EUR and GBP need drivers for growth
Review of the past week
The past week, quotes of Eur/Usd, Gpb/Usd and Yen/Usd pairs grew.
We will traditionally start from the review of Eur/Usd. Core event of the week for the united European currency was GDP report for the 3rd quarter published on Thursday, 14th of November. As we expected, the data was just little worse than forecasts, on the point of 0.1% per quarter. GDP reports for the 3rd quarter were also published for the leading economies of Euro zone: German, French and Italian. All countries showed decline against the 2nd quarter, in particular, Italian data stands out. GDP of this country gives negative data for as long as 9 months in succession! On the background of such negative data, Euro weakened down to the point of 1.3418. However, weak data on the trade balance and industry output of the US let Eur/Usd quotes grow to the 35 figure and trade week closed at the point of 1.3495.
The speech of the future FRS Chief Janet Yellen in the Senate Banking Committee also must be mentioned, where she told that now it is not the time to curtail QE3and it is required to wait until the economy steps into the phase of sustainable development. This factor added to growth of the European currency.
Over the past trading week, the British Pound was at risk, further to release of weak inflation data. Consumer Price Index dropped down to 2.2%. The last time such weak data was received in September, 2012. On this background, quotes declined to the point of 1.5853. However, the next day the pair started a confident upward movement. As we mentioned in our previous week review, British currency demonstrated its strength. On Wednesday, 13th of November, Bank of England presented its quarter report on inflation. It raised forecast on growth of the UK economy and it the possibility of the interest rate increase in the end of 2014 under reach of target level of unemployment was also stated.
Investors reacted positively and started active openings of long positions on Gpb/Usd. Trade week closed at the point of 1.6119, near to strong resistance level.
Participants of trades with Yen/Usd managed to reach the point of 100.00. Over the last two weeks, bears actively resisted, but bulls overwhelmed at last. Japanese GDP for the third quarter showed decline, but is above expectations. Japanese currency neglected this report and investors focused on Janet Yellen's speech in the Senate Banking Committee. Future FRS chief stated that it is necessary to remain current monetary policy unchanged within near months, which encouraged bulls to open long positions. Growth of Nikkei 225 stock index over the entire week also added to optimism of bulls and Yen/Usd closed the week at the point of 100.19.
Forecast for 18 – 22 November at Freshforex web-site