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HFblogNews  
#481 Posted : Monday, July 15, 2019 1:00:06 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 511

Date : 15th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2019.


UserPostedImage

* Trade warring and slowing global growth have set the scene for a possible earnings recession, which could catalyze a risk-off phase in global markets. Therefore next week’s inflation data out of some of the major economies, Australia’s employment report and China’s 2Q19 GDP report could be the highlights in the coming week. Another focus is the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings season, which will get into gear next week with “show and tells” from the banking sector.

Monday – 15 July 2019

* China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.2% y/y pace in Q2, from the 6.4% y/y growth rate in Q1. The economy has grown at a 6.2% pace so far in 2019, while it was at a 6.6% pace for all of 2018, leaving the slowest growth rate since the 3.9% clip in 1990. It grew 6.8% in 2017.

* Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – New Zealand inflation is expected to rise by 1.7% y/y in Q2, edging higher than the 1.5% observed in Q1.

Tuesday – 16 July 2019

* Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA has already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance.

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip.

Wednesday – 17 July 2019

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June.

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory.

Thursday – 18 July 2019

* Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian labour market data is expected to deteriorate, as the employment is anticipated at 10K from 42.3K in May.

Friday – 19 July 2019

* Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The main US consumer confidence index is expected to ease to 93.0 in March, compared to 93.8 in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#482 Posted : Tuesday, July 16, 2019 12:29:21 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 511

Date : 16th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2019.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

* Treasury yields steadied during the Asian session, with bonds erasing overnight gains and the 10-year yield now up 0.3 bp at 2.092%. JGB yields also backed up from lows and are down -0.1 bp at -0.129%, after returning from holiday, while yields declined in Australia and New Zealand after the minutes of the last RBA meeting showed the bank remains ready to adjust policy if needed.

* Stock markets meanwhile struggled in very light volumes as markets hold back ahead of key US data and earnings reports this week.

* On trade talks US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he and Trade-Representative Lighthizer may travel to Beijing if talks by phone this week are productive.

* The WTI future is trading below $60 per barrel and U.S. futures are posting marginal gains.

* In Europe, the GER30 future is currently slightly higher as are US futures, which UK100 futures are in the red, amid ongoing Brexit jitters as Boris Johnson, poised to succeed as PM next week, puts no-deal options firmly back on the table.

* Last week’s round of Brexit negotiators was reportedly one of the most difficult encounters of the last 3 years.

* Meanwhile JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Taiwan Semiconductor are among the companies reporting results this weeks.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD has been held between its 20-day Moving Average of 1.1295 and its 50-day Moving Average at 1.1242 since Friday. A 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the end of the month has been priced into EURUSD, and focus now may shift to the ECB, where further stimulus could be in the cards at its next meeting on July 25, keeping EURUSD capped for the time being.

* USDJPY broke earlier today its 20-day Moving Average at 107.95, after printing 8-session high from 107.80 during the overnight Asian session. The mixed risk backdrop has limited the pairing’s gains since last week, as Wall Street trades on either side of flat, and Treasury yields remain pressured. The July 5 low of 107.76 remains a floor for the asset, while next Resistance stands at 108.20 and 108.50

Main Macro Events Today

* Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month.

* ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month.

* Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip.

Support and Resistance levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#483 Posted : Wednesday, July 17, 2019 2:59:59 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 511

Date : 17th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2019.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

* Stronger than expected US retail sales data put some pressure on bond markets.

* However, Equities turned lower as trade uncertainty returns.

* After the Chicago Fed President Evans flagged two rate cuts this year and US President Trump threatened to put another USD 325 bln of tariffs on Chinese goods, Stock markets were nervous and risk aversion lingered.

* US stock futures are posting fractional gains and Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.05% and -0.27% respectively.

* Released overnight, a -17.3% decline in Singapore non-oil exports highlighted the damaging impact of global trade tensions.

* WTI crude dives near 3%, after Pompeo indicated that Iran is willing to negotiate on missiles. Oil prices are now trading at USD 57.69 per barrel, on yesterday’s indications that US-Iran tensions could be easing.

* Germany’s Von der Leyen confirmed as new EU Commission President. Von der Leyen will succeed Juncker and IMF head Lagarde today is tendering her resignation as her nomination for Draghi’s post looks more certain

* Bunds rallied from the off today and European stock futures are in the red after a mixed session in Asia, despite the prospect of additional easing measures.

* Bank of America and Netflix are due to report results today.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Technician’s Corner

* USOIL: WTI crude has fallen 3% on the session following comments from US Secretary of State Pompeo in a cabinet meeting, who said for the first time, Iran is prepared to negotiate on its missile program. This news may signal a shift of policy in Iran, perhaps set to lower geopolitical tensions in the Mideast. The WTI contract has fallen from earlier highs just over $60.00 to $57.06 lows. Support now holds at $57.30 and $56.30. Resistance is set at $58.07 and $58.75.

Main Macro Events Today

* Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI.

* Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front.

* Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June.

* Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory.

Support and Resistance levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews  
#484 Posted : Thursday, July 18, 2019 1:39:48 AM(UTC)
HFblogNews


Rank: Advanced Member

Groups: Registered
Joined: 5/28/2017(UTC)
Posts: 511

Date : 18th July 2019.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2019.


UserPostedImage

FX News Today

* Bonds were supported by ongoing trade concerns, with the tensions between Japan and South Korea add to the lingering concerns about US-Sino relations.

* A WSJ report suggesting that trade negotiations between the US and China are at a “standstill.” This was followed by fresh evidence of the impact that trade tensions have been having, with Japanese trade data revealing a worse-than-expected 6.7% y/y contraction in exports, which have shrank for seven straight months now.

* South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates and said it has room to act again.

* The Fed’s Beige Book still said economic activity “continued to expand at a modest pace”, but globally central banks are clearly preparing for a marked slowdown as trade tensions bite.

* Concerns about a weak earnings season are putting pressure on stock markets.

* The USA100 futures dipped -0.6% so far after Netflix Inc posted a surprise loss of US customers.

* The GER30 future is underperforming as well amid a broad based decline in European and US stock futures after a weak session in Asia overnight.

* The WTI future meanwhile is trading at $56.70 per barrel.

* Fears of a no deal Brexit scenario also continue to cloud over the outlook but while the ECB is expected to at least introduce an official easing bias next week, before cutting rates in September.

* ECB’s Villeroy highlighted this morning that central banks can’t perform miracles and need help from politicians and fiscal policies.

Charts of the Day

UserPostedImage

Technician’s Corner

* EURUSD recovered slightly from 7-session lows of 1.1200, peaking at 1.1243. Brexit concerns have weighed on economic activity on the continent as well as the UK, and could limit Euro gains going forward. Risk for the EUR comes from the ECB as well, with a shift to an explicit easing bias expected by many at next week’s meeting, or at subsequent meetings. EURUSD support comes at 1.1218-1.1229, with Resistance at the 61.8% Fib. level from 2-week peak, at 1.1250-1.1252.

Main Macro Events Today

* Retail Sales (USD, GMT 08:30) – A -0.3%m/m contraction is expected for June retail sales, following 0.5% May loss. In the y/y comparison, sales are anticipated at 2.6% from 2.3%.

* Initial jobless claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The initial jobless claims for the week of July 13 are estimated to fall to 204k, after falling to 209k in the week of July 6. Claims should average 215k in July, down from 222k in June and a 217k in May.

* Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to rebound to 6.0 in July from -8.6 in June, which marked a 33-month low for the series. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.

Support and Resistance levels

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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