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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2018 The euro rallied at the beginning of the Tuesday session and reach up to 1.1750 prior to retreating back at 1.700 below, which were the trades began for the day. We can expect noise to be present in the pair considering that there are Brexit negotiations and a strong dollar. Yet, looking at the charts, clearly, it shows that the true resistance would be above 1.1850 while the floor of the pair can be found at 1.15 below.
Given the high frequency in trading, there is a huge amount of volatility in the EUR/USD pair. At the end of the day, the 1.17 level offers support which is a good indicator or further goes up on Wednesday. Also, the 1.1675 level offers support where there is also a high demand. I assume that the market will look for value on dips, especially for hunters. Yet, traders should still be careful in putting money at stakes. Hence, I would suggest to trade slowly and then gradually add more to reach new fresh highs.
In general, the pair could stay long in consolidation range which should be considered given that there will be a lot of noise and headlines could influence the pair for sudden movements.
Edited by user
2018-07-18T08:32:28Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 19, 2018 The euro against the U.S. dollar is traded slightly in the area of 1.1650 but profits can be gained during the European session. The uptrend took place in the early hours of Asian market session due to recent bullish trend across the globe booking profits on the dollar. Yet, the outlook of the greenback is still optimistic because of hawkish rhetorics from the U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell, which would probably affect the European and American session. Stocks on major world market reached a one-month high on Wednesday after strong corporate earnings. Meanwhile, the U.S. surpassed the levels on a three-week high against major currencies with more bidding involving the dollar. Yet, the profit booking activity slowed down the momentum of the dollar for a while. According to Powell, the United States would go for a steady growth in the course of trading and held back risks of the U.S. economy on worsening trade conflict.
The dollar index grew towards 95.4, reaching a three-week high against other currencies and then settled in the area of 95.08 with an increase of 0.2%. Two more rate hikes are anticipated this year from the Federal Reserve in reaction to rising inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the ECB is presumed to raise their rates only in the middle of next year. The eurozone grew for the first time last year since the financial crisis between 2007 and 2008. Yet, the most recent survey of 100 economists results showed growth momentum has already reached the highest point. Nonetheless, the worsening trade war between the U.S. and their trading partners still presents real risks to the eurozone and influenced economists to lessen their growth forecast.
Edited by user
2018-07-19T09:53:15Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 20, 2018 The single European currency had broken down amid trading course on Thursday while a lot of negativity continue to be in this market. Forecasts say that the market would likely continue to be volatile but the market is determined to move lower near the 1.15 region, an area which has been a significant support in the past and a little bit of buying pressure can be seen in this zone. While the current point of at issue is whether or not traders can break down beneath that level. A successful break down will be a great destruction for the Euro.
Otherwise, a rally from that level and regain the 1.16 zone has a high probability to happen. In that case, we could determine a move on top of the 1.1660 region followed by a potential rally. We can see the overall consolidation below the 1.15 area, which serves as the floor and 1.1850 above as the ceiling of consolidation where we are currently fixed.
It looks like that we will be stuck in this range for the next couple of days or weeks since it's already mid-summer and there many large traders from all over the world who are out of their offices. Aside from that, there are also varying issues regarding the Brexit which causes trading quite noisy and difficult for the EUR/USD currency pair.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 23, 2018 The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar trades a bit higher during the Monday session. A bit of a reaction was observed as the dollar weakened due to the added pressure on the Trump’s remarks to the Fed policy and his struggle with the strengthening of the greenback.
Investors reaction to Trump’s rhetorics lead to the tight trading of the pair against the different monetary policy between the hawkish Fed and a dovish central bank of Australia that makes the dollar appealing for investment to traders alike.
Also, traders are hesitant about their positioning prior to the weekly quarterly consumer inflation data of Australian and increasing Treasury yields from the U.S.
The major trend has decline based on the daily swing chart. The trend will move up on trades towards .7443 and if it further reaches the level of .7318, the downtrend is likely to continue.
Short-term trading of the pair will be between .7310 and .7484 with 50% pivot level at .7397. It seems that pair is being traded strongly at this level that could assist an early uptrend tendency. Traders should act on it to counter the support level on the first test today. However, if it fails to hold this level, the price could weaken with the main range at .7677 to .7310. If the trend goes up, then we can expect the retracement zone to be at .7494 to .7537 which will become the primary target in the upside.
On a technical aspect, the AUD/USD pair will be based on the reaction of the pair for short-term trading at .7434.
Edited by user
2018-07-23T09:08:24Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 24, 2018 Once again, the U.S. dollar dropped against the Japanese yen in day trading on Monday session. There was sufficient support found on the trendline and crossed below the level of 111 yen. It seems that the market is attempting to recover from here. Thus, a short-term bounce might still be far from happening. Predominant selling activity is due to the currency war but, nonetheless, hunters will still find this appealing to reverse the situation.
As shown on the chart, the price plunged to the uptrend line with intention to bounce up. This can actually be considered as a perfect test of the uptrend line and it looks like value hunters are will attempt to join the market now. A rebound can be bought but there will still be some noise around regardless of what happens next in the days to come. Hence, it is ideal to trade in smaller trade. Although there is sufficient amount of demand below, a lot of noise is present above. In long-term trades, there is a tendency of the pair to move because of the risk appetite. Therefore, in case that trade tension mitigates, the market might turn around.
On the other hand, if the market breaks lower than the uptrend line, the next target of the market will be the level of 110, which can serve as a support. Hence, it is likely for a correction to happen given the oversold condition of the pair, at least the in the next few trading sessions. Assessing the trend as a whole, there are higher risks on the upper channel than below but with high volatility around, traders should still be careful in trading this market.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 25, 2018 The sterling pound moved sideways amid trading session yesterday, with an exception for a slight reversal and bullish pressure. As of this writing, the ¥146 level above was unable to break. While the previous ascending trend line was broken through which stimulate a little bit of resistance. In case of a slice above the ¥147 region will prove the strength of the recovery. On the contrary, we can expect for a lot of sideways action in the near term.
There are forecasts that the area under the ¥145 will be supportive which would likely require some pressure to cut through that region. Generally, the market will contain plenty of noise with a slightly downward proclivity as to the concerns about trade battles and the like.
It should be noted that the GBP/JPY currency pair is very sensitive to global risk appetite alongside the added issue of political chaos in Great Britain, which slightly puts off this market downwards. The presence of some reversal is very difficult to deal with but if we reach higher than the ¥147 level, then new profits will pour in the trading place and would accelerate further. While a break down underneath the ¥145 level would probably open a way through the ¥142.50 region.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 26, 2018 The British currency drove higher amid trading course yesterday and attempt to grind above the 1.32 level. Generally, we can expect for the resumption of short-term pullbacks which may act as buying opportunities with a slower motion. In this case, shorting this market is not recommended due to the recent formation of some “basing pattern”. Also, there is a possibility of a move through the 1.32 region or 1.3250 eventually.
Traders should take note about the headlines which could possibly trigger issues with the sterling pound aside from the conflict between the Conservative Party and Theresa May, which argues for the common ground of the Brexit. Forecasts show that the market will begin searching for the level below 1.30 as the “absolute floor” of the GBP, hence, longer-term traders will buy the dips based on its value.
For some time, the pound became quite oversold and the “buy-and-hold” traders in the longer-term will return to the market to acquire benefits from lower prices. Ultimately, the dips can be seen turning around with impulsive trends and the top of 1.33 handle would likely be broken but may require a series of attempt to overcome that level.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2018 The British currency had initially rallied yesterday but the 1.32 region appears to be slightly expensive. Moreover, the level around 1.3150 would likely have a lot of support underneath. It may take some time prior the buyers to return and push this market higher. Upon clearing the 1.32 zone, it is possible to trail through the 1.3250 area. This market appears to be bullish in general, however, the political issues with Great Britain may cause problems for the sterling pound. In the longer-term, there will be some resolution to the political theater which could help to resume an upward trend.
According to forecasts, the level below 1.30 is massively supportive since the figure is characterized as large, round, and psychologically significant. As expected, the weekly charts showed that it rebounded, indicating a higher possibility of buying pressure in that region. That area could be the “floor” of this market and considered as the most appropriate zone to begin purchases if there is any intention to move back there.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 31, 2018 The single European currency paired with the US dollar and reach higher than the 1.17 region. But, we can see plenty of supply above that level which makes it interesting to break on top of the 1.1730 handle. With that, it indicates a move through the area of 1.1750 but it is hard to break higher until the release of news from the central banks as well as employment figures this week. It is believed that the market will extend to the upside while players search for some short-term selling opportunity in the past.
Aside from that, the market was in a symmetrical triangle and the jobs figure could possibly break out that triangle and we expect a longer-term trade play on Friday. Apparently, the entire scenario might change because of geopolitical issue or some kind of news, however, the market would likely continue to be noisy in the near term while it will be difficult to stay in the longer-term condition. A break above the 1.1750 zone will push the market on top of the 1.1850 region, which is the highest point of the overall consolidation in the longer term.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2018 The sterling pound rallied throughout the day on Tuesday until the American hours, because the British currency takes advantage of the rally ahead which is expected to be an increase in the rate. Forecasts show that the market will resume to be very noisy or continue the “buy the rumor, sell the news.” The level 1.32 would likely be resistive as well as the area of 1.33.
Meanwhile, short-term pullbacks have high chance to happen and in case that the Bank of England will not lift its rates tomorrow, then we can expect for a decline. Generally, the market establishes some kind of “floor” around the 1.30 zone but when the BOE will do something negligent, then a lot of support can be seen.
The buyers of dips anticipate moving over the 1.35 mark in the longer-term. Nevertheless, we should clarify such scenario with the Brexit prior making that move. Indecision might prevail over this market, so traders should keep their trading positions approximately small.
A break down underneath the 1.30 zone will test the 1.29 region consequently, hence, a break down to the downside will be extremely negative. The slightly positive bias range bound system is believed to be the best way to deal with this market.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2018 The British currency had a pullback earlier amid trading course yesterday, however, the level below 1.31 seems to be supportive and rebounded within 30 pips through the American session. According to forecast, the 1.31 region will continue to have support with the involvement of the Bank of England, since such large moves are impossible with this market. Moreover, the short-term pullbacks would likely open doors for buying opportunities, but the next scenario will be determined by the statement from London. Interest rate hike is further anticipated, making the statement more attractive to the traders’ attention.
When the UK’s central bank lifted its rates in the future, the British pound will gain optimism but it seems to be some kind of “one and done” scenario and may result to some selloff. The 1.32 region above will be the resistance, but a cut through on top of that level would push a move higher.
While a gap lower than the 1.31 mark would search for a significant support around 1.30 zone. An area that is considered to be supportive in the longer term and could offer a lot of opportunities to acquire major value.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 3, 2018 At the beginning of Tuesday session, the euro dropped sharply with the support level found at 1.16, which is the bottom of the symmetrical triangle as a large round psychological number. Hereinafter, it won’t be long before the market attempts to break out of the symmetrical triangle since the jobs data will reach it. If the pair breaks the level of 1.16, the market could slide down towards 1.15 where there is an important support. Moving around, the pair breaks higher than 1.1750 that offers resistance and breakthrough on this level would push the price towards 1.1850.
It is not unexpected that the pair will move in the middle of the symmetrical triangle after the trading session with the release of jobs data. There is a lot of noise in the market amid the subdued month of August that slowed things down. It seems that there is a massive support at 1.15 and it will be a significant event for a break lower. It is likely for the price to consolidate in the next few weeks. In this case, a breakout on the symmetrical triangle will dismiss it.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: August 6, 2018 The USD/JPY currency pair trades slightly lower on Monday morning, however, the pair was able to keep its position above the Friday’s low. The market lost its entire gains after accelerating to 112.152 level and followed by the Bank of Japan’s decision on monetary policy last week.
While both monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan neutralized each other last week and much of the price activity favored safe haven purchases linked with the increasing trade battle between China and the United States.
Another factor that contributed to the weakening of the USDJPY was the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report that came mixed on Friday. The US labor growth further declined than predicted in July, but the weak jobless rate indicates that the job market conditions tighten. The traders of the dollar/yen pair continue to observe the U.S. Treasury yields as it dropped on Friday after the labor report. Also, the insufficient economic data on Monday allowed the USDJPY investors to focus on the U.S. Treasury yields and such developments with the trading relationships of the US and China.
Moreover, the expected direction of the USD/JPY for today can be identified by the trader's respond towards the 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 111.459 to 111.295 in the near term. A sustained move at 111.459 would likely create the required impetus for an upside bias, while a sustained trend below 111.295 indicates the existence of sellers.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 7, 2018 The sterling pound had a significant break down as this week started along with some current issues regarding the Brexit. However, the trend for the next day seems crucial. The level below 1.29 is massively supportive according to the longer-term charts, which serves as the bottom of the zone in FX markets. Hence, a break down under that zone will indicate a longer-term sell signal.
On the other hand, a reversal and a rebound would prompt buyers to return and pick up some value. This will further heighten some optimistic news from the United Kingdom which involves Brexit.
The next target for a break down is the 1.2750 region or the 1.25 level eventually. The GBP remains to be difficult to deal with due to a lot of concerns regarding its economy. While volatility can be reliable for the pound/dollar for some time.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 8, 2018 The U.S. dollar slid down against the Japanese yen to rise on Tuesday, although, there is a bit of noise down below 111 that could reverse the situation and appeal to buyers to jump in. Concerns on trade war continue to prevail on the market, which can be viewed as “ground zero” on the headlines. It may not take long before the traders turn around that can be influenced by the headlines going out.
Risk appetite moves along with the pair which should be always kept in mind. It is logical that the trading activity will take place in this area in the next 24 hours but if the price breaks lower than 111, there is a possibility for a break down lower than 111. There is a chance if the price moves down to 110.50 and even further to 110. Moving up, the level of 112 offers a lot of resistance and currently, a return to the recent highs may be my target but it is not necessarily a big move to the north, at least not until the trade war between China and the U.S. is settled. There is a high optimism in trading for short-term and traders should expect for choppiness and range-bound trading that is already common at this time of the year.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2018 The British currency seesawed during the trading course yesterday while testing the 1.29 region for resistance but, there is no dramatic selloff happened. As of this writing, the GBP/USD is oversold and many professional traders await for a rebound to begin selling again. While retail traders are very good in “chasing the trade” which makes them sell down from that level.
Apparently, there are a lot of problems with Brexit and because of that, people are waiting for the headlines from London especially when it has something to do with the referendum or the consensus with the UK Conservative Party.
Eventually, it seems that the pound/dollar pair would likely reach even lower but traders should not let this to happen because the pair is almost oversold. It should be noted that the level above 1.30 will serve as the resistance. Sooner or later, traders will beat up the sterling pound, however, there are scarcely any of them who are currently selling. It is suggested to move near the 1.2750 zone for the next couple of weeks, but the unity with the Conservative Party would support this market to grow.
It looks like that the weakening of the pound will nearly end because of the few people who remained short in this market and nobody wants to suffer from a rapid price decline. While selling rallies in the near-term on signs of exhaustion is expected to remain effective.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 13, 2018 The British pound was priced at 1.2750 in the early session with the support at 1.27. Currently, the pair is traded at 1.2763, dropped by 0.07% on the day, implying signs of consolidation. In the previous week, the pair returned full scale due to risk aversion as a precaution to the Turkish banking sector in the emerging market. Meanwhile, traders are moving back to the US dollar with risk flows at a full reverse while the British pound is presumed to continue with a strong bearish sentiment against the greenback after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney & Trade Secretary Liam Fox gave an indication of a no-deal Brexit possibility.
In the technical perspective, there are hints of a continuous bearish approach despite the fundamental news hinting on a bullish pullback possibility. For a third succeeding week, the pair has been on a bearish decline with no signs that could indicate downward exhaustion and technical indicators of strong downward slopes. The RSI is around 24 at the moment. On the 4-hour chart, the pair moves bearishly with the 20-SMA directed downward at 1.2865 and the momentum indicators just entered a modest upward correction. The technical levels on the resistance level will be at 1.2795, 1.2830, 1.2865 and the support level will be at 1.2720, 1.2680, 1.2645.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 14, 2018 The trepidation of European banks has pushed the euro down over the past two days. Some reports reveal that a pastor has been detained in Turkey that could appease the tension between Turkey and the United States. Consequently, this pushed the Turkish lira and eased the pressure and fear in European banks. In these considerations, a resumption higher is likely to take place. Thus, there are technicals that should be monitored such as the level of 1.1475 which was an important supply level previously. Of course, there is the level of 1.15 and beyond that. Needless to say, there is a bit sign of pause and any signs of a problem could cause a rollover of the pair.
One concern is the little information about the Turkish economy that puts them in the spotlight globally. Hence, the market is likely to be anxious, siding on a safe side over anything else. If the price breaks above the level of 1.154, the price will probably continue to rally substantially. Later on, a short-term rally could be reversed with the choice of wrong words.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 15, 2018 The American currency attempted to rally amid trading session on Tuesday, however, the level above ¥111 appears to be very resistive to resume an upward movement. And this does not surprise the market at all since this area had some previous selling. At this moment, the market would likely find enough reason to respond to the current situation of Turkey.
Aside from that, another issue to worry about is the global trade conflicts which involve the United States and China. Eventually, finding a resolution to the current situation will enable the interest rate outlook and interest rate differential of both countries to engage actively in the market. With this, the main focus should be on trade when it comes to the USD/JPY currency pair but when factors involving the USD will ease, there would be a resumption of support. As the market would likely continue to favor this scenario due to increased US interest rates against the difficult status of the Bank of Japan for not being able to imply rate hikes in the future. The ¥110.25 level provides an initial target to the upside, followed by a move towards ¥112 level. A break down from that point, the level below ¥110 should be supported.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 16, 2018
The single European currency slightly edged lower amid trading course on Wednesday, and move lower to the significant level 1.13. It is possible to gain a bit of rebound from that area. Also, some type of selling opportunity is expected to see on rallies and shorting this market will show signs of exhaustion. A lot of concerns remain towards Turkey’s contagion to the EU, which would likely be seen as there is a shortage of US currency around the world.
As expected, the euro was beaten recently which demonstrates occasional value play and look to pick up dips. Traders should wait for a shooting star pattern on the hourly chart and the level above the 1.15 region is the “ceiling” of the market. Moreover, a significant break on top of that zone may consider purchasing this market as shown in the daily chart.
A downward movement can be anticipated in the near future. Based on some technical analysts, the market may reach as low as 1.05 at the end of 2018. The next potential target is 1.13.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 17, 2018 The sterling pound attempted to rally yesterday but had some struggle at the 1.2735 level, an area that reaches up to 1.2750 and considered a major support zone in the longer-term charts. Failure to break above that level indicates a short-term rebound that will engage traders to join. The market uses the 1.27 region as a minor support for the daytime trading but it has low chance to change the general forecast for this market in general. The target is at the area of 1.25 which is regarded as a psychologically significant figure.
A break down beneath the 1.25 zone would likely offer an opportunity to sell or give up the sell-off period. It is believed that most of the Brexit selling had already been taken into account but we should expect for some downward pressure. Nevertheless, an extensive flat can be seen and the further scenario will begin when people would realize that the UK will separate from the EU to have its own empire.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 22, 2018 The single European currency had rallied amid Asian trading yesterday and further break above the significant level 1.15. Nevertheless, the gains were only temporary followed by a pull back to test the region along with the onset of American hours. Moreover, this seems to be a completely impossible breakout which may lead to the thought that Turkey is still the concern of most traders.
It remains a question whether the hammer formation in the previous week indicates a technical rebound or value hunting. It seems hard to answer for now but we consider it more of a technical correction. There is a potential area that extends towards the 1.1550 region, which could open doors to reach the upside effortlessly and touching that zone will make an impressive situation.
As expected, headlines will move the market but traders should keep an eye to the American dollar as it tries to gain strength since the New York will begin the day. With this, the US dollar will certainly strengthen against the EUR/USD pair. While market players remain concerned about the current status of the European Union since the issue continues to linger in the traders’ minds. Take note of the headlines from Turkey because as their news worsens, it would greatly affect the Euro.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 23, 2018 The euro rose higher during the Wednesday session but it may be difficult to reach the level of 1.16. This level may appeal to some value hunters especially close to the level of 1.1570 and the area of 1.15 to be psychologically important. Overall, the market will still worry about the Turkish problem but may be excessively inflated. At the same time, media may overplay the situation given the possibility to repeat another great recession which will quickly attract headlines attention.
The level of 1.15 is significant as of the moment and if the market can hold this level, there is a chance for the price to rise higher. However, if the opposite happens and turns out negatively, it may wise to begin selling the pair. In this case, it would be best to be optimistic but still heedful until the level of 1.1850, which was previously the trading level at the top of the consolidation range. Noise should be anticipated but keeping in mind that other high-frequency trading algorithms in the market.
Edited by user
2018-08-24T07:43:13Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 24, 2018 The sterling pound prevails over the market on Thursday, while the trading seems difficult because the 1.29 region became slightly resistive. The price action amid the day only emphasized the current volatility that the GBP/USD pair has. In general, the British currency would likely be a huge investment in the longer-term but the nearing end of the Brexit caused further confusion than clarity. Nevertheless, there are rumors that the longer-term profit will begin to jump into the GBP or even try to win over the optimistic news.
This market could probably decline to the 1.2750 region prior seeing some major support. We can see some type of support at the 1.2825 zone but it may take some time before testing such levels. There are forecasts that the sterling could possibly break out to the upside upon gaining some clarity. However, considering the current scenario, it is recommended to deal with some volatility and choppiness.
Traders should not also forget to pay attention to the current and overall status of the US dollar because this is highly expected to reflect on this market. As of this moment, the majority are concerned with global trade which placed some demand in American currency.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 28, 2018 The sterling pound had a significant rally earlier this week. It further breaks above the 1.2850 region and would probably test the 1.29 zone. A move higher near the 1.30 mark is possible but it might be very choppy throughout the process. Buying in the dips can be reliable except when negative factors or general headlines were released from the UK. It seems that the British currency is undervalued by which different kinds of investment will attempt to arrange a deal with the European Union.
Upon having an arrangement, the pound will breakout in value because we can find some certainty in the market. Continuing to buy the dips is not ruled out yet and the 1.2750 mark is expected to the “floor” in the market but it might reverse the whole thing eventually. Market players should anticipate volatile sessions as large money flows in an out. At this moment, there is a higher risk to the move upside rather than down. Moreover, traders might need to deal with occasional pull back and negativity in the market.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 29, 2018 The single European currency broke on top of the 1.17 mark which indicates being active again. It seems that the overall market sentiment will keep on improving, which would likely support the euro or negatively affect the US currency because traders are expected to overcome the risk appetite curve to other markets and currencies.
The current situation shows the possible testing of the previous highs at the zone 1.18 that serves as the ceiling of the consolidation. A break above that region will pave the way towards a higher level, as the initial target highlighted the 1.20 level.
In case that players will pull back, plenty of support levels below are predicted to keep this market buoyed. We can find support at the levels 1.1650, 1.16 and 1.15, which is expected to be the “floor” of the market. It is suggested to continue buying the dips to play with this market, while traders may become more assertive above the 1.20 region.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 30, 2018 The sterling pound moved back and forth in the past few days and it is expected that the situation will remain unchanged, as the Brexit will continue to bring uncertainty to the British pound. Nevertheless, there is plenty of support in the past and it is predicted to keep going since there are only a few traders who opt to sell the British currency.
In the next couple of months, the Brexit agreement will be finalized which means that we’ll be seeing some certainty. With this, there are more players who would want to buy the pound. Moreover, the “smart-money” would likely get into the GBP to help the money on work since there is a lot of value in the longer-term charts.
As of this writing, the 1.28 region is projected to provide support with the possibility to go even lower. While the 1.2750 region appears to be more supportive and it may take some time before buyers return the market. The major target for resistance is the 1.30 region, which appears really attractive to traders. Considering the entire scenario, we need some optimistic news about the global commerce, about the United Kingdom or anything that could help push the market upwards to drive away traders from the greenbacks.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 31, 2018
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 4, 2018 The sterling pound breaks lower amid trading course on Monday as the week started, and showed further concern about the Brexit’s progress. Such headlines will keep moving this market immoderately and a break down under the 1.2850 region will push the British currency towards 1.28 zone eventually, which was a very supportive level in the past. Below that zone is the 1.2750 mark which is a crucial area in the longer-term charts.
It is expected that the market will have a reversal and indicate signs of support which will open doors to pick up value since the pound was oversold for a long period of time. Nevertheless, we need some optimistic news as the Brexit continue to drive this market higher. Ultimately, we can find some resolution but at this moment, we might encounter a lot of repulsive volatility brought by such news.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 5, 2018 The single European currency had broken down during Tuesday’s trading course and will further move downwards near the 1.1550 zone. However, there are speculations about the possible skepticism that might influence this market, so traders should be careful when they opt to put a lot of money to work. A break down under the 1.15 region would likely impose aggressiveness and on the other side, we can experience volatility.
Market participants should focus on the greenbacks in general, as well as issues from all over the globe. As long as there are issues that fear out the public, the favor will still be on the American currency. The US dollar will continue to edge higher and the value of the euro will be drag lower, and such events that are driven by news should be focused for now.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 6, 2018 The British currency has broken to the upside in response to the statement from Germany and the United Kingdom about their weakening stance towards hardline issues of Brexit. With this, we can expect that Brexit will happen sooner or later. Nevertheless, this move was seen last week and players should be very cautious in getting into this market. Hence, there are a lot of retail traders who would likely bet their full account for this move. Unfortunately, they will be extremely be mistaken about this, because prior to any confirmation, it is possible that a statement will be issued to reverse this downwards.
On the other hand, there is a potential change in the trend of the sterling pound that has high possibility to come upon breaking above the descending trendline around 1.3033 region. This could be a tricky candle to use in trading and the best possible way to trade this is by purchasing short-term dips.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 7, 2018 The sterling pound slightly rallied amid the day on Thursday, however, it reverted as the Americans came into play. It seems that the markets know how to take a lot of risks since the jobs figure would likely break this market. Aside from that, the issue of softening stance between the Germans and the British regarding the talks has been turned down by the Germans. The market closed at the same level of the gap and it appears to provide resistance earlier this week. Eventually, there is possible for a downwards movement in the near term but we can see a significant support around the 1.29 region. Moreover, there are also forecasts that states the potential significant amount of uncertainty in the market. With this, the market may edged lower just like what happened in the previous week.
Edited by user
2018-09-07T09:18:34Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 10, 2018 The pound/dollar remained unchanged above the level of 1.2900 as the Cable pair broke up around the technical handle since last week and stimulate hope for the approval of Brexit deal would likely oppose Monday’s GDP outlook for the British economy. Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier plans to get a new order from the EU leaders in Brussels, and this move indicates that the European Union will deal with Britain amid the major issues and despite the delayed negotiation process.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 11, 2018 Yesterday, the euro rallied, reaching the level of 1.16 in the US session. Hereinafter, we can find a drive for this pair to rise higher. There is a chance for the pair to move towards the level of 1.1650 and then to 1.17. We should also take into consideration that there are other contributing factors and the greenback could climb higher which will turn around this pair.
Although, the level of 1.15 seems a very strong support and it is likely for this level to be sustained for a while. Hence, it is suggested to buy the pair on dips and we can expect for “risk on” trading for this pair in short-term. It is also a positive thing for commodities since the greenback has a large influence on it. The market is attempting to take a hold on this pair that could result in a lot of choppiness especially since there is a lot of traders returning from the holidays. Yet, there is a chance for the buyers to come in strong.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 12, 2018 The British pound had a lot of noise during the Tuesday session. It broke higher than the trend line which is a positive thing but any statement from EU would put it to stop. The trading strategy continues as EU official is saying for the British to be careful not to overstep prior to the Irish official stating that it would only won’t be too long. Meanwhile, the currency market is getting a mixed reaction while the media influence the rationale on this aspect.
It seems that there is a chance for a breakout but we must remain patient. Hence, I think that we can find a lot of value in buying on dips given the past low price and in case some form of resolution, this would be good for the pair. Other than that, if we reach a fresh new high, this would drive the pair. Nonetheless, at this point, no deal would also still bring uncertainty to the pair and some value hunters will probably enter later on. I may not look for selling the pair given the situation but opportunities may open to purchase the pair in pullbacks.
Edited by user
2018-09-12T09:43:11Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2018 A lot of noise exhibited in yesterday’s session of the EUR/USD pair and bounced around the level of 1.16. Hereinafter, trading activity will mainly depend on the US dollar. Traders should look out for the new to be released from the European Union as this would have an impact to the reaction with Brexit which is the main concern on the euro. Besides that, there will also be noise in the emerging market that could either push the US dollar rate higher or lower depending on the trading for today. Hence, there is a lot of factors we should weigh-in trading this pair.
Analyzing the long-term charts, the price will probably range between 1.15 and 1.18. Overall, noise is expected but eventually, the direction will somehow be decided later on. For now, it is suggested to buy in short-term pullbacks as the trend is close to the bottom of the bigger consolidation than above. A lot of changes may happen, nonetheless, noise is likely to persist. Hence, traders should aim for long-term trades rather than short-term since there is not enough momentum to break through in the general range yet.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 14, 2018 The euro major pair was strongly bid yesterday after the positive turnout since April 25, given positive forecast on inflation. This strengthened the bullish trend of the pair. The falling wedge was broken as well as the rising 5-day and 10-day moving average (MAs).
Recently, the price is at 1.1694, increased by 0.04% on the day. Hence, we can say that there is less resistance on the upper channel unless the bullish trend doesn’t go well with the widening US-Germany (DE) yield differential. The two-year yield spread grew by 331 basis points today.
Nonetheless, if the US data had expected USD to gain upper hand against the euro before the market closes on Friday which is very low as this will slow down investors anticipations for future Fed rate hikes. On the other hand, a strong forecast demand could strengthen the economy from external shocks and place the bid lower than the greenback. The risk sentiment has become subdued after Trump’s remark saying the no pressure trade deal with China despite the positive risk disposition amid trade talks with China.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 18, 2018 The euro rallied during the Monday session and almost reaching the level of 1.17 where there is also a lot of selling last week. Overall, the market is likely to have a lot of noise there is a tendency for the price to go up. However, we should take note that consolidation will probably resume in long-term with the target to be at 1.18. Below it, there is support found at 1.15 but it is yet to be known if this can be broken soon. Ultimately, there may be a lot of noise and we can yet to determine if we can gather enough momentum to get this going in long-term.
There is a lot of factors to weigh in right now, especially since the ECB is in a dovish sentiment. At the same time, we have to consider debt of the emerging market with the European banks. Hence, there is a lot of various things the makes it difficult for the market to find their way in one direction or more. It is likely for short-term trading to keep on trading this pair alive, hence, trader should take consideration in trading large psychologically important figures.
If the pair can break higher than 1.18, the market will probably reach the level of 1.20 or more, where there is a lot of resistance expected. I would look forward to the upside movement in long-term, but not yet as of this writing.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2018 The euro rallied at the beginning of the trading session but markets sided to the US dollar as soon China retaliated to tariffs imposition causing them to jump to the Treasury market. The downtrend line was being tested influencing trading more that make add some difficulty overall. Looking at the hourly chart, there is likely to add more pressure in this area which is already expected. There are chances for equity traders to not give attention to trade tariffs but it may cause the market to get scared in the latter time.
On the other hand, the price could break higher than 1.1725 which give a very bullish sentiment. The move will probably reach until 1.1750 and further to 1.18 which happens to be at the top of consolidation. It probably needs more push, more than a short-term pullback but it is likely to happen. If it breaks lower than 1.1660, it could reach as low as 1.1625 with a lot of choppiness and overall difficulty of the pair amid the problems in trade war although it is not likely good in the European Union either.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 20, 2018 The euro major pair is directed northward within the range previously, but it is being hindered around the level of 1.17. Currently, the price is at 1.1679 with an increase of 0.05% on the day and it is necessary to surpass the level of 1.1700 to keep the present price action with bulls dominating the trend.
Trading during the Asian market shows a neutral stance with both sides trying to take lead. If the market fails to reach the are of 1.17, it will lead to an increase of Treasury yields and bigger spread for amid the widening two-year yields of US-DE (German). The 10-year treasury yield is now traded at 3.06% after achieving a two-month high of 3.10% on Wednesday. On the other hand, the two-year US-DE (German) yield spread has gained 333 basis points, which has been the highest rate since 1989. Investors are currently returning to undervalued assets that were assertively sold, as well as Aussie and kiwi dollars since there is a risk appetite and no apparent economic slowdown despite ongoing trade war that could be favorable for the common currency.
On a technical perspective, the support for this pair is found at 1.1650 and rebound which holds in a consolidation range and moves sideways for short-term. A breakout at 1.1650 could shift the short-term trend southward and expecting to meet the support levels below at 1.1625-1.1600. If the market is able to hold the level higher than 1.1650, the price level of 1.1720 could be tested again. Moving further, breaking the next medium-term resistance of 1.1745/50, it could open more profits in the future.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 25, 2018 The US dollar has a mixed sentiment during the North American hours after the recent update of Draghi on the EU parliament giving a transitory hawkish decision which pushed the pair down to 1.18, implying recovery of the market from the “underlying inflation” amid progressive labor market and some signals of shortages. Hence, this supports the ECB anticipations of higher wages. The price of the euro rose to a three-month high of 1.1815 from 1.1750 on Draghi’s speech. However, a few hours after that, the ECB chief undermined his own bullish rhetorics on inflation, adding more potential outcomes on protectionism, Perhaps, this can be because of recent fiscal plans in Italy prior to the FOMC later on. The major euro pair was affected by increasing Treasury yields and large outside day Doji candle on Monday.
On the technical aspect, the pair did not succeed again in maintaining the level above 1.1800 and close higher than 38.2% Fibonacci retracement in the range of 1.2556-1.1301. The decline implies there is not enough momentum. An appropriate breakdown lower than the support of 1.1725, which was previously a resistance, that could lead to a further decline below 1.1700 and help the strengthen the expectations. Meanwhile, the level of 1.1780 has strengthened and followed to 1.1800. If the price maintained higher than the boundary, the price is likely to extend the growth towards the June monthly-high resistance around the middle of 1.1800.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 26, 2018 The euro attempted for a rally higher than the level of 1.18 for some time but doesn’t succeed, which can be because of the upcoming FOMC statement. Traders are uncertain whether to place money on this situation. It is likely for the dollar to become the focal point in the next few days. Other than that, there is also the issue of Italy with the European Union. Hence, there is a chance for a breakout at the level of 1.18 and further towards 1.20, which is the initial target as it is an important level, as well as, in the past.
In case of a pullback, there may be a chance for the bullish traders to enter at a cheaper price as the level of 1.1725 is a little supportive. Nevertheless, the pair will probably break higher but needs some kind of a momentum if the decision of the FOMC becomes less hawkish than the forecast. Although this is just a probability, this event will largely affect the US dollar. Traders are trying to overlook the global trade fears, traders will still be able to bid on this pair.
Edited by user
2018-09-26T07:06:30Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 27, 2018 [img]https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTOneQ3-sMOoNzCBJtxBpi9t_sjaOyuQaCMvaA4rEDrnI9WuUgnDA[/img]
The euro major pair decline towards 1.1725 prior to the expected FOMC statement. Sad to say, we really can’t tell the future movement since most traders are waiting on the sidelines. Trading on news activity has already passed, especially on the retail side. However, traders can make its decision for long-term after the announcement. It will probably go beyond the level of 1.18 or not at the end of the session. If so, a breakout is possible and reach the level of 1.20 or higher.
If the price breaks lower than 1.17, there is a chance for a further decline of 1.15. A lot of volatility is also anticipated in long-term and a chance for a breakout if given sufficient time. However, it doesn’t mean it will not be difficult and a chance that the price can stay within the consolidation area for long-term. Recently, there are some hindrances in the bullish pressure but eventually, the outcome will likely be a breakout. This propels the price towards the next level of 1.0, which was important previously.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 28, 2018 The euro against the US dollar resumes its bearish trend during the North American session, losing almost 100 pips as the day closed as low as 1.1633 despite minimal activity in the night of market hours. After the macroeconomic report from the US, the US demand surged, which is gaining momentum against the rival currencies since Wednesday of FOMC announcement and largely influenced USD denominated currency pairs. The real-GDP growth in the U.S. for the second quarter remains the same at 4.2% and durable goods orders rose by 4.5% in August after the decline of 1.2% in July. The price resumed going down lower than 1.165 in the first few hours of Asian trading. Which then sustain the price range-bound.
Although, the recent announcement did not do much from the recovery of losses. Consequently, this could boost the spread between the 10-year Italian government bond yield and its German equivalent, which will further strengthen the bearish trend. Moreover, if the yield spread rises as expected, the market will less likely focus on the preliminary Eurozone CPI to be published at 9.00 GMT. Another to expect, the US markets can anticipate the data on the core of PCE price index, which is the main measurement of inflation. Yet, recently, the support at 1.1640 is critically tested. A strong breakdown at the said level, the pair could extend its losses to 1.1570-1.1500 while a short-term resistance can be found at 1.1665, 1.1755 and 1.1815 price levels.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 1, 2018 For the past few weeks, the US dollar has further risen as profits are gained during the first half of the year. Although, investors who have been closely monitoring the market, this did not come in surprising for them and they know that this relies on their hands. However, the decline of the EUR/USD pair has been strongly resistive or has been moving everywhere in the past few months.
However, instead of a quick decline, a slow drop is apparent in the trend and it looks like the euro can be able to sustain trading higher than 1.10 and continues to reach higher. The level of 1.15 to 1.16 will become a significant level on the daily chart and starting a large head and shoulder within the area where the rate was on August 15. This shows that there is a chance for a bullish momentum to establish as the end on the year approaches as long as the shoulders proceed to sustain this trend.
On the headline, there is nothing to expect much for the greenback in the coming days since there were already laid out in the market and the dollar has already established its rates in relation to trade wars. At the same time, the Fed raised their rates as to how the market expected it. Hence, the market is expecting largely of it and failing not to meet will just otherwise being a disappointment to the market. However, it might not be long for the trend to be reversed and provide chances for the bulls to return because of the headlines.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 2, 2018 The euro declined in the past few days while maintaining the trading range during the Monday session. A lot of support is offered below and the level of 1.15 offers some but right now, there is not much of a momentum.
After a breakdown for the past days, it is logical and it needs some break as it moves around the level of 1.16. The market will try to gain some momentum but it will not be surprising for the price to go lower before finding a lot of buying pressure, especially close to the level of 1.15 which was massively supportive in the past few months. The price shifting between 1.15 and 1.18, despite of a breakdown, there is no significant change over it.
A massive support level is apparent just below the level of 1.15 on the weekly long-term charts and needed a strong breakdown to pass through, which will likely limit the current downtrend. As of now, I am aiming to buy the pair but at a much lower area if the trend allows. On the contrary, in case it breaks higher than 1.1650, the price could return to the level of 1.18.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 3, 2018 The euro declined in the past few days while maintaining the trading range during the Monday session. A lot of support is offered below and the level of 1.15 offers some but right now, there is not much of a momentum.
After a breakdown for the past days, it is logical and it needs some break as it moves around the level of 1.16. The market will try to gain some momentum but it will not be surprising for the price to go lower before finding a lot of buying pressure, especially close to the level of 1.15 which was massively supportive in the past few months. The price shifting between 1.15 and 1.18, despite a breakdown, there is no significant change over it.
A massive support level is apparent just below the level of 1.15 on the weekly long-term charts and needed a strong breakdown to pass through, which will likely limit the current downtrend. As of now, I am aiming to buy the pair but at a much lower area if the trend allows. On the contrary, in case it breaks higher than 1.1650, the price could return to the level of 1.18.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2018 The euro rallied at the beginning of Wednesday session after the news announcement of Italy having less than 2% budget deficit by 2021. It has eased the tension between Italy in the European Union for quite a bit and being optimism in the market. Yet, if volatility continues in the pair, we should focus on various movements at the same time. The Federal Reserve is aiming to raise the interest rate for different time in more than a year or so which will have an impact to this pair. Nonetheless, the level of 1.15 offers to be significant and it will not be surprising for this price to be important after some time.
There is a lot of consolidation in the past few months and the trend is expected to move back and forth making the euro at a lower price. However, it does not show that the price would not decline but this implies a lot of value hunting in the pair. Traders should look into the formation of the lower price unless the price moves above the low from the previous trading session, it shows the price to form a new trend on the upside and probably move towards 1.18 as it has in the past.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 5, 2018 The EUR/USD pair recovered by the end of the London session and the bulls were able to sustain gains yesterday. In the early Asian session, the greenback has gained momentum for a short while it seems that the euro bulls are not on the lead after its breakthrough to the support level of 1.15 even before the start of the London session. Amid all the headlines and reports, the euro is likely to face more problems and further decline.
However, this did not happen as the currency was able to recover from the lows of the range which pushed the pair to further go up towards the 1.15 soon enough. In the meantime, this weakened the bullishness of the dollar and importantly considering the bullish sentiment of the dollar. From here on, we could wait for the next activity and majority of the news about to be published from the US and expect some form of volatility.
It may be wise for traders to wait until the reports are released and everything settled before choosing a decision on the next direction of the dollar. As for the euro, it looks stable for now while the focus of the market is on the Fed. Both the dollar and Trump are expected to affect the market for short-term. The recovery gives hope to the dollar bulls for short-term and probably take the lead in trading in the few days to come. However, as of the moment, the market sentiment shows a neutral trading.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 8, 2018 The euro major pair persisted holding the level of 1.15 on Friday, which is likely to similarly happen today. The pair bounced up from the low range on Thursday and the support level was further held up by the bulls giving optimistic outlook in the future. Few updates added to bullishness of the currency while some markets, especially stable funds, have thought of the euro downtrend to be limited.
The bulls are able to prop up the support level and probably aim for further purchases to raise the price. It may not be easy for the dollar which is gaining more support because of the Fed, especially with its recent rate hike. Other than that, the dollar currency is also considered to be the good investment in times of crisis which has been for a long time. However, the price just did for a few times.
Furthermore, the price was further supported by the recent talk from the Fed chief Powell who evidently said that there could still be other rate hikes and further boost the dollar. Given this situation, the euro bulls carried took control and held the support area around 1.15 but it may not be easy to further bring the price up. There is not much economic news recently and the euro is likely to consolidate and range almost the rest of the day.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 9, 2018 The euro major pair closed on a bearish sentiment yesterday amid dovish pressure on the currency and escalating trade tensions. There are also some concerns related to Italy’s budget that was just approved last week. European equities also plunged down to multiple months low on Monday while Italian government bond rose to 4-year high. Italy’s deputy PM noted that anti-austerity perspective will get more powerful across the continent. The euro pair comes in flat and steady at the beginning of Tuesday far from 1.15 but close to the short-term lows.
It seems that the euro pair would extend its decline in reference to the chart while the dollar positions to go higher when the market return in full power and the US Treasury yields will surge up. The pair was not able to hold moderate gains steady above the bearish 20-SMA. Currently, a dynamic intraday resistance is found at 1.1500 with the momentum remains at a bearish slope lower than 100. Yet, the RSI indicator moved steadily above oversold area despite limited volume and insufficient momentum. In the technical aspect, the resistance level is at 1.1500, 1.1530, 1.1565 and support at 1.1460, 1.1420, 1.1475.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 10, 2018 The euro against the US dollar exhibited a sharp drop during the Tuesday session because of Italian policy news, as well as, deputy PM Salvin rhetorics in plans of maintaining the budget and EU rules are anticipated to change. A strong dollar added more concern, resulting to surge in US Treasury yields. However, the euro begins to take the lead later on as the dollar weakened in the market due to the drop in US bond yield after reaching record highs. Moreover, risk sentiment has just returned in the market giving a positive impact following a hawkish tone in the Wall Street in the global market.
In a technical aspect, a long-tailed Doji candle was observed, implying a sell-off from the September high of 1.1815. A bullish reversal would be confirmed if the spot closes this day higher than the Doji candle of 1.1503. Based on the chart, the descending line has been cleared and trades above the 50- and 100-EMA with the RSI at 55, siding with the bulls. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish RSI divergence. It seems that this will result positively on long-legged Doji candle yesterday, confirming a bullish reversal. Yet, there would be lesser tendency to turn bullish from bearish if the Italian bond yields surge in the European session.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 11, 2018 The euro rose during the Wednesday session. A breakout on the level of 1.15 indicates that there is a demand for the currency. There is a “risk on” move with US traders and drive momentum.
We have seen this scenario where just recently the euro got a sell-off and the North Americans will have a steer to move forward in later in the day, of course, taking note of riskier currencies. Similarly, this is how the trading with the S&P 500 futures market and other precious metals. Worries on Brexit will still be apparent, as well as the debt issue with Italy. These bring uncertainty to traders but the US traders will give attention to their own economy.
Trading on mornings around 9 am where there is a momentum on the oversold situation can be advantageous. Eventually this is likely to change its course but for now, it seems to be moving steadily. The euro pair is not that far from forming the bottom for long-term, where both the resistance and support were previously located last year. A psychologically important level was found at the resistance of 1.18 which seems to be the aim of buyers. Moreover, a lot of noise will likely be present and considering the pair, we can expect more buyers below. A breakdown below 1.14 could result in a sharp decline. Nevertheless, it is less likely to occur at the present time.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 12, 2018 The euro major pair climbed to the top at 1.1590 prior to the release of the US data, which was the highest since October 3. In regards to recent US president, Donald Trump, the statement on fed’s tightening and plunged down equities influencing weakness of dollar during yesterday’s trading. The pair reached the intra-day high 1.15992 since the US CPI and unemployment reports did not meet expectations, resulting in further bullishness of the trend since today is the last day of the week.
In the beginning of the Asian session, the pair broke the level of 1.16, reaching an intra-day and even the monthly high at 1.16103 from 1.1606, grew by 0.11%. With Japan’s equities proceed to trade in red, other major markets such as India, Singapore, and China sighted equities to have an optimistic price action. The US dollar has been trading at its lowest level in October against other markets on Friday while continue to lose in US Treasury yields bringing pessimistic sentiment on Wall Street. On Friday, the dollar traded at 95 against six major currencies from 96.15 monthly high on Tuesday.
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 15, 2018 The euro against the US dollar resumes trading in a slow but steady pace while the market focuses on the dollar being unable to grow. Hence, the dollar was able to gain some decent profits since the start of the year but the euro and the pound were able to take their stand against the dollar. Meanwhile, this gives pressure on the dollar but uncertainty is still on the concern if the dollar could still get a lead.
The Fed is doing what it can to bring the dollar up but it is insufficient. They tried to break lower than 1.15 in the past few weeks but there have been strong buying of the pair and fails as it faced strong purchases and bounce over 1.15. The bulls also were not able to push the prices but still keep going that resulted in a flat in the past few weeks.
There are also concerns on US account deficit in a negative state for a long while which is anticipated to resume for medium-term which cannot be changed for the night despite government’s efforts. This adds pressure to the dollar with rising borrowing costs that will worry the dollar bulls in the medium term. For today, the US retail sales data adds volatility while the bulls are trying to take the lead.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 18, 2018 The euro major pair was kept at the daily lows after the release of FOMC minutes yesterday. It reached a new weekly low at 1.1510 close and hovered close to it after the release of Fed minutes. On Wednesday, the favor was in the dollar against a basket of currencies since the London trading time. Various local equities added to the political tensions and poor inflation have influenced the common currency, which in turn, benefits the US dollar. The dovish macro data has further given a bearish stand for the euro yesterday. Although the US housing data came in less-than-expected allowed some breathing in the market then the dollar continued its hawkish sentiment across the market.
By the end of the Wednesday session, the euro falls at the bottom below 1.1500 while there is another significant meeting of the EU. Consequently, the euro dropped during yesterday’s trading from the day high if 1.1580. Sellers were able to pick up momentum yesterday after the hawkish reports of the US FOMC minutes. In the economic calendar of the euro, the Wholesale Price Index at 06:00 GMT is anticipated to grow by 0.4% from 0.3% and another report on Swiss Trade Balance for September with a forecast of 2.482 billion from 2.134 billion. Nevertheless, the low-impact data is less likely to boost trading as traders are still on the edge waiting for hints on the EU’s EcoFin meeting in Brussels.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 19, 2018 The euro declined once again during the Thursday session after its bullish sentiment in the beginning. Yet, there is an important support level below which may be just for a short period of time. However, the shooting star pattern below drove the pair lower which something to get worried off. Hence, it is wise to wait on the sidelines, looking for a supportive candle or any bounce to make use of the support.
If the pair breaks lower than 1.1450 on the 4-hour chart, selling can be an option especially if it closes below it. Overall, we can be just grinding and taking a hint on the next move. There are various things to worry about such as the Brexit, the Italian crisis to name a few. Yet, traders should also keep their eye on the Treasury yields for the 10-year T-note from the US. It implies that the greenback can trade and take advantage of this situation with higher interest rate but would be not so good for the euro.
Volatility will present and then trades should be kept at small positions in case a successful breakout of the shooting star and then move further to 1.1530. Hence, there can be a drive to the upper channel and move towards 1.16.
Edited by user
2018-10-19T10:32:15Z
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Reason: Not specified
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 22, 2018 The euro major pair bounced up after a decline as it moved towards the support level of 1.1531and closed higher on Friday. However, there is a tendency for the pair to face risk and move higher in short-term. A bullish sentiment was established in the outside-day around the level of 1.1432 on Friday, indicating the pullback has stopped from the October 16 high at 1.1622. The European Union tries to lessen the deficit on budget expansion proposal and further strengthen the common currency on Friday. The European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said tension can be lessened through constructive conversations after the recent warning letter on criticizing fiscal plans of Italy.
The pair was able to find some sufficient support near the monthly lows at the area of 1.1435-30 and rose for almost 100 pips as a major part of weekly losses. The currency was further strengthened because of the dollar but lost some momentum after the rhetorics of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. On the other hand, the market received the news on Italy with its stable outlook that puts a limit on any sudden decline.
There is not much fundamental news that could affect trading while investors look for news that could affect the currency rates amid Italy policy concerns and Brexit updates. Moody’s decision was less-than-expected of investors. Thus, a relief rally on Italian markets may take place today. In case the spread between the 10-year Italy and German yields lessened by 300 bps, this could push the euro major pair higher and break through the level of 1.1535. The resistance levels of the pair would be 1.1535, 1.1575 and 1.1600 and the support levels would be at 1.1463, 1.1432, and 1.1400.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 24, 2018 The euro declined during the Tuesday session after the initial attempt of a rally. There is an important support level found below at 1.1450 and it seems that this will resume for some time, especially with all the activities happening in the European Union, we can anticipate testing this area will be around for a while.
After a rebound from the level of 1.1450, the euro dropped during the Wednesday session. This area has been significant previously. The price broke the level of 1.15 which seems to be acting as a resistance and a lot of things around the euro seems to be the problem. It could further go down when a fresh new low is broken. The current levels being tested are previously largely resistive in the past few months.
Retesting the current level resumes but a bit more weaker than a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the support continues to be tested and traders should monitor this level which will likely be significant. In case the price breaks higher than the recent high, it would probably head further north. For now, the price is likely to move to and fro because of the Italian debt and political problems surrounding EU. There is a chance to short this pair unless we buy on fresh short-term rallies.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 26, 2018 The euro major pair has broken the level of 1.1400 and dropped to a new monthly low at 1.1355 yesterday after the ECB monetary policy meeting yesterday. They intend to keep the rates unchanged, which is not surprising after their remarks. Draghi said that he has confidence on both parties with Italy will reach an agreement and said that further stimulus is needed after inflation which will likely gain momentum by the end of the year despite weak activity. The pair was seen to have recovered for a bit during Draghi’s speech and reach as high as 1.1432 during the Asian market and headed towards 1.13. Currently, the pair is trading almost flat with a bearish tone as low as 1.1366 and declined by 0.07% on the day.
The European central bank confirmed of ending the asset purchase program in December despite the budget concerns of Italy, weak data output and Brexit deal negotiation. The euro did not pick up bid price after the Fed officials were not shaken the stock market was not shaken according to Fed vice chair, Richard Clarida, Thus, yield differentials are likely to further increase in favor of the greenback pair.
In regards to the situation of the trade war, a risk-off investor sentiment increases after the Chinese yuan declined to new 21-month low against the dollar, chances of a trade war between the US and China worsening. As fear in the market worsens, risky assets may lose their stand on the last trading session for the week.
Obasi ForexMart, Official Representative
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