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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 14, 2019

Given the volatility in the markets, the decline of the common currency markets is nothing compared to the volatility across the markets. Risky assets rose after Trump announced postponing the imposition of 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Nonetheless, the euro major pair keeps in range over a week.

The GDP growth dropped by 0.1% in the second quarter, meeting analysts’ expectations. However, this does affect much the rate. Data from Europe came out softer than anticipated, which resulted in the EUR/USD pair to ease lower.

It seems that the short-term trading of the EUR/USD pair is headed downward after several attempts on the resistance above.

Meanwhile, let us take into consideration a reversal candlestick on the weekly chart after a rally last week. This trend keeps purchases on a decline.

The pair is trading between the 100- and 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. Yet, the range remains strong even if it slightly weakened. A horizontal level is found close to the 100-MA at 1.1155. The horizontal level acted as a resistance before and a slight confluence was formed.

There is still a strong level around 1.1118, which was tested several times this year. If the pair is able to move lower, this level plays strongly for a decline. Yet, even if there are fundamental news that affects the market, the euro major pair manages to remain in range. Meanwhile, dips can still be bought considering the reversal pattern on the weekly chart.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 137
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 16, 2019

A bullish morning star pattern was seen after the surge of the EUR/USD pair last week. Yet, the significant support level of 1.1118 is not yet established, which means that the bears can be in control of the movement. This area is important as this held various declines for this aside from a short drop below in latter days of July.

On Thursday, US economic data was released that shows better than forecast that supports the US dollar. Retail sales grew by 0.7% in July, more than the 0.3% forecast of an increase. This excludes the automobile and gas, which then prompted the data to increase by 1.0%.

Trade balance from Eurostat is also to be released soon. Also, there is the consumer sentiment and building permits from the United States. Although, there are not likely to keep the impact on the exchange rate.

The significant level of EUR/USD pair was broken and there will also be not many purchases. Moreover, the pair begins to enter the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart.

The support level is around the area of 1.1075, which makes the lowest close on a daily basis for the year. Moving forward, the next probable target is around 1.1027, which was the August low.

It is not likely for the pair to break again for another fresh yearly low today, considering few expected fundamental events on the economic calendar.

Closing of the pair today is relevant. If the pair manages to keep the current levels, there will be a reverse bullish trend of last week’s reversal pattern. More importantly, this will confirm the resumption of the EUR/USD downtrend.

The overall momentum of the EUR/USD pair is downward, although the pair begins to oversell on the 4-hour chart. In comparison to a basket of major currency pairs, the common currency is likely to have its biggest loss. Yet, even if there is a light economic schedule, the news may induce some volatility in the pair.
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KostiaForexMart
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  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 20, 2019

The euro major pair faces pressure for the whole week but still, the dollar strengthened as the DXY index rises higher than the resistance. It was able to close higher than 98.25 daily level, which was the same level that kept the price lower in April and May and almost close to the two-year high.

Although the decline is not purely because of the EUR/USD pair as the euro is pressured against major currencies over the past week. Market's attention will then shift to the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. For now, there is the PPI from Germany which is expected to come out higher than the forecast.

The levels of 1.1075 (upper) and 1.1118 (lower) were important yesterday. The previous level was kept as sellers entered the market prior to reaching the latter level, which also limited the recovery. The price movement shows weakness, especially in an attempt to test again the support level today.

Moreover, it is important to see how far the pair can go and if it will reach a fresh new yearly low prior to the Fed meeting tomorrow. Thus, it may not be wise to push the price lower in the current condition.

At a later session, we can expect resistance to continue around 1.1118 amid a rally. It needs to reach the level higher in changing the short-term direction of the pair.

A breakdown at 1.1075 opens the yearly low at 1.1027. If it successfully moves lower than 1.1027 today, then we might encounter some stops. In spite of that, the pair might have a difficult time to break the level and keep the flow without a specific driver to cause such movement.

There are not many events to look out for in the economic calendar prior to the expected Fed meeting on Wednesday.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 22, 2019

In the beginning, the market reaction induced volatility. However, the euro major pair kept the pair in range and was ahead for the week. At the same time, the future markets have revised lower their expectations for further reduction. Although, they have already priced in another cut in September.

The result of PMI data has kept strong bidding at the beginning of Thursday trading. Other data including the Manufacturing and Services PMI figure of France, Germany, and the Eurozone came out better than expected by analysts.

The euro major pair rallied upward outside its most recent range amid the release of data and prior to losing a bit of its strength.

In the technical analysis, the EUR/USD support level is at 1.1074, which was the lowest daily close in 2019. Also, the US dollar index (DXY) begins to pull back from the resistance level of 98.25.

If the pair keeps the price higher than the support level, then there is a higher chance for recovery. However, a break above the 1.1118 mark could confirm the recovery of the pair, which was a horizontal level that drops slightly higher than the range high.

Looking at the fundamental news, the ECB will release the Fed minutes today, particularly the PMI figure. Aside from that, the symposium at Jackson Hole will begin today for three days.

Hence, the euro major pair will likely trade range-bound but various events could affect the pair and induce a breakout, especially with the Jackson hole symposium.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 137
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 27, 2019

The Friday rally of the EUR/USD pair was a result of various events, which means that it is just not solely because of concerns in trade war. Soon after, this has changed as President Trump mentioned trade talks are still ongoing.

The common currency faces various risks and has had fluctuations amid the recent shift. Although, this may not be apparent compared to other currency pairs. Trump’s recent comments regarding a phone call between the two nations will likely have an impact on the session ahead.

German GDP data showed a drop by 0.1% in the second quarter as expected. The common currency was not affected after the release of data.

Another data from France came out, particularly the consumer confidence reaching an 18-month high. In the afternoon, data from the US is anticipated to be released.

The euro major pair was found to have a significant confluence of the support with both 50- and 20-MA on the 4-hour chart.

For now, the euro major pair is trying to recover from a sharp decline on Monday. It looks like the support level will be found at this level. Meanwhile, the initial resistance level is at 1.1118, which kept the pair lower on Friday.
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KostiaForexMart
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  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 28, 2019

On Friday, the common currency surged on Friday due to concerns of a trade war. Comments of Trump also caused the recovery of the gains for the pair. Although the appetite for risk has diminished as investors reacted to the comment of Trump. The S&P 500 also met some resistance and acquired a few losses yesterday.

Other data such as the consumer confidence from the US yesterday and from Germany earlier this day came out positively that drove yesterday’s trading. Although it seems that the euro major pair is losing momentum. Furthermore, the buyers didn’t get to keep the keep from going down at 1.1100 that may mean weakening of the pair.

There are few economic data that may bring volatility in trading, especially with the upcoming GDP data from the US and Germany tomorrow.

It may be worrisome for EUR/USD bulls that the price did not stay above the level of 1.1100 on Tuesday. This will likely push the pair higher that may mean an upward turn for the pair.

The next downward target will likely be around 1.1075 but there are some hints of exhaustion and the pair will likely move sideways between the European and US session and then breaking slightly lower in the afternoon trading. An important resistance will likely be around 1.1100.

Although, it looks like volatility is moving sluggish but may be influenced by the Sino-US trade war. With the important data from Germany and US expected on Thursday, this could induce volatility and could mean a significant move of the pair.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 29, 2019

Since the North American session yesterday, the euro major pair has been trading sideways and may even have a bigger move with the upcoming significant data.

Concerns on trade wars weren’t as prominent anymore after the recent comment of Trump that both nations are willing to work out the deal. Equity markets are faced with a strong bid in early trading today and countered the decline of the S&P 500 last week. Nonetheless, the euro major pair has had fewer fluctuations with the recent risk sentiment since the return of risk appetite.

The support level at 1.1075 keeps the pair to go higher after several attempts of testing in this month. There may also be a slight bounce from here but in general, sellers are leading this week. Although, we cannot see any turn for now.

Any attempt to rise was limited at the level of 1.1100. Alternately, in case of a decline, the pair is likely to recover.

Moreover, the dollar index (DXY) has also met some sort of resistance. The last figure tested is the level of 98.25 that kept the price lower in April and May. Consequently, the index pulled back by more than 1%. Hence, the dollar and the euro major pair have a likelihood for a slight decline but do far, we can see any technical movement to support this.

There has been volatility and the pair has been trading range-bound. Important fundamental, particularly the US GDP and German CPI, are anticipated and will determine the movement of the EUR/USD pair.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 2, 2019

This week might start with slow trading given the US Labor day. Volatility will probably rise in the latter days of the week, especially with the upcoming US jobs data on Friday and Fed speech.

Also, the progress on the Sino-US trade war will still have an effect on the exchange rate. Jus in the previous week, Trump said that the two nations will proceed with the trade talks, which induced a shift in the markets. In turn, this resulted in a decline in the euro major pair.

The economic data in the eurozone has actually met expectations of analysts, except for the decrease in the manufacturing sector. Overall, reports from Italy, Germany, and the eurozone are declining in the market. Meanwhile, France showed growth in August but data will remain to be a concern for the euro economy.

The decline of the EUR/USD pair on Friday is important as it pushes the rate to a record low over a year. Also, the pair dropped lower than 1.1000 that have an impact on the pair. It seems that the pair proceeds with a decline with the next important support level at 1.0833.

It can be said that the trading rate is slightly oversold present levels. Sometimes, unexpected volatility drove the pair unexpectedly at the end of the month, which is the probable reason for the decline last week.

If the price proceeds with the recovery, sellers will probably touch on the level of 1.1100. HIgher than that is where the resistance is found at 1.1030, which was previously support.

In general, the euro major pair is moving sideways following a drastic drop on Friday. Moreover, volatility will likely be slow with the present US holiday but attempts for recovery will be blocked by sellers around 1.1000 then towards 1.1030.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 137
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 3, 2019

Price movement in the EUR/USD pair is intriguing as it recovered instead of a breakdown, which is unexpected by traders and oftentimes occur much later and outside the range.

We cannot be so sure that this would not be the case, although this is possible. One scenario is the oversold state of the EUR/USD pair for a while now. While trading in a range, this gives a signal for the possibility of a pullback. However, the pair is likely to move in the oversold zone for some time.

With the euro declining against other bearish currencies, it will be not ideal to search for a pullback towards the medial levels, which was the case last year. The common currency also trades against the lows of the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. As for the case of the sterling pound, it is still pressured with the ongoing Brexit negotiation.

I assume that it is highly likely for the attempts for recovery to be faced by the sellers instead of a pullback. We can wait for the resistance to reach at 1.0979 and then a bounce to 1.0911. Nonetheless, no purchases at the present descending motion signals for a technical breakdown but sustained break to 1.1050 opposes a breakout.
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KostiaForexMart
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  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 4, 2019

Yesterday, the main level above is at 1.1050. A sustained downward trend from the seller would confirm the descend.

The short-term momentum is leaning to the upside. Yesterday, The currency pair showed a bullish candle on the daily chart, which we should look into. In case the pair closes around 1.100 by the end of the day, this will signal further upward movement in the short-term.

It seems that the recovery of the major British pound adds pressure to the US dollar that overshadows the EUR/USD pair. Although, we must also keep in mind that the volatility of Sterling can rise by the end of the week amid the political uncertainty with Brexit.

Overall, the euro major pair shows a strong uptrend after yesterday’s low. For short-term, it is bullish but extending it a bit shows a bearish outlook. In the meantime, sellers could make use of the recovery.
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KostiaForexMart
  • Posts: 137
  • Joined: 22/03/2019
EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 5, 2019

Today, ADP data from the US will be published, which will give an initial outlook on the current state of the job market in August. Other than that, some PMI data will be released during the North American session that can also induce volatility. So far, analysts anticipate a continuous growth for the reports. Important talks will take place in early October.

On Friday, data on Non-Farm Payroll is scheduled and this will have a bigger impact on the market. Of course, concerns on China-US trade war will still affect the price movement as well.

The rally yesterday continued and formed a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Overall, the technical outlook shows a breakdown, which is contradicting to the bullish indicator.

The direction of the pair in the major resistance level will be relative to the reaction of the market in the current price movement. Important psychological levels are 1.1033 and 1.1053, which shows important support to the pair in August that can become an obstacle for the price to rise.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 6, 2019

So far, the euro is moving lower after publishing the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which would weigh on Fed’s decision regarding the interest rate in September. Furthermore, this would reflect the stability of the economy.

The main trend is descending on the daily chart. However, the momentum shows its movement rising since the price reversal bottom formed at 1.0926 on September 3.

A breakthrough to 1.1164 could shift the trend higher. However, if it moves towards 1.0926 instead, then this will oppose the closing price reversal boot and indicate the continuation of a downward trend.

The main range between 1.1164 and 1.0926 with the retracement zone at 1.1045 to 1.1073 offering as a resistance. This limits the short-term movement of the EUR/USD pair. Buyers could test the short-term range at 1.0926-1.1085 in hopes to reach for a much higher bottom with the retracement zone at 1.1005 to 1.0987 as the probable support.

Today’s price movement will depend on the reaction of traders at the price range of 1.1045-1.1046 and currently, the price is at 1.1029.

If the price remains below the 1.1045, this would mean the presence of sellers and could push the short-term price by 50% at 1.1005 with the next support around 1.0987 to 1.0986. However, moving past the area of 1.0985 would cause the pair to descend around 1.0956 and 1.0941 before the main bottom of 1.0926.

On the other hand, a price movement higher than 1.1046 would indicate the presence of buyers and could bring the price upward with the next target at 1.1073 to 1.1074 and then to 1.1085. It could further rise to 1.1119, which is a potential pint for upward movement.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 26, 2019

After a sharp increase of the Dollar on Wednesday trading, the price slides down and moving close to a significant support level.

The horizontal support level is at 1.0930 kept the pair higher for two times this month and every test will result in a rally towards the area of 1.10. If the pair breaks down, it could reach a new 28-month low.

News on Trump’s impeachment did not keep the dollar from rising as if the markets aren’t affected at all. Meanwhile, the latest US GDP data will be published today and the forecast expects a 2% growth in the second quarter. A speech from the ECB president Mario Draghi could induce some volatility when considering the monetary policy of the economy.

The euro major pair will likely have a breakout to a new multi-year low but the question now is whether the decline will continue. So far, the pair trades range-bound most of the month and begin to be a bit oversold on short-term timeframes.

For this year, most of the time the price has been fluctuating between declining and dropping into a range. Hence, I would be a bit cautious to see if this will be a full-blow breakdown.

If the price rises in the next session, sellers will try to defend the level of 1.0966, which has been the lowest daily close in the first half of the month.

The pair trades close to the level of 1.0930 during the North American trading session today should also be noted. If the pair stays higher, we can expect a slight bounce of the pair.

On the contrary, the price will likely have stops accumulated below the level of 1.0930 as traders look for a double bottom potential. Therefore, the price can have dipped below and may induce stops. The resistance of 1.0966 keeps recovery rallies the upcoming trading session.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 27, 2019

The US dollar index that measures the value of the greenback against a basket of major currencies is now about to break a 28-month high. Meanwhile, the euro major pair has broken to an equivalent low that seems to lead to further losses.

So far, only the New Zealand dollar has taken the lead against the greenback while the British pound has been the weakest for this week as it went down by 1.5% against the dollar.

Data releases from Europe similar to inflation came in weaker than anticipated earlier today. The German import price dropped by 0.6% in August compared to the previous 0.3%. Also, the CPI in France has declined by 0.3% in the present month. As for Consumer spending, it was flat and did not meet the expectations of analysts.

Economic data to be released later this day will include the US durable goods orders and personal spending figure. The data will typically not induce a volatile reaction in the trading rate.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: September 30, 2019

The EUR/USD pair hasn’t fallen this low since May 2017 as the dollar takes the lead. The pair broke lower at the support level of 1.0930 that could induce a breakout, although, the pair was able to return back above the level. However, the pair has moved back and forth that makes it uncertain whether that pair can have a full breakdown.

A driver is needed for a stronger decline but given the economic calendar for the week, it will likely be a political one. The main focus of economic release for the week is the US jobs report that is to be released on Friday.

The euro major pair rose higher than the major level of 1.0930, which kept the price from declining at the beginning and near the middle of the month. Its recovery raises the question on its resumption of decline but for now, the pair moves strongly downward.

A breakout above the resistance may reason limit the descent of the pair. As of now, the resistance level is seen at 1.0966. The upward movement of the pair resides close to the level that forms a slight confluence.

A breakdown to 1.0930 would attract more sellers. Hence, the initial support level is close to the area of 1.0900, which buyers defended late last week. With the upcoming US jobs report, the volatility will increase in the late week. On the headlines, news on the impeachment of Trump continues.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: November 05, 2019

The dollar received significant support after the release of Friday data from the US. Labor market statistics exceeded all expectations of market players, which eased concerns about the upcoming recession in the United States. In October, the number of new jobs increased to 128 thousand, while experts predicted growth to just 85 thousand. The ISM business activity index also recovered slightly (48.3 points in October against 47.8 in September).

This week is not rich in macroeconomic data, but today the ISM Service Sector Index can attract attention (at 18:00 Moscow time). If the indicators are at quite stable levels, this may support the dollar in the coming days.

Thus, the EUR/USD pair fell on Tuesday to the level of 1.1125. The dollar feels confident, therefore, during the day, the strengthening of the US currency will continue. The main goal of the dollar “bulls” is the 1.1100 area.
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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. November 06, 2019 – Dollar will continue growing to the area of 1.1050

Positive news from the front of trade talks between the US and China is supporting the whole range of risky assets. As a result the EUR/USD pair suspended its decline in the area of ​​1.1050 and began to grow to 1.1100. However, the correction of the euro will not be long as the US currency continues to remain strong. During the day, we expect the return of euro quotes to the area of ​​1.1050.

The day before the US dollar got significant support from the publication of US data: the ISM index in the non-manufacturing sector grew up to 54.7 points against expectations the indicator at the level of 53.5 points. Moreover, the dollar receives additional support from the comments of the Fed representatives, signaling the likely completion of a cycle of rate cuts in the United States.

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KostiaForexMart
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EUR/USD. November 07, 2019 – The positive news on trade talks support the euro

The full range of risky assets received support against the rise of the the news that the US and China agreed on the mutual abolition of duties on part of imported goods. This was stated today by representatives of Chinese Ministry of Commerce, which also noted that further actions of USA and PRC will depend on success in concluding a comprehensive trade deal. As a result, the pair managed to recover from the level of 1.1050 to the level of 1.1090.

However, market players doubt that global trade disagreements between the two largest economies in the world can be resolved at once by signing a nominal deal. Therefore, the risks of further problems in relations between the two countries are still high, and optimism about the success of trade debates may turn out to be short-lived.

Thus, during the day the EUR/USD pair will moderately grow to the level of 1.11.
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KostiaForexMart
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GBP/USD. November 08, 2019 – Pound consolidates near 1.28

The British sterling fell to a two-week low at 1.2800. Yesterday the Bank of England kept the key rate unchanged at 0.75%, although two out of nine members of the Committee voted for an immediate reduction in the rate by 25 bp. This results surprised markets, as it was the first split of opinions for the last year. At the same time, the Central Bank lowered its GDP forecast for 2020 and 2021 and the short-term forecast for inflation. According to these forecasts, the regulator suggests only one reduction in interest rates over the next 3 years.

Representatives of the British regulator are concerned about the weak labor market in the country, the slowdown in the global economy, as well as further uncertainty concerning the Brexit issue. Thus, the pair pound/dollar shows a decline below the area of ​​1.28 and keeps here in a stable flat. During the day, we expect further weakening of the British currency.
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KostiaForexMart
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USD/CAD. November 11, 2019 – Canadian dollar weakens after labor market data

The USD/CAD pair managed to gain a foothold above 1.3200 after the release of weak data on the labor market in Canada, which turned out to be much worse than analysts' forecasts. Experts expected that employment growth would slow from 53 thousand to 15, but current data showed an unexpected decrease in the number of jobs by 1.8 thousand.

Despite the fact that the growth in average wages accelerated, Friday's data reflected the weakness of the Canadian labor market and increased the likelihood of an interest rate reduction by the Bank of Canada by the end of this year.

Against this background, the USD/CAD pair rose to the level of 1.3225 and continue to consolidate in this area at the beginning of the week. Today we expect further moderate growth of the US dollar to 1.3250.
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