LandOfCash Forex expert advisors, Trailing EA, Indicators.

Forex Trading Expert Advisors (EA or automated trading system) and Custom Indicators (CI) for MetaTrader Platform.

LOCTrailing With Partial Close Expert Advisor protect your orders profit. Trail stop level for manual and automatic orders with different algorithms, move stop loss into breakeven.

LOCInfo Custom Indicator follow the simple rules and make the right decision when to buy or sell. View Moving Average, Stochastic indicators from multiple time frames in one place.

Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 16 - 20, 2019



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As expected, both the Fed and the ECB have left their interest rates unchanged. Accordingly, the reaction of the markets to their decisions was almost zero. President Donald Trump and the new head of the ECB Christine Lagarde were on the side of the dollar last week.
The US President told his followers that "we (i.e. the US) are close to concluding a major deal with China. They want it, just like we do! » That is, if earlier President Trump said that the trade treaty is needed only by Beijing, now it turned out that Washington is also interested in signing it.
Later, Bloomberg reported that Trump, in order to prevent a tariff increase on December 15, has already signed an interim agreement, which, in addition to the rejection of new duties, provides for a reduction in existing tariff rates on many types of Chinese imports as well.
The second driver for the dollar was Christine Lagarde, who reported that the ECB, although it made some adjustments to the forecasts for GDP and inflation for 2020, has in general left in force the current parameters of its monetary policy.
Thanks to these two leaders, the results of the week could be very disastrous for the European currency, if not for the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK. The victory of the Conservative party pushed the pound sharply up, and in turn, it pulled the Euro up. As a result, at the maximum, the EUR/USD pair rose to the level of a strong medium-term support-resistance zone at around 1.1200. However, then the balance of powers was almost restored, and the pair finished at 1.1116;

- GBP/USD. Naturally, following the results of the elections, the gap was demonstrated by not only the Euro, but also, first of all, by the pound. The conservative party led by the current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won a steady majority of seats in Parliament, which gave hope that the years of confusion with Brexit will finally end, and on January 31, 2020, the process of Britain's exit from the EU will start.
Such an outcome of the election, in general, had been taken into account by the market. Therefore, after the GBP/USD pair soared by almost 500 points and rose above the level of 1.3500, many players began to close long positions, which was facilitated by the above-mentioned steps of President Trump. As a result, by the end of the trading session, the British currency lost almost 180 points, stopping the fall at 1.3340;

- USD/JPY. While the European and British currencies rose against the dollar, the yen, on the contrary, lost ground. Recall that the majority of experts last week voted for the growth of the pair to the height of 109.75, and this forecast was 100% accurate.
The US and China are almost close to signing a trade agreement, and the US stock market on Thursday 12 December updated the historical high. Investors' interest has once again turned to such risky assets as, for example, stock index futures, causing a sell-off of the Japanese currency, which was losing about 130 points at the maximum. The final chord of the week was made at the level of 109.35;

– cryptocurrencies. By the end of last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponded to the moderate fear of investors. That's how the market behaved: moderate purchases with more active sales. The BTC/USD pair moved in the range of $7,100-7,700 all week with some superiority of bears, which gradually pressed it to the lower border of this channel. In seven days, Bitcoin lost about 4.5%. Similar dynamics were demonstrated by top altcoins, such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), which generally repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. At first glance, there are a lot of important events ahead of us in the coming week. This is the publication of the PMI Markit of Germany and the EU on Monday 16 December, and the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday, and the publication of the annual data on U.S. GDP on Friday 20 December. However, it is hardly worth waiting for a repeat of the rate hikes, such as those that were caused by the last week's elections in the UK. Some of the experts believe that the pair will be pressured by the success in the US-China trade talks. Others, on the contrary, expect that the pair will continue to move upward for some time by inertia.
It should be noted that 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are still painted green. 85% of experts are also waiting for the pair to continue growing in the near future. However, this growth, in their opinion, will be insignificant. The pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.1200 again and, taking into account the backlash, it may rise to the zone of 1.1225-1.1235. The next resistance is 1.1255. However, then it will face a trend reversal and return to the 1.1000-1.1100 zone. The implementation of this scenario can take one to three weeks, and 65% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 fully agree with this;
UserPostedImage


- GBP/USD. Over the next five days, the UK's macroeconomic statistics will pour down on us like a cornucopia. On Monday¬, it is Markit Services PMI, on Tuesday it is ILO unemployment rate, on Wednesday - the consumer prices index, on Thursday - the Bank of England interest rate decision and the monetary policy report, on Friday it is the GDP data for the third quarter. That is, there isn't a day without news. But most importantly, the market will wait with bated breath for what Prime Minister Boris Johnson will say and do regarding the launch of the Brexit process. Recall that he still has until January 31, 2020 to ratify the agreement with the European Union in Parliament.
In the meantime, the experts' forecast for the pound looks about the same as for the Euro. Most of them (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, believe that the pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, which it reached on the night of Thursday 12 December to Friday the 13th. However, it is only 25% believe in the success of such a storm. The remaining 75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, believe that we will soon see the GBP/USD pair in the 1.3100-1.3200 zone once again. And, in fact, why not? What good is awaiting the UK after leaving the EU? That's the question;

- USD/JPY. 75% of analysts believe that the progress in the US-China trade talks will continue to push the pair up. Additional support will be provided by the growth of the yield spread of 10-year US and Japanese government bonds on the debt market. 85% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this forecast. The nearest resistance is 109.70, the goal is to consolidate in the zone 110.00-111.00.
The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will not be able to go beyond the side corridor 108.40-109.70, where it will continue to move at least until the end of the year. A possible reversal of the trend and the return of the pair to the support of 108.40 is also indicated by 15% of oscillators that give clear signals about the pair being overbought. The next support is 108.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third and is even down a quarter from the previous week, dropping to the 22 mark. In general, the current situation can be called stagnation. But the crypto market is famous for the fact that after a long lull, a sharp rise follows. Or a fall. After all, most traders come here to earn on the super-volatility of cryptocurrencies.
It does not matter for speculators whether the market is bullish or bearish at the moment. Thus, despite the price decline, the Bitcoin network has continued to expand recently and has now reached a record 28.4 million addresses. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. A similar dynamic was observed at the end of last year, when Bitcoin was trading at $3,200. At that time, many investors, taking advantage of the fall of the crypto currency, began to actively buy it.
According to the service glassnode, the number of wallets with a thousand or more bitcoins soared to a new high, their owners hope to make a profit, primarily as a result of the halving, which is scheduled for May 2020.
According to Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano, this event can multiply the price of Bitcoin, but its growth will be gradual. "I do not think that the price will soar the day after the halving, but I believe that, starting from the current values, it will rise to $100,000 by December 2021," the entrepreneur predicted.
Recall that as a result of the halving, the size of the reward in the bitcoin network will decrease twice, from 12.5 to 6.25 coins per block. But all this will happen in five months. If we talk about the forecast for the near future, 65% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to decline to the $6,500-6,800 zone. According to the remaining 35% of experts, the pair will attempt to rise above the level of $8,000



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
New Year's Eve Stocks-Surprise Gift from NordFX



December is the month of summing up the results of the year. But before doing so, NordFX decides to give its clients a New Year's surprise gift by expanding the range of trading instruments and introducing a new Stocks account designed for CFD trading with the shares of the world's largest companies.

UserPostedImage


At the moment, stocks of 68 companies, including IBM, JP Morgan Chase, Coca-Cola, Mastercard, McDonalds, Microsoft, Volkswagen, UBER, eBay, Alibaba, Deutsche Bank and many others, are offered for trading to traders and investors.

Trading is conducted on the well-known MetaTrader-4 platform. You can open both short and long positions on CFD contracts with a leverage of 1: 5. The total commission for a round-turn transaction is only 0.2%. It should be borne in mind that a long position held at dividend date receives the dividend amount, while a short position pays the dividend amount.

You can learn more about the trading instruments specifications, as well as open a Stocks account, at the NordFX website or through the Trader's Cabinet.


#stocks #trading #cfd #investor #trader #nordfx
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 23 - 31, 2019



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Starting on Monday from the level of 1.1110, the pair went up, as expected by most experts. The market did not react to the initiated impeachment of the US President Trump, and the S&P500 Index once again updated the historical maximum. However, the end of the year is the end of the year and the associated fall in volatility. Therefore, the pair failed to reach the target, the height of 1.1200, and recorded the maximum of the week at 1.1175.
Then everything happened again according to the scenario described by us in the previous forecast: the pair turned around and went south, braking at 1.1110. This was followed by several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, then on Thursday 19 December there was a rebound up on the background of the weak economic statistics from the US, and then again, a return to the 1.1110 zone.
It should be noted that, in addition to the horizontal support, this level coincided with the lower limit of the uptrend, which began on November 29, which is why the bulls stood up for it so fiercely. But their strength was exhausted at the very end of the week, and the support was broken. According to experts, this was facilitated by the decline in quotations for a number of cross-pairs, the release of positive statistics on the US consumer market, as well as the narrowing of the yield spread on US and German government bonds. In addition, at the time of the breakdown, many stop orders placed on long positions worked, which allowed the pair to fall to the level of 1.1065. This was followed by a slight rebound, and it ended the week at 1.1075;

- GBP/USD. Last week was not the most successful for the British currency. The negative dynamics in the debt market, where the yield of UK securities fell in comparison with the bonds of the US and Germany, weighed on the pound. Statistics on the consumer market also disappointed investors: retail sales fell in November at the highest pace for the whole year, by 0.6%. Whatever Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his supporters say, British consumers fear Brexit and therefore limit themselves in spending. The Bank of England contributed to the overall gloomy picture as well by lowering its economic growth forecast.
As a result, the pound moved according to the scenario developed for it by experts for the whole week. Recall that the majority of analysts (65%), supported by 90% of indicators on D1, expected that the GBP/USD pair will once again rush to storm the height of 1.3500, and that this storm will end in collapse. Indeed, on Monday, December 16, the pound went up, but was able to overcome only 85 points, then turned around and continued the fall, which had begun on Friday, December 13.
75% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis, voted for this development. According to their forecast, the pair should have reached the 1.3100-1.3200 zone very quickly, which happened on Tuesday. But the fall did not end there, and it was only on Friday 20 December, thanks to positive GDP data for the third quarter (growth of 0.4% instead of the forecast 0.3%), that the pound was able to find support at the level of 1.2990.
This was followed by a rebound up to 1.3080, supported by the adoption of the Brexit Act by the UK Parliament, and again a drop of 100 points. The final chord sounded at the level of 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. The news background on the yen is quite diverse. There is a strong rise in the US Treasury yields, with which the Japanese currency is strongly correlated, and the continuation of the oil uptrend, and hopes for the imminent completion of a comprehensive deal between Washington and Beijing. It is necessary to pay attention to the inflation figures in Japan. At the end of November, it was at the level of 0.5%, that is, it grew by 0.3%, which is, though not powerful, but still a favorable signal for the Bank of Japan and the economy as a whole. The yen reacts as the weathervane to the multidirectional statistics on the state of the American economy as well.
As a result, the most accurate forecast was the one supported by a quarter of analysts, according to which the pair will remain in the side channel 108.40-109.70 until the end of the year. In reality, the channel was even narrower: 109.15-109.70, and the pair ended the trading session in its central zone, at the level of 109.45;

– cryptocurrencies. On Saturday, December 14, the benchmark cryptocurrency went south. More precisely, it did not just go, but flew headlong, updating the six-month low by Wednesday and "losing weight" by more than 11%. According to the main version, voiced by Bloomberg analysts, the fall was caused by the sale by crypto-pyramid PlusToken of bitcoins worth about $2 billion, followed by other coins. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 9% in just 5 days, and some analysts rushed to put a "death cross" on Bitcoin, giving such a name to the intersection by the 50-day moving average from top to bottom of the 200-day MA).
However, rumors about the death of Bitcoin, as it has repeatedly happened, were greatly exaggerated. On Wednesday evening, it became known that the Bakkt platform demonstrates record volumes of trading in BTC futures. And having found support at the level of $6,470, Bitcoin quickly began to make up for losses, just in a few hours getting $1000 (+15%). After that, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it all started, to the values of December 14.
As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD), in general, they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency. It is just that the results of the seven-day trip were unprofitable for them. If Bitcoin fully recovered its losses, Ripple lost 12.5% of its value, Ethereum lost 11.5%, and Litecoin lost 10%. This result suggests that investors are getting rid of altcoins, redirecting financial flows towards the first cryptocurrency.


As for the forecast for the coming 10 days, perhaps we will not make a discovery, saying that Christmas and New Year holidays are ahead. In this regard:

- December 24 - Forex trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- December 25 - trading is closed
- December 26 - trading opens at 00: 00 CET
- December 31- trading closes at 17: 00 CET
- 01 January - trading is closed
- 02 January - trading opens at 00: 00 CET

- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY. With a high probability we expect quite sluggish trading in a narrow range throughout this time. Although, due to the subtlety of the market, emissions in one direction or another are not excluded. Gaps can be expected at the opening of markets after the New Year holidays.
If we talk about the forecasts of experts for the upcoming ten-day period, it is impossible to give preference to either bulls or bears, because the opinions of experts are divided:
- either in half: 50% for the growth and 50% for the fall,
- or equally in three parts: a third for the growth, a third for the decline and a third for a sideways trend.
The forecasts of analytical departments of global banks for the entire year 2020 are much more interesting, we will publish them exactly one week later. Naturally, they are based on fundamental factors. And as for the fans of technical analysis, we have gathered together in one table the indicator readings on the daily (D1) and weekly (W1) timeframes, which, we hope, will help you form an opinion about the main trends and market sentiment.
UserPostedImage


– cryptocurrencies. Unlike Forex, the crypto market never sleeps. And even if crypto traders celebrate holidays, they do not take their eyes off the trading terminal.
In general, the news background is positive:
- Banking giant Bank of America Merrill Lynch has named the best and the worst assets by investment performance over the past ten years. According to the bank's calculations, $1 invested in the first cryptocurrency in 2010 has now turned into $90,026.
Sweden's Central Bank Riksbank is exploring the possibility of creating a digital Swedish Krona.
The success of Bakkt was mentioned above. And this is a very positive signal for the crypto market, as it suggests that institutional investors (at least some of them), consider the current situation a good one to buy.
- Analysts have given their forecasts of the Bitcoin price for the beginning of 2020. Executives of South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges Bithumb, Korbit and Hanbitco argue that 2020 will be the best year for the crypto market due to demand for cryptocurrencies from institutional investors and people of generation Y (Millennials).
Amsterdam stock exchange analyst Michael van de Poppe is confident that the coin will rise to $8000 in early 2020, and a month after that it will rise to $9500. Alistair Milne, Investment Director of the Altana DS Fund, is also confident in the growth of the Bitcoin value. In his opinion, the coin will become more expensive in the run-up to the halving. In parallel, the sale of altcoins in favor of the main cryptocurrency will continue.
Another point of view is held by the founder of Signal Profits Jacob Kenfield, who predicts a decline in the rate of Bitcoin to $5500. But the worst news for today is that more than 20 thousand BTC tokens remain on the accounts of the PlusToken cryptopyramid. And if it continues to sell, according to Bloomberg forecasts, there is a risk of a fall in the price of Bitcoin down to $4000. However, this is not the limit. Calculations for ASIC miners have shown that Bitmain's S17 is a device in which mining will become unprofitable only if the price of Bitcoin falls below $3600. This means that it is at this level that the main support is situated.
For now, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in its lower third, at 29, which corresponds to the moderate fear of investors.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forecast: Dollar, Euro And Other Currencies In 2020



What to expect from major currency pairs in the New year.

There is no doubt that the vast majority of brokerage companies and private traders consider the EUR/USD pair as one of the main tools for their work. Different sources say that this pair holds from 22% to 32% of the Forex market. It is followed by USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP.

All these currencies, primarily the dollar and the euro, are more or less correlated with the main macroeconomic indicators and political events, which is a disadvantage from the point of view of technical analysis fans and, conversely, an advantage according to the apologists of fundamental analysis. In the first case, just one Twitter post by the US President breaks through the most powerful support/resistance zones, reverses channels and trends, drives indicators crazy and turns Elliott waves into small splashes. In the second case, macroeconomic statistics allow, without breaking heads over graphical figures and candlestick analysis, to give fairly accurate long-term forecasts. For example, forecasts for the next 12 months.

So, what, according to experts, awaits us in the coming year?

UserPostedImage


Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and a number of other banks reach consensus, predicting a fall in the US dollar in 2020. The main reason for this will be a slowdown in global economic growth, which will increase the demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.

Financial Times writes that, according to Citigroup experts, the policy of quantitative easing (QE), conducted by the Federal Reserve, and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity can become a catalyst for the dollar depreciation. Analysts of the Swiss Bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world largest investment companies, BlackRock, who expect a moderate decline in the dollar in the next six months, agree with their colleagues from Citigroup.

JPMorgan Chase experts predict the level of 1.14 for the EUR/USD pair at the end of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch call 1.15. And German Deutsche Bank and French Societe Generale forecasts for the dollar are even more gloomy: they believe that the euro will trade at $1.20 in a year.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast of the largest market operators suggests that by the end of 2020, the US dollar will "lose weight" by another 400-500 points, and the EUR/USD pair will rise to the 1.16 zone.

Conspiracy theorists, of course, suspect market manipulation and talk about the fact that bankers want to buy dollar liquidity at the lowest prices, for which they spread "bearish" forecasts. And here it is appropriate to recall the words of Andreas Koenig, head of Global FX in the multinational investment company Amundi Asset Management, that he had heard many times before about the fall of the dollar against the euro, and every time the opposite happened. "I would be very surprised if this consensus came to fruition," he said.

"It is true that the Fed's interest rate of 1.75% is small," says John Gordon, a leading analyst at brokerage NordFX, "but other regulators have zero or negative interest rates at all. Despite rate cuts, trade wars and other problems, the dollar has risen against the euro by more than 10% since February 2018. And if you look back at the past year results, it is clear that for many investors, due to the weakness of the European economy and the problems with Brexit, the dollar has become a safe haven currency. And for Central Banks, it remains the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets."

As for other currencies, Goldman Sachs predicts that the exchange rate of the British pound to the dollar by the end of 2020 will reach 1.37.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch also believes that not only the euro, but, first of all, the pound should benefit from resolving the uncertainty with Brexit, resulting in the GBP/USD pair rising to the horizon of 1.39. The falling dollar will also support emerging markets, strengthening the currencies of the countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the quotes of the USD/JPY pair will fall to 103 yen per dollar.

The Canadian and New Zealand dollars will continue to attract interest, and the price of gold will go up.

Leap year 2020 is 12 months, 366 days, and during these days a lot can happen that can disprove any forecasts. The dollar will depend on the domestic situation in the United States, and on what is happening in global markets, not only in America, but also in Europe and Asia. "I think a full-scale USA deal with China will change the rules of the game... It will change everything!"- predicts David Bloom, global FX strategist at HSBC.

Will it change anything? It is not long that is left to find out the answer to this question. In the meantime:
Patience, good luck and fulfillment of the most cherished wishes to you!

Happy New Year, 2020!


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #Forex #forexbrokers #signaltek #cryptocurrency #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 06 - 10, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Holidays are for people to get distracted for a while from daily problems, plunging into the magic atmosphere of miracle expectation. And miracles happen, and financial markets are no exception, as we have already warned our readers.
In normal times, investors look either towards the riskier stock market, or seek to hide their capital in safe havens, preferring government bonds, gold and safe-haven currencies. But Christmas and New Year are unusual times, and the market is so thin these days that it can be managed even on small volumes. As a result, in the last decade of December, both the S&P500 stock index continues to update historical highs, and gold, along with the yen and the franc, show an impressive growth. And treasury debt obligations are not going to retreat from the won positions. New Year's miracles, that is! But, as you know, there are much less holidays in the year than working days. And the market returns to its normal state this week.
As for EUR/USD, starting from November 29, the pair is slowly moving along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year, 2020, with a gap down. The pair almost got to the bottom of the channel on Friday afternoon January 03, and then the pair returned to the central zone of the channel on a fairly dismal statistics on business activity in the USA (index ISM in manufacturing sector was below expectations and failed to rise above $50) and ended the week in the area of strong support/resistance 1.1160;

- GBP/USD. The week's result of the British pound was close to zero. Starting at 1.3085, it ended the five-day period at 1.3075, losing just 10 points. However, due to its relatively high volatility, it did not deprive traders of the opportunity to profit: its range of fluctuations over these days amounted to more than 230 points;

- USD/JPY. In contrast to the pound, which ended the five-day period with almost zero results, safe-haven currencies are growing rapidly against the dollar. Thus, the yen gained almost 135 points against the "American": starting from the horizon of 109.45, it finished at 108.10;

– cryptocurrencies. The digital asset market, as well as the Forex market, continues to sum up the results of the past year. For example, the online portal ForkLog has compiled a list of the most prominent and influential crypto persons in 2019. The top 10 is headed by the head of the Bitcoin exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao, in the middle of the list is the head of Facebook Mark Zuckerberg and the Telegram creator Pavel Durov, and the top ten is completed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ethereum developer Vitalik Buterin.
Bitcoin, despite all the rate hikes, rose by 110% in 12 months, the S&P500 index rose by 22.8%, and gold added 19% over the same period. The result for the reference cryptocurrency, in general, is quite good, but only for those investors who invested in the coin at the beginning of the year, and not in the mid summer. For the latter, a completely different, sad melody sounds.
Now let's move on to the results of the last week. And here there is nothing to talk about: the same side trend. The pair BTC/USD grows to $7,550 on Dec 29, then drops to $6,900 by 03 January, and then returns to where it started the week in the area of $7,300. In general, it is a complete disappointment for investors. But as for active traders who trade on short timeframes, with a leverage of 1: 50, like with the broker NordFX, the jumps of $650 is a good opportunity to make a profit.
As for the top altcoins, things are also flat here: there is a movement in very narrow side channels with gradual consolidation for a third week running: Ripple (XRP/USD) is around $0.19, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – $130 and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - $42 per coin. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen to $190 billion, and Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is gradually approaching its neutral position (now it is at 38), which, in fact, also indicates a stagnation in the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Last week, we summarized the forecasts given for 2020 by analysts at JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank and a number of other global banks. Recall that, in general, they reached a consensus, predicting the fall of the dollar against the euro and the growth of the pair to levels from 1.1400 to 1.2000. The main reason was a slowdown in global economic growth, which should increase demand for riskier assets. Especially so since the US Federal Reserve, on the eve of the presidential election, under pressure from Donald Trump, is likely to continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the existing level.
However, there is also an opposite opinion, which is again tied to the US presidential election. It is noted that it is during the election years that the US currency shows particularly good results. In such periods over the past 40 years, the USD index declined only twice. But the euro fell in 9 cases out of 11. So, if you focus on these statistics, the dollar should be bought, not sold. Moreover, for Central Banks, it is still the main reserve currency, far ahead of any other assets.
As for the near future, 55% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators on D1, expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the ascending channel at the level of 1.1240. The next target is 1.1330. The strengthening of the euro over the dollar can be also facilitated by the macroeconomic data, which we will learn next week. So, on Tuesday, January 07, the December value of the ISM business activity index in the service sector will be known, and on Friday, data on the labor market in the United States will be released. And if the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) decreases, according to the forecast, by 40% (from 266K to 160K), this will have a negative impact on the dollar. However, often the market reacts in advance to such predictions, so that immediately at the time of the release of statistics there may not be strong jerks.
In addition to these 55% of bull supporters, there are also 45% of experts who support bearish sentiment. 85% of the indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on the same timeframe side with them. Support levels are 1.1100, 1.1065 and 1.1000;
UserPostedImage


- GBP/USD. The situation with the pound is again confused and depends on how and what happens to the process of leaving the EU. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, expressed concern that there is little time left for negotiations on the UK's relations with the European Union after Brexit. In her view, the 11-month transition period for negotiations is extremely short and may have to be extended. And her Deputy Frans Timmermans called on the British to immediately return to the bosom of the European family after the divorce.
In the meantime, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow to the upper limit of the channel 1.3050-1.3215. The goals in case of a breakout are 1.3285, 1.3425 and the December 13 high of 1.3515. Graphical analysis, 15% of trend indicators on D1 and the same number of oscillators that give signals about the pair being oversold agree with this development.
The remaining 40% of analysts and the vast majority of indicators vote for the fall of the pair. The nearest strong support is at 1.2975, the goal is to reach the 1.2825-1.2900 zone;

- USD/JPY. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 70% of analysts believe that the fall of the pair will stop at the level of 107.80, having fought off from which, the pair will first go to the resistance of 109.25, and then to the maximum values of last December in the area of 109.70.
30% expect that the strengthening of the yen will continue, so the pair will be able to fall to the support of 107.50, and then another 100 points lower.
As for the indicators, 100% of them are colored red on H4 and 85% on D1. Signals of the pair being oversold are given by 15% of oscillators on D1, which is often confirmed by the rapid change of trend;

– cryptocurrencies. Forecasts for the near future are as gray and boring as the charts of crypto pairs. However, the closer to the May halving of Bitcoin, the more green color and optimism of experts appear. 70% of them expect that the quotes will go up sharply. The picture is similar among investors. According to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins were in motion in 2019. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state, in the hope of a future growth.
Of course, there are pessimists among analysts. According to their forecasts, the pair BTC/USD will soon have another fall. The new generation of mining equipment (ASIC S17 and T17) makes this process cost-effective, even if Bitcoin falls to the $3500-4400 zone, and this is where they believe the really strong support is located. But if the pair breaks through it, then we can talk about the end of the 10-year history of the world's first digital currency.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
NordFX Professional Prizes and Awards Reach 50



At the end of 2019, NordFX was prized with three more professional awards. Thanks to this, the company can now claim to be one of the most titled brokers in the world: the total number of honorary prizes and awards it has received since 2008 has reached 50.

UserPostedImage


According to the results of the annual voting on the website of the IAFT Awards, NordFX won the Best Broker in Asia for the second year in a row, where It beat many of its colleagues in the financial market by a large margin.
The IAFT Awards are organized By the International Association of Forex Traders, which includes more than 200,000 traders from different countries. Each of them can vote on the website of the award, which allows you to objectively evaluate the activities of a particular broker.

The trading community of the MasterForex-V Academy also expressed its trust and recognition of the company, giving NordFX the title of "Traders' Choice World Best Broker". As explained by the Chairman of the Jury and a member of the Rectorate of the Academy O. Voron, "in 2019, 52% of new real trading accounts of Masterforex-V traders and 46% at pro-rebate.com were opened with NordFX, which has once again confirmed the advantages of this broker."

The company also won in the main category of the MasterForex-V Academy, receiving the Grand Prix as the "World Best Broker" in 2019, ahead of all its competitors on 22 independent criteria for evaluating the brokers activity.
"It is a surprising fact," said Mr. Voron, " that NordF? has managed to create excellent trading conditions on all types of accounts, both for beginners and experienced traders, with a wide range of financial instruments, high quality dealing and trust-business relationships with clients."

Last year, NordFX was also named the "Best Crypto Broker" by the Fxdailyinfo portal, and It received the "Excellent Affiliate Program" award at the Saigon Financial Education Summit, for its two-level affiliate program, which has already attracted more than 25,000 people from different countries.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #Forex #forexbrokers #signaltek #cryptocurrency #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 13-17, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As you know, life is like a zebra: a black stripe comes after a white one, and vice versa. That was what happened this time as well: after the merry New Year holidays came the anxious expectation of a full-fledged war between the United States and Iran. But, a few days later it became clear that both sides want to avoid a full-fledged conflict, and the tension in the geopolitical field went gradually down, which is clearly visible in the oil prices.
Last week, everything went well for the US dollar at first. The US currency was growing thanks to new record highs in the US stock market and optimistic statements of the Fed's leaders. So, the President of the Federal reserve of Richmond Thomas Barkin said that the country's economy and the labor market in the United States looked strong. And according to Fed Vice President Richard Clarida, the current monetary policy of his organization is fully consistent with the state of the country's economy. According to forecasts, US GDP growth in 2020 may be 2-2.5%, or even more.
Up until Friday, January 10, the dollar was growing in anticipation of strong data from the US labor market. As a result, as expected by 45% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the EUR/USD pair fell to the support of 1.1100, and then by another 15 points. But the data on the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) disappointed the market so strongly (a drop of 43%) that the pair turned sharply north, jumping to the height of 1.1130. It met the end of the trading session at the level of 1.1120;

- GBP/USD. For the third week in a row, the result for the British pound is close to zero. Starting from the horizon of 1.3075, by Tuesday January 07, it reached the height of 1.3210, then fell to the support of 1.3010, turned around again and finished the five-day period at 1.3060, losing only 15 points during this time. However, as before, due to its rather high volatility, the pair did not deprive traders of the opportunity to earn: the weekly scope of its fluctuations amounted to 200 points;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair was 100% accurate. Recall that, in the opinion of the majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, the pair's drop had to stop at the level of 107.80, having rebounced from which it was supposed to go to the 109.25 resistance, and then to the last December highs in the area of 109.70.
In reality, on Monday, January 06, the pair found the bottom at 107.76, turned around and went up. On Wednesday, the yen made another attempt to gain a foothold below the level of 107.00, however, it was unsuccessful as well, and by the end of the week, the pair, as expected by experts, reached the set height of 109.70. This was followed by a small correction, and the final chord sounded at the level of 109.50;

– cryptocurrencies. Indeed, it seems that a number of investors are considering Bitcoin as a financial haven. So, against the background of the confrontation between the US and Iran, the reference cryptocurrency reached a month-and-a-half high, breaking some important resistance levels. Fake information about a sharp increase in the capitalization of stablecoin Tether (USDT) on CoinMarketCap by $500 million also contributed to the growth. As a result, the cost of BTC soared to the height of $8,450 per coin.
The analysis of what happened last week suggests that the crypto market quotes begin to be increasingly influenced by algorithmic trading. Reacting only to the momentum of the price, which in this case was up, the robots began buying coins, giving an additional force to this momentum.
Soon after it became known about the reduction of tension around Iran, and that the information about $500 million is just a fake, the price of Bitcoin went down, dropping to $7,765, then went up again, reaching the height of $8,100 by the evening of Friday, January 10.
As a result of these events, the growth of Bitcoin, starting from January 03, was at a maximum of about 17%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – the same 17%, Ripple (XRP/USD) – 22%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - 27%. At the same time, the total capitalization increased by 10%, and the Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is another three points closer to its neutral position, reaching 41.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved on an upward channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year 2020 with a gap down. On January 08, it broke through the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.1125, but due to negative data on the labor market in the United States, the bears could not consolidate their success, and the pair finished the week session almost at the level of the breakdown.
Will it return to the limits of the ascending channel? 60% of experts do not think so. In their opinion, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair is expected to decline to the zone of 1.1040-1.1065, the next goal is 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and the majority (70%) of trend indicators on D1 agree with this development. The readings of trend indicators on H4 and oscillators on H4 and D1 can be considered neutral at the moment.
According to the forecasts of the remaining 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD pair will not be able to break through the support at the level of 1.1100, and it will return at least to the central line of the ascending channel, which will be in the zone of 1.1240.
Of course, the trends of the coming week may be affected by the escalation of tension around Iran. But no extra surprises should probably not be expected from the publication of macroeconomic indicators. On Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, data on the US consumer market will be published. On January 16, we will also learn the values of the German HICP consumer price index, which is projected to remain unchanged. The report on the ECB's monetary policy meeting may be more interesting, it will also be published on Thursday 16 January;

- GBP/USD. The UK is less than three weeks away from parting with the European Union. According to Bloomberg, to date, Brexit has already cost the country $170 billion, and by the end of 2020, London will lose another $90 billion. The annual economic growth has halved from 2% to 1%. The British economy is now 3% smaller than it could be if the relations with the EU had remained at the same level. The UK economy is lagging behind the G7 countries and, according to some economists, it has a long way to recover.
In the near future, the pound is highly likely to still move in a fairly wide side channel 1.2900-1.3200 with a Pivot Point in the zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the same time, according to 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of indicators on H4 and D1, the pair will continue to move to its lower border in the coming week. Supports are 1.3010, 1.2970 and 1.2900.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, on the contrary, will break away from the central zone and is likely to reach the December 31, 2019 high at the height of 1.3285. According to the indications of graphical analysis, it may take about four or five days, after which it will return to the Pivot Point;

- USD/JPY. Last week, the pair not only returned to the borders of the medium-term side channel 108.40-109.70, but also reached its upper border. Although 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators are colored green, only 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to rise to the height of 110.70. The majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, as well as 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are109.20, 108.75 and 108.40. Reaching the last week's lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is unlikely;
UserPostedImage


– cryptocurrencies. We have already written that, according to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins in 2019 were in motion. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state. Similar figures were received by Delphi Digital. According to its data, at least 59% of bitcoins purchased in the second half of 2017 have not moved anywhere. That is, their holders did not sell their cryptocurrency even in December 2017, when BTC soared to $20,000 on some trading platforms. Such data suggests that a stable layer of so-called holders has formed in the cryptosphere, who do not part with their coins even when the market is growing aggressively.
Perhaps they are waiting for 2040, when, according to the calculations of Benjamin Cowen, the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million. According to Cowen, the history of the main cryptocurrency price shows that the market cycles are getting longer: it took 2.5 years to reach the first peak and 4 years to reach the second peak. Extrapolating the model of logarithmic regression to the price of Bitcoin, the expert suggests that it would take about 5.5 years to reach the next peak (after the peak of December 2017), and in 2023 the price of Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark. And the Bitcoin of $1mln cannot be earlier than 2040.
At the same time, of course, there is another opinion, according to which, under pressure from regulators, Bitcoin will go into oblivion, and it will be replaced by state and regional digital money. The ECB has started thinking about developing its own cryptocurrency, the BRICS countries are contemplating a single cryptocurrency and the Bank for International settlements has already held the first summit of G20 Central bankers, which discussed the idea of a global cryptocurrency.
But all this is a matter of the distant future. In the meantime, the highs and lows of the past week allow us to say that the BTC/USD pair has moved to a new level of $7,765-8,450 with a Pivot Point in the $8,000-8,100 zone. At the same time, only 30% of analysts believe that it will be able to stay in this corridor, while 70% expect it to fall to the $7,000-7,500 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 20 - 24, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached the upper limit of the channel at 1.1240, and then changed direction and on January 08, it broke through the lower limit of the channel at 1.1225. "Will it return to its limits?"– we asked this question last week, to which the majority of experts (60%) answered with a firm "no". And they turned out to be right: Until Thursday, January 16, the bulls tried to do this, but then their strength weakened, and the pair went down sharply.
Even the signing of the "first phase" trade agreement between the US and China did not help the bulls. According to this document, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of American goods and services by about $200 billion in the next two years, and Washington, for its part, promised to lower the duty on Chinese imports worth $120 billion to 7.5% and not introduce new fees.
It should be noted that, in general, this event had already been taken into account by the markets, but still caused a further increase in the US stock indexes and a slight decline in the dollar. Investors continued to reform assets, preferring shares rather than money.
However, the fall of the dollar and the EUR/USD pair was soon stopped due to the publication of the December ECB meeting minutes and the retail sales data in the United States.
In the first case, the management of the European mega-regulator announced that it is not going to raise the key interest rate until the inflation approaches the 2% mark. Moreover, the ECB did not rule out the possibility of moving the rate from the current zero level to the negative zone. As for the second factor, the retail trade volume in the United States increased from -0.1% to + 0.5%, and, as you know, consumer spending accounts for more than 65% of the US GDP. As a result, the euro began to lose its positions against the dollar, and the pair ended the trading session in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of 1.1100, at the level of 1.1090;

- GBP/USD. This pair showed similar dynamics to the EUR/USD, but, as usual, with a much larger scale. So, if the difference between the week low and high for the EUR/USD was just over 85 points, this value was twice as high for the British currency.
The active sale of the pound on January 17 was caused by the report on the UK retail sales for December. The monthly indicator was in the negative area, and the annual indicator was three times less than the forecast value. As a result, at the end of the week, the pound fell to the January 09 low, and ended the five-day period at 1.3015 - exactly where, according to most experts, the medium-term Pivot Point (1.3000-1.3050) of this pair is located;

- USD/JPY. 25% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators, voted for the pair to rise to the level of 110.70. It did go up, but the pair's growth was stopped at 110.30. Despite the fact that the yen lost only about 80 points to the dollar during the week, this can be considered a significant event, since it overcame the psychologically important level of 110.00. Recall that after passing the mark of 29.000, the Dow Jones index confidently went up, and it is possible that the same thing will happen with the USD/JPY pair;

– cryptocurrencies. Every Wednesday, analysts of NordFX brokerage company publish weekly reviews of the cryptocurrency market on NordFX's Facebook page, Twitter channel, and other social networks. In another such review on Wednesday, January 15, it was suggested that the cost of BTC in February has all the chances to rise to the level of 9,5 thousand dollars. Increased correlation with gold as well as various external factors will allow the main coin to add at least $1000 per month. Among these factors, first of all, the use of bitcoin as a safe haven asset should be noted. A clear proof of this phenomenon was the growth of the main cryptocurrency against the background of escalating tensions around Iran.
On Tuesday last week, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the successful launch of a new financial instrument, the option for Bitcoin, which allowed the BTC/USD quotes to reach a landmark level of $9,000 on Friday, January 17. Thus, the pair's growth over the past two weeks has exceeded 22%.
Altcoins also soared in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ripple (XRP/USD) showed an increase of 25%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – 30%, and the most impressive was the strengthening of Litecoin (LTC/USD): its growth was about 50%. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 14.5% and reached $245 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. For three weeks in a row, the pair is moving down, the euro has fallen by about 240 points. The vast majority of indicators are now red not only on H4, but also on D1. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south. The nearest support is 1.1065, the bears' target is 1.1000.
At the same time, some of the oscillators already give active signals about the pair being oversold. 60% of experts also look up. In their opinion, the pair will try once again to return to the limits of the medium-term ascending channel, which started in early December 2019. The nearest resistance is 1.1150. The targets are 1.1200 and 1.1240; The pair's growth may be helped by the outflow of capital to the stock market, provoked by the decline in tensions in trade relations between the US and China. This reduced the probability of a recession in the United States to 24%, which is the lowest rate in the last eight months.
Monday, January 20, is a day off in the United States, but it is at this time that the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on the interest rate, which is currently 4.15%. In addition, other events are of interest. On Tuesday, January 21, the German business sentiment Index will be published. According to forecasts, it may fall from 10.7 to 4.3 units, which may lead to some weakening of the European currency. On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the interest rate will be announced, and a press conference of the European regulator's management will also be held. And on Friday, January 24, we are waiting for a whole series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole;
UserPostedImage


- GBP/USD. Two macro indicators will help to assess the state of the UK economy, such as the ILO unemployment rate, which will be released on Tuesday, and the Markit business activity index, being published on Friday 24 January. However, in the run-up to the upcoming Brexit, they are unlikely to have a serious impact on the formation of trends for this pair.
The pair finished the previous week in the mid-term Pivot Point zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the time of writing the forecast, just as in the case of the euro, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow, 40% – to fall. Indicators, especially oscillators, look very versatile. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates first the pair's growth to the level of 1.3120, and then a fall to the horizon of 1.2770.
Support levels are 1.2955, 1.2900, 1.2825 and 1.2770. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3210 and 1.3285;

- USD/JPY. Here, everything points to a slight advantage of the bulls, who will try to keep the pair above the 110.00 mark and move it as high as possible from this border. Thus, 55% of analysts, 70% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate a gradual growth of the pair. The nearest strong resistance level is 110.75, and the next one is 100 points higher.
15% of experts have given a neutral forecast, and 30% have voted for the fall of the pair. The largest number of signals about the pair being overbought have been given by oscillators on D1. The main support level is 109.70. If it breaks, the pair may fall to the zone of 109.00, and then to the horizon of 108.40. Reaching the January 06-08 lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is still unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. Finally, it happened: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and risen to 54, approaching the zone called "Greed". Is it good or bad? According to the index developers, it can be dangerous to open short positions at this moment. And what about the long ones?
65% of analysts believe that the upward momentum of the BTC/USD pair has not yet been exhausted and it is able to gain a foothold in the $9,000-10,000 zone.
An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of experts. Agreeing that the situation is somewhat similar to 2017, they draw attention to the fact that, starting from June 2019, we are seeing a series of decreasing highs: $13,765 on June 26, $13,170 on July 10, $12,320 on August 06, $10,480 on October 26. And it is possible that $9,000 will be the next local high, followed by another collapse.
But for now, the market is full of optimism, and the predictions of all sorts of crypto enthusiasts are breaking all thinkable and unthinkable records. The most modest is the forecast of the analytical firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, which has stated that in the coming year, Bitcoin is highly likely to bring investors more than 100% of profits. According to the Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, the most important factors that will contribute to the growth of the price of the first cryptocurrency are halving, geopolitical risks and the US presidential election.
The most "space" forecast was given by Blockstream CEO Adam Back. He is convinced that the dreams of Bitcoin worth $100 thousand and even $10 million are not so far from reality. Back has commented on the idea of one of the leading representatives of the cypherpunk movement, Hal Finney, who is historically considered the second developer of Bitcoin, after Satoshi Nakamoto. Finney suggested "as a thinking experiment" to imagine that Bitcoin has become the dominant payment system in the world. "The total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the world's wealth. Current estimates of household assets around the world that I have found range from $100 to $ 300 trillion. If there are 20 million coins, the value of each of them will be about $10 million, " Finney wrote. Beck noted that due to the rising dollar inflation, " this is closer than it seems." But the crypto prophet did not specify how much closer.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 03 - 07, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The past week passed under the sign of the coronavirus, which determined the lion's share of what was happening in the markets. Commodities and currencies that are most clearly linked to China have suffered the most.
As you know, the euro zone economy is closely correlated with the Chinese economy, and this played into the hands of the dollar in the first half of the week. As expected by the majority (55%) of experts, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1, the EUR/USD pair went down and reached the 1.1000 support on Wednesday, January 29.
After reaching the local bottom at 1.0992, it turned around and headed back north.
This move could have stopped the WHO (World Health Organization) statement, but its officials did everything possible to avoid causing panic in the markets and finally undermining economic activity. On the one hand, the WHO declared the coronavirus epidemic an emergency of international significance, but on the other, it asked people to behave as usual.
As a result, the European currency continued its growth, even despite the release of weak macroeconomic data from the eurozone. The pair was supported not only by US GDP data, but also by the Bank of England's decision to keep the interest rate (more on this later). Throughout 2019, the pound and the euro supported each other in the fight against the dollar, so the growth of the British currency could not help but push up its European "counterpart". The elimination of short positions on the eve of the weekend also contributed to the growth of the EUR/USD pair on Friday. As a result, by the end of the weekly session, the pair returned to the medium-term Pivot Point zone, around which it has been fluctuating since mid-July 2019 -1.1085-1.1100, confirming the hypothesis about the equilibrium state of these two currencies in the recent months;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England minutes of January 30: the volume of asset purchases by the Bank of England: unchanged (£435B), the interest rate: unchanged (0.75%), the number of votes cast for keeping the rate unchanged: unchanged (7), the number of votes for lowering it: unchanged (2). That is, everything is exactly as it was a month ago. And this "no change" suddenly pushes the British pound up against the dollar and against a number of other currencies, including the euro. Why?
January 31 is the official date of the UK's exit from the European Union, however, by the end of 2020, according to the agreement on the transition period, there are no serious events on this front, the country is waiting for another round of long negotiations with the EU. The coronavirus could shake up the market. Due of its outburst, the probability of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England went up. However, this did not happen. The Monetary Policy Committee considered that the improvement in the economic situation after the December elections to the UK Parliament will continue in the future and decided to leave the rate unchanged.
What happened fully justified the forecast, for which the main (65%) part of analysts voted last week. In their opinion, the GBP/USD pair should first break through the resistance of 1.3160, and then approach the height of 1.3200. This actually happened: the British currency set the final chord at the level of 1.3202;

- USD/JPY. Many investors felt that a safe-haven currency like the yen could protect them from the onset of the coronavirus. This confidence and the reversal from risky assets to protective ones contributed to another strengthening of the Japanese currency last week. 40% of experts named the level of 108.40 as the main support for the USD/JPY pair, in the area of which it ended the working week at the mark of 108.36;

– cryptocurrencies. It should be noted that last week only 20% of experts supported the opinion that by the end of January, Bitcoin will be able to gain a foothold above the $9,000 horizon. The vast majority (70%) expected this to happen only 2-3 weeks later. However, the coronavirus did its job.
- US stocks started the week with a big sell-off. All the three main indicators went into a negative territory amid concerns about the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 400 points, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 1.8%, and the S&P 500 lost 1.4%. At the same time, Bitcoin rose, reaching the level of $9.550 USD on the night of Thursday to Friday. "Every time the regulated markets fall due to fear and apprehension, Bitcoin grows. And this reinforces the concept of the main cryptocurrency as a safe haven asset, " analyst Nathaniel Whittemore explained what is happening in an interview with BlockTV.
The growth of the leading cryptocurrency also gave a boost to the entire crypto market, pushing top coins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), into the green zone. The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market also went up: if on January 25, it was $235bn, five days later it reached the level of almost $267bn, showing an increase of 13.5%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Some Americans think that everything that happens outside the United States does not concern them. But this is not the case at all. The economy of the United States depends largely on what happens in other countries. And, realizing this, the Fed is quite sensitive to international challenges, which is why it is sometimes called the "tail" that the dog, the global GDP, turns. At the moment, the next challenge is the coronavirus coming from China. Although there has been no obvious reaction from the "tail" yet.
The coronavirus has not yet been localized, so panic moods that lead to the sale of risky assets may become the main trend of the coming week. A positive piece of news, say, about the successful creation of a vaccine against this infection, can dramatically "turn the rivers back". It is very difficult to predict anything in this case.
If we talk about technical analysis, most of the indicators on H4 are colored green, while on D1 the neutral gray dominates. But on both timeframes, about 15% of the oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, which can serve as a harbinger, if not of a change in the trend, then at least of a certain correction to the south. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
The experts' opinion at the moment, as well as that of indicators on D1, can be called neutral-gray. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, it becomes more and more green, reaching a high of 70%. That is the number of analysts who believe that, having overcome the resistance in the 1.1100-1.1115 zone, the pair will consistently storm the height of 1.1145 in February, then 1.1170, 1.1200 and reach the December 31, 2019 high at 1.1240.
As for macroeconomic statistics, next week we will know the values of the ISM business activity indices in the US manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the traditional for the first Friday of the month data on the US labor market (including NFP).
However, the markets may expect a surprise as early as on Monday, February 03, when the January Caixin Purchasing Managers' activity index (PMI) is published, which is a leading indicator of the state of China's manufacturing sector. Its value can give the market a signal about how the coronavirus has affected the economic situation in China.
Monday's surprises may not end there – on February 03, the real season of "hunting" for the us President's seat opens. This day will be the first democratic primary in Iowa. And in the event of a strong Bernie Sanders result, there may be an equally strong market reaction;
UserPostedImage


- GBP/USD. After such an impressive jump up by 230 points at the end of last week, the vast majority of indicators on both H4 and D1 are colored green. However, as with the previous pair, about 15% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. Following them, the graphical analysis on D1 draws a possible fall of the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. The nearest strong support is 1.3100.
It should be noted that, starting a month and a half ago with fluctuations in the range 1.2900-1.3285, the pair gradually reduced volatility to the boundaries of 1.2975-1.3200. Most analysts (55%) believe that it will be able to stay within this corridor in the near future. However, not much less (45%) are those who expect the pound to continue its positive dynamics, break through the resistance in the zone of 1.3285-1.3300 and rise to the highs of last December in the area of 1.3500;

- USD/JPY. The upcoming quotes of this pair directly depend on the success of virologists. If they can tame the coronavirus in the next few days, the dollar will win. If the epidemic begins to take over new territories, and the number of its victims continues to multiply, the advantage will be on the side of the Japanese currency - the haven.
Since financial analysts do not currently have data on what is happening in scientific laboratories, their opinions are divided 50-50. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 80% of oscillators on H4 and D1 predict the pair's fall. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with them. Support levels are 107.70, 107.00 and 106.60. The opposite opinion is held by the graphical analysis on D1 and 20% of the oscillators that signal the pair is oversold. Resistance levels are 109.25, 109.70, the target is 110.25;

– cryptocurrencies. The BTC/USD pair has shown an increase of 30% or $2,200 in the first month of 2020. The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and is now at the level of 55 out of the possible 100. Analysts' optimism has also grown. If earlier, remembering the unexpected collapses of the main cryptocurrency, they were afraid to give positive forecasts, now 60% of them boldly point to the $10,000 mark. And this is where investors need to be especially careful: it is in the moments of greatest optimism that large speculators can start an active game on the downside. And you don't need to go far for examples – just look at what happened last year.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
michaelruss
  • Posts: 1
  • Joined: 03/02/2020
Who has already used this broker this year? Is it ok to work with them and what chances to get profit?
There are such services as MasterPapers.com  can provide you with instant assistance.
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 10 - 14, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The statistics in the United States (including ISM and NFP) look rather optimistic. The US indices have updated their record levels over the past five days: The Dow Jones is 29393 and the S&P500 is 3345. Production orders in Germany have been falling by 0.5% for three months in a row, confirming concerns about the state of the European economy, which is teetering on the edge of recession. As a result, expectations are growing among investors regarding the expansion of quantitative easing (QE) policy in the euro zone, and confidence is growing that the dollar rate will remain at least unchanged. This has recently been stated by the Fed Vice President Randal Quarles. Donald Trump also radiates optimism ahead of the presidential election, insistently reminding the voters that the unemployment in the US is at a record low of 3.5%.
Recall that the opinion of experts, as well as most indicators on D1, regarding the pair's quotes on the last five-day period, was neutral-gray: 50-50. First of all, because of the unclear situation with the coronavirus. But at the same time, on both timeframes, H4 and D1, about 15% of the oscillators gave signals the pair was overbought and the trend reversal down was upcoming. Graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this development, foreshadowing a return to a very strong support of 1.0990-1.1000.
This is exactly what happened: the pair did turn around and reached the specified support on Wednesday, February 05. This was followed by a 20-hour battle of the bulls and the bears, which, in the end, ended with the victory of the latter. The dollar continued to rise, while the euro continued to fall. The decline in coronavirus infection rates and the market support from the Central Bank of China played into the hands of the US currency. As a result, on Friday, February 07, after updating the multi-month low, the pair found a local bottom at 1.0940, and ended the trading session at 1.0945;

- GBP/USD. Following the euro, the pound lost its position against the dollar. An additional pressure is exerted on it by concerns that the UK will still not be able to agree a trade deal with the EU during the post-Brexit transition period.
As in the case of EUR/USD, about 15% of oscillators last week gave clear signals about the pair being overbought, and graphical analysis predicted a decline in the British currency first to the horizon of 1.2970, and then to the level of 1.2800. In fact, the pair's fall stopped on Friday, February 07, approximately in the middle of the named range – in the 1.2880 zone;

- USD/JPY. The decrease in the rate of the coronavirus infection and the hopes for an early victory over this infection reduce the interest of markets in safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen. As a result, the pair managed to break the landmark level of 110.00 in the second half of the week and reach the level of 110.016. Then there was a rebound, and the final chord sounded in the area of a strong medium-term support/resistance zone – at the level of 109.75;

– cryptocurrencies. - Bitcoin has had the best January in the past seven years. The value of the main coin has increased by about 30 percent. The volume of capitalization of the asset added about $39 billion. according to experts, the reason for this rise was the geopolitical situation. The approaching halving has also affected the value of Bitcoin. The last time Bitcoin showed such aggressive growth dynamics was in January 2013. Then the coin increased in value by about 54 percent. It is noteworthy that at that time the asset was also preparing for the halving.
Another reason pushing the BTC/USD pair up was the coronavirus. "Asian investors are increasingly buying cryptocurrency because of the situation with the coronavirus. Payments in dollars may be banned, so Bitcoin and other coins will be the only way out," Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, said on CNBC. Also, in his opinion, the price of Bitcoin is affected by the "black" market. Many companies from China have closed the export of goods, which is why the scale of smuggling paid for with cryptocurrency has increased significantly.
Whatever it was, the halving, along with the virus and the smugglers, have almost "pushed" Bitcoin quotes to the cherished bar of $10,000: on Thursday, February 06, fully justifying the forecasts of most experts, the cost of one coin reached the mark of $9,860.
Naturally, the growth of the leading cryptocurrency gave another impetus to the top altcoins. Ethereum (ETH/USD) reached $223.9, Litecoin (LTC/USD) – $75.30 and Ripple (XRP/USD) – $0.2800.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Over the past week, all most popular currency pairs have reached landmark levels: EUR/USD(1.1000), GBP/USD (1.3000) and USD/JPY (110), which makes the task of forecasting their further movement even more difficult, since these levels can act as both a very strong support and resistance.
At the time of writing this forecast (Saturday, February 08), the situation with indicators for the EUR/USD pair mirrors what we observed a week ago. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are now colored red. And the remaining 15% of the oscillators now signal the pair is oversold and a rebound up is expected.
60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will continue to fall, aiming to test the lows of November-October 2019 in the area of 1.0880. And if successful, it will open the way to the zone of 1.0500-1.0800, where it already visited in 2015-2017.
However, graphical analysis as a further perspective draws a rebound of the pair from the support of 1.0880 back up: first to the resistance of 1.1000, and then another 100 points higher. The majority (60%) of analysts agree that the pair will reach 1.1100 and 1.1200 again in the medium term.
As for the macroeconomic analysis, next week we will be covered by a whole wave of important events. Among them are the speech of the Fed Jerome Powell to the US Congress, the publication of statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the United States on 13 and 14 February, and the release of GDP data for Germany and Eurozone at the end of the week, on Friday 14 February;

- GBP/USD. On Tuesday, February 11, the data on the UK GDP for the 4th quarter of 2019 will also be available. It is expected that the increase will be zero, which may put additional pressure on the pound. It should be noted that the situation with Brexit and the monetary policy of the Bank of England makes the prospects for the British currency very vague. At least, now the experts' opinions are divided into three almost equal parts: 30% are for the growth, 30% are for the fall and 40% are for the sideways movement of the pair. In the medium term, the majority of analysts (65%) still hope for the successful promotion of the trade negotiations between Britain and the EU.
As for technical analysis, the situation repeats the situation with the EUR/USD: the indicators are colored red, and only 15% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone.
The pair finished the week at the level of1. 2880 ¬- in the Pivot Point zone, along which it rotated from the end of October to the beginning of December 2019. Therefore, the nearest borders of its fluctuations are the borders of the same last year's corridor -1.2800 and 1.3000. However, the fall of the pound over the past five days by as much as 320 points suggests that it may not stay in the specified channel. The next target for the bears is the 1.2400-1.2580 zone. If the trend turns up, we will see the pair in the 1.2975-1.3200 zone with a Pivot Point of 1.3100. Due to the increased volatility of the pair, it is not possible to give more accurate benchmarks (recall that in December 2019, it "flew" more than 600 points in just 10 days!);

- USD/JPY. Japan is the most energy-dependent country due to the lack of its own energy resources, especially now, when after blocking several nuclear power plants, it was necessary to significantly increase purchases of petroleum products. Therefore, a sharp increase in the price of this energy carrier always leads to a weakening of the Japanese currency.
Over the past week, the oil market has been experiencing increased volatility in anticipation of the OPEC + Committee's decision to reduce the oil production. As a result, it was decided to reduce its production by 600,000 barrels per day, which should stop the fall in the price of "black gold". The easing of China's trade policy should also support the oil market, in particular, Beijing's decision to reduce duties on US goods worth $75 billion. Most likely, all this affected the growth of the USD/JPY pair and the fall of the Japanese currency to 110 yen per dollar last week. 60% of experts expect that the pair will continue to grow further, which will be facilitated not only by the oil factor, but also by the improvement of the situation with the coronavirus.
However, we must not forget that since January 06, Brent oil futures have fallen by almost 21% – from $68.91 to $54.45, which gives reason to the remaining 40% of analysts to side with the Japanese currency.
The technical analysis situation here is as follows. On the H4 timeframe, 80% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators look up, while on D1, 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are green. So, there is a clear advantage of bullish sentiment.
Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a drop in the pair to the zone of 109.10-109.30, the following supports are 108.30 and 107.65. On D1, the picture is reversed: first, growth to the 110.80-111.30 level, and then to the 111.70 height. The nearest resistance is 1.2575.

– cryptocurrencies. So, the price of Bitcoin has updated the 3-month high. "Beware of a trend reversal!"- 20% of experts warns. Against the background of the coronavirus epidemic, relations between the US and China may stabilize, which will cause an increase in investor interest in fiat currencies. In this case, Bitcoin can sink a lot. Even without the coronavirus, these two industrial giants are moving step by step toward the end of the trade war. But how much will this affect the Bitcoin quotes?
80% of analysts believe that a particularly strong drawdown (below $9,100) should not be expected, and the pair will soon reach the $10,450 mark. And there's $12,300 just around the corner. Thomas Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts even greater growth. In his opinion, the average yield on Bitcoin in the next six months will reach 200%.
But, as often happens, when everyone looks up, the price goes down. Therefore, we strongly advise you not to forget about the 20% of specialists who call for extreme caution.
UserPostedImage



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 17 - 21, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Stop-loss orders on long positions for this pair are triggered one after another for the second week in a row. The bulls retreat, successively surrendering all their lines of defense. The pair has not just updated the lows of this and last years, it has reached the lowest values since May 2017. And the most interesting thing is that there is no one serious reason for such a collapse of the European currency. You can explain the collapse of the USD/CHF pair on "Black Thursday" in January 2015 or the fall of the pound following the referendum on the UK's exit from the EU. And here it seems that nothing extraordinary has happened.
Experts call a variety of possible reasons that in total could lead to the fact that the dollar has pushed the euro by 270 points over the past two weeks, and, practically, without corrections. Among them are the difference in the positions of the ECB and the Fed regarding the policy of easing (QE) and the value of interest rates, as well as concerns about a prolonged recession in the euro zone, caused by the gloomy macroeconomic indicators of the German and EU economies. Coronavirus did not have the last word, because, unlike the US, the European economy is more vulnerable to Chinese risks. Traditionally, the dollar has been supported by a series of government bond offerings by the US Treasury.
It is difficult to say which of these factors the experts surveyed had been guided by, but the forecast given by most of them was absolutely accurate. Recall that 60% of experts supported by graphical analysis on H4, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators were confident that the pair would continue to fall. The goal was to test the November-October 2019 lows around 1.0880. The test was successful, and the pair ended the five-day session at 1.0835;

- GBP/USD. The British currency seemed to set out to prove to the British that their country's exit from the EU was absolutely correct. While the former European "counterpart" of the pound, the euro, was continuously falling, the British, on the contrary, was growing all the past week, adding almost 200 points and reaching at maximum the height of 1.3070.
Initially, after the unexpected resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid, who disagreed with the personnel policy of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the pound went down, but very quickly it turned around after Rishi Sunak became the new Head of the UK Finance Ministry - an experienced financier and, concurrently, the son-in-law of a billionaire. Tax cuts and increased budget spending, of which Sunak is an apologist, can seriously fuel interest in the British currency.
The forecast given last week believed that in the event of an upward trend reversal, the pound would overcome the resistance of 1.2975 and possibly break through the upper limit of the 1.2800-1.3000 channel. This is what happened: the pair set the final chord at 1.3045;

- USD/JPY. It seems that the bulls can't take the 110.00 level. Not yet. The pair tried to gain a foothold above it in mid-January and tried again to do so in February. But again, to no avail. Even the strengthening of the dollar as a safe-haven currency did not help. Having barely reached the 110.13 mark in the middle of the week, the pair turned around and eventually finished at 109.77;

– cryptocurrencies. What is the best refuge from the economic turmoil caused by the coronavirus? Dollar? Yes, indeed, it shows convincing growth against the euro and a number of other currencies. But Bitcoin shows even more convincing growth against the dollar itself. Last week, 80% of analysts thought that the BTC/USD pair would reach $10.450. And this forecast was 99.99% correct: ¬ on Thursday, February 13, its quotes reached a height of $10.490. Thus, since the beginning of January, the cost of the main cryptocurrency has increased by more than 45%.
So, is Bitcoin the super safe haven?
However, as it turned out, there are even more attractive assets. The demand for Bitcoin has also pushed the demand for such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD), and others. And if before they followed in the wake of the reference cryptocurrency, now some of them have gone far ahead. For example, Ethereum has increased in price by 120% since the beginning of the year, but it has increased by 35% only in the last week.
This activity of alternative coins could not but affect the share of Bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market: if in early January it was 70%, today it has dropped to 62.4%. So the discussion about the best asset-haven is not over yet.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The calendar for the upcoming week is filled with information for fundamental analysis specialists. Although, as for the Eurozone, the forecasts do not promise anything good in advance. It is expected that the indicators of the indices that characterize the state of the business environment in Germany and the eurozone – ZEW on Tuesday, February 18 and Markit on February 21 – will be lower than the previous ones. The report on the ECB meeting on February 20 may add to the pessimism. All this can lead to further losses of the euro against the US dollar. Positive news from the front of the fight against coronavirus will be able to turn the trend up, but it is still difficult to predict anything here.
100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are colored red. 65% of oscillators look down as well. The targets are 1.0700 and 1.0525; However, the remaining 35% of the oscillators are already in the oversold zone, which is a very strong signal for a possible upward trend reversal. Or, at least, for a serious correction, which, according to the indications of the graphical analysis on H4, can return the pair to the 1.0900 zone, and, perhaps, bring it closer to the 1.1000 mark.
At the moment, only 40% of experts vote for the pair's growth, however, when switching to the monthly forecast, their number increases to 65%;
UserPostedImage


- GBP/USD. It is possible that in addition to the resignation of Chancellor Sajid Javid, the UK is able to present other surprises in these difficult times. As they say about Brexit, the farther into the forest, the thicker the trees. For now, the picture looks like this. Trend indicators on H4 indicate: up 95%, down 5%, on D1 up 75%, down 25%. Oscillators: on H4, 90% is green, 10% is overbought, and on D1, it is a complete mess. Analysts do not have any clear point of view, although, when moving to the medium-term forecast, most of them (65%) side with the bulls. The nearest bullish target is 1.3200, the resistance levels are 1.3070, 1.3115 and 1.3160. Supports: 1.3000, 1.2970, 1.2940 and 1.2880;

- USD/JPY. After the week-long sideways trend of this pair, there is complete discord among the indicators. As for experts, 70% of them, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, look to the north. According to their scenario, the pair should eventually overcome the resistance of 110.00 and rise another 80-100 points higher. The remaining 30% of analysts remain pessimistic. In their opinion, the decline in the stock market and the yield of government bonds may lead to a fall in the pair to the zone of 109.10-109.30, following supports are 108.30 and 107.65.

– cryptocurrencies. The forecasts of the crypto market gurus are, as usual, overflowing with enthusiasm. The Bitcoin exchange rate will rise to $40,000 within the year, said co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee in an interview with CNBC. He attributed the halving, the coronavirus outbreak, the geopolitical instability, and overcoming the 200-day moving average to the reasons for the cryptocurrency's rise in price. According to Lee, the White House deliberately interfered with the rally of the first cryptocurrency last year. But now the US government is distracted by the election of the new President and will not be able to organize a campaign against Bitcoin.
Anthony Pompliano, partner of Morgan Creek Digital investment company, predicts further growth of the main cryptocurrency as well. He is confident that the explosive growth of the Bitcoin exchange rate will occur due to the growing demand for the asset and its limited issue, resulting in it reaching $100,000 by the end of 2021.
In general, 60% of analysts expect that the BTC/USD pair will break the $11,000 mark in February-March. However, while last week it was only 20% of experts who exclaimed: "Beware of a trend reversal!", now their number has doubled, reaching 40%. Some crypto traders believe that the growth in the value of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which began in January, is caused by "ghost money". As they say, on certain trading platforms, large orders appear periodically, which are not intended to buy or sell cryptocurrency, but to create the illusion of a demand for the asset. Someone provokes investors to purchase the coin with their help, thereby inflating its price. "You can only push the price so high with the help of "ghost money". At some point, people will want to cash out their crazy earnings, but will not be able to find someone to sell the asset to. This is going to be a show!"- one of the crypto sceptics wrote on Twitter.
And in this situation, the brokerage company NordFX offers probably the best option for trading cryptocurrencies – a kind of contract for the difference in price, without the actual delivery of coins. In this case, when opening long or short positions, you can be sure that even if the price of Bitcoin soars to the skies or, conversely, collapses to zero, you will get your due profit.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Stan NordFX
  • Posts: 136
  • Joined: 04/03/2018
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 24 - 28, 2020



First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar index has already gained 2.5% since the beginning of February, reaching the highest since May 2017. The euro continues to lose ground. Beginning on January 01, the advance of the dollar has weakened the European currency by 440 points. It has lost almost 300 points, or 2.7%, in the last three weeks of continuous decline alone.
Experts have managed to put forward many reasons for what is going on during this time, most often referring to fears about the coronavirus. But even here, when they talk about the same thing, they manage to draw opposite conclusions. As a result, some attribute the dollar to safe-haven currencies, while others, on the contrary, consider it a rather risky asset that will bring losses to investors as soon as the peak of the epidemic is passed and the Chinese economy begins to recover. It is quite possible that this will start to take place in the near future, since the Chinese leadership is applying efforts not only to fight the epidemic, but also to stimulate production and ease the monetary policy. One of these measures was the reduction by the People's Bank of China of the interest rate on the yuan from 4.15% to 4.05% on Thursday, February 20.
We cannot but agree with those experts who believe that the catalyst for the fall of the EUR/USD pair is the weakness of the European economy in the first place and ultra-low interest rates, which make the dollar much more attractive to investors. In addition, the truce in the trade war between the US and China also plays against the Euro.
The majority of analysts (60%) had voted for a further fall in the euro last week, supported by 100% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators. At the same time, the remaining 35% had already been giving signals the European currency was oversold. If you look at the EUR/USD quotes, they accurately reflect this distribution of forces. At first, the pair went down, and then, starting from the midweek, it moved into a sideways trend, turning the 1.0800 horizon into either support or resistance. The divergence with the readings of many oscillators, such as the MACD, gave long position holders hope for a trend reversal. However, this did not happen, the fall only stopped. And only at the very end of the five-day period, the pair made a sharp jump up, finishing at 1.0848 and thus zeroing out the total result of the week;

- GBP/USD. The UK contributed to the weakening of the EU economy as well: after Brexit, the European Union budget has a deficit of €75 billion, and no one seems to know how to make up for such a serious loss. The British currency itself, unlike the euro, can be said to have stabilized against the dollar and, since the last decade of November 2019, has been moving along the 1.3000 line. The volatility is still quite high (220 points last week), but the pair repeatedly returns to this support/resistance zone.
The bears repeatedly tried to push the British defense in February, lowering the pound below the 1.3000 horizon. The pair even reached the local bottom at 1.2850 last week, but... then it turned around again, rushed up and finished the working week at 1.2960;

- USD/JPY. Giving the forecast for the past week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, had turned their views to the north. And they turned out to be right: the pair not only broke the landmark level of 110.00, but even without noticing several levels of resistance, soared to the height of 112.20, reaching the highs of April 2019. The main reason is called a sharp drop in interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency, against the background of an improvement in the situation with the coronavirus and, as a result, a turn of the markets towards riskier assets. The actions of the Chinese authorities to support companies affected by the epidemic also played against the yen.
After the pair took the height of 112.00, a correction occurred, and the final chord of the week sounded at the level of 111.60;

– cryptocurrencies. Longhash company has analyzed in detail the data on buying and selling bitcoins over the past two years and has made interesting conclusions. So, the researchers have found that the lowest average price of Bitcoin is observed on Fridays at 6 am GMT. In fact, this means the best time to open long positions. At midnight united time (UTC) on Mondays and Tuesdays, the price of BTC is on average $170 higher than on Fridays. It turns out that Monday or Tuesday is the best time to exit the Friday long or enter a short position until the next Friday (when the price is lower according to statistics).
At the same time, analysts warn that the crypto market is very volatile, so it is unlikely that the results of such a study should be considered investment advice.
And this is a very correct remark, especially if you look at the results of the past week. The price of Bitcoin was really low in the morning of Friday, February 14. And if a trader opened a long position at this point, he or she would have received a good profit by the end of the day. But if they left the position open until Monday, February 17, they would lose a tidy sum, since Bitcoin had fallen by about $600 during this time.
The main cryptocurrency has tried several times to gain a foothold above $10,000 over the past seven days, but to no success. The local bottom of the BTC/USD pair was fixed at $9.290, and among the reasons for this decline are, primarily, the tightening of pressure on Bitcoin by the US authorities, including President Trump, Fed chief Powell and Finance Minister Mnuchin.
It goes without saying that when going down, the main cryptocurrency pulled the top altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rolled back from the state of "greed" to the state of "fear".


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Global markets are saturated with liquidity, including major currencies. It seems that Central banks know no other way to support the economy than to pump it with cheap money. The US Federal reserve spends $ 60 billion a month to buy bills, the ECB buys securities for 20 billion euros, and the Bank of Japan – for 80 trillion yen. Regulators in other countries are not far behind. And, at the moment when this money appears on the markets, we can observe fluctuations in prices in one direction or another.
The dollar today is a cross between a classic protective and a risky asset. This is due to political factors, the state of the US economy, and the actions of the Federal reserve, whose ability to reduce interest rates is far from exhausted, in contrast to its European and Japanese "counterparts".
All this allows 70% of analysts to count on the continued growth of the US currency and its reduction at least to the zone of 1.0750. It should be noted that the survey was conducted before the pair's short-term rally to the north on Friday just before the markets closed. It is also important that when moving to the forecast for March, the same number – 70% – of experts expect the pair to return to the level of 1.1000.
As for the indicators, if the vast majority of them were painted red in the morning of Friday, February 21, the situation changed radically by the evening and 70% acquired a green color on H4. On D1, however, the advantage still remains with the the bears: 75% of trend indicators and oscillators still point to the south. Nearest supports are 1.0800 and 1.0775;

- GBP/USD. The Pivot Point of the last three months can be considered the 1.3000 horizon, but starting from January 2020, there has been a certain increase in the bearish sentiment. That is why 55% of experts expect that the pair will once again test the previous week's low of 1.2850 and, if successful, will fall another 80-100 points lower. The remaining 45% of experts are expecting the pound to strengthen and the pair to rise to the 1.3000-1.3070 zone. The next target is 1.3120.
There is a complete discord among the indicators on D1 at the end of the week, but on H4, 60% of trend indicators and oscillators indicate the growth of the pair.
The compromise option is offered by graphical analysis on D1, which draws a decline at the end of February to the level of 1.2685, and then a return in the first decade of March, first to the level of 1.3000, and then to the height of 1.3200;
UserPostedImage


- USD/JPY. It is clear that the vast majority of indicators look up. However, about 15% of oscillators are already sending signals about the pair being overbought. Graphical analysis on D1 shows that the pair will stay in the range 111.25-112.00 for some time at the beginning of the week, after which it will go up to the zone 112.40-112.70.
As for experts, 75% believe that the pair will definitely return to the 109.65-110.25 zone, although this may take two to three weeks. The remaining 25% of analysts are expecting the pair to rise above the 112.40 mark, the target is 113.70;

– cryptocurrencies. The founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, is convinced that Bitcoin will be firmly fixed at the historical high of $20,000 by the end of 2020. According to the expert, Bitcoin is unstable right now, but it will definitely break the historical high of $20,000 by the end of the year, or at least reach it. This could happen sooner, in a couple of months, thanks to the halving. The emergence of regulated crypto exchanges and the adoption of the asset by conservative institutional investors will also serve as a positive factor for the growth of the first cryptocurrency. In addition, the continued issue of fiat currencies can also play into the hands of Bitcoin. "The main digital asset, just like gold, acts as a hedge asset, protecting investors from inflation and state monetary policy, leading to the depreciation of money," Novograts explained.
An even happier future for Bitcoin is predicted by well-known Bitcoin enthusiast TV host Max Kaiser. He raised his forecast for the price of this cryptocurrency to $400,000 per coin, increasing it by four times at once. Participating in the Infowars news show, Kaiser said that his previous prediction in 2012 of $100,000 is now too conservative.
In general, 70% of experts remain optimistic, expecting to see Bitcoin in the $10,500-11,000 zone within the next few weeks. The remaining 30% of experts call the level of $8,000 as the lower bar for the fall of the BTC/USD pair.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin
Users browsing this topic
    Forum Jump  
    • You cannot post new topics in this forum.
    • You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
    • You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
    • You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
    • You cannot create polls in this forum.
    • You cannot vote in polls in this forum.