Canada are re-imposing restrictions, which will be extended until the end of May. The new restrictions will slow economic recovery and prevent the Bank of Canada from winding down stimulus. Accordingly, the contradiction between strong macro statistics and strict quarantine is one of the reasons why it will not be easy for the Bank of Canada to make a decision on the rate.

The current quote for the USD/CAD pair is 1.2600. The US dollar rose sharply yesterday from 1.2470 to 1.2625. If the Bank of Canada maintains its positive outlook and underscores the outlook for economic recovery, the pair could respond with a decline to 1.25. But if the regulator focuses on risks, and the tone of the statement is cautious, the pair may break through the 1.27 level on the wave of short coverage.

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April 26. The meeting of all OPEC + ministers will take place on April 28

On April 28, a meeting of all OPEC + ministers and a meeting of the Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will take place. On the eve of these events, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said that the organization sees positive signals in the development of the world economy and in the prospects for the oil industry. At the same time, many factors remain that require constant monitoring and maintaining vigilance.

Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak noted that the main task at the OPEC + meeting will be to analyze the situation on the oil market. Novak regards the current situation as «balanced».

Recall that due to the drop in oil demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, OPEC + has reduced its production by 9.7 million barrels per day since May 2020. As demand recovered, the restrictions were adjusted, and for the current April they amount to 6.9 million barrels per day.

Since May, OPEC + has agreed on a further reduction in the volume of reduced production – to 6.55 million barrels per day, from June – to 6.2 million, from July – to 5.76 million.

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April 27. US economic indicators exceed forecasts

According to the research organization Conference Board, the index of consumer confidence in the United States in April rose to 121.7 points compared with the revised index of 109 points in March. Earlier, the indicator value for March was estimated at 90.7 points. Analysts had expected the index to reach 113 points.

Successful vaccination of the population, as well as a visible improvement in economic performance, has a positive effect on American sentiment. The indicator of the attitude of American consumers to the current financial situation in April soared to 139.6 points from 110.1 points in the previous month.

Experts point out that consumer confidence has skyrocketed over the past two months and is now at its highest level since February 2020.

In addition, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 20 largest US cities jumped 11.9% year-on-year in February, the fastest growth since March 2014. In monthly comparison, the indicator increased by 1.2%.

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April 28. Ethereum updated the maximum on news about the launch of digital bonds

Ethereum, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, reached a new peak on Wednesday amid news that the European Investment Bank (EIB) is launching digital bond sales on the Ethereum blockchain. As a result, Ethereum hit an all-time high of $2,725, up 5.5%.

Yesterday it was revealed that the EIB plans to issue a two-year digital bond worth €100 million, with Goldman Sachs, Banco Santander and Societe Generale leading the sale.

Experts note that the news of the EIB's digital bond issue prompted institutional investors to buy the token. They also noted a decrease in the supply of Ethereum in the market, which led to an increase in its price.

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April 29. US GDP in the first quarter grew by 6.4%

According to a press release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce, the country's GDP in the first quarter of the year, according to the first estimate, grew by 6.4% on an annualized basis (if GDP grew at the same rate for four quarters in a row). Analysts predicted that the economy would expand by 6.1%.

At the same time, according to the first estimate in annual terms (that is, in relation to the same period of the previous year), the US economy in the first quarter grew by 0.4%.

According to the results of the whole last year, the US economy declined by 3.5%. Experts note that such a decline in the largest economy in the world was the strongest since 1946, when the indicator fell by 11.6%. In addition, this was the first decline in US GDP in a year since 2009 – then the indicator dropped by 2.5%.

US GDP in the IV quarter of 2020 grew by 4.3% on an annualized basis and decreased by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year.

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May 03. German GDP fell 1.7%

According to the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the country's GDP contracted in the first quarter by 1.7% in quarterly terms and by 3% in annual terms. At the same time, Germany's GDP in the third quarter of last year grew by 8.7%, and in the fourth quarter – by 0.5%.

The weakening of the largest economy in Europe pulled down the entire economy of the eurozone countries: according to preliminary data, the total GDP of the eurozone countries fell by 0.6% in the first quarter.

Experts note that the new restrictions introduced in Germany during the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic have negatively affected the country's economy. First of all, consumer demand has been hit hard by the restrictions. Moreover, the head of the Dusseldorf Chamber of Commerce (CCI) Gregor Berghausen noted that the German economy loses more than 5 billion euros a year due to sanctions against Russia.

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May 4. Oil prices returned to two-month highs

On Tuesday, oil prices started to rise steadily, climbing to $69 a barrel, the high of early March.

Market participants are trying not to get hung up on the worsening epidemiological situation in India, but prefer to focus on the prospects for a recovery in global economic activity as quarantine restrictions are lifted.

Brent is also supported by the position of the OPEC + alliance, whose members continue to gradually increase the volume of oil production. The Iraqi oil minister said yesterday that the organization will try to keep oil prices within normal averages and not worry about falling prices.

Also, the focus of market participants remains the negotiations between the United States and Iran on a nuclear deal. If sanctions against Iran are lifted, it will allow Iranian manufacturers to return to the world market.

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May 10. SpaceX will launch a satellite to the Moon, paid for by Dogecoin

SpaceX will launch a satellite to the Moon during the mission, which will be paid for with Dogecoin cryptocurrency. This was announced on Twitter by the head of the corporation Elon Musk. He wrote: «Mission paid at Doge. The first cryptocurrency in space, the first meme in space.»

SpaceX Vice President Tom Ochinero noted that the launch of a satellite to the Moon (DOGE-1 mission) «will demonstrate the use of cryptocurrency outside of Earth orbit and lay the foundation for interplanetary trade.»

The satellite itself belongs to the Canadian company Geometric Energy Corporation (GEC) and is a 40-kilogram device equipped with sensors and cameras. Its launch with a Falcon 9 launch vehicle is scheduled for the first quarter of 2022.

Last week, Dogecoin peaked at $ 0.69. Prior to Musk's appearance on Saturday Night Live, the token's value climbed to a record $0.73, but during the airtime it dropped 30%.

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May 12. Wall Street falls after inflation data

Wall Street indices declined on Wednesday after better-than-expected US inflation data raised fears of a Fed monetary tightening.

According to the US Department of Labor, in April, consumer prices rose at their most in almost 12 years due to increased demand amid the opening of the economy. Excluding food and energy prices, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the highest since April 1982. As a result, market participants expect a 0.25 percentage point rate hike by the end of 2022 after such a strong acceleration of inflation in April.

Uncertainty around the dynamics of rates and inflation is forcing investors to revise their portfolios, especially in technology stocks.

As a result, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.93% to 33.950.66 points, the S&P 500 index - by 1.20% to 4.102.33 points, and the Nasdaq – by 1.91% to 13.133.86 points.

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May 17. Russia in March retained the second place in oil production in the world

According to the Joint Petroleum Statistics Initiative (JODI), Russia in March again remained in second place in the world in terms of oil production with an indicator of 9.508 million barrels per day. The United States retained the world leadership, while Saudi Arabia remained in third place.

Russia remains in second place for the eleventh month in a row. Only in April 2020 Russia dropped to third place. Until this moment, the Russian Federation has also been in second place for over a year.

According to the JODI, oil production in Russia in March increased by 1.3% compared to February. The United States increased production by 11.2% in monthly terms – to 10.968 million barrels of oil per day, while Saudi Arabia – reduced by 0.1%, to 8.138 million barrels per day.

Oil exports from Saudi Arabia in March decreased in monthly terms by 3.5%, to 5.427 million barrels per day, and from the United States – increased by 7.5%, to 2.85 million barrels. In February, the Russian Federation exported 4.361 million barrels of oil per day, and in January – 3.986 million.

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May 21. Germany explained Europe's need for Nord Stream 2

Representatives of the German Bundestag said that the practical economic interests of Germany and other European countries have finally outweighed US political opposition to the Nord Stream 2 project.

The US State Department previously said that Nord Stream 2 AG, which is building the gas pipeline, is subject to sanctions, but refused to implement them, citing national security. White House officials admit that the pipeline will now be difficult to stop.

Moreover, Germany has already raised the issue of the possibility of transporting hydrogen through this pipeline. According to Heiko Hessenkemper, member of the Bundestag Committee for Economic Affairs and Energy, this should also become an important part of Germany's climate policy.

Also, Germany is confident that not only does it need Russian natural gas, but also other countries, such as the Netherlands, which used to be exporters and are now becoming dependent on natural gas imports. Politicians note that «the building blocks have now been laid for the normalization of relations and the growth of European-Russian trade.» Therefore, there is no doubt that the gas pipeline will be completed.

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May 24. Gold rises in price on weaker dollar and lower yields on US bonds

On Monday, the price of gold is growing against the background of a weakening US dollar and a decline in yields on US government bonds. The current quotation of the precious metal is $ 1885.35 per troy ounce.

Gold price continues to rise for the fourth trading session in a row. The dollar index again dropped below 90 points, and the yield on ten-year US Treasuries fell to 1.6% from the previous close of 1.632%.

Analysts note that falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar have created good conditions for a rise in gold prices. In particular, the weakening dollar makes gold more accessible to holders of other currencies. And the decline in the yield on US government bonds, in turn, makes them less attractive as an alternative in the field of «safe» investments.

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May 25. Wall Street grows thanks to declining bond yields

On Tuesday, Wall Street's major indices opened higher as the largest-cap hi-tech stocks strengthened, inflation fears eased and US bond yields fell for the fourth day in a row. Analysts note that the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds on Tuesday fell to a new two-week low.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 22.20 points, or 0.06%, to 34416.18, the S&P 500 rose 2.92 points, or 0.07%, to 4199.97, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 29.20 points, or 0.21%, to 13690.37.

The S&P 500 is within 1% of its all-time high of May 7. Moreover, it recorded 22 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 58 new highs and 19 new lows.

Boeing gained 2.4% after SMBC Aviation Capital agreed to buy 14 more 737 MAX aircraft. Lordstown Motors Corp. shares plunged 13.7% after EV makers announced much lower production in 2021.

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May 26. The oil market is growing after the publication of data on oil reserves

World prices for «black gold» rose on Wednesday evening after the US Department of Energy announced a reduction in crude oil reserves in the country. The current quotation for Brent is $68.75 per barrel, WTI oil is quoted at $66.23 per barrel.

According to a report by the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the United States over the past week fell by 1.7 million barrels – to 484.3 million. Analysts at the same time expected a decrease in the index by only 1.05 million barrels.

In addition, the decline in stocks of distillates and gasoline also turned out to be stronger than experts' forecasts: distillate stocks decreased by 3 million barrels (the forecast assumed a decrease of 1.9 million), and gasoline – by 1.7 million (with a forecast of a decrease of 0.61 million barrels ).

Markets also continue to monitor the situation around Iran's nuclear deal, assessing the prospects for the return of Iranian oil to the market.

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There will be no miracle. Experts predicted a weekly and annual scenario for the development of the oil market

According to analysts of commodity markets, the coming week for oil quotes will be quite stable due to the support of domestic industry statistics from the United States.

According to American statistics, the US black gold market is now experiencing an active reduction in reserves of raw materials to the lowest levels over the past three months.

Experts believe that such dynamics of the oil market indicates the rapid recovery of the world's major economies. And this, in turn, causes an increase in the volume of consumption of hydrocarbons. As a result, the combination of these factors partially equalizes progress in a new nuclear agreement with Iran.

At the same time, the strengthening of the US dollar and the psychological barrier of $ 70 per barrel act as a definite limiting factor for further uncontrolled growth in oil prices. To take that high, the market will definitely need more significant events and news.

Summarizing all of the above, in the short term (week from May 31 to June 4), oil prices for North Sea Brent crude oil will be in the $ 67-70 per barrel corridor.

As for the longer-term forecasts of analysts, experts here assume an average price of $ 55-60 per barrel for oil this year. According to them, the OPEC + agreement is still the determining factor for quotations of black gold.

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Analysts: It's too early to wait for Bitcoin to recover

J.P. Bank experts Morgan predicts that it is too early to wait for a recovery in Bitcoin, which is currently experiencing a fall from the $60K area to $ 35-36K.

Previously, analysts had already expected that Bitcoin's failure to overcome the $60,000 threshold would lead to bearish signals and further curtailing positions in this cryptocurrency. Perhaps this was a significant factor in the correction last week.

However, there are no signals of a long-term decline yet. According to experts, the price must fall to the level of $26 thousand before the cryptocurrency can reverse the main trend.

Over the long weekend in the US, Bitcoin plummeted due to the Memorial Day holiday: it traded at around $36,311 on Saturday and then dropped to $33,633. By Monday night, the currency recovered slightly to $36,833. Today's trading remained volatile.

Recall that in May, many factors influenced the bitcoin rate. Among them are negative tweets from Tesla CEO Elon Musk, as well as concerns about impending government regulation from the United States and China.

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Oil rises sharply after OPEC+ meeting

After the completion of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, Brent quotes rose to $71.30 per barrel. The last time such price values ​​were recorded in May 2019.

The OPEC+ ministers held the shortest meeting in history and within 15-20 minutes adopted the recommendations of the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee to maintain the planned plans to increase oil production in July. Production levels after July were not discussed. According to the deal signed a year ago, after July, the alliance plans to keep the production level unchanged until April 2022.

The OPEC+ Technical Committee, whose meeting took place the day before, came to the conclusion that a surplus in the oil market should not be expected even if the forecast for demand for the current year is reduced.

Thus, the decision was again made to gradually restore oil production: in May, the countries participating in the agreement can increase production by 350 thousand barrels per day, in June – by the same amount, in July – by 441 thousand barrels per day. In addition, Saudi Arabia lifted its voluntary restrictions: 250 thousand b/d in May, 350 thousand b/d in June and 400 thousand b/d in July.

In addition, market participants continue to monitor the progress of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal. Tehran said it hopes for a full restoration of the agreements before the expiration of the current government's term in August.

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June 03. Beige Book: US economic growth accelerates

The US Federal Reserve Beige Book was published last night – a document containing summaries and comments from the Fed on the economic situation in the country.

According to the report, the US economic recovery accelerated between April and May, despite supply bottlenecks, hiring new hires, and rising prices in many parts of the country.

In addition, the widespread use of Covid vaccinations and the weakening of quarantine measures had a strong impact on consumer spending: their growth is primarily associated with an increase in public spending on travel and restaurants. At the same time, the level of sales of passenger cars remained stable, and this is due to a slowdown in production due to a shortage of semiconductors.

In general, production in the country continues to grow, but many manufacturers report widespread material and labor shortages. The number of employees in the United States is growing relatively steadily, with the largest gains in employment shown in the catering and retail sectors. The growth in wages was also moderate, but it is noted that more and more employers have raised wages and offered bonuses.

The Beige Book is usually published about two weeks before the next Fed meeting. The next meeting of the FRS leadership will take place on June 15-16.

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June 04. The oil market is in the final phase of the growth cycle

Analysts believe that the oil market is currently in the final phase of its growth cycle, and prices may soon peak.

Norbert Rücker, head of the Next Generation forward-looking research department of the Swiss bank Julius Baer, ​​believes that by mid-year oil prices will move significantly above the $70 per barrel mark. And this will be the maximum level from which a long-term correction is likely.

At the moment, Brent oil quotes are trading slightly above the $70 level. On Tuesday, the price even reached $71.94 a barrel for the first time since March 8.

Experts believe that the rise in prices was promoted by positive dynamics in demand and likely delays in nuclear negotiations with Iran. Additional support to the market was provided by the results of the OPEC+ meeting, according to which it was decided to continue easing restrictions on oil production in July.

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June 07. The European Parliament named the countries to be admitted to the European Union

The head of the European Parliament David Sassoli in his interview called for the admission of the Western Balkan countries to the European Union. At the same time, the politician noted that such an enlargement of the EU would become «a positive project for peace and prosperity.»

These are countries such as Albania, North Macedonia and Serbia. The expansion of the EU's territory can have enormous benefits both for the Western Balkan region itself and for Europe as a whole, as it will help «ensure a stable, prosperous and peaceful continent.»

According to Sassoli, the countries of the Balkan Peninsula will be able to join the European Union as soon as they meet all the necessary criteria. And at the moment, all countries have yet to complete some reforms.

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June 08. Europe faces an unplanned gas shortage

Gas prices in Europe remain at an all-time high, although gas prices generally fall in summer. The reason for this was the lack of fuel and the impossibility of competition from coal.

In particular, spot prices at the largest hub, TTF, consistently exceeded $300 per thousand cubic meters throughout May and did not retreat from the highs in the summer. Yesterday's gas price was marked at $349 per thousand cubic meters. A similar situation on the European gas market was observed only in 2011-2014. Then this was due to high oil prices (consistently above $100 per barrel).

The current deficit was caused by supply constraints from Norway and Russia, the main gas suppliers. In Norway, preventive work has begun on the production infrastructure, and the Russian Gazprom refuses in principle to increase the volume of supplies.

At the same time, the supply of coal, which usually replaces gas in the energy sector, does not increase. Firstly, the price of coal has risen (more than 160% per year), and secondly, the fees for its use have sharply increased in Europe. Considering all of the above, analysts do not expect the picture of gas shortages in Europe to change before the end of this year.

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June 09. IRS wants to receive data on transactions in cryptocurrencies

US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Commissioner Charles Rettig said Congress needs to give the tax authorities legislative authority to collect information on cryptocurrency transfers in excess of $10,000.

Currently, more than 8600 crypto-exchanges have been created in the world, and the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market exceeds $ 2 trillion. At the same time, most virtual cryptocurrencies are created in such a way as to remain out of sight of the authorities. Moreover, there are more and more cases of illegal use of digital currencies by cybercriminals and hackers.

In addition, the huge revenues generated by the growth of crypto assets are eluding the IRS, creating a tax hole of about $1 trillion a year (the difference between legally owed and collected taxes).

Rettig suggests informing the IRS about cryptocurrency transfers in the same way banks do about money transfers, and brokers who report to the IRS about securities transactions. However, this initiative can be implemented no earlier than 2023.

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June 10. World oil prices accelerated growth

On Thursday evening, world oil prices accelerated their growth, approaching $73 per barrel. The market was supported by demand signals from the monthly OPEC report.

In particular, the price of August futures for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $72.90 per barrel, July futures for WTI rose to $70.64 per barrel.

Oil quotes support optimism for a recovery in demand, with traders assessing the June OPEC report. The organization noted that accelerating vaccination programs in many countries and increasing population mobility will positively affect demand in the second half of this year.

In addition, OPEC retained its forecast for the growth of oil demand in the world in 2021: the alliance still expects an increase in demand by 6 million barrels per day – to the level of 96.58 million barrels per day.

Additional support to the oil market was provided by yesterday's data from the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the country. Inventories fell by 5.24 million barrels, which was better than the forecast for a reduction of 2 million.

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11.06. ECB raised its forecast for GDP growth in the euro area

According to the latest forecast of the ECB, the growth of GDP in the eurozone this year will amount to 4.6%, which is significantly higher than the March forecasts. This became known during the speech of the head of the regulator Christine Lagarde at a press conference following yesterday's meeting of the Board of Governors.

Lagarde also noted that this assessment of the economy is presented in the baseline scenario of macroeconomic forecasts by the Central Bank for June 2021. According to these forecasts, GDP growth in 2022 will grow by 4.7%, and in 2023 by 2.1%.

Compared to previous ECB estimates, which were made in March, GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward (4% and 4.1%, respectively). The forecast for 2023 remains unchanged.

According to inflation forecasts, consumer prices are expected to rise 1.9% in 2021, 1.5% in 2022, and 1.4% in 2023. According to the March forecast, inflation was expected to be 1.5% this year, 1.2% next year and 1.4% in 2023. The correction of estimates is associated with the dynamics of energy prices.

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EUR/USD: Euro is trying to resist, while the US dollar is not showing vulnerability

Contrary to the US currency, the Euro has maintained relative stability for a long time, without making sharp up or down movements. However, experts believe that a lot can now change, and the downward trend can push the euro to the bottom.

The ECB's actions at the end of last week contributed to a moderate decline in the European currency. It can be recalled that the representatives of the regulator came to the conclusion about the exaggerated impact of inflation on the economy. According to Robert Holzmann, ECB Board Member, excessive concerns about inflation are groundless, and it is now under control. The current situation contributed to the fall in the yield of European bonds, pulling the euro.

The single currency noticeably fell for the first time in a long time, although it managed to recover. Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair lost 0.2%, declining to the level of 1.2135. The Euro also showed a significant and sharp drop. On Monday morning, the main currency pair was trading near the level of 1.2102, trying to catch up.

Analysts believe that the current situation indicates an imbalance in sales, as the current decline in the EUR almost completely offsets the recent rise. According to experts, the EUR/USD pair was dominated by a "bearish" mood at the end of the previous week. Such a scenario led to the fact that traders began to reduce their euro positions after two months of increasing them. Experts are sure that the strengthening of this trend will contribute to the collapse of the EUR/USD pair.

In this case, they consider the level of 1.2123 as a new resistance level for the Euro currency. The beginning of the new week was marked by a slight rise in this currency, which began at the level of 1.2092. Experts call it a weak support level. Taking into account the current factors, analysts recommend focusing on short positions in the European currency.

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June 15. China again threatens all world trade

The partial closure of the Yantian terminal at the Chinese port of Shenzhen is putting the entire global container trade at risk. Experts note that the consequences of such a failure could be much more serious than the blocking of the Suez Canal by the ship Ever Given in March this year.

Recall that the blockage of the Suez Canal affected 55 thousand TEU (a unit of measurement for the capacity of freight vehicles) per day and lasted six days. Problems in Yantian can affect 25.5 thousand TEU per day, and they have been going on for more than two weeks.

The reason for the closure of the terminal was the outbreak of coronavirus in the Chinese province of Guangdong, where the port is located. In addition to Yantian, problems arose in the nearest terminals Shekou (Shenzhen city) and Nansha (Guangzhou). It is worth noting that these are the third and fifth largest ports in the world.

A large amount of cargo has already accumulated outside the port, some of which is being redirected to the ports of Nanshu, Shekou and Hong Kong, but their capacity is no longer enough. Complicating the situation is the fact that customs requirements differ in Chinese ports, which also limits the possibility of redirecting cargo flows.

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June 16. The Netherlands intends to create a hydrogen exchange

The Netherlands, home to one of the world's premier natural gas trading hubs, TTF, is planning a hydrogen exchange. The project has already been named HyXchange.

The national gas company Gasunie conducted some studies, according to which it became clear that certification is required for the practical organization of a hydrogen exchange, as well as the creation of a spot market (at the very beginning of the simulation), a price index, mechanisms for balancing physical volumes and storing hydrogen.

The hydrogen price index is supposed to take into account the method of its production and the degree of the achieved reduction of CO2 emissions.

The initiators of the initiative, represented by Gasunie, the country's port authorities and market participants, are confident that the H2 exchange can serve as a catalyst for the development of the climate-neutral hydrogen market. Experts see the transportation of hydrogen from different production methods (both «green» and other low-carbon H2) in the same network, as is the case with electricity or gas. At the same time, its added value for consumers will be preserved thanks to certification.

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June 17. Investors prepare for volatility amid expectations of stimulus collapse

The Federal Reserve is starting to talk about curtailing super-soft monetary policy, which may cause high volatility in the near future.

The first increase in the Fed's interest rate is possible in 2023, and not in 2024, as previously predicted. Moreover, the regulator has begun debates about when and how it would be appropriate to start scrapping the massive $120 billion a month bond buying program.

Previously, it was planned that the program will continue until significant progress is made in the recovery of the labor market and in bringing inflation closer to the target level of 2%. And according to forecasts, inflation will well exceed the regulator's target, accelerating to 3.5% this year.

The question of when exactly the Fed will roll back stimulus has had a huge impact on financial markets: stocks have declined, the dollar has jumped to two-month highs, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has surged.

Experts note that the current situation is reminiscent of 2013, when the Fed unexpectedly for everyone put forward the idea of ​​gradually winding up the quantitative easing program. Bond yields rose sharply then, and the underlying 10-year yield jumped from an approximate 2% in May to 3% in early September.

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June 18. European stock exchanges decline on Friday

On Friday morning, the major stock indexes in Europe showed a decline after the comments of the US Federal system on monetary policy.

In particular, the British FTSE 100 index fell by 0.8%, to 7096.04 points, the French CAC 40 – by 0.04%, to 6662.86 points, and the German DAX fell by 0.43%, to 15659.65.

Investors continue to assess the situation in the markets and analyze the comments of the US Federal Reserve. According to the head of the Fed J. Powell, the key rate may be raised by 2023, which means a decrease in the flow of liquidity to the markets. Prior to that, the rate hike was not expected until 2024.

In addition, retail sales in the UK in May rose 24.6% on an annualized basis. At the same time, analysts predicted a growth rate of 29%. This can explain the strong decline in the FTSE 100 index.

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June 21. Crypto traders lost $1 billion due to Chinese bans

The central bank of China has called on financial institutions to fight harder against cryptocurrency trading. The People's Bank of China urged banks to immediately close payment gateways for clients trading in cryptocurrencies. In addition to this, the country's third largest bank has also imposed restrictions on clients whose activity is related to cryptocurrencies.

The digital currency market immediately reacted to this news with a strong fall, by more than 6%, and the capitalization of the entire crypto market dropped to $1.46 trillion. The bitcoin rate fell to $31,828. In the daily interval, traders lost about $1 billion.

The largest liquidation was recorded in the bitcoin market, and traders spent ~$618 million.The Ether (ETH) market records liquidations for ~$267 million, and XRP – for $43 million.

Moreover, the hashrate of the Bitcoin network also showed a drop. For example, today the cryptocurrency hash rate has dropped to 91 Exaches/sec. The last time the network recorded such values ​​back in November 2020. However, experts note that the reduction in the hash rate may be due to the relocation of miners from China: in mid-May, China announced a fight against cryptocurrency miners under the pretext of protecting the financial system and reducing carbon emissions.

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June 22. Oil prices rise above $ 75 for the first time since the beginning of 2019

World oil prices hit a new two-year high, rising to $75.28 for the first time since 2019. Since the beginning of the year, the price of Brent has risen by almost 40%.

The oil market was supported by expectations of a recovery in oil demand against the backdrop of a growing global economy, as well as a pause in negotiations on a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran.

The fact is that the presidential election in Iran was won by the supporter of the «hard» line Raisi. And given the fact that it has already been imposed by US sanctions, any deal with Washington now seems unlikely.

At the same time, the recovery of the economies of the USA, Europe and China is causing an increase in demand, despite the difficult epidemiological situation in a number of countries. At the same time, the beginning of the tourist season may lead to an increase in oil prices to new highs. Some analysts even predict the growth of Brent quotes to the $100 per barrel area.

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June 23. Moody’s: the US expects the market to fall

The representative of the international agency Moody’s, which monitors the state of economies in different countries, said that investors should wait for the fall in the value of major market assets by 10-20%.

Last year, the US cut the rate to almost zero to revive the economy and consumer demand. However, demand and inflation in the US are now outstripping forecasts, which could force the Fed to raise loan rates and reduce bond redemptions in the market to contain the rise in prices. And after that the quotes will inevitably collapse by 10-20%.

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics noted in his interview that the list of risky assets today includes both stocks and bonds, as well as commodities and cryptocurrencies. At the same time, experts do not expect a quick recovery of quotations on the stock market, because the value of shares is already at its maximums. It is estimated that it may take a year to cover losses after a market crash.

The Dow Jones posted its largest weekly drop since October 2020, shedding 3.5%. The S&P 500 experienced its worst week since the end of February, falling more than 2%. The Nasdaq hi-tech index also dipped, but it remains just 1.3% below its all-time high.

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June 25. Elon Musk contributed to the creation of a new token

Tesla founder Elon Musk once again took advantage of his influence on the cryptocurrency market, leading to the creation of a new token.

In his Twitter account, Musk published a harmless post: «My Shiba Inu puppy will be called Floki.» After that, the value of the Shiba Inu token (SHIB) rose sharply – by 15%. Earlier, the cryptocurrency dropped significantly after China took a number of measures to restrict mining and trading in cryptocurrencies. Then the price of Shiba Inu fell by about 50% from a peak to a low from June 15 to 22.

Analysts believe that the coin may fully recover in the near future. The growth of Shiba Inu may even surpass the growth rate of Dogecoin.

Meanwhile, 9 minutes after Musk's publication, the Floki token was created on the Uniswap decentralized crypto exchange and its price increased by 795% per hour, to $0.000000001100.

In early May, Elon Musk wrote that he was looking for a Shiba Inu puppy. Then the cost of a token with the same name increased by 68% per hour. Later, Shiba Inu was listed by two crypto exchanges Coinbase Pro and Binance.

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July 07. UAE will not support the extension of the OPEC + deal

The UAE intends to abandon the plan to extend the oil production limitation agreement beyond April 2022, unless the country's reference base to reduce production is increased. The UAE is demanding an increase in the reference base for a reduction in production from 3.168 to 3.8 million b/d.

The Emirates agree to increase OPEC + oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day from August, but believe that the plan for extending the 2020 agreement should be discussed separately.

Earlier, the UAE Energy Minister Suheil al-Mazroui said that the country is ready to increase oil production when the market demands it. However, at the moment there is no need to make a decision to extend the term of the OPEC + agreement until the end of 2022. «The deal is valid for another nine months, and we have plenty of time to discuss it later,» the minister said.

In response, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman called on the UAE for compromise and rationality to reach an OPEC + agreement on Monday.

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July 06. European stock exchanges decline on statistics for Germany

The main stock indexes in Europe on Tuesday decreased after the publication of statistics on Germany, which turned out to be worse than forecasted.

In particular, the British FTSE 100 index fell by 0.2% – to 7150.85 points, the French CAC 40 – by 0.46%, to 6537.05 points, the German DAX fell by 0.51%, to 15582.25 points.

Market participants drew attention to German statistics, according to which the index of investor confidence in the country's economy in July fell to 63.3 points from 79.8 points in June. Analysts had expected the indicator to decline only to 75.2 points.

In addition, the volume of factory orders in Germany in May fell by 3.7% on a monthly basis against an increase of 1.2% a month earlier. Analysts predicted a 1% growth in the indicator.

At the same time, the statistics on retail sales in May turned out to be better than forecasted: the indicator in monthly terms increased by 4.6%, and in annual terms – by 9%.

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July 7. The EC raised its forecast for growth and inflation in the eurozone

The European Commission has revised upward its estimates of economic growth in the eurozone in 2021 and 2022, while warning about the risks associated with new strains of coronavirus. The EC also expects higher than previously predicted inflation this year for all 19 EU countries, but assumes that consumer price growth will slow down in 2022.

This year, the European Commission expects the euro area to grow at 4.8% this year, much higher than the 4.3% forecast in May. Such a serious revision is mainly associated with the removal of lockdowns and the opening of the economies of the EU countries in the second quarter.

The European region is expected to grow 4.5% next year, higher than the 4.4% growth forecast published in May.

Inflation, according to forecasts of the European Commission, this year will reach 1.9%, compared with 1.7% in the May forecast. In 2022, inflation is expected to slow down to 1.4%. Recall that the target inflation threshold of the European Central Bank is just below 2%.

At the same time, representatives of the regulator note that inflation may turn out to be higher than predicted if problems with supply chains are more stable, and price pressure will have a stronger effect on consumer prices.

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July 08. Russia tries to rescue stalled OPEC+ talks

Russia is trying to help resolve disputes between Saudi Arabia and the UAE in negotiations on a deal to increase production in the coming months. However, disagreements are still relevant, and the date of the next meeting of the OPEC+ pact partners has not yet been determined.

And these disagreements between the two countries of the Persian Gulf may exert strong pressure on the oil market, where Brent prices have recently reached highs of 2.5 years.

OPEC+ ministers canceled talks on Monday after the UAE did not support a proposed eight-month extension of production restrictions last week. As a result, the countries were unable to agree on a deal to increase production.

Russia is counting on further growth in oil production, actively working with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to find a solution on the future of the deal. The Russian side hopes that the next meeting of the alliance members will take place next week.

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July 09. Oil rises after data on US oil reserves

The oil market is showing an upturn at the end of the week after the release of data on US oil inventories. According to statistics from the US Department of Energy, US oil inventories fell by 6.9 million barrels in the week ended July 2. At the same time, gasoline stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in oil reserves by 4 million barrels, and gasoline – by 2.2 million barrels.

According to the trading data, the price of Brent rose to $74.95 per barrel, WTI added 0.88% to $73.93. Prior to that, both benchmarks fell by almost 3% over the week amid traders' fears that the failure of OPEC+ negotiations could lead to an increase in oil supplies to the market.

The current decline in US oil reserves has bolstered investor sentiment that fuel demand is increasing as the US travel season begins. However, despite this positive background, the risks of a decline in oil prices are still relevant. The fact is that disagreements still persist between Saudi Arabia and the UAE when concluding a deal to increase production in the coming months.

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July 14. Bitcoin can grow to $37 thousand by August

On Tuesday, the main cryptocurrency disappointed investors again, dipping to the lowest value in 5 days. The asset price fell below $32 thousand and continued to move sluggishly down this morning.

Another drop in bitcoin occurred against the background of yesterday's publication of data on inflation in the United States. The price increase, which has reached a record level since 2018, may provoke a change in the current course of the US Federal Reserve in the direction of tightening monetary policy. And this is a negative agenda for risky assets, including digital currencies.

At the same time, analysts note that the cryptocurrency market is already very tired of bad news. This is evidenced by the amorphous reaction of the market to the latest unfavorable events for it. Investors, for example, almost ignored the next comments of the Chinese government about cryptocurrencies.

Traders also reacted coolly to the campaign launched by the United Kingdom, Japan, and other countries against the Binance cryptocurrency exchange. The "war" affected only the interests of residents of these states, throwing them problems with replenishing their accounts.

However, the mentioned battles did not affect the affairs of the exchange itself in any way. The dynamics of Binance Coin is proof of this: over the past week, the asset has demonstrated the best performance among the digital currencies in the top 10.

On this basis, some experts believe that the probability of the cancellation of the stimulating policy in the United States, as well as the work initiated by the Fed in the field of regulating the crypto industry, should not exert super-strong pressure on bitcoin and other coins.

This opinion is shared by the head of the Avanti cryptocurrency bank, Caitlin Long. Yesterday, she said that the US regulator is going to complicate access to payment systems and bank accounts for companies whose activities are related to digital assets.

On July 13, the stage of the public opinion poll on the document, the adoption of which was initiated by the Federal Reserve, was completed. This project will determine the principles on the basis of which requests for access to the services of the regulator will be evaluated.

According to the Wall Street veteran, the repression has already begun, but it will not directly affect bitcoin and other assets, but at the same time, of course, intermediaries will suffer.

The expert believes that if the document is adopted, the situation of 4 years ago may repeat, when many crypto companies lost their bank deposits.

The forecast of the head of the ICB Fund investment department, Aaron Chomsky, is also positive. He is confident that in the long term, the digital asset market is waiting for growth, despite the possible tightening of conditions for the crypto industry by the US Federal Reserve.

The expert is also optimistic about the medium-term dynamics of the main virtual coin. According to him, by August, the price of bitcoin can soar to $37 thousand.

The expert concluded that on-chain indicators indicate that the mood of many investors, including those who suffered from the relocation of miners from China, has changed. Traders have switched from selling to accumulating assets, which increases the probability of a bullish trend.

At the same time, Chomsky sees great growth potential in the main competitor of bitcoin. In his opinion, by the end of July, Ethereum is able to reach the $2,500 mark. The launch of the "London" update in the official altcoin network as part of its transition to the 2.0 protocol will serve as a springboard for the asset.

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USD plunges after Powell's testimony

The US dollar plunged on Wednesday after Jerome Powell's testimony in Congress.

During his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, the Fed's chair said that the US economy was still a way off from the central bank's goal. The Committee would discuss the possibility of changes to asset purchases when it sees enough progress toward its goal. In fact, the head of the Federal Reserve said nothing new. His stance on monetary policy has been the same since the beginning of the year at least. Therefore, investors did not expect his rhetoric to change in July. Besides, Powell acknowledged that inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months.

As a result, the US dollar index that measures the value of USD relative to the value of the basket of six major currencies went down from its extreme points. The index plunged by 0.36% to 92.42 points. The indicator has fallen to the level of 92.80 points for the second time this month. Thus, the downward momentum to the lower boundary of the trading range at 89.20-89.60 may well begin.

Ahead of the chair's testimony in Congress, inflation statistics came out in the United States. According to the latest data, the inflation rate in the US has hit a fresh high unseen for over 13 years. At the same time, a sharp increase in inflation came after several years of balancing near alarmingly low levels amid a rapid recovery of the US economy. This in turn triggered a spike in the US dollar to the 3-months high. Apart from that, the issue of tapering by the world's central banks has once again become relevant.

Another reason for considering this possibility came after the announcement of the Canadian regulator's decision. The Bank of Canada plans to reduce weekly bond purchases from CA$3 billion to CA$2 billion. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a halt to its pandemic-induced bond purchase program, which could lead to an increase in interest rates as early as next month.

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American stock indices fell 0.8-0.9%

According to CNBC, while many of the country's largest companies reported high net income and revenue figures amid the economic recovery, the stock market response has generally been subdued.

Statistics released on Friday indicated unexpected growth in US retail sales last month.

US retail sales rose 0.6% in June from the previous month, the country's Commerce Department said. Experts predicted an average decline of 0.4%.

Meanwhile, the consumer confidence index in the US in July fell to 80.8 points from 85.5 points a month earlier, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan, which calculates this indicator. This is the lowest figure since February this year. Meanwhile, analysts on average predicted an increase to 86.5 points. The Wall Street Journal respondents had expected growth to 86.3 points.

E-Trade Financial's managing director of investment strategy, Mike Levengart, noted that the sharp deterioration in consumer confidence appears to have overshadowed upbeat earnings reports and retail sales growth data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of trading dropped by 299.17 points (0.86%) and amounted to 34687.85 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 lost 32.87 points (0.75%), down to 4327.16 points.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 115.90 points (0.80%) to 14,427.24 points.

Over the week, the Dow fell 0.52%, the S&P 500 fell 0.97%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.87%.

Charles Schwab Corp. decreased by 2.4%, although the American banking and brokerage company almost doubled its net profit in the second quarter, while its revenue was better than expected.

Intel Corp. fell in price by 1.5%. One of the world's leading manufacturers of computer components is allegedly in talks to buy chip maker GlobalFoundries for $ 30 billion.

Moderna Inc. have risen in price by 10.3%. The shares of the American biotech company will be included in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, the index provider S&P Dow Jones Indices said. The changes will come into effect on July 21st. Moderna will replace Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. AstraZeneca Plc, a Swedish-British pharmaceutical company, is in the process of acquiring Alexion, with completion expected shortly. Alexion Pharmaceuticals was down 0.3%.

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US stock market crashes as investors worry about Delta variant spread

While the Delta variant of coronavirus is marching around the world and inflation is rising, hopes for the development and growth of the global economy are dashing quickly. Stock indices, oil prices, and US government bonds yields have already fallen.

A similar scenario played out at the very beginning of the outbreak of the coronavirus. Investors rushed to sell shares of companies that incurred losses on the introduction of quarantine restrictions. At the same time, they started purchasing government bonds and shares of companies that could benefit from transitioning staff to work remotely.

Meanwhile, oil prices went down after the oil exporting countries agreed to increase production.

All major stocks plunged: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.1%, the S&P 500 tumbled by 1.6%, and the NASDAQ Composite dropped by 1.1%. American Airlines Group and United Airlines stocks plummeted by 4-6%, while Marathon Oil and Diamondback Energy lost 5%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note posted its biggest decline since mid-February, 1.18%. Brent futures contracts plunged by 6.8%.

Candice Bangsund from Fiera Capital reckons that the new variant of coronavirus would postpone economic growth, which in turn may provide investors with an opportunity to buy shares of oil and gas companies, as well as manufacturing and financial firms, at a lower price

Economic recovery concerns caused turbulence in markets not only in the US but also worldwide. Thus, the STOXX Europe 600 sagged 2,3% along with tourism and commodity stocks. As for the Asian market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.8% amid a plunge in Alibaba and Tencent stocks, and the Nikkei 225 declined by 1.3%. Indonesia and Australia reported on a surge in cases of the Delta variant.

Market experts suggest that the fast spread of COVID-19 and low vaccination rates in Asia are weighing on investors' sentiment, urging them to shift their investments from Asia to markets in countries with higher vaccination rates.

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American stock indices rose by 1.5-1.6%

Statistics released on Tuesday indicated a significantly larger-than-expected growth in the number of new buildings in the United States in the past month.

The number of homes that began construction in the United States in June increased by 6.3% from the previous month to 1.643 million at an annual rate, the country's Department of Commerce said. This is the highest figure for the last three months. Analysts' median forecast was for a 1.2% increase in the last month, according to surveys by Trading Economics and MarketWatch.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average by the close of trading rose by 549.95 points (1.62%) and amounted to 34511.99 points.

Standard & Poor's 500 gained 64.57 points (1.52%), rising to 4323.06 points.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 223.89 points (1.57%) to 14498.88 points.

A number of shares, which dropped significantly on Monday, rose steadily on Tuesday. United Airlines Holdings Inc. increased by 6.6%, Delta Air Lines Inc. rose 5.5%, American Airlines Group Inc. increased by 8.4%.

Royal Caribbean Group shares rose 7.7%, capitalization of Carnival Corp. increased by 7.5%.

On Tuesday, shares of major American banks also rose in price: JPMorgan Chase & Co. added 1.9%, Bank of America Corp. - 2.1%.

Halliburton Co. increased by 3.7%. The American oilfield services company returned to profitable levels in the second quarter, its size per share exceeded its forecast.

International Business Machines (IBM) shares rose 1.5%. The company increased its revenue in the second quarter of 2021 by 3% compared to the same period a year earlier. Revenue growth was recorded for the second quarter in a row, which encouraged investors, as the figure was falling in the previous four quarters. Over the past 34 quarters to the beginning of this year, IBM recorded a decline in revenue in annual terms 30 times, writes MarketWatch.

Nasdaq Inc. added 2.1% in price. The exchange plans to create a separate segment for its private equity market in partnership with a group of American banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, writes The Wall Street Journal.

Comcast Corp. have risen in price by 0.8%. CEO Brian Roberts and Chairman of ViacomCBS Inc. Shari Redstone discussed the possibility of partnerships in the field of streaming in international markets, writes The Wall Street Journal, citing knowledgeable sources. ViacomCBS rose 2.3%.

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Gold is stalling, but it is saving up strength for a breakthrough

In recent days, the mood of the yellow asset has been very changeable. Gold fell on Monday, rose slightly on Tuesday, collapsed to a 2-week low on Wednesday, and again found the strength to get up on Thursday.

The decline in gold in the middle of the working week was significant. Against the background of the strengthened dollar and the growing yield of 10-year US bonds on Wednesday, the quotes dived to the lowest level since July 8, and barely managed to stay above the psychological mark of $1,800.

However, everything changed yesterday. The dollar was unable to maintain some of its positions. The opposite dynamics was also demonstrated by the bond yield. The indicator moved down after the release of data on the US labor market.

The published statistics turned out to be worse than forecasts. During the week, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States increased by 51 thousand and reached the maximum value since May of 419 thousand. Meanwhile, analysts expected the indicator to decrease to 350 thousand.

Weak data on the labor market indicate that the Fed will refrain from curtailing incentives and raising interest rates in the near future. This is a wake-up call for the dollar, but a good signal for gold.

Having received support, the yellow asset closed at $1,805.40 on the New York COMEX Exchange yesterday. The difference from the previous trades was $2, or 0.1%.

Other popular metals have also grown synchronously with gold. Silver rose 0.5%, rising to $25.38. Copper added 1.5% and traded at $4.34. Platinum jumped 1.4%, reaching $1,090.60. The cost of palladium gained 1.9% and amounted to $2,704. 60.

Analysts note that the general optimism in the markets contributed to the upward movement of metals, while for gold, on the contrary, it is a deterrent factor. For this reason, the asset has been stalling in a very narrow price range for a long time.

This week, the boundaries of the corridor have narrowed even more. Now, gold is swinging sluggishly between the marks of $1,795 and $1,805. Asset prices show extremely low volatility. However, according to experts, this is a positive sign.

ActivTrades analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa says that the current consolidation gives gold an excellent opportunity to recover in the coming days, but on the condition that the US currency does not strengthen.

Meanwhile, this morning, the metal quotes remain apathetic and remain stable. Prices that have not shown a single dynamics since the beginning of the week, and under its curtain can not decide on the direction of movement.

At the time of preparation of the material, the value of the yellow asset has decreased insignificantly – by 0.05%. At the same time, bullion remained above the key level, falling to the level of $1,804.5.

Analysts are confident that next week, the apathy should be replaced by more intense traffic. The meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is scheduled for July 27-28, will be able to stir up the quotes. Investors are waiting for new comments from the regulator on its monetary policy. Each meeting of the Federal Reserve has an impact on the dollar exchange rate, which is reflected in the value of the precious metal.

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July 26. China was suspected of wanting to completely ban bitcoin

Bobby Lee, one of the first crypto billionaires in China and the founder of the BTC China crypto exchange, says that he does not rule out the possibility of the Chinese authorities introducing a complete ban on the storage of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

In his interview, Lee noted that the Chinese authorities have declared war on bitcoin due to their unwillingness to deal with an unregulated financial instrument. Lee also advised miners to sell their hardware before it dropped dramatically.

At the same time, the entrepreneur is still optimistic about the future of bitcoin. Lee believes that the rate of the most popular cryptocurrency in the current year can grow to $250 thousand, and by 2025 – to one million dollars. The billionaire stressed that Bitcoin's success has never depended on China or any other country.

Recall that in mid-July, the bitcoin rate fell below $30 thousand. A similar dynamic was associated with news from China, which banned large financial institutions in the country from conducting operations with cryptocurrency. However, then the cryptocurrency rate recovered and approached $40 thousand amid growing interest in the asset from Elon Musk, Katie Wood and Amazon.

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July 27. Chinese stocks are hitting the worst crash since 2008

According to the results of the last two trading sessions, shares of Chinese companies listed in the United States have experienced their strongest decline since 2008. In particular, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks quotations of 98 organizations from China, fell by almost 15% in two days.

A panic sell-off has swept the stock market amid wider regulatory crackdown on tech companies and China's IT sector. Moreover, on Monday, the authorities announced a reform in the field of out-of-school education and the introduction of new requirements for food delivery services.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 4.42% to 25.060, while its tech index fell 6.7% to its lowest level in more than a year. The iShares MSCI China A ETF fell 4.0% and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 3.5% to its lowest level since October.

In addition, the Chinese application WeChat temporarily stopped user registrations, and the company that owns the service, Tencent, lost more than $ 100 billion in market value in two days.

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July 28. ME shares rise amid recovery in Chinese exchanges

Emerging market equities rallied Wednesday after declining 5% in the previous three sessions. The reason for the strengthening was the completion of sales in the Chinese stock markets. Now the focus of market participants' attention is the results of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, at which, possibly, signals about the curtailment of incentives will sound.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 0.5%. Exchanges in Turkey and Eastern Europe rose 0.4-0.6%. Additional support for emerging market currencies was brought by the general weakness of the US dollar and a narrow range of its fluctuations ahead of an important meeting of the regulator.

In particular, the Chinese yuan rose for the first time in five sessions, to 6,512.

The Turkish lira rose to 8.5665. The Hungarian forint retreated from three-month lows after the central bank raised rates by 30 basis points to 1.2%, stronger than expected. The South African rand rose to 14.8203.

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July 29. Data on US inventories supported oil prices

On Thursday, oil prices began to rise, supported by data on declining US energy inventories. The current price of Brent oil is $74.65 per barrel, WTI oil is $73.27 per barrel.

According to data from the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the United States fell by 4.1 million barrels last week – to the lowest level since January 2020. At the same time, gasoline stocks decreased by 2.3 million barrels, distillates – by 3.1 million barrels. Reserves in Cushing, where oil traded on the Nymex is stored, decreased by 1.3 million barrels over the week.

Analysts predicted a decrease in hydrocarbon reserves by 2.5 million barrels, gasoline – by 1.3 million barrels, distillates – by 1.6 million barrels. Experts note that the decline in oil, gasoline and distillate stocks in the United States suggests that energy demand in the country remains high, despite the renewed increase in the incidence of Covid.

At the same time, it is expected that global oil reserves will continue to decline throughout the remainder of this year against the backdrop of economic recovery in countries that are major energy consumers.

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