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Andrea ForexMart  
#601 Posted : Sunday, November 19, 2017 11:55:29 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017

The British pound persisted to move at a fixed rate but it is the opposite to the euro currency because of the news from German coalition talks. The pound has taken advantage of the low dollar as it rose to 1.32 level. However, it is still to be observed if this move higher.

The latest news from Germany will most likely affect the British pound as well as other countries of the Eurozone with the ongoing Brexit talk. Thinking about it, the current situation facing Merkel in Germany may be similar with U.K. Prime minister Theresa May as she also fights her own battle. However, it should be considered that any changes to cause uncertainty would most likely affect the Brexit as well. This will not be favorable to Germany or U.K. Nevertheless, both countries would want a good transition and come to a conclusion that would be beneficial for both ends.

Any uncertainty in Germany would slow down the talks and look forward to an agreement which could complicate more things further and be disadvantageous for the pound in long-term. Aggressive leaders are best suited in the current situation as they are looking for a conclusion. However, some domestic concerns are hampering the process which gets their attention. For short term, the British pound could have some gains because of uncertainty from Germany. However, this could have a negative impact on the U.K. for the long term if this situation is prolonged.

For today, the British pound seems to be put under pressure as it depreciates against euro during the London session. There is no major news from the U.S. or from the U.K. in other times of the day. Consequently, the consolidation with a bearish tone is anticipated to take place today.
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#602 Posted : Monday, November 20, 2017 6:43:11 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017

The EUR/USD were pressured by reports about failed coalition talks in Germany. The pair was having a smooth direction since last week as the market may be unaware of the unfavorable incidents, which shocked the markets upon the emergence of the news earlier on Monday. Moreover, this pushed the single European currency lower after its strengthened during the trading course last week.

The news that was released in the morning reports about the negotiations of Merkel’s parties in forming a coalition, as the FPD agreed to withdraw from the talks considering the unfeasible formation of the 4-way coalition at this particular moment. Hence, this caused trouble towards the entire government since Merkel would likely put all his effort to close a deal with other parties.

Germany is regarded to be the bedrock of the whole European region due to its well-established economy and government with the leadership of Merkel. Since her position is currently in jeopardy coupled with the ongoing Brexit, the scenario seems to have chaotic results that should be avoided. As the election results were issued, it disappointed Merkel as she failed to gain the victory among the majority which further exacerbates the situation.

As expected, this caused the euro to sell off and the EURUSD currently moved down towards the 1.1730 level as of this writing. Further selling is anticipated upon the development of the story and during the London trading session. ECB President Mario Draghi will have several speeches scheduled for this day, however, it appears that Draghi is in doubt to discuss monetary policy and was surprised by the current events in Germany

The lows of the range in the 1.16 mark is projected to be under pressure throughout the trading course.


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#603 Posted : Tuesday, November 21, 2017 7:55:50 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 21, 2017

The single European currency paired with the US Dollar descended and resumed to create a mini-bull flag formation, however, the fundamental and political events coincided against the EURUSD yesterday. The German PPI came in weaker than expected while the failed plan of Merkel to generate a coalition placed pressure to the EUR/USD.

The currency pair currently trades sideways and stayed around the 1.1800 region, after being pushed downwards amid earlier trading hours to test the 1.1704 support area close to the 10-day moving average. The short-term resistance entered the mark 1.1771 around the 50- day moving average. The positive momentum declined as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black. The trajectory of the indicator appears to be negative which implies consolidation towards the pair. The RSI also traded sideways showing a reading of 52 fixed in the middle of the neutral range. It further suggests consolidation.


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#604 Posted : Tuesday, November 21, 2017 8:33:25 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2017

The EUR/USD pair has a choppy which lead the whole trading session in the past 24 hours.Although, this was influenced by the events in Germany which have put pressure on the market. The euro was affected by the news of the coalition talks in Germany which resulted in a breakdown and declined to a much lower rate during the Asian session. It seems that the euro will be weakened but this was reversed during the trading session as it gained strength.

The euro climbed higher reaching the level of 1.18 as the market ignored the happenings which moved the whole trend higher. It was clearly shown that there is some pressure in the pressure which would be more obvious later on. It initiated during the U.S. session but the euro declined once again lower than the 1.1750 by the end of the day and will most likely continue.

Merkel has been facing an obstacle that has weakened both locally and internationally amid the Brexit negotiations. She would want to be in alliance with other parties although, she knows that this would not be easy. Another option is for her to go for another election but this would bring more uncertainty. It cannot be determined if she will come out stronger or would weaker position in the election. This shaken the German market which also affected the euro.

For today, there is no major news anticipated from the Eurozone or from the U.S. The euro is anticipated to trade in a weak manner in the course of the day and reached lower than the level of 1.17 until there are still pressure present in the market.
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#605 Posted : Tuesday, November 21, 2017 10:40:25 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 22, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was traded in a narrow range during the shortened week because of the holiday that affects both America and Japan on Thursday. The dollar gained momentum at the beginning following a positive home sales report that boosted the U.S. greater than 2 percent.

The U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index rose in October as well as the Retail store sales in the past week which is due to the busy holiday season.

The euro major pair rebounded at the support level close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1718 which stays afloat higher than the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. Although, it was not able to initiate liquidation for long-term. There is a resistance found close to the

November highs at 1.1860. The forward momentum is declining as the MACD histogram print is in black with a southward trajectory which could lead to the consolidation of the pair.


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#606 Posted : Wednesday, November 22, 2017 10:46:54 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2017

The GBP/USD pair gained more strength from the American dollar than the British pound after the publication of FOMC minutes. The announcement of budget and UK economic outlook had a slight impact towards the pound, hence, the weakness that was left in the dollar provided support to the Cable pair in order to edged higher.

This day is predicted to be highly volatile for the GBP due to the UK budget announcement and FOMC minutes in the United States later. If this happens, the GBPUSD would decline to the 1.3220 mark during the London hours after the issued news relative with the Britain’s budget, however, when the details were already published the flow is expected to reverse.

The announced budget seems to have huge borrowing amount that softened the sterling initially but reduced the trend productivity. This helped the pair to make a reversal and drive upwards near the 1.3250 level. Moreover, the GBP remained unchanged until the issuance of the Fed minutes which said that majority of the members agreed with the rate hike in December, but the following increase is not yet sure.

Mainly, concerns regarding inflation continues and the central bank stated that they wanted to wait for further upcoming data prior making a final decision for a further rate increase. The focus of the market is centered on the dovish statement that will weaken the greenbacks as well as to support the Cable to move near the 1.33 level. The pair is currently trading above 1.33 and would be better to push towards the mark 1.34 in the short-term.

Ultimately, the second estimate for the UK GDP is expected to release and marks the onset of the long weekend due to US Thanksgiving celebration. This indicates that liquidity may dry up while volatility could possibly lower down. In that event, it is not surprising for a boring consolidation for the rest of the day.
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#607 Posted : Friday, November 24, 2017 12:45:29 AM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 24, 2017

The British pound moved at a steady pace for the day as the pound bulls could not really make use of the long weekend in the U.S. which induced low volatility in the past 24 hours. This resulted in a subdued trading of the currency since the GDP data has been released which does not have much of an effect on traders as well as the volatility.

The publication of the GDP data marked the day which is already anticipated. Yet, this did not have any significant effect on the pound quotations. This would be beneficial for the pound bulls since the economy is about to balance out. Moreover, another budget data which was released the other day giving a positive result that sustained the rate of the pound for short-term amid the Brexit negotiations.

The domestic concerns of the country which were face UK PM May and the German leader Merkel but this has a minimal effect on the Brexit talks. It is already presumed that a breakout would occur after the December meeting which is yet to be observed where there will be an agreement between countries. Ultimately, this will be beneficial for the U.K. economy as well as the pound yet this are just prospects.

For today, there is less economic calendar along with the U.S. Thanksgiving for the weekend. The pound is anticipated to range within narrow levels and consolidate through the course of the day. This day will most likely result in a lackluster trading as the weekend is drawing closer.
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#608 Posted : Sunday, November 26, 2017 11:58:42 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 27, 2017

Most of the economies appeared to have an optimistic situation, however, political concerns that affect Europe especially the argument on German politics that heightened concerns over the nearing elections in Hungary, Italy, and Spain. Nevertheless, the Brexit negotiations are completely on track and conducted a significant move forward. According to reports, the United Kingdom offered further deal to clear the way for the European Council to comply with the initial transition and trade talks on December 14-15 summit.

The long transitional period and initial clarification towards the future relationship between Britain and the European Union seems to be essential for business plans and investments to increase. The EUR/USD pair broke out as Brexit talks could possibly advance and pushes the rate higher and plans to test resistance at 1.2092 level around September highs. The support is at 1.2092 region near the 10-day moving average. The positive momentum moved upwards as the relative strength index (RSI) broke out and climbed higher. It prints a reading of 69 which is located on the upper end of the neutral range heading to a higher exchange rate for the eurodollar. The momentum showed by the MACD histogram trailed upwards as the indicator prints in the black with an ascending trajectory which indicates to higher rates of prices.


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#609 Posted : Tuesday, November 28, 2017 6:57:42 PM(UTC)
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 28, 2017

The American dollar weakened versus the Japanese yen throughout the trading session yesterday, while the downward pressure continues. The path towards the 111.50 zone was already cleared and there is a possibility that the market will remain moving down near the bottom area of the overall consolidation felt in the past few months, in case of an extension towards 108 handle. This could possibly true since the US Congress cannot even establish substantial tax bills.

Moreover, it is preferred to impose a buy signal until a break on top of the 112 level on a daily close unless a supportive trend formed around the 108 handle, which is regarded previously as significant and supportive. The market would likely to make a reversal and the US Congress would be able to completely perform its task.

Meanwhile, the current situation can be defined as some sort of “sell the rallies”, as the greenback softened across the board. The JPY remains to be considered as safety currency and a cautious move can be witnessed given enough time. As shown in the hourly chart, a shooting star begins to form at the 111.25 mark which is a previous support and expected to be resistive at this moment. A cut through at the 110 level could possibly the next move and descended beneath the 110 region that nearly open the way through the 108 handle. Generally, a lot of volatility is predicted to continue, however, the general downward pressure remains to be a situation in the market that shows extreme choppiness.
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#610 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 6:54:58 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2017

The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar declined once again since the upsurge during the Friday trading session. The German IFO came out better-than-expected was counterbalanced by a steadfast consumer confidence which pushed the OECD with the tendency that overestimated the potential growth of Europe.

The EUR/USD pair declined as it tested the support level close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1818. The resistance level reached close to the September highs of 1.2092. The momentum persists in a good condition as shown in the MACD histogram where the print is black with an upward sloping trajectory that will most likely lead to higher exchange quotes. The head and shoulder reversal pattern was not successful as the peak reached at a neckline close to 1.1660. The latest upsurge has contradicted the reversal.

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#611 Posted : Thursday, November 30, 2017 8:33:34 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 1, 2017

The EUR/USD pair rose because of strong yields as it gained strength after inflation from France and a positive Chinese PMI manufacturing data. The Eurozone inflation came our dovish which resulted in a higher euro major currency pair.

The EUR/USD pair rally as it bounced to the support area close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1836. The resistance was found near the weekly highs at 1.1961. There is a neutral momentum seen in the trend as the MACD was printed in black with a flat trajectory that could lead to a consolidation. The RSI index climbed higher because of the positive impetus in the market.
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#612 Posted : Friday, December 01, 2017 12:27:16 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 1, 2017

The EUR/USD pair resumed trading in a robust manner in the past 24 hours while the strength of the US dollar alternately moves higher and lower amid the trading session yesterday. Moreover, this helped the eurodollar pair to go nearer the 1.19 level and continues to trade during the first part of the day on Friday.

The headlines on Thursday was mainly about the American dollar along with its tax reform bill which continues to undergo the Senate. While President Donald Trump and his team remain confident that the bill will be approved, the delayed process has placed pressure on the USD. It is expected that the proposed law will be enacted in the middle day of the week and because of different issues, the approval was delayed. Since we are currently on the last day of the week, the bill is not yet approved, however, it is expected to be passed today.

The ratification of the tax reform could possibly provide a limited and short-term increase to the greens but the underlying strength of the single European currency is clearly apparent for everyone to notice. As the tax reform bill is also priced into the markets, there is no any significant run from the USD regarding the bill enactment. It is still unclear if the euro will keep on gaining strength and reach the 1.20 level which could possibly the next target of the bulls

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases from the United States or the European region for this day, since the tax reform is projected to rule over the present day. The other main focus is the decision of the euro bulls whether to continue pushing the euro higher.
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#613 Posted : Monday, December 04, 2017 12:05:33 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 4, 2017

The euro paired against the U.S. dollar declined since the dollar is starting to strengthen in the past day. The dollar was the highlight in the past week. This will be applicable for the data which will be released from the U.S. due to political issues.

Tax reform will be pushed through by the Senate which would be beneficial for the greenback. The dollar will continue to climb higher as long as the process goes on accordingly. This is what has been happening since Friday. On the other hand, the issue concerning Flynn adds more pressure to the dollar which will put it in a negative stand.

These changes will most likely be the highlight in the news when it comes to the dollar and focuses the week. The dollar will move steadily during the short-term as the end of the week approaches. The rate hike is also anticipated to push through from the Fed for this month. Even though the dollar will rally for a brief period of time, these factors placed the dollars at a good bidding.

There will be no major news from the eurozone or the U.S. for today. However, the dollar will remain strong for the day because of the reasons mentioned above. This keeps the euro under pressure that could result in consolidation and ranges around the level of 1.19 during the day.
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#614 Posted : Tuesday, December 05, 2017 11:13:59 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 6, 2017

The pound dollar pair resumed declining as the greenbacks remain unchanged. The market is generally preferred a wait-and-see mode since this last month of the year. However, the case of the British pound would likely show higher volatility due to the emergence of political turmoil within and over the United Kingdom. This further caused the GBP to weaken which was seen in the past couple of days.

During the previous entire week, the sterling is crowned to be the strongest currency among its rivals because of the agreement prospect concluded in the Brexit negotiations that helped the bid to keep under the British currency. Moreover, the pound climbs higher to the 1.35 mark and seems that the Cable pair plans to ascend to the 1.38 level upon the release of the contract details within this week or the next. There are expectations that everyone will end the year with satisfaction after the details were announced.

Nevertheless, the opposition of the DUP party towards the Irish borders interrupted the deal that erased hopes for the current week. This deterred the plans of UK Prime Minister Theresa May that delayed her domestic and international plans. It may also imply a tough decision to conduct any deal in the short-term for this apparently put pressure on the pound, while the pair slumped again to the 1.34 mark amid the current trading course.


Ultimately, there are no major economic releases from Britain as the spotlight is turned to the USD and the ADP employment report scheduled later today. On the other hand, UK services PMI data showed some weakness yesterday that further contributed pressure on the GBP. In case that the ADP figures came in positive, then the pair is expected to soften in the near-term.
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#615 Posted : Wednesday, December 06, 2017 2:51:54 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 6, 2017

The European currency edged downwards while the yields declined and the American dollar was able to conduct further progress. This happened after the release of a weaker than anticipated result of the European Retail Sales data. Moreover, the Services PMI in the euro region had increased as the US trade deficit expanded that could lessen the overall growth in the U.S. economy.

The eurodollar pair descended during the trading session on Tuesday and fell near the support at 1.1866 level around the 10-day moving average. The current support highlighted the 1.1757 mark beside the 50-day moving average. Further support lies at 1.1630 near the ascending trend line. Additionally, the momentum became negative and at the same time, the MACD histogram formed a crossover sell signal. The moving average convergence divergence index prints in the red, showing a descending sloping trajectory that moves to a lower exchange rate.
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#616 Posted : Wednesday, December 13, 2017 11:09:18 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 13, 2017

The EURUSD edged downwards as the German investor confidence came in weaker than predicted results, along with the robust figures of American inflation data that reinforced the US dollar and put pressure on the single European currency. Small business confidence in the United States also showed secured position combined with strong U.S. chain store sales.

Originally, the euro-dollar pair trailed lower on Tuesday and drove upwards to test the resistance at 1.1819 area near the 10-day moving average. The support of the pair touched the 1.1675 region around the ascending trend line. While prices generate a topping formation and market participant anticipates for the Fed decision as the central bank is highly expected to increase interest rates in the US by 25 basis points. The momentum became negative and the MACD indicator created a crossover sell signal. The moving average convergence divergence further prints in the red with a descending trajectory which implies for a lower exchange of rate.
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#617 Posted : Monday, December 18, 2017 8:31:57 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 18, 2017

The British pound trades in a strong manner since the day started even despite the lack of fundamental developments. Also, there are not much economic releases on Friday which allow the consolidation and ranging for the price action within that day. At the same time, there are reports about increasing support for the US tax reform bill during the American trading session, it further indicates that the bill is expected to be passed amid the course of the current week. Hence, this enables the US dollar to grow and pushed the GBP/USD pair downwards during Friday’s late session. When the bill is approved, the strength of the greenbacks is expected to resume in the near term, until the year ends. In turn, the Cable pair will continue to be under pressure throughout this period, however, the level of impact remains unclear.

On weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated her determination to push through the Brexit process and she further stated her willingness to deal with it in the short term concerning the payment that the United Kingdom need to settle along with the possible trade access. These two factors are the most important elements to consider but the UK and the market seem worried about these. The process appears to be a little bit of delay but the encouraging speech delivered by PM May successfully give a slight raise to the sterling earlier this morning.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the US or the UK for the rest of the day while some consolidation and ranging are expected much for today. Moreover, volatility might get a slight boost upon the onset of the US session and further updates with regards the tax bill.


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#618 Posted : Wednesday, December 20, 2017 12:50:38 AM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2017

The GBP/USD currency pair was able to move ahead of the American dollar, as the USD lower in price amid smooth approval process of the tax bill. The passage was projected to support the dollar to increase, however, the effect was completely different. The market’s reaction remains uncertain not until the bill is already passed through in one of the US Houses and waiting for the Senate approval. However, there could be some delay due to procedural problems which could possibly place some pressure on the greenbacks that could further lead to uncertainty. As expected, the tax reform bill will be enacted by the Senate on a very tight margin and further requires the President’s signature to seal in the law. The whole scenario would likely be completed within this week, hence, the volatility in the USD should keep going until it happens.

The Brexit process does not have much improvement over this week and it is predicted to continue until New Year. Definitely, there will be some strong development in the process since the leaders on both sides clearly stated about the completion of a deal which may take a matter of time prior accomplishing the agreement. This notion seems to provide support for the pound in the past couple of weeks.

Ultimately, BOE Governor Mark Carney will have his speech but the impact to the market is predicted to be minimal. The market trend for today would likely be led by the USD and tax bill legislation. It is believed that the greens should gain more strength in the short and medium term in order to maintain the GBPUSD active.


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#619 Posted : Wednesday, December 20, 2017 11:47:27 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2017

The euro paired against the U.S. dollar still dominates the market as it positions strongly, although the volatile is starts to lessen come to the end of the week. The volatility would be much more minimize by the end of the week with the year about to end.

The U.S. tax reform bill was successfully passed that require Trump to seal it after which is anticipated soon. This is considered as an achievement for Trump as everyone in the team worked hard for this. It would also be beneficial for the large companies and gain more profit which would bring in more jobs in the U.S.

Trump has stabilized his position at the top which would now shift his attention to other bills such as the healthcare reform bill. However, the stock market and foreign exchange of the U.S. dollar did not have that much vigor, as the dollar is starting to decline recently compared to its position last week. It has been all over the market which supported the euro instead.

The EUR/USD pair was seen to touch on the 1.19 level but moved after into a consolidated yesterday. Trades are being traded just currently below the said level. When it comes to news, the final GDP data from the U.S. is anticipated today but there will be no other economic news to be published from the Eurozone. Hence, the trading range is presumed to tighten especially since the holidays are approaching.


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#620 Posted : Friday, December 22, 2017 2:14:44 AM(UTC)
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 22, 2017

The Aussie dollar traded sideways initially amid Thursday’s trading session, however, it moved higher following a weaker numbers of American GDP. This further caused the greenbacks to decline while providing a slight increase towards the Australian dollar during the day.

Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair trades in a low-volume at the margin during the day and traders are concerned to the approaching holidays in contrast to the currency markets.

It can be assumed that a break down under the 0.7625 area will push the market downwards reaching the 0.75 handle. It appears that the AUD will have some difficulty in moving higher to the upside, as a result, sellers manage to conduct a return. Perhaps, the market is easier to short at higher levels, but for now, it is suggested to stay on the sidelines until the volumes return.

There are some resistance barriers throughout the way which could make a difficult course to drive upwards. Hence, buying the commodity-linked pair seems to be under pressure. On the other hand, there’s no any shorting opportunity due to rally attempts by the market. The ability to roll over will push the market quickly, but it is impossible to see until after the New Year’s Day. Therefore, the market is expected to be difficult to deal with.


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