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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 14 - 18, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged, at the same level of 0%. The euro had a chance to somewhat weaken its position against the dollar. However, it missed it due to the ECB's decision to ramp up the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by another €500bn and a subsequent comment from the head of that bank Christine Lagarde. Actually, there was nothing unexpected in this decision, we predicted such an outcome a week ago. In addition, it definitely fell into the middle of the market participants' forecast of €400-600 billion. But it was precisely this predictability that prevented the EUR/USD pair from turning south.
The hawkish sentiment of Christine Lagarde's statements also supported the European currency. It appears she tried to lower the euro rate by announcing that the ECB is closely monitoring the euro. However, the decision of the regulator not to interfere in the affairs of the foreign exchange markets influenced investors much more than a simple statement about “monitoring the exchange rate”. And the unexpectedly hawkish remark of Ms. Lagarde that if the situation with the Eurozone economy improves enough, it may not be necessary to use all these €500 billion, put the final end to the efforts of the bears to move the pair south.
As a result, having dropped to the level of 1.2060, the pair rushed to the north again, rising to the height of 1.2165, and completed the five-day period in the middle of this range, in the 1.2113 zone, practically in the same place where it started on Monday;

- GBP/USD. The weakening pound has outpaced the weak dollar. The British currency slid down as the threat of a "hard" Brexit becomes more evident. The latest statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggest that there will be no real agreement on the terms of Britain's separation from the EU. Johnson advised his citizens to prepare for a "tough" exit, von der Leyen said about the same.
It is worth emphasizing the word "real" here, since some agreement may still be reached, and we will not see the "iron curtain" blocking the tunnel under the Channel. Neither side needs it, much less at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most likely, the document that will be called the "Agreement", will have many blank spots left, which the parties will start filling in as early as 2021. But such an inferior contract will definitely not benefit the pound. The proof of this is what happened to the GBP/USD pair last week.
From the high of Friday 04 December to the low of Friday 11 December, the pound lost more than 400 points! And this despite the fact that the pair did not follow the EUR/USD in the wake, as it was until recently, but began to live a completely independent life. Having reached the local bottom at 1.3135 on Friday December 11 afternoon, it managed to win back about 90 points by the evening, putting the final chord at the level of 1.3225. However, this bounce may well turn out to be just a small correction in the pair's tendency to the south;

- USD/JPY. Due to the rise in risk sentiment, investors have lost interest in such protective assets as the dollar and the yen. As a result, these currencies reached a temporary truce and moved to a sideways trend. However, the pair never went beyond the medium-term channel, along which it has been smoothly sliding south since the end of March. And, giving a forecast for last week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, suggested that the lateral movement with bearish sentiment dominance would be continued.
In general, everything happened like that. The pair continued to move eastward, gradually reducing the amplitude of oscillations to the range of 103.85-104.55 and forming a medium-term “pennant” figure with the main support around 103.65. As for the end of the trading session, the finish was set at 104.00 this time;

- cryptocurrencies. Financial conglomerate Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" US banks, has published a new investment report, in which a separate page under the heading "Bitcoin - 2020's best performing and most volatile asset" is devoted to the cryptocurrency market. The authors do not directly encourage clients to invest in digital assets, but generally maintain an optimistic tone regarding their prospects. “Over the past 12 years, they have grown from literally nothing to a $560 billion market cap,” writes Wells Fargo. "Hobbies don't usually last 12 years."
The bank notes that bitcoin is up 170% over the year but warns about its high volatility. “Investing in cryptocurrencies today is akin to living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush, which involved more speculation than investing”, the bank's analysts think. And yet they add that cryptocurrencies attract a lot of attention, but not necessarily a lot of investment. (Here the title of William Shakespeare's play immediately comes to mind: "Much Ado About Nothing").
It is difficult to disagree with this: the total cryptocurrency market capitalization now is far from even its own high at the beginning of January 2018, $830 billion. And this is in a world where, according to billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, "there is a $90 trillion stock market, and God knows how many trillions are in fiat currency."
The crypto market went down another $50 billion last week: starting from $575 billion, it dropped to $525 billion. Optimists call the clear bearish trend a seasonal correction and associate it with the end of the year and the desire of investors to fix profits after such an impressive leap up. Recall that the BTC/USD pair was never able to overcome the $20,000 mark. And analysts estimated that it will be able to gain a foothold above this iconic level by the end of December, as 30% probability. The likelihood of its fall to the $15,000-15,700 zone is estimated at the same 30%.
In the meantime, the bears were able to lower quotations to $17,600, and they did it twice: on December 09 and 11. And also twice, at the time of these failures, buyers came to the rescue of bitcoin. However, they did not manage to radically reverse the trend, and as of Friday evening, December 11, bitcoin is trading in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of $18,000.
It should be noted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined very slightly in seven days, from 92 to 89, still signaling the pair BTC/USD is strongly overbought, which could portend an even deeper correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The dollar is weakening. It has conceded more than 550 points to the European currency in the last month and a half alone. Finally, the pair moved to a sideways movement in the range of 1.2060-1.2165 last week. And although most oscillators (75%) and trend indicators (95%) are still green on D1, the market is waiting for a downward correction.
If you look at the statistics of a number of leading UK brokers, about 65% of their traders hold short positions. 55% of analysts agree with them as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1, predicting a decline of the pair to the zone 1.1965-1.2010. Both a sharp drop in demand for risky assets and a "hard" Brexit can push it south.
However, given the cautious optimism of the ECB regarding the recovery of the European economy, the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the EU countries and the general weakness of the dollar, many experts believe that the pair will again move north after the correction, to the highs of the 1st quarter of 2018 in the zone of 1.2400-1.2565. Apart from analysts, the possibility of such a scenario is also confirmed by the readings of graphical analysis. And the resistance here is likely to be the round levels 1.2200 and 1.2300.
As for the events of the coming week, it is worth paying attention to the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as well as on the US consumer market on Wednesday 16 December. But the most interesting events await us on Thursday 17 December, when, in addition to the US Fed's interest rate decision, the Summary of Economic Forecasts from the Open Markets Committee of the Fed will be published and a press conference of the leadership of this organization will take place.

- GBP/USD. We will have a lot of macro-statistics regarding the UK in the coming week. Data on the labor market of this country will be released on Tuesday, December 15, consumer prices and business activity in the services sector (Markit) will be published the next day, and a meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, December 17, where decisions will be taken both on the interest rate and on the planned volume of asset purchases. However, all these events pale in front of the threat of a "hard" Brexit. It is precisely what happens at the negotiating table between the UK and the EU that will decide the fate of the pound.
A message should be issued on the state of the negotiation process, either its termination or continuation, on Sunday, December 13. The softest (and most realistic) option would be to extend the current conditions of the transition period for another six months or a year in order to gradually move to rules similar to the basic rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, although the downward trend of the pair would have continued, it would have been possible to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the British currency. The nearest support level in this case is 1.3100, then 1.3000 and 1.2850.
The second option is the “hardest” Brexit, without any agreements and prolongations, which will lead the pair to fall to the values of mid-May 2020 in the area of 1.2075 or even to the March low at 1.1420.
There is, of course, a third, most improbable, option in which the EU suddenly gives up its positions and completely yields to the British demands. In this case, we will see a rise of the pound first to the height of 1.3500, and then perhaps to the highs of 2018 in the area of 1.4350. Although, we repeat, this outcome is rather from the field of fiction;

- USD/JPY. The yen expects that the market's appetite for risk investments will finally recoil, and it will again turn its attention to the haven currencies. But that's what the dollar awaits too. The chance for the Japanese currency may be a "hard" Brexit, as a result of which investors will start fleeing from the euro and the pound. But what "safe haven" they will give preference to, the dollar or the yen, is another question.
85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are still painted red, waiting for a further fall of the pair within the downward medium-term channel, the beginning of which was at the end of March. Supports are 103.65 and 103.15.
But the average forecast of experts is very different from the indicators. 90% of them, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, prefer the dollar and expect that the pair will first rise to the upper boundary of this channel in the area of 104.60, and then, breaking through it, the resistance of 105.00 will be tested. Although, it is entirely possible that before the onset of the new year, 2021, neither bulls nor bears will make sharp movements, and the pair will continue its sideways movement, consolidating in the 104.00 zone;
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- cryptocurrencies. So, a correction or a repeat of the collapse of the late 2017-2018? The question is still open.
Bloomberg experts believe that there is no reason for a change in the direction of bitcoin's movement now, and its cost may increase to $50,000 in 2021. “The dollar is gradually losing its position, ducking other fiat currencies,” writes this authoritative agency, “All this is noticed by investors who are forced to switch to alternative assets.” Bitcoin has significantly more support now, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback. Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market has exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.
A similar point of view is followed by the American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, head of Tudor Investment Corporation, who said that “cryptocurrencies are facing a crazy flight on a rocket with ascents and descents along the way.” “In 20 years, bitcoin will be significantly higher than the point where it is now. From here, the road for it lies north,” Yahoo! Finance quoted him.
But Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz is less optimistic. In his opinion, bitcoin will certainly not return to zero, but may fall to the $14,000 mark. Therefore, although the losses of investors will not reach 80-90%, they may well be about 30-40%.
The report of the fintech company Cindicator is of great interest. This is due to the fact that the figures presented in it are not the opinion of individual specialists, but the average results of the survey of more than 156,000 participants of the crypto market, according to which bitcoin next year will rise to $29,569. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", on average expect even greater growth, to $32,056. As for the lower bar, according to the average forecast, it is at $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decline to $12,000.
Cindicator's “hybrid intelligence”, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, predicts similar values, only in a narrower range. According to its calculations, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222 and will not fall below $16,000. At the same time, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 with a probability of 80% will surpass the 2018 record of $828 billion.
In addition to institutional investors, additional serious support for the crypto market in 2021 should be provided by countries with troubled economies and those under sanctions. As of now, the SWIFT International Banking System, together with the Financial Crimes Agency (FinCEN) and the Financial Anti-Money Laundering Development Group (FATF), control each international transaction in dollars. Because of this, the countries that have come under the sanctions are deprived of the opportunity for international trade and are literally forced to turn to cryptocurrencies. So, for example, Venezuela, which at first paid in gold, has now switched to settlements for imports with Turkey and Iran in bitcoins. At least this is evidenced by anonymous sources from the Central Bank of this country.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews

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- The number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance has approached the mark of 33 million, updating the historical maximum, according to the data of the analytical service Glassnode. The number of wallets with a balance of more than 1 BTC is also steadily growing. The indicator has set a new record at 827,105 recently, recovering from a slight recession at the end of September. According to analysts, such an increase in the number of retail cryptocurrency users clearly indicates the massive adoption of bitcoin.

- Also, the “population” of bitcoin whales grew significantly in 2020 and peaked at 2274 at the end of last month. These data were shared by Philip Gradwell, a senior economist at Chainalysis analytics company. Since the beginning of the year, the category “1000 BTC and more” has grown by 302 new wallets. The balances at the respective addresses have increased by 1.4 million BTC during this time.

- Millennials, young people who were born at the turn of the millennium, believe in bitcoin and see it as an asset preparing to replace fiat money. According to Zach Prince, CEO of cryptocurrency startup BlockFi, they will be the ones who will change the industry and popularize cryptocurrencies. “However, I do not think that the dollar or the euro will completely disappear, but cryptocurrencies have every chance to become their full replacement,” he said.
Speaking at the BlockShow conference, Prince also called promising ways to develop the cryptocurrency industry. According to him, decentralized finance should try to establish communication with regulators, but not make full concessions. If we introduce complete regulation of the market, then it will hardly differ from fiat.

- Despite the rise in the price and popularity of bitcoin over the past few months, it is still far from widespread attention. A poll conducted by Opinium and AltFi asked 2,000 UK adults how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected their financial situation. The majority said they turned to digital investment having refrained from investing in physical assets. However, only 10% of this sample (or 200 people) specified that they bought cryptocurrencies.
Despite the fact that this percentage is relatively small, the results of 2020 can be regarded as an undeniable improvement: the figure was half as low, 5.3%, a year ago.

- US billionaire Ray Dalio admitted that the criticism of cryptocurrencies that had been heard from him earlier was unfounded. "Bitcoin is well suited for portfolio diversification," said the billionaire. “I would advise having cryptocurrencies among the assets, at least as an experiment. When it comes to comparing bitcoin to gold, I prefer to keep those assets that are important to the global economic system." Earlier, Dalio said that bitcoin can complement gold thanks to an expanded list of options that are available to cryptocurrency investors. A coin backed by the precious metal could be the best investment on the market, he said.

- European electricity supplier CEZ Group has uncovered the largest theft in its history. Together with the police, the company's specialists discovered equipment for the extraction of cryptocurrencies illegally connected to the power grids in one of the outbuildings in the Bulgarian village of Kherakovo. The inspection began due to the abnormal high consumption of electricity in the area. As a result of searches, law enforcement officers seized more than 1,000 mining units. Preliminary estimates suggest the stolen electricity was equivalent to a monthly consumption of 4,250 families.

- Bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has reiterated his call to buy bitcoin before it surpasses $20,000. He is convinced that the cryptocurrency will continue to grow to $50,000 next year amid the influx of money from institutions. The entrepreneur says that “America is in trouble” and preclude the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin and entrepreneurs.

- The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits that his outlook sounds extremely optimistic and even somewhat amusing for some investors. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says that he sold part of the reserves of the first cryptocurrency back in 2013. He said he had “only a few thousand dollars of net equity” before Ethereum was created. “However, I sold half of my bitcoins to be sure I would not break up if the rate fell to zero,” he writes. This admission was accompanied by Buterin's call not to get into debt or take out loans to buy any digital assets.

- According to analysts of financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds to invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin.
As JPMorgan lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted, the recent $100 million investment by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company marks another milestone in the adoption of the first cryptocurrency by such organizations. At the same time, the analyst admits that it is quite difficult for such traditional investors to invest in cryptocurrency, since there are still regulatory requirements for the choice of investment assets in terms of risks and fulfillment of obligations. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.
In early December, JPMorgan Payments Manager Takis Georgakopoulos said the bank has become more loyal to bitcoin and is ready to contribute to the development of the cryptocurrency industry.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Stock Trading Is Now Available on Fix, Pro and Zero Accounts



The line of the brokerage company NordFX trading accounts was supplemented by the new Stocks account last December, intended for transactions involving the shares of the world's largest companies. Due to favorable trading conditions, this account has gained considerable popularity over the past time, and therefore it has been decided to include CFD trading of shares in the list of trading instruments on the Fix, Pro and Zero accounts.

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Now the company's clients do not need to open a separate account for these operations, since the trading terms and contract specifications on the Fix, Pro and Zero accounts will be exactly the same as they were on the Stocks account.

Trading on the Stocks account will be discontinued. At the same time, previously opened trade orders remain in effect until the client decides to complete these transactions.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 21 - 25, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the most popular strategy in the market after “buy shares” is “sell the dollar”. Speculative short positions in this currency have risen to a two-year high. The USD index (DXY) has fallen below 90, while it was at 102.82 on March 15, 2020. As for the retreat of the dollar in recent days, it is taking place against the background of the discussion in the US Congress of an additional package of fiscal stimuli. After all, every new dollar poured into the country's economy will lead to a decrease in its purchasing power.
The Federal Reserve meeting held on Thursday, December 17 had virtually no effect on market sentiment. The interest rate remained at the same level, and, one might say, a blissful pre-Christmas mood prevailed at the press conference: nothing new was said about the prospects for further quantitative easing and no worries about the current state of the economy were voiced. Although, perhaps, such passivity was caused not only by Christmas, but also by the change of the US President. The new owner has not yet settled in the White House. And the old one is already a duck lame on both legs.
True, thanks to the hopes of investors for the future growth of the S&P500 and for a positive outcome of the Brexit negotiations, the EUR/USD pair still continued its movement northward, adding about 140 points in a week. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2250;

- GBP/USD. With the weakening USD and hopes that the Brexit talks will succeed at the last moment, the pair continues to push higher. At the week's high, December 17, it reached 1.3625, showing a gain of as much as 400 points. However, then a correction followed, and it completed the five-day period just below the level of 1.3500.
Belief in the deal is fueled by media reports that the fishing problem in British waters remains the last hurdle. The markets were encouraged by the statements of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said that there is a "narrow path" to the agreement, as well as European Commissioner for Internal Trade Michel Barnier, who confirmed that "the possibility of a trade agreement remains."
Britain also seems to agree to the deal, but, as it was stated, "not at the cost of sovereignty, and control should include the sea as well." Prime Minister Boris Johnson has threatened to keep European fishermen out of British waters for at least eight years if his three years quota fishing proposal is not accepted.
In general, Hamlet's question “To be or not to be?”, which has been sounding for 420 years, as applied to Brexit, is still open;

- USD/JPY. The yen is stable, US Treasuries remain in the same trading range, the dollar is weakening, the USD (DXY) index is falling. All this allows the USD/JPY pair to continue its smooth descent within the downstream medium-term channel, which began at the end of last March. On Thursday December 17, it reached the midline of this channel, fixing a weekly low at 102.85. The last point in the five-day period was set at 103.30;

- cryptocurrencies. What has been expected from bitcoin for three whole years has come true. It not only renewed the all-time high, not only broke through the $20,000 level, but also soared in a short period from December 12 to 17 from $18,000 to $23,620, adding more than 30%.
If we compare the rallies in December 2017 and December 2020, the main difference between them, according to many experts, is that in the first case, the main driving force was retail investors, but now it is institutional. According to the analytical company Chainalysis, the "population" of bitcoin whales (1000 BTC and more) has been expanded with 302 new wallets since the beginning of the year and peaked at 2274 at the end of last month, and balances at the corresponding addresses increased by 1.4 million BTC during this time.
To be fair, it should be noted that the number of retail users is also growing. The number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance has approached the mark of 33 million, updating the historical maximum, according to the data of the analytical service Glassnode. The number of wallets with a balance of more than 1 BTC is also steadily growing. The indicator has set a new record at 827,105 recently, recovering from a slight recession at the end of September.
Of course, we have written about this many times, the coronavirus pandemic contributed to the popularization of bitcoin. However, it is probably early to talk about the mass acceptance of cryptocurrencies by the population. So, in a survey conducted by Opinium and AltFi among UK residents, only 10% said they bought a cryptocurrency. And although the results of 2020 can be viewed as an undoubted improvement - a year ago the figure was half as much, 5.3% - it is still a very small percentage, which leaves significant potential for growth in the crypto market, the total capitalization of which reached $670 billion on December 17.
It should be noted that despite the fact that BTC/USD quotes have already by far exceeded the high of 2017, the capitalization has not reached its record value of $830 billion, recorded on 07 January 2018. That is, the rise in the value of bitcoin is fueled by significantly smaller amounts of fiat than before, which may indicate the pair is strongly overbought. This is evidenced by the values of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which rose again in seven days from 89 to 95 and is very close to the maximum value of 100 points. But while waiting for a correction, one should take into account that the end of the year is now, the Christmas holidays are coming, and the most unexpected things can happen on the thin market - from zero volatility to new spikes to the north;


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Next week on Thursday, December 24, Forex trading will end at 17:00 CET, and there will be no trading at all on December 25, Christmas. (please visit the NordFX website, the Company News section for details on the trading schedule during the Christmas and New Year holidays in the currency and cryptocurrency markets, as well as on CFD contracts).
The end of the year is a period when big players close their positions, sum up and go on vacation. But it is at this point of low liquidity in the market, as already mentioned above, that traders need to be prepared for sudden surprises. And it is not necessary that they will be as pleasant as gifts from Santa Claus. The main surprise may be the agreement between the EU and the UK on the Brexit terms (or lack thereof).
At the time of this writing, 95% of the trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are green. Also, 75% of oscillators on both timeframes look up. However, the remaining 25% signals that the pair is overbought, and a correction is possible.
Graphical analysis on H4 predicts the movement of the pair in the trading range of 1.2175-1.2300, and D1 indicates the possibility of its growth to the height of 1.2355. 80% of experts support this development. The remaining 20% expect the pair to decline to support 1.2100, and in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 65%. Closest supports are at 1.2055 and 1.1900 levels.
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- GBP/USD. As we wrote last week, there are three possible options regarding Brexit.
1 - neutral soft. It is a decision to extend the current terms of the transition period for another six months or a year in order to gradually move to rules similar to the basic rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, a catastrophic collapse of the pound would be avoided, although the pair would go south. The nearest support level in this case is 1.3275, then 1.3100, 1.3000 and 1.2850.
2 - the “hardest” Brexit, without any agreements or prolongations, which will lead the pair to fall first to the 1.2700 horizon, and over time, possibly to the lows of May 2020. in the area of 1.2075-1.2160.
3 - the conclusion of a full-scale deal between the EU and the UK. In this case, we will see a rise of the pound first to the height of 1.3500, and then perhaps to the highs of 2018 in the area of 1.4350.
We will know soon which of these options will be chosen;

- USD/JPY. 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still colored red, expecting further decline in the pair within the descending medium-term channel. As for analysts, they, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, they consider most likely the pair to move in the trading range 102.70-104.00, that is, between the central and upper boundaries of the designated channel;

- cryptocurrencies. So, is it worth waiting for a repeat of the "crypto winter" of late 2017 - 2018? Or, after a slight correction, the BTC/USD pair will again rush to new heights?
Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki is convinced that cryptocurrency will continue to rise to $50,000 next year amid further influx of institutional money. The entrepreneur, having said that “America is in trouble”, precludes the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin.
The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits that his outlook sounds extremely optimistic and even somewhat amusing for some investors. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.
According to analysts from the financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires that American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin.
As JPMorgan lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted, the recent $100 million investment by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company marks another milestone in the adoption of the first cryptocurrency by such organizations. At the same time, the analyst admits that it is quite difficult for such traditional investors to invest in cryptocurrency, since there are still regulatory requirements for the choice of investment assets in terms of risks and fulfillment of obligations. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.
In general, the topic of the attitude of government regulators to cryptocurrencies is one of the key factors for the development of this market. This issue has been actively discussed at the recent BlockShow conference. The speakers said that although decentralized finance needs to communicate with regulators, it cannot be full concessions to them. If we introduce complete regulation of the market, then it will hardly differ from fiat.
Now about the prospects of the BTC/USD pair for the next few weeks. According to the average forecast, the probability of its rise to $25,000-26,000 is estimated at 30%, above $30,000 - 10%. As for the fall, the probability that the pair will decrease to the $18.500-20,000 zone is 20%.
As for altcoins, those who at this stage are wary of investing in bitcoin may pay attention to ethereum. If BTC has already exceeded its 2017 high by 16%, then ETH is still to grow from its current values in the region of $670 to its all-time high of $1,420. And this despite the fact that this main altcoin showed better dynamics than bitcoin this year: it has added 640% from the March low against 465% for BTC.
In addition, altcoin blockchain No.1 has recently been updated. Ethereum 2.0 has made the cryptocurrency safer, more efficient, scalable and, hopefully, potentially more profitable.
And here it is necessary to recall the recent warning of the co-founder of ethereum Vitalik Buterin, who urged not to get into debt or take out loans to buy any digital assets, be it bitcoin, ethereum or any other coins. He said he had “only a few thousand dollars of net equity” before Ethereum was created. “However, I sold half of my bitcoins to be sure I would not break up if the rate fell to zero,” he writes.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews

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- Matt Maley, strategist at financial services firm Miller Tabak, believes the cryptocurrency market will face a major setback next year. According to him, the main coin may fall in price by about 25-30 percent in the first months of 2021
Bitcoin's capitalization currently stands at approximately $441 billion. According to Maley, the market is overheated due to large-scale investments, which is why corrections by one or several thousand dollars may become a norm next year.
“I consider cryptocurrencies to be a promising asset, but the minimum correction size next year will be 10%. At the same time, the fall may be at the level of 30% or even more. Therefore, it is worth being prudent before large-scale investments,” the specialist warns.

- Popular analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, expressed an opposite view. In his opinion, the December rise does not mean that the market is "overheated", and a large-scale collapse awaits us. “We are at the very beginning of the period of massive entry of investors into the crypto sphere. This phase of the industry's development is qualitatively different from the rise and fall phases of 2017 and 2018. If demand continues to rise from current levels, and supply is constrained, then there is a possibility that we will see growth of 250% or more."
At the same time, Mati Greenspan excludes a scenario in which BTC will soar to $400,000. “The rally will certainly continue, but there is no need to talk about any astronomical figures yet,” the analyst summed up.

- 190 computers were stolen from the NATO military airbase in Emari (Estonia), which were illegally used to extract cryptocurrency. The Estonian Ministry of Defense reported that mining on the territory of the base was carried out by a certain employee who had access to classified documents. He worked for NATO for 14 years, after which he quit and decided to take the equipment with him. He took out the first computers from the base back in 2015, providing documents on their write-off. The remaining several dozen devices on the territory of Emari were networked and used for mining. In total, this "specialist" was able to mine cryptocurrencies worth 30,000 euros. The Ministry of Defense clarified that about 60% of these earnings would have gone to pay for electricity, but the attacker was using state resources.

- According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of addresses with cryptocurrency worth more than $1,000,000 has reached 66,500. The increase in the second decade of December alone was about 150%. Analysts noted that some miners have not withdrawn funds from their wallets since the time when one pizza cost several hundred bitcoins. Now they have become dollar millionaires.

- Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk once again spoke on Twitter regarding cryptocurrencies. There, he again confessed his love for Dogecoin and posted a frivolous picture, comparing bitcoin to fiat money and considering it "the same crap."
Recall that in 2019, Musk became the winner of a comic April Fools' poll, in which users were asked to vote for the most suitable candidate for the position of Dogecoin CEO. And last July, Musk spoke on Twitter about the prospect of using Dogecoin technology as a global financial system. After his tweet, the price of the token went up 17%.

- The legendary bitcoin meme HODL is seven years old. It was first used by a user under the nickname GameKyuubi in his post on the BitcoinTalk forum, who later became known as Mr.HODL. On December 18, 2013, being a little drunk by his own admission, he wrote that as a bad trader he prefers to “hodl” so as not to incur financial losses.
“I typed the title twice because I made a mistake the first time. Still a mistake. A girlfriend is stuck in a lesbian bar, bitcoin is falling, so why do I hold? I'll tell you why. Because I'm a bad trader and I know it. Yes, of course, you good traders can see the highs and lows and playfully make a million dollars,” GameKyuubi wrote at the time.
On that day Bitcoin fell in price by almost 40%, GameKyuubi tried to simultaneously talk to his girlfriend and trade bitcoin through a heavily lagging app. After several failed attempts, he went to his room and started drinking.
Hodl, Hodler, is an Internet meme, a slang name for those who buy cryptocurrencies and hold them (do not sell) regardless of the market situation. For the first time, this variant of the spelling appeared as a typo in the word holding.

- MicroStrategy, a mobile software company, announced the completion of the last stage of the allocation of reserve assets, during which it invested $650 million raised from investors into 29.646 BTC at an average of $21.925 per coin.
It now owns almost 70,470 bitcoins in total, having spent $1.125 billion at an average price of $15.964 per bitcoin.
The $650 million raised in December was raised through the sale of convertible bonds with a maturity of five years. “The purchase of additional coins confirms our confidence in bitcoin as the most widely used cryptocurrency and a reliable store of value,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy.

- Mill Hill Books has released a 340-page book, Kicking the Hornet's Nest, containing all emails, forum posts, and other entries by the anonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. All entries are collected in chronological order and, according to the publishers, have been published "with almost no editorial comment." The printed version of the edition sells for $29, and it can also be purchased on Amazon.

- Scott Minerd, investment director of Guggenheim Investments, considers bitcoin to be a grossly undervalued asset, even at current price levels of around $23,000. “Our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about $400,000,” he said in a conversation with Bloomberg TV.
Analysts at Guggenheim Investments came to this conclusion based on two factors: the limited emission of bitcoin and its value relative to gold. There are many common characteristics that cryptocurrency shares with the precious metal, Minerd said, but bitcoin, unlike gold, "has extraordinary value in the context of transactions."
At the same time, Minerd noted that buying bitcoin above $20,000 seems to him "a little more problematic." His company began investing in bitcoin at a rate of about $10,000.


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Stan NordFX
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Happy New Year, 2021!


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Dear clients and partners! We extend our warmest congratulations on the upcoming holidays.

The outgoing 2020 turned out to be not the easiest one for most of us, requiring resilience, a lot of effort and energy. It has been a difficult time, but we are confident that together we can overcome any difficulties.

Let the coming year be the year of new joint victories and achievements. Let all adversity and troubles remain behind us, and only prosperity and success lie ahead.

Let all your hopes and dreams come true in the new year. We wish you and all your loved ones good health, prosperity, endless joyful smiles, and optimism!

Happy New Year!
Stan NordFX
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Forecast 2021: Is Bitcoin Worth Investing In?



Is it the "gold of the XXI century" or a soap bubble about to burst? We have repeatedly discussed the advantages and disadvantages of bitcoin over the past year, and analyzed the reasons for its ups and downs. Therefore, we decided to cite only the opinions of experts regarding the prospects for the main cryptocurrency in this review.
You may decide to be patient and invest in bitcoin for a long-term profitability. Or, on the contrary, you do not want to take risks and prefer to forget this word altogether. In general, the decision to buy, sell bitcoin or simply do nothing is always yours.
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Optimists' predictions: Only to the North!

1. Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki is convinced that cryptocurrency will continue to rise to $50,000 next year amid further influx of institutional money. The entrepreneur, having said that “America is in trouble”, precludes the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin.
“Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”

2. According to analysts at the JPMorgan Chase banking holding, bitcoin outperforms gold as an alternative currency and has a significantly better chance of continued growth. According to their report, the capitalization of the crypto market is not large enough yet. JPMorgan estimates that the physical gold market, including ETF backed by it, is $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin needs to hit the $130,000 mark to catch up with the precious metal in this respect.
According to JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds to invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin. However, at the moment there are still regulatory requirements for the selection of investment assets in terms of risks and performance of obligations for such traditional investors. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.

3. The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits his forecast sounds extremely optimistic. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.
The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults. This leads to a supply shock and triggers a bull market.

4. Scott Minerd, investment director of Guggenheim Investments, considers bitcoin to be a grossly undervalued asset, even at current price levels of around $23,000. “Our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about $400,000,” he said in a conversation with Bloomberg TV.
Analysts at Guggenheim Investments came to this conclusion based on two factors: the limited emission of bitcoin and its value relative to gold. There are many common characteristics that cryptocurrency shares with the precious metal, Minerd said, but bitcoin, unlike gold, "has extraordinary value in the context of transactions."

5. Popular analyst and founder of Quantum Economics Mati Greenspan believes that “we are at the very beginning of a period of mass investor entry into the cryptosphere. If demand continues to rise and supply is constrained, then there is a possibility that we will see growth of 250% or more." At the same time, Mati Greenspan excludes a scenario in which BTC will soar to $400,000. “The rally will certainly continue, but there is no need to talk about any astronomical figures yet,” the analyst sums up. He believes that, unlike in 2017, the market is now controlled not by speculators but by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of these large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive.

6. Bloomberg experts believe that there is no reason for a change in the direction of bitcoin's movement now, and its cost may increase to $50,000 in 2021. “The dollar is gradually losing its position, ducking other fiat currencies,” writes this authoritative agency, “All this is noticed by investors who are forced to switch to alternative assets.” Bitcoin has significantly more support now, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback. Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market has exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.
Looking into the longer term, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone has suggested that within 5 years the price of the main cryptocurrency could exceed $100,000.

7. A similar point of view is followed by the American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, head of Tudor Investment Corporation, who said that “cryptocurrencies are facing a crazy flight on a rocket with ascents and descents along the way.” “In 20 years, bitcoin will be significantly higher than the point where it is now. From here, the road for it lies north,” Yahoo! Finance quoted him.

8. The report of the fintech company Cindicator is of great interest. This is due to the fact that the figures presented in it are not the opinion of individual specialists, but the average results of the survey of more than 156,000 participants of the crypto market, according to which bitcoin next year will rise to $29,569. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", expect even greater growth on average, to $32,056.
According to the calculations of the “Hybrid Intelligence” Cindicator, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222.

9. According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait for five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote.

10. According to experts of Stack Funds, bitcoin is ready to rise to a new high of $86,000.

11. The Director General of Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made a bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 in a year and placed an order for the sale of all the gold he had in order to invest in BTC and ETH in the ratio 80 to 20.

12. Even more inspiring forecast was given by Gemini crypto exchange founder Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who are called the first cryptocurrency billionaires. He said on CNBC that the value of bitcoin could exceed the $500,000 mark.
"The question isn't whether bitcoin will cost $500,000 or not, the question is how quickly it will happen. In fact, even this assessment seems to me very conservative - the game has not really even started," said Tyler's brother Cameron Winklevoss.

13. A similar figure is also called by a member of the Board of Directors of the Bitcoin Foundation Bobby Lee, according to whom the price of the main coin can reach $500,000 by the year 2028.

14. According to experts from one of the shareholders of Tesla, the ARK Invest fund, the capitalization of bitcoin may exceed $5 trillion. This will take the coin up to 10 years, but massive investments can start earlier. This figure could reach $1 trillion in the next 5 years, after which growth will occur at a faster rate.

15. A forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. According to him, thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." And further he concludes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the background of the coronavirus pandemic have led to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s, when the dollar inflation led to the increased demand for gold.

16. Popular TV presenter and Wall-Street veteran Max Kaiser believes that at current levels, bitcoin futures traders are suppressing the price of BTC to give institutional players a chance to "load the boat." However, once the asset reaches the $28,000 mark (the intermediate benchmark set by Kaiser), the number of coins for sale will go zero, and thanks to the deficit, their price will burst up to the cosmic heights.
“For the poor of this world, the current price and availability of BTC,” says Kaiser, “is the only opportunity in life to purchase non-forfeitable hard money before the price of it rises to 40-80 times, and prices will soar to the level of golden parity at around $400,000.”
“The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day. That's why I think people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins, since the price can soar even to $1,000,000 per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change...”


Pessimists' Predictions: A Fly in the Ointment

1. Despite the optimism in general, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that bitcoin instability can be expected in the near future. Its price in 2021 will certainly not return to zero, but could fall to the $14,000mark, or even $12,000. Although a correction to such levels is unlikely, investors need to be prepared for losses of 30-40%.

2. According to the average forecast of fintech company Cindicator, the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair in 2021 will be at the level of $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decrease to $12,000, and according to the calculations of “Hybrid Intelligence” Cindicator, the bitcoin rate will not go down next year below $16,000.

3. Matt Maley, strategist at financial services firm Miller Tabak, believes the cryptocurrency market will face a major setback next year. According to him, the main coin may fall in price by about 25-30 percent in the first months of 2021. According to Maley, the market is overheated due to large-scale investments, which is why corrections by one or several thousand dollars may become a norm.
“I consider cryptocurrencies to be a promising asset, but the minimum correction size next year will be 10%. At the same time, the fall may be at the level of 30% or even more. Therefore, it is worth being prudent before large-scale investments,” the specialist warns.



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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Support and Resistance Levels: Types, Methods of Construction, Usage Cases



Technical analysis in the Forex market provides a wide range of opportunities to study and predict prices. The number of instruments that are capable of solving the tasks set by the trader is hundreds. If the indicators are justifiably amenable to criticism for signal lagging, the levels of support and resistance find their admirers even among people most skeptical towards technical analysis. This is not surprising. Forex levels are a benchmark that all traders, without exception, pay attention to.

Levels are abnormal zones on the price chart, near which there are sharp changes in the dynamics of quotations. Thus, when the price approaches the levels, there is a noticeable response: bounces, reversals, breakouts, acceleration or deceleration of quotes . Since this happens with enviable consistency, the trader has the opportunity to create trading strategies based on such levels. Trading with their help becomes active, impulsive and allows you to fix a good profit in a short time frame.

The Reason Why Markup is Effective

Trading in the financial markets is carried out using a huge number of instruments. However, there are only two key areas in the analysis - technical and fundamental. Textbooks on them are written and regularly published in all languages of the world. This creates a unified learning base for all traders and investors. Therefore, guided by a similar algorithm of actions, the vast majority of traders will, like you, see Forex levels and push quotes in their direction.

In addition to the same algorithm of actions, do not forget about the convenience of calculations. For example, when a trader chooses a place to place Stop Loss , it is easier for them to focus on round levels. This is convenient, because in the heat of active trading there is no time for the perfect calculation of points - everything is rounded one way or another.

The third argument is monetary policy. Each head of the Central Bank and the government sets a price corridor, which is the basis of the budget. Out-of-bounds always result in the intervention of the regulator.

Types of Levels and Their Differences

There are many ways to calculate levels, and as a result, their types. If we generalize them conditionally, we can distinguish the following main groups: horizontal, sloping, dynamic. The key difference between them is in the way they are built, and the number of elements required for this.

Ways to Build Horizontal Levels

To do the markup, your trading platform must have drawing tools. Broker NordFX offers its clients to use the world's most popular platform - MetaTrader 4 (MT4). Its graphical toolkit, among other things, includes horizontal lines.

Resistance and support are built on historical points where rebounds have occurred more than once in the past. The support level is drawn through local lows, and the resistance level is drawn through local highs.

For many, the debatable question is at what prices to draw the line. There is no basic difference. The level is marked both by the body of the candle and by its shadow. There is a concept of a zone, so a deviation of several points is the norm. Moreover, the higher the timeframe, the wider this zone will be.

An example of how horizontal Forex levels are marked in Fig. 1:
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Sloping levels

These levels are no different from the previous ones, as far as their impact on price is concerned. The main difference is the angle of the lines. They are drawn at local lows/highs and completely depend on the direction of the trend. The main rule when applying is that the price should bounce. Two points are enough to draw this level. This is a simple geometric rule for drawing line segments.

In literature, they are also called the trend line. If you draw such lines parallel to each other, you can identify price channels. An example of one of them can be seen below in Fig. 2:
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They are used for only one purpose - to find the entry point. It is difficult to set price targets according to them. By the way, when working with sloping levels, the extremes should be consistent, namely, above each other (for an upward market) or below (for a downward one).

Dynamic

In the classical understanding, levels are manual markup. However, progress has gone far from the textbooks of the 80s and 90s of the last century. In addition to markup, indicator techniques are gaining popularity: Moving Average, Envelopes, Donchian Channel, Bollinger Bands.

Their main feature is that they are volatile and are rearranged following the price. This is both their strength and weakness.

The principles of building the horizontal and dynamic level are different, but the properties and principles of use are the same. As an example (Fig. 3), we propose to study the most famous of them, Moving Average, and working it out as a level:
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The Difference Between Support and Resistance

Beginners sometimes find it difficult to clearly define what support is, and mistakenly call it resistance, and vice versa. They have the same properties in terms of trade practice. Quotes bounce off them, and accelerate sharply after the breakout. However, the difference still exists: it is the position of the price relative to the level.

Support is the level that the price relies on during its movement. It connects important lows and occurs when traders can no longer, or do not want to sell this financial instrument at lower prices. Resistance, on the other hand, is a level that connects important highs (tops) of the market and stands in the way of growth, preventing the price from going up.

In both cases, it is important in what trend the markup is considered. They can change places during a breakout. An example of how support turns into resistance is shown below (Figure 4):
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How to Build Forex Support and Resistance Levels

You can build levels on charts of any timeframe in different ways. Professionals often and quickly do this manually using the auxiliary charting tools built into the MT4 terminal. However, it is difficult for beginners to find extremes. To simplify their detection, auxiliary indicators such as, for example, Fractals or ZigZag are used, which automatically highlight local lows/highs.

Pivot, Murray, Fibonacci formulas are also used to calculate support and resistance levels. They are implemented as separate user indicators. It should be noted that there are many other indicators that apply all types of markup without your involvement. Many of them are already integrated into MetaTrader 4, making market analysis much easier.

How Levels Are Used in a Trading Strategy

Patterns in price movements near support or resistance make it possible to use them for different purposes. One of the most important purposes in developing a trading strategy is the signal function. Trading in this case occurs both on a rebound from the level, and on its breakdown. There is also a mixed type of trading, which includes other signals for opening or closing positions as well.

The ways of trading at levels can be very different. Conservative trading , advocated by many textbook authors, involves working in the direction of the trend, while aggressive trading involves opening positions in both directions or against the trend. Each technique has a right to exist, but one should consider how strong the level is. The probability of a breakout of a strong level is extremely low, so rebounds are practiced in this case. Weak levels , which have only a couple of touches, are overcome by the price like a knife in butter. Therefore, the probability of a breakdown of a weak level is quite high. Although false breakouts often occur on Forex - cases when the price seems to have already overcome the support or resistance zone, but instead of going further, it turns back and returns to its previous positions.

At moments when the strength of traders playing to raise and lower the price is roughly equal, there can be price consolidation. If you see that the price is being squeezed like a spring - consolidation is there for you. And we can expect that at some point this spring will be open, which will lead to the appearance of a sharp impulse in the change in quotes and an increase in volatility.

Setting Stop Loss and Take Profit

According to many traders, a trading strategy without using Stop Loss is a time bomb. Beginners find it difficult to choose where to place it on the chart, because there is a possibility that the price will accidentally hook it. And it is very disappointing to see how your order closes with a loss by Stop Loss, after which the price will reverse and go in a direction that is profitable for you. That is why it is customary to place Stop Loss beyond the nearest level at a distance of several points from it. Recall that this distance depends on the timeframe you are working on. The higher the timeframe, the greater that distance must be. Thus, on the H4 time frame and above it is measured by dozens of points, forming not a line, but a support/resistance zone. It may also depend on the selected Forex currency pair, as well as the current volatility of the market.

Also, in addition to Stop Loss, levels are used to solve one more task - to determine a price target for profit fixing. Take Profit at the opened trade is placed on a similar principle, which is described above. However, it is put on the open order direction, rather than against it. And here, again, the concept of a zone must be taken into account, because just as the price can slip several points beyond the level (false breakout), the same few points will not reach it.

A huge number of trading strategies have been created at the support and resistance levels of Forex, the effectiveness of which is also influenced by a number of other factors. This is the accuracy of quotes, the size of spreads, the speed of execution of trades, etc. And here NordFX clients have an obvious advantage, since the trading conditions provided by this broker are among the best on the market.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Working on Forex support and resistance levels has a number of advantages and disadvantages. The cons of their use are as follows:
- The presence of false breakdowns;
- The presence of slippage (backlash), which turns a thin line into a support/resistance zone, the width of which depends on many factors: the currency pair being traded, the time frame and the current market situation. All this makes it difficult to set orders and to open and close a trading position.

The strengths of the levels are as follows:
- They have a lot of information about the dynamics of the market;
- They allow you to define the price corridor, the market entry and exit points;
- They are applicable on any timeframe and for any trading instrument;
- There are many charting tools and indicators that automatically determine these levels. Many of them are already integrated into the MT4 terminal;
- A huge number of ready-made solutions -­ scripts and robot advisors that allow you to conduct semi-automatic and fully automatic trading using data levels;
- Ability to include in any trading strategy;
- A large number of signals are generated on each timeframe.

Only practice can teach you how to use support and resistance levels effectively. And in order for you to gain the necessary experience without any financial costs, we recommend using a demo account of the NordFX brokerage company. It can be opened for free, and registration will take no more than a couple of minutes of your time.


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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews

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- Many experts agree that the value of bitcoin may reach $30,000 in the very near future. According to experts, the reason for this is the increased activity of "whales", who continue to make impressive investments in the cryptocurrency industry.
Experts from the analytical company CryptoQuant say that large investors are trying to keep funds in hardware wallets or distribute them between different platforms. The head of CryptoQuant, Ki-Young Joo, noted that this practice is being applied in the stock markets in anticipation of a major breakthrough. “I think that after the spurt [up to $ 30,000] there will be a pullback, the scale of which is very difficult to predict,” says Ki-Young Joo.
According to Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, such a correction will be no more than 15%, after which bitcoin will face another growth.

- Investor Dennis Hartman, also known as the "king of assets", said in an interview with Bloomberg that bitcoin could become the so-called "millennial gold." According to the specialist, he does not support cryptocurrency assets, however, he considers them to be the main prospect for the future.
According to the financier, central banks around the world will increase their control over digital currencies. Therefore, even if bitcoin remains a fully decentralized unit, it will only be allowed to circulate locally when centralized.
Also, according to Hartmann, despite the prospects for the main cryptocurrency, it may even collapse to zero. This will happen against the background of the introduction of industry regulation in the world community. Due to a number of restrictions, investors will simply stop investing in bitcoin, which will first affect its capitalization, and later on the value.

- The founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, noted on CNBC the strong position of bitcoin in the face of pressure from the current Trump team, which has not been able to stop the record growth of the main cryptocurrency.
In addition, the head of Galaxy Digital expressed the hope that financial regulators under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden will take a more loyal stance towards cryptocurrencies. “I hope that after the inauguration [January 20, 2021] we will get more progressive regulators. I will be happy to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework that supports rather than fights cryptocurrencies,” said Novogratz.

- The most secure strategy for investing in cryptocurrencies in 2021 will be the purchase and storage of a small portfolio of bitcoins and etheriums. This was stated by the head of the digital assets department of the Swiss online bank Swissquote Chris Thomas. In his opinion, these coins have long-term development potential.
In addition, a new form of digital money will appear in 2021, CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). According to the expert, one of the first countries to introduce such a state digital currency will be China. In Europe, Sweden can become such a country due to the high acceptance rate of such assets.

- Bitcoin miners' income has increased by 185% since the May halving. And now, according to the estimates of the analytical service Glassnode, the total earnings of all miners in the world is about $1 million per hour.
The experts noted that the last time miners earned so much from mining bitcoin was in July 2019. Then the coin traded in the range from $9k to $11k. But at that point, the BTC mining award was twice the current one.

Almost 20% of Australians own digital currencies at the moment, according to a survey conducted by the Independent Reserve crypto exchange. At the same time, more than 90% of respondents said that they knew about the existence of bitcoin and other virtual coins. Bitcoin turned out to be much more popular than any of the altcoins, among which respondents noted ETH, EOS, XRP and LTС.
As in the past year, the largest share of cryptocurrency holders is among people aged 25 to 34.

- Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital investment company, speaking on CNBC, called the limited supply of bitcoin as a key driver of growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. Currently, giants like PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than bitcoin miners can mine. “When we see that there are large institutional investors, each of whom buys more than 100% of the current issue of such assets, it pushes the price up,” explained Dan Morehead.
The market is nine weeks away from seeing bitcoin at $115,000, according to an estimate in December investment analytics from Pantera Capital.

- The world's largest crypto fund Grayscale published a report last Friday, which shows that the total amount of funds in the cryptocurrency under its control has reached $16.3 billion.
Analyst Kevin Rooke noted that this giant continued to buy up bitcoins even amid the recent consolidation of the crypto market. This clearly indicates that Grayscale is set for a long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currency.
At the moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated digital assets of $14.075 billion and $1.808 billion, respectively.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has attracted the attention of the community with his stance towards the first cryptocurrency. He called bitcoin the most stable investment in the outgoing, “volatile year” 2020. According to Suarez, Miami and South Florida should be “at the forefront of legislation” promoting digital assets and supported by innovation.
In his address, Suarez has also noted Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano saying Miami “is on track to become a bitcoin city.”

- Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin will rise from its current level to at least $40,000. And although the expert does not rule out the likelihood of downward corrections, he is confident that "the bull market for bitcoin will continue for a long time."
In addition, Michael van de Poppe is convinced that a strong rally will be observed in the altcoin market sooner or later, in particular on Ethereum. According to the expert, the rise in prices in the altcoin market will begin after the first quarter of next year.

- Ethereum capitalization has exceeded $79 billion. The CEO of the crypto exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao drew attention to the fact that ETH had already surpassed such auto giants as General Motors ($59.5 billion), BMW ($47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($36.2 billion) in terms of capitalization.
In 2021, capital inflows into ETH will be even more significant, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already concentrating exclusively on Ethereum. And the key event for this altcoin will be the launch of Ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME).


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Stan NordFX
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Forecast 2021: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar



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If someone asks which currency pair is the most important and most liquid on Forex, the answer will follow immediately. Even a beginner will say: “Of course, EUR/USD”. There is even nothing to doubt about this: the trading volume for this pair reaches $1.1 trillion per day. These currencies represent two of the world's most powerful economies, and the US dollar is the first most important reserve currency. Most central banks continue to store large volumes of their gold and foreign exchange reserves (over 60%) in US dollars. The euro comes in second with over 22%.

It should be noted that the dollar is gradually losing its positions, according to Bloomberg, its peak (45.3%) in global payments was in April 2015. Now, following the SWIFT statistics, the euro has managed, although not by much, to bypass the dollar. In October 2020, 37.8% of money transfers served by this system were in the euro, while the share of the dollar was 37.64%. (The British pound took the third place with a huge margin with 6.92%).

Despite the weakening US currency, it is certainly too early to bury the dollar. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) announced in the summer of 2020 that about 50% of cross-border loans and international bonds are denominated in USD. Finally, about half of all trade invoices in the world are issued in dollars, even for non-US trade.

And let's not forget that market analysts evaluate the strength of different currencies by looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY). In fact, this is a basket of monetary units of six countries, the value of which is compared with USD. And the euro takes the lion's share of 57.6% in it (the remaining 5 account for only 42.4%).

All the above statistics indicate unambiguously that EUR/USD is number 1 among the major pairs on Forex. It is this pair that sets the main trends for other currencies. And that is why it is necessary for every trader to know and understand whatever happened to it, is happening and will happen.


A Bit of History

Surprisingly, despite its importance, the EUR/USD pair is quite young. The euro appeared thanks to the creation of the European Union in 1992, first in non-cash form, and it was only on January 1, 1999 that it officially replaced the rest of the European currencies. A few more years passed and in June 2002 the EUR became the sole means of payment in the Eurozone, displacing the then favorite, the German mark (USD/DEM) from the pedestal.

This event was preceded by two others, which had an important influence on the formation of the subsequent EUR/USD exchange rate. The first is a cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in late 2000, and the second is a series of four coordinated terrorist attacks, the largest in the history of mankind, committed in the United States on September 11, 2001, including the destruction of the twin skyscrapers of the World Trade Center in New York. As a result, having started from the rate of 0.93 dollars per euro, by the middle of 2008 the pair rose to the level of 1.60. In other words, the dollar has lost more than 70% against the euro.

However, the European Central Bank (ECB) did not want to see the euro so strong, as it posed serious problems for European exports and dealt a blow to the trade balance. Therefore, verbal intervention began in the market. In addition, positive news constantly came from the United States regarding the state of the economy of this country, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair began to slide southward and recorded the low of the second decade of the 21st century near the 1.032 mark by the end of December 2016.

Many analysts then predicted a quick parity for the pair at the level of 1: 1, but this did not happen. And now the European currency is quoted in the area of 1.22 dollars per 1 euro.

What Happened: Year 2020

Exactly a year ago, we published forecasts given by experts from leading world banks regarding the EUR / USD rate for 2020, and now we can decide which of them was right and to what extent.

Thus, back in December 2019 analysts at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and a number of other banks reached consensus, predicting a fall in the US dollar in 2020. The main reason was the slowdown in global economic growth. In addition, it was predicted that on the eve of the presidential elections, the US Federal Reserve under pressure from Donald Trump will continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the current level.

Both of these forecasts proved to be absolutely correct. If at the end of 2019. the DXY dollar index fluctuated around 97, then after 12 months it fell below 90 points. The interest rate also went down: in December 2019 - January 2020 it was 1.75%, in early March it was lowered to 1.25%, and then completely dropped to 0.25%.

Recall that in December 2019, only the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Chinese Wuhan was recorded, and there was no idea of a global pandemic. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall. Colleagues from Citigroup were supported then by analysts at the Swiss bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world's largest investment companies, BlackRock. And this scenario also came true 100%, and the coronavirus pandemic only played the role of a catalyst for this process: almost a quarter of all existing dollars were released in just one past year.

Some conspiracy theorists argue that the coronavirus was deliberately invented to implement the plan of a secret world government and help the financial elite buy up the bulk of dollar liquidity on the cheap. But exposing all sorts of conspiracies is not the purpose of this review. Therefore, let us turn to specific figures and see whose forecast turned out to be the most accurate.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast of the largest market operators suggested that by the end of 2020, the US dollar wouldl "lose weight" by another 400-500 points, and the EUR/USD pair would rise to the 1.16 zone.

JPMorgan Chase specialists predicted the level of 1.14 for this pair for the end of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch called 1.15. And the German Deutsche Bank and the French Societe Generale pointed to the level of $1.20 per euro. The last two forecasts turned out to be the most accurate: the pair reached a high of 1.225 at the end of 2020. (Recall that all these scenarios did not take into account the consequences of the blow that COVID-19has inflicted on the economy).


What Will Happen: Year 2021

Some experts believe that for the United States, the onset of COVID-19 can be compared with the Third World War: more than 300,000 dead, a third of the working population is left without a constant source of income. The pandemic hit the country at the end of the 10-year economic growth cycle and in a presidential election year. Additional pressure on the economy was exerted by the trade wars that Donald Trump unleashed with China and Europe, as well as the growth of the dollar supply.

Most likely, in 2021, money will actively flow to Europe, and the dollar will face a deep devaluation. True, different analysts assess the depth of a possible fall in the USD differently.

So, for example, Goldman Sachs predicts a fall in the weighted USD rate in 2021 by only 6%, while Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to rise from current levels to 1.25. (By the way, the figure 1.25 also sounds in many other moderate forecasts).

But there are also those who predict a catastrophic fall in the American currency. Prominent economists, Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff and former Morgan Stanley Asia head and Fed Board member Stephen Roach estimate the likelihood of a dollar collapse in 2021 at 50%. At the same time, Roach believes that the devaluation of the dollar can reach 35%. A slightly smaller but also impressive devaluation of 20% is forecast by analysts at Citigroup. That is, in their opinion, we can see the EUR/USD pair in the 1.40-1.44 zone by the end of next year.

What can stop the dollar from falling?

Naturally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening. As of today, long-term inflation expectations have already jumped to 1.85%, which is not far from the regulator's target threshold of 2.0-2.5%. This inflation leads to the depreciation of the dollar. And at some point, lest the US currency collapse definitively, the Fed will be forced, albeit with great reluctance, to stop pumping the economy with cheap money and start a cycle of raising basic interest rates.

By the way, Europe, perhaps even more than the USA, is interested in stopping the growth of the EUR/USD pair.

Since mid-March 2020, the euro has strengthened against the dollar almost continuously. This is despite the fact that the ECB has printed over €2.2 trillion in a year and set negative interest rates.

There are calculations showing that a 10% strengthening of the euro is reducing Eurozone GDP by about 1%. And imagine that the EUR/USD pair will rise, as predicted in Citigroup, to the level of 1.40. Such growth would put all European exports at a blow. Who will then buy goods from the EU at rapidly rising prices?

The ECB already had a chance to weaken the euro against the dollar. However, this did not happen: the European regulator has decided not to interfere in the affairs of the foreign exchange markets and simply limit itself to "monitoring the exchange rate." But, according to many analysts, with the growth of the pair to levels around 1.25, the ECB will be forced to take very serious steps to limit the further growth of its currency. And it is quite possible that the next program of assistance to the EU economy in the amount of €2 or €3 trillion will be adopted in the near future. And in the wake of Europe, similar steps will be taken by the central banks of Great Britain, Canada, China and many other countries. And if 2019-2020 can be called the time of the World Trade Wars, then 2021 will be the time of the World Currency War.

Although ... most likely we will see both wars at the same time.

Happy New Year, 2021! It promises to be very interesting!



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews

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- The rise in the bitcoin price in recent months has shown that the first cryptocurrency can rise in price to $100,000 per coin, said the head of the American division of Binance Catherine Coley. In her opinion, this growth can be “accelerated” compared to what happened after the second halving in 2016. “We thought the $50,000 price was reasonable, but that number will definitely be slightly higher. I think that by the end of 2021 we will reach $75,000 - $100,000 per bitcoin,” the CEO of Binance.US believes.
More daring predictions for the BTC rate were made by Insider co-founder Henry Blodget and the CEO of the Kraken bitcoin exchange Jesse Powell: both named $1 million per coin. However, the former believes that this will happen thanks to speculators, while the latter relies on the growth of institutional investments in cryptocurrency.

- Investment bank JPMorgan has named a theoretical long-term target for the bitcoin price of $146,000. The millennial generation will drive adoption, JPMorgan says.
Experts believe that the image of an alternative to gold will make the first cryptocurrency even more popular. But this requires convergence of the volatility indicators of bitcoin and gold, and this is a "multi-year process."
JPMorgan's forecast is based on calculating the possible capitalization of bitcoin in the event of an inflow of funds, which are now in ETFs based on gold and in bullions. At the same time, analysts noted that already in October 2020, some outflow of funds from such ETFs and an inflow into Grayscale funds were recorded.

- Popular analyst Willie Woo believes that bitcoin is firmly entrenched above $20,000. In his opinion, we will no longer see the pullback of the cryptocurrency below this psychological mark.
Of particular importance is also the level of $24,000. After bitcoin crossed this milestone, it became clear that the market finally came under the control of investors who are inclined to long-term storage of cryptocurrency. If the coin keeps above $24,000, the number of its buyers will continue to grow.

- Analytics of Twitter posts show that as bitcoin sets new highs, social media interest in the digital currency is also setting new records. So, the number of unique messages about Bitcoin has reached 66,832, exceeding the previous high of 64,652 set during the 2017 bull run.

- The rise of bitcoin to $35,000 in recent days has led to the re-formation of the so-called "kimchi premium", which consists in the excess of the price of cryptocurrencies over the world ones on Korean exchanges. The overpayment rate on January 4 reached 5.5%.
Such an excess of prices on some exchanges over others was especially typical for the first half of 2018, when the difference reached 54%.
According to a number of analysts, the current price dynamics indicates an increased interest in cryptocurrency among South Koreans. This is due not only to expectations of further growth in BTC, but also to the fact that the Korean won is a restricted currency that is difficult to convert and move across the border.

- Luxurious and exclusive sports cars are increasingly being bought for bitcoins, which indicates an increase in the number of crypto millionaires. For example, the Vegas Auto Gallery in Nevada, whose sells aming other makes Aston Martin, Bentley, Ferrari and Lamborghini brands, has recently sold two first-class sport cars to customers, at over $6 million worth in BTC.

- December 2020 has proven to be the most successful for bitcoin miners in the past three years. They earned $ 692 million last month, according to a report from analytical service Block Research. Of this amount, about $63 million were transaction fees. But many miners are willing to pay so much high fees, if only their operations were processed as a priority.

- Chinese online game operator The9 announced its intention to join the cryptocurrency mining industry. To this end, it entered into agreements with several investors, including former executives of the Chinese mining company Canaan Inc.
The9 is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange and expects to raise new capital by issuing and selling common Class A shares to investors, as well as coupons for their purchase. “Our goal is to collect enough mining devices to provide 8-10% of the global bitcoin hash rate, 10% of the global Ethereum hash rate and 10% of the global Grin hash rate,” said Jun Zhu, CEO of The9. - We intend to become one of the largest companies in the world in terms of hash rate. This will accelerate the development of other areas of our business related to cryptocurrencies.”

- On January 3, 2009, a person or group of people under the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main Bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Shortly before that, on October 31, 2008, the white paper of the first cryptocurrency was published. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto then sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. A version of Bitcoin_0.1 software was published three days earlier.
Satoshi Nakamoto's identity and the motives for creating bitcoin still remain a mystery. It is possible that one of the incentives for this was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008.
In July 2020, the Whale Alert Twitter account showed information that well before Nakamoto left the crypto community more than ten years ago, he managed to mine 1,125,150 BTC. Now the cost of these coins would be about $40 billion.


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Stan NordFX
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December 2020 Results: NordFX's Most Successful Trader's Profit Exceeds $100,000



NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in December, last month of the past year 2020.

The highest profit in December was received by a client from China, account number 1345xxx. His profit exceeded the milestone of 100,000 and amounted to 107.654 USD. This impressive result was obtained mainly in transactions with the EUR/USD, GBP/USD currency pairs and gold (XAU/USD).

In second place is a trader from India (account number 1518xxx), whose profit amounted to just under 40 thousand dollars (39.506 USD), and was obtained through trading in many pairs, primarily GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, as well as operations with altcoin No.1, Ethereum (ETH/USD).

The third place in the December TOP-3 belongs to another Chinese trader (account No.1465xxx), with a result of 38.409 USD, who also made transactions with the British pound and gold, GBP/USD and XAU/USD.

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading in December, the Mak jemah signal (increase of 111.06% with a fairly serious maximum drawdown of 37.12%) attracted attention, as well as KennyFXPRO (an increase of 27.61% with a moderate drawdown of 6.65%);
- in the PAMM service, the results are more modest. Here the leader was the manager with the nickname The Owl Midnight Scalper, who showed an increase of 18.43% over the month. However, the drawdown here was significantly lower, only 2,39%, which can be attractive for investors who prefer stable income with a moderate degree of risk.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 8.425, was accrued to a partner from Sri Lanka, account No.1483xxx;
- next is a partner from India, account number 1491xxx, who received 5.991 USD;
- and finally, the top three in December 2020 is closed by another Indian partner, account No.1328ххх, who received $5.704 as a reward.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Stan NordFX
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 11 - 15, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar has been falling, and the EUR/USD pair has been rising accordingly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic last March. And now it is no longer far from its Q1 2018 highs. True, the result of the last three weeks can be considered zero. And the blame is not only the Christmas and New Year holidays, but also the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, coupled with the hawkish statements of the Fed representatives.
After the certification of President-elect Biden and the majority of Democrats in the Senate, the yield of 10-year-old American Treasuries skyrocketed, pulling the dollar with it. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the growth in Treasury yields confirms the desire of investors to see higher interest rates on USD, and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, predicted that the curtailment of the QE program could begin in the second half of 2021. All this sharply reduced the appetite of the bulls, who began to close long positions in EUR/USD, as a result of which the pair ended the week at 1.2225;

- GBP/USD. The storms associated with the signing of the Brexit agreement subsided, and, following the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair took a breather. Having reached a high of 1.3705 on January 04, by the end of the week it returned to where it had already visited in mid-late December, and finished at 1.3560;

- USD/JPY. Three weeks ago, we predicted the movement of the pair from the central line to the upper border of the medium-term channel, along which it has been sliding smoothly south from the end of March 2020. This is exactly what happened. Twice, on January 4 and 5, after bouncing off the central line, the pair went up sharply, approaching the upper border of the channel at 104.10 on January 8. A small pullback followed, and it froze at 103.95. Note that the 104.00 zone has been a strong support/resistance level for the last four months, from which the pair has repeatedly bounced off in one direction or another;

- Cryptocurrencies. it was 12 years ago, on January 3, 2009, that a person or group of people under the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. A few days later, on January 12, the first bitcoin transaction took place: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. And more recently, in July 2020, information appeared on the Whale Alert Twitter account that before his mysterious disappearance more than ten years ago, Nakamoto managed to mine 1,125,150 BTC. Now, when bitcoin has reached the mark of $41,000, the value of these coins would exceed $45 billion, and Nakamoto would have taken the 25th place among the richest people on the planet.
Here, in fact, we have already announced the most important news of the past week: the quotes of the main cryptocurrency exceeded $41,000 on Friday, January 8. Thus, starting in December 2020, in just five weeks, each BTC coin grew 115% heavier.
Which pleases not only investors, but also miners. December turned out to be their most successful month in the last three years. According to the analytical service Block Research, in December the total revenue of miners reached $692 million, which is almost $1 million per hour.
At the moment, the cryptocurrency mining market is dominated by China, which, according to some estimates, accounts for more than 50% of the global hash rate. The head of Ripple even called Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptocurrencies controlled by China.
By the way, about Ripple. The last week and a half have given some hope to the owners of this altcoin. Recall that while the rest of the top coins were growing in price, the XRP/USD pair, starting from November 24, was steadily going down. Starting at $0.77, it fell to $0.17 by the end of 2020, shrinking 78%.
But this is not all either. The biggest disaster awaited Ripple in the futures market. On December 23, the price of the March futures for this token fell to $0.00023 on the BitMEX derivative platform. Investors sold 80 million coins in one minute - this is how the market reacted to the lawsuit of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accused this startup of illegally selling securities under the guise of XRP for $1.3 billion.
Now the situation has stabilized somewhat, and XRP/USD is quoted at $0.31 on January 8. And if a trader placed orders in advance to buy Ripple at the minimum price, then they made a profit of 1350% in just the last two weeks.
Returning to the main cryptocurrency, we note that its volatility, of course, is not as cosmic as that of Ripple, but it still remains more than impressive, reaching 10% per hour. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in a very overbought zone: at 95 out of 100. But, despite this, following the BTC/USD quotes, the total crypto market capitalization continues to grow steadily, having reached $1.1 trillion. At the same time, the bitcoin dominance index came close to 70%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We described in detail a week ago how analysts from the world's leading banks and financial agencies see the rate of this pair in 2021. The median forecast is 1.2500, which corresponds to the January-February highs of three years ago.
As for the near future, 60% of experts hope that this January will become, if not a month of trend reversal, then at least a sufficiently deep correction of the pair to the south, which will return it to the level of 1.2050, or even 1.1900. The nearest support is in the 1.2100 zone. However, as for the indicators, this development was supported by only 80% of indicators on H4. On D1, both oscillators and trend indicators have taken a neutral position.
40% of analysts side with the bulls, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to them, the pair, having pushed back from 1.2200, should return to the uptrend, and we will soon see it at 1.2350. And then 1.2500 is not far off.
As for the events of the coming week, of interest are the data on the US consumer market, which will be published on Wednesday January 13 and Friday January 15. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to make a speech at the end of the working week, and the market will wait whether he confirms the words of his colleagues Thomas Barkin and Patrick Harker regarding a possible increase in interest rates and curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program;

- GBP/USD. In general, the forecast for the next week or two here is very similar to the forecast for the euro/dollar. Technical indicators on D1 provide either neutral or multi-directional signals. 60% of experts, 70% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair. 40% of analysts are for its growth, as well as the remaining indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.3525, 1.3485 and 1.3285. The next strong support is in the 1.3185 zone. Resistance levels are 1.3620 and 1.3725.
As for the events of the coming week, we should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, which will take place on Monday, January 11;

- USD/JPY. How the yen will behave largely depends on both the risk sentiment of investors and the behavior of US Treasury securities. For now, most analysts (55%) are confident that the pair will stay within the downward medium-term channel and, having fought off its upper border around 104.00, will return to its central zone. This possibility is confirmed by 25% of oscillators giving signals on the pair being overbought on H4 and D1. The nearest support is 103.65, the next one is 103.00. The target is located in the 102.50 area.
35% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 vote for the fact that the pair will still be able to break through the upper border of the designated channel and rise to the zone 104.70-105.00. The next target of the bulls is 105.70; And finally, the remaining 10% of analysts are neutral, suggesting that the pair will fluctuate around Pivot Point 104.00;
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- cryptocurrencies. Investors' optimism was added by the imminent coming to power in the United States of the Joe Biden administration. The founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, Mike Novogratz, noted on CNBC that Trump's team was never able to stop the record growth of the main cryptocurrency, and expressed hope that financial regulators under the leadership of the new president would take a more loyal position. “I hope that after the inauguration [January 20, 2021] we will get more progressive regulators. I will be happy to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework that supports rather than fights cryptocurrencies,” said Novogratz.
As for the entry into the market of large institutional investors, in addition to regulatory restrictions, they are hampered by extremely high volatility of major cryptocurrencies. Thus, experts at the investment bank JPMorgan believe that the image of an alternative to gold will make bitcoin even more popular and predict its growth to $146,000. But this requires convergence of the volatility indicators of bitcoin and gold, and this is a "multi-year process."
Looking at what's been happening with bitcoin lately, JPMorgan's estimate may seem too conservative to many. According to investment analytics from Pantera Capital, the market is just weeks away from seeing Bitcoin price at $115,000. Speaking on CNBC, Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital investment company, called the limited supply of bitcoin as a key driver of growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. Currently, giants like PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than bitcoin miners can mine, he explained.
At the moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated digital assets of $14.075 billion and $1.808 billion, respectively. And, according to analyst Kevin Rooke, this giant continues to buy bitcoins, which suggests that Grayscale is set for long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currency.
Another popular analyst, Willie Woo, agrees with this. In his opinion, after bitcoin crossed the border of $24.000, it became clear that the market finally came under the control of long-term investors.
Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges, also raised its forecast. “We thought the $50,000 price was reasonable, but that number will definitely be higher. I think that we will reach $75.000 - $100.000 for 1 BTC, by the end of 2021” says the CEO of its US unit Catherine Coley.
And finally, the most daring predictions for the BTC/USD pair, made by Insider co-founder Henry Blodget and the CEO of the Kraken bitcoin exchange Jesse Powell: both named $1 million per coin. However, the former believes that this will happen thanks to speculators, while the latter relies on the growth of institutional investments in cryptocurrency.
As for altcoin No.1, the capitalization of ethereum has exceeded $140 billion, which is many times more than that of such auto giants as, for example, General Motors ($59.5 billion), BMW ($47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($36.2 billion). Capital inflows into ETH will be even more significant in 2021, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already concentrating exclusively on ethereum. And the key event for this altcoin will be the launch of ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME). In general, according to the estimates of the trader of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, Michael van de Poppe, a strong rally in the altcoin market should start after the first quarter of this year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews

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- Mike McGlone, crypto analyst at Bloomberg, believes that bitcoin could hit the $50,000 mark in the near future. He gave a forecast a few months ago, according to which BTC was supposed to grow to a new historical high in December 2020, which eventually did happen.
“The main cryptocurrency already hit the $40,000 mark in early January but pulled back slightly due to a number of external factors,” Mike McGlone commented on his forecast. - There is an opinion that the general situation in the financial market affected the value of the main coin. The United States is currently not in the best position due to fluctuations in the dollar, which is why investors are switching to cryptocurrency from fiat. The capitalization of the main coin is tending to record values. I think the asset will take the 50k barrier soon.” Moreover, according to еру Bloomberg specialist, the chances for growth are much greater than for further weakening of the exchange rate. According to him, a rollback to $20,000 is now practically impossible.

- According to Bitcoin Treasures, large public companies acquired more than 1 million BTC (5.57% of the cryptocurrency market supply) last year, with a current value of about $40 billion. One of the most active institutional investors in 2020 is the world's largest crypto fund, Grayscale Investments, which manages about 600 thousand BTC, and the total value of its crypto assets is estimated at $24.5 billion (as of January 11, 2021).
Another major institutional investor is Nasdaq-listed mobile software company MicroStrategy. It has invested $1.12 billion in bitcoin over the past six months as a risk hedge and now it owns more than 70 thousand BTC.

- We wrote in the previous CryptoNews that it was 12 years ago, on January 12, 2009, that the creator of Bitcoin, known by the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto, sent the first transaction on the bitcoin network to the developer Hal Finney. Unlike Satoshi, much more is known about this recipient of the cryptocurrency.
Hal Finney partnered with PGP Corporation for many years, developing encryption products. Six months before his death in August 2014, Finney described his first experience with bitcoin:
“When Satoshi released the software, I immediately connected. I think I was the first person besides Satoshi to launch bitcoin. In total, I mined 70-odd blocks and became the recipient of the first bitcoin transaction. " At that time, Satoshi sent ten coins for the test. Over the next few days, Finney corresponded with the creator of bitcoin by email, helping to troubleshoot errors.
Describing his experience, the developer regretted his initially low interest in bitcoin. After helping with network testing and his first mining experience, Finney simply turned off the computer "because it was warming up and ha was annoyed by the fan noise."
The next time the developer returned to Bitcoin was in 2010, when Laszlo Heinitz bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC and the cryptocurrency was first exchanged for dollars. 'I blew the dust off my old wallet and was relieved to find that my bitcoins were still in place. My children are technically savvy enough for me to leave cryptocurrency to them inherit,” the developer wrote.
According to Finney, the identity of Satoshi remained a mystery to him, although he assumed that he was dealing with "a young man of Japanese descent, very intelligent and sincere."

- Forbes magazine has compiled a list of people whose fortunes have grown significantly due to the rise in the price of cryptocurrencies. In first place are the founders of the bitcoin exchange Gemini, the Winklevoss brothers. The estimated value of their cryptocurrency assets, according to Forbes, is about $1.4 billion each.
Bloq co-founder Matthew Roszak with $1.2 billion in digital assets ranks second, followed by venture capitalist Tim Draper. According to Forbes, the value of his assets is estimated at $1.1 billion.
In fourth place is the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Sailor, with assets worth $600 million, in fifthis the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz. Forbes valued his cryptocurrency assets at $478 million.
The last on the list is the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin with assets worth $360 million.

- A discussion broke out online between billionaire Mark Cuban and the president of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff. The former expressed confidence in the ability of bitcoin and some altcoins to pass the “market bubble” similar to the way Amazon, eBay and Priceline experienced the dotcom boom.
Gold supporter Peter Schiff replied to this that “internet companies had real value, while no cryptocurrency has it.”
Cuban countered that the price of cryptocurrency, like gold, is determined only by supply and demand. “This is a means of saving value. There is no real use in bitcoin. All the talk of fiat and depreciation is advertising fiction. Bitcoin is not meant for transactions,” added the billionaire.

- Bitcoin trading on the PayPal platform is gaining popularity: trade volumes have increased by 950% since the beginning of January, that is, almost 10 times. According to the analytical service Nomics, platform users made transactions with BTC for just $22.8 million on January 01, 2021, and their volume amounted to $242 million on January 11, which indicates an increase in interest from retail investors.
While many praise PayPal for providing access to cryptocurrencies, others criticize the platform for not supporting cryptocurrency withdrawal functionality. That is, PayPal users who buy bitcoin on the platform can only sell it there.
As a reminder, the ability to trade cryptocurrencies on PayPal appeared in November 2020. While the function is only available to users from the United States, in the future the company plans to provide access to it to residents of other countries.

- Ethereum is poised for further growth, said Dan Tapiero, founder of the DTAP Capital investment fund. This is evidenced by the interest on the part of institutional clients of the American financial holding Northern Trust. In partnership with Standard Chartered bank, the holding company launches a service for storing cryptocurrencies. And "if Northern Trust stores bitcoin and ethereum, then they have buyers for both assets," Tapiero substantiated his point of view.

- Changpeng Zhao, CEO and founder of the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, Binance, said that at one time he had sold his apartment to buy the first bitcoins. “It was 2013. I sold my apartment to buy bitcoins. The price of BTC at that point was something around $200,” he recalls. “Now I do not use fiat money at all and do not transfer cryptocurrency to fiat. For me personally, fiat is no longer relevant. I pay for food, taxi, and in general I pay for everything exclusively with cryptocurrency, "added the head of Binance.

- Seventy-year-old investor Bill Miller expressed the opinion that the first cryptocurrency has far from exhausted its growth potential. Firms like Square and PayPal buy freshly mined bitcoins every day, he said. Demand from retail investors is also growing. At the same time, in contrast to demand, the supply of digital gold increases slowly. This situation creates the prerequisites for the increase in the price of bitcoin to new heights.
Miller added that while people speculate about where the price peak is, the Fed's zero interest rate policy puts cash in a "guaranteed losing position." This means that holding 1–2% of a portfolio in bitcoin is a good hedge against risk, even if the cryptocurrency eventually crashes. “I think that owning a small number of bitcoins is more of a risk management strategy than anything else,” the American investor emphasized.


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Stan NordFX
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NordFX Receives Three Prestigious Awards at the End of 2020



The winners of the awards of the International Academy of Trading Masterforex-V and the International Association of Forex Traders IAFT became known at the very beginning of the new year, 2021. Among the winners is the brokerage company NordFX, which has won three prestigious professional awards.

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Founded in 2005, Masterforex-V International Academy is one of the leading and most ambitious online projects in the field of foreign exchange trading. Today traders from more than 50 countries of the world are trained at the Academy. The rectorate and the students of the Academy evaluate the performance of financial organizations throughout the year, forming ratings, at the top of which NordFX has repeatedly found itself. And now, at the end of 2020, the MasterForex-V Academy community has once again expressed its trust and recognition to the company, having honoured it with the title of "World Most Reliable Broker."

The company received two more awards based on the results of the annual voting on the IAFT Awards website. It is organized by the International Association of Forex Traders (IAFT), in which more than 200,000 traders from various countries take part. Each of them can vote on the award website, which makes it possible to assess the activities of a broker as objectively as possible.

For the third year in a row, NordFX won the Best Broker in Asia nomination by a wide margin, which is an unconditional recognition of the company's active work and success in this most important region of the planet.

And another award from the International Association of Forex Traders, the title of the Best Cryptocurrency Broker of 2020, was a testament to the high quality of services that the company provides for operations in the digital asset market.


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Stan NordFX
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  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 18 - 22, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (60%) were in favor of reducing the pair first to support 1.2100, and then, possibly, another 50 points lower. Almost everything happened as forecasted: the EUR/USD pair was at the level of 1.2075 at the end of the trading week.
It should be noted that a somewhat atypical situation has developed on the market since the start of 2021. Usually, the rise in the stock market puts downward pressure on the dollar. This is exactly what happened in the previous month: fueled by risk appetites, the S&P500 grew steadily, while the dollar index, which plays the role of a defensive asset, was steadily falling. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in December, large investors hoped for a quick victory over COVID-19, a surge in GDP, they were actively buyingt shares of technology companies and were also actively getting rid of the dollar. And now the situation has changed dramatically: the USD DXY index began to grow in parallel with the S&P500.
What is the reason for this? First, US stocks look overvalued at the moment. At least from the point of view of American investors. In addition, we wrote in the previous review that after the certification of the US President-elect Biden and the majority of Democrats in the Senate, the yield of 10-year American Treasuries went up sharply, pulling the dollar with it. The leaders of the Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) of Richmond and Philadelphia added fuel to the fire, hinting at a possible curtailment of the QE program and an increase in interest rates on the dollar; bulls began to close long positions in EUR/USD;

- GBP/USD. Over the past five days, this pair has drawn a clear sinusoid, moving in the 1.3450-1.3700 channel along the 1.3575 Pivot Point. At the beginning, it dropped to the lower border of this trading range, and then turned around and sharply went up, reaching the values of 2.5 years ago on Wednesday.
The pound was supported last week by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who not only rejected the possibility of introducing a negative interest rate, but also expressed the opinion that the coronavirus pandemic is not capable of causing any structural changes in the UK economy. As a result, the pound showed the biggest gains in the past two months. However, then, following the general trend of strengthening dollar, the pair returned to the Pivot Point and finished the week at 1.3580;

- USD/JPY. The forecast, which was voted for by the majority of analysts (55%), turned out to be absolutely correct: the pair kept within the descending medium-term channel and, having bounced off its upper border, moved to its center.
Recall that another 10% of analysts assumed that the pair would move sideways, making fluctuations around Pivot Point 104.00. And they also turned out to be right: having started the five-day week at 103.95, it completed it also within this zone, at 103.85;

- cryptocurrencies. By the evening of Friday January 15, the bitcoin chart can equally likely speak of both a return to an uptrend or a continuation of a downward correction. Reaching a historic high of $41.435 on January 08, the BTC/USD pair turned south and dropped to $30.600 by January 11. All major indicators have long been giving signals of bitcoin being overbought, and only an excuse was needed for such a deep correction. And it was found in the form of an increase in the yield on US government bonds, which caused the dollar to strengthen. As a result, the main cryptocurrency lost more than 25% in price in just three days.
Then, to the delight of investors, the pair again approached the $40,000 mark, and the USA again became the formal reason for this. More precisely, President-elect Joe Biden, who announced a new $1.9 trillion economic aid package that includes $2,000 in direct payments to Americans. Such massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is likely to drive inflation and, as a result, increase demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
All good things are known to end someday. So bitcoin stopped its growth on January 14, and failed to set a new height record. And then the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde called for global regulation of the digital currency market. Referring to the speculative nature of bitcoin, she stated that such regulation could be initiated within the G7 countries, then carried over to the G20, and eventually expanded to a global level.
Taking advantage of the situation, the bears regained control of the situation and the BTC/USD pair dropped below the $ 35,000 level again in the second half of Friday, January 15.
It should be noted that the activity of investors has significantly decreased at the start of 2021. According to CoinShares, only $29 million was invested in crypto funds in the first week of January. This is despite the fact that similar investments amounted to more than $ 1 billion the week before Christmas. Of course, such a lull can be explained by a respite for the holidays. Moreover, crypto whales also reacted sluggishly to the correction on January 8-11: withdrawal operations were recorded only on a very small number of their BTC wallets.
PayPal data show that at least the retail market is gradually waking up after the Christmas and New Year hibernation, the volume of bitcoin trading on this platform has increased by 950% since the beginning of January, that is, almost 10 times. If, according to the analytical service Nomics, platform users made transactions with BTC for only $22.8 million on January 01, 2021, their volume amounted to $242 million ten days later.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization was $1 trillion by January 15 (it was $1.13 trillion at the high of January 10). The BTC dominance index is in the region of 68%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 95 to 88 points over the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell denied the statements of his colleagues from the regional Federal Reserve Banks, saying that one should not count on raising interest rates and curtailing soft monetary policy in the near future. These words, coupled with Joe Biden's new $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package, are likely to halt the rise in US Treasury yields and support the bulls on S&P500. Moreover, the hopes for vaccination, which will lead to a rapid growth in GDP, have not disappeared. Thus, Wall Street Journal experts predict an increase in American GDP by 4.3% in 2021.
But will this break the current correlation between the dollar and the stock market? Will the dollar stop rising? It is not excluded that the growth of the S&P500 will be supported not only by American, but also by major investors from other countries. And such an infusion of foreign capital into the US economy will lead to the strengthening of the US currency.
Now, specifically about the EUR/USD pair. It is clear that at the time of writing the forecast (January 15), most indicators are painted red. 100% of trend indicators on H4, 75% on D1, as well as 75% of oscillators on both timeframes look to the south. The remaining oscillators signal that the pair is oversold.
As for the experts, their opinions are divided equally at the moment. But when moving from a weekly to a mid-term forecast, the scales are tilted towards the bulls. 65% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the dollar to weaken and the pair to rise to at least 1.2500-1.2550 over the next one and a half to two months. The nearest resistances are 1.2175, 1.2275, 1.2300 and 1.2350. The main support area is 1.1800-1.1900.
As for the important events of the coming week, attention should be paid to the ECB's interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference of the management of this regulator on Thursday 21 January. And data on business activity of Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be published the next day, on January 22;
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- GBP/USD. Not only Germany and the EU, but also the UK will release statistics on business activity (Markit in the services sector) on Friday 22 January. This data could send a signal to investors about how the attack of a new coronavirus strain has affected the country's economy. Recall that earlier Britain reported record levels of deaths and new cases over the past few weeks in London and the south-east of England.
However, problems associated with COVID-19 are intensifying in other countries as well, including the United States. Therefore, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believe that the pair will be able to return to the level of 1.3700, and perhaps rise another 100 points higher. An additional argument for its growth is the new fiscal stimulus in the US, which has been discussed above.
Support levels 1.3540 and 1.3450;

- USD/JPY. The rise of the pair from the lower to the upper border of the descending medium-term channel, which took place in the first two weeks of January, is associated by a number of experts with an increase in risk sentiment and a decrease in interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency. Based on this, they believe that the pair will still be able to break through the upper border of the designated channel and rise to the 105.00 zone. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 vote for this scenario. The next target of the bulls is 105.70, the nearest resistance is the zone 104.00-104.35.
The majority of experts (65%) are confident that the pair will stay within the designated channel. The nearest support is 103.60, the next one is 103.00. The target is located in the 102.50 area.

- cryptocurrencies. So, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is now at the level of $1 trillion. This is an important psychological level, especially for retail investors. Further growth of this indicator will be a clear confirmation of forecasts about the rise of the BTC/USD pair at least to a height of $50.000. If the capitalization goes down, then this can cause a landslide sale of coins: the example of the 2018 crypto winter is alive in the market memory.
In the meantime, the market is still dominated by an optimistic mood. So, for example, Bloomberg crypto analyst Mike McGlone believes that $50.000 is a real target for bitcoin. He gave a forecast a few months ago, according to which BTC was supposed to grow to a new historical high in December 2020, which eventually did happen. “I think that the asset will take the barrier of 50 thousand in the near future,” said this expert and added that the chances of BTC growth are much greater than its further weakening, and a pullback to $20,000 is now practically excluded.
Dan Morehead, CEO of investment company Pantera Capital, predicts that bitcoin's price will hit $115,000 by August 2021 and events such as the launch of the digital yuan will help further the penetration of cryptocurrencies into the global economy.
If this happens, there will be even more crypto millionaires and billionaires in the world. For now, according to Forbes, the list of the richest of them looks like this:
In first place are the founders of the bitcoin exchange Gemini, the Winklevoss brothers. The estimated value of their cryptocurrency assets, according to Forbes, is about $1.4 billion each. Bloq co-founder Matthew Roszak with $1.2 billion in digital assets ranks second, followed by venture capitalist Tim Draper. According to Forbes, the value of his assets is estimated at $1.1 billion.
In fourth place is the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Sailor, with assets worth $600 million, in fifthis the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz. Forbes valued his cryptocurrency assets at $478 million. The last on the list is the co-founder of ethereum Vitalik Buterin with assets worth $360 million.
Speaking of ethereum. According to the founder of the investment fund DTAP Capital Dan Tapiero, this coin is ready for further growth. This is evidenced by the interest on the part of institutional clients of the American financial holding Northern Trust. The holding company launches a service for storing cryptocurrencies, in partnership with Standard Chartered bank. And "if Northern Trust stores bitcoin and ethereum, then they have buyers for both assets," Tapiero substantiated his point of view.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews

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- Bitcoin has proven to be the most profitable asset in the past nine years due to constant fluctuations in value. According to experts, in this case it is not only about a direct increase in the price of cryptocurrency. Even when the coin sinks, it benefits traders who buy it at the price lowest for a certain period.
“Currently, the base coin is trading at $35,000. If everything develops in about the same direction, then in February it will be possible to see bitcoin for $45,000 or even more,” predicted the head of Pantera Capital investment company Dan Morehead, and at the same time he advised traders and other industry participants to be reasonable, since bitcoin has always been unstable. Even against the backdrop of the rally that began in December last year, the asset continues to remain risky, which is well understood by all experienced coin holders.

- JPMorgan Chase strategists, led by Nicholas Panigirtzoglou, believe that bitcoin could lose ground in the short term if it fails to break above $40,000. This month, the flagship cryptocurrency has twice broken through this key level, and then rolled back.
The key to the short-term outlook for bitcoin's price is the world's largest digital asset management company Grayscale Investments, with a crypto portfolio currently valued at $23 billion, analysts say. "For such a breakthrough to occur, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust will likely need to maintain an inflow rate of $100 million per day over the coming days and weeks." However, if BTC still fails to hit the $40,000 mark, a deep correction can be expected.

- After a deal to sell cryptocurrency, a Hong Kong resident was robbed of $448,700. This is reported by news agency South China Morning Post. The buyer of the digital currency invited the trader to the office of ashopping center to carry out the transaction. She transferred USDT tokens and received HK $3.5 million in cash. After the transaction, three men ran out of a nearby room and, threatening with a knife, took away the victim's money and the smartphone. The woman was locked up, and all four "buyers" fled.
Interestingly, the victim had already conducted several successful transactions with this buyer. According to police, in this way the criminals won the trust of the victim.

- Billionaire Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group, has significantly changed his attitude towards bitcoin. Earlier, Marks stated that investing in cryptocurrency is a very dangerous operation that can cause huge losses for large investors. In 2017, during the bitcoin rally, he advised to refrain from buying coins. In addition, he called cryptocurrencies "fake" and said they had no real value.
And now the billionaire says that his "skeptical views on cryptocurrency assets have not been confirmed." “Let's hope,” Marx wrote, “that events will continue to develop as actively as they are now. The cryptocurrency market is gradually emerging from the shadow sector, as evidenced by a large number of major investors. I think it still has real value. My family owns an impressive number of bitcoins, which I support at this stage.”

- According to the online edition Forklog, a "biblical message" was found in the bitcoin block No.666666. “Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good,” says the Epistle to the Romans of the Apostle Paul, chapter 12, verse 21. An unknown person added this quote from the sixth book of the New Testament to block # 666666 of the bitcoin network and sent two equal amounts in the first cryptocurrency to two addresses, the first characters of which contain the words "God" and "Bible" in English.

- The former CEO of the now defunct South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Coinnest was sentenced to 18 months in prison. It is reported by Bitcoin.com with reference to local media.
According to the case file, ex-director Kim Ik Hwang received a bribe of 110 BTC ($770 thousand at that time) in February 2018 for listing the S-coin, which was issued by K Group. Subsequently, 2 million S-coins with a total value of $125,500 were also credited to his account.
Although the defendant pleaded not guilty, the Supreme Court sentenced Kim to one and a half years in prison for commercial bribery and fined him over $61,000. “Hwang manipulated market prices and gained unreasonable profit for it. Such actions undermine confidence in the crypto industry, which means they are unacceptable," the prosecutor said.

- 2020 has turned out much better for long-term investors than the previous year. The market capitalization of 30 key assets of the cryptocurrency market grew by 308% (versus 62% in 2019), according to a report from CoinGecko. Among the five largest coins, bitcoin has shown the best results, having risen in price by about four times (in 2019 - by 95%). Ethereum looked even better, its price rose by 472% after near-zero dynamics over the previous 365 days. Portfolios with DeFi protocol tokens gained 718% on average.

- Scott Meinerd, investment director at Guggenheim Partners, compared the current situation with what happened to the economy after the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918. At the same time, he confirmed his forecast for the bitcoin rate at $400,000 but warned of a possible correction.
According to the specialist, the latest rise in the BTC rate could have been caused by retail investors. “I think it's about them. There is some speculative frenzy in the market. It may be worth withdrawing some of the funds from cryptocurrencies,” Minerd said.

- A startup in the field of cybersecurity Red Balloon Security from New York (USA) as a test task sends applicants to vacant places a hard drive with locked bitcoins worth about $5 thousand and several boxes of chocolates.
In a week, the applicant needs to get access to the cryptocurrency wallet. If successful, part of the funds must be spent on buying a ticket to New York in order to meet with a representative of Red Balloon Security. Anyway, one can keep the chocolates.
The company sends such packages to almost everyone, but at the same time it regularly changes the content of the test so that applicants cannot share their results on the Internet. Statistics show that for 150-200 people there is only one applicant who has successfully completed the task.

- One of the world's largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is exploring the possibility of launching a custodian service for digital assets. This is reported by CoinDesk with reference to its own source within the bank. “Like JPMorgan,” the source said, “we have released an RFI for digital storage. We are studying the issue extensively and deciding what to do next. " Regarding the timing of the launch of services related to cryptocurrencies, the source replied that the bank's plans "will become apparent in the near future."


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Stan NordFX
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How to Start Trading on Forex. Rapid Growth Plan



The Forex currency market is one of the few places where everyone can try to realize themselves. The absence of superiors, the non-existent ceiling on earnings, the work schedule for which you are responsible — all this is in the trader's profession. But becoming one is not an easy task.

Newcomers who come here face a number of difficulties. Many do not understand how to start trading Forex and what is needed for this. Therefore, they make mistakes at the beginning, which can discourage the desire to trade on Forex forever after the first attempt.

Since the path of novice traders and investors cannot be called an easy walk, we have prepared our own action plan. By following it, you will quickly find the key to understanding the market, and Forex trading will begin to generate income, for which, in fact, you came here.

Where to Start Trading on Forex

Forex market is a decentralized interbank exchange where currency is traded between its participants. In simple words, Forex is the global market for currency trading . The main source of a trader's earnings is the exchange rate difference between the price of buying and selling one currency in exchange for another. For example, you can buy and then sell back dollars for euros, or Japanese yen for Chinese yuan. But before you start predicting the benefit of a particular deal and making money from it, you should go through the following main stages. There are seven of them, and these are:
1. Choosing a broker ;
2. Opening of a trading account;
3. Downloading the platform (for broker NordFX, this is MT4);
4. Acquaintance with the theoretical part;
5. Choosing a currency pair and trading strategy;
6. Testing theory on a demo account and obtaining the necessary skills;
7. Smooth transition to real trading with real money.

How to Choose a Forex Broker

The foreign exchange market is arranged in such a way that only large capital can access it directly. We are talking about millions of dollars, because the main participants in trading are banking institutions and institutional investors, such as hedge funds. To start trading on Forex , a private trader needs to use the services of an intermediary - a broker . The latter accumulates all orders of traders into a single powerful pool and enters the market with it. Thanks to this, Forex trading has become available to everyone, even those who have very little capital.

It is important to choose a decent brokerage company. When you open a trading account , the next step is to fund it. Your money is a tidbit for scammers. There are cases when fake companies simply imitated real trading. There are also those that are doing their best to under various pretexts not to return customers profit earned by them. To do this, they use non-market quotes or fictitious server crashes. There are those who deliberately insert sticks into the wheels, juggling spreads, requotes, slippage. Therefore, choosing a broker can be compared to laying the foundation for building a house.

Regulation and Reputation

One of the basic criteria for choosing a broker is their regulation and reputation.

A law-abiding company must be legally registered to allow the appropriate type of business. Despite the fact that the conditions for each country are different, the company's activity in the financial markets is always closely monitored. These are the issuance of a license, verification of reports, payment of insurance premiums, consideration of complaints and monitoring. As soon as a broker begins to go beyond the law, at best it is fined for a very large sum, or even deprived of its license, forbidding it to work.

In addition to the license, you should carefully study the company's reputation and history. Brokers who once took the path of deception cannot exist for a long time. First, the regulator's response is imminent. Secondly, there is a wave of negative reviews.

The longer the broker stays in the market, the clearer its reputation becomes. From the position of a trader, choosing a company without history and reputation is not justified.

The brokerage company NordFX has been operating in the financial markets since 2008 and is included in the TOP-10 and TOP-20 of many international ratings. It has received more than 50 honorary awards, including those as an exceptionally reliable highly professional broker. During this time, clients from more than 190 countries of the world have opened more than one and a half million accounts in it. Agree, that says a lot!

NordFX works not only in the foreign exchange, but also in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. And during this time, unlike many cryptocurrency exchanges, there was not a single hacker hacking in the company, not a single penny of customer funds was stolen. And all this thanks to the combination of many years of experience of NordFX specialists and the advanced technologies and equipment they use.

Trading Terms

The beginner may have the impression that the terms of the trading account are identical regardless of the broker. In fact, this is not the case. The size of the spread, commission or swap, the speed of order execution, the minimum deposit size, the variety of trading instruments, leverage - all these factors uniquely affect the final profitability of a trader's work.

The difference becomes noticeable when studying the details. For example, some have huge spreads for the currency pair you are interested in, while others, on the contrary, have low spreads. The broker that you choose should have the trading conditions that are right for you. Trading in poor trading conditions will do no good. For example, if you trade inside the day on short time frames, the size of the swap doesn't make any difference to you. But if you keep your position open for several weeks or months, then a negative swap can “eat up” all your profits and bring only losses.

The size of the leverage is also important. Under normal conditions in the market, you may not use it, but under extraordinary conditions it can be your lifeline that will keep you from falling victim to financial storms and hurricanes. At NordFX, for example, the maximum leverage for currency pairs reaches 1: 1000, which significantly expands your opportunities for using a variety of trading strategies and hedging risks.

Speed and Withdrawal Methods, Support

It is important to check the future partner (and the broker is your partner) for the ability to solve current problems. To do this, ask Support a few questions and assess how quickly you got the answer to your question. If the problem is not solved, ­you should think about the quality of service.

Many do not attach importance to this, but at times of real problems only effective support can minimize damage.

Pay attention to the methods of depositing and withdrawing money, their variety, the size of the commission and the speed of order execution. It is counterproductive to cooperate with a brokerage company, which has a term of withdrawal of money as one month in the regulations.

Opening a Trading Account

When you have laid the foundation, that is, decided on a reliable brokerage company, the next step is to open a trading account. Forex trading is carried out through it. One company may have several types of accounts. You should choose a specific one, focusing on your tasks, the amount of capital, and expediency.

Broker NordFX offers its clients four types of accounts. Each of them is unique in its own way and endowed with advantages that, in total, cover all the requirements that a trader can impose on them, and allow you to effectively use a wide variety of trading strategies, conducting transactions with currencies, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, oil, stock indices and shares of leading world companies.

Downloading the Platform

Trading on financial markets is carried out using special software. Depending on which terminal is selected, the number of tools for price analysis and your capabilities will depend. Indicators, advisors, scripts make trading more comfortable and efficient.

Today, in Forex, the majority of traders in the world choose the MetaTrader 4 (MT4) platform. Its interface is intuitive, which allows, just a few minutes after meeting, to make the first transaction. As for the tools and opportunities, they are huge. Study the functional features of MT4 in detail, and you will understand how much it can do for you.

Acquaintance with the Theoretical Part

A trader is a profession that, in principle, anyone can comprehend. But, like in any occupation, there are a number of secrets here, without which you cannot rise from a beginner to the level of a high-class professional. In order to become one, you need to study the theory that is dedicated to the foreign exchange market. This applies not only to methods of technical analysis of charts, but also to understanding the basics of pricing and the functioning of world markets. The following tutorials and tutorials will help you with this:
1. “How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange” - Courtney Smith;
2. “A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street” - Edward O. Thorpe;
3. “The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets” - B. Steenbadger;
4. " Beyond Candlesticks " - Steve Nison;
5. "How to Play and Win at a Stock Exchange" - Alexander Elder.

You can find useful content on exchange topics on thematic sites and, of course, in the NordFX educational section. There's just a huge amount of it. And when you become grounded in theory, you will naturally be able to make significantly more informed decisions when opening and closing trades.

However, the theoretical base may not be enough. The psychology of a trader has a huge impact on the financial result. And if you are still not confident in your abilities, such areas of social trading as PAMM accounts and CopyTrading can come to the rescue.

Choosing a Currency Pair and Trading Strategy

It is enough to read one book about currency, commodity, or world stock exchanges to understand the importance of system trading. In this case, you can do the following:
1. Create your own strategy based on the obtained theoretical data;
2. Take someone else's, adjusting it for yourself.

The currency pair will play an important role. We recommend that beginners pay attention to assets where the spread value is minimal. These are currency pairs such as: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, and a number of others.

If you wish to work with CFDs on stocks, NordFX has allocated a separate Stocks trading account to do so. Many tens of shares of the world's largest companies are available for trading on it.

Testing Theory on a Demo Account and Gaining Skills

The major advancement in the exchange business, made possible in recent decades by computers and the Internet, is electronic trading. Modern platforms store a huge historical array of quotes, on the basis of which you can automatically conduct a thorough analysis, form a trading strategy and test your ideas. It is worth learning the strategy tester built into MetaTrader-4 here.

Of course, the demo account should also be borne in mind. Thanks to it, you can trade in real time with virtual money. But the demo account has one huge drawback. The trader here does not risk losing real capital, therefore, they act much more recklessly than when trading in the real market.

To understand psychology and how important it is in this profession, you can test ideas on a Fix account. The minimum deposit is only $10 here, so it's a great way to feel all on yourself: the grief of defeat, excitement, fear and, of course, the joy of victory.

Smooth Transition to Real Trading

The preliminary experience gained on a demo account allows you to proceed to the final stage - to start using a real trading account. It is important to be aware that there is a huge difference between the real and the demo accounts. As mentioned above, it lies in the perception of loss. In the case of real money, losses are always taken to heart. And it is critical at this stage not to do the following stupid things:
1. Try to deviate from the terms of your trading strategy;
2. Start to recoup;
3. Forget about cutting losses;
4. Start waiting through drawdown;
5. Succumb to the excitement.

When you start trading real money, learn to stop on time, work on your mistakes. A couple of hours spent analyzing the transaction report can reveal the strengths and weaknesses not only of your trading strategy, but also of your own character. And this is often more important than knowledge in technical or fundamental analysis of Forex.

With What Amount You Can Start Trading on Forex

Among beginners, there is an opinion that a small amount of capital is enough to start making serious money. For example, a Fix account allows you to make a trade with a “capital” of just one dollar. Is that enough to begin with? From our point of view, it is. But only for a start, and not to buy a villa, a yacht and a personal plane.

Examples are often advertised on the Internet in which traders manage to get astronomical profits of hundreds, thousands, and even tens of thousands of percent. And the most interesting thing is that this is not a lie, it really happens. But this is a very risky game, which then, most often, leads to the collapse and loss of all funds.

Imagine that, having accelerated your car on the Formula 1 track to 300 km/h, you then jump out into a city intersection. How will this end? Everyone has a chance of staying alive, but it is small and has nothing to do with a professional approach. Any rider will say the speed must meet road conditions. Likewise in Forex, you need to learn to hurry slowly, give up crazy ideas and set realistic goals for yourself. Everyone has a chance of success. However, you should not treat trading in financial markets as a casino where luck decides everything. Knowledge and experience decide everything here.

Though, some luck won't hurt either...


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 25 – 29, 2021



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. We published a chart seven days ago that clearly showed how the correlation between the S&P500 index and EUR/USD was broken in early January. But now everything is back to normal: the S&P500 continued its growth, reaching a historic maximum of 3859.84 on January 21, and the EUR/USD pair went up with it, fully justifying the forecast of the majority (65%) of experts. Groping on Monday the local bottom at 1.2053, the euro then rose to 1.2190, the final chord sounded slightly lower, at 1.2170.
The end of the week was quite calm, thanks to the head of the European Central Bank. Christine Lagarde was never able to weaken the European currency, but also did not allow it to seriously overtake the dollar. And this can be considered a certain success.
In her speech following the ECB meeting on Thursday 21 January, Madame Lagarde explained what is good and what is bad. The "Good" section includes the start of vaccinations, the success of the EU economic recovery and the reduction of political uncertainty in the US. The "Bad" section includes the worsening epidemiological situation, increased lockdowns, the likelihood of a double recession in the eurozone and low inflation, which is reluctant to grow because of the strong euro. At the same time, the ECB refused again at its meeting last Thursday to adjust monetary policy, only stating that “the package of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme may not be used in full.” That news pushed the euro up. However, not by much since no specifics followed. And what criteria will be used to determine the scale of PEPP has remained a mystery to investors;

- GBP/USD. The pound grew along with the euro for the first half of the week. And it even broke through the upper boundary of the channel 1.3450-1.3700, reaching the height of 1.3745. However, the ending of the five-day period turned out to be blurry. The rally in the pound was not supported either by retail sales (an increase of 0.3% instead of the forecasted 1.2%), or business activity indicators: in the service sector, the Markit index fell from 49.4 to 38.8. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson added pessimism, saying that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. As a result, the pound made a reversal, returned within the designated channel, and finished at 1.3680;

- USD/JPY. Recall that the main forecast, supported by 65% of analysts, said that this pair would hold within the downward medium-term channel, which began in the last days of March 2020 of the year. Levels 103.60 and 103.00 were called as supports.
That scenario turned out to be perfectly correct. The pair moves for the second week in a row unsuccessfully trying to break the upper bound of this channel. The first attempt last week was made on Tuesday January 19, when it bounced off the support at 103.60 and reached 104.07. The next rebound, on Thursday January 22, from the level of 103.30, was stopped at 103.90, after which the pair ended the working week where it had already visited repeatedly in January, in the 103.80 zone;

- cryptocurrencies. Is this atemporary correction or the beginning of a new crypto winter? This question became dominant last week. Bitcoin dipped below $29.000 on Friday December 22, which, of course, scared many investors. Guggenheim investment director Scott Minerd predicts a further decline down to $20,000 - the zone from which the explosive rally started in the second half of December 2020, which raised the BTC quotes by 100%.
Optimists reassure: over the year, bitcoin has risen in price by 5.75 times, from $7,300 on January 01, 2020 to $41.900 on January 08, 2021, so a correction by "some" 30% is, they say, not a reason for panic. In addition, a number of analysts note that this time the fall of bitcoin is not accompanied by an exit to fiat. Investors, fixing profits on the main cryptocurrency, do not leave the digital market, but open positions on more promising, in their opinion, altcoins. For example, on ethereum, the price of which has increased more than 11 times over the year. And if by the evening of January 22, the BTC/USD pair lost 22% relative to the maximum, then the decline in ETH/USD was less than 10%.
This version is also supported by data on the crypto market capitalization. In seven days, total capitalization, including bitcoin, decreased by 9.5% (from $1.028 trillion to $0.933 trillion). At the same time, the capitalization of altcoins remained at the same level of $300 billion. It was mainly bitcoin that was losing, the dominance index of which decreased from 67.48% to 64.31%. The share of Ethereum, on the contrary, increased from 13.52% to 15.01%.
As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it finally came out of the overbought zone and fell from 88 to 40 points in a week. This value corresponds to a neutral state, when it is too late to open short positions on the BTC/USD pair, and too early to open long positions. Although, according to analysts, it is during such price rollbacks that "whales" begin to actively replenish their bitcoin wallets, buying up coins of small alarmist investors.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Analyzing the results of the last ECB meeting, we can conclude that, despite the not very clear comments of Ms. Lagarde, the mood of the European regulator is still hawkish. The bank's Governing Council noted that EU debt markets had shown a rise in yields and concerns about a rapid strengthening of the euro had eased. Now we must wait for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on January 28. The interest rate on the dollar is likely to remain at the same level of 0.25%, so the main interest will be the comments of the regulator's management regarding the monetary policy in the near future. Special attention will be drawn to them also because this will be the first Fed meeting since the inauguration of the new US President Joe Biden.
Of course, we will also see the release of a fairly large volume of macro statistics next week, including the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the United States (to be announced on Wednesday January 27), as well as data on the GDP of the United States and Germany, which will be released, respectively, on Thursday January 28 and Friday January 29.
In the meantime, the opinions of experts have been distributed as follows. 45% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1, 75% of oscillators on ?4, 90% of trend indicators on H4 and 75% on D1, side with the bulls. The nearest resistances are 1.2275, 1.2300 and 1.2350. The medium-term target is the same - rise to a height of 1.2500-1.2550.
The opposite view is held by 55% of experts. 25% oscillators on H4 signal that the pair is overbought. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. The main objective is the zone 1.1800-1.1900;

- GBP/USD. At the time of writing the review, oscillator readings on H4 look pretty chaotic. As for the remaining indicators, most of them are still painted green. Thus, 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1, as well as 75% of trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 look to the north.
But as for analysts, they, for the most part (65%), do not share the bullish optimism of technical analysis. The reason, as mentioned above, is the poor performance of the British economy and the statement of the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. This is forcing investors to not just revise their forecasts for the pound, but also to re-start discussing a scenario with negative Bank of England interest rates.
The support levels are zone 1.3615-1.3635, then 1.3525 and finally the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.3450. Resistance levels ¬- the upper limit of the channel 1.3700, 1.3745 and 1.3800;
UserPostedImage


- USD/JPY. At its meeting on Thursday January 21, the Bank of Japan, as well as the ECB, did not adjust the parameters of its monetary policy. The expectations for GDP were slightly lowered over the past, 2020, but the regulator raised its forecasts for 2021, considering that despite everything, the country's economy will continue to grow.
Based on this, 70% of experts favored further smooth strengthening of the yen and the descent of the pair to support 103.00, and in case of increased volatility - another 50 points lower. The nearest support is 103.30.
An alternative scenario, for which 30% of experts voted, assumes a breakdown of the upper border of the descending channel, and the rise of the pair first to the resistance of 104.00, then 104.40. The next goal of the bulls is zone 104.70-105.00;

- cryptocurrencies. It is no secret how highly volatile and risky bitcoin is. Its explosive growth was driven by large institutional investors who began to enter the crypto market in the second half of 2020, fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic and fiscal stimulus from the US Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates and flooded the market with cheap dollars.
And now analysts are talking about the fact that cryptocurrencies could only be a temporary measure to preserve capital, and that now institutions are phasing out purchases of digital assets.
According to JPMorgan Chase strategists, the key to the short-term outlook for bitcoin's price is the world's largest digital asset management company Grayscale Investments, with a crypto portfolio currently valued at $23 billion. According to the calculations of bank analysts, for the BTC/USD pair to break through the resistance of $40,000, it is necessary that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust maintain the pace of inflow funds of $100 million per day in the coming days and weeks. Otherwise, a deep correction can be expected.
At the time of writing the forecast, the pair's quotes are in the region of $32,500. This is a fairly strong support/resistance level for the past three weeks. And if capitalization does not go up, and the price again manages to fall below $30,000, one can expect increased pressure from the bears and a new wave of active sales. 65% of experts agree with this.
But there are also professional market participants who maintain a moderately bullish mood, which is confirmed by positive premiums for March futures, + 3.5-5.0%. And the head of investment company Pantera Capital Dan Morehead expects to see "bitcoin for $45,000 or even more" in February. However, he advises traders and other industry participants to be as prudent as possible.
The statements of the new US administration also inspire some optimism. So the candidate for the US Treasury and former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking about possible improvements to the traditional financial system, called for encouraging the use of cryptocurrencies, if it, of course, occurs within the framework of the law. But time will tell what these laws will be. Although ... already now those who wish can use the services of ... a fortune teller.
As Reuters reported, fortune teller Maren Altman from New York makes her predictions of the bitcoin rate based on the movement of the stars. She predicted the beginning of the January correction of bitcoin absolutely accurately, since on that day the trajectory of Mercury (the price of BTC) should have been crossed by Saturn (the limiting indicator). Looking ahead, Ms. Altman sees “some favorable signals at the end of the month and especially in February and early March.” “However, a big correction will begin in mid-March,” the fortune teller says. “Mid-April also looks pessimistic. May is bullish.”
By the way, Ms. Altman already has more than a million followers on social networks, among whom there may be large institutional investors. So, it is possible that it is she, together with the stars, and not Grayscale Investments, who runs the crypto market ?.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 274
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews

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- Bank of Singapore, one of the largest Asian financial institutions, has once again called bitcoin a promising instrument. According to experts, the main cryptocurrency has proven that it can remain a profitable asset even in times of crisis. A new report by the Bank of Singapore says that bitcoin has lost its status as a “risky” financial instrument over the years, becoming “relatively stable”, and may not only compete with gold, but also displace it from the first place in terms of investment safety.
At the same time, the bank's experts believe that "we are unlikely to see widespread adoption of bitcoin soon, since regulators simply will not allow users to independently decide how transactions with millions or even billions will be performed."

- The majority of cryptocurrency investors are currently people aged 45+, we are talking about residents of almost 80 countries. The research was carried out by experts of the Wirex platform in conjunction with the Stellar Development Foundation, who studied the income in the cryptocurrency industry in 24 months. As a result, it turned out that only 22% of investors are between 25 and 45 years old. Back in 2018, the situation was fundamentally the opposite. Then, many experts noted that cryptocurrencies are assets of the so-called millennials who are ready to invest in new instruments. However, over the past two years, many middle-aged people have joined the industry, deciding to convert some of their assets to bitcoin or other coins.

- Experts from the Weiss rating agency believe that bitcoin could reach the $50,000 level in 2021. “The entry of institutional capital into the cryptocurrency industry has become one of the fundamental events. Grayscale and MicroStrategy have already invested in digital assets. Other large companies and funds are thinking about investing in bitcoin. If the inflow of investments continues to increase, then we will see the main coin at 50 thousand dollars and even more expensive very soon, " according to Weiss.

- The head of the ARK Investment Management investment company, Katie Wood, believes that more and more companies will store part of their reserves in bitcoin in the future, hedging their risks in this way. She stated this in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “This is especially true of technology companies that understand this and are comfortable with cryptocurrencies,” added the head of ARK Investment.

- Former head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Janet Yellen became the first woman in history to serve as US Treasury Secretary. When heading the Fed from 2014-2018, Yellen called the first cryptocurrency a speculative asset. However, following her nomination as finance minister in November 2020, she changed her rhetoric, promising to closely monitor the industry and consider ways to encourage the legitimate use of digital assets. According to her, regulators can use the advantages of cryptocurrencies to improve the efficiency of the financial system.

- US resident Simon Berne created a mining farm of six Nvidia RTX 3080 video cards and placed it in the trunk of his BMW i8 sports car. (The price of such a car is about $147,500). According to Berne, this is a great way for him to make money even while traveling. He made the assembly of the farm himself to annoy gamers. The farm receives energy from the car battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter. The battery power of the BMW i8 is 3500W, while the mining plant only consumes 1500W.

- Crypto bank Galaxy Digital by Mike Novogratz will launch new funds based on Ethereum in February. We are talking about the Galaxy Ethereum Fund targeted at institutional investors and two funds for retail clients. As for the Galaxy Ethereum Fund, 1% will be charged for management there on investments from 100 thousand dollars and 1.25% for smaller investments. The threshold for participation will be $25,000. In the other two funds, the fee would be 0.75% for Class A shares and 1% for Class B shares. The launch of Galaxy Digital funds coincides with the start of Ethereum futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

- Most of the cryptocurrency supporters are familiar with the idiom "to the moon". And now, 22-year-old American Jimmy Donaldson known for his crazy antics, such as giving away $1 million and building the world's largest Lego tower, decided to turn that expression into reality. (Donaldson is also known as YouTuber MrBeast with over 50 million subscribers.)
“Astrobotics and NASA are sending a lander to the moon at the end of this year, we were able to find a place on it to install a hard drive. And I thought it would be great to let you guys put whatever you want there,” wrote MrBeast. He announced that for $10, anyone could send him a photo, which he would save on this hard drive. With the money received, Donaldson plans to purchase about 30 bitcoins (about $1 million), which will also be sent to the moon. The Youtuber called this project "The first digital time capsule in the Universe."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
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