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HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 6th November 2020.

NFP Friday on a US Election week!

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Treasury Action: losses on Treasuries have accelerated even as stocks sag. Some of the action is a function of unwinding of some of this week’s big moves. But there’s some renewed concerns creeping back into the markets as the expectation for a split Congress is coming into doubt as special elections are likely necessary in January.
The US Dollar headed a bit higher after the jobs report, which revealed a higher than consensus NFP print, and saw the unemployment rate fall to 6.9% from 7.9%. USDJPY rallied to 103.48 from 103.35, while EURUSD dipped toward 1.1865 from 1.1880. Equity futures remain in the red, though off earlier lows, while yields ticked slightly higher before pulling back.

[VIDEO]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=390059935451192[/VIDEO]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 9th November 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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Uncertainty and doubts soared in November as the virus surged, the FED and ECB have been unable to deliver more stimulus yet, and the US election is indicating a Biden presidency and a split Congress, with Republicans likely to retain the Senate and Democrats retaining the House. More volatility looks to be in store for next week as the market monitors economic data and events for signs of faltering growth in the US and Europe into a recession.

Monday – 09 November 2020

BoE Governor Bailey speech and BoE Haldane (GBP, GMT 10:35 & 14:00) – The BoE in November topped up its asset purchase program by a further GBP 150 bln. That was a pretty clear indication that the BoE is not expecting to go down the negative rate route and that the weapon of choice remains asset purchases, which will help the government to raise the funds necessary to finance the costly labour market support and stimulus program.

Tuesday – 10 November 2020

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation data in September was lower at 0.2% m/m and 1.7% y/y. October’s reading however is expected to grow to 1.8% y/y as China shows recovery in key sectors.

Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 1.2% (3Mo/Yr) in September. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined to 4.3% from 4.5% in the three months to September.

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for September is expected to have spiked to 67.7 in November. The Eurozone presents a picture of a split economy in general with manufacturing holding up and services struggling, and that effect will also widen the gap between Eurozone economies, as countries relying more on services and tourism will struggle much more than Germany.

Wednesday – 11 November 2020

Interest Rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 14:00) – In September, at the last meeting, the RBNZ left its official cash rate and QE program unchanged, as had been widely anticipated, but stressed a willingness to take further stimulus measures if necessary while noting persisting downside risks to the economy, adding that currency strength remains a negative for NZ exporters. The RBNZ indicated it is actively working on a negative rate stance and the expansion of QE.

Thursday – 12 November 2020

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The November BoE report took into account the resurgence of Covid-19 case numbers and the resulting restrictions in the UK and elsewhere and hence the GDP is expected to contract again in the last quarter of the year, largely due to “lower consumer spending on social activity, which was assumed to be partially offset by higher spending on other goods and services”. However as per the preliminary report, GDP for Q3 is seen to deteriorate further and present a still dismal -20.5% q/q contraction, and -22.4% y/y from -21.5%.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) –The final German HICP inflation for October is seen at -0.4% y/y from -0.5%.

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI headline and core are both expected to show with 0.2% October gains, following 0.2% gains for both in September as well. CPI gasoline prices look poised to be flat in October so they’ll have no impact on the headline. As-expected October figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.3%, steady from September.

Friday – 13 November 2020

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 10:00) – The release of preliminary Q3 GDP numbers for the Eurozone two weeks ago confirmed that economic activity rebounded as lockdowns were lifted with most countries’ data actually coming in stronger than initially anticipated. Hence unchanged number are anticipated for this week’s reading as the activity levels remain far below those seen a year ago, while at the same time there is the resurgence in virus cases and renewed lockdowns across most major Eurozone countries.

Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – As with PPI, a flat October headline gain is forecasted with 0.2% for the core, following 0.4% gains for both in September. The y/y core reading is assumed to rise to the 1.5% area into the turn of the year, with a downward hit from reduced aggregate demand but a boost for prices from supply disruptions. Supply constraints for some sectors will prove increasingly important in Q4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 10th November 2020.

USA100 holds under extensive pressure

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Global stock markets are mostly higher, resuming yesterday’s stellar day on Wall Street as the indexes raced sharply higher on surprisingly positive vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNTech. News from Pfizer that its COVID vaccine is very effective prompted risk-on conditions globally, lifting stocks, yields and crude oil prices.

In the Asian market equities petered out amid the realisation that there are still considerable challenges ahead in the fight against Covid-19, however there is at least a light at the end of the tunnel now that will also reduce the pressure on central banks to add ever more stimulus. Currently however equities other than the European ones have settled in a comparatively narrow range.

The GER30 is up, after correcting some of yesterday’s sharp gains, but is holding above early lows. Other European indices are higher, with the UK100 gaining a further 0.8%, the CAC 40 up 0.5% and the Spanish IBEX 1.8%. The wider Euro Stoxx 600 has risen 7% over the past 5 days, but is still down 6% over the year, highlighting that there is still room for further improvement if and when it is confirmed that the virus situation is under control and Europe doesn’t face a further cycle of lockdowns and restrictions.

On the US side however the USA100 holds in the red after it closed yesterday -1.5% lower. The hopes for a more normal life saw investors pile into travel and leisure sectors, and flee the stay home sectors. Hence, the USA100’s gains lagged through for a second consecutive day and the index fell into negative territory. The USA100 was hit by the rotation out of defensive technology stocks into shares that will benefit most from an end to lockdowns.

The asset is in a dramatic shift this week towards negative sentiment. Selling pressure has ramped up and there has been a significant breakdown on the 20-day SMA and a reversal of more than 50% of last week’s gains. The latest higher high at 12,422 has been rejected suggesting that the 3-month descending triangle is still in place and consolidation is underway. Momentum indicators are now flat to negative in the daily chart, while intraday they are decisively negative, with 4-hour RSI consistently failing under 40 and MACD readying to turn negative. This suggests an outlook of selling into near term strength.

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Hence now the November higher low and 100FE at 10,929 and 11,155 are the areas to be seen of overhead supply and a near term sell-zone for any bounces this week. Breaking down below the 10,929 and more precisely 10,700 (September low & 3-month support) could confirm a medium term bearish outlook with immediate support levels on the March-September upleg. There is initial resistance at 12,000 – 12,422 .

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 11th November 2020.

FX Update – November 11 – USD lifts, JPY drops, & GBP mixed

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The Dollar has firmed against the Euro and other European currencies outside the case versus the Pound, with the UK currency posting two-month highs against both the Dollar and Yen, while holding steady-to-lower against the dollar bloc before rotating lower as the news broke that the mid-Nov trade deal deadline looks to be extended from November 15 into next week.

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The risk-on mood has continued. Europe’s Stoxx 600 equity index rallied to its best levels in eight months, and S&P 500 E-mini futures were showing a gain of nearly 0.8% as of the early afternoon in London. The 10-year US T-note yield rose 1.5 bp to a new eight-month high at 0.979%. Commodities were mixed, however, though oil prices gained more than 3%.

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In forex markets, Yen weakness and outperformance in commodity currencies and those of export oriented economies have been prevailing. USDJPY lifted back above 105.50, though remained shy of the highs seen on Monday, while AUDJPY and NZDJPY posted new two- and 10-month highs, respectively.

A pricing out of negative interest rate expectations in New Zealand following the RBNZ policy review today, which saw policymakers signal that the need for more monetary stimulus has reduced, boosted the Kiwi Dollar, which gained about 1% on the US Dollar and by more against the Yen. But biggest mover today, so far is EURNZD down some 1.5% from early day trades at 1.7350 to 1.7090 lows now.

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The Japanese currency’s pronounced underperformance on Monday and continued softness marks a return to form with an inverse correlation of risk appetite in global markets. The success of Pfizer’s candidate vaccine for Covid in trials has been greeted as a game changer by investors. Bank shares, which hit record valuation lows this year, and so-called social-close stocks along with energy shares have rallied strongly, revealing that investors are looking across the valley of the prevailing predicament of Covid-related restrictions and economic weakness, and beyond to a return to normality in 2021. There is naturally some caution (known unknowns include long-term vaccine efficacy and population-wide safety), which has seen asset price gains lose momentum, though the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus that is in the works across the world, and the lower-for-longer monetary policy rubric at the Fed and other central banks (which enhances the value of corporate earnings), is a powerful tonic for higher valuations in cyclical assets. There are also a multitude of other credible Covid-19 vaccine candidates, aside from Pfizer’s, many of which have been reporting encouraging signs in advanced-stage testing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 12th November 2020.

FX Update – November 12 – Sterling Pressured, JPY in Demand

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GBPJPY, H1

Some reversal in recent positioning themes has been seen, with the dollar bloc and Pound softening against the Dollar, and the Yen outperforming moderately. This dynamic has been concomitant with global stock markets, outside the case of Japan, flagging. A fall in Chinese tech stocks, sparked by Beijing regulators launching an antitrust investigation, led a broader paring of recent gains in equity markets, which surged over the last week. Some caution had already been creeping back into markets, at least enough to deter investors from entering new positions at the recently heightened levels. The raised level of optimism for a Covid-19 vaccine assisted return to normality remains intact, though there is some way to go and there are known unknowns, including long-term vaccine efficacy and population-wide safety issues. There also appears to be some disquiet about Trump’s refusal to accept the election results, especially with his move to fire his defence secretary, which some fear means that he will try to stay in office. Unnamed Trump aides cited by the Washington Post, however, say that he has no real plan to overturn the results. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gets a special mention for bucking the trend in rallying to a fresh 29-year high.

In currencies, EURUSD has been trading neutrally in the mid-to-upper 1.1700s. The pair completed a more-than 50% retrace of the outsized gain the pair saw last week and through to Monday, which left a two-month peak at 1.1920. USDJPY has ebbed moderately, to the lower 105.00s. The Pound has come under some moderate pressure, correcting recent gains. There is still no breakthrough in EU-UK trade talks. Sources cited by Reuters yesterday reported that the ‘final-final’ deadline is the end of next week, (November 20) so the clock is ticking. The general expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal. Media networks, meanwhile, are increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts of the UK leaving the single market and customs union, which will happen in just seven weeks’ time. Today’s UK GDP data, although a Q3 record at 15.5%, showed further weakness during September and was 3 ticks below expectations of 15.8%. The current data shows the UK economy is -9.7% smaller than it was at the end of Q4 2019.

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Technically, GBPJPY rejected 140.00 yesterday, moving under the 20-Hour moving average into the close. Today the pair have moved under 139.00 and tested S2 at 138.70, and R3 is at 138.05. The fast MAs are aligned and trending lower, RSI is 36 and falling, the MACD histogram & signal line are also aligned lower and breached 0 line this morning. Stochastics have moved into the oversold zone but remain weak. The H1 ATR is 0.1630, and the Daily ATR is 1.3000.

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Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar dropped back after a short-lived rally following remarks by RBNZ’s Hawkesby, who said that while negative interest rates remain an option, less monetary stimulus now appears necessary than previously thought, which essentially repeated the signalling from the central bank yesterday in the wake of its policy review. NZDUSD printed a 20-month high at 0.6914 before retreating to the mid 0.6800s.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 13th November 2020.

A risk-back-on theme has emerged

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The Pound was showing a 0.5% gain on the US Dollar as of the late London morning, and the UK currency was also making gains versus the Euro, Yen and other currencies. Several factors appear to be at play. One is the rebound in equity markets, which, if view edas a revival of the Covid vaccine rally, is a positive for the Pound, with the UK having large pre-orders of the Pfizer candidate vaccine.

The European bourses have recovered and are mostly in the green, albeit slightly having pared gains, with the GER30 up about 0.1%, though the UK100 is -0.6% lower. European stock indices are racking up gains of over 0.5% and USA500 futures are up by nearly 1%, nearly reversing all of the closing losses that the cash version of the index saw on Wall Street yesterday. The UK saw the biggest peak to trough drop in its GDP this year out of the G20 economies, so it may benefit most in the route out of the crisis.

Another consideration is the political developments on Downing Street, with the departure of the government’s director of communications, and news that Dominic Cummings will leave his advisory role by Christmas, being read as a weakening in the influence of the ‘Vote Leave’ campaigners, meaning there could be a softer, more pragmatic attitude to Brexit, although it is not yet clear what shape the new administration set-up will take. As for the ongoing negotiations, there is still no breakthrough with only about a week to go to the ‘final final’ deadline.

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Evidently, given the Pound’s performance, the prevailing market expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal, which is what is anticipated. Both sides will have to make concessions if a deal is to be achieved. All things Brexit go down to the wire, and neither side has been willing, as yet, to make the first move in the concession game. Too much is at stake for both sides, surely, for there to be a failure in statesmanship. It should also be clear that the UK government has the option of exiting the common market in close alignment to EU rules and then diverging in an evolving process over time. The promise of future divergence would serve to mollify the powerful faction of Brexit ideologues.

There is also the possibility of there being a ‘technical delay’, though the political mood seems set against this. UK media, meanwhile, have been increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts to cross border trade that are likely to be seen when the UK leaves the single market and customs union in just seven weeks’ time.

Cable posted a high at 1.3185, which recouped nearly two thirds of yesterday’s decline, while EURGBP dropped to levels under 0.9002, correcting from yesterday’s high.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 24th November 2020.

Macro Events & News – November 24 2020

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Market News Today

USD recovered after better than expected PMI’s. – Earlier AstraZeneca vaccine hopes lifted stocks, EZ PMIs worse than expected, UK’s better than expected but both poor. Trump acknowledged that Biden transition should start – Equities rallied further (Nikkei back and up 2.5%) & riskier currencies gained a bid. Biden to name Yellen as Treasury Secretary & Kerry as Climate Tsar. In total a triple whammy for sentiment and risk appetite. USOil followed stocks higher and Gold trades $50 lower than Friday’s close. German GDP revised higher to 8.5% in final reading, from 8.2%.

Shortened Thanksgiving Week Ahead – Highlights – FOMC mins – more significance, after Mnuchin removed emergency funding – possibility of action at their Dec. meeting. Plus – Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods & GDP

USDIndex – Sank to support at 92.00 yesterday – rallied to 92.70, post PMI’s. back under PP now at 92.35. S1 92.10, R1 92.90.

EUR – Rejected 1.1900 & tested down to 1.1800, again yesterday. Now 1.1855 (PP) JPY – down to 103.67 lows yesterday. Rallied to 104.60, now back to 104.40. PP 104.25.

GBP – rallied to a smidge shy of 1.3400, & down to 1.3262. Back to 1.3340 (PP)now all in anticipation of EU-UK Trade announcement this week?

AUD – 0.7340 – 0.7270 range yesterday. Trades at 0.7320 now (R1), PP 0.7295 NZD – down to test 0.6900 yesterday, another good Asian session for king Kiwi, back to test R2 0.6990 earlier, now at 0.6975.

CAD – Back to 1.3040 (S1) ; R1 & 200Ma cap at 1.3090, S2 1.3015 CHF – 0.9075 lows to 0.9150 yesterday. Back to PP and 200Ma now 0.9115, s1 0.9093

BTC – Holds bid at $18,400 (PP). Tested to 18k low yesterday.

GOLD – Collapsed 3% from 1876 to test S1 at 1820 earlier – now 1830 – PP 1850 USOil – Rallied over R1 to $43.70. Vaccine hopes & OPEC+ production cut noises continue to support prices. R2 today 43.90. Private inventories later, official EIA data tomorrow.

USA500 – Closed +20 (+0.56%) 3577 – USA500 FUTS now at 3605.

Today – German IFO, US Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Haskel, Fed’s Bullard, Williams, ECB’s Schnabel, Lagarde, Lane,

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.79%) –. Holds rally from yesterdays sub 72.00 open, ran to test R3 at 73.05 earlier. Fast MA’s aligned higher but cooling at R2, RSI 68 moving below OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher, breached 0-line last week. Stochs. lowering from OB H1 ATR 0.2565 Daily ATR 0.7411.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 25th November 2020.

Caution and profit taking has crept into the market

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US equity futures are mixed with modest moves as caution and profit taking has crept into the market following yesterday’s risk on rally. Wall Street surged with gains of over 1.5% on the broader indexes as strong efficacy rates on three vaccine candidates continued to brighten outlooks and increase the potential for a return to normalcy sooner than later. However as the overall outlook remains positive for US futures there seems to be limited appetite to push valuations out further for now, as much of next year’s (expected) recovery is already priced in, while virus developments spell further restrictions for the weeks and likely months ahead.

Expectations that Janet Yellen would be named as Treasury Secretary under a Biden administration was a relief as she’s a known quantity and would likely support hefty stimulus. Treasuries sagged, not surprisingly, on the strength in risk appetite and amid a heavy supply slate this week.

Today features a heavy dose of data ahead of the market closure on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, which could make for choppy action. Of note, Q3 after tax corporate profits came in at a record 27.5% pace, from -10.7% in Q2. The USA30 is off -0.2% but sustained close to 30K area while the USA500 mini has slipped -0.06%. The USA100 mini is 0.3% firmer after underperforming the rally yesterday that saw the USA30 close above 30k for the first time ever.

GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.1%, and up 0.3% respectively. Governments across Europe are pondering how and if to ease lockdowns over the festive period while the WHO has already warned of a third wave in the winter.

Yields have dipped modestly after disappointing jobless claims data and as stock futures give back some of yesterday’s historic gains. US Advance goods trade deficit widened to -$80.3 bln in October after the unexpected narrowing to -$79.4 bln in September. Advance durable goods orders rose 1.3% in October after climbing 2.1% (was 1.9%) in September. This is a sixth straight monthly gain as orders recover from the pandemic plunge in the spring that saw an -18.3% drop in April, just short of the weakest on record of -18.8% from August 2014. US initial jobless claims rose 30k to 778k in the week ended November 21 after claims gained 37k to 748k (was 742k) in the November 14 week. It is the strongest reading for initial claims in five weeks, as the surge in Covid infections and the consequent increase in restrictions on activity has weighed on the job market. Last the US Q3 GDP growth was left unrevised at 33.1% from the Advance report. Growth has bounced back at an historic pace after cratering at a record -31.4% rate in Q2.

The belly of the curve is outperforming with yields down over 1 bp as the market digests this week’s record supply. The 5-year is at 0.385%, with the 7-year at 0.634%. The 10-year has richened 1 bp to 0.870%, and the bond is flat at 1.60%. The 5s-30s bull steepened to 121.5 bps from 120.8 bps yesterday and 116.7 bps Monday. Bonds should find support from worries over spiking virus cases and more strict lockdowns, along with month-end where Barclays forecasts a 0.16-year extension, the most since 2009.

Attention remains on vaccines and the virus. Additionally, Brexit warnings and comments from central banks suggesting caution on additional rate cuts added to pressures on equities. ECB officials continue to flag the extension of PEPP. Mersch, however, signaled he is not looking to cut the deposit rate further.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 26th November 2020.

Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!

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The USD has remained soft in quiet conditions, while global asset markets have seen little direction. The US Thanksgiving holiday has quelled activity. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded near flat. Most stock markets in Asia gained, though remained off recent highs. The MSCI World Index is also off its highs, but remained buoyant and on course for a record monthly increase this month. Copper posted a new near 7-year high, and while other base metal prices were also underpinned most remained off recent trend highs. Oil prices saw modest declines after recent gains, which culminated in a nine-month high yesterday.

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The Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!

Sterling has seen limited direction, continuing to hold gains from month-ago levels of around 1.5% to 2.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is still no breakthrough in down-to-the-wire negotiations between the EU and UK, and there are lots of warnings of border chaos and, from external BoE MPC member Saunders, of long-lasting economic consequences in the event of a no deal exit from the common market.

European Commission president von der Leyen said “we are ready to be creative” to get a deal while repeating that “we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market.” An Irish government member said that a deal was “imperative” for everyone.

The steadiness in the Pound, the principal conduit of financial market Brexit sentiment, reveals that investors remain unperturbed. One explanation is the real money participants are sitting on their collective hands, positioning for an expected deal but waiting on concrete developments and details, while maintaining vigilance on the possibility of there being a no deal by accident.

Short-term speculative participants, meanwhile, don’t seem to have had a fruitful time in trying to play the fatiguing myriad news headlines and endless deadlines that have come and gone. The latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday — December 1 — which leaves just one month for a deal to be ratified on both sides of the Channel. We expect to a deal to materialize at the last minute, just as the withdrawal agreement was seemingly pulled out of the hat at the ultimate minute a year ago. There may even be a fudged extension.

Pressure on the UK government is intense. US president-elect Biden warned London that the scope for a deal with the US would be compromised if there is a return of a hard border on Ireland — which is what could happen in a no-deal scenario (the UK government would have the choice between maintaining a free-flowing border on Ireland at the price of breaking up the border integrity of the UK, and possible protests and even violence from loyalists, or breaking the EU withdrawal agreement, which would result in a hard Irish land border).

A leaked Whitehall document warns of a “perfect storm” of chaos in the event of a no-deal in the Covid-19 era. There are also pressures on the other side of the Channel to reach an accord. While French President Macron has political incentive to put up a show of fighting over fishing rights, he is not likely to carry through on his threat to veto any deal as other key EU states don’t see the UK’s position on fishing as being unreasonable. France and other nations, and the UK, also need to maintain good relations for security and many other practical reasons.

As for the market impact of a deal, much will depend on how narrow the deal is. The narrower it is, the bigger the negative impact on both the UK and EU’s terms of trade positions will be on January 1, particularly the UK’s.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 27th November 2020.

FX Update – November 27 – Sterling in Focus

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GBPUSD, H1

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in risk-cautious trading. The USDIndex settled around the 92.00 level, above yesterday’s 12-week low at 91.84. EURUSD remained buoyant but off from the 12-day peak seen yesterday at 1.1942. Cable also held within its Thursday range. USDJPY ebbed to a four-day low at 103.91. The Yen was concurrently steady versus the Euro and the Pound, but posted respective two- and four-day lows against the Australian and Canadian Dollars. AUDUSD ticked fractionally higher, which was still sufficient to lift the pair into 12-week high terrain above 0.7380. NZDUSD posted a new 29-month peak at 0.7030. USDCAD remained heavy but just above recent 17-day lows. Bitcoin, which performed strongly this year on the back of dollar liquidity, found a toehold, but remained over 12% down on its recent highs.

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US markets will reopen after yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, but market conditions will remain on the thin side. President Trump said that he will leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for Biden, which may be as close to formally conceding the election as he will go. A sharp focus remains on EU and UK talks, with a face-to-face round reportedly taking place in London over the weekend. There are now reports that the EU parliament might convene as late as December 28 to ratify a deal, if necessary.

The spectre of a no-deal hangs over proceedings, though the consensus, as judged by the ongoing stability of the Pound, remains for a narrow deal to be reached.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 30th November 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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Europe and US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions.still leaves central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front leaves investors looking ahead to the recovery. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, Brexit as the latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday, OPEC+ group which will also decide on extending prevailing quota restrictions next Tuesday, and on the Non-Farm Payroll outcome.

Monday – 30 November 2020

Eurogroup Meeting.

Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slowdown to 52.1 from 56.2 in October.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for November is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.5% y/y.

Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Pending home sales experienced a minor decline at -2.2% in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth/ For October we could further decline to -2.6%.

Tuesday – 01 December 2020

RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In the last meeting, RBA stepped up stimulus to ensure recovery by announcing a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. RBA’s Lowe also stated that he sees no appetite to go into negative rates. The central bank head send a pretty clear signal that the focus now has shifted to asset purchases, with no appetite at the central bank to move into negative rate territory.

Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Preliminary November inflation expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% y/y in the final reading for September, unchanged from the preliminary release. Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line.

Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for the Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to 38.7% last month.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks.

Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00)

Wednesday – 02 December 2020

RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00).

Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y.

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September.

ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October.

Thursday – 03 December 2020

Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y.

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but different sales season amid the pandemic distort the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month.

ISM Service PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Service PMI is seen at 56.4.

Friday – 04 December 2020

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss.

Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall.

Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight deduction in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6 in October for employment, to 100k.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 8th December 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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This will be a week of increased attention to the central banks with ECB and BoC on tap. The markets also remain focused on positive vaccine development and growing hopes for more fiscal stimulus before year end. Nevertheless, for Europe, a deal between the EU and UK is “imminent”, expected before the end of the weekend, according to an EU source cited by Reuters.

Monday – 07 December 2020

Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Gross Domestic Product should advance in Q3 and reveal headline growth of 21.5% y/y and 5% q/q, with external demand, capital expenditure and private consumption rising.

Tuesday – 08 December 2020

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German December ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 35 compared to 39 in November.

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Gross Domestic Product is seen stable at 12.6% growth in Q3 after the German Q3 GDP growth, released November 24, which was revised up to 8.5% (q/q, sa) in the final reading, from the 8.2% reported initially. It was an impressive bounce back from Q2’s -9.8% plunge, but the performance was not sufficient to compensate for the contraction that was triggered by lockdowns earlier in the year.

Wednesday – 09 December 2020

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery appears to be broadening, as a key manufacturing sentiment measure improved to its best level in three years during November while a non-manufacturing sentiment measure saw its best reading in eight years during November. CPI is expected to accelerate to a 0.8% y/y pace in November following the 0.5% growth last month.

Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The reports so far are consistent with the ongoing recovery in Canada’s economy since the spring shutdown. Of course, the gain in November employment was the smallest monthly increase since hiring resumed in May, reflecting well anticipated moderation to a more sustainable pace as the reopening pop faded. However, the jobs and trade reports are consistent with no change in the BoC’s 0.25% rate setting expected at next week’s announcement, alongside a reiteration of the pledge to hold rates at 0.25% into 2023.

Thursday – 10 December 2020

European Council Meeting.

Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45-13:30) – The European Central Bank (ECB) remains on course to ease policy further in December, with officials highlighting that despite positive vaccine developments, the recovery will need ongoing monetary and in particular fiscal support through 2021. Comments confirm that the ECB remains on course to extend stimulus at the December 10th meeting with asset purchases and longer-term loans the central bank’s main weapons. The ECB is expected to strengthen PEPP, but could also boost regular asset purchase programs and improve TLTROs, although the final package will likely also depend on what happens on the virus front. Even in the best-case scenario, PEPP is still expected to be extended through next year, and Lagarde has made it clear that the ECB is firmly focused on helping governments to extend fiscal support by maintaining favorable financing conditions.

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.1% November gain for the CPI headline and a 0.2% core price rise are anticipated, following flat rates for both in October. CPI gasoline prices look poised to fall -0.4% in November, leaving a headwind for the headline. As-expected November figures would result in a 1.1% headline y/y increase, following a 1.2% October rise. Core prices should show a 1.6% y/y rise, as seen in October. With average inflation targeting, the Fed will face no pressure to withdraw accommodation any time soon.

Friday – 11 December 2020

European Council Meeting – Day 2.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for July is anticipated to dip to -0.5% in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 10th December 2020.

FX Update – December 10 – Sterling in the cross-hairs

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GBPUSD & GBPAUD, H1

Sterling is under pressure after three hours of “lively and interesting” talks between UK PM Johnson and the European Commission President von der Leyen and their chief negotiators last night failed to find a way round “significant obstacles.” Talks will continue, and a new deadline has been set for Sunday, with the leaders promising that a “firm decision” will be made then, though UK foreign secretary Raab said that talks could still be extended. Either Johnson will have to decide whether the disruption of a no-deal is worth the risk, and/or von der Leyen will have to persuade EU leaders to budge during the group leaders’ summit today and tomorrow. The BBC’s Europe editor Katya Alder reported that EU diplomats are ready to go the extra mile, but contrary to the UK government view, the EU thinks the ultimate decision for deal or no deal lies primarily with the UK.

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Our hunch is that a deal will still be reached, though Johnson will need some concessions from the EU as he will have to sell any deal to the influential faction of Brexit ideologues in his party. Sunday is the first anniversary of his 80-seat General Election win. The EU’s demands on fishing access to UK waters and governance, and in particular retaliatory measures if the UK diverged from EU rules, are on terms that Johnson singled out yesterday, just ahead of his trip to Brussels, that “no prime minister could accept.” He has some wiggle room, as he could argue that leaving the EU in some alignment of its rules is the pragmatic option in the Covid era, and that the UK could diverge from EU rules over time. A no-deal scenario would not come without potentially significant political risks to Johnson, and would see Scotland’s SNP step up demands for an independence referendum. The European Commission said it will publish “very narrow” no-deal contingency plans to maintain aviation and functioning borders.

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The Pound has dropped over 0.5% against the Dollar in falling to the lower 1.3300s, and has seen a similar magnitude of decline against the Euro and other currencies. The USDIndex edged out a three-day high at 91.09, aided by the pound’s weakness, while EURUSD has lifted moderately after posting an eight-day low at 1.2059 yesterday. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has remained perky, posting a new three-month high against the Yen, and nearing the 29-month high seen against the US Dollar yesterday. Unsurprisingly GBPAUD is the biggest mover so far today (-1.30%). The pair rejected 1.8050 & closed under 1.8000 yesterday. The sell-off continued today from open, and has breached 1.7900 and trades below S3 to test 1.770. The fast EMAs aligned and are trending lower, RSI 29 and approaching OB, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, broke 0-line yesterday morning, Stochs OB from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0035, Daily ATR 0.0152.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 11th December 2020.

FX Update – December 11 – USD & GBP Remain Heavy

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EURUSD, H1

The Dollar softened against most currencies, with most stock markets and oil prices rising in Asia, although overall risk appetite in global markets is relatively more subdued compared to recent times. As the European session got under way some demand for the USD has been evident. The GER30 has tanked over 1% in European trading as a no-trade deal Brexit, potentially looms. Base metal prices are below trend highs, and US equity index futures are also flat or modestly lower. The risk of a no-deal outcome between the EU and UK in the Brexit endgame has risen, while in the US Democrat House Speaker Pelosi said that wrangling over a fiscal aid package could drag on through Christmas, just as Covid-19 containing measures are becoming more restrictive and extensive across the country. Add in the usual year-end wind down, along with depleted levels of cash on hand at global investors, and the scene looks set for a consolidation in global asset markets, if not a correction.

UserPostedImage

Among currencies, the USDIndex fell to a four-day low at 90.62, swinging the 32-month low that was seen a week ago at 90.48 back into scope, before a tick higher 90.80. EURUSD concurrently lifted to a four-day high, at 1.2163 and then declined to 1.2130. The pair’s 32-month low, seen last Friday, is at 1.2178. USDJPY fell back to levels around 104.00, correcting after yesterday posting a nine-day high at 104.59. AUDUSD posted a fresh 30-month high at 0.7571, and AUDJPY scaled to a new 20-month high. NZDUSD saw a 30-month peak, too over 0.7100. USDCAD remained heavy, but remained above the 32-month low seen yesterday at 1.2704. As for the Pound, the currency has been holding up well so far, but looks vulnerable. UK PM Johnson said that “in all candour that the treaty is not there yet,” while stating that he is willing to return to Brussels, or visit Berlin and/or Paris, to get a deal over the line. The leaders have set a deadline of Sunday, though discussions could extend through next week if a deal has been agreed by the end of the weekend. Markets still expect a deal, but acknowledge the risk for a no-deal. Bookmakers Willian Hill are currently given odds with an implied probability of 61.9% for a no-deal outcome, with a 45.5% chance given for a deal being struck, which is down from the 62% that was given ahead of Johnson’s meeting with EU’s von der Leyen on Wednesday. We would anticipate a sharp decline in the Pound in the event of a no-deal scenario.

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 14th December 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


UserPostedImage

Europe and the US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions still leave central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front has been confronted with slowing economic data. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, the PMI data flow, the FED, BOE, BOJ and SNB and the Brexit trade deal or no trade deal.

Monday – 14 December 2020

The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (JPY, GMT 00:50) – The overall business conditions of the large manufacturing companies in Japan is expected to decline to -27 from -21 last time, with the Outlook holding up at -17 and remaining unchanged.

The FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Economy has been recovering with significant FDI again, last time the data ratcheted to 6.4%.

Industrial Production (Oct) (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The volume of production of Industries for factories and manufacturing has been slowly recovering but showing signs of stalling. September’s negative -0.4% is expected to show a rebound to +1.8% for the October reading.

Tuesday – 15 December 2020

RBA Rate Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 12:30) – RBA kept policy settings unchanged – as widely expected, which left the three-year yield target at 0.10% and the cash rate target also at 0.10%. Governor Lowe said in his statement that the RBA doesn’t expect to lift the cash rate for at least three years. There was no dissention from the official line and little new is likely from the minutes.

Retail Sales & Ind. Production (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Chinese Retail Sales are expected to rise to 5.2% from 4.3% last time and Industrial production is expected to rise to 7.1% from 6.9% as data continues to improve.

Claims, Unemployment Rate and Earnings (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK data flow recently has been remarkably resilient in the face of the pandemic the ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Today data is expected to show unemployment stable at 4.8%, claims increasing significantly to 50,000 and earnings slipping to under 1.0%.

Wednesday – 16 December 2020

PPI, CPI & Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – More UK data, Inflation from producer and consumer spending and Retail Sales all expected to show declines for the month and on an annualized basis. Retails Sales may hold up over 1.3%.

Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Composite figure is expected to show some resilience but remaining very weak rising to just 45.5 from 43.3. The shocks could be around the Services figures for Germany and France earlier in the day. Manufacturing data was showing some lead before the latest round of lockdowns.

US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a -0.2% November retail sales headline with a flat ex-autos measure, following respective October gains of 0.3% and 0.2%.

FED – Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Projections (USD, GMT 19:00) – Beige Book for the December 15-16 FOMC was on the dour side amid the surge in virus, renewed restrictions, and worries over looming expiration of unemployment benefits and moratoriums on foreclosures.

Thursday – 17 December 2020

Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a dramatic fall in employment to -30,000 as unemployment ticks up from 7%.

SNB Interest Rate Decision and MPA (CHF, GMT 08:30) – As with other Central banks, no change is expected from the SNB with regards to interest rates, however, given the CHF’s rapid appreciation to near six year highs versus the weakening USD there maybe some reference to the currency.

BOE Interest Rate & APF Decision, MPC Mins & Vote (GBP, GMT 12:00) – Last time the BOE had to act after turning more pessimistic on the outlook in the light of the renewed lockdown and the increase in the asset purchase target was more generous than markets had expected. This is unlikely to have improved in the short term.

Friday – 18 December 2020

BOJ Interest Rate, MP Statement and Press Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00)– It’s widely expected, the BOJ will leave rates and asset purchases unchanged. BOJ head Kuroda is likely to again stress the downside risks, as economic outlook remains uncertain, but recent data has provided surprises to the upside, but a volatile recovery path is likely.

UK Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Expectations are for the headline number to be 4.2% on a YoY basis down from 5.8%, last time, the MoM data for November to show an unchanged 1.2% and the key Core figure to fall to 5.9% from 7.8% last time.

IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 09:00) – All three indicators are expected to show declines this month, coming in at 90.2, from 90.7, 89.3 from 90.0 and 91.5 from 92.9, respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 15th December 2020.

FX Update – December 15 – Rangebound for now.

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GBPUSD, H1

Narrow ranges have been prevailing among the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates. This has been seen against a backdrop of sputtering global stock markets. Data showing Chinese industrial production rising 7.0% y/y in November, a 20-month high, along with a rise in retail sales, didn’t have much impact. Commodities have also been lacking direction after recent gains.

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The surge in new positive test results for Covid in northern hemisphere countries, ranging from Japan and South Korea, to Europe and the US and Canada, along with more restrictive measures (tighter measures are due to be implemented in London from tomorrow, for instance), is being cited in market narratives as driving the risk-cautious sentiment in markets. While the bigger-picture outlook remains bullish, the view across the valley is being fogged out by the seasonality driven rise in coronavirus cases. The usual year-end wind down in investor commitment is also afoot. The roll-out of Covid vaccination programs in the months ahead won’t be sufficient to make much impact over the upcoming winter months.

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The Brexit endgame, meanwhile, remains in focus, though the negotiation teams are being tight lipped and it is difficult to be sure exactly what the state of play is. The Pound has steadied after rallying yesterday. We do know that both sides have offered concessions, and have entered a post-brinkmanship, pragmatic phase, focused on a ‘managed divergence’ solution. The best market guess is that an agreement will be announced by the end of the week, however a no-deal outcome can’t be ruled out and remains a real possibility.

On Friday I wrote that “UK data flow recently has been remarkably resilient in the face of the pandemic and the ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Today data is expected to show unemployment stable at 4.8%, claims increasing significantly to 50,000 and earnings slipping to under 1.0%.” The results earlier were much darker than expected, as official unemployment ticked higher to 4.9% but this hides the significant number of people (3.7 million) who remain furloughed. The claims did indeed increase, and significantly more than the 50,000 that were expected, coming in at 64,300. Although Earnings did beat expectations at 2.7%, due to one off bonus payments, the outlook remains subdued due to the new lockdown tier 3 regimes, set to cover an additional 10.8 million people, 61% of England’s population – or 34 million people – under the toughest restrictions from Wednesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 16th December 2020.

FX Update – December 16 – Perky PMIs & a weaker USD.

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EURUSD, H1

Eurozone & UK Dec. PMIs were generally stronger than expected, with the exception of UK Services. EU Services sentiment in particular rebounded, even in Germany, which is going into a stricter form of lockdown today, which will see shops closing. The Eurozone Services PMI still suggests contraction at 47.3, but that is a marked improvement compared to the reading of 41.7 in November. Manufacturing sentiment rose to 56.6 from 55.3, which left the composite at a 2-month high of 49.8, which effectively suggests stagnation rather than contraction. Markit commented that due to the improvement in December, the fourth quarter downturn is looking less steep than initially feared. Still, as Markit also highlighted – while the prospect of vaccinations is underpinning future expectations, in the near term the environment remains challenging for many consumer-facing companies.

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In the UK Markit noted that “The UK economy returned to growth in December after the lockdown-driven downturn seen in November, adding to signs that the hit to the economy from the second wave of virus infections has so far been far less harsh than the first wave in the spring.” The recovery lacked vigour, however, as the service sector remained under particular strain, contracting marginally again as ongoing social distancing measures due to tiered lockdowns continued to hit many parts of the economy. Manufacturing numbers were 57.3 vs 55.9 with last month’s number being increased to 55.6, while the more important Services slipped below the key 50.0 level to 49.9 and missed expectations of 50.5, with last month’s data also being upgraded to 47.6, but remaining historically very low.

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The USDIndex has remained heavy, testing a new 32-month low at 90.05. EURUSD has concurrently been holding firm, breaching its 32-month highs at 1.2178, to push to 1.2210. USDJPY, now amid its fourth down day out of the last five, has ebbed to a five-week low at 103.25. As we have noted before, real interest rate differentials are imparting a bias for the Yen to gain on the Dollar, albeit modestly. The nine-month lows, seen last month at 103.17-19, are back in scope. There looks to have been a degree of position trimming in CADJPY, which has been a popular long lately, being a strong correlate of the reflation theme in global markets. The cross is showing a decline of nearly 0.5% on the day so far. USDCAD, meanwhile, has lifted back above 1.2700 to 1.2745 after yesterday printing a 32-month low at 1.2686. While oil prices have been remaining perky, with Brent benchmark prices sustaining gains above $50, upside momentum has been abating. OPEC supply is set to increase, in addition to recovering supply out of Libya, while Norwegian and US supply are also increasing. There are also expectations for Iran to strike a deal on its nuclear program with the Biden administration, which could lower sanctions that have been stifling oil exports out of the country. These supply fundamentals, along with the demand-sapping virus containing measures in many of the major northern hemisphere economies, look to be setting up oil prices for a year-end correction after six consecutive up weeks. Elsewhere, the Pound has remained buoyant, with markets factoring in prospects for the EU and UK to reach a future relationship deal as soon as this week. There hasn’t been much news from the negotiating teams, though this in itself is being taken as a sure sign that progress is being made after the EU’s von der Leyen said that a “narrow” path to agreement has come into view. Cable has printed a 12-day high at 1.3519.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 17th December 2020.

Sterling & the BoE Preview.

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GBPUSD, Weekly

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened for its two-day December policy meeting yesterday, with the announcement out today (12:00 GMT). No changes to policy settings is the universal expectation, which would leave the repo rate at 0.10% and the QE total unchanged at GBP 875 bln. The central bank is clearly keeping a close eye on Brexit talks, and with a deal looking much more likely than at the same time last week, the central bank is likely to hold its horses, especially as vaccinations offer a bright spot for next year. Things can still go wrong though and the BoE will want to keep its options open for now. A no-deal situation would put the BoE into crisis-response mode, and would increase the chance of the central bank implementing a negative interest rate policy. Still, the BoE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) affirmed on Friday that UK banks are able to withstand the shock of no-deal on top of the impact of the Covid pandemic. For many a negative interest rate policy in the UK is not the antidote and should be kept firmly in the toolbox, however, as with the protracted Brexit Withdrawal agreement and the down-to-the-wire trade deal (or no-deal), anything is possible and never rule anything out.

Sterling has the bid currently and expectations are that something will be agreed and the final “fishing” issue can be put to bed. Last week, EU sources talked of a deal by December 18 (tomorrow), which still provides enough time for draft legislation to be approved by year end. Then earlier this week stories started to circulate of “partial” ratification. The fudge continues.

Sterling remains bid versus the weaker USD and JPY, on the back foot versus the Antipodeans, moving higher versus the CAD & CHF and back to test 90.00 versus the Euro. The new 2020 high for Cable and the break and breach of 1.3500 could see an extension to initial 1.3680 and 1.4000 in the weeks ahead, should the Greenback continue to unwind. Key support is the 20-week moving average at 1.3100 and the 200-week moving average at the key psychological 1.3000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 18th December 2020.

FX Update – December 18 – USD stops falling, Brexit flounders on fish?

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EURUSD, H1

The Dollar has finally found its feet, concomitantly with global equity markets coming off the boil. Some market narratives have pinned this on news that Pfizer will under-deliver vaccine doses to the US next week, though the Moderna vaccine will reportedly win FDA approval today/Saturday. News that the US is blacklisting more Chinese companies has been in the mix, too. The wind down into the Christmas and new year holiday period may be a further factor, which can inspire investors to put on hedges, if not trim positions.

The USDIndex has lifted back towards 90.0, which follows a four consecutive days run lower that culminated yesterday with a 32-month low at 89.62. EURUSD has ebbed, although only modestly, to the the mid 1.2250s. The commodity-correlating dollar bloc currencies have softened, while USDJPY has lifted back to the mid 103.00s after posting a nine-month low yesterday at 102.88. The BoJ extended its Covid measures, including increased asset purchases and a corporate lending facility, out to next September from March, while leaving the major monetary policy settings unchanged. This met market expectations, while Governor Kuroda reaffirmed the central bank’s pledge to ease monetary policy further if necessary.

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Elsewhere, the Pound has been in correction mode after a four-day ascent. Cable has tumbled back toward 1.3500 after peaking at a 31-month high yesterday at 1.3622, though continues to show a net gain of well over 2% from week-ago levels. UK PM Johnson spoke with the EU’s von der Leyen late yesterday, and reportedly warned that negotiations would collapse unless the EU moves “substantially.” Fishing rights remain a sticking point, while the state aid issue has also resurfaced as a difficulty, though it’s difficult to know exactly where negotiations are, and it might be that the UK government is tactically maintaining the maximum threat to leave without a deal, sensing that Brussels is genuinely worried about what an untethered UK might do. Reuters cited EU sources, meanwhile, saying that a deal is possible in the coming days, though difficult, while Ireland’s deputy PM Varadkar said both sides were edging towards a deal, and EU chief negotiator Barnier said that a deal by as soon as today is “difficult but possible.” The European Parliament yesterday demanded that a text of an EU-UK agreement must be made available by this Sunday for there to be sufficient time for them to scrutinize it before a ratification vote ahead the December-31 deadline.

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Later there is Canadian Retail sales and the US current account and leading index indicator ahead of the December Quadruple witching where stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire simultaneously. The last big trading day for many.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 21st December 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the end of the week ahead will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess. The most of the central banks maintained their accommodative policy settings so far. However the near term outlook still remains challenging but the prospect of vaccination programs in Europe, UK and US and for the UK the chances of a Brexit deal mean there are both upside and downside risks for next year, with the outlook unusually uncertain. News that the US is blacklisting more Chinese companies remains in the mix as well.

Monday – 21 December 2020

PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidances on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.

Tuesday – 22 December 2020

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The preliminary Retail sales are seen diving at -0.6% m/m in November from 1.4% last month.

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Gross Domestic Product is seen stable at 15.5% q/q growth in Q3 and -9.6% y/y. Like in the Eurozone, production numbers expected to remain pretty good, even though the rebound started to slow down due to the November lockdowns.

Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A slight boost is seen in Q3 GDP growth to 33.2% from 33.1%. The revised Q3 GDP figures should still show a quarter with dramatic rebounds for residential investment and equipment spending to notably robust levels, and out-sized Q2-Q3 gyration in both exports and imports that left big Q3 gains, and hefty recoveries in consumer spending. Government spending received an initial lift in Q2 from spending with the CARES Act, though most of this spending was transfer payments that don’t enter government purchases, and we saw a Q3 pull-back in government spending that should extend through Q4 and into 2021.

Wednesday – 23 December 2020

Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The preliminary trade deficit of Australia is currently at $7,456M.

Personal Spending and Consumption (USD, GMT 13:30) – Personal consumption is expected to show a -0.2% headline decline in November after a -0.7% drop in October. The projected November income decline reflects a 0.6% rise in compensation, but an ongoing unwind of jobless benefits and weakness in rental and proprietor’s income, as the April income boost from the CARES Act continues to unwind.

Michigan Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment climbed 4.5 points to 81.4 in the preliminary December reading. That’s much better than expected but the move back up to the 89.1 level from March has been restrained by various headwinds, with the spike in the virus and renewed lockdowns the current difficulty.

Thursday – 24 December 2020

Christmas Eve – Early close for Major Markets.
Durable Goods and Defence orders (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.4% in November with a 2.9% climb in transportation orders, after a 1.4% headline orders rise in October that included a 1.4% transportation orders gain. The durable orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 0.7%, after a 1.3% September rise. A defense orders gain is pegged at 4.2%, following a 24.0% October bounce. Boeing orders rose to 27 planes in November after two months at zero. The vehicle assembly rate is seen ticking up to 10.7 mln in November from 10.6 mln in October, versus a 0.1 mln trough in April. Durable shipments should be flat, and inventories should be 0.3%.

Tokyo CPI and unemployment rate (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected stable presenting a decline at -0.7% y/y in December ex Fresh Food. The unemployment rate is also stable at 3.1% for November.

Friday – 25 December 2020

Christmas Day – Nearly all major Markets closed.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 22nd December 2020.

EU vaccinations & Brexit talks.

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Τhe Dollar has traded moderately firmer, and the Pound has drifted lower, though the US currency has remained comfortably above its Monday highs while the UK currency has remained well off the lows it saw yesterday.

News that the EU has rejected the UK’s latest offer on fishing (which was a 35% reduction in the EU’s fishing quota from UK waters following a five-year transition period) weighed on the Pound. Brussels is reportedly demanding only a 25% quota reduction. Politico-Europe reported that UK PM Johnson and EU Commission President von der Leyen had a phone conversation yesterday to discuss a compromise on fish, and while the UK’s latest offer appears to have been rejected by the EU, it is positive that both sides are still talking. At the same time France and the UK are negotiating a way out of the current border disruption, with truckers to be tested at the borders. There doesn’t seem to be an agreement on the details – i.e. who pays where for what – but again, there are at least discussions on how to move forward, which helped sentiment to stabilise somewhat.

It is still expected that a deal will materialise before the looming year-end deadline, given the win-win versus lose-lose stakes, and given that intense discussions are continuing, along with reports from sources close to the negotiating teams that a landing zone for an accord is visible. Another consideration that has come to light is that EU law does not stipulate that ratification by Parliament is imperative and that an agreed deal could be applied provisionally (as highlighted by the BBC’s Katya Alder). This is important to know after the European Parliament’s deadline for the text of deal to be presented by Sunday just gone was missed. As for ratification in UK parliament, members are on standby to be recalled from their Christmas recess, and a deal could be ratified in just a single day given the government’s strong majority.

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European stock markets rebounded after a mostly negative session in Asia. US equity index futures recouped earlier declines, and were near net unchanged as of the early London afternoon. News that the US Congress has passed the $900 bln Covid-19 relief package boosted sentiment, along with news that the EU will commence its Covid-19 vaccination program just after Christmas.

EU vaccinations to start after Christmas. Regulators cleared the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine yesterday and the EU has already pre-ordered EUR 200 bln of the vaccine earlier in the year and this month also acted on the option to purchase additional EUR 100 bln that was part of the original deal. Not all of these doses are immediately available as production is slower than demand. The 300 million also won’t be sufficient for the 450 million EU inhabitants and officials will regret that the EU didn’t act on the offer in July to pre-order 500 million. Still, at that point it was not clear that Pfizer would win the race and as pre-orders were a large incentive to speed up developments, the EU decided on a wider spread, with provisional orders for more than 2 bln doses of candidate vaccines from a range of companies. Next in line is Moderna, with the European Medicines Agency set to meet on January 6 to discuss the vaccine, for which the EU has placed orders for 160 million. Still, it will take a while until vaccinations are rolled out properly – not just in the EU and if the virus mutates and becomes more infectious that also means a higher uptake is necessary to reach herd immunity.

In currency market, GBPUSD stabilised after rolling the roller coaster on Monday. Although GBPUSD managed to rise again to near 1.3500 overnight, the rise is seen to be quite limited for now. Cable found support the past few hours above 1.3400 after it tested daily pivot at 1.3390. The 50-period SMA and 200-period SMA clashed at 1.3400. If daily pivot is rejected then S1 1.3266 will be a key support. Monday’s highest price of 1.3498 remains a significant resistance followed by a pivot of R1 at 1.3577. The Bulls need strong momentum above 1.3500 to maintain their dominance.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 23rd December 2020.

Coca-Cola cuts staff.

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The decline in sales due to the coronavirus outbreak and the operations that some governments have applied to many local restaurants and entertainment venues that operate at a significantly reduced capacity, have led Coca-Cola to consider the idea of eliminating 2,200 positions of work in all the headquarters that the company has around the world. At the end of last year, there were around 10,400 employees in the United States, of which another 1,200 were cut, representing approximately 12% of the workforce cuts, while in Atlanta where the company is based, 500 jobs will be eliminated. The company had announced this plan during the summer, when it also announced that it would offer acquisitions to 4,000 workers in the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico.

For the third quarter, the company’s revenues decreased 9% to $ 8.7 billion, while in the session on Tuesday, December 15, Coca-Cola shares rose 1.77% with a value of $54, $22, at the last close the company was $ 57.27 , 20.90% below its 52-week high of $ 60.13. Sales reflected an increase of -4.5%, where the company’s growth estimates for the current quarter and the next are -6.8% and -2%respectively, and the year-on-year growth of quarterly revenues decreased by 9% to 33.47B.

The company could continue to experience consequences in the long term because the coronavirus pandemic may leave some side effects, such as people increasingly turning away from sugary drinks. However, when the pandemic ceases and people can feel freer to leave their homes, the consumption of beverages in restaurants may increase; in any case, Coca-Cola continues to be the leader in the non-alcoholic beverages market, therefore it can be expected that during the next few years its annual growth rate could be 6.8%.

Pending its next earnings report, Coca-Cola is projected to report earnings of $ 0.41 per share, representing a 6.82% year-on-year decrease, which could lead to its consensus estimate calling for quarterly revenue of $ 8.69 billion, less than in the prior year period, while full-year earnings estimates could be $ 1.88 per share, with revenue of approximately $ 33.06 billion.

Currently, the price of Coca-Cola follows an ascending channel although it presents a double top with failure of highs at its level of 54.00 very close to Fibo 78.6% at 54.79, the price could approach the Fibo level 38.2% at 51.80 to break this support, maybe pull back to it and continue to the lower supports in the 80-period SMA that is only slightly above the 61.8% Fibo level at 50.82, coinciding with the bullish guideline of the channel. Breaking these supports would end up closing the gap at the 61.8% Fibo level coinciding with the psychological level at 50.08.

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European stock markets rebounded after a mostly negative session in Asia. US equity index futures recouped earlier declines, and were near net unchanged as of the early London afternoon. News that the US Congress has passed the $900 bln Covid-19 relief package boosted sentiment, along with news that the EU will commence its Covid-19 vaccination program just after Christmas.

EU vaccinations to start after Christmas. Regulators cleared the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine yesterday and the EU has already pre-ordered EUR 200 bln of the vaccine earlier in the year and this month also acted on the option to purchase additional EUR 100 bln that was part of the original deal. Not all of these doses are immediately available as production is slower than demand. The 300 million also won’t be sufficient for the 450 million EU inhabitants and officials will regret that the EU didn’t act on the offer in July to pre-order 500 million. Still, at that point it was not clear that Pfizer would win the race and as pre-orders were a large incentive to speed up developments, the EU decided on a wider spread, with provisional orders for more than 2 bln doses of candidate vaccines from a range of companies. Next in line is Moderna, with the European Medicines Agency set to meet on January 6 to discuss the vaccine, for which the EU has placed orders for 160 million. Still, it will take a while until vaccinations are rolled out properly – not just in the EU and if the virus mutates and becomes more infectious that also means a higher uptake is necessary to reach herd immunity.

In currency market, GBPUSD stabilised after rolling the roller coaster on Monday. Although GBPUSD managed to rise again to near 1.3500 overnight, the rise is seen to be quite limited for now. Cable found support the past few hours above 1.3400 after it tested daily pivot at 1.3390. The 50-period SMA and 200-period SMA clashed at 1.3400. If daily pivot is rejected then S1 1.3266 will be a key support. Monday’s highest price of 1.3498 remains a significant resistance followed by a pivot of R1 at 1.3577. The Bulls need strong momentum above 1.3500 to maintain their dominance.

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Aldo Weidner Zapien,
Market Analyst
HF Office of Education – Mexico

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  • Posts: 1472
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Date : 24th December 2020.

FX News Today | 24 December 2020.

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Wall Street rallied overnight, despite some disappointing US data. Stimulus hopes and the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines supported the market. Energy, financials and healthcare sectors outperformed, while tech issues lagged. Core European bourses were higher, with the GER30 up 1.26%, and the UK100 underperforming, adding 0.66%, though held back by a firmer Pound. Treasury yields climbed amid bearish momentum from European bonds. Thinning holiday conditions exacerbated the moves and the break of key levels added to the selloff.

Gilts led a sell off in EGBs amid rumors that the UK and the EU are getting close to a post-Brexit trade deal. With Europe still firmly in the grip of Covid-19, the chance to avoid a disruptive no-deal scenario clearly would be extremely helpful, although even with an agreement no-tariff trade barriers will go up at the start of next year, which will add to an already difficult situation.

UK, EU press conferences likely expected today. The timing on press conferences may slip by a couple of hours.

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EUR – stabilized at 1.22
GBP– spiked top 1.3570 a breath below R1
JPY – in a triangle at 103.55. PP at 103.50 and R1 103.70
CAD – gains ground again amid risk appetite and Us inventories – currently at 1.2847
AUD –Currently at 0.7590
GOLD – gains some ground to to $1879 high level
USOil – climbs to 48.60 as US inventory draw, Brexit deal hopes boost risk appetite
Today – Nearly all stock markets have an early closed for the extended Christmas weekend and there are no key data releases until January 4, with Brexit and virus developments the only topics to interest investors until then. Only Tokyo inflation tonight.

Biggest (FX) Mover – GBPCHF (0.61% as of 09:50 GMT) – It rallied to R1 to 1.2058. Fast MAs and BB still point upwards while the asset manage to break yesterday’s peak. Technical indicators hold positive, however they are also flat suggesting a potential consolidation H1 ATR 0.00174, Daily ATR 0.01315

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 29th December 2020.

Market Update – December 29 – The final few days.

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EURUSD, H1

US stock futures are in the green with gains of 0.45% to 0.65% after President Trump signed the $2.3 tln spending bill that will fund the government through to September 2021 and which also includes the $900 bln pandemic relief package. Further supporting investor sentiment has been the Brexit deal — while not ideal for either side, it eliminates the hard Brexit result that was most feared. These factors, and the positive developments on vaccines, should smooth out trading over the rest of 2020, though thin holiday trading could make for some choppy price swings. All three major US markets closed at new all-time highs yesterday.

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Earlier, the JPY225 closed up an impressive 2.7% and closed over 27,000 for the first time since 1991. End of year portfolio rebalancing, profit taking and accounting all conspire to boost equities in the final trading days of the year. The 161.8 Fibonacci extension of the March sell-off sits at 28,800. The MACD has a rising signal line and histogram, the weekly ATR remains over the 500 point and although the RSI has been technically in the overbought range for over 6 weeks, it is still moving higher and currently trades around 78.00. The JPY225 is one of the best performing assets for 2020 of all the ones we monitor; for more details of what the long term Weekly & Monthly charts might be suggesting for the next few months, join me tomorrow in our “2021 – The Year Ahead in Charts” webinar. You can register here:

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In the FX markets, Dollar, Yen & Sterling dropped against most currencies, with USDJPY falling back to 103.71. EURUSD is back to 1.2250 territory and the commodity currencies also remain bid, with AUDUSD touching 0.7600 earlier, the Kiwi at the daily R1 (0.7130) and USDCAD spiking below S1 to touch 1.2807. Crude prices are up from overnight lows, amid the prospect of new supply from OPEC+ members. The front end USOIL future is currently trading north of $48.00 per barrel. Gold rotates through the daily pivot point at $1881.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 30th December 2020.

FX Update – December 30 – USD slips again.

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AUDUSD, H1

The USDIndex posted down to 89.65 earlier, close to the 32-month low from December 17 at 89.62, before recovering to 89.80 in low volume trading. EURUSD concurrently printed a 32-month high at 1.2295 before turning back to 1.2255, and USDJPY saw a nine-day low, at 103.26, and remains below 103.30. The pair’s near-10-month low, seen on December 17th, is at 102.88. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars posted respective 30- and 32-month highs against their US peer. AUDJPY and NZDJPY also saw new trend highs. The Canadian Dollar also traded firmer, but remains comfortably below recent trend highs. Oil prices remain in a consolidation, below recent near-nine-month highs. Base metal prices also remain off recent trend highs. The Pound recouped some of the declines seen over the last couple of days, with Cable lifting to a two-day high at 1.3357. The pair’s 31-month high, which was seen before Christmas, is at 1.3626. EURGBP concurrently ebbed to a two-day low at 0.9055.

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Intra-day the AUD is the strongest and the USD and CHF are the weakest. AUDUSD holds at 0.7650 around R2, up some 0.56%, and AUDCHF trades up over 0.69% at 0.6768 from last night’s close at 0.6718.

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Later today there are US pending Home Sales which are projected unchanged in November at 128.9, after falling -1.1% in October from 130.3 in September. The only other key data point is the Chicago PMI index which is expected to slip further to 57.0 in December after dropping -2.9 points to 58.2 in November. This would be a third straight monthly drop. Most of the regional PMIs have declined on the month amid the surge in virus cases and increasingly stringent lockdowns. The index was at 48.2 a year ago.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 31st December 2020.

Market Update – 2020 Day 366 – More grief for the Greenback.

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USDIndex, Weekly

My diary tells me it’s day 366 of 2020. I started my WFH campaign on March 11, when the USDIndex was trading at 96.40 and on its way to 103.80 by March 23. Today, as we close an unprecedented year, the USDIndex has posted another major-trend low, at 89.51, a level last traded in April 2018.

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The Dollar has continued to correlate inversely with global stock market direction, with weakness today being concomitant with the MSCI Asia Pacific rising to a new record high in holiday-thinned conditions. The USA30 yesterday closed at a fresh record high on Wall Street. Oil and other commodities have, in contrast, remained directionally subdued. EURUSD remained buoyant on dollar weakness, although has so far remained just off from yesterday’s near-33-month peak. USDJPY remained heavy, though above yesterday’s two-week low at 102.96. Cable trades healthily above 1.3600 at 1.3660 in low, low volume trading. Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, which are living up to expectations for being outperformers in post-Covid recovery trade, rallied to fresh 32-month highs against the US Dollar. USDCAD edged out a 13-day low at 1.2734. The lack of direction in oil prices over that last 10 days or so has rendered the Canadian Dollar the underperformer of the dollar bloc pack.

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Oil prices re-entered pre-Covid crisis ranges in recent weeks, while a combination of increasing OPEC and non-OPEC supply swelled global inventories, and demand-sapping Covid lockdowns and restrictions across many major economic areas in the northern hemisphere have taken the legs out of the bull trend.

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Elsewhere, Bitcoin rallied to yet another record peak north of $29,000. Cryptocurrencies look likely see much more upside amid signs that long-term institutional investment managers have been buying and holding bitcoin and other leading cryptocurrencies as an inflationary hedge. Assets held by Grayscale Investments, the world’s biggest crypto asset manager, is widely cited as a bellwether indicator of this, as it allows professional investors exposure to crypto currencies without having to store the assets. Grayscale reported yesterday that it had $19 bln in crypto assets under management, up from $16.4 bln last week.

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European stock markets are lower – those that are open – with the UK100 down -1.3%, and the IBEX -0.5%. The 10-year Gilt yield is down -0.8 bp at 0.202%. A very quiet day with many European markets already closed for the extended New Year weekend. Many will be happy to leave a difficult year behind, but as vaccination programs continue it is becoming clear that it will take a while before they really have an impact. For now case numbers in many European countries still look pretty bad and it is likely to stay that way for another week, as caution was relaxed over the holiday period. European stocks are pretty near record highs as the year ends as there are also companies benefiting from stay-home orders and investors look ahead to the expected recovery in 2021.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 4th January 2021.

Focus on the Data, but Politics Still in Play.

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After last week’s focus on US stimulus, Brexit, vaccine roll outs, virus worries, and lockdowns, attention will turn back to fundamentals with heavy data slates around the world. However, politics will still be an issue near term. On the immediate radar are the runoff elections in Georgia which will determine control of the Senate, which in turn will set the legislative agenda for Congress. In the UK, it will be adjustment time after leaving the EU single market, with many Brexit details still to be worked out. Asia’s economic data should continue to reflect the strength of the recovery even at a slightly more moderate pace.

It’s back to work for US markets, kicking off 2021 after the USA30 and USA500 closed out 2020 at record highs. Combined, the major indexes posted 102 fresh peaks through the year. Compared to March lows, the USA30 was 64% higher, the USA500 up 67% and the USA100 a remarkable 88% firmer. Moreover, the rally saw a further broadening of gains as shares of firms that would benefit from a return to normal saw continued buying interest. Concurrently, yields richened in the few weeks leading up to year end after the 10-year and 30-year rates failed to eclipse 1% and 1.75% levels, respectively.

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Wall Street and global stock markets added to already impressive gains in December, fueled by the rollout of vaccines that are widely seen as driving a robust recovery in 2021 after the volatile path seen in 2020. Adding to the optimism was the passage of a fresh stimulus bill in the US and a Christmas Eve Brexit agreement. The accumulation of upbeat developments continued to overshadow the challenges facing the economy in the very near term, as surging infections triggered increasingly stringent lockdowns in the US, Europe and parts of Asia, suggesting a rocky start to the year for global growth. Meanwhile, bond markets continued to take a more measured view of the growth outlook, as the uptick in yields since March has sharply undershot the magnitude of the upward trajectory in equities. The tension between dismal near term and sunny medium term outlooks will continue to drive volatility in equity, bond and currency trading as the New Year begins.

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Vaccines rolled out in the UK, US and Europe during December, providing the market with a light at the end of the tunnel as infections, hospitalizations and restrictions soared. Front line health care workers and the elderly have priority, but expectations have grown that wider availability will be the case by the middle of the year, if not a bit earlier. Japan will begin to vaccinate in late February, according to a Bloomberg report that cited local media sources.

Meanwhile, President Trump signed a $2.3 tln omnibus spending bill as the month of December came to a close, averting a partial government shutdown and funding the government through September. More importantly for the market, the bill includes $900 bln pandemic relief measures that will add PPP funds, boost extended unemployment benefits and the eviction moratorium, support the airlines, and increase money for vaccine distribution. The bill provides $600 checks to individuals. Congress indicated it would review Section 230 which advantages big tech, and will look into voter fraud issues.

There are a number of key economic reports on tap this week, including ISMs and vehicle sales, though culminating with the December employment data. The Fed is back in focus too with the FOMC minutes and Fedspeak due.

The December jobs report should garner extra attention given the non-trivial risk of a drop in payrolls as restrictions ratcheted up on the spikes in virus infections since November and the delayed stimulus. Of course, the service sector again suffered the brunt of the restrictions, but that sector has already been hollowed by the spring shutdowns, so weakness may be tempered. Hence, a 100k December nonfarm payroll increase is expected, after gains of 245k in November, 610k in October, and 711k in September. We also note that initial claims are not flashing warnings signs about employment in December — claims fell -19k to 787k in the Christmas week, extending the -86k plunge to 806k in the prior week. The jobless rate should tick up to 6.8% from 6.7% in November, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings should increase 0.2%.

Fed policy will be on view again after the holiday hiatus. The FOMC released the minutes to its December 15-16 meeting the results of which were uneventful as the 0% to 0.25% rate band was maintained, and there were no changes to QE. However, the minutes will be scrutinized for insights into the general thinking of policymakers. Note there is a new voting rotation this year, and the new crew of Evans, Bostic, and Daly will tilt to the dovish side, with just Barkin more of a centrist. And Fedspeak this week will include the aforementioned doves. Also on tap are Williams, Mester, Harker, Bullard, and VC Clarida.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 5th January 2021.

Market Update – January 5 – Georgia on everybody’s mind.

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USDCAD, Oil & Gold

The Dollar has been trading steadily so far today after yesterday rebounding quite sharply from 33-month lows. This has come amid a backdrop of sputtering stock markets, with narratives ascribing today’s two runoff elections in Georgia, which have existential implications for the incoming Biden administration (as the result will decide whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate), alongside the constant rise in positive Covid tests and associated restrictions, as providing excuses for markets to correct.

The USDIndex has settled above the trend low seen yesterday at 89.42. EURUSD has concurrently settled lower, in the mid-to-upper 1.2200s, after yesterday foraying above 1.2300. USDJPY has settled around 103.0, and the Pound ebbed modestly lower as market participants continue to digest the UK-EU deal. The Aussie and Kiwi Dollars are showing gains over 0.5%, but remain below their respective highs from yesterday.

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The Canadian Dollar, meanwhile, recouped some of the ground it lost yesterday during a sharp drop in oil prices. Oil prices steadied today after yesterday seeing a sharp correction after posting 11-month highs, which in our view shouldn’t have been too surprising, what with the demand destruction being caused by the increasing Covid lockdown measures being taken in Europe and other major northern hemisphere nations, alongside increasing supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, and with crude prices having already returned to pre-pandemic levels. USOil lifted back above $48.00 to $48.50 after tumbling by just over 5% from yesterday’s high at $49.80, just shy of the key $50.00. USDCAD rebounded by over a big figure from the 33-month low the pair saw yesterday, at 1.2664, though has since dropped back around the 1.2750 area. Bitcoin has settled after whippy price action yesterday, and remains over 8% down on its record high, as GOLD tests $1950.00, an area last visited November 9th, the day the yellow metal lost over 7%.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 6th January 2021.

Europe and UK risks after the deal.

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The last two weeks were thin on data and full of trading holidays, but the last minute agreement on a Brexit deal and virus developments were key events and will be decisive for growth and central bank policy over the next months at least. The Brexit deal secured frictionless goods trade, but didn’t cover financial services, which has already led to some shifts. The sharp rise in Covid-19 case numbers over the holiday period and the resulting tightening and/or extension of restrictions meanwhile will put fresh pressure on economic growth and thus keep economies reliant on fiscal and central bank support.

A Brexit deal materialized on Christmas Eve, and has since been ratified by the UK parliament and unanimously approved by all 27 EU ambassadors. The deal took effect on January 1, and in the Eurozone is operating on a provisional basis until the EU parliament formerly ratifies it. The new “Trade and Cooperation Agreement” provides tariff and quota free trading of goods between the EU and UK. For fishing there are transitional arrangements, but in general EU law will cease to apply in the UK, and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice will end. The biggest hurdles to a deal being reached were the level playing field rules and state aid issues, which were overcome with the principal of “managed divergence”, which gives both sides the right to a review and retaliation mechanism if they believe the other side has gained an unfair competitive advantage.

Financial services are still in limbo though, despite the trade deal. The agreement struck between the EU and the UK, last week ensured tariff and quota free trade in goods, but the UK’s important financial services industry still doesn’t have clarification on what exactly will change in the future, as the deal doesn’t cover financial services. Some area are covered by “equivalence” assessments, but not all. Both sides hope to get a memorandum of understanding in place by the end of March, but that won’t be as high profile and extensive as the trade deal. Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority was forced to announce last week that it would temporarily alter its rules to ease fears of market turbulence in interest rate swap trades at the start of this year. The EU has so far not granted equivalence to the UK market to help smooth cross-border transactions and the FCA will temporarily allow London-based branches of European investment banks to trade on EU venues, as long as they are trading for EU clients. The relief will not apply to the firms’ trades on behalf of non-EU clients or their own proprietary trades and the measure will be reviewed on March 31.

Share trading is also shifting and with companies not really expecting equivalence rulings to materialise may were prepared with big shifts reported for yesterday’s trade. An FT article (paywall) highlighted that on the first trading day of 2021 “nearly €6bn of EU share dealing shifted away from the City to facilities in European capitals”. This may not be the city’s biggest area of revenue, but it may give a flavor of what is to come. The FT also highlighted that EU regulators yesterday “withdrew registration of six UK-based credit rating agencies and four trade repositories — data warehouses that provide authorities with information on derivatives and securities financing trades. EU companies and investors will now have to use EU-based entities.”

Meanwhile, the UK is back in the strictest lockdown since March last year and despite the rollout of vaccines, it may don’t expect restrictions to be lifted before the end of February. Germany is also extending its lockdown, with the hospitality sector and non-essential shops already closed for a while and now set to remain shut until the end of the month at least. Under discussion are also further restrictions of movement in areas were incident rates are particularly high. It may be the result of the new and more infectious virus mutation, or just the natural result of a more relaxed attitude over the holiday period, but it is clear that vaccination programs will take a while to have sufficient impact to get economies back to normal.

Against that background data releases looked already out of date.

The final December UK manufacturing PMI may have been revised slightly higher, to a 57.5 headline in the final reading yesterday, but like the German numbers the data already look outdated considering subsequent developments.

German jobless numbers came in better than expected in December readings released today, with the sa unemployment total unexpectedly falling -37K over the month, despite the tightening of lockdown restrictions last month that saw restaurants, hotels and non-essential shops close once again. Expectations had been for a rise in the jobless total as well as the jobless rate, but in the event the sa rate remained steady at 6.1%. However, the fact that official numbers haven’t exploded is largely due to government wage support and job retention schemes, which have helped companies to hang on to staff. That is a costly exercise and not all companies will survive once government support ends and the ECB also starts to tightening policy. That means the real impact on the labour market from the pandemic will only become apparent over time and much later in the year.

ECB waiting for fiscal stimulus after extending PEPP & Brexit deal takes pressure of BoE

The EU has finally cleared the next medium term budget and with it the pandemic recovery program that will be jointly financed and should go some way to get the economy back on track. In the best case scenario, the ECB is pretty much on hold for now, although clearly if there is Brexit chaos or the virus situation doesn’t improve, ECB officials will be ready to step in with additional measures.

Meanwhile in UK, developments could also lead to renewed speculation that the BoE will have to step in again, although the Brexit deal removed any immediate pressure on the central bank to consider negative rates. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee left official rates unchanged at the meeting in December, but extended the Term Funding Scheme by six months, while focusing on flexibility in the asset purchase program. Should market functioning worsen materially again, the Bank of England could increase purchases, but at the same time, there is flexibility to slow the pace of purchases later if the economy recovers as planned next year. Fiscal policy is already stepping in again to get companies and employees through this latest crisis and clearly with the budget deficit rising sharply BoE support will be needed to keep financing conditions favourable, even in the best case scenario.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 7th January 2021.

Big Surprise from Germany & US data Preview.

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EURUSD, H4

German manufacturing orders jumped 2.3% m/m in November, which unexpectedly continued the pretty impressive rebound that the sector has seen since the last lockdown. Expectations had been for a slight correction from the 3.3% rise in October, but in the event the inflow continued at a robust pace, with domestic orders rising 1.6% m/m and foreign orders 2.9% m/m. The annual rate is now at 6.4% y/y – based on the seasonally adjusted series, and thus clearly above pre-virus levels. This is of course data that preceded the latest lockdown, although it is expected that the renewed tightening of virus restrictions won’t hit production too much, even if it means further hardship for the services sector. The latter also means that there still is the risk of a technical recession despite the impressive orders number. Indeed, part of the surge in orders may be due to precautionary stock building in the UK ahead of the official Brexit date and that could mean a drop back in orders at the start of this year as companies reduce stockpiles.

US Initial jobless claims preview: Initial claims are expected to slip -7,000 to 780,000 in the week ended January 2 after a -19,000 drop to 787,000 from 806,000 at the end of December. Claims have been elevated in recent weeks amid the surge in virus cases and the more stringent lockdowns have seen renewed layoffs. Additionally, the holidays have been distorting. Remember, seasonal adjustments were switched in September, and the usual seasonal rise in NSA claims through the holidays may be lifting the reported SA data given the unusually high level of claims. Claims are expected to average 835,000 in December, following averages of 749,000 in November, 786,000 in October, and 855,000 in September. The 892,000 December BLS survey week reading exceeded recent survey week readings of 748,000 in November, 797,000 in October, and 866,000 in September. Expectations are still for a December payroll rise around 100,000 though risk is for a weaker print, and potentially a decline, (Barclays have a -50,000 figure) especially given the -123k decline in the ADP report yesterday.

US trade balance preview: the deficit is expected to widen to -$67.2 bln in November, a 14-year high, after edging out to -$63.1 bln in October, and was at a 12-year high of -$64.9 bln in August. We expect exports to increase 0.7% to $183.2 bln, while imports rise 2.2% to $250.4 bln. The November petroleum price rebound has likely boosted both exports and imports of petroleum. We saw November pull-backs in vehicle trade after huge increases in every month since June, but large declines in each prior month since February. We expect a sustained high November bilateral goods deficit between the US and China of about -$30 bln as businesses rebuild inventories. For the year, we expect a -$55.9 bln average deficit, versus a -$48.1 bln average in 2019.

US ISM services index preview: we expect the index to dip to 55.0 in December. This would be a third straight monthly decline as service sector activity slows, especially with the delayed stimulus, the surge in virus cases and renewed shutdowns. The index had surged to 58.1 in July, an 11-year high, amid reopenings of the economy. It was at 54.9 last December. Producer sentiment has remained firm despite the fall’s moderation as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 11th January 2021.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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2021 has started and even though it is set to be far better than 2020, January remains as stormy and volatile as its predecessor. In the week ahead, the markets are expected to continue to buy into the recovery story. In regards to data, this will be a week of increased attention to the global inflation releases and production numbers out of the UK and China. The markets also remain focused on potential further lockdowns and tighter restrictions.

Monday – 11 January 2021

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery broadened further, as manufacturing sentiment measures were firm and a key non-manufacturing sentiment measure remained elevated. CPI is expected to accelerate to in December as well with a 0.1% y/y pace in December following the 0.5% decline last month.

BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 15:00)

Tuesday – 12 January 2021

BoE’s Broadbent speech (GBP, GMT 10:00)
Fed’s Brainard speech (USD, GMT 14:35)
Fed’s Rosengren speech (USD, GMT 19:00)

Wednesday – 13 January 2021

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) –The December inflation reports should reveal a big energy-led gain for CPI with a moderate core price rise, and big increases for 0.4%m/m growth which would result in a 1.3% headline y/y increase.

Thursday – 14 January 2021

Imports and Exports (CNY, GMT N/A) – Consumer demand picked up and exports also climbed, as trade flows resumed after the weakness in Q2 in China. This is expected to be confirmed also in December’s release as imports expected to raise by 0.5% and exports by 15%.

Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of January 9 should remain elevated, though a -17k down-tick in the weekly pace to 770k has been assumed, after a -3k drop to 787k from 790k. Seasonal adjustment for initial claims was switched to being additive from multiplicative in September, and the usual seasonal rise in NSA claims through the holidays may be lifting the reported SA data with the new seasonal factors given the unusually high level of claims. We are likely also seeing a lift from expanding coronavirus restrictions.

Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:30)

Friday – 15 January 2021

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 00:30) – UK nations have gone into a ‘tier 5’ lockdown, the most restrictive level since the full lockdown of spring last year, although manufacturing, auto repair businesses, DIY and garden stores, remain open, along with food sellers. High street retail, aviation and other public transport, along with the hospitality sector, are bearing the brunt of the lockdown, as in other nations, although the percentage impact on GDP from these sectors being closed is bigger in the UK than most peers. The UK saw a bigger peak-to-trough GDP contraction than any other G20 nation in 2020 as a consequence of the national and global countermeasures taken to table Covid-19. With UK in lockdown season since November, November’s GDP figure expected to present a severe decline to 4.0% m/m with Manufacturing and industrial production at 0.7% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively from 1.7% m/m and 1.3% m/m in October.

US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) –A -0.2% December retail sales headline dip is forecasted with a -0.4% ex-autos decline, following respective November decreases of -1.1% and -0.9%. Unit vehicle sales rebounded in December, and this should support the auto dealer component. Typical strength is being undermined by rising coronavirus restrictions during the holiday shopping season.

Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.2% December PPI headline rise is anticipated with a 0.1% core price gain, following gains of 0.1% for both in November. As expected readings would result in a y/y headline PPI metric of 0.6%, down from 0.8% in November. A rebound in energy prices should boost the headline. Oil prices are rebounding after a fall pause and a bottom in April, thanks to a better supply-demand balance in the petroleum sector, and supply constraints for some sectors should remain problematic into Q1.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 12th January 2021.

Market Update – January 5 – Georgia on everybody’s mind.

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FX News Today

USD continues to bounce (Day 5), and Yields up significantly as virus worries escalate and political uncertainty swirls. Democrats lodge papers to impeach President Trump if the cabinet doesn’t act to remove him. Neither of which are likely to come to fruition but the symbolism is significant. Equities lower (TSLA -7.82% & TWTR -6.4%), Asian markets mixed (Japan flat). Bitcoin crashed 20% before recovering 50% of loss, Oil recovered & Gold remains pressured by strong Yields. Overnight – weak Japanese bank lending and the worst UK Retail Sales figures since 1995, +4.8% vs 5.9% & 7.7% in Dec.

USDIndex – 5th day higher from 33-mth low (89.15) and back over 90.00 but struggled over at 90.70 at 2-day high. Trades at 90.40 – PP 90.30 – S1 90.15, R1 90.65

EUR – 4th day lower – trades under 1.2200 (R1) – 1.2130 (S1) yesterday, for a 18-day low, back to 1.2160 now– PP – 1.2180. 3 Black Crows on Daily Chart completed.

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JPY – 5th day higher but stalled ahead of 104.50 (R2) yesterday – Trades at 104.12 (PP), R1 104.30, S1 103.92

GBP – down to 1.3450 (S1) yesterday. Back over 1.3500 and over R1 at 1.3555. PP 1.3510, R2 & 200Hr MA 1.3585

AUD – Under 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7660 – back to PP now 0.7725 – R1 0.7750, NZD – Down to 0.7150 yesterday – back to PP 0.7180, R1 0.7210 CAD – 1.2835 high yesterday – trades at 1.2745 (PP & 200MA) – R1 1.2800 CHF – Trades at 0.8900 – up from 3 yr lows on Wednesday at 0.8757. PP 0.8850

BTC – Major Volatility yesterday – plunged 20%+ to $29,800. Retraced over 50% of fall – Back to around $36,400.

GOLD – Tested 1820 as Yields rose – Trades at 1858 now, PP 1840 USOil – $52.70 high Friday – trades at $51.60 (R1) now – still elevated, after dip to $51.50.

USA500 – Closed down 25 (-0.66%) 3799 – USA500 FUTS now at 3805. 47 days north of 20SMA (3735).

Today – US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, BoE’s Broadbent, Fed’s Brainard, Kaplan, Mester, Rosengren, ECB’s de Cos

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.40%) Bounced from 200MA on open. Breached PP (0.6384) earlier and tested R1 (0.6400). Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 57 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remains south of 0 line this morning, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0050.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 13th January 2021.

FX Update – January 13 – USD & Yields stall their run, Politics swirls.

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FX News Today

USD reversed its 5 day run as Yields stalled too. House vote tonight to impeach President Trump, (YouTube have banned him for 7 days), Pence will not initiate the 25th Amendment to remove him. The symbolism is significant, no President has ever been impeached twice. Equities flat too (UBER +7.24%,TSLA +4.72%, FB -2.24%, GooGL & NFLX -1.00%) Asian markets also flat. GBP rallied after Bailey pushed back on Negative Interest Rates. Oil rallied over 1% after surprise inventory drawdowns peaked at $53.90, AUD pegged by possible RBA “push back” to strong AUD. Gold recovered $1850.

China reported its largest daily new COVID-19 cases in 5 months.

USDIndex – Back under 90.00 from rejection of 90.50 yesterday. Trades at 89.95 just over S3 – PP 90.40 – S3 89.90, S2 90.07

EUR – Recovered back over 1.2200 (R2) – Trades at 1.2215 now– PP – 1.2157. R3 1.2225 –

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JPY – Reverses under 104.000 – after rejection 104.50 on Monday. – Trades at 103.68 (200hr MA). – PP 103.90, S1 103.55

GBP – Big rally – spurred by USD weakness and Governor Bailey pushing back on Negative Interest Rates. Breached 1.3600 after multiple attempts – rallied to 1.3690 – PP 1.3585, R1 1.3668, R2 1.3715

AUD – Over 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7770 (R2) now. R1 0.7748 – NZD – Over 0.7200 yesterday to test 0.7240 (R3) now. r2 0.7215 CAD – back to test 1.2700 (S2) today as Oil rises – S1 1.2725, S3 1.2664 from Friday CHF – Trades back to 0.8850 (200hrMA) and under S3 (0.8865)- PP 0.8900

BTC – Back to around $34,600. – PP today 34,500, r1 36,600, s1 32,800

GOLD – Recovers over 1850 (PP) – Trades at 1860 (R1) – R2 1875, PP 1840 USOil – New 11-mth high $53.90 (R2) after surprise drawdown in private inventories (EIA data later). R3 $54.70, r1 53.55.

USA500 – Closed up 1.5 (+0.04%) 3800 – USA500 FUTS now at 3808. 48 days north of 20SMA (3740).

Today – EZ industrial production, US CPI, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bullard, Brainard, Harker, Clarida

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.23%) 5th day higher – Bounced from 200MA on open, testing 1.7625 now, key resistance 1.7650. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and north of 0 line from Monday open, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.023, Daily ATR 0.0125.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 18th January 2021.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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US elections will dominate the markets in the week again, as the inauguration of Joe Biden will take place on Wednesday with security having been stepped up. From data perspective is all about inflation next week from UK, EU, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. However eye will be on central banks with BoC, BoJ and ECB rate decision in the spotlight.

Monday – 18 January 2021

Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Gross Domestic Product should advance in Q4 and reveal headline growth of 6.1% y/y and 3.2% q/q.

Tuesday – 19 January 2021

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 17:00) – The German HICP inflation for December is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.7% y/y. Initial expectations had been for a slight lift in the annual rate, but national data out of Germany already indicated that the number would remain stuck at a very low level. Germany’s temporary VAT cut and base effects from energy prices are largely to blame for the negative rate.

ECB Bank Lending Survey (EUR, GMT 09:00)

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – European January ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 45.5 compared to 54.4 last month.

Wednesday – 13 January 2021

The inauguration of Joe Biden as the 46th President will dominate headlines around the world!

PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidance on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.

Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data for December is anticipated higher at 0.5% y/y, after falling more than expected, to just 0.3% y/y in November, with the biggest downward contribution coming from food and non-alcohol beverages, along with clothing and footwear. The UK-wide Covid-19 lockdown in November suppressed price pressures. Inflation is likely to remain subdued over the next several months, but should pick up notably from spring, when base effects impact on year-on-year price comparisons. There is potential for pronounced reflation as 2021 progresses, assuming vaccine programs prove effective, which would facilitate a return towards societal and economic normalcy, and in turn trigger a possible consumer spending boom fuelled by ‘lockdown savings’. The Retail sales are seen at 1.1% y/y in December from 0.9% y/y last month.

Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The final CPI headline and core are expected to show 0.3%m/m December gains, with core declining to 0.5% m/m.
Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation accelerated to a 1.0% y/y pace in November, however, it is expected to decline in December to 0.8% y/y below the Bank’s target of 2% until 2023.

Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The BoC is expected to hold rates steady at 0.25% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”

Thursday – 21 January 2021

Interest Rate Decision and Statement (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady at -0.1% after December’s meeting in which extraordinary forward guidance remained in place as anticipated — the bank reiterated that it expects to hold rates at the effective lower bound until “economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.” The speculation is growing that the BoJ will scale back its ETF stock buying programme – given the strength in equities and the BoJ’s substantial ownership of this ETF sector.

Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45) – The ECB to add more stimulus at the moment seems unlikely unless current restrictions remain in place much longer than anticipated. Hence, ECB is expected to keep policy steady at January meeting. The central bank’s focus is on maintaining very favourable financing conditions for both governments and companies, against the background of a pandemic that not only has weighed heavily on the growth outlook, but also contributed a further fragmentation of economies and markets. With the advent of vaccination programs there clearly is no appetite to cut rates again. Not that the ECB rules out such a step — if the situation deteriorates again, or an overshooting currency undermines the inflation outlook, the ECB won’t shy away from using that instrument if necessary.

Friday – 22 January 2021

Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:0) – Final December PMI readings brought downward revisions. The manufacturing PMI was revised to 55.2 from 55.5, while the services PMI came in at 46.4, versus 47.3 in the preliminary report, although still up from 41.7 in the previous month. The composite PMI was revised down to 49.1 from 49.8, again still an improvement from the 44.3 reported for November, but no signalling ongoing contraction, rather than the stabilisation the flash reading suggested. Social distancing measures and restrictions continued to weigh on the services sector and while the outlook in December was brightened by the prospect of vaccination programs, it is pretty clear now that restrictions won’t go away any time soon and that despite vaccines it will still be a very difficult winter. That means that while the downturn in overall activity in Q4 was less severe than thought at some point, the outlook for the first quarter looks very difficult and as Market highlighted the risk of a technical recession is greater now.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 19th January 2021.

Market Update – January 19 – USD & Yen Slide.

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EURUSD, H1

The Dollar and Yen have come under pressure today after rallying yesterday. A bullish sentiment in global stock markets has boosted other currencies, particularly the dollar bloc and other cyclical units. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose over 1.5% and clocked a new record high, buoyed in the wake of strong GDP and production data out of China yesterday. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fared less well, and was showing a modest 0.2% gain as of the late London morning session. US Index futures were up by over 0.5%. Commodities, in contrast, were lacklustre. Oil prices lifted moderately, rising above Monday’s highs, but remained off the 11-month highs that were pegged last week. Base metal prices were mixed.

UserPostedImage

The USDIndex dropped below yesterday’s low to a nadir at S3 and 90.36. The index had yesterday printed a one-month high at 90.95. The dollar’s recent correlation with US Treasury yields broke, with the currency declining despite a concurrent 2 bp lift in the 10-year T-note yield to levels back above 1.10%. After rising on every trading day, except one, since January 6th, the Dollar had perhaps been looking ripe for a correction. Of interest, the latest Economist Big Mac index, which is a measure of 56 currency valuations according to the theory of purchasing power parity, shows the Dollar to be the fourth most overvalued currency, behind the Swiss franc, the Swedish krona, and the Norwegian krone. By this measure, the Euro is 9% undervalued relative to the Dollar, and the Pound 22% undervalued. This gives some insight into why the market has been so bearish of the Dollar in the beyond-Covid global reflation trade, which has the dominant macro investment thesis over the last couple of months.

Ahead today, Ex Fed chair Janet Yellen will testify before Congress for her nomination as Treasury Secretary, where she will reportedly call for the US to “act big” on stimulus. Regarding the Dollar, she is expected to argue for market-determined exchange rates. Given the Fed’s inflation tolerant, lower-for-longer rubric on interest rate policy, alongside prospects for sharp rises in the budget and trade deficits, US economic policy under the incoming Biden administration is sure to be accepting of, if not wanting, a weaker Dollar.

UserPostedImage

EURUSD – breached 1.2100 and trades north of R3 at 1.2144, Cable holds over 1.3600 having tested 1.3625 earlier, and USDJPY continues to rotate through 104.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 20th January 2021.

Morgan Stanley – Still the best Equity Trader?

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[Morgan Stanley is set to report its fourth-quarter 2020 earnings before the market open today. Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services. Hence similar to the previous three quarters of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic, along with the US presidential election and vaccination breakthroughs clearly impacted the Morgan Stanley report and weighed on markets sentiment especially as in the 4th quarter the second wave of pandemic looks to be even stronger than before. The virus spread created chaos in financial markets that impacted the value of loans, investments and trading assets, and significantly reduced interest income and investment banking fees.

However, fiscal stimulus programs and ongoing monetary support are expected to have helped client activity bounce back in H2 of 2020, leading to heightened volatility. Therefore, today we could see something similar to the JPMorgan report. Morgan Stanley’s equity and fixed income markets revenues are expected to have improved. Additional reasons that could support a positive reading today are the near-zero interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s bond purchase program, as these is likely to have aided Morgan Stanley’s debt underwriting fees, which account for more than 50% of their total underwriting fees. Also, global M&As spiked in the 2nd half of 2020 due to restructuring. Hence Morgan Stanley could benefit from advisory fees incomes.

Nevertheless, according to Forbes and Zacks, Morgan Stanley is expected to earn $1.29/share on $11.08 billion in revenue. This would represent year-over-year growth of 7.5%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $11.28 billion, up 3.88% from the year-ago period.

UserPostedImage

Technical Analysis

It has been an interesting year for US company shares. Morgan Stanley hit a yearly high of $91.31/share in 2020 while currently trading within the $75-77 territory. The share price is on course for the best performing quarter in Morgan Stanley’s history, since it is a breath away from the 161.8 Fibonacci extension from November’s rally. From the technical perspective, the stock’s outlook is currently bullish however some consolidation has been noticed since December 2020 on the overbought performance seen in the 2nd half of 2020. The price is positioned well above the 200 Day Moving Averages and 50 Day Moving Averages.

The stock is prone to big moves after reporting earnings and could easily gap up if the numbers are strong. Conversely, if the numbers disappoint, the stock could easily gap down.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 21st January 2021.

USD Data – Claims Remain Elevated, Housing & Philly Fed beat.

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EURUSD, H1

US initial jobless claims fell -26,000 to 900,000 in the week ended January 16. This follows the prior week’s sharply downwardly revised 142,000 surge to 926,000 (was 965,000) which was the highest level since late August. But the 4-week moving average rose to 848,000 versus the prior 824,500 (was 834,250). Initial jobless claims (NSA) tumbled -151,300 to 960,700 in the January 16 week after rising 192,300 (was 231,300). Continuing claims dropped -127,000 to 5.054 million in the January 9 week after bouncing 109,000 to 5.81 million (was 5.271 million). The initial claims number will get a little extra scrutiny as it coincides with the BLS employment survey week.

US housing starts climbed 5.8% to 1.669 mln in December, well above expectations, following the 3.1% jump to 1.578 mln (was 1.547 mln) in November. This is the fourth straight monthly increase and is the highest since late 2006. Building permits increased 4.5% to 1.709 mln last month after November’s 5.9% surge to 1.635 mln (was 1.639 mln). All of the strength in starts was in the single family arena, posting a 12.0% pop, while multifamily starts dropped -13.6% following respective increases of 1.4% (was 0.4%) and 9.1% (was 4.0%). And this is an 8th straight monthly gain (since May) for single family starts.

The Philly Fed manufacturing index rebounded 17.4 points to 26.5 in January, much stronger than expected, after dropping -11.6 points to 9.1 (was 11.1) in December. The index has been in expansion since June and was at 13.7 a year ago. Gains were broadbased. The employment index surged to 22.5 from 5.6 (was 8.5). The workweek edged up to 18.6 from 15.5 (was 18.0). New orders jumped to 30.0 from 1.9 (was 2.3). Prices paid nearly doubled to 45.4 versus 24.9 (was 27.1) and prices received increased to 36.6 from 16.1 (was 18.0). The 6-month activity index rose to 52.8 from 43.1 (was 39.2). But the future employment gauge dipped to 38.9 from 41.3 (was 41.0), and new orders were unchanged at 47.5 (December was revised from 41.5). Prices paid slid to 41.3 from 45.1 (was 46.6), with prices received at 33.9 from 34.3 (was 35.5).

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The Dollar moved slightly higher after the mostly upbeat data, which saw initial jobless claims fall less than expected, but continuing claims down more than forecast. Housing starts beat expectations, while the Philly Fed index was stronger than consensus. USDJPY traded from near 103.45 to 103.55, while EURUSD initially dipped to near 1.2150 from 1.2165.

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Equities have opened higher, all three of the major US indices at all-time highs, the USA100 leads the way to trade at 13,310.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 21st January 2021.

USD Data – Claims Remain Elevated, Housing & Philly Fed beat.

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EURUSD, H1

US initial jobless claims fell -26,000 to 900,000 in the week ended January 16. This follows the prior week’s sharply downwardly revised 142,000 surge to 926,000 (was 965,000) which was the highest level since late August. But the 4-week moving average rose to 848,000 versus the prior 824,500 (was 834,250). Initial jobless claims (NSA) tumbled -151,300 to 960,700 in the January 16 week after rising 192,300 (was 231,300). Continuing claims dropped -127,000 to 5.054 million in the January 9 week after bouncing 109,000 to 5.81 million (was 5.271 million). The initial claims number will get a little extra scrutiny as it coincides with the BLS employment survey week.

US housing starts climbed 5.8% to 1.669 mln in December, well above expectations, following the 3.1% jump to 1.578 mln (was 1.547 mln) in November. This is the fourth straight monthly increase and is the highest since late 2006. Building permits increased 4.5% to 1.709 mln last month after November’s 5.9% surge to 1.635 mln (was 1.639 mln). All of the strength in starts was in the single family arena, posting a 12.0% pop, while multifamily starts dropped -13.6% following respective increases of 1.4% (was 0.4%) and 9.1% (was 4.0%). And this is an 8th straight monthly gain (since May) for single family starts.

The Philly Fed manufacturing index rebounded 17.4 points to 26.5 in January, much stronger than expected, after dropping -11.6 points to 9.1 (was 11.1) in December. The index has been in expansion since June and was at 13.7 a year ago. Gains were broadbased. The employment index surged to 22.5 from 5.6 (was 8.5). The workweek edged up to 18.6 from 15.5 (was 18.0). New orders jumped to 30.0 from 1.9 (was 2.3). Prices paid nearly doubled to 45.4 versus 24.9 (was 27.1) and prices received increased to 36.6 from 16.1 (was 18.0). The 6-month activity index rose to 52.8 from 43.1 (was 39.2). But the future employment gauge dipped to 38.9 from 41.3 (was 41.0), and new orders were unchanged at 47.5 (December was revised from 41.5). Prices paid slid to 41.3 from 45.1 (was 46.6), with prices received at 33.9 from 34.3 (was 35.5).

UserPostedImage

The Dollar moved slightly higher after the mostly upbeat data, which saw initial jobless claims fall less than expected, but continuing claims down more than forecast. Housing starts beat expectations, while the Philly Fed index was stronger than consensus. USDJPY traded from near 103.45 to 103.55, while EURUSD initially dipped to near 1.2150 from 1.2165.

UserPostedImage

Equities have opened higher, all three of the major US indices at all-time highs, the USA100 leads the way to trade at 13,310.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 23rd January 2021.

FX Update – January 22 – USD Holds gains & PMI’s.

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GBPUSD, H1

The Dollar has firmed up on a safe haven bid with the reflation trade having come to a firm stop. The USDIndex lifted moderately to a 90.25 high after basing out at a nine-day low at 90.05. The US currency gained only marginally against the Euro and Yen, but racked up gains of around 0.4% to 0.5% against the Pound and dollar bloc currencies. EURUSD ebbed back from an eight-day high at 1.2178, before recovering to 1.2188 following Eurozone PMI data, while USDJPY lifted to a two-day high at 103.70.

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Global equity indices corrected from record highs in the cases of the main US indices and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index. Base metals are also markedly lower. Lofty valuations and an increasing level of concern about the Covid situation have warranted increasing investor caution. Covid restrictions have been implemented across northern China, and the new highly transmittable variant of the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus — aka the British variant, where it was first detected — has shown up as far afield as Beijing and Australia. The EU looks set ban travel to the UK, while the UK has already imposed much tougher international travel restrictions. The rollout of the Covid vaccinations globally has also been proving to be bumpy.

Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies dropped sharply again, which will only add to their reputation for being too volatile for serious institutional investors to touch. Reports that the Biden administration has tighter regulations for cryptocurrencies on its ‘to do’ list have been driving cryptos lower. Bitcoin was showing an 11% loss on the day, as of the early London morning, at $30,860 — which is nearly 26% below the record high seen earlier in the month. The virtual coin earlier traded below $29,000 for the first time since January 1.

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Eurozone Flash PMI readings declined as lockdowns were strengthened and/or extended. The last minute Brexit deal may have helped to prevent a worse number for the manufacturing sector at least, and the decline in the Eurozone manufacturing reading to 54.7 from 55.2 was actually less pronounced than feared with the number still pointing to a solid pace of expansion. Services meanwhile are clearly suffering. The Eurozone services PMI dropped back to 45.0 from 46.4, driven largely by a sharp deterioration in the French reading, which fell to 46.5 from 49.1. The German index held up better than feared and dipped only slightly – to 46.8 from 47.0. The overall composite for the Eurozone came in at 47.5, down from 49.1 at the end of last year and supporting expectations for a technical recession over the Q4 and Q1 period.

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Across the Channel UK PMI data showed a woeful record for Services and came in much weaker than expected. The headline composite PMI plunged to 40.6 from 50.4 in December. The median forecast had been for a 45.5 reading. Pronounced weakness in the service sector drove the composite lower, with services bearing the brunt of the lockdown across the UK nations, which has been the most severe since last year’s ‘mother’ lockdown. The prelim services PMI headline dove to 38.8 from 49.4. The prelim manufacturing PMI fell to a headline reading of 52.9 from 57.5, which was near the median forecast for 53.0. Much of the manufacturing sector remains open, despite the lockdown. The drop in the composite reading, while sharp, is still less much less severe than was seen during early spring last year. There are hopes that the UK’s world-leading vaccination programme will start to see restrictions lifted from as early as mid February, by which time all the most vulnerable groups should have been vaccinated.

Cable trades down to test 1.3650, down from yesterday’s high at 1.3745 and today’s open at 1.3729.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 25th January 2021.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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A gigantic week is coming with 2 of the FAANGs, Tesla and Microsoft, reporting their Q4 earnings, along with the FOMC conference in focus as it could provide key information on fiscal support talks. Focus will also be on GDP data from the biggest economies in the world, including the US and Europe, but also on UK Job numbers that will show the impact of the original furlough deadline.

Monday – 25 January 2021

German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip slightly to 90.0 in January after the jump seen in December to 92.1.

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.

Tuesday – 26 January 2021

Average Earnings Index & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to slow down to 2.3% y/y in the three months to November. UK ILO unemployment is expected higher at 5.1% in the three months to November.

Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – The US Consumer confidence is expected to slip to 88.0 from 88.6 in December, versus a 6-year low of 85.7 in April. The confidence measures have shown divergent swings since mid-2020 that have a downward tilt into January, likely due to the surge in virus cases, more stringent lockdowns, and the bizarre political events of recent weeks. We should be seeing some lift from stimulus passage and vaccine distributions, however, which may be more evident in February.

Wednesday – 27 January 2021

Consumer Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian inflation data in Q4 is expected to decline at 1.5% q/q while headline remains in line with Q3 at 0.7% y/y.

Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 3.0% in December with an 8.3% climb in transportation orders. A defense orders gain is pegged at 3.0%, following a 3.7% November bounce. Boeing orders jumped to 90 in December with the lifting of the 737 MAX grounding, from 27 in November and zero in the two months before that. Durable shipments should rise 1.0%, and inventories should rise 0.5%.

Interest Rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC is due to meet (Tuesday, Wednesday) but no changes are expected. The FOMC didn’t make any big changes in its policy stance at the December 16 meeting. However, it did tweak its statement to emphasize its uber-accommodative posture, which was underscored several times by Chair Powell in his press conference. The forecasts indicate that current rates will remain in place through 2023.

Thursday – 28 January 2021

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German prel. HICP inflation for January is anticipated to be released at -0.6% y/y from -0.7% y/y. Germany’s temporary VAT cut is partly to blame as are base effects from oil prices, but it is also clear that a lack of demand and the closure of the hospitality sector continue to keep a lid on headline inflation numbers.

Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The prelim. Gross Domestic Product should advance at 4.1% in Q4 and 3.2% in Q1, after 33.4% growth in Q3. We expect a Q4 moderation in consumption growth to 2.2% from 41.0% in Q3 as heightened coronavirus restrictions impacted spending, while government purchases contract at an estimated -5% rate, and nonresidential investment in structures fall at a -9% pace. We saw in Q3 a continued boom in housing activity and equipment spending.
Friday – 29 January 2021

Friday – 29 January 2021

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Eurozone’s GDP contracted -5.0% last year, according to the first estimate for economic activity last year. That compared to a modest rise of 0.6% in 2019 and while it was somewhat better than median expectations, the numbers refer to unadjusted data. Adjusted for calendar effects, GDP was actually down -5.3%. There is no data for the last quarter yet, but it is pretty clear that after the recession in the first quarter and the rebound over the summer, virus developments weighed on growth again in the last quarter of 2020, although less than feared at one point.

Personal Income/Consumption (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.1% increase in headline rise for personal income in December is anticipated after a -1.1% drop in November, alongside a -0.7% drop in consumption after a -0.4% November decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 26th January 2021.

FX & Market Update – January 26.

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FX News Today

USD & JPY stage a wee comeback. US Equities had a very volatile day – (Huge surge in Options trading) US Futures down and Asian markets weaker – amid fears of a delay in stimulus programs and warnings of asset bubbles in China weighed. In Europe, virus developments remain in focus with clear signs that lockdowns are working in new infection numbers, but worries about the impact of virus mutations and in the EU dissatisfaction with the slow rollout of vaccines. Yellen confirmed as Treasury Secretary, Trump impeachment passed to the Senate, Italian PM Conte quits and NZD & China sign new trade deal.

This week – FED on Wednesday, GDP from EU & US and a big week for US Earnings – FB, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple and DAVOS goes on-line.

USDIndex – Holds over 90.00. Trades to 90.50, – PP 90.30 – R1 90.55, R1 90.70

EUR – Back to 1.2115 now – PP – 1.2145, s1 1.2106, S2 1.2077
JPY – Remains under 104.000 – Trades at 103.75 (PP) – S1 103.60, r1 103.88
GBP – Back to test 1.3612 (low from Thursday) form 1.3720 high yesterday. – s1 13645, s2 1.3605
AUD – Under 0.7700 – trades at 0.7675 (S1) now. S2 0.7654, NZD – Under 0.7200 – trades at 7170 (s1) S2 – 0.7146 CAD – rallies over 1.2700 – trades at 1.2775 (R1). r2 1.2830 CHF – rallied from 0.8850 to 0.8890 now. – PP 0.8875 – R1 0.8900

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BTC – Retraces back to S1 at $31,500. – PP today $33,200, s2 sub $30,000 – $29,900

GOLD – Holds over 1850 – (1869 high yesterday) PP 1856, s1 1845, R1 1866 USOil – Trades at $52.45 (PP) Today s1 52.15, r1 53.15
USA500 – Closed up 13 (+0.36%) 3855 – USA500 FUTS now at 3834 – 57 days north of 20SMA (3789).

Today – UK jobs report, US consumer confidence, ECB’s Villeroy, Earnings – Microsoft, Verizon, General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, 3M, Starbucks, Raytheon, LVMH, UBS and Novartis

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.41%) Rejected 80.30 yesterday, broke 20 & 200hr MA and 80.00 to test to 77.75 low. Recovered into 80.0 at close but has moved below S1 and yesterday’s low to 79.70. Fast MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 35 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and remain south of 0 line from the breach of 80.00 yesterday. Stochastics in OS zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.1004, Daily ATR 0.5780.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 27th January 2021.

FX News & Market Update – January 27.

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FX News Today

USD slips again ahead of the FED and clarification over stimulus package. US Equities closed flat, (Verizon -3%, J&J +2.7%, GE +2.7% & MS) all beat Earnings expectations (MS up 6% after hours). Asian markets also flat. US Consumer confidence much better than expected. Overnight, AUD CPI improved, JPY data flat and German Consumer Confidence dropped significantly (-15.6 from -7.5). Vaccine rollout continues apace in the UK but the virus death toll passed 100,000 yesterday and unemployment hit a new record. Trump impeachment likely to fail as only 5 of the required 17 Senate Republicans agreed it should proceed.

This week – FED later Today, GDP from EU & US and a big week for US Earnings – FB, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple and DAVOS goes on-line.

USDIndex – Holds over 90.00. Tracks lower from 90.60 high to trade at 90.15, – PP 90.30 – S1 89.95.55, R1 90.48

EUR – Back to to test 1.2165 now – PP – 1.2145, s1 1.2120, r1 1.2188
JPY – Remains under 104.000 – Trades at 103.65 (PP) – R1 103.76, S1 103.50
GBP – Back over 1.3700 to test 1.3760. PP – s1 13645, s2 1.3605
AUD – back over 0.7700 – trades at 0.7740
NZD – Over 0.7200 – trades at 0.7225
CAD – holds over 1.2700 – trades at 1.2718
CHF – declined from test of 0.8900 to 0.8865 now (s1)

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BTC – Pivots through $31,800. – R1 today $32,500, S1 30,000
GOLD – Holds and pivots at 1850 – (1861 high yesterday) PP 1856, s1 1847,
USOil – Trades at $52.95 (R1) Today PP 52.65, S1 52.10
USA500 – Closed down 5 (-0.15%) 3849 – USA500 FUTS now at 3850 – 58 days north of 20SMA (3796).

Today – US Durable Goods, DoEs, FOMC rate decision & Fed Chair Powell press conference, NZ trade, ECB’s Hakkarainen, Lane, Earnings from Apple, AT&T, Facebook, Boeing, Tesla, Blackstone

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCAD (+0.28%) Rallied from open today following break of 20hr MA yesterday. Support now PP 1.7435 andn testing R1 at 1.7490. . Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 70 rising & testing OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and significantly north of 0 line. MFI in OB zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0103.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 28th January 2021.

FX News & Market Update – January 28.

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FX News Today

BOOM – Stocks tank (-2%+ worst day in 3 months), USD gets safe haven lift, AUD & NZD hit. Hedge Funds squeezed, stimulus stalled? and vaccine rollout questions. FED – No change to rates & $120 bln/month in QE, the mantra remains until “substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.” Durable Goods missed earlier in the day. Earnings from the tech players all exceed expectations (APPLE (-0.77% $100bln+ in revenues and record iPhone sales) FB record revenues but closed down -3.5% “significant uncertainty” ahead. TESLA (-2% missed expectations, but talked up deliveries and a new van. Asian markets closed down -1.53%. The VIX closed over its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 4.

USDIndex – Holds over 90.50 (PP). Tracks higher to 90.81 now – S1 90.15, R1 90.90
EUR – Back to to test 1.2100 now – Low yesterday 1.2057. PP – 1.2115, s1 1.2054, r1 1.2165
JPY – Breached 104.000 – Trades at 104.35 (R1) – PP 103.96, r2 104.55
GBP – Back down over a whole number to 1.3650. PP – s1 13700, S1 1.3640
AUD – biggest loser today – back to test 0.7600 – trades at 0.7607 (S1)
NZD – back to also test S1 0.7125, – pp & 200Ma 0.7186
CAD – breaches 1.2800 – trades at R1 1.2850 – pp 1.2770
CHF – up to test 0.8900 once again. PP 0.8895, r1 0.8915

UserPostedImage

BTC – Pivots through $31,000. – R1 today $32,900, S1 29,000
GOLD – Lost pivot at 1850 – down to 1836 and tested S1 (1832) earlier – PP 1840.
USOil – Trades at $52.50 (PP) – Big draw down – spiked to 53.30 (R1) – but stock sell off pulled prices lower.

USA500 – Closed down 99.85 (-2.57%) 3750 – USA500 FUTS now at 3727 (50SMA) – 58 day north of 20SMA (3790) over.

Today – German CPI, US GDP (Q4), PCE, Weekly Claims, ECB’s Schnabel. EARNINGS – Comcast, American Airlines, Visa, Southwest Airlines, McDonalds, Mastercard, STMicroelectronics.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.60%) Rejected 0.7750 yesterday breached 20 & 200HR MA early PM. Support now S1 0.7615. Fast MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 31 falling & testing OS zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and significantly south of 0 line. Stochs in OS zone from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0019, Daily ATR 0.0075.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 29th January 2021.

FX & Market Update – January 29.

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It’s the final trading day of the week and month, and the dollar majors have mostly been holding within their respective Thursday ranges amid a backdrop of whippy global asset markets, which have once again turned to a risk-off positioning mode. The exception has been USDJPY, which floated to a seven-week high at 104.9 on the back of yen weakness, which saw GBPJPY lift to an 11-month high and AUDJPY to a two-day high. This price action is a break in correlation for the Yen, which historically has tended to strengthen during phases of risk aversion in global markets.

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EURUSD, meanwhile, has been narrowly orbiting the 1.2100 level for a second day. The Dollar posted modest gains versus the Pound and dollar bloc, and most other currencies, though largely remained off highs seen yesterday. In stock markets, the MSCI Asia-Pacific lost over 0.5% and is set for its biggest weekly decline since last September, of nearly 4%. S&P 500 futures are showing a decline of nearly 1%, more than reversing declines seen by the cash version of the index yesterday on Wall Street. The extraordinary spectacle of retail investors coordinating, via social media, purchases of GameStop and other shares, such as Blackberry, AMC and Bed, Bath and Beyond with the specific aim of forcing hedge funds to stop out of their short positions on such stocks, has been creating volatility and drama in markets this week. The “Reddit Quartet” fell -44.29%, -56.63%, -41.63% and -36.40%, respectively.

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Concerns about the SARS-Cov2 coronavirus have in the meantime increased palpably, with US vaccine developer Novavax reporting that its candidate vaccine showed only a 60% efficacy in Phase 3 trials for the South African variant, compared to a 90% efficacy for the non-South African variants. Uncertainty about the effectiveness of available vaccinations against new coronavirus variants (and how easy it would be for vaccines to be tweaked to accommodate new strains) has potential to keep markets on a wary footing until more data is available.

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The Pound has pulled back from highs this week, but continues to show gains since the UK’s departure from the transitory membership of the EU’s single market and customs union. The UK currency’s perkiness has been a response to the consequence of the UK Brexiting with a deal, bringing a long-awaited end to uncertainty, as well as the UK’s ahead-of-the-game Covid vaccination program, which could see the UK government start to reverse out of restrictions as soon as mid February, when all of the most-vulnerable groups should have been vaccinated. In this context it should be noted that the Pound remains at historically weak levels by the measure of the real effective exchange rate. The Economist magazine’s Big Mac index, a more informal measure of 56 currency valuations according to the theory of purchasing power parity, shows the Pound to be 22% undervalued against the Dollar.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 1st February 2021.

Events to Look Out for Next Week.


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Equity markets have been for sale so far as the “game stocks” frenzy and volatility have added to virus and vaccine woes and uncertainty over stimulus to further shake confidence, while sentiment was supported by earnings. Next week’s heavy dose of global data releases includes US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales, GDP and CPI but also rate decisions from the BoE and RBA. The data are likely to reveal the many negative impacts from the second wave. Meanwhile, there is a slew of earnings and guidance, which will be key as two giants report, i.e. Amazon and Alphabet.

Monday – 1 February 2021

Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00 Sunday) – The Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to slow down to 52.6 from 55.7 in January.

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German Retail Sales jumped 1.9% m/m after rising 2.6% m/m in Oct. For December, it is anticipated to drop -2.0% m/m.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 59.0 in January from a 2-year high of 60.7 in December, versus an 11-year low of 41.5 in April, a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018, and a low of 34.5 during the last recession in December of 2008.

Tuesday – 2 February 2021

RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In December, RBA Governor Lowe said the RBA doesn’t expect to lift the cash rate for at least three years. Hence the RBA is expected to keep policy settings unchanged with yield target at 0.10% and the cash rate target also at 0.10%. Like other central banks world wide, the RBA could stress again that “monetary and fiscal support will be required for some time.”

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German GDP is expected to have grown by 0.3% on an annualized rate in the first quarter of the year, compared to the -1.9% fall in Q4 2020.

Labor data (NZD, GMT 21:45) –In Q4, the unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 5.4% from 5.3%.

Wednesday – 3 February 2021

Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area preliminary core CPI for January is forecasted to remain unchanged at 0.2% y/y.

ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 49k in the number of employed people in January, compared to the -123K reading seen last month.

ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) –The ISM-NMI index is expected to slip to 57.0 from 57.2 in December, versus a 17-month high of 58.1 in July, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April, a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November of 2008. Producer sentiment has remained firm into the turn of the year as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories, despite headwinds from delays for both stimulus and vaccine distributions, alongside tightened coronavirus restrictions through the holidays.

Thursday – 4 February 2021

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales should contract to -3.4% m/m in December, leaving the headline at 0.8% y/y.

BOE Interest Rate & APF Decision, MPC Mins & Vote (GBP, GMT 12:00) – BoE leaders remain skeptical on negative rates. There was nothing much from BoE officials in January, but Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Broadbent recently confirmed that the top brass at the central bank remains very cautious on negative rates, which means in the central scenario of a gradual recovery in the second half of the year, the BoE is unlikely to join the negative rate club. Still, like other central banks the BoE is not expected to be in any hurry to rein in stimulus measures and is likely to confirm a “vigilant wait-and-see stance” at next week’s meeting.

BoE’s Governor Bailey speech

Friday – 5 February 2021

NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 100k January nonfarm payroll increase is seen, after a -140k drop in December, but gains of 336k in November and 654k in October. We assume a 30k factory jobs increase in January, after a 38k December rise. The jobless rate should hold steady from 6.7% in December. Hours-worked are assumed to bounce 0.2% after a -0.4% December decline, with the workweek ticking back up to match the 20-year high of 34.8 from 34.7 in December. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in January, the 0.8% December spike is partly reversed with the big drop in low-wage workers.

Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Employment contracted -62.6k in December after the 62.1k gain in November. The decline was larger than expected (we saw a -30k drop) but not a shock given the increase in regional lockdowns during the month that accompanied the spike in virus cases. The December number was the first monthly employment decline since April. The pull-back was driven by a -99.0k tumble in part time jobs that followed the -37.4k decline in November. The unemployment rate rose to 8.6% in December from 8.5% in November, as the participation rate dipped to 64.9% from 65.1%. The contraction in the job market as lockdowns were reinstated is consistent with a reiteration of the BoC’s whatever-it-takes policy guidance.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 2nd February 2021.

FX News Today – Tech Giants Day!

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Stock markets moved broadly higher after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday. Concern over volatility in retail trading has started to recede and stimulus hopes and vaccine progress are keeping sentiment underpinned. Tech stocks outperformed ahead of earnings from the likes of Amazon and Alphabet today. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. US futures are also higher, with the tech-heavy USA100 outperforming. The JPN225 closed with a gain of 0.97%. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.3 bp at 1.08%, while Australian 10-year rates climbed 0.5 bp even as the RBA announced an extension of asset purchases worth an additional AUD 100 bln. The Dollar was on bid overall on Monday, with a new month reportedly seeing USD inflows, despite the general risk-on conditions seen, which typically weigh on the USD.

Headlines:

For Europe it is clear that vaccination programs won’t bring a quick reopening of economies, even in the UK.

US records deadliest month of the pandemic.

RBA left key rates unchanged, as expected, with the target of 10 basis points for the cash rate on the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond maintained.

US-China: China calls for its relationship with the US to be put back on a predictable and constructive track.

Biden had a “substantive and productive discussion” with Republican senators on Covid relief.

South Korea is preparing a fourth round of coronavirus cash handouts.

CME futures exchange has raised its margin on silver futures by 18%.

Robinhood, the online broker at the centre of the boom in day trading, has raised $2.4bn in its second capital infusion in a week to shore up finances strained by turbulent trading.

Japanese government saying it would extend Covid related lockdowns and restrictions in various areas of the country for an additional month, to March 7, appeared to have weighed on the Yen as well.

Traders continue to price out any hope of additional rate cuts from BoE and ECB and data releases today are likely to be bond negative, with preliminary GDP numbers for the Eurozone and French HICP inflation likely to come in higher than originally anticipated

Forex Market

EUR – is trading at 1.2071, bellow PP and a breath above 2-month Support at 1.2000.
GBP – dollar safe haven strength drifted Pound to 1.3600 territory. Currently close to PP at 1.3690.
JPY – Resistance is at the psychological 105.00 level, with buy-stops noted above the level. A break higher will see the 200-day moving average at 105. 63 as the next upside target. The pairing last traded above the 200-DMA in June of 2020. Currently below R3 at 104.97.
AUD – ranging between the PP and S1, (0.7600-0.7665).
CAD – at 1.28 from 1.2860 highs.
Silver – in retreat, fell by 4% back below $28 – CME has raised its margin on silver futures which is arguably a significant factor in driving prices lower today.
USOil – surged to 54.35.

Today: Focus mainly on GDP reading for the Eurozone, and the Labor data for New Zealand . OPEC meeting on tap as well.

Biggest Mover AUDCAD (+0.32% as of 08:00 GMT) – The Australian Dollar ebbed after the RBA left interest rates unchanged but extended its QE program following its February board meeting. Governor Lowe also noted in the central bank’s statement that the exchange rate “has appreciated and is in the upper range of the recent year.” AUDUSD edged out a five-day low at 0.7603.

RBA left key rates unchanged, as expected, with the target of 10 basis points for the cash rate on the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond maintained. The parameters of the Term Funding Facility were also confirmed, but the RBA decided to purchase an additional AUD 100 bln of bonds issued by the government, states and territories “when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid April. These additional purchases will be at the current rate of AUD 5 bln a week”. The statement said the outlook for the global economy has improved over recent months thanks to vaccine developments. It warned, however, that the expected recovery is likely to “remain bumpy and uneven” and “remains dependent on the health situation and on significant fiscal and monetary support”. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to expand 3 1/2 percent this year as well as expected to “return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year”. Spare capacity is likely to stay for some time. Inflation and wages growth are expected to pick up from weak levels, but to remain “below 2% over the next couple of years”.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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Date : 3rd February 2021.

Amazon, Alphabet & Stimulus top boost to the Equity market

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Stock markets extended their rally overnight and yields climbed higher. 10-year rates jumped more than 11 bp in New Zealand after the country approved the first Covid-19 vaccine. The ongoing earnings season is adding support and better than expected revenue estimates from Alphabet and Amazon helped to bolster confidence.

The major indexes climbed back toward recent highs, unperturbed by the threat of six more weeks of winter as Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. Treasury yields have lifted 0.9 bp to 1.1%, while JGB rates are up a modest 0.1 bp at 0.05%. The JPN225 gained 1% and the ASX 0.9%, although Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently both marginally lower after the People’s Bank of China drained some funds from the financial system. The GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.

The earnings season is in full swing now and so far hasn’t dented the renewed surge in risk appetite and confidence that vaccination programs will help the global recovery to strengthen this year. Wall Street had another very good day yesterday and the move higher in stocks is set to resume today, also helped by hopes of accelerated fiscal stimulus in the US. Against that background any lingering expectations of additional rate cuts in Europe are being priced out, which should keep pressure on core EGBs.

Headlines:

President Biden and Senate Democrats look to pass the $1.9 tln relief bill via “reconciliation” (51 votes) and bypassing the Republicans.

US: New cases of Covid-19 fall for a 3rd week in a row – the first time this has been seen since September.

According to IBES data from Refinitiv: More than 80% of reports from USA500 companies so far have surpassed analysts’ earnings expectations, with 97% of reports from technology companies beating.

Amazon — Shares of the retailer were up 1% in after-hours trading on the back of quarterly results that beat analyst expectations. Amazon reported earnings per share of $14.09 on revenue of $125.56 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected a profit of $7.23 per share on revenue of $119.7 billion.

The company also announced that CEO Jeff Bezos will move to the role of executive chairman in the third quarter and be replaced by Amazon Web Services head Andy Jassy as chief executive officer.

Alphabet — Alphabet shares jumped 6% after the tech giant reported better-than-expected results for the previous quarter. The company reported earnings per share of $22.30 on revenue of $56.9 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected a profit of $15.90 per share on a revenue of $53.13 billion.

GameStop — Shares of the brick-and-mortar video game retailer continued to tumble in after-hours trading on Tuesday following a 60% drop in the regular session. Shares are down more than 70% this week as the short squeeze trade unravels.

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Salesforce are all investing in a $28 billion start-up company that crunches big data.

China Caixin services PMI dropped to 52.0 in January from 56.3.

Japan Jan Services PMI fell to 46.1 from 47.7 in December.

New Zealand Q4 2020 Unemployment rate 4.9% (vs. expected 5.6%).

BOJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe watered down expectations of much change from the bank’s monetary policy review due next month.

Forex Market

EUR – decline continues with the asset trading below 1.2100. S1 at 1.2007.
GBP – fell against the USD but remains above 20-DMA. S1: 1.3615, PP: 1.3660, R1: 1.3715.
JPY – lifted to 105.05, as the Yen weakened.
AUD – founds floor at 50-DMA (0.7600).
CAD – tumbled in 4-day range. Currently above S1 at 1.2750.
Silver – sharp reversal, filling the week’s gap. CFTC and CME warnings helped to quell price speculation.
USOil – at $55.20 with the move higher due to signs of tightening supply.

Today: Focus mainly on fundamentals which will be a focal point near term with ADP and ISM services reports today, and the jobs report Friday. Also Eurozone inflation data and final readings for Eurozone and UK Services PMIs meanwhile will act as a reminder that for now virus restrictions continue to weigh on overall activity and keep Europe on track for a recession over Q4/Q1.

Biggest Mover NZDJPY (+0.41% as of 08:00 GMT)

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
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  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 4th February 2021.

February: Emergence of more virulent strains.

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The New Year’s rally on Wall Street and global markets ran into turbulence during January. Rising virus cases and more stringent lockdowns, a shaky rollout of the vaccine in the US and Europe and the emergence of more virulent strains tempered optimism about the recovery. A frenzy in select stocks prompted a surge in anxiety and volatility on Wall Street. But the equity market bounced back into February, supported by still intact recovery expectations and a calming in market volatility. The uptrend in bond yields sputtered amid myriad developments and uncertainties, only to resume as stocks rebounded.

In February, fundamentals will continue to inform recovery expectations, while the market remains alert for another round of volatility fueled by retail investors.

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Fundamentals were briefly pushed to the side in the final week of January, as a frenzy erupted around shares of GameStop and AMC that was driven by retail investors taking cues from internet message boards. However, a rise in margin requirements and curbs on trading activity calmed trading in those high profile shares, easing the market’s anxiety.

The vaccine rollout was a bit rougher than hoped in the US and Europe during January, with reports circulating of unused doses and challenges with distribution. Moreover, the emergence of mutated strains globally prompted worries that the vaccines may not be as effective against the new strains, delaying a return to normal activities. Moderna and Pfizer reported that based on laboratory studies, their vaccines are only effective against one of the new variants. The mutations are an evolving situation that the markets will follow closely in February, even as vaccine distribution ramps up globally.

But as February began, encouraging signs emerged on vaccine distribution, infection rates and hospitalizations in the US and Europe. Consequently, global recovery expectations have been rolled ahead, not reduced or eliminated.

In the Eurozone, the Q4 GDP growth wasn’t as bad as feared. However, the risk of a double dip recession in both the Eurozone and the UK remains firmly on the table, as services in particular continue to suffer. Inflation has jumped higher at the start of the year, especially in Germany, which backs expectations that neither the ECB, nor the Bank of England are likely to add additional rate cuts. Eurozone Q4 GDP contracted -0.7% (q/q, sa), less than initially expected in the light of renewed lockdowns towards the end of the year. Economic activity was down -5.1% in the last quarter of 2020, compared to a year earlier, highlighting that there is a long way to go before activity has reached pre-pandemic levels even if restrictions are lifted quickly, which is unlikely to be the case. Hence, the risk of a technical recession remains firmly on the table, while data also highlights the growing divergence between Eurozone countries, which will pose a challenge for politicians and central bankers alike going forward.

Germany’s economy seems to have weathered the pandemic better than many other Eurozone countries, largely thanks to a resilient manufacturing sector, which has remained open during the current lockdown, and the recovery in major export markets. Like elsewhere, the central scenario remains for a recovery in activity in the second half of the year. But looking ahead, it will be key that the government doesn’t go back to the pre-pandemic status quo, but focuses on a structural renewal that helps to lift long term growth potential. The fact that Chancellor Merkel will leave the political stage following the general election in the second half of the year may be the chance to achieve just that.

German economic activity contracted -5.0% last year, somewhat less than feared, although adjusted for calendar effects the contraction was somewhat higher at -5.3% y/y. Of course Covid-19 developments and lockdowns are largely to blame, with much of the weakness concentrated in the first half of 2020, when strict lockdowns brought activity to a standstill.

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Activity picked up over the summer, before another wave of infections resulted in the current lockdown. While this lockdown is less strict than in some other European countries, the hospitality and travel industries remain effectively shut down without the prospect of a swift easing of restrictions. Vaccination programs have started, but remain in the state hands, which has led to a very uneven rollout. Still, the manufacturing sector remains largely open and construction actually managed to expand last year. Furthermore, stock building exercises ahead of Brexit helped to boost manufacturing in Q4. However, there will likely be demand missed in the first quarter of this year and the chances are that there will be a technical recession over Q4 2020 and Q1 2021.

Still, the main scenario is for a recovery in the second half of the year, also helped by very favourable financing conditions and fiscal support that was scaled up substantially in 2020. The overall debt to GDP ratio is still much lower than in many other Eurozone countries, and with government bond yields negative out to the 10-year area and the ECB continuing to buy substantial amounts in the secondary market, clearly Germany doesn’t have a real problem financing the debt, especially with a huge current account surplus.

A healthy fiscal situation already helped Germany to scale up wage support programs and job retention schemes at the start of the pandemic and the jobless number has remained low by comparison — falling to just 6.1% at the end of last year. Like elsewhere it will take time before the true impact on the labour market will become clear — once government support has been phased out. The risk is that the pandemic will lead to higher structural unemployment if and when there are major structural shifts, with the older generation likely to struggle to re-integrate into a changed labour market.

Indeed, the pandemic has highlighted fundamental problems in Germany’s economic model. Like in other countries, the challenge for the government will be to use the funds being made available now to facilitate a shift in focus and a structural renewal. Economically that requires a move away from the focus on manufacturing and a strengthening of the still woefully inadequate digital infrastructure. The success of BioNTech in the search for a vaccine highlighted that there is still life in Germany’s R&D sector, but the overall number of start ups has been quite low in recent years compared to other countries. Germany will need to focus on promoting structural renewal — the exit of Chancellor Merkel from the political stage and the end of a focus on budget consolidation should provide the perfect opportunity for that.

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Chancellor Merkel, who has been in office since 2005, really is on the way out now. She already relinquished the party leadership at the end of 2018, and will likely leave the political stage at the general election in the second half of the year. The experienced leader still helped to guide Germany through the pandemic. Her background in science clearly was beneficial during the first wave of the pandemic, when a swift reaction to developments prevented the type of death numbers seen elsewhere in Europe. Ironically though, that actually backfired to a certain extent as the lack of cases and excess deaths early on played into the hands of conspiracy theorists denying the existence of a real virus threat, leaving Chancellor Merkel with state premiers that not only went further in re-opening the economy over the summer than Merkel would have liked but also delayed the reaction to the renewed rise in case numbers later in the year.

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There already have been coalitions between the conservatives and the former protest party at the state level, but whether this is a viable option for Berlin will also depend on who will become the candidate for Merkel’s succession in the general election. Merkel’s CDU is currently busy trying to determine a new party leader, and business-man Merz seems to have the upper hand. Under Merz, the CDU is likely to move more to the right and a pre-Merkel type of conservativism that would make cooperation with the Green Party more difficult. On the other hand, it may help the CDU/CSU win back some of the voters that went over to the AfD in protest against Merkel’s immigration policy. As such it could help to de-fragment the German political landscape.

If Merz becomes first party leader and then Chancellor, it would likely also have a positive impact on the digitalisation and the start up culture in Germany. However, Merkel’s departure is also likely to leave its mark on the political landscape in Europe and will have wider implications for the Eurozone and the EU going forward. A shift towards a greater focus on business interests under Merz will likely also mean an attempt to push German interests at European level and ultimately greater confrontation with the southern block. For now the focus on the pandemic has helped to gloss over differences at the ECB, but with the end of the pandemic, internal discussions and conflict are likely to pick up. Ultimately that could be healthy and if it does undermine market confidence in the Eurozone for a while and thus weigh on the EUR, that may actually be a welcome development at least at the start of the recovery.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 5th February 2021.

FX News Today – NFP Day! – Dollar set for best week in three months.

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Stock markets have moved broadly higher overnight after a strong close on Wall Street, which was supported by indications that the labour market is recovering, positive forecast for upcoming earnings and ongoing hope of stimulus as markets buy into the expected recovery in the world economy later in the year, when vaccination programs have helped to re-open economies. Strength was also broadbased though paced by tech, financials, and energy. The USA100 climbed to 13,777 while the USA500 rose to 3871. The USA30 firmed to 31,055 but fell shy of its January 20 historic high of 31,188. Bond markets steadied and the 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.5 bp at 1.1%, while the JGB rate has dropped -0.4 bp to 0.05%. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures.

That left sentiment upbeat ahead of the US payroll numbers today. Also helping has been the improving outlook on the pandemic as vaccine jabs increase and virus cases slow.

Headlines:

Strong earnings and improving fundamentals (jobless claims and factory orders today) supported, as did expectations for the $1.9 tln stimulus bill after the Democrats moved to fast-track the bill.
The RBA’s quarterly statement on monetary policy stuck to the script and repeated that the bank can still extend asset purchases if needed.
BoE not in the mood for negative rates! The BoE left policy settings unchanged, as widely expected. Lingering hopes that the central bank would join the negative rate club were dashed, and yields moved sharply higher while the Pound strengthened. – UK100 is still outperforming as the GBP remains supported following the BoE statement yesterday.
The global stock rally also paused briefly and despite cautious words from central bankers highlighting ongoing risks, investors are increasingly buying into the recovery story.
Earnings remain in focus with Ebay Inc and PayPal Holdings supported by positive forecasts.
GameStop closed under $55, its lowest for two weeks – Robinhood lifted restrictions on buying Gamestop and AMC.
Global bond funds led inflows in the seven days to Feb. 3, on the back of a rise in US yields, while money market funds witnessed the highest outflows in eight weeks.
Investors purchased $27.2 billion in bond funds last week, the biggest in eight months, and sold $32 billion worth of money market funds, Refinitiv Lipper data showed.

Forex Market

EUR – down for a second day below 1.2000.
GBP – supported at 1.3680. Gilts selling off yesterday and weighed on the UK100.
JPY – retests the 200-DMA and 3-month Resistance at 105.60.
AUD – ranging between PP and S1 (0.7600-0.7665).
CAD – stacked at 1.28 lows.
GOLD – breaks 1800.
USOil – remains supported and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 56.61 per barrel.

Today: Markets will be waiting for the non-farm payroll report out of the US but for what it is worth today’s local calendar includes German manufacturing orders data for December.

Biggest (FX) Mover – USOIL (-0.80% as of 08:50 GMT) – It clocked a fresh 1-year high at $56.84, breaking the 200-week SMA, with a strong weekly bullish candle, ignoring the 3-week doji candles posted so far. Data this week showing a drawdown in US crude inventories, along with demand-bolstering colder than usual winter weather in large parts of the northern hemisphere, have been underpinning oil.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 8th February 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.


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Leading indicators such as US and Chinese Inflation and GDP from the UK dominate the releases next week. The markets are going to remain focused on the vaccination programs development, while market volatility may slacken ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. China begins its New Year-Golden Week holiday on 11 February, as does Korea, while Taiwan starts a day earlier on Wednesday. Most other countries’ data will be out on Friday. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 8 February 2021

Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 07:00) – Industrial production in Germany is expected to have dropped in December, reaching 0.7% m/m, below the 0.9% last month.

Tuesday – 9 February 2021

Trade Balance (CNY, GMT n/a) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in January, after the surplus of $78.17 billion in December.

Wednesday – 10 February 2021

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to grow in January at 1.1% m/m, with the headline at -0.1% y/y, following the 0.7% m/m rise on the monthly basis.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The final German HICP inflation for January is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.6% y/y.

Consumer Price Index (USD, 13:30) – The US January CPI is expected to see 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following a 0.4% gain for the headline and 0.1% for the core in December. CPI gasoline prices look poised to bounce 5.4% in January, leaving a tailwind for the headline. As-expected January figures would result in a 1.5% headline y/y increase, following a 1.4% pace in December. Core prices should show a 1.5% y/y rise, down from 1.6% in December. The headline y/y gains for all the inflation gauges are expected to climb sharply into Q2 of 2021 due to hard comparisons, leaving a peak headline CPI y/y gain in the 3.4% area in May, alongside a 2.6% y/y core price rise, with respective PCE y/y chain price gains of 2.6% and 2.0%.

BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 17:00)

Thursday – 11 February 2021

Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US initial jobless claims fell -33k to 779k in the week ended January 30 after dropping -63k to 812k in the prior week. The decline in the most recent survey week leaves claims at the lowest level since the 716k reading in the November 27 week. Continuing claims dropped -193k to 4,592k in the January 23 week after slumping -190k to 4,785k (was 4,771k). This was another encouraging claims report, a trend which is expected to continue.

Friday – 12 February 2021

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to slow down slightly at 15.8% q/q and -9.4% y/y.

Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 07:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have risen, with both providing an upwards contribution of 0.5% m/m and 0.9% m/m in December.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 9th February 2021.

Market Update – February 9 – BTC & Equities all-time-highs.

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Market News Today

Equities (Nasdaq +0.95%) & BTC (+20%, $47k+) rally to new all-time highs & USD loses more momentum (USDIndex 90.65). USOil rallies to 13-month highs ($58.50), Gold up to $1840 and US 10-yr Yields at 1.16%. Details of US stimulus package show unemployment insurance will run until August 29th, & $1,400 cheques at the same income level as prior round but will reduce when income hits 75K. EU will follow Australia and get tech firms to pay for news (FT). Walt Disney & Gen. Motors up over 4.5% ahead of Earnings this week. Overnight – improved data from JPY, inflation increasing in NZD, and UK retail sales and German trade balance tick higher.

Today – German trade balance, US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Twitter, Cisco & Total.

UserPostedImage
UserPostedImage

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.40%) Continued Friday’s rally from 0.7135 lows and break of 20 MA yesterday at 0.7200 to test R1 today at 0.7245. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 63 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher & significantly over 0 line, Stochs. falling from OB zone after R1 breach, MFI remains in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 10th February 2021.

Market Update – February 10 – USD continues to cool.

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Market News Today

USD down again, Equities finished flat but Asian markets & Futs. higher after good earnings reports from Twitter, Cisco, Lyft and Toyota. Oil holds at 13-month highs, Gold holds 1840, BTC peaked at 48k and 10-yr Yields closed at 1.16% again, with expectations of inflation raised. Overnight JPY PPI in line but CNY CPI surprisingly dipped too (-0.3%), German CPI in line with expectations at 0.8%.

Today – US CPI, Oil inventories, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Powell, new Bonds from the UK, Germany & the US – Earnings from Coke, General Motors, Under Armour, Uber & 152 more US companies.

UserPostedImage
UserPostedImage

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (-0.14%) Continued Friday’s decline from 0.9050 highs and re-break of 20 MA on Monday below 0.9000 to test S1 today at 0.8910. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 24 & and OS, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower & significantly under 0 line, Stochs OS zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0005, Daily ATR 0.0050.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 11th February 2021.

Market Update – February 11 – Consolidation: USD at lows, Equities at highs.

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Market News Today

USD consolidates at lows, Equities finished flat (TWTR +13%). China, Japan and South Korea closed for start of Lunar New Year. US Inflation disappointed, taking the steam from the “buy everything” rally of the last few days. Biden spoke of concern about China’s “coercive and unfair economic practices” & human rights, ahead of speaking with Xi. Powell spoke of the significant bond purchasing programme continuing until Inflation rises significantly. Lagarde talked of not the time to slow down fiscal support & a digital EURO within 4 yrs. Oil slips a tad, Gold also consolidates and 10yr yields dipped to 1.12%. Overnight German Wholesale Inflation spiked to 2.1% from 0.6%, AstraZeneca Q4 sales beat estimates.

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in overall languid trading conditions. Singapore will be off tomorrow, and the lunar new year holiday will start tomorrow in Hong Kong. Despite these absentees, global stock markets have remained buoyant, if directionally unambitious. The dollar bloc currencies correspondingly have been firm while remaining below their respective Wednesday highs. The dollar itself settled above the lows that it saw yesterday. This left EURUSD making time in the lower 1.2100s, below Wednesday’s 10-day peak at 1.2145. USDJPY settled slightly to the north of the 104.50 level, above yesterday’s 13-day low at 104.41. Cable consolidated recent gains below yesterday’s 34-month peak at 1.3866.

Ahead, we anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken, assuming that the reflation trade sustains on the back of the sharp drop on new positive Covid tests, which is being seen globally, vaccination optimism, and overall good corporate earnings reports, alongside stimulus and the prospect for a pent-up consumer spending spree in developed economies.

Today – US initial/continued jobless claims, OPEC & IEA MOMR, ECB’s de Guindos and Earnings from 185 US cos. including PepsiCo and Walt Disney.

UserPostedImage
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.38%) Rallied from S1 at 0.7713 earlier, testing R1 now at 0.7750, yesterday’s high 0.7755. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 61 & rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and breaking over 0 line, Stochs OB zone from earlier this morning. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0058

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 12th February 2021.

Market Update – February 12 – USD ticks up from lows.

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Market News Today

USD tweaks off lows, US Equities flat (Tilray -49.7%, latest Reddit frenzy, DISNEY & Pepsi beat expectations – big gains for Disney+ and lots of snacking at home in lockdowns). Weekly Claims data weak again. Most of Asia closed for Lunar New Year, Nikkei also flat into close. BTC rallied towards 49K – BNY Mellon will accept it as custodian status. Oil slips a tad on reduced forecasts from OPEC+ and the EIA consider the market still over supplied, Gold lost over $20 to $1820 and 10yr yields spiked 1.16% as new 30yr Treasuries were poorly received. Overnight UK GDP beat at 1.0% & Q3 revised up 1% to 16%, which leaves an overall record -9.9% for 2020; other industrial data better than expected too.

Ahead, we anticipate that the dollar will continue to weaken, assuming that the reflation trade sustains on the back of the sharp drop on new positive Covid tests, which is being seen globally, vaccination optimism, and overall good corporate earnings reports, alongside stimulus and the prospect for a pent-up consumer spending spree in developed economies.

Today – CAD Wholesale Sales, UoM Inflation & Consumer Sentiment & FED’s Williams.

UserPostedImage

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (09:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.46%) Broke under 20Hr MA after open this morning, under 200hr MA, S1 and the key 0.7200 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 30 and testing OS zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and broke over 0 line earlier today. Stochs into OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0079.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 15th February 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.


UserPostedImage

Markets are itching to push the reflation trade against the background of vaccine developments and fiscal stimulus. Central banks are, unsurprisingly, trying to slow the rise in yields, although even if officials highlight that virus mutations could delay the re-opening of economies and that the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside, it seems futile at the moment to push against the gradual slide in core bonds. Fundamentals however will continue to dominate volatility as a busy week will start with leading indicators such as Inflation, Retail Sales, PMI and GDP from the largest economies in the world.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 15 February 2021

Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50 Sunday) – Gross Domestic Product should plummet in the preliminary Q4 reading and reveal headline growth of 2.3% q/q from 5.3% q/q in Q3.

Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The volume of production of Industries for factories and manufacturing has been slowly recovering but showing signs of stalling. December’s reading however is expected to reveal a negative -0.3% m/m, a decline from November’s 2.5% m/m reading.

Tuesday – 16 February 2021

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Eurozone Q4 GDP contracted -0.7% (q/q, sa), less than initially expected in light of renewed lockdowns towards the end of the year. Economic activity was down -5.1% in the last quarter of 2020, compared to a year earlier, highlighting that there is a long way to go before activity has reached pre-pandemic levels even if restrictions are lifted quickly, which is unlikely to be the case. The preliminary Gross Domestic Product for Q4 2020 should remain unchanged in the quarterly and yearly basis. Hence, the risk of a technical recession remains firmly on the table, while data also highlights the growing divergence between Eurozone countries, which will pose a challenge for politicians and central bankers alike going forward.

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – European and German February ZEW economic sentiment are seen to have declined at 57.0 and 59.4 respectively.

Wednesday – 17 February 2021

Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK inflation data for January is anticipated lower at 0.5% y/y, after it came in slightly warmer than expected in December, at 0.6% y/y, up from 0.3% in the month prior. Core inflation lifted to 1.4% y/y last time. Even this remains firmly below the BoE’s target, but the headline rate is likely to jump in March and April, when strong base effects kick-in on year-on-year price comparisons (caused by last years ‘mother’ of lockdowns).

Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 0.8% January retail sales headline bounce with a 0.9% ex-autos increase, following respective December decreases of -0.7% and -1.4%. A 5.4% bounce for the CPI gasoline index is seen, that should provide a boost to service station sales.

Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The CPI inflation expected to accelerate to a 1.0% y/y pace in January, after its decline to 0.7% y/y last month.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide further guidance for 2021.

Thursday – 18 February 2021

Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a negative employment report, with employment unchanged but unemployment to ticking up to 6.7% for January.

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 12:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, low-for-longer remains the main message of the ECB and that will likely be enforced this year by switching to a more symmetric inflation target, which would see the ECB letting inflation run above target for a while, following the prolonged period of below-target headline rates.

Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – Housing starts are expected to dip to a 1.600 mln pace from a 14-year high of 1.669 mln in December. Permits are expected to ease to 1.640 mln from a 14-year high of 1.704 mln in December. All the housing measures have rebounded sharply since Q2.

Friday – 19 February 2021

Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The Retail Sales are seen contracting at -1.0% m/m for January with the core higher at 0.8% from 0.4% m/m last month.

Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The Eurozone composite PMI was revised up in the final reading for January, at 47.8, while the headline remained firmly in contraction territory. The services reading was revised up to 45.4 from 45.0, but that still highlighted that the services sector is taking most of the hit from renewed lockdowns across Eurozone countries. Hence the preliminary February reading is expected lower again at 44.5, with manufacturing at 54.5 from 54.8 in January. Even though manufacturing continues to expand, this isn’t helping consumer sentiment. Overall, Germany may be the one that could escape another technical recession, but the Eurozone overall clearly is set for a renewed contraction in activity in Q1, after activity already dropped off in Q4 last year.

UK Services PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Like in the Eurozone, the weakness is mainly concentrated in the services sector, and the final services PMI came in at just 39.5, highlighting that the return of lockdown measures has hit the hospitality, high street retail and public transport sectors very hard.

Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 0.1% m/m December retail sales with a decline of the ex-autos measure to 0.3%, following November gains of 1.3% and 2.1% respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 16th February 2021.

Market Update – February 16.

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Market News Today

The stock rally continued overnight as sentiment remains underpinned by growing conviction that the vaccine rollout will boost the global recovery and as Asian markets are coming back from the extended weekend. China remains closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The JPN225 closed 1.3% higher above the 30000 mark, after trimming some gains following an FT story that China is considering limiting rare earth mineral supplies to US defence contractors, which rekindled concern over the future of US-China relations. This is a reminder that virus developments are not the only factor determining the world growth outlook.

Bond markets meanwhile remain under pressure as reflation trades unfold and the US 10-year rate jumped 2.3 bp to 1.23%. JGB rates are up 0.1 bp at 0.075%. GER30 and UK100 futures are marginally higher, underperforming versus US futures. US Treasury yields are at their highest since March. In FX markets, the USDIndex fell to a 3-week low while the USDJPY lifted to 105.54 amid broad pressure on the Yen, although the Dollar was lower against most other currencies. USOIL retraced to $59.90 from $60.95 – US boosted power demand but also threatened oil production in Texas. Crude markets are well into pre-pandemic ranges, yet global demand is not likely be restored to pre-pandemic levels for a considerable time.

Bitcoin flirts with breaking through the $50,000 barrier – 350% gains in the past 12 months.

Today – Data releases today focus on the second reading for Eurozone Q4 GDP, and German ZEW investor confidence for February. There is room for an upside surprise on the ZEW against the background of the global stock rally and strengthened confidence in the global recovery.

UserPostedImage

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.51%) Broke 3-year Resistance area 76-76.50 following a 3-month rally. Faster MAs however have retraced in the past 4 hours, confirming the pullback from 76.70 highs to 76.30, and are currently sideways, suggesting consolidation above the 20-hour SMA. MACD histogram & signal line lost some ground, with RSI at 57 and Stochastic sloping aggressively lower in line with the pullback. However only a break below the 20-hour SMA could suggest further decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 17th February 2021.

Stock stalled, Gold down, BTC up amid sell off in Treasuries!.

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Market News Today

The selloff in Treasuries deepened as the market returned from its long Presidents Day weekend. The stock rally started to run out of steam, while the selloff in bond markets continued. The bear steepener remained fully intact as the reflation trade and technicals gripped the market. 10-year Treasury yields reached levels last seen in February 2020 yesterday, before falling back -1.5 bp and settling around the 1.3% mark. Longer dated yields are at or near 1-year highs. But even when the full equity rally fizzled and the USA100 fell into the red, bond yields continued higher. A stronger than expected Empire State index also supported the bearish case in bonds.

JGB rates have lifted 2 bp to 0.094% and bonds also sold off in Australia and New Zealand, leaving rates more than 8 bp higher on the day. Meanwhile the JPN225 corrected -0.6%, despite an unexpected rebound in core machinery orders. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.04% and up 0.3% respectively, while US futures are posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia.

Equities have already come a long way and there may not be much appetite to push valuations out further at this point, but stimulus hopes and vaccine developments continue to fuel reflation trades and central bank efforts to try and slow the rise in yields by stressing that monetary policy will remain accommodative, risk fuelling a bubble in speculative assets that could come back to haunt markets further down the line.

In FX markets USDJPY dropped back to 105.96, amid a broadly higher yen, although the Dollar rose against most other currencies. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.19 per barrel. EURUSD dropped back to 1.2070, Cable to 1.3868. Bitcoin rose, again, through $50,000 as signs of big investor interest in the asset drive more and more buying. Gold prices extended losses for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, slipping to near 2-week lows as soaring US Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar dented the bullion’s appeal.

Today – Data releases today focus on US Retail sales and Canadian inflation for January, along with the FOMC minutes.

The FOMC minutes to the January 26, 27 policy meeting should underscore the Fed’s commitment to a lower for longer rate stance, with no intention of trimming QE. We know the meeting resulted in no change in policy and so the minutes will not break any new ground. Indeed, last week Chair Powell’s sombre outlook where he emphasized the need for ongoing support from monetary policy due to the pandemic was in keeping with the tweaks in the January policy statement. One such tweak was that the Fed’s acknowledgement that “the pace of the recovery in the economy and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.” We’ve also heard Fedspeak that the entire FOMC is generally on board with this posture, including allowing inflation to run hot for some time.

UserPostedImage

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.40%) extended losses below 20-DMA. Next Support remains at the 50-DMA at 71.60. MACD lines and RSI are neutral but still turning lower while intraday they are both negatively configured, with fast MAs sloping further lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 17th February 2021.

Stock stalled, Gold down, BTC up amid sell off in Treasuries!.

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Market News Today

The selloff in Treasuries deepened as the market returned from its long Presidents Day weekend. The stock rally started to run out of steam, while the selloff in bond markets continued. The bear steepener remained fully intact as the reflation trade and technicals gripped the market. 10-year Treasury yields reached levels last seen in February 2020 yesterday, before falling back -1.5 bp and settling around the 1.3% mark. Longer dated yields are at or near 1-year highs. But even when the full equity rally fizzled and the USA100 fell into the red, bond yields continued higher. A stronger than expected Empire State index also supported the bearish case in bonds.

JGB rates have lifted 2 bp to 0.094% and bonds also sold off in Australia and New Zealand, leaving rates more than 8 bp higher on the day. Meanwhile the JPN225 corrected -0.6%, despite an unexpected rebound in core machinery orders. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.04% and up 0.3% respectively, while US futures are posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia.

Equities have already come a long way and there may not be much appetite to push valuations out further at this point, but stimulus hopes and vaccine developments continue to fuel reflation trades and central bank efforts to try and slow the rise in yields by stressing that monetary policy will remain accommodative, risk fuelling a bubble in speculative assets that could come back to haunt markets further down the line.

In FX markets USDJPY dropped back to 105.96, amid a broadly higher yen, although the Dollar rose against most other currencies. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.19 per barrel. EURUSD dropped back to 1.2070, Cable to 1.3868. Bitcoin rose, again, through $50,000 as signs of big investor interest in the asset drive more and more buying. Gold prices extended losses for a fifth straight session on Wednesday, slipping to near 2-week lows as soaring US Treasury yields and a firmer Dollar dented the bullion’s appeal.

Today – Data releases today focus on US Retail sales and Canadian inflation for January, along with the FOMC minutes.

The FOMC minutes to the January 26, 27 policy meeting should underscore the Fed’s commitment to a lower for longer rate stance, with no intention of trimming QE. We know the meeting resulted in no change in policy and so the minutes will not break any new ground. Indeed, last week Chair Powell’s sombre outlook where he emphasized the need for ongoing support from monetary policy due to the pandemic was in keeping with the tweaks in the January policy statement. One such tweak was that the Fed’s acknowledgement that “the pace of the recovery in the economy and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.” We’ve also heard Fedspeak that the entire FOMC is generally on board with this posture, including allowing inflation to run hot for some time.

UserPostedImage

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.40%) extended losses below 20-DMA. Next Support remains at the 50-DMA at 71.60. MACD lines and RSI are neutral but still turning lower while intraday they are both negatively configured, with fast MAs sloping further lower.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 18th February 2021.

Dollar settled as commodities hit new highs.

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Both the US Dollar and US Treasury yields have settled off their respective highs, while global equity markets have come off the boil as investors take stock in the face of lofty valuations. The reflation trade remained alive and kicking in commodities, however, with copper and other base metals surging to fresh multi-year highs, buoyed by demand on Chinese exchanges, which reopened after their week long hiatus for the Lunar New Year holiday. USOIL prices also clocked a new 13-month peak.

A Reuters article highlighted a laboratory study showing that the Pfizer vaccine was less effective against the South African variant of SARS-Cov2, which may have been a contributory factor behind the more risk-cautious sentiment in stock markets, although evidently this story had little impact in the commodity realm. Some scientists have been welcoming the similarities in the various ‘successful’ mutations of the coronavirus — that is those variants that have become dominant out of the thousands of mutations — as it suggests that the only way the virus is successfully mutating is to more transmissible versions, as seen the South African, Brazilian and UK variants, rather than to a more deadly version of itself. There is also confidence that existing vaccines can also be relatively easily tweaked to deal these variants, too. In currency markets today, ranges have been narrow so far.

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The USDIndex has seen a less than 10 pip range, holding just below the 91.00 level. EURUSD has been similarly unambitious in directional terms, plying a narrow path above yesterday’s 10-day low at 1.2023. Cable has recouped to levels above 1.3900 after trading under 1.3850 yesterday. The 34-month peak seen on Tuesday is at 1.3951. At the same time, the Pound has posted a fresh 10-month high against the Euro, and has lifted against the Yen and other currencies.

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This continues the moderate outperforming bias the Pound has been exhibiting on the year so far, since the UK completed Brexit by leaving its transition membership of the EU’s common market and customs union. News earlier this week that the UK government reached, ahead of schedule, its target to vaccinate the most vulnerable groups against Covid have given markets reason to be bullish on Sterling, which is amid what could be described as a crawl out of historically weak trade-weighted valuations with four-and-a-half years of Brexit uncertainty having finally come to an end. Only Israel and the UAE have vaccinated faster than the UK, and the contrast with the situation in the EU has been mooted lately in market narratives as being a bearish factor for EURGBP. Prime Minister Johnson will be laying out a road map for reopening next Monday. This should keep the Pound broadly underpinned.

A modicum of yen outperformance has seen USDJPY ebb to a 2-day low at 105.69. The pair remains up by just over 2.5% on the year-to-date, corresponding with the pronounced widening in US Treasury over JGB yield differentials, which in the case of the 10-year benchmarks has been more than 35bp over this period. Yen crosses, which have recently been trading at either multi-month or multi-year highs, also tipped lower. In the cryptocurrency realm, Bitcoin rallied to yet another record, this time above $52,500, amid increasing signs that the asset class, which is essentially a digital version of a precious metal (limited supply and no yield, although with the added benefit of no storage costs), is becoming accepted by institutional investors.

UserPostedImage

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
HFblogNews
  • Posts: 1472
  • Joined: 28/05/2017
Date : 22nd February 2021.

Markets Update – February 22 – It’s all about the Yields.

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Market News Today

Equities heavy as Yields, Copper and VIX soar. USD recovers from lows; safe haven JPY & CHF suffer. US10yr yields touched 1.38% (now 1.345%), Equities closed down on Friday and for the week, FUTS now into 5th day lower. Reflation trade & progress in vaccination worldwide, especially in developed economies, helps commodity currencies & boosts sentiment for riskier assets. Commodities lifted (especially Copper) – except Gold ($1790) which appears to be losing its inflation hedge status to BTC, (new ATHs over $57K). VIX FUTS up 4.4% to 25.80.

This week – RBNZ rate decision, Progress on stimulus 1.9tn stimulus package, US GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, PCE & Powell testimony. Earnings season continues (392 of S&P500 reported – 80% have beat estimates)

Today – German IFO, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bowman. UK PM Johnson to outline lockdown exit plans for England. Earnings from Marathon Oil & Occidental Petroleum.

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Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.34%) Rallied from 200MA on Friday (0.8940) Over 20 Ma Friday over R1 and R2 today – moving to test 0.9000 Faster MA’s aligned and trending higher, RSI 72 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and broke over 0 line on open today. Stochs. very OB and touching 100. H1 ATR 0.0009 Daily ATR 0.0080.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE  to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE  to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news. 

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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