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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 28, 2016 The USD was able to maintain its three-month price advantage against the JPY after a positive US Treasury yields data and growing positive expectations with regards to the Fed rate hike in December. Thursday’s session saw the USD increase further in relation to the Japanese yen, with the USD/JPY bouncing back from its previous losses during the last trading session.
The pricing for the pair remained on the positive territory and was able to reach the 105.00 range during the rest of the trading session. The currency pair was able to go beyond its current moving averages and is currently pointing on the higher side of its hourly chart. Support levels for the currency pair is at 104.50, while resistance levels are set at 105.00.
The MACD indicators for the pair is expected to increase, while the RSI indicator for the pair is currently consolidating within its overbought trading range. The USD/JPY pair will have to maintain its value above 104.50 points in order to retain its bullish stance and create more gains for the pair. Meanwhile, if the pair closes down the trading session at 104.50, then the pair is expected to go even lower at 104.00 points.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: October 28, 2016 The sterling pound was able to acquire some measure of support following the release of a highly positive GDP report for the region. The GBP has now significantly increased in value. However, further profits for the sterling pound was restrained after the USD was able to recover its previous losses.
The GBP/USD remained a few points away from its current support level of 1.2200 during Thursday’s session, with its most recent reversion stalling within the 1.2150 range which caused the pair’s price rate to drop. Meanwhile, the GBP stayed within the 1.2200 range and increased in value during the London session, but the GBP/USD pair slightly weakened during the New York session. The GBP reverted from the 50-EMA within the 1.2200 range and was able to break through the 200-EMA in its hourly chart. The 200 EMA is is exhibiting a downward trend, while the 50 and 100 EMA is currently at the neutral territory. Resistance levels for the GBP/USD is at 1.2300, while support levels for the pair are expected to be at 1.2200.
The MACD technical indicator for the pair is currently at the middle, and an increase in buyer strength is expected once the histogram indicator moves to the positive side of the chart. However, once the MACD enters the negative side, then this will signal a market takeover by sellers. If the sterling continues to weaken, then the GBP/USD pair is expected to go below 1.2200, wherein sellers are expected to move the currency’s value further into 1.2100. On the other hand, the downward pressure on the sterling might be lessened if the pair goes beyond the 1.2300 range.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 02, 2016 The JPY inched higher against the USD during Tuesday’s trading session as a result of safety buying from market players. This flight to safety was caused by a sharp sell-off in the US equity market after equities dropped due to investor reactions to the FBI’s probe of Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, as well as the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve which had a significant impact on the foreign exchange market.
Profits lagged behind on Tuesday after investors shifted their focus on the upcoming elections, as well as decisions from the Fed, especially since there are concerns from the market that a Trump victory could lead to a Brexit-like situation in the US. The US Final Manufacturing PMI data came out at 53.4 points, going slightly above the expected data of 53.3 points. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released at 51.9 points. Construction spending data dropped by up to 0.4%, falling short of traders’ expectations of 0.5%.
The Bank of Japan voted last Tuesday to maintain its current interest rate as well as its target for its 10-year government bond yields at -0.1% and 0%. The BoJ also cautioned market players that inflation risks and growth risks are currently on the negative territory.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 02, 2016 The EUR/USD pair increased up to 1.1068, its highest level reached in 3 weeks after the dollar traded significantly lower after the results of the US Presidential poll showed that Trump went one point higher than Clinton with regards to voters’ intentions. Meanwhile, US macroeconomic releases came out on a positive note after the Markit PMI data for October came out at 53.4, its highest data release for 2016.
In spite of positive US data which strengthens the possibility of an interest rate hike in December, the USD is still in danger of dropping in value during the Tokyo session due to the negative market sentiment with regards to the US dollar. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair exhibits high overbought rates for the technical indicators even though the EUR/USD had a bare minimum of additional 100 pips on a daily basis, which is also an indicator that there is a possibility that the EUR/USD could gain more profit.
The EUR/USD will have to go above its daily highs in order to incur more gains since this is the 50% retracements of its most recent drop in value. The movement of the EUR/USD is expected to slow down during the Tokyo session prior to the FOMC meeting which will determine whether the USD will be able to sustain its current bearish stance.
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: November 02, 2016 The GBP/USD pair increased up to 1.2280 points but immediately reverted back to 1.2200 points before closing the previous trading session at 1.2230 points. The momentum of the GBP slowed down after the release of the UK Markit manufacturing PMI data for October which plummeted to 54.3 points from its previous reading of 55.5 points. Market speculators are waiting for the results of the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting even though the BoE is not expected to make adjustments to its monetary policies as of the moment.
However, BoE governor Mark Carney relieved the market on Monday after announcing that the governor will be serving another term in order to help the bank’s economic policies adjust to the effects of Brexit. The technical indicators for the pair have maintained their neutral bearings with the 20 SMA now at 1.2200 and other indicators seen at the positive territory but lacking decisive directional strength.
Market players are advised to monitor the 1.2335 region on the upward territory and its support levels at 1.2170 points since the pair will have to break through any of these levels in order to gain significant directional momentum.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 3, 2016 The USD continues to be subject to downward pressure during Wednesday’s trading session due to uncertainties brought about by the upcoming US Presidential elections next week. The USD/JPY pair was unable to maintain its previous levels of 105.00 after a heavy seller resistance within this particular region, causing the currency pair to lose some of its value. Wednesday’s trading session saw the pair remain in the negative territory as the downward momentum for the currency pair continued. Seller pressure also pushed the USD/JPY further below 104.00 and is now approaching the 103.00 trading range.
The USD/JPY pair broke through 103.50 and is well on its way to 103.00. The pricing of the currency pair went over the 100-EMA and is testing the 200-EMA for the pair’s 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, moving averages for the USD/JPY is currently on the downward direction. Resistance levels for the pair are expected to be at 103.50, while support levels for the pair are expected to be at 103.00. MACD indicators for the pair declined, showing seller strength. RSI indicators are now a few pips away from the oversold level which signals a possible downward move for the pair.
If the USD/JPY continues to be subject to downward pressure, then the pair could possible reach its previous low of 102.50. However, there is still a probability that the pair would be able to reach its resistance levels at 103.50-103.80 points.
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AUD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 4, 2016 The AUD/JPY was able to remain in the positive side of the chart as the USD incurred more losses against the JPY and increased pressure on the cross currency pair. The AUD/JPY pair hit session highs at 79.42 points but eventually reverted back to its previous range of 79.10 points.
While the AUD/JPY lost some of its previous gains, the AUD/USD pair increased further and was able to reach its highest range in November after the Australian retail sales data showed a 0.6% increase as compared to September’s data of 0.4%. However, the increase in this currency pair was not enough to outweigh the decrease in the value of USD/JPY.
If the AUD/JPY manages to go over 79.42 could possible lead to a strong resistance level at the 80.00 trading range. If the pair closes the trading session over the zero figure then this could induce more bulls and could possibly cause the pair to go further at 81.52 points. The pair’s support levels is expected to be at 79.00 and could cause a sell-off at the 78.48 and 78.00
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016 The EUR/USD is expected to incur significant gains due to risks that Donald Trump could possibly win the upcoming presidential elections, something that the international market did not anticipate. However, some market players are also saying that the USD would be able to regain some of its strength over a few days and a relief rally would occur should Clinton come out as the winning candidate in the elections. Prior to the opening of the Monday session, Clinton was already cleared by the FBI with regards to her e-mails and this is expected to be good for her campaign and has already caused some currency pairs to open up certain gaps.
The EUR/USD pair has already dropped by up to 70 pips and this is just a sneak peek of what could possibly happen if ever Clinton wins the presidential elections, especially since the market is now anticipating a Clinton victory with Trump’s chances becoming invariably slim.
Market players are expecting that this particular gap in the currency pair will be temporarily covered, while the USD is set to regain some of its lost value during the next trading sessions, especially with the impending presidential elections.
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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: November 7, 2016 The USD/JPY pair was able to make a small recovery during last Friday’s session after a series of risk-offs which hit the European and American stock market. However, the pair continues to stay in the negative territory and traded within Thursday’s low levels on Friday’s session. The currency pair had a fairly bearish stance after the pair experienced selling pressure above the 103.00 region. Resistance was encountered by USD bulls along the 103.20 trading range where the 200 EMA is also located. The 200 EMA maintained the pressure on the USD/JPY by resisting all possible recovery moves.
The 50 and 100 EMAs for the currency pair decreased quickly, while the 200 EMA maintained its bearish outlook for the session. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to be around the 103.50 range, while support levels are expected to come up at the 103.00 region. The technical indicators for the USD/JPY pair are seen to be slightly bearish, with an increase in the MACD indicator showing a weakness in seller positions. Meanwhile, the RSI indicators for the pair is still consolidating within its undervalued regions.
The USD/JPY pair is expected to have its resistance levels at 103.50 if the currency pair would be able to consolidate over the 103.00 region. However, the USD/JPY might again experience a decline if the pair closes the session with a lower value than this particular level.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016 The USD is expected to increase significantly against the yen during Monday’s trading session as a result of investor reaction to reports that the FBI will be dropping its investigation of US Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails and will not be filing any charges against the Democratic candidate.
This then means that the Monday session is most likely to be a risky day as investors are expected to go on an aggressive USD and stock-buying spree especially after last week’s sell-offs. Investors are also expected to sell their safe haven assets which were bought as hedge against the probability of a Trump victory, which includes the JPY, EUR, and gold stocks. The USD/JPY dropped to its support region located at the 102.799-102.155 range, going down at 102.533. The pair is expected to rally back to at least 104.03 to 104. 383 if the short-term rally for today’s session proves to be strong enough for the currency pair.
Market players are expected to mainly focus on the upcoming elections even with new economic events taking place, after which, the market is expected to shift its focus on the expected Fed rate hike this coming December. These events are expected to induce an upward shift in the value of the US dollar. The Bank of Japan is expected to release the minutes of its latest Monetary Policy Meeting, while the Average Cash Earnings is expected to be released at 0.2%. Minor reports from the US to be released this Monday are the Loan Officer Survey, Labor Market Conditions, 10-Year Bond Auctions and Consumer Credit data.
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 7, 2016 The stronger U.S. dollar overpowers Australian dollar. Last week, the greenback declined as the polls showed a lead of the Republican candidate Donald Trump against the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton. Now, it has been reversed. Greenback is anticipated to rise up again as the news regarding Hilary Clinton’s issue with the private email server, while she was still in the position as the secretary of the state, has been cleared. This sudden boost in prices is a great opportunity especially for audacious investors and gain profit to low prices and buy stocks to avail funds. Investors are expected to hedge funds to narrow risks in this situation.
Aussie is considerably a risky asset hence, a bullish trend may not create a big change in the Australian dollar. Yet, the next move of this pair cannot be clearly known compared to other major currency such as Yen and dollar. Traders have to be careful on their next move and there are other pairs that are more stable.
The main concern in U.S. is the presidential election while the price activity of Aussie depends on the AIG Construction Index and the ANZ Job Advertisements report. There are other minor news in Australia namely: the Labor Market Conditions Index, Loan Officer Survey and Consumer Credit. However, these are expected not to have a major influence in trading.
Aussie is in a neutral state today and investors should be mindful that the price activity may change drastically as it might go a sudden dive in response with the news. As the U.S. presidential election gets near, the financial market is still shaky with investors being unsure to take a position prior to the election.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016 It is expected for the pair USD/CAD to have less volatility for this week compared to other currencies with global financial market shaken because of the much awaited U.S. Presidential election. The results will be accounted shortly after the election. Volatility is highly affected by this election depending on who will the elected winner although loonies remains steady. It sways around 1.3400 and its pricing ranges from 1.3500 to 1.3300 physiological level.
If the Democratic candidate Hilary Clinton wins the election, greenback will most likely as most of the financial market is on her side and responses are positive including the stock market. This could also boost the oil prices which will be advantageous since loonies is cinched with the oil market. This means that this would even out the appreciation of U.S. dollars. Thereby, the pair would remain in a consolidated state and keep within the range.
There is no any major news to be publicized from Canada while the U.S. presidential election remains in the spotlight. For traders who positioned long for this pair could continue to do so while those who opted for the sidelines could still wait until all the risks associated with the election diminishes which is even safer.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016 The GBP/USD is currently one of the most active currency pairs as of yesterday’s trading session after it plummeted from 1.2500 and settled below 1.2400 points after the most recent news regarding the FBI probe of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton’s e-mails. The GBP/USD is expected to further increase its volatility during today’s session up until the following days especially in the light of the upcoming US presidential elections.
If Clinton manages to win the elections, then could push the USD farther up the positive range and cause the pair to go lower, possibly even crossing below the 1.2300 range. This is highly possible since the sterling pound is not only the most volatile currency as of this writing, but it is currently among the weakest due to complications in the Brexit strategies of the UK government. The ongoing discussions regarding Article 50 might induce more risks and could make the sterling weaker as the discussions progress.
The UK Manufacturing Data is expected to be released during the European trading session, and this is expected to give traders a clearer notion of how the UK manages its Brexit complications. However, the entirety of the market is now monitoring the results of the US elections, and the USD is expected to become more volatile in the coming hours.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 8, 2016 The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve did not release any important economic statements today, and investors from Japan are not expected to make any significant movements until after the US presidential elections. The USD/JPY pair is also expected to further decrease in value due to the most recent movement in oil prices. The USD/JPY pair further widened its gap during Monday’s session, increasing from 103.13 to 103.74 points due to gap traders triggering an increase in the gap value.
Meanwhile, the pair’s pricing was able to increase by up to 104.50 after the upward momentum for the pair decreased and is expected to be sustained until the end of the New York session. The 4-hour chart for the pair showed the USD going over its current moving averages, with the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs exhibiting an upward direction. Resistance levels for the support is expected to be at 104.50, while support levels are expected to be at 104.00 points.
MACD levels for the pair exhibited a drop in seller strength due to its increase. RSI indicators are still in the overvalued range but could probably go lower as the trading session progresses. The negative outlook for the USD/JPY could possibly fade if the currency pair goes over 104.00 points, and buyers could be able to increase their profits if it reaches 105.00. Conversely, bears might be able to induce the pricing to go beneath 104.00 points.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 8, 2016 The market is keen and waiting for the U.S. presidential election on November 8 afternoon time in USA. The polls shown a tight competition between the candidates. Traders learned from Brexit that it is much safer to be on standby and wait for the results that is why there is less volatility yesterday until this day. This day determines the short term trend for various instruments which is being anticipated by market players.
Yesterday was bearish for the pair as the U.S. Dollars strengthened with traders aspiring Clinton to win. It posited at 1.1050 and 1.1031 physiological levels. Volatility is expected for the day with the bearish trend to continue as the election closes by. The financial market is positioning with Clinton winning as this is what they want which is expected to further strengthen the U.S. Dollars once the results are out. However if the Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the election, this is not what is expected that may cause a short-term turmoil in the market.
There are no other major economic news to be released neither from the Euro region nor on the U.S.A today. Everyone is looking forward for the election which is the focus for the past weeks bringing volatility today and tomorrow. It is presumed for other data to come out after the election results are out. It is advisable for traders to be keen in their positions with tight stop losses.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 11, 2016 The USD increased tremendously against the JPY during Thursday’s trading session after investors posted a somewhat hopeful sentiment towards President-elect Trump’s term, as well as his ability to add stimulus to the US economy as well as increase the nation’s interest rates. The USD bounced back to 106.94, its highest level reached since July. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous trading session at 106.793 points after increasing by +1.08% or 1.139 and is expected to make further gains at 3.5%.
Since today is a US bank holiday, the USD is expected to get high levels of support from the US Treasury market, which could possibly lead to limited upside activity or profit taking, especially since US Treasury yields reached its highest levels this week, its highest after 10 months. The USD/JPY could either increase further if the US reflation trade gains momentum and long-term US Treasury yields go higher, or the currency pair could be augmented by a steady flow of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. However, there is also a possibility that the USD could lose its footing against the JPY, especially since one of the major highlights of the Trump presidency is protectionism, which could adversely affect the US foreign trade.
The recent activity of the USD as well as the US equity markets suggest that investors are expecting that Trump would be able to become successful with regards to expanding the US economy by way of tax cuts and fiscal spending. These could induce inflation levels and add up to the US debt, prompting the Fed to increase interest rates next year in a more frequent succession than previously expected.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016 The GBP/USD also experienced the effect of the increased market volatility during the US elections, however its reaction was largely different compared to that of the other currency pairs. The GBP/USD pair was steadily increasing amid initial market expectations of a Clinton victory but as it became clear that Trump was winning the presidency, the currency pair suddenly increased in value as opposed to other currency pairs, which either went up and down or experienced a large decline.
The GBP/USD reached the 1.2550 range but slowly decreased as the market reconciled with a Trump victory and as the USD slowly regained some of its lost value. However, as the other currency pairs steadily dropped in value as the USD rose, the sterling pound instead rose higher and came to rest at a much higher trading range than the USD. This led to speculations that since the US was able to survive the sudden onslaught brought about by a Trump victory, the UK would also be able to hold off on its own as the Brexit progresses. The increase in the GBP was largely due to a minimizing of the initial market overreaction to Brexit, and causing the pair to go up to 1.2670 and ended the previous week with just a little below 1.2600.
The market is expecting the release of the CPI data and inflation reports from the UK this week, which could give hints regarding the overall status of the UK economy and help in evaluating the further effects of Brexit on the nation’s economy.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016 The USD/CAD pair was able to reach its short-term target of 1.3500 since the pair was one of the least volatile currency pairs after the market’s reaction to the US presidential elections last week. The USD in particular exhibited wild up-and-down motions while the US elections was in process as investors did not know how to react to the sudden victory of Donald Trump. Trump is not yet known how to act as a political figure, however he is expected to implement protectionist policies and it is expected that Canada would also be affected by Trump’s “neighbor” policy, causing the CAD’s reaction to the elections to become somewhat muted as compared to other currencies.
Oil prices have also experienced added activity last week, as this commodity has a significant effect on the Canadian economy. For this week, major economic releases from the US include the retail sales data as well as a testimonial from Fed’s Janet Yellen who is expected to outline the Federal Reserve’s future policies. The market is still expecting a rate hike in December, and the Fed is also expected to increase the frequency of its rate hikes for 2017, and this speculation has been one of the reasons behind the large upticks occurring in the USD/CAD pair. However, these policies might be subject to changes as the weeks progress and as Trump assumes office next year.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 14, 2016 The USD experienced a sharp increase against the JPY following a series of investor reactions regarding Donald Trump’s sudden victory in the US elections. The USD/JPY pair closed down last week’s session at 106.615 points after increasing by +3.45% or 3.552 points.
A large number of investors had a flight to safety on November 8 due to uncertainties brought about by the elections, a move highly similar to the Brexit referendum last June. This resulted to increases in the prices of gold and CHF, but as the market came to terms with a Trump victory this has resulted to a steady increase in the US dollar. The market is now expecting added inflation due to Trump’s policies, which include added fiscal spending and production of trade. This has caused the US Treasury yields to increase, therefore putting upward pressure on the USD and making the USD a more sensible investment as compared to Japan’s government bonds. Analysts are now saying that this could compel the Federal Reserve to increase the frequency of its rate hikes.
The USD/JPY pair is expected to continue increasing if the US Treasury yields continue to strengthen as well. Major economic releases from Japan include the nation’s Preliminary GDP, which is expected to clock in at 0.2%, which is the same as the previous GDP report. For the US, expected economic releases are the Retail Sales data, Philadelphia Fed reports, Building Permits data and the Producer Price Index data. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is also expected to make a statement on Thursday.
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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: November 15, 2016 The EUR/GBP pair lost its sellers below the 0.86 region for the third consecutive session, maintaining the currency pair’s stance over the key levels in the light of a highly active economic calendar. The market is expecting the release of Germany’s GDP report for the third quarter of 2016. The CPI data for the UK is also expected to exhibit an increased cost of living for the nation at 1.1% for October. The GDP report for the European Union is also expected to get significant attention from market players as it gets released later in the session.
The increased activity in the economic calendar could lead to an increase in stock market activity, which will then have a significant impact on the demand for EUR. The EUR/GBP is currently trading at the 0.8610 range, and incessant bounces from the 0.86 handle could possibly cause the pair to break through the handle and could lead the pair to trade at 0.8652 points and 0.85. On the positive territory, if the pair manages to go above its 100-DMA of 0.8628 then this could cause the pair to go over 0.8664 and possibly even reach its zero figure of 0.8700.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 15, 2016 The USD has been recently exhibiting a steady increase, causing the EUR/USD pair to open this week’s session with a weaker value and went even lower as the previous session progressed. The currency pair closed last week’s session at its support levels of 1.0850 and the market was expecting further support levels at 1.0800. However, the EUR/USD started out the previous trading session at below 1.0800 in the light of a broadly increasing USD value.
The EUR/USD further decreased in value, going through 1.0750 at the London session and tested support levels at 1.0700 at the start of the New York trading session. The movements of the EUR/USD were somewhat muted during the course of the trading session, mainly due to the significant strength of the USD plus Draghi opting to stay mum with regards to the ECB’s future plans on its monetary policies. The currency pair spent the rest of the New York session consolidating after the market chose to keep a positive outlook for the Trump presidency, and the USD is expected to have a continuously positive reaction in the market.
The market is now expecting the release of Germany’s preliminary GDP during the European session, as well as the retail sales data from the US to be released during the New York session. These are expected to confirm market speculations with regards to the Fed rate hike in December.
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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016 The AUD/USD pair exhibited increased volatility during Tuesday’s session but ended the session on a higher range at 0.7559 points after increasing by +0.05% or 0.0004 points. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD closed down the previous trading session at 0.7099 after decreasing by -0.24% or 0.0017 points.
The Australian dollar received substantial support after the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its recently concluded policy meeting. The minutes of the RBA showed a balanced inflation risk, indicating a more stable monetary policy which is expected to go forward. The RBA has also showed a positive stance with regards to global growth. However, the market has to consider that the RBA meeting took place prior to the election of Donald Trump.
The Australian dollar broke sharply as the session closed due to the release of the US retail sales data which came out on a much positive note as compared to October’s data. According to report, majority of households in the US purchased a wide range of goods, including motor vehicles. The retail sales report indicates that the US economy is sustaining enough growth which could increase the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December. However, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will be closely watching the regulation of the financial market as well as interest rates due to Trump’s fiscal spending proposals. The Fed Vice Chairman has also stated that however risky the market liquidity is at present, the liquidity is just enough to sustain the movement of the global market.
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: November 16, 2016 The USD continued to rise against the JPY as investor reaction caused the USD/JPY to reach its highest levels since June 2016. This has caused the market to reach its striking distance range since May at 111.44 points. The USD/JPY pair finished off the previous session at 109.181 points after increasing by 0.760 or +0.70%.
This recent rally was mainly caused by a sharp increase in US Treasury yields following the bullish report for the US retail sales data. The US Commerce Department has reported that retail sales data went up by 0.8% for the previous month, with September retail sales data revised to have increased by 1.0%. The retail sales data for both months were the highest data release since 2014, with retail sales data increasing by 4.3% as compared to last year.
Traders also reacted to an increase in import prices from 0.2% to 0.5%, a signal that inflation rates are now steadily increasing. The USD/JPY is expected to continue increasing towards 111.444 as US Treasury yields are still expected to increase further. Meanwhile, Japanese Government Bonds are still at the bottom range while US Treasury 30-year Bonds are steadily rising. Investors are waiting for the release of the Produce Price Index which is expected to maintain its previous reading of 0.3%. The data for the Capacity Utilization Rate is also expected to remain at 75.5%, while Industrial Production data could possibly show a slight increase from 0.1% to 0.2%.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016 The GBP/USD pair remains in the lower trading range even though it has managed to stay above 1.2400. Market players have long been speculating that the after-effects of the Brexit referendum will continue to have an influence on the sterling pound no matter how many times it would increase and its bulls will not be able to stay put. The GBP will have difficulty with regards to getting and maintaining a substantial bull stance since the Brexit process will be too risky for investors and traders for them to make long-term bets. The currency pair has recently been trying to break through its rut, but any uptick by the sterling pound is always met with suspicion from investors and is always seen as a sell opportunity. The pair was somewhat able to increase by 200-300 pips during the past trading sessions but was incessantly pushed down by bears and has returned below 1.2500.
For today’s trading session, investors are expecting the release of the UK retail sales data during the European session, with investors waiting whether this particular data release would be able to exceed initial expectations. The CPI data from US and comments from Fed’s Janet Yellen is also expected to make its rounds today, and the GBP/USD could possibly benefit if Yellen confirms the occurrence of the Fed rate hike in December by going down to the 1.2300 region.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2016 The EUR/USD has been consistently in a tight trading range for the past session as market players are waiting for the next stimulus in order to mark the start of the short-term trend. Although the EUR/USD has hit some significant price lows for this year, its follow throughs have been very few and far in between. The pair is currency seeing more consolidation, which indicates that the bulls are still waiting for possible economic events which could cause the price of the pair to crack both ways.
The number of economic data which will be released today could possibly cause the pair to crack either way. The CPI data and Core CPI is scheduled to be released before the start of the New York session, and market players are expecting a positive data release since this could compel the Federal Reserve to continue with the rate hike in December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is also scheduled to make a speech later today and is expected to confirm whether the Fed will be pushing through with the rate hike, and she is also expected to confirm that the Federal Reserve will be sustaining its operations and functions without any political influence, especially after Donald Trump’s victory. However, if Yellen fails to confirm the occurrence of the Fed rate hike, then this could cause the USD to weaken and the bulls will be active in the EUR/USD pair.
The pricing of the EUR/USD should be able to go beyond 1.0725 in order for it to benefit the bulls, something that has not done by the currency pair for the past 24 hours. Today’s session could be a crucial period with regards to determining the projected direction of the pair.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 17, 2016 The USD CAD bolstered yesterday despite the recent decline in petroleum prices. The pair touched the ascending channel and trades to a lower boundary. The barrier found at 1.3400 region and provide the means for breaking the two-day decline. The price rebounded from the oversold level and continued to make an upward trend. The greens were able to surpass the 1.3470 level after the EU trades. The pair favorably widens its gains and headed to the 1.3540 mark consequent to the break-even of the aforesaid level. The bullish spike softened after testing the 1.3500 region.
Moreover, the pair pass through selling pressure and promptly turn back to the opening price. The price reverse to the 50-EMA as indicated in the 4-hour chart. Moving averages expanded its gains in the same timeframe. Resistance stayed at 1.3470, support hold the 1.3400 region. MACD settled at the centerline of both indicators. An entry on the positive territory will indicate strength for the buyers and the negative zone would imply that sellers will manipulate the market. RSI is in the oversold zone and approached northwards. The USDCAD pair appeared to bullish. The consolidation occurred on top of the 1.3470 level strengthened the position of the buyers.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 18, 2016 Cable was swayed by the continues appreciation of U.S. dollars just like other money. In comparison other currencies, pound was not as affected compared to euro while Aussie has weakened. The strengthening of U.S. dollars seems to persist for some time that is favorable for bulls in the market.
The pound was on lows few weeks ago but was able to recover after U.S. elections relative to Brexit decisions where dealers grasp the concept that there are still chances for to make times come around and this could occur again in the future. Consequently, this has driven investors to go for pound but is still inadequate to keep pound afloat in the midst of U.S. dollars strengthening. Nevertheless, the current market activity kept the trend from going down.
The current surge of U.S. dollars has prompted Fed Governor Yellen to determine the next rate hike this December. However, this caused the pair to decline. If greenback sustained its uptrend, the pair is expected to move towards the 1.2300 level in today’s trading session. The is no major news to be released neither from U.K. nor from U.S. countries.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 18, 2016 The market trend yesterday was pessimistic as it continued going down almost to lower physiological levels. The price activity remained calm with the latest lows during the Asian session. The uptrend was held back as it reached the 1.0750 mark resulting to a decline of the pair.
The Moving Averages stayed a bearish tone while Euro was seen to break in the 50-EMA followed by the retest in 100-EMA chart. The Resistance level is at 1.0750 while the support is seen at 1.0700 level. The technical indicators showed a bearish tone upon entering the negative zone. Both MACD and RSI indicator were seen within the oversold area.
If the pair did not go beyond the 1.0700 mark, the prices might go lower towards the 1.0650 level and will remain consolidated unless it will break at 1.0750 level.
The Eurozone CPI results for October were positive while the monthly CPI failed to meet expectations. The dollar slightly weakened but there are still appreciation seen to new highs. This is because of investors waiting for the next Fed rate hike on December and further strengthening of the economy.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2016 The USD exhibited a steady increase last week along with the US Treasury yields, and this has affected all major currencies across the board specifically the euro and the yen. This has created adverse effects for the EUR especially since the QE has already negatively affected the said currency. The ECB has not yet issued a statement on whether it would be tapering the QE and this has caused the EUR/USD to drop through 1.0800 last week and even dipping through 1.0600 towards the closing of the week. The EUR/USD is currently at its support levels of 1.0580.
The 1.0500-1.0600 is a relatively critical support region, however, whether the pair will be able to maintain its hold on this particular range will be dependent on the yields in the coming weeks. As of now, the USD continues to increase in value while the EUR continues its losing streak and is not showing any signs of apparent strength. The bulls attempted to take hold once the pair hit the 1.0700 range but failed and now the EUR/USD is under total control of the bears.
For this week, ECB’s Draghi is expected to make a speech on Monday but market players are not expecting any vital information from Draghi since the ECB chair is known to only address monetary policy issues when deemed extremely necessary, and the ECB has not yet expressed concerns with regards to the downfall of the euro. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday and this is expected to give hints regarding the December Fed rate hike. If the minutes comes out as positive, then this will further contribute to the strength of the USD.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2016 The USD/CAD pair ranged for the entirety of last week since the sudden surge in the value of the USD seemed to have little if no effect on the currency pair. However, the USD/CAD had one of the tightest ranges as compared to other pairs since the USD/CAD was unable to go beyond 1.3400 and 1.3600 on both the resistance and support side, which was mostly due to the fact that the increase in the value of the USD was mainly offset by the strength of the CAD.
The CAD has been experiencing significant increases since next week due to an increase in oil prices as the OPEC meeting draws nearer. The market is currently putting in optimistic expectations with regards to the meeting, with deals hopefully being made and statements from various stakeholders are showing that this might be the case once the meeting commences. The Canadian economy is expected to get a boost if ever deals regarding oil production cuts are struck especially since the economy is largely dependent on the production of oil.
For this week, the market is expecting the release of Canadian core retail sales data on Tuesday since this is an efficient indicator of Canadian purchasing power and this could give clues with regards to the general direction of the Canadian economy. The minutes of the FOMC meeting is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, and this is expected to give hints regarding the Fed rate hike on December. The USD/CAD continues to be bullish, and the target for the currency pair is expected to be 1.40 in the next few months. The pair is most likely to be drawn to the said target by the impending Fed rate hike as well as an expected rate cut from Canada.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2016 The sterling pound was subject to significant losses since the unexpected strength of the USD has already took hold of the market’s general direction. However, as compared to other major currencies such as the AUD and EUR, the GBP was able to withstand the sudden strength of the USD and its effect on the market. This is because the market is slowly coming to terms with unconventional political moves, which is evident in the Brexit referendum and US elections. The sterling pound was able to become more stable since market players are now seeing Brexit as much less of a risk as compared to before.
For the past week, the GBP has consolidated and stabilized in spite of its bearish bias. This particular bias was somewhat augmented by weak economic data from the UK which was caused by the slowly sinking negative effects of the Brexit referendum as well as the pronounced weakness in the euro. The CPI data for UK came in lower than expected, but the retail sales data for the region came out on a more positive note.
For this week, the GDP report for the UK is expected to be released but since the USD has been constantly increasing as well as US Treasury yields, it is expected that this will have more impact on the currency pair. The US will also be releasing the minutes of the FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday, which is expected to give clues about the upcoming Fed rate hike in December.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 21, 2016 The U.S. dollar subsided for a while but remained strong demonstrated by U.S. Economy that is still on track towards the target numbers. The higher chances and expectations for the next rate hike this December further boosts the dollar.
Hence, the market trend remains positive as it continued to move up on last week's Friday session. The price stayed at an upward direction within its high ceiling. However, the momentum halted at 111.00 level but still was able to revive its record highs overnight.
The moving averages shows a bullish trend. The Resistance level is found at 111.00 while the support comes at 110.00 level. Other technical indicators depicted a positive outlook for the pair supported by buyers as seen in the the MACD. The RSI indicators is close to overbought area that tells a sign to go higher level soon.
The market has to maintain the current level at 110.00 to sustain is bullish tone. It would be favorable for buyers to further expand their gains if the price breaks at 111.00 level. Therefore, the price could further go up to 112.00 mark. As for seller, it is possible to reverse the trend by exerting the price to move lower towards the 109.00 level.
Andrea ForexMart
Official Representative
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 22, 2016 The Japanese yen exhibited significant losses during Monday’s session following the release of a negative-leaning Merchandise Trade Balance data. Meanwhile, the USD has been subject to buying interests due to increasing expectations of an eventual Fed rate hike in December.
Although the USD/JPY pair was unable to increase further and reverted immediately after testing the 111.00 trading range, the currency pair was able to remain in the positive territory during the last trading session. As of now, the pair’s value is still in an upward direction and has somewhat shifted from its previous limit. The pair’s price went slightly higher in the USD/JPY’s 4-hour chart. Resistance levels for the currency pair can be found at 111.00 points, while support levels are expected to be at 110.00 points.
The MACD indicator for USD/JPY dropped, indicating a decrease in buyer positions. The MACD also exhibited a bearish stance for its hourly chart, while the RSI indicator for the pair was able to remain within its overbought readings. If the USD/JPY pair fails to go beyond 111.00, then this could cause the USD to drop in value and plummet to 110.00 points. If the pair breaches the 110.00 range, then this could lead to further decreases up to 109.00 points.
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 22, 2016 The Aussie continues its decline from 0.7778 level as is expected to stayed with the 0.7310 level to 0.7460 level in the following days. However, the climb from 0.7310 level is a form of consolidation. If the resistance level remains strong, the decline will persist and could even go lower at 0.7200 mark. The decline is supported when a break is seen at its Physiological levels.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2016 The expected deal to be made at the OPEC meeting this week helped sustain oil prices and caused the USD/CAD pair to become muted for the majority of the trading session yesterday. The USD/CAD pair experienced a slight drop to 1.3400 points, triggering a decreasing in buying for the said pair. Since the OPEC meeting had a fairly good turnout, with the possibility of a deal being struck close, oil prices rose and this is expected to help in augmenting the strength of the Canadian economy. The effect of this increase in oil prices was reflected in the increase in the value of the CAD and the drop in the value of the USD/CAD pair. The currency pair traded tightly during the Tokyo and London trading sessions but was able to break through once the New York session began, with the pair dropping to 1.3380 where buying opportunities appeared and is now trading just over the 1.3400 range.
For today's trading session, the Canadian core retail sales data is expected to be released later within the day, with the data expected to come in at 0.6%. If the data fails to make it to this particular speculation then this could cause the currency pair increase to 1.3500. However, if the data manages to come in at the expected data then this could trigger a further decrease up to 1.3200. However, the uptrend is expected to continuously dominate the USD/CAD pair so any decrease in its value can be used by traders to buy the USD/CAD pair in the short-term.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 22, 2016 Both the bulls and the bears have been struggling to take control of the EUR/USD pair even though this particular currency pair exhibited little activity during the past trading sessions. However, the USD has once again extended its recent strength, indicating that other USD-related pairs could experience a temporary recovery before again going downwards, and the EUR might find it hard to extend its profits through the 1.0675 trading range.
However, there is a substantial option interest within the 1.0600-1.0659 region and this could lead to the currency pair consolidating between this particular range. The minutes of the FOMC meeting is set to be released on Wednesday, and this particular data is expected to confirm market speculations of a Fed rate hike this coming December. The market expectations for the rate hike is currently at 90%, and speeches and comments from a number of Fed officials including Janet Yellen seem to point towards a confirmation of this rate hike.
However, there is also a possibility that the Fed rate hike might not immediately translate to an added strength in the USD and could possibly weaken the currency if the Federal Reserve refuses to give hints regarding rate hikes for 2017. For today’s trading session, there are no major economic releases expected today from the eurozone and the US, so the EUR/USD pair is expected to consolidate between 1.0600 and 1.0700.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2016 The GBP/USD pair spent the majority of the previous trading session consolidating within the 1.2400 range as the USD kept on alternately losing and gaining its value for the past session. The value of the USD has been significantly uncertain for the past two sessions and this is an expected effect of a bullish market last Monday.
There are no major economic news releases expected for the latter part of November, and this is why a lot of currency pairs have been directed by option expiries and flows instead of fundamentals. The strength of the USD has been mostly attributed to the recent surge in US Treasury yields which was the result of Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections, but US Treasury yields have started tapering off its strength at the start of this week, causing the USD to lose some of its gains as well.
The minutes of the FOMC meeting are scheduled to be released later today, and this is expected to lend some measure of volatility to the GBP/USD pair even though the minutes are expected to confirm market speculations of an impending Fed rate hike this coming December, as well as give a general overview of the Fed’s future interest rate hikes. However, this could also induce a drop in the value of the USD once the minutes give the opposite of the market expectations.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2016 The EUR/USD pair was expected to remain within the 1.0600-1.0650 trading range due to reports of large-scale options placed within this particular region and will remain until the options expire. The options within this range are scheduled to expire within the day and the minutes of the FOMC meeting are set to be released today, and the market is expecting an increase in the volatility of the EUR/USD pair which could possibly extend for the next few days.
There has been no major economic releases from the eurozone or the US from these past few days, and options players wielded their power during this period of low activity by attempting to control the financial market in order to safeguard their option entries. Unless other market players would have a good grasp on these very recent developments in the market, they might not be able to have a full understanding of the market movements during these past trading sessions.
For today’s session, the market is expecting quite a number of economic data to be released, such as the oil inventory data and unemployment claims data from the US. However, majority of market players are now waiting for the FOMC minutes which is scheduled to come out any time during the New York session. The market has a 95% expectation percentage for the December Fed rate hike, and the minutes from the FOMC is expected to confirm this particular speculation. Aside from confirmation of the rate hike, market players are also expecting to get hints regarding future rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. If the data fails to meet market expectations, then the USD could lose its strength and drop significantly.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 23, 2016 The Japanese yen increased in value following the news release regarding the earthquake that hit the country, but quickly retreated after the Bank of Japan released a statement saying that the Japanese economy is still well on its way to improvement. The JPY remained within a tight trading range around multi-month highs during Tuesday’s trading session, with the pricing of the USD/JPY pair staying within the 110.00-110.50 region for the rest of the day. The currency pair was able to trade above its moving averages in its 4-hour chart, with the moving averages sustaining their bullish trend.
Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair are expected to be at 112.00 points, while support levels for the pair are expected to come in at the 111.00 trading range. The MACD indicators for the currency pair weakened, indicating a drop in buyer positions. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators remained within the overbought territory. If the USD/JPY pair manages to sustain its bullishness, then the next short-term aim for the pair is located at 112.00 points. If the USD/JPY pair manages to go beyond this particular level, then the currency pair is expected to extend its gains towards the 113.00 trading range.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: November 23, 2016 In the H4 chart, the price was seen to break at 1.01 handle that pushed the support levels higher within the 1.0155 - 1.0129 levels. The Resistance level showed a weaker stance from 1.02939 to 1.0131 levels. There are some facets to consider to sell this pair. One is the H4 handle steadied at 1.01 handle even though there are offered seen within the supply zone. Another is the uncertainty in the current daily support at 1.0086 mark.
The trend could shift downward when the price closed lower than 1.01 level while there is less volatility. However, when there is a break at 1.0037 daily Quasimodo line, the price could reach the 1.0029 level to 0.9994 and 1.0019 levels. The best stance would be the price lower by 14 pips towards the 1.01 handle then a retest within the resistance zone.
The downward trend will be validated when the price in the H4 chart reached the 1.0086 support level with a probability towards the Quasimodo line.
Major news to be declared today are the U.S. Core durable goods data and U.S. Jobless claims this afternoon while the Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the meeting will be disclosed in the evening.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 24, 2016 The euro together with the greens had bounced again on Wednesday following the strengthening of the USD as it was boosted by the positive data regarding the much reinforced economy of the United States. The pair is sailing smooth during the morning session of the Asia and Europe, however, the inevitable volatility started amid the NY trading session.
The pair tested the level of 1.0600 ahead of the announcement of the Durable Goods data which has a better-than-expected result of 1%. The positive release signaled the market to begin the USD purchase again which enabled the pair to break the 1.0600 and touched 1.0525 prior to the stabilization of the pair that settled below the 1.0550 during closing day.
According to previous readings, the regions 1.0500 and 1.0600 is considered as a stable support for the pair which is also mentioned by profuse large banks, the aforesaid level will be the expected mark for the euro as the year ends.
At present, the price movement emphasized a continuous softening and the Thanksgiving celebration in the United States will not become a driving force for the euro to edged high against the dollar. Technically, the signs bring no good for the EUR, in this way the single currency is kept intact and wait for a strong support which include the 1.0500, 1.0440 and 1.0440 marks until we found a much stable support.
The latest German Ifo Business Climate caused a short period of volatility but things as of this moment remains unaffected. The price action is still on guarded and anticipates for a test within the 1.0500 level in order to recognize the final result whether this movement will progress or not.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 24, 2016 The sterling pound continues to be the sole currency that has survived the far-reaching effects of the USD’s recent surges since the GBP has continuously inched higher against the US dollar even during the US elections. The GBP/USD pair consolidated and range for the majority of yesterday’s sessions but the USD further increased during the opening of the New York session as economic releases from the US such as the Durable Goods data came out exceeding initial market expectations.
The GBP/USD pair initially plummeted towards 1.2350 points but recovered immediately and broke through 1.2400 and is currently resting just below the 1.2450 region. The GBP is currently on the strong side and should the USD exhibit weakness in the coming days, then the GBP/USD is expected to rise to 1.2600 and could possibly go higher.
The FOMC meeting minutes were released yesterday and has confirmed the possibility of a Fed rate hike this coming December especially since its members talked about the urgent need to increase interest rates as soon as possible. The minutes did not add much volatility to the market since it met initial market speculations. For today’s trading session, there are no important economic releases expected from both the US and the UK, and the currency pair is expected to further consolidate with bullish biases enabling it to sustain its position over 1.2400. Market players are slowly regaining their confidence in the sterling pound, and is expected to further increase in the coming sessions.
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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: November 24, 2016 Yen has depreciated resulting to breaks on the top psychological levels as seen on different pairing with yen. However the most sensitive among all those pairs is euro against Japanese yen. There is a tendency for the European Quantitative Easing could further decline the Euro in the coming weeks. If this persists with the Resistance levels sitting atop the price movement, it is best for traders to be careful with their next move.
The psychological level at 120 handle is significant for this pair which is 10 pips further than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement considered as a 16-year move for the pair. Those who are waiting to trade in higher levels, they could suspend their trading until there is a clean break seen until the bulls could push the price higher. This could become an opening to look for new psychological levels in the next move.
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: November 24, 2016 The Canadian dollar against greenbacks moves in a consolidated state close to low psychological levels. The next move could be a rebound to 1.3500 level as what happened yesterday. There is less volatility in the market during the Asian and Euro trading session but it there has been a high activity during the U.S. session in preparation for Thanksgiving holiday which was further supported by the strong U.S. economic data.
The pair bounced higher than 1.34 level next to 1.35 level towards 1.3525 zone. This was induced by the reports from Iraq requesting to cut output of oil producers while balancing the market supply and demand. The current demand is stable while the oil price is predicted to climbed in the next days to come. This cause the loonie to rally and strengthen yesterday and retreated at the same time. The pair moves in an uptrend reaching 1.35 handle although it moves in a slow pace.
There is no major economic news for today from U.S. or Canada area. Hence, the current trend will remain bullish and consolidated.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 28, 2016 The GBP/USD exhibited a generally bullish stance last week as the sterling pound continued to counter the recent strengthening of the USD, with the GBP the lone currency that has held its ground against the ever-increasing value of the USD. The strong stance of the GBP is reflective of the currency settling as the invocation of Article 50 draws nearer and after a positive reaction from the markets after the high court has ruled that the Parliament will have to go through a debate and discussion before pushing through with the said article. This has resulted into the market receiving assurance that the UK economy will be well taken care of as the region goes through the Brexit process.
This has caused the GBP/USD pair to continuously consolidate on both sides of the 1.2500 region in spite of the added strength of the USD. The GBP did not experience much volatility for the past week as the Hammond Autumn statement predicted a somewhat negative forecast for the UK economy for the next two years, thereby meeting general market expectations.
However, for this week, the currency pair is expected to experience added volatility as currency flows are more likely to have an effect on the value of the sterling pound. The NFP employment report from the US is also expected to determine whether the Fed will be increasing the frequency of its rate hikes this coming 2017.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 28, 2016 The USD/CAD pair was consolidating and trading in a tight range last week, with the strength of the USD being countered by equally-strong loonie. However, the currency pair briefly dropped at the 1.3380 trading range but closed down the week on a much higher note at 1.3600 points. The USD/CAD exhibited active fluctuations throughout the week but were quickly reversed after sellers and buyers both struggled to take control of the currency pair.
The USD had remarkable strength for the past three weeks ever since the results of the US elections, while the increasing value of the CAD was largely attributed to highly positive economic data from the Canadian economy, as well as the continued buoyancy of oil prices. The OPEC is set to have a meeting this coming November 30 and the organization is expected to produce a deal between oil producers with regards to production cuts, with producers expected to be in support of a production cut, which has boosted the CAD and has kept the USD/CAD pair in line.
For this week, the market is expecting the OPEC meeting and if the results of the said meeting turn out to be positive, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly go upwards to 1.3400 and could even go further at 1.3300 points. For the US, the NFP employment report is also slated to be released within the week, and if this particular data turns out to be positive, then this could be an indicator for the market as to whether the Fed would be increasing the frequency of its rate hikes for next year which could further strengthen the greenback.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 28, 2016 The USD has just clinched its highest trading range for eight straight months against the JPY after the US bond yields continued to surge during the Asian trading session after the US market holiday. The ascending trend for the currency pair continued, with the price of the pair extending beyond its upper limit at 114.00 points before inching lower. The downward direction of the pair caused it to lose momentum at the 113.00 trading range during the start of the London session and remained until the end of the session. The pair’s 1-hour chart encountered its barrier at the 50 EMA, lending a strong support for the currency pair.
The moving averages for the currency pair maintained its bullish stance within its set timeframe. The pair’s resistance levels are expected to be at 114.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 113.00. The MACD indicators for the currency pair weakened, indicating a decrease in buyer positions. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators have already left the overbought range.
The USD/JPY is expected to go beyond the upward channel if the pair would be able to go lower than 112.00. In order to diminish the effect of the present upward pressure, sellers will have to induce the pricing of the pair to go lower than 111.00. Or else a move towards 113.00 will cause a positive reaction and could trigger the pair to reach the 114.00 trading region.
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Andrea ForexMart
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: November 28, 2016 Base metals, ore, in particular, presented a positive outlook on Friday which supported the Aussie to strengthen. The AUDUSD were able to expand its short-term upward trajectory and made a higher high on the same day.
The AUD entered the 0.7450 level but suddenly fell flat to reclaim it. The pair tested the level, moved lower and stayed within the 0.7450 region ahead of the opening of NY session. Both Aussie and greens made a reversal from its daily high and rebounded to the area of 0.7400 amid the North American trading session.
According to in the 4-hour chart, the pair broke the bearish 50-EMA whereas the indicator’s growth appears to be sluggish. Moving averages (50, 100 and 200 EMAs) expanded its declines as shown in the same time chart. Current resistance can be found at 0.7450, support pierced the 0.7400 region. MACD arrived in the positive zone. RSI accelerated touching the overbought territory.
There is a possibility for the pair to continue an upward trajectory near the 0.7500 when it breaks the level on top of the 0.7450. Should the pair stayed down from the 0.450, the price will edged lower and reverse its gains. In light of this, sellers were able to push the price towards 0.7350 and 0.7300.
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Andrea ForexMart
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016 The USD further dropped in relation to the JPY due to ambiguities surrounding oncoming economic events such as the release of the Non-farm Payrolls data and the minutes of the OPEC meeting, prompting a lot of investors to clamp down on their deals. The pricing of the USD/JPY pair sustained its upward direction during Monday’s trading session but remained within its lower levels and made small reversions during the Tokyo session. However, as the European session opened, the currency pair started speeding up its increase and ultimately reverted back to 113.00 just before the start of the New York session.
The hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair showed that its pricing was able to go beyond the 100 EMA during the middle of the London session and tested the 50 EMA towards the closing of the London session. The currency pair’s 200 and 100 EMAs went up further while the 50 EMA slowly went towards the neutral territory in the same chart. The resistance levels for the USD/JPY is expected to be at 113.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 112.00.
The MACD indicators for the currency pair inched higher, indicating an added strength in buyer positions. Its RSI indicators also moved upwards. For this week, the USD/JPY is expected to make a comeback, with the first bull target slated to be at 113.00 points. If the pair manages to reach this level, then the pair could possibly extend its gains toward 114.00 points.
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Andrea ForexMart
Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016 The remarks made by Mario Draghi was the center of attraction of the market yesterday. As investors anticipated for an improvement in policy and economy, as well as other concerns related with the June 23 referendum. Meanwhile, bears became active again this time. The previous recovery loses its gains around the 1.0700 region. The pair withdrawn from its recent highs and lowered down towards 1.0650 level amid post-EU hours. Moreover, seller's maneuvered the price near the 1.0600 during the EU session. The price pushed the 200-EMA below and found a barrier within the 50 and 100 EMAs as indicated in the 1-hour chart. The 200-day moving averages headed downwards, the 100-day average has established a neutral stance and the 50-day heightened. The resistance settled at 1.0650, support entered the 1.0600 level. The MACD increased and specified weaker position for the sellers. RSI headed southwards.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2016 The GBP/USD pair was subject to downward pressure during the previous trading session as monthly cash flows combined with a slight increase in the USD triggered the pair to drop from its highs of 1.2500 to just below 1.2400 points. Every month, the market always expects added selling pressure for the GBP since the UK pays its EU membership fees every month. As a result, the value of the EUR/GBP increases, and the GBP becomes subject to significant losses.
There are also some speculations that the Brexit process will be subject to a number of legal challenges which could cause the process to be delayed altogether, and the schedule of events for the Brexit process could possibly go haywire. The UK government is also questioning the decision of the High Court for a Parliament debate first before pushing through with the Brexit process, while the Parliament is already preparing for the said debate just in case that the High Court refuses to overrule its previous decision on the Brexit process. The strength of the GBP would definitely be affected by these expected delays in the Brexit process and could have an adverse effect on the UK economy in general.
For today’s trading session, there is no major economic news expected from the UK. However, the US will be releasing its Advanced GDP data and this could increase the market volatility, with a consolidation possibly happening together with a bearish stance.
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: November 29, 2016 The pair USD/CAD has been on a spree but with no direction since OPEC hasn’t reached an agreement yet. Oil prices came at a low price yesterday morning the reports came in at the afternoon with Iraq would participate alongside with other OPEC members in reducing production output but there are also reports saying the opposite where countries like Iran and Iraq have no plan of any production cuts.
Loonies are dependent to the oil market pricing as it strengthens relative the oil prices. The pair was seen to begin trading at 1.3500 level then later set in close to the support at 1.3400 after the news has been released. It ranges from 1.34 handle to 1.3450 as the market is not definite on what will happen next that makes the market undecided. What happened on September may occur again where OPEC decided on the last minute.
The Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz had a speech this morning in a positive tone inciting the economy is improving and getting stronger. As the loonies continue to appreciate this keeps the tension up trading in this pair with high volatility while the market still awaits on the outcome of tomorrow’s OPEC meeting.
We had the BOC Governor Poloz speaking early today and he did sound generally very positive about the economy and expressed that the data is slowly getting better which means that the economy is getting stronger as time rolls on. This also added to the CAD strength and helped to keep the pair under pressure. It is expected to have ample liquidity today and tomorrow however if the reverse happens, then the pair will price higher and the Canadian dollar will depreciate.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 30, 2016 According to the previous forecasts, the EURUSD persist in having a slow growth and it used the 1.0580 as its base. The pair were able to break the 1.0600 region overnight and settled down from the 1.0650 as of the moment. Later this day, the solid resistance seen at 1.0685 will be challenged and the price trend will be the basis for the possible uptrend of the pair.
The pair is able to rose because of the mild weakening of the USD felt all over, the instability is considered as mild since violent movements are nowhere to be seen among any currency pair. As the end of the month approach, we expect month-end flows to prevail the money flow for today. Despite the positive results of US economic data, GDP and CCI, the dollar continues to soften for the past 24 hours. The fluctuation is caused by the fear of the market regarding President-elect Donald Trump’s unsure policies. Trump is seen posting his opinions using his Twitter account which represents a not so good habit for someone who is the leader of a state.
We are expecting for Draghi's remarks for today and we suppose that his speech won’t complicate the market or either trigger volatility. We also look forward to the EUR/USD to execute trades at higher ranges characterized with a bullish sentiment.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 30, 2016 The U.S dollar has softened since Monday while the pound also endures weakness since the week starts as it edged lower because of the end-of-month flows and due to the EU membership payments plus other driving factors.
Yesterday, the sterling established further strengthening and rebounded towards 1.2400 region and reached beyond 1.2540 level before the cable pair settled down from the 1.2500 area and this increase would be better as the weakening of the dollar continues.
The instability of the greenbacks is felt globally though other currencies remains exempted dollar’s softening. The sluggish stance is not a result of weak services data or any fundamentals but more about the market’s weariness regarding the new president of the United States who has the habit of expressing his thoughts whenever he wants to. This way the markets are uncertain about what he’s going to declare any moment.
Furthermore, we are looking forward bank stress test results from the UK. In case that the bank has favorable result we expect for additional strength for the pound which would put the GBP/USD as far as the 1.2500 region. We also await for the ADP Employment data and if the result is less than the expected, the greens will suffer another round of reduction because this report is the main indicator for the NFP on Friday.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2016 The pound remains strong brought by the recent surge that conversely weakened the U.S. dollar. Traders attempting to reach between the 1.27 and 1.2750 range in today’s session. This gives a positive outlook for the pair with U.S. yields declining and greenback remaining weak.
The published results of the Services PMI gave high numbers at 54.2, even more than the expected value of 55.2. This indicates the continuous growth of Britain’s economy despite leaving the European Union. Concerns regarding Brexit especially the negotiations about Article 50 is still pending on what will E.U. gain from U.K. and what will those Euro leaders offer in return. Britain sees the free market access will continue while Euro leaders are careful with the negotiations as it might be taken advantage by other countries. Once the data will be released since negotiations then the U.K. economy can be finalized.
There is no major news to be published from U.K. then, the current price trend will continue. Traders could move the rate towards the 1.2800 level if the greenback continues to depreciate. It is quite difficult to reach the 1.30 mark with the downtrend being strong. If the rebound ends, the price could further go down.
Andrea ForexMart
Official Representative
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2016 The USD/CAD consolidated and tailed the direction of oil prices during the previous trading session, with the Canadian dollar slightly easing in value after oil prices displayed corrections during the trading session. The Canadian Trade Balance data also came out yesterday and exceeded initial market expectations which helped augment the value of the CAD. The currency pair mainly consolidated on both sides of the 1.3300 trading range.
The market is expecting the Federal Reserve meeting this coming mid-December, and although the Fed rate hike this December is basically minted within the market, market players are now more interested with regards to hints and guidances on the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes next year. The USD/CAD pair is expected to undergo an increase in pressure a few days prior to the Fed meeting since crude oil prices are a major factor in this issue, and another bullish stance is expected for oil prices in the coming days.
For today’s trading session, Canada is set to release a rate statement from the Bank of Canada, where the BOC is expected to maintain its rates and could give traders more insight with regards to the central bank’s stance with regards to the overall feel of the Canadian economy. Traders are expecting some hints with regards to the BOC’s views on future rate cut backs in the coming months, particularly next year.
Andrea ForexMart
Official Representative
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 7, 2016 The GBP/USD pair mostly consolidated and ranged on both sides of 1.2700 points since there was no major economic news release from the UK which could compel the pair to move, and this is why the currency pair had a muted session yesterday. However, since the Federal Reserve’s meeting is expected to induce volatility in the financial market, especially since the Fed is expected to announce its much-anticipated rate hike in this particular meeting. Market players are also expecting to receive hints with regards to the central bank’s future rate hikes in order to determine the USD’s direction in the short run. However, if the meeting fails to give out hints with regards to the bank’s future moves, then this could induce a weakness in the US dollar.
Meanwhile, the UK is currently bearing the brunt of the Brexit process, which is expected to last for a couple of years since this will most likely involve heated discussions with leaders from all over the eurozone in order to send out a warning to other EU countries wanting to go in the same direction as the UK.
For today’s trading session, the UK Manufacturing Production data is set to be released during the European session, and market players are expecting the data to come out as positive. If the data does come out as highly positive, then traders can expect the pair to hit 1.2800 points. Otherwise, the pair could continue consolidating on both sides of the 1.2700 region.
Andrea ForexMart
Official Representative
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: December 9, 2016 The USD/CAD is currently still subject to increased pressure after crude oil prices surged during yesterday’s trading session. The currency pair is expected to experience this particular pressure as long as oil prices continue to fluctuate and would only cease once crude oil prices reach equilibrium. If this phenomenon happens, then the strength of the USD would most likely dominate the currency pair, and the weak value of the CAD would cause the currency pair to increase in value.
Although the Canadian dollar is currently strengthening, its price is expected to drop once crude oil prices stop its fluctuations and cease from moving upwards, especially since certain issues with the NAFTA agreement will be reopened due to Trump’s re-negotiation, and any changes with this particular agreement would have a significant effect on the trade relationships between Canada and US. The CAD could also weaken due to minor market speculations that the Bank of Canada would be implementing rate cuts next year, and unless the currency pair manages to break through 1.3000, then the USD/CAD will continue to be on the upward trend with a target of 1.4000 points.
There are no major economic news releases expected from the Canadian economy for today’s trading session, and while the US will be releasing its UoM Consumer Sentiment data, this particular piece of news from the region is not expected to have a major impact on the market in general. Market players will now be shifting their focus to US yields, as well as on the scheduled Fed meeting next week, where the Fed is expected to finally implement its much-awaited interest rate hike. However, this event does not automatically translate to an increase in the value of the USD, but the market is expected to receive hints with regards to the Fed’s rate hikes this coming 2017.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 9, 2016 The GBP/USD pair consolidated poorly during yesterday’s trading session after the sterling pound was adversely affected by the recent sharp drop in the value of the euro. The previous trading session initially started on a positive note for the GBP after it managed to regain some of its previous losses, causing the currency pair to hit 1.2700 points during the Tokyo and European trading session. However, the release of the ECB announcement caused the euro to incur massive losses, with the EUR/GBP pair experiencing devaluation. This then triggered the GBP/USD to retreat from 1.2700 and is currently hovering at the 1.2600 region.
The GBP/USD is expected to consolidate further with a somewhat bearish note as the euro tries to recover from this very significant loss of value. The Federal Reserve will be meeting at the start of next week, and the market currently has rate hike expectations of up to 0.25%. The dollar is then expected to exhibit weakness once the announcement from the Fed is released, and market liquidity is also expected to be relatively low during this particular period.
For today’s trading session, there are no major economic news releases from the UK, and the GBP/USD would most likely consolidate further along with a bearish stance and will be subject to added downward pressure due to the recent weakness in the value of the EUR.
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 12, 2016 The GBP/USD pair had a lackluster performance during the entirety of last week’s trading sessions since the sterling pound experienced constant pressure from the much stronger euro. The EUR plummeted last week after the ECB announced its plans to extend its quantitative easing program, and the EUR/GBP lost a significant amount of its value, causing the sterling pound to be affected as well. Prior to this sudden drop in value, the GBP has previously exhibited remarkable resiliency in spite of the confusion caused by the Brexit process. The GBP rose during the first part of last week and was even able to go through 1.2700 points before eventually reaching 1.2800 points before the announcement from the ECB dragged the GBP down.
The GBP was also subject to added pressure due to delays in the implementation of the Brexit strategies as the Parliament is in the middle of heated debates regarding the implementation of Article 50 on the region. Since the timeline for the Brexit remains uncertain in spite of numerous meetings and debates within the Parliament, the sterling pound is expected to remain under pressure and any form of reversion should be immediately seen as a sell-off opportunity for the currency pair.
For this week, the market is expecting the release of the CPI data as well as the Claimant count change data from the from the UK. The Bank of England is also expected to make a statement on whether the central bank would be maintaining its current interest rate of 0.25%, and the Fed is also scheduled to make an announcement regarding its interest rate hike, as well as a statement on whether the central bank will be adding up the frequency of its rate hikes next year. Due to the large number of economic data scheduled to be released this week, the market is expected to undergo an especially high level of volatility within the week.
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