LandOfCash Forex expert advisors, Trailing EA, Indicators.

Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

LOCTrailing With Partial Close Expert Advisor protect your orders profit. Trail stop level for manual and automatic orders with different algorithms, move stop loss into breakeven.

LOCInfo Custom Indicator follow the simple rules and make the right decision when to buy or sell. View Moving Average, Stochastic indicators from multiple time frames in one place.

Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 06 - 10, 2021



EUR/USD: Falling Dollar and Rising Risk Appetite

UserPostedImage


The majority is not always right. Thus, only 30% of the experts voted for EUR/USD to grow to 1.1900 last week. But they were the ones who proved right. After the release of data from the US labour market on Friday 03 September, the pair soared to a height of 1.1908, and finished five days at 1.1880. The weakening of the US currency continues after Fed chief Jerome Powell's dovish statements in Jackson Hole and amid uncertainty with the timing of the beginning to wind down the fiscal stimulation program (QE).

Fed management cites sustained improvement in the employment situation as a major condition for reducing stimulus. However, ADP data on changes in the number of US private sector employment released on Wednesday was significantly worse than expected, with 374K instead of the projected 613K. Such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in August outside the agricultural sector (NFP) added pessimism: the real figure was 3.2 times lower than the forecast (235K instead of 750K). And this despite the fact that the NFP was 1053K in July. All this suggests strongly that the pace of recovery in the US economy is falling, and it is too early to talk of the start of QE reduction and, even more so, of an interest rate rise on the dollar.

As a result, the DXY dollar index (the ratio of USD to a basket of six major foreign currencies) has dropped from 93.63 to 92.07 since August 20, while risk sentiment in the market, on the contrary, has increased. The S&P500 stock index continues to update historic highs, and its chart resembles a north-easterly straight now. It is very similar to the one drawn by the martingale-based expert advisor until... a collapse occurs. A number of experts predict the fate of a bursting bubble in the future for the stock market as well.

As for the EUR/USD pair's future, only 35% of the experts surveyed vote for its continued growth, 20% vote for the pair's fall. The remaining 45% have taken a neutral position in anticipation of clearer signals from the US Federal Reserve regarding the start of QE curtailment.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 85% point north, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 75% are directed upward (note that there were only 20% of those a week earlier). Support levels are 1.1845, 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. Resistance levels are 1.1910, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

As for the events of the coming week, the release on September 7 of the data on GDP of the Eurozone for Q2 should be noted. The forecast here is disappointing: it is expected to fall 0.6% compared to a 2.0% increase in the previous period. The ECB's interest rate decision will be known on Thursday September 09, but it is very likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, a subsequent press conference by the European regulator's leadership will be of much greater interest. Finally, Germany's HICP, the Consumer Price Index, which estimates the inflation rate of the country that is the locomotive of the European economy, will be unveiled on Friday, September 10.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

We called this part of the review “Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes” last time and we left the title unchanged this week. Because nothing that would initiate an independent movement of the GBP/USD pair has happened. Just like the European currency, and for the same reasons, the British one has been growing against the dollar since August 20. The two-week high was reached on September 03 at 1.3890, and the last chord of the trading session sounded at 1.3865.

The pair is currently in the central part of the 1.3800-1.4000 channel, where it appears periodically since February 2021. If it goes north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at the level of 1.3960, then 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (20% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 20% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are colored green, 20% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, greens win with a score of 9:1.

As we know, the main indicators of economic recovery and the signal for the start of contraction of monetary stimulus programs are two factors: labour market health and inflation. That is why it is worth paying attention this week to the hearing of the UK Inflation Report, which will take place on Friday September 10.

USD/JPY: Most Unflappable Pair

As a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.80, it first dropped by 20 points, then rose by 80, then dropped again and ended the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.70.

Even the statement of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga about his intention to resign could not influence the yen rate. His popularity was hit by the Tokyo Olympics this summer. Many considered their hosting not a celebration of sport but a fueling of another wave of coronovirus, leaving COVID-19 incidence in the country now three times higher than during the previous waves.

A number of experts consider the departure of Yoshihide Suga a harbinger of possible changes in the economic policy of the Japanese government, in connection with which the Nikkei index rose by 2%, but the yen rate decided not to react to this, showing a truly icy calm.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 35% of them side with the bulls, 45% - with the bears, and 20% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, here it is still impossible to give priority to any of the directions.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 109.85, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum vs Bitcoin

Amid the continued weakening of the dollar and rising risk appetite, the BTC/USD pair is trying to gain a foothold above the important psychological level of $50,000 for the second week. It broke through this resistance for the third time and reached $51.085 at the time of this writing, on Friday September 03.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index added just 1 point for the week, rising from 71 to 74. But the total crypto market capitalization has grown from $2.021 trillion to $2.275 trillion. And the core cryptocurrency accounts for only about $58bn: bitcoin's dominance continues to decline. It fell from 43.77% to 41.41% in seven days, while ethereum is improving its position step by step. So, if the share of ETH was 18.07% of the total market capitalization on August 28, it was already 20.45% on September 03.

Many analysts and influencers continue to sing difirambs to ethereum, preening that it will push bitcoin back to the second line at some point. A week ago, we cited the opinion of the creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, who expects the price of ETH to reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of the coin will rise to $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all major technology companies in the world.

Analyst Aaron Arnold agrees with Buterin. In his YouTube channel (952 thousand subscribers) he named the fundamental factors that, in his opinion, will provoke the "explosive" growth of ethereum. The expert considers a key feature the recent change in the altcoin blockchain, which introduced a digital coin burning mechanism. The London update was released on ethereum network on August 05, which completely changed the transaction fee mechanism. A portion of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is now burned. According to the Ultrasound.Money service, more than 174,000 coins worth more than $565 million have been burned since the activation of this update. The average burning rate is 3.77 coins per minute.

The analyst named the decrease in net inflation in Ethereum as the second growth factor. According to Arnold's calculations, it is only 1.1% in annual terms at the moment, while the same indicator for bitcoin is at the level of 1.75%.

Arnold also recalled the multiple growth of funds blocked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. In his view, this is the third factor that contributes to ethereum's price hike. According to DeFi Pulse, if the volume of blocked funds was $16 billion on January 1 of this year, this figure had already reached $82 billion by August 30 (an increase of 412% since the beginning of the year).

It should be noted that the dynamics of recent months confirms the rosy forecasts for ethereum in full. If BTC has risen in price by about 72% since July 20, ETH has grown by 130%. In the last week alone, this altcoin is up 22%, while bitcoin is up just 2.5%. The advantage of ethereum is also obvious at a distance of 12 months: plus 820% for ETH, plus 350% for BTC.

If Vitalik Buterin predicts the growth of his brainchild to $30,000, you can still hear the figure of $100,000 in the forecasts for the BTC/USD pair. It is exactly the height that British analyst and Northstar & Badcharts co-founder Kevin Wadsworth believes the pair will reach before the end of 2021. After that, the current bullish stage for the cryptocurrency will be completed.

Speaking of the first cryptocurrency, Wadsworth believes that its value will increase "in September, October and, presumably, in November." Some of the leading altcoins (such as ethereum), he said, could also rise significantly, since a rise in prices by 3-4 times is quite likely.

PlanB analyst is also confident that BTC will break the $100,000 level by Christmas. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model.

Bitcoin's prospects for further growth are also indicated by year analysis of cryptocurrency behavior. Analysts at Twitter Root channel are confident that the main driver of BTC is halvings (a 2-time reduction in mining awards). They form a shortage of coins in the market, which positively affects the value of a digital asset. As for bitcoin, it has yet to fulfil the growth potential that halving put into it in May 2020.

Another growth driver, besides halving, is the US Federal Reserve's full-fledged printing press. Moreover, both corporations and individuals get substantial chunks of this dollar "pie". CNBC revealed that 11 per cent of young US residents have invested some of the capital they received in the form of assistance from the state during the COVID-19 pandemic in bitcoin and other coins. And 60 per cent of them are set to hold the asset long-term.

On the other hand, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and the "golden beetle" Peter Schiff, said that he considers those who hold and do not sell bitcoins to be "real idiots". Investor John Paulson expressed a similar opinion. This billionaire called cryptocurrency a "bubble" in an interview with Bloomberg. In his view, the digital asset market will “ultimately prove worthless,” so it is not worth investing in it. “Cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. If the demand is greater than the limited supply, the price will rise. But, if demand falls, the price will also fall. None of the cryptocurrencies have intrinsic value,” Paulson explained his point.

And in conclusion, as usual, our not very serious section of life hacks with another piece of advice on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that you just need to purchase an electric car of the IM brand for this. Backed by the Internet giant Alibaba, electric car maker Zhiji Auto has developed an app for car owners to earn digital currency per mileage traveled.

Motorists will have to enter information about each kilometer they run in order to enter the mining pool. They will receive the Stone digital currency as a reward. The company plans to issue 500 coins 144 times a day for a start. The issue will be halved every four years to maintain liquidity.

The asset can be exchanged for various services of the company. When the car's mileage reaches 5,000 km, its owner will be able to purchase a next-generation smart driving system for coins or increase the battery capacity to 120 kWh.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
NordFX Sums up August: British Pound Back at Peak Popularity



UserPostedImage


NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the last summer month of 2021.

The leader was once again a trader from India, account No.1584XXX, earning a profit of 326,278 USD. This impressive amount was earned through numerous trades on the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF) and Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD) pairs.

The representative of China (account No.1397XXX) moved from third to second place with a profit of 210,308 USD, also obtained through trading operations with the British currency (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs). Recall that their result was 179,327 USD in July.

This time the third step of the podium was taken by a NordFX client from Vietnam (account No.1416XXX) who earned 85,467 USD using XAU/USD, AUD/ JPY and... of course still the same pair GBP/USD as trading instruments.

The passive investment services:

- BangBigBossTop1 and EAs for Life signals remain among the leaders in CopyTrading for the second month in a row.

BangBigBossTop1 almost doubled its result over the past month, raising the signal yield from 398% to 729%. At the same time, the maximum drawdown remained the same at 55%. This failure occurred on the first day of summer, June 01, after which the yield curve is creeping upward. However, 55% is a quite serious drawdown, so the signal is still in the high-risk group.

The EAs for Life signal has shown a return of 1602% from November 2020 up to now. However, at the very start, on November 19, the maximum drawdown reached 75%, which is why it can also be classified as high-risk. Interestingly, almost 70% of trades on this signal are all on the same GBP/USD pair.

- Those investors who prefer minimal or moderate risk may find the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA in the NordFX PAMM service, interesting. This manager has increased their capital by 37% at a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other low-risk offers in the PAMM-service as well. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 were 21% over five months with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 23,498 USD, was credited in August to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received 6,608 USD;
- and, finally, their colleague from the Middle East (account no. 1569XXX), who earned 3,688 USD in commissions, closes the top three.
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews of the Week

UserPostedImage


- El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. President Nayib Bukele tweeted about this three minutes before midnight local time. “In three minutes, we will go down in history,” wrote Bukele.
Earlier, the head of state confirmed that the government of El Salvador acquired the first 200 BTC. The purchase is part of a new $150m fund approved by the authorities to secure the exchange of bitcoin and dollars.

- Bitcoin has been growing since July 20. And so, on the news that BTC became the official currency of El Salvador, its quotes fell 18% on Tuesday September 7, from $52,870 to $43,205, dragging down the entire crypto market.
The World Bank refused to support El Salvador in accepting bitcoin as a legal tender, and leading rating agencies such as Fitch were quick to point out the weaknesses of the country's government's move. In particular, El Salvador's insurance industry will be hit. Bonds rated B- are already circulating in it, and now the situation will be aggravated by the presence of an unstable cryptocurrency.
At the time of writing this review, the leading cryptocurrency has managed to win back some of its losses, and it is trading at around $46,500 per coin.

- Standard Chartered Global Banking Group analysts have been positive about the prospects for bitcoin and ethereum. The team of researchers compared ethereum to the financial market, where lending, insurance and exchange transactions take place. Bitcoin, in their opinion, is more like a currency. Therefore, given the wider range of ETH use cases, its capitalization may eventually reach the first cryptocurrency.
Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin prices in the $50,000-$175,000 range and ethereum in the $26,000-$35,000 range. Thus, these cryptocurrencies should grow threefold and tenfold, respectively. “While the return on ETH may outperform BTC in the future, the risks are also higher,” the bank said.

- Three-time National Basketball Association of North America (NBA) champion Stephen Curry asked Twitter users for advice on cryptocurrencies. “Just starting to play the crypto game... Do you have any advice? ', wrote the athlete. Several prominent crypto industry participants reacted to the tweet. MicroStrategy chief Michael Saylor said he spent a lot of time thinking about the issue, “and chose bitcoin.” “I bought over $3 billion worth of bitcoin as I consider it the future of digital property,” Saylor wrote.

- Senior strategist Mike McGlone called the $100,000 mark for bitcoin and the $5,000 mark for ethereum as "the path of least resistance" in the September Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report. “Crypto assets are entering a renewed second-half bull market after a serious drop from previous highs,” the Bloomberg expert noted.
He also characterized investment portfolios that do not have any of these cryptocurrencies as vulnerable. “We envision the future of bitcoin as a digital reserve asset that complements the dollar,” McGlone concluded.

- Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood suggested that the cryptocurrency market is far from ending its rally. Despite the recent rally, the markets show no signs of a price bubble, she said. “We think bitcoin is much more than a store of value or digital gold. This is a new global monetary system that is completely decentralized and not subject to politicians' whims".
The top executive added that cryptocurrencies have become a generational phenomenon that evolves as technology advances. “The average investor does not understand how provocative the next five to fifteen years will be, as these S-curves feed off each other and enter exponential growth trajectories that we have not seen before,” says Wood.
At the same time, the expert believes that regulation is necessary for the maturity of the sector, which will affect bitcoin in the most positive way.

- US-based Crypto Asset Recovery company specializes in guessing “hundreds of millions or billions” of passwords. Its experts have concluded that bitcoin wallets whose passwords have been lost by their owners currently store billions of dollars’ worth of coins. At the same time, access to approximately 68-90 thousand BTC can be restored. This is about $4 billion at current prices.
According to a report from another company, Chainalsis, up to 20% of the existing 18.5 million bitcoins have been lost.

- According to the latest research, 17% of Australians own cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is the most popular digital asset, with Ethereum, Dogecoin and Bitcoin Cash taking the second, third and fourth places.
The majority of holders (30%) reported that they purchased crypto assets in order to diversify their portfolio. Second on the list of reasons (24%) was the rise in the price of bitcoins and altcoins. There are twice as many men as women among cryptocurrency holders. This is while the number of women holding crypto wallets has doubled since the beginning of the year.

- The management of the billionaire Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust believes that bitcoin has significant growth potential, as this asset can act as a digital analogue of gold.
Miller Opportunity Trust has recently announced the purchase of 1.5 million shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund for $44.7 million. The report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) notes that the investment was made in anticipation of the asset's growth. Fund strategists and analysts have been monitoring bitcoin performance for a long time and chose the best time to buy.
“Bitcoin has been falling this quarter and the trust's shares have been traded at a significant discount to the value of the underlying asset, providing additional upside potential. While gold has a capitalization of $11 trillion, bitcoin only reaches $900 billion, a significant lag. We are in the early days of bitcoin adoption and the asset will be very volatile, but we believe the risk-to-reward ratio is attractive,” Miller Opportunity Trust said in a statement.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Traders Association Recognizes NordFX Customer Support as Best Service of 202



UserPostedImage


What is the most important thing for a broker? Is it money? No, it isn't. Is it computers and software? It is not either. The most important thing is the clients, their trust, and their satisfaction with the level of services received. Therefore, the awards that the broker receives from traders' associations are of particular value. This is exactly the award from the Forex Traders Association, which has recognized NordFX Customer Support as the best in 2021.

Forex Traders Association (FTA) is a grassroots organization of 89 affiliates in America, Europe and Asia. FTA members represent individuals employed in the financial services industry across varying business models. FTA educates its members on market structure issues while representing their interests with legislators, regulators, and other industry associations. FTA events keep attendees informed on industry trends and provide unique networking opportunities, which contribute to career development and productivity. FTA is committed to promoting goodwill and fostering high standards of integrity in accord with its founding principle, dictum meum pactum, my word is my bond.

Since 2017, the members of this association have been evaluating various financial institutions in a wide variety of categories. And this year, 2021, NordFX has won in such an important category as Customer Support.

Customer Support can be called the face of the company, since it is this service that traders have to contact most often, addressing the most pressing issues related to opening an account, specifics of trading and investing, payments and partnerships. It is very important that this support is prompt and skilled. And in such a large international company as NordFX, it is also multilingual.

Over the years, traders from almost 190 countries have opened their accounts with NordFX, and it is very important that they communicate with the company representatives in a language they understand. You can currently ask your questions and get answers in 12 most popular and widespread languages. This can be done in a variety of ways: by phone, email, online chat, on forums and on social media, choosing the most convenient one. According to the assurances of the Customer Support experts, they will be glad not only to answer your questions, but also to hear criticisms and wishes. After all, it is so important not to rest on what you have achieved, but to constantly move forward.
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 13 - 17, 20211



EUR/USD: Eurozone QE Recalibration

The ECB meeting on Thursday 09 September went off as expected with no surprises. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. The European regulator has proposed a “dovish” reduction in the monetary stimulus program (QE). More precisely, according to Christine Lagarde, the bank's governor, it is not even about “tapering” but “recalibrating” the program. And the decline in asset purchases in Q4 is just a reversal of the decision made in March to increase them. In doing so, the ECB remains flexible, and may change the pace of purchases early next year if necessary.

It is likely that the regulator does not want to take any sharp moves until its meeting in December, when it will have to present a clearer plan to wind down QE. In the meantime, it will monitor the development of the situation. The results of the parliamentary election in Germany, which will be held on September 26, will be of great importance. Especially since this will be the first election since 2005 in which the Christian Democratic Union will not be led by Angela Merkel.

In addition to the “recalibration” decision, the ECB raised its 2021 forecast for Eurozone GDP from 4.6% to 5.0% and for inflation from 1.9% to 2.2%. At the same time, the bank expects consumer price growth to fall to 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. This suggests that its ultra soft monetary policy will last for a very long time. And there is no need to talk about raising interest rates earlier than the end of 2023 - early 2024.

Economic growth sides with the bulls on the EUR/USD pair, while the monetary policy sides with the bears. There have been no clear signals from the ECB, and they are unlikely to arrive until December. Therefore, the market will still be waiting for them from the US Fed to decide which currency to prefer.

The long life of the European QE program has been mentioned above. The Federal Reserve may begin to cut its QE already this year and complete it by the end of 2022. This view is held by the hawkish lobby in the leadership of the US Central Bank. FOMC member Michelle Bowman has even specifically stressed that disappointing employment statistics for August would not get the Fed out of the way.

This balance of strength plays on the dollar side and should send the EUR/USD pair south. At the moment, 50% of experts agree with this, supported by graphical analysis. The pair finished last week at 1.1810, and now it is expected to be supported at levels 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. 15% of analysts expect the pair to consolidate in the 1.1800 zone, while the remaining 35% are looking north. Resistance levels are 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 50% point north, 10% south, and the remaining 40% are neutral. Among trend indicators, 35% are colored green, 65% are colored red.

The US economic calendar next week looks quite busy, and all the important statistics will be focused on the country's consumer market. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Tuesday, September 14, retail sales on Thursday, September 16, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released the following day.

GBP/USD: Movement with Almost Zero Result

UserPostedImage


Having drawn a parabola with a low of 1.3725, the GBP/USD pair returned on Friday September 10 to almost the same place it started on Monday (1.3865) and ended the five-day run at 1.3830. It never managed to break beyond the central part of channel 1.3700-1.4000, where it has been intermittently since February 2021.

If it continues to move north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at 1.3909, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (30% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 10% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

As for the oscillators on D1, 70% are colored green, 15% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, like a week ago, the greens win 9-1.

Events in the coming week include the release of unemployment data in the UK on Tuesday, September 14, and statistics on the country's consumer market on Wednesday, September 15.

USD/JPY: Another Zero Result Pair

Being a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time again, having started the five-day week at 109.70, it ended the week almost at the same place where it began, at the level of 109.85. Moreover, the trading range has become even narrower, keeping within 85 points: from 109.60 to 110.45. Those who are actively trading are hardly happy with such volatility. Although, on the other hand, it allows you to quite accurately place Stop Loss and Take Profit orders and taking into account the minimum spreads and leverage up to 1: 1000, you can make significant profits with the NordFX broker even in such a narrow corridor.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears, 15% - with the bulls, and 35% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, the red ones have 60% advantage among oscillators, the green ones have 10%, and those that have taken a neutral, grey position - 30%. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

Support levels are 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.00, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: September 07: Rainy Day

The past week on the crypto market can be reduced to one day, Tuesday September 07. A law came into force in El Salvador on that day recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of settlement on par with the dollar. The country's young president, Nayib Bukele, twitted about this three minutes before midnight local time. “In three minutes we will go down in history,” he wrote. Earlier, the head of state confirmed that the government of El Salvador acquired the first 200 BTC. Bitcoin has been rallying since July 20 and has jumped above $52,000 since this announcement.

Roughly 20% of the country's GDP comes from remittances that Salvadorans working abroad send to their relatives. The huge commissions in USD that have to be paid are extremely unprofitable and enrich the US financial structures. This is what has been one of the main reasons for bitcoin adoption. However, for most Salvadorans, a third of whom do not even use the internet, digital assets still remain a mystery behind seven seals. According to surveys, about 70% of the population fear the innovations, and pensioners believe that the government wants to take away their USD pensions in this way. The result of these concerns and misunderstandings were protests and demonstrations that swept across the country.

The World Bank refused to support the initiative of Nayib Bukele, which jeopardizes the receipt of tranches from the IMF. According to analysts, El Salvador does not have specific laws to address the many nuances of bitcoin use, increasing the risks associated with money laundering and terrorist financing . And leading rating agencies such as Fitch believe El Salvador's insurance industry will be particularly hit. Bonds rated B- are already circulating in it, and now the situation will be aggravated by the presence of an unstable cryptocurrency.

September 7 clearly showed how unstable it is. In a matter of hours, bitcoin prices fell 18%, from $52,870 to $43,205, dragging down the entire crypto market.

Then the leading cryptocurrency managed to win back some of the losses, and it is trading in the range of $45,000-46,000 per coin at the time of writing the review, on Friday September 10.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted into the fear zone, dropping from 74 to 46 points. The total crypto market capitalization fell below the important psychological level of $2 trillion to $1.975 trillion by September 08, but then rose to $2.100 trillion by the end of the working week.

Despite what has happened, many experts are still positive about the prospects for both bitcoin and ethereum. For example, senior strategist Mike McGlone called the $100,000 mark for bitcoin and the $5,000 mark for ethereum as "the path of least resistance" in the September Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report. “Crypto assets enter a renewed second-half year bull market after a serious drop from previous highs,” the Bloomberg expert noted, adding that he sees “bitcoin's future as a digital reserve asset to complement the dollar.”

The management of the billionaire Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust also speaks about the significant growth potential of the BTC/USD pair, calling bitcoin a digital analogue of gold. “Gold capitalization is $11 trillion, bitcoin is only $900 billion, which is a significant lag. We are in the early days of bitcoin adoption and the asset will be very volatile, but we believe the risk to reward ratio is attractive," the Miller Opportunity Trust said in a statement filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood also believes that the cryptocurrency market is far from the end of the rally. There are no signs of a price bubble in the markets, she said. “We think bitcoin is much more than a store of value or digital gold. This is a new global monetary system that is completely decentralized and not subject to politicians' whims". That being said, Cathy Wood thinks the next five to fifteen years will be very provocative, causing the quotes to draw S-shaped curves. And therefore, for the sector to mature, regulation is needed that will affect bitcoin in the most positive way.

Analysts at the international banking group Standard Chartered have also given a positive assessment of the outlook for bitcoin and ethereum. They compared the first with currency, and the second with the financial market, where lending, insurance and exchange transactions take place. Therefore, given the wider range of ETH use cases, its capitalization may eventually reach that of the first cryptocurrency.

Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin prices in the $50,000-$175,000 range and ethereum in the $26,000-$35,000 range. Thus, these cryptocurrencies should grow threefold and tenfold, respectively. “While the return on ETH may outperform BTC in the future, the risks associated with it are also higher,” the bank representatives said.

On average, 20% of analysts agree that the BTC/USD pair will cross over $50,000 in the coming week, their number increases to 40% onthe monthly forecast, and 80% agree that it will happen before the New Year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews of the Week

UserPostedImage


- Analytics software provider MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 5,050 BTC at $48,099 for approximately $243 million. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.
MicroStrategy was the first public company to invest a portion of its equity capital ($ 250 million) in bitcoin in August 2020. Later, the company's board of directors approved a policy to increase investment in digital gold at the expense of cash reserves. Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

- US citizen of Canadian origin Galeb Alaumari was found guilty of helping North Korean military intelligence officers launder funds obtained as a result of hacking of cryptocurrency exchanges and hacker attacks on various companies and financial institutions. The WannaCry ransomware stole more than $1.3 billion in total. This includes the cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment, the attempted hacking of banks in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Mexico, Malta, and the theft of various personal data.
Galeb Alaumari said he was responsible for cashing out funds through fake bank accounts and cryptocurrency. The defendant also confessed to sending out phishing emails. One of the victims of the scheme was a university in Canada, which transferred $9.4 million to fraudsters, believing it was communicating with a major construction company. The US Federal court sentenced Alaumari to 11 years in prison and a $30 million fine.

- Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.
The head of Ark Invest noted that if she had to choose one cryptocurrency, she wouldn't hesitate to prefer bitcoin “because states now consider it a means of payment.”
Wood also highlighted the potential of ethereum. “Ethereum is experiencing an explosion of developer activity thanks to NFT and DeFi. I am fascinated by what is happening in DeFi, which is dramatically reducing the cost of infrastructure for financial services. Although I know that the financial industry does not welcome this right now. We are nevertheless likely to continue with the 60% bitcoin and 40% ethereum strategy,” she added.
Earlier, analysts at Standard Chartered bank predicted bitcoin to rise to $175,000 and ethereum to $35,000.

- After El Salvador recognized bitcoin as legal tender, Panama decided to follow suit. A cryptocurrency bill has been submitted to the Panamanian Congress. Panama does not have either a central bank currently or its own official currency, and the US dollar is used as a means of payment.
If the law is passed, legal entities and individuals of Panama will be able to freely use BTC and ETH as a means of payment for any government or commercial transactions. In addition, it is proposed to transfer public records to the blockchain and digitize legislative and administrative acts. “Such a move will help create a lot of jobs, attract investment and make the government more transparent,” the bill's initiators said.
Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

- A recent survey by Sherlock Communications found that almost half of Brazilians agree that bitcoin should be accepted as the country's official currency, as El Salvador did. 48% of respondents voted for this (17% support without any doubt, 31% with some conditions). Only 21% rejected this idea (9% categorically, 12% moderately). The remaining respondents (31 percent) maintain a neutral stance.

- Artist Monica Rizzolli earned 1623 ETH (about $5.4 million at the time of the transaction) for the sale of the NFT series "Fragments of an Infinite Field" on the Art Blocks marketplace. The collection, consisting of 1,024 generative images, sold out on September 13 in less than an hour. The price for individual copies started from 10 ETH. Well-known NFT collectors Cozomo de' Medici and JDH spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy individual paintings.
The main parameter for creating the composition was the seasons, which set the colors and the phenomena depicted in the picture. Subsequently, some of the collection's items were resold on the OpenSea marketplace for 69 ETH (about $229,000).

- The State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine has established the involvement of three employees of the cyber department of the Security Service of this country (SBU) in the kidnapping of a cryptocurrency trader.
According to the investigation, SBU agents received information about the trader having a large amount in cryptocurrency in autumn 2020. They organized his abduction, took him to the forest and beat him for an hour and a half, demanding that $200,000 be handed over to them. After being refused, the agents moved the abductee to police headquarters. They continued to extort funds There, lowering the amount to $80,000. The trader was forced to agree, and called his wife, who transferred 7 BTC (at the time of the transaction, the equivalent of the ransom amount) to the cryptocurrency wallet specified by the extortionists.
All three face charges of robbery with violence, kidnapping and abuse of authority. The investigation also examines the involvement of eight other SBU officers in the crime.

- Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stöferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

- Crypto trading veteran Ton Weiss predicts that bitcoin (BTC) will complete the current correction relatively soon and then rise sharply to six-digit levels.
Weiss explained during the new strategy session that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.
According to Weiss, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After which it will bounce back sharply from that support and go up.
“The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 329
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 20 - 24, 2021



EUR/USD: Awaiting US Fed Decision

The dollar continues to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair moves south. Starting on Monday September 13 at 1.1810, it ends the five-day run at 1.1730. The movement is certainly not very strong, only 80 points. But it must be taken into account that it was 1.1908 two weeks ago, on September 03.

US retail sales statistics were much better than expected. Sales showed a 0.7% increase in August, although according to the forecast, should have decreased by 0.8%. The number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits, which was supposed to decrease by 72K, fell by 187K.

Such strong statistics raised the likelihood that the Fed will announce the curtailment of $ 120 billion of the quantitative easing (QE) program to 55% at its next meeting on September 21-22.

As a result of the dollar emission, carried out by the FRS for the last year and a half, the US national debt has grown to 130% of GDP, and the budget deficit exceeds a trillion dollars. As a result, it is not just about winding down the fiscal and credit stimulus, but also a shift to a tight fiscal policy. The Democratic Party and President Biden's Administration have introduced a draft tax reform to the U.S. Congress, which includes a sharp increase in federal income taxes. If passed, the tax rate in such states as New York or California could exceed 60%. In addition, a three per cent wealth tax is proposed for the first time in US history.

The stock market responded to all this news with active sales. The S&P500 index fell 4,550 to 4435, the Dow Jones dropped 35517 to 34510 in two weeks. The gold price also fell 4.5%.

As for Europe, it was gripped by the real panic associated with the record rise in gas prices, which at one point reached $970 per 1,000 cubic metres. (It was 2.8 times lower a year ago). In anticipation of the autumn-winter heating season, the necessary energy reserves are only 75% (according to other estimates, only 50%). Such energy shortages could not only drive up prices but also reduce production. And this is fraught with a new recession and will definitely not benefit the common European currency.

By far the most important event of the coming week will be the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21-22. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, first of all, investors are waiting for signals or even a concrete decision about the beginning of the QE curtailment. As we have written before, more members of the Fed's leadership are taking a hawkish stance and supporting a reduction in the asset purchase program as early as this year. And if the hawks win at this meeting, we can expect a sharp strengthening of the dollar, and a further fall in stock indices and gold prices.

At the moment, 60% of experts vote for the rise of the US currency and the decline of the EUR/USD pair, while 30%, on the contrary, believe that nothing will happen at the Federal Reserve meeting and the pair will win back north. The remaining 10% of analysts abstain from forecasts.

The indicator readings on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 75% are colored red and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among the trend indicators, 100% point to the south.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1665, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1770, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

In addition to the Fed meeting, events in the coming week include the release of German and Eurozone PMI statistics on Thursday September 23.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks vs Fed Hawks

The British pound, although down against the dollar, is generally holding up better than the common European currency. As expected by most analysts (60%), the GBP/USD pair went north on Monday and tested the 1.3900 high the next day, helped by good statistics from the UK labor market. This was followed by a reversal, a gradual decline and the pair's finish at 1.3730. As a result, it failed to update the two-week low of 1.3725, although it was very keen to do so.

The GBP/USD pair hardly reacted to the above forecast inflation data in Britain (CPI rose 3.2% in August vs. 2.0% in July vs. 2.9% forecast). However, such indicators reinforce the hawks' position at the Bank of England. So far, the forces of "hawks" and "doves" are equal there. According to Bank Governor Andrew Bailey, four members supported raising the key interest rate and four opposed at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Analysts believe that the likely rate hike in February 2022 will support the pound and further declines in the GBP/USD pair will be limited. If that expectation grows into confidence, the UK currency could move up strongly.

We will not only have an important meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week, but also a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, September 23, from which investors also want to receive signals on the timing of tightening monetary policy. And here, in contrast to the EUR/USD forecast, most experts side with the pound. 65% of analysts vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair, and 35% for its further decline. But the technical indicators' readings are 100% in line with the previous pair.

Resistances are at levels 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3700-1.3725, 1.3665 and 1.3600.

USD/JPY: Zero Again

UserPostedImage


The coming week can be safely called the week of the central banks. In addition to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, investors will learn the views of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan on the economic situation in their countries on Wednesday September 22, as well as decisions on interest rates of their national currencies. With a probability close to 100%, the yen rate will remain the same, at minus 0.1%. But BOJ leaders have a lot more to think about: they need to fill the economy's 22 trillion yen (approx. $200 billion) deficit.

However, the USD/JPY pair reacts to such figures and the news quite calmly. Unnecessary excitement is not needed in a quiet Japanese harbor.

The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.85, it finished the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.95. At the same time, the experts' forecast can be considered to have come true: most of them (50%) sided with the bears last week and 35% took a neutral stance. Everything went exactly according to this scenario: at first the pair went down sharply, and then, having reached a strong medium-term support at 109.10, it failed to break it, turned around and went back.

The pair was supported by positive US retail sales statistics. In addition, according to a number of experts, the outflow of Japanese capital into foreign bonds did not allow it to go far down. Japanese investors hardly bought any bonds from other countries in 2021. But the sharp rise in US Treasuries yields pushed them to buy more than 1.76 billion yen worth of securities this Thursday. That has become a record since last November.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears once again, 35% with the bulls, and 15% have taken a neutral stance. As for the indicators on D1, there is a complete diversity among the oscillators after such week results, while the green ones have a convincing advantage for the trend indicators.

Support levels are unchanged: 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems already unrealizable) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.15, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Black to Slightly Greenish

El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. And the quotes of the flagship cryptocurrency fell by 18% in a matter of hours: from $52,870 to $43,205. The market is slowly trying to recover after this "black" day. At the time of writing this review, the BTC/USD pair had risen to the $47,300-48,000 zone. Of course, it's not much, which is why the past week can only be described as “slightly greenish.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen by only 2 points, from 46 to 48, and is in the central neutral zone. The total crypto market capitalization remained virtually unchanged, at $2.120 trillion compared to $2.100 trillion a week ago.

The news background looks “slightly greenish” too. The most interesting news is that Panama has decided to follow El Salvador's example. A draft law on cryptocurrencies was presented to the Congress of this country. Panama currently uses the US dollar as a means of payment. If the law is passed, it will also be possible to use BTC and ETH. Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

The law has not yet been passed, but analysts are already wondering how the market will react to its entry into force. Should we wait for another "black" day of the calendar, as in the case of El Salvador?

One more piece of news. Analytics software provider MicroStrategy additionally purchased 5,050 BTC at $48,099. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.

Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

Influencers continue to predict a great future for major cryptocurrencies. So, Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stoferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.

The head of Ark Invest also highlighted the potential of Ethereum, saying that her company will likely continue to adhere to a 60% Bitcoin and 40% Ethereum strategy.

In terms of shorter-term forecasts, crypto trading veteran Ton Vays believes that the BTC/USD pair will complete the current correction relatively soon, and then rise sharply to six-digit levels. Vays explained that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.

According to Ton Vays, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After that, it will sharply bounce off this support and rush upward. “The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Users browsing this topic
    Forum Jump  
    • You cannot post new topics in this forum.
    • You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
    • You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
    • You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
    • You cannot create polls in this forum.
    • You cannot vote in polls in this forum.