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Andrea ForexMart  
#641 Posted : Monday, February 19, 2018 8:12:52 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 19, 2018

The single European currency and the British pound shared the same fate on Friday, as it showed high volatility during the first half of the day due to the weakening of the US dollar. While in the afternoon, the strength of the American currency prevailed which helped regain the profits of the sterling of the past few days. It further helped the GBP/USD pair to end the weak in a sluggish approach which indicates correction in the following days.

The pound was secured because of the dollar instability and pushed the Cable pair to reach the 1.38 zone until the psychologically important level of 1.40. Briefly, the pair moved away from any danger for good and the pound bulls attempt to stabilize the momentum in continuing the upward movement in the near term.

As the decline of the dollar does not have enough economic data or fundamentals to support it, the rebound in the US currency did the same. This resulted in the downturn of the pound, pushing through the 1.41 mark and traded underneath the 1.40 area for a short period of time. Subsequently, the pair successfully closed the week above the 1.40 level. As of this writing, the Cable pair continued trading on top of that region and the price level is expected to remain on that point, relative to the bulls and bears. In case the pair remained steady above 1.40, the bulls will take control which would likely to be seen in the coming weeks.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the United Kingdom while there is a bank holiday in the United States today. It is safe to say that consolidation and ranging are possible while market players anticipate for bigger investors to show up its intentions and start to move in a certain trend in order to tag along. It is believed that the USD will gain strength in the medium term.



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#642 Posted : Wednesday, February 21, 2018 9:46:32 PM(UTC)
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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 21, 2018

The single European currency paired with British pound had broken down during the course of Tuesday’s session. The EUR/GBP pair moved lower near the 0.88 mark which is a previous support and resistance. Hence, it should be expected that the market will have plenty of noise around that level.

Generally, the market will be noisy due to potential headline risk brought by the euro/pound pair in line with the negotiations of the European Union and the United Kingdom. Therefore, this problem might continue until the next couple of months that make trading tough over a long period of time.

Breaking down under the 0.88 region will allow the market to touch the 0.8740 zone. Otherwise, a rally from that point will push the market above the 0.8860 level or even to 0.90 eventually. This type of market requires players to take profits hurriedly for it’s nearly impossible to hover a trade in the longer-term, except when one is able to deal with wild swings for both profit and loss. Nevertheless, the general upward trend will resume since participants favor the EU stability against the uncertain future of the UK. It is possible to move on top of the 0.93 area.


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#643 Posted : Tuesday, February 27, 2018 1:22:42 AM(UTC)
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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 26, 2018

The euro against the British pound broke lower than the Friday trading session and reach lower than the level of 0.88. There is a massive support around the area with a lot of noise in the long-term.

The presence of noise will most likely persist with the headlines as the result of negotiations between Brussels and London which is likely to influence the pair. At the same time, traders should anticipate for volatility. Looking at the weekly chart, the pair ranges 300-pips and it will remain for some time until there is a definite proposition for the negotiation. The market should anticipate for this to continue in a while.

Traders could utilize in accordance to the stochastic oscillator as they will be trading back and forth in short-term. There is also a probability for negativity with the level of 0.87 in the floor below. The closer this level can be reached, it is wise to buy in this market and will be the focus on this move. Traders could sell at some point and volatility is likely to persist unless it turns around higher than the level of 0.8840. Hereinafter, buying is possible and continues to be volatile. However, if you are not strong enough and focus on the consolidation of the area and a lot of opportunities to gain profit in a well-defined rectangle.
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#644 Posted : Wednesday, February 28, 2018 1:50:49 AM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 27, 2018

The euro against the U.S. dollar has been trading closely on either side at the level of 1.23 as the market presumes the pair to move further.

The EUR/USD pair is moving within a tight range in the past 24 hours which is already anticipated in Monday trading session. Low volatility is not surprising in the current market condition. Traders are likely to position themselves for this week on Mondays which causes low volatility.

Similarly, trading remained the same despite the speech of ECB President Draghi yesterday. The speech met the expectations with him saying positively on the growth of the economy in the eurozone. He is recognized to be dovish but the fact remains of the steady growth of the economy as reflected in the incoming data and remains positive in the past few months. This has preserved the euro to keep afloat in the past 24 hours although the movements have been very minimal.

The market is also anticipated to gain volatility and liquidity as the end of the month is approaching. At the same time, price fluctuations to be inundated by trade positioning and monthly end flow. Options are also about to expire in the upcoming days, which will keep the market busy on particular price range.

The market will probably focus on the dollar with the new Fed chief, Jerome Powell, to testify and engage the market waiting for signals on monetary policies and future rate hikes in the next few months. As for the economic data, both the durable goods data and the trade balance data from the U.S. will be published and if it did not meet expectations, the dollar is likely to roll downward.



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#645 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2018 1:17:01 AM(UTC)
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: March 2, 2018

The U.S. dollar retreated in the beginning during the Thursday trading session and reach the level of 106.50 prior its rebound to the level of 107. Overall, the price level of 107.50 will probably be attained then move towards the area of 108. There is also the presence of noise but the 106.50 level is also giving off support. Presence of buyers will be felt for some time, especially when the stock market gained its momentum once again. The market would then reach the area of 110 towards the level of 114.

A massive support was seen close to the area of 105, which has been psychologically significant and structurally previously. Hence, a breakdown below would not be a good thing for the pair and confirms the decline to the level of 100.

In long-term, the market would further climb higher especially if the rise in interest rates would continue amid the differential interest rate of ten-year notes between both countries and propel towards its next move, although, this would be good for a long-term goal. The market will probably proceed with noise but there are also opportunities to pullbacks that some would take advantage immediately.


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#646 Posted : Tuesday, March 06, 2018 11:04:43 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 6, 2018

The EUR/USD pair constantly trading in a strong manner as it moves away from the election results in Italy. The focus remains to be on the dollar weakening felt across the markets. It is somewhat surprising for those who expected that the Italian election will bring an impact towards the euro area but the results of further led concerns of the EU leaders.

Italy is the third biggest economy in the European region and the election results indicate the increasing anti-establishment votes. This event is common from all over the countries especially from the United States to Asia. Hence, this should be one of the main concerns of the Euro officials since this kind of trend may grow continually which could hurt the euro and its existence in the following years. However, this does not necessarily mean that the euro is free from any burden while traders appear to be happy about the maintained current situation. This the reason behind the move of the euro/dollar pair through the 1.2350 level as of this writing

Ultimately, there are no important economic news or data from the EU or the US for this day but this reflects some ranging and consolidation in the near-term. Also, the markets anticipate further set of data in the second half of the week from the United States, indicating a short-term trend for the greenbacks.
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#647 Posted : Wednesday, March 07, 2018 10:53:44 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 7, 2018

The British pound resumes its uptrend amid the weakened dollar across all market in the past 24 hours. Although the increase was not as high as it can be, it was able to move steadily which has assisted the British currency to recover from its lows and have a steady uptrend over the past few days. These gave the investors more confidence during the said period of time.

Meanwhile, the sterling pound has been moving steadily and further boosted by the lack of economic data. The ongoing Brexit negotiation following the set plan also supports the pound. Euro leaders have been busy with their domestic concerns and at the same time, rumors and commentaries about them have also lessened At the same time, the Brexit negotiation has assisted the dollar to move steadily.

The dollar got behind against other currencies following the resignation of Trump’s economic advisor, John Cohn, which is not favorable for the president and his team as they have had some difficulties in handling situation in the past few months. On the other hand, this is advantageous for the dollar as the overall market which is the reason for the dollar’s decline during this period of time.

The market is getting ready for the slew of data in the upcoming days with a new month has begun. The ADP employment report expected to be released today will hint at the results of another incoming data of Friday. If the data came out weakly, this would further push the GBP/USD pair towards the area of 1.40.
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#648 Posted : Thursday, March 08, 2018 10:56:17 PM(UTC)
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: March 9, 2018

The euro paired with the dollar had whipsawed yesterday and pulled lower after the monetary policy meeting of the ECB. The focus of the meeting was back again about removing the easing bias. The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to kept the interest rates unchanged and further confirmed the timeline of the Quantitative Easing (QE) until the end of September. Moreover, the unemployment claims edged higher from its 48-year low over the past 24 hours. But the US labor market remained tight to support the American currency.

The EUR/USD pair moved downwards and formed a triple top followed by a head and shoulder reversal pattern. The resistance entered the 1.2446 region which is close to its March highs, while the support touched the 1.2308 level around the 10-day moving average. The momentum had a reversal and approached the negative territory. The MACD index showed a crossover sell signal as well as the fast stochastic indicator. As of this writing, the MACD histogram prints in the red with a descending sloping momentum which reflects lower prices.



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#649 Posted : Monday, March 19, 2018 7:15:26 PM(UTC)
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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: March 19, 2018

The EUR/GBP pair has plenty of noise during the trading course last week. However, the current position is in the significant consolidation zone. The level below the 0.87 is the “floor” of the market and the area above 0.90 is the “ceiling”. The pair seems appealing to short-term traders but there could be an ascending trend in general. We are waiting for the results of the talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union, upon the clarity of this, the EURGBP will strive to conduct significant moves.

Despite of this, the market may still offer significant opportunities but the longer-term trader will continue to struggle and possibly hold the range that provides benefits in trading despite any fluctuations. An ability to break down under the 0.87 handle will push the market to the 0.85 eventually. Otherwise, a cut through on top of the 0.90 region would give rise to a “buy-and-hold” scenario. The level above 0.93 handle is the most recent high. As of this writing, there are no break out expected in the next few weeks and would lead to a range bound short-term market.
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#650 Posted : Wednesday, March 21, 2018 7:01:17 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 21, 2018

The British pound against the U.S. dollar had a downward correction due to the pressure from the dollar which has been strengthening across markets yesterday. The pair positions just over the area of 1.40 and there seems to be no threat for the bulls but it is still uncertain who will lead the trend.

There will be high volatility in the market with the expectation of the FOMC rate announcement which would then be followed by a press conference. It is highly anticipated that the Fed will raise their rates for the first time, which is highly possible. However, we cannot be certain if the market expectations of a hawkish decision would be met, which the market bulls area also hoping for.

However, if the greenback weakens, this would come about just for a short period with the incoming data to dominate the market and boost the dollar. For tomorrow, we have the BOE meeting to look forward to but it is yet to be known if this will have a hawkish tone, in consideration of the Brexit talks in the past few weeks. If this happens, traders should expect for volatility.

Considering all this, traders are suggested not to presume any outcome or direction and trade deciding on the how the situation presents. It is best to wait for the markets to settle down then decide later on when the market has stabilized. For today, the FOMC meeting will be the center of attention that could result in consolidation in the market.
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#651 Posted : Monday, March 26, 2018 2:34:50 AM(UTC)
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 26, 2018

The American currency plummeted against its Canadian counterpart during the previous trading session and began to move near the 1.31 handle and break the 1.30 region. The oil markets performed pretty well which make sense. It seems that the market will find further reasons to chop around the 1.28 zone, which appears to offer support.

The cluster seen in this region served as the current support but this indicates a negative note as the “two-week shooting star” pattern was formed after a complete round trip. Alternately, an ability to break above these 2 candles would likely show a bullish sign but the USD/CAD is preparing to move back and forth amid concerns on trade war breakout.

It seems that the short-term traders will prevail over the market next week with the 1.28 region as the floor and 1.31 would act as the ceiling. Hence, the situation might be very choppy and tough, however, breaking on top of the 2 candle will clear the way through the 1.35 handle. Market players should observe the WTI Crude Oil and a gap over $70 is enough to break the market downwards.
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#652 Posted : Monday, April 02, 2018 3:42:38 AM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 2, 2018

The GBP/USD pair continued trading around the 1.40 support zone which is expected to be the battleground between the bears and the bulls in the near term. However, it is difficult to make a conclusion since today is a holiday in many countries in celebrating the Easter Sunday. Hence, liquidity and volatility are predicted to be extremely low.

The Cable managed to move over the 1.42 level in the past few weeks amid the dollar weakening and also because the BOE’s hawkishness which continues to become a stronger economy as the Brexit process become smoother. The process resumed a slow, steady and continuous manner and it would take less than a year prior to the completion of the process.

So far, the British economy supported for such improvement as the process continue to smoothen and the UK had a positive performance which helped the Bank of England to conduct a rate increase during this period.

The resumption of a stable economy is beneficial for the central bank to consider further rate hikes ahead and this helped the BOE to maintain a hawkish stance. These events pushed the pair near its highs in the short-term range but it met a lot of selling as the American currency strengthen. As a result, the GBPUSD pair hovered around the significant level of 1.40. In case that the support was broken, the bears will have an opportunity to dominate again the market.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the UK or the US since its holiday in most parts of the world which indicates that the volatility and liquidity would be low for that day.
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#653 Posted : Tuesday, June 12, 2018 11:53:47 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 11, 2018

The pound/dollar pair continued to trade around the 1.3430 region on the back of the failure to create bullish momentum in the previous week, as it was beaten by the major handle and the markets are waiting for further progress in Brexit this week. Due to the scheduled FOMC rate hike in the upcoming week, the interest rate differential of the GBP and the USD is predicted to move in different directions which could hold the Pound on its starting position and push the British currency into the recent lows. Following the recently rejected Irish border solution, market participants await for further news within this week while the United Kingdom continue to negotiate in looking for the middle ground for the hard-line Brexiteers and the EU leadership in Brussels. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Theresa May was caught in between and trying to find fair solutions for both sides.

The upcoming week is projected to be really busy for the Sterling pound since 4 out of 5 trading session this week brought extreme impact to the UK calendar that could support a high level of volatility for market players. Today has plenty of data for Britain which will be all published at 08:30 GMT, however, the focus will be on the Manufacturing Industrial Production data which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%. The US session today appears to be in smooth sailing according to the economic calendar, but traders might deal with the G7 summit blowout, wherein US President Donald Trump leave the summit earlier and depart the US’ support of the G7 communiqué, following a Tweet from POTUS aboard Air Force One heads to Singapore for the Trump-Kim summit.

At the same time, the figures for Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr), Claimant Count Change (May), Core CPI & PPI input and Core retail sales in the next three consecutive trading sessions. Moreover, the daily chart indicates that the GBP/USD currency pair corrected higher from the lows of 1.3205 alongside the diverging technical oscillators. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had an unexpected move towards the oversold area and bounced back to the GBP, which descends to the levels of the beginning of last week. The Slow Stochastic resumed moving in an upward trajectory. The daily chart of the 50-day and 100-day moving average formed a death star crossover, this means that there is an initial downside potential of the Cable pair to break the 1.3300 region prior attacking the area of 1.3200. The upside of the pair is necessary to break back above the 1.3380 to the 1.3450 target, which is the last week’s high.


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#654 Posted : Monday, June 18, 2018 10:33:08 PM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 18, 2018

The British pound was able to dodge the immediate impact of the rise of the dollar while the euro dropped by two significant points that dominate the market in the previous week. The dollar gained from the rate hike which started by the Fed and the positive outlook of the Fed in the economy.

The hawkish sentiments gave t chance to the dollar to rise and the dollar bulls to plan ahead with two more rate hikes to look forward to. The Fed gives similar signals which still yet to be seen if they would continue the process and they would implement this in a specific period of time later on. We have witnessed that the rate hike would have minimal impact on the market, especially on the pound.

It seems that everything is going smoothly in the UK as the Brexit negotiation starts to advance and there are no signs of risks yet. Hence, the pound maintained its position in the support area despite the strengthening of the dollar and activities in the eurozone. The European Central Bank decided to extend the easing program which in turn, weakened the euro. Although, these things did not really affect the pound as it continues to trade close to the area of 1.32.

There are some strong purchasing in this area, as well as at the level of 1.30. Once this is achieved, the lead will be in the hands of the bulls which is likely to be maintained in short term. It seems that there is also no major event to affect the movements and we can say that the price is in consolidation and persists to be within the range for the day.


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#655 Posted : Wednesday, June 20, 2018 1:35:33 AM(UTC)
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: June 19, 2018

The Sterling pound slightly weakened amid Monday trading course and further moved lower to the 1.32 zone. This level is considered a round psychological significant number but it seems that the market will search for additional support below the 1.30 area. It is also possible that rally sell-off will resume since the American dollar is expected to continue to attract traders who badly need protection.

A break over the 1.33 handle would allow a higher move to 1.34 level. After the extreme sell-off on Thursday, this would be a difficult scenario to reverse things, and the momentum is believed to be on the side of the sellers regardless of any situation. Forecasts also show that the level below 1.30 would likely be a massive support area and a break down beneath indicates a negative scenario.

There is high chance that the market will see a “sell the rallies” type of consolidation in the near-term, which means pushing a move to the downside in the longer-term. Nevertheless, good news could help to turn things around.


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