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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews

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- Microsoft has published a patent application for a device called “Cryptocurrency system that uses data on body activity.” Apparently, the device will be designed to use human energy for mining cryptocurrencies. The document says that this will be a set of sensors with a module that converts the energy of the human body. According to some experts, "brain waves in the process of human activity emit a huge amount of energy, and this type of activity can easily be translated into computing power." Microsoft representatives have not yet commented on the new product, however, according to insider information, the device may appear on sale before the beginning of 2021, unless it is an April Fool’s joke.

- Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market may exceed 90% by the end of the crisis, instead of the current 66%. According to the expert, "during the period of the entire market drawdown, large investors prefer to work with proven cryptocurrencies. Most often, they choose Bitcoin, since its volatility does not look potentially dangerous. Other coins do not show so good results. We can single out Ethereum among the promising assets, but even it is currently trading in the red zone."
Cao Wang also drew attention to the fact that many investors prefer to invest in the US dollar at the moment. However, if the global crisis becomes even larger, some of them will rush to the cryptocurrency market, where, due to lack of experience, they will buy Bitcoin, considering it the main and most reliable digital currency.

- Option traders believe that Bitcoin will not be able to update the historical high of $20,000 this year. According to the Skew analytical platform, the probability of this event is only 4%. Experts say that the May halving has ceased to be a driver of future growth rate of the asset. In all the options that analysts have studied, an extremely small part of speculators bet on Bitcoin exceeding the $10,000 mark. Most of the traders believe that the cryptocurrency will continue to trade in the range of $5,000-6,000.

- The CEO of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao is often criticized for his overly expressive statements that can encourage subscribers to take irresponsible actions. This time, Zhao called for the purchase of Bitcoins, even on credit. "An insane amount of money will soon flow into the financial system. Buy cryptocurrencies with your Visa cards, " Zhao tweeted.
Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with Changpeng Zhao. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion to maintain liquidity in connection with the economic crisis makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. "How much did we pay Trump to advertise Bitcoin?"- joked the top manager.
But another well-known analyst and trader, Peter Brandt, believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can't demonstrate steady growth against the backdrop of the fall of the traditional financial market.

- According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has grown by 60% in three years and reached a record high of 800 thousand. The previous record was set at the end of 2017, when the exchange rate of the main digital coin set a historical high at $20,000. At that time, the number of such wallets was about 720 thousand. Since then, the number of addresses with a balance of at least one coin has been growing all the time, with the exception of the end of 2018, when the Bitcoin exchange rate collapsed to $3,200, their number fell to 690 thousand.
Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. According to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%. "This influx of new users to the exchange is not due to the fact that people have nothing to do in quarantine during the pandemic. Most likely, people want to use the crisis and gain independence from the "outdated" financial system," says Pierre Rochard, a specialist in strategic development at Kraken.

- Hackers have recently repeatedly broken into popular accounts on YouTube and have used them to arrange fake distributions of cryptocurrencies on behalf of famous people. This time, the scammers hacked more than thirty different YouTube channels, renamed them to allegedly various Microsoft brands, and broadcast through them a speech by Bill Gates in June 2019. At the same time, along with the "live broadcast", the scammers showed ads for a "prize draw", in which users were asked to send a certain amount in cryptocurrencies, which they allegedly would double in response.

- The Kraken exchange believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $350,000 by 2044. This will be facilitated by the transition of a $68 trillion inheritance of capital from the "baby boomers" to the younger generations. Kraken experts gave a quantitative assessment of the potential flow of inherited capital into Bitcoin. According to their base scenario, with a tax of 2% and a peak of placing funds in the cryptocurrency at 5% of inherited assets, the inflow of investment in Bitcoin will be $971 billion. Based on the difference between the current issue of BTC and the expected figure for 2044, the price of the main cryptocurrency can reach $349,255. Even according to the most conservative estimate of exchange specialists, it will be around $70,000.


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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CORONAVIRUS: NOT TIME TO GET SICK, TIME TO PROFIT


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Because of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the crypto market, Forex, and exchanges are all going down. "This is a great time to make a profit! Go to quarantine, stay at home and ... earn!"- experts of the brokerage company NordFX advise


The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic continues to control the global markets. Countries are being quarantined, factories and offices are empty, and authorities are urging their citizens not to leave their homes. Of course, it is a forced measure, and there is nothing good about it. But there is still one advantage there: now we have much more time not only for active trading, but also for training and improving our own trading strategies.

Until recently, many crypto gurus convinced us to invest in Bitcoin, which, they said, was to protect us in the event of a crisis in the traditional markets. However, the onset of the coronavirus proved the complete failure of this theory: it turned out that instead of growing, the main cryptocurrency can fall very quickly along with currencies, oil and stock indexes.
In just one month from February 12 to March 13, it lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater: up to $3,815, and reached 63%. Bitcoin lost up to half of its value only in one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market to the bottom. Quite a safe haven!

And if passive investors who invested money in Bitcoin in the hope that its price, as a result of the halving or just for no reason, will soar to the cosmic heavens, experience only disappointment, active traders, on the contrary, have received another opportunity to make a large profit.

Recall that international brokers such as NordFX, unlike crypto exchanges, provide traders with significantly more opportunities to increase their capital.

First, NordFX clients have the opportunity to earn both on the growth and the fall of cryptocurrencies, which is very important in the conditions of such a high market volatility. At the same time, in order to make money on the fall of the Bitcoin, you do not need to have it at all: trading is similar to the CFD contracts for difference. You just open a sell trade in the trading terminal, and if the coin quotes go down, you will get a profit.

Secondly, this profit can be very high, because the broker provides its clients with the opportunity of margin trading. So, you just need the following to open trades on cryptocurrency pairs in NordFX:
- $150 to open a position of 1 Bitcoin
- $15 to open a position of 1 Ethereum
- $0.3 to open a position of 1 EOS
- $0.02 to open a position of 1 Ripple.

That is, to buy or sell 1 Bitcoin at the current price, you do not need to have $6000, but only $150 is enough, which allows you to make a profit 40 times greater than in normal trading without margin. So, in just one month from February 12 to March 13, you could have made a profit of 4000% on the fall of BTC.

In total, NordFX clients have the opportunity to make transactions with 11 cryptocurrency pairs. The order execution speed is less than 0.5 seconds. Deposits are in US dollars, Bitcoins or Ethereum at the customer's choice, and the minimum deposit is only $10.

And third, another important point is the ability to hedge transactions on cryptocurrencies, opening parallel positions on the Forex market (33 currency pairs), or trading gold, silver, oil, shares of leading global companies or major stock indices such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc. And here, just as in the case of cryptocurrencies, you can earn not only on the growth of the price of these assets, but also on its fall. At the same time, the broker will immediately, automatically and without any collateral provide you with a leverage of up to 1:1000 for currency pairs. That is, if you have, for example, only $100, you can make transactions worth $100,000.

Summing up the above, we can say that the onset of the coronavirus is not a time to indulge in boredom, discouragement, and even more so, panic. This is a time to earn money, and self-isolation can bring real benefits to your health and finances. Quarantines begin and end, life goes on!

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 06 - 10, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in March. But the data on the US labor market looks just terrifying: 6.648 million applications for unemployment benefits, this figure has increased by 10 million in two weeks, which is equivalent to 6% of the entire labor force. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector went down: -705K in March instead of +275K in February. Other indicators are no better. It is possible that the unemployment will jump higher than during the great depression. And at the same time, the dollar has been growing all week, taking away more than 350 points from the euro, which indicates that the market was already ready for such a collapse of the US economy and took this into account in its quotes in advance. The dollar was also helped by statements from President Trump and the Saudi Energy Ministry about a possible return to the negotiations in the OPEC+ format and an end to the oil war. Although, there is as little clarity on this front as on the front of the fight against the COVID-19 coronavirus.
At the end of the week, having made a five-day walk to the south this time, the EUR/USD pair reached a strong support/resistance zone around 1.0800, where it set the final chord;

- GBP/USD. The most accurate forecast for this pair was given by graphical analysis, which predicted the sideways movement of the pair, which looks truly amazing. The pair stayed in the range of 1.2245-1.2485 for the whole week, and the scope of its fluctuations did not exceed 240 points, which, according to the current violent times, can be considered a flat. Some analysts believe that the reason for this is the increased interest of investors in the sharply cheaper pound in the first two decades of March, which leveled the current problems in the British economy;

- USD/JPY. A similar pattern to the GBP/USD is also visible on the chart of this pair, which also stayed in a 180-point wide side channel all week (106.90-108.70). And this is despite the fact that the dollar index for the week rose by 2.5%. One of the versions that explains this behavior of both pairs is that investors and speculators were so caught up in the struggle between the two "titans", the dollar and the Euro, that they postponed a serious game on the pound and the yen for the future, when it is clear what is happening with the two leading economies of the world and what the next actions of their regulators are;

– cryptocurrencies. Recall that when analyzing the situation on the crypto market, we use a seven-day interval from previous Saturday to current Friday. The volatility of BTC/USD during this period was about 23%: having fallen on Monday, March 30 to the level of $5,870, the pair turned around and reached its peak of $7,260 on Thursday, April 02, followed by a rebound down, and the quotes were again below the level of $7,000. If you look at the chart, you can clearly see that for three weeks now, the bulls have been persistently trying to break through this resistance and gain a foothold above $7,000, but to no success so far. Due to the crisis caused by the coronavirus, investors are quite cautious, not risking transferring large amounts of fiat into cryptocurrencies. During the week, the market capitalization of the crypto market has not changed and is at the level of $256 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index does not leave the red zone: it was at 9 two weeks ago, seven days later its value was 12, and now it is 14 out of 100 possible, which still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market.
As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD), they, following the main cryptocurrency, also formed figures called "ascending triangle", trying to rise and gain a foothold above their own resistance zones: Ripple – above $0.18, Litecoin – $41, and Ethereum – $145.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The regulators, both the Fed and the ECB, are now trying to put out the fire by flooding their markets with cheap money. But the fire of the corona crisis was so strong that it could not be controlled quickly. The data on the US economy for March leaves one speechless. But this is not all, the data for April, which we will see in a month, may look much more dramatic. In addition, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is growing day by day, and its policy of easing reduces the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven currency. These arguments allow analysts at Nordea Markets to say that the EUR/USD pair is more likely to return to 1.1500 rather than to fall to 1.0000.
On the other hand, even in the Eurozone, despite the current account surplus, things are not running smoothly. Germany and other Northern European countries that are members of the EU have recently rejected the offer of Italy, France, Spain and six other Euro zone countries to issue joint bonds – coronabonds. Whether they can overcome their differences will become clear in the very near future, on Tuesday, April 07, a meeting of the Eurogroup consisting of EU Finance Ministers is due to take place, and on Wednesday, April 08, the ECB meeting on monetary policy will be held. Also, the results of the OPEC meeting on Monday April 06 and the results of the Fed meeting on April 08 may affect the formation of trends.
Meanwhile, 65% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators, expect the downtrend to continue and the pair will decline to the lows of March 20-23 in the 1.0650 zone. The next support is at the level of 1.0500, the goal is the low of 1.0340 on January 01, 2017.
It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a medium-term forecast, the situation changes radically, and here 65% of analysts expect that the pair will turn around at the end of April – in May, first it will return to the height of 1.1100, then 1.1240, and eventually rise to the level of 1.1500. At the same time, 45% of experts do not exclude that this may happen in the nearest future;
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- GBP/USD. After such a difficult decision to leave the EU, the British regulators are doing everything possible to stabilize the economic situation. Against this background, 20% of analysts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair's sideways trend to continue in the range of 1.2245-1.2485. 50% of experts expect the channel to break down and reduce the pair to the 1.1640-1.1940 zone. The remaining 30%, on the contrary, side with the bulls, indicating the resistance levels of 1.2475, 1.2625 and 1.2840. As for the indicators, while most of the trend indicators are colored red, there is a complete discord among the oscillators: 25% on D1 signal that the pair is overbought, and the same amount on H4 show that it is oversold;

- USD/JPY. 60% of analysts expect from this pair a breakout of the 108.70 resistance and a strengthening of the dollar to the level of 111.65. Further growth of the pair remains in question, as several attempts between March 20 and 25 were unsuccessful.
Bear supporters among experts are now a minority - 40%, the nearest goal is to return to the lower border of the corridor 106.90-108.70. If it is broken through, the pair will first rush to the support of 105.00, then to 103.15, and then to the low of March 09 at the level of 101.15. It is difficult to say how long the pair will be able to cover this distance but considering the recent flights of 700 points a week, it can happen quite quickly.
As for the indicators, the discord is similar to the GBP/USD. On H4, 70% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored green, while the rest are red. On D1, the picture is diametrically opposite. A compromise situation is offered by graphical analysis on H4: first growth to the zone of 111.00, then a sharp drop first to the support of 108.00, and then another 100 points lower;

– cryptocurrencies. Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that the dominance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market by the end of the crisis may exceed 90%, instead of the current 66%, as large investors prefer to work with the most reliable and proven coins during the market drawdown. At the same time, according to the Skew analytical platform, based on a survey of option trading participants, the BTC/USD pair will not be able to update the historical maximum of $20,000 this year, the probability of this event is only 4%. An extremely small part of option speculators bets even on a growth above the $10,000 mark.
However, investors are still pinning their hopes on the printing press launched by the Central banks of the leading countries due to the crisis. "An insane amount of money will soon be poured into the financial system," Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance crypto exchange, tweeted. Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with him. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. It is logical that, with the surplus of the fiat subject to depreciation, investors will again turn to the cryptocurrency market, and the BTC quotes will go up sharply.
The data from the analytical service Glassnode also look optimistic, according to which the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has reached a record high of 800 thousand. Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno have also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. For example, according to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%.
As for the pessimists, we can refer to the well-known analyst and trader Peter Brandt, who believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can not demonstrate steady growth against the background of the fall of the traditional financial market.
And in conclusion, another very long-term forecast, which will undoubtedly please even those who once purchased Bitcoin for $20,000 and since then have been watching its quotes with sadness. According to Kraken experts, the price of Bitcoin can reach $350,000 by 2044, which should be facilitated by the transition in the form of a $68 trillion inheritance from "baby boomers" to younger, "digital" generations. So, it's not a total loss, ladies and gentlemen!


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews


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- The Weiss Ratings rating agency experts believe that completely anonymous cryptocurrencies will help to resist measures to track citizens. Authorities in many countries are now trying to monitor every person to counter the spread of coronavirus or attempts to make money from the epidemic in an illegal way. "But there should be a limit to everything, "the Agency believes, "personal space should not threatened. The same applies to financial transactions that will not affect the coronavirus or the pandemic in any way. If anonymous cryptocurrencies can replace fiat by at least 10 percent, surveillance will not be effective, which is why government bodies will begin to abandon it."

- According to the head of UnionBank, Edwin Bautista, the transition of the banking sector to cryptocurrency against the background of the coronavirus pandemic looks very realistic. If the situation on the currency market does not stabilize, this measure will be the only one that will save the situation and save the economy. "Now almost all products are paid for online. We may see a period of complete rejection of fiat money in cash. If banks support the initiative of small regulators who already cooperate with cryptocurrency companies, the industry will reach a new level," Bautista believes.

- The management company VanEck Global experts conclude that against the background of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin is increasingly correlated with gold. In the short term, this strengthens the cryptocurrency's status as a safe haven asset. "Bitcoin's correlation with gold has reached a level never seen before," VanEck Global said in a report. However, in the long term, this indicator remains quite low. Experts also stress that the correlation of the main cryptocurrency with the value of the US bonds, which traditionally serve as a safe haven for investors during stock market selloffs, has also increased.

- P2p platform Paxful has launched Bitcoin trading for physical gold. Paxful consider their offer unique: no other P2P market gives such an opportunity to use gold as a payment for cryptocurrencies. "In a sense, it is symbolic to trade gold in a pair with its virtual embodiment, Bitcoin," commented CEO of the platform Ray Youssef.

- The analytical company Coinmetrics believes that the current market offer of Bitcoin at 18.3 million coins does not reflect the real liquidity. According to their data, since 2.3 million BTC have been left without movement for more than five years, they are either permanently lost or concentrated in the hands of long-term investors. A similar situation has developed with Bitcoin Cash. After the hard fork in 2017, 6 million BCH were lost sight of, which reduces the real market supply to 12.4 million coins.

- To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the US largest Bitcoin ATM operator, Bitcoin Depot, has started disabling some of its ATMs. This applies primarily to devices installed in the most crowded places and should help to distance people in the face of the epidemic. "We are monitoring the situation, and the number of ATMs temporarily disconnected from the network is likely to increase," a company representative said. In total, the Bitcoin Depot network has more than 600 bitcoin ATMs in 25 States.

- The Spanish tax Agency (AEAT) notes that the number of taxpayers carrying out transactions with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has increased four times over the year. For the first time, Spanish crypto investors and traders received notifications from the tax service in 2019, and there were 14,700 people at that time. This year, AEAT will send out similar reminders to 66 thousand taxpayers. At the same time, the Agency stressed that the mailing schedule will not be disrupted, despite the raging COVID-19 epidemic in the country.

- Mike Stay, who holds a doctorate in computer science and cryptography, published an article about hacking an encrypted zip file. The latter was very valuable, because it stored the keys to Bitcoin wallets with coins worth $300 thousand at the current exchange rate. He was asked to do this by a client who bought cryptocurrency back in 2016 but forgot the password to the archive with keys. This is one of the rare cases when people manage to "find" their long-forgotten Bitcoins. Passwords are usually irrevocably forgotten, flash drives with keys are accidentally thrown out, and it is only these combinations of characters that connect the crypto investor with their assets. -

Experts are monitoring how North Korea continues to import and export goods despite the fact that numerous sanctions are applied against it. Chainalysis representative Jesse Spiro said in a conversation with CoinDesk that, according to their assumptions, this country uses illegally obtained cryptocurrencies worth $1.5 billion in retail networks and launders stolen money in this way. "The problem of countries that are subject to sanctions is that they need to move money across borders to conduct illegal trade. When it comes to North Korea, there is no doubt that cryptocurrencies are involved."

- The story of buying two pizzas for 10 thousand Bitcoins is not a fiction at all, but a real story that will celebrate its 10th anniversary on May 22, 2020. Its participants are programmer Laszlo Hanich and Papa John’s pizza delivery man Jeremy Sturdivant. Recall that Bitcoin was less than two years old at that time, the price of each coin was only a fraction of a cent, and there was no experience of payments in cryptocurrency at all. And in that situation, a programmer from Florida, Laszlo Hanich, wrote a request on the Bitcointalk forum that read: "I will pay 10,000 bitcoins for a couple of pizzas, say, for a couple of large ones – so that there is some left for the next day as well." The offer was received by Hanich only on the 4th day, and the transaction took place on Internet Relay Chat (IRC). Jeremy Sturdivant agreed to the payment method, delivering two large Papa John’s pizzas to Hanich, costing $25. Today, 10,000 BTC is worth almost $71 million. It is believed that this was the first ever transaction to buy a real product for Bitcoins. 10, 000 BTC are worth more than $ 71 million now and you can buy 5.6 million pizzas with them!


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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 13 - 17, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Old and the New Worlds continue to compete to see who will pour more money into their economies. But what is the old Europe compared to the United States! On Thursday, April 10, after many days of discussion, the EU Finance Ministers narrowly reached a compromise, concluding a deal on measures to support their countries in the amount of "some" €500 billion. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve announced the launch of another $2.3 trillion support program. At the same time, the Head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that his Department will most likely not stop there and will do everything in order to restore the US economy as quickly as possible after the epidemic.
Powell is to be trusted in this regard. And the point here is not only the COVID-19, but also that 2020 is the year of the next US Presidential election, and Donald Trump really wants to stay in the White House for a second term. The growth of the US economy has been a major asset in his fight for the presidency.
The unwinding flywheel of the quantitative easing program in the United States could not but put pressure on the dollar, and the USDX index closed trading below the psychological level of 100.0 on April 09. As for the EUR/USD pair, the dollar began to retreat starting from Monday. However, this retreat was not as panicky as in the last week of March, when the pair overcame 510 points. Now the euro has grown by less than 200 points, after which the pair ended the five-day period in the 1.0940 zone, and did not reach the landmark level of 1.1000;

- GBP/USD. The dollar retreated against the pound as well. Besides the above, an additional factor that supported the British currency was the continued growth of borrowing rates in pounds in London and a decrease in borrowing rates in US dollars.
Recall that, giving a forecast for the past week, 20% of analysts had expected the continuation of the sideways trend of the pair in the range of 1.2245-1.2485, and another 30% – its movement from the lower to the upper border of this channel, indicating the level of 1.2475 as resistance. As a result, the overall forecast of these experts turned out to be correct: having failed to fall below the support of 1.2200, the pair turned north and ended the trading session at 1.2470;

- USD/JPY. 60% of analysts had expected this pair to break the 108.70 resistance and the dollar to strengthen to the level of 111.65. The breakthrough occurred, however, the volatility of the Japanese currency was surprisingly low, and the growth of the pair stopped at the height of 109.37, after which it returned to where it started on Monday, to the zone of 108.40;

– cryptocurrencies. Some experts, trying to improve the status of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, convince us that digital gold can become a safe haven for investors on a par with real gold. Thus, specialists of the management company VanEck Global concluded that "the correlation of Bitcoin with gold has reached an unprecedented level" against the background of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Indeed, the quotes of both assets are now growing. The XAU/USD and BTC/USD charts show that since March 16, 2020, the gold has risen by 16%, while Bitcoin has grown by as much as 55%. However, if you move just 4 days and start counting not from March 16, but from March 20, the picture will be completely different: the gold has grown by almost 14%, but the increase in the price of Bitcoin over the past three weeks was equal to ... zero.
This suggests that with its ultra-volatility, bitcoin remains a great tool for short-term speculation. But to use it as a safe haven and, even more so, an object for investment, is still questionable. By the way, analysts from VanEck Global agree with this, noting that they only meant a short period of time. In the long term, the correlation between XAU/USD and BTC/USD remains quite low.
In our previous forecast, we noted that, starting from March 20, the main cryptocurrency is unsuccessfully trying to gain a foothold above the $7,000 level. The past week was no exception. The bulls broke through this resistance on April 06 and even reached the height of $7,440, but they again lost their positions on Friday, and the pair fell to the $6,850-6,900 zone.
As for the total capitalization of the crypto market, it has not changed much over the week and is around $193 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also not changed, it still indicates the presence of strong fear in the market, having risen by just one point over the week, from 14 to 15.
Such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD) followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency, but, in contrast, they were still in the green zone in the afternoon of Friday, April 10, showing a weekly increase from 5% (Litecoin and Ripple) to 10% (Ethereum).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Needless to say, the situation with the coronavirus epidemic in the United States is very difficult, and the economy of this country is teetering on the verge of a deep depression. To support its producers, the Fed has launched a quantitative easing program and, starting on March 16, has already purchased $1.19 trillion in Treasury bonds. The regulator will buy more securities worth $150 billion next week, which will continue to put pressure on the dollar. This is why 65% of experts expect the EUR/USD uptrend to continue. The resistance levels are 1.1000, and 1.1240 1.1150.
On the other hand, the dollar is still the best currency during the crisis. It was this fact that stopped its active sales last week and is quite capable, according to the remaining 35% of analysts, to reverse the trend to the south again. The targets are 1.1100 and 1.1175;
One can understand what the indicators show just by looking at the charts of the pair. On D1, everything is quite colorful¬: there are about the same amounts of green, red and neutral gray colors. On H4, of course, green dominates, but 25% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone.
As for the macroeconomic indicators, one should first of all pay attention to the retail sales and the number of initial unemployment claims in the US, which will be known on April 15 and April 16, respectively. Also, the data on China's GDP will help to assess the impact of the coronavirus on the economy, which will be released on Friday April 17;

- GBP/USD. The British currency is now in good demand due to the difference between the rates for the pound and the dollar in the interbank lending market. However, everything can change in an instant. That is why experts' forecasts cannot be brought to any common denominator: 40% vote for the pair's growth, 35% – for its fall, and 25% simply shrug their shoulders.
The pair is in the side channel for the second week, holding in the range of 1.2200-1.2485, and it will start from its upper border on Monday, April 13. Graphical analysis on H4 shows its further growth to the horizon of 1.2600 and a subsequent fall to the support of 1.2200. The range of fluctuations is slightly larger on D1: first rising to the height of 1.2650, and then falling to the level of 1.2175. The situation with the indicators is generally similar to the readings on the EUR/USD, 25% of the oscillators on both timeframes indicate that the pair is overbought;

- USD/JPY. The number of dollars in the global financial system, the yield on the US Treasury bonds, stock indices and oil quotes, the state of the economy of China - all these factors affect the attractiveness of the yen as a safe haven currency. The zero result of the USD/JPY pair last week indicates that the market has not yet decided what to do with the Japanese currency, buy or sell. Most likely, we should not expect any independent movements from this pair, and its dynamics will reflect the overall market mood relative to the US dollar.
Meanwhile, 60% of experts vote for a further weakening of the dollar and the fall of the pair to around 107.00. The next support is in the 104.75-105.15 zone. The alternative view is supported by 40% of analysts. Resistance levels are 109.35, 110.15 and 111.70;

– cryptocurrencies. According to the Head of UnionBank, Edwin Bautista, the transition of the banking sector to cryptocurrency against the background of the coronavirus pandemic looks very realistic. If the situation in the currency market does not stabilize, this measure will be the only one that will save the situation and keep the economy running. "Now almost all products are paid for online. We may see a period of complete rejection of fiat money in cash. If banks support the initiative of small regulators who already cooperate with cryptocurrency companies, the industry will reach a new level," Bautista believes.
But the statement of the Head of UnionBank is at least a medium-term forecast. And what awaits us in the near future? Mid-April is the beginning of the corporate reporting season. And the indicators of both individual companies and entire sectors of the economy are very likely to be extremely low. The Fed and the ECB continue to flood the fire with cheap liquidity, which will cause a powerful wave of inflation.
In such a situation, and especially if there is an excess mass of fiat money, speculators may again decide to play the card of Bitcoin as a safe haven currency. In this case, Bitcoin will soon not just break the $7,000 and $7,400 levels, but also aim above the $8,000 mark. 60% of experts vote for this development.
There is, of course, the opposite, the bearish scenario, supported by 40% of analysts. And it also depends largely on what will happen in the US, where class-action lawsuits were filed a week ago against four major Bitcoin exchanges and seven ICO projects, including Binance, BitMex and EOS. These lawsuits allege possible violations of U.S. law by the defendants, including the rules for the issuance and circulation of securities. And if the SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) grabs this case with a dead bulldog grip, Bitcoin will quickly break through the support of $6,700, and we will again see the pair in the region of $6,000.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews


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- The FBI reported the crypto scam to activate against the background of the coronavirus pandemic. Secret services have also compiled a list of most common types of fraud related to finance:
- Blackmail. Criminals send out phishing fake emails, which state that they already have access to the users' personal data. In exchange for passwords, they require payment in Bitcoins. According to experts, it is quite often that the scammers' statements have nothing to do with reality, but people still believe them.
- Donations. This type of criminal activity has become most popular against the background of the coronavirus pandemic. The scammers say they are raising money for the transfer of funds supporting healthcare organizations and COVID-19 patients.
- Investments. Criminals began to launch new scams that look very realistic. These organizations call to invest in new assets or the purchase of mining equipment.

- Despite the fact that the number of transactions on crypto scam addresses has grown during the crisis caused by COVID-19, their incomes have declined, according to Chainalysis analyst firm. The amount of funds received by the scammers per day has fallen by 61% in the period from March 13 to the end of the month. The index rose just above $ 400,000 in early April. For comparison, it reached almost $800 thousand in January.

- The head of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said in an interview for Bloomberg TV, that the Bitcoin time has come. Less than a month is left before the halving takes place, as a consequence, investors should be prepared for serious differences of cost of the basic cryptocurrency, and if the optimistic scenario of the miners' awards halving is to be implemented, then now is the time to buy Bitcoins.
The large-scale expansion of the crypto sphere has already begun. If the trend continues, the bitcoin capitalization will increase by several times by the time of the halving. The popularity of not only digital assets, but also of blockchain is apparentas well. Many countries start to use a blockchain registry even in public areas. An example of this can be China, which has even created a special commission to develop the blockchain. All this takes place during the coronavirus pandemic. When the situation is normalized, there may happen a real technological leap", said the billionaire.

- Finance expert Dan Toper expresses his opinion as to what can interfere with the growth of Bitcoin. According to the expert, it is a policy of the US government, trying to provoke a stock market recovery. "The USA are trying by all means to restore the economy, but the process may be delayed due to the pandemic, and a number of other important circumstances, including the dollar depreciation. Due to the support of the fiat market, Bitcoin does not receive the support of investors, resulting in the opposite effect', says Toper. The expert noted that the Bitcoin decline of 20 percent in March with just one instance of drawdown by about 50 percent indicates an increased correlation of the market of digital assets and securities. The correlation of the main coin with the gold and the dollar is gradually reduced, which can be seen on the price fluctuations.

- One-third of those who have nothing to do with cryptocurrency, associate digital assets with the purchase of weapons and drugs. In fact, cryptocurrency owners often use it to pay for everyday goods. These results have been published by the Visual Objects consulting agency. The statistics experts found that most often the digital assets owners have spent them on food (38%), clothes (34%) and equities (29%). At the same time, drugs and weapons purchase was admitted by 15% and 11% respectively.

- evening of April 10 The Bitfinex crypto exchange implemented the ever largest transaction of 161 500 BTC, or about $1.1 billion which is the largest in the Bitcoin history in dollar terms. At the same time the commission was only 0.00010019 BTC, or $0.68. Thus, this transaction can be considered unique in Bitcoin history not only in terms of a transfer, but also in terms of the commission paid, of less than one dollar. Of course, this is another example of the superiority of cryptocurrency over the traditional banking system. A similar bank transfer would not only take a few days but would cost the sender an amount with a few zeros in the form of commissions. not to mention the need to explain the origin of the funds.

- Due to the inability of the authorities to manage cryptocurrency, the crisis will have a positive impact on its spread. This was said by economist, Professor John Vaz of the Australian Monash University in an interview with news portal Cointelegraph. "The more errors on the part of regulatory agencies, the higher the chances of success for the digital assets", the expert believes. "The strange thing is that some see the dollar now as a tool for to preserve the value. This is probably the most poorly managed asset. In this aspect cryptocurrencies are more attractive, since there are no banks or governments who steal losses and privatize profits on them."

- Last week, the Taiwanese manufacturer HTC Electronics announced that it will allow EXODUS 1S smartphone owners mine cryptocurrency Monero (XMR). According to the developers, this approach is more efficient than the use of ordinary home computers. The co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin lashed out against this. "The mining on the phone is a game for fools. It is contrary to everything we know about savings on the scale in equipment, and probably this action is aimed at deceiving users by means of false hopes, rather than a real help", he wrote.

- The number of addresses that store more than 1000 BTC, has increased to the two years' high. GlassNode agency experts said that cryptocurrency holders actively accumulate positions over the past two weeks in anticipation of the main coin's halving. "The number of major Bitcoin holders began to increase almost immediately after the March collapse of the value of the base currency. Many investors decided then to get rid of the fiat savings, transferring them into cryptocurrency. Now all rely on at least a double jump of Bitcoin, but it is difficult to make such predictions in the conditions of daily changes in the situation", GlassNode analysts say.


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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 20 - 24, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has amounted to 22 million over the past four weeks. For comparison, this figure remained at the level of about 930 thousand in the previous few years. In other words, the unemployment has increased 23 times! The number of employed in the US was just over 150 million, so the losses caused by the COVID-19 crisis approached 15% of all jobs.
Major banks, such as Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, have updated their forecasts and expect that the collapse of the US economy could reach a catastrophic 40%. And the head of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, James Boulard, said that every third American will be left without work soon.
But things are not better in Europe, and this keeps the EUR/USD pair from sharp fluctuations. The actions of the Administration and the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate the U.S. economy also help the dollar. As a result, the maximum volatility last week was less than 180 points, which at present time can be considered flat. As for the final changes in quotes, the figure is even lower: the pair lost only 70 points in five days, ending the session at 1.0870;

- GBP/USD. The British currency also shows “Olympic calm”, even though both the IMF and domestic forecasts predict that Britain's economy may be among the most affected by the pandemic, and the decline in the GDP in the second quarter could reach 35 per cent.$ For the third week in a row, the GBP/USD pair returns to 1.2500 again and again. According to some experts, now, while the attention of investors is focused on S&P500 and the dollar, the pound received a respite after the collapse in the second decade of March and the subsequent correction.
As the graphical analysis on H4 predicted, the pound went up at the beginning of the week, reached a height of 1.2650, then turned around and sank to the horizon of 1.2400. The final chord sounded around the three-week Pivot Point, at 1.2500;

— USD/JPY. 60% of experts voted last week for further weakening of the dollar and decrease of the pair to marks around 107.00. This forecast turned out to be 100% correct: the pair reached its target on Wednesday, April 15, after which it rebounded and moved sideways in the narrow channel 107.15-108.05, completing the five-day period in its central part, at the level of 107.60;

– cryptocurrencies. It became known last week that the number of addresses, which store more than 1000 BTC, has increased to a two-year high. GlassNode agency experts said that cryptocurrency holders over the past two weeks have been actively accumulating positions in anticipation of the main coin halving. In their opinion, many investors are counting on a jump in bitcoin at least twice. But, GlassNode analysts warn, relying on such forecasts is not worth it, as the situation in the crisis caused by COVID-19 is changing daily.
Crypto scammers have also become more active against the background of the pandemic. The FBI even compiled a list of the most common types of such fraud, including blackmail with the threat of hacking personal data and collecting alleged donations to fight the coronavirus.
Interestingly, despite the increase in the number of transactions to the addresses of crypto-currency scammers, their income has decreased. According to Chainalysis. in early April, the amount of daily funds received by scammers was a little more than $400 thousand, while in January it was twice as much.
We noted in our previous forecasts that, starting from March 20, the main cryptocurrency has been unsuccessfully trying to gain a foothold above the $7,000 level. Last week was no exception. The battle of bulls and bears continues with varying success, keeping the main cryptocurrency in the channel $6,550-7,180. As for the total capitalization of the crypto market, it has not changed much during the week and is in the region of $200 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not changed either. Having stopped at the level of 15 out of 100 possible, it still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market.
Such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD), as usual, followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ethereum was slightly different, showing a 6.5% increase over the seven-day period.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If in the medium-term market expectations look rather gloomy, in the short term the plans to resuscitate the U.S. economy, announced by President Trump, have had a positive impact. The decline in the rate of coronavirus infection in the United States also helped. Some investors, having rejected macroeconomic data and forecasts, looked at the future with optimism, citing China as an example, where 100% of large companies and about 80% of small ones have already returned to normal operation.
At the moment, 60% of the experts, supported by 65% of the indicators on H4 and D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to fall to the level of 1.0750. The next target is a low of 1.0635. The remaining 40% of analysts still doubt the dollar, expecting the pair to grow at least to the height of 1.1000, and then, perhaps, 100 points higher.
Business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, are among the events of the upcoming week. All this data will be published on Thursday, April 23. The dynamics of orders for durable goods in the USA, which we will see on Friday, April 24, can also influence the formation of local trends;

- GBP/USD. On Thursday, April 23, business activity indicators will become known not only in Germany and the Eurozone, but also in the UK. In addition, unemployment data will be published on Tuesday, April 21, and the UK consumer price index on Wednesday, April 22.
As mentioned above, according to forecasts, this country may be among the most affected by the coronavirus, and unemployment can reach values comparable to the United States. The political and economic risks associated with Brexit have not been canceled either, there remains a lot of unresolved issues. However, investors hope that the final divorce from the EU will be postponed for a longer period or, at least in the current situation, the islanders will be able to trade better terms from Europe.
In this situation of uncertainty, the analysts' forecasts for the next week and month look equally uncertain: 15% of them vote for the growth of the pair, 25% - for its fall, and 60% simply shrugged. Indicator readings on H4 are also neutral, while on D1 75% of oscillators and 60% of trend indicators are colored green.
As for the graphical analysis, the picture here is somewhat different: on H4 and D1, it first draws a decline in the pair to supports 1.2335 and 1.2200, respectively, and then its return to the levels of 1.2500 and 1.2650;

- USD/JPY. The 107.00 zone has been a significant level of support/resistance for the yen for months and even years. It is close to it that the pair has been moving for the past few days. The vast majority of analysts (70%) predict that the pair will again try to break this level from top to bottom and, if successful, will drop to the 105.80 horizon. The next targets are 105.00 and 104.40.
Opponents of this development (they are 30%) believe that after the dramatic events of February-March, the yen has returned to the 107.60-110.00 corridor, where it will stay for the next few weeks. The nearest resistance is 108.40.
Indicators on both timeframes recommend opening short positions, but 15% of oscillators already signal that the pair is oversold;
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– cryptocurrencies. - The head of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said in an interview for Bloomberg TV, that the Bitcoin time has come. Less than a month is left before the halving, which is why investors should be prepared for serious changes in the cost of the main cryptocurrency, and if the optimistic scenario for sharing rewards for miners is implemented, now is the time to buy bitcoins. "If the trend continues, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase several times before halving," the billionaire believes.
Talking about the growing popularity of digital assets, Mike Novograts cites China as an example. But what will happen to bitcoin, when in addition to the paper yuan, there will also be a digital one? It is quite possible that it will pull on a significant share of investors' funds, primarily Chinese. So, in terms of the prospects of the main cryptocurrency, not everything is so rosy.
In addition, US authorities, whose goal is to restore the securities market, can also hinder the growth of bitcoin. “The USA are trying to rebuild the economy by all means, but the process can be delayed due to the pandemic and a number of other important circumstances, including the depreciation of the dollar. Due to the support of the fiat market, Bitcoin does not receive investor support,” said Dan Topier, a financier. In his opinion, the fall of bitcoin by 20% in March with a single case of drawdown by about 50%, speaks about increased correlation of the market of digital assets and securities. The connection of the main coin with gold and dollar is gradually decreasing.
Returning to the weekly forecasts and the possibility of the BTC/USD pair overcoming the resistance of $7,000, we note that 60% of experts vote for the pair's growth to the $7,200-7,800 zone. Interestingly, unlike Mike Novogratz, none of the analysts expect that the main cryptocurrency will be able to increase its value many times as a result of halving. The most ambitious forecasts barely reach the height of $9,000, and 35% of experts still expect the quotes to fall to the level of $5,700-6,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
NordFX Stocks Account: Buy on Panic, Sell on Euphoria



At the moment, stocks of 68 companies, including IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Coca-Cola, Mastercard, McDonalds, Microsoft, Volkswagen, UBER, eBay, Alibaba, Deutsche Bank and many others, are offered for trading to traders and investors.

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Trading is conducted on the well-known MetaTrader-4 platform. You can earn both on the growth and fall of stocks, opening both short and long positions on CFD contracts with a leverage of 1:5. The total commission for a round-turn transaction is only 0.2%. It should be borne in mind that a long position held at the dividend date receives the dividend amount, while the short position pays the dividend amount.

A clear advantage of the new account is the absence of a minimum deposit, which opens access to transactions on shares even for traders with limited financial resources. The minimum transaction volume is 1 lot, i.e. 1 share. And, for example, if the current share price of Amazon.com inc. is $1,850, which is a fairly large amount, the price of Hewlett Packard shares is $14, and Ford Motor Company is even less, only about $4. So, even with only $100, a trader can apply a variety of trading strategies and create different investment portfolios.

We know the old stock exchange rule: "buy on panic, sell on euphoria". Now, with the fear of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and the oil wars reigning on the stock markets, it may be time to think about opening long positions. This is especially true for the shares of those companies whose products and services may be most in demand during such a crisis. And this applies not only to pharmaceutical giants. For example, shares of Amazon.com went up by 15% in less than 10 days, from 12 to 19 March 2020. Twitter shares are also growing in recent days: well, what else can people locked in quarantine do but communicate on social networks?

In addition to trading stocks, NordFX clients also have the opportunity to make transactions with currencies, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, oil, and major stock indexes such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others.
You can learn more about the trading instruments specifications, as well as open an account, at the NordFX website or through the Trader's Cabinet.


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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
CryptoNews


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- Some Bitcoin miners are at danger due to negative oil prices. Miners are actively looking for cheap electricity in anticipation of the halving in order to keep competitive. In North America, several of these firms use energy from a gas torch generated by oil extraction or refining. And if the oil companies close under pressure of low or negative prices, it will hit the miners. The Great American Mining founder Marty Brent said in a comment for CoinDesk that just one field he works with can provide hundreds of megawatts for mining. According to the publication, such companies will remain profitable even if Bitcoin does not grow in 2020. But oil prices are one of the key variables in their business model.
- Malaysian law enforcement officers arrested Chinese attackers accused of cryptocurrency fraud. This is reported by news agency South China Morning Post. According to the police, the detainees formed groups in WeChat and QQ, where they persuaded potential investors to invest in their allegedly successful projects. A total of 14 people were arrested, who, in addition to 10 years of imprisonment for fraud, also face a fine and up to six lashes for violation of immigration legislation.

- According to a survey conducted by The Economist magazine commissioned by Crypto.com, 26% of respondents trust cryptocurrencies, while 38% of respondents believe cryptocurrencies unreliable. But the digital currencies of Central banks (CBDC) are trusted by the majority of respondents (54%). Among the main obstacles to the adoption of cryptocurrencies, respondents pointed to a lack of understanding of their application areas (44%) and technology safety (32%). In most cases (34%) cryptocurrencies are used for online payments, another 24% consider them as a short-term investment, 23% - as a long-term investment.

- U.S. citizens have started to receive $1200 allocated by the government as financial support during the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, the number of deposits of exactly the same amount on the American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase have increased by 4 times, as its head Brian Armstrong said in his Twitter account.

- According to analyst Peter Brandt, crypto traders should be cautious about the current market situation. During the discussion on Twitter Brandt noted that corporations hardly use cryptocurrencies, and, therefore, one should not expect them to support the cryptocurrency revolution. And although many accept Bitcoin as a means of storing wealth, this will not affect its rate. “What percentage of world trade is made through cryptocurrency? How many international corporations do their business with Bitcoin?" the expert asked. At the same time, he noted that over time, enterprises, especially financial organizations, will gradually switch to the use of digital currencies, but it will not necessarily be Bitcoin. In March, Peter Brandt wrote that BTC could fall to $1,000. In his opinion, if you look at the chart "without bias", the bottom may be even lower than this value.

- During the online crypto conference BlockDown, the CEO of ShapeShift (a company that offers digital asset trading via web and mobile platforms) Eric Voorhees predicted the future of the flagship cryptocurrency. He noted that Bitcoin has many opportunities for growth. So, the upcoming halving of block rewards may become a catalyst that will push its price to new historical highs. “I believe that it is possible the Bitcoin rate exceeds $50,000 in twelve months, the probability of this event is quite high - 80%”, Voorhees said. In his opinion, as unemployment rises and oil prices fall, investors will simply need a quiet harbour, which can be cryptocurrencies to a certain extent. But Voorhees said that he could be "completely wrong, because it is stupid to try to predict such things."

- Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital investment company Anthony Pompliano has announced in a recent interview that Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of a new long-term growth of 1288% — from current levels of $7,200 to $100,000. According to Pompliano, the macroeconomic background and the May halving will be the main reasons for the rise in the Bitcoin price, and the printing of money by Central banks around the world will force people to invest in anti-inflationary assets.

- Another forecast is given by the cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave. In July 2019, he gave a correct prediction of a decline in the BTC from $11,600 to $6,000 by the end of the year, saying that the first cryptocurrency was up to a parabolic drop. Now he has updated his long-term forecast using curve models based on the BTC price history. In his opinion, the bitcoin volatility will decline, but it will still face a few ups and downs. Dave the Wave expects the first cryptocurrency to grow to $130,000 by 2023 and then gradually decline to $40,000. Then, the Bitcoin exchange rate will again gradually grow, and by 2029 it could reach $400,000.


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Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 161
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex, Cryptocurrencies, Stocks. Forecast for April 27- May 01, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. While in the United States, decisions to allocate money to revive the economy are made quickly enough, in the Euro Zone this is a process that requires a long discussion and agreement between the participating countries. And this can not but put pressure on the euro. So, at its meeting on April 23, the European Council seems to have reached an agreement on measures to help the economy, suggesting that the European Commission create a Recovery Fund in the amount of approx. €1 trillion, but they could not clearly agree as to where to get this money from.
The US administration continues to flood its economy with money. The decision on the next tranche of almost $0.5 trillion, which, for the most part, will be used to support small businesses, was made last week. Apparently, such steps are beginning to bring results. At least the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 15% in the United States, while orders for capital goods rose from -0.8% to 0.1%.
The result of this distribution of forces was a smooth weakening of the Euro by about 100 points, which fully confirmed the forecast given by the majority (60%) of our experts, who had expected to see the pair in the 1.0750 support zone. This was followed by a correction and the pair finished at 1.0820;

- GBP/USD. Analysts' forecasts for the future of the British currency were quite vague. As for the dynamics of the pair, it was most accurately described by graphical analysis that predicted its decline in the first half of the week and the subsequent correction to the north in the second half. And so it happened: at first the pair felt for the local bottom at the level of 1.2245, then rose to the level of 1.2415, and completed the five-day period in the zone of 1.2365;

- USD/JPY. The 107.00 zone has been a significant level of support/resistance for months and even years. It is close to it that the pair has been moving for the past few days. The vast majority of analysts (70%) expected that bears would try to break this level from top to bottom, which they did throughout the week. However, none of the attempts was successful, the bears were not even able to approach the treasured horizon. As a result, the pair stayed in a very narrow side channel, 107.25-108.00, inside which, at the level of 107.40, it ended the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. Last week was very successful for Bitcoin. Throughout its first half, a fight continued for the height of $7,000. It started on March 20, and, as most analysts (60%) had expected, the victory, in the end, was with the bulls. On Thursday, April 23, the price of the main cryptocurrency reached the mark of $7.750 — the highest value Bitcoin has been able to rise to after the market collapse on March 12-13. Thus, the growth over this period has amounted to about 100%.
In addition to the upcoming BTC halving, the cryptocurrency market was assisted, according to several analysts, by the growing correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market (S&P 500) and oil. Bitcoin is still a risky asset, but it is gradually attracting more and more attention from serious investors. According to such an authoritative publication as Bloomberg, now that the world is in crisis, and states are printing huge amounts of money, Bitcoin has every chance of becoming a quasi-currency like a digital version of gold. And the researchers believe, it will successfully cope with this task.
After a dash of the BTC/USD pair to the height of $7,750, a rebound followed and on Friday, April 24, the pair moved to a sideways movement in a fairly narrow channel of $7,440-7,600. The total capitalization of the crypto market has passed the mark of $215 billion, adding about 7% over the week, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown from 15 to 20.
As for the top altcoins, their growth was much more modest. Ethereum (ETH/USD) grew by 8%, Ripple (XRP/USD) - by 2.5%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) returned to the Pivot Point level in the first half of April;

– stock market. Since the NordFX brokerage company offers its customers trading not only in the Forex and crypto markets, but also in transactions with stocks, stock indices, as well as investments in special investment funds, we decided to expand our review to this very important segment of financial markets.
The US stock market has been growing lately amid the news of the adoption by the Senate of a law on the allocation of additional state support in the amount of $ 484 billion. The growth of risk assets was also helped by expectations of a gradual resumption of economic activity. Two US States have already announced the partial lifting of the quarantine, and several more States are in line. Decisions on easing restrictions have also been made in a number of European countries.
Last week, the leaders of online services such as Amazon, Netflix, Apple showed their best performance, although Amazon is considered the choice of consumers, while Apple and Google are the communication services. But the shares of oil companies, in the conditions of the fall of the nearest futures for “black gold” to negative levels, did not please either their owners or traders who opened the they have long positions.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The US Federal Reserve continues to flood the markets with fantastic amounts of dollar liquidity, which, in theory, should lead to a depreciation of the dollar. But it's just a theory. According to forecasts, the us budget deficit will be $3.8 trillion or 18.6% of GDP, and the national debt will grow to 107% of GDP. However, the cost of servicing this debt will remain at the same acceptable level of 2% of GDP. This is due to falling rates on US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the external demand for US government debt is still high, which gives the Fed additional opportunities for an even softer monetary policy. Of course, this will not save the United States from a recession, but the damage to the European economy is expected to be much greater.
Among the most important events, first of all, we should pay attention to the decisions of the Fed and the ECB on interest rates and the comments of their management on April 30. Also, on Thursday, a whole block of macroeconomic indicators will be released, including data on the labor market in Germany, the United States, and the Eurozone. In addition, we will learn about the state of the consumer market and the GDP of the Eurozone.
A day earlier, on Wednesday, the US GDP data will be released, and a day later, on Friday, the US manufacturing ISM and employment indices will be published.
At the time of writing this forecast, the vast majority of analysts (80%), supported by 70% of the oscillators and 90% of the trend indicators on D1, expect further strengthening of the dollar and a fall of the pair. Support levels are 1.0775, 1.0725, the target is 1.0650.
Only 20% of experts support the growth of the pair, with graphical analysis on H4 on their side. The resistance levels are 1.1000, 1.1065, 1.1100 and 1.1150;
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- GBP/USD. As we have already written, Britain is projected to be among the countries most affected by coronavirus. The political and economic risks associated with Brexit have not been reversed either. However, investors hope that the final solution of issues related to withdrawal from the EU will be postponed for a longer period or, at least, in the current situation, the British will be able to bargain from Europe more advantageous terms.
Most experts, as in the case of EUR/USD, expect the pair to fall. However, in this case there are significantly fewer of them – 60%. 85% of trend indicators and only 40% of oscillators on D1 are colored red. 15% of the oscillators vote for the growth of the pair, the rest remain neutral. Graphical analysis on D1 expects that the pair will first fall to the horizon of 1.2200, and then rise to the height of 1.2525.
Support levels are 1.2245, 1.2200, 1.2165, 1.2000. Resistance levels are 1.2485, 1.2525, 1.2650 and 1.2725;

- USD/JPY. No one seems to care about this pair right now. And no matter what the Bank of Japan does at its meeting on Tuesday, April 28, this will not affect the attitude of investors. Although, with a high probability, surprises from the Japanese regulator should not be expected.
Indicators on both timeframes are overwhelmingly red (75-100%), which indicates that the bears will again rush to break through the support of 107.00. If successful, the pair may drop to the 105.80 horizon. The next targets are 105.00 and 104.40, but with the extremely low volatility of the past week, their achievement is unlikely.
Experts appear to be looking at the narrow corridor where the pair were trapped. Therefore, unlike the indicators, their opinions are divided almost equally: 55% support the bears, 45% - the bulls. The nearest resistance is 108.00, then 108.50 and 109.50;

– cryptocurrencies. More and more voices have been heard recently foreshadowing the main cryptocurrency with a very successful year. The reasons, in addition to the May halving of Bitcoin, have been voiced many times. This is a general negative macroeconomic background, massive printing of money by Central banks, rising unemployment and falling oil prices. Thanks to precisely these factors, ShapeShift CEO Eric Voorhees believes that in twelve months the Bitcoin exchange rate could reach $ 50,000 with a 80% probability.
Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of investment company Morgan Creek Digital, agrees with Voorhees, having declared that BTC is on the threshold of a new long-term trend: from current levels to $100,000.
Another forecast is given by the cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave. In July 2019, he gave a correct prediction of a decline in the BTC from $11,600 to $6,000 by the end of the year, saying that the first cryptocurrency was up to a parabolic drop. Now, he updated his long-term forecast using curve models based on the BTC price history. In his opinion, the Bitcoin volatility will decline, but it will still face a few ups and downs. Dave the Wave expects the first cryptocurrency to grow to $130,000 by 2023 and then gradually decline to $40,000. Then, the Bitcoin exchange rate will again gradually grow, and by 2029 it could reach $400,000.
Bloomberg analysts expect a decrease in volatility in their medium-term outlook, and this, in their opinion, is a very important observation: it was the unusually low level of volatility that was observed in October 2015 that became a harbinger of a bull rally, with the Bitcoin price rising to historic highs in December 2017. They believe that such a rally, can happen again now.
65% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to grow in the coming week, although the targets here are much more modest and are far from $100,000, and even more so from $ 400,000. The minimum task for the bulls, in their opinion, is to secure the pair in the zone of $7,750-8.250. And then, pushing off from it, break through resistance at $ 9,000.
The remaining 35% of experts believe that the pair will continue to fluctuate at the level of $6,700-7,400, and in case of breakdown of its lower border, it may drop to support around $6,000.

– stock market. Last week, online services such as Amazon, Netflix, and Apple were in the lead. According to forecasts, in the coming days we will also hear about the “big TECH five”.
Amazon, the giant of e-commerce and cloud computing, is a clear beneficiary of quarantine, as is Netflix. Amazon is expected to grow 22% and 21% over the next two quarters. Apple rose 82% in 2019 compared to 32% of S&P500 in the year, where revenue fell by 2% and EPS (company's earnings per share) remained unchanged.
In the second quarter, EPS for Google and Facebook is expected to grow by 35% yoy and will have positive revenue growth. Microsoft is expected to show stronger growth in the second quarter of this year, which is highly unusual in terms of quarantine and travel ban for people.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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- The head of the CoinCorner exchange, Danny Scott, said that the financial crisis against the background of the coronavirus pandemic is forcing more and more investors to turn to bitcoin. "If the situation with the fiat, stock markets and oil does not stabilize, you can expect the coin for 20 thousand dollars or even more after the halving. Fiat money that even ordinary citizens receive as part of support can be converted to cryptocurrency. People are beginning to fear that the dollar will lose stability and cease to be an asset with minimal volatility," Scott believes.
Confirmation of Scott's words was the news that the number of bitcoin holders with 0.1 coins in their account reached a record level – as of April 24, there were already more than 3 million such addresses.

- The joke of CoinDesk journalist Zack Voell can be considered a success. He designed his account in the style of the popular Twitter service Whale Alert, and with its help he distributed fake news about the transfer to the Coinbase exchange of 65 thousand. BTC (over $ 500 million) from the Trezor wallet, allegedly owned by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Later, when the post spread online and to a number of media outlets, Voell deleted it: according to the journalist, he was very surprised that many media took the tweet seriously at all. Although, why be surprised: the fate of bitcoins, which are supposedly in the possession of the North Korean authorities, in the event of the death of Kim Jong-Un worries many.
As for real transfers, a major player transferred BTC tokens worth $367 million last Friday, paying a ridiculous commission for the transaction, just 63 cents, which would be impossible in any other payment system on the planet.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Mati Greenspan has calculated that after the BTC halving (halving of the rewards to miners) the annual bitcoin inflation will be 1.8% - only half of the global level, which is expected to be 3.56% this year. “In just a few days, the annual Bitcoin inflation will drop from 3.65% to 1.8%. And now it is no longer necessary to accept bitcoin to maintain its price. Satoshi either knew exactly what he was doing, or he was very lucky, 'Greenspan wrote. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account that the low inflation rate of the main cryptocurrency does not mean a massive influx of those wishing to purchase it.

- Advisor to Warren Buffett Preston Pysh is very optimistic about Bitcoin (BTC) after the halving. He believes the price of BTC could reach $300,000. “I believe the next level is between $80,000 and $100,000. Bitcoin will go through this price range and will probably reach the mark of $200,000 or $300,000,” said the expert. His position is based on fundamental principles, which once again include the halving and the subsequent shortage of the coin supply in the market. At the same time, Pysh’s position radically diverges from the position of the famous investor and billionaire Warren Buffet, who is an ardent opponent of cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper agrees with Pysh as well, he has repeatedly said that BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. Once again, he confirmed this forecast at Virtual Blockchain Week, saying that one of the catalysts for the growth of the first cryptocurrency will be its use in trading transactions. Representatives of this sector of the economy cannot but appreciate the advantages of bitcoin and the cheapness of transactions.

- Binance cryptocurrency exchange entered the top 10 largest miners of bitcoin. As for small miners, many industry experts are confident that they will either quit the game or be absorbed by bigger players. After the halving, which will take place on May 12, due to a decrease in the reward for the mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, only the most efficient miners with new equipment and access to cheap electricity will remain in the industry. Such an enlargement can disrupt the ecosystem of cryptocurrencies, which runs counter to promises to increase the decentralization of mining.


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Stan NordFX
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 04 - 08, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Macro indicators paint a completely non-rosy picture of the state of the global economy. However, things in Europe look much worse than in the United States. The European economy has sagged at a record 3.8% in history over the previous quarter and 14.4% over the previous year, while in the United States these figures are just 1.2% and 4.8%, respectively.
Last week, both the ECB and the Fed held meetings. Following the statements made on their results, it can be concluded that both regulators are concerned about the prospects of the crisis deepening, but the Fed can and is taking faster and more effective steps to support its economy than its European counterpart.
In terms of allocations, the ECB's balance sheet has risen by €645 bn since the beginning of March, while the Fed's balance sheet has risen by $2.3 tn. The European Central Bank has lowered the rate for the target long-term lending program LTRO from -0.5% to -1% and announced the launch of the non-target financing program PELTRO at -0.25% but left the key interest rate unchanged at 0%. In addition, investors had expected the ECB to decide on the purchase of bonds of “fallen angels” - securities whose investment rating threatens to fall to “junk” due to the pandemic. But it didn't happen either.
However, the US Federal Reserve also left the interest rate unchanged, which allowed the dollar to stay within the four-week lateral corridor 1.0750-1.1000. After reaching the height of 1.1018, the pair underwent a slight correction and completed the five-day period at 1.0980;

- GBP/USD. In general, the week dynamics of this pair's quotes echoed that of the EUR/USD, however, its correction after the sharp takeoff on Thursday April 30 was significantly stronger.
The pound's weekend sell-off was primarily due to a deteriorating fundamental backdrop in the UK economy. Due to the shutdown of a large number of enterprises, the manufacturing sector PMI fell to a record low of 32.6, which was significantly lower than the critical value of 50.0.
As a result, having started on Monday from the level of 1.2365, the pound finished on Friday in the area of a strong support/resistance zone of 1.2500, losing 135 points to the dollar over the week;

- USD/JPY. With ultra-high volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the inverse correlation of this pair with the S&P500 and Nikkei225 is particularly noticeable in recent weeks.
As expected by the majority of experts (55%), supported by the vast majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (75-100%), the past week began with another bear attack on the support of 107.00, which is a significant level for the yen for many months and even years. It would seem the breakdown took place and the pair even reached the 106.35 horizon. But the bears failed to consolidate their success. U.S. exchanges closed the last trading day of April with a vast decline. Futures for the S&P500 lost about 3.0%, while Japan's Nikkei225 rolled back from an 8-week high. Following the inverse correlation rule, the USD/JPY pair turned north and returned to where it started on Monday - to the zone 107.40-107.50. The bears made another attempt to break the level of 107.00 on Friday May 1, resulting in the pair finishing the trading session slightly below it — at 106.85;

– cryptocurrencies. Halving in the Bitcoin network is getting closer and closer. This event overshadows even what happens in connection with the coronavirus pandemic for crypto-analysts and crypto-traders. The wait is not long, everything should happen on May 12. And, as most experts predicted (65%), the main currency went up in the run-up to the halving, pulling along the entire cryptocurrency market. If the BTC/USD pair was at the level of $7,400 on April 24, it was already close to the height of $9,400 on April 30, showing a gain of 27% over 5 days. The number of bitcoin holders with 0.1 coins in their account reached a record level, exceeding 3 million.
However, apart from the bulls-optimists, of course, there are also bears on the market, pessimists, who believe that the halving is already embedded in the Bitcoin current market price, and therefore there are no reasons for its explosive growth at all. This point of view prevailed by the end of last week, when many traders and miners began to take profits, lowering BTC quotes on April 30 to $8,400.
Then bitcoin rose again and by the evening of Friday May 1 it moved to the $8,700-9,000 zone. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization at the end of the week was $ 247 billion (15% per week), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index doubled from 20 to 40, finally leaving the red zone of fear and reaching neutral values.
As for such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD and Litecoin (LTC/USD), they obediently repeated the dynamics of the reference cryptocurrency without ever making any independent movements.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Despite the economic crisis, falling GDP and rising unemployment, April as a whole was very successful for the main stock indices - investors massively bought back assets that sharply fell in price during the March collapse. As for EUR/USD, the European currency, albeit with difficulty, managed to prevent the onset of the dollar. And although the bears constantly pressed the euro to the lower boundary of the side channel 1.0750-1.1000, the pair ended the month where it was on April 01 — near its upper limit of 1.1000. Now, in order for the European currency to be able to withstand pressure, the ECB needs to seriously intensify its actions. However, EU leaders still cannot agree on the form of grants or loans to implement the upcoming aid program. Such slowness reinforces market expectations regarding a possible drop in European GDP this year by 12%.
Now about the week ahead. At the time of writing this forecast, the vast majority of indicators are colored green. However, about 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 already give signals about the pair being overbought, which indicates that it may rebound to the center of the channel 1.0750-1.1000, which is agreed by 65% of analysts. The targets are 1.0900 and 1.0750. If the uptrend continues, the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.1100 and reach a height of 1.1240.
Among the significant events of the upcoming week that may affect the formation of local trends, you should pay attention to the publication of data on business activity and the labor market in the United States on May 05, 06, and especially on Friday, May 08. The unemployment rate in April is forecast to be 10% lower than in March (14% vs. 4%), and the NFP (the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector) fall from -701 to -20,000. All this will play against the dollar, although, as often happens, the market can take these negative forecasts into account in advance;

- GBP/USD. There are no specific signals from the indicators regarding the future of this pair, although the greens have a slight advantage over the reds. The greens are supported by graphical analysis on D1, according to which the pair will rise to the height of 1.2865 in the next 1-2 weeks, and then another 100 points higher. The nearest targets are 1.2650 and 1.2725. Supports are at 1.2245, 1.2165 and 1.1965 levels.
The experts' forecast for this pair is also neutral: a third of them vote for its growth, a third – for a fall, and a third – for a sideways trend. But when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, most of them (60%) expect the British currency to weaken and the pair to fall.
In addition to the deteriorating state of the UK economy, the pressure on the pound is being put on by uncertainty over Brexit, analysts said. Negotiations on leaving the EU have again reached an impasse, and the main Euro negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that Great Britain was refusing any compromises on very many fundamental issues. Moreover, the British have refused any postponements related to the completion of the process of parting with the European Union, as a result of which the possibility of a tough Brexit has once again loomed on the horizon.
The coming week should pay attention to Thursday 07 May, when the meeting of the Bank of England will take place. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.1%. Therefore, the Bank's monetary policy report is of particular interest to investors. And here something unexpected is possible. Given that the recession of the British economy in the II quarter is likely to exceed 8%, the regulator can go on expanding the program of quantitative easing, the volume of which currently stands at ? 645 billion;

- USD/JPY. At the moment, analysts' forecast for this pair is similar to the forecast for GBP/USD — when moving from neutral weekly to monthly, the number of supporters of falling yen and rising dollar rises to 70%. As for the indicators, on D1 they strongly disagree with the experts: 75% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators indicate the continuation of the downtrend that began on March 25 and the pair's consolidation below the key level of 107.00. Support levels are 106.35 and 105.00, and resistance levels are 108.00, 108.50 and 109.40;
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– cryptocurrencies. First, traditionally medium and long-term forecasts of gurus and cryptosphere enthusiasts. So, the head of the CoinCorner exchange, Danny Scott, said that the financial crisis against the background of the coronavirus pandemic is forcing more and more investors to turn to bitcoin. "If the situation with the fiat, stock markets and oil does not stabilize, you can expect the coin for $20,000 or even more after the halving. Fiat money that even ordinary citizens receive as part of support can be converted to cryptocurrency. People are beginning to fear that the dollar will lose stability and cease to be an asset with minimal volatility".
Warren Buffett's adviser Preston Pish is also optimistic about bitcoin, who believes that the price of BTC can reach $200-300 thousand. His position is based on fundamental principles, which once again include the halving and the subsequent shortage of the coin supply in the market. At the same time, Pish’s position radically diverges from the position of the famous investor and billionaire Warren Buffet, who is an ardent opponent of cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper agrees with Pish as well, he has repeatedly said that the BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2022 or early 2023. He has once again confirmed this forecast at Virtual Blockchain Week, saying that one of the catalysts for the growth of the first cryptocurrency will be its use in trading transactions. In his opinion, representatives of this sector of the economy can not but appreciate the advantages of bitcoin and the cheapness of transactions. It is hard to argue with the latter, especially after it became known that the commission for the transfer of BTC on April 22 worth $367 million amounted to only 63 cents.
In general, while maintaining optimism, some experts fear that after the halving, due to a decrease in the reward for a mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, only the most efficient miners with new equipment and access to cheap electricity can remain in the industry. Such consolidation may disrupt the cryptocurrency ecosystem, which will run counter to promises to increase the decentralization of mining. However, a possible increase in the cost of bitcoin and a drop in energy prices caused by the current crisis gives hope that small crypto farms can stay afloat, while maintaining profitability.
And now about forecasts for the coming week, which may surprise, as more than half of analysts (55%) predict not growth, but the fall of the BTC/USD pair to the zone of 7,700-8,000. Another 20% predict its movement along the $9,000 horizon, and only 25% expect that bitcoin quotes will break through the resistance at the $10,000 level.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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- On July 22, the fate of 1.1 million bitcoins belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto, whom Australian businessman Craig Wright claims to be, should be decided in the district court of the Florida Southern District (USA). According to the existing version, he worked on the creation of bitcoin together with the late David Kleiman, whose family now claims half of the 1.1 million BTC (over $ 8 billion at the current exchange rate), which, in their opinion, was grabbed by Craig Wright. However, no evidence has been provided that he really owns these coins. Recall that previously the self-proclaimed creator of bitcoin filed suits for the protection of honor and dignity against a number of well-known representatives of the crypto community who doubted that he was Satoshi, and even openly called Wright a fraud. It later became known that the entrepreneur withdrew the lawsuits against Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Blockstream CEO Adam Back. Moreover, in the case of Back, Wright fully paid his legal costs.

- The author of the bestselling book “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” entrepreneur and investor Robert Kiyosaki has once again criticized fiat currencies and praised gold, silver, and bitcoin. “Why do people become poor? Kiyosaki asked, and he himself answered. - One of the reasons is the definition of money. Real money is a measure of value, a means of exchange, a means of preserving value. Fake dollars do not save value. Own gold, silver and bitcoin, which preserve value, serve as a measure of value and are able to be exchanged. Keepers of fake dollars are the losers."
Kiyosaki ganged up on the American currency because of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy, which reduces the purchasing power of money. He also believes that since 1971, the dollar has become a debt obligation that makes the rich even richer and the poor even poorer.

- Microsoft published a patent application WO2020060606 on March 26, which describes mining of cryptocurrencies using the human body. The document says that a sensor can be connected to the user's body, which would read data on its activity and transmit them to the cryptocurrency system. The latter, in turn, verifies the information received and, if it corresponds to pre-established conditions, it rewards the user with digital currency. In response to this, famous Russian film director Nikita Mikhalkov said in his television program that Bill Gates wants to implant chips in billions of people with the help of this technology, taking them under full control, and do it under the pretext of vaccination against coronavirus. At the same time, the director noted that there is a "diabolical" number 666 in the application number.

- The developer of infrastructure services for the Blockstream ecosystem of bitcoin announced the launch of an updated version of the software to gain access to the first cryptocurrency network via satellite. As part of this space project, Blockstream seeks to solve the problem of using bitcoin in the absence of an Internet connection. The start-up uses six orbital stations to exchange data with a cryptocurrency network in almost all populated regions of the Earth. With the latest update, a satellite has been added to the system to further cover the Asia-Pacific region.

- Less than a week is left until the third bitcoin halving. If in 2009 miners could receive 50 BTC for each block in the distributed cryptocurrency registry, this figure will be only 6.25 BTC in the near future. In anticipation of this event, the amount of computing power used to extract cryptocurrency has reached a record high of 150 exahash per second (EH/s). And since the beginning of 2020, the hash rate of the bitcoin network has grown by about 50%. Analysts associate the surge in activity of miners not only with the halving itself, but also with the Chinese mining enterprises, which again begin to mine BTC after restrictions due to coronavirus have been lifted.
Bitcoin-related and internet user activity has grown. According to Google Trends, the request "to buy bitcoin” has reached its highest value since April 2018.

- The number of “whales” with a balance of bitcoin wallets of more than 10,000 BTC is growing steadily and has reached 111 at the moment. This is the highest since August 2, 2019 and is 11% higher than in early March. Large investors are frightened by the difficult economic situation in the world, including the unprecedented and uncontrolled emission of new money by world powers. As for bitcoin, its volume is limited to 21 million coins, and the monetary policy is programmed in advance and provides for a 50% reduction in the rate of issue every four years. These factors are the reason why many investors are increasingly beginning to regard bitcoin as a safe haven asset and protect against inflation, like gold.

- “Bitcoin is the best investment for me. I have not advised anyone to buy in the last two years, but now I tell everyone - buy!” - said a well-known trader and analyst Tone Vays. He added that Bitcoin will still have problems in 2020. “I do not think that we will rise in price very seriously. Most likely we are stuck between $6,000 and $10,000. And so it will be until the end of the year,” said Vays.



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Stan NordFX
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Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 11 – 15, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Constitutional Court of Germany dealt a blow to the ECB's efforts to save the European economy last week. It decided that the European regulator had exceeded its authority regarding the quantitative easing (QE) program, and therefore its decisions were not binding on Germany. This news immediately weakened the EUR/USD position. If you add to this the lack of compromise among EU governments over fiscal stimulus, the risks of Eurozone fragmentation are growing every day.
However, things are not better on the American continent. Publications of recent data have shown that the situation in the US labor market is even worse than expected. 33.5 million Americans have applied for primary unemployment benefits since late March, non-farm employment in April alone fell by 22.5 million jobs, and unemployment reached 14.7% (4.4% in March). Under such circumstances, some experts do not rule out cutting the Fed's interest rate to negative values.
However, it seems that the market is tired and reluctant to respond to individual figures and events, paying attention only to the resumption of business activity and the removal of restrictive quarantine measures in different countries. Of course, the EUR/USD quotes fluctuate up and down, but the volatility that we observed in late February and March is not even present. The pair has been moving in the 1.0750-1.1000 channel for the fifth week in a row since early April, and, as most (65%) experts predicted, even the expectations of a new round of the US-Chinese trade war could not push it beyond these borders;

- GBP/USD. The forecasts of both experts and indicators for this pair had a neutral gray hue last week. A third of them voted for the growth of the pair, a third - for the fall, and a third - for the side trend. The Bank of England meeting on May 7 did not add clarity, at which it was decided to keep the main parameters of the monetary policy unchanged - the interest rate at 0.1% and the quantitative easing program at ? 645 billion. Calls by two members of the Bank’s management to increase the program by ?100 billion never found support from their other seven colleagues.
In such an implicit situation, the pound has been moving in the channel 1.2200-1.2645 for the sixth week, and the range of fluctuations narrowed to the range 1.2265-1.2500 last week, within which, at the level of 1.2405, the pair ended the trading session;

- USD/JPY. 75% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on D1 predicted last week the continuation of the downward trend that began on March 25 and the consolidation of the pair below the key level of 107.00. In general, the events developed in this scenario. Recall that on the first day of May, the pair made another attempt to break the support of 107.00, ending the trading session slightly below it — at 106.85. Then the downtrend continued, and on Wednesday May 6, the pair groped for the local bottom at 106.00. This was followed by a reversal, and the pair returned to the values of the beginning of the week, ending the five-day period at the level of 106.70;

– cryptocurrencies. The halving in the Bitcoin network is getting closer and closer. When this forecast is written, it is less than four days away. And when you read it, the halving may already have taken place.
The questions that traders and investors ask us indicate that not all of them understand the meaning of this event. Therefore, it requires clarification.
So, Bitcoin is set up to mine just 21 million coins. Thus, unlike Central banks, which can print an infinite amount of their own currency, the volume of BTC is strictly limited, which determines its value, making this cryptocurrency look like gold.
Halving is the process of reducing the reward for mining a block by half. There have already been two such decreases in the life of Bitcoin – in 2012 and 2016. And if at the first stage miners could get 50 BTC for each block in the distributed registry of crypto coins, this figure will be only 6.25 BTC soon. This should prevent the inflation of the main cryptocurrency and make sure that all 21 million bitcoins are completely mined only by 2140
It is important that halving does not occur on a specific date, but at the moment when the next 210,000 blocks are mined. The upcoming halving will occur at block 630,000 and, according to calculations, this should happen on May 12.
In the run-up to this event, the main cryptocurrency showed a weekly growth of almost 14%, rising at one point even above the landmark mark of $10,000. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has reached $270 billion, of which almost 70% is accounted for by BTC. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose in two weeks from 20 to 55, which according to the creators of the index corresponds to the prevailing greed in the market when opening short position is dangerous.
Unlike the benchmark cryptocurrency, the main altcoins either showed zero gain or are in the red zone. Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD and Litecoin (LTC/USD) on Friday evening, May 8, are almost where they were seven days ago, which means that investors are now so passionate about Bitcoin that they just don't care about the rest of the coins.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The US administration is actively sharpening its teeth, looking towards the Middle Kingdom. Donald Trump gave the command to monitor Beijing's commitments to increase American exports. At the same time, hints are constantly being heard from the US president that China is the primary source of all the problems associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This allows us to expect that the new anti-Chinese customs rates are not far off.
Europe, on the other measure, is trying to make sense of the decision of the German Constitutional Court, which can cause the problems of the European economy to grow like a snowball. Leading banks such as Societe Generale and Citi are talking about a possible split in the Eurozone if the ECB ignores the decision of the German Constitutional Court and thus challenges the German government. Forecasts show that even in the absence of extraordinary events, the Eurozone GDP decline in 2020 could reach 7.7%.
All this fuels the growth of anti-risk sentiment, as a result of which investors again begin to look at the dollar as a safe haven currency. If the ECB is bound hand and foot in its actions to stimulate the European economy, the EUR/USD pair, according to BofA Merill Lynch forecasts, could fall to 1.0200 by the end of the year.
For the next week, the experts' votes are distributed as follows: 35% believe that the pair will still hold within 1.0750-1.1000, 50% expect the dollar to strengthen and break through the lower border of this corridor, and the remaining 15% turn to the North.
The indicators have a slightly different picture. On H4, 60% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators are colored green, and on D1, red still prevails, in which 60% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are colored.
Support levels are 1.0750 and 1.0650, resistance levels are 1.1000, 1.1065, 1.1100 and 1.1150;
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- GBP/USD. The pound is still under pressure. The Brexit-related problems have been multiplied by the coronavirus pandemic. According to the Bank of England, UK GDP in the second quarter of 2020 "will be almost 30% lower" than at the end of 2019. Despite this, the regulator did not increase the volume of the aid program for the British economy, although, at the current rate of bond buying, it will exhaust current limits by the end of July. What happens next? It's not clear yet.
40% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1 and indicators on both time frames (H4 and D1) expect the pair to continue the sideways trend in channel 1.2265-1.2500. Another 40% of experts are waiting for the breakout of the lower border of the channel and the pair's decline to the zone of 1.1000-1.2165, and only 20% believe that it will go up and reach the height of 1.2640. The next goal of the bulls is 1.2725, after taking which the pair will try to rise to the level of 1.2865-1.3025;

- USD/JPY. The v-shaped movement of the pair last week divided experts in half — 50%, supported by indicators on D1, favored bears, and the other 50%, supported by indicators on H4, preferred bulls. At the same time, the latter believe that the reversal of May 06 is nothing but the beginning of a new mid-term uptrend. And if the level of tension between the US and China does not rise, the pair will be able to rise to 109.00 and then to 112.00.
Nearest support levels are 106.20, 106.00 and 105.00. Resistance levels — 107.00, 107.45 and 108.00;

– cryptocurrencies. It is ungrateful to make any predictions in anticipation of such an important event as halving. We have repeatedly talked about the predictions of numerous crypto gurus waiting for Bitcoin to rise to $50,000, to $100,000, and up to $250,000. But, of course, there are those who hold the opposite view. So, for example, financial and cryptocurrency analyst Joseph Young expects a slight pullback after halving, and then a series of medium-term and long-term growth periods, followed by falling quotes or flat.
Another well-known analyst and trader, Ton Vays, believes that the BTC/USD pair is unlikely to rise seriously in price. “We're likely to be stuck between $6,000 and $10,000. And so it will be until the end of the year, " he said.
As for forecasts until the end of May, their spread is very high - from the lows of March 2020 around $4,000 to the highs of June 2019 at the level of $14,000. So far, 65% of experts have sided with the bulls, and 35% have sided with the bears. We will find out who of them is right in the near future. It won't be long now.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews

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- The halving took place in the Bitcoin network. This event has divided the reward for mining one block to 6.25 coins. Since the beginning of the year, this event has caused a lot of controversy and speculation about what awaits the main cryptocurrency after it. Despite a lot of positive forecasts, the coin survived the halving at the level below 9 thousand dollars. So far, no significant fluctuations in quotes, nor a loss of hashrate have been noted. The market is frozen in anticipation and may be preparing to jump. But which way?

- The head of the Galaxy Digital crypto-trading bank, billionaire Mike Novogratz believes that the main coin will be traded at $20 thousand by the end of the year. And in 2021, if the trend of cryptocurrency acceptance by regulators continues, the asset has every chance to update its absolute maximum. "Bitcoin has been able to survive the halving that was expected for four years, and now it is ready to take new frontiers. We will see a new 2020 high before autumn. By December, we should expect an update of the historical high. Even though the forecast of 10 thousand dollars before halving did not come true, I do not take back my words, since the coin can go to aggressive growth at any time," Novogratz said.

- In addition to Mike Novogratz, there are still a lot of optimists in the expert community who predict a surge in Bitcoin in the medium term. So, according to Leonard Neo, the head of research at Stack, the BTC climb will begin about 6-9 months after the halving. "Miners will adapt to the new working conditions over the next few weeks," CNBC quoted the expert as saying. – We expect that this [market recovery] may take 6-9 months before equilibrium occurs, after which Bitcoin will move to growth." “Further shocks in the global economy may accelerate its upward trajectory,” Leonard Neo emphasized.

- Bitcoin miners added a symbolic message to the last block before halving. It draws a parallel between the current economic situation and the global financial crisis of 2008. "With $2.3T Injection, Fed's Plan Far Exceeds 2008 Rescue," the miners quoted the headline of the New York Times on April 9, 2020. Adding this message to the block, the miners also paid tribute to Satoshi Nakamoto. On January 3, 2009, the creator of Bitcoin left a similar message in the zero block, using the headline of the British newspaper The Times: "Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks."

- The creator of Hashcash algorithm and CEO of Blockstream Adam Back decided to interrupt a new wave of speculation that he was hiding under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, stating that any coincidence and facts random. The crypto community has repeatedly suggested that it is Beck who can be the creator of bitcoin. His comments on the course of the trial regarding the fate of 1.1 million bitcoins Satoshi Nakamoto, for which Australian businessman Craig Wright poses, added fuel to the fire. We talked about this process in more detail in the previous issue of Crypto News on 06.05.2020.

- Since the second half of 2016, the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC has increased by about 100%. This is stated in a report by analytics company Glassnode. The largest increase was shown by wallets with a balance of less than 0.01 BTC (less than $100). Over the past four years, the number of such addresses has jumped 235% and exceeded 10 million. The number of addresses containing from 0.01 to 0.1 Bitcoin has increased by more than 200% since July 2016. The number of wallets with a balance of more than 0.1 but less than 1.0 coins has increased by 142%. Researchers have also recorded an increase in the number of large holders of cryptocurrency or the so-called “whales”. In four years, the number of addresses containing more than 1000 bitcoins has grown by more than 13%.

- During the pandemic, the use of cryptocurrency ATMs in the United States grew by 40%. Today, Coinstar serves 3,500 crypto ATMs, and now plans to double their number within a year. At the same time, the company claims that this growth was provided by those who used cryptocurrency ATMs for the first time.

- Paul Tudor Jones, founder of the Tudor Investment hedge fund, whose fortune is estimated at $5.1 billion, said on CNBC that bitcoin is an excellent speculation. As for his own approach to cryptocurrency, Jones called it conservative. “I have just over 1% of assets in BTC, maybe the correct figure is closer to 2%,” he elaborated. And he added: “When I think about Bitcoin, I view it as one tiny part of a portfolio. But it may be the best, most profitable of all." Last week, this legendary trader made a loud statement, calling cryptocurrency “the fastest horse” and inviting customers to include bitcoin futures in their portfolio.

- A report from ESTsecurity experts says that North Korean hackers have begun to attack crypto traders with renewed vigor. The infamous Lazarus organization became active again. The authors of the report emphasize that in addition to traders, cybercriminals attack crypto companies, mainly from the Asian region. Lazarus sends emails to potential victims on behalf of organizations purportedly offering asset exchange and storage services. These emails contain malicious files that are stored under the guise of blockchain-based software development agreements. Using the virus, hackers steal victim data and steal funds in cryptocurrency.

- To date, the leading mass media have already announced the "death" of bitcoin 380 times, but the first cryptocurrency is not only still alive, but also survived the very website that first predicted its decline. The CEO of the British cryptocurrency exchange Danny Scott drew attention to this. We are talking about the website Underground Economist, which predicted bitcoin's death on December 8, 2010, when it cost $0.23. "The only thing that has kept bitcoin alive for so long is its novelty. It will either remain in this status of novelty, or it will die faster than you can blink," the publication wrote at the time.


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Stan NordFX
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 18 – 22, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. There is this expression — “retrain on the fly.” That's exactly what President Trump did on May 14. Prior to that, he talked a lot and often about the advantages of a weak dollar, which would increase the competitiveness of American products in foreign markets and pushed the Fed towards a softer monetary policy. And now, he suddenly announced in an interview with Fox TV: "Right now it's good to have a strong dollar. Having a strong dollar right now is great!” The head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, also supported his President, saying that the regulator did not and does not consider the possibility of switching to negative interest rates.
The main reason for this 180-degree reversal is that the crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic has sharply increased interest in the dollar as a safe haven currency and trying to counter it is like swimming against the tide. In addition, the US authorities have turned on the printing press at full capacity, and it is very important for them now to maintain interest in their own currency. They are afraid that someone may simultaneously throw a large number of dollars into the secondary market, and in order to avoid this, they carefully fuel the confidence of investors that this currency will grow.
Despite this, EUR/USD quotes do not change much, as the euro is not the Turkish lira or Brazilian real, but a currency comparable to the dollar in scale and reliability. And if the pair moved in the side channel 1.0750-1.1000 earlier, the range of its oscillations now has decreased to 1.0770-1.0890. The pair is gradually consolidating near the horizon 1.0800, forming a triangle on a two-month chart and putting the final chord of the week at 1.0820;

- GBP/USD. Pound forecasts still coincide with realities. The British currency is under pressure, Brexit-related problems have been repeatedly increased by the coronavirus pandemic, and GDP is falling. The pound is falling too. The GBP/USD pair lost about 285 points during the week, striving to break the lower limit of the seven-week corridor 1.2165-1.2650, and ending the trading session at 1.2120;

- USD/JPY. The USD/JPY pair is consolidating around 107.00 confirming the thesis that the yen is the same safe haven for investors as the euro or the dollar. Moreover, the Japanese currency has a clear advantage over the euro¬: if the European currency was losing its positions to the dollar in the last one and a half to two months, the yen, on the contrary, was winning them back. And the EUR/JPY cross-pair has fallen by more than 500 points since the end of March (from 121.00 to 116.00). As for the last week, the Japanese currency was kept in a rather narrow range of 106.50-107.75 yen per dollar for the entire five-day period, and completed it at 107.20;

– cryptocurrencies. For starters, a bit of stats. According to Glassnode, the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC has increased by about 100% since the second half of 2016. Wallets with a balance of less than 0.01 BTC (less than $100) showed the biggest increase. The number of such addresses has jumped 235% over the past four years and exceeded 10 million. And that's kind of good news. But if we make simple calculations, we will get that thanks to such a numerous but "small fish", the capitalization of the crypto market has grown by only $0.5-1.0 billion. A drop in the ocean! But the number of large holders of cryptocurrency, real "whales" who own more than 1,000 BTC coins, has grown by only 13% in four years, which suggests a lack of interest from large institutional investors.
Just one example. The other day, the founder of the Tudor Investment hedge fund, Paul Tudor Jones, whose fortune is estimated at $5.1 billion, said on CNBC that bitcoin is, of course, a great speculation, but he considers it only as one tiny, just 1-2%, part of his portfolio.
Crypto investors and major global regulators do not please. So, the US court sided with the SEC, preventing the owner of Telegram messenger Pavel Durov from launching the TON cryptocurrency. A similar fate befell the Libra coin initiated by Facebook, even despite the fact that the project was supported by another 26 such powerful companies as eBay, Uber, Booking.com, Vodafone and others. All this suggests that the US authorities do not need competitors to the dollar at all, and they will do everything they can to prevent such from appearing.
The May 11 halving in the Bitcoin network did not add optimism to the market either. Since the beginning of the year, this event has caused a lot of controversy and speculation about what awaits the main cryptocurrency after it. And despite a lot of positive predictions, the coin experienced halving at below $9,000. The main cryptocurrency could not gain a foothold last week above the sign level of $10,000, having stayed at a height of $10,003 for only a couple of minutes.
The halving of the miners' reward has already led, according to CoinMetrics, to a 30% drop in bitcoin hashrate. Crypto exchanges started actively withdrawing funds, quotes fell to $8,100, and the total market capitalization of the crypto market by the middle of the week sank from $270 billion to $234 billion (-13.3%). The situation, however, somewhat stabilized by the end of the week, the capitalization approached $260 billion, and the BTC/USD pair aimed at storming the height of $10,000 once again. The value of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell by 11 points over the week, from 55 to 44.
The charts of the main altcoins, at first glance, repeat the dynamics of BTC/USD, but their recovery is much slower. Unlike bitcoin, etherium (ETH/USD), riple (XRP/USD) and litecoin (LTC/USD) were able to recoup only half of the losses after the May 10 failure.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Weakening risk sentiment and selling off exchange-traded funds strengthens the dollar. It is now supported by US President Trump, with his threats to sever any relations with China at all, and the Federal Reserve, which has refused to lower its key rate to negative values. Even the judge of the Constitutional Court of Germany, Peter Huber, helped the American currency, saying that the ECB was not “the master of the universe” to comply with all its decisions.
All this has prompted 65% of analysts supported by 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 to side with the bears and vote for the decline of the EUR/USD pair. The nearest targets are 1.0750 and 1.0650.
10% of experts and 30% of oscillators, painted in neutral gray, have voted that the pair will continue to consolidate at the 1.0800 horizon. And finally, the remaining 25% of analysts predict the pair will return to the upper boundary of the side corridor 1.0750-1.1000. On D1, they were supported by 10% of oscillators that signal the pair's oversold;

- GBP/USD. According to most experts, the pound is not at all the currency in which it is worth investing even with a fall in risk sentiment. It has long ceased to be a refuge from financial storms. The European Union is currently busy with the process of forming its seven-year budget and its financing problems, the ECB is engaged in a fight with the German Constitutional court, and Brussels is not at all up to the settlement of Brexit-related problems. And the UK, in addition to a divorce from the EU, also has a continuously falling GDP, rising unemployment and a negative balance in foreign trade.
As a result, 65% of experts expect a further weakening of the British currency and its decline to the horizon of 1.2000. In the event of a breakout of this important level, the pair will rush to the lows of March: 1.1640 and 1.1450. Bearish sentiment is also supported by indicators on H4 and D1, demonstrating a rare unity: 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are colored red.
The opposite point of view is shared by 35% of analysts, 15% of oscillators indicating the pair is oversold, and graphical analysis on both timeframes. In their opinion, the breakdown of the lower boundary of the channel 1.2165-1.2650 is false, and the pair is expected to first return to the central zone of this channel 1.2245-1.2465, and then, possibly, rise to its upper boundary;
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- USD/JPY. The yen froze, waiting for the next round of trade and now political war between the US and China to develop. We should not forget that its quotes are also strongly influenced by the level of risk sentiment in the market. There is also a correlation with 10-year US Treasury bonds, and the dependence of the Japanese economy on oil prices. Such an abundance of factors does not yet make it possible to identify the most likely direction of the breakthrough of the consolidation zone in the region of 107.00. At the moment, supporters of the pair's growth have a slight advantage (40%), supported by 65% of the oscillators on H4. 20% of analysts turn their eyes to the South and another 40% – to the East.
The nearest support levels are 106.75, 106.00 and 105.00. The resistance levels are 107.45, 108.00, 108.50 and 109.35;

– cryptocurrencies. So, the bitcoin halving has reduced the reward for mining one block to 6.25 coins. Some miners are already leaving the business or selling assets to cover losses. Even before the halving, a lot of equipment for mining BTC gave minimal profit, and now it has become completely unprofitable. It looks like things are heading towards further monopolisation of mining market, which contradicts the very idea of cryptocurrency decentralization. However, many experts hope that the crisis caused by COVID-19 and the printing of fiat by Central banks will nevertheless push the main cryptocurrency up.
“Bitcoin was able to survive the halving that has been expected for four years, and now it is ready to take new frontiers,” said billionaire Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank. According to him, the main coin will reach a level of $20,000 by December, and then the asset has every chance of updating its absolute maximum.
In addition to Novogratz, there are still enough optimists in the expert community who predict a surge in bitcoin in the medium term. So, according to Leonard Neo, the head of research at Stack, the BTC climb will begin about 6-9 months after the halving. At first, miners will adapt to new working conditions, after which bitcoin will turn to growth. “Further upheavals in the global economy may accelerate its upward trajectory,” CNBC quoted the expert as saying.
In the near future, task No. 1 for BTC/USD is to overcome the height of $10,000. Moreover, Bitcoin should not only take this line, but also confidently gain a foothold above it. Only in this case can we expect further rapid growth of quotes of this pair. 60% of analysts agree that it will be able to rise to the level of $10,500-11,000 in May-June. The remaining 40% expect to see the pair significantly lower: in the $8,000-9,000 zone. And here it should be noted that a number of experts draw apocalyptic paintings altogether, predicting the failure of the main cryptocurrency to levels around $ 6,500.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Stan NordFX
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CryptoNews

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- Instead of searching for a COVID-19 vaccine, European supercomputers were mining cryptocurrency. After stealing access data from service personnel, hackers installed malware for mining on several heavy-duty computers that were used to develop a coronavirus vaccine. The massive attack affected supercomputers in the UK, Germany, Switzerland and possibly Spain. The first case of infection was discovered on May 11 at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland. Later similar problems were identified at the German University of Ludwig-Maximilian, the Swiss Center for Scientific Computing and the Leibniz Computer Center in Bavaria. Computers had to be temporarily disabled to remove malicious software that was mining Monero coins.

- The yield of bitcoin this year is far ahead of gold. The precious metal has risen in value by 12% since January. The value of bitcoin has increased by more than 35% over the same period. According to experts from TradingView (a social network for traders), the volatility of the main coin was significantly higher, which affected the risks of buying cryptocurrency. But even so, the cryptocurrency market now looks significantly more stable than the stock market. Even the shares of the world's largest banks have lost significantly in price. For example, JPMorgan quotes fell by 37.2%, as a result of which BTC outperformed the bank in terms of market value growth by 300%. Wells Fargo shows the worst result among the study participants: shares of this bank collapsed by 55.3%.
"Even in the economic crisis, bitcoin has the status of one of the best assets to invest in. When the world begins to gradually come out of the current situation, the cryptocurrency market will retain superiority in certain industries. Other assets will be forced to earn credibility again," says Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano.

- Analysts at the TIE (a company offering digital solutions) published a report that shows that Twitter users' interest in bitcoin has jumped to a historical high. The upward momentum has been recorded throughout this year, but a sharp spike has come in the run-up to May's halving. Over the past 30 days, the number of posts dedicated to the main cryptocurrency has skyrocketed to its highest point in 2.5 years. And the number of positive tweets significantly exceeds the number of negative mentions.

- China continues to lead in the ranking of countries in terms of computing power in the Bitcoin network. At the moment, just three mining pools, F2Pool, AntPool and BTC.com, account for 52.9% of Bitcoin hashrate (21.8%, 16% and 15.1%, respectively). Moreover, AntPool and BTC.com pools are part of the structure of the Chinese company Bitmain. So, it turns out that this giant and F2Pool together control the lion's share of the global Bitcoin mining. In this regard, a number of industry representatives have already sounded alarm about the reality of the threat of centralization of this “decentralized” cryptocurrency.

- According to the Anti-Terrorism Project, the ISIS terrorist organization banned in many countries stores more than $ 300 million in cryptocurrencies. "I calculated that from 2017 to 2020, the terrorists received about $300 million, which we were not able to detect, and cryptocurrencies can be used to hide them. This is really an ideal mechanism for hiding money. With proper organization, governments will not be able to locate or confiscate them,” wrote the director of the Anti-Terrorism Project, Hans-Jakob Schindler. The statement also says that in 2019, ISIS used cryptocurrencies to organize a terrorist attack in Sri Lanka. 250 people became victims of the attack then.

- The leading cryptocurrency is still unable to break through the $10,000 mark; however, this may change within 72 hours. This was stated by a well-known trader Tone Vays in a live broadcast on the ForkLog channel. "I believe that Bitcoin can go up very seriously. How high? Somewhere up to $12,000,” Vays said. And he added: "If we get stuck now and start falling to $9,000, I will expect us to fall below $8,000. If we break $10,000, everything will be fine.”

- Well-known cryptocurrency investor Tour Demister believes that Bitcoin can make another parabolic rally. In his opinion, the leading cryptocurrency is about to complete the phase of re-accumulation, followed by a powerful breakthrough in its exchange rate. “Bitcoin is fast approaching its second Golden Cross of 2020 - the intersection of the 50-day above the 200-day moving average (SMA). Last year, the Golden Cross led to an increase of 160%. After a false start in February, will BTC get lucky a second time?” - asked Demister.

- Bitcoin will be able to break above $20,000 within the next 18 months, according to eToro analyst Simon Peters. Moreover, the expert does not exclude the option in which BTC will test the value of $50,000, Bloomberg reports. The eToro analyst said that if the United States and many other states really move to negative rates, investment in Bitcoin will begin to grow rapidly. After that, taking the mark at least of $20,000 will already be inevitable.

- The entrepreneur and author of the bestselling book “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” Robert Kiyosaki believes that the Fed’s incompetence is killing the US economy, so the price of bitcoin will rise to $75,000 in three years. He said he had increased his investment in gold, silver, and bitcoin due to the intention of the US authorities to pour trillions of dollars into saving pension plans. We are talking about a bill on a new stimulus package for the economy, passed so far only by the U.S. House of Representatives. Forbes journalists noted that the section on assistance to pension plans assumes unlimited allocation of funds. “The economy is dying. The Fed is incompetent. Next is the infusion of trillions into pensions. Hope disappears,” Kiyosaki wrote.

- Cryptocurrency payment operator Cryptobuyer announced that Venezuelan residents will soon be able to pay with cryptocurrencies in 20,000 retail outlets in the country. As early as June, Central Madeirense supermarket chain, Farmatodo pharmacies, Cinemas Unidos and many other stores will start accepting BTC, ETH, DASH, LTC, BNB, USDT, DAI and Cryptobuyer own token - XPT.

- Hackers created a fake account of Google founder Sergey Brin on YouTube and promised to distribute 5000 BTC on his behalf. At a certain point, more than 100,000 people watched the live broadcast – an old speech by Brin was shown in a small window, and a fraudulent scheme was promoted against his background. The organizers traditionally offered to transfer from 0.1 to 25 BTC to their account in order to get twice as much. Note that such schemes were popular on Twitter in 2017-2018. The video and the channel are not available at the moment.

- “The creator of the Harry Potter novel series, Joan Rowling, who previously tried to figure out Bitcoin, said she was just “trolling Bitcoin in the hope of increasing her significant Ethereum assets.” True, this turned out to be a joke as well. This is how the writer responded to the speculation of some cryptocurrency media about her possible joining the bitcoin community.


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Stan NordFX
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 25 – 29, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Tensions between the U.S. and China continue, which can not but affect the markets. President Trump said he will respond “very strongly” to Beijing’s legislative initiatives. This applies, in particular, to the desire of the PRC to strengthen control over Hong Kong, which has previously served as the cause of unrest in this country. If China continues to take this path, Donald Trump said on Thursday May 21, he “will deal with this issue very decisively.” In parallel, the US administration continues to point to the Celestial Empire, as the source of the global coronavirus pandemic, and requires appropriate compensation from it.
In addition, the United States announced the withdrawal from the “open skies” treaty, which could be a harbinger of a new arms race and reinforces the expectation of another round of geopolitical tensions.
As for the current economic indicators of the USA and the Eurozone, in spite of certain improvements, it is still very, very early to talk about their confident recovery. So, despite the fact that, according to Markit, the composite index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone in May rose from 13.6 to 30.5, consumer demand continues to fall, and the number of jobs continues to decline at a tremendous speed.
In the US, business activity also went up, but there are also huge problems with unemployment. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell slightly during the month, from 2,687K to 2,438K, and the number of Americans receiving this benefit exceeded 25 million.
This situation of economic uncertainty both in the USA and in Europe does not allow investors to give preference to any of these currencies and has been holding the EUR/USD pair in the side corridor 1.0750-1.1000 for the second month running. So last week, the pair first rose to the upper border of this channel, and then sank into its central zone, completing the five-day period at around 1.0900;

- GBP/USD. A whole block of UK macroeconomic indicators was published last week, which turned out to be quite contradictory. It seems that the situation on the labor market has improved: the unemployment rate was 3.9% instead of the forecast value of 4.4%, and business activity in the service sector did not fail either — the Markit index showed an increase from 13.6 to 30.5, the preliminary index of supply managers (PMI) rose from 32.6 in April to 40.6. On the other hand, the consumer price index (CPI) fell from 1.5% to 0.8%, and this despite the fact that the target level of the Bank of England is 2%.
The inflation rate in April proved to be the slowest since August 2009, and such a decline in inflation could prompt the Bank of England to lower interest rates further. So, The Bank's Governor, Andrew Bailey, said on Thursday that it would be foolish to rule out the possibility of introducing negative interest rates. Only a week ago, he had denied the possibility.
In general, as was already said, the situation last week was quite contradictory, and perhaps that’s why the pound slowed down, and the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair as a whole repeated the dynamics of EUR/USD: having found the local bottom at 1.2070, the pair turned around and went up to the height of 1.2295. This was followed by another reversal and decline, including by Andrew Bailey's statement, to 1.2170;

- USD/JPY. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda issued a statement on Friday May 22 that the government and the country's Central Bank would work together on putting the economy back on the path of growth. The high officials have noted that the number of bankruptcies in Japan has grown rapidly over the past month. In this regard, Kuroda announced a program worth 30 trillion yen, under which companies affected by the coronavirus pandemic will be able to obtain loans without collateral and at a zero interest rate. Such steps by the regulator to ease monetary policy push the pair up, although this movement can not be called strong. Over 2.5 weeks, its quotes increased from 106.00 to 107.60, as a result of which, having drawn the letter V, the pair returned to where it was already in early and in mid April, to the zone 107.30-108.00;

– cryptocurrencies. Let's start with secrets and mysteries. For the first time in a year, unknown people transferred more than 28 BTC ($258 thousand) to an anonymous address from the wallet where the bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex exchange were stored. But this is not a sensation, but a topic for police investigation. The sensation is that Bitcoins, possibly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto himself, also began to move! The crypto community has always been interested in coins mined at the origin of the network when they were mined by only a few people, including the creator of bitcoin. And now 50 BTC, which had been lying dead weight since 2009, are in motion.
According to some analysts, these and other processes are directly related to the consequences of halving. Against the background of the falling hashrate in the last recalculation, the complexity of bitcoin mining also decreased, but this has not helped to normalize the situation so far. Despite the best efforts of the bulls, the BTC/USD pair never managed to break the key level of $10,000. But, as you know, what does not grow, falls. After not waiting for the long-awaited jerk up after the halving, many traders began to eliminate their long positions and take profits, as a result of which the quotes of the main cryptocurrency fell by about 10%, to the level of $9,000.
As a result of the sell-off, the total capitalization of the crypto market fell from a May 18 high of $273 billion to $246 billion on May 21, but the value of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is about the same level as a week ago, 42 vs. 44.
It should be noted that, despite the small drawdown of BTC/USD, the profitability of bitcoin this year was far ahead of gold. The precious metal has risen in value by 12% since January, while bitcoin has risen by about 30%. The advantage of the main cryptocurrency over the stock market looks much more impressive. For example, JPMorgan quotes fell by 37.2%, as a result of which BTC bypassed this bank in terms of market value growth by more than 200%.
But the most impressive result was not bitcoin at all, but Ethereum, which has "grown fat" by almost 55% since the beginning of the year. According to a number of experts, ETH has very good prospects as its network becomes increasingly active. This is due, among other things, to the launch of decentralized financial applications (DeFi), which reduce the circulation of coins, creating an effect similar to the BTC halving.
The main altcoin was supported by the author of the Harry Potter series of novels, J.K. Rowling. Previously, she tried to figure out bitcoin, after which she stated that she was only “trolling bitcoin in the hope of increasing her significant ethereum assets.” True, this turned out to be a joke, but additional PR to ETH coins was provided.
At the moment, apologists for the main cryptocurrency do not consider ETH a competitor - the share of bitcoin in the market is 65% compared to 8.4% for ethereum. But it is enough to recall the middle of June 2017, when these coins were close to parity - 38% and 31%, and ask the question: why should the situation not happen again?


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As already mentioned in the first part of our review, while maintaining the current status quo, the pair has a lot of chances to stay within the side channel 1.0750-1.1000. However, further escalation of geopolitical tensions, reinforced by the repeated outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, is able to return gloomy moods to the markets again. Most likely, there will be no new panic, but interest in protective assets such as the US dollar will begin to grow again. For this reason, most experts (70%) do not rule out a breakthrough of support 1.0750 and a decrease of the pair to the lows of March in the area of 1.0635. The possibility of raising the pair to the zone 1.1100-1.1240 in the medium term is considered only by 30% of analysts.
Among the events that should be noted in the coming week are the release on May 28 of data on orders for durable goods, unemployment and US GDP, as well as, a day later, on May 29, data on the consumer market in the Eurozone;

- GBP/USD. Despite some positive macroeconomic data, the overall situation in the British economy does not look very happy. And this may push the Bank of England to increase the quantitative easing (QE) program by ?100 billion and lower the key interest rate to negative values. All these factors continue to pressure the pound, especially as the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, categorically stated that his organization is not considering the possibility of imposing negative rates on the US dollar.
At the moment 70% of analysts believe that the last week's correction has finished, and the pair is expected to further decline first to the horizon of 1.2075, and then to support 1.2000. In the event of a breakout of this important level, the pair will rush to the lows of March: 1.1640 and 1.1400.
85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 side with the bears. The remaining 15% of oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold, which 30% of experts agree with. In their opinion, the pair is expected to return first to the central zone of the channel 1.2165-1.2650, and then, possibly, rise to its upper boundary.
The compromise option is offered by graphical analysis on D1, which draws first a rise to 1.2350, and then a decrease by mid-June to 1.1400;

- USD/JPY. A strong decline in activity in the Japanese economy (the second largest economy in Asia and the third in the world after the economies of the USA and China) continues, and therefore inflation in the country will decrease, and production growth will slow down at least until early 2021. The Bank of Japan has been trying for a long time to warm up inflation by launching various incentive programs and keeping key rates in the red zone. However, there are still no major gains in sight, and further steps in this direction will only increase the pressure on the yen. The demand for the yen as for the haven-currency is on the opposite side of the scale, which will rise as the political and economic conflicts between the US and the PRC escalate. But this factor is more likely to affect the cross-rates of the Japanese currency, as the investors also see the dollar as a protective asset, even stronger than the yen.
However, 65% of experts expect the return of the USD/JPY pair to the minimum of May 06 in the 106.00 zone at the moment. Supports are 107.30, 106.80 and 106.20. Further growth of the pair is possible according to 35% of analysts. The targets are 107.85, 108.00, 108.50 and 109.25;

– cryptocurrencies. Traditionally, first about the medium - and long-term forecasts of well-known crypto enthusiasts. So, the Bloomberg Agency cites analyst Simon Peters that within the next 18 months, bitcoin will be able to break above $20,000. According to Peters, if the US and many other states do move to negative rates, the capital investment in bitcoin will start to grow at a rapid pace. After that, taking a mark of at least $20,000 will be inevitable, and the appearance of BTC/USD near the height of $ 50,000 is not ruled out.
A somewhat smoother takeoff is drawn by entrepreneur and author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki, according to whom, the intention of the US authorities to pour trillions of dollars into saving the pension plans will kill the economy of this country, which will cause the price of bitcoin to grow to $75,000 in three years.
If Kiyosaki measures the future of BTC by three years, renowned trader Tone Vays capped his forecast to just three days. He said live on ForkLog that “Bitcoin could rise very seriously. How high? Somewhere up to $12,000,” Vays said. And he added: "If we get stuck now and start falling to $9,000, I will expect us to fall below $8,000. Three days have passed, bitcoin is stuck at $9,000, and now, according to Vays's forecast, should we wait for its further collapse?
If we talk about the scenario for the coming week, here the votes of experts were more or less evenly distributed in the range of $8,400-10,000. But if we move on to a longer-term forecast, 80% of analysts are sure that bitcoin will still be able to gain a foothold above the $10,000 horizon by the end of June. However, of course, there are also pessimists who remind, as recently, between two “bad” dates — February 13 and March 13, just a month away, bitcoin collapsed from $10,480 to $3,845, making one think of its ultimate collapse.
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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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