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UK Inflation Rate Fell to 3% in December

The inflation rate of Britain edged lower for the first time in six months in December, which was driven by the price of airfares and games and toys. The rate went down to 3 percent versus 3.1 percent in November, this is the fastest decline over five years. While the core measure of consumer price growth also decreased to 2.5 percent five-month low.

The British pound lost its strength on the back of the data publication and currently trades at $1.3772 as of 10:37, lower by 0.2 percent on the day. The numbers can be regarded to be the inflection point for the inflation due to impact from Sterling depreciation after the dwindling of 2016 Brexit referendum. The Bank of England along with the economists showed some projections for the possible downturn in 2018 and others predicted that the economy will be at the 2.4 percent level at the end of this year.

The drop recorded in December was mainly influenced by the technical adjustments of airfares within the inflation basket. However, the Office for National Statistics remains uncertain whether this move signaled for the beginning of a longer-term reduction in the rate. On the same month, services inflation plunged to 2.5 percent, which is the lowest in nine months.

The slackening inflation had a positive effect on households, especially those with low incomes as prices continued to rise. Economists polled by Bloomberg foresee some growth improvement in the currently weak household consumption by 2019. But, it will continue to sit below its recent average in both years. While predictions for headline inflations seems cool, but the Bank of England policymakers focused more on the changes in domestic price pressures caused by low unemployment and contraction of supplies. In November 2017, the BoE approved for an interest rate hike for the first time after 10 years and spoken about the further rate hike in the subsequent years.

According to experts, the upward pressure on inflation partially comes from the sluggish productivity growth which hit the British economy since the Great Recession. On the other hand, policymaker Silvana Tenreyro had a positive outlook during her speech on Monday. Tenreyro stated that the economy will grow in the medium term which could reverse the forecast for interest rates.

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Uncertainty of Brexit: Puts the Top Financial Center at Risk

Trading relations between Britain and European Union is still uncertain, which poses risk to London being the world’s top financial center based on the business survey on Monday.

There was a slowed growth in the financial sector based on the quarterly survey from business lobby CBI and consultants PwC for the three succeeding quarters in the last three months of the year. For two year, the flat trend or a decline phase has been prominent in the period of two years, although, the general transaction was steady as a whole.

Majority of the businesses are looking for certainty in Britain regarding its trade relations in the future, based on the survey done. A CBI Chief Economist, Rain Newton-Smith, said that clarity is needed to gain back business confidence which would dictate on the good opportunities against the bad ones as “consequences of failure”.

On Monday, it is anticipated for the European Union to approve criteria on negotiations as a transition period of Brexit until March 2019 that includes new trading rules.

The head of financial services at PwC, Andrew Kail, said that the transition period will probably take place but the financial sector needs to prepare to function outside the bloc.

They needed to have a counter measure to sustain its trading status and business model.

Other cities such as Luxembourg, Paris, and Frankfurt Dublin are attempting to gain financial services from London to proceed with their transactions with EU customers after Brexit. Paris could surpass London as the leading financial center in few years time, according to the French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, a statement on Reuters.

Gains from financial companies proceeds to grow in the final quarter of 2017, which is also anticipated to be similar the first three months of the year, based on the recent survey.

When it comes to the workforce, eighteen percent comes from the eurozone, which increased from 8 percent ten years ago. The municipal officials for the capital’s “Square Mile” financial district, a report says that almost one for every five workers in 2016 was from a European country, which has been the highest figure recorded so far. Meanwhile, around 59 percent of employees came from outside of Europe.

Another survey shows 54 percent out of 02 companies wanted to make it simpler to attract more workers for Britain’s financial technology or fintech sector.

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Canadian Free Trade Slow Down its Economy

The Canadian economy had an unfavorable situation in the previous year. The trade data was published yesterday that shows a continuous decline in growth and tried hard to gain profits outside the energy sector despite the positive exchange rate and the demand in exports of US non-energy products reduced in terms of volumes. Also, any recorded growth over the past decades was mainly driven by higher prices.

The inactivity of the past years is considered an enigma for policymakers which may question Canada’s ability to maintain its growth rate followed by the fastest 3 percent expansion in 2017 over six years. Bank of Montreal Economist Benjamin Reitzes mentioned that the country’s current trade environment remains fragile due to the sluggishness of non-commodity exports. Canadians desire is to become “perennial optimists” of international trading amid uncertainties arises regarding advantages of open economies.

According to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, trade is the main factor for economic growth, making his Liberal Party lawmakers advocates to preserve the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is currently in the seventh round of talks.

The trade performance of the country was dull except for oil and its non-energy trade deficit increased by $8.64 billion (US$6.9 billion) in December and $87 billion for the entire year. Generally, the number of export volumes including oil failed to sustain along with the imports which would mean trade industry was largely driven by the excellent economic performance last year thanks to domestic demand. With this, the Bank of Canada may delay the interest rate hike while evaluating the overall economic condition.

The not so strong non-energy trade indicates that Canada is highly dependent on oil in order to keep its trade balance from falling, even though Trudeau strives to turn around from commodities. Moreover, energy exports came in at 17 percent in 2017 and move higher by 14 percent in the beginning of the year.

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More Pressure Besets Chinese Local Government with New Bond Rules

Local governments of Beijing were pressured to settle their financial problems while a new rule on are issued on lending companies.

Chinese firms have to confirm publicly that funds gained in selling bonds should not add to local government debt and they are not siding on any government financing sector based on the given notice from the country’s top planning agency.

Moreover, corporations should not demand or accept any assurance from local governments on debt financing, as stated by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

Regulators are looking for means to have a better control in the midst of a wider systemic risk on the high local government debt and their transparent financing.

Authorities are trying to separate financial actions as part of their restriction, which is often related to stand-alone companies in a technical perspective. In particular, credit rating agencies should not associate the financial reports and project data in credit ratings work with the local government credit ratings, according to the NDRC.

The Chinese government is trying to instill on investors that actions will be taken if they did wrongfully.

It means that the government is not responsible on increase in debts by these firms but they are still expected to intercept to provide support for these companies, referred as local government financing vehicles (LGFV) in settling compensation concerns.

The local debt of China’s government increased by 7.5 percent to 16.47 trillion yuan or $2.56 trillion at the end of 2017, based on the calculations by Reuters, which is still within the target figure of the government.

Outstanding corporate debt amounted to 165 percent of GDP, which has been the highest among major economies and is mostly owned by the state.

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France Faces Structural Unemployment Issues

The jobless rate in France had decline generally, but there are no immediate solutions for skill shortages. French unemployment lowered down by double figures during the third quarter last year and resumed to drop until the fourth quarter. According to Bloomberg, the country’s unemployment rate in December 2017 was 8.9 percent while the fastest acceleration in employment creation since 1996. On the other hand, unemployment in 2017 plunge to 1.9 percent which is a major downturn in a decade.

Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron promised to lessen the unemployment by 7 percent in the year 2022. Structural unemployment is also one of the largest shortcomings during the Hollande administration in which Macron performed as the Minister of the Economy.

Nevertheless, France is also known for its issue regarding the country’s increasing skills gap. As mentioned by the Financial Times, there are about two million French workers with less qualification which became the underlying factor for structural unemployment. According to estimates, the job market of France was unable to appease the demand of 200,000- to-330,000 posts due to failure finding the appropriate candidate.

Moreover, the current administration plans to have a €15bn investment programme to improve employability skills especially for the below average job seekers and long-term unemployed. In case of the approval of the project, it will take two-to-three years to take effect.

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South Korea’s BOK Prepares for Possible Scenario In Sudden Fed Rate Hikes

The Bank of Korea is ready to face any unfavorable outcome following the policy tightening in the U.S. at a faster rate, according to the chief of South Korea’s central bank, Lee Ju-yeol.

If the Fed acted earlier than expected, it will have an effect on the global financial market, as well as local market. Hence, they prepared beforehand in possible scenarios, as told by Lee Ju-yeol to reporters in Zurich.

He also said that the central anticipated the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase their rate thrice in 2018.

Another factor that will be faced by Korea is the protectionist moves of the U.S. against South Korea, he added.

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Fed’s Tighter Policy Risk in Higher Rates

More demand for safe-haven assets and low productivity growth induce the Federal Reserve to keep their rates low, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve President, James Bullard, on Monday.

If the Federal Reserve will proceed with the rate hikes, a tighter policy would be ideal for the current economy. The goal of the federal funds would be around 1.25 and 1.5 percent and current rates still fall between this range as recommended with following a neutral rate that is kept at bay by various factors moving at a slower pace.

If rates have substantially increased without changes in the data, monetary policies would then become restrictive. There is a worry that the FOMC might go on “too fast”, added by Bullard. There must be support from the data to continue with the rate hike.

The Federal Open Market Committee is anticipated to increase its interest rates in March meeting at least twice a year, in reference to the latest December forecast of policymakers.

Bullard is known to be the most cautious among Fed officials when talking about rate hikes while the U.S. is deemed to have a low growth following a low-inflation policy and the rate should not be too high unlike there are clear indications that the economy has changed.

The term “neutral” was discussed during the National Association of Business Economists conference following the remarks of Bullard denoting that the monetary policy is a way to determine the positivity and negativity of economic activity.

Vague as it may be, the neutral rate is sufficient for the Fed in gauging the policy rates. Authorities see the present policy rates have to continue its accommodative monetary policies while inflation is still under composure.

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PBOC’s Lent 105.5 B Yuan in Rollover of MLF Due in March

The People's’ Bank of China lent 105.5 billion yuan or $16.67 billion to various banks on Wednesday under its medium-term lending facility for a year, according to released reports.

The new MLF loans have a similar rollover value in the 1-year batch of MLFs that are due on the same day. Adding 189.5 billion in the same tenor to be expired on March 16.

Moreover, the central bank added that they will avoid reverse repos on Wednesday morning.

On December 14 last year, the PBOC augmented their interest rates on liquidity tools to 3.25 percent, as well as, the one-year MLF.

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The Release of Government's EU Exit Analysis

The EU free trade agreements still expected to cost the UK by 4.8 percent of its projected economic growth for the next 15 years, based on the confidential government ‘EU exit analysis’ released yesterday. The decline in growth amounted to £55 billion of the British government debt by 2033, which could further negate the expected ‘Brexit dividend’ by the supporters of the EU exit. The report was issued by the department of Exiting the EU committee. Moreover, Brexit Secretary David Davis stated that the published document should be kept confidential but some parts of the material were already leaked to the media last month.

The alternative option led by Theresa May’s team is the “Membership of the single market” but was ruled out due to the possible drop in GDP by 1.6 percent. On one hand, the ‘no deal’ Brexit would return the UK trading with the EU-27 under the standards of the World Trade Organisation and would cost 7.7 percent of the GDP based on the government numbers. This could result in a surge of government borrowing by £20 billion and £80 billion, respectively. With this, there are assumptions that approximately 40,000 to 90,000 EU migrants are planning to leave the United Kingdom.

Included in the analysis is the projected economic benefits from the reducing regulations. The government of Britain would likely create its original version of impact assessment, however, some of the think tanks are expected to see potential gains around zero and 2 percent only of the GDP. Nevertheless, the report does not mainly evaluate the short-term economic effect of Brexit.

It further shows that the free trade deal with the United States would benefit the UK GDP by 0.2 percent in the longer term. While another concession with countries under the trans-Pacific and south-east Asia regional group such as Australia, China, India and New Zealand is expected to add 0.1 to 0.4 percent of GDP. Ministers of Britain are hoping to start the talks prior to the Brexit scheduled in March 2019, but this plan seems to be already abandoned.

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March Fed Rate Hike Marks an Optimistic Outlook for 2018
Full story at: https://goo.gl/b2M3WW 
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SNB Keeps an Ultra Loose Monetary Policies

The Swiss National Bank announced the decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and analysts expectations matched from the survey by Reuters giving a unanimous answer.

They reiterated the fragility or exchange rates after the strengthening of the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and began low this year.

At the same time, Chairman Thomas Jordan said that it would be too early to raise rates in Switzerland amid low inflation.

Another issue is the political uncertainty in Italy which will affect the eurozone in the future and it is important for the central bank to be heedful in this situation, according to an analyst.
Forty experts expect the SNB to maintain the target range to be 1.25 percent to minus 0.25 percent in three months on the offered rate of London Interbank, which has been the ongoing target for the past three-and-a-half years.

Also, they expect a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent deposits to be sustained where the commercial bank held a certain value as one of the important tools used by the bank.

Changes in the LIBOR target range is anticipated to happen soonest at the end of the year based on the UBS, while the median consensus deems to set at the end of next year.

Analyst of Credit Suisse initially thought the central bank to raise their rates as early as 2019 based on the economic strength of Switzerland, with a forecast growth of 2.2 percent this year.

The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe said, “Our base case scenario is where the ECB is considering a first interest rate increase themselves by mid-2019, and the SNB could move a quarter before.” Connoting the reaffirmation of central bank’s decision. However, she added that these two would move together as they are ‘economically interlinked’.

Her expectation is a gradual increase of rates until it reached around 1.20 against the euro in a year.

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NZ’s Negative Outlook on Business Confidence

The business confidence survey of New Zealand signifies a slowdown in the economy that could lead to the possibility for the RBNZ to reduce the official cash rate.

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr is anticipated to maintain the OCR at 1.75 percent at tomorrow’s review. Yet today, the ANZ Business Outlook reported a drop in the confidence level back to the post-election lows. It added more doubt to the growth outlook, as well as, the course of interest rates.

There are various possible reasons that induce the decline in confidence, including uncertainty of the policies in the new government, global trade fiction and effect of Mycoplasma Bovis cattle disease.

The ASB anticipates slow progress in business confidence in the upcoming months, given the ubiquitous support to the NZ economy.

Yet, the longer business confidence continues to be low and more questions will be raised in the economic outlook. "An OCR cut cannot be ruled out if this persists.", they added.

The New Zealand kiwi decline based on the survey results about the low growth situation.
Firms surveyed on their expectations on business condition representing 39% of businesses in total believe to have a gloomy outlook in the next 12 months, as told by the ANZ Senior Economist, Liz Kendall.

Since June of 2017, business confidence is headed for a downturn given strong “headwind” of the economy, she added.

She described it as “expansionary” amid the steadfast consumer confidence giving support but the economy may continue to gently lose steam in the next months despite being substantiated by fiscal stimulus and high commodity prices.

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Japan’s Industrial Output Dropped by 0.2% in May

Japan’s industrial output declined by 0.2 percent in May compared to the previous month, which is the first drop in four months, based on the government report on Friday.

The factory output was 104.4 in the seasonally adjusted index against the total of 100 in 2010, as reported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry. Previously, the recorded data was 0.5 percent increase in April.

Forecast of the ministry on the industrial production remains slow.

Industrial shipments dropped to 101.4 by 1.6 percent compared to the increased inventories to 113.5 by 0.6 percent.

Manufacturer’s expected outcome is gaining 0.4 percent in June and 0.8 percent in July, as shown on the survey by the ministry.

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South Korea’s Exports Declined in June

Exports from South Korea had fallen in June following a strong rebound in May amid issues on trade wars between Trump administration and China. While other major economies may weaken the Korean economy since it was dependent on trade.

Foreign shipments in June had declined to 0.1% versus the previous year to $51.23 billion, followed by a surge to 13.2% in the month ahead, based on the initial data released by the trade ministry on Sunday. The latest forecast showed a lower-than-median outlook for 1.5% drop. On the other hand, imports for June increased by 10.7% a year earlier to $44.91 billion, after the 12.7% growth in the past month.

The trade surplus tightened to $6.32 billion in June versus $6.55 billion a month earlier, while the median forecast showed $5.10 billion. The trade ministry partly blamed the sluggish June trade figures to lesser working days after the local elections this year and also mentioned that the rise in exports on the same month last year was because of the large shipbuilding contracts that offered a higher base for comparison and altered the data.

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July 24. US stock exchanges decline on geopolitical risks and fears for the country's economy

According to the trading data, the main US stock indexes are declining on Friday, as investors assess the risks of the conflict between the US and China and doubt the prospects for the recovery of the US economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell by 0.57%, to 26501.72 points, the broad market S&P 500 index – by 0.62%, to 3215.7 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index – by 1.47%, up to 10307.8 points.

The pessimism in the markets was fueled by growing tensions between the world's two largest economies. Today, China has demanded that the US Consulate General in Chengdu, Sichuan Province cease operations. This demand was made in response to the closure of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston, USA.

Additional pressure on the market is exerted by fears for the recovery of the US economy. Investors speculate that an increase in the number of coronavirus cases in America and a new round of quarantine restrictions may again suspend economic activity in the country.

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July 28. Fed extends lending programs until December 31

A two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve System starts today, following which the regulator will make public its decision on the rate and further monetary policy.

At the end of the first day, the central bank announced that it is extending operations on seven emergency lending programs by three months, until December 31, in order to maintain activity during the coronavirus pandemic.

These programs were initiated in March and April until September. Program extensions should facilitate planning for potential program participants and provide certainty that these programs will continue to be available.

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July 30. German GDP and quarterly losses hit the European market

On Thursday, the European stock market crashed after the publication of the German GDP report and disappointing macroeconomic data.

Germany's DAX traded 2.4% lower, to 12.516, France's CAC 40 fell 1.15%, to 4.901, and Britain's FTSE declined 1.65%, to 6.031.

Germany's GDP report reflected a 10.1% decline in the German economy, the sharpest drop in history.

Indicators of quarterly losses of European companies also had a detrimental effect on the dynamics of the European market. French carmaker Renault SA fell 2.8%, posting a record net loss of 7.29 billion euros in the first half of this year. Its German rival Volkswagen AG plunged 5.3%, posting an operating loss of 800 million euros in the first half.

Shares of the Italian oil company ENI SpA fell 3.5% after the company reported a loss in the second quarter and cut dividends. France's Total recorded an asset impairment of $8.1 billion in the second quarter, but retained dividends.

Only pharmaceutical companies showed growth. In particular, AstraZeneca gained 3.1% after reporting a second quarter net profit growth and testing of a coronavirus vaccine.

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July 31. EU GDP collapses by record 14.4%

According to the statistical agency Eurostat, the GDP of the EU countries in the II quarter fell by 14.4% in annual terms. On a quarterly basis, the indicator decreased by 11.9%. In the first three months of the year, the EU economy contracted by 3.6%. Figures like these signal that the European economy has entered a recession.

Earlier in July, the European Commission presented its forecast for changes in Europe's GDP: experts expected the economy to decline by 8.3%.

At the same time, the economies of 19 eurozone countries contracted by 12.1% in the second quarter and by 15% – in annual terms. Analysts had expected a decline of 11.2% and 13.9%, respectively.

The fall in all indicators has become the sharpest and strongest since 1995 – since the beginning of statistics.

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August 03. The PMI index of the industry of the eurozone in July rose to 51.8 points

According to the research organization Markit Economics, the index of business activity (PMI) in industrial production of 19 eurozone countries in July rose to 51.8 points against 47.4 points in June. Analysts predicted that the indicator would rise to the level of preliminary estimates of 51.1 points.

At the same time, industry PMI in Germany, according to final data, rose to 51 points from 45.2 points in June. PMI in France in July increased to 52.4 points from 52.3 points in June.

Analysts had expected the German index to rise to 50 points and the French to 52.

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August 04. Gold rises in price on increasing geopolitical risks

On Tuesday evening, the price of gold started to rise sharply, reaching $ 2.001 per troy ounce. The growth driver was fears of further deterioration in relations between the United States and China.

Market participants continue to follow the news around the TikTok app, owned by the Chinese company ByteDance. Earlier, it became known that US President Donald Trump announced plans to ban TikTok on the grounds that this Chinese company, by law, must transfer user data to the PRC authorities.

Trump's actions are forcing TikTok to sell its US assets to an American company, which was seen by the Chinese authorities as another provocation and led to increased tensions between the two countries.

As a result, market players prefer to ditch risky assets in favor of safer ones, which traditionally include gold.

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August 06. US unemployment claims data are encouraging

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who filed initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 1.186 million last week after rising in the previous two weeks. Economists had forecast a smaller decline to $ 1.415 million.

The number of secondary applications from those who continue to receive benefits dropped to 16.107 million, down from the previous week by 1.951 million.

On Friday, investors await a more complete report on nonfarm payrolls. The report is predicted to show that an additional 1.6 million jobs were created in the labor market last month, or hiring fell sharply from a record 4.8 million in June.

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August 07. US: 1.8 million jobs added in July, unemployment falls to 10.2%

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 1.763 million jobs were created in the nonfarm economy. This signals that the recovery of the American economy after the coronavirus pandemic has slowed in July.

Forecasts assumed growth of 1.6 million jobs. Despite the fact that the current data exceeded analysts' expectations, there is a decrease in job growth compared to the jump in the previous month, when 4.791 million people were hired.

The report also reflected the current state of unemployment in the country. To date, the unemployment rate has dropped to 10.2% of the total working-age population, after 11.1% in June. Analysts predicted the growth rate to 10.5%.

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August 10. US stock market opened with growth in hopes of new liquidity injections

The US stock market started the week in a positive mood amid hopes for a compromise on a new package of measures to support the population and the economy.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a deal with House Democrats this week is still possible, despite the failure of talks last week when the parties failed to agree on a $2 trillion bailout.

So, Donald Trump the day before decided to extend the payment of unemployment benefits in the amount of $400 per week and to suspend the income tax bypassing Congress.

As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 190 points, or 0.7%, to 27.624 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to hit 3.350, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 10.923. Shares of such companies as McDonald's Corporation, Eastman Kodak Co, Simon Property Group Inc also showed growth.

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August 11. The rise in producer prices in the United States was the highest in almost 2 years

According to the US Department of Labor, producer prices in the country (PPI) in July 2020 rose by 0.6% compared to the previous month. This was the highest growth rate since October 2018. Analysts on average had expected an increase of 0.3%.

Such jump in prices is mainly due to the rise in energy costs amid the relaxation of restrictions imposed in connection with the coronavirus pandemic.

Compared to July 2019, the PPI index dropped by 0.4%. Experts had forecast a 0.7% decline.

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August 13. US still can't agree on stimulus package

Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats in Congress on the next round of economic aid measures remain stalled.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said yesterday that the lower house is ready to negotiate with the Senate and the administration and reduce the difference between the proposed package of measures. The White House administration is offering $1 trillion, and the Chamber is offering $3.5 trillion.

However, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called such a proposal «misleading» and said that Democratic negotiators were not yet ready for a compromise at all.

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August 14. GDP of the European Union in the II quarter fell by a record 14.1%

According to the second estimate of the European statistical agency Eurostat, the GDP of the EU countries in the second quarter fell by 14.1% in annual terms. On a quarterly basis, the indicator decreased by 11.7%.

In the second quarter of the year, the economies of 19 eurozone countries contracted by 12.1% in quarterly terms and by 15% in annual terms. All indicators were in line with analysts' forecasts and the agency's first estimate.

Eurostat noted that the decline in all indicators was the strongest since the start of statistics in 1995. Thus, the European economy has been declining for two quarters, which suggests that Europe has entered a recession. In the first quarter of 2020, the decline in GDP of 19 eurozone countries amounted to 3.6% in quarterly terms and 3.1% in annual terms. The EU economy contracted by 3.2% in Q1 and 2.5% in annual terms in Q1.

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August 19. Gold prices dropped below $ 2,000 due to dollar stabilization

The price of gold dropped today below the level of $2,000 per ounce (to $1,987.93) amid the stabilization of the US dollar in the market. The American currency is awaiting details on the strategy of the US Federal Reserve to support the economy affected by the pandemic.

However, experts note that expectations of further weakening of the dollar may lead to the fact that in the near future gold will be able to gain a foothold above the $2,000 level and reach new record highs.

Tonight will be released the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which may contain hints of a shift in the forecast for monetary policy. However, no changes in interest rates are expected until the end of 2021.

Palladium lost 0.33% to $2.181.43 an ounce, while silver slipped 0.73% to $27.45 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.15% to $945.25.

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August 20. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded 1 million

The number of initial jobless claims rose unexpectedly to 1.106 million, according to the US Labor Department, fueling fears that the recovery in America's labor market could be delayed. Experts predicted a decrease in the number of applications to 925 thousand.

The number of Americans who submitted secondary claims for benefits fell to 14.844 million. The total number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 200 thousand, to 28.06 million.

The US authorities note that since the labor market is still weak, additional financial assistance will be required in the near future to support vulnerable families and the economy as a whole.

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September 01. German authorities have improved economic forecast for 2020

The German authorities have improved their forecast for the outlook for the economy in 2020 amid signs of effectiveness in efforts to support and stimulate Europe's largest economy.

The German central bank expects the country's GDP to contract by 5.8% this year, while back in April it was predicted that the economy would contract by 6.3%. At the same time, the new forecast still does not rule out the onset of one of the most significant economic recessions since the end of World War II.

Meanwhile, the forecast for next year was downgraded. Experts expect that the German economy in 2021 will grow by only 4.4%, while the previous forecast assumed growth of 5.2%. Also, the Ministry of Economy of the country notes that Germany, most likely, will not be able to achieve pre-crisis GDP indicators until early 2022.

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September 03. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell more than expected

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell from the revised figure of the previous week by 130 thousand - to 881 thousand.

Analysts predicted a decline in the indicator by 56 thousand applications. The figure has dropped below 1 million for the second time since March saw a sharp increase in the number of applications.

The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States decreased by 1.238 million from the revised figure of the previous week to 13.254 million.

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September 07. Johnson calls Brexit deadline

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that a Brexit trade deal with the European Union should be concluded by October 15. The politician noted that if the parties fail to reach an agreement by this time, then the free trade deal will most likely not be concluded at all.

According to Johnson, if the negotiations are unsuccessful, the UK will have a relationship with the EU similar to that of the EU and Australia, which is also a good result. In this case, Britain will have full control over its laws and regulations, as well as the conditions for the use of British fishing waters.

The Prime Minister also stressed that Britain is ready to find a reasonable agreement with the EU on practical issues, including flights, freight transport or scientific cooperation, even if a trade deal is not reached.

The post-Brexit transition period began for the UK on January 31, 2020 and will last until December 31, 2020. During this year, the EU and Britain should reconcile their future relationship. The next stage of negotiations is scheduled for tomorrow, September 8th.

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September 08. US ready to hit China's economy again

The US has said it is considering a ban on Chinese cotton products from Xinjiang. The US cited alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang as the reason for this move.

Moreover, D. Trump noted that if he is re-elected in the presidential elections, he will end his dependence on the Chinese economy. In his statement, the president stressed that he «intends to turn the United States into a manufacturing superpower, independent of China.»

According to the head of the White House, the US authorities will be able to return jobs from China, and companies that want to leave America will be required to pay large sums. Trump also said that today the United States is losing billions of dollars in the course of economic cooperation with China.

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September 09. In July, the number of vacancies in the United States increased to 6.62 million

Job vacancies in the US increased in July, with more workers leaving retail and professional and business services jobs due to concerns about COVID-19 infection and childcare concerns, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Labor (JOLTS).

The number of vacancies, which is an indicator of labor demand, jumped from 6 million to 6.62 million on the last day of July, the highest since May.

The JOLTS report follows last Friday's news that the US economy created 1.371 million jobs in August, after increasing 1.734 million in July.

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September 14. OPEC downgrades forecast for global oil demand for 2020-2021

According to the September OPEC report, the organization downgraded the forecast for world oil demand for 2020 and 2021 by 0.4 million barrels per day. OPEC now expects a drop in demand by 9.5 million barrels per day this year and an increase of 6.6 million barrels next year. In 2020, demand is expected at 90.2 million barrels per day, and in 2021 – at 96.9 million.

The deterioration is mainly due to a decrease in the level of economic activity in several countries of the Asia-Pacific region due to an increase in the number of cases of infection with Covid-19. Oil demand in India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines in the second quarter was much lower than initially expected. At the same time, the demand for oil in China in the second quarter exceeded expectations.

The organization notes that forecasts for demand may be lowered again due to the risks of a second wave of coronavirus in the world and the difficulties associated with vaccination. Moreover, the restrictions due to the pandemic and the operation of many businesses remotely could prevent the transport sector from fully recovering to pre-crisis levels next year.

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September 16. Annual inflation in the UK in August was 0.2%

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation in Great Britain in August in annual terms slowed down to 0.2% from 1% in July. This is the lowest since December 2015.

On a monthly basis, deflation was recorded at 0.4%. Analysts predicted annual inflation of 0.1%, and on a monthly basis – deflation of 0.6%.

The CPIH index (inflation taking into account the costs of homeowners for the maintenance of housing) for the reporting month amounted to 0.5% in annual terms against 1.1% a month earlier. On a monthly basis, prices decreased by 0.3%, while in June their growth was 0.4%.

Core inflation (CPI Core), excluding food, alcohol, tobacco and energy, rose 0.9% on an annualized basis in August after rising 1.8% a month earlier. The experts forecast an increase of 0.6%.

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September 17. The World Bank gave dates of the global economy recovery

World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart, speaking at the Trends 2021 online forum, said that the global economy will not recover from the coronavirus crisis until 2025.

Therein, in some countries the recession will last longer than in others. In particular, poor countries will be much more affected by the crisis, which could lead to an increase in the level of extreme poverty in the world from 8% to 9%.

In a June World Bank report, experts predicted the worst recession since World War II. According to them, the decline in the global economy in 2020 will be 5.2%.

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September 21. UK thinks about canceling Tax Free shopping system

The British authorities announced that they are considering the possibility of canceling the Tax Free system from December 31 of this year, explaining this decision by too large budget losses in case of a tax refund after purchases.

Such a plan by the authorities drew sharp criticism from the tourist industry. The fact is that canceling the Tax Free system for foreign visitors could cost the UK billions of pounds in lost profits. In addition, 70,000 jobs will be at risk.

Tourists from non-EU countries make purchases in the UK annually in the amount of £3.5 billion. In case of refusal to refund VAT, Britain will become the only country without Tax Free, which may lead to the fact that tourists prefer shopping in other cities and countries.

At the moment, a Tax Free deduction can be obtained for purchases worth 30 pounds, the amount of VAT is 20%. It is noted that items purchased in this manner should not be used in the UK.

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September 22. UK signaled new quarantine

On Tuesday, the UK said it intends to abandon the return of people to their usual jobs in an attempt to contain the rapidly growing second wave of Covid-19 in the country.

In addition to imposing curfews for pubs and restaurants, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called on the population to switch to remote work. Such statements may indicate that the country is moving towards expanding the tough social distancing measures introduced in the spring.

On the news, stocks in UK travel and leisure companies began to decline before they bounced back from the crisis (Ryanair, International Airlines Group and Air France). KLM shares plunged 4-5%, while shares in aerospace suppliers Meggitt, Senior and Rolls-Royce tumbled for the last to hit another new low for the year.

The British company Whitbread, which operates a chain of hotels and restaurants, announced today plans to cut 18% of its staff, or about 6 thousand jobs. The company's shares fell 3.5%, having lost more than half of their value this year.

September 23. US Department of Energy Oil Inventory Report

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, the volume of commercial crude oil in storage in the United States (excluding strategic reserves) for the week ended September 18, decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 494.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in oil reserves by 4.0 million barrels.

US gasoline stocks decreased by 4.0 million barrels. and amounted to 227.5 million barrels. Experts expected a 1.9 million barrels of gasoline reserves to be cut. Distillate stocks (including diesel fuel and heating oil) decreased by 3.4 mln barrels. and amounted to 175.9 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase in distillate stocks by 1.2 million barrels.

Oil reserves in the US Strategic Reserve (SPR) decreased by 0.8 million barrels. and amounted to 645.0 million barrels.

Cushing's commercial crude oil reserves remained unchanged at 54.3 mmbbl.

Earlier, the API Institute reported that commercial oil reserves in the United States increased by 0.7 million barrels last week, gasoline inventories decreased by 7.7 million barrels, distillate reserves decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and oil reserves in the Cushing storage facility increased by 0.3 million barrels.

September 24. Oil prices drop due to economic uncertainty and coronavirus

Oil prices fell on Thursday amid uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy and the situation with the coronavirus. The current quotation of Brent is $41.50 per barrel, WTI is $39.75.

Market participants are awaiting further action by the authorities of some countries amid an increase in new cases of coronavirus infection. Investors are concerned about the outlook for the global economy and oil demand amid the likelihood of re-imposing restrictions by some countries.

Additional pressure on oil prices was exerted by statements by the Iraqi oil minister that the country was counting on an agreement with OPEC + to increase oil exports. A week earlier, the minister said that Iraq had developed a plan to compensate for its overproduction of oil by the end of 2020 as part of the OPEC + deal.

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September 28. Swiss GDP declines at record 40 years

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) of Switzerland, the country's GDP fell by 7.3% in the second quarter of this year. Such a decrease was recorded for the first time since 1980 – since the first calculation of quarterly indicators.

The indicator was revised downward, from -8.2%.

The department also clarifies that in the second quarter, aggregate demand decreased. Personal consumption has plummeted 8.1% due to the coronavirus pandemic and the measures taken to contain it. In addition, the export of goods decreased – by 6.5%, the export of services fell by 15.3%.

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September 30. Oil inventories in the United States unexpectedly decreased by 0.4% over the week

According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the country (excluding the strategic reserve) decreased by 2 million barrels, or 0.4%, and reached 492.4 million barrels. Analysts predicted an increase in reserves by 1.6 million, to 495.9 million barrels.

Oil production in the United States for the week averaged 10.7 million barrels per day, as in the previous week. On average, over the past four weeks, oil production in the United States amounted to 10.575 million barrels per day.

Recall that in early September, the US Department of Energy increased the forecast for the average oil production in the country for the current year by 120 thousand barrels per day, to 11.38 million (compared with the August estimate), and reduced for 2021 – by 60 thousand barrels, to 11.08 million barrels per day.

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October 01. US industrial PMI declines unexpectedly

According to the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US Manufacturing Index (ISM Manufacturing) fell to 55.4% in September from 56% in August. Analysts had expected the indicator to rise to 56.4%.

In addition, the US service sector employment index rose to 49.6% in September from 46.4% in August. Experts had expected a decline to 45.8%.

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October 5. US services PMI gains better than forecast

According to the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index of business activity in the US services sector in September rose to 57.8%. The indicator for August was noted at 56.9%. Analysts had forecast a decline to 56.3%.

The employment index in the country's services sector in September rose to 51.8% from 47.9% in August.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services, calculated by IHS Markit and also released today, dropped to 54.6 points in September, up from 55 points in August.

Business activity in the US services sector continues to climb for the fourth straight month amid a gradual recovery from the coronavirus crisis. The service sector accounts for almost 90% of US GDP and about 80% of the country's working citizens.

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October 06. The EU is ready to resort to new measures of economic stimulus

The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said during her speech that the regulator is ready to resort to new monetary stimulus measures, including lowering the key interest rate even below zero, to help the recovery of the Euro zone economy.

Lagarde also noted that with the second wave of coronavirus in France and Spain, the prospects for restoring activity in the region look «a little more unstable.» The head of the ECB believes that the eurozone's GDP will not return to pre-crisis levels until the end of 2022, so it is necessary to continue stimulating.

So far, the ECB has refrained from further cutting rates, although it announced a new stimulus program worth about 3 trillion euros. The key rate for today is 0.0%.

Representatives of the banking sector have repeatedly stated that negative rates of the ECB negatively affect profits. Analysts believe that the rate cut will lead to a weakening of the euro, which has strengthened against the US dollar in recent months. And this, in turn, will reduce the concerns of the regulator about the high rate of the euro, which negatively affects large exporters and inflation.

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October 07. Futures on US indices are growing in anticipation of the Fed meeting minutes

Futures on major US stock indexes started to rise on Wednesday after a sharp drop a day earlier after President Donald Trump announced that he would stop negotiations on supporting the economy. Further trading dynamics will depend on the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal reserve system this evening.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.82% to 27928 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index rose 0.88% to 11373.88 points, and the S&P 500 broad-market index futures rose 0.83% to 3380.88 points.

Investors are awaiting the release of minutes from the Fed's September meeting, in which they think to find details of further prospects for the recovery of the American economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

Yesterday's decline was caused by US President Donald Trump's announcement to end negotiations with Democrats in the house of representatives on stimulating the economy before the November presidential election. The reason was a disagreement over the amount of stimulus: house speaker Nancy Pelosi is demanding $2.4 trillion, and the White house administration is ready to give no more than $1.6 trillion.

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October 08. U.S. unemployment shrinks amid slow growth in new jobs

According to the US Department of Labor, last week the number of Americans who filed initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to a minimum since the start of the pandemic – to 840 thousand people. At the same time, the number of applications for benefits remains at a level indicating a slowdown in the recovery of the labor market, as the virus epidemic has dragged on. Economists predicted a stronger decline – to 820 thousand people.

The number of secondary applications fell to 10.576 million, more than 1 million in a week.

The total number of people who have applied for all forms of unemployment benefits fell by just over 1 million to 25.505 million.

The ministry's report emphasizes that there is an urgent need for additional fiscal stimulus to help the economy recover from the recession caused by the epidemic. In September, only 661,000 jobs were created in the United States, the smallest increase since the start of the labor market recovery in May. In August, the increase amounted to 1.489 million.

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October 12. Saudi Arabia will host the largest banking deal of the year

National Commercial Bank (NCB), the largest Bank in Saudi Arabia by assets, announced the purchase of rival Samba Financial Group for $15 billion. This deal will be the largest in the banking sector since the beginning of 2020. It is expected to be closed in the first half of 2021.

The combined Bank with assets of more than $220 billion will be the third in this indicator among financial institutions of the Gulf countries, its capitalization will exceed $46 billion.

NCB will pay 28.45 Saudi riyals ($7.58) per Samba share, which values the entire Bank at 55.7 billion riyals. The deal will be paid for with NCB shares. As a result, NCB shareholders will own 67.4% of the combined Bank, while Samba shareholders will own 32.6%. The national welfare Fund of Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is the largest shareholder of both banks, will own 37.2% of the combined financial institution.

The Saudi authorities continue to act in accordance with the plan to diversify the country's economy and reduce its dependence on the oil sector.

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October 15. Germany introduces additional measures to combat Covid-19

German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to introduce additional measures in the country to combat the spread of COVID-19. At the same time, most of the new restrictions do not apply to the entire territory of Germany, but only to those parts where the number of cases of coronavirus will actively grow and reach 35 or 50 people per 100 thousand inhabitants.

If 35 people per 100 thousand get sick, then citizens will have to wear masks in crowded places. In regions with an incidence of 50 people per 100 thousand inhabitants, a ban on the work of bars and restaurants after 23:00 will be introduced. The number of people at private parties will be reduced to 10.

Merkel noted that if these measures do not help to reduce the number of infections, new tough restrictions will be introduced. According to her, Germany has come to a «decisive and critical phase», when the growth of new cases of the disease has already begun.

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October 19. US exchanges are growing on expectations of economic stimulus

Major US stock indexes rallied on Monday in anticipation of news on a new US fiscal aid package and the upcoming November 3 presidential election.

Thus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average grew by 0.3%, to 28690.91 points, the NASDAQ high-tech companies index – by 0.72%, to 11755.51 points, the S&P 500 broad market index – by 0.49%, to 3501.02 points.

Markets remain focused on expectations for a new stimulus package for the US economy. The Republican administration of D. Trump supports a package of measures worth $1.8 trillion, but Democrats, led by Joe Biden, insist on $2.2 trillion.

Over the weekend, it became known that the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi made it clear that the agreement on US fiscal stimulus could be concluded from day to day, until the presidential election.

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October 21. EU intends to prepare a response to possible US sanctions

German Foreign Ministry spokesman Christopher Burger said that the European Commission intends to consider ideas on measures to respond to economic sanctions by the United States by the end of the year.

The proposals imply the formation of an EU export bank up to the creation of a digital euro. This will allow the EU to be independent from the US financial system.

Moreover, the «pan-European instrument» should enable the European Union to respond to sanctions with retaliatory sanctions as a last resort. Also among the discussed measures – restrictions on the import of mobile phones from China.

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October 23. US exchanges are trading in positive territory on forecasts for state aid

According to the trading data, the main US stock indexes on Friday are mainly growing against the background of how investors assess the prospects for a new package of support for the US economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.13% to 28399.19 points, the NASDAQ high tech index fell 0.13% to 11,490.58 points, the broad market S&P 500 index rose 0.27%. up to 3462.8 points.

Investors also continue to monitor the situation around the presidential elections in the United States, which will be held on November 3. The final debate between Republican candidate Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump ended yesterday. According to the poll, Biden won the final debate.

Internal statistics had an additional impact on the US stock market. Composite index of business activity (PMI) in October, according to preliminary estimates, rose to 55.5 points from 54.3 points in September. The PMI index in the services sector increased over the reporting month to 56 points against the September estimate of 54.6 points. Analysts expected the indicator to remain at the same level. At the same time, the PMI in the industry rose to 53.3 points from 53.2 points, growth was expected to 53.4 points.

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October 27. US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined in October

According to analyst firm Conference Board, the consumer confidence index in the US in October fell to 100.9 points from the revised index of 101.3 points in September. Analysts had forecast an increase in the index to 102 points from the original September value of 101.8 points.

The release noted that consumer confidence eased slightly in October after a sharp improvement in September. And now, there are few factors that could contribute to the economic recovery in the final months of 2020 (especially with the growth in the number of coronavirus infections in the United States and high unemployment).

The index of economic expectations in the United States in October fell to 98.4 points from the revised September index of 102.9 points. The initial figure for the previous month was 104 points.

The index of economic conditions in the reporting month rose to 104.6 points from the revised September value of 98.9 points. The original figure last month was 98.5 points.

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October 28. Bank of Canada has kept the rate at the same level of 0.25%

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday kept its key interest rate at a record low of 0.25%. Earlier, the head of the Canadian Central Bank, Tiff Maclem, said that the rate would remain unchanged for at least two years amid a slow economic recovery after the coronavirus pandemic.

Representatives of the regulator also noted that in the next two years, the country's economy will experience excess supply, which will lead to keeping inflation below the target level (2%) until 2022. Also, the central bank stressed that the recovery process of the Canadian economy will be long and uneven.

The Bank also raised its growth forecast for the third quarter to 47.5% on an annualized basis. He also predicts stronger annual growth in 2020, although he lowered his forecast for 2021.

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October 29. ECB expectedly kept the base rate at zero level

The Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) at its meeting today kept the base interest rate at a record low of 0%, as expected by most experts. The rate has been at this level since March 2016.

The rate on deposits was also kept at the level of -0.5%, while the margin rate remained at the level of 0.25%.

The European regulator said it will keep all rates at or below current levels until inflation in Europe approaches the 2% target.

In addition to the rate, the Central Bank also left unchanged the parameters of the special asset purchase program Pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP). To date, the volume of the program is 1.35 trillion euros, and it will operate at least until the end of June 2021.

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November 2. Oil prices fall amid new quarantine measures in Europe

World oil prices fell to $36 a barrel Monday morning on concerns over demand following the announcement of new quarantine restrictions in Europe. However, during the day the asset managed to recover, the current Brent quotation is $37.50.

Experts note that the deterioration of the situation with the coronavirus is forcing the authorities of European countries to take additional quarantine measures, which negatively affects expectations for economic recovery and oil demand.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on October 31 stricter quarantine measures from November 5 to December 2. In the region, measures are being introduced that are actually similar to the spring lockdown. Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz on Saturday also announced the start of the second lockdown from November 3. Germany from Monday to the end of November switches to the «soft» lockdown for the second time since the beginning of the pandemic.

At the end of October, another government decree came into force in Italy, providing for new measures to combat coronavirus. In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced the introduction of a nationwide quarantine from October 30.

Analysts note that the quarantine measures announced in the UK and Italy only exacerbate the negative situation in Europe.

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November 3. Expert: OPEC+ countries should postpone the softening of the deal from January of the new year

Anne-Louise Hittle, vice president of consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, said at the International Exchange Forum that in order to maintain a stable market situation, OPEC+ countries should extend their current oil production cuts. Previously, the organization intended to soften the terms of the deal from January 2021, implying an increase in production by almost 2 million barrels per day.

The expert stressed that from the point of view of balancing the market in the interests of the producing countries, it is not worth lifting the restrictions in January, although such plans were fixed in the April agreements. Hittle also noted that if restrictions on oil production are lifted from January 1, a very rapid overstocking of the market will occur in the first quarter of the year.

On November 17, the next meeting of the leaders of the OPEC+ countries will take place, at which the organization will have to make the correct decision that meets the current conditions.

Recall that the new OPEC+ agreements started in May with a reduction in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day for three months. Since August, the alliance has continued to reduce production, but in a smaller volume – by 7.7 million barrels per day for the period until the end of the year, and then – by 5.8 million until the end of April 2022.

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November 5. Bank of England expands government bond buyback program to £ 875bn

Today a meeting of the Bank of England was held, following which the regulator kept the base interest rate at 0.1%. It was also decided to increase the volume of the government bond buyback program from 745 billion pounds to 875 billion pounds.

This decision was supported by all members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). At the same time, the increase in the volume of purchases turned out to be even higher than the forecasts of analysts, who had expected its growth to 825 billion pounds.

The Bank of England also released an updated quarterly forecast, according to which the UK economy by the end of the year will fall by 11%, rather than 9.5%, as suggested by the August forecast. The regulator stressed that the development of the situation with the coronavirus in the country will affect spending in the short term more than predicted.

Household spending and GDP will start to grow in the first quarter of 2021 amid easing quarantine measures, the Bank of England predicts. At the same time, in January-March of next year, economic activity will be significantly lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Also, the Central Bank expects British GDP growth in 2021 by 7.25% instead of 9% and by 6.25% in 2022 instead of 3.5%.

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November 9. OPEC+ deal parameters may be changed more than expected

The head of the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Prince Abdel Aziz bin Salman, at the oil industry conference ADIPEC-2020, said that OPEC+ could adjust the parameters of the deal to reduce oil production even more significantly than analysts believe.

The politician stressed that in conditions of weak demand for oil, the organization can not only keep the production cut at 7.7 million barrels per day (or more), but also extend the deal until the end of 2022.

Recall that the new OPEC+ agreements started in May with a reduction in oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day for three months. Since August, the alliance has continued to reduce production, but to a lesser extent – by 7.7 million barrels per day for the period until the end of the year. Further, it is expected to decrease by 5.8 million barrels per day until the end of April 2022.

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November 11. OPEC downgrades forecast for fall in global oil demand in 2020

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has once again lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2020. Now experts are expecting its reduction by 9.75 million barrels per day to last year's level – up to 90.01 million barrels per day. The previous forecast assumed a decrease in demand in 2020 by 9.47 million barrels per day – to 90.29 million barrels per day.

The outlook was lowered amid rising incidence of Covid-19 in the US and Europe, leading to new restrictive measures.

The forecast for 2021 assumes that demand will grow by 6.25 million barrels per day – up to 96.26 million barrels. Previously, the organization was expecting an increase in demand next year by 6.54 million barrels per day – up to 96.84 million barrels.

OPEC did not provide a forecast for its own oil production in 2020, but noted that in October, production of 13 cartel member countries increased by 0.32 million barrels per day compared to September – to 24.39 million barrels per day. Most of the growth was in Libya, Iraq and Nigeria.

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November 12. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell

According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans who filed initial applications for state unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected to 709 thousand. At the same time, the figure remains at a level that raises concerns about a slowdown in the labor market recovery by background of the resumption of coronavirus diseases.

Analysts had expected the number of applications to drop to 735,000. The previous figures were revised to 757 thousand. The number of secondary applications fell to 6.786 million, which is also slightly below the forecast.

Experts note that the number of initial filings is still close to the lowest level since late March, when the first wave of layoffs related to the epidemic hit the US economy. At the same time, the indicator still exceeds the level of applications before the start of the pandemic by more than three times.

The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ended October 31 fell by 436 thousand from the revised figure of the previous week to 6.786 million.

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