Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

Date : 26th May 2023.

Market Update – May 26 – 2-year Debt Ceiling Deal Approaching?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex holds the breach of 104.00 on news the US debt ceiling talks are progressing and a 2-year deal is possible. Strong US data yesterday also added to pressure on the FED to hike at least one more time. Susan Collins from the Boston Fed, suggested that a pause in June “may be appropriate”. Stocks were mixed, NASDAQ (+1.71%) lifted by a record +24% advance for Nvidia. Yields also rallied, with short end of the curve at 10-week highs as the 2-yr yield holds over 4.5%. Overnight, the Yen remains weighed and the Nikkei 225 outperformed following inflation data and news that the BOJ is likely to maintain the YCC until “at least next year”.

Overnight – Japan – Tokyo CPI missed at 3.2% vs. 3.4% but remains much stronger than at any time in recent history, also PPI came in higher than expected at 1.6% vs 1.4%. AUD – Retail Sales added to the weak data this week missing at 0.0% vs. 0.4%, UK – Retail Sales beat (0.5% vs 0.3%) but last months data was revised lower to -1.2% from 0.9%.

*FX – USDIndex has rallied to 104.22, another new 2-month high. A stronger USD continues to weigh on EUR which tested down to the 1.0700 zone yesterday, trades at 1.0730 now. JPY breached 140.00 & still holds over 139.50 at 139.65 now. Cable slipped again to 1.2310 lows yesterday, recovering a little to the 1.2350 handle.
*Stocks – Wall Street traded mixed all day and closed that way. (-0.11% to +1.71%). NVDA +24.37%, MRVL +7.6%, DLTR -12.00%. US500 (+0.88%) closed 36.34 pts at 4151, FUTS are trading at 4159, and a third day below the key resistance at 4175.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $71.00 zone from $74.25 following mixed news regarding Saudi output cut threats. Gold – moved lower again, to $1937, tbut has since recovered to the key $1950 handle.
*Cryptocurrencies–BTC pushed to test under $26k yesterday and remain capped at $26.5k today as USD strength persists.

Today – Core PCE Price Index, Core Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income & Spending, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.




Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.24%) Following a strong rally to 140.22 giving back some gains today. MA’s aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but slipping, RSI 48.17 & neural, H1 ATR 0.152, Daily ATR 1.096.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 29th May 2023.

Market Update – May 29


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex retreated to 103.97 on news that Biden struck a deal with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that would raise the US debt ceiling and prevent an unprecedented default in early June. It still must pass the House and Senate. US and UK are closed for a holiday today, while Chinese stocks in Hong Kong extend their slump, amid concerns on geopolitics and slow recovery in China.

Overnight – In an interview for WSJ, Kissinger (Former US Secretary of State) stressed that a ‘problem’ in the South China Sea could serve as a reason for the armed conflict between US and China.

*FX – USDIndex has pulled back to 103.94. EUR rebounded from 1.07 to 1.0739. JPY spiked to 140.92 before reverting to PP at 140.23. Cable up again to 1.2371 but still within range. Turkish lira falls after warnings from Washington regarding Erdogan’s win (as unorthodox policy, characterised by low interest rates, restrictive foreign currency regulations and high inflation will continue).
*Stocks – Wall street, Asia and European Stocks up for the day. JPN225 is at its highest level since July 1990. NASDAQ (+0.5%), Topix and ASX200 both rose about 1%, while Hang Seng and CSI300 are down by 0.3 and 0.6% respectively. NVDA +2.54% unveils more AI products post spectacular result on Thursday and the $184 billion rally. Currently the world’s most valuable chipmaker (worth $939.3 billion). DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.7% respectively.



*Commodities – USOil – extends gains after US officials agree on tentative debt deal, i.e. at 73.60. UKOIL climbed to 77.47.
*Gold – steady ahead of vote in congress for the debt ceiling at $1946.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC spiked to $28430.

Today – This week the US employment report will help determine whether the FOMC will hike or pause in June. China’s PMIs will give clues on the sputtering economy.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCAUD (+4.26%) rallied 43519. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line positive but steady, RSI 70 & neutral, H1 ATR 235.56, Daily ATR 988.59.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th May 2023.

Market Update – May 30 – Stocks Muted Ahead Of Vote.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Eurozone stock markets are slightly higher, US futures outperforming as officials promote their debt ceiling deal to secure sufficient support to pass the vote in Congress, while Asian markets closed narrowly mixed. Most Asian equities declined today ahead of the deal vote but also due to the concerns regarding China’s outlook and rising tensions with the US, after Beijing declined the Pentagon’s request for a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu at a security forum in Singapore in June. Russia launched a wave of air strikes on Kyiv today, while in Moscow videos shared on social media showed drones flying low over the Russian capital. Treasury yields declined across the curve on debt dated from 5 years to 30 years.

Meanwhile as investors had started to price in a US debt deal on Friday, confirmation of the agreement should have a limited impact.

*FX – USDIndex has moved up to 104.48 as confidence in the debt ceiling deal strengthens. EUR dips to 1.0677, JPY retests 140.92 for a 2nd day in a row and Cable is still within its range at 1.2325 lows.
*Stocks – Hang Seng dropped as much as 1% today , marking the fifth day of declines and taking its losses from the Jan. 27 peak to about 20%. JPN225 closed 0.3% higher, CAC 40 is up at 0.1%, the DAX is up at 0.2%, US500 and US100 rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Nvidia +2.54% and Tesla +4.72%.



*Commodities – USOil returned to 72.10 as the market’s risk-on sentiment cooled slightly and mixed messages from major producers clouded the supply outlook ahead of their meeting over the weekend.
*Gold – extended lower to $1933, leaving the doors open for a potential move to $1920 and $1900.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC held yesterday’s gains above $27530.

Today – Fedspeak will remain heavy before the upcoming blackout period. Barkin speaks on policy and the economy. We also have Eurozone economic confidence, US consumer confidence, home prices, the US House vote on the deal and the May reading of China’s manufacturing PMIs.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (-0.60%) pullback to 3.6210. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line are close to 0, RSI 42.67 & falling, H1 ATR 0.0129, Daily ATR 0.0899.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st May 2023.

Market Update – May 31 – Last Day of May.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Treasuries rallied with rising hopes that the debt deal will be signed off by Congress. Wall Street finished mixed after opening in the green, extending Friday’s AI inspired pop on additional strength from Nvidia which saw its market cap briefly top $1 tln. China’s service sector expanded rapidly in May but factory activity contracted, implying an uneven recovery and boosting concerns for a slow recovery.

German import prices were down -7.0% y/y. PPI numbers also came in weaker than anticipated and the data adds to signs that inflation pressures are dropping fast. So far the central scenario remains that the ECB will be hiking rates again in June and July, but if confidence data doesn’t improve and credit growth deteriorates further, the July hike could still be cancelled.

FT:” A group of Republicans led by Pennsylvania congressman Scott Perry said on Tuesday they would “do everything” in their power to block the deal, casting doubt on whether Congress would pass the debt ceiling deal agreed on Saturday by the default deadline.”

*FX – USDIndex has rebounded to 104.19 on Fed expectations, after dipped to 103.87. EUR dips to 1.0683, JPY pulled back to 139.30 and Cable fell 0.2% to 1.239.
*Stocks – Hang Seng dropped more than 2% post PMIs from China, the US500 and US100 both fell 0.3%. #Nvidia +2.99%, #Tesla +4.14% and #GoldmanSachs (-0.36%) plans another round of job cuts amid dealmaking slowdown.



*Commodities – USOil has dropped and reversed gains. Currently at $69. China’s recovery continues to look lackluster and Russian oil continues to reach world markets, which coupled with growth concerns has been keeping a lid on prices. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister has kept the option of another output cut on the table ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on June 4, although Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that he anticipated no new measures from the group.
*Gold – has moved higher to $1964, as Treasuries rallied.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC drifted to 26946 which is also S3. Barrons: Bitcoin miners appear to have dodged a bullet, as Congress’ draft debt-ceiling bill doesn’t include the heavy crypto tax that the White House had proposed.

Today – HCPI & CPI from Germany, Canadian GDP and lots of Fedspeeches from Bowman, Harker and Jefferson.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.51%) drifted to 1.06716. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line turned negative, RSI 29 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00106, Daily ATR 0.00595.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 1st June 2023.

Market Update – June 1st -Stocks higher after bill vote.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Yesterday’s dovish Fedspeak, a mixed Beige Book, a weak Chicago PMI, and easing concerns over a default supported yields. Month-end demand and a little risk aversion underpinned too. The market also continued to correct from some of the heavy losses since May 11 resulting from hotter data that opened the door for a June rate hike. Implied Fed funds futures dive and Treasury yields have followed suit after Fed Governor Jefferson touted skipping a June hike in order to see more data. The June implied rate has fallen to 5.198% and July has downshifted to 5.288%.

Today, Stocks edged higher after the House voted 314-117 on Wednesday in favour of a bill to raise the US debt ceiling. The bill will pass through the Senate next. German retail sales rose 0.8% m/m in April & UK house prices fell 0.1% in May as rate concerns persist.

*FX – USDIndex climbed to 104.699 with support from JOLTS, but closed lower at 104.23 following dovish Fedspeak and the Beige Book. EUR dipped to 1.0683, JPY pulled back to 139.30 and Cable fell 0.2% to 1.239.
*Stocks – US100 was down -0.63% and the US500 off -0.61%, unwinding some of the enthusiasm from Nvidia. The US30 slid -0.41%.



*Commodities – USOil remained under pressure below $69 after weaker than expected official PMI reports for China added to growth concerns and weighed on the demand outlook. Comments from Russian officials damped speculation that OPEC+ could announce deeper output cuts at the June 4 meeting.
*Gold – moved sideways between $1960-$1968. It closed the month lower after strong data releases bolstered speculation of another Fed hike in June.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC closed the week’s gap down to $26,580.

Today – UK Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Inflation and Core, US ADP change and ISM Manufacturing Index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Cotton (+2.58%) spiked to 85.42. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line turned positive but still close to 0, RSI 69 & rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd June 2023.

Market Update – June 2nd – Stocks higher as US debt deal is signed off!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

June kicked off with rallies in Treasuries and on Wall Street thanks diminished fears of a Fed rate hike and a debt default. USDIndex slumped. Stock markets across Asia moved higher while, the decline in yields helped support equities, especially big tech which had stumbled.

The US Senate has approved a fiscal deal between the White House and congressional Republicans, ending a weeks-long political stand-off that risked triggering an unprecedented debt default in the world’s largest economy.

Markets are looking for a pause from the Fed in June as debt drama is out of the way, the price data has weakened and there is a continued weakness in manufacturing. The repricing of Fed outlooks saw the probability of another 25 bp tightening on the 14th trimmed to 25% from 70% at the start of the week.

*FX – USDIndex closed at 103.58 from a peak of 104.50. EUR dipped to 1.0778, JPY extended losses to 138.60 and Cable spiked to above 1.2500 at 1.2543.
*Stocks – Hang Seng rose nearly 4%. The Nikkei closed 1.2% higher, the US100 is up by more than 1.29%, while the US500 was up 0.99% and the US30 0.47% higher. Nvidia another 5% up, Salesforce 4.69% down.



*Commodities – USOil have stabilised and backed up from recent lows amid an aversion of a default on the US’s liabilities. Currently it is at 70.92 from 66.85 yesterday.
*Gold – rallied to $1983.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC recovered yesterday’s losses and is currently retesting a move above $27k.

Today – NFP day, with nonfarm payrolls projected rising 180k in May, though recent reports on jobless claims, ADP, and some of the PMIs suggest upside risks.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.75%) spiked to 91.80. MAs currently flat, MACD histogram & signal line positive and rising, RSI 72 & flat.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th June 2023.

Market Update – June 6 – RBA Surprises, Binance Charged, Crypto & USD Weaker.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex sinks below 104.00 following weaker ISM Services PMI’s Stocks were mixed, Asia traded mixed following the subdued US handover and weak data, the RBA delivered a second consecutive surprise rate hike taking rates to 4.1% – the highest level since April 2012 AND the bank also left the door open to additional hikes, as inflation remains sticky & more tightening may be necessary. AUD rallied lifting NZD too. The US SEC is to sue Binance and founder Zhao over ‘web of deception’, Crypto’s sink. Oil markets continue to decline from the initial OPEC+ announcement rally yesterday.

Overnight – Weak Japanese personal spending data, weak UK retail sales data & German manufacturing orders dropped -0.4% m/m. Expectations had been for a sizeable bounce after the -10.9% m/m contraction in March, but instead orders declined for another month.

*FX – USDIndex has fallen to 103.75, in a wide arc around 104.00. EUR holds 1.0700 and remains capped by 1.0750. JPY cannot hold the 140.00 handle & is below 139.50, Cable rallies from 1.2400 to the next resistance at the 1.2450 handle.
*Stocks – Wall Street traded mixed all day closing lower (-0.09% to -0.59%). NINTC 2-4.63%, DELL -3.79%. US500 (-0.20%) closed -8.58 pts at 4273, FUTS are trading at 4276, and an eighth day above the key resistance at 4175 and a fourth day north of 4200.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $71.25 zone from $74.25 following the OPEC+ production cut announcement on Sunday. Gold – moved lower again, to $1937, yesterday but has since recovered beyond the key $1950 handle, to $1963 highs today.
*Cryptocurrencies–BTC plunged to $25.3k lows following Binance news.

Today – EZ Retail Sales, Canadian IVEY PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.81%) Following the RBA surprise announcement & outlook rallied over 0.6680. MA’s aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 70.78 & OB, H1 ATR 0.00144, Daily ATR 0.00633.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th June 2023.

Market Update – June 9 – USD & Yields slip, Treasuries & Stocks Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The USDIndex dived from the 104.00 holding pattern to 103.33 as weekly unemployment claims rose much more than expected by 28k to a 2-year high of 261k from 233k reversing the tightening in claims since April. Stocks closed with a positive bias as the S&P500 joined the NASDAQ in technical BULL market and the Eurozone enters a technical recession. Asian markets have followed through too, closing in positive territory, with European & UK Futures firmer too. FED now appear set for no hike next week, (like the BOJ) but very unlike the ECB. Ueda will “patiently maintain current monetary easing”. Binance in the US to stop USD deposits, Goldman Sachs “a US recession has become less likely.”

*FX – The USDIndex down to 103.33 the lowest since May 24. EUR holds above 1.0750, today at 1.0780. JPY briefly tested 138.70 lows from June 2. back to 139.40 now. Cable holds over the mighty 1.2500 at 1.2560.
*Stocks – Wall Street traded positively with tech bouncing back the NASDAQ gained over 1.00%, the DOW edged out a 0.50% gain. US500 (0.60%) closed 26.33pts at 4293, FUTS popped 4300, but are trading at 4290.



*Commodities – USOil – Futures tanked under $70.00 again, to $69.00 before bouncing back to $71.00. Gold – rallied to $1970 from below the key $1950 handle, and trades at $1965 now.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC reversed from the $27k level to 26.5k again in the wake of the Binance and Coinbase rejections of the SEC accusations.

Today – Canadian Jobs Data & Speech from ECB’s de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.57%) Rallied from 138.75 lows today to break 139.50, next resistance at 139.60. MA’s aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 61.20 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121, Daily ATR 1.177.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th June 2023.

Market Update – June 9 – USD & Yields slip, Treasuries & Stocks Rally.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher, European and US futures are also finding buyers as markets wait for this week’s round of central bank announcements. US inflation data and of course the FOMC announcement will be key focal points. Markets are positioned for another rate hike from the Fed, although are betting more on July, rather than June. The USDIndex is at 103.6, as the 10-year Treasury yield lifted 1.7 bp to 3.76%. Oil plummeted again after Goldman Sachs cut its outlook for crude price. UBS completes Credit Suisse takeover (integration process could take up to four years, while the report includes a lot of uncertainties about employees).

*FX – USDIndex down to 103.47. EUR holds at 1.0750, below 20-DMA for a 2nd day. JPY consolidating between 139.26-139.64. Cable holds at last 1-month high at 1.2580.
*Stocks – JPN225 and ASX closed with gains of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, the CSI 300 also inched higher, and the Hang Seng, while still in the red, has pared earlier losses. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.5%. Glencore has offered to buy Canadian mining company Teck Resources. Novartis agrees to buy Chinook for up to $3.5B.



*Commodities – USOil – GS slashes Brent forecast in waning demand. USOIL tanked under $70.00 again, to $69.24, while UKOIL is currently at $73.66 (weak Chinese data, including deepening factory gate deflation and flagging exports).
*Gold – steady at $1960.
*Cryptocurrencies – BTC holds above $25.4k level. Regulatory challenges and liquidity issues keep the crypto market resilient.

Today – Australia closed (King’s Birthday Holiday). US Monthly Budget Statement will be released .



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ETHUSD (-5.07%) gapped down on Asia open from 1,833 to 1,717.39. MAs flattened, but MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0 and RSI 21.12 & flat, H1 ATR 15.50, Daily ATR 71.14.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th June 2023.

Market Update – June 13 – Stocks Higher, Pound Up, All Eyes on CPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian stock markets moved higher as the PBOC cut the 10-day reverse repo rate, which fueled speculation of a cut to its medium term lending facility on Thursday. A weak recovery and low inflation have increased pressure to do more to support the economy and a rate cut from the PBOC would support any official stimulus package that may be in the making. This coupled with market speculation of a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle and a continuation of the BOJ’s expansionary policy helped to bolster sentiment overnight. US and European futures rose along with Asian equities.
German HICP confirmed at 6.3% y/y – showed a sharp decline in headline rates. There are some signs that underlying inflation pressures are easing, although rates clearly remain far too high for the ECB’s liking. UK unemployment declined, wage growth accelerated and employment growth posted 250K more jobs over the three months to April. A much stronger than expected labour market report that will only harden market expectations for a series of rate hikes from the BOE this year.

*FX – The USDIndex has dropped to 103.25. EUR is a breath below 1.08. JPY is steady while Sterling strengthened and Cable lifted further above the 1.2560 mark.



*Stocks – The JPN225 is up 1.8%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 have lifted 0.3% and 0.1%. US500 breaks 1-year resistance and extends to 4357.44, US100 climbed another 1.53% on the back of a record 12th consecutive gain in #Tesla. AI enthusiasm also supported. #Oracle +6% as cloud sales gained 54% in the fiscal fourth quarter to $4.4 billion, signalling the software maker’s cloud business is benefiting from heightened demand for artificial intelligence (AI) workload. #Carnival +12.45% after JPMorgan and Bank of America upgraded shares of the cruise operator. #Apple Inc. shares ended at their first all-time high in more than a year. #Nio (+8.67%) cuts prices on all electric vehicles by $4,200 in China.
*Commodities – USOil – below 68 but slightly higher from 66.80 low. Gold – trades at $1962 now.

Today – EU ZEW and US Inflation. BOE Gov Bailey Speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.50%) Rallied to 154.40. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line close to 0, RSI 65 but flat, H1 ATR 0.173, Daily ATR 1.112.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th June 2023.

Market Update – June 14 – The Big Decision!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Cold feet and cautionary profit taking weighed on Treasuries heading into the FOMC decision Wednesday.
There were no surprises in the May CPI report and that supported market expectations that the Fed will remain on a “hawkish hold,” including likely boosts in the dots to leave the door open for a July hike. Current rate probabilities for 14 June presents an 89.6% chance for a pause today. Wall Street managed further gains, in large part on further momentum from big tech and AI, while in Asia sentiment held up overnight and the Nikkei closed 1.5% higher as Toyota shares rallied following the reappointment of its chairman and as markets expect the BoJ to confirm a continuation of the ultra-accommodative policy settings. European and US stocks are down today.
May ranked as the largest month of buying of US equities since 2010. US L/S net leverage rose to 12-month highs as a result of the buying. Mega-Cap TMT drove the bulk of the buying in North America pushing net exposure to these names to decade highs. Traditional defensive continued to be bought with May being the 4th largest month of buying since 2018.



*FX – The USDIndex has remained within yesterday’s range and is at 103.36. EUR is at 1.0785. JPY holds above 140 while Cable broke 1.26 and holds above it as yesterday UK data boosted expectations of further BoE hikes and Sterling rallied as Gilt yields spiked.
*Stocks – The JPN225 is up 1.5%, US500 has had its fourth consecutive increase close to 4,400, while US100 gained 0.8%.
*Commodities – USOil – higher at $70. Gold – slightly higher at $1950.50 now.



Today – All eyes are on the FOMC decision as markets look ahead to the ECB announcement on Thursday, where Lagarde is expected to deliver another 25 bp hike.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.50%) Pulled back and steadied at 139.88. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line decline but remain well above 0.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th June 2023.

Market Update – June 15 – From Dovish Hikes to a Hawkish Pause.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The Fed on Wednesday kept the official interest rate unchanged in the target range of 5%-5.25%. But it was its projections, the so-called dot-plot, that moved markets, sending them lower as the central bank projected a median rate of 5.6% for this year, meaning two more increases. Powell stated that a decision for July has not been made yet, but markets are now anticipating a hike in July and another one in September. No more cuts are expected this year. The median target level projections for the Federal Funds Rate in 2024 is now 4.6% but Powell affirmed that he is predicting ”a couple of years out for rate cuts”. The Central Bank also raised expectations for economic growth (1% vs 0.4% prev.) and core PCE (3.9% vs 3.6% prev.), lowered them for unemployment (4.1% vs 4.5% prev.) and headline PCE (3.2% vs 3.3% prev.).

Dot Plots


The point of this pause is to assess the real effects of the monetary policy conducted so far, which has “long and variable lags” but the ”risks to inflation are still to the upside”. During the conference Powell stressed the importance of the Labour Market, affirmed that it would be nice to see a ”gradual slowdown in wage growth”, acknowledged ”there will be losses in commercial real estate” and specified the Fed is ”carefully monitoring the banking system” (Bank Stress Tests next week!).

OVERNIGHT – New Zealand fell into recession (-0.1% q/q after -0.7% last quarter), Australian Unemployment fell unexpectedly to 3.6%, Machinery Orders in Japan improved (5.5% m/m) and China cut its 1y Medium Term Lending Facility by 10 bps to 2.65%. Retail sales there cooled down, up 12.7% in May.

FX – The USDIndex fell before the decision, below 103 (102.64 low), and recovered after (103.23 right now). EUR spiked above 1.08 (1.0821 now), AUD gained almost 0.9% to 0.6834 before giving up all of its gains after the decision. Now trading back to 0.6827. JPY is trading above 141 on the eve of the BOJ decision.
Stocks – US30 -0.68%, US500 flat, US100 +0.70%. Dax hit a new ATH @ 16336. China and HK up on the rate cut, Nikkei slightly negative (-0.29% now).
Commodities – USOil – flat at $68.57 despite IEA yesterday. Gold – down, broke $1940, $1937 now. Silver weighs, –1.68% at $23.52.



Today – ECB expected to hike 25 bps, US Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed and NY Empire State manufacturing, US Retail sales, BOJ Tonight.

AUDJPY, H1



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+1.18%) Going up in a straight line on weak Yen and surprising Australia unemployment. 96.34 now, RSI 77.7, MACD positive.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th June 2023.

Market Update – June 16 – Stocks euphoria spreads as the USD takes a hit.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia-Pacific markets are higher today, following another brilliant performance for the US market yesterday as the Bank of Japan again left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at -0.1% and stated that inflation is slowing and it is closely monitoring the FX market. Additionally, in Japan the opposition filed a vote of no confidence for the cabinet a few hours ago. Meanwhile, further stimulus, both monetary and measures to support the housing market, is expected from the PBOC.

Yesterday’s US data was generally mixed but good retail sales stand out (+0.3% vs. +0.1% exp) ahead of today’s Michigan Consumer Confidence data. This helped the US indices have another great session: US500 is now +3% for the week, up 6 days in a row for its longest winning streak since Nov21; US100 is up +4% this week only, 8 weeks in a row (longest since Mar19). The weakness of the USD was another reason for the good US performance yesterday and it has increased after the ECB press conference where Lagarde maintained a very hawkish posture after raising rates by 25 bps. Day today, Quadruple Witching.



*FX – The USDIndex has dropped –1.24% to 101.76, now trading at 101.70. EUR has breached above 1.09, now 1.0954, Cable above 1.28, AUD touched 0.6899, JPY weak and approaching 141 again (104.83 now).
*Stocks – China, HK, Australia benchmarks all rose, Nikkei recovered from previous losses, now trading at 33687. US500 +1.22% at 4425, US100 +1.20%, US30 +1.26%. Microsoft hits a new ATH (+3.19% at 348,10), Oracle, Alibaba > +3%, Adobe jumps +3% in afterhours after beating results, Virgin Galactic +40% in afterhours.
*Commodities – USOil – +3.64% at $70.68, Gold – recovered from a low at $1924, now trading at $1960.



Today – Quadruple Witching Day, EU HICP, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ZARJPY (+0.74%) on a strong uptrend since 2nd Jun, trading at 7.74 now. RSI sloped upward (66.3), MACD positive and histogram just crossed the line on the H1 timeframe.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th June 2023.

Market Update – June 19 – US Holidays, Blinken in China, Waiting for the PBoC.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia-Pacific markets largely fell on Monday in a week when the PBoC is broadly expected to cut its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates tomorrow while uncertainty is surrounding China’s economy and the scope of any potential stimulus. In an attempt to improve tense relations between the US and the Asian giant, Blinken is on a high-stakes diplomatic trip to Beijing, making him the highest level American official to visit Beijing since Biden became president, after a number of prominent figures from the corporate world ranging from Elon Musk to Jamie Dimon. Last week ended with a red day for US indices that anyway reached several major milestones: best week since March for the US500 and US100, up 2.6% and 3.3% on the week, 5 and 8 weeks in a row respectively. US30 posted its 3rd consecutive week of gains. Today US cash markets are closed for the Juneteenth Holiday.

*FX –The USDIndex is flat at 101.89 (+0.06%) and the greenback is quite volatile against the APAC currencies (AUD -0.17% at 0.6865, low at 0.6834; NZD –0.15% at 0.62238, low at 0.6205); USDCNH is back on the rise at 7.15 (+0.3%). EUR, Cable are flattish.
*Stocks – China –1.42%, HK -1.53%, Nikkei -0.93% (still hovering close to 33-year high). EU Futures in red (DAX -0.35%, FTSE -0.10%) as are the US ones (the 3 major benchmarks are all -0.15%). Last week added another rise to an impressive streak, NVDA added 10%, MSFT 4.7% and hit a record Thursday. On Friday though, several big tech names fell >1% (GOOGL, AMZN, AAPL).
*Commodities – USOil – -0.76% at $70.91. the spread against UKOil is at $4.80 up from $3.62 on 24th May, Gold – rejected $1968 last Friday, now trading at $1955. Metals are in the red.



Today – US Juneteenth holidays, CAD Industrial Product Price.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.44%) on a strong uptrend since 1st Jun, trading at 97.12 now. RSI sloped downward and overbought (76.9), MACD positive on the Daily timeframe. ATR (10) ticking slightly higher than 95.6 pips on average per day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 22nd June 2023.

Market Update – June 22 – ”Super Thursday”.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The Asian stock market was negative with JPN225 down -0.9%, although with the BoJ sticking to its accommodative policy stance and corporate reforms helping to lift sentiment, Japanese markets have outperformed over the past year. China and Hong Kong are on holiday today (Dragon Boat Festival). Markets continue to adjust Fed tightening expectations after Powell repeated yesterday that the fight against inflation is not over yet. US futures are in the red, as markets wait for rate announcements from the BoE. The SNB meanwhile today increased rates by 25 bps.

Higher than expected inflation numbers have left markets pricing in some risk of a 50 bp move from the BoE today. Stagflation risks are back on the agenda and Sterling didn’t benefit from the prospect of aggressive tightening moves.



*FX – The USDIndex corrected yesterday, but today has stabilised, and is at 101.60. EUR meanwhile held above 1.0980 after ECB’s Villeroy tried to tame speculation of a September hike. The EUR also strengthened against the Pound, despite the outperformance of Bunds versus Gilts. USDJPY remains high at 141.80 after BoJ’s Ueda said the BoJ will persistently continue with monetary easing.
*Stocks – GER40 and UK100 are underperforming and down -0.6% and -0.7% respectively. #Amazon down after Federal Trade Commission sues Amazon for enrolling consumers in Prime without consent and #Tesla stock sank 5.5% on Wednesday, its steepest loss in two months, The US100 sank 1.2%, US500 was down about 0.5%, while the US30 fell 0.2%.
*Commodities – USOil and Gold slightly lower but steady at $72.30 and $1929.20.

Today – SNB press conference, BOE rate decision and Press conference, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Bowman & ECB’s De Guindos and Panetta.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) UK100 (-1.02%) dipped on the EU open at 7463.67. Fast MAs aligned lower, RSI at 21 and falling and MACD & signal line are negatively configured ATR (H1) is at 13.26 and ATR (D) is at 65.09.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd June 2023.

Market Update – June 23 – Risk Aversion Extends.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

After 50 bp rate hikes from the BoE and Norges Bank, ongoing hawkish comments from Chair Powell who further warned of additional rate hikes, one maybe two more this year, exacerbated the selling.

Asian stock markets have remained under pressure and European as well as US futures are firmly in negative territory at the end of what is shaping up to be the worst week for stocks since March. The advent of supply with $120 bln in Treasury auctions announced, along with a 5-pronged offering from Nasdaq, extended the losses. Fighting inflation is taking precedence over growth concerns and for bank stocks in particular that could spell further pain, as markets worry about the risk of deteriorating loan portfolios. The 10-year Treasury yield has corrected -0.9 bp today, the German 10-year is down -2.2 bp and curves are inverting further. UK retail sales rose 0.3% m/m in May with the numbers suggest that demand is holding up despite ongoing inflation overshoots that are eating into real disposable income.



*FX – The USDIndex is on the rise and currently at 102.68. EUR broke below 1.0900 printing a low at 1.0852, while Pound retests again the 1.2690 lows. USDJPY reverted to 142.84 from 143.48 highs as risk aversion deepens.
*Stocks – China bourses were still on holiday, but the Hang Seng declined -1.8%, the Nikkei lost -1.5%, after a mixed close on Wall Street yesterday. The US100 sank 0.45%, US500 was down about 0.5%, while the US30 fell 0.37%.
*Commodities – Gold touched lows of $1910.05. The USOil meanwhile has dropped to $68.51 per barrel.

Today – PMI from Germany, Eurozone, UK and US will be monitored for growth signals.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL(-1%) resume decline today after -4% yesterday. Currently at $68.51, with fast MAs flattened for now, RSI at 28 and flat, Stochastic higher while MACD & signal line remain negatively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 26th June 2023.

Market Update – June 26 – Risk off!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets are consolidating after last week’s decline. Asia bourses still posted small losses, but European futures and US futures are slightly higher. Mainland China bourses sold off in catch up trade on their first trading day since last .The 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 3.721% and markets continue to fine tune central bank expectations. The ECB’s annual conference on central banking, which starts today may help as top central bankers are set to speak. Events in Russia are also on the radar at the start of the week. Oil prices rose on supply concerns and stock markets were mixed after Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin withdrew from positions in Russia.



*FX – The USDIndex has corrected to 102.32, EUR steady at 1.09, Pound sideways at 1.2720 and USDJPY corrcted below 143.87 at 143.48.
*Stocks –Defence stocks down. The US100 tumbled -1.01%, while the US500 was down -0.77%, with the US30 off -0.65%. It looks as though a lot of the AI rally has lost its umph. For the US100 and US500 it was the worst week since the SVB collapse with the US100 falling -2.1%, and the US500 dropping -1.75%, with the US30 off -1.98%.
*Commodities – USOil rose slightly on supply concerns and currently settled at 69.65, with a relatively muted reaction over weekend’s events in Russia. Gold slightly lower but steady at $1922.13.
*BTCUSD – Supported above $29,940 after breached $31,000. – SEC Approves First Ever Leveraged Bitcoin Futures ETF.

Today – ECB annual conference, Germany’s Ifo issues while Germany’s Federal Court of Justice decides compensation claims against Volkswagen, Audi and Mercedes-Benz in Karlsruhe over the diesel scandal.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) COFFEE (-3.07%) dipped on the 163.60, by global economic gloom sparked by Friday’s weak US and Eurozone purchasing managers reports. Fast MAs aligned lower, RSI at 26, MACD & signal line are negatively configured ATR (H1) is at 1.36 and ATR (D) is at 5.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 27th June 2023.

Market Update – June 27 – Stocks buoyed after yesterday’s drift.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite started to improve and a 2% bounce in the Hang Seng led Asian markets higher overnight. China Premier warned that economic barriers will lead to confrontation, while he promised the roll out of more effective measures to boost demand. China meanwhile set its daily reference rate for the managed currency at a higher level which for a second day helped the offshore yuan to advance. European and US futures are also finding buyers, after the US100 suffered again yesterday with markets preparing for a Fed hike in July. The 2-year finished fractionally lower at 4.680% after a well bid auction. It was as rich as 4.635% earlier. The 10-year was off 1.5 bps at 3.719%. The curve was at -102 bps.

Along with concerns over events in Russia, a plunge in German Ifo business confidence added to angst over the bearish impacts of central bank tightening, while more signs of a flagging Chinese economy added to risk-off flows.



*FX – The USDIndex to 102.14, EUR at 1.0935, Pound retests at 1.274. USDJPY at 143.45, which will keep intervention talk alive, especially after Japan extended the term of its top currency official for another year, which will be taken as a sign that officials remain determined to stem the weakness of the currency.
*Stocks – Nikkei underperformed but China bourses were buoyed. Wall Street settled in the red with the US100 and US500 at the day’s lows. The US100 tumbled -1.16% and the US500 was off -0.45%. The US30 was down -0.04%.
*Commodities – USOil higher due to Russian turmoil and currently at $70 per barrel.
Gold slightly higher as markets lower but steady at $1922.13. Iron and Copper jump as China stimulus optimism.

Today – The ECB’s conference on central banking in Sintra really gets underway today and comments from Lagarde will be watched carefully.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.68%) dipped to 1.6256. Fast MAs aligned rebounded in the last hour indicating the potential end of the decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 28th June 2023.

Market Update – June 28 – “Summer Sequel”.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

European stock markets are higher in early trade, after a largely stronger session in Asia. Overnight, Treasury yields climbed and Wall Street bounced, supported by strong data, i.e.

*US new home sales soared 12.2% to heady 763k pace in May
*US consumer confidence spiked to 109.7 in June; 1-year inflation 6.0%
*US durable goods orders jumped 1.7% in May, 0.6% ex-transportation

Japan extended the term of its top currency official for another year, which was taken as a sign that officials remain determined to stem the weakness of the currency, although for now markets are testing that resolve. Canada CPI slowed to 3.4% y/y in May, Median core rate at 3.9% y/y. Australia CPI cooled at 5.6% in May, a faster rate than expected, raising the prospect of a pause in interest rate rises from the Reserve Bank of Australia. ECB officials continue to flag that they have more ground to cover on rates, despite the deterioration in confidence indicators.



Today, German GfK consumer confidence deteriorated. The domestic political discussions may be partly to blame for the gloomy picture, but high inflation and the ongoing Ukraine war are likely also weighing on confidence and depressing the outlook. Latest revisions showed Germany in recession over the winter and GDP is expected to contract in 2023, especially as rising rates will also start to have an effect on activity.

*FX – The USDIndex recovered yesterday’s losses and returned to 102.29, but remains firmer versus JPY and Turkish lira. USDJPY has cleared the 144 mark, today slightly below it though. EUR at 1.0939, Pound down to 1.2719. AUD and NZD under pressure after soft inflation data dampened rate hike expectations.
*Stocks – Nikkei rallied 2%, the ASX was 1.1% higher at the close, while China bourses underperformed as markets still miss convincing stimulus measures. GER40 and UK100 are up 0.4% and 0.3% in early trade, but US futures are slightly lower today. #Walgreens tumbled more than 9% to an almost 13-year-low after cutting its full-year profit outlook and warning that consumers were paring spending as inflation remains elevated. #Regeneron slipped 8.7% after the Food and Drug Administration rejected the biotechnology firm’s application for approval of a high-dose version of its eye disease treatment Eylea. #United Airlines and #American Airlines rallied more than 5% after rival Delta gave a rosy outlook for the year on sustained travel demand. #Delta shares rose 6.8%. #NVDA -3.1%, #AMD -2.4% after hours as US ban on exporting AI chips to China imminent.
*Commodities – USOil dropped back again as Russia jitters eased, to $67.70.
*Gold down to $1909.

Today – The ECB’s conference on central banking in Sintra the highlight of the day.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.03%) dipped to 0.6095 (S3). Fast MAs aligned lower, MACD lines are negatively configured with RSI at 24.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 30th June 2023.

Market Update – June 30 – Eyes on PCE.


US ECONOMY

The surprisingly strong GDP revisions and the drop in jobless claims raised fears the FOMC will have to tighten rates further and boosted Treasury yields higher. The bear flattening trade boosted rates to the highest levels since March, the last time the markets fretted over aggressive Fed action. Fed funds futures priced in another hike in the coming months. Asian markets traded mixed, European and US futures are mostly higher as markets wait for the US PCE numbers after yesterday’s strong round of data that lifted Treasury yields.



*FX – The USDIndex popped to 103.437 on the more hawkish Fed outlook, but faded to 103.32. USDJPY breached 145. GBP and EUR remained under pressure.
*Stocks – The US30 and US500 are up 0.80% and 0.45%, respectively, supported by financials after the banks passed their stress tests. The US100 was unchanged.
*Commodities – USOil keeps retesting $70. US and European central banks remain hawkish and signal a higher-for-longer stance. China hasn’t delivered the hoped for aggressive stimulus program, but for Russia jitters have eased and a drop in US crude inventories helped to underpin prices today. EIA data showed that US crude inventories dropped by 9.6 million barrels last week – the largest drawdown in more than a month.
*Gold – broke below $1900 level yesterday but quickly returned higher to $1906.

Today – German Unemployment change, EU preliminary inflation & core reading, US PCE index and Michigan index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+19%) rallied to 322.93 high. Fast MAs flattened, MACD lines are still positively configured with RSI at 80.85 and Stochastic at 57 and falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 3rd July 2023.

Market Update – July 3 – A shortened week to start H2.



Core PCE data slightly below expectations plus a GDP reading that surprised at +2% (remember, however, that the comparison is against 2022 Q1 which was -1.6%) in the US were enough to give a final boost to US Indices – and of course their global peers – to close H1. The Nasdaq had its best H1 since 1983, up 38.71% ytd, +15.16% in Q2. $5 trillion has been added to the value of the listed companies, and Apple alone hit $3 trillion in valuation. The SP500 rose 6.47% in June, 8.30% in Q2, 15.91% ytd. The Dow Jones jumped 4.56% in June and is up only 3.80% on the year. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and the potential of generative AI have contributed to the market’s gain so far in 2023. Going back to last Friday, the Treasuries did not behave so brilliantly and were mostly sold off with the 2-year currently at 4.90% and with the curve against the 10-year at -107 bps. The USD also suffered against the major currencies, losing about 0.5%. The week started very well in Asia thanks to good PMI data from Caixin in China and Tankan in Japan.

This will be a shortened week for American trading: today Canada will observe Canada Day and the US will close early ahead of Independence Day tomorrow.



*FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.66 after having retreated 65 cents from the highs on Friday. EUR briefly regained 1.09 and GBP 1.27, now they are both slightly shy of these levels. AUD is weak in line with other majors (-0.20%) on the eve of the RBA IR decision tonight. Asian currencies are still weak, with CNH close to 8-month lows (7.263) and JPY still on the 144 handle.
*Stocks – US Futures are mainly flat (-0.01% US30/+0.16% US100); Asia is rallying this morning: China +1.93%, HK +1.91%, Nikkei +1.50%. Goldman Sachs is in talks to offload its APPLE credit card and high-yield savings account products to AMERICAN EXPRESS. Tesla reported 466.140 deliveries for Q2, +83% y/y
*Commodities – USOil still trading close to $70, Gold is stabilizing above $1.900, Silver consolidating in the $22.30-$23.00 range, Palladium still weak, AGRICULTURALS very volatile, with a very strong Cocoa +2.58% and quite weak Coffee and Sugar (that is rebounding +4.72% this morning after a -14% performance in the previous 2 weeks).

Today – Swiss CPI, EU/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Holidays: Canada Observes Canada Day, US Early Closure ahead of Independence Day.

SUGAR, Daily


Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (+4.72%%) is rebounding to $22.90 after dropping as low as $21.78. RSI is rising from near oversold levels, MACD is still negative. ATR 10 shows an average movement of 83 cents per day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 4th July 2023.

Market Update – July 4 – RBA on hold, US Independence Day.



After a shorter-than-usual US session yesterday due to today’s Independence Day holiday (US cash markets will be closed), which saw only the strong performance of TSLA (+6.9%) stand out after excellent manufacturing and delivery data, the Australian RBA kept rates on hold at 4.1% overnight in a Fed-style move (”more time will help us assess the real consequences of our actions”). The move was expected by 15/31 economists polled by Reuters, with 16 expecting a 25 bps hike. Australia’s top monetary authority believes inflation has ”passed its peak” but ”some further tightening may be required”. Inflation for the month of May showed a cooling to 5.6% according to the Bureau of Statistics. Among yesterday’s news, the further 500k bpd cut announced by Russia as well as the extension of the Saudis’ 1m bpd cut for another month allowed Crude Oil to soar before fading its gains almost entirely. Also, Nasdaq refiled its Blackrock Spot BTC ETF listing application with the US SEC and BTC took advantage of this to rise above 31k. 2y10y US curve inverted up to -110.6 bps.

OPEC+ cuts, updated JUN 2023


*FX – The USDIndex is up 0.07% to 102.73 after having been up just 5 cents yesterday. EUR again just shy of 1.09, GBP almost flat at 1.2687. AUD has been mildly offered after last night’s RBA decision (-0.24%).
*Stocks – US Futures are slightly in red this morning (-0.03% US500/-0.09% USA100); APAC is indecisive: Nikkei is retreating from 33-year highs (-1%), China -0.20%, AU200 caught some bid after the CB decision reversing previous losses (+0.38%). TSLA +6.9%.
*Commodities – USOil rose up to $71.77, is now back at $70.08; Gold keeps climbing after having hit the intermediate support area just shy of 1.9k, now trading at 1924.80.
*Cryptos: BTC back above 31k.

Today – Germany Trade Balance, US Redbook index, CAD Manufacturing PMI, API weekly Crude Oil Stock. US Independence Day.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NEOUSD (+2.35%) to $9.68, RSI at 59.60, MACD positive and trying to raise its head again after a possible recent double top.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.a

Date 6th July 2023.

Market Update – July 6 –FOMC archived, Jobs data ahead the next milestone.



Last night, the FOMC minutes showed the FED sees more rate hikes ahead but at a slower pace. Policymakers decided against a rate rise, citing the lagged impact of policy and other concerns as reasons to skip the June meeting after 10 straight rate increases which have totaled 5 percentage points, the most aggressive moves since the early 1980s. However, 12 out of 18 participants expected 2 or more hikes in 2023. Markets showed little reaction with all the moves being gradual and constant during the day but it’s worth noting that Yields are higher (2y US close to 5%, 10y shy of 4%). Also very interesting yesterday was the deterioration of the Services but especially Composite PMI data in China and Europe, showing that the effects of monetary transmission are slowly beginning to be felt in the real economy. On the same note, US factory orders came out lower than expected (+0.3% vs. +0.8% exp); at least this morning the German ones unexpectedly bounced back and this is a much needed short-term relief. Today’s labour data will be preamble to the NFP tomorrow. Treasury’s Yellen is kicking off her trip to China after EU’s Borrell rejection.

PMIs heatmap, Bloomberg


*FX – The USDIndex briefly regained 103 earlier this morning (102.93 now), GBP managed to stem losses yesterday (1.2713 now) while EUR (+0.24% yesterday, now trading at 1.0867) and AUD (settled at -0.57%, now 0.6674) were weaker. JPY is bid this morning and lost 144 (143.78).
*Stocks – US Futures are negative again (US500 -0.29%, USA100 -0.38%). Asia is heavy and Goldman’s downgrade of Chinese financial institutions is weighing: China -0.67%, HK -2.92%, Nikkei -1.70% on a stronger JPY. Foxconn sales dipped by 14% in Q2.
*Commodities – USOil has been supported by a consistent news flow from Saudi and OPEC yesterday, hit $72, now trading at $71.74. Gold was rejected by the ST trendline after touching $1935, trading at $1920 now.

Today – DE Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, US ADP, Jobless Claims, Jobs Openings, Trade Balance, ISM Services.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BCHUSD (+13.21%) keeps benefiting from its listing on EDX markets, now, RSI at 76.65, MACD positive, ATR 10 shows an average movement of 37.37 USD/day.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 14th July 2023.

Market Update – July 14.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Another soft inflation report in the way of PPI further fueled expectations the FOMC will be done hiking rates after the upcoming 25 bp increase on July 26. That view further fueled the rallies on bonds and stocks, while knocking the USD sharply lower. The bull curve steepened to -86 bps from -89 bps previously. Wall Street climbed on the Fed view, the drop in yields and on strong earnings news from Delta and PepsiCo. Bitcoin surged on Friday morning in Asia to breach the $31,000 resistance level, after Ripple Labs achieved a partial victory in its three-year lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

*FX – The USDIndex continued to tumble, falling below the 100 level to test 99.24, the weakest since spring 2022. It looks like bearish momentum will continue to pressure as the softening in inflation and the less hawkish Fed outlooks weigh.
*EURUSD has rallied further, climbing to 1.1242, and GBPUSD jumped to 1.3140. Yen has benefited only marginally with USDJPY dipping to 137.24.
*Stocks – The US100 surged 1.58% to hit 15,729 with the US500 up 0.85% to 4542, while the US30 edged up 0.14%. #Pepsico +2.38%, Amazon +2.68%, CRM +1.36% and Tesla +2.17%.



*Commodities – USOil spiked to 77.06. Speculation that the Fed is close to peak rates and fresh optimism that China will step up support measures have boosted confidence in the demand outlook. Meanwhile supply constraints are starting to bite amid signs that Russia is finally making good on its output cut announcement. Vessel tracking data showed shipments through Russia’s western ports falling substantially in the four weeks to July 9. The EIA meanwhile said the global market is expected to tighten in the second half of the year.
*Gold – holds steady above $1950.

Today – Michigan Sentiment Index and European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) XRPUSD (+75%) rallied to 0.9334.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 17th July 2023.

Market Update – July 17 – Digesting the strong American data.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Week 29 begins with futures slightly negative and APAC in red: China is heavy (-1.48%) after the disappointing GDP Y/Y figure (+6.3% vs +7.2% exp), falling retail sales growing only +3.1% (vs +18% 3 months ago) and the PBOC that left its midterm lending facility unchanged despite rising calls for further stimulus. Japan‘s markets are closed for holidays and trade in HK has been halted due to weather conditions and a typhoon force 8. The Sp500 and Nasdaq closed in red last Friday, however, finishing above previous yearly highs. Strong economic data, specifically Michigan Consumer Confidence but also falling import prices, caused renewed selling on the short end of the curve (2y +14.4 bps) and a new flattening (2Y10Y 96 bps). There was also selling on Oil, which continues to fall this morning with early headwinds from the resumption of production at Libya’s largest oil field.



JPMorgan Chase’s second-quarter net income surged 67% to $14.5 billion or $ 4.75% per share and the bank itself raised its expectations for the full year’s net interest income. Citi‘s earnings and revenue beat but its shares sank 4.05%. Likewise, Wells Fargo reported better than expected results and raised guidance, still slipped 0.34%. Today, Lockheed Martin and Charles Schwab will report.

*FX – The USDIndex is stable after last Friday’s slight increase, trading at 99.62. EUR still above 1.12 (1.1225), GBP shy of 1.31 (1.3086), JPY stopped its appreciation for the 3rd day in a row (138.58), CNH weakening again (7.178)
*Stocks – US Futures are flat to negative (-0.03% US500, -0.05% US100 and DJ300), China -1.44%. After last Friday’s earnings: JPMorgan +0.60%, CITI -4.05%, Wells Fargo -0.34%. Today, the military giant Lockheed Martin will report before the market open.
*Commodities – USOil down for the 2nd day in a row after the resumption of production at Libya’s largest oil field (-0.78%, $74.63). Corn, Wheat rebound after last couple of weeks declines (+1.18%, +2.22% respectively)
*Gold – stopped its rebound at $1964, trading now at $1954.8

Today – IT CPI, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (-1.07% @ $3.881) After Friday’s poor performance and the data in China, it is down from resistance zone and rejected by a probable trendline. RSI > 50, MACD still positive, MA200 at $3.85.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 19th July 2023.

Market Update – July 19 – Party like it’s the 90s!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A slew of misses among economic US data just passed unobserved yesterday. US retail sales -the all-mighty US consumer representing 2/3 of the economy- missed for the 6th time out of the last 8 releases, showing a +0.2% increase. After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales volumes fell 2.5% over the last year, the 8th consecutive YoY decline. That’s the longest down streak since 2009. Industrial production, capacity utilization both missed and decreased too but we all know manufacturing is the big ill of the economy and only a fool would have put his 5 cents on that losing horse. Instead, the company’s earnings are doing great: of the 38 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results, 82% have exceeded expectations, according to FactSet data. Leave it apart that the median expectation is for an average 7.3% decrease this quarter: set the bar low and just pass it.



That was enough for the DJ to notch its 7th straight positive session on Tuesday for its longest string of gains since MAR 2021, finally clearly exploding above its 2023 highs. And it’s that Consumer Cyclical (yes, despite of retail sales), Industrial, Financials have been the best performers during the last month. All 3 majors notched their highest closes since Apr 2022. The A.I. (maybe the LLM Machine Learning?) hype is everywhere and Microsoft has hit new all-time highs after revealing pricing for its new A.I. subscription and giving access to the META’s models on Azure. In the late 90s I was at the university, and I remember a Macroeconomics professor arguing about the ”end of economic cycles” because of the technological achievements (back then was the birth of the Internet). Economic cycles are still there and he still writes for the main Italian business and non-business newspapers.



*FX – The USDIndex has gained some traction and is trading at 99.75 right now. EUR is trading in the 1.12 lows (1.1230) and Cable has been hit hard after the CPI data (-0.68% @ 1.2946). JPY is offered (139.275) as Yuan is (7.21)
*Stocks – US Futures are slightly positive (+0.10% on average) and sitting at 15 months highs). Japan and Australia bid, more cautious about China (-0.42%). Some regional banks were among the ”worst” results yesterday, still there have been strong gains in the regional banking ETF.
*Commodities – USOil benefit of the risk on environment and rebounded off $74, trading at $75.51 right now. On the other hand, Copper is still weak (-0.32% @ $381.80)
*Gold – inched higher up to $1984.5 on no news and no real usual correlations, probably benefiting from the risk on bid and the overall declining CPI perspective (it was CAD’s turn to surprise yesterday)

Today – UK CPI, EU HICP (Final), US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speech from BoE’s Ramsden, Earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, ASML & IBM.



Biggest FX Mover @ (@06:30 GMT) XRP(+4.95% @ $0.8025) is targeting last Thursday close at $0.8125. RSI at 73.27, MACD strongly positive, MA200 40 cents lower ($0.43)

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 20th July 2023.

Market Update – July 20.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

So yesterday we had a few earning results from some big companies. Going in chronological order, before the open Goldman Sachs disappointed: profit fell 58% to $1.22 billion, missing estimates, revenue fell 8% to $10.9 billion. Despite that, its shares rose almost 1% as the bank was very active in creating low expectations and its woes in consumer banking were well publicized. On the other front, Tesla after the closing bell booked a record revenue of $24.93, Net income increased 20% and also profits exceeded WS’s expectations; however, shares sank –4.5% in after-hours as the management has announced some slowdown in production during the next quarter. Something similar happened with Netflix: revenue rose 3% to $8.19 billion, net income increased 3.47%, subscribers jumped 5.9 million last quarter but stock plunged -8.6% in after-hours trading. Looking beyond individual stocks, the US indices continue to climb and the US30 posted its longest positive streak since September 2019 (and regained 35,000 points). Overnight, unemployment in Australia surprised with a decrease to 3.5%, making the AUD today’s winner among majors. China kept its main rate unchanged to 3.55% and – while flat at this time- it has been a quite volatile session for the local market. Bad import / export data, sank JPN225.



*FX – The USDIndex is just shy of 100 (99.92) after another day of modest gains; GBP was hit hard yesterday, tried to recover by the end of the session but is down again today with the Cable at 1.2930 and EURGBP up 0.22% to 0.8671 (was trading at 0.85 approximately just 6 sessions ago); AUDUSD +0.85% at 0.6828, JPY regained 139 yesterday (139.39 now).
*Stocks – The US100 (-0.56%) is weighed down by the after-hours performance of Tesla and Netflix, while the US30 is positive after posting its longest winning streak since September 2019. This morning TSMC reported its first profit drop in 4 years and revenue slipped 10%.
*Commodities – USOil is still trading above $75 ($75.25 last), UKOil -0.15% at $79.40, Copper is catching some bid this morning (+0.46%).
*Gold – extended to $1978.59 and Silver is still sitting above $25 (+8.77% in the last 7 sessions)

Today – EARNINGS from J&J, American Airlines, Blackstone before the opening bell, US Jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) JPN225 (1.44%%) down to 32400 after poor trade balance data, RSI just below 50 at 48.45, MACD almost negative and downward inclined, the 50-day MA is just below the current price at 32175.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 21st July 2023.

Market Update – July 21 – US100 falls, US30 shines.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It has been a mixed session on Wall Street where US500 and US100 lost 0.7% and 2.3% respectively but US30 wrapped up a ninth day of wins, its longest winning streak since 2017 and its highest intraday level since April 2022. This can feel like rotation -for now- after the blistering tech driven rally but it is also somehow reflective of the mixed earnings and economic data that are coming out. Don’t take me wrong, 73% of the companies that have already reported beat, but the number is down from >80% earlier this week; job market looks strong while manufacturing data (and retail sales?) are not. Bonds sold off, USD has been consistently bid and Gold retreated: odds for a further rate hike after July somehow increased but Fed Funds futures are still pricing a terminal rate of 5.405% in November. Overnight, the Japanese headline CPI was slightly higher than expected (3.3% y/y) but that was not the case for the Core data: anyway, JPY is still offered. Retail sales in UK are out few minutes ago and that was a beat (+0.7% m/m, +0.2% exp.) that is helping demand for GBP.



OIL is still headed north, USOil regained $76, UKOil is trading above $80. You have probably heard about the rally in agriculturals and it’s good to keep an eye on the commodities prices input for future inflation developments. Anyway, Wheat price is still well below where it has been for the vast majority of time since the beginning of 2022.

*FX – The USDIndex is trading at 100.48 after yesterday’s gains (+0.61%); EURUSD at 1.1144 (+0.13%), GBPUSD at 1.2890 (+0.19%), USDJPY above 140.
*Stocks – US Futures are +0.1% on average this morning. Some of yesterday’s performances: J&J +6.07%, Abbot Laboratories +4.24%, Merck +2.37%, Well Fargo +1.88%, Berkshire +1.22%, Coca Cola +1.22%, McDonald +1.02%, Walmart +1.85%, Exxon +1.76%, Chevron + 1.11%, On the negative side: Tesla -9.74%, Netflix -8.41%, Nvdia -3.31%, Alphabet -2.65%, Meta -4.27%.
*Commodities – USOil is still trading at $76.35, UKOil $ 80.34.
*Gold – trading at $1971.25 after -0.28% yesterday, Silver +0.37% after falling > 1% yesterday.

Today – American Express reports, CA retail sales.



Biggest FX Mover (@06:30 GMT) Sugar (+2.62%), trading at $24.68 along its ascending channel, RSI at 69.28, MACD Positive, above its long term MAs, 50-day one just crossed the 200-day one to the upside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 24th July 2023.

Market Update – July 24 – It is all about central banks!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It is all about central bank decisions this week with three major banks on the calendar including the FOMC, ECB, and BoJ, with the markets positioning ahead of these releases. Trading was quiet heading into the weekend while Treasuries have gone through several gyrations in recent weeks amid on-again, off-again expectations regarding the future policy path. Dollar steadied at 100.73 as bearish US Dollar bets prevail. Today, stock markets traded mixed and Japan bourses rallied, as comments and reports suggest the bank sees little need to tweak policy or address the side effects of YCC.

Sunday: Spain was plunged into political uncertainty on Sunday night as both the right and left failed to secure a clear path to forming a government, even though the opposition People’s Party won the most seats in parliament.



OIL is still headed north, USOil regained $76, UKOil is trading above $80. You have probably heard about the rally in agriculturals and it’s good to keep an eye on the commodities prices input for future inflation developments. Anyway, Wheat price is still well below where it has been for the vast majority of time since the beginning of 2022.

*FX – The USDIndex firmer at 100.73. USDJPY at Friday’s highs at 141.55 as gains against JPY were pronounced after indications from BoJ Ueda that the Bank is not looking to tweak YCC any time soon. GBP hovering around 20-DMA, at 1.2870, while EUR holds above 1.11 for now.
*Stocks – The JPN225 closed up 1.23% at 32,700.7 amid the automakers rally including Mitsubishi (+5.55%). GER40 and UK100 are down -0.4% and US futures are narrowly mixed, with the US100 outperforming slightly. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was a bit of an outlier on the downside with a drop of 1.5%, dragged lower by Chinese property developers which tumbled more than 5%. #Nvidia -2.66%, #META -2.73%, Chevron +1.46% (strong oil earnings) & #Tesla -1.10%.
*Commodities – USOil remains supported as supply restrictions start to bite, at $76.60.
*Gold – failed to break 20-DMA and currently settled at $1962.80.

Today – Data on Consumer Confidence, Q2 GDP and US inflation. Microsoft, GM, Verizon, Alphabet, Exxon Mobil, Meta and more stocks to watch this week.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.54%) return below 1.1100 post German manufacturing PMI.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 25th July 2023.

Market Update – July 25 – Investors are Buying into Hopes


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Optimism in China’s recovery has made a comeback and investors are buying into hopes that decisive stimulus action from Beijing will boost domestic demand. The Chinese equities jumped on Tuesday, after the country’s ruling politburo vowed to boost employment and revive a “tortuous” economic recovery. China’s powerful 24-member politburo said it would tackle unemployment, speed up issuance of local government special bonds and boost consumption of electronics, electric vehicles and other goods. The JPN225 struggled through and gains in Australia were much more muted. Futures in Europe and the US haven’t moved much as markets turn cautious ahead of this week’s key central bank announcements in Germany, the US and Japan. Wheat prices climbed to a 5-month high on Tuesday, as Russian assaults against Ukrainian ports that ship the grain intensified.



*FX – The USDIndex is at 101.26. USDJPY is struggling for a third day in a row to overcome 142.00. GBP closed below 20-DMA yesterday and holds below it so far at 1.2840, while EUR holds above 1.11.
*Stocks – Hong Kong jumped as much as 5% and the Hang Seng is currently up 4.0%, while the CSI 300 has rallied 2.9%.
*Commodities – USOil spiked to $79 area. Oil is heading for a solid monthly gain, as output cuts start to bite and counterbalance concern that the sluggish recovery in China will cap demand. There are now more signs that Russia is making good on its pledge to rein in supplies with data showing that the country’s crude shipments fell to a 6-month low in the 4 weeks to July 16. Supply could further tighten in August, as Russian oil exports are set to be reduced further. A decline in drilling activity in the US is adding to supply concerns and the US Energy Information Administration has already revised down its short-term outlook for US production with further corrections possible unless the trend in drilling activity reverses. Also China flagged more measures to boost economic growth, aiding the outlook for energy demand just as the global market shows signs of tightening.
*Gold – holds a floor above 50-DMA at $1955.

Today – Germany’s Ifo business survey and IMF publishes an update to its World Economic Outlook. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Verizon, UBS, Nextera.



Biggest FX Mover USOIL spiked to $79.16 while today it sustains gains above 78 territory.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 28th July 2023.

Market Update – July 28.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

China stocks rallied and hit a 6-week high, as investor confidence in official stimulus measures strengthened. Property, financial and consumer related stocks in particular benefited, after signals of further support. The BoJ signalled a widening of the band for the 10-year yield, which was taken as a sign that the BoJ is heading for policy normalisation. The Yen rallied as a result. Bunds are selling off in early trade, after much stronger than expected French GDP numbers and as markets continue to digest yesterday’s ECB announcement. French inflation dropped to 5%, the lowest level for 16 months. In US, much stronger than expected GDP, tighter than projected jobless claims, a pop in durable goods orders, a bounce in pending home sales, and a narrowing in the goods trade deficit boosted risk for a 12th rate hike for the FED. Bonds and Stocks selloff.



Overnight: BoJ tweaks yield curve control. The BoJ kept the target for 10-year yields at around 0% but signalled that the 0.5% ceiling was now a reference point, not a rigid upper limit. It will offer to buy bonds at the 1% mark, which means an effective widening of the band. Ueda vowed to keep easing, while at the same time, he pledged to continue to ease tenaciously and to add further easing if necessary. Ueda added that he expects inflation to slow before gradually picking up again.So some attempt to play down the importance of today’s surprise move and prevent markets from buying into an imminent move towards policy normalisation.

*FX – The USDIndex held most of yesterday’s gains and is at 101.72, as the 10-year Treasury yield inched higher. The Yen strengthened with USDJPY at 138 lows. GBP drifted to 1.2760 and EUR at 1.0950.
*Stocks – The CSI 300 is up 2.1%, the Hang Seng still 1.2%, and JPN225 declined. #Evergrande plunged as trading resumed nearly 16 months after the stock was suspended pending the release of financial results. #Ford stock is higher after hours after the automaker reported strong second quarter earnings and also upped its full-year profit forecast, though it did project steeper annual losses in its EV division. Ford’s results come after its crosstown rival #GM reported strong earnings and raised its full-year profit guidance for a second time. #Intel’s (+8% after hours) earnings surprised positively after two consecutive quarters of record losses. Strong sales of drugs for cancer and diabetes helped #AstraZeneca beat sales and earnings expectations.
*Commodities – USOil spiked to $80.30 on tighter supply (Fed raises interest rates by 25 bp, US crude inventories fall less than expected, ECB raises rates to 23-year high, OPEC+ panel meeting in focus)
*Gold – drifted to $1941 from $1980, amid strong US economic data which renewed the Fed’s pledge to stay hawkish.

Today – German Inflation, Canadian GDP and US PCE, Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Procter & Gamble, Chevron etc.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.31%) bottomed at $91.78 with RSI and MACD turning below neutral in line with 3-day sharp decline. ATR(H1) is at 0.591 and ATR(D) is at 1.181.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 31st July 2023.

Market Update – July 31 – Another month of gains for stocks comes to an end.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Last Friday, the headline PCE figure for June came in at 3%, the lowest annual increase since March 2021 and just one percentage point over the Fed’s target of 2% inflation; Core set at 4.1. US indices cheered the data and are set for another strong month of gains, the fifth in a row for the US500 that is up 3% in July compared to Nasdaq which has increased 3.8%. Industrial production y/y fell in Japan as did retail sales on a monthly basis; in China, manufacturing PMI is still in contraction (49.3), while the services component is deteriorating (51.5 from 53.2). China just issued measures to recover and expand consumption as per a State Council Document just released. JPY keeps collapsing despite the ”adjustment” on the 10y policy: last Friday a mysterious buyer stepped in at 0.57%, today the BOJ officially announced unscheduled bond buying at 0.60%. This week we have the BOE and RBA (the latter tomorrow morning, expected to raise by 25 bps to 4.35% despite the latest inflation data), US NFP data and the earnings season continues with AAPL and AMZN reporting on Thursday.



Overnight: BoJ tweaks yield curve control. The BoJ kept the target for 10-year yields at around 0% but signalled that the 0.5% ceiling was now a reference point, not a rigid upper limit. It will offer to buy bonds at the 1% mark, which means an effective widening of the band. Ueda vowed to keep easing, while at the same time, he pledged to continue to ease tenaciously and to add further easing if necessary. Ueda added that he expects inflation to slow before gradually picking up again.So some attempt to play down the importance of today’s surprise move and prevent markets from buying into an imminent move towards policy normalisation.

*FX – USDIndex is up 0.2% to 101.61 boosted by a weak Yen (USDJPY -0.46% at 141.81). EURUSD sits just above 1.10, Cable hovers around 1.285, AUDUSD is bid before the RBA tomorrow (+0.51% at 0.6681).
*Stocks – US futures are slightly in red: US500 -0.13%, US30 -0.07%, US100 -0.17%. A similar picture in Europe where GER40 futures are -0.14%. GOOGL increased 10% last week and the US market is set for another month of (broad) gains.
*Commodities – USOil -0.5% now at $80.25, UKOil hit $85 and is now at $84.51.
Gold – down -0.23% to $1954.91, XAG – 0.40% at $24.24.

USDJPY, 30 mins



Today – Germany retail sales, GDP from Italy, Spain and Europe, European HICP, US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) Coffee (-2.11%) trading at $158.60 heading south towards the recent $154.50 bottom area. RSI at 41.46 and downward sloped, MACD negative, 50d – 200d MAs downward sloped (and have recently crossed).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 1st August 2023.

Market Update – August 1 – A traditionally volatile month kicks in.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Overnight RBA left rates unchanged at 4.1% against expectations: recent CPI and PPI data – much weaker than expected – must have weighed on the decision even if the bank stated that ”further monetary policy tightening may be required” and considers that inflation ”is to return to the target range of 2-3% by late 2025”. Keep in mind the tight local labour market. We had more bad data from China where Caixin Manufacturing shrank to contraction territory in July (49.2) and house sales figures reported the largest dip in a year. At least HSBC reported an 89% rise in pre-tax profit and is up 1.8% in HK. 10y JGB are still finding a bottom at 0.60%, Yen is tumbling and the Japanese Minister of Finance Suzuki is back to the rhetoric of ”closely monitoring the market”. US markets were up again yesterday and US500 has not had a >1% drop in 41 days now; Russell 2000 has been the monthly best performer testifying to how the rally is no longer driven only by Tech mega-caps but its breadth is broadening. This is the busiest week of the earnings season and after more than 160 companies included in the US500 have already reported, today we await Merck, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Norwegian, AMD and many more.

US500, 5 mins, Intraday Shorts covering at the close?


*FX – USDIndex is up 0.15% to 101.77, AUDUSD fell 0.74% after RBA decision (0.6668) giving up just some of yesterday’s gains, EURUSD is just shy of 1.10, Cable down 0.1% to 1.2820. USDJPY eyes 143.
*Stocks – US and EU futures are slightly red, -0.1% on average. Dax has been trading above its previous ATH seen in June for a couple of days now. Nikkei up 0.65% on weak JPY.
Commodities – USOil extends its rally, trades at $81.52 now. Corn, Wheat fractionally up after a 5 day losing streak, Copper reacts to $400 but is surprisingly edging higher on a 2 month perspective.
*Gold – trading at $1959 this morning, XAG at $24.85.

Today – Germany, Europe unemployment, US Canada – Spain – Italy – France – Germany Manufacturing PMI, API weekly Crude Oil Stock. EARNINGS: Uber, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Norwegian BFO; AMD, Starbucks, MicroStrategy, Pinterest, ATC.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) XLMUSD (-3.67%) trading at $0.1468 and consolidating within a triangle after the recent rally. MACD histogram just crossed to the downside, RSI negatively sloped.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 2nd August 2023.

Market Update – August 2 – U.S. rating downgraded at Fitch.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US stock futures fell Tuesday night after Fitch downgraded the US’s long-term rating to AA+ from AAA Tuesday night, citing ”an erosion of governance and expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years”. The agency called out brinksmanship in Washington around debt ceiling negotiations earlier this year. This sparked some risk aversion flows with APAC indices falling led by Japan while JPY is strengthening on safe haven trading even if Bank of Japan has pushed back on speculation its recent policy adjustment marked the start of a tightening cycle. Bonds are lower around the globe with 10Y US back above 4% and 10Y JGB at 0.62%. The negativity in Asia was also fostered by the softening of the manufacturing activity across the ASEAN region that expanded at the slowest pace in 7 months. We saw some weak macro data in the US yesterday (ISM, Jolts Jobs Openings) and particularly eye-catching has been the Crude Oil inventory data which pointed to a record weekly drawdown (-15.4M) and helped Crude to climb above $82. Earnings season is more than halfway over with results coming in stronger than expected. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported, about 82% have posted positive surprises as of last night.

US Debt to GDP ratio


*FX – JPY is the best performing major this morning, USDJPY –0.45% to 142.68, EURUSD +0.04% at 1.0989. All other currencies are down vs the USD with antipodean leading the losses, AUDUSD –0.56% at 0.6577, NZDUSD -0.74% at 0.6104. USDIndex just shy of 102.
*Stocks – Futures are negative this morning: US500 -0.49%, US100 -0.78%, GER40 -1.17%. Asia fell led by NIKKEI -2.44%, HK – 2.23%. AMD rose 2% after market after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results.
*Commodities – USOil regains $82, $82.17 now. Copper clearly lost $400 ($389 now), Agriculturals trade up with conviction.
*Gold – stuck at $1949 this morning, XAG at $24.32.

Today – US ADP National Employment. EARNINGS: PayPal, Qualcomm.



Biggest FX Mover (@6:30 GMT) JPN225 (-2.42%) trading at 32590 and just in contact with its 50d MA. RSI negatively sloped at 48.36, 5 month trendline awaits at 32k this morning.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 5th August 2023.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally.
The fallout from the Fitch ratings downgrade for the US and the worries over the debt situation the US is facing could continue weighing on the Stock market. Robust results from tech giants such as Amazon helped to lift sentiment. This week’s agenda is relatively quiet with Inflation out of the US and China dominating the calendar along with earnings releases.

Tuesday – 08 August 2023

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Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00) – China’s trade surplus fell to $70.62 billion in June 2023, as exports dropped more than imports amid persistent weak demand from home and abroad.
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German inflation for July is anticipated to remain steady at 6.5% y/y and 0.5% m/m.

Wednesday – 09 August 2023

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Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese inflation sank in June at 0.2%, with Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, at 0.4% in June, compared with 0.6% in May. PPI sank 5.4% in June from a year earlier, while the annual decline in June was China’s ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015.
RBNZ Inflation Expectations for Q3 (QoQ) (NZD, GMT 03:00)

Thursday – 10 August 2023

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Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The CPI is expected to show gains of 0.2% for the headline and 0.3% for the core in July, after June gains of 0.2% for both the headline and core. CPI gasoline prices look poised to rise 0.5% in July. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices through 2023 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected July CPI figures would result in a bigger y/y headline rise of 3.3% from 3.0% in June, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. A persistent moderation in y/y gains should be seen for all the inflation gauges through 2023 that will trim pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary conditions.

Friday – 11 August 2023

---

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y.
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – July PPI gains of 0.1% for the headline and 0.2% for the core are expected, after June rises of 0.1% for both the headline and the core. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric rising to 0.6% from 0.1%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March of 2022. We expect the y/y core measure to fall to 2.2% from 2.4%, versus an all-time high of 9.7% in March of 2022. The y/y calculation has fallen sharply through mid-2023 as comparisons have become much easier.
Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US consumer sentiment printed 71.6 for the final July reading (was 72.6 preliminary). It is up 7.2 points on the month after rising 5.2 points to 64.4 in June. Confidence has been recovering from the -5.0 plunge to 62.0 in March on the fallout from the SVB collapse and related banking fallout. This is the strongest since October 2021’s 71.7 and is now well above the record nadir of 50.0 from June 2022.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 7th August 2023.

arket Update – August 7 – ‘Soft landing’ or even ‘no landing’?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A smaller than expected 187k NFP rise and -49k in downward revisions to May and June provided the spark for the bond market to correct from the post-Fitch and supply driven selloff. The belly of the curve outperformed as the jobs report did not alter Fed policy expectations and the markets continue to price in only about a 33% risk for another rate hike. The steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. The ‘soft landing’ or even ‘no landing’ narrative is gathering momentum, and JP Morgan on Friday became the latest Wall Street bank to remove or delay their US recession call. Stocks initially rallied on the employment headlines, but spillover from disappointing Apple earnings results, which overshadowed Amazon’s beat, saw buying peter out and profits taken through the afternoon.



This morning: German industrial production contracted -1.5% m/m in June – more than anticipated after two strong months of orders inflow for the manufacturing sector. The strong bounce in manufacturing orders offers some hope for the coming month, but construction is likely to continue to struggle. Consumption may have strengthened in the second quarter, but these numbers leave the risk of a downward revision to Q2 GDP.

*FX – USD Index rose at 102.05, EURUSD fell back to 1.0980, USDJPY recovered some losses but is struggling to break 142.30. Cable holds at 1-month lows, currently at 1.2720.
*Stocks – The US100, US500 and MSCI World index last week all registered their biggest weekly losses since March. Amazon closed +8.27% and Apple at -4.8%. Today, Asian share markets were in a cautious mood, JPN225 is flat, EUROSTOXX 50 -0.3%, UK100 0.5%, US500 +0.3% and US100 +0.5%.
*Commodities – USOil at $82.85, after Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they will extend voluntary output cuts. Ukraine added a new front in its war against Russia over the weekend, using drones to strike a naval vessel at a Russian oil-exporting port in the Black Sea and an oil tanker in the Kerch Strait.
*Gold – pulled back to $1935.44 below PP.

Today: July CPI and earnings out of Disney will highlight the calendar this week. Asia’s corporate earnings season picks up this week, with Alibaba the standout in a trickle from China.



Biggest Mover: (@6:30 GMT) GBPUSD holds at 1-month lows. It is approaching the resistance line of a down channel Support: 1.2620.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 8th August 2023.

Market Update – August 8 – Risk Appetite Picked Up.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Risk appetite picked up,the US Dollar has been supported as Yields backed up and US futures outperformed. On the other hand, the advent of the August refunding supply left Treasuries heavy, especially in the wake of the debt warnings from the Fitch downgrade. Further erosion in recession outlooks contributed to the rally while the mix of earnings made for choppy upside action. Markets are looking ahead to this week’s US inflation report, after Fed’s Bowman suggested over the weekend that more hikes may be needed. NY Williams also left the door open for more hikes. Overnight we had seen China exports plunge again, which weighed on confidence.

*FX – USD Index is choppy and holds close to 102. EUR and GBP corrected amid weak economic data and as confidence in a soft landing for the US strengthened. EURUSD sideways at 1.10, Cable holds in the downchannel, currently at 1.2765. USDJPY extended 143.45.
*Stocks – The US30 led the way with a 1.16% surge, recovering from 3 straight declines. The US500 advanced 0.90% and the US100 was up 0.61% after 4 consecutive drops on both indexes. #BeyondMeat abandoned its hopes of becoming cash flow positive this year and cut its sales outlook, sending its shares down more than 8% in extended trading.
*Commodities – USOil has corrected from recent highs and is currently settled at $80.90.
*Gold – Ranging within $1930-$1938 area.

Today: FOMC Member Harker speech, Eli Lilly, UPS, Duke Energy earnings on tap.



Biggest Mover: (@6:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.76%) broke August lows at 0.6060. Next immediate support levels are set at 0.6050 and 0.6030.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 9th August 2023.

Market Update – August 9 – Defensive Stock Markets.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Treasuries put in a good day, finding a solid bid as poor Chinese trade data elevated fears over global growth again. Also, there was weakness in the regional banking sector after Moody’s downgraded 10 small and medium sized banks. Fedspeak supported too after Harker and Barkin indicated the FOMC could probably be patient, though more data will be needed to make sure. Stock markets across Asia were mostly under pressure as yesterday’s bout of risk aversion lingered. Yields continued to decline and Bonds are also higher in Europe and the US, while European and US futures are finding buyers after yesterday’s sell off. Falling wages and the speculation of additional stimulus measures for China are also adding support.



Overnight: China faces deflation as data for July showed that both consumer and producer prices dropped versus July 2022. CPI was down -0.3% y/y, the first decline since February 2021. PPI contracted -4.4% y/y, which was the 10th consecutive month of negative annual rates. It was the first time since November 2020 that both consumer and producer prices were in negative territory and the numbers are a further sign that both consumers and businesses are struggling, with plunging demand for exports and weak consumer spending weighing on the economy. The data will add to pressure on officials to do more to boost activity.

*FX – USD Index corrected from yesterday’s highs and is at 102.334 as risk appetite improved. EURUSD sideways at 1.0970, Cable retests at 1.2800.
*Stocks – Wall Street ended in the red but off of early lows. The US100 declined -0.79%, while the US30 was down -0.45%, with the US500 falling -0.42%. Financials and materials underperformed. The JPN225 closed with a -0.5% loss, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are also in the red. AMC rose nearly 3% after hours, while it has risen about 26% so far this year. AMC said that the current quarter was off to a strong start, driven by box-office hits such as Barbie and Oppenheimer, after posting a surprise profit and beating second-quarter revenue estimates.
*Commodities – USOil spiked to $82.62.
*Gold – was 0.3% higher at $1,930.18.

Today: Disney earnings on tap.



Key Mover: USOIL retests 10-month resistance, while it has fully recovered the week’s losses and is currently settled at 82.70.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 10th August 2023.

Market Update – August 10 – Disney missed forecasts – US Inflation ahead!


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Yields have moved higher, but stock market sentiment also improved as investors look ahead to key US inflation data. The Hang Seng underperformed overnight, but elsewhere indexes managed to move higher. European markets are narrowly mixed at the start of the session, US futures are moving higher. Bonds have pared overnight losses, but the US 10-year rate is still up 1.3 bp at 4.018%, while Bund and Gilt yields have lifted 2.7 bp and 2.4 bp respectively. Fears that the CPI report might be too elevated to keep the FOMC sidelined in September elicited profit taking on recent gains. In earnings front, Disney missed revenue forecasts, Disney reporting that streaming losses totaled $512 million in its fiscal third quarter, about half of the $1.1 billion loss reported in the prior-year period and less than the $777 million loss forecast by analysts. European gas prices rose 30% on fears over Australian supply.



Overnight: China faces deflation as data for July showed that both consumer and producer prices dropped versus July 2022. CPI was down -0.3% y/y, the first decline since February 2021. PPI contracted -4.4% y/y, which was the 10th consecutive month of negative annual rates. It was the first time since November 2020 that both consumer and producer prices were in negative territory and the numbers are a further sign that both consumers and businesses are struggling, with plunging demand for exports and weak consumer spending weighing on the economy. The data will add to pressure on officials to do more to boost activity.

*FX – USDIndex was little changed at 102 after trading in a narrow range from 102.29 to 102.58. EURUSD higher at 1.1020, Cable jumped to 1.2760 from 1.2705.
*Stocks – The US100 underperformed, sliding -1.17% on the weakness in big tech. The US500 dropped -0.7% and the US30 declined -0.54% with IT leading the way lower.
*Commodities – USOil spiked to $84.26 breaking 11-month highs, supported by the spike of gas. European natural gas prices surged more than 30%, as the potential for liquefied natural gas supply disruptions from Australia spooked traders who have been betting against the price. A pop in USOIL prices to 11-month high at $84.65 added to anxiety over inflationary pressures.
*Gold – is ranging at $1,915- $1,920.

Today: US inflation and Jobless claims.



Biggest FX Mover: CHFJPY (+0.56%) spiked to 164.89, with 165 the next resistance level.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 14th August 2023.

Market Update – August 14- CNH, CHINA50 slide, JPY nears 2022’s intervention zone, PPI ticks up.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia is in dire straits: CHINA50 and HK are down more than 2% as problems with developer Country Garden intensify and the stock is down almost -15% at its lows after suspending trading on 11 onshore bonds. Its issuance dated 01/2024 has fallen as low as 9 cents, indicating a yield of 2500%: a bankruptcy now seems inevitable, it remains to be seen how much the system will be able to sterilise it. The USDCNH currently trades at 7.2757, what would be the highest settlement of the year. But it is not the only one: the USDJPY touched 145.20, a new one-year low for the yen. Last year above 146, the BOJ’s monetary defence with open market interventions had begun and many traders expect something similar this year.



Back in the West, a higher-than-expected PPI figure favoured another red day for the US indices from which only the US30 was saved: that’s two weeks in a row of declines for both the US500 and US100. Remember that producer prices move ahead of consumer ones. Meanwhile, the USD continues to rise for the fourth week in a row and so does the Crude, up for 7 weeks in a row: the energy sector is now the best performer and has largely overtaken technology in short-term performance. Rates are on the rise again with the 2y at 4.90% and the 10y at 4.17%.

*FX – USDIndex up for weeks in a row trading at 102.80 now, approaching the channel down and the 200MA; both EURUSD and CABLE are -0.10% (1.0938, 1.2681) and seem to be close to break down their 10 months long uptrends.
*Stocks – US futures are -0.2% this morning, JPN225 -1.44%, AUS200 -0.87%, DAX -0.4% and clearly trading below its 50MA (as US100 is).
*Commodities –USOil -0.96% at $82.24, UKOil -0.93% at $85.58, another red day for Copper ($370).
*Gold – Down at $1913 as yield are rising.

Today: No data till tonight when Japanese GDP, RBA minutes and Chinese Retail Sales + Industrial Production will hit the tape.



Interesting Mover: US100 (0.15%) is trading below its 50MA and have broken the first steepest (yellow) trendline. 14935 area is now a weak static support.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 18th August 2023.

BRICS Summit’s Bold Gambit: The Drive Towards a New Currency Takes Centre Stage.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The BRICS summit serves as a gathering of strategic minds hailing from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — a formidable union constituting nearly a quarter of global GDP and embracing 40% of the world’s populace. This annual convergence navigates a spectrum of vital concerns: trade, investment, innovation, development, and the orchestration of global governance. The 15th BRICS summit is set to unfold from August 22 to 24, 2023, with Sandton, South Africa’s iconic skyline, painting the backdrop.

At the epicentre of this summit rests a notion that could potentially recalibrate the global financial paradigm: the inception of a unified BRICS currency. It is a proposition with profound implications, wherein some BRICS members are aiming to offer an alternative to the dominant US Dollar, which holds the reins of international trade and finance with an iron grip—commanding 88% of global transactions and 58% of foreign exchange reserves. Yet, BRICS nations have weathered the dollar’s storm—navigating sanctions, trade tensions, debt quandaries, and inflationary waves.



Endeavours to free their economies from the dollar’s grasp are well underway. Consider Russia and China begging to trade in their own currencies, or the flourishing partnerships fostering alternatives such as the Euro and Gold. The potent Yuan has knitted stronger ties between Brazil, India, and China, while the New Development Bank (NDB) stands tall as a testament of their collective might—enabling BRICS to channel investments into robust infrastructure and sustainable dreams, all while dealing in their own currencies.

However, fashioning a new currency is like sculpting a masterpiece. The path forward is laden with challenges, such as a delicate choreography of design, governance, issuance, distribution, exchange rates, and global acceptance. As they embark on this journey, we also have to acknowledge the differences in economic magnitude, structure, policy orientation, and strategic visions between these countries. These divergent elements, while inspiring, present challenges to the harmonious orchestration of a new currency.



The dollar’s supremacy will not crumble overnight. Its roots run deep, fortified by the intricate web of global finance and unwavering trust. Governments, banks, corporations, investors, and individuals alike view the Dollar as a paragon of value, a cornerstone of commerce, a sanctuary for assets, and a bedrock for reserves. The allure of the US financial markets adds to its enduring power.

The pursuit, though risky, promises metamorphosis. Imagine a new BRICS currency, vibrant and resilient, standing shoulder to shoulder with the Dollar. Should it emerge as a contender, it could provide a much-needed alternative, branching out international trade and finance. The repercussions would resonate, and potentially see the dollar’s dominance challenged, its grip weakened, and the stage set for a more diverse financial narrative. Beyond the tangible, if successful the new currency could shield the countries within BRICS from the tempestuous winds of external shocks and dollar-driven fluctuations. It could amplify their voice in global economic governance, adding to the world’s economic discourse.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Francois du Plessis
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 21st August 2023.

Market Update – 21 August – PBOC disappoints, markets quiet.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

APAC stocks traded mixed as the disappointment from China’s decision on its Loan Prime Rates overshadowed its recent support efforts; Hong Kong underperformed. PBOC opted for a narrower-than-expected cut to the 1-year LPR alongside a surprise hold on the 5-year LPR, which is the reference rate for mortgages. PBOC and regulators met with bank executives and told lenders to boost loans to support the economic recovery instead. Meanwhile Country Garden has been delisted from the Hang Seng as the real estate sector in China crumbles before our eyes.



US500 futures were little changed on Sunday night after another losing week for the major averages: US100 closed the week lower about 2.6%, down for a third straight week for the first time since December. Meanwhile, the Dow closed the week lower by 2.2%, its worst streak since March. And the S&P 500 dropped 2.1% and posted its third consecutive losing week, which hadn’t happened since February. German PPI are just out, showing another consistent decline, but Unions at Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf offshore gas platforms on Sunday announced plans to strike as early as September 2nd, sending EU Natural Gas +18% this morning. On the inflation side we also have Japan, which is set to increase minimum pay by a record amount as inflation takes hold and 200 cargo ships are stuck waiting to cross the Panama Canal Water as shortages caused by the worst drought in 100 years have forced the canal operators to reduce the flow of traffic, which could have consequences for the global supply chain also as a result of what appears to be a still strong American consumer market.

Panama channel congestion real time



*FX – USDIndex is steady above 103 (103.32 now) and well above its 50-200 MAs; USDJPY found support above 145 (145.45 now), USDCNH heading north (7.33). NZDUSD keeps drifting lower (as does AUDUSD) after the Trade Balance data. Cable flat and lateral (1.2690 – 1.2765).
*Stocks – US and EU Futures are flat, Hong Kong slides again (-1.60% at 17631) despite Country Garden delisting.
*Commodities – USOil keeps recovering some ground, currently +0.61% at $81.88, the same for Copper steady at $371.20 after rebounding from the trendline last week.
*Gold – flat at $1,889 as is Silver ($22.75).

Today: No more relevant data after PBOC rate decision and German PPI earlier this morning.



Interesting Mover: VIX (-0.27%) @ 18.45, is pulling back after having tested its 200MA on Friday (Opex day); It’s finally back above the area that has been support after 2020 and should consolidate here. A move to the upside would have the 20.50-22 area as the next target.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 22nd August 2023.

Market Update – August 22 – US 10 year yield hits decades-long high, Tech rallies.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Futures are marginally higher this morning after US100 and US500 snapped a four day negative streak yesterday with the tech heavy index posting its biggest advance of the month (+1.65%) boosted by Tesla and Nvidia‘s performances. The chip maker rose 8.47% after being upgraded by HSBC (target price $780) and only 2 days before the much-anticipated earnings report that will come out Wednesday after the bell when we’ll find out whether the company’s revenue forecast – which was 50% higher than Wall Street estimates – will come to fruition. The Tech rally held despite yields on US Treasuries spiking again with the 10Y closing at 4.342% – its highest level since November 2007 – the 2Y trading above 5% and 10Y real rates shortly hitting 2%. Typically higher rates are negative for tech and growth stocks as they affect their future flows discount (despite of their cost of financing) but this was not the case yesterday. On the stock side, Softbank’s chip unit ARM is set to list at Nasdaq, becoming the largest IPO of 2023. Also, Zoom shares climbed around 4% after the close after reporting earnings that beat expectations.



*FX – USDIndex is trading at 103.04 right now (-0.16%), EURUSD is north of 1.09 (1.0918, +0.21%) and trading between its 50 and 200 MAs as CABLE is doing (1.2784). USDJPY is pulling back (145.89) after having touched 146.50 overnight.
*Stocks – US and EU Futures marginally higher (+0.07% US30/+0.15% US100/+0.16% GER40); JPN225 rose 0.9% on tech strength while China slipped on Miners weakness.
*Commodities – USOil -0.15% at $80.76 after having pulled back from $82.44 yesterday; Copper is catching a bid (+0.7% at $374.5) as are other metals (Palladium +0.62%, Platinum +0.82%).
*Gold – Shy of $1900 despite higher rates.



Today: EU current account, Richmond Fed Index, speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bowman & Goolsbee.

Interesting Mover: Nvidia rose 8.47% to $469.67, jumping above its 50-day MA and putting its recent highs ($480) in sight. Seems to have found support on the lower bound of an extremely steep channel; RSI heading higher and not overbought.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 23rd August 2023.

Market Update – August 23 – Waiting for Nvidia, PMIs & Jackson Hole.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

On a day when Monday’s optimism had already faded in US markets, weighed down by both a new downgrade of the banking sector’s credit rating – this time by S&P – and the pullback of NVDA, one of the most interesting movements was the USD. Without any real news flow and without any abrupt movements in the bond market, the US currency appreciated steadily throughout the day – slowly but surely – especially against the currencies of the European continent (the YEN was saved from the selling and this is another piece of news). This was a purely technical movement, without any important levels being vulnerable – an adjustment of flows – but the EURUSD for example fell 97 pips from the highs to the lows of the day. All this on the day that the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg started, there was talk of ”inevitable de-dollarisation’‘ and President Putin assured that the trade in USD between the constituent countries is now only 28%. Back on the corporate side, retail is showing much more mixed results than the official stats show: yesterday MACY‘s dropped 14% after reiterating its conservative outlook, while LOWE‘s rose 3% after beating expectations; Nike has been down for 8 consecutive sessions, its worst streak ever. Today will see Peloton, Foot Locker, Abercrombie and especially NVIDIA after the close: implied volatility in the options market is for an 8.8% move after the results. Today is PMI day, tomorrow the Jackson Hole Symposium kicks off.



*FX – USDIndex -0.05% at 103.42 after rebounding on its 200 MA yesterday; EURUSD sitting on its ST support (1.0855), CABLE 1.2748, YEN eked out a gain yesterday and is now trading at 145.667. USDCNH < 7.30.
*Stocks – US and EU Futures higher (+0.28% US30/+0.56% US100/+0.42% US500/ +0.34% GER40); China50 -0.59% despite good BAIDU earnings results.
*Commodities – USOil is below $80 ($79.54 now), UKOil relatively stronger at $83.87.
*Gold – Rising at $1904.41, XAG outperforming (-1.17% at $23.67).

Today: HCOB PMIs Composite, Manufacturing, Services in Germany, France, Europe, SP PMIs in UK, US, Home Sales in US, European Consumer Confidence.

EURUSD, 30 mins



Interesting Mover: EURUSD (+0.12% @ 1.0859) hovering around the support area of 1.0840/1.0855 after falling from a high of 1.0930 to a low of 1.0832 yesterday. MA 200 at 1.08.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 24th August 2023.

Market Update – August 24 – NVDA posts stellar Q2 results; Stocks, Bonds, Metals rally on eve of Jackson Hole.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Let’s start with NVIDIA that after the close reported results of a stellar Q2 and topped analyst estimates both on Revenues ($13.51 billion vs $11.22 billion expected) and EPS ($2.70 vs $2.09). The company raised its forecast again and expects its Q3 revenues to climb to $16 billion, an increase of 170% y/y. Gains are driven by the data center business. In after hours trading the chip-maker rose 6.57% also driving up AMD (+4%) and TSMC (+3.1%). Indices added to this week rally despite weak PMIs data around the Developed Markets that instead weighted on local currencies: EUR, GBP and USD fell in this order during the day after lackluster readings. Interestingly, the EURUSD perfectly rebounded on its 200 MA.



US 30y mortgage rate soared to 7.31% and this led to the lowest Mortgage applications since 1995: despite that, US new home sales rose in July. Bonds rallied around the world with the UK Gilt up 2.13% after traders repriced the terminal rate well below 6% and a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters now believe the September hike to 5.5% will be the last one. German Bund gave up >10 bps and the 10y US T-note is 17bps off this week’s high. All of this gave wings to Gold, which touched $1921, and especially Silver, which rose 3.88%. Overnight, Asia joined the party and China50 rebounded strongly from near one-year lows.

US Mortgage 30 Years Rate and Mortgage Applications



*FX – USDIndex -0.05% at 103.28, EURUSD flat at 1.0865 after falling as low as 1.0802 yesterday, GBPUSD -0.09% @ 1.2713 still between the recent 1.2615/1.2785 range, USDJPY back above 145 (breached yesterday).
*Stocks – US Futures almost flat (-0.05% US30/+0.16% US100/+0.05% US500), EU Futures up 0.4%/0.6%; CHINA50 +1.42%, Hang Seng +1.91%, JPN225 +0.79%.
*Commodities – USOil is below $79 ($78.48 now) despite the bigger than expected drain from Oil Stocks (EIA data).
*Gold – holding at $1921, XAG consolidating at $24.23 after yesterday’s rally.

Later Today: US Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, JACKSON HOLE kicks off.



Interesting Mover: USDIndex (-0.05% @ 103.28) pulled back after rising as high as 103.90 in what could be the test of the upper bound of a channel. It is trading above both the 50 and 200 MA and both RSI and MACD are positive and upward sloping.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 25th August 2023.

Market Update – August 25 – Powell at Jackson Hole, inflation mission not accomplished yet.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US equity markets pulled back strongly yesterday with US30 having its worst day since March, US100 its second worst in August and US500 swinging down $105 from the daily high to the daily low and drawing a big bearish engulfing pattern. The mighty NVDA started trading up 6.50% and ended the day +0.10%; JPN225 leads losses in Asia this morning (-2%). Yields rose and USD strengthened. Markets are cautious before today’s Jerome Powell intervention at the Jackson Hole symposium. The general consensus is that he will try to stay neutral, with no big surprises but a slight tilt to the hawkish side. Nothing similar to last year of course: but the FED does not think its fight against inflation is won yet and the strong economic data give it some room to act. Some energy prices have started to rise again lately – see Oil or Gasoline – but also Rice and Pork Belly are getting extremely expensive: the Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August’s figures will show a noticeable jump. It’s not time to declare ”mission accomplished” yet.



There has been some chatter about R* lately: this is the neutral interest rate of an economy, a mostly academic concept difficult to calculate and around which, incidentally, Powell developed his first speech in Jackson Hole in 2018. Nick Timiraos is a WSJ journalist who is known to be very close to the FED and in a recent article he brought up the subject of if the long-term neutral rate had not moved up in the US. Just yesterday, the WSJ also published an article wondering whether it was not time for the Fed to move the inflation target towards 3%. Is this perhaps a test of the reaction of the most informed and sophisticated investors? The Fed in June capped the R-Star at 2.5%: who knows if Powell will say anything about that and if there will be any news in September.

We shall see at 14:00 GMT.

*FX – USDIndex > 104 (104.12), EURUSD below its 50MA at 1.0783, GBPUSD 1.2570 (-0.24%), USDJPY 146.06, USDTRY pulling back (26.52) after the big drop yesterday following the hike to 25%.
*Stocks – US100 closed -2.19%, US500 -1.35%, US30 -1.08%; NVDA +0.10%, TSLA – 2.88%, MSFT -2.15%, AAPL -2.62%, META -2.55%, GOOGL -2.09%.
*Commodities – USOil in green for a second day, +0.65% at $79.36, Palladium keeps falling (-0.82% after yesterday’s -2.88%).
*Gold – $1913, XAG -0.35% slightly above $24.

Later Today: Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, German IFO, US Michigan Consumer Sentiment index, ECB’s Lagarde speech. German GDP out at -0.2% y/y.



Interesting Mover: US500 (-1.35% the cash close @ 4376) gave up $105 (or roughly 2.5%) from the intraday high after testing from the downside the 50d MA and drawing a big bearish engulfing pattern.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 28th August 2023.

Rates differential is only one part of the equation but ECB has it still tough – EURUSD.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

It is widely believed, not without reason, that the task of Lagarde and the ECB is far more difficult than that of her counterpart across the ocean. The PMI data of a few days ago showed grim future prospects, not just for manufacturing which we are used to by now. The leading data on services also returned to contraction after 7 months (48.3), following the composite that relapsed below the critical threshold two months ago. GDP growth for Q2 was not bad (+0.3%), but heavily influenced by the strong Irish figure while Germany continued to stagnate.

Services PMI lhs, Composite PMI rhs



At the same time, price pressure continues to be too high, especially in the service sector, due to wage pressures. True, the PPI has been declining m/m since the beginning of the year and is now in deflationary territory, but both core and headline consumer inflation readings are above 5% (5.5% and 5.3% respectively). If we look at the monthly data, both measures decreased in July but only imperceptibly (+0.1%) and for the first time after 5 months of increases.

Core Inflation m/m



That is why in Jackson Hole last Friday, the president of the ECB said central bankers had to be “extremely attentive that greater volatility in relative prices does not creep into medium-term inflation through wages repeatedly ‘chasing’ prices’’ and that “if global supply does become less elastic, including in the labour market, and global competition is reduced, we should expect prices to take on a greater role in adjustment’’.

The ECB has left the door open to a pause in policy tightening at its next meeting on September 14 and currently a hike at that meeting is only 40% priced in. Despite this, ultra hawkish voices such as Nagel’s have been heard saying it’s too early to think about a pause.

Looking at the futures curve of both the 1- and 3-month Euro short-term rate (ESTR) linked to the new Eurozone overnight swap, there is not a consistent probability of a further hike: the highest level currently priced is for January 2024 at 3.825% (13.5 bps higher than the September 2023 contract). The official deposit rate as of today is 3.75%. The 3m Euribor future gives a very similar picture peaking between December 2023 and March 2024 at levels that do not yet price a 4% deposit rate. (Remember that the ECB has 3 rates, deposit, main refinancing and marginal lending).



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Having said all this, the exchange rate between 2 currencies is influenced by many difficult-to-quantify factors and the interest rate differential is only 1 of them. The EURUSD returned to trade at the 1.07 handle Friday and is recovering to 1.08 (1.0818 now) this morning. It is trying to react to the MA 200 (1.0806) and seems to be close to the lower part of a slightly tilted bullish channel in which it has been moving since early 2023 (note that at the beginning of August it lost the steepest trendline at 1.0975). It will be important to see the reaction to the current levels of this pair so sold lately, as 1.0735 will probably have to hold to avoid further downside (to 1.05?). A reaction will face resistance first at 1.09 and then close to the 50MA (1.0976 today).




Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 29th August 2023.

Market Update – August 29 – Stock markets supported by China hopes and falling yields.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Treasuries and Wall Street rallied to kick off the last week of the month for what’s been a pretty bearish August. The same stands so far today. Rate hike fears amid a “higher for longer” policy stance, supply concerns, worries over spillover from slowing growth from China, mixed earnings, and fading AI enthusiasm helped knock bonds and stocks lower through August. But with yields having climbed to 16-year highs and much of the threat from still-hawkish monetary policy priced in, shorts covered and dip buyers emerged.

Treasury yields declined across tenors, with the 2-year dropping to slightly below 5%. The auctions of 2- and 5-year Treasury notes Monday drew the highest yields since before the 2008 financial crisis, a reflection of the US bond-market selloff that deepened last week in anticipation of another rate increase by the Federal Reserve. This is the first 5% handle and the highest award rate since July 2006.



This morning, the Japan unemployment rate for July came in higher than expected & German GfK consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since May. Pessimists far outnumber optimists and the full breakdown, which is only available until August, showed that the assessment of income expectations deteriorated markedly. Not a positive report and the disappointing numbers tie in with the weakness in business confidence readings. Overall GDP growth is expected to contract this year and political headlines at home are not helping to lift the mood. The ECB seems to be expecting a soft landing though, so those numbers don’t necessarily mean that the ECB will pause next month, as the hawks seem to favor getting any additional hikes that may be needed out of the way.

*FX – USDIndex weakened against the G10 and dipped to 103.73 overnight, EURUSD spiked to 1.0837 (strong resistance area at 1.0840) , GBPUSD holds gains at 1.2617 and USDJPY sideways at 146.27-146.75. – Goldman sees Yen falling to 1990 levels if BOJ stays dovish!
*Stocks – The US100 advanced 0.84%, with the US500 up 0.63% on broadbased gains. Of note, this is the first back-to-back gain for August. The US30 was up 0.62%. NVDA +1.78%, Alphabet +0.87%, 3M +5.22%, GS +0.84%, DIS +0.96%, AAPL +0.88%, AMD +0.35%. European stocks made a positive start today, tracking positive momentum around the world.
*Commodities – USOil up by 0.35% to $79.55.
*Gold – rose 0.2% to $1,925.75.
*BTCUSD rose 0.3% to $26,054.53, ETHUSD rose 0.2% to $1,649.81.

Today: US Housing Price Index, Jolts & Consumer Confidence.



Interesting Mover: EURAUD (-0.26%) broke below 1.6800, with a bearish cross of 10- and 20-period EMA extending lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date 31st August 2023.

Market Update – August 31 – Markets sustain the “Bad News Is Good News” stance.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight, with mainland China bourses underperforming. Chinese manufacturing contracted in August for a 5th straight month, while Chinese property stocks fell after Country Garden, once the country’s largest developer by sales, reported record losses and China Vanke cancelled a share placement. China’s property sector is dealing with a renewed liquidity crisis. Country Garden on Wednesday reported a $7bn first-half loss, its worst ever. European stock futures are higher, also helped by upbeat reports from UBS. French inflation numbers were much higher than anticipated.



German retail sales disappointed again. Sales dropped -0.8% m/m in July. Expectations had been for a slight rise, after the two consecutive months of contraction. Consumer confidence also deteriorated again in data released yesterday, and high inflation and rising debt financing costs are still curtailing consumption.

*FX – USDIndex recovered to 103.25 from 102.84 lows, EURUSD turned to 1.0889 from 1.0949, GBPUSD steady at 1.2700 and USDJPY lifted to 146.30 with the Yen still close to the weakest level in over nine months as markets continue to test the resolve of officials to keep the currency underpinned.
*Stocks – The US100 surged 1.74%, while the US500 advanced 1.45%, with the US30 up 0.85%. The US500 rose for a 4th straight session, the first time since the end of July. And it broke resistance at 4440 to extend the move to 4495. UBS reports huge 2Q profit skewed by Credit Suisse takeover, foresees $10B in cost cuts.
*Commodities – USOil sideways at 81.44 failing o break the 61.8% Fib. level from the August downleg.
*Gold – Spiked to $1,949.

Today: Eurozone CPI readings are likely to surprise on the upside, which will boost rate hike bets. Also the July income, consumption, and PCE deflator numbers will be scrutinized, along with weekly jobless claims.



Key Mover: XAUEUR (+0.51%) retests 2-month Supply Zone at 1785-1795.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 1st September 2023.

Market Update – September 1 – The Calm Before the Storm?


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The markets were quiet on the last day of August, awaiting the key jobs report today. Treasuries and the US Dollar were firmer, but off their best levels, while Wall Street closed mixed. Ongoing expectations that the FOMC can pause, or is done with rate hikes continued to support along with the lingering impact from the dovish JOLTS result, the cooling in ADP, and the downward revision to Q2 GDP. Income numbers were in line with expectations, including the pick up in y/y inflation metrics, and hence did not hurt the optimistic Fed outlook. The drop in jobless claims was also overlooked. Month-end buying also supported.



Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Hang Seng and ASX struggling, while JPN225 and CSI 300 nudged higher. Futures are posting fractional gains in Europe and the US, although the US100 is struggling. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.4 bp as the all important US jobs report comes into view.

*FX – USDIndex recovered Wednesday’s losses and is currently settled at 103.71, EURUSD turned down to 1.0830, GBPUSD pulled back to 1.2650. Both EUR and Sterling corrected today as markets reined in tightening expectations for BoE and ECB, with yields dropping across the board and Eurozone spreads coming in. US data added further support for the USD as markets assess the interest rate outlook.
*Stocks – Wall Street gave up its gains and faded into the close, leaving the US30 and US500 down -0.48% and -0.16%, respectively, breaking a string of four straight days of gains. The US100 was up 0.11%, higher for a fifth consecutive session.
*Commodities – USOil prices have extended gains with WTI now up 1.9% to $83.65 and Brent 1.25% firmer at $87.15. This is a sixth consecutive session of gains on WTI, the best run since the start of the year. Along with the signs of a still robust US economy, indication of more stimulus from China, and declining stockpiles, Bloomberg reports that Russia has agreed with OPEC+ to extend output cuts. Also, the impacts from Hurricane Idalia are still being assessed.



Key Mover: USOil & UKOIL have extended gains by 1.9% to $83.65 and 1.25% to $87.15 respectively as Bloomberg reported Russia has agreed with OPEC+ to extend output cuts.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 4th September 2023.

Market Update – September 4- The first full week of a historically negative month for Stocks and Gold kicks in.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

First of all a reminder: US and Canadian cash markets will be closed today because of the Labour Day celebration, obviously resulting in diminished flows this afternoon. Going back in chronological order, APAC is led by the excellent performance of the China50 and especially Hong Kong where a surge on real estate stocks helped the indices to add 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. This comes after embattled Country Garden reportedly won approval to extend payments for an onshore Private Bond and is now up 7.9% (just out the wire they are trying to get financing in Malaysian Ringgit); the overall Mainland Properties Index is +7.32%. This week there will be important data from this hemisphere with the RBA rate decision and the Chinese trade balance.

Friday’s NFP figure was slightly better than expected (+187k vs +170k expected) but at the same time the previous two readings were revised downwards by 100k, while the unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.8% (3.5% expected) also as a result of an increase in labour force participation (62.8% vs 62.6%). There are more people seeking employment and this is probably one of the factors that led to a fractional decrease in Average Hourly Earnings. Overall, we emerge from the week with the impression that the labour market is finally starting to slow down.

Relative Performances by Sector, August



Yields and USD reacted by plummeting shortly after the data, before totally reverting the move and ending the day up; the long-end has experienced the heavier selling pressure, resulting in the curve steepening.

Crude oil soared again (+2.30%) with the EIA and API data showing considerable pressure on stocks during the week probably due to the effect of several months of production cuts. At the same time, Copper hit $390 before sellers emerged, adding to its 6.50% rally since mid August on decent Chinese Manufacturing data.

*FX – USDIndex recovered 104 (104.09 now), EURUSD turned below 1.08 (1.07865, GBPUSD just north of 1.26 (1.2609). USDJPY sits above 146 once again, USDCNH 7.2667.
*Stocks – US30 closed higher on Friday and notched its best week since July. US500 +0.2%, US100 -0.02% but still up +3.67% on the week. In Europe GER40 closed -0.6%, CAC40 – 0.29%.
*Commodities – USOil is digesting last Friday’s rally, now -0.61% at $85.48, the spread against UKOil has reduced to $2.97. Copper flat at $385 after sellers emerged at $390 on Friday.
*Gold – still hovering around $1940, XAG pulled back powerfully from $25 ($24.18 now).

LATER TODAY: German Trade Balance, Switzerland GDP, EU Sentix confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech



INTERESTING MOVER: TESLA -5.06% at $245.01 after lowering the US prices of its Model S and X for the seventh time in 2023, now $30k and $40k respectively cheaper than at the beginning of the year. The price was rejected by the 50MA and the MACD is negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 5th September 2023.

Market Update – September 5 – RBA on hold, Chinese services deteriorate after a Monday without US lead.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

First of all a reminder: US and Canadian cash markets will be closed today because of the Labour Day celebration, obviously resulting in diminished flows this afternoon. Going back in chronological order, APAC is led by the excellent performance of the China50 and especially Hong Kong where a surge on real estate stocks helped the indices to add 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. This comes after embattled Country Garden reportedly won approval to extend payments for an onshore Private Bond and is now up 7.9% (just out the wire they are trying to get financing in Malaysian Ringgit); the overall Mainland Properties Index is +7.32%. This week there will be important data from this hemisphere with the RBA rate decision and the Chinese trade balance.

Friday’s NFP figure was slightly better than expected (+187k vs +170k expected) but at the same time the previous two readings were revised downwards by 100k, while the unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.8% (3.5% expected) also as a result of an increase in labour force participation (62.8% vs 62.6%). There are more people seeking employment and this is probably one of the factors that led to a fractional decrease in Average Hourly Earnings. Overall, we emerge from the week with the impression that the labour market is finally starting to slow down.

Relative Performances by Sector, August



Yields and USD reacted by plummeting shortly after the data, before totally reverting the move and ending the day up; the long-end has experienced the heavier selling pressure, resulting in the curve steepening.

Crude oil soared again (+2.30%) with the EIA and API data showing considerable pressure on stocks during the week probably due to the effect of several months of production cuts. At the same time, Copper hit $390 before sellers emerged, adding to its 6.50% rally since mid August on decent Chinese Manufacturing data.

*FX – USDIndex recovered 104 (104.09 now), EURUSD turned below 1.08 (1.07865, GBPUSD just north of 1.26 (1.2609). USDJPY sits above 146 once again, USDCNH 7.2667.
*Stocks – US30 closed higher on Friday and notched its best week since July. US500 +0.2%, US100 -0.02% but still up +3.67% on the week. In Europe GER40 closed -0.6%, CAC40 – 0.29%.
*Commodities – USOil is digesting last Friday’s rally, now -0.61% at $85.48, the spread against UKOil has reduced to $2.97. Copper flat at $385 after sellers emerged at $390 on Friday.
*Gold – still hovering around $1940, XAG pulled back powerfully from $25 ($24.18 now).

LATER TODAY: German Trade Balance, Switzerland GDP, EU Sentix confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech



INTERESTING MOVER: TESLA -5.06% at $245.01 after lowering the US prices of its Model S and X for the seventh time in 2023, now $30k and $40k respectively cheaper than at the beginning of the year. The price was rejected by the 50MA and the MACD is negative.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 6th September 2023.

Market Update – September 6 – Saudis, Russia extend voluntary production cuts.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

US stocks fell on Tuesday – with the exception of the US100 – weighed down by higher oil prices and rising Treasury yields. Saudi Arabia will extend its 1 million barrel per day voluntary oil production cut until the end of the year, according to the state-owned Saudi Press Agency, and the cut adds to the 1.66 million barrels per day that other OPEC members have put in place until the end of 2024. Russia, through its Deputy Prime Minister Novak, also pledged to extend its 300k bpd cuts until the end of December, and will review the measure on a monthly basis. UKOil traded above $90 till a few minutes ago (now $89.84) and USOil went as high as $88 at some point yesterday. This was immediately reflected firstly in US yields, which rose 6bps on the 10-year, and the USD also benefited. The phantom of inflation may not yet be vanquished with the main raw material of our energy-intensive societies rising by 30% in just over two months. Stocks have fallen: airline and cruise stocks obviously suffered but all sectors except Energy, Technology and Consumer discretionary went down. European indices also dropped as economic data for the region came in mixed. Eurozone producer prices fell 7.6% in July from a year ago. But business activity in August dropped at the steepest rate in nearly three years. Overnight the Australian GDP figure showed a slowdown compared to the previous quarter, but was less marked than expected.

Sectorial Etf Performances



*FX – USDIndex hit its highest level since 10 March, now at 104.64. USDJPY at 2023 highs, 147.08 now but traded as high as 147.815. USDCNH slides to 7.31 but previously touched 7.325. EURUSD -0.61% at 1.0737 now close to critical levels, GBPUSD at 1.2581 with its price clearly below a trendline.
*Stocks – Flattish Chinese indices, JPN225 +0.77% at 33227, AUS200 -0.75%. US Futures all aligned at -0.07% right now, EU Futures -0.2%/-0.3%. Yesterday Materials -1.85%, Industrials -1.68%, Utilities -1.22%.
*Commodities – USOil touched $88.05, trading at $86.50 right now; UKOil rose as high as $91.12 now at $89.83.
*Gold – pressured again, -0.56% yesterday now flat at $1926. XAG dropped -1.67%, further down -0.33% at $23.45 now.

LATER TODAY: Germany Factory Orders, EU Retail Sales, US Trade Balance, PMIs, Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision, Fed Beige Book.



INTERESTING MOVER: USOil added another +0.84% ($86.7) to its more than 2 month long 30% rally. Resistances at $88.5/$89 and $92.5/$93 areas, support in the $83.5/$84 area. MACD, RSI positive, Price above 50d-200d MAs that recently crossed to the upside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th September 2023.

Market Update – September 7 – Futures negative on Oil, rates rise, weak data; EU GDP ahead.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

European markets are heading for a lower open today (Thursday) with investors looking ahead to the Q2 GDP and employment change over the same period. Data continues to come in very weak from Germany where Industrial Production just showed a further decline after Factory Orders plummeted again yesterday (-11.7% m/m). This also plays a role in last night’s weak Chinese imports data, which declined again -7.3% y/y, although this was less than expected. Exports also contracted and to stay within the same region, the Australian Trade Balance deteriorated by about 2 billion in July. Yesterday the BOC left rates unchanged at 5% while the FED’s Beige Book saw an unusual abuse of the word ”recession” (used 15 times), despite it having clearly disappeared from the last corporate earnings reports.

Equity markets are weak while Rates and USD keep going higher. The Chinese have given up defending their onshore FX exchange rate (CNY) and it has broken above recent highs. Oil is unstoppable on the back of recent news and apparent supply shortage. EU GDP is expected to have been positive in Q2 (+0.3%) and also on a yearly basis (+0.6%). US Jobless claims will give us new insight into the labour market which seems to have slowed down as per last week’s data.



*FX – USDIndex +0.05% at 104.87, USDJPY touched 147.87, now -0.14% at 147.47, USDCNH 7.329, Cable – 0.07% and < 1.25, AUDUSD +0.11% @ 0.6387.
*Stocks – EU Futures -0.3% (both GER40 and FRA40), US30 -0.20%, US100 -0.34%, AAPL, NVDA >-3% yesterday.
*Commodities – USOil giving up some of the recent gains but still close to recent highs, -0.43% @ $87.18, UKOil trades @ $90.26.
*Gold – $1917,83, mainly flat. XAG leads the way, -0.47% at $23.06.

LATER TODAY: EU Q2 employment change, EU Q2 GDP, US Jobless claims, FED’s Williams, Bostic, Bowman, BOC’s Governor speech.



INTERESTING MOVER: GBPUSD (-0.26% this morning @ 1.2475) remains heavier than other peers, has broken recent lows and is heading toward 1.2440 support, 200MA at 1.2430, weak RSI, Negative MACD.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 8th September 2023.

Market Update – September 8 – Japanese & EU GDP miss, CNH breaks 2023 lows.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asia-Pacific markets were lower on Friday as Japan released revised second quarter gross domestic product figures (+1.2% vs +1.3% expected, down from 1.5%) and Hong Kong cancelled the morning trading session due to a storm warning. Overnight the US100 fell for a 4th session, weighed by Apple after a report that China is allegedly banning government workers from using iPhones; NVDA, AMD, Qualcomm slipped as well. US30 managed to edge up 0.17% as defensive sectors outperformed (Utilities the best one). Initial Jobless claims fell to 216k last week, below estimates and hinting to a still tight job market after last week’s streak of data. Unit labor costs rose 2.2% (1.9%). A ”positive” note came from Walmart that announced it is lowering its workers entry pay. EU GDP and employment change in Q2 disappointed yesterday and EU stocks are down for the 7th day in a row. German CPI/HICP is just out, in line (CPI +6.1% y/y).

This morning a poll of 69 economists interviewed by Bloomberg showed that the majority of them (39) are seeing an ECB pause in September, with some odds (33) of a new hike by the end of the year. Finally, USDCNH is trading at 7.3528 and has broken 2023 highs the day after CNY did so, showing the Chinese authorities are giving up protecting the 7.30 barrier.



*FX – USDIndex -0.20% at 104.82 retreated back below 105, EURUSD sits in the low 1.07s, Cable lingers below 1.25 and USDJPY trades on a 147 handle (147.15).
*Stocks – EU Futures +0.3% (both GER40 and FRA40), US30 +0.14%, US100 +0.31%, AAPL – 2.92%, AMD -2.46%, Qualcomm – 7.22%.
*Commodities – USOil -0.36% at $86.43, UKOil loses $90, $89.59 now. Strikes began at Australian Chevron LNG plants.
*Gold – +0.38% at $1926.80, XAG +0.82% at $23.15, Palladium +1.15% at $1228 is trying to rebound from 2023 lows.

LATER TODAY: Canadian Unemployment Rate, Fed’s Bostic & Barr.



INTERESTING MOVER: Apple -2.92% at $177.56 is down -6.54% in 2 sessions on heavy volumes after US-China tech-related tensions arose again. It managed to recover the $176 level after opening at 175.18 and hitting a low at $173.54. The MACD is neutral and RSI slightly below 50. Price is between the MM50 ($186.50) and MM200 ($164).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 11th September 2023.

Market Update – September 11 – BOJ & PBOC Caused Turmoil.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

G20 wraps up, while in Asia central banks have shaken the markets this morning. Verbal intervention from Japan and China helped to bolster Yuan and Yen and saw the DXY dollar index correcting to 104.637, from a close of 105.09 on Friday. Treasuries fell slightly across tenors Monday as traders await US inflation due later this week. Stock markets had a mixed start to the week, while bonds corrected, as most equity indexes found buyers. This turned USDJPY around, with Yen rallies with Yields after BOJ Ueda comments on negative rates fuelled rate hike speculations. USDCNH collapsed just before hitting last year’s highs – Yuan off 16-year lows after PBoC sets strong reference rate and threatens to punish market disruption.



*FX – USDIndex correcting to 104.45, from a close of 105.09 on Friday, EURUSD turned higher to 1.0730 from 1.0683 lows last week, GBPUSD broke 20-day SMA and still holds above it at 1.2526. Against the weaker US Dollar, the Aussie and the Kiwi were among the biggest beneficiaries, each rising close to 1% to hit roughly one-week highs.
*Stocks – JPN225 correcting -0.4% and the Hang Seng losing more than 1%, the latter in catch up trade, after markets were closed on Friday due to adverse weather conditions. The CSI 300 managed to lift 0.7%, the ASX 0.5%, and futures are higher in Europe and the US.
*Commodities – USOil dips shortlived after technical rally, however it remains above the key $84 level, extending gains above 11-month resistance. Currently settled at $86.56. Gold retests $1930 once again.

TODAY: The European Commission is to release its summer interim economic forecast. The central bank’s chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Kent Invicta Chamber of Commerce.



Key Movers: USDJPY drifted (-1.18%) after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that there may be sufficient information by year-end to judge if wages will continue to rise, which is a key factor in deciding whether to pare back its super-easy policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 12 September 2023.

Market Update – September 12 – Greenback rebounds ahead of US Inflation.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Wall Street closed slightly higher amid strength in big tech. Tesla climbed 10% after Morgan Stanley boosted its outlook on the stock based on expectations on the impacts of the “Dojo” computer. Treasuries posted small losses amid a lack of buyers. Bloomberg suggested it was the smallest range on the 10-year in over 2 years. The 10-year was up 2.5 bps to 4.295%. It was generally contained by the 4.30% level as well as the 4.34% cycle peak from August 21, the highest since late 2007. Today, European futures are higher, US futures slightly lower, as markets wait for US inflation numbers.



This morning: UK wage growth higher than expected – a bit of a negative surprise for the BoE. The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged, jobless claims nudged up 0.9K in the more up to date August report and the July reading was revised down. Mixed signals for the BoE about the overall situation in the labour market, but it seems payroll growth is slowing, which ties in with survey data from the PMI reports. Despite this, wage growth remains uncomfortably higher and the data would back at least one more rate hike from the BoE this month. BoE’s Mann warns against early end to tightening cycle.

*FX – USDIndex lost a little ground, albeit after 8 straight weeks of gains, currently at its lows at 104.63 from 104.37. EURUSD drifted to 1.0725 from 1.0768 and GBPUSD higher after the data at 1.2529. USDJPY higher at 146.85 but Yen holds yesterday’s gains.
*Stocks – The US100 rallied 1.14% on the back of a surge in big tech. The US500 was 0.67% and the US30 was 0.25% firmer. JPN225 also jumped nearly 1%, but elsewhere across Asia the move higher was muted and China bourses traded narrowly mixed, with the CSI 300 down -0.1% and the Hang Seng rising a mere 0.1%. European futures are higher.
*Disney and Charter gained. Both stocks climbed after reports of a deal to restore channels including ESPN and ABC to the cable operator’s subscribers. Warner Bros. Discovery also rose.
*Nvidia fell. The chipmaker edged lower, extending a rocky September. Advanced Micro Devices also declined. J.M. Smucker shares fell after the snack giant agreed to buy Twinkies owner Hostess.
*Commodities – USOil higher as attention shifts to outlooks from OPEC & US.
*Bitcoin rose after dropping to the lowest since June on Monday

TODAY: The Apple product event, German ZEW Economic Sentiment. OPEC and US EIA will both publish monthly market reports later.



Key Movers: BTCUSD rallied by +2.77% today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 13th September 2023.

Market Update – September 13 – Stocks retreat as markets wait for CPI.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Wall Street succumbed to further profit taking as concerns over tech weighed. This morning, stock markets headed south across Asia, as markets wait for the key US CPI numbers due to be released today. The USDindex tumbled into the close with the index sliding to 104.573 from the day’s high of 104.918 after a Reuters report said the ECB saw inflation holding over 3% in 2024. European and US futures are in the red and yields are moving higher with Eurozone markets underperforming after the Reuters source story.



Today so far: UK GDP contracted -0.5% m/m in July, more than expected and wiping out the 0.5% gain in the previous month. The three month trend rate remained steady at 0.2%. Industrial production contracted -0.7% m/m, services fell -0.5% m/m and construction output declined -0.5% m/m. The visible trade deficit narrowed somewhat, but that will also be due to lower energy prices. Wet weather and strikes are partly to blame, but the numbers also tie in with weaker survey numbers and a wider weakness in activity, with the UK economy set to move essentially sideways over the next quarter, after what was a quicker bounce back from the pandemic than initially reported. For the BoE that means further hikes after the likely move this month seem increasingly less likely.

*FX – USDIndex at 104.742, up from a session low of 104.515. EURUSD dipped to 1.0730 from 1.0764 and GBPUSD retested its 1.2440 low. USDJPY higher at 147.30.
*Stocks – The US100 led the declines with a -1.04% drop, while the US500 fell -0.57% and the US30 slipped -0.04%. A lot of the weakness stemmed from Apple and Oracle with the former hit by more fallout from China’s restrictions on iPhones, while the latter suffered from a poor earnings report. Apple’s iPhone 15 launch did not provide much support.
*Commodities – Oil prices have remained supported ahead of the CPI report and on forecasts by OPEC and the US that output cuts will tighten the market in the months ahead. USOIL is at $88.50.
*Gold has corrected to $1908 as the USDIndex has nudged up from early lows and is starting to eye the 105 mark again, which is keeping a lid on the precious metal, although gold is still up more than 12.5% over the year.



Key Movers: AUDUSD (H1 chart) in a 3-day downchannel with key Resistance intraday at 0.6410 and 0.6420.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 16th September 2023.

Events to Look Out For Next Week.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Next week will be one marked by multiple decisions by the world’s major Central Banks, the Fed in the first place. PMI data will then give colour to the expected strength of the economy in the coming months, while we will continue to keep our eyes firmly on prices, after the impromptu rise we saw in the US, for example.

Tuesday – 19 September 2023

->Harmonized / Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Next week will be one marked by multiple decisions by the world’s major Central Banks, the Fed in the first place. PMI data will then give colour to the expected strength of the economy in the coming months, while we will continue to keep our eyes firmly on prices, after the impromptu rise we saw in the US, for example.
->Canadian CPI (CAD, GMT 12.30) – Inflation in Canada is at similar levels to the US, even lower: 3.2% and 3.3% in July on the headline and core components respectively. But the former has risen again in the latest report, and consistently from +2.8% in June: will it follow in its neighbour’s footsteps and mark a second consecutive rise? Expectations are for a +3.8% rise in the headline component.

Wednesday – 20 September 2023

->PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNH, GMT 01:15) – China’s central bank has been very active this year in trying to stimulate the economy with various instruments and has already tweaked various interest rates and margins requirements from banks several times: in August the key one-year loan prime rate was lowered from 3.55% to 3.45% where it now stands. It remains to be seen whether the bank will take a break after the latest vaguely positive data.
->UK CPI, PPI, Retail Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) –Prices in the UK continue to grow at the highest levels among advanced economies: in July y/y CPI was +6.8%, Core CPI +6.9%, Retail Prices +9%. The economy seems to be languishing in stagflation but this is not what policy makers would like to see, as they expect to see numbers close to 5% by the end of the year. Expectations are for a rise of the headline component to +7.1% and a slowdown in the core one, to +6.8%, while RPI is forecasted at +9.3% y/y.
->FED Interest Rated Decision and FOMC Press Conference (USD, from GMT 10:00) -Little drama is expected out of next week’s FOMC. The official rate is in the 5.25% – 5.50% range and the market continues to price in very little risk for a hike next week. Chances for a 25 bp rate hike in November are still on the cards amid sticky core inflation and a still tight labor market. Very important will be subsequent comments from the ever-balanced Jerome Powell, who will perhaps explain the bank’s view on prices that have been rising again over the past two months while growth and jobs seem to be holding strong.

Thursday – 21 September 2023

->SNB Interest Rated Decision and Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF, GMT 07:30) –Earlier this month, economists at Credit Suisse/UBS were saying the SNB could raise the current 1.75% level even in the event that the neighboring ECB paused, citing the usual price fight but also the interest rate differential with the eurozone. Instead, Madame Lagarde raised and even though Inflation is actually below 2%, the Swiss bank’s projections suggest caution and that a 25 bps hike could be in the cards.
->BOE Interest Rate Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Summary (GBP, GMT 11:00) –SONIA futures data seem to take it for granted that the BOE will raise at this meeting from the current 5.25% to 5.50%: but most important will be to understand the internal divisions and alternatives on the bench for the bank that is perhaps facing the most difficult situation, with a stagnant economy and prices running hot. Economists polled by Reuters think 2 members will vote for keeping the rate unchanged, up from just 1 at the last meeting.
->US Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 12:30, 14:00) –The US labor market has shown that it is still very tight despite some slowdown that was most noticeable in the ADP data and the pickup in the unemployment rate (+3.8% in August from +3.5%), actually due to a rise in the Labor Force Participation Rate. This week, it is expected that Initial Claims will rise by just 5k to +225k. While mortgage demand has sunk to a 28-year low given the high rates, existing home sales are also suffering (+4070k in July down from +4160k in June) in contrast to new home sales, which continue to climb (+714k). Two more data points to see how strong the US locomotive is. Expectations are for 4100k Existing Home Sales.

Friday – 22 September 2023

->BOJ Interest Rated Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (JPY , GMT early morning time, not disclosed) –Yen weakness, a still negative official rate (-0.1%), recent changes to the YCC on the 10-year, Ueda statements, prices and wages that finally seem to be rising consistently toward the bank’s target bring into question whether or not the process of monetary policy normalization from an ultra loose stance has really begun. With the USDJPY in the 148 area, an event definitely not to be missed. No changes are expected for the Official Interest Rate.
->French, German, European HCOB PMIs, UK S&P/CIPS PMIs (EUR, GBP, starting GMT 07:15) – Yen weakness, a still negative official rate (-0.1%), recent changes to the YCC on the 10-year, Ueda statements, prices and wages that finally seem to be rising consistently toward the bank’s target bring into question whether or not the process of monetary policy normalization from an ultra loose stance has really begun. With the USDJPY in the 148 area, an event definitely not to be missed. No changes are expected for the Official Interest Rate.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th September 2023.

Market Update – September 18 – Central Banks Week kicks off.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A week that will be marked by meetings and decisions of practically all the world’s most important central banks is off to a slow start, with US futures fractionally up (+0.08% / +0.15%) after Friday’s drubbing. It was a decisive day for the weekly trend, sending both the US500 and US100 into negative territory for the second time in a row: only the US30 managed to close the week at +0.1%. The tech sector was the hardest hit, -2.2%, led by the Oracle debacle, -10%. On the other front, Utilities outperformed, +2.8%. This was on Friday, when the Nasdaq sank -1.75% and the US500 posted -1.22%: two factors contributed to this bad performance. First, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came out at 67.7, below expectations and well below its historical average, which is close to 86. This Index accounts for 2/3 of the US economy and is therefore a valuable indicator of the overall state of affairs there. The other major event that certainly helped the declines to be heavy was the UAW strike, for the first time simultaneously at the Ford, GM and Stellantis plants: the demands are for wage increases of up to 40% and the impact of such news on the perception of future inflation can be worrying. Today is poor in data, but from tonight Central Banks Week kicks off with the minutes of the latest RBA meeting and from Wednesday night onwards all the big central banks will cascade. The FED decision will be made on Wednesday evening.

Since the 3rd week of August, Antipodeans + CNH have relatively outperformed


*FX – USDIndex -0.12% at 104.86; Antipodeans are relatively stronger with AUDUSD +0.23% and NZDUSD +0.31%, this comes also on the back of USDCNH <7.30 (7.28 now). GBPUSD sits at 1.24, EURUSD +0.13% at 1.0673.
*Stocks – US Futures fractionally higher (US500 + 0.15%, US100 +0.22%, US30 +0.12%); GER40 futures are turning negative right now (-0.03% at 15869), CAC is -0.05%. Last Friday, META and NVDA sunk >-3%, Microsoft -2.50%.
*Commodities – USOil is trading close to 10-month high at $91.60, UKOil puts $95 in sight.
*GOLD – +0.32% at $1929, XAG +0.73% at $23.20.

Today: highlights include US NAHB Housing Market Index, Bundesbank Monthly Report, remarks from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, ECB de Guindos & Panetta.



Key Movers: XAUUSD (+0.22% @ $1928.09) is in a very tight range between its 50d and 200d MAs and close to the upper bound of a descending channel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

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