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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 13, 2016 The significant event on Thursday was the inflation report of the Bank of England. As we have expected, the Central Bank statements about the economy and the inflation increase were quite negative. The rate remained unmodified by the UK regulator at the level of 0,5%.
The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal motion and the Kijun-sen forms a descending movement creating a "Golden Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 16, 2016 The Service Sector activity in Japan has reduced more than expected last month. Tertiary Industry Index seasonally corrected displayed -0,7% contrary with -0,1% in the recent month. The experts anticipated a decrease to -0,2%.
The first support occurs at 108.20 and at 107.40 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.00 and at 109.80 subsequently.
The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen displays an ascending movement.
The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.
Andrea ForexMart
Official Representative
Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2016 Earlier on Monday, the dollar has stabilized as the sturdy US reports, Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment, reduced the investor's concerns regarding the development in the economy. The positive data also enliven the expectations that the Fed may brought up the interest rates as soon as possible contrary with what is expected. But later on, the dollar dropped to its low.
The Monday trading was frail with inferior volatility amidst the empty economic calendar. The financial markets in Germany and France refrain from working as they celebrate the Holy Spirit on Monday. We have not heard any significant report from the UK.
Meanwhile, the previous gains of yen in opposition with the dollar was lost. The reason of its fall was because of the unsatisfying Chinese economic forecasts.
The center of our attraction this week would be the Machine Tool Orders in Japan, the forecast of the Fed, Consumer Prices and the Industrial Production in the Us.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 17, 2016 We have not heard any significant news last Monday. Since it was the Day of the Holy Spirit, most of the European markets were closed to celebrate the event. Meanwhile, in the Bonds Market, the 10-year government bonds yield in Germany decreased which also lessen the charm of the European assets.
The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating "Dead Cross". The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.
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Fundamental Analysis: May 18, 2016 We heard a lot of economic news on Tuesday, US data being the main driver of the day. The States has given the report of Core Consumer Price Index to the public wherein the data came in at 0,2% which occur simultaneously with the report and also the Industrial Production which reached 0,7% against the reported 0,3%. The Federal Reserve representatives, Williams and Lockhart gave their statements. The idea of raising the rates twice or thrice this year was supported by Williams. Meanwhile, Lockhart stated that the negative rates scenario was not intended.
As for the Eurozone, it only published their positive Trade Balance for March wherein the data came in at 28.6 billion against the report of 22.5 billion.
Since September last year, the inflation in the UK decelerated in April for the first time which also caused the pound to lessen its gains contrary with the dollar. After increasing by 0,5% in March, the Retail Price Index grew by 0,3% y/y. The inflation was expected to stay at 0,5% by the traders, but the British inflation has been low from the target level of 2% for more than 2 years.
In March, the Japanese Industrial Production aggressively increased wherein the data came in at 3,8% against the previous 3,6%. While the Capacity Utilization grew from -5,4% to 3,2% in March. But still these statistics could not support the yen.
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 18, 2016 Bonds Market. The 10-year UK government bonds yield decreased which lessen the investments of the British assets. The UK presented Consumer Price index for April wherein the data came in at 0,3% y/y against the report of 0,5% y/y.
The first support occurs at 1.4400 and at 1.4320 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4560 subsequently.
The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Dead Cross".
The MACD indicator is in an impartial location. The price is correcting.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 19, 2016 As the expectations that the Fed would heighten the rates is growing, the US dollar increased contrary to the euro on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index for April reached 0,2% against the expected -0,2% as published by the Euro zone.
The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.
A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price may be found below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending movement. This activity will remain until the price goes below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 20, 2016 Bonds Market. The interest in the European assets lessened due to the decline in the 10-year German government bonds yield. Protocols were presented by the ECB. The euro could not be sustained by the issued ECB minutes.
The primary support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1040 subsequently. While the primary resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.
An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is correcting.
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 23, 2016 The Aussie has found support at the 0.72 level after moving sideways since Thursday which we view as neutral. Our perspective is unlikely to change in the immediate future as there is little data scheduled to be released this week that will impact AUD/USD.
After closing in New York at 0.7228, the pair is now trading at 0.7250 after hitting an intraday high of 0.7261 in earlier session.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak later today in Sydney. He is expected to to touch on Australia’s lagging inflation and labor market. Stevens may also hint the board members’ sentiment on an interest rate hike this month. The business capital expenditure report for the first quarter will be out this week, but low volatility is expected as markets’ focus are now on the country’s inflation.
On the US side, the FOMC minutes last week implied an earlier rate increase in June, ahead of the September monetary policy meeting where the benchmark rate is expected to rise.
The first support occurs at 0.7225 and 0.7210 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 0.7333 and 0.7436 subsequently.
The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is climbing.
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: May 23, 2016 Fed’s hawkish sentiment evident in its FOMC meeting minutes released last week fairly strengthened the dollar against other currencies even the reasonably strong NZD. We can see that the buying interest in the NZD/USD will stay in the near term.
The pair is trading at 0.6797 in Wellington. Volatility is expected on Thursday as the New Zealand government announces the annual budget which include a possible revised inflation forecast. Data released last week showed that inflation was at 1.6 percent.
The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6594 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 24, 2016 A slew of hawkish statements from Fed officials weighed in on the EUR/USD, paired with the Germany’s disappointing manufacturing PMI.
Philadelphia Fed President Harker and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that a June rate hike is “appropriate” given the US’ strong economic data. An increase will also allow Fed enough space to lower it should financial instability hit the country. The two officials said that more rate hike is possible next year if favorable US data continue.
Meanwhile, Germany, the Eurozone’s biggest economy, reported a lower slower manufacturing PMI growth. The latest release grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, similar to the previous month’s 1.3 percent. Economists forecasted a 1.6 percent rise. The pair is now trading at 1.1185, topping at 1.1706 in earlier session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is declining.
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: May 25, 2016 NZD/USD is receiving downward pressure from rosy US data, shrouding a similarly upbeat trade data from the kiwi dollar.
New Zealand’s trade balance in April amounted to $292 million from the previous month’s $117 million, beating the forecast $60 million by leaps. This is due to exports of $4.30 billion, a 10 million increase from March’s $4.20 billion, while imports were down to $4.01 billion from $4.09 billion.
Home sales in the US is the highest in eight years, with 619,000 more houses sold from the previous month’s 531,000. Only 523,000 were expected in April. This is a 16.6 percent growth from a decline of -1.3 percent in March.
Increasing talks about a Fed rate hike in June is also boosting the buying interest around the USD, sending the bears toward the bird. As the market digests Fed officials’ hawkish statements on Monday, a bearish outlook on the NZD will remain.
The first support is at 0.6716 and 0.6576 while the first resistance is at 0.6823 and 0.7054. The spot exchange is currently 0.6754.
The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is rising.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 25, 2016 The Bonds market visualized an increasing optimism as the 10-years German government bonds yield increased which also heightened the charm of the European assets. The center of the attraction was the Economic Sentiment in May (the ZEW Institute). The index aggressively decreased which weakened the euro wherein the data came in at 6.4 against the expected 12.0.
The first support occurs at 1.1130 and at 1.1070 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.1200 and at 1.1250 subsequently.
An inveterate and a solid sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a descending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This activity will remain until the price is below the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: May 26, 2016 The decreasing doubts regarding the result of the referendum cause the pound to come nearly to its high for the week. The volume of Brexit opponents is 55% against 42% who want to exit the EU, according to the recent poll.
The first support occurs at 1.4670 and at 1.4560 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4760 and at 1.4880 subsequently.
An inveterate and a solid buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen ascends in movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross". This activity will remain until the price is over the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.
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Fundamental Analysis: May 27, 2016 In the midst of positive economic forecasts, the dollar reinforced its positions. As stated by the Fed, the US regulator may heightened the rates at its conference this coming June. Meanwhile, in the economic news, the United States presented the Initial Jobless Claims wherein the volume appeared at 268,000 against the report of 275,000.
The euro was bolstered by the agreement happened between the Eurozone and the Greece. The latter attained an agreement with its creditors and shall take a new tranche of loans in the amount of 10 billion euro.
It has been inveterated that the recoupment of the British economy became sluggish by the second Gross Domestic Product estimate for the first quarter in the UK. The economy showed a growth by 0,4% in the first quarter from 0,6% in Q4 2015. The economy of Britain encountered a difficulty with a devitalized growth in emerging markets particularly in China. The approaching referendum also decelerated the growth.
The dollar stick around in a range waiting for the statement of Janet Yellen. The market is anticipating hints from the regulator about the probable rate hike in June. The yen raised and bereaved the dollar from its recent gains. The investors involuntarily close positions before there are any probable risk that may occur.
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: May 27, 2016 The yen deprived from growing on Thursday. But as the corporate services price index grew, it heightened precociously. And as presumed, the Corporate Service Price index grew by 0,2% y/y. The USA presented the Durable Goods Orders wherein the data showed 0,4% against the expected 0,3% and Initial Jobless Claims which showed 268,000 against the report 275,000.
The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.
The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen form a horizontal movement creating a "Golden Cross".
The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is consolidating.
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 30, 2016 AUD/USD is taking a beating after Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that a rate hike is “appropriate in the next coming months,” fueling speculations of a rate hike in June’s monetary policy meeting.
Bears are surrounding the Australian dollar as high it loses steam, trading at 0.7175 from last week’s 0.72 level. The MACD indicator is in neutral position.
The first support occurs at 0.7065 and 0.6827, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7243 and 0.7331 subsequently.
The pair is in for a volatile ride this week with a deluge of data coming from both sides. Australia’s Company Gross Operating Profits slowed down again to -4.7 percent in the first quarter after sliding by 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. This indicates weakening profits of private firms.
New home sales in April declined by 4.7 percent from the previous reading’s 8.9 percent increase. The country’s current account and number of building approvals will follow today, while trade balance, retail data, and GDP will be released on Tuesday.
On the greenback’s side, consumer confidence and Core CPE Price Index will start the week of significant volatility, trailing to manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls in the later part of the week. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to deliver speeches.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 31, 2016 Upbeat data from Eurozone’s two biggest economies helped cushion the blow of a firming USD against the Euro as the bloc currency records session highs, although the pair is still underperforming.
Preliminary CPI of Germany, the EU’s largest economy, was in line with the forecast 0.3 percent growth from the previous reading’s decline of 0.4 percent. France, the second largest, recorded a higher-than-expected 0.6 percent GDP for the first three months of the year, beating the 0.5 percent expectations.
The Eurozone Economic Sentiment report also showed that consumers have a positive outlook on the economy. It printed 104.7 points in May, up from 104.0 last month.
However, these are not enough to offset the bulls surrounding the USD after the Fed Chairwoman herself said that a rate hike is appropriate given the US’ economic conditions.
The pair is now trading at 1.1149, peaking at 1.1156 in early European session. The first support is at 1.1067 and 1.0937 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1215 and 1.1357 subsequently.
The MACD indicator is in negative position. The price is rising.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 1, 2016 This week's primary event would be the conference of the ECB in the Eurozone. There are assumptions that the European regulator will leave its monetary policy unchanged.
The currency pair tried to regain on Tuesday. The resistance occurs at 1.1200 while the support stands at 1.1130.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral zone which does not provide clear signals.
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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: June 1, 2016 The pound managed to recover from its lows. Generally, the dollar stayed solid contrary to the pound as an aftermath of Janet Yellen's speech last Friday. The market hopes for new drivers for a further activity.
The resistance occurs at the level of 1.4560 while the support stands at 1.4480.
The MACD indicator is in a negative location which signifies to sell. Meanwhile, the RSI indicator is near to the oversold zone.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 6, 2016 The poor data of Non-farm Payrolls could be a factor of the Fed rate hike delay. The EUR/USD pair bounced up last Friday. It surpassed the levels of 1.1200, 1.1250 and 1.1300 and reached the level of 1.3730. This cause the pair to look bullish.
The resistance occurs at the level of 1.1370 while the support stands at 1.1300.
The MACD indicator is in a positive location, which signifies growth and is bullish. The RSI approached the overbought level of 70.
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 7, 2016 The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.
The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.
Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.
A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.
The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.
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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: June 9, 2016 The RBNZ propelled the NZD to a 12-month high, pushing it through 0.71 levels against the USD after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.25 percent. The bird has been hovering at 69 cents for quite a long time.
Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler left the door open for monetary easing and promised it to be “accommodative.” The central bank is specially keeping an eye on low inflation and expects it to firm and reach their target in the long term, although short-term inflation has been steady.
“We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures,” the bank said in a statement.
Uncertainty in the bank’s statements are keeping us from declaring the upside bullish, but a rate above 0.7146 will shift our outlook to a bullish one. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7125.
The first support is at 0.6960 and 0.6910 subsequently, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7045 and 0.7080 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising.
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Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 15, 2016 A latest survey showing that Vote Leave is points ahead dragged the British pound to 1.41 cents against a stronger US dollar. As the EU referendum approaches, the sterling is swaying nonstop due to voters’ sentiment and the release of poll results after another.
TNS revealed yesterday that 47 percent of respondents wanted the UK to leave the EU, while only 40 percent wanted to remain a member of the bloc. GBP/USD fell to two-month lows.
UK inflation in May was also on the red, printing only a 0.3 percent rise, similar to the same period last year. Analysts were expecting a 0.4 percent growth. In m/m terms, CPI also disappointed as it climbed by 0.2 percent, missing the forecasted 0.3 percent. Transport costs rose by 0.9 percent in Mayi from the previous month but was offset by declines in food and clothing.
As we predicted, CPI didn’t have significant effect on the sterling especially because a Brexit poll was released in the same day. The Bank of England’s decision on its interest rate is next on the GBP’s economic headline.
The USD performed slightly stronger than its counterparts with the release of positive retail sales which hit 0.5 percent m/m against a 0.3 percent forecast. Core retail sales was in line with expectations at 0.4 percent. Both exports and imports at 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent respectively eclipsed their forecasted rates.
Atlanta Fed upgraded its GDP forecast for Q2 to 2.8 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Strong retail sales was also viewed as a signal that consumer expenditure will most likely print robust numbers.
We are looking at an immediate support of 1.4089 and 1.4040 subsequently, while resistance is at 1.4265 and 1.4350. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 1.4142 and rising.
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 21, 2016 The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.
Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.
Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.
The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.
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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: June 22, 2016 EUR/USD was hit with profit-taking and a warning from ECB president Mario Draghi that another stimulus is on the way. The euro retreated to 1.12 cents after reaching 1.13 in the past days due to a firming ‘Bremain’ public sentiment. The pair is trading at 1.1272.
Draghi said that more stimulus is on the way as the ECB sees inflation rate missing the 2 percent target until 2018. Inflation is predicted to reach 1.3 percent in 2017 and 1.6 percent in 2018.
On the data front, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment for June was at 19.2, largely exceeding the predicted 4.7 increase. The country’s current conditions grew to 54.5 from 53.1 in May, while the Eurozone’s economic sentiment was up to 20.2, surpassing the 15.3 expected rate.
The USD is also taking a beating from Yellen’s statement that shows Fed’s worry over the labor market. The Fed chairwoman effectively reduced the possibility of a rate hike in its next monetary meeting in July.
EUR/USD is still on the bullish side but a drop below the immediate support of 1.1240 will move it to a neutral position, with the next support at 1.1213. The first resistance is at 1.1291 and 1.1350 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a positive location.
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Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: June 23, 2016 GBP broke through 1.48 in early European session, peaking at 1.4830 due to two polls that showed the Remain camp leading by several points. This is the sterling’s highest rate against the USD in 2016.
According to YouGov, the Remain camp gathered 51 percent of voters while the Brexit camp recorded 49 percent. ComRes, another major polling firm, revealed similar results with the Bremain leading by 6 percent at 48 percent while the Brexit side was at 42 percent. GBP/USD is now in a consolidating phase as traders remain cautious in the hours leading to the referendum.
In the US, traders are going short on the USD as they wait for the huge impact the referendum’s result could bring. It is understood that the result along with the outcome of Fed’s assessment on a soft labor market will largely affect the interest rate in July.
Dutch bank ING predicted that a Bremain will propel the GBP/USD to the 1.52 level while a Brexit will push it to as low as 1.30.
The first support occurs at 1.4700 and 1.4659 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 1.4830 and 1.4897. The MACD indicator is in positive location.
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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: June 30, 2016 Followed by the Consumer Confidence report in the Eurozone, the euro currency has not made any alteration with its positions. Concurrently, the ECB will not whisk with the further monetary policy easing. There should be a proof that the economy of the Eurozone is declining before it implements any action.
Slowly, the euro managed to step up continuously. It is showed in the 4-hour chart that the instrument stayed in a downside channel and the euro increased to its upper boundary. The pair was likely to regain 0.47% and has made a new local high at 1.1130. The resistance occurs at 1.1130 while the support stands at 1.1000.
The MACD indicator was kept standing on a negative location while its histogram increased. The indicator will also give buy signals while its histogram increases. RSI indicator is in an impartial location and its growth from the oversold area is a buy signal.
The price is under the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which goes downwards indicating a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a sturdy resistance for the euro which it touched yesterday. The EUR/USD tries to revert into the ascending channel on the daily chart.
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 4, 2016 The Japanese government believed that the cause of the household spending enfeeblement in May was the continuous breakdown of the consumer prices. This event leads to a further compression to the Bank of Japan which is discontented with the present sinewy of the Japanese yen.
The instrument reduced from a local high. The pair is directed to revert under 102.50. The resistance occurs at 103.50 while the support resides at 102.50.
We should notice that the expansion of the MACD indicator decelerated. It has stayed in the negative location which signifies a sell signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is in a neutral location and doesn't provide any signals. The USD/JPY pair is under the Moving Averages (50,100 and 200) which goes on a descending movement. The pair tested the 50-day movement and slip downwards. The 50-day movement is the nearest resistance for the pair.
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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016 After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement.
A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.
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Fundamental Analysis: July 12, 2016 The exchange rate of British pound to Euro (EUR/GBP) plunged a significant dip of 9 points just as euro has a little price action and the value of British pound emerges from default rate. At the moment, the pair seems to be holding the same level at 0.8514. Due to the extreme support of the European Central Bank monetary policy, it helped maintain the stability of prices and maintained the inflation rate close to medium term position. When inflation rate rises dramatically, there is a need to promote monetary easing in order to minimize financial costs and increase the amount of money flow in the market.
The investment sector is beset with difficulty, making it complicated to invest a new capital. To this extent the bank management should stabilize the global economy in order to aid bankruptcy. Every financial institution should write off undesirable credits or loans so as to recover losses and produce new income. Since the outset of the stock market storm in U.K. , the British pound ride out a way through it and made a 31-year low against dollar.
British sterling underscores a big fall of 13% versus dollar and 10% against euro. According to analysts, this will build up U.K exports because anything that is price-marked in sterling would be much cheaper for the foreign buyers. But the effect of these major lost in sterling offered mixed trade signals whether or not it would influence the external trade transactions.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13 2016 AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.
The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.
The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.
The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.
The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.
Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.
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Fundamental Analysis: July 13, 2016 The EUR/USD pair experienced a small upsurge after a possible stability of UK politics, lifting pressure from traders. The USD traded at 96.38 or 20 points lower, giving up some of its “safe haven” profit. On the other hand, the EUR traded today at 1.1088.
Consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.1%, while the yearly inflation rate for the past three months has increased from April’s -0.1%. Concerns within the Bundesbank may soon arise if the inflation rate continues its increase.
Fuel prices also went up as oil prices increased, causing transport costs to go up by 0.8%. On the other hand, food prices for this month went down at 0.4% while recreation prices increased after an upsurge in package holiday prices. On Monday afternoon, the EUR single currency experienced a marginal elevation against the USD after slightly up and down swings in a data-light session.
In general, the EUR was able to limit its incurred losses, thanks to the psychological barrier at the level of $1.10 for two consecutive sessions in spite of the turmoil caused by nonfarm payrolls.
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Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD: July 14, 2016 The EUR/USD pair was subject to pressure following the release of China’s latest trade balance data. The Euro went up by 0.0012 or roughly +0.11%, hitting 1.1084 from its low of 1.1042.
EUR traders can now breathe a sigh of relief after the trade balance data from China came out in their favor after the news release signalled a possible volatility. Exports came out at -4.8% after an estimate of -4.1%. On the other hand, imports came out at -8.4%, a long shot from its forecast of -5.0%. Meanwhile the dollar’s headline figure for June came out at $48.1 billion, about $2 billion lower than May’s headline figure, with economists gunning for a reading of $46.64 billion.
After US stock indices had an upward surge, Investors and traders are now back to monitoring global equity assets with the promise of higher risk assets, putting more confidence in the EUR/USD and aiding in its overall recovery.
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Fundamental Analysis: July 14 2016 The Bank of Canada opted to maintain interest rates during their most recent closed-door meeting with the currency board and bank directors and eventually the rate of the Canadian Dollar moved higher yesterday. The USD/CAD keeps on pushing higher prices most of the trading session but the invested capital gains immediately fluctuate down to 1.2934 close to 1.2976, falling to 0.0064 or -0.49%. Since midsummer the BoC continued to retain its appropriate benchmark with a rate of 0.50%.
According to the central bank, the financial valuation of the BoC would likely have an economic growth, considering that it has increased by 2.4% during the first quarter of the year and is expected to decline by 1% by the second quarter. The assessment is inferred through the volatility of the capital flows, household consumption and the massive wildfire that ravage the Canada's region.
The central bank also anticipates the expansion of the Canada's economy by 1.3% up to 3.5% during the months of July to September. The BoC mentioned also their expectation of the price stability of oil prices for the rest of this year.
One of the problems emerged in Canada is the overall financial vulnerabilities as it resulted to a lower rates and experienced an adverse shock. Other news releases said that a 4% price fall in crude oil will restrain the weakening of the USD/CAD pair.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2016 Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly increased with an exchange rate of 1.0874 but experienced to have a reverse path today and formed a negative candle pattern with a price rate of 1.1067 . The pair continued to strike around within the consolidation period and it snap back in the bottom of 1.10 level and 1.12 level at the top. Short-term market rallies will continue to sell and offer various opportunities that support short-term charts.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 18, 2016 The USD/CAD pair traded at 1.2971 and closed at 0.56% after the USD was restored and pressure was put on the market as international events shook traders during last Friday’s session. On Thursday, US numbers looked promising, as inflation rates went up after the PPI went over its estimated percentage of 0.3%, climbing up to 0.5%, the highest monthly gain since May 2015.
The Core PPI also exceeded expectations, gaining 0.4% after an initial estimate of 0.1%. However, Unemployment Claims remained stagnant at 254 thousand, way below the expected rate of 263 thousand. The consumer price index report of the US Department of Labor showed an increase in the CPI by 0.2% for June, while currency speculators renewed their net long position on the USD following a significant upsurge since June, after positive US economic data caused the currency to experience an increase.
The USD’s net long position increased after the week’s end on July 12, hitting $8.01 billion after last week’s $4.18 billion. US retail sales also picked up and went higher than expected, which shows how the economy went up during the second quarter of the year.
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Fundamental Analysis: July 19 2016 Currency Pair GBP/USD (British Pound/U.S. Dollar) has earned 55 points just as the U.S paper dollars go through a few price differences. Short-term buyers are expecting to have a significant data set this impending week since the recent British Prime Minister is now working for a new trade agreement with Europe. The moving average of the sterling pound is 1.3237 and gained up to 0.5% that yielded $1.3256. The pound increased right after the time of announcing the deal for adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) and when the policymaker of the Bank of England, Martin Weale released a statement about the need of a firmer financial evidences in order to change bank policy and bring an impact to U.K after they leave EU behind.
The BOE provided an additional market liquidity and cutback the mandatory capital requirements for the credit unions. Most of the Monetary Policy Committee members is anticipating for a stable movement on the 4th of August immediately prior to the publication of economic conditions and forecast.
Eventually, Weale will hand his resignation in the rear of the meeting next month. He confirmed that there is no instances of panic selling or panic buying among traders and investors after the strong vote for Brexit last month. Weale also said that central banks are far beyond the horizon of the falling market.
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: July 19, 2016 The USD/JPY pair clamped down an impressive pip average of 423 pips after the session closed down last week, the pair’s biggest weekly gain since October 2014. The pair doesn’t seem to be stopping these gains anytime soon, as this week’s opening proved to be favorable for the USD/JPY.
Sentiment has experienced a downgrade and is in its lowest level since January 2016. Meanwhile the SSI also went down at +1.15, the lowest reading since January 31, 2016, entering short into the USD/JPY.
The USD/JPY set its record of one of the highest pip sell off at 2,000 pips last January 2016. This sudden surge of the USD/JPY and a decrease in SSI readings might be even more favorable for traders if the prices can break newly-forming resistances.
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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 20 2016 The EUR/JPY recorded a downturn with an estimate of 35 points to 117.23 after euro traded a flat-lining, though the Japanese yen strongly gained a higher level just before the meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to be held next week, July 28-29. The BoJ expects that banks all over the world will cease the feverish trading cues. While the European Central Bank (ECB) already stated that they will set up a meeting this week.
The movement of Governor Kuroda's Mario Draghi recovered and will continue to affect him as he stands to lose through the monetary course. However, he can reconsider the route he used to take or measure the BoJ's quantitative easing then accept that he is suffering from defeat. On the other hand, Kuroda could apply the recommendation from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke about the deflation of Japan for a long period of time.
Whereas, the conjecture of the BoJ on their upcoming meeting is that Japan will pursue the “helicopter money” in order to widen the perpetual bond payments. The analysts from Morgan Stanley pointed out about the reports issued last few months ago by which it appeared that BoJ had an increase on their purchases beyond their official year pace worth $750 billion.
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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: July 20, 2016 The EUR/USD pair went down to 1.1071 while traders sit in anticipation of the ECB meeting scheduled on Thursday, where Mario Draghi is expected to comment about the ECB bond buying program after it drained the market supply. On the other hand, the economic sentiment for the German ZEW went lower due to uncertainties brought about by Brexit, as well as Italian bank concerns and worldwide terrorism attacks.
The economic sentiment reading for the German ZEW went down drastically at -6.8 points. Meanwhile, the Eurozone ZEW sentiment numbers were released at -14.7 points, with both sentiment readings coming short of its expected numbers.
The Brexit vote will be affecting not only the German ZEW but also other european countries. Although the German economy has proven to be resilient enough, its economy is still prone to the negative effects of economic events in the nation, and the ZEW numbers is expected to reflect these repercussions.
The German ZEW economic sentiment surprised the market after a steep decline in July, its first since October 2014. It was initially forecasted to come in at +8.2 points.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 21 2016 The EUR/USD gradually declined at 1.1009, dropping at 0.0011 or -0.10% because there is a build up of selling pressure that moves technically into a weaker global market since July 2014 which has 1.1164 as their highest points.
Investors are now fully prepared since the European Central Bank (ECB) have announced their monetary policy today thus resulted to a physically lower level of volume and volatility. According to the ECB, they planned not to enact new policy to their current protocol but it is still possible for the bank to issue a statement about the negative effects of inflation with response to the Brexit decision. After the dovish tone statement made by the ECB they intended to have a break for eight weeks.
The Brexit decision also affected the main driver of the price growth which is the relative value of U.S. Dollar. The report about the U.S Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of June made the dollar to settle against the Euro and the dollar continuously to heighten just as the U.S. Retail Sales excelled more over their anticipated outcome.
Yesterday, the report about the bullish housing were released and it supported the Fed rate to have a chance in increasing its rate hike up to 50% in response to the upcoming meeting on the month of December. Due to the absence of any major economic releases the market presented a two-way market on Wednesday.
In addition to the ECB announcement, traders can decide whether to cutback their positions over the long run since the EUR/USD may continue to finished a lower interest rate because of the rate differential against the U.S dollar. To wrap it up, the ECB could plan for an additional quantitative easing program while the U.S Fed is settling an increase for the recovery of the U.S dollar rate hike.
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Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: July 21, 2016 The USD gained an increase versus the CAD after investors paid more attention to a possible hike in US interest rates rather than a recovery in oil prices. The USD/CAD pair went up by 0.0036 or +0.28% at 1.3060.
On Tuesday, the USD/CAD sustained its support from traders after the release of a positive US housing starts data, causing a drastic change in the possibility of a Fed rate hike by at least 50%, after previous indicators showed only a 20% hike.
The USD was previously backed up by healthy June data of US Non-Farm Payrolls and an unexpected upsurge in retail sales data. On the other hand, the CAD was previously supported by the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its interest rates while rallying for a stronger and more stable economic status.
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 22 2016 The AUD/USD pair shifted from greater rates down to a lesser flat rates earlier today. The Australian dollar is experiencing an adverse situation since its net position turned down against the USD. The AUD trading rate is 0.7476. In spite of the relentless decline of the Aussie dollar, the Reserve Bank of Australia will uphold the reduction of the percentage rates within two weeks, although the rate of the US dollar is surging.
After an hour session last Wednesday, AUD/USD can be purchased at 0.7477 while the pair flattened again in the Asian trade. The New Zealand dollar also regressed with the AUD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a statement about their reduction on the interest rates, with regards to the restoration of the economic performance that were issued after the session.
The investors are expectant about the diversion of the United States' monetary policy after the US Federal Reserve increased in percentage rate and the RBA made an interest rate recession. While the Aussie dollar could possibly heightened their rate since it happened last May 2015.
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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 22, 2016 The EUR/GBP pair finished off last session with a gain of 27 points after the British Pound fell and the Euro sustained its value after the ECB held fast to its policy and rates. Traders are now monitoring Draghi’s address regarding the Brexit vote and the bond buying program. The ECB has left stagnant interest rates in the European Union.
However, the governing council has not taken any steps in spite of the uncertainties brought about by the Brexit referendum. The headline rates are still at zero and banks are still charged at 0.4% as penalty for leaving money inside the vaults of ECB. Retail sales on the other hand fell rapidly since December, with bad weather in the UK put to blame. Meanwhile the present currency volatility caused by the Brexit referendum and the recent attacks in Nice, France and Turkey continue to affect consumer confidence rates.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 26, 2016 The USD/JPY pair closed Monday’s session with a more stable position, after investors chose to wait out Bank of Japan and Fed’s meetings.
The Yen remained unchanged during Monday’s session, but its bearish views are becoming more favored by the minute. The pair’s resistance came in at 107.00, while its support remained at a standstill at 106.00. MACD experienced a decrease and remained on the positive side, which indicates the weakening state of the buyers’ positions, while the RSI is still on the neutral side.
The USD/JPY remains above the EMAs of 50, 100, and 200 in the 4-hour chart, with its moving averages all moving upwards. A downward surge may soon start if USD/JPY falls below the 105.30 support level. If buyers maintain their control, the pair may go up to 107.00 and possibly even up to 108.00.
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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 27, 2016 The EUR/GBP pair went up by 47 points as the British pound reversed its gains after comments from the Bank of England made traders upset, as well as forecasts that the UK will most probably go into recession after the Brexit vote. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which issues monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys of the UK economy, a “Flash UK PMI” survey will soon be published which will reportedly follow the principles of Markit’s Flash PMIs for the Eurozone.
Last week’s market activity already exhibited the effects of the Brexit vote on Britain’s declining economic status. An additional report from CIPS/Markit indicated that business activity in the region has been declining at a fast rate, its fastest since 2009. The Composite version of the survey which was released last Friday printed at 47.7, its lowest dip since April 2009.
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NZD/USD Technical analysis: July 27 2016 Regardless of the news about the subsidence in the Trade Balance during the month of June, the NZ Dollar continued to increase at constant rate.
The currency rate of the NZD/USD sharply moved upward and dropped toward the resistance level of 0.7050. A break beyond the level of resistance or support made the bullish sign to fade considerably. The pair steep down the lower level at 0.7050 while bearish investors take control of the gaining market. As shown in the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD currency pair, the resistance level is seen at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.
The MACD is plotted along the centerline by which the histogram signals moves in the negative territory showing the strength of the seller but if the index swings to the positive territory, it only means that the buyers will keep control over the market. The momentum oscillator RSI is retraced to the area of the overbought condition in the market which may be observed as a sell signal.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the New Zealand dollar was able to break the 50,100 and 200 day EMA . Though the bid or ask quotes did not pursue any further as well as the 100-EMA declined the currency pair, the moving average price of the NZD/USD is sloping downward with a bearish MACD which crosses over from the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.
Trading analysts believes that the bearish market will continue to prevail in the market. Technically, the following stop price will be placed at 0.6980
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2016 The British Pound’s value decreased after Wednesday’s session in spite of the positive GDP data for the 2nd quarter of the year. But the sterling pound obtained support from the United States after the Fed’s decision to keep their rates unchanged.
The GBP/USD pair remained neutral all throughout the session last Wednesday, with its trading instrument maintaining a support of 1.3100. Meanwhile, the resistance amounted to 1.3300. MACD’s indicator has dropped near the centerline, which signals a negative outcome for this particular indicator. A lack of movement from the histogram and its refusal to leave negative territories will mean a significant increase in the strength of buyers. However, if the MACD returns to its positive state then the buyers will ultimately have the ball, while the RSI remains ambiguous.
A downward trend is also seen in the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which eventually led to a bearish cross forming in the hourly charts. The instrument went over the said EMAs and went past the 1 hour chart.
Ultimately, trends are looking bearish, with the GBP/USD pair in danger of falling below 1.3100. But this does not not eliminate the possibility of the said currency pair experiencing an increase of up to 1.3300.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 28 2016 Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing to issue an economic stimulus package about the competitive sale of Japan's Fuji TV last Tuesday that reached around 27 trillion yen but Japanese Yen still declined against the U.S Dollar. The exchange rate of USD/JPY is 105.568, up 0.953 or +0.91%.
The report from Kyodo News about the upcoming announcement of Abe made the US Dollar to gain more over Yen instead, and it approximately achieve $354 billion or 28 trillion yen.
The stimulus plan of Abe is already prepared before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan finishes on Friday. The BoJ will lend their support for the monetary policy stimulus.
USD/JPY is expected to receive a support from the U.S Federal Reserve policy statement if they would release it at 1800 GMT because the Fed would not modify their interest rate in any moment. However, many investors are anticipating for a rate hike in Fed since there is a fifty percent possibility that the BoJ will have an increased on interest rate just before the December meeting take place.
A Fed rate hike will probably occur this month when the U.S economic reports will suppose to have a stronger result than expected. The U.S Federal Reserve considers some improvement in the labor market, wage growth and inflation before establishing a rate hike before the year ends.
An inflation hawk will allow the pair USD/JPY to make a progress but may recede if the Fed finishes a dove stances. In the rear of such issues and feedback, the main subject will be the resolution of BoJ on Friday.
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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 29, 2016 The EUR/GBP pair increased by 62 points after the euro went up and the sterling pound declined during Thursday’s session. The currency pair is presently trading at 0.8425 points. The British pound still continued its decline even after a reported second-quarter increase in UK’s economic growth, whose increase was initially seen to be a positive sign for the currency pair.
The UK economy went up by 0.6% during the second-quarter which was sealed by the controversial Brexit vote, a significant increase compared to the 0.4% during the first quarter of 2016. The British pound plummeted its lowest in two weeks after Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said that PMI surveys would be of importance during BoE’s next policy meeting. He also added that in order for an interest rate cut to happen, there must be a concrete evidence of the UK economy losing its strength.
In July, the Bank of England shocked the financial market when it refused to snip the benchmark for the borrowing cost from its all-time low of 0.5%. However, decision details from last week’s BoE meeting showed that most policymakers will be expected to endorse a yet unknown set of measures in order to help strengthen Britain’s economy.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 29 2016 The U.S Federal reserve remained their decision in keeping the rates constant but the dollar still falls below. The financial market is uncertain if the Fed will made some changes in U.S bank rates for the month of September.
The financial instrument stays well below from its daily high at 0.7550.The currency pair test the level 0.7500 and indicated a bearish side. The resistance level lies at 0.7600 while the support can be seen at 0.7500.
RSI occurred in the overbought market which implies a sell signal whereas the MACD depreciated by which resulted the position of the buyers to weaken.
The exponential moving average of the pair is directed to 50 and 100 day in the hourly chart. It also presented 50, 100 and 200 which are neutral moving averages.
In case that the price of the pair breaks beyond the resistance level of 0.7500 and bounds lower down the trendline is expected to continue. The next target of the investor is the support level at 0.7400.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2016 The AUD/USD pair went significantly higher last Friday after the disappointment caused by the stimulus measurements of the Bank of Japan and the weak US GDP report. This increase was further augmented by the inflation data of the Australian market and the neutrality of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement.
This coming Tuesday, investors are anticipating the rate statement of the Australian Reserve Bank, where a lot of investors believe that the central bank will decrease its benchmark interest rate 25-basis points from 1.75% to possibly up to 1.50%. The main trend went down after the Federal Reserve’s statement caused a volatile reaction. However, should there be a trade at .7675, the main trend may change according to the daily swing chart.
Friday’s close indicated a strong buying, after the testing of the retracement zone of .7490 to .7571 which has been tested all throughout the month of July, with its major range at .7834 to .7145. The retracement zone is now in control of the market’s long-term direction.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2016 The price of EUR progressed towards the US Dollar subsequently when the GDP data of Eurozone eventuate. The statement of Fed with regard to inflation hawk resulted a possible rate hike for the U.S. dollar.
The EUR/USD pair transcend an upward trend on Friday. The financial instrument directed its highest possible rating approximately in the 1.1200 level. The resistance is set at 1.1200 level whereas the support lies in the 1.1130 level.
The ball bounces in a bull position as attested by the market indicators, the MACD moves within the positive zone which marked an increase in the histogram and registered the strength of the buyers. While the RSI entered the overbought territory.
The 4-hour chart identified the prices of the currency pair that stalled beyond the 200-EMA approaching to a higher probability of the 1.1200 region. The expected target will be in the levels of 1.1130 and 1.1200 due to the viable price return in the forex market.
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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: August 3, 2016 The EUR/GBP pair traded at 0.8462 points prior to the Bank of England meeting this coming Thursday. Certain factors may weigh in on the value of the said currency pair, such as the Bank of England’s prospective move to cut its base rates below the US rates, which can add to its passive quantitative easing. However, some major banks are speculating that the dollar might be prone to a squeeze following the release of data on Friday.
The EUR has surprisingly done well in spite of the controversy brought about by the Brexit vote three weeks ago. It traded slightly lower than the dollar but is still higher compared to its value last February and has traded higher against the pound, its highest since three years ago. But the IMF has already stressed that Brexit is somewhat more damaging to the EU economy than it is for Great Britain, and the latest ZEW survey has shown reports of confidence going down, with economic sentiment indicators decreasing to its lowest levels since Germany’s financial crisis last 2012.
Some economists believe that this data means that investors are more concerned with Brexit’s effects on the German economy than the financial market’s response to Brexit.
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USD/JPY Technical analysis: August 3 2016 The Japanese Yen viewed to increased at its 3-week high after the Prime Minister of Japan officially announced about the stimulus package to reinforce the Japan's economy.
The price movements of the pair in the intraday chart seems bearish since USD/JPY go through a downward pressure for the past week. The pair continued to mark down at 100.64 level. The current resistance comes in 101.40 while the level of support can be seen at 100.40
The momentum indicators, RSI and MACD is observed to create sell signals for traders. RSI moved into the oversold condition, at the same time the MACD indicated strength in the seller's position due to its downward movement.
Presented in the 4-hour chart is the price movement of the instrument that are approximately in the downward trendline that tapped out the 50,100 and 200 Day EMAs.
Trader's next potential target exists at 100.40 and speculated a short-term bullish call close to 101.40.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2016 The EUR/USD is trading at a lower value inside yesterday’s range and during the mid-session, which hints at an impending volatility and an indecision among investors. The most recent data on private sector jobs from ADP, which is slated to come out at 12:15 GMT, is being anticipated by investors since the said report will show that there have been 170,000 jobs added by the US economy last July.
The said pair might have a stronger value if the ADP data released will be below the expected estimate. However, if the data comes out higher than expected, then this will drive the EUR lower and increase the value of the US dollar. According to the daily swing chart, the general trend is a downward surge, and even though the EUR/USD pair has increased its trading value since July 25, this has not affected the current trend. The pair is also still trading within the post-Brexit range in spite of its high-pointing momentum levels.
With the pair’s current pricing at 1.1197, the closest resistance point will be the Fibonacci level at 1.1229. A possible trigger for acceleration to the upside might happen if there will be an overtake of the weekly high at 1.1233 and the upward angle at 1.1286. This might also mean another point for a deeper rally at an angle of 1.1356. The EUR/USD will be in a bearish position if there will be a crossover to the weaker side of the angle, which is at 1.1146. This also means that there will be possible targets coming in a support cluster at 1.1092 to 1.1091.
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NZD/USD Technical analysis: August 4 2016 As stated in economic news reports, work compensation in New Zealand speculated for 1.8% but labor price index releases 1.6% compared to their assumption.
The trades for kiwi remained under a negative situation and settled in bearish position yesterday. NZD/USD pair dropped to its lowest price at 0.7140. The resistance is deployed at 0.7250 with the support that appeared in the 0.7150 level.
The MACD is plotted in the positive signal. The histogram narrowed down and reduced the strength of the buyer. RSI has been in the neutral territory. The oscillator gradually declined.
Moving average cross-over is presented in the 4-hour chart which indicated the EMAs 50,100 and 200 in an upward direction.
Analysts estimates that the market would shift to a bearish tone thus the seller's target comes in at 0.7050.
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Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: August 5, 2016 The cable pair GBP/USD went down by 150 points after the good news brought about by the Bank of England. The BoE added stimulus by cutting its rates, which increased the sterling pound’s trading value at 1.3165. The Bank of England increased its asset purchases by 425 billion pounds and cut 0.25% from its lending rates. It has also announced its plans to follow in ECB’s footsteps by buying corporate bonds. Money markets were also completely priced in a quarter-point decrease to the main rates of the central bank, and investors and economists believe that there will soon be new measures which can cause the economy to surge after the UK’s decision to cut itself off from the European Union.
On the other hand, the USD remained firm in spite of Thursday’s most recent low in six weeks, while the GBP remained in a tight range on top of renewed anticipation that the BoE will be cutting its interest rates for the first time since 2009 in an attempt to stave off a possible recession.
The dollar index fell flat at 95.56 on top of a six-week low of 95.003 early this week. The most recent focus for the USD is the expected release of US jobs data on Friday. It is expected that this will cause the Federal Reserve to increase its interest rates on the latter part of the year. US futures interest rates are suggesting a 40% chance of the Fed increasing its interest rates this coming December.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 5, 2016 Recently, the euro dropped on the second day of the line. The base currency indicated a sluggish position despite of the progressed made by the USD. The investors shifted their focus towards the US non-farm payrolls data that will be issued today, since the Eurozone Economic Bulletin did not submit any relevant reports.
EUR/USD still spotted on the negative territory while the dollar is shown to trade in mixed trend yesterday and edged over euro. The resistance is placed at the 1.1200 level, the support is set at 1.1130.
The momentum indicator, MACD appears a divergence and indicated a sell signal while the RSI is approaching a downward position since it departed outside the overvalued area.
According to the indicator chart, the financial instrument returned to the 50-EMA and crossover the 100 and 200-EMA resulting to a neutral position.
If a price break occurred and the support level is less than 1.1130, therefore a downturn will yield out from 1.1050 to 1.1000.
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