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KostiaForexMart
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Major altcoins suffer losses​​​​​​​

On Thursday, bitcoin dived to $28,900 and eventually closed at $29,117. At the time of writing on Friday, BTC fell to $28,982.

Since Monday, bitcoin has tried to break out of the 7-week long downtrend, but remained near the $30,000 mark. The leading cryptocurrency lost about 60% since it surpassed $69,000 and reached an all-time high in November 2021.

Crypto market lossesOver the past 24 hours, BTC lost about 2%. Howevre, major altcoins suffered more severe losses. STEPN's native token nosedived by 37.9% after its developer halted its services in China due to a demand from local authorities. STEPN is a move-to-earn lifestyle app which uses GPS and allows users to earn rewards in crypto by running, walking, or jogging outside. The company will stop providing GPS services to users in mainland China from July 15.

Solana fell by 7.15% to $45. The altcoin lost more than 17% last week. Among other cryptocurrencies, Ethereum decreased by 6.16% to $1,847, BNB slumped by 5.03% to $311.86, Cardano declined by 4.59% to $0.487, and Dogecoin slid down by 4.83% to $0.0791. The best performing cryptocurrency was Chain, which jumped by 46.6% on Thursday.

According to CoinGecko, the market cap of the cryptocurrency market decreased by 3.22% to $1.22 trillion yesterday. The Bitcoin Dominance Index reached 45.74%.

Lengthy crypto downtren

Since the beginning of 2022, the digital assets market dropped sharply as investors shifted away from risky assets. BTC lost about 37% since January, while Ethereum dived by 48%. The market cap of the cryptomarket declined to $1.3 trillion from $3 trillion in November 2021.

The war in Ukraine and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe have pushed the crypto market downwards.

Another bearish factor for crypto is the growing dominance of the United States in the digital assets market, reflecting the currency war between the US and China, which began in 2014. The US crypto dominance was reinforced by China's crypto ban in 2021

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also pushing the crypto market downwards. According to crypto market analysts, the Fed's interest rate hike has contributed to the downtrend. Investors are concerned that rising inflation would force the regulator to increase interest rates even higher in the future.

Earlier, Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated that the US central bank plans to act decisively to bring inflation back to the target level of 2%, despite short term recession risks.

In May, the Federal Reserve increased the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75-1%. The US regulator hiked the rate by 25 basis points at its March meeting. It was the first back-to-back rate rise by the Fed since 2006 and the first 50 basis points increase since 2000

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Despite bitcoin's woes, JP Morgan strategists estimated BTC's fair value at $38,000, which is 30% higher than its current price of about $29,000. Furthermore, JPMorgan classified digital assets and hedge funds as its "preferred" alternative asset classes.

The bank's strategists also stated that BTC and digital assets have great upside potential after its recent fall.

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KostiaForexMart
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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 30/05/2022​​​​​​​

Although the single European currency demonstrated good activity on Friday, showing a movement of fifty points, first up, then down, in fact, it was a stagnation. Which, in general, is not surprising, given that macroeconomic data was not published. And there were no serious news reports that could somehow affect the market either. The beginning of the new trading week will be much less active. And it's not just a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. After all, it is a holiday in the United States to honor Memorial Day. And in the absence of American traders, activity in the market is coming to naught. Like it or not, American investors control most of the capital circulating in financial markets. So the stagnation will become more pronounced, and the magnitude of the movement will be noticeably smaller than on Friday.

The EURUSD currency pair, despite the scale of the correction, adheres to an upward move. During this time, the euro exchange rate has strengthened by more than 400 points, which is considered a strong price change.

The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving in the upper area of the 50/70 indicator, which indicates an upward interest among traders. RSI D1 settled above the 50 line, this is a signal of an elongated correction.

Alligator H4 is signaling an upward trend, MA moving lines are directed upwards. The Alligator D1 indicator has changed direction from a downward cycle to an upward one. The moving MA lines are directed upwards.

Expectations and prospects:

There is a resistance area of 1.0800/1.0850 on the way, which can hold back the bulls. For this reason, the tactic of working on the rebound is considered as the most optimal strategy. In the future, this may lead to the completion of the corrective move.

An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price stays above 1.1850 in the daily period.

Complex indicator analysis has a buy signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the correction. In the medium term, indicators changed to buy indicators due to a protracted correction.
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KostiaForexMart
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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on May 31, 2022

Economic calendar for May 31

Today, traders are focused on the preliminary assessment of inflation in Europe. It is predicted that the consumer price index will continue to grow from 7.4% to 7.7%, which is a negative factor for the EU economy. Further inflation growth may stimulate the ECB to more aggressive tactics of tightening monetary policy. In simple words, the regulator may still move to an interest rate hike based on the growth of inflation. Thus, based on the logic of the ECB's further steps, this news may lead to an increase in the value of the euro in the medium term.

A short-term reaction to rising inflation could lead to a weakening of the euro.

Time targeting

EU Inflation - 09:00 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 31

The area of resistance 1.0800/1.0850 is still putting pressure on buyers, which may lead to the completion of the corrective movement. If expectations are confirmed, the euro rate may return to the value of 1.0636.

An alternative scenario considers the prolongation of the correction. This signal will be relevant only if the price holds above 1.0850 in the daily period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 31

In this situation, special attention is paid to the stage of stagnation within the amplitude of 1.2600/1.2700. This fluctuation may indicate the process of accumulation of trade forces, which will eventually lead to a local acceleration. Based on the assumption, the best trading tactic is the method of breaking through one or another stagnation border with confirmation in a four-hour period.

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KostiaForexMart
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Oil holds steady in positive territory for six straight months and extends its rally into summer​​​​​​​

On Wednesday, global oil prices are steadily increasing after a short decline a day earlier. The fall in oil prices on Tuesday was caused by speculations that some producers want to suspend Russia's participation in the OPEC+ production deal, as well as by new sanctions against Russia.

At the moment of writing, August Brent oil futures have gained 0.36% and are now hovering near $116.02 per barrel. A day earlier, Brent lost 1.7% and declined to $115.60 per barrel.

WTI oil futures for July rose by 0.44% to $115.17 per barrel on Wednesday. Yesterday, the futures contracts fell by 0.35% to $114.67 per barrel.

So, on Tuesday, oil depreciated by about 2% after a report that some OPEC members are exploring the idea of suspending Russia's participation in the deal over the conflict in Ukraine. The key factors in this case are the Western sanctions imposed on Russia and the partial embargo on Russian crude imports. This step will notably limit Russia's ability to ramp up oil production. The next OPEC+ meeting will take place on June 2, 2022.

In 2021, Russia, one of the world's top three crude producers, made a deal with OPEC and 9 other non-OPEC members to gradually increase output every month. Yet, amid anti-Russian sanctions, analysts predict an 8% drop in oil production.

Oil quotes were steadily rising until the news about Russia's possible suspension appeared in the media. In the early trade on Tuesday, Brent futures for July jumped above $124 per barrel for the first time since March 9.

Experts suggest that if the cancellation of Russia's membership is confirmed, the price of oil may drop to $100.

Today, markets are focused on supply prospects amid a ban on Russian oil imports to the EU. On May 31, the EU members agreed on the sixth package of sanctions which includes a partial embargo on oil and petroleum products imported by sea.

The sanctions ban local companies from providing insurance to Russian oil tankers. This means that from now on, Russia is isolated from the largest export market.

Restrictions will deal a heavy blow to oil deliveries to Asia which may disrupt Russia's plan to refocus on exports to China and India.

This ban can seriously hit the economy of Russia as the majority of European companies will refuse to transport oil without insurance. The effectiveness of this restriction was previously tested on Iran and proved to be successful.

Many European countries involved in shipping have already expressed concern about the ban on insurance for Russian oil tankers. So, the EU decided to implement it gradually within the next six months.

The official statement about the new restrictive measures against Moscow is expected in the coming days.

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KostiaForexMart
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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 2, 2022

Economic calendar for June 2

Today is a holiday in the UK, but this will not cause a decrease in volatility in financial markets. The focus will be on the ADP report on employment in the United States, which is predicted to grow by 295,000 in May. This is a positive signal for the labor market if the data is confirmed.

Almost simultaneously with the report, ADP will publish weekly data on jobless claims in the US, where they predict a reduction in their volume. This is a positive factor for the US labor market.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.346 million to 1.308 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits may remain at the level of 210,000.

Time targeting

ADP report - 12:15 UTC

US Jobless Claims - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 2

In order to confirm the signal to sell the euro, the quote needs to stay below the level of 1.0636 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, traders will have high chances of moving towards the values of 1.0570–1.0500.

Otherwise, the market may experience another stagnation with a local pullback relative to the pivot point.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 2

A stable holding of the price below the level of 1.2500 may lead to a subsequent decline towards the value of 1.2350. This move will indicate a gradual process of recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent correction.

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KostiaForexMart
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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 3, 2022

Economic calendar for June 3

Retail sales data in the euro area is expected for publication today. Forecasts assumed growth in figures, which may provide local support for the euro before the American trading session.

The main macroeconomic event of the outgoing week is considered to be the report of the United States Department of Labor, which predicts by no means bad indicators. The unemployment rate could drop from 3.6% to 3.5%, and 325,000 new jobs could be created outside of agriculture. We have a strong US labor market, which could support the US dollar.

Time targeting

EU retail sales - 09:00 UTC

US Department of Labor Report - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 3

Based on the recent price change, we can assume that the market has a local signal that the euro is overbought in the short term. This can lead to a slowdown in the upward cycle followed by a rebound. The price area of 1.0770/1.0800 is considered as resistance on the way of buyers.

The scenario of the prolongation of the corrective move will be considered by traders if the price stays above 1.0850 for at least a four-hour period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 3

In this situation, traders consider two possible scenarios at once:

The first one comes from the preservation of rising interest in the market, where holding the price above 1.2600 can return the quote to the resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720.

The second scenario considers the possibility of completing a corrective move, where holding the price below 1.2530 will lead to another attempt to break through the support level of 1.2500. The largest increase in the volume of short positions will occur after the price holds below 1.2450, which will confirm the signal about the completion of the correction.

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KostiaForexMart
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Most of the Asian indices gain 0.67–2.2%​​​​​​​

Most of the Asian indices gained between 0.67 and 2.2%. Thus, the Chinese and Hong Kong indices showed the biggest increases. Shanghai Composite added 1.05%, Shenzhen Composite increased by 2.21%, and Hang Seng Index surged by 1.37%. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.67% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.32%. South Korean stock exchanges are not working today. However, the Korean KOSPI ended last week in a positive area with an increase of 0.44%.

The main reason for investors' optimism was strong statistical data from China. Thus, the index of business activity in the service sector last month rose to 41.4 points from April's mark of 36.2 points. At the same time, the value of this indicator is still below the 50-point mark, indicating a decline in business activity.

The gradual lifting of restrictive measures in the capital and other major cities of China, caused by the new wave of COVID-19, is also encouraging.

Wuxi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. gained 9.7%, Meituan added 8.3%, and Anta Sports Products, Ltd. soared by 5.5%. Quotes of BYD Co., Ltd. rose slightly less by 5.2%, and Alibaba Group Holding, Ltd. climbed by 2%.

In Japan, the country's central bank reports the intention to continue the soft monetary policy. According to the management of the regulator, at this stage, the rise in prices in the country is caused by individual factors, such as an increase in the cost of energy. The authorities believe that stimulus measures will lead to an increase in wages, and inflation will become more stable.

Among the companies included in the Nikkei 225 indicator, the shares of Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. gained 6.4%, Hitachi Zosen Corp. grew by 5.5%, and Idemitsu Kosan Co, Ltd. soared by 5%. Slightly less growth was shown by Fast Retailing securities, which gained 2.5%.

At the same time, SoftBank Group stock decreased by 0.4%, and Sony dropped by 9%.

The capitalization of the largest Australian companies decreased. BHP lost 0.9%, and Rio Tinto dropped by 0.2%.

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KostiaForexMart
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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 07/06/2022

Even before the opening of the US trading session, the dollar began to steadily strengthen its positions, which is quite strange. After all, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty. Basically, just like today. In addition, there was also nothing in the news background that could somehow affect the development of events. It turns out that what happened most likely lies in the plane of technical factors. Which in general is not surprising, since amid the absence of obvious fundamental factors, the market is switching to technical ones. Also, such a situation may hint at the lack of market participants' faith in the prospects of Europe as a whole. After all, representatives of the European Central Bank are already directly talking about the imminent increase in the refinancing rate, which should be the first since 2011, and which should contribute to the strengthening of the euro.

However, the general state of the European economy, along with the increasing risks of energy shortages, which are most acute in front of the eurozone, cause more and more concerns. What is the trip of Olaf Scholz to Africa worth, in order to find alternative sources of supply, after the European Union's decision to abandon Russian energy carriers. It is quite obvious that even if Europe can find a replacement for Russian oil and gas, it will cost much more. And this is despite the fact that inflation is not even slowing down, and fuel prices are higher than ever before. In such circumstances, it is difficult to feel a sense of optimism about the European economy.

Since the beginning of June, the GBPUSD currency pair has been stubbornly trying to change the trading interest from an upward cycle to a downward one. This is indicated by the price consistently reaching the support area of 1.2450/1.2500.

The RSI H4 technical instrument is moving to the lower area of the 30/50 indicator, which indicates traders' prevailing interest in short positions. RSI D1 is moving within the deviation of the 50 middle line, which indicates a slowdown in the corrective move.

The moving MA lines on the Alligator H4 are directed downwards. This is a signal to sell the pound. Alligator D1 has interlacing between the MA lines, which indicates a slowdown in the upward cycle.

On the trading chart of the daily period, there is a corrective move from the pivot point of 1.2155, which fits into the clock component of the downward trend. The resistance area of 1.2670/1.2720 is on the correction path as resistance.

Expectations and prospects

We can assume that the long absence of updating the local high indicates the completion of the corrective move. The main signal to sell the pound is when the price stands firm below 1.2450 for at least a four-hour period. In this case, we will see a gradual recovery of dollar positions.

A complex indicator analysis has a sell signal in the short-term and intraday periods due to the price movement within the support area. Indicators in the medium term have a variable signal due to the slowdown in the corrective move.

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KostiaForexMart
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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 10, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from June 9

The European Central Bank (ECB) expectedly kept the base interest rate at the same level. The ECB also said that it intends to raise the rate in July. This became the main topic during the meeting as this will be the first time the regulator will raise the rate since 2011. It is expected that the regulator will raise the rate by 0.25%.

The market reaction to this announcement was not so rosy. Perhaps investors were expecting a stronger rate hike.

The main theses of the ECB:

The ECB, as expected, kept the base rate at zero, and the deposit rate at minus 0.5%.

The ECB will end the asset purchase programme (APP) on 1 July.

The ECB intends to raise its base rate by 0.25% in July.

The ECB forecasts eurozone GDP growth of 2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

The ECB intends to gradually raise the base rate after September.

The ECB forecasts eurozone inflation at 6.8% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024.

The ECB plans a second rate hike in September, the pace of its rise will depend on inflation.

At the same time as the press conference, data on jobless claims in the United States was released which recorded an increase in the overall rate.

This is a negative factor for the US labor market, but in connection with the comments of the ECB that coincided at that time, the dollar did not react in any way to the negative on the applications.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits decreased slightly from 1.309 million to 1.306 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits increased from 202,000 to 229,000.

Analysis of trading charts from June 9

The EURUSD currency pair has covered more than 120 points during an intense downward momentum. This movement led to the breakdown of the lower border of the side channel 1.0636/1.0800. Based on the behavior of the price, we can state the fact of speculation in this period of time.

The GBPUSD currency pair rushed down through a positive correlation with the European currency. This led to another convergence of the price with the lower border of the side channel 1.2450/1.2500.

Economic calendar for June 10

Today, the focus will be on inflation data in the United States, where it is predicted that the consumer price index will remain at the same level—8.3%. In some ways, this is a positive signal that indicates a slowdown in the rate of inflation. The US dollar is likely to receive a local incentive to strengthen.

Time targeting

Inflation in the USA - 12:30 UTC

Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 10

The technical pullback is still relevant in the market due to the local overheating of short positions in the euro. This movement can temporarily return the quote to the boundaries of the previously passed flat.

The next downward movement is expected in the market after holding the price below 1.0600. This move will lead to a gradual recovery of dollar positions relative to the recent corrective move.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 10

The price movement within the flat is still relevant in the market, so another price rebound from its lower border cannot be ruled out. As the main strategy, traders consider the tactics of breaking through one or another frame of the established range.

Trading recommendations are based on the breakdown tactics:

Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.2600 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2660-1.2720.

Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.2450 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2350-1.230.

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KostiaForexMart
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Trading Signal for GOLD (XAU/USD) on June 14-15, 2022: buy above $1,812 (2/8 Murray - oversold)​​​​​​​

XAU/USD came under bearish pressure after falling below the 200 EMA (1,849) and ended the American session reaching a low of 1808.93

In less than 24 hours from the high of 1878.74 to the low of 1808.93, gold fell by approximately $70. This is a sign that risk aversion is increasing and investors will continue to take refuge in the US dollar.

Investors are worried that the Fed may hike the interest rate by 0.75%. As a result, the stock markets declined along with gold and cryptocurrencies.

A technical rebound is expected in the next few hours as gold is in an oversold zone. However, as long as it fails to consolidate above the 200 EMA located at 1,849, it will only be a pullback to resume the downtrend correction.

In the early Asian session, XAU/USD is trading at 1,824 and after having found a strong bounce above 2/8 Murray. The technical bounce is likely to continue in the next few hours and may reach the 21 SMA around 1,838.

In case of a test of the level of 2/8 Murray, gold is likely to return to the zone of 1,812. We should wait for a consolidation above this level to buy with targets at 1,830, and 1,838. It could reach the 200 EMA at 1,849.

In the Asian session, the eagle indicator touched the oversold zone. It means that a technical rebound will occur in the next few hours. it may be an opportunity to buy above 1,812.

On the contrary, if gold resumes its downtrend and trades below 1,812 it could continue its downward movement and could reach the psychological level of 1,800 and the low of May 16 at 1786.70

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold at current price levels around 1,824 or in case of a bounce at 1,812 to buy with targets at 1,838 and 1,849.

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KostiaForexMart
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Storm warning for USD/JPY

USD/JPY went on a rollercoaster ride yesterday after the US Federal Reserve raised rates by 75bp. Don't loosen your belts as more course turbulence is expected in the coming days

The US central bank's decision did not come as a surprise to the markets.

The latest jump in the US consumer price index to 8.6% made it clear that the Fed intends to tighten its grip.

As predicted, at Wednesday's meeting the central bank raised interest rates by 75 bp.

The fact that the Fed went for the biggest increase in the rate since 1994 sent the dollar skyrocketing in almost every direction.

However, a little later on the charts, the opposite situation was already observed. The greenback dipped just as steeply as investors weighed in on the US central bank's rate plans.

Politicians lowered inflation expectations for both the current year and 2023, and also hinted at the next rate hike by either 50 bp or 75 bp.

The Fed's rejection of the possibility of a 100 bp rate hike literally plunged the dollar. The USD/JPY fell to 133.75, after hitting a new 24-year high of 135.50 in previous deals.

This morning, the yen turned around again and took the already familiar downward route. The Japanese currency returned to the lowest level since 1998 at 135.

Meanwhile, currency strategists note that in the short term the dollar-yen pair will remain highly volatile, and warn of even greater exchange rate turbulence.

Ahead and after the 2-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will be held on June 16-17, the range of fluctuations of the USD/JPY pair may be at least 7 points.

According to experts, during this period, the yen will trade from 131.05 to 138.08 per dollar. Thus, its weekly volatility will approach the highest level since 2020.

The jumps in the rate will be due to the ambiguous expectations of the market regarding the further policy of the Japanese central bank. As you know, BOJ stands out among its colleagues with its ardent commitment to a soft monetary rate.

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to insist that it is too early to cut stimulus and raise rates, because inflation in the country remains relatively moderate.

In April, consumer prices in Japan exceeded the BOJ target of 2% for the first time in seven years and reached 2.1% year on year.

Nevertheless, in the future, Kuroda does not expect a significant increase in inflation. And until recently, this confidence has helped him stick to a dovish line, despite the global tightening trend.

However, can the head of the BOJ continue in the same vein amid the ongoing depreciation of the yen?

The decline in the Japanese currency has already significantly worsened the position of the world's third largest economy and overshadowed its prospects.

This morning, the Japanese government announced that in May the country faced the largest increase in the trade deficit in eight years.

Imports rose 48.9% year-on-year last month, outpacing exports by 15.8%, according to Japan's Ministry of Finance data. This resulted in a trade deficit of 2.385 trillion yen ($17.80 billion).

The trade balance with a negative balance testifies to the widespread consumption of foreign goods, the value of which continues to rise steadily.

This exacerbates the already sad situation of Japanese consumers, suffering from rising energy and food prices. Therefore, it is possible that Kuroda may change his mind dramatically and throw out a surprise tomorrow.

Given his behavior in the past, this is quite likely. As a reminder, before settling on the current policy, which is known as yield curve control, in 2016 the official shocked the markets with an unexpected move to negative interest rates.

Some analysts do not rule out the BOJ's surrender in the near future. If Kuroda gives even the slightest hint that he intends to reduce his asset purchases or raise rates, this will further increase the volatility of the market.

In this case, we should expect a big sale of Japanese bonds, a sharp increase in their yield and, as a result, an increase in demand for the yen.

According to experts, a change in the yield curve control policy could lead to a fall in the USD/JPY pair by 3-4% from the current level.

And if Kuroda declares on Friday that he remains true to his position, we will be able to see the continuation of the rally of this currency pair.

Analysts at Credit Suisse expect the greenback to rise to 142 against the yen.
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KostiaForexMart
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The steep rise of the franc and the crushing fall of the yen

Yesterday, Switzerland made a knight's move, unexpectedly raising rates by 50 bps. Against this background, expectations of the Bank of Japan's capitulation sharply increased. But the BOJ still decided to stand on its own.

In the outgoing week, two major central banks, whose monetary policy remained super-soft in the face of total tightening, decided to go their separate ways.

On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank made a shocking decision to raise interest rates. And this morning, the BOJ finally dispelled rumors about a possible rise in the indicator.

Franc rejoices: SNB takes a hawkish a path
Yesterday's decision by the Swiss central bank on interest rates produced a bombshell effect on the markets.

Of course, many expected that the SNB could decide to increase the indicator in conditions of increased inflation. But did anyone think that it could literally turn from a quiet dove into an aggressive hawk overnight?

The Swiss bank immediately raised the rate by half a percentage point, to 0.25%. The central bank has tightened its monetary policy for the first time in 15 years, hoping to contain inflation, which threatens to get out of control.

Currently, inflation in the country is 2.4% and, according to SNB forecasts, may reach 2.8% by the end of the year. This is significantly higher than the agency's target range of 2%.

The shocking rise in the rate by 50 bps provoked the sharpest growth of the franc in the last seven years. The Swiss currency has risen by almost 3% against the dollar.

The franc also strengthened significantly against the euro. The single currency dropped to 1.0131, showing the strongest drop since June 2016. Recall that the results of the Brexit referendum were published then.

Now analysts expect a further rise of the Swiss currency against the dollar and the franc reaching parity with the euro, as the SNB said that further tightening may be required to combat inflation.

The yen is stormy: BOJ chooses a dovish route
Interestingly, the rise in rates in Switzerland not only triggered the franc rally, but also gave a short-term boost to the yen.

Yesterday, the Japanese currency rose more than 1% against the dollar and reached a 2-week high. The increased threat of a global recession partially contributed to the strengthening of the protective asset.

Investors fear that a series of rate hikes, which this week has been remembered for, will provoke a slowdown in global economic growth.

Recall that on Wednesday the Fed raised rates by 75 bps, and on Thursday the Bank of England (by 25 bps) and the SNB (by 50 bps) reported an increase in the indicator.

The most unexpected, as we have already noted above, was the decision of the Swiss central bank. After the surprise it presented, speculation increased significantly that the BOJ would go the same way.

However, this did not happen. On Friday morning, the BOJ announced that it continues easing monetary policy and keeps interest rate targets unchanged.

This choice left the BOJ completely alone. While other major central banks are tightening their policies to curb rising inflation, the Japanese central bank decides to focus on supporting the economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The market's reaction to the BOJ's dovish tactics is absolutely logical. Today, the yen is falling as rapidly as it rose yesterday.

At the time of preparation of the material, the yen plunged by almost 1% against the dollar and was trading again at a 24-year low of 134.

Experts predict that in the near future we will see a further depreciation of the yen, which may cause even more damage to the economy, which is heavily dependent on imports of fuel and raw materials.The fact that uncertainty about the Japanese economy is extremely high is also stated in today's BOJ statement. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the regulator decides to turn off the beaten track at its next meeting...
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KostiaForexMart
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AUD skyrockets post-RBA Minutes​​​​​​​

Two weeks ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly lifted interest rates by 50 basis points. AUD/USD soared after the announcement. No wonder, the Minutes of the meeting triggered a similar reaction.

The Aussie dollar went up even before the release of the RBA Minutes. Yesterday, the currency strengthened by 0.3% to 0.69675 versus the US dollar on hawkish expectations.

According to the June report published on Tuesday, the central bank considered a 0.25% or 0.5% rate hike. RBA policymakers voted in favor of the latter one to curb inflation faster.

AUD/USD extended gains following RBA Governor Philip Lowe's hawkish comments.

The RBA chief saw inflation at 7% by the end of the year, well above the long-term target rate. He reaffirmed further monetary tightening due to growing inflationary pressure.

"As we chart our way back to 2% to 3% inflation, Australians should be prepared for more interest rate increases," warned Lowe in a speech. "The level of interest rates is still very low for an economy with low unemployment and that is experiencing high inflation."

At the same time, the official made it clear that the RBA would not follow the Fed's suit. Last week, the US central bank lifted rates by 0.75% for the first time since 1994.

"At the moment, the decision we will take is either 25 or 50 again at the next meeting," Mr. Lowe said.

By the end of July, the Australian regulator will see the release of Q2 inflation. Therefore, the RBA may well stay hawkish in August.

The bank will also update the economic growth forecast by the August meeting.

Some analysts say these data could affect the pace of rate increases needed to tame inflation.

The interest rate is now seen at around 3.7% by the end of the year. To reach the target, the central bank should go for the most dramatic monetary tightening in its modern history.

Such a scenario would hit consumer spending hard and even lead to a slowdown in economic growth, thus harming the Australian dollar.

In addition, global recession risks are growing as the world's biggest central banks are hiking rakes.

A slowdown in global economic growth could be a serious obstacle to the commodity currency in the long term.

"We forecast AUD/USD will spend most of the next twelve months in a 0.60-0.70 range," the Commonwealth Bank Of Australia said in a note.

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KostiaForexMart
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Technical analysis recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for June 22, 2022​​​​​​​

EUR/USD

Higher timeframes

The area 1.0539 – 1.0582, which united many significant resistances of the higher timeframes, continues to hold back the development of the upward movement. To gain new targets, bulls should eliminate the daily death cross (1.0501 – 1.0522 – 1.0573 – 1.0624), enlist the support of the weekly short-term trend (1.0583) and enter the daily cloud (1.0558). For bears, the targets remain the same, which are the local lows 1.0339 and 1.0349.

H4 – H1

Bulls are still having a hard time developing their advantage on the lower timeframes. For several days now, they have been interacting with key supports, being in their zone of attraction. Consolidation below and reversal of the moving average (1.0500—weekly long-term trend) will change the current balance of power, and then bullish interests may be replaced by opportunities for strengthening bearish sentiment.

GBP/USD

Higher timeframes

Bulls fail to develop a rebound. As a result, the pair continues to consolidate in the zone of attraction of the daily Ichimoku cross (Tenkan 1.2225 – Kijun 1.2300). The most significant resistance of this section is now at the level of 1.2388 (the final level of the daily cross + weekly short-term trend). The reference points for a bearish trend are 1.2000 (psychological level) – 1.1933 (local low). Overcoming these levels may change the current balance of power.

H4 – H1

Bulls had been in possession of the key levels of the lower timeframes for a long time, but failed to develop their advantage. Today, an attempt is being made to change the balance of power, perhaps the opponent, having seized the key levels 1.2232–79 (central pivot point of the level of the day + weekly long-term trend), will be more effective.
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KostiaForexMart
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Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 23, 2022

US President Joe Biden asked Congress to introduce a gas tax holiday for only three months, which is far less than expected. He also requested to try to avoid cuts to the highway fund, adding that the fuel tax will continue to finance the construction and maintenance of roads. This is worrying because the budget deficit is already almost $ 1.6 trillion, and Biden's proposal will certainly push it higher. Congress has not responded, but they accepted the proposal for consideration. Unsurprisingly, dollar demand fell because, given November's congressional and Senate elections, there is little doubt that this measure will be taken.

In terms of euro, there is a high chance that it will decline during the European trading session because preliminary estimates of business activity indices are down. In particular, the manufacturing index is expected to fall from 54.6 points to 54.0 points. The service index is also projected to dip from 56.1 points to 55.8 points, and the composite PMI to decrease from 54.8 to 54.2.

Composite PMI (Europe):

Similarly, preliminary estimates to business activity in the UK also show a decrease. The manufacturing index is expected to fall from 54.6 points to 54.2 points, while the service index is projected to go down from 53.4 points to 52.8 points. The composite index is also likely to decrease from 53.1 points to 52.3 points.

Composite PMI (UK):

But during the US trading session, the market will return to the levels hit at the opening of the trading day. After all, the US is also expected to report declines in all its indices of business activity. The manufacturing index will drop from 57.0 points to 56.0 points, while the services sector will decrease from 53.4 points to 53.0 points. The composite index will fall from 53.6 points to 52.8 points.

Composite PMI (United States):

In short, the market will fluctuate throughout the day, but close with zero result.

EUR/USD rushed up, prolonging the current corrective move. 1.0600 serves as a variable resistance on the way of buyers, relative to which a short-term stagnation-rollback has occurred. For the subsequent upward move, the quote needs to hold above 1.0600 in the four-hour TF.

Despite the strong buying pressure, GBP/USD remains within 1.2170/1.2320. In this situation, traders must first overcome one or another boundary of the established range, and only then talk about the direction. Signals will occur in the four-hour TF.

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KostiaForexMart
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Tips for beginner traders in EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 24, 2022

Details of the economic calendar from June 23
Preliminary data on business activity indices were published in Europe, the UK, and the United States, which had a strong impact on financial markets.

Europe's manufacturing PMI fell significantly stronger than the forecast from 54.6 to 52.0 points. Meanwhile, things are even worse for the services PMI, which fell from 56.1 to 52.8 points.

The European currency at this time was under a strong division of sellers.

As for the UK, things are a little better. The manufacturing index fell from 54.6 to 54.2 points against the forecast of 53.4 points. In the services sector, the indicators remained unchanged, although the index was expected to decline from 53.4 points to 52.8 points.

The pound sterling was under less pressure, but due to a positive correlation with the euro, it still lost value.

During the American trading session, weekly data on jobless claims in the US were first published, where a slight increase in the overall indicator was recorded. This is a negative factor for the labor market.

Statistics details:

The volume of continuing claims for benefits increased from 1.310 million to 1.315 million.

The volume of initial claims for benefits decreased from 231,000 to 229,000.

The main figures for the US were published a little later. The manufacturing index of business activity decreased from 57.0 to 52.4 points, with a forecast of 52.4 points. Meanwhile, the services sector decreased from 53.4 to 51.6 points, with a forecast of 53.5 points.

Negative statistics on the United States had a negative impact on the dollar.

Analysis of trading charts from June 23
The EURUSD currency pair once again reduced the volume of short positions around the support level of 1.0500. This led to a slowdown in the downward cycle and, as a result, a price rebound.

The GBPUSD currency pair has been moving within a wide range of 1.2150/1.2320 for a week now. This price fluctuation indicates a slowdown in the corrective move from the area of the psychological level of 1.2000, while at the same time signaling a characteristic uncertainty among traders.

Economic calendar for June 24
Today, since the opening of the European session, data on retail sales were published, where the rate of decline slowed down from -5.7% to -4.7%. This is a positive factor if it were not for the revision of the previous indicators for the worse from -4.9% to 5.7%. A stronger slowdown in the rate of decline to -4.1% is also predicted.

The bottom line shows bad statistics, which negatively affects the British currency.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on June 24
The price movement within the range of 1.0500/1.0600 attracts a lot of attention of speculators, which corresponds to the process of accumulation of trading forces. As a result, the closed loop will complete the formation, which will lead to acceleration and indicate the subsequent path relative to the range. A signal to action will appear at the moment when the price stays outside one or another border in the daily period.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on June 24
The price movement within the flat is still relevant in the market, so another price rebound from its upper border cannot be ruled out. As the main strategy, traders consider the tactics of breaking through one or another frame of the established range.

Trading recommendations are based on the breakout tactics:

Buy positions on the currency pair are taken into account after holding the price above the value of 1.2325 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2400.

Sell positions should be considered after holding the price below 1.2150 in a four-hour period with the prospect of a move to 1.2000.

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KostiaForexMart
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Trading plan for EURUSD on July 04, 2022​​​​​​​

Technical outlook:
EURUSD dropped through the 1.0380 lows on Friday before reversing sharply. The single currency pair is seen to be trading close to 1.0430 at this point in writing and is expected to target close to 1.1100 in the next few weeks. Bulls are required to hold prices above the 1.0350 interim support to keep the proposed structure intact.

EURUSD has been dropping from the 1.2350 high since January 2021, carving lower lows and lower highs. The recent downswing could be seen between 1.2266 and 1.0350 as marked on the daily chart. Ideally, prices should retrace the above recent boundary at least until the 1.1086-1.1100 area, which is the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level.

EURUSD further produced a lower-degree upswing between 1.0350 and 1.0786 in May 2022. Since then, it has remained subdued oscillating broadly between 1.0380 and 1.0600 and needs to breakout. A push above 1.0600 will be quite encouraging for the bulls to come back in control and push through 1.1100 going forward.

Trading plan:
Potential rally towards 1.1100 against 1.0350

Good luck!

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